PRC Pike River Coal

[blockhead]

quote:Originally posted by fish

steve-I have loyal principles and didnt want to cost the company the 1% stamping fee paid to brokers-its a pity the company doesnt repay the loyalty and benefit to them of having shareholders take up the issue

They were commited to take the Shareholders 1st so as to be able to assess the take up rate. The shares not taken (if any) will be allotted elsewhere. They really didn't have a choice if they were to give us a fair go at getting 1:8

[777]

It will be interesting to see what the take up rate will be. I assume this will be announced within a few days.

[shasta]

Just announced on the NZX...

28 June 2007

Pike River Signs $19m Coal Preparation Plant Contract

Pike River Coal Limited has today signed a $19 million contract for the design and construction of the Coal Preparation Plant (CPP), to be developed at the mine site 46 kilometres north-east of Greymouth. The total cost of the Coal Preparation Plant including other necessary equipment is $20 million as budgeted by Pike River.

The Coal Preparation Plant will take raw product delivered from the underground mine via a 10.6 kilometre slurry pipeline, and remove any reject material such as rock. It will wash, grade and stockpile the coal, ready for transport to the port of Greymouth. The design capacity is approximately 1.5 million tonnes of raw product.

The contract was signed with Brightwater PEAT Limited, a joint venture company owned 50% by Brightwater Engineering Limited, a Nelson engineering and construction company - and 50% by Australian owned PEAT (Australia) Pty Limited. PEAT has designed more than 27 CPP's located around the world.

Pike River General Manager, Mines, Peter Whittall says "The Coal Preparation Plant is a brand new installation using well established technologies and processes as well as state of the art plant. Part of the technology will be the installation of an elemental analyser to perform continuous on-line, real time, precise and accurate analysis of the coal moving on the conveyor belt. This gives us a huge advantage when it comes to grading the coal and our ability to maximise our return."

The Coal Preparation Plant can deliver coal of differing grades to four stockpiles located on Pike River owned land, where there is storage capacity for 90,000 tonnes.

The plant will be built over the next 10 months.

Chief Executive Gordon Ward said "The Coal Preparation Plant contract has been signed as signalled in the Prospectus for the Initial Public Offer (IPO) of shares and completes another important step in moving closer to production".

The Pike River IPO to raise a minimum of $65 million through the issue of new shares, closes on 10 July 2007. Pike River shares are expected to list on the NZX and ASX on or around the 20 July 2007.

[boysy]

anyone here think they could have sent out a smaller prospectus i mean they could of funded half of the mining if they didnt send out such a monster though it did have some nice pictures

[Lion]

boysy - they had to comply with the many rules and regulations of the two stock exchanges I believe.

[tim23]

And if it was smaller people would be complaining about lack of info - in the scheme of things its hardly an issue is it?

[boysy]

cheers thanks for clearing that up it looks gud if things do go to plan and the mine starts producing late first quarter of 2008 shud be a good long term investment as long as that dollar goes down and demand for hard coking coal increases as expected

[Toddy]

According to the current government the prospectus was not BIG enough. They should have added possible future government regulation from their crystal ball.


Pike River denies misleading investors

The Pike River Coal company is defending its financial disclosure, after accusations from the Green Party that it is misleading potential investors by playing down the mine's environmental impacts.

Pike River Coal released its prospectus in May, offering 65 million shares in the West Coast operation at $1 each.

But the Green Party co-leader, Jeanette Fitzsimons, says it is not disclosing likely financial liability from greenhouse gas emissions. She says coal-seam methane emissions will be included in climate change regulations, and the company is choosing to ignore that so as not to deter investors

The chief executive of Pike River Coal, Gordon Ward, says the claims have no basis whatsoever. He says the prospectus has been through an extensive due diligence exercise.

Mr Ward says the prospectus makes it very clear that government regulations may change and could affect the company's operations.

[temuk]

Some people just can't admit defeat and the
greens keep banging the same drum in a different chord.

maybe Jeanette might like to get down and check
the methane emmissions-with a candle!!

[morpork]

quote:Originally posted by temuk

Some people just can't admit defeat and the
greens keep banging the same drum in a different chord.

maybe Jeanette might like to get down and check
the methane emmissions-with a candle!!




Sadly,because we do need checks and balances,the Greens will become part of history at the next election,due largely to Sue Bradford and because they lost their greatest asset Rod Donald

[arjay]

To be fair to the Greens they have not made much of a fuss about Pike until now (it was Forest and Bird making all the fuss a couple of years back). I agree with Morpork though - I'm very dissapointed in how the Greens have let Sue Bradford re-direct what was a credible watchdog party into a personal vehicle for social engineering. I suspect Rod Donald may not have had too many issues with Pike River.

[manxman]

Trust Jeanette to stick her ill informed oar in, and impute base motives to people who are trying to do something for New Zealand.

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/section/1/story.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=10448961 is interesting.

There really isn't a methane problem in New Zealand. Methane is converted to carbon dioxide and water by natural and well understood atmospheric processes. Around 1% of all methane emitted each year in the whole planet is oxidized within the New Zealand EEZ. Our methane emissions, whether coal seam gas, bovine belches or Fitzsimons brainfarts, are negligible compared with the amount of methane processed by our atmosphere.

This is not to say we are good or clever, but it does say that there is no more appropriate place in the world to graze ruminant animals, and there is no more appropriate place to mine coal. If not for Pike River, the same amount of coal would be mined elsewhere, where surplus methane processing capacity may not exist.

New Zealand should get massive cash payments under the Kyoto treaty for our absorbtion of methane, and Jeanette Fitzsimons should be applying her efforts to ensure that this happens, instead of badmouthing her own country and the people who are trying to make it tick.

Mx

[temuk]

good comments!

Rod Donald was a loss to the greens and sue b
will do them no good @ election time.

P.S. who was looking after sue's kids when she
was protesting the 81 springbok tour

[digger]

quote:Originally posted by temuk

good comments!

Rod Donald was a loss to the greens and sue b
will do them no good @ election time.

P.S. who was looking after sue's kids when she
was protesting the 81 springbok tour


She smaked the s-h-i-t out of them before hand so they did not darm play up when she off protesting. End of story.

[MPC]

Excellent work by the Pike crew to immediately defute these claims about the amount of Co2 that will be released by mining.
A lot of complaints about NZO have ben about the lack of media releases whether positive or negative so this is a good sign.
Cheers,
MPC

[Mr Tommy]

Sorry, not quite in Pikes league just yet ....

Red-hot demand for coal sparks $8b share-sale plan
5:00AM Wednesday July 04, 2007

China Shenhua Energy is planning the world's biggest share sale by a coalminer to raise as much as US$6.3 ($8.06) billion for expansion as demand for the fuel surges.

The nation's largest coal producer plans to sell up to 1.8 billion yuan-denominated shares in Shanghai.

The Beijing-based company will use the money to expand coal, power and transport operations and for domestic and overseas acquisitions.

China became a net importer of coal for the first time this year because of rising energy needs in the world's fastest- growing major economy, where the fuel generates 78 per cent of electricity.

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/category/story.cfm?c_id=37&objectid=10449399

[bermuda]

China is opening up a new coal fired power station EVERY WEEK!!

[Bling_Bling]

quote:Originally posted by bermuda

China is opening up a new coal fired power station EVERY WEEK!!


No surprise, especially with oil and energy prices at these levels and going higher.

[Mr Tommy]

Pike River Coal downplays eco-concerns - story in stuff today

http://www.stuff.co.nz/4117055a13.html

[Ttops]

Miners leaving for better pay in Australia. Another risk of our high dollar.
http://www.stuff.co.nz/4117634a13.html

[trackers]

quote:Originally posted by Treetops

Miners leaving for better pay in Australia. Another risk of our high dollar.
http://www.stuff.co.nz/4117634a13.html


Another experienced miner, David Davey, said that in the past 18 months, 45 miners had left Spring Creek for better pay in Australia or in other West Coast mines.

[Ttops]

Trackers
Its going to put up the cost of wages as competition increases around Greymouth for experienced miners.

The miners at the entrance to Spring Creek said yesterday the ratio of experienced miners to novices was one to seven – a level they considered unsafe – and crews were rarely fully staffed.

[tsb]

just like our office

[Snow Leopard]

It was not here last Sunday, but it was in the Inbox today (Thursday, 5th July 2007), the PRC prospectus with the little yellow form and an expired deadline.
I will say that it is one of the best photographs of a lump of coal I have ever seen.

[trackers]

quote:Originally posted by Treetops

Trackers
Its going to put up the cost of wages as competition increases around Greymouth for experienced miners.

The miners at the entrance to Spring Creek said yesterday the ratio of experienced miners to novices was one to seven – a level they considered unsafe – and crews were rarely fully staffed.


Ahh yes, good point :)

[Bling_Bling]

I assume with $NZ and coal prices at all time high, I dont think attracting miners from overseas is a major issue.

[duncan macgregor]

quote:Originally posted by Bling_Bling

I assume with $NZ and coal prices at all time high, I dont think attracting miners from overseas is a major issue.
I had the first hand experience of that in my past. I left a construction camp in NZ in 1967 and started a new job in PortHead in west Australia at exactly three times the hourly rate paid in NZ. On top of that the food they served up was far superior. I was a qualified carpenter, single, and used to run the gambling schools in those days, so know all about mining workers, who were paid about equal to what i was on. I think the miners would be stupid to work at less than the Australian miners. Macdunk

[trackers]

Have to say, pretty damn impressed with the ongoing disclosures so far..


quote:
Pike River Coal Limited PRC 6 Jul, 2007, 16:23 MINE Pike River Mine Potential Greenhouse Gas Emissions
Full Text of Announcement
6 July 2007

Pike River Mine - Potential Greenhouse Gas Emissions

Pike River Coal Limited (Pike River) provides the following additional information in respect of potential carbon dioxide equivalent emissions (Co2E) arising from fugitive methane gas emissions from the Pike River mine.

As advised to NZX and ASX on Tuesday 3 July 2007, Pike River estimates emissions from methane gas from the mine at approximately 1.4 million tonnes over the mine life. The Brunner coal seam at Pike River is exposed to the atmosphere along the entire western escarpment which has resulted in considerably lower methane gas levels than is commonly found in underground mines. Total emissions could be reduced to as low as 184,000 tonnes if all methane is captured, burnt and therefore converted to carbon dioxide (depending on the economics and regulatory environment at the time).

The Minister Responsible For Climate Change Issues (Hon. David Parker) announced on 8 May 2007 that the Government is developing and introducing a policy regarding an emissions trading system (ETS). As the policy is currently being designed and many details will have to be considered, it is not possible at this stage to provide an assessment of any potential impact of such a policy on Pike River or any reliable estimate of what costs, if any, might be incurred by Pike River in respect of Co2E.

However, the Directors of Pike River do not consider that those potential Co2E costs are likely to be material in the context of the Pike River project. If the final ETS was to result in a cost of Co2E of $15 per tonne1 (current Treasury estimates are approximately $13 per tonne2) and all of that cost was to be visited on Pike River, the potential liability for Pike River could range from $0.15 to $1.11 per tonne of coal mined each year depending on the steps taken to mitigate those potential costs. This compares to the annual operating costs per tonne of Pike River coal mined each year of $77 per tonne (estimated life of mine average), independently assessed by Behre Dolbear Associates Pty Limited (BDA) and included in the NZ Prospectus and NZ Investment Statement and Australian Prospectus. BDA have also stated that the annual operating costs are considered accurate to within 10-15% (equivalent to $8 to $12 per tonne).

The Directors intend to ensure that Pike River's business continues to evolve consistent with developments in the climate change policy context and good environmental practice.

1. Climate Change - Challenges for New Zealand in an Economic and Wider Context, John Whitehead, Secretary to the Treasury, 23 June 2007 - carbon price US$9.65/tonne.
2. Table - Kyoto Liability calculated for and Reported in the Financial Statements of the Government of New Zealand - carbon price US$9.65/t, NZ $13.04/t.

[tim23]

Bet you are still single in 2007!

[Paddie]

quote:Originally posted by tim23

Bet you are still single in 2007!


Grow up.

Paddie

[tim23]

Who are you - his protector? I enjoyed it.

[duncan macgregor]

quote:Originally posted by tim23

Bet you are still single in 2007!
If it was me you were referring to no im not still single. I come back to nz got married still with the same lady after 32 years have grandchildren etc etc, The idea is to attack the mesage not the messenger or get put down as a woop. macdunk

[troyvdh]

are you blokes related to paris....

[Hoop]

Interesting article about a website reported by the Waikato Times this morning http://www.breathingearth.net/

This website is a world similation of how long the world (or country) takes to emit 1000 tonnes of CO2.

I pointed the mouse cursor over a few countries and :

USA emits 1000 tonnes of CO2 every 5.4 seconds
China..............................9.2 seconds
NZ................................15.5 minutes

In perpective even the Greenies overexaggerated claim of 6.8 M tonnes of CO2 emission over Pikes lifetime (18 years?) is very very meagre.

I have calculated it out once Pike is in production to being
Pike..............................23.2 hours (Jeanettes est)
Pike...............................4.7 days (Pikes est)

So when Pike comes into production NZ emission will be
NZ.................................15.50 minutes(pre Pike production)
NZ.................................15.46 minutes (using Pike est)

Now remember Pike said that without mining the coal there is natural seepage of CO2, so the 15.46 minutes is an overestimate :D:D

From the time it has taken me to write this post the website (breathing Earth) has said the world has emitted 2,438,000 tonnes of CO2. [:0][:0]

[Bling_Bling]

You get more CO2 emission from the cows and sheep fart. :D

[blockhead]

Reuters report in todays Timaru Herald

"The PRCC IPO looks likely to close oversubscribed market sources say" also goes on to say it is likely the 20 million extra shares available is likely to be taken up.

Good for us NOG and Pike holders I would say !

[the machine]

quote:Originally posted by blockhead

Reuters report in todays Timaru Herald

"The PRCC IPO looks likely to close oversubscribed market sources say" also goes on to say it is likely the 20 million extra shares available is likely to be taken up.

Good for us NOG and Pike holders I would say !


was just wondering about prc ipo and you have more than satisfied my thoughts.
question now is will nzo priority allocations be scaled back.
would be ironic if they were scaled back and in the end the extra 20 million were not fully taken up.

m

[tim23]

You would assume priority pool would not be scaled back and that public pool would be?

[the machine]

quote:Originally posted by tim23

You would assume priority pool would not be scaled back and that public pool would be?


One would hope so.

A successful PRC IPO should flow onto NZO sp - by how much is the question.
IMO NZO sp should increase by minimum 10c nzo - maybe 20c if lucky as result of successful PRC IPO.

M

[corporateraider]

The Machine, What would you quantify as a sucessful IPO?

[the machine]

quote:Originally posted by corporateraider

The Machine, What would you quantify as a sucessful IPO?


List fully oversubscribed @ a 5% increase in prc sp.

M

[shasta]

Machine

This might be what you are after...

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/section/3/story.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=10450177

The $65 million initial public offering for Pike River Coal is set to close oversubscribed.

A market source said yesterday the offer for 65 million shares at $1 each, due to close on Tuesday, had an option for 20 million additional shares which was likely to be tapped.

The Pike River coal mine is being floated by energy explorer New Zealand Oil and Gas, which will retain 34.6 per cent of the company, while Indian coal companies Gujarat NRE Coke and Saurashtra will hold 20.6 per cent.

Should NZO take up its options & convertible notes it will end up with 36% of PRC ;)

Ya gotta love the "Market sources" comment, it's not a matter of national security!

[the machine]

quote:Originally posted by shasta

Machine

This might be what you are after...

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/section/3/story.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=10450177

The $65 million initial public offering for Pike River Coal is set to close oversubscribed.

A market source said yesterday the offer for 65 million shares at $1 each, due to close on Tuesday, had an option for 20 million additional shares which was likely to be tapped.

The Pike River coal mine is being floated by energy explorer New Zealand Oil and Gas, which will retain 34.6 per cent of the company, while Indian coal companies Gujarat NRE Coke and Saurashtra will hold 20.6 per cent.

Should NZO take up its options & convertible notes it will end up with 36% of PRC ;)

Ya gotta love the "Market sources" comment, it's not a matter of national security!




thanks shasta - to me the article suggests a 15 - 20% increase on listing, inturn nzo up by similar percentage.



time will tell

regards

M

[boysy]

and in the sunday star times a positive article about prc

http://www.stuff.co.nz/sundaystartimes/4119973a6445.html

Must be a good sign for the ipo huh ?

[bermuda]

Thanks Boysy.
This will give NZO a lot more grunt than most investors realise.
I am pleased NZO held on to a piece of the action.

[Bling_Bling]

At Bling said before, it doesnt matter if NZers dont want the IPO, cos the overseas guys will take it off us. They are all in love with commodity stocks now.

You guys need to get yourself a good broker like mine who gave me all the shares I wanted early on. :D But then Bling did put his hands up early.

[boysy]

any bets now as to whats going to happen to the share price say in the first week of listing ?

[corporateraider]

Success of PRC listing
I say that we get Shrewdie to put up a couple of tickets for the next "National Convention" at CHCH as first prize and we run a sweep.

[bermuda]

Bermuda's in First days close $1.11

[boysy]

if its any relavance at all NWF ipo price $1.10 was around $1.30 by end of 1 week lets hope prc can better that

[corporateraider]

First day close of $1.19 for me

[MPC]

First day high of 1.22 and close at 1.17
Cheers,
MPC

[trackers]

$1.13 first day

[the machine]

first day close $1.15

m

[boysy]

optimism lets say 1.22

[BigBob]

first day close $1.09

[Unicorn]

I guess first day close 1.14

on Friday 22 June, effectively last day to send PRC money off, NZO was 1.08 and PPP 27c. My thinking was that oil, with Tui production starting and Hector spud, would out perform coal between then and July 20. This means NZO to be 1.23+, and PPP 31+ on July 20.

[shasta]

Pike to close day 1 on $1.18

[digger]

1-15

[boysy]

well while we are doing this whole guessing price how about u put the date u think the mine will be completed by ?

[manxman]

At last - a serious look at the real cause of global warming.

http://images.ucomics.com/comics/nq/2007/nq070708.gif

[shasta]

quote:Originally posted by boysy

well while we are doing this whole guessing price how about u put the date u think the mine will be completed by ?


Rough guess near the end of Q1 2008.

[Rumplestiltskin]

1.04 A Huge amount of risk has to come out of this Company yet and that will take time.There will better buying opportunities than listing day.
As per usual, here and elsewhere, pre-list hype is alive and well.

[boysy]

as you would suspect im guessing everyone posting comments has already sent there cheques for their intitlement in PRC.

[manxman]

quote:Originally posted by boysy

well while we are doing this whole guessing price how about u put the date u think the mine will be completed by ?


Depends what "completed" means.

The prospectus (Table 1) has full production in calendar year 2009. Essentially hydro-mining is not scheduled to commence until then. All coal extracted in calendar year 2008 will essentially be development work, creating enough space to work, and opening up principal roads. Forecast is for 250000 tonnes in cal 2008, of which a sizeable amount will be absorbed in stocking the supply chain. So early 2009 will see the first substantial revenue. We then should have a going concern, cash flow positive. Maybe dividends in 2010 if the bank is not in too much of a hurry.

On the other hand BDA in section 4.12 reckon that the initial hydro-mining rates forecast are a tad ambitious, so there will be plenty of ammunition for doomsayers.

[Billy Boy]

There is always risk attached with an IPO.
Management of that actual/perceived risk is what matters.
I have bought heaps because it is more profitable to average
down than up. (I'm in for the long term.)
It is one of the few IPO's of late, that gives some protection against the falling NZ$ (it will happen) and inflation. (4%)
The biggest problem we have with the high NZ$ ETC.. is the CARRY TRADE and GOVT SPENDING. Not the housing market, that's a supply & demand thing.
If the OCR rates were put at say 6% the carry trade would die overnight, down would go the NZ$ fast. So would that effect the housing market ?. if so which way ?.
IMO PIKE is a good long term investment, with a good Capitial gain upside. and divvy. And fair degree of saftey
If things do start to go to custard then one can get out quick.
Can't do that with Term Investments. (Bridge Corp etc..!)

Cheers to all
BB

[boysy]

will be interesting to see the tunneling progress for last week but they havnt updated it looking at the last few weeks tunneling results seems as though the conveyer system is working well to increase tunneling speed

[patrick]

$1.27

[ritchie]

could someone plse explain what determines, or who, the opening price re the IPO......if the answer is obvious...I apologise for wasting your time.

But give it too me anyway.


Cheers

[port hills]

quote:Originally posted by ritchie

could someone plse explain what determines, or who, the opening price re the IPO......if the answer is obvious...I apologise for wasting your time.

But give it too me anyway.


Cheers


Like all shares everyday at market open the price is decided by the free market of buyers and sellers. But the contest here is for the first day closing price not opening.


I'll go for $1.14 if you can have the same as someone else.
(sorry Unicorn)

[dsurf]

open $1.10

High $1.21

Close $1.10

[warthog]

hog's view is an open 1.05 inching higher to 1.07 before drifting down to close at 1.02.

[FRED]

Open $1.07

High $1.09

Close $1.04

And we will see it sub $1 at some stage prior to production. After that it will be a ripper.

F

[Bling_Bling]

The NZO share price indicates Pike is gonna have a good listing.

Bling guess the Pike listing price to be around $1.10.

[boysy]

lets all hope so

[boysy]

962 m on 9/07/07 so 42m for the week

[morv]

forward thinking kiwisaver funds buying positions will drive it past 115

[upside_umop]

thought that kiwisaver funds are not invested in anything equity like for around 3 months...?

open 1.10 close 1.09 with profit takers.

[boysy]

you would suspect that many kiwisaver funds wouldnt touch PRC before it starts to produce coal right ?

[tim23]

I think if they are index type funds and the market cap is sufficient they will have to buy PRC and that will go for NOG as well

[Tok3n]

Fisherfund bought Arrow Energy, so its possible.

I assume not many would touch it until its producing.

[corporateraider]

Kiwi Saver funds do not get money for 3 months. End of story!

[boysy]

PRC share offer closed today wonder if all of the 20 milliom oversubsription shares were taken up ?

[trackers]

quote:Originally posted by boysy

PRC share offer closed today wonder if all of the 20 milliom oversubsription shares were taken up ?


I would imagine so

[digger]

quote:Originally posted by boysy

PRC share offer closed today wonder if all of the 20 milliom oversubsription shares were taken up ?


Now that they have got your money things will return to normal. Therefor the answer to your question will be forcoming in----two weeks

[Noodle]

Pike River Coal float set to near $85m
By ALAN WOOD - The Press | Wednesday, 11 July 2007


Pike River Coal says a late flurry of subscriptions for its $65 million-plus initial public offering (IPO) should lift the total towards $85m.


Australians are expected to take up 20 per cent of the offer.

Chairman John Dow said he could not be exact in terms of the total to be raised for the West Coast mine, but it would be near $85m, with Australians taking "probably less than 20%" of that total.

"We won't have final numbers until the end of the day, but its gone very well ... I suspect that we probably will (be close to $85m)," he said.

The split between the take up by New Zealand institutions, and retail investors, including brokerages and individuals, was harder to gauge.

Share registry Computershare still had to compile final figures and give them to Pike, Dow said. None of the new shares went to existing shareholders behind Pike River.

The response from Australian institutional investors towards what will be New Zealand's only listed coal company, had been strong driven by their knowledge of the industry, Dow said.

"They've got a vigorous resources market, and a number of listed coal companies, and they understand the coking coal business quite well."

If the total hits $85m, Pike River's parent, New Zealand Oil and Gas (NZOG), will cut its stake from about 54% to about 30%. The offer closed yesterday, with shares to be allocated on July 17, and listing expected on the New Zealand and Australian sharemarkets on July 20.

Before the IPO, about $65m was put into the project by NZOG and two Indian investors – Saurashtra Fuels and Gujarat NRE Coke – which have deals to buy the coking coal.

The third next stage of the firm's funding programme following the IPO raising would be a $59m to $79m debt raising from a banking syndicate led by Westpac.

"My guess is they'll bring in another bank or other banks. Westpac, of course, are actively involved in financing the transportation chain that takes the coal from mine to market.

"They're involved with the West Coast Coal Company, which we've contracted to take the coal from the mine down to the port and up to New Plymouth and onto overseas ships."

The final financing amount would depend on how close to the $85m was raised through the IPO, with less needed if the float was fully oversubscribed.

"The total is $203m and it's in three more or less equal tranches of initial equity, the IPO and then the debt finance to finish it off," he said.

Pike River's progress on its underground tunnel to the mine's coal deposit remained strong in terms of a week by week "record advances in recent weeks", Dow said.

[Noodle]

NZO
11/07/2007
GENERAL

REL: 1002 HRS New Zealand Oil and Gas Limited

GENERAL: NZO: PIKE RIVER IPO SUCCESSFUL

11 July 2007

PIKE RIVER IPO SUCCESSFUL

New Zealand Oil & Gas Limited ("NZOG") advises the market that there has been
strong support for the Pike River Coal Limited initial public offer (IPO)
which closed yesterday. Subscriptions have substantially exceeded the
minimum 65 million shares on offer.

Andrew McDouall, Managing Director of McDouall Stuart Securities, the lead
manager of the IPO, said "There was strong retail interest from New Zealand
investors and from NZOG shareholders via their entitlement in the issue, and
good institutional interest from New Zealand, Australia and elsewhere
offshore".

David Salisbury, NZOG Chief Executive Officer, said "The successful float of
Pike River is a key step for NZOG as promoter of the float. Together with
our other three building blocks - the Tui development where first oil is due
to flow by the end of this month, the Kupe dev
elopment which is on schedule
for first production in mid 2009 and the company's exploration portfolio -
NZOG is well positioned for further growth."

The exact level of oversubscriptions will be known once all applications have
been processed. A final allotment notice for the IPO is expected early next
week.

ENDS
End CA:00150632 For:NZO Type:GENERAL Time:2007-07-11:10:03:02

[boysy]

In the NZ Herald good press for PRC "Pike River Coal initial public offer, which closed yesterday, had substantially exceeded the minimum 65 million shares on offer".

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/category/62/story.cfm?c_id=62&objectid=10450886

[Unicorn]

quote:Originally posted by Unicorn

I guess first day close 1.14

on Friday 22 June, effectively last day to send PRC money off, NZO was 1.08 and PPP 27c. My thinking was that oil, with Tui production starting and Hector spud, would out perform coal between then and July 20. This means NZO to be 1.23+, and PPP 31+ on July 20.


I would like to revise my original guess, down to 94c.

From the recent announcements it looks like the offer will not be fully subscribed (given that they were after $85M), and that everyone who wanted shares will get them. That leaves quite a few stags, especially the 'preferential' NZO shareholders who thought they were onto a discount, without a pool of potential buyers to sell into.

The recent price action around NZO and PPP (and various exploration activities over the last few years) indicates that the market does not attribute much value until a couple of months out from production/drilling. With PRC not expecting to sell any significant volumes until Q4 2008 it looks like September or October next year might be the time to buy PRC - assuming things run reasonably to plan in the meantime.

[Paddie]

Well said Unicorn.

I have had money tied up in NZO and NZOOD for far too long, and in hind sight could have brought in only a few months ago to make the same gain.

Those who have brought recently have had the potential to make far better use of their dollars.

Paddie[^][^]

[corporateraider]

I bought in 2004 at 30 something cents. That return seems ok to me

[blockhead]

Think Unicorn will be right, there won't be too much fat on listing, if any

[digger]

quote:Originally posted by Unicorn


quote:Originally posted by Unicorn

I guess first day close 1.14

on Friday 22 June, effectively last day to send PRC money off, NZO was 1.08 and PPP 27c. My thinking was that oil, with Tui production starting and Hector spud, would out perform coal between then and July 20. This means NZO to be 1.23+, and PPP 31+ on July 20.


I would like to revise my original guess, down to 94c.

From the recent announcements it looks like the offer will not be fully subscribed (given that they were after $85M), and that everyone who wanted shares will get them. That leaves quite a few stags, especially the 'preferential' NZO shareholders who thought they were onto a discount, without a pool of potential buyers to sell into.

The recent price action around NZO and PPP (and various exploration activities over the last few years) indicates that the market does not attribute much value until a couple of months out from


production/drilling. With PRC not expecting to sell any significant volumes until Q4 2008 it looks like September or October next year might be the time to buy PRC - assuming things run reasonably to plan in the meantime.


Interesting Unicorn but it is a gamble.What you say is true about the market late valuing shares waiting for production,but i bought in at 2/3 my entitlement for slightly different reasons.1/Firstly NZO will soon be able to fund itself from revenue so will not have to go back to the market in a hurry for funds.2/Once listing the company is open to takeovers and stake building. 3/ The Coal price is soon going higher.4/Options are likely be be given to current holders,or on favourable terms.5/The current Indian companies in Pike my very well have waited for this IPO to top up.6/ Is it necessary that 85million be raised,if less is enought then less is better.

Time will tell.

[boysy]

just on tv3 the financial resource an asb representaive said quite possibly all the 20m of oversubscriptions could of been taken up (65m+20m oversubscription)

[boysy]

NZ Herald "Solid demand for Pike River Coal shares"

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/section/3/story.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=10450936

[Unicorn]

Hi Digger

I agree that PRC is a gamble, like any other share, but I felt that NZO and PPP were much less of a gamble at the time the money was due. We will know on 20 July!

1/Firstly NZO will soon be able to fund itself from revenue so will not have to go back to the market in a hurry for funds.
But PRC is still short of money. There is still a grey area between the IPO cash running out in October and the $65M Westpac facility (if it goes ahead) in March.

2/Once listing the company is open to takeovers and stake building.
True, and the separation from the Australian supply chain must make it attractive to one of the Australian miners (even more so if that fertiliser ship blows up in Newcastle). But if there was to be any imminent stake building, I would have expected the IPO to be oversubscribed.

3/The Coal price is soon going higher.
I am not so sure. Next year I expect it to be higher, but the following year (when PRC will be producing) I am not so sure. I am not a believer in China/India being able to drive global economic growth in the face of fundamental problems in the western economies. Oil (energy) looks a safer place to be than coal (steel) - especially if it is the higher cost of oil that causes problems.

4/Options are likely be be given to current holders,or on favourable terms.
I am not a great fan of options, unless they are sold to raise capital. The $200M odd of NZOODs on issue could cause many issues towards June next year. And a lot of them were given away for no good purpose (other than to possibly make a takeover of NZO more difficult).

5/The current Indian companies in Pike my very well have waited for this IPO to top up.
I doubt this - Saurashtra declined to take up their option to increase their stake at the IPO price and Ghujarat has not increased their stake either.

6/Is it necessary that 85 million be raised,if less is enought then less is better.
There is still a lot of money to be spent before the production is underway, with not a lot of contingency budget. There is also the $93M capital cost for the WCCC consortium, and the further delays to that contract do not look good. Hopefully it will be signed in short order now that the IPO funds are available, and the delivery of the ships will not be delayed much.

[corporateraider]

Unicorn

PRC will not close on opening day at 94 cents. Among the many functions of a listing broker, one is to organise buying support on listing. A listing broker wants a sucessful float. This is an experienced capital raiser and this float will be no different. Buying support will be there on opening day and the sp will close in positive territory.

[Unicorn]

CorporateRaider

Agreed that the listing broker will try to do that. But when you use a smaller broker, and the larger brokers might not want the float to be successful, it may not work out that way. The very large proportion of shares in the NZO holders preferential pool, the apparent surplus of shares on offer, and the extremely poor runup to this float all work against it.

July 20, and the following few weeks, will be interesting.

[Bling_Bling]

Bling again says... it doesnt matter if NZers want the shares or not, cos the overseas guys are loving resource stocks now. Abit like most NZ assets, it will go to overseas buyers if NZers are too stupid to realise the potential. A year is not too far down the track and the market usually buy for future value and not current value.

[patrick]

The local brokers have shown little interest in the IPO,and are generally very porly informed. Their indiference to what is a very significant new Company, successful or not, indicates perhaps that it is too easy for them. :(

[digger]

Unicorn i stuffed up my previous reply and got it mixed up in your quote but have now straightened it out.

Just before i sent in my application i read an interesting piece on Limits to Growth[1972 approx] and how it is turning out now.While oil is certainly peaking so are many other things and i believe hard coaking coal is one of them.Now that will not stop a short term downturn in price but it does give some quarantee of future price rises if growth is to continue.It also explain why it has somewhat matched oil in price rise in recent years.Now many other minerals are also seeming to peak,such as uranium which is going throw the roof.
So anyways i thought it a good investment and if you are correct and the market can not value it properly until close to production,then to me it will just become a buying opportunity.

I note that you and i are always on opposite sides of the NZO estimates.I have often overguessed it and your picks of the recent past would have NZO lower than it is today.

Again your thoughts are interesting and it sure is the floor of the picks. It is needed we do not want this thing to be all onesided.
Cheers

[manxman]

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/section/3/story.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=10451034

The issue is fully subscribed - no serious weakness on opening The oversubscription is not fully taken up - no scaling of orders There will be a few stags with surplus allocation to sell down

The offer has been pitched not too high, not too low but just right for holders, too high for stags. Will top up closer to first coal unless good buying appears in the meantime. I get the impression that many shares will go to long term holders and the market will be quite thin once the stags have fled.

So opening quietly at around the dollar mark, closing first day 0.98

Mx

[MPC]

Isn't this fun though. I love the anticipation of IPO's and the fact that no one knows where it will go. Good longterm but first few hours, days , weeks will interesting.

Cheers,
MPC

[seagull]

In the end I decided not to take up my 5000 PRC entitlement instead bought Nzo with the funds. Agreed with Unicorn's thinking.
Hope PRC does well but it would'nt surprise me to see it gradually fall below par. Cheers

[digger]

quote:Originally posted by Seagull

In the end I decided not to take up my 5000 PRC entitlement instead bought Nzo with the funds. Agreed with Unicorn's thinking.
Hope PRC does well but it would'nt surprise me to see it gradually fall below par. Cheers


If it does fall below par it will represent the same buying future potential that NZO did one year ago. I will certainly be watching it with more accumulation in mind. But maybe this time the negative crowd will not have the same sway they did with NOG.

[bermuda]

Dont underestimate the quality of this Hard Coking Coal...and the power of the Aussies in this market.The float was issued at a time of absolute negativity.
Dont be surprised for a very successful float.

[Rabbi]

Totally agree

The quality of the product and the worldwide demand for this product
decided the issue for me.

[boysy]

will be interesting to see the opening success of the IPO on the 20th July

[Paddie]

quote:Originally posted by boysy

will be interesting to see the opening success of the IPO on the 20th July


I think that the real interest will be more likely a few months after listing, when all the heat and excitement has gone out of the initial float.

There could be some good buying then.

Time will tell.

Paddie[:p][:p]

[Billy Boy]

"issued at a time of absolute negativity"
I Agree here. Burmuda
A successful float with the knockers getting so much air time.
The way the Insto's are getting in.
Future demand for the product. ETC..
I think there are a lot of folks that ain't done their sums yet. Those that have, ain,t a-talkin'
Cheers BB

[AMR]

My first IPO : Glad to see some great demand for it. From my point of view I think getting that oversubscription lowers the project risk significantly. They now have $10-20M in the bank on top of the $6M contingency budget (which was already rated as "adequate" by BDA) and it gives some more breathing room on the banking convenant if things do go wrong. However one worry I have at the moment is the kiwi dollar staying high. If reaches 57c as they predicted in the prospectus then PRCC will be undervalued.

[Snow Leopard]

quote:Originally posted by xxamr_corpxx

My first IPO : Glad to see some great demand for it. From my point of view I think getting that oversubscription lowers the project risk significantly. They now have $10-20M in the bank on top of the $6M contingency budget (which was already rated as "adequate" by BDA) and it gives some more breathing room on the banking convenant if things do go wrong. However one worry I have at the moment is the kiwi dollar staying high. If reaches 57c as they predicted in the prospectus then PRCC will be undervalued.


You got a learn to kick back, relax, unwind, drink a bud, whatever.
No worries mate!

[Billy Boy]

XXAmr
I dont think The NZ$ is working against PRC right now. Most of the Equipment, steel etc is imported. But if the NZ$ stays high for about another two years then it could be a problem.
Break the carry trade and the $ will come down.
Cheers BB

[boysy]

After having a word with my broker from ASB securities about PRC i asked how many shares he could get for me he said demand was high and they werent letting people buy as much as they wanted in the public pool so id be supprised if the share price closes down on first days as all demand has yet to be "soaked" up as widely publicised by the media.

[the machine]

any idea when one will be advised how many prc they are allocated?

M

[temuk]

quote:Originally posted by the machine

any idea when one will be advised how many prc they are allocated?

M


Page 5 of the prospectus.

allocation and allotment 17th july
notification of allotments 18th july

[the machine]

thanks temuk.

it seems like a long time ago we sent off the $

M

[digger]

I am sticking to my 1-15 for first day close.We should be hearing any time now about the takeup level.Mine would have been higher if the IPO had not so badly conflicted with the PPP exercise date.Quess next buying opportunity is when the SP hits 94 cents as the bottom pick would have it. Exciting stuff.

[port hills]

I've had a look at the guesses for Fridays close and I made the following calculations. (I hope I found everyones picks)

18 entries

lowest = 94c
highest = 127c
mean = 111.83c
median = 112c

The median and mean are almost identical lets see how good this group of traders most of whom have a vested interest in Pike are.

The closing price should be 111 or 112, or is that wishful thinking?

[Bling_Bling]

At least we have abit of excitement in the market and something to look forward to. What is listing date agian?

[temuk]

Friday

[boysy]

hopefully a good listing will put some momentum back in NZO share/warrent prices and hopefully tui coming online can help sustain that

[boysy]

Drilling for the week 51.5m progress now at 1013.5m

[boysy]

Very exciting times indded with PRC listing this week and first oil hopefully next week. Hopefully all this activity will gain heavy media attention for the weeks to come at least :D

[Tok3n]

Media in NZ seems to be focus on the Great Southern Basin at the moment.

[boysy]

Yes i think if PRC IPO is succesful then that will put the spot light back onto NZO and then there is TUI oil and Hector prospect [8D]

[boysy]

are any options issued with the ipo ?

[AMR]

Some options may be issued 6 months after the IPO.

[trackers]

Allll good

Pike River Coal Limited
09:04AM - Pike River Coal IPO Closes Oversubscribed - Shares Allotted

Pike River Coal Limited (Pike River) advises that its initial public offer (IPO) closed on 10 July 2007 heavily oversubscribed. The company received applications considerably in excess of the $65 million minimum sought and the $20 million of oversubscriptions able to be accepted.

[boysy]

so all the 20 million shares were taken up thats what i thort should help PRC share price i guess

[Billy Boy]

I hope PPRC will keep us (share holders) well informed of progress, even if only done on the website. Some good graphics would be great.
Like :- Graphics on access tunnel progress. Drive tunnel development,
Stoaping advances. Roading updates, Shipping Etc. etc.
Would be great advertising and not hard to do. The likes of ARL (America's Cup Animators) out of Dunedin would make a breeze of it.
Cheers BB

[The BOWMAN]

Does anyone how is it going to be scaled?

[trackers]

quote:Originally posted by The BOWMAN

Does anyone how is it going to be scaled?


Nope...But I applied for 12 times my allocation so I suspect I'll be a victim [:o)]

[morpork]

There is an absolute shocker of a tunnel progress diagram at http://www.nzog.net/PikeRivertunnelprogress/image_view

It was up to date 2 weeks ago but now appears months old,either way it gave my browser a hernia

[Unicorn]

That is an old version Morpork. Look here http://www.nzog.net/images/Tunnel_Advance.jpg for the current (and much more impressive) version.

[xpress]

You will have to delete the comma at the end of the address to make it work

[boysy]

why not use the new pike website ?

http://www.pike.co.nz/about-pike-river-coal/Tunnel-scaled.jpg/image_view_fullscreen

[Billy Boy]

Boysy
Dont you think that chart is a bit amateurish.
The pic's are good. But there is a hell of a lot
more to PPRC than just that. Get in the professionials, run a few applets, animate the whole thing right to the end. Lead the way, modern company at the coal face etc, (ohhh.. no pun etc) The poor old Web Master dos'ent have those sorts of skills.

[The BOWMAN]

quote:Originally posted by Billy Boy

Boysy
Dont you think that chart is a bit amateurish.
The pic's are good. But there is a hell of a lot
more to PPRC than just that. Get in the professionials, run a few applets, animate the whole thing right to the end. Lead the way, modern company at the coal face etc, (ohhh.. no pun etc) The poor old Web Master dos'ent have those sorts of skills.


As a shareholder, I strongly disagree wasting money on Web Master for creating an animated progress picture. [8D][8D] What does that have anything to do with our return?

[Billy Boy]

Our return ??
Ya cant sell a secret.
Or under promote yourself.

[Billy Boy]

Sorry
Over promote

[boysy]

well i mean if better graphics would somehow give the market a better understanding on progress then that cant be a bad thing for anyone right ?

[bermuda]

quote:Originally posted by The BOWMAN


quote:Originally posted by Billy Boy

Boysy
Dont you think that chart is a bit amateurish.
The pic's are good. But there is a hell of a lot
more to PPRC than just that. Get in the professionials, run a few applets, animate the whole thing right to the end. Lead the way, modern company at the coal face etc, (ohhh.. no pun etc) The poor old Web Master dos'ent have those sorts of skills.


As a shareholder, I strongly disagree wasting money on Web Master for creating an animated progress picture. [8D][8D] What does that have anything to do with our return?


Bowman,
It is imperative that both the NZO and PRCC websites are up to date in both material and presentaion.

For many would be investors this is their first port of call.Doesnt need to be too flash or animated but definitely professional and up to date.

[cazzer]

personally I don't care about the graphics- what is important is knowing that actual progress is being made at a good rate to get completed on schedule. Numbers would be fine by me.

Excellect job to all concerned on the capital raising. I had my doubts about the $65m let alone oversubscribing $85m. Well done. This is an excitng few weeks for NOG/Pike

[shasta]

The oversubscriptions now means PRC will list as a $200m market cap company on day one!

Should be very good news for NZO & the Pike River action on Friday!

I previously guessed a closing SP of $1.18 & i'll stand by that.

Disc: Nil directly, but between 34.6 - 36.0% via NZO.

[BigBob]

Just checked my holding on computershare.co.nz... I've received the entire allocation I applied for, including the ones that were in addition to my entitlement....

I only applied for shares in the NZO pool, so maybe scaling has only been applied in the public pool..?

[Bling_Bling]

Does Pike have a fixed price contract to sell the coals or are they exposed to the fluctuation of the world coal price movements?

[bermuda]

Bling Bling,
Pike coal gets sold on the open market. The price is usually set by the Aussies and with their cost increases going up expect an increase in price.
ps Iron Ore expected to rise 25% next year. That's used in steel making and there is a close correllation between Iron ore and Hard coking coal prices.
If the price keeps going up and we get an exchange rate dive the we get a double whammy.

[Hoop]

Big Bob

Me too
I got all that I applied for too thru the NZO pool. Thought I was cheeky applying well over my minimum entitlement.

[Bling_Bling]

quote:Originally posted by bermuda

Bling Bling,
Pike coal gets sold on the open market. The price is usually set by the Aussies and with their cost increases going up expect an increase in price.
ps Iron Ore expected to rise 25% next year. That's used in steel making and there is a close correllation between Iron ore and Hard coking coal prices.
If the price keeps going up and we get an exchange rate dive the we get a double whammy.


Thanks for the info. Maybe I should read the prospectus.. LOL. Bling may buy more PRC if the SP tanks on opening. With the oil prices continue trend upwards, there should be pressure on all energy resources to move up also.

[boysy]

Do people believe that a increase in PRC SP will lead to a proportional increase in NZO SP ?

[boysy]

more positive press about PRC in NZ Herald

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/section/3/story.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=10452465:D

[BigBob]

quote: Do people believe that a increase in PRC SP will lead to a proportional increase in NZO SP

As far as I can work out a 1c rise in PRC should equal a rise of about .23c NZO... That is, it will take approx 4c in PRC to get 1c in NZO....

[temuk]

shouldn't that be PRC up 3 cents =NZO 1 cent

NZO holds about 31% which is almost 1/3

[boysy]

And NZOG news release saying they aint going to sell down there stake in PRC and instead will

"support by way of further funding to ensure that PRCL realises its full value by completing development of its Pike River Mine and achieving production expeditiously"

http://www.nzx.com/market/market_announcements/by_company?id=150967

[BigBob]

quote: shouldn't that be PRC up 3 cents =NZO 1 cent

NZO holds about 31% which is almost 1/3

Well, the way I've worked it out is as follows..:

PRC shares on issue: 200,000,000
NZO holding approx 30%: 60,000,000
NZO shares on issue: 261,885,358

PRC value per NZO share: 60,000,000/261,885,358 = 0.229

Happy to proved wrong tho....

Edit - ooops a zero too many....

[boysy]

will be interesting to see how the market reacts to a rise in PRC in the foreseable future

[grumpy]

quote:Originally posted by BigBob


quote: shouldn't that be PRC up 3 cents =NZO 1 cent

NZO holds about 31% which is almost 1/3

Well, the way I've worked it out is as follows..:

Number of PRC shares on issue: 200,000,000
NZO holding 30%: 60,000,000
NZO shares on issue: 261,885,358

PRC value per NZO share: 60,000,000/261,885,358 = 0.0229c

Happy to proved wrong tho....

60,000,000/261,885,358 = 0.229 So every NZO share includes
22.9% of one PRC share!

[BigBob]

quote:60,000,000/261,885,358 = 0.229 So every NZO share includes
22.9% of one PRC share!

Yup, exactly as I said above..: about a 4c PRC rise required to get a 1c rise in NZO...

Note: I've edited my calc and removed the zero... :o)

[temuk]

Sorry

must of had a blonde moment (whats left)

[AMR]

Have just checked computershare - no scaling for me, and I got mine from the public pool.

[Crypto Crude]

Big Bob,
This is how I worked it out... but I got 4.7cent pike rise for every one cent NZO rise...

look at my example...
Pike value on pre listing is 200,000,000 as you say...
if on listing Pike rises one cent to 1.01... Pikes new market value is 200,000,000*1.01=202million...
so the marginal profit is 2million...2million*.3=$600000
600,000/262m shares=.00229 or for every one cent Pike rises causes NZO share price to rise .223 of a cent... so for NZO to rise 1 cent Pike would have to rise 4.7cents.....
obviously If pike rises 10cents tomorrow that NZO would rise much more than 2cents... Pike has been a major problem for NZO in the past and has held back company wide valuations and added risk which has increased risk on the company and decreased Pikes valuation to the company... we have just started to see over the last few weeks NZO rise to to Pike coming good... it will continue to do so...

I have posted this before, I will post it again...

quote:
The coal trade will save the Port of Greymouth which was "on its last legs" and bankrupt, Kokshoorn said.

Grey District Council is ploughing $18m into developing the port's coal-handling facilities as part of a consortium, West Coast Coal Consortium, which has won a contract with PRCC to transport the coal from the mine.

The others in the consortium are Transport Nelson trucking the coal to the port, shippers Wendell and Jebsens, who are providing two 135-metre self-propelled ships to take the coal from Greymouth to the Port of Taranaki, and that port which is upgrading facilities for the coal to be exported from there.

The four will spend $80 million on infrastructure.

Kokshoorn said the consortium was waiting for the public issue of shares to be completed before pushing the button for the transport development.

The transport of the coal from the mine to the Port of Greymouth is a huge undertaking. At maximum production coal trucks will pass homes on the route to the port and back to the mine every 3<<1/2 minutes. At average production they will be passing every 4<<1/2 minutes.


SO chaps, button pushing tomorrow then...
[8D]
.^sc

[port hills]

One more sleep!

I've got myself an obligation free day tomorrow to sit in front of a computer with 'Noodle' a fellow Nogger and Piker and have a wee drink or two.

Bring it on! [:p]

[boysy]

thats the spirit :D

[Tok3n]

Looks like I got my full allocation too (I applied for more).

Did NZO holders get preferential treatment?

[manxman]

It looks as though they only scaled the real biggies. There should be an announcement on the scaling at some stage, but the scaling is at the discretion of the company, and often companies give the small investor a full allocation if the scaling is minor. I got twice my allocation without being scaled back.

[zac]

Doubtful that many missed out. Good PR to crow about oversubscription. Sets up a good float.

[Oiler]

I am with you Zac.

I got my NZO allocation + order plus filled, plus an order through my broker.

Watch this space tomorrow [:p]

[shasta]

quote:Originally posted by BigBob


quote: shouldn't that be PRC up 3 cents =NZO 1 cent

NZO holds about 31% which is almost 1/3

Well, the way I've worked it out is as follows..:

PRC shares on issue: 200,000,000
NZO holding approx 30%: 60,000,000
NZO shares on issue: 261,885,358

PRC value per NZO share: 60,000,000/261,885,358 = 0.229

Happy to proved wrong tho....

Edit - ooops a zero too many....


NZO were to hold 34.6% of PRC after the IPO & have both options & convertible notes that would take them up to 36.0%.

Have they sold down some more in the 20m oversubscriptions, else where is the SSH notice?

Pike River with 200m shares @ $1 = $69.2m to NZO or 0.346 per share of Pike belongs to NZO.

Glad we cleared that up! :D

[FRED]

So if everyone got the shares they wanted...plus some to stag I suppose....where does the demand come from????

Still reckon the money is better of on the drill.

Didnt buy any...even on the chance(????) of 10-15% stag.

Good luck on the morrow. Fast fingers will win IMO.

F

[tim23]

Institutions may have been scaled so willbe buying tomorrow if that is the case; I got all mine though they were priority allocation. My guess is listing about $1.08 - $1.10

[Mick100]

I didn't take up my allocation - put the money into NZOOD instesd - no regrets

Hope it goes well tomorrow
,

[boysy]

well PRC success should lead to gains in NZOODs i also put most of my money in NZOODs so im not to unhappy about recent returns :D

[The BOWMAN]

Scale back is real. Only got 65% of application on one of the big account. Wasted all those interest for a month. Unhappy.

[Snow Leopard]

Prediction:
I will look in this here thread tomorrow night and there will a couple of pages detailing pre-open depths and prices, the progress during the day, self-congratulatory back-patting as your holding increases in value and post close analysis of the great future.

I will buy your shares from you at 93c a pop in a few months :D

best wishes
Paper Tiger

Disc: NZO & NZOOD amongst other stuff.

[the machine]

Speaking to my stockbroker today was advised that whilst a lot of the pre listing lodgements have been made to the ASX, the formalities are not cmplete, thus very unlikely to list on ASX tomottow.
My Chess holdings have not been passed through to my broker either.

Also notice PRC has been removed from the highlighted section of upcoming floats on ASX homepage, after spending most of the day there as supposedly the next float to list.

PRC had advised listing on NZX would be followed by listing on ASX.

Guess will have to get my PRC ride tomorrow on the NZX.

Still sticking with tomorrows close nz$1.15.

Does anyone know what exchange rate used in determining allocations for Australian IPO? Am hoping my aud$3,000 will = 3,300 shares.

M

[Wiremu]

the machine,

The exchange rates are in the latest news section at www.pike.co.nz

[Noodle]

So only 43mins until market opens....will be very interesting :)
Good luck all you fellow pikers :D

[Noodle]

At this early stage only 1 solitary buyer of PRC at 120 but seller at 110 will take that out....opening price thus far will be $1.10.

[digger]

quote:Originally posted by Paper Tiger

Prediction:
I will look in this here thread tomorrow night and there will a couple of pages detailing pre-open depths and prices, the progress during the day, self-congratulatory back-patting as your holding increases in value and post close analysis of the great future.

I will buy your shares from you at 93c a pop in a few months :D

best wishes
Paper Tiger

Do i detect that Unicorn and Paper Tiger did not take up their allications and now want a failure listing to get in cheap.Sorry boys but i did not take up all mine because of the PPP requirements so will do so when PIKE gets[[IF,If,If]under 98cents.But my prediction is that the AUS investers are more advanced than Kiwis in this area and will not allow it to happen. My best guess is that it is already undervalued at a dollar and will never get below it.
We shall see who is right. Mind you,talking to myself strange things do happen,so a bob both ways maybe i will be wrong.As i said to Unicorn it is a big gamble to sit on the sidelines hopeing the listing will be a failure.Many very successful IPO had investers waiting for the sky to fall in and are waiting still.
Disc: NZO & NZOOD amongst other stuff.

[Hoop]

The depth as of 9.30am

[u]Bids </u>
Quantity No. Price
5,900 1 120

[u]Asks</u>
Price No. Quantity
110 2 24,500
118 2 29,500
120 1 20,000
125 1 3,500

[bermuda]

Reasonable offer on table of 107000 @ 120 cents

[trackers]

100k buying at 1.20, thats the spirit

edit: Beaten! :)

[Hoop]

Depth as of 9.57am

Bids
Quantity No. Price
107,900 3 120
4,400 1 115
6,000 1 112
10,000 1 111
37,477 6 110
79,745 4 100
Asks
Price No. Quantity
110 4 32,500
115 1 10,000
117 1 2,500
118 2 29,500
119 3 48,500
120 4 83,000
122 1 10,000
124 1 3,000
125 2 4,886
129 1 10,000
130 3 43,000

[leecoker]

what did it open at? i cant see market depth at the moment:( infact anything for prc isnt updating on the nationalbank website:(

[port hills]

Going to list NZX today at 12noon, Aussie not today.

[leecoker]

my bad, thanks port hills!

[PointyHat]

The wait doesn't seem to be hurting the heads. It will be a long wait til noon!

[mibo]

Looking like an opening at $1.15 at this stage

[Hoop]

ahh noon. A much more civlised hour to crack open a bottle of bubbly and maybe lunch too:D[8D][:p]

[port hills]

Who cares about civilised?
Noodle and I are on our second beers each, just finished the bacon butties. [:p]

[777]

Quote:
Noodle and I are on our second beers each, just finished the bacon butties.

Well don't make any rash buy or sell decisions today.

[bermuda]

Noodle
What is your closing pick?
Port Hills was 114 but couldnt see your entry.Mine was 111. As 777 says dont get too rash with those butties!

[port hills]

Noodle here.
Looks like an open price of 110 at this stage.
Im thinking somewhere about 112 for an opening price.
Closing price about 108.
Anymore than that and all should be happy!
Oh well we just better have another beer and ponder the next move.
Good luck you pikers!



quote:Originally posted by bermuda

Noodle
What is your closing pick?
Port Hills was 114 but couldnt see your entry.Mine was 111. As 777 says dont get too rash with those butties!

[troyvdh]

...who is going to blink first...

[Noodle]

I see an undisclosed buyer at $1.00 (not me!)....opening price at this point $1.09.

[trackers]

GENERAL Largest equity issue year to date - Pike River lists today

Full Text of Announcement
20 July 2007 - Pike River Coal Limited lists on the NZSX Market today, raising $85 million of capital, which includes $20 million of oversubscriptions.

NZX Markets Development Manager, Geoff Brown said, "The demand for the Pike River issue gives evidence of a strong appetite for this investment.

"The issue increases the range of investment opportunities available for investors on the NZX markets and creates a much broader exposure to the New Zealand listed resource sector."

Shares in Pike River Coal will be quoted on the NZSX Market under the security code PRC from 12pm today.

For more information, please contact:

Lucy McFadden
Communications
New Zealand Exchange Limited

04-496-2890
027-512-7832

[whatsup]

$1.08 listing ,Lower than I would have thaught!!!!

[whatsup]

$1.05/$1.06 wow!!

[whatsup]

$1.05/$1.06 wow!!

[whatsup]

$1.02/ $1.03 WOW WOW DOUBLE WOWWOW!!!

[Noodle]

1.02 1.03 now.....suddenly no one likes coal already!

[The BOWMAN]

quote:Originally posted by whatsup

$1.05/$1.06 wow!!

Let me continue
$1.02/$1.03 WAW!!

and predict
$0.96/$0.97 DOH!

[boysy]

looks like too many bought with short term gain now 1.03

[upside_umop]

Seriously though, who would want to sell this investment below $1.00..unless they were really desperate.

[boysy]

exactly i hope this fall will get rid of those who dont belive in the company

[JoeKing]

quote:Originally posted by whatsup

$1.02/ $1.03 WOW WOW DOUBLE WOWWOW!!!

BOW-WOW BOW WOW WOW.
Once a dog always a dog.
Good luck Pikers,
JK

[zac]

Worth noting that the PRC pie is still half baked. A lot of money has yet to be spent and obstacles cleared before the project comes to fruition. Given the uncertainties a price of $1.03 is probably pretty good; it was never going to be a profitable stag.

[777]

Consensus of opinion. Success or not a success?
What affect will it have on NZO share price now the hype of this issue is behind us?

[upside_umop]

Also worth noting several institutions jumped aboard. Sure there is uncertainty, but isnt there with any new listing company? Xero for instance..they have got names, but no product. Pike has a product. We may see ups and downs in price, but time will tell.

[Bling_Bling]

The sooner the short term traders are out of this the better. Good opportunity to buy more if there is price weakness. Turnover is very low for a listing.

[blockhead]

Nothing wrong with Pike, just a while before the 1st ship load eases out over the Grey River bar.
I suspect PT (a page back) will be correct.
Blocky hopped out with a small gain, will ride it via NZO in the near term and may get back in closer to production.

[Noodle]

1.01 1.02....looks like our positive predictions were way off the mark at this point. Oh well will just have to have another beer and go get some kfc!!!!...we are buying big so look out for a spike in rbd!!!:D

[Noodle]

undisclosed buyer at 1.01 now...so look out for a jump in SP.

[port hills]

Look out Henny Penny the sky is falling in.:)

[ritchie]

Who would buy at the ipo for $1 and sell for only $1.01...dosnt make sense to me,,,or am I missing something again

[Yossarian]

they hope for 1.20+, they realised there's no stag on offer, they panic and sell at 1.01, simple.

[Rif-Raf]

Someone I know went to a client function for Macquaries last night with Arthur Lim etc as speakers. Apparently they were very bullish about coal mining stocks.

[dsurf]

It may have been very different if the listing had been done in Ausi at the same time since they understand resources & have analysts over there.

[morpork]

quote:Originally posted by ritchie

Who would buy at the ipo for $1 and sell for only $1.01...dosnt make sense to me,,,or am I missing something again


Port hills gave you the answer 1 second before you asked it
and its Friday,and the coals going to be in the ground a little while yet,and they may ask for more money,and mum needs a new hip......

[slam]

quote:Originally posted by Noodle

undisclosed buyer at 1.01 now...so look out for a jump in SP.


NZO Propping it up;):D

[JoeKing]

quote:Originally posted by slam


quote:Originally posted by Noodle

undisclosed buyer at 1.01 now...so look out for a jump in SP.


NZO Propping it up;):D


WITH YOUR MONEY! :D:D:D

[port hills]

Noodles reply:
Oh my money is still with NZO with a small personal interest in PRC.



quote:Originally posted by JoeKing


quote:Originally posted by slam


quote:Originally posted by Noodle

undisclosed buyer at 1.01 now...so look out for a jump in SP.


NZO Propping it up;):D


WITH YOUR MONEY! :D:D:D

[QOH]

Well I made a whopping $30.10 on my shares after brokerage. Not worried but disappointed that it seems to have knocked NZO and NZOOD back a bit.

[Mr Tommy]

Well thats what you get when you soak up $20m of oversubscriptions.

[Nitaa]

I am surpised at some of the reaction and comments on this topic. The more that people intends to buy into an ipo and sell out upon listing then no one will make any money. The NZX is not like China where there is almost free money when a significant company lists.

Investors who brought into this will most likely see this as a long term play. The day traders or the ones who want to try and make a quick dollar wasted their time in investing in this company.

Overall i would give this an 8 out of 10. The demand probably exceeded most expecatations. Well done PRC

[The BOWMAN]

quote:Originally posted by ritchie

Who would buy at the ipo for $1 and sell for only $1.01...dosnt make sense to me,,,or am I missing something again


I believe we have an answer -&gt;


quote:Originally posted by QOH

Well I made a whopping $30.10 on my shares after brokerage. Not worried but disappointed that it seems to have knocked NZO and NZOOD back a bit.

[Rabbi]

A typical NZ IPO, all hype and no substance. I'm thinking this is a now a long term play so I will hang in. I believe the shareprice will be underpinned by overseas institutions. If everything proceeds to schedule and the shares look a bit undervalued a takeover by an overseas mine co. is my prediction.

Should be strong cashflow and good profits down the track.

[troyvdh]

sad really....heaps of folk looking for the quick buck...I beat most could not even spell wealth let alone accumulation.....I wonder if any are related to cujudog

[QOH]

quote:Originally posted by troyvdh

sad really....heaps of folk looking for the quick buck...I beat most could not even spell wealth let alone accumulation.....I wonder if any are related to cujudog

I can spell wealth, accumulate it, and even find spelling errors. I assume you meant "bet" not "beat"

[zac]

Why all the hand wringing? There was no stag profit but the opportunity to get out intact remains. No short term gain but what the hell -on to the next opportunity. And some of us will hang in long term. Incidentally UU Pike does not yet have a 'product'.

[trackers]

When are they going to start trading on the ASX??

[Big-Noters]

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

quote:
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Originally posted by troyvdh

sad really....heaps of folk looking for the quick buck...I beat most could not even spell wealth let alone accumulation.....I wonder if any are related to cujudog

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


I can spell wealth, accumulate it, and even find spelling errors. I assume you meant "bet" not "beat"



Dont bother with the spell check QOH just dream up new ways of spending your 30 buck windfall

[dsurf]

Trackers: ASX listing is "To be advised"

[Rumplestiltskin]

quote:Originally posted by Rumplestiltskin

1.04 A Huge amount of risk has to come out of this Company yet and that will take time.There will better buying opportunities than listing day.
As per usual, here and elsewhere, pre-list hype is alive and well.


Closed at 1.02. Not too far out.

[Paddie]

quote:Originally posted by slam


quote:Originally posted by Noodle

undisclosed buyer at 1.01 now...so look out for a jump in SP.


NZO Propping it up;):D


So therefor as the PRC price declines, so will the NZO price?

Paddie

[Scuffer]

There is stilll a lot of risk here but the problems are going to be overcome its just how long and how much, I was wary from the start but still see possibilities, just not yet, maybe next year,they are a long term speculative buy at the moment for me.[?]

[tim23]

Zac - they do have a product its called coal!

[winner69]

Watch out for those rock overhangs ....

Where is sniper?

[Paddie]

quote:Originally posted by Scuffer

There is stilll a lot of risk here but the problems are going to be overcome its just how long and how much, I was wary from the start but still see possibilities, just not yet, maybe next year,they are a long term speculative buy at the moment for me.[?]


I am with you on Pike.

Learnt my lesson, buy when problems sorted and getting close to production, otherwise tying up dollars that could be better spent elsewhere.

I do believe long term Pike will be successful, but over the next few months do expect the share price to drift back.

Paddie[:p]

[Scuffer]

Thanks Paddie I was getting a lot of flack on this thread pre float for pouring cold water on all the hype, it's nice to know someone agrees with me, I would rather earn interest in the bank until a buying oppurtunity arises, which I think is away off yet, but well done to all who made a bit on the float.:)

[patrick]

Salisbury saying a couple of days ago that the Pike River holding may be sold probably cost the sp 5 or 6 cents.
"We dont like it all that much so will get out"
When will they learn?[?]

[Nitaa]

quote:Originally posted by patrick

Salisbury saying a couple of days ago that the Pike River holding may be sold probably cost the sp 5 or 6 cents.
"We dont like it all that much so will get out"
When will they learn?[?]
Its been NZO's intention to get out of Pike for a few years now. I think most likely before the end of the year. Actually make it 2008 they sell out.

[boysy]

recent NZO press releases would suggest otherwise

NZOG wishes to emphasise that it is committed to Pike River Coal Limited (PRCL) including future support by way of further funding to ensure that PRCL realises its full value by completing development of its Pike River Mine and achieving production expeditiously.

http://www.nzx.com/market/market_announcements/by_company?id=150967

[Nitaa]

quote:Originally posted by boysy

recent NZO press releases would suggest otherwise

NZOG wishes to emphasise that it is committed to Pike River Coal Limited (PRCL) including future support by way of further funding to ensure that PRCL realises its full value by completing development of its Pike River Mine and achieving production expeditiously.

http://www.nzx.com/market/market_announcements/by_company?id=150967

Yes you may be correct. Im still in the view that as the press had reported that there is some truth in that.

[bermuda]

Exactly Boysy
David Salisbury was absolutely livid .
NZ needs one Energy Reporter,..., it takes a lot to understand this industry

[patrick]

Salisbury LIVID? Why say anything?[?]

[bermuda]

Patrick,
That's why we need one Energy Reporter. The Press guy who wrote that article was absolutely bewildered about all the tech jargon, figures, you name it. Hence a completely erroneous article . Such is life.

[Getty]

When you consider nearly 2% of the value of this float has traded in 1 day, just after $85mill has been paid into the IPO, on top of all the money that has gone onto convert PPP options recently, as well as the buying pressure that has boosted NZO & PPP headshares, to finish up with @ 24% annulised gain, is Quite a credible effort in this Texans view.

[Rumplestiltskin]

I think PRC has been a brilliant float. To get the full 85mil away and close above par is a credit to NZOG and Gordon Ward in particular.I think it will drop below $1 for a while but it is sucessfully on the market and after all the delays the timing would seem to be pretty good.If Gordon reads this, Congratulations.