HLG - Hallenstein Glasson

[Beagle]

The Storm business is no longer considered a strategic core asset
of the Group as it is focusing its efforts on expanding its other two much
larger fashion brands, namely Glassons and Hallenstein Brothers, in both the
New Zealand and Australian markets.[

Emphasis added. Its all about focusing on growth.

[sb9]

The Storm business is no longer considered a strategic core asset
of the Group as it is focusing its efforts on expanding its other two much
larger fashion brands, namely Glassons and Hallenstein Brothers, in both the
New Zealand and Australian markets.[

Emphasis added. Its all about focusing on growth.

Precisely the reason why I bought, hope it pans out fine.

[Beagle]

http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/e84358cd/storm-ceo-deborah-caldwell-buys-women-s-clothing-chain-from-hallenstein.html?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Storm%20CEO%20Deborah%20Caldwell%20bu ys%20womens%20clothing%20chain%20from%20Hallenstei n&utm_content=Storm%20CEO%20Deborah%20Caldwell%20buy s%20womens%20clothing%20chain%20from%20Hallenstein +CID_479d45850267825abb4f422faf3a16a7&utm_source=Email%20marketing%20software&utm_term=httpwwwsharechatconzarticlee84358cdstorm-ceo-deborah-caldwell-buys-women-s-clothing-chain-from-hallensteinhtml

[Maverick]

I am surprised how staunch the hlg shareholders are at present. Other than a few nervous nellies today the buyers have had to raise their offer to meet the seller for a while now. Even though there doesn't appear to be a queue of buyers. One gets the feeling the hlg owners have a good understanding of what they are sitting on.

[sb9]

I am surprised how staunch the hlg shareholders are at present. Other than a few nervous nellies today the buyers have had to raise their offer to meet the seller for a while now. Even though there doesn't appear to be a queue of buyers. One gets the feeling the hlg owners have a good understanding of what they are sitting on.

Looks as though the seller at 4.60 is not done yet, keeps propping with more and more to sell.

[winner69]

Market doesn't seem to like them giving away Storm

Never mind ....all the low paid workers get a 5% pay rise in a few week ...as Jacinda says that'll boost retail activty so hopefully it all goes on tees and other clothes

Jacinda herself seems to have gone upmarket so maybe Glassons won't be where he followers will go to get their clothes

[couta1]

Market doesn't seem to like them giving away Storm

Never mind ....all the low paid workers get a 5% pay rise in a few week ...as Jacinda says that'll boost retail activty so hopefully it all goes on tees and other clothes

Jacinda herself seems to have gone upmarket so maybe Glassons won't be where he followers will go to get their clothes Nah, nothing to do with Storm, just what I call a boredom drift.

[percy]

Nah, nothing to do with Storm, just what I call a boredom drift.

Think you are right.
Thought selling Storm would have added 30 or 40 cents to HLG share price.
Wrong again.!.lol.

[Beagle]

The "storm" will pass and the forecast to be annunciated late next week by HLG is for bright sunny weather :)

[winner69]

Nah, nothing to do with Storm, just what I call a boredom drift.

All that extra pay hundreds of thousand workers are getting should boost retail sales ....hopefully the likes of HLG stores

Be a shame if it all got spent down the pub and in the casino / lotto shop

[Maverick]

Selling style seems to be a bit odd to me. Friday had the lowest seller at $4.78 at one stage and the next selling price was $4.60. Today there's some for sale at 4.60 so a seller drops the price to $4.55. Why would somebody drop the sell price so much when they only need to go do 1 cent to be first off the rank? I`m thinking the selling is just one person going from this pattern. They will either run out eventually or get swamped with buyers when the divi gets close. Roll on the much awaited divi announcement/trading progress on the 30th....plus a hot cross bun.

[winner69]

First Retail Group .....Retail consultants comment -

We're delighted that fashion brand Storm has the opportunity to develop further under independent ownership. With recognised challenges in this category,a more agile and responsive solution sits in this owner-run model. All the best for success.

Sometimes corporates do stuff up brands ......but good luck to Debbie

[percy]

First Retail Group .....Retail consultants comment -

We're delighted that fashion brand Storm has the opportunity to develop further under independent ownership. With recognised challenges in this category,a more agile and responsive solution sits in this owner-run model. All the best for success.

Sometimes corporates do stuff up brands ......but good luck to Debbie

Yes we all wish Debbie well.
Many challenges,design,staff,logistics etc,however I think the biggest hurdle will be landlords.

[Everwood]

On the 16th of Feb an announcement said they will release the results on 30th of March, but the 30th is Good Friday. Will the results be released the day before or when the markets reopens on Tuesday?

[Beagle]

On the 16th of Feb an announcement said they will release the results on 30th of March, but the 30th is Good Friday. Will the results be released the day before or when the markets reopens on Tuesday?

Good question, I guess we just have to wait and see.

[McGinty]

On the 16th of Feb an announcement said they will release the results on 30th of March, but the 30th is Good Friday. Will the results be released the day before or when the markets reopens on Tuesday?

As HLG's HY period ends on the 1st Feb, the rules state that a company has 60 days after this period to release their results to the market.
The 60th day after the 1st of Feb is Easter Monday (2nd April), I think that they would release them the Thursday before Good Friday. Most companies release their results as soon as the board of directors sits and signs off on them and I can't see the HLG board sitting over the Easter period.

[sb9]

Some big volume buying late in the day at 4.80, must be getting close to realising results next week. Price to be with 5 handle soon?

[winner69]

Headline doesn’t seem to fit the story .....but instore experiences are important

Some HLG stores do well


'Shopping is like therapy': Why people are stepping back inside the stores

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/102490383/online-shopping-is-on-the-way-out

[Beagle]

Buying online is fine for something you know and don’t want immediately, also handy for those in remote areas between visits to the big smoke.

Trying on clothing or shoes or having a browse around the shops can’t be replaced for many people.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

The bricks and mortar shopping is to ensure one gets quality items as well as clothing and shoes of the correct size.

Those two comments in the comments section sums it up nicely.

[iceman]

Those two comments in the comments section sums it up nicely.

I know a clothing store owner who closed his shop last year after 20 years of business. I asked him why and he said because of a growing trend of young people coming into his shop, trying on clothing and then go out and order the exact same item online from overseas !

[percy]

I would not jump to any conculsions.
BGP and HLG online sales are growing at approx. 6 to 8 times their retail stores.
Some young people only buy online.
I myself, with my imperfect body shape, would never buy clothing or shoes online,yet the rest of the family buy most of their clothes online.
A young person I know, who works in London, told me where he works, they have a special room for staff to receive their online purchases.Couriers delivering orders all day long.
Everytime I look to buy something ,like an electric knife,I google the product to compare prices.
The same Sunbeam electric knife varied in price from $39 to $79.99.

[percy]

I know a clothing store owner who closed his shop last year after 20 years of business. I asked him why and he said because of a growing trend of young people coming into his shop, trying on clothing and then go out and order the exact same item online from overseas !

It is known as "show-rooming".
Most don't even leave the store to do their order.Scan the barcode to make sure they are ordering the right thing.!
I note the likes of Myer in Australia are talking seriously to Mall landlords.Cut the rent by at least 30% or we are gone.
With the demise of RFG and other retailers the mall mix is changing very quickly.

[Beagle]

I know a clothing store owner who closed his shop last year after 20 years of business. I asked him why and he said because of a growing trend of young people coming into his shop, trying on clothing and then go out and order the exact same item online from overseas !

Tough for stand alone retailers to be competitive, they simply don't have the buying power so the price difference the young people could get buying online was probably quite significant. HLG committed to providing a first class customer experience at attractive prices are in a nice sweet middle section of the market and as they expand in Australia their economies of scale continue to improve.

[RupertBear]

I know a clothing store owner who closed his shop last year after 20 years of business. I asked him why and he said because of a growing trend of young people coming into his shop, trying on clothing and then go out and order the exact same item online from overseas !

Have friends who own a young persons clothing store in Dunedin, they have said they are probably going to have to shut shop for the very same reason. Sad to hear :(

[Beagle]

Have friends who own a young persons clothing store in Dunedin, they have said they are probably going to have to shut shop for the very same reason. Sad to hear :(

Its all about the price difference and if they leave a gap a mile wide that you can drive a bus through between what you can import it for and what the local retailer sells it for people will do exactly that. As an aside I can't help wondering how many people show room European cars with the exorbitant prices the local distributors want and then parallel import them from the U.K.

[JeremyALD]

I would not jump to any conculsions.
BGP and HLG online sales are growing at approx. 6 to 8 times their retail stores.
Some young people only buy online.
I myself, with my imperfect body shape, would never buy clothing or shoes online,yet the rest of the family buy most of their clothes online.
A young person I know, who works in London, told me where he works, they have a special room for staff to receive their online purchases.Couriers delivering orders all day long.
Everytime I look to buy something ,like an electric knife,I google the product to compare prices.
The same Sunbeam electric knife varied in price from $39 to $79.99.

Yes I agree, HLG in particular are very strong online and have a great platform. They are also pretty price competitive with any other retailer. You'd struggle to find similar styles to hallensteins cheaper internationally. They have definitely picked slightly more edgy clothes as well recently which are harder to buy elsewhere for a good price.

Very very hard for small retailers. They often charge $50 to $60 for a tee-shirt and people just aren't willing to pay that these days unless its a big brand name.

[winner69]

From WHS thread

ROE not everything as markets love the easy way and use PE ratios as a valuation tool. But ROE is a great measure as to how well companies perform and how they generate returns is always interesting.

Table is the ROE components of four listed retailers

Easy to see why HLG and Briscoes have been the best performers of the four over many years

HLG is a pretty high margin business with fantastic Asset Turns (driven from world class stock management resulting in high stock turns’

Interesting that both Briscoes and HLG achieve these superior ROEs with no debt (ie no leverage from debt to increase ROE)

[winner69]

Percy wanted Lovisa added to the table

Yes percy, Lovisa amazing

High margin ....good stockturns ....make plenty of money

Took a guess what full year sales and profit will be but even if I am out a bit might make difference to the story

On these measures even better than HLG

[sb9]

Looking the way how things are going today, we shouldn't be too far away from an announcement.

[Arbroath]

Looking the way how things are going today, we shouldn't be too far away from an announcement.

I reckon they'll release Thursday morning - better be good given all the pre-release buying thats been going on.

Still a happy holder

[sb9]

I reckon they'll release Thursday morning - better be good given all the pre-release buying thats been going on.

Still a happy holder

Yes but of course, the numbers better be good.

I'm picking there'll be an announcement tomorrow, seeing that not many people might not be working on Thursday with upcoming easter long weekend.

[sb9]

Someone bidding for 100k units at $4.95 during pre-close.

And someone matching the price with equal units, nice...

[Raz]

H & M... contrasting fortunes


http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12021499

[see weed]

Went in with all guns firing at close tonight at $5.01 to see if it would get it over the 5 dolla mark. Felt like a trail blazer piloting a de Havilland Mosquito diving into enemy territory:D.

[macduffy]

Went in with all guns firing at close tonight at $5.01 to see if it would get it over the 5 dolla mark. Felt like a trail blazer piloting a de Havilland Mosquito diving into enemy territory:D.

Looks like you missed your target for tonight. Never mind, gear up for another sortie tomorrow!

:)

[couta1]

My best performing share, percentage profit wise ,at close today(Overtook A2)

[JeremyALD]

Guess they are releasing results tomorrow?

[Brain]

Guess they are releasing results tomorrow?

Hopefully that would turn Good Friday into Excellent Friday

[iceman]

Guess they are releasing results tomorrow?

Didn't think they cold do that when market is closed ?

[LAC]

Didn't think they cold do that when market is closed ?
Thought the same....

[JeremyALD]

Thought the same....

Not sure on the rules. They are very slow at releasing updates this year.

[iceman]

Just released and look pretty awesome.
Groupsales up 20%, margins up, NPAT up 65% in line with earlier guidance and a 20c divie
Austalian sales up 60% for Glassons.
And there's more, outlook encouraging with first 7 weeks up 18% on prior year. WOW !

[McGinty]

Didn't think they cold do that when market is closed ?

They can't!

Any announcement released after 5:30pm will be held back until the next trading day. If they released tomorrow (Good Friday), the announcement would be held until 8:30am Tuesday morning.

[JeremyALD]

I bite my tongue. Another truely outstanding result.

Glasson AU sales up a massive 60% year on year. Every other brand also up. 20 cent dividend WOW

[Beagle]

Just released and look pretty awesome.
Groupsales up 20%, margins up, NPAT up 65% in line with earlier guidance and a 20c divie
Austalian sales up 60% for Glassons.
And there's more, outlook encouraging with first 7 weeks up 18% on prior year. WOW !

Stunning result. Massive growth in Australia gives HUGE encouragement for the future with it being such a large market !
HLG now a growth share !
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/HLG/316188/277004.pdf

Interesting snippets.
Looks like they've taken the $1.7m closure of the 2 Storm stores above the line as a normal operating cost (most companies I would think would have taken this as an extraordinary item below the line). Adding this non-recurring cost back normal trading profit after tax was $15.142m plus ($1.7m x 0.72, reduced for company tax rate) = 1.224m = $16.366m and on 59.6m shares this gives normalised EPS of 27.5 cps.

I like how they are holding back 7.5 cps this period for future growth in Australia, why wouldn't you with a whopping 60% increase.
Really like how the new CEO is driving this company forward, do a far better job that Di Humpheries !
Cash on hand up from $12.5m as at 1/8/17 to $18.3m as at 1/2/18. Cash flow for the period up to a whopping $20m

Current period sales also tracking strongly...looking very good for normalised EPS of just over 50 cps this year and fully imputed dividends of ~ 40 cps.
PE of just 10 at the current price with genuine momentum in Australia. Hmmm, still cheap...

[percy]

Stunning result. Massive growth in Australia gives HUGE encouragement for the future with it being such a large market !
HLG now a growth share !
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/HLG/316188/277004.pdf

Interesting snippets.
Looks like they've taken the $1.7m closure of the 2 Storm stores above the line as a normal operating cost (most companies I would think would have taken this as an extraordinary item below the line). Adding this non-recurring cost back normal trading profit after tax was $15.142m plus ($1.7m x 0.72, reduced for company tax rate) = 1.224m = $16.366m and on 59.6m shares this gives normalised EPS of 27.5 cps.

I like how they are holding back 7.5 cps this period for future growth in Australia, why wouldn't you with a whopping 60% increase.
Really like how the new CEO is driving this company forward, do a far better job that Di Humpheries !
Cash on hand up from $12.5m as at 1/8/17 to $18.3m as at 1/2/18. Cash flow for the period up to a whopping $20m

Current period sales also tracking strongly...looking very good for normalised EPS of just over 50 cps this year and fully imputed dividends of ~ 40 cps.
PE of just 10 at the current price with genuine momentum in Australia. Hmmm, still cheap...

A cracker.
Still plenty of gas in the tank.
And yes still cheap as eps growth is currently over three times their PE.
Target sp is now looking to be over $6.00.

[Arbroath]

Great spot on the Storm costs Beagle. I've updated my model which I keep the inputs relatively conservative in and get 49.3c EPS.

What I also like is the feeling the company is becoming less dependent on good seasonal weather conditons which used to dog them quite regularly. The move more toward fast fashion looks to be being executed very well.

Agree $6.00 is a realistic target this year which would be 12x earnings - hard to justify much higher as its still retail etc.

[percy]

LOV's PE is currently 29.99.!??????????
Not all retailers are the same.?!!!...lol.

And yes I agree a PE of 12 would be about right of HLG.Maybe slightly higher taking into account HLG's large dividend.

[h2so4]

I bite my tongue. Another truely outstanding result.

Glasson AU sales up a massive 60% year on year. Every other brand also up. 20 cent dividend WOW

Ha! I thought it was St Patrick's day looking at all those green arrows. An absolutely amazing result.

[Beagle]

Interesting that Australian Glasson sales have increased by such a stunning 60% to ~ $40m compared to N.Z. Glasson sales of ~ $50m.
With their market being approximately five times the size of ours and with the recent growth giving such a strong incentive for further investment over there and with economies of scale and efficieineces of distribution improving nicely as their expansion over there gathers momentum I see exciting times ahead for Glassons stores in Australia and with such a modest PE of just on 10 trading cum a 20 cent fully imputed dividend payable promptly on 13 April, I added more at $5.00 this morning.

[peat]

yes I jumped in this morning as well.
with my change in circumstance I seek yield more and more nowadays and with the prospect of growth who cant resist an immediate 4% return.
thanks for everyones comments.

[winner69]

Been out all morning (working ha ha) so thanks all for the updates. No surprises but just a bit more detail. I can't add any more

Upated this chart to give a bit of colour to the result

Todays $5 might sound good but it's going to get close to $7

Wow ...nearly doubled my money in less than 2 years (probably have with divies). Wasn't HLG going broke back then ....not capable of surviving the onslaught of all those horrible global competitors. Oh well but some of us believed they weren't entirely dead ducks and $270/$280 was real value

[Beagle]

Yes mate the chorus of negativity saying HLG was in terminal decline was almost deafening at around $2.60 in late 2016 and again last winter at around $2.90 some people were still at it... but the funny thing is you don't hear anything from them these days...lol

My pick, I think people will look back a year from now as Glassons Australia is in the midst of significant further store expansion and say around $5 cum a 20 cent divvy was very good buying. $6.50 + 2 x 20 cent divvies = $6.90 / 5 = 38% total shareholder return.

[sb9]

Been out all morning (working ha ha) so thanks all for the updates. No surprises but just a bit more detail. I can't add any more

Upated this chart to give a bit of colour to the result

Todays $5 might sound good but it's going to get close to $7

Wow ...nearly doubled my money in less than 2 years (probably have with divies). Wasn't HLG going broke back then ....not capable of surviving the onslaught of all those horrible global competitors. Oh well but some of us believed they weren't entirely dead ducks and $270/$280 was real value

Nice chart there winner...

On other note, their divvy calendar reminds bit like that of AIR. Goes ex-div in a week from today and payment a week later. Nice and quick.

[suse]

bit gutted I sold these last year at $3.50 or somehting like that and havent hopped back on board. Let that be a lesson to me! I decided to listen to some other hype and hope for some quick gains elsewhere. That didnt eventuate. Bigger fool me. I should have stuck with just patiently sitting waiting for dividends to roll in.

[JeremyALD]

Wow Glassons AU posted a 6m NPAT for the half, more than Hallensteins NZ or Glassons NZ. That's incredible. Remember this has made a loss for several of the past few years.

If they can keep Glassons AU going the NPAT we are seeing is very sustainable as the growth in Hallensteins and Glassons NZ had been good but more modest.

[h2so4]

The one I like is the huge increase in net profit. A huge increase for owners. They have certainly carried on from where they finished last year.

[h2so4]

Wow Glassons AU posted a 6m NPAT for the half, more than Hallensteins NZ or Glassons NZ. That's incredible. Remember this has made a loss for several of the past few years.

If they can keep Glassons AU going the NPAT we are seeing is very sustainable as the growth in Hallensteins and Glassons NZ had been good but more modest.

They might be well placed wth Hallensteins too if U.K. trends are anything to go by.
https://www.theindustry.fashion/20-key-facts-british-menswear-market-lfwm-gets-underway/

[winner69]

Haven't had time to have a close look at the detail yet

You guys must have some othr good bits to tell me ...cmon

[Beagle]

Wow Glassons AU posted a 6m NPAT for the half, more than Hallensteins NZ or Glassons NZ. That's incredible. Remember this has made a loss for several of the past few years.

If they can keep Glassons AU going the NPAT we are seeing is very sustainable as the growth in Hallensteins and Glassons NZ had been good but more modest.

Great isn't it mate. Massive growth potential there as economies of scale and distribution efficiencies kick into gear. With the Au market being five times the size of N.Z. I'm expecting huge things from HLG in the years ahead as they accelerate Au expansion. Glassons has finally cracked the hard Au nut and we are set to enjoy great things going forward. Cash flow was 30 cps this half so they're holding back heaps of cash to fuel Au expansion but keeping quiet about it as this stage.

[winner69]

Great isn't it mate. Massive growth potential there as economies of scale and distribution efficiencies kick into gear. With the Au market being five times the size of N.Z. I'm expecting huge things from HLG in the years ahead as they accelerate Au expansion. Glassons has finally cracked the hard Au nut and we are set to enjoy great things going forward. Cash flow was 30 cps this half so they're holding back heaps of cash to fuel Au expansion but keeping quiet about it as this stage.

Love the highlighted bit - 5 times is huge potential

Even Myer are changing tack re womens stuff ....that'll help Glassons I reckon

[winner69]

Did some quick numbers as to how they increased NPAT by $6.0m over last year

By selling more stuff $13.4m more profit
From margin expansion $5.0m more (that's pretty amazing really)
Expenses increased by $10.6m
Paid more tax $2.4m

Pretty good eh

[Beagle]

Even I didn't think this was a growth stock when I bought at ~ $2.80 quite a while ago. Funny how a classic dividend hounds stock has morphed into a stock with huge growth potential, not that I'm complaining ! I guess I could sell some and sit on the free ones but this dog is too cunning to play games like that, bought more so future profits and dividends will be even bigger :t_up:

[Maverick]

Every one who has posted here over the last few years deserves a pat on the back. "The intelligence of the group is more than the individual ". I am a big fan of HLG but was a bit nervous this morning as a great result was already priced in.
A lot of good info has been spread today but my own contribution is this....
"The last 7 weeks trading up 19%" . This has been in warm autumn weather here and over there. Mild weather is normally the ragtrade enemy. My concerns about whether the recent summer sales surge has just been due to just a hot summer has been answered.
I really appreciate the posters on this forum for taking the time to post their expertise.

[Beagle]

Every one who has posted here over the last few years deserves a pat on the back. "The intelligence of the group is more than the individual ". I am a big fan of HLG but was a bit nervous this morning as a great result was already priced in.
A lot of good info has been spread today but my own contribution is this....
"The last 7 weeks trading up 19%" . This has been in warm autumn weather here and over there. Mild weather is normally the ragtrade enemy. My concerns about whether the recent summer sales surge has just been due to just a hot summer has been answered.
I really appreciate the posters on this forum for taking the time to post their expertise.

Many thanks to you too for sharing that insight which is a very good one.

[winner69]

Australian fashion retail scene littered with trainwrecks .....and Glassons filling the void

Good eh

From linked article -

This leaves her joining a raft of other household names struggling due to the changing retail environment, including Payless Shoes and Pumpkin Patch.

Speciality Fashion, which owns Millers, Katies, Autograph, Crossroads, City Chic and Rivers, is set to close hundreds of underperforming stores due to difficult market conditions.

And Zachary the Label, Maggie T, Oroton, Marcs and David Lawrence, are among brands to have collapsed in the past year.

High rents for physical stores, less discretionary spending, and growing competition online from global retailers and large one-st

https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/fashion-retailer-sambag-closes-shop-after-22-years-in-business-20180401-p4z7a9.html

[Beagle]

I expect them to be cautious about store expansion in Aust.
Interesting to note that they are up to 11% of all sales now through digital channels. I think the new CEO and his young hip team are really working wonders on the social media front. I guess facebook, twitter, snapchat and all those other new fandangled approaches works.
Off to the pet store today...get some more flea treatment for my dogs and a bigger foodbowl for myself :D

[percy]

Australian fashion retail scene littered with trainwrecks .....and Glassons filling the void

Good eh

From linked article -

This leaves her joining a raft of other household names struggling due to the changing retail environment, including Payless Shoes and Pumpkin Patch.

Speciality Fashion, which owns Millers, Katies, Autograph, Crossroads, City Chic and Rivers, is set to close hundreds of underperforming stores due to difficult market conditions.
A great number of small business owners are putting in very long hours for very little return,as they can't afford to walk away from their lease commitments.

And Zachary the Label, Maggie T, Oroton, Marcs and David Lawrence, are among brands to have collapsed in the past year.

High rents for physical stores, less discretionary spending, and growing competition online from global retailers and large one-st

https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/fashion-retailer-sambag-closes-shop-after-22-years-in-business-20180401-p4z7a9.html

Mall rents yet again.!!!
Over the years we have seen Mall rents go from approx. 6% of turnover to well over 20%.
Wages,kiwi Saver, insurances,point of sale registers,etc as a % of turnover have also increased.
Businesses who are franchisees have also seen their franchise fees increase.
Yet landlords are still trying to get long leases with personnel guarantees.
I would expect HLG take a great deal of time, and a lot of research before signing any Mall lease,particulary in Australia.

[Marilyn Munroe]

Yet landlords are still trying to get long leases with personnel guarantees.

I need someone to explain to why signing up a tenant at a rental they will struggle to pay is good business. Surely mall owners will have drawn some lessons from the rash of failures by their rag trade tenants.

Malls are facing the winds of change. Go on to YouTube and search "dead malls".

Boop boop de do
Marilyn

PS I will be attending Percy's Christchurch meeting today. I look forward to getting his opinion on what makes HLG different from the usual rag trade share.

[winner69]

Putting some colour around the snippets of information HLG give us about online sales I calculate that since the end of FY15 to H118 online sales have increased from $12m to $29m or 140% over 5 quarter’s. (Rolling annual numbers)

In that period total group sales are up $41m - meaning online sales account for 40% of the group growth

Good that bricks and mortar stores are still growing sales as well.

Of course digital isn’t just about what’s achieved in online sales growth ....it’s a vital part of the marketing mix and both brands are benefiting enormously,

Cool eh

Share price $7 sometime in the future

[percy]

I need someone to explain to why signing up a tenant at a rental they will struggle to pay is good business. Surely mall owners will have drawn some lessons from the rash of failures by their rag trade tenants.

Malls are facing the winds of change. Go on to YouTube and search "dead malls".

Boop boop de do
Marilyn

PS I will be attending Percy's Christchurch meeting today. I look forward to getting his opinion on what makes HLG different from the usual rag trade share.

Malls have bankrupted a lot of people.These people have lost their homes,and their way of life.Most of these people would have convinced the Mall their business model will be successful,but when it has not worked out Mall's are very unforgiving.

HLG is different.? They have what their customers want/desire at prices their customers are prepared to pay.

ps.Look forward to meeting you this afternoon.Bring a pen and paper, as KW usually has a couple of great tips.!.I expect Moosie will try and match KW's tips.!
Go into the restaurant entrance,not the bar.

[couta1]

Malls have bankrupted a lot of people.These people have lost their homes,and their way of life.Most of these people would have convinced the Mall their business model will be successful,but when it has not worked out Mall's are very unforgiving.

HLG is different.? They have what their customers want/desire at prices their customers are prepared to pay.

ps.Look forward to meeting you this afternoon.Bring a pen and paper, as KW usually has a couple of great tips.!.I expect Moosie will try and match KW's tips.!
Go into the restaurant entrance,not the bar. KW will probably advise people to sell some of there A2 shares with Moosie hard out in tow throwing out charts, technical jardon and other doom and gloom stuff. Not much to say about HLG though, other than Awesome, and wish I held more of them.

[Beagle]

Putting some colour around the snippets of information HLG give us about online sales I calculate that since the end of FY15 to H118 online sales have increased from $12m to $29m or 140% over 5 quarter’s. (Rolling annual numbers)

In that period total group sales are up $41m - meaning online sales account for 40% of the group growth

Good that bricks and mortar stores are still growing sales as well.

Of course digital isn’t just about what’s achieved in online sales growth ....it’s a vital part of the marketing mix and both brands are benefiting enormously,

Cool eh

Share price $7 sometime in the future

That's awesome mate. These HLG shares are even sexier than this playsuit https://www.glassons.com/clothing/playsuits-jumpsuits/playsuits/ruched-front-playsuit-SW37210WAS?c=RAW+SIENNA All I will say is its no wonder they're selling so much stuff online...its such a "tough chore" looking at it isn't it :lol:

Locked in profits on one third of my A2 shares late last week.

[percy]

KW will probably advise people to sell some of there A2 shares with Moosie hard out in tow throwing out charts, technical jardon and other doom and gloom stuff. Not much to say about HLG though, other than Awesome, and wish I held more of them.

Sell everything...!!!...............???????????//..............

[couta1]

Sell everything...!!!...............???????????//.............. Lol, why doesn't that surprise me.

[Baa_Baa]

Sell everything...!!!...............???????????//..............

You'll remember 1987, if I recall correctly you've referenced it as a defining moment in your investing lifetime, triggered by rampant inflation which seems just around the corner, albeit this time backed by inconceivable public and private debt. It's never quite the same when it turns to custard, but as some smart person said, history rhymes if not repeats.

However as history shows you can just as easily ignore the rhetoric, and all the doomsayers and the loony chartists because it always comes right in the long run, doesn't it. As long as you own quality. Quality might be defined as the businesses that continuously grows their earnings, making sustainable profits, rewarding their investors, even in completely fecked markets.

It's been a long time since these basics have had any material bearing on investor decisions.

[percy]

You'll remember 1987, if I recall correctly you've referenced it as a defining moment in your investing lifetime, triggered by rampant inflation which seems just around the corner, albeit this time backed by inconceivable public and private debt. It's never quite the same when it turns to custard, but as some smart person said, history rhymes if not repeats.

However as history shows you can just as easily ignore the rhetoric, and all the doomsayers and the loony chartists because it always comes right in the long run, doesn't it. As long as you own quality. Quality might be defined as the businesses that continuously grows their earnings, making sustainable profits, rewarding their investors, even in completely fecked markets.

It's been a long time since these basics have had any material bearing on investor decisions.

I am not sure whether I understand your post?
1987 crash in NZ saw companies with false balance sheets and suspect earnings fail.Equity Corp,Chase,Renoulf,Euro National,Judge corp etc .
Today I see solid balance sheets,and real earnings.Yes there will always be the CBLs.
Tourism,agriculture,health,power companies,retirement sectors are doing well.AIA,POT have positive out looks.
The Reserve Bank is keeping interest rates low for the foreseeable future.
Over the next few weeks I will receive great dividends from,HBL,TRA,MEL,HLG,and then NZM.
My Australian companies are also doing well and paying me increasing dividends,AQZ,ATL,BVS,BWF,LOV,PGC and ZNT.
So I see no signs of 1987,and remain very positive about NZ's outlook, and my portfolio's dividend growth outlook.
Even the dogs,CAV,FBU,MVN,MPG,STU,TGH look as though they will survive.
I have sold most of my small cap Aussie stocks.

[see weed]

Anyone know HLG ex div date?

[percy]

Anyone know HLG ex div date?

From NZX.com site, Main Board,dividends. HLG ex dividend 5th April, payable 13th April.

[see weed]

From NZX.com site, Main Board,dividends. HLG ex dividend 5th April, payable 13th April.
Thanks percy, will get onto that straight away.

[percy]

Thanks percy, will get onto that straight away.

Do it today,as tomorrow all of us who receive our HBL divie tonight, may be looking to top up with a few more HLG.....lol.

[Raz]

Do it today,as tomorrow all of us who receive our HBL divie tonight, may be looking to top up with a few more HLG.....lol.

Ok point taken , I have stopped selling these share on the drip...

[oldtech]

Would anyone who follows HLG be able to advise whether this is a stock that tends to recover its value ex-dividend?

I am looking to top up but unsure whether to do so now or wait until it goes ex-div.

[44wishlists]

Would anyone who follows HLG be able to advise whether this is a stock that tends to recover its value ex-dividend?

I am looking to top up but unsure whether to do so now or wait until it goes ex-div.

You may refer to HLG’s price and volume charts over the past few years. DYOR

[couta1]

Would anyone who follows HLG be able to advise whether this is a stock that tends to recover its value ex-dividend?

I am looking to top up but unsure whether to do so now or wait until it goes ex-div. Personally, if I was buying now, I'd wait till afterwards, you could pick them up for around $4.50 in a while.

[oldtech]

Thanks couta :)

44wishlists ... I did try, but the charts I am using don't have the definition I was looking for.

[Beagle]

Personally, if I was buying now, I'd wait till afterwards, you could pick them up for around $4.50 in a while.

I think that's pretty doubtful with the way they're growing in Australia. HLG has a pretty good record of SP dividend recovery.

[oldtech]

Well after humming and hmming I took the plunge and topped up yesterday at $5.03.

Let's see if today shows me to be a smart cookie or a crumbling cookie ...

[JeremyALD]

Hallensteins quite often pulls back a bit before moving forward due to fairly low liquidity. Anyway they'll have an outstanding full year result (will be their best ever) so make sure you hold at least until then!!

[BlackPeter]

Topped up 44,000 last week to get extra div. and pushed sp up but don't have to sell these at a loss because start of new financial year now and don't need to make a loss, so I will not be selling at this stage of the game.:)

That's mean - hoped you help us to pick some up around $4.50 ... ;)

[percy]

Looking grim for buyers, with both See Weed and RAZ not selling.

[JeremyALD]

Hallensteins 20m away from having a higher market cap than Myer! A company that used to be worth a few billion

[oldtech]

Don't know about $4.50, but sitting at $4.65 currently. At this rate I may have to raid the piggy bank and top up some more. :)

[sb9]

Don't know about $4.50, but sitting at $4.65 currently. At this rate I may have to raid the piggy bank and top up some more. :)

Looks like its gone backwards post ex-divvy...may be current cold weather around the country, particularly in Akl is contributing to that.

[see weed]

Anyone know if HLG has a DRP?

[percy]

Anyone know if HLG has a DRP?

I don't think so.

[JeremyALD]

Looks like its gone backwards post ex-divvy...may be current cold weather around the country, particularly in Akl is contributing to that.

Don't think so, an early winter is not a bad thing at this stage as they have already released a lot of their winter range. It also drops a little after reaching a new high

[percy]

Divie is in my bank already.Thank you HLG.

[LAC]

Wow when it's such a high % divie, it looks nice in the bank acc :) :D

[Antipodean]

Anyone know if HLG has a DRP?

No official DRP, however shareholders may choose to create their own proxy version by re-investing dividends from today.

[see weed]

Thank you HLG for great returns. Three div payments in last year.............................................. 14/4/17=14.5c.....18/12/17=17c.......and 13/4/18=20c which is= 51.5c div all up. Plus shares are up.I like the look of the 6 months chart and the way the sp is jumping up along the 30 day ma line. Again Thank you HLG and hope you have another good 2018 year:t_up:.

[see weed]

Putting some colour around the snippets of information HLG give us about online sales I calculate that since the end of FY15 to H118 online sales have increased from $12m to $29m or 140% over 5 quarter’s. (Rolling annual numbers)

In that period total group sales are up $41m - meaning online sales account for 40% of the group growth

Good that bricks and mortar stores are still growing sales as well.

Of course digital isn’t just about what’s achieved in online sales growth ....it’s a vital part of the marketing mix and both brands are benefiting enormously,

Cool eh

Share price $7 sometime in the future
Don't know about $7. I'm happy at $5-$6. Looking forward to 6months inter report, which came out on 24/4/17 last year and assume it will be the same time this year 24/4/18 which is tomorrow. Stuart Duncan..GCOO topped up his holding on 13/4/18, so that's a good sign. But we all know it will be a good report don't we;).

[Maverick]

The interim report is just a formalised report for the info we have already been told but with pretty girls added in. Nothing wrong with that though. We won`t get any new news until November. HLG news flow goes to ground until then, the directors are a fairly quiet bunch. Hope you enjoy the pictures see weed.

[Arbroath]

The interim report is just a formalised report for the info we have already been told but with pretty girls added in. Nothing wrong with that though. We won`t get any new news until November. HLG news flow goes to ground until then, the directors are a fairly quiet bunch. Hope you enjoy the pictures see weed.

Mav - I think you'll find they'll release a FY update around the second week of August as they have the last few years but no news next 3-4 months until then.

[Beagle]

The interim report is just a formalised report for the info we have already been told but with pretty girls added in. Nothing wrong with that though. We won`t get any new news until November. HLG news flow goes to ground until then, the directors are a fairly quiet bunch. Hope you enjoy the pictures see weed.

As you quite rightly say, HLG is the gift you give yourself that keeps on giving :D Bit of a hiatus in news for a few months but one can always have a look at the Glasson's website for further inspiration lol www.glassons.co.nz

[Maverick]

Mav - I think you'll find they'll release a FY update around the second week of August as they have the last few years but no news next 3-4 months until then.
Thanks for pointing that out Arbroath, you are totally correct.

[McGinty]

Dear HLG

Thank-you for the great ride the last 5 months, I have enjoyed this run but must leave you for a while as my funds are taking a break from the market.
Today's break of the 50 SMA was my signal to sell the remaining parcel I held (nothing personal, just investing to my plan).
I look forward to continuing our previous arrangement (good dividends and share price appreciation) as some stage in the future (possibly when to global markets aren't as wobbly and the chart signals another good entry)

Best,
McGinty

[percy]

Dear HLG

Thank-you for the great ride the last 5 months, I have enjoyed this run but must leave you for a while as my funds are taking a break from the market.
Today's break of the 50 SMA was my signal to sell the remaining parcel I held (nothing personal, just investing to my plan).
I look forward to continuing our previous arrangement (good dividends and share price appreciation) as some stage in the future (possibly when to global markets aren't as wobbly and the chart signals another good entry)

Best,
McGinty
I too sold my HLG shares today.
Love the market.
Signed up for a new house at lunch time,and by 5.30 pm had sold enough shares to pay for it.
Incredible.

ps.Have not sold any HBL,TRA or my other big holding [unlisted market].
pps.Remain "well positioned."

[Beagle]

I remain more than happy to hold long term with the way the company is growing and with the recent noticeable change in weather I am sure their Autumn / winter collection is flying out the doors. Trading on a 2018 PE of less than 10 I maintain its difficult to find better value on the NZX.

[JeremyALD]

Agree beagle everything is heading in a good direction. Look forward to another update in a few months.

[percy]

Hopefully our current house will be sold in time, for me to buy back in on the update in a few months .

[couta1]

I remain more than happy to hold long term with the way the company is growing and with the recent noticeable change in weather I am sure their Autumn / winter collection is flying out the doors. Trading on a 2018 PE of less than 10 I maintain its difficult to find better value on the NZX. Agree, I see no reason to sell any, if fact I bought more at $4.62 a week or so ago.

[winner69]

I too sold my HLG shares today.
Love the market.
Signed up for a new house at lunch time,and by 5.30 pm had sold enough shares to pay for it.
Incredible.

ps.Have not sold any HBL,TRA or my other big holding [unlisted market].
pps.Remain "well positioned."

Well done percy

You'll enjoy Fendalton - pretty sure of it

[percy]

Well done percy

You'll enjoy Fendalton - pretty sure of it

As always the other side of town.!!
Google Harcourts ChCh,then Opawa,"over 60's as it should be."

[RupertBear]

Agree, I see no reason to sell any, if fact I bought more at $4.62 a week or so ago.

I was a little late to this party, got in in time to get the dividend but of course it has now gone down and I am in the red :( hmm not sure whether to top up and average down or just hold on. :confused: Oh the decisions!

[JeremyALD]

Point to note is the very significant growth within Glassons AU. Sales for the half almost equalled the previous years total sales, which themselves we're 20% up on the previous year. The growth potential in Australia is clearly there, whilst NZ has delivered pretty consistent profits over a number of years enabling good dividends. So we have a pretty good growth story in AU, but also stable NZ earnings as a backstop. Hallenstein Brothers is also just touching the water in Australia so there's opportunity to push into Australia there if they see that's viable.

There's a possibility that AU could contribute more to NPAT than NZ if things continue the way they are going. Imagine that 40m NPAT in a few years. Will be interesting to see if they want to aggressively approach growth in AU at any stage. Selling storm is an indication to me that they just might.

[JeremyALD]

Does anyone know how many stores there are for Hallensteins NZ, Glassons AU and Glassons NZ (separated out by segment). I want to do some anaylsis on average sales per store ect but I can't find the numbers anywhere.

Would also be interesting to see how much room there is to expand the Glassons AU footprint.

[McGinty]

I was a little late to this party, got in in time to get the dividend but of course it has now gone down and I am in the red :( hmm not sure whether to top up and average down or just hold on. :confused: Oh the decisions!

What was your plan when you purchased RB?

When I enter a stock I always follow a plan and know when I'm going to exit (in most cases a TA entry and exit), hardest part is making sure that I sick with it :)

[couta1]

I was a little late to this party, got in in time to get the dividend but of course it has now gone down and I am in the red :( hmm not sure whether to top up and average down or just hold on. :confused: Oh the decisions! It's a no-brainer, average down on the dips, you know you want to.

[Beagle]

Does anyone know how many stores there are for Hallensteins NZ, Glassons AU and Glassons NZ (separated out by segment). I want to do some anaylsis on average sales per store ect but I can't find the numbers anywhere.

Would also be interesting to see how much room there is to expand the Glassons AU footprint.

There are less AU Glassons stores than N.Z. and the Aussie market is about 5 times the size...they held back 10 cps in cash flow in the first half and Australian sales are growing at 60%...join the dots mate :)
I don't know any more than what's disclosed in the various company reports but I think AU expansion is the most exciting aspect to HLG and why I thin k this is a great hold, (apart from the cheap PE an d outstanding dividend yield of course).

[RupertBear]

What was your plan when you purchased RB?

When I enter a stock I always follow a plan and know when I'm going to exit (in most cases a TA entry and exit), hardest part is making sure that I sick with it :)

My plan was for the share price to go up McGinty! :D I didnt get my timing right by buying in to get the divie, I should have waited. Easy with hindsight. Think I will probably do a Couta and top up but a bit worried it may keep going down ... hmmm My brain is suffering from the ATM roller coaster, I cant make a decision to save myself! :eek2:

[LAC]

I too sold my HLG shares today.
Love the market.
Signed up for a new house at lunch time,and by 5.30 pm had sold enough shares to pay for it.
Incredible.

ps.Have not sold any HBL,TRA or my other big holding [unlisted market].
pps.Remain "well positioned."

Congrats on the new purchase, hope u picked it up at a bargain, not many of them around in the market at the moment

[Baa_Baa]

It's a no-brainer, average down on the dips, you know you want to.

Be careful and considerate, don't fun with the noobs who don't have your depth of pocket or investment lessons, you walk the wild side and are unique in your approach. Not for everyone, normal folks can get hurt big time doing what you do without knowing how to do it.

[RupertBear]

I too sold my HLG shares today.
Love the market.
Signed up for a new house at lunch time,and by 5.30 pm had sold enough shares to pay for it.
Incredible.

ps.Have not sold any HBL,TRA or my other big holding [unlisted market].
pps.Remain "well positioned."


Congrats on your new house Percy and well done being able to sell enough shares to pay for it and still remain "well positioned"! Thats fantastic! :)

[McGinty]

My plan was for the share price to go up McGinty! :D I didnt get my timing right by buying in to get the divie, I should have waited. Easy with hindsight. Think I will probably do a Couta and top up but a bit worried it may keep going down ... hmmm My brain is suffering from the ATM roller coaster, I cant make a decision to save myself! :eek2:

I wish it was that easy (share price going up), but if it was, everybody would be making money. :)

Risk is the hardest, but most important aspect to manage when investing in the market. From my experience the only way I could do this was to create a plan of when to buy/sell and stick to it (unless a negative surprise happens like a downgrade). Over time the plan evolves to match your personality and risk tolerance.

Not having a plan creates uncertainty and trying to follow others (which may not fit with your personality).

I've written my Investment Philosophy down and in the first sentence is "Risk management first, profit comes second", and capital preservation is number one in risk management. So maybe if your unsure, don't buy any more.

Both HLG and ATM are great NZ companies, but that doesn't guarantee that the stock price will stand strong and won't be influenced by the greater market forces.

Disc: Sold All my NZX (including ATM) and ASX stocks (excluding goldies) - Capital Preservation

[RupertBear]

I wish it was that easy (share price going up), but if it was, everybody would be making money. :)

Risk is the hardest, but most important aspect to manage when investing in the market. From my experience the only way I could do this was to create a plan of when to buy/sell and stick to it (unless a negative surprise happens like a downgrade). Over time the plan evolves to match your personality and risk tolerance.

Not having a plan creates uncertainty and trying to follow others (which may not fit with your personality).

I've written my Investment Philosophy down and in the first sentence is "Risk management first, profit comes second", and capital preservation is number one in risk management. So maybe if your unsure, don't buy any more.

Both HLG and ATM are great NZ companies, but that doesn't guarantee that the stock price will stand strong and won't be influenced by the greater market forces.

Disc: Sold All my NZX (including ATM) and ASX stocks (excluding goldies) - Capital Preservation

Thanks for that McGinty, much appreciated. :)

[iceman]

I too sold my HLG shares today.
Love the market.
Signed up for a new house at lunch time,and by 5.30 pm had sold enough shares to pay for it.
Incredible.

ps.Have not sold any HBL,TRA or my other big holding [unlisted market].
pps.Remain "well positioned."

Well done Percy. Shows once again that people sell for all sorts of reasons. Wish you well in the new house. I'm happy holding onto my relatively large holding in HLG. The growth in Australia is exciting.

[percy]

Well done Percy. Shows once again that people sell for all sorts of reasons. Wish you well in the new house. I'm happy holding onto my relatively large holding in HLG. The growth in Australia is exciting.

I have a history of selling the wrong shares when I buy houses.
Spend a lot of time trying to get it right,but am yet to do so.
That said, I signed up for the house at lunch time yesterday, and had my money organised by 5.30pm.Sold out of 26 companies .A lot of small Aussie small cap stocks went.
With USA market well down overnight I am happy "job done."
A bit going on for me in May.Hobson Wealth HBL presentation on 2nd May,PAZ agm on 12th May and TRA annual result at the end of May.
We will have to see how long our house takes to sell.
Once I receive the money from that, I will most probably be back into the market,and hope to buy back some of the shares I have sold..

[Beagle]

I wish it was that easy (share price going up), but if it was, everybody would be making money. :)

Risk is the hardest, but most important aspect to manage when investing in the market. From my experience the only way I could do this was to create a plan of when to buy/sell and stick to it (unless a negative surprise happens like a downgrade). Over time the plan evolves to match your personality and risk tolerance.

Not having a plan creates uncertainty and trying to follow others (which may not fit with your personality).

I've written my Investment Philosophy down and in the first sentence is "Risk management first, profit comes second", and capital preservation is number one in risk management. So maybe if your unsure, don't buy any more.

Both HLG and ATM are great NZ companies, but that doesn't guarantee that the stock price will stand strong and won't be influenced by the greater market forces.

Disc: Sold All my NZX (including ATM) and ASX stocks (excluding goldies) - Capital Preservation

Have you been listening to KW ? She's very bearish.

[see weed]

My plan was for the share price to go up McGinty! :D I didnt get my timing right by buying in to get the divie, I should have waited. Easy with hindsight. Think I will probably do a Couta and top up but a bit worried it may keep going down ... hmmm My brain is suffering from the ATM roller coaster, I cant make a decision to save myself! :eek2:
I'm in the same boat as you and bought an etra 44,000 at 4.95 to 5.05 to get a bigger div pay out.Depends if you are trader or investor or a bit of both. I have been known to sell and make a loss for tax purposes and then buy them back to make a gain later. last month had to make a controlled loss of about $76,000 including fees but made sure the companies I was buying and selling paid a similar amount of the loss I made back in divs. So it worked out about even. At the beginning March my tax bill would of been about $40,000 to $50,000 dollars, but have got it down to about $8,000 to $10,000 and get to keep all those dividends. So don't worry about HLG, they will come back up slowly mainly because of the fantastic div they pay...over 50c to me in the last year and not to forget it is a goodly run company.

[RupertBear]

I'm in the same boat as you and bought an etra 44,000 at 4.95 to 5.05 to get a bigger div pay out.Depends if you are trader or investor or a bit of both. I have been known to sell and make a loss for tax purposes and then buy them back to make a gain later. last month had to make a controlled loss of about $76,000 including fees but made sure the companies I was buying and selling paid a similar amount of the loss I made back in divs. So it worked out about even. At the beginning March my tax bill would of been about $40,000 to $50,000 dollars, but have got it down to about $8,000 to $10,000 and get to keep all those dividends. So don't worry about HLG, they will come back up slowly mainly because of the fantastic div they pay...over 50c to me in the last year and not to forget it is a goodly run company.

You bought an extra 44,000 to get a bigger divie! :eek2: WOWZA! My boat is just a wee dingy compared to your passenger liner! You must have balls of steel see weed! :D

[McGinty]

Have you been listening to KW ? She's very bearish.

Indeed I have, but it only takes a quick look at the global situation and individual stock charts to identify the lack of upward momentum.

[couta1]

Indeed I have, but it only takes a quick look at the global situation and individual stock charts to identify the lack of upward momentum. I see HLG as quite a defensive stock, low beta, low liquidity (No shorters) low overseas ownership, and in growth phase currently.

[winner69]

Indeed I have, but it only takes a quick look at the global situation and individual stock charts to identify the lack of upward momentum.

US 10 Year Bonds have upward momentum

[couta1]

US 10 Year Bonds have upward momentum As long as the 10-2 spread doesn't become inverted, nothing to worry about yet, in fact the curve was relatively flat during the great 1994-2000 stock market run.

[McGinty]

I see HLG as quite a defensive stock, low beta, low liquidity (No shorters) low overseas ownership, and in growth phase currently.

Right on all counts there, but I see low liquidity as a negative if the USA starts sneezing again.

[Beagle]

I see HLG as quite a defensive stock, low beta, low liquidity (No shorters) low overseas ownership, and in growth phase currently.

Strong growth for the foreseeable future in my opinion mate. A great stock to own as part of a well diversified portfolio in tandem with seven other good stocks :p

[LAC]

Strong growth for the foreseeable future in my opinion mate. A great stock to own as part of a well diversified portfolio in tandem with seven other good stocks :p

SML, ATM, SUM, HLG, THL, AIR, RBD, OCA

How many of your 7 did I get right:)?:)

[Beagle]

6 but I'm not so sure AIR fits the bill of a good stock right at the minute :eek2: Thankfully just a very, very small shareholding left, just enough to bleat like a seal pup at the next annual meeting. THL and RBD good stocks too but very fully priced in my opinion.

[winner69]

this 'tumbling' NZD v the USD might be a bit of drag on next years margins

But then if if the NZD tumbles against the AUD then HLG earnings are worth more eh

So no worries on balance

ANother 20 cent plus divie soon

[couta1]

Seems $4.60 is a strong support level, was looking to open lower then buyers quickly stepped in, not a good divvy strip though, just as I thought.

[Beagle]

Seems $4.60 is a strong support level, was looking to open lower then buyers quickly stepped in, not a good divvy strip though, just as I thought.

You were bang on the money alright. Happy to sleep by my dog food bowl waiting, (bit of a long wait till December...might have to do some exercise ad barking as well while I wait) for the next HUGE divvy feed.

[macduffy]

I know that brokers' recommendations aren't thought of very highly on this forum but, FWIW, Craigs' latest picks place HLG as a "Sell" - along with STU and WHS - no surprise on the latter two. I couldn't find any specific commentary or reasoning for those particular ratings.

[couta1]

I know that brokers' recommendations aren't thought of very highly on this forum but, FWIW, Craigs' latest picks place HLG as a "Sell" - along with STU and WHS - no surprise on the latter two. I couldn't find any specific commentary or reasoning for those particular ratings. That means they have clients who want to buy HLG.

[LAC]

That means they have clients who want to buy HLG.

Haha, thats the best one liner for this week

[macduffy]

That means they have clients who want to buy HLG.

Maybe. But I doubt that they have many who want to buy STU or WHS.

[RupertBear]

I know that brokers' recommendations aren't thought of very highly on this forum but, FWIW, Craigs' latest picks place HLG as a "Sell" - along with STU and WHS - no surprise on the latter two. I couldn't find any specific commentary or reasoning for those particular ratings.

Craigs have rated HLG a sell for their clients for a long time, I could never understand this. I thought they were so negative on them they had actually stopped covering them! :confused:

[macduffy]

Craigs have rated HLG a sell for their clients for a long time, I could never understand this. I thought they were so negative on them they had actually stopped covering them! :confused:

You're probably right - that they have stopped covering them - although I see that back in December they had a Sell on them, at $3.33!

[couta1]

You're probably right - that they have stopped covering them - although I see that back in December they had a Sell on them, at $3.33! Just highlights how incompetent they are, when it comes to this stock.

[James108]

I can see where the negativity comes from.. my girlfriend bought something from ASOS a few months ago and now it seems like she only uses that website for clothes shopping. Not to mention Zara etc..

Still, happy holder.

[winner69]

Just highlights how incompetent they are, when it comes to this stock.

Ha ha

I'm sure Mark and his team would dispute the bit about competence or lack of it

[couta1]

Ha ha

I'm sure Mark and his team would dispute the bit about competence or lack of it The proof of the pudding is in the eating mate, price target $3.33, current price $4.68, recent high $5.14, nuff said.

[JeremyALD]

Lol at a price target of $3.33. that would give them a forward pe of 7 for a company with no debt and on track to pay 40cps dividend in the next 12 months.

[winner69]

The proof of the pudding is in the eating mate, price target $3.33, current price $4.68, recent high $5.14, nuff said.

But the likes Craig’s aren’t in the business to ‘guess’ what price punters are going to drive the share price up to.

They obviously don’t believe/assume that HLG are going to make $25m to $30m and more every year into the future.

Some people idolise guru analyst Aswath Damodaran - he put out a note that in his view AMZN is worth $1,019 at tops ...and he won’t be buying at $1,500 odd. Not quite a sell but almost the same.

[percy]

I think Craigs' clients with a good memory will recall they were "in love" with HLG a few years ago.

[Beagle]

https://www.msn.com/en-nz/money/business/gst-to-be-imposed-on-foreign-online-retailers-ardern/ar-AAwyLON?li=AAaeXZz&ocid=spartandhp

Reported in the print edition of the Herald this morning the same thing is to come into force in Australia in July.
This will level the playing field for HLG !

[Maverick]

One would be forgiven to think HLG has had its run but the numbers in todays report, although not new, are stunning. Apart from the obvious headline of the huge profit increase, sales AND margins there are a few goodies in there too.

Storm lost 1.45 million before this massive profit so that makes the theoretical profit of 16.55 million NPAT.

The direction of HLG is very pleasing. Ridding themselves of Storm and large increase of capital spending in AU. AU glassons is still smaller than NZ Glasson but I suspect this year it will exceed NZ. Their margins over there are better too which is surprising.

So with the huge blue sky potential with the AU expansion, the shedding of storm, ever increasing online sales (which must be very high margin given the low extra overhead costs associated with it), proven store formatting and availability of them I`m thinking these profit levels are VERY sustainable.

While they keep to the script and continue with their well selected offerings then $6-$6.5 sp here we come, plus a divi or too along the way.

[Filthy]

This will level the playing field for HLG !

being objective.... it should help other NZ retailers as well eh! i.e. BGP, KMD, WHS & GXH

[sb9]

https://www.msn.com/en-nz/money/business/gst-to-be-imposed-on-foreign-online-retailers-ardern/ar-AAwyLON?li=AAaeXZz&ocid=spartandhp

Reported in the print edition of the Herald this morning the same thing is to come into force in Australia in July.
This will level the playing field for HLG !

Yes, this move bodes well for all retailers.

[Raz]

being objective.... it should help other NZ retailers as well eh! i.e. BGP, KMD, WHS & GXH

Depends on the margins..not for most items as the price differential is huge..as a amazon prime member you get a further 33% discount off... while generic clothing which already cost around a fifth to a third NZ retail...

[Beagle]

One would be forgiven to think HLG has had its run but the numbers in todays report, although not new, are stunning. Apart from the obvious headline of the huge profit increase, sales AND margins there are a few goodies in there too.

Storm lost 1.45 million before this massive profit so that makes the theoretical profit of 16.55 million NPAT.

The direction of HLG is very pleasing. Ridding themselves of Storm and large increase of capital spending in AU. AU glassons is still smaller than NZ Glasson but I suspect this year it will exceed NZ. Their margins over there are better too which is surprising.

So with the huge blue sky potential with the AU expansion, the shedding of storm, ever increasing online sales (which must be very high margin given the low extra overhead costs associated with it), proven store formatting and availability of them I`m thinking these profit levels are VERY sustainable.

While they keep to the script and continue with their well selected offerings then $6-$6.5 sp here we come, plus a divi or too along the way.

Agree 100%. When I was buying a couple of years ago in the late $2 range there were heaps of people telling me this stock was dying. Its turned out to be anything but what many naysayers suggested. I think its pretty clear they've found a new gear and now looking to shift into overdrive ! I bought for their superb dividend yield and to be honest about it never really expected anything else. Like you I think Glassons Australia has huge potential so I'm more than happy to keep holding for the great dividends and if they get to $6 or $7 over the next year or two I'm all good with that too :) 40 cents fully imputed this calendar year is my expectation (40 / 0.72) / $4.60 = 12.1% gross yield and this still gives them heaps of free cash flow to invest in significant further Australian store expansion.
Whoever said you can't have you cake in terms of dividend yield and enjoy strong growth as well !
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/HLG/317336/278419.pdf
Beautiful looking report..oh and the numbers looked really beautiful as well :D
As Maverick quite correctly picked up, Strom Loss of ~ $1.5, now non recurring means on a normalized basis going forward we can say profit from remaining operations was just on $16.5m which is absolutely stunning any way you slice and dice this !
Cash flow from operations was a whopping 30 cps. Cash on hand as at report rate had climbed by ~ $6m to ~ $18m and that's after paying last December's whopping dividend during the period.
All signs point north, and patient investors will be well rewarded.

[winner69]

OMG even Espirit can’t keep up with Hallensteins and Glassons

Another competitor one bites the dust ...and a global one at that

At this HLG will be the behemoth of the fashion world in ANZ with a few other hangers on trying to stay in business.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/103596670/esprit-to-close-new-zealand-australian-stores

[winner69]

Probably weren’t much competition anyway

[Beagle]

The weak die and the strong and successful innovate and thrive. Quite a number of clothing retailers have bitten the dust in the last year but HLG going from strength to strength. The new CEO must be far more cunning than Di Humpheries eh mate :D

[BlackPeter]

I didn't noticed they have been in New Zealand :);

[percy]

The weak die and the strong and successful innovate and thrive. Quite a number of clothing retailers have bitten the dust in the last year but HLG going from strength to strength. The new CEO must be far more cunning than Di Humpheries eh mate :D

Di is a bit like Sunny Bill.May not score a lot of tries, but sets up others to score.Makes the breaks, and commits two or more defenders to tackle him,so leaving a clear run for his wingers.

[winner69]

Good article in SMH

Just as well Hallensteins and Glassons don't treat their customers as fools. They know and understand them and give them the experience / stuff they want

Hey, global fashion brands, stop treating Australian shoppers like fools
https://www.smh.com.au/lifestyle/fashion/hey-global-fashion-brands-stop-treating-australian-shoppers-like-fools-20180503-p4zd88.html

[see weed]

Sold a few HLG last week, but will be buying back in later in the year for the great dividend. Topping up with a few more ATM before results come out:).

[thestg]

Sold a few HLG last week, but will be buying back in later in the year for the great dividend. Topping up with a few more ATM before results come out:).

That sounds a really good idea. I was overweight in HLG so just done the same.
Portfolio now overweight in ATM at 35% compared to 27.11% in HLG.

[LAC]

I probably bought some of you guys HLG's

[see weed]

I probably bought some of you guys HLG's

Thanks LAC. Will prob buy them back off you for $6 later in the year:D.

[Beagle]

Thanks LAC. Will prob buy them back off you for $6 later in the year:D.

LOL Many a true thing is said in jest and it wouldn't surprise me if HLG were around there after announcing further expansion plans and growth in Australia.
My rating: TGTS (too good to sell)

[Hectorplains]

LOL Many a true thing is said in jest and it wouldn't surprise me if HLG were around there after announcing further expansion plans and growth in Australia.
My rating: TGTS (too good to sell)

Fair play, I nay-sayed on HLG's Aust position... and was proven wrong in the last results. However; doubling down on that ... Aust is a very tricky retail market. I still wouldn't beat my Hallenstein's T-shirt on it...

[Beagle]

Fair play, I nay-sayed on HLG's Aust position... and was proven wrong in the last results. However; doubling down on that ... Aust is a very tricky retail market. I still wouldn't beat my Hallenstein's T-shirt on it...

Their brand and product offer is clearly resonating with Australian consumers and I see no reason to think this won't continue as they expand. In fact the more they expand the more brand awareness they will get with Australians and the more efficiencies they bring to bear in terms of distribution, amortization of management overhead, buying power e.t.c. Smaller footprint over there than here and the market is five times the size....join the dots :)
As usual I expect they will be very discerning when it comes to selecting new retail sites.

[couta1]

Thanks LAC. Will prob buy them back off you for $6 later in the year:D. Over $5 for sure, that's why it's currently a classic buy and hold stock along with ATM, there are plenty of other toys in the cot to play with and toss around.

[Hectorplains]

I see no reason to think this won't continue .

Fashion goes funny ways. I doubt brand awareness is at the forefront of their Aust success last year, and it's even less likely it will it drive any repeat. Any evidence to the contrary? Potential efficiency gains are also at best a guess. Yep, Aussie is a BIG market and if they are discerning they might continue to deliver... but HLG is no assured home run. Looks close to fully priced unless you're beating on bigger and better... and you could be right, but you may be wrong.

[Hectorplains]

Fashion goes funny ways. I doubt brand awareness is at the forefront of their Aust success last year, and it's even less likely it will it drive any repeat. Any evidence to the contrary? Potential efficiency gains are also at best a guess. Yep, Aussie is a BIG market and if they are discerning they might continue to deliver... but HLG is no assured home run. Looks close to fully priced unless you're beating on bigger and better... and you could be right, but you may be wrong.

Here you are roger, this may resonate... or not.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vq7JSic1DtM

[Beagle]

The new Euro format Glassons stores do seem to be having a lot of appeal with customers. Their ripper performance is against a backdrop of very sluggish retail over there, so sluggish in the apparel sector a number of their competition have gone into bankruptcy. An investment into HLG is as much a bet on their management as anything else and I like all the signs coming from them that they have their heads well and truly screwed on. Net profit for the half was $16.5m normalized taking out the non repeating loss from Storm stores. Cash flow was 30 cps in the last six months.
I see normalized EPS of 50 cps this year and the stock on a PE of less than 10, hardly expensive unless one thinks they've hit peak earnings. I think its exciting times for Glassons in Australia and I think the opportunity over there for HLG is very exciting. I guess that's the difference between my view and some others. I see huge potential for growth in Australia whereas the naysayers see peak earnings.
Like almost all things about the future only time will tell :)

[Hectorplains]

The new Euro format Glassons stores do seem to be having a lot of appeal with customers. Their ripper performance is against a backdrop of very sluggish retail over there, so sluggish in the apparel sector a number of their competition have gone into bankruptcy. An investment into HLG is as much a bet on their management as anything else and I like all the signs coming from them that they have their heads well and truly screwed on. Net profit for the half was $16.5m normalized taking out the non repeating loss from Storm stores. Cash flow was 30 cps in the last six months.
I see normalized EPS of 50 cps this year and the stock on a PE of less than 10, hardly expensive unless one thinks they've hit peak earnings. I think its exciting times for Glassons in Australia and I think the opportunity over there for HLG is very exciting. I guess that's the difference between my view and some others. I see huge potential for growth in Australia whereas the naysayers see peak earnings.
Like almost all things about the future only time will tell :)


Just for clarity, Roger. Are you espousing a long term hold? HLG is a solid company and recent performance has been excellent. If it's less than the bottom draw, where's your trade out point?

[Maverick]

Just for clarity, Roger. Are you espousing a long term hold? HLG is a solid company and recent performance has been excellent. If it's less than the bottom draw, where's your trade out point?
The exit point is when they get off the clothing choices path (styles and speed to market) they are currently on.We can all look back ten years of graphs and PE's and see they were once very popular but fell very hard. Right now they are white hot " on trend". In summer they sold cotton in the heat ,now they've swapped that for merino in winter. The trick they have currently mastered is that they can have a 16 yr, 30 and a 65 yr old lining up at the same counter. The other retailers only seem to have one demographic. whereas hlg appeal on some level to most women of all ages. Their online platform is superb too. Must be loads of efficiency paralleling that on.
So ...yes we are all a bit nervous they could crash and burn again but while they are operating like they are right now they are terrific value. ....."Aussy is a target rich environment"

[Hectorplains]

The exit point is when they get off the clothing choices path (styles and speed to market) they are currently on.We can all look back ten years of graphs and PE's and see they were once very popular but fell very hard. Right now they are white hot " on trend". In summer they sold cotton in the heat ,now they've swapped that for merino in winter. The trick they have currently mastered is that they can have a 16 yr, 30 and a 65 yr old lining up at the same counter. The other retailers only seem to have one demographic. whereas hlg appeal on some level to most women of all ages. Their online platform is superb too. Must be loads of efficiency paralleling that on.
So ...yes we are all a bit nervous they could crash and burn again but while they are operating like they are right now they are terrific value. ....."Aussy is a target rich environment"

Right-o. And a share price exit number that equates to all that verbiage?

[LAC]

Just for clarity, Roger. Are you espousing a long term hold? HLG is a solid company and recent performance has been excellent. If it's less than the bottom draw, where's your trade out point?

When EPS no longer looks good.

[percy]

As shares usually overshoot fair value,I find it best to let profits run,and sell on the first bit of bad news.

[winner69]

As shares usually overshoot fair value,I find it best to let profits run,and sell on the first bit of bad news.


.....and then buy back after they’ve overshot on the downside (when news is better)

[percy]

.....and then buy back after they’ve overshot on the downside (when news is better)

Easier said than done, especially with a retailer.
Last time HLG "got it wrong" it took them years to come right.

ps.LOV au $10.50.

[couta1]

Run with the now not the past,we are sailing with favourably winds currently, so relax and enjoy the banquet.

[Beagle]

Just for clarity, Roger. Are you espousing a long term hold? HLG is a solid company and recent performance has been excellent. If it's less than the bottom draw, where's your trade out point?

Fully imputed dividends (gross inclusive of imputation credits) for the last 5 years have been 43.75 cps, 41.7 cps, 43 cps, 39.6 cps, and 46.5 cps.
This year I am expecting 40 cps net which gives 55.6 cps gross. As I mentioned yesterday I am very happy with where management are taking this company.
I bought for long term dividend yield and see no reason whatsoever to alter amend my original investment thesis. HLG have been around for 144 years. I am more than happy to hold for the forseeable future.

[Raz]

Fully imputed dividends (gross inclusive of imputation credits) for the last 5 years have been 43.75 cps, 41.7 cps, 43 cps, 39.6 cps, and 46.5 cps.
This year I am expecting 40 cps net which gives 55.6 cps gross. As I mentioned yesterday I am very happy with where management are taking this company.
I bought for long term dividend yield and see no reason whatsoever to alter amend my original investment thesis. HLG have been around for 144 years. I am more than happy to hold for the forseeable future.

Nice to come back to a quality thread discussion, thanks for everyones thoughts...

[Onion]

HLG have been around for 144 years. I am more than happy to hold for the forseeable future.

I wonder how many NZ businesses have been around for as long? Check out the latest (in 1912) sports suits from HB as advertised in the Evening Post:

https://paperspast.natlib.govt.nz/newspapers/evening-post/1912/10/21/2

If you need some "life and vigour" also check out the ad for "Bile Beans for Bileousness" on the same page. Must find out where to get some.

[Arbroath]

It is interesting that HLG are trading on 9-9.5x earnings and a 12% gross yield right now. It's like the market still doesn't believe they can keep delivering so if they do deliver a FY result of around $29-30m then I'd expect they head towards $6.00 towards the end of the year...

[Beagle]

It is interesting that HLG are trading on 9-9.5x earnings and a 12% gross yield right now. It's like the market still doesn't believe they can keep delivering so if they do deliver a FY result of around $29-30m then I'd expect they head towards $6.00 towards the end of the year...

^^^^^^ Agreed but I am simply in this for the regular tasty dividend feeds ! Anything else is a bonus.

[JeremyALD]

It is interesting that HLG are trading on 9-9.5x earnings and a 12% gross yield right now. It's like the market still doesn't believe they can keep delivering so if they do deliver a FY result of around $29-30m then I'd expect they head towards $6.00 towards the end of the year...

I think it's more about whether they can repeat this year. We know they are going to have a good second half.

If you look back at Hallensteins long history they have struggled to put multiple good years together. Often they have a couple of good years, then a bad year. NPAT results have often fluctuated about 30% year on year.

This year has been so good I think the market is unsure whether if it can be repeated. Is this a step up, or just another one of those really good years? Time will tell, but in a highly competitive environment it will be interesting to see if they can continue to grow next financial year. I struggle to see how they can do much better than this in NZ but AU remains a definite opportunity which until now has delivered very poor performance.

[Filthy]

I think it's more about whether they can repeat this year. We know they are going to have a good second half.

If you look back at Hallensteins long history they have struggled to put multiple good years together. Often they have a couple of good years, then a bad year. NPAT results have often fluctuated about 30% year on year.

This year has been so good I think the market is unsure whether if it can be repeated. Is this a step up, or just another one of those really good years? Time will tell, but in a highly competitive environment it will be interesting to see if they can continue to grow next financial year. I struggle to see how they can do much better than this in NZ but AU remains a definite opportunity which until now has delivered very poor performance.

Yes, I think there was a reference to pink & purple flamingo shorts a few pages ago? Unfortunately fashion can be fickle.
Some styles might be in vogue this year… but next year, everyone might like green ones.
Very hard to stay ahead of the game every year and it can all turn on a dime.

my two cents worth -

+/ves
Impressive reaction to international brands that started to creep into NZ i.e. Top Shop / H+M etc
Strong growth in online sales (I’m enjoying spinning the wheel, the 30% off emails etc)
Proud history, well-known brand, appeal to wide age demographic, strong accounts
Network in ‘small-town’ NZ hard to replicate by bigger brands.
Good modern feel to their stores, i.e. DJ in Lambton Quay, electronic display in Queensgate
Current ‘growth’ in AU / Glass looking good
Easy to keep track of progress (can walk into stores, see merchandise, judge how busy they are, talk to staff etc)

-/ves
Still an obscene amount of risk from other international online channels i.e. ASOS/Boohoo/Amazon (despite tax changes)
Saturated clothing market - highly competitive, erratic industry & consumer driven
Discretionary spending category which can be hard-hit in a downturn (question mark over how defensive it is?)
Current ‘growth’ also scary (think MHJ in the USA)

Summary
last couple of years have been great (sad that I may have missed the boat on this one)
A mature, cyclical divi stock, rather than the ‘growth story’ some are trying to sell it as.
Those who got in early will be doing very well (well done guys&gals)
Others will have to be wary, as they might be buying near the top of ‘the cycle’ i.e. July 2006, May 2013….
Currently too far away from the next divi to consider for me, but may dip my toes back in the water later in the year ‘at the right price’

[Beagle]

Good luck getting it much cheaper than the current price. I think your are really overstating the overseas / online risk, (the vast majority of people want to try the clothes on for fit, feel, fabric and fashion look before buying) and I thin k you're understating the growth potential of Glassons in Australia.
Happy holder and very happy with how management are running this company.
Worth noting that Timothy Glasson owns just over 20% of this company so management are highly motivated.

[James108]

I think you are really understating competition from boohoo/asos as well as Zara if they continue to expand. Anecdotally it seems like the majority of females in their 20's are using these websites and usership is growing. Also it seems strange to discount several years of poor performance in Australia following one year of good performance.

However am a holder, I feel like they have a strong brand in NZ and there is large potential from Aus (although wouldn't count on it). I also like that they return most of the cash to shareholders. Your reminder of Timothy Glasson shareholding is also comforting.

[winner69]

So just how 'cyclical' is HLG ...judge for yourself. Profits and shareprice below

Good thing is they generally do very well for 2 years in a row ....so shareorice might reach $6

Don't know why punters say HLG have bad years. Year after year they make solid returns (ROE etc etc) ....but just some years they do less well (which is not bad)

[iceman]

Thanks for the good chart winner. As you say, they haven' t really had a bad year for awhile and looking at the chart they look like a very good, safe divie payer with their clean balance sheet.

[Beagle]

I think you are really understating competition from boohoo/asos as well as Zara if they continue to expand. Anecdotally it seems like the majority of females in their 20's are using these websites and usership is growing. Also it seems strange to discount several years of poor performance in Australia following one year of good performance.

However am a holder, I feel like they have a strong brand in NZ and there is large potential from Aus (although wouldn't count on it). I also like that they return most of the cash to shareholders. Your reminder of Timothy Glasson shareholding is also comforting.

I'm not pretending to know all the latest websites that others might claim the young ones are using but I believe HLG has a great brand and footprint in N.Z. and Aust and as mentioned above I still believe a significant majority of customers want to try clothes on before buying them. We've been hearing from the naysayers for quite a while now that ABC or XYZ would hurt HLG and the exact opposite has been the case. In terms of their digital offer I think they are really hitting their straps. In terms of their success in Australia now I think its clear the new Euro format stores are really resonating with the intended target market. Results speak for themselves and like you I am pleased they return almost all profits to shareholders, (very, very few companies do). Their consistent high fully imputed dividends offer very strong appeal for people looking to raise the average dividend yield of their portfolio.

Winner, good chart mate, if they hit 50 cps this year that suggests $6 is possible. As Iceman says, HLG has a nice clean balance sheet. Also they have no debt, very strong cash flow (30 cps this most recent half year), superb industry leading stock turn and no intangible assets like a LOT of other companies do to inflate their statement of financial position.

Very attractive financials and the annual reports are very attractive too :)

[Filthy]

I think you are really understating competition from boohoo/asos as well as Zara if they continue to expand. Anecdotally it seems like the majority of females in their 20's are using these websites and usership is growing. Also it seems strange to discount several years of poor performance in Australia following one year of good performance.

However am a holder, I feel like they have a strong brand in NZ and there is large potential from Aus (although wouldn't count on it). I also like that they return most of the cash to shareholders. Your reminder of Timothy Glasson shareholding is also comforting.

yep, well put.

appreciate it is not always easy for holders to contain their excitement sometimes, but punters would be wise to always look at both sides of an investment case with a clear open mind, with some level of objectivity eh...

those buying in at '$6' (if/when it gets there) might find the following few year(s) of this 'cyclical' stock might be those 'years that they do less well' which could see their investment halve (and having to wait for the next ramp up to exit).

the dividend yield is very appealing (as roger rightly points out) and I reference my positive comments in 2193, noting I am not 'bagging' this as a stock at all

[couta1]

I'm holding a lot of them at average buy price of $3.48, plus I've had too large divvies since buying. Happy just to hold and see where it heads to, SP's always drift lower during periods of no news and boredom. PS-Had an even bigger holding to obtain the divvy last November but one must always think of the low liquidity factor when in this situation.

[LAC]

It wouldnt be very difficult for HLG to enter global markets via their online platform like Asos etc do. just need a good distribution model.

[winner69]

Another bad day and it goes below 450 I’m out

Everything points it to the shareprice having peaked and I reckon next year market wise won’t be that friendly for them

[BlackPeter]

Another bad day and it goes below 450 I’m out

Everything points it to the shareprice having peaked and I reckon next year market wise won’t be that friendly for them

Agree. Sold out when it started to skirt the EMA50. Great company, well managed but still a cyclical as your great chart is showing. Much more fun to buy cyclical stocks at the bottom and sell at the top rather than the other way around ;);

[couta1]

Another bad day and it goes below 450 I’m out

Everything points it to the shareprice having peaked and I reckon next year market wise won’t be that friendly for them If it goes below $4.50, me buy more.PS-Looking forward to the next XXOS divvy, which could be XXXOS if the price drops.

[Beagle]

I am a little surprised you guys are so skittish. Its only recently gone ex a record 20 cps dividend so obviously that has some impact on the chart from a TA perspective but I note its still trading comfortably above the 100 day MA which appears to be about $4.40. Fundamentally its very early to be making a call on FY19 earnings, too early in my opinion.

[rainey]

The next divvy is 7 months away, so anything can happen to the share price meanwhile

[couta1]

The next divvy is 7 months away, so anything can happen to the share price meanwhile Anything can happen to the SP of any company over that time frame, actually the whole market could go to custard.

[RupertBear]

Agree. Sold out when it started to skirt the EMA50. Great company, well managed but still a cyclical as your great chart is showing. Much more fun to buy cyclical stocks at the bottom and sell at the top rather than the other way around ;);

Yes great chart thanks winner. Unfortunately I appear to have timed it "the other way around" freeking typical! :rolleyes: Although I havnt sold out...yet...

[couta1]

Yes great chart thanks winner. Unfortunately I appear to have timed it "the other way around" freeking typical! :rolleyes: Although I havnt sold out...yet... Fear not young Bear, winner was calling for $6 not long ago and if I remember rightly BP only held very small cup full of these beauties.PS-If you look back you will see I cautioned those keen to pay $5 to get the divvy that they would get some for $4.50 if they waited(Post # 2085)

[JeremyALD]

Thanks for the good chart winner. As you say, they haven' t really had a bad year for awhile and looking at the chart they look like a very good, safe divie payer with their clean balance sheet.

Less than two years ago they posted a profit of 13.6m so it wasn't that long ago.....

Anyway some of these comments are getting a bit ridiculous on here. Winner one minute you are praising the stock, the next you are selling out? $4.55 is fine. They just paid out a 20c dividend and the liquidity is low so a small decrease is nothing to worry about. It may fluctuate until the next update, but none of us can really make a good assessment until then. As mentioned FY16 was a poor year, FY17 was a good year but nothing spectacular and FY18 is likely to be stellar. FY19? It's too early to tell. As Beagle mentioned the dividend yield is extremely strong, even in weaker years. I was very encouraged by the Chairman and CEO update at the shareholders meeting where they talked about growth, so I do think this might be a step up - however I'm cautious because of how tough retail is.

So for me I hold a good sized position but will not be buying anymore until the next detailed update which will probably come towards the end of the year. DYOR

[Beagle]

Less than two years ago they posted a profit of 13.6m so it wasn't that long ago and they still paid 30 cps in dividends that year fully imputed = gross 41.67 cps.

[iceman]

and they still paid 30 cps in dividends that year fully imputed = gross 41.67 cps.

And that was my point. Even in the "bad years", they still manage to pay a decent dividend because they have no debt and turnover stock very quickly. I see no reason to sell this reliable dividend payer.

[Filthy]

And that was my point. Even in the "bad years", they still manage to pay a decent dividend

which is a great if you can hold, but bad if you need your capital back in that particular year

[peat]

which is a great if you can hold, but bad if you need your capital back in that particular year
in which case you're not obeying the 5-10 year time frame principle for equity investments.

[winner69]

in which case you're not obeying the 5-10 year time frame principle for equity investments.

5 to 10 year time frames quite a spread

HLG profits and share price seem to peak every 6 years or so ......and now could be one of those 6 year peaks.

But this time is different because Glassons are growing so fast and profitably in Australia

[Arbroath]

And that was my point. Even in the "bad years", they still manage to pay a decent dividend because they have no debt and turnover stock very quickly. I see no reason to sell this reliable dividend payer.

Let me be clear that I really like HLG and the management but the scenraio where they go back to $3 or so is quite easy - its called the NZDUSD rate falls to 63-65c over the next 6 months compressing their gross margin and if the economy is a bit softer and the weather doesn't behave how there buyers predict etc then you could have them only making $14-15m npat in FY19.

I'm not saying thats my base case - I hope the NZD hangs in there near enough to 70c and the Aussie business keeps performing and we might see $6 by Xmas if they update positive at the AGM.

[couta1]

Hey winner, there's about 62k shares wanted at between $4.50-$4.51, you might as well flick yours off now and get a cent or two more than selling under $4.50. PS-Finished up 5c on 100 shares.

[oldtech]

Fear not young Bear, winner was calling for $6 not long ago and if I remember rightly BP only held very small cup full of these beauties.PS-If you look back you will see I cautioned those keen to pay $5 to get the divvy that they would get some for $4.50 if they waited(Post # 2085)

I was one of those you cautioned, ended up having a bob each way- bought some at $5.03 and got the divvy, picked up some more at $4.62 a couple of weeks later. I may yet pop back in for another feed if I can find some spare coin, although I am overseas on holiday at the moment so not really paying much attention to the market.

[couta1]

Hey winner, there's about 62k shares wanted at between $4.50-$4.51, you might as well flick yours off now and get a cent or two more than selling under $4.50. PS-Finished up 5c on 100 shares. Quick now winner, that pile has just started to be eaten into. PS-Im happy to take your shares off your hands for $4.40.

[winner69]

Quick now winner, that pile has just started to be eaten into. PS-Im happy to take your shares off your hands for $4.40.

Is that you down at $3.11 ha ha

If it gets bad hope there’s heaps of buyers not showing their hand yet else I could be in deep strife or a remaining a reluctant holder

[winner69]

Reckon i’ll Be OK ...back to 460 by days end

[winner69]

Couts ...did you buy my shares?

I think retail in NZ is going to go through a tough period for rest of the year and I wouldn’t entirely rely on Aussie to pull HLG through.

[RupertBear]

Couts ...did you buy my shares?

I think retail in NZ is going to go through a tough period for rest of the year and I wouldn’t entirely rely on Aussie to pull HLG through.

I decided to jump ship and stop the bleeding before it got any worse....my own fault for buying in at the top....:(

[BlackPeter]

I decided to jump ship and stop the bleeding before it got any worse....my own fault for buying in at the top....:(

Don't blame yourself ... buying at the top is one of these things everybody can see so much better with 20/20 hindsight ;);

[Raz]

Couts ...did you buy my shares?

I think retail in NZ is going to go through a tough period for rest of the year and I wouldn’t entirely rely on Aussie to pull HLG through.

You position on this one is as changeable as the wind. BP good to see you comments.

[Beagle]

https://www.msn.com/en-nz/news/national/coldest-winter-in-years-on-its-way-metservice/ar-AAxIhyT?ocid=spartandhp

Looks like we're in for a real winter this year...so winter stock should be flying out the doors.

[percy]

Weakening NZ$ against US$ will affect HLG's margins.
Seem to remember last weakness Noodles worked out it would cost HLG $10mil.
His comments would be interesting now.

[Beagle]

More a case of $US strength. $US index is very high. I think management will be working hard to mitigate this.

[winner69]

Maybe some correlation between currency and EBITDA margin. This seems to have broken down in the last couple of years. Brokers are forecasting a 14% margins for this year. I think management will have to be at the top of their game to fight against the currency tide.



Year
NZDUSD
EBITDA Margin
Change in Currency
Change in EBITDA Margin
Notes


2006
0.649732
15.49%





2007
0.736172
17.74%
13.30%
14.53%



2008
0.714949
14.32%
-2.88%
-19.28%



2009
0.635232
11.95%
-11.15%
-16.55%
Recession


2010
0.721623
13.96%
13.60%
16.82%



2011
0.792322
14.00%
9.80%
0.29%



2012
0.810275
15.58%
2.27%
11.29%
Included insurance payout


2013
0.8203
14.79%
1.24%
-5.07%
Management Blamed late start to winter


2014
0.8306
13.06%
1.26%
-11.70%
Management admitted poor product mix


2015
0.740516
14.31%
-10.85%
9.59%
Broker forecasts


2016
0.68

-8.17%





Percy mentioned noodles analysis on how fx impacts HLG margins

That was his post from July 2015

[McGinty]

Dear HLG

Thank-you for the great ride the last 5 months, I have enjoyed this run but must leave you for a while as my funds are taking a break from the market.
Today's break of the 50 SMA was my signal to sell the remaining parcel I held (nothing personal, just investing to my plan).
I look forward to continuing our previous arrangement (good dividends and share price appreciation) as some stage in the future (possibly when to global markets aren't as wobbly and the chart signals another good entry)

Best,
McGinty

Interesting to revisit a stock one month later.

Upon retesting the 50 SMA twice HLG was unable to close back above it, which would have been another opportunity (signal) to sell.

Now that the $4.45 support is broken the stock could fall to next support levels at $4.30 and $4.00. It seems that the market is just repeating last year's 'Winter' sentiment which caused the price to slide 20% after going ex-div.

I would like to see the $4.00 support hold (20% from this years cum-div price)

9695

[Investor]

Don't blame yourself ... buying at the top is one of these things everybody can see so much better with 20/20 hindsight ;);

Learn from your mistakes

[winner69]

You position on this one is as changeable as the wind. BP good to see you comments.

Not that often mate

Been a believer for a few years and company performance followed but believe macro environment has changed and things might not be as favourable for HLG in the next year.

Essentially traded these up from about 270 so done OK

Suppose you are out at the moment ...when is the wind going to change for you?

[Beagle]

Percy mentioned noodles analysis on how fx impacts HLG margins

That was his post from July 2015

New CEO now and much less discounting makes that post almost irrelevant in my opinion. This time it really is different as witnessed by margin and dramatic profit expansion in Australia, something that wasn't even on the radar in 2015.

[percy]

New CEO now and much less discounting makes that post almost irrelevant in my opinion. This time it really is different as witnessed by margin and dramatic profit expansion in Australia, something that wasn't even on the radar in 2015.

Really.////////???????????????
Pleased it is different this time.
Petrol prices tell me it is no different......................................... ...........................

[winner69]

Really.////////???????????????
Pleased it is different this time.
Petrol prices tell me it is no different......................................... ...........................

High fuel costs often puts a damper on retail activity eh percy

[percy]

High fuel costs often puts a damper on retail activity eh percy

Yes in number of ways.
Imported stock costs more,and you can not increase certain price points,without killing sales.
Freight and delivery charges increase.
Higher fuel costs mean customers have less to spend.etc etc.

ps.Great for exporters.

[couta1]

You guys are only guessing, you have no idea of what sort of growth is going to come out of the Aussie operation over the next while. PS-Higher fuel costs can also lead to a certain % of the population using alternative methods of transport and shouting themselves a nice piece of kit from HLG lol.

[BIRMANBOY]

Learn from your mistakes Good in theory... problem is that with a complex environment like the share market, most mistakes are characterized by different sets of contributing factors. Good luck LOL.

[Raz]

Not that often mate

Been a believer for a few years and company performance followed but believe macro environment has changed and things might not be as favourable for HLG in the next year.

Essentially traded these up from about 270 so done OK

Suppose you are out at the moment ...when is the wind going to change for you?

No guessing her Couta, that is what changed for me...those in the middle are going to see their disposable incomes squeezed, need to be one of the chosen ones...those teacher and nurses will need their lofty pay hopes realised so someone in the middle has the disposable income to buy.

I have cashed up most NZ shares as a result of micro and macro changes here and as I have not been as watchful of late...

Forex, inherent limitations to hedging, pay parity claims, the living wage for some and I think inflation revisited certain does not help the average battler..only the stars will do well and they do not spend all that much at HLG.

My largest asset, a private business in the US has a windfall gain thanks to Trumps tax cuts so doubling down my energy on that one and partly selling out, nice to see the business revalued :-) They tell me fiscally the tax will have to be reverse in 3-5 years through. That Trump is a winner... ah winner? :-)

[couta1]

Good in theory... problem is that with a complex environment like the share market, most mistakes are characterized by different sets of contributing factors. Good luck LOL. Well said, the share market always has more lessons to teach us, just when we think we have it sussed, we find we haven't.

[winner69]

You guys are only guessing, you have no idea of what sort of growth is going to come out of the Aussie operation over the next while. PS-Higher fuel costs can also lead to a certain % of the population using alternative methods of transport and shouting themselves a nice piece of kit from HLG lol.

Alternative form of transport ....yep cycling to work .....HLG need to sell lycra

[Beagle]

Petrol just up the road here at $1.87 today for 91 Octane on special. HLG trading on a 2019 PE of just 8.7 with excellent growth prospects in Australia.
I think some are getting a little carried away with second guessing that the retail spend is going to fall off the face of a cliff.
I get it that some have reduced or sold and I know the currency has moved a little against HLG but the down ramping is a little OTT in my opinion.
Great company with superb management, superb stock turn, excellent growth prospects in Australia, cash flow a whopping 30 cps last half and only paid 20 cps in divvies so plenty of cash left over to invest in more growth in Glassons Australia.

What's the bet that people will suddenly think its a great company again when we get a bit closer to the next dividend date and / or climb back over 70 cents U.S. lol
Bit sad that so many previously loyal holders seem to be affected by S.A.D. (seasonal affective disorder), the long period between April and December divvies.
Good for me though, if it falls much further I'll get my snout into more.

[peat]

... and wouldnt you rather be investing in a company that has over decades repeatedly succeeded against many business challenges.

Currencies will currency weather will weather and people will buy winter woolies.

Yes I will add presently.

[winner69]

Petrol just up the road here at $1.87 today for 91 Octane on special. HLG trading on a 2019 PE of just 8.7 with excellent growth prospects in Australia.
I think some are getting a little carried away with second guessing that the retail spend is going to fall off the face of a cliff.
I get it that some have reduced or sold and I know the currency has moved a little against HLG but the down ramping is a little OTT in my opinion.
Great company with superb management, superb stock turn, excellent growth prospects in Australia, cash flow a whopping 30 cps last half and only paid 20 cps in divvies so plenty of cash left over to invest in more growth in Glassons Australia.

What's the bet that people will suddenly think its a great company again when we get a bit closer to the next dividend date and / or climb back over 70 cents U.S. lol
Bit sad that so many previously loyal holders seem to be affected by S.A.D. (seasonal affective disorder), the long period between April and December divvies.
Good for me though, if it falls much further I'll get my snout into more.


Thanks for all the compliments mate. Really appreciate them but not suffering from SAD

Yes you are right HLG is a 'great company with superb management, superb stock turn, excellent growth prospects in Australia.....' and they will manage anything that is thrown at them

But management don't set the shareprice do they and all the indications are that it is not strong at the moment ....punters selling for whatever reason that bugs them ....and probably all not SAD either

I'll probably be back one day because HLGisa great company eh

[44wishlists]

Correct, management doesn’t set the share price. But for a company like HLG, which has a low trading volume and majority of the shares fell in the hands of a few, I pay more attention on the disclosure of holding by the management from time to time

[Beagle]

Currency - Last couple of years we have range traded roughly between 69 - 74 cents U.S. I suspect at times when HLG have been forced to confirm purchases in the bottom of the range it maybe have impacted their margins slightly as the possibility exists that they can't recover all of the extra landed cost due to competitive pressure. That said their sales for the last two years have been growing strongly and one shouldn't forget the additional efficiencies they will enjoy now that Glassons Aust has reached critical mass and they have exited the loss making Storm brand which would have absorbed a LOT of management's time and resources previously.

SP has probably been affected by SAD...I think there are a lot of dividend strippers with this company. Been around for a long time and management seem to have a fresh handle on the importance of digital channels including same with their marketing efforts.
Must get some more Vitamin D supplements to ward off the winter blues myself. Hounds are susceptible to SAD.

[RupertBear]

Currency - Last couple of years we have range traded roughly between 69 - 74 cents U.S. I suspect at times when HLG have been forced to confirm purchases in the bottom of the range it maybe have impacted their margins slightly as the possibility exists that they can't recover all of the extra landed cost due to competitive pressure. That said their sales for the last two years have been growing strongly and one shouldn't forget the additional efficiencies they will enjoy now that Glassons Aust has reached critical mass and they have exited the loss making Storm brand which would have absorbed a LOT of management's time and resources previously.

SP has probably been affected by SAD...I think there are a lot of dividend strippers with this company. Been around for a long time and management seem to have a fresh handle on the importance of digital channels including same with their marketing efforts.
Must get some more Vitamin D supplements to ward off the winter blues myself. Hounds are susceptible to SAD.

Bears are also susceptible to SAD :crying: and prone to feeling MAD :mad ;: at times. I am feeling both sad and mad with the SP at the moment! Geepers Couta how do you cope with your XOOOOOS sized holdings when things start going backwards?! :scared:

[Beagle]

Bears are also susceptible to SAD :crying: and prone to feeling MAD :mad ;: at times. I am feeling both sad and mad with the SP at the moment! Geepers Couta how do you cope with your XOOOOOS sized holdings when things start going backwards?! :scared:

Hibernate ? (Sorry mate couldn't resist) :)

[James108]

Bears are also susceptible to SAD :crying: and prone to feeling MAD :mad ;: at times. I am feeling both sad and mad with the SP at the moment! Geepers Couta how do you cope with your XOOOOOS sized holdings when things start going backwards?! :scared:

No offence mate but I really think you should consider if investing in the share market is right for you.

[JeremyALD]

Is it worth asking for Hallensteins to give us quarterly sales updates like Briscoes? Seems like a reasonable request?