HLG - Hallenstein Glasson

[RTM]

Back to more important taks... looking for the right boat... Anyone got a half share in a good Riviera they want to sell me ?

Hmmmm…. that sounds like a oxymoron to me.

[Muse]

that livestream quality sucked eh

Was my first exposure to management - thought james glasson was good.
towards the end talked to having their eye on 3 new store openings in australia but none of them at the documentation stage yet - still agreeing terms
interesting re their approach to their outlook/guidance statements - at least this year anyway (ie, just less than last year, and left at that). historically have they provided guidance, left it open, or just give a general sense of trajectory?

[Waltzing]

Not sure what is not to like about the result...looking stable to continue DIV.

and they have started their App strategy that gives them the platform to learn and test the new platforms that will develop in the future for online sales.

All looking pretty good so far.

[winner69]

that livestream quality sucked eh

Was my first exposure to management - thought james glasson was good.
towards the end talked to having their eye on 3 new store openings in australia but none of them at the documentation stage yet - still agreeing terms
interesting re their approach to their outlook/guidance statements - at least this year anyway (ie, just less than last year, and left at that). historically have they provided guidance, left it open, or just give a general sense of trajectory?

Outside of interim and final reports any announcement is generally how sales are tracking

A week or so after half year ends (feb 1) they give a half year sales number and about what profit for half will be. Confirmed a month or so later

When full year ends (Aug 1) they do same thing.

So no real guidance per se given …just what the answer will be close to the time


HLG not renowned for making announcements.

[Waltzing]

having said that everything is looking just honky dory.. it will be interesting to see how everything plays out in NSW as OMI comin HOMIE really takes off.

As NSW opens up and europe closes down.....

What effect that has on Xmas and New Year shopping in AUS.

[winner69]

VWAP $7.03 today

That’s pretty good effort following a ‘downgrade’

[Rawz]

VWAP $7.03 today

That’s pretty good effort following a ‘downgrade’

All good aye W69.

My biggest fair going forward is another year of $7 share price. Or worse, we see a slow decline towards $6.50

[Waltzing]

6.50 ... Buy more...

[Beagle]

I valued this company at over $10 a while back and anyone who took notice would have observed that most of the value is in Glassons Australia with its fabulous growth rate. I never expected sales growth to be announced at this meeting. It was clear when they announced the annual result that sales YTD were being significantly affected by the lockdowns and they've about halved the sales decline now, give or take a bit, so I think that's quite satisfactory against a pretty strong comparative period last year.

Sure there are challenges ahead but of a DCF basis I don't believe they're especially material to the valuation, (materiality in accounting terms is generally considered to be 5%). Any dip into the mid $6's would be an outstanding long term opportunity in my opinion.

[Muse]

I wound up following Glassons on Instagram and my feed is now features the occasional drop dead gorgeous model which I scroll past awkwardly when my wife is about. I explained to her what I’m up to but she’s not so convinced.

[Habits]

Hope next few weeks see roceting sales and that they are screwing the likes of KPG for heaps in rent relief

Was wondering if this might come up... the big boys who's profits are climbing yoy can claim rent relief. See what you have done cindy and robbi.

[winner69]

Well HLG done and dusted and silence from them until mid Feb when they’ll tell us half sales and likely profit

And beagle will have to wait until end of March to find out how much Glassons sales have surged ahead.

[Rawz]

Well HLG done and dusted and silence from them until mid Feb when they’ll tell us half sales and likely profit

And beagle will have to wait until end of March to find out how much Glassons sales have surged ahead.

And W69 lets hope you HLG bulls dont get carried away expecting a fantastic result. The very smart and credible HLG management team have stated several times that profit will be down this year compared to last. So likely the half year profit will be down.

We have to also keep in mind the risk of further lockdowns this financial year due to omni. It is very clear to me that consumers put buying clothing at the bottom of the list when locked up at home. Kitchen, home office and entertainment goods seem to fare much better.

HLG remains on the watchlist and is not a buy right now. Probably see another year of stagnated SP- just my opinion, only valued at 2 cents.

[Beagle]

Well HLG done and dusted and silence from them until mid Feb when they’ll tell us half sales and likely profit

And beagle will have to wait until end of March to find out how much Glassons sales have surged ahead.

Picture says a thousand words.

13344

[Waltzing]

you never know with retail its as fickle as weather can be and that is why you dont go over weight in anyone retail stock..

Briscoes should have an interesting summer with some stuff needed for bach's and those fully vaccinated BBQ's parties... where only your fully vaccinated mates are invited..

Boosters brought forward to 4 months could be the move that really gives NZ market an advantage and AUS should come right in MARCH as their population get's BOOSTED !

[winner69]

And W69 lets hope you HLG bulls dont get carried away expecting a fantastic result. The very smart and credible HLG management team have stated several times that profit will be down this year compared to last. So likely the half year profit will be down.

We have to also keep in mind the risk of further lockdowns this financial year due to omni. It is very clear to me that consumers put buying clothing at the bottom of the list when locked up at home. Kitchen, home office and entertainment goods seem to fare much better.

HLG remains on the watchlist and is not a buy right now. Probably see another year of stagnated SP- just my opinion, only valued at 2 cents.

Rawz me old mate -- yes bullish but one always needs to keep an open mind and consider some what ifs

F21 was a boomer year for HLG --- huge sales increase from pent up demand and lots of subsidies / relief .... NPAT over $33m .... pandemics are good for the likes of HLG.

Let's say that F21 was a one off and things will revert to more normal levels in F22 .... and beyond. As you point out they already preparing us for reduced profits.

Here's that long term profit chart again but with a likely F22 number added ..... still looks pretty impressive but not as impressive if we leave F22 off.

also it reminds us the impact of Di sorting Gassons out in F17/F18 taking profits to $27.4m .... and the boost that that all that pent up demand gave to F21 results.

The new norm might be flat profits around the $29m/$30m mark for a few years

That's one of my open mind views ..... but no need to panic yet

[LaserEyeKiwi]

2021 was indeed something special - just look at the jump in revenue / stores.

2018: 112 stores / $278m Rev / $2.48m per store
2019: 116 stores / $288m Rev / $2.48m per store
2020: 114 stores / $288m Rev / $2.53m per store
2021: 115 stores / $351m Rev / $3.05m per store

THere are a a bunch of ways to speculate what that means, but I think it is a combination of higher portion of discretionary spending going to retail (instead of Hospitality & Travel) and also the Glassons online store adding more new sales than simply taking from in-store sales (e.g. The online store serves all of Australia/NZ & USA, not just the areas with a physical store)

Will be interesting to see how the recent store opening in Adelaide goes, which I believe is the first store there despite n being bigger than Auckland. Still massive growth to come in Australia of course, with possibility of more than a hundred more stores if they are going to have similar store per capita as New Zealand (although makes sense to have less stores per capita but in more densely populated areas to increase efficiency, and leave the smaller towns to be serviced by the online store)

[winner69]

Hey LEK .... if you look at sales by half year how does your thinking go -


........Sales......v pcp
H119 151,244 3.1%
H219 136,306 4.1%
H120 160,266 6.0%
H220 127,497 -6.5%
H121 181,977 13.5%
H221 168,782 32.4%

H1 is August thru Jan etc

Suppose we will have to wait a few years to see (in retrospect) whether shopping habits changed or whether it was a timing issue related to lockdowns - ie find a more normal trend

[Waltzing]

everything is automated , not even thinking about thinking about + - / * anything..

its all scripted and full automation... big year of work...

EBO throttle up....

[winner69]

Hey LEK - if you breakdown sales into store and online (from what HLG say % is online) your numbers from yesterday like this.

2018: 112 stores / $242m Rev / $2.17m per store / online $36m
2019: 116 stores / $244m Rev / $2.11m per store / online $41m
2020: 115 stores / $225m Rev / $1.95m per store / online $63m
2021: 115 stores / $266m Rev / $2.32m per store / online $84m

In F21 sales were up $63m - $21m of the $63m from online and stores recovered and contributed $41m

Wonder where all this will settle down once there's no disruptions to store openings

[Waltzing]

winner(n) pop the cork on a Top of the North white wine and kick back in perfect summer C's, almost as good as Nordic summer before NZ heat kick's in.

Retail Up...

Christmas retail spending up but a warning some businesses are still suffering due to pandemic - NZ Herald (https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/christmas-retail-spending-up-but-a-warning-some-businesses-are-still-suffering-due-to-pandemic/J36YP2ZXFUNY3VNA5VGILYYP6E/)

[LaserEyeKiwi]

ANZ released its consumer confidence survey yesterday, which was to the (small) upside:


The final consumer confidence survey (https://www.interest.co.nz/sites/default/files/2021-12/ANZ-ConsumerConfidence-20211222.pdf) for the year is out, this one from ANZ Roy Morgan. It reports little change at a low level, up +1.7 points. The proportion of people who believe it is a good time to buy a major household item rose +6 points to 0, after three months in the red. Inflation expectations were little changed at 5.6%.

[LaserEyeKiwi]

Hey LEK - if you breakdown sales into store and online (from what HLG say % is online) your numbers from yesterday like this.

2018: 112 stores / $242m Rev / $2.17m per store / online $36m
2019: 116 stores / $244m Rev / $2.11m per store / online $41m
2020: 115 stores / $225m Rev / $1.95m per store / online $63m
2021: 115 stores / $266m Rev / $2.32m per store / online $84m

In F21 sales were up $63m - $21m of the $63m from online and stores recovered and contributed $41m

Wonder where all this will settle down once there's no disruptions to store openings

thanks for doing that - looks a lot more interesting.

[Waltzing]

any reason why we wont see the Average continue?

looks like a DIV machine doesnt it.

[Habits]

SP up one percent 7 cents... on no news. Good signal

Edit. No SPECIFIC news from HLG.

[Waltzing]

Volume 10,000

think it will wobble 20 cents often...

NSW numbers up and in Hospitals also rising..

OMI passes fast but it may keep shoppers away..

[LaserEyeKiwi]

Worldline (formerly paymark) reporting that NZ retail spending is up 6% on last year & up 13% on 2019 for the 6 week pre-xmas shopping period.

[winner69]

All wool suits $20 in a pop up shop yesterday …..even great discounters like Hallensteins can’t beat that priçe

Felt good …..and they fitted …so I bought one even though I don’t wear suits these days

Haven’t worn a suit for years and years …..might mow the lawn in one now to impress :t_up:

[percy]

All wool suits $20 in a pop up shop yesterday …..even great discounters like Hallensteins can’t beat that priçe

Felt good …..and they fitted …so I bought one even though I don’t wear suits these days

Haven’t worn a suit for years and years …..might mow the lawn in one now to impress :t_up:

Most probably a cancelled order,perhaps the Salvation Army.?
Perfect for visiting the Rata.
Very smart.

[Beagle]

Hands up all those who want to see Winner mow his lawn in that suit or who would prefer to see some of the latest Glassons gear :cool:
https://www.glassons.com/c/new (Notice how I was a good dog and didn't post a link to the swimwear section of their website).

[Waltzing]

deleted... removed... perhaps winner mowing in the suite with a glass of top of the south white wine... you never know might look quintessential Kiwi...

[Muse]

deleted... removed... perhaps winner mowing in the suite with a glass of top of the south white wine... you never know might look quintessential Kiwi...

Do glassons do Borat styled green man thongs?

[Waltzing]

Ok after reading another great article by D Grant in which he reminds us about the Philips curve id give retail till end of april..

[percy]

Do glassons do Borat styled green man thongs?
Dangerous painful thoughts.
The West Coast and Fiordland are infamous for their sandflies. The terminus of the Milford Track, where trampers board the ferry to Milford Sound, is called Sandfly Point.

[LaserEyeKiwi]

Ok after reading another great article by D Grant in which he reminds us about the Philips curve id give retail till end of april..

Because he has been so right about everything over the last 18 months

(sarcasm in case you couldn’t detect it)

his article is highly disingenuous - implying the retail spend is solely from inflated asset prices, and ignoring the huge increase in discretionary income/cashflow allocated to retail by kiwi households.

[Onion]

Do glassons do Borat styled green man thongs?

Man thongs would surely be stocked by Hallensteins, not Glassons.

[Waltzing]

"huge increase in discretionary income/cashflow allocated to retail by kiwi households."

created from what? QE... the picture is complex and the model is bigger than one page.. When they reduce liquidity across the market the sugar high has in the past always ended badly...

but it should last a bit longer..

[LaserEyeKiwi]

"huge increase in discretionary income/cashflow allocated to retail by kiwi households."

created from what? QE... the picture is complex and the model is bigger than one page.. When they reduce liquidity across the market the sugar high has in the past always ended badly...

but it should last a bit longer..

I was referring to the large amount of discretionary spending redirected from Travel/Accommodation, transport, Hospitality & Entertainment towards retail over the last two years.

[LaserEyeKiwi]

Strong Retail spending post-xmas


Worldline, formerly Paymark, has released data for the last days of 2021 and beginning of 2022.

It covers about 70 per cent of New Zealand’s in-store electronic transactions.

The data showed that core retail merchants, excluding hospitality outlets, processed $696 million in transactions in the week to January 4. That was 7 per cent more than the same seven days a year earlier and 13 per cent higher than the pre-Covid times of the start of 2020.

[Rawz]

Hopefully HLG moves a little aye.

MHJ cant take all the retail glory again this year? Surely not?

[Waltzing]

In a retail MR B balanced portfolio lets Hopes so!!!

[Rawz]

In a retail MR B balanced portfolio lets Hopes so!!!

Waltz its like there is a big magnet at $7? Cant get away from it. Maybe punters have had enough and slowly selling this retail rag for retail MHJ diamonds? Retail stocks can be dangerously cyclical so best to back just one horse?

I could have it wrong

[Waltzing]

"retail rag for retail MHJ diamonds?"

classic!

For all Mr B Barking it up it seems to take MORE barking to get the story out there.

Should pop up a bit on the next DIV along with BRISC.

Dips just dont seem to be on the Menu... :confused:

The Comp props are also not doing what they are supposed to... they keep going up..

At least the banks are working..and going up.

[Rawz]

"retail rag for retail MHJ diamonds?"

classic!

For all Mr B Barking it up it seems to take MORE barking to get the story out there.

Beagle's story is on point. And LaserEyeKiwi is posting positive retail sales data but probably punters cant get over managements profit warning last year for this FY. And Ferg's data shows this is a boring company with long term CAGR of 10% or just over?

I posted not long ago that you would be able to pick HLG up for $7 end of 2022. I'm now thinking this $7 magnet might apply into 2023 calendar year?

At least the divvy is good.

[Waltzing]

The problem could be it should be dual listed like MHJ.

Aus punters think NZ is a pacific island east of Tasmania not a real economy.

Just some beach bach's.

Not far wrong actually as Joyce called it a Potemkin Village.

There has got to be one more big sugar high coming from Aus this year...

That could push HLG up for while... sell and rebuy lower...

Its a DIV machine...

[Ferg]

Beagle's story is on point. And LaserEyeKiwi is posting positive retail sales data but probably punters cant get over managements profit warning last year for this FY. And Ferg's data shows this is a boring company with long term CAGR of 10% or just over?

That was "boring" in a good way. The 10 year CAGR has just ticked over +5% per annum, but the sales growth over the last 5 years has averaged +11% per annum, which was helped tremendously with the latest full year. I like the company and boring is good - i.e. no surprises, controlled growth, no debt, good dividends.

[Rawz]

That was "boring" in a good way. The 10 year CAGR has just ticked over +5% per annum, but the sales growth over the last 5 years has averaged +11% per annum, which was helped tremendously with the latest full year. I like the company and boring is good - i.e. no surprises, controlled growth, no debt, good dividends.

Yes it is good, i agree. I was meaning your data (plus managements commentary) almost predicts my assumption of the $7 sp magnet leading into 2023.

Last years results were too good. Need a couple of flat years to get back to the 10 year 5% cagr or 5 year 11%

[Beagle]

No more lockdowns in Australia https://www.9news.com.au/national/coronavirus-australia-updates-scott-morrison-says-lockdowns-over-as-cases-escalate/f5d6c1e9-da4c-4975-9928-66d990fb4e3d Hope Cindy is taking notes.

[Habits]

No more lockdowns in Australia https://www.9news.com.au/national/coronavirus-australia-updates-scott-morrison-says-lockdowns-over-as-cases-escalate/f5d6c1e9-da4c-4975-9928-66d990fb4e3d Hope Cindy is taking notes.

Tennis starrr novax Novac will be holding his breath about that

[Muse]

Interesting. Always a handful of these garments, influencer showcases and attendant media coverage. Clever work. Bit of scarcity to increase overall brand value.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/femail/article-10366133/amp/Shoppers-sent-spin-crash-Glassons-website-race-buy-popular-blue-corset-top.html

Perhaps HLG should dump the hallensteins name, rebrand as simply Glassons Limited, and consider a secondary listing on the ASX.

[Panda-NZ-]

No more lockdowns in Australia https://www.9news.com.au/national/coronavirus-australia-updates-scott-morrison-says-lockdowns-over-as-cases-escalate/f5d6c1e9-da4c-4975-9928-66d990fb4e3d

Must be an election coming up. I wouldn't rely on that longer term.

[Beagle]

Time will tell. I think that HLG are weathering the Covid storm pretty well. Highest profit ever last year. They should do okay this year and then go on to bigger and better things.

[BlackPeter]

Time will tell. I think that HLG are weathering the Covid storm pretty well. Highest profit ever last year. They should do okay this year and then go on to bigger and better things.

You mean - at some stage HLG (the orange line) might even outperform WHS (the blue line) ;):

Hey - this would be amazing, wouldn't it?

13378

... and yes, I realize that there have been periods in the past where it was the other way around ... but at the moment it is not HLG making the best out of the amazing retail opportunities.

On the bright side ... coming from a lower base should make it easier for them to improve.

On the not so bright side ... there was yesterday an article in the herald stating that every Kiwi dumps in average 44kg of textiles per year (this includes commercial textiles like uniforms / bed ware / linen / towels).


New Zealand sends about 100,000 tonnes of clothing to landfill each year – about 44kg per person.

Textiles create about three times their weight in CO2 in landfill – so while they make up 5-6 per cent of landfill, they produce about 30 per cent of the carbon impacts.

From: https://www.nzherald.co.nz/brand-insight/govt-biggest-problem-in-clothing-carbon/EOTEB7ESZIAXLJHCUXTGP2I4GQ/
(might be paywalled - not sure)

Maybe there is an opportunity for all of us to buy and dump in future less textiles - this would be good for the environment, even if it might be bad for both HLG and WHS.

They might however start selling more durable and repairable products and encourage customers to wear / use them longer.

Opportunities ... opportunities ...

[winner69]

........................


They might however start selling more durable and repairable products and encourage customers to wear / use them longer.

Opportunities ... opportunities ...

Op shops are probably Glassons biggest competitor

Friend who works (volunteer) says she doesn't see much Glassons stuff being 'donated' .... lots of other fashion labels though

[Waltzing]

Ill ask a designer in sydney whats she thinks of that one..

looks like HLG will trade in a range 6.80 - 7.50

that should be very profitable..

[Ferg]

On the not so bright side ... there was yesterday an article in the herald stating that every Kiwi dumps in average 44kg of textiles per year (this includes commercial textiles like uniforms / bed ware / linen / towels).

From: https://www.nzherald.co.nz/brand-insight/govt-biggest-problem-in-clothing-carbon/EOTEB7ESZIAXLJHCUXTGP2I4GQ/
(might be paywalled - not sure)

The article is not paywalled and is an example of why I won't pay for what I think is sub-standard journalism. Last time I checked NZ passed 2.7m population some time in the late 1960s. 100,000 tonnes divided by 44kgs per person puts our population at 2.27m. Maybe they got confused over wet versus dry or laden versus unladen.....either way it's pretty sloppy and I don't believe the 44kgs for a second. I wonder how they came up with 100,000 tonnes...?

[BlackPeter]

The article is not paywalled and is an example of why I won't pay for what I think is sub-standard journalism. Last time I checked NZ passed 2.7m population some time in the late 1960s. 100,000 tonnes divided by 44kgs per person puts our population at 2.27m. Maybe they got confused over wet versus dry or laden versus unladen.....either way it's pretty sloppy and I don't believe the 44kgs for a second. I wonder how they came up with 100,000 tonnes...?

Well spotted. The 100,000 tonnes don't match the current number of Kiwis and 44kg per head. Something is wrong.

However - if you do just a minimum in research you might find that the 44 kg seems to be the right order of magnitude. I trust that your free media never make a mistake, don't they?

Anyway - the following article form the spinoff talks about 380,000 tonnes imported every year into NZ of which more than half are assumed to go into the landfill ... well, I assume and hope after they have been worn).


Every year here in New Zealand, we import over 380,000 tonnes of textile products, with well over half that amount ending up in landfill. In addition to greenhouse gas emissions from decomposing textiles, the synthetic and blended clothing which now makes up the bulk of what the world wears generates huge amounts of plastic pollution.


https://thespinoff.co.nz/society/12-05-2021/theres-a-global-avalanche-of-used-clothing-and-nz-needs-to-do-more-to-save-it-from-landfill

[Aaron]

Well spotted. The 100,000 tonnes don't match the current number of Kiwis and 44kg per head. Something is wrong.

However - if you do just a minimum in research you might find that the 44 kg seems to be the right order of magnitude. I trust that your free media never make a mistake, don't they?

Anyway - the following article form the spinoff talks about 380,000 tonnes imported every year into NZ of which more than half are assumed to go into the landfill ... well, I assume and hope after they have been worn).



https://thespinoff.co.nz/society/12-05-2021/theres-a-global-avalanche-of-used-clothing-and-nz-needs-to-do-more-to-save-it-from-landfill

Should I keep paying my herald subscription then? rather than getting my news free from the internet and social media pages.

[BlackPeter]

Should I keep paying my herald subscription then? rather than getting my news free from the internet and social media pages.

Probably not the right discussion on this thread. In general I'd say either you are paying for the journalist or somebody else does ... and personally I prefer if I have at least some of the journalists paid by me (and working towards my objectives) than have just "free" media which are really paid by people with different objectives than mine.

So - not sure whether the Herald is worthwhile your (or mine) subscription fees ( I sometimes wonder as well), but I think we both should still financially support good local journalism. Use it and pay for it or lose it. I prefer to keep some independent journalism instead of consuming Fox lies & Co funded by people who clearly don't have our interest at heart.

[Balance]

You mean - at some stage HLG (the orange line) might even outperform WHS (the blue line) ;):

Hey - this would be amazing, wouldn't it?

13378

... and yes, I realize that there have been periods in the past where it was the other way around ... but at the moment it is not HLG making the best out of the amazing retail opportunities.

.

Yawn - using a selective time frame to chart a favorable outcome for one stock vs another? Is that how you invest?

Go back 5 years and HLG outperformed WHS 123% vs 43%

Go back to March 2020 and HLG outperformed WHS 213% vs 99%

Go back 10 years and HLG outperformed WHS 91% vs 33%

We know which one to invest in for sustainable & long term performance.

[BlackPeter]

Yawn - using a selective time frame to chart a favorable outcome for one stock vs another? Is that how you invest?

Go back 5 years and HLG outperformed WHS 123% vs 43%

Go back to March 2020 and HLG outperformed WHS 213% vs 99%

Go back 10 years and HLG outperformed WHS 91% vs 33%

We know which one to invest in for sustainable & long term performance.

Quite unnecessary attack. No, this is not how I invest. Do you? Do you invest only with firm view into the rear mirror given the examples you provide? I suppose not.

However - I decided roughly a year ago to put my retail investment into WHS instead of into the much barked about HLG ... and am so far quite happy with my decision. Obviously - past performance does not determine future performance - i.e. I review my portfolio regularly and might change my views if the circumstances change.

How do you do it?

I guess this is just an indication (if one is needed) that even much barked about stocks can go up, down or not change at all ... same as any other stock :) .

[Beagle]

I didn't see it as an attack at all...however your repeated references to barking could certainly be interpreted that way.

HLG has been an outstanding performer over the last 5 years and has very strong growth prospects with Glassons Australia and internationally. Including strategic risk management initiatives around Covid 19, (that I have very clearly barked the timing of earlier in this thread), anyone who listened to the barking closely inclusive of all dividends would also have made close to 5 times their money in just over 5 years. Such people would have every reason to pat and say very nice doggy, not attack the barking as inappropriate as you've done.

WHS has done well from nesting instincts since Covid hit and I've ridden that horse too and clearly articulated why I think all the low hanging fruit there has been picked. I have much more confidence about the growth prospects of Glassons going forward than I do with WHS.
In a nutshell, I think people are more or less done with nesting, (have already bought their big appliances from Noel Leeming) and are well and truly ready to buy apparel and go out socialising and peacocking.

Each to their own though mate, if you like WHS more, no problem and good luck to you.

I'm very happy indeed to remain a long term shareholder in HLG, its really works and has been a tremendously rewarding investment for me and is highly likely to be even more so over the medium to long term going forward.

[Waltzing]

the chart underlying looks weaker than stronger the as O Neil always states the longer the plateau the bigger the move... its been flat for a while...longest flat period was 2013 to 2017.

longest top was 2005-2007..

we tended to trade the tops on average 3 years..from trough to top.

the underlying is where we draw the troughs . Now this was only because it was retail.

[BlackPeter]

I didn't see it as an attack at all...however your repeated references to barking could certainly be interpreted that way.

HLG has been an outstanding performer over the last 5 years and has very strong growth prospects with Glassons Australia and internationally. Including strategic risk management initiatives around Covid 19, (that I have very clearly barked the timing of earlier in this thread), anyone who listened to the barking closely inclusive of all dividends would also have made close to 5 times their money in just over 5 years. Such people would have every reason to pat and say very nice doggy, not attack the barking as inappropriate as you've done.

WHS has done well from nesting instincts since Covid hit and I've ridden that horse too and clearly articulated why I think all the low hanging fruit there has been picked. I have much more confidence about the growth prospects of Glassons going forward than I do with WHS.
In a nutshell, I think people are more or less done with nesting, (have already bought their big appliances from Noel Leeming) and are well and truly ready to buy apparel and go out socialising and peacocking.

Each to their own though mate, if you like WHS more, no problem and good luck to you.

I'm very happy indeed to remain a long term shareholder in HLG, its really works and has been a tremendously rewarding investment for me and is highly likely to be even more so over the medium to long term going forward.

Fair enough - timing clearly matters:

13380

HLG clearly did better on a 5 year horizon ... and nobody can predict with certainty which of these companies will do better over the next 5 years ... though at the moment I would think the warehouse group has at least a more diversified product range on offer - diversification helps to manage risks :):

Anyway - no attack intended, but it still must be fair to mention that while you did an amazing job in identifying HLG when the price was down ... you kept barking when the price was up.

Again - no attack ... and I know that I kept harping about stocks as well which didn't do that well ... it's only human :sleep: ;

What this means for the future is anybody's best guess ... and I suppose my crystal ball is as cloudy as yours ... but I'd think a doubling of the WHS SP might be in that timeframe (5 yrs and if they do everything right) more likely than a doubling of the HLG SP.

Time will tell ... probably will both in that time frame revisit at some stage the doldrums ... as cyclicals do ;);

[Beagle]

I've already clearly stated the many reasons why I think HLG has superior prospects going forward than WHS and am very confident in my analysis. Actions speak louder than words. I hold no WHS shares and plenty of HLG. I believe HLG is a growth company and WHS has strong elements of being a cyclical company. I am looking through the Covid fog and am very confident of the future of this company. In the long run on a DCF basis I only see about 20-30 cents of DCF valuation impact on HLG from Covid, most of which I am assuming occurs in this year and FY23. Maybe there's some impact in FY24 as well, time will tell.

[Waltzing]

Underlying chart of whs has been flat since since 2009... it has broken out to the up side but unlike MHJ and HLG it is an NZ only stock and why Mr B does not have it in the same bin as these 2 overseas market bins..

we think whs has logistical solution problems to solve in order to create farther profit and reduce costs.

Well only time will tell if WHS can squeeze some more out of the profit and loss engine and warehouse performance.

[Waltzing]

Pushing UP! Staying above the 7 dollar handle.

[winner69]

I sense some Dogs of the NZX buying today ..... might even go over 720

[Beagle]

Fair enough - timing clearly matters:

13380

HLG clearly did better on a 5 year horizon ... and nobody can predict with certainty which of these companies will do better over the next 5 years ... though at the moment I would think the warehouse group has at least a more diversified product range on offer - diversification helps to manage risks :):

Anyway - no attack intended, but it still must be fair to mention that while you did an amazing job in identifying HLG when the price was down ... you kept barking when the price was up.

Again - no attack ... and I know that I kept harping about stocks as well which didn't do that well ... it's only human :sleep: ;

What this means for the future is anybody's best guess ... and I suppose my crystal ball is as cloudy as yours ... but I'd think a doubling of the WHS SP might be in that timeframe (5 yrs and if they do everything right) more likely than a doubling of the HLG SP.

Time will tell ... probably will both in that time frame revisit at some stage the doldrums ... as cyclicals do ;);

How are you feeling about your WHS shares now after today's shocking trading update and massive profit downgrade ?
Be some good opportunities to double down on Monday, get stuck into it if you still believe the story.

[Muse]

How are you feeling about your WHS shares now after today's shocking trading update and massive profit downgrade ?
Be some good opportunities to double down on Monday, get stuck into it if you still believe the story.

Aye, BP’s post didn’t age well but I wouldnt gloat too much hound-dawg - many of those same issues may impact HLG (even if to lesser quantums) and while HLG’s SP is holding up well they havent released results yet and their ‘guidance’ was vague (Earnings will be down and that is all) and released in the thick of an AGM at the end of the year. WHS has more instos and broker coverage - HLG retail with no coverage and slower to react until the announcement of a divy cut is made .

[Waltzing]

well a diversified retail portfolio is recommended.

but WHS report was 1Q heavily impacted but they have clearly stated that 2HYTD 22 is expected to track 2HYTD 21.

55 BPS is surely not a big deal.

Big MR B is correct when if WHS 32 CPS is on the money that No growth and HLG AUS GLASSONS sales is where HLG has growth potential.

Least we not forget this statement from the CEO's last address to the solders on the front lines...


"The first 20 weeks of the new financial year have seen Group sales decline ‐10.14% on the prior year, this has been driven predominantly by multiple store closures across both New Zealand and Australia inresponse to the recent COVID‐19 outbreaks in both countries."

Gosh 10-14% in the first 20 weeks!!!

That should impact NPAT.

Now that is a similar story to WHS but with a brighter future.

[BlackPeter]

How are you feeling about your WHS shares now after today's shocking trading update and massive profit downgrade ?
Be some good opportunities to double down on Monday, get stuck into it if you still believe the story.

Good question ... I was busy today (with much more pleasant activities than watching the share market) and thankfully the company gave me a full weekend to digest the news before there is anything I need to do :):

Suppose I won't queue up for selling on Monday morning ... and watch the trend.

So far I see that more as a Covid blip - this HY was certainly not normal trading conditions.

[Beagle]

Good question ... I was busy today (with much more pleasant activities than watching the share market) and thankfully the company gave me a full weekend to digest the news before there is anything I need to do :):

Suppose I won't queue up for selling on Monday morning ... and watch the trend.

So far I see that more as a Covid blip - this HY was certainly not normal trading conditions.

I've crunched the numbers already on that thread for you. I agree its not a normal year. Normal to me for them looks like $100-$110m. About 30-32 cps...choose your own PE. I'm going with a no growth PE of 10.5 because I believe most of the big nesting spending people have been doing at Noel Leeming is behind us and FY21 was indeed a one off bonanza not to be repeated. No doubt you'll see it differently.

[BlackPeter]

I've crunched the numbers already on that thread for you. I agree its not a normal year. Normal to me for them looks like $100-$110m. About 30-32 cps...choose your own PE. I'm going with a no growth PE of 10.5 because I believe most of the big nesting spending people have been doing at Noel Leeming is behind us and FY21 was indeed a one off bonanza not to be repeated. No doubt you'll see it differently.

... maybe better continued on the WHS thread ...

https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?514-WHS-Warehouse-Group&p=935264&viewfull=1#post935264

[Beagle]

Just to keep the discussion as well relevant for HLG (where this discussion started) ... projected average EPS in my model for HLG would be 58 cents ... which means that both shares end up with a quite similar forecasted PE (though Warehouse is still a bit cheaper). Obviously - if you think HLG will grow faster, than by all means, stay with them.

I certainly do. Glassons Australia has a clearly demonstrated 5 year history of fast growth and they even grew really fast in FY21 despite lockdowns being prevalent for significant parts of that year. HLG has a very exciting future ahead of it.

[Muse]

I certainly do. Glassons Australia has a clearly demonstrated 5 year history of fast growth and they even grew really fast in FY21 despite lockdowns being prevalent for significant parts of that year. HLG has a very exciting future ahead of it.

FY21 was a sensational for most of our retailers - Briscoes, HLG, WHS, & MHJ. All would have seen revenue, earnings & dividend growth on the prior year and very strong SP performances . Despite the visceral impact of lockdowns the redirection of tourism spend, drop in interest rates, transfer payments & economic stimulus, rental concessions, wages subsidies (for those who kept them) & wealth effect from rising house prices more than offset it for retailers. Its ironic then that fy21 while having lockdowns had probably the most supportive economic environment for retail in recent memory.

I do not see that environment continuing and while there are some very WHS specific features to WHS’ profit warning it is in my view a prelude of falling earnings for the retail sector.

[Beagle]

Glassons Australia has a clearly demonstrated 5 year history of fast growth

That's a lot longer than the flash in a pan flush that Covid's provided other retailers. I think I know this company extremely well and I disagree.

Further, I think that international travel expenditure will be severely crimped for the foreseeable future. $9 Billion a year will be spent somewhere and most of the big "nesting" spend is done and dusted . I think a lot of people have worn their wardrobes out a fair bit during lockdown too. That's how I see it mate. People want to get out and socialize again and some want to peacock and we all want to look our best doing it despite many of us having packed on the weight during lockdown and needing a new wardrobe.

[Muse]

Glassons Australia has a clearly demonstrated 5 year history of fast growth

That's a lot longer than the flash in a pan flush that Covid's provided other retailers.

Thats true. But it doesnt mean FY21 wont be a high watermark for a year or two (or three?)

[Beagle]

Thats true. But it doesnt mean FY21 wont be a high watermark for a year or two (or three?)

Two or three may be a fair call.
As I said recently mate, I foresee Covid impacting their DCF by about 20-30 cents. I have them at fair value over $10 based on the very strong growth in Australia and the huge addressable market over there. I'd like to think they can do eps of 50-55 cents in FY23 (55.86 cps in FY21) and kick on to a new high in FY24...time will tell. I have them on a prospective FY23 normalized PE of 12.8 @ $7 (ignoring any possible impact from Covid in that year) and I think that's very cheap considering the growth rate of Glassons Australia.

I'm expecting another 20-24 cent fully imputed dividend in April so we're certainly being paid so handsomely its very easy to be patient.
No stock is risk free but I think this like HGH and TRA is a classic GARP stock and growth at a reasonable price is a great place to have capital invested in a rising interest and inflation rate environment.

[Muse]

Glassons Australia has a clearly demonstrated 5 year history of fast growth

Further, I think that international travel expenditure will be severely crimped for the foreseeable future. $9 Billion a year will be spent somewhere and most of the big "nesting" spend is done and dusted . I think a lot of people have worn their wardrobes out a fair bit during lockdown too. That's how I see it mate. People want to get out and socialize again and some want to peacock and we all want to look our best doing it despite many of us having packed on the weight during lockdown and needing a new wardrobe.

Yeah I agree travel not taking off anytime soon. But I also don't think it'll remain at - well - effectively zero either. Domestic travel will soak up a little, and the australians will probably get a taste for it more quickly than the kiwis. Whatever the scale there will be a negative impact from this.

Going forward the next few years the retail sector will probably be presented with a different suite of issues to navigate, apart from covid. Namely input inflation, labour inflation, rental inflation (or at least withdrawl of landlord support), and rising interest rates (& potentially stalling housing market) - in quantities we haven't had to deal with since ~2007.

I'm in the same boat as you beagle - i hold a very large parcel in briscoes purchased at low prices. I am tempted to reduce but I don't really mind the up and downs - the company has great cashflows and history of paying strong dividends - the companies will endure and I am quite committed to maintaining my tax position. We've enjoyed superlative dividends off those purchases.

I have no doubt HLG will continue to execute well. Potentially 3 new stores in FY22 in Australia, ecommerce in america. Australian fast fashion is similar to large swaths of America, particularly california which would represent a logical geographic expansion in time. While at a cheaper end of fashion, whose customers like the value proposition (and at first glance wont like HLG passing on rising costs), they also aren't by and large heavily indebted homeowners struggling with mortgages, the economy is at full employment with entry level and early employment wages rising, so who knows glassons could have some pricing power as it will still be a comparative bargain. Glassons are on their game in terms of creating a sense of scarcity for key products and have built a great brand in australia.

no doubt HLG will navigate the changing landscape better than most. i'll be waiting in the wings for the next few years looking to average in at lower prices as they navigate them.

[Beagle]

Well said.

One thing - Store penetration in Australia is less than one fifth here so the opportunity for growth over the ditch is immense. I don't pretend to understand women's buying habits as Mrs B will readily attest, but I believe that most women like to look their best most of the time and they're generally more social than men so once they see something they like that another woman is wearing tongues wag and sales momentum creates more momentum. HLG online is second to none and that's definitely a big part of their formula for success.

As you suggest, we can afford to be quite relaxed and have almost endless patience already sitting on a portfolio balance many times what we paid, content that the dividends we reap as a function of our original purchase price are themselves already extremely rewarding. I think Rod Duke does a fabulous job but opportunities for growth in an already saturated market here with the Briscoes brand appear very limited to me. HLG appear to have materially better growth prospects and be on significantly more attractive metrics but each to their own my friend and best wishes.

[BlackPeter]

Maybe Omicron throwing a wee spanner into all this excitement:


“Sydney spending for the week to 5 Jan was at its weakest since Covid began”, says the ANZ paper. “Caution about Omicron transmission and disruptions of businesses due to staff shortages are central to the decline.”

from: https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/jan/09/too-late-now-but-let-it-rip-might-prove-tricky-for-scott-morrison-come-election-time

Obviously - could happen in NZ as well if & when we open the doors ... but so far - good that WHS stopped its Australian adventure :): Hope HLG sells lots of summer stuff over the internet and the posties don't fall sick.

[winner69]

Market expecting a pending WHS type announcement - today's share price down

Next update from HLG won't look too flash at the headline level (Glassons AU can't save the group all the time) but market reaction will prob be like WHS --- down at the open and quickly back to $7 plus ....just like WHS down at open but ending the week at $4 plus

[Playa]

Market expecting a pending WHS type announcement - today's share price down

Next update from HLG won't look too flash at the headline level (Glassons AU can't save the group all the time) but market reaction will prob be like WHS --- down at the open and quickly back to $7 plus ....just like WHS down at open but ending the week at $4 plus
Very low volume

[Waltzing]

would have thought 53000 is not too low vol for HLG...

AVG since 1 dec is 17000 daily

definitely hoping for a shocker...

[winner69]

Goodness gracious me]

From ABS Retail sales for November ...in Australia

Clothing, footwear and personal accessory retailing rose 38.2% ($847.9m) in November

And commentators are saying December was pretty strong as well

Glassons must be doing well ... better than this as they gaining share as well

[Waltzing]

not bad for a bunch of shoppers blowing their noses... maybe they were buying hankies...

my designer friend in sydney says its everywhere and not pleasant, must have been delta... but if it was OMI whatch out..

[Muse]

Goodness gracious me]

From ABS Retail sales for November ...in Australia

Clothing, footwear and personal accessory retailing rose 38.2% ($847.9m) in November

And commentators are saying December was pretty strong as well

Glassons must be doing well ... better than this as they gaining share as well


Yes, bloody impressive, as those are seasonally adjusted month on month figures (IE nov21sa vs oct21sa). BUT - those SA figures will be retrospectively adjusted (both this year and potentially ongoing) as its observed retail has shifted forward a month with supply chain disruption and online spend.
Also, notes from the AFR

Quite simply, the Australian retail sector experienced a bumper Christmas period.
“Earlier lockdowns and high household savings, along with fiscal stimulus, combined to create a high spending environment.”
“Unfortunately, that may prove short-lived, with growing evidence that spending softened towards the end of December and into January in response to the growing threat of omicron.
“Cautious households and supply shortages may weigh heavily on the retail sector through early 2022.”
November’s retail sales surge was boosted by the relaxation of delta lockdown restrictions in NSW, Victoria and the ACT, said Sean Langcake, BIS Oxford Economics senior economist.
“Concerns over stock availability and delivery times also likely contributed to the very strong November print,” he said.
“Disruptions due to the omicron variant will be limited in the December data, but they will pose a challenge in early 2022.
“Consumer caution will reduce in-store foot traffic, while disruption to supply chains and labour availability will further limit sales.”
During November consumers brought forward Christmas spending to take advantage of sales and minimise delivery and stock availability concerns ahead of the festive season, the statistics office said.

Also noting post OMNI spend - an article on jan 7 2022, that spending tanked as omni spread on. sadly in this environment for every sensational piece of news there seems to be an equally counterbalancing one

Nationally, spending across dining and shopping dropped 39 per cent in the first week of 2022, compared to the week ended December 24.


“The data shows starkly how behaviour is impacted by surging case numbers even without government intervention,” said David Plank, Head of Australian Economics at ANZ.
Mr Plank said the omicron wave is “a bump” in Australia’s path to recovery, but its economic impact would depend on the length and severity of the current outbreak.
“A big issue this time is there is no government support as we aren’t formally in lockdown. It will be interesting to see how governments, federal and state, respond to this.
“If that policy remains in place, and we get a sustained period of self-imposed restrictions and lockdowns, that could mean the recovery will be a lot slower because we don’t have that additional fiscal support.”
Spending has also fallen sharply in Queensland, South Australia and Western Australia following the Christmas trading period. The data showed spending on dining in Queensland and Western Australia resembled previous lockdown conditions.
ANZ senior economist Adelaide Timbrell said the drop in spending was not about consumers’ wanting to save money, but the fear of contracting the virus.“Australia’s consumers have faced low unemployment and strong financial confidence coming into the new year, so it’s very unlikely that this downfall has anything to do with finances,” Ms Timbrell said.
“The big issue is caution about going out in public, and access to hospitality, which has been disrupted by staff shortages and omicron outbreaks.”
Commonwealth Bank head of Australian economics Gareth Aird said it was “far too early” to say the drop in spending will have a long-lasting negative impact on the economy.
He estimated there could be as many as 1 million people isolating in NSW – out of a population of 8 million – who cannot spend money on services or goods, other than what they can have delivered to their home.
“The faster case surge, the more people are self-isolating at any point in time, the more you’re going to have a very concentrated negative hit to spend in the economy,” he said.
Mr Aird expected spending will bounce back once the peak of infections passes and people recover from their illness.
Ramsay Health Care said on Friday that the latest restrictions on elective surgeries in the omicron-hit states of NSW and Victoria may have a material impact on its full-year results if they are as prolonged as the restrictions during last year’s delta outbreak.

[LaserEyeKiwi]

Yes Omicron is definitely throwing a curveball into all businesses at present - purely due to staffing disruptions. Amazing seeing the number of cancelled flights across the USA due to simply not having enough flight crews due to so many people having to isolate.

[Waltzing]

The have a specific vaccine rolling out in march.. but that still takes 6 to 12 months to get around the world.. Its another 12 months of unknowns..

lucky the AUSSI shopper doesnt seem to have been bed ridden yet.

[percy]

The have a specific vaccine rolling out in march.. but that still takes 6 to 12 months to get around the world.. Its another 12 months of unknowns..

lucky the AUSSI shopper doesnt seem to have been bed ridden yet.

They can shop at Glassons online from their beds...lol.

[bull....]

Goodness gracious me]

From ABS Retail sales for November ...in Australia

Clothing, footwear and personal accessory retailing rose 38.2% ($847.9m) in November

And commentators are saying December was pretty strong as well

Glassons must be doing well ... better than this as they gaining share as well

of course the data your referring to is 2 mths old , current data suggests retail spend is doing badly due to staff shortages etc spending has slumped to covid lock down levels

[Waltzing]

Gotta say MR P's go getta attitude brightens up the investing day...

Next summer then if inflation doesnt hit the piggy banks to hard..

The sydney designer on badger was only knocked out for a week.. she says sales are still going well for them in women's under garments..

[percy]

Gotta say MR P's go getta attitude brightens up the investing day...

Next summer then if inflation doesnt hit the piggy banks to hard..

The sydney designer on badger was only knocked out for a week.. she says sales are still going well for them in women's under garments..

What,Aussie women still wearing under garments.?..lol.
Skimpy?

[Waltzing]

Some designs modelled by the Hong Kong Ballet before the exodus.

[winner69]

Last we heard from HLG was sales down 10% after 20 weeks and profit 'significantly impacted'

Suppose no more updates is good news -- result not going to be any worse than 'significantly impacted'

How much 'significantly impacted'?

If sales pick up in last six weeks of half year I reckon H122 npat will be $15m plus or minus a bit - not too shabby compared to $19.8m last year

Hope they still screwing the landlords really big time - Warren seemed quite pleased how his henchmen were going in this respect

[Waltzing]

Can we get a 6.50 handle for a short time, have to be a buy...

[LaserEyeKiwi]

Clever buyers with long term horizons are looking past the short term covid impacts, and focusing on the underlying business fundamentals (for all companies, not just HLG). Wont be long before 2020-2022 will be looked back on as one of those weird blips we see on long term GDP & Earnings charts, along with the 2008/09 GFC & 2000-01 Tech crash/sep11 combo.

As long as companies have solid fundamentals and have managed to navigate the last 2 years without needing to dilute shareholders etc, no reason not to base investing on longer term earnings prospects for 2023 and beyond.

[winner69]

Clever buyers with long term horizons are looking past the short term covid impacts, and focusing on the underlying business fundamentals (for all companies, not just HLG). Wont be long before 2020-2022 will be looked back on as one of those weird blips we see on long term GDP & Earnings charts, along with the 2008/09 GFC & 2000-01 Tech crash/sep11 combo.

As long as companies have solid fundamentals and have managed to navigate the last 2 years without needing to dilute shareholders etc, no reason not to base investing on longer term earnings prospects for 2023 and beyond.

So true LEK ...... but may some 'clever buyers' are hopefully waiting for the (inevitable) big dips that happen after each 'crisis'

If panic sets in could see $3/$4 again .... that be nice

[Waltzing]

dont see panic but NZ hasnt been exposed to anything much yet. You dont know how the investors will react if it rips... booster shoots cut the transmission rate by a large percentage apparently and thats why the border will stay closed for a while yet.. April open? maybe not until June...

[tzbang]

FWIW

"Wesfarmers discount chains, Kmart and Target, are the latest retailers to take a hit as the Omicron variant scares away shoppers and disrupts deliveries — The discount retailers will not be alone with their Omicron woes."

“Shopping mall foot traffic is below prior years ... the virus outbreak coincided with the start of Christmas and will have disrupted Boxing Day sales."

"...retailers are getting disrupted by a shortage of essential staff to process and distribute these goods,” Macquarie said, referring to recent updates from Woolworths, chicken supplier Ingham’s and clothing store City Chic."

https://www.theage.com.au/business/companies/wesfarmers-says-kmart-target-hit-by-covid-surge-20220117-p59orb.html

[dreamcatcher]

Retail sector – Booming salesAs per Stats NZ, New Zealanders spent an additional NZ$543 million in the retail industries in November 2021 alone, compared to October. The momentum continued in late December and early January when shoppers flocked the markets for holiday celebrations.Retail sales are generally the earliest to spike with increasing consumer confidence in the economy. As soon as restrictions eased, consumers crowded the markets, cooling off some pent-up demand for goods and services. Additionally, the holiday season added to the consumer frenzy, providing the perfect setup for consumers to relieve their long-built demand.The period between year-end and New year was marked with heavy core retail sales, which broke records seen in pre-Covid times. Thus, the markets are experiencing booming demand, with shoppers quenching their longstanding needs to buy consumer goods.

Is New Zealand Economy On The Way Up? | Scoop News (https://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/BU2201/S00144/is-new-zealand-economy-on-the-way-up.htm)

[tzbang]

Two quite different retail sector reports between AU and NZ — looking across to S'traya give an idea of what to expect once omicron takes off here perhaps

[Waltzing]

If the country gets boosted by april / may then NZ may come out of this pretty well and the big sick might be the Big Near Miss.

NZ could scrap through and retail NOT take the HIT everyone thinks.

[LaserEyeKiwi]

If the country gets boosted by april / may then NZ may come out of this pretty well and the big sick might be the Big Near Miss.

NZ could scrap through and retail NOT take the HIT everyone thinks.

If it was just Delta I think NZ has proved it had an amazing response when you look at our current situation: daily cases in the low double figures and vaccination rate in the mid-nineties.

Unfortunately Australia has similar vaccination rates as NZ and Omicron has just swept through NSW & VIC like a hot knife through butter. Fortunately they look to be peaking, or have just past the peak, with over a million active cases at one point last week (5% of Australia’s population with active covid at the same time!). Fortunately their health system hasn’t collapsed, despite the tragic multiple dozens of deaths per day, but their supply chain disruptions and temporary staffing shortages due to isolating people are severe.

I think NZ will face the same situation very soon. I use to be an optimist on NZ remaining in fantastic shape fighting CV, but Omicron is just far too infectious for anyones prevention strategies to 100% succeed with.

[Waltzing]

Yep LEK i certainly wont not say your going to be wrong..

[Beagle]

If it was just Delta I think NZ has proved it had an amazing response when you look at our current situation: daily cases in the low double figures and vaccination rate in the mid-nineties.

Unfortunately Australia has similar vaccination rates as NZ and Omicron has just swept through NSW & VIC like a hot knife through butter. Fortunately they look to be peaking, or have just past the peak, with over a million active cases at one point last week (5% of Australia’s population with active covid at the same time!). Fortunately their health system hasn’t collapsed, despite the tragic multiple dozens of deaths per day, but their supply chain disruptions and temporary staffing shortages due to isolating people are severe.

I think NZ will face the same situation very soon. I use to be an optimist on NZ remaining in fantastic shape fighting CV, but Omicron is just far too infectious for anyones prevention strategies to 100% succeed with.

I'm on record as saying Covid will have a 20-30 cents per share effect on HLG's DCF valuation and most of it this year and next. The difference between this and some other retailers is Glassons Australia was for years growing very strongly before Covid and its almost certain that will continue afterwards.
Any untoward weakness is something I will see as a buying opportunity.

[Waltzing]

" this year and next"

Phizzzer has some new Gue coming that handle multiple bugs at one time. The future is bright.

[Muse]

" this year and next"

Phizzzer has some new Gue coming that handle multiple bugs at one time. The future is bright.

they have anything that works for inflation & interest rates hoovering up discretionary spending? was speaking with a friend - apparently paid acquisition costs (ie instagram, google etc) for retail in australia have blown through the roof the last few months.

[Waltzing]

flow on effect to supply chain if you can kill two or more bugs with one flavour of squirt..

Jab! Got ya's...

HLG will be back to selling those hot items ....

[Muse]

back to selling those hot items ....

think you might be smoking some of the product you are meant to be selling

[Waltzing]

Amended post.

Dont smoke unless you want to compete on some mountain hill climbs and you can smoke us on the down hill. Not a down hiller and the deep south should have some good down hillers.

[winner69]

they have anything that works for inflation & interest rates hoovering up discretionary spending? was speaking with a friend - apparently paid acquisition costs (ie instagram, google etc) for retail in australia have blown through the roof the last few months.

I see Glassons now has 691,000 followers

Wonder how many were ones they paid to get ……..and not the chick who loved Glassons and followed them on her own free will.

[winner69]

Interesting question that was once posed to me - Who needs customers when you have friends, fans and followers?

[winner69]

Wonder if Forager Funds still hold HLG

They were in love with them a couple of years ago …a real Peter Lynch type stock they said …suppose that’s a complement.

[winner69]

I think Forager may have given HLG the boot

They still have Michael Hill by looks of it

[Waltzing]

Bottom of article... growth going forward.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/127527206/business-confidence-falls-sharply-inflation-worries-rise

[dreamcatcher]

Latest Covid vaccination data stats with under 12's now eligible from yesterday .....told 60000 already booked as school starts in 3 weeks.

https://www.health.govt.nz/our-work/diseases-and-conditions/covid-19-novel-coronavirus/covid-19-data-and-statistics/covid-19-vaccine-data

Disc:hold

[Muse]

Bottom of article... growth going forward.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/127527206/business-confidence-falls-sharply-inflation-worries-rise

That was all pretty ugly reading, no?
Just finished an AFR article - "WORST JANUARY CONSUMER CONFIDENCE RESULT SINCE 1992"
https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/worst-january-consumer-confidence-result-since-1992-20220118-p59p43

[Muse]

Interesting question that was once posed to me - Who needs customers when you have friends, fans and followers?

Shareholders.

[winner69]

HLG share price holding well ….no worries here

[Waltzing]

"That was all pretty ugly reading, no?"

BETS to look forward to next summer for HLG and RP CURL results mean while enjoy summer weather.

2 years of isolation and shut borders may have dented spirits of the inmates.

Or is it going to be 3 years? Losing count; whos counting by now anyway.

The decisions makers forgot to include a fun factor clinical head shrinker while keeping everyone inside leaky tourist hotels and the inhabitants of the hermit kingdom locked up and gone fishing .

20 mastercraft water wake boats imported last year each retail for 300G.

Now thats retail and of course they all want to wear Rip Curl.

[winner69]

Stats NZ Card Spend December month --- Apparel up 4.1% on prior year (core retail up 3.6% on pcp)

HLG financial year to date id August thru December - for this period Apparel down 16%. In Australia Clothing is slightly up for 4 months Aug thru Nov.

Allowing for a reasonable January in NZ and some sector growth in Australia and allowing for Glassons share gains I reckon HLG half year sales will be close to $171m - down $11m on F21

So that's Gross Margin down $6.5m.

Add in some extra expense it could will be NPAT will be down $5m to $6m on last years $19.8m

Hope market understands this not made .... at least they haven't really reacted badly to the 'significantly' down comment HLG made

Then again I might be completely wrong and profit might be down less or maybe heaps more.

[LaserEyeKiwi]

Stats NZ Card Spend December month --- Apparel up 4.1% on prior year (core retail up 3.6% on pcp)

HLG financial year to date id August thru December - for this period Apparel down 16%. In Australia Clothing is slightly up for 4 months Aug thru Nov.

Allowing for a reasonable January in NZ and some sector growth in Australia and allowing for Glassons share gains I reckon HLG half year sales will be close to $171m - down $11m on F21

So that's Gross Margin down $6.5m.

Add in some extra expense it could will be NPAT will be down $5m to $6m on last years $19.8m

Hope market understands this not made .... at least they haven't really reacted badly to the 'significantly' down comment HLG made

Then again I might be completely wrong and profit might be down less or maybe heaps more.

Dec-Jan Australia HLG revenue will be impacted by Omicron - early reporting on Dec/early jan is “a softening” “similar to impact of the delta outbreak”

Its also happening in QLD & SA too, so is more widespread.

[nztx]

HLG share price holding well ….no worries here


indeed currently one of the few green in a vast sea of red :)

[winner69]

Dec-Jan Australia HLG revenue will be impacted by Omicron - early reporting on Dec/early jan is “a softening” “similar to impact of the delta outbreak”

Its also happening in QLD & SA too, so is more widespread.

Could well be the case

A bad Dec/Jan in OZ and HLG profit could be as low as $10m

Market reaction to 'Hallenstein Glassons report 50% decline in profit' = buying opportunity for long term holders of a $10 stock

[winner69]

This is better news re Australia …might not be all doom and gloom after all

Westpac Card Tracker rose 3.5pts to 108.4 over the week ending Jan 15. The gain still leaves the index well below the 111-12 levels seen in the two weeks prior to Christmas but suggests that more of the weakness seen since then is due to seasonal timing issues rather than omicron-related slowing. At 108.4, the latest weekly read means annual growth in card activity is running 8.4ppts above its pre-COVID pace.

[Waltzing]

yes but the top secret GOVT report of the complete swapping of the NZ health system might see a major disruption to retail for a few months.

might be time to bump NZ only retail stocks and move to US oil... whoops a few months to late... better late then never.

[clearasmud]

yes but the top secret GOVT report of the complete swapping of the NZ health system might see a major disruption to retail for a few months.

might be time to bump NZ only retail stocks and move to US oil... whoops a few months to late... better late then never.

Except that's not the experience is it.
This is mild for vaccinated persons, it doesn't attack the lungs and cause breathing issues.

[winner69]

The Stats NZ Electronic Card Spend data over the years has some interesting insights

Here's one chart of Apparel sales and Durables sales. Annual sales numbers since 2017

Apparel retailing not a growth sector - even before covid saes were flat and still to recover to pre-covid levels, I'd hazzard a gues that lost sales from lock downs are gone forever

Durables (Includes furniture, hardware, and appliance and other sectors but excludes food, vehicle, travel, entertainment etc) on the other hand saw sales dip through lockdowns in 2020 but recovered extremely well and are still above trend

Yep clothing retailing in NZ not a growth industry .... and Hallensteins and Glassons sales in NZ reflect that

[Waltzing]

BRISC is the only NZ retail now held except for a now very small HLG (a proxy Aus stock) that is basically just waiting for AVE down.

Dumped all other retail except some EBO for medical.

[LaserEyeKiwi]

The Stats NZ Electronic Card Spend data over the years has some interesting insights

Here's one chart of Apparel sales and Durables sales. Annual sales numbers since 2017

Apparel retailing not a growth sector - even before covid saes were flat and still to recover to pre-covid levels, I'd hazzard a gues that lost sales from lock downs are gone forever

Durables (Includes furniture, hardware, and appliance and other sectors but excludes food, vehicle, travel, entertainment etc) on the other hand saw sales dip through lockdowns in 2020 but recovered extremely well and are still above trend

Yep clothing retailing in NZ not a growth industry .... and Hallensteins and Glassons sales in NZ reflect that

Would be interested to see how this is calculated exactly. My better half, despite her high income, buys a lot of clothes from Kmart which has increased its store footprint significantly over the last 5 years in NZ - does that growth in sales get recorded as Apparel, or does all Kmart sales growth show up as “Durables” instead? Same question for other big box retailers (warehouse, farmers etc) and also outdoor/sport stores (Rebel, T7 etc)

[winner69]

Would be interested to see how this is calculated exactly. My better half, despite her high income, buys a lot of clothes from Kmart which has increased its store footprint significantly over the last 5 years in NZ - does that growth in sales get recorded as Apparel, or does all Kmart sales growth show up as “Durables” instead? Same question for other big box retailers (warehouse, farmers etc) and also outdoor/sport stores (Rebel, T7 etc)

Sector / industry breakdown not always that clear for this survey and for the Retail Trade Survey

Generally its based on primary activity - so Red Sheds / K Mart for instance are reported in the Retail Trade numbers as Department stores (and I'm told as Durables in this survey). So your partners clothes purchases from Kmart not in Apparel but

Stats NZ always a bit loathe to answer specific questions s to whose in waht sector citing confidentiality so you have to second guess but if they are consistent in their classifications it gives one an idea of whats going on.

[Waltzing]

Healthy jobs report in AUS... all good for GLS.

[fastbike]

really its a BARGAIN still...



Quote from 6 Dec. What difference 6 weeks makes. I see some buying opportunities ahead at less than $6.

[Waltzing]

Winner will no doubt report the next stats in AUS in feb. OMI sure came HOME in Aus and its effects on retail will turn up shortly in the numbers.

[winner69]

Glassons influencer Jade Tuncdoruk (@jadetunchy) bit of a loose cannon. Once found by the watch dogs to have breached the Code owing to lacking transparency of a paid partnership with Glassons.

Jade back in news again
https://www.news.com.au/travel/travel-updates/travel-stories/twist-in-influencer-jade-tuncdoruks-refund-demand-saga/news-story/a7b99d3c98a6bc550d974e4232a84406

No worries -- as long as she managed to get a few of her 487,000 followers to buy some Glassons gear ...and that Glassons 'investment' in her had a decent return

[Waltzing]

Its the Chart winner...

if its the chart then it's soon time to sell...

history repeats and up to this point in time history repeats...

[dreamcatcher]

Some experts suggesting Australian omicron wave has peaked would be good news ..........

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jan/21/australias-omicron-wave-has-likely-peaked-in-nsw-and-victoria-some-experts-say

[Waltzing]

Winner look at HLG since 2000 and draw the line on the Bottom of the X thing...... and see where we are going...

unless history never repeats..or doesnt repeat for ever..

[fastbike]

Here we go ... current sell price is 660

Where to from here ?

[Grimy]

6.55 and below........

[winner69]

Here we go ... current sell price is 660

Where to from here ?

Somewhere between 300 and 400

General market malaise and an upcoming poor sales update and it could get there pretty quick

[Waltzing]

3 ? cant wait....dont be so encouraging....bottom of the chart winner back to 2000's... under 3.

[winner69]

3 ? cant wait....dont be so encouraging....bottom of the chart winner back to 2000's... under 3.

but each low a bit higher than previous one ..... you could say HLG is in a multi decade UPTREND:t_up:

[Waltzing]

" multi decade UPTREND"

well yes ... youve nailed it.... better look at the entrails again and see where the new bottom is... need large piece of chart paper...

[Muse]

Somewhere between 300 and 400

General market malaise and an upcoming poor sales update and it could get there pretty quick

down 1.39 from its 52 week high yikes

[winner69]

Beagle said last week he away for a few days ..... hope he back soon as somebody has to support HLG share price

[Waltzing]

Hoping the support gets regular beatings...

[winner69]

" multi decade UPTREND"

well yes ... youve nailed it.... better look at the entrails again and see where the new bottom is... need large piece of chart paper...

Found a HUGE piece of graph paper ...... this low on the multi decade UPTREND will be $3.39


Unless it sinks to $2.20 like it did in one day in March 2020 .... you know that famous day

[Waltzing]

famous work winner... famous work...3.39 it is then... one day if we lucky...

prob someone's ave price held since 2000...

[Beagle]

Somewhere between 300 and 400

General market malaise and an upcoming poor sales update and it could get there pretty quick

What's changed since I left on Thursday ? Answer, nothing. We always knew the Govt's determination to pander to those overseas by bringing in hundreds of infected cases would lead to a leak at the border. It was always an inevitability. I think you're dreaming of hoping to get these at the prices you've mentioned.

[Waltzing]

HLG not hammered as much as BRIS proxy AUS dollar.

[winner69]

Fellow rag trade outfit Premier reported H1 sales and earnings growth v pcp

If HLG can do the same that will be good

Maybe the 'significant decline' HLG talked about was only a just in case thing and we will be happy as with improved earnings


https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02479118-3A585961?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a3 9ff4

[850man]

SP on a slide this past week.... any thoughts on where it will bottom out?

[LaserEyeKiwi]

SP on a slide this past week.... any thoughts on where it will bottom out?

Will probably have to wait until at least a couple of months for the Omicron wave to reach its peak (along with peak deaths/peak fear and peak staffing shortage/temporary store closures). At least Australia is coming out of their peak wave now.

[nztx]

famous work winner... famous work...3.39 it is then... one day if we lucky...

prob someone's ave price held since 2000...


moving that way Waltzing - very soon the late 5's might be present :)

[850man]

moving that way Waltzing - very soon the late 5's might be present :)

A bit of support at $6 but nothing at all above or below that right now

[see weed]

SP on a slide this past week.... any thoughts on where it will bottom out?
HLG due to go ex div in about 8 weeks time, that might help stop the slide a wee bit.

[Waltzing]

about 5.80 is the next support level..

then 4.80

if you did not lighten up over JAN on NZ retail its probably a bit late now.

except EBO of course.

unless your AVG price for HLG goes back to 2000.

[Rawz]

As per 2022 stock picking thread Beagle has sold out of HLG. Probably been pushing sp down as he offload his hoard of shares.

Beagle said HLG worth 10 bucks. That still holds true but has to go to 4 bucks first :p

[Beagle]

As per 2022 stock picking thread Beagle has sold out of HLG. Probably been pushing sp down as he offload his hoard of shares.

Beagle said HLG worth 10 bucks. That still holds true but has to go to 4 bucks first :p

LOL in your dreams its gets to 4. I didn't say that. FM asked me which stocks I was still holding the same number of shares in....so yes I have reduced my HLG stake a little but still hold a decent stake.

[see weed]

Nice 20,000 buy at 6.25, is that you Beagle?

[Rawz]

Nice 20,000 buy at 6.25, is that you Beagle?

More likely Beagle on the other end of it

Retail in troubled waters

[see weed]

As per 2022 stock picking thread Beagle has sold out of HLG. Probably been pushing sp down as he offload his hoard of shares.

Beagle said HLG worth 10 bucks. That still holds true but has to go to 4 bucks first :p
I sold a few, but must remember you only need to buy or sell 5,000 or 10,000 and it could push sp up or down 10c to 20c. So I helped push sp down, but will help push it up again half way through March ;)

[Beagle]

More likely Beagle on the other end of it

Retail in troubled waters

Wasn't me...I am already very defensive with a radically high and extremely defensive portfolio allocation to cash and short term deposits.

[Waltzing]

smash up ... with the border coming down or being smashed apart this could get very interesting into the next 6 to 12 months.

some very low prices might turn up in the panic , steadying selling on the retail stocks starting.. and KIP being hammered and Brisc..ect

only EBO standing up.

[winner69]

From Oz ..ABS report for December

Clothing, footwear and personal accessory retailing fell 17.3% (-$531.2m) in December, in seasonally adjusted terms.

In actual terms down 8% on pcp and for HLG year (Aug/Dec) also down 8% on pcp

Probably can't expect miracles from Glassons this half year

[Rawz]

smash up ... with the border coming down or being smashed apart this could get very interesting into the next 6 to 12 months.

some very low prices might turn up in the panic , steadying selling on the retail stocks starting.. and KIP being hammered and Brisc..ect

only EBO standing up.

Only EBO standing up? Come on Waltz.. you know the king of retail MHJ is the one true retailer standing up.. only down 5.3% ytd. MHJ the one retail stock that everyone forgets about. W69 says its time is coming thou :ohmy:

Retailer YTD
MHJ= -5.33%
TRA= -7.44%
EBO= -7.51%
KMD= -8.61%
HLG= -11.86%
BGP= -14.89%
WHS= -25.43%

Interesting that the more cheap/ FMCG you sell the more the market has punished you..

[nztx]

Only EBO standing up? Come on Waltz.. you know the king of retail MHJ is the one true retailer standing up.. only down 5.3% ytd. MHJ the one retail stock that everyone forgets about. W69 says its time is coming thou :ohmy:

Retailer YTD
MHJ= -5.33%
TRA= -7.44%
EBO= -7.51%
KMD= -8.61%
HLG= -11.86%
BGP= -14.89%
WHS= -25.43%

Interesting that the more cheap/ FMCG you sell the more the market has punished you..


I'd happily forget MHJ :)

[winner69]

Only EBO standing up? Come on Waltz.. you know the king of retail MHJ is the one true retailer standing up.. only down 5.3% ytd. MHJ the one retail stock that everyone forgets about. W69 says its time is coming thou :ohmy:

Retailer YTD
MHJ= -5.33%
TRA= -7.44%
EBO= -7.51%
KMD= -8.61%
HLG= -11.86%
BGP= -14.89%
WHS= -25.43%

Interesting that the more cheap/ FMCG you sell the more the market has punished you..

Rawz - you didn't include RBD --- uP year to date

[Rawz]

I'd happily forget MHJ :)

I understand :)

I think some seasoned investors have bad memories of MHJ screwing it up. I only know of them hitting home runs :t_up:

Turnaround stories aint for everyone

[nztx]

I understand :)

I think some seasoned investors have bad memories of MHJ screwing it up. I only know of them hitting home runs :t_up:

Turnaround stories aint for everyone


probably only in times of a blue moon and a seriously deep Covid dip coinciding :)

[Waltzing]

"retail MHJ is the one true retailer standing up"

well Mr B has alluded to the shopper coming under pressure and may have a wee bit late to realise that if the Next Variant coughs over into air waves even faster.

The big sick might be like a rolling black out in country's.

That might kick the retail shopper to the side lines as they suddenly hunker down in the HUT and forget to shop!!!

For a while anyway and all retail stocks except EBO take a hit.

Pairs of underpants keep selling and socks mitten and jackets but your loved one engagement finger gets let ring less for a QTR.....

Sell MHJ now and rebuy in 6 months if the market updates recover.

[nztx]

"retail MHJ is the one true retailer standing up"

well Mr B has alluded to the shopper coming under pressure and may have a wee bit late to realise that if the Next Variant coughs over into air waves even faster.

The big sick might be like a rolling black out in country's.

That might kick the retail shopper to the side lines as they suddenly hunker down in the HUT and forget to shop!!!

For a while anyway and all retail stocks except EBO take a hit.

Pairs of underpants keep selling and socks mitten and jackets but your loved one engagement finger gets let ring less for a QTR.....

Sell MHJ now and rebuy in 6 months if the market updates recover.


seems good strategy Waltzing - 'protecting what's been gained' in face of coming storm clouds :)

[Waltzing]

well the boosted rocket after burners are about to be lit and will it save retail is the question.

[dreamcatcher]

"Clothing, footwear and personal accessory retailing had the largest rise, surging 43.1 per cent, while spending on cafes, restaurants and takeaway food services also soared 18.8 per cent during the December quarter."

Record retail sales in December quarter - The Bull


(https://thebull.com.au/record-retail-sales-in-december-quarter/)

[Beagle]

"clothing, footwear and personal accessory retailing had the largest rise, surging 43.1 per cent, while spending on cafes, restaurants and takeaway food services also soared 18.8 per cent during the december quarter."

record retail sales in december quarter - the bull


(https://thebull.com.au/record-retail-sales-in-december-quarter/)

Wow !!!!!!!

[LaserEyeKiwi]

"Clothing, footwear and personal accessory retailing had the largest rise, surging 43.1 per cent, while spending on cafes, restaurants and takeaway food services also soared 18.8 per cent during the December quarter."

Record retail sales in December quarter - The Bull
(https://thebull.com.au/record-retail-sales-in-december-quarter/)


It’s not quite as impressive when you realize they are talking about quarter on quarter increase with that +43% figure, which is primarily due to the previous quarter being such a trough.

A bit of an odd release - the charts dont look very good, but keeping in mind it was in the middle of Omicron outbreak then it does look pretty good. They hide the year on year data a bit, but still some low percentage growth there for December.

13492
13493

[winner69]

WOW - December qtr sales up 43% truly impressive --- in seasonally adjusted terms

Actual sales for quarter were up 7% on pcp - the September quarter sales were down 17% on pcp

Pertinent to Glassons AU is that Aug/Dec (HLG year starts August) sales up 0.1% on pcp

With Glassons gain share at a fast rate of knots and with their superior online offering Glassons should have had a pretty solid 5 months and half year could be close to +10% up

Taken footwear out of the numbers so just clothing

[LaserEyeKiwi]

WOW - December qtr sales up 43% truly impressive --- in seasonally adjusted terms

Actual sales for quarter were up 7% on pcp - the September quarter sales were down 17% on pcp

Pertinent to Glassons AU is that Aug/Dec (HLG year starts August) sales up 0.1% on pcp

With Glassons gain share at a fast rate of knots and with their superior online offering Glassons should have had a pretty solid 5 months and half year could be close to +10% up

Taken footwear out of the numbers so just clothing

You think? Even with Auckland being in lockdown with retail closed for 3 months? (Mid-August to Mid-November)

[Waltzing]

what on earth does this share think its doing. Obviously AUS is breaking new shopping records.

[winner69]

You think? Even with Auckland being in lockdown with retail closed for 3 months? (Mid-August to Mid-November)

My bad - was referring to Glassons AU

Yes, NZ will be down .... maybe even a disaster


Word out though sales were good judging by share price

[Rawz]

If sales are good this goes to $7
If sales are bad this goes to $4

[Beagle]

If sales are good this goes to $7
If sales are bad this goes to $4

My view remains that on a DCF valuation basis Covid might affect the valuation by about 30 cps. Maybe a little higher if Covid effects linger longer.
The rest of the share price movement is sentiment.

[nztx]

what on earth does this share think its doing. Obviously AUS is breaking new shopping records.



Tried to fix that today Waltzing .. it's so thinly traded that just few may help huh ? :)

[winner69]

Suppose we’ll get an update before they announce half year late March

Wonder how much that ‘significant’ shortfall they mentioned will be?

Briscoes has less sales and profits in Aug/Jan period than last which doesn’t bode well for HLG in NZ ….c’mon Glassons AU, pull the group out of the crap (again)

[Muse]

Suppose we’ll get an update before they announce half year late March

Wonder how much that ‘significant’ shortfall they mentioned will be?

Briscoes has less sales and profits in Aug/Jan period than last which doesn’t bode well for HLG in NZ ….c’mon Glassons AU, pull the group out of the crap (again)

I don’t recall them saying ‘significant shortfall’?? Just that the year would be adversely impacted compared to the prior year. Both imply down, but one reads worse than the other

[winner69]

Kathmandu said H1 sales were flat v pcp and said they were likely report a loss for H1 (EBITDA of $9m must be a loss at NPAT?)

Good thing about that announcement from a HLG perspective was that although the NZX was almost down 2% the KMD share price went up.

Market starting to look through covid stuff .... good sign for HLG share price when they have an update

[Waltzing]

kmd up on markets weakness . and more weakness coming.

[Beagle]

Suppose we’ll get an update before they announce half year late March

Wonder how much that ‘significant’ shortfall they mentioned will be?

Briscoes has less sales and profits in Aug/Jan period than last which doesn’t bode well for HLG in NZ ….c’mon Glassons AU, pull the group out of the crap (again)

Last year they came out with a trading update and half year profit forecast on 17 February.

[Rawz]

I have a really bad feeling about this update coming. Could send the sp into a spiral . Hope I am wrong

[Beagle]

These are tricky waters to navigate for sure. On a look through Covid basis this is great value but sentiment in the near term is something I acknowledge is challenging.

[nztx]

These are tricky waters to navigate for sure. On a look through Covid basis this is great value but sentiment in the near term is something I acknowledge is challenging.


My thoughts too - carrying a small reduced holding until the clouds start clearing

That said, if anyone can make it through the storm - HLG will IMO

[winner69]

Last year they came out with a trading update and half year profit forecast on 17 February.

Probably be one of those late Friday afternoon and hope nobody will notice announcements

Share price on fire last week - punters must be expecting good news

Up 8% of its recent low .... not many, if any, on NZX can boast that sort of effort over the last few weeks

[Beagle]

Hope its a Thursday or Friday morning announcement. Market saying it will be.

[Waltzing]

Surley Mr B if they dont cut the DIV well its got a nice price right here.

[Beagle]

Surley Mr B if they dont cut the DIV well its got a nice price right here.

Its no secret I really like this company and the way management go about managing it and growing it in a very carefully measured and risk averse way. Frankly its a brilliant textbook example of diligence and careful prudence. Looking through the near term challenges of Omricon, those hunting for a company that will pay them reliable high dividends need look no further.

This morning I took a deep breath and decided I cannot stay in ~ 70% cash forever, that's got to be a temporary position that slowly comes down so I asked myself which is the most reliable and most prudently managed company I know of ? Which company has the track record to deserve my trust the most ? Which company has been around since Adam was a boy and which company I can sleep most comfortably with despite the current environment and perhaps the most important question of all, which company can I trust are always acting in the best interests of shareholders without any unnecessary ESG and other politically correct nonsense ?

There is no question in my mind that HLG is that company. Sure they face some challenges at present but my mother, (bless her), often used to say there's always sunshine after rain and one day this Covid storm will abate and before that day arrives HLG shares will no longer be "on sale"

[Waltzing]

warm fuzzies.... well if the result is a shocker a BUY on the DIP.... :t_up:

a BUY anyway...

[winner69]

Beagle is after this feed

Through thick and thin decent dividends from HLG

AVERAGED OVER 30 CENTS LAST 15 YEARS ..... BUTLOOK WHATS HAPPENED SINCE DI FIXED GLASSONS UP

[Beagle]

What a beautiful image, picture says a thousand words, thanks for sharing. Even in the depths of the GFC they paid a decent dividend compared to the share price of the time. Really simple to understand their financial statements too. I like simple uncomplicated companies with no debt who pay huge dividends. HLG a classic dividend hounds stock which suits me "purrfectly"

[nztx]

What a beautiful image, picture says a thousand words, thanks for sharing. Even in the depths of the GFC they paid a decent dividend compared to the share price of the time. Really simple to understand their financial statements too. I like simple uncomplicated companies with no debt who pay huge dividends. HLG a classic dividend hounds stock which suits me "purrfectly"


Agree with you there :)

[Waltzing]

When the FA is full of Notes to this table and that table its ups the usual suspects.

why OCA got the boot..

[Beagle]

Beagle is after this feed

Through thick and thin decent dividends from HLG

AVERAGED OVER 30 CENTS LAST 15 YEARS ..... BUTLOOK WHATS HAPPENED SINCE DI FIXED GLASSONS UP

My take on this is that its arguably more appropriate to take the average since Glassons Australia really got going. Average annual dividend since then has been 43.5 cps.

[winner69]

My take on this is that its arguably more appropriate to take the average since Glassons Australia really got going. Average annual dividend since then has been 43.5 cps.

That Di really did a great job in sorting out Glassons,esp getting things moving in ⁵Aussie

Never got the credit she deserved

[Beagle]

That Di really did a great job in sorting out Glassons,esp getting things moving in ⁵Aussie

Never got the credit she deserved

https://www.directbroking.co.nz/DirectTrade/dynamic/announcement.aspx?id=4522898

She wasn't there for long when she did come back, just 18 months.
Gassons Australia sales
FY17 $50.0m (Di left almost immediately after year end)
FY18 $78.4m
FY19 $89.5m
FY20 $96.7m
FY21 $133.7m

I guess you could argue that Di laid the ground work but what seems inarguable is that James Glasson looks like he's been doing a stellar job ever since !
I have more respect for people who stick around and get the job done properly.

[winner69]

https://www.directbroking.co.nz/DirectTrade/dynamic/announcement.aspx?id=4522898

She wasn't there for long when she did come back, just 18 months.
Gassons Australia sales
FY17 $50.0m (Di left almost immediately after year end)
FY18 $78.4m
FY19 $89.5m
FY20 $96.7m
FY21 $133.7m

I guess you could argue that Di laid the ground work but what seems inarguable is that James Glasson looks like he's been doing a stellar job ever since !
I have more respect for people who stick around and get the job done properly.

I get the impression that Popplewell et al pleaded (like got on their knees and said please please) with Di to get her to come back and sort Glassons Australia out. Popplewell did say getting her was a 'coup'

Glassons AU back then had sales of about $40m and was losing money - fix it Di and your job is done was the brief

Two years on Glassons AU turnover had doubled and prfoit was 10% of sales ..... amazing job Di ... well done Di

Yep James has kept the momentum going .....2019 and 2020 were OKish years but not stellar .... and he got lucky in 2021.

2022 will be Jame's big test

[trader_jackson]

https://www.nzx.com/instruments/HLG

Wow profits have almost halved, yet the share price is within 15% of its record high ($7.85)... most fascinating

[Beagle]

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/387403

I think its a highly credible result given the extreme length of lockdowns in Australia and N.Z.

FY22 was always going to be challenging and sales down only 6% given the length of lockdowns provides strong encouragement for the future.

At the mid point of the forecast $11.6m net profit this half is forecast to be down 41% on 1H FY21. This compares to WHS where their profit is forecast to be down 64%. eps at 11.6 cps is still 19.45 cps for the half year.

I think HLG will demonstrate the confidence it has in its strong balance sheet position, liquidity and its future outlook by declaring a dividend of 20 cps for the half year.

Looking through the current Covid challenges I am comfortable that HLG are in a great position to thrive when this storm passes.

Others may see it differently and that's their prerogative but I am happy to hold and enjoy the high dividends and strong growth to come in due course.

[Rawz]

When i read market announcements I take a lot out of the 'sentiment' conveyed by the writer.

This announcement... I don't get the sense that the writer is joyous or confident in the future. I.e. very grey and downbeat. Glad I sold out sometime ago because this bad boy is stuck in the mud

[LaserEyeKiwi]

Still forecasting a profit while most of your stores were closed for a significant amount of the period is rather impressive.

[winner69]

Wow - 5,432 lost trading days they said

Should have done the Michael Hill and Kathmandu trick and report comparable says

I reckon they would have said ..... COMPARABLE SAME STORE SALES UP 21%

That's pretty impressive

[sb9]

Oh dear, pretty sad looking numbers there. Might see 5 handle to sp in the near term, with lower NZD and inflationary pressures (wages and costs) mounting.

[Muse]

Wonder where the 2H will end up, although 1H is the traditionally heavier trading period.

No idea but here are some interesting full year outcomes based on 2HFY22 year on year % change on the pcp. looking a bit expensive.



2HFY22
FY22 NPAT
EPS
PE @ 6.69


0%
25.12
0.42
15.9


-20%
22.416
0.38
17.8


-40%
19.712
0.33
20.2


-50%
18.36
0.31
21.7

[Waltzing]

"sales down only 6%"

fantastic result...

if its a 5 HANDLE BUY BIG...

As MR B has said even in the GFC they paid out...and thats what matters most.

Though the DIV might be cut a bit..

[dreamcatcher]

Both Australia & NZ relaxing travel restrictions next two weeks what do people do ..........new clothes for the PARTIES

Disc:hold

[Rawz]

Wonder where the 2H will end up, although 1H is the traditionally heavier trading period.

No idea but here are some interesting full year outcomes based on 2HFY22 year on year % change on the pcp. looking a bit expensive.



2HFY22
FY22 NPAT
EPS
PE @ 6.69


0%
25.12
0.42
15.9


-20%
22.416
0.38
17.8


-40%
19.712
0.33
20.2


-50%
18.36
0.31
21.7




Wow say 2H is 40% down as well. Cant trade on a 20 p/e!! Might hit 4 bucks as some predicted not so long ago

[Waltzing]

4 dollars? oh yes please...back up the trackers...

[Rawz]

4 dollars? oh yes please...back up the trackers...

Only down 14 cents. Market okay with the update. No backing up the truck anytime soon. Unless this downtrend from $7.75 continues? It looks pretty solid but i am no TA guy

[Beagle]

Steady on. First half net profit at mid point is $11.6m with mega shutdowns. Second half without shutdowns should be higher.
Might do $13-14m = ~ $25m for the year in what is the toughest trading conditions since the GFC = 42 cps = PE of 15.7

On a DCF basis I am on record as saying that this knocks the valuation by about 30 cps, maybe a little more depending upon how Covid impacts FY23.

Sales only down 6% YTD considering all the lockdowns gives a big clue that they can springboard back very strongly after Covid.

Online sales are now a remarkable 33% of total sales.

Calls for $4 are absolutely ridiculous in my opinion and completely ignores their excellent track record of years of strong growth before Covid headwinds.

[Muse]

Wow say 2H is 40% down as well. Cant trade on a 20 p/e!! Might hit 4 bucks as some predicted not so long ago

I'm sure there would be a lot of delighted buyers at $4 bucks rawz, including me!
Who knows but hard to see the down 40% occurring. Rather tough to forecast 2h with scant information available. Impact of operational leverage, GP margins (would be good to see if they have arrested the slide), reopening trade, sales by location, etc
Down 20% seems to have a nice ring to it but I don't have a clue

[Muse]

Steady on. First half net profit at mid point is $11.6m with mega shutdowns. Second half without shutdowns should be higher.
Might do $13-14m = ~ $25m for the year in what is the toughest trading conditions since the GFC = 42 cps = PE of 15.7

On a DCF basis I am on record as saying that this knocks the valuation by about 30 cps, maybe a little more depending upon how Covid impacts FY23.

Sales only down 6% YTD considering all the lockdowns gives a big clue that they can springboard back very strongly after Covid.

Online sales are now a remarkable 33% of total sales.

Calls for $4 are absolutely ridiculous in my opinion.

i think he was just trying to wind you up beagle :)

[Waltzing]

"Calls for $4 are absolutely ridiculous in my opinion."

Damn....

well a small pull back in price then?

FBU a buy instead? 7 dollars by day end or more?

The retail stuff report today saying smaller RET and HOS (R&H) is taking a pounding and the sniffy thing isnt even spread far and wide yet.

id say the next report could be a also down on last year..

[LaserEyeKiwi]

Wow say 2H is 40% down as well. Cant trade on a 20 p/e!! Might hit 4 bucks as some predicted not so long ago

Only way that would happen is if a new variant popped up and led to lockdowns again. As stated in update, all stores are now open with current government covid restrictions in place in both countries. I also think Fiordland Moose should have included +10% & +20% 2HFY22 lines in his table.

Regardless of how H1 shapes up - market is forward looking for the most part and all eyes will be on a forward twelve months earnings result, which post the H1 period will mean 12 months of full store opening (including the new Australian store additions), and although wage inflation is currently a thing, international shipping costs will decrease (they are already off their highs) and store rental/lease costs haven’t shown the same large increases yet. Also countering wage inflation is the fact that HLG itself passes on most, if not all, of the inflation cost to consumers via higher product pricing.

IIRC history has shown that value stocks trading at relatively low multiples are the best inflation protection, as companies pass on everything to their customers, and inflation generally raises share prices along with a company’s revenue/profits as the pricing of everything increases. Eg hypothetical Period where inflation increased 10%, then all else being equal a business that increased its revenue & Net Profit by 10% will also see its share price rise by 10%.

I think HLG will remain above $6 for good reason: 2022 onwards is looking very good, and assuming the highest risk event does not happen (a new highly deadly variant resistant to current vaccines forces countries back into lockdown) then forward earnings multiple will quickly be back close to 10x current price.

(disclosure: currently no position held)

[Waltzing]

Well then your no hold position should change at 6.01...:t_up:

can see good chance of 6 handle here.

The market always undervalues this Ticker ID.

NZX->Portfolios->StockPlatform->StockTickerId = HLG

[Rawz]

All retail stocks reverting to the mean (aside from standout MHJ).

Holding retail was a 2021 thing. The majority of my portfolio was retail all year last year. Now I only hold a sliver of MHJ.

I personally cant see retail going well for the next couple of years with inflation and raising rates. HLG and WHS most affected imo.

[winner69]

H2 will see a million or so extra come through from screwing the landlords for every buck they can..... go that screwing team .... Warren was most impressed with your efforts at the ASM ....raved about you

[LaserEyeKiwi]

All retail stocks reverting to the mean (aside from standout MHJ).

Holding retail was a 2021 thing. The majority of my portfolio was retail all year last year. Now I only hold a sliver of MHJ.

I personally cant see retail going well for the next couple of years with inflation and raising rates. HLG and WHS most affected imo.

Curious why you think inflation and raising rates would impact HLG & HLG the most? Why will BRG, KMD, MHJ etc fare better on those particular? I would of thought the companies with no debt would in fact do better in a rising interest rate environment vs the companies holding debt.

[percy]

H2 will see a million or so extra come through from screwing the landlords for every buck they can..... go that screwing team .... Warren was most impressed with your efforts at the ASM ....raved about you

Have you considered that the screwers may become the screwed, should they try to screw their central ChCh landlord.?...lol.

[Rawz]

Curious why you think inflation and raising rates would impact HLG & HLG the most? Why will BRG, KMD, MHJ etc fare better on those particular? I would of thought the companies with no debt would in fact do better in a rising interest rate environment vs the companies holding debt.

I am looking at it from the consumer viewpoint. Not the company position. Discretionary spending is coming in for a wake up call as the 2.19% mortgage rates come off for FHBs and those that upgraded their house from 3 bedroom to 4 and thus maxed out debt again. Rents will go up as well. Initial indication is that these two (HLG and WHS) are hurting the most, maybe its a fmcg thing. But like I say, all of retail done its dash for a couple of years in my mind and there is other sectors to be in that will fare better in this environment, my picks being financials and construction.

[Beagle]

Lease adjustments when stores cannot open is fair and reasonable. Landlords cannot expect to be immune from Covid.
FY22 was always going to be a challenge, as I have predicted many times already. People will be desperate to go out peacocking again when Omricon is over and all those young handsome and pretty young things will want lots of new clothes to go and strut their stuff. Most of these young things don't have a mortgage so have immunity to higher mortgage rates.

[winner69]

I 'calculate' that sales for the last six weeks of the half were up 2% on pcp

Based on a sales seasonality model I have for HLG (a few years history) ,,,, a few assumptions ....and what they say sales have been tracking at full year announcement and at the ASM

Any growth is better than going backwards .... and gives an idea how H2 might have started

[Beagle]

I 'calculate' that sales for the last six weeks of the half were up 2% on pcp

Based on a sales seasonality model I have for HLG (a few years history) ,,,, a few assumptions ....and what they say sales have been tracking at full year announcement and at the ASM

Any growth is better than going backwards .... and gives an idea how H2 might have started

2% up on last years record sales (which were up 22% on the year before) shows very credible current trading performance now that all stores are open and trading and gives a good clue to how sales might track in the second half.

There's always sunshine after rain and once the Covid storm has passed I am very confident the years of strong growth Glassons enjoyed before Covid will continue after it has passed. I am forecasting 2 x 20 cent dividends this year which is far from shabby considering its such an incredibly challenging year. Like I said yesterday, HLG is a classic dividend hounds stock and I am a dividend hound so this is tailor made for me.

[Rawz]

Lease adjustments when stores cannot open is fair and reasonable. Landlords cannot expect to be immune from Covid.
FY22 was always going to be a challenge, as I have predicted many times already. People will be desperate to go out peacocking again when Omricon is over and all those young handsome and pretty young things will want lots of new clothes to go and strut their stuff. Most of these young things don't have a mortgage so have immunity to higher mortgage rates.

Do you still actually believe that mate? It was a good theory before but now seems like a throw away line.

I was expecting the peacocking theory to play out over Q2, over summer..
Lockdowns Q1, therefore pent up demand + summer peacocking = outstanding Q2. Doesnt seem like it happened. Otherwise surely the update would have touched on how great Q2 was and miles ahead of PCP, all the other retailers do that.. Q2 summer/ xmas trading possibly was very average which is a worry

EDIT. I see master winner has calc 2% Q2 pcp growth. Definitely no peacocking there. And no real catch up from Q1 lockdowns.
(BTW- Maybe im being too hard on HLG)

[Beagle]

Do you still actually believe that mate? It was a good theory before but now seems like a throw away line.

I was expecting the peacocking theory to play out over Q2, over summer..
Lockdowns Q1, therefore pent up demand + summer peacocking = outstanding Q2. Doesnt seem like it happened. Otherwise surely the update would have touched on how great Q2 was and miles ahead of PCP, all the other retailers do that.. Q2 summer/ xmas trading possibly was very average which is a worry

They've been doing it really tough in Australia this summer with heaps of Omricon cases. People have been too scared to go out peacocking.
Sales since all stores reopened look very satisfactory to me.

[LaserEyeKiwi]

Do you still actually believe that mate? It was a good theory before but now seems like a throw away line.

I was expecting the peacocking theory to play out over Q2, over summer..
Lockdowns Q1, therefore pent up demand + summer peacocking = outstanding Q2. Doesnt seem like it happened. Otherwise surely the update would have touched on how great Q2 was and miles ahead of PCP, all the other retailers do that.. Q2 summer/ xmas trading possibly was very average which is a worry

Don’t see how Omicron couldn’t be temporally impacting discretionary retail in the short term. Just an anecdote, but my better half hasn’t had one of her traditional weekend retail therapy sessions for several weeks now that Omicron is in the wild. At least the credit card is getting a rest.

[Rawz]

Don’t see how Omicron couldn’t be temporally impacting discretionary retail in the short term. Just an anecdote, but my better half hasn’t had one of her traditional weekend retail therapy sessions for several weeks now that Omicron is in the wild. At least the credit card is getting a rest.

Probably because she is like my better half and bought everything she needed for the house during the great retail boom of 2020/2021. I dont want to sound like a broken record but cant see retail going well for a few years. Maybe just 'satisfactory' like Beagle says. 2% growth is below inflation thou..... thinking about it i would down grade it to 'disappointing'. needs to be a 10 p/e max. Maybe 8?

[winner69]

I see Glassons has 700,000 Instagram followers ….13,000 more than just before Christmas

This could be a good metric to sssess how peacocking is going

[Old mate]

That's the future. Instagram and online shopping.
Hlg got that sorted.

[LaserEyeKiwi]

Probably because she is like my better half and bought everything she needed for the house during the great retail boom of 2020/2021. I dont want to sound like a broken record but cant see retail going well for a few years. Maybe just 'satisfactory' like Beagle says. 2% growth is below inflation thou..... thinking about it i would down grade it to 'disappointing'. needs to be a 10 p/e max. Maybe 8?

Oh woe is the husband who assumes retail shopping will end when “everything needed for the house” has already been obtained.

[Muse]

Lease adjustments when stores cannot open is fair and reasonable. Landlords cannot expect to be immune from Covid.
FY22 was always going to be a challenge, as I have predicted many times already. People will be desperate to go out peacocking again when Omricon is over and all those young handsome and pretty young things will want lots of new clothes to go and strut their stuff. Most of these young things don't have a mortgage so have immunity to higher mortgage rates.

Relatively more resistant to rising mortgages, but not immune (a minority may own homes but ultimately more discretionary income sucked up by rising interest rates will eventually have a knock on effect on overall retail spending). But HLG's customers are highly impacted by rents, which are rising quickly. They are likewise susceptible to negative real wage growth which isn't good for discretionary spending. Particularly with input costs going ballistic and pushing up HLG's retail prices.

Cotton prices by way of example are going through the roof - check this out:

13520

I don't see HLG having any particular pricing power. Sure they will raise prices some but will most likely have to absorb heaps. Lower dollar, higher input prices, high freight cost makes for a more expensive product. I hope they aren't still airlifting product that was a rare mistep they got into that position - entirely forgivable given global supply chain issues - but other retails like Briscoes were able to front foot their inventory positions. There are a lot of costs going into HLG and other retailers business and a few headwinds on the demand side too

[winner69]

Bit of a worry that NPAT/Sales going to be less than 7% (last year H1 was 11% and H2 8%)

Seems to suggest that a expense b relativity high expense base is hurting ..... unless gross margin % is gone to hell

[winner69]

Steady on. First half net profit at mid point is $11.6m with mega shutdowns. Second half without shutdowns should be higher.
Might do $13-14m = ~ $25m for the year in what is the toughest trading conditions since the GFC = 42 cps = PE of 15.7

.

Maybe a little higher $25m

[Beagle]

Maybe a little higher $25m

Need to get Tina from Turners modelling some of their new Autumn wear. She's s rock star !
https://www.glassons.com/

[Cyclical]

Need to get Tina from Turners modelling some of their new Autumn wear. She's s rock star !
https://www.glassons.com/

That really isn't helping me focus on the bottom line...

[nztx]

That really isn't helping me focus on the bottom line...



Hahaha - Very Good :)

[Beagle]

5432 trading days in the six months lost is an unusual way to describe things.
Doesn't mean much until you start to break it down. 5432 / 365 = 14.88.
Same impact as one store being closed for nearly 15 years and all the effects concentrated into one six month period...or
10 stores being closed for 18 months...or
30 stores being closed for the full six month trading period and yet sales were only down 6% on last years record (which itself was up 22% on the year before).
Headwinds with freight and a lower currency also a material factor, quite obviously.
I think in the context of that the result is pretty good.

[Rawz]

Sales down 6% but profit down 41%
What does that mean?

[nztx]

Sales down 6% but profit down 41%
What does that mean?



Increased expenses around Govt mandates, Covid, etc etc ?

Higher costs of getting product from NZ Warehouse to shops ?

More Lower profit lines selling ?

Higher COGS and shipping costs from offshore ?

Longer lead times for imports to landed here ?


They still haven't done too badly - if KMD's recent results are any indication :)

[winner69]

Beagle - its 5432 trading days lost out of 20,700 days (26 weeks and 115 stores) they could have been open

That's 26% of the days they could have been trading lost / closed

Quite a few eh