HLG - Hallenstein Glasson

[JeremyALD]

Hi mate,

Clear break down through the 100 day MA at $3.20. I am becoming concerned that technically this looks set to go down under $3 again. Weaker currency won't be helping. Sales for first seven weeks of new season up 5%, prior to that they were up close to double digits. Lots of water to flow under the bridge between now and December. I still hold some and I'll be back for a bigger holding later :D

Let me know when you decide to go back in :D

[see weed]

The chart looks very positive.
The $3.40 resistance level now looks as though it will become the suport level.
The share price is in a very strong uptrend,so we remain "well positioned".
Very good comment...2/4/17:).

[see weed]

Winter clothing sales/margins should be better than Summer.
HLG enjoyed a very strong first half,and I would expect the momemtum to continue,although retail is patchy at present.

W69 Our Westfield Riccarton LOV shop was only shut for a few days for remodelling.
Busy as,in fact they are so busy I can't get in the store to check it out.Now that's busy.!
Very good again..11/4/17

[see weed]

There is a Buffett saying that goes something like this;
When people with a good reputation join a business with a poor reputation,it is the business that retains its reputation.
HLG were very pleased to have her back.The results she has achieved, prove HLG were right.
Very good again:D....12/4/17

[see weed]

I sold the balance of our HLG holding on 26-4-2017,as I think retail is starting to really struggle again.
W69 our little gem LOV [asx] came out with a great profit upgrade today,so still the odd retailer doing well.It is the only retailer I hold and I only have a small holding.
Very very good...1/5/17:D.

[percy]

My many contacts in retail,wholesale, and company reps, keep me ahead of the field.!!
It is the way I keep myself "well positioned."
Patchy turned to big slow down.Will be a very long unprofitable winter for most retailers.
Margins will be given away for revenue.

[James108]

My many contacts in retail,wholesale, and company reps, keep me ahead of the field.!!
It is the way I keep myself "well positioned."
Patchy turned to big slow down.Will be a very long unprofitable winter for most retailers.
Margins will be given away for revenue.

The thing is, one bad season is worth what 5 to 10 cps in earnings? Doesn't really bother me unless it is indicative of a bigger problem.

[see weed]

My many contacts in retail,wholesale, and company reps, keep me ahead of the field.!!
It is the way I keep myself "well positioned."
Patchy turned to big slow down.Will be a very long unprofitable winter for most retailers.
Margins will be given away for revenue.
Thank you for sharing your info with us. Have sold a few myself in last couple of weeks, but am ready to buy back in, if over sold. I have an order in at 2.95, but will see how it goes.

[percy]

Thank you for sharing your info with us. Have sold a few myself in last couple of weeks, but am ready to buy back in, if over sold. I have an order in at 2.95, but will see how it goes.

Retail can be fickle.For the past 6 years or more I have been very negative on all retail stocks,and for years warned of the Postie Plus disaster.
HLG is very well managed,but when NZ $ goes lower, margins are affected.When retail slows down retailers have to discount to stay in business.And that staying in business for most retailers is a very real struggle. So HLG will need to react to other retailers discounting,or go backwards.
More general I notice the lowering of standards in Malls.More and more $2 type shops,sounds big warning bells to me.
HLG have openned a new flag ship store in central ChCh.With road works and road closures, I have not been bothered to go and look at it.Big lack of parking and parking buildings add to the challenges .From what I read and hear, a lot of ChCh central retailers are going broke very quickly.

[JeremyALD]

Retail can be fickle.For the past 6 years or more I have been very negative on all retail stocks,and for years warned of the Postie Plus disaster.
HLG is very well managed,but when NZ $ goes lower, margins are affected.When retail slows down retailers have to discount to stay in business.And that staying in business for most retailers is a very real struggle. So HLG will need to react to other retailers discounting,or go backwards.
More general I notice the lowering of standards in Malls.More and more $2 type shops,sounds big warning bells to me.
HLG have openned a new flag ship store in central ChCh.With road works and road closures, I have not been bothered to go and look at it.Big lack of parking and parking buildings add to the challenges .From what I read and hear, a lot of ChCh central retailers are going broke very quickly.

Hmmm and the discounting is big. As I said Hallensteins has sent me numerous offers in the last two month including two 45% off everything vouchers. I use those vouchers to buy things with lower margin like shoes. That's some big discounting where they can't be making much.

[percy]

Hmmm and the discounting is big. As I said Hallensteins has sent me numerous offers in the last two month including two 45% off everything vouchers. I use those vouchers to buy things with lower margin like shoes. That's some big discounting where they can't be making much.

And all the time the overheads keep increasing; staff ,rents,power,phone,It,etc.
And increasing competition .

[Beagle]

Retail can be fickle.For the past 6 years or more I have been very negative on all retail stocks,and for years warned of the Postie Plus disaster.
HLG is very well managed,but when NZ $ goes lower, margins are affected.When retail slows down retailers have to discount to stay in business.And that staying in business for most retailers is a very real struggle. So HLG will need to react to other retailers discounting,or go backwards.
More general I notice the lowering of standards in Malls.More and more $2 type shops,sounds big warning bells to me.
HLG have openned a new flag ship store in central ChCh.With road works and road closures, I have not been bothered to go and look at it.Big lack of parking and parking buildings add to the challenges .From what I read and hear, a lot of ChCh central retailers are going broke very quickly.

Had to go to Henderson mall at lunchtime today. Haven't been there for at least a year and I was quite surprised at the lowering of standards.
That said Glassons and Haldenstein's were both doing steady trade now the weather has turned sharply colder I expect people will be out buying their winter wardrobe.
HLG been in business a very long time. I was wondering as I walked along, (dreaming of future trends as one sometimes does) if at some stage in the future with the ever growing internet sales methodology whether there aren't significant savings in having a combined Glassons / Hallensteins stores, huge potential savings in both rent and staff ! (with a slimmed down range of both).
What does the collective wisdom of our forum members think ?

[couta1]

Bought some of these pups at $3.20 the other week thinking they were reasonable value, looks otherwise, still won't sell for a loss as I don't sell high divvy paying stocks unless it becomes clear the stock is knackered. Might do a couta down at some stage.

[sb9]

Looking at recent trade pattern might see sub $3 very soon...

[percy]

Bought some of these pups at $3.20 the other week thinking they were reasonable value, looks otherwise, still won't sell for a loss as I don't sell high divvy paying stocks unless it becomes clear the stock is knackered. Might do a couta down at some stage.

Oh No.!!!!
Couta1 you have done it again..
Brought the shares I sold.!!!!............lol.
This time I hope I was wrong.!

[couta1]

Oh No.!!!!
Couta1 you have done it again..
Brought the shares I sold.!!!!............lol.
This time I hope I was wrong.! Happy to help out Percy.:)

[Elles]

Thank you for sharing your info with us. Have sold a few myself in last couple of weeks, but am ready to buy back in, if over sold. I have an order in at 2.95, but will see how it goes.

What happened to your order see weed? Looks like there's a few more buyers so that's encouraging to me as a holder. Might buy a few more to average my losses...

[see weed]

What happened to your order see weed? Looks like there's a few more buyers so that's encouraging to me as a holder. Might buy a few more to average my losses...
Dropped it to 2.90. Six months is a long time before next div., but expect price will start to rise again within the next 4 to 5 months. ps I have a spare 10,000 you can have for 3.18 ono;).

[Beagle]

7 months till the next dividend mate. Long time between drinks.

[winner69]

Electronic Card Spend for April shows Apparel sales down about 4% in April v last year.

Market conditions not so good in NZ for HLG brands?

I'd suggest lower than expected H2 sales - unless Di is still performing miracles.

[winner69]

HLG share price heading back to sub $3 by looks of it

[Beagle]

Raz looks like he's been cleaning out the last of his holdings this morning.
Should be good buying again, just like last year around August-Sept at ~ $2.70. Stock owes me nothing, probably have another dabble at around that level again in due course, Nil held at this point.

[winner69]

Raz looks like he's been cleaning out the last of his holdings this morning.
Should be good buying again, just like last year around August-Sept at ~ $2.70. Stock owes me nothing, probably have another dabble at around that level again in due course, Nil held at this point.

I still reckon H2 results won't be as good as some think

Long gone thoughts of an eps of 30 cents plus

Yep, $2.70 could be the mark again

[JBmurc]

I still reckon H2 results won't be as good as some think

Long gone thoughts of an eps of 30 cents plus

Yep, $2.70 could be the mark again

Then good chance the Divi will drop ?? what's there payout ratio like ....

[Jonboyz]

Sold all of my HLG holdings soon after it went exdivi. HLG might be a good retail business but I think Amazon.com is going to tear down nz online businesses in the longeterm.

My wifes friends spend a lot of money on clothing from US stores that send here, once amazon comes one continent closer I bet they'll be buying from them.

[winner69]

Interesting

http://www.smh.com.au/business/retail/topshop-australia-goes-into-voluntary-administration-amid-mounting-debts-20170524-gwc4ab.html

Maybe Di weaving her magic made it too tough for them

[Beagle]

Going back a bit in this thread some on here thought Top Shop were going to slaughter HLG. HLG been around for a LONG LONG time and aren't going to roll over like an old Labrador and play dead anytime soon !

[winner69]

Going back a bit in this thread some on here thought Top Shop were going to slaughter HLG. HLG been around for a LONG LONG time and aren't going to roll over like an old Labrador and play dead anytime soon !

I note that Rod said Briscoes had been facing change and challenges for 100 plus years as well - and doing things to move forward

Almost a lest we forget eh

[mikeybycrikey]

Going back a bit in this thread some on here thought Top Shop were going to slaughter HLG. HLG been around for a LONG LONG time and aren't going to roll over like an old Labrador and play dead anytime soon !

Bookshops, CD shops and even video rental stores don't exist in the same way they did even 10 years ago.

Just because a store has been around for over a century doesn't mean that it will be around for a century more. These big global chains didn't become big global chains for nothing.

I'm still a believer in HLG but it certainly pays to be aware of what is going on. Retail globally is changing pretty quickly at the moment.

[percy]

Tough sector...................
Avoid...........................

disc.brought more LOV asx.??????...

[Jay]

Topshop in Australia in administration - http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11862949

[Beagle]

Bookshops, CD shops and even video rental stores don't exist in the same way they did even 10 years ago.

Just because a store has been around for over a century doesn't mean that it will be around for a century more. These big global chains didn't become big global chains for nothing.

I'm still a believer in HLG but it certainly pays to be aware of what is going on. Retail globally is changing pretty quickly at the moment.

Maybe I am old fashioned but I still believe that by and large people want to try clothes on for fit, feel, look and fabric before they buy them which gives a middle of the market operator like HLG with a widespread retail footprint across N.Z. and in Australia an enduring business model. Sure overseas chains might try and cherry pick the main centers but they're never going to go into provincial N.Z. like HLG do as there are so many other countries / cities to cherry pick. At the right price I am a buyer of HLG again, (presently don't hold any).

[percy]

Maybe I am old fashioned but I still believe that by and large people want to try clothes on for fit, feel, look and fabric before they buy them which gives a middle of the market operator like HLG with a widespread retail footprint across N.Z. and in Australia an enduring business model. Sure overseas chains might try and cherry pick the main centers but they're never going to go into provincial N.Z. like HLG do as there are so many other countries / cities to cherry pick. At the right price I am a buyer of HLG again, (presently don't hold any).
Us old fashioned people are not big clothes buyers.
The fastest growing part of HLG is their on line sales,which is growing 4 or 5 times faster than their bricks and mortsar stores.
Take care.

[t.rexjr]

Us old fashioned people are not big clothes buyers.
The fastest growing part of HLG is their on line sales,which is growing 4 or 5 times faster than their bricks and mortsar stores.
Take care.

It's my experience that online clothes buying mainly happens when its either cheap (vastly discounted) or not available locally. The issue is a lot money is wasted buying clothes that are not quite right. If they dont get returned they just become closet fillers. People eventually go off the idea and revert to buying off the rack at full price. Internet sales will no doubt grow but a good bricks and morter clothes store will allways be worth while...

[macduffy]

Maybe I am old fashioned but I still believe that by and large people want to try clothes on for fit, feel, look and fabric before they buy them which gives a middle of the market operator like HLG with a widespread retail footprint across N.Z. and in Australia an enduring business model. Sure overseas chains might try and cherry pick the main centers but they're never going to go into provincial N.Z. like HLG do as there are so many other countries / cities to cherry pick. At the right price I am a buyer of HLG again, (presently don't hold any).

I think it's a generational thing, Roger. I certainly need to try on clothes for my "changeable" size/shape but a certain 21 year old relative of mine buys a lot of his gear, including jeans and other casual pants, shirts, knitwear etc, on-line from various Chinese suppliers. Never seems to have any problems and although the quality, feel and fabric wouldn't always suit me the prices are very attractive. I doubt that HLG's strong presence in provincial NZ will provide a moat to that type of competition.

[percy]

It's my experience that online clothes buying mainly happens when its either cheap (vastly discounted) or not available locally. The issue is a lot money is wasted buying clothes that are not quite right. If they dont get returned they just become closet fillers. People eventually go off the idea and revert to buying off the rack at full price. Internet sales will no doubt grow but a good bricks and morter store will allways be worth while...

Not so.
Go to www.estaronline.com and read up about on line sales and note who their customers are.
Then read case histories.
Then google empty malls .

[Biscuit]

Not so.
Go to www.estaronline.com (http://www.estaronline.com) and read up about on line sales and note who their customers are.
Then read case histories.
Then google empty malls .

I think there is a difference between buying clothes online (something you are familiar with and know it is going to fit you, look good and feel good) and buying clothes online (something you know nothing about until it arrives on your doorstep). The latter is a fad that even young people will tire of

[t.rexjr]

I think there is a difference between buying clothes online (something you are familiar with and know it is going to fit you, look good and feel good) and buying clothes online (something you know nothing about until it arrives on your doorstep). The latter is a fad that even young people will tire of

Definite difference between clothes and other products. I'm a heavy online purchaser. Buying clothes online is now next to never. Burnt too many times. I'd rather pay full price for one good thing than half price for 2 bad things. It's the sentiment of many of my peers...

[percy]

Definite difference between clothes and other products. I'm a heavy online purchaser. Buying clothes online is now next to never. Burnt too many times. I'd rather pay full price for one good thing than half price for 2 bad things. It's the sentiment of many of my peers...

I am the same,yet the figures show on line clothing sales for the likes of David Jones,Country Road,Rodd & Gunn,Rebel Sports,Swanndri and HLG are increasing between 25% and 35% pa, while their bricks and mortar stores are doing well to be up over 3% to 5%.

[t.rexjr]

I am the same,yet the figures show on line clothing sales for the likes of David Jones,Country Road,Rodd & Gunn,Rebel Sports,Swanndri and HLG are increasing between 25% and 35% pa, while their bricks and mortar stores are doing well to be up over 3% to 5%.

The revenue figures would be more on point than the growth figures when assessing the future of a physical store. Online sales will indeed be where the growth is. That's far from an issue...
Perhaps in years to come the form of the physical store will need to change but I'll say it again, a good bricks and morter clothes store will always be worth while.

[Elles]

I am the same,yet the figures show on line clothing sales for the likes of David Jones,Country Road,Rodd & Gunn,Rebel Sports,Swanndri and HLG are increasing between 25% and 35% pa, while their bricks and mortar stores are doing well to be up over 3% to 5%.

With those brands once people have bought clothes in the shop and know the quality and what size they need to buy, the next time it's easy and low risk to buy online. Quite different from online-only buying.

[percy]

With those brands once people have bought clothes in the shop and know the quality and what size they need to buy, the next time it's easy and low risk to buy online. Quite different from online-only buying.

Exactly correct.

[janner]

With those brands once people have bought clothes in the shop and know the quality and what size they need to buy, the next time it's easy and low risk to buy online. Quite different from online-only buying.

No.. I have to disagree on this.. You are saying that all clothes tried on and fitting in store A can be relied upon to fit you if you go for the exact same size on line for all same purchases in future !!.. i.e. Shirts.. Neck .. Chest.. Arm length.. Waist.. Body Length.. !!!..

Maybe very possible in the not to distant future ( made to measure by robots ) .. Not yet though..

Although such a things have always been considered in the past....

Har Har. I like the cut of your jib lad !!..

[DarkHorse]

With those brands once people have bought clothes in the shop and know the quality and what size they need to buy, the next time it's easy and low risk to buy online. Quite different from online-only buying.

Very true. I buy Barkers shirts online - but only because I've already bought one in store of same make and fit (probably another colour). I wonder though how many clothing lines are global brands for which there is online only store competition - any thoughts?

[Elles]

Yes, if you try a shirt in the shop and buy another one online later from the same brand in the same size it should fit, they don't suddenly shorten the arms in the next batch. And if you've changed shape and it doesn't fit, you can exchange it... :t_up:
https://www.hallensteins.com/faqs/returns?c=Returns&i=14

[winner69]

Another retailer in the apparel amd footwear sector bites the dust. Been in business since 1938

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/93066813/hundreds-of-jobs-on-the-line-after-kiwi-footwear-empire-banks-group-placed-in-receivership

They were always good for a decent pair of shoes at sale time - got a lot of shpes from them over the years

[hardt]

That dividend yield is the sexiest thing I have ever seen... How long can this delectable payout be sustained?

[winner69]

That dividend yield is the sexiest thing I have ever seen... How long can this delectable payout be sustained?

For quite a few more years I reckon .....even though in 3 of the last 4 years the dividend has been higher than free cash flow

But F17 should put a bit of excessive cash back in the kitty to keep divies going ....the big shareholders want divies

[Beagle]

Currently (31 / 310) / 0.72 = 13.89% gross. Very tasty and they have a very good record of sustaining it. Of course there are many saying the end is nigh and of course they've been saying that for quite a while. DYOR but for my money all things being equal I'll be in like a hungry beagle again if they drop to ~ $2.70. I am patient though.. Next divvy is not till December so plenty of water to flow under the bridge between now and then. Disc: Current holding Nil.

[winner69]

There's an article in The Australian which starts off -

The collapse of fashion chain Topshop and stablemate Topman this week echoed like a cannon shot through the fragile $300 billion retail sector as another high-profile store failed under the weight of some of the worst trading conditions in decades.

The reality is the Australian consumer just isn’t spending right now.

I wonder how Glassons are going over the ditch - probably struggling a bit I reckon

I still expect a lower than expected H2 from HLG

[JeremyALD]

I guess Glassons AU had a shocker in 2016 so will still deliver improved results - but I agree with you all that's it better to wait and see. The first glimpse of bad news for Hallensteins or sign that international competition is taking their sales and this will drop. Sentiment can change beyond quickly in Retail, especially at the moment. You also have to ask how much growth potential for the brand after this year and I can't see an awful lot. The NZ business is starting to peak.

[percy]

Another retailer in the apparel amd footwear sector bites the dust. Been in business since 1938

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/93066813/hundreds-of-jobs-on-the-line-after-kiwi-footwear-empire-banks-group-placed-in-receivership

They were always good for a decent pair of shoes at sale time - got a lot of shpes from them over the years

I have always thought footwear is the hardest retail sector,so another footwear retailer going out of business is no surprise.I buy one pair of running type shoes a year.Last black shoes were brought about 6 years ago.
I am not sure whether The Farmers' and Smiths City' one day sales are to buy a month's credit or not.?
As I pointed out a few weeks ago the Malls are getting more and more second rate stores,and strip shopping centres' empty stores are on the increase.
Another long hard winter ahead.Same in Aussie too.
ps.Don't buy anything because it will be on special next week.!
Back to HLG.Have been wanting to check out their new ChCh store,but with continuing road works in the city, I avoid it.
From what I hear others are too.
Hard to sell anything when you don't have customers.!

[hardt]

Not saying HLG is not able to do well, but apparel is becoming increasingly prone to nasty surprises... consumers are far less loyal than people on here think.

Only retail holding I would be willing to hold long would be KMD... maybe MHJ.

[arc]

Currently (31 / 310) / 0.72 = 13.89% gross. Very tasty and they have a very good record of sustaining it. Of course there are many saying the end is nigh and of course they've been saying that for quite a while. DYOR but for my money all things being equal I'll be in like a hungry beagle again if they drop to ~ $2.70. I am patient though.. Next divvy is not till December so plenty of water to flow under the bridge between now and then. Disc: Current holding Nil.

Roger; From your latest series of comments its looking like you are not holding "anything" "anywhere"...?. Or are you just quietly building a stake in a select few??/

[Beagle]

Roger; From your latest series of comments its looking like you are not holding "anything" "anywhere"...?. Or are you just quietly building a stake in a select few??/

Not correct at all mate. PM me if you want more info on current holdings.

[arc]

Over the edge and heading down into the shark pool...
Will be interesting to see when bids start to come online.

[winner69]

Not a good sign ......might move stock but margins adversely impacted

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/93285211/dry-weather-brings-halfyearly-sales-forward-a-month

I still expect a 'disappointing' H2 for HLG

[Beagle]

Hallensteins doing two heavy duty fleece tops for $60. Good deal for winter...not so sure about whether their shares are a good deal at this price but at another 10% off...

[JeremyALD]

Not a good sign ......might move stock but margins adversely impacted

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/93285211/dry-weather-brings-halfyearly-sales-forward-a-month

I still expect a 'disappointing' H2 for HLG

They have been doing sales non stop for the last three months. I still get bombarded with emails from them; including FOUR over the weekend

[winner69]

They have been doing sales non stop for the last three months. I still get bombarded with emails from them; including FOUR over the weekend

I'd say that's part and parcel of planned day to day activity .....and 'budgeted' for

Having your winter sale a month early is not 'budgeted' per se - and has an adverse impact on expected margins

Expect a disappointing H2 result I reckon

[JeremyALD]

Probably but at $3 now that's starting to be factored in. It's dropped some 20% off recent highs

[winner69]

Probably but at $3 now that's starting to be factored in. It's dropped some 20% off recent highs

Be interesting if they reduce the dividend this year

[Beagle]

Probably but at $3 now that's starting to be factored in. It's dropped some 20% off recent highs

Agree to some extent and the currency is starting to be helpful but I still think its the 30% off sale on the shares you want to be chasing mate :)

[winner69]

Probably but at $3 now that's starting to be factored in. It's dropped some 20% off recent highs

What's factored in at $2.90?

Amazing dividend yield at $2.90 - well over 10%

What do they say about things being too good to be true?

[cyclist]

What's factored in at $2.90?

Amazing dividend yield at $2.90 - well over 10%

What do they say about things being too good to be true?

Like when IQE had a 70% dividend yield shown on the NZX site. Must be a no brainer!

(Not suggesting it is anywhere near that dire though. Might be tempted soon.)

[winner69]

Stats NZ Card Spend for May

Total sales (exc MV related) up 5% on May last year ......but apparel only up a miserable 1.6%

Westpac comment was that the overall momentum in spending is fading

Disappointing H2 coming up for HLG .....esp when you hear the stories coming out of Australia as well

[sideline]

Stats NZ Card Spend for May

Total sales (exc MV related) up 5% on May last year ......but apparel only up a miserable 1.7%

Westpac comment was that the overall momentum in spending is fading

Disappointing H2 coming up for HLG .....esp when you hear the stories coming out of Australia as well


Funny way to twist the news! I read that last month most retail sectors went down somewhat or were flat EXCEPT apparel, which was UP 0.9%!!
Are you having a personal interest in spinning this as a negative for HLG? news here (http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11874642)

[Jantar]

Stats NZ Card Spend for May

Total sales (exc MV related) up 5% on May last year ......but apparel only up a miserable 1.7%

Westpac comment was that the overall momentum in spending is fading

Disappointing H2 coming up for HLG .....esp when you hear the stories coming out of Australia as well


This is from the H1 report

"FUTURE OUTLOOK
Total Group sales for the first seven weeks of the 2017 winter season have been encouraging, increasing on last year by 5%. Gross margin continues to show a small improvement over last year. Growth in sales from ecommerce continues to out-perform bricks and mortar, with sales for the first seven weeks of the season up 36%. Each chain is in a strong position going into the key winter trading months."

Would need to be a terrible last few weeks to make that a disapointing H2.

[hey_homes]

My partner reckons Glassons has upped its game in recently. Sounds like they've improved the online side of the operation and have smartened up their inventory from what was apparently a low eb over the last year or so.

[winner69]

Funny way to twist the news! I read that last month most retail sectors went down somewhat or were flat EXCEPT apparel, which was UP 0.9%!!
Are you having a personal interest in spinning this as a negative for HLG? news here (http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11874642)

yes, up 0.9% from April on seasonally adjusted basis

I prefer actual numbers - comapred to prior corresponding period - up 1.6%
Data here http://www.stats.govt.nz/~/media/Statistics/Browse%20for%20stats/ElectronicCardTransactions/HOTPMay17/ect-201705-tables.xlsx

Maybe we should seasonally adjust HLG share price - that way its about 320 today (rough est)

No barrow to push - just saying how I see it at the moment

[winner69]

This is from the H1 report

"FUTURE OUTLOOK
Total Group sales for the first seven weeks of the 2017 winter season have been encouraging, increasing on last year by 5%. Gross margin continues to show a small improvement over last year. Growth in sales from ecommerce continues to out-perform bricks and mortar, with sales for the first seven weeks of the season up 36%. Each chain is in a strong position going into the key winter trading months."

Would need to be a terrible last few weeks to make that a disapointing H2.


But that 5% for the first 7 weeks of H2 is a lot less than the 9.4% increase in H1

Many were expecting H2 to be pretty good as well and maybe 5% isn't enough.

Retail sales data suggest softening market conditions in NZ - Australia doesn't seem to be on fire either.

Thus relative to many punters expectations I still contend that H2 will be disappointing.

I gather your view of disappointing is different to mine eh

(Note they mentioned 7 weeks - assume to near the end of March - wonder how April and May have gone and how June and July will go (thats 19 weeks we don't know about))

[winner69]

One thing going for HLG is that the nzd:usd is looking better for then it was a few months. Should help margins a bit - at least for the start of F18

[winner69]

One thing going for HLG is that the nzd:usd is looking better for then it was a few months. Should help margins a bit - at least for the start of F18

Looking even better

Another 16/17 cents divie in November

Time to position yourselves to maximise returns

Around $3 seems a great price - probably be heaps more come October

[h2so4]

Looking even better

Another 16/17 cents divie in November

Time to position yourselves to maximise returns

Around $3 seems a great price - probably be heaps more come October

Are there two W69's posting on here?

[Biscuit]

Are there two W69's posting on here?

Yeah, one of them makes the most brilliant posts, the other has no clue :)

[cyclist]

Yeah, one of them makes the most brilliant posts, the other has no clue :)

Or one of them has just bought. The other just sold. ;)

[winner69]

Looking even better

Another 16/17 cents divie in November

Time to position yourselves to maximise returns

Around $3 seems a great price - probably be heaps more come October

Potential yield reducing by the week - share price about 310 now

Good yield even at 330/340/350 but better at today's price - even allowing for the waiting time.

[JeremyALD]

I bought back into HLG today. The yield is good, the exchange rate is strong and given the solid interium report and cold weather I'm pretty sure there'll be another good dividend coming end of the year. Happy to buy up around $3. Good support coming in around this level.

[Beagle]

Inclined to agree, currency definitely helping. Chances of seeing $2.70 again anytime soon are looking slimmer and slimmer by the day...
Metservice telling us to brace for two coldest weeks of the year will also help...a really bitterly cold winter, that's something we haven't seen for a few years.

[percy]

Take care
According to www.4-traders.com HLG eps are expected to reduce approx 7% pa for the next two years.

[huxley]

H&M spreading its wings...

https://i.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/94485136/hm-is-coming-to-lower-hutt

[Beagle]

Potential yield reducing by the week - share price about 310 now

Good yield even at 330/340/350 but better at today's price - even allowing for the waiting time.


I bought back into HLG today. The yield is good, the exchange rate is strong and given the solid interium report and cold weather I'm pretty sure there'll be another good dividend coming end of the year. Happy to buy up around $3. Good support coming in around this level.


Inclined to agree, currency definitely helping. Chances of seeing $2.70 again anytime soon are looking slimmer and slimmer by the day...
Metservice telling us to brace for two coldest weeks of the year will also help...a really bitterly cold winter, that's something we haven't seen for a few years.

Actioned a modest buy today. School holidays and a bitterly cold southerly approaching should send people scurrying to their local mall for some retail therapy and essential winter clothing in time for inclusion in HLG's current year earnings. Currency is stable and providing a tailwind at this level. It was recently reported that despite Amazon having direct interests in two large apparel companies they only have 6% of the apparel market. I still believe despite many and numerous bearish comments that the internet will undermine the veracity of HLG's business model that the VAST majority of people prefer to try clothes on for themselves to make sure they like the style, fit and fabric before buying and I for one don't ever see that changing very much. Classic dividend hounds stock.

[winner69]

Stats NZ Electronic card Spend for June

Apparel industry sales DOWN 1.9% on June 17. Core retail (exc vehicle related and services) UP 5.0%

Seems apparel stores in NZ struggling a bit while other industries going well.

Last 4 months industry sales same as last year. That covers the months since HLG last update.

Just saying

[Raz]

Yes I'm underwhelmed at current prices, not buying in currently

[huxley]

Meanwhile KMD looking pretty good

[Lewylewylewy]

Also h and m are in NZ now

[winner69]

Meanwhile KMD looking pretty good

Amazing isn't it

Hope they don't disappoint

KMD one of those stocks /companies you need to have faith in

No doubt you have that faith - and probably will do OK

[winner69]

Close at 318 - that's good

Could say I've got the expected final dividend early if I cash up now.

Think I'll hang in there for a while longer to see what happens - might even get to 340, maybe 350 as the divie hounds startup piling in (but they should have got in at 300 odd)

[boysy]

Not sure about all the discounts they are offering getting spammed two or three emails a day I think the currency is the only thing in their favour at present

[winner69]

Not sure about all the discounts they are offering getting spammed two or three emails a day I think the currency is the only thing in their favour at present

I'm not convinced this year will that great ......early August usually an update.

Will this year be OK or disappointing ....won't be great though

Watching that chart lie a hawk .....need to keep the early dividend .....and any more gains that come before the update.

If out by then and the announcement is bad might even get a bonus dividend atacdeeplydiscounted price.

[JeremyALD]

Not sure about all the discounts they are offering getting spammed two or three emails a day I think the currency is the only thing in their favour at present

Reading the interium report Hallensteins profit was down significantly YOY, which was more than covered by Glassons performance. Seems to be that menswear is very competitive and margins are being squashed, but the discounting via email is overkill and gets very annoying.

The cold weather, exchange rate and strong overall result for the first half will mean a solid year IMO.

[Snow Leopard]

I will settle for 'adequate', 'reasonable' or a simple 'OK' year.

BTW there is probably an unsubscribe link in the emails.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[arc]

The news about Amazon coming to Australia next year is generating some high level thoughts on just how soon it will expand to NZ, possible 12 to 24 month timeframe ??.
The potential impact may be significant.

Thoughts folks...

[Robomo]

The news about Amazon coming to Australia next year is generating some high level thoughts on just how soon it will expand to NZ, possible 12 to 24 month timeframe ??.
The potential impact may be significant.

Thoughts folks...

I remember many years ago when the Warehouse started aggressively expanding there was panic that all other stores would be forced out of business. Didn't happen, eventually others found their niche and indeed improved their image/price/marketing etc. In the end it was only the badly run, smaller uneconomic stores that were forced out of business. Same when Supermarkets started - initially the smaller stores closed (I saw the impact when my uncle started the first 4 Square Supermarket in Christchurch about 1962) but now there are still lots of others (nite 'n day, on-the-spot, food bag, various corner delis etc) that find a profitable niche.

It will be the same with Amazon. Yes there will be an initial impact but others will adjust their business model to provide what Amazon can't.

[BlackPeter]

The news about Amazon coming to Australia next year is generating some high level thoughts on just how soon it will expand to NZ, possible 12 to 24 month timeframe ??.
The potential impact may be significant.

Thoughts folks...

Hard to say. Amazon would not be the first disruptor entering the Australian market but not following up with a move to NZ. We are just such a small and immaterial part of the world market that they may or may not bother. Remember when Aldi broke into the Australian market? We (knowing them from Europe) hoped that they might follow through to NZ to make live for Foodstuff / Progressive Enterprises a bit harder and for consumers so much more better. However - they never bothered. Amazon might be the same ...

[Beagle]

Currency over 75 cents U.S. now, nice tailwind there. SP been creeping back up and I am not surprised. Disc: Been quietly accumulating for dividend yield.

[arc]

Beagle, I agree, As the divi approaches the "interest" grows,
Same strategy here...

Im also waiting for STU to reach its "emotional overreaction bottom level" then time to borrow Couta's truck...

[Beagle]

Beagle, I agree, As the divi approaches the "interest" grows,
Same strategy here...

Im also waiting for STU to reach its "emotional overreaction bottom level" then time to borrow Couta's truck...

Coutta not lending his truck and trailer unit mate, currently full of A2, CUNNING !!!

[t.rexjr]

I remember many years ago when the Warehouse started aggressively expanding there was panic that all other stores would be forced out of business. Didn't happen, eventually others found their niche and indeed improved their image/price/marketing etc. In the end it was only the badly run, smaller uneconomic stores that were forced out of business. Same when Supermarkets started - initially the smaller stores closed (I saw the impact when my uncle started the first 4 Square Supermarket in Christchurch about 1962) but now there are still lots of others (nite 'n day, on-the-spot, food bag, various corner delis etc) that find a profitable niche.

It will be the same with Amazon. Yes there will be an initial impact but others will adjust their business model to provide what Amazon can't.

Supermarkets destroyed Fruit & veg and Butcheries. They used to be cash cows...

[arc]

Coutta not lending his truck and trailer unit mate, currently full of A2, CUNNING !!!

Damn... I thought he had a Haybarn he stored those goods in...


Supermarkets destroyed Fruit & veg and Butcheries. They used to be cash cows...
TRex, yes the "physical market" is always vulnerable to new tricks of the trade.
The Internet as a commercial tool still continues to change business landscapes. With Hallensteins existing web presence they are at least in the running. I think it will come down to their ability to "Bulk buy" goods and "overall throughput" to mitigate Amazons potential presence. Personally I dont discount actual bricks and mortar presence, there is something psychologically satisfying about "touch and try". Hallensteins -you may want to think about training some staff in helping the average "sense-less" guys with "Dress sense"... give them a competitive edge ...

[Topagent]

I have an 16 year old and 18 year old daughters and they love shopping online. So do their friends though do shop as well if what they want is from a store they haven't been to before. But after a few purchases they trust the sizing ect and are to busy socialising to go back and buy online instead.

[t.rexjr]

I have an 16 year old and 18 year old daughters and they love shopping online. So do their friends though do shop as well if what they want is from a store they haven't been to before. But after a few purchases they trust the sizing ect and are to busy socialising to go back and buy online instead.

Do they not hang out at the Mall/Glassons?

It'll be interesting to see if that changes once their income and ability to spend increases. I perceive online as being a one or two item shop where instore people end up getting one or two extra items.

Their bodies are likey to change as welll which makes instore buying more likely. Their is a hint of fear on this thread with online vs the future of instore. Yes things are changing and online is a growing market but don't underestimate the need or future of quality stores. Glassons is a no brainer for me. It has a vast, teenager to grannies market appeal. Hallensteins is the more likely to show a larger impact from online shopping. If they're any good at what they do they'll trott along happily in both worlds.

[arc]

I have an 16 year old and 18 year old daughters and they love shopping online. So do their friends though do shop as well if what they want is from a store they haven't been to before. But after a few purchases they trust the sizing ect and are to busy socialising to go back and buy online instead.

I am also noticing the differences with "Millennial children" They certainly display a different mind set to pre 1980's folk. For them there is no holding back on what goes up on facebook twitter, ??. its all about live-for-the-moment.
This is something that Businesses must come to grips with or risk being sidelined and marginalized.

[Jonboyz]

My wife's friends and work colleauges are mostly GenX. Apparently, most of them buy the bulk of their clothes online.

Amazon.com is highly disruptive to retail and although it might not completely replace physical stores it can certainly threaten their profitability. I'm very wary of investing in retail at the moment, and will avoid the sector for the meanwhile.

on the otherhand, amazon may be getting too big for its own boots and could be on the receiving end of antitrust/monopoly laws over the next few years...

Interesting read: http://www.cnbc.com/2017/07/10/heres-how-the-amazon-effect-is-hitting-the-apparel-industry.html

And

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11895380


disc. Sold all HLG 3-4 months ago. Hold Amazon.com stocks (approx 8% of portfolio)

[DarkHorse]

Thanks for the links.
It's interesting to note from CNBC re Amazon's foray into apparel:
- It's growing from a very small base - still a tiny fraction of the US market
- Most sales are in underwear - ie branded stuff you can't try on (most menswear I buy is 'own brand' - not at all like books or electronics. If you go to eg the Levis website they only refer to 'local stockists'...the status quo suits established high margin brands)
- Amazon are looking to buy bricks and mortar clothing stores to establish a physical presence

[Raz]

Thanks for the links.
It's interesting to note from CNBC re Amazon's foray into apparel:
- It's growing from a very small base - still a tiny fraction of the US market
- Most sales are in underwear - ie branded stuff you can't try on (most menswear I buy is 'own brand' - not at all like books or electronics. If you go to eg the Levis website they only refer to 'local stockists'...the status quo suits established high margin brands)
- Amazon are looking to buy bricks and mortar clothing stores to establish a physical presence

I go to Portland for my tax free shopping and always check out Washington Square Mall..they now have a amazon physical store...its compelling.

[see weed]

Close at 318 - that's good

Could say I've got the expected final dividend early if I cash up now.

Think I'll hang in there for a while longer to see what happens - might even get to 340, maybe 350 as the divie hounds startup piling in (but they should have got in at 300 odd)
Four months to wait for next div. Plenty of other divs. to chase before then eg AIR;).

[Kay]

Should we be expecting a trading update this/next week?

I only ask as previous form suggests there should be...or is it discretionary and I might be waiting for the full year in a month or two?

[winner69]

Should we be expecting a trading update this/next week?

I only ask as previous form suggests there should be...or is it discretionary and I might be waiting for the full year in a month or two?

they generally do don't they .....but maybe this time no news is good news

[Kay]

they generally do don't they .....but maybe this time no news is good news

I will be quite happy with average news and a friendly 16c dividend!

[Joshuatree]

Wow profit up 25%
Trading update and profit forecast (https://www.nzx.com/companies/HLG/announcements/305355)

[percy]

Wow profit up 25%
Trading update and profit forecast (https://www.nzx.com/companies/HLG/announcements/305355)

That's incredible.!

[Arbroath]

Given the first half result the second half is a bit average....npat margin in H2 is 6.1% the same as for FY16....its only the great first half that makes FY17 a better year.

Still a decent effort and a likely 16.5cps final dividend coming in December. Don't think the share price will do much on the news overall.

[winner69]

Wow profit up 25%
Trading update and profit forecast (https://www.nzx.com/companies/HLG/announcements/305355)

Awesome - but expected after the bad year they had in F16

I can say that including such an inane statement as below is a sign they are bored and felt they needed to pad the announcement out

'The Group’s balance sheet remains strong and future cash flow is projected to be positive. Stock levels are also well managed'

[winner69]

That's incredible.!

Not quite awesome though

Going from memory you said eps would be 30 cents or was it 35 cents - maybe that was me being outrageous

eps going to be about 29 cents . not too shabby

next year?

[Beagle]

Solid but not spectacular forecast but underscores this companies resilience in the face of increased competition and deserves to have a place in every true dividend hounds portfolio based on its long proven ability to pay a very high fully imputed dividend yield. Expecting 16.5 cps again in December. Second half turnover of $117m up just on $6m compared to PCP, (5.3%) and net profit based on mid point of forecast will be $8.07m this half compared to $6.88m in PCP up (17.3%). EPS forecast 29 cps.
Based on yesterday's closing price of $3.19 and assuming a final dividend of 16.5 cps fully imputed in addition to the interim dividend of 14.5 cps also fully imputed I calculate the gross dividend yield as (31 / 319) / 0.72 = 13.5%. Disc: Holding for dividend yield.

[winner69]

Given the first half result the second half is a bit average....npat margin in H2 is 6.1% the same as for FY16....its only the great first half that makes FY17 a better year.

Still a decent effort and a likely 16.5cps final dividend coming in December. Don't think the share price will do much on the news overall.

Yes H2 not as good as H1

I would hazard a guess things have slowed down quite a lot over the last few months (remember they said they were still on fire in March).

I see from Stats NZ Electronic Card spend data for July apparel was down again on last year

HLG guidance for F18 will be interesting but we will have to wait until the AGM before we get anything.

[Beagle]

I think given recent stat's for apparel and new competition HLG's profit announcement is solid and very credible and augers well for the ongoing veracity and durability of their long established business model.

[Snoopy]

I think given recent stat's for apparel and new competition HLG's profit announcement is solid and very credible and augers well for the ongoing veracity and durability of their long established business model.


But as for their ethics?

https://www.tearfund.org.nz/getmedia/135135c5-9701-4245-964b-e50864170bff/EthicalFashionReport_2017.pdf.aspx

Perhaps that is another question. Overall score for Glassons was a 'B-' with the following specifics noted:

1/ Company policies do not apply to their supply chain ( a biggie I think ).
2/ There is no public list of suppliers.
3/ Glassons has not even bothered to trace their suppliers of either raw materials or inputs and there are no plans to do so.
4/ Glassons does not share ethical audit reports or plans to correct any follies publicly.
5/ Glassons have a patchy record of industry collaboration.
6/ Glassons mostly use non-union workers and there is little collective bargaining. (another biggie ).
7/ Glassons has no functioning grievance mechanisms.
8/ Less than 25% of final manufacturing workers are on a living wage.
9/ None of the input producers get paid a living wage.

Not much to be proud about going around in a Hallensteins/Glasson top I reckon.

But I guess exploitation on the way to higher dividends is OK?

SNOOPY

discl: do not hold for ethical reasons

[winner69]

I think given recent stat's for apparel and new competition HLG's profit announcement is solid and very credible and augers well for the ongoing veracity and durability of their long established business model.

Yes, a very durable business, bit confused where veracity comes into it.

Generally generate solid cash flows - pays good divies and that's what the majority shareholders want

Might take my 'divie' early if it gets over 330 - that be a 30 cent divie for me and won't have to wait until November.

[Beagle]

veracity (vɛˈræsɪtɪ)
2. precision; accuracy

No question their stock management has been run with a great deal of precision and accuracy over the years. Stock turn is best of breed in the industry by miles so purchasing and sales execution has obviously been managed with a high degree of precision and accuracy even if as Snoopy suggests stock might be bought from cheap Bangladesh sources where minimum N.Z. labor rates aren't paid. Dividends are awesome and reliable too :)
Disc: Holding for reliable and strong dividend yield and accept that almost all multinational companies source product as efficiently as possible.

[JeremyALD]

Good result, but certainly challenges ahead into the next financial year. You've got to say though, the dividend yield is a stand out and they have maintained this for a very long time.

[Snoopy]

No question their stock management has been run with a great deal of precision and accuracy over the years. Stock turn is best of breed in the industry by miles so purchasing and sales execution has obviously been managed with a high degree of precision and accuracy even if as Snoopy suggests stock might be bought from cheap Bangladesh sources where minimum N.Z. labor rates aren't paid.


I don't think the Tearfund report suggested HLG wasn't paying an NZ living wage in Bangladesh. My impression was that they were not paying enough for a peasant to live on in Bangladesh even with third world living costs.



Dividends are awesome and reliable too :)
Disc: Holding for reliable and strong dividend yield and accept that almost all multinational companies source product as efficiently as possible.


Ah so the dividend money justifies the means, and because almost everyone else is doing it it must be OK. Gotcha.

SNOOPY

[Kay]

I don't think the Tearfund report suggested HLG wasn't paying an NZ living wage in Bangladesh. My impression was that they were not paying enough for a peasant to live on in Bangladesh even with third world living costs.



Ah so the dividend money justifies the means, and because almost everyone else is doing it it must be OK. Gotcha.

SNOOPY

Im sure one could debate the ethics of almost every item they buy within the supply chain of food/clothing/electronics/building materials etc. And if you were to take a stand on everything you might find yourself hungry and homeless quite quickly!

Whilst I would agree not perfect and ethics are personal to everybody..."Glassons has continued to improve to a B- from a C+ last year and a D- in 2015"...progress if something?

[Beagle]

I don't think the Tearfund report suggested HLG wasn't paying an NZ living wage in Bangladesh. My impression was that they were not paying enough for a peasant to live on in Bangladesh even with third world living costs.



Ah so the dividend money justifies the means, and because almost everyone else is doing it it must be OK. Gotcha.

SNOOPY

Haven't really got time to play tug of war over this bone with you at the moment but B- doesn't sound too bad at a real quick look.
Airlines cause filthy pollution, shall we all stop flying because of that ? Its a bone of contention with all sorts of products we buy or consume. Apple for instance have some highly questionable practices, shall we all stop buying their products ?

[Kay]

I will be quite happy with average news and a friendly 16c dividend!

I guess the announcement makes me quite happy!

[peat]

veracity (vɛˈræsɪtɪ)
2. precision; accuracy


Well blow me down with a feather duster (used to dust a shelf in a Glassons shop) , I consider myself well educated in the English language and I always thought veracity had more to do with truth and honesty and reliability.

[Beagle]

Well blow me down with a feather duster (used to dust a shelf in a Glassons shop) , I consider myself well educated in the English language and I always thought veracity had more to do with truth and honesty and reliability. I wouldn't disagree with you at all, usually the first explanation in any dictionary you look up but I referenced the second in post #1371 above...by the way...the truth is the earnings and dividend are honestly very reliable :p

[winner69]

Good result, but certainly challenges ahead into the next financial year. You've got to say though, the dividend yield is a stand out and they have maintained this for a very long time.

That's what the major shareholder wants - he gets it eh

[Beagle]

That's what the major shareholder wants - he gets it eh
Annual depreciation of ~ $7m underpins a dividend that slightly exceeds EPS.

[winner69]

Annual depreciation of ~ $7m underpins a dividend that slightly exceeds EPS.

Yes, operating cash flows are always pretty strong and pay for ongoing investment in the business.

But the pile of leftover cash has been shrinking over recent years as they maintain that 30 cent odd dividend

Still wondering by they mentioned cash flows in the announcement

[macduffy]

Yes, operating cash flows are always pretty strong and pay for ongoing investment in the business.

But the pile of leftover cash has been shrinking over recent years as they maintain that 30 cent odd dividend

Still wondering by they mentioned cash flows in the announcement

Reassurance on their ability to maintain dividends? Perhaps they've been reading your posts, winner!

;)

[Snoopy]

I'm sure one could debate the ethics of almost every item they buy within the supply chain of food/clothing/electronics/building materials etc. And if you were to take a stand on everything you might find yourself hungry and homeless quite quickly!


Some things are harder to buy 'ethically' than others. Difficult is a relative term, and so is ethical some some extent. But I don't think that buying 'ethical food' is all that difficult.

Clothing is more difficult. There is still stuff made in New Zealand, but you really have to search. You won't find NZ made clothing in shopping malls. The problem is that a lot of NZ made clothing is very good quality but also really expensive. Too expensive for the average family to buy. I have reached the age/stage when I can buy NZ made clothing. I wouldn't cast judgement on young families today who can't afford to do that.

What does get my dander up is the upmarket NZ icon brands like 'Icebreaker' ( D- ) who charge high prices and have all sorts of supply chain issues on a level way above anything that HLG might be accused of. Modern day slavery to feather the pockets of the privileged. At least with clothing from the Warehouse, it may have been made cheaply. But it is also sold cheaply so that those in NZ on a budget can benefit.

I agree that Hallensteins should not be at the top of any apparel black list. But giving HLG a B- grade is still 'sugar coating. IMO.



Whilst I would agree not perfect and ethics are personal to everybody..."Glassons has continued to improve to a B- from a C+ last year and a D- in 2015"...progress if something?


I think there is an argument for buying the 'relative best' of a 'doubtful bunch'. If all investors (and shoppers) did that, the 'average' should gradually edge higher. I wouldn't disagree with someone buying the most ethical that they could afford to buy either.


Haven't really got time to play tug of war over this bone with you at the moment but B- doesn't sound too bad at a real quick look.
Airlines cause filthy pollution, shall we all stop flying because of that ? Its a bone of contention with all sorts of products we buy or consume. Apple for instance have some highly questionable practices, shall we all stop buying their products ?


Airlines are an instance when there really isn't an alternative choice. Check out going from Auckland to London on a cruise boat verses the price to fly and you will see what I mean.
I wouldn't buy Apple products when there is an equivalent tech alternative.

SNOOPY

[Beagle]

I bought a lovely made in N.Z. alpaca jersey for a whopping $400 a few years back when I was in Arrowtown as a special treat to remind me of a special holiday. Very soft and a real joy to wear but only lasted about 10 wears before it looked shabby, (Alpaca wool is incredibly soft but that really counts against in the wear and durability department) so I tucked it away for special occasion use only but the moths found it and apparently love alpaca wool so within 6 months that was the end of that.
On the other hand a cheap polypropylene sweatshirt I bought from Haldenstein's ten years ago still looks fine and now the rotund beagle hound has slimmed down a bit it fits again too ! Any wonder why cheap and cheerful is popular !

[Snoopy]

I bought a lovely made in N.Z. alpaca jersey for a whopping $400 a few years back when I was in Arrowtown as a special treat to remind me of a special holiday. Very soft and a real joy to wear but only lasted about 10 wears before it looked shabby, (Alpaca wool is incredibly soft but that really counts against in the wear and durability department) so I tucked it away for special occasion use only but the moths found it and apparently love alpaca wool so within 6 months that was the end of that.
On the other hand a cheap polypropylene sweatshirt I bought from Hallenstein's ten years ago still looks fine and now the rotund beagle hound has slimmed down a bit it fits again too ! Any wonder why cheap and cheerful is popular !

Ten years ago your polyprop sweatshirt from Hallensteins may have been kiwi made! That is why it has lasted so well! You generally do have to pay a more expensive price for durability. But the statement doesn't work the other way around. IOW, just because something is expensive, does not automatically mean that it will be durable!

SNOOPY

[JeremyALD]

So I was doing some research last night and had a good read of the Annual Report and ASM. I'm trying to make my own assumptions for NPAT in FY17 if things trend in a similar way for the rest of the year. I appreciate this is a long way out, but thought it would be fun to create some assumptions based on what we've heard so far.

My observations were below:

Hallensteins

Still a very competitive environment and unlikely to see sales growth in FY17. Flat so far this year. They may get a bit more margin from products this year, but competition is resulting in some margin cutting.

My guess is NPAT will be slightly up this year due to a better winter trading period and improved margins due to exchange rates ect. I predict NPAT at 9 million, up from 8.5 million in FY16.

Storm

Sales are actually behind so far this year, but they have opened a new store in Queenstown which should lift revenue and sales.

Guessing NPAT will be flat at .8 million, but for good measure and the new store will round up to 1 million.

Glassons Australia

Here's where the big turnaround will be and where I project long term will come from. In recent announcements, Hallensteins is confident the store will return to profit in FY17. Sales are up over 10% and the stores are seeing a good turnaround.

Guess is NPAT will be between 1 and 2 million, up from a loss of 1.9 million in FY16. I think results will further improve in FY18 which is great for the Group.

Glassons New Zealand

Improved margin is expected to be witnessed in FY17 and sales are up so far. Glassons NZ is always a solid performer and this year should be no different.

Based on the above sales increase estimating NPAT of 6 million up from 5.5 million in FY17.

Overall

Based on fairly conservative estimates and what the Group has announced I'm predicting NPAT for Hallensteins in FY17 in the range of 16 to 18 million. There will definitely be considerable improvement in the Glassons business, with fairly flat sales across Storm and Hallensteins; however higher margins should also improve their respective NPAT performance.

Performance should be fairly in line with the Groups performance in 2013 and 2015 and I would think all going well should support a SP above $3.50.

Pretty happy with my predictions from Jan :D

[Beagle]

Pretty happy with my predictions from Jan :D

Kudos to you mate, well done. Shame it didn't support the price as you suggested but did give some of us the chance to get back in at ~ $3 :)

[winner69]

Topshot in receivership - Round 1 to HLG

But then many on this thread would say if Topshot can't hack it in NZ and Australia then the writing really on the wall for HLG

[percy]

Topshot in receivership - Round 1 to HLG

But then many on this thread would say if Topshot can't hack it in NZ and Australia then the writing really on the wall for HLG

Maybe,but I think any business that is a franchise of a UK firm would face seasonal and a number of other issues.
UK firm would not let them have next season's design before themselves.
HLG have control over design,store format,store location,advertising,online model, and logistics, without paying any franchise fees.

[Beagle]

Topshot in receivership - Round 1 to HLG

But then many on this thread would say if Topshot can't hack it in NZ and Australia then the writing really on the wall for HLG

No, HLG have a proven resilient model. Many naysayers on here were predicting Top shop would be the beginning of the end for HLG but have proved themselves ineffective at making in roads into HLG's well established business model.
http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/d50b4746/topshop-operator-calls-in-receivers-as-trading-losses-mount.html?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Topshop%20operator%20calls%20in%20rec eivers%20as%20trading%20losses%20mount&utm_content=Topshop%20operator%20calls%20in%20rece ivers%20as%20trading%20losses%20mount+CID_9f6798cb c51f2cd5ee70f983e1539f4a&utm_source=Email%20marketing%20software&utm_term=httpwwwsharechatconzarticled50b4746topsho p-operator-calls-in-receivers-as-trading-losses-mounthtml
Disc: Hold HLG for their very long proven history of paying very high fully imputed dividends.

[iceman]

I wonder who is the secured lender calling the shots ?

[Snow Leopard]

Topshot in receivership - Round 1 to HLG

But then many on this thread would say if Topshot can't hack it in NZ and Australia then the writing really on the wall for HLG

Topshop in receivership - Round 1 to HLG

If Topshop can't hack it in NZ and Australia then the writing is really on the wall for other recent come-over multinationals as well.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[winner69]

I wonder who is the secured lender calling the shots ?

BNZ I understand but I think it is slightly more complicated than that

A couple of big names involved eh

[Raz]

BNZ I understand but I think it is slightly more complicated than that

A couple of big names involved eh

Business model way wrong....price points way wrong....quality way wrong..where do go after that.....

[Beagle]

Topshop in receivership - Round 1 to HLG

If Topshop can't hack it in NZ and Australia then the writing is really on the wall for other recent come-over multinationals as well.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

I 'm with you PT on this one. Hard to establish one or two shops and make a profit. After the initial enthusiasm from the millennials has evaporated...

[Raz]

I 'm with you PT on this one. Hard to establish one or two shops and make a profit. After the initial enthusiasm from the millennials has evaporated...

Not so sure on that one...usually I would agree however H & M in particular has way more sustained foot traffic than nearly any other shop in the country..don't know if that coverts to sales as not close enough to them...week in, week out way more than Zara or Top Shop ever have achieved...I'm involved with a key restaurant in a major city in the US , we serve over 6000 people per day...you may well be surprised what a key site can achieve... H & M has a similar vibe when i pass it at sylvia park..they may struggle to find another site to build off that thou...

[Jay]

H & M opening in the new Christchurch Mall thingy in the next few days or may have been today, I read - percy can probably confirm

[Raz]

H & M opening in the new Christchurch Mall thingy in the next few days or may have been today, I read - percy can probably confirm
This weekend

[percy]

Oh dear..........and I thought she was doing so well.?

[Beagle]

It is disappointing that her new tenure was fairly short but the Euro style format of the remodeled Glassons stores has been performing very well and the company is able to roll that refreshed format out as capex allows with or without her. Her replacement could have some other good idea's.

[iceman]

Oh dear..........and I thought she was doing so well.?

Yes she will be missed

[winner69]

It is disappointing that her new tenure was fairly short but the Euro style format of the remodeled Glassons stores has been performing very well and the company is able to roll that refreshed format out as capex allows with or without her. Her replacement could have some other good idea's.

Are we talking about the miracle woman who can't do no wromg?

[winner69]

Ah yes - it is Di leaving ....and pretty soon as well

Maybe she has noticed things are actually pretty slack in this sector and knows F18 not going to be that flash. H217 wasn't that great ..... a continuation maybe?

[percy]

Ah yes - it is Di leaving ....and pretty soon as well

Maybe she has noticed things are actually pretty slack in this sector and knows F18 not going to be that flash. H217 wasn't that great ..... a continuation maybe?

Maybe the fun will be seeing where she pops up next,,,H&M or one of the other's ,may see the advantages of having a very experienced local on board. ?

[Robomo]

Maybe,but I think any business that is a franchise of a UK firm would face seasonal and a number of other issues.
UK firm would not let them have next season's design before themselves.
HLG have control over design,store format,store location,advertising,online model, and logistics, without paying any franchise fees.

Astute observation Percy.

I partially heard an interview on the car radio yesterday (ZB or Radio National, whatever was playing at the time) with someone who appeared to be the Receiver (again unknown) who obviously had considerable knowledge of TopShop. He was saying that there was initially good foot traffic when they opened but this did not necessarily translate into sales. Importantly, a lot of their clothing was sourced from the UK and were mostly the items they could not sell there. So TopShop NZ (and probably Australia as well) were being used as a disposals store but still asking Top prices (pun intended). Not good business practice and quite the opposite of how H & G manage their operations.

[Beagle]

Are we talking about the miracle woman who can't do no wromg?
Wasn't it you that reminded me at the time of her appointment that she didn't do too well at Pumpkin Patch ?
Sales as confirmed by the company recently for the year to 31 July 2017 were solid and shareholders are very well positioned for their usual very generous fully imputed dividend in early December just in time to treat their families to some Christmas cheer.
Disc: holding and fully cognisant of the fact that recently appointed executives almost always put all their best idea's out there in the first 12 months.
In my opinion its well worth noting that sales for HLG in the second half rose at a faster rate than the extremely well respected Briscoes group over the same period who have noted most unusual climatic conditions. http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/8923d5ec/briscoe-lifts-first-half-profit-4-8-amid-ongoing-rivalry-unusual-weather.html?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Briscoe%20lifts%20first-half%20profit%2048%20amid%20ongoing%20rivalry%20un usual%20weather&utm_content=Briscoe%20lifts%20first-half%20profit%2048%20amid%20ongoing%20rivalry%20un usual%20weather+CID_4d1524f1d80fdc8603b11736f32df9 37&utm_source=Email%20marketing%20software&utm_term=httpwwwsharechatconzarticle8923d5ecbrisco e-lifts-first-half-profit-4-8-amid-ongoing-rivalry-unusual-weatherhtml
Also worth noting is that the currency continues to trade at a level that's supportive for HLG.
Disc: Continuing to hold and embrace the inner possum.

[winner69]

Glad I've already collected my dividend plus a nice capital gain as well .... and haven't had to wait until November

Having faith in my raeding of the market

If the share price goes below $3 before the ex date might have a go at collecting another dividend.

Cool eh!

[winner69]

Has Di leaving freaked the market out - down a bit since the announcement

[Beagle]

Has Di leaving freaked the market out - down a bit since the announcement

I can almost see you in my minds eye. Getting all set like a big cat, (Tiger even ?) ready to pounce :)

[winner69]

I can almost see you in my minds eye. Getting all set like a big cat, (Tiger even ?) ready to pounce :)

.......especially so seeing I've already collected my dividend plus some more

[Beagle]

.......especially so seeing I've already collected my dividend plus some more

You're as cunning as a hungry beagle mate, well done :)

[winner69]

Full year as expected. Divide a fraction higher than most thought

Important bit is -

Future Outlook
The first 7 weeks of the new financial year has seen sales grow +5.48% on the prior year. The improved buying strategy has allowed the gross margin rate to also increase on last year. Customers have reacted well to new seasons stock and web sales continue to show increased rates of growth. The company is continuing to invest in stores with refurbishments planned for both Hallenstein Brothers and Glassons in Queensgate shopping centre in Wellington this season and 2 new stores in Australia. The group is focused on ensuring our performance going into Christmas trading.


So even more profits in F18 ($20m sounds good) and bigger divies as well

Reckon share price will be 4 bucks sooner than later

[Beagle]

Yipee ! the hound is happy and wagging his tail gleefully. Kept the faith with this one against a barrage of negativism that XYZ or ABC were going to dramatically undermine the profitability of HLG's business model. Gotta love the resilience of these companies that have been around longer than the hound has.

https://www.nzx.com/companies/HLG/announcements/307911
Very strong growth for Glassons in Australia augers very well for the future. Sales up over 20% with 6 reformatted stores done last year. As I have mentioned before, (although not pretending to be an expert on women's store appeal) the Euro fresh style of the St Lukes Glassons impressed me and it seems its certainly making an impact across the Tasman.

The lower Kiwi / Aussie cross will help with conversion of earning next year too.
17 cps fully imputed final dividend exceeded my expectations for a 16.5 cps final and what a nice time to pay it out, just before Xmas.
Disc Happy hound, inclined to move towards BBB, (beagle busy buying) rating.
I think its clear there is genuine potential with Glassons in Australia and its a much bigger market than New Zealand !
People often talk about Amazon, Top Shop or whatever other company eating HLG's lunch but what about HLG eating Australian retailers lunch !

[percy]

An excellent result.
Interesting to note online sales were up an incredible 44% ,and now account for 9% of revenue.

[Beagle]

Bought more at the open. Market will take a while to understand Glassons potential in Australia and while its doing so the beagle will be busy buying for the superb 13.9% gross dividend yield, (expecting 33 cps next year) With this company you are being paid extremely well indeed to wait and enjoy even more growth.
As Percy has noted the company is clearly keeping up with its thing regarding online product offer and that's always a good thing.

[percy]

Did not buy any more TIL today.'
Instead brought HLG.

[Beagle]

Did not buy any more TIL today.'
Instead brought HLG.

Welcome back on board. Everyone knows you're not a big fan of retail generally so this is a vote of confidence and we're singing (barking? ) :) from the same hymn sheet here as I added more yesterday too.

[Ggcc]

In glassons now with the mrs. More staff than customers. They must earn a fortune from the clothes

[percy]

Welcome back on board. Everyone knows you're not a big fan of retail generally so this is a vote of confidence and we're singing (barking? ) :) from the same hymn sheet here as I added more yesterday too.

Yes I was very surprised with their result.New format stores are performing well,as are new stores,while poor performing stores are closed.So funds are being recycled.Careful use of capital.Online sales at 9% of total revenue is very positive.Growing at 44% means they are finding their market.Easily scaled up.
Retail remains a very difficult sector,so we have to invest with great care.Mall landlords don't leave much on the table for their tenants,and that's why I like seeing big online sales increases.
I now own two retailers.!!! Shock,horror.!!..lol.
The other one is in Aussie.LOV.Their business model is the best retail model I have ever seen.

[percy]

In glassons now with the mrs. More staff than customers. They must earn a fortune from the clothes

Blast I can't sell my shares until Monday.!!..lol.
And yes the margins are very healthy.Have to be if you want to stay in business.

[iceman]

Yes I was very surprised with their result.New format stores are performing well,as are new stores,while poor performing stores are closed.So funds are being recycled.Careful use of capital.Online sales at 9% of total revenue is very positive.Growing at 44% means they are finding their market.Easily scaled up.
Retail remains a very difficult sector,so we have to invest with great care.Mall landlords don't leave much on the table for their tenants,and that's why I like seeing big online sales increases.
I now own two retailers.!!! Shock,horror.!!..lol.
The other one is in Aussie.LOV.Their business model is the best retail model I have ever seen.

Same here Percy. I am not an enthusiastic investor in retailers but bought a small parcel on Friday after seeing their stunning result. They sure know how to run retail businesses.

[Beagle]

Same here Percy. I am not an enthusiastic investor in retailers but bought a small parcel on Friday after seeing their stunning result. They sure know how to run retail businesses.

This is great, so many experienced investors can't possibly all be wrong :lol: Feeling really good about this one and what about the timing of that 17 cent final divvy payment, exactly one week before Christmas...can I have my divvy gift wrapped with a pretty red bow on it please :)

[see weed]

This is great, so many experienced investors can't possibly all be wrong :lol: Feeling really good about this one and what about the timing of that 17 cent final divvy payment, exactly one week before Christmas...can I have my divvy gift wrapped with a pretty red bow on it please :)
Another thing I mentioned about 9-12 months ago Ex div Nov. Nice big payout Dec. then about 18 weeks later it goes ex div again for the April div. I am wanting to buy another 33,000 before ex div date, and will pay up to 3.40-3.50;).

[Beagle]

Another thing I mentioned about 9-12 months ago Ex div Nov. Nice big payout Dec. then about 18 weeks later it goes ex div again for the April div. I am wanting to buy another 33,000 before ex div date, and will pay up to 3.40-3.50;).

Better join the hunt then, this beagle is leading the charge :)

[see weed]

Better join the hunt then, this beagle is leading the charge :)
Get in behind and join the queue. Sit mr Beagle sit. Now beg. That's good, you can have yours for 3.40:p.

[winner69]

HLG increased NPBT by $5.0m in F17 over F16

Some $8.8m came from selling more stuff in F17 and $5.3m came from improved gross margins compared to F16. The cost of doing business (expenses) increased by $9.1m - which gives the $5.0m extra profit

Highlight would have been the amazing gross margin in the second half of the year - this was nearly 60% compared to 56.5% in same period in F16. Is 60% sustainable?

Dividends paid were again more than free cash flow.

Their mountain of cash has shrunk from $23.7 in F15 to $12.5m in F17 - but as long as its going to shareholders that's OK. Probably last for a while yet but wouldn't want a 'bad' year in the foreseeable future.

Already collected 2 early diviidends in last month so I'm happy - hanging in there for another

[winner69]

Glassons have one less competitor
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/97529712/kimberleys-fashion-in-receivership-after-decades-in-business

[percy]

Glassons have one less competitor
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/97529712/kimberleys-fashion-in-receivership-after-decades-in-business

From Percy's book of stories.
When Kimberley's first started out it was in the years of stores being open Monday to Friday only.
Kimberley's had a store in Merivale, and opened their second store in New Brighton, which was the only area in Christchurch which was allowed to open on a Saturday.Not having the money to stock both stores, it was a matter of moving stock from Merivale to New Brighton on a Friday night, and then moving it back to Merivale on a Sunday.Hard work.So Kimberley's have gone,Merivale and Northlands Paper Plus have closed,along with Newmarket Paper Plus.

ps.Mall rents are cruel.

[minimoke]

From Percy's book of stories.
When Kimberley's first started out it was in the years of stores being open Monday to Friday only.
Kimberley's had a store in Merivale, and opened their second store in New Brighton, which was the only area in Christchurch which was allowed to open on a Saturday.Not having the money to stock both stores, it was a matter of moving stock from Merivale to New Brighton on a Friday night, and then moving it back to Merivale on a Sunday.Hard work.So Kimberley's have gone,Merivale and Northlands Paper Plus have closed,along with Newmarket Paper Plus.

ps.Mall rents are cruel.
There was that other womans shop next door that closed not so long ago (Quins?)

I have no interest in retail at the moment - Amazon strikes me as posing too big a threat to box type retailers. Warehouse may be the one exception - but I've been in and out of them profitably already.

[percy]

There was that other womans shop next door that closed not so long ago (Quins?)

I have no interest in retail at the moment - Amazon strikes me as posing too big a threat to box type retailers. Warehouse may be the one exception - but I've been in and out of them profitably already.

Another great story.Margaret Quinn had an eye for fashion and decided to open a fashion store in Merivale.Was very difficult for a new store to attract a designer label to sell.She opened with 5 labels.She and her builder husband owned their own store on Papanui Road that backed onto what would become Merivale Mall.Then when the Mall was developed their store fitted into the Mall.I think they sold their property to the mall and rented space in the mall.I think she tried without success to sell the business before she diedThe store closed.

For legal reasons I can not talk about Merivale Paper Plus closing,while Whitcoulls will open in Merivale Mall.
I do know book lovers will be very unhappy.

[Hectorplains]

Another great story.Margaret Quinn had an eye for fashion and decided to open a fashion store in Merivale.Was very difficult for a new store to attract a designer label to sell.She opened with 5 labels.She and her builder husband owned their own store on Papanui Road that backed onto what would become Merivale Mall.Then when the Mall was developed their store fitted into the Mall.I think they sold their property to the mall and rented space in the mall.I think she tried without success to sell the business before she diedThe store closed.

For legal reasons I can not talk about Merivale Paper Plus closing,while Whitcoulls will open in Merivale Mall.
I do know book lovers will be very unhappy.


I'll respect the dead and stay quiet on my experiences with the Quinns...

Anyhow - https://www.nzx.com/companies/HLG/announcements/308347

"Experience with the brand" on "the journey" - seems it now takes two to do the work of the wonder Di.

More promo from within...

[Beagle]

I think its clear with the stunning 21% increase in Glassons Australia sales over the last year and given the Aussie market is at least five times the size of ours, the company is placing extra management resource into growing Australian sales and looking to mow some of the Australian apparel retailers grass for them. Who better than the best representative from the Glassons family who have a substantial stake in the company to drive this momentum forward ! Everyone thinks of this stock as nothing but a dividend hounds hold but recent sales momentum suggests there is some growth potential that I suspect the market has yet to fully appreciate. A real value buy on a near 14% gross yield trading cum its fully imputed 17 cent final divvy with hidden growth potential for those in the know :sneaky2:
Contrary to the raging populist theory that Amazon will be the be and end all of all things retail to all people I truly believe that the vast majority of people still want to try clothes on for fit, style, fabric and feel before committing to a retail purchase.

[Hectorplains]

I think its clear with the stunning 21% increase in Glassons Australia sales over the last year and given the Aussie market is at least five times the size of ours, the company is placing extra management resource into growing Australian sales and looking to mow some of the Australian apparel retailers grass for them.

Nice ramp but the reality is while the market may be 5xNZ, sales of Glassons Australia are half that of Glassons NZ. Glassons Australia had been trading at a loss - no mention was made of what their 'return to profit' means in real figures in the Interim.

From HLG report 2016, "Difficulties in securing effective management for Glassons havecaused a lack of product continuity and fashionability which hasimpacted both sales and margin. That key issue was addressedwith the appointment of Di Humphries in April 2016." The "best representative of the Glassons' family" was not good enough then...

[Beagle]

Nice ramp but the reality is while the market may be 5xNZ, sales of Glassons Australia are half that of Glassons NZ. Glassons Australia had been trading at a loss - no mention was made of what their 'return to profit' means in real figures in the Interim.

From HLG report 2016, "Difficulties in securing effective management for Glassons havecaused a lack of product continuity and fashionability which hasimpacted both sales and margin. That key issue was addressedwith the appointment of Di Humphries in April 2016." The "best representative of the Glassons' family" was not good enough then...

Obviously they see more potential with the new format stores with the benefit of 18 months more market evidence...after all, as I am sure most would agree, all retail involves a degree of trail and error. As usual with all companies time will tell but unlike in the vast majority of other cases, in this case HLG shareholders are being paid extremely handsomely so even if there's no real profitability gains in Australia the fallback position of being a superb dividend hounds stock has its own unique attributes. Almost unmatched gross dividend yield compared to any other NZX stock ?

[minimoke]

Contrary to the raging populist theory that Amazon will be the be and end all of all things retail to all people I truly believe that the vast majority of people still want to try clothes on for fit, style, fabric and feel before committing to a retail purchase.
I've been clearing the neighbours letter box for the last month or so. I am surprised how many catalogies come through the mail selling clothing - from bras and shoes and coats to everything you would want to wear. All sorts of catalogues. All by mail order. Perhaps its like me - I know my shoe size and just go straight to Amazon and buy shoes with the same size.

The issue isnt about the clothing - its about the shopping experience. If the retailer can make it a repeatable positive experience then there is life in brick and mortar shops.

(disc - I'm probably in the minority and find shopping for clothes a total bore so dont do it until I really have to. And when i do its not about the experience unless I can get in and out as quick as possible)

[Beagle]

Shoes are the one and only item of clothing I buy online. I know exactly what I want and my size. I don't like shopping for clothes either, in fact I detest it but its safer to buy them in person to make sure they fit properly, look good and the fabric feels good and appears to be well made and should be reasonably durable.

[Hectorplains]

Shoes are the one and only item of clothing I buy online. I know exactly what I want and my size. I don't like shopping for clothes either, in fact I detest it but its safer to buy them in person to make sure they fit properly, look good and the fabric feels good and appears to be well made and should be reasonably durable.

NZ online spending increased 16% last year (on the back of 14% the year before.) Clothing is on the of the categories leading that charge. Times are good for HLG right now but change is happening quickly. HLG's online ability is not one I'd be banking on for future growth.

[winner69]

A lot of faith in Australia helping HLG grow in F18

Things not looking too good for retailers in OZ
http://www.news.com.au/finance/economy/australian-economy/why-the-worst-retail-sales-result-in-seven-years-has-experts-worried/news-story/c24f312fc2c84cf33655da9c5883a336

Looking at the actual numbers Clothing retail sector sort of hanging in there at the moment - not booming

[minimoke]

Being a bit nosey another of these catalogues has turned up in the mail - how many are there!! A blouse and necklace set for $59.99 or 2 payments of $29.99. So online is offering a bit of a finance type deal as well. No idea of the quality though

[percy]

NZ online spending increased 16% last year (on the back of 14% the year before.) Clothing is on the of the categories leading that charge. Times are good for HLG right now but change is happening quickly. HLG's online ability is not one I'd be banking on for future growth.

HLG online sales increased 44%.Gaining momentum.

[percy]

Being a bit nosey another of these catalogues has turned up in the mail - how many are there!! A blouse and necklace set for $59.99 or 2 payments of $29.99. So online is offering a bit of a finance type deal as well. No idea of the quality though

Try them.
I am sure we all would love to see you modelling them.!
We may even make the second payment for you.!..lol.

[Hectorplains]

HLG online sales increased 44%.Gaining momentum.

That's a 44% increase off a low base - it's the same story being sold by ASX strugglers Premier (Jays Jays, Dotti, Just Jeans et al.) Their total online sales up 48% this year! . HLG are saying online is now 9% of their sales. That's what the average Aussie rag retailer was getting 2 years ago. HLG have been in catch up mode with their online presence. They're now just below the total percentage for NZ online spend with NZ Companies (10%) and I don't see it going North of there... even if they resort to promotions that cannibalise in store sales.
.

[percy]

That's a 44% increase off a low base - it's the same story being sold by ASX strugglers Premier (Jays Jays, Dotti, Just Jeans et al.) Their total online sales up 48% this year! . HLG are saying online is now 9% of their sales. That's what the average Aussie rag retailer was getting 2 years ago. HLG have been in catch up mode with their online presence. They're now just below the total percentage for NZ online spend with NZ Companies (10%) and I don't see it going North of there... even if they resort to promotions that cannibalise in store sales.
.

Will surge if they went with estaronline.com

[Hectorplains]

Will surge if they went with estaronline.com

LOL, you're incorrigible!

[JeremyALD]

That's a 44% increase off a low base - it's the same story being sold by ASX strugglers Premier (Jays Jays, Dotti, Just Jeans et al.) Their total online sales up 48% this year! . HLG are saying online is now 9% of their sales. That's what the average Aussie rag retailer was getting 2 years ago. HLG have been in catch up mode with their online presence. They're now just below the total percentage for NZ online spend with NZ Companies (10%) and I don't see it going North of there... even if they resort to promotions that cannibalise in store sales.
.

Hallensteins also give huge discounts online. I get a 30% to 45% off everything voucher sent to me at least once a month encouraging me to spend online

[waikare]

Hallensteins also give huge discounts online. I get a 30% to 45% off everything voucher sent to me at least once a month encouraging me to spend online

Does this kind of marketing work, and do you spend more, being the fact that you receive a hefty discount, or would you have brought it any way...........

[Beagle]

Does this kind of marketing work, and do you spend more, being the fact that you receive a hefty discount, or would you have brought it any way...........

Ask Rod Duke, he's been doing it for years with Briscoes.

[JeremyALD]

Does this kind of marketing work, and do you spend more, being the fact that you receive a hefty discount, or would you have brought it any way...........

For me yes and no. I have purchased two pairs of shoes at 45% off that I would of never bought at Hallensteins and some work clothes that I may of may not of bought in store. However I never would buy in store anymore as I just wait until I'm sent a discount.

[winner69]

For me yes and no. I have purchased two pairs of shoes at 45% off that I would of never bought at Hallensteins and some work clothes that I may of may not of bought in store. However I never would buy in store anymore as I just wait until I'm sent a discount.

Good, the plan is working

They have hooked you

[Beagle]

Good, the plan is working

They have hooked you

Exactly mate. Kathmandu and Briscoes have been using this strategy for years. If you're not buying at a sale you're paying far too much and the full retail price is actually quite disingenuous. With Briscoes its easy, just buy on a Thursday as there's a sale every single week.

[JeremyALD]

Good, the plan is working

They have hooked you

They have a spinning wheel is pretty effective. You spin it to find out what your discount is, have a chance to win $500 and have to spend the discount within an hour of spinning.

Maybe I am hooked :p

[winner69]

Electronic Card Spend September month from Stats NZ - apparel sector sales down on September last year

Things getting a bit tougher for NZ retailers

[winner69]

Importers won't be happy

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/97721263/day-three-of-negotiations--nz-first-and-labour-up-first-then-national

[couta1]

Holding an XXOS sized holding of these pups now, looking forward to a nice big pre Christmas divvy. PS-Higher minimum wage means more money for your average punter to spend on clothing.

[Beagle]

I had a very quick skim read of the HLG annual report released today online, see NZX release here https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/268410.pdf . Easy report to read and not just the numbers that look pretty if you know what I mean :D, (of course the resident hound is just as handsome as the blokes in there lol), well run business, great stock turn, sales growing strongly in Australia, very slick and long standing retail operators who are committed to providing a positive shopping experience. Trades on a PE of just 11 with very positive sales growth and a gross dividend yield of (31.5 / 328) / 0.72 = 13.3% and trades cum a 17 cent fully imputed dividend due in December.
M sized position and happy holder.

[JeremyALD]

Holding an XXOS sized holding of these pups now, looking forward to a nice big pre Christmas divvy. PS-Higher minimum wage means more money for your average punter to spend on clothing.

Offset by higher staffing cost?

[winner69]

Holding an XXOS sized holding of these pups now, looking forward to a nice big pre Christmas divvy. PS-Higher minimum wage means more money for your average punter to spend on clothing.

You going to XXXOS or even XXXXXOX soon

I've already collected by dividend ....twice

[JeremyALD]

Considering picking these back up again. What are your thoughts on the lower NZ dollar. Will this impact HLG or are they mostly hedged?

[TheHunter]

Considering picking these back up again. What are your thoughts on the lower NZ dollar. Will this impact HLG or are they mostly hedged?

~60% hedged on 12 month rolling basis off the top of my head so minor impact in the near term.

Dividends looking very appealing in the short term.

[couta1]

Offset by higher staffing cost? I doubt any of their staff are on under $16.50 so won't have any effect over the next year or so.

[JeremyALD]

I doubt any of their staff are on under $16.50 so won't have any effect over the next year or so.

Hmmm my friend worked at HLG a few years ago and he got minimum wage, but did receive some commission so probably tipped him over.

[minimoke]

I doubt any of their staff are on under $16.50 so won't have any effect over the next year or so.
The trouble with minimum wage is that its a bit like the rising tide. Increase it and you need to adjust relativities which will see all wages rise down that end of the pay scales.

[couta1]

You going to XXXOS or even XXXXXOX soon

I've already collected by dividend ....twice Yeah will probably add another X before the X divvy date, I don't mind taking big holdings in companies that have a proven track record and have stood the test of time through both good and bad.

[Beagle]

Can learn more about their long and successful track record at the investor center https://www.hallensteinglasson.co.nz/investment-centre, oh my goodness is that more eye candy :blush:

[macduffy]

Sucked me in by that last comment there, doggie. Now I suppose I'll have to buy the shares!

;)

[Beagle]

LOL, the fundamental's are just as attractive too :)

[couta1]

Good article in the Herald about why NZ bricks and mortar retail will continue to do well when compared to the likes of the US, our retail footprint is small in comparison.

[peat]

Good article in the Herald about why NZ bricks and mortar retail will continue to do well when compared to the likes of the US, our retail footprint is small in comparison.

you did see who wrote it though?

[couta1]

you did see who wrote it though? Yep, article still raises some valid points of difference though.

[Beagle]

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11938088

As a very regular visitor to the Lynnmall / brickworks I feel well placed to comment.
Before that ~ $40m addition to the mall the mall was looking tired and one or two vacancies were starting to emerge. Since the addition including bringing back a really good movie experience to Lynnmall the place is far more vibrant. HLG have both a Glassons and Hallensteins store in Lynmall.

In the very long term I expect there is the possibility of rationalizing stores to having just one co-branded store but for the foreseeable future I maintain that the vast majority of people will still want to visit their local mall for the overall experience including multiple dining and shopping options and I maintain the vast majority of people still want to try clothes on for the hounds law of four F's (fit, feel, fashion and fabric).

Good well managed companies like HLG with excellent stock turn will be around for a very long time and provide a sound foundational basis to any food loving dividend hounds requirements :)

[winner69]

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11938088

As a very regular visitor to the Lynnmall / brickworks I feel well placed to comment.
Before that ~ $40m addition to the mall the mall was looking tired and one or two vacancies were starting to emerge. Since the addition including bringing back a really good movie experience to Lynnmall the place is far more vibrant. HLG have both a Glassons and Hallensteins store in Lynmall.

In the very long term I expect there is the possibility of rationalizing stores to having just one co-branded store but for the foreseeable future I maintain that the vast majority of people will still want to visit their local mall for the overall experience including multiple dining and shopping options and I maintain the vast majority of people still want to try clothes on for the hounds law of four F's (fit, feel, fashion and fabric).

Good well managed companies like HLG with excellent stock turn will be around for a very long time and provide a sound foundational basis to any food loving dividend hounds requirements :)

The new Wellington stories combined .....as is the Christchurch one

[Beagle]

The new Wellington stories combined .....as is the Christchurch one

Thanks for the heads-up, seems the hounds nose is still sniffing the breeze correctly. Gives them truck loads of scope for future rationalization of stores as they continue to grow their online presence at good pace.

Heck these must be good if Percy likes them, (Percy well known for not liking retail). $3.50 - $3.60 cum dividend just before they go ex ?

[percy]

Yes I hold both HLG in NZ and LOV in Aussie.
A Labour government is always positive for retail.
A lower NZ $ is bad for HLG.
A lot may depend on young Glasson having retail blood in his veins,and growing Aussie.
So not all plain sailing.
Mall rents remain killers.

[Beagle]

Yes I hold both HLG in NZ and LOV in Aussie.
A Labour government is always positive for retail.
A lower NZ $ is bad for HLG.
A lot may depend on young Glasson having retail blood in his veins,and growing Aussie.
So not all plain sailing.
Mall rents remain killers.

Which is exactly why their future direction will be combined Glassons / Hallensteins stores saving potentially a significant part of their occupancy costs (2017 $27.4m) as they continue to ramp up online sales channels. I back these guys because they've been in business a long time and are very good operators.

[couta1]

Yes I hold both HLG in NZ and LOV in Aussie.
A Labour government is always positive for retail.
A lower NZ $ is bad for HLG.
A lot may depend on young Glasson having retail blood in his veins,and growing Aussie.
So not all plain sailing.
Mall rents remain killers. Not all plain sailing but with the history this company carries, I'm feeling well positioned for an extra large divvy. PS-Currently makes up 33% of my portfolio which I reckon is a pretty balsy holding.

[TheHunter]

Another very happy holder over here for a the past few years :t_up:

Divi looking excellent for FY18, and probably flat thereafter given fx

[percy]

Which is exactly why their future direction will be combined Glassons / Hallensteins stores saving potentially a significant part of their occupancy costs (2017 $27.4m) as they continue to ramp up online sales channels. I back these guys because they've been in business a long time and are very good operators.

I see combined Glassos/Hallensteins stores as a very big negative.Not workable.
Next to each other maybe,but Glassons must be next door to other women fashion retailers.
Malls are now concentrating on fashion/clothing,services [Spark etc] and food.

[Beagle]

I see combined Glassos/Hallensteins stores as a very big negative.Not workable.
Next to each other maybe,but Glassons must be next door to other women fashion retailers.
Malls are now concentrating on fashion/clothing,services [Spark etc] and food.

I am rather curious regarding your viewpoint as Farmers seem to integrate women's, men's and kids clothing pretty successfully. Care to expand upon why you feel this wouldn't work for HLG ?

[TheHunter]

I am rather curious regarding your viewpoint as Farmers seem to integrate women's, men's and kids clothing pretty successfully. Care to expand upon why you feel this wouldn't work for HLG ?

Makes rent and overheads cheaper atleast...

[percy]

I am rather curious regarding your viewpoint as Farmers seem to integrate women's, men's and kids clothing pretty successfully. Care to expand upon why you feel this wouldn't work for HLG ?

Separate focussed stores work better.
Music,colours,displays,themes,smell,lighting,staff ,customers.
Women prefer not to be near smelly men sharing their shopping spaces and changing rooms.
This why speciality stores compete well against department stores.

[macduffy]

I don't think that Farmers is a good model for HLG. The former is a lot more than clothing - toys, cosmetics, bedding, lighting, furniture, appliances ( do they still stock these? Still have the smaller end of the range ). Farmers' card has been a big "loyalty" factor in the past. I agree with percy, the negatives would outweigh the advantages.

[Beagle]

The new Wellington stories combined .....as is the Christchurch one

Be interesting if you could do a little reconnaissance trip and give some feedback on your sense of the combined store mate. Feel free to buy something while you're there to support us shareholders :D

You make some fair points Percy.

[winner69]

Be interesting if you could do a little reconnaissance trip and give some feedback on your sense of the combined store mate. Feel free to buy something while you're there to support us shareholders :D

You make some fair points Percy.

Pretty impressive the Lambton Quay one. One site but stores are essentially separate. Huge rent I reckon.

Topshop and Topman were next door. Both new stores opened about the same time. Certainly drove traffic to that part of town and I’m sure many punters had a look in both stores. Probably a bit quieter now.

Percy has a good point in saying better being close to the opposition than being a bit isolated.

[percy]

Pretty impressive the Lambton Quay one. One site but stores are essentially separate. Huge rent I reckon.

Topshop and Topman were next door. Both new stores opened about the same time. Certainly drove traffic to that part of town and I’m sure many punters had a look in both stores. Probably a bit quieter now.

Percy has a good point in saying better being close to the opposition than being a bit isolated.

Activity breeds activity.

[percy]

Not all plain sailing but with the history this company carries, I'm feeling well positioned for an extra large divvy. PS-Currently makes up 33% of my portfolio which I reckon is a pretty balsy holding.

No surprises here.
Just need to move the decimal point a few places and you have my holding.!!..lol.

[couta1]

Another thing I mentioned about 9-12 months ago Ex div Nov. Nice big payout Dec. then about 18 weeks later it goes ex div again for the April div. I am wanting to buy another 33,000 before ex div date, and will pay up to 3.40-3.50;). Hey see weed, those bollie bands starting to tighten, you had better start buying soon or you will be paying over 3.40 to get your extra 33000. PS-You can buy them all now for the bargin price of 3.33ish.

[see weed]

Hey see weed, those bollie bands starting to tighten, you had better start buying soon or you will be paying over 3.40 to get your extra 33000. PS-You can buy them all now for the bargin price of 3.33ish.
How long ago did I write that?

[couta1]

How long ago did I write that? October 1st

[see weed]

October 1st
I changed my mind and have sold all Hlg to buy ATM, and will buy them back again before div.

[winner69]

Hey Percy, with your love of retailing you’d enjoy reading ‘Shopping, Seduction & Mr Selfridge’
by Lindy Woodhead.

I really enjoyed it, an amazing story

Selfridges been going for over a hundred years and still going strong with double digit growth last year. Not too bad for a ‘department store’. Just shows you look after the customers and give them a good experience year after year good retailers can win.

[iceman]

Hey Percy, with your love of retailing you’d enjoy reading ‘Shopping, Seduction & Mr Selfridge’
by Lindy Woodhead.

I really enjoyed it, an amazing story

Selfridges been going for over a hundred years and still going strong with double digit growth last year. Not too bad for a ‘department store’. Just shows you look after the customers and give them a good experience year after year good retailers can win.

TV One (from memory) ran a series on Selfridge's beginnings a couple of years ago. A great watch.

[percy]

Hey Percy, with your love of retailing you’d enjoy reading ‘Shopping, Seduction & Mr Selfridge’
by Lindy Woodhead.

I really enjoyed it, an amazing story

Selfridges been going for over a hundred years and still going strong with double digit growth last year. Not too bad for a ‘department store’. Just shows you look after the customers and give them a good experience year after year good retailers can win.

Thanks W69.
Ordered from bookdepository $18.25.

[Snow Leopard]

Apparently the man* behind the Prime Minister bought his suit at Hallenstein [link to click (https://thespinoff.co.nz/society/06-11-2017/nothing-is-different-everything-is-different-clarke-gayford-on-his-first-days-as-first-gent/)]




*no, not Winston

[winner69]

Apparently the man* behind the Prime Minister bought his suit at Hallenstein [link to click (https://thespinoff.co.nz/society/06-11-2017/nothing-is-different-everything-is-different-clarke-gayford-on-his-first-days-as-first-gent/)]




*no, not Winston

Clarke said I didn’t even own a proper suit, although I have since remedied this – via Hallensteins


Suppose it is a proper suit

[percy]

Clarke said I didn’t even own a proper suit, although I have since remedied this – via Tt


Suppose it is a proper suit

I guess as shareholders we have to say it is...........lol.

ps.Tried a pair of modern cut pants my size a week ago at Kmart.Couldn't them get up past my knees.
Then had trouble getting out of them.

[stoploss]

I guess as shareholders we have to say it is...........lol.

ps.Tried a pair of modern cut pants my size a week ago at Kmart.Couldn't them get up past my knees.
Then had trouble getting out of them.

That's because new generation seldom wear pants up above knees .....

[Joshuatree]

And seldom wear them above the crack as well. Def not a good look on you guys or me imo:t_up:

[RupertBear]

[QUOTE=percy;691914

ps.Tried a pair of modern cut pants my size a week ago at Kmart.Couldn't them get up past my knees.
Then had trouble getting out of them.[/QUOTE]

Classic! :D

[Snow Leopard]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a5AiD4yTVs4

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[kiora]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a5AiD4yTVs4

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

Classic :eek2:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4xBrBvfYIaQ