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Steve
25-01-2007, 08:33 PM
Another retailer has issued a profit downgrade (http://www.nzx.com/market/market_announcements/by_company?id=142720)

The Directors advise that group sales for the key trading period of December and early January have been equal with last year. This represents an improvement on the trend of -2% advised to the market 11th December 2006.

Total group sales for the period 2 August 2006 to 22 January 2007 are -1% on last year, with same store sales -7%, which reflects a challenging summer season due to unfavorable weather conditions for apparel.

Stock levels are well controlled, and the company is well positioned to move forward into the new winter season.

Net profit after tax for the full 6 months to 1 February 2007 is projected to be in the range $9.8 to $10.0 million, down approximately -10% on the prior year ($10.9 million).

I'm a long term holder of HLG, so not too worried by this announcement as HLG is still a very well run company

TheBossMan
26-01-2007, 06:10 AM
Is their profit margin going down?

Steve
26-01-2007, 06:25 AM
quote:Originally posted by TheBoss

Is their profit margin going down?

Is sales are down 1% and profit is down 10%, then it possibly is. Then again, they say that stock levels have been controlled, so the margin may not be that much down.

I guess we have to wait until the end of march for the announcement...

winner69
26-01-2007, 07:28 AM
quote:Originally posted by Steve


quote:Originally posted by TheBoss

Is their profit margin going down?

Is sales are down 1% and profit is down 10%, then it possibly is. Then again, they say that stock levels have been controlled, so the margin may not be that much down.

I guess we have to wait until the end of march for the announcement...


Just from the ann one would have say that profit margin down from 11% to 10%

What has happened to Gross Margins we will have to wait and see

If there is a concern it has to be the 7% decline in same store sales ..... that's some fall

scamper
26-01-2007, 09:47 AM
currently down to 500, down 12 cents, on a grand volume of 984 shares.
i see that there already buyers at 501 and 502, but the nearest seller is 512.
this stock is sufficiently bouncy to make a good trade stock, but am currently happy as a long-term holder also.

scamper
08-02-2007, 10:24 AM
not sure that the words above are all that sensible!
hlg has had an extraordinary go-nowhere 12 months.
a couple of big bounces outside the range of 490-530.
the div is 6.8%, p/e is 14 which make it an ok hold, but would like to see some steady progress.

Deev8
08-02-2007, 10:52 AM
quote:Originally posted by scamper

the div is 6.8%, p/e is 14 which make it an ok hold ...

The historic P/E and yield are 14 and 6.8%. But looking at numbers rather than ratios, earnings were 36.62c per share and the dividend was 35c per share - a payout ratio of 95%.

I don't place much faith in brokers' forecasts, but those I have seen indicate earnings marginally below last year. After a first half that was down approximately 10% on the prior year, there's an expectation of some recovery built into those forecasts for the second half. It wouldn't take too much of a slip for the dividend to be chopped, and the P/E to move up into the expensive range.

macduffy
18-01-2008, 03:35 PM
Breaking the support level may not be particularly significant in the context of today's market?

Steve
18-01-2008, 07:56 PM
It has closed back at the $3.60 level. We will know next week if it holds...

Hommel
19-01-2008, 06:45 AM
My feeling is that as retailing gets tougher as the housing market recedes over the next year stocks like HLG and HBY and even CAV will become even better buys for the next up-cycle. No hurry to jump in.

Steve
31-05-2008, 06:17 PM
The HBK store in the Meridian Mall in Dunedin appears to be closed, but I'm not sure if they have closed it or are simply re-modelling the store.

Anyone know if HLG is reconsidering their HBK stores?

Snoopy
01-06-2008, 09:09 AM
The HBK store in the Meridian Mall in Dunedin appears to be closed, but I'm not sure if they have closed it or are simply re-modelling the store.

Anyone know if HLG is reconsidering their HBK stores?

Steve, IIRC Hallensteins no longer own the HBK stores. I think they were sold to Pumpkin Patch a few years ago.

SNOOPY

Steve
01-06-2008, 10:56 AM
Steve, IIRC Hallensteins no longer own the HBK stores. I think they were sold to Pumpkin Patch a few years ago.

SNOOPY

I will scroll thru the announcements and post my question on the PPL thread...

scamper
30-10-2008, 09:29 AM
some hilarious (sad) history here.
the historic (I've learned from you Deev8) yield is now 14.89% and the p/e 8.83...
however, there is a 10 cps div coming on 12 Dec, which isn't bad for a 235 c share...

scamper bought these shares back in the mists of antiquity, and while i've occasionally added and shed some, am still a fundamental holder looking at nearly 90% profit.
does anyone else have a similar history? cheers.

Billy Boy
30-10-2008, 03:20 PM
Yo Scamper
I had a history with HLG, held for a number of years.
When the bears became apparent I cleaned out the cupboards so to speak, two months too early but these bear buggers dont post a date.
HLG reluctantly, was amoung them.
I have always felt that they were/are still, a very well managed company,
with a very good retailing model.
I am still watching and waiting as I think they still have some SP downside
yet, due the retail sector in general.
Rebound.....My guess, March 2009 will tell
Cheers BB :)

Wilsta
03-11-2008, 09:31 PM
Okay guys HLG looks pretty good to me. They have already taken a 25% drop in profits and a major hit to the share price. Even so they have a dividend yield of at least 8% p.a. (given nothing really terrible happens to the economy) at their current level of profitability. I believe the price wont fall much further because then that yield gets EVEN better! Imagine the yield when the company returns to its normal profitability in years to come? Perhaps near 20% if bought now. Imagine the share price too. It has no long term debt either, another plus in terms of risk in this current environment. I'm not a trader, so I dont try and pick bottoms, just look for good deals.

Okay now here is the REAL sweetener ... all speculation however ... my speculation too ... ever heard of PREMIER INVESTMENTS LIMITED??? Well they have recently bought Just Group (JayJays, Just Jeans, Portmans etc). They still have $300m cash left to invest in (my guess) retail! Consider now that HLG is worth $150m ... and therefore well within the price range. Consider also that HLG has no long term debt ... making it even more attractive a target. Its a similar company to the Just Group (synergies perhaps???) and HLG has had its share price halve over recent months. Sources say that Premier is actively monitoring a number of opportunities. Hmmmm, any thoughts folks? Anyone wanting to hire me as their analyst??? LOL.

Also my DCF of HLG values the company at $2.40ish given a 25% drop in 2009 sales and a 11% drop in 2010 sales followed by 3 years of recovery at 5% growth with a terminal growth rate of 3% thereafter. Very conservative an approach (just incase things get that ugly). Okay now my disclaimer ... I dont do this kind of thing for a living, so do your own homework!!! I also have seen many sell recommendations on this stock .. not sure hold long they have been on for.

Lizard
04-11-2008, 06:46 AM
Hi Wilsta, nice first post!

I haven't followed HLG closely for some time. They appear to have positioned themselves fairly defensively. However, it pays to err strongly on the side of caution with retail in times of economic slowdown. Retail is a high fixed cost business, so a small change in sales becomes a significant change in profits.

The recent fall in profit was actually more attributable to increased fixed costs than reduced revenue (rents rated a mention, but it is likely that staff costs also increased with changes to minimum wage, holiday entitlements and kiwisaver). These pressures will not revert easily, although eventually the survivor companies may be able to price them in.

At a variable cost level, HLG is also likely to be experiencing exchange rate pressure on imported stock which may erode gross margins.

When you did your DCF, did you mean a fall in sales or a fall in profits of 25%/11%? I estimate that if sales dropped by 25%, they would make a loss of around $4m and a further 11% would have them on a loss of about $12m. However, these are fairly extreme falls in sales, so I am guessing you meant earnings. A 25% fall in 2009 earnings would probably be achieved by around a 10% fall in sales.

In a significant slowdown, it can cost money for retailers to stay in business. Quite often this sets the floor for a new generation of retailer to emerge. While I think HLG is well managed and well positioned, it may be better to wait until you notice a significant number or empty shops at the mall or hear "shock" news of a big retail name or two going under.

scamper
04-11-2008, 08:41 AM
welcome wilsta, interesting thoughts you have.
take care with the generalisations though.
hlg's price hasn't really halved in recent months -- it was 480 in july last year, and has actually held up very well over the last few months, that is, since july this year.
it was 240 at the end of june, having suffered a 3-month slide from 400 at the beginning of april.
could it be said that the global turmoil of the last 3 months hasn't really affected it at all? cheers, scamper.

Wilsta
04-11-2008, 10:01 PM
Ah yes I did mean sales, just never mentioned my other assumptions:
- I expect a semi-significant staff layoff,
- I also expect a reduction in other variable selling/other expenses e.g. advertising maybe?? but on an aggregate level. Whether they make a loss or profit in 2009/2010 doesnt have terribly much weight in my DCF. The terminal value is where its at. I probably should have assumed higher COGS and lower gross margin due to exchange rate pressures .. but did not. I think they use forward contracts on currency which may help cushion them a little. I should mention that I have bought HLG at $2.50 .. not really worried if it falls short term (actually I'm hoping it will to get more) but don't like to pick a bottom and felt I had to get in there sooner rather than later just so I have some.

Lizard
05-11-2008, 06:40 AM
Thanks Wilsta. I have used DCF's in investment for the last 10 years and continue to do so. In my experience, waiting 3+ years through low or negative earnings is not usually worthwhile. As a rough rule, the share price does not sustain a move against the direction of earnings change in the next 12 months.

In the current market, I can find many companies trading at around half my DCF - this is very unusual. When I started using DCF, I used to buy at around 67% of valuation and sell at 95%. By the height of the boom, I was having to buy at around 95% and sell at 130% (although there were other factors I was giving more weight to by then).

Wilsta
05-11-2008, 06:55 AM
I agree with you Lizard .. the DCF I mentioned is a worst case scenario ... I don't actually think it will get quite that bad for HLG .. maybe for other retailers / consumer discretionary ...

Steve
01-07-2009, 06:34 PM
I'm disappointed that the Hallensteins store in Dunedin is having a 'buy get another one cheaper' sale on Hoodies.

It can only encourage the undesirable types to stock up in their clothing of choice...

Toulouse - Luzern
08-09-2009, 01:12 PM
Hi
HLG spikes $1.02...

COLIN
08-09-2009, 01:22 PM
Hi
HLG spikes $1.02...
Someone obviously pushed the wrong button - I'm sure they meant to buy at 282, not 382. Broker should have queried.

Lawso
08-09-2009, 06:21 PM
I think you're right, Colin. But Teletext was showing 382 for much of the day and never any explanation, correction or apology. You'd think someone would have queried it before posting.

Sideshow Bob
08-09-2009, 07:05 PM
I would say Lawso that most people look at the internet prices these days.

Teletext is pretty old skool!!

Billy Boy
10-09-2009, 12:55 PM
Credit card sales show signs of movement upwards....
Boppers beginning to buy again....
Trendies getting backinto things .....
Australia not doing so bad.....
If the Ski Fields are anything to go by, then the
younger generation are getting itchy and spending.
HLG are onto it. & I am getting back in .
Cheers BB :)

Billy Boy
09-01-2010, 09:40 AM
Nice rise to 340 cents
then 10c drop Friday !!
Good example of traders at work ?
BB

macduffy
09-01-2010, 11:12 AM
Nice rise to 340 cents
then 10c drop Friday !!
Good example of traders at work ?
BB

Or it could be just the thin January trade.

Only 1,000 shares traded yesterday.

Billy Boy
09-01-2010, 11:51 AM
Or it could be just the thin January trade.

Only 1,000 shares traded yesterday.

Yep, could be, but on a Friday ???
Lets see next week.
BB:)

Silverlight
29-01-2010, 08:09 AM
TRADING UPDATE, PROFIT GUIDANCE AND DIVIDEND DECLARATION

The Company advises that sales for the key trading months of December and January to date have been + 10.7% on the prior year.

Sales for the first half of the financial year from 2 August 2009 to 24 January 2010 are +6.7% on the prior year.

Chairman of Directors Warren Bell commented “sales results in both New Zealand and Australia have been similar. We have experienced consistent demand from our customers to our offer during this key trading period, and we have been able to protect and grow our margin. Strong trading over this period has ensured our stocks are at very good levels, and we are well positioned to tackle the new winter season.”

Net profit after tax for the full six months ended 1 February 2010 is projected to be in the range $8.1 million to $8.4 million, a 50% increase on the prior year.

A full six month release will be provided to the NZX on March 25th 2010.

Dividend

The directors have declared an interim dividend of 14 cents per share, (prior year 10 cents) payable on 26th March 2010. Entitlement date is 19th March 2010. The interim dividend has been declared early to allow the company to fully utilise imputation credits at 33 cents prior to 31 March 2010.

7 cents of the dividend will have imputation credits at 33 cents, and the balance at 30 cents. In addition a supplementary dividend of 2.4706 cents per share will be paid to shareholders who are non resident for New Zealand tax purposes.

Lizard
07-08-2010, 08:46 AM
Good update yesterday. HLG been a strong performer - makes sense if you think about it. The customer base (particularly for Glassons) is probably one that is less affected by changes in economic conditions. And since the clothes aren't built to last much beyond one season, the customers keep coming back. Plus some from higher end buyers drop down a notch. That along with more competitive supply prices being offered out of Asia.

Longer term, clothing is one category that is more difficult for retailers to take on-line successfully. (This seems to me to be something that BGR should be worrying about).

$3.82 not excessively cheap, but still very reasonable value for a long term hold in a company with no debt, good yield and a proven record.

Billy Boy
07-08-2010, 09:01 AM
$3.82 not excessively cheap, but still very reasonable value for a long term hold in a company with no debt, good yield and a proven record.

And very good management....

Lizard
08-12-2010, 07:09 AM
According to HLG, retail demand has fallen back to be flat during the August to November period.

According to the local fashion critic (my 14 yr old daughter), the Glassons designs weren't up to scratch in August and are "still recovering".

percy
08-12-2010, 08:03 AM
Your daughter would be right on the money.!!!! Any retailer trying for turnover this Christmas will give away margin.
Follow what your daughter and her friends are buying,your will pick up trends before any analyst!!! May cost you in pocket money,but will safeguard capital.!!!!
Remember your daughter is your friend with inside information.!!!

Lizard
28-03-2012, 03:28 PM
Have we really not talked about HLG since 2010?

Anyway, I thought the result today was good, even though well-predicted. The mention of continuing to sell 7% ahead of last year in the start of second half plus comments suggesting that the Directors think there is more to be squeezed from the Australian operations are both positive for future profit growth. Combined with the high cash (no debt) and growing/sustainable dividend, I am surprised this has not risen further than the $4.02 it sits at.

darksentinel
28-03-2012, 04:30 PM
Have we really not talked about HLG since 2010?

Anyway, I thought the result today was good, even though well-predicted. The mention of continuing to sell 7% ahead of last year in the start of second half plus comments suggesting that the Directors think there is more to be squeezed from the Australian operations are both positive for future profit growth. Combined with the high cash (no debt) and growing/sustainable dividend, I am surprised this has not risen further than the $4.02 it sits at.

Been a personal favourite for a while from fundamentals, but I know nothing about the industry.

Lizard
28-03-2012, 10:07 PM
Hi David,

I noticed one of the major brokers started taking an interest again mid-March and wouldn't be surprised to see them give it a bit of a nudge tomorrow, depending on whether the research team decides to follow up the result with a full Research Note.

However, given the result was well-flagged (although top end of range), it will depend on them finding the courage to believe there is still growth to be gotten at the NPAT line for 2013/2014... possibly something they'll want to take the slow and steady approach on at this point.

Still, unless HLG change their tune, I think they will find that courage over the next 6 months.

Snoopy
27-06-2012, 02:26 PM
I try to follow a little bit of Warren Buffet's investment philosophy. And that is to invest in good businesses with a great management team that are well run. Yes HLG are in retail, but they're damn good at it. In fact they are probably the best clothing retailer in New Zealand. They know what they are doing and that is evidenced by their consistently good returns over the years, in spite of the difficult economy. In my view that performance gives them another thing that Warren Buffet likes, a competitive advantage.


Here is my quick analysis on HLG, based on averaging the last five years worth of dividends.

-----------



2012F 14.5cps 17cps


201114.0cps17.0cps


201014.0cps17.0cps


200910.0cps11.0cps


200810.0cps17.0cps



-------

Average annual dividend per share 28.3cps.

If we consider a dividend yield over the business cycle of 8% being fair, then this implies a fair value share price of:

28.3c/0.08= $5.05

Realistic? What do you think?

SNOOPY

Lizard
27-06-2012, 02:46 PM
That seems pretty tough to consider 2008-2012 as a full business cycle - implies that 2010-2012 (being highest dividend years) is top of the cycle earnings?

Billy Boy
27-06-2012, 03:01 PM
In normal times ...YES !
But these arn't normal times.
If Europe goes further into the brown stuff then NZ and HLG
will follow.
They are far to well managed to go under, but their div could suffer.
Oz is going through a bad patch at the moment and this might impact.
So your Q. 28.3c/0.08= $5.05.
Should be, but wont get there.
$4.50 tops.... I recon
BB

Billy Boy
27-06-2012, 03:04 PM
Just rang a friend
Ski season has just started and already a lot of discounting.
BB

Snoopy
27-06-2012, 03:13 PM
That seems pretty tough to consider 2008-2012 as a full business cycle - implies that 2010-2012 (being highest dividend years) is top of the cycle earnings?


I didn't plan it that way but you are right Lizard. The method does assume 2010-2012 is the top of the business cycle.
I picked 2008-2012 as encompassing all of the years since the GFC and hence the fairly reflecting 'new' retail environment.

In a nutshell, the method I have used assumes a 'grand plan static retail sales universe' in which NZ retailers battle the vagaries of the business cycle.

Given the long term performance of HLG, quite good in NZ, and what appears to be some success in Australia, this method is possibly pessimistic on the medium term prospects of HLG. Perhaps you might think of $5.05 as a 'lower bound' of fair value?

Countering that is the 'middle market', 'discretionary' and 'fashion edge' to the HLG business. To my way of thinking those three factors should imply a higher yield rate, maybe 9%, not the 8% I was assuming with my similar analysis on the Warehouse? I guess I am saying that in tough times I can see the WINZ office handing out Warehouse vouchers, but Glasson's vouchers? Probably not.

In summary, maybe I should bump up my expected yield by one point but then reduce it again by one point to account for the Australian growth. That brings me back to where I started: an 8% yield and a $5.05 valuation. All said from the point of view of the 'income investor' of course.

SNOOPY

Snoopy
27-06-2012, 03:15 PM
Just rang a friend
Ski season has just started and already a lot of discounting.
BB

Do HLG do ski gear?

SNOOPY

Billy Boy
27-06-2012, 03:21 PM
Do HLG do ski gear?

SNOOPY
Yep
Havent heard how well they did in selling their summer stock.
But no doubt they will have their winter stock on hand now
BB

CJ
27-06-2012, 03:38 PM
Do HLG do ski gear?I wouldn't have though Skiers were HGL target market.

Interesting to see the valuation coming in above share price, compared to the likes of WHS (below) and RBD (about right). Apart from that one drop in 2009, they are fairly safe. From memory they have a very conservative balance sheet (ie. low or no debt) or have they done something about that now?

Billy Boy
27-06-2012, 03:45 PM
I wouldn't have though Skiers were HGL target market.

?
No not as such... I might have misslead in previous post sorry
They do SKi Gear in the "Scott Base range"
This does not include Goggles, Boots, Pants.etc
But does include Jackets, underlay's, socks etc...
BB

CJ
27-06-2012, 04:11 PM
No not as such... I might have misslead in previous post sorry
They do SKi Gear in the "Scott Base range"
This does not include Goggles, Boots, Pants.etc
But does include Jackets, underlay's, socks etc...
BBMy point is Skier are usually "rick pricks" to borrow Labour's term who wouldn't be seen dead in Hallenstien clothing. At least the Auckland ones who drive down to the Whakapapa in their big 4WD and BMW are.

Billy Boy
28-06-2012, 09:25 AM
My point is Skier are usually "rick pricks" to borrow Labour's term who wouldn't be seen dead in Hallenstien clothing. At least the Auckland ones who drive down to the Whakapapa in their big 4WD and BMW are.

Right...
I dont think HLG target them "Rich Pricks" very much at all, anytime.
they go for the young rising set, with more of the discreationary dosh.
Their niffty short add's on TV etc dont annoy or yell. (Very effective.)
They are not aimed at the RP's. We notice (in Q.town) that these "RP's"
are generally just "P's" or Would be's if they Could be's (as we call them)
and they have no real dosh. Just a lot of show, wind and trouble.
I have just returned from Downtown Q,town. HLG had a nice display of
what I would call After Skiing Attire. the sort of stuff you would wear
when roaming the town at night etc. Not expensive at all.
And the Shop were,nt empty !! at all.
I,m soon off to Coronet Peak after lunch (in my 4 Year old Ski Gear).
The day, the snow, just great. No crowd, no wind, No "rp's" yet !!
A tip 4 u CJ.....
Never, Never trust TV1 or TV3 weather reports or forecasts for the Lakes District.
cheers BB

Jay
24-09-2012, 02:36 PM
Big Rise so far today - up 20c and thru the last resistance of around 4.60 on slighlty above average recent volume- to think I was keeping a close eye on them thinking that the price was heading down again!

Jay
24-09-2012, 08:34 PM
Couldn't be insiders at play could it, off course not!
Thought I read Aus retail overall was still not going that well, maybe they are, here and there.

winner69
26-09-2012, 09:54 AM
Understand the needs of your customers and a lot of things right and the rewards will come you way ......well done HLG in spite of a mounted market so they say

Be interesting to compare with the comments PPG make tomorrow

Jay
26-09-2012, 12:10 PM
I'm not complaining, up another 9 cents so far today
But yes will be interesting to compare

percy
26-09-2012, 07:25 PM
Well done HLG.A great result.

gv1
26-04-2013, 12:53 PM
The Directors advise that the unaudited net profit after ta x for the
six months ended 1 February 2013 was $10.371 million, an increase
of 14.9 % over the prior corresponding period ($9.028 million).
Total comprehensive income for the period after fair value
adjustments was $10.339 million ($9.764 million). Group sales
for the 6 months ended 1 February 2013 were $115.73 million,
an increase of 6.6% over the prior year ($108.57 million).

Jay
26-04-2013, 02:48 PM
WOW :eek2:

Indeed!!!!

False Profit
13-06-2013, 10:54 AM
Just taken the plunge now they issued the statement. Price dropped by 8.22% and now gone to 6% drop. Looks like a bit of a buy on the rise.

winner69
15-06-2013, 04:16 PM
WOW :eek2:

That was a WOW for the 15% NPAT growth for H1 this year

What do we say when H2 is going to be 30% down

Things mudt be getting tough again in retail

percy
15-06-2013, 04:27 PM
That was a WOW for the 15% NPAT growth for H1 this year

What do we say when H2 is going to be 30% down

Things mudt be getting tough again in retail

NO surprises there>!!!!!!! Very tough !!! The high overheads remain.!

percy
15-06-2013, 04:57 PM
If its tough for Hallensteins Glassons, then imagine what its like for mid ranked Pumpkin Patch and minnow Postie Plus...

The word "impossible" comes to mind.!!!

Billy Boy
17-06-2013, 11:50 AM
retail across the ditch not looking good.
Aust. struggling consumer wise !!
NZ Inc doing a lot better..
check out WRT:ASX
BB
Cud B good buying for Kiwi's in ozzy very soon

winner69
17-06-2013, 12:12 PM
Westpac Mcd something Consumer Confidence Index in NZ hits multi year high

As ny nate Dominik says People are shifting out of saving mode and into spending mode," ..... "The survey also chimes with our long-held view that low interest rates and a rising housing market would boost spending."

percy
17-06-2013, 12:23 PM
Westpac Mcd something Consumer Confidence Index in NZ hits multi year high

As ny nate Dominik says People are shifting out of saving mode and into spending mode," ..... "The survey also chimes with our long-held view that low interest rates and a rising housing market would boost spending."

Yeah Right.!!!
Dominik needs to spend an hour behind the cash register at any retail store before he opens his mouth!!!

winner69
26-09-2013, 08:23 AM
Even though well signalled mot such a great result for HLG, esp when compared to the recent Kathmandu one

Still essentially a Hallensteins and Glassons NZ business - that's where the money is made - and stuff all contribution from Australia and Storm

Looking forward this is a bit of a worry .... (quote)The first 7 weeks of the New Year have been difficult with group sales down on last year -9%. While this period does not have a significant impact on earnings for the future period, it does demonstrate how competitive the environment is at present. .... esp after a poor H2 compared to H1 as well

boofters
26-09-2013, 09:31 AM
I feel they are under exteme pressure from online retailers which is only going to worsen. Once a punter receives 1 purchase of the right size their trust builds. NZSale/OZSale are in the middle of huge growth.
http://www.ragtrader.com.au/news/ozsale-strikes-millions

CJ
26-09-2013, 09:49 AM
Maybe the need to bring the Bunny's back across - I do wonder if anyone who attended that party would ever wear a Hallenstiens suit. Likewise didn't they do a Will.I.am private concert.

luigi
11-10-2013, 11:57 AM
Anyone attend the opening day for the new flagship Wellington store yesterday? As a customer/shareholder I was quite impressed.

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/9269468/Glassons-baby-draws-opening-crowds

stoploss
30-10-2013, 07:33 PM
Anyone attend the opening day for the new flagship Wellington store yesterday? As a customer/shareholder I was quite impressed.

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/9269468/Glassons-baby-draws-opening-crowds

mmm just checked out the Visa statement for the month, it seems this new store was to my wife's liking. On the positive side cheaper than Trelise Cooper , will be keeping an eye on this always good to hedge up the risk !!!!!

boofters
15-11-2013, 03:22 PM
I feel they are under exteme pressure from online retailers which is only going to worsen. Once a punter receives 1 purchase of the right size their trust builds. NZSale/OZSale are in the middle of huge growth.
http://www.ragtrader.com.au/news/ozsale-strikes-millions


I hate to say I told you so ... well not really I love it :-)...

percy
15-11-2013, 04:29 PM
That is some down grade.

noodles
15-11-2013, 05:40 PM
That is some down grade.
yes, you would wonder if that dividend will hold.

I admit to having shopped at Hallensteins in the past. I could easily spend $200 (4-5 items of clothing). Last time I walked in, I couldn't find anything I liked. Spent $0. I felt they had narrowed their fashion to a specific demographic (much younger).

percy
15-11-2013, 06:52 PM
yes, you would wonder if that dividend will hold.

I admit to having shopped at Hallensteins in the past. I could easily spend $200 (4-5 items of clothing). Last time I walked in, I couldn't find anything I liked. Spent $0. I felt they had narrowed their fashion to a specific demographic (much younger).

I don't follow closely,so may be well off the mark,but I thought they paid out all their profit in dividends,in which case the divie will not hold.
With Hallensteins,who I regard as top retailers, finding the rag trade hard/soft I wonder how the not so good retailers are trading?
I know Postie are having difficulties,but much of that is of their own making.

big_rig
11-12-2013, 10:08 AM
I see the price of this stock now has a 3 in front of it instead of a 4 or a 5...hopefully plenty of people buy their Christmas presents at HLG this year! :(

macduffy
11-12-2013, 01:57 PM
HLG were a top retailer in past years but I wonder about them these days. Where does their (former) demographic shop for clothes now?

stoploss
11-12-2013, 02:17 PM
Still shopping there for semi casual stuff. Spent quite a bit as well I must say! have noticed a marked decline in quality and breadth of products though...

Have to disagree here. I have two teenage daughters and they have purchased quite a bit of clobber here recently. Mum has had a go at a couple of things as well, they love the new store design in Wellington as well as the clothes. This shopping will be at the expense of more expensive outlets.
The guys at work tell me their sons and friends have all loaded up on dinner suits from them as well, very reasonable combo available aparently for leavers balls etc.....
DISC: None held

Scottman
11-12-2013, 02:17 PM
So many clothing competitors out there days. I'm a retailer & our main street is highly geared towards clothes and females.

winner69
13-12-2013, 09:36 AM
Pretty gloomy comments at the ASM .....even 20% drop in earnings might be a optimistic view

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11171447

boofters
13-12-2013, 11:24 AM
Pretty gloomy comments at the ASM .....even 20% drop in earnings might be a optimistic view

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11171447

Biggest issue is they dont have any brands IMO.

I will dance nude if HLG is not below $3 by end of Feb.

macduffy
13-12-2013, 12:14 PM
Biggest issue is they dont have any brands IMO.

I will dance nude if HLG is not below $3 by end of Feb.

Please, don't.

:ohmy:

winner69
16-01-2014, 07:58 AM
So the forecast 20% decline (under pressure it was) of a month ago has turned into a 39% decline in reality

December sales were rather munted weren't they

All at a time when the headlines boom out . Retail card spending climbs . Up 7.5% in December they were .......but not at HLG

Must have lost the plot

Hawkeye
16-01-2014, 08:36 AM
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11187425

boofters
16-01-2014, 09:16 AM
Please, don't.

:ohmy:


I think we're all safe, mkt cap currently at 250 m?? This could/should halve IMO, they'll be lucky to make 10m for the year and this is in a market being torn apart by online.

Billy Boy
16-01-2014, 09:30 AM
I think we're all safe, mkt cap currently at 250 m?? This could/should halve IMO, they'll be lucky to make 10m for the year and this is in a market being torn apart by online.
My golfing friend bought a set of golf clubs on line from the States. Very good brand (so Im Told). They cost
$900.00nz. Had them shipped in three shipments so as to avoid import duties. Had the set within a month.
BB

In4a$
16-01-2014, 09:35 AM
So the forecast 20% decline (under pressure it was) of a month ago has turned into a 39% decline in reality

December sales were rather munted weren't they

All at a time when the headlines boom out . Retail card spending climbs . Up 7.5% in December they were .......but not at HLG

Must have lost the plot
I was checking out there Botany and Manukau stores last weekend, lots of $10 or $20 specials, I used to think of them as a high end store, will have to sell a lot at $10, in whats a competive price bracket to get the sales and profits up. Plus the items on sale looked just the same as the ones in Farmers IMO
Disc: Been a long time and happy holder recieving good Div payments, sold down in Aug, now think I'll pull out altogether, not confident they will make the profits they used to.

Hawkeye
16-01-2014, 09:53 AM
I too have held HLG in the past(not currently) and are impressed by the div on offer. Given the latest news to you think the new price to div will remain the same? as in half the share price half the div offered? and do the expert investors out there think that their shareprice will recover over time?

Billy Boy
16-01-2014, 10:35 AM
I too have held HLG in the past(not currently) and are impressed by the div on offer. Given the latest news to you think the new price to div will remain the same? as in half the share price half the div offered? and do the expert investors out there think that their shareprice will recover over time?
oh yes.....
They are a very well managed coy.
The authorities have gotta start looking at On Line Trading. Tax wise, GST, etc.
The retail sector is suffering, and this relates to loss of GST, Jobs, Tax. so on.
There are lots of little "TradeMe" type websites jumping up everywhere.
BB

Billy Boy
16-01-2014, 10:39 AM
Just a thought...
Maybe the Lab/Greens will also buyout "TradeMe".....:D

macduffy
16-01-2014, 11:45 AM
I was checking out there Botany and Manukau stores last weekend, lots of $10 or $20 specials, I used to think of them as a high end store, will have to sell a lot at $10, in whats a competive price bracket to get the sales and profits up. Plus the items on sale looked just the same as the ones in Farmers IMO
Disc: Been a long time and happy holder recieving good Div payments, sold down in Aug, now think I'll pull out altogether, not confident they will make the profits they used to.

I think that HLG management would be flattered to be thought of as a "high end store". More "value for money" I'd have thought?

:mellow:

No, I'm not a holder.

winner69
16-01-2014, 01:06 PM
oh yes.....
They are a very well managed coy.
The authorities have gotta start looking at On Line Trading. Tax wise, GST, etc.
The retail sector is suffering, and this relates to loss of GST, Jobs, Tax. so on.
There are lots of little "TradeMe" type websites jumping up everywhere.
BB

Even Hallensteins have one of them TradeMe type websites
http://www.trademe.co.nz/stores/hallensteins

or a couple

http://www.trademe.co.nz/stores/glassons

boofters
10-02-2014, 10:12 AM
Please, don't.

:ohmy:

2.98 we are all safe !!
Mental Note to Self : "Having predicted the future once does not make me anymore likely to do it again!"

BlackPeter
12-03-2014, 08:56 PM
PEB's gain - HLG's pain:

https://www.nzx.com/regulators/NZXO/announcements/248111

kicked out of the NZX50 - fasten seatbelts for another share price drop?

On the other hand - if it drops deep enough, than there might be some buying opportunities we otherwise wouldn't have had ...

discl: not (yet?) holding;

boofters
29-03-2014, 11:30 AM
A couple of examples of why HLG needs to diversify into new channels or its value will continue to slide.

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11228425

winner69
29-03-2014, 12:19 PM
A couple of examples of why HLG needs to diversify into new channels or its value will continue to slide.

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11228425

That's quite an amazing effort by that dude ..... seems to be doing very well and probably can only get bigger.

Others might be inspired to do the same ..... even less sales for Hallensteins


Ordered one of their $46 blazers ..... have to wait a while while the man in China makes it but lets see what its like when it arrives .... cool enough for a ahretraders get together?

False Profit
31-03-2014, 06:01 AM
I was checking out there Botany and Manukau stores last weekend, lots of $10 or $20 specials, I used to think of them as a high end store, will have to sell a lot at $10, in whats a competive price bracket to get the sales and profits up. Plus the items on sale looked just the same as the ones in Farmers IMO
Disc: Been a long time and happy holder recieving good Div payments, sold down in Aug, now think I'll pull out altogether, not confident they will make the profits they used to.

"high end store" Hallensteins? Really?

winner69
31-03-2014, 07:25 AM
"high end store" Hallensteins? Really?

Knew it was you I saw in 3 WISE MEN the other day stocking up on the shirts on 'special' at 100 bucks each

False Profit
31-03-2014, 08:29 AM
Knew it was you I saw in 3 WISE MEN the other day stocking up on the shirts on 'special' at 100 bucks each

$100 each? I'm hurt. I never pay less than $250 a shirt and need a certificate of authenticity to prove the buttons were sewn on by Heidi Klum herself.

boofters
23-05-2014, 08:28 PM
$100 each? I'm hurt. I never pay less than $250 a shirt and need a certificate of authenticity to prove the buttons were sewn on by Heidi Klum herself.

another nail in a coffin...similar to the risks BGR shareholders have..we could call it IKEA01

http://www.3news.co.nz/Topshop-set-for-major-NZ-expansion/tabid/423/articleID/344630/Default.aspx

winner69
18-08-2014, 08:13 AM
So things didn't pick up when it got colder .....bloody consumers made sales go backwards. And margins seem to be down.

Today -

Performance for the second half of the year had shown some improvement on the first half results, but momentum had been insufficient to regain ground lost in the first half of the year.
Second half sales were -2% on the prior corresponding period, with projected earnings -5% on pcp.



Bit worse than a few months ago -

The company advises that despite the warm winter in Australasia sales and margin for the group for the period 2 February to 22 June 2014 have remained marginally ahead of the prior corresponding period. June sales are currently tracking +2% on last year. Inventory levels remain well controlled
Profit for the winter 2014 season is currently projected to be similar to winter 2013.

Beagle
18-08-2014, 08:19 AM
Well we can ignore that reduced profit because when you normalise it for normal weather, more normal interest rates e.t.c. profit would be steady :)...i.e.do a Sky City

percy
18-08-2014, 08:55 AM
Bit off topic,but with KMD and BRG being the only retailers doing well, I note neither of them are in Malls.
Will we see Malls reduce their rents so their retailers can compete and survive? and if so, will the markets realise lower rents mean lower share prices as Mall capital valuations reduce?
I expect HLG and other retailers to invest more in their on line offerrings.

Jay
18-08-2014, 09:31 AM
Agree percy, however a few of the bigger malls I regularly go in (following my wife I may add) spaces on the whole do not seem to stay vacant for long, however I note was in St Lukes recently (actually in this case was we were taking the children to the movies)and a medium sized space has been vacant for awhile now - was a $2 type of shop, there is another much larger one in close proximity. Both had/have a frontage to an entrance from the car park.

Whether , some think that "... if I can get into the mall, plenty of shoppers, it will be easy money..." only to find out something different.

Ezybuy seem to be able to Ok with mainly online only.

percy
18-08-2014, 10:52 AM
Agree percy, however a few of the bigger malls I regularly go in (following my wife I may add) spaces on the whole do not seem to stay vacant for long, however I note was in St Lukes recently (actually in this case was we were taking the children to the movies)and a medium sized space has been vacant for awhile now - was a $2 type of shop, there is another much larger one in close proximity. Both had/have a frontage to an entrance from the car park.

Whether , some think that "... if I can get into the mall, plenty of shoppers, it will be easy money..." only to find out something different.

Ezybuy seem to be able to Ok with mainly online only.

Yes there is always some keen punter who opens a shop.
Yet there are fewer and fewer decent stores.More and more "junk"and "rubbish"stores. Even the food court stores appear to be under pressure from the likes of McDonalds.
Last Monday morning my wife ordered clothes on line from Ezibuy and we were most impressed that they arrived on Tuesday morning.Fantastic service.

Sideshow Bob
22-12-2014, 01:43 PM
Ventured into Hallensteins Dunedin today for the first time in hmmmm, perhaps 10 years? Looking for a pair of shorts - more in hope than expectation of the summer ahead.

The place was pumping, and quite busy. When I first entered there was a queue at the till, but soon disappeared. Service I got was friendly, helpful and served fast.

Been to Rodd & Gun, Country Road, Barkers, Arthur Barnetts and Mechano before Hallensteins. Some had sales on, but all were $90 - $130 per pair, with Mechano get the 2nd half price, and R&G 30% off.

Settled on 2 pairs from Hallensteins on promo for $60, normally $50 each. Reasonable quality, not quite as dressy as others, but they are shorts after all.

Would definitely go back, but am normally a bit of a brands type of guy - or probably more accurately that perception of quality and not being a cheap ass. They also had fast paced dance type music on. Think would keep the staff going all day!!

Beagle
22-12-2014, 02:34 PM
Ventured into Hallensteins Dunedin today for the first time in hmmmm, perhaps 10 years? Looking for a pair of shorts - more in hope than expectation of the summer ahead.

The place was pumping, and quite busy. When I first entered there was a queue at the till, but soon disappeared. Service I got was friendly, helpful and served fast.

Been to Rodd & Gun, Country Road, Barkers, Arthur Barnetts and Mechano before Hallensteins. Some had sales on, but all were $90 - $130 per pair, with Mechano get the 2nd half price, and R&G 30% off.

Settled on 2 pairs from Hallensteins on promo for $60, normally $50 each. Reasonable quality, not quite as dressy as others, but they are shorts after all.

Would definitely go back, but am normally a bit of a brands type of guy - or probably more accurately that perception of quality and not being a cheap ass. They also had fast paced dance type music on. Think would keep the staff going all day!!

You Sir are a classic case in point of what I was just taking about on the KMD thread. People starting to question whether the big name brand premium is worth the money and its not just in clothing either.

percy
22-12-2014, 03:19 PM
Ventured into Hallensteins Dunedin today for the first time in hmmmm, perhaps 10 years? Looking for a pair of shorts - more in hope than expectation of the summer ahead.

The place was pumping, and quite busy. When I first entered there was a queue at the till, but soon disappeared. Service I got was friendly, helpful and served fast.

Been to Rodd & Gun, Country Road, Barkers, Arthur Barnetts and Mechano before Hallensteins. Some had sales on, but all were $90 - $130 per pair, with Mechano get the 2nd half price, and R&G 30% off.

Settled on 2 pairs from Hallensteins on promo for $60, normally $50 each. Reasonable quality, not quite as dressy as others, but they are shorts after all.

Would definitely go back, but am normally a bit of a brands type of guy - or probably more accurately that perception of quality and not being a cheap ass. They also had fast paced dance type music on. Think would keep the staff going all day!!

My dress "Heritage 1909" shorts came with two deep side pockets and two back pockets with buttons.
Very flash.
But what I enjoyed most was the price tag.$25.00 from Postie Plus.!!!

Bobdn
22-12-2014, 03:41 PM
Percy, what is it with you and Postie Plus. Every retail related thread has you pimping them. Are you a big Postie Plus investor?

percy
22-12-2014, 04:25 PM
Percy, what is it with you and Postie Plus. Every retail related thread has you pimping them. Are you a big Postie Plus investor?

I was once foolish enough to buy shares in Postie Plus.Held them just after Ron Boskill was appointed CEO.Took me over a year to realise what he said he would do,he could not do.I therefore sold.Think I brought at $1.00 and sold at 90 cents.
On various "The King buys Postie Plus" threads I warned sharetraders of the dangers of buying Postie Plus.I was proved right as they went into liquidation and were sold to a South African company.
However I still need to buy clothing.Casual trousers, both longs and shorts, prove to be difficult for me to buy.They do not have a back pocket for my wallet.That is why I was so excited to find what I wanted in a pair of shorts from Postie Plus.

Bobdn
22-12-2014, 06:29 PM
Cool. That was a great escape you made from Postie Plus.

Sideshow Bob
22-12-2014, 07:51 PM
You Sir are a classic case in point of what I was just taking about on the KMD thread. People starting to question whether the big name brand premium is worth the money and its not just in clothing either.

Haven't been reading the KMD thread, but you definitely won't catch me in one of their stores! Overpriced crap - double the price and then sell it out at half price.

Is that the right answer???

I go for value. Brand/quality at the right price!

dagoldtoof
28-12-2014, 06:25 AM
Used HLG for Trade Me online shopping, quick delivery, and a free delivery special, nice product..item was modelled, quite impressed...Dont own any HLG but seriously tempted...

bunter
16-01-2015, 03:09 PM
HLG is updating the market on December and YTD sales shortly.

August - Nov sales up 2% on 2013
NZ Dec retail card spending on apparel up 1% on Dec 2013.
It was a cold December.

Any guesses? 2% rise I'm guessing, 5% profit increase for the YE 1/2/15, and a steady share price.

Is the share poxed, like WHS, KMD, and PPL OK like BGR, or in-between?

Keen to hear others' thoughts.

bunter
16-01-2015, 03:17 PM
6674

... NZ retail company performance over the past 12 months, relative ot the NZ50.

Prices are dividend adjusted, so the NZ50 comparison is like-for-like.

000831
19-01-2015, 10:17 AM
FORECAST: HLG: December 2015 Trading update

19 January
2015

HALLENSTEIN GLASSON HOLDINGS LIMITED

December Trading
Update

The company advises that sales over the key Christmas trading
period have
been robust, and January has continued to show positive growth
over the prior
year in both New Zealand and Australia.
Group sales for
December were +8% on the prior year, with January results
continuing in a
similar vein. Sales for the summer season August 2014 to
January 2015 are
+3.8% on the prior corresponding period.
Projected earnings after tax for the
6 months ended 1 February 2015 are in
the range $8.1 - $8.3m, approximately
32% above the prior corresponding
period.
A full earnings statement will
be released 27th March 2015.

Graeme Popplewell
CEO
+64 21
738728
End CA:00259848 For:HLG Type:FORECAST Time:2015-01-19 08:41:53

percy
19-01-2015, 10:26 AM
A very good result.

Biscuit
19-01-2015, 10:44 AM
Nice. Makes up for the hit on WHS, I guess you cannot catch two falling knives at once

BFG
19-01-2015, 12:04 PM
6674

... NZ retail company performance over the past 12 months, relative ot the NZ50.

Prices are dividend adjusted, so the NZ50 comparison is like-for-like.

Nice chart bunter. This announcement may have HLG vying with BGR for market darling status of the retail sector of the NZX. Still need to put more runs on the board though!

percy
19-01-2015, 01:25 PM
Nice chart bunter. This announcement may have HLG vying with BGR for market darling status of the retail sector of the NZX. Still need to put more runs on the board though!

What do mean put runs on the board.?????????????????
Tim Glasson would be the most prolific scorer of centuries of all retailers.!!!! lol.

BFG
19-01-2015, 01:38 PM
What do mean put runs on the board.?????????????????
Tim Glasson would be the most prolific scorer of centuries of all retailers.!!!! lol.

I wouldn't exactly call these announcements good runs...

January 2014: https://www.anzsecurities.co.nz/DirectTrade/dynamic/announcement.aspx?id=3529164

November 2013: https://www.anzsecurities.co.nz/DirectTrade/dynamic/announcement.aspx?id=3486935

June 2013: https://www.anzsecurities.co.nz/DirectTrade/dynamic/announcement.aspx?id=3367452

The 2 year chart says HLG holders have suffered quite abit over the past year and a half in fact. Before this announcement today, HLG was at multi-year lows. That suggests that more runs need to be scored (like this one) to get sentiment back on the right track, and in a terrible retail sector that will be hard to do!

percy
19-01-2015, 02:29 PM
I am off course referring to his 40 year history of run scoring.Double centuries,6s,etc and still putting runs on the board.Has also been a very handy fielder paying big dividends,which shareholders have caught with both hands.
Taking the very small business of Glassons,developing it, and then merging it to form HGL,which he helped grow further.

BFG
19-01-2015, 02:41 PM
I am off course referring to his 40 year history of run scoring.Double centuries,6s,etc and still putting runs on the board.Has also been a very handy fielder paying big dividends,which shareholders have caught with both hands.
Taking the very small business of Glassons,developing it, and then merging it to form HGL,which he helped grow further.

Ah right. Being a Canadian and thoroughly addicted to the only sport that really matters (ice hockey) I had no clue he used to be a cricketer.

No doubt he's built it all up well, but the past year and a half saw it fall off the rails a bit! Time to get it back up onto them eh? ;)

000831
19-01-2015, 02:43 PM
If HLG opens stores in China, where the clothing made from. Could you guys see huge growth there?

percy
19-01-2015, 02:57 PM
Ah right. Being a Canadian and thoroughly addicted to the only sport that really matters (ice hockey) I had no clue he used to be a cricketer.

No doubt he's built it all up well, but the past year and a half saw it fall off the rails a bit! Time to get it back up onto them eh? ;)
I don't think ice hockey players put runs on the board,more pucks in the net.!!!
I think you started the cricket talk with runs on the board???
Back to HLG.Tim Glasson has a record of performing.They have had the odd bad season/year,but have always bounced back.
Their stores are well laid out,they flow well,their quality and selection is always good.They manage to fit a lot of well displayed stock in their stores.
If I was looking to buy a retail stock I would consider either BRG or HLG.

winner69
19-01-2015, 03:05 PM
I am off course referring to his 40 year history of run scoring.Double centuries,6s,etc and still putting runs on the board.Has also been a very handy fielder paying big dividends,which shareholders have caught with both hands.
Taking the very small business of Glassons,developing it, and then merging it to form HGL,which he helped grow further.

Stuffed he young ones here Percy

HLG is a great company .....century plus heritage eh.

Even last year it was hugely profitable even though not one of the best years. They made $14m odd on $63m on equity (and while holding heaps of cash and no debt)

Shareholders have only ever contributed $28m. That worth over $200m on the market today. Pretty good value added eh, especially taking into account the hundreds of millions of divies paid out over the years - $100m in the last 5 years alone.

Can't do better than that

Tim a legend in NZ retail alright. HLG as we know it today hugely successful.

Pity that underneath all this people's judgement on the company often based on a squiggly line. A squiggly line that punters decide the shape, not the company eh. Prob Tim as majority shareholder doesn't even know what the squiggly line looks like.

HLG go about doing things well, punters play around and while some are happy some are sad

HLG will be here in decades to come, won't they percy

percy
19-01-2015, 03:14 PM
Stuffed he young ones here Percy

HLG is a great company .....century plus heritage eh.

Even last year it was hugely profitable even though not one of the best years. They made $14m odd on $63m on equity (and while holding heaps of cash and no debt)

Shareholders have only ever contributed $28m. That worth over $200m on the market today. Pretty good value added eh, especially taking into account the hundreds of millions of divies paid out over the years - $100m in the last 5 years alone.

Can't do better than that

Tim a legend in NZ retail alright. HLG as we know it today hugely successful.

Pity that underneath all this people's judgement on the company often based on a squiggly line. A squiggly line that punters decide the shape, not the company eh. Prob Tim as majority shareholder doesn't even know what the squiggly line looks like.

HLG go about doing things well, punters play around and while some are happy some are sad

HLG will be here in decades to come, won't they percy

Thanks for you well thought out post Winner69.
I look for "good" businesses to invest in.A "good" business can have a "bad' year,and a "bad" business can have a "good" year,but the good business will survive .Telling the difference is sometimes hard,but a good performer usually keeps performing.
Pucks in the net,not in the face.???

BFG
19-01-2015, 03:16 PM
I don't think ice hockey players put runs on the board,more pucks in the net.!!!
I think you started the cricket talk with runs on the board???
Back to HLG.Tim Glasson has a record of performing.They have had the odd bad season/year,but have always bounced back.
Their stores are well laid out,they flow well,their quality and selection is always good.They manage to fit a lot of well displayed stock in their stores.
If I was looking to buy a retail stock I would consider either BRG or HLG.

In regards to quality and selection, myself and another perosn my age had a conversation about HLG today. We both agree that HLG quality/selection has gone down hill and is prone to pandering to the hipster generation (for you oldies that don't know what this is, it's the guys trying to grow moustaches, girls with overly large sunglasses, and both drinking "craft" beers and no idea about the reality of life in general). We both have stopped going to HLG, but I guess we can chalk that one up to age and refinement of ones palate. Obviously, people are still buying the stuff by the bucketload! For balance, their website is of good quality and quite well laid out.

Percy, as I said before, if they can keep this up then they will be up there with BGR no problem. I still consider BGR market darling #1 though ;)


Stuffed he young ones here Percy

It's not too hard these days ;)

BFG
19-01-2015, 03:16 PM
Pucks in the net,not in the face.???

At least it's not pucks in the crotch! D'oh! :scared:

winner69
19-01-2015, 03:26 PM
Tim has a neat little pad in Sydney to stay in when he's over there

http://news.domain.com.au/domain/real-estate-news/jacenkos-go-public-with-18m-sale-20140625-zskzn.html

percy
19-01-2015, 04:42 PM
In regards to quality and selection, myself and another perosn my age had a conversation about HLG today. We both agree that HLG quality/selection has gone down hill and is prone to pandering to the hipster generation (for you oldies that don't know what this is, it's the guys trying to grow moustaches, girls with overly large sunglasses, and both drinking "craft" beers and no idea about the reality of life in general). We both have stopped going to HLG, but I guess we can chalk that one up to age and refinement of ones palate. Obviously, people are still buying the stuff by the bucketload! For balance, their website is of good quality and quite well laid out.

Percy, as I said before, if they can keep this up then they will be up there with BGR no problem. I still consider BGR market darling #1 though ;)



It's not too hard these days ;)

First of all I must admit I agree with you on BGR.
Laughing about you and your friend's conversation about HLG.
I would think young men have had the same conversation about HLG for about the past 100 years!!!!
I expect it may be the same for the next 100years.!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! lol.

bunter
19-01-2015, 04:45 PM
HLG is updating the market on December and YTD sales shortly.

August - Nov sales up 2% on 2013
NZ Dec retail card spending on apparel up 1% on Dec 2013.
It was a cold December.

Any guesses? 2% rise I'm guessing, 5% profit increase for the YE 1/2/15, and a steady share price.

Is the share poxed, like WHS, KMD, and PPL OK like BGR, or in-between?

Keen to hear others' thoughts.

Nice to be wrong sometimes.
Nice too that there was no apparent 'information leak' before this announcement .
And that the company blamed *itself* for last year's poor profit - and did something about it.

Have increased my long-term growth guess from 5% pa to 8%, since HLG forecasts 30% growth for the current 6 months.

And the bunter-valuation (c) rises from 5.97 to 6.9

Remember two years ago when AIR was cheap, and the company forecast a sharp rise in profits?
Many refused to invest because 'airlines don't make profits long-term'. I got in small-scale and reluctantly, feeling it was the wrong thing to do..

Now 'retail is dying because of the internet'.

Anyone game to go against the herd and buy HLG?

Biscuit
20-01-2015, 08:39 AM
Now 'retail is dying because of the internet'.

Anyone game to go against the herd and buy HLG?

I agree with your post bunter. Thought about the long term effect of the internet on clothes retailers before buying more HLG when the price tanked. Mrs Satan would never buy clothes on the internet, so no worries I guess.

winner69
20-01-2015, 08:48 AM
Percy will remember the days when the coming of big shopping malls would kill Hallensteins and Glassons as .... death to the High St they said and Hallensteins would not be able to adapt.

Survived world wars, depressions and recessions. high inflation. low inflation. the times when T shirts imported from Fiji were less than a buck and all the other things that have happened.

They 'listen' to the market and concentrate/focus on certain segments - like now we don't really want to sell what Moosie and his mates like but heck there are more people in Palmerston North than Moosie.

They be around for many years I reckon ..... and making heaps of money for many years

000831
20-01-2015, 08:55 AM
6683

Great management, great company, great dividend policy, great price, great timing, great technical analysis, buy!

Great NZ GDP growth rate, great low interest rate environment, great oil price! The best period for NZX50 index in the history.

HLG will back to $6.00 level in two years term!

BFG
20-01-2015, 09:41 AM
They 'listen' to the market and concentrate/focus on certain segments - like now we don't really want to sell what Moosie and his mates like but heck there are more people in Palmerston North than Moosie.

I agree. Don't listen to me, I'm a 28 year old Archivist stuck in a grumpy old man's body (some would say like Mr Magoo?). I dress like one too. Rod & Gunn would have me as a mannequin any day of the week. :p


They be around for many years I reckon ..... and making heaps of money for many years

Agreed. Hate the clothes now, love the profits. No reason not to buy on that front!

Toulouse - Luzern
20-01-2015, 10:26 AM
[QUOTE=000831;526448]6683

Great management, great company, great dividend policy, great price, great timing, great technical analysis, buy!

Great NZ GDP growth rate, great low interest rate environment, great oil price! The best period for NZX50 index in the history.


You look to have made a great entry ...

bunter
05-02-2015, 12:31 PM
HLG due to report its first half figures in the next few weeks.

Dodgy sector which IMO is undergoing change... shops. whole chains closing down.
Shopping is still occurring - shops, not so much.

Maybe some companies will disappear, and the survivors will (eventually) thrive.

Given that the company claims to have addressed its problems and is forecasting a 30% yoy increase in H1 profits, I've used a long term growth factor of 8%.



Jan-15
Original analysis date






SP today

3.37

Growth
8.0%





NPAT






15
14
13
12
11


to 1/2

8.2
6.2
10.4
9
7.1



to 1/07

10.5

8.1
8.3
12
11.2



FY

18.7
14.3
18.7
21
18.3










H2>H1%

28%
31%
-20%
33%
58%













eps






15
14
13
12
11



to 1/2

0.139
0.105
0.176
0.153
0.120



to 1/07

0.178

0.137
0.141
0.203
0.190


FY

0.317
0.242
0.317
0.356
0.310












dps (net - all fully imputed)





15

14
13
12
11


to 1/2

14
12
16
14.5
14



to 1/07

17

16.5
17.5
19
17


FY

31
28.5
33.5
33.5
31



P/O%
97.81%
117.59%
105.70%
94.12%
99.95%


GrossDivYld

12.8%
















Dividend history





26/11/14
Final
16.500c
2.912c
6.417c
5/12/14


8/04/14
Interim
12.000c
2.118c
4.667c
17/04/14


27/11/13
Final
17.500c
3.088c
6.806c
6/12/13


10/04/13
Interim
16.000c
2.824c
6.222c
19/04/13


28/11/12
Final
19.000c
3.353c
7.771c
7/12/12



11/04/12
Interim
14.500c
2.559c
6.214c
20/04/12










Benjamin valuation (2015) - v=eps*(8.5+2g)

7.77


Dividend flow valuation


6.85

Joshuatree
08-02-2015, 10:17 AM
First of all I must admit I agree with you on BGR.
Laughing about you and your friend's conversation about HLG.
I would think young men have had the same conversation about HLG for about the past 100 years!!!!
I expect it may be the same for the next 100years.!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! lol.

Really impressed with H this year ; their product range is excellent.Ive really enjoyed going past the empty heartland bank (1 of my biggest holdings) to busy HLG shop ; bought heaps of t shirts mainly; and fake Vans for $12;best designs ever! The bonus is my 14 year old likes them too; so Im cool enough to occasionally take her to my fave cafe and sit at the same table lol:t_up:

Antipodean
27-03-2015, 11:04 AM
Very good half year result makes me a happy holder still

https://nzx.com/companies/HLG/announcements/262342

Beagle
27-03-2015, 12:53 PM
Yes it was an exceptional result and outlook is also highly encouraging. Factor in too further growth from the new store format which they seem very positive about and it seems to me that they've found a nice sweet stop in the middle market segment of the rag trade. PE is very reasonable and divvy yield is really quite compelling, I'm in for a few cum divvy and expect meaningful analyst upgrades in the next few days. The thinly disguised divvy hound that inherently lurks within, senses some very good feeds to come in the years ahead :D
Leaving aside the hungry beagle hounds appetite and putting my bean counters hat on it appears to me we have a very robust and clean balance sheet with next to no debt apart from the usual trade creditors, goodwill is not inflated, in fact quite the opposite, stock seems very well controlled at only two months inventory on hand, liquidity is very strong and overall the business seems to be extremely well positioned.

TheHunter
27-03-2015, 01:28 PM
:D

High dividend pay out, plans for future growth in place, attractive outlook and still no long-term debt. Excellent.

Even after todays small jump in share price (really surprised it hasn't gone higher), the interim alone is still a 4% return (Currently trading @ $3.38).

Really looking forward to reading their full year result in half a years time.

Beagle
27-03-2015, 02:53 PM
:D

High dividend pay out, plans for future growth in place, attractive outlook and still no long-term debt. Excellent.

Even after todays small jump in share price (really surprised it hasn't gone higher), the interim alone is still a 4% return (Currently trading @ $3.38).

Really looking forward to reading their full year result in half a years time.

A lot of people need to be told by an analyst that its good value and a great BUY.

peat
28-03-2015, 10:02 PM
divvy yield is really quite compelling

the divvy hasn't been covered by earnings in three of the last 5 years.
And each of the last three years earnings have reduced from the year before. at best this latest half flattens the decline rather than turns it around.
retail may be tough but economy is quite good really - so how will retail do when things go off the simmer.

I

TheHunter
30-03-2015, 06:47 AM
retail may be tough but economy is quite good really - so how will retail do when things go off the simmer.

Not too sure about you Peat, but I know I still plan on wearing clothes when the economy goes off the simmer.

peat
30-03-2015, 08:29 PM
I still plan on wearing clothes when the economy goes off the simmer.

how many, the new seasons or only once they're on sale? Lots of accessories, or none at all.
<sigh>

am I being trolled?

percy
31-03-2015, 06:31 AM
the divvy hasn't been covered by earnings in three of the last 5 years.
And each of the last three years earnings have reduced from the year before. at best this latest half flattens the decline rather than turns it around.
retail may be tough but economy is quite good really - so how will retail do when things go off the simmer.

I
HLG is a very well run business,good stock selection,good logistics,good store displays.good advertising.
However when retail does slow down, they have large on going high overheads with Mall rents and staffing costs,which they cannot control.
Their margins are very high, which I would expect to attract competition from online retailers,where HLG are not strong.
Retail remains a difficult sector for investors, and I think a good warning signal is Briscoes' stated objective of looking for growth online .
In the meantime the dividend is very high,which will underpin the share price for the immediate future,but for them to continue,at some stage earnings will have to grow.I can not see this growth,so take care.

Beagle
31-03-2015, 09:55 AM
Craigs have upgraded and have a 12 month price target of $4.40 PE 11 Gross divvy yield of 12.5%
First N.Z. have upgraded to a 12 month price target of $4.10 with similar metrics and outlook.

Peat, Please read the outlook statement in the earnings report. They paint a very healthy and robust picture which the analysts are clearly seeing. Despite your claim that earnings don't cover dividend their balance sheet is exceptionally stong with no debt other than usual trade creditors. You could easily make the case that the economy is not simmering along nicely, (and yet HLG are). I presume you've noticed the massive reduction in the dairy farmers forecast pay-out and the drought that affected much of N.Z. this summer ?

noodles
31-03-2015, 10:02 AM
Craigs have upgraded and have a 12 month price target of $4.40 PE 11 Gross divvy yield of 12.5%
First N.Z. have upgraded to a 12 month price target of $4.10 with similar metrics and outlook.


So if you buy before the ex div date and sell after the final dividend, you could make 25% gross on an annualised basis!
This assumes no share price appreciation. I note the targets are way above the current share price.

Beagle
31-03-2015, 10:11 AM
So if you buy before the ex div date and sell after the final dividend, you could make 25% gross on an annualised basis!
This assumes no share price appreciation. I note the targets are way above the current share price.

Yes quite right mate. Another perspective worth considering is that both analysts view is a little conservative because those buying now will get a 14.5 cent fully imputed dividend back, (in five minutes time so too speak), so if one is investing for the medium term you can work your earnings metrics on your net invested price after deducting your initial dividend.

TheHunter
31-03-2015, 07:53 PM
Their margins are very high, which I would expect to attract competition from online retailers,where HLG are not strong.


Just out of interest - why aren't HLG strong in this area Percy?

percy
31-03-2015, 09:02 PM
Just out of interest - why aren't HLG strong in this area Percy?

I think the reason is/was Tim Glasson being a brick and mortar man, has never seen online as being a threat.
Therefore they were slow to move online,and with little conviction.
If you compare this with Briscoes' Rod Duke commitment,you can see the reason why one is doing well on line, while the other is not.
It is also interesting to note Briscoes use www.estaronline.com !!!!
Yes I hold Estar shares!!!!!

dagoldtoof
01-04-2015, 09:32 AM
last week did my six month user test on HLG...Online purchase ex Trade Me was quick delivery , nice product, good price....The early shop experience 9.15am was a good one, 5 staff helpful, even at that time others shoppers buying, autumn products displayed, purchased again, other similar shops in block appear slow ......HLG email me new seasons products daily (sometimes free delivery) which I hope tick all the boxes for fashionable kiwis... ....Happy I purchased shares, should have bought more...Not a mall , small city....

percy
01-04-2015, 09:35 AM
last week did my six month user test on HLG...Online purchase ex Trade Me was quick delivery , nice product, good price....The early shop experience 9.15am was a good one, 5 staff helpful, even at that time others shoppers buying, autumn products displayed, purchased again, other similar shops in block appear slow ......HLG email me new seasons products daily (sometimes free delivery) which I hope tick all the boxes for fashionable kiwis... ....Happy I purchased shares, should have bought more...Not a mall , small city....

I think you have proved the point of doing your own research! Great post!

TheHunter
01-04-2015, 10:47 AM
From a customer perspective, I am quite impressed with their online services as well.

They seem to follow suit (just like their products do) with the current & trending offerings by popular retailers e.g. the iconic, ASOS etc. For example, I was glad to see they have added videos of people modeling their products - this seems to be a popular feature amongst other online retailers.

Everyone seems so scared of the threat of online shopping... I see it as an opportunity to reach offshore markets with little investment required to do so. I really hope their online services take off overseas.

Dagoldtoof - I got dragged into Glassons by the girlfriend the other day:mad ;:. It was also buzzing along quite nicely for a Sunday morning, especially in comparison to the other retailers in the area.

000831
30-04-2015, 07:38 PM
anyone received dividiend check yet?

dagoldtoof
30-04-2015, 08:15 PM
Received 17th April...Have they all your details?....

000831
30-04-2015, 08:33 PM
what should I do if they sent the cheque to the wrong address pls?

percy
30-04-2015, 08:56 PM
what should I do if they sent the cheque to the wrong address pls?

I would first of all check with the people at the wrong address, to see either if they have received it,and would they redirect it to you.
If that does not work,contact the share registry and get them to cancel the cheque and reissue you with a new one,or better still give them your bank details so you can receive divies by direct credit in future..

winner69
30-04-2015, 09:01 PM
I would first of all check with the people at the wrong address, to see either if they have received it,and would they redirect it to you.
If that does not work,contact the share registry and get them to cancel the cheque and reissue you with a new one,or better still give them your bank details so you can receive divies by direct credit in future..

For punishment in not keeping the registry up to date it should be donated to Nepal appeal

percy
30-04-2015, 09:09 PM
For punishment in not keeping the registry up to date it should be donated to Nepal appeal

Trust you will match it dollar for dollar!!!!

bull....
06-05-2015, 03:02 PM
falling aussie/nz cross should help

bull....
04-06-2015, 08:36 AM
looking bullish broke out, retested and now advancing 4 dollar initial targewt

TheHunter
04-06-2015, 09:10 AM
The next earnings update should push it over and beyond, time to sit back and watch :t_up:

Beagle
04-06-2015, 10:51 AM
Yep looking really strong and bullish and with Auckland's weather changing literally every five minutes I am sure the stores are flat out selling winter clothes to those like me who are silly enough to have not stocked up the winter wardrobe already.

TheHunter
04-06-2015, 11:18 AM
Hit 3.95, 5 more cents to go :t_up: should be just the beginning tho.

Beagle
04-06-2015, 12:04 PM
Yes a good story emerging for this company that seem to have found a nice sweet spot in the middle of the rag trade price range in much the same way Briscoes has with its products.

Extremely well managed.
Long track record of high dividends all fully imputed.
Brilliant stock management with over four times stock turn a year.
Good store locations
Fantastic gross profit margins
Efficiently stocked with excellent layout
Extremely robust and very clean and tidy balance sheet completely free of some other companies tendencies to inflate their balance sheet numbers with ridiculously high intangible assets / goodwill figures.
Circa 11% gross divvy yield even after the recent surge upwards
Add in a nice cold winter and you have a very compelling investment case.

The trend is your friend. If you already own why bother selling...just sit back and reap the rewards :D

bull....
04-06-2015, 12:16 PM
The next earnings update should push it over and beyond, time to sit back and watch :t_up:

yes expecting a big turn around - was in wellington store a while back, pretty cool atmosphere live dj playing heaps of people this was at 5.30pm was pretty impressive so was the staff member lol

TheHunter
04-06-2015, 12:26 PM
I think my only regret with this stock will be that I didn't buy more.

Beagle
04-06-2015, 12:30 PM
I think my only regret with this stock will be that I didn't buy more.

You haven't got that one all to yourself mate.

TheHunter
04-06-2015, 02:08 PM
It is still attractive at current prices tho IMO.

nextbigthing
04-06-2015, 03:12 PM
Would you guys like any help building that ramp? :D

TheHunter
05-06-2015, 10:56 AM
Would you guys like any help building that ramp? :D

Hop on board my friend

nextbigthing
11-06-2015, 11:04 AM
Well judging by the trades going through at the moment, it looks as if Mr Bot has turned up to buy. Good news if that's the case.

TheHunter
11-06-2015, 11:07 AM
Haha just seen that too. Welcome Mr Bot.

With the lower interest rates again, the cash divi rate on this stock should be found very attractive, even well beyond the $4 mark.

Beagle
11-06-2015, 11:21 AM
Yep...all the high divvy yield stocks are really going to get extra zing with some including myself speculating that the Reserve Bank will have to unwind all four interest rate increases all the way back to 2.5%, which in my opinion is where it should have stayed all along.

When people are faced with getting 2% on their call accounts holding cash won't look too flash. HLG extremely well positioned.

TheHunter
11-06-2015, 11:26 AM
Even at $5 with the annual cash divi of 30c per share maintained (promosing outlook should beat it, interim already has) that's a 6% cash return alone.... did I just convince myself to buy more??!!!

nextbigthing
11-06-2015, 11:31 AM
Yep...all the high divvy yield stocks are really going to get extra zing with some including myself speculating that the Reserve Bank will have to unwind all four interest rate increases all the way back to 2.5%, which in my opinion is where it should have stayed all along.

When people are faced with getting 2% on their call accounts holding cash won't look too flash. HLG extremely well positioned.

Yes I'm wondering if that's why someone flicked the Bot on.

Beagle
11-06-2015, 12:23 PM
Even at $5 with the annual cash divi of 30c per share maintained (promosing outlook should beat it, interim already has) that's a 6% cash return alone.... did I just convince myself to buy more??!!!

yeah baby that's fighting talk...you chose your user name well :D

You forgot to mention that at $5 those 30 cent divvy's are fully imputed which makes the gross return 8.33% (6 / 0.72) and all the young chaps and ladies in the cities couldn't give a toss what's happening down on the dairy farm.
Great place to hide from the dairy fallout ?, you betcha !!!!

I couldn't help myself and piled into some more in the low 370's...like taking candy from a baby...too easy.

bull....
12-06-2015, 06:51 AM
3.95 close enough to 4 to complete the break out target probably consolidate a bit now I think, divs are good but they have been declining yr on yr so be nice if they can buck the trend and increase the div

TheHunter
12-06-2015, 07:09 AM
3.95 close enough to 4 to complete the break out target probably consolidate a bit now I think, divs are good but they have been declining yr on yr so be nice if they can buck the trend and increase the div

Interim already has increased, I'm confident final will follow suit. Surprised anyone would want to sell at $4, still undervalued at this price IMO.

As always tho, DYOR.

Regi
12-06-2015, 09:28 AM
Up 24cps on low volume (~500)... Even so, think I missed my chance yesterday to get in at the low 3.70's for now :(

bull....
12-06-2015, 09:28 AM
maybe I spoke to soon lol 3.94 now hardly any sellers

000831
12-06-2015, 09:30 AM
last chance to buy below 4.00, now!

Regi
22-06-2015, 10:23 AM
Finally snagged some at $3.74!

What's with the big bid/ask price gap? It has been pretty boring stock to watch over the last couple of weeks but patience paid off.

Antipodean
22-06-2015, 10:59 AM
Patience almost always pays off in this game.

Gap could be caused by more people with great desire to hold than sellers willing to match them. Hard to say. FA is looking gold, but it hasn't been a smooth ride in the last 12 months so buyers may be waiting for a better history before committing.

TheHunter
23-06-2015, 10:06 AM
Hesitance may also be caused by the falling NZ dollar, putting the squeeze on gross margins on imported products for retail.

On the plus side, it will make the translation from Aus $ to NZ $ on record date look better.

Beagle
23-06-2015, 10:16 AM
Plenty of commentary starting to emerge that consumers are going to have to get used to paying a bit more due to the fall in the dollar so I don't expect any meaningful margin compression. I remain convinced that HLG have a nice sweet spot in the middle price zone of the apparel business, much like Briscoes do in the home-ware business.

TheHunter
23-06-2015, 10:23 AM
I agree Roger, my opinion still remains the same - gobble them up while you can.

Given that the retail environment is heavily competitive, I'd expect the fall in the NZ $ to hit more on margins rather than on consumer prices tho.

Not worried at all about HLG tho.

James108
24-06-2015, 08:50 PM
The annual report says a 10% movement in exchange rate will have a ~300k effect on equity.

Does this seem too low? If you add 10% to COGS it is in the order of $8M, which is half their profits.

We may be fine for this year due to hedging but going forward if the US and NZ have similar interest rates the profits we have seen in previous years could be under threat?

TheHunter
25-06-2015, 10:46 AM
Hi James,

What page does it mention the 10%? I'm interested to read it.

My understanding is they use forward rate contracts for 100% of their committed purchases and are 30% hedge for 12 month in advance, so I don't see half their profits running away from the low NZ $.

I beleive it is only a concern if the NZ $ remains low for the long term, then it will either put the squeze on gross margins and then, as Roger mentioned, prices may have to go up.

However, this is not specific for just HLG & will impact their competitors as well. It will also be a disincentive for consumers to shop online from overseas. Also, the translation rate at record date will 'look' good. So pro's and con's to the low dollar, HLG's ability to effectively hedge will be what makes the difference.

winner69
25-06-2015, 11:04 AM
The annual report says a 10% movement in exchange rate will have a ~300k effect on equity.

Does this seem too low? If you add 10% to COGS it is in the order of $8M, which is half their profits.

We may be fine for this year due to hedging but going forward if the US and NZ have similar interest rates the profits we have seen in previous years could be under threat?

The Note in the Accounts that that figure you quote relates to financial instruments. The values mentioned as to the impact on the value of those under the sensitivities mentioned.

I don't think it is meant to cover what might happen to normal trading activity, like COS etc

Think that's the story

TheHunter
25-06-2015, 11:14 AM
That's the one Winner.

I wonder when the next earnings update will be popping up.

James108
25-06-2015, 11:33 AM
Yea I realise the change in equity reflected a change in financial instruments. I figured a $300k gain on equity reflects that if there was a 10% change in NZD/USD, payments to suppliers would be $300k more than if the hedge was not in place. So if the hedge covers 30% of their payments if the current NZD/USD is maintained would this increase expenses by $1M?

I guess what I was trying to find out was the realistic impact on their expenses from the lower NZD (if the current NZD/USD was maintained). I am probably far off base here. I have basic accounting knowledge but would really like to learn more about the finer details like this sort of thing.

Basic economics tells us that an increase in expenses will be taken up by the supplier and consumer so an increase in expense doesnt necesarily translate to the same decrease in profits but I am still interested in the increase in expesne.

bull....
25-06-2015, 11:47 AM
after rpretty much reaching the 4 target chart turned down someone wants out bad saw the overhang the other day nearly 250k thet couldn't offload

TheHunter
25-06-2015, 11:59 AM
I have basic accounting knowledge but would really like to learn more about the finer details like this sort of thing.

Are you studying by any chance James? When you do a paper on hedge accounting your queries will be answered.

Bull - Let them off load, I could do with a top up.

James108
25-06-2015, 12:04 PM
Are you studying by any chance James? When you do a paper on hedge accounting your queries will be answered.

Bull - Let them off load, I could do with a top up.

No, I am actually geotechnical (dirt) engineer.

My accounting experience is limited to highschoo (NCEA level 1-3). Can you recommend any textbooks leading on from high school level?

TheHunter
25-06-2015, 12:26 PM
Flick me a private message and we will leave the forum for HLG discussions, otherwise all the punters will be fast asleep after reading hedge accounting chat :)

Beagle
25-06-2015, 01:03 PM
Flick me a private message and we will leave the forum for HLG discussions, otherwise all the punters will be fast asleep after reading hedge accounting chat :)

LOL, yeah as Paul Henry says, before we lose the will to live. Consumers will have to become accustomed to paying a little more for all imported goods from all sorts of suppliers including HLG. Any attempt to analyse this beyond this simple reality is wasted intellectual energy IMHO.

winner69
25-06-2015, 02:03 PM
LOL, yeah as Paul Henry says, before we lose the will to live. Consumers will have to become accustomed to paying a little more for all imported goods from all sorts of suppliers including HLG. Any attempt to analyse this beyond this simple reality is wasted intellectual energy IMHO.

Agree ....cost goes up + mark up stays the same = higher selling price .......and if they clever MORE DOLLARS than before

High $ (ie price deflation) not always good for retailers

Roger, that very good of you to help out with hedge accounting. Well done

pennyacw
29-06-2015, 01:47 PM
Does anyone have any insight or information on the supply chain / inventory management strategy this company follows?

couta1
29-06-2015, 04:04 PM
Through the MA 200 line, looking very tempting now.

Beagle
29-06-2015, 04:09 PM
Does anyone have any insight or information on the supply chain / inventory management strategy this company follows?

Average inventory is only 2 months sales. These guys are the best in the business at turning stock into cash and run a well managed efficient and high quality operation. It hurts to see the SP being marked down so aggressively. I hold and will add more if this situation gets any more irrational as this stock has been an exceptional dividend payer year in and year out and has a bullet proof balance sheet that's clean and tidy. I will update PE and gross divvy yield as soon as I get time based on the closing SP. The investment case is compelling at this lower level. Guidance at the last update was very strong and concerns over the effects of a lower currency have clearly been more than fully reflected in the recent SP correction. Great cash cow, I will BUY as soon as the Greek situation gets clarified.

gv1
29-06-2015, 06:02 PM
yeah its a great company, looking to reenter....don't worry too much about SP as many investors sell up between may-july.

percy
29-06-2015, 06:59 PM
Average inventory is only 2 months sales. These guys are the best in the business at turning stock into cash and run a well managed efficient and high quality operation. It hurts to see the SP being marked down so aggressively. I hold and will add more if this situation gets any more irrational as this stock has been an exceptional dividend payer year in and year out and has a bullet proof balance sheet that's clean and tidy. I will update PE and gross divvy yield as soon as I get time based on the closing SP. The investment case is compelling at this lower level. Guidance at the last update was very strong and concerns over the effects of a lower currency have clearly been more than fully reflected in the recent SP correction. Great cash cow, I will BUY as soon as the Greek situation gets clarified.

Dairying must be in a really bad way to be affecting great cash cows too.!

Beagle
29-06-2015, 07:28 PM
Through the MA 200 line, looking very tempting now.


yeah its a great company, looking to reenter....don't worry too much about SP as many investors sell up between may-july.

Great minds think alike. Any further irrational selling will see me getting the chequebook out. The value is sticking out like a third hind leg on a greyhound.
http://www.4-traders.com/HALLENSTEIN-GLASSONS-HOLD-6495564/financials/
Consensus PE now only 11 on a closing price of $3.30. Consensus EPS of 30 cps this year and next.
Consensus divvy's are also 30 cps...company has such a rock solid balance sheet there is little point in retaining earnings.
Consensus net dividend yield at $3.30 is 9.1% or grossed up for full imputation credits 12.63%. Read their most recent market update a couple of months back and absorb the growth they're talking about and then you tell me, does opportunity knock at $3.30 or what !!

bull....
30-06-2015, 03:27 AM
support now 3.10 selling action has changed chart from very bullish to very bearish within week if price stays down here - back in that 2yr trading range 2.80 to 3.50

winner69
30-06-2015, 07:51 AM
Stuffed he young ones here Percy

HLG is a great company .....century plus heritage eh.

Even last year it was hugely profitable even though not one of the best years. They made $14m odd on $63m on equity (and while holding heaps of cash and no debt)

Shareholders have only ever contributed $28m. That worth over $200m on the market today. Pretty good value added eh, especially taking into account the hundreds of millions of divies paid out over the years - $100m in the last 5 years alone.

Can't do better than that

Tim a legend in NZ retail alright. HLG as we know it today hugely successful.

Pity that underneath all this people's judgement on the company often based on a squiggly line. A squiggly line that punters decide the shape, not the company eh. Prob Tim as majority shareholder doesn't even know what the squiggly line looks like.

HLG go about doing things well, punters play around and while some are happy some are sad

HLG will be here in decades to come, won't they percy

Roger, you might have timed your entry wrong this time around but now you in don't ever sell.

Just let those dividends roll in. Think long term

PS, those guru analysts got their price targets wrong as well so don't fret unless you were 'guided' by them.

winner69
30-06-2015, 08:11 AM
Jeez, wasn't that many weeks ago you guys were talking 5 bucks.

So 330 is a long way from that but that dive looks tempting, if you into divies that is,

What's analyst targets? They be calling HLG a BUY now wont they?

gv1
30-06-2015, 08:46 AM
[QUOTE=Roger;578521]Great minds think alike. Any further irrational selling will see me getting the chequebook out. The value is sticking out like a third hind leg on a greyhound.

Heh!Heh!!:t_up::t_up::t_up::D:D

noodles
30-06-2015, 08:52 AM
Jeez, wasn't that many weeks ago you guys were talking 5 bucks.

So 330 is a long way from that but that dive looks tempting, if you into divies that is,

What's analyst targets? They be calling HLG a BUY now wont they?
Analysts will need to get their spreadsheet out and work out what impact the fall in the NZD will have on the bottom line and dividends. The last of the reports out were in March. Forbar have just released a report on the retail sector. I wonder what it is saying?

Beagle
30-06-2015, 09:18 AM
Roger, you might have timed your entry wrong this time around but now you in don't ever sell.

Just let those dividends roll in. Think long term

PS, those guru analysts got their price targets wrong as well so don't fret unless you were 'guided' by them.

No I am not selling at this level. Plain fact is Kiwi's will have to get used too paying a little more for imported goods and HLG are in the sweet stop in the middle price point of the apparel trade just like Briscoes is with its homeware business.
I bought this stock for its impeccable record through thick and thin of paying really meaningful dividends, all fully imputed and because of its super strong clean and tidy balance sheet, impeccable stock management as well as growth opportunities which the directors fully articulated in their half year report. Apart from the currency headwind which is more than fully reflected in the recent significant correction, nothing has changed.

TheHunter
30-06-2015, 09:20 AM
100% behind you there Roger. Can't complain tho, looks like we will just be buying more at a great price.

Beagle
30-06-2015, 11:48 AM
Now I'm conflicted LOL. I wanted them to go down further so I could double down and make more money and get more dividends in the future but I am pleased they have recovered 20 cents because it makes my end of quarter portfolio valuation look better. This goes to prove its helpful to have a schizophrenic nature when investing in shares :)

Regi
30-06-2015, 11:51 AM
Down to 3.30 yesterday... back up to 3.50 today all on no real news.... man I just don't understand the market sometimes, but I'm glad it realised it overreacted.

macduffy
30-06-2015, 12:18 PM
Down to 3.30 yesterday... back up to 3.50 today all on no real news.... man I just don't understand the market sometimes, but I'm glad it realised it overreacted.

Perhaps yesterday's rumour had HLG, not BGR, making a bid for Kathmandu?

;)

bull....
30-06-2015, 01:18 PM
seller must have run out

Antipodean
30-06-2015, 01:28 PM
Now I'm conflicted LOL. I wanted them to go down further so I could double down and make more money and get more dividends in the future but I am pleased they have recovered 20 cents because it makes my end of quarter portfolio valuation look better. This goes to prove its helpful to have a schizophrenic nature when investing in shares :)

I am in a similar position. I like to think of it as a win-win.

vin
30-06-2015, 03:16 PM
Hmm considering jumping on board after selling a few HNZ

Beagle
30-06-2015, 04:17 PM
I am in a similar position. I like to think of it as a win-win.

Well a close at $3.35 leaves me not knowing what to think. VWAP was $3.43 and close was on super low volume at closing price. I think I'll cheat a bit and use the VWAP price in my end of quarter portfolio valuation.

Its certainly been a forgettable quarter as far as I'm concerned wrapped up not nicely by more competition for AIR on the China route. I need a drink, enough said.

mikeybycrikey
30-06-2015, 04:54 PM
Well a close at $3.35 leaves me not knowing what to think. VWAP was $3.43 and close was on super low volume at closing price. I think I'll cheat a bit and use the VWAP price in my end of quarter portfolio valuation.

Its certainly been a forgettable quarter as far as I'm concerned wrapped up not nicely by more competition for AIR on the China route. I need a drink, enough said.

I'm not really that concerned about the recent drop in HLG.

I never really understood why it went up from $3.40 to about $3.80 over the past couple of months. It seems to have come down because of the falling NZ dollar and (along with most of the market) over uncertainty in Greece.

So, the price is now where is was two months ago and I think I agree with you Roger that the fundamentals haven't really changed, and hopefully the NZD will have only a minor impact.

winner69
30-06-2015, 05:35 PM
Well a close at $3.35 leaves me not knowing what to think. VWAP was $3.43 and close was on super low volume at closing price. I think I'll cheat a bit and use the VWAP price in my end of quarter portfolio valuation.

Its certainly been a forgettable quarter as far as I'm concerned wrapped up not nicely by more competition for AIR on the China route. I need a drink, enough said.

So the doyen of corporate governance and critic of 'dodgy' financial reporting uses 'NORMALISED VALUATIONS' himself?

Sorry mate

Beagle
30-06-2015, 05:41 PM
LOL Leave me alone mate, I need a drink..its been a tough quarter.

winner69
30-06-2015, 05:49 PM
LOL Leave me alone mate, I need a drink..its been a tough quarter.

I don't bother do return calculations ......saves a bit of pain sometimes

percy
30-06-2015, 06:46 PM
I don't bother do return calculations ......saves a bit of pain sometimes

Well I have just checked this year's sharetrader competition, as it reflects my portfolio, and I see I am 28th being up 9.30%.
My sharebroker will most probably send me a portfolio update tomorrow, which should confirm I am "well positioned."
May be even better as I note I am 6th in the Australian competition, being up 28%.
My find myself "very well positioned."

winner69
30-06-2015, 07:12 PM
Dairying must be in a really bad way to be affecting great cash cows too.!

Post of the century this one

Beagle
01-07-2015, 11:40 AM
I don't bother do return calculations ......saves a bit of pain sometimes

Wasn't too bad much like my head this morning lol

Snoopy
01-07-2015, 03:02 PM
I bought this stock for its impeccable record through thick and thin of paying really meaningful dividends, all fully imputed and because of its super strong clean and tidy balance sheet, impeccable stock management as well as growth opportunities which the directors fully articulated in their half year report. Apart from the currency headwind which is more than fully reflected in the recent significant correction, nothing has changed.


I have never been an HLG shareholder myself. Always kept it on the radar though, because when it comes to retailing there aren't many who do it as well as HLG. While I agree in general with what Roger has said here, you don't have to go back too far (FY2014!) to find times when HLG's stock managment was less than impeccable. To managment's credit they set about solving these stock hiccups by looking at themselves rather than blaming 'the market'. I have a lot of respect for such an approach.

As for the growth opportunities, I can't think of too many that have panned out well. HLG have been trying to become profitable in Australia seemingly forever. The latest attempt seems to be opening new signature stores in Sydney and Melbourne. Previous attempts have stalled I think because of the high rents that shopping centre owners demand in Australia. They had to pull the Hallenstien brand out of Australia altogether IIRC.

Back over this side of the Tasman there is the 'Storm' brand, which masquerades as an upmarket boutique shop. Not sure if too many women are fooled by that, nor how many designer boutiques have all their clothes made in bulk in China. Was going well until the headwinds stuck in FY2014.

I walk past a Glassons and Hallenstein's every week when I pick up the shopping. As I walk by, my foot tracks seem to recalibrate themselves to walk towards the entrance of both shops. The vibrant displays seem to have this magnetic attraction for shoppers, even if they aren't after clothes! Plenty get trapped inside too!

OK, cutting to the chase. HLG management are not short growth ideas, and concept execution seems good. But eps remains some 20% below pre GFC levels of FY2006 and FY2007. I don't know of many companies that run so hard just to stay still. Retail is a tough business to be sure, and things aren't getting any easier. So the question I ask myself is not if HLG is a great retailer (I think they are) but do I want to invest in the retail sector (outside of food) at all?

SNOOPY

Snoopy
01-07-2015, 03:18 PM
Here is my quick analysis on HLG, based on averaging the last five years worth of dividends.

-----------



2012F 14.5cps 17cps


201114.0cps17.0cps


201014.0cps17.0cps


200910.0cps11.0cps


200810.0cps17.0cps



-------

Average annual dividend per share 28.3cps.

If we consider a dividend yield over the business cycle of 8% being fair, then this implies a fair value share price of:

28.3c/0.08= $5.05


Ok time to rerun my dividend yield valuation. I am going to stick to the last five years of results, simply becasue the retail scene does seem to be evolving so fast.



YearInterim DividendFinal DividendepsPayout ratio


201412.0cps16.5cps24.2cps118%


201316.0cps17.5cps31.3cps107%


201214.5cps19cps31.0cps108%


201114.0cps17.0cps29.3cps106%


201014.0cps17.0cps34.3cps90%


Total70.5cps87.0cps150.1cps



Payout ratio (5yr average): (70.5 +87.0)/ 150.1 = 105% (Not sustainable?)

Average Annual payout (5yr average): 31.5cps

If we consider a yield of 6.5% over today's business cycle being 'fair', then my valuation for HLG is:

31.5/ 0.065 = $4.85

SNOOPY

James108
01-07-2015, 04:05 PM
I would argue you would have to go back to the GFC to try and capture the "business cycle".

Joshuatree
01-07-2015, 04:23 PM
Well my feet took me in today ; had to really hunt but found the $10 rack and added 2 more tshirts (were $30 e)to my collection. I was the only one there at re 10.45 am.Loaded with stock.

percy
01-07-2015, 04:34 PM
Well my feet took me in today ; had to really hunt but found the $10 rack and added 2 more tshirts (were $30 e)to my collection. I was the only one there at re 10.45 am.Loaded with stock.

You were had.!!!
$9 at Postie Plus. lol.

Joshuatree
01-07-2015, 05:08 PM
These are qualiTEE Panel shirts with designs printed all over ,not just an old fashioned little oblong print on the front of the thinnest piece of nano cotton. Get with it Percy; age is no excuse . Postiplus has imitations of everything and serves a purpose for those on a true budget and those scrooges with no taste:t_up:

percy
01-07-2015, 05:44 PM
These are qualiTEE Panel shirts with designs printed all over ,not just an old fashioned little oblong print on the front of the thinnest piece of nano cotton. Get with it Percy; age is no excuse . Postiplus has imitations of everything and serves a purpose for those on a true budget and those scrooges with no taste:t_up:

I am getting good wear from my "woolie pullies".

Joshuatree
01-07-2015, 10:18 PM
True. I did drop in to compare polyprop prices with farmers red dot sale and bought a decent undergarment there a few weeks back.

Beagle
02-07-2015, 07:51 AM
Ok time to rerun my dividend yield valuation. I am going to stick to the last five years of results, simply becasue the retail scene does seem to be evolving so fast.



YearInterim DividendFinal Dividendeps


201412.0cps16.5cps24.2cps



201316.0cps17.5cps31.3cps


201214.5cps19cps31.0cps


201114.0cps17.0cps29.3cps


201014.0cps17.0cps34.3cps


Total70.5cps87.0cps150.1cps



Payout ratio (5yr average): (70.5 +87.0)/ 150.1 = 105% (Not sustainable?)

Average Annual payout (5yr average): 31.5cps

If we consider a yield of 6.5% over today's business cycle being 'fair', then my valuation for HLG is:

31.5/ 0.065 = $4.85SNOOPY

Well my furry beagle friend - You'd struggle to find a more clean and tidy balance sheet than HLG's one. No B.S. intangible assets or goodwill, no debt other than trade creditors, moderate stock level's and excellent stock turn.
You've answered you own question as to why people invest in this stock...for the excellent dividend feed. When my much loved Beagle, now departed sensed a good feed, she was in with all the enthusiasm of a hungry dog with tail wagging and little pot belly filling up...she could smell a good feed from 100 yards off...so what's wrong with your nose mate :) You needn't apply for a job at the airport as a beagle hound out there if you can't see the feeding that goes on here..if you can't smell it, I put fair value in bigger font for you so maybe you can see it :D :D

Jaa
02-07-2015, 05:42 PM
The entrance and potential entrance of the world's large fast fashion retailers, Top Shop, H & M, Zara/Mango and Uniqlo into NZ should be keeping Hallensteins shareholders up late at night.

Beagle
02-07-2015, 06:04 PM
So that's why I haven't been sleeping well lol. I haven't heard of any of them but then I am just an average bloke so what would I know about fashion ? Maybe I'm just like other HLG customers...just want good stylish gear at a fair average price and couldn't give a toss about what's the latest trend from overseas unless we're talking about cars or boats :D

slimwin
02-07-2015, 06:51 PM
Top shop/ H&M, Zara/Mango are a tier above HLG I would have thought.

Regi
02-07-2015, 07:59 PM
Top shop/ H&M, Zara/Mango are a tier above HLG I would have thought.

Nail on the head. HLG really does (in my eyes) almost have its own market segment and offers quality, very regularly updated and attractively priced fashion. I know for me, and a lot of other guys out there, HLG is just our go-to place for a quick and painless yet successful wardrobe shop when we can't be bothered shopping around. They keep up to date, have amazing turnover, and have deals you can't refuse. Topshop and Zara are definitely a cut above HLG and they charge a premium for that and as a result attract a different type of customer.

And Roger, I'm sure you would know Amancio Ortega Gaona If you've ever visited Forbes :) He's Mr. Zara.

Jaa
02-07-2015, 09:02 PM
Roger, if you don't know who they are you shouldn't be owning HLG shares. Bit like owning Air NZ and having no idea who American Airlines and Eithad are!

Agree that Top Shop and Zara are a tier above, H & M and Uniqlo though aim for exactly the same market and with similar prices to Hallensteins and Glassons. 5-10 of either and probably both in NZ is inevitable in my opinion and will hurt HLG.

Wet Seal Whipped: Expect More Casualties As Fast Fashion Retailers Take Over Teen Market (http://www.forbes.com/sites/paularosenblum/2015/01/20/fast-fashion-retailers-are-taking-over-the-teen-market/)

slimwin
03-07-2015, 08:31 AM
Interesting. I've only ever dealt with h&m and zara in europe (being dragged through them). I've heard at least h&m do it different in asia. ie, more budget.

I guess brand loyalty counts for nothing when it comes to young-uns buying clothes. And they may even want to be more 'european'.

Brands come and go though and HLG are still here....

Beagle
03-07-2015, 08:52 AM
Brands come and go though and HLG are still here....

Jaa - This. You don't build a brand here in 5 minutes. HLG are on a PE of 11 and a gross divvy of 12.5% based on the $3.35 when I looked at it on 1 July.
Compares to their best retail peer who also have carved out a very well respected niche in the mid price point in their market BRG on a PE of 15.5 and a gross divvy yield of about 6.5%
WHS on a PE of about 17 last time I looked.

Sometimes with investment you've just got to stay focused no matter what the competition is doing because the investment metrics are so compelling and the brand has built a very loyal following.
This statement applies equally to AIR N.Z. on a forward PE of 6.7.

To be honest I have heard of Top Shop and got some feedback from Noodles that its nothing to be really concerned about with their one store in Auckland. Ask him but I think from memory his wife went there and he told me she was pretty underwhelmed....least that's my recollection but you're probably better hearing it straight from the horses mouth, so to speak.

slimwin
03-07-2015, 09:43 AM
Topshop in London is excellent :)

His wife just needs to commute.

GR8DAY
03-07-2015, 09:52 AM
"HLG are on a PE of 11 and a gross divvy of 12.5% based on the $3.35 when I looked at it on 1 July."............quote Roger

ANZ have HLG on a PE of 12.45 with an 8.45% gross return...who's right??

couta1
03-07-2015, 09:59 AM
"HLG are on a PE of 11 and a gross divvy of 12.5% based on the $3.35 when I looked at it on 1 July."............quote Roger

ANZ have HLG on a PE of 12.45 with an 8.45% gross return...who's right?? ANZ don't include imputation credits NZX would agree with Roger.

GR8DAY
03-07-2015, 10:05 AM
..thanks COUTA but wud those ICs make that much of a difference (8.5%/12.5%) ??......Im no accountant by the way!

couta1
03-07-2015, 10:07 AM
..thanks COUTA but wud those ICs make that much of a difference (8.5%/12.5%) ??......Im no accountant by the way!
It sure does, they equalled 11cents last year:cool:

noodles
03-07-2015, 10:33 AM
J
To be honest I have heard of Top Shop and got some feedback from Noodles that its nothing to be really concerned about with their one store in Auckland. Ask him but I think from memory his wife went there and he told me she was pretty underwhelmed....least that's my recollection but you're probably better hearing it straight from the horses mouth, so to speak.
Correct. The feedback from females in my family was that the quality and style were poor compared to what they were used to in Oxford St. Perhaps they just have fond memories. It is a few years since they were in London.

But I think competition is less of a concern than pricing pressure from their suppliers. This from the recent PPL announcement...
"However, international wholesale markets have become increasingly challenging. This, together with adverse forecast currency impacts, is expected to have a negative effect on earnings for FY 16. As a result normalised EBITDA for FY 16 is likely to be significantly below that forecast for FY 15."

HLG have really good management. I expect they will be able to mange it to a degree. But for me, it is too much of an uncertainty.

Beagle
03-07-2015, 10:56 AM
PPL have very poor management, extremely poor stock management, inept marketing, poor governance e.t.c.e.t.c.e.t.c.. Losers make excuses, winners just go about their business.

I'm expecting full year divvies of 31 cps fully imputed which is 31 / 0.72 = 43.05 cents per share gross on a SP of $3.50 this morning = 12.3% gross.

There's uncertainty in all business's and they all face challenges.

TheHunter
03-07-2015, 11:13 AM
Come on Roger, the final divi will be atleast 17.5cps :p

noodles
03-07-2015, 11:26 AM
PPL have very poor management, extremely poor stock management, inept marketing, poor governance e.t.c.e.t.c.e.t.c.. Losers make excuses, winners just go about their business.

I'm expecting full year divvies of 31 cps fully imputed which is 31 / 0.72 = 43.05 cents per share gross on a SP of $3.50 this morning = 12.3% gross.

There's uncertainty in all business's and they all face challenges.
Roger, I don't think FY15 dividend is in any doubt as they will have forward cover. FY16 is the concern.

Beagle
03-07-2015, 11:56 AM
Roger, I don't think FY15 dividend is in any doubt as they will have forward cover. FY16 is the concern.

I'm feeling pretty confident mate regarding FY16 and beyond. Directors report at the most recent half was really encouraging with very strong sales growth.
As discussed, consumers are going to have to get used to paying a little more with the lower currency for all sorts of things from petrol to appliances, airfares and clothes.
There's always a period of adjustment with consumer behaviour but are people really going to put off a necessary or desirable clothing item because its a few bucks more ? Will they even notice the price increase ?
The other aspect to this is the people shopping online from overseas companies will feel the chill of the full impact of the drop in our dollar immediately making sourcing clothing online less attractive.
Swings and roundabouts.