HLG - Hallenstein Glasson

[bull....]

Nice chart but hope share price doesn’t fall back to that green lower channel line…..about $3

But as you say the mysterious market does turn up unexpected outcomes

wouldnt surprise me if it goes to $3 some day as that is the historical trading range that is 3 odd to 5.80 odd so based on that is must be expensive at the moment

[see weed]

wouldnt surprise me if it goes to $3 some day as that is the historical trading range that is 3 odd to 5.80 odd so based on that is must be expensive at the moment
Well the sooner it gets back to there the better, whether it is 4.93, 5.10 or 5.30 who cares. I want to start buying back in for the next div at 8.28% yld. or maybe 5.60:t_up:

[Perky]

Yeah the same legend was convinced that the peacocks that buy glassons are immune to spending slowdowns.

well it appears the peacocks are back in the pen.

From todays smh

Australians under the age of 35 are feeling the heat from rising living costs the most, forcing them to cut back on discretionary spending as many older consumers keep shopping, new data shows.
The Commbank iQ Cost of Living Insights report released on Wednesday crunched data from 7 million Commonwealth Bank customers. It reveals consumers in their early 30s are under the most financial pressure as inflation and interest rates continue to rise.

shows that year-on-year spending for people aged under 35 increased by just 3.4 per cent between the first quarter of 2022 and the first quarter of 2023 – below the inflation figure of 7 per cent.
Under 35s cut their spending on clothing, shoes and accessories by 8.4 per cent in the first quarter of 2023, while expenditure on retail services, such as haircuts and beauty treatments, dropped by 0.6 per cent.


Over the same time period, consumers aged over 35 increased their apparel spending by 3.5 per cent, while their retail services spending jumped by 9.7 per cent.
Consumers aged older than 55 also posted year-on-year increases in their overall spending of 7.7 per cent, tracking above inflation.


link to article here but you may need to sign in to read

https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/thirty-somethings-feeling-cost-of-living-crunch-more-than-older-australians-20230516-p5d8np.html?utm_content=top_stories&list_name=2031_smh_busnews_am&promote_channel=edmail&utm_campaign=business-am&utm_medium=email&utm_source=newsletter&utm_term=2023-05-17&mbnr=MzA1ODEzNDY&instance=2023-05-17-07-20-AEST&jobid=29651176

[see weed]

So is that it. Are we there yet. Someone is having a little nibble. 5.80 the new low?

[Waltzing]

hoping for mid to high 4's...

now (pass the Tui) but high inflation might have a while to run for say the next 12 to 16 months ... 2025 before winds abate...

last time a dire warning was issued by brokers the stock sold off rapidly... notice the highs never last long.... next reporting will be interesting.

[Balance]

There is an excellent valuable lesson to be learnt from the HLG indexing share price action in the last few weeks.

Live and learn, or live in ignorant bliss.

Your choice.

[BlackPeter]

There is an excellent valuable lesson to be learnt from the HLG indexing share price action in the last few weeks.

Live and learn, or live in ignorant bliss.

Your choice.

Well, yes - just another opportunity to learn ... however I am sure next time an index change comes around everything will be forgotten and the usual suspects will just keep doing what they always used to do - pumping the hype and (presumably) milking the less experienced punters.

Some things just don't change ...

[alokdhir]

Well, yes - just another opportunity to learn ... however I am sure next time an index change comes around everything will be forgotten and the usual suspects will just keep doing what always used to do - pumping the hype and (presumably) milking the less experienced punters.

Some things just don't change ...

:t_up::t_up::t_up:

[Balance]

Well, yes - just another opportunity to learn ... however I am sure next time an index change comes around everything will be forgotten and the usual suspects will just keep doing what they always used to do - pumping the hype and (presumably) milking the less experienced punters.

Some things just don't change ...

Indeed!

Fools remain fools if they do not learn.

MFB anyone?

[Habits]

A good bounce up to 6.05, instos still buying and little on offer.

[see weed]

I did an experiment this morning. Bought 3000 and sold 5000. Have worked out there is probably a lot of depth manipulation going on. It has been happening to me a lot in the last year or so. eg there will be an order sitting there for a while either buying or selling and it could be sitting there for 30min or an hour it doesn't matter, every time I amend my order I get the feeling someone is watching and quickly put there order ahead of mine. It has happen to me too many times to be a coincidence.:t_down: It has happened to me at least 6 times today and that is one of the reasons why I will give up share trading in the future at some stage. If someone on the inside can see your order coming through and quickly change theirs, then that is not good.

[BlackPeter]

A good bounce up to 6.05, instos still buying and little on offer.

Would you like to elaborate how you know that insto's are "still buying"?

Do you have any evidence for this claim or did you make it up?

[alokdhir]

I did an experiment this morning. Bought 3000 and sold 5000. Have worked out there is probably a lot of depth manipulation going on. It has been happening to me a lot in the last year or so. eg there will be an order sitting there for a while either buying or selling and it could be sitting there for 30min or an hour it doesn't matter, every time I amend my order I get the feeling someone is watching and quickly put there order ahead of mine. It has happen to me too many times to be a coincidence.:t_down:

Trading BOTs at broker terminals ...they react much faster then retail orders thru online brokers ...its always the case in illiquid stocks ...its called spread capture ...

[winner69]

Always good to see Directors buying (even if it is through a share club but they must have said it’s a good buy

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/HLG/411583/394524.pdf

[Habits]

Would you like to elaborate how you know that insto's are "still buying"?

Do you have any evidence for this claim or did you make it up?

It stands to reason.

When there is a minor quantity being bid like 20 shares, at or below market and you have a much larger quantity youre selling like 10,000 at the last sale price. Then your holding gets gobbled up.

Brokers don't seem to disclose the true number on the depth page, its just a standing order.

Did my post upset you in some way BP. I'm pleased to be able to explain it to you

[BlackPeter]

I did an experiment this morning. Bought 3000 and sold 5000. Have worked out there is probably a lot of depth manipulation going on. It has been happening to me a lot in the last year or so. eg there will be an order sitting there for a while either buying or selling and it could be sitting there for 30min or an hour it doesn't matter, every time I amend my order I get the feeling someone is watching and quickly put there order ahead of mine. It has happen to me too many times to be a coincidence.:t_down:

You sound like a true investor ... :) - just hope you didn't sell and buy at the same time - some people might call that market manipulation :scared: ;

Anyway - if you are saying the brokers or the stock exchange are manipulating the market, than this would be a case for the SFO. This would be a clear breach of their legal requirements. Is this what you are saying?

[BlackPeter]

It stands to reason.

When there is a minor quantity being bid like 20 shares, at or below market and you have a much larger quantity youre selling like 10,000 at the last sale price. Then your holding gets gobbled up.

Brokers don't seem to disclose the true number on the depth page, its just a standing order.

Did my post upset you in some way BP. I'm pleased to be able to explain it to you

Look - I am just tired of speculations about market manipulations as well as institutional buying or selling without any evidence. Not quite sure what your example is supposed to prove ... and the numbers involved clearly don't point to institutions - I recon most of the investors here would order or sell a handful of 10000 shares at a time. Keeps the brokerage low.

Constant undermining of our systems helps nobody - and formulating what you maybe hope for "institutional buying" as a fact does not help either.

It is a well known fact that the depth does not contain all bids and offers, and to be fair - it can't. It is provided by the stock exchange, it always has some time delay (even if you pay for getting the data "without delay") and it contains obviously only the bids and offers the stock exchange knows about at the last time they sampled the depth. Brokers are allowed to hold back offers and bids which at current market price would not be successful - and they are as well allowed to sell and buy from one of their customers to one other of their customer without involving the stock exchange ... in which case these numbers only appear later in the depth of the stock exchange.

So - what exactly does you example prove?

[winner69]

Jeez, instos getting interested in HLG

Not always a good thing though

[see weed]

Look - I am just tired of speculations about market manipulations as well as institutional buying or selling without any evidence. Not quite sure what your example is supposed to prove ... and the numbers involved clearly don't point to institutions - I recon most of the investors here would order or sell a handful of 10000 shares at a time. Keeps the brokerage low.

Constant undermining of our systems helps nobody - and formulating what you maybe hope for "institutional buying" as a fact does not help either.

It is a well known fact that the depth does not contain all bids and offers, and to be fair - it can't. It is provided by the stock exchange, it always has some time delay (even if you pay for getting the data "without delay") and it contains obviously only the bids and offers the stock exchange knows about at the last time they sampled the depth. Brokers are allowed to hold back offers and bids which at current market price would not be successful - and they are as well allowed to sell and buy from one of their customers to one other of their customer without involving the stock exchange ... in which case these numbers only appear later in the depth of the stock exchange.

So - what exactly does you example prove?
Thank you. So what you are saying is the depth I am looking at is not always the true depth of shares being bought and sold.

[nztx]

Jeez, instos getting interested in HLG

Not always a good thing though


must be getting interested .. back up six dollar :)

[BlackPeter]

Thank you. So what you are saying is the depth I am looking at is not always the true depth of shares being bought and sold.

If you are talking about the numbers the NZX (or other stock exchanges) try to provide in real time, this would be correct. Many shares are e.g. just traded internally at some brokers place - i.e. NZX can't possibly know about them before trading ... and they will never appear in their depth (not even historically) unless the trades are closed and later reported to the stock exchange.

If you are talking about the historic depth (i.e. shares traded yesterday or earlier), I would think that the latter number (of shares actually changing hands) would be accurate, because all trades (or ownership changes) will be reported to the stock exchange - just not in real time.

[Sideshow Bob]

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/411688

Resignation of Group Chief Executive Officer
The Company advises the resignation of Group CEO Stuart Duncan, effective 17th November 2023.
Chairman of Directors Warren Bell said that the Company acknowledges the contribution Stuart has made to the Group and in particular his stewardship over the very challenging period dealing with the impact of Covid. Mr Duncan takes up a new role in late November and we wish him success in his new endeavors.
The Board will commence a search for a replacement.

Warren Bell
Chairman

[Muse]

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/411688

Resignation of Group Chief Executive Officer
The Company advises the resignation of Group CEO Stuart Duncan, effective 17th November 2023.
Chairman of Directors Warren Bell said that the Company acknowledges the contribution Stuart has made to the Group and in particular his stewardship over the very challenging period dealing with the impact of Covid. Mr Duncan takes up a new role in late November and we wish him success in his new endeavors.
The Board will commence a search for a replacement.

Warren Bell
Chairman

Huge loss for the company...Stuart was well regarded.

[winner69]

Huge loss for the company...Stuart was well regarded.

Wonder where the grass is greener

[Muse]

Universal Store - probably the best ASX listed comparable to HLG - today announced a FY23 profit update that was below 13% consensus EBIT. Similar fast fashion segment and age profile but with a greater proportion of menswear.

They noted:
"More recently, trading conditions observed throughout April and May to date have further tightened indicating that some customers are reducing their spending. The Group expects this subdued environment to continue for the balance of FY23 and into FY24."

The SP down 25% from yesterday, which before today was down 22% from its 12 month high in January.

[Muse]

Wonder where the grass is greener

dunno but he didn't appear keen to engage with the NBR in today's article
https://www.nbr.co.nz/the-flip-side/fast-fashion-needs-freezing-out-by-ethical-investors/

probably two sides to this story but only one was told

[percy]

Universal Store - probably the best ASX listed comparable to HLG - today announced a FY23 profit update that was below 13% consensus EBIT. Similar fast fashion segment and age profile but with a greater proportion of menswear.

They noted:
"More recently, trading conditions observed throughout April and May to date have further tightened indicating that some customers are reducing their spending. The Group expects this subdued environment to continue for the balance of FY23 and into FY24."

The SP down 25% from yesterday, which before today was down 22% from its 12 month high in January.
I read UNI's announcement and was surprised their sp fell so much.
I note UNI is trading on a PE of 8.95 and a yield of 7.78%.Looks good value to me.
Interesting to note HLG's PE is 10.45 and their yield is 7.93%.

[Muse]

I read UNI's announcement and was surprised their sp fell so much.
I note UNI is trading on a PE of 8.95 and a yield of 7.78%.Looks good value to me.
Interesting to note HLG's PE is 10.45 and their yield is 7.93%.

Those would have been based off pre downgrade earnings would imagine consensus falls. I think its been the speed of the deterioration since the last update that has alarmed some. Not sure the 25% drop warranted thats a huge drop for one day off a base that had already started pricing in headwinds

[bull....]

ccx ( apparel for + size ) in aus two reported 2 days ago there sales dropped off a cliff too last 2 mths

[Valuegrowth]

No company can maintain rising profits and growth almost every quarter. By Looking at five year revenue and earnings can get better idea than by looking at one quarter revenue and earnings. Future earnigns are more important than current earnings and past earnings. They can carry out their business as long as they manage their debt prudently, generate cash flow and maintain a healthy balance sheet

[Baa_Baa]

They can carry out their business as long as they manage their debt prudently, generate cash flow and maintain a healthy balance sheet

It's like you're quoting from a text book, maybe you are, but text books are absolute, they have no context to current economy.

No they can't 'generate cashflow', if their customers dry up and/or close their wallets.

All signs are pointing towards significantly lower number of discretionary buyers and therefore revenue, and this could go on for a long time.

It would be a very brave investor to take or hold a position in discretionary retail when the economy is diving into a recession, with rising costs, and medium/longer term lower income.

[alokdhir]

Universal Store - probably the best ASX listed comparable to HLG - today announced a FY23 profit update that was below 13% consensus EBIT. Similar fast fashion segment and age profile but with a greater proportion of menswear.

They noted:
"More recently, trading conditions observed throughout April and May to date have further tightened indicating that some customers are reducing their spending. The Group expects this subdued environment to continue for the balance of FY23 and into FY24."

The SP down 25% from yesterday, which before today was down 22% from its 12 month high in January.

Finally the retail being effected by impending slowdown ...means they started feeling insecure ...final hurdle of inflation control being crossed ...RBNZ acknowledged that yesterday ...maybe in next 6 months lots will change

Your prognosis about retail stocks like HLG ....hold to see capital erode or exit for entry lower ? BGP has shown exiting and re entry maybe better option

[Valuegrowth]

Thank you so much Baa Baa for your valuable analysis. You are right. I was reading some books. I found future earnings are more important. Also a strong balance sheet, high ROE and low debt.
It's like you're quoting from a text book, maybe you are, but text books are absolute, they have no context to current economy.

No they can't 'generate cashflow', if their customers dry up and/or close their wallets.

All signs are pointing towards significantly lower number of discretionary buyers and therefore revenue, and this could go on for a long time.

It would be a very brave investor to take or hold a position in discretionary retail when the economy is diving into a recession, with rising costs, and medium/longer term lower income.

[Baa_Baa]

Thank you so much Baa Baa for your valuable analysis. You are right. I was reading some books. I found future earnings are more important. Also a strong balance sheet, high ROE and low debt.

You're welcome. HLG is a challenging share to own, it has high volatility and is cyclical, low trading volumes which means it's hard to sell or buy in quantity, but it pays a solid and so far reliable dividend. So the trade-off is whether it's better to trade HLG, or buy and hold HLG, or just don't do it at all.

My chart goes back to 2008, so let's have a look.

If you just bought and held HLG, you would have made about 6.8% capital gain (unrealised) and 15.7% pa dividends for total 22.5% pa total return (from Sharesight, past 15 years).

If you bought HLG and traded it at the highs and the lows, you'd be a genius trader, look how volatile it is over time https://invst.ly/106e4q and because we can't be certain about the timing of the trades, we can't calculate total return or whether it would be better than buy/hold.

So the thing is, buying and holding a high return share like HLG is obviously the lower risk strategy, than trading it, but because it is cyclical and so volatile, a buy and hold investor should be very keenly focused on 1. buying near the bottom of the cycle, and even more important, 2. have the stomach to not freak out and sell when the SP plunges back to it's slowly rising low trend price, which it will.

If you're into HLG, it looks better as a buy and hold share, assuming diamond hands, but arguably now is not a good time to buy as it's trading at high SP in the currently cycle.

[bull....]

another downgrade from aussie retailer today , adairs mainly furtniture , mocka in NZ but guess the point is there have been some noticeable drops in sales since april by a large number of aussie retailers lately all in the last 2 mths sales figures

[Muse]

Quite a massive minimum wage increase just announced in Australia from the fair work commission - 5.75% (for both the awards rate and minimum rate). Last year those workers on awards earning more than A$869 rec'd a 4.6% increase but those below earned an increase of A$40/wk, equating to a pay rise of 4.6% to 5.2%. Expectations earlier in the year ranged from 4-5% increase this year but started drifting up, and consensus seemed to be for a similar increase this year to last year. CBA noted a bigger increase would lead to further interest rate rises. Increase starts on 1 July.

That's a big additional pressure on overheads in an increasingly precarious operating environment. Wages a big expense, and across FY21 and FY22 averaged about 38.6% of HLG's total operating expenses, in 1H FY23 that rose to 40.3%. That's another big lift starting in HLG's FY24 financial year.

[Muse]

Yeah the same legend was convinced that the peacocks that buy glassons are immune to spending slowdowns.

well it appears the peacocks are back in the pen.

From todays smh

Australians under the age of 35 are feeling the heat from rising living costs the most, forcing them to cut back on discretionary spending as many older consumers keep shopping, new data shows.
The Commbank iQ Cost of Living Insights report released on Wednesday crunched data from 7 million Commonwealth Bank customers. It reveals consumers in their early 30s are under the most financial pressure as inflation and interest rates continue to rise.

shows that year-on-year spending for people aged under 35 increased by just 3.4 per cent between the first quarter of 2022 and the first quarter of 2023 – below the inflation figure of 7 per cent.
Under 35s cut their spending on clothing, shoes and accessories by 8.4 per cent in the first quarter of 2023, while expenditure on retail services, such as haircuts and beauty treatments, dropped by 0.6 per cent.


Over the same time period, consumers aged over 35 increased their apparel spending by 3.5 per cent, while their retail services spending jumped by 9.7 per cent.
Consumers aged older than 55 also posted year-on-year increases in their overall spending of 7.7 per cent, tracking above inflation.


link to article here but you may need to sign in to read

https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/thirty-somethings-feeling-cost-of-living-crunch-more-than-older-australians-20230516-p5d8np.html?utm_content=top_stories&list_name=2031_smh_busnews_am&promote_channel=edmail&utm_campaign=business-am&utm_medium=email&utm_source=newsletter&utm_term=2023-05-17&mbnr=MzA1ODEzNDY&instance=2023-05-17-07-20-AEST&jobid=29651176


The underlying report here, Perky, with page 6 the salient one w/ respect to HLG
https://www.commbank.com.au/content/dam/caas/newsroom/docs/CommBank%20iQ%20Cost%20of%20Living%20Report%20May% 202023.pdf

We often hear that Glasson AU customers are young and broadly don't have mortgages and therefore are immune to rising inflation, which I've regard as nearly as bogus to the thoroughly disproven claim that Noel Leeming, TP7, and Bluesheds are consumer staples and immune to the economic cycle.

Based Glassons AU website traffic data (from similarweb: https://www.similarweb.com/website/glassons.com/#traffic) we know that about 66% of those doing the online shopping (a decent proxy for customer age) are below 34%. But the CBA retail spending report shows that same age group up till March 2023 is experiencing the weakest spending across all age groups.

While those young Glasson customers don't have mortgages, they do have things like rent (according to W69 "up horrendously" at 8% run rate), utilities (gas up 26% and electricity up 15.5%), and they buy food (up 8%). That's a difficult pill to swallow when their wages are rising ~5%.
https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/economy/price-indexes-and-inflation/consumer-price-index-australia/latest-release

April spending data wasn't bad but there are plenty of anecdotes and data points pointing towards a rapid deceleration in May. Excess inventories and discounting are rising at the same time as rapidly rising overheads and falling same store volumes, and the NZ and AU pair rate relative to the USD are weak and will lock in future cost of goods. Retailers don't look able to pass on the full effect of rising prices either.

AU has a lot of positive things going for it and in particular immigration, but even adjusting for population growth, apparel volumes over the last 12 months (to 31 March 2023) have been 20.6% above pre covid trend. Good thing that things never revert to trend (or shoot below it during a correction).

14619

FY23 will most likely be a record year for HLG, driven by Glassons AU 1H in particular, in my opinion. But I continue to reckon AU hit peak retail in the first half of HLG's financial year, and is unlikely to be a maintainable result with FY24 and FY25 looking challenging. True people will point to graphs of increases in marketshare, but when you steadily grow at 3 net new stores PA, the year on year growth rates when you are starting with ~20 stores (around 5 years ago) vs. growing at the same 3 stores pa when you are at 40 (roughly now), slow and rapidly deminish. Revenue growth and marketshare gains from previous periods can only rapidly fall if the store expansion rate remains the same. The worry also becomes around the viability of new stores opened during peak trading conditions, as rents are generally high when signed, volumes per store at a maximum, and the economic case may not pan out through the cycle if the assumptions prove wrong (happening right now at the Warehouse's TP7 stores).

Glassons AU a very good company and better than most...Glassons NZ and Hallensteins struggling - net net a better retailer than most, but there are many headwinds and I just hope those who piled into HLG because of all the recent pumping can reset their expectations on what may come.

As always its critical to do your own research, read, research, and look around before you buy (or sell) anything. I'm afraid a lot of spec buyers got sucked into the hype of the NZX50 inclusion and are now more or less stuck there given liquidity constrains and SP expectations.

[bull....]

Quite a massive minimum wage increase just announced in Australia from the fair work commission - 5.75% (for both the awards rate and minimum rate). Last year those workers on awards earning more than A$869 rec'd a 4.6% increase but those below earned an increase of A$40/wk, equating to a pay rise of 4.6% to 5.2%. Expectations earlier in the year ranged from 4-5% increase this year but started drifting up, and consensus seemed to be for a similar increase this year to last year. CBA noted a bigger increase would lead to further interest rate rises. Increase starts on 1 July.

That's a big additional pressure on overheads in an increasingly precarious operating environment. Wages a big expense, and across FY21 and FY22 averaged about 38.6% of HLG's total operating expenses, in 1H FY23 that rose to 40.3%. That's another big lift starting in HLG's FY24 financial year.

yep hit coming to hlg profit margin i reckon too , wont be able to offset it

as a % of sales wages have continued to rise yr on yr could be a sharp increase next yr if sales fall

lovisa got savaged yesterday mainly because they are heavily effected by wage rise

[Rawz]

Holy heck FM that’s a great post and love that chart

[winner69]

Holy heck FM that’s a great post and love that chart


Hey Rawz .... jewellery sales chart looks like that as well

Just as well things don't revert to trend eh

[alokdhir]

yep hit coming to hlg profit margin i reckon too , wont be able to offset it

as a % of sales wages have continued to rise yr on yr could be a sharp increase next yr if sales fall

lovisa got savaged yesterday mainly because they are heavily effected by wage rise

So it wont be going over $ 7 as proclaimed by Gurus ...OMG thats a shame ...62 Cents EPS and $ 7.88 valuations gone in the wind ...:eek2:

[alokdhir]

Quite a massive minimum wage increase just announced in Australia from the fair work commission - 5.75% (for both the awards rate and minimum rate). Last year those workers on awards earning more than A$869 rec'd a 4.6% increase but those below earned an increase of A$40/wk, equating to a pay rise of 4.6% to 5.2%. Expectations earlier in the year ranged from 4-5% increase this year but started drifting up, and consensus seemed to be for a similar increase this year to last year. CBA noted a bigger increase would lead to further interest rate rises. Increase starts on 1 July.

That's a big additional pressure on overheads in an increasingly precarious operating environment. Wages a big expense, and across FY21 and FY22 averaged about 38.6% of HLG's total operating expenses, in 1H FY23 that rose to 40.3%. That's another big lift starting in HLG's FY24 financial year.

Your candid and impartial views on much cheered and played HLG are most refreshing and welcome ...hopefully many will appreciate what you also trying to do here ...hopefully your simple question to " Legend " will be answered honestly ...though I doubt it ...but we all know the answer ...:cool:

I did flag that issue at start but got bullied by followers ....

HLG will have double battle to fight ...wage bill increase + retail recession on horizon ....

Many will be looking for below $ 5 easily ...W69 / Bull's first low side target of $ 5 on cards some time ahead ....:eek2:

[Rawz]

Hey Rawz .... jewellery sales chart looks like that as well

Just as well things don't revert to trend eh
Yes same with a whole lot of other companies, even the greats like MFT. Lucky for MHJ they have bought some EPS via good capital allocation..

Might be able to pick up both MHJ and HLG really cheap soon :)

[alokdhir]

HLG to hit $7 today (surely)

:t_up::D:p

[BlackPeter]

So it wont be going over $ 7 as proclaimed by Gurus ...OMG thats a shame ...62 Cents EPS and $ 7.88 valuations gone in the wind ...:eek2:

Better learn to embrace uncertainty ... and learn that "gurus" predictions are not more worth than any other random prediction!

[Rawz]

:t_up::D:plol you are a donkey. The way it was going I think many honest posters were surprised it didn’t hit $7

Don’t make me go back to the MFT thread wasn’t too long ago you said it will go to $100. Since fell back heaps since you made that comment my friend

[alokdhir]

Better learn to embrace uncertainty ... and learn that "gurus" predictions are not more worth than any other random prediction!

Maybe I learnt that lesson long time back ...but reiterating again and again for all others to learn it forever ...so we dont get into asking difficult questions again and again to same Gurus ...

Some are comparing MFT at current levels with cyclical HLG at top of cycle ....dont know what to think of that ...maybe u will have better idea !!

[alokdhir]

lol you are a donkey. The way it was going I think many honest posters were surprised it didn’t hit $7

Don’t make me go back to the MFT thread wasn’t too long ago you said it will go to $100. Since fell back heaps since you made that comment my friend

Dont need to loose civility ...U can surely go back and show me when it was about to go ...but I never compared MFT at top of cycle to HLG / MHJ at bottom of cycle ...all stocks have different cycles ...all know ...which is better to get in at what time is for a " Guru " to know

[BlackPeter]

Some are comparing MFT at current levels with cyclical HLG at top of cycle ....dont know what to think of that ...maybe u will have better idea !!

Well, I would not know what others are thinking :) , but for me comparing HLG with MFT is like comparing one of these ferris wheels on the next A&P show with an Apollo rocket.

Here is a 20 year comparison of the two. The blue line (carefully look at the bottom to see it) is HLG and the red line is MFT (hardly to oversee in the top).

14621

Anyway - I guess its horses for courses ... if entertaining my grandchildren is the plan, than I probably prefer the ferris wheel :) :

[alokdhir]

Well, I would not know what others are thinking :) , but for me comparing HLG with MFT is like comparing one of these ferris wheels on the next A&P show with an Apollo rocket.

Here is a 20 year comparison of the two. The blue line (carefully look at the bottom to see it) is HLG and the red line is MFT (hardly to oversee in the top).

14621

Anyway - I guess its horses for courses ... if entertaining my grandchildren is the plan, than I probably prefer the ferris wheel :) :

Wow thats a very self explanatory chart ...maybe I shud develop more chart making skills as it explains the longer term pictures much better then words

I still get ridiculed trying to explain MFT class over HLG but u have done a wonderful job ....great work BP :t_up:

[Rawz]

Wow thats a very self explanatory chart ...maybe I shud develop more chart making skills as it explains the longer term pictures much better then words

I still get ridiculed trying to explain MFT class over HLG but u have done a wonderful job ....great work BP :t_up:

Nobody comparing HLG and MFT…. Lol

A comment only that MFT is falling back to TREND…

[alokdhir]

Nobody comparing HLG and MFT…. Lol

A comment only that MFT is falling back to TREND…

Thats why I suggested preferring buying MFT at current levels ...which is below its long term averages then HLG / TRA ..which are over their long term averages but many including u thought its not a good idea ...many cheer leaders were singing the Legend's tune that HLG etc will go much higher while ignoring the fact that its already over long term trend ...now the risks associated with it can materialise anytime ...and they did with what FM is posting ...wage pressures in difficult retail conditions ...MFT has come below its long term trend due to growth slowing ...which will effect retail sector too ...though with a lag ...So IMHO it was more safer to invest in already corrected blue chip then more risky retail flyers ....albeit good ones ...I do acknowledge HLG / TRA are good picks at right times

PS : Please recheck MFT charts mate ...it's not falling back to long term trend ....it's already below its long term averages and thus was the case when I made my preferences known here .

[Rawz]

Alokdhir… just wait mate, I’ve got another company that is risky but HUGE upside potential that I’ll be highlighting soon. Just need to finish buying. You’ll love it :)

[winner69]

Alokdhir ….fwiw I reckon long term trend would have MFT share price at about 50 bucks these days

[alokdhir]

Alokdhir… just wait mate, I’ve got another company that is risky but HUGE upside potential that I’ll be highlighting soon. Just need to finish buying. You’ll love it :)

Dont worry I wont call u " Donkey " even if fails to take off !! Good on u to buy first then highlight and sell when trend catches. ...u on right track mate ...thats how its done ...:cool:

[alokdhir]

Alokdhir ….fwiw I reckon long term trend would have MFT share price at about 50 bucks these days

Everyones idea of opportunity is different mate ....U want deeper value then U look for MFT at $ 50 while ok with HLG at $ 6.85 and TRA over $ 4 ....love your value judgement buddy

BTW how was your dinner with Gov. Gen ....Did merino keep u warm ? ...:p

[Rawz]

Dont worry I wont call u " Donkey " even if fails to take off !! Good on u to buy first then highlight and sell when trend catches. ...u on right track mate ...thats how its done ...:cool:

You can call me a donkey I don’t mind. They are very intelligent and deserve our respect :)

[alokdhir]

You can call me a donkey I don’t mind. They are very intelligent and deserve our respect :)

Deleted .....

[bull....]

So it wont be going over $ 7 as proclaimed by Gurus ...OMG thats a shame ...62 Cents EPS and $ 7.88 valuations gone in the wind ...:eek2:

lol the guru's have gone very quiet since index inclusion passed

[alokdhir]

lol the guru's have gone very quiet since index inclusion passed

After going thru the messages on other forum its become clearer and confirmed in my mind what transpired ....almost copy cat WHS pop !!!

Legends are only in our mind ....in reality they are also human ...

But its easy to fall for the ramping when first part of it comes true then most expect the second part also will happen ...alas !

Many on other side are justifying the ethics of it as " trading chance " ...DYOR stuff or what not ....

But to my simple and " Donkey " mind ...it's not good look ethically ....but then all can have different definitions of ethics too

U are always very forthright in your actions ...appreciate and respect that mate :t_up:

[percy]

After going thru the messages on other forum its become clearer and confirmed in my mind what transpired ....almost copy cat WHS pop !!!

Legends are only in our mind ....in reality they are also human ...

But its easy to fall for the ramping when first part of it comes true then most expect the second part also will happen ...alas !

Many on other side are justifying the ethics of it as " trading chance " ...DYOR stuff or what not ....

But to my simple and " Donkey " mind ...it's not good look ethically ....but then all can have different definitions of ethics too

U are always very forthright in your actions ...appreciate and respect that mate :t_up:
This was posted by Fiordland Moose here on 19-05-2023 on the thread Hotcopper guy gets jail sentence.
Trust FM does not mind me posting it.

The Internet has given investors many excellent sources for doing due diligence on the thousands of stocks available for purchase. But for many investors, finding trustworthy sources of information about a particular company can be challenging.

One source that many investors look to for reliable information on a company is the various stock discussion boards and forums. While some of these research sources can be helpful, many of these discussion boards and forums have dangerous elements to them.

Almost all stock forums contain slithery characters that have insidious hidden motives when posting their comments. Some of these forum posters are so clever at what they do, even the most sophisticated investor can make a bad buy or sell decision based on the poster’s deceiving posts on the forums. Recall that even the CEO of Whole Foods was caught posting in an insidious fashion on a company's stock forum.

One slimy character in particular to be vigilant of is the omnipresent stock ramper. S/he can be found on almost every discussion board / forum and too many times investors can make bad buy decisions by following the ramper’s misguided advice.

Remember, the anonymity of the Internet should make you skeptical of what anyone says if you don’t know who they are. Before making a buy or sell decision on a stock, make sure you are dealing with a reliable source. And if that source is an anonymous stock forum poster, that source is rarely reliable.

Here are 15 ways you can identify the stock discussion board ramper. I’ve seen the same behaviors in the stock rampers across many stock forums. Once you know the warning signs, you can learn to spot the ramper much more easily:

1. The rampers post exorbitant stock price predictions.
2. The rampers warn others they better get in now or else. Their "buy now" posts almost sound like threats.
3. They attack those who disagree with their lofty predictions. They cannot back up their arguments with a rational discussion, so they resort to petty name calling and telling others who disagree with them that they are "full of it."
4. They are not open minded. You cannot have an intelligent discussion with these types. They will do whatever they can to discredit those who disagree with them by spreading false information. They are very often antagonistic.
5. They post their predictions over and over and over desperately hoping to move the market. They never do, because what they say is insignificant to the market. That is because no one knows who they are (see below).
6. The rampers rarely (if ever) backs up their predictions with concrete, specific numbers - if they do, projected sales numbers are way beyond what the company, analysts, and industry insiders say is realistic. But somehow, according to them, even people in the company are overly PESSIMISTIC when it comes to their own sales projections.
7. They post anonymously - they are no-names in the financial world or the particular industry that the company is involved in. Credible people who make lofty stock price predictions will often post their real names – or link to articles they have published - so others can get a feel for their pedigree and can research their background. The vast majority of credible stock market heavyweights do not post in discussion forums. If they do, they usually tell people who they are and can prove it.
8. Oftentimes the rampers are hired by boiler room operations. Their pay grade is whatever you could imagine a company would pay someone to post on Internet forums – not much above minimum wage.
9. Rampers often talk of a fictitious track record in predictions - legends in their own mind. They rattle off all their past “accurate” predictions including that the sun was going to rise in the east today.
10. It is obvious that the rampers have an agenda on the discussion board. They are not objective about the financial environment, the company, management, etc. Their posts carry the same one-sided theme. Bad news is good news in reverse. Any good news (even modest good news) is an affirmation of how the stock is going to appreciate to incredible levels shortly.
11. They appear to be rabid on their support of the company – beyond a reasonable amount of enthusiasm, the ramper comes across as almost crazed in his/her excitement.
12. Rampers are egotistical, and it comes across in their posts. Anyone who does not agree with them is an “idiot,” even those who are esteemed in their respective field. They are not respectful of those who disagree with their predictions.
13. When the stock is on a run, the ramping intensifies – the stock is “going to the moon.” This, incidentally, is often a great time to sell the stock. Remember, no one every went broke taking profits.
14. When the stock is in a lull, the ramping may intensify in a desperate attempt to do a quick pump and dump scheme.
15. The ramper will unceremoniously dump the stock when their mission has been accomplished. Those remaining in the stock are now deemed to be “bagholders” by the pumper.

The rampers continue their agenda over and over. It happens on every stock discussion board – especially on penny stock boards, when pump and dump operators and boiler room operators feel they can have an impact on a thinly traded stock.

Fortunately, with practice, we can learn to spot the ramper once we know the red flags. With experience, you get an intuitive feel about various posters on the Internet – even with the anonymous nature of these stock forums.

Learn to spot the slithery ramper, and you'll be a better investor.
Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

[Fortunecookie]

This was posted by Fiordland Moose here on 19-05-2023 on the thread Hotcopper guy gets jail sentence.
Trust FM does not mind me posting it.

The Internet has given investors many excellent sources for doing due diligence on the thousands of stocks available for purchase. But for many investors, finding trustworthy sources of information about a particular company can be challenging.

One source that many investors look to for reliable information on a company is the various stock discussion boards and forums. While some of these research sources can be helpful, many of these discussion boards and forums have dangerous elements to them.

Almost all stock forums contain slithery characters that have insidious hidden motives when posting their comments. Some of these forum posters are so clever at what they do, even the most sophisticated investor can make a bad buy or sell decision based on the poster’s deceiving posts on the forums. Recall that even the CEO of Whole Foods was caught posting in an insidious fashion on a company's stock forum.

One slimy character in particular to be vigilant of is the omnipresent stock ramper. S/he can be found on almost every discussion board / forum and too many times investors can make bad buy decisions by following the ramper’s misguided advice.

Remember, the anonymity of the Internet should make you skeptical of what anyone says if you don’t know who they are. Before making a buy or sell decision on a stock, make sure you are dealing with a reliable source. And if that source is an anonymous stock forum poster, that source is rarely reliable.

Here are 15 ways you can identify the stock discussion board ramper. I’ve seen the same behaviors in the stock rampers across many stock forums. Once you know the warning signs, you can learn to spot the ramper much more easily:

1. The rampers post exorbitant stock price predictions.
2. The rampers warn others they better get in now or else. Their "buy now" posts almost sound like threats.
3. They attack those who disagree with their lofty predictions. They cannot back up their arguments with a rational discussion, so they resort to petty name calling and telling others who disagree with them that they are "full of it."
4. They are not open minded. You cannot have an intelligent discussion with these types. They will do whatever they can to discredit those who disagree with them by spreading false information. They are very often antagonistic.
5. They post their predictions over and over and over desperately hoping to move the market. They never do, because what they say is insignificant to the market. That is because no one knows who they are (see below).
6. The rampers rarely (if ever) backs up their predictions with concrete, specific numbers - if they do, projected sales numbers are way beyond what the company, analysts, and industry insiders say is realistic. But somehow, according to them, even people in the company are overly PESSIMISTIC when it comes to their own sales projections.
7. They post anonymously - they are no-names in the financial world or the particular industry that the company is involved in. Credible people who make lofty stock price predictions will often post their real names – or link to articles they have published - so others can get a feel for their pedigree and can research their background. The vast majority of credible stock market heavyweights do not post in discussion forums. If they do, they usually tell people who they are and can prove it.
8. Oftentimes the rampers are hired by boiler room operations. Their pay grade is whatever you could imagine a company would pay someone to post on Internet forums – not much above minimum wage.
9. Rampers often talk of a fictitious track record in predictions - legends in their own mind. They rattle off all their past “accurate” predictions including that the sun was going to rise in the east today.
10. It is obvious that the rampers have an agenda on the discussion board. They are not objective about the financial environment, the company, management, etc. Their posts carry the same one-sided theme. Bad news is good news in reverse. Any good news (even modest good news) is an affirmation of how the stock is going to appreciate to incredible levels shortly.
11. They appear to be rabid on their support of the company – beyond a reasonable amount of enthusiasm, the ramper comes across as almost crazed in his/her excitement.
12. Rampers are egotistical, and it comes across in their posts. Anyone who does not agree with them is an “idiot,” even those who are esteemed in their respective field. They are not respectful of those who disagree with their predictions.
13. When the stock is on a run, the ramping intensifies – the stock is “going to the moon.” This, incidentally, is often a great time to sell the stock. Remember, no one every went broke taking profits.
14. When the stock is in a lull, the ramping may intensify in a desperate attempt to do a quick pump and dump scheme.
15. The ramper will unceremoniously dump the stock when their mission has been accomplished. Those remaining in the stock are now deemed to be “bagholders” by the pumper.

The rampers continue their agenda over and over. It happens on every stock discussion board – especially on penny stock boards, when pump and dump operators and boiler room operators feel they can have an impact on a thinly traded stock.

Fortunately, with practice, we can learn to spot the ramper once we know the red flags. With experience, you get an intuitive feel about various posters on the Internet – even with the anonymous nature of these stock forums.

Learn to spot the slithery ramper, and you'll be a better investor.
Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

Good post Percy.

I like to think this counts me out as I have been negative on most post.

Playing devil's advocate. Is it upto the individual to decide which company to invest in. I think it is the very core of decision making that the person completes their own due diligence before investing in a company.
Anecdotally I have seen SP land at prices that were quoted on sites like Motley Fools. I can only assume certain investors don't bother to read the financials and weight their decisions according to what these sites recommend. If so you have to ask the question, what DD have these investors have done. I acknowledge what you are saying in that there will be posters that they will have their own agenda. But at the end of the day, a person has to decide if a company is worth investing in. If they decided to only go off what is stated on a public forum. Their decision making process has to be questioned.

Like I said it is good that you have raised this issue.

[alokdhir]

It may not take HLG two months to normalise ..just my opinion ...though its a retail stock for its stable dividend yield but normal vols are pretty low ...may improve a bit on its inclusion but still it can easily drift down on low vols easily ...

Most optimistic eps estimate of 62 cents ahead ...with retail recession around shud bring it to 5.50 easily . Bull wud be happy !!

Fun times maybe over for a time being imo ...look for Gurus cashing out if they haven't in yesterdays closing auction ...as was easy to sell in large volumes

Posted on 11th May ...Yes many cud not resist the temptation ...nothing wrong but not while advising others to hold on for much higher levels ....followers didnt even know what happened !!!

[alokdhir]

This was posted by Fiordland Moose here on 19-05-2023 on the thread Hotcopper guy gets jail sentence.
Trust FM does not mind me posting it.

The Internet has given investors many excellent sources for doing due diligence on the thousands of stocks available for purchase. But for many investors, finding trustworthy sources of information about a particular company can be challenging.

One source that many investors look to for reliable information on a company is the various stock discussion boards and forums. While some of these research sources can be helpful, many of these discussion boards and forums have dangerous elements to them.

Almost all stock forums contain slithery characters that have insidious hidden motives when posting their comments. Some of these forum posters are so clever at what they do, even the most sophisticated investor can make a bad buy or sell decision based on the poster’s deceiving posts on the forums. Recall that even the CEO of Whole Foods was caught posting in an insidious fashion on a company's stock forum.

One slimy character in particular to be vigilant of is the omnipresent stock ramper. S/he can be found on almost every discussion board / forum and too many times investors can make bad buy decisions by following the ramper’s misguided advice.

Remember, the anonymity of the Internet should make you skeptical of what anyone says if you don’t know who they are. Before making a buy or sell decision on a stock, make sure you are dealing with a reliable source. And if that source is an anonymous stock forum poster, that source is rarely reliable.

Here are 15 ways you can identify the stock discussion board ramper. I’ve seen the same behaviors in the stock rampers across many stock forums. Once you know the warning signs, you can learn to spot the ramper much more easily:

1. The rampers post exorbitant stock price predictions.
2. The rampers warn others they better get in now or else. Their "buy now" posts almost sound like threats.
3. They attack those who disagree with their lofty predictions. They cannot back up their arguments with a rational discussion, so they resort to petty name calling and telling others who disagree with them that they are "full of it."
4. They are not open minded. You cannot have an intelligent discussion with these types. They will do whatever they can to discredit those who disagree with them by spreading false information. They are very often antagonistic.
5. They post their predictions over and over and over desperately hoping to move the market. They never do, because what they say is insignificant to the market. That is because no one knows who they are (see below).
6. The rampers rarely (if ever) backs up their predictions with concrete, specific numbers - if they do, projected sales numbers are way beyond what the company, analysts, and industry insiders say is realistic. But somehow, according to them, even people in the company are overly PESSIMISTIC when it comes to their own sales projections.
7. They post anonymously - they are no-names in the financial world or the particular industry that the company is involved in. Credible people who make lofty stock price predictions will often post their real names – or link to articles they have published - so others can get a feel for their pedigree and can research their background. The vast majority of credible stock market heavyweights do not post in discussion forums. If they do, they usually tell people who they are and can prove it.
8. Oftentimes the rampers are hired by boiler room operations. Their pay grade is whatever you could imagine a company would pay someone to post on Internet forums – not much above minimum wage.
9. Rampers often talk of a fictitious track record in predictions - legends in their own mind. They rattle off all their past “accurate” predictions including that the sun was going to rise in the east today.
10. It is obvious that the rampers have an agenda on the discussion board. They are not objective about the financial environment, the company, management, etc. Their posts carry the same one-sided theme. Bad news is good news in reverse. Any good news (even modest good news) is an affirmation of how the stock is going to appreciate to incredible levels shortly.
11. They appear to be rabid on their support of the company – beyond a reasonable amount of enthusiasm, the ramper comes across as almost crazed in his/her excitement.
12. Rampers are egotistical, and it comes across in their posts. Anyone who does not agree with them is an “idiot,” even those who are esteemed in their respective field. They are not respectful of those who disagree with their predictions.
13. When the stock is on a run, the ramping intensifies – the stock is “going to the moon.” This, incidentally, is often a great time to sell the stock. Remember, no one every went broke taking profits.
14. When the stock is in a lull, the ramping may intensify in a desperate attempt to do a quick pump and dump scheme.
15. The ramper will unceremoniously dump the stock when their mission has been accomplished. Those remaining in the stock are now deemed to be “bagholders” by the pumper.

The rampers continue their agenda over and over. It happens on every stock discussion board – especially on penny stock boards, when pump and dump operators and boiler room operators feel they can have an impact on a thinly traded stock.

Fortunately, with practice, we can learn to spot the ramper once we know the red flags. With experience, you get an intuitive feel about various posters on the Internet – even with the anonymous nature of these stock forums.

Learn to spot the slithery ramper, and you'll be a better investor.
Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

Great post and great timing ...very informative and spreading very rational awareness ....Need of the hour !!

PS : I also think they work in a group as many others come to the rescue of each other and make the poor challenger feel bad and go quiet ....

[bull....]

another aussie retailer just had a trading update baby bunting

The key Storktake promotional event, which has recently commenced, has seen trading both instores and online well below expectations during this short period. Since launch, sales have beenunprecedentedly low, with comparable store sales of around negative 21.0%. If this trendcontinues, the Company expects FY23 sales to be in range of $509 million to $513 million andcomparable store sales to be negative 4.0% to negative 5.0%

https://cloud.weblink.com.au/smallcaps/announcement.aspx?articleID=376820

things must be tough aus

[Muse]

another aussie retailer just had a trading update baby bunting

The key Storktake promotional event, which has recently commenced, has seen trading both instores and online well below expectations during this short period. Since launch, sales have beenunprecedentedly low, with comparable store sales of around negative 21.0%. If this trendcontinues, the Company expects FY23 sales to be in range of $509 million to $513 million andcomparable store sales to be negative 4.0% to negative 5.0%

https://cloud.weblink.com.au/smallcaps/announcement.aspx?articleID=376820

things must be tough aus

Those are horrifying same store sales figures but to be fair I reckon they have a lot of company specific issues. 1) given the rapidly evolving cost of living crisis in Australia over recent weeks & months (rent, utilities, food, student loans - not to mention mortgage rates for non youth customers), I'd have thought a lot given the high upfront cost of Baby Bunting products (strollers, cribs, carseats, etc) a lot of customers will be looking for hand me downs from family and friends or looking to buy second hand. A lot of HMD's and 2nd hands are near as good but a fraction the cost of new. 2) this segment seems rife for disruption from amazon.com.au, more so than fast fashion.

that said I am feeling less fringe in my views in how the retail landscape is evolving following a wide range of financial press articles on the woes the australian retail and australian youth fashion sector are encountering in recent weeks.

https://www.afr.com/markets/equity-markets/investors-flee-consumer-stocks-as-economy-slows-20230608-p5df5l
https://www.afr.com/markets/equity-markets/wilson-s-says-avoid-retail-stocks-amid-goods-spending-recession-20230530-p5dcc2
https://www.afr.com/work-and-careers/workplace/minimum-wage-rise-will-push-up-prices-put-jobs-at-risk-gerry-harvey-20230604-p5ddsc
https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/the-rba-is-taking-australia-to-a-precipice-20230528-p5dbug
https://www.afr.com/companies/retail/consumer-crunch-flattens-adairs-20230602-p5dde8

[alokdhir]

Those are horrifying same store sales figures but to be fair I reckon they have a lot of company specific issues. 1) given the rapidly evolving cost of living crisis in Australia over recent weeks & months (rent, utilities, food, student loans - not to mention mortgage rates for non youth customers), I'd have thought a lot given the high upfront cost of Baby Bunting products (strollers, cribs, carseats, etc) a lot of customers will be looking for hand me downs from family and friends or looking to buy second hand. A lot of HMD's and 2nd hands are near as good but a fraction the cost of new. 2) this segment seems rife for disruption from amazon.com.au, more so than fast fashion.

that said I am feeling less fringe in my views in how the retail landscape is evolving following a wide range of financial press articles on the woes the australian retail and australian youth fashion sector are encountering in recent weeks.

https://www.afr.com/markets/equity-markets/investors-flee-consumer-stocks-as-economy-slows-20230608-p5df5l
https://www.afr.com/markets/equity-markets/wilson-s-says-avoid-retail-stocks-amid-goods-spending-recession-20230530-p5dcc2
https://www.afr.com/work-and-careers/workplace/minimum-wage-rise-will-push-up-prices-put-jobs-at-risk-gerry-harvey-20230604-p5ddsc
https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/the-rba-is-taking-australia-to-a-precipice-20230528-p5dbug
https://www.afr.com/companies/retail/consumer-crunch-flattens-adairs-20230602-p5dde8

That shud be very concerning to many holding retail stocks like HLG ...which has a very narrow exit door too ...low vols will make it very difficult to exit if one decides thats the best way NOW

Continuous supplier just over $ 6 is drip feeding the market at the moment ....but one can hold on for the dividends and another up move on other side of this retail recession which is about to eventuate .

People were very brave to get into retail dreams when all other signs were pointing towards retail domino to fall soon then latter ...

[bull....]

think there is still some funds soaking up the selling thats why price holding up , time will catch up eventually to reality though

[ValueNZ]

Many people on this forum claimed that being included in the index would be the catalyst to push the price up to $8. Funny how they were so confident in their posts and yet, it hasn't happened.

[BlackPeter]

Many people on this forum claimed that being included in the index would be the catalyst to push the price up to $8. Funny how they were so confident in their posts and yet, it hasn't happened.

Not many people, just a small group consisting of the usual suspects. Did you fall for them?

Lets face it - we knew that outcome beforehand, didn't we? - it is always the same pattern.

Index inclusion: Hype, more hype, ramping, SP peaks at inclusion day, SP drops. Might end up a bit higher (obviously subject to the companies financials), though, given that Index inclusion typically means more ongoing analyst coverage.

Index exclusion: Hype, more hype, down ramping, SP bottoms at exclusion day, SP recovers afterwards (obviously subject to the companies financials).

Index inclusion and exclusion are typically just interesting events for traders exploiting the hype waves.

Important learning exercise: Never trust rampers - they have their personal agendas and probably selling at peak hype (and buying at low hype).

[winner69]

Not many people, just a small group consisting of the usual suspects. Did you fall for them?

Lets face it - we knew that outcome beforehand, didn't we? - it is always the same pattern.

Index inclusion: Hype, more hype, ramping, SP peaks at inclusion day, SP drops. Might end up a bit higher (obviously subject to the companies financials), though, given that Index inclusion typically means more ongoing analyst coverage.

Index exclusion: Hype, more hype, down ramping, SP bottoms at exclusion day, SP recovers afterwards (obviously subject to the companies financials).

Index inclusion and exclusion are typically just interesting events for traders exploiting the hype waves.

Important learning exercise: Never trust rampers - they have their personal agendas and probably selling at peak hype (and buying at low hype).

And it all ends up in tears ...... like Eroad and PEB

[bull....]

retail figures out today pretty horendous

Retail spending dropped for the first time this year in May, showing the growing pressure on households’ finances.

The largest contributor to the fall in retail card spending was fuel, down $25m (4.5%), followed by apparel, down $13m (3.7%).

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/132294722/retail-spending-drops-monthonmonth-for-the-first-time-this-year

[ValueNZ]

Not many people, just a small group consisting of the usual suspects. Did you fall for them?

Lets face it - we knew that outcome beforehand, didn't we? - it is always the same pattern.

Index inclusion: Hype, more hype, ramping, SP peaks at inclusion day, SP drops. Might end up a bit higher (obviously subject to the companies financials), though, given that Index inclusion typically means more ongoing analyst coverage.

Index exclusion: Hype, more hype, down ramping, SP bottoms at exclusion day, SP recovers afterwards (obviously subject to the companies financials).

Index inclusion and exclusion are typically just interesting events for traders exploiting the hype waves.

Important learning exercise: Never trust rampers - they have their personal agendas and probably selling at peak hype (and buying at low hype).
I did not fall for them hence my question I posted in response to Balance's post stating HLG would go to $8.

A stock is worth 50% more because it's been added to the NZX50?

[Balance]

I did not fall for them hence my question I posted in response to Balance's post stating HLG would go to $8.

And here was my reply to you :


It has always been worth a lot more than it has been trading at imo - lack of interest from brokers, analysts and instos due to it not being in the NZX50.

Now they have no option but to take interest.

They will find a well managed company with an excellent track record and a reliable high dividend yielder. And an outstanding conservative balance sheet with cash in the bank - similar to Briscoes.

And with its inclusion in the NZX50, they are going to have to pay up to get set as the stock is tightly held by mostly retail investors and management/directors.

Happy times ahead!

Which part of the above do you think make no sense?

[ValueNZ]

And here was my reply to you :



Which part of the above do you think make no sense?
Balance your claim that HLG is undervalued is a perfectly justifiable opinion. Your claim that HLG would go to $8 as a result of the being included in the NZX50? Well that hasn't happened, and your posts made it seem like there was no chance it wouldn't. In other words, you were wrong about HLG just like you were wrong about OCA having a capital raise.


Indexing should take it to $8 imo.

It will be sayonara to my shares at that level.

$8.00 …. Here we go!!!!

[Balance]

Balance your claim that HLG is undervalued is a perfectly justifiable opinion. Your claim that HLG would go to $8 as a result of the being included in the NZX50? Well that hasn't happened, and your posts made it seem like there was no chance it wouldn't. In other words, you were wrong about HLG just like you were wrong about OCA having a capital raise.

It is what it is.

I am very happy to make my assessments and views, invest or otherwise not and stand by the decisions.

You seem to have a problem with that?

[ValueNZ]

It is what it is.

I am very happy to make my assessments and views, invest or otherwise not and stand by the decisions.

You seem to have a problem with that?
I have a problem with posts that claim they know where the price is heading in the short term.

[Balance]

I have a problem with posts that claim they know where the price is heading in the short term.

Fair enough - it’s your problem so live with it. You can always ignore posters and posts, right?

[ValueNZ]

Fair enough - it’s your problem so live with it. You can always ignore posters and posts, right?
Sure, I prefer to engage in debate with other posters rather than just block them. I do find many of your posts are well written.

[Balance]

Sure, I prefer to engage in debate with other posters rather than just block them. I do find many of your posts are well written.

There are those of us who post our expectations of where prices are heading - not to ramp*

but

to signal and articulate our beliefs where we believe the prices are going to be due to significant & price sensitive developments.

* Sure there are those who post prices to ramp (be them up or down) but it is surely up to posters and readers to figure out who are the rampers and BS artists on this (or any) site!

FYI, my last purchase of HLG was $6.57 after the indexing announcement as I fully expected HLG to hit $8.00 for the reasons I articulated. It did not but the trajectory of the sp was as expected.

I posted this on PEB post the LCD decision/announcement :

https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?2705-PEB-Pacific-Edge-Ltd/page2090


10c by the end of next week if one of the big holders like ANZ or Harbour decides to get rid of this embarrassment in their portfolios?

PEB has been trading at 10c (albeit earlier than I expected) and I was very surprised that there were people who jumped in and bought shares at 15c on the day (50% more!).

In the end, as I have written ValueNZ, I sincerely believe you have a problem and you either deal with it or live with it for your own betterment.

And oh yes, beware of some of the posters here who warn you of rampers etc. You ever see them post anything of substance or conviction?

[winner69]

I have a problem with posts that claim they know where the price is heading in the short term.

There's a whole industry out their that come out with 'claims' as where a stock's share price is heading

Like Balance they (professionals) generally lay out a rational case for what their targets are even though to some the targets are outrageously high

[Balance]

There's a whole industry out their that come out with 'claims' as where a stock's share price is heading

Like Balance they (professionals) generally lay out a rational case for what their targets are even though to some the targets are outrageously high

ValueNZ only joined in January this year which is why I am taking my time to explain - also who to watch out for in this forum (including me!).

[ValueNZ]

There are those of us who post our expectations of where prices are heading - not to ramp*

but

to signal and articulate our beliefs where we believe the prices are going to be due to significant & price sensitive developments.

* Sure there are those who post prices to ramp (be them up or down) but it is surely up to posters and readers to figure out who are the rampers and BS artists on this (or any) site!

FYI, my last purchase of HLG was $6.57 after the indexing announcement as I fully expected HLG to hit $8.00 for the reasons I articulated. It did not but the trajectory of the sp was as expected.

I posted this on PEB post the LCD decision/announcement :

https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?2705-PEB-Pacific-Edge-Ltd/page2090



PEB has been trading at 10c (albeit earlier than I expected) and I was very surprised that there were people who jumped in and bought shares at 15c on the day (50% more!).

In the end, as I have written ValueNZ, I sincerely believe you have a problem and you either deal with it or live with it for your own betterment.

And oh yes, beware of some of the posters here who warn you of rampers etc. You ever see them post anything of substance or conviction?
Feel free to articulate your beliefs, but this is an open forum and if you make short term price predictions seem like a sure thing, you should expect other posters to point it out when you're wrong.

The problem with short term price predictions is they are very hard to be right about consistently, since markets often act in ways which aren't expected. Since claims that share prices will return to fair value in a short time frame are practically impossible to be correct about consistently, the claims should be scrutinised when they are made.

I suppose if you consider critical thinking and engaging in debate a problem, yes I have a problem.

[Rawz]

STr would be a pretty boring place if people didnt have a crack at where the SP will go... it generates debate. its healthy for a forum.

If someone posts a target price based on the information known at that point in time AND they articulate their reasons.... have a rebuttal then. Not a month later when in hindsight it was the wrong call

[ValueNZ]

STr would be a pretty boring place if people didnt have a crack at where the SP will go... it generates debate. its healthy for a forum.

If someone posts a target price based on the information known at that point in time AND they articulate their reasons.... have a rebuttal then. Not a month later when in hindsight it was the wrong call
I did make a post at the time, which was followed by BlackPeter making a post that I agreed with, so I didn't feel the need to add anymore.

[alokdhir]

There's a whole industry out their that come out with 'claims' as where a stock's share price is heading

Like Balance they (professionals) generally lay out a rational case for what their targets are even though to some the targets are outrageously high

That industry u talking about provide longer term targets then they can hide behind some events which happen during that period ...only if target missed ...otherwise they claim credit ...Like Balance showed two examples ...HLG didnt work out as thought ...but PEB did play out as he forecast ....same goes for his RYM capital raise expectations coming true while OCA call didnt happen ...so 50% success as per these 4 examples ....maybe better then many of the paid industry people ...

But what ValueNZ is highlighting ...short term targets and confidence of that happening ....

HLG was a retail company ...though a well managed one ...so when all Gurus were anticipating recession round the corner ( from expectation of MFT reaching $50 even ...maybe safe to assume people thought DEEP recession ) but somehow they were predicting HLG over $ 10 ...why ? They were doing retail business in some other Universe ?? Recession for MFT shud eventuate into recession for HLG also ...sooner or latter ...imo

[ValueNZ]

There's a whole industry out their that come out with 'claims' as where a stock's share price is heading

Like Balance they (professionals) generally lay out a rational case for what their targets are even though to some the targets are outrageously high
How many of these professionals are able to generate a return that beats the SP500? Not even the professionals are able to consistently make accurate short term price predictions, why would a random ST poster be able to?

[Balance]

How many of these professionals are able to generate a return that beats the SP500? Not even the professionals are able to consistently make accurate short term price predictions, why would a random ST poster be able to?

So when a random ST poster claim to do so, you know what type of character the poster is, right? :)

[bull....]

lol if a person can generate above average returns they are not going to work for someone

[bull....]

How many of these professionals are able to generate a return that beats the SP500? Not even the professionals are able to consistently make accurate short term price predictions, why would a random ST poster be able to?

you know why most cant beat the index , it is because they pretty much all are index followers

[ValueNZ]

ValueNZ only joined in January this year which is why I am taking my time to explain - also who to watch out for in this forum (including me!).
You've been on this forum since 2003 and yet still are of the belief that predicting where the share price is going to go in a short time frame is beneficial to your investments. Traders overall cannot beat the sp500 for long periods of time. Those with a long term investment horizon (at a minimum ten years), are patient and are able to regulate their emotions in a way to ignore, or take advantage of market fluctuations are the ones who are able to beat the sp500.

[ValueNZ]

So when a random ST poster claim to do so, you know what type of character the poster is, right? :)
I can tell by the content of their posts whether I believe they show the qualities of an investor that could beat the sp500.

[Balance]

I can tell by the content of their posts whether I believe they show the qualities of an investor that could beat the sp500.

Good on you! Then you know exactly who to avoid and who not to, right?

So why are you so worked up about price expectations? :D

Works for me but obviously not for you so best you ignore them.

I have 3 posters on my ignore list and trust me, it’s most satisfying not to see the garbage they post.

It’s that simple.

[ValueNZ]

you know why most cant beat the index , it is because they pretty much all are index followers
I agree bull. Most fund managers are unwilling to invest in equities that are deemed "too risky", even when they are able to find investments that are highly undervalued.

[winner69]

Won't hear anything from HLG until August when they will tell us what full year sales and profit have been been .... and the share price is just in a holding pattern at the moment

When they say sales have continued to be pretty strong and profit is about $40m I reckon the share price will head over $7

Come end of September when they confirm that guidance and say the start of the F24 year has been ahead of pcp and announce a 28 cent final divie the share price might even get to $8 in October/November .... and still be relatively cheap

That's how I see things playing out

[Balance]

You've been on this forum since 2003 and yet still are of the belief that predicting where the share price is going to go in a short time frame is beneficial to your investments. Traders overall cannot beat the sp500 for long periods of time. Those with a long term investment horizon (at a minimum ten years), are patient and are able to regulate their emotions in a way to ignore, or take advantage of market fluctuations are the ones who are able to beat the sp500.

Works for me but obviously not for you so to each, their own.

[SailorRob]

lol if a person can generate above average returns they are not going to work for someone

Exactly the point I've been making with Bull all this time. Why are you working

[SailorRob]

In the end, as I have written ValueNZ, I sincerely believe you have a problem and you either deal with it or live with it for your own betterment.

And oh yes, beware of some of the posters here who warn you of rampers etc. You ever see them post anything of substance or conviction?

ValueNZ has a problem alright.

Being one of the VERY few around here that has a clue and is capable of and willing to call out the shysters, being very young, and probably having the ability to compound capital at reasonable rates for a very long time, the problem is going to be what to do with all the money.

[Rawz]

ValueNZ has a problem alright.

Being one of the VERY few around here that has a clue and is capable of and willing to call out the shysters, being very young, and probably having the ability to compound capital at reasonable rates for a very long time, the problem is going to be what to do with all the money.

Hope ValueNZ doesnt put money in OCA. Cant beat the market. waste of time picking individual stocks. no doubt you agree :p

[SailorRob]

Hope ValueNZ doesnt put money in OCA. Cant beat the market. waste of time picking individual stocks. no doubt you agree :p

Why do you hope they don't put money into OCA? Who can't beat the market?

[bull....]

Exactly the point I've been making with Bull all this time. Why are you working

i dont work , just like you

[ValueNZ]

Hope ValueNZ doesnt put money in OCA. Cant beat the market. waste of time picking individual stocks. no doubt you agree :p
I am comfortable with my investment into OCA.

[SailorRob]

i dont work , just like you

You must have stopped very recently as you were posting about having no trading time due to gruelling 60 hour weeks. When did you stop?

[bull....]

You must have stopped very recently as you were posting about having no trading time due to gruelling 60 hour weeks. When did you stop?

i havnt worked for 20 yrs , you must have mis - understood a joke

[SailorRob]

i havnt worked for 20 yrs , you must have mis - understood a joke

No I don't think so... You must have made a lot of jokes that had no punchline Bull.

Anyone on here know you personally can back this up.

No...

[alokdhir]

Won't hear anything from HLG until August when they will tell us what full year sales and profit have been been .... and the share price is just in a holding pattern at the moment

When they say sales have continued to be pretty strong and profit is about $40m I reckon the share price will head over $7

Come end of September when they confirm that guidance and say the start of the F24 year has been ahead of pcp and announce a 28 cent final divie the share price might even get to $8 in October/November .... and still be relatively cheap

That's how I see things playing out

Thats an actionable information ...Hopefully it pans out well . :t_up:

[alokdhir]

BGP ...another well run dividend income company keeps making new 52 week lows ...also on p/e of 10 ...but market not impressed as yet ...Maybe HLG has more traction because of different profile and different geography customers ??

If recession or fear of recession can hit BGP hard why HLG will be spared is a question which I cant answer myself ...

Maybe Super Guru W69 can help here as he seems pretty confident of HLG doing well ahead !!!

[Balance]

I recall Tim Glasson commenting years ago that HLG operates in the value-for-money up-to-date fashion space - not high end and expensive like many of its fashion competitors.

That will be one reason why its business is a lot more resilient than say, David Jones for example.

[Valuegrowth]

I don't worry about one quarter or one year earnings. We can't get any idea from one year earnings. I am comfartable with at least 5 years of earnings. Do you think, they will have reasonable market share over the coming 5 years. Going forward strong competitors will knock out weak competitors. Thanks.

[SailorRob]

I don't worry about one quarter or one year earnings. We can't get any idea from one year earnings. I am comfartable with at least 5 years of earnings. Do you think, they will have reasonable market share over the coming 5 years. Going forward strong competitors will knock out weak competitors. Thanks.

Come fart a what?

[see weed]

So is that it. Are we there yet. Someone is having a little nibble. 5.80 the new low?
hmmmm 4 weeks ago.

[nztx]

Come fart a what?


too early yet for the next leap in the air & off .. when BGP starts twitching, start looking around :)

[see weed]

No comment.

[Muse]

“ Another day, another retailer revealing sliding earnings. This time it is discounted clothing group Best & Less, whose sales have fallen 13.2 per cent in the past five weeks.”

https://www.afr.com/chanticleer/best-and-less-reveals-australia-s-spending-pain-and-there-s-more-to-come-20230620-p5dhvd


Fear factor grips retailers as sales slow. A sharp slide in sales is forcing retailers to accelerate discounting and promotions amid warnings that the downturn in consumer spending could be deeper than during the early 1990s recession.

https://www.afr.com/companies/retail/fear-factor-grips-retailers-as-spending-slows-20230614-p5dgiy

[Fortunecookie]

“ Another day, another retailer revealing sliding earnings. This time it is discounted clothing group Best & Less, whose sales have fallen 13.2 per cent in the past five weeks.”

https://www.afr.com/chanticleer/best-and-less-reveals-australia-s-spending-pain-and-there-s-more-to-come-20230620-p5dhvd


Fear factor grips retailers as sales slow. A sharp slide in sales is forcing retailers to accelerate discounting and promotions amid warnings that the downturn in consumer spending could be deeper than during the early 1990s recession.

https://www.afr.com/companies/retail/fear-factor-grips-retailers-as-spending-slows-20230614-p5dgiy

Imo part of the clothing spend will be reassigned to buying clothing while overseas on holiday.

Wfh meant we dont need to physically interact as much. Therefore less need to update the wardrobe. Although I do accept to there is a greater push to have workers back into the office more often.

Dollar General and Citi Trends from the states. Both in the discount segment showed similar metrics a few weeks ago.

I mentioned previously footlocker have a tonne of inventory and have been discounting since boxing day.

[see weed]

Go you little beauty. Winner over on Stock Talk must be right. all the young ladies will be flocking into Glasson stores to make themselves look good for the Taylor Swift next year:t_up:

[Balance]

Go you little beauty. Winner over on Stock Talk must be right. all the young ladies will be flocking into Glasson stores to make themselves look good for the Taylor Swift next year:t_up:

End of year window dressing.

[nztx]

Go you little beauty. Winner over on Stock Talk must be right. all the young ladies will be flocking into Glasson stores to make themselves look good for the Taylor Swift next year:t_up:


back on your Buy list ? :)

[winner69]

The new HLG CEO?

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/KMD/414400/398129.pdf

[Muse]

The new HLG CEO?

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/KMD/414400/398129.pdf


yup.
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/414402

quick turnaround by HLG in the appointment.
looks like a very solid numbers guy.

[Waltzing]

Well lets hope NZ operations doesnt feel the cold wind in this report...

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/132500144/prices-set-to-rise-as-retailers-battle-high-costs-and-fear-of-closure

[alokdhir]

Does KMD views about economy has any impact on HLG business ...I shud think so ...But SP does not think so at present ....maybe soon

Die hard supporter has reduced earnings expectations ....shud mean something

But many including myself were already mentioning difficult times ahead ..." Writing On The Wall "

[see weed]

End of year window dressing.
I like your humor :t_up:.

[see weed]

back on your Buy list ? :)
Wait until after August. Or if it gets below a certain price. Went past Glasson and hall. today in Dress Mart Onehunga, both stores looked pretty busy. Last week went past Glassons Sylvia Park and it looked pretty busy with mums and teenage daughters Shopping. Sylvia Park was very busy. I bought dress boots at Hallensteins. Guess who was singing on the big screen at back of shop in Glassons. Yes none other but Taylor Swift :t_up:.

[Habits]

The rocket has been refuelled, and lifting off

I wonder why

[winner69]

Maybe some Aussie outfit getting interested

[Old mate]

Beagle getting primed up again

[winner69]

Full year update in a few weeks …..should be pretty good

[Dlownz]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/top-ten-companies-for-repaying-covid-19-wage-subsidy-revealed/HJDBP6KFQBBH7EQOGCJDUDWFRI/
Will any pressure come back on Hlg. They did very well out of this.

[winner69]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/top-ten-companies-for-repaying-covid-19-wage-subsidy-revealed/HJDBP6KFQBBH7EQOGCJDUDWFRI/
Will any pressure come back on Hlg. They did very well out of this.

They won’t be paying it back ….they fall back on what the Professors said that fompanies received the wage subsidy were justified to get it from legal, ethical and moral perspectives.

And they did well out the Oz government as well


mostly gone to shareholders anyway

[Sideshow Bob]

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/415694

Been naughty....

[see weed]

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/415694

Been naughty....
$75,000 a bit over the top. Nobody gained or lost anything. It was just little mistake and I was thinking maybe $1000 or $2000 fine would be appropriate.

[850man]

$75,000 a bit over the top. Nobody gained or lost anything. It was just little mistake and I was thinking maybe $1000 or $2000 fine would be appropriate.
I was expecting a sentence of home detention

[winner69]

So $75,000 plus costs for being ‘negligent’ ……..and publishing untruths in Annual Reports

These things happen sometimes when a few fuddy duddies (though they weren’t too fussy) like Bell, Popplewell and Ford hang around for decades …become complacent

Whatever not a good look governance wise …..the Directors should front up with cash and not put the burden on shareholders

[Waltzing]

No its just the NZX wanting to get some morning tea money as they ran the float cash tin down...

[winner69]

No its just the NZX wanting to get some morning tea money as they ran the float cash tin down...

I would have thought your new fandangled reporting IT system would have raised this as red flag. ….worse than the columns not adding up.

[Muse]

You'd think with the focus from RegCo on director's status that HLG would have the right directors listed on its website in the inventor centre....off by 2...one long gone and another new one. doesn't matter much NZX & coy office are correct and the ones that matter & not sure the investor centre gets much traffic (unlike its instagram)
https://www.hallensteinglasson.co.nz/about-us

Not sure the TikTok girls would agree HLG's diversity & inclusion policy are being met (or former or current employees posting on glassdoor, for that matter)

[Waltzing]

" new fandangled reporting IT "

will answer the state of that over on the other site...

[see weed]

Well here we are half way between dividends, and trading update in couple weeks. might be good time to top up in couple of weeks.

[see weed]

Am expecting HLG trading update tomorrow. Any thoughts out there on profit/loss etc. We will not know about div amount until end of Sept. I would be happy with 18c or over for Dec. div. Am only getting about 5.2% int. in the bank compared to HLG 8%+ at the moment. I got a spare bit of $ sitting in CM account itching to go somewhere, maybe more HLG, but might wait for tomorrow update.

[winner69]

The Company advises that Group sales for the 12 months ended 1 August 2023 were $409.71 million, an increase of 16.7% on the prior year ($351.21 million).

Group net profit after tax is expected to be within the range of $31.8 million to $32.3 million, an increase of approximately +25.2% on the prior year ($25.6 million).

The results of the prior corresponding period included multiple store closures across Australia and New Zealand due to lockdowns for much of the first three months of the prior year.

And of course they had to say ….The balance sheet for the Group remains strong and stock levels continue to be well controlled.

[LaserEyeKiwi]

Have not kept up a close watch with the retailers lately - but I presume on an ex-cash basis HLG now trading below a 9x multiple?

[Muse]

So with revenue of $409.7m for the full year that implies the 2H was $186.4m, or up 3.2% on 2H FY22. When they issued the 1H FY23 update they said sales were up 13.9% for the first 8 weeks of the winter season / 2H period. Trading must have turned quite negative later in the 2h to drive that fall in cumulative revenue growth.

NPAT at the midpoint of guidance of $32.05m, implying 2H NPAT of $11.225m. That's an 18% fall in NPAT/EPS for the 2nd half & probably a touch worse than I was expecting and a bit of an early indication on what's to come in my view. Looks like continued growth in CODB and pressure on margins not withstanding the drop in freight rates. Too much punter commentary focus on topline and less on the volume/margin/CODB dynamics that cause these big swing in earnings off small changes in revenue.

A bit of a worry is the read through from the Universal Store update yesterday (who do 16-25 youth casual apparel and are one of the best comparables for Glassons AU), where they noted same store sales for the first 7 weeks of their new FY24 financial year was down 8.8% vs the same period last year.

I'm guessing the 1H FY24 result is going to look pretty poor with quite meaningful falls in EPS/DPS (bigger than the 18% fall in the 2H FY23) given the period they are cycling over, the currency, labour cost rises, theft, fall in consumer spend and promotional activity occurring in the market. and indeed negative for the full year.

Interestingly some of the other apparel brands out there (Accent for instance) posted results showing 2H sales & earnings held up a lot better than HLG/UNI....the youth customer seems disproportionately under pressure.

None of that a knock on the business - operationally excellent, strong brand, very good financial metrics etc. I've been musing about overtrading in the Australian market for a while now (and NZ is clearly under pressure) so that bubble is naturally deflating and I'm sure they are doing better than a lot of other retailers w/ lesser management teams in the same market.

anyway just my thoughts & initial reaction....always important to do your own research.

[winner69]

Moose …what you really saying is watch those profit numbers

Last 2 years for HLG interesting

NPAT to sales %

F22 H1 7.0% and H2 7.6% giving full year 7.3%
F23 H1 9.3% and H2 6.0% giving full year 7.8%

Last six months at 6% ruined the year …probably as a result of all things you mentioned manifesting themselves

If last six months an indication of new year than NPAT of $25m on cards eh

[Muse]

Full year still positive & underpinned by the first half, but rather than 'ruined' lets say the year was one of two halves...or maybe more relevantly the later half was one of two distinct quarters. I suspect in Q3 looked pretty decent from a topline % growth on the prior year perspective where ragtraders were pretty hard hit. Run rate faltering a bit but still posting decent comps. Then the last quarter of the year things started to briskly unwind.

The business probably enters the new year with a lot of external pressure attacking different parts of its P&L concurrently. Falling youth consumer spend at the same time there is a lot of pressure on overheads. Previously I had wondered from a GP margin perspective if they didn't trough in the first half of FY23 they might the second. I'm assuming freight costs are included in COGS & above GP and they have come back quite a bit over the last 12 months and particularly in the last half and ought to compensate for higher unit costs, shrinkage (theft), promotional activity. And FX did improve this year (but recently fell back into the gutter) so will be interested to see the accounts on if the fall in GP was arrested in the second half. But entering the new year FX really is at its worst level for both the NZD/USD and AUD/USD for several years except for a month and half period around October last year, and given they purchase stock in us dollars it's an unwelcome change and potential impact to margins.

Topline, margin, and then CODB as the final piece of the puzzle on how profit drops down. Australian margins shine through but there are growing pressures on labour cost for its stores & its a bit of a worry for Glassons AU and the wider retail industry. I'll be keen to see the allocation the CODB and the brand P&Ls and how that involved in the 2H because the growth amongst them hasn't been similar. For instance, in 1H the NZ brands did really well at the topline (hallensteins in particular), in absolute dollar terms, and gross profit dollars likewise quite strong even if the margin wasn't flash. But drop down to NPAT was pretty poor and that can really only be explained by CODB, and its the NZ results that provide that all important imputation to the dividends. and for NZ dividend investors that is really meaningful and if the imputation level keeps falling and gets stuck in the ~30% level for the forseeable future you may as well just be investing into an AU company receiving unfranked dividends.

So you've got a cost issue in NZ and a maybe bit of a brand health issue (whereas AU's brand is more or less in its prime). I suspect there may be some rationalisation of the store network in NZ to help address because I don't think there is a lot of fat you can take out of the business otherwise. Store staff are often casuals and you ought to be able to flex that with revenue but the business runs pretty lean and efficient as it is some I'm not sure it can release labour to the same degree as some of other retailers. The second issue is I think there are probably some costs that need to go into the business to take it forward (ie the new CFO, room for other execs). There is a new CEO coming on board from KMD which operates more of a corporate (& ESG) structure so can't discount the risk more overheads go into the business which could offset some of the gains gotten through tinkering with the NZ network. I'd imagine fast fashion is high pressure enough as is but given the level of turnover in execs (~5 group or divisional CEO's have resigned in as many years) you do wonder a bit about burnout and sustainable its structure is.

Hopefully youth apparel spending stabilises and maybe lifts later in the year or early next year. I imagine a lot of revenge travelling has sucked up a lot of available funds but then again maybe there is still pent up demand that will be released as airline prices fall from their ridiculous levels (but that is just a timing issue IMO). So things could stabilise from that perspective absent a meaningful rise in unemployment which remains a possibility. But sadly the picture on overheads is pretty challenging for the next few years...insurance and security, rampant per hour labour inflation (& if it does moderate it doesn't fall), and the rental picture less clear but in the short time remains a challenge as rents set in the last 12 months have seen landlords try to clawback some of the concessions they gave during covid. But terms written for new leases should improve later as landlords see more tenants struggle.

Glassons AU probably open a store or two every year and don't see that changing in the short term. Be interesting if the new CEO is more ambitious on rollout or goes with the flow. The time these stores take to reach maturity and the payback on the invested capital (stock plus fitout net of landlord contribution) is pretty impressive in normal times.

anyway - just my musings based on what I've seen and heard.

[LaserEyeKiwi]

Full year still positive & underpinned by the first half, but rather than 'ruined' lets say the year was one of two halves...or maybe more relevantly the later half was one of two distinct quarters. I suspect in Q3 looked pretty decent from a topline % growth on the prior year perspective where ragtraders were pretty hard hit. Run rate faltering a bit but still posting decent comps. Then the last quarter of the year things started to briskly unwind.

The business probably enters the new year with a lot of external pressure attacking different parts of its P&L concurrently. Falling youth consumer spend at the same time there is a lot of pressure on overheads. Previously I had wondered from a GP margin perspective if they didn't trough in the first half of FY23 they might the second. I'm assuming freight costs are included in COGS & above GP and they have come back quite a bit over the last 12 months and particularly in the last half and ought to compensate for higher unit costs, shrinkage (theft), promotional activity. And FX did improve this year (but recently fell back into the gutter) so will be interested to see the accounts on if the fall in GP was arrested in the second half. But entering the new year FX really is at its worst level for both the NZD/USD and AUD/USD for several years except for a month and half period around October last year, and given they purchase stock in us dollars it's an unwelcome change and potential impact to margins.

Topline, margin, and then CODB as the final piece of the puzzle on how profit drops down. Australian margins shine through but there are growing pressures on labour cost for its stores & its a bit of a worry for Glassons AU and the wider retail industry. I'll be keen to see the allocation the CODB and the brand P&Ls and how that involved in the 2H because the growth amongst them hasn't been similar. For instance, in 1H the NZ brands did really well at the topline (hallensteins in particular), in absolute dollar terms, and gross profit dollars likewise quite strong even if the margin wasn't flash. But drop down to NPAT was pretty poor and that can really only be explained by CODB, and its the NZ results that provide that all important imputation to the dividends. and for NZ dividend investors that is really meaningful and if the imputation level keeps falling and gets stuck in the ~30% level for the forseeable future you may as well just be investing into an AU company receiving unfranked dividends.

So you've got a cost issue in NZ and a maybe bit of a brand health issue (whereas AU's brand is more or less in its prime). I suspect there may be some rationalisation of the store network in NZ to help address because I don't think there is a lot of fat you can take out of the business otherwise. Store staff are often casuals and you ought to be able to flex that with revenue but the business runs pretty lean and efficient as it is some I'm not sure it can release labour to the same degree as some of other retailers. The second issue is I think there are probably some costs that need to go into the business to take it forward (ie the new CFO, room for other execs). There is a new CEO coming on board from KMD which operates more of a corporate (& ESG) structure so can't discount the risk more overheads go into the business which could offset some of the gains gotten through tinkering with the NZ network. I'd imagine fast fashion is high pressure enough as is but given the level of turnover in execs (~5 group or divisional CEO's have resigned in as many years) you do wonder a bit about burnout and sustainable its structure is.

Hopefully youth apparel spending stabilises and maybe lifts later in the year or early next year. I imagine a lot of revenge travelling has sucked up a lot of available funds but then again maybe there is still pent up demand that will be released as airline prices fall from their ridiculous levels (but that is just a timing issue IMO). So things could stabilise from that perspective absent a meaningful rise in unemployment which remains a possibility. But sadly the picture on overheads is pretty challenging for the next few years...insurance and security, rampant per hour labour inflation (& if it does moderate it doesn't fall), and the rental picture less clear but in the short time remains a challenge as rents set in the last 12 months have seen landlords try to clawback some of the concessions they gave during covid. But terms written for new leases should improve later as landlords see more tenants struggle.

Glassons AU probably open a store or two every year and don't see that changing in the short term. Be interesting if the new CEO is more ambitious on rollout or goes with the flow. The time these stores take to reach maturity and the payback on the invested capital (stock plus fitout net of landlord contribution) is pretty impressive in normal times.

anyway - just my musings based on what I've seen and heard.

Where does the slowdown in youth spending narrative come from? Haven’t heard of this before, is it something other companies have said?

I can totally see a slowdown in mortgage addled adults spending less on themselves, and mortgage addled parents spending less on themselves AND their kids, that makes a lot of sense.

[Muse]

I think it's a pretty new development LeK. The first cracks were back in May when Universal Store updated it would come in a lot below consensus. I sat in on the Universal Store conference call yesterday and they said rents in Australia have really gone up, student loan debt is up, yet young people deciding to spend more on travel, together with the usual issues we all suffer from (food, petrol, general inflation, etc). They gave the impression its more the 18-30 year olds who are spending less than the 15-17 year olds at home, because while the bank of mom and dad may be under strain (say a 15 year old, parent was ~30yrs old on average when had kid, parents would be about 45now and have a mortgage) it was still easy for youngsters to get a job to make up the difference.

There was this report from CBA back in May that showed spending was disproportionately slowing in the younger demographic. page 6.
https://www.commbank.com.au/content/dam/caas/newsroom/docs/CommBank%20iQ%20Cost%20of%20Living%20Report%20May% 202023.pdf

UNI made an acquisition part way through the year so took some effort to unpick but excluding the acquisition sales per average store fell 4% during the 2H. Impossible to work out how like for like sales performed in the 2H. They noted like for like sales were down something like 9% in the early weeks of FY24, but have quite an aggressive store opening plan. The CEO said there had been some pretty irrational discounting occurring in the market in recent months but seemed to have leveled off post EOFY/winter sales.

The Iconic also posted some poor numbers for Australasia but as an online pureplay they got knocked around by people going back into stores.

[BlackPeter]

Just noticed that marketscreener just added a consensus tab to HLG. Probably in recognition of its new NZX50 status. Current analyst "consensus" is $5.50 and comes with a SELL recommendation.

https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/HALLENSTEIN-GLASSON-HOLDI-6495564/

Admittedly - so far it is only one single analyst they are reporting on (might be the only one looking into this company, i.e. - consensus easy to achieve), but still ... I am wondering whether this will motivate punters?

Oops - was this the SP just denting the MA200?

[winner69]

HLG going to report a 25% increase in profits and a decent size dividend in a few weeks

That’ll give the share price a boost BP

[see weed]

HLG going to report a 25% increase in profits and a decent size dividend in a few weeks

That’ll give the share price a boost BP
Sounds good to me:t_up:

[see weed]

Unlikely to surprise in HLG results this Friday, forecast from FB on GoodReturns yesterday.

[see weed]

HLG going to report a 25% increase in profits and a decent size dividend in a few weeks

That’ll give the share price a boost BP
I don't know about 25% profit but am predicting 18c to 24c div could be coming our way in about 9 weeks:)

[winner69]

I don't know about 25% profit but am predicting 18c to 24c div could be coming our way in about 9 weeks:)

And the share price will up by 18 to 24 cents onbFriday

[850man]

And the share price will up by 18 to 24 cents onbFriday

Wish I had a crystal ball like you have W69

[winner69]

Wish I had a crystal ball like you have W69

One of things that seems to happen quite often …..share prices go up when a divie announced and often by the amount of the divie ….and HLG has a pretty good record in doing this.

[850man]

Their divvies are pretty healthy sums as well :-)

[see weed]

One of things that seems to happen quite often …..share prices go up when a divie announced and often by the amount of the divie ….and HLG has a pretty good record in doing this.
Yes you are right. Am looking forward to tomorrows results. I will now put up a post on Stocktalk in about 10 min.

[BlackPeter]

Yes you are right. Am looking forward to tomorrows results. I will now put up a post on Stocktalk in about 10 min.

Is this material information ;) ?

[see weed]

Is this material information ;) ?
No, just sp history from a year ago on results day and a few days following.

[bull....]

that was a good result.
going forward it looks like the slowdown is starting to impact them

[Sideshow Bob]

that was a good result.
going forward it looks like the slowdown is starting to impact them

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/419108

The Company advises that Group sales for the 12 months to 1 August 2023 were $409.71 million which were +16.7% up on the prior year ($351.21 million).
The audited net profit after tax for the 12 months was $31.98 million, an increase of +24.9% on the prior corresponding period ($25.61 million).

[Muse]

that was a good result.
going forward it looks like the slowdown is starting to impact them

It already is - the 1H was a fantastic result - the 2H was quite poor, and that looks like continuing into FY24. A few observations.

A helicopter perspective first. Sales in the 2H were up 3.2%, while NPAT fell 18.6% over the same period. Sales for the first 8 weeks of FY24 are down 5.9%. So using the exit run rate from the 2H, when a lift in sales of 3.2% still produced a fall in NPAT of 18.6%, what happens to NPAT when the group is posting now meaningful declines in revenue? It's clear topline growth is no longer translating through to earnings growth, and from the inflationary effect on CODB there are substantial cost issues & the business is increasingly operationally leveraged, a highly undesirable position to be in with falling volumes & sales.

Case in point - 2H revenues of $186.4m were higher than in any of the preceding 5 financial years, but 2H NPAT of $11.152m was also below all those same periods. Implicitly its 2H NPAT margin as a % of sales is also now lower than the previous five 2H results.

This is despite a 180bps improvement in group GP margins achieved in the 2H, relative to the first half. In post #8895 I mused if GP margins had troughed in the first half (given freight rate movements and if not would be in the 2H) and that looks to have transpired, a positive development. That said the outlook for margin still looks challenging given the group purchases raw materials (and pays for inward freight) in US dollars, and both the NZD and AUD have depreciated considerably in the new financial year relative to 2H FY23. I would have thought the group, particularly in Australia, completed the bulk of its excess winter clearances in July (typically the biggest month for winter discounts) and perhaps some into August, necessitated by a warmer winter, so I'd expect some overall margin improvement in the new year.

So that really shines a spotlight on overheads/cost of doing business (CODB), and the growing operational leverage in the business. In the 1H FY23 result, management commented they were looking for cost efficiencies wherever possible. Despite that, CODB (including lease interest expense) still increased 9.1%. Sure, a few new stores stores since then, so on a CODB per average store basis, increased about 7.3%. If you break it down more looking at the cost segment notes, all up lease & rental expenses per average store (ROU depreciation + ROU interest + expensed short term rentals) were up about 12.9% per AS, wages up 3.9% per AS, outward distribution largely variable and consistent as a % of sales, and other CODB/average store up about 6.5%.

I wouldn't necessarily expect CODB to continue at that rate into FY24 but I don't think it will be materially less than that. Wage pressure persists in both countries (particularly in Australia), which hopefully the group can offset some by flexing and releasing casuals as demand falls (and I expect they did in the 2H FY23). Rent remains high and many of them will have references to CPI which hurts in a falling demand environment. It'll take a few years for that to fully normalise as leases come up for renewal as pressure grows on landlords to improve terms in respect of the macro environment. Rolling forward will be additional lease expense associated with new office and warehouse space taken next to the Sydney fulfillment centre that wasn't in 1H Fy23's result (a bit of an investment for the future). Insurance costs, security costs, rates are all headed in the wrong direction. HLG's board and management team are very savvy old hands renowned for being hard negotiators so I'd expect they will do a better job than most in managing the situation. That said they have a new CEO coming in from KMD, which is a much more top heavy, bureaucratic and ESG focused model so probably worth considering how that could impact on cost creep in the future.

On the demand side, a 5.9% fall in sales over the first 8 weeks of the new financial year is meaningful when you consider the impact of inflation and the monthly spike up associated with the FIFA WWC in both countries. I note that Forbar who are the only analyst covering HLG were forecasting immediately prior to today FY24 NPAT of $23.6m, and only expected sales to fall 1% in 1H FY24, so not tracking well from that perspective. To be fair their reports never really mentioned the impact of freight on GP and centred on FX so I wouldn't be surprised to see if they now revise their revenue assumptions, GP %, and adjust CODB forecasts accordingly following todays report.

The most important 2 months of the financial year are November and December which isn't far away, so one shouldn't read too much into the first 8 week run rate (up or down). Rent is high (& accelerated to a record high in NZ last month), food price inflation remains high if moderating, fuel has gone back up to very uncomfortable levels, student debt interest is increasing, parents mortgages are increasing as they roll off fixed terms, and unemployment while very low will probably only go in one direction. You'd have to do some mental gymnastics in order to rationalise a positive retail demand picture. A new Glassons AU store in scheduled for opening in December (most of the way through 1H), and probably another one in the 2H if history is any guide, but with ~119 in the network the margin gain from individual new store openings is diminishing.

The most positive thing in the 2H result from my perspective was the implementation of transfer pricing & its positive impact on imputation credits and theoretical lowering of future effective tax rates. Early last year I commented on this thread that they should implement one - nice to see it being actioned

The gradual erosion of imputation credits is an issue for dividend loving kiwis but there is one partial solution to it that could be implemented, transfer pricing.....multi jurisdiction retailers give regard to (with high levels of outside professional advice) a transferpricing policy that ensures the appropriate level of profit earnt and tax is paid where the bulk of the underlying value creation occurs. IE, the design, procurement, marketing, and financing functions....Glancing at the FY21 stat accounts it appears Glassons AU has slightly better GP margins than Glassons NZ - that signals no transfer pricing arrangement as any inter company fees to recover those vital functions would normally be borne in COGS and dimish gross profit margins....I've had a brief glance through linkedin and it appears the majority of glassons non retail staff (ie design, procurement, marketing & finance) are in NZ (but certainly not ALL of them - James Glassons is in AU for instance).From a tax perspective this would do 3 things. It would lower HLG's tax risk in NZ as it could be argued HLG should be charging more for some of those services. It would increase the tax paid in NZ. And it would increase the imputation credits available to HLG's overwhelmingly NZ shareholder base.

That's a real tangible improvement and well done to management for implementing it. And that they retained the 24cps dividend which was a gimmie given they underpaid in 1H and brought the full year payout to 89.5% (FY18 to FY23 average payout of 90.3%).

Anyway - one long TLDR muse from me - all my opinions & initial reactions only. Retail an increasingly volatile beast so critical to do your own research and come to your own view.

[winner69]

Share price went by more than the divie ….must like the outlook …..good eh

[see weed]

Sellers building up and not many buyers. My T/D matured yesterday and looking at that 8.3% yld and 10.78 pe and 24c ex div in 7 weeks. Am keeping a close eye on this one and ready to jump back in as soon as all the sellers have dried up.

[see weed]

Buyers building up. Sp up in last couple days. Anybody wanting to sell at under 5.80c we are here and waiting. Good test for person selling 20,000 at 5.95 do they really want to sell or is it what I call an accumulation block. the divi chasers might be coming soon. 8%+yld here we come ;)

[Rawz]

Did this cool post but wrong thread lol bye

[bull....]

It already is - the 1H was a fantastic result - the 2H was quite poor, and that looks like continuing into FY24. A few observations.

A helicopter perspective first. Sales in the 2H were up 3.2%, while NPAT fell 18.6% over the same period. Sales for the first 8 weeks of FY24 are down 5.9%. So using the exit run rate from the 2H, when a lift in sales of 3.2% still produced a fall in NPAT of 18.6%, what happens to NPAT when the group is posting now meaningful declines in revenue? It's clear topline growth is no longer translating through to earnings growth, and from the inflationary effect on CODB there are substantial cost issues & the business is increasingly operationally leveraged, a highly undesirable position to be in with falling volumes & sales.

Case in point - 2H revenues of $186.4m were higher than in any of the preceding 5 financial years, but 2H NPAT of $11.152m was also below all those same periods. Implicitly its 2H NPAT margin as a % of sales is also now lower than the previous five 2H results.

This is despite a 180bps improvement in group GP margins achieved in the 2H, relative to the first half. In post #8895 I mused if GP margins had troughed in the first half (given freight rate movements and if not would be in the 2H) and that looks to have transpired, a positive development. That said the outlook for margin still looks challenging given the group purchases raw materials (and pays for inward freight) in US dollars, and both the NZD and AUD have depreciated considerably in the new financial year relative to 2H FY23. I would have thought the group, particularly in Australia, completed the bulk of its excess winter clearances in July (typically the biggest month for winter discounts) and perhaps some into August, necessitated by a warmer winter, so I'd expect some overall margin improvement in the new year.

So that really shines a spotlight on overheads/cost of doing business (CODB), and the growing operational leverage in the business. In the 1H FY23 result, management commented they were looking for cost efficiencies wherever possible. Despite that, CODB (including lease interest expense) still increased 9.1%. Sure, a few new stores stores since then, so on a CODB per average store basis, increased about 7.3%. If you break it down more looking at the cost segment notes, all up lease & rental expenses per average store (ROU depreciation + ROU interest + expensed short term rentals) were up about 12.9% per AS, wages up 3.9% per AS, outward distribution largely variable and consistent as a % of sales, and other CODB/average store up about 6.5%.

I wouldn't necessarily expect CODB to continue at that rate into FY24 but I don't think it will be materially less than that. Wage pressure persists in both countries (particularly in Australia), which hopefully the group can offset some by flexing and releasing casuals as demand falls (and I expect they did in the 2H FY23). Rent remains high and many of them will have references to CPI which hurts in a falling demand environment. It'll take a few years for that to fully normalise as leases come up for renewal as pressure grows on landlords to improve terms in respect of the macro environment. Rolling forward will be additional lease expense associated with new office and warehouse space taken next to the Sydney fulfillment centre that wasn't in 1H Fy23's result (a bit of an investment for the future). Insurance costs, security costs, rates are all headed in the wrong direction. HLG's board and management team are very savvy old hands renowned for being hard negotiators so I'd expect they will do a better job than most in managing the situation. That said they have a new CEO coming in from KMD, which is a much more top heavy, bureaucratic and ESG focused model so probably worth considering how that could impact on cost creep in the future.

On the demand side, a 5.9% fall in sales over the first 8 weeks of the new financial year is meaningful when you consider the impact of inflation and the monthly spike up associated with the FIFA WWC in both countries. I note that Forbar who are the only analyst covering HLG were forecasting immediately prior to today FY24 NPAT of $23.6m, and only expected sales to fall 1% in 1H FY24, so not tracking well from that perspective. To be fair their reports never really mentioned the impact of freight on GP and centred on FX so I wouldn't be surprised to see if they now revise their revenue assumptions, GP %, and adjust CODB forecasts accordingly following todays report.

The most important 2 months of the financial year are November and December which isn't far away, so one shouldn't read too much into the first 8 week run rate (up or down). Rent is high (& accelerated to a record high in NZ last month), food price inflation remains high if moderating, fuel has gone back up to very uncomfortable levels, student debt interest is increasing, parents mortgages are increasing as they roll off fixed terms, and unemployment while very low will probably only go in one direction. You'd have to do some mental gymnastics in order to rationalise a positive retail demand picture. A new Glassons AU store in scheduled for opening in December (most of the way through 1H), and probably another one in the 2H if history is any guide, but with ~119 in the network the margin gain from individual new store openings is diminishing.

The most positive thing in the 2H result from my perspective was the implementation of transfer pricing & its positive impact on imputation credits and theoretical lowering of future effective tax rates. Early last year I commented on this thread that they should implement one - nice to see it being actioned


That's a real tangible improvement and well done to management for implementing it. And that they retained the 24cps dividend which was a gimmie given they underpaid in 1H and brought the full year payout to 89.5% (FY18 to FY23 average payout of 90.3%).

Anyway - one long TLDR muse from me - all my opinions & initial reactions only. Retail an increasingly volatile beast so critical to do your own research and come to your own view.

nice.
my macro view is aus labour market is really starting to soften now , possible more rate rises before yr end , retail turnover has been declining all yr and if you consider immigration is very high take this out and its a big slowing , savings are starting to decline too now just like in the US

[see weed]

Sellers building up and not many buyers. My T/D matured yesterday and looking at that 8.3% yld and 10.78 pe and 24c ex div in 7 weeks. Am keeping a close eye on this one and ready to jump back in as soon as all the sellers have dried up.
That makes a nice change more buyers than sellers. Must be the div chasers including me. Bit over 5 weeks to ex div 24c.

[see weed]

Buyers building up. Sp up in last couple days. Anybody wanting to sell at under 5.80c we are here and waiting. Good test for person selling 20,000 at 5.95 do they really want to sell or is it what I call an accumulation block. the divi chasers might be coming soon. 8%+yld here we come ;)
Looks like the 20,000 seller has gone now anyone else want to sell under 5.80 I am ready and waiting. But I will not be in the top 20 shareholders of HLG because I think you need to have more than 167,000 and I am nowhere near that amount yet:)

[see weed]

AS mentioned on Stock Talk about an hour ago, HLG sp creeping up 25c in last 3 weeks. If anyone out there wants to sell any, there are 3 others waiting to buy in the $5.89 to $590 bracket. 24c ex div in 4 weeks and another div 16 weeks later. :)

[see weed]

Oh dear, looks like I have to pay over $6 now :mellow:.

[nztx]

Oh dear, looks like I have to pay over $6 now :mellow:.



What you done now ? :)

[see weed]

What you done now ? :)
Not much, just watching and buying, but looks like I have some competition. Someone else has cottoned on to div due next month. That little worm is heading to 6.10 at this rate.

[nztx]

Not much, just watching and buying, but looks like I have some competition. Someone else has cottoned on to div due next month. That little worm is heading to 6.10 at this rate.


Looks that way .. good runner this one, as quality paying runners become scarcer on the local board

[winner69]

Stats nz Electronic Card Spend for October

apparel, down $7.1 million (2.1 percent) On September number

Jeez, the Yanks would say that’s an annualised fall of 25% ..ouch

HLG might be suffering a bit

[winner69]

Stats nz Electronic Card Spend for October

apparel, down $7.1 million (2.1 percent) On September number

Jeez, the Yanks would say that’s an annualised fall of 25% ..ouch

HLG might be suffering a bit

That’s based on seasonally adjusted numbers ….in actual $ Apparel sales in October month down 12% on October last year

Hard to HLG growing sales in NZ in this environment

[Muse]

That’s based on seasonally adjusted numbers ….in actual $ Apparel sales in October month down 12% on October last year

Hard to HLG growing sales in NZ in this environment

12% down on last year is huge.
Wouldnt be surprised though if many held off in anticipation of November sales.

[winner69]

12% down on last year is huge.
Wouldnt be surprised though if many held off in anticipation of November sales.

Just part of the post-Covid normalisation process …..best part of another year to go

[see weed]

What you done now ? :)
Not much, just a quick visit to Sylvia Park to see the Hally boys and Glassy girls. But all is said on the other site.

[nztx]

Not much, just a quick visit to Sylvia Park to see the Hally boys and Glassy girls. But all is said on the other site.


Nice job holding it up there .. 3 weeks to go ..

[Muse]

That’s based on seasonally adjusted numbers ….in actual $ Apparel sales in October month down 12% on October last year

Hard to HLG growing sales in NZ in this environment

Retailwatch shows October's NZ apparel sales down 9.1% on October last year, so Stat NZ credit card stats not a rogue result. While Black Friday has gotten bigger ever year I reckon more people that usual held off buying in October with the intention of buying during the November sales so really need to take Oct/Nov together rather than drawing too many conclusions from the sheer level of the spending decline. Even if there is a bounce back in November there will be consequences at the margin level

Over in OZ Universal Store gave a trading update yesterday. FY24 Same store / like for like sales are down 6.4% YTD, although the decline narrowed to -4.4% over the last 7 trading weeks.

Read CommBank IQ's Q3 retail report...tagline "Young customers are most impacted". Fascinating reading that lines up with what I'd been warning about with respect to the impact of rent, student debt, food, fuel costs on the youth customer in Australia.

Q3 Spend Per Capita by Age Group
18 to 24: -1%
25 to 29: -5.1%
30 to 34: -1.9%
35-39: -1.1%
40-44: 0.2%
44-49: 0.9%
50-54: 1.5%
55-59: 3.5%
60-64: 3.7%
65-69: 4.8%
70-74: 5.9%
75+ 8.1%

With CPI of 5.2% during the quarter only 70 years and above have actually increased consumption. Mid 20 year olds have reduced consumption by 10%.

Many regional drivers at play. Spending in Victoria the weakest followed by NSW. WA, NT, and Tas performing better.

[see weed]

Recession? LOL. I didn't see any recession at Sylvia Park in the weekend. All I saw was 1000s of people shopping. Hallensteins weekend turnover was approx Fri $50,000, Sat $47,000 and Sun their target $37,000 but I left there at 2pm. Glasson's were doing better... Approx $60,000 Fri. and they were meeting there targets on Sat and Sun, which I assume would be approx $60,000 per day. Probably due to Black Friday and leading into the Christmas shop. All will be revealed good bad or average in two weeks at AGM 12/12/23, not to forget ex div. of 24c next week 7/12/23 :t_up:

[bull....]

big fall in apparel :scared:

Proffit says a closer look at the retail sectors shows annual spending growth so far in December ranged from a positive pattern for Bookshops (+1.7%), Toy/Gaming stores (+2.4%) and Chemists (+8.2%) to negative patterns for Clothing/Footwear stores (-9.2%) and a large grouping of Hardware & Furniture merchants (-6.9%).

https://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/BU2312/S00125/pre-christmas-spending-build-up-begins-but-patterns-are-mixed-across-retail-sectors.htm

[see weed]

big fall in apparel :scared:

Proffit says a closer look at the retail sectors shows annual spending growth so far in December ranged from a positive pattern for Bookshops (+1.7%), Toy/Gaming stores (+2.4%) and Chemists (+8.2%) to negative patterns for Clothing/Footwear stores (-9.2%) and a large grouping of Hardware & Furniture merchants (-6.9%).

https://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/BU2312/S00125/pre-christmas-spending-build-up-begins-but-patterns-are-mixed-across-retail-sectors.htm

Thanks bull. That is good to get that out of the way, so no surprises tomorrow for us sharetrader and stock talk followers. We now know clothing down about 9.2% hopefully will not have too much effect on sp now that we all know.:mellow:

[Sideshow Bob]

The drop in spending might be beneficial for HGL.

Just depends how much "trading down" compared to "trading out"......

[see weed]

Good luck all holders. I couldn't help myself and must be a gambler and bought more yesterday under $5.56 :)

[Greekwatchdog]

For Bar Review

We upgrade Hallenstein Glasson (HLG) to NEUTRAL from UNDERPERFORM as HLG is trading in-line with our valuation after a recent derating in the share price, reflecting market acceptance of a more subdued near-term earnings outlook. At its annual shareholder meeting, HLG's 19-week FY24 trading update (to early December) indicated group revenue declined versus the prior period, noting a slight improvement since the last update in October. This is in-line with our thesis that HLG is affected by challenging macroeconomic conditions for consumers, and market expectations have softened. HLG now trades near the middle of its retailer peer group, and in-line with its long-run median PE multiple. While we still expect further mid-single-digit year on year revenue declines through to mid-2025, and acknowledge a very challenging near-term operating environment, risk-reward appears more balanced as: (1) self-help actions are available, and (2) the Glassons Australia expansion opportunity remains intact.

What's changed?
Earnings: FY24–FY26 underlying NPAT slightly reduces by -2% to -4%, primarily driven by foreign currency movements
Target price: Reduces to NZ$5.40 from NZ$5.45 (~-1%), reflecting near-term earnings reductions
Rating: Upgrade to NEUTRAL from UNDERPERFORM.
Revenue decline in-line with our expectations
Group revenue for the first 19 weeks of FY24 dropped -4.7% (FB 1H24E: ~-4%) versus the prior period as consumer discretionary spending was affected by cost of living challenges. This theme is consistent with ANZ retailer peers' performance. Trading has improved from the start of the year when a warm winter affected seasonal product sales. HLG noted a more positive reaction to the new season range but uncertainty remains high, with ​​​​​​​three of the four largest trading weeks of the year yet to go.


Gross margin resilience primarily supported by supplier renegotiations
HLG noted an improvement in the year-to-date group gross margin despite a higher USD exchange rate. This was driven primarily by: (1) supplier negotiations, and (2) normalising freight costs. The gross margin recovery appeared to be relatively stronger in the NZ businesses (Glassons NZ, Hallenstein Brothers). We anticipate gross margin pressure reduces marginally as forward exchange rates have improved slightly since our last earnings revisions, but a lower NZDUSD forward rate is a net negative for margin growth.


More imputation credits going forward
A reallocation of intercompany charges should increase imputation credits available for NZ tax resident shareholders (we estimate an average ~75% imputation rate over FY24–FY26).

HLG now trades in-line with our valuation
We upgrade HLG to NEUTRAL from UNDERPERFORM. Following recent share price weakness, HLG now trades in-line with our valuation and the market appears to be more realistic in its expectations for near-term earnings. Further downside risk to revenue in the near term may be partly offset by: (1) a faster than expected roll-out of Glassons Australia, noting a management target of ~50 stores within three to four years versus our forecast for 44 stores by FY27; (2) Hallenstein Brothers showing signs of a turnaround after adjusting its product range; and (3) improved gross margins due to Glassons supplier renegotiations (which is offsetting NZD weakness), and normalising freight costs.


Our target price reduces marginally to NZ$5.40 (~-1% from NZ$5.45), reflecting a -1% reduction in both our relative multiple and DCF valuations, both driven by slight earnings downgrades.

[see weed]

Lot of down talk last few weeks. Anyone else get back into HLG from the one year low of $5.10 to $5.30 bracket. Good on you if you did.

[bull....]

Lot of down talk last few weeks. Anyone else get back into HLG from the one year low of $5.10 to $5.30 bracket. Good on you if you did.

not on my radar yet. stats nz reported today electronic retail down in december ( pretty bad when you consider all the immigration ) and apparel category down as well.

[thedrunkfish]

not on my radar yet. stats nz reported today electronic retail down in december ( pretty bad when you consider all the immigration ) and apparel category down as well.

HLG has traditionally done well even in challenging environments. Hopefully I can pick up a few more on sale.

[Muse]

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/411688

Resignation of Group Chief Executive Officer
The Company advises the resignation of Group CEO Stuart Duncan, effective 17th November 2023.
Chairman of Directors Warren Bell said that the Company acknowledges the contribution Stuart has made to the Group and in particular his stewardship over the very challenging period dealing with the impact of Covid. Mr Duncan takes up a new role in late November and we wish him success in his new endeavors.
The Board will commence a search for a replacement.

Warren Bell
Chairman


Wonder where the grass is greener

Farmers.....

[nztx]

A nice small tight share register .. a sniff in by any of the large funds could seriously pop the SP lid off the HLG jar IMO :)

[Sideshow Bob]

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/426618

Trading Update and Profit Forecast
The Company advises that unaudited total Group sales for the six-month period ended 1 February 2024 were $223.0 million, compared to $223.3 million in the prior corresponding period.
Group unaudited net profit after tax (NPAT) is projected to be in the range of $21.0 million to $21.5 million, an increase of approximately 2% over the prior year ($20.8 million).
The balance sheet for the Group remains strong and stock levels continue to be well controlled contributing to improved gross margin for the half.
A full announcement with six months financial statements including dividend declaration will be released to the market on 28 March 2024.
Chris Kinraid
Group CEO

[850man]

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/426618

Trading Update and Profit Forecast
The Company advises that unaudited total Group sales for the six-month period ended 1 February 2024 were $223.0 million, compared to $223.3 million in the prior corresponding period.
Group unaudited net profit after tax (NPAT) is projected to be in the range of $21.0 million to $21.5 million, an increase of approximately 2% over the prior year ($20.8 million).
The balance sheet for the Group remains strong and stock levels continue to be well controlled contributing to improved gross margin for the half.
A full announcement with six months financial statements including dividend declaration will be released to the market on 28 March 2024.
Chris Kinraid
Group CEO

Basically landing it where they said they would.

[Rawz]

Great result in current climate!

[winner69]

Amazing update from HLG

Sales about the same as pcp and profit up

I should not have thought the worst

[see weed]

Amazing update from HLG

Sales about the same as pcp and profit up

I should not have thought the worst
yeah, don't know what all the fuss was about, so looking forward to probably another 24c div at over 8% yld. might have to top up more before the heard wakes up:t_up:

[Muse]

A very robust result - trading must have roared back from 14 dec to end of January! Impressive

[winner69]

A very robust result - trading must have roared back from 14 dec to end of January! Impressive

From -5% to zero in couple months impressive

Print new outfits to go to Taylor's gigs

[Muse]

From -5% to zero in couple months impressive

Print new outfits to go to Taylor's gigs

can't underestimate swifty

none the less a good pick up in aussie retail last month
https://kepleranalytics.com/week-ending-18-02-2024/
https://www.westpaciq.com.au/economics/2024/02/westpac-card-tracker-15-02-2024

likewise good pick up in glassons.com aussie traffic on pcp ( a good leading indicator)

disc: holder

[see weed]

can't underestimate swifty

none the less a good pick up in aussie retail last month
https://kepleranalytics.com/week-ending-18-02-2024/
https://www.westpaciq.com.au/economics/2024/02/westpac-card-tracker-15-02-2024

likewise good pick up in glassons.com aussie traffic on pcp ( a good leading indicator)

disc: holderAlso likewise, a good pick up in sp in last 8 weeks. It appears an uptrend is forming from early January.

[DarkHorse]

Hi, been a while since I looked at HLG. Impressed with how they've weathered the storm. Potential of Glassons Australia continued rollout to give them solid growth - while still trading on deep value CF multiples. But seems slow atm. What are your expectations for Glassons store openings over the next 3-5 years ST members? (Any broker eps projections also appreciated)

[DarkHorse]

Hi, been a while since I looked at HLG. Impressed with how they've weathered the storm. Potential of Glassons Australia continued rollout to give them solid growth - while still trading on deep value CF multiples. But seems slow atm. What are your expectations for Glassons store openings over the next 3-5 years ST members? (Any broker eps projections also appreciated)

Would love to hear any thoughts on whether there's likely to be pickup in Glassons roll out in Australia?

[Rawz]

Would love to hear any thoughts on whether there's likely to be pickup in Glassons roll out in Australia?
My 2cents is that there will be continued methodical rollout.

Continued sensible capital allocation to store rollout and high dividends to shareholders.

Company has been around for 90 years and will continue to be around for next 90 years.

So my guess is there won’t be a rapid expansion of 100 stores in 2 years type thing

[winner69]

My 2cents is that there will be continued methodical rollout.

Continued sensible capital allocation to store rollout and high dividends to shareholders.

Company has been around for 90 years and will continue to be around for next 90 years.

So my guess is there won’t be a rapid expansion of 100 stores in 2 years type thing

Hallensteins been around for 150 years rawz …..Bendix opened his 1st in Dunedin in 1873

Glassons started in 1918

[Rawz]

Hallensteins been around for 150 years rawz …..Bendix opened his 1st in Dunedin in 1873

Glassons started in 1918
Incredible.

[DarkHorse]

Incredible.

Indeed.

RE GLASSONS AUSTRALIA GROWTH POTENTIAL:
It's interesting to see that although the Australian store rollout has been gradual - from 30 stores in 2018 to 36 today, sales growth has been exceptional, with good margins:
2018 $78m 2019 $89m 2020 $97m 2021 $134m 2022 $157m 2023 $191m
(NPAT $17m cf Glassons NZ 35 stores, sales $112m, NPAT $11m; Hallensteins 45 stores, sales $106m, NPAT $4m).

The interesting question for me is what Glassons Australia sales and npat could be in 3-5 years? Presumably growth in sales per store will plateau given already much higher than NZ, with rollout adding possibly $1m pa to npat over decades given 5x population in Australia and economies of scale?
Complete guess...would anyone more familiar with the company care to comment and do some crystal ball gazing?

[see weed]

Also likewise, a good pick up in sp in last 8 weeks. It appears an uptrend is forming from early January.
It looks to be still up trending for the last 10 weeks, from the low of $5.10 on Wednesday 3/1/24 at 10.30 am. The sp closed at $5.22 the same day and is now knocking on the $6 door. It might have something to do with the div announcement coming up on Thursday 28/3/24 which I am forecasting to be in the range of 22c to 24c but will not be surprised if it was held as the last one of 24c.:t_up:

[see weed]

Wow it just hit $6.10. Now up $1 from 3/1/24. :)

[winner69]

Wow it just hit $6.10. Now up $1 from 3/1/24. :)

And heading back to 7 bucks plus

[Rawz]

DarkHorse buying up big

[Muse]

Would love to hear any thoughts on whether there's likely to be pickup in Glassons roll out in Australia?

at the end of FY17 Glassons AU had 28 stores - now they have around 36 - so around 1.5 net new stores per annum. Covid probably slowed the pace of new store openings. In the last two financial years they have really focused on renovating and expanding their existing stores in Australia and spent considerable capex doing so and at this half year period probably mostly done with the Australian store refresh & extension programme, and could possibly turn their attention to more rollouts. At the AGM at the end of last year if I recall correctly there was a comment made about a store # goal over the next few years (can't remember exactly what it was) but it implied - if it was true or I heard correctly -a pickup in new store openings in the near/medium term. The Board appears to be conservative on new store openings, more so than James Glasson (CEO of Glassons AU), and don't know where the new group CEO sits yet. The store outlook in NZ for both brands is flat to probably net declining in the near term as trading conditions languish on this side of the ditch.

have picked up a few positions in retail stocks again this year incl. HLG acquiring a respectable holding in mid february, to compliment the Uni share I bought (again) last year which have been on a tear. I expect HLG's GP margins will have improved 200-300bps on last year's 1H with lower freight prices and a (slowly) stabilising fx environment. CODB inflation per ave store looks to have slowed in 1H as the business likely had some one off costs in 2H FY23 and undertook some cost management. The new transfer pricing policy a big help too (something I encouraged the business to do two years ago), should result in the average effective tax rate dropping from 29.4% last year to ~28.5% this year (a 500-600k increase to NPAT pa) but more importantly will allow much improved levels of imputation credits available going forward (assume ~75% imputed vs 56%, 0%, 53% across 1H FY22, 2H FY22, 1H FY23 respectively).

that said the trading outlook is inconsistent and patchy across both geographies. NZ we read about, and australia has benefitted in the last 12 months from an unexpected surge in migration particularly amongst students. I saw a report that spending by international students accounted for more than half of AU's economic growth in 2023, which warned that the new sharp increase is visa refusal rates will be a headwind to growth in 2024 across retail and the wider economy. A new migration policy was released in December that called for a 38% reduction in migration going forward.

so going forward hard to predict - lots of positives and negatives - but that's the way isn't it.

[Muse]

few other bits and bobs people may find of interest

* Glassons NZ google search trends (rolling ave 4 weeks): down 8.5% on prior year
* Glassons AU google search trends (rolling ave 4 weeks): up 7.6% on p/yr (declining from +20% last Jan.)
* Glassons Similarweb traffic rank for Australian Fashion & Apparel in Feb24 up to 20, vs ~25ave over preceeding 12 months

apparel retail in AU remains as competitive as ever. Perfect Stranger & supre growing strongly, princess polly holding steady. Temu and more relevantly Shein having absolute break outs in the industry - shein on track to do A$1bn in sales in australia in the coming 12 months. slightly different product offering but close enough and value focused.

flash industry data - first few weeks of March have been reasonably tough - highlighting the inconsistent trading environment. plus swifty tour done!
https://kepleranalytics.com/week-ending-10-03-2024/
https://www.westpaciq.com.au/economics/2024/03/westpac-card-tracker-1-march-2024

[DarkHorse]

at the end of FY17 Glassons AU had 28 stores - now they have around 36 - so around 1.5 net new stores per annum. Covid probably slowed the pace of new store openings. In the last two financial years they have really focused on renovating and expanding their existing stores in Australia and spent considerable capex doing so and at this half year period probably mostly done with the Australian store refresh & extension programme, and could possibly turn their attention to more rollouts. At the AGM at the end of last year if I recall correctly there was a comment made about a store # goal over the next few years (can't remember exactly what it was) but it implied - if it was true or I heard correctly -a pickup in new store openings in the near/medium term. The Board appears to be conservative on new store openings, more so than James Glasson (CEO of Glassons AU), and don't know where the new group CEO sits yet. The store outlook in NZ for both brands is flat to probably net declining in the near term as trading conditions languish on this side of the ditch.

have picked up a few positions in retail stocks again this year incl. HLG acquiring a respectable holding in mid february, to compliment the Uni share I bought (again) last year which have been on a tear. I expect HLG's GP margins will have improved 200-300bps on last year's 1H with lower freight prices and a (slowly) stabilising fx environment. CODB inflation per ave store looks to have slowed in 1H as the business likely had some one off costs in 2H FY23 and undertook some cost management. The new transfer pricing policy a big help too (something I encouraged the business to do two years ago), should result in the average effective tax rate dropping from 29.4% last year to ~28.5% this year (a 500-600k increase to NPAT pa) but more importantly will allow much improved levels of imputation credits available going forward (assume ~75% imputed vs 56%, 0%, 53% across 1H FY22, 2H FY22, 1H FY23 respectively).

that said the trading outlook is inconsistent and patchy across both geographies. NZ we read about, and australia has benefitted in the last 12 months from an unexpected surge in migration particularly amongst students. I saw a report that spending by international students accounted for more than half of AU's economic growth in 2023, which warned that the new sharp increase is visa refusal rates will be a headwind to growth in 2024 across retail and the wider economy. A new migration policy was released in December that called for a 38% reduction in migration going forward.

so going forward hard to predict - lots of positives and negatives - but that's the way isn't it.

Thanks Muse, I appreciate your helpful insights. Obviously HLG has pretty good cashflow for the price, so whether they can get a good ongoing ROIC through Glassons Australia rollout is the key question for long-term prospects. Haven't bought any yet though - stocks always rise while I contemplate buying - and fall while I consider selling!

[Rawz]

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/428314

CEO selling half his holding. hmmm

[IAK]

Building a 'mega' deck?
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/428314

CEO selling half his holding. hmmm

[Rawz]

Building a 'mega' deck?

Yes this is a big job. Deck, spa pool, pergola, built in 12 burner gas bbq and beer fridge.

Fair enough selling a few shares. Work hard play hard.

A shame he had to sell at the bottom thou? or?

[Muse]

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/428314

CEO selling half his holding. hmmm

EX ceo - now at Farmers

[Rawz]

EX ceo - now at Farmers

Oh I see. No cause for alarm then

[Count von Count]

Was at Melbourne Central on Saturday, shopping for my teenagers.

Every women’s clothing outlet had a minimum of 20% off… except Glassons, which had nothing advertising a sale.

At or around 10:30am, there were between 0-1 customers in all women’s clothing stores… except Glassons, where there were 6.

It was an interesting contrast…

[alokdhir]

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/428724

Great Results and super well managed company ...No doubt !! Very impressive


PS : Only problem ....they called themselves HGH on Top of results ...hopefully. they dont want to become one ...lol

[winner69]

Wow ... great start to 2nd half of year

Group sales for the first seven weeks +8.3% ahead of the same period last year.

Along with a 24 cent divie this news should put a rocket under the share price

[Rawz]

HLG and BGP performing so well in these hard times compared to WHS, KMD & MHJ

[see weed]

yeah, don't know what all the fuss was about, so looking forward to probably another 24c div at over 8% yld. might have to top up more before the heard wakes up:t_up:
From 22/2/24. Thank you see weed, I never doubted HLG and am not surprised with 24c dividend. Am happy with my holding which is up 4.5 times the dividend amount:cool:. Don't forget today is the last trading day before end of financial year.

[Muse]

Good result, albeit saved by a gross margin expansion of 235bps (had GP% remained the same NPAT would have been $17.4m all else equal).

Flat sales but not a bad result in this environment, and some variation within the group. Hallenstein sales per average store down 0.6%, Glassons NZ down 4.4%, Glassons AU up 1.2% or around 2.7% in AUD (average FX moved unfavorably from the PCP). Other income (rent received and interest income) up $392k.

GP margins the main story here. Lower freight costs probably the biggest driver (and have gone up a bit post balance date with all the bother in the middle east), but mgmt also make reference to some proactive steps they've made on sourcing (& probably pricing). This is most evident in Hallensteins although all divisions made gains on 1H FY23, and both Glassons AU and Hallensteins margins were higher than 2H FY23 which was the period when the uptick began. Glassons NZ while on 1H23 improved saw their margins decline from 2H FY23 (although its margins traditionally fall from over this period), and are a bit of a niggle for the group, experiencing long term declines. The chart below tells a good story. Glassons AU looks to be running where it should be, Hallensteins not far away from where it should be, but Glassons NZ still well below its historical margins. They'll be reasons for that but I won't speculate on it here. 2H margins tend to be a bit higher than 1H as well all things equal, particularly for Glassons NZ.

15013


Cost of doing business (incl. lease interest) per average store up 5.2%, however a decline from the 2H FY23 rate of 8.2%. The main driver to that is total occupancy costs (all up rental and lease expense) per ave store up 7.8%, largely reflecting continued store growth in Australia where the stores are larger and a refurbishment programme that seems to be expanding the average size of the stores. I forget when the 2nd AU distribution centre was launched so maybe a bit of that as well.

Tax expense as % of PBT 29.2%, only a smidge down on prior year 1H of 29.4%. Would have expected more of a decline given the transfer pricing programme bringing AU profits (where corp tax is 30%) into NZ where it is 28%. Probably reflects the underlying deterioration of Glassons NZ and Hallenstein profitability in NZ.

Cashflow was excellent, stock down, and cash up. Inventory looks very lean and while I love the inventory turnover wouldn't be surprise if it corrects. Capex (store refresh and refits) high at $9m.

Dividend identical to last years, both in terms of declared, IC's attached, rwt deducted, and thus gross and net. With regard to the level of imputation, there appears to be a mistake in either the mgmt commentary or the dividend notice. The mgmt commentary says imputed at 45%, the distribution notice implies a 53% level of imputation (section 3 of dist. notice talks to 14.87%, which divided by 28%, is a 53% level of imputation). This is the same as last year 1H FY23. Recall that in 2H FY23 the level of imputation rose to 80.6%, giving a full year imputation of 67.5%.

In terms of outlook, I reckon a good placeholder is ~$11m npat for 2H FY24. February and March, while well up at ~8.3%, are not big trading months in the 2H. February traditionally the weakest month (of February to July), and March a little bit below average. So a lot of water to go under. But a good start.

Last year's 2H dividend of 24cps (and similar imputation profile) a reasonable proxy to work with as well. That would imply 48dps declared, 11.2cps of imputation credits (though there could be some downside risk to this if last years imputation did not prevail), giving 59.2 gross, with 8.3cps of RWT deducted (which will flex up if 2H ICs dont come through).

Just my thoughts. Do your own research, & come to your own views. Retail remains a fickle beast.

[Antipodean]

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/428724
...
PS : Only problem ....they called themselves HGH on Top of results ...hopefully. they dont want to become one ...lol

HGH = Hallenstein Glasson Holdings Limited = the company name so not a mistake.
Just not their NZX ticker.

Agree would be better to avoid any confusion that the two are related though.

[winner69]

Muse ….good stuff there

Glassons AU increased market share as well

The 45% partially imputed comment comes from computation credits of only 4.2 cents being applied instead of a full 9.33 cents if they had enough credits…. So 4.2/9.33=45%.

Suppose how you interpret the words ‘partially imputed’ but they haven’t made a mistake.

[Snow Leopard]

...
Dividend identical to last years, both in terms of declared, IC's attached, rwt deducted, and thus gross and net. With regard to the level of imputation, there appears to be a mistake in either the mgmt commentary or the dividend notice. The mgmt commentary says imputed at 45%, the distribution notice implies a 53% level of imputation (section 3 of dist. notice talks to 14.87%, which divided by 28%, is a 53% level of imputation).
...

Almost 45% of the 24c [ 10.7774c ] is imputed giving you 4.1912c of imps.

4.1912c of imps is 14.87% of the gross amount [ 24c + 4.1912c ].

So all is good, but confusing.

[Muse]

Almost 45% of the 24c [ 10.7774c ] is imputed giving you 4.1912c of imps.

4.1912c of imps is 14.87% of the gross amount [ 24c + 4.1912c ].

So all is good, but confusing.

Got it, per edited post below. thanks.

[Muse]

Muse ….good stuff there

Glassons AU increased market share as well

The 45% partially imputed comment comes from computation credits of only 4.2 cents being applied instead of a full 9.33 cents if they had enough credits…. So 4.2/9.33=45%.

Suppose how you interpret the words ‘partially imputed’ but they haven’t made a mistake.

yes got it now. I had calculated in haste the level as 14.87%/28% = 53% giving the level imputed. But adjusting the formula to gross up, would have taken ICs per share to 9.333333cps, taking gross dividend to 33.3333. and thus the 4.2IC/ps divided by the 9.33333 is the 45%. got it.

[Snow Leopard]

You confuse, Muse.

None, absolutely none, of the calculations with the impute, or associated, word near by take any account of any Witholding Taxes.

Clear you mind, chant a few oms, and PM me if you still can not see the true way.

[Muse]

You confuse, Muse.

None, absolutely none, of the calculations with the impute, or associated, word near by take any account of any Witholding Taxes.

Clear you mind, chant a few oms, and PM me if you still can not see the true way.

Yes I realise that and went to some lengths in my initial reply to winner on that. Have subsequently edited that however to reflect the appropriate maths.

[see weed]

Four and a half trading days before 24c ex div next Wednesday 10th April:).