PRC Pike River Coal

[JoeBlogs]

Very happy to have picked up another 30K PRCOA at 13.5 - what a steal!!!

[blockhead]

Another 10k for Blocky @ 14c just in case there is a positive ann coming

[JoeBlogs]

If only I had a spare $30K lying around....... I have a feeling the person/entity selling 200K+ PRCOA will live to regret it in the near future! Of course I could be wrong, and it may be me with the regrets? We'll see.

[Billy Boy]

Morning Blocky
Get Ann Coming to shoe that hay burner for you. It's got a limp. ;)
As for PRC.... Show positive signs just before the Annual General Metting.
Maybe sell a ship load of coal. Announce the initial installation of the
hydro equipment. away we go......
cheers BB :)

[Dr_Who]

Looks like the short sellers are scrambling to cover their position. Lol

[777]

With only 9.5 months to go to be in the money, the share has to be 1.39 or better. Flicked all mine of at 18.5 in February. I can see with confirmation that all is well at the mine the share rising but not to that level by April. Would pay for the head share at this level however.

[JoeBlogs]

I disagree, if all goes to plan the heads should be around the $2 mark by early next year barring any major meltdowns in the financial system (a real possibility). Looks like easy going up to $1.20, and the rest should follow with confirmation of the effectiveness of hydro mining.

[777]

Time will tell then. I hope you are right. Just hope this bear market has turned by then.

[JoeBlogs]

Yip, there's certainly a lot of downside risk to my thinking, hence the OAs at 13.5 cents this morning! Even in a bear market these shares are valued based on the expectation that PRC will substantially miss forecasts, and that's where I see the value - It would take a rather large fall in HCC prices for these things to be worth under $1.50 in the event that PRC do achieve production forecasts. Hopefully we'll get some more clarity in the coming weeks.

[Billy Boy]

Time will tell then. I hope you are right. Just hope this bear market has turned by then.

I dont think the Bear Market will have a lot of infulence on this stock when it goes, there is a lot of money just waiting !!!!
The three golden rules !!!!
Preception... Perception and .... Perception !!!
BB

[Lion]

The three golden rules !!!!
Preception... Perception and .... Perception !!!
BB

Hey, that's only two!

Yes I'm waiting for some good news here too. I have only options - got some at A10c last week but others at NZ16c

[COLIN]

Banpu T/O offer for Centennial Coal at $6-20 (33% rise today) would seem to be an obvious reason for this morning's aroused interest in Pike.

[JoeBlogs]

Thanks COLIN, articles on google finance (http://www.google.com/finance?q=ASX%3ACEY)

[Hoop]

Time will tell then. I hope you are right. Just hope this bear market has turned by then.
Commodity stocks don't always follow equity bear market rules straight away... PRC is one of them as proved in the last bear market.

[Baddarcy]

Price has dropped back a bit now to 89c but volume is still good. Given past happenings with this stock i have to assume that there is an announcement in the wind as in the past a flurry of activity has always been closly followed by some news.

[Lion]

Price has dropped back a bit now to 89c but volume is still good. Given past happenings with this stock i have to assume that there is an announcement in the wind as in the past a flurry of activity has always been closly followed by some news.

Still up 6c or 9 % in Aus though

[mouse]

I don't get the part about "will it work" in respiect to hydro-mining. Is this proven technology used around the world? If yes, whats the potential problem?
Of course the system is proven around the world. The question is, 'will it work at the Pike River Mine, our mine.' Next problem is, if the header production totals are not up to forecast, will that automatically reduce what can be mined by hydro mining? I do not know, I havent a clue. I have no answers, but some people do not even know the questions.
We are a coal mine using fairly complex technology at a considerable distance from 'back-up services.' With my computer problem, I just unplugged it and took it to the agent who is about a ten minutes drive away. You cannot do that at Pike. The Technician comes from Australia or even Europe. At a cost of both time and money. Plus of course lost production. The only way out of the situation is to have a back-up system for everything. Use system A for one week, system B for the next week. But that is even more expensive.
We wait to see the coal exported this month, that should give us some indication of how things are going. Plus of course we have a Quarterly Report coming shortly. Hopefully it makes good reading.
I am very confident about Pike. It is just that it may take us some time to hit the targets.
Hold your shares, it should be a pretty good return.

[JoeBlogs]

mouse, I think you're right in assuming that a reduced advance rate from the road headers would reduce hydro output proportionally (not necessarily what can be mined, but how quickly each panel can be prepared for hydro). Of course, in that case the opposite would be true for a better than forecast advance rate. Remember the forecast rates were adjusted to be much more conservative a while ago, that could possibly give some potential upside?

I've compared the last 2 mine schematics (28 April/2 June) and using the inseam drill holes (400 m in coal) for rough scale, I've estimated roading advance rates over this period (30-35 day) to be 7 - 8.2 m per day - this compares favourably to the newest pre-hydro advance forecasts of 6 m per day. Also for some of this period one of the road drives was in stone so I can only assume the advance rate picked up some time in the middle. Even using 7 m per day, you get an advance since 28 April of around 470 m. My brain hurts now, so I'll leave it for someone else to estimate a tonnage based on this. Of course this is all very crude stuff, but could indicate some good news on the way?

[JoeBlogs]

Here's my working in case anyone is interested - this assumes the schematics are valid as at the respective presentation dates.

Advance since previous schematic shown in purple, scale taken from inseam drill hole as shown on 23 March pic, green lines are just for scaling.

[mouse]

Here's my working in case anyone is interested - this assumes the schematics are valid as at the respective presentation dates.

Advance since previous schematic shown in purple, scale taken from inseam drill hole as shown on 23 March pic, green lines are just for scaling.
Many thanks Joe. My background is in engineering however I have not a clue about mining. My questions are merely observations based on my experience of Murphys Law as applied to engineering. Of course, when I was involved things were done with slide rules. I am very cautious with computers. In fact, my computer now 'rattles' after being repaired by the agents. I may get a Chinese chap to look at it. The roadheader figures are I suspect vital. Maybe Monkey Poms could also comment.
I will be very happy if we get steady state mining by the end of this year. Again many thanks for your efforts.

[JoeBlogs]

This was basically slide rule stuff mouse, nothing fancy, just a ruler and my eye ;)

[Baddarcy]

From today's "Stocks to watch" on Stuff.co.nz. Personally i think he has it only half right, the fact Pike is due a 2nd shipment shortly can't be ignored.


"Pike River Coal (PRC): The coal miner climbed 3.5 percent to 89 cents yesterday after Banpu, Thailand's biggest coal producer, agreed to acquire the rest of Australia's Centennial Coal for A$2 billion.

Ad Feedback The deal put a 40 percent premium on Centennial, which was creating interest in Pike, said Grant Williamson, a director at Hamilton Hindin Greene. "

[winner69]

The OAs priced expecting miracles to happen methinks .... maybe that miracle is a takeover at at 40% premium

[JoeBlogs]

I think they're priced expecting a chance that forecasts will be met - if you think that constitutes a miricle, I guess you could be forgiven. I'm interested in why you see sp of $1.50-$2.00 as so unlikely by next april? I see it as siginificatly more likely than sp < $1.25

[Logen Ninefingers]

I think regular shipments of coal & hydro-mining working will be enough to see the SP kick ahead. I don't think it's necessary for Pike to meet every forecast in the next 10 months - they just have to show that they have improved markedly from once been delivered so far.

[winner69]

Using current PRC heads volatility there's about a 15% chance of the OAs being in the money next April .... thats why I mentioned the market is expecting miracles to happen

In cases like this conventional pricing of options doesn't really work. A shortish time frame and big (abnormal) events needed to boost the shareprice means one needs to look at the probabilities of such events happening and look at the rewards under different scenarios and then takes your chance .... its a punt now guys

[winner69]

One factor to bear in mind is that a lot of the options were free in the first place so it doesn't really matter for some punters .... just a lost opportunity

I have never regretted quitting my free OAs (actually the market paid me to take them) in the mid 20's

[Logen Ninefingers]

I have never regretted quitting my free OAs (actually the market paid me to take them) in the mid 20's

.....Exactly how long has this mine been in it's pre-production phase for old timer??????

[friedegg]

3 years this month

[mouse]

Using current PRC heads volatility there's about a 15% chance of the OAs being in the money next April .... thats why I mentioned the market is expecting miracles to happen

In cases like this conventional pricing of options doesn't really work. its a punt now guys
A punt floating on hydro mining. Down the river on a Sunday afternoon. I have kept my 2,600 free options. They cost me nothing, so I do not lose much by holding. However they cover me should the sp go to extreme higher levels. My view is there is more chance of raising the dead than Pike going to $1.40 by next April. Miracles do happen, but as a medical consultant told me, 'I have never seen one.' My view now, is buy the real shares, not the options. And I am a Believer.

[mouse]

Where is Balance?

[777]

Gone from the members list so banned again I guess.

[shasta]

Gone from the members list so banned again I guess.

Still posting away on Sharescene, he'll be back i'm sure

[Logen Ninefingers]

PRC SP up to 0.93 at the close.

[Dr_Who]

It is positive sign to see a large crossing 750k shares at a premium of 93 cents.

[Baddarcy]

Where is Balance?

Last i saw he was winding up the ALF turkeys a week or so ago. Guess he found a better target for the moment :-)

[Baddarcy]

Yeah a nice little jump at the end of the day. Volume has been ok again today too. The buys seem to be coming back.

[Baddarcy]

A comment from an article i just found

"The benchmark NZX-50 ended up 5.057 points, or 0.2%, at 2952.40.

Coal miner Pike River Coal, the index's biggest winner, ended up 4.5% at NZ$0.93.

Williamson said there is a bit more interest in Pike River due to a very attractive takeover offer announced Monday for Centennial Coal and Macarthur Coal upgraded its earnings Tuesday.

Thailand's Banpu launched a friendly cash takeover bid for Centennial Coal, valuing the target at A$2.5 billion.

"There is a little bit happening in that coal sector in Australia and I think that's starting to rub of a bit on Pike River," he added. "

[JoeBlogs]

A punt floating on hydro mining. Down the river on a Sunday afternoon. I have kept my 2,600 free options. They cost me nothing, so I do not lose much by holding. However they cover me should the sp go to extreme higher levels. My view is there is more chance of raising the dead than Pike going to $1.40 by next April. Miracles do happen, but as a medical consultant told me, 'I have never seen one.' My view now, is buy the real shares, not the options. And I am a Believer.

You seem to be contradicting yourself mouse, if you are a believer there would surely be more chance of raising the dead than pike NOT going to $1.40+ by next April. The reason it may not is that they may not be able to produce anywhere near what they have forecast, and that's what is well and truly priced in as it seems the market believes this to be the case. Remember, $1.20ish is mearly a 3 or 4 days trading away once the market sees positive signs. Breaking above this will require some real positives, but it certainly won't be anything miraculous.

[Logen Ninefingers]

Yeah Mouse, more chance of raising the dead than it being at 1.40 next April????? Those are not the words of a true believer. We've only had 20,000 tonnes out of this mine and the SP is at 0.93 - hydro mining should have been going for 8 months by April...the share price could be anywhere.

[mouse]

You seem to be contradicting yourself mouse, if you are a believer there would surely be more chance of raising the dead than pike NOT going to $1.40+ by next April. The reason it may not is that they may not be able to produce anywhere near what they have forecast, and that's what is well and truly priced in as it seems the market believes this to be the case. Remember, $1.20ish is mearly a 3 or 4 days trading away once the market sees positive signs. Breaking above this will require some real positives, but it certainly won't be anything miraculous.
I believe Pike will work. We should get steady state mining by December this year. However, what will the volume be? I have no idea, but I hazard a guess at say 600,000 tonnes per annum. Say one boat load of coal a month. That does not justify a sp of $1.40. At 90 cents, or even 93 cents, it is a buy. Both the Market and Mouse question the volume of coal to be produced by even April next year.

[JoeBlogs]

Fair enough, that makes sense. I'm basing my thinking on the production rate that has been forecast by the engineers - if they can only get slightly more than half that you're right, you wouldn't be unlikely to see the shares north of $1.40.

[Logen Ninefingers]

600,000 tonnes in a year will make shareholders happy, and will easily justify an SP of $1.40. Because it means that production is on the up and up. PRC's not going to be judged on one years production...it's got a couple of decades of life in it. Gordon Ward has previously stated that the mine could hit a maximum of 1,300,000 tonnes production in some years. That will also make shareholders happy.

[Monkey Poms]

mouse, I think you're right in assuming that a reduced advance rate from the road headers would reduce hydro output proportionally (not necessarily what can be mined, but how quickly each panel can be prepared for hydro). Of course, in that case the opposite would be true for a better than forecast advance rate. Remember the forecast rates were adjusted to be much more conservative a while ago, that could possibly give some potential upside?

I've compared the last 2 mine schematics (28 April/2 June) and using the inseam drill holes (400 m in coal) for rough scale, I've estimated roading advance rates over this period (30-35 day) to be 7 - 8.2 m per day - this compares favourably to the newest pre-hydro advance forecasts of 6 m per day. Also for some of this period one of the road drives was in stone so I can only assume the advance rate picked up some time in the middle. Even using 7 m per day, you get an advance since 28 April of around 470 m. My brain hurts now, so I'll leave it for someone else to estimate a tonnage based on this. Of course this is all very crude stuff, but could indicate some good news on the way?

Hi Joe.
Coal in situe weighs roughly 1 tonne per cubic metre. All we need now is for Mouse to ring the Blackball Hilton to get the information on the height and width of the roadway,then we can take a stab at making a calculated guess on the coal stocks.

Length of roadway (470mtrs) x Height (?) x Width (?) = Cubic metres (?)

= Coal on stock

I think the roadways would be cut to the full height of 9 - 12 metres and pinned with roof bolts. It's
difficult to guess the width by the photographs on the Pike website. I have been to the mine and have seen the washer and loading facilities. Due to the ventilation problem at the time I didn't have the opportunity to see the size of the roadways.

It makes no sense to transport coal to India on 20,000 tonne vessels if the buyer can handle a Panamax size ship ( 60,000 tonnes cargo ). It would cost the buyer 30 - 40% more on freight if he took the smaller cargo.

On Monday we topped up our shareholdings in Pike, at around the 89 cents level. Can't believe they're so cheap. You guys must be feeling really weary now, but it won't be long before you're all smiling. Don't sell yourselves short, you've waited too long, Pay Day; it's just round the corner.

Lack of information from Pike would have shaken out some shareholders.
New Zealand's equivalent of Warren Buffet ( Balance ) is probably now supporting your mine, as he has not slagged us off for weeks.

Monkey Poms.

[JoeBlogs]

I agree with that Logen, I took mouse's comment to mean a production rate of 600,000 tonnes being the peak which IMO would not justify a SP above $1.40 in the current market, but if the rate continues to increase as planned that's a different story.

Monkey Poms, cheers for that - from what I can tell the only supprises we should expect regarding this coal shipment would be to the upside - you're right about the weariness! Hopefully things will become clearer in the near term! Again, just stabbing in the dark here, but say you had 10 x 10 m, that would be about 50,000 tonnes of coal since the 23 March diagram, not including any extracted from the pit bottom before that (assuming 200 m in coal between 23 March and 2 June, and 8 m/day since then (280 m)).

[Baddarcy]

600,000 tonnes in a year will make shareholders happy, and will easily justify an SP of $1.40. Because it means that production is on the up and up. PRC's not going to be judged on one years production...it's got a couple of decades of life in it. Gordon Ward has previously stated that the mine could hit a maximum of 1,300,000 tonnes production in some years. That will also make shareholders happy.

I agree with Logen, it's really just simple maths for me... as follows:

Coal Price = $USD225
Exchange Rate = 0.70
Fixed Mine Costs = $NZD60 million
Transport Costs = $NZD40 per tonne

So the maths is:

$USD225 per tonne * 600,000 tonnes = $USD 135 Million
Converted to NZD @ 0.70 = $NZD 192 Million
Less Fixed Mine Costs of $60 million = $132 Million
Less Transport Costs of $40 * 600,000 =$108 Million

$108,000,000 divided by 404,000,000 shares = earnings of 26.7 cents per share

Have to admit i would be fairly happy with that !!!

[Monkey Poms]

I agree with Logen, it's really just simple maths for me... as follows:

Coal Price = $USD225
Exchange Rate = 0.70
Fixed Mine Costs = $NZD60 million
Transport Costs = $NZD40 per tonne

So the maths is:

$USD225 per tonne * 600,000 tonnes = $USD 135 Million
Converted to NZD @ 0.70 = $NZD 192 Million
Less Fixed Mine Costs of $60 million = $132 Million
Less Transport Costs of $40 * 600,000 =$108 Million

$108,000,000 divided by 404,000,000 shares = earnings of 26.7 cents per share

Have to admit i would be fairly happy with that !!!

Hi. Baddarcy.

Going by your calculation although i think the price of US $ 225 is on the low side.
The extra 400,000 tons production at some point in the future taking the annual coal production to 1,000,000 tons.
puts NZ$72,000,000 on to the bottom line = earnings per share 44.6 cents.
How far would this put Pike up the league table of the NZX regarding the P/E ratio based on the share price as it stands today.
If, as i do, you think management will eventually reach target production rates. Our hypothetical P/E puts pike up the table,
it should tell shareholders one thing, that as it stands now, the SP in Pike is way undervalued. ( Time will tell )

Monkey Poms

[JoeBlogs]

Looking for a trendline break today, hopefully that will be the start of it!

[mouse]

Many thanks Monkey Poms. It is a bit difficult to extract info from anyone at present. Will keep trying, plus we have the Quarterly Report due soon. I am pretty confident at present. Will not sell at $1.50 now!

[peat]

I've charted PRC as it might be seen
EWI Count - showing a 5 wave impulse showing alternation containing a 4th wave triangle followed by an abc corrective and having now just completed a 2nd wave (which is allowed to be up to 99% of wave 1).
This particular count has a break point at the yellow box as then wave c would be extending, though .70 is a better stop for those with more tolerance.

There was an inverted head and shoulders at the end of the c wave. but wave 2 (now) has retraced a lot and wave 3 needs to assert very soon

There is a Bullish Gartley as the two triangle and so I've included the 618 and 768 fibs but this pattern failed recently in PRC0A so should really wait for more confirmation or in fact this pattern could already be considered to have played out (in the most recent wave 1

So fwiw this count would imply we are about to enter a 3rd of a third - and should be powerfully impulsive
FWIW I just want to give you PRC stalwarts hope. ;+)
Any comments appreciated.

[Dr_Who]

The short sellers are pushing over eachother to cover their short position. Cant get stock when everyone wants it. :)

[JoeBlogs]

Thanks peat, I'm interested in the psychology behind Elliot waves - looks like the wave 3 you're pointing to might be getting underway, and it looks to have started with very strong impulse! Would we expect this one to break above the top of the blue triangle?

[peat]

if the count is correct then yes JB as a wave 3 would subdivide into an impulsive 5 wave count and this would eventually take it far above the top of recent wave 1 Even the eventual correction of wave 4 after wave 3 should not pierce the top of wave 1. 3rd waves are strong and show no divergence.

but I'm no expert so I'm just sharing my thoughts - the EW theory is complex and I post to draw comment and criticism.

[JoeBlogs]

You're certainly more of an expert than me ;) Great price action this morning, extremely thin on the sells above $1.00 - hopefully we can bust through, but it's already been a huge run-up so might not happen today.

[Logen Ninefingers]

Look out Mouse, it's going to be 'Dawn of the Dead' come April, you'll have zombie hordes roaming the streets......

[JoeBlogs]

Haha, 2 bucks by April! I bet mouse will be the first to welcome the zombies!

[Billy Boy]

Banpu T/O offer for Centennial Coal at $6-20 (33% rise today) would seem to be an obvious reason for this morning's aroused interest in Pike.

The new media are reporting the same thing.
I,m wondering if that is the real reason ??? Good call though Colin.
The media probably got the idea from your post.
A good quarterly I think or "BLOCKY's" ANN CUMMING at work.:D
OK, OK Blocky I deserve it...............
cheers BB:)

[Mr Tommy]

The new media are reporting the same thing.
I,m wondering if that is the real reason ??? Good call though Colin.
The media probably got the idea from your post.
A good quarterly I think or "BLOCKY's" ANN CUMMING at work.:D
OK, OK Blocky I deserve it...............
cheers BB:)

Not that I really think Pike would be a takeover target just yet, but NZOG was thinking ahead when they did the finance deal a few months back, to get access to the coal:

Pike to grant an option to NZOG (the Coal Contract Option),
exercisable at any time until 31 March 2012, to enter into an offtake
agreement to purchase Pike coking coal at market prices to be negotiated
annually. The maximum volumes which may be purchased under the offtake
agreement would be the currently uncontracted coal quantities until 31 March
2013 and up to 30% of annual coal production for the remaining life of mine.

[Baddarcy]

What a funny old day that was, off like a rocket in the morning, only to end up back where we started at the close :-)

And still left waiting for some real news from the mine !!!

[the machine]

Not that I really think Pike would be a takeover target just yet, but NZOG was thinking ahead when they did the finance deal a few months back, to get access to the coal:

Pike to grant an option to NZOG (the Coal Contract Option),
exercisable at any time until 31 March 2012, to enter into an offtake
agreement to purchase Pike coking coal at market prices to be negotiated
annually. The maximum volumes which may be purchased under the offtake
agreement would be the currently uncontracted coal quantities until 31 March
2013 and up to 30% of annual coal production for the remaining life of mine.

but if they buy at market price, then where is the margin for nzo when they sell it.
Maybe selling the rights tothe offtake agreement would be a money spinner

M

[Baddarcy]

but if they buy at market price, then where is the margin for nzo when they sell it.
Maybe selling the rights tothe offtake agreement would be a money spinner

M

By "Market Price" they mean the quarterly agreed price. So what NZO would be looking to do is buy at the "Market Price" which right now is $USD225 and the sell it onto the Spot Market at the spot price which i last heard was about $USD240 and make a cool $USD15 per tonne.

Multiply that out to the 30% of Pikes production of 1m tonnes per year is 300,000 * 15 = $USD4,500,000 converted to NZD at 70c = $NZD6.4 million bucks a year.......

[Logen Ninefingers]

By "Market Price" they mean the quarterly agreed price. So what NZO would be looking to do is buy at the "Market Price" which right now is $USD225 and the sell it onto the Spot Market at the spot price which i last heard was about $USD240 and make a cool $USD15 per tonne.

Multiply that out to the 30% of Pikes production of 1m tonnes per year is 300,000 * 15 = $USD4,500,000 converted to NZD at 70c = $NZD6.4 million bucks a year.......

You want to be holding some NZO once Pike starts cranking.

[Dr_Who]

If they can meet production prc potentially can be a t/o target. Hate to be short in this stock :D

[Logen Ninefingers]

If they can meet production prc potentially can be a t/o target. Hate to be short in this stock :D

That's a tasty piece of bait. I feel a disturbance in the force. Somewhere, in his fortress of evil, the dark lord Banceal is watching.

[Balance]

You want to be holding some NZO once Pike starts cranking.

Why buy the pig when you can eat the sausage?

NZO has systematically squandered the millions it has - investing into dry wells, PPP, PRC etc.

[Logen Ninefingers]

Why buy the pig when you can eat the sausage?

Because with this particular pig you can get coal flavoured sausages, and oily ham, and gassy bacon.

[Balance]

Because with this particular pig you can get coal flavoured sausages, and oily ham, and gassy bacon.

Rapidly deteriorating ham and bacon .....

[Corporate]

Because with this particular pig you can get coal flavoured sausages, and oily ham, and gassy bacon.

I'm sorry but if the reason to invest in NZO is PIKE. Then sell NZO and buy PIKE.

[Logen Ninefingers]

NZO has systematically squandered the millions it has - investing into dry wells, PPP, PRC etc.

Ok, they are successful with this drill, that's 2 out of the 3 above investments which have come good. PRC starts rolling, hydro-mining does the business, that's the 3rd taken care of. In terms of ewhere they've invested, you can't say the games over when there's still time on the clock.

[Balance]

Ok, they are successful with this drill, that's 2 out of the 3 above investments which have come good. PRC starts rolling, hydro-mining does the business, that's the 3rd taken care of. In terms of ewhere they've invested, you can't say the games over when there's still time on the clock.

2 out of 3?

Not even 1 out of 3 yet!

[Logen Ninefingers]

2 out of 3?

Not even 1 out of 3 yet!

That's right. That's what I've said. Events have to play out completely before you can say that these are 3 failed investments which have squandered millions of dollars. If the investments come off, the opposite will be true.

[Balance]

That's right. That's what I've said. Events have to play out completely before you can say that these are 3 failed investments which have squandered millions of dollars. If the investments come off, the opposite will be true.

Now that the placement stock of 88 cents is out of the way, I think PRC's sp will steadily recover. That was a seriously dumb move by the management to 'gift' shares to new shareholders at 88 cents - but hardly surprising given their track record of making dumb statements and dumb moves. I wrote at that time it was a dumb move but the Pikers were so blinded by their fear of their investment going down the tubes they shouted down any detractors to decisions made by the management - instead of taking the management to task.

To get above $1.00, the company needs to demonstrate it is getting the coal out and in quantity. So where is the black stuff?

Meanwhile, the drilling to date is not confidence boosting and PPP is trading at well under NZO's entry price. When was the most successful drill in NZ?

Buy NZO when you see the sp rocketing ahead of an announcement on a drill result - those on the drilling platform have cellphones.

[Logen Ninefingers]

Buy NZO when you see the sp rocketing ahead of an announcement on a drill result - those on the drilling platform have cellphones.

Cool, SP up to 1.24 now from 1.19 at start of day.

[Balance]

Cool, SP up to 1.24 now from 1.19 at start of day.

That's how you play the game against these NZO buggers.

Meanwhile, tell PRC you want in on the next heavily discounted placement. That's how you are guaranteed to make money with this bunch of half-wits masquerading as managers and miners.

[digger]

That's how you play the game against these NZO buggers.

Meanwhile, tell PRC you want in on the next heavily discounted placement. That's how you are guaranteed to make money with this bunch of half-wits masquerading as managers and miners.

Balance your memory is a big bit short of the facts from some of your earlier posts. About 6 weeks prior to the placement at 88 cents you and i mean YOU posted here saying that pike was so hopeless that they would have to offer at 50 cents and i think once even got to as low as 40 cents. PIKE had to offer a placement at 88 cents as at the time it was or at about the shareprice.It is only after the placement that the price rose.
And even now why complain as you last week could have had all you wanted at 88 cents. In fact you would have been better off than the placement as your money would not have been tied up as long.

[Balance]

Balance your memory is a big bit short of the facts from some of your earlier posts. About 6 weeks prior to the placement at 88 cents you and i mean YOU posted here saying that pike was so hopeless that they would have to offer at 50 cents and i think once even got to as low as 40 cents. PIKE had to offer a placement at 88 cents as at the time it was or at about the shareprice.It is only after the placement that the price rose.
And even now why complain as you last week could have had all you wanted at 88 cents. In fact you would have been better off than the placement as your money would not have been tied up as long.

Look at the sp when PRC made the placement.

Did you confront management and seek an explanation as I know another did? The reply from management was deafening.

Mushrooms get treated accordingly.

[Logen Ninefingers]

That's how you play the game against these NZO buggers.

Meanwhile, tell PRC you want in on the next heavily discounted placement. That's how you are guaranteed to make money with this bunch of half-wits masquerading as managers and miners.

It's clear you see incompetent's and incompetence everywhere. And then if they do manage to surprise you and something value-creating actually happens out of what they do - and in your view no doubt it would be mostly because of luck rather than good management - you'll no doubt be well placed to cash in. ...And I'm not saying you have it entirely wrong.

[Balance]

It's clear you see incompetent's and incompetence everywhere. And then if they do manage to surprise you and something value-creating actually happens out of what they do - and in your view no doubt it would be mostly because of luck rather than good management - you'll no doubt be well placed to cash in. ...And I'm not saying you have it entirely wrong.

Logen, I am not blind to the upside PRC represents.

I do not choose to be a fool however and slavishly accept everything the management and directors dish out, especially when the evidence is overwhelming that they have mismanaged the project.

Name two things they have actually done right and on time. Heck, they cannot even specify the right tracks for their machinery!

Having said all that, let's hope they deliver this time round.

The silence suggests?

[JoeBlogs]

Do we know who's coal is currently being loaded at Lyttelton? (Brave Wind, arrived 7/7, due to leave tomorrow at 14:00)

There are 3 other coal ships planned one after the other from 16/7 to 20/7

[swissboy]

Good question JB if someone knows would they also know the tonnage of the carrier???
Thanks in advance

[JoeBlogs]

Looks like a pretty standard dry cargo ship (bulk carrier) so I'd guess 50-60,000 DWT - as yet not very heavily laden by the webcam pic.

[Logen Ninefingers]

You'd have to think one of the 4 is Pike.

[JoeBlogs]

Brave Wind (http://www.marinetraffic.com/ais/shipdetails.aspx?mmsi=351643000), 71,333 dead weight tonnes, so maybe 60-65,000 tonnes of cargo capacity?

You would Logen, how many do solid normally use?

[Logen Ninefingers]

Brave Wind (http://www.marinetraffic.com/ais/shipdetails.aspx?mmsi=351643000), 71,333 dead weight tonnes, so maybe 60-65,000 tonnes of cargo capacity?

You would Logen, how many do solid normally use?

Pretty sure that Barve Wind particular one is Solid, just by looking at the departure log from June for LPC. You check the agent being used and the destination and the stable of vessels the Brave Wind is from. Seems to me Solid uses McKays and Wilhlemsen as their agents.
Anyway, did you see Gerry Brownlee and a media contingent and a whole load of hoopla down at the wharf for Pike's 2nd ever shipment? No one makes a song and dance about a Solid shipment, it's just business as usual.

[Balance]

Relax, guys.

The word is that PRC will ship the next load of coal on time. Pub talk.

[Logen Ninefingers]

Relax, guys.

The word is that PRC will ship the next load of coal on time. Pub talk.

Thanks Balance. Phew.

[Balance]

Thanks Balance. Phew.

Just don't go buying any shares on the back of pub-talk, okay?

[Logen Ninefingers]

Just don't go buying any shares on the back of pub-talk, okay?

D'oh!!!!!!

[Lion]

D'oh!!!!!!
Oh jeez, don't encourage him please Logen.
Ignore him, he might go away. He thrives on any attention.

(Yes OK, it's a personal statement Balance - come on, you can take it)

[patrick]

Thanks Balance.
CONTINUOUS DISCLOSURE
Continuous..."coming one after the other, without a break"
We all know that the Directors will know now about the July Shipment.
We also know that no shipment or one in excess of 20,000tonnes would alter the sp.
So as the old Latin teacher said "res ipsa locqueter"....it speaks for itself;
The shipment will be in July and 20,000tonnes


IF not the directors may have to consult the Dominion finance boys.

[Logen Ninefingers]

Thanks Balance.
CONTINUOUS DISCLOSURE
Continuous..."coming one after the other, without a break"
We all know that the Directors will know now about the July Shipment.
We also know that no shipment or one in excess of 20,000tonnes would alter the sp.
So as the old Latin teacher said "res ipsa locqueter"....it speaks for itself;
The shipment will be in July and 20,000tonnes


IF not the directors may have to consult the Dominion finance boys.

patrick's faultless logic + pubtalk = done deal

[JoeBlogs]

We all agree there's no way we should now see anything other than 20 kt shipped in July, what I'm more interested in is the accompanying statement regarding hydro mining progress and in-seam drilling, as well as further roadway development in stone - until all the roadways planned to traverse the graben are complete, there is limited capacity for everything else.

[mouse]

We all agree there's no way we should now see anything other than 20 kt shipped in July, what I'm more interested in is the accompanying statement regarding hydro mining progress and in-seam drilling, as well as further roadway development in stone - until all the roadways planned to traverse the graben are complete, there is limited capacity for everything else.
What is concerning is that we had 20,000 tonnes exported in February 2010 and are now on track for another 20,000 tonnes this month. Which only gives 5,000 tonnes per month average production from the headers. We then have Pikes forecast that "Once hydro mining is underway (this quarter) the typical export shipment will be approx 60,000 tonnes." But we do not have an estimate of time for that. Is it 60,000 tonnes per month, quarter, or year? I have no idea. Nor does their Quarterly Activities Report ending March 2010 give any indication of a time frame.
A second question is 'how many headers are being employed?' Maybe the 5,000 tonnes per month is only one header. Maybe two. I do not know. Does anyone have any ideas? If we are now using two headers then 5,000 tonnes per month seems a pretty low production rate.
We are still very clearly in development stage and should maybe be looking for steady state production to be say May 2011. We wait for comment on the June 2010 quarterly report.

[Logen Ninefingers]

What is concerning is that we had 20,000 tonnes exported in February 2010 and are now on track for another 20,000 tonnes this month. Which only gives 5,000 tonnes per month average production from the headers. We then have Pikes forecast that "Once hydro mining is underway (this quarter) the typical export shipment will be approx 60,000 tonnes." But we do not have an estimate of time for that. Is it 60,000 tonnes per month, quarter, or year? I have no idea. Nor does their Quarterly Activities Report ending March 2010 give any indication of a time frame.
A second question is 'how many headers are being employed?' Maybe the 5,000 tonnes per month is only one header. Maybe two. I do not know. Does anyone have any ideas? If we are now using two headers then 5,000 tonnes per month seems a pretty low production rate.
We are still very clearly in development stage and should maybe be looking for steady state production to be say May 2011. We wait for comment on the June 2010 quarterly report.

I had the impression that as soon as hydro mining was in place, the amount of coal coming out of the mine would increase exponentially i.e. pre-hydro-mining and post-hydro mining would be like chalk and cheese. And geez, you'd have to hope so or Pike is rooted.....it can't go on with the pitifully small amounts of coal that have been obtained so far. Until hydro-mining launches and has been going for a while, I can't see how anything we say now will be anything other than ultimately meaningless speculation. There is just nothing to base anything on as yet except the chalk and cheese analogy which tells you nothing about the actual future monthly volumes of coal which will be extracted.

[JoeBlogs]

From what I understand: The reason for the slow increase in production even after first hydro is roadway developement within the graben zone - slow roading advance rates with no coal production. This ties up some of the gear so the prep of hydro panels (roadways up either side) takes longer. That's why they've had to reduce their advance rate forecasts - remember we're only looking for 140 kt in the latter half of this year followed by 480 kt in the first half of calendar 2011. Once all the stone driven roadways are complete (see mine plan schematics), the true production rate will be realised - that's the one I'm interested in - it has been mooted to occur some time before mid 2011. Even so, we should get a good idea of how well hydro is going to work from this first panel which I'd imagine they'll be approaching now. I wonder why they couldn't get in more road header equipment to complete these stone drives? Would surely work out cheaper in the long run.

[Dr_Who]

Dont worry about Hydro mining. If PRC can meet forecast delivery, it will be a milestone and the sp should move up from there.

[mouse]

Frankly Logen and JB, without any statement, all we have is intelligent speculation. I have been a shareholder from the beginning. Sold some, bought some. I now have around 10,000 shares. My concern is for the investors who are trading 'rights'. If JB is right, and I think he is, then the 'rights' are worthless. Since without steady-state production then we do not know what steady state production will eventually be. At around 90 cents Pike is still a 'buy.' However I cannot see Pike getting to $1.40 a share before mid-April.
And I am both a Believer and Optimist.

[friedegg]

id say by xmas everyone will know whether prc has blown another trumpet on thier predictions or not,IF they are close to what they say the options will look rosy,and id expect some chinese interest( key loves them) to beg for nzos stake so they can settle thier families here

[JoeBlogs]

mouse, I only hold the rights, so I clearly don't think they are worthless, high risk? for sure, but not worthless! You just watch what happens if PRC can meet their forecasts re hydro mining - this thing will shoot way up as quickly as it did a couple of years back (maybe not quite so high). The stock market always preceeds what's actually happening, so the fact that things are going to plan will be enough, and you will see the share price appreciate as the production rate does what it is supposed to and there are no more nasty supprises.

friedegg, agree, we will know by xmas

[mouse]

mouse, I only hold the rights, so I clearly don't think they are worthless, high risk? for sure, but not worthless!
friedegg, agree, we will know by xmas
The problem is the March 2010 Quarterly Report. It clearly forecasts 'steady state production' in the first half of 2011. What we need, and what we have not got so far, is a monthly coal production report. It is very simple to do. As shareholders we should be able to insist upon it. But the coal production figures have not been provided. On the present record we will get increased production by Christmas. However we have no idea of the amount. Hopefully the June Quarterly Report will tell us.
Pike! are you listening? Will you do it! An accurate estimate please. On your next Quarterly Report. Plus a monthly coal production report please.
PLEASE, PLEASE, PLEASE!

[Balance]

The problem is the March 2010 Quarterly Report. It clearly forecasts 'steady state production' in the first half of 2011. What we need, and what we have not got so far, is a monthly coal production report. It is very simple to do. As shareholders we should be able to insist upon it. But the coal production figures have not been provided. On the present record we will get increased production by Christmas. However we have no idea of the amount. Hopefully the June Quarterly Report will tell us.
Pike! are you listening? Will you do it! An accurate estimate please. On your next Quarterly Report. Plus a monthly coal production report please.
PLEASE, PLEASE, PLEASE!

Sorry, matey - they have got your money.

How dare you try and be anything else but be kept in the dark like the mushrooms you are all trained to be.

[Logen Ninefingers]

Sorry, matey - they have got your money.

I largely agree with this. They busted a gut to get that 20,000 tonne shipment away because they knew they didn't have a smokey's with the capital raising if they didn't produce something. Now they've got the dosh they needed, the blinds have been drawn again. It's revealing that the last piece of news posted on their website about 50 days ago was basically 'Sweet, we've completed our capital raising'. When they needed the dosh from their shareholders then they did whatever it took to make sure they got it......now they can do as they please again; the pressure's off. They've never been held to account in the past for all the deadlines they've missed.....they likely think it won't be much different in the future.

[JoeBlogs]

Start a pettition mouse! I'm continually frustrated by the lack of info out of PRC management.

The comforting thing is that they only need to average 24 kt per month after the July shipment to meet 140 kt by year end - this is surely a pretty conservative figure, so hopefully no more misses, and some possible upside suprises?

Conversely, to extract 480 kt in 2H11 they will have to reach steady state production (assuming it's 1 mt/year) in January, so again, more ambiguity with the forecasting.

[Baddarcy]

This made me chuckle......

http://www.westcoastnz.com/visit/visit-eventPopup/index.cfm?eventID=702

[Baddarcy]

And we have another coal ship booked at LPC:

PIRO - Cashin Quay 1 - 24/07/10 - CMR SHIPPING LTD COAL

[Baddarcy]

And we have another coal ship booked at LPC:

PIRO - Cashin Quay 1 - 24/07/10 - CMR SHIPPING LTD COAL

hmm probably nothing but in May the Piro was loading or unloading (sorry bit hard to tell from dodgy port records) thermal coal in a port in Gujarat India....

[COLIN]

This made me chuckle......

http://www.westcoastnz.com/visit/visit-eventPopup/index.cfm?eventID=702

I thought the days had long gone, when we sent five-year-olds down the mine!

[mouse]

I thought the days had long gone, when we sent five-year-olds down the mine!
I remember when Labour changed the law so that women could be employed undergound in mines around the clock. They said it was to help women in India! So dont laugh, we could send 5 year olds down the mine. We do have to compete with that type of disgraceful labour laws. I am sure it happens in Indonesia where NZ gets coal from for its coal fired power plants.

[mouse]

Best investment this school holiday if you are in Christchurch and have kids up to ten years of age is 'A Paintbox of Clowns.' On at the Court Theatre this week. Totally brilliant. Go, even if you do not have kids. Cost $8.00 each.

[dsurf]

Monthly Chinese coking coal prices are where they peaked in 2008!!

PRC was $2.50ish in 2008 at the peak which suggests that $1.40 (or $2) is achievable if / when management regain credibility so the options are not worthless today - the management have beaten up the SP with BS - but they seem to be learning from the many many mistakes - in particular the forward drilling that proves coal is available in the immediate future

[Balance]

Monthly Chinese coking coal prices are where they peaked in 2008!!

PRC was $2.50ish in 2008 at the peak which suggests that $1.40 (or $2) is achievable if / when management regain credibility so the options are not worthless today - the management have beaten up the SP with BS - but they seem to be learning from the many many mistakes - in particular the forward drilling that proves coal is available in the immediate future

Pub talk. Coal extraction in progress - coal being stockpiled instead of being shipped to LPC. PRC looking to surprise the market with a bigger than 20,000t number or is it just logistics management?

Good news is that management are finally learning to keep their mouth shut even when brokers and investors ask questions - some real nervousness out there.

Time to move on this thing is when thy confirm hydro-mining in full swing. Happy to buy at $1.20 to ride to $2.00. Those of you who are brave (or foolhardy), happy to let you make the first 30%.

[JoeBlogs]

Those of you who are brave (or foolhardy), happy to let you make the first 30%.

Thanks, I'll take it. They would be wise not to try and suprise the market as this puts them in breach of listing rules (specific forecast for 20,000 tonnes in July, no revisions) - although given indications of progress, I find 20 kt dissapointing.

[Baddarcy]

Thanks, I'll take it. They would be wise not to try and suprise the market as this puts them in breach of listing rules (specific forecast for 20,000 tonnes in July, no revisions) - although given indications of progress, I find 20 kt dissapointing.

I think that they said it was going to be 20kt-30kt, so might be a nice suprise if they did actually ship 30kt instead of the expected 20kt.

Hell actually if the just ship anything this month,i'll be happy as long as Hydro is still on track for Sept, thats all i really want to hear.

[JoeBlogs]

I'm happy to be corrected on this, but the latest reference I could find to the July shipment is on page 3 of the the 31 March QAR (released 30 April) - "The next export 20,000 tonnes is scheduled for July 2010." I would also be happy for someone to clarify my understanding of continuous disclosure rules if I've misinterpreted.

Of course, they would be quite within their rights to ship 20 kt in July, and the rest in August if they do have more on stockpile...

Cheers

[Baddarcy]

Sorry JB i'll give you that one, can't find where i read the 20kt-30kt quote, but did find the below in the capital raising prospectus:

Commissioning of the hydro-mining system is now scheduled for July 2010 reflecting a more conservative ramp-up period (see table below). First hydro-mining is forecast for the July-September 2010 quarter.

[JoeBlogs]

Yes, we should get some info regarding this one shortly too!

[Billy Boy]

Commissioning of the hydro-mining system is now scheduled for July 2010 reflecting a more conservative ramp-up period (see table below). First hydro-mining is forecast for the July-September 2010 quarter.

Reading some of the post above......
"when all else fails", "read the instructions"
BB :)

[JoeBlogs]

How do you figure BB? "Commissioning of the hydro-mining system" is the part I'm refering to, we should get an update on the progress of this (as it is due to happen in July), and (we should get an update on) when first hydro coal is forecast to be extracted.

[patrick]

JOE
This Company surprise the market?

[Billy Boy]

(as it is due to happen in July), and when first hydro coal is forecast to be extracted.
No JB
July/ Sept Quarter :)
BB

[JoeBlogs]

patrick, fair call

BB, you're miss-quoting me mate, commissioning of the hydro mining equipment is due in July, first coal from the system is due in the Jul-Sep quarter. We should get an update on the status of the system, as well as updated forecasts for first hydro coal extraction (which is set to happen in the July-Sep quarter) soon.

[Billy Boy]

Rodger, Dodger
Sorry Mate ??
BB

[Logen Ninefingers]

Maybe Paul the Octopus could sort some of this out for us. I'd also like his advice whether NZO will strike oil at Kahu.

[JoeBlogs]

Paul the octopus for PRC management!!!

[Logen Ninefingers]

Paul the octopus for PRC management!!!

Rather than Henry the Octopus - he's been running things for far too long!!!

[Kees]

An Australian man has been killed after the vehicle he was driving left an icy road and tumbled down a steep bank in New Zealand, police say.

The middle-aged man died at the scene and a male passenger, who is also Australian, was taken to Christchurch Hospital in a stable condition with serious spinal injuries.

Police said frost and icy conditions were major contributors to the crash east of Greymouth, on the west coast of the South Island, about 6am on Monday (0400 AEST).

However, the exact cause was not yet known, Sergeant Andrew Lyes of Greymouth police said.

The Australian men had just arrived in New Zealand to deliver training at a local mining company

[Baddarcy]

If Pike is going to make a 20,000 tonne shipment this month then we can't be far away from some news.

Given they need to move teh coalfrom the mine to the rail line via trucks that can only take 50 tonnes per load, which means 400 round truck trips, then they need to load it onto trains that have a max capacity of 2250 tonnes per train, which means approx 9 - 10 train trips are going to be needed.

As today is the 13th, there are only 18 days left in the month, so this week maybe next week if they want to cut it fine.

[JoeBlogs]

It's getting down to the wire alright, with the last coal ship this month arriving on the 22nd. How many train trips per day can they manage? I would have thought about 1-1.5, so that would mean they need to start within the next few days. I think it's a strange they haven't started stockpiling at the port a bit sooner. Something's up, but what?

[blockhead]

Check the wharf at Greymouth

snigger snigger

[JoeBlogs]

Seriously though, has anyone had a look out at Lyttelton recently? Would be keen to hear of any goings on.

[swissboy]

Info is quite close. Last year they gave the results of the quarter ending June, on the 21st of July whereas the year-end details were weeks later. Some of the information must be able to be interpreted from that I hope.

[Baddarcy]

Apparently LPC can handle 7 trains a day max and can load 500-1000 tonnes per hour of coal onto a ship.

[JoeBlogs]

They started trucking to Ikamatua about a month before the last shipment - can anyone confirm there is a stockpile at the rail loadout facility? If not, I can't imagine the news is good.

[COLIN]

An Australian man has been killed after the vehicle he was driving left an icy road and tumbled down a steep bank in New Zealand, police say.

The middle-aged man died at the scene and a male passenger, who is also Australian, was taken to Christchurch Hospital in a stable condition with serious spinal injuries.

Police said frost and icy conditions were major contributors to the crash east of Greymouth, on the west coast of the South Island, about 6am on Monday (0400 AEST).

However, the exact cause was not yet known, Sergeant Andrew Lyes of Greymouth police said.

The Australian men had just arrived in New Zealand to deliver training at a local mining company
Yes, I noticed that, Kees. I hope that their role was not vital to PRC mining progress. "Press" described them as "consultants", but not in what field. Hydro-mining, perhaps?

[sideline]

An Australian man has been killed after the vehicle he was driving left an icy road and tumbled down a steep bank in New Zealand, police say.

The middle-aged man died at the scene and a male passenger, who is also Australian, was taken to Christchurch Hospital in a stable condition with serious spinal injuries.

Police said frost and icy conditions were major contributors to the crash east of Greymouth, on the west coast of the South Island, about 6am on Monday (0400 AEST).

However, the exact cause was not yet known, Sergeant Andrew Lyes of Greymouth police said.

The Australian men had just arrived in New Zealand to deliver training at a local mining company

from stuff.co.nz:

The men were consultants for Pike River Coal and had arrived in New Zealand on Sunday. Ealam said it appeared that the man's car had hit black ice on the winding Taylorville Rd before crashing down a bank.

.............

A Pike River Coal spokesman said the firm was "very saddened" by the news. The men were about to start their first day of contracting for Pike River Coal, the spokesman said.

[Billy Boy]

I dont know of any Hydro coal mining in ozz
But here is an interesting link
http://coal.infomine.com/careers/jobs/job412583/mining.superintendent.underground.coal.aspx

[sideline]

I dont know of any Hydro coal mining in ozz
But here is an interesting link
http://coal.infomine.com/careers/jobs/job412583/mining.superintendent.underground.coal.aspx

it says:

Location: New South Wales

and ...

Closing Date: August 23, 2010

[Logen Ninefingers]

I tell you, the detective work here is great. We've got people scouring the LPC arrivals log for likely vessels, we've got people siddling up to crusty mining types in the Blackball pub, and offering to buy them a drink while they chat about the mine up the road, we've got people sifting through web and newspaper articles for snippets of info.....I'm sure we've got people hang-gliding over the mine site with high tech photographic equipment. I'm not sure how much concrete information has been garnered, but this is fascinating stuff.

[Billy Boy]

LN your onto it....
But keep feeding the fire ;) ;)

[Billy Boy]

it says:
Location: New South Wales
and ...
Closing Date: August 23, 2010
I know what it says !!!
But read it in conjunction with the posts above
BB

[Kees]

Ealam said it appeared that the man's car had hit black ice on the winding Taylorville Rd before crashing down a bank.

You would think that management be at fault by not informing them of the road conditions in winter specially presuming they are not familiar with the terain.
Bad management?

[Billy Boy]

Ealam said it appeared that the man's car had hit black ice on the winding Taylorville Rd before crashing down a bank.

You would think that management be at fault by not informing them of the road conditions in winter specially presuming they are not familiar with the terain.
Bad management?

Oh ..oh behave old son....
BB

[JoeBlogs]

I tell you, the detective work here is great. We've got people scouring the LPC arrivals log for likely vessels, we've got people siddling up to crusty mining types in the Blackball pub, and offering to buy them a drink while they chat about the mine up the road, we've got people sifting through web and newspaper articles for snippets of info.....I'm sure we've got people hang-gliding over the mine site with high tech photographic equipment. I'm not sure how much concrete information has been garnered, but this is fascinating stuff.

And we've got people brushing up on NZX listing rules and drafting complaints (just incase) ;)

[percy]

Ealam said it appeared that the man's car had hit black ice on the winding Taylorville Rd before crashing down a bank.

You would think that management be at fault by not informing them of the road conditions in winter specially presuming they are not familiar with the terain.
Bad management?

The place where the unfortunate accident happened is 3 hours drive from Christchurch accross the southern Divide.No way they would not have encounted icy round conditions,particulary at Porters Pass and Arthur's Pass.Canterbury roads have had a lot of ice of late.From Greymouth into Backball there are a lot of corners where there is back ice.One corner you are OK the next you are in trouble.To lay fault at management is uncalled for.I was driving in this area 2 weeks ago on a sunny afternoon going to Blackball and noticed a lot of corners had not seen any sun and I had to be very careful.
There are a huge number of road warning signs warning of ice on all the roads they would have used.

[blockhead]

Ealam said it appeared that the man's car had hit black ice on the winding Taylorville Rd before crashing down a bank.

You would think that management be at fault by not informing them of the road conditions in winter specially presuming they are not familiar with the terain.
Bad management?

Its tough Kees, but blame management ??? Come on, if I was heading to a job on the far side of Oz I wouldn't blame Management if I hit a Roo, I would say "sh.t I hit a roo", same as those fellows would have been saying as they were travelling along, "sh.t its icy here", unfortunately they had a serious accident.

[JoeBlogs]

Agreed; very unfortunate that this accident took place and sad someone was killed, but it's a bit rich to expect management to inform itinerant contractors of conditions that are obvious, and in no way unique to the location (driving a winding, shaded road through snow covered mountains in middle of winter with plenty of signs warning of slippery ice). Of course, in more litigious societies like America, and to a lesser extent Australia, some may be of the opinion that this was "someone else's fault". Thank goodness that's not the case here, and lets keep it that way - personal responsibility!

[Kees]

but it's a bit rich to expect management to inform itinerant contractors of conditions that are obvious

just my point might be obvious to locals but to uninformed and presumably strangers to such conditions i would be asking question of my human resource manager.

[percy]

but it's a bit rich to expect management to inform itinerant contractors of conditions that are obvious

just my point might be obvious to locals but to uninformed and presumably strangers to such conditions i would be asking question of my human resource manager.

If you go to Google maps and enter Christchurch airport to Blackball you will see time is 3 hours 41 mins,and the distince is 241 kis.So they did not crash on the first icy corner they came to.
All along the way there are warning signs.warning sign after warning sign.After over 3 hours and 241 kls you are no stranger to the conditions,

[JoeBlogs]

driving a winding, shaded road through snow covered mountains in middle of winter with plenty of signs warning of slippery ice

= obvious!!!

You would be insulting the intelligence of Australians in general to suggest otherwise. I don't have to worry about crocodiles in NZ, but you sure as hell wouldn't see me taking a dip in any old billabong in Queesnland - and I wouldn't expect the Aussie firm I'm working for to advise me of that.

Not commenting on this accident specifically as I don't know the details, just the idea that HR have a resposibility to educate visitors about this sort of thing.

[Kees]

You would be insulting the intelligence of Australians in general to suggest otherwise. I don't have to worry about crocodiles in NZ, but you sure as hell wouldn't see me taking a dip in any old billabong in Queesnland - and I wouldn't expect the Aussie firm I'm working for to advise me of that.

NO but I bet that if you had expertiece in a particular field and were imported to perform a job that the company has spend millions on they would make sure you arrived safely on the job even if they had to wrap you up in cotton wool.


this is conjecture only don't know what they did personnaly only by what was in the paper.

[Hoop]

= obvious!!!

You would be insulting the intelligence of Australians in general to suggest otherwise. I don't have to worry about crocodiles in NZ, but you sure as hell wouldn't see me taking a dip in any old billabong in Queesnland - and I wouldn't expect the Aussie firm I'm working for to advise me of that.

Not commenting on this accident specifically as I don't know the details, just the idea that HR have a resposibility to educate visitors about this sort of thing.



http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/PikeRiverCoalmineandcrocs.jpg

[Financially dependant]

They started trucking to Ikamatua about a month before the last shipment - can anyone confirm there is a stockpile at the rail loadout facility? If not, I can't imagine the news is good.

Have you had a look at the LPC web cam, last time I looked all I saw was logs....

[JoeBlogs]

Doesn't really show anything unless a coal ship is being loaded. I'm more interested in the stockpile at Ikamatua as that seems to be the bottleneck.

[Logen Ninefingers]

Have you had a look at the LPC web cam, last time I looked all I saw was logs....

Do we know if PRC are shipping logs? Might be a stop-gap until they can get some coal production happening. I'd say if they can get away about 20,000 tones of prime west coast timber, that should be worth a few million, at least until they can get some coal production happening. Can someone check this out down at the Blackball pub?? There's good money to be made outta logs, and that's a fact.

[JoeBlogs]

Only one flaw with that plan - it will reverse all the conservation goodwill gained from all those rats and stotes they've so proudly killed. Still, with PRC at the helm, nobody would know what was going on, so they'd probibly get away with it!

[Logen Ninefingers]

You guys keep this on the down low, but word from the Blackball pub is that the blue duck breeding program is going so well that PRC's set to do it's first shipment of blue ducks soon. Don't expect to see anything about this on the PRC website; word from the Blackball pub is that Gordon Ward will be making an announcement to about 25 duck enthusiasts at a small country hall somewhere in the wop-wops. Word is that Ward said to those in the know (duck enthusiasts / Blackball pub enthusiasts) that the first blue duck shipment would be in late July, but word from the Blackball pub (not PRC website) is that we may see some ducks in August, or September (October/November at the latest) .....pre-christmas for sure.........they need to get all their ducks in a row first.

[Balance]

You guys keep this on the down low, but word from the Blackball pub is that the blue duck breeding program is going so well that PRC's set to do it's first shipment of blue ducks soon. Don't expect to see anything about this on the PRC website; word from the Blackball pub is that Gordon Ward will be making an announcement to about 25 duck enthusiasts at a small country hall somewhere in the wop-wops. Word is that Ward said to those in the know (duck enthusiasts / Blackball pub enthusiasts) that the first blue duck shipment would in late July, but word from the Blackball pub (not PRC website) is that we may see some ducks in August, or September (October/November at the latest) .....pre-christmas for sure.........they need to get all their ducks in a row first.

You forgot about the snails being gathered and shipped to France? The Pike escoalgots?

[COLIN]

http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/PikeRiverCoalmineandcrocs.jpg

Very clever, Hoop.
Question: Do crocodiles eat snails?

[glennj]

I've been at Blackball and Ikamatua on three different occasions last week but don't have a lot to offer beyond my last post. However one tip is
that the Blackball Salami Company Cumberland sausages are very good.
I'm still monitoring things by chatting with some of the workers and contractors, miners from some of the other mines and occasionally management.
May post again if I hear anything vastly different is happening on/under the ground than the press releases (omissions) are revealing.

[Baddarcy]

Goldman Sachs JBWere - July 2010

Goldman Sachs JBWere updated research on 12 July 2010 with a 12 month price target of NZ$1.50 and a BUY recommendation. Contact person matthew.henry@gsjbw.com

[winner69]

Goldman Sachs JBWere - July 2010

Goldman Sachs JBWere updated research on 12 July 2010 with a 12 month price target of NZ$1.50 and a BUY recommendation. Contact person matthew.henry@gsjbw.com

Good one eh

[JoeBlogs]

Not much of an update??? Same as their May update.

[Baddarcy]

Not much of an update??? Same as their May update.

yeah i thought that too, but couldn't remember for certain.

At least it didn't go down :-)

[JoeBlogs]

I don't know why they've bothered updating their report at all - there have been absolutely no changes worth worrying about. Maybe they just like to keep their interested parties updated - not something I'd be familiar with :/

[Logen Ninefingers]

Have been told previously to go to the PRC website for all the latest info, so here's the latest info:

Latest news and reports
================
Latest news: 21 May 2010:
$90 Million Capital Raising Completed
Pike River Coal Limited advises that its $90 million capital raising has been successfully completed today.

[JoeBlogs]

Damn, I keep forgetting about that. Thanks again for the heads-up.

The last news release is actually a brilliant commentry on how they see their humble shareholders - "Now we have your $90 million, have a couple of months in the mushroom farm"

Interesting that June was the first month (for as far back as I looked) that their were absolutely no releases from PRC.

[Logen Ninefingers]

They're too busy counting all that lovely money!!! $90 million bucks!!!! Yeeeehaaaaa!!!!!!

[Balance]

Damn, I keep forgetting about that. Thanks again for the heads-up.

The last news release is actually a brilliant commentry on how they see their humble shareholders - "Now we have your $90 million, have a couple of months in the mushroom farm"

Interesting that June was the first month (for as far back as I looked) that their were absolutely no releases from PRC.

Indeed - how dare you peasants question what and how we use the money!

We gave a lot of it in recent times to the favored few who were able to get shares at 88 cents, and sold to make good money. That is our perogative and you just keep coming out with cash when we want it, savvy?

[JoeBlogs]

Balance, you would be naieve to think that all here are happy to roll over and accept the inadequate treatment we receive from PRC.

[Balance]

Balance, you would be naieve to think that all here are happy to roll over and accept the inadequate treatment we receive from PRC.

Really?

Strange the mouthpieces of PRC have gone so quiet.

[Dr_Who]

Balance, you would be naieve to think that all here are happy to roll over and accept the inadequate treatment we receive from PRC.

There was plenty of opportunity for investors to buy below 88 cents only a few weeks back, yet we heard nothing. But once the sp goes up, out comes all the BS...LOL. Shorters who got caught must be hurting.

[Balance]

There was plenty of opportunity for investors to buy below 88 cents only a few weeks back, yet we heard nothing. But once the sp goes up, out comes all the BS...LOL. Shorters who got caught must be hurting.

Big difference being given stock at 88 cents when the sp is above $1.10 (instant profit) versus buying on market at 88 cents. Not hard to figure out which is a gift and which one is not.

Nice one!

[JoeBlogs]

For those of you eagerly awaiting information, PRC have advised (in response to an email) Q2 Quarterly is due for release in the last week of July, and will cover all relevant info.

[mouse]

For those of you eagerly awaiting information, PRC have advised (in response to an email) Q2 Quarterly is due for release in the last week of July, and will cover all relevant info.
Joe, you have more info than me, and I have sent Pike two e-mails!
Next, comments on coal stockpiling at Lyttelton. The reason Pike is not shipping its coal over to the port before it needs to is that they may, and probably do, have to pay a pay a rental once the coal is on site at the port. This is due to the port having to stop coal dust flying all over Lyttelton. Before they installed sprinklers? the dust was covering everything. No more, the coal is loaded without too much mess etc. But dust prevention has to be paid for. By Pike. Hence maybe no coal yet at Lyttelton.
Next, 20,000 tonnes is quite a small shipment. The rail line can easily deal with it in a few days. Normal shipments will be 60,000 tonnes. Which may require stockpiling at Lyttelton for a week or so.
Both of the above comments are from my knowledge of Lyttelton, which is a ten minute drive from my house.

[JoeBlogs]

Thanks mouse, that all makes sense. It's not getting the coal to Lyttelton that I'm wondering about, but the trucking to the rail loadout facility - but I guess nobody knows!

[Monkey Poms]

HI. JOE
I was lucky enough to be there the day pike started to move coal in bulk from the mine stocking ground to the stocking ground at Ikamatua.
Whoever organised the transport had the right amount of trucks on the job. Trucks were loaded as soon as they backed up to the coal stockpile no waiting time.
It took about 3 to 4 minutes for a truck and trailer to discharge at a guess 30 tons of coal down the hopper to be taken away by conveyor to be stockpiled.
Any operation of this kind is as good as its weakest link possibly the tonnage the conveyor can handle ie the number of trucks tipping per hour at Ikamatua.
A truck parked over the hopper discharging coal and at any one time two loaded trucks were waiting their turn to tip.
1 Hour ÷ 4 min discharge per truck = 15 trucks per hour = 450 tons per hour x 18 hours per day = 8100 tons per day coal movement mine to rail loading facility.
about 7.5 days to fill a panamax vessel of 60000 tons.
Without pushing the coal truck discharge rate of 4 min to 3 min the weakest link is more than enough to handle any movement of coal from mine to port.

Monkey Poms

[Monkey Poms]

Big difference being given stock at 88 cents when the sp is above $1.10 (instant profit) versus buying on market at 88 cents. Not hard to figure out which is a gift and which one is not.

Nice one!

HI Balance.

In about 4 to 5 weeks time coal will start to be produced at a reasonable rate I am nominating you to police the price Pike will obtain FOB for each cargo
compared with the spot price of prime Australian coking coal. You will be perfect for the job, we don't want Pike to make gifts or subsidise coal to customers who happen to also
be shareholders of Pike ( The two Indian companies & NZO )

The finance director will probably say and do anything in his power to raise the funds to complete this project that is what finance directors do. Some of us may not agree with the terms offered. Ask yourself where would Pike be now if Gordon had failed to raise the funds to complete the project.

Balance i am sure you have been caught short in the past. You would say and do anything to use someone's toilet to save the embarrassment.
when the chips are down you do what you have to do.

Monkey Poms

[JoeBlogs]

Monkey Poms, thanks very much! That's the info I was after and clears a lot up for me.

It effectively means total transport from mine to ship of 20,000 tonnes could be (comfortably) done in 3-5 days.

Cheers

[rainey]

It is 5 months since the first shipment, and is my gues that they are keeping us in the dark as a surprise that the next shipment will be much larger than the first. Does any one know if they are stockpiling at Ikamatua yet. I take it Monkey Poms that your discharge times at Ika. were for the earlier shipment

[JoeBlogs]

They can't suprise us in that way as it's against listing rules. It would have called for an upward revision as soon as they were confident of increasing shipment size. Yes, Monkey Poms was refering to the first shipment.

[Balance]

HI Balance.


The finance director will probably say and do anything in his power to raise the funds to complete this project that is what finance directors do. Some of us may not agree with the terms offered. Ask yourself where would Pike be now if Gordon had failed to raise the funds to complete the project.

Balance i am sure you have been caught short in the past. You would say and do anything to use someone's toilet to save the embarrassment.
when the chips are down you do what you have to do.

Monkey Poms

No, Monkey Poms.

I am surprised that you are happy to condone and encourage such behavior by anyone, especially PRC.

[Logen Ninefingers]

For those of you eagerly awaiting information, PRC have advised (in response to an email) Q2 Quarterly is due for release in the last week of July, and will cover all relevant info.

So they could say in the last week of July "the July shipment has been postponed to August / September" and they would have met disclosure rules(?)
Who do we have here who is a guru regarding disclosure rules? Anyone able to clarify?

[Balance]

So they could say in the last week of July "the July shipment has been postponed to August / September" and they would have met disclosure rules(?)
Who do we have here who is a guru regarding disclosure rules? Anyone able to clarify?

Simplistically, a listed company must disclose price-sensitive information as soon as it is available.

Give NZX a call and put them on notice.

[root]

What I'm waiting to hear is that Hydro mining is feasible at that site, and then that they can cope with the logistics of the expected volumes. Any coal shipments in the interim don't concern me that much as PRC are still in the startup phase.

[Logen Ninefingers]

What I'm waiting to hear is that Hydro mining is feasible at that site, and then that they can cope with the logistics of the expected volumes. Any coal shipments in the interim don't concern me that much as PRC are still in the startup phase.

July shipment is relevant in respect to PRC delivering on what has been stated, and disclosing any price-sensitive information as soon as it is available.
And that goes to the heart of how PRC conduct themselves now and in the future.

[root]

I understand what your saying LN, and your frustration. I just don't know that this shipment is that big as a milestone. If we haven't heard anything about the success of the Hydro mining by mid August, well that will be a great time to panic.

You could argue that everything that happens in a business is material to the SP, continuous disclosure of production rates and shipments, I'm guessing, is not the norm.

I might just have owned Pike for a shorter period of time and may be carrying less scar tissue. We'll see where I am in a couple of months.

[Balance]

What I'm waiting to hear is that Hydro mining is feasible at that site, and then that they can cope with the logistics of the expected volumes. Any coal shipments in the interim don't concern me that much as PRC are still in the startup phase.

If Gordon Ward was seen going into the mine with a rubber hose and coming out with a handful of coal, can PRC say that hyro-mining is now in progress and extracting coal?

[root]

If he can meet the the scheduled production rates that would be Ok by me. ;)

[JoeBlogs]

So they could say in the last week of July "the July shipment has been postponed to August / September" and they would have met disclosure rules(?)
Who do we have here who is a guru regarding disclosure rules? Anyone able to clarify?

No, not if that would be considered to have a material impact of stock valuation - which it would. Lets just say the exchange has (once again) been alerted to the questionable disclosure practices of PRC, and the coming events will be scrutinised carefully. As you mention, the importance of this shipment is being underestimated by some, as it is a direct indicator of whether or not management have sorted out their inability to make accurate forecasts, and will have a large bearing on the usefulness of future forecasts.

I have a feeling all is going to plan, but that still doesn't excuse the sustained lack of information at a critical time. Only when management have proven their trustworthiness with regards to forecasts should they be allowed to rely solely on quarterly information releases to keep the market up to date.

[mouse]

Monkey Poms have stated that Pike Coal is excellent for hydro mining. I am very happy to accept their comment as being accurate. The problem however is actually applying the system down a coal mine. It may be more difficult and with some fishhooks. Hence we need to learn how to operate the system, get all the ducks in a row, and have steady production. Which is next year. Do not complain, that is how it is. But around 90 cents, maybe even under a dollar, Pike is an excellent buy. Disclosure, I hold about 10,000 shares plus 2,600 options.

[patrick]

Gordon is weighing out the 20,000 tonnes as we sleep; not a kilo more not a kilo less.




Well; he better be.

[Monkey Poms]

If he can meet the the scheduled production rates that would be Ok by me. ;)

Root What a gem of a post your timing to capture the mood of the forum perfect if i did not own shares in Pike this forum would still be the first page to read in the morning.

Monkey Poms.

[mouse]

Root What a gem of a post your timing to capture the mood of the forum perfect if i did not own shares in Pike this forum would still be the first page to read in the morning.

Monkey Poms.
I think the posts are wonderful. Essential reading. We have Monkey Poms, in UK, who are our experts on mining. We take their word for what is feasable and that a tonne of coal approximately occupies a cubic metre of space. They are quite invaluable and have also worked out that Pike coal is pretty good for hydro-mining. I am delighted with their information. Er, the only thing that bothers me is, why have we not got that expertise here in NZ? Far more important, why does not one of Pikes management, or even a humble miner, post on here to give us some guidance from the Coal Face? They can do it and give us a general indication of how things are going without being too much in contravention of security laws. No names, just a bit of useful info. We get it at present from UK!

[blockhead]

The humble miner and the management probably would not be able to get up off the floor laughing after reading all the crap we post on here.

I enjoy it though !

[JoeBlogs]

If he can meet the the scheduled production rates that would be Ok by me. ;)

Isn't that what we're all saying? The way we are told about it is important too though. My mental telepathy skills are not great.

Anyway, I'm waiting with baited breath for the end of the month - hopefully all will become clearer.

[Balance]

The humble miner and the management probably would not be able to get up off the floor laughing after reading all the crap we post on here.

I enjoy it though !

Agreed.

Especially the "PRC can do no wrong" postings from Pikers who adore the very coal dust which falls off the miner and management overalls.

Where else in the world do you get shareholders who will condone anything that the management throws at them - bs and all!

[Beagle]

Agreed.

Especially the "PRC can do no wrong" postings from Pikers who adore the very coal dust which falls off the miner and management overalls.

Where else in the world do you get shareholders who will condone anything that the management throws at them - bs and all!

Agreed + 1 This stock is a howling DOG riddled with fleas that has consistently failed to get anywhere near stated targets. All we get is more excuses and more corporate spin. Is there anyone out there that still believes they will eventually mine 1 million tons of coal a year ?

[777]

I think the last two posts is what Blockie is referring to.

[Logen Ninefingers]

PRC's SP dipping a bit.....they're going at the coal face like crazy with a garden hose and toothpicks no doubt.....the dude who is supposed to be updating the website has been called down to the mine by a desperate GW and he's trying to chisel out little lumps of coal with a butter knife, and once he gets a little pile together GW's taking it out in a little plastic bucket and dumping it in a wheel-barrow. That's why there are no updates on the website...it's all hands to the pump.

[Logen Ninefingers]

22 Jul 2009
Faults delay PRC Japan order
By TINA LAW
PRC said yesterday that its first coal shipment of 60,000 tonnes was now scheduled to leave for Japan in mid-November, six weeks behind schedule.

================================================== =================================================
Hahahahahaha.......one year on and we only have 20,000 tonnes confirmed out of this mine!!!!! Hohohoho.......what a farce, what a joke. This crowd are biggest bunch of comedians out.

[peat]

22 Jul 2009
Faults delay PRC Japan order
By TINA LAW
PRC said yesterday that its first coal shipment of 60,000 tonnes was now scheduled to leave for Japan in mid-November, six weeks behind schedule.

================================================== =================================================
Hahahahahaha.......one year on and we only have 20,000 tonnes confirmed out of this mine!!!!! Hohohoho.......what a farce, what a joke. This crowd are biggest bunch of comedians out.

whats the point in quoting articles a year old LN?

[Beagle]

PRC's SP dipping a bit.....they're going at the coal face like crazy with a garden hose and toothpicks no doubt.....the dude who is supposed to be updating the website has been called down to the mine by a desperate GW and he's trying to chisel out little lumps of coal with a butter knife, and once he gets a little pile together GW's taking it out in a little plastic bucket and dumping it in a wheel-barrow. That's why there are no updates on the website...it's all hands to the pump.

lol, too funny, but sadly, probably not far from the truth.

[Logen Ninefingers]

Quoting from July 2009 articles 1 year further on put's everything in context as far as I'm concerned.
Not sure why people are looking forward to some announcement at the end of July to provide clarity....there was supposed to be a shipment in July. The continuous cheer-leading that goes on here does wear a bit thin. To have the last news out of PRC as 'capital raising completed' dating from 21 May is the absolute height of bloody arrogance as far as I'm concerned. That may be the most important thing to them - getting $90 million bucks together - but to the ordinary rank and file shareholder the most important thing is seeing some action in return for the money invested.

[Balance]

It put's everything in context as far as I'm concerned.
Not sure why people are looking forward to some announcement at the end of July to provide clarity....there was supposed to be a shipment in July. The continuous cheer-leading that goes on here does wear a bit thin. To have the last news out of PRC as 'capital raising completed' dating from 21 May is the absolute height of bloody arrogance as far as I'm concerned. That may be the most important thing to them - getting $90 million bucks together - but to the ordinary rank and file shareholder the most important thing is seeing some action in return for the money invested.

They have been patiently waiting for 2.5 years - what's another month?

[JoeBlogs]

Quoting from July 2009 articles 1 year further on put's everything in context as far as I'm concerned.
Not sure why people are looking forward to some announcement at the end of July to provide clarity....there was supposed to be a shipment in July. The continuous cheer-leading that goes on here does wear a bit thin. To have the last news out of PRC as 'capital raising completed' dating from 21 May is the absolute height of bloody arrogance as far as I'm concerned. That may be the most important thing to them - getting $90 million bucks together - but to the ordinary rank and file shareholder the most important thing is seeing some action in return for the money invested.

While I completely agree with your sentiments, there should still be a shipment in July - we may not hear about it till after it happens. I agree with the comment re the hight of arrogance.

[Balance]

While I completely agree with your sentiments, there should still be a shipment in July - we may not hear about it till after it happens. I agree with the comment re the hight of arrogance.

Trouble is that the Pikers cheerleaders here want to 'see no evil, hear no evil and wants no-one to speak any evil of PRC - irrespective of how badly run and how badly PRC treats shareholders.

So is it any wonder PRC treats shareholders as mere cash machines to tap into?

[JoeBlogs]

I guess it's human nature to want to see only the positives of something you have a vested interest in - and people do have differing opinions regarding what's important - I'm not going to hold it against anyone.

My stance hasn't changed - I like PRC as a speculative play, I dislike the handling of information relevant to shareholders. This is of course just my opinion. (oh, and I love some of the comic relief on here! - god knows we need it!)

[Logen Ninefingers]

The Seven Dwarves are up there, flailing away at the unforgiving coal-face with their pick-axes. The blue ducks have been enticed into the mine too, GW's affixed little pieces of bread all over the coal-face and the ducks have had minature chisels attached to their beaks....when they go to eat the bread, the chisel hits the coal-face and fragments of coal flake off!!! GW is following behind with a dust-buster, and he hoovers up the precious coal. The rats and stoats they captured have been trained to haul out miniature coal carts, and every time GW fills up the bag on his dust-buster, he dumps it's load in the little coal cart, yells "mush" and away goes the little coal cart, pulled by a team of rats and stoats, with one of the Seven Dwarves driving. They've already got 20,000 grams out!!!!

[JoeBlogs]

Meanwhile, Snow Sh!te (the patient investor) shows no signs of awaking from her alcohol induced slumber. She made the mistake of sipping from a bottle of Jack while reading over PRCs last annual report, and by the time she got to the end, the bottle was empty.....

[Beagle]

The Seven Dwarves are up there, flailing away at the unforgiving coal-face with their pick-axes. The blue ducks have been enticed into the mine too, GW's affixed little pieces of bread all over the coal-face and the ducks have had minature chisels attached to their beaks....when they go to eat the bread, the chisel hits the coal-face and fragments of coal flake off!!! GW is following behind with a dust-buster, and he hoovers up the precious coal. The rats and stoats they captured have been trained to haul out miniature coal carts, and every time GW fills up the bag on his dust-buster, he dumps it's load in the little coal cart, yells "mush" and away goes the little coal cart, pulled by a team of rats and stoats, with one of the Seven Dwarves driving. They've already got 20,000 grams out!!!!

I'm only a newbie here, but that's the funniest thing I've read on here by miles. Thankfully I have a nose that includes a well honed B.S. meter which screams out audibly, Don't Buy Bull****, so I've managed to stay out of trouble with this Dog.

My 2 cents is unless management change and they get decent operators in the mine, there's undoubtably better mining plays in OZ, oh that some of them have proven extraction methods and credible management helps too.

[Balance]

Re PRC and how the Pikers here are so anti any negative comments, have a look at the NUF and ELD threads. Good illustration of the sheer arrogance and ignorance of the punters who chose to believe the management, and took shots at anyone who dared question their stance.

http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?5406-NUF-Nufarm-Limited/page18

There were alarm bells ringing louder than Big Ben on any night there on NUF (4 profit downgrades for eg) but there are punters there who seriously thought they are smarter than the market, and the management. Man, has it cost them plenty.

I have to say I am okay with PRC at this kind of level - I think they now have the money to see through the rest of the year but if they fail to deliver in July, I dread to think what is going to happen to the sp.

If they deliver on time and hydro-mining works, I will be the first one to buy at $1.20.

[Bilo]

Roger, PRC has a very good Australian coal mine manager. If GW has done anything well it is that he has surrounded himself with good people. I laughed at the thought of GW vacuuming up coal as i have never rated his attention to detail (v large or v small he seems to miss). The Aussie mines have a little rain and flood, struggle to transport the volumes by government run rail, and when it gets to the ports they have their unions taking a toll. Underground mining of coal can be a difficult potentially dangerous business requiring considerable patience to do safely but with frequently fantastic rewards, since the chinese became net importers.

[mouse]

It would be good to get into a new Oz mine. Lots of coal there, the only minor problem is they need to build a new port plus a new rail line and it will be all go. Meanwhile Our Mine is employing good people, in NZ, and once we get going, maybe next year, or the year after, or 2015, everything will be beautiful. The ducks are loving it and the sp is moving up slowly. I am in profit AND have done my Patriotic Duty.

[JoeBlogs]

Balance, without wanting to flog a dead horse, I've rarely had a problem with the content of your opinions (you often have very insightful points) - it's just the way you deliver them that has at times rubbed me up the wrong way - although I think that's probibly your intention, and my fault for biting so easily.

Anyway, have a good weekend all, I'm looking forward to a beer! (or perhaps a bottle of Jack, now where's that annual report....)

[Balance]

Balance, without wanting to flog a dead horse, I've rarely had a problem with the content of your opinions (you often have very insightful points) - it's just the way you deliver them that has at times rubbed me up the wrong way - although I think that's probibly your intention, and my fault for biting so easily.

Anyway, have a good weekend all, I'm looking forward to a beer! (or perhaps a bottle of Jack, now where's that annual report....)

Fair enough, matey - my apologies if I rubbed you up the wrong way. Call me an impact player.

Try not to take things too seriously on this site - we all need a good laugh and debate and ribbing and teasing once in a while? It's all good.

[Beagle]

Roger, PRC has a very good Australian coal mine manager. If GW has done anything well it is that he has surrounded himself with good people. I laughed at the thought of GW vacuuming up coal as i have never rated his attention to detail (v large or v small he seems to miss). The Aussie mines have a little rain and flood, struggle to transport the volumes by government run rail, and when it gets to the ports they have their unions taking a toll. Underground mining of coal can be a difficult potentially dangerous business requiring considerable patience to do safely but with frequently fantastic rewards, since the chinese became net importers.

Thanks for your opinion Bilo but they desperatly need to start getting runs on the board, its a simple as that. If you go back to the original prospectus, they're so far behind its simply not funny anymore. Some cynics would argue the only thing PRC are good at is mining investors pockets and to date I have a fair bit of sympathy for that point of view. I'd be happy to invest if they can demonstrate a credible track record.

[Logen Ninefingers]

Meanwhile Our Mine is employing good people, in NZ, and once we get going, maybe next year, everything will be beautiful. The ducks are loving it and the sp is moving up slowly. I am in profit AND have done my Patriotic Duty.

The ducks are loving it!!!!!!! LOL - I'm glad somebody is. GW's out there talking to the ducks and feeding them bits of bread. This is supposed to be an operating coal mine, not a ducks wet dream.

[Dr_Who]

Roger, PRC has a very good Australian coal mine manager. If GW has done anything well it is that he has surrounded himself with good people. I laughed at the thought of GW vacuuming up coal as i have never rated his attention to detail (v large or v small he seems to miss). The Aussie mines have a little rain and flood, struggle to transport the volumes by government run rail, and when it gets to the ports they have their unions taking a toll. Underground mining of coal can be a difficult potentially dangerous business requiring considerable patience to do safely but with frequently fantastic rewards, since the chinese became net importers.

Thanks for the info Bilo.

It is also in the best interest for NZO to make sure that PRC succeed.

[Monkey Poms]

Let's take a guess at why Gordon came up with the idea of .88 cents on the last rights issue of shares to financial institutions.
Plan A or Plan B ?
Gordon - " Sheila, can you get me a cup of coffee and a chocolate biscuit please, I've a big decision to make today!"

To himself - "Mmmm - Plan A looks good. Big discount to the Indians, NZO, financial institutions and large investors. Bugger me! That lot represents two thirds of Pike shares issued!
I'll charge them .88 cents and slap a bit more on for the rest. Job done!"

Feeling guilty, Gordon reconsiders Plan B, which considers all shareholders are equal. ( This plan worked last time ).

Gordon - " I'm a fair man - I'll go with Plan B. Sheila, can you get me the Sharechat page on the computer for Pike. You know, the forum where all the small players discuss Pike's
progress."

Suddenly, Gordon spits his coffee out, along with half a dunked biscuit. "The Bolshie b******s! Look what that guy's saying about me! After all I've done for this company! I think we've
made good progress with the tunnel. Sheila, did you see the film about The Great Escape? It took the prisoners ages to dig Tom, Dick and Harry and those tunnels were shorter than mine! And they didn't find any coal! Right, that's it! Ring the underwriters and tell them it's Plan A!"

To himself - "I daren't take the chance of not gaining the support of those ungrateful buggers who post in that rag! There's 150 jobs on the line. Including my own!"

Well, that's my imaginary scenario. We'll never know the real events. At the end of the day, we've still got a working mine.

P.S. I wonder whether Pike's management really do read our c**p.
On that fateful day, they may have looked at a certain blog to judge the mood. I don't know whose post may have swayed his mind, but I think Balance should treat us all to a
slap-up meal at the Blackball Hilton. Mine's pie and peas with a whisky. Make that a double.

Now we have all that rubbish out of the way, you know my views on the situation. Things are not perfect. We're paying for people to learn the job. If they don't learn by their mistakes
we're all in trouble. However, I've seen the other side of the fence which surrounds the Pike operation and I like what I see. If they get the hydro right we're all in the money.
If management DO read our posts, I think I may be persona non grata, never to be allowed through the gates again!

Monkey Poms

[mouse]

[QUOTE=Monkey Poms;312119Now we have all that rubbish out of the way, you know my views on the situation. Things are not perfect. We're paying for people to learn the job. If they don't learn by their mistakes
we're all in trouble. However, I've seen the other side of the fence which surrounds the Pike operation and I like what I see. If they get the hydro right we're all in the money.
If management DO read our posts, I think I may be persona non grata, never to be allowed through the gates again!

Many thanks Monkey Poms. Summed up well. The Miners, due in part to our Kiwi Stupidity, actually I am a Pom and therefore had nothing to do with it, in closing down our mines on the West Coast have lost much of our expertise in mining. Hence we had to import Oz chaps. We are learning how to do it. It will take time to learn the job and, having learnt the job, to learn the short cuts. None of it comes cheap nor in five minutes. However in twelve months time we will know what is happening and if we are in the money. I cannot see it being any sooner, and I am an optimist. It is not the fault of Management, except for the 88cent disgrace, it is the problem of running a coal mine miles from anywhere. (Actually I was here in Kiwi land when we declared the West Coast 'Conservation Estate'). They elected a National Party chap in retaliation. I was also here in the 1987 Share Market Collapse. A by-stander. Will provide more info later.

[Monkey Poms]

Hi, Mouse.

Thanks for the insight into the West Coast mining industry and its demise. At the time of mine closures the price for steam coal was sub US$30 per tonne. Geographically New Zealand mines had little chance of competing with other exporters around the world. If the buyers at that time were not prepared to pay the price for quality NZ coal the best thing to do was leave it in the ground, and that same scenario also applies today. ( unless you want to sell it to Monkey Poms )!

I have met some knowledgeable Kiwis involved in mining. At Pike there seem to be quite a few South African miners who have been head-hunted to work for them, training the local lads. I know Pike employ some ex-fishermen and farm workers, all keen as mustard. These boys know what work is, and will learn the job very quickly. I spoke to some of them last January and know they feel as frustrated as the members of this forum. Once all the access tunnels are completed and the equipment in place those lads won't let us down.

Mouse, I tried to buy a cargo of strongman coal from a geologist, who worked for Coal Corporation at the time. He came to see us in the UK, but unfortunately he couldn't get the tonnage. We had intended to screen this coal for the household market. Unfortunately, we bought a cargo of Australian coal instead. ( Big mistake ) I remember it well. 101,000 tonnes of Bloomfield coal. The bloody thing jumped like hell when the housewife lit the fire. We nicknamed it Kangaroo coal!

Later I'll tell you why Pike's coal is more valuable, financially, to the Japanese steel mills, compared to the Aussie coking coals.

Monkey Poms

[patrick]

My stepmothers nieces boyfriends daughter has taken a job with the company starting today as a typist...some loose talk about getting a report out!

[patrick]

NOT SO GOOD:
The typist in question has been told starting date will be delayed.

[JoeBlogs]

Well my second cousin's, pool cleaner's, dog walker's grandmother had some very interesting little gems regarding PRC - I wouldn't want to speculate on here though as the info may be privelaged and commercially sensitive. Nevertheless, she has been my most reliable sorce of information thus far.

[Baddarcy]

Seems like the Govt has lost their nerve over mining Schedule 4 land which is a shame. Seems like we live in a country that simply wants to be poor.

Unfortunately the majority of voters are stupid enough to believe all the Green Party BS that the mining companies will go and strip mine the whole country.

At least it sounds like they will open up some non schedule 4, crown owned land so it might not be all bad.

[digger]

Seems like the Govt has lost their nerve over mining Schedule 4 land which is a shame. Seems like we live in a country that simply wants to be poor.

Unfortunately the majority of voters are stupid enough to believe all the Green Party BS that the mining companies will go and strip mine the whole country.

At least it sounds like they will open up some non schedule 4, crown owned land so it might not be all bad.

Well we can only do some at a time so indeed not all bad.Also i believe it was always indended to be the thin edge of the wedge and for NZO and pike we have our hands full trying to get the first mine up and running.Going forward NZO will have to ask is mining a better deal than drilling dry holes.We certainly have to have a hard look at our predrilling methology and maybe we should look at mining as at least we can know beforehand if the resource is their.

[Logen Ninefingers]

When's that PRC second shipment happening? Someone invite GW to the Blackball Pub for a few beers on the pre-text of a discussion on blue ducks, get him pissed and find out what the story is with this 2nd shipment.

[Hoop]

Seems like the Govt has lost their nerve over mining Schedule 4 land which is a shame. Seems like we live in a country that simply wants to be poor.

Unfortunately the majority of voters are stupid enough to believe all the Green Party BS that the mining companies will go and strip mine the whole country.

At least it sounds like they will open up some non schedule 4, crown owned land so it might not be all bad.

Media has a lot to answer for...I watched this ginormous ugly open cast mine displayed across my 55 inch HD Tellie while the announcer was saying that the Govt may do a u turn ..great public brainwash tactic ...Hmmm I guess the visual appeal of beautiful undistubed nativebush area above an underground support pillared mine is not what the media wanted the public to know about.
Well $2 Billion has to come from somewhere to fill the Govt coffers....I suggest the green party should donate a good part of it instead of the poor brainwashed taxpayer or the economically battered small NZ companies

[JoeBlogs]

When's that PRC second shipment happening? Someone invite GW to the Blackball Pub for a few beers on the pre-text of a discussion on blue ducks, get him pissed and find out what the story is with this 2nd shipment.

Speculation of course, but the last coal ship this month (after the one currently being loaded) is set to leave this weekend so potentially in time for the quarterly report next week? I can't wait to see what negative info they need to balance against this time...

[patrick]

Thirty days has September, April June and November
Ten days to go, trust the Directors to remember?

[Baddarcy]

By MARTA STEEMAN - BusinessDay.co.nz

The Government's backdown on mining some protected conservation land has no impact on West Coast mine Pike River Coal, it says.

Pike general manager Gordon Ward said "there is no impact on Pike".

That was because the company already had permission to mine under the Paparoa National Park.

The underground mine is located in the Paparoa Range 46km north-east of Greymouth.

The original permit to mine the Brunner seam had been gained more than 20 years ago.

PRC's rights to mine underneath the park were protected under the Paparoa National Park Management Plan, he said.

The only limiting factor was that had to be done with "low environmental impact" and in accordance with resource consents.

PRC was not yet mining under Paparoa National Park in its extraction of coal from an underground seam mine but could do in a few years.

The coal deposit there was contiguous with the one it was now mining.

Pike intends to mine one million tonnes of coal a year when it is in full production.

Ward rued the lack of rational debate on the mining issue.

All the mines in New Zealand only covered a tiny portion of the land – about 40 square kilometres, he said.

But 13 per cent of New Zealand's land was included in schedule four protection, some 35,000 square kilometres.

These days a good deal of prospecting was done by aero magnetic survey which did not disturb the land and in some remote and hilly place prospectors walked over land taking rock samples.

The Government had proposed opening up 7000 hectares of conservation land in the Coromandel, Great Barrier Island and Paparoa National Park to prospecting for valuable minerals.

But Energy Minister Gerry Brownlee said yesterday that would not go ahead in the Government's biggest backdown since taking office.

[Mr Tommy]

When's that PRC second shipment happening? Someone invite GW to the Blackball Pub for a few beers on the pre-text of a discussion on blue ducks, get him pissed and find out what the story is with this 2nd shipment.

Ive mounted a webcam at the coal port, check whats going on here ...
http://www.lpc.co.nz/RP.jasc?Page=N225P2


The coal ship (Rishikesh) currently being loaded departs today.
Theres another coal ship (Piro) due on 23 July, thats the only one due in the next few weeks according to the schedule.
So if Pike coal isnt on one of these 2 ships, they will be missing the July target.

[RRR]

Rishikesh is a shipping corp of india vessel and it is almost surely heading to india. The question is whether it is carrying solid energy coal or pike river coal. Piro is a liberian vessel and not sure where it is going from here. Last time pike shipped to gujarat(porbandar port??)-i used google but i couldnt gather any useful information.

[Ian]

Hi there, I subscribe to the Pike River Coal news update just got an emai from them today so i got all excited about the latest news the email read

$90 Million Capital Raising Completed
A new Pike River news release has been released today.
The latest Pike River news can be viewed by clicking on the following link:
Read more.

[JoeBlogs]

I think the email you got relates to the release today re Gordon Ward's comments on government initiatives, but yes, the email does refer to the previous release for some reason - maybe they're poking fun at us - "haha, we got your money, now were ignoring you". Not really the sort of news I'm interested in from PRC at the moment.

[JoeBlogs]

Rishikesh is a shipping corp of india vessel and it is almost surely heading to india. The question is whether it is carrying solid energy coal or pike river coal. Piro is a liberian vessel and not sure where it is going from here. Last time pike shipped to gujarat(porbandar port??)-i used google but i couldnt gather any useful information.

If it was Pike coal I'm sure it would have started moving by now, and we would have heard from someone who lives nearby. I can't wait to see what sort of PR spin they use to let us all down next week.

[Balance]

If it was Pike coal I'm sure it would have started moving by now, and we would have heard from someone who lives nearby. I can't wait to see what sort of PR spin they use to let us all down next week.


Probably that they prefer to ship 60,000 tonnes in December as it will be better margin etc.

[JoeBlogs]

Yeah that makes sense Balance (except for the December part of course) now that finances are sorted for the mean time, but it still begs the question re disclosure!

[Balance]

Yeah that makes sense Balance (except for the December part of course) now that finances are sorted for the mean time, but it still begs the question re disclosure!

When has PRC taken disclosure seriously? Remember the ventilation shaft collapse? This is the NZX - just as bad as the ASX! See the ASX weak-knee responses on the multiple earnings downgrades of NUF & ELD ?

[JoeBlogs]

I know, they're being watched very closely this time. Remember NZX is only the first point of contact, the SC would be a better bet for serious concerns......

[RRR]

Market depth-Sellers 2 / Buyers 1. No prize for predicting where SP is heading.

[Balance]

Market depth-Sellers 2 / Buyers 1. No prize for predicting where SP is heading.

Like everything else in life, depends on who is bigger and who knows what.

[Balance]

Like everything else in life, depends on who is bigger and who knows what.

And two sellers now become two buyers and one seller.

Well, I am siting there to buy.

LOL - come and sock it to me.

[geezy]

a change of heart balance?

[Balance]

a change of heart balance?

Still siting there.

[shasta]

Still siting there.

Short covering is it?

[Balance]

Short covering is it?

Nope. On a bad day in the next few days, some Pikers are finally going to lose all nerves and cut.

You can just feel the anxiety day by day ratcheting higher and higher about the July coal shipment.

Based upon this company's track record to date, one must hand it to the patience and fortitude of some of the Pikers however.

Almost as inspirational as those PNG natives still waiting for the 'gods' to rain food from the sky. You know, the parachute drop during WW2?

[mouse]

Nope. On a bad day in the next few days, some Pikers are finally going to lose all nerves and cut.
You know, the parachute drop during WW2?
The Cargo Cult continued well after WW2 in The Pacific. I believe that our Cargo will Go from the mine by the end of this month. Cannot understand why others do not share my faith.

[corporateraider]

I am still trying to work out the significance in PRC's announcement today that they may be able to mine elsewhere. Is it that they despair of ever getting much coal from where they are and so are contemplating spreading the net wider?
Probably Balance is best placed to provide an inciteful response to this

[float]

I must say ..... I am very impressed by the timely updates that the port of lyttelton deliveries in respect to the numerous webcam feeds on their website ;)
Very informative! People can even check how long they'll have to spend sitting in a queue... And here's me thinking south island companies couldn't operate punctual websites