PRC Pike River Coal [Archive] - Page 13

Dr_Who

11-12-2008, 02:12 PM

Further delays? Can someone please translate to English?

PRC
11/12/2008
MINE

REL: 1131 HRS Pike River Coal Limited

MINE: PRC: PRC - In-seam Drilling to Plot Coal Mining

IN-SEAM DRILLING TO PLOT COAL MINING

Pike River Coal Limited has started its scheduled in-seam drilling through
the Brunner coal seam under the Paparoa Ranges to plot the best road map for
its heavy mining machinery to cut coal.

Pike River has contracted an experienced Australian in-seam drilling company
to drill five in-seam boreholes, totalling approximately 7 kilometres in the
Brunner coal seam.

These holes will have regular directional deflections or 'branches' into the
seam roof and floor, to better outline the geometry of the coal-seam and
assist with controlled drainage of in-seam coal-bed gas ahead of mining.

In-seam drilling involves placing a drilling machine underground and drilling
horizontally within the coal seam rather than vertically from the surface.
This is far more effective in collecting accurate in-seam data than drilling
from the surface and with no impacts on the surface.

The drill-rig is comprised of a track-mounted unit along with a power pack
and can safely be deployed wherever required. The motor, located within the
drill hole just behind the drill bit, allows the driller to steer the hole in
a pre-determined direction. It can drill forward up to 2000 metres.

The drill-rig has been established at the end of the 2.3 km access tunnel and
the first hole is now being drilled parallel to the northwards tunnel
extension to the ventilation shaft location. Later holes drilled from this
same location will radiate out in a fan pattern and delineate the pit bottom
area and further.

Wiremu

11-12-2008, 03:38 PM

Dr Who,

Do you need someone to translate because you can't find any bad news?

digger

11-12-2008, 04:10 PM

Dr Who,

Do you need someone to translate because you can't find any bad news?

yes no bad news here.Just that the sh-it hit the fan in the finanical world,but PIKE in itself going along nicely.
digger

Billy Boy

11-12-2008, 04:31 PM

yes no bad news here.Just that the sh-it hit the fan in the finanical world,but PIKE in itself going along nicely.
digger
Quite right Digger :)
Billy Boy is looking to use the divvy's from his LPT's to buy more PRC. :):)
Dont ya just hate this making money all the time !!! :D:D:D
BB

Scuffer

12-12-2008, 02:46 PM

Any shipment before march will not be a bonus it will be an if only, this horse bolted with the bang of the financial crisis.

Dr_Who

12-12-2008, 03:45 PM

If it breaks 90/91 cents it will test 80 cents.

Dr_Who

16-12-2008, 10:59 AM

NZD jumped 10% to over 55 cents against USD. :eek:

Double whammy with low coal price and higher NZD.

AMR

16-12-2008, 11:16 AM

No, it is in fact a good thing.

IMO The USD has been weakening against the Euro and the Yen, but the NZD/USD has been unable to break above 55c. This is a good thing because it shows the kiwi is weakening with the USD, and a weaker USD means higher commodity prices.

If you are so bearish, why are you still in?

winner69

16-12-2008, 12:20 PM

Rumour has it that there is still staffing issues, pertaining to good quality experienced staff at the coal face, this is part and parcel of why the coal is not exiting at the rate first estimated.

Plenty of spare coal miners in Australia .... MCC laying off 180 so they say

Dr_Who

16-12-2008, 12:21 PM

MACARTHUR COAL ANNOUNCES
PRODUCTION CUTS, HALF-YEAR PROFIT
DOWNGRADE AND SUSPENSION OF
INTERIM DIVIDEND

Macarthur Coal (ASX:MCC), along with many other commodity producers, has experienced a sudden and unprecedented reduction in coal sales as a result of postponement of coal shipments by some customers. The Board of Macarthur Coal is of the view that the current disruption to coal sales is significant and there is considerable uncertainty as to future movements in demand and when recovery will take place.

As a result, the Board announces a revision to the profit guidance for the first half of the 2009 financial year. Based on current forecasts, profit for the six months to December 2008 is now likely to be in the range of $75 million to $125 million. This revised guidance replaces the guidance given to the market on 16 October 2008 and reaffirmed on 13 November 2008 ($150 million to $160 million) and is due to the subsequent postponement of coal shipments advised by our customers.

The company is unable to provide a narrower first half profit guidance range because profit is sensitive to the assessment of currency hedge effectiveness and its resultant accounting treatment. This sensitivity is impacted by the timing of postponed coal sales and movements in the foreign exchange rate. The revised forecast therefore includes an amount of up to $48 million (NPAT) for potential negative accounting adjustments for currency hedge impacts that may be brought to account in the December 2008 half that relate to post December hedging.

The prior guidance was subject to achieving the budgeted shipping schedule which has now been impacted by the recent postponement of December shipments by some customers and shipping delays at both DBCT and Abbot Point.

Scuffer

16-12-2008, 02:29 PM

Plenty of spare coal miners in Australia .... MCC laying off 180 so they say

Yup I saw them all getting off the planes at the airport yesterday.;)

Scuffer

16-12-2008, 03:29 PM

The bulkies are sitting around now, 6 months ago you couldn't charter one at short notice they were booked solid, now PRC could get one easy if they had coal to put on it.:eek:

macduffy

16-12-2008, 04:53 PM

The bulkies are sitting around now, 6 months ago you couldn't charter one at short notice they were booked solid, now PRC could get one easy if they had coal to put on it.:eek:

One small piece of good news may be that the Baltic Dry Index has stopped dropping. Mind you, it didn't have far to go to drop right off the chart!

http://www.dryships.com/index.cfm?get=report

Dr_Who

16-12-2008, 09:56 PM

Will PRC suspend operations in the future?

Article from: Dow Jones Newswires (http://www.dowjones.com/)

XSTRATA will suspend longwall mining at the Oaky No 1 underground coking coal mine in Queensland because of a slump in demand.
The Anglo-Swiss miner will lay off 190 contractors and 40 permanent positions at the mine, which is part of the Oaky Creek Coal complex.

The suspension of the longwall operations comes in response to "reduced market demand and sales for hard coking coal, resulting from the continuing global economic crisis and downturn in the steel and manufacturing industries," Xstrata said in a statement.

"We are taking decisive action in the face of weaker demand for coking coal," said Ian Cribb, chief operating officer of Xstrata's Coal Queensland division.

Sideshow Bob

17-12-2008, 06:54 PM

With the dollar at 0.582 it will help even less!

Dr_Who

18-12-2008, 07:22 AM

Dollar hit 0.595 this morning and oil is down below $41. :eek:

777

18-12-2008, 07:31 AM

sideline

18-12-2008, 09:29 AM

Dollar hit 0.595 this morning and oil is down below $41. :eek:

Interestingly enough Brent Crude stayed above $45.

Billy Boy

18-12-2008, 10:36 AM

Someone on morning report today suggested it would touch .60 soon but by mid 2009 be as low as .45. The value a lot to do with the euro strengthening which would reverse at some stage.
Right or wrong who knows.

I read a Bankers forcast to that effect. ( $0.45 by June 2009 )
Also the English pound and the Euro could be on a par, by mid next year.
BB

Dr_Who

19-12-2008, 06:19 AM

bermuda

19-12-2008, 10:34 AM

Xstrata latest contract locks in coal price plunge

THE nation's thermal coal exporters could face a 50 per cent drop in contract prices next year.

This would represent a $9 billion hit to exports, after Swiss mining giant Xstrata rushed to accept a big contract price drop.

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/business/story/0,28124,24820923-643,00.html

Am gradually learning from Phaedrus and a few other indicators. Sold out of the few I had last week at 96 cents. Pike will deliver at over IPO levels so good luck to them for a job well done.

I will await for oil to stabilise and move upward.

Dr_Who

19-12-2008, 11:05 AM

Am gradually learning from Phaedrus and a few other indicators. Sold out of the few I had last week at 96 cents. Pike will deliver at over IPO levels so good luck to them for a job well done.

I will await for oil to stabilise and move upward.

My biggest concern for PRC is that they have missed out on the boom.

The fixed contract will expire with little chance of delivering any coal. All the major coking coal players are shutting down shop and firing staff to reduce cost. The reason they are shutting shop is due to the lack of buyers. major car companies and steel mills are also shutting shop and having extended holidays.

PRC with continue to have over runs in cost and yet to produce any revenue does not look good on fundamentals. I am also concern the extra $10m they have secured will not last long. Sorry for being so gloomy, but thats how I see it.

croesus

19-12-2008, 11:34 AM

Concur.... my opinion is that the PRC S/P is akin to the RoadRunner or was it the Coyote..? whatever.. in those cartoons we watched in the 60s.. (showing my age)... he would run off the end of the cliff.. and keep running for a second.. before whoosh gravity happened.

Sideshow Bob

19-12-2008, 09:46 PM

Am gradually learning from Phaedrus and a few other indicators.

It's official, Bermuda has moved to the Dark Side!! :P

bermuda

19-12-2008, 10:20 PM

It's official, Bermuda has moved to the Dark Side!! :P

Hi Bob,
If you want to see where the LIGHTSIDE is read my posts on VPE and BOW on the ASX channel.

Good luck to PRC holders. It will perform above IPO expectations but watch out for the Tall Poppy Loppers prevalent in the NZ markets.ps Am getting some cash ready to buy some oil futures at $30/bbl.

Last night in Oxford UK, it took me 19 minutes to travel 1 mile. So they are still burning the diesel ( at least most of the vehicles have converted over from petrol ...unlike the USA ).

Beautiful day here today. It is just that it gets dark at 3.30pm.

Dr_Who

20-12-2008, 06:48 AM

Hi Bob,
If you want to see where the LIGHTSIDE is read my posts on VPE and BOW on the ASX channel.

Am getting some cash ready to buy some oil futures at $30/bbl.

.

I am with you on that one.

Already keeping a close eye on oil futures.

Dr_Who

24-12-2008, 08:46 AM

Russian coking coal firm not being paid for shipments

Reuters reported that news Russia's second largest coking coal firm has not been paid for 79% of shipments since September as steel makers slash output shows the risks again facing an industry that once had to barter to survive.

Coal company Raspadskaya's announcement this month along with the cutbacks by Russian steel producers as the world financial crisis bites has seriously dampened expectations for coking coal output and prices in 2009.

Mr Kevin Dougherty, manager of the Pharos Russia Fund said that "Next year's order books for many steel companies are empty. He said that "The global crisis caught a lot of people off guard and in the current environment most companies will run down whatever stockpiles they have on hand before placing new orders."

Coking coal producers boasted record profits prior to the market downturn, thanks to booming sales of automotive and construction steel in Russia and abroad. The sudden slowdown in Russian manufacturing is now forcing raw materials producers to slash expansion plans hatched in more prosperous times and seek alternative markets. Russia's major coking coal producers which supply fuel for blast furnaces will have to make changes to stay profitable.

Analysts said miners like the biggest coking coal producer Mechel, must diversify their clients to cut dependence on the moribund Russian and Ukrainian markets although inadequate infrastructure means this cannot be done quickly.

Mr George Buzhenitsa, metals and mining analyst with Unicredit Aton said that "I do make an assumption that Mechel will increase exports to Asia." He said that "They will be better positioned than Raspadskaya which mainly works with Russian clients and also exports about 25% of production to Ukraine."

Unlike its rivals Mechel owns a port in Posiet on the Sea of Japan from which it can supply a range of Asian clients.

Morgan Stanley this week issued a report predicting Russian coking coal output would drop by at least 30% QoQ in the September to December period, followed by a further 10% decline in the Q1 of 2009.

Russia produced 70.1 million tonnes of coking coal in 2007. Morgan Stanley expects 2008 output to decline to 66.3 million tonnes this year before dropping to 60 million tonnes next year.

Its analysts expect 2009 Russian semi hard coking coal prices to average USD 107 per tonnes down 53.5% from the first half of 2008 and they do not see a recovery until the second half of next year at the earliest.

Coking coal shares have suffered heavy selling in the second half of the year. Mechel, Belon group and Raspadskaya are on average worth 85% less than at their peaks. Together they have underperformed the MICEX stock index which has dropped close to 70% from its 2008 high. About 15% of the Pharos Russia Fund was invested in coal and steel during the Q2 before Mr Dougherty closed all his positions.

He said that "Now that demand has collapsed and steel companies are reducing output, coking coal has gone from being among the most attractive to among the least attractive sectors to invest in."

The investor exodus which accelerated when Mr Vladimir Putin PM of Russian criticized Mechel for its domestic coking coal price policy and other issues has hurt investment plans.

Mechel in August pulled a preferred share issue that could have raised more than USD 2.5 billion and last month said it would significantly reduce a USD 5.5 billion five year capital spending plan. Belon, which is listed in Russia is still preparing for a 2009 secondary offering abroad.

A spokeswoman of Belon said that the company will take a final decision in the Q1 of next year.

Russian coking coal producers cannot operate indefinitely if the payment levels reported by Raspadskaya are experienced by all of the companies into 2009.

For now, industry experts are optimistic the sector will avoid the nightmare of barter trade and wage arrears that plagued the Russian mining industry a decade ago.

Mr Alexander Kovalchuk general director of Russia's Institute for Coal Markets said that "The Russian market is more civilised now. Because of what happened in the 1990s barter trading has a bad reputation and no one wants to see it return."

Mr Dmitry Kolomytsyn analyst of Morgan Stanley said if coal miners were to accept steel products for coal we would face the problem of selling the steel in a weak market.he added that "They would cut production or export to Asia. That's much more realistic."

Dr_Who

25-12-2008, 10:12 PM

Anyone know PRC's production cost?

tricha

27-12-2008, 10:36 AM

My biggest concern for PRC is that they have missed out on the boom.

The fixed contract will expire with little chance of delivering any coal. All the major coking coal players are shutting down shop and firing staff to reduce cost. The reason they are shutting shop is due to the lack of buyers. major car companies and steel mills are also shutting shop and having extended holidays.

PRC with continue to have over runs in cost and yet to produce any revenue does not look good on fundamentals. I am also concern the extra $10m they have secured will not last long. Sorry for being so gloomy, but thats how I see it.

Well not that I have ever bought these, but talking to someone that works there.

1st coal train to leave will be March. Thats how long it will take on current mining to fill one train.

The raise bore is experiencing explosions every day, cutting its way up in a explosive enviroment.

Bermuda you did the right thing here, taking the money and running, this baby is not my cup of tea.

Time to ask management so questions folks and the list is long :confused:

Dr_Who

27-12-2008, 07:59 PM

Chinese industry hammered

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/business/story/0,28124,24844901-36418,00.html

manxman

28-12-2008, 07:51 PM

1st coal train to leave will be March. Thats how long it will take on current mining to fill one train.

Not quite that bad. With two grades of coal being produced and the minimum shipment being about 1/2 a Panamax, say 30,000 tonnes of one grade, the first coal train may not leave until 50,000 tonnes of marketable coal has been stockpiled at Pike River.
PRC will not be allowed to clog up Lyttelton with dribbly little stockpiles. The first trainload implies that a minimum shipload will be available.

I think it is fair to say that PRC will miss out on the $300/tonne market. They were only ever going to get the odd load away and insisting on shipping this year runs the risk of offending a long term customer. Everybody is asking for deferred deliveries at the moment. Would have been nice though...

The bottom of the raise bore should be below atmospheric pressure so if they are having gas explosions there is really a problem. The shaft itself is not in the coal and any gas must be coming from the coal seam itself, and we are told that there are no significant gas problems at the coal face.

It would be nice if we got the odd update from management.

winner69

28-12-2008, 08:06 PM

Sniper was always warning us that the cg count of coal dust were so far outside 'acceptable range' to hold up workings. Refer to posts earlier in this thread

winner69

31-12-2008, 09:56 AM

Some 12 million new shares issued ..... diluting existing shareholders holdings by more than 4%

Was conversion of convertible bonds so not unexpected but the impact of such 'dilution' is often overlooked

777

31-12-2008, 10:22 AM

Have we not also reduced the debt in the Balance Sheet by the face value of the bonds. Therefore significantly reducing the dilution effect.

Dr_Who

31-12-2008, 12:44 PM

Have we not also reduced the debt in the Balance Sheet by the face value of the bonds. Therefore significantly reducing the dilution effect.

Further cost over run, no revenue and further capital raising in the future.

Dr_Who

07-01-2009, 03:08 PM

PRC sp going up?

NZD at 60 cents to the USD.
Low coking coal price.
No revenue.
Further opex cost.

Dead cat bounce for PRC?

China turns screws on iron ore giants
http://www.news.com.au/business/story/0,27753,24864541-462,00.html!n (http://www.news.com.au/business/story/0,27753,24864541-462,00.html%21n)

In another bad omen China's first batch of coking coal imports for 2009 are nearly half the levels they were a year ago. China's Ministry of Commerce has decided on an initial quota of 5.78 million tonnes - down from 9.62 million tonnes at the start of last year.

That suggests Australia's biggest trading partner is shifting to greater use of domestically produced coking coal rather than imported product as economic times get tougher.

And it could not come at a worse time for coal producers already starting to suffer after a sharp drop in prices for the energy source.

dsurf

07-01-2009, 04:38 PM

current popular thinking in world markets is that Barrack Obama will get all of his stimulus package & infrastructure spend to be strong.

Overnight - * FTSEurofirst 300 gains 1.9 pct, highest close since Nov 10

* Miners, steel makers soar along with metal prices

PARIS, Jan 6 (Reuters) - European stocks rose on Tuesday for the sixth straight session, as rallying metal prices and hopes of big infrastructure spending boosted mining and steel shares such as ArcelorMittal (MTP.PA).

Dr_Who

07-01-2009, 08:05 PM

This is a dead cat rally. US non farm payroll is due out this week and China's GDP due out this month will put an end to this delusion.

digger

07-01-2009, 08:23 PM

This is a dead cat rally. US non farm payroll is due out this week and China's GDP due out this month will put an end to this delusion.

Confidence and a positive outlook is what is required my dear Dr Who,however high the dead gets bounces around.
Digger

manxman

07-01-2009, 09:06 PM

One thing to remember is that once a coke manufacturer has committed to building a blast furnace of a certain height, he is committed to using coke of a certain strength. If there is a downturn in steel production, then the less economical, smaller, shorter, blast furnaces will be retired first. The high strength coke will be the last be cut back because the most modern, and most efficient plant requires top spec coke.
Its not just the thermodynamics. The newer furnaces have higher levels instrumentation and quality control as well.
If PRC can get the coal out of the ground, they will prosper. Don't worry about cashing on the $300/tonne temporary price. Anyone who insists on the customer taking coal at this price will seriously damage any long term relationship. Best to forget $300/tonne for the short term. For the long term we still have a premium coal.

friedegg

07-01-2009, 09:21 PM

Dr_Who

08-01-2009, 07:58 AM

Well, looks like a dead cat bounce. Commodities fell over night on bad unemployment numbers in the US.

Sehnsucht888

08-01-2009, 03:48 PM

sideline

08-01-2009, 05:14 PM

good news for PRC.. Nice to see something not going to schedule, but the better side of it...

Pike River Coal has completed raiseboring the main 108-metre deep ventilation
shaft from its underground mine to the surface a number of weeks ahead of
schedule.

https://www.directbroking.co.nz/DirectTrade/dynamic/announcement.aspx?id=2139095

The raise bore is experiencing explosions every day, cutting its way up in a explosive enviroment.

Must have been those daily explosions in the shaft Tricha spoke about - they sped things along nicely.

Dr_Who

08-01-2009, 07:19 PM

Anyone know PRC production cost?

Global coking coal miners are cutting cost and shutting down due to low demand. What is PRC's strategy for low global demand for coking coal? Cant possibly operate and continue to mine at a lost.

The company is seeking future funding by selling its Broughton coking coal project in central Queensland, and its Whareatea West coking coal project in NZ.

http://news.smh.com.au/business/profit-warning-hits-eastern-corp-shares-20090108-7cle.html

Rio to cut Kestrel coking coal output by 15pc

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/business/story/0,28124,24887901-5005200,00.html

Dr_Who

09-01-2009, 07:35 AM

Nitaa

09-01-2009, 10:15 AM

bermuda

09-01-2009, 10:30 AM

Dr. I think you are largely a bit late. Most have already factored in a big drop in coking prices for 09 hence the drop in sp from $2 plus to under $1.

Anyone care to guess what prices will be negotiated? Im picking a 50% drop or more

A good post Nita. Obviously you are recovering well. Happy New Year to you.

PRC is a bit different from quite a few of the other coking coal companies.

Firstly, they have probably the best and most sought after coking coal in the world... and as outlined in a few posts above ( Manxman..another good post )..this is a very important quality......

Secondly, they can offer supply security. ( which is more than the Aussies can offer )

I wouldnt want to guess the April 2009 price though. This world is in a mess.

Hoop

09-01-2009, 10:43 AM

Buy Gold, Silver Companies, Sell Coking Coal, Ore, RBC Says

By Jean Chua

Jan. 8 (Bloomberg) -- Gold and silver mining companies will benefit from monetary and fiscal measures designed to revive the global economy, according RBC Capital Markets.

Investors should buy companies including Barrick Gold Corp. (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=ABX%3AUS), the world’s biggest producer of the precious metal, and Newcrest Mining Ltd. (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=NCM%3AAU), Australia’s biggest producer of bullion, RBC said in a research note sent today. RBC is “negative” on bulk commodities, especially steel ingredients coking coal and iron ore.

Central banks and governments are committed to “achieve a recovery in the global economy, which, in our view, should result in a sharp rise in inflation expectations,” RBC said in the report.

Investors should avoid coking coal and iron ore stocks, pending the outcome of contract negotiations before the April 1 start of the Japanese steel year, RBC said.

To contact the reporter on this story: Jean Chua (http://search.bloomberg.com/search?q=Jean+Chua&site=wnews&client=wnews&proxystylesheet=wnews&output=xml_no_dtd&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&filter=p&getfields=wnnis&sort=date:D:S:d1) in London at jchua4@bloomberg.net
Last Updated: January 8, 2009 07:31 EST

Hoops not listening to hyped up news. :p

Hoop is a realist and from his point of view the above article may be correct but logically twisted to add ammunition for the bear brigade.

Hoop thinks that it is the usual Cat and Mouse game time again....annual negotiations to set this years coal prices are beginning ..

Coal producers won big time in 2008... chances are... coal users may win in 2009

Hoop suspects Coal users are helping to spread the word, painting world wide doom and gloom for 2009....their objective is to get coal prices set as low as possible. If Hoop was in the user industry he would be doing the exact same thing :cool: ..wouldn't you??

dsurf

09-01-2009, 10:51 AM

Amid the doom I would like to point out a couple of facts that are particularly relevent for PRC given the recent (bottomed out Nov 08 inmo) commodity price collapse.

1/ PRC has offtake agreements with long term producers who also own a stake in PRC. Surely the indian shareholders will honour these not least to protect their equity stake. This fact alone should make PRC trade at a premium. This appears to be overlooked by many.

2/ PRC will be profitable at $100 tonne and if my memory of the IPO is correct will have recurring ebitda for 18 years of approx $80m p.a. at $100 tonne.

3/ A cornerstoner shareholder (NZO) is very flush with cash so even if capex increased unexpectedly and no bank would lend - it would not matter because NZO will protect their investment

So all long term holders should buy a lot more at these prices.

p.s. DR - Rio etc are deliberately closing mines so that the remaining mines are more profitable as supply will better match demand. Same process as OPEC cutting oil. This is great news for PRC

manxman

09-01-2009, 11:01 AM

A Goldman Sachs JBWere analyst, Malcolm Southwood, said coking coal was the least preferred bulk commodity this year. He expects hard coking coal prices will fall to $US120 a tonne in April, from $US300 a tonne in present contracts.

But $US120 a tonne would still represent the second-highest coking coal price settlement and would be 20 per cent up on 2007.

Thats still well up on prospectus forecasts. All PRC needs is the coal to come out. Management are still sticking with their forecasts, and the ventilation shaft progress report was encouraging.

With the price expected to drop so significantly, it is only rational commercial behaviour for consumers to run down stocks and refuse/delay deliveries. The shipments have probably fallen off more than the underlying demand. Once the new price is settled, then stockpile rebuilding will be the order of the day.

Balance

09-01-2009, 12:00 PM

Indians will be watching closely. When mine is operational, does not take much for them to move to majority control. They will take a very long term view as India's infrastructure upgrade will take many decades.

Offer $1.50 and they will get control.

Dr_Who

09-01-2009, 12:42 PM

Balance, you are making assumptions. Why would they pay $1.50 when they could have bought majority during the IPO at $1.00 with prices at $300? Currently the coking coal price contracts signed are around $80, per Xstrata.

It would be very difficult to raise funds from any institution to acquire coal in this environment.

Plenty of coal companies in Aussie trading at cheaper multiples with good revenue and profit.

upside_umop

09-01-2009, 12:54 PM

IPO prospectus was a figure of $95 doctor.

Once its ramped up, then it will have proven its 1mtpa (hopefully), which at IPO was not proven. Indians/anyone would be more keen to take on the whole operation with lower risk, and with the long term outlook, might be able to secure PRC at a good price.

Balance

09-01-2009, 01:02 PM

Dr_Who

09-01-2009, 01:05 PM

Doc thinks that there are far better value coal play in Aussie and cant see anyone interested in a small mine like PRC in NZ. Maybe I am wrong, but then the market is never rational and movement is based on rumours and emotions.

digger

09-01-2009, 02:38 PM

Of course I am making assumptions. Don't forget the Chinese and Indians take much much longer term view than Western companies.

The share price action suggests something is happening in the background?

Your last two posts Balance are IMHO spot on.In fact i was just thinking why is it that PRC is not at 70 or 80 cents given world events.I have had a number of T/O and have noted the early play each time.It is a bit odd that Pike is doing as well as it is compared with AUS coalers and being a company that as yet no income and development monies still being needed.
Its high grade coal may well suit a long term holders that has a horison beyond this depression. Interesting.
Digger

Paint it Black

09-01-2009, 02:45 PM

Has PRC got an opportunity with all that cheap West Coast land to stockpile large quantities and better smooth out (and even take advantage of) the market fluctuations? Maybe not so easy with the Resource Consent conditions but one would hope they can do this? Any thoughts anyone?

blockhead

09-01-2009, 05:32 PM

Don't know about coking coal but "normal" coal deteriorates once out in the weather, open storage may not be an option.

Paint it Black

09-01-2009, 06:48 PM

Thanks blockhead - I know at Lyttelton they spray the stockpiles. It would be appreciated getting some management feedback on this as to me good stockpiling capacity must improve PRC's ongoing contract negotiating position and hence the future SP. Obviously cashflow needs to be maintained but mining continuity IMO is equally important.

AMR

13-01-2009, 07:13 PM

What's with the insane volume on pike today?

Balance

13-01-2009, 08:00 PM

Price and volume action so typical of takeover coming up?

Corporate

13-01-2009, 08:42 PM

What's with the insane volume on pike today?

insane volume? It wasn't high...

Dr_Who

19-01-2009, 01:41 PM

I still cant see PRC as a T/O target. The fundamentals just dont stack up.

Anyway, I can be wrong and probably look like fool if there is a T/O.

Iron, coal prices to halve as Chinese growth slumps

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/business/story/0,28124,24928823-643,00.html

Balance

19-01-2009, 02:02 PM

Good on you, Doc, for having a view.

Price action on PRC is just strange compared to the Australian coalers.

Nitaa

19-01-2009, 02:18 PM

Good on you, Doc, for having a view.

Price action on PRC is just strange compared to the Australian coalers.
LOL.. yes correct.. PRC has no volume except for the odd mum or dad wanting to sell 100 shares etc

Balance

19-01-2009, 02:31 PM

LOL.. yes correct.. PRC has no volume except for the odd mum or dad wanting to sell 100 shares etc

1 million plus shares done in last few trading days. Love your definition of 'no' volume. One of the better volume stocks in an otherwise asleep market.

Dr_Who

19-01-2009, 05:01 PM

Every coal mine around the world is cutting back on production, some even closed down all together. What is PRC's strategy for drastic slowdown in coking coal demand?

sideline

19-01-2009, 05:06 PM

Every coal mine around the world is cutting back on production, some even closed down all together. What is PRC's strategy for drastic slowdown in coking coal demand?

Simple - by the time PRC can gear up production to their target, the worst will be over.

Dr_Who

19-01-2009, 05:09 PM

Simple - by the time PRC can gear up production to their target, the worst will be over.

LOL.. I love your optimism.

Your assumption is that global pickup will come this year. RIO CEO just mentioned that he doesnt see any pickup for another 2-3 years (see RIO company announcement).

dsurf

19-01-2009, 05:09 PM

Every coal mine around the world is cutting back on production, some even closed down all together. What is PRC's strategy for drastic slowdown in coking coal demand?

This may not be a problem unless the Indian shareholders go belly up - the indian economy is doing fine.

Also the glass is 3/4 full - the prospectus was for price of $100 - with a 100% decline from US$ 300 per tonne PRC will get $150 per tonne - fantastic news prices up 50% from IPO projection.

Think I better buy more!

Nitaa

19-01-2009, 05:11 PM

1 million plus shares done in last few trading days. Love your definition of 'no' volume. One of the better volume stocks in an otherwise asleep market.Balance. Your earlier post comparing PRC to aussie oilers make no sense. Volume traded in PRC is minute compared to our friends across the tasman. If you look back over the last 12 months you will see nothing adventurous with PRC's trading.

Dr_Who

19-01-2009, 05:22 PM

This may not be a problem unless the Indian shareholders go belly up - the indian economy is doing fine.

I love your assessment on india making them different from the rest of the world and that they are not affected by the global recession when China's GDP growth alone will half this year from 14-13% to 6-8%. India must be very special indeed, especially in a fantasy world.

Maybe the Indian GDP growth projection is abit like Satyam?

PM sees econ growth under pressure in 2009/10

http://in.reuters.com/article/businessNews/idINIndia-37511720090118

upside_umop

19-01-2009, 08:06 PM

dr who, they are shareholders, so if they purchase any coal, its in their best interests to purchase it from prc as its essentially at a discounted price and protects their assets. this is what will provide a platform for the shareprice in the future.

re coking coal price, its really hard to tell whats going to happen..some people reckon 150? i wouldnt be suprised to see it go wayyyy under that. but again...things look about kosha to their prospectus - minus the cost increases!

all in all..im still negative prc and for that matter nzo :( just because i think prc could be a drainer on nzo for a while untill the unknowns are sorted out.

Dr_Who

19-01-2009, 09:16 PM

Xstrata just signed a contract recently for $80 coking coal. :eek:

digger

19-01-2009, 09:22 PM

Xstrata just signed a contract recently for $80 coking coal. :eek:

At that price shut it down,or worst case do just enought to keep it ticking over in the event things suddenly pick up.
This recession /depression sure has stood things on there head.
Digger

Dr_Who

19-01-2009, 09:29 PM

At that price shut it down,or worst case do just enought to keep it ticking over in the event things suddenly pick up.
This recession /depression sure has stood things on there head.
Digger

That is why I am interested in the companies strategy for this environment. Maybe the company can answer my question.

What is PRC's strategy for a drastic slowdown in demand for coking coal?

Bilo

19-01-2009, 09:38 PM

Xstrata just signed a contract recently for $80 coking coal. :eek:
Xstrata, Japanese Utilities Agree 2009 Coal Price Cut (Update1)

Email (?Subject=Bloomberg%20news:%20%20Xstrata, Japanese Utilities Agree 2009 Coal Price Cut (Update1) &body=%20Xstrata, Japanese Utilities Agree 2009 Coal Price Cut (Update1) %0D%0A%0D%0A%20http%3A//www.bloomberg.com/apps/news%3Fpid%3Demail_en%26refer=japan%26sid%3DaIvFeT khc3OQ) | Print (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601101&sid=aV3dhoBYk8bA&refer=japan#) | A (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601101&sid=aV3dhoBYk8bA&refer=japan#) A (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601101&sid=aV3dhoBYk8bA&refer=japan#) A (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601101&sid=aV3dhoBYk8bA&refer=japan#)

By Angela Macdonald-Smith
Dec. 18 (Bloomberg) -- Xstrata Plc (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=XTA%3ALN), the world’s biggest exporter of power-station coal, has been forced to accept a cut in prices for annual calendar-year contracts for the fuel with Japanese utilities, Citigroup Inc. and Merrill Lynch & Co. said.
Contracts for coal to be delivered in the year starting Jan. 1, 2009, have been settled at $80 a metric ton, lower than existing benchmark contracts of $125 for the Japanese financial year that started April 1, Citigroup and Merrill Lynch said in Dec. 17 reports. The price is below Citigroup’s forecast of $100 for contracts that start April 1, 2009, the firm said.
The weekly index for thermal coal prices at Australia’s Newcastle, a benchmark for Asia, has dropped 60 percent since a July 4 record amid declining demand and lower crude-oil prices and was $78.25 a ton in the week ended Dec. 12, according to the globalCOAL NEWC (http://www.globalcoal.com/) Index. Most coal imported into Japan is based on contracts for the year starting April 1, rather than Jan. 1.
“Xstrata is a thermal coal-exporting major, and Japan’s coal-fired utilities are all large importers, therefore this agreement would generally be regarded as a benchmark for subsequent calendar year 2009-Japanese Financial Year 2009-10 talks,” Merrill analysts led by Sydney-based Vicky Binns (http://search.bloomberg.com/search?q=Vicky+Binns&site=wnews&client=wnews&proxystylesheet=wnews&output=xml_no_dtd&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&filter=p&getfields=wnnis&sort=date:D:S:d1) said in the report. “The fact that the contract period is not JFY does not undermine the significance of the deals.”
James Rickards (http://search.bloomberg.com/search?q=James+Rickards&site=wnews&client=wnews&proxystylesheet=wnews&output=xml_no_dtd&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&filter=p&getfields=wnnis&sort=date:D:S:d1), a spokesman for Xstrata Coal in Brisbane, Australia, couldn’t be reached for comment.
Decline of 48%
The calendar year contract settlement, which are with utilities including Tokyo Electric Power Co. (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=9501%3AJP), Asia’s biggest utility, “is broadly in line with current spot prices,” Citigroup said. “However, the volumes sold on mid-year contracts are typically smaller than the Japanese financial year-based contracts.”
The last contracts settled between Zug, Switzerland-based Xstrata and the Japanese utilities was in late September at $155 a ton for the Oct. 1, 2008, to Sept. 30, 2009, period, so the latest deals are a $75 “correction,” down 48 percent, Merrill said. The price is the same as Merrill’s forecast for the Japanese financial year ending March 31, 2010, contract of $80, it said.

Down ramping Doc?
Or did you miss the bit about "power station coal"?

I'm with fdsurf on this one. A 50% cut leaves them 50% ahead of the prospectus without the favourable exchange rate.

USD80 for thermal coal has to support the coking coal price - the steel boys wouldn't like to see their precious coking coal being diverted to the thermal market...

Wiremu

20-01-2009, 08:51 AM

TwinkleToes

20-01-2009, 09:10 AM

I wouldn't touch this stock purely because McDouall Stuart were involved.

macduffy

20-01-2009, 09:16 AM

China's GDP growth alone will half this year from 14-13% to 6-8%.

So that means China will do what it did last year, and on top of that an additional 6% to 8% more. I can't see any minus signs in that.

Yes, Wiremu, I have difficulty getting my mind around that one too. But the experts tell us that the world economy has come to rely on high growth rates from the Chinese economy and that China itself needs this growth to handle its increasing urbanisation and employment issues.

Balance

20-01-2009, 09:18 AM

I wouldn't touch this stock purely because McDouall Stuart were involved.

There was an opportunity to double your money in less than a year. McDouall Stuart was prepared to promote Pike and NZO when other brokers stood aside.

Dr_Who

20-01-2009, 10:14 AM

Analyst continues to downgrade coking coal prices.

Coking Coal Prices to Drop 63 Percent in 2009, Macquarie Says

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601081&sid=ayhkhqLxRc4U&refer=australia

dsurf

20-01-2009, 10:35 AM

MacQuarrie are saying $110 for coking coal next year. At that level PRC is still profitable. Good Dr try & look forward - this is a 20 year mine. The financial system is being flooded with money which inevitably will create inflation, growth, shortages etc. Big question is when, 2010, 2011 etc. It is simple - the world needs metals unless the population starts decreasing or cars are banned etc. This will bounce as it did when it was 85c up to 2.50 down to 95c etc etc. I would rather buy at the 85 to 95c end of things!

TwinkleToes

21-01-2009, 01:00 AM

There was an opportunity to double your money in less than a year. McDouall Stuart was prepared to promote Pike and NZO when other brokers stood aside.

Every established broker believed the price was way too high compared to Australian coal producers that did not have the challenges that PRC did.

As was seen with Taupo Motorport and Diligent, McDouall Stuart will float or attempt to float anything and I personally would never touch one of their securities no matter the promotional claims.

Dr_Who

21-01-2009, 07:41 AM

Nitaa

21-01-2009, 07:52 AM

If the global recession continues, there will be further downgrades on iron ore and coking coal prices. Just have to look at the dire situation of auto industry to know what impact it will have on iron ore and coking coal prices.Doc. If you are looking for short term gains forget it. If PRC is not viable this year it will be next year or the year after so the speak. The revu and future profits of PRC is very significant irrespective of what happens during this financial uncertainty. Look at the bigger picture if you are medium to longer term.

TwinkleToes

21-01-2009, 08:40 AM

Doc. If you are looking for short term gains forget it. If PRC is not viable this year it will be next year or the year after so the speak. The revu and future profits of PRC is very significant irrespective of what happens during this financial uncertainty. Look at the bigger picture if you are medium to longer term.

There are many things that could go wrong with this stock before it makes large profits.

Nitaa

21-01-2009, 10:11 AM

There are many things that could go wrong with this stock before it makes large profits.There are many trhings that could go right with this stock before it makes large profits.

discl. do not hold

duncan macgregor

21-01-2009, 10:19 AM

There are many trhings that could go right with this stock before it makes large profits.

discl. do not hold That is the gamble you take. The trader can buy and sell according to market sentiment but the fundies should only buy in a working market when numbers can be worked out. Right now its a gamble. Macdunk

Crypto Crude

21-01-2009, 10:29 AM

duncan macgregor

22-01-2009, 09:09 AM

everybody,
mackdunk picked Pike River in our heads up competition at $1.65 AUS...(at the very top of the chart)...
By the time our comp finished the stock had fallen 50%....
Gambling eah mackdunk...
I like that one...

so mackdunk went from hating PRC to his best pick on the market to hating again...
hehehe mackdunk... someone has to say it...
:D
.^sc Macdunk has told you all that the market would downtrend leading up to a crash. You argued that point all the way through, and was silly enough to ride CUE from 21.6c losing half your funds. I stayed out the market and only bought a few CUE simply because i wanted to steal your thunder if it reversed. Losing 5% in a small trade in one year, and getting 8% in the bank in a crashing market beats whatever you did.
The market will still downtrend i am not stupid enough to even consider buying any shares until it shows a steady reversal.
You are getting more like SNOOPY every day SHREWDY your investment style is pure FA completely ignoring all the market TA signals. You want to change before you lose the lot.
Macdunk

dsurf

22-01-2009, 09:32 AM

And a great call it was (crash) Macd - you really need to investigate CFD's so you can profit on the down moves. You would have made a killing 6 months of last year.

Dr_Who

22-01-2009, 12:40 PM

Here we go. This will determine PRC's sp for 2009. Looks like PRC had a dead cat bounce.

Coking coal producers from Australia, Canada and Russia will start talks with steelmakers this week in Japan to settle contract coking coal prices for the year starting April 1, the Tex Report said Jan. 16, without citing anyone.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601081&sid=awhq3BnL87cw&refer=australia

Crypto Crude

22-01-2009, 09:38 PM

1....Macdunk has told you all that the market would downtrend leading up to a crash. You argued that point all the way through

2....., and was silly enough to ride CUE from 21.6c losing half your funds. I stayed out the market and only bought a few CUE simply because i wanted to steal your thunder if it reversed. Losing 5% in a small trade in one year, and getting 8% in the bank in a crashing market beats whatever you did.

3.....The market will still downtrend i am not stupid enough to even consider buying any shares until it shows a steady reversal.
You are getting more like SNOOPY every day SHREWDY your investment style is pure FA completely ignoring all the market TA signals. You want to change before you lose the lot.
Macdunk

1.... thats absolute cook a hoot mate...
I only told you to buy, and admitedly gave you a fair bit of stick when the market tanked to around 7k on the first retracement, when there was major liquidity issues when the VIX went bananas...
to be honest, had you bought there you would have been indifferent even though the DOW index is 1k higher from those lows...
the companies sps are still the same on that...
no way did I jump on you early on like others did...

Read, the 'what is shrewd crude thinking and doing' thread..
also on the CUE thread on first page...
2008 General market overview and outlook thread mentions it...

yourve gone and bumped your head my good friend...

2.... hahahaha mackdunk...
you are on game mate... im not as silly holding CUE as you think...
I explained it all today on another thread...

3.... your right mate... I am TA...
I wont sell until I see material change...
Ive got 5 years to wait if I have too...
Ive never invested in a stock and been proven wrong by the fundamentals I got in on... Ive only been undone when I

1)had a gamble, eg CTP, FAR $500, TEXO... all within the last year...
2)invested in another sector I knew little about, URA, UOGO, PRE (sold with minimal loss when fireball was pulled...
and now 3)been undone by the markets...

I can handle these 3 beats... Ive eliminated 2) I dont play these stocks..
Im not gambling again on 1)... so its only the markets that can fool me...
whoop dee doo... hehehe...
I'll give up one in 20yrs... or in this case.... 1 in 60years...

if you remember I did sell, but I got back in way too early I guess because of my immaturity....

mackdunk, you are a smart kid... but Im still not convinced that you really have anything on me...

keep searching...
your mate Shrewd...
;)
.^sc

dsurf

23-01-2009, 10:10 AM

shrewd / macd - as much as I enjoy hearing about your investing prowess and disasters I would rather read about prc on this page - maybe you could keep your personal relationship to the "what shrewd is doing thread" or the macd "how to beat the blue eyed brain dead" thread

Crypto Crude

23-01-2009, 10:35 AM

I totally agree...

I made a comment on how Mackdunk picked Pike for a comp and it fell 50%... and then he came back at me... so I had no choice but to defend myself...hehehehe
:cool:
.^sc

Dr_Who

23-01-2009, 11:51 AM

Miners to be hit as China's slowdown worsens

HOPES that Asia would buffer Australian miners from the worst of the deepening global recession have evaporated.

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/business/story/0,28124,24949721-643,00.html

trendy

24-01-2009, 01:52 PM

Time to start panicking. Coal exports are being reneged on. Don't expect the Indian's to pay contracted prices either.

http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/stories/2009/01/24/124598b5c149

Solid Energy is holding talks with customers about disruptions to its exports to Asia.

The state-owned coal mining company hopes to be able to say more about the subject towards the end of the month.

The problem began when four shipments of high grade coking coal bound from the West Coast to unnamed Asian destinations were halted in December.

No reason for the blockage was revealed, but it's understood the world economic decline brought a huge reduction in steel making, meaning less coal is needed for Asian blast furnaces.

Solid Energy is saying little about this, except that it has been talking with its customers and hopes to be able to make a further comment in about a week.

Nitaa

24-01-2009, 07:20 PM

Sumnerned

24-01-2009, 09:42 PM

Agreed.

But what about delaying, prevaricating, procrastinating, obfuscating, expostulating, litigating, mitigating, naysaying, evading, fabricating etc etc

manxman

24-01-2009, 09:44 PM

I wont be commenting on either PRC or NZO in the future as i dont hold shares in either company and only invest in Australia so please dont think that i envy your choice of investments. Best of luck. Macdunk

Remember that gem from December 2007? :D:D

Billy Boy

25-01-2009, 12:38 PM

Activiets report Sept 2008
International DEMAND
Pike River is establishing a new and valuable source of high quality coking coal for the world’s steel market, with fixed supply contracts already in place with Japanese and Indian counterparties and strong interest from other coke and steel-producing nations. Supply contracts are in place at US$300 tonne for the initial production of approximately 100,000 tonnes of Pike River hard coking coal to 31 March 2009.

Q. are these contracts still valid and are they being honourded by all
parties
Cheers BB:)

Dr_Who

25-01-2009, 06:37 PM

AMR

25-01-2009, 09:51 PM

Not looking that great technically as well. That $1 mark is looking like it has changed from support to resistance.

the machine

26-01-2009, 02:02 AM

No point talking about the contract. The coal will not be out when the contract expires. PRC have missed out on the boom, now comes the gloom.

I am predicting PRC to get a new contract south of $110.

The real question is what is the production cost. With constant delays and increase cost, PRC will not be able to meet its forecast. At current market cap, PRC will have to produce alot of coal at very good production to justify its value.

doubt if new coking coal contracts will be that low

under usd$200 yes but not as low as usd$110 maybe usd$140 - 150

but still 3 months to go before they are settled and a heap of good news might spurt it on higher

m

Placebo

26-01-2009, 04:29 PM

Back up the truck a moment. While PRC was in development, and hadn't produced a bean, the international price of coking coal was around $US80 a tonne. Then for a very brief period it spiked to $300-odd on short-term contracts. I think we can discount this $300 period (which Pike did well to get in on) as a short-term anomaly.

When coal was in the 80s, PRC was priced around $1 - and was not producing. Now it is producing, and the possibility of prices around $100 to $110 a tonne are "a bad thing".

Is there something I am missing?

This isn't logical, Captain.

Stranger_Danger

26-01-2009, 04:51 PM

Placebo - I don't really follow PRC so have no idea what their funding needs are.

However, way back when, a drunken chipmunk could raise oodles of cash from "conservative investors" to purchase rockets to fly to the moon to build moon hotels.

Today, not so much...

Perhaps that is a reason why the price of coal is not all the market is thinking about?

ratkin

26-01-2009, 05:57 PM

Does the world still have a steel market?

bermuda

26-01-2009, 06:07 PM

Does the world still have a steel market?

Have a look at China's new railway order.
Pike wont have any trouble selling every ton they produce. The quality will see to that.

Dr_Who

26-01-2009, 07:25 PM

When coal was in the 80s, PRC was priced around $1 - and was not producing. Now it is producing, and the possibility of prices around $100 to $110 a tonne are "a bad thing".

Is there something I am missing?

This isn't logical, Captain.

Have you seen the sp for GCL and MCC in Aussie? These are quality coal company with good revenue, profit and low production cost. PRC is competing with a large number of good quality coal mines around the world with excess supply of coal. In the dream world PRC would be the only coal producer, but the real it tells a different story.

As previously mentioned. One of the fundamental reasons for coking coal rally to $300 was the flooding in Aussie that restricted supply of coal to the world market. Well, the flood is over and there is a global recession with China's GDP halved to 6.8%. Macqaurie forecast for coking coal is south of $110.

shasta

26-01-2009, 08:20 PM

Have you seen the sp for GCL and MCC in Aussie? These are quality coal company with good revenue, profit and low production cost. PRC is competing with a large number of good quality coal mines around the world with excess supply of coal. In the dream world PRC would be the only coal producer, but the real it tells a different story.

As previously mentioned. One of the fundamental reasons for coking coal rally to $300 was the flooding in Aussie that restricted supply of coal to the world market. Well, the flood is over and there is a global recession with China's GDP halved to 6.8%. Macqaurie forecast for coking coal is south of $110.

You can't compare PRC to GCL & MCC.

They sell different varieties of coal.

Pike's hard coking coal is premium quality & is sold to a different market.

Thermal coal has come down, & they both have that, though it's better than the dirty brown rubbish!

Dr_Who

27-01-2009, 11:21 AM

Macarthur cut to hold recommendation

Article from: Dow Jones Newswires (http://www.dowjones.com/)

ABN AMRO has downgraded Macarthur Coal to a hold recommendation from a buy, as demand for its coal wanes.

The analysts said sales deferrals across its customer base have led Macarthur to cut production, profit guidance, dividends and jobs.

“Furthermore, no visibility on demand has essentially forced Macarthur into deferring its growth profile,” ABN said in its client note.

It added that the rapid deterioration in demand from Asian customers has surprised on the downside.

“We believe Macarthur’s response is prudent to weather the storm, but will unlikely draw investor attention until steel markets show some sign of stability.”

Corporate

27-01-2009, 05:08 PM

Positive annoucement today....possible additional reserves of 8mt

blockhead

27-01-2009, 05:17 PM

Blockhead spys more good news,

PRC
27/01/2009
MINE

REL: 1610 HRS Pike River Coal Limited

MINE: PRC: Paparoa Coal Exploration Success

PAPAROA COAL EXPLORATION SUCCESS

Pike River Coal has confirmed the presence of three potentially mineable
seams of low sulphur hard coking coal beneath the main Brunner seam it has
opened up under the Paparoa Ranges.

Chief Executive Gordon Ward says a new exploration hole just drilled from the
surface to more than 250 metres below the Brunner seam, has found three
additional, separate mineable seams of 2.2 metres, 3.4 metres, and 5.4 metres
thickness respectively. The new corehole was located 600 metres north of the
ventilation shaft and 1900 metres northeast from a previous hole drilled into
these coal seams.

The new corehole intersected the first seam 140 metres below the Brunner seam
and the third (and thickest) seam 240 metres below the Brunner seam.

Mr Ward cautions that one drilling test - the first in nearly 20 years - does
not prove the extent of the new resource "but it is a most positive and
encouraging result".

The only previous corehole, located close to the western outcrop along the
Paparoa ranges and about 1.3 kilometres south-west of the ventilation shaft,
intersected six thin seams with just one seam of about 2 metres thickness.
The current hole appears to have all the seams represented, but all seams
have thickened appreciably.

Based on sampling the Paparoa coal seams which are exposed along the western
outcrop, it was expected that the coal resource would improve to the north.
The latest corehole has confirmed this is the case.

Pike River Coal is now waiting for test results, due in a few weeks, on the
quality of coal in each of the three potentially mineable seams.

Over the next 18 months, as mining of the Brunner seam advances, more test
drilling will be undertaken from underground using an in-seam drilling rig,
to establish the thickness and length of the Paparoa seams before any
decisions are made.

Analysis from the original test drilling nearly 20 years ago and sampling
along the western outcrop of the Paparoa Ranges showed the Paparoa seams vary
in thickness with potential for up to 8 million tonnes of recoverable coal.

Mr Ward says if any of the new Paparoa seams prove economically viable, Pike
River Coal would benefit from having a source of low sulphur coking coal
on-site and since much of the infrastructure is already in place development
costs would be significantly reduced.
End CA:00175435 For:PRC Type:MINE Time:2009-01-27:16:10:56

Hoop

27-01-2009, 07:52 PM

Hi Blockhead
As usual the NZX only gives limited info
there is another page with the diagram
http://www.pike.co.nz/shareholder-section/stock-exchange-announcements/stock-announcements-2009/Paparoa%20Exploration%20Success%2027%20Jan%2009.pd f
http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/ScreenShot009.jpg
http://www.pike.co.nz/shareholder-section/stock-exchange-announcements/stock-announcements-2009/Paparoa%20Exploration%20Success%2027%20Jan%2009.pd f

winner69

27-01-2009, 08:12 PM

Hoop - if you register with MyZNX (free) you get all the stuff - generally as attachments

The picture you posted was on the NZX site

Hoop

27-01-2009, 10:12 PM

Hoop - if you register with MyZNX (free) you get all the stuff - generally as attachments

The picture you posted was on the NZX site

Apologies to NZX...yes it is there.
I got the PDF news emailed to me from the Computershare automated service..

Thxs Winner...With all the stuff loaded on my computer I completely forgot about the new NZX website...I clicked on my bookmark and up it came, it remembered my password as well as I was already registered. I just found what I gave up looking for the other day as well on a different stock... and there I was bitching about the NZX ...:o

Dr_Who

28-01-2009, 12:38 PM

Looks like the PRC insiders who pushed the sp up to $1.00 are now wondering why no one cares about the recent PRC announcement.

Wiremu

30-01-2009, 10:35 AM

Dr Who,

And what grounds do you have for accusations of insider trading?

Is it that a share price rise goes against your continuous and often irrelevant flow of negative information?

manxman

30-01-2009, 01:00 PM

FIRST EXPORTS SET FOR APRIL 2009
Pike River's first coal shipment will be to Japan, scheduled for April 2009 in agreement with its customers. Agreement has been reached for 40,000 tonnes of this first coal shipment to be sold at US$300 per tonne.

Bearing in mind the expected movement in the coal price, this is good news indeed.

Dr_Who

31-01-2009, 09:14 AM

What is the cost of production for PRC?

This is a fundamental question for all mining firm, but yet no one here seems to want to know or has an answer to.

You will need to sell alot of coal at a very good price to justify a market cap of $280 million.

AMR

31-01-2009, 09:17 AM

Bearing in mind the expected movement in the coal price, this is good news indeed.

Where was that from?

Sideshow Bob

31-01-2009, 10:09 AM

From here:

http://www.stuff.co.nz/4834150a13.html

Corporate

31-01-2009, 12:08 PM

40,000 tonnes * US$300 / .509 = approx $23.5 Million.

Pretty decent payload

the machine

31-01-2009, 12:49 PM

From here:

http://www.stuff.co.nz/4834150a13.html

for that to happen then all the coal will move via conveyor belt out of the tunnel - hope they have plenty of spare parts to replace "wear parts" remember the delay waiting for exhaust fan blades.

allowing for building stockpile base in lyttleton, then equates to 20 train loads of 45 wagons, to start moving maybe at beginning of march - if shipment is early april.

15,000t storage at railhead, but a lot more at coal preperation facility.

its very good that there is a sale at usd$300/t - will help cashflow once monies received.

m

Dr_Who

04-02-2009, 04:43 PM

What is the cost of production for PRC?

I find it odd no one can answer me the ques above.

Anyway, according to McArthur's (MCC) 2008 numbers PRC will have to bring in at least $168 million revenue to make net $28 million profit to justify a P/E of 10x on todays market cap.

Do you guys think PRC can bring in $168m revenue this year?

upside_umop

04-02-2009, 07:31 PM

dr...read the prospectus. it tell all there...its also been mentioned many times before on this thread if you want to show some initiative and search for it via key words.

168 million in revenue?

well, by some basic arithmetic, we can see that:

1mtpa @ $120 ton / ~ 0.52 = $230m NZD...=$184m AUD

Costs are around (off memory) $80 per ton kiwi (double check prospectus and adjust for events since then...ie higher debt), leaving $150m less tax, royalties...etc

there you go.

Dr_Who

06-02-2009, 09:07 AM

I also think that this years new contract will be $100 p/t.

Short-term outlook for coal grim, says Macquarie

http://www.miningweekly.com/article.php?a_id=152639

The BOWMAN

07-02-2009, 12:28 AM

I also think that this years new contract will be $100 p/t.

Short-term outlook for coal grim, says Macquarie

http://www.miningweekly.com/article.php?a_id=152639

That wouldn't be too bad given the exchange rate today.

Nitaa

07-02-2009, 01:29 AM

I also think that this years new contract will be $100 p/t.

Short-term outlook for coal grim, says Macquarie

http://www.miningweekly.com/article.php?a_id=152639
Thats about $NZ200 .. looks like you are still in the money with Pike

beacon

07-02-2009, 01:49 PM

Thermal for Korea spot $70 p/t recently from memory. Check out the news item for more accuracy before recalculating valuations people ...

beacon

07-02-2009, 01:51 PM

PRC has coking - premium to thermal, also intake kicking up in China. Source baltic dry goods index ...

AMR

07-02-2009, 05:38 PM

Now if someone could find a table on line which compares all the ASX and NZX coal miners in terms of coal grade and production costs...

bermuda

07-02-2009, 08:04 PM

Now if someone could find a table on line which compares all the ASX and NZX coal miners in terms of coal grade and production costs...

If you are looking for coking coal grades, look no further than Pike River coking coal. You won't find a better coking coal in the world. It is simply fantastic and will be highly sought after. (and that is from a very knowledgeable source ).

As for production costs someone else might be able to comment.

manxman

08-02-2009, 06:51 AM

If you are looking for coking coal grades, look no further than Pike River coking coal. You won't find a better coking coal in the world.

Interestingly, the Paparoa coal, just below, shares most of the characteristics of PRC's Brunner coal but appears to be significantly lower in sulphur. If futher drilling confirms the reserve we may see plans to work the Paparoa coal quite soon.

digger

08-02-2009, 08:51 AM

Interestingly, the Paparoa coal, just below, shares most of the characteristics of PRC's Brunner coal but appears to be significantly lower in sulphur. If futher drilling confirms the reserve we may see plans to work the Paparoa coal quite soon.
I would not think so.Pike certaintly at this stage will not want to face further development cost with only the promice of jam tomorrow as a reward.Also functing mines are being shut down with the ore price drop so all bets are off with further development at this stage.It just might make since if Pike had a tax problem to throw some costs to offset the IRD but that to is not a problem so the Pararoa seam will just have to wait till the world and Pike's finances change.

bermuda

08-02-2009, 08:18 PM

I would not think so.Pike certaintly at this stage will not want to face further development cost with only the promice of jam tomorrow as a reward.Also functing mines are being shut down with the ore price drop so all bets are off with further development at this stage.It just might make since if Pike had a tax problem to throw some costs to offset the IRD but that to is not a problem so the Pararoa seam will just have to wait till the world and Pike's finances change.

Gidday Digger,
Hope the Missus and you are well.

Just had a chat with a guy who knows a lot about the coal game. He reckons the market considers PRC 80% derisked and that $US135 will be the April 1st price. Good luck to holders. I think you are onto apretty good thing.

Dr_Who

09-02-2009, 10:12 AM

bermuda

09-02-2009, 10:54 AM

Bermuda, where did you get the $135 price from? The big boys of the coal industry have not even agreed on the coal price contract with the steel makers, so I am wondering how would PRC able to agree on a price?

Thermal coal prices is actually holding better then coking coal. There is more demand for energy than steel in the global market.

Dr,
If you read my post it was not my estimate. It was an estimate from someone that has spent a lot of time in the coking coal business. And it is just that...an estimate.

There is a lot of negotiating going on at the moment and the price could be anywhere. $US135 was just his estimate. PRC have agreed a price. And that price is that which is negotiated by the big boys effective 1st April 2009. Any coal delivered prior to that will be at $US300.

Personally, I think it will be higher than $US135.

Dr_Who

09-02-2009, 11:20 AM

My estimates from reading the analyst reports and global market for coking coal, iron ore and steel is that there is a risk for further downside for coking coal price. So my guess will be south of $110.

Slowdown signs - Vessel queues shortened at Newcastle Port

http://steelguru.com/news/index/2009/02/08/ODE3MjE%3D/Slowdown_signs_-_Vessel_queues_shortened_at_Newcastle_Port.html

Falling coal demand hits north Qld terminal

http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/02/06/2484156.htm?section=business

manxman

09-02-2009, 11:51 AM

From the Prospectus 7.5.1.

Pike River anticipates a dividend payout of 50% of free cash flow.

So once they have ramped up to 80,000 tonnes/month, they are going to have the other 50% of free cash flow for further exploration and development. If Liberty Harbor don't want to cash out, then serious cash may be available in 2012. In the meantime, sorting out consents and licenses, costings and budgets will keep people busy.

Assuming a base price for next year of $100US, at which PRC will be well over break even, the 40k tonnes just sold at $300 represents a wee bonus of $200/tonne or $8,000,000US - say $16,000,000 NZ - excess profit on the one shipload.

China is working hard to tie up Australian resources, so I expect our Indian friends to look to opening up more resources in New Zealand. Opening up a new mine every four years would seem to be a realistic target, given that PRC's Brunner seam will be worked out in twenty years, and any new operations may smaller, rather than bigger.

My pick is for an announcement of intent in 2010, and a final investment decision in 2011. The consents/licenses process should be pretty straightforward.

geezy

15-02-2009, 09:06 PM

any guidance on when they producing coal?? or are they purposely taking their time due to global demand? its been delayed for quite a while now

the machine

15-02-2009, 10:25 PM

any guidance on when they producing coal?? or are they purposely taking their time due to global demand? its been delayed for quite a while now

have been producing coal for quite a while now and started stockpiling at the rail loading facility.

first shipment from lyttlyten in early april.

M

geezy

15-02-2009, 11:12 PM

oh my! thats great news. thanks for the info M, did they make an announcement on that? must have missed that!

Bilo

17-02-2009, 10:41 AM

have been producing coal for quite a while now and started stockpiling at the rail loading facility.

first shipment from lyttlyten in early april.

M

Feb 16 2009 Article from: Dow Jones Newswires (http://www.dowjones.com/)
JAPANESE steel mills will demand a return to 2007 contract prices for coking coal when annual talks resume this week.
The steel mill operators will demand prices return to $US98 a metric ton at talks with Australian and Canadian marketing managers, Macquarie Bank said in a report released over the weekend.

Last year, when benchmark prices tripled because of devastating floods in Australia’s Bowen Basin in Queensland, the world’s largest producing region of coking coal, the contract settlement was $US300 per ton.

With global steel prices down 40 per cent, Japanese mills are demanding a much lower price, but coal producers cite higher costs and recent spot price sales into China to support contract price aspirations at more than $US130 per ton, Macquarie said.

The bank forecasts a 2009 benchmark of $US110 per ton.

Recent sales into China concluded at between $US130-$US150 per ton, with Chinese domestic prices at $US150-$US160 per ton.

These unusually high Chinese domestic prices are drawing imports from the weak seaborne market, but the bank expects support for prices to be limited.

“Given the weakness in global demand and our view that the coking coal market will remain comfortably supplied, we would expect contract prices to have to trade down to levels that put high-cost producers under threat of closure,” Macquarie said, referring to US and Canadian producers such as Western Canadian Coal Corp.

BHP Billiton is the world’s largest supplier of seaborne coking coal through its 50-50 joint venture with Mitsubishi Corp, the BHP Billiton Mitsubishi Alliance.

geezy

17-02-2009, 03:04 PM

wasnt the forecast of PRC at USD90 per tonne in the prospectus? With the NZ dollar down 40%. Still bullish on PRC, will continue to pick despite the gloom.

RossT

19-02-2009, 10:23 AM

News - Ventilation shaft collapse.

Definitely has the potential to be a major.

Hoop

19-02-2009, 10:38 AM

News - Ventilation shaft collapse.

Definitely has the potential to be a major.

When did the collapse happen ..this morning or yesterday? From the sudden drop in shareprice yesterday I had a gut feeling something was up ..but dismissed in the end as a Global down day blues...but after this mornings announcement if the collapse happened yesterday it seems some investors may have been "in the know"....Hmmm

the machine

19-02-2009, 11:02 AM

that might put a dent in production for first shipment in april to japan @ usd$300/t.

M

biker

19-02-2009, 11:09 AM

More cost - substantial I would think, and a delay that could also be substantial.

$300 looking more and more like a pipe dream.

blockhead

20-02-2009, 09:20 AM

Definitely not what we wanted to hear

GENERAL

REL: 1012 HRS Pike River Coal Limited

GENERAL: PRC: Pike River Coal Ventilation Shaft Rock Fall Being Remedied

PIKE RIVER COAL (PRC) VENTILATION SHAFT ROCK FALL BEING REMEDIED

Pike River Coal's new 108 metre ventilation shaft has suffered a rock fall
affecting a 30-metre zone near the bottom of the shaft. Remedial activities
are underway.

Following the successful raise boring of the ventilation shaft in January
2009, the construction contractor commenced at the surface to bolt and mesh
the walls of the shaft working down towards the coal seam. Due to the
potential for falling rock, it is not possible to work in a shaft below an
unsupported area.
The top 66 metres of the shaft was successfully supported and stabilised,
prior to a rock fall affecting a zone of nearly 30 metres near the bottom of
the ventilation shaft. This rock fall has blocked ventilation to the mine
from the shaft, delaying mining operations underground until ventilation is
re-established. The shaft is critical to venting mine air and gases to the
surface and providing fresh air to the mine face for mining to operate
safely.

Chief Executive Gordon Ward says "whilst very frustrating and unexpected by
all parties including the contractor and its technical experts, the problem
will be remedied and all steps are being taken to do so in the quickest time
possible. The area identified as possibly problematic before raise boring was
the top 35 metres where we had injected cement and this area has stood up
well". Insurance assessors have attended site and are preparing their reports
on the incident.

Pike River Coal is investigating alternative methods of remedying the problem
to reinstate ventilation from the shaft. One step already underway to ensure
the top 66 metres of the shaft is protected, is to fly concrete in by
helicopter and pipe it down the shaft to fill a cavity at the top of the rock
fall.

It is expected that the bottom part of the shaft will be remedied by raising
an angled drive from the tunnel using the "Alimak" method to intersect the
main shaft at about 40 metres above its base. A contractor will be promptly
mobilised from Australia to undertake this driveage. In the meantime, there
is only enough ventilation for limited pit bottom development operations,
although alternatives for getting more air into the mine are being
investigated.

Pike River Coal will provide further advice to the market on the status of
the ventilation shaft and implications for operations within the next 10
days.

freddy

20-02-2009, 09:23 AM

When did the collapse happen ..this morning or yesterday? From the sudden drop in shareprice yesterday I had a gut feeling something was up ..but dismissed in the end as a Global down day blues...but after this mornings announcement if the collapse happened yesterday it seems some investors may have been "in the know"....Hmmm

it was in local paper last friday, one week ago.

The BOWMAN

20-02-2009, 12:01 PM

Good thing is nobody is injured or killed. Otherwise that would made headline news. Good reminder to check out for the quality. My confidence is shaken a bit. What about the rest of the shaft? Potential rock falling hazard throughout?

Hoop

20-02-2009, 12:37 PM

it was in local paper last friday, one week ago.

Thxs Freddy and a warm welcome, as a poster.

I wonder if the fault line only being 100 metres or thereabouts from the ventilation shaft is the cause of this rock being fractured like it is ?
Yes Bowman ..concerns

croesus

20-02-2009, 01:22 PM

I put a post on re a conversation I had with some retired Mine Managers at the Blackball Workingmens Club... about Pike River and faults/fractured rock.... didnt meet universal acclaim from the likes of Dsurf and Bermuda....20/08/08... maybe those old codgers know their stuff. After all they spent all there working life in the Blackball, and Roa, mines.

Spitting distance (almost) from Pike River.

Its not difficult ... guys.. jump on a plane.. then rent a car.. travel to Blackball.. and have a chat... no lattes or paninis...and the formerly Blackball Hilton.. only has toilets and showers at the end of the hall....

PRC is still a short in my view....where will be the S/P after the next big rock slide/ cave in.??

croesus

20-02-2009, 01:29 PM

Without being smug I am pleased I am not currently a holder... I well remember a conversation I had with a cpl of retired mine managers at the Blackball Workingmens Club a year or so back.. they advised caution, spoke of fractured rock, problems with the fault line...etc etc.. I posted about that,... on this thread or the NZO thread can not recall which.... from memory it did'nt result in universal acclaim from other posters....

My point is,.... this hold up may get a lot lot worse... this may drag the S/P way down..
Some may label me Cassandra instead of Croesus....fair enough....if you have margin traded PRC or its parent.... have a wee thought about your personal exposure...

cheers C.

Havnt tried this before.. here is the post

Placebo

20-02-2009, 03:05 PM

Dr_Who

20-02-2009, 03:32 PM

bermuda

20-02-2009, 03:57 PM

You are on to it mate. Thanks for your informative info.

The demand is pointing to coking coal to go below $100.

I dont hold but am watching all the comments which is why I got out. I wonder if these queensland floods shut down a few coking coal mines. PRC has a lot going for it. But so do a lot of others.

RossT

20-02-2009, 06:33 PM

Think about it, the bottom section of the shaft was the section deemed good ground. The top 30-40 meters was suspect so was stabilised with grout and also the boring system changed from alimak to raise-bore due to suspect ground.

The bottom section ( the part thought good ) has suffered the collapse, leaving the top section (the already bad bit ) less supported. ( Although the top 60 odd meters has been meshed and bolted ).

The cavity under the top section now has to be filled, ( with some urgency I would imagine ) with concrete, to give the top section the support it needs to be deemed competent.

Why would you buy pike at the mo before you knew the work needed to prevent the rest of the shaft coming down too, had been completed successfully?

The bottom section of the shaft is no longer. Another tunnel needs to be driven on an angle up to meet the bit that is still open, completely changing the whole shaft-pit-bottom area, fan placement etc.....hope the insurance covers it...

croesus

20-02-2009, 07:45 PM

Fred .. said yesterday,.... it was in the local paper last week.( the rock fall).

If he is correct.. why were shareholders s not advised last week.... ?
disc.. not a shareholder.

Balance

20-02-2009, 08:24 PM

Did someone not mentioned a while ago that the rock formation at PRC is a problem? Digger?

Dr_Who

20-02-2009, 09:36 PM

Fred .. said yesterday,.... it was in the local paper last week.( the rock fall).

If he is correct.. why were shareholders s not advised last week.... ?
disc.. not a shareholder.

Thats a very good question.

Maybe get the NZSE to ask them that question. Should also look into who has been selling prior to the announcement.

winner69

22-02-2009, 08:27 PM

Sniper always said that something like this would happen .... rock overhangs, high gas counts and fractured rock formations ... wonder where Sniper is these days

shasta

22-02-2009, 08:53 PM

Sniper always said that something like this would happen .... rock overhangs, high gas counts and fractured rock formations ... wonder where Sniper is these days

I think you'll find Sniper is still quite close to the PRC thread...

blockhead

22-02-2009, 09:43 PM

He must be struggling to keep quiet at the moment, sniggering in his tea I suspect

digger

22-02-2009, 10:26 PM

It seems to me most of you posters are not from mining familes. I am but i was never a miner,although it is part of the family. Brought up knowing that my fathers only brother was killed by a rock fall on the very first day on the job.OK that was about 90 years ago.
my brother lived all his life as a miner in canada and managed several mines in his career.Way back in 1970 i visited his underground mine and was told to stay in a secure place. Two days later in was exactally where the roof caved in.
Now my point here is that there will always be the odd rock slide when dealing with undwerground mining.It is par for the coa-rse and not the end of the world. Really it is a bit like car deaths,they happen but we do not rip up all the roads to prevent it happening in the future.
What has happened is unfortunate but lets keep it in mind that 2.5 klms of underground tunnels have now been construced without any mishap.Because of this i think it is time for a bit of realism to creep back in and move forward.Here i suggest we fix up the rock colapse and scrap up the road kill and carry on.
My holding in PRC is now only a small precentage of formerly but still interested through NZO.
Digger

Billy Boy

23-02-2009, 11:16 AM

I am from a mining family and have worked underground.
Rock falls happen in any mine from time to time. Yes every
endeavour is made to stop them, but S**t happens. There
is no need to get all twisted up about it.
They will just clear it, re enforce the shaft and move on.
BTW if you all read the announcement, I think the word
"insurance' was mentioned there somewhere. Maybe I an wrong !
BB :)
PS 4get the F***in rock fall, coz its really bugger all, wont close
the operation forever.....

manxman

23-02-2009, 12:05 PM

PS 4get the F***in rock fall, coz its really bugger all, wont close
the operation forever.....

Question is - will the first shipment get away at $300/tonne or will this delay operations too much?

Billy Boy

23-02-2009, 12:31 PM

Question is - will the first shipment get away at $300/tonne or will this delay operations too much?

The bottom line is $$$, I would presume the insurance cover would include
"loss of production/profits"
BB :)

RossT

23-02-2009, 01:11 PM

I'd have to disagree with a line in your second to last post Billy, that they'll "just clear the shaft and reinforce it....".

The ann says that they are in all likelyhood having to alimak a new drive to intersect the remaining shaft, leaving the collapsed area. Obviously the collapse is too large and unstable to attempt clearing it.

Now, having to resort to raising an angled drive using the alimak system ( the system they originally aborted due to the ground being not stable enough ) begs the question.. "Well if you couldn't safely alimak that ground before, what makes you think you can safely alimak it now ? ( After a collapse ??? ) The answer is because there is really no other option. Not a desirable position to be in.

But no its not the end of the world, just time and money. Lets hope there are no contractual disputes regarding who is responsible for fixing this, between prc and the contractor, Mc Dwl. The legal s--tfight that evolved between Meridan and FDI over rock conditions on the 2MTT springs to mind......

AMR

23-02-2009, 01:47 PM

But no its not the end of the world, just time and money. Lets hope there are no contractual disputes regarding who is responsible for fixing this, between prc and the contractor, Mc Dwl. The legal s--tfight that evolved between Meridan and FDI over rock conditions on the 2MTT springs to mind......

PRC is probably responsible for the cost of fixing it. For civil works under NZS3910 contract agreements the client assumes all risk resulting from unforeseen ground conditions. I say probably because I've never done a coal mine before.

Corporate

23-02-2009, 07:50 PM

The buy side looks very unhealthy! Only one buyer for 15,000 @ 80c and that is it!

RossT

23-02-2009, 08:13 PM

The buy side looks very unhealthy! Only one buyer for 15,000 @ 80c and that is it!

I was just about to post the very same thing! I've never seen it that weak before. Not a good look.

Corporate

23-02-2009, 08:18 PM

I was just about to post the very same thing! I've never seen it that weak before. Not a good look.

Might be worth putting in a cheeky 50c bid for anyone that NEEDS to sell...

patrick

23-02-2009, 08:30 PM

CORPORATE
Why so high?

Dr_Who

24-02-2009, 07:55 AM

Might be worth putting in a cheeky 50c bid for anyone that NEEDS to sell...

You may get your 50 cents.

The coking coal price contracts will be out soon which will also set PRC's contract for this year.

I predict $80-$110.

Rabbi

24-02-2009, 09:15 AM

The Bears arer running and the downrampers are clapping from the sideline.

This market is looking very good for traders if they can pick the bounces.;)

Nitaa

27-02-2009, 11:03 AM

FOR RELEASE: 27 FEBRUARY 2009
Results for announcement to the market
Reporting period: 6 months ended 31 December 2008
Previous reporting period: 6 months ended 31 December 2007

6 months to 31 December 2008 6 months to 31 December 2007 Increase / (decrease)
NZD 000â€™s NZD 000â€™s %
Operating revenue - - -
(Deficit)/surplus from ordinary activities after tax attributable to security holders
(9,551) (1,579) n/a
Net (deficit)/surplus attributable to security holders (9,551) (1,579) n/a

As at 31 December 2008 As at 31 December 2007 Increase / (decrease)
Net tangible assets per share $ 0.734 $ 0.765 (4) %

Amount per security Imputed amount per security
Interim/final dividend n/a n/a
Record date n/a
Dividend payment date n/a

FOR RELEASE: 27 FEBRUARY 2009
Results for announcement to the market (continued)

Reporting period: 6 months ended 31 December 2008

Previous reporting period: 6 months ended 31 December 2007

Commentary:
Pike River Coal Limited (â€˜Pike Riverâ€™) reports a net deficit of NZ$9,551,000 for the six
months ended 31 December 2008. The result reflects the pre-production status of the Pike
River premium hard quality coking coal mine and the effect of the significant decline in
the New Zealand dollar exchange rate relative to the United States dollar, on the
convertible bonds held by Liberty Harbor. An unrealized exchange loss of $10.8 million
was reported on the convertible bonds, and this loss will reverse if those bonds are
converted into shares during their term (expiring March 2011).

Pike River made the breakthrough to coal during the half year ended 31 December 2008 and
has now completed all surface infrastructure needed for mining.

Some geological challenges in the tunnel and pit bottom area have been encountered and
overcome in the past six months. Most recently, work has been required to remedy an
unexpected rock fall in the lower portion of the ventilation shaft. The timing was
unfortunate coming just as Pike River was about to commence its ramp-up of coal
production.

On the international front, the hard coking coal market appears to be in reasonable shape
despite the international downturn. Self-restraint exercised by major coal producers in
cutting back production and signs of recovery in China are expected to support coal
prices at levels significantly higher than forecast at the time of Pike Riverâ€™s 2007
initial public offer.

At the mine all surface infrastructure has been completed and commissioned including the
coal preparation plant and rail loadout facility. Once the ventilation shaft is
reinstated the company will work through a ramp-up period to achieve full production in
the fourth quarter of 2009.

All the construction challenges to date have been overcome through the commitment of Pike
Riverâ€™s skilled staff and the contract staff of the award-winning McConnell Dowell
construction company. McConnell Dowell shouldered much of the work of cutting the 2.3
kilometre access tunnel, carving out pit bottom and constructing the ventilation shaft.

Throughout this process the Pike River mine has maintained a solid safety record, with no
significant injuries or safety issues above or below ground.

Pike River has been recognised by the Government for its efforts in safeguarding an
outstanding scenic environment by harmonising a commercial mine with its natural
surroundings.

Once the shaft is fixed, the stage will be set for a successful long term mining
operation, with a strong revenue stream from exports of a high quality product.

Accompanying this announcement are Pike Riverâ€™s condensed interim financial statements
for the six months ended 31 December 2008 that have been prepared in accordance with New
Zealand generally accepted accounting practice (NZ GAAP) and give a true and fair view of
the matters to which the financial statements relate.

Pike Riverâ€™s auditors (KPMG) have reviewed the interim financial statements and their
review report is attached to the financial statements.

This announcement together with the attached financial statements provides the
information required in accordance with NZSX Listing Rule 10.4.1, NZSX Listing Rule
Appendix 1 and ASX Listing Rule 4.2A

AMR

27-02-2009, 11:18 AM

PRC in trading halt? Cap raising?

Today PRC is testing the previous low of 80c touched about 2 months after the IPO. If it respects support I might be interested again.

Xerof

27-02-2009, 11:43 AM

It's in the notes to the accounts - in black and white ........

[/quote]
20. Subsequent events

Pike River Coal is considering a possible pro-rata rights issue of shares to raise additional capital due to the three month delay in coal production caused by a rock fall in the ventilation shaft.
[/quote]

Could also be some complications with the terms of the Convertible Notes issue - they need to be at ~~66k tons monthly production by June 30 2009.

777

27-02-2009, 11:54 AM

Well that is somewhere for some of NZO's money to go.

Rights issue, that is.

Nitaa

27-02-2009, 12:02 PM

Problem is as a nzo shareholder i dont want to keep throwing good money after bad like the us government is with the finance and auto sector

RossT

27-02-2009, 12:24 PM

The ann says that they are in all likelyhood having to alimak a new drive to intersect the remaining shaft, leaving the collapsed area. Obviously the collapse is too large and unstable to attempt clearing it.

Now, having to resort to raising an angled drive using the alimak system ( the system they originally aborted due to the ground being not stable enough ) begs the question.. "Well if you couldn't safely alimak that ground before, what makes you think you can safely alimak it now ? ( After a collapse ??? ) The answer is because there is really no other option. Not a desirable position to be in.

The shaft has suffered a major collapse. The only collapse, or the first of ( x? ) is yet to be seen.

Saying your going to fix the sahft and actually getting it done are two completely different things. If anyone can answer my question I asked above re "Why do you think you can safely alimak that ground now?" I'm all ears....

nwood

27-02-2009, 12:41 PM

27 February 2009

NZX Regulation Announcement
Pike River Coal Limited (PRC)
Trading Halt of Securities

NZX Regulation advises that, at the request of the company, it has placed a trading halt
on PRC securities. PRC is listed on the NZSX market. The trading halt has been placed
pending a material announcement.

Xerof

27-02-2009, 01:37 PM

The grab for coal producers 'heating up' ..... GCL.ASX received a 100% all cash offer this morning..........

no inferences intended.......fairly sure PRC halt relates to the (prematurely released?) intentions for cap raising.....

Dr_Who

27-02-2009, 08:01 PM

My biggest concern for PRC is that they have missed out on the boom.

The fixed contract will expire with little chance of delivering any coal. All the major coking coal players are shutting down shop and firing staff to reduce cost. The reason they are shutting shop is due to the lack of buyers. major car companies and steel mills are also shutting shop and having extended holidays.

PRC with continue to have over runs in cost and yet to produce any revenue does not look good on fundamentals. I am also concern the extra $10m they have secured will not last long. Sorry for being so gloomy, but thats how I see it.

I posted this last year in Dec and have been voicing my concern about PRC ever since.

I am still concern the continue extra increase cost of production and low contract price will squeeze PRC's margin. Would like to read PRC's strategy before committing anything.

STRAT

28-02-2009, 11:53 PM

I posted this last year in Dec and have been voicing my concern about PRC since.

I am still concern the continue extra increase cost of production and low contract price will squeeze PRC's margin. Would like to read PRC's strategy before committing anything.Howdy Doc, You werent by any chance the bearded fellow I met at the Christchurch Share Trader meeting?

nwood

02-03-2009, 08:49 AM

Any ideas when the announcement that halted trading will be released?

freddy

02-03-2009, 08:58 AM

asx trading hlat ends at start of trading tomorow

http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20090227/pdf/31g9mwk2fp2n1m.pdf

blockhead

02-03-2009, 08:59 AM

We can only guess, I am more interested in the subject of the announcement, takeover ? NZO reducing holding ? rock overhang (sniper)...surprised at the lack of conjecture on this matter.

My $$ worth says increase in holding by Indians

Dr_Who

02-03-2009, 09:58 AM

Howdy Doc, You werent by any chance the bearded fellow I met at the Christchurch Share Trader meeting?

Na mate, you must have me mistaken for someone else.

OH NO!

China steel lockdown hits exports

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,25124580-601,00.html

blockhead

02-03-2009, 03:11 PM

Someones got the wind up, selling @ 30c...either that or the whole bloody vent shaft just caved in

sideline

02-03-2009, 03:16 PM

Someones got the wind up, selling @ 30c...either that or the whole bloody vent shaft just caved in

Or somebody is just trying to jump the queue while selling (atm at 79).
Or somebody is just trying to scare you out of your shares.

boysy

02-03-2009, 03:17 PM

looks a bit ominous might explain some of the fall in nzo today come tomoro i recon a rights issue is on order

777

02-03-2009, 03:23 PM

asx trading hlat ends at start of trading tomorow

http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20090227/pdf/31g9mwk2fp2n1m.pdf

This announcement does not actually say that. It says the earlier of an announcement by PRC or the start of trading tomorrow, unless it (ASX) decides otherwise.

Sehnsucht888

02-03-2009, 03:48 PM

looks a bit ominous might explain some of the fall in nzo today come tomoro i recon a rights issue is on order

NZO is only down 4% right now... considering the ASX is down 3%, NZX 1.5% (ASX more suggestive I think given the greater resource weighting).
- So the drop is not that bad, and given Oil went down a bit, not just the DOW - it seems about right.
I can't see real bad news out there for PRC, but the suspense is high. I vote for information on a Rights Issue.

Xerof

02-03-2009, 04:13 PM

I vote for information on a Rights Issue.

So do they.....

20. Subsequent events

Pike River Coal is considering a possible pro-rata rights issue of shares to raise additional capital due to the three month delay in coal production caused by a rock fall in the ventilation shaft.

I can't imagine they would need a large amount for this, so maybe its a $2000 or $5000 per shareholder type Issue.......rather than a pro-rata issue.

Just enough to allow them to keep the headroom of undrawn bank facilities

Balance

02-03-2009, 04:16 PM

So do they.....

I can't imagine they would need a large amount for this, so maybe its a $2000 or $5000 per shareholder type Issue.......rather than a pro-rata issue.

Just enough to allow them to keep the headroom of undrawn bank facilities

Looks like it could be for as much as $50m. 1 for 3 at 50 cents?

sideline

02-03-2009, 04:16 PM

NZO is only down 4% right now... considering the ASX is down 3%, NZX 1.5% (ASX more suggestive I think given the greater resource weighting).
- So the drop is not that bad, and given Oil went down a bit, not just the DOW - it seems about right.
I can't see real bad news out there for PRC, but the suspense is high. I vote for information on a Rights Issue.

Hey, steady guys! The 30c ask has disappeared again. Just somebody having a bit of fun!

Unicorn

02-03-2009, 06:40 PM

Looks like it could be for as much as $50m. 1 for 3 at 50 cents?

$50M does not make sense, based on what has been announced to date (but then again what has been announced may not reflect what is really going on).

Based on past performance you would have to assume that the "3 month delay" will end up being closer to 6 months. Extrapolating payments to suppliers and employees from the last accounts, indicates that another $8M should easily cover that period. Plus perhaps $7M to fix the ventilation shaft (the first shaft supposedly cost $7M). I would have thought that $15M should be plenty.

The failure to get the $300 per tonne shipment away could mean something like $10M of forecast income will not be received (and perhaps the board was relying on some of that).

So I can see that raising another $20M might be justified, but anything beyond that would indicate something sinister in my opinion. 1 for 8 at 60c seems nearer the mark, in my opinion.

Balance

02-03-2009, 06:54 PM

If it was a smallish amount like $20m, would have been raised by now. Smells much bigger and much worse. Something is not right.

winner69

02-03-2009, 06:55 PM

.......in my opinion. 1 for 8 at 60c seems nearer the mark, in my opinion.

... and would the shareprice fall to 60 cents then as seems to happen these days when a 'discounted' rights issue is announced

manxman

02-03-2009, 07:58 PM

Looks like it could be for as much as $50m. 1 for 3 at 50 cents?

I think you are right about the $50m Balance, but I hate the thought of a rights issue.

As I recall, any substantial delay in ramping up coal production will trigger a bail-out option for Liberty Harbor. Unless PRC can renegotate (again) the trigger time then they will have to raise replacement capital. If the market won't support a rights issue, things could turn ugly, dropping the share price right down to the issue price. Dangerous indeed.

If NZO underwrites the capital raising then they will increase their holding in PRC and may need waivers from several sets of regulators. Likewise the Indian shareholders may find themselves forced over the 20% level. The tidiest way would be for NZO simply take over from Liberty Harbor, but that may not be in NZO's best interest. They really want to exploit the opportunities in the oil business. Rescuing PRC would surely be a last resort.

Perhaps Liberty Harbor will stick around. We can but wait and see what cunning plan is eventually revealed.

geezy

02-03-2009, 08:03 PM

relax guys, lets wait and see what happens tmrw.

All the best to PRC and to me as I have just bought quite a few over the past week.

Unicorn

02-03-2009, 08:52 PM

Ooops, things are not looking good. I found the following in the Rights Prospectus, related to the US$30M Liberty Harbor facility.

Bonds will be issued on terms and conditions which include a number of conditions and covenants which are common to facilities of this nature. They include covenants relating to debt service cover ratios and the ongoing assessment of budgeted cashflows and dates by which Pike River must achieve first coal (1 July 2008) and by which production is to average in excess of approximately 66,667 tonnes per month (30 June 2009). If any of these covenants are not met, the position is reviewed for a period of not less than 30 days, following which Bondholders may, by notice, require repayment immediately if financial covenants are involved, or after a further period of 60 days in other circumstances.

My guess is that the covenants have not been met (or soon will not be met), so PRC may need to come up with $60M or so, just to repay the bonds. And that is on top of the cost blowout and income loss caused by the collapse. Not a great environment to find that sort of cash in, and I doubt that either Liberty Harbor or NZO will be taking a particularly charitable position. Probably not a good time to be a small shareholder.

Crypto Crude

02-03-2009, 09:09 PM

recent events were behind the reason why I was defensive on PRC in the past...
I didnt really understand the risks of the whole Coal process, so I stood well clear...I wasnt interested, didnt have my heart in coal, so stood well clear... many of us were left flapping in the wind when the SP really 'rocked along'... get it... hehehe.... a company with strong fundamentals....
Lizard was the real star, selling in an uptrending stock with blue sky... all in all, bar recent company specific events, most of the downfall is market and coal price related...
lets hope theres not too much downside from here...

I think just like many projects of different sectors (in the past) ran bullish on fundamentals alone and didnt need to have production for them to rerate, and become over priced...... Now its a totally different ball game...
NZO is the greatest NZX stock...with or without Pike....
Im not for one second writing PRC off by saying that...

last year Mackdunk was tipping PRC as his best Resource stock pick on the NZX/ASX at $2.50, after rubbishing it for many years (before that).....
now its 80cents and in a trading halt...
what a pity, mackdunk got it right but changed his tone at the worst time when PRC was peaking, and then rode it all the way back down...
hey mack dunk e pooh....;)....
:cool:
.^sc

Xerof

02-03-2009, 09:20 PM

Unicorn's on to it....

and MacDunk will be here shortly to give you a burst SC :cool::cool:

Crypto Crude

02-03-2009, 10:01 PM

xerof,
mackdunks a good fella...
I shouldnt bait him...

I cant help it
sorry
;)
.^sc

Dr_Who

03-03-2009, 06:25 AM

The rot continues.

The fear now is that coking coal contract this year may come below $100 while PRC production cost increases.

What is PRC's strategy going forward for the next two years? No one knows, cos they dont know themselves.

swissboy

03-03-2009, 08:16 AM

Why should it not be something positive like NZO advancing some of their surplus cash holding at reasonable rates until PRC gets going

bull....

03-03-2009, 09:09 AM

All this bad news about delays fits in with my price view on pike. posted 8/12/08 by Bull

We could see a short term consolidation between 80 - 1.1 as price has completed wave 3 on the downside so wave 4 is a consolidation or short term upmove time to complete unknown , this is ususally followed by a final push to the down side and last support at 80 if broken will confirm move to historic lows my assumption considerably lower than now.

The stars are definitely not in alignment for this pup , they missed the party by 2 years.

nwood

03-03-2009, 09:36 AM

Pike River Coal is on the hunt for more money to complete its West Coast mine development after a rockfall delayed production and sales.

Trading of PRC's shares has been suspended since 11.15am on Friday pending an announcement about the financial implications of the rockfall. A statement is expected today.

The rockfall in the newly finished 108-metre ventilation shaft two weeks ago means PRC will not meet June production targets and its first shipping deadline at the end of next month.

The miner has been relying on revenue to come from coal sales to fund the last part of the project, but the rockfall has delayed production by three months.

PRC mines general manager Peter Whittal said the rockfall had come at a difficult time in the project's lifecycle.

"The latter part of the project is funded by revenue from coal sales so obviously that being deferred makes funding over the latter part of the project the issue that we're dealing with at the moment."

A $40 million hydro mining system needed so the mine could reach full production was to be bought with money gained from coal sales.

"That is pretty much what is left on the project to spend," Whittal said.

The company also had to figure out how to pay for the $7m cost of the rockfall.

Whittal said he hoped insurance would cover between $2m and $3m of the cost, but he would not comment on how the company would pay for the shortfall. It expected to make that information available today.

The company was considering its options about how to fund the last stage of the project, Whittal said. "As soon as we start selling coal, we will get the money back again. It's a short- term issue."

Christchurch sharebroker Hamilton Hindin Greene director Adrian Vance said PRC could look at raising money from banks, existing shareholders or fresh capital, but it could not have happened at a worse time, with world markets under extreme pressure.

PRC could be fortunate because one of its big shareholders, NZ Oil and Gas, had a fair bit of cash on its balance sheet, Vance said.

Whittal said the rockfall was not a project stopper, but the timing was disappointing. "This is just a big annoyance for us."

The first shipment of 40,000 tonnes was to be sent to Japan at the end of next month, but that would not happen until the July quarter, he said.

PRC had planned to be in full production by June, producing 160,000 tonnes of coal by June 30.

It was not expected to reach full production now until the fourth quarter.

There were no penalties in not meeting the Japan deadline, but there was no guarantee it would still get US$300 (NZ$607) a tonne for all 40,000 tonnes, Whittal said.

Annual coal pricing negotiations were under way and could be about US$130 to $140 a tonne, higher than the US$95 predicted in its prospectus.

The rockfall affected nearly 30 metres at the bottom of the shaft, needed to let out gases and to provide fresh air to the mine face.

A big portion of the cost of fixing the shaft was the 800 cubic metres of concrete brought in by helicopter to stabilise the shaft.
http://www.nzx.com/news/markets/4866541

Lego_Man

03-03-2009, 09:46 AM

Was anyone killed in the collapse?

nwood

03-03-2009, 09:53 AM

As far as I was aware they were still touting their perfect record

Xerof

03-03-2009, 09:59 AM

Was anyone killed in the collapse?

Only the shareholders.....:cool::cool:

If what Peter says is all the facts, I cannot believe they would tap shareholders for more equity to fund a short term liquidity gap.....if its a rights issue, there's more to it.......and it is likely to implicate the Liberty bonds

nwood

03-03-2009, 10:07 AM

Pike River Coal Announces NZ$45 Million Rights Issue and Placement

Pike River Coal Limited today announced it will raise NZ$45 million through an issue of
ordinary shares, with accompanying bonus options, to provide funds until steady state
production from hydro monitor mining is achieved.

The $45 million raising includes a $41 million renounceable pro rata rights issue to
shareholders and a $4 million placement to a major institutional shareholder. The rights
issue offer and placement will be one new share and one bonus option for consideration of
NZ$0.70, for every 5 Pike River shares (note1). The company is currently completing
negotiations for the underwriting of the issue.

The decision to raise cash at this time follows a rock fall from the lower section of the
new 108-metre ventilation shaft temporarily halting mining operations until remedied.
The rock fall has delayed the production ramp-up period by two to three months and
delayed first coal sales proceeds to the third quarter of 2009 (ended 30 September).
First hydro monitor production (the high pressure water cutting system) is now scheduled
for the fourth quarter of 2009 (ended 31 December).

As a consequence Pike River Coal has been required to fund the final capital expenditure
payments, largely for hydro-mining equipment, from a new equity issue instead of first
coal sales proceeds. The issue will also provide some working capital and cover the
estimated $7million cost to remedy the shaft, a portion of which may yet be covered by
insurance.

â€œDemand for the ultra low ash premium hard coking coal from Pike River Coalâ€™s estimated
58 million tonne resource remains strong notwithstanding the difficult world economic
conditionsâ€œ Mr Ward says.

â€œWe are seeking to mitigate the effects of the delay and will be meeting with our steel
mill and coking plant customers shortly to appraise them of the status at the mine and to
discuss the shipment schedulesâ€.

Mr Ward said â€œThe rights issue is being attractively priced for our shareholders who have
shown strong support as the mine progressed through the development phaseâ€. The companyâ€™s
principal shareholder, New Zealand Oil & Gas Limited (NZOG), has committed to take up its
30 per cent pro rata share of the new shares issued.

Lead Manager for the issue is McDouall Stuart Securities Limited. Final confirmation of
the underwriting commitments is subject to completion of negotiations with selected
sub-underwriters. The terms of the placement (which are the same as the terms of the
rights issue) are subject to approval of NZX. Subject to receipt of those commitments
and approvals, it is intended that the offer will be fully committed/underwritten.

A Prospectus for the rights issue and an accompanying entitlement and acceptance form is
expected to be mailed to shareholders on or about 25 March 2009* and will be available to
view online at www.pike.co.nz. The Offer is expected to open on 25 March 2009 and close
on 14 April 2009.

Australian coal producers have commenced negotiations for the benchmark price for hard
coking coal supplied to Japanese steel mills from 1 April 2009. Market observers are
tipping hard coking coal prices in the range of US$130 to $140 per tonne, well above the
US$95 per tonne estimated at the time of the Companyâ€™s Initial Public Offering (IPO) in
mid-2007. The fall in the value of the New Zealand dollar exchange rate relative to the
United States dollar by approximately 30 per cent since the IPO will boost New Zealand
dollar revenues.

Renounceable Rights Issue Summary (Indicative)

Offer One new share and one bonus option for every 5 shares held as at 24 March 2009
(see note 1)
Subscription price $0.70 per share
Maximum number of new shares to be issued 58,571,429
Maximum number of shares on issue at completion of offer 352,323,610

Maximum number of new options to be issued 58,571,429
Intended Record date 24 March 2009
Indicative date for tights trading on ASX commences 18 March 2009
Indicative opening date of offer opens (note 2) 25 March 2009
Indicative rights trading on NZX commences 25 March 2009
Indicative rights trading on ASX ceases 3 April 2009
Indicative rights trading on NZX ceases 8 April 2009
Indicative closing date of the offer 14 April 2009
Indicative allotment date 21 April 2009

Notes
1 Rounded from actual entitlement ratio of 1 Right for every 5.01581192 shares held
2 These dates are subject to change and are indicative only. Pike River reserves the
right to amend this timetable without prior written notice, subject to the respective
Listing Rules of the NZSX and the ASX and relevant legislation, although an announcement
of any changes will be made on the NZSX and the ASX. A full copy of the timetable will
appear in the Prospectus.
3 No money is currently being sought and no applications for securities will be accepted
for money received unless the subscriber has received an investment statement in relation
to the offer.

Sehnsucht888

03-03-2009, 10:17 AM

So there is a dealy, and they need more cash short term. But the coal will still be getting 50 to 100% more NZD$ than expected in the propspectus... So how long does it take to make back the extra costs?

boysy

03-03-2009, 10:19 AM

the fact of the matter is this couldnt of been announced on a worse day me thinks prc will likely get hammered. I believe this is just the start of the problems for prc.

blockhead

03-03-2009, 10:26 AM

mmmn 1:5 @ 70c and an option tossed in gratis, long term and barring disaster or rock overhangs the option should be worth more than 70c come the end of this year, could look at it as a loan to PRC with the chance of good upside but of course unforseen downside also possible.

State of play not too much different from when rock collapse first occured really

Hoop

03-03-2009, 10:27 AM

Time to find my calculator...there is one on my desk somewhere.

deduction:...messy desk

geezy

03-03-2009, 03:53 PM

not very good news, but compared to whats happening outside of NZ, AIG USD62b, what is this short term cash injection?

Hope its smooth sailing from here on

DISC: Hold PRC

the machine

03-03-2009, 11:59 PM

Placebo

04-03-2009, 11:31 AM

given present market conditions then one can expect the partail nzo underwriting will be fully used - thus nzo will end up being a larger shareholder than previously expwected.

a couple of year down the track this situation with nzo increasing shareholding through underwriting should prove very profitable fopr nzo.

they are buying back some percentage of the shareholding they sold out for with the IPO at a much reduced price.

M

...there's an awful lot of assumptions in that post...

There has always been a significant degree of blinkered optimism in this thread. I wonder how bad the news has to get before people desert?

Disc: Holding!! :eek: :eek: :eek:

fabs

04-03-2009, 01:12 PM

Placebo,
do You know for a fact, or assume that [The Machines] statements are not possible to take place?
And prey tell, where are they going to desert to if things get a lot worse?

Wiremu

04-03-2009, 04:09 PM

Fab,

Two problems with the machines posting.

First, NZOG didn't sell any shares into the IPO (nor did anyone else) - all of the captal raised went into Pike River.

Second, the Takeovers Code seriously restricts anyone holding an interest of more than 20% from increasing their percentage holding whether that be from underwrites or any other way.

RossT

04-03-2009, 04:17 PM

$7 million needed to fix the $5 million shaft? Now thats logical. Whole new shaft perhaps..?.. Who knows.

croesus

04-03-2009, 04:52 PM

Its because we are between a rock and a hard place.. we are being shafted by the drilling contractor....

Balance

04-03-2009, 06:55 PM

...there's an awful lot of assumptions in that post...

There has always been a significant degree of blinkered optimism in this thread. I wonder how bad the news has to get before people desert?

Disc: Holding!! :eek: :eek: :eek:

Mining stocks are all about blue-skies, blinkered optimism, ramping and holding to the bitter end?

In the end, PRC will be good for NZ and NZ economy. We need to develop our natural resources and it's great that there are such enthusiastic backing (blinkered or not) around to fund the projects. Just not sure whether PRC will be good for shareholders!

Rabbi

05-03-2009, 08:33 AM

There was always something bound to go wrong with the mine and in this case it is the ventillation shaft. If....

they hadn't taken so long on the stone drive they would have had a bit of time up their sleeve, which would have mitigated the time lost before they could ramp up production.

Unfortunately, time was against them and- as always- time is money.:mad:

dayz

05-03-2009, 10:26 AM

RossT

05-03-2009, 11:16 AM

Have PRC any explaination why the 1st shaft was not adequately stabilised apart from 'it was too difficult to do'. Pretty pathetic excuse, it has cost shareholders $45m, there should be a few more questions about that. Also what are they going to do with the next shaft to ensure that it doesn't collapse as well ?
dayz

Yeah some more specifics on the shaft would be good. Back in previous posts when everyone was so concerned about "the faultline" in the tunnel, I explained that this shaft was far more of a difficult task than tunnelling thru that fault ever would have been. Still, i didn't quite think it would come to this tho...

Still, imagine if the poor buggers meshing and bolting the shaft were hanging down at that level when the thing let go....fatalities for sure.
Even bolted, its still a toss up wether it would have held.

I'd definitely like some drawings of the damaged zone and details on the planned fix.

Xerof

05-03-2009, 11:19 AM

dayz, why don't you bother to read the announcement before you make such an uninformed maiden speech....

blockhead

05-03-2009, 11:19 AM

dayz, why don't you bother to read the announcement before you make such an uninformed maiden speech....

You beat me by a minute Xerof

Placebo

05-03-2009, 12:21 PM

Placebo,
do You know for a fact, or assume that [The Machines] statements are not possible to take place?
And prey tell, where are they going to desert to if things get a lot worse?

Fabs, Wiremu has responded on a separate point but what I was really driving at was the assumption that PRC's shares will in the future be worth more than they are now, and therefore will be of benefit to NZO (or anyone!) buying in now.

As a holder, this is not a happy space to be in! But seems realistic for the time being anyway. This is now looking a much riskier investment.

geezy

06-03-2009, 04:35 PM

great risks, great returns :)

Balance

06-03-2009, 05:34 PM

great risks, great returns :)

True. So true for those who bought at over $2.00 and are now not only sitting on a huge loss but now have to fork out more money with no certainty that the delays will not keep coming. Remember that the first coal was supposed to come out in July 2008 (yes, 2008 - not 2009).

Still, great for NZ. PRC and NZ are lucky to have such die-hard supporters in PRC. Bravo!

Nitaa

06-03-2009, 07:21 PM

True. So true for those who bought at over $2.00 and are now not only sitting on a huge loss but now have to fork out more money with no certainty that the delays will not keep coming. Remember that the first coal was supposed to come out in July 2008 (yes, 2008 - not 2009).

Still, great for NZ. PRC and NZ are lucky to have such die-hard supporters in PRC. Bravo!
There are some smart/lucky investors who bought in at ipo and more than doubled their money. Some win some/lose some

the machine

07-03-2009, 12:35 AM

with tropical cyclone hamish heading down the queensland coast then will be interesting to see what happens over the weekend re any possible flooding of coal mines.

would be incredible if there is severe impact just prior to setting annual coking coal prices.

M

Balance

07-03-2009, 08:52 AM

There are some smart/lucky investors who bought in at ipo and more than doubled their money. Some win some/lose some

Yes. How many sold out when it doubled? What we know is that all in PRC now are way out of the money with more money required from them? Ask the folks at OZL Minerals or Murchison Iron.

geezy

07-03-2009, 02:58 PM

The delays are truly frustrating and still further delays are also killing me. Mind you they have worked on this for 8-9 years, I dont think a rock fall will stop them now. Not really a die hard supporter, but just thinking positive :)

If there was another IPO for a mine in NZ, i guess i will buy into it too :P

Rob Anybody

07-03-2009, 03:46 PM

Local gossip says that two senior members of the management team have left since Christmas. Coincidence?

SENZ's Spring Creek mine, only a few kms from PRC, is supposed to be an 800,000 tonnes/year mine also using hydro techniques and in the same coal seam and general geological conditions. But they've always struggled to achieve that.

Personally I beleive that PRCL have come too far and invested too much to just walk away from it all. But there were rumours that they might put the mine onto a care and maintenence program, i.e. no mining activity = no production. But that means spending money without any immediate prospect of income.

digger

07-03-2009, 04:48 PM

Yes. How many sold out when it doubled? What we know is that all in PRC now are way out of the money with more money required from them? Ask the folks at OZL Minerals or Murchison Iron.

Actually balance i did. Sold at 207 but can you believe it ,it was with a heavy heart.I needed the money to finance conversion os NZOOD to head shares. At the time i believed that all in all NZO was the better and more stable investment. In hindsight it turned out very well but mostly now put it down to luck as at the time i had no belief that the world economy would tank like it did. The rock fall is always on the cards with mining but for the HCC price to drop from 300 to 100 is unreal.
Now just a world on NZO underwriting the PRC cash issue. That in time could be a real winner. If there ever was a buy in gloom scenario it would have to be this one. Also watch the options once they come on market.They could present a very interesting investment for the not so faint at heart.
Digger.

Xerof

08-03-2009, 03:23 PM

If there ever was a buy in gloom scenario it would have to be this one

As much as my heart agrees with your sentiments Digger, I suspect if we had Phaedrus post a chart of PRC, we'd find it's well and truely in a downtrend still, probably with all his indicators showing no signs of life at all.

Phaedrus, could you oblige?

Balance

08-03-2009, 03:43 PM

Actually balance i did. Sold at 207 but can you believe it ,it was with a heavy heart.I needed the money to finance conversion os NZOOD to head shares. At the time i believed that all in all NZO was the better and more stable investment. In hindsight it turned out very well but mostly now put it down to luck as at the time i had no belief that the world economy would tank like it did. The rock fall is always on the cards with mining but for the HCC price to drop from 300 to 100 is unreal.
Now just a world on NZO underwriting the PRC cash issue. That in time could be a real winner. If there ever was a buy in gloom scenario it would have to be this one. Also watch the options once they come on market.They could present a very interesting investment for the not so faint at heart.
Digger.

Good on you Digger. Pity the top shareholders' list shows that most of the others actually increased their shareholdings from a year ago rather than reduced. And they will now get another opportunity to increase their commitment to PRC.