HLG - Hallenstein Glasson

[percy]

Would be interesting to understand what proportion of sales are in areas that you mention have limited competition. My bet the bulk of the revenue is coming through sales in major centres but I could be wrong ?

You could be right,but after paying Mall % rents and other horrendous overheads the largest profits will be coming from stores outside of Malls and online sales.

[boysy]

Issue will be they are locked into long term leases with malls in major centres so they either choose to go online in the major centres or live with the status quo and pay more and more for rent in malls with likely compressed margins as a result of more price competition with new players. The sustainability of the divi is the big risk here and once that is lowered the SP will react accordingly.

[boysy]

Research indicates wave of foreign retailers will grow - CBRE research

http://www.propbd.co.nz/research-indicates-wave-foreign-retailers-will-grow/

[Jantar]

Would be interesting to understand what proportion of sales are in areas that you mention have limited competition. My bet the bulk of the revenue is coming through sales in major centres but I could be wrong ?
No you are not wrong. But even in a major center like Auckland, is someone going to make a special trip to a particular mall just because Zara has a store there?

How many malls are there in Auckland?
How many have both HLG and these new brands?
How many other clothing stores are there in those malls?

Overall, the difference that these new brands can make will be tiny.

[boysy]

With respect jantar people wait hours in lines to enter these shops having travelled from all over Auckland (read news articles from opening of h & m and Zara this week at Sylvia park)Might be 6 main shopping malls in Auckland with a similar number of suburban malls dotted around. I think you will find the impact of trading on the likes of HLG, country road, witchery etc will be impacted big time. Why would you now go to HLG if cheaper, better quality and range of products were available in the same mall?

[winner69]

Research indicates wave of foreign retailers will grow - CBRE research

http://www.propbd.co.nz/research-indicates-wave-foreign-retailers-will-grow/

Interest driven by waves of foreign visitors

[boysy]

Mr Moricz said rental pressure could push some local retailers back to secondary malls, especially in the sectors where the international brands were trying to dominate, such as fashion.

[winner69]

Anecdotal - chat from David Jones staff

They not doing that well as they stocking the wrong stuff - they just don't understand what NZ woman want - thinking they just like aussies

Farmers across the road who were going to be smashed doing quite well I'm told

[macduffy]

Anecdotal - chat from David Jones staff

They not doing that well as they stocking the wrong stuff - they just don't understand what NZ woman want - thinking they just like aussies

Farmers across the road who were going to be smashed doing quite well I'm told

A little off the HLG track but my scouts tell me that David Jones is also missing out on children's wear. Babies, yes, but nothing after that for the primary school- preteen cohort. Farmers seem to have the running here, too.

[Snow Leopard]

I see what people on both sides of the discussion are getting at.

I doubt if the opening of H&M in Auckland on Saturday will see much of a reduction in sales for Hallenstein, Glassons and any other bits of empire. (You can point at the Herald article at the weekend mentioning people queuing down the street to get in at opening if you like).
...


With respect jantar people wait hours in lines to enter these shops having travelled from all over Auckland (read news articles from opening of h & m and Zara this week at Sylvia park)...

With all due respect an opening is not an everyday occurrence.

Here in the the civilized world we have had all these shops that some of you guys out beyond the Tasman are getting so excited about.

Occasionally a new one opens, they queue to have a look inside and maybe buy something and then it settles down as just another shop, some of which are not turning a profit (location and the Malaysian economy is a little down).

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[Jaa]

There seems a clear division in thought between older and younger posters here, with plenty of good points all round. One does need to keep in mind that HLG customers are mostly young(ish) and love shopping online though.

Competition will definitely make HLG a better, sharper operator which will help them in Australia where they have struggled in a more competitive environment. But how would HLG's profits look if you took their Australian margins and applied them to NZ?

Dato Tiger, in the large tropical island where I reside, Uniqlo often has massive displays of jackets and jerseys perfect for the Japanese or NZ market and hopelessly inappropriate for the tropics. So it is true HLG will always have something of a local advantage. Though H&M on the other hand is near unbeatable on price, environmental consciousness and style/practicality.

[percy]

Jaa the big profit in retail fashion is selling something else.You go into the store to buy a pair of trousers,the gifted sales person has just the shirt to go with them,and the jersey and jacket,and with that jacket another shirt goes well with the trousers you are already wearing,giving you really three outfits.And by the way I will sign you up for our loyalty scheme.And here is a Welcome to our store $25 gift voucher you can use at any of our stores next time you require any clothing.Yes you can use it online too.!
Any new shop on the block is going to find it very difficult to attract gifted salespeople away from their existing employer.

[Raz]

Anecdotal - chat from David Jones staff

They not doing that well as they stocking the wrong stuff - they just don't understand what NZ woman want - thinking they just like aussies

Farmers across the road who were going to be smashed doing quite well I'm told

Well they were very busy last Saturday although it is clear they have stock levels wrong..prices high for NZ and many clothes tried on not purchased...however there was one summer dress my daughter wanted at $795 and someone else got the last one..the one on display was fawned over by every second young women passing by however they asked in vain over stock... wife purchased zip as prices higher then D Jones in Melbourne with less variety. Menswear is a joke.

Dodged a bullet thanks to D Jones bad management and had a couple of more beers later given the savings on the family budget:-)

[Subway]

Two points: Just because a company has been trading for 130 odd years, doesn't mean it has a bright future (Kodak anyone...?)

Also, Zara and H&M are international chains that can have current trends in stores within weeks, HLG's current business model works on seasons, if the newcomers can provide in trend well before HLG at the same, or cheaper price point, then yes, people will travel to a Zara/H&M.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-10-03/rebel-teens-are-killing-america-s-clothing-giants

[Beagle]

Kodak a very poor analogy in my opinion because that's a complete technology change and with all due respect to the link you provided I think Kiwi's buying patterns are very different to American's.

Someone mentioned a while back the fresh European contemporary styling of the refreshed St Lukes shop of Glassons. I would encourage people to visit that shop to form their own opinion. Its absolutely stunning and both my twenty something daughters were really impressed.

Its exactly this companies ability to adapt and change as well as their well entrenched position in many prime malls throughout N.Z. which will ensure a solid future for HLG.

I'm no fashion hound by any stretch of the imagination but I believe most people head down to their local mall and try clothes on and buy what they like and for this reason the newcomers will have very little effect.

[JeremyALD]

With all due respect an opening is not an everyday occurrence.

Here in the the civilized world we have had all these shops that some of you guys out beyond the Tasman are getting so excited about.

Occasionally a new one opens, they queue to have a look inside and maybe buy something and then it settles down as just another shop, some of which are not turning a profit (location and the Malaysian economy is a little down).

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

I think topshop is a good example. Everyone was super excited when it opened and queued up, now it's doing well but by no means is taking all the foot traffic from queens street retail. In fact sometimes it's pretty quiet too.

The fact is Sylvia Park is miles away from a lot of Auckland. They'd have to be bloody good to get people to drive all the way out from areas such as West Auckland and North Shore to even consider the trip. Men's clothes are much of a muchness to I might add.

[Sideshow Bob]

I suspect the Kodak analogy from Subway was about not knowing the market. Kodak invented the digital camera - and thought no one would want them. In the end was a large part in killing them.

There is undoubtedly examples of retailers entering new markets and getting things wrong. I would suspect that the likes of Zara and H&M are so successful internationally because they can adapt to various markets.

My thoughts would be more retailers, international players with sophisticated supply chains and latest fashions will undoubtedly have a negative effect on incumbents. But may also be the opportunity for HGL to raise its game further and take utilise it's entrenched position and deeper local knowledge.

[winner69]

Anybody been in a Postie+ or a t&t store lately (lots of them around)

Both have been able to adapt to market changes over the years and seem to be doing quite well these days ............. (although Postie+ needed a shining knight to sort them out a few years ago but as in Bob's words they utilised its entrenched position and deeper local knowledge)

[winner69]

According to Stats NZ the clothing and footwear retail sector in NZ is a $3.5 billion market. No doubt the targeted market segment for H&m etc which is 'fast fashion' is smaller

HLG Group NZ sales are about $180m - only 5% overall market share (they do sell shoes I think?)

So H&M and others will be coming from many players in the market - and remember the pie is likely to get bigger

[boysy]

Winner69 the examples you have given are mere shells of what they once were. I just cannot fathom why buyers would choose HLG when other options are better in every respect (price,style,sizing etc). Its simply disingeniuos to try and write off competition in light of their intent to aggressively expand into HLG patch. I think sometimes there is a serious disconnect between what companies investors invest in and those products those companies use. With HLG being a divi play any competition will start to impact margins and level of profitability i wouldn't be so sure the divi yield can be kept up, but hey when it starts going down that higher and higher divi yield will be mentioned time and time again (not the ongoing likelihood of maintaining this divi ).

Who on this thread would continue to shop at HLG instead of the competitors (assuming they had the option to shop at H&M, Zara etc) and what would be the rational this is an important question ?

[winner69]

Winner69 the examples you have given are mere shells of what they once were. I just cannot fathom why buyers would choose HLG when other options are better in every respect (price,style,sizing etc). Its simply disingeniuos to try and write off competition in light of their intent to aggressively expand into HLG patch. I think sometimes there is a serious disconnect between what companies investors invest in and those products those companies use. With HLG being a divi play any competition will start to impact margins and level of profitability i wouldn't be so sure the divi yield can be kept up, but hey when it starts going down that higher and higher divi yield will be mentioned time and time again (not the ongoing likelihood of maintaining this divi ).

Who on this thread would continue to shop at HLG instead of the competitors (assuming they had the option to shop at H&M, Zara etc) and what would be the rational this is an important question ?

Just pointing out that many NZ retailers have a track record of adapting to market 'shocks'/ changes .....and probably saying that incumbents won't roll over and die as you (?) and some others seem to be saying.

Probably not part of Hallensteins target market these days but did get a few decent sweatshirts from them last year but would go back again.

Boysy - If you were the CEO of HLG what would you be doing at the moment (and diversifying into selling Trilogy stuff not an option)

[winner69]

HLG are renowned for the scarcity of their announcements so we won't know how successfully they have countered this invasion of global behemoths for some time

But I be watching the squiggly lines on the chart closely - just in case market sentiment turns sour

[Hectorplains]

Jaa the big profit in retail fashion is selling something else.You go into the store to buy a pair of trousers,the gifted sales person has just the shirt to go with them,and the jersey and jacket,and with that jacket another shirt goes well with the trousers you are already wearing,giving you really three outfits.And by the way I will sign you up for our loyalty scheme.And here is a Welcome to our store $25 gift voucher you can use at any of our stores next time you require any clothing.Yes you can use it online too.!
Any new shop on the block is going to find it very difficult to attract gifted salespeople away from their existing employer.

I've never had anything like this level of sales experience at HLG. Staff are friendly enough but they're pretty much till jockeys.

[percy]

I've never had anything like this level of sales experience at HLG. Staff are friendly enough but they're pretty much till jockeys.

You are so correct.
Very sorry I got mixed up with Ballantynes.!!...lol.

[winner69]

Talking of service (and relevant to Hector's till jockey statement) here is a view from head honcho of Sussan on these global intruders



"They're also more of checkout places rather than information and service places," she said. "So they do have potentially a lot of razzmatazz going on instore, but the actual connection, personal connection to the customer, isn't what it should be, in my mind."

http://www.smh.com.au/business/retail/from-hero-to-zero-did-international-retailers-like-hm-uniqlo-topshop-and-zara-get-australia-wrong-20150206-137zq6.html

[boysy]

Just pointing out that many NZ retailers have a track record of adapting to market 'shocks'/ changes .....and probably saying that incumbents won't roll over and die as you (?) and some others seem to be saying.

Probably not part of Hallensteins target market these days but did get a few decent sweatshirts from them last year but would go back again.

Boysy - If you were the CEO of HLG what would you be doing at the moment (and diversifying into selling Trilogy stuff not an option)

Lower the divi, shore up the balance sheet, focus on the higher margin offerings ie stop trying to flog off $10 tee shirts no one wants. I maintain HLG cannot be everthing to everyone whereas the likes of large multinationals can. Picking the low hanging fruit is long gone in this sector and the clear casualties will be the just jeans, HLG, pumpkin patch and T&Ts of this world. HLG has faired better than the others due to managements ability no doubt about that but i really struggle to see how HLG will grow revenue and retain margins in the current environment.

Back to the vote - who shops at HLG and would they continue to do so if they had the option at shopping at one of the large multinationals ?

[winner69]

Back to the vote - who shops at HLG and would they continue to do so if they had the option at shopping at one of the large multinationals ?

Current score is 1 who shops at Halensteins or liely to do so again

C'mon we need more votes - as Goff would say

[winner69]

Lower the divi, shore up the balance sheet, focus on the higher margin offerings ie stop trying to flog off $10 tee shirts no one wants. I maintain HLG cannot be everthing to everyone whereas the likes of large multinationals can. Picking the low hanging fruit is long gone in this sector and the clear casualties will be the just jeans, HLG, pumpkin patch and T&Ts of this world. HLG has faired better than the others due to managements ability no doubt about that but i really struggle to see how HLG will grow revenue and retain margins in the current environment.

Back to the vote - who shops at HLG and would they continue to do so if they had the option at shopping at one of the large multinationals ?

HLG have a strong Balance Sheet. No debt and relatively low stock levels.

As I said before Tim (biggest shareholder) doesn't seem to have any desire to be a real growth company - but have kept reinvesting in the business to keep it fresh and relevant .....keeping it moving forward steadily .......with aim to maintaing a high return n capital and good sized dividends.

Bit old fashioned eh - in this world where growth growth and even more growth is desired

[winner69]

Wonder how Cotton On are going in NZ

[axe]

They are gobbling away @ market share


Wonder how Cotton On are going in NZ

[boysy]

Just got back from sylvia park hard to believe but still hundreds waiting outside H&M to get let in when sufficient people left the shop (not sure how many were inside but would of been well over 100 and this was at mid day). Equally as crazy was Zara (would estimate well over 200 people in the store - it has a bigger footprint than H&M it must be noted) however most of the other retailers had handful of people in them (counted 6 in Glassons, and 3 in HLG, Just Jeans and country road were just as bad). This being said sylvia park was the busiest i have seen it outside of the boxing day sales so no doubt the hype will die down but more people at the mall doesn't equate to more people browsing based on todays evidence (walking around sylvia park from 12-2pm).

[Arbroath]

Lower the divi, shore up the balance sheet, focus on the higher margin offerings ie stop trying to flog off $10 tee shirts no one wants. I maintain HLG cannot be everthing to everyone whereas the likes of large multinationals can. Picking the low hanging fruit is long gone in this sector and the clear casualties will be the just jeans, HLG, pumpkin patch and T&Ts of this world. HLG has faired better than the others due to managements ability no doubt about that but i really struggle to see how HLG will grow revenue and retain margins in the current environment.

Back to the vote - who shops at HLG and would they continue to do so if they had the option at shopping at one of the large multinationals ?

Boysy you might struggle to see it but HLG are doing it. Managements recent announcement said sales were up 9% ytd across the group and margin is stronger due to Fx hedges rolling off and NZDUSD being back over 70c the past few months. Another major factor is the rejuvenation of Glassons. They've lifted there game markedly when you compare the old v new stores and fresher stock lines.

There have been many good points raised on both sides of the debate about HLG but I'm still cautiously optimistic. The big chains will be very unlikely to go outside Akld, Wgtn, Chch at best. HLG have stores all over the country. The next 12 months will be interesting but my model sees npat of $17-18m on sales up c 5% over the full year. Much can puncture this - weather, FX, new competition etc. on the competition issue I'd be more concerned if someone like Target decided to open an Auckland store.

[Snow Leopard]

There seems a clear division in thought between older and younger posters here...

One of the advantages of being older is that you were once younger and have the great benefit of experience.

When one is younger you think you know it all but once you mature you realise that that was not in fact the case because now you know you know it all.


...
Dato Tiger, in the large tropical island where I reside, Uniqlo often has massive displays of jackets and jerseys perfect for the Japanese or NZ market and hopelessly inappropriate for the tropics. So it is true HLG will always have something of a local advantage. Though H&M on the other hand is near unbeatable on price, environmental consciousness and style/practicality.

And the fascinating thing about all those jackets and jerseys is that they sell. They are bought by those who are off to cooler climates.
I for instance bought a jacket and socks on my way out of Kuala Lumpur when bound for Kyoto last December and they stand a reasonable chance of selling me some more cold climate stuff this December as I leave for India.

Also you need polar fleeces, mittens, a good woolly hat and a good pair of winter sandals if you are going to the cinema in KL.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[Beagle]

Boysy you might struggle to see it but HLG are doing it. Managements recent announcement said sales were up 9% ytd across the group and margin is stronger due to Fx hedges rolling off and NZDUSD being back over 70c the past few months. Another major factor is the rejuvenation of Glassons. They've lifted there game markedly when you compare the old v new stores and fresher stock lines.

There have been many good points raised on both sides of the debate about HLG but I'm still cautiously optimistic. The big chains will be very unlikely to go outside Akld, Wgtn, Chch at best. HLG have stores all over the country. The next 12 months will be interesting but my model sees npat of $17-18m on sales up c 5% over the full year. Much can puncture this - weather, FX, new competition etc. on the competition issue I'd be more concerned if someone like Target decided to open an Auckland store.

Excellent post with which I agree 100%.

[Jantar]

Just got back from sylvia park hard to believe but still hundreds waiting outside H&M to get let in when sufficient people left the shop (not sure how many were inside but would of been well over 100 and this was at mid day). Equally as crazy was Zara (would estimate well over 200 people in the store - it has a bigger footprint than H&M it must be noted) however most of the other retailers had handful of people in them (counted 6 in Glassons, and 3 in HLG, Just Jeans and country road were just as bad). .....
I was in Dunedin yesterday and decided to buy a few things prior to my forthcoming trip to Brisbane. Hallenstiens were my first choice, and for a sunday they were quite busy. I purchased a couple of items there, but they didn't have everything I wanted and I wasn't paying their inflated price for underwear. Next door were Glassons and I noticed quite a few shoppers in there as well. I ended up going to 4 different menswear shops, and HLG were the busiest on the day.

[Onion]

Also you need polar fleeces, mittens, a good woolly hat and a good pair of winter sandals if you are going to the cinema in KL

I was just thinking that I should pack my winter sandals away and find summer ones more suitable to the Wellington climate. :p

[BlackPeter]

For what it is worth ... we are just passing the golden cross - and markets appear to be bullish on retail.

Obviously - retail is a difficult sector, but I'd think it is at least in the short term (until after Christmas) more likely to rise than to drop.

Discl: don't hold HLG, but some other retail stock;

[Beagle]

Wettest spring in Auckland I can ever remember which must have been good for clearing out remaining winter stock. I'd imagine if the sun ever starts shining on a regular basis again people will be out buying a fresh spring / summer outfit or two. Lowest interest rates ever and modest fuel prices leave plenty of spare cash in people's pockets. HLG sounded very positive about their outlook at the recent annual result and I am expecting a very positive profit outlook at their December annual meeting.

[winner69]

Stats NZ Electronic Card Spend for September

Apparel up 5.5% on Sept last year

[Regi]

I've been to H&M and Zara twice in the past few days and thought I'd write about it. (Please note, this was due to meetings at Sylvia Park, not because I'm an H&M/Zara fan boy :D).

Sunday's visit was just ludicrous. Zara was packed with queues almost the length of the shop for fitting rooms and checkout. H&M was even more packed that they had a zig-zag queue of people and nothing short of a small army of security guards at the doors (literally, I counted 8). This of course means nothing besides the hype is real especially as this was the first weekend they had been opened.

My visit yesterday in the middle of the day was much easier to actually take my time to look around and buy some stuff (didn't bother Sunday). Zara has similar vibes to Glasson's and as I and Abroath mentioned earlier, we cannot ignore Glasson's classy revamp which will position it much more in line with Zara (and above H&M) in the consumers mind. HLG's timing of the Glasson's upgrade was also well done as had they done it now consumers would get the feeling they are scurrying around trying to survive now they are here.

Overall I can't complain. Both stores had great prices and a great range of stuff. Just about everything you could need under one roof rather than buying bits here nd there. The hype will naturally die down but personally they will be my new go-to stores when shopping for clothing in that ~HLG price range. Yes I speak from a younger point of view but both my parents were also quite impressed with their offerings. As I think Tiger explained the other day that activity breeds activity, I couldn't help but agree. Seeing Sylvia Park that crazily busy and all the consumers walking around, you can bet they made the trip FOR H&M and Zara but that they will not visit those 2 shops and then leave. I was a perfect example of that. Although HLG wasn't one of the other shops I vistited hehe.

Abroath also mentioned they are unlikely to move out of the main centres of New Zealand... well arguably is this not where the large majority of clothing sales take place? I don't see how that's a positive. HLG may keep some good will with rural/other city consumers but there's low dollar value on that and as I also said earlier, there is little loyalty to chains like HLG so when these consumers venture into main centres they will be buzzing to check out these new retail giants.

At the end of the day, this is not doomsday and they are not going to run every clothing retailer out of business in NZ as I and some others might be making it sound and if anyone is up for the challenge of protecting their income (if not improving it) then I'm sure we would all agree HLG would be a top contender. But I feel the atmosphere here has changed from a "Yay HLG is great" attitude to "No you're wrong and HLG will survive".Went from HLG thriving to surviving talk pretty quick. I have no doubt they will survive but many seem to now be giving reasons as to why they won't go out of business it seems rather than overcome.

Just a healthy debate and bottom line is that HLG's results in the coming months will speak for themselves.

[Snow Leopard]

... As I think Tiger explained the other day that activity breeds activity, ...

Nope, was not me.

Now if it read "inactivity breeds inactivity" then I could take credit for it. :)

Back to the lounger by the pool.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[Regi]

Nope, was not me.

Now if it read "inactivity breeds inactivity" then I could take credit for it. :)

Back to the lounger by the pool.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

Oops... Percy!

[winner69]

Part of Regi earlier post -

.....we cannot ignore Glasson's classy revamp which will position it much more in line with Zara (and above H&M) in the consumers mind. HLG's timing of the Glasson's upgrade was also well done as had they done it now consumers would get the feeling they are scurrying around trying to survive now they are here.

Yes, Hallensteins and Glassons upgraded stores do look pretty good and has been part of their ongoing evolving over the years, no doubt taking into account the entry of these global players.

First Retail guru on radio this morning confirms that 'activity breeds activity' but also notes that the cyclical nature of consumer habits - they are beginning to reengage with physical stores and want a shopping experience (maybe less online stuff)
http://www.radionz.co.nz/audio/player?audio_id=201819760

All good for HLG - as in the past make heaps of money - reinvest quite a bit into giving consumers what they want and give the shareholders a decent dividend

[Beagle]

Agree with Winner. The St Lukes store was completely modernised when I visited with my daughters in January this year and as mentioned previously they were very impressed.

I think they've overhauled a few stores in the last financial year and despite this capex at $5.9m was below depreciation of $7m, (figures to the best of my recollection).

From a dividend hounds perspective, given their long history of high dividend payments and strong outlook I'd say this is a safe as it gets. 30 cps looks safer than any other stock I can think of paying a similar high dividend yield.

[Jay]

Ended up at Sylvia Park today around lunch time. Following my wife around, we went into Zara first looks to be reasonable prices , good range of children clothes as well, not just toddlers etc, (which HLG does not do, possible lost sales thru going to Zara first and also getting what they want for themselves)-both stores very busy (Men's & Women's next to each other with the children's section in the women's store)
H & M still got queues to get in, about a dozen or so both times we went past - my wife does not do queues for shops, so they were busy.
My wife had been in earlier during the week and again seemed good value and selection.

Hallensteins was the busiest I've seen it for quite some time, what was that about activity breeds activity or similar.
The whole mall was busier that I've seen it for sometime. Did not see Glassons really could not tell if there were 5 or 15 in the shop

Will probably go back to Zara at a later date to make some purchases
Disc - past holder

[winner69]

Article on Stuff about pumpkin patch
http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/85604938/pumpkin-patch-in-trading-halt

One of the comments made by somebody who obviously has little time for our Di


"Sad but that's what happens when you don't foresee (or acknowledge) changing market trends. It's no secret but they've been on the skids for a long time and perhaps the 'investor' should have cut and run ages ago. Di Humphreys (x CEO) is a disaster and has created havoc evrywhere she's been. Firstly at Glassons, then Ezibuy, then Pumpkin Patch and is now back at Glassons. Great on rhetoric but poor on delivery/results. Watch out Glassons, I'd have thought you'd learned the first time around!!"

[percy]

Article on Stuff about pumpkin patch
http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/85604938/pumpkin-patch-in-trading-halt

One of the comments made by somebody who obviously has little time for our Di


"Sad but that's what happens when you don't foresee (or acknowledge) changing market trends. It's no secret but they've been on the skids for a long time and perhaps the 'investor' should have cut and run ages ago. Di Humphreys (x CEO) is a disaster and has created havoc evrywhere she's been. Firstly at Glassons, then Ezibuy, then Pumpkin Patch and is now back at Glassons. Great on rhetoric but poor on delivery/results. Watch out Glassons, I'd have thought you'd learned the first time around!!"

Sounds like drivel to me.
HLG could not get her back quick enough.

[Beagle]

Sounds like drivel to me.
HLG could not get her back quick enough.

Agree. The strong improvement in Glassons performance since Di came back speaks for itself.

[JeremyALD]

16 cent dividend coming up in a few weeks. At $2.99 tempting to buy some more. Especially considering another dividend payment usually comes through late April.

[Beagle]

16 cent dividend coming up in a few weeks. At $2.99 tempting to buy some more. Especially considering another dividend payment usually comes through late April.

Hi Jeremy,

Yes I believe the ex date for the 16.5 cps fully imputed dividend is 24 November and you're quite right about the April dividend timeframe too.

[winner69]

Reporter got it wrong - they waiting for Glassons Thursday's special. I'm sure the signs say Hallensteins and Glassons

@NewstalkZBWgtn: Hundreds have camped out on Lambton Quay overnight, awaiting the opening of TopShop in Wellington. Doors open 9am https://t.co/2g4cFZVkni

[stoploss]

Reporter got it wrong - they waiting for Glassons Thursday's special. I'm sure the signs say Hallensteins and Glassons

@NewstalkZBWgtn: Hundreds have camped out on Lambton Quay overnight, awaiting the opening of TopShop in Wellington. Doors open 9am https://t.co/2g4cFZVkni

here is the Herald story on it ..

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11741487

[Beagle]

Bought some more yesterday. I see I was in good company. https://www.nzx.com/companies/HLG/announcements/292281

[see weed]

Agree. The strong improvement in Glassons performance since Di came back speaks for itself.
Where do you think sp will be next week? $3.20 maybe?

[Beagle]

Hi See Weed,

I've been Trumped. Markets didn't behave as I expected after the Trump victory. Anyone's guess where the markets go from here but I would think that HLG should be more resilient than most given its exceptional yield.

I am out of the market at present smelling the roses and patting my dogs. :)

[couta1]

Hi See Weed,

I've been Trumped. Markets didn't behave as I expected after the Trump victory. Anyone's guess where the markets go from here but I would think that HLG should be more resilient than most given its exceptional yield.

I am out of the market at present smelling the roses and patting my dogs. :) Patting and playing with my animals helps me stay in the market(Pet therapy)

[sb9]

https://nzx.com/companies/HLG/announcements/292522

CEO set to retire EOY.

[winner69]

https://nzx.com/companies/HLG/announcements/292522

CEO set to retire EOY.

Good guy that Graeme. Jeez 45 years service in a cut throat industry. He's seen many competitors come and go

Hope Di isn't be considered to take over

[sb9]

Good guy that Graeme

Hope Di isn't be considered to take over

Hmmm...that's my initial thoughts too, after her stint at Pumpkin Patch you gotta wonder if she be given charge....

Disc - non holder

[BlackPeter]

Good guy that Graeme. Jeez 45 years service in a cut throat industry. He's seen many competitors come and go

Hope Di isn't be considered to take over

Why not? I hear she has outstanding references from other clothing retailers :D

[nextbigthing]

From todays announcement;



"Today we have a world class ecommerce offer that is growing at more than 30%


every year and becoming a significant part of the business."














"Graeme leaves the business in a strong position, with current group sales


running 11% above the previous year. Glassons, in particular, is showing


strong results.

[winner69]

From todays announcement;



"Today we have a world class ecommerce offer that is growing at more than 30%


every year and becoming a significant part of the business."














"Graeme leaves the business in a strong position, with current group sales


running 11% above the previous year. Glassons, in particular, is showing


strong results.



After 6 weeks sales +9%

Now +11%

WOW .....WOW .....WOW ......WOW

Roger redoing his sums - NPAT about $22m/$25m?

[JeremyALD]

Hallensteins is certainly a very attractive and well run company. I can't see the yield decreasing over the next two years and that equates to over 20% in returns. It will be interesting to see how the SP reacts when this goes ex dividend. I know there's a lot of people worried about the competition so people may sell at this point, similar to AIR. Time will tell.

[Beagle]

After 6 weeks sales +9%

Now +11%

WOW .....WOW .....WOW ......WOW

Roger redoing his sums - NPAT about $22m/$25m?

Yes, that piqued the hounds interest this morning that's for sure. I had thought the 9% was a bit of an aberration caused by an unseasonable warm start to winter followed by a colder stretch in late August and was anticipating a 5% annual increase so no question about it that's a very impressive year to date sales increase against a backdrop of increased competition form these new fancy overseas brands that are supposed to be having a big negative impact according to some.

I'm blaming see weed for stirring up the dog this morning on this one...couldn't help myself and bought a few at the open. One thing that Trumpageddon has shown us, we need to adapt FAST to unusual changes in market conditions.

[see weed]

Yes, that piqued the hounds interest this morning that's for sure. I had thought the 9% was a bit of an aberration caused by an unseasonable warm start to winter followed by a colder stretch in late August and was anticipating a 5% annual increase so no question about it that's a very impressive year to date sales increase against a backdrop of increased competition form these new fancy overseas brands that are supposed to be having a big negative impact according to some.

I'm blaming see weed for stirring up the dog this morning on this one...couldn't help myself and bought a few at the open. One thing that Trumpageddon has shown us, we need to adapt FAST to unusual changes in market conditions.
All quiet on the western front. Got 5000 to buy at $3.01, but big gap between me and 3.08. Come on Roger, sell me some of yours:).

[percy]

All quiet on the western front. Got 5000 to buy at $3.01, but big gap between me and 3.08. Come on Roger, sell me some of yours:).

You need to get to the market earlier.I brought more at $3.00 this morning.

[Beagle]

You need to get to the market earlier.I brought more at $3.00 this morning.

You're as cunning as a hungry beagle :)

[see weed]

You need to get to the market earlier.I brought more at $3.00 this morning.
This little piggy was late for market. But notice someone just paid $3.08 for some:confused:. Must be an eager hungry beaver. Have noticed sp has been over $5.50 twice in the last 10 years. To other shareholders, what would be your bottom/top dollar to sell if there was a takeover offer put in?

[Jay]

Would someone be interested in buying the footprint in the main, though it seems if another Zara or H & M come along the big mall owners just push someone out to make room.
My wife went into Zara the other day looking for something she had seen the week before, told their stock turnover is every 3 - 4 days.

[percy]

This little piggy was late for market. But notice someone just paid $3.08 for some:confused:. Must be an eager hungry beaver. Have noticed sp has been over $5.50 twice in the last 10 years. To other shareholders, what would be your bottom/top dollar to sell if there was a takeover offer put in?

See weed,
I doubt they will say too much at the agm,however the February update will be a cracker.
$5.50 will be revisited.Next year,the year after???
Just don't know when.
I am in no hurry.!!..lol.
In the meantime the upcoming dividend will more than cover the Christmas Ham,Turkey,Wine,Beer and may be a litttle left over for the New Year lamb chops.!!

[Arbroath]

Yes, that piqued the hounds interest this morning that's for sure. I had thought the 9% was a bit of an aberration caused by an unseasonable warm start to winter followed by a colder stretch in late August and was anticipating a 5% annual increase so no question about it that's a very impressive year to date sales increase against a backdrop of increased competition form these new fancy overseas brands that are supposed to be having a big negative impact according to some.

I'm blaming see weed for stirring up the dog this morning on this one...couldn't help myself and bought a few at the open. One thing that Trumpageddon has shown us, we need to adapt FAST to unusual changes in market conditions.

Likewise I have only factored in a 5% sales lift and a reasonably cautious set of assumptions to get to a NPAT of $17-18m for FY17. As the clocks ticks I'm feeling less cautious about my optimism - maybe they can deliver 7-8% sales uplift across the full year. It is worth remembering that autumn weather is quite key to maintaining good margin into early winter as they make more $$ out of a heavy sweatshirt than a t-shirt (though in recent years seasonality in npat has been less evident).

[see weed]

See weed,
I doubt they will say too much at the agm,however the February update will be a cracker.
$5.50 will be revisited.Next year,the year after???
Just don't know when.
I am in no hurry.!!..lol.
In the meantime the upcoming dividend will more than cover the Christmas Ham,Turkey,Wine,Beer and may be a litttle left over for the New Year lamb chops.!!
Yeah, it's that divy time again, but very hard to get any under $3.07 at the moment. Don't know about $5.50, I would be happy with $3.50 plus div. That would get me a nice big gain...grabbed another 9,000 in last 2 days:t_up:.

[Raz]

Yeah, it's that divy time again, but very hard to get any under $3.07 at the moment. Don't know about $5.50, I would be happy with $3.50 plus div. That would get me a nice big gain...grabbed another 9,000 in last 2 days:t_up:.

Good for you..bought these shares cheap as..nice rise since. Checked out the HG flag ship store downtown Christchurch that opened this week..the fit out is impressive and of an international standard..keep the purchasing focused and on point and they will do well.

[Beagle]

Yeah, it's that divy time again, but very hard to get any under $3.07 at the moment. Don't know about $5.50, I would be happy with $3.50 plus div. That would get me a nice big gain...grabbed another 9,000 in last 2 days:t_up:.

Technically and fundamentally things look very good for HLG and I agree with Raz their new format stores are first class and definitely have a very stylish and upmarket feel. Nice timing of the final divvy to help with Christmas and holiday costs :)

[see weed]

Technically and fundamentally things look very good for HLG and I agree with Raz their new format stores are first class and definitely have a very stylish and upmarket feel. Nice timing of the final divvy to help with Christmas and holiday costs :)
Got a few more today. Only 2 days to go before ex div.If it goes up another 8c tomorrow like it did today, then it would be like a double div:D. $5.50 here we come;). This is better than lotto:).

[Beagle]

Where do you think sp will be next week? $3.20 maybe?

Posted 11 /11/16. Almost there mate :)

[see weed]

.
Posted 11 /11/16. Almost there mate :)
Wouldn't surprise me if it went to $3.30. Fairly tempting at 16.5c payed 2/12/16 for Christmas, then come back from 4 weeks holiday after new year and another biggish div 12 or 13 weeks after that in April. It's a no brainer, could even up that $3.30 to $3.40;). Might be able to squeeze a few more in before it gets to $3.20:).

[Beagle]

.
Wouldn't surprise me if it went to $3.30. Fairly tempting at 16.5c payed 2/12/16 for Christmas, then come back from 4 weeks holiday after new year and another biggish div 12 or 13 weeks after that in April. It's a no brainer, could even up that $3.30 to $3.40;). Might be able to squeeze a few more in before it gets to $3.20:).

This and AIR are classic divvy hound stocks mate. What I like about this one is the long and consistent track record of ~ 30 cps fully imputed dividends going back over many years. 13.5 cps last year in April The company is trading extremely well and I think we are very well positioned.

[winner69]

Seeing things looking more positive for FY17 I updated this chart which shows what a $20m profit would look like in historical terms .....and what the share price is likely to do

And don't forget to factor in what 30 cent plus dividend looks like in the current low interest rate environment

Just to remind you share price of $4 plus on cards

[couta1]

Just to remind you share price of $4 plus on cards You know the drill winner, Ex divvy price completely unpredictable so yes probably as certain as a poker draw.

[percy]

You know the drill winner, Ex divvy price completely unpredictable so yes probably as certain as a poker draw.

No,no,no no.!
The sp will be driven by earnings.
Earnings will be excellent,and so the sp will rise.
Forget the $4 target.I am going for the $5.50 target.!!!
Just happen to be "well positioned."!! ..lol.

[Beagle]

The annual meeting is scheduled for 13 December in Christchurch and the company has said they will be updating shareholders with FY17 guidance at that time. I'm expecting the tone and mood of the meeting to be extremely positive in line with forward guidance given. Might be worth flying down to enjoy the positive vibe :)

[winner69]

This is chart I meant to include on earlier post. Was a few months ago - see already over $3 and heading up .... wonder how high

Glad we converted some of you - the tone of your responses back then suggested things wouldn't be this good

[see weed]

Final call for the div chasers. Make sure you are in with a grin by 5pm. today to receive the massive 16.5c div:t_up:. Nothing else I can think off at the moment comes as close to this high yield except for AIR, my other big div holding. Please correct me if I'm wrong

[BlackPeter]

Final call for the div chasers. Make sure you are in with a grin by 5pm. today to receive the massive 16.5c div:t_up:. Nothing else I can think off at the moment comes as close to this high yield except for AIR, my other big div holding. Please correct me if I'm wrong

Jeez ... and AIR did really well for dividend chasers - didn't it?

Not sure where HLG is going ex-dividend, but not sure I would want to use AIR as a lucky charm.

[Jantar]

....... Nothing else I can think off at the moment comes as close to this high yield except for AIR, my other big div holding. Please correct me if I'm wrong
STU beats HLG in the Div stakes :t_up:

Holding AIR, HLG and STU

[see weed]

STU beats HLG in the Div stakes :t_up:

Holding AIR, HLG and STU
Thanks. Had my eye on STU in July, but was too busy buying AIR and HLG.

[Beagle]

STU beats HLG in the Div stakes :t_up:

Holding AIR, HLG and STU

This statement got the hounds nose sniffing, (he LOVES a good dividend feed)

STU a very good dividend payer but be careful folks. Last year's profit of $25.8m included a one-off gain of $6.4m so the 22.5 cps divvy paid at a payout ratio of 77.8% which is a fairly consistent payout ratio compared with recent years included the payout percentage of that one-off gain.

On a normalised basis their earnings for FY16 were $19.4m which gives eps of 21.4 cps. Using the same ~ 78% payout ratio which STU have used for the last 3 years that would have generated fully imputed dividends of 16.7 cps.
16.7 / 0.72 = gross normalised divvies of 23.19cps which based on this mornings share price gives a gross yield of 9.8%.

Based on a real quick and dirty review of their FY16 financials and taking into account company initiatives and possible extra business from the recent earthquakes they may be able to lift EPS back to FY15 level's of 24.5 cps which would represent normalised earnings growth of 14.5%. In 2015 they paid dividends of 19 cps fully imputed and I believe this is somewhere near the best proxy for Fy17. 19 / 0.72 = 26.38 cps which represents a gross dividend yield of 11.2% based on today's price.

How does this compare to HLG and AIR ?
I am forecasting 30 cps for HLG for the year ahead. Based on a theoretical ex divvy price of 3.19-.165 -= $3.025 30 cps fully imputed = 30 / 0.72 41.67 cps gross = 13.77% gross
I am forecasting 20 cps for AIR for the year ahead. Based on $2.01 20 / 0.72 = 27.78 cps gross = 13.82% gross.

Conclusion: All 3 are good dividend payers and deserve good consideration by dividend hounds but I believe HLG and AIR are capable of paying a higher sustained gross dividend yield.

As always DYOR.

[see weed]

The annual meeting is scheduled for 13 December in Christchurch and the company has said they will be updating shareholders with FY17 guidance at that time. I'm expecting the tone and mood of the meeting to be extremely positive in line with forward guidance given. Might be worth flying down to enjoy the positive vibe :)
Are you going first class or buss. class? Could you pick me up on the way:D.

[see weed]

I feel like a little div coming on:D.....Well that was nice, made my day. Have you got yours yet winperRogcou:cool:.

[percy]

I feel like a little div coming on:D.....Well that was nice, made my day.

Mine is in the bank too.
Unfortunately I will miss the agm, as I will be on The West Coast selling books.

[Beagle]

I feel like a little div coming on:D.....Well that was nice, made my day.

Hi mate, can't make it down to the annual meeting, (other business commitments), but I am looking forward to a really positive FY17 guidance update from the company on 13 December.

Must check my bank account today...that could be fun :)

[Joshuatree]

Im a lurker at HLG and boy are they pumping their shops with deals , specials . Black Friday deals, 2 for.... etc etc its constantly changing deals and spinwise.Today 40% off storewide ; the place is zinging(bought 2 more t-shirts). And i get ambushed almost daily with online specials as well. They are wringing the deals out; impressive.

[JeremyALD]

One thing that can't be argued, Hallensteins pays a bloody good dividend!

[Joshuatree]

40% sale continues, extended to today at least. Say 100% markup on a panel T shirt (printed over entire shirt)retailing @ $30 thats $15 cost. 40% off is sale price $18. Normal tshirts been selling 3 for $30.Sure will be getting the turnover but what are the margins like?

[percy]

Alter your 100% mark up to 200% or 300%.!!

[Joshuatree]

Prob. They are real thin shirts ,not many washes before they look tatty.Made in sweatshops?

[percy]

Prob. They are real thin shirts ,not many washes before they look tatty.Made in sweatshops?

No,No,No.
Most probably made in a brand new state of the art factory in Bangladesh.!!!.????????????,.!.lol.

[Beagle]

Prob. They are real thin shirts ,not many washes before they look tatty.Made in sweatshops?

You get what you pay for JT. If you know anyone that'll sell me a quality pure organic cotton T shirt for $18 I am all ears.

[Joshuatree]

Its the very cool all over designs on the panel T-shirts that have me sold on them; jeez even the attractive savvy young thing running the place knows me now.

[percy]

Its the very cool all over designs on the panel T-shirts that have me sold on them; jeez even the attractive savvy young thing running the place knows me now.

I doubt you have even looked at the T-shirt designs.!!!!!!!!!!!!!..lol.

[Joshuatree]

She did say "There is 40% off EVERYTHING in store, yes every single thing...........;; but not me":)

[tim23]

Not in my experience buy their long sleeved business shirts wear well plenty of washes too!

[see weed]

One thing that can't be argued, Hallensteins pays a bloody good dividend!
Yes, and another due in about 13 weeks after New year:t_up:, buying up as many as can get under $3. Wonder where sp will be at tomorrows close?:confused:

[winner69]

Yes, and another due in about 13 weeks after New year:t_up:, buying up as many as can get under $3. Wonder where sp will be at tomorrows close?:confused:

Maybe $3.30 plus on way to $3.50 by year end

[percy]

Yes, and another due in about 13 weeks after New year:t_up:, buying up as many as can get under $3. Wonder where sp will be at tomorrows close?:confused:

I don't think the update will be really meaningful,as the agm is before the important Christmas trading period.
The update, late January,early February will be what I am looking forward to.

[see weed]

Does HLG have a live video of the AGM tomorrow?

[winner69]

Does HLG have a live video of the AGM tomorrow?

Doubt it mate

HLG have a very minimalistic approach to shareholders. You get the impression they are a bit of a necessary burden ....as is the ASM

HLG must hold the record for the least number of announcements in a year.

[see weed]

Doubt it mate

HLG have a very minimalistic approach to shareholders. You get the impression they are a bit of a necessary burden ....as is the ASM

HLG must hold the record for the least number of announcements in a year.
Thanks winner69. Wonder what they are talking about at AGM. Probably find out in a couple of hours. This reminds me of primary school, when being separated from the other kids and locked in a corner and not allowed to talk to anyone, for being a naughty boy:).

[winner69]

Thanks winner69. Wonder what they are talking about at AGM. Probably find out in a couple of hours. This reminds me of primary school, when being separated from the other kids and locked in a corner and not allowed to talk to anyone, for being a naughty boy:).

Will be a boring as meeting. The Chairman and CEO will have rambled on about last year and Malcolm and Michael will have been re-elected as Directors and thats about it.

Doubt whether anybody would have brought up how hands off the deal to occupy a new building developed by a major shareholder really was - just not polite

[winner69]

Graeme to Stuart - you did send the presentations to the NZX didn't you?

Stuart - Whoops .......I'll say the internet was down


But maybe meeting has been delayed and it wasn't 10 am after all

[Beagle]

Thanks winner69. Wonder what they are talking about at AGM. Probably find out in a couple of hours. This reminds me of primary school, when being separated from the other kids and locked in a corner and not allowed to talk to anyone, for being a naughty boy:).

Surprised that in this day and age they can't release the text of the ASM speeches so that everyone gets a fair and timely update. We are left to read the tea leaves of the SP going up a couple of cents to try and make sense of it.

[winner69]

Surprised that in this day and age they can't release the text of the ASM speeches so that everyone gets a fair and timely update. We are left to read the tea leaves of the SP going up a couple of cents to try and make sense of it.

Result of that minimalistic approach to retail shareholders - they really are a nuisance (and don't really matter)

[Beagle]

Result of that minimalistic approach to retail shareholders - they really are a nuisance (and don't really matter)

LOL thanks for that buddy...as long as the hound sees his food bowl filled right to the brim twice a year little else matters :)

P.S. Text of annual meeting speeches now out. No specific guidance given but the following brief extract sums it up quite nicely I believe


and we anticipate a much improved group profit performance for
the current trading period

PPS I think this is one ASM that it would have been nice to attend as one could have really got some good oil on just how much emphasis they were putting on "much improved"
Sometimes one can interpret quite a bit from the tone and emphasis and body language. Never mind...market likes it so all good.

[Beagle]

Common guys, up 11 cps...the applause is "deafening"...some enthusiasm is required or are we all at lunch scoffing on good food and wine already ?...P.S. Okay up 15 cents now on bigger than usual volume...obviously the tone of the annual meeting was very positive !

[Robomo]

Yay!!! Bought at 2.92 5 weeks ago. Now up to 3.12 plus a big juicy dividend so could not be happier!!!! Cheers all round

[percy]

I have just read the CEO's and Chairman's addresses.
Thought they were full and frank.
All the information I need.
The online sales increase is outstanding.
With new stores,new format stores, I think the trading update at the end of January will be excellent.

[winner69]

New boss to replace Graeme looks a good choice

Might have something to do with the exhuberence today

[Beagle]

Yay!!! Bought at 2.92 5 weeks ago. Now up to 3.12 plus a big juicy dividend so could not be happier!!!! Cheers all round

Good stuff mate !

10% sales increase, can someone do some background check, when was the last year that happened ?...certainly not within the five year comparative summary timeframe I've read in the annual report.
Must be that new competition growing the size of the pie overall as Percy quite rightly suggested some time back.
That sized increase in sales, on expanded margins and a stable cost base...join the dots...to get next year's very significant increase in profit.

[Biscuit]

New boss to replace Graeme looks a good choice

Might have something to do with the exhuberence today

Yes, Mark Goddard's Australian retail experience should be helpful if they push further into that market and ensure he's not lost in space there. CEO made some comment on the new boys on the street:

"Two months ago we faced competition from both H&M and Zara in New Zealand for the
first time when both brands opened at Sylvia Park, Auckland. To meet that competition we re-built
our stores and I can report performance has improved since the ‘new competition’ has opened."

That's fighting talk!

[percy]

Yes I had been thinking joining the dots, the increase in next year's profit would be significant.
However I think you are right,it will be VERY significant.
So my eps target of between 30 cents and 35 cents may come in at the upper end. Maybe higher? Very significant.
The agm addresses did confirm my thinking.

[see weed]

Whats the sp on now? I have just come back from lunch and to scared to look.

[Beagle]

Yes, Mark Goddard's Australian retail experience should be helpful if they push further into that market and ensure he's not lost in space there. CEO made some comment on the new boys on the street:

"Two months ago we faced competition from both H&M and Zara in New Zealand for the
first time when both brands opened at Sylvia Park, Auckland. To meet that competition we re-built
our stores and I can report performance has improved since the ‘new competition’ has opened."

That's fighting talk!

Highlights the very point that Percy was the first to make. Also underscores the attractiveness of the modern euro look of the new format stores that's a point I was making quite some time back.

Please nobody hate me for this, but I would prefer to see them keep the dividends the same for the next few years at 30 cps per annum, (rather than ramp them up which they easily could) and really get stuck in and roll out these incredibly stylish new stores really quickly.

We appear to be very well positioned :D

[mikeybycrikey]

I was really interested to see that Glassons Australia is moving back towards profit and they've opened 2 Hallensteins stores in Australia too.

[see weed]

Yes I had been thinking joining the dots, the increase in next year's profit would be significant.
However I think you are right,it will be VERY significant.
So my eps target of between 30 cents and 35 cents may come in at the upper end. Maybe higher? Very significant.
The agm addresses did confirm my thinking.
So whata you think. Another wave of buyers come through tomorrow after reading all the good news in the morning paper? and paying such a good div. Every man and his cat will want a bit of the action:t_up:. Glad I bought all mine last week. Actually purchased 5000 more than what I thought I had:D.

[percy]

So whata you think. Another wave of buyers come through tomorrow after reading all the good news in the morning paper? and paying such a good div. Every man and his cat will want a bit of the action:t_up:. Glad I bought all mine last week. Actually purchased 5000 more than what I thought I had:D.

5.000 more than what you thought.??? !!!!!
When they hit $5.50 that will be another $12,500 of profits for you.!!!!..lol.
The sp.Often takes a week or two to react.Brokers' analysts will be reworking their "models",and updating their research.New target prices,new buy/outperform recommendations.Then brokers will put more clients into them.There was enough in today's addresses for analysts to put on their thinking caps. It happens,but often very slowly.We know what we are looking for,and today's agm confirms we are on the right road.So for us, we just sit back and wait for the end of January, Christmas trading update.Then we can argue on whether 2017 year eps will be 35 cents or more.!!!
I expect sometime over Christmas either W69 or Roger will go for 40 cents or more.!!!..lol.

[Arbroath]

Keep calm and carry on!

I'll be looking for H1 npat of at least $9m and a gross margin in the region of 58.5% and a sales uplift of 8-9%. The second half is even harder to guess at with weather factors etc but share price should see a move back above $3.50 if they can deliver c $9m for the first half. Another div in April prob 14 cents or so.

[see weed]

5.000 more than what you thought.??? !!!!!
When they hit $5.50 that will be another $12,500 of profits for you.!!!!..lol.
The sp.Often takes a week or two to react.Brokers' analysts will be reworking their "models",and updating their research.New target prices,new buy/outperform recommendations.Then brokers will put more clients into them.There was enough in today's addresses for analysts to put on their thinking caps. It happens,but often very slowly.We know what we are looking for,and today's agm confirms we are on the right road.So for us, we just sit back and wait for the end of January, Christmas trading update.Then we can argue on whether 2017 year eps will be 35 cents or more.!!!
I expect sometime over Christmas either W69 or Roger will go for 40 cents or more.!!!..lol.
Yeah, thought I only bought 5000 last Friday, but had bought 2 lots of 5000 by mistake. Bought another 2 lots yesterday. But when counted them all up at the end of the day there was 95.000 and not 90,000. Not to worry, happy with this little holding and looking forward to Jan-Feb results and juicy div. about 8 weeks later:).

[percy]

Yeah, thought I only bought 5000 last Friday, but had bought 2 lots of 5000 by mistake. Bought another 2 lots yesterday. But when counted them all up at the end of the day there was 95.000 and not 90,000. Not to worry, happy with this little holding and looking forward to Jan-Feb results and juicy div. about 8 weeks later:).

Are you related to Couta1.
Have 95,000 reasons for asking.???..lol.

[Beagle]

5.000 more than what you thought.??? !!!!!
When they hit $5.50 that will be another $12,500 of profits for you.!!!!..lol.
The sp.Often takes a week or two to react.Brokers' analysts will be reworking their "models",and updating their research.New target prices,new buy/outperform recommendations.Then brokers will put more clients into them.There was enough in today's addresses for analysts to put on their thinking caps. It happens,but often very slowly.We know what we are looking for,and today's agm confirms we are on the right road.So for us, we just sit back and wait for the end of January, Christmas trading update.Then we can argue on whether 2017 year eps will be 35 cents or more.!!!
I expect sometime over Christmas either W69 or Roger will go for 40 cents or more.!!!..lol.

LOL I wouldn't rule that out especially if Mrs hound puts some special sauce into the Christmas pudding :)

Okay so on a serious note I thought I'd have a look at sales growth in recent years to put this years 10% growth into its proper perspective, (source five year financial highlights page 3 of annual return)
Sales growth
2013 $220.1m / $215.6m = 2.1%
2014 $208m / $220.1m = (5.5)%
2015 $221.5m / $208m = 6.5%
2016 $223.5 / $221.5m = 0.9%

So 10% this year is really quite something !

See weed, mate that's what happens when you much around with the reverse gear when backing up the truck :)

[percy]

LOL I wouldn't rule that out especially if Mrs hound puts some special sauce into the Christmas pudding :)

My thinking exactly.!!!lol.

[winner69]

Glad Percy's came up with a 35 cents eps figure for F17.

About what I forecasted a while ago - and got accused of ramping and all that stuff. Even Roger pooh-poohed the thought.

A 7% sales increase with 2% points higher margin (even Arbroath is implying that) with. Few million more in expenses will give $23m npat - about 35 cents a share.

Methinks that 35 cents eps is pretty safe

Heck that deserves a share price well over $4 - even at $5 is only a PE of 14

(PS - I wouldn't go as high as 40 cents for F17 - thats just ridiculous......maybe F18)

[Beagle]

Okay I won't disappoint you NBT. Here's the thing, for the vast majority of FY16 the exchange rate was 65 cents..even if we assume an average of 70 cents this year, (closed at 72 as you quite rightly said W69) that's a fairly conservative 8% reduction in the cost of purchases so I see their profits exceeding FY15 on the exchange rate alone. Then add in Di Humperies reinvigorating the fashion pizazz into the product line at Glassons and with half normal weather we're off to the races with $20m+ profit in FY17.

Here's what they said this year - Sales up circa $2m to $ 223.5m They mentioned gross profit dropped ~3% to 56.5% so:-
Purchases must have been $97.21m Kiwi, (assume for a minute stock level was consistent and average exchange rate of 65 cents U.S.) Purchases in U.S$63.18m
Gross profit $126.3m = 56.5% - gives $13,5m net profit

Now if we assume an average of U.S. 70 cents this year (which currently looks conservative) those purchases would have cost them $U.S.63.18m / 0.7 = $90.25m Kiwi a reduction of just on $7m so GROSS PROFIT WOULD BE SEVEN MILLION DOLLARS MORE AT US 70 CENTS AND WE ARE CURRENTLY AT 72 CENTS !!

That's $13.5m net profit plus the extra $7m gross profit which flows straight to the bottom line so that's $20.5m for FY17 just based on the currency increase !, assuming all other costs remain the same, but the word seems to be they've been trying to pull costs out of their structure to cope with the lower currency so one would hope we get the full year's benefit of those efficiency gains this year in addition to the above favourable impact from the currency. Then factor in Di Humphries well known positive influence and if the weather starts to be half normal...well we could easily see $4 again this time next year and profit somewhere well north of $20m.

This is too easy mate, for anyone that knows where the dollar has been and its effects on importers and then the subsequent effect when it goes back up (AFTER the company has been vigorously pulling other costs out of its cost structure to cope with the lower dollar)...for anyone with some vision of what's going to happen its clear profitability is highly likely to AT LEAST be restored to FY15 level's if not considerably beyond. This could easily do a Kathmandu style recovery and grow profits by 67% next year to $22.5m !!

On top of that the 15% gross dividend yield which the company has confirmed makes this arguably the most compelling dividend yielding stock on the NZX with a very long and stable track record of paying exceptionally stable and exceptionally high level's of dividends.

Dunno about that Winner. The hound sniffed this profit increase out way back on 10 August 2016 when he was buying at ~ $2.70. A well bred pedigree divvy hound can smell a solid feed coming from a mile off :D $22.5m = 37.75 cps. Disc - no special sauce was consumed before or during this or the 10 August post :) Thing I like about HLG's accounts is they're so simple to understand, even my old fashioned steam powered abacas seems perfectly capable of crunching the numbers.

[see weed]

Are you related to Couta1.
Have 95,000 reasons for asking.???..lol.
lol...no just a week or more trader.

[winner69]

Dunno about that Winner. The hound sniffed this profit increase out way back on 10 August 2016 when he was buying at ~ $2.70. A well bred pedigree divvy hound can smell a solid feed coming from a mile off :D $22.5m = 37.75 cps. Disc - no special sauce was consumed before or during this or the 10 August post :) Thing I like about HLG's accounts is they're so simple to understand, even my old fashioned steam powered abacas seems perfectly capable of crunching the numbers.

Jeez - was it way back in August we had these thoughts. Weren't we very perceptive,

Was sure that $2.70 was about as low as it was going to get - been good ride since (even though market overall not been that good) ......, and plenty more to come I reckon.

[winner69]

Yes, Mark Goddard's Australian retail experience should be helpful if they push further into that market and ensure he's not lost in space there.


............!

Mark will do well, but will need to keep that Di on a tight leash

[Beagle]

Jeez - was it way back in August we had these thoughts. Weren't we very perceptive,

Was sure that $2.70 was about as low as it was going to get - been good ride since (even though market overall not been that good) ......, and plenty more to come I reckon.

Yeap I think we had / have this one sussed-out quite nicely. I think you, Seeweed, I and a few others others picked the bottom on this one with impeccable timing. As you say, in the context of a weak market overall since then and a 16.5 cps divvy the gains since $2.70 in a few months have been pretty good and I agree that there's plenty of gas in the tank to run.

Di's been doing very well at Glassons I reckon. Give her a decent brand and she's grabbed the ball and running flat out with it, (nobody could have saved that pup, PPL).

[see weed]

Forget about ATMs, RYMs, SCLs, SKTs, TGHs, and TILs etc. for now. Come over here for a while over Christmas. We are having a ball.....just a quiet ball. Put your funds into HLG for a couple of months, knowing that a good div and results coming early next year;). No worries, rest easy over the holidays knowing good divs on there way and prob a little sp rise:t_up: Merry Christmas

[Raz]

Forget about ATMs, RYMs, SCLs, SKTs, TGHs, and TILs etc. for now. Come over here for a while over Christmas. We are having a ball.....just a quiet ball. Put your funds into HLG for a couple of months, knowing that a good div and results coming early next year;). No worries, rest easy over the holidays knowing good divs on there way and prob a little sp rise:t_up: Merry Christmas

Share price has had a nice run up, still held a small parcel before I noticed the comments (shout out to Rodger in particular) on this one and then had a closer look for myself..bought in at the right time a more substantial parcel..using my classic car money...thats not family money.. so watching this one closely as my hobby depends on it ha !!

[see weed]

Would one days turnover of $20,000 plus be good turnover out of a small Glasson store?

[winner69]

Would one days turnover of $20,000 plus be good turnover out of a small Glasson store?

About $7m a year = pretty good I'd say

Why you ask?

[see weed]

About $7m a year = pretty good I'd say

Why you ask?
Just a bit of Christmas homework:).

[mikeybycrikey]

Would one days turnover of $20,000 plus be good turnover out of a small Glasson store?

I'd say that it depends on the day of the week and the time of the year.

A quick look shows the Glassons NZ had sales of $83 million out of 68 stores. So that's an average of of $1,228,000 per store per year, or $23k per week.

Obviously there is going to be a huge difference between big stores and smaller stores.

[winner69]

Westpac Consumer Confidence Survey results out today


Households are feeling jolly, with consumer confidence rising for a second quarter in December, leaving it at slightly above average levels.Households in rural communities have become much more upbeat following strong rises in dairy prices. Households on lower incomes have also become more optimistic

Great news for HLG - jolly consumers love buying clothes and things - expect boomer Xmas sales ....and for rest of the summer

Maybe that 35 cents EPS for F17 is under threat - percy, maybe that EPS will get close to 40 cents?

[percy]

I expect sometime over Christmas either W69 or Roger will go for 40 cents or more.!!!..lol.

And so it came to pass ,6 days before Christmas.
Now we eagerly await the result's of Roger's wife's trifle.!..lol.

[winner69]

If HLG did have a really good year and Earnings were close to 40 cents a share what would share price be?

Surely heaps more than $3 .......maybe $5 plus

Looking forward to that

[winner69]

And so it came to pass ,6 days before Christmas.
Now we eagerly await the result's of Roger's wife's trifle.!..lol.

Took the lead from you mate

You mentioned an EPS of 35 cents .....you generally onte conservative side .....and indications (like those consumer confidence numbers) suggest thecworld isa lot happier

So just adding a bit to your conservative 35 cents = close to 40 cents

[percy]

Took the lead from you mate

You mentioned an EPS of 35 cents .....you generally onte conservative side .....and indications (like those consumer confidence numbers) suggest thecworld isa lot happier

So just adding a bit to your conservative 35 cents = close to 40 cents

Well 38 cents eps and a PE of 14 gives a share price of $5.32.
Higher eps of say 40cents and a PE of 15 gives a share price of $6.00.

[winner69]

Well 38 cents eps and a PE of 14 gives a share price of $5.32.
Higher eps of say 40cents and a PE of 15 gives a share price of $6.00.

Looking good then - time to buy more, if seeweed hasn't cleaned them all out

[winner69]

Well 38 cents eps and a PE of 14 gives a share price of $5.32.
Higher eps of say 40cents and a PE of 15 gives a share price of $6.00.

At that rate you'll win next years NZX picking competition - improving on your Top 10 performance this year

[see weed]

Looking good then - time to buy more, if seeweed hasn't cleaned them all out
Got my full of HGL for now. Just a waiting game till the end of January for update.Don't want to be too greedy, left some for you. Have been visiting a couple stores lately to monitor progress....busy,busy,busy:t_up:.

[h2so4]

And so it came to pass ,6 days before Christmas.
Now we eagerly await the result's of Roger's wife's trifle.!..lol.

Tell him he's dreaming.
I'm more interested in Rogers wifes trifle anyway.

[see weed]

Well 38 cents eps and a PE of 14 gives a share price of $5.32.
Higher eps of say 40cents and a PE of 15 gives a share price of $6.00.
If you could buy that 18000 @ 3.07, then it will be plain sailing to 3.12 and beyond;).....You better hurry, someone is having a nibble right now:).

[Beagle]

Tell him he's dreaming.
I'm more interested in Rogers wifes trifle anyway.

Definitely not something to be trifled with that's for sure :D I think I got to 38 cps without any persuasion or special sauce a while back...if I overindulge I might imagine those two numbers around the other way LOL.

P.S. Anyway speaking of Christmas and gift giving...HLG the gift you give yourself that keeps on giving...can we please have a brief hiatus in all the positive posts, I'd like to stuff a few more into my own Xmas stocking as close as possible to $3.00.

[JeremyALD]

Definitely not something to be trifled with that's for sure :D I think I got to 38 cps without any persuasion or special sauce a while back...if I overindulge I might imagine those two numbers around the other way LOL.

P.S. Anyway speaking of Christmas and gift giving...HLG the gift you give yourself that keeps on giving...can we please have a brief hiatus in all the positive posts, I'd like to stuff a few more into my own Xmas stocking as close as possible to $3.00.


So we've spent a lot of time talking about the positives which there are plenty :)

Playing devil's advocate here. What do you think the potential risks to hallensteins over the next year aside of the obvious competition. Anything you think COULD hamper the share price?

[percy]

So we've spent a lot of time talking about the positives which there are plenty :)

Playing devil's advocate here. What do you think the potential risks to hallensteins over the next year aside of the obvious competition. Anything you think COULD hamper the share price?

If the NZ $ fell out of bed, HLG and all retailers would be badly affected.

[peat]

I conducted an informal survey with my clients regarding their expectations of December retail.
I gave them four choices with 1 being times are tough and 4 being Spectacular
The results were



2% (Times are tough)
38% (Normal)
44% (Good times-retail therapy tonic of choice)
8% (Spectacular)
8% No opinion expressed

[h2so4]

So we've spent a lot of time talking about the positives which there are plenty :)

Playing devil's advocate here. What do you think the potential risks to hallensteins over the next year aside of the obvious competition. Anything you think COULD hamper the share price?

Negative economic news combined with rising inflation.

[h2so4]

......you did say anything?

[Beagle]

So we've spent a lot of time talking about the positives which there are plenty :)

Playing devil's advocate here. What do you think the potential risks to hallensteins over the next year aside of the obvious competition. Anything you think COULD hamper the share price?

Thank you for playing Devil's advocate here, hopefully I can beat the SP down 10 cents on a temporary basis so I can buy some more on the cheap, oh my goodness did I really say that out loud :blush:

1. Currency could hurt them, when it was circa 64-5 cents last year it hurt, they're going fairly short with forward cover so a sharp currency drop could even have an effect this financial year
2. A possible fall in consumer confidence caused by any major factor including a material increase in interest rates
3. Rising mall rents
4. Competition opening up at a greater rate than HLG are able to meet with refreshed store formats, (refreshing of store format has boosted sales in stores near where new competition has opened up)
5. Very unseasonable weather, e.g. wet / coldish summer, hot dry autumn, record warm winter temperatures, or all the preceding.

[winner69]

Thank you for playing Devil's advocate here, hopefully I can beat the SP down 10 cents on a temporary basis so I can buy some more on the cheap, oh my goodness did I really say that out loud :blush:

1. Currency could hurt them, when it was circa 64-5 cents last year it hurt.
1.a. They're going fairly short with forward cover so a sharp currency drop could have an effect even this year
2. A possible fall in consumer confidence caused by any major factor including a material increase in interest rates
3. Rising mall rents
4. Competition opening up at a greater rate than HLG are able to meet with refreshed store formats, (refreshing of store format has boosted sales in stores near where new competition has opened up)

Isn't 4 really just Zara, Topshop and H&M SMASHING them

HLG doesn't have a chance

Make Jeremy's day - SELL SELL SELL SELL

And that includes you seeweed

[winner69]

......you did say anything?

We could add activists getting their act together and causing chaos as they highlight Hallensteins and Glassons unethical practices - esp in their supply chain

[Beagle]

Yeah they're in desperate trouble with all those new competitors mate...according to quite a few commentators on here a few months back HLG were headed down the same path as Pumpkin Patch LOL.
Please hit my buying bid tomorrow, all donations to the hounds welfare fund gratefully received :D

[nextbigthing]

Anything you think COULD hamper the share price?

If our dear friend Couta takes a large(r) holding. That never seems to end well.




(we love you though Couta).

[Beagle]

If our dear friend Couta takes a large(r) holding. That never seems to end well.




(we love you though Couta).

Yes indeed we do. To be fair he's done pretty well out of AIR is a soft market in recent months. Net of the recent special and final divvy totaling 35 cps he told me his average entry price is $1.94.

[see weed]

Definitely not something to be trifled with that's for sure :D I think I got to 38 cps without any persuasion or special sauce a while back...if I overindulge I might imagine those two numbers around the other way LOL.

P.S. Anyway speaking of Christmas and gift giving...HLG the gift you give yourself that keeps on giving...can we please have a brief hiatus in all the positive posts, I'd like to stuff a few more into my own Xmas stocking as close as possible to $3.00.
I felt that way when I sold out at 2.72c about 4 months back at a small profit, hoping they would fall back to where I bought in at 2.61 to 2.69c., av=2.65c. There were a few people pumping back then, so had to buy back in from 2.89 to 3.16= 3.02 av...... join the club....pump pump pump.

[JeremyALD]

Thank you for playing Devil's advocate here, hopefully I can beat the SP down 10 cents on a temporary basis so I can buy some more on the cheap, oh my goodness did I really say that out loud :blush:

1. Currency could hurt them, when it was circa 64-5 cents last year it hurt, they're going fairly short with forward cover so a sharp currency drop could even have an effect this financial year
2. A possible fall in consumer confidence caused by any major factor including a material increase in interest rates
3. Rising mall rents
4. Competition opening up at a greater rate than HLG are able to meet with refreshed store formats, (refreshing of store format has boosted sales in stores near where new competition has opened up)
5. Very unseasonable weather, e.g. wet / coldish summer, hot dry autumn, record warm winter temperatures, or all the preceding.

Great thoughts Roger.

Its one of those odd ones where I want it to go down before it goes back up so I can buy some more!!! Are we being too greedy....up up and away I say!!

One thing I really like about Hallensteins is their honesty in announcements. They seem to be very transparent and admit when they've had disappointing years. I like that. I go to the future with a lot of confidence and you know what, it feels good being an investor in a clothing company that battles off the big guys:cool:

[Baa_Baa]

I felt that way when I sold out at 2.72c about 4 months back at a small profit, hoping they would fall back to where I bought in at 2.61 to 2.69c., av=2.65c. There were a few people pumping back then, so had to buy back in from 2.89 to 3.16= 3.02 av...... join the club....pump pump pump.

Newbie alert, in the pool of sharks ask yourself who is the food.

[see weed]

Isn't 4 really just Zara, Topshop and H&M SMASHING them

HLG doesn't have a chance

Make Jeremy's day - SELL SELL SELL SELL

And that includes you seeweed
Bought my final lot last Thursday, but if they happen to go back to 2.95-3.00, then might be tempted to buy more at that level.

[see weed]

Newbie alert, in the pool of sharks ask yourself who is the food.
Who is the food.

[see weed]

Great thoughts Roger.

Its one of those odd ones where I want it to go down before it goes back up so I can buy some more!!! Are we being too greedy....up up and away I say!!

One thing I really like about Hallensteins is their honesty in announcements. They seem to be very transparent and admit when they've had disappointing years. I like that. I go to the future with a lot of confidence and you know what, it feels good being an investor in a clothing company that battles off the big guys:cool:
Don't want to appear to be a shark, but you have 2 choices...be very greedy and wait for sp to hit 2.95-3.00 or...be half greedy and just start buy buy buy at 3.05:). Am thinking, might start and be half greedy and put in a little order before it hits 3.20;).

[winner69]

NZD tumbles to 6 month low v USD

At least HLG are making heaps during the important busy part of the year

Anyway - NZD will be back in the 70's soon

No worries

[BlackPeter]

Just wondering whether the recent WHS announcement (revenue growth but margin squeeze) might apply for HGL as well? Pretty sure anyway that the SP might have a wee dip over he next couple of days ... time to accumulate - or not?

[percy]

Just wondering whether the recent WHS announcement (revenue growth but margin squeeze) might apply for HGL as well? Pretty sure anyway that the SP might have a wee dip over he next couple of days ... time to accumulate - or not?

From the Chairman's address seven days ago at HLG's agm.
"Sales 10% ahead of last year.Gross margin is also up and the season so far is showing very strong growth."
We remain "well positioned,"and from what I hear of Christmas trading so far,I am sure we can up grade that to "very well positioned."

[see weed]

Just wondering whether the recent WHS announcement (revenue growth but margin squeeze) might apply for HGL as well? Pretty sure anyway that the SP might have a wee dip over he next couple of days ... time to accumulate - or not?
Buy half now and 2 half's later on the dip:). Bob each way.

[Joshuatree]

Think i will unsubscribe from their deals.They are coming relentlessly , daily, rejigging, reworking their deals; frenetic, urgent. not sustainable imo; turned me off reading them. Maybe its just for the buildup to xmas.

[Leftfield]

While the HLG bulls continue to get excited, it seems WHS is not finding the Christmas trading conditions quite so favourable.

"The Board of The Warehouse Group advise that performance in the lead up to Christmas has been below expectations and while the next few weeks are an important trading period, it is unlikely that the year to date shortfall will be fully offset. Adjusted Net Profit After Tax (NPAT) for the Group for the First Half of Financial Year 2017 (H117) ending on 29 January 2017 is expected to be between 10%-15% lower than the same period last year, which is between $41.0m and $38.5m."

[Beagle]

From the Chairman's address seven days ago at HLG's agm.
"Sales 10% ahead of last year.Gross margin is also up and the season so far is showing very strong growth."
We remain "well positioned,"and from what I hear of Christmas trading so far,I am sure we can up grade that to "very well positioned."

This, Left Field. WHS is a completely different can of worms than HLG.

[Biscuit]

Think i will unsubscribe from their deals.They are coming relentlessly , daily, rejigging, reworking their deals; frenetic, urgent. not sustainable imo; turned me off reading them. Maybe its just for the buildup to xmas.

Yes, they are relentless. I just ignore them unless I want to buy something, then I wait to see what the next deal is, like Briscoes, there is always a "sale" on

[h2so4]

This, Left Field. WHS is a completely different can of worms than HLG.

Plenty of wiggle room left in HGL's can.

[winner69]

While the HLG bulls continue to get excited, it seems WHS is not finding the Christmas trading conditions quite so favourable.

"The Board of The Warehouse Group advise that performance in the lead up to Christmas has been below expectations and while the next few weeks are an important trading period, it is unlikely that the year to date shortfall will be fully offset. Adjusted Net Profit After Tax (NPAT) for the Group for the First Half of Financial Year 2017 (H117) ending on 29 January 2017 is expected to be between 10%-15% lower than the same period last year, which is between $41.0m and $38.5m."




But NZer's spending heaps more on Christmas this year
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11769543

Stop scare mongering - HLG doing just fine while Warehouse lost their way

[Biscuit]

Stop scare mongering - HLG doing just fine while Warehouse lost their way

WHS lost their way many years ago, they are thrashing about and their story not believable IMO. HLG know their business inside and out and stick to the knitting.

[winner69]

But NZer's spending heaps more on Christmas this year
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11769543

Stop scare mongering - HLG doing just fine while Warehouse lost their way

That was for the first 2 weeks of December

Heard that the last few days have been even more buoyant

Betcha HLG doing better than most

[see weed]

While the HLG bulls continue to get excited, it seems WHS is not finding the Christmas trading conditions quite so favourable.

"The Board of The Warehouse Group advise that performance in the lead up to Christmas has been below expectations and while the next few weeks are an important trading period, it is unlikely that the year to date shortfall will be fully offset. Adjusted Net Profit After Tax (NPAT) for the Group for the First Half of Financial Year 2017 (H117) ending on 29 January 2017 is expected to be between 10%-15% lower than the same period last year, which is between $41.0m and $38.5m."



HLG seem to be doing the opposite to WHS. Wonder if anyone was lucky enough to sell their WHS yesterday at over $3 and buy HLG for the same price, and double their div:cool:. Was thinking of buying WHS couple months back but couldn't resist HLG 30c div:).

[Beagle]

2016 30 cps
2015 31 cps
2014 28.5 cps
2013 33.5 cps
2012 33.5 cps
2011 31 cps
2010 31 cps

Pretty consistent isn't it !

[see weed]

Come on now, someone take out 3.14-3.15 and see how far it will go:t_up:......3.18-3.19?

[Raz]

HLG seem to be doing the opposite to WHS. Wonder if anyone was lucky enough to sell their WHS yesterday at over $3 and buy HLG for the same price, and double their div:cool:. Was thinking of buying WHS couple months back but couldn't resist HLG 30c div:).

Why would anyone buy WHS their business model has been proven to be broke since the last CEO jumped ship.

Interesting to note H&M and Zara at Sylvia park are so full they are losing customers to alternatives as people are sick of waiting for changing rooms and checkout..generally good for everyone else in the mall...overactivity results in increased activity for others and spillover sales to HLG....

[macduffy]

Why would anyone buy WHS their business model has been proven to be broke since the last CEO jumped ship.

Interesting to note H&M and Zara at Sylvia park are so full they are losing customers to alternatives as people are sick of waiting for changing rooms and checkout..generally good for everyone else in the mall...overactivity results in increased activity for others and spillover sales to HLG....

Yes, that's the "cluster" effect - and presumably justify the high rentals!

[see weed]

Why would anyone buy WHS their business model has been proven to be broke since the last CEO jumped ship.

Interesting to note H&M and Zara at Sylvia park are so full they are losing customers to alternatives as people are sick of waiting for changing rooms and checkout..generally good for everyone else in the mall...overactivity results in increased activity for others and spillover sales to HLG....
Yes, and that little HLG shop is pulling in $20,000+ per day leading up to Christmas. Wonder how much the other 128 Gla. Hal. and storm stores are doing? Maybe 20,000 x 129 =$2,580,000 per day? x 12 days leading up to Christmas = $30,960,000. Correct me if I'm wrong. Noticed some one took out most of 3.14 before close yesterday:t_up:. It appears the sellers are holding off and the buyers are creeping up to meet their selling price.

[Beagle]

Come on now, someone take out 3.14-3.15 and see how far it will go:t_up:......3.18-3.19?

Posted 4.55 p.m. yesterday. Gosh that was quick, what next ?

[see weed]

Posted 4.55 p.m. yesterday. Gosh that was quick, what next ?
Maybe $5.50-$6.00 long term, maybe 3.16-3.20 short term. If you have look at 10 year chart it appears to be in 3-4 year cycles, and it looks like we are entering a new up cycle. With all this talk of this seasons sales predicted up 10% from last year, who knows where it will go with the end of January update:t_up:. What do you think percy, $6 buy end of next year?

[Hectorplains]

Palms Mall quiet this morning. Glassons and HB all but empty. Kathmandu same.

[see weed]

Palms Mall quiet this morning. Glassons and HB all but empty. Kathmandu same.
That might be the one they closed recently. From memory they closed one or two and opened 2 or 3 new ones.

[boysy]

Retail pressures unlikely to ease in new year: experts

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/87715948/retail-pressures-unlikely-to-ease-in-new-year-experts

'The arrival of big brands like Zara and H&M into Australia had a "seismic impact" on the country's more established retailers and the same could be expected in New Zealand as those brands widened their reach.' read between the lines.

[h2so4]

Retail pressures unlikely to ease in new year: experts

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/87715948/retail-pressures-unlikely-to-ease-in-new-year-experts

'The arrival of big brands like Zara and H&M into Australia had a "seismic impact" on the country's more established retailers and the same could be expected in New Zealand as those brands widened their reach.' read between the lines.

Buffett "the best competitive advantage is when you have no competitors"
I just can't see how you do that in retail. It's too hard to protect your own patch.
There will always be competition wether Zara is the competition or Glassons is the competition but each will have their place neither will ever have a sole trading moat.

[Beagle]

Retail pressures unlikely to ease in new year: experts

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/87715948/retail-pressures-unlikely-to-ease-in-new-year-experts

'The arrival of big brands like Zara and H&M into Australia had a "seismic impact" on the country's more established retailers and the same could be expected in New Zealand as those brands widened their reach.' read between the lines.

As I am sure you will have noticed HLG have been meeting this new competition head on with very modern refurbishments of adjacent stores and the net result is HLG store sales at those stores has increased.

[boysy]

Sales up but at what cost having 40% off everything in store when I walked past doesn't bode well for those margins. still think holders here are seriously underestimating impact new players are having on HLG.

[Raz]

Sales up but at what cost having 40% off everything in store when I walked past doesn't bode well for those margins. still think holders here are seriously underestimating impact new players are having on HLG.

Not in the current reporting window. H & M second NZ store will open in Christchurch next year around September....so slow ramp up...Top Shop will have its third NZ store at that time in Christchurch. Look how long in has taken them to establish three stores one each in the main cities ...

[h2so4]

Sales up but at what cost having 40% off everything in store when I walked past doesn't bode well for those margins. still think holders here are seriously underestimating impact new players are having on HLG.

Then come to Australia. Where I shop the novelty aspect of Zara has dissipated. Both shops have customers Zara caters for the 6'2" models and is expensive. Glassons is more generous with their portions and more reasonable with their prices. Both operate in the same patch neither have sale signs on their windows.

[boysy]

My bet the stores that are being opened in the major centres are drawing punters from HLG highest turnover stores in the country. Internally this would be easy to quantify the impact but why would HLG provide this to market.

people are flocking far and wide to the likes of ZAra and H&M my bet they are disrupting HLG usual catchment area. It's not my cup of tea to drive right across Auckland to a particular store but people are doing it. As others have pointed out they have had fairly static earnings on a EPS basis so perhaps they will continue to stay on if not ahead of the curve.

[Beagle]

Share price has had a nice run up, still held a small parcel before I noticed the comments (shout out to Rodger in particular) on this one and then had a closer look for myself..bought in at the right time a more substantial parcel..using my classic car money...thats not family money.. so watching this one closely as my hobby depends on it ha !!

You're welcome mate. Over the last few months HLG has gone from $2.70 to over $3.10 and paid a 16.5 cent fully imputed divvy and all against a backdrop of a soft market overall which is down about 8% from its high in early September. HLG up just on 21% including the dividend, outperforming the market in relative terms by approx. 29%. The commentary at the very recent annual meeting was extremely positive. Those people that were repeatedly warning us of the effects of new competitors a few months back have got this badly wrong.

[James108]

You're welcome mate. Over the last few months HLG has gone from $2.70 to over $3.10 and paid a 16.5 cent fully imputed divvy and all against a backdrop of a soft market overall which is down about 8% from its high in early September. HLG up just on 21% including the dividend, outperforming the market in relative terms by approx. 29%. The commentary at the very recent annual meeting was extremely positive. Those people that were repeatedly warning us of the effects of new competitors a few months back have got this badly wrong.

Really mate? The role out of competitors stores has only just begun, dismissing it because of one half of good trading shows your bias.. and this is coming from a holder. Let's discuss this again in 5 years? If you intend to hold that long?

[James108]

Except glassons have struggled with profitability in Australia, that should tell you something about the impact of additional competition.

Ugh was ment to reply to someone, should stop posting from my phone

[tim23]

H&M and Zara will bring the crowds good news HLG will get plenty of spill over

[boysy]

not sure I buy that argument tim23 Zara and H&M are taking sales off HLG. Outside of xmas there will be no spillover why go to HLG when the product at Zara and H&M is cheaper, more fashionable and better quality. I know I've asked the question before but who here even shops at HLG and for what reason ?

[Jantar]

.... who here even shops at HLG and for what reason ? I do. They have the best quality for price in our area.

[winner69]

not sure I buy that argument tim23 Zara and H&M are taking sales off HLG. Outside of xmas there will be no spillover why go to HLG when the product at Zara and H&M is cheaper, more fashionable and better quality. I know I've asked the question before but who here even shops at HLG and for what reason ?

Have decent sweats - even OK for oldies and I bought one the other day at a Hallensteins next door to an awful almost spooky Topman. And Hallensteins appeared to be cheaper. I don't think I am part of Top Man's target group anyway.

Does it matter if shareholders on here buy from HLG stores? Many punters do shop there to the tune of $230m a year so can't be all bad.

I don't buy any Trilogy stuff and Ecoya candles are a complete ripoff but that doesn't stop me buying Trilogy shares.

[Beagle]

not sure I buy that argument tim23 Zara and H&M are taking sales off HLG. Outside of xmas there will be no spillover why go to HLG when the product at Zara and H&M is cheaper, more fashionable and better quality. I know I've asked the question before but who here even shops at HLG and for what reason ?

Sales are up 10% this year to date, the strongest growth the company has enjoyed in many years. The facts speak for themselves. Honestly you've been pushing this Zara H&M thing for many, many months now, shareholders know about the new competitors.

[see weed]

Sales are up 10% this year to date, the strongest growth the company has enjoyed in many years. The facts speak for themselves. Honestly you've been pushing this Zara H&M thing for many, many months now, shareholders know about the new competitors.
Good on you Roger:t_up:. You tell'im off. The only winners here at the moment are the sh:cool:. I'm quite happy sitting here waiting for next update...end of Jan. and at 10% yld., no problem here. Now gotta decide what to do with that nice $10,000+ div from couple weeks back;). Forgot to mention my latest holding is in the green $8000:D.

[Snow Leopard]

not sure I buy that argument tim23 Zara and H&M are taking sales off HLG. Outside of xmas there will be no spillover why go to HLG when the product at Zara and H&M is cheaper, more fashionable and better quality. I know I've asked the question before but who here even shops at HLG and for what reason ?

It seems to be compulsory to quote the above post when being on the not so negative side of things and you do seem to have upset one or two people just a little I do think your view is, how shall I put it, rather narrow.

This is a common fault and not just with you, people fail to see the big picture and that is what you should do your valuations of the future on.

So whilst there may be an element of truth in what you keep banging on about, there are even alternative outcomes for this little bit that you have your blinkered view focused on and then there is the rest of the environment and the outcomes for HLG.

But when all is said and done, usually a lot is said and only a little done, my current valuation for HLG, which I do hold, is a little under the current share price.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[JeremyALD]

Sales are up 10% this year to date, the strongest growth the company has enjoyed in many years. The facts speak for themselves. Honestly you've been pushing this Zara H&M thing for many, many months now, shareholders know about the new competitors.

The other thing worth noting is H&M, Zara and the likes aren't expanding quickly and are very unlikely to given the size and cost of their stores.

Worst case scenario they'll be in all the main centers in a couple of years, however New Zealand has strong population growth, a good economy and Hallensteins has far more reach across New Zealand than most clothing competitors.

I'm 25 and the truth is I wouldn't travel far for clothes. I'll either buy online, or where the most convenient store is. I think most other people in my age group would be the same (especially men).

I do think the uplift in Sylvia Park Hallensteins / Glassons will be largely because of the increased foot traffic for apparel in that area. I've heard about some of my friends who have gone to Sylvia Park to see H&M and have bought a few things from them and a few things from Glassons. Once the extra foot traffic dies down I'd be interesting to see if sales performance drops YOY in Sylvia Park for Glassons & Hallensteins, however I doubt this will have a significant effect on year end profit. It is also possible that the performance in Sylvia Park actually increases, but other stores experience a small decline.

The last thing I want to mention is I've been very impressed by Hallensteins marketing this Christmas. I've recieved several emails from them with great discounts to products. The product line seems a bit more fresh than it used to. They're hoping on board with Chinos ect and are very good and getting you to buy extra products. For example one pair is $70 but two is $100. This way they make a bit more profit overall, albeit at a lower margin.

[tim23]

Boysy - I buy work shirts and trousers from the company and they are just fine was at sylvia park the other day and Zara is in no way cheaper.

[Joshuatree]

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/indu...w-year-experts (http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/87715948/retail-pressures-unlikely-to-ease-in-new-year-experts)

Thanks boysy; good to have an opposing, contrary opinion. Retail can be so cutthroat and competitive; a good reminder. HLG has handled and coped very well over the years and has a n online marketing setup at the mo which is just full noise ahead. A lot of their deals aren't really; just cunningly restructured over and over(hallensteins anyway); becomes the automatic go to place for the mainly young targeted punters or their mums.Im an aberration.

[JeremyALD]

Just got some more at 3.03. last chance for a Christmas bargain :eek2:

[see weed]

Just got some more at 3.03. last chance for a Christmas bargain :eek2:
Me to, made sure buy order was less than their sell order and got them 1c cheaper than my 3.04 buy order:).

[Beagle]

Just got some more at 3.03. last chance for a Christmas bargain :eek2:

Nice buying mate, HLG the gift you give yourself that keeps giving back :)

[winner69]

Boxing day sales booming - HLG probablybdoingbwell.

HLG popular pick in Stocktastic for 2017 - with noodles, percy et al picking it must have bright prospects

[Raz]

Boxing day sales booming - HLG probablybdoingbwell.

HLG popular pick in Stocktastic for 2017 - with noodles, percy et al picking it must have bright prospects

Holidays Winner..no trading..remember to keep you powder dry for when it counts:-)

[winner69]

Holidays Winner..no trading..remember to keep you powder dry for when it counts:-)

Some punters use the quiet days over the Christmas break and do the once a year job of reviewing their portfolios

So many decisions are made this long weekend - the duds will cast out and they will decide which ones to pin their faith on in 2017

[Joshuatree]

Have unsubscribed from HLG deal emails. Serious overkill has turned me right off to all the frenetic bulldust "deals". Many of them are just the same deals rephrased over and over; e.g. T-shirts. Credibility probs;trying too hard for very short term gain. just my aging opinion which may well be irrelevant as their main target mkt are young men/ teenagers.

[JeremyALD]

Their emails are really quite excessive. I've received around 30 this month from them and 2 on Christmas day!!

It's a shame because the marketing is actually quite good, it's just defeated by excessive communication (and too many deals).

Short is sweet. They could learn a thing or two by The Iconic. I get two or so emails from them a month and they've got the balance of communication much better.

I might email Hallensteins feedback. Will let you know how I go.

[percy]

I think this is a problem when subscribing to newletters.
I have had to unsubscribe to a great number from, Hannahs to Fin data,Morningstar,Mauldrin,Finnance News etc.
As for Linkdin,Facebook, and Twitter, the only great news was Lady Gaga sent everyone a Merry Xmas note.Still can't figure out if I am following her,or whether she is following me???.

[Biscuit]

I think this is a problem when subscribing to newletters.
I have had to unsubscribe to a great number from, Hannahs to Fin data,Morningstar,Mauldrin,Finnance News etc.
As for Linkdin,Facebook, and Twitter, the only great news was Lady Gaga sent everyone a Merry Xmas note.Still can't figure out if I am following her,or whether she is following me???.

lol, I'm sure she is following you. Not sure HLG are wrong re overkill on email "deals". Everyone loves a bargin after all.

[Joshuatree]

Doesn't sound like you've been getting their emails Biscuit? Few bargains ; just the same deal in a different way over and over; for T shirts anyway .And twice a day. Def overkill for ME. And wonder if the younger set will turn off as well with this repetition. But as I've said, i have been impressed up until now with HLG leaving no stone unturned in the marketing dept; instore and online.

[Biscuit]

Doesn't sound like you've been getting their emails Biscuit? Few bargains ; just the same deal in a different way over and over; for T shirts anyway .And twice a day. Def overkill for ME. And wonder if the younger set will turn off as well with this repetition. But as I've said, i have been impressed up until now with HLG leaving no stone unturned in the marketing dept; instore and online.

Yes, I get plenty of emails from HLG. I ignore them, they just get sent to trash with all the other emails I don't want to look at. I only buy stuff when I need it. So, when I need a T-shirt (probably never actually - so lets say socks), Mrs Biscuit will say "all your socks have holes in them, you really need to go and buy some more". At that point, or several months later depending on how long I can hold out, I will check up on my HLG emails and keep an eye out for a "bargain". Then I'll buy a dozen identical socks and anything else I might need in the next twelve months. So, for me their system works quite well - I know they are out there with a bargain any time I need them. I guess it is overkill and a negative thing if you are at all times poised and waiting for a really good deal, then you will become disappointed and frustrated. So, maybe not a good marketing strategy overall? I don't know, at least they are in your face to some extent and I know from the many long and vexing conversations I have had with Mrs Biscuit, many people are absolute suckers for a "sale" no matter how illusionary the "sale" really is. With all the money Mrs Biscuit has saved in sales, it is quite surprising to her that we have not retired years ago.

[Raz]

Yes, I get plenty of emails from HLG. I ignore them, they just get sent to trash with all the other emails I don't want to look at. I only buy stuff when I need it. So, when I need a T-shirt (probably never actually - so lets say socks), Mrs Biscuit will say "all your socks have holes in them, you really need to go and buy some more". At that point, or several months later depending on how long I can hold out, I will check up on my HLG emails and keep an eye out for a "bargain". Then I'll buy a dozen identical socks and anything else I might need in the next twelve months. So, for me their system works quite well - I know they are out there with a bargain any time I need them. I guess it is overkill and a negative thing if you are at all times poised and waiting for a really good deal, then you will become disappointed and frustrated. So, maybe not a good marketing strategy overall? I don't know, at least they are in your face to some extent and I know from the many long and vexing conversations I have had with Mrs Biscuit, many people are absolute suckers for a "sale" no matter how illusionary the "sale" really is. With all the money Mrs Biscuit has saved in sales, it is quite surprising to her that we have not retired years ago.

Good grief the frugal kiwi way...however if you have woman as clients..then invest in seriously sharp clothes..you do not have to be good looking however a well dressed man does start from a position where your client will have an open mind you can work with. Best investment you will ever make, my tip or good turn for the day.

[Biscuit]

Good grief the frugal kiwi way...however if you have woman as clients..then invest in seriously sharp clothes..you do not have to be good looking however a well dressed man does start from a position where your client will have an open mind you can work with. Best investment you will ever make, my tip or good turn for the day.

Yes, good advice I know. I'm blessed with a job in academia and I can generally turn up to work with holes in my socks, my shirt inside out or food dropped down the front of my shirt as I and other academics do on occasion. It just does not seem to matter so much in that sphere. But yes, I know that a good scrub up and sharp clothes (ironed and not inside out or round the wrong way, or with holes, or faded or from the fifties) goes a long way to smooth ones way through life. But unfortunately some of us just are not made that way.

[Joshuatree]

Delightful; gave me a smile:t_up:. While we are on task; i have an extreme quirk which drives my daughter crazy. More often then not i put my t shirt on inside out , back to front or both. Haven't gone off with a tea towel on my shoulder though but a few nights ago walked down to pick my daughter up from the gym and then walked behind her a few steps and activated the multicoloured LED battery operated xmas lights that i had threaded in and out of my white shirt and over my wide brimmed hat. When she did look back at me her instinct kicked in and she sprinted off.:t_up:

[percy]

Delightful; gave me a smile:t_up:. While we are on task; i have an extreme quirk which drives my daughter crazy. More often then not i put my t shirt on inside out , back to front or both. Haven't gone off with a tea towel on my shoulder though but a few nights ago walked down to pick my daughter up from the gym and then walked behind her a few steps and activated the multicoloured LED battery operated xmas lights that i had threaded in and out of my white shirt and over my wide brimmed hat. When she did look back at me her instinct kicked in and she sprinted off.:t_up:

Sounds as though her mother is of sound mind.!..lol.

[winner69]

Delightful; gave me a smile:t_up:. While we are on task; i have an extreme quirk which drives my daughter crazy. More often then not i put my t shirt on inside out , back to front or both. Haven't gone off with a tea towel on my shoulder though but a few nights ago walked down to pick my daughter up from the gym and then walked behind her a few steps and activated the multicoloured LED battery operated xmas lights that i had threaded in and out of my white shirt and over my wide brimmed hat. When she did look back at me her instinct kicked in and she sprinted off.:t_up:

photo please

[Joshuatree]

Forever emblazoned in my/ her mind.A Minties moment.

[JeremyALD]

Shaping up to be a fairly chilly summer. Hopefully that doesn't impact sales too much

[winner69]

Shaping up to be a fairly chilly summer. Hopefully that doesn't impact sales too much

Good for a few more sweats etc - prob more $ margin in one than tee shirts eh

And Andrew Little seen shopping for a cardigan - wants to look the part rumour has it

[Beagle]

Shaping up to be a fairly chilly summer. Hopefully that doesn't impact sales too much

Early days. Almost every year its the same, the good hot summer weather doesn't start till the second week of January.

[JeremyALD]

Early days. Almost every year its the same, the good hot summer weather doesn't start till the second week of January.

Just a shame because that's when most of us start back at work 🙄

[winner69]

Share price on fire today

HLG going to be a star in 2017

[BlackPeter]

Share price on fire today

HLG going to be a star in 2017

no false excitement - by now back down to 305. On the other hand, while I seldom subscribe to manipulation theories, but this one (200 shares at 305 after some 70k for 315) does smell like one.

[macduffy]

And back up to $3.15. I'd put that down to thin, "holiday mode" trading.

[JeremyALD]

Its been doing that for the last month or so and agree it's mainly because of thin trading which isn't a bad thing. Not many people are selling Hallensteins and buyers are likely waiting for the Xmas trading announcement to see if they dip their toes in the water.

Hoping for a good Xmas trading announcement and this will be $3.50 before the next divvy payment I'm sure.

[Beagle]

Early days. Almost every year its the same, the good hot summer weather doesn't start till the second week of January.

As predicted. Forecast all this coming week for Auckland is mid 20's (Goldilocks summer temperature for hounds who don't enjoy getting too hot). No worries for HLG summer clothing sales.

[Raz]

As predicted. Forecast all this coming week for Auckland is mid 20's (Goldilocks summer temperature for hounds who don't enjoy getting too hot). No worries for HLG summer clothing sales.

Went to the tennis..talk about suck weather, the temp is not the only issue with the weather mate.

[winner69]

As predicted. Forecast all this coming week for Auckland is mid 20's (Goldilocks summer temperature for hounds who don't enjoy getting too hot). No worries for HLG summer clothing sales.

Yep mid 20's is forecast HLG profit this year - I reckon $23m/$24m which is just under 40 cents a share.

[JeremyALD]

Went to the tennis..talk about suck weather, the temp is not the only issue with the weather mate.

One thing I've found interesting is Barkers has run it's sale continually since Boxing Day. They have had significant discounts on all clothing. I've never seen Barkers run a storewide sale for this long. I know they cater for slightly different markets, but it makes me wonder if they're struggling a bit.

Weather wise apparently it's been average as so far and very windy, but who knows we'll probably see a good summer Feb to April. As Roger says, historically it's pretty late in NZ.

When will we get the next update from Hallensteins. Late Jan is it?

[macduffy]

Went to the tennis..talk about suck weather, the temp is not the only issue with the weather mate.

Now you're starting to sound like that Ms Williams!

;)

[JeremyALD]

So I was doing some research last night and had a good read of the Annual Report and ASM. I'm trying to make my own assumptions for NPAT in FY17 if things trend in a similar way for the rest of the year. I appreciate this is a long way out, but thought it would be fun to create some assumptions based on what we've heard so far.

My observations were below:

Hallensteins

Still a very competitive environment and unlikely to see sales growth in FY17. Flat so far this year. They may get a bit more margin from products this year, but competition is resulting in some margin cutting.

My guess is NPAT will be slightly up this year due to a better winter trading period and improved margins due to exchange rates ect. I predict NPAT at 9 million, up from 8.5 million in FY16.

Storm

Sales are actually behind so far this year, but they have opened a new store in Queenstown which should lift revenue and sales.

Guessing NPAT will be flat at .8 million, but for good measure and the new store will round up to 1 million.

Glassons Australia

Here's where the big turnaround will be and where I project long term will come from. In recent announcements, Hallensteins is confident the store will return to profit in FY17. Sales are up over 10% and the stores are seeing a good turnaround.

Guess is NPAT will be between 1 and 2 million, up from a loss of 1.9 million in FY16. I think results will further improve in FY18 which is great for the Group.

Glassons New Zealand

Improved margin is expected to be witnessed in FY17 and sales are up so far. Glassons NZ is always a solid performer and this year should be no different.

Based on the above sales increase estimating NPAT of 6 million up from 5.5 million in FY17.

Overall

Based on fairly conservative estimates and what the Group has announced I'm predicting NPAT for Hallensteins in FY17 in the range of 16 to 18 million. There will definitely be considerable improvement in the Glassons business, with fairly flat sales across Storm and Hallensteins; however higher margins should also improve their respective NPAT performance.

Performance should be fairly in line with the Groups performance in 2013 and 2015 and I would think all going well should support a SP above $3.50.

[winner69]

Yep mid 20's is forecast HLG profit this year - I reckon $23m/$24m which is just under 40 cents a share.


Sorry Roger I thought in your post you were talking about HLG profit forecast when you mentioned the mid 20's and not the weather.

What happens when one gets euphoric - they only see what they want!

Never mind $23m/$24m FY17 profit it's going to be

[JeremyALD]

Sorry Roger I thought in your post you were talking about HLG profit forecast when you mentioned the mid 20's and not the weather.

What happens when one gets euphoric - they only see what they want!

Never mind $23m/$24m FY17 profit it's going to be

I don't think so. Reading the report I can't see a lot of profit growth coming from Hallenstein Borthers this year, even with a better exchange rate. They have said sales are flat and margins are still under some pressure.

Glassons AU and NZ will both see a very good performance this year, but I think profits in the 20s will have to wait until FY18, UNLESS Glassons AU pulls out a bigger profit than my forecast ;)

[Beagle]

Sorry Roger I thought in your post you were talking about HLG profit forecast when you mentioned the mid 20's and not the weather.

What happens when one gets euphoric - they only see what they want!

Never mind $23m/$24m FY17 profit it's going to be

LOL good one mate.


So I was doing some research last night and had a good read of the Annual Report and ASM. I'm trying to make my own assumptions for NPAT in FY17 if things trend in a similar way for the rest of the year. I appreciate this is a long way out, but thought it would be fun to create some assumptions based on what we've heard so far.

My observations were below:

Hallensteins

Still a very competitive environment and unlikely to see sales growth in FY17. Flat so far this year. They may get a bit more margin from products this year, but competition is resulting in some margin cutting.

My guess is NPAT will be slightly up this year due to a better winter trading period and improved margins due to exchange rates ect. I predict NPAT at 9 million, up from 8.5 million in FY16.

Storm

Sales are actually behind so far this year, but they have opened a new store in Queenstown which should lift revenue and sales.

Guessing NPAT will be flat at .8 million, but for good measure and the new store will round up to 1 million.

Glassons Australia

Here's where the big turnaround will be and where I project long term will come from. In recent announcements, Hallensteins is confident the store will return to profit in FY17. Sales are up over 10% and the stores are seeing a good turnaround.

Guess is NPAT will be between 1 and 2 million, up from a loss of 1.9 million in FY16. I think results will further improve in FY18 which is great for the Group.

Glassons New Zealand

Improved margin is expected to be witnessed in FY17 and sales are up so far. Glassons NZ is always a solid performer and this year should be no different.

Based on the above sales increase estimating NPAT of 6 million up from 5.5 million in FY17.

Overall

Based on fairly conservative estimates and what the Group has announced I'm predicting NPAT for Hallensteins in FY17 in the range of 16 to 18 million. There will definitely be considerable improvement in the Glassons business, with fairly flat sales across Storm and Hallensteins; however higher margins should also improve their respective NPAT performance.

Performance should be fairly in line with the Groups performance in 2013 and 2015 and I would think all going well should support a SP above $3.50.

Good post overall mate but have another look at what the company has said recently about Glassons sales performance in N.Z. in terms of margin and substantial sales growth. For my money you're significantly lower than my expectations for Glassons N.Z. Don't forget e.commerce channels too growing at 24% per annum and now representing 7% of group sales.

[JeremyALD]

LOL good one mate.



Good post overall mate but have another look at what the company has said recently about Glassons sales performance in N.Z. in terms of margin and substantial sales growth. For my money you're significantly lower than my expectations for Glassons N.Z. Don't forget e.commerce channels too growing at 24% per annum and now representing 7% of group sales.

I hope I'm low overall Roger! I think 16 to 18 million is very conservative and just shows that this is undervalued. If they post over 20 million NPAT historically the SP would go well above $4 so I hope you're right :)

Positively there's a lot of room for growth in AU too. If AU Glassons started posting NPAT similar to NZ, we'd be well into the 20s.

In relation to e-commerce I get a bit confused here. Do they bundle this all into one result for the whole Group, or is it also put into divisional sales? For example if Hallenstein Brothers reports a flat result YOY, but e-commerce is up 7% does that mean that store sales are down and internet sales are up, or are store sales flat and internet sales up?

It's great that e-commerce is growing, but if that's just a transition of existing store sales to online channels it doesn't particularly help if you get my drift.

[winner69]

Jeremy - you said - Performance should be fairly in line with the Groups performance in 2013 and 2015 and I would think all going well should support a SP above $3.50.

So if $16m-$$18m profit (very very conservative) supports $3.50 share price what would $23m/$24m profit support?

Over $5 surely

That's what i'm looking forward to