PRC Pike River Coal

[rotweiller]

Had a reccy at Ikamatua on the way to 5 great days at Okarito.
Could not get very close to the loadout facility due to electronic gates; fences etc but was patently obvious that no coal has been transported to the facility at this point of time, that I could determine.
Looked all set to go though.
Cheers

[glennj]

Yes that seemed to be the case when I had a nosey on Sunday.
Pub talk a few weeks back from some of the workers was that revised targets may be optimistic. Some of the past gossip from such sources has been eeriely accurate.
IMHO the share price is suffering because senior management have over hyped and under delivered.
Really hope they get the full shipment away on time!
(I've still got some shares but quit some at $2.48 a while back)

[Casa del Energia]

Yes that seemed to be the case when I had a nosey on Sunday.
Pub talk a few weeks back from some of the workers was that revised targets may be optimistic. Some of the past gossip from such sources has been eeriely accurate.
IMHO the share price is suffering because senior management have over hyped and under delivered.
Really hope they get the full shipment away on time!
(I've still got some shares but quit some at $2.48 a while back)

Thanks G & rott for the eyewitness stuff, always good to have on the ground intel.

And - a little perversly, under target is good news --- am still too light on PRC and dont want to sp to take off before I've finished filling my grain stores with it. (Fundamentalist, long termer here. TA is too much black magic and voodoo)

[Balance]

Thanks G & rott for the eyewitness stuff, always good to have on the ground intel.

And - a little perversly, under target is good news --- am still too light on PRC and dont want to sp to take off before I've finished filling my grain stores with it. (Fundamentalist, long termer here. TA is too much black magic and voodoo)

Delays sfter delays, capex blow-outs - you have had plenty of opportunities to fill up your grain store!

[Casa del Energia]

Delays sfter delays, capex blow-outs - you have had plenty of opportunities to fill up your grain store!

Thanks for the encouraging words. Sometimes I get a little depressed that this recession is spluttering out too soon. And it's true that the opportunities were wide open - the shaft collapse was a God send, picked PRC up at 90c (I think) - but not being a trader and being a person that reckons that bank deposits are a waste of time - I am always dead broke and it takes time to sledge hammer open all my 'piggy banks'.

Think of a lolly scramble - you can only do so much with only two hands.

[Billy Boy]

Thanks for the encouraging words. Sometimes I get a little depressed that this recession is spluttering out too soon. And it's true that the opportunities were wide open - the shaft collapse was a God send, picked PRC up at 90c (I think) - but not being a trader and being a person that reckons that bank deposits are a waste of time - I am always dead broke and it takes time to sledge hammer open all my 'piggy banks'.

Think of a lolly scramble - you can only do so much with only two hands.

Buy the options old son.... they are bloody cheap @24.5.
And that will give you time to scratch up more dosh :)
cheers BB :)
PS Banks & Managed funds are just "Rat Sh*t"

[Dr_Who]

It is good to flush out all the traders and non believers in this stock and replace them with long term investors. It doesnt matter if NZers dont want it, it will go to overseas investors if it stay cheap for too long.

With every constructions, be it a property or a mine it is certain to have delays and teething problems. Very rare that one encounters a substantial project of size that have no delays.

The fundamentals for commodities and the steel sector are looking very good. Just take a good look at China and the Iron ore sector to know that coking coal will benefit from it.

[Casa del Energia]

Buy the options old son.... they are bloody cheap @24.5.
And that will give you time to scratch up more dosh :)
cheers BB :)
PS Banks & Managed funds are just "Rat Sh*t"

Options? !! Of course! What a fool I am. Every so often, I get that 'stupid' feeling because I miss something so blatantly obvious that a ganglion challenged cockroach could spot.
Gods teeth - I shouldn't be allowed near equities if I couldn't figure that out myself.

" Man will occasionally stumble over the truth, but most of the time he will pick himself up and continue on." - Winston Churchill

[Balance]

It is good to flush out all the traders and non believers in this stock and replace them with long term investors. It doesnt matter if NZers dont want it, it will go to overseas investors if it stay cheap for too long.

With every constructions, be it a property or a mine it is certain to have delays and teething problems. Very rare that one encounters a substantial project of size that have no delays.

The fundamentals for commodities and the steel sector are very looking good. Just take a good look at China and the Iron ore sector to know that coking coal will benefit from it.

I agree with you on China and coking coal. I think you may be picking the wrong horse to back with PRC - the Oz miners have taken off and PRC is stagnant. Why?

Delays after delays after delays can be indications of deep underlying problems with the mine, management and with the planning. If the Southland quake had hit PRC area, you can kiss your money goodbye - no such risk with Oz mines.

[JoeBlogs]

I agree Balance, but my philosophy is that you don't get rich backing favourites. Yes, PRC has more inherent risk than established Aussie mines, but does the discount to its share price fairly reflect that? I believe there is substantial value to be realised here.

I must admit I am partially hedged at the moment though.

[friedegg]

prc is like the old nzo,crap luck,untimely reporting etc,and they also have options!! just dont get too greedy with the profit you will make on the options as i did with nzo or nog at the time

[Dr_Who]

I agree with you on China and coking coal. I think you may be picking the wrong horse to back with PRC - the Oz miners have taken off and PRC is stagnant. Why?

Delays after delays after delays can be indications of deep underlying problems with the mine, management and with the planning. If the Southland quake had hit PRC area, you can kiss your money goodbye - no such risk with Oz mines.

I am a value investor and seek out undervalued stocks that the market dislike and I buy and hold it till it comes to be loved again. They will start to love PRC again and Nov is not too far away.

Dont get me wrong, I think Aussie have some great coal stocks, I know cos I have a fair number of Aussie commodity stocks in my portfolio that is doing very well... IRN, PAN, KZL, OZL, WHC etc. There are also risks with Aussie mine with an example in 2006 flooding that caused the start of the coal price to hit $300.

PRC is one of those stocks that are going through growing pains that the maket have forgotten, for now. It will be loved again and when it does I will enjoy the appreciation. :)

"So close, yet so far"

Pike River Coal delays first shipment; confidence deadline will be met

http://www.odt.co.nz/news/business/67841/pike-river-coal-delays-first-shipment-confidence-deadline-will-be-met

[kizame]

Options? !! Of course! What a fool I am. Every so often, I get that 'stupid' feeling because I miss something so blatantly obvious that a ganglion challenged cockroach could spot.
Gods teeth - I shouldn't be allowed near equities if I couldn't figure that out myself.

" Man will occasionally stumble over the truth, but most of the time he will pick himself up and continue on." - Winston Churchill

Haha know exactly where you are coming from I am the same,blind sometimes.

I think hold on to your seats as this is coming out of a symmetrical triangle pattern and I have a price target of 1.61 on this.There are a lot of the same patterns like this in the market at the moment.

Ask Pheadras.

[Dr_Who]

Kaboom!

$1.15 bid.

Hows the chart looking now?

[Dr_Who]

:eek::eek::eek:

Anyone know whats up with PRC?

Something is up, sp on PRC and PRCOA both very strong today.
:):)

[Xerof]

TA -
price action is playing into the apex of the Symmetrical Triangle, with less and less volatility.

So, one would expect a breakout next week, and as Ph says 64% chance of this being to the topside

Happening.....

FA - general rise in commodities across the board, so not entirely unexpected for PRC to be lifting on that tide

[JoeBlogs]

Yeah, looks like the technicals are driving this one. Next leg in the up-trend I would think. Look for a close in the high 120s to confirm.

Stocks only remain undervalued for so long. Very happy to have loaded up on the OAs as well as the heads during the recent sluggish patch.

[Billy Boy]

Watch for the Coorprates to start showing some real interest.
I think the traders are puching this....
Late Friday will tell.
BB

[_ccg_]

I am new to share investing, and am developing my own portfolio. I would like to place a resource based stock in my portfolio for medium term investment, I have done a little research on PRC and feel they have potential. but i dont really know as I dont really have any figures to work with. Any one have any comments or help me with this so I can make a more informed decision. Thanks in advance

[MPC]

ccg,

A lot depends on your risk profile. Do you mind a loss in value or will this discourage you?
If you are looking at medium term the small fluctuations don't matter that much, look at the bigger picture. In my opinion PRC has a great future but they need to overcome all the obstacles and actually get the coal out of the ground and out of the country. When to enter is the question and as with all shares when to exit is the big call.
PRC might never be this cheap again though.

A lot of people will suggest watching and learning and having a pretend portfolio but I feel you need to study, find some shares you like, jump in and have a go. Its only money.
And... know how much you can lose and don't get in over your head.
Have alook at Aussie shares once you are into it, much more fun and potential over there.

Have fun,
Cheers,
MPC
Disclosure, I like PRC and have since they were first talked about then listed. Waiting patiently

[bob.not.a.builder]

I am very confident in PRC. No coal has been sent yet so there is still some more left in it plus alot more then shipments really get started.

[zorba]

.

Check this out ...... Nerver mind China, coal prices will also be supported by demand from India.

I see Gujarat is mentioned in the article ...... they of course already have a useful stake in the Pike mine. And I'm sure there will be other Indian companies also bidding for Pikes high quality coking coal.

Now they just have to get those high pressure water cannons all fired up and blasting the coal into the slurry pipe down to the rail head and then off to Lyttleton for the first 60,000 tonne shipment !!

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/business/story/0,28124,25850046-16222,00.html

[digger]

.

Check this out ...... Nerver mind China, coal prices will also be supported by demand from India.

I see Gujarat is mentioned in the article ...... they of course already have a useful stake in the Pike mine. And I'm sure there will be other Indian companies also bidding for Pikes high quality coking coal.

Now they just have to get those high pressure water cannons all fired up and blasting the coal into the slurry pipe down to the rail head and then off to Lyttleton for the first 60,000 tonne shipment !!

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/business/story/0,28124,25850046-16222,00.html

Thanks for that Zorba. I now have only a small direct holding in PRC but more through NZO.
Do you get the feeling that if PIKE produces very little between now and end of March 10 it will be not so bad. In that period all is sold at only 128 if memory is correct but after that it is renegoiated. So i am hoping by April 10 we have all the teething problems behind us and are away.
Cheers

[elZorro]

Just my 2c worth re delays: about a year ago I was on a plane beside a supplier/engineer who had just been to the PRC mine in a business capacity. When I mentioned I was thinking about buying some PRC shares, he suggested I wait a bit, because PRC were having some trouble punching a hole through. To keep to the timeframe they had elected to run a smaller tunnel (or something to that effect, maybe 1 tunnel instead of 2). But it also meant that to get any major product out, more digging/delay would be required.

I still don't have any of these shares. Would now be a good time? (Loaded question).

[Rabbi]

Just my 2c worth re delays: about a year ago I was on a plane beside a supplier/engineer who had just been to the PRC mine in a business capacity. When I mentioned I was thinking about buying some PRC shares, he suggested I wait a bit, because PRC were having some trouble punching a hole through. To keep to the timeframe they had elected to run a smaller tunnel (or something to that effect, maybe 1 tunnel instead of 2). But it also meant that to get any major product out, more digging/delay would be required.

I still don't have any of these shares. Would now be a good time? (Loaded question).

A coal mine is NEVER (universal quantifier) completely derisked.

To answer your question, I would wait until the SP is in a definite upturn.

One of our TA posters could possibly tell you what they consider the "breakout" price might be. :cool:

[blockhead]

Just my 2c worth re delays: about a year ago I was on a plane beside a supplier/engineer who had just been to the PRC mine in a business capacity. When I mentioned I was thinking about buying some PRC shares, he suggested I wait a bit, because PRC were having some trouble punching a hole through. To keep to the timeframe they had elected to run a smaller tunnel (or something to that effect, maybe 1 tunnel instead of 2). But it also meant that to get any major product out, more digging/delay would be required.

I still don't have any of these shares. Would now be a good time? (Loaded question).

The danger of tittle tattle eh ?? It would sound to me like your flight friend was referring to the ventilation shaft, it is well documented there was a collapse in the initial shaft and a smaller shaft was run until modification to the original shaft was completed. That is all done and dusted now and I presume it is onwards and upwards with getting coal out.

[Phaedrus]

I still don't have any of these shares. Would now be a good time to buy?. The time to buy PRC was when it broke above the 10 month trendline and the OBV began to rise. (Dark green arrows). The next buying opportunity was when PRC broke above its Symmetrical Triangle and the OBV resumed rising again. (Light green arrows). Would now be a good time to buy? Yes, but the risk is of course somewhat higher now.


One of our TA posters could possibly tell you what they consider the "breakout" price might be.The breakout you would have been watching for here was from the Symmetrical Triangle formation. This happened over a week ago. We should not be surprised that it was an upward breakout because the odds were 64:36 in favour of this. This was a slightly unusual example of a symmetrical triangle in that it ran all the way to the end, right to the apex of the triangle. Most of these formations break out around 80% of the way to the apex.

http://h1.ripway.com/78963/PRC86.gif

PRC has been a very disappointing share for "buy and hold" investors. For "active" investors (if you call 1 trade a year active!) returns have been excellent.

[peat]

Most of these formations break out around 80% of the way to the apex.
my understanding is that when they complete the whole triangle they are less reliable, in that they are more likely to give a false breakout.

[Dr_Who]

I know nothing about triangles, graphs, TA etc. What I know is that I bought more PRC at $1.12 when the valuation is $1.50-$2.00.

[elZorro]

Dr_Who: I know nothing about triangles, graphs, TA etc. What I know is that I bought more PRC at $1.12 when the valuation is $1.50-$2.00.

Many thanks for the input above from everybody. I see from trading today that it's not hard to move PRC shares, there are some big players involved. I have to agree with Dr Who, most times I try and pick a share's direction I seem to get it wrong, and I've been trying that for a year or two. If that valuation is fairly sound, then I'm happy to invest.

[Placebo]

I think I probably bought in around about where Phaedrus' `sell' arrows are, and sold where his `buy' ones are. That would make me the ultimate contrarion, no? :D

One trade a year suits my investing style so PRC has been a very good performer from that point of view. Now the trick is to actually make some money from it. ;)

[dartMonkey]

I got in at 1.15 on Monday.
Volume increasing for 2 weeks before.
Bollinger bands squeezed awfully tight.
Wondering if the triangle is the end of a high tight flag.
Caution for me is the option price and I wonder if investors/traders will hesitate to go past it.

[Phaedrus]

I know nothing about TA. What I know is that I bought more PRC at $1.12 when the valuation is $1.50-$2.00.That certainly sounds like a safe approach, doesn't it Doc? BUT IT'S NOT!

There were people buying PRC at $1.80 when the "valuation" was $2.75 - $3.87.

These buyers also knew nothing about TA!

[Placebo]

That certainly sounds like a safe approach, doesn't it Doc? BUT IT'S NOT!

There were people buying PRC at $1.80 when the "valuation" was $2.75 - $3.87.

These buyers also knew nothing about TA!

The valuation is lovely but utterly meaningless. Wouldn't you like to think that one day, Mr Market will wake up and say `whoops, I've under-rated PRC, up you go to $1.80'? That day may come - but FA can't tell you when. The figure is pie in the sky.

In the meantime, if you look around there are other better performing stocks. What is the opportunity cost of holding and expecting that "value" to be realised?

Edited to add: Oops I have referenced the wrong quote - `you' is directed at Dr Who, not Phaedrus! :eek:

[Dr_Who]

Here comes the Chinese. If PRC stays cheap for too long, it too can be eaten by the big boys?


Felix Resources agrees $3bn takeover from China's Yanzhou Coal

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/business/story/0,28124,25908357-5005200,00.html

[Xerof]

You forget that the Indians have long term supply contracts in place for the vast majority of PRC's output.

I wouldn't be circling the wagons in the hope the Chinese come knocking - the Indians already have us surrounded :D:D

[Billy Boy]

You forget that the Indians have long term supply contracts in place for the vast majority of PRC's output.

I wouldn't be circling the wagons in the hope the Chinese come knocking - the Indians already have us surrounded :D:D

HIG-ZAL-ALLY
Xerof.... good post.
When Pike get's going... The going will go after Pike.
WHY.... Coz
No big shipping hangup's Like New castle (80 Ships waiting ) etc
Into Lytt... load and go.... A big cost that has not been talked
about is over heads !!! & waiting time
At the end of the day, ... Mine to consumer cost !!!
Hullo.....
BB:)
PS Think people think... ?? !!

[Dr_Who]

You forget that the Indians have long term supply contracts in place for the vast majority of PRC's output.

I wouldn't be circling the wagons in the hope the Chinese come knocking - the Indians already have us surrounded :D:D

Maybe the Indians will follow the Chinese lead and start buying up assets? :D

[bermuda]

HIG-ZAL-ALLY
Xerof.... good post.
When Pike get's going... The going will go after Pike.
WHY.... Coz
No big shipping hangup's Like New castle (80 Ships waiting ) etc
Into Lytt... load and go.... A big cost that has not been talked
about is over heads !!! & waiting time
At the end of the day, ... Mine to consumer cost !!!
Hullo.....
BB:)
PS Think people think... ?? !!

BB,
You are so right about Newcastle. What a pain. Lyttelton will be so attractive. Shippers hate demurrage like the plague. Far, far easier just to pull achour and go and get that world class coking coal from Lyttelton.

I am expecting PRC to outperform. ( had a quick chat with Peter Whittall at the airport today. He was just back from a London Insurance meeting. Everythings fine, albeit a bit slow. He has been here five years. This was a fantastic appointment for NZO to have made.)

Once a few reliable shipments get exported. Watch out. PRC goes north.
Do not hold.

I expect PRC to outperform.

[freddy]

BB,
You are so right about Newcastle. What a pain. Lyttelton will be so attractive. Shippers hate demurrage like the plague. Far, far easier just to pull achour and go and get that world class coking coal from Lyttelton.

.

Well that might be true if Newcastle coal was coking coal like Pike and not thermal /semisoft but it ain't. No buyer will buy from Lyttelton instead of Newcastle.

[zorba]

Freddy .......

Cant understand your comment ..... it does not stand up to any reasonable analysis.

What gives .... maybe too much after din dins carb sav ?

Z

[Billy Boy]

Well that might be true if Newcastle coal was coking coal like Pike and not thermal /semisoft but it ain't. No buyer will buy from Lyttelton instead of Newcastle.

Then how does Coking coal get out of Ozz ??
BB:)

[bermuda]

Then how does Coking coal get out of Ozz ??
BB:)

To be fair to Freddy ,Newcastle is a major thermal coal export terminal. But the point I was trying to make is that there are queues of ships waiting to load coking coal ex Australia. In fact the major producers, Xtrata, BHP etc are working with the Govt to expand Darlrymple by 2013. Lyttelton, plus the superb coking coal it exports, will gain favour.

In the meantime the coking coal market is on the way up.

"A major turn-up for the coal market has been China becoming a net importer, rather than exporter.This has been a surprise to the industry, which was expecting hard times due to much reduced demand coming out of Japan and Korea.

In June, China imported 3.15 million tons of Australian coking coal which was up from 1.13 million tons in May, and just 0.13 million tons in December.There are also signs that Japan and Korea are returning to the market"

PRC, set to outperform.

[Dr_Who]

I ve trying to tell this to everyone a few post back.

PRC is under valued compared to other Aussie coal miners. Ok they may have some teething problems and delays in tunneling, but that is expected with all major construction projects. Those that are familiar with construction knows to expect delays and teething problems in any project of this size.

I put my money where my mouth is and had bought more shares when it was $1.12 last week.

[Billy Boy]

To be fair to Freddy , etc..
Bermuda, Yep I took your point.
I was not trying to be sarcastic to Ferddy (Sorrys to Freddy ),
I suddenly though, reading his post, does this guy know something
I dont ?? .
Goss from the mine.... Things will be up and running big time by
mid November. Although goss only at this stage, its better hearing
the positives than the negatives..
cheers to all
BB :)

[Bilo]

Goss from the mine.... Things will be up and running big time by
mid November. Although goss only at this stage, its better hearing
the positives than the negatives..
cheers to all
BB :)[/quote]


Such a dearth of information we had almost lost the thread.

In the quarterly report 21st July: "the first full test run for loading export coal at the Ikamatua rail loadout facility will be in the next month." August 21 or 31??? or done already and just too lazy to say anything...

Just 90 days left to ship 60,000 tonnes. How much does each train pull over the mountains?

[gbeenz]

Each wagon carries approx 50 tonnes so the capacity of a 30 wagon trainset is approx 1500 tonnes - for 60,000 tonnes that makes it 40 train loads

[Rabbi]

My worry is they have to get the stuff out using continuous miner and Roadheader as the hydro gear has still not been commissioned.

I agree, no information is bad news.:confused:

[Bilo]

My worry is they have to get the stuff out using continuous miner and Roadheader as the hydro gear has still not been commissioned.

I agree, no information is bad news.:confused:
Not a worry for me, but the pipeline commissioning was. The hydro gear was never going to be commissioned for the first shipment but the slurry pipeline has been:


"Meanwhile the pit bottom infrastructure has been completed, with the 10-kilometre coal slurry
pipeline now carrying all crushed coal – previously being taken out by truck - from the pit bottom
to the coal preparation plant.
The coal slurry and flume pumps have been commissioned, the coal crusher and coal flumes
tested, electrical installations completed, and the first full test run for loading export coal at the
Ikamatua rail loadout facility will be in the next month.":)

[Dr_Who]

All commodities in Aussie are getting a hit today.

[Aotea]

Word on the street is that quite a chunk of the PRC workforce is to be laid off...nothing verified as yet, but my contacts have suggested it doesnt look good. On the other hand, you can never trust the press can you?

[friedegg]

Word on the street is that quite a chunk of the PRC workforce is to be laid off...nothing verified as yet, but my contacts have suggested it doesnt look good. On the other hand, you can never trust the press can you?
is that workers who were building up the facilities or workers needed in production?

[Aotea]

Im not 100% sure sorry.. Ive worked in the mining industry from a regional council perspective. a mate still there told me today its not looking good, he has 10,000 prc and is nervous he said after having a chat with the press...its a convoluted story though it has to be noted.

holding: lmp, hgd, syft, esi, clv, hfa, kas, tex.

[Odd Fellow]

<< Im not 100% sure sorry.. Ive worked in the mining industry from a regional council perspective. a mate still there told me today its not looking good, he has 10,000 prc and is nervous he said after having a chat with the press...its a convoluted story though it has to be noted.>>>


But they still have to deliver 60000 tonne of coal in November,
or they have to pay a hefty penalty.

[the machine]

Im not 100% sure sorry.. Ive worked in the mining industry from a regional council perspective. a mate still there told me today its not looking good, he has 10,000 prc and is nervous he said after having a chat with the press...its a convoluted story though it has to be noted.

holding: lmp, hgd, syft, esi, clv, hfa, kas, tex.


Aotea, would not worry about this to much as production workforce was being trained up.
If its "press talk" then that is all it is.

PRC have a duty of disclosure if something happens- good or bad.

See you also hold kas - well done

M

[mccollr]

I have five mates working there and one just started last week. They are still hiring experienced miners. When the Ohai underground mines closed a lot of the young experienced workers went to Australia. The older miners are seeing PRC as a good way to stay in the industry.


Rod
Nightcaps

[blockhead]

Word on the street is that quite a chunk of the PRC workforce is to be laid off...nothing verified as yet, but my contacts have suggested it doesnt look good. On the other hand, you can never trust the press can you?

Aotea, this is a very dangerous post you have made with no information to back up your claims.
In my view you should delete the post unless you find info to back your claims, as a new poster you could easily be considered to have reasons to be trying to depress the sp.

[Mr Tommy]

Aotea, this is a very dangerous post you have made with no information to back up your claims.
In my view you should delete the post unless you find info to back your claims, as a new poster you could easily be considered to have reasons to be trying to depress the sp.

Remember just a couple of weeks ago ElZorro was telling us he had 'heard from someone' they were having to drill another tunnel.
Now they are laying off staff according to Aotea

Youve got to take anything you read here with a grain of salt. Especially from new posters like Aotea. Could be just sniper/cludnine/notie at it again.

[brucey09]

Senors
Maybe EL Sniper ees back

[Hoop]

Remember just a couple of weeks ago ElZorro was telling us he had 'heard from someone' they were having to drill another tunnel.
Now they are laying off staff according to Aotea

Youve got to take anything you read here with a grain of salt. Especially from new posters like Aotea. Could be just sniper/cludnine/notie at it again.

Youve got to take anything you read here with a grain of salt.......
A rather broad word "anything"...There are some excellent posts on ST and there are some really experienced Posters out there who donate their time to share their vast amount of expert Knowledge and Wisdom....it boils down to who to trust...
Personally ...A red flag warning on a post comes from a poster with very few posts to their name telling us something we don't know.

I think a good way to deter the stirrers is to turn their little green reputation square into a red one...and it stays red until they prove their point as being true....Use the "Hero or Zero" philosophy

[Casa del Energia]

Remember just a couple of weeks ago ElZorro was telling us he had 'heard from someone' they were having to drill another tunnel.
Now they are laying off staff according to Aotea

Youve got to take anything you read here with a grain of salt. Especially from new posters like Aotea. Could be just sniper/cludnine/notie at it again.

No problem. I doubt there is anything 'going on'. As I told you - it could be just that they've finished with their shot firers or whatever. At any rate - that coal is pretty good stuff and is becoming as rare as hens teeth. So if these rumours trash the sp - - well and good. I need more PRC anyway.

[Snow Leopard]

Senors
Maybe EL Sniper ees back

I believe that he has been back a long time, my friend.

regards
Paper Tiger

[elZorro]

I believe that he has been back a long time, my friend.

regards
Paper Tiger

Hi there, just to dispel any more rumours: I did speak to someone in the engineering industry on a plane,regarding my earlier post. It was quite a while ago, and as someone else posted, that ventilation tunnel issue is now resolved. Maybe I learnt something, that this is a forum that has quite a bit of weight, and you need to do your own homework before blathering on. Idle talk is easy when you don't have any of the shares.

I have observed ST on and off for a year or three, and only just started posting in June. Not sure who El Sniper is..I try to keep positive.

[blockhead]

I have observed ST on and off for a year or three, and only just started posting in June. Not sure who El Sniper is..I try to keep positive.


Sniper was a poster with a high disregard for what PRC were doing, he couldnt see the tunnel for the snails and rock overhangs

[Mr Tommy]

Hi elZorro
I thinks theres always a risk when someone posts what they heard in the pub or plane or whatever. Your post a few weeks back referred to the ventialtion shaft which had all been disclosed and fixed before your post.
Aotea has posted what he has supposedly heard, but who knows if its true or not, or if hes just being mischievous. Sniper was a poster long ago who got banned for doing this, but he reappears from time to time under new names.

[Dr_Who]

I dont think it matters what Aotea post in here.

If it is not true, then it is an opportunity to pick up some cheap stock. Whoever picked up some PRC at $1.14 yesterday must be a smart cookie.

But then if it turns out to be true, then PRC can go lower. Who knows, this market works in mysterious ways.

[Balance]

I dont think it matters what Aotea post in here.

If it is not true, then it is an opportunity to pick up some cheap stock. Whoever picked up some PRC at $1.14 yesterday must be a smart cookie.

But then if it turns out to be true, then PRC can go lower. Who knows, this market works in mysterious ways.

So is it true?

PRC sp seems to move ahead of price sensitive news being announced. The collapse of the ventilation shaft was known by some well before it was announced to the market. Sp was dropping before the announcement.

[Dr_Who]

So is it true?

PRC sp seems to move ahead of price sensitive news being announced. The collapse of the ventilation shaft was known by some well before it was announced to the market. Sp was dropping before the announcement.

I recall PRC sp went down to $1.12 follow by the announcement of a delayed delivery of coal. The sp didnt fall after the announcement cos the insiders have already helped us factor into the bad news. I would assume the insiders themselves got burnt by the sp going up after the announcement.

[Balance]

I recall PRC sp went down to $1.12 follow by the announcement of a delayed delivery of coal. The sp didnt fall after the announcement cos the insiders have already helped us factor into the bad news. I would assume the insiders themselves got burnt by the sp going up after the announcement.

Comes down to volume and sp movements?

Sp going up by 3 cents is not going to burn insiders!

Sp going down 33% burnt those who bought off insiders when ventilation shaft collapsed.

[Mr Tommy]

Hi all
I emailed Pike today, theres no foundation to Aoteas rumour, here is what they replied....

No there is nothing in any of that. I spent half my day today in
inductions with new employees and we have a whole bunch starting in
early September too. We are still very much going forward.

Regards

Peter Whittall

[Balance]

Hi all
I emailed Pike today, theres no foundation to Aoteas rumour, here is what they replied....

No there is nothing in any of that. I spent half my day today in
inductions with new employees and we have a whole bunch starting in
early September too. We are still very much going forward.

Regards

Peter Whittall

Good stuff! Aotea is now exposed - his sources are unreliable or he is a fraud.

[kizame]

Nothing wrong with trying to get the share price down for a wee while,whilst he loads up.
You should be flattered yet another wiley investor has seen the potential you obviously already have.

[zorba]

Good stuff! Aotea is now exposed - his sources are unreliable or he is a fraud.

Balance,

Totally agree with you ....... Aorta needs a heavy dose of colonic irrigation to purge himshelf of the total BS uttered from his keyboard and other parts of his anatomy.

Z

[Casa del Energia]

Hi all
I emailed Pike today, theres no foundation to Aoteas rumour, here is what they replied....

No there is nothing in any of that. I spent half my day today in
inductions with new employees and we have a whole bunch starting in
early September too. We are still very much going forward.

Regards

Peter Whittall

Excellent. You're a dab hand at spotting rot and rubbish. And took the time to prove it.

[pietrade]

Thanks for that Mr. T. There's nothing like a taste of the truth to cut thru the B...S...!

[glennj]

Any management steer on if they are going to get the shipment away in full and on time?

[Sehnsucht888]

Nothing wrong with trying to get the share price down for a wee while,whilst he loads up.
You should be flattered yet another wiley investor has seen the potential you obviously already have.

Maybe not in NZ - not sure on the rules here, but did read some stuf about market manipulation in Aus a while ago, and technically those kinds of comments could get you in strife I believe. Rumourtrage (however its spelt) is a no-no. Whether people get halled up on it or not is another question, but there isn't a huge amount of moderation on this site, unlike hotcopper where I think some people are lucky they get moderated. ASX tends to at least ask questions. Here in the wild wild west anything goes it seems.

Pike has had its problems. I hope it makes the nov target, but if it didn't it wouldn't be the end of the eath - barring a major catastrophy, as those that have helped it get this far, wouldn't walk away so near the end - it just wouldn't make sense.

[Balance]

SP down on a Big Up Day for the market.

I do not like the smell of this.

[Nitaa]

SP down on a Big Up Day for the market.

I do not like the smell of this.LOL. I along with you expect the sp to drop to 50 cps by this afternoon. something is definatety up. LMAO

sooner or later the odds will kick in and you will be right one of these days

[blockhead]

Market is up 1% or less, PRC is down 0.9%, hardly end of the world stuff

[Dr_Who]

SP down on a Big Up Day for the market.

I do not like the smell of this.

Yeah, doesnt look good.

Management is either telling fibs or posters here are onto something that is no good. :confused:

[Balance]

Market is up 1% or less, PRC is down 0.9%, hardly end of the world stuff

The point is that PRC should be racing ahead. Look at MCC in Oz.

Waiting for some kind of announcement.

[Xerof]

- the coal sale price is locked in - no participation in upside this year

- the currency is on an upward tear for the moment, no hedging, so slow deterioration of proceeds in NZD

- they are still in the production ramping up process

- and they have a significant milestone to achieve by November to avoid a calamity


SO, we watch and wait....as does the market.

Disc: I have downsold a fair chunk to put to better use in the meantime (more CFE on Friday), but still hold a small interest

[LJB]

Average volume for last fortnight is about 400 000 shares traded per day. Roughly half way through today and about 145 000 traded. Nothing out of the ordinary in terms of volumes.

[fabs]

Mining Disaster in the Ukraine etc.
This stock is held by a lot of neurotic and panicky investors

[Bilo]

[quote=Xerof;270225]- the coal sale price is locked in - no participation in upside this year

- the currency is on an upward tear for the moment, no hedging, so slow deterioration of proceeds in NZD

Xerof I am not sure that this is true. PRC has a significant debt in USD (30M) to repay so any earnings in USD will go towards that - reducing NZD debt levels significantly - and I understand that it can be repaid early.:)

[Xerof]

If you are referring to the Convertible Notes, PRC's hands are effectively tied as far as any certainty to repay - the holder has all the options until expiry. PRC would of course like them to convert to Ords (esp given there is a nasty clause regarding the exchange rate this will release at - you will see a partial provision is in the accounts already for this)

I'm not aware of any other debt, but stand corrected if there is

[Balance]

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=anPsamswT_DU

PRC's production coming in too late.

[Xerof]

LOL - the story isn't even up yet, and in goes the boot

Question for you Balance - who are PRC selling to? and what is the particular quality of their coal?

[duncan macgregor]

MY intentions are i wouldnt touch it with your barge pole.
Getting the stuff out is to complicated that is the one big reason for me to avoid this share. Macdunk That was my first post on this company. Now that the getting it out is less complicated, i did post that they have to get it past that bastard warfie set up at littleton. Nobody seems to think that is a threat, other than my good self, but as i said before, the time to buy is when the coal gets delivered, with realistic numbers being produced. Remember the life of the mine is limited, deduct its worth you FA people, one day you are left holdng the skeleton. So far the investment is not worth the trouble, lets see realistic numbers, then, and only then, we can make an informed investment decision. Macdunk

[Balance]

LOL - the story isn't even up yet, and in goes the boot

Question for you Balance - who are PRC selling to? and what is the particular quality of their coal?

Question for you Xerof - How long before PRC actually ships some coal? And in what quantity?

[Nitaa]

Question for you Xerof - How long before PRC actually ships some coal? And in what quantity?Balance. Lets be fair about this all. PRC has done well to get where it is. Most thought it would never happen.

Another poster made some suggestion about possible problem at the mine just the other day. Now we hear Jack Didley from him. Now ever 3 or so months u pop your head up saying how PRC is underperforming, rock overhang, slowing economies and crashing commodity prices and the list goes on. Why dont you just come out with your gripes about PRC or NZO whichever it is. Otherwise posters are seeing you as coming out with the same shtt different day.

I personally dont hold, never have and have no intentions to. I admit it is a high risk company but with any high risk come high rewards

[Xerof]

Balance, you'll find all the answers on the website

DYOR

[Balance]

Balance, you'll find all the answers on the website

DYOR

Yes. And they have only been wrong for the last 2 years!

Given the skepticism of investors, gives an opportunity for those who believe to buy cheap, right?

[Arthur]

Good chance to "top up" tommorrow as investors with less than a 20 year timeframe finally decide that they have had a gutsful.

[Dr_Who]

I dont blame the investors for getting peeeed off with management's BS and 2 year delay. They are constantly skating on thin ice. Most are very skeptical if they can meet the Nov deadline of delivery. The pressure is on. Heads should roll if they dont meet this deadline.

[Nitaa]

I dont blame the investors for getting peeeed off with management's BS and 2 year delay. They are constantly skating on thin ice. Most are very skeptical if they can meet the Nov deadline of delivery. The pressure is on. Heads should roll if they dont meet this deadline.Actually its closer to a 10 year delay. Pike was meant to be under way around 2000. That aside, i think they have performed remarkably even if their expectations have been over optimistic.

[the machine]

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=anPsamswT_DU

PRC's production coming in too late.


seem to be reading its thermal coal that will be the loser with china reopenning some mines

M

[the machine]

Balance, you'll find all the answers on the website

DYOR

the "late" asx announcement today was not a good read for investors apart from liberty finance.

and i just checked nzx and its not even shown there yet

M

[the machine]

That was my first post on this company. Now that the getting it out is less complicated, i did post that they have to get it past that bastard warfie set up at littleton. Nobody seems to think that is a threat, other than my good self, but as i said before, the time to buy is when the coal gets delivered, with realistic numbers being produced. Remember the life of the mine is limited, deduct its worth you FA people, one day you are left holdng the skeleton. So far the investment is not worth the trouble, lets see realistic numbers, then, and only then, we can make an informed investment decision. Macdunk


DM, good to hear from you

and first delivery now "planned" for 2010

http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/displayAnnouncement.do?display=pdf&idsId=00980438

M

[da puntzda]

Machine

Very interesting - I sometimes day trade PRCOA - whilst not punting today I watched this mornings action with interest when it was sold off from circa 28 cents to 24 cents before rebuilding back to 27 cents - be very interesting to know if those early sellers were in the know of the announcement.

I reckon they would have to have been!



disc not holding

[Bilo]

If you are referring to the Convertible Notes, PRC's hands are effectively tied as far as any certainty to repay - the holder has all the options until expiry. PRC would of course like them to convert to Ords (esp given there is a nasty clause regarding the exchange rate this will release at - you will see a partial provision is in the accounts already for this)

I'm not aware of any other debt, but stand corrected if there is

This from the company 10 June 2009 wrt takeover panel submission:

"The inability to achieve production (66667 tonnes per month) by 30 june 2009 has resulted in renegotiation of certain terms of the Bonds, including an effective increase in the interest rate from 6.75% to 10.75% from 1 April 2009 (unless the Bonds are redeemed prior to 31 December 2009) and the right for Pike River to redeem the Bonds early subject to certain pre-conditions being met."


Terms changed is my understanding Xerof - a 30M USD hedge of sorts. Just two ship loads... :)

[Bilo]

Machine

Very interesting - I sometimes day trade PRCOA - whilst not punting today I watched this mornings action with interest when it was sold off from circa 28 cents to 24 cents before rebuilding back to 27 cents - be very interesting to know if those early sellers were in the know of the announcement.

I reckon they would have to have been!

disc not holding

In agreement dp. Possible that the strength in the NZD was the cause tho. LOL. The promise of more regular updates now, given that they may need more funds because they haven't delivered is also laughable. They should have been up front before today! Shame on GW..again

[Hoop]

In agreement dp. Possible that the strength in the NZD was the cause tho. LOL. The promise of more regular updates now, given that they may need more funds because they haven't delivered is also laughable. They should have been up front before today! Shame on GW..again

Not looking forward to tomorrows share price. I wonder how much the market has already factored this in through rumours?

PRC promise of more regular updates now...Hmmm...yeah Bilo, I smell a PRCOB :p

[Nitaa]

likely drop to around $1.00 to $1.05 by end of today

[Dr_Who]

PRC management is a bunch of BS artist.

I recall an article which they said they are very confident in meeting the nov deadline delivery.

[brucey09]

senors
senor ward must exit

[glennj]

Well, well, well the following is what I posted late last month & a few days ago I asked if an announcement was out re on time delivery and quantity.
Locally it has been known for some time that productivity problems were ongoing and making the deadline would be a big ask!




Pub talk a few weeks back from some of the workers was that revised targets may be optimistic. Some of the past gossip from such sources has been eeriely accurate.

[winner69]

Why give up now ... as the man says himself “the Pike River mine has overcome many challenges to get into operation and whilst the current delay is frustrating for investors, customers and staff, it is an issue that many new mines have to face and work through. Most of the hard work has been done and investors patience is set to be repaid, with Pike River producing low ash coal at a time of rising global demand"

[dsurf]

I see two great trades coming up.

Shorting CFD's today (assumption is large / continuing fall tomorrow when gets in the papers & mum & dad's shyt themselves and give up on the "3 months to go" dream since not in the herald today

Then when at 90c to $1 go long after investors have dumped.

New machinery needs fixing & causes delays - what the !!!!

[Balance]

Machines obviously unsuited for the mine.

Oh well, happy mining folks. Plenty of cheaper stocks around today.

Wonder who were the smart ones who sold out in the last few weeks or so.

[Dr_Who]

Would you guys believe any thing that comes out of PRC management?

Anything that comes out of PRC management's mouth is worthless.

[Balance]

I ve trying to tell this to everyone a few post back.

PRC is under valued compared to other Aussie coal miners. Ok they may have some teething problems and delays in tunneling, but that is expected with all major construction projects. Those that are familiar with construction knows to expect delays and teething problems in any project of this size.

I put my money where my mouth is and had bought more shares when it was $1.12 last week.

Dr Who, you are a long term value investor. Delays are to be expected?

[Dr_Who]

Dr Who, you are a long term value investor. Delays are to be expected?

Yes I am, PRC is only a very small part of my overall resource holding.

Thank God my Aussie resources are doing very well. Will I add more PRC to the portfolio? Probably not, cos I dont trust management anymore. Do I think PRC is under valued? Yes I do. Just a real shame PRC management is a bunch of BS artist who have proven themselves to be amateurs in the mining sector.

PRC is just another NZ company with so much potential but little substance behind it. Maybe one day it is a T/O target, cos management will stuff it up so bad that it will be a predictor for overseas firms buying it out cheap.

[Wilkins_Micawber]

It is far better to under-promise then over-deliver than it is the other way around. And it is far better to keep the market well informed than not. On that basis PRC management appear to be falling short!

Early info apparently leaking out at the pubs quite a while ago shows that there was probably insufficient contingency built in to the plans and inadequate info being released to the market. The shareprice softened quite a bit over the last 10 days while the markets have all been doing well - this info was known to enough people to cause this price weakening so why not provide an update to the market.

Whilst delays are part of any business and will not materially affect what I do, I think management are leaving themselves very open to criticism!!

[Balance]

Yes I am, PRC is only a very small part of my overall resource holding.

Thank God my Aussie resources are doing very well. Will I add more PRC to the portfolio? Probably not, cos I dont trust management anymore. Do I think PRC is under valued? Yes I do. Just a real shame PRC management is a bunch of BS artist who have proven themselves to be amateurs in the mining sector.

PRC is just another NZ company with so much potential but little substance behind it. Maybe one day it is a T/O target, cos management will stuff it up so bad that it will be a predictor for overseas firms buying it out cheap.

First golden rule of investing is that you are investing in the management. Why be in there when you have no confidence in management?

[glennj]

[quote=winner69;270427]Why give up now ...

Answer: Because management lack credibility.

I'd be wary of this company until they have the runs on the board so to speak and only buy if they stack up in FA terms.
There may be more to this than machinery & training issues. Is there as much clean easy mining coal as predicted in the places they predicted it would be?

[Bilo]

It is far better to under-promise then over-deliver than it is the other way around. And it is far to to keep the market well informed than not. On that basis PRC management appear to be falling short!

Early info apparently leaking out at the pubs quite a while ago shows that there was probably insufficient contingency built in to the plans and inadequate info being released to the market. The shareprice softened quite a bit over the last 10 days while the markets have all been doing well - this info was known to enough people to cause this price weakening so why not provide an update to the market.

Whilst delays are part of any business and will not materially affect what I do, I think management are leaving themselves very open to criticism!!

Hear Hear Wilkins!

Rather than tell us that they are all working 24x7 I would rather they posted the tonnes of coal produced, at least weekly. Without measurement there is no improvement. Starting from zero the only way is up.

Much better to have continual information than pub talk, accusations of insider trading, or waiting until your last target has been missed to inform the market that you have set yourself a new target. Get real moving the first shipment of a month's production by a quarter!

[Casa del Energia]

Much wailing and gnashing of teeth. Well, what do can you expect? It's underground mining!. In contrast to my grandpappies day - the pike river mine is a cake walk.
Let's put it in perspective. In the 1920s at the Millerton mine, my mother's primary school class would all stop and rush to the window whenever empty trucks went down form the mine - it meant that some kid probably lost their father. The mine eventually caught fire because they cut out too much from the pillars and the coal started 'spitting' out from the walls because of the pressure - spontaneous combustion was the result. In underground mines - things go bad real fast.
In comparison - mines these days run like clockwork - - but it is still underground mining and even with modern safety and equipment it is a case of people working with geology and heavy machines in a confined space. Things will always 'happen' - but in contrast to mines that 'went before' it's a walk in the park. But there will always be something derailing, blowing its hydraulics etc. If you can't deal with that - go invest in a baby wear company instead.

[lodger]

...is that whoever wrote the financial results report doesn't even know how to calculate percentages. For example, operating revenue has gone from 10K to 5K. The report says this is a decrease of 100%. Doh....
No wonder they can't get anything else right

[Wilkins_Micawber]

Much wailing and gnashing of teeth. Well, what do can you expect? It's underground mining!. In contrast to my grandpappies day - the pike river mine is a cake walk.
Let's put it in perspective. In the 1920s at the Millerton mine, my mother's primary school class would all stop and rush to the window whenever empty trucks went down form the mine - it meant that some kid probably lost their father. The mine eventually caught fire because they cut out too much from the pillars and the coal started 'spitting' out from the walls because of the pressure - spontaneous combustion was the result. In underground mines - things go bad real fast.
In comparison - mines these days run like clockwork - - but it is still underground mining and even with modern safety and equipment it is a case of people working with geology and heavy machines in a confined space. Things will always 'happen' - but in contrast to mines that 'went before' it's a walk in the park. But there will always be something derailing, blowing its hydraulics etc. If you can't deal with that - go invest in a baby wear company instead.

We are not talking about grandpappies days (in those days, it did take weeks for people to hear the news as there was no internet, etc). But we live in a different age, where information (up to date, that is, not PRC style) is everything - we must compare apples with apples, not with oranges and look at risks and information releases relative to todays industries/markets. I hope you are not implying that a few deaths nowadays shouldn't be taken that badly 'cause it happened all the time a 100 years ago.

It's not that we can't deal with the risks (else we probably wouldn't be posting here), in fact it is probably expected. However, it is also expected that shareholders will be informed before or as soon as (certainly not later) it becomes general knowledge in the pubs. The period of development is also the highest risk due to unknowns and one thing going wrong now means how many more will we still strike before we get to full production (this is not the first delay is it) - as opposed to a temporary delay due to one thing going wrong when things are already at full production and pretty much derisked (from a development point of view). You are talking about operational risk, we are concerned with development risk on top of that and have a right to be informed earlier.

Operational problems will most likely cause a reduction in profit, whereas development issues (esp. prior to starting to produce income) can necessitate still more fund raising and could potentially cause the project to go broke or become unfeasible (depending on what they encounter) - somewhat different issues and levels of risk, nes pas?

[Casa del Energia]

We are not talking about grandpappies days (in those days, it did take weeks for people to hear the news as there was no internet, etc). But we live in a different age, where information (up to date, that is, not PRC style) is everything
.........
.........
(depending on what they encounter) - somewhat different issues and levels of risk, nes pas?

Actually, I see your point about tardiness of information. In mitigation of my view - or perhaps more of clarification of what I admit was a clumsily developed comment is to not be too worried when hitches occur.

[Bilo]

Hear Hear Wilkins!

Rather than tell us that they are all working 24x7 I would rather they posted the tonnes of coal produced, at least weekly. Without measurement there is no improvement. Starting from zero the only way is up.

Much better to have continual information than pub talk, accusations of insider trading, or waiting until your last target has been missed to inform the market that you have set yourself a new target. Get real moving the first shipment of a month's production by a quarter!

So what were the equipment issues?
Height of mining equipment 4m, height of coal seam 13m, result happiness.
Height of mining equipment 4m, height of coal seam 2m, result misery.
just treated like mushrooms...methinks
:confused:

[Balance]

Actually, I see your point about tardiness of information. In mitigation of my view - or perhaps more of clarification of what I admit was a clumsily developed comment is to not be too worried when hitches occur.

One or two hitches, ok. But delays after delays after delays?

Something is very wrong with this mine.

[Mr Tommy]

Rather than tell us that they are all working 24x7 I would rather they posted the tonnes of coal produced, at least weekly. Without measurement there is no improvement. Starting from zero the only way is up.

Yes, they should get the tea lady back with her colour crayons and she can produce a nice graph each week like she did for the tunnel progess. Each week (hopefully) the little pile of coal will get a little higher. In fact she can get her shovel out and start digging.

The quarterly announcement on 21 July said "Stockpiles of premium hard coking coal are now building at Pike River's coal preparation plant. " but how many tonnes were there?

After all the missed deadlines give us the facts, tell us how much is being produced each week.

[Balance]

Next they will be having another rights issue to raise more capital as cash flow is now going to be delayed. Expenses have to be met.

[Corporate]

Next they will be having another rights issue to raise more capital as cash flow is now going to be delayed. Expenses have to be met.

Yip I agree. PRC is a sell at the moment.

[Xerof]

I'm out entirely....only had 10k left.....don't have a live chart, but it's probably fired sell signals all over the paddock - MA crossing 30/60, OBV will look lousy after today, trendline broken, and high volume downday

[Unicorn]

Looking back at the calendar year production forecasts in the PRC prospectus (June 2007) indicates more than $200M of expected income has been missed so far.


Year Production
2008 243,000t
2009 1,039,000t
2010 968,000t

Liberty Harbor may have responded "favourably" to the initial approach for an extension - but at what cost?

If I were holding shares I would also be very worried by "The mine is working 2 shifts 24 hours per day, 7 days a week in order to meet our production targets, and all Pike River's management and staff are focussed and committed to this outcome". This implies they need to work 24x7 for around 6 months to get the first 60,000t! The production cost must be horrendous.

[Sideshow Bob]

Hands up who's surprised at another shambolic effort by PRC management. There has been a 'smell' about Pike for a while now, and surprise!! Appreciate it isn't an instanteous situation, but what has happened to 'continuous disclosure'.

To me there are 3 aspects to this:

1. Pike management have no credibility
2. What cost with Liberty Harbour?
3. Pike mangement have no credibility!!

:(

[The BOWMAN]

Could this be the lowest point (not referring to the price) in Pike's history? Bloody amateurs.

[fish]

One or two hitches, ok. But delays after delays after delays?

Something is very wrong with this mine.


Its "fawlty"

[Balance]

Looking back at the calendar year production forecasts in the PRC prospectus (June 2007) indicates more than $200M of expected income has been missed so far.


Year Production
2008 243,000t
2009 1,039,000t
2010 968,000t

Liberty Harbor may have responded "favourably" to the initial approach for an extension - but at what cost?

If I were holding shares I would also be very worried by "The mine is working 2 shifts 24 hours per day, 7 days a week in order to meet our production targets, and all Pike River's management and staff are focussed and committed to this outcome". This implies they need to work 24x7 for around 6 months to get the first 60,000t! The production cost must be horrendous.

It is almost impossible to get the forecasts more wrong. Still, the management are still there at the coal-face and you have no choice but to trust them now.

Those of you who believe that the delays do not imply anything serious, you now have yet another opportunity to buy in cheap.

This is a great stock - as delivery of the coal gets closer and closer, it gets cheaper and cheaper. Think about that for a minute.

[pietrade]

..........................This is a great stock - as delivery of the coal gets closer and closer, it gets cheaper and cheaper...........................

Have jumped out of heads and oppies and I'll be waiting for a much cheaper re-entry this time around.

As others have already mentioned, disclosure of these problems - which must have been becoming apparent for some time now - is absolutely ABYSMAL.

[dsurf]

buy the oppies time coming up? 20 year mine.

[Balance]

Thanks JB.

On that note, one assumes that everything is going well down in the tunnel. PRC management have alot of learn about keeping us informed.

I assume also that PRC should be negotiating for a fixed 1 year contract price to sell their coal? Either that or sell it on the market floating price.

You got it right second time, Dr Who.

Not to worry though - the coal will not disappear as it is there in the ground?

[bob.not.a.builder]

I pulled out. Cant wait that long for PRC to correct itself. Will re-entry later after some positive news.

[Placebo]

What's that quote? "We have come too far not to go further"

PRC past the point of no return I think... and probably so are those who are holders and who bought into the rights... :(

[glennj]

- the coal will not disappear as it is there in the ground?

But is it there in the forecast quantities that can be easily mined?
Note that there have been "geological" problems.

[Prospecting was not nearly as comprehensive as experts would have liked because of constraints associated with National Park status]

[elZorro]

Re: trouble at the mine: I traced my plane trip conversation to mid-March 2008. I can't remember the details that well, but it sounded like a significant issue to the person I spoke to. I can't find out what I posted here anyway, because those posts around the time have all been moderated out (see page 248, late June 2009 to 16 July). Big brother?

[fabs]

First coal shipment now not until up to 7 months away [ sometime in the 1st qtr. 2010 ]
Only hope they have gone from over positive predictions to the under optimistic.

[Balance]

All gone very quiet, especially with the PRC holders.

Probably all too busy heading for the exit door?

Buying opportunity?

[nwood]

Glad to be out of PRC at this stage, still like the long term possibilities. I'll look at reentry if/when management improves its game (and they get some coal shipped!)

[Dr_Who]

All gone very quiet, especially with the PRC holders.



Cos everyone have given up on this dog... lol

There will be a time a pick up some more of this dog, but not just yet, unless you know something we dont.

[Xerof]

Bin selling for some weeks now - last lot yesterday on the intraday bounce, as already mentioned

Have voted with my feet, rather than my mouth.

The oppies have held up rather well - switching is possibly the play?

A webcam and microphone in a few of the Greymouth pubs would be of assistance with this one - it's obviously the Perth of the NZ mining sector.....

[Xeroxyz]

Bin selling for some weeks now - last lot yesterday on the intraday bounce, as already mentioned

Have voted with my feet, rather than my mouth.

The oppies have held up rather well - switching is possibly the play?

A webcam and microphone in a few of the Greymouth pubs would be of assistance with this one - it's obviously the Perth of the NZ mining sector.....

'So long and thanks for all the fish' - my favourite song - I'm going to have it played at my funeral...

I held large qauntities of the options, but have sold all but a handful. As you can tell by the number of posts I'm new to this BLOG business, so I'm wondering if some of the SENIORS or GURUS can tell me :rolleyes:why the options have held up so much when the heads have fallen so far?? :rolleyes:

[Rabbi]

'So long and thanks for all the fish' - my favourite song - I'm going to have it played at my funeral...

I held large qauntities of the options, but have sold all but a handful. As you can tell by the number of posts I'm new to this BLOG business, so I'm wondering if some of the SENIORS or GURUS can tell me :rolleyes:why the options have held up so much when the heads have fallen so far?? :rolleyes:

The options can be realized right up until their expiry day and most people are betting that the options will be in the money by at least the current option price plus $1.25. This is,- of course- not what all the holders are necessarily thinking, as all option holders have different motives for buying and selling options; ie short term trades, medium term plays, institutions wanting cheap head shares etc.etc. However the reality is, that on the expiry date of the option, the option is worth whatever amount the head shareprice happens to be above $1.25.

I have liitle doubt that production at PRC will get faster and faster as it is the nature of people to overecome obstacles. Miners will get more skilled as they become more familiar with machinery and the work environment. Also, as they move away from the fault, mining the coal will become easier and less dangerous.

They will have no show of getting out one millioin tonnes a year; that figure is just pure PR drivel. But they will have fun trying and in the process they might just make us all shareholders in a "good little earner".:cool:

[Aotea]

People,
Just back on here after being banned...please excuse my naivety about the forum. I wont say anything unsubstantiated again. I disclosed not holding any, and certianly dont way any prc. Why invest in an underground project on the convergence zone of two continential plates?? I must add, the news for PRC hasnt exactly been rosey since I posted that comment...apologies again.

[digger]

People,
Just back on here after being banned...please excuse my naivety about the forum. I wont say anything unsubstantiated again. I disclosed not holding any, and certianly dont way any prc. Why invest in an underground project on the convergence zone of two continential plates?? I must add, the news for PRC hasnt exactly been rosey since I posted that comment...apologies again.

Aotea,the answer to your question is because that is where the hard coking coal is. I have heard of overseas people say why live in NZ when the big quake is already 1100 years overdue and could happen anytime,so that would cover the pike mine as well. Who knows all might be quite for the next million years.

[Hoop]

People,
Just back on here after being banned...please excuse my naivety about the forum. I wont say anything unsubstantiated again. I disclosed not holding any, and certianly dont way any prc. Why invest in an underground project on the convergence zone of two continential plates?? I must add, the news for PRC hasnt exactly been rosey since I posted that comment...apologies again.

Aotea... "...Why invest in an underground project on the convergence zone of two continential plates?...."

I am one of many who invest in the market. The definition of a market is an area where people buy/sell/exchange in anything that is tradeable. Some tradeable items are less risky than others and are priced accordingly .

Aotea, you are correct that PRC is a high risk investment, (The PRC prospectus also agrees) and these high risk factors are factored into the shareprice.

Why should one invest in a risky environment ? At some point (price) the reward outweighs the risk..it is obvious at this precise moment of time, at $1.15 for PRC the risk is seen as too great and the reward too little..and the market has re-rated this back to a $1.00. Every investor is different..some only invest in low risk items, some others may like a little more excitement in their investing lives and dabble in a much risky environment. Aotea you seem to be in the low risk investor category, so therefore PRC would not be a suitable investment for you.

Aotea...everything you do everyday carries some sort of risk. Even sleeping in your bed has its risks.

In the marketplace some investors invest on your risks in your own personal life....they are usually the people within life or medical insurance companies.

It's happening all around you all of the time...most people just don't think about these marketplace activities and go about living their lives.

[friedegg]

i would have thought with the current debate regarding mining on doc land that showcasing the prc mine on something like 60 minutes or sunday programme would be a good idea,unless they just bowled kauri trees or crushed a few snails along the way:)but it would be a good opportunity to see the mine

[forest]

Yes friedegg it would de interesting to see a bit of this mine. Does anybody know the size of the seam they working on at the moment (hight and wide)?

Forest

[duncan macgregor]

Yes friedegg it would de interesting to see a bit of this mine. Does anybody know the size of the seam they working on at the moment (hight and wide)?

Forest why invest in something that is veiled in secretcy?. They are either stupid or hiding some unpleasant surprizes. Take your pick its your money. Macdunk

[Hoop]

Yes friedegg it would de interesting to see a bit of this mine. Does anybody know the size of the seam they working on at the moment (hight and wide)?

Forest

See page 6 of 22 for size of Brunner seam (http://www.pike.co.nz/shareholder-section/stock-exchange-announcements/2006/AusIMM_Waih_%202006-Stock_Exchange.pdf)

[forest]

Hoop interesting document but its 3 year old. They are talking about the seam being between 3 and 13 meters thick. Now that they are working at the coal face it would be interesting to know what they have found at the present location where they work.

[Snow Leopard]

Hoop interesting document but its 3 year old. They are talking about the seam being between 3 and 13 meters thick. Now that they are working at the coal face it would be interesting to know what they have found at the present location where they work.

Apparently they have unearthed the complete skeleton of a dinosaur holding a placard which reads "You were right MacDunk".

regards
Paper Tiger

[the machine]

Apparently they have unearthed the complete skeleton of a dinosaur holding a placard which reads "You were right MacDunk".

regards
Paper Tiger


where does the rock overhang fit in?

smile sniper!!


M

[Hoop]

Hoop interesting document but its 3 year old. They are talking about the seam being between 3 and 13 meters thick. Now that they are working at the coal face it would be interesting to know what they have found at the present location where they work.

The document re:- Brunner seam is still valid today.
They have been mentioning the same data in their later prospectus including the latest PRCOA prospectus.
I'm got no idea how they analysed the seam apart from test drills. I guess modern technology these days makes for better accuracy. Maybe a STer with experience in this area may be able to explain this further.

[Wilkins_Micawber]

Shareprice seems to be softening again - based on my observations to date I am speculating that there may be more bad news on the way. Two choices here - (a) go for a pint at the local West Coast pub (not a practical option for most NZ'ers) and keep an ear open/chat to the right people, or (b) wait for another two or three weeks and hope that there is a press release. Or am I just becoming a bit too cynical (I kind of hope so, but trust is hard to earn and very easily lost).

[Billy Boy]

Could be this machinery issue is bigger than we think.
Pitty PRC could not take a leaf outta NZO's book and
communicate a bit better.
BB

[Balance]

Could be this machinery issue is bigger than we think.
Pitty PRC could not take a leaf outta NZO's book and
communicate a bit better.
BB

Announcement to watch out for is what Liberty Harbor is going to do? If they decide to call in their convertible note issue of $40m, the announcement will be yet another rights issue.

[Billy Boy]

Announcement to watch out for is what Liberty Harbor is going to do? If they decide to call in their convertible note issue of $40m, the announcement will be yet another rights issue.

Hell !!
Your right, I 4got about that :o
Tks BB

[Balance]

Strange no announcement from PRC re Liberty Harbor. They are usually very very quick to pump out any good news.

[Corporate]

I think there is a very real chance that PRC will need to put their hand out for more shareholder funds.

Cash at the end of June is $20.1m and first coal sale isn't until Q1 2010!

[blockhead]

I seem to recall talk of a smaller shipment of coal being sent before the end of this year, this could delay or negate the need for extra funds to be called on, haven't heard any more of that possibility lately though.
An announcement to that effect would engender confidence I suspect.

[Balance]

So is it true?

PRC sp seems to move ahead of price sensitive news being announced. The collapse of the ventilation shaft was known by some well before it was announced to the market. Sp was dropping before the announcement.

PRC's sp action and negative announcements :

11 Feb $1.00
18 Feb $0.93
19 Feb Announcement of ventilation shaft collapsed
20 Feb $0.86 (down 14% from 11 Feb)
26 Feb $0.82
27 Feb Announcement of rights issue
27 Feb $0.80 (down 20% from 11 Feb)

Next one

14 Aug $1.19
24 Aug $1.14
25 Aug Announcement of production delay
26 Aug $1.00 (down down 16% from 14 Aug)

Pays to watch the sp action of PRC very carefully.

Such is the nature of mining companies - too many players at the coal face who would be aware of what's going on. Best place to know what's going on - local pubs at West Coast.

[Nitaa]

PRC's sp action and negative announcements :

11 Feb $1.00
18 Feb $0.93
19 Feb Announcement of ventilation shaft collapsed
20 Feb $0.86 (down 14% from 11 Feb)
26 Feb $0.82
27 Feb Announcement of rights issue
27 Feb $0.80 (down 20% from 11 Feb)

Next one

14 Aug $1.19
24 Aug $1.14
25 Aug Announcement of production delay
26 Aug $1.00 (down down 16% from 14 Aug)

Pays to watch the sp action of PRC very carefully.

Such is the nature of mining companies - too many players at the coal face who would be aware of what's going on. Best place to know what's going on - local pubs at West Coast.The big indicator for me was the Indian companies didnt take up the rights issue. That signalled things were a lot worse than PRC was making out imo.

Although i question your motive it is fair to say that PRC and Gordon Ward dont have a strong repution or credability at to this point.

[Balance]

Well, there's good news if Liberty Harbor decides to redeem - the NZ$ is stronger so the US$ notes will be lower in value.

Only bad news is that PRC's profit forecasts were based upon NZ$ being US$0.57 in 2010!

[Dr_Who]

If PRC is to do a capital raising, they should at least do a decent size one to completely cover all debt.

[Balance]

Some big player(s) obviously getting out. There's a seller for just under 300,000 at 98 cents in the ASX.

Why would you put a line of stock that big on the market?

[dayz]

Some possibilities :

To drive the price down so that you could buy cheaply later ?

To get out in a hurry because you think the price is going to tank.

Because you have a lot more to sell & are looking for big buyers?

[patrick]

DOWN from here.

[Billy Boy]

Right....
So PRC is a giant con trick......!
or.....!
Prc has had some bad luck....?
or....?
Prc is run by many incomp's (management)...?
or....?
who is finally going to win.... $$$ wise ???
Where next ???
This machinery thingy..... Well...No Not good,
How us share holders herd about it ??? for gods sake..!!
many Q's... I have touched upon a few...
I hold six figures in the heads and high six figures with the options.
Am giving due consideration to both.
Maybe time to bail..... ???
At the end of the day, one of my great Q's to myself....
"Can you do something better with the cash right now" ???
BB.. getting pissed off with PIKE !!

[waterboy]

bailed out of pike a while ago for all the above issues.
can you do something better ?
well look at whitehaven coal in aus, who can say it it will continue or not but the last few months while PRC has struggled its price has been going strong abeit a bit volatile.
PRC will do better when they start shipping and meeting targets in the meantime it is a long wait for good news

[Balance]

Right....
So PRC is a giant con trick......!
or.....!
Prc has had some bad luck....?
or....?
Prc is run by many incomp's (management)...?
or....?
who is finally going to win.... $$$ wise ???
Where next ???
This machinery thingy..... Well...No Not good,
How us share holders herd about it ??? for gods sake..!!
many Q's... I have touched upon a few...
I hold six figures in the heads and high six figures with the options.
Am giving due consideration to both.
Maybe time to bail..... ???
At the end of the day, one of my great Q's to myself....
"Can you do something better with the cash right now" ???
BB.. getting pissed off with PIKE !!

Hard to tell. Unfortunately PRC's management and directors do themselves and shareholders no favor whatsoever - they keep pumping out the same old highly optimistic but so-far unattainable production schedule and targets.

But 2 years behind schedule and tens of millions of costs-overruns - something is simply not right. Wonder where in their planning they have gone so wrong.

[Wilkins_Micawber]

But 2 years behind schedule and tens of millions of costs-overruns - something is simply not right. Wonder where in their planning they have gone so wrong.

My (uneducated) guess is not allowing anything like enough time/cost contingency for a big project and not expecting to encounter some decent set-backs along the way. This sort of thing happens even in constructing a simple house (above ground!).

I don't think that the sort of things that have occured would be that unusual in this sort of industry - just that in what could perhaps be taken to be apparent naivety or over ambitous planning, they didn't allow sufficiently for delays in their schedules.

As I posted earlier - better to under-promise then over-deliver than to over-promise and under-deliver.

[Balance]

My (uneducated) guess is not allowing anything like enough time/cost contingency for a big project and not expecting to encounter some decent set-backs along the way. This sort of thing happens even in constructing a simple house (above ground!).

I don't think that the sort of things that have occured would be that unusual in this sort of industry - just that in what could perhaps be taken to be apparent naivety or over ambitous planning, they didn't allow sufficiently for delays in their schedules.

As I posted earlier - better to under-promise then over-deliver than to over-promise and under-deliver.

Trouble is that these guys have been over-promising for 2 years! People in real life who do that either are poor learners or are desperate. I read PRC as desperate - keep promising so the cash keeps coming in to cover the poor planning, execution and problems.

The Indians have decided not to tip in any more money. That is very telling.

I agree with Dr Who - they need to come clean. Raise all the funds they need and get on with the job.

[Dr_Who]

A bunch of amateurs running the show, that is the problem. On top of that management keeps telling fibs to the media.

Come clean, raise a decent size to cover debt and not need to tap the market in the near future for addition capital. This time round, make sure they can meet schedule. Heads should roll/replaced to give market some confidence.

I may participate in the potential cap raising depending on their strategy. I would like to see some at top level management replaced for getting it so wrong and for telling BS.

[Balance]

A bunch of amateurs running the show, that is the problem. On top of that management keeps telling fibs to the media.

Come clean, raise a decent size to cover debt and not need to tap the market in the near future for addition capital. This time round, make sure they can meet schedule. Heads should roll/replaced to give market some confidence.

I may participate in the potential cap raising depending on their strategy. I would like to see some at top level management replaced for getting it so wrong and for telling BS.

There will be no management changes - they are too entrenched.

Can't blame management for acting the way they do - too many shareholders and market prepared to give them the benefit of the doubt and believe their spin.

Any capital raising will be on very very good terms to interested parties.

[Hoop]

.........

.....As I posted earlier - better to under-promise then over-deliver than to over-promise and under-deliver.

If we had that under-promise then over-deliver scenario with a ideal transparent management structure to boot ...would the share price be much different than today's ????


One could argue that if the share price was a lot higher due to that ideal excellent management then theoretically the overall investment risk must be a little lower.. this would lower the opportunity factor for the investor entering into PRC now and in the near future ...thus lowering that theoretical "potential buy demand".


How PRC stands at the moment due to lack of transparency (a bad management practice!)..there is plenty of upside for the Management to improve...hence a high "potential buy demand at some stage in the future when investors see this company in a positive light.

In a possible paradox view, one could think that this present Management could be viewed as under-promising their shareholders now and with continuing experience being gained may over deliver in the future when that experience is learn't and applied.

Viewing Pike as an overall investment, I believe the over riding factor is that the market has labeled Pike as a high risk investment and rightly so (see original prospectus), therefore in theory one should expect a higher than average volatility. Higher Volatility means higher more severe "potential sell" periods as well as higher more severe "potential buy" periods.

The chart below would verify Pike is acting as a typical high risk stock and is seen as coal price sensitive.

http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/PRC12092009.png

[Nitaa]

PRC has long had a credabilty problem. They have constantly predicted the future on a "Best Case Scenario". Whether its been timelines, Capital Expenditure or whatever, they have often fallen way way short. The only exception i saw in a conversative or realistic projections was the coking coal prices for the IPO. However, in my opinion coking coal prices forcasting or projections are totally irrelevant if if production timelines are years behind. For all i was concerned, the prices could have been $10,000 a tonne but you dont get any coin if you are not producing or bring it to the market.

I have to say, I am rather critical of the prospectus for the Pike IPO based on the above and as i have said, the prospectus projections are based on "Best Case Scenario".

I would also go as far as to say that PRC needed to go down that track to secure the funding from investors. Otherwise PRC would all but be dead and burrued already. Also remember when the directors of NZO resigned. Most will never know the reason behind the independant directors resigning but most can draw a conclusion from it.

Thats a lot of the bad news but the positives are that PRC are closer today than yesterday of getting their first shipment out. NZO in particular have at least showed they didnt give up in bringing PRC to where it is now but in hindsight i am sure they wished they had let PRC go way back in the nineties. PRC sucked the life blood out of NZO and prevented them from concentrating on finding more oil & gas with and with a stronger financial position.

What i have posted above hasnt been taken lightly. It is speculation but I truly believe some of my points are very hard to argue against. In saying that I welcome any views to the contrary.

discl. hold too much prc through my nzo holding

[Wilkins_Micawber]

Issue price July 07 $1.00 - over 2 years of development and "progress" later and the share price is lower. Something has to be wrong - I think a distinct lack of trust in management is showing through.

[Billy Boy]

Nita I generally agree with you.
This machinery issue is the one that gets me.
How we herd about it (ye gods)... I now think/guess that this
might be a smoke screen.
IMO.
Prc need to move quickly on :-
Announcing exactly what is wrong with the equipment.
How long will it take to fix. (or replace if necessary)
How much coal is out and stock piled (both sides of the hill)
How much coal is comming out now Weekly/monthly
The Liberty Habour factor. (could be sensitive) ??
And publish in such a way as not to be read as a lot
of B**l S**t. in essance, gain some credability .....
BB:mad:
PS readers will remember I have previously batted positively for
prc in the passed.

[Hoop]

Issue price July 07 $1.00 - over 2 years of development and "progress" later and the share price is lower. Something has to be wrong - I think a distinct lack of trust in management is showing through.

Whats your reasons for these drops (red) WM;);)

...........................20 July 2007 ............... Now

NZX50 ...................4320 .........................3137

MFT......................... 7.51 ........................ 5.13
FBU ........................12.73 ........................ 7.95
TEL.......................... 4.87 ........................ 2.72
CEN .........................9.45 ........................ 6.03
AIA .........................3.31..................... ..... 1.81
RAK .........................4.73..................... .... 1.35
NZO........................ 1.27 ........................ 1.61
PPL ........................ 3.46.......................... 1.95

PRC .................. 1.00.................... 0.98

To save an argument...Lets look at the Ozzie energy index that have coal miners in them


S&P/ASX200 Energy Ind 151.05.............. 161.98

[Balance]

Not a good attempt to justify PRC's sp performance (or lack thereof).

Apple for apple (coal to coal) comparison :

GCL 5.07 6.10 +20%
MCC 6.99 8.07 +15%
FLX 5.34 17.60 +229%
PRC 1.00 0.98 -2%

*comparison does not include dividends paid.

If anything, PRC should outperform the above as risks should now be out of the way.



Whats your reasons for these drops (red) WM;);)

...........................20 July 2007 ............... Now

NZX50 ...................4320 .........................3137

MFT......................... 7.51 ........................ 5.13
FBU ........................12.73 ........................ 7.95
TEL.......................... 4.87 ........................ 2.72
CEN .........................9.45 ........................ 6.03
AIA .........................3.31..................... ..... 1.81
RAK .........................4.73..................... .... 1.35
NZO........................ 1.27 ........................ 1.61
PPL ........................ 3.46.......................... 1.95

PRC .................. 1.00.................... 0.98

To save an argument...Lets look at the Ozzie energy index that have coal miners in them


S&P/ASX200 Energy Ind 151.05.............. 161.98

[Hoop]

Nita I generally agree with you.
This machinery issue is the one that gets me.
How we herd about it (ye gods)... I now think/guess that this
might be a smoke screen.
IMO.
Prc need to move quickly on :-
Announcing exactly what is wrong with the equipment.
How long will it take to fix. (or replace if necessary)
How much coal is out and stock piled (both sides of the hill)
How much coal is comming out now Weekly/monthly
The Liberty Habour factor. (could be sensitive) ??
And publish in such a way as not to be read as a lot
of B**l S**t. in essance, gain some credability .....
BB:mad:
PS readers will remember I have previously batted positively for
prc in the passed.

I don't think Investors really realise what high risk involves..The orginal prospectus indicates PRC IPO as a high risk investment.

High risk means High risk!!!!!!!

All the risk factors and their degree of risk is outlined in section 7 (page 100-) and in section 9 Independent technical review.

The prospectus states that PIKE operation is new to the company (high risk learning curve).

You guys can blame the management all you like but things do go wrong in a high risk environment and everyone was warned of these facts. When things go wrong it is easy to blame management in hindsight.

Personally all I can fault management (big time) with is lack of transparency and communication with its shareholders. Management had to dig to the coal and try to extract it from some very harsh conditions and and in some cases having to opt to using unconventional means to do so.

In section 9 the report has underground mining as a reasonable medium risk..see page 145 quote.... The use of the hydraulic mining method is unconventional in international coal mining (although more frequently used in, and suitable for, Pike River's geological conditions) and BDA considers there is potential for unforeseen issues and delays before the mine can consistently produce target tonnages.

The management is deemed a low/medium risk (page 147)

Production ramp up (this is what you guys are so concerned about) is deemed a medium risk (page 146-147) quote...BDA considers the mining ramp-up schedules reasonably aggressive and that the selected hydraulic mining method is relatively unusual. The learning curve to achieve the production rates proposed is considered possibly optimistic, with the
potential to impact revenue and working capital. The ability to produce consistently at the required rates may take some time to achieve and production rates in the early years may be lower than currently projected.
The proposed plant ramp up to design throughput is relatively rapid; however, BDA concedes that the plant ramp-up schedule is possible, given the relatively simple process, provided no unforeseen structural or geotechnical conditions are encountered. In-seam drilling is critical to achieving this.


read more about degrees of risk here..PIKE NZ Prospectus (http://www.pike.co.nz/reports/other-documents/new-zealand-prospectus.pdf)



Counting the last two years only, most investors would be Green with envy of 0+% return to their portfolios.....A PRC portfolio result of fractionally better than zero is even more remarkable considering Pike is a high risk stock and is encountering these high risk problems.... At this moment in theory you would think the share price should be a lot worse than 98c

The positive to this short term fixable problems is that in 9 months when the coal is flowing no one will remember this current negative sentiment patch, and all will be raving on how good Pike is.

Speaking about negative sentiment pulling down a share price...I have it on my watchlist ...as soon as it triggers a TA buy signal I'm in boots and all. I hope I won't be buying yours BB.

Disc: hold some PRC ...just to keep me focused

[Hoop]

Not a good attempt to justify PRC's sp performance (or lack thereof).

Apple for apple (coal to coal) comparison :

GCL 5.07 6.10 +20%
MCC 6.99 8.07 +15%
FLX 5.34 17.60 +229%
PRC 1.00 0.98 -2%

*comparison does not include dividends paid.

If anything, PRC should outperform the above as risks should now be out of the way.


Quote..."Not a good attempt to justify PRC's sp performance (or lack thereof)..."
yes it is ....Balance it aint a coal mine yet..has to produce and sell that black stuff first before you rate it with those stocks you listed.

[Grand Uber]

Speaking about negative sentiment pulling down a share price...I have it on my watchlist ...as soon as it triggers a TA buy signal I'm in boots and all. I hope I won't be buying yours BB.

Disc: hold some PRC ...just to keep me focused

I agree with your points Hoop

I hold a few of these and intend to buy more if the share price dips lower

The company has hit speedbumps which intelligent long term investors would have factored into their purchasing decisions.

We all know that once they hit production and get things running smoothly the shareprice will appreciate and no doubt dividend payments will begin.

The only thing im worrying about is major unpredictable fault that means production will never be met or production will be substantially lower than expected. I think that this will be unlikley, but its a risk I have factored into my decision to hold.

Go PRC!

[Balance]

Quote..."Not a good attempt to justify PRC's sp performance (or lack thereof)..."
yes it is ....Balance it aint a coal mine yet..has to produce and sell that black stuff first before you rate it with those stocks you listed.

No wonder PRC's management think they can spin the way they do!!!!

Enjoy!

[Xerof]

Bit tough comparing the issue price with current as there have been 2 rights issues inbetween at 90 and 70, plus the free options.

I also maintain PRC on my watchlist with a view to re-enter (not neccessarily at a lower price, but once a decent buy signal is given again)

Disc: past holder, but very pleased with my returns on PRC

[Excelsior]

I heard from an educated source that compared to most projects there were comparatively few surface boreholes to get a good handle on seam thickness. On that basis he said he felt it was too risky a venture to invest in and the million tons per year was optimistic. Could seam be so thin in places that header can't get through?

[Grand Uber]

Not that I rate analyst forcasts but

McDouall Stuart updated research on 3 September 2009 with a 12 month price target of NZ$1.61 and a Hold recommendation.

UBS has updated its research report on 1 September 2009 and maintains a BUY recommendation

Forsyth Barr updated research on 26 August 2009 with a 12 month price target of NZ$1.37 and a HOLD recommendation

Goldman Sachs JBWere updated research on 25 August 2009 with a 12 month price target of NZ$1.25 and a BUY recommendation

[Balance]

Not that I rate analyst forcasts but

McDouall Stuart updated research on 3 September 2009 with a 12 month price target of NZ$1.61 and a Hold recommendation.

UBS has updated its research report on 1 September 2009 and maintains a BUY recommendation

Forsyth Barr updated research on 26 August 2009 with a 12 month price target of NZ$1.37 and a HOLD recommendation

Goldman Sachs JBWere updated research on 25 August 2009 with a 12 month price target of NZ$1.25 and a BUY recommendation

Wow! Must listen to these analysts' reports and load up.

But before I do, do I recall the same firms coming up with price targets of over $2.00 a year ago? Ouch to those who followed their recommendations.

[whirly]

AbN Amro from 28 August 2008 PRC=price $1.89 target=3.87 likewise NZO price $1.58 rated a buy with a target of 2.44

Fortunately I decided to DIY rather than go with a broker who could provide this in depth analysis for me.

[whirly]

BTW Greymouth pubs are not alive with the buzz of where the PRC price may be headed. Most don't care, there is more money to be made buying up old dumps to rent out to new immigrants at exorbitant rates.

[kizame]

It is very disappointing to put so much hope into a stock,have a presumed price target,a return on your investment,and a time scale for this to occur,and then have the continual let downs this co. seems to produce.
This thread tends to suggest the majority of you are holders,therefore I am presuming you still have some sort of faith that this co. is eventually going to deliver,and some very good returns.

Hoop brings back the reality of the situation with his post.

I am not a holder but enjoy reading what posters more knowledgable than myself bring to the table.
In my view if you are unhappy with the investment at the current time,get out and either wait till things are clear,or find yourself a better investment at the current time.There are lots of stocks out there already earning,and with great growth prospects that are trending up.

[Grand Uber]

Wow! Must listen to these analysts' reports and load up.

But before I do, do I recall the same firms coming up with price targets of over $2.00 a year ago? Ouch to those who followed their recommendations.

Theres no debate from me that analyst forcasts are hopeless, and there is large amounts of statistical evidence to back that up. But with all reports being positive it must give the price a certain level of support provided there is no more bad news coming up.

The trouble with the machinery has been fixed at the cost of the supplier and all three miners should be operating this month. As hoop said above you have to expect these sorts of delays with a high risk operation like this.

By no means am I agreeing with the buy calls on those reports at this stage but the way people are talking about PRC on here would suggest that the mine will never reach operational status, the management have failed the shareholders and this is doomed to head into receivership.

Personally I think thats a little ridiculous, hence why I am happy to hold through these rough patches (although I previously sold at $2.30 to take profit and have re-entered).

If your investment horizon is 6-12 months and you don't hold diversified porfolios then its probably not the best bet. But for someone who holds for longer than 1 or 2 years I think we will be seeing basement levels on the price over the next 4-6 month period. But no one can predict the future

I can see things from the managements perspective, perceived transperency or not, information leakage in an operation like this would be near impossible to stop. Ive seen much worse cases of undelivered expectations in my time investing.

Keep the negative views coming guys, maybe we will discover something none of us realised

[Billy Boy]

It is very disappointing to put so much hope into a stock,have a presumed price target,a return on your investment,and a time scale for this to occur,and then have the continual let downs this co. seems to produce.
This thread tends to suggest the majority of you are holders,therefore I am presuming you still have some sort of faith that this co. is eventually going to deliver,and some very good returns.

Hoop brings back the reality of the situation with his post.

I am not a holder but enjoy reading what posters more knowledgable than myself bring to the table.
In my view if you are unhappy with the investment at the current time,get out and either wait till things are clear,or find yourself a better investment at the current time.There are lots of stocks out there already earning,and with great growth prospects that are trending up.

Thankyou Kizame
This post tends to some up the situation

"Hoop brings back the reality of the situation with his post."
Correct... Tks for your work Hoop :)

And here's my bitch !!!
Why do management find it so hard to keep good discriptive disclosures
from the Share holds. I refer to my previous post(s).
"Sh*t Happens" and this project is no exception. So why run
around the bushes. Get out into the open and say it as it is without
smugging. Half a story late, only serve's to confuse, allow scept-
icisum and mistrust to creep in.
BB

[Balance]

AbN Amro from 28 August 2008 PRC=price $1.89 target=3.87 likewise NZO price $1.58 rated a buy with a target of 2.44

Fortunately I decided to DIY rather than go with a broker who could provide this in depth analysis for me.

How wrong can you get?

[winner69]

Everybody raves on that the price of coking coal at US$130 is much higher than that assumed in the IPO documents ... good stuff that means PRC should make heaps

But you very little about the latest views of what total production costs are going to be ... not even relative to the IPO figure.

Fair guess that productions costs are rising as times goes by? Getting close to what they might get for the coal? Who knows but I would be interested to know

Even the analyst reports don't make mention of this but to make such radical changes in their valuations they probably don't have any idea anyway

[winner69]

How wrong can you get?

Looks like the mehodology is take the current shareprice and add 30% and call it a HOLD or a BUY .... and change all their spreadsheets etc

Always wondered why you would want to hold if the target share price is 30% higher than what it is ... doesn't that suggest it should be a buy?

[Balance]

Hi all
I emailed Pike today, theres no foundation to Aoteas rumour, here is what they replied....

No there is nothing in any of that. I spent half my day today in
inductions with new employees and we have a whole bunch starting in
early September too. We are still very much going forward.

Regards

Peter Whittall

This was a response by PRC on 21 August. 3 days later, the company announces the 7 months' delay to coal shipment.

So much for "we are still very much go forward".

Why would you add on more employees? More costs. Throwing more $$$ at the problem?

[Balance]

Close to 290,000 to sell in Australia at 97.5c. Good buying for those who still believe.

[Billy Boy]

Nice little e-mail from Prc today....
http://www.pike.co.nz/
Seams things are going right 4 them...
might have to hold my shares a little longer ;)

[Sideshow Bob]

Can you please post BB? I had a look on their website, but couldn't see anything....

[Dr_Who]

The question now is, do you believe anything that comes out of management's mouth?

[Billy Boy]

Can you please post BB? I had a look on their website, but couldn't see anything....
http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/newreply.php?do=newreply&p=274339

[Robomo]

Hi SSB Is this what you are after?

http://www.pike.co.nz/files/analyst_reports/McDouall_Stuart_2009-09-03_PRC.pdf

[Billy Boy]

Hi SSB Is this what you are after?

http://www.pike.co.nz/files/analyst_reports/McDouall_Stuart_2009-09-03_PRC.pdf

Cheers Robomo :):)

[fabs]

Is this slowly turning into a Lemon?

[Baddarcy]

Quiet the opposite i believe. The words "gold mine" come to mind actually.

Sure they have had more than their fair share of problems over the last couple of years the facts are there is a lot of high value coal there in the ground and at some point it will start flowing. (interesting note that they had 10,000 tonnes of the stuff sitting in their yard at present)

Once they finally (emphasis on finally :-) start getting some decent flows out of the ground this share is going to skyrocket.

My stategy is simple, buy now and wait, they are now talking Jan to Mar before they hit full production. Is that really that long to wait?

Lets be honest if they hit production of 66,666 tonnes per month by March what is that going to do to their share price, $2? $3? Is it really that hard waiting 5 months for a 100% - 200% ROI?

We just need to be patient and wait, something most investors are not very good at.

Conversley they could have another rock fall and us investors will be screwed, but that is what the sharemarket is all about, if you don't like it get a term deposit instead :-)

[Balance]

Quiet the opposite i believe. The words "gold mine" come to mind actually.

Sure they have had more than their fair share of problems over the last couple of years the facts are there is a lot of high value coal there in the ground and at some point it will start flowing. (interesting note that they had 10,000 tonnes of the stuff sitting in their yard at present)

Once they finally (emphasis on finally :-) start getting some decent flows out of the ground this share is going to skyrocket.

My stategy is simple, buy now and wait, they are now talking Jan to Mar before they hit full production. Is that really that long to wait?

Lets be honest if they hit production of 66,666 tonnes per month by March what is that going to do to their share price, $2? $3? Is it really that hard waiting 5 months for a 100% - 200% ROI?

We just need to be patient and wait, something most investors are not very good at.

Conversley they could have another rock fall and us investors will be screwed, but that is what the sharemarket is all about, if you don't like it get a term deposit instead :-)

Not long to wait? Ask those who have been waiting for 2 years!

[Baddarcy]

We can but look to the future, the past is the past. I think calling it a lemon is fairly wide of the mark.

Lets just hope i'm right with my crystal ball gazing :).

[JMJ1202]

Note the final comment from Citi commodities analyst: Coking coal to rise to US$200 per tonne in Japanese financial year 2010



PREDICTING recent Chinese coking coal import demand is here to stay, Anglo American wants to double its global coking coal production by boosting output from its Queensland mines.

The mining giant, which produces most of its 15 million tonnes a year of coking coal from Australia, said it wanted to increase production to 30 million tonnes a year by 2018.

Expanded production beyond 2011 is yet to be sanctioned, but the company is targeting an average 12 per cent annual increase in output each year until then, Anglo Coal boss and former Gold Fields chief executive Ian Cockerill said in a presentation in London.

"Anglo's future seaborne metallurgical (coking) coal growth is focused on consolidating around its existing clusters in the highest-quality metallurgical coal areas of Queensland's Bowen Basin," he said. Australia is the world's biggest exporter of coking coal, mostly from mines in the Bowen Basin of eastern Queensland, which has the world's lowest production cost.

Demand for coking coal, which is used to make steel, slumped late last year with the global financial crisis. But a surprise boost in demand this year from China, where many domestic mines were closed for cost, environmental and safety reasons, saved Australian miners from another round of production cuts.

Demand from China, which had been a net exporter, was treated cautiously at first. But recently, coking coal exporters, including the world's biggest, BHP Billiton, have become more confident the nation's imports can be sustained.

Mr Cockerill said China's demand for seaborne coal was expected to grow at a rate of about 6 per cent a year over the next decade. Most of Anglo's growth will come from previously flagged, but not approved, projects at Moranbah South and Grosvenor, west of Mackay, which have the potential to produce a combined 10 million tonnes a year of coking coal. The remaining 5 million tonnes of capacity would probably come from expansions at its CapCoal and Foxleigh mines, which are further south and can now produce a combined 10 million tonnes of coal a year.

China's imports of Australian coking coal dropped 29 per cent in August, according to Chinese customs data reported this week by Dow Jones Newswires.

Despite the fall, however, it was the third-highest month for Australian imports this year and nine times higher than a year earlier.

The steelmaking giant imported 2.39 million tonnes of Australian coking coal last month, down from record rates of about 3.2 million tonnes in June and July. The drop indicates that some of the higher-cost Chinese coking coalmines are starting to increase production, but analysts do not expect domestic production there to be able to flood the market.

"China's production is increasing, but so is demand," Citi commodities analyst Alan Heap said this week.

Citi raised its coking coal price forecast for the 2010 Japanese financial year from $US140 a tonne to $US200.

[Balance]

We can but look to the future, the past is the past. I think calling it a lemon is fairly wide of the mark.

Lets just hope i'm right with my crystal ball gazing :).

When an investment goes sour, it is a lemon?

When a car you buy keeps breaking down, it is a lemon?

Would you buy something that keeps promising but does not deliver?

[Baddarcy]

In this case yes.

To use your analogy about the car, this car has got $11 billion of coal in the boot. The car would have to be in fairly bad order to walk away from.

[LJB]

In this case yes.

To use your analogy about the car, this car has got $11 billion of coal in the boot. The car would have to be in fairly bad order to walk away from.

Nice analogy.

[Balance]

In this case yes.

To use your analogy about the car, this car has got $11 billion of coal in the boot. The car would have to be in fairly bad order to walk away from.

Ah, that's why PRC management and directors behave the way that they do.

You sure the coal is there in recoverable quantity? Taking the company's word for it, are we?

[Baddarcy]

Ah, that's why PRC management and directors behave the way that they do.

You sure the coal is there in recoverable quantity? Taking the company's word for it, are we?

Basically yes :),

But if it's not, PRC have done a fantastic scam job. They have managed to scam ANZ Bank and Liberty Harbor into lending them millions of dollars, Crown Minerals into giving them a mining licence, Kiwi Rail into upgrading the rail tracks, Lyttleton Port into upgrading port facilites, 2 Indian Steel mills, NZO&G, ACC and a whole pile of Kiwi's and Aussies into investing in them.

[Grand Uber]

Are you shorting PRC yet Balance?

[Balance]

Basically yes :),

But if it's not, PRC have done a fantastic scam job. They have managed to scam ANZ Bank and Liberty Harbor into lending them millions of dollars, Crown Minerals into giving them a mining licence, Kiwi Rail into upgrading the rail tracks, Lyttleton Port into upgrading port facilites, 2 Indian Steel mills, NZO&G, ACC and a whole pile of Kiwi's and Aussies into investing in them.

How do you explain 2 years of delay?

ANZ has not lent them a cent - the loan is contingent upon production. Liberty Harbor is a fully secured loan with equity upside - a very good deal for Liberty harbor. Which is why I believe they will extend but ratchet up the interest rate gain.

Nothing to do with a scam. Look at Australia and look at Lihir Gold - they wrote off A$300m when Ballarat gold mine proved to be too difficult to mine after great initial promise.

[Balance]

I'd say NZOG is pretty sure :rolleyes:

Of course NZOG is sure. They were also sure of the production date - 2 years ago.

[Dr_Who]

I dont believe anything that comes out of PRC managements mouth. Bunch of BS artists.

[Balance]

I dont believe anything that comes out of PRC managements mouth. Bunch of BS artists.

There are those who want to believe.

Then there are those so donkey deep they have to be convince themselves so they believe.

2 years of delays and tens of millions in costs blow-outs. They have to believe, don't they?

For the record, I am neutral on PRC.

[Nitaa]

For the record, I am neutral on PRC.No frigging way. Balance is neutral? Thats like the tyre calling the condom rubber

[Sideshow Bob]

I dont believe anything that comes out of PRC managements mouth. Bunch of BS artists.

I think we should have a 'Dr Who meter' for PRC. It use to be 'Negative', then it changed to 'Bullish', and in recent weeks it's gone to 'Angry'......

:)

[Sideshow Bob]

Hi SSB Is this what you are after?

http://www.pike.co.nz/files/analyst_reports/McDouall_Stuart_2009-09-03_PRC.pdf

Thanks Robomo - I was just starting to think it was just me!! ;)

[Balance]

No frigging way. Balance is neutral? Thats like the tyre calling the condom rubber

Neither a seller nor a buyer am I. Correct me if that's not neutral?

[Balance]

I think we should have a 'Dr Who meter' for PRC. It use to be 'Negative', then it changed to 'Bullish', and in recent weeks it's gone to 'Angry'......

:)

Dr Who was one who believed but obviously got burnt by his belief?

Or is he just a trader who got on the wrong side? Now he is short?

[Dr_Who]

Hahaha... burnt is too strong of a word. :D

Only bought a very small amount to play with. A change in the back pocket in my overall portfolio. Lucky most of my Aussie resources are up over 100% to offset a small drop in PRC as my entry price is pretty good.

I am just one of those that are passionate about the companies I invest in. I hate to see a company with so much potential runned by a bunch of amateurs who release BS stories to the media to turn around only a few weeks later with something completely different.

PRC will be a good buy someday, but not just yet. I still think some heads should roll at top level management to bring back confidence and assurance that the right people are running the show.

Management is the obstacle to this potentially great project. Some much potential, with so little substance behind it.

[Nitaa]

Neither a seller nor a buyer am I. Correct me if that's not neutral?If you hate a company or its management like you do with Pike then you probably will never buy into it. Therefore how can you ever sell something you dont own? Unless you are shorting.

The point i am getting here is that you have never ever been a fan of this company and have only ever bagged it. Hardly neutral or Balanced dont you think? So tell me, where is your gripe or issues with this company? Is it will management, Gordon Ward or what? Too many inuendos no no hard core facts.

discl. non shareholder

[Balance]

Hahaha... burnt is too strong of a word. :D

Only bought a very small amount to play with. A change in the back pocket in my overall portfolio. Lucky most of my Aussie resources are up over 100% to offset a small drop in PRC as my entry price is pretty good.

I am just one of those that are passionate about the companies I invest in. I hate to see a company with so much potential runned by a bunch of amateurs who release BS stories to the media to turn around only a few weeks later with something completely different.

PRC will be a good buy someday, but not just yet. I still think some heads should roll at top level management to bring back confidence and assurance that the right people are running the show.

Management is the obstacle to this potentially great project. Some much potential, with so little substance behind it.

Dr, you are kidding us right?

the post below was written by you before PRC came out with the last production delay. What are you actually telling us?????



I ve trying to tell this to everyone a few post back.

PRC is under valued compared to other Aussie coal miners. Ok they may have some teething problems and delays in tunneling, but that is expected with all major construction projects. Those that are familiar with construction knows to expect delays and teething problems in any project of this size.

I put my money where my mouth is and had bought more shares when it was $1.12 last week.

[Dr_Who]

Balance, you must be one of those guys that talks alot about your wins and never talk about your loses. If I have the time to bother digging into your cupboard, I am sure I will find alot of skeletons. Fortunately, I am not one who can be bothered.

I do enjoy finding good firms to invest. Like all good investors, we do have our dogs, but overall I have a good portfolio with good capital gains.

As I have stated, I see alot of potential in PRC and it is undervalued compared to the Aussie ones. Just a real shame the market have no confidences in management, hence the low sp.

And a good day to you also.

[winner69]

Dr - how robust is that $100 / ton production cost figure used by most to value this

Its a figure that never seems to change very much in spite of changed circumstances

At $100 would that make them a pretty efficient producer?

[Balance]

Balance, you must be one of those guys that talks alot about your wins and never talk about your loses. If I have the time to bother digging into your cupboard, I am sure I will find alot of skeletons. Fortunately, I am not one who can be bothered.

I do enjoy finding good firms to invest. Like all good investors, we do have our dogs, but overall I have a good portfolio with good capital gains.

As I have stated, I see alot of potential in PRC and it is undervalued compared to the Aussie ones. Just a real shame the market have no confidences in management, hence the low sp.

And a good day to you also.

Dr, no need to be defensive. I was just responding to the contradictory statements you make on PRC which was picked up by Sideshow Bob.

Question - how can it be undervalued when it is not even producing any coal?

[Corporate]

Question - how can it be undervalued when it is not even producing any coal?

I was under the impression coal was being produced and stock piled? I'm just on the sidelines though and definitely not in PRC.

[Balance]

I was under the impression coal was being produced and stock piled? I'm just on the sidelines though and definitely not in PRC.

They are indeed stockpiling - one ton every few days, it looks like. To get to 1m tonnes a year, PRC will have to do 2.75t per day.

Something smells. And it's not methane or coal gas.

[the machine]

They are indeed stockpiling - one ton every few days, it looks like. To get to 1m tonnes a year, PRC will have to do 2.75t per day.

Something smells. And it's not methane or coal gas.



probably have to do more than 2.75t per day.

annual result due by sept 30 should clarify way forward
[yes until next unexpected delay some could rightfully say]

m

[Baddarcy]

They are indeed stockpiling - one ton every few days, it looks like. To get to 1m tonnes a year, PRC will have to do 2.75t per day.

Something smells. And it's not methane or coal gas.

Sorry Balance but your maths is a bit off, they would need to do 2,740 tonnes per day to get to 1m tonnes per year.

Also if they had got 10,000 already at a rate of 1 tone every few days that would mean they were mining since 1998.... or you got your calcs wrong.

[Balance]

Sorry Balance but your maths is a bit off, they would need to do 2,740 tonnes per day to get to 1m tonnes per year.

Also if they had got 10,000 already at a rate of 1 tone every few days that would mean they were mining since 1998.... or you got your calcs wrong.

Good catch - my maths is way off! I blame it of course on my Maths teacher and the calculator.

2,740 tonnes per day and it looks like they are doing less than 1,000 every few days.

That must be bs we are smelling from PRC?

[digger]

Good catch - my maths is way off! I blame it of course on my Maths teacher and the calculator.

2,740 tonnes per day and it looks like they are doing less than 1,000 every few days.

That must be bs we are smelling from PRC?

The timing of the cals are way out here. Even in the initial IPO it was not said that by now PIKE would be mining at a rate of a million tonnes a year . There have been several well reported delays so the 1000 tonnes every few days while disappointing is about what to expect.Staff and machinery experience all come into a project like this. The newness of the project needs to be considered.
Currently i with a builder both first time experience with this sort of thing are putting up a big shed. The next one will certainly be a lot faster but for me it is a oncers only. For Pike the rate of extracting coal will only get better as the experience will go into the next tonnes and it being a retititions thing experience will soon play a big part in what they are doing.
I have very few shares in Pike except through NZO but expect PIKE will in the end be a big and steady winner. I think you can say that PIKE has pasted peak problem and will gradually improve from here . Gaining experience and the firming of the price of coal all say that down the road things will turn for the better.
So if you are thinking of buying in get Balance who has no holding in PIKE to give a few more blasts and you could well pick up some real cheap shares in this company.

[Balance]

The timing of the cals are way out here. Even in the initial IPO it was not said that by now PIKE would be mining at a rate of a million tonnes a year . There have been several well reported delays so the 1000 tonnes every few days while disappointing is about what to expect.Staff and machinery experience all come into a project like this. The newness of the project needs to be considered.
Currently i with a builder both first time experience with this sort of thing are putting up a big shed. The next one will certainly be a lot faster but for me it is a oncers only. For Pike the rate of extracting coal will only get better as the experience will go into the next tonnes and it being a retititions thing experience will soon play a big part in what they are doing.
I have very few shares in Pike except through NZO but expect PIKE will in the end be a big and steady winner. I think you can say that PIKE has pasted peak problem and will gradually improve from here . Gaining experience and the firming of the price of coal all say that down the road things will turn for the better.
So if you are thinking of buying in get Balance who has no holding in PIKE to give a few more blasts and you could well pick up some real cheap shares in this company.

Digger matey, I prefer miners with real expertise and track record.

2 years' delay point to something very wrong. I am happy to buy in once the mine is proven and pay a higher sp.

Happy for others to take the risk of PRC becoming a Ballarat Gold - uneconomic recovery so mine closed down after A$300m spent by Lihir. Something is just not right with PRC.

[Dr_Who]

Question - how can it be undervalued when it is not even producing any coal?

I dont have to time to type out all the numbers on here. I am sure as a intelligent fella yourself who can do no wrong can do your own numbers.

What I can say is that the Chinese and others have bought into a number of undervalued miners that are not currently producing eg: IRN, GBG, KZL.. etc. Valuation on a miner is based on the reserve or potential reserve in the ground.

[blockhead]

Ad Feedback Stuff Home Timaru Herald
Kia ora, Guest[Settings] [Logout] [ sign in] News Sport Business Features World Opinion Contact Us Photos|Multimedia Events Spot price 'expected to soar'
By ALAN WOOD - The Press Last updated 05:00 29/09/2009SharePrint Text Size
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Pike River Coal says some analysts predict the spot price of hard coking coal could go above US$200 a tonne next year in a positive indicator for next year's contract coal price.

Pike chairman John Dow said the predictions that coking coal would go up from the current spot price, of US$160 to US$170 a tonne, should flow into a higher contract price.

An Asian economic recovery was helping prices, he said. Pike shares yesterday closed 1c higher at 99c.

US dollar-based contract prices are set once a year usually in negotiations between the big Queensland producers and their big Japanese customers.

The talks take place in February and March, and others in the sector then use the price set as a benchmark. The existing price for Pike in the period to March 31, 2010 is US$128 a tonne.

"We've seen reports that there might be prices over US$200 [a tonne] in the next Japanese fiscal year...

"You would think that with [the spot price] significantly above this year's contract [price] that next year's contract would be more reflective of the spot."

Pike was still considering whether to make smaller coal shipments to its Indian shareholders Saurashtra Fuels Private and Gujarat NRE Coal (NSW) Pty, before a delayed shipment of 60,000 tonnes to a Japanese customer in March.

"We have talked internally about doing smaller shipments earlier but we won't be in a position to decide on any of that probably for a month or so," Dow said.

Pike had several smaller contracts. "It's just a question of juggling the order in which the shipments are done."

Dow said it was not until Pike got into full planned annual production of up to 1 million tonnes of coal a year in the 12 months to mid 2011 that it would have coal available to sell into the spot market.

It had to satisfy delivery of existing contracts with customers before then. "We've contracted to sell 70 per cent of our production.

"We've kept 30 per cent of it uncommitted so we can either add to longer-term contracts or deliver it into the spot market," Dow said.

Pike was expecting German manufacturer Wirth to be in New Zealand early next month to help deal with an issue with their coal-cutting machines. The tracks on the machines had been breaking, although this problem had not been as bad recently, Dow said.

The operations of the mine had settled down to more of a steady state with a better performance out of both the equipment and new people, and further upside was expected, he said.

"They're not all resolved yet, we've got to get the new tracks on the continuous miners, but ... we've got the German supplier at their expense to provide new tracks, and they will be in the country next week."

Pike was also waiting for the laboratory test results in the next month from the this year's drilling of core holes in the Paparoa Ranges into the Brunner and Paparoa seams.

Ad Feedback Those tests were on the metallurgical suitability of the coal for industrial use.

"When that's finalised and and we've got a better sense of what that means in quality then there'll be an announcement about that."

The test drilling into the lower Paparoa seam found three potentially mineable seams of low sulphur hard coking coal totalling nine metres in thickness.

"That's encouraging, but one [test] hole doesn't make a deposit," Dow said.

[JoeBlogs]

I think things are pretty much on track. Of course this is still relatively high risk, but as I've said before, that's what makes the potential rewards so huge. I'm confident enough to have my entire holding in options, because I really beleive they will hit a buck some time in 2010. Only time will tell if I'm right.

I can't see why people find it so difficult to believe this mine is capable of 1,000 kt per year. They're producing at about 10% of that now, but the figure hinges around hydro-mining which of course is yet to start. I really think some people here are set to miss a golden opportunity - good things take time.

[winner69]

Looks like all the dealys could have a silver lining with the talk of high spot prices - black gold eh

[Nitaa]

Looks like all the dealys could have a silver lining with the talk of high spot prices - black gold ehOverall i have to say dissapointing. Make what you like of it but here is how it reads to me.

-Full production won't happen until at least 2011 maybe 2012 if all goes reasonably well.

-Management have talked about Coking Coal Spot prices which is largely irrelevant. No mention was made by the fact that the $NZ has climbed 45% in the last 6 months. Sort of negates any increases they are talking about.

-The company talked about better performance of both machinery and man but have not disclosed what the production rate is.

Sorry guys but it sounds alarm bells at least short term.

discl. non holder

[blockhead]

Looks like all the dealys could have a silver lining with the talk of high spot prices - black gold eh

Dissapointing to have to glean the information from a newspaper report though, never mind it does indicate positive happenings at the tunnel, that will be reflected in todays price action I suspect

[neopoleII]

""Pike was expecting German manufacturer Wirth to be in New Zealand early next month to help deal with an issue with their coal-cutting machines. The tracks on the machines had been breaking, although this problem had not been as bad recently, Dow said.""

once the miners learn to turn on the cutting heads and stop using them as battering rams, the tracks wont break and then mining can really comence...
i do feel for the miners though..... those german manuals are hard to read.

[Hoop]

Overall i have to say dissapointing. Make what you like of it but here is how it reads to me.

-Full production won't happen until at least 2011 maybe 2012 if all goes reasonably well.

-Management have talked about Coking Coal Spot prices which is largely irrelevant. No mention was made by the fact that the $NZ has climbed 45% in the last 6 months. Sort of negates any increases they are talking about.

-The company talked about better performance of both machinery and man but have not disclosed what the production rate is.

Sorry guys but it sounds alarm bells at least short term.

discl. non holder

Coal prices may (not) rise next year ..only negates if the NZ$ stays above 72USc and strengthens further....
Market seems to have factored in all these short term uncertainties at about 98c/share