HLG - Hallenstein Glasson

[Beagle]

I hope I'm low overall Roger! I think 16 to 18 million is very conservative and just shows that this is undervalued. If they post over 20 million NPAT historically the SP would go well above $4 so I hope you're right :)

Positively there's a lot of room for growth in AU too. If AU Glassons started posting NPAT similar to NZ, we'd be well into the 20s.

In relation to e-commerce I get a bit confused here. Do they bundle this all into one result for the whole Group, or is it also put into divisional sales? For example if Hallenstein Brothers reports a flat result YOY, but e-commerce is up 7% does that mean that store sales are down and internet sales are up, or are store sales flat and internet sales up?

It's great that e-commerce is growing, but if that's just a transition of existing store sales to online channels it doesn't particularly help if you get my drift.

Plenty of room for interpretation either way with the e.commerce thing mate, agree its not clear. For me the key metric is growth in group sales of 10%. The group hasn't grown at anything like that rate for many many years and with better margins this year too. Future looks good and SP well underpinned by 13.4% gross divvy yield, (30 / 0.72) / 311.

[DarkHorse]

I just bought a decent parcel - thanks to ST stock picking competition! I only delved into it despite my skepticism of the sector because I was searching for a fifth undervalued stock, now there are not so many GARP stocks on the NZX. I highly recommend reading the annual report. As in TNR and THL, we are well-positioned for 2017 :)

[nextbigthing]

(very very conservative)

Over $5 surely

That's what i'm looking forward to

$4 by Christmas. That's the word on the street. You heard it here first.

(Winner says $5 but he has been drinking MOA).

[BlackPeter]

...
In relation to e-commerce I get a bit confused here. Do they bundle this all into one result for the whole Group, or is it also put into divisional sales? For example if Hallenstein Brothers reports a flat result YOY, but e-commerce is up 7% does that mean that store sales are down and internet sales are up, or are store sales flat and internet sales up?

It's great that e-commerce is growing, but if that's just a transition of existing store sales to online channels it doesn't particularly help if you get my drift.

good question - and yes, they try hard to muddy the waters - don't they?

However - if you look e.g. at the chairmans presentation from the recent AGM (https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/249988.pdf) you find that he lists the $ incomes for the various segments (i.e. Hallensteins, Glassons AUS and NZ and Storm) and adding these $ values up we get already 100% of last years revenue ($224m). After these 4 segments he talks about the % increase of e-commerce (without adding a $ number). I think it is fair to assume that this is not an additional segment, but just describing sales moving from brick and mortar stores into the internet. I am afraid - no additional sales, just a different sales channel.

[winner69]

$4 by Christmas. That's the word on the street. You heard it here first.

(Winner says $5 but he has been drinking MOA).

Moa hell now - shareholder in Parrot Dog I am

[winner69]

good question - and yes, they try hard to muddy the waters - don't they?

However - if you look e.g. at the chairmans presentation from the recent AGM (https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/249988.pdf) you find that he lists the $ incomes for the various segments (i.e. Hallensteins, Glassons AUS and NZ and Storm) and adding these $ values up we get already 100% of last years revenue ($224m). After these 4 segments he talks about the % increase of e-commerce (without adding a $ number). I think it is fair to assume that this is not an additional segment, but just describing sales moving from brick and mortar stores into the internet. I am afraid - no additional sales, just a different sales channel.

How most treat online sales - KMD / WHS / BRG report like this

Better getting / keeping the sale than losing it all together ...and you never know some new sales

[percy]

How most treat online sales - KMD / WHS / BRG report like this

Better getting / keeping the sale than losing it all together ...and you never know some new sales

I take online sales to be extra sales that firms would not achieve from their stores.
There is/are a growing number of people who only shop online.
When sales on line are growing at nearly 25% to 30% pa and achieving between 7% and 10% of total sales we can understand just how important they are to retailers.

[iceman]

I take online sales to be extra sales that firms would not achieve from their stores.
There is/are a growing number of people who only shop online.
When sales on line are growing at nearly 25% to 30% pa and achieving between 7% and 10% of total sales we can understand just how important they are to retailers.

I think retailers are increasingly directing customers to their websites as well. Only yesterday my wife and I were directed to their websites by retail staff in both Mitre10 and Briscoes to buy online goods that they did not have in stock. We did.

[Beagle]

good question - and yes, they try hard to muddy the waters - don't they?

However - if you look e.g. at the chairmans presentation from the recent AGM (https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/249988.pdf) you find that he lists the $ incomes for the various segments (i.e. Hallensteins, Glassons AUS and NZ and Storm) and adding these $ values up we get already 100% of last years revenue ($224m). After these 4 segments he talks about the % increase of e-commerce (without adding a $ number). I think it is fair to assume that this is not an additional segment, but just describing sales moving from brick and mortar stores into the internet. I am afraid - no additional sales, just a different sales channel.

Thanks for doing the legwork on this BP. Another way to look at it is that their e-commerce sales growing at 24% is one of the reasons why they're currently growing their overall sales at 10% which as mentioned before is the fastest growth rate for as far back as I can find comparative data in annual reports, (from memory from research I did before Christmas) that's the best growth rate in over 10 years.

[winner69]

Retail in Australia not that good but ...

.....Over the past year, sales of clothing, footwear and personal accessories recorded the fastest pace of growth all categories at 5.8% (ABS)

So no reasonw why HLG Aussie storesaren't doing well

[Raz]

I think retailers are increasingly directing customers to their websites as well. Only yesterday my wife and I were directed to their websites by retail staff in both Mitre10 and Briscoes to buy online goods that they did not have in stock. We did.

I have seen this on a Board I'm on however it really is often cannibalise a traditional sale by redirection or showrooming where you have the prevailing lowest price on the market. Generally this is split for management to try to determine the channel.

[macduffy]

I have seen this on a Board I'm on however it really is often cannibalise a traditional sale by redirection or showrooming where you have the prevailing lowest price on the market. Generally this is split for management to try to determine the channel.

I'm not sure if this is really cannabalising a sale if the alternative - where the item isn't in stock - is to send the potential customer to another retailer!

[LAC]

Hi Guys,
Just been following this thread and went back to read all the Hallenstein announcements.
Which report/announcement have you guys fired up about the NPAT at 23-24mill?
I agree with the price being undervalued but I have it around 17mill best case.....I think I am missing something. Can someone please direct me to something data.
Much appreciated.

[see weed]

Yep mid 20's is forecast HLG profit this year - I reckon $23m/$24m which is just under 40 cents a share.
Hey LAC, do you mean this quote? There should be an update in next 1 to 4 weeks.

[JeremyALD]

Hey LAC, do you mean this quote? There should be an update in next 1 to 4 weeks.

I am starting to get a bit worried about this weather. Everyone is talking about how bad summer is in Auckland and Wellington around the office and looking at the forecast it's going to be crap here for the next ten days. There's also articles on the herald stating that summer is definitely later than usual.

Hallensteins aren't getting much luck with the weather, a warm winter and now an average summer? Maybe I'm speaking too soon, but I wouldn't be buying beach clothes at the moment that's for sure.

[Beagle]

http://www.metservice.com/towns-cities/auckland/auckland-central#!/ten-day Not one of the better summers so far in Auckland, I think that's a fair comment and the immediate outlook isn't especially brilliant.

[LAC]

Hey LAC, do you mean this quote? There should be an update in next 1 to 4 weeks.

Yeah that quote.....its a pretty large number 23-24mill. Is that just a shot in the dark or has been made through some data being provided which shows revenue has grown and we are assuming the margins for that NPAT?
Anyone else see NPAT at 23-24 million? Just like to know what you guys are expecting...

[winner69]

I am starting to get a bit worried about this weather. Everyone is talking about how bad summer is in Auckland and Wellington around the office and looking at the forecast it's going to be crap here for the next ten days. There's also articles on the herald stating that summer is definitely later than usual.

Hallensteins aren't getting much luck with the weather, a warm winter and now an average summer? Maybe I'm speaking too soon, but I wouldn't be buying beach clothes at the moment that's for sure.

You worry too much jeremy

Latest Stats NZ release on Card spend or December is headlined RECORD MONTH FOR CARD SPENDING

Apparel a pretty broad industry group but spend was up more than 4% on Dec 15

No worries

HLG still heading to well over $20m profit this year

[percy]

I am starting to get a bit worried about this weather. Everyone is talking about how bad summer is in Auckland and Wellington around the office and looking at the forecast it's going to be crap here for the next ten days. There's also articles on the herald stating that summer is definitely later than usual.

Hallensteins aren't getting much luck with the weather, a warm winter and now an average summer? Maybe I'm speaking too soon, but I wouldn't be buying beach clothes at the moment that's for sure.

Unsettled,changeable,cold and wet is great for the likes of HLG,because people can't go to the beach,they head for the shops.

[JeremyALD]

You worry too much jeremy

Latest Stats NZ release on Card spend or December is headlined RECORD MONTH FOR CARD SPENDING

Apparel a pretty broad industry group but spend was up more than 4% on Dec 15

No worries

HLG still heading to well over $20m profit this year

I'm looking forward to the next announcement Winner perhaps my worries can disappear! Good thing is it's not far away :)

[Beagle]

Yeah that quote.....its a pretty large number 23-24mill. Is that just a shot in the dark or has been made through some data being provided which shows revenue has grown and we are assuming the margins for that NPAT?
Anyone else see NPAT at 23-24 million? Just like to know what you guys are expecting...

My most optimistic outlook was up there but since then we've seen the dollar come back from 74 cents American and the summer weather being a little unhelpful.
On the other hand retail card data as Winner has suggested has been very strong...looking forward to the company update later this month.
http://www.interest.co.nz/news/85481/shoppers-spent-more-ever-over-christmas-period-16-electronic-card-spending-going-towards

[brend]

the weather has been ok right? not just warm.

Its been sunny for weeks just no heat. Keeps the flies away :)

[Raz]

the weather has been ok right? not just warm.

Its been sunny for weeks just no heat. Keeps the flies away :)

Where are you which covers everywhere:-)

[Beagle]

Got pretty hot and steamy yesterday in Auckland at 28 degrees yesterday and most places around N.Z. looking at the network news weather at 6.00 were very hot.
Conclusion: Summer has now started. Feel sorry for the poor folk who have to be back at work.

[Leftfield]

I've been reading and watching the bullish comments re HLG and agree that the short term looks promising however this recent article gives a less positive outlook for the longer term.....

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-01-13/one-chart-that-explains-why-traders-are-shorting-retail-stocks-like-crazy

[JeremyALD]

I guess their online presence is growing at a good rate though so that should offset some of the in-store decline.

I do think they need to think very carefully about referbing stores though and make sure they're going to get an ROI. Too many places spend a whole lot doing up stores and don't make it make back on increased revenue.

On that note it seems Hallesteins has taken a smart approach and that's why the NZ referbs for glassons have gone at a slower pace than AU glassons.

[see weed]

Eleven weeks for next div. 13.5c or 16c?......5% to 10% increase of sp including div by that time? Positive results by end of Jan? Where to from there? Back to AIR? Happy New Year?:cool::t_up:.

[winner69]

looking back on the timing of updates

Really good or bad announcements mid Jan (like this week) and ordinary boring ones early Feb with full reslts end of March

Let's hoe there is an announcement this week ...a REALLY REALLY STUNNING ONE

[Beagle]

Good to see the $Kiwi well and truly back above 70 cents U.S., (currently just over 72 cents). Importers including HLG will be pleased to see that.

[percy]

Lovely day to get people back from the beaches and back into the shops.
Retailers just love changeable weather,because it keeps the cash registers ringing.!

[JeremyALD]

Lovely day to get people back from the beaches and back into the shops.
Retailers just love changeable weather,because it keeps the cash registers ringing.!

You're obviously not talking about the South Island Percy, or Wellington which is forecast to have 160km winds overnight. Hopefully Hallensteins still has some jackets in stock haha

[percy]

You're obviously not talking about the South Island Percy, or Wellington which is forecast to have 160km winds overnight. Hopefully Hallensteins still has some jackets in stock haha

JeremyALD.
Retailers are well positioned for changeable weather.For example, check out the colouring in, and activity books that are at the front of your book store on a wet day.
HLG have been at the forefront of retail for so long they know all the tricks of the trade.!

[winner69]

Retail Watch reports clothing category sales for December up 5.9% on previous year

One of largest growth categories as well

All looking good for the expected stunning H1 result and full year guidance

Some will look back and say 'jeez, wasn't $3.14 a real bargain. wish i had bought heaps'

Well over 4 bucks in a few months

[babymonster]

not sure anyone has covered the charting part... but it looks like forming a bullish ascending triangle, likely it will break 3.20 and up...

PS, i am not a good chartist...

[peat]

not sure anyone has covered the charting part... but it looks like forming a bullish ascending triangle, likely it will break 3.20 and up...

PS, i am not a good chartist...

yeh a reasonable observation. Note the massive resistance at 3.40 - 3.90 though
8620

[winner69]

not sure anyone has covered the charting part... but it looks like forming a bullish ascending triangle, likely it will break 3.20 and up...

PS, i am not a good chartist...

You could be right

Once it gets through the 315 / 320 barrier its all on - 400 beckons

(That recent 16 cent divie makes chart look worse than it really is)

[percy]

Good aye. If you are right then am in for $100k gain:cool:. If you are wrong, then am only gonna make $30k div.:t_up:. So if you are right or wrong.......:).

See weed you are an inspiration to all "well positioned" sharetraders.
You have taken us up to a new level....lol.

[see weed]

See weed you are an inspiration to all "well positioned" sharetraders.
You have taken us up to a new level....lol.
Thanks perc, just trying a little experiment.

[nextbigthing]

Let's hoe

Wait, do you mean tidy the vege garden or the other option

From post 1028.

[winner69]

Wait, do you mean tidy the vege garden or the other option

From post 1028.


Better better be the garden option

Get the hoe out - the garden will prosper - and hope sees a $4 HLG share price.

[Beagle]

Watching the first of the new Breakfast shows for 2017 on T.V. 1 this morning and all everyone is talking about is the absence of summer. I brought up the next ten day forecast for Auckland on my computer this morning and nothing to write home about either. They were saying the long term forecast for early February is for unusually cool conditions too. Slightly grumpy. Wonder if there is just a little bit of truth with CVT's shocker announcement about very poor summer weather effects today...hope none of it rubs off on HLG.

[JeremyALD]

Watching the first of the new Breakfast shows for 2017 on T.V. 1 this morning and all everyone is talking about is the absence of summer. I brought up the next ten day forecast for Auckland on my computer this morning and nothing to write home about either. They were saying the long term forecast for early February is for unusually cool conditions too. Slightly grumpy. Wonder if there is just a little bit of truth with CVT's shocker announcement about very poor summer weather effects today...hope none of it rubs off on HLG.

I think it will impact sales in Jan and Feb, but those are pretty slow sales months anyway. December sales would be strong as people wouldn't of expected the summer we've had and been preparing for a better summer.

I did go into Glassons and Hallebsteins at North West at 2pm today and neither had any customers at all - but to be honest the whole mall was dead. There also wasn't much winter range. Lots of sales on shorts.

How's the summer been in Australia? Hopefully a hot one and Glassons can continue its strong performance there.

[see weed]

$3.22.....The Great Snail Race.... for now?

[Joshuatree]

When i drop in to inspect my local store; every rack is jammed full; its hard to get a shirt out sometimes without it snagging.

[see weed]

When i drop in to inspect my local store; every rack is jammed full; its hard to get a shirt out sometimes without it snagging.
What time of the day, morning or afternoon? Maybe they stock up in morning ready for the lunchtime rush on all those $10 sales.

[Joshuatree]

I drop in at different times of the day and racks are always full. Maybe a strategy to always have maximum product out there.

[peat]

I drop in at different times of the day and racks are always full. Maybe a strategy to always have maximum product out there.
no shop wants to look empty

[JeremyALD]

$3.22.....The Great Snail Race.... for now?

When do they usually provide an Xmas trading update? I'm presuming it'll come soon?

[Joshuatree]

no shop wants to look empty

Neither does it want to look like nothing is selling. But they will have their experience and Mkt psychology sorted so I'm ignorant.

[winner69]

looking back on the timing of updates

Really good or bad announcements mid Jan (like this week) and ordinary boring ones early Feb with full results end of March

Let's hope there is an announcement this week ...a REALLY REALLY STUNNING ONE

Reminder for you Jeremy

Looking atvearly February now - boring one by the looks of it

[JeremyALD]

Reminder for you Jeremy

Looking atvearly February now - boring one by the looks of it

Just re-read the annual meeting. They said a further trading update will be made late Jan so hopefully we'll get something before Feb. I'm picking Monday next week.

[Beagle]

Reminder for you Jeremy

Looking atvearly February now - boring one by the looks of it

Stock appears to be in a nice slow and boring uptrend...we like be bored that way :)

[JeremyALD]

Looking at the chart today it's in a beautiful uptrend. Only 6 sellers on the market. Could get to 3.30 by the end of the week.

Everyone is clearing expecting a good announcement shortly, especially given strong Xmas sales. I'm getting excited given this is my largest holding!

[Beagle]

$Kiwi up over 73 cents U.S. this morning...nice tailwind developing for importers like HLG.

[Beagle]

Looking at the chart today it's in a beautiful uptrend. Only 6 sellers on the market. Could get to 3.30 by the end of the week.

Everyone is clearing expecting a good announcement shortly, especially given strong Xmas sales. I'm getting excited given this is my largest holding!

End of the day probably mate :)

[winner69]

End of the day probably mate :)

.....and then more


Six months ago price was mid 260's - a 30% gain since (with divies)

[huxley]

Good news on the way? $3.30 this afternoon!

[Raz]

.....and then more


Six months ago price was mid 260's - a 30% gain since (with divies)

Yes that is when I bought a substantial parcel..I owe Rodger a beer for that one..prior I only had 10000 shares.

[Raz]

$Kiwi up over 73 cents U.S. this morning...nice tailwind developing for importers like HLG.

ha depends when they are buying and cover in place:-)

[JeremyALD]

Yes that is when I bought a substantial parcel..I owe Rodger a beer for that one..prior I only had 10000 shares.

Only 10,000 shares. You guys have too much spare capital :D

[winner69]

Yes that is when I bought a substantial parcel..I owe Rodger a beer for that one..prior I only had 10000 shares.


........Roger owes me a few beers for that one as well

[Beagle]

Yes that is when I bought a substantial parcel..I owe Rodger a beer for that one..prior I only had 10000 shares.

You're welcome but I'll have to defer cashing in on that as the fat hound has overindulged from the generous HLG December dividend and is now on a rabbit food diet, (min 10 kg target weight loss) with no alcohol allowed :ohmy:

Bid $3.32 now....and heading north :t_up:

[Beagle]

........Roger owes me a few beers for that one as well

Yes if I recall correctly, you started barking first :) I hereby authorize the transfer of said Raz beers to W69...saved 1 kg of weight right there lol.

[winner69]

Don't forget HLG was well $5 not that long ago

And probably doing better now than then

$3.30 still cheap as

[Raz]

Blardy hell sounds like I owe Winner a beer or two now as well..given their reputation... sounds expensive... my parcel cashed up may not be enough to come out even.

Seriously was a great tip..so obvious when I had a closer look..like all good insights.

[winner69]

I drop in at different times of the day and racks are always full. Maybe a strategy to always have maximum product out there.

HLG stock management is world class (if stock turns and GMROI are appropriate measures)

Good having most of their stock on the shop shelves getting sold .....better than sitting in a distribution centre(s)

[winner69]

Westpac guru commentary on latest December quarter CPI numbers included 'we are surprised by gains in clothing .....'

Jeez appears as if cost of clothes going up (number was 1.0% from Sep to Dec) ....at a time when any said prices were going to be ravaged by those awful new global entrants making the market so competitive etc etc

All looking good for HLG this year

Share price in a few months time - much more than $3.30

[winner69]

Westpac guru commentary on latest December quarter CPI numbers included 'we are surprised by gains in clothing .....'

Jeez appears as if cost of clothes going up (number was 1.0% from Sep to Dec) ....at a time when any said prices were going to be ravaged by those awful new global entrants making the market so competitive etc etc

All looking good for HLG this year

Share price in a few months time - much more than $3.30

Jeez, just image if HLG selling prices are actually 1% higher than expected

And that feeds through to margin - 1% on $230m - could be another $2.3m margin

What was percy's forecast again - maybe eps of 45 cents

[percy]

Jeez, just image if HLG selling prices are actually 1% higher than expected

And that feeds through to margin - 1% on $230m - could be another $2.3m margin

What was percy's forecast again - maybe eps of 45 cents
Sounds as though you have caught Trump's "alternative facts" as my eps, post #871 13/12/2016 , was for between 30 and 35 cents,and most probably at the upper end.
However, I would be "over the moon" if they were between 35 and 45 cents.!!..lol

[winner69]

Sounds as though you have caught Trump's "alternative facts" as my eps, post #871 13/12/2016 , was for between 30 and 35 cents,and most probably at the upper end.
However, I would be "over the moon" if they were between 35 and 45 cents.!!..lol

Yes you did say 35 cents as the top end .....but you did reckon i'd out bid you and go to 40 cents

That 45 cents was a typo in that post - meant to be 40 cents - still on the cards I reckon

[winner69]

Close at 337 - pretty good

While the world stays in this happy mood might even go to 350 tomorrow

[Beagle]

Close at 337 - pretty good

While the world stays in this happy mood might even go to 350 tomorrow

Good day today. Maybe a few leaks coming out of the number crunchers bunker ?

[see weed]

$3.22.....The Great Snail Race.... for now?
$3.37....Run Rabbit Run.....$3.50.....:t_up:.

[peat]

3rd Feb for update

[Turtle2]

Trading update to be issued on Friday 3 February. Should be a goodie :)

[see weed]

Trading update to be issued on Friday 3 February. Should be a goodie :)
Why would they give a one week warning of a trading update? And have they ever done that before? What is different this time? Or is it a standard procedure HLG has started to use this year?:confused:.

[percy]

Why would they give a one week warning of a trading update? And have they ever done that before? What is different this time? Or is it a standard procedure HLG has started to use this year?:confused:.

The Chairman did state in his agm speech, there would be a trading update late January,so the announcement that the update will now be on the 3rd of February is just good manners.

[winner69]

Why would they give a one week warning of a trading update? And have they ever done that before? What is different this time? Or is it a standard procedure HLG has started to use this year?:confused:.

Might have a Board meeting that day (or day before) and trading update ison the agenda

[see weed]

The Chairman did state in his agm speech, there would be a trading update late January,so the announcement that the update will now be on the 3rd of February is just good manners.
Thanks perc. Must be taking them a lot longer to telly up all that extra millions they made over Christmas:D.

[percy]

Thanks perc. Must be taking them a lot longer to telly up all that extra millions they made over Christmas:D.

You are on to it.!!!...lol

[percy]

Last year's announcement was on the 5th Feb for the 6 month period ending 1st Feb 2016.
So this year's announcement will be for the same 6 month period.
Makes sense.

[waikare]

Thanks perc. Must be taking them a lot longer to telly up all that extra millions they made over Christmas:D.


Or perhaps could be bad news and releasing it on Friday just before the long weekend (Waitangi Day)......................

[percy]

Or perhaps could be bad news and releasing it on Friday just before the long weekend (Waitangi Day)......................

Not so.
In fact they are announcing their 6 months ended 1st February 2 days earlier than last year.
Can't see any update before the end of the 6 month period, being really worthwhile.

[winner69]

Originally Posted by winner69
looking back on the timing of updates

Really good or bad announcements mid Jan (like this week) and ordinary boring ones early Feb with full results end of March





But several times they have announced something mid January .......and they have been really good or bad ones

So if history repeats next weeks announcement will be so so ...a boring one

BUT IT WILL BE STUNNING .....has to be eh

Though did the market take fright yesterday - no, because in words of guru comentators it was just profit taking (possibly raz colecting his dividend early)

[see weed]

But several times they have announced something mid January .......and they have been really good or bad ones

So if history repeats next weeks announcement will be so so ...a boring one

BUT IT WILL BE STUNNING .....has to be eh

Though did the market take fright yesterday - no, because in words of guru comentators it was just profit taking (possibly raz colecting his dividend early)
Very light volume, only 19,300 traded. I find the the sp can swing up or down
10c on a few thousand shares. Might be an interesting week leading up to Friday.

[Beagle]

But several times they have announced something mid January .......and they have been really good or bad ones

So if history repeats next weeks announcement will be so so ...a boring one

BUT IT WILL BE STUNNING .....has to be eh

Though did the market take fright yesterday - no, because in words of guru comentators it was just profit taking (possibly raz colecting his dividend early)

Not pointing fingers but there was a lot of "very positive" comments on Thursday, some would call it ramping but I couldn't possibly suggest that and this thread was much quieter on Friday. SP followed tone of this thread, coincidence or did the very positive comments the previous day influence some buyers ?

[Turtle2]

Not pointing fingers but there was a lot of "very positive" comments on Thursday, some would call it ramping but I couldn't possibly suggest that and this thread was much quieter on Friday. SP followed tone of this thread, coincidence or did the very positive comments the previous day influence some buyers ?

There was around 3% difference between the buy and sell orders at close on Thursday, with the price at the upper end. I think it's just the light volume, and due to the big jump on Thursday.

[huxley]

Lol, I doubt the comments on this thread would've made a material impact. Wasn't it just a couple of tiny parcels that pushed it up to $3.37?

[JeremyALD]

Lol, I doubt the comments on this thread would've made a material impact. Wasn't it just a couple of tiny parcels that pushed it up to $3.37?

I must admit I sold a small share at $3.35. Still have kept the majority but thought the timing was pretty good to make a decent gain.

Hallensteins is trading on small volumes at the moment so tends to go + or - 10 cents over any couple of days. Interestingly it's pushed above $3.20 though which has been above the usual resistance. People are obviously feeling fairly confident about the announcement. It will be the first time we get a proper forcast too which will be great. Let's just hope it meets expectations!

[macduffy]

Lol, I doubt the comments on this thread would've made a material impact. Wasn't it just a couple of tiny parcels that pushed it up to $3.37?

That's because it's a relatively small, tightly held company. Less than 60m shares on issue of which Tim Glasson holds around 20%.

[winner69]

Lol, I doubt the comments on this thread would've made a material impact. Wasn't it just a couple of tiny parcels that pushed it up to $3.37?

Average volume 50,000 odd a day

But some punters were keen to buy the other the other day eh ... maybe they were swayed by the 'positive tone' on this thread ....pointing the finger at anyone as Roger puts it

Whatever, they'll be fine and happy as when share price goes past 4 bucks

[Beagle]

It was just a cheeky good natured dig mate, trust you understand :)

[winner69]

Down again today

Methinks some punters are collecting their dividend now ......maybe expecting an ordinary sort of announcement on Friday and thanking those who pushed the price up

Be interesting to see how Glassons are going - hope that some haven't put too much faith in Di, might be disappointed

[huxley]

Down again today

Methinks some punters are collecting their dividend now ......maybe expecting an ordinary sort of announcement on Friday and thanking those who pushed the price up

Be interesting to see how Glassons are going - hope that some haven't put too much faith in Di, might be disappointed

All roads lead to Munich...

S&P 500 down 0.50% so far, FTSE100 down 0.75%, S&PNZX50 down 0.68%.....

:)

[huxley]

"S&P 500 down 0.50% ..."

Whoa, sorry. Was looking at FTSE250...

[BlackPeter]

I just scored 7000 for 3.25, should help things along a bit:). Don't forget big announcement on Friday, every man and his dog/pussy will want a bit of the action:t_up:.

Just keep the virtue of diversification in mind. While this thread is quite enthusiastic about HLG, it still might be a possibility that the people selling now are the more clever ones (time will tell).

What we know so far is that retail in general had this season a quite good turnover (judging from EFTPOS data). What we know as well is that some retailers had significant difficulties to maintain viable margins (WHS springing to mind). We don't know yet, whether HLG managed to keep their margins up.

I wish holders all the best - and hey, you all might get lucky, but overall am I not sure whether retail is at current the best investment space to be.

[couta1]

Just keep the virtue of diversification in mind. While this thread is quite enthusiastic about HLG, it still might be a possibility that the people selling now are the more clever ones (time will tell).

What we know so far is that retail in general had this season a quite good turnover (judging from EFTPOS data). What we know as well is that some retailers had significant difficulties to maintain viable margins (WHS springing to mind). We don't know yet, whether HLG managed to keep their margins up.

I wish holders all the best - and hey, you all might get lucky, but overall am I not sure whether retail is at current the best investment space to be. Not into over diversification, but I share your sentiments on retail having sold both my WHS and KMD holdings for a reasonable sized loss last week (Around 13k)

[see weed]

Just keep the virtue of diversification in mind. While this thread is quite enthusiastic about HLG, it still might be a possibility that the people selling now are the more clever ones (time will tell).

What we know so far is that retail in general had this season a quite good turnover (judging from EFTPOS data). What we know as well is that some retailers had significant difficulties to maintain viable margins (WHS springing to mind). We don't know yet, whether HLG managed to keep their margins up.

I wish holders all the best - and hey, you all might get lucky, but overall am I not sure whether retail is at current the best investment space to be.
Good point... Just sold 25% of my holding @ $4,200 profit:).

[huxley]

"...I wish holders all the best - and hey, you all might get lucky, but overall am I not sure whether retail is at current the best investment space to be.[/QUOTE]"

Fair point, I'd be keen to hear where you see value at the moment?

(Just interested based on your bearish sentiments posted on a range of threads lately - not looking for tips lol)

[Raz]

Good point... Just sold 25% of my holding @ $4,200 profit:).

Been selling on the drip from the day they went 3.20..that is my kind act for the day:-)

[Beagle]

Been selling on the drip from the day they went 3.20..that is my kind act for the day:-)

Come on mate fess up and be honest and add to that statement...and ready to buy on the drip at ~ $3.10 :p

[Beagle]

Good point... Just sold 25% of my holding @ $4,200 profit:).

Nice...shame about the small loss you took on the ones you bought this morning for $3.25 but losing small battles is okay as long as you win the war eh mate :) Don't let some posters negativity get you down. Retailers differ markedly in their ability to turn a buck... or twenty million bucks :)

[BlackPeter]

"...I wish holders all the best - and hey, you all might get lucky, but overall am I not sure whether retail is at current the best investment space to be."

Fair point, I'd be keen to hear where you see value at the moment?

(Just interested based on your bearish sentiments posted on a range of threads lately - not looking for tips lol)

Not hard to find value:
Resources are still in a clear uptrend - though most resource stocks are admittedly on the ASX (e.g. the biggies BHP, RIO, but there are hundreds of uptrending specialist stocks - e.g. ATC).
There are a number of smaller and less liquid NZ property stocks doing just amazing - e.g. CDI, MCK (mix of property and tourism);
There are obvious stars like THL (tourism) and TNR (car sales / finance / insurance);
Ah yes - and don't forget agriculture (e.g. NZK - and potentially as well SML);

Just from memory - and I could go on for some time, but as a general rule - you find better value in the stocks less people talk about - have a look at the quieter threads around this forum and do some research into these stocks. The threads with lots of up rampers might produce short - or midterm nice spikes (great for traders), but as soon as everybody starts to praise a particular stock, than even good stocks quickly turn too dear.

If you just frequent the upramper threads, than yes, you will see me more often bearish (and rarely without a good reason).

Obviously - just some examples and no recommendation. DYOR;

Discl: Hold most of above (actually - all but RIO);

Happy research & investing;

[percy]

The reasons I brought HLG remain the same.
Therefore no reason to sell on no news.
From the agm we know they are trading well.Clothing retail sales have been strong over the Christmas period.
I look forward to Friday's update with confidence.

[Joshuatree]

Im hearing, generally that women are migrating to the online sales for Glassons well,whereas guys still tend to come in to shop ; but that location in the newer malls ; shopping centres ,where the greater foot traffic is ;is performing way higher than the older downtown area shops ;has been good business wise. But couldn't get an idea re comparing with last year from my source. How many downtown locations that will move i don't know either but that will provide some upside down the track..

[JeremyALD]

Experiment finished. Last trade was 3.30.

What exactly was the point of the experiment? Lol

[see weed]

What exactly was the point of the experiment? Lol
The liquidity appears to be very little. Just trying to make it more liquid, and having a bit of fun at the same time. Final average price was $3.2606c.

[see weed]

Enough of the experiments, prediction for tomorrow... Good results...13c div...2c special div. payed on second week of April ;).

[Beagle]

The liquidity appears to be very little. Just trying to make it more liquid, and having a bit of fun at the same time. Final average price was $3.2606c.

I could have saved you the brokerage and told you that for free mate :p


Enough of the experiments, prediction for tomorrow... Good results...13c div...2c special div. payed on second week of April ;).

They did well to pay a 16.5 cent final in December considering the modest result last year so the coffers won't stand up to a special. 13.5 cent divvy as per last year but that won't be declared tomorrow, have to wait for the actual half year result to be declared in late March for that. My prediction for the first half forecast update due tomorrow, sales up an average of 8% across the board, profit guidance for the first half of $9-$10m up from $6.82m in IH FY16. No profit guidance for the full year.

[stoploss]

Still a difficult sector for some out there ........

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11793144

[JeremyALD]

I could have saved you the brokerage and told you that for free mate :p



They did well to pay a 16.5 cent final in December considering the modest result last year so the coffers won't stand up to a special. 13.5 cent divvy as per last year but that won't be declared tomorrow, have to wait for the actual half year result to be declared in late March for that. My prediction for the first half forecast update due tomorrow, sales up an average of 8% across the board, profit guidance for the first half of $9-$10m up from $6.82m in IH FY16. No profit guidance for the full year.

I'm with you on this one Roger, I'm predicting guidance of at least 8.5 million for the first half (especially considering this includes Xmas sales)

Most interesting for me will be the performance of Glasson's Australia. This has the biggest opportunity for future growth in my view.

[Beagle]

Still a difficult sector for some out there ........

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11793144

On the other hand good retailers are doing very well http://www.msn.com/en-nz/money/business/briscoes-profit-up-25-per-cent/ar-AAmvQvV?li=AA4Zjm&ocid=spartandhp

[percy]

On the other hand good retailers are doing very well http://www.msn.com/en-nz/money/business/briscoes-profit-up-25-per-cent/ar-AAmvQvV?li=AA4Zjm&ocid=spartandhp

What that article did not point out was BGR's online sales were up a massive 40% for the year ended 31/1/2017.As Estar do BGR's web site, I expect they are doing well too.

[see weed]

Still a difficult sector for some out there ........

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11793144
I suppose they will have to shop at HLG in the future:t_up:.

[huxley]

So.. what are we thinking.. announcement at 4:58?
;)

[winner69]

So.. what are we thinking.. announcement at 4:58?
;)

If the Board meeting was yesterday announcement this morning

If Board meeting today after 3 I reckon

No the after close on Friday before long weekend and hope no one will notice trick for HLG - heck its going to be STUNNING NEWS

[JeremyALD]

If the Board meeting was yesterday announcement this morning

If Board meeting today after 3 I reckon

No the after close on Friday before long weekend and hope no one will notice trick for HLG - heck its going to be STUNNING NEWS

Usually they announce at 8.30am. That's soon hehe

[winner69]

Usually they announce at 8.30am. That's soon hehe

But often a bit slack ......like the ASM preso was a while after the meeting

[Arbroath]

Looks very good...sales up 11% over December and up 9.4% for the half. NPAT c. $9-9.2 and although no dividend guidance my guess is 15 cps based on previous years relative to profit.

Should see the buyers come out today...

[Beagle]

I could have saved you the brokerage and told you that for free mate :p



They did well to pay a 16.5 cent final in December considering the modest result last year so the coffers won't stand up to a special. 13.5 cent divvy as per last year but that won't be declared tomorrow, have to wait for the actual half year result to be declared in late March for that. My prediction for the first half forecast update due tomorrow, sales up an average of 8% across the board, profit guidance for the first half of $9-$10m up from $6.82m in IH FY16. No profit guidance for the full year.

Posted yesterday. No need to polish up my steam powered abacus, seems to be working very well. Happy with the forecast and sales result.

[percy]

BINGO.!!
Full house!!
Sales up.!!
Margins up.
Nett profit up.
Can't ask for more.

[winner69]

Posted yesterday. No need to polish up my steam powered abacus, seems to be working very well. Happy with the forecast and sales result.

.....but you underestimated sales growth ha ha

I thought margins might be a bit higher though - i need to put new batteries in my Texas Calculator

[LAC]

All is looking good. Hope full year is just as good:)

[JeremyALD]

That's a fantastic annoucement. Clean clear and crisp.

Sales up over the Xmas period too. They've really turned it around this year. Well done all. A bit disappointed I sold some at 3.34!!! :)

[Beagle]

.....but you underestimated sales growth ha ha

I thought margins might be a bit higher though

Bean counters have been known to be a little conservative from time to time :p

Agree on margins, probably locked in forward cover mid 2016 at rates lower than what's prevailing now which augers very well for gross profit margin expansion in 2H FY17.

[winner69]

That's a fantastic annoucement. Clean clear and crisp.

Sales up over the Xmas period too. They've really turned it around this year. Well done all. A bit disappointed I sold some at 3.34!!! :)

You need to review/ update your forecasts eh jeremy

Previous outlook was rather pessimistic -

[Beagle]

Must say I am impressed with their accounting systems that they believe they can forecast profit that accurately so soon after the end of the first half. This is a company being run and managed extremely well in my opinion. Sector leading stock turn speaks for itself too.

[JeremyALD]

You need to review/ update your forecasts eh jeremy

Previous outlook was rather pessimistic -

Still my largest holding with THL Winner so I'm more than happy to be off with my forecast :D

I'm actually really impressed they've maintained their sales momentum over Christmas when it's so competitive.

[Arbroath]

Keep calm and carry on!

I'll be looking for H1 npat of at least $9m and a gross margin in the region of 58.5% and a sales uplift of 8-9%. The second half is even harder to guess at with weather factors etc but share price should see a move back above $3.50 if they can deliver c $9m for the first half. Another div in April prob 14 cents or so.

I'm happy to pat myself on the back with my forecast. Got NPAT pretty much bang on - was slightly optimistic on GM at 58.5% v 58.2% actual but sales at 9.4% slightly higher than my 8-9% forecast. Am pretty sure they'll pay 15cps dividend as npat is going to be 15.1-15.4cps and they pay out c. 100% historically...

[Raz]

I'm happy to pat myself on the back with my forecast. Got NPAT pretty much bang on - was slightly optimistic on GM at 58.5% v 58.2% actual but sales at 9.4% slightly higher than my 8-9% forecast. Am pretty sure they'll pay 15cps dividend as npat is going to be 15.1-15.4cps and they pay out c. 100% historically...

Decent result, only thing with this share is thin volumes makes it frustrating at times to play with:-)

[Beagle]

Decent result, only thing with this share is thin volumes makes it frustrating at times to play with:-)

lol...as see weed found out the other day. Not a concern for dividend hound investors :)

[Raz]

lol...as see weed found out the other day. Not a concern for dividend hound investors :)

haha I don't mind the dividend as well..I can't stop playing thou...:-)

[Beagle]

From post#918. Well this little newbie is doing very well:cool:. What do you think, there might be another wave of mum and dad buyers coming through next Tuesday, after reading in the weekend papers how well HLG are doing. They will be relaxing at the batch/crib reading buss. news thinking, I must get some of those for my portfolio next Tuesday:).

I'd expect they'll drift up to a fairer value of $3.50 - $3.70 over the next couple of months as we head toward the actual result in late March and next juicy dividend in April. The hound is quite content to sleep by his dividend food bowl till then :sleep:

[winner69]

Need to give my eps expectation of 35 cents and best case scenario of 40 cents a miss - thats just being outrageously optimistic

At best methinks F17 eps will be 30/31 cents

Better than last year and will preserve that 30 cent divie so not a disaster.

Don't think F18 will be much better either.

[percy]

Need to give my eps expectation of 35 cents and best case scenario of 40 cents a miss - thats just being outrageously optimistic

At best methinks F17 eps will be 30/31 cents

Better than last year and will preserve that 30 cent divie so not a disaster.

Don't think F18 will be much better either.

Yes the 35 cents eps is now looking too optimistic,and I think you are right with 30/31 cents.

[JeremyALD]

Need to give my eps expectation of 35 cents and best case scenario of 40 cents a miss - thats just being outrageously optimistic

At best methinks F17 eps will be 30/31 cents

Better than last year and will preserve that 30 cent divie so not a disaster.

Don't think F18 will be much better either.

It is looking like a similar year to FY15 so my predictions weren't far off ;)

[Beagle]

Likewise, can not keep my finger off the button, even though the volume is tight or light. Nothing like a good old play. Topped up with another 7000, just can't help my self, might have to go to gamblers anonymous. But the positive thing is am up 52k including next 15c div.:t_up:

LOL that's perhaps somewhat creative accounting counting dividends before they arrive :)

[winner69]

Hope my mate Jared is wrong when he says '"Stocks that stop going up on good news are a sell."

HLG share price better get a move along ...or else

[Beagle]

I think our friends have been playing with this share today.

[JeremyALD]

I thought Hallensteins had done a great job on the Sylvia Park refurb but I didn't know it was this pleasing for some :scared:

https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/new-zealand/2017/02/sylvia-park-hallensteins-sex-romp-ends-with-buckets-of-semen-in-change-room.html

[percy]

Most probably an All White, rather than an All Black.?

[JeremyALD]

Most probably an All White, rather than an All Black.?

I think so Percy!

Hallensteins is getting quite a lot of coverage from this lol. The newshub post had well over 1000 posts - they've now deleted the article and post!

Here's the stuff article for those that want a read


http://i.stuff.co.nz/auckland/89172024/man-alarmed-to-find-young-couple-having-sex-in-hallensteins-changing-room

[winner69]

I thought Hallensteins had done a great job on the Sylvia Park refurb but I didn't know it was this pleasing for some :scared:

https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/new-zealand/2017/02/sylvia-park-hallensteins-sex-romp-ends-with-buckets-of-semen-in-change-room.html

Probably staff playing around on a slack day

[winner69]

Good news and price stopped going up

Jared says 'Stocks that stop going up on good news are a sell.'

Maybe take the dividend now and see what happens when announced

[see weed]

Good news and price stopped going up

Jared says 'Stocks that stop going up on good news are a sell.'

Maybe take the dividend now and see what happens when announced
It's only a temporary stop. There are lots of other opportunities at end of Feb, and in March, then in about 4 weeks sp will start to rise again before div announcement. Correct me if I'm wrong.

[see weed]

I'd expect they'll drift up to a fairer value of $3.50 - $3.70 over the next couple of months as we head toward the actual result in late March and next juicy dividend in April. The hound is quite content to sleep by his dividend food bowl till then :sleep:
Likewise. Only about 8 weeks until next big feed.

[Beagle]

Likewise. Only about 8 weeks until next big feed.

This will help you keep your finger off the buy / sell button mate. No eating while we sleep our way through to the next big feed...looks silly doesn't it.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N26JH4xxkAs

[winner69]

Electronic card spend for January surprised on the upside sending bank commentators into raptures as to how strong is at the moment

But Apparel sector only up a miserable 1% over last year

Bubble deflating for HLG in NZ

Share price not pushing on after good news is it?

What did Jared say again

[JeremyALD]

Electronic card spend for January surprised on the upside sending bank commentators into raptures as to how strong is at the moment

But Apparel sector only up a miserable 1% over last year

Bubble deflating for HLG in NZ

Share price not pushing on after good news is it?

What did Jared say again

People are still cautious about what the future holds for Hallensteins so I don't think this will rocket ahead in the short term.

It's as steady as she goes at the moment and I'm sure this will be a round $3.50 closer to the dividend. I can't see this going much beyond that though this year. At the end of the day this is an excellent dividend stock that's had a very good run of late. Let's not get too greedy :)

[Beagle]

Plenty of people out spending on their cards in January. Colder weather equals more spending in the malls :)
http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/BU1702/S00367/nz-plastic-card-spending-jumps-in-january.htm?utm_source=ST&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=ShareTrader+AM+Update+for+Tuesday+14+ February+2017

[winner69]

Plenty of people out spending on their cards in January. Colder weather equals more spending in the malls :)
http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/BU1702/S00367/nz-plastic-card-spending-jumps-in-january.htm?utm_source=ST&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=ShareTrader+AM+Update+for+Tuesday+14+ February+2017

But apparel sector wasn't very strong

Only up 1.1% on Jan last year v total growth of 4.9% in core retail

Big winners were hospitality - good sign forVeritas and their Better Bars

[Beagle]

But apparel sector wasn't very strong

Only up 1.1% on Jan last year v total growth of 4.9% in core retail

Big winners were hospitality - good sign forVeritas and their Better Bars

Glad to see any increase with the summer we've been "enjoying" so far to be honest mate. Good for VIL, they need all the help they can get.

[winner69]

Glad I took Jared's advice

Already collected my dividend

[Beagle]

Happy to hold. Should provide consistent ~ 30 cps fully imputed dividends for many years to come just as it has over many years to date. (30 / 327) / 0.72 = 12.74% gross div yield.

[arc]

Does anyone know of particular reason(s) they dont have a DRP?

[arc]

Glad I took Jared's advice

Already collected my dividend


would depend on what level you bought in at
i think some here are around the $1 buy-in mark

must admit if it goes sub_$3 I would be very tempted to do a couta on it.

[winner69]

Does anyone know of particular reason(s) they dont have a DRP?

Never had much need for extra capital I suppose

[winner69]

would depend on what level you bought in at
i think some here are around the $1 buy-in mark

must admit if it goes sub_$3 I would be very tempted to do a couta on it.

Was it $1 once?

[Beagle]

Never had much need for extra capital I suppose

Yes even with fancy store refurbishments to latest European standards to meet new competition head on, annual capex has been less than annual depreciation.

[winner69]

Yes even with fancy store refurbishments to latest European standards to meet new competition head on, annual capex has been less than annual depreciation.

And what they don't need most goes back to shareholders

And hardly ever (maybe never) go cap in hand to the bank manager asking for more - prob don't even have a small overdraft

And world class stock management

[macduffy]

And what they don't need most goes back to shareholders

And hardly ever (maybe never) go cap in hand to the bank manager asking for more - prob don't even have a small overdraft

And world class stock management

Probably don't even have a bank account!

But seriously, it's one stock I wish I held - and don't. If they ever get down to that $1 !

;)

[Beagle]

https://www.nzx.com/companies/HLG/announcements/297214

Director buying 90,000 shares on market...good sign :)
Disc : Sleeping beside the dog food bowl.

[Beagle]

All the hot money must be gone, nobody has said anything for a while and I had to go back 4 pages on this site to mine this thread out.

Just the serious dividend hounds left who enjoy (30 / 331) / 0.72 (a well proven over many years) gross dividend yield of 12.6% with the next feed only just over a month away.
Disc: Still sleeping by the food bowl

[Leftfield]

Interesting to compare the performance of HLG SP with the NZX50.

8730

[winner69]

Interesting to compare the performance of HLG SP with the NZX50.

8730

The 6 month chart tells a different story

[huxley]

Does that chart include dividends? The NZX50 does I think..

[Beagle]

Does that chart include dividends? The NZX50 does I think..

No it doesn't include dividends for specific stocks so any comparison between a high yield stock and the NZX50 gross index which includes dividends can give quite a disingenuous view.

As Winner quite rightly suggests, over the last six months shareholders have enjoyed a great run from around $2.70 up to $3.30 plus a 16.5 cent fully imputed divvy in December and next month will enjoy another circa 14 cps fully imputed dividend. Meaty feeds by any hungry dog's yardstick :D

[winner69]

NZD:USD going sub 70 could be a worry for businesses like HLG later in year

[winner69]

.....but if karlos get's his way the numbers out of Australia will look better

[Beagle]

NZD:USD going sub 70 could be a worry for businesses like HLG later in year

All good back over 70 cents now by a HUGE margin :)

[winner69]

All good back over 70 cents now by a HUGE margin :)

NZD seems to have turned turtle again ......

[winner69]

Electronic Card Spend stats for Feb month showed apparel DOWN 3.3% on feb last year ......

........and NZD now US 68 cents something.


Was Jared has a point when when stocks stop going up on good news (the last announcement) its time to sell

Maybe the golden weather (stock wise) has come to an end and its tougher times ahead for HLG

[Beagle]

HLG has paid a fairly consistent and enviable annual total dividend of 30 cps over the last five years through a variety of exchange rates. One months retail stat's doesn't mean much in the longer term scheme of things especially when it was a very wet February. Gross dividend yield at $3.31 including imputation credits = 12.6% and there's a dividend of approx. 13.5 cents fully imputed due next month.

[BullishBear]

currently down to 500, down 12 cents, on a grand volume of 984 shares.
i see that there already buyers at 501 and 502, but the nearest seller is 512.
this stock is sufficiently bouncy to make a good trade stock, but am currently happy as a long-term holder also.
Hey Scamp where do you see this info,what tools are you using to access the live trade data please?

[Jantar]

Scamper posted that 10 years ago, not sure if he is still around.

The data is available on the ANZ securities web site in the depth data

[winner69]

HLG has paid a fairly consistent and enviable annual total dividend of 30 cps over the last five years through a variety of exchange rates. One months retail stat's doesn't mean much in the longer term scheme of things especially when it was a very wet February. Gross dividend yield at $3.31 including imputation credits = 12.6% and there's a dividend of approx. 13.5 cents fully imputed due next month.


Not just 1 month - trend series over the last few months has been weakening

My conclusion for what it's worth is that market environment isn't as robust as last year and we should expect to see (much) lower growth in H2 than H1 for HLG - even if Di is weaving her magic and doing wonders for Glassons.

Won't affect this years dividends but no way increased dives next year

[winner69]

Last announcement said group sales $122.9 million, an increase of 9.4% over the prior corresponding period and that Gross margin saw an increase of 1.4 percentage points above the same period last year and that Group profit after tax is projected to be in the range of $9.0 to $9.2 million

Filling in the gaps it appears as if expenses were up heaps as well - it's costing them a lot to achieve that growth. My earlier forecasts allowed for lower expenses, ie more efficiencies/ productivity (doing more with what you got)

Be interesting what comments they make when they come clean with the full numbers.

I reckon eps will be less than 30 cents a share his year

Jeez cricket boring and even the Auckland Cup races were called off. Many frustrated punters today

[Raz]

Not just 1 month - trend series over the last few months has been weakening

My conclusion for what it's worth is that market environment isn't as robust as last year and we should expect to see (much) lower growth in H2 than H1 for HLG - even if Di is weaving her magic and doing wonders for Glassons.

Won't affect this years dividends but no way increased dives next year

I agree..the trend is the key. If wet weather is a factor well what is happening currently will not help! I have been selling down gradually as this is a hard share to off load in a hurry :-)

[macduffy]

I've been looking hard at HLG - it's a stock I'd like to own but never have. My current "yes, but" is the divvy payout ratio - it appears that in the last two financial years HLG has paid more in dividends than it has earned in profits. It seems that they don't have a current need for additional capital but sooner or later either dividends will need to reduce or/and a capital raising will be required. Or am I missing something here?

[percy]

I've been looking hard at HLG - it's a stock I'd like to own but never have. My current "yes, but" is the divvy payout ratio - it appears that in the last two financial years HLG has paid more in dividends than it has earned in profits. It seems that they don't have a current need for additional capital but sooner or later either dividends will need to reduce or/and a capital raising will be required. Or am I missing something here?
I think investors have been asking this question for the past 4 or 5 years.
It appears they will be asking it for the foreseeable future.? lol.
ps I can't see Tim Glasson putting money in,or having his holding deluted.

[Beagle]

I've been looking hard at HLG - it's a stock I'd like to own but never have. My current "yes, but" is the divvy payout ratio - it appears that in the last two financial years HLG has paid more in dividends than it has earned in profits. It seems that they don't have a current need for additional capital but sooner or later either dividends will need to reduce or/and a capital raising will be required. Or am I missing something here?

Let me give you a clue. Have a look at the depreciation figure in the financial statements. Depreciation is a non cash item.
There is no need for further capital and the company appears well capable of continuing to pay 30 cps per annum in fully imputed dividends for the foreseeable future
Disc: Sleeping by the dividend food bowl.

[percy]

Let me give you a clue. Have a look at the depreciation figure in the financial statements. Depreciation is a non cash item.
There is no need for further capital and the company appears well capable of continuing to pay 30 cps per annum in fully imputed dividends for the foreseeable future
Disc: Sleeping by the dividend food bowl.
Exactly right.

[Snow Leopard]

I've been looking hard at HLG - it's a stock I'd like to own but never have. My current "yes, but" is the divvy payout ratio - it appears that in the last two financial years HLG has paid more in dividends than it has earned in profits. It seems that they don't have a current need for additional capital but sooner or later either dividends will need to reduce or/and a capital raising will be required. Or am I missing something here?

Their cash position has deteriorated to the tune of $3M5 a year average over the last 6 years and dividends paid have exceeded profit by $1M5 a year average in that same time-frame [and spending on PP&E has exceeded D&A].

At FY16 they had $14M in the bank and no borrowings.
They also had plenty of imputation credits.

So in theory they can carry on for a few years yet and then get an overdraft to carry on carrying on.

But long term the sustained lift in profits will cover the dividends :p.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[macduffy]

Thanks all, for the various replies.

Yes, I'm aware that depreciation is a non-cash expense but I'm more concerned that their cash earnings don't, or at least, haven't covered the divvys in recent times. It's to be hoped that this situation is eventually rectified, as Tiger confidently asserts!

;)

[Beagle]

One thing for sure is I see no chance of them increasing the dividend this year relative to last year. They did extremely well to maintain the 16.5 cent dividend in December 16 in my opinion.
Business conditions will need to have stayed robust in early 2017 for them to be maintaining last year's 13.5 cps interim dividend next month. I think they report their half yearly shortly so well know more pretty soon. P.S. on 30 March.

[JeremyALD]

I just made some online purchases with Hallensteins for the first time and I have to say it's a really good experience. Everything is easy and often on sale. I got sent a 40% off coupon and a reminder that it was expiring tonight. Made some inpulse purchases as a result. They're doing really well on that platform, I'm impressed.

[NZSilver]

Results tomorrow and a nice div likely. I'm expecting a good trading update with the wet summer we have had and director buying 90000 shares at $3.40

[brend]

What time? I didn't see any announcements on nzx

[winner69]

What time? I didn't see any announcements on nzx

From last update -


A full announcement with earnings statement including dividend declaration will be released to the market on 30 March 2017.


Knowing HLG it could be anytime

[Beagle]

https://www.nzx.com/companies/HLG/announcements/299042

Result at the top end of previous guidance $9.185m, previous guidance $9.0 - $9.2m
Fully imputed dividend of 14.5 cps, (I was only expecting 13.5 cps)
EPS exceeded dividend.
E Commerce growing strongly
Carefully measured expansion and refurbishment of stores in Australia
Good to see Glassons Australia back into profit - Lower current cross rate will help with conversion of future profits
Current winter trading 7 weeks, up 5% slightly slower sales growth than experienced in the first half.
Financials are easy to read and a pleasure to read because its such a simple well run business
Very happy to hold as an excellent dividend yield stock. (31 / 338) / 0.72 Gross dividend yield = 12.74%.
Company has a very long and highly credible history of being a very high dividend payer.
I will definitely be including this company in my Mum's investment portfolio.

[thestg]

Results out. Looks good. Div 14.5cps full imps. XD 6 April, Payment 13 April

[winner69]

Isn't this a bit of a worry - While Glassons saw strong sales growth in both countries,Hallenstein Brothers and Storm saw a small decline in sales on the prior corresponding period.

What happens to Group sales when Di's honeymoon is over and her enthusiasm wanes

[Beagle]

Isn't this a bit of a worry - While Glassons saw strong sales growth in both countries,Hallenstein Brothers and Storm saw a small decline in sales on the prior corresponding period.

What happens to Group sales when Di's honeymoon is over and her enthusiasm wanes

Nothing new there mate, was previously mentioned in earlier releases. They're working on it. Overall results speak for themselves and are very satisfactory in my opinion.

[percy]

An excellent result.
I am very impressed by the 35% increase in ecommerce sales.
The increased divie is the icing on the cake.

[NZSilver]

nicccccccccccceeeeeeeeee

[winner69]

Their cash position has deteriorated to the tune of $3M5 a year average over the last 6 years and dividends paid have exceeded profit by $1M5 a year average in that same time-frame [and spending on PP&E has exceeded D&A].

At FY16 they had $14M in the bank and no borrowings.
They also had plenty of imputation credits.

So in theory they can carry on for a few years yet and then get an overdraft to carry on carrying on.

But long term the sustained lift in profits will cover the dividends :p.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

I'll leave it up to PT to add another chapter to this story

[winner69]

Inventory levels down - best in class (world) stock management HLG have. Most retailers would love to be even half as good.

[h2so4]

No non current lia ...lia...debts.
I'm sure they had some last year.

[NZSilver]

$3.50 open up 4% + nice 14.5 cps div. Nice one!

[Raz]

I'll take that:-)

[winner69]

No non current lia ...lia...debts.
I'm sure they had some last year.

Yes, no non-current stuff - this year or last year

HLG have no need for things like debt

[NZSilver]

This should bring price between $3.65-3.75 according to my conservative valuation based on retail stock. I really like their growth in ecommerce sales.

[h2so4]

This should bring price between $3.65-3.75 according to my conservative valuation based on retail stock. I really like their growth in ecommerce sales.

I really like your conser....conser....safe valuation.

[NZSilver]

With growth in sales we should see fy div increased slightly.

[winner69]

Jeremy - you said - Performance should be fairly in line with the Groups performance in 2013 and 2015 and I would think all going well should support a SP above $3.50.


Over $5 surely

That's what i'm looking forward to


We'll get that $5 one day ....sooner than later

HLG the Star of the NZX in 2017 - miracles do happen eh

[RupertBear]

Quite keen to own some of these shares but have clearly been a bit late jumping on board. :( Would I be right in thinking it would be a silly time to jump in now? Maybe better to wait for a dip when it goes Ex Div? :confused:

[RupertBear]

Hmm I see Craigs rate them as a sell! :mellow:

[Beagle]

Inventory levels down - best in class (world) stock management HLG have. Most retailers would love to be even half as good.

That's it in a nutshell. A sound gross profit margin and superb stock turn. A very well refined and well proven business model.

[percy]

Hmm I see Craigs rate them as a sell! :mellow:

Only sell when they change their recommendation to buy.
It really works.!..lol.

[winner69]

That's it in a nutshell. A sound gross profit margin and superb stock turn. A very well refined and well proven business model.

HLG make $7 odd Gross Margin for every $ invested in stock - great return on investment eh

And they turn that stock over 5 times a year

Even Rod would love to do those sort of numbers ......and they really shame Kathmandu

[percy]

HLG make $7 odd Gross Margin for every $ invested in stock - great return on investment eh

And they turn that stock over 5 times a year

Even Rod would love to do those sort of numbers ......and they really shame Kathmandu

Only retailer I know that turns its stock over more times, and has better margins is LOV, on the ASX>

[winner69]

Only retailer I know that turns its stock over more times, and has better margins is LOV, on the ASX>

They certainly going places that LOV eh - although not really your scene have you been in the Lovisa shop in Riccarton to see what the action is light

Yes high margins (being vertically integrated expect ths?) and hgher than HLG but stock turns are just over 3 (HLG just over 5)

On a turn/earn ratio HLG do better at 3.2 which is superior to Lovisa at 2.4

HLG stock management wise really is world class - best of breed maybe

Might study that LOV a bit more - take it you got in on the IPO percy

[JeremyALD]

Quite keen to own some of these shares but have clearly been a bit late jumping on board. :( Would I be right in thinking it would be a silly time to jump in now? Maybe better to wait for a dip when it goes Ex Div? :confused:

Because of the low liquidity you should be able to pick up some ex dividend around $3.30 if you're lucky

[percy]

In reply to W69's post.
No1 daughter works at Riccarton Mall,so I walk past Lovisa store often, to keep an eye on it.It is one door away from Kmart.A very small store in a very good location.The store is always busy.
I put the Trust I help out with into them.Hobson Wealth provided good research.The other trustee is in her early 70s.Said she always made a bee line for their store.My daughter spoke well of them too,but the real "seal of approval" came from my granddaughter and her best friend.
I like the fact they sell small items that can be airfreighted around the world very quickly and cheaply.Compare this with HLG where clothing takes up space and the likes of Smiths City moving lounge suites from China.High costs and takes time.
So smallish stores in high foot traffic locations.Fast moving high margin stock,not requiring expensive staff.The fitout of the stores is not expensive.The target market appears to be a lot bigger than I expected.
No I did not buy at the IPO,and at this stage only have a modest holding.

[percy]

For W69 eyes only.
Game on.The builders are in our Riccarton Lovisa store.
Looking forward to "The New Look Store."
Exciting times.
Not a bad time to have the builders in, as retail is quiet at this time of year.

[h2so4]

For W69 eyes only.
Game on.The builders are in our Riccarton Lovisa store.
Looking forward to "The New Look Store."
Exciting times.
Not a bad time to have the builders in, as retail is quiet at this time of year.

Louisa founder Brett Blundy does or did have a nice boat.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=f6CZFjEOkI8

[NZSilver]

Where is this going to sit x div?

[percy]

The chart looks very positive.
The $3.40 resistance level now looks as though it will become the suport level.
The share price is in a very strong uptrend,so we remain "well positioned".

[winner69]

Where is this going to sit x div?

More than $3.50 I reckon

[NZSilver]

Seems demand increasing before it goes ex div on the 7th

[Snow Leopard]

Seems demand increasing before it goes ex div on the 7th

6th

BW
PT

....

[NZSilver]

Hi PT, thanks for that!

[huxley]

Looks good today! $3.65

[NZSilver]

Big dip today down to 3.45 (20c when div was 14.5c), looks like a few people wanted div but not to hold before next results... some concern? Could be back down to pre results announcement price at this rate - $3.36... Will keep watching for lower entry after I made a rash decision and sold half my holding yesterday to lock some profits in.

[couta1]

Big dip today down to 3.45 (20c when div was 14.5c), looks like a few people wanted div but not to hold before next results... some concern? Could be back down to pre results announcement price at this rate - $3.36... Will keep watching for lower entry after I made a rash decision and sold half my holding yesterday to lock some profits in. A good rash decision by the looks, most stocks drop by more than the divvy amount for a period of time, in general. That $3.65 yesterday looked a bit exuberant to me.

[arc]

I tend to agree with your assessment Couta. The historic graphs display 330 to 340 as the sideways momentum range over the last few months, 360 was just a low volume blip, looks to me like pre-div "selling" commenced when it hit 350. Will be interesting to see where it goes in the next month.

[Joshuatree]

Great service from HLG. Bought 6 t/shirts for $60 online; free delivery; was advised the order had been packed and awaiting courier. Package arrived promptly and when i ripped it open a mini whittakers peanut slab fell out with sales doc. Cool.

[see weed]

https://www.nzx.com/companies/HLG/announcements/299042

Result at the top end of previous guidance $9.185m, previous guidance $9.0 - $9.2m
Fully imputed dividend of 14.5 cps, (I was only expecting 13.5 cps)
EPS exceeded dividend.
E Commerce growing strongly
Carefully measured expansion and refurbishment of stores in Australia
Good to see Glassons Australia back into profit - Lower current cross rate will help with conversion of future profits
Current winter trading 7 weeks, up 5% slightly slower sales growth than experienced in the first half.
Financials are easy to read and a pleasure to read because its such a simple well run business
Very happy to hold as an excellent dividend yield stock. (31 / 338) / 0.72 Gross dividend yield = 12.74%.
Company has a very long and highly credible history of being a very high dividend payer.
I will definitely be including this company in my Mum's investment portfolio.
Will be collecting about 30k worth of divs. this week from about 5 companies. Half of that is from HLG, so am also pleased with my holding. But sadly can't pass any onto my mum. She passed on two weeks ago. 70 years married. But all is good and things are getting better by the day. Always visit your mum and dad. One day they will not be there.

[Beagle]

Will be collecting about 30k worth of divs. this week from about 5 companies. Half of that is from HLG, so am also pleased with my holding. But sadly can't pass any onto my mum. She passed on two weeks ago. 70 years married. But all is good and things are getting better by the day. Always visit your mum and dad. One day they will not be there.

I am sorry for your loss mate and appreciate the advice. I lost my Dad a few years ago after a long bout of dementia and multiple strokes. Tough gig to lose one of your parents that way but my Mum is in pretty good nick for going on 88 soon. HLG has a very long record of paying very high dividends.

[winner69]

Electronic Card Spend March. Apparel up a miserable 0.8% (sa) and didn't recover the 3.4% drop in Feb. Trend series flat, if not slightly negative.

I reckon market conditions getting tougher for likes of HLG shops and H2 might be a bit of a disappointment

But you have the saviour in Di - the miracle lady might pull the company through

[percy]

Winter clothing sales/margins should be better than Summer.
HLG enjoyed a very strong first half,and I would expect the momemtum to continue,although retail is patchy at present.

W69 Our Westfield Riccarton LOV shop was only shut for a few days for remodelling.
Busy as,in fact they are so busy I can't get in the store to check it out.Now that's busy.!

[BlackPeter]

Electronic Card Spend March. Apparel up a miserable 0.8% (sa) and didn't recover the 3.4% drop in Feb. Trend series flat, if not slightly negative.

I reckon market conditions getting tougher for likes of HLG shops and H2 might be a bit of a disappointment

But you have the saviour in Di - the miracle lady might pull the company through

You mean similar to the way she pulled Pumpkin Patch through :scared:?

[winner69]

You mean similar to the way she pulled Pumpkin Patch through :scared:?

Punters have a lot of faith in our Di to fix up Glassons and make huge profits seeing Hallensteins a bit sluggish at.the moment

[percy]

You mean similar to the way she pulled Pumpkin Patch through :scared:?

Really.!!!
You can do better than that.

[Beagle]

Sales for the first seven weeks of the new season were up 5%....at a time when I struggle to recall more unusually wet conditions across much of N.Z.
Doesn't seem too bad to me. Good dividend hounds stock.

[BlackPeter]

Really.!!!
You can do better than that.

Hi percy,

didn't intend to stand on anyone's toes ... and have no heartblood in this issue ... I lost only a very minor amount in PPL and don't hold HGL.

However - I must admit that I was close to buying into HGL ... but the fact that Di returned to HGL stopped me. May have been a mistake, but still not sure why people expect miracles from her after the disaster in PPL?

Sure - PPL was probably already a basket case when she started, but then, why did she bite? It is hard for a senior executive to get out of these situations smelling like roses, and so far I am not sure whether Di is different.

Are you?

[Biscuit]

Hi percy,

didn't intend to stand on anyone's toes ... and have no heartblood in this issue ... I lost only a very minor amount in PPL and don't hold HGL.

However - I must admit that I was close to buying into HGL ... but the fact that Di returned to HGL stopped me. May have been a mistake, but still not sure why people expect miracles from her after the disaster in PPL?

Sure - PPL was probably already a basket case when she started, but then, why did she bite? It is hard for a senior executive to get out of these situations smelling like roses, and so far I am not sure whether Di is different.

Are you?

Talented people learn from their experiences, and failures make them better.

[percy]

There is a Buffett saying that goes something like this;
When people with a good reputation join a business with a poor reputation,it is the business that retains its reputation.
HLG were very pleased to have her back.The results she has achieved, prove HLG were right.

[Beagle]

There is a Buffett saying that goes something like this;
When people with a good reputation join a business with a poor reputation,it is the business that retains its reputation.
HLG were very pleased to have her back.The results she has achieved, prove HLG were right.

Agree 100%. PPL were a basket case many years in the making. Results achieved by Di with Glassons speak for themselves.

[JeremyALD]

SP has come back down to earth a bit. I have to admit I'm a bit concerned about all their sales at the moment. In the last two weeks I've been sent two 45% off everything vouchers, alongside a string of other offers like three tees for $30. I bought brown shoes for $55 dollars with the discount. They surely can't be making much margin on that when I usually spend $150 on shoes.

[Leftfield]

SP has come back down to earth a bit. I have to admit I'm a bit concerned about all their sales at the moment. In the last two weeks I've been sent two 45% off everything vouchers, alongside a string of other offers like three tees for $30. I bought brown shoes for $55 dollars with the discount. They surely can't be making much margin on that when I usually spend $150 on shoes.

While I'm impressed by the strong following HLG has with ST advocates and appreciate HLG dividend yield is attractive for some, I personally don't invest unless I can see a trend of strong growth ahead for at least 5 yrs ( i.e. above average NZX top 50 growth.)

Articles like this (http://money.cnn.com/2017/04/22/news/credit-suisse-retail/index.html) which report on the closure of 15% of Macey's US stores and a Credit Suisse prediction that in 2017 there will be 8,600 store closures in the US versus 2,056 in 2016, make me think that retail in NZ will at some stage be caught by these US trends. Mr Market seems to be agreeing with this sentiment at the moment.

(Disc; not a HLG or WHS holder, nor likely to be anytime soon)

[couta1]

While I'm impressed by the strong following HLG has with ST advocates and appreciate HLG dividend yield is attractive for some, I personally don't invest unless unless I can see a trend of strong growth ahead for at least 5 yrs ( i.e. above average NZX top 50 growth.)

Articles like this (http://money.cnn.com/2017/04/22/news/credit-suisse-retail/index.html) which report on the closure of 15% of Macey's US stores and a Credit Suisse prediction that in 2017 there will be 8,600 store closures in the US versus 2,056 in 2016, make me think that retail in NZ will at some stage be caught by these US trends. Mr Market seems to be agreeing with this sentiment at the moment.

(Disc; not a HLG or WHS holder, nor likely to be anytime soon) Not into retail stocks, formally held WHS/KMD(Both sold for losses) and briefly BGR when it was $3 (It crept up to over $4 by stealth and would be the best and most stable retail stock on the NZX IMO) HLG would be the next best but with a lot more volatility. PS-This could be worth a punt if it gets close to or under $3 again.

[percy]

I sold the balance of our HLG holding on 26-4-2017,as I think retail is starting to really struggle again.
W69 our little gem LOV [asx] came out with a great profit upgrade today,so still the odd retailer doing well.It is the only retailer I hold and I only have a small holding.

[LAC]

LOV, I also bought a tiny holding after doing some research after you mentioned it. Contacted some friends in South Africa and they say Lovisa is seen as a premium store there with a cult following. Will hold until the demand stops I guess.
HLG I didnt buy even though the PE looked good because H&M and Zara seem to be some serious competition when walking through the stores in Sylvia Park. I think they will open a few more stores soon.

[Raz]

I sold the balance of our HLG holding on 26-4-2017,as I think retail is starting to really struggle again.
W69 our little gem LOV [asx] came out with a great profit upgrade today,so still the odd retailer doing well.It is the only retailer I hold and I only have a small holding.

Agree retail is turning and some real economic issue building up in NZ in this sector. Been selling gradually as when you have a very larger parcel you have to be patient...

[Beagle]

I got to thinking today its a long time between drinks for the next dividend in December...lot of water to flow under the bridge between now and then. Sold a few more myself.

[winner69]

I got to thinking today its a long time between drinks for the next dividend in December...lot of water to flow under the bridge between now and then. Sold a few more myself.

Remember mate I told you a couple months ago that this retail sector was starting to struggle and HLG's H2 probably wouldn't be too flash ......but you hung in there eh

Disappointed that your faith in Di the miracle maker is waning. Bit sad

I reckon good buying around 280 (again) in a month or so ......but I won't be buying your cast offs at current prices.

[percy]

LOV, I also bought a tiny holding after doing some research after you mentioned it. Contacted some friends in South Africa and they say Lovisa is seen as a premium store there with a cult following. Will hold until the demand stops I guess.
HLG I didnt buy even though the PE looked good because H&M and Zara seem to be some serious competition when walking through the stores in Sylvia Park. I think they will open a few more stores soon.
I have started a new thread for LOV on the ASX.

[JeremyALD]

Roger, if your main reason for buying into Hallensteins is the dividend yield why would you sell given the short term fluctuations? The performance of Hallensteins has been strong this year and even a weaker second half still sees them in much better shape than 2016. Hallensteins has shown good performance in a competitive environment so I see no reason why the dividend story won't continue. In saying that I won't be looking to top up until it hits $3 or so

[Beagle]

Roger, if your main reason for buying into Hallensteins is the dividend yield why would you sell given the short term fluctuations? The performance of Hallensteins has been strong this year and even a weaker second half still sees them in much better shape than 2016. Hallensteins has shown good performance in a competitive environment so I see no reason why the dividend story won't continue. In saying that I won't be looking to top up until it hits $3 or so

Hi mate,

Clear break down through the 100 day MA at $3.20. I am becoming concerned that technically this looks set to go down under $3 again. Weaker currency won't be helping. Sales for first seven weeks of new season up 5%, prior to that they were up close to double digits. Lots of water to flow under the bridge between now and December. I still hold some and I'll be back for a bigger holding later :D