HLG - Hallenstein Glasson

[Raz]

Hey Percy, with your love of retailing you’d enjoy reading ‘Shopping, Seduction & Mr Selfridge’
by Lindy Woodhead.

I really enjoyed it, an amazing story

Selfridges been going for over a hundred years and still going strong with double digit growth last year. Not too bad for a ‘department store’. Just shows you look after the customers and give them a good experience year after year good retailers can win.

Yeah it is doing ok, cannot under estimate its location for its success thou.

[RupertBear]

I guess as shareholders we have to say it is...........lol.

ps.Tried a pair of modern cut pants my size a week ago at Kmart.Couldn't them get up past my knees.
Then had trouble getting out of them.

Been having trouble sleeping the last few nights, not sure if its the ATM roller coaster keeping me awake or the images of Percy trying on a modern pair of pants that keeps flashing into my mind :D

[winner69]

Stats NZ Electronic Card Spend for October

Apparel sector down 4.5% on October last year

Things getting a bit slow in this sector? - even with Topshop sales and Clarke buying himself a suit.

Core retail up nearly 2%

[percy]

Been having trouble sleeping the last few nights, not sure if its the ATM roller coaster keeping me awake or the images of Percy trying on a modern pair of pants that keeps flashing into my mind :D

But wait there's more.
To get the jolly things off I had to take off my socks.!!.
Even funnier was trying on a pair of long shorts,or were they short longs ,at Hallensteins, and making the mistake of looking at myself in the mirror.I think it was one of those circus mirrors.Could not stop laughing.!
Sweet Dreams RupertBear..lol.

[RupertBear]

But wait there's more.
To get the jolly things off I had to take off my socks.!!.
Even funnier was trying on a pair of long shorts,or were they short longs ,at Hallensteins, and making the mistake of looking at myself in the mirror.I think it was one of those circus mirrors.Could not stop laughing.!
Sweet Dreams RupertBear..lol.

I will sleep with a smile on my face tonight Percy :)

[see weed]

Which is exactly why their future direction will be combined Glassons / Hallensteins stores saving potentially a significant part of their occupancy costs (2017 $27.4m) as they continue to ramp up online sales channels. I back these guys because they've been in business a long time and are very good operators.
Well Mr Beagle, time to give AIR and ATM a breather. It's that time of year again.6 days to go before ex div. A nice juicy 17c div. The good thing is, about 18 weeks later they give you another big juicy div. you better hurry, time is running out.:t_up: :t_up:

[Beagle]

Well Mr Beagle, time to give AIR and ATM a breather. It's that time of year again.6 days to go before ex div. A nice juicy 17c div. The good thing is, about 18 weeks later they give you another big juicy div. you better hurry, time is running out.:t_up: :t_up:

The hound is already extremely well positioned right beside his food bowl :D

[couta1]

The hound is already extremely well positioned right beside his food bowl :D I've had to go buy the Mother of all bowls in anticipation.

[Beagle]

I've had to go buy the Mother of all bowls in anticipation.

LOL as a good mate who's a dog owner taking into account what you just said you'll like this https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lSMObE1XVRU :)

[percy]

I've had to go buy the Mother of all bowls in anticipation.

OMG....
Another one of your "classic" posts.
You are safe here, as I currently hold a few.lol....[famous last words].

[Kay]

Already looking forward to the next dividend announcement...based largely on my fundamental analysis...it's been quite sunny for a while and looking like staying sunny for a while longer!

[winner69]

Well Mr Beagle, time to give AIR and ATM a breather. It's that time of year again.6 days to go before ex div. A nice juicy 17c div. The good thing is, about 18 weeks later they give you another big juicy div. you better hurry, time is running out.:t_up: :t_up:

I've already collected my dividend ...twice and more than enough to cover the impuation credits

Why hang around for the official one

[couta1]

I've already collected my dividend ...twice and more than enough to cover the impuation credits

Why hang around for the official one Nothing like a good honest divvy in your bank, and on your IR3 return.

[Kay]

I've already collected my dividend ...twice and more than enough to cover the impuation credits

Why hang around for the official one

You obviously didn't read my fundamental analysis

[winner69]

You obviously didn't read my fundamental analysis

Yes the weather remains brilliantly fine

Haven’t had any daytime rain here since Jacinda was anointed (and 1 wet night I think) .....so Hallensteins must be selling heaps of shorts and tees

[percy]

Yes the weather remains brilliantly fine

Haven’t had any daytime rain here since Jacinda was anointed (and 1 wet night I think) .....so Hallensteins must be selling heaps of shorts and tees

Drought conditions on The West Coast.No rain for 6 weeks.They are running out of water.
Maybe a case of "bring back Bill."

[Kay]

Yes the weather remains brilliantly fine

Haven’t had any daytime rain here since Jacinda was anointed (and 1 wet night I think) .....so Hallensteins must be selling heaps of shorts and tees

Well yeah why not?...certainly seems like it could help sales more so than the last few spring/summers in terms of weather....makes me think another 10% divi might come my way

As for the wet night you speak of...I have no appropriate comment!

[percy]

HLG agm 10 am Wednesday 13th December.
"The shareholders are invited to join the Directors for morning tea at 9.30 am prior to the meeting"..?
Really.?
And to think I thought of going.

[JeremyALD]

HLG agm 10 am Wednesday 13th December.
"The shareholders are invited to join the Directors for morning tea at 9.30 am prior to the meeting"..?
Really.?
And to think I thought of going.

LOL hope they have some cornflakes for my breakfast

[see weed]

I've already collected my dividend ...twice and more than enough to cover the impuation credits

Why hang around for the official one
Is that profit before or after tax and fees?;) Also like to say thank you to HLG for great divs:t_up:.

[Beagle]

Yes the weather remains brilliantly fine

Haven’t had any daytime rain here since Jacinda was anointed (and 1 wet night I think) .....so Hallensteins must be selling heaps of shorts and tees

Yes its even been fine and warm in Auckland. Summer feels like it arrived about 10 days ago which is nice for a change seeing as we didn't have one last year. I would imagine summer clothing has been and will be selling like hot cakes in the lead up to Christmas.

[see weed]

Yes its even been fine and warm in Auckland. Summer feels like it arrived about 10 days ago which is nice for a change seeing as we didn't have one last year. I would imagine summer clothing has been and will be selling like hot cakes in the lead up to Christmas.
That reminds me, better go down and check out HLG silver park for a pair of shorts. Might even buy another 10k shares before div. Over 9% yld. in Dec and another 18 weeks later, a no brainer, might make that 20k shares :t_up:.

[jg8512]

wow. v. nice update. interesting timing too - they were due to update at the AGM in ~2 weeks - so things must be good to have to issue this now. but with sales up 15% on an improved GM, they demonstrably are!

[Beagle]

LOL as a good mate who's a dog owner taking into account what you just said you'll like this https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lSMObE1XVRU :)

WOW what a stunning update. http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/HLG/311265/270930.pdf
15% sales increase on last year, last year itself a strong start to the year before that, and on improved gross margins that were stronger last year too !

Are those dog food bowls big enough Couta1 & seeweed ?

[couta1]

WOW what a stunning update. http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/HLG/311265/270930.pdf
15% sales increase on last year, last year itself a strong start to the year before that, and on improved gross margins that were stronger last year too !

Are those dog food bowls big enough Couta1 & seeweed ? Perfect timing before it goes Ex divvy, I'm feeling very well positioned in an XXOS kinda way.PS-I don't care about Amazon.

[percy]

Perfect timing before it goes Ex divvy, I'm feeling very well positioned in an XXOS kinda way.PS-I don't care about Amazon.

Well done.
An incredible trading update.

[Beagle]

Perfect timing before it goes Ex divvy, I'm feeling very well positioned in an XXOS kinda way.PS-I don't care about Amazon.

Yes mate as we discussed last night, and as I have been saying on here for ages, the vast majority of shoppers want to see and try on the clothes themselves for reasons of what I call the four F's (fit, fabric, feel & fashion). Despite acquiring a number of apparel retailers in the U.S. I read recently that Amazon only has 6% of the apparel market there.

[Everwood]

Yes mate as we discussed last night, and as I have been saying on here for ages, the vast majority of shoppers want to see and try on the clothes themselves for reasons of what I call the four F's (fit, fabric, feel & fashion). Despite acquiring a number of apparel retailers in the U.S. I read recently that Amazon only has 6% of the apparel market there.

I agree! I have bought clothes online before, but I still prefer try stuff on. Also, it gives me a better idea I how it looks and feels against my skin.

[Joshuatree]

An increasingly important and faster growing segment of their business.
E-Commerce
Online sales continue to grow at a significantly greater rate than bricks and mortar stores, as a result of the company’s commitment to build and invest in digital. For the last financial year online sales grew 44% which now represents over 9% of Group turnover. We will continue to invest in technology and resources in this area to ensure that growth continues in this strategic area of the business.

[Beagle]

I had a very quick skim read of the HLG annual report released today online, see NZX release here https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/268410.pdf . Easy report to read and not just the numbers that look pretty if you know what I mean :D, (of course the resident hound is just as handsome as the blokes in there lol), well run business, great stock turn, sales growing strongly in Australia, very slick and long standing retail operators who are committed to providing a positive shopping experience. Trades on a PE of just 11 with very positive sales growth and a gross dividend yield of (31.5 / 328) / 0.72 = 13.3% and trades cum a 17 cent fully imputed dividend due in December.
M sized position and happy holder.

Posted 26 October. What's now crystal clear is that their new format euro style stores are really resonating well with customers. To grow sales at this phenomenal rate, (unprecedented in as many years as I have followed HLG) with very average weather for the majority of the time since balance date and the uncertainty of an election is pretty incredible. Disc: Enlarged my holding this morning, (will need a new XXL dog food bowl). Now that a real summer has the makings of coming to pass I expect their very strong sales momentum to continue.

Is this the "purrfect" dividend hounds stock, you get to eat you cake and your cat. My revised valuation $4.

[JeremyALD]

That's a bloody good update in this challenging retail environment. I have to say they've been on form this year and their sales (both online and in store) have been very well marketed

[couta1]

Well done.
An incredible trading update. Thanks Percy, with 33% of my portfolio total in this stock, one has to have a fair bit of confidence in all aspects of the way things are run and the management, I do.

[Beagle]

Extract from annual report under future outlook page 7.
For the first seven weeks of the year sales growth has been +5.48% on last year.
Now for the first seventeen weeks which includes the above first seven week period they're ahead +15% on last year.
Sales last year averaged $4.6m per week. For the sake of this calculation to keep things as simple as possible lets assume sales are constant throughout the year. First 7 weeks sales are 4.6m +5.48% = 4.867m per week = $34.07m.
For sales to be now up for the first 17 weeks by 15% sales must have been 4.6m x 1.15 x 17 = $89.93m. Deduct the first seven weeks of $34.07m gives sales of $55.86m in the latest ten week period of $5.586m per week a 21.43% increase on the same ten week period last year. ($5.586m / $4.6m = 1.2143)
Acknowledge its not that simple as sales are not constant throughout the year but nonetheless the most recent 10 week trading period shows HLG is really getting some great traction with sales growth. Implications going forward for even higher dividends or ability to reinvest even more quickly in the roll out of their new euro style stores driving even more sales growth....? Hmmmm.

[see weed]

Extract from annual report under future outlook page 7.
For the first seven weeks of the year sales growth has been +5.48% on last year.
Now for the first seventeen weeks which includes the above first seven week period they're ahead +15% on last year.
Sales last year averaged $4.6m per week. For the sake of this calculation to keep things as simple as possible lets assume sales are constant throughout the year. First 7 weeks sales are 4.6m +5.48% = 4.867m per week = $34.07m.
For sales to be now up for the first 17 weeks by 15% sales must have been 4.6m x 1.15 x 17 = $89.93m. Deduct the first seven weeks of $34.07m gives sales of $55.86m in the latest ten week period of $5.586m per week a 21.43% increase on the same ten week period last year. ($5.586m / $4.6m = 1.2143)
Acknowledge its not that simple as sales are not constant throughout the year but nonetheless the most recent 10 week trading period shows HLG is really getting some great traction with sales growth. Implications going forward for even higher dividends or ability to reinvest even more quickly in the roll out of their new euro style stores driving even more sales growth....? Hmmmm.
Very good calcs. Sounds good to me. Got a bit greedy this morning and dropped my buy order from 3.51 to 3.44 one minute before open and missed out on 3.45 open, then ended up buying at 3.51 later:). Might get another sp rise on AGM day 13/12/17 plus more food for the bowl:t_up:.

[winner69]

Extract from annual report under future outlook page 7.
For the first seven weeks of the year sales growth has been +5.48% on last year.
Now for the first seventeen weeks which includes the above first seven week period they're ahead +15% on last year.
Sales last year averaged $4.6m per week. For the sake of this calculation to keep things as simple as possible lets assume sales are constant throughout the year. First 7 weeks sales are 4.6m +5.48% = 4.867m per week = $34.07m.
For sales to be now up for the first 17 weeks by 15% sales must have been 4.6m x 1.15 x 17 = $89.93m. Deduct the first seven weeks of $34.07m gives sales of $55.86m in the latest ten week period of $5.586m per week a 21.43% increase on the same ten week period last year. ($5.586m / $4.6m = 1.2143)
Acknowledge its not that simple as sales are not constant throughout the year but nonetheless the most recent 10 week trading period shows HLG is really getting some great traction with sales growth. Implications going forward for even higher dividends or ability to reinvest even more quickly in the roll out of their new euro style stores driving even more sales growth....? Hmmmm.

I put it down to the Jacinda effect and don’t forget her partner’s impact as well.

Percy says Labour good for retail sales. The working man and women going to get more money to spend always makes them happy and HLG shops are just right for them

Glassons probably doing well selling Jacinda type work outfits for the girls.

[suse]

I bought HLG last year at about this time, just before dividend, at about the current price. Watched the share price fall over the year, read a lot on here and in other places about declining sales in retail and a few months ago I decided to ditch them for a small loss and use the money to buy ATM instead. I am happy with that decision but I still like the look of the dividends HLG presents.

[Beagle]

Very good calcs. Sounds good to me. Got a bit greedy this morning and dropped my buy order from 3.51 to 3.44 one minute before open and missed out on 3.45 open, then ended up buying at 3.51 later:). Might get another sp rise on AGM day 13/12/17 plus more food for the bowl:t_up:.

Bigger bowl required, this one looks good :) https://www.bing.com/images/search?view=detailV2&ccid=rPhnWKhf&id=BFCCAA682F7C29AF99AA8A85D842EFDE69AB6959&thid=OIP.rPhnWKhfErSMXOFq-7odvAEkDV&q=biggest+dog+food+bowl+in+the+world&simid=608016085121697688&selectedIndex=1&ajaxhist=0

[Kay]

Surprised it's only gained 7c so far...offering 17c cashback in the next few days and all but guaranteeing a 10% dividend for the next round...

I guess companies who make money and return it to their investors are going out of fashion!

[Beagle]

10% net dividend next time round = 13.9% gross. I agree and am also surprised the shares haven't shown more gusto considering the outstanding market update.
You would think this sales result does wonders to underwrite the ability of this company to pay around 33 cps next year and in a ultra low interest rate environment people would love a ~ 14% gross dividend yield. Maybe some investors need to see an updated recommendation written on a brokers report before acting...opportunity knocks for those that can think for themselves before analysts release upgrades ?

[couta1]

If it touches $3.45 or below, before it goes Ex, im buying more.

[percy]

If it touches $3.45 or below, before it goes Ex, im buying more.

Craigs used to be big cheer leaders for HLG,however they no longer cover it.
I am sure if they still covered it, they would be putting their clients into it after todays announcement.
That leaves the field wide open for you Couta1......lol.

[Kay]

Reminds me of AIR about a year ago...I bought in around the 10% yield mark...felt very cheap at the time (unfortunately sold a little too early midway through the following sp excitement)

Bought a few more hlg today though...happy to let it fester for a good while

[Kay]

Fester in the scotch whisky sense...rather than the bowl of fruit sense!

[Beagle]

Fester in the scotch whisky sense...rather than the bowl of fruit sense!

LOL thanks for clarifying that :) Yes just like with AIR you know when there's a 10% net yield on offer from a high quality well managed company with a long track record the dividend hounds will be in like a pack of hungry wolves...too tasty to resist and usually does not last as the market rerates the stocks with fruit that's hanging too low.
My rating BBB+ (Beagle busy buying)

[Kay]

Hopefully they can find enough fruit in the aussie orchards to keep the market distracted

[see weed]

Bigger bowl required, this one looks good :) https://www.bing.com/images/search?view=detailV2&ccid=rPhnWKhf&id=BFCCAA682F7C29AF99AA8A85D842EFDE69AB6959&thid=OIP.rPhnWKhfErSMXOFq-7odvAEkDV&q=biggest+dog+food+bowl+in+the+world&simid=608016085121697688&selectedIndex=1&ajaxhist=0
Good photos, never ends. Like the fat cats.

[couta1]

Hopefully they can find enough fruit in the aussie orchards to keep the market distracted Looks like the punters are slowly digesting the update, so perhaps not.

[see weed]

If it touches $3.45 or below, before it goes Ex, im buying more.
If it touches $3.48 or above before ex div I'm buying more:t_up:.

[see weed]

Just went to buy more at 3.52, somebody got in first. Was that you Beagle?;). Might buy some more on close before all those Aussies do:).

[Beagle]

I think after that update some of you guys are being a bit optimistic hoping to get any more under $3.50...but one supposes you never know... but I wouldn't rule out other hounds chasing them too :D

P.S. Mate I sprung out of the starters gate like a startled greyhound this morning, (after reading that market update) and got a few at the open $3.45 and a few more later in the high 340's. Couldn't believe it didn't immediately gap up to over $3.50 really... right from the get go today.

[winner69]

I think after that update some of you guys are being a bit optimistic hoping to get any more under $3.50...but one supposes you never know... but I wouldn't rule out other hounds chasing them too :D

P.S. Mate I sprung out of the starters gate like a startled greyhound this morning, (after reading that market update) and got a few at the open $3.45 and a few more later in the high 340's. Couldn't believe it didn't immediately gap up to over $3.50 really... right from the get go today.

Jeez - 15% sales increase and higher margins .....throw in a few extra expenses over f17 (not up 15% of course) and you are looking at an EPS of 40 cents in F18 (npat of $25m)

Yes mr beagle - share price won’t be below 350 until the next recession hits and there’s no sign of one of those for a while

a year ago Percy and myself were touting this 40 cents ....we knew what we were talking about eh

[RupertBear]

And Craigs have them as a SELL :scared: seriously! :ohmy:

[JeremyALD]

And Craigs have them as a SELL :scared: seriously! :ohmy:

For me this is one of the strongest announcements of the year across the NZX. Apparel is a hugely challenged industry with stores struggling for profitability. Most are seeing declining revenue and or margins, just take a look at Myer. It also seems Barker's is struggling too. The industry has more online players and retail players than ever before.

In this market Hallensteins have grown sales by 15% this year, and remember this is against last year's very strong first half year.

I'm really impressed with their approach and how they focus on digital channels and store based experience. Seriously good work.

[winner69]

For me this is one of the strongest announcements of the year across the NZX. Apparel is a hugely challenged industry with stores struggling for profitability. Most are seeing declining revenue and or margins, just take a look at Myer. It also seems Barker's is struggling too. The industry has more online players and retail players than ever before.

In this market Hallensteins have grown sales by 15% this year, and remember this is against last year's very strong first half year.

I'm really impressed with their approach and how they focus on digital channels and store based experience. Seriously good work.

Nothing new ....HLG have been doing ‘seriously good work’ for decades ....or more than a century

[Beagle]

For me this is one of the strongest announcements of the year across the NZX. Apparel is a hugely challenged industry with stores struggling for profitability. Most are seeing declining revenue and or margins, just take a look at Myer. It also seems Barker's is struggling too. The industry has more online players and retail players than ever before.

In this market Hallensteins have grown sales by 15% this year, and remember this is against last year's very strong first half year.

I'm really impressed with their approach and how they focus on digital channels and store based experience. Seriously good work.

I couldn't agree more !

[minimoke]

To those with teh long memories - what happened in 2013 when HLG came off its highs of $5.90.

Seems to me that while the dividend yield is attractive you risk loosing 50% off share value as it swings up and down during the year. At $3.56 it is still off its 12 month high of $3.65

[JeremyALD]

To those with teh long memories - what happened in 2013 when HLG came off its highs of $5.90.

Seems to me that while the dividend yield is attractive you risk loosing 50% off share value as it swings up and down during the year. At $3.56 it is still off its 12 month high of $3.65

Hallensteins has paid a 30c fully imputed dividend or close to it for many years now so the chances of this swinging that much is pretty low at these levels. Unless something really bad happens it won't drop below $2.60 which is what it hit after its worst year in 2015 (where they still paid out a very strong dividend). The current market price factors in very little growth (which Hallensteins are currently achieving) so if they can continue to grow the business you'll hopefully again see a 4 on the end of the SP.

I think a bit reason the SP hasn't taken off is the industry dynamics and competition. People are mindful that although Hallensteins are performing the apparel industry is very tough in New Zealand and particularly AU.

[Beagle]

Hallensteins has paid a 30c fully imputed dividend or close to it for many years now so the chances of this swinging that much is pretty low at these levels. Unless something really bad happens it won't drop below $2.60 which is what it hit after its worst year in 2015 (where they still paid out a very strong dividend). The current market price factors in very little growth (which Hallensteins are currently achieving) so if they can continue to grow the business you'll hopefully again see a 4 on the end of the SP.

I think a bit reason the SP hasn't taken off is the industry dynamics and competition. People are mindful that although Hallensteins are performing the apparel industry is very tough in New Zealand and particularly AU.

Agree and one simply needs to look at the recent sales decline in the Warehouse which includes a lot of apparel to put HLG's stunning market update into its proper perspective.
If one needs further perspective I think most would agree that Rod Duke's extremely successful Briscoe group is a useful benchmark (perhaps the gold standard against which other retailers must be measured) and it should be noted that they grew their most recent quarterly sales by just under 2.5%. https://www.nzx.com/announcements/309676

I think its clear that last year's doubling of capex to roll out the update of lots more stores to the modern euro format is, and will be paying for the foreseeable future, big dividends. The risk here for the dividend hounds to consider is if they dividend strip this puppy and sell after it goes ex divvy they'll probably miss out on some very good growth going forward.

[minimoke]

The risk here for the dividend hounds to consider is if they dividend strip this puppy and sell after it goes ex divvy they'll probably miss out on some very good growth going forward.
That then seems to be the logical time to buy. Forego this divi and pick up at reduced value and wait for next divi.

[Beagle]

That then seems to be the logical time to buy. Forego this divi and pick up at reduced value and wait for next divi.

Its pretty disappointing that we now have only one professional analyst covering HLG down from 3 a few months ago. http://www.4-traders.com/HALLENSTEIN-GLASSONS-HOLD-6495564/consensus/ Worth noting that when 3 were covering it the average valuation was $3.45 and now just one analyst valuing HLG at $3.50 which hasn't been updated for this weeks stunning market update.

My sense is taking into account this weeks news the stock is worth at the very least $3.50 ex divvy or $3.67 cum divvy and I have bene buying on that basis. As stated earlier this week I see fair value at around $4 and note that the last time HLG were looking so good to generate the sort of indicative profits that are implied by this latest news the shares were $5.90 so I don't think $4 is fanciful at all given that the apparel market has been weak overall, Briscoe's the gold standard for retail is only up 2.5% and its become clear HLG's refurbished stores have very strong appeal to consumers. They can continue to roll out that new store format with or without Di Humphries. It doesn't matter whether you buy before or after the dividend as long as you take into account the value of it.

[winner69]

...

My sense is taking into account this weeks news the stock is worth at the very least $3.50 ex divvy or $3.67 cum divvy and I have bene buying on that basis. As stated earlier this week I see fair value at around $4 and note that the last time HLG were looking so good to generate the sort of indicative profits that are implied by this latest news the shares were $5.90 so I don't think $4 is fanciful

Dead right mate

Just to show what you mean a nice chart below. The F18 EPS is 36 cents (NPAT of about $21m/$22m) which is a lot lower than my rave the other day which obviously was ignored but I still believe possible

[Beagle]

Dead right mate

Just to show what you mean a nice chart below. The F18 EPS is 18 cents (NPAT of about $21m/$22m) which is a lot lower than my rave the other day which obviously was ignored but I still believe possible

Hmmm...that is a very very interesting chart...many thanks indeed mate. They say a picture says a thousand words and that chart covering EPS and SP data for the last twelve years provides huge scope for encouragement regarding capital gains going forward. The super high fully imputed dividend yield that many people are buying for could just be the icing on the cake and capital gain is where the real rewards lie ! $4 ex divvy looks very conservative doesn't it !

[winner69]

Hmmm...that is a very very interesting chart...many thanks indeed mate. They say a picture says a thousand words and that chart covering EPS and SP data for the last twelve years provides huge scope for encouragement regarding capital gains going forward. The super high fully imputed dividend yield that many people are buying for could just be the icing on the cake and capital gain is where the real rewards lie ! $4 ex divvy looks very conservative doesn't it !

Sure does

As you expect the share price has followed eps trends for many years. That chart shows that

Average PE over the timeframe on the chart has been about 13 ....so just getting back to that average is a share price well over $4,50 ....and if the market gets really excited about a 40 cent dividend wow what that do to the share price

[couta1]

With the AGM only a few days after the Ex date, there is no way I would sell after stripping the divvy, confirmation of sales moving north will see the SP continue to move in that direction also. Just need a couple more analysts to jump on the bandwagon and whip up a bit more frenzy with some nice new numbers ,to ice the cake.

[see weed]

Went to The Warehouse Sylvia Park on Saturday night to buy some shorts. After half hour walked out with nothing. No service, cr..p choice of pants etc. Went to Hallensteins Sylvia Park on opening about 9.05am Sunday Morning. Good service as soon as you walk into shop, nice young lady comes over to help serve you, supplying me with different sizes and sorts of pants, even coming to the changing rooms to give me a bigger size of a certain brand. Most things on special around $29.99c. Very happy with my purchase and the service. The shop seemed a lot busier as l was leaving with more and more customers arriving. On the figures you have mentioned above, I wouldn't be surprised there were not many sellers on ex div day. One reason being the AGM is 5 days later with more good positive news coming:t_up: I will not be selling on ex div day, in fact I will be supporting the sp going into AGM day:).

[Baa_Baa]

From the coal face, mum and daughter went to HLG today, loved the store but not the prices. Bought the entire daughters summer wardrobe from Mirrou for a small fraction of the price, like massive discounts on HLG. They raved about the selections and service, but as 'frank the bank' I liked their choice for the extreme discounts. Retail sure is competitive, I hadn't even heard of Mirrou until today. Happy mum and daughter, happy life.

[couta1]

From the coal face, mum and daughter went to HLG today, loved the store but not the prices. Bought the entire daughters summer wardrobe from Mirrou for a small fraction of the price, like massive discounts on HLG. They raved about the selections and service, but as 'frank the bank' I liked their choice for the extreme discounts. Retail sure is competitive, I hadn't even heard of Mirrou until today. Happy mum and daughter, happy life. Mirrou are described as a Mature woman's brand for those aged 35-45 years old, quite a narrow range and not too much for HLG to worry about, especially since they are an Aussie company.:cool:

[Beagle]

I for one could not care less about people's anecdotal stories from other retailers, we've heard it all before many many times... top shop this and new xyz store that. HLG sales growth is exceptional especially in the prevailing generally soft apparel market and especially as current stat's are compared against a first half last year that was growing strongly compared to the same period before that.

[percy]

From the coal face, mum and daughter went to HLG today, loved the store but not the prices. Bought the entire daughters summer wardrobe from Mirrou for a small fraction of the price, like massive discounts on HLG. They raved about the selections and service, but as 'frank the bank' I liked their choice for the extreme discounts. Retail sure is competitive, I hadn't even heard of Mirrou until today. Happy mum and daughter, happy life.

Discount and die.
Unless you have cheap rent such as KMart,WHS or Farmers,you will not survive.

[JeremyALD]

Hallensteins is already cheap as chips too. If you think a $10 tee and $30 jeans are expensive I really do worry for the poor children making these!!

[Beagle]

Hallensteins is already cheap as chips too. If you think a $10 tee and $30 jeans are expensive I really do worry for the poor children making these!!

In more ways than one mate. I have recalculated my expectations of profit and dividend in the year ahead and I see a minimum of $21m and 35 cps. No reason why they won't pay out that full 35 cps as dividends as forecast capex this year is less than depreciation.
35 cps as a function of the theoretical ex price $3.60 - 0.17 = $3.43 = 10.2% net or 14.2% gross yield ! With that remarkable yield and the very real prospect of SP gains it is any wonder Timothy Glasson is happy to own 20% of the company and the well respected Hickman's of Ryman fame are also large shareholders.

[winner69]

Ben Graham (or was it that guy Lynch) used charts showing the share price and what the share price would be at a certain PE. Quite cool really. 'Undervalued' when below the dotted line

Here's one for HLG using a PE of 13 (seems a good fit on a historical basis). The forecast line is based on a NPAT of $22m

Jeez more than a buck capital gain here ....more if it overshoots ...and you collect decent divies along the way. Hit 6 bucks a few years ago

Cool eh

[see weed]

I've already collected my dividend ...twice and more than enough to cover the impuation credits

Why hang around for the official one
Posted on 29/11/17....Winner, are you still in for the div? Mine are up 15k in last 3 weeks:t_up:. Guna get some more today:cool:.

[Beagle]

Ben Graham (or was it that guy Lynch) used charts showing the share price and what the share price would be at a certain PE. Quite cool really. 'Undervalued' when below the dotted line

Here's one for HLG using a PE of 13 (seems a good fit on a historical basis). The forecast line is based on a NPAT of $22m

Jeez more than a buck capital gain here ....more if it overshoots ...and you collect decent divies along the way. Hit 6 bucks a few years ago

Cool eh

PE of 13 looks like a good fit but might be a bit cheap seeing as this is the second year in a row they're growing sales nicely and momentum on sales growth is building very strongly. $22m after tax on 59.65m shares gives = 36.89 cps. Maybe a PE of 16-17 isn't out of order given their strong sales growth which does give potential upside into the $6 range !

[winner69]

PE of 13 looks like a good fit but might be a bit cheap seeing as this is the second year in a row they're growing sales nicely and momentum on sales growth is building very strongly. $22m after tax on 59.65m shares gives = 36.89 cps. Maybe a PE of 16-17 isn't out of order given their strong sales growth which does give potential upside into the $6 range !

Now you are getting a bit carried away ....even though $22m npat would be about 25% up on this year.

HLG a bit cyclical though eh ....but definitely on the up part of the cycle at the monent

While the Jacinda effect might be behind the strong sales growth can’t overlook that Jacinda’s finance man says we could have a recession

[Beagle]

Maybe not carried away mate. They appear to be getting real traction with their sales and going off comments in the annual report this is partly because of expansion across the Tasman. Big market over there for further expansion...
Little known fact - Did you know that every year for the last five years they have paid out more in dividends than EPS ?
They are able to do this because capex even with refurbishing the stores to the fancy new euro style is less than depreciation.
Heck we could get as much as the 40 cents per share in dividends next year you were hinting at on the weekend ! I'm going to need a MUCH bigger dog food bowl :)

[winner69]

Maybe not carried away mate. They appear to be getting real traction with their sales and going off comments in the annual report this is partly because of expansion across the Tasman. Big market over there for further expansion...
Little known fact - Did you know that every year for the last five years they have paid out more in dividends than EPS ?
They are able to do this because capex even with refurbishing the stores to the fancy new euro style is less than depreciation.
Heck we could get as much as the 40 cents per share in dividends next year you were hinting at on the weekend ! I'm going to need a MUCH bigger dog food bowl :)

Red bit is correct but another little know fact is that in 4 of the last 5 years (and 5 out of the last 7) they have paid out more in divies than free cash flow (operating less capex)

To maintain the divies they have been raiding the honey pot which is gradually diminishing ....had $35m in it in 2010 and now only $12m odd

At least they don't borrow to pay divies (like some do)

[Beagle]

Page 7 annual report,
historical capex is ~ $6m. Last year depreciation which is of course a non cash item was $7.3m.

We anticipate capital expenditure will return to historical level's in the new financial year.

This would suggest $1.3m extra available to be distributed to shareholders in the years ahead or about 2.2 cents per share.

[minimoke]

I think after that update some of you guys are being a bit optimistic hoping to get any more under $3.50...but one supposes you never know... but I wouldn't rule out other hounds chasing them too :D

P.S. Mate I sprung out of the starters gate like a startled greyhound this morning, (after reading that market update) and got a few at the open $3.45 and a few more later in the high 340's. Couldn't believe it didn't immediately gap up to over $3.50 really... right from the get go today.I've stuck a cheeky bid in. Wonder if I"ll be a proud owner by the end of the week

[Raz]

Surprised how this really was a simple play like last year...

[Beagle]

Last chance to collect this superb fully imputed dividend of 17 cps today, shares trade ex div tomorrow. I'm expecting dividends to increase next year in line with how sales are growing so strongly at 15%. Gross yield looking forward to 2018 looks very promising 3.52-.0.17 = 3.35 theoretical ex div price. (35 / 335) / 0.72 = 14.5% gross forecast
yield ! Probably the best dividend yield on the NZX and a ~ 140 year history of trading by this well managed company.

[percy]

Some times I find my values of a share are a lot different from the market's.Always happy to back myself,[until proven wrong].
HLG is now one.After the incredible announcement of the huge increase in sales, AND margins I would have expected the sp to rise quickly to over $3.80,and be nearer $4.00.

[couta1]

Okay, which one of you guys just put a bid on to buy 425000 shares at $3.55, spoiled my accumulation party.

[Beagle]

Some times I find my values of a share are a lot different from the market's.Always happy to back myself,[until proven wrong].
HLG is now one.After the incredible announcement of the huge increase in sales, AND margins I would have expected the sp to rise quickly to over $3.80,and be nearer $4.00.

I couldn't agree more.

[see weed]

Okay, which one of you guys just put a bid on to buy 425000 shares at $3.55, spoiled my accumulation party.
Not me, my bowls already full.:cool:

[BlackPeter]

Okay, which one of you guys just put a bid on to buy 425000 shares at $3.55, spoiled my accumulation party.

Just bid a bit more ;)

Discl: was not me ... happy with my modest holding;

[minimoke]

Not me either - spoilt my cheeky bid as well.

[percy]

Just bid a bit more ;)

Discl: was not me ... happy with my modest holding;

For goodness sake,don't encourage him.!!!!...lol.

[couta1]

For goodness sake,don't encourage him.!!!!...lol. Lol, still have 10k to buy at $3.50 (Only got 3k at that price before the party was spoilt) Great to see the vote of confidence in that big bid though, wonder who it is/ they are? Probably unable to buy that many off market with a tightly held top 20 register and with the good news of late.

[Beagle]

Okay Okay I will fess up...it's me. I raided the kids trust fund :D

[JeremyALD]

I've faulted and bought more at 3.56.

Now my largest holding which I swore I'd never do with a retail stock :scared:

[couta1]

I've faulted and bought more at 3.56.

Now my largest holding which I swore I'd never do with a retail stock :scared: I know the feeling, having previously held KMD and WHS (Lost money on both) I was pretty gun shy, just shows we are open to opportunity aye.

[see weed]

Okay, which one of you guys just put a bid on to buy 425000 shares at $3.55, spoiled my accumulation party.
Now gone. Maybe the buyer wanted to sell some and was stabilising the price while selling.

[couta1]

Now gone. Maybe the buyer wanted to sell some and was stabilising the price while selling. He still bought over 100k shares at $3.55, you can't buy and sell at the same time, at the same price, not legal as it's outright market manipulation.

[JeremyALD]

I know the feeling, having previously held KMD and WHS (Lost money on both) I was pretty gun shy, just shows we are open to opportunity aye.

Yeah I figure 30cps of dividends are coming so pretty well positioned even at current price.

[percy]

Retail is a bit like Rugby,when you are going forward you don't drop passes.
HLG appear to have the clothes their markets want,whether by having nice refurbished stores,or the strong internet sales platform.
Shareholders are "well positioned,"...lol

[see weed]

ASB Securities is broken down again:t_down:.

[winner69]

Jeremy mentioned that H1 this year sales growth of 15% is amazing as it being compared against a strong H1 last year which was 9% up on pcp.

Don't know if Jeremy said amazing but it is pretty amazing really when consumer confidence has been down a bit and overall apparel sector sales in NZ have been pretty week and Australia retail not going that great either

FY growth of 15% takes sales to $275m for the year. Margins are up and maybe GM will be 60% or $165m. Expenses were $116m last year and even if we use $130m for this year NPAT before tax is $35m so NPAT is about $25m. You would hope that expenses wouldn't rise by $14m as a fair chunk of them are pretty well fixed - shareholders expect improved productivity eh?

So at $25m NPAT or EPS of 42 cents even percy's gut feel that the share price should be $4 seems really conservative

Even if I'm only half right aren't we really looking at a share price over 5 bucks next year

What can go wrong .....practically risk free with the Jacinda effect in play.

Jacinda had a different type of outfit on yesterday - rekon plenty of women out buying similar skirts and tops this week

[Beagle]

Jeremy mentioned that H1 this year sales growth of 15% is amazing as it being compared against a strong H1 last year which was 9% up on pcp.

Don't know if Jeremy said amazing but it is pretty amazing really when consumer confidence has been down a bit and overall apparel sector sales in NZ have been pretty week and Australia retail not going that great either

FY growth of 15% takes sales to $275m for the year. Margins are up and maybe GM will be 60% or $165m. Expenses were $116m last year and even if we use $130m for this year NPAT before tax is $35m so NPAT is about $25m. You would hope that expenses wouldn't rise by $14m as a fair chunk of them are pretty well fixed - shareholders expect improved productivity eh?

So at $25m NPAT or EPS of 42 cents even percy's gut feel that the share price should be $4 seems really conservative

Even if I'm only half right aren't we really looking at a share price over 5 bucks next year

What can go wrong .....practically risk free with the Jacinda effect in play.

Jacinda had a different type of outfit on yesterday - rekon plenty of women out buying similar skirts and tops this week

Agree 100%. Best free lunch I have seen on the NZX this year. Sales increasing at SIX times the rate of growth of the benchmark gold standard that is Rod Duke's Briscoes. HLG the Christmas gift you give yourself that's a real problem solver when it comes to funding all other Christmas and holiday costs :)

[see weed]

I've faulted and bought more at 3.56.

Now my largest holding which I swore I'd never do with a retail stock :scared:
Same here, got another 10k on close, just can't help myself. Looking forward to a biggish div:D. Now all we have to do is sit tight until after Christmas and new year and January holidays, then about 12 weeks after that, another biggish div, which is about 16 weeks from now:t_up:

[couta1]

Same here, got another 10k on close, just can't help myself. Looking forward to a biggish div:D. Now all we have to do is sit tight until after Christmas and new year and January holidays, then about 12 weeks after that, another biggish div, which is about 16 weeks from now:t_up: Good on you, love your enthusiasm, nice close at $3.57, couple of weeks ago I thought $3.40 would be the high before the Ex date. Have enough of these at around 35% of portfolio total, one of 3 stocks im currently holding, I kinda like the sound of a third time's three, nice and simple.

[winner69]

Had somebody say 15% growth is a bit optimistic for the whole year

OK let's run with 7.5% --- in retail still pretty amazing

Only problem with that assumption is that H2 sales will be less or about the same as H2 last year

With the current momentum that this well managed company has is that really likely?

Yes 5 bucks on the card next year I reckon

[Joshuatree]

I havnt bought a single t-shirt from hallensteins this summer, nothing appealing for me, pretty bland offerings so far. So my t-shirt gauge says be careful.

[couta1]

I havnt bought a single t-shirt from hallensteins this summer, nothing appealing for me, pretty bland offerings so far. So my t-shirt gauge says be careful. Your gauge is broken.

[Beagle]

Had somebody say 15% growth is a bit optimistic for the whole year

OK let's run with 7.5% --- in retail still pretty amazing

Only problem with that assumption is that H2 sales will be less or about the same as H2 last year

With the current momentum that this well managed company has is that really likely?

Yes 5 bucks on the card next year I reckon

They need a new gauge too and a new window. A while back I posted an analysis of first seven weeks and next ten weeks sales and the most recent ten weeks sales are up a whopping 22% so momentum is actually building ! In addition anyone who's actually not locked up inside in solitary confinement in a prison might have noticed that we're actually having the makings of a good summer this year for the first time in about 7 years, (I know we had a good one seven years ago because I repainted my kennel that summer and we haven't had as good a one since). No need to discount end of season stock at the end of this summer, stock will probably sell out no problem and they might have trouble getting enough stock to sell !

Momentum is clearly building across the Tasman, Percy are you going to the annual meeting to ask about Australian growth ?

[percy]

I only do 4pm start meetings,preferably on a Friday afternoon..!!!!!!..lol.
9.30am cup of tea and meet the directors,before the 10am meeting starts??? Not me .
If they are that miserable,they will not giveaway any gems.
Think I will just read the agm presentation on line.Can't see them straying from that.
See how I go after Craigs do on Monday,10am start at Chateau on the Park;,AIA,MEL and OCA presenting, and "A complimentary light lunch will be provided."

[Baa_Baa]

No need to discount end of season stock at the end of this summer, stock will probably sell out no problem and they might have trouble getting enough stock to sell !

Gee Roger why would you say that, is it just a ramp hoping no one does any research? A simple check would show that the discounts never stop and in retail the start of a season is when the sales for the current season are in full swing. Especially leading into the festive period. https://www.glassons.com (check the front page first and then click on 'Sales') Luckily everything they sell has such outrageous markups that the sales prices are still making good profits.

[percy]

Gee Roger why would you say that, is it just a ramp hoping no one does any research? A simple check would show that the discounts never stop and in retail the start of a season is when the sales for the current season are in full swing. Especially leading into the festive period. https://www.glassons.com (check the front page first and then click on 'Sales') Luckily everything they sell has such outrageous markups that the sales prices are still making good profits.

As any old retailer will tell you, there's a big difference between start of the season sales, and getting rid of end of season stock.
One is profitable,the other is not.

[Joshuatree]

Your gauge is broken.

Very accurate for me but im big on t-shirts and i know what i like.Have bought many over the years from hallensteins, nothing so far this summer. Im hopeful they will get some cool designs in, i check weekly, you have to as they cleverly introduce new stuff continuously.

[couta1]

Gee Roger why would you say that, is it just a ramp hoping no one does any research? A simple check would show that the discounts never stop and in retail the start of a season is when the sales for the current season are in full swing. Especially leading into the festive period. https://www.glassons.com (check the front page first and then click on 'Sales') Luckily everything they sell has such outrageous markups that the sales prices are still making good profits. Just like Briscoes aye, always a sale, but as long as punters think they are getting a bargin, that's all that matters. PS- Had a look at that front page you mentioned and had a wee blush..

[Joshuatree]

Its a no brainer, the smaller the outfit the more they charge.

[percy]

Very accurate for me but im big on t-shirts and i know what i like.Have bought many over the years from hallensteins, nothing so far this summer. Im hopeful they will get some cool designs in, i check weekly, you have to as they cleverly introduce new stuff continuously.

JT.
Get your daughter to buy your T-shirts for you.
That way both of you will be happy.
[well she will no longer be embarrassed]...lol.

[Jantar]

... https://www.glassons.com (check the front page first .... I wouldn't object to any of those models taking 30 - 60% off. :p

[Joshuatree]

JT.
Get your daughter to buy your T-shirts for you.
That way both of you will be happy.
[well she will no longer be embarrassed]...lol.

Know what you mean percy;). They've had some very creative arty panel prints the last few years but little so far this year.I'll keep my eye out for a tiedyed bright pinkish one for you. Could be handy for your autonomous car (when they come out) to be able to find you.:)

[percy]

[QUOTE=Baa_Baa;695579. https://www.glassons.com (check the front page first and then click on 'Sales') ]

Thanks for the link.
Have watched it four times already.
Maybe on the fifth view I may notice the clothes,although I doubt it.!..lol.

[minimoke]

[QUOTE=Baa_Baa;695579. https://www.glassons.com (check the front page first and then click on 'Sales') ]

Thanks for the link.
Have watched it four times already.
Maybe on the fifth view I may notice the clothes,although I doubt it.!..lol.This share research is hard work. Thanks for your efforts.

[Beagle]

Yea Baa Baa many thanks for the link. Very "hard work" reviewing websites like that :lol:
No wonder they're doing so well with online sales with a smoking hot website like that !!!
Just imagine how keenly the annual meeting would be attended if they had models like that attending and modelling their latest fashion wear, Percy would book himself a front row seat regardless of what time of day it started :)

[couta1]

Oh no, I was just thinking I would pick a few more up under $3.40 when another party spoiler or two jump in with some big numbers, some big players can sniff value here.

[minimoke]

Oh no, I was just thinking I would pick a few more up under $3.40 when another party spoiler or two jump in with some big numbers, some big players can sniff value here.
maybe like yesterday - gone by lunch time

[see weed]

Oh no, I was just thinking I would pick a few more up under $3.40 when another party spoiler or two jump in with some big numbers, some big players can sniff value here.
Those big numbers are good for the strippers. But if Winner is right, why would you strip now with another div in 16 weeks and a sp of $5 coming up next year:).

[couta1]

Those big numbers are good for the strippers. But if Winner is right, why would you strip now with another div in 16 weeks and a sp of $5 coming up next year:). Too much upside potential to strip this one IMO, possible dollar capital gain plus 30-35c cents in divvies over the next year.

[Beagle]

Too much upside potential to strip this one IMO, possible dollar to two dollar capital gain plus 35 - 40 cents in divvies over the next year.

Couldn't agree more and fixed that for ya mate.

[BlackPeter]

Very accurate for me but im big on t-shirts and i know what i like.Have bought many over the years from hallensteins, nothing so far this summer. Im hopeful they will get some cool designs in, i check weekly, you have to as they cleverly introduce new stuff continuously.

No T-shirts for you? I would have thought something like that would suit you well ...

https://www.hallensteins.com/product/park-two-heads-tee?i=9006982&b=9007024

https://www.hallensteins.com/product/park-spray-bay-tee?i=8996288&b=8996342

Discl: No T-shirt person ...

[Beagle]

Sales results speak for themselves and make anyone's comments regarding their view of the current fashion completely irrelevant in my opinion.

[Joshuatree]

Thanks.Havn't looked online for a while, theres one maybe out of 200 plus designs there . Great snappy line of suits there at Hallys for you BP, and a TUX stretchwhite-stretch-tux-jacket (https://www.hallensteins.com/suit/white-stretch-tux-jacket?i=181)

[minimoke]

maybe like yesterday - gone by lunch time
Is it lunchtime yet?

[Raz]

Is it lunchtime yet?

It an't like a ski ramp, regardless of all the efforts..nice to have... however a bugger to offload with a large shareholding :-)

[percy]

It an't like a ski ramp, regardless of all the efforts..nice to have... however a bugger to offload with a large shareholding :-)

469,645 HLG shares traded for $1,599,207 yesterday.
So some "smaller" investors found good liquidity.

[JeremyALD]

469,645 HLG shares traded for $1,599,207 yesterday.
So some "smaller" investors found good liquidity.

Must be a couple of the biggest trading days in a while? I've just been reviewing their announcements and it is very impressive. I'm expecting 11m - 12m NPAT first half and think they could reach 20m fairly comfortably for the full year which would be their best result in over 5 years. Also it's the first time in a while they've achieved good growth two years in a row.

[winner69]

Must be a couple of the biggest trading days in a while? I've just been reviewing their announcements and it is very impressive. I'm expecting 11m - 12m NPAT first half and think they could reach 20m fairly comfortably for the full year which would be their best result in over 5 years. Also it's the first time in a while they've achieved good growth two years in a row.

Jeez Jeremy - make $12m in H1 and $20m full year ....would mean no profit growth in H2

You did say 'comfortably' reach $20m but I'm sure you really think it's going to be a hot higher eh

At $22m it's an EPS of 37 cents / $24M it's 40 cents

Just imagine next years divie ..... a whopper yield if you bought Raz'z shares for $3.40 yesterday ....but its the likely capital gain next year thats going to be well huge

[Beagle]

I'm forecasting hotter returns for shareholders in 2018 than Glasson's smoking hot website and I'm not just talking about the dividend yield.
Not one I'd normally put in a ST competition, (has traditionally just been a really solid divvy yield stock) but I think I might make an exception for 2018 :t_up:
P.S. Just checked my selections sent to Sylvester the Cat and yes HLG is in there.

[JeremyALD]

Jeez Jeremy - make $12m in H1 and $20m full year ....would mean no profit growth in H2

You did say 'comfortably' reach $20m but I'm sure you really think it's going to be a hot higher eh

At $22m it's an EPS of 37 cents / $24M it's 40 cents

Just imagine next years divie ..... a whopper yield if you bought Raz'z shares for $3.40 yesterday ....but its the likely capital gain next year thats going to be well huge

Let's not get too carried away. Last year you guys were picking 20m plus whilst I was more conservative which turned out to be about right.... I prefer to be conservative because it means I'm buying at value and don't have super high expectations. It's a very competitive market and all it takes is a hot winter to slow growth in the 2nd half.

[Beagle]

Let's not get too carried away. Last year you guys were picking 20m plus whilst I was more conservative which turned out to be about right.... I prefer to be conservative because it means I'm buying at value and don't have super high expectations. It's a very competitive market and all it takes is a hot winter to slow growth in the 2nd half.

Fair call on the first half I reckon but I think you're being very conservative on the second half especially with clearly displayed momentum for new format stores and the new stores in Australia. Looking at their dividend payment history I got to thinking on the weekend, is this the reliable "go to" stock on the NZX when one wants to increase the dividend yield of their portfolio ?

[JeremyALD]

Apparel spending up 2.7% in November - definitely tracking for a very strong Xmas with this weather.

https://www.nbr.co.nz/article/credit-debit-card-spending-november-b-211012

[minimoke]

Apparel spending up 2.7% in November - definitely tracking for a very strong Xmas with this weather.

https://www.nbr.co.nz/article/credit-debit-card-spending-november-b-211012
Ive done my bit to help you folks with the Dec sales. 4 pairs of shorts @$20 each, down from $40.

[Joshuatree]

Ive heard they reduce the leg lengths of surplus trou and recycle them as summer shorts. Brilliant!

[minimoke]

And jus tto keep things in perspective: No buyers for Kimberleys https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/99579666/kimberleys-to-close-by-sunday-as-receivers-fail-to-find-buyer

[winner69]

Apparel spending up 2.7% in November - definitely tracking for a very strong Xmas with this weather.

https://www.nbr.co.nz/article/credit-debit-card-spending-november-b-211012

And HLG were up 20% plus .....jeez that’s some market share gains. Competition must be hurting.

You still think H2 going to be a no growth one ......need more than train crash to stop this momentum

[Beagle]

And HLG were up 20% plus .....jeez that’s some market share gains. Competition must be hurting.

You still think H2 going to be a no growth one ......need more than train crash to stop this momentum

Yeap 21.4% sales growth (calculated at post #1533) was for the ten week period ended 30 November so November itself with the better weather and election out of the way could have been at a higher run rate than that and dragged up the batting average. Either way quite a difference between apparel sales increase of 2.7% for the market overall and HLG's 21.4% isn't there and with the lovely summer weather looking to continue well into December it all looks very promising.
Looking forward to another market update from the annual meeting this Wednesday.

[winner69]

Yeap 21.4% sales growth (calculated at post #1533) was for the ten week period ended 30 November so November itself with the better weather and election out of the way could have been at a higher run rate than that and dragged up the batting average. Either way quite a difference between apparel sales increase of 2.7% for the market overall and HLG's 21.4% isn't there and with the lovely summer weather looking to continue well into December it all looks very promising.
Looking forward to another market update from the annual meeting this Wednesday.

Remember your 21.4% for HLG is combined NZ/AU

From all accounts retail AU is not as buoynat as NZ - stories of households reducing apend in the wake of higher power prices and general poor consumer confidence

If thats the case NZ must really be on fire --- even greater than 21% growth

Jacinda effect working well ..... that'll keep the momentum up until at least next winter and probably behind

Talk ofa flat or declining H2 is so so very conservative .....and not even really a possiblity

[JeremyALD]

Australia isn't without well performing apparel stocks though...Noni B for example have their market nailed (although a different-ish market to HLG)...Glassons are performing in Australia...I hate to be sexist but a reduction in spending on clothing doesn't quite equate to a gross reduction in items purchased...it merely moves the spending to a slightly cheaper provider...Glassons are cheap...apparently fashionable...I find that encouraging...but could do with a few more stores out there

Well Glasson AU has been a shambles for a while and last year was the first ok performance. Definitely huge opportunity for Glassons if they can perform as well as New Zealand in terms of NPAT contribution.

[Beagle]

Well Glasson AU has been a shambles for a while and last year was the first ok performance. Definitely huge opportunity for Glassons if they can perform as well as New Zealand in terms of NPAT contribution. Hits the nail right on the head !

[see weed]

Is the meeting tomorrow? Wonder if it is live on line? Anyone here having breakfast at AGM? We all know it will be good results, so where will sp go?....3.40, 3.50 or 3.60? Or is it already priced in. Doesn't really matter I suppose, as looking forward to nice juicy $21k div and another in about 8 weeks after the holidays:cool:. Time to relax for a while and wait for next feed. This is so easy, like taking ice cream from...:t_up:.

[percy]

Is the meeting tomorrow? Wonder if it is live on line? Anyone here having breakfast at AGM? We all know it will be good results, so where will sp go?....3.40, 3.50 or 3.60? Or is it already priced in. Doesn't really matter I suppose, as looking forward to nice juicy $21k div and another in about 8 weeks after the holidays:cool:. Time to relax for a while and wait for next feed. This is so easy, like taking ice cream from...:t_up:.

Tomorrow,
9.30 am morning tea with the directors.
10 am the meeting starts.
Speech notes will be released before the meeting starts.

[Kay]

"I am confident that this season will be a success and as Warren stated, net profit could be above the prior summer season by over 50%"

Not too shabby!

[couta1]

Buyers lining up after the AGM speeches, what's not to like, summer sales projected to be up 50% on last year, a company that changes and evolves with the times, a stark contrast to the likes of the Warehouse aye.

[percy]

Buyers lining up after the AGM speeches, what's not to like, summer sales projected to be up 50% on last year, a company that changes and evolves with the times, a stark contrast to the likes of the Warehouse aye.

I do not see the momentum slowing down anytime soon.
"Well positioned."..lol.

[Joshuatree]

Buyers lining up after the AGM speeches, what's not to like, summer sales projected to be up 50% on last year, a company that changes and evolves with the times, a stark contrast to the likes of the Warehouse aye.

I was at the warehouse yest and was a little stunned at seeing near identical clothing designs there, smacks of desperation and so blatant.

[Beagle]

CEO Address http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/HLG/311854/271675.pdf Strong growth in gross profit, strong growth in sales. Sales YTD up more than recently updated, very sound business strategy augers very well indeed for the future.
Chairman's address http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/HLG/311854/271674.pdf

I really like their extra emphasis on new digital marketing strategies and I know we all think the Glassons website as an example of that is very attractive indeed. Shareholders are very well positioned !!

[James108]

Online sales from 9% to 12% on increasing total sales. Very impressive.

[JeremyALD]

Wow wow wow. That's bloody sublime

[h2so4]

Well Glasson AU has been a shambles for a while and last year was the first ok performance. Definitely huge opportunity for Glassons if they can perform as well as New Zealand in terms of NPAT contribution.

Last year ok?

This year KO!

[JeremyALD]

So tracking for close to 14m NPAT first half. That's more than the whole year in FY16!!!

[Beagle]

Wow wow wow. That's bloody sublime

Welcome on board properly now mate :)
First half profit looking like more than 50% profit growth compared to the same period last year, itself a 35% profit increase on 2016. Hmmm... I am thinking you need to seriously revise your profit expectations for the year. They're obviously very pleased indeed with how their new Glassons stores are trading in Australia which gives really good encouragement for the future doesn't it ! HUGE opportunity over there for Glassons I reckon...

[JeremyALD]

Welcome on board properly now mate :)
First half profit looking like m ore than 50% profit growth on top of last year's 37% profit growth. Hmmm... I am thinking you need to seriously revise your profit expectations for the year.

Yep I'll happily admit my forecasts are very very conservative. Looks like 25m NPAT is not out of the question for the full year. :D

[Beagle]

The quality of our sales across the group has improved as we continue to see growth in full price product as we
focus on fashion, and our customers. Current stock levels are in line with expectations and will allow us to
achieve our goals over the busy Christmas season. And although it is too early to predict the overall season with
our busiest period still to come, I am confident that this season will be a success and as Warren stated, net profit
could be above the prior summer season by over 50%.

Importantly though, everything we are doing is very much about the future. We are changing our business and
ensuring the building blocks are in place that will allow us to grow, and grow consistently across both New
Zealand and Australia.
Thank you.

Mark Goddard Group CEO 13 December 2017

Emphasis added. I think people who are just seeing HLG as a yield stock are not getting the big picture.

[Leftfield]

Emphasis added. I think people who are just seeing HLG as a yield stock are not getting the big picture.

I'm generally not too fussed on retailers, however HLG is making me think twice. Very impressive. Congrats to holders, the future is looking good.

[winner69]

Emphasis added. I think people who are just seeing HLG as a yield stock are not getting the big picture.


So right.

Say minimum npat of $25m (probably end up more) in F18 - that’s an eps 41 cents

So one would think that share price over $5 in April/May next year is a distinct possibly. Perform even better and $6 on the card.

Even yield focused punters should get excited. They should be thinking 40 cents minimum if not 45 cents dividend. They then should be happy buying in at $5 to $6 to get great yields

No worries.

[winner69]

I'm generally not too fussed on retailers, however HLG is making me think twice. Very impressive. Congrats to holders, the future is looking good.

Sure is

Go on get on board - good time to get involved in a company going through a transformation and wining big tine

Bring your friends along for the ride as well.

[Leftfield]

Sure is

Go on get on board - good time to get involved in a company going through a transformation and wining big tine

Bring your friends along for the ride as well.

Maybe I should join your mates at the bowling club too!!

[gbogo]

Impressive results and a stock I have owned in the past. But I am hesitant to buy at this level. Too much overhead from previous forays above $3.60 some time ago. Prefer to buy a dip below $3.30 but maybe I’ll miss out and we’ll never see that again.

[winner69]

Impressive results and a stock I have owned in the past. But I am hesitant to buy at this level. Too much overhead from previous forays above $3.60 some time ago. Prefer to buy a dip below $3.30 but maybe I’ll miss out and we’ll never see that again.


Won’t be below $3.30 for a while, if ever.

Even if Winston’s and Grant’s recession hits late next year I reckon the share price will remain pretty robust.

A huge market crash might stuff it up completely but then that’ll affect most stocks so no worries. If that was to worry you you wouldn’t be on this site would you? (Lol)

[BlackPeter]

Been this morning at the AGM, took notes and lost them (must have forgotten to depress the "save" button - maybe I should go back to paper & pencil).

However - the good news is anyway already public knowledge: NPAT predicted (if things keep going as they do in the first 16 weeks) "up 50% to last year", so from my side just some "subjective" observations.

Good atmosphere and quite full - the room took roughly 90 people (including board) and I estimate that about 75 to 80 have been there. Not many empty seats.

HLG came with its full board and most of its SMT. Initially surprised to see that many well dressed young man and woman in the AGM. My first thought (that they brought some models) was wrong. This was the senior management team! They certainly managed to implement diversity (age and gender) in their leadership team ... and yes, apparently it was all HLG apparel they were wearing ...

Never have seen in an AGM such a relaxed atmosphere - they just felt like a winning team having fun with each other.

Talked with several of the directors (and the CEO) - and there was a very optimistic outlook on both big markets (NZ and Australia). Sounds like that particularly the Australian Glassons team performed some miracles.

Asked what their key differentiator to Amazon was: They (HLG) specialise on one market segment and understand that really well. From memory the CEO said something like "Quality, offering the newest trend and first to deliver".

Interesting - they didn't really notice in their books the arrival and departure of TOP shop in Auckland (and H&M some other place) ... and some people on this thread got that excited about this competition!

Feeling after this AGM really good about my little investment into HGL - though, maybe I should have bought some more of their shares ;);

[Beagle]

Extract from annual report under future outlook page 7.
For the first seven weeks of the year sales growth has been +5.48% on last year.
Now for the first seventeen weeks which includes the above first seven week period they're ahead +15% on last year.
Sales last year averaged $4.6m per week. For the sake of this calculation to keep things as simple as possible lets assume sales are constant throughout the year. First 7 weeks sales are 4.6m +5.48% = 4.867m per week = $34.07m.
For sales to be now up for the first 17 weeks by 15% sales must have been 4.6m x 1.15 x 17 = $89.93m. Deduct the first seven weeks of $34.07m gives sales of $55.86m in the latest ten week period of $5.586m per week a 21.43% increase on the same ten week period last year. ($5.586m / $4.6m = 1.2143)
Acknowledge its not that simple as sales are not constant throughout the year but nonetheless the most recent 10 week trading period shows HLG is really getting some great traction with sales growth. Implications going forward for even higher dividends or ability to reinvest even more quickly in the roll out of their new euro style stores driving even more sales growth....? Hmmmm.

Posted 1 December 2017 looking at first seven weeks v subsequent ten weeks sales growth.
Can't resist fiddling with my steam powered abacus to speculate on how estimated sales in the last 11 days or so have gone, (assuming the 16% sales growth for the period to date includes trading up to and including 11 December 2017, assumes speech notes were prepared yesterday and includes very latest sales data right up to the preceding day).

To move the needle by 1% for the 18 weeks 4 days period to 11 December, (from 15% sales growth for the 17 weeks to 30 November) total group sales must now be ($4.6m week / 7 = $0.659m day) last year x 1.16 x 18.57 weeks = $99.37m from ~ $90m for the 17 weeks to 30/11/17. This suggests sales for the 11 days to 11 December may have been circa $9.37m or $0.852m a day up 29.3% on last years $0.657m per day.

My ancient steam powered abacus suggests to me there is real sales momentum behind the directors and CEO's enthusiasm and then there's their comments that gross profit margins are growing strongly...hmmm... one wonders if perhaps they already have a lot of confidence they can beat the suggested 50% profit growth quite comfortably ?

[winner69]

Impressive results and a stock I have owned in the past. But I am hesitant to buy at this level. Too much overhead from previous forays above $3.60 some time ago. Prefer to buy a dip below $3.30 but maybe I’ll miss out and we’ll never see that again.

The best time to buy recently was when the price inexplicably dipped to about $3.00 last September

Jeez that’s a 20% gain already ...plus that dividend that’s coming.

[percy]

Been this morning at the AGM, took notes and lost them (must have forgotten to depress the "save" button - maybe I should go back to paper & pencil).

However - the good news is anyway already public knowledge: NPAT predicted (if things keep going as they do in the first 16 weeks) "up 50% to last year", so from my side just some "subjective" observations.

Good atmosphere and quite full - the room took roughly 90 people (including board) and I estimate that about 75 to 80 have been there. Not many empty seats.

HLG came with its full board and most of its SMT. Initially surprised to see that many well dressed young man and woman in the AGM. My first thought (that they brought some models) was wrong. This was the senior management team! They certainly managed to implement diversity (age and gender) in their leadership team ... and yes, apparently it was all HLG apparel they were wearing ...

Never have seen in an AGM such a relaxed atmosphere - they just felt like a winning team having fun with each other.

Talked with several of the directors (and the CEO) - and there was a very optimistic outlook on both big markets (NZ and Australia). Sounds like that particularly the Australian Glassons team performed some miracles.

Asked what their key differentiator to Amazon was: They (HLG) specialise on one market segment and understand that really well. From memory the CEO said something like "Quality, offering the newest trend and first to deliver".

Interesting - they didn't really notice in their books the arrival and departure of TOP shop in Auckland (and H&M some other place) ... and some people on this thread got that excited about this competition!

Feeling after this AGM really good about my little investment into HGL - though, maybe I should have bought some more of their shares ;);
Thanks for your agm comments.

[winner69]

Thanks BP for your meeting comments.

Sounds like little can go wrong in the next few years

Just like the last hundred years plus ....always meeting customers needs.

I remember 50 years ago my Mum bought me some long trousers for special occasions. Jeez they had wide legs and all my mates had more tapered ones. so without my Mum knowing I took them to the nice man at Hallensteins (known as HBs) in Cuba St and told him my story. He said Mums are stupid some times eh and fixed me up with a neat fair of ‘fashionable’ pants at no extra cost.

[Beagle]

Thanks for the annual meeting feedback BP. Sounds good. Will go to the next one if its in Auckland.
This company looks very very attractive. The Glassons website is a very accurate depiction of how attractive an investment in this company is :D
Hard to believe the SP doesn't start with a "4" already but I suspect patience will be very well rewarded :t_up:
Quick update on the fundamentals lest we get carried away with positive sentiment lol
Assuming $14m for the first half and a conservative 11m for the second half that's $25m / 59.65m shares = 42 cps.
At today's closing price of $3.62 that puts them on a current year PE of just 362/42 = just 8.6.
Cyclical company trading at the peak or is there more to this than meets the eye and growth opportunities are very good in Australia and N.Z. and this is still very cheap
indeed ? Goes without saying I subscribe to the latter school of thought.

[winner69]

HLG have world class stock management. Stock turns are well over 5 times a year (Kathmandu struggle to get to 2)

With sales booming as they are I was wondering if they would have enough stock to see them through.

So pleased to hear from CEO - Current stock levels are in line with expectations and will allow us to achieve our goals over the busy Christmas season.

Wow - their stock turns must be getting even better.

So all honky dory - maybe even $27m npat this year

As a matter of interest for every dollars worth of stock they held in F17 they generated $7 of Gross Margin over the year. This year be $8 - thats some return on investment eh

[Baa_Baa]

HLG have world class stock management. Stock turns are well over 5 times a year (Kathmandu struggle to get to 2)

With sales booming as they are I was wondering if they would have enough stock to see them through.

So pleased to hear from CEO - Current stock levels are in line with expectations and will allow us to achieve our goals over the busy Christmas season.

Wow - their stock turns must be getting even better.

So all honky dory - maybe even $27m npat this year

As a matter of interest for every dollars worth of stock they held in F17 they generated $7 of Gross Margin over the year. This year be $8 - thats some return on investment eh

Ok, feeling a bit thick here. Can you explain how a company can achieve 700% gross margin on the $ value of stock held? Are you saying the product costs the company $1 to source from China and they successfully sell it for $8 here in NZ making $7 gross profit (on average)?

[tim23]

$4 next stop it should get there especially if near 40c dividen.

[JeremyALD]

So if they can exceed 22m NPAT this FY it would be their best result in at least 10 years. Pretty impressive considering people were doubting their survival a year or so ago with increased competition.

[winner69]

Ok, feeling a bit thick here. Can you explain how a company can achieve 700% gross margin on the $ value of stock held? Are you saying the product costs the company $1 to source from China and they successfully sell it for $8 here in NZ making $7 gross profit (on average)?

Remember they turn that $1 stock over 5 times a year

Stock levels over the year averaged about $19m and it generated about $134m of Gross Margin. That’s what I was trying to say.

There GM in F17 was 59% of sales - meaning that on average that item that cost $1 was sold for $2.43 to give a gross margin of $1.43 (or 59% of $2.43)

[JeremyALD]

From the NZ Herald. How this analyst can possibly try and put a dim spin on this announcement is beyond me !

Research analyst Mohandeep Singh said a forecast increase of 50 per cent for annual profit looked good from the outset but there were multiple factors at play. "If you look at the first-half of last year, the Hallensteins brand had a really poor performance - their growth margin was the lowest in more than six years, so I suspect this 50 per cent increase, a big chunk of that, will be a rebound," he said.
A less than favourable start to summer last year would have also slowed the company's sales last year, Singh said.
"You're [also] getting a reversal of some of those factors where the weather is now more favourable, they've opened up a bunch of new stores that potentially weren't open last year and so you're getting the improvement impact from that," he said.
Hallenstein Glasson opened six new stores and renovated four in the last year.
There are 44 Hallenstein Brothers and 38 Glasson stores in New Zealand.
Purchasing stock at a more favourable currency rate six or more months ago would also be an influencing factor, Singh said.
"The currency is starting to come off, although, that won't effect Hallenstein Glasson until the second-half of the year."
Glasson's strong performance was also lifting group performance, Singh said.
"Business confidence has come off a little bit, there's an expectation that we'll see a little bit of a slowdown in the economy but if you take that as a marker, they're doing pretty well in a tough environment."

[winner69]

At this rate HLG must be a contender to get back into the NZX50 Index next year. Will have market cap over $300m if things go as expected

Remember when it was kicked out of the Index it was replaced by Pacific Edge PEB. The HLG share price was over $3 at the time.


Just shows you how flawed the way these indices are structured, esp from a medium to long term investment perspective. Too many changes made too often.

[Raz]

From the NZ Herald. How this analyst can possibly try and put a dim spin on this announcement is beyond me !

Research analyst Mohandeep Singh said a forecast increase of 50 per cent for annual profit looked good from the outset but there were multiple factors at play. "If you look at the first-half of last year, the Hallensteins brand had a really poor performance - their growth margin was the lowest in more than six years, so I suspect this 50 per cent increase, a big chunk of that, will be a rebound," he said.
A less than favourable start to summer last year would have also slowed the company's sales last year, Singh said.
"You're [also] getting a reversal of some of those factors where the weather is now more favourable, they've opened up a bunch of new stores that potentially weren't open last year and so you're getting the improvement impact from that," he said.
Hallenstein Glasson opened six new stores and renovated four in the last year.
There are 44 Hallenstein Brothers and 38 Glasson stores in New Zealand.
Purchasing stock at a more favourable currency rate six or more months ago would also be an influencing factor, Singh said.
"The currency is starting to come off, although, that won't effect Hallenstein Glasson until the second-half of the year."
Glasson's strong performance was also lifting group performance, Singh said.
"Business confidence has come off a little bit, there's an expectation that we'll see a little bit of a slowdown in the economy but if you take that as a marker, they're doing pretty well in a tough environment."

Well its not beyond me! :-) Some good points and seems a clear switching going on in the economy..wait to see the next six months :-)

[JeremyALD]

Well its not beyond me! :-) Some good points and seems a clear switching going on in the economy..wait to see the next six months :-)

Hmm it's going to be their best ever H1 result so obviously some stars have aligned, but last year was much better than the year before so it's not like the 50% increase is from a low baseline which is what that article makes out

[sideline]

I see forbar have a research report on HLG today - "Hallenstein Glasson (HLG) Scorcher Start to Summer".

Has anyone access and give us a brief summary?

[Beagle]

Hmm it's going to be their best ever H1 result so obviously some stars have aligned, but last year was much better than the year before so it's not like the 50% increase is from a low baseline which is what that article makes out
Correct, this 50%+ profit growth is on the back of a 35% profit growth last year in IH performance. I'd say that analyst has not grasped how the company is transforming its business.
they're doing pretty well in a tough environment." Surely this gets a prize for the understatement of the year ! lol

[Maverick]

Hmm it's going to be their best ever H1 result so obviously some stars have aligned, but last year was much better than the year before so it's not like the 50% increase is from a low baseline which is what that article makes out
Totally agree Jeremy.Two summers ago HLG posted NPAT of 6.8 million ( one of their worst 6 month periods) , last summer was 9.2 million (this was their best 6 months over the last 5 years). This summer might be 9.2*1.5=13.8 million. It appears the researcher has used the wrong year to base his work on. Maybe he got his intel off the ASB website where they haven't added last year's figures yet. Is that too arrogant of me to think? What I really like about this company is that , with a big of work, the reports are very simple and formattic.

[h2so4]

In the future if the economy tanked and costs increased we could look back in hindsight and say we purchased a business that was at the top of it's cycle.
But for now I do like this well run customer focused growing company.

[Beagle]

Totally agree Jeremy.Two summers ago HLG posted NPAT of 6.8 million ( one of their worst 6 month periods) , last summer was 9.2 million (this was their best 6 months over the last 5 years). This summer might be 9.2*1.5=13.8 million. It appears the researcher has used the wrong year to base his work on. Maybe he got his intel off the ASB website where they haven't added last year's figures yet. Is that too arrogant of me to think? What I really like about this company is that , with a big of work, the reports are very simple and formattic.

So simple to understand it makes a mockery of the old saying "you can't judge a book by its cover". All one needs to do is have a look at how attractive the front cover of the annual report is, have a look at how attractive the Glassons website is www.glassons.co.nz and everything else is just as attractive... I tell ya this research stuff is very "hard work" lol Welcome to the forum :)

[oldtech]

Can't believe I was watching this on Monday and Tuesday, trying to decide whether to top up when it was under $3.40, and then letting my indecision get the better of me ... :eek2:

I think I'll be waiting a while before it gets back to that level.

Is anybody buying at this level? I'm waiting to see if this is just a euphoric bounce, and hoping (against hope?) that the price will come back down a little so I can get in without feeling too bad.

[Arbroath]

Totally agree Jeremy.Two summers ago HLG posted NPAT of 6.8 million ( one of their worst 6 month periods) , last summer was 9.2 million (this was their best 6 months over the last 5 years). This summer might be 9.2*1.5=13.8 million. It appears the researcher has used the wrong year to base his work on. Maybe he got his intel off the ASB website where they haven't added last year's figures yet. Is that too arrogant of me to think? What I really like about this company is that , with a big of work, the reports are very simple and formattic.

Not arrogant Maverick. The quality of analysts is 'varied' shall we say. If this analyst has been reported correctly I'd venture to say he's an idiot, or at least ignorant of what he was being asked about.

I've always done my own homework forecasting HLG's performance and my model, which I admit I use relatively conservative inputs, is guessing c. $24m for FY18 or 40cps. The biggest impacts that could send them off track are weather and a falling NZD - as long as the weather is normalish (the cold starts in May etc) and the NZD stays above 68c then I'm pretty confident they'll make $24m+.

My rough valuation is 12 times 3-year average EPS, which with $24m for FY18, gives me $3.68 but they clearly look to be step-changing the business so am happy to hold for $4.00+ next year. We might be on the way back to $5.00 but theres some water to flow under the bridge yet and they need some ducks to continue lining up for that.

In the meantime enjoy the significant tax-paid dividends - 40cps is a 15% gross yield given they usually pay it all out.

[Beagle]

Can't believe I was watching this on Monday and Tuesday, trying to decide whether to top up when it was under $3.40, and then letting my indecision get the better of me ... :eek2:

I think I'll be waiting a while before it gets back to that level.

Is anybody buying at this level? I'm waiting to see if this is just a euphoric bounce, and hoping (against hope?) that the price will come back down a little so I can get in without feeling too bad.

Sales last year grew by more than at any stage in the last five years. On top of that sales are growing dramatically faster this year. Have another read of yesterday's commentary by the CEO and Chairman. I would say your chances of a retracement down to the level you've suggested are very, very slim. I for one would be buying very keenly at $3.50 again like I was yesterday at the open.

[oldtech]

Thanks Beagle ... kicking myself at not topping up on Monday, but there you go.

Although I'm not expecting $3.40, yeah I was thinking in terms of $3.50 - $3.55 would be good buying ... $3.40 would have been even better ... :mad ;: ... there I go, kicking myself again.

I should have learned by now, I did the same a few weeks back when THL was down at $4.80, and missed out ... grr ...

[Beagle]

Can't fix the past mate, just invest for the future. Company doesn't have a dividend reinvestment scheme but I got to pondering after yesterday's update how many people might run their own reinvestment scheme with their forthcoming dividend next Monday...

[Raz]

Can't fix the past mate, just invest for the future. Company doesn't have a dividend reinvestment scheme but I got to pondering after yesterday's update how many people might run their own reinvestment scheme with their forthcoming dividend next Monday...


Happy where the share price is heading regardless :-)

If you cannot see any points in the AR report you have your blinkers on :-)

Great we are back to April SP...

[percy]

Even better we are now ahead of April's high of $3.65,as the sp is currently $3.72,as the momentum gains traction.

[Beagle]

Happy where the share price is heading regardless :-)

If you cannot see any points in the AR report you have your blinkers on :-)

Great we are back to April SP...

I see plenty of positives and am very happy with the new CEO's report yesterday and very happy with their focus on digital advertising and expansion of Glassons in Australia, (which is a massive opportunity for them) is obviously going very well. Even the currency is back above 70 cents U.S.
Its not just the models that look attractive with this one mate. Looking forward to dividend day Monday 18th https://www.bing.com/images/search?q=beagle+beside+food+bowl&id=647AEC08C5BAC3F66BD829696B5B4DEDC715EC62&FORM=IQFRBA

[winner69]

Even better we are now ahead of April's high of $3.65,as the sp is currently $3.72,as the momentum gains traction.

We should be looking at $6 next year

Been there before when HLG have had good years .....see the chart (last column is EPS of 40 cents)

Hope punters don't get spooked by little dipd slong the way snd sell out ....need a medium term view here

No worries

[h2so4]

We should be looking at $6 next year

Been there before when HLG have had good years .....see the chart (last column is EPS of 40 cents)

Hope punters don't get spooked by little dipd slong the way snd sell out ....need a medium term view here

No worries

How many dividends are you up to?

[Joshuatree]

This is turning into a back slapping scary thread, warning bells are being triggered here on the shoals.Perfect storms can blow over quickly too.Im sure i can smell brimstone and blarney on some breaths;)

[JeremyALD]

This is turning into a back slapping scary thread, warning bells are being triggered here on the shoals.Perfect storms can blow over quickly too.Im sure i can smell brimstone and blarney on some breaths;)

It is all very positive and merry in here but why not? A massive dividend, good growth and their best ever year. I think we deserve a pat on the back :) what the future brings who knows but in reality the SP was in around $3 on average performance so even if they underperform there's not that far to fall.

Sidenote but one of the reasons for growth within the group is Laybuy.Com. People can now pay goods in 6 installments over 6 weeks with no interest or set up costs. That business is being very well received and supporting strong online growth.

Looks set for $4 tomorrow!

[macduffy]

This is turning into a back slapping scary thread, warning bells are being triggered here on the shoals.Perfect storms can blow over quickly too.Im sure i can smell brimstone and blarney on some breaths;)

True, Jt. Take care when every man and his doggie get excited. (Didn't stop me following the pack and buying a few HLG, however!)

:)

[h2so4]

Congratulations has to go to the management of the company. With $58m invested capital and a profit of $25m for the year gives a return of 43 cents for every dollar invested.

[percy]

True, Jt. Take care when every man and his doggie get excited. (Didn't stop me following the pack nd buying a few HLG, however!)

:)
Not you too Macduffy....lol.
Good on you.

[winner69]

Congratulations has to go to the management of the company. With $58m invested capital and a profit of $25m for the year gives a return of 43 cents for every dollar invested.

You should really take off the $12m cash to say ‘invested capital’ is really only $46m so return even better

And shareholders have only subscribed $27m of that capital so really amazing

What happens with decades of steady profits and paying out most of what’s left after capex and hardly ever needing to borrow.

Good old fashioned money making machine eh

[peat]

over 10% in just a few days would justify a few backslaps I'm thinking,

9337

yes I confess I got some at $3:40.

[percy]

over 10% in just a few days would justify a few backslaps I'm thinking,

9337

yes I confess I got some at $3:40.

1st Macduffy and now Peat.?
I wonder how many secret ST buyers have not owned up yet.?................lol.

[BlackPeter]

Sorry to anyone who has PMed me.Can not PM back, don't know how it works, or I have, and it did not appear in my sent box:confused: . I got carried away and bought about 125,000 HLG leading up to the ex div day. So where to from here? Might have to sell a few and head for the next cab off the rank....;)

Assuming that this is just a small part of your diversified portfolio - why not just keep them and enjoy the capital gain and the next outrageous divvi in April?

However - if you did violate your undoubtedly thoughtful policy on diversification, than now (after the good AGM news) might be a good time to reduce - but who am I to know?

Discl: hold (a small parcel) and don't intend to change that for now.

[couta1]

Sorry to anyone who has PMed me.Can not PM back, don't know how it works, or I have, and it did not appear in my sent box:confused: . I got carried away and bought about 125,000 HLG leading up to the ex div day. So where to from here? Might have to sell a few and head for the next cab off the rank....;) Okay confession time, my itchy keyboard fingers just couldn't be constrained so I've sold half my holding over the last two days, my holding is now only XXOS in size instead of XXXXOS. Still with an average buy price of $3.29 plus a nice big divvy to come, one can't be to upset with personal weaknesses aye.

[winner69]

Good news and a big relief

I mentioned HLG to my neighbour. Nah he said .....last year I paid $3,34 for them and lost heaps when he sold out (and blamed me again because he thought shares never went down)

He and his mates sticking to their new found love affair with ATM

So we are safe

No worries

[Beagle]

I have a good sense about the new CEO and believe he's going to take this company up a couple of gears to the next level by really driving a latest fashion digital based marketing strategy with contemporaneous strong expansion of Glassons in Australia. The more Glassons expands in Australia the more brand awareness and more customers driven to their website and the more efficiency in their internal systems through volume expansion all driving a virtuous circle of profit growth . Heck we might even see an NZX50 index inclusion when this hits $5 or so next year. All those index tracker funds would then have to buy...that would be sad wouldn't it :D I reckon those selling in recent days will look back and rue their impulse to take a quick buck or three. He'll probably make Di Humpheries look second rate.

[JeremyALD]

Worst case scenario they hit 20m profit this year that makes a forward PE of less than 12. I'll certainly be holding all I've got for a little while longer :)

[percy]

I have a good sense about the new CEO and believe he's going to take this company up a couple of gears to the next level by really driving a latest fashion digital based marketing strategy with contemporaneous strong expansion of Glassons in Australia. The more Glassons expands in Australia the more brand awareness and more customers driven to their website and the more efficiency in their internal systems through volume expansion all driving a virtuous circle of profit growth . Heck we might even see an NZX50 index inclusion when this hits $5 or so next year. All those index tracker funds would then have to buy...that would be sad wouldn't it :D I reckon those selling in recent days will look back and rue their impulse to take a quick buck or three. He'll probably make Di Humpheries look second rate.

May be time to check to see who is in the driving seat in Oz.

[winner69]

You guys pointing out this years first half +50% is on top of a strong first half last year gives me the warm fuzzies ...strong growth following strong growth is good

What’s exciting though is that last years second half wasn’t particularly strong compared to the year before. So the question is how much is growth going to be in the second half this year ... intuitively one would have to say heaps more than 50% (seeing its being compared to a subdued half last year)

Jeremy ....thought about that or is this logic really stupid.

[winner69]

May be time to check to see who is in the driving seat in Oz.

Got the right name

[JeremyALD]

You guys pointing out this years first half +50% is on top of a strong first half last year gives me the warm fuzzies ...strong growth following strong growth is good

What’s exciting though is that last years second half wasn’t particularly strong compared to the year before. So the question is how much is growth going to be in the second half this year ... intuitively one would have to say heaps more than 50% (seeing its being compared to a subdued half last year)

Jeremy ....thought about that or is this logic really stupid.

I think this year is set to be a cracker Winner. I'm not so sure about beyond that. The test will really be if they can grow again in FY19. If they can they are definitely onto something. Historically their profit has swung between 13m and 18m with a few years in the early 20s. They have not delivered multiple of years of growth for a long time (hence its been seen as a solid dividend player, rather than a growth play). Glassons AU has consistently been a poor performer with a small negative or positive NPAT contribution so if they get that firing they'll naturally pick up NPAT range consistently in future. Australia is definitely where the growth opportunities are in terms of profitability. NZ will continue to perform, but historically profit has swung around and I see that will continue to some degree in future years dependant on the economy and the weather.

What excited me about the ASM is there was a lot of talk about GROWTH. I haven't heard that from Hallensteins Glassons in a while. Australia seems to be going really well and expanding the Hallensteins brand could be a positive play. It was great to hear their Melbourne Central store is going well above expectations. Melbourne is very hip so it shows they're getting their styling right.

Storm remains disappointing and I think they need to make a decision about that one at some point. It's never really made a significant contribution and the brand is not all that strong.

So all in all you're probably sick of hearing from me on this thread but I do think it's pretty exciting. Wouldn't mind working for them myself :)

[h2so4]

You guys pointing out this years first half +50% is on top of a strong first half last year gives me the warm fuzzies ...strong growth following strong growth is good

WhatÂ’s exciting though is that last years second half wasnÂ’t particularly strong compared to the year before. So the question is how much is growth going to be in the second half this year ... intuitively one would have to say heaps more than 50% (seeing its being compared to a subdued half last year)

Jeremy ....thought about that or is this logic really stupid.

Surely it was the second half that moved all your ratios. I thought the 1st half was rather week.

CROIC, margin and TPM all moved ahead.

Im expecting an increased second half $12m

[Beagle]

I think this year is set to be a cracker Winner. I'm not so sure about beyond that. The test will really be if they can grow again in FY19. If they can they are definitely onto something. Historically their profit has swung between 13m and 18m with a few years in the early 20s. They have not delivered multiple of years of growth for a long time (hence its been seen as a solid dividend player, rather than a growth play). Glassons AU has consistently been a poor performer with a small negative or positive NPAT contribution so if they get that firing they'll naturally pick up NPAT range consistently in future. Australia is definitely where the growth opportunities are in terms of profitability. NZ will continue to perform, but historically profit has swung around and I see that will continue to some degree in future years dependant on the economy and the weather.

What excited me about the ASM is there was a lot of talk about GROWTH. I haven't heard that from Hallensteins Glassons in a while. Australia seems to be going really well and expanding the Hallensteins brand could be a positive play. It was great to hear their Melbourne Central store is going well above expectations. Melbourne is very hip so it shows they're getting their styling right.

Storm remains disappointing and I think they need to make a decision about that one at some point. It's never really made a significant contribution and the brand is not all that strong.

So all in all you're probably sick of hearing from me on this thread but I do think it's pretty exciting. Wouldn't mind working for them myself :)

Trust me on this mate, nobody gets sick of reading your well thought out and well balanced posts. I think you're being more than a little conservative about the future prospects but we need some balance to this thread and some conservatism is never a bad thing.

[JeremyALD]

Trust me on this mate, nobody gets sick of reading your well thought out and well balanced posts. I think you're being more than a little conservative about the future prospects but we need some balance to this thread and some conservatism is never a bad thing.

Thanks Beagle :)

Tail of two stories here.....

http://www.news.com.au/finance/business/retail/myer-sales-plummet-in-horror-start-to-christmas/news-story/11c3015e1cbea5103951a15148d570c5

[Maverick]

It was a stand out buy to load up on HLG in the low $3.oos. All you had to decide was whether Amazon was going to come over and eat HLG`s lunch, or not. It seemed the analysts and Mr market had decided it was going to which suppressed the price nicely for buying . This made plenty of upside or at least high % dividend returns to us few who think Amazon wont be that bad (at least to "on trend" apparel) ,if indeed, they come at all. In the meantime HLG have created a superb user friendly web platform that should give them pole position if they do. Now we have a rerating of the stock that in about 1.5 weeks lifts it from the bargain basement it was to getting more fairly based share price. My calculations place it at $4.25 -$4.50 by the end of this summer. From there the price will depend on the next winter experience. Last winter was 8.1 mill NPAT for 6 months. That is at the top end of a normal HLG winter but nothing like the latest 16% summer sales increase. So the question is.... what percentage of this summer result is the weather + currency and what percentage is due to revamped stores, online sales and well selected clothing style. I think anything up to $4.50 is good investing but above that will need more evidence of continued elevated profit. I`m of the firm opinion we are experiencing the early results from a systemic change for an even better HLG.(with a hot summer thrown in to boot)

[percy]

Well done HLG,my divie is in my account already.

[JeremyALD]

Well done HLG,my divie is in my account already.

Yes and at a perfect time to pay for my Xmas shopping!

[couta1]

Well done HLG,my divie is in my account already. Same here, and she's a biggie.

[percy]

Same here, and she's a biggie.

New Jag ?[do n't think I am allowed to mention Mercs]...lol.

[couta1]

New Jag,do n't think I am allowed to mention Mercs...lol. My wife wants a black Nissan Lafesta to replace her orangy coloured one which has paint fade. Can pick up a 2007 model for around 6k, with a five star safety rating. PS-Already have an old Jag with a big block V8 in it, not sure of the safety rating, but don't really give a toss, it's all muscle and smiles.

[percy]

My wife wants a black Nissan Lafesta to replace her orangy coloured one which has paint fade. Can pick up a 2007 model for around 6k, with a five star safety rating. PS-Already have an old Jag with a big block V8 in it, not sure of the safety rating, but don't really give a toss, it's all muscle and smiles.

The Lafesta looks good buying.
"Muscle and smiles".love it,enjoy it.

[macduffy]

My wife wants a black Nissan Lafesta to replace her orangy coloured one which has paint fade. Can pick up a 2007 model for around 6k, with a five star safety rating. PS-Already have an old Jag with a big block V8 in it, not sure of the safety rating, but don't really give a toss, it's all muscle and smiles.

Not wishing to hijack the HLG thread and re-name it "Lafesta" - but what's the attraction in the Lafesta? (Promising not to prolong this diversion!)

:)

[winner69]

Not wishing to hijack the HLG thread and re-name it "Lafesta" - but what's the attraction in the Lafesta? (Promising not to prolong this diversion!)

:)

The colour methinks

[couta1]

Not wishing to hijack the HLG thread and re-name it "Lafesta" - but what's the attraction in the Lafesta? (Promising not to prolong this diversion!)

:) Good looking people mover at a good price compared to many others, bullet proof engine and very safe (Beagle will be happy)

[Beagle]

Good looking people mover at a good price compared to many others, bullet proof engine and very safe (Beagle will be happy)

Woof..woof... Mr and Mrs Beagle have been out gorging themselves at our favorite buffet...its going to take an awful LOT of visits to make any inroads into that dividend, both our food bowls are still looking mighty full lol.

Beagle is happy, Mrs Couta1 is a good sort and deserves a decent safe wagon.

[see weed]

Same here, and she's a biggie.
Same here, and mine is a piggy biggie also, but not as big as yours, I can only get a new Corolla. And only about 16 weeks for the next one. Can see this hitting 3.90 before then:t_up:.

[RupertBear]

Well done HLG,my divie is in my account already.

Might be a good time to pop into HLG and try on a new pair of short pants or long shorts eh Percy! :D Oh and I look forward to reading all about it! :p

[Joshuatree]

Percy DO NOT let them talk you into the style of shorts where its cool to show your butt crack, Pleeeeese i beg you:eek2::lol:

[RupertBear]

Percy DO NOT let them talk you into the style of shorts where its cool to show your butt crack, Pleeeeese i beg you:eek2::lol:

Pleeeeese dont give him ideas!! :eek2: :D :lol:

[percy]

Might be a good time to pop into HLG and try on a new pair of short pants or long shorts eh Percy! :D Oh and I look forward to reading all about it! :p

No never again.!!!
The year before last's,[or was it the year before that] Summer wardrobe looks in great condition for another year.!
I do confess to buying a pair of short longs/long shorts from WHS at $7 or $14,a couple of months ago.Go rather well with the dress polo type shirts I brought 7 or 8 years ago, at a clearance sale at Priceline,Elanora Mall,Palm Beach,Queensland.No crack here,as they belt up above my navel.
Still have not worn the rather upmarket pollo I brought at last year's HLG Dressmart shop's final Summer clearance.
I know how important it is for retailers to clear end of season stock,so I do my very best to help them out.!.....lol.

[RupertBear]

No never again.!!!
The year before last's,[or was it the year before that] Summer wardrobe looks in great condition for another year.!
I do confess to buying a pair of short longs/long shorts from WHS at $7 or $14,a couple of months ago.Go rather well with the dress polo type shirts I brought 7 or 8 years ago, at a clearance sale at Priceline,Elanora Mall,Palm Beach,Queensland.No crack here,as they belt up above my navel.
Still have not worn the rather upmarket pollo I brought at last year's HLG Dressmart shop's final Summer clearance.
I know how important it is for retailers to clear end of season stock,so I do my very best to help them out.!.....lol.

Sounds like you are "well positioned" then Percy :)

[winner69]

Bit of gloomy report on latest consumer confidence. Just as well this doesn’t impact HLG. Jacinda will see us right.


http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/028848c7/nz-consumer-confidence-falls-sharply-in-december-as-policy-economic-concerns-weigh.html?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=NZ%20consumer%20confidence%20falls%20 sharply%20in%20December%20as%20policy%20economic%2 0concerns%20weigh&utm_content=NZ%20consumer%20confidence%20falls%20s harply%20in%20December%20as%20policy%20economic%20 concerns%20weigh+CID_5fd556bca1fcf35f4eeeacccdc0ac 20a&utm_source=Email%20marketing%20software&utm_term=httpwwwsharechatconzarticle028848c7nz-consumer-confidence-falls-sharply-in-december-as-policy-economic-concerns-weighhtml

This bit is interesting -
The drop in confidence was largest in better-off households, with confidence down 10 points below average in households earning more than $70,000 per annum, while confidence rose 3 points among households earning less than $70,000 a year.

[winner69]

Reckon 4 bucks by Christmas ....3 days to go

And then the holiday boost as mums and dads review their portfolios and toss out the losers and replace them with winners .....boost will be even better if a broker or two put them in their 2018 tips.

All looking good ,..no worries

[Raz]

Bit of gloomy report on latest consumer confidence. Just as well this doesn’t impact HLG. Jacinda will see us right.


http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/028848c7/nz-consumer-confidence-falls-sharply-in-december-as-policy-economic-concerns-weigh.html?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=NZ%20consumer%20confidence%20falls%20 sharply%20in%20December%20as%20policy%20economic%2 0concerns%20weigh&utm_content=NZ%20consumer%20confidence%20falls%20s harply%20in%20December%20as%20policy%20economic%20 concerns%20weigh+CID_5fd556bca1fcf35f4eeeacccdc0ac 20a&utm_source=Email%20marketing%20software&utm_term=httpwwwsharechatconzarticle028848c7nz-consumer-confidence-falls-sharply-in-december-as-policy-economic-concerns-weighhtml

This bit is interesting -
The drop in confidence was largest in better-off households, with confidence down 10 points below average in households earning more than $70,000 per annum, while confidence rose 3 points among households earning less than $70,000 a year.

70k better off than.. poverty? To broad to be of relevance.

[JeremyALD]

The strong summer continues for Hallensteisn imo.

I have been following the brands over Xmas and this is the least discounting I've seen for a long time. Clearly that shows they are able to move stock without significant discounts.

Very confident we'll see a 50% increase in profit as forecast.

[Maverick]

The turnover has been about 5% of the company in the last 3 weeks and been very consistently high each day. It seems someone is building a sizable stake. I guess we will be told soon who it is. Its great that HLG is getting some positive interest at last from at least one big player out there.

[macduffy]

The turnover has been about 5% of the company in the last 3 weeks and been very consistently high each day. It seems someone is building a sizable stake. I guess we will be told soon who it is. Its great that HLG is getting some positive interest at last from at least one big player out there.

I'm not sure that's necessarily the case. Another scenario might be that the recent strength has drawn out profit-taking sellers to meet buyers who are looking for yield. I'm one of the latter and by no means a "big player"!

[Maverick]

I'm not sure that's necessarily the case. Another scenario might be that the recent strength has drawn out profit-taking sellers to meet buyers who are looking for yield. I'm one of the latter and by no means a "big player"!
I agree with you Mcduffy that the recent strength has drawn out the sellers. But for a share price to rise means there are even more nett buyers. Those " yield buyers" would have bought when the SP was in the low $3's for so long, not now.The constant high turnover each day ( looking back over the last ten years) is unprecedented. What makes it more interesting is that it's at a time when most of us are thinking more about Christmas shopping than watching the market. Look at the turnover drop off last week in any other company. Surely only a juniour broker stuck in his office under instruction to keep accumulating is doing the buying. Anyhow it's all semantics and a bit fun to think about because HLG will rise or fall on its own success regardless of who might or might not be buying in.

[winner69]

I agree with you Mcduffy that the recent strength has drawn out the sellers. But for a share price to rise means there are even more nett buyers. Those " yield buyers" would have bought when the SP was in the low $3's for so long, not now.The constant high turnover each day ( looking back over the last ten years) is unprecedented. What makes it more interesting is that it's at a time when most of us are thinking more about Christmas shopping than watching the market. Look at the turnover drop off last week in any other company. Surely only a juniour broker stuck in his office under instruction to keep accumulating is doing the buying. Anyhow it's all semantics and a bit fun to think about because HLG will rise or fall on its own success regardless of who might or might not be buying in.

Yes ‘yield hunters’ probably were keen in the low $3s when they were expecting a 30 cent dividend ......but now they might get a 40 cents divie buying at $4+ is still pretty attractive

Doubt too many fundies worry too much about HLG anyway with its low liquidity and not being in the NZX50

[percy]

I think you are all reading t00 much into Couta1 and See Weed's shouting themselves a few Hlg for Christmas..Just a couple of million each, and Raz buying back a mil, he mistakenly sold..lol.

[winner69]

C’mon guys (seeweed) put a bit of effort in

Won’t take many to get the share price up to 4 bucks

HLG ending the year at $4 would be wow wow

And better still is heaps more to come into the New Year when punters finally grasp what an EPS of 40 cents plus means.

[see weed]

C’mon guys (seeweed) put a bit of effort in

Won’t take many to get the share price up to 4 bucks

HLG ending the year at $4 would be wow wow

And better still is heaps more to come into the New Year when punters finally grasp what an EPS of 40 cents plus means.
In selling mode at the moment and have sold half my holding since div day, but will be buying them back in early April, and not worried about paying over $4 for them, as long as the div is still good.

[Beagle]

In selling mode at the moment and have sold half my holding since div day, but will be buying them back in early April, and not worried about paying over $4 for them, as long as the div is still good.

Marvelous theory that you can divvy strip with scant regard for the underlying trend BUT... the trouble is you might have to pay over $5 and miss out on over $1 of capital gain. Some people think 50% profit growth is the bare minimum and it could be significantly more !
If you stopped selling this thing would be over $4 already...food for thought ?

[see weed]

Marvelous theory that you can divvy strip with scant regard for the underlying trend BUT... the trouble is you might have to pay over $5 and miss out on over $1 of capital gain. Some people think 50% profit growth is the bare minimum and it could be significantly more !
If you stopped selling this thing would be over $4 already...food for thought ?
Had to sell, it was about 50% of portfolio, but still hold a big chunk.

[couta1]

Had to sell, it was about 50% of portfolio, but still hold a big chunk. HaHa we must both now be on the same % more or less, I was on 35%, now on 25% (Quite conservative)

[Beagle]

Wow with you two selling no wonder it hasn't cracked $4 yet. Please PM me when you're both finished selling and I'll then buy some more :)

[winner69]

Top 30 shareholders selling down always a bad sign

[percy]

Maybe one of the top 10, or top 20, shareholders are buying?

[JeremyALD]

Don't really see why you're selling tbh. The summer has been a scorcher weather wise, transactions have been up on last year, the brands have good momentum, the forward PE is still low if they can deliver 12m+ NPAT in the first half which is looking very likely. Another dividend is coming in 4 months. What's not to like?

I also have been thinking they wouldn't of given an estimate of 50%+ NPAT unless they were pretty confident. Otherwise why else wouldn't they just of been conservative and said 30% or 40% plus. I remain confident.

[couta1]

Don't really see why you're selling tbh. The summer has been a scorcher weather wise, transactions have been up on last year, the brands have good momentum, the forward PE is still low if they can deliver 12m+ NPAT in the first half which is looking very likely. Another dividend is coming in 4 months. What's not to like?

I also have been thinking they wouldn't of given an estimate of 50%+ NPAT unless they were pretty confident. Otherwise why else wouldn't they just of been conservative and said 30% or 40% plus. I remain confident. Last lot I sold was 2 weeks ago, loaded up for the divvy so unloaded half of them (Could have got another 20c odd for them but thats life) As I said before, my holding is still XXOS in size, just dropped a couple of X's off, no intention of selling any more, taking a Percy outlook on the rest and going long.

[see weed]

Last lot I sold was 2 weeks ago, loaded up for the divvy so unloaded half of them (Could have got another 20c odd for them but thats life) As I said before, my holding is still XXOS in size, just dropped a couple of X's off, no intention of selling any more, taking a Percy outlook on the rest and going long.
Same here, have gone xos to os, no more selling this year:).

[percy]

Would appear to me after portfolio adjustments,rebalancing,and divvy strips,we all are "well positioned", to benefit from HLG 's share price upward trajectory.
The market rerating of HLG looks to continue for some time yet.