PRC Pike River Coal

[Ayrton]

In the herald today. Only 29% support, with 53% opposing. Definitely need to send some realistic submissions in to the MED.
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=10646198

[digger]

He was expelled, when a good spanking would have been in order. It demonstrates the problems once corporal punishment options are removed.
I prefer not to invest in options as I think they are much more of a gamble than holding the actual shares.

Had Balance not been expelled i was going to put in a complaint regarding Balance to the admistration regarding him making out that i was the official mouth piece for the company.This is plainly incorrect but could be taken as read by many of reader to this site.Remember all poster here are not the standard of Unicorn and Bermuda,etc,so can be somewhat fooled into believing rubbish if told often enought. For that reason i was about to put in my complaint when Balance disappeared so problem solved.

[shasta]

Had Balance not been expelled i was going to put in a complaint regarding Balance to the admistration regarding him making out that i was the official mouth piece for the company.This is plainly incorrect but could be taken as read by many of reader to this site.Remember all poster here are not the standard of Unicorn and Bermuda,etc,so can be somewhat fooled into believing rubbish if told often enought. For that reason i was about to put in my complaint when Balance disappeared so problem solved.

Just a good reminder that people should follow up on any "facts" given, & check the relevant announcements, anyone proclaiming to know "market sensitive" information shouldnt be relied upon.

I doubt we have seen the last of Balance!

[mouse]

Digger, I am a sort of unofficial spokesperson for Pike. Cannot see how you could be too. I think Pike is wonderful. They are not responsibly for the geology of the mine once chaps came along with slide rules, it was that long ago maybe, and said 'dig there'. Some coal already exported. Work almost complete on pit bottom. We should see a good level of coal production by the end of this year. I think the share price is underpriced. By a large margin.

[the machine]

just had a look at pikes chart compared to asx200 and it looks pretty good over last 3 months 6 months 12 months

M

[Baddarcy]

Nice little jump right at the close from 100 to 105. Guess someone was expecting some good news before the market opens on Monday.

Have just seen an announcement but was hoping for a mine update too. Maybe still to come?

[mouse]

Not so Baddarcy. There seems to be a general realisation that 'there is trouble in the woodshed.' So shares in banks and Pike have gone up. After a stupid collapse of Pike earlier today down to 96 cents. However the rest of NZ shares have gone down with problems of 'sovereign debt.' It seems the printing presses are very hard at work trying to keep up with the demand for more money. Which as Pike actually has genuine coal for sale should help us shareholders a fair bit. Now we cannot of course be happy at a total collapse of the world economy, but it will not get to that. Alan Bollard will stop it. Actually, I have more confidence in Pike than Alan Bollard. So fingers crossed and it should be an interesting weekend and next week. Is anyone running a book on it?

[bung5]

No one concerned about crash of coal prices to historical levels?

[Dr_Who]

This is very positive for coking coal prices. Aussie coal stocks and other commodities rallied on the back of it.

Rio reaches iron ore price deal

http://www.smh.com.au/business/rio-reaches-iron-ore-price-deal-20100521-w080.html

[mouse]

No one concerned about crash of coal prices to historical levels?
:)Quite simply NO. Since we only mine coal if it is profitable to do so. If steel stops being made, or production is reduced so we make little profit, then we just mothball the mine. It costs a few dollars of course. But not that much. So the coal stays in the ground and we make cash later.:)
During strikes all underground mines are put into a mothball state with the active cooperation of the miners. Or there is no job when the strike finishes.:)
I suspect coal mining is one of the very few investments which can sustain a prolonged world recession. :)We may lose a bit of return on capital, but we will not lose our capital. :)Of course we have to diversify risk etc., but Pike is still where a chunk of cash should be.:)
Have a happy week-end. :) Dont lose sleep over Pike. :)
Comments please. I could, but it is remote, be proved wrong. :)

[mouse]

Lyttelton Port. Camera at the coal berth.
http://www.lpc.co.nz/RP.jasc?session=BD2B8EEB71D4D76952996CEE548AC5&Page=N225P2

[Logen Ninefingers]

Pike is wonderful, it's terrific, it's fantastical. In a short time it's gone from being something insignificant to the worlds greatest company. If the price of coal crashes, just mothball the mine. Don't lose sight of the fact that Pike is, quite simply, the best...ever.

[Sideshow Bob]

Mouse, have you rung up the Blackball Hilton lately for an update??

[percy]

Mouse, have you rung up the Blackball Hilton lately for an update??

Be careful.We do not know where Balance is.He may be holidaying there!!!!

[Flogs]

Mouse

Are you implying that this is Pike coal that is loading?

[mouse]

Mouse

Are you implying that this is Pike coal that is loading?
No, not at all. But it is where Pike coal will be loaded. If only we can get it out of the ground, roaded to Ikamatua, railed over the Alps to Lyttelton and unloaded at the port. THEN we can watch the stuff being loaded. But it is a bit of a journey.
The Euro problems are major. Which is one of the reasons why I am now very happy indeed with Pike. I only want a little bit of coal out, Please.

[mouse]

Mouse, have you rung up the Blackball Hilton lately for an update??
The Blackball Hilton is offering a 'Winter Escape' June1 to Sept 30 for $80.00 per person including continental breakfast. bbhilton@xtra.co.nz or www.blackballhilton@xtra.co.nz For anyone who wants to pop over and save the cost of a phone call. You could visit the mine whilst there. They sent me an invitation this morning.

[Kees]

well take your wheelbarrow and give them a hand might be quicker

[Baddarcy]

On Stuff.co.nz this morning....
--------------------------

By ALAN WOOD - BusinessDay.co.nz

Pike River Coal says if it was given better exploration access to protected "Schedule 4" land it would possibly explore other potential mine sites around New Zealand.

PRC chief executive Gordon Ward said he wrote a public letter to investors last week to clear up misconceptions around a Government proposal to look at the mineral potential of some conservation land.

Pike River unusually has an agreement in place to mine under Paparoa National Park – an area of Schedule 4 protected land. Miners in general cannot use Schedule 4 land but the Government is looking at easier access to the land to stimulate New Zealand's economy.

Ward said if rules were changed to allow better exploration of Schedule 4 conservation land, it could well take a look in a region separate to its existing mine operation.

"In a sense we're looking at other opportunities around the country, and this (better access) would be a very positive development."

Ward said the last Government transferred 7500 square kilometres of land into the Schedule 4 conservation estate in November 2008 without the mineral potential being assessed.

At this point a relatively small bit of New Zealand's surface was being mined for minerals, Ward said. Mining minerals and petroleum generates $6.9 billion of revenues a year from less than 40 square kilometres of land.

The Stewart Island's Rakiura National Park and the West Coast's Paparoa National Park could both be opened up for mining under the Government proposal, but such a move is opposed by conservationists.

Ward has rebutted suggestions by objectors that mining in Schedule Four would hurt tourism or have a big impact on the environment.

It was PRC's view that it should be easier at least to explore the potential of New Zealand's Schedule 4 land by allowing better prospecting on the surface areas of the protected land, he said.

At present miners were able to do "a little bit" of sampling by rock hammers and hand on the Schedule 4 land, but PRC wanted better access to allow drilling.

The Government was saying the only way to do better exploration was to transfer the land out of Schedule 4, at least on a temporary basis. "What we're saying is you'd be better off actually taking a look to see what the potential is first.

"Once you find [minerals] then you can transfer it out of Schedule 4 ... on occasion you need to drill on the surface, and because the current restriction on surface vegetation is only four metres by four metres it's too small to get a drilling rig in.

Ad Feedback "What we've said is maybe the Government should allow 10 by 20 metres to be cleared to put a drilling rig there."

PRC was not yet mining under Paparoa National Park in its extraction of coal from an underground seam mine but could do in a few years time, Ward said. The miner shipped its first coal from Lyttelton earlier this year.

The original permit to mine the Brunner seam had been gained more than 20 years ago, and PRC's rights to mine underneath the park were protected under the Paparoa National Park management plan.

The access road and entry site to the mine were on separate non-Schedule 4 conservation estate, he added. "Ultimately, after we have some mining track record behind us we do expect to go underneath the Paparoa National Park, which is still some years away.

"A right to us being able to mine underneath that area is subject to us not having any adverse impact on the surface of the land," Ward said.

Outside the park area any subsidence of the land surface was subject to stringent resource consent conditions, he said.

The sandstone rock above the mined coal seam was expected to crack into blocks and subside, but not significantly, leading to little subsidence on the surface below a 3 metre limit, he said. Only a bit over 30 per cent of the coal was being extracted from the seam, leaving coal for support of surface features.

[freddy]

Last friday the NZX shows trades and prices like this ie closing at $1.00

http://chart.bigcharts.com/custom/fairfax-com-nz/chart.asp?rnd=0.3413987001404166&style=2242&symb=PRC&size=1&type=64&time=1dy&freq=1mi&comp=&compidx=&ma=&maval=&lf=&lf2=&lf3=&uf=16384&arrowdates=&arrowlegend=&country=NZ&sid=2730033

Yet it also shows closing (and todays opening) as $1.05 can anyone explain that please? the weekend paper shows the closing at $1.05. Looks really odd :confused:

[JoeBlogs]

Prices jumped to $1.05 at the close (that's the flurry of order filling that happens at 17:00), but the last pre-close trade (up until 16:45) was at $1.00. The relevant price for end of day and end of week on Friday is $1.05

Have a look at the NZX website for more info on trading hours.

Cheers

[freddy]

So do those trades at the close never appear in the price volume charts? See this one straddling Fri-mon and nothing at $1.05. Appreciate the info.
http://chart.bigcharts.com/custom/fairfax-com-nz/chart.asp?rnd=0.9998021936044097&style=2242&symb=PRC&size=1&type=64&time=2dy&freq=1mi&comp=&compidx=&ma=&maval=&lf=&lf2=&lf3=&uf=16384&arrowdates=&arrowlegend=&country=NZ&sid=2730033

[JoeBlogs]

Yes they should do, some charts don't seem to be rigged properly.

I generally use Google Finance

PRC on Google Finance (http://www.google.com/finance?q=NZE:PRC) Note the spike up to 1.05 at the end of Friday with volume displayed below.

They also have very timely and extensive news coverage of NZ companies.

Hope that helps. Feel free to private message me if you want any more details.

[freddy]

Great thanks. That is helpful and google finance is great. Hadn't been there before BUT it added in other stocks to the recent quotes area that i'd looked at through other websites. Freaky and a bit disconcerting - how did it know.......

[JoeBlogs]

Haha, google knows all :-O

You'll probibly find the other websites use google finance as their 'engine' and the data is stored as a cookie by your web browser.

[manxman]

Quentin Duthie from Forest & Bird

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/environment/news/article.cfm?c_id=39&objectid=10647628

"The large Pike River and OceanaGold mines on the West Coast have both received multiple fines for polluting waterways..."

Have I missed something or is this fellow talking through his hat?

[winner69]

Should listen to question time in parliament - last October

Dr Russel Norman: Does the Prime Minister stand by his statement that “the Pike River underground coalmine near Greymouth was an example of modern mining practices that had minimal impact on the landscape”; if so, is he proud of the fact that the Pike River Coal mine has received not one but two fines for environmental pollution in the last few months and it has not even started producing coal yet?

Hon JOHN KEY: Yes, I do stand by that statement. If Pike River Coal has caused problems, then it needs to rectify those. I point out that the concession it got on the Department of Conservation estate was granted by Labour, the party that Sue Bradford wanted to be in coalition with, even if others in the Greens did not.

[Snow Leopard]

Does not seem to mention any fines on the Environmental Performance (http://www.pike.co.nz/environmental_performance.php) bit of their website. :rolleyes:

[Baddarcy]

A bit dissapointed that we have not received a progress update from PRC.

Was expecting one after the capital rasing was completed. We have heard through various news stories that progress has been better than expected since beating the graben, but it would be nice to know how far they had drilled and how much coal they have in the yard.

[Logen Ninefingers]

It's a bit surprising that PRC are not keeping people advised on recent progress.....usually the information pours from there like a huge mountain of coal pouring out of a mine.

[Hoop]

It's a bit surprising that PRC are not keeping people advised on recent progress.....usually the information pours from there like a huge mountain of coal pouring out of a mine.
Not surprising....they got what they wanted from the shareholders...attention is now re-focused away from the shareholder back towards what they were doing before.... catching rats and finding mates for lonely male ducks.

Quote from their website (http://www.pike.co.nz/environmental_performance.php)



undertaking a pest and predator control programme to encourage the return of native birds like the blue duck (whio) and great spotted kiwi
sponsoring a blue duck enhancement programme

[manxman]

[QUOTE=winner69;306089]Should listen to question time in parliament - last October

Thanks W69, I had missed that.
We still need some sense of proportionality to justify the F & B attack on Pike River.
Was this simply an undocumented from a storage pile, or was it a major FUBAR?

The $750 infraction notice (too small to contest) hardly justifies the argument that all mining in New Zealand should be stopped.

Before mining, Powelliphantia snails were endangered. Now, with miners co-operating with DOC, the crisis seems to be much diminished. Jokes about snail farms on this site ceased a ouple of years ago.

It is time for F&B to recognize that underground mining is the least of thier troubles. Often coal does not stick to a binary (is coal)/(is not coal) scenario. Opencast mines often expose, without harvesting, large reserves of semicoal, mixed and low grade resources, which the oxidize. Uncerground mines are far more targetted on high grade resources. Its not that they are more moral or ethical, its simply that the economics push them that way

[Baddarcy]

Seems PRC has a new 2nd largest shareholder called "New Zealand Central Securities Depository Limited" which as far as i can tell is the Reserve Bank.

Didn't know Bollard was such a fan !!!

[percy]

Seems PRC has a new 2nd largest shareholder called "New Zealand Central Securities Depository Limited" which as far as i can tell is the Reserve Bank.

Didn't know Bollard was such a fan !!!

the large institutions have their shares registered there.

[Casa del Energia]

From Reuters 27 May 2010

"TOKYO - Global miner BHP Billiton has requested a more than 10% rise in the price of coking coal for the July-September quarter, said Sumitomo Metal Industries, Japan's third-biggest steelmaker.

The price hike to about $225/t would represent a 75% rise from a year earlier for the key ingredient used in steelmaking."


.... and always remember - Buller seam coal is a trillion times better than any of that aussie rubbish.

[peat]

the large institutions have their shares registered there.

so, they are hiding behind a nominee type arrangement? I thought the whole point of disclosure was to create transparency...

[percy]

so, they are hiding behind a nominee type arrangement? I thought the whole point of disclosure was to create transparency...

No.It is more to do with institutions having ease of access.I find some annual reports break this down to who the holders are.I think in PRC case if you were to ask the company who these holders are they would tell you.I have shares in a CH CH company that was not happy about it, so only sent one annual report to them to split up between the 4 or so institutions who had their shares registered there.I think NZX would explain the arrangement better than I have.

[Silverlight]

NZCSD is the Reserve Banks Registry system, a lot of Nominee companys hold there holdings there, rather than directly with Computershare or Link Market Services.

Below are the top holders under the NZCSD

HSBC NOMINEES (NEW ZEALAND) LTD 23,903,590
ACCIDENT COMPENSATION CORPORATION 17,631,320
NATIONAL NOMINEES NEW ZEALAND LTD 12,454,370
NEW ZEALAND SUPERANNUATION FUND NOMINEES LTD 6,111,143
NZGT NOMINEES LTD-AMP CAPITAL STRATEGIC NZ SH 5,314,824
CUSTODY AND INVESTMENT NOMINEES LTD 2,666,213
NZGT NOMINEES LTD-AMP CAPITAL NZ SHARES FUND 1,983,769
TEA CUSTODIANS LTD 1,818,409
ANZ NOMINEES LTD 1,326,420
HSBC NOMINEES (NEW ZEALAND) LTD STATE STREET 1,297,202
CITIBANK NOMINEES (NZ) 1,270,817
ASTERON LIFE LTD 881,300 NZ GUARDIAN TRUST INVESTMENT NOMINEES LTD 643,700
BT NZ Unit Trust Nominees LTD 225,000
NEW ZEALAND EQUITY NOMINEE POOL 199,176
AMP CUSTODIAN SERVICES LTD 158,535
PUBLIC TRUST-PERM NOMS TOWER NZ EQUITY 151,433
COGENT NOMINEES (NZ) LTD 112,859
PUBLIC TRUST O/A AUST.EQUITY (VALUE) NOM POOL 83,972
NEW ZEALAND & AUSTRALIAN EQ FUND PT67 41,759
PUBLIC TRUSTEE-GIF 41 38,476
PUBLIC TRUSTEE-PTIF 61 37,274
AMP CAPITAL NZ EQUITY OPPORTUNITY FUND 21,492
MINT NOMINEES LTD 20,000
AMP CAPITAL RESPONSIBLE INVESTMENT LEADERS BA 4,290

[Baddarcy]

Have to feel a bit sorry for the people selling shares at the moment for approx 100. Given where PRC is at the moment, the outlook is for a change fairly positive, production problems seem to be out of the way, the dollar is dropping and the coal price just keeps on rising.

At some point in the near future (whenever PRC actually tells us what is happening down at the mine!!) there is going to be an announcement from the mine that advises the day has finally come and Hydro mining is starting. Heck even an announcement that they are still on schedule to begin in the July to Sept quarter would probably boost the share price a resonable chunk.

Either way i hope that the people selling have a real need for the cash and are not just selling out of frustration at the endless waiting, as i think they will regret it over the months to come.

[JoeBlogs]

I agree, I wish I had some spare cash lying around! The dollar is a huge consideration here especially given that coal prices remain firm. Seems a bit silly that general market sentiment has dragged on this stock when the key fundimentals have only got better. Fear and greed!

[digger]

I agree, I wish I had some spare cash lying around! The dollar is a huge consideration here especially given that coal prices remain firm. Seems a bit silly that general market sentiment has dragged on this stock when the key fundimentals have only got better. Fear and greed!

IMHO it will be PRC that will have one of the biggest sP increase over the next year. From where it is today it will boost NZO along more so than the other two projects already earning. PRC is just at this moment seen as negative but yes that is all about to change.Remember the market has factored in that all will go wrong so if it is only neutral that will be positive.Such is market senitment.

[dsurf]

IMO a re-rating will happen after June quarterly (end July) but only if there is no further slippage in the production schedule & "hydro mining is going to planned ramp up"

[JoeBlogs]

the market has factored in that all will go wrong so if it is only neutral that will be positive.Such is market senitment.

Very true, and of course we dear not imagine what might happen if PRC were to uncharacteristically beat forecasts and expectations :D

OAs are a fantastic (albeit high risk) play at these levels, at this point in time IMO.

[Logen Ninefingers]

I want information on how the blue duck enhancement program is going. Hopefully we will see a significant ramp-up in blue duck numbers. Only after PRC make the information on this readily available will I consider my next move. The cone of silence must be lifted.

[JoeBlogs]

Ha, haven't you heard? The blue ducks turned out to be pukekos, which caused a sharp slump in the SP due to significant impairment write-downs. This market sensitive information will be released as soon as a trivial piece of positive spin can be found to balance it against. But wait till you hear what unfortunate wildlife blunders the stote traps have turned up. I believe a report is swiftly being pushed through its 89th draft for release early next year (although that timeframe is subject to significant movement due to unforseen dog patting requirements).

[Logen Ninefingers]

What a pity there isn't a market for little pieces of graben...the money would would be rolling in by now!!

[Dr_Who]

June 1 (Bloomberg) -- JFE Holdings Inc., Japan’s second- largest steelmaker, and two rivals agreed to a 12.5 percent price increase for coking coal contracts with BHP Billiton Ltd., three people with knowledge of the agreements said.

Prices for the steelmaking ingredient will rise to $225 a metric ton for the July quarter, from $200 a ton for the three months started April 1, said a person at JFE who asked not to be identified because the information hasn’t been made public.

http://www.businessweek.com/news/2010-06-01/jfe-agrees-to-12-5-coking-coal-price-gain-with-bhp-update1-.html

[digger]

But Logen, there just might be a market for the little pieces of graben. PRC could bag some small pieces up and sent them to the PRC shareholders. While worthless to most people (same as a good share of information thus far from PRC management), it would probably be considered priceless to those in the PRC cheerleading camp. With it they'd actually have something to show for the last couple of years worth of delays in production.

There very well could be a time to buy PRC shares with more than ample time for entry, but for now, I'd feel safer buying a small bag of graben from them to limit my exposure. :lol:

I would say now is a very good time to but PRC. Firstly production is not far away and secondly the just finished cash issue will give a lot of investers a chance for a quick profit. From 88 cents to a dollars is pretty good in this market for such a short time. Investers could very well look at that % turnover and take the bird in the hand,making more sellers now than will be available in the future.

[Balance]

There is a very good reason why PRC sp is falling.

Watch it fall some more.

[JoeBlogs]

Agreed digger, that and the fact that people like me are already fully invested in the thing and have no spare cash to top up!

Oh god, welcome back balance, way to kick it off - remember - mods are watching - if you have information to substantiate that post - lets have it. Otherwise bugger off!

[mouse]

There is a very good reason why PRC sp is falling.

Watch it fall some more.
Welcome back Balance. But please tell us the reason. :)

[Balance]

Welcome back Balance. But please tell us the reason. :)

I will leave it to the Pikers to come out with the reason.

Remember - thy are the experts and must know why.

[digger]

I will leave it to the Pikers to come out with the reason.

Remember - thy are the experts and must know why.

OK on the same logic [or is it the lack of] i will say PIKE has a great future but leave it to Balance and co to explain why.

[clips]

big up's too balance....... put up or shut up

[Silverlight]

Presentation

https://www.i-search.nzx.com/blobs/NZXPRC/2010/331041/NZXPRC-120455.pdf

[Baddarcy]

Page 6 is the only bit i wanted to see. If you compare the picture of progress from the announcement of the 20th April, you can clearly see that they have now completed the 2nd road through the graben since then.

You can also see they have been mining coal on the other side of the graben and also south of pit bottom.

But typical PRC, hide the good new news on page 6 of a report that is just all old news !! Why not just come out and say, the second road through the graben has been completed and progress has been made on the other side of the graben as well as south of pit bottom!!!!

And as an aside, it would appear Balance is full of something unheathly.

[JoeBlogs]

Yip, that pic was all I wanted to see from that presentation. Surely some timing info re the next shipment wouldn't be too hard to scrape together?

[swissboy]

yep. First thing I did was to superimpose the map to the 31 March Q activity Report. The 2nd Roadway has made it's way 38 meters back into coal and both are now on their way to the 1st hydro-panel. Of interest is the fact, just re-read from the earlier report, that, before they can start Hydro-mining they must run both roadways the whole 200m length on each side of the panel hence full production not due to start until the July quarter. At least they have progressed without any great hiccups and it should now be faster digging in coal. The southern side of Pit-bottom roadways has also been increased. Good on them!!!

[JoeBlogs]

swissboy, any idea on ballpark extraction given the diagram? Not sure I want to even start trying to work that one out :)

[mr.needs]

I would say now is a very good time to but PRC. Firstly production is not far away and secondly the just finished cash issue will give a lot of investers a chance for a quick profit. From 88 cents to a dollars is pretty good in this market for such a short time. Investers could very well look at that % turnover and take the bird in the hand,making more sellers now than will be available in the future.

Not sure I agree with your logic here. It's a bit of a stretch to say the new shares have gone from 88c to 98c, when you consider the fact the rights were trading in the range of 15 to 19c.

Investors would have been better off selling the rights for 17c last month than they would be selling the shares for a 10c premium today. Not really a quick profit at all is it?

[JoeBlogs]

I think we're talking about shares that were issued for 88c (without rights) - e.g. insitutional palcement, underwritten shortfall of rights issue.

[Baddarcy]

I think we're talking about shares that were issued for 88c (without rights) - e.g. insitutional palcement, underwritten shortfall of rights issue.

I think (from memory) that the institutions that participated in the $10m placement also DID get rights in the subsequent issue on the placement shares.

[JoeBlogs]

Rights to purchase shares at the purchase priced you've just paid for the shares? That just sounds like paperwork exercise - i.e. it turns a $10 mil placement into an $11 mil placement. Still, wouldn't suprise me.

[the machine]

yep. First thing I did was to superimpose the map to the 31 March Q activity Report. The 2nd Roadway has made it's way 38 meters back into coal and both are now on their way to the 1st hydro-panel. Of interest is the fact, just re-read from the earlier report, that, before they can start Hydro-mining they must run both roadways the whole 200m length on each side of the panel hence full production not due to start until the July quarter. At least they have progressed without any great hiccups and it should now be faster digging in coal. The southern side of Pit-bottom roadways has also been increased. Good on them!!!

guess roadways either side of hydro panels keeps in clean with well defined edges - stops the water cannon straying off in wrong direction

M

[dsurf]

Yip, that pic was all I wanted to see from that presentation. Surely some timing info re the next shipment wouldn't be too hard to scrape together?

All I wanted to see was no slippage for "hydro mining to start in the Jul to Sep quarter". IF this timetable holds the market should begin to unwind some of the current discount in the SP.

Discl - hold prcoa - see Sep as a key month!

[Balance]

Big day on the Dow and PRC's sp is slipping.

I wonder why?

[JoeBlogs]

So do I, it's a pitty you don't know why or you could enlighten us all. Just comes down to good old fear and greed.

[Baddarcy]

The market won't move until there is some concrete good news from PRC. It will just bob around on small volume until then.

Burying good news on Page 6 of a 15 page report isn't going to get the markets attention i am afraid.

It's just a waiting game now.......................................

[dsurf]

Big day on the Dow and PRC's sp is slipping.

I wonder why?

What is your current PRC position ie, short, none, long as I am wondering why you are wondering why!

Discl: prcoa

[Balance]

What is your current PRC position ie, short, none, long as I am wondering why you are wondering why!

Discl: prcoa

I know the answer.

I am waiting for the Pikers to come up with theirs.

[Dr_Who]

Teck CEO sees silver lining in Australian mining tax

A proposed 40 per cent mining tax in Australia could actually benefit Teck Resources Ltd. if coking coal producers in that country scale back production and push prices higher, says Teck president and CEO Don Lindsay.

http://www.thestar.com/business/article/818710--teck-ceo-sees-silver-lining-in-australian-mining-tax

[Balance]

Look at the sellers now piling in at sell at 98 cents.

Seems like more and more out there are aware of what I know.

Over to the Pikers to figure this one out.

Cheers.

[Logen Ninefingers]

Look at the sellers now piling in at sell at 98 cents.

Seems like more and more out there are aware of what I know.


Project "Blue Duck Enhancement" has suffered a major setback????? Say it ain't so Joe.

[Balance]

Project "Blue Duck Enhancement" has suffered a major setback????? Say it ain't so Joe.

Good one!

Pikers to the rescue!

[Baddarcy]

Look at the sellers now piling in at sell at 98 cents.

Seems like more and more out there are aware of what I know.

Over to the Pikers to figure this one out.

Cheers.

So why have the options gone up then?

[JoeBlogs]

Project "Blue Duck Enhancement" has suffered a major setback????? Say it ain't so Joe

No, project pukeko (as it's now known) is right on track. There has been some negative sentiment propagated by a bitter ex blue duck supporter, but the wise and rational continue to see straight through it.


So why have the options gone up then?

Same reason the heads are floating aimlesly - illiquidity and lack of new information.

[Sehnsucht888]

Look at the sellers now piling in at sell at 98 cents.

Seems like more and more out there are aware of what I know.

Over to the Pikers to figure this one out.

Cheers.


Wow, 100,000 shares traded today.. If lots of people are aware of an issue, then they don't seem to care that much. On the otherhard, if just you and a few know of an issue, then that would be grounds for a halt of trading - in any real market. Maybe not NZX of the wild west....

In any case why don't you just say it, as alluding to it is not helping anyone, give the detail ... Oh wait - you don't care about anyone else .. That's right, it;s just playing/manipulating the game...
Would be interesting that should there actually be a problem, wheher anyone cares about news leaking. Certainly the ASX has penalties..

[mouse]

Balance. As I understand this information board you can get some 'inside' information and make suitable trades before you share the information. But Balance, you are frankly 'Not British' to make comments without giving the reasons. It is thoroughly bad form etc. Hopefully you will turn over a new leaf.

[fabs]

Not every body is as quick, with FACTS and REASONS like the ISRAELIS:

[Hoop]

Balance ....couldn't resist :D:cool:....accumulated more Pike shares today.

[mouse]

Balance ....couldn't resist :D:cool:....accumulated more Pike shares today.
Congratulations. They must be a good buy now. Unfortunately I do not have spare cash. The car.............................. ***** my wife managed to back it into a power pole. Slow speed, but could be a write off. Only 100,000 kms. So money must be kept in the pocket of mouse for a bit. But they do look to be a 'buy'. Ignore Balance. We have a Patriotic Duty to support Pike.

[Hoop]

Congratulations. They must be a good buy now. Unfortunately I do not have spare cash. The car.............................. ***** my wife managed to back it into a power pole. Slow speed, but could be a write off. Only 100,000 kms. So money must be kept in the pocket of mouse for a bit. But they do look to be a 'buy'. Ignore Balance. We have a Patriotic Duty to support Pike.
Thx Mouse...however the "never buy into a late Friday market" rule has struck again...overseas markets tanked big time last night my buy in looks in hindsight a rather mis-timed venture...oh well...its not the first time and it certainly won't be last time I've done that....the joys of investing:p

[JoeBlogs]

Never look back Hoop ;)

Mouse, my bloody car has also kept any spare cash at bay this month - otherwise I'd be loading up!

[winner69]

Balance ....couldn't resist :D:cool:....accumulated more Pike shares today.

Do I read you properly ..... Balance accumulated more Pike shares today

[Vtrader]

W69
think is reads that Hoop was advising Balance (and all of ST) that Hoop accumulated Pike shares Friday. However could be some sort of code...

V.

[Dr_Who]

Alot of corporate activities in the coking coal sector globally. I am wondering if PRC is also a potential T/O target once they can show they can produce the coal.

Looks like the underwriters have nearly finished selling the rights issue shortfall? Anyway, who knows whats going on under the mine, unless you have insider info.

[Hoop]

Do I read you properly ..... Balance accumulated more Pike shares today

LOL...would't surprise me:):D


W69
think is reads that Hoop was advising Balance (and all of ST) that Hoop accumulated Pike shares Friday. However could be some sort of code...

V.

Yep the first sentence was correct V...I missed putting the word "I" in my post so maybe a bit ambiguous.

I think though, W69 is putting the stick into me (and balance) a little bit..he probably wondering why the heck did I buy these things when the overall market is going down and of all times.. a friday afternoon before a long 3 day weekend... kinda wondering myself:confused:


Alot of corporate activities in the coking coal sector globally. I am wondering if PRC is also a potential T/O target once they can show they can produce the coal......

yes I think they are a future target of some description. We all know that NZO is naturally in the oil business not the coal business, so I personally think NZO have done a smart move in re-financing and gaining some production rights in the deal. This deal including the shares could be done up as a total package deal (synergistic value) and sold to some coal using business later when Pike is derisked and up and running.

[bermuda]

Judging by whats happened to the coking coal price and whats happened in Aussie ( Rudd ) this should be a standout investment for NZOG. Good things take time.

[Corporate]

Judging by whats happened to the coking coal price and whats happened in Aussie ( Rudd ) this should be a standout investment for NZOG. Good things take time.

I just pulled up the two year chart for PRC. It is amazing to think that the share price was $2.20+

It would be great to see Pike producing 1mtpa!

Does anyone know what the current hard coking coal price is?

[Corporate]

ops, latest presentations says $200 per tonne.

[JoeBlogs]

And that's pretty conservative. It's not a liquid comodity at all, but some contracts have attracted spot prices up to $230 recently if I'm not mistaken.

If you look at other HCC producers, their share prices have recovered to almost peak levels, so I would not be inconceivable to see PRC up around the $2 mark very quickly if it can achieve production targets over the next year.

[mouse]

Never look back Hoop ;)

Mouse, my bloody car has also kept any spare cash at bay this month - otherwise I'd be loading up!
Should I buy a new car or more Pike? Which would have more effect on the Environment, the new car or Pike shares? Hopefuly the old car can be repaired. Beware of Power Poles. Even ones at the back of you are dangerous!

[Corporate]

And that's pretty conservative. It's not a liquid comodity at all, but some contracts have attracted spot prices up to $230 recently if I'm not mistaken.

If you look at other HCC producers, their share prices have recovered to almost peak levels, so I would not be inconceivable to see PRC up around the $2 mark very quickly if it can achieve production targets over the next year.

Since it's pouring with rain outside (and I'm slight hung over) I'm going to spend a few hours today going over Pike again. I do see some value, management just need to deliver now.

The DOW tanked 3%+ on Friday so Monday/Tuesday could be a good buying opportunity.

Does anyone have a list of comparable coal companies in Australia?

[JoeBlogs]

Thanks Corporate, I'll be interested to see what you come up with. Here are a few comparable companies, although not all completely focussed on HCC:

Macarthur Coal Ltd (MCC:ASX) is probibly the best comparison I can find - particularly if you consider the takeover target potential for PRC when it's in full swing.

Also, out of China:

Yanzhou Coal Mining Company Limited, Huolinhe Opencut Coal Ind Corp. Ltd, Pingdingshan Tianan Coal Mining Co Ltd.

Given than Monday is a holiday in NZ, you might find some goods pickings on the ASX listing.

[COLIN]

Since it's pouring with rain outside (and I'm slight hung over) I'm going to spend a few hours today going over Pike again. I do see some value, management just need to deliver now.

The DOW tanked 3%+ on Friday so Monday/Tuesday could be a good buying opportunity.

Does anyone have a list of comparable coal companies in Australia?

Have you ever looked at HUN on the ASX? They've certainly provided a lot more excitement and rewards over recent months than PRC. They are pursuing both coking and thermal coal, and appear to have an excellent business planning strategy. Study the thread, and links.

[Baddarcy]

Pike River Coal has been wooing potential investors and customers at a conference in Bali about its plan for mid-2011 steady state production to take advantage of firm coal prices.

Chairman John Dow said PRC managing director Gordon Ward earlier this month visited a Coaltrans Asia 2010 conference giving industry representatives an overview of the West Coast coal miner.

Potential new investors including fund managers had been told of PRC's plan to use hydromining or high-pressure water cutting – starting in the July to September quarter.

"The Coaltrans conference was a new forum for us. So it was very much an introduction of Pike to Asian customers and investors ... it's important we let people know what we're up to," Dow said.

PRC is estimating a $225 a tonne sales price for its high-quality coking coal once it reached steady state production around mid 2011 after the ramping up of hydromining.

The company estimated cash costs per tonne to be deducted from that revenue line would be $55 for mining $40 for transport and $10 for royalties and overheads, a total of $105.

That would leave a margin before interest, tax and depreciation of $120 a tonne.

The sales price was a broker consensus of US$136 for a long-term average with US$3 a tonne deduction to reflect the average price for Pike hard coking coal. That was converted at a NZD:USD 0.59 rate to reflect the long-term average cross rate since the Kiwi floated.

At present PRC had 55 per cent of its "life of mine" coal sold to its two Indian shareholders Gujarat NRE and Saurashtra Fuels Private, with other coal sold to Japanese steel mills.

"That will mean over the first three years we will have over 70 per cent of the output committed," Dow said.

"And over that period of time (cornerstone shareholder New Zealand Oil & Gas) has an option over the remaining 30 per cent ... if they decline to do that then obviously we can sell the coal on the spot market.

"We expect it will be an easy enough exercise because this is premium coal, and proven in demand."

It expects $NZ4 billion of sales over the life of the mine.

PRC's costs during the ramp-up in the period to June 10 have mostly been capitalised.

The latest prices in the market for coking coal have been around the US$240 to US$270 a tonne range.

The economic worries out of Europe, had not impacted demand out of Asia, Dow said.

"If anything the price remains firm ... that speaks volumes for demand."

Pike shares last traded at 95 cents within a 12-month range of 85c to $1.23.

Ad Feedback McDouall Stuart analyst John Kidd in his most recent report on PRC said that ironically a long string of production delays had worked strongly to the company's benefit.

"If PRC had achieved production of 1 (million tonnes a year) in FY10 as it had expected to at the time of its initial public offering, at the 2009/10 ... benchmark of US$128 a tonne PRC's full-year revenue would have totalled circa NZ$180m.

"Instead, at current price levels of US$240-$250 a tonne and FX of $0.70, PRC's revenue base would exceed NZ$340m a year."

[Dr_Who]

PRC no debt with enough cash to see them through for a few years. PRC wont be expected to pay tax for a number of years. Pretty good position to be in.

[Baddarcy]

PRC no debt with enough cash to see them through for a few years. PRC wont be expected to pay tax for a number of years. Pretty good position to be in.

Yes agreed, the previous years losses will come in useful hopefully in the 10/11 year. Just waiting for some news now on progress at the mine.

[Balance]

Yes agreed, the previous years losses will come in useful hopefully in the 10/11 year. Just waiting for some news now on progress at the mine.

Sp drifting lower. You know what that means with PRC, don't you?

[Sehnsucht888]

Sp drifting lower. You know what that means with PRC, don't you?

Ah Balance, welcome back.. I was just thinking that the Buy signal had arrived - Balance quiet for a week.
PRC is down 7% so far this month, which is a bit more than a lot of stocks, but not as bad as some.. Part of being a non producer (well non regular producer).
On volume of about 1.3 million shares on 7 tading days. Certainly in a bit of a down trend, but looking at volumes they have dropped well off.

Been a week since your last round of implying that there was something going on and you knew, but the market didn't. Yes the shareprice has gone done, not many haven't though.

[mr.needs]

BIG fall in OAs today:scared:

[Ayrton]

only $210.12 worth though

[Balance]

Ah Balance, welcome back.. I was just thinking that the Buy signal had arrived - Balance quiet for a week.
PRC is down 7% so far this month, which is a bit more than a lot of stocks, but not as bad as some.. Part of being a non producer (well non regular producer).
On volume of about 1.3 million shares on 7 tading days. Certainly in a bit of a down trend, but looking at volumes they have dropped well off.

Been a week since your last round of implying that there was something going on and you knew, but the market didn't. Yes the shareprice has gone done, not many haven't though.

Have you checked the sp of the coal miners in Oz? MCC, GCL or HUN (as mentioned here)? They have all gone up in the last 3 weeks while PRC has been dropping and dropping.

There is a reason for that and it is not nearly as sinister as most of you jump to by way of conclusion.

Word is that underwriters have been selling down their 2m odd shares from the shortfall and some of the lucky instos who obtained placement shares at 88 cents have also been selling.

Good news is that they are now towards the end.

Bad news is that you guys trust in PRC's management so much you happily approved preferential treatment to selected NEW instos to get placement shares at 88 cents. Nice quick profit for them. Long suffering shareholder gets 2 new shares at 88 cents for 19 existing shares. Go figure.

I wonder who has been buying?

[JoeBlogs]

Balance, that topic has been done to death - as it was pointed out long ago, PRC would have been very lucky to get more than 88 c at the time of negotiation.

You have clearly been trying to mislead us into thinking the reason for the SP drift IS more sinister - fortunately, few of us now grace your opinions with our attention. It has been well documented that sell-off of placement shares and general market sentiment have caused the drop in price.

Anyway, with the great sell-off nearing an end, and confirmation out of China yesterday that it's still going strong - today will be the turn around point. Again, I'm just sorry I didn't have any spare cash over the recent period, or the answer to your last question would have included me. I'm pretty sure you would also be buying - whether or not it's short covering.

[digger]

Have you checked the sp of the coal miners in Oz? MCC, GCL or HUN (as mentioned here)? They have all gone up in the last 3 weeks while PRC has been dropping and dropping.

There is a reason for that and it is not nearly as sinister as most of you jump to by way of conclusion.

Word is that underwriters have been selling down their 2m odd shares from the shortfall and some of the lucky instos who obtained placement shares at 88 cents have also been selling.

Good news is that they are now towards the end.

Bad news is that you guys trust in PRC's management so much you happily approved preferential treatment to selected NEW instos to get placement shares at 88 cents. Nice quick profit for them. Long suffering shareholder gets 2 new shares at 88 cents for 19 existing shares. Go figure.

I wonder who has been buying?

Good post Balance.For once all your info is correct as i see it.At the time of the cash issue i did think PIKE should have let shareholders oversubscribe and that would have avoided the sell off from the 88cent placement and quick profit from non PIKE shareholders.Still for about the first time ever i agree with everything in your post number 5150

[blockhead]

I was wondering myself what had caused such a balanced post, if he was a politician (and not busy watching porn) I would say "you have softened your stance Balance"

Well done

[Balance]

Good post Balance.For once all your info is correct as i see it.At the time of the cash issue i did think PIKE should have let shareholders oversubscribe and that would have avoided the sell off from the 88cent placement and quick profit from non PIKE shareholders.Still for about the first time ever i agree with everything in your post number 5150

I can tell you that PRC management was asked about why the preferential treatment to NEW instos and the answer was deafening silence. Remember the placement was done to the instos when the sp was above $1.10 - not when the sp was 90c. PRC has renegotiated many contracts over the last 3 years, no?

[JoeBlogs]

Technicals: I was interested to see this morning that for PRC the BDI seems to have turned up after weeks of negative readings.

[dsurf]

Technicals: I was interested to see this morning that for PRC the BDI seems to have turned up after weeks of negative readings.

BDI? Can you enlighten me please as I am interested & all I can think of is Balanced Depth Indicator, which could either give a ratio of the buy / sell depth ( unreliable as too easy to manipulate IMO) or a sentiment indicator of the "warm fuzzies on this site" and the turnaround in sentiment due to a prolific contrarian poster who like Macbeth should not be named.

[Balance]

BDI? Can you enlighten me please as I am interested & all I can think of is Balanced Depth Indicator, which could either give a ratio of the buy / sell depth ( unreliable as too easy to manipulate IMO) or a sentiment indicator of the "warm fuzzies on this site" and the turnaround in sentiment due to a prolific contrarian poster who like Macbeth should not be named.

How meaningful are technicals when you are dealing with several 'big' sellers who got cheap stock courtesy of PRC.

Don't be in a big hurry - watch for a market crossing of around 500,000 shares next week. Then, watch the shares move up. Why allow the underwriters and placement instos to make more money off you?

But then, I guess it's a case of whether or not you can get access to that line of stock?

Gave you guys plenty of opportunity to dig around the market to know what's going on with sp dropping - even while the Oz coal miners were going up.

[Logen Ninefingers]

How meaningful are technicals when you are dealing with several 'big' sellers who got cheap stock courtesy of PRC.

Don't be in a big hurry - watch for a market crossing of around 500,000 shares next week. Then, watch the shares move up. Why allow the underwriters and placement instos to make more money off you?

But then, I guess it's a case of whether or not you can get access to that line of stock?

Gave you guys plenty of opportunity to dig around the market to know what's going on with sp dropping - even while the Oz coal miners were going up.

Yeah, but surely this is not a huge surprise. Every time there's been a capital raising recently with any company it's sent the SP lower. Why would you be out there paying top dollar for shares when you know more are being made available at lower prices? Invariably many of the holders are not going to be in for the long haul, they will just dump their shares at the best price they can get and nail a good profit. With greater liquidity comes lower prices - supply and demand. When the Smartpay cap raising was announced recently the SP immediately dropped to the price that the offer was being made at - it immediately became the price everyone was prepared to pay. The PGC cap raising just killed the SP. You can see examples everywhere.

A cap raising = lower SP: I can't see that you've made an astoundingly informative post.

[Balance]

Yeah, but surely this is not a huge surprise. Every time there's been a capital raising recently with any company it's sent the SP lower. Why would you be out there paying top dollar for shares when you know more are being made available at lower prices? Invariably many of the holders are not going to be in for the long haul, they will just dump their shares at the best price they can get and nail a good profit. With greater liquidity comes lower prices - supply and demand. When the Smartpay cap raising was announced recently the SP immediately dropped to the price that the offer was being made at - it immediately became the price everyone was prepared to pay. The PGC cap raising just killed the SP. You can see examples everywhere.

A cap raising = lower SP: I can't see that you've made an astoundingly informative post.

If only it was that simple and that obvious - judging by the various reasons put forward in the last 2 weeks for the sp fall.

[Logen Ninefingers]

If only it was that simple and that obvious - judging by the various reasons put forward in the last 2 weeks for the sp fall.

Well I guess the underlying reason for selling still has to do with continued uncertainty over when something approaching an acceptable level of production will occur. Many sellers will have taken the opportunity to make a profit right here and now while in is being served up on a plate, instead of crystal ball gazing into what the future may be. Obviously if steady production was occuring now the determination to hold rather than sell would increase.

[JoeBlogs]

BDI = [poster whos name we dare not utter] Directional Indicator, very closely related to the BSO (bull-**** oscillator). OK, I'm sorry, that's enough ;)

[Phaedrus]

One of the advantages of TA is that (theoretically at least!) it allows us an unbiased assessment of any given stock. PRC has attracted more than the usual amount of dissention and protagonists on both sides are arguing from entrenched positions that are rooted in emotional attachment or antipathy to the stock. Telling it how it is, here then is the sweet voice of reason. The most likely outcome is that I will get stick from both sides!

PRC is in a short-term downtrend, with a confirmed trendline (red) in place. The Relative Strength Index (14) is also falling so this is not the time to buy.

PRC is not a good stock to trade short-term, but those that want to could do a lot worse than utilise RSI based signals. Notice, though, how this indicator gave a string of useless "Sell" signals when PRC was in a strong uptrend. (circled in red) Observe, too, the useless string of "Buy" signals when PRC was in that long downtrend. (circled in green) Lesson :- Use trend indicators when stocks are trending. Note the excellent, timely and profitable RSI signals since PRC has been trendless.

See how well volume derived signals from the OBV confirm the price trendline break buy/sell signals. (Large red and green arrows).

Over the longer term (1 year) PRC is in a Descending Broadening Wedge. The odds are high that this formation will eventually be broken to the Upside. (79% probability)

With a stock more or less tracking sideways like this, it really doesn't matter whether you are in or out. So much heated discission over........ nothing!

http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/tt102/PhaedrusPB/PRC611.gif

[Logen Ninefingers]

I guess all the speculation and heated discussion is to be expected when steady production hasn't been reached, and this is a state of play running into years now. All the talk just fills up the void created by constant hope and expectation that something will happen. Then you look at the protagonists: on one side die-hard Pike supporters who are either convinced that Pike is the key to personal wealth, or even that it's our patriotic duty as NZers to support it. They are definitely long-term holders desperate for the SP to go gang-busters, and they bristle at any suggestion it won't. On the other side is a force (one man army?) who see PRC as just another stock among many, to be traded to a profit, and are intent on confronting this staunch band and pricking their balloon of confidence.

[mouse]

I guess all the speculation and heated discussion is to be expected when steady production hasn't been reached, and this is a state of play running into years now. All the talk just fills up the void created by constant hope and expectation that something will happen. Then you look at the protagonists: on one side die-hard Pike supporters who are either convinced that Pike is the key to personal wealth, or even that it's our patriotic duty as NZers to support it. They are definitely long-term holders desperate for the SP to go gang-busters, and they bristle at any suggestion it won't. On the other side is a force (one man army?) who see PRC as just another stock among many, to be traded to a profit, and are intent on confronting this staunch band and pricking their balloon of confidence.
Patriotic Duty sold at about $1.10 and bought at 89cents. I should have held out for 85cents but lost my nerve. And it is our Patriotic Duty to stop the sp going too low since we then give away good companies to Oz or worse for a song. If we are going to sell, make a profit at least. I will now buy at 90cents if I can. Patriotic Duty and so on. And I have some 'rights' to cover should sp get higher than $1.25

[Dr_Who]

Alot of corporate activities in the coking coal sector globally. I am wondering if PRC is also a potential T/O target once they can show they can produce the coal.

Looks like the underwriters have nearly finished selling the rights issue shortfall? Anyway, who knows whats going on under the mine, unless you have insider info.

Anyone down south with access to a pub where the miners work can update us on the progress on the tunneling? :)

[Kees]

drove over to lyttleton the other day see if the stock pile was getting any bigger pike's heap ain't but the other company that ships coal out of there
certainly is , pike's heap is no bigger than when they shipped out the last time so no growth there yet , lyttleton port company have put up a sign with the extension plan
on it looks impressive but you would think the machinery to do the work be already on site to get on with it does not seem to be in a hurry.
pie in the sky your guess is as good as mine.

[Aotea]

Dr Who, last time I spoke of the word on the street from the Blackball Pub, I was called the biggest a-hole in town. As it was, I was right then and Pike has continued to look like turkeys. That said, word on the street now is they are into the good coal and are getting plenty of it. my cobber there says I should buy back into Pike based on the very positive news of actual extraction..this is only speculation of course, and am only passing on the word. Personally, Im over Pike and lost too much the first time to buy back in....

[JoeBlogs]

pike's heap is no bigger than when they shipped out the last time

That's about what you'd expect if things are running to plan i.e. they should be getting ready for another small shipment.

[Dr_Who]

Dr Who, last time I spoke of the word on the street from the Blackball Pub, I was called the biggest a-hole in town. As it was, I was right then and Pike has continued to look like turkeys. That said, word on the street now is they are into the good coal and are getting plenty of it. my cobber there says I should buy back into Pike based on the very positive news of actual extraction..this is only speculation of course, and am only passing on the word. Personally, Im over Pike and lost too much the first time to buy back in....

Hey thanks for the info. Much appreciated.

[Dr_Who]

An interesting interview...

Teck’s Don Lindsay weathers the storm

Does it affect you?

Not directly, because our assets in Australia aren’t in operation at the moment but if Australia really does it, then logically there will be less investment there, particularly in coking coal. That would mean less coking coal, so prices would be higher.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/managing/at-the-top/tecks-don-lindsay-weathers-the-storm/article1602615/

[dsurf]

Dr Who, last time I spoke of the word on the street from the Blackball Pub, I was called the biggest a-hole in town. As it was, I was right then and Pike has continued to look like turkeys. That said, word on the street now is they are into the good coal and are getting plenty of it. my cobber there says I should buy back into Pike based on the very positive news of actual extraction..this is only speculation of course, and am only passing on the word. Personally, Im over Pike and lost too much the first time to buy back in....

Cheers aotea - If you believe the workers you should consider a flutter on PRCOA which are at historically cheapish levels. Without worrying about black scholes LTCM black box stuff if the SP increases then these will follow.

[JoeBlogs]

Yep, I think you'd be getting a major bargain this morning at 15.5 c. Now if only the bloody IRD would hurry up with my tax refund......

[shasta]

Yep, I think you'd be getting a major bargain this morning at 15.5 c. Now if only the bloody IRD would hurry up with my tax refund......

Ring the IRD & say you need the refund on hardship grounds (pay bills etc), that should speed it up

[JoeBlogs]

Hmm, good plan, cheers. I guess it is a hardship when you see a significant opportunity and are not able to take it up ;)

[mouse]

Hmm, good plan, cheers. I guess it is a hardship when you see a significant opportunity and are not able to take it up ;)
Again lost my nerve and have bought 4,000 Pike at 92 cents. Not suffering from Swine Flu, it is Swine Poo. Serious so up all night. Still not recovered. I shall blame Swine Poo if I get in the poo with this one. But I dought I shall.
What interests me is the price of the 'rights' at 15 cents. With the shares in April next year being $1.25 plus 'rights' cost at 15 cents. So that is $1.40. That is the bet you are taking. It is only nine or ten months away. The shares may well go up to that, but I would prefer to lock in the price at 90 cents now. Can we have comments please? But not on Swine Poo, aviod it if possible.

[Logen Ninefingers]

Again lost my nerve and have bought 4,000 Pike at 92 cents.

I wouldn't call it losing your nerve. You bought at a good time last time and turned it into a nice little earner when the SP spiked. It only takes one little piece of good news like coal prices rising or some announcement from the mine and it'll jump up again. I can't help feeling that these analysis charts are looking at data and interpreting it in hindsight; the reality is that news influences buying and selling decisions and when some news will be forthcoming that will trigger a rally is a total unknown....it could be tomorrow, it could be weeks away.

[wk6332]

just for interest dose anyone know anthing about Buller Coal on the west coast of the south Island Low ask coking coal ?,(Bathurst Resources BTU on ASX) which intends to list on the NZX this year. It might be werth a punt.


Dic. I hold PRC & BTU

[JoeBlogs]

I can't help feeling that these analysis charts are looking at data and interpreting it in hindsight

You're dead right there, it's pretty easy to analyse a chart in hindsight and point to how technicals have provided good signals. PRC still has a degree of speculation in it, it's why I like it, and why it may not follow some of the accepted norms of stock price movement. At this stage it's simply a case of: do you believe the company can do what they say they can, or do you think they'll fall flat on their faces.

The reason the SP is at such discounted levels is the proportion of people who believe the latter. If we're right in believing they will succeed, the potential is huge. I'll say it once again, I don't really care about technicalls, and I don't look at this stock through rose tinted glasses - I'm happy to be critical when necessary (and there have been many occasions that call for it). The simple fact is that I believe the market has severely underestimated the potential here based on past events that have little or no bearing on the future, therefore the SP is artificially depressed, and represents excellent value - history will prove me right or wrong.

Oh, and I don't get emotionally attatched to shares - they will either make me money, or not. If I want a thrill, I go to the casino.

[swissboy]

I have held Pike shares representing more than 20% of all my shares and, like others I hope things do come right, but my first thought is (what else can possibly go wrong) we have had every possible delay already.
The start of the high production period starts within 14 days. July to September quarter but at what part of the 3 month period will us long suffering shareholders be informed??? I assume the lack of any information means that they have so far not had any further problems, as they should notify any further hic-ups.

[Logen Ninefingers]

I have held Pike shares representing more than 20% of all my shares and, like others I hope things do come right, but my first thought is (what else can possibly go wrong) we have had every possible delay already.
The start of the high production period starts within 14 days. July to September quarter but at what part of the 3 month period will us long suffering shareholders be informed??? I assume the lack of any information means that they have so far not had any further problems, as they should notify any further hic-ups.

I dunno....I've kind of got a bad feeling. Institutional investors got a good deal under the capital raising, things have been very quiet during the capital raising period and subsequent sell-off at a healthy SP, which is good for Pike, their major shareholders, and their institutional friends. What would have been even better for them all during this period would be to issue a statement to the effect that everything was on track & advising how much coal was now stock-piled. SP would have stayed up, more money to be made all round. Instead, it's been eerily quiet. Now that the shares have been distributed & Pike have their funds to keep going, maybe a new announcement is due soon.

[JoeBlogs]

The main issue I have at the moment is that they are scheduled to ship some coal this month, and as yet we have no timing information. How hard is it to say either 'we are planning to ship within the next couple of weeks' or 'the shipment has been delayed'. The market expects the latter based on past experience - I hope they're wrong.

[Logen Ninefingers]

The main issue I have at the moment is that they are scheduled to ship some coal this month, and as yet we have no timing information. How hard is it to say either 'we are planning to ship within the next couple of weeks' or 'the shipment has been delayed'. The market expects the latter based on past experience - I hope they're wrong.

I seem to remember that in the run up to the first small shipment there was a lot of fanfare from Pike and the details were everywhere.

[Casa del Energia]

just for interest dose anyone know anthing about Buller Coal on the west coast of the south Island Low ask coking coal ?,(Bathurst Resources BTU on ASX) which intends to list on the NZX this year. It might be werth a punt.


Dic. I hold PRC & BTU

Only what was reported in the Wesport News -

Front page 15th June:

( give the link rather than cut n paste:)

http://westportnews.co.nz/tuesday.pdf

[JoeBlogs]

Logen, I've tried to get more info out of them, but they assure me if any relevant information comes to hand they will report it in accordance with full disclosure etc. I take that to mean they have no reason to believe the shipment will not leave before end of June - if they do, they are breaking the law by not disclosing it. I will keep hold of the email just incase.....

[Robomo]

Just received the following email from ASB regarding my margin lending account. Presumably ASB follow the charts and not the actual physical status of the mine / coal prices etc. Unless they know something we don't know????

Lending against the following securities will be increased:

Code Company Existing LVR New LVR

APT AMP Office Trust 65% 70%
FPA Fisher & Paykel Appliances 50% 60%
ING ING Property Trust 60% 65%
NPX Nuplex Industries 50% 60%
RBD Restaurant Brands 50% 55%

Lending against the following securities will be reduced:

Code Company Existing LVR New LVR
MLN Marlin Global 60% 50%

Lending against the following security will be suspended:
Code Company Effective Date
PRC Pike River Coal 17 June 2010
Following Pike River Coal’s recent rights issue, lending has been suspended as our stock exposure limits have now been reached. Under a suspension, all existing lending in place prior to the suspension date will be maintained until the securities are sold. All future purchases will not have lending provided.

[Paint it Black]

Logen, I've tried to get more info out of them, but they assure me if any relevant information comes to hand they will report it in accordance with full disclosure etc. I take that to mean they have no reason to believe the shipment will not leave before end of June - if they do, they are breaking the law by not disclosing it. I will keep hold of the email just incase.....

Yes - with June more than half through one would have thought some reassurances re the next shipment would be forthcoming to the loyal shareholders who participated in the rights issue only to see the head share fade almost to the option price. With the rights selling at around 15c at the exercise date a significant paper loss has been incurred due to the lack of communication. The longer this lasts the lower the price will fall as potential buyers anticipate the greater likelihood of bad news.

[Dr_Who]

That's interesting about asb leverage adjustment. Thanks Robomo.

[Lion]

Robomo - I got that too. I don't think it means anything much. Here's some more of their email . .


Please note that while we publish lending ratios and announce variations to approved securities, this does not imply a recommendation in respect of that security or make any representation relating to past or future performance of that security. Lending ratios are set by ASB Bank Ltd for the purpose of managing the business and should not be taken as an investment recommendation.

"Stock exposure limits have now been reached" - hmm, could possibly mean they don't like PRC, but more likely they have lots of margin lending on PRC already and try not to let any company exceed a certain proportion of the total.

JoeBlogs post #5178 above - great post, I wish I had said that! (But I don't get a thrill from the casino myself)

[JoeBlogs]

(But I don't get a thrill from the casino myself)

Well, I only do If I win, and the bloody house always wins, so no, neither do I ;)

[Baddarcy]

Robomo - I got that too. I don't think it means anything much. Here's some more of their email . .


Please note that while we publish lending ratios and announce variations to approved securities, this does not imply a recommendation in respect of that security or make any representation relating to past or future performance of that security. Lending ratios are set by ASB Bank Ltd for the purpose of managing the business and should not be taken as an investment recommendation.

"Stock exposure limits have now been reached" - hmm, could possibly mean they don't like PRC, but more likely they have lots of margin lending on PRC already and try not to let any company exceed a certain proportion of the total.


That is how i read it too. The ASB would have a certain dollar value they were willing to be exposed to on PRC and they have reached it for the moment. Given there has just been a capital raising it is not surprising really.

[Baddarcy]

Logen, I've tried to get more info out of them, but they assure me if any relevant information comes to hand they will report it in accordance with full disclosure etc. I take that to mean they have no reason to believe the shipment will not leave before end of June - if they do, they are breaking the law by not disclosing it. I will keep hold of the email just incase.....

Sorry JB the next shipment is due in July not June. So the wait will continue for a little while yet. Quote below from the March Quarter Activities Report

"The next export 20,000 tonnes is scheduled for July 2010. Once hydro-mining is underway in the July-September 2010 quarter, the typical export shipment size of premium hard coking coal will be approximately 60,000 tonnes, although several early shipments may be contracted at lesser tonnages to assist with company cashflows and also customer requirements."

[Logen Ninefingers]

Yes, it's definitely July. That was confirmed in their presentation to Coaltrans Asia from 30 May to 2 June.

[mouse]

Firstly, we cannot expect steady state production before the end of this year. With a target of 1 million tonnes a year we need to get out around 90,000 tonnes per month, about 3,000 tonnes per day. Hope my maths are approx correct.:)

Secondly, we do not know if all the equipment, including the rail link etc., will be able to 'do the job' since there is a large demand on it. It has to cope with 3,000 tonnes per day.:sleep:

Thirdly, we have some problem over the electricity supply. The wiring etc. Will it work? The power board? has, I think, put in extra cables since switching off the power at the mine otherwise could put out all the lights in Blackball! :ohmy:

Fourthly, the actual miners have to learn how to operate the water cannons to extract the coal. Monkey Poms say that the coal is ideal for hydraulic mining, hopefully our equipment will work at least OK. HOWEVER, I remember reading somewhere that hydraulic mining has not been successful in NZ. :ohmy::eek2:

I have lots of confidence in our Mining Engineers. They seem to know what they are doing and they are not responsible for what is actually underground. :mellow:

SUMMARY, We should know within six months how things are going. I have around $9,000 in shares in Pike. I am quite prepared to lose the lot, but I do not think I will. I feel that we are looking at an annual dividend of between 10cents and 25 cents per share. But that is only an educated guess. :) Hope I am right.

The Rights expire in April next year, only 9 months away. Will Pike be $1.40 then? Hope so. But dont hold your breath :scared:

[impacman]

Quote: "I remember reading somewhere that hydraulic mining has not been successful in NZ."

Hydraulic mining has/had been used very successfully up the road from Pike for some time at the
Strongman 2 mine by Solid Energy. Very impressive to watch and effective from my understanding during my time with them.

[mouse]

Quote: "I remember reading somewhere that hydraulic mining has not been successful in NZ."

Hydraulic mining has/had been used very successfully up the road from Pike for some time at the
Strongman 2 mine by Solid Energy. Very impressive to watch and effective from my understanding during my time with them.

Can you give some more details please. Since we are now into the 'will it work' phase. Which is a little nail-biting. I am very hopeful that things will go in an adequate way. But no miracles yet. We have to 'bed in' both the equipment and the people. Which is more of a problem, equipment or people. Any experience of Strongman would be really worthwhile.

[JoeBlogs]

Sorry JB the next shipment is due in July not June.

Ah right, I got a bit confused there. Now you mention it, I recall it was moved to the next FY. In that case I must apologise for my hastiness with the critique! This raises even more questions for me regarding the recent drift in SP as there have been no material changes to the plan, and if anything we've heard evidence of above forecast advance rates - go figure!

[blockhead]

Maybe a chance to get the good oil (coal), Gordon Ward will be speaking at a Forbar presentation in Ashburton on 1st July in the evening, I can't be there but maybe another of our posters could go along for a listen ?

[patrick]

The July shipment must be on track.
If its not then Directors will be in breach of the Continuous Disclosure rules.

[swissboy]

For Gordon W. to come out of hiding, must only mean good news. 9 more days to the 1st July. It's all easy from now on, as this night is the longest night.

[Baddarcy]

For Gordon W. to come out of hiding, must only mean good news. 9 more days to the 1st July. It's all easy from now on, as this night is the longest night.

Interesting that the 1st is also the beginning of Pike's new financial year too. Am hopeful they will give us some news to excite the share price before the end of the financial year so it looks good in the financial statements and annual report.

Really just an updated map, and details of how much coal is in the yard would keep me happy.

[Wilkins_Micawber]

Really just an updated map, and details of how much coal is in the yard would keep me happy.

No news is ... exactly what you can expect to get from PRC. Or ...
No news is ... good news, cause it beats the bad news we usually seem to be getting.
Sorry, I'm becoming a bit cynical - better stop lest I start to sound Balance

[Baddarcy]

MELBOURNE, Jun 21, 2010 (Dow Jones Commodities News via Comtex) --

Rio Tinto Ltd. (RIO.AU) said Monday it expects metallurgical coal prices to remain high, driven by strong global demand which it expects to grow at about 3% a year out to 2020.

In a presentation to analysts, Rio Tinto Coal Australia Managing Director Bill Champion also gave a bullish view of markets for thermal coal, used for power generation, which he said would be driven by demand from the rapidly growing economies of China and India.

Champion said urbanisation and industrialisation in developing countries was driving up steel consumption and current sources of metallurgical coal, used in the steelmaking process, were unlikely to be able to keep pace.

"Prices are likely to remain high relative to historical levels given the lack of substitutes and rapid demand growth," he said in a presentation slide.

Rio Tinto expects hard coking coal demand to grow at an average rate of about 3% a year out to 2020 with demand from Brazil, India and China expected to grow by about 8% a year over the same period.

Metallurgical coal has in the past been priced in annual negotiations but that system is now breaking down and Champion said the majority of recent shipments from Australia to Asia had been based on a new quarterly prices.

Chinese and Indian consumption was also expected to drive increased demand for seaborne thermal coal which, despite the emergence of energy substitutes, would continue to provide the bulk of power generation for developing economies, he said.

While the percentage of China's power generation that is based on thermal coal is forecast to ease to 75% by 2030 from 81% in 2007, Champion said the huge increase in total power consumption in China meant this would see China's coal fired power generation surge to 6,639 terawatt hours from 2,685 in 2007.

China meets the bulk of its thermal coal demand from domestic production but Champion said that as urbanisation boosted consumption, China's existing mines and infrastructure would be under pressure, boosting demand for imported coal.

In India, thermal coal is expected to account for 71% of power generated in 2030 and contribute 1,935 terawatts up from 537 terawatts in 2007.

"India's thermal coal imports will likely double over the next five years to meet power generation demand," Champion said.

Rio Tinto's Australian coal assets were well placed to benefit from these trends, he said, and the easing of current infrastructure bottlenecks would allow mines to run at installed capacity.

The company has clearly defined growth plans beyond current installed capacity but Champion said this growth potential has been put at risk by the Australian Government's planned new mining tax and all projects have now been put under review.

- By Alex Wilson, Dow Jones Newswires: 613-9292-2094; alex.wilson@dowjones.com

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

[Dr_Who]

Looks like a large shareholders is selling down. Dont know how much they are selling, but once they have finished it can bounce. Of cos, everyone is also waiting for the coal delivery. If they can meet forecast, sp can bounce.

[Baddarcy]

Looks like a large shareholders is selling down. Dont know how much they are selling, but once they have finished it can bounce. Of cos, everyone is also waiting for the coal delivery. If they can meet forecast, sp can bounce.

Yes i've noticed that also, there does seem to be a bit of support from smallish buyers, but everytime over the last couple of weeks that a bit of depth has built up a big seller has cleared it out. Suspect it is someone who got some of the 88c shares taking the profit before the end of the quarter, next week.

The wait shouldn't be much longer now for news, they have said a few times that the next shipment is due to leave in July, so either way, good or bad they will have to say something in the near future. Every indication is that it will be either good (20,000 tonnes) or very good news (more than 20,000).

[freddy]

Every indication is that it will be either good (20,000 tonnes) or very good news (more than 20,000).

Have you heard something? What are the indications?

[JoeBlogs]

The fact that there has been no market update indicates there will be at least 20K shipped in July (or a lawsuit), and wisperings are that advance rates have been better than expected.

[Logen Ninefingers]

I've been reading over what the company has previously stated as the estimate for the July shipment and it was 40,000 tonnes.

[neopoleII]

been watching this for a few days..... not much movement.....
http://www.lpc.co.nz/RP.jasc?Page=N225P2

[JoeBlogs]

Where was that Logen? Only reference I can find is in the March 31 Quarterly activities report:


The next export 20,000 tonnes is scheduled for July 2010.

This is the report where they downgraded FY11 production forecast to 620KT

Will be good if they can top this shipment size, but I doubt it, or we should have heard about it by now.

neopoleII, I see there are only to coal ships forecast within the next month (28/6 and 6/7) - interesting.

[Logen Ninefingers]

Where was that Logen? Only reference I can find is in the March 31 Quarterly activities report:



This is the report where they downgraded FY11 production forecast to 620KT

Will be good if they can top this shipment size, but I doubt it, or we should have heard about it by now.

neopoleII, I see there are only to coal ships forecast within the next month (28/6 and 6/7) - interesting.

Nah, you're right...I was looking at an old quarterly report for period ended 31 December 2009, when they were estimating 40,000 tonnes to ship in April - June.

[JoeBlogs]

They don't make it easy for us ;)

[Baddarcy]

They don't make it easy for us ;)

No... but make it easy for scaremongers like our friend to make stuff up and pass it off as fact.....

[Logen Ninefingers]

Would you believe 10,000 tonnes in August?
1,000 tonnes in September?
A sack of coal in October?
...Just for anyone who remembers the old Get Smart TV show.....

[patrick]

THE most important question with this Company is
CAN WE RELY ON THE DIRECTORS COMPLYING WITH THE DISCLOSURE RULES??

[glennj]

THE most important question with this Company is
CAN WE RELY ON THE DIRECTORS COMPLYING WITH THE DISCLOSURE RULES??

No not based on past performance but they may have changed?


Recent local info release in "Grey Star" was that they have finished the rock work and are into a thick seam of really good easily mined coal. The downside, & there usually is one, is that they are behind schedule with getting the hydro mining underway.

I'm sitting on the sidelines until I see that they can achieve decent volume production.

[neopoleII]

there must be a huge pile of coal sitting by the terminal somewhere with pikes name on it.
it is either there in plain view or they havent mined the coal.
i bet some investors have taken a trip down to the port to have a look....... maybe that is why the sp is going down?
im tempted to fly down and have a look for myself.
its not like insider trading if i had a look at a 20 000 ton coal pile?

[rainey]

The stockpile could still be at the mine or Ikamatua

[Logen Ninefingers]

im tempted to fly down and have a look for myself.


Private jet?

[mouse]

The stockpile could still be at the mine or Ikamatua
You could save the petrol of the private jet, or helicopter, and phone Lyttelton Port, Marketing, 03-328-81-98, and ask them about ships booked in for Pike River Coal. I have been able today to find out that there is a ship booked for next month for Pike. However the chap would not give me more information. I think we can be reasonably sure that 20,000 tonnes is to be exported next month.
Note I phoned a few minuted ago but could not talk to Marketing. They are at the pub. Maybe. Monday is the earliest for news.
Next, a coal mine is pretty simple for investors. It is either producing coal or not. The quantity of coal can quickly be used by investors to determine if we are into profit or loss.
Next, and this is a bit of a worry, the target is one million tonnes per year. With 200,000 tonnes of that from roadway mining and 800,000 tonnes from hydraulic mining. If things are going to plan we should be getting 20,000 tonnes per month out from Roadway Mining now. But we are a bit short of that at present. HOWEVER, we are a long way from being in the poo. I am very happy with my 10,000 shares in Pike. They are about the only ones that have not collapsed. And they do not depend upon SCF, or Marac.

[Casa del Energia]

Private jet?



Unlikely - You've only got a choice of hokitika or Westport - either aerodrome is only big enough for a paper dart with drag shute.

(Mrs Casa thought I was kidding when I said the Westport terminal building is a little wooden shed - - she knew it was the back of beyond when the plane drew up to a… little wooden shed. They've since upgraded to a …. Bigger tin shed)

[neopoleII]

the only jetplanes i have or enjoy are the yummy lolly ones...... purple is my favourite.

""The stockpile could still be at the mine or Ikamatua ""
well they better start moving it fast if they want to fill a ship.

there must be someone out there that can see the black mountain of coal.
might try the phone book and offer a resident a petrol vouchure to go and take a photo and email to me.
i cant see why prc management cant keep a weekly tally of transported coal on their website.
ie......... 2000 tons shipped last week.
would take 2 minutes to do it.
then all shareholders have the same knowledge....... unlike some who might go and have a looksy.

oh well.

[the machine]

You could save the petrol of the private jet, or helicopter, and phone Lyttelton Port, Marketing, 03-328-81-98, and ask them about ships booked in for Pike River Coal. I have been able today to find out that there is a ship booked for next month for Pike. However the chap would not give me more information. I think we can be reasonably sure that 20,000 tonnes is to be exported next month.
Note I phoned a few minuted ago but could not talk to Marketing. They are at the pub. Maybe. Monday is the earliest for news.
Next, a coal mine is pretty simple for investors. It is either producing coal or not. The quantity of coal can quickly be used by investors to determine if we are into profit or loss.
Next, and this is a bit of a worry, the target is one million tonnes per year. With 200,000 tonnes of that from roadway mining and 800,000 tonnes from hydraulic mining. If things are going to plan we should be getting 20,000 tonnes per month out from Roadway Mining now. But we are a bit short of that at present. HOWEVER, we are a long way from being in the poo. I am very happy with my 10,000 shares in Pike. They are about the only ones that have not collapsed. And they do not depend upon SCF, or Marac.

I have found LPA very helpful - sent them an email asking about pikes first shipment and they told me - this before pike said anything specific.
they also send me a very nice xmas card, in regards to my work, not that they know me of course

M

[Kees]

told you a couple of weeks ago their pile was the same as what was left after the last shipment no increase in size although coaltrain movement seems to have picked up
but that could be contacts?

[Baddarcy]

told you a couple of weeks ago their pile was the same as what was left after the last shipment no increase in size although coaltrain movement seems to have picked up
but that could be contacts?

I think you getting a bit mixed up, by "Contacts" i suspect you actually mean Solid Energy. Contact is a power company, Pikes coal is used to make steel not run power stations :-)

In regards to the "piles of coal" we are talking about, Pike actually has 3 of these, one at the port, one at the rail yard and one at the processing plan onsite at the mine. The one we are interested in is the one at the mine, which is hidden from view and this is where is coal is at the moment.

Pike won't start moving the coal until they are ready to ship it. Then they will get the contractor who i believe is "TNL Group Limited" to start trucking it from the mine to the rail yard which will then rail it to LPA at which stage you will see it on the web cam.

If anyone want to confirm that what LPA is saying about Pike having a ship booked (odd as i thought that was up to the buyer of the coal to book the ship, not Pike?) could give them a call as moving the coal will need a fair few of TNL's trucks.......

[mouse]

If anyone want to confirm that what LPA is saying about Pike having a ship booked (odd as i thought that was up to the buyer of the coal to book the ship, not Pike?) could give them a call as moving the coal will need a fair few of TNL's trucks.......[/QUOTE]
I did ask if it was a ship for Pike River Coal. So who has booked it does not matter too much, Lyttelton refer to it as Pike Coal. The terms are I think, FOB, that is Free on Board. Pike pays to load the coal. Plus it is their care, I think, until it is loaded. Payment after that I think.

[mouse]

Coal Berth Camera at Lyttelton. Note you have to know what ship is loading and for whom.
http://www.lpc.co.nz/RP.jasc?session=BD2B8EEB71D4D76952996CEE548AC5&Page=N225P2

[JoeBlogs]

Private jet?

Unlikely - You've only got a choice of hokitika or Westport - either aerodrome is only big enough for a paper dart with drag shute.


Ooh, not quite, most of the NZ based private jets could operate quite easily out of both - in fact you'd even get the Air National BAe146 in and out of both under the right conditions.

(TODA/LDA Westport 1280 m, Hoki 1314 m)

[Hoop]

OK... PRC has been around for 3 years..Its a major topic on ST. We have mentioned all sorts of scenarios ,worried about buying in and worried about selling out... some have made money some have lost money

Most have said that we all should not have touched this stock with a bargepole until they're were proven coal producers ..Were these people right?

NO!! they were wrong.

Lets see what a TA simpleton (lets name this investor Trendy) could have done using basic common sense disciplined investing.


Scenario: Trendy enters PRC in September 2007 with $8400 and has exited PRC on 31 May 2010 with $34,524.

How is it possible that Trendy a simplistic TA moron could make that much money when the share price has gone from IPO $1.00 to $0.91 now ...
(OPTIONS and RIGHTS issues not included in this Scenario).

With reference to the chart below Trendy just bought and sold on the trend line breaks and reinvested the cumulative total...Trendy ignored everything else and kept to that discipline. Trendy after 3 years was confronted with only one trend line dilemma when a trap occurred after buying in @ 84 cents in March 2009. Trendy had to ask the question..was this a Bull or was it a Bear trap:confused:.....Trendy had to learn another simple TA method to prevent making the wrong decision.

(** see below the chart what Trendy did)

Trendy's Timetable

BUY...Sept 2007...........10000 shares at 0.84 = $ 8400
Sold..Jan 2008.............10000 shares at 1.09 = $10900
BUY...End Feb 2008......10582 shares at 1.03 = $10900
Sold..July 2008............10582 shares at 2.15 = $22751
BUY...March 2009.........27084 shares at 0.84 = $22751
Sold.. Oct/Nov 2009......27084 shares at 1.16 = $31417
BUY...March 2010.........34524 shares at 0.97 = $31417
Sold..31st May.............34524 shares at 1.00 = $34524

Trendy's Watchlist has alerted Trendy that PRC is closing in onto a possible trend line break so Trendy has a finger on the buy button but hasn't pressed it yet.


http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/PRC25062010.png

** Trendy confronted a dilemma in March 2009 and had to make a more complex decision. The longer term trend line broke back quickly after trendy bought in...what to do??? Trendy applied a stop/loss at just below the red line B and was willing to exit with a loss... however Trendy relaxed when the blue A short term trend line evolved confirming a bear trap... Trendy's basic TA skills worked and that bear trap was avoided by waiting for confirmation and not selling out.

[JoeBlogs]

Recent local info release in "Grey Star" was that they have finished the rock work and are into a thick seam of really good easily mined coal. The downside, & there usually is one, is that they are behind schedule with getting the hydro mining underway.

I take it you mean the Grey Star has outlined the information already released to market regarding hydro mining schedule? I get the feeling that continuous disclosure is much like a continuous miner to PRC - only works some of the time.

[elZorro]

Hoop: are you suggesting that there is someone on this planet that would have selected those buy/sell points by fitting those exact lines to those little blips in the end-of-day trading figures? And who, convinced that they had a perfect system, would then reinvest the entire amount in the same share each time, regardless of how good any other shares looked?

I could draw a few lines on those graphs that would have had Trendy losing some money quite frequently during that time. Lines that are just as valid as yours. In short, my Trendy would have behaved more like my own hit/miss system.

My advice to Trendy, if he/she wants to buy mining shares, is to look at open pit mining companies. They should be easier to trade with.

Disc: not holding PRC at the moment.

[Casa del Energia]

Ooh, not quite, most of the NZ based private jets could operate quite easily out of both - in fact you'd even get the Air National BAe146 in and out of both under the right conditions.

(TODA/LDA Westport 1280 m, Hoki 1314 m)

I stand corrected.

(Athough the re-assurance on the length still will not prevent me getting the creeps coming into Westport on link flights - it's a postage stamp from 3000 metres… and if it was really that long, how come they have to peel my face off the seat in front of me due to the pilot having to slam on the anchors so hard?).

[JoeBlogs]

Don't get me wrong, they're pretty short, but for example those link aircraft (Beech 1900) can handle quite a bit shorter (Whangarei is around 200 m shorter) - the deceleration rate depends on a number of things including pilot technique (you're doing about 200 km/h on landing so there's not a lot of room to stuff around).

Anyway, enough of the thread drift sorry, happy to have picked up a few more PRCOA this morning (I'm hoping happiness doesn't turn to horror in the next week or two!)

[winner69]

Hokitika is quite an exciting place to take off from .... never landed there ..... bit a fright when the taxidriver said it was only a ledge on the side of Mt Cook and the pilot goes as fast as he can to the end and hopes that he has enough elevation to get out over the sea

[Casa del Energia]

Don't get me wrong, they're pretty short, but for example those link aircraft (Beech 1900) can handle quite a bit shorter (Whangarei is around 200 m shorter) - the deceleration rate depends on a number of things including pilot technique (you're doing about 200 km/h on landing so there's not a lot of room to stuff around).

Anyway, enough of the thread drift sorry, happy to have picked up a few more PRCOA this morning (I'm hoping happiness doesn't turn to horror in the next week or two!)

Off thread's ok - it's a bit like a cricket match commentary at the moment, you know - the bit where the commentators start talking about the sea gulls on the pitch because there is not much else happening.

Probably a good call on the PRCOA - - I see a lot of posts dissing the management but all I see is good mine management. So what if the Greeks have freaked the markets and all shares have done a controlled flight into the ground - it's actually where real gains are made, when everyone gets scared and dumps.

More shareholders should try flying into Hokitika and Westport - - good practice at keeping nerve.

[Baddarcy]

Off thread's ok - it's a bit like a cricket match commentary at the moment, you know - the bit where the commentators start talking about the sea gulls on the pitch because there is not much else happening.

Probably a good call on the PRCOA - - I see a lot of posts dissing the management but all I see is good mine management. So what if the Greeks have freaked the markets and all shares have done a controlled flight into the ground - it's actually where real gains are made, when everyone gets scared and dumps.

More shareholders should try flying into Hokitika and Westport - - good practice at keeping nerve.

Why not catch the Tranz Alpine train instead, that way you can count all the full coal trains going the other way :-)

[Hoop]

Hoop: are you suggesting that there is someone on this planet that would have selected those buy/sell points by fitting those exact lines to those little blips in the end-of-day trading figures? And who, convinced that they had a perfect system, would then reinvest the entire amount in the same share each time, regardless of how good any other shares looked?

I could draw a few lines on those graphs that would have had Trendy losing some money quite frequently during that time. Lines that are just as valid as yours. In short, my Trendy would have behaved more like my own hit/miss system.

My advice to Trendy, if he/she wants to buy mining shares, is to look at open pit mining companies. They should be easier to trade with.

Disc: not holding PRC at the moment.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Will I respond to this nitpicker?.....oh hell why not....it was an insulting post ( ...And who, convinced that they had a perfect system...) Hoop convinced he has found the one common indicator trend line system as the perfect system...yeah right...

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
I admit (and have to put up with) that often TA posters get criticised by other investors when we draw charts using one or more altered indicators to make it fit and look (and is) very simple ... In reality that TA poster has found a stock that "behaves" to that certain manipulated indicator(s) so why not take an investment advantage of it?

I have used and presented the ST members two very simple unaltered indicators which I have made money from ...if I get criticised for sharing my successful strategy then I don't really care a sh1t.

I often use this type of Investment Strategy.... My last example I made public to ST was for MFT from 2007 to late 2009 when I observed that the MA50 temporarily worked well for that then down trending stock. (see MFT post#285 (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?760-MFT/page19&highlight=mft))I made about +50% on my initial investment as the stock fell from 800c to 370c during the 2008/2009 Bear market Crash when everyone was losing money...that shows how well this strategy can work when you can identify "behaving" stocks.

MA50 with backtesting is a mediorce indicator on its own as with many other TA indicators but... sometimes... there are times when a certain share "behaves" to a certain indicator or a small group of indicators for a period of time. MFT and MA50 was good for 3 years but has been lousy this last 18 months with the recent uptrend so I have obviously postponed this strategy with MFT and moved on to another "behaving" share (which I wont mention).


PRC is still "behaving" with it's own trendlines.


In my post Trendy is "sort of" Hoop but theoretical Trendy is more disciplined than practical Hoop....because I do break my own rules (often costs me too).... this time I did not wait for the downtrend break, I'm in..accumulating (as have others) as well as compounded so very overweight in PRC... I've got a stop/loss just in case I get "shaken out"..Even if I get caught in a shake out I will still have doubled my money in PRC...so I'm relaxed about putting a lot of eggs in one basket ahead of TA buy signals.

[Dr_Who]

PRC is not very liquid and the sp can be moved easily up or down with a size order. Doesnt take much to move this stock.

[elZorro]

Hi Hoop, at least your posts livened up an otherwise dull couple of days on ST..I hope I'm more like a junior "seeker of truth", than a nitpicker :)

So it looks like Trendy could have achieved 300% return, but a human being would achieve about 100% return. That sounds about right.

I'm still intrigued why there appears to be a whole lot more interest in PRC, where you have to be good at TA to make a dollar, yet there are NZ shares like OGC which have a solid dependable trend upwards. TA then says (according to Phaedrus), this is NOT a buy, but you can hold if you want to (and by the way, no TA pattern improves your results with this share). Isn't that just making hard work of sharetrading?

Sorry you took offence, I realise that it takes a lot of work to put together a post like that. It was informative.

[Casa del Energia]

Why not catch the Tranz Alpine train instead, that way you can count all the full coal trains going the other way :-)

But it's a single track! (Sorry, couldn't resist that quip).

Actually, it would be embarrassing to announce to the world that 50 50 tonne wagons just passed through springs junction while the tranz-alpine was waiting in a siding (I assume there are passing loops over the alps) - only to later realise that they actually came from Stockton. I think I'll stick to the blind terror of the local aerodromes.

[mouse]

:mellow:I phoned up Lyttelton Port Marketing. They could not help as they want to know the name of the ship!:( But there is a hole in my bucket, of coal, so I dont know. Impasse. Sorry, cannot be more helpful. Fly down on the Candy Jet Plane and take a looksee.:cool:

[Logen Ninefingers]

Ok you amateur sleuth, here are the only 2 coal vessels booked for the Port of Lyttelton for the month of July.

Vessel: BRAVE WIND Docking: Cashin Quay 1 ETA: 06/07/10 ETD: 08/07/10 - RUSS & SOMERS - COAL
Vessel: OCEAN PARADISE Docking: Cashin Quay 1 ETA: 13/07/10 ETD: 16/07/10 WILHELMSEN SHIP SERVICES - COAL

....Now - if Pike are to ship in July - then one of these vessels is THE vessel.

[Phaedrus]

I could draw a few lines on those graphs that would have had Trendy losing some money quite frequently during that time. Lines that are just as valid as yours, Hoop.No you couldn't! You seem to be blissfully unaware that there are rules covering how and where valid trendlines can be drawn. Quite apart from that, Hoop would not have to look very far to find other indicators giving signals confirming the trendline break buy/sell signals he marked on his chart. The 14 day RSI as depicted on page 345 of this thread, is a good example.


....and by the way, no TA pattern improves your results with OGC.Absolute nonsense. You obviously haven't held OGC very long - or even looked at the chart! The use of basic TA would certainly have improved the results of these investors! (quotes in blue).

http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/tt102/PhaedrusPB/OGC628.gif

Simple trendlines would have kept these poor sods out of OGC for over a year while the shareprice plummeted, before giving an excellent entry signal into the ensuing uptrend. TA improves your results by keeping you in uptrends and out of downtrends. The sheer folly of ignoring prevailing market sentiment is painfully obvious here. TA provides us with the tools to monitor market sentiment.

[mouse]

Ok you amateur sleuth, here are the only 2 coal vessels booked for the Port of Lyttelton for the month of July.

Vessel: BRAVE WIND Docking: Cashin Quay 1 ETA: 06/07/10 ETD: 08/07/10 - RUSS & SOMERS - COAL
Vessel: OCEAN PARADISE Docking: Cashin Quay 1 ETA: 13/07/10 ETD: 16/07/10 WILHELMSEN SHIP SERVICES - COAL

....Now - if Pike are to ship in July - then one of these vessels is THE vessel.
Many thanks. We wait to see.

[elZorro]

No you couldn't! You seem to be blissfully unaware that there are rules covering how and where valid trendlines can be drawn. Quite apart from that, Hoop would not have to look very far to find other indicators giving signals confirming the trendline break buy/sell signals he marked on his chart. The 14 day RSI as depicted on page 345 of this thread, is a good example.

Absolute nonsense. You obviously haven't held OGC very long - or even looked at the chart! The use of basic TA would certainly have improved the results of these investors! (quotes in blue).

http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/tt102/PhaedrusPB/OGC628.gif

Simple trendlines would have kept these poor sods out of OGC for over a year while the shareprice plummeted, before giving an excellent entry signal into the ensuing uptrend. TA improves your results by keeping you in uptrends and out of downtrends. The sheer folly of ignoring prevailing market sentiment is painfully obvious here. TA provides us with the tools to monitor market sentiment.

Oh no, it's deja vu all over again. Flamed out by the guru..:confused:

My comments referred to the OGC chart since the low point in early 2009. Since then the chart has been defined by OGC geologists finding more gold, the market steadily realising this, the increasing PoG, and the move to being an unhedged producer. It didn't get there because of any trendlines. Over that period, my comments were taken from your previous analysis Phaedrus.

I agree that TA can be used to get started on a share, but the confidence to stay there (in the absence of a strong pattern recognition by TA, as sometimes occurs) can be given by FA.

I have not done any homework on TA yet, but I have looked hard at the business models of shares I'm interested in.

Just for the record, I think Trendy would have had great difficulty buying and selling at the stated points, as Dr. Who alluded to earlier.

[Logen Ninefingers]

Many thanks. We wait to see.

Yeah, I don't know....Russ & Somers and Wilhelmsen are the agents for these 2 vessels and I can see there were 2 vessels with these agents last month - regular Solid Energy shipments?

The Pike River vessel from Feb was the Tian Bai Feng, operated by the Parakou Shipping Group, based in Hong Kong - I believe this vessel would have been specifically chartered to carry Pike's coal in Feb - so where is a smiliar vessel for July?

[Logen Ninefingers]

Does anyone think there will actually be a shipment departing in July??????

Take a gander at this:

Pike River's first coal shipment looms
NZPA | Friday January 30, 2009 - 02:11pm

Pike River Coal's first export coal shipment will go to Japan in April this year at a healthy price but future shipments may not be so shiny.
Forty thousand tonnes of the first shipment will be sold at US$300 ($NZ593) per tonne, according to the company's December 2008 quarter report.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Pike River Coal Delays First Coal Shipment
22 July 2009
New Zealand miner Pike River Coal has delayed the first shipment from its hard coking coal mine on the South Island’s West Coast following a slowdown in production ramp-up due to teething problems, the company said.
The first 60,000t export coal shipment has been postponed by six weeks and is expected to leave for Japan in mid-November 2009, Pike River Coal said.
The company said production has been delayed due to minor, yet time consuming faults in the new heavy cutting equipment and the need for Pike River Coal mining crews to become familiar with the machines.

That's an article from July last year, saying first shipment is going to be delayed to Nov 09 and will be 60,000 tonnes to Japan.
...and it ended up being 20,000 tonnes in Feb 10 to India!!
Har har.

First shipment goes in Feb -19 Feb - and literally days later they announce the rights issue - 25 Feb - PLAYED!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Logen Ninefingers]

I was wrong..it was the next day 20 Feb that they announced the rights issue. So 60,000 tonnes was delayed 6 weeks and yet months later 20,000 tonnes were shipped.
What have they been doing with that other 40,000 tonnes? Does coal evaporate?

[Hoop]

......Just for the record, I think Trendy would have had great difficulty buying and selling at the stated points, as Dr. Who alluded to earlier.

Trendy is the theoritical version of the successful strategy..In practice it can be hard to buy/sell when you want to ...life's a bitch and you must think about that when you risk to invest in either very volatile stocks or illiquid ones.

Ok most stocks on the NZX are illiquid for the large players so they are absent. I deal in tens of thousands so not a big player and yes I do have problems sometimes.

However with PRC I have so far got in and out within a cent or two of theoretical price. .. El Zorro....Have a closer look at the PRC chart, zoom in to a lesser time period and see the daily movements. (I used incredible charts for this one)
Remember indicators on charts are a visual aid showing human group behaviour at work.. Trendlines are an indicator and show this behaviour. Often after the initial trend break and reaction the price will briefly gravitate back to that broken trend line (pull back to test or retest the trend line for confirmation)...this often gives you a second chance to act if you missed the first time.

Phaedrus OGC chart shows you an excellent pull back example.
Note:..The long term suffering downtrend line breaks at the end of 2008 .. the price suddenly goes crazy and lets say you miss out buying at 27c as would most investors...are you the person that jumps in at 35c on the same day or do you wait for the "dust to clear"?.....using that theoretically possible pull back as the market reflects and reevaluates.
....yep... predictable group behaviour gave you another chance to jump into OGC at 27 / 28 cents a couple of days later after the trend break frenzy.

If you still have doubts google and read up on it.




Hi Hoop, at least your posts livened up an otherwise dull couple of days on ST

As did your posts:) yes ST has got a little boring lately, a few of our more colourful characters have gone quiet.

[elZorro]

Thanks Hoop, no hard feelings on either side I trust.

Who knows? another couple of years of hard lessons with shares and a bit more indoctrination, I might be able to use the best parts of both TA and FA in my decisions :).

Thanks for the insight on buying opportunities. I am the guy who would jump in at 35c rather than wait (still wish I'd even been looking at the opportunity then). Still a slow learner - I have the L plates to prove it.

[Phaedrus]

Another couple of years of hard lessons with shares and a bit more indoctrination and I might be able to use the best parts of both TA and FA in my decisions.YES! That's the way to go! It really doesn't matter whether you use TA to confirm your FA, or FA to confirm your TA, so long as both are good. That's why it is a real worry when you say things like "TA can be used to get started on a share, but the confidence to stay there can be given by FA."[/I] It sure can - but such confidence can be quite misplaced and as such, cost you very dearly.


I have looked hard at the business models of shares I'm interested in.Good - but keep in mind that's what Merrill Lynch had been doing when they put a "Buy" recommendation on OGC, considering that it offered "compelling value to investors". It was FA that got those people into OGC when it was in an on-going downtrend - and it was FA that kept them there, giving them the "confidence" to stay in - while the shareprice continued its inexorable downtrend. You fight the market - you lose.

No matter how good your fundamental assessment of a share, you are not going to make any money out of it until/unless the market agrees with you.

[patrick]

JULY SHIPMENT?



Continuous Disclosure!!

[JoeBlogs]

Brian Roulston <brian@diversified.co.nz>

[Logen Ninefingers]

JULY SHIPMENT?


Which year?

[JoeBlogs]

Rough night! We'll probibly see a break-down below this 90 level unless we get some news soon.

[Baddarcy]

Rough night! We'll probibly see a break-down below this 90 level unless we get some news soon.

It's also the last day of the quarter today and last day of Pikes financial year, so might get a bit of rebalancing from the big guys today. But that could go either way.

Has anyone been able to confirm an earlier post about Gordon doing a presentation to ForBar tomorrow?

[JoeBlogs]

Has anyone been able to confirm an earlier post about Gordon doing a presentation to ForBar tomorrow?

I'm sure that info will be available on the PRC website, they're pretty good at keeping us.......... oh........ right.

[blockhead]

Presentation was advertised by Forbar in Saturdays Timaru Herald, need to contact Forbar if you want to be there, its in Ashburton,

[swissboy]

Within 36 hours we will know where we stand. They can not have a meeting without saying anything.
Any member of Sharetraders going to Ashburton ???

[Logen Ninefingers]

Within 36 hours we will know where we stand. They can not have a meeting without saying anything.
Any member of Sharetraders going to Ashburton ???

Anyone else find this maddening to say the least.....the only straw being clung to is a speech to 'Fubar' in some hall somewhere - this is quite pitiful. If this is the way news is going to be conveyed then I see big ructions ahead between Pike management and their shareholders. Like I've said previously, I've checked the LPC website for coal vessels in the month of July and what I see is 2 vessels which appear to be for Solid Energy coal. Now at some stage Pike need to be held to account for the things they say - they can't keep stating that this is going to happen at such and such a date and then not deliver. It is getting beyond a joke.

[blockhead]

I hope you are sending your enquiries to NZO and PRC, you can't expect to get info (excluding rumours) via this forum, I guess you don't expect it from anywhere else either.

[Logen Ninefingers]

I posted questions for Chris Roberts in the NZO thread. That's the appropriate place to do it...an open letter that everyone can view. He usually responds to things in that thread so he can either answer or go MIA.

[blockhead]

MIA...Mining In Australia, Making It Akward, Missing In Action,

[JoeBlogs]

When I emailed Brian Roulston a couple of weeks ago he assured me PRC continued to comply with continuous disclosure requirements - I suggest others put the pressure on, I've done about all I can do. My next communication will be with NZX - this lack of information is unacceptable, and if there is no shipment in July, they have already broken the rules!

Again: Brian Roulston <brian@diversified.co.nz>

[Logen Ninefingers]

I just went to the Pike River Coal website. I've been advised that that is the place to go for all the latest news, in the spirit of continuous disclosure and all.
And what did I find there?
Latest news: 21 May 2010:
$90 Million Capital Raising Completed
Pike River Coal Limited advises that its $90 million capital raising has been successfully completed today

There it is folks, the latest news hot off the press. Hot off the press 40 days ago!! 40...days...ago.

Stand by for further updates!!

[percy]

I went looking for the mine late yesterday afternoon.Drove to Blackball and asked a couple on the street where PRC mine was.Told me where but would be locked up by now and I would not see anything.However word on the street of Blackball is they are producing somecoal now.Sorry I did not do a better job.

[Logen Ninefingers]

I went looking for the mine late yesterday afternoon.Drove to Blackball and asked a couple on the street where PRC mine was.Told me where but would be locked up by now and I would not see anything.However word on the street of Blackball is they are producing somecoal now.Sorry I did not do a better job.

That's alright Percy, you did your best. That's brilliant, absolutely brilliant. "They are producing some coal now". Continuous disclosure, at it's very best!!!!

[Hoop]

I went looking for the mine late yesterday afternoon.Drove to Blackball and asked a couple on the street where PRC mine was.Told me where but would be locked up by now and I would not see anything.However word on the street of Blackball is they are producing somecoal now.Sorry I did not do a better job.

Thanks Percy... your info much appreciated ...Logen Ninefingers said it all

[friedegg]

does f@p announce every shipment of washing machines?and its not july yet

[Hoop]

does f@p announce every shipment of washing machines?and its not july yet
We know F&P make washing machines we have seen lots of them.. We've seen bugger all coal and Pike won't tell it shareholders if its mining any coal (or how much) at the moment....big difference.

[upside_umop]

All due respect Hoop, Pike have stated in their quarterly what they're upto. As I understand it, they are mining coal (with the road headers), paving out the mine map to give the most efficient structure for hydro mining (they leave pillars for support in the mine...so the less pillars, the more coal they get out). The delay from June to July was because they redesigned the map a little bit?

Plus, its not July yet. It could be 31 July before they announce anything!

[JoeBlogs]

It is standard practice for companies IN THEIR STARTUP PHASE to make regular and informative reports to shareholders, this would be warranted even moreso in the case of a company like PRC whos shareholders have such good reason to be jumpy. It would not be difficult to provide regular weekly updates on the website, and I would consider this reasonable - I assume they know how much coal is extracted each week - why not let us know so we can evaluate their progress for ourselves rather than just accepting their very low resolution forecasts which as yet have proved anything but accurate, or relying on Chinese whispers from the local watering hole. I've been an advocate of PRC as a complete proposition for a long time now, but I'm continually dissapointed by the cavalier attitude with which they regard the people who OWN them.

[Logen Ninefingers]

Plus, its not July yet. It could be 31 July before they announce anything!

They could announce on 31 July that they'll be sending a coal shipment out later that day, thus making good on the statement that there would be a July shipment????
Seems unlikely.

[JoeBlogs]

Exactly, there is almost no situation where it could be 31 July before they announce anything.

[upside_umop]

They said July didnt they? Is 31st of July not part of July?

What would you like PRC coal to do? Say that they have looked in a crystal ball and say that they have foreseen the shipment?

To be honest, I dont think GW wants to hype things up. He knows they have buggered up in the past and no point coming across with weekly updates that mining is going gangbusters with the ultra slow (in comparison to hydro mining) road headers.

I would expect him to provide more regular updates to the market once the hydro miners in place and the progress expected with them...as this is what makes the mine viable. If the hydro miners weren't to work, then it would be considered material. At this stage, I just dont see an announcement necessary. Neither does PRC in this case!

To put it simply, the road headers are not viable long term (in terms of sustaining positive cashflow operations on their own) and therefore immaterial long term for the mine.

[Logen Ninefingers]

They said July didnt they? Is 31st of July not part of July?

What would you like PRC coal to do? Say that they have looked in a crystal ball and say that they have foreseen the shipment?

To be honest, I dont think GW wants to hype things up. He knows they have buggered up in the past and no point coming across with weekly updates that mining is going gangbusters with the ultra slow (in comparison to hydro mining) road headers.

I would expect him to provide more regular updates to the market once the hydro miners in place and the progress expected with them...as this is what makes the mine viable. If the hydro miners weren't to work, then it would be considered material. At this stage, I just dont see an announcement necessary. Neither does PRC in this case!

To put it simply, the road headers are not viable long term (in terms of sustaining positive cashflow operations on their own) and therefore immaterial long term for the mine.

Yup, hydro mining = good. There wouldn't be a person here that wouldn't agree with that. Everyone loves hydro-mining!!

What is occupying people right now is the July shipment, which is a something quite seperate from the start of hydro-mining. The hope and expectation is that a July shipment will be delivered, and everyone will know: PRC are now meeting the targets that they have announced, a given date announced by PRC is not just something flippant, it has some meaning attached.

[the machine]

it is very fortunate the pending presentation by Forbar is coming up, no doubt it will detail latest roadways - remember roadways have to be cut either side of the hydro area before hydro mining can start.

IMO the 20,000t july shipment will not have any hydro coal in it, instead be produced from roadways

M

[Monkey Poms]

It's a frustrating time to be a shareholder in PRC. We are all waiting for news on the successful progress of hydro - mining.

I agree with 'Upside Umop" - the road headers are a side show in terms of productivity compared with hydro mining.

I can bear the silence from Pike, compared with the over - optimistic time scales given in past statements, my gut feeling that August will be ramp - up time still stands.

Now a digression. Take a look at the two photographs of the Island Block open - cast operation near Greymouth, which I took about 15 years ago. The mine operator literally took the top off a mountain ridge to expose 6 meters of coal. Do any members of this forum have any information on how the landscape has recovered over time?

In my view, the government allowed the Island Block site to be butchered. Pike should be allowed to take as much coal out as can be safely mined. Over time there will be some land subsidence within the Pike operation. I don't think this will be enough to topple all the trees! (a man on a galloping horse, with the eyesight of an eagle, wouldn't notice anyway).

During our annual holiday to New Zealand, next year I will try to persuade my wife and some friends to pay a visit to the Island Block site for old times sake, to see how much nature has helped the land recover. (i think i might be voted out on this one, though).

Monkey Poms.

[iceman]

They said July didnt they? Is 31st of July not part of July?

What would you like PRC coal to do? Say that they have looked in a crystal ball and say that they have foreseen the shipment?

To be honest, I dont think GW wants to hype things up. He knows they have buggered up in the past and no point coming across with weekly updates that mining is going gangbusters with the ultra slow (in comparison to hydro mining) road headers.

I would expect him to provide more regular updates to the market once the hydro miners in place and the progress expected with them...as this is what makes the mine viable. If the hydro miners weren't to work, then it would be considered material. At this stage, I just dont see an announcement necessary. Neither does PRC in this case!

To put it simply, the road headers are not viable long term (in terms of sustaining positive cashflow operations on their own) and therefore immaterial long term for the mine.

The recent exchange here shows how jumpy shareholders are becoming and understandably so. I think "Hoop" and "JoeBlogs" have a very valid point and PRC should give regular and informative PROGRESS updates to the market. Noone is asking them or wanting them to "hype things up", just fair reports on progress. That may ease some of the obvious unease amongst the shareholders.

[JoeBlogs]

They said July didnt they? Is 31st of July not part of July?

I think you're missunderstanding the requirement here - or underestimating the materiality of this shipment - yes, it's small, but it's the wider conotations that are material (ability to stick to schedule, roading progress towards hydro-mining, cashflow at critical time). You can't tell me that if PRC delay their shipment they will have no idea until July 31? I'm not saying there will be a delay, but we should have received an update by now regarding the timing.

Hopefully this will all be sorted in the presentation today (that we have been informed of in a round-about way).

iceman, exactly!

[Baddarcy]

The recent exchange here shows how jumpy shareholders are becoming and understandably so. I think "Hoop" and "JoeBlogs" have a very valid point and PRC should give regular and informative PROGRESS updates to the market. Noone is asking them or wanting them to "hype things up", just fair reports on progress. That may ease some of the obvious unease amongst the shareholders.

Well said Iceman. I think we are all experienced enough now to ignore the forcasts. What we want are the facts so we can draw our own conclusions from.

Simply how much coal is in the yard and an updated mine map every now and then so we can see how far away from the start of hydro we are is all we really want.

Anyway today is the start of the new financial year for pike, all indications are that it will be a good one !!!

[Baddarcy]

Forgot to add also, i think the fact that the share price has been dribbling away since the capital raising has not really helped the situations either.

I think if the price had been slowly appreciating instead of going down our demeaner would be different :-)

On the positive site, the fact the staff have been buying shares though the employee share ownership scheme has to be seen as a positive. They are the only ones that really know what is going on and if they are buying.....

[winner69]

Enron staff did well out there shares as well

[dsurf]

Anyway today is the start of the new financial year for pike, all indications are that it will be a good one !!!

I will be very surprised if it is not. The wireline logging has identified enough coal to make next year a profitable one regardless of grabens. The roof has been strengthened with pillars. Ventilation fixed. Workers hired (hopefully trained by now)The equipment failures rectified. Extra roads dug. The transport network changed advantageously and tested.

IMO this means the project is substantially de-risked. The last big ? remains whether the hydro mining machinery will work as planned. Unfortunately we will not know til they start using it. I think PRC are in a situation of "the boy who cried wolf" and have realised that they really need to meet their targets to have any market credibility. I have no doubt that 20K will be delivered in July. It is not a large amount of coal in the context of the mine and it will allow GW to put something positive in the AGM speech.

I am happy not to get updates on the amount of coal as I hope that all efforts are concentrated on the achievement of Hydro mining asap. The coal is incidental from roadway building etc and does not reflect a "production state". I would like weeky updates on the ramp up towards hydro mining milestones and what they are, eg, machiniery commisioning, training, road progress & whatever others

[Logen Ninefingers]

I am happy not to get updates on the amount of coal as I hope that all efforts are concentrated on the achievement of Hydro mining asap. The coal is incidental from roadway building etc and does not reflect a "production state". I would like weeky updates on the ramp up towards hydro mining milestones and what they are, eg, machiniery commisioning, training, road progress & whatever others

For the website to effectively not be updated for 40 days.......is the guy that does the updating and takes the photo's that get put up and everything else.....has he been busy 24/7 up at the mine helping get hydro-mining up and running? The website is the way for the company to maintain contact with shareholders.

[swissboy]

It depends on how you look at it and over what period. It is not too encouraging to say since 30 June 2008 that is 2 years ago, the s/p dropped over 60% or during the last 12 month nearly 25%. or during the last month 18%.
The crunch is simply no updated information for 40 days.

[JoeBlogs]

And we're talking about information that will be already available internally, how hard is it to spare 5 mins a week to put it up online?

[swissboy]

40 days after the succeessful $90 mil Capital raising and the s/p manages to slip below the offer price of 88 cents.

[JoeBlogs]

What time was this presentation???

[upside_umop]

Last presentation was about 4 week ago. It reiterated what the plan with the mine is.

[JoeBlogs]

And today's presentation? I assume the info will be released

[Logen Ninefingers]

And today's presentation? I assume the info will be released

You know the drill - head straight to the informative website.
I'm just back from there, and this is what I found:

Latest news: 21 May 2010:
$90 Million Capital Raising Completed
Pike River Coal Limited advises that its $90 million capital raising has been successfully completed today

That's all the news that matters.......to PRC!! They got their 90 million!! Happy days are here!!

[Baddarcy]

Just check LPC and now there are 4 coal ships due this month, 2 more have been added:

BRAVE WIND 07/07/10 RUSS & SOMERS COAL
OCEAN PARADISE 14/07/10 WILHELMSEN SHIP SERVICES COAL
MILLION TRADER 15/07/10 CMR SHIPPING LTD COAL
RISHIKESH 17/07/10 ISS-MCKAY LTD COAL

[JoeBlogs]

Logen, you're right, I have checked the website and am now up to date ;)

[mouse]

My computer has broken down. Is now repaired, but crashed a few minutes ago. The problems with complex machinery. And my computer is not even down a coal mine.
Which brings me to production. You must not be distressed, listen to Mouse. A start-up mine is a start-up. We will not get steady state production until December this year. Since if my computer is trouble, think of the problems getting 50 computers to all work at the same time. Coal Production is slow due to only using the headers. They should be getting a bit under 20,000 tons per month. So we wait to see if they can do it. The question is, will this months shipment be 20,000 tons or 40,000 tons?
The SP collapse is not serious, it is just acting in line with all the other shares. If you have cash,there are bargains to be had. In any company.
Pike is no different to other companies. The market in Bulgaria is in a bit of a spin and is affecting us. Cheer Up! Take Courage! as they advertise in London. I have lost more with other companies than Pike. Holding shares is not like putting your cash into a Bank Deposit Account. It is a bit more of a gamble. At least with coal we can leave it in the ground if we cannot mine at a profit.

[mouse]

From memory, and I may be wrong, Pike, us, need to get around 200,000 tonnes of coal from the headers. That is the machines that cut the roadways. The other 800,000 tonnes comes from water blasting. Both are annual production targets. We are now into the nail-biting stage of, 'will it work?'
Which brings me to the next problem which is, if we do not reach the header target of 200,000 tonnes per annum, does that mean that the hydro mining target must fall in proportion to the lost production of the headers?
So what amount we can export this month, or next, must give us some measure of how our years production will turn out.
Next problem is, 'what is the break-even figure for Pike mining?'

[Logen Ninefingers]

I don't get the part about "will it work" in respiect to hydro-mining. Is this proven technology used around the world? If yes, whats the potential problem?

[blockhead]

I have a feeling a group of large trucks full of coal may have been sighted at the rail head, there is good strength on the buy side this morning