PRC Pike River Coal

[AMR]

AMR,
I am picking it will cosolidate all the way up to $3.

Got to be one of the most outstanding stocks on the NZX. Revenue projections up 3 fold... costs up marginally.

I will be back in quick time alright...those hedge fund stop hunters and shakers aren't going to take my shares!

[tim23]

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Yes I'm out as well, booked a nice profit for now. I'm expecting it to consolidate a while.
__________________
Disc : NZO, OEL, VPEO, RPM


gee AMR that was you last week, are you in or out or somewhat confused?

[The BOWMAN]

Yes, that's right AMR - if you are using a linear price scale. With a logarithmic price scale, though, the trendline was broken yesterday. The Slow Stochastic oscillator also triggered a Sell signal yesterday and today's 3.7% drop has carried PRC below its trailing stop and the 16 day moving average.

This is a fairly strong set of Sell signals.
http://h1.ripway.com/Phaedrus/PRC78.gif

So how high the PRC price has to rise to before we can call this TA **** busted?

[bermuda]

So how high the PRC price has to rise to before we can call this TA **** busted?

BOWMAN,

I AM RIGHT BEHIND YOU ON THIS ONE.

It can help sometimes but all the good stocks I own make a mockery of it. I am very wary of it and that's why I could never bring myself to study it. Studying it confuses you. Far better to look at long term fundamentals. imho

[Footsie]

ignore TA at your own peril

I bet phaedrus makes a comfortable living from his investing using TA

have to remember that no system is perfect!!

[tim23]

As long as your TA can tell me when a company is going to strike oil or gold then I'm all for it.

[The BOWMAN]

ignore TA at your own peril

I bet phaedrus makes a comfortable living from his investing using TA

have to remember that no system is perfect!!

Look, Footsie. If it is a very STRONG sale signal and at the mean time, no significant news coming out on PRC that should inflence its price a lot, yet the price movement is still not according to the prediction, then I'll have to call it totally busted. Don't take it personally. I am not directing this at Phaedrus. He seems to be probably the most strong TA guy in the forum. It the combination of strong TA skill plus strong signal doesn't work, then what works? You can't claim it is working if it is only 50% chance of being correct. Of course according to TA the down trend isn't yet completely broken. So I was asking at what price?

[bermuda]

ignore TA at your own peril

I bet phaedrus makes a comfortable living from his investing using TA

have to remember that no system is perfect!!

Absolutely Footsie. phaedrus is a legend. He would have made much more than me. He deals in day to day multiples. I only deal in 3 baggers in say 3 years.

I am not in that league. He knows it so well that it is a licence to print money.

But he knows how to pick them out. I dont . I have to rely on fundamentals so you see the handicap I am under?

I am starting to look at the top and bottom graphs and where the latest price is. lol

[peat]

Of course according to TA the down trend isn't yet completely broken. So I was asking at what price?
someone needs to answer the bowman his simple and straightforward question.
I would say it needs to hit a new high to break Phaedrus's downtrend, but some people might say different.

[Mysterybox]

have to remember that no system is perfect!!

No system is perfect.

But note the case of the PRC sellers selling at the resistance of 2.40 on the sell signal would have saved them a lot as I believe it crashed to 2.20 on the same day. This was an opportunity of arbitrage which many traders took advantage of thanks to TA.

[digger]

No system is perfect.

But note the case of the PRC sellers selling at the resistance of 2.40 on the sell signal would have saved them a lot as I believe it crashed to 2.20 on the same day. This was an opportunity of arbitrage which many traders took advantage of thanks to TA.


The trouble with this TA stuff is that the same people you have making the theoritical sell at 2-40 were taken out way back at 80 some cents and probably did not have the courage to get back in. Waiting for the confirmed uptrend to set in. None of this stuff is obvious except in history.
I think i will stick with the fundementials but many years ago i did play with beating the market.The only time i beat the market is with funds and staying the coa-rse.

[bermuda]

The trouble with this TA stuff is that the same people you have making the theoritical sell at 2-40 were taken out way back at 80 some cents and probably did not have the courage to get back in. Waiting for the confirmed uptrend to set in. None of this stuff is obvious except in history.
I think i will stick with the fundementials but many years ago i did play with beating the market.The only time i beat the market is with funds and staying the coa-rse.

Absolutely with you Digger. Daily trading clouds the brain and this TA stuff will definitely deprive you of a longterm prize.

[the machine]

from pike website to july 13, 2098m with 202m to go - progress for week 12m [since 10th]

a nice picture tunneling into the fault as well

M

[Robomo]

From Bloomberg.com today comes the following quote...


"We believe coal is now emulating oil,'' said analysts led by Melbourne-based Malcolm Southwood, who predict the price will be settled at $140 a ton in 2010 and 2011 (Thermal coal). ``In a world of limited spare capacity and sluggish supply growth, prices are rising to ration demand down to the levels of available supply.''

The brokerage also raised its forecast for hard coking coal in 2009, estimating a 10 percent gain to a record $330 a ton, compared with its earlier forecast of an 8 percent decline. Supply constraints following floods in Australia earlier this year and rising demand for steel will help to boost prices, it said. Macquarie also raised its coking coal forecast to $350 a ton for 2009. The contract price tripled to a record $300 a ton this year. "
Yes, the share price may go up and down on a daily basis but in the long term the outlook for HCC price is very bullish - my previous posts have quoted various sources at predicting $250, $285 and now $330 - $350 per tonne for Hard Coking Coal in 2009/10. Share Price (and dividends) for PRC can only go one way and that is up. Why anyone would want to sell on such exceptionally and consistently strong growth data is a mystery.

Good for me though as I topped up with more PRC at $2.04 last week. Average purchase price 99c since IPO. Sold none and now have 40% of portfolio value in PRC. Looking forward to those dividend cheques!

[tim23]

Gee did you buy a stack of cheap rights?

[The BOWMAN]

from pike website to july 13, 2098m with 202m to go - progress for week 12m [since 10th]

a nice picture tunneling into the fault as well

M

Does anyone know whether they are digging during the weekend as well, 10th to 13th, if not including weekend, that is only 2 days. If including weekend, that's 4 days.

[the machine]

Does anyone know whether they are digging during the weekend as well, 10th to 13th, if not including weekend, that is only 2 days. If including weekend, that's 4 days.

expect working weekends and possibly 2 shifts per day.

a bit more definition in what constitutes w/e 13th could help - as may include up until midnight on 12th for example.

remember as going through the fault then have to be very careful incase of methane being under pressure - slow and careful is the go.

M

[Robomo]

Gee did you buy a stack of cheap rights?

Only got 20% that I applied for at IPO. Picked up the rest on market from 87 - 95c. Then all the rights at 90c and a couple of tranches at $1.12 and $2.04. Average 99.6c. Might even pick up more if SP slumps on current market. Running out of money though which might make it a bit difficult so might have to cash in my Pumpkin Patch shares.

HCC price looks like it will hold or even increase over the next 2 years. Will re-assess then. Who knows what PRC might come up with if coal prices stay high - mining the deeper Paparoa seam, maximising extraction of the Brunner seam. Who knows, they may even seek to increase yearly extraction rates to take advantage of high spot prices.

I love PRC!

[scamper]

i do hope you are joking about still holding ppl...

[Robomo]

i do hope you are joking about still holding ppl...

I shamefully admit to still holding a few - sentiment. Still, one day they will come right (2011 perhaps).

[Footsie]

appears to be forming a head and shoulders top

thoughts from the TA experts

[bull....]

we dont have a head & shoulders top.

But we do have a very bearish kiss of death formation.

Goes like this , price breaks trendline , retraces and hits trendline where it reverses and plummets thru support which was previous low bounce at 2.02.

I dont know how to show chart , perhaps phreadrus will show you this pattern on a chart.

[Phaedrus]

"Myth buster TA episode" So how high does the PRC price have to rise before we can call this TA **** busted?
Bad news, I'm afraid. PRC has been falling ever since those well timed TA "Sell" signals were posted. You seem to have little concept of trend or the influence of market sentiment. On 3/7/08 when you noted "Seems a good time to buy" PRC was already in a downtrend. I hope for your sake that you didn't buy - it has fallen 20 cents since then.
Bowman, on 12/5/08 (page 143) I posted a PRC chart showing the strong uptrend and suggesting an exit strategy for when the uptrend ended (they all do, you know). I posted this chart because some people were then selling at around $1.60 which I felt was a mistake, commenting :- "So long as it is going up, you want to be holding". You replied "Couldn't agree more". Perhaps you don't realise that this maxim has an obvious corollary - "So long as it is going down, you don't want to be holding". It appears that TA is fine when it agrees with you, but $hit when it doesn't!
Let me answer your arrogant, dismissive and ignorant question with one that I posed over 2 months earlier :-
What would the PRC shareprice have to do to convince you to take your profits? How much are you prepared to give back to the market?

Bermuda, I was quite disappointed when you said "I am right behind Bowman on this one (writing TA off as ****) I could never bring myself to study TA. Studying it confuses you". Only a fool would say "I could never bring myself to study FA" and you are just as foolish to totally disregard TA and the powerful effects of market sentiment.

Digger, I generally enjoy your posts, but you talk nonsense sometimes :- "The trouble with this TA stuff is that the same people you have making the theoritical sell at 2-40 were taken out way back at 80 some cents....". Look at the chart, man. The 2007 September - December uptrend gave an exit at around $1.10.
".... and probably did not have the courage to get back in, waiting for the confirmed uptrend to set in". Look at the chart I posted on 2/4/08 on page 119. In it I pointed out that PRC was in an uptrend, was being accumulated, the OBV was rising and there was a Bullish divergence. No courage needed there to make an entry at $1.06 - $1.08
"None of this stuff is obvious except in history." What garbage. The 6 sell signals I posted on 8/7/08 (page 168) were triggered by weakness that had already been commented on by Taijon, Bull..., AMR, Footsie and others. These people all saw it without the benefit of hindsight - why can't you?

Bermuda responded "Absolutely with you Digger.... this TA stuff will definitely deprive you of a longterm prize". What rot!. For example, TA got me into FBU, kept me there for 7 years (while it went from $2 to $12) then got me out before the subsequent downtrend swallowed the lion's share of the profit. You would benefit by paying more attention to market sentiment, Bermuda. It has a very powerful influence over shareprices. I note that you have no problem with TA when it agrees with you ("Thanks Phaedrus") but then agree with Bowman and Digger that it is **** when it generates sell signals on one of your pet stocks.

I must say that I am surprised at the anti-TA sentiment expressed here, particularly when it was triggered by the posting of a particularly clear, strong, timely and accurate series of Sell signals. There is no point in shooting me though - I am only the messenger, bringing news from the outside world. A world where market sentiment is stronger than fundamentals - for extended periods of time. Tough TA!

The market was up over 27 points today. PRC went down another 5 cents - a good stock to be out of at the moment. No-one can say how far this downtrend will run, but to show just how even-handed I am, here is an update of the chart - note the presence of a confirmed downward trendline (magenta). A break of this (ideally with a rising OBV) would give a logical re-entry point. See? - I like PRC too!

http://h1.ripway.com/Phaedrus/PRC721.gif

Footsie, yes, I guess you could say that a bearish "head and shoulders" is being formed, but I don't see it as being very relevant, since all the sell signals were triggered 2 weeks ago.....

[bermuda]

Phaedrus, Points noted.

I have never liked the charts but just like good stories. That is why I got into NZO at 26 cents. I knew it was a good longterm story and it still is. There were a lot of ups and downs on the way up and I agree if I had your experience I could have made a lot more. But I dont trade, just buy in and hold..and sometimes it does take a very long time. I would be a hopeless trader.I would worry too much and I dont like worrying.

Market sentiment is a huge factor to be reckoned with. That is why I like PRC.and VPE. Two companies with market sentiment against them just like the early days with NZO. I reckon that at one stage there was only Digger, me and a few others that believed in it.

NZO will have its day and whilst your charts might show PRC as a sell, I would be buying on any weakness because fundamentally any company that has its income tripled will perform.

I am trying to learn a bit more about charting but I do like fundamentals first and foremost.

I will learn from your comments and appreciate your posts.

[zorba]

PRC pull back over the last couple of weeks has contributed to recent decline in NZO.

Looking at PRC fundamentals includes considering future pricing for input materials and energy costs for steel making ......

I watch website below for info on trends in these costs ...... these input prices are sensitive to demand for steel.

A good guide for overall health of new steel prices is the column on scrap prices ..... any weakness in steel scrap prices will signal reduction in demand for steel, and hence reduction in demand for iron ore and coking coal.

Iorn ore and coking coal prices are set once a year in April, but scrap steel prices are effectivel spot prices (averaged over amonth) and thus provide up to date info on robustness of global steel industry, and this gives a steer on demand for coking coal going forward.

Scrap steel prices currently very robust and on an upward trend -- and provided global economy does not stall (recent IMF estimate is for 4.1% growth this year) then looks like coking coal prices will hold up into next year.

http://www.steelonthenet.com/commodity_prices.html

First coal in August will be a very significant milestone for PRC -- I'm picking a good bounce in the share price.

Phaedrus -- thx for your illuminating PRC and NZO graphs and comments !!

[The BOWMAN]

Bowman, on 12/5/08 (page 143) I posted a PRC chart showing the strong uptrend and suggesting an exit strategy for when the uptrend ended (they all do, you know). I posted this chart because some people were then selling at around $1.60 which I felt was a mistake, commenting :- "So long as it is going up, you want to be holding". You replied "Couldn't agree more". Perhaps you don't realise that this maxim has an obvious corollary - "So long as it is going down, you don't want to be holding". It appears that TA is fine when it agrees with you, but $hit when it doesn't!
Let me answer your arrogant, dismissive and ignorant question with one that I posed over 2 months earlier :-
What would the PRC shareprice have to do to convince you to take your profits? How much are you prepared to give back to the market?


Phaedrus. As I mentioned in one of the posts that my question wasn't personal attack on you. I have been trying to seek evidence for a long time whether TA should be a valid share investment decision making tool. The information from your posts have always been impressive. After reading your chart I decided to give it a shot and sold 70% of my PRC holding at the price of $2.04-$2.05 even when I believe the true value is somewhere around $3 in a not too long distance. So I was nervous and then in the following two days the price shot up to $2.20+. I wasn't impressed and I was eager to find out when this sale will be proven wrong, from TA's perspective. Therefore the question was asked, wording is a bit strong as because of the frustration. So applogize here and keep posting.

And by the way, just looking back at page 143, I was agreeing on the "selling half" comment not on the TA up trend.

[The BOWMAN]

Now let's talk about the tunneling. The progress for last week is 9 meters! That means another three weeks to get out of the fault line (50 meters estimated)? Then it is switching the equipment and tunnel for another 150 meters. I think another one month delay is inevitable. Market wouldn't like that too.

[bermuda]

Now let's talk about the tunneling. The progress for last week is 9 meters! That means another three weeks to get out of the fault line (50 meters estimated)? Then it is switching the equipment and tunnel for another 150 meters. I think another one month delay is inevitable. Market wouldn't like that too.

I have been telling my mates that getting through the fault is worth 20 cents and hitting the coal is worth another 20 cents. Still think I am right.

And getting it to Lyttelton.??? Got to be good for you.

[glennj]

I sold part of my holding at 2.48 on 1st July to lock in some profits. Not TA based but the price was getting ahead of itself. In hindsight maybe I should have sold the lot but am going to hang in there with the rest till coal is reached & we see what sort of production & delivery can be achieved.
Delays are of concern. The sceptics seem to have been right that the tunneling forecasts were too optimistic.

[Footsie]

Thanks Phaedrus

I personally exited at 2.25, slightly before the sell signal as i felt sentiment had turned.
Noting that i tried in vain to get a higher price but the stock gapped down that morning.

IMHO TA become more important in a bear market as in a bear investors seem to ignore FA.

I own a stock in australia on a p.e of 2x..... and no it doesnt have debt issues. its just unloved. and in a downtrend :)

[Hoop]

Coal related stocks had a good bounce in the US markets overnight. Are we seeing a investor sentiment shift back to positive??

Disc: out of PRC at the moment

[winner69]

Bermuda - remember a few months ago I shared some stats about the number of new cities in China ............. go to page 34 of this preso from Orica
http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/showAnnouncementPDF.do?idsID=00861856

'Urbanisation' drives infrastructure and energy needs in China

Amazing picture eh (if I knew how to I would post the picture) and just highlights that this commodity cycle (demand wise at least) is only in its infancy ..... and so there will be a need for good old coking coal for many years to come

[Dr_Who]

When did NZO first drilled and discovered Coal for PRC? Just trying to assess the date from drill to commercial develpoment.

Also, how much coal are estimated in the mine?

I am trying to do some numbers for a Aussie coal mine in early stages similar to PRC.

Thanks

[digger]

When did NZO first drilled and discovered Coal for PRC? Just trying to assess the date from drill to commercial develpoment.

Also, how much coal are estimated in the mine?

I am trying to do some numbers for a Aussie coal mine in early stages similar to PRC.

Thanks

Try the 2007 annual report.I think i have seen both your questions there,as well as the possible extra coaL FURTHER DOWN.

[bermuda]

Bermuda - remember a few months ago I shared some stats about the number of new cities in China ............. go to page 34 of this preso from Orica
http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/showAnnouncementPDF.do?idsID=00861856

'Urbanisation' drives infrastructure and energy needs in China

Amazing picture eh (if I knew how to I would post the picture) and just highlights that this commodity cycle (demand wise at least) is only in its infancy ..... and so there will be a need for good old coking coal for many years to come

Thanks Winner.
I understand it completely and so does Matt Simmons. This China thing is bigger than you can get your head around. Another 10% growth forecast. Even if it fell to 2% we still have huge demand. Coking coal prices stay high for a long time. Steel is in big demand and some steel mills have had to close due to a lack of coking coal. Imagine how good PRC are going to look once production and the secure supply route are proven. PRC will become a world rated coking coal supplier earning enormous income with long term reserves. Buy on any weakness.

Dr Who,
I cant quite remember when NZO first did a drill for coking coal but it was plus ten years ago. What an enormous fight they had on their hands. Full marks to Gordon Ward for his perseverance which after a few more months of delay, will finally bring home the bacon.

In fact we are planning a BIG party at Lake Brunner to coincide with the first rail delivery of this beautiful coking coal to Lyttelton. We plan to throw the empty champagne bottles on top of the coal. The end user will think this coking coal has silicon in it.

This is going to be a massive earner . Well done NZO/PRC.

In the meantime buy on any weakness which will be fuelled by the doubters or those that deliberately manipulate the price downwards for their own gain.

[Xerof]

Doc,

A bit tough to do a comparison - HCC exclusive is non-existent in the Ozzie market

Also, PRC has been very much influenced by the price developments during the big dig, so again, you will struggle to gain anything meaningful

Suggest you read through some of the published research on the PRC site, which does some comparisons with a few Oz coys, as best they could.

[Dr_Who]

In fact we are planning a BIG party at Lake Brunner to coincide with the first rail delivery of this beautiful coking coal to Lyttelton. We plan to throw the empty champagne bottles on top of the coal. The end user will think this coking coal has silicon in it.



CLASSIC! LOL :D

You da aman. I can imagine Bermuda running around nude on top of the coal train with a bottle of Dom.

[zorba]

Bermuda,

Grand "first coal train" party at the Moana Hotel ??

Sounds great !!

Count me in !!

Zorba

[bermuda]

Bermuda,

Grand "first coal train" party at the Moana Hotel ??

Sounds great !!

Count me in !!

Zorba

We are going out on a houseboat to a place where there is no trace of mankind. No lights. no engine noises. no telegraph poles, no pollution. Just a private beach and a driftwood barbeque.

And the next day we will put the empties on top of the coal.

This has been a huge effort and deserves something special.

[Bilo]

CLASSIC! LOL :D

You da aman. I can imagine Bermuda running around nude on top of the coal train with a bottle of Dom.
I think thats enough to put me off even considering attendance.

[Billy Boy]

Disc: out of PRC at the moment
1420 pm
You might have missed the dip Hoop
Buying 206 Selling 208
BB

[RossT]

When did NZO first drilled and discovered Coal for PRC? Just trying to assess the date from drill to commercial develpoment.

The area was first drilled in the mid 80's. ( My father was one of the drillers ).

[Dr_Who]

The area was first drilled in the mid 80's. ( My father was one of the drillers ).

Thanks RossT. It has been a very long and hard road for the long term NZO shareholders. Those that held on and able to benefit from the sp movement are well deserving.

[tim23]

Do the delays really matter at this stage?

[RossT]

Do the delays really matter at this stage?

First coal at or around the end of August is simply not going to happen. I can't see the market keeping the sp supported. Don't forget at the end of the 192 meters to go, there is 40,000 tonnes of rock/coal mix to work thru before clean coal comes out so the definition of "first coal" is open to interpretation. As bullish as the market is on HCC all I can see between now and "first coal" is further delays and a downtrending share price.

[Corporate]

First coal at or around the end of August is simply not going to happen. I can't see the market keeping the sp supported. Don't forget at the end of the 192 meters to go, there is 40,000 tonnes of rock/coal mix to work thru before clean coal comes out so the definition of "first coal" is open to interpretation. As bullish as the market is on HCC all I can see between now and "first coal" is further delays and a downtrending share price.


RossT - it seems to me that people are very short-term in their thinking. This is especially highlighted by your comment. I must admit I probably display these characteristics too.

What does it "Really" matter if first coal is in August or December, as long as it comes out of the ground this year.

I guess it depends on your investing style.

[RossT]

RossT - it seems to me that people are very short-term in their thinking. This is especially highlighted by your comment. I must admit I probably display these characteristics too.

What does it "Really" matter if first coal is in August or December, as long as it comes out of the ground this year.

I guess it depends on your investing style.

The day my "investing style" invloves keeping money in a downtrending stock so my profits are simply given back to the market, is probably the day I realise I shouldn't be investing.

[Rabbi]

What does it "Really" matter if first coal is in August or December, as long as it comes out of the ground this year.

Entirely agree; and don't forget PRC have plenty of time to deliver on their prospectus forecast of 200,000 tonnes in this financial year. I would be surprised if they couldn't achieve that forecast although the predicted 1m tonnes a year for the following year seems to me a bit optimistic. They base this on the assumption that the hydro cutting equipment will ramp up production, however I remain cautious and hope my skepticism is not warranted.;)

[upside_umop]

I tend to disagree with 'what does it really matter'...

Its all about sentiment created, honesty, continuous disclosure and trust of the management. This all pushes the sp down. They knew about the delay but failed to disclose it straight away - not continous disclosure.

I sold out yesterday during middle of day, only got 1.95..but i agree with RossT that this will downtrend a little further.

Im of the opinion the SP will lag the valuations given by mcdougall stuart and a like for sometime. This is as they say in the report that full valuations wont be realised until the 1mtpa is happening (independent report put medium risk onthem achieving this). May look to re-enter...but im quite happy with my indirect exposure from here with NZO.

[Rabbi]

The only methane from the mine is coming out of their rear ends. Quite comparable to the posters on here really.

Another constructive informative post.:p

[digger]

The only methane from the mine is coming out of their rear ends. Quite comparable to the posters on here really.

The biggest % of all abusive posts come from new posters,whereas those that have been around for awhile tend to clash over ideas.Naturally we have to welcome new members but it always seems that it does in the early stages allow slime to emerge from cesspool as Vince has recently reported

[Grand Uber]

The only methane from the mine is coming out of their rear ends. Quite comparable to the posters on here really.


you being the prime example

[bermuda]

The biggest % of all abusive posts come from new posters,whereas those that have been around for awhile tend to clash over ideas.Naturally we have to welcome new members but it always seems that it does in the early stages allow slime to emerge from cesspool as Vince has recently reported

Digger, I really cant be bothered with these guys. I had enough of it with NZO's snipers etc.

Unless Vince can clean this sort of stuff up and keep this site informative , I am out of here.

[Dr_Who]

Digger, I really cant be bothered with these guys. I had enough of it with NZO's snipers etc.

Unless Vince can clean this sort of stuff up and keep this site informative , I am out of here.


Bermuda, dont go bro! Just use the ignore button you have at your disposal. Ignore the posters that you want to ignore and it is all solved.

This forum is abit like the real world, there are the minority that spoilt it for the rest of us, but doesnt mean we cant have a good community.

If you go, who else is gonna tell us the good oiler stocks to invest in?

[Hoop]

Bermuda, dont go bro! Just use the ignore button you have at your disposal. Ignore the posters that you want to ignore and it is all solved.

This forum is abit like the real world, there are the minority that spoilt it for the rest of us, but doesnt mean we cant have a good community.

If you go, who else is gonna tell us the good oiler stocks to invest in?

Well said Dr Who
We all have differing ideas and principles some people are informative some aren't. My thrill in posting is to be part of a family..yes we squabble and the occassional outsider (sniper) will come in and upset our inner circle...but thats life.
Our best known sniper we all accept is Cujo... our(sharetrader) rabid family pet. I actually find it light relief especially some of the sharetrader family hitting back remarks. If it gets out of hand Vince is there to correct.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Quote:
Originally Posted by Hoop http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/images/buttons/viewpost.gif (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?p=213798#post213798)
Disc: out of PRC at the moment

1420 pm
You might have missed the dip Hoop
Buying 206 Selling 208
BB
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
No I don't think PRC has bottomed out yet.. made a few wrong decisions lately so my opinion is probably worthless:). (Hope that doesn't make Bermuda hit the ignore button;))
BB r u still in PRC?


PPP only

[Billy Boy]

Well said Dr Who
No I don't think PRC has bottomed out yet.. made a few wrong decisions lately so my opinion is probably worthless:). (Hope that doesn't make Bermuda hit the ignore button;))
BB r u still in PRC?
PPP only
I sold a few a while back but no enough still got 150K.
Will wait and see what happens when they go through
the fault (I expect a spike) Then I dont think much will
excite the market gods until "first coal" (another spike).
Then boardum um um !! for a bit. depending on coal prices.
Digger posted the CHINA factor. Very interesting. Others
(jurno's) have been saying the same and of course the
other side of the fence, blows it's bugle. So who knows ?
Bermuda will be giving us both a windup, so put on your
tin hat, coz he is usually right.

APX !!! cant find the/a thread . Very interesting......
anybody ????:)
Cheers BB

[tim23]

The co have said despite the delays they will meet forecast production this f/y and the company have duty to keep market informed, I am relaxed at this stage.

[Xerof]

Somebody's accumulating.... decent special block crossings all day yesterday, filled bids consistently replaced with more of the same, then at 12 mins past beer o'clock, a decent sized trade at 210

:cool::cool:

[Billy Boy]

Unless Vince can clean this sort of stuff up and keep this site informative , I am out of here.
Bermuda.
You are one of the top and most respected posters on this forum.
Dont let this germ get under your skin, coz if you do, he/she has
beaten you !!. And that's not you surely ??
respectfully BB:)

[bermuda]

Bermuda.
You are one of the top and most respected posters on this forum.
Dont let this germ get under your skin, coz if you do, he/she has
beaten you !!. And that's not you surely ??
respectfully BB:)

He has got a bit better lately but honestly I just cant be bothered with posters that dont contribute to healthy debate. We all have different opinions and they do help determine one's own.

But mindless comments I am not part of. I find Sharescene is a lot more informative but possibly due to the fact I have aussie shares.

Antway, I hope Peter Whittall and Gordon Ward keep the market fully informed on Pike. If there is going to be a delay, let's here about it as soon as. I am sure Gordon knows what I am talking about. I have told him so many times how important it is...especially way back in the old NZO days.

This is a big international project with international shareholders selling into an international market at international prices...a bit like Coal Seam Gas. (As an aside good to see that
that the Chairman of Roma has stated that Don Juan looks good for BOW/( VPE ) and interesting to see Origin up nicely today)

[shasta]

He has got a bit better lately but honestly I just cant be bothered with posters that dont contribute to healthy debate. We all have different opinions and they do help determine one's own.

But mindless comments I am not part of. I find Sharescene is a lot more informative but possibly due to the fact I have aussie shares.

Antway, I hope Peter Whittall and Gordon Ward keep the market fully informed on Pike. If there is going to be a delay, let's here about it as soon as. I am sure Gordon knows what I am talking about. I have told him so many times how important it is...especially way back in the old NZO days.

This is a big international project with international shareholders selling into an international market at international prices...a bit like Coal Seam Gas. (As an aside good to see that
that the Chairman of Roma has stated that Don Juan looks good for BOW/( VPE ) and interesting to see Origin up nicely today)

Bermuda

If you find the posts offensive, report them & let Vince sort it out.

Alternatively, put individual users on ignore if they are no more than just trolls.

I'm sure Vince still moderates the site?

[Xerof]

More large Block Special Crossings today - if these aren't just transfers between related parties, might be significant. Any of the Brokers able to comment?? Perhaps an updated shareholder list might be useful.......

[zorba]

.
Exchange rate NZ$/US$ down over 1% today, now at 0.7422 ..... sub 0.74 by end of day ??

Bollard and RB now easing interst rates to cushion recession .....

NZ$/US$ below 0.70 sooner rather than later.

Excellent for exporters ...... excellent for PRC and NZO !!

And its great that heaps of expensive machinery, drilling, platforms, gear, plant and infrastructure for Tui, Kupe and Pike has been paid for while NZ$ was high.

.

[777]

More large Block Special Crossings today - if these aren't just transfers between related parties, might be significant. Any of the Brokers able to comment?? Perhaps an updated shareholder list might be useful.......

With this electronic age perhaps it is about time companies published their major shareholders more than once annually. They all have websites so it would not be a lot of work involved. It probably should also be lengthened out to the top 50 or 100.

[Xerof]

NZO's top 20 is relatively up to date on their website, maybe they intend to do just that

McD is right though - whats the point....it's usually ACC plus 50 or so Nominee Coys repeated ad finitum across the NZX companies

[777]

NZO's top 20 is relatively up to date on their website, maybe they intend to do just that

McD is right though - whats the point....it's usually ACC plus 50 or so Nominee Coys repeated ad finitum across the NZX companies


A good reason then to extend it beyond top 20.

[clips]

how much coal can you get in an open train carriage ?

[RossT]

how much coal can you get in an open train carriage ?

50 tonne per wagon. There is a transport chain fact sheet on the Prc website in the "Reports" tab with all the relevant numbers.

[RossT]

Activities report out for 30 June, also more detailed Tunnel progress blurb on the website.

Ventilation shaft now scheduled for completion in December, not October.

$16.2 million revolving credit facility has been obtained, (secured against tunnel equipment ). The $63 million left from the rights issue plus this new debt facility ( drawn when needed ) will fund PRC until full production.

PRC have a rights issue, taking in $97.4 million to fund mine until production but now need to arrange a $16.2 million debt facilty secured against mining equipment ( ? ).

[RossT]

Weeks progress up until yesterday =

5 meters.

[zorba]

.

RossT,

I guess you have read the text in this tunnel progress diagram from the PRC website.

Particularly the last part of the text on the right hand side of the diagram.


http://www.pike.co.nz/about-pike-river-coal/Tunnel-scaled.jpg/image_view_fullscreen



Z

.

[digger]

I sold out heaps of these to fund into NZO option conversion but yesterday bought back in a small holding of 20000.It feels good to be back in,this is too exciting to not have a direct holding..
The slowness of drilling is only important now.In a few years time most will have long forgotten that the fault even existed.Just make sure there is no accidents as that would lead to a massive SP fall. So slow and steady in this fault,please.

[zorba]

.

Good one Digger, I also have a modest direct holding, main exposure is through NZOG.

Quarterly Report -- looks like excellent progress is being made, and agree tunnelling and safety is something that is absolutely critical, so steady as she goes, no need to rush things, the upside is huge !!

Z

[bk]

I am trying to locate the mine and / or the access roads on Google Earth, but no success. Does anyone have the exact coordinates? And then again, maybe there is nothing to be seen, or maybe Google is a couple of years behind.

Anyway, my guess is somewhere 42.12S 171.27E

[sideline]

I am trying to locate the mine and / or the access roads on Google Earth, but no success. Does anyone have the exact coordinates? And then again, maybe there is nothing to be seen, or maybe Google is a couple of years behind.

Anyway, my guess is somewhere 42.12S 171.27E

Don't know the coordinates either, but yes, Google Earth is many years behind in most rural areas.
I think they only update populated areas on a more regular basis and with any decent resolution.

[zorba]

BK,

I tried your co-ordinates, I've landed up in the briny north of Greymouth, had to call out the coast guard !!

Z

[zorba]

BK,

Try about: 42°12'37.52"S 171°29'26.99"E

I think that will put you in the headwaters of the Pike Stream .....

On Google Earth there is no photographic evidence of the Pike mine, ie no new roads or surface facilities etc. So its 3 or 4 years out of date.

Z

.

[bk]

Thanks Zorba,

I'll keep a note of that - maybe we should send someone with GPS over there to confirm it. Would be nice to see an independent trace of our investment, but then again, $$$$ in the PRC bank in the not to far future will confirm the existence too

[Billy Boy]

I dont think they have updated for about 3 - 4 years
I cut some trees down about 3 and a bit yrs ago
Google recon i still have them !!! :confused:
BB

[Xerof]

In a faultless display of workmanship, PW and his team have delivered.

For those pussies waiting to buy once the project becomes derisked, proceed with all haste fella's :D:D

[bermuda]

In a faultless display of workmanship, PW and his team have delivered.

For those pussies waiting to buy once the project becomes derisked, proceed with all haste fella's :D:D

Ran into PW yesterday at the airport. No problems . As you say, get in now before this project gets rated.

[Sehnsucht888]

Its all good.... All explained.

Pike River Coal Limited (Pike River) has completed tunnelling through the Hawera Fault, the major remaining hurdle in its 2.3 kilometre tunnel being driven into the Paparoa Range on the West Coast to reach a rich seam of premium hard coking coal.
Tunnelling slowed to approximately one metre a day as miners worked carefully through the fault and an adjacent area of heavily crushed rock before hitting competent (less fractured) rock and better tunnelling conditions again over the weekend.
That leaves just 182 metres of remaining tunnelling to reach the Brunner coal seam where Pike River plans to extract at least 17.6 million tonnes over the next 18 years.
General Manager Mines Peter Whittall says “while it’s possible more fractured rock could again be found in this area near the fault, the most difficult mining challenge is over and tunnel advance rates are expected to improve significantly.”
He says “getting through the fault and crushed zone has been slow and difficult, with frequent stops for concrete reinforcing, but the good news was virtually no water and little gas has been encountered to date.”

[Sehnsucht888]

good for PRC and NZO shareprice finish for the day too..

[Rabbi]

Yes, if you aren't on board you better get on board quick.

The pike train is leaving the station! :D:D:D

[AMR]

Would have expected the ASX shares to be going bananas by now if it was really great and unexpected news...

[Sehnsucht888]

I don't think there was anything unexpected. There was just an element of doubt put into peoples minds by some posters (well one key one), suggesting that there had been major problems causing the delays, when all along Pike have simply been saying they have rejigged their plan.
This announcement just reinforces that all is good, and progressing well overall, if not to original plan.

Gee, a plan for a mammoth project changing its order on some tasks- how rare is that?

[Grand Uber]

Well knowing that they will be reaching the coal soon enough ive decided to jump back on the wagon. Nice simple company with a nice simple plan.

[Mysterybox]

Back into pike.

University of auckland business school just had a fire evacuation, never thought I'd have to buy stock during one of those lol.. students everywhere on the quad at the moment, waiting for fire engines..

[biker]

Yes, if you aren't on board you better get on board quick.

The pike train is leaving the station! :D:D:D

Yep, sure is, but it's steaming backwards. down about 4% today.

[Bilo]

I see that we have another "plain english" announcement. Could anyone (perhaps Brian R) explain to this foreign speaking person (a North Islander)what it means and why we need it? Please.

[AMR]

It means Liberty/Goldman Sachs have converted their loan into PRC shares at a price of $1.30.

A vote of confidence in PRC by a major institutional investor.

[BWR]

Bilo,

The securities regulations require notices when a substantial shareholding changes by more than 1%. Liberty Harbor have converted 50 of their 600 convertible bonds into ordinary shares, and it is the issue of these new shares which changes the percentages, through increasing the total shares on issue.

There has been no change to the shareholdings of the substantial security holders, other than the percentages arising from the total shares on issue increasing.

[Bilo]

Bilo,

The securities regulations require notices when a substantial shareholding changes by more than 1%. Liberty Harbor have converted 50 of their 600 convertible bonds into ordinary shares, and it is the issue of these new shares which changes the percentages, through increasing the total shares on issue.

There has been no change to the shareholdings of the substantial security holders, other than the percentages arising from the total shares on issue increasing.

Thank you Brian. I struggled to see.

[AMR]

BWR, I see you have NZOG's website as your home page. May I ask who you are and whether you have connections to NZO?

[bermuda]

BWR, I see you have NZOG's website as your home page. May I ask who you are and whether you have connections to NZO?

BWR is NZO's Secretary. It is very helpful to have his comments and Chris Roberts ( NZO PR Manager ) on the NZO site and occasionally on this site.

Nearly at the coal.

[Billy Boy]

I see that we have another "plain english" announcement. Could anyone (perhaps Brian R) explain to this foreign speaking person (a North Islander)what it means and why we need it? Please.
I Agree
Why cant we speak English anymore, (without a code book):mad:
I'll talk 2 Bill :D (U know the 1.... Billy Smurf :D)

BB:D

[RossT]

Glad to see I'm not the only one who read that news and wanted the plain english version. More share dilution.

I thought the $NZ falling well would be in Pikes favour but the sp is starting to look a bit ugly. The Pike train has definitely left the station alright. Could be some good buying opportunities come first coal tho at this rate.

[OutToLunch]

Glad to see I'm not the only one who read that news and wanted the plain english version. More share dilution.

I thought the $NZ falling well would be in Pikes favour but the sp is starting to look a bit ugly. The Pike train has definitely left the station alright. Could be some good buying opportunities come first coal tho at this rate.

The way PRC is falling you'd think the coal had evaporated. This could present a good buying opportunity for some, with the chance of a rapid payback when PRC announce that they've finally reached the coal seam.

Edit: Jeez I should put have me glasses on -- you pretty much already said that Ross. :-)

[Drone]

The way PRC is falling you'd think the coal had evaporated. This could present a good buying opportunity for some, with the chance of a rapid payback when PRC announce that they've finally reached the coal seam.

Edit: Jeez I should put have me glasses on -- you pretty much already said that Ross. :-)

Yeah crazy stuff, its a buy (as long as you don't mind a bit of volatility).

Disc: long PRC

[Dr_Who]

Can someone please paste a link to view the commodity coal prices and graph? Thanks.

I have a feeling coal prices have come down abit. Abit like all the other commodities and oil.

[Excelsior]

Can someone please paste a link to view the commodity coal prices and graph? Thanks.

I have a feeling coal prices have come down abit. Abit like all the other commodities and oil.

Just been reading the article in the Listener about coal. Graph shows HCC trading at $50 per tonne from 1990 to 2004 and about $100 through 05 and 07 before peaking at about $300. I'd hate prices to return to their long term average! Begs the question why prices were so low back then even though there must have been strong demand with asian economic growth. Wondering how much speculation there's been with it. Fear of prices falling significantly has no doubt spooked the herd.
Bought some more PRC close to bottom today. Time will tell if it were a wise move.

[OutToLunch]

Can someone please paste a link to view the commodity coal prices and graph? Thanks.

I have a feeling coal prices have come down abit. Abit like all the other commodities and oil.

From memory when thermal coal prices fell back a bit recently a bit of a panic ensued about the roof falling in for anything to do with coal. PRC's kind of coal, the bee's knees of metallurgical coal, is of course quite a different beast to thermal coal. But all the market seems to hear is 'coal prices falling'! Even if coking coal prices fell back to $200 a tonne, PRC are still about to print money big time -- especially the way the bottom is dropping out of the NZD at the moment.

When I think about it -- perhaps with respect to coal prices we're seeing little more than the effect of the (temporary) strengthening of the USD?

[bermuda]

From memory when thermal coal prices fell back a bit recently a bit of a panic ensued about the roof falling in for anything to do with coal. PRC's kind of coal, the bee's knees of metallurgical coal, is of course quite a different beast to thermal coal. But all the market seems to hear is 'coal prices falling'! Even if coking coal prices fell back to $200 a tonne, PRC are still about to print money big time -- especially the way the bottom is dropping out of the NZD at the moment.

When I think about it -- perhaps with respect to coal prices we're seeing little more than the effect of the (temporary) strengthening of the USD?

Even minus 1% world growth still see HCC at over $US300.

[Rabbi]

Yes, if you aren't on board you better get on board quick.

The pike train is leaving the station! :D:D:D

This train has been hijacked by the- " I feel afraid, so I better jump off the train brigade".

I'm staying on board even though international sentiment might give us a rocky ride. Barring an unforeseen catastrophe, once the contractor reaches the coal, this stock is-as OutTo Lunch so aptly put it- a license to print money. And if the share price does get fundamentally out of kilter with the cash flow projections, watch a predator swoop in with a takeover.

As an aside, just been reading this on Bloomberg...



Hidili Says Coking Coal Prices to Trade at Record (Update3)
By Helen Yuan
July 9 (Bloomberg) -- Hidili Industry International Development Co. (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=1393%3AHK), southwestern China's largest producer of coking coal, said purchases by steelmakers for rebuilding after the May earthquake will keep prices at a record through 2009.
Hidili shares rose as much as 5.3 percent after Board Secretary Xu Hui said profit (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=1393%3AHK) will double this year as mine closures in China limit supplies. The company is based in Panzhihua, Sichuan province, where the quake killed more than 69,000 and rebuilding will cost $73 billion.
A doubling in China's coking coal prices this year has failed to deter expansion by steelmakers, which are forecast to increase output by 10 percent in 2008. Hidili has climbed 88 percent since trading (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=1393%3AHK) started in Hong Kong in September.
``Coal producers' profit will rise this and next year,'' said Zhang Feng (http://search.bloomberg.com/search?q=Zhang+Feng&site=wnews&client=wnews&proxystylesheet=wnews&output=xml_no_dtd&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&filter=p&getfields=wnnis&sort=date:D:S:d1), a Hong Kong-based analyst at JPMorgan Chase & Co. ``Steelmakers so far can pass on the higher costs, but their profit margins will be eroded.''
Hidili (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=1393%3AHK) gained 3.2 percent to close at HK$12.80 in Hong Kong today.
Steelmakers Want More
``Demand from steelmakers is very strong,'' said Xu in a phone interview. Xu declined to give specific profit or price forecasts. Hidili posted a 2007 profit of 570.3 million yuan ($84 million).
China's coking coal prices jumped to 1,900 yuan a ton this year, said Hao Xiangbin (http://search.bloomberg.com/search?q=Hao+Xiangbin&site=wnews&client=wnews&proxystylesheet=wnews&output=xml_no_dtd&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&filter=p&getfields=wnnis&sort=date:D:S:d1), deputy director of information at China Coal Transport & Distribution Association. Demand from steelmakers may rise 6 percent this year, outpacing a supply increase, he said.
China, the world's fastest-growing major economy, may boost steel output by as much as 10 percent to 540 million metric tons this year, according to the China Iron and Steel Association. Reconstruction work in Sichuan will cost more than 500 billion yuan over the next three years, Deutsche Bank AG said in June.
Chinese coal producers have been expanding capacity for energy coal to meet demand from power plants, which has led to limited new supplies of coking coal, Xu said.
The Chinese government have also been shutting thousands of small and unsafe mines in the country, aggravating the shortfall.
High Profit Margins
International supplies of coking coal have been crimped this year because of flooding in Australian mines owned by BHP Billiton Ltd, the largest exporter of the fuel.
Hidili's profit margins will exceed 70 percent this year, and the company may maintain the margins until the end of 2009, Xu said.
``The 70 percent profit margin could make it outshine the other Hong Kong-listed Chinese coal miners, which have margins of about 50 percent,'' JPMorgan's Zhang said. `The coal shortage may get worse this winter on transportation clogs.''
Chinese train operators have cut normal services to help with relief efforts in Sichuan. Shipping energy coal to power plants in winter is also a priority to prevent blackouts.
Hidili aims to boost production capacity fivefold to 10 million tons in the next three to five years through acquisitions in southern China to benefit from the rising demand.
The company supplies coal to steelmakers in southern and western China, including Panzhihua Iron & Steel Group and Liuzhou Iron & Steel Group.
It aims to supply Baosteel Group Corp., the nation's largest mill, and Wuhan Iron & Steel Group (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=600005%3ACH), as they each build a 10 million-ton steel plant in the region, Xu said.
Baosteel and rivals are also paying more for iron ore, which almost doubled in prices this year because of limited supplies. Baosteel's coking coal costs may rise up to 60 percent this year from 2007, Helen Lau (http://search.bloomberg.com/search?q=Helen+Lau&site=wnews&client=wnews&proxystylesheet=wnews&output=xml_no_dtd&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&filter=p&getfields=wnnis&sort=date:D:S:d1), a Shanghai-based analyst at Daiwa Securities Group Inc., said.
``Larger steelmakers, such as Baosteel, are able to pass on the higher costs,'' Lau said. ``Small steel and iron producers can hardly survive because of a lack of scale.''

Advertisement: Do stocks outperform bonds? Learn about the power of an all-bond portfolio. (http://ads.bloomberg.com/RealMedia/ads/click_lx.ads/bloomberg/news/news/archive/story/page/L14/667947825/x20/Bloomberg/BBerg_house_textlinks_Stocks/Bloomberg_house_textlinks_books_.html/65556942566b69613949384141734765)

[bk]

-up due to forever increasing demand from China and India

-up due to electricity shortages closing mines in South Africa (lasts till 2011-2012?)

-up due to mines flooded in Australia (lasts till 2010?)

-down due to resource bubble bursting (?)

-up after the Olympics due to China reopening factories?


Seems to me still a lot of upwards pressure, but some of it might come off in the coming years. However, it might drop (for "our" type of coal from $300 to $200), but it is expected to stay well below the level required for PRC to make a profit.

And the tunnel is nearly complete; the steam engine is heating up, and soon that train will (finally) be leaving

[Bilo]

-up due to forever increasing demand from China and India

-up due to electricity shortages closing mines in South Africa (lasts till 2011-2012?)

-up due to mines flooded in Australia (lasts till 2010?)

-down due to resource bubble bursting (?)

-up after the Olympics due to China reopening factories?


Seems to me still a lot of upwards pressure, but some of it might come off in the coming years. However, it might drop (for "our" type of coal from $300 to $200), but it is expected to stay well below the level required for PRC to make a profit.

And the tunnel is nearly complete; the steam engine is heating up, and soon that train will (finally) be leaving

Surely a typo BK! The project was sanctioned on coal never getting much above USD100 per tonne.

[bk]

Surely a typo BK! The project was sanctioned on coal never getting much above USD100 per tonne.

make that ABOVE

[Dr_Who]

A bear kills all, even the strong. All the good oilers are getting hit hard in this market. The sentiment have changed and all are jumping ship. My Aussie oil portfolio is not looking too healthy. If you can pick this market right, you can make alot of money. The million dollar question is, when will it bottom out?

I agree there will be a time to pick up some cheap PRC. The question is, when? Just have a look at the Aussie Coal stocks, they are getting hit also. MCC is a T/O target and even they are getting hammered.

[duncan macgregor]

A bear kills all, even the strong. All the good oilers are getting hit hard in this market. The sentiment have changed and all are jumping ship. My Aussie oil portfolio is not looking too healthy. If you can pick this market right, you can make alot of money. The million dollar question is, when will it bottom out?

I agree there will be a time to pick up some cheap PRC. The question is, when? Just have a look at the Aussie Coal stocks, they are getting hit also. MCC is a T/O target and even they are getting hammered. HEY DOC, You are beginning to sound like me. The market will crash after the olympics, taking everything down with it. The time to buy PRC is not on dead cat bounces, but when the world order of things rights its self. The Yanks have done everything to commit financial suicide, even the President is doing his best, telling the Chinese what a pack of bastards they are, then heading there to the games. The American olympic team coming off a plane wearing face masks will help the cause along as well. IN business never allow the Chinese to lose face or thats your lot. The financial rug gets pulled on the American economy at the end of this year regardless of the cost. PRC will be very much cheaper regardless of fundamentals when it all hits the fan. Macdunk

[Dr_Who]

Yep, Mad Dunk, we finally agreed on something. I only invested a very small amount of my total cash position in oilers for fun. It was fun while it lasted .. LOL.

I agree with you with regards to the American's being a bunch of hypocrites. They will stab you in the back and then turn around and give you a big smile and tell you what a great person you are. Those American athletes that arrived in Beijing Airport with a mask on must have been a total insult to the Chinese. The smog in LA is just as bad as in Beijing, if not worst. And yes, I ve been to LA a number of times. I hear the Japs and Chinese carry 50% of US foreign debt. Sorry, abit off topic.

I do think the energy sector will bounce back, but need to see a bottom first.

[beacon]

... even the President is doing his best, telling the Chinese what a pack of bastards they are, then heading there to the games. The American olympic team coming off a plane wearing face masks will help the cause along as well. IN business never allow the Chinese to lose face or thats your lot. ..

very insightful MD, but isn't that true for any people...? Americans certainly aren't making many friends. But surely Chinese business is not so foolish as to cut off the nose to spite the face. Whether we like it or not, globalisation has intertwined our lives irrevocably. We live in a global village, whether we realise it or not ... yet.

[dsurf]

HEY DOC, You are beginning to sound like me. The market will crash after the olympics, taking everything down with it. The time to buy PRC is not on dead cat bounces, but when the world order of things rights its self. Macdunk

Er like the bounce at 85C or $1 - give up macd you have a terrible record on this one - you & Dr Who sound like the blind leading the blind - leave it to the blue eyed!

[Grand Uber]

Some big buys going through today, hopefully that stops the downtrend in its tracks.

The only reason its downtrending is because i decided to buy some. Sorry guys

[Dr_Who]

Er like the bounce at 85C or $1 - give up macd you have a terrible record on this one - you & Dr Who sound like the blind leading the blind - leave it to the blue eyed!

Na mate. I got my PRC below $1 during the rights issue. No matter when I sell, I still make a profit, cant see it going below $1. :D I ve been a big advocate of PRC below $1 loud and clear. Sorry if my sentence dont make sense, have had a few drinks this afternoon. :D:D:D

Have a good weekend and all enjoy the Olympics. Gold NZ!!! Please don do the haka, esp the white boys.

ps: .... and those American swimmers that swims with the dolphines can kiss my ass, cos the only gold you gonna see is oil at $200 after the Olympics. LOL

[bermuda]

Na mate. I got my PRC below $1 during the rights issue. No matter when I sell, I still make a profit, cant see it going below $1. :D I ve been a big advocate of PRC below $1 loud and clear. Sorry if my sentence dont make sense, have had a few drinks this afternoon. :D:D:D

Have a good weekend and all enjoy the Olympics. Gold NZ!!! Please don do the haka, esp the white boys.

ps: .... and those American swimmers that swims with the dolphines can kiss my ass, cos the only gold you gonna see is oil at $200 after the Olympics. LOL

My thoughts exactly. I have followed this from the beginning and meeting Peter Whittall last weekend at the airport just reinforced that.

A grossly undervalued share.

[Grand Uber]

This one will perform well once they hit coal

Lets not forget the McDouall Stuart valuation of $2.75 last month

at these levels thats a 50% increase, No wonder there have been some huge orders going through.

[Sideshow Bob]

More smoke.....

http://www.stuff.co.nz/4650609a13.html

Pike River sale talk before coal emerges
By GARRY SHEERAN - Sunday Star Times | Sunday, 10 August 2008


NZ Oil and Gas could sell its high- flying coal-mining offshoot Pike River Coal as early as next year, says McDouall Stuart analyst John Kidd.


The Pike River share price surged 133% from $1.05 in January to $2.45 before easing in July, but it remains the top performing stock on the NZX in 2008.

It has also been one of three significant drivers of the NZOG share price, along with the high price of oil and the start of production at the Kupe oil field, in which NZOG has a 15% stake.

"But coal is not NZOG's business, it is oil and gas," Kidd said. The sale of the oil exploration and production company's 31% stake in Pike River was just a matter of time, he said.

And with global coal prices high and likely to remain so, that could come sooner rather than later.

NZ Oil & Gas public affairs manager Chris Roberts said the company was not involved in any sales process now, but when that time came "we would want to maximise the value of Pike River, which is still being de-risked".

Pike River Coal expects to drill through to the coal seam in the Paparoa Ranges in Westland within weeks, and start producing coal by the end of the month.

But Kidd said production would really kick in around mid next year when hydro miners would ramp up production significantly. The high-quality coking coal will be shipped to Asia via Lyttelton.

"At that time the coal mine will be fully operational, all risks presumably overcome, and its value will start to become evident to prospective buyers."

He said at that stage the Pike River business could be valued on multiples of earnings rather than on a discounted cash flow basis as at present, and allow a realistic transaction value to emerge.

Prospective buyers of Pike River would be Australian mining concerns, including BHP and Xstrata. Kidd said those two companies had been bidding against each other in recent transactions and good prices were being paid for coal mines.

One of the factors which has helped drive coal prices up this year has been shipping constraints on the Australian eastern seaboard. Coal ships were lined up 25-deep outside Dalrymple in Queensland, the largest coal port in the world.

Other prospective buyers for Pike River were Chinese and Indian coal importers who wanted to secure supply chains. There are two Indian cornerstone shareholders on the Pike River Coal register.

Kidd said recent coal mining deals in Australia indicated a value for Pike River Coal could reflect a share price north of $3. The share was trading at $1.84.

[Rabbi]

It will be interesting to see what progress they make on the Tunnel this week, now they are through the fault.
As well as that there is the state of the market, with commodity prices falling and oil in particular getting whacked.
Definitely for those who can handle the Swings and Roundabouts.;)

[bull....]

The price has peaked.

With only one good piece of news left to come about the coal being reached, which is already priced in , the price will have trouble reaching new highs again.

Combine that with falling commodity prices and the future doesnt look that bright for the shareprice.

Of course news stories about nzog selling there stake can work in reverse as well and be a negative.

Good luck if you still hold.

[Grand Uber]

Do you not think a fully derisked project, a steady income stream and superb forcasted revenue is not a shareprice driver? A takeover offer is not a positive? Why would NOG be holding onto pike until next year if the price had appreciated fully already? Why would McDouall Stuart set a 12 month target of 2.75 if this had nowhere to go?

[bermuda]

Do you not think a fully derisked project, a steady income stream and superb forcasted revenue is not a shareprice driver? A takeover offer is not a positive? Why would NOG be holding onto pike until next year if the price had appreciated fully already? Why would McDouall Stuart set a 12 month target of 2.75 if this had nowhere to go?

Exactly Grand Uber, exactly.

Forecasted sales revenue now 3 times IPO forecast.

And a secure supply chain to boot.

[upside_umop]

Its not fully de-risked yet. It still has to prove its 1mtpa hyrdo mining...
The shareprice target is assuming that happens.
As for steady income, it could be a volatile period...people are freaked with commodities falling atm.
But, if you believe it will hold up, its definately a good time to be buying.
NZOG probably holding to maximize value by selling when it reaches 1mtpa.

[Bilo]

Its not fully de-risked yet. It still has to prove its 1mtpa hyrdo mining...
The shareprice target is assuming that happens.
As for steady income, it could be a volatile period...people are freaked with commodities falling atm.
But, if you believe it will hold up, its definately a good time to be buying.
NZOG probably holding to maximize value by selling when it reaches 1mtpa.

UD there is no such thing as "fully de-risked"
Hydro mining is proven in West Coast conditions and if it doesn't work as well as expected then they have plenty of cash to revert to plan B. You will be welcome to take your shovel...

[bull....]

Grand Uber - The project is not risk free , revenue is not guaranteed as per the first point , If anyone was serious about takeover of pike river surely they would have built a stake at lower prices.
Ask your self , Why do brokers pump stocks

[upside_umop]

UD there is no such thing as "fully de-risked"
Hydro mining is proven in West Coast conditions and if it doesn't work as well as expected then they have plenty of cash to revert to plan B. You will be welcome to take your shovel...

I was referring to the point GU was making about 'fully de-risked'...
In the markets opinion, the project would be 'fully de-risked' once the 'project' has lived up to all its expectations. Of course you cant take away unforseen risks such earthquakes etc. There will be other risks as well, coal price volatility for instance. But unforseen risks, and price volatility is not a project risk is it? Maybe it is...I remain confident it can be 'fully de-risked' project wise in the markets eyes that would reflect an analyst valuation (WACC will take into account risk that market percieves). Generally speaking though your right, it will never be risk free..otherwise by definition it would provide the same return as govt bonds!

The independent report thought otherwise. They placed medium risk on the assumption for prospectus of reaching 1mtpa with hydro mining....nothing has changed.

I have my shovel ready.

[Rabbi]

Grand Uber - The project is not risk free , revenue is not guaranteed as per the first point , If anyone was serious about takeover of pike river surely they would have built a stake at lower prices.
Ask your self , Why do brokers pump stocks

Well, The Indians have built a considerable stake at a very low price. If they do make a takeover and someone comes over the top of them, then they are in a win-win situation.

[Rabbi]

It will be interesting to see what progress they make on the Tunnel this week, now they are through the fault.


18 metres for the last week and further improvement expected.

Now only 164 metres to the coal seam.

The contractor will be ordering the Montieths for the big party, now looking like some time in September.

Go!!:D:D:D

[remy]

Can anyone on here tell me where i can find current coal prices online? google hasn't been much use

thanks

[AMR]

Remy, I think this might be it...also worth keeping an eye on the US Coal index.

http://www.findata.co.nz/Markets/StockQuote/NYMEX/QL.C.htm

[Toddy]

18 metres for the last week and further improvement expected.

Now only 164 metres to the coal seam.

The contractor will be ordering the Montieths for the big party, now looking like some time in September.

Go!!:D:D:D

They will have to get Helen down there with a pick and a hard hat to do the honours.

NZO could not have achieved Pike without the on going support of the Labour Govt. The red tape, resource consents, greenies, high interest rates, high NZ dollar, high labour rates etc etc

Maybe they could call the tunnel........... Helens hole.

Any other ideas.

[Xerof]

With the imminent change of government........Key Hole

:cool::cool:

[Toddy]

With the imminent change of government........Key Hole

:cool::cool:

Ha ha.

Are you suggesting that the solo mums get their overalls on and get grubby for 15 hours a week.

[Dr_Who]

Ha ha.

Are you suggesting that the solo mums get their overalls on and get grubby for 15 hours a week.

How much are they paying? $150k p/a?

[Wilkins_Micawber]

How much are they paying? $150k p/a?

They'll proabably expect more than than if they have to work for it. :rolleyes:

[remy]

Remy, I think this might be it...also worth keeping an eye on the US Coal index.

http://www.findata.co.nz/Markets/StockQuote/NYMEX/QL.C.htm



cheers how do i work out the HCC price from this

[Base Trader]

HCC prices are traded in a very small OTC fashion or via physical sales - hence, there is no ready source of price discovery. Quite simply at the moment the financial thermal coal and coking coal equities have tracked the oil complex - regardless of being driven by separate fundamenatals.

You can see this effect when Xstrata (top 3 largest coking coal trader globally) announced a US$362/MT physical contracts from for its annual coal contracts for Spet-Sept (they sell on a different year end compared to BHP driven March-March). Did the Aussie or PRC prices move (and considering both currencies were slumping too)? No - they all went south. Why? Because oil was tipping out of bed.

Fundamentally are oil and coal related? The answer is not really. We are no where near values that make it worth while to burning oil to generate power (for thermal coal) and it cannot help the steel making process (HCC).

We see on a fundamental level China's power woes are coal related and the struggle to produce enough coal to meet their 700m+ MT thermal coal requirements. I remain bullish on themal coal for this reason. On HCC - the disconect is even worse. There is a shortage at present resulting in US$362/MT 2009 prices with further supply shocks possible. China which is by a long way the largest consumer of HCC and has diverted infrastructure (rail, capital equipment etc) to thermal coal capacity. HCC is the poor cousin. Chinese HCC as a market in balance has the potential to add to global trade demand in a material way. Clearly I remain bullish HCC - even if I believe we will only retain current prices.

However, saying all this I sold all bar a small tranche of PRC at around $2.20 based on technical reasons and without seeing any catalyst to further value enhancement. I do believe value enhancement will be achieved once the mine is operating at the initial 200,000mt pa range. The next catalyst will be (in my mind) the March 2009 HCC contracts. I will accumulate - but I still see weakness related to the oil correlation it is trading under.

On the back of an envelope - the current depreciation of the USD to to 65 cents (which looks an almost certainty) and considering a US$362/MT price (I think US$350/MT will be achieved) and a 20% increase in cost projections - we get a EBITDA of NZ$430m on 1m mt pa mined. Clearly there remains considerable "fat" for lower production. Todays market cap is NZ$493m.

[RossT]

Well she's pretty much in free-fall now. $1.74 as I write this. Anyone keen to pick the bottom for Prc?

[Phaedrus]

So how high the PRC price has to rise to before we can call this TA **** busted?
Alternatively, how low does the PRC price have to fall to before we can call this TA **** vindicated?

http://h1.ripway.com/Phaedrus/PRC813.gif

This is an update of the chart posted 6 weeks ago. (Page 168, post #2511). It shows the latest price of $1.74 - the Close may be different.

[geezy]

Its back up strongly today . Wish it would've hit lower so I can pick some up :D

[wk6332]

04:39p.m.
PRC
18/08/2008
MINE

REL: 1639 HRS Pike River Coal Limited

MINE: PRC: Pike River Tunnel to hit coal late September 2008

PIKE RIVER (PRC) TUNNEL TO HIT COAL LATE SEPTEMBER 2008

The last push to complete a 2.3 kilometre access tunnel through to the rich
underground Brunner seam at Pike River's coal mine on the West Coast will
take one more month than expected due to continued variable rock conditions.

The breakthrough had been previously scheduled for around the end of August,
but will now occur towards the end of September 2008. The tunnel is currently
at 2,147 metres and has been advanced 29 metres in the two weeks since 4
August 2008.

On 4 August 2008, the tunnel had been cut through the Hawera fault and
advance rates were expected to significantly improve. This has happened but
not on a consistent basis. Tunnelling rates have improved to between 3 and 4
metres on some days, but rock conditions continue to be variable and quite
fractured resulting in rates of 1 to 2 metres on other days.

General Manager, Mines Peter Whittall says "With only 153 metres to go we're
getting close to breaking through. However, we were expecting to average 5
metres per day at this point. Those rates are not yet being achieved due to
variable rock conditions so we have reforecast completion at slower rates,
putting the tunnel into coal at the end of September."

Peter Whittall says "it is good news that there continues to be essentially
no water and relatively low levels of methane gas in the tunnel". Pike River
has been able to continue with drilling and blasting, but will seek to
install the roadheader at the face when rock conditions improve, as indicated
by previous drilling in the area.

Pike River is progressing amended detailed design of the pit bottom roadways
in coal which is expected to enable the company to meet its forecast 200,000
tonnes of coal production by 30 June 2009 despite the additional delay to
intersection with the coal seam.

The new date for hitting first coal has been reflected in an amendment to the
terms of the convertible bonds agreed with Liberty Harbor LLC, which now
requires first coal by 15 October 2008.

Other mine infrastructure and plant and equipment construction and delivery
continue to progress to schedule. The first of the Pike River continuous
miners sailed from Newcastle (NSW) on 17 August 2008 bound for New Zealand.
The second continuous miner is scheduled to follow in 6 to 8 weeks.
End CA:00168757 For:PRC Type:MINE Time:2008-08-18:16:39:41

[RossT]

First coal at or around the end of August is simply not going to happen. I can't see the market keeping the sp supported. Don't forget at the end of the 192 meters to go, there is 40,000 tonnes of rock/coal mix to work thru before clean coal comes out so the definition of "first coal" is open to interpretation. As bullish as the market is on HCC all I can see between now and "first coal" is further delays and a downtrending share price.

Todays news of yet another delay was no surprise and PRC have known this was coming. And yet only 8 days ago in this article, http://www.stuff.co.nz/4650609a13.html we have Mcdouall stuart analyst John Kidd telling the public that coal was expected to be produced by the end of this month.

Totally misleading.

Interesting to read that more new changes in the pit bottom "are expected to enable" PRC to still meet their production target of 200,000 tonnes. What this means in real speak is that as things stand they will not be meeting their initial production targets.

[bermuda]

Todays news of yet another delay was no surprise and PRC have known this was coming. And yet only 8 days ago in this article, http://www.stuff.co.nz/4650609a13.html we have Mcdouall stuart analyst John Kidd telling the public that coal was expected to be produced by the end of this month.

Totally misleading.

Interesting to read that more new changes in the pit bottom "are expected to enable" PRC to still meet their production target of 200,000 tonnes. What this means in real speak is that as things stand they will not be meeting their initial production targets.

Oh Dear Ross T,
How on earth would PRC have known this was coming? I mean they were drilling towards it.

And as Peter Whittall said to me,...they are still on target .

[RossT]

Oh Dear Ross T,
How on earth would PRC have known this was coming? I mean they were drilling towards it.

And as Peter Whittall said to me,...they are still on target .

Bermuda - On the 4th August we had news that the fault was through and with 182m to go the coal would be reached by the end of August. So they were miraculously going to pull over 50m a week for 3.5 weeks, ( far surpassing the average weekly tunnel advance to date ) in ground that not only would their mining experience have told them was going to be fractured, but also probably data from their historic topside drill program ?

An idiot, let alone an experienced mines manager could have told you at the start of August that there was a snowballs chance in hell of getting to 2300m by the end of August. As I stated in my post even back in July ( 22/07 ).

The information given on the 4/08 that the coal would be reached about the end of August was laughable and/or blatantly misleading. But yet another delay that some people will blindly swallow with the "it doesn't really matter, they're still on target" attitude, as the sp tracks further downward.

[Robomo]

Bermuda - The information given on the 4/08 that the coal would be reached about the end of August was laughable and/or blatantly misleading. But yet another delay that some people will blindly swallow with the "it doesn't really matter, they're still on target" attitude, as the sp tracks further downward.

So, shouldn't the NZX be asking what the basis of the information on 4/08 was, and why the huge change in prediction just 2 weeks later?

[Sehnsucht888]

"On 4 August 2008, the tunnel had been cut through the Hawera fault and advance rates were expected to significantly improve. This has happened but not on a consistent basis. Tunnelling rates have improved to between 3 and 4 metres on some days, but rock conditions continue to be variable and quite fractured resulting in rates of 1 to 2 metres on other days."

2 weeks ago, they expected to drill quickly.
2 weeks have passed and they have not increased speed as expected.

They have thus resigned themselves to the fact that going is likely to be slower than expected, and have reported it to market in a timely enough manner.

Maybe they were overly optimistic, but thems the breaks. They are mining something they can't control.

[upside_umop]

You can look at it that way 888...

Or you can look at it that they had 182m to go, bad days were 1-2 metres, and the 'good days' were 3-4 metres.

You cant tell me they were going to double that best rate when at best they were currently only getting 3-4m at very best.

Thanks RossT, I'm sure you have saved a few people some money.

[Sehnsucht888]

Since getting through the fault a good day is 3 to 4 metres, and bad a day is 1 to 2. They had expected to average 5 and be making better progress - which has not happened.

They have told the market. Thats the state of things.

I'm sure someone is making money..... or will be...

[Dr_Who]

Does it matter if it is a few weeks late? The coal is still there and the contract is at $300.

The only real question is.... is there a condition in the contract that PRC has to pay penalty fees if they cannot supply the coal on time?

[Mysterybox]

the date by which a material adverse event may be triggered if first coal is not achieved has been amended from 31 July 2008 to 15 November 2008.

15th November?!

Didn't they just say its expected late November? What is meant by 'material adverse event'? [This is in relation to bonds announcement on ASX]

[Robomo]

15th November?!

Didn't they just say its expected late November? What is meant by 'material adverse event'? [This is in relation to bonds announcement on ASX]

No, the PRC announcment said they expect to hit the coal seam late September.

[RossT]

No, the PRC announcment said they expect to hit the coal seam late September.

Correct Robomo, but I think Mystery is referring to Pike having been able to amend the terms of the converible bond issue with Liberty harbour which now requires coal by 15 October.

Mystery - I would assume the "material adverse event", potentially 15 Nov, would be Liberty harbour invoking a penalty on Prc for failing to meet their agreement regarding first coal.

[Excelsior]

Dr Who - it doesn't matter much if the first coal is a month late but it could matter if this implies the rock around the seam itself is more fractured and less stable than forecast. What sort of handle does above ground drilling give on below ground conditions anyone know. I guess at the moment we're still way too far from the seam to speculate about ground conditions at the mine. Most likely proximity to the fault crush zone is responsible for the more difficult ground conditions encountered at the mo.

[RossT]

Dr Who - it doesn't matter much if the first coal is a month late but it could matter if this implies the rock around the seam itself is more fractured and less stable than forecast. What sort of handle does above ground drilling give on below ground conditions anyone know. I guess at the moment we're still way too far from the seam to speculate about ground conditions at the mine. Most likely proximity to the fault crush zone is responsible for the more difficult ground conditions encountered at the mo.

"First coal is a month late" ?

One year ago, first coal was due March 08. Then on 18 Sept 07 ( 11 months ago ) a delay was announced putting first coal back to April 08, and subsequent delays now put first coal at the end of Sept 08.

In the last 11 months we have had incremental delays to first coal now totalling 6 months.

If, in 11 months, we can loose 6 months, then honestly how does that translate to Pikes credibility regarding their statements on coal production? 1,000,000 tonnes per year will actually be how much based on the last 11 months of accuracy?

Regarding ground conditions at the seam - Anns in early 08 stated new bore holes had been drilled at 2300m resulting in a downgrade of inital coal volumes due to increased rock ( 40,000 tonnes ) needing to be excavated to align the tunnel grade with the seam. Also bores holes at the ventilation shaft site showed worse ground conditions than expected resulting in a change from Alimak style gound construction to Raise bore method construction. ( Additional $5,000,000 allocated ).

So to answer your query, I'd say ground conditions at the seam/tunnel juncture would be very well known, seeing as how the 2 drilling programs above are additional to the extensive drilling program done to assess the mines viability in the first place.

[dsurf]

Patience is required with this stock. The IPO was 3/4/5 years late depending where you drew the line. 6 months late is not good news of course but there could have been a lot of far worse news - water, gas, lack of skilled labour, double handling in transport route, industrial action, mine collapse etc etc

Remember it is a 20 year (minimum more likely 40 with the other seam) project that is getting de-risked quickly. Production forecasts will likely prove to be too high for the first (200k) and second (1m) year but should be achievable by the third year

But don't forget it is worth 3 times as much compared to initial forecasts, so don't forget the positive variances that more than outweigh the production delays

[croesus]

Without being smug I am pleased I am not currently a holder... I well remember a conversation I had with a cpl of retired mine managers at the Blackball Workingmens Club a year or so back.. they advised caution, spoke of fractured rock, problems with the fault line...etc etc.. I posted about that,... on this thread or the NZO thread can not recall which.... from memory it did'nt result in universal acclaim from other posters....

My point is,.... this hold up may get a lot lot worse... this may drag the S/P way down..
Some may label me Cassandra instead of Croesus....fair enough....if you have margin traded PRC or its parent.... have a wee thought about your personal exposure...

cheers C.

[bermuda]

Without being smug I am pleased I am not currently a holder... I well remember a conversation I had with a cpl of retired mine managers at the Blackball Workingmens Club a year or so back.. they advised caution, spoke of fractured rock, problems with the fault line...etc etc.. I posted about that,... on this thread or the NZO thread can not recall which.... from memory it did'nt result in universal acclaim from other posters....

My point is,.... this hold up may get a lot lot worse... this may drag the S/P way down..
Some may label me Cassandra instead of Croesus....fair enough....if you have margin traded PRC or its parent.... have a wee thought about your personal exposure...

cheers C.

Beware of conversations. If it is a fact please post it.

[croesus]

Bermuda " if it is a fact please post it" thats a silly thing to write... I am surprised !..... I thought you had more nous.... This is a FORUM.....the conversation was not a fact then.. the mine was hardly even started... but .... seems like they ( The Retired Mine Managers) may well prove to be correct.

Cheers Croesus.

[duncan macgregor]

Beware of conversations. If it is a fact please post it. BERMUDA, I have had all sorts of conversations with tea ladies about what rumours are circling in the boardroom. Those conversations stood me in good stead, understanding what was actually going on behind the scenes. I would say that most PRC investors would not have a clue about the risks involved in the mining business.
Anyone coming out giving practical opinion, good or bad is a bonus. People should be encouraged to voice opinions that come from a practical source, not condemned simply because it offends the blue eyed brigade. Lots of risks involved including that bastard warf union that never gets a mention.
Macdunk

[dsurf]

croesus - i hold this one after buying as much as i could for a $1. now $1.70. best performer of any size on nzx. what more could i want. you sound like you missed the opportunity!

[dsurf]

macd - who cares about "risks for mining stocks" - you make the mistake about being emotional about a sector. I inly care if a stock has a positive return.

[croesus]

Stop being emotional Dsurf.... I put in a post that you don't like... so you accuse me of sour grapes.....thats the emotional transparency of a 9 year old...just be thankfull young fella I deigned to relate my chat with the mine managers... now its 10 am.. so trot off and have your play lunch.

Cheers Croesus

[ronthepom]

Stop being emotional Dsurf.... I put in a post that you don't like... so you accuse me of sour grapes.....thats the emotional transparency of a 9 year old...just be thankfull young fella I deigned to relate my chat with the mine managers... now its 10 am.. so trot off and have your play lunch.

Cheers Croesus

Hi,

someone liked them enough to buy 600,000 just after 9am this morning.

[Drone]

Hi,

someone liked them enough to buy 600,000 just after 9am this morning.

And someone didn't like them enough to sell 600,000.

[manxman]

Hi,

someone liked them enough to buy 600,000 just after 9am this morning.


And someone didn't like them enough to sell 600,000.

Or just a financial whizz kid shuffling off his best assets to the family trust?

[ronthepom]

Or just a financial whizz kid shuffling off his best assets to the family trust?

True, but i would have wanted more for them hehe.

[duncan macgregor]

the point to remember is when buying or selling is there is a winner and a loser with very few in betweens. None of us could ever hope to get it right all the time thats why strategies to get you out when you get it wrong are a must. I hate to see childish behaviour from people who make personal attacks on other people, for having a different opinion. We require as much information as we can get, from what ever source to come up with a buy or sell decision. I would have thought someone talking to mine managers about fault lines would be of great interest other than the braindead closed mind i am never wrong brigade in this instance. I would lay odds that the tea lady would know more about coal mining than half the investors. Macdunk

[ronthepom]

the point to remember is when buying or selling is there is a winner and a loser with very few in betweens. None of us could ever hope to get it right all the time thats why strategies to get you out when you get it wrong are a must. I hate to see childish behaviour from people who make personal attacks on other people, for having a different opinion. We require as much information as we can get, from what ever source to come up with a buy or sell decision. I would have thought someone talking to mine managers about fault lines would be of great interest other than the braindead closed mind i am never wrong brigade in this instance. I would lay odds that the tea lady would know more about coal mining than half the investors. Macdunk

Hi MD,
agree with your point , getting it right all the time but both could be winners the seller could have bought for a dollar and the buyer is up at the moment 2c a share as i said i would have wanted more.
Dis, hold

[Nitaa]

I hate to see childish behaviour from people who make personal attacks on other people, for having a different opinion. MacdunkMD.. That is like the tyre calling the condom rubber.

From my perspectuive there have been many hiccups with Pike during its history. However credit must be given to NZO and to the private investors who saw the potential well over 10 years ago. Even 3 years ago many thought it would never happen but we arwe only a wisker away of capitalizing on a highly sought after coal.

Congrats to all who have done so well out of it so far.

discl. do not hold

[Mysterybox]

As soon as we engage in a trade we start on a negative (due to brokerage fee's) so the field is already slanted for us to all lose, then (if with commodities/currencies) you have to pay slippage, a further vertical slant. In the meantime its just a bunch of traders running in a mass market place picking each others pockets for profits.

Any profit you make comes from other traders.

This game is set to make you lose, only by playing correctly can you overcome this(sometimes).

[glennj]

Hi guys. I've been back on the Coast nearly three months & have had a talk with some of the workers, staff and contractors plus an independent geologist as recently as today. Might sound a bit McDunkish but these guys are advocating caution. The worst geology on the access tunnel is yet to be hit so there are more cost blow outs to come?


This piece copped a bit of flack when I posted it last October but it has come to pass. Thankfully HCC prices are way higher than expected because opening up costs let alone mining costs are. Still lots of derisking to do and a lot at stake for current holders. Bought some post IPO & took some profits on 1st July at $2.48 Should have flicked the lot!
Am watching closely. If they continue to have delays and cost overuns the rest will be sold while there is still some profit there.

[tim23]

Hey Mr Clever how much did you pay for them $2.40?

[croesus]

Sour grapes Tim, Is that the best you can do ? GlennJ has put up a valid post....seems like you and Dsurf go to the same primary school.

cheers Croesus

[glennj]

Hey Mr Clever how much did you pay for them $2.40?

I wasn't bragging mate just illustrating a point. They were bought on 23.01.08 for 96 cents per share including brokerage.

My aim is to buy undervalued shares and sell overvalued shares. We all want to make money right? Well it helps if you can do some research of your own and take a questioning attitude to promotional spin.

Last October it was obvious some people had fallen in love with PRC and I was just pointing out there were clear risks ahead. If I was Mr Clever I would have sold the lot at 2.48

[foodee]

Glennj
Good on ya.
Took note of your posts and sold enough
albeit lower than 2.48 to free carry rest.

Keep the gems coming.

cheers

[tim23]

Sour grapes Tim, Is that the best you can do ? GlennJ has put up a valid post....seems like you and Dsurf go to the same primary school.

cheers Croesus

Not atall I bought at the float and more during rights issue am still holding and nicely ahead, I did sell a few @ $2.05 to help fund my NOG options

[Rabbi]

I found this while browsing around. It doesn't seem like the Global credit crunch- which is mainly coming out of the west- will stem demand for hard coking coal, especially from China. :)

Coking coal prices top $350/mt as steel demand, supply uncertainty hits market

Platts latest Q3-2008 coking coal price assessments showed spot values gaining across the board for all varieties, compared to the previous quarter on the back of several record benchmark term contract agreements and continued tightness in the global metallurgical coal market.
Spot coking coal prices have increased every quarter in the past year.
Premium low-volatile hard coking coals from Queensland (See chart: Australia Queensland Coking Coal (http://www.platts.com/Coal/Resources/News%20Features/cokingcoal08/queensland.xml)) and North America (See chart: Us Hamptons Road Coking Coal (http://www.platts.com/Coal/Resources/News%20Features/cokingcoal08/hamptons.xml)) were assessed at $350/mt and around $320/mt respectively for July to September, up from $320/mt and $285/mt in April to June.
Spot prices have moved up from the $300/mt April settlement between BHP Billiton Mitsubishi Alliance (BMA), the world's largest coking coal exporter, and Japanese steel mills for premium hard coking coals supplied under term contracts during the year started April 1.

[AMR]

Can someone chart this...I think it broke the downtrend today.

[Phaedrus]

PRC gave an OBV trendline break Buy signal on 21/8/08 giving an entry at $1.78. The latest price right now is $1.82 and that has triggered a Stochastic oscillator Buy signal.

At $1.82, price action is right at both the trendline and the 16 day moving average - a Close of $1.83 would break both, giving another 2 Buy signals.

It would take a Close of $1.84 or higher to end the current downtrend and break above the trailing short stop.

http://h1.ripway.com/Phaedrus/PRC827.gif

[Mysterybox]

Close at $1.85 on the high. This looks good :)

[bermuda]

Close at $1.85 on the high. This looks good :)

Mystery,
Based upon my research it is positively brilliant...but PRC

1. Have to reach the coal
2. Mine the coal

Everything else has been catered for especially the huge increase in coking coal prices..... and as predicted in the IPO, the currency is even falling into line.

It is going to be one of NZ's greatest ever mining stocks.

[OutToLunch]

So long as we keep in mind that it's a one mine operation, and an underground mine at that (= riskier than many). Not downramping as I hold PRC -- just trying to contain my optimism with a bit of a reality check. :)

[Mysterybox]

Mystery,
Based upon my research it is positively brilliant...but PRC

1. Have to reach the coal
2. Mine the coal

Everything else has been catered for especially the huge increase in coking coal prices..... and as predicted in the IPO, the currency is even falling into line.

It is going to be one of NZ's greatest ever mining stocks.

Yes absolutely, reading company announcements before anything else :)

[Sideshow Bob]

It is going to be one of NZ's greatest ever mining stocks.

Out of interest, what would be NZ's current greatest mining stock at present??

[moimoi]

Out of interest, what would be NZ's current greatest mining stock at present??

well it wouldn't be HGD despite want the strokers over on that thread would have you believe. :-)

[Mysterybox]

Pike River Coal Limited has reported a loss of $1.14 million reflecting the West Coast underground mine is still in its development stage.

Chief executive Gordon Ward said first premium coking coal production from the underground mine 46 kilometres north of Greymouth in the Paparoa Range was due by the end of September. That is two months behind the earlier target of July.

For the June 2009 year Pike Coal still expected to produce 200,000 tonnes.

Ward said the most exacting task was completing the 2.3 km tunnel to the Brunner coal seam. It was nearing completion but the final section was revealing ``variable rock conditions''.

The $1.14m loss in the year to June 2008 compares with the $881,000 in the previous year.

The year's result had a number of one-off items; including recruitment of management and a skilled mine workforce, and transition to new coal transport arrangements.

The loss for the year was less than market expectations, but not that relevant because the first coal production would take place this financial year.

Recruitment has gone well with more than 80 staff now employed.

Ward said the outlook for the year to June 2009 was positive with forward orders in place and prices for premium hard coking coal tripling to US$300 a tonne compared to a year ago.

He said hard coking coal demand was forecast to remain high over the next few years.

Pike River became an NZX Top 50 in July and its market capitalisation was approximately $500 million.

The company had a strong balance sheet and the focus remained on delivering the second largest hard coking coal mine in New Zealand.

source: http://www.stuff.co.nz/4673520a13.html

[Rabbi]

When I look for the risk to this stock, the only thing holding them back is the fact that they are about a month behind schedule. If I was a betting man-and I am otherwise I wouldn't be in this stock- I'd bet that they don't reach the coal seam until October 18th; and on that note I'd like to suggest a competition to pick the day PRC reaches the coal seam.
Anyone interested in putting in their picks.

Once they get there the market is gonna love this stock as all the other Ducks line up so beautifully..great management team, coal contracted, preparation plant nearly complete, slurrry line, pit bottom, road headers, continuous miners etc. etc.:):):)

Congratulations Peter Whittall, Gordon Ward, and all the rest of the team.

[Wilkins_Micawber]

... I'd bet that they don't reach the coal seam until October 18th; and on that note I'd like to suggest a competition to pick the day PRC reaches the coal seam.
Anyone interested in putting in their picks.


I'd pick 24th Sept. Latest update on web page (25th Aug) says "with improving rock conditions seeing 12.5 metres (an average of 4 metres) in the last 3 days. That leaves 136 metres ...."

136m / (12.5m / 3days) = 32.64 days to go (approx 27th Sept) if the rate remains the same as those 3 days. However, the statement is that rock conditions are improving and you would presumably expect conditions to continue to improve as they get further from the fault.

Next weeks update will be interesting to see if the daily rate of 4.166 (12.5/3) has improved further and if so by how much.

But at the end of the day what difference does a week or two either way really make - I'd say zero, zip, nullah, especially for long term shareholders and especially as PRC are still confident enough to continue stating that they still expect to meet the forecast 200,000 tonnes for this year.... (it's only really the waiting in anticipation that hurts)

[RossT]

The latest info on the website is actually tunnel chainage at 28th August is 2174, leaving 126m to go. ( page 5 of the Operations update presentation ).

If it helps anyones calculations.....

[Bixbite]

.

I didn’t find anyone mention this news - it is not about hard coke coal but relative.


BlueScope Steel Announces the Divestment of the Taharoa Iron Sands Business For NZ$250 Million
26 August 08

BlueScope Steel Limited (ASX: BSL) today announced the NZ$250 million sale of its New Zealand iron sands mining and export operation, the Taharoa Iron Sands business, to Cheung Kong Infrastructure Holdings Limited. …………....................

http://www.bluescopesteel.com/index.cfm?objectid=F8A69EE4-CB4A-8B1E-9AE201585D7F2427


It reminds me about the takeover offer for LPC (Lyttelton Port) by Hutchison in 2006.

Cheung Kong and Hutchison are the same group of relevant companies in Hong Kong.

.

[zac]

There is mention of another hard coking coal mine in NZ in the PRC press release. Where is the mine and is it operated by Solid Energy?

[RossT]

There is mention of another hard coking coal mine in NZ in the PRC press release. Where is the mine and is it operated by Solid Energy?

Stockton mine, Westport. Yes.

[The BOWMAN]

Latest progress report:

10 meters progress in last week with four days "lost"! What do they mean by "lost"? Nobody could work because the fan is not running? Who else think the end of September is still not possible?

[Robomo]

Latest progress report:

10 meters progress in last week with four days "lost"! What do they mean by "lost"? Nobody could work because the fan is not running? Who else think the end of September is still not possible?

I am bemused that the fan blades suddenly needed replacing necessitating 4 days close down. Sounds like a lack of forethought or failure to detect that something was wearing out (are Pike hiring ex-Qantas engineers?). Shareholders deserve a better explanation as to what went wrong.

I would have thought that such essential items as ventilation fan spares would be held on-site so as to minimise downtime in the event of failure or breakage. If the mine was running at full production the loss of 4 days would be reflected in millions of dollars of lost production.

Coal by the end of September seems highly unlikely now.

[Robomo]

.
I didn’t find anyone mention this news - it is not about hard coke coal but relative.
.

More news, not quite hard coking coal but certainly related.

Xstrata are negotiating for thermal coal contract with Japan at $175 a tonne - 140% of the 2009 contract price set in April 2008.

http://www.mineweb.net/mineweb/view/mineweb/en/page38?oid=61174&sn=Detail

[bermuda]

More news, not quite hard coking coal but certainly related.

Xstrata are negotiating for thermal coal contract with Japan at $175 a tonne - 140% of the 2009 contract price set in April 2008.

http://www.mineweb.net/mineweb/view/mineweb/en/page38?oid=61174&sn=Detail

I think a few of the experts are now starting to realise that PRC is going to deliver into a longterm market at above $US350 per tonne. The strong and continuing upward shareprice movement over the last few weeks is testament to this.

Steel demand and pricing continues to get stronger.

[peterfindlay]

ABN Amro research on Pike River was updated on 29 August 2008 and shows a target price of $3.87 (c.f. SP of $1.89 on 29 Aug 08).

The updated valuation includes significant revisions to forecast HCC prices (upwards), NZ$/US$ exchange rates (downwards), mining costs (upwards), operational capex (upwards).

HCC prices are forecast in US$/t as follows:

2009F 300, 2010F 318, 2011F 305, 2012F 225, 2013F 150, 2014F 108, 2015F 88.

The AMN Amro research lists the catalysts that could rerate Pike and are shown as:

1. Commencement of production,
2. An increase in reserves and expected extraction from the Brunner seam, and the development of the Paparoa seam,
3. Continuation of the current high HCC spot prices and contract prices in early 2009,
4. A selldown or divestment of NZO's 30.5% stake in PRC,
5. Sector M & A activity with PRC as a target.

A rerating of Pike will eventually occur, and it will no doubt flow through to the SP of its main shareholder (NZOG) as well. It does appear that in Pike River's case, the rerating is just starting to occur, having recently dropped to the low 170's and now having just broken the $2 mark again.

[Rabbi]

It seems to me that the more negative I am about this stock the better it goes. But I am stuck to find anything negative to say at the moment.
Maybe the whole tunnel will fall in or there will be a massive earthquake and the ground will get gobbled up.

Scared?

Sell your shares to me then.:cool::D:D

[Toddy]

It seems to me that the more negative I am about this stock the better it goes. But I am stuck to find anything negative to say at the moment.
Maybe the whole tunnel will fall in or there will be a massive earthquake and the ground will get gobbled up.

Scared?

Sell your shares to me then.:cool::D:D

What about this one Rabbi.

Sept. 2 (Bloomberg) -- Steelmakers including Nucor Corp., the largest U.S.-based producer, fell in New York after ArcelorMittal said it will cut South African steel prices, raising concerns of further decreases in North America.

[Corporate]

Nice article on pike this morning


Coal price stokes Pike outlook
By JAMES WEIR - The Dominion Post | Thursday, 04 September 2008

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AdvertisementPike River Coal is expecting good prices of more than US$300 a tonne for its export coal, with India desperate for coal and China becoming a net importer for the first time this year.


Some brokers are forecasting a near doubling in Pike's share price in the coming year on the back of high world coal prices, even though the mine is still a month away from actually hitting its West Coast coalseam.

Pike River is in the "last dash" 120 metres of a 2.3km tunnel to its coalseam, with production expected to ramp up to one million tonnes a year from June.

The tunnel should be complete at the end of this month, Pike River chief executive Gordon Ward said.

Pike River's coalmine is about 100m below the surface in the remote Paparoa Range, about 50km northeast of Greymouth.

"It is tiger country," Mr Ward said.

The international price of coal is about three times the conservative level forecast in Pike's prospectus last year, which predicted prices would drift off to the mid US$70 range over time. Instead, world coal prices have boomed, with broker reports suggesting prices above US$300 (NZ$444) a tonne next year, up from US$150 in the past year.

On that basis, broker ABN Amro has just given Pike a 12-month target of $3.87 a share, Mr Ward told the Australasian Institute of Mining and Metallurgy mining conference in Wellington this week. "Potentially a healthy increase," he said.

Pike River shares have risen from $1 at the share float last year to $1.95 this week, the best performance of the NZX top 50.

World coal prices rocketed after Australian production in Queensland was affected by flooding and power stations in South Africa could not get enough coal.

But the long-run key is rapidly growing demand from China and India.

India, where most of Pike River's coal is destined, is hungry for coal and is expected to need an extra 15 million tonnes a year during the next five years.

China used to export coal, but for the first time this year is a net importer of both thermal and hard coking coal.

China has also just increased the "export tax" on thermal coal from 5 per cent to 10 per cent, matching the 10 per cent tax on coking coal, adding tension to supply and demand, Mr Ward said.

Pike expected "good [coal] prices for a number of years".

Contract prices are adjusted during annual price negotiations, taking the lead from BHP price agreements.

ABN Amro and Citigroup are now forecasting coal prices next year of more than US$300 a tonne, with spot prices as much as US$370 a tonne.

"The consensus from about six brokers is much higher prices forecast for much longer. Citigroup [alone] sees coal at US$250 a tonne in five years' time," Mr Ward said.

Bullish brokers said the fall in the Kiwi dollar from US80c to US70c was also a positive in New Zealand dollar income.

About a third of the Pike River mine's operating costs are for power, but Pike has locked in fixed price hedge contracts for about 18 months. Wholesale or spot market power prices skyrocketed this winter and Mr Ward admitted the company would be exposed to rising prices in future.

There was some potential for Pike to produce its own power from coalseam gas at the mine, which could reduce the overall power bill.

Export coal is exempt from the Government's emissions trading scheme

[Observer]

That's clever. In the latest announcement PRC are washing water to save water
and be environmentally friendly. There must be magic in there somewhere.
Well done!!
Cheers
Observer

[Billy Boy]

That's clever. In the latest announcement PRC are washing water to save water
and be environmentally friendly. There must be magic in there somewhere.
Well done!!
Cheers
Observer

Just like when you are out camping.....
Use gravel to wash pots & pans etc.....:D
BB:D

[upside_umop]

Back on the pike train.
Looks like we might see respect of the support at around 1.85.
Below 1.85/6 would see the recent uptrend break? But how about that OBV?
Phaedrus if you could post one at the end of the day, would be great.

[Mysterybox]

Back on the pike train.
Looks like we might see respect of the support at around 1.85.
Below 1.85/6 would see the recent uptrend break? But how about that OBV?
Phaedrus if you could post one at the end of the day, would be great.

Hey, what program are you using for your charts? I can't seem to find one that supports NZX. Thanks.

[Phaedrus]

Would below 1.85/6 see the recent uptrend break?
It would see a break of the trendline, but the uptrend itself would still be intact.


How about that OBV? Todays fall broke below the OBV moving average, giving a sell signal.

Other indicators being used to monitor PRC have not been triggered yet. These are :-
The current trendline
The 16 day Moving Average
The Stochastic oscillator

Quite apart from these technical indicators, those that bought into PRC on the recent buy signals might like to ask themselves this question. What would it take to make that buy decision wrong? To my mind, the answer is :- A Close below the recent support level of $1.72. That is what it would take to reverse the current uptrend and resume the preceding downtrend.

http://h1.ripway.com/Phaedrus/PRC95.gif

[tim23]

Could they have bought because they believe its a good story?

[Mysterybox]

There was an earthquake in the south island today, magnitude 5. Affected areas include the west coast, anyone know anything more about this?

[tim23]

No - do you think it might speed up tunnel progress?

[Mysterybox]

No - do you think it might speed up tunnel progress?

No ? I know very little about geology/geophysics but I'd assume it's a bloody bad thing for a mine.

[Huang Chung]

Haven't had a really close look at PRC yet, but I'm just curious what people think about this very long tunnel that crosses a fault in an area that experiences earthquakes??

Is the real prospect of an earthquake severely damaging the tunnel (particularly around the fault)?

Is there any escape routes for the miners in the event of a disaster?

Being from Oz, we don't really have much experience with earthquakes (forgetting Newcastle for a moment), and this mine does seem rather out of the ordinary with this long tunnel.

All views appreciated.

[shasta]

Haven't had a really close look at PRC yet, but I'm just curious what people think about this very long tunnel that crosses a fault in an area that experiences earthquakes??

Is the real prospect of an earthquake severely damaging the tunnel (particularly around the fault)?

Is there any escape routes for the miners in the event of a disaster?

Being from Oz, we don't really have much experience with earthquakes (forgetting Newcastle for a moment), and this mine does seem rather out of the ordinary with this long tunnel.

All views appreciated.

HC

The West Coast of the South Island experiences bugger all seismic activity!

http://www.geonet.org.nz/

[Huang Chung]

Interesting Shasta...so the fun and games is pretty much restricted to the North Island I presume?

Must be an amazing feeling!

[bermuda]

Interesting Shasta...so the fun and games is pretty much restricted to the North Island I presume?

Must be an amazing feeling!

This is an International mining project.

[shasta]

Interesting Shasta...so the fun and games is pretty much restricted to the North Island I presume?

Must be an amazing feeling!

Put it this way, if you draw a line from the Bay of Plenty (White Island) thru the middle of the North Island down to Wellington, we are right on the main faultline, as is the main motorway!

Even smarter is our airport, also on the faultline & on reclaimed land next to the Cook Strait...:confused:

If we had a big earthquake in NZ it would likely be in the Bay of Plenty, Hawkes Bay, or the greater Wellington area (basically the east coast of the North Island).

Pike River is on the other side of the Southern Alps & whilst the South Island gets a few quakes, it's probably in the best spot !

[macduffy]

HC

The West Coast of the South Island experiences bugger all seismic activity!

http://www.geonet.org.nz/

I doubt that the good folk of Inangahua would agree!

:rolleyes:

[Rabbi]

Yes, and the Inangahua earthquake of 1968 was a rip-snorter. It kept bricklayers at Greymouth in work for years. Another one may not come in my lifetime but then again....

....it might come next week:D:D:D

[manxman]

Is the real prospect of an earthquake severely damaging the tunnel (particularly around the fault)?

Is there any escape routes for the miners in the event of a disaster?



I believe that the main ventilation shaft will be west of the Hawera fault and will be equipped as an emergency exit. Movement on the Hawera fault itself is not likely, so the tunnel, and more important, the miners, would probably be safe. I can't recall any major mine incidents associated with earthquakes on the West Coast. Can other posters?

BUT a major quake on the main alpine fault system has been exercising the minds of civil and structural engineers for a while now. There is a lot of strain energy locked up there and a big release is overdue according to those who know.

Any investment in New Zealand should be stress tested against the risk of natural disaster. As a German tourist once told me: "God hasn't finished making this country yet."

[upside_umop]

Wouldn't PRC have insurance in an event of an earthquake? Or can you not insure for business activity against earthquakes in NZ?

Thanks Phaedrus, do you find a moving average on the OBV more informative?

Hey MysteryBox, I use IncredibleCharts. The data is a bit old but it gives you an idea of whats happening. For NZX stocks, use y_code.nz ie y_prc.nz

[Huang Chung]

Interesting stuff. I guess the idea of a significant fault running across the tunnel makes me a bit cautious. Something going wrong here could literally be a 'show stopper', but, as Shasta says, the West Coast of the South Island experiences bugger all seismic activity so maybe its not a big risk.

[RossT]

I had family mining coal on the coast for decades, heard heaps of stories, none earthquake related. Pike is a small tunnel, with one fault thru it. Theres always a risk of earthquakes, and theres always a risk we'll get nuked by North Korea too, or you'll be killed in a car accident. It just depends what you want to spend your time worrying about.

Take the Manapouri power station - a huge underground hole with two 10km tunnels and a spiralling access tunnel. The tailrace tunnels have at least 5 or 6 fault lines ( from memory ) thru them and fiordland gets quite a bit more siesmic activity than the coast. I spent about 2 years on the second tailrace tunnel and had about 2 good quakes in that period, one while underground. I'd far rather be underground in a big one than stuck up a high rise building in wellington.

Theres also about 17k's of tunnels where I live ( where alot of Pike tunnellers started out ) in far less competent ground than the Paparoas, and they're perfectly fine and have survived a good few tremors as well.

And yes the ventilation shaft is the evac route. They'll either have a ladder bolted to the side and/or use a cage and winch, so in getting out of the tunnel in an emergency they won't have to use the access tunnel or cross "the fault".

[RossT]

Irrelevant trivia.....

Currently under construction in Switzerland, the Alptransit Gotthard underground rail system will have a total tunnel lenght over 150kms !

The main section, the Gotthard base tunnel, will be the worlds longest tunnel = 57km ! due for tunnel completion in 2010 and fit out for rail operation by 2016.

[Zaphod]

HC

The West Coast of the South Island experiences bugger all seismic activity!

http://www.geonet.org.nz/

They are all interlinked to a certain extent. A major event in South is likely to trigger events in the North and visa versa.

Quite frankly when a major event does occur, the last thing I'm going to be worry about is the affect on PRC! ;)

[Mysterybox]

Hey MysteryBox, I use IncredibleCharts. The data is a bit old but it gives you an idea of whats happening. For NZX stocks, use y_code.nz ie y_prc.nz

Thanks a ton!

[boris]

A good source for earthquake reference material is geonet.
Here is a link to a seismicity map (http://www.geonet.org.nz/earthquake/quakes/2964546g-maps.html)
Inangahua was not the only biggie.
Murchison in 1929 was severe and there are still visible reminders.
Probably the best known are the Maruia falls (http://www.harlequin.co.nz/nelson_gallery/MaruiaFalls.htm).

[Phaedrus]

Phaedrus, do you find a moving average on the OBV more informative?
I generally apply a trendline to the OBV plot, but sometimes a moving average gives more timely signals. If in doubt, run both and take the earlier signal.

[Rabbi]

I,m off to the Coast on the weekend of the 27th.

All they need to do is 40m of tunnel for the next three weeks and I could be there by celebration day.

Hard Rock, Soft Rock, it won't matter....

Greymouth will just simply be rocking! :D:D:D

[RossT]

Will be interesting to see if they had a full weeks tunnelling in todays tunnel progress update. Re-reading last weeks progress update I see they lost 4 days ( so far ) with the portal fan blade problem, the blades arriving the day the update went to press. Didn't actually say they were back up and running, so fingers crossed.

[Mr Tommy]

Last week 20.5m progress, 105.5 to go.
Is end of Sept likely at this rate?

[RossT]

Last week 20.5m progress, 105.5 to go.
Is end of Sept likely at this rate?

Taking last weeks average it works out to 36 days to go, which puts it at 13 October.

Due to the last delay wasn't the deadline with Liberty Harbour ( for first coal ) renegotiated to about the middle of October? I wonder what the penalty arrangement, if any, is for Prc if they don't meet this?

[the machine]

Taking last weeks average it works out to 36 days to go, which puts it at 13 October.

Due to the last delay wasn't the deadline with Liberty Harbour ( for first coal ) renegotiated to about the middle of October? I wonder what the penalty arrangement, if any, is for Prc if they don't meet this?


as ground conditions have improved, combined with road header having been used a bit, then over next week would expect significant progress - 50+ meters would be nice

M

[manxman]

Last week 20.5m progress, 105.5 to go.
Is end of Sept likely at this rate?

Just a thought:-
The tunnel completion is shown at 2300 metres where the tunnel floor intersects the coal, but "first coal" will happen when the tunnel roof intersects the coal seam descending from above, and will be 20-30 metres earlier than "tunnel completion" so we may have first coal by the end of September.

[RossT]

as ground conditions have improved, combined with road header having been used a bit, then over next week would expect significant progress - 50+ meters would be nice

M

50+ meters would be nice alright ! Sp down in the $1.70's ( again ). It's like a bloody rollercoaster.

I keep hearing Phaedrus' words echoing in my head "never average down, never average down".

Today is the third time with Prc that the very next day after I either buy or sell the market does a huge lurch against me. Aaaargghhh !!

[Bilo]

50+ meters would be nice alright ! Sp down in the $1.70's ( again ). It's like a bloody rollercoaster.

I keep hearing Phaedrus' words echoing in my head "never average down, never average down".

Today is the third time with Prc that the very next day after I either buy or sell the market does a huge lurch against me. Aaaargghhh !!

It is brutal nasty stuff Ross but with the NZD possibly going below US60c tomorrow it could go the other way. 500k crossed at 1.75 otherwise on inconsequential volume. I think the buyer of that transaction will be very happy with himself by the end of the month...

[Phaedrus]

Today is the third time with PRC that the very next day after I either buy or sell the market does a huge lurch against me. Aaaargghhh !!
Don't sweat the small stuff, Ross. Don't worry unless PRC drops below its previous support at $1.72. Don't get excited unless PRC breaks above its previous resistance at $1.97.
http://h1.ripway.com/Phaedrus/PRC910.gif

[Hoop]

50+ meters would be nice alright ! Sp down in the $1.70's ( again ). It's like a bloody rollercoaster.

I keep hearing Phaedrus' words echoing in my head "never average down, never average down".

Today is the third time with Prc that the very next day after I either buy or sell the market does a huge lurch against me. Aaaargghhh !!

Got back to the computer and noticed Phaedrus post in my other window.
Since I've spent time earlier writing this I might as well finish it, modify it and post it


With reference to buying in

If you are lucky enough to be in this situation with your portfolio, there is nothing wrong with averaging down in a up trending stock.. this is called a buying opportunity.

Within the Zurich Axiom of Stubbornness the minor Axiom says you should avoid averaging down in bad investments (I assume primary down trending stocks are included as a bad investment as a matter of logic and fact).

Pike although it broke its short term uptrend line it is not in a downtrend at present..it is in weakness mode with short term sell signals already fired thus the short-term investors have (should have) exited around $1.87, but until the support line at 1.72 is broken Pike is technically not in a downtrend. If you bought today at 1.75 you may benefit as it may be a window of opportunity. However if..(hypothetically speaking), you bought in at 1.69 at, say, tomorrows close.. then (TA speaking) that is now classified as a bad investment buying decision as you are breaking that Axiom rule of avoiding averaging down on a down trending stock..At the moment there is only 4 cents difference...not much!!..between being a good opportunity investment and that of a mistake.. so the buy now at $1.75 the risk part of the risk/reward factor is rather high. It may seem illogical and paradoxical but the risk part is a lot less once resistance at $1.97 is broken and an uptrend is re-established.

As always tomorrow is another day and todays snapshot of PRC will be tomorrows historic data, and reassessment is required.

Therefore when your up against the odds and stubbornly want to invest in PRC if it falls below $1.72 you have to quote the Dirty Harry quote** to yourself before you hit the buy confirm button.

**
'Do I feel lucky?'

[Placebo]

Hoop that is the question I ask myself before every transaction.

[Hoop]

'...Hoop that is the question I ask myself before every transaction.'
LOL :D:D

[Placebo]

Clarification: Actually, it's the ONLY question :D

[Mr Tommy]

Last week only another 20.5m, now 84m to go.

[the machine]

Last week only another 20.5m, now 84m to go.

as another poster highlighted, as the tunnel will be coming from under the coal seam, then first coal may be quite a few meters shorter than the full "coalface"

M

[scamper]

on 10 sept, Sir P. said:
Don't sweat the small stuff, Ross. Don't worry unless PRC drops below its previous support at $1.72. Don't get excited unless PRC breaks above its previous resistance at $1.97.

oh dear! looks like it is time to start worrying, OR, the current $1.70 is nothing to do with prc, but part of the general malaise... scamper doesn't hold, but is not happy.

[Billy Boy]

as another poster highlighted, as the tunnel will be coming from under the coal seam, then first coal may be quite a few meters shorter than the full "coalface"

M
WHAT THE HELL HAS THAT GOTTA DO WITH ANYTHING
BB:)

[Billy Boy]

oh dear! looks like it is time to start worrying, OR, the current $1.70 is nothing to do with prc, but part of the general malaise... scamper doesn't hold, but is not happy.
ah ha.
But...What does the mistress of scamper think ??
BB knows the value, so does Scamper, I would suggest !!:).
We seek him there etc....:) Scamper is wise, not happy?? then why
scamper's big smile?? Buy, buy, & buy. where is the bottom ??
how cares, be patient. Note the fundeeeementials....:)
Up stairs for thinking, down stairs for dancing. etc...
go get em Scamper, a-fore it be 2 late.
Cheers & Beers
Yours etc...
BB:D

[bob.not.a.builder]

$1.63 yesterday. Seems like a good buying opportunity but I would wait a 2-3 days and see any negative movement. Hopefully I can buy back at the same price I did in May. I am just wondering how long it will take to recover.

[Juggernaut]

10c drop so far today, what is going on???!, I know coal prices have dropped this week, but hardly justifies such a big drop in price for PRC the last few days

[AMR]

Broad market collapse. Dow down 10% odd in the last three days.

[croesus]

Any update on progress in the mineshaft ?

[Robomo]

Broad market collapse. Dow down 10% odd in the last three days.

Modest volume of 750,000 PRC shares traded today losing 18c since yesterday and now just $1.44.

Conversely there is a report from Gujarat in India about current spot price for Hard Coking Coal up to $400 per tonne.


"Hard coking coal prices are also rising very rapidly as is evident in annual contract prices rising from USD 96 per MT in 2007 to USD 300 per MT in 2008, and as against annual contracted rates of USD 300 per MT the current spot rates range between USD 380 - 400 per MT; and even at this price the availability is scarce."


http://www.equitybulls.com/admin/news2006/news_det.asp?id=39642
Seems to me that institutional holders are having to dump shares for whatever they can get for them. At $300+ per tonne of hard coking coal PRC at $1.44 is a bargain. If HCC price holds up or is even more for the April 2009 contract round then the likely dividend payout when PRC hits full production next year makes $1.44 per share one of the best share prices around.

Having said that its likely that PRC SP will sink even lower as overseas investors seek to recover cash anyway they can regardless of how good the company fundamentals are.

[Sideshow Bob]

Got an itchy trigger finger yet Bermuda? Or are you just waiting for a TA entry point?? :)

[Grand Uber]

I'd say he's off licking his wounds like the rest of us silly enough to have tryed to ride through the storm.

[bermuda]

I'd say he's off licking his wounds like the rest of us silly enough to have tryed to ride through the storm.

Hi Grand Uber,

Just waiting for VPE's Warhawk to get to 1700 metres. As I said on some thread

1. In October '87 I didnt see it coming. I was too green.

2. This time , in 2008, I have seen ( for about 18 months ) the worst crash of all time and tried to protect myself behind oil and CSG. Saw it coming but didnt maximise my position.

3. Next time, I will have the knowledge of MacDunk and stay on the sidelines.

Come home to Mama Warhawk.