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View Full Version : HLG - Hallenstein Glasson



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see weed
08-09-2021, 10:30 AM
trade went to crap


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SX8nicMsUN0
Sorry bull. I just saw the funny side of it......One step ahead of the herd. No offence I hope.

Getty
08-09-2021, 10:40 AM
trade went to crap


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SX8nicMsUN0

Wholesale recycling.

Cut out the middleman...

Old mate
08-09-2021, 11:23 AM
At the zoo:p. Be aclassic explaining that one to the kids.:t_up:

FatTed
08-09-2021, 12:50 PM
Are these numbers a percentage of the eligible population ie over the age of 12? If so that means the highest one could go is 80% which we know is not enough. All unvaccinated kids have a 10X chance of catching Delta and passing it on to their grandparents who even if they are vaccinated may well become very ill.

current estimates for DOUBLE vaccination in Australia (countrywide):

70% by Oct 30
80% by Nov 17
90% by Dec 4

however NSW & VIC are currently vaccinating faster than the Australian nationwide rate, so should reach those milestones faster.

winner69
10-09-2021, 11:09 AM
NZ Electronic Card spend for August month

Lock down impact retail sales down 20% on July (sa)

But punters don't buy clothes during lock down - apparel down 40.7 percent.

JUST AS WELL WE ALWAYS GET GET A HUGE SURGE POST LOCK DOWN

My guess Auckland in Level 4 to Sunday Sept 19 and then the clamour and despondency will see Government taking it down to Level 3 for a week or so - that's September gone for retailers

Waltzing
10-09-2021, 11:28 AM
Winner(n) the malls retailers will be hopefully overrun in 2 weeks time at level 1 rest of country. Interesting that Cafes in CH were over run by older wealthy Ravers ignoring rules... must have all been vaccinated!

850man
10-09-2021, 11:49 AM
NZ Electronic Card spend for August month

Lock down impact retail sales down 20% on July (sa)

But punters don't buy clothes during lock down - apparel down 40.7 percent.

JUST AS WELL WE ALWAYS GET GET A HUGE SURGE POST LOCK DOWN

My guess Auckland in Level 4 to Sunday Sept 19 and then the clamour and despondency will see Government taking it down to Level 3 for a week or so - that's September gone for retailers

Maybe seasonal too, winter has gone, summer is around the corner. Looking for a nice upturn in sales in Oct / Nov as people equip themselves for summer

winner69
15-09-2021, 08:48 AM
Freedom coming and lockdowns to end saw Ozzie Consumer confidence jumped by 3.1 per cent last week – the most in 22 weeks – to a two-month high. Sentiment in Sydney rebounded by 10.6 per cent as the NSW government released its ‘roadmap’ out of lockdown with hopes for an easing of restrictions in October. And despite increasing Covid-19 case numbers in Melbourne, confidence lifted by 6.2 per cent in Victoria as restrictions were wound-back in regional parts of the state. But sentiment deteriorated in Queensland (down 3.2 per cent) as new virus cases emerged.(from Bull.com)

Consumers getting happy where it matters

All good for Glassons over the Tasman

Go HLG

winner69
15-09-2021, 08:52 AM
A $ worth of profit in Australia might be worth in $ in NZ after translation soon the way the AUD.NZD is going

BlackPeter
15-09-2021, 10:30 AM
Freedom coming and lockdowns to end saw Ozzie Consumer confidence jumped by 3.1 per cent last week – the most in 22 weeks – to a two-month high. Sentiment in Sydney rebounded by 10.6 per cent as the NSW government released its ‘roadmap’ out of lockdown with hopes for an easing of restrictions in October. And despite increasing Covid-19 case numbers in Melbourne, confidence lifted by 6.2 per cent in Victoria as restrictions were wound-back in regional parts of the state. But sentiment deteriorated in Queensland (down 3.2 per cent) as new virus cases emerged.(from Bull.com)

Consumers getting happy where it matters

All good for Glassons over the Tasman

Go HLG

Sounds like consumers might be ready for warming up towards a Christmas buying spree ... which will be good for HLG. Of course only, if they managed to secure enough stock early enough to avoid the surcharges of the transport companies ...

winner69
15-09-2021, 10:42 AM
Sounds like consumers might be ready for warming up towards a Christmas buying spree ... which will be good for HLG. Of course only, if they managed to secure enough stock early enough to avoid the surcharges of the transport companies ...

Don’t be so down on HLG ….. they will have plenty of stock toget through the summer season

Masters of the supply chain

Beagle
15-09-2021, 10:46 AM
Don’t be so down on HLG ….. they will have plenty of stock toget through the summer season

Masters of the supply chain

N.Z.'s oldest listed company has learned to cope with all sorts of challenges over many, many decades eh. We saw yesterday how the master of homeware goods, Rod Duke is dealing with supply chain issues, and soon we will see how the masters of the apparel trade will deal with the same issue very well.

Waltzing
15-09-2021, 11:42 AM
very stable last 6 months... if it does a big downward move it will be yet another "chase" to trade the later upswing.... yet again.

winner69
15-09-2021, 05:26 PM
Jeez, close under 7 bucks

Hope next weeks announcement is a bonza ……else we might see sub 6 bucks

nztx
15-09-2021, 05:47 PM
Jeez, close under 7 bucks

Hope next weeks announcement is a bonza ……else we might see sub 6 bucks


Time to count the empty available trucks - you reckon ? ;)

Not much volume in this slide - just over 30K across the line

probably still a lot of 'in the money' happy campers out there in for the long haul :)

Beagle
15-09-2021, 06:33 PM
VWAP today was $7.09. Does it really matter that a few tiny minnow holders spat the dummy at the close...

winner69
15-09-2021, 06:34 PM
VWAP today was $7.09. Does it really matter that a few tiny minnow holders spat the dummy at the close...

Chart looks sad though ….falling through 7 bucks

Balance
15-09-2021, 06:48 PM
Chart looks sad though ….falling through 7 bucks

Can’t believe you guys are still in the stock!

winner69
15-09-2021, 06:54 PM
Got it wrong.

NZ Herald report

Following its strong half-year result, in which revenue grew 22.6 per cent, Briscoe Group rose 23c or 3.28 per cent to $7.24, surpassing its previous high of $7.01. Other retail stocks Hallenstein Glasson increased 17c or 2.39 per cent to $6.95, and Michael Hill International gained 2c or 2.33 per cent to 88c.

No worries

Balance
15-09-2021, 07:25 PM
Got it wrong.

NZ Herald report

Following its strong half-year result, in which revenue grew 22.6 per cent, Briscoe Group rose 23c or 3.28 per cent to $7.24, surpassing its previous high of $7.01. Other retail stocks Hallenstein Glasson increased 17c or 2.39 per cent to $6.95, and Michael Hill International gained 2c or 2.33 per cent to 88c.

No worries

And there are people and posters who rely on the media for information!?

Scary!

Waltzing
15-09-2021, 08:28 PM
"else we might see sub 6 bucks"

well that is expected isnt it. Some stocks repeat themselves.

nztx
16-09-2021, 08:15 PM
"else we might see sub 6 bucks"

well that is expected isnt it. Some stocks repeat themselves.


sounds like heading towards 'time to stock up' again to me ;)

Waltzing
16-09-2021, 08:48 PM
Except GDP for the period was up as was retail. The only hope is that AUSS was a total wipe out (rip curl speak) just like china was with there lock down recently.

nztx
16-09-2021, 09:30 PM
Except GDP for the period was up as was retail. The only hope is that AUSS was a total wipe out (rip curl speak) just like china was with there lock down recently.


KMD appear to be OK (they acquired A Ripper of a Curl from memory)

HLG's fortunes I would expect to look better than KMD's ;)

BGP have/had a KMD holding (when I looked last around 10% of KMD) if they still have it & no black marks
on that holding for BGP visible so far ..

Waltzing
16-09-2021, 09:48 PM
yes have to say NZ'ers turning into world class shoppers...:t_up:

nztx
16-09-2021, 09:52 PM
yes have to say NZ'ers turning into world class shoppers...:t_up:


No complaints with HLG nailing down some of the cobbers over the way for their retail pingers ;)

Waltzing
16-09-2021, 09:58 PM
Retail NZ is a performer..

nztx
16-09-2021, 10:13 PM
Retail NZ is a performer..



there appears to still be a small bunch of morons hiding in a building in Wellington who haven't woken up to the facts yet
and probably wont until the landscape shows more signs of withering & extinction from their prescribed lockdowns ;)

HLG has fortunately some insulation when confronted by such market irritations in one or another or more jurisdictions .. ;)

winner69
17-09-2021, 03:11 PM
Helped the cause today …bought 5 t shirts for 44 bucks

Cool eh

sb9
17-09-2021, 03:29 PM
Helped the cause today …bought 5 t shirts for 44 bucks

Cool eh

That's dirt cheap, good score..

Waltzing
17-09-2021, 07:23 PM
HLG fighting back today Briscoes a bit disappointing.

neck and neck ... surely Briscoes will win.

nztx
17-09-2021, 08:04 PM
HLG fighting back today Briscoes a bit disappointing.

neck and neck ... surely Briscoes will win.


I don't know about that - a lot depends on what HLG come up with in a week or so's time :)

winner69
17-09-2021, 08:09 PM
I don't know about that - a lot depends on what HLG come up with in a week or so's time :)

HLG 10 bucks or 5 bucks

Beagle
17-09-2021, 08:37 PM
HLG = Heaps Loving Goodness.

Waltzing
17-09-2021, 08:48 PM
"HLG 10 bucks or 5 bucks"

either is good.

bull....
21-09-2021, 03:50 PM
cant be good for hlg the news ffrom kmd today

Kathmandu Holdings says Covid-19 lockdowns are shaving up to $10 million a week off its profits, and the impact is worse than last year with 42 per cent of its store network closed

“It is actually worse than last year because Auckland only had a two-week period last year, and we have got Victoria and New South Wales where last time it was just basically Victoria, so the lockdown period for the first quarter is worse,” Kathmandu chief financial officer Chris Kinraid said on a conference call

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/126433773/kathmandu-warns-firsthalf-profit-will-fall-as-lockdowns-hurt

Waltzing
21-09-2021, 04:14 PM
market might look through this though.

nztx
21-09-2021, 06:14 PM
cant be good for hlg the news ffrom kmd today

Kathmandu Holdings says Covid-19 lockdowns are shaving up to $10 million a week off its profits, and the impact is worse than last year with 42 per cent of its store network closed

“It is actually worse than last year because Auckland only had a two-week period last year, and we have got Victoria and New South Wales where last time it was just basically Victoria, so the lockdown period for the first quarter is worse,” Kathmandu chief financial officer Chris Kinraid said on a conference call

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/126433773/kathmandu-warns-firsthalf-profit-will-fall-as-lockdowns-hurt



some effects of this weighing in on the BGP SP, which closed = to HLG ? ;)

Balance
21-09-2021, 06:17 PM
some effects of this weighing in on the BGP SP, which closed = to HLG ? ;)

Bull doing his usual down ramping - zero integrity & sincerity in his postings.

Greekwatchdog
21-09-2021, 06:35 PM
I just don't see how he can compare BGR to HLG. What a *******. Greek term starts with M end A.

Beagle
21-09-2021, 06:43 PM
HLG will be reporting soon, (was 25 September last year). Hopefully they will be taking all the financial support they can get from both the Aust and N.Z. Govt's like they did last year and keep it, (my feelings and reasons why I think this is entirely appropriate have already been thoroughly articulated and I'm not going to debate the issue any further). I only mention it again as I think its now a material factor in supporting FY22's earnings.

The have an excellent website and extensive marketing through social media and I feel on a "lock through to opening up in 2022 DCF basis" they are currently fair value at about $7 so I am happy to continue to hold a reasonable sized stake for its excellent dividend yield.

nztx
21-09-2021, 06:59 PM
I just don't see how he can compare BGR to HLG. What a *******. Greek term starts with M end A.


You forgotten that BGP hold a sizeable minority stake in KMD - Greek ? ;)

The point was - maybe KMD's reported fortunes (ie $10 mill Profit being lost each lockdown week by KMD)
could start showing through in BGP's SP .. it wasn't a direct comparison between the two - BGP & HLG ;)

Those KMD shares wont stay up in terms of SP with extended Losses being sustained on both side of the Tasman
will they ?

BGP fair value their KMD stake each time they report I believe

nztx
21-09-2021, 07:01 PM
HLG will be reporting soon, (was 25 September last year). Hopefully they will be taking all the financial support they can get from both the Aust and N.Z. Govt's like they did last year and keep it, (my feelings and reasons why I think this is entirely appropriate have already been thoroughly articulated and I'm not going to debate the issue any further). I only mention it again as I think its now a material factor in supporting FY22's earnings.

The have an excellent website and extensive marketing through social media and I feel on a "lock through to opening up in 2022 DCF basis" they are currently fair value at about $7 so I am happy to continue to hold a reasonable sized stake for its excellent dividend yield.


Similar view here too .. HLG are very astute operators with a long track impressive record in their game :)

winner69
22-09-2021, 08:42 AM
No news/updates from HLG before results announcement is good news

Full year about $36m/$37m my calculated guess

see weed
22-09-2021, 04:19 PM
I just pushed sp up to $7. Watching hlg depth is like watching grass grow. Started at 6.97 to 6.98, to 6.99, to $7 in about 5 min., can't be bothered waiting all day for order to go through.

Balance
23-09-2021, 07:48 AM
I just pushed sp up to $7. Watching hlg depth is like watching grass grow. Started at 6.97 to 6.98, to 6.99, to $7 in about 5 min., can't be bothered waiting all day for order to go through.

An old timer broker (hugely successful long term fundamental investor) said this to me when I started investing :

If a stock is good enough to buy at $1.00, it is good enough to pay $1.02 for it to get set. You should not investing to make 5% return but 50%.’

As true as it gets!

Beagle
23-09-2021, 12:33 PM
No news/updates from HLG before results announcement is good news

Full year about $36m/$37m my calculated guess

In line with my thinking too.

Balance
23-09-2021, 12:36 PM
In line with my thinking too.

HLG’s online will surprise imo.

Looking forward to the results and another juicy yummy fat dividend, fully imputed.

Beagle
23-09-2021, 12:54 PM
HLG’s online will surprise imo.

Looking forward to the results and another juicy yummy fat dividend, fully imputed.

Yes and it will arrive just in time for Christmas shopping :)

Balance
23-09-2021, 12:56 PM
Yes and it will arrive just in time for Christmas shopping :)

Yup - and my fingers are just itching to replace my 5 year old iPad with the latest iPad Pro!

Waltzing
23-09-2021, 01:20 PM
"iPad Pro"

5 years , probably wasnt built to last that long but that amazing performance if it was on over 15 hours a day.

Balance
23-09-2021, 01:22 PM
"iPad Pro"

5 years , probably wasnt built to last that long but that amazing performance if it was on over 15 hours a day.

About 10 hours a day. Great for watching TV & movies too.

Balance
23-09-2021, 02:32 PM
https://www.stuff.co.nz/life-style/style/300412335/olivia-rodrigo-wears-a-glassons-corset-in-las-vegas

Great publicity for Glassons.

Up with the fashion play as usual is our Glassons.

clearasmud
23-09-2021, 02:50 PM
HLG’s online will surprise imo.

Looking forward to the results and another juicy yummy fat dividend, fully imputed.

I'm thinking it's going to be 24c/sh

winner69
23-09-2021, 03:04 PM
I'm thinking it's going to be 24c/sh

Maybe more ….eps probably in excess of 65 cents

And they play the old ‘strong balance and confidence in the future’ trick easily afford that

Waltzing
23-09-2021, 03:18 PM
surely with the complete melt down in AUS , well almost the situation actually not improving they will be cautious?

although much to our surprise AUD flight stocks holding up well when they should have sold off.

Balance
23-09-2021, 03:18 PM
Results will definitely be out next week.

So be there with your shares or miss out!

Waltzing
23-09-2021, 03:21 PM
Take that back, forgot the april.

to many screens and too many computer languages and projects.

But is that not already priced in to the share price?

clearasmud
23-09-2021, 03:24 PM
Maybe more ….eps probably in excess of 65 cents

And they play the old ‘strong balance and confidence in the future’ trick easily afford that
Yes please, thank you.Iread somewhere that clothing prices are up 12% year on year in the states, higher than anything else.

Beagle
23-09-2021, 03:42 PM
Yes please, thank you.Iread somewhere that clothing prices are up 12% year on year in the states, higher than anything else.

WOW, not unlike a lot of people's waistlines :eek2:

clearasmud
23-09-2021, 03:49 PM
WOW, not unlike a lot of people's waistlines :eek2:
Spare Tyre, the bane of sedentary late mlddle age.

winner69
23-09-2021, 03:54 PM
Just look at some of the numbers in this preso from Premier, fellow rag trade outfit in Australia

We will rave about HLG profit being in excess of $40m next week but in reality Premier will have outperformed them …like HLG won’t be doubling profits

Never mind … all bright in Australia rag trade


https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02424938-3A576473?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a3 9ff4

Waltzing
23-09-2021, 04:34 PM
W(n) hlg >= sp

clearasmud
23-09-2021, 04:55 PM
Thanks for that, Winner.
Interestingly Premier owns 15% of $480m capped Myr which has sales 60% more than Premier.
MYR cfo reckons Myers online business ($500m sales) plus loyalty program alone is worth 2+billions.

Waltzing
23-09-2021, 05:20 PM
hlg chart looks a bit like 2017 and then it climbed up..

Beagle
23-09-2021, 05:49 PM
Thanks Winner, much appreciated. That report gives us all a bit of much needed encouragement that good business's can thrive in challenging conditions.

nztx
23-09-2021, 06:40 PM
hlg chart looks a bit like 2017 and then it climbed up..


at half today's going rate roughly back then ? ;)

not jumping earlier has always been a regret here :)

Balance
23-09-2021, 06:43 PM
Thanks Winner, much appreciated. That report gives us all a bit of much needed encouragement that good business's can thrive in challenging conditions.

And just imagine if HLG reported a 50% jump in profit, in line with the huge jump in Premier's profits?

Could be the reason why HLG has been keeping quiet!

Waltzing
23-09-2021, 06:49 PM
"not jumping earlier has always been a regret here"

yes a move out of BRISC into HLG was probably the go today.

or top up some more on WHS.

The AUS retail market and tourism stocks are just defying logic.

but really if you want to see a chart that is near perfect its SKL...

HLG chart is a bi yearly trade so far.

The power of AUS retail might just be what turns this into something a bit more reliable for investors rather than traders.

nztx
23-09-2021, 06:58 PM
"not jumping earlier has always been a regret here"

yes a move out of BRISC into HLG was probably the go today.

or top up some more on WHS.

The AUS retail market and tourism stocks are just defying logic.

but really if you want to see a chart that is near perfect its SKL...

HLG chart is a bi yearly trade so far.

The power of AUS retail might just be what turns this into something a bit more reliable for investors rather than traders.

very similar thoughts here

Balance
23-09-2021, 07:24 PM
$10.00 sp by Christmas then?

nztx
23-09-2021, 07:42 PM
$10.00 sp by Christmas then?


with an extraordinary online trading result- who knows ? ;)

let's face it if BGR can run as far as it has, then HLG deserves as much or more love given

10 bucks here we come :)

Beagle
24-09-2021, 10:53 AM
HLG will be reporting soon, (was 25 September last year). Hopefully they will be taking all the financial support they can get from both the Aust and N.Z. Govt's like they did last year and keep it, (my feelings and reasons why I think this is entirely appropriate have already been thoroughly articulated and I'm not going to debate the issue any further). I only mention it again as I think its now a material factor in supporting FY22's earnings.

The have an excellent website and extensive marketing through social media and I feel on a "lock through to opening up in 2022 DCF basis" they are currently fair value at about $7 so I am happy to continue to hold a reasonable sized stake for its excellent dividend yield.

From 21 September. My prediction is $37m and my assessment of the stock is stated above.

winner69
24-09-2021, 10:58 AM
From 21 September. My prediction is $37m and my assessment of the stock is stated above.

Only $37m - Your usual conservative self eh

Waltzing
24-09-2021, 11:00 AM
""currently fair value at about $7 "

Mr B fair value but when compared to P/E of other retailers and the current "Net Yield"; it might be undervalued at 7 on a mark to market basis. The history of its price instability then baked into its "always" undervalue SP as RISK determined by the market.

Le Volume today is shocking... nothing...obviously they are buying the ASX retailers not this one.

winner69
25-09-2021, 01:52 PM
$10.00 sp by Christmas then?

KMD on a PE over 17 …..same for HLG would have a share price over 10 bucks

Beagle
25-09-2021, 01:56 PM
KMD on a PE over 17 …..same for HLG would have a share price over 10 bucks
Wow so a possible upside of as much as 40% that's pretty good...but...
Same PE applied to WHS would see it at around $8.50...125% upside, that's really cool eh :D
More realistically if WHS can continue making steady improvements in its business model they could earn ~ $190m in FY22 about 55 cps and on the market accepting them more could trade on a PE of 13 for a share price of ~$7.00...NAH...could never happen...or could it ?

BlackPeter
25-09-2021, 04:03 PM
Wow so a possible upside of as much as 40% that's pretty good...but...
Same PE applied to WHS would see it at around $8.50...125% upside, that's really cool eh :D
More realistically if WHS can continue making steady improvements in its business model they could earn ~ $190m in FY22 about 55 cps and on the market accepting them more could trade on a PE of 13 for a share price of ~$7.00...NAH...could never happen...or could it ?

I remember winner used to have at some stage a signature line related to market euphoria, but can't quite remember.

Are we there yet :p ?

winner69
25-09-2021, 04:21 PM
I remember winner used to have at some stage a signature line related to market euphoria, but can't quite remember.

Are we there yet :p ?

It was “When investors are euphoric, they are incapable of recognizing euphoria itself.”

No worries BP …..euphoria kicks in at 10 bucks :t_up:

winner69
27-09-2021, 09:06 AM
Whatever the requirement was to get some corporate welfare Hallensteins and Glassons think they qualified and have received a couple of million wage subsidy this time around

couta1
27-09-2021, 09:15 AM
Whatever the requirement was to get some corporate welfare Hallensteins and Glassons think they qualified and have received a couple of million wage subsidy this time around They probably needed it like poor old Skyline who only made 54 mill profit last year. Lol

850man
27-09-2021, 09:17 AM
Whatever the requirement was to get some corporate welfare Hallensteins and Glassons think they qualified and have received a couple of million wage subsidy this time around

when you are told by the government to close your shops for weeks on end but keep paying all your people in those stores and the government offers compensation for following their instructions then it's only fair to take that compensation. A >30% revenue decline is a criteria

Balance
27-09-2021, 09:21 AM
Whatever the requirement was to get some corporate welfare Hallensteins and Glassons think they qualified and have received a couple of million wage subsidy this time around

Good on HLG.

One way to recover part of the tens of millions of dollars of tax & GST paid by HLG - taxes squandered by the way this government has screwed up businesses big time with the latest lockdown which was entirely avoidable with a proper MIQ system, a rapid vaccination rollout program and ramp up of ICU & hospitalisation program.

Note how the only instance of Covid jumping the border out of Auckland was courtesy of the government?

Dumbarton
27-09-2021, 09:30 AM
Good on HLG.

One way to recover part of the tens of millions of dollars of tax & GST paid by HLG - squandered by the way this government has screwed up businesses big time with the latest lockdown which was entirely avoidable with a proper MIQ system, a rapid vaccination rollout program and ramp up of ICU & hospitalisation program.

Note how the only instance of Covid jumping the border out of Auckland was courtesy of the government?


If we listen to you and your mate John we would have 27,000 dead rather than the 27 that we have.
How about returning to the topic the column is supposed to be about , HLG, not political crap-talk

Balance
27-09-2021, 09:33 AM
If we listen to you and your mate John we would have 27,000 dead rather than the 27 that we have.
How about returning to the topic the column is supposed to be about , HLG, not political crap-talk

Exactly - you are talking Cindy inspired crap as usual.

bull....
27-09-2021, 09:33 AM
Whatever the requirement was to get some corporate welfare Hallensteins and Glassons think they qualified and have received a couple of million wage subsidy this time around

companies that can only survive on welfare dont look like good investments ?

Balance
27-09-2021, 09:36 AM
companies that can only survive on welfare dont look like good investments ?

Out comes the resident ramper who has not been able to get HLG (or ATM for that matter) right.

You choose the wrong company to make the comment, bull - try companies which pay no taxes and have their hands out to the taxpayer (try the media sector for starters).

bull....
27-09-2021, 09:42 AM
Out comes the resident ramper who has not been able to get HLG (or ATM for that matter) right.

You choose the wrong company to make the comment, bull - try companies which pay no taxes and have their hands out to the taxpayer (try the media sector for starters).

who needs hlg when you have the no 1 retail company in nz BRISCOES who doesnt need welfare

Balance
27-09-2021, 09:44 AM
who needs hlg when you have the no 1 retail company in nz BRISCOES who doesnt need welfare

Your choice - keep it to yourself then.

How’s your ATM ramping going?

Beagle
27-09-2021, 09:51 AM
companies that can only survive on welfare dont look like good investments ?

Give the petty sniping a rest bull, believe me, we're all sick of it..

Balance
27-09-2021, 09:55 AM
Give the petty sniping a rest bull, believe me, we're all sick of it..

That’s ok, Beagle.

Bull shows his colours as a ramper at every opportunity and the opportunities will be taken up to reveal to all posters his modus operandi.

STr
27-09-2021, 10:00 AM
Give the petty sniping a rest bull, believe me, we're all sick of it..

I 3rd this - does anyone know how I can block some threads ? The Labour govt, National govt, Coronavirus and Racially divided Threads I am desperate to not see everytime I look at "New Posts" - these threads are poisonous

bull....
27-09-2021, 10:05 AM
Give the petty sniping a rest bull, believe me, we're all sick of it..

okayyyy ill give it a rest , although just to let you know hlg doesnt really meet my ethical investing criteria and ethical is the is the in thing these days for a lot of investors

Balance
27-09-2021, 10:06 AM
okayyyy ill give it a rest , although just to let you know hlg doesnt really meet my ethical investing criteria and ethical is the is the in thing these days for a lot of investors

Your Rampers' ethics.

Balance
27-09-2021, 10:10 AM
Good on HLG.

One way to recover part of the tens of millions of dollars of tax & GST paid by HLG - taxes squandered by the way this government has screwed up businesses big time with the latest lockdown which was entirely avoidable with a proper MIQ system, a rapid vaccination rollout program and ramp up of ICU & hospitalisation program.

Note how the only instance of Covid jumping the border out of Auckland was courtesy of the government?

For the record, HLG has paid (cashflow) $42.4m in taxes since 2018 of which $22.5m was paid in the 18 months to Feb 2021. Add on the final half year's tax and HLG would have paid at least $48m.

Plenty of taxes paid there and that does not include GST & PAYE (hundreds of millions over the years) but the $48m of real money paid in taxes are still not even enough to cover Cindy's election bribe of $100m to fix maraes, or to cover the Pike River 'discovery' cost - that's how good this government is at squandering taxes paid by companies employing hundreds of NZers and creating real jobs.

And we have posters here like bull & winner69 who have the cheek to write about corporate welfare?

Snow Leopard
27-09-2021, 11:14 AM
Give the petty sniping a rest bull, believe me, we're all sick of it..

For your information.
You speak for yourself and yourself only.

Disc: Hold Briscoe & Hallensteins.

Balance
27-09-2021, 11:19 AM
For your information.
You speak for yourself and yourself only.

Disc: Hold Briscoe & Hallensteins.

No, he does not.

Beagle
27-09-2021, 11:24 AM
okayyyy ill give it a rest , although just to let you know hlg doesnt really meet my ethical investing criteria and ethical is the is the in thing these days for a lot of investors

You can read about their sustainability initiatives here and even download their full 61 page sustainability report if you like https://www.hallensteinglasson.co.nz/sustainability

see weed
27-09-2021, 11:56 AM
For the record, HLG has paid (cashflow) $42.4m in taxes since 2018 of which $22.5m was paid in the 18 months to Feb 2021. Add on the final half year's tax and HLG would have paid at least $48m.

Plenty of taxes paid there and that does not include GST & PAYE (hundreds of millions over the years) but the $48m of real money paid in taxes are still not even enough to cover Cindy's election bribe of $100m to fix maraes, or to cover the Pike River 'discovery' cost - that's how good this government is at squandering taxes paid by companies employing hundreds of NZers and creating real jobs.

And we have posters here like bull & winner69 who have the cheek to write about corporate welfare?
Good truthful post. Very entertaining on here at the moment, but am going to keep out of this discussion, I think everyone must have the lockdown blues:mellow:.

peat
27-09-2021, 12:06 PM
Looks good to me support at 7 (worst case 6.50). back above that S/R line and the 30 day MA
Last movement up in 2nd half of Aug looks impulsive as opposed to being corrective since March.
MACD has crossed upwards (not shown) Volume a bit weak at present would hope it picks up if price moves.
13000

winner69
27-09-2021, 01:18 PM
Be exciting if Glassons did some marketing in the metaverse

After all social media doing OK for them .... this would be the next step ....nothing like immersive engagement opportunities for a brand

winner69
28-09-2021, 10:28 AM
Economy doing well in OZ

Andrew Grant, senior lecturer in finance at the University of Sydney, said men’s underwear was not a traditional tool used by economists to predict economic growth

https://www.smh.com.au/national/what-the-men-s-underwear-index-says-about-the-state-of-the-economy-20210924-p58uez.html?utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1632729748-1

Beagle
28-09-2021, 10:32 AM
Last year they reported on 25 Sept. Should be any day now ?

Balance
28-09-2021, 10:59 AM
Last year they reported on 25 Sept. Should be any day now ?

Been as late as 29 Sept in 2018. So tomorrow?

winner69
28-09-2021, 11:18 AM
Last year they reported on 25 Sept. Should be any day now ?

Generally on a Friday - but this Friday is October 1st and is possibly too late to announce a July 31st result ....but then they might have a August 1st year end

Yes Beagle - any day now.

Beagle
28-09-2021, 01:49 PM
Been as late as 29 Sept in 2018. So tomorrow?

Remember the days when the kids used to ask over and over again on a road trip, are we there yet ? :)
Hope its not tomorrow, not sure my lazy brain could cope with running analysis on WHS and HLG in the same morning.

sb9
29-09-2021, 10:02 AM
Been as late as 29 Sept in 2018. So tomorrow?

Looks like it might be tomorrow, cutting really fine.

Beagle
29-09-2021, 10:28 AM
Looks like it might be tomorrow, cutting really fine.

Fine by me. Absolutely truckloads of information in the WHS annual report to process.

nztx
29-09-2021, 01:06 PM
Fine by me. Absolutely truckloads of information in the WHS annual report to process.

and me too :)

Old mate
30-09-2021, 09:06 AM
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/380075
Looking pretty good team

winner69
30-09-2021, 09:08 AM
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/380075
Looking pretty good team

I'm shocked

allfromacell
30-09-2021, 09:11 AM
very impressive as always

bull....
30-09-2021, 09:11 AM
very prudent of them to not declare a dividend , we all know wage subsidies will end when vax levels reach a certain % so hlg wont be able to rely on these anymore when future lockdowns are announced

JohnnyTheHorse
30-09-2021, 09:11 AM
I'm shocked

Just going to go make a coffee so I can sit back and watch the exchange between Balance and Bull.

bull....
30-09-2021, 09:13 AM
there profits were boosted by lower rental costs and wage subsidies but good to see sales doing well in line with other retailers

jimdog31
30-09-2021, 09:19 AM
I'm shocked

shocked in a good or bad way winner?

winner69
30-09-2021, 09:32 AM
shocked in a good or bad way winner?

Bad way mate

H2 was 50% less than I expected ....shocking

bull....
30-09-2021, 09:41 AM
Just going to go make a coffee so I can sit back and watch the exchange between Balance and Bull.

balance is probably in shock and having more than a coffee right now

Beagle
30-09-2021, 09:51 AM
Top line sales growth for the year was very pleasing, as Winner has suggested, weaker in the second half than we would have liked due to prolonged Australian lockdown's.
I was expecting $37m so the effects of the lockdown's in Australia were greater than I thought.
Gross profit margin was 57.4% compared to 58.8% in FY20 so extra freight and logistics costs definitely a factor.
Total operating expenses as a percentage of revenue were 43.5% compared to 45.7% (a 2.2% reduction is very encouraging)
EPS 55.86 cps compared to 46.56 cps up 20%
Prudent to defer any decision on the dividend given they paid cash dividends during the year (including 15 cps deferred from the previous financial year) of 62 cps.
$7 is a PE of 12.5 on eps of 55.86.
As stated they expect the current year to be more challenging and I expect it will be a trough year in terms of earnings.

The top line growth proves this company could really fly when the Covid handbrake comes off but in the meantime I feel my previously stated position that its fair value at $7 and just a hold is validated by the results announced today.
Disc: Holding a moderate sized position for income.

Balance
30-09-2021, 09:53 AM
Bad way mate

H2 was 50% less than I expected ....shocking

Time to exit for you, W69 and give yourself some good rest during your waking hours.

winner69
30-09-2021, 09:55 AM
The cash generator is running in low gear

Last year Free Cash Flow $47m -- this year $28m

bull....
30-09-2021, 09:58 AM
declining margins a worry , when all other retailers like bgp and whs increasing margins

winner69
30-09-2021, 09:58 AM
Maybe Waltzingman correct after all …HLG showing all the signs of a cyclical …company and stock

couta1
30-09-2021, 10:06 AM
Maybe Waltzingman correct after all …HLG showing all the signs of a cyclical …company and stock Regret selling my big holding early last year but that had an under $4 avg price, wouldn't go near another holding like that at anything like current prices.

Greekwatchdog
30-09-2021, 10:06 AM
How can you compare margins when BGP is a house hold retailer, WHS is a 2nd grade Dept store at best and HLG is clothing end of story. Its like chalk and cheese. No I am not a holder.

bull....
30-09-2021, 10:13 AM
How can you compare margins when BGP is a house hold retailer, WHS is a 2nd grade Dept store at best and HLG is clothing end of story. Its like chalk and cheese. No I am not a holder.

its doesnt matter if they do clothing or household items retailers in every field are increasing margins so hlg is not so that is the question why not?

James108
30-09-2021, 10:14 AM
Exactly Greekwatchdog HLG margins may be worse than WHS or BGP (I haven't looked into this recently) and a lot less than KMD.

BUT stock turn is the highest of all retailers in NZ. WHY? because HLG is fast fashion.

RoE is astronomical with HLG, they pay almost all NP as dividends and still grow earnings.

Current price is about fair in my view for a growing but cyclical company with no moat that is executing very well.

Greekwatchdog
30-09-2021, 10:20 AM
Well BGP must be making excess margins Bull considering there is always up to 50% sale every week. Either that or the the items they sell are as cheap as chips. I get emails from Rebel daily telling me 25% off. brand or 10% off this. Commerce commission needs to check these guys just like they did the supermarkets.

Beagle
30-09-2021, 10:22 AM
declining margins a worry , when all other retailers like bgp and whs increasing margins

I disagree and have looked at this before. HLG holds just $27m inventory against sales last year of $350m. (Just take a moment and soak those numbers in). The stock turn is just on 6 which is remarkable and because of that they are more exposed to a just in time seasonal inventory management system and the consequential air freight costs during Covid that go with that.
Like I have been saying for a while now, fair value is $7 and a good hold as a moderate part of a well diversified portfolio at that price.
10% divergence either side of $7 would see me taking the appropriate action otherwise I'm going to :sleep:

Waltzing
30-09-2021, 10:32 AM
NO div till later on... WHS was the go after all.

Champers to MR B.

Pleased played this one as if it was still very volatile.

Perhaps a play later on.

bull....
30-09-2021, 10:36 AM
I disagree and have looked at this before. HLG holds just $27m inventory against sales last year of $350m. (Just take a moment and soak those numbers in). The stock turn is just on 6 which is remarkable and because of that they are more exposed to a just in time seasonal inventory management system and the consequential air freight costs during Covid that go with that.
Like I have been saying for a while now, fair value is $7 and a good hold as a moderate part of a well diversified portfolio at that price.
10% divergence either side of $7 would see me taking the appropriate action otherwise I'm going to :sleep:

add back in the rent reductions at some stage that will erode margins more again

sb9
30-09-2021, 10:38 AM
I've locked in my profits and out for now.

Balance
30-09-2021, 10:51 AM
Maybe Waltzingman correct after all …HLG showing all the signs of a cyclical …company and stock

Take the opportunity of the sp at $7.00 and exit, W69 - you will feel so much better for doing it.

Get some rest while you sleep.

bull....
30-09-2021, 10:56 AM
Take the opportunity of the sp at $7.00 and exit, W69 - you will feel so much better for doing it.

Get some rest while you sleep.

are you suggesting winner analysis is incorrect?

Waltzing
30-09-2021, 10:57 AM
Moved back to AUS tourism last week. It took off even with a lock down..

Filthy
30-09-2021, 10:57 AM
I've locked in my profits and out for now.

Yes, I did the same at open. Think this is headed down to $6ish. I did not like the future outlook commentary. I might look to re-enter and divi-strip once they ann. when the deferred divi is.... whenever that is. gltah.

Rawz
30-09-2021, 11:21 AM
Yes, I did the same at open. Think this is headed down to $6ish. I did not like the future outlook commentary. I might look to re-enter and divi-strip once they ann. when the deferred divi is.... whenever that is. gltah.

I did the same. It's priced on a much higher multiple than WHS or MHJ for example (retail stocks). The outlook did not exactly exude confidence did it. Felt WHS were a bit more optimistic. No dividend.

I'm no TA guy but the chart looking limp as well. Squiggly line going down

sb9
30-09-2021, 11:26 AM
I did the same. It's priced on a much higher multiple than WHS or MHJ for example (retail stocks). The outlook did not exactly exude confidence did it. Felt WHS were a bit more optimistic. No dividend.

I'm no TA guy but the chart looking limp as well. Squiggly line going down


Yes, I did the same at open. Think this is headed down to $6ish. I did not like the future outlook commentary. I might look to re-enter and divi-strip once they ann. when the deferred divi is.... whenever that is. gltah.

Agree with you guys, outlook statement is what threw me out.

Beagle
30-09-2021, 11:27 AM
One thing you can count on with HLG, (N.Z's oldest listed company) is what Percy calls the owners eye. With Tim Glasson owning 20% the company is being run for the best interests of the shareholders and is not going to waste egregious resources on kowtowing to the latest ESG fads or bend to political or social pressure to not take the Government subsidies they're legally entitled too, (after all they have paid full taxes for many, many decades). This means they are better resourced that other companies to withstand the current lockdown difficulties.

Further, the Govt's very recent move to mandate rent reductions where companies have been affected by Covid will benefit HLG and their systems are smart enough to run profitability analysis by store so they are fully empowered with the necessary information to deal with obstinate landlords.
Further, their online sales channels are second to none, so again this positions them better than the other retailers.

bull....
30-09-2021, 11:37 AM
I did the same. It's priced on a much higher multiple than WHS or MHJ for example (retail stocks). The outlook did not exactly exude confidence did it. Felt WHS were a bit more optimistic. No dividend.

I'm no TA guy but the chart looking limp as well. Squiggly line going down

looking at the long term chart shows anything over $6 - 6.50 since 2006 has proved to be relatively short lived for this cyclical stock if you believe history is any guide

Balance
30-09-2021, 11:46 AM
Take the opportunity of the sp at $7.00 and exit, W69 - you will feel so much better for doing it.

Get some rest while you sleep.

Hope you followed my suggestion, W69.

HLG is not a stock for you with your concerns.

see weed
30-09-2021, 11:49 AM
Warning..... Don't ever try and buy or sell more than 2000 shares at a time in this company. I tried to sell 6000 at about 10.25 this morning, but would of pushed price down to 7.02 with still a couple of thousand to sell. The order was at 7.02 for about 5 mins and nothing happened. So amended it to 7.03 nothing happened, ASB didn't honour my order. Then put the order to 7.09 and that showed up within seconds of placing it. Why would they not honour my order at $7.02? I then decided to keep them for the div. or when things pick up:).

LaserEyeKiwi
30-09-2021, 12:13 PM
Have previously sold out of HLG a few months ago (had other uses for the funds), but the earnings report was suitably impressive. What actually caught my eye in the report was the fact they have setup an online sales channel for the US market. That could be an interesting long term opportunity.

I don’t know why people continually focus on the short term impacts of lockdowns. They are temporary! They do not impact the medium & long term potential of the stock at all as long as a company has suitable financial reserves to whether the short term hit (which HLG indeed does). Both Australia and New Zealand are nearing the end of hard lockdowns that entail the shutting of retail premises, as vaccination rates proceed towards the 80%-90% levels at which lockdowns are judged even by conservative voices as being unneeded. In 6 months time there is very little chance we see restrictions higher than “level 2” in either country.

invest
30-09-2021, 12:17 PM
$200k of volume pushed this stock down to $6.75
Some panic selling followed by yield hunters jumping in.

macduffy
30-09-2021, 12:18 PM
I wouldn't have expected HLG to be anything but cautious about the current outlook. Aust/NZ in various levels of lockdown, remember? I'm not buying more at this time - but not selling either.

Beagle
30-09-2021, 12:20 PM
Have previously sold out of HLG a few months ago (had other uses for the funds), but the earnings report was suitably impressive. What actually caught my eye in the report was the fact they have setup an online sales channel for the US market. That could be an interesting long term opportunity.

I don’t know why people continually focus on the short term impacts of lockdowns. They are temporary! They do not impact the medium & long term potential of the stock at all as long as a company has suitable financial reserves to whether the short term hit (which HLG indeed does). Both Australia and New Zealand are nearing the end of hard lockdowns that entail the shutting of retail premises, as vaccination rates proceed towards the 80%-90% levels at which lockdowns are judged even by conservative voices as being unneeded. In 6 months time there is very little chance we see restrictions higher than “level 2” in either country.

Yes I noticed that too oh sharp eyed one. Population thirteen times more than Australia, more than 66 times N.Z.
Hmmm...I think that's a lot of potential with a capital P !

see weed
30-09-2021, 12:22 PM
Just bought some for $6.73 but will never buy more than 2000 at a time from now on:).

winner69
30-09-2021, 12:23 PM
Glassons NZ didn't have a good year and the real drag on profit growth

Glassons NZ sales up 17% or $17m but NPAT down $0.65m
Glassons AU sales up 38% or $37m and NPAT up $7.1m
Hallensteins sales up 10% or $9m and NPAT up $0,34m

Jeez -if only Glassons NZ had performed and turned the increased sales into higher profits things would have looked a lot better and Beagle would have seen his $37m forecast

Rawz
30-09-2021, 12:27 PM
Have previously sold out of HLG a few months ago (had other uses for the funds), but the earnings report was suitably impressive. What actually caught my eye in the report was the fact they have setup an online sales channel for the US market. That could be an interesting long term opportunity.

I don’t know why people continually focus on the short term impacts of lockdowns. They are temporary! They do not impact the medium & long term potential of the stock at all as long as a company has suitable financial reserves to whether the short term hit (which HLG indeed does). Both Australia and New Zealand are nearing the end of hard lockdowns that entail the shutting of retail premises, as vaccination rates proceed towards the 80%-90% levels at which lockdowns are judged even by conservative voices as being unneeded. In 6 months time there is very little chance we see restrictions higher than “level 2” in either country.

You are right LEK. Long term she'll be right. However right now best to lock in profits and put money to work in other holdings. Like you say you sold out a few months ago- better use of funds elsewhere... applies today more so. Rotate some HLG funds to OCA and hold some more cash is what Im personally doing.

Looking forward to buying back into HLG again one day. See where the SP goes. GLH's

percy
30-09-2021, 12:36 PM
Have previously sold out of HLG a few months ago (had other uses for the funds), but the earnings report was suitably impressive. What actually caught my eye in the report was the fact they have setup an online sales channel for the US market. That could be an interesting long term opportunity.

I don’t know why people continually focus on the short term impacts of lockdowns. They are temporary! They do not impact the medium & long term potential of the stock at all as long as a company has suitable financial reserves to whether the short term hit (which HLG indeed does). Both Australia and New Zealand are nearing the end of hard lockdowns that entail the shutting of retail premises, as vaccination rates proceed towards the 80%-90% levels at which lockdowns are judged even by conservative voices as being unneeded. In 6 months time there is very little chance we see restrictions higher than “level 2” in either country.

I think you have a laser eye Kiwi.
Spot on.Impressive.
Not easy with Covid for any business,but all the ingredients are there.:
Expansion into more bricks and mortar stores in Aussie.
Online sales are brilliant,and the excitement builds with them adding the USA to their digital foot print.
The trust I am a trustee of will continue to hold its HLG shares.

Balance
30-09-2021, 12:39 PM
I think you have a laser eye Kiwi.
Spot on.Impressive.
Not easy with Covid for any business,but all the ingredients are there.:
Expansion into more bricks and mortar stores in Aussie.
Online sales are brilliant,and the excitement builds with them adding the USA to their digital foot print.
The trust I am a trustee of will continue to hold its HLG shares.

Can you please just let the dooms merchants do their worse first?

Beagle
30-09-2021, 12:49 PM
NO div till later on... WHS was the go after all.

Champers to MR B.

Pleased played this one as if it was still very volatile.

Perhaps a play later on.

Price relativity on an earnings basis HLG ~ $7.40 to WHS ~ $3.30 a little while back made no sense to me so was a great switch and I am sure you would have picked that up in my frequent posts about the relative attractiveness of the two.

Price relativity makes more sense now especially considering HLG's disinclination to bow to political pressure regarding Covid support. Hope negative sentiment blows this down to $6 so I can load up properly again. Long term this is a Winner !!

Balance
30-09-2021, 01:13 PM
Price relativity on an earnings basis HLG ~ $7.40 to WHS ~ $3.30 a little while back made no sense to me so was a great switch and I am sure you would have picked that up in my frequent posts about the relative attractiveness of the two.

Price relativity makes more sense now especially considering HLG's disinclination to bow to political pressure regarding Covid support. Hope negative sentiment blows this down to $6 so I can load up properly again. Long term this is a Winner !!

Well done, Beagle!

Need the dooms merchants to write more doom and more negatively for us to get more stock at close to $6.00.

winner69
30-09-2021, 01:24 PM
Always good to know how increased NPAT of $5.5m came from

Selling heaps ($63m more) more generated $37.1 of Gross Margin but the lower GM% had an adverse impact of $5.1m (so Gross Margin in toal was up $32.0m)

Expenses were up a whooping $21.7m - wages about $15m of that

And they paid $5.5m more tax than F20

So the $63m increase in sales ended up increasing NPAT by $5.5m

That expenses a bit of a worry though

Waltzing
30-09-2021, 01:29 PM
"$6 so I can load up properly again. Long term this is a Winner !!"

this market just defy's odds.

Heres hoping.

"That expenses a bit of a worry though"

havnt had time to do the numbers or check the details. A break down in PL would be good.

Any chance of getting it? Not holding at present under any entity.

Little chance of 6 dollars this week.

Beagle
30-09-2021, 02:18 PM
Operating expenses as a percentage of sales are down nicely by 2.2%. Gross profit percentage is still very good at 57.4% despite the extra freight costs.

HLG a very good company, always has been,...its just that we all underestimated the effects of the extended lockdown's in Australia. Once this Covid nightmare is behind us watch this puppy fly !!

winner69
30-09-2021, 02:32 PM
Glassons AU still playing a starring

Still gaining market share

winner69
30-09-2021, 02:55 PM
Operating expenses as a percentage of sales are down nicely by 2.2%. Gross profit percentage is still very good at 57.4% despite the extra freight costs.

HLG a very good company, always has been,...its just that we all underestimated the effects of the extended lockdown's in Australia. Once this Covid nightmare is behind us watch this puppy fly !!

Operating expenses as a percentage of sales are down nicely by 2.2% -- seems good.

Sales up 22% (GM up 19%) - selling costs up 15% and distribution costs up 32% - combined up 17%. If I had the owners eye I'd be saying 'what the heck, that's not doing heaps more with a little more guys. Get your act together'

Yes, margins remain relatively high but this is the third year in a row of declining margins. Maybe strategic but they keep giving reasons so you'd have to assume they want margins to be higher. Maybe the owners eye has take the eyes of the ball.

LaserEyeKiwi
30-09-2021, 03:44 PM
Good news for retail stocks: government says Auckland could drop to level 2, but with the border control around Auckland remaining in place. I think this signals an intent to drop to level 2 soon, but in a way that keeps Covid ringfenced to just Auckland (and so doesn’t create the impression that they are endangering rest of country by letting Auckland exit level 3 lockdown)

I would guess Oct 11th 11.59pm will be end of level 3.

winner69
30-09-2021, 04:00 PM
Updated my HLG database

May as well share this for what its worth

Waltzing
30-09-2021, 04:12 PM
declining , competition? attempting to increase turn over? accounts for the high stock turn?

sb9
30-09-2021, 04:16 PM
Good news for retail stocks: government says Auckland could drop to level 2, but with the border control around Auckland remaining in place. I think this signals an intent to drop to level 2 soon, but in a way that keeps Covid ringfenced to just Auckland (and so doesn’t create the impression that they are endangering rest of country by letting Auckland exit level 3 lockdown)

I would guess Oct 11th 11.59pm will be end of level 3.

I think AUS operations will pain them for a while yet with both NSW and Victoria reeling under spiralling case numbers.

peat
30-09-2021, 04:43 PM
Updated my HLG database

May as well share this for what its worth


its a cyclical
on the way to 64 ?

13011

clearasmud
30-09-2021, 05:03 PM
Business seems to be growing well though slightly disappointing that the final dividend hasn't been announced yet but plenty of time to announce a divi before Christmas.

winner69
30-09-2021, 06:16 PM
Frustrating that rarely do all segments / divisions grow NPAT. There's always one that is a drag on group growth

This year Glassons NZ and reduced profits from property (no profit on sale)

Hallensteins actually grew NPAT instead of going back by a few million as they have done

Just as well for Glassons AU - would have sad overall picture if they hadn't done this well

One day we might see all segments growing profit at the same time

Table is the change in NPAT by segment for the few years

Beagle
30-09-2021, 06:33 PM
Thanks for that table Winner, nice work mate, appreciated.
Glassons Australia is the real star...huge potential there with more than five times the population of N.Z.
Notice the huge growth there despite really protracted lockdowns in NSW and Victoria...that's very impressive !

Waltzing
30-09-2021, 07:11 PM
Euro retail recovery continues. Aus should bounce back.

nztx
30-09-2021, 07:15 PM
Euro retail recovery continues. Aus should bounce back.


Aust already is & has in places, as has US Ragtrade Retail in many recent reports .. ;)

LaserEyeKiwi
30-09-2021, 07:22 PM
It looks like the NZ operation is the source of the big jump in “selling expenses” - hence why it’s net profit actually dropped. Anyone have any idea what the story is here? Did they initiate a big pay rise over and above the minimum wage increase for store staff? I find the lack of any detail in todays release explaining the drop in net profit for the Glassons NZ operation as rather bizarre.

Balance
30-09-2021, 07:32 PM
It looks like the NZ operation is the source of the big jump in “selling expenses” - hence why it’s net profit actually dropped. Anyone have any idea what the story is here? Did they initiate a big pay rise over and above the minimum wage increase for store staff? I find the lack of any detail in todays release explaining the drop in net profit for the Glassons NZ operation as rather bizarre.

The Gross Margin declined during the year due to a number of factors including unfavourable exchange rates with the US Dollar in both New Zealand and Australia as well as challenges with freight costs resulting from the ongoing global impact of COVID-19.

LaserEyeKiwi
30-09-2021, 10:26 PM
The Gross Margin declined during the year due to a number of factors including unfavourable exchange rates with the US Dollar in both New Zealand and Australia as well as challenges with freight costs resulting from the ongoing global impact of COVID-19.

those exact same factors also applied to Glassons OZ & Hallensteins Menswear NZ & OZ - yet they managed significant profit growth - so they don’t explain the poor net income performance of Glassons NZ.

Beagle
30-09-2021, 10:46 PM
Can't help have a bit of a wry chuckle about human nature...myself included. HLG delivers a record ever profit in the midst of a Covid crisis and we're all picking it apart wondering why they didn't do even better lol. Human nature is a curious thing.

I think if I was a senior executive or director at HLG and read the tone of the posts on here today I'd be feeling more than a bit despondent. We post a record ever profit in the most challenging times ever experienced in the many decades life of the company and all people want to do is criticize and say we should have done better.

I'll say it on behalf of all shareholders. A huge thank you to Stuart Duncan our new CEO, the Directors and the whole team at HLG. We really appreciate your incredibly hard work to produce such an outstanding result in these incredibly challenging times and really appreciate the 62 cents in dividends paid out during the year. Please stay safe and keep up your excellent work !

clearasmud
30-09-2021, 10:46 PM
Frustrating that rarely do all segments / divisions grow NPAT. There's always one that is a drag on group growth

This year Glassons NZ and reduced profits from property (no profit on sale)

Hallensteins actually grew NPAT instead of going back by a few million as they have done

Just as well for Glassons AU - would have sad overall picture if they hadn't done this well

One day we might see all segments growing profit at the same time

Table is the change in NPAT by segment for the few years

According to your figures the profit has doubled in 6 years but all of this gain has come from Glassons Australia.
Hallensteins down by half but Glassons NZ has compensated.

Ferg
30-09-2021, 11:13 PM
I too can see the irony in picking apart a good result but winner and LEK are onto something.

GP improved in 2H over 1H which suggests the owner has their eye on COGS, but something is awry with the selling expenses. I wonder if we are seeing a change in cost base with a larger % being sold online....maybe? High COVID-related freight inwards costs would be in COGS and should not impact selling costs. Selling costs could include increased costs for online platforms and online staff (in addition to normal fixed store costs) and higher transaction fees on online sales as various parties clip the ticket on what I imagine are relatively modest online average purchase values. I also imagine a large % of their workforce is customer facing in the stores (and classified as selling costs) - note there was a large increase in the wage bill, and it is likely the prior period included higher wage subsidies which will muddy the waters.

The image below has 2020 and 2021 broken into 1H and 2H with further columns looking at the changes expressed in $ and % and a final pair of columns that try to assign the change in 2H profitability over 1H based on volume and other. This assumes COGS are 100% variable and S&D costs are 50% variable.

What sticks out for me is:

The fall in profitability in 2H versus 1H is fundamentally a top line issue (ie lower revenues) - this accounts for -$7.9m NPBT reduction versus 1H
Using 1H COGS as the base for volume, there were COGS savings of $3m based on the change in top line revenues, and an extra unexplained fall in COGS of $5.7m (could be mix, FX, less discounts etc)
BUT, these savings were offset by non-volume related increases in selling costs of $6.1m


You may need to click on the image to get a larger view:

13018

Ferg
30-09-2021, 11:26 PM
And a view on their wages bill adjusted for Government subsidies to give the underlying picture. This says to me the selling expense issue is not related to underlying wages.

13019

winner69
01-10-2021, 04:19 AM
And a view on their wages bill adjusted for Government subsidies to give the underlying picture. This says to me the selling expense issue is not related to underlying wages.

13019

Good stuff Ferg.

Does say that wages actually paid to staff hasn’t increased that much

But highlights that last year governments paid $10m of those wages in F20 (reduced wage expense and in HLG case essentially offset lost margin because of lockdown which helped maintain F20 profits at F19 levels)

This year F21 subsidies much less so wage expense a lot more - up $11m to $59m which better reflects the actual wage base….but doesn’t look good in the P&L

Could say that lockdowns didn’t really affect F20 profits that much but this year F21 saw them reap the benefits of the huge pent up demand with sales up 22%

bull....
01-10-2021, 06:28 AM
good stuff winner and ferg.

Id imagine those selling and distribution costs are not going to improve anytime soon. i will be following the cost of containers and port congestion issues/delays for early signs of an improvement but we do now have the other issue of the energy crunch developing in a number of countries which will have impacts on the business potentially going forward ie may further increase these costs and impact supplies.
the energy crunch if becomes serious will impact all retailers by the way

winner69
01-10-2021, 08:50 AM
Can't help have a bit of a wry chuckle about human nature...myself included. HLG delivers a record ever profit in the midst of a Covid crisis and we're all picking it apart wondering why they didn't do even better lol. Human nature is a curious thing.

I think if I was a senior executive or director at HLG and read the tone of the posts on here today I'd be feeling more than a bit despondent. We post a record ever profit in the most challenging times ever experienced in the many decades life of the company and all people want to do is criticize and say we should have done better.

I'll say it on behalf of all shareholders. A huge thank you to Stuart Duncan our new CEO, the Directors and the whole team at HLG. We really appreciate your incredibly hard work to produce such an outstanding result in these incredibly challenging times and really appreciate the 62 cents in dividends paid out during the year. Please stay safe and keep up your excellent work !

Jeez the soft side of Beagle - hope you are not losing your hard nosed attitude of expecting a company to maximise shareholder returns (ie maximising profits before anything else)

Yes it has been he most challenging times ever experienced in the many decades life of the company but as Briscoe and WHS in NZ and fellow rag trader in Australia Premier has shown covid and lock downs have been great for retailers - pent up demand and all that has seen unprecedented sales growth and expanded margins all leading to huge increases in profit (in some cases doubling them)

HLG did OK but not as well as others. This possibly has been a missed opportunity to reap even greater rewards

Their result deserves to be picked over by shareholders. I hope management has done the same

My report card - Solid result but could have done a lot better C+

bull....
01-10-2021, 09:23 AM
Hallenstein Glasson, which warned lockdowns would dent its profit this year (http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/126537580/hallenstein-glasson-says-profit-this-year-will-be-hurt-by-lockdowns-as-sales-fall), said on Thursday it had received $2.1m in jobkeeper payments from the Australian government over the last year, but no payments from New Zealand.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/126516493/covid19-bad-publicity-enough-to-keep-some-companies-away-from-wage-subsidy

wow they didnt take the nz subsidies , seen the light

BlackPeter
01-10-2021, 09:44 AM
Warning..... Don't ever try and buy or sell more than 2000 shares at a time in this company. I tried to sell 6000 at about 10.25 this morning, but would of pushed price down to 7.02 with still a couple of thousand to sell. The order was at 7.02 for about 5 mins and nothing happened. So amended it to 7.03 nothing happened, ASB didn't honour my order. Then put the order to 7.09 and that showed up within seconds of placing it. Why would they not honour my order at $7.02? I then decided to keep them for the div. or when things pick up:).

Happened to me as well previously (with some other stock). When checking with the broker they said they have some "orderly market" responsibility - i.e. if your order is likely to pull market up or down they wait some time with placing it and see whether volumes increase before they place it.

winner69
01-10-2021, 09:48 AM
Hallenstein Glasson, which warned lockdowns would dent its profit this year (http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/126537580/hallenstein-glasson-says-profit-this-year-will-be-hurt-by-lockdowns-as-sales-fall), said on Thursday it had received $2.1m in jobkeeper payments from the Australian government over the last year, but no payments from New Zealand.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/126516493/covid19-bad-publicity-enough-to-keep-some-companies-away-from-wage-subsidy

wow they didnt take the nz subsidies , seen the light

That guy will be disappointed

Current NZ lockdowns post HLG year end …ie August 2021 Wage Subsidy

Glassons have recently received $1,050,710 for 497 employees and Hallenstein $886,722 for 424 employees in Wage Subsidies

Wasn’t much they could claim after lockdowns ended mid last year anyway but when opportunity arose they into it again.

BlackPeter
01-10-2021, 09:55 AM
Have previously sold out of HLG a few months ago (had other uses for the funds), but the earnings report was suitably impressive. What actually caught my eye in the report was the fact they have setup an online sales channel for the US market. That could be an interesting long term opportunity.



It could. However, there are downsides as well. Seasons are different in the US (remember, they are in the northern hemisphere) - i.e. HLG can't just increase their orders of whatever they buy, but they need to focus on winter as well as summer gear at the same time and basically doubling their sourcing efforts.

The other thing is - I used to love to buy clothing in the US every time I popped over there. Great quality, outstanding selection and (compared to NZ) ridiculously cheap prices. HLG might find that they are over there just a wee fish in a huge pond and margins in the US are significantly lower than here!

This might well be the end of the recent cyclical high ...

Balance
01-10-2021, 09:56 AM
That guy will be disappointed

Current NZ lockdowns post HLG year end …ie August 2021 Wage Subsidy

Glassons have recently received $1,050,710 for 497 employees and Hallenstein $886,722 for 424 employees in Wage Subsidies

Wasn’t much they could claim after lockdowns ended mid last year anyway but when opportunity arose they into it again.

Good on management for doing so.

Better in the hands of HLG, creating jobs & wealth, than being squandered by this spinning government on big spending & racist policies* with no positive outcomes.

*Try for starters :

$1.5 billion on mental health care with bugger all increase in facilities.

$100m on fixing maraes to create 3,000 jobs and so far, 150 jobs.

$2.7m to teach gangs how to peddle drugs more effectively.

$300k+ for Trevor Mallard.

Snow Leopard
01-10-2021, 10:01 AM
....
$1.5 billion on mental health care with bugger all increase in facilities....

It certainly has not helped you.

Beware of the Leopard.

Balance
01-10-2021, 10:06 AM
It certainly has not helped you.

Beware of the Leopard.

You hallucinating in your snow cave again?

Told you once and will tell you again to lay off smoking the cheap stuff! Have a bit of class. :D

Balance
01-10-2021, 10:24 AM
And a view on their wages bill adjusted for Government subsidies to give the underlying picture. This says to me the selling expense issue is not related to underlying wages.

13019

HLG's NPAT was actually up 58% according to some of the posters here.

If one was to do an adjustment to wage subsidies (some posters here were on their high horse wanting HLG to give back the subsidies) by backing them out of the results, an interesting picture emerges :

F2020 F2021
Profit B4 Tax 36731 46952
wage subsidy 10059 2139
Profit B4 Tax 26672 44813 68%
tax 6504 13011
NPAT 20168 31802 58%
tax rate 24% 29%

Which of course is the case with BGP, WHS & Premier from a comparative viewpoint.

Balance
01-10-2021, 10:29 AM
According to your figures the profit has doubled in 6 years but all of this gain has come from Glassons Australia.
Hallensteins down by half but Glassons NZ has compensated.

Totally consistent with the underlying story of HLG - NZ provides the sustainable earnings & yield while Australia & online provide the growth.

Not enough gloom & doom from some of the posters today. We need more so they can spook themselves into selling or shorting. Why I have been happy to keep relatively quiet yesterday.

Beagle
01-10-2021, 10:33 AM
Good on management for doing so.

Better in the hands of HLG, creating jobs & wealth, than being squandered by this spinning government on big spending & racist policies* with no positive outcomes.

*Try for starters :

$1.5 billion on mental health care with bugger all increase in facilities.

$100m on fixing maraes to create 3,000 jobs and so far, 150 jobs.

$2.7m to teach gangs how to peddle drugs more effectively.

$300k+ for Trevor Mallard.
Well said.


HLG's NPAT was actually up 58% according to some of the posters here.

If one was to do an adjustment to wage subsidies (some posters here were on their high horse wanting HLG to give back the subsidies) by backing them out of the results, an interesting picture emerges :

F2020 F2021
Profit B4 Tax 36731 46952
wage subsidy 10059 2139
Profit B4 Tax 26672 44813 68%
tax 6504 13011
NPAT 20168 31802 58%
tax rate 24% 29%

Which of course is the case with BGP, WHS & Premier from a comparative viewpoint.

I give them a B+ for a very good effort in trying circumstances.

LaserEyeKiwi
01-10-2021, 11:14 AM
One wonders what Glassons Australia would be worth as a standalone company with the sort of amazing growth it’s had. Not saying it should be spun out, but worth contemplating on a sum of parts valuation.

winner69
01-10-2021, 11:26 AM
HLG's NPAT was actually up 58% according to some of the posters here.

If one was to do an adjustment to wage subsidies (some posters here were on their high horse wanting HLG to give back the subsidies) by backing them out of the results, an interesting picture emerges :

F2020 F2021
Profit B4 Tax 36731 46952
wage subsidy 10059 2139
Profit B4 Tax 26672 44813 68%
tax 6504 13011
NPAT 20168 31802 58%
tax rate 24% 29%

Which of course is the case with BGP, WHS & Premier from a comparative viewpoint.

You could 'normalise' F20 and F21 further by allowing for lost sales because of lockdowns in F19 and assuming as part of the pent up demand regained all those lost plus more. Say $14m lost sales and GM $8.2m in F20

Your 20168 in F20 then becomes 26208
add the lost sales back in F20 your 31802 becomes 26212 - the same .....not your 58%

macduffy
01-10-2021, 02:30 PM
One wonders what Glassons Australia would be worth as a standalone company with the sort of amazing growth it’s had. Not saying it should be spun out, but worth contemplating on a sum of parts valuation.

No, you wouldn't want to spin it out; the HLG management/oversight is a big part of Glassons Ausralia's success.

I bought a few more HLG this week. "Buy straw hats in winter."

winner69
04-10-2021, 09:42 AM
HLG online sales have grown from $21m in 2017 to currently being $84m - 41% pa growth

Store sales have grown at 5% pa in same period (Group sales grown at 10% pa)

Group sales are now $112m higher than F17 - interestingly $40m of that growth cane in F18 when Di sorted out Glassons (particularly in OZ) and then after pretty flat F19 and F20 we saw F21 sales grow by $63m (some catch up boosted by Glassons AU doing well)

Interesting to see how channels work together - see table. Online picked up a lot of store sales H220 when widespread lockdowns but then stores were busy Feb/July this year

winner69
04-10-2021, 12:19 PM
Last year we got excited - for F21 the first eight weeks of the new financial year have seen Group sales grow +10.71% on the prior year,

This year a bit glum - F22 - The first eight weeks of the new financial year have seen Group sales decline -18.90% on the prior year

Big turnaround with this years 8 weeks sales probably only about $40m - levels not seen since 2018

Hope it all comes right pretty quick as the 'adverse impact on profitability' might be worse than anticipated

850man
04-10-2021, 02:53 PM
Last year we got excited - for F21 the first eight weeks of the new financial year have seen Group sales grow +10.71% on the prior year,

This year a bit glum - F22 - The first eight weeks of the new financial year have seen Group sales decline -18.90% on the prior year

Big turnaround with this years 8 weeks sales probably only about $40m - levels not seen since 2018

Hope it all comes right pretty quick as the 'adverse impact on profitability' might be worse than anticipated

All of NZ in lockdown and mid winter season are not a good combo for apparel. Fingers crossed for a brightening up with summer looming and end of home detention

winner69
06-10-2021, 08:13 AM
Interesting comments from Chartered Accountant head guy -

Accountants say companies should think about the ethics of accepting money they don't need.

Vial says employers should reflect on their ethical responsibilities in this situation, and view the wage subsidy in the spirit in which it’s intended.

“It’s not only about purely legal eligibility. There’s meeting legal requirements, but then there’s doing the right thing.”

https://www.newsroom.co.nz/podcast-the-detail/govt-handouts-wont-stop-insolvencies

Rawz
06-10-2021, 08:39 AM
Interesting comments from Chartered Accountant head guy -

Accountants say companies should think about the ethics of accepting money they don't need.

Vial says employers should reflect on their ethical responsibilities in this situation, and view the wage subsidy in the spirit in which it’s intended.

“It’s not only about purely legal eligibility. There’s meeting legal requirements, but then there’s doing the right thing.”

https://www.newsroom.co.nz/podcast-the-detail/govt-handouts-wont-stop-insolvencies

Reminds me of a quote from The Big Short movie; "if you can afford to make less, make less."

Balance
06-10-2021, 08:46 AM
Interesting comments from Chartered Accountant head guy -

Accountants say companies should think about the ethics of accepting money they don't need.

Vial says employers should reflect on their ethical responsibilities in this situation, and view the wage subsidy in the spirit in which it’s intended.

“It’s not only about purely legal eligibility. There’s meeting legal requirements, but then there’s doing the right thing.”

https://www.newsroom.co.nz/podcast-the-detail/govt-handouts-wont-stop-insolvencies

Did he mention anything about the ethics of the government paying Trevor Mallard's $300k+ legal bills for stabbing an innocent man in the back?

Or spending $51m on the Auckland Cycle bridge to then scrapped it?

Or $100m to fix maraes to create 3000 jobs but only created 150?

Balance
06-10-2021, 07:37 PM
Did he mention anything about the ethics of the government paying Trevor Mallard's $300k+ legal bills for stabbing an innocent man in the back?

Or spending $51m on the Auckland Cycle bridge to then scrapped it?

Or $100m to fix maraes to create 3000 jobs but only created 150?

For the record, the $100m for fixing marae created 158 jobs - costing NZers $610,000 a job! Kinda puts doing the right thing in perspective?

Waltzing
06-10-2021, 07:41 PM
We are off topic by a lat and long..

did the auditor general do a report?

Beagle
06-10-2021, 07:46 PM
Interesting comments from Chartered Accountant head guy -

Accountants say companies should think about the ethics of accepting money they don't need.

Vial says employers should reflect on their ethical responsibilities in this situation, and view the wage subsidy in the spirit in which it’s intended.

“It’s not only about purely legal eligibility. There’s meeting legal requirements, but then there’s doing the right thing.”

https://www.newsroom.co.nz/podcast-the-detail/govt-handouts-wont-stop-insolvencies

Firm I worked for in the late 1980's and early 1990's was headed by the former president of the Institute of Chartered Accountants.
Likeable guy, good Catholic...not very smart when it came to investments.
What many may not know is that investment analysis is not part of the core curriculum of a Bachelor of Commerce degree even if some mangy mutt that was never interested in social climbing took it as an optional high level paper, thoroughly enjoyed and excelled at it with an A pass. Most interesting and useful optional paper taught at the Commerce department at Auckland Uni by a LONG way....so good its worth putting up with all the far more boring lower level studies just to partake.

Whatever the investment skills of this new person is, (if any), he certainly does not speak for all accountants and would be far better off keeping his loud mouth closed. Does accounting training make one an expert on ethics ? (That's a rhetorical question in case it isn't obvious).

I remain very comfortable with how HLG are handling this but I am far less comfortable with companies taking very expensive ESG stands on issues that make the company bleed cash in very uncertain times, (WHS who cowered and caved in when Spindy frowned on them and are so scared to be off side with her and her legions of woke colleagues and supporters they're not even taking the subsidy this time despite burning cash hand over fist).

Ferg
06-10-2021, 08:51 PM
What many may not know is that investment analysis is not part of the core curriculum of a Bachelor of Commerce degree ...[snip]... thoroughly enjoyed and excelled at it with an A pass. Most interesting and useful optional paper taught at the Commerce department at Auckland Uni by a LONG way....so good its worth putting up with all the far more boring lower level studies just to partake.

Same and I couldn't agree more. The paper was 01.303 if my memory serves me correctly.

Waltzing
06-10-2021, 09:02 PM
Well looks like lock down not now being called for entire north island by WPA.

HLG stores in the north island wont have to close nor any other retail.

But its certainly starting to sound a bit panicky with local politicians get vocal.

nztx
06-10-2021, 09:09 PM
Why we discussionarising Wage Subsidies in this tread again ? ;)

winner69
08-10-2021, 10:33 AM
New guy in NSW seems pretty gung ho and looks like Sydney might open soon ...even though health experts are aghast at his plan saying hundreds could die every week

Just get the shops open and leave them open here and in Aussie please

Else no dividend by Christmas I fare

whome
08-10-2021, 11:45 AM
W69, I presume you are being tongue in cheek with your comment about no divi by Christmas.

winner69
08-10-2021, 11:49 AM
W69, I presume you are being tongue in cheek with your comment about no divi by Christmas.

Goodness knows what this means — The Directors consider it prudent to defer the declaration of the final dividend until Auckland and the Australian states of NSW and VIC have come out of their respective lockdowns and retail stores can trade again.

Be a bugger if lock downs continue longer than expected

Waltzing
08-10-2021, 11:50 AM
case numbers dropping in Florida..

vaccination works it appears.

shops open by xmas if the caught off guard with their pants down ANZ gets jabbed.

"caught off guard with their pants down"

"SMUG NZ"

ceo exporter comment, NZ Herald.

winner69
10-10-2021, 03:06 PM
Shops open in NSW tomorrow ...... after having their hair down it will off to Glassons to get a new frock and top to start the new life in style

If only Melbourne and Auckland could follow suit

Beagle
10-10-2021, 04:02 PM
HLG's Australian exposure is shaping up as a real bonus in 2022.
Growth there has been very strong in recent years and despite extended lockdowns in NSW and Vic remained so in FY21 which was very impressive !
Its hard to say what the prognosis is with any near term dividend, I am focused on the medium term reopening trade.
I maintain a hold rating and fair value of $7.

winner69
10-10-2021, 07:23 PM
I reckon ‘business’ driving govt policy now and Auckland will go to Step 2 tomorrow ……PM can’t go back on her veiled promises of last Monday ……and shops will reopen.

All looking good for HLG

Only need to get Victoria open now.

Waltzing
10-10-2021, 08:35 PM
Health experts are not in agreement with you W(n).

If you are right W(n), then MR B sold WHS a day early perhaps.

Beagle
10-10-2021, 08:56 PM
I made a bold call to completely exit my position in WHS and I have no sellers remorse whatsoever.

Waltzing
10-10-2021, 09:02 PM
" exit my position in WHS"

A credit in the ledger is worth more than a debt in the profit and loss.

Beagle
10-10-2021, 09:12 PM
Yes, agreed, a profit is not real until its realised. ;)
Over the last year the WHS share price has significantly outperformed HLG and I now see HLG as better value. Sure HLG metrics are somewhat more expensive at present (not hugely) but their systems are vastly better and the outstanding growth and further excellent growth potential of Glassons Au means HLG deserves to trade on significantly higher metrics than WHS, not just a little higher. That's how I see it but that's not in itself a catalyst to send HLG higher. I just see their shares as having less downside potential from here as we await a full reopening on both sides of the Tasman.

Waltzing
10-10-2021, 09:43 PM
"profit is not real until its realised"

Nothing is more admirable than a perfectly balanced ledger accompanied by transaction journals with forensic audit trails.

"Dedicated Follower of Fashion".

Says from Sydney this evening that Glassons will be fine.

see weed
10-10-2021, 11:32 PM
I made a bold call to completely exit my position in WHS and I have no sellers remorse whatsoever.
Good on you. It is called an early dividend. I did something similar in the last week, but could only sell about 40% of holding trying not to push sp down too much, but am also happy with my $6000 early div. Now lets get back to ZEL tomorrow and see where that's going:)

winner69
11-10-2021, 06:36 PM
Bedlam in Sydney clothes shops today ….clothes flying off the racks

Auckland next week ….Melbourne reopens soon as well

Cyclical
11-10-2021, 09:55 PM
….clothes flying off the racks

That's terrible, I do hope those girls were wearing something underneath.

Rawz
13-10-2021, 11:21 AM
Retail performance YTD

HLG 2.96%
BGP 32.50%
MHJ 34.25%
WHS 44.44%

HLG falling behind the pack this calendar year. Still a couple of months to go..

winner69
14-10-2021, 12:58 PM
I get email offers from Hallensteins every day ...sometimes 2 a day ... once there was three

Made me think that Seth who wrote this has a point ....like a race to the bottom.

A future of retail

What do traditional retailers own or control?

- The building- .The inventory
- The relationship with vendors
- Data about who is shopping and how they shop
- Trust with vendors, customers, employees and landlords

And now you can see the problem.

When retailers move online, the things they used to own are either eliminated or transformed.

And many retailers, in their eagerness to compete on price and their focus on selling things that everyone else is selling end up failing to build much of anything.

Permission–the privilege to deliver anticipated, personal and relevant messages to people who want to get them, and the ability to work with customers toward something better–is at the heart of every retailer’s future.

But many are so busy spamming about this week’s promotions that they forgot to earn much of anything.

Beagle
18-10-2021, 09:02 AM
Victoria opening up on Friday. Auckland nearly at 90% first dose vaccination so should be at 90% fully vaccinated within 3 weeks. Glassons and Hallensteins mainly sells to the younger aged demographic who are less worried about getting out and about. NSW open for business. Time to think about the bounce back ? The growth rate of Glassons Australia has deeply impressed me in recent years and especially last year when it continued despite widespread lockdowns. I think Glassons Australia has a huge future.

Disc: I got back on board in a bigger way last week.

Waltzing
18-10-2021, 10:39 AM
With "12 Billion in the Kitty" and ready to be expended some of it might be spent on retail.

Even in wellington been told over the weekend there is an understanding that business wants action.\

US retails sales holding up well.

Which may mean AUS and NZ wont see a drop off after re opening.

Margins are the key too retail as well as MR B's fav stock turn.

Lower the margin higher the Stock T. Higher retail margins can allow for a lower stock turn.

Buy low sell high is also a good max for retail not just stocks.

A point made clear from a designer in sydney recently.

Off course there are more low wage earners then high in some demographics.

pg0220
19-10-2021, 08:30 PM
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/business/453818/ethical-fashion-report-puts-five-nz-brands-in-top-20
Hallenstein and Glassons rated A for ethical fashion brands. Not sure what it means but good to see them rated highly. Not a holder but I love Hallenstein clothes and just bought a few more sweaters from them :D

winner69
21-10-2021, 03:48 PM
Going to be huge retail spend in Australia next few months ….matching last year

All those Aussie girls getting new outfits ….good stuff

https://www.businessnewsaustralia.com/articles/retailers-set-for-pre-christmas-spree-as-hospitality-takes-a-bigger-bite.html

Rawz
21-10-2021, 04:01 PM
Going to be huge retail spend in Australia next few months ….matching last year

All those Aussie girls getting new outfits ….good stuff

https://www.businessnewsaustralia.com/articles/retailers-set-for-pre-christmas-spree-as-hospitality-takes-a-bigger-bite.html

Thanks for posting W69. Good for MHJ too :)

winner69
21-10-2021, 04:04 PM
Seems like clothing retailers did it really tough during recent Oz lockdowns.

From the ARA commenting on that Roy Morgan data


The Roy Morgan data also values (for the first time) the impact of the most recent lockdowns on retail trade at $131 million per day across the economy.

“Unsurprisingly, these impacts have been most keenly felt in NSW and Victoria, at $40.4 million and $55.2 million per day respectively. And it’s also unsurprising that the most impacted categories were hospitality and clothing, footwear and accessories, at $71.7 million and $55.7 million per day respectively,” Mr Zahra said.

“These impacts will continue to weigh on annual growth in retail trade and will be compounded by the reduction Government stimulus payments and the end of 'mortgage holidays' for tens of thousands of Australians in coming months. We also have to remember that the sector is cycling some very high numbers off the back of a bumper Christmas last year.

“Overall though, the outlook is positive in the lead-up to Christmas and there’s a lot to be cheerful about in this years’ predictions.

No worries though ….Glassons would have and will continue to grow share ….and the outlook is good

Record HLG result in F22 I reckon

nztx
21-10-2021, 07:05 PM
Seems like clothing retailers did it really tough during recent Oz lockdowns.

From the ARA commenting on that Roy Morgan data


The Roy Morgan data also values (for the first time) the impact of the most recent lockdowns on retail trade at $131 million per day across the economy.

“Unsurprisingly, these impacts have been most keenly felt in NSW and Victoria, at $40.4 million and $55.2 million per day respectively. And it’s also unsurprising that the most impacted categories were hospitality and clothing, footwear and accessories, at $71.7 million and $55.7 million per day respectively,” Mr Zahra said.

“These impacts will continue to weigh on annual growth in retail trade and will be compounded by the reduction Government stimulus payments and the end of 'mortgage holidays' for tens of thousands of Australians in coming months. We also have to remember that the sector is cycling some very high numbers off the back of a bumper Christmas last year.

“Overall though, the outlook is positive in the lead-up to Christmas and there’s a lot to be cheerful about in this years’ predictions.

No worries though ….Glassons would have and will continue to grow share ….and the outlook is good

Record HLG result in F22 I reckon


Time to have an empty truck ready - winner ? ;)

Might be some weak hands about in the new week ;)

LaserEyeKiwi
22-10-2021, 10:30 AM
​Excellent news with this mornings new Covid framework announcement!

- retail will be open under every alert level
- more than doubling of resurgence payments to impacted businesses
- increased hardship support for minimum wage workers, meaning even a couple both working 40 hours on minimum wage will be getting extra payments if needed.
- enforced vaccination requirements to enter many establishments mean confidence for people to patronize premises

Beagle
22-10-2021, 11:43 AM
Its actually a tripling of resurgence payments. The amount of the payment is doubled but its paid every fortnight rather than every 3 weeks so the overall effect is the payment is tripled.

winner69
22-10-2021, 02:55 PM
Probably old news but this on Stuff today


Wow

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/126757742/heres-why-olivia-rodrigo-has-been-shopping-at-glassons

Beagle
22-10-2021, 04:20 PM
The world’s our oyster,” Ward said.

“There’s lots of things on the horizon but for the time being we’re in this wild Covid time, so we're getting through these headwinds we’re currently facing,” she said.

Interesting comments !

Raz
23-10-2021, 08:02 AM
Interesting comments !

I think they would do well in the US market. An online presence being main distribution channel, with perhaps a few signature stores in the right locations if they wished.

Beagle
23-10-2021, 10:38 AM
I think they would do well in the US market. An online presence being main distribution channel, with perhaps a few signature stores in the right locations if they wished.

I agree, its a huge opportunity currently not priced into the shares. Neither is the very strong growth rate of Glassons in Australia (even during extensive lockdowns) priced into the shares. I also think its the young people that are going to have the confidence to lead this rebound in retail so Glassons are very well positioned.

$7 isn't cheap for HLG but people have to find sound places to put their money and its sure doing no good sitting in the bank losing value at 2.2% per quarter !!

peat
29-10-2021, 10:59 AM
one key audit matter, being:● Inventory valuation

winner69
29-10-2021, 11:18 AM
one key audit matter, being:● Inventory valuation

Bloody heck

Ferg
29-10-2021, 11:38 AM
I'm not sure what the issue is with the audit report. It is an unqualified report and the relative size of the inventory balance meant it was considered a key audit matter that got the attention it deserved. From the report: "Given the size of the inventory balance relative to the total assets of the Group and the estimates and judgements described below, the valuation of inventory required significant audit attention and is a key audit matter." Note the provision for obsolescent stock increased from $0.4m to $1.4m. Nothing to see here?

Waltzing
29-10-2021, 11:43 AM
nice looking report..

before everything started to shut down?

aus opening up thought

as Winner says

All Good then.

GALS NZ did ok too.

peat
29-10-2021, 12:09 PM
Given the size of the inventory balance relative to the total assets of the Group and the estimates and judgements described below, the valuation of inventory required significant audit attention and is a key audit matter." Note the provision for obsolescent stock increased from $0.4m to $1.4m. Nothing to see here?

yeh I think so, just a little surprised.

Beagle
29-10-2021, 12:53 PM
Better not comment on page 20 in these politically correct times.

LaserEyeKiwi
29-10-2021, 01:24 PM
nice looking report..

before everything started to shut down?

aus opening up thought

as Winner says

All Good then.

GALS NZ did ok too.

just to be clear - this is the annual report publication, the results contained within were announced last month.

nztx
29-10-2021, 01:44 PM
Better not comment on page 20 in these politically correct times.

Yes .. the figures are definitely up ;)

Waltzing
29-10-2021, 04:15 PM
removed...

winner69
30-10-2021, 10:46 AM
Better not comment on page 20 in these politically correct times.

I'm very disappointed the auditors didn't bring it up as a key audit matter - is a significant issue of a material nature.

Dereliction of duty I reckon

Grimy
30-10-2021, 02:19 PM
I guess we will have to wait until the December meeting to hear what is decided about the deferred dividend. Hopefully with a few more weeks to see where things are going they may be able to give some clarity and say either yes or no.

winner69
01-11-2021, 08:30 AM
ABS report Clothing retailers sales down 18% on last year in August and down 11% in September (first 2 months of Glassons financial year)

But shops all open now so no doubt the massive catch up and under way


And Auckland retail will open up this week


So expect HLG half year sales to be up more 12% on pcp

Could be a bullish ASM next month

Waltzing
01-11-2021, 10:02 AM
What shops all open... Mayor in central north island wants to open but cant even talk to anyone in wellington.

dont expect people to rush out into a virus filled environment do you? Its not everywhere but you just dont know which person has been where!

people are going to be a little cautious?

when retail does build back better inflationary winds might be blowing head on. It's not plain sailing that was last year!

There is no one on the bridge.

LaserEyeKiwi
01-11-2021, 11:56 AM
ABS report Clothing retailers sales down 18% on last year in August and down 11% in September (first 2 months of Glassons financial year)

But shops all open now so no doubt the massive catch up and under way


And Auckland retail will open up this week


So expect HLG half year sales to be up more 12% on pcp

Could be a bullish ASM next month

“Auckland retail will open up this week” - ??? Did i miss something or is that what you are speculating will happen at todays 4pm review? I hope so as well, but I think Auckland is so close to implementing the traffic light system (on track to hit 90% double dosed within 3 weeks, and i imagine somewhere within 2-3% will be close enough to announce the re-opening date), and vaccine passports are just weeks away, that I would not be surprised if the health advice and cabinet decision/preference is to wait for that system to be in place in a few weeks time before reopening retail.

winner69
01-11-2021, 04:22 PM
Bugger - Tom let me down with the goss ....only got Waikato right and a week out for Auckland ... but you guys can go shopping next Tuesday

All go for HLG for the rest of the year

LaserEyeKiwi
01-11-2021, 04:24 PM
Bugger - Tom let me down ....only got Waikato right and a week out for Auckland ... but you guys can go shopping next Tuesday

All go for HLG for the rest of the year

Was a pretty bloody good announcement!!! Really pleased to see retail fully open nationwide as of next Wednesday. A big win for retail stocks here.

Beagle
01-11-2021, 04:47 PM
Bugger - Tom let me down with the goss ....only got Waikato right and a week out for Auckland ... but you guys can go shopping next Tuesday

All go for HLG for the rest of the year

HLG balance sheet will be strong after taking legitimate Covid Govt support and they will now enjoy a robust summer's trading. Looking forward to my dividend to be announced in the next month or so.
Disc: Added some more today as my view is the future growth rate of Glassons Australia and International is not priced into the shares.