HLG - Hallenstein Glasson

[nztx]

Hey FM - NZ industry sales charts

My calc shows that current volumes in NZ are 23% above the trend line

If things revert to that trend line that's a lot sales that won't be had .... over much time period will be interesting

What you say about OZ


What does the dwindling money pile on the loose out there say, as Robbo and Orrless start yanking the rope back in harder chasing the invisible shadows they created in the first place ? ;)

On the other side HLG's traditional patterns and mode of operation have made them a consistent
retail performer near the top of the retail pile :)

[see weed]

Thank you Beagle for the Harbour cruise on your speed boat last Wednesday. It was a great day and also looking forward to HLG results next month.

[winner69]

Thank you Beagle for the Harbour cruise on your speed boat last Wednesday. It was a great day and also looking forward to HLG results next month.

Glad you had a good time

I think you and Beagle will be pleasantly surprised with the HLG result

[percy]

Glad you had a good time

I think you and Beagle will be pleasantly surprised with the HLG result

Going to have to be a cracker as their chart shows a lot of weakness.Share price below 90 and 180 day moving averages, and relative strength is very weak at 33.

[see weed]

Going to have to be a cracker as their chart shows a lot of weakness.Share price below 90 and 180 day moving averages, and relative strength is very weak at 33.
Charts don't mean much with this company it is too illiquid. a couple of days ago I think about 800 shares changed hands and it pushed sp down 8c. I need to buy another 60,000 before next report day to catch up to Beagle;). The trouble is I can't without pushing sp up 20 to 50c.

[percy]

Charts don't mean much with this company it is too illiquid. a couple of days ago I think about 800 shares changed hands and it pushed sp down 8c. I need to buy another 60,000 before next report day to catch up to Beagle;). The trouble is I can't without pushing sp up 20 to 50c.

Yes very tightly held.
Well if you do push the price up it is a win win situation for you both.
Why don't you buy 70,000 and tell him you have more than him...lol.

[nztx]

Charts don't mean much with this company it is too illiquid. a couple of days ago I think about 800 shares changed hands and it pushed sp down 8c. I need to buy another 60,000 before next report day to catch up to Beagle;). The trouble is I can't without pushing sp up 20 to 50c.


Hey .. you better make that a buck, if I make it in first :)

[pierre]

Hey .. you better make that a buck, if I make it in first :)

The SP is up 24 cents today - 540 atm.

[winner69]

Jeez, HLG near top of leaderboard today

And OCA going pretty good as well

[winner69]

The SP is up 24 cents today - 540 atm.

Go seeweed

[winner69]

Media -

There is speculation that Hallenstein Glasson, and even Briscoe, may enter the NZX top 50 following the latest review over the next 15 trading days and index rebalancing.

[nztx]

Up the rest of the buck in a few sessions time ? ;)

Might be $20 in time .. who knows, when scrip is ia rare as hens teeth at times :)

[JSwan]

Media -

There is speculation that Hallenstein Glasson, and even Briscoe, may enter the NZX top 50 following the latest review over the next 15 trading days and index rebalancing.



Can you post a link to this please?

[nztx]

Can you post a link to this please?


Refer the article under:

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/market-close-nz-stocks-rise-on-improved-business-confidence/3NXQ5T7PQBH4PNI66AFCV2Q5LU/

(Premium)

[bull....]

australian retail sales not good december esp clothing :scared:

https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/jan/31/cost-of-living-pressure-causes-dip-in-december-retail-sales

clothing, footwear and personal accessories, down 13.1%.

[Rawz]

It doesnt matter when Glassons is winning market share and HLG is about to enter the NZX50 :eek2:

[DonkeyKong]

It doesnt matter when Glassons is winning market share and HLG is about to enter the NZX50 :eek2:

Do you think it is liquid enough to be in the nzx50?

[FTG]

Under the NZX's standard Free Float requirements would have thought this presents a bit of a challenge for HLG to enter into the 50?

[BlackPeter]

Under the NZX's standard Free Float requirements would have thought this presents a bit of a challenge for HLG to enter into the 50?

Why?

From memory - HLG used to be in the NZX50 years ago. Have the free float requirements
changed?

[FTG]

From memory Free Float requirements were included many, many Blue Moons ago? The days of index participants being based purely on market Cap have long gone.

[Ferg]

The days of index participants being based purely on market Cap have long gone.

For sure. Source: https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/documents/methodologies/methodology-sp-nzx-index.pdf

In addition to passing an investable weighting factor test, there are 2 liquidity tests. Plus to get into the NZX50 you need to get to the 44th position or higher in rankings to dislodge an existing member (unless the incumbent falls to 56th position or lower on their own, or is automatically removed). HLG has struggled with the liquidity requirement. The IWF value is close but it is measured over a time frame, not a point in time. LAst time I checked there is one other candidates in the same boat who is also knocking on the door.

[FTG]

For sure. Source: https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/documents/methodologies/methodology-sp-nzx-index.pdf

In addition to passing an investable weighting factor test, there are 2 liquidity tests. Plus to get into the NZX50 you need to get to the 44th position or higher in rankings to dislodge an existing member (unless the incumbent falls to 56th position or lower on their own, or is automatically removed). HLG has struggled with the liquidity requirement. The IWF value is close but it is measured over a time frame, not a point in time. LAst time I checked there is one other candidates in the same boat who is also knocking on the door.

Thanks Ferg.

Who knows, if the NZX keeps experiencing the level of attrition from the Board that it has over the last 5 years, then perhaps HLG will join the club anyway? Regardless of having rather low liquidity.

[Rawz]

Charts don't mean much with this company it is too illiquid. a couple of days ago I think about 800 shares changed hands and it pushed sp down 8c. I need to buy another 60,000 before next report day to catch up to Beagle;). The trouble is I can't without pushing sp up 20 to 50c.

See weed, whats going on? SP down to $5.30. Should be closer to $6?? :confused:

[see weed]

See weed, whats going on? SP down to $5.30. Should be closer to $6?? :confused:
Yeah I'm still buying in. Bought 3000 this morning for 5.32 and bought 4000 on 2/2/23 for 5.52 and 3000 for 5.46 on31/1/23 and 3 more lots of 3000 to 5000 at 5.16, 5.33 and 5.49. I buy more on the dips. Not to worry just buy more on the dips. Go over and read Beagle/Basil on the Stock Talk forum he explains HLG better than I can. It is paying me 7.9%+ Yld in dividends which is still lot better than bank.

[clearasmud]

Yeah I'm still buying in. Bought 3000 this morning for 5.32 and bought 4000 on 2/2/23 for 5.52 and 3000 for 5.46 on31/1/23 and 3 more lots of 3000 to 5000 at 5.16, 5.33 and 5.49. I buy more on the dips. Not to worry just buy more on the dips. Go over and read Beagle/Basil on the Stock Talk forum he explains HLG better than I can. It is paying me 7.9%+ Yld in dividends which is still lot better than bank.
Stu and Hlg and Mhj are my biggest Holdings.
Do you want 100k of HLG too?

[Muse]

based on a back of the envelope calc. it seems plausible HLG may achieve a 1H FY23 NPAT in the 30-35m range, driven overwhelmingly by lockdown revenge spending in australia. regardless of how well or how challenging conditions are in the second half of FY23 it seems likely to me the full year result will be a record for the business. that should provide for a chunky dividend come april even if not particularly well imputed.

I've already concluded my one big retail punt (IE tax paid 'trade') and not allowing myself any other ones this year. In my humble opinion I'd expect quite a positive market reaction to a 1H result showing a +150% increase in NPAT year on year, so I understand why all the day traders and momentum traders will be eagerly awaiting the result. I'm confident there will be voracious ramping when it occurs followed by quite a bit of profit taking over subsequent periods and conditions particularly in australia continue to deteriorate.

I try my best to look at things from a long term investor perspective. Indeed if I were already a holder I'd probably equally be eagerly awaiting my new dividend and would be a delighted long term holder given the capital gains enjoyed by the majority of holders over the medium and long term.

However I'm not a shareholder nor a trader, so I try my best to look at the companies prospects as an investor and the medium and long term prospects relative to the current spot price. I'm content to sit it out and watch for the sidelines even if the SP rises from here over the short term.

I see too many similarities to the trading pattern the WHS experienced, with its huge ramp up in FY21, falling meaningfully in FY22, and looking quite likely to experience another fall in FY23. NZ and AU have experienced divergent lockdown patterns with AU cycling over peak lockdown periods in the 6 month period just been, and NZ started its interest rate hiking programme well before Australia. So I can't help but wonder if FY23 for HLG is more or less the same as FY21 was for the warehouse.

I'm most influenced by the work I outlined in HLG post #8493, which I just updated for yesterday's release from the Australian Bureau of Statistics, which highlights that australian fashion retailers over the last 6 months have experienced retail volumes (ie stripping away the impact of inflation) of 25% more than they would have if the long term pre covid trendline in retail volumes continued. The opening up trade and revenge trading is very real and we know by way of experience so is the hangover. It takes time for the air to release and is not instantaneous but when it happens the cumulative impact can be massive over an 18-24 month period.

Obviously lots of good things occurring with Glassons AU leading the way within the group but at a net ~3 new stores pa I personally don't see that offsetting the normalisation in underlying volumes within the industry. I'm also mindful that Glassons NZ and Hallensteins have been experiencing marked declines over the last 5 years.

I'm not interested in the later two companies - only Glassons AU, which I hold in very high regard. Content to sit on the sidelines and experience fomo if/when the SP rises on the back of FY23's result, and patiently wait for normalised conditions, and won't sweat it if what I reckon willy happen in 12-24 months doesn't eventuate.

HLG an interesting one to watch despite the au market being in my view at the very precipice of the cycle as glassons AU has real momentum, and as a business without any research coverage, you have to do more of your own research which which everyone should absolutely be doing particularly given the cylical nature of the business and the position in the business cycle we now find ourselves in.

disclosure: no position held (long or short), no shareholdings in competing businesses, etc.

[Baa_Baa]

[...] It takes time for the air to release and is not instantaneous but when it happens the cumulative impact can be massive over an 18-24 month period.

[...] and won't sweat it if what I reckon will happen in 12-24 months doesn't eventuate.

[...] particularly given the cylical nature of the business and the position in the business cycle we now find ourselves in.

Excuse me for summarising your post FM, which I definitely agree with. If one is in, already enjoying the dividends and capital growth, that's good.

But be aware this is cyclical and will destroy your capital in due course, its history shows that - ergo, can you stand that, and will your dividends compensate enough for it?

If you're out, there's no point in chasing the FOMO, unless you're a savvy trader, even for the dividends, as the ramp will evaporate as it always has and capital sensitive and dividend investors will be trapped.

Beware the ramping of this, that happens every few years .. the high dividend payouts are there for a reason, they try to balance the equity price risks, that history has proven to be real.

Imo only very patient, long term non-capital sensitive investors should ever go near this, aside from nimble and momentum traders who know how to move when they need to move.

For everyone else, this is a dividend trap and a pathway to massive capital value fluctuations that will test even the most hardened investors resolve.

Your favourite rampers will be gone, long before you even get a sniff of SP trouble, then they'll slag the company mercilessly until it bottoms and rinse and repeat.

If this is in doubt, look at the SP chart going back a decade or so. Do you know how to trade a chart like that, or are you a victim of paralysis when the SP goes against you?

Worse still, do you know yet how to spot the rampers, traders, momentum traders, pumping their stocks? This one is a text book lesson. Refer above.

[850man]

Much pumping of HLG on the Stocktalk forum by one individual. Reminds me of the same pumping of WHS before announcing "I've sold out, it's a bad investment"

[BlackPeter]

Much pumping of HLG on the Stocktalk forum by one individual. Reminds me of the same pumping of WHS before announcing "I've sold out, it's a bad investment"

Good point.

I understand as well that one of his guiding principles is "the recent past is the best guide to the future". Maybe something to learn from?

[Rawz]

Some good posts with valid points. Beagle actually sold too early on the WHS trade. Missed the dividend which a few people discussed at the time on the thread. Lots collected it and then sold after for a better return overall. When Beagle and Bull said they sold to the ceo blah blah there was plenty of opportunity to follow at the same or similar price and exit with them- assuming you entered with them and the hype. So if you got caught out holding on waiting for $8 sp its kinda your own fault.

Anyways HLG is totally different because its actually a well run company compared to the whs who is getting savaged by Kmart. Nobody can deny Glassons Australia is a real gem which was noted above. Additionally you just never know with HLG nz operations, its due a turnaround and management have proven over many decades to turn around slack sales.

I hold HLG and happy with the dividend and expect/hope for some quality capital gains and yes will be watching everything closely. Good thing for me is i can sell my holding in a day where as others cannot lol

[850man]

HLG VERY lightly traded most days.

[clearasmud]

Some good posts with valid points. Beagle actually sold too early on the WHS trade. Missed the dividend which a few people discussed at the time on the thread. Lots collected it and then sold after for a better return overall. When Beagle and Bull said they sold to the ceo blah blah there was plenty of opportunity to follow at the same or similar price and exit with them- assuming you entered with them and the hype. So if you got caught out holding on waiting for $8 sp its kinda your own fault.

Anyways HLG is totally different because its actually a well run company compared to the whs who is getting savaged by Kmart. Nobody can deny Glassons Australia is a real gem which was noted above. Additionally you just never know with HLG nz operations, its due a turnaround and management have proven over many decades to turn around slack sales.

I hold HLG and happy with the dividend and expect/hope for some quality capital gains and yes will be watching everything closely. Good thing for me is i can sell my holding in a day where as others cannot lol

Beagle sold Whs around $3.30
He shouldn't have pumped it.
I agree with what you said about Hlg.

[Rawz]

Beagle sold Whs around $3.30
He shouldn't have pumped it.
I agree with what you said about Hlg.

By memory its was $4 something late 2021.

Just looking at the chart it stayed above $4 for 3 months.. so like i say no excuses not to exit if you followed the hype machine. everyone has to take a bit of responsibility for their own investments. like these articles lately of people blaming the bank for high mortgage rates or retirees not happy they bought a $2m RV apartment in Tauranga even when the whole family says dont buy it. Its on you.

[Balance]

By memory its was $4 something late 2021.

Just looking at the chart it stayed above $4 for 3 months.. so like i say no excuses not to exit if you followed the hype machine. everyone has to take a bit of responsibility for their own investments. like these articles lately of people blaming the bank for high mortgage rates or retirees not happy they bought a $2m RV apartment in Tauranga even when the whole family says dont buy it. Its on you.

Yup - need to know who are the traders, rampers and investors on all sites, but especially on ST!

[winner69]

Hey FiordlandMoose when you say ' it seems plausible HLG may achieve a 1H FY23 NPAT in the 30-35m' you could be right on the mar

Amazing performance - that would mean that HLG made as much NPAT in six months than they made in a record full year

Why shouldn't some be excited about the prospects - doing more in six months than in a record full year is some effort

Pity some other companies that punters have huge faith in don't perform like this .... or in some cases even turn in a profit

[Muse]

Hey FiordlandMoose when you say ' it seems plausible HLG may achieve a 1H FY23 NPAT in the 30-35m' you could be right on the mar


Why shouldn't some be excited about the prospects - doing more in six months than in a record full year is some effort



Could be close or could be miles off it was a back of the fag packet calc. Regardless, reckon it’ll be up.

Plenty for various investor and trader types to cheer about, as alluded to in my post.

[winner69]

Could be close or could be miles off it was a back of the fag packet calc. Regardless, reckon it’ll be up.

Plenty for various investor and trader types to cheer about, as alluded to in my post.

FM - it'll be in that range ... maybe even the $35m

Just imagine what full year might be ...no wonder investors are excited

[FTG]

Excuse me for summarising your post FM, which I definitely agree with. If one is in, already enjoying the dividends and capital growth, that's good.

But be aware this is cyclical and will destroy your capital in due course, its history shows that - ergo, can you stand that, and will your dividends compensate enough for it?

If you're out, there's no point in chasing the FOMO, unless you're a savvy trader, even for the dividends, as the ramp will evaporate as it always has and capital sensitive and dividend investors will be trapped.

Beware the ramping of this, that happens every few years .. the high dividend payouts are there for a reason, they try to balance the equity price risks, that history has proven to be real.

Imo only very patient, long term non-capital sensitive investors should ever go near this, aside from nimble and momentum traders who know how to move when they need to move.

For everyone else, this is a dividend trap and a pathway to massive capital value fluctuations that will test even the most hardened investors resolve.

Your favourite rampers will be gone, long before you even get a sniff of SP trouble, then they'll slag the company mercilessly until it bottoms and rinse and repeat.

If this is in doubt, look at the SP chart going back a decade or so. Do you know how to trade a chart like that, or are you a victim of paralysis when the SP goes against you?

Worse still, do you know yet how to spot the rampers, traders, momentum traders, pumping their stocks? This one is a text book lesson. Refer above.

Very salient points Baa Baa. Casual & smaller investors, especially, would be wise to take heed of your cautionary notes.

Despite HLG in the whole operating in a very disciplined manner, it is a classic example of a company's share price being much more directly tied to market 'sentiment', rather than the actual operational & financial performance of the company.

I also note that with HLG the key cyclical pivot points on the chart tend NOT to be rounded, but more dramatic (sharp) when reversing. Therefore those that aren't aware can find their position (long or short) under water quite quickly when the tide changes. Not surprising though, as this tends to occur with more thinly traded stocks generally speaking.

Cycles are a part of life (and the markets), so it's handy to be aware of any cycles that are in play. For me one cycle that seems to be in play with HLG is that significant peaks have shown a tendency to form around the end of the 4th quarter to the beginning of the 1st quarter (Calendar year).

Does late 2022/early 2023 mark another pivot point? Only time will tell...

[nztx]

Much pumping of HLG on the Stocktalk forum by one individual. Reminds me of the same pumping of WHS before announcing "I've sold out, it's a bad investment"

https://hotcopper.com.au/nzsx/hlg/discussion/

most recent sign of anything in way of few comment postings was 28 March 2019

that's almost 4 years ago

Are we missing something ? ;)

[winner69]

https://hotcopper.com.au/nzsx/hlg/discussion/

most recent sign of anything in way of few comment postings was 28 March 2019

that's almost 4 years ago

Are we missing something ? ;)

Seems a non event eh

[Balance]

Seems a non event eh

The rampers and rumour mongers at hotcopper know better than to try & manipulate a non tradeable stock like HLG - lack of liquidity and solid balance sheet with its legions of loyal long term
Shareholders.

[Rawz]

Trading Update and Profit Forecast

The Company advises that total Group sales for the six‐month period ended 1 February 2023 were $223.3 million, an increase of 30.9% over the prior corresponding period ($170.6 million).
Group profit after tax is projected to be in the range of $20.5 million to $21.0 million, an increase of approximately 74.3% over the prior year ($11.9 million).

The above results are not directly comparable to the prior corresponding period as the Group faced multiple store closures across Australia and New Zealand due to lockdowns for much of the first three months of the prior year.
The balance sheet for the Group remains strong and stock levels continue to be well controlled.
A full announcement with six months financial statements including dividend declaration will be released to the market on 31 March 2023.

================================================== ===

here it is. probably go to the other place for more talk on this but already been called a shocker :scared:

[winner69]

Rawz, somebody said 'as expected' on other channel

[alokdhir]

Let's see how many are actually LT holders now ...how can any consumer discretionary do well in such rates environment ...eventually all need suffer ...just the difference in OZ rate hikes helped prolong the hope ....GLH ...its still one of the best of the lot ...even our BGP got rerated downwards eventually !!!

[Rawz]

Let's see how many are actually LT holders now ...how can any consumer discretionary do well in such rates environment ...eventually all need suffer ...just the difference in OZ rate hikes helped prolong the hope ....GLH ...its still one of the best of the lot ...even our BGP got rerated downwards eventually !!!

why would LT holders sell? whats wrong with the announcement? lol

[jg8512]

Trading Update and Profit Forecast

The Company advises that total Group sales for the six‐month period ended 1 February 2023 were $223.3 million, an increase of 30.9% over the prior corresponding period ($170.6 million).
Group profit after tax is projected to be in the range of $20.5 million to $21.0 million, an increase of approximately 74.3% over the prior year ($11.9 million).

The above results are not directly comparable to the prior corresponding period as the Group faced multiple store closures across Australia and New Zealand due to lockdowns for much of the first three months of the prior year.
The balance sheet for the Group remains strong and stock levels continue to be well controlled.
A full announcement with six months financial statements including dividend declaration will be released to the market on 31 March 2023.

================================================== ===

here it is. probably go to the other place for more talk on this but already been called a shocker :scared:

it was up on the interim result 2 years ago (and three years ago) - materially ahead in revenue, and a $1m or so at NPAT. that's tidy enough. what more was the market expecting?

PS. scuse my ignorance, what's the other place?

[alokdhir]

why would LT holders sell? whats wrong with the announcement? lol

Nothing wrong at present but can it stand if expected recession eventuates ...or u actually think its more resilient then even BGP ...which sure had a big fall from lofty levels ...

Just opened 3.6% down on reasonable vol for this stock ...at least someone think its a sell on todays " Good news "

[see weed]

it was up on the interim result 2 years ago (and three years ago) - materially ahead in revenue, and a $1m or so at NPAT. that's tidy enough. what more was the market expecting?

PS. scuse my ignorance, what's the other place?
Hi jg8512 Just to let you know the other place is the "Stock Talk" forum, there is more talk over there about HLG and other companies just like sharetrader.

[see weed]

why would LT holders sell? whats wrong with the announcement? lol
I would just like to add HLG sp one year ago. From 17/2/22 to 1/3/22 HLG sp dropped 86c from $6.69 to$5.83 on the bad news. Then everyone forgot about the bad news and could see a nice big div on the horizon, from 2/3/22 to 5/4/22 sp was back up to $6.65. This year i am not expecting such a fall and will hold for div which is still a lot better than money in the bank at 2 or 3%.

[winner69]

AMAZING result really

Sales up 31% and NPAT up 74%

Same period - Briscoes sales up 8% and NPAT up about 5%

and 6 months to December - MHJ sales up 12% and profit up say 3%/4%

In that context HLG AMAZING performance

Didn't mention WHS you notice lol

[Rawz]

AMAZING result really

Sales up 31% and NPAT up 74%

Same period - Briscoes sales up 8% and NPAT up about 5%

and 6 months to December - MHJ sales up 12% and profit up say 3%/4%

In that context HLG AMAZING performance

Didn't mention WHS you notice lol

Exactly.. result is very good. Maybe seems bad because a few gurus said $30m+

SP heading above $6

[winner69]

Exactly.. result is very good. Maybe seems bad because a few gurus said $30m+

SP heading above $6

Yep Rawz me ol' mate, gurus are like broker analysts in that they get over excited at times

[winner69]

I'll get told off for looking at rolling 2 half year numbers ...... but HLG NPAT for last 2 half years total $35m

That's pretty amazing

And it should go up again in the second half

[alokdhir]

Exactly.. result is very good. Maybe seems bad because a few gurus said $30m+

SP heading above $6

I like agreement of holders ...lol

[Rawz]

………………..delete

[Balance]

Back in the green.

Who didnt read the result and panic sold this morning at $5.30??? Was that you alokdhir?!?!?!?

Someone who read on the other site to expect profit of $30m so this result is a shocker?

Sad!

[see weed]

Back in the green.

Who didnt read the result and panic sold this morning at $5.30??? Was that you alokdhir?!?!?!?
I pushed the sp up to 5.50 last night on close but still haven't reached my target of catching up to Beagle where will it go today hay hay hay hurray.

[see weed]

Well Well Well 5.70. Carry on James $6 here we come. Still got a few more to pick up on the dips and peaks.

[Rawz]

Strong finish up 3.6% to $5.70 off the back of today's amazing sales result.

[alokdhir]

Back in the green.

Who didnt read the result and panic sold this morning at $5.30??? Was that you alokdhir?!?!?!?

I dont hold such illiquid and low cap retail oriented stocks ever mate ...U like momentum and dividend ....enjoy the game but dont expect your Gurus to warn u when they will be out of it ...Enjoy your dividends ...I enjoy my growth in FPH / MFT and dividends from KFL .....

Remember Gurus liked and held WHS also !!!

[alokdhir]

Strong finish up 3.6% to $5.70 off the back of today's amazing sales result.

Well done holders.

shame to those that sold this morning at $5.30 based on what others forecasts were :mellow:

Dont get too excited on casting judgement on people who sold for any reason mate ...And dont think others cant understand or read results like maybe u ...didnt expect this kind of posts from u buddy !!!

[Rawz]

Dont get too excited on casting judgement on people who sold for any reason mate ...And dont think others cant understand or read results like maybe u ...didnt expect this kind of posts from u buddy !!!
Fair call, could have worded that post better

[nztx]

Strong finish up 3.6% to $5.70 off the back of today's amazing sales result.


six dollar 50 next week you reckon ? :)

[see weed]

Am still nibbling away at this stock but it keeps pushing the price up 5c or so, sorry about that. Am buying into this company for the Glassons growth in Aussie, I think the young ladies are not too worried about recessions and mortgage rates, they just want to look good when they go out partying and ragging on a Friday, Saturday and sometimes a Sunday night. Am looking forward to the good div in about 5 or 6 weeks time. Also like the good yld much better than bank.:t_up:

[Rawz]

Am still nibbling away at this stock but it keeps pushing the price up 5c or so, sorry about that. Am buying into this company for the Glassons growth in Aussie, I think the young ladies are not too worried about recessions and mortgage rates, they just want to look good when they go out parting and ragging on a Friday, Saturday and sometimes a Sunday night. Am looking forward to the good div in about 5 or 6 weeks time. Also like the good yld much better than bank.:t_up:

don't forget about thirsty Thursday.. better to be hungover at work on a friday than ruin your own time in the weekend :p

[percy]

Am still nibbling away at this stock but it keeps pushing the price up 5c or so, sorry about that. Am buying into this company for the Glassons growth in Aussie, I think the young ladies are not too worried about recessions and mortgage rates, they just want to look good when they go out parting and ragging on a Friday, Saturday and sometimes a Sunday night. Am looking forward to the good div in about 5 or 6 weeks time. Also like the good yld much better than bank.:t_up:

Agree.
James Glasson is doing a great job driving Glassons in Aussie.
Think his dad likes divies as much as you..lol.

[see weed]

Went to Sylvia Park for lunch today and dropped into Hallensteins to see how they holding up. Average during the week which is understandable, but much busier in the weekend. $60,000 one day takings before Christmas. And on boxing day their turnover was $106,000. Then dropped in to say hi to a couple of Glasson girls standing near the entrance. They also pretty busy with a $60,000 turnover in one day leading up to Christmas, compared a previous year of $27,000, but forgot to ask them about boxing day. I get a bit jittery hanging around lady clothes shop.

[Waltzing]

winner says Cyclical ... well ..

This from stats NZ "Current Account Deficit $33.8 billion, or 8.9% of GDP"

well thats the worst since 1988 .....

does this GOVT not understand accounting....

how the country turns that around will be interesting.

Luckly shoppers dont track deficits and the GOVT is going to splash the cash..

as Winner() says all good then...

[see weed]

Is everybody happy with HLG going up 32c in 3 days. Results in 2 days. I am very happy but reckon Beagle will be twice as happy. Am looking forward to results too.

[Waltzing]

Yes in a few year time the Beagle may be having the last laugh...

[nztx]

Yes in a few year time the Beagle may be having the last laugh...


See-weed and a few others might also be having a good laugh too ..

[Waltzing]

Yes they will and well done to them...

There is plenty to go yet and time is on everyone side SP wise. The market still doesnt like retail at the moment and Gundlach and other say the next phase could get a bit ugly...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jeffrey_Gundlach

[Sideshow Bob]

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/409268

UNAUDITED RESULTS FOR 6 MONTHS ENDED 1 FEBRUARY 2023

The Company advises that Group sales for the six months to 1 February 2023 were $223.29 million, an increase of 30.9% over the corresponding period last year ($170.63 million). Net profit after tax was $20.83 million (unaudited), an increase of 74.8% over the corresponding period last year ($11.91 million). The result is in line with the guidance announced to the NZX on 17 February 2023.

Gross margin on sales was 56.5% compared with 57.9% in the prior corresponding period. Margin was pressured during the season by the USD exchange rate and higher than normal freight costs. Freight costs have been coming down in the new season but are still not at pre-covid levels. During the financial period the business continued to focus on cost controls given the rapidly increasing inflation both locally and globally, reducing operating costs where possible. Inventory levels have increased in order to alleviate disruption from freight delays but continued to be well managed to preserve liquidity.

The current financial reporting period has not been materially impacted by COVID-19. Comparatively, trade in the first half of the 2022 financial year was significantly disrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic, with 5,432 lost trading days across the Group.

Segment Results

Glassons

Sales in Australia were $102.89 million for the six-month period, which were up 43.1% against the prior corresponding period. During the season a new store was opened in Macarthur Square, Sydney, while the Pacific Fair store in Queensland has been extended and refurbished. Further refurbishments are underway, and there are currently a number of sites being reviewed for potential openings in Australia to further expand the business. Glassons Australia made a significant contribution to the overall Group profit results.

Sales in New Zealand were $60.62 million, which were up +13.4% against the same period last year. The lockdowns in New Zealand in the prior year significantly impacted the results of the in-store performance. There is continued focus on technology and the effectiveness of being omni channel with an increase in investment to support the digital strategy. During the season the Botany store in Auckland was refurbished, and further refurbishments are planned in the next six months.

Glassons continues to lead the way as a fashion brand and has been able to respond with agility to customer demand while remaining relevant in the markets it trades within. Glassons is looking to continue the expansion of the physical store presence in Australia where reasonable and invest in digital in both markets.
Hallenstein Brothers

Sales were $59.79 million for the six-month period (including Australia), with sales improving +32.0% against the same period last year. As noted above, the New Zealand lockdowns had a significant impact on the store performance for the brand in the prior year. During the season, the Invercargill store was relocated to the new Invercargill Central mall and was fitted with a new concept design.

Hallenstein Brothers has successfully increased the casual product offering which has helped to offset the decline in demand for tailored product. This has included moving to a more smart-casual product range in fitting with current trends. Investment in the website continues to be a focus and we consider there to be future opportunities for growth in Australia.

E-Commerce
Digital sales have decreased to 18.1% of total Group sales for the six-month period, down from 32.8% in the same period last year. There has been a strong drive from customers to get back into the physical stores post Covid, which has seen the demand for online shopping reduce compared to recent comparative periods. There is a continued focus on digital marketing across the Group to drive engagement across all channels and ensure that customers enjoy a true omni channel experience. The Glassons App continues to be very successful with more than 1,000,000 downloads, while significant work has been undertaken on the Hallensteins web shop to improve the look and the customer experience.

Dividend
The Directors have declared an interim dividend of 24 cents per share (partially imputed) (last year 18 cents per share) to be paid on 19 April 2023. The balance sheet continues to be strong and inventories well controlled.

Future Outlook
The trading environment for the first eight weeks of the winter season has been challenging with the cost of living and inflationary pressures impacting on consumers discretionary spend. Group sales for the first eight weeks of the winter season are +13.9% ahead of the same period last year.

Whilst this is a pleasing start, significant challenges are expected to continue for the remainder of the season given the current economic environment in New Zealand, Australia and globally. Given the current circumstances we do expect the Australian trading environment to remain stronger than that of New Zealand. Cost efficiencies are being made where possible. We remain focused on our strategic direction and will continue to deliver great and affordable fashion product to our customers underpinned by our sustainability ethos.

We will maintain our focus of operating excellence while continuing to invest in people, digital and physical stores. This will result in improved customer engagement and a great customer experience.

[see weed]

Good result. Extra 6c in divs per year at about 8.5%+ yld am happy with that, beautiful big div next month of 24c Wow, won't beagle be twice as happy as me. :t_up:. Not just Beagle but all holders.

[Waltzing]

Sir B hasnt made a comment yet as he has just clear the heads on a fine day and is sailing somewhere in the antipodes...

https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC4XH9YgrPjw7cvO_zs91zPg?app=desktop

[Waltzing]

Some good news for HLG in the herald....

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/casual-in-tailored-out-hallenstein-glassons-sales-leap-but-pressures-from-freight-greenback-remain/Q4GV3V4ALZDSDJYDI4M55QH25I/

[Recaster]

Some good news for HGH in the herald....

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/casual-in-tailored-out-hallenstein-glassons-sales-leap-but-pressures-from-freight-greenback-remain/Q4GV3V4ALZDSDJYDI4M55QH25I/

HLG? HGH is Heartland.

[clearasmud]

HLG? HGH is Heartland.
Hallensteins Glassons Holdings or HGH.

[percy]

Good result. Extra 6c in divs per year at about 8.5%+ yld am happy with that, beautiful big div next month of 24c Wow, won't beagle be twice as happy as me. :t_up:. Not just Beagle but all holders.

A stunning result.
James Glasson is driving Aussie really well.

[winner69]

A stunning result.
James Glasson is driving Aussie really well.

Yep, James adding the finishing touches to what Di built. She did an amazing job bringing Glassons back from the brink.

[Balance]

$6.00 should be easy next week with the Dow back on a tear!

Will have a few to supply at that level.

Come and get ‘em!

[Waltzing]

Holding.... Holding....

Sell in may Balance...

But wait...Jeffrey Gundlach say big recession coming as rhe FED is now stuck between a Forest and a printing press.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jeffrey_Gundlach

The ECB pres ...

https://www.ecb.europa.eu/ecb/orga/decisions/html/cvlagarde.en.html

says europe can thread the needle.

Gundlach says rubbish.

[nztx]

A very good result by HLG considering what is happening elsewhere in the Rag Trade:

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/australian-brand-ezibuy-goes-into-administration-as-sales-down-51/GUFK6WK2EJGR5CU6WKCFC63DOM/

EziBuy, a subsidiary of Mosaic Brands, goes into administration as sales down 51 per cent

[850man]

A very good result by HLG considering what is happening elsewhere in the Rag Trade:

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/australian-brand-ezibuy-goes-into-administration-as-sales-down-51/GUFK6WK2EJGR5CU6WKCFC63DOM/

EziBuy, a subsidiary of Mosaic Brands, goes into administration as sales down 51 per cent

Down trend in online sales evident in HLG, impacting Ezibuy to a greater extent as pretty much all their eggs are in the online basket.

[mcdongle]

Thought something was up with Ezibuy Mrs dragged me in there Sunday ... Everything in the shop was $30 no exceptions Even the Next clothes

[see weed]

HLG goes ex div on 11/4/23. Get in now if you want the 24c div.

[BlackPeter]

HLG goes ex div on 11/4/23. Get in now if you want the 24c div.

Hmm - is this a case of pay for the dividend to get it? By how much do you expect the SP to drop Ex dividend?

[see weed]

Hmm - is this a case of pay for the dividend to get it? By how much do you expect the SP to drop Ex dividend?
Good question. All I know is the low for the year was $4.93 ON 30/9/22. The opening price was 4.93 and the closing price was 5.20. Sp went up 21c that day to 5.20. I was lucky to get a bundle at 4.99 on close the day before. Also got some for 5.06, 5.20, 5.16, and another 20 odd bundles up to 5.60. So sp falls and rises at different times of year. Must remember the great yld. The way I see it as eg....$100,000 in bank gets about $3000 interest and $100,000 of HLG gets about $8333 in divs, over 12 months. To get $8333 in divs, you would have to have 17,362 HLG shares. These figures calculated on yesterdays closing price of $5.76

[Onemootpoint]

Not doubting the quality of the company and how it is run atm.

just curious about the potential share price drop ex div. it is a long stretch to the next div and these days a $100 000 in the bank can get close or in some cases beyond $6000 pa.

This sector will likely still have it a bit tough this year and if that dreaded recession kicks in later this year, even if only in the USA it is bound to crap thus sector lower.

if so, will still be a good longer term buy. Well run company.

[Fortunecookie]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/culture-kings-founder-laughs-off-500-million-us-stock-market-loss/VQRC5Z5SANH4TPPKK67HSIVN3Y/

https://www.afr.com/young-rich/why-rich-lister-simon-beard-left-culture-kings-20230320-p5ctjx

Got me interested because of the 95% drop in SP. The financials didn't look that bad once you consider the loss is primarily due to goodwill impairment and you addback the amortisation.

However in short there is no discount to enterprise value. Actually when you compare to Hallensteins and Briscoes, I think they are still trading above intrinsic value (hard to fathom given the 95% drop) and perhaps a riskier proposition and potential headwinds.

It's an interesting dynamic. The PE owns 54%. The founders still own 19% and ceased to oversee the daily operations from Dec. Apparently they lost the autonomy to make (quick) decisions.
The founders are fine, they got $300mill cash out of the original deal. It would be interesting to see how this plays out in the future given it is their baby. I know it is a Hallensteins thread, but I thought it is interesting as they are competing in the same segment. Imo a large drop in SP doesn't always translate to bargains.

[nztx]

Not doubting the quality of the company and how it is run atm.

just curious about the potential share price drop ex div. it is a long stretch to the next div and these days a $100 000 in the bank can get close or in some cases beyond $6000 pa.

This sector will likely still have it a bit tough this year and if that dreaded recession kicks in later this year, even if only in the USA it is bound to crap thus sector lower.

if so, will still be a good longer term buy. Well run company.


Agree

The SP shed roughly 60c in last year, but div adjustment may or may not need to be taken into account.
The year earlier saw roughly $1 retreat.

No question on the quality of the company, but economic factors will come in.

Nearing $5 again may be a short term prospect in the earlier months leading up to Xmas 2023 dividend

[see weed]

Not doubting the quality of the company and how it is run atm.

just curious about the potential share price drop ex div. it is a long stretch to the next div and these days a $100 000 in the bank can get close or in some cases beyond $6000 pa.

This sector will likely still have it a bit tough this year and if that dreaded recession kicks in later this year, even if only in the USA it is bound to crap thus sector lower.

if so, will still be a good longer term buy. Well run company.
Please tell me which bank is paying 6% interest. ASB is only paying me 1.9% interest on my fast saver account.

[777]

https://www.heartland.co.nz/savings-and-deposits/interest-rates

And if you want to stay with the ASB then use their PIE account at 2.25%

https://www.asb.co.nz/bank-accounts/asb-cash-fund.html

Direct Broking have

NZD
up to 14,999.99 3.50% p.a.
15,000.00 to 49,999.99 3.80% p.a.
50,000.00 to 199,999.99 4.40% p.a.
200,000.00 to 999,999.99 4.40% p.a.
1,000,000.00 to 2,999,999.99 4.40% p.a.
3,000,000.00+ 4.40% p.a.

Don't know ASB Securities offer.

[Onemootpoint]

Please tell me which bank is paying 6% interest. ASB is only paying me 1.9% interest on my fast saver account.

The main banks pay at least 5.5% on a 12 month TD, Kiwibank 5.6% and some challenger banks 6% albeit on maturity.

As for the Fast Saver…..they don’t offer it anymore. Been replaced by their SoC that pays 2.25%. But why be content with that.
Kiwibank offers 3.85% for their on call. And 4.75% for their 90 day.

All this before any potential changes to the upside from a depositor’s pov, as the banks as yet have to respond to the 0.5% OCR increase a few days ago.

[nztx]

Please tell me which bank is paying 6% interest. ASB is only paying me 1.9% interest on my fast saver account.

Kiwibank are paying double your ASB slow interest slaver rate for online call - @ 3.85%

Ooops - onemootpoint is onto it :)

[FTG]

ASB's 'Savings Plus' account - 4.15%

[see weed]

Thanks all for your input. I like nzxts....ASB Slow interest Slaver:t_up:. Will give Heartland a call. I like the sound of 5.15% for 90days.

[percy]

I much prefer the SFF 7.939% 17 day rate.
Buy Silver Fern Farm [usx] shares on Tuesday at $1.65 and receive a fully imputed divie of 13.1 cents on the 28th April.

[777]

I much prefer the SFF 7.939% 17 day rate.
Buy Silver Fern Farm [usx] shares on Tuesday at $1.65 and receive a fully imputed divie of 13.1 cents on the 28th April.

Great rate if you could get it to automatically renew every 17 days.

[iceman]

Great rate if you could get it to automatically renew every 17 days.

I've held them for 3 years and the dividend yield has been 23% PA and the capital gain has been 100%. Not bad

[see weed]

I much prefer the SFF 7.939% 17 day rate.
Buy Silver Fern Farm [usx] shares on Tuesday at $1.65 and receive a fully imputed divie of 13.1 cents on the 28th April.
What is the ticker code for Silver Fern Farm, I tried SFF on the ASB site but there were no matches for that selection.

[percy]

What is the ticker code for Silver Fern Farm, I tried SFF on the ASB site but there were no matches for that selection.

SFF [Silver Fern Farms] trade on Unlisted www.usx.co.nz
The following brokers trade on USX;
Craigs
Jarden
Forsyth Barr
Hamilton Hindin Greene
J B Were
Hobson Wealth
Tribe Financial.

Appears ASB do not trade USX.

The record date to get the latest divie is 21st April.
I guess that would mean ex date would be the 18th or 19th.
Payment is the 28th April.
Currently 42,000 shares for sale at $1.65

[BlackPeter]

Posted 4th of April, SP = $5.76:

HLG goes ex div on 11/4/23. Get in now if you want the 24c div.


Hmm - is this a case of pay for the dividend to get it? By how much do you expect the SP to drop Ex dividend?

SP (@11/4 - Ex dividend) = $5.40

Share shed 36 cents in value to pay a 24 cents (partially imputed) dividend.

I realise that nobody can predict the future, but buying shares in order to still get a promised dividend is not always a great strategy ... ;

[Sideshow Bob]

What is the ticker code for Silver Fern Farm, I tried SFF on the ASB site but there were no matches for that selection.

On Unlisted - probably can't traded through ASB and would need a full service broker like Craoigs, Jarden, ForBar etc.

https://www.usx.co.nz/symbol/sff

[percy]

What is the ticker code for Silver Fern Farm, I tried SFF on the ASB site but there were no matches for that selection.

50,000 traded this morning at $1.62...8.08% dividend yield in 16 days..
Trust you were the buyer.

ps.Another divie in November.

[see weed]

50,000 traded this morning at $1.62...8.08% dividend yield in 16 days..
Trust you were the buyer.

ps.Another divie in November.
No not me. I only trade with ASB.

[see weed]

Posted 4th of April, SP = $5.76:




SP (@11/4 - Ex dividend) = $5.40

Share shed 36 cents in value to pay a 24 cents (partially imputed) dividend.

I realise that nobody can predict the future, but buying shares in order to still get a promised dividend is not always a great strategy ... ;
Yes, I agree with what you are saying. This always happens with HLG, and quite often about a 10c gap between buyer and seller. eg I buy 5000 shares at $5.45c and at end of day someone comes along and sells 20 shares worth about $100 for 5.35. You got to take the ups and downs with this stock because it is so illiquid. But if you in it for long haul then it is a good yld stock to have knowing sp will start going up again leading into next div. But interesting what Beagle/Basil is saying on the Stock Talk forum about HLG maybe entering the NZX50 next month. Where would sp go if that happened. For me it is a long term high yld investment. Also thank you to staff and Management for all your efforts and the wonderful big div yesterday. I feel like a winner if sp goes up or down. Sometimes I get excited when sp goes down as I can jump in and buy another few thousand. ps With all the stores in Aussi am waiting for the day when they decide to want a bit of the action and start buying into HLG.

[smbunn]

Interesting that the HLG price has risen so fats in the last 3 days, post the dividend. Why this quick movement, is something happening like the long discussed entry into the NZ Top 50?

[nztx]

someone been having a sniff around today :)

[clearasmud]

someone been having a sniff around today :)

According to Beagle its odds-on to get back into the NZX 50 next month. Index funds will have to buy.

[nztx]

According to Beagle its odds-on to get back into the NZX 50 next month. Index funds will have to buy.


Could be interesting looking at the share register.. not a lot get traded.

If the Aussies catch on to HLG operating on their turf, could be even more interesting :)

[clearasmud]

Could be interesting looking at the share register.. not a lot get traded.

If the Aussies catch on to HLG operating on their turf, could be even more interesting :)

You mean if HLG was dual listed then the Australian holders could receive franking credits, saving more imputation credits for the Kiwi taxpayers?

[nztx]

You mean if HLG was dual listed then the Australian holders could receive franking credits, saving more imputation credits for the Kiwi taxpayers?


That a possibility too, but may not happen .. not a lot of HLG scrip on the loose either .. a bit over 59m
on issue and a fair part of that will be tied up in hands of larger holders..

[winner69]

Could be interesting looking at the share register.. not a lot get traded.

If the Aussies catch on to HLG operating on their turf, could be even more interesting :)

An Aussie outfit we’re keen on HLG a few years ago …became a SSH pushing share price well over 7 bucks

Didn’t hang around for long and when they sold share price collapsed

[Sideshow Bob]

HY Report - http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/HLG/410558/393309.pdf

[BlackPeter]

HY Report - http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/HLG/410558/393309.pdf

Maybe history really repeats?

This feels like the "roaring twenties" ... young people dancing and peacocking as if there is no tomorrow, and HLG definitely found a way to benefit from that.

Mid term HLG might look to diversify into tailoring uniforms and camouflage ... they have been the great hits in the 30'íes and fourties.

Anyway - great result, but somewhat subdued outlook ... and the fashion shown is clearly not my taste anymore, but I probably don't belong to their target customer group anymore.

This young girl on the title page looks like she is wondering as well what the future might bring?

[see weed]

Posted 4th of April, SP = $5.76:




SP (@11/4 - Ex dividend) = $5.40

Share shed 36 cents in value to pay a 24 cents (partially imputed) dividend.

I realise that nobody can predict the future, but buying shares in order to still get a promised dividend is not always a great strategy ... ;
Posted on 12/4/23 and $5.40c ex div on the 11/4/23. I have to agree with you fully. Sometimes it works and sometimes it doesn't. This time for me it seem to have worked with sp up plus div has given me an extra 84k in last two and a half weeks that is if sp doesn't go down too much from here.:cool:

[Rawz]

Nice one Seaweed

[percy]

Posted on 12/4/23 and $5.40c ex div on the 11/4/23. I have to agree with you fully. Sometimes it works and sometimes it doesn't. This time for me it seem to have worked with sp up plus div has given me an extra 84k in last two and a half weeks that is if sp doesn't go down too much from here.:cool:

Well done...

[Balance]

Beagle is THE MAN!

Hope the indexing come through per his workings!

[winner69]

Remember not that long ago a few on here said HLG is a 10 buck stock - many laughed their heads off

Next update mid to late August with full year 23 sales and likely full year profit .....will be much higher than expected numbers, even higher than B's estimate

Then late September confirmation of of full year results but will be saying first 8 weeks of new year are well up on pcp...maybe even double digit …the growth story remains intact

Then December the ASM and they'll say F24 sales are still tracking well ahead of pcp ...jeez growth into 2024

They don't say much but three big updates before Christmas that 10 buck share price might be here by Christmas

[Balance]

Remember not that long ago a few on here said HLG is a 10 buck stock - many laughed their heads off

Next update mid to late August with full year 23 sales and likely full year profit .....will be much higher than expected numbers, even higher than B's estimate

Then late September confirmation of of full year results but will be saying first 8 weeks of new year are well up on pcp...maybe even double digit …the growth story remains intact

Then December the ASM and they'll say F24 sales are still tracking well ahead of pcp ...jeez growth into 2024

They don't say much but three big updates before Christmas that 10 buck share price might be here by Christmas

Indexing should take it to $8 imo.

It will be sayonara to my shares at that level.

[Waltzing]

half YTD stats variances on 2023-22 when compared to 21-20 are pretty consistent..

your going to say but 2023 sales had a huge increase and yes but percentages for GP to Sales when averaged in 23-22 and 21-20 look very very consistent.

Selling costs as a percentage of total costs for 2023 look at have actually gone down relative to prior years.

[bull....]

Indexing should take it to $8 imo.

It will be sayonara to my shares at that level.

i would be very surprised my self if its included in nz50 mainly basing my assessement on liquidy its 6 mt liquidy appears on average less than 10k per day only lowered by sanford over last 6 mth period.

[see weed]

i would be very surprised my self if its included in nz50 mainly basing my assessement on liquidy its 6 mt liquidy appears on average less than 10k per day only lowered by sanford over last 6 mth period.
Looks like HLG having a little sleep in this morning. Up $1.13c in 6 days, so it does deserve a little rest. I notice ASB Good Returns mentioned it possibly entering the NZX50 again last night. Bit of a waiting game now Baseagle. As for the liquidity, I would expect it to become very liquid for a while if it entered the x50.

[bull....]

Looks like HLG having a little sleep in this morning. Up $1.13c in 6 days, so it does deserve a little rest. I notice ASB Good Returns mentioned it possibly entering the NZX50 again last night. Bit of a waiting game now Baseagle. As for the liquidity, I would expect it to become very liquid for a while if it entered the x50.

big jump last week for sure , took the chance to off-load my stock yesterday after buying for the div previously. maybe i should thank those spec buyers who brought on nz50 speculation lol

[BlackPeter]

big jump last week for sure , took the chance to off-load my stock yesterday after buying for the div previously. maybe i should thank those spec buyers who brought on nz50 speculation lol

Good man - sensible move. Better to sell while the speculators are still happy to bid up the price in the NZX50 joining fever ... these things never stay on

[bull....]

the surprise RBA rate hike yesterday wont be good for retailers in Aus

RBA interest rate rise catches markets, banks and borrowers by surprise
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-05-02/rba-interest-rate-rise-may-2023/102292616

[Balance]

Australian economy will easily shrug off any impact from the miserly 0.25% rate rise yesterday :

“Australia expects net migration to surge to a record 400,000 people in the fiscal year ending June, almost doubling from forecast …..”

This is the huge difference between Australia and NZ :

1. Australian economy rides on a cushion of mineral & diversified wealth

2. Continuous high migration flow facilitated by a progressive government policy

3. A vigilant RBA who attempts to stay ahead of the curve with the benefit of a deeper and more robust economy

[winner69]

HLG a big boy now

In NZX50 …again

Watch the action recommence

https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/documents/indexnews/announcements/20230503-1463800/1463800_20230503-nzx-pph.pdf

[Rawz]

Well Beagle nailed it again… what a legend

[Balance]

$8.00 …. Here we go!!!!

[Baa_Baa]

$8.00 …. Here we go!!!!

This will be interesting, let's see how the big guns navigate such low liquidity, guess big gap up tomorrow from punters/speculators and then as this takes effect, a hold-out on the Ask forcing constraints on volume buy's, like why sell now when you can string-out the big money for much higher prices. More interesting might be whether long hold money decides to provide some Ask volume and exit some of theirs into the bid.

[winner69]

This will be interesting, let's see how the big guns navigate such low liquidity, guess big gap up tomorrow from punters/speculators and then as this takes effect, a hold-out on the Ask forcing constraints on volume buy's, like why sell now when you can string-out the big money for much higher prices. More interesting might be whether long hold money decides to provide some Ask volume and exit some of theirs into the bid.


I’m not giving them mine ….yet

[ValueNZ]

$8.00 …. Here we go!!!!
A stock is worth 50% more because it's been added to the NZX50?

[Onemootpoint]

This will be interesting, let's see how the big guns navigate such low liquidity, guess big gap up tomorrow from punters/speculators and then as this takes effect, a hold-out on the Ask forcing constraints on volume buy's, like why sell now when you can string-out the big money for much higher prices. More interesting might be whether long hold money decides to provide some Ask volume and exit some of theirs into the bid.

it will definitely be an interesting watch and how and when it all plays out.

[Balance]

A stock is worth 50% more because it's been added to the NZX50?

It has always been worth a lot more than it has been trading at imo - lack of interest from brokers, analysts and instos due to it not being in the NZX50.

Now they have no option but to take interest.

They will find a well managed company with an excellent track record and a reliable high dividend yielder. And an outstanding conservative balance sheet with cash in the bank - similar to Briscoes.

And with its inclusion in the NZX50, they are going to have to pay up to get set as the stock is tightly held by mostly retail investors and management/directors.

Happy times ahead!

[Balance]

big jump last week for sure , took the chance to off-load my stock yesterday after buying for the div previously. maybe i should thank those spec buyers who brought on nz50 speculation lol

Nice one, BS.

Now you are going to tell us you bought back today, right?

[Baa_Baa]

A stock is worth 50% more because it's been added to the NZX50?

Worth more, or priced more? Don't confuse the market price, with the company value. It could easily be priced more by the market, despite whatever value you assign to it. Getting into the NZX50 (again) is a big deal, there's some big money that are literally forced to take a position, and there's feck all sellers on any given day. What do they say, when demand exceeds supply? Price goes up, it's just a market doing its thing.

Tomorrow and next few days will be very interesting, like who wants a piece of this who hasn't already got some? Before the big money, so you can sell to them when it gets silly over priced. It doesn't happen all that often, but it's happening now with this one. Enjoy, it's rare that small holders have any advantage. Only disadvantage is the minnows are not experienced in taking that advantage.

[alokdhir]

Well Beagle nailed it again… what a legend

Check MLN thread to know how your " Legend " was ramping it at 1.55 + .....but all is forgotten if money made on HLG ...well done buddy !!!

[Balance]

Check MLN thread to know how your " Legend " was ramping it at 1.55 + .....but all is forgotten if money made on HLG ...well done buddy !!!

Know the poster and know how they play.

Essential!

[alokdhir]

Know the poster and know how they play.

Essential!

Thats exactly I was trying to put across ....Legends are in our mind only if we dont see the whole picture ....

[Rawz]

I hear ya alokdhir but Beagle did the numbers on the other place in detail and was right. Give credit where credit is due.

Balance will get similar praise if he is right about an OCA cap raise..

FM got Smartpay correct very early and is also a legend.

I’ll give you praise if you make a big call on something and are right :)

I’m a fair man. There’s lots of legends around actually

[Onemootpoint]

It has always been worth a lot more than it has been trading at imo - lack of interest from brokers, analysts and instos due to it not being in the NZX50.

Now they have no option but to take interest.

They will find a well managed company with an excellent track record and a reliable high dividend yielder. And an outstanding conservative balance sheet with cash in the bank - similar to Briscoes.

And with its inclusion in the NZX50, they are going to have to pay up to get set as the stock is tightly held by mostly retail investors and management/directors.

Happy times ahead!

Well summarised.
Acknowledged by others elsewhere too.
:)

[alokdhir]

I hear ya alokdhir but Beagle did the numbers on the other place in detail and was right. Give credit where credit is due.

Balance will get similar praise if he is right about an OCA cap raise..

FM got Smartpay correct very early and is also a legend.

I’ll give you praise if you make a big call on something and are right :)

I’m a fair man. There’s lots of legends around actually

Good on you mate ...Many made calls on FPH reaching $ 10 also ...which made many sell and feel happy ...hope u got the point ...lol ...yes credit is due to u also for forgetting such stuff ....but thats being positive I recon ....like HGH / WHS / what not !!!

Why listen to perma Bull ....who said bottom made in last June ....maybe perma Bull ...not many here ...was called upramper at that time ....

[Muse]

Agree w/ what both Baa Baa and Balance who are coming from different perspectives.

The index pop is going to be fascinating to watch. Some index inclusions have been subdued affairs and some have been spectacular - Meridian Energy inclusion into some offshore index in January 2021 springs to mind - where it had been trading at about $5.50, popped to $9.14 and within a few months was back at $5.00. For a stock with such low liquidity, and a reported 1.4m shares needed to be purchased by index trackers, would expect a nice pop as index trackers purchase. Trick will be keeping ones eye on the cumulative shares traded and watching that SP, as when the trackers are done purchasing, demand will disappear and there will still be sellers who had been holding out for higher prices, and now fearful the SP has peaked will have to meet the market on the way down in order to lock in profits. Goes up fast, can go back down fast - hence, index pop.

That said everything Balance said about the benefits of NX50 inclusion are absolutely valid. Inclusion brings more awareness of the stock, increased pool and diversity of holders and new buyers, & the potential for research - all good stuff and the right ingredients for a re-rate holding all other things constant.

Ultimately though its the financial performance of the company that will dictate price of the stock after index inclusion is bedded down. Remember all the pumping associated with the Warehouse over its NZX50 inclusion in April/May of 2022? Must had been mentioned hundreds of times in the lead up to its inclusion, but despite the inclusion its share price still down 50% since then. It's likely to be booted out at some point as well (again, for the umpteenth time).

In that respect index inclusion could be coming at an opportune time as retail trading conditions deteriorate in OZ. ABS shows rapidly slowing clothing sales: January 17.4%, February 6.2%, March 3.6% (well below inflation). The most timely and widely watched dataset is CBA's internal credit card spending data series (as the largest card issuer in Australia), and they noted clothing retail sales went negative in the last week of March. It's difficult in my view to paint an honest picture that Australian clothing retail isn't facing significant headwinds. There hasn't been an update since as CBA are working on an improved card spend report, which will be released next week.

14567

The Forsyth Barr NZX50 Index Tracker has indeed proved to be a very good resource for those of you interested in index inclusions/exclusions (the underlying source to the speculation). In the end, HLG's free float adjusted market cap was ~3% more than Napier Ports, despite having ~35% worse free float adjusted liquidity. None the less, it met the minimum absolute and relative liquidity tests, so by rights got inclusion into the index. And as noted elsewhere, the most recent joiners are often the most recent leavers as well. HLG been in the NZX50 before, booted out before, with no enduring re-rate.

Will be fun to watch - get a bag of pop corn - and see where the liquidity comes from and the price that must be paid to secure it. Just don't be surprised when momentum traders dressed as investors sell into the pop.

Congrats to holders, enjoy it and if you take advantage good on ya.

[RupertBear]

Agree w/ what both Baa Baa and Balance who are coming from different perspectives.

The index pop is going to be fascinating to watch. Some index inclusions have been subdued affairs and some have been spectacular - Meridian Energy inclusion into some offshore index in January 2021 springs to mind - where it had been trading at about $5.50, popped to $9.14 and within a few months was back at $5.00. For a stock with such low liquidity, and a reported 1.4m shares needed to be purchased by index trackers, would expect a nice pop as index trackers purchase. Trick will be keeping ones eye on the cumulative shares traded and watching that SP, as when the trackers are done purchasing, demand will disappear and there will still be sellers who had been holding out for higher prices, and now fearful the SP has peaked will have to meet the market on the way down in order to lock in profits. Goes up fast, can go back down fast - hence, index pop.

That said everything Balance said about the benefits of NX50 inclusion are absolutely valid. Inclusion brings more awareness of the stock, increased pool and diversity of holders and new buyers, & the potential for research - all good stuff and the right ingredients for a re-rate holding all other things constant.

Ultimately though its the financial performance of the company that will dictate price of the stock after index inclusion is bedded down. Remember all the pumping associated with the Warehouse over its NZX50 inclusion in April/May of 2022? Must had been mentioned hundreds of times in the lead up to its inclusion, but despite the inclusion its share price still down 50% since then. It's likely to be booted out at some point as well (again, for the umpteenth time).

In that respect index inclusion could be coming at an opportune time as retail trading conditions deteriorate in OZ. ABS shows rapidly slowing clothing sales: January 17.4%, February 6.2%, March 3.6% (well below inflation). The most timely and widely watched dataset is CBA's internal credit card spending data series (as the largest card issuer in Australia), and they noted clothing retail sales went negative in the last week of March. It's difficult in my view to paint an honest picture that Australian clothing retail isn't facing significant headwinds. There hasn't been an update since as CBA are working on an improved card spend report, which will be released next week.

14567

The Forsyth Barr NZX50 Index Tracker has indeed proved to be a very good resource for those of you interested in index inclusions/exclusions (the underlying source to the speculation). In the end, HLG's free float adjusted market cap was ~3% more than Napier Ports, despite having ~35% worse free float adjusted liquidity. None the less, it met the minimum absolute and relative liquidity tests, so by rights got inclusion into the index. And as noted elsewhere, the most recent joiners are often the most recent leavers as well. HLG been in the NZX50 before, booted out before, with no enduring re-rate.

Will be fun to watch - get a bag of pop corn - and see where the liquidity comes from and the price that must be paid to secure it. Just don't be surprised when momentum traders dressed as investors sell into the pop.

Congrats to holders, enjoy it and if you take advantage good on ya.

Another excellent post thanks FM. :) I would give you a positive rep vote but I need to share the love first :p

[see weed]

Congratulations to all holders, and thank you Baseagle for all your valuable input. Will have to go and celebrate somewhere.

[nztx]

Oz Today:

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-05-03/record-high-living-costs-businesses-contracting-interest-rates/102296992?

The cost of living has reached a record high, businesses are struggling, and interest rates are rising. Is a recession coming?

[bull....]

Agree w/ what both Baa Baa and Balance who are coming from different perspectives.

The index pop is going to be fascinating to watch. Some index inclusions have been subdued affairs and some have been spectacular - Meridian Energy inclusion into some offshore index in January 2021 springs to mind - where it had been trading at about $5.50, popped to $9.14 and within a few months was back at $5.00. For a stock with such low liquidity, and a reported 1.4m shares needed to be purchased by index trackers, would expect a nice pop as index trackers purchase. Trick will be keeping ones eye on the cumulative shares traded and watching that SP, as when the trackers are done purchasing, demand will disappear and there will still be sellers who had been holding out for higher prices, and now fearful the SP has peaked will have to meet the market on the way down in order to lock in profits. Goes up fast, can go back down fast - hence, index pop.

That said everything Balance said about the benefits of NX50 inclusion are absolutely valid. Inclusion brings more awareness of the stock, increased pool and diversity of holders and new buyers, & the potential for research - all good stuff and the right ingredients for a re-rate holding all other things constant.

Ultimately though its the financial performance of the company that will dictate price of the stock after index inclusion is bedded down. Remember all the pumping associated with the Warehouse over its NZX50 inclusion in April/May of 2022? Must had been mentioned hundreds of times in the lead up to its inclusion, but despite the inclusion its share price still down 50% since then. It's likely to be booted out at some point as well (again, for the umpteenth time).

In that respect index inclusion could be coming at an opportune time as retail trading conditions deteriorate in OZ. ABS shows rapidly slowing clothing sales: January 17.4%, February 6.2%, March 3.6% (well below inflation). The most timely and widely watched dataset is CBA's internal credit card spending data series (as the largest card issuer in Australia), and they noted clothing retail sales went negative in the last week of March. It's difficult in my view to paint an honest picture that Australian clothing retail isn't facing significant headwinds. There hasn't been an update since as CBA are working on an improved card spend report, which will be released next week.

14567

The Forsyth Barr NZX50 Index Tracker has indeed proved to be a very good resource for those of you interested in index inclusions/exclusions (the underlying source to the speculation). In the end, HLG's free float adjusted market cap was ~3% more than Napier Ports, despite having ~35% worse free float adjusted liquidity. None the less, it met the minimum absolute and relative liquidity tests, so by rights got inclusion into the index. And as noted elsewhere, the most recent joiners are often the most recent leavers as well. HLG been in the NZX50 before, booted out before, with no enduring re-rate.

Will be fun to watch - get a bag of pop corn - and see where the liquidity comes from and the price that must be paid to secure it. Just don't be surprised when momentum traders dressed as investors sell into the pop.

Congrats to holders, enjoy it and if you take advantage good on ya.

excellent post and yes you dont want to end up like poor meridian buyers who paid at 9 - 10 dollars ( not saying price will behave like that )
your most likely never get money back

anyway index funds who already own hlg ie small cap funds will need to sell now as it has been removed from those index's

[Balance]

Bull .... at his BS best :


excellent post and yes you dont want to end up like poor meridian buyers who paid at 9 - 10 dollars ( not saying price will behave like that )
your most likely never get money back

anyway index funds who already own hlg ie small cap funds will need to sell now as it has been removed from those index's


i would be very surprised my self if its included in nz50 mainly basing my assessement on liquidy its 6 mt liquidy appears on average less than 10k per day only lowered by sanford over last 6 mth period.


big jump last week for sure , took the chance to off-load my stock yesterday after buying for the div previously. maybe i should thank those spec buyers who brought on nz50 speculation lol

[BlackPeter]

A stock is worth 50% more because it's been added to the NZX50?

Of course not, but don't spoil the fun of the traders ... and hey - sometimes hype can create amazing short term waves. Give it a couple of days and the hype will be gone.

The only thing which counts mid and long term is earnings capacity. And yes, some people think HLG will keep growing in Australia. If it does, SP will grow as well. If it doesn't, it won't. Has nothing to do with being in the NZX50 or not.

Index additions and removals only might create molehills ... if this happens here, make sure you dance very close to the exit and be prepared for the stampede if the masses perceive HLG reached the top of the hill and everybody wants out.

[Balance]

Estimated 1.4m shares to buy over 5 trading days to meet the passive index funds' requirement.

Going to be very interesting indeed how the next 5 trading days play out.

[bull....]

Bull .... at his BS best :

no sh.it only thing i had wrongg was my liquidity opinion was not cap weighted but was correct from a pure liquidity side of things anyway im still out as retail is going to slow even for hlg so agree with bp comments not worth chasing be able to buy it cheaper some time in the future

looks like the funds are moving into sell to the chasers this morning

[clearasmud]

Estimated 1.4m shares to buy over 5 trading days to meet the passive index funds' requirement.

Going to be very interesting indeed how the next 5 trading days play out.

Is it in the NZX50?

[Balance]

no sh.it only thing i had wrongg was my liquidity opinion was not cap weighted but was correct from a pure liquidity side of things anyway im still out as retail is going to slow even for hlg so agree with bp comments not worth chasing be able to buy it cheaper some time in the future

looks like the funds are moving into sell to the chasers this morning

You were never in the stock in the first place.

Take your BS elsewhere.

[bull....]

You were never in the stock in the first place.

Take your BS elsewhere.

like i said sold out the other day on the spike ... with all your ramping you probably brought mine lol

[Balance]

like i said sold out the other day on the spike ... with all your ramping you probably brought mine lol

I bought mine st $5.10 and am happy to watch the action unfold.

Warning to all newbie posters on this site - bull… is hindsight Charlie who posts on any stock where there is activity. His posts are always about him buying or selling ahead of the market action to try and make himself look good and attract a following like some of the legends here.

Been waiting for an opportunity to really catch him out and he fell for it here.

So be warned.

[bull....]

I bought mine st $5.10 and am happy to watch the action unfold.

Warning to all newbie posters on this site - bull… is hindsight Charlie who posts on any stock where there is activity. His oats are always about him buying or selling ahead of the market action to try and make himself look good and attract a following like some of the Leng ends here.

So be warned.

be warned newbies balance knows jack and just follows his idol beagle who is by the way the biggest ramper out

[Balance]

be warned newbies balance knows jack and just follows his idol beagle who is by the way the biggest ramper out

Very happy to stand on my track record.

Very happy too to admit I do not always get it all right.

Very very happy.

[bull....]

Very happy to stand on my track record.

Very happy too to admit I do not always get it all right.

Very very happy.

think it was me on this thread telling you to get out at over 7 , guess you must have listened to me if you brought at 5 again ... trader balance

[Greekwatchdog]

think it was me on this thread telling you to get out at over 7 , guess you must have listened to me if you brought at 5 again ... trader balance

Bull and Balance, Both of you grow up. Another thread gone to the dogs literally. As we say in Poker Put up or shut up, or just call and both of you show your hands once and for all

[Balance]

think it was me on this thread telling you to get out at over 7 , guess you must have listened to me if you brought at 5 again ... trader balance

You wouldn’t have a clue.

But keep with your hindsight postings - nobody here is fooled anymore except for newbies and they are now warned.

Very very happy!

[Balance]

Bull and Balance, Both of you grow up. Another thread gone to the dogs literally. As we say in Poker Put up or shut up, or just call and both of you show your hands once and for all

You have a problem with me calling out a fraud?

[Greekwatchdog]

You have a problem with me calling out a fraud?

provide the cold hard evidence Balance. Words don't do it.

[Balance]

provide the cold hard evidence Balance. Words don't do it.

The evidence is there for those with eyes and sense to see with bull… hindsight postings.

You know best so let’s leave my warning for the newbies.

In any case, best you keep out of it and concentrate on your OCA position.

[bull....]

haha hindsight only have to look back on this thread bull was saying get out at the top over $7 because of the coming down turn
why balance and and his mate beagle and co were busy ramping by saying its going to 10$. just like they all did on oca
all on this thread for all to see

[Greekwatchdog]

The evidence is there for those with eyes and sense to see with bull… hindsight postings.

You know best so let’s leave my warning for the newbies.

In any case, best you keep out of it and concentrate on your OCA position.

Really Balance? In some parts of the world you can be sued for that ****e. Like I said both of you show your cards.

I don't worry about OCA it takes care of it self as management are running the show. Beside wrong Thread this is HLG.

[bull....]

actually all this bickering shows is that the rampers get very upset when someone says something that might upset there plans

[Greekwatchdog]

actually all this bickering shows is that the rampers get very upset when someone says something that might upset there plans

I don't hold HLG, and you aren't trustworthy so Literally put the Bull to bed and show your cards.

[bull....]

I don't hold HLG, and you aren't trustworthy so Literally put the Bull to bed and show your cards.

whats there to show i sold out i posted this before announcement of inclusion and i have no intention of buying back at the moment

[Balance]

I don't hold HLG, and you aren't trustworthy so Literally put the Bull to bed and show your cards.

OCAis being taken care of management real well! Sp down by 50%.

What cards?

That I hold HLG and am very very happy that it is getting the recognition that it deserves by being back in the NZX50.

Very very happy with HLG and waiting for the OCA results announcement.

[Greekwatchdog]

whats there to show i sold out i posted this before announcement

Show you bought in and show you sold. Simple end to this dribble

[bull....]

Show you bought in and show you sold. Simple end to this dribble

lol your as bad as sailor

[bull....]

OCAis being taken care of management real well! Sp down by 50%.

What cards?

That I hold HLG and am very very happy that it is getting the recognition that it deserves by being back in the NZX50.

Very very happy with HLG and waiting for the OCA results announcement.

best wishes with your hlg ill stick to my economic reasoning

[Balance]

best wishes with your hlg ill stick to my economic reasoning

Very very happy with my HLG.

Most satisfying to call out a fraud like you … hindsight bull…

[Greekwatchdog]

[QUOTE=Balance;1001939]OCAis being taken care of management real well! Sp down by 50%.

Balance, since when do Management control the housing market? They don't. All the can concentrate on is doing what they are doing. Anyway OCA on on another thread.

What cards? Both you and Bull. Show you buys and sells of HLG.

[see weed]

And now on a happier note. I don't know what all the fuss is about, but it is very entertaining. I have been buying in for div etc for last 10 or so months with my lowest buy at $4.99c and am very happy with investment so far which is up 84k including div. Have bought about 25 blocks and have still got a few more blocks to buy before inclusion date. So now that is my hand and have a happy rest of day and a dancing I shall go. Ps Basiagle had a lot of good info and input, so thank you Baseagle.:t_up:

[Balance]

[QUOTE=Balance;1001939]OCAis being taken care of management real well! Sp down by 50%.

Balance, since when do Management control the housing market? They don't. All the can concentrate on is doing what they are doing. Anyway OCA on on another thread.

What cards? Both you and Bull. Show you buys and sells of HLG.

$1,000 bet that I can show you I bought HLG at $5.10.

You ready to earn a quick $1,000 based on your courage to call out frauds?

You will not get such a bet with bull… so you ready to make some money?

[bull....]

[QUOTE=Greekwatchdog;1001947]

$1,000 bet that I can show you I bought HLG at $5.10.

You ready to earn a quick $1,000 based on your courage to call out frauds?

You will not get such a bet with bull… so you ready to make some money?

$ 1000 for me too if greek puts it up in my a/c first so i know he not full of it and ill show i sold before announcement

[Balance]

Estimated 1.4m shares to buy over 5 trading days to meet the passive index funds' requirement.

Going to be very interesting indeed how the next 5 trading days play out.

Finished on its high for the first day of the 5 days.

Playing out very well towards the $8.00 by index day!

[winner69]

Finished on its high for the first day of the 5 days.

Playing out very well towards the $8.00 by index day!

Bit of a rush at the close ….trying to beat higher prices at tomorrows open eh.

[Balance]

Bit of a rush at the close ….trying to beat higher prices at tomorrows open eh.

Well played by the instos - they mopped up stock from the nervous holders/traders before really paying up to get more stock in late afternoon.

Unless one of the big boys come out to provide stock, there is only one direction for the sp action imo.

[Rawz]

35,000 shares on offer at $6.80

Must be Seeweed?

[Balance]

35,000 shares on offer at $6.80

Must be Seeweed?

Or Beagle.

Good to see stock being supplied - need to lead the sp towards $8.00.

The instos trading the stock will have a good idea of where the sp is likely to settle on indexing day so good to see them paying up.

[Rawz]

Or Beagle.

Good to see stock being supplied - need to lead the sp towards $8.00.

The instos trading the stock will have a good idea of where the sp is likely to settle on indexing day so good to see them paying up.

Besagle said HLG worth $10. Or was that Winner69?

[winner69]

Besagle said HLG worth $10. Or was that Winner69?

No, was Balance last year ….before NZX50 inclusion

[Sideshow Bob]

Been a crazy ride over the last 2 weeks.

Too the moon.....!! ***insert rocket emoji***

[Rawz]

HLG be a billion dollar company one day

[see weed]

35,000 shares on offer at $6.80

Must be Seeweed?
No not me I am still buying

[Jantar]

Besagle said HLG worth $10. Or was that Winner69? $10 would be nice. My valuation as of the last divi announcement back in March is $8.55.

[nztx]

at just 4 x NTA and a princely dividend - looks like a steal :)

[bull....]

not a good look ... using slave labour ?

Popular New Zealand clothing brands Glassons and Hallenstein Bros failed to publicly disclose basic information on where their clothes are manufactured and the workers in their factories

https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/lifestyle/2023/05/glassons-hallensteins-lagging-behind-international-transparency-standards-on-where-their-clothes-are-made-oxfam.html

[BlackPeter]

not a good look ... using slave labour ?

Popular New Zealand clothing brands Glassons and Hallenstein Bros failed to publicly disclose basic information on where their clothes are manufactured and the workers in their factories

https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/lifestyle/2023/05/glassons-hallensteins-lagging-behind-international-transparency-standards-on-where-their-clothes-are-made-oxfam.html


Interesting.

I see that HLG got a rating of 2 out of 5 - which is pretty much as bad as it can get. Kathmandu on the other hand gets a 5 out of 5 rating!

[bull....]

what happens if there found unethical does that mean ethical funds have to sell ?

[BlackPeter]

what happens if there found unethical does that mean ethical funds have to sell ?

Good question ... don't think though, that there are a lot of funds holding HLG, which sort of makes this question hypothetical :) ;

[Rawz]

HLG to hit $7 today (surely)

[CrustyPlums]

I am loving the banter in here. I have held HLG for the last few years and I always pop in here to see what is going on if there is a major movement in the stock price.
I would just like to say thanks to everyone who has input. As a bit of an investment noobie I appreciate your wisdom. :)

I have a question though all things considered with HLG when do you decide it is a good time to sell some or all of your stock if at all. I mean I know they are not a growth stock and they do pay a fairly good dividend. Do you just sit back enjoy the ride and collect the dividend as I have been doing or do you use some well considered judgement to make the call that the stock is peaking and your money could be better invested elsewhere? What sort of methods do you use to decide such things?

[Jay]

As a rank amateur t/a person, the RSI is over 70 so will get some down days before more ups as we go.
As long as it keeps going up back up past what it went down I'll be happy!

SP seems to go in waves though, when is inclusion day again - 11th, if so maybe sell tomorrow if your a trader??

[jimdog31]

As a rank amateur t/a person, the RSI is over 70 so will get some down days before more ups as we go.
As long as it keeps going up back up past what it went down I'll be happy!

SP seems to go in waves though, when is inclusion day again - 11th, if so maybe sell tomorrow if your a trader??

Isnt it close of business today?

[Muse]

Yes.

1.742 million shares traded today, including 1.482 million at the closing match.

1.5 million was said to be the magic number, and that came filled this arvo. Heavier volume prior likely spec volume.

Looks like all done and dusted. Decent lift but perhaps not what the spec traders had hoped for?

Time to watch the other side of the inclusion. I recall it took Meridian ~2 months before it gave up all the gains made following the announcement of its 2021 offshore green index inclusion. Probably each different but interesting case studies, these index pops.

[bull....]

Yes.

1.742 million shares traded today, including 1.482 million at the closing match.

1.5 million was said to be the magic number, and that came filled this arvo. Heavier volume prior likely spec volume.

Looks like all done and dusted. Decent lift but perhaps not what the spec traders had hoped for?

Time to watch the other side of the inclusion. I recall it took Meridian ~2 months before it gave up all the gains made following the announcement of its 2021 offshore green index inclusion. Probably each different but interesting case studies, these index pops.

i didnt end up missing out on too much selling just before index announcement inclusion .... phew

anyway i see retail sales declined again in aus annoucement yesterday

Official data confirms Australia in a 'consumer recession' as retail sales drop
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-05-09/official-data-confirms-australia-in-a-consumer-recession/102322380

[alokdhir]

Yes.

1.742 million shares traded today, including 1.482 million at the closing match.

1.5 million was said to be the magic number, and that came filled this arvo. Heavier volume prior likely spec volume.

Looks like all done and dusted. Decent lift but perhaps not what the spec traders had hoped for?

Time to watch the other side of the inclusion. I recall it took Meridian ~2 months before it gave up all the gains made following the announcement of its 2021 offshore green index inclusion. Probably each different but interesting case studies, these index pops.

It may not take HLG two months to normalise ..just my opinion ...though its a retail stock for its stable dividend yield but normal vols are pretty low ...may improve a bit on its inclusion but still it can easily drift down on low vols easily ...

Most optimistic eps estimate of 62 cents ahead ...with retail recession around shud bring it to 5.50 easily . Bull wud be happy !!

Fun times maybe over for a time being imo ...look for Gurus cashing out if they haven't in yesterdays closing auction ...as was easy to sell in large volumes

[bull....]

It may not take HLG two months to normalise ..just my opinion ...though its a retail stock for its stable dividend yield but normal vols are pretty low ...may improve a bit on its inclusion but still it can easily drift down on low vols easily ...

Most optimistic eps estimate of 62 cents ahead ...with retail recession around shud bring it to 5.50 easily . Bull wud be happy !!

Fun times maybe over for a time being imo ...look for Gurus cashing out if they haven't in yesterdays closing auction ...as was easy to sell in large volumes

looks all downhill now after the artificial buying interest ... hope balance got out

[BlackPeter]

looks all downhill now after the artificial buying interest ... hope balance got out

More like down the fence post rather than down the hill :) ;

Anyway - interesting to see again how easy it is to play index funds. Given this Achilles heel it is however still more surprising, that they tend to beat most actively managed funds most of the time.

Tells you something.

[bull....]

looks like its heading back to low 5 dollars ? from where it took off prior to index speculation

[see weed]

big jump last week for sure , took the chance to off-load my stock yesterday after buying for the div previously. maybe i should thank those spec buyers who brought on nz50 speculation lol
This quote from 8626. I worked out you would of sold for somewhere between 6.66 to 6.43 on 1/5/23. That was good but I do think it has to go through the low 6s before it gets to the low 5s, time will tell. At what price would you jump back in. HLG yld = +7%. Money in bank 5.2% on term deposit.

[bull....]

This quote from 8626. I worked out you would of sold for somewhere between 6.66 to 6.43 on 1/5/23. That was good but I do think it has to go through the low 6s before it gets to the low 5s, time will tell. At what price would you jump back in. HLG yld = +7%. Money in bank 5.2% on term deposit.

dont have a price in mind at moment as would like to see how economic conditions in nz/aus pan out but on a chart it has a good base of support around 5.15 - 5.40

did you take opp to get out ?

[Baa_Baa]

Yes.

1.742 million shares traded today, including 1.482 million at the closing match.

1.5 million was said to be the magic number, and that came filled this arvo. Heavier volume prior likely spec volume.

Looks like all done and dusted. Decent lift but perhaps not what the spec traders had hoped for?

Time to watch the other side of the inclusion. I recall it took Meridian ~2 months before it gave up all the gains made following the announcement of its 2021 offshore green index inclusion. Probably each different but interesting case studies, these index pops.

Considering the usual illiquidity and low daily average volumes, where would the millions of shares sold have come from?

[see weed]

dont have a price in mind at moment as would like to see how economic conditions in nz/aus pan out but on a chart it has a good base of support around 5.15 - 5.40

did you take opp to get out ?
I tried but got overwhelmed with all the big numbers and had a friend visiting right on closing and couldn't concentrate. and I only have 10 lines of buyers and sellers and couldn't see the true numbers of buyers and sellers, so couldn't figure out if sp was going up or down on close so decided to keep them. I really felt like a stunned possum in the headlights of the coming....

[alokdhir]

I tried but got overwhelmed with all the big numbers and had a friend visiting right on closing and couldn't concentrate. and I only have 10 lines of buyers and sellers and couldn't see the true numbers of buyers and sellers, so couldn't figure out if sp was going up or down on close so decided to keep them. I really felt like a stunned possum in the headlights of the coming....

Shud have put a sell order at closing auction ...as it was supposed to be best price for accumulators to transfer to original index fund orders ....many thought it will be in excess of $ 7 but alas some took this chance to offload big vols at one go and at great price too

Now to sell even 20000 shares ...U need work hard !!!

But really refreshing to experience honesty here ...from your post !!

[bull....]

I tried but got overwhelmed with all the big numbers and had a friend visiting right on closing and couldn't concentrate. and I only have 10 lines of buyers and sellers and couldn't see the true numbers of buyers and sellers, so couldn't figure out if sp was going up or down on close so decided to keep them. I really felt like a stunned possum in the headlights of the coming....

those brokers who dont display matching close prices are bloody annoying .... caveman practice i reckon

[nztx]

those brokers who dont display matching close prices are bloody annoying .... caveman practice i reckon


Hey Bull, you not been selling already ? :)

[see weed]

Shud have put a sell order at closing auction ...as it was supposed to be best price for accumulators to transfer to original index fund orders ....many thought it will be in excess of $ 7 but alas some took this chance to offload big vols at one go and at great price too

Now to sell even 20000 shares ...U need work hard !!!

But really refreshing to experience honesty here ...from your post !!
I had a sell order in but cancelled it 2 min before close because I couldn't see the true depth of the number of buyers and sellers. They only show 10 lines of buyers and 10 lines of sellers. Am not too worried, finally sold two small blocks on close today at 5k profit. Am only getting 1% interest in c/m account so might have to buy them back again at a later date.

[alokdhir]

I had a sell order in but cancelled it 2 min before close because I couldn't see the true depth of the number of buyers and sellers. They only show 10 lines of buyers and 10 lines of sellers. Am not too worried, finally sold two small blocks on close today at 5k profit. Am only getting 1% interest in c/m account so might have to buy them back again at a later date.

As I also use ASB Securities so I fully understand your situation and thoughts ...How I circumvent this dilemma is to put order at minimum acceptable price at closing auction and then wait for closing price to come ...if it's over my price then mine gone otherwise I still have them .

Other way is to watch from 4.45 till closing all entires ...most important ones get hidden with inconsequential ones towards the end ...but if u keep track right from start then u can have a good idea of closing price

[Muse]

Considering the usual illiquidity and low daily average volumes, where would the millions of shares sold have come from?

Good question. Once upon a time I had an Iress & Bloomberg terminal where you could see what brokers the volume was coming from (via insto or retail) but no longer. But we can infer it by looking at the register.

HLG as retail as they come. Tim Glasson the only substantial shareholder with a 20% stake and no SSH notice from him so he is off the table. There are no other substantial shareholders so unless a pre-existing large but non-substantial shareholder was buying (unlikely) we shouldn't expect to see any SSH notices. We haven't seen any mgmt. or director notices either (what a look that would be!)

The ACC holds 3.38%, the Hickman's at 1.79%, and then a slew of broker retail nominee co's, plus a few HNW holding vehicles. Tracing through some of the nominees the only insto we can see is Dimensional Fund Advisers out of the USA who hold less than 1%.

I think we can safely assume all the broker nominee co's hold on behalf of retail (whether on full authority, discretionary or otherwise). HLG has got a really long tail of small and medium retail holders holding in their own right.

In the year leading up to the announcement of HLG's inclusion it had average daily volume of ~15.3k shares per day. Post that day I estimate an incremental ~2.7m shares were purchased, with 1.5m for the index inclusion and 1.2m speculating on gains from the inclusion. To put it in proportion, the level of excess volume equated to 4.5% of outstanding shares.

We'll never know exactly where the volume for this came from but I'd wager price signals sent from the rising buy demand were enough to elicit sell downs from individual holders. Retail headwinds are high and the whole sector (including best of breeds in Australia) are being negatively downrated with their own SP's falling and holders would be reactive to rising prices in that environment.

There is also good broker led retail custodianship of HLG shares with all the usual broker custodian names held in the top 20. The broker would have discretion in a good deal of these underlying interests and I also reckon they sold some down to meet demand.

I thought one broker was uncharacteristically harsh of HLG's inclusion to the NZX50: "a sad day with the delisting of growth stock Pushpay which will contribute to the ongoing shrinking of the NZ Stock Exchange. Equally as sad is the inclusion of trusty old Hallenstein Glasson's into the NZX50 as its replacement - illustrating the extraordinary lack of depth in the NZ stock market." I can imagine how they would direct their discretionary positions.

There may have been some spec buying in the lead up to the NZX50 announcement after people initially read the Forbar research but trading patterns from the date of that report to when the stock went up suggest if there was any it was very 2 bit in nature. So the demand wasn't satisfied by the incremental purchases after reading Forbar research, but existing holders making incremental spec purchases very well may have sold down into the inclusion (but still likely small beans).

What's more of interest is what happens to the 1.2m of shares that look to have been purchased with speculative intent. By all accounts the index pop looks to be disappointing and the SP has been steadily trending down post inclusion. These sort of buyers don't scream committed long term holder (of whom they displaced) and with the SP now in steady decline suggest a potential large uncommitted overhang wanting to get out if gains can't be secured. But with normal average daily volume of ~15k, that should be interesting, as its a long backlog.

Index Pop 101 in action.

Funny how when all the virtues of the NZX50 inclusion were being actively promoted, the full dynamics of an index pop were left out. Either by ignorance or design.

[BlackPeter]

Good question. Once upon a time I had an Iress & Bloomberg terminal where you could see what brokers the volume was coming from (via insto or retail) but no longer. But we can infer it by looking at the register.

HLG as retail as they come. Tim Glasson the only substantial shareholder with a 20% stake and no SSH notice from him so he is off the table. There are no other substantial shareholders so unless a pre-existing large but non-substantial shareholder was buying (unlikely) we shouldn't expect to see any SSH notices. We haven't seen any mgmt. or director notices either (what a look that would be!)

The ACC holds 3.38%, the Hickman's at 1.79%, and then a slew of broker retail nominee co's, plus a few HNW holding vehicles. Tracing through some of the nominees the only insto we can see is Dimensional Fund Advisers out of the USA who hold less than 1%.

I think we can safely assume all the broker nominee co's hold on behalf of retail (whether on full authority, discretionary or otherwise). HLG has got a really long tail of small and medium retail holders holding in their own right.

In the year leading up to the announcement of HLG's inclusion it had average daily volume of ~15.3k shares per day. Post that day I estimate an incremental ~2.7m shares were purchased, with 1.5m for the index inclusion and 1.2m speculating on gains from the inclusion. To put it in proportion, the level of excess volume equated to 4.5% of outstanding shares.

We'll never know exactly where the volume for this came from but I'd wager price signals sent from the rising buy demand were enough to elicit sell downs from individual holders. Retail headwinds are high and the whole sector (including best of breeds in Australia) are being negatively downrated with their own SP's falling and holders would be reactive to rising prices in that environment.

There is also good broker led retail custodianship of HLG shares with all the usual broker custodian names held in the top 20. The broker would have discretion in a good deal of these underlying interests and I also reckon they sold some down to meet demand.

I thought one broker was uncharacteristically harsh of HLG's inclusion to the NZX50: "a sad day with the delisting of growth stock Pushpay which will contribute to the ongoing shrinking of the NZ Stock Exchange. Equally as sad is the inclusion of trusty old Hallenstein Glasson's into the NZX50 as its replacement - illustrating the extraordinary lack of depth in the NZ stock market." I can imagine how they would direct their discretionary positions.

There may have been some spec buying in the lead up to the NZX50 announcement after people initially read the Forbar research but trading patterns from the date of that report to when the stock went up suggest if there was any it was very 2 bit in nature. So the demand wasn't satisfied by the incremental purchases after reading Forbar research, but existing holders making incremental spec purchases very well may have sold down into the inclusion (but still likely small beans).

What's more of interest is what happens to the 1.2m of shares that look to have been purchased with speculative intent. By all accounts the index pop looks to be disappointing and the SP has been steadily trending down post inclusion. These sort of buyers don't scream committed long term holder (of whom they displaced) and with the SP now in steady decline suggest a potential large uncommitted overhang wanting to get out if gains can't be secured. But with normal average daily volume of ~15k, that should be interesting, as its a long backlog.

Index Pop 101 in action.

Funny how when all the virtues of the NZX50 inclusion were being actively promoted, the full dynamics of an index pop were left out. Either by ignorance or design.

Good post ... but lets not forget, there is as well a NZX small caps index, which is holding all the stocks outside of the NZX50. That's the method of the index funds to make sure they don't get taken over a barrel when stocks move in or out of indices.

NZX small caps sells to NZX 50. Easy transaction, plenty of liquidity, no need for anyone to make a difficult buy or sell decision - job done.

[winner69]

FM ……any estimate where it might bottom out?

[Muse]

I’ve got no idea

And also good point BP - though I'm not sure shares held via the smallcap index ETFs would be enough to roll over into the nzx50 index trackers

[Balance]

The point to note is that HLG was trading around $5.40 at very small volumes YTD before the NZX50 speculation started to emerge in April.

$5.40 to $6.85 is a 27% increase which puts the effect of the indexing in perspective.

[winner69]

The point to note is that HLG was trading around $5.40 at very small volumes YTD before the NZX50 speculation started to emerge in April.

$5.40 to $6.85 is a 27% increase which puts the effect of the indexing in perspective.

So $5.40 here we come …….or as downtrends overshoot maybe as low as $5.00

No news coming from company until August to cheer punters up

[Snoopy]

In the year leading up to the announcement of HLG's inclusion it had average daily volume of ~15.3k shares per day. Post that day I estimate an incremental ~2.7m shares were purchased, with 1.5m for the index inclusion and 1.2m speculating on gains from the inclusion. To put it in proportion, the level of excess volume equated to 4.5% of outstanding shares.

There may have been some spec buying in the lead up to the NZX50 announcement after people initially read the Forbar research but trading patterns from the date of that report to when the stock went up suggest if there was any it was very 2 bit in nature. So the demand wasn't satisfied by the incremental purchases after reading Forbar research, but existing holders making incremental spec purchases very well may have sold down into the inclusion (but still likely small beans).

What's more of interest is what happens to the 1.2m of shares that look to have been purchased with speculative intent. By all accounts the index pop looks to be disappointing and the SP has been steadily trending down post inclusion. These sort of buyers don't scream committed long term holder (of whom they displaced) and with the SP now in steady decline suggest a potential large uncommitted overhang wanting to get out if gains can't be secured.


FM, I am first to admit that I don't possess the psychology to do short term trading. But you estimate an extra 2.7m shares were traded above normal volume, whereas only 1.5m needed to be traded for index inclusion purposes. Isn't it likely that some of those 'excess' 1.2m shares traded were traded twice, maybe even on the same day? There were some quite hefty daily price movements. So isn't it likely that some HLG shares were bought by the speculators early, then sold to the fund managers later that day, or a day later? Those quite substantial daily price movements may have captured the attention of day traders. And with HLG being outside the top 50 before entry, coupled with poor liquidity, that would suggest there were not that many algorithmic programs out there trading without a human finger on the buy button. IOW, the old fashioned situation of 'people selling to people' would not be an unrealistic view of what happened in this instance? That could mean those uncommitted holders of 1.2m shares have already left the share register.

SNOOPY

[alokdhir]

Legend is not only the one who can predict a future price rise but also the one who can advise on how fleeting it can be !!

If price of $ 6.85 was so short lived then getting off the boat wud have been a great option ...Bull actually did it right but many Gurus were justifying SP of $ 7.50+ thus confusing many into not offloading at great time ...reminds me of MEL / CEN opportunity in early Jan 2021 ....

[Rawz]

Legend is not only the one who can predict a future price rise but also the one who can advise on how fleeting it can be !!

If price of $ 6.85 was so short lived then getting off the boat wud have been a great option ...Bull actually did it right but many Gurus were justifying SP of $ 7.50+ thus confusing many into not offloading at great time ...reminds me of MEL / CEN opportunity in early Jan 2021 ....

No one can predict future price mate. Perhaps future value but what the price does is another story

[dreamcatcher]

This morning 9 people selling 3813 moved the SP 24c add another 4764 then would have moved SP to $5.50 .............easy-come-easy-go eh

[alokdhir]

Maybe moving towards real intrinsic worth or value after inclusion pop opportunity gone ...

W69 looking for $ 5 ...when yield support kicks in again ...

[Snoopy]

Legend is not only the one who can predict a future price rise but also the one who can advise on how fleeting it can be !!

If price of $ 6.85 was so short lived then getting off the boat wud have been a great option ...Bull actually did it right


This is what I meant when I said I don't have the trading psychology. I can use trading rules to justify my entry. But when those same parameters that I reacted to on the buy side tell me to sell, I don't listen.



but many Gurus were justifying SP of $ 7.50+ thus confusing many into not offloading at great time ...reminds me of MEL / CEN opportunity in early Jan 2021 ....


There is one big difference though. In that heady Jan 2021 time, almost every share in my portfolio, and indeed on the NZX, looked overvalued. So selling one overvalued share to buy another wouldn't have necessarily made me better off. Very different now, where there are at least 'pockets of value' out there.

SNOOPY

[BlackPeter]

Legend is not only the one who can predict a future price rise but also the one who can advise on how fleeting it can be !!

If price of $ 6.85 was so short lived then getting off the boat wud have been a great option ...Bull actually did it right but many Gurus were justifying SP of $ 7.50+ thus confusing many into not offloading at great time ...reminds me of MEL / CEN opportunity in early Jan 2021 ....

I don't think you should assume that ANYBODY is able to predict the future prices of stocks, and lets face it - legends around here are just posters with a certain number of posts, no matter whether they have been useful and / or sensible, or not.

Nobody can predict future stock prices or anything else in a grade 2 chaotic system where the knowledge of the system changes the behaviour of the participants ...

So - I guess, it is good that this (and other) forums gave early warning of the index change .... and all kudos to the posters who did this.

Based on this knowledge could anybody who wished to, determine how much the share is worth to them, i.e. when they want to buy and when they want to sell.

Trying to predict the height of any future SP peak is as sensible as trying to predict the next throw of the dice if you play Monopoly with your friends. For any individual dice you will have a 16.7% chance to get it right, and a 83.3% chance to get it wrong.

So - don't complain about the so called gurus who might have got it right or wrong ... ask yourself what you can do to better understand the non predictability of chaotic systems. Trusting other posters is anyway a risky enterprise, but believing in and relying on any future stock values they might throw around would be beyond believe ...

Ah yes ... and to value HLG currently around $7.50 ... I guess it would take pretty brave assumptions about future earnings and growth potential to justify that, but sure - anybody's guess is as good as yours, and nobody can predict what hype might do to a share price. The golden rule for working assumptions is however - never trust an assumption you didn't work out yourself and / or fully understand and agree with :) :

[alokdhir]

I don't think you should assume that ANYBODY is able to predict the future prices of stocks, and lets face it - legends around here are just posters with a certain number of posts, no matter whether they have been useful and / or sensible, or not.

Nobody can predict future stock prices or anything else in a grade 2 chaotic system where the knowledge of the system changes the behaviour of the participants ...

So - I guess, it is good that this (and other) forums gave early warning of the index change .... and all kudos to the posters who did this.

Based on this knowledge could anybody who wished to determine how much the share is worth to them, i.e. when they want to buy and when they want to sell.

Trying to predict the height of any future peak is as sensible as trying to predict the next throw of the dice if you play Monopoly with your friends. For any individual dice you will have a 16.7% chance to get it right, and a 83.3% chance to get it wrong.

So - don't complain about the so called gurus who might have got it right or wrong ... ask yourself what you can do to better understand the non predictability of chaotic systems. Trusting other posters is anyway a risky enterprise, but believing in and relying on any future stock values they might throw around would be beyond believe ...

Ah yes ... and to value HLG currently around $7.50 ... I guess it would take pretty brave assumptions about future earnings and growth potential to justify that, but sure - anybody's guess is as good as yours :) - the thing with working assumptions is however - never trust an assumption you didn't work out yourself :) :

No need for me to say anything ...U have said it all mate ...

PS : What gave u the idea I was complaining ....I was just observing for all including myself how it works here and maybe everywhere ...and also defining my " Legends "

[winner69]

I don't think you should assume that ANYBODY is able to predict the future prices of stocks, and lets face it - legends around here are just posters with a certain number of posts, no matter whether they have been useful and / or sensible, or not.

Nobody can predict future stock prices or anything else in a grade 2 chaotic system where the knowledge of the system changes the behaviour of the participants ...

So - I guess, it is good that this (and other) forums gave early warning of the index change .... and all kudos to the posters who did this.

Based on this knowledge could anybody who wished to, determine how much the share is worth to them, i.e. when they want to buy and when they want to sell.

Trying to predict the height of any future SP peak is as sensible as trying to predict the next throw of the dice if you play Monopoly with your friends. For any individual dice you will have a 16.7% chance to get it right, and a 83.3% chance to get it wrong.

So - don't complain about the so called gurus who might have got it right or wrong ... ask yourself what you can do to better understand the non predictability of chaotic systems. Trusting other posters is anyway a risky enterprise, but believing in and relying on any future stock values they might throw around would be beyond believe ...

Ah yes ... and to value HLG currently around $7.50 ... I guess it would take pretty brave assumptions about future earnings and growth potential to justify that, but sure - anybody's guess is as good as yours, and nobody can predict what hype might do to a share price. The golden rule for working assumptions is however - never trust an assumption you didn't work out yourself and / or fully understand and agree with :) :

Are you saying you ‘think’ (not predict) the HLG share price will fall to something like $4.50?

[BlackPeter]

Are you saying you ‘think’ (not predict) the HLG share price will fall to something like $4.50?

No - I didn't say that, didn't I? - and as anybody else, I have no clue what the future might bring.

What I do know is that share clarity has them currently at a DCF value of $6.74. Having said that, they (share clarity) are in my experience not better in predicting anything than a blindfolded gorilla might be in hitting the eye of an dartboard from 10 m distance.

What I do know as well is that if I extrapolate their (HLG's) earnings history without any assumptions about a coming recession and how this might impact on buyers or an unexpected black or golden swan event, my ignorant spread sheet algorithm reaches a forward PE of 10.2 for them - which might indicate that they are currently (for a retailer) fairly valued. Some people might call that however already too dear for a retailer (well, any other retailer than HLG) :) ):

However - I have not yet anything useful to model future hype waves ... so - anything could happen.

What I can tell you is that they currently don't look tempting enough for me. These shares look always much better when everybody starts to down ramp them. The key here is patience.

[dreamcatcher]

The 80k surge in net migration UBS expecting for 2023 bound to help retail .......

[nztx]

Did someone pull a ripcord somewhere or wasn't Robbo's size in stock ? ;)

[winner69]

The 80k surge in net migration UBS expecting for 2023 bound to help retail .......

Some say 100,000

[BlackPeter]

The 80k surge in net migration UBS expecting for 2023 bound to help retail .......

Probably not just retail ... think bigger!

[bull....]

The 80k surge in net migration UBS expecting for 2023 bound to help retail .......

some might even be from the sweatshops ?

[dreamcatcher]

Probably not just retail ... think bigger!

Off course BP but left that for people to think of others.......

[dreamcatcher]

some might even be from the sweatshops ?

Recall reading awhile back bulk are Kiws's returning then Indian and Chinese

[alokdhir]

People or holders have taken W69's assessment of it reaching $ 5 soon very seriously ...All trying to get out sooner then others now !!

[nztx]

Good grief $5.86 (delayed) now .. the guts really seems like it's falling out ..

[bull....]

Good grief $5.86 (delayed) now .. the guts really seems like it's falling out ..

must be all those people who thought it was going to 7.50 ?

[winner69]

must be all those people who thought it was going to 7.50 ?

Just as well only tiny %age of Index ….else could cause the NZX50 to collapse and

[bull....]

Just as well only tiny %age of Index ….else could cause the NZX50 to collapse and

i guess if it gets removed from the index one day ( i think its been in and out before ? ) would that mean a big drop before it falls out ?

[winner69]

i guess if it gets removed from the index one day ( i think its been in and out before ? ) would that mean a big drop before it falls out ?

March 2014 PEB kicked HLG out of NZX50 …..winners replace losers eh

Didn’t seem to damage share price much at the time ……was just over 3 bucks at the time

[nztx]

must be all those people who thought it was going to 7.50 ?


It was $10 wasn't it ? :)

If they add a few imputational credits .. it could be darn good investment (under the radar)

[percy]

must be all those people who thought it was going to 7.50 ?

I thought it would go to $8.00 and was thinking oft selling out at $7.45.
Was not bothered whether I sold or not.

[Baa_Baa]

I thought it would go to $8.00 and was thinking oft selling out at $7.45.
Was not bothered whether I sold or not.

I really thought it might finally breakout up above its very long term channel, but no, it seems the traders were all over this like a rash, and made some dosh. Good on them, it all happened in just a few days, and now fallen away back to it's low volume volatility as profits have been taken. The mysterious market never seems to amaze as it turns up unexpected outcomes.

https://invst.ly/102zdi enjoy.

[sb9]

What a roller coaster ride over past week or so.

[winner69]

I really thought it might finally breakout up above its very long term channel, but no, it seems the traders were all over this like a rash, and made some dosh. Good on them, it all happened in just a few days, and now fallen away back to it's low volume volatility as profits have been taken. The mysterious market never seems to amaze as it turns up unexpected outcomes.

https://invst.ly/102zdi enjoy.


Nice chart but hope share price doesn’t fall back to that green lower channel line…..about $3

But as you say the mysterious market does turn up unexpected outcomes

[alokdhir]

Legend on the other site is complaining about the negative posts here leading to scaring people to sell out thus causing big price slide

Maybe W69's $ 5 overshoot comment made him upset !!!

But when he was posting $ 9 as fair value of FPH then was ok ...but when someone here thinks $ 5 possible is not fair game ...lol :D