PRC Pike River Coal

[STRAT]

Dry humour at it's best.The whole page is full of it. Dunno about Pike but Pike Shareholders are witty as :t_up:

[Wilkins_Micawber]

This is surprising, no announcement out yet...

I thought everyone knew by now that PRC don't update the market until (a) the announcement is overdue and (b) the target is overdue and (c) they have figured out the revised target date (read as "next date to be missed"). There does not seem to be such a thing as a "timely" announcement from PRC.

If the announcement is past due then it is reasonable to expect the worst (or a delay of one ... or two ... or three ... months)

[Logen Ninefingers]

If the announcement is past due then it is reasonable to expect the worst (or a delay of one ... or two ... or three ... months)

As far as securing working capital goes, they don't have one, two or three months available. They need to get the funds asap to keep operating. But they are 'too big to fail', at least to NZO, so NZO will have to stump up again if some other solution is not found. I doubt they have two or three months to get hydro-mining up and running...this mine has to become self-sufficient to stop the capital drain on it's shareholders. This is make or break territory.

[dsurf]

As far as securing working capital goes, they don't have one, two or three months available. They need to get the funds asap to keep operating. But they are 'too big to fail', at least to NZO, so NZO will have to stump up again if some other solution is not found. I doubt they have two or three months to get hydro-mining up and running...this mine has to become self-sufficient to stop the capital drain on it's shareholders. This is make or break territory.

the banks will lend at the usual usury rate

[mouse]

[QUOTE=dsurf;321030]the banks will lend at the usual usury rate[/QUOTE
Or NZO a little cheaper.

[manxman]

Dry humour at it's best.

For a real belly laugh, try reading the prospectus again.

Incidentally, the second ABM20 should just about get them to break even production without hydro mining.

[blockhead]

Exactly manxman, I posted a while ago when someone was wondering what to do with the rights issue cash, buy more ABM20's, those suckers work !!

[mouse]

For a real belly laugh, try reading the prospectus again.

Incidentally, the second ABM20 should just about get them to break even production without hydro mining.
The reason they have had to buy a spare ABM20 is they work. In fact, they seem to do all the work of getting coal out. Hence it is imperitive they have a spare machine in case the first breaks down. Which brings us to running out of cash. Initially maybe the wrong machines were bought for the type of mine they had to work in. The Share Price looks about right for now. Surely however Pike should tell us how much coal is mined this month, if Hydro mining has started and if the extra cash has been raised. We wait!

[Monkey Poms]

The whole page is full of it. Dunno about Pike but Pike Shareholders are witty as :t_up:

They have to be Strat, keeps them from losing their marbles.

Monkey Poms

[brucey09]

They have to be Strat, keeps them from losing their marbles.

Monkey Poms

snr monkey pom
and the shirt

[Wilkins_Micawber]

As far as securing working capital goes, they don't have one, two or three months available. They need to get the funds asap to keep operating. But they are 'too big to fail', at least to NZO, so NZO will have to stump up again if some other solution is not found. I doubt they have two or three months to get hydro-mining up and running...this mine has to become self-sufficient to stop the capital drain on it's shareholders. This is make or break territory.

So. They may not have one or two or three months available but that does not in itself automatically mean they will meet target dates, or not. Everything you have said may well be true but has nothing to do with (a) whether or not they have encountered further problems and/or delays, and (b) how quickly they will (or not) inform the market should that be the case.

The silence past the "imminent" date of the significant milestone of start-up of hydro mining, and in light of PRC's track record to date in failing to meet targets and being tardy in releasing that info to the markets, is IMHO rather ominous. At this stage, I can only hope that the delay in start-up is small or that my lack of trust (which has yet to be earned) is mis-placed.

[Baddarcy]

How long til we have confirmation that hydro-mining started last week and the bonuses were paid?

Well the last statement from PRC said "the company expects to be able to advise an outcome by the end of September" so i am guessing either today or tomorrow would be the answer. Knowing Pike probably tomorrow.

So if you think it is going to be good new, better get buying..... or vice versa.

[JoeBlogs]

While I'd normally have a similar view to Wilkins Micawber re slow information - in this case I think they'll be wanting to tie up the loose ends with funding, plus get a bit of hydro mining under the belt so they can see how it's working before making any releases. The fact that they've started hydro as we know they should have by now doesn't mean so much - it's the initial indications of how it's working that are important, and of course will take at least a week or so to get a feel for. I'm sure they're mindfull of the potential for a situation where they say "today we started hydro mining" causing a spike in the sp, only to have to say a week later "but it's not going to plan yet, here are the new production forecasts". Either way, we should know something by the weekend. I have an unusually positive feeling this time around, but I've been involved with PRC too long now to let myself trust it too much.

[Baddarcy]

I have an unusually positive feeling this time around, but I've been involved with PRC too long now to let myself trust it too much.

Well it appears the PRCOA holders agree, the sellers seem to be disappearing, not much available below 20c now.

[glennj]

The bonus target of $10000 per miner for achieving 1000 tonnes of hydro cut coal by last Friday was missed. (but narrowly according to Peter Whittal)
Maybe by this Friday? Various teething problems etc etc.
Glad I sold way back at $2.48 (Yes they did get that high!)
As previously stated I'm only back if they prove they can consistently produce big volumes of the black stuff at a low cost and in a timely manner.

[Logen Ninefingers]

The bonus target of $10000 per miner for achieving 1000 tonnes of hydro cut coal by last Friday was missed. (but narrowly according to Peter Whittal)


Where did this info come from? Did they send out an e-mail?

[JoeBlogs]

Where did you get that info from? The target was only 1000 tonnes? What a joke if they couldn't even cut that in a week.

[Logen Ninefingers]

Wow, 1000 tonnes in a week (just about)!!!! If they can sustain this, we can look forward to getting about 52,000 tonnes per year away!!!!

[glennj]

Where did you get that info from? The target was only 1000 tonnes? What a joke if they couldn't even cut that in a week.

It was in the paper yesterday. Paul McBride the reporter spoke with Peter Whitall
Roadway targets met but not hydro cutting. "the hydro itself has been going very well but there are a number of support issues"
ABM 20 miner going well!

[Logen Ninefingers]

It was in the paper yesterday. Paul McBride the reporter spoke with Peter Whitall
Roadway targets met but not hydro cutting. "the hydro itself has been going very well but there are a number of support issues"
ABM 20 miner going well!

We are getting there!!

[JoeBlogs]

The only thing of interest I can see in the annual review is that production forcasts will be downgraded. Not sure by how much yet though.


However, it has not been possible to fully offset the effects of slower than budgeted advance rates during that period.
With the introduction of hydro-mining and more consistent roadway development, the mine plan and schedule will be further reviewed.

No real market reaction though.

[Baddarcy]

The only thing of interest I can see in the annual review is that production forcasts will be downgraded. Not sure by how much yet though.

No real market reaction though.

They hinted as much in the announcement on the 20th. They said something about afew weeks away, so i assumed that it will come out with the next quarterly report due at the end of October.

[dsurf]

Well the good news is that the amount of time the targets are being missed by is consistently reducing with each statement. So glad they got the beast going which is a cashflow lifesaver until full hydro rates achieved in Feb 2011

[Baddarcy]

Pike River optimistic about Paparoa seam
NZPA | Wednesday September 29, 2010 - 01:00pm
Pike River Coal Ltd said it will start in-seam exploration drilling of the Paparoa seam, which sits 200 metres below the Brunner seam it is mining, in the first half of next year.

The company sees considerable potential in this deeper seam, but exploration of it has been delayed by operational priorities at the mine on the West Coast.

In January 2009 an exploratory test drill hole into the Paparoa seam on the eastern side of the coal deposit found three potentially mineable seams of low sulphur hard coking coal. These seams totalled nine metres in thickness. The coal, once washed, had exceptionally high fluidity, as well as strong swelling numbers, low ash and low sulphur content.

In its annual report the company said two continuous miners purchased from mining equipment supplier Waratah Engineering had not operated to expectations and had required ongoing modifications.

They underwent track replacements and software upgrades, which did improve performance, but the machines were still operating well behind the required levels. The electric drives, which run the traction systems, will be replaced with hydraulic drives and the cutting head booms will be redesigned. This work will take two to three months for each machine.

Because of these problems Pike River leased one reconditioned ABM20 continuous mining machine for 12 months at the cost of $4 million, which began operating in August, and purchased a second ABM20 at the cost of $5 million, which will arrive in January.

The ABM20 is a single pass mining machine that can cut and bolt at the same time, reducing the production cycle when compared to the existing double pass machines.

[peat]

although I am sick of a lot of the pussy assed whinging in this thread I do see the funny side of making media statements about future mines at this stage

[Dr_Who]

although I am sick of a lot of the pussy assed whinging in this thread I do see the funny side of making media statements about future mines at this stage

The down rampers are usually the ones with a short position and got caught with their pants down.... lol.

The graph for PRC is looking good, may it continue.

[Logen Ninefingers]

although I am sick of.....

Whinging again aye.

[Logen Ninefingers]

maybe it continue.

Maybe it continue? Who know.

[Monkey Poms]

Where did you get that info from? The target was only 1000 tonnes? What a joke if they couldn't even cut that in a week.

I didn't expect hydro to start without any glitches. Unfortunately it doesn't work like that. There may be half a dozen weak points in the system.
( I don't think they will be major ones ). The Pike fitters will identify the weakest link, fix it then move on to the next, and and so on,
until the target is achieved.

DON'T PANIC!

Monkey Poms

[Monkey Poms]

although I am sick of a lot of the pussy assed whinging in this thread I do see the funny side of making media statements about future mines at this stage

If there's one good thing about that statement regarding the future mining of the Paparoa seam, it's that it's valuable coking coal.
If it was steam coal it wouldn't be worth mining at today's coal price.

Monkey Poms

[patrick]

What a distraction technique...Paparoa...for us holders over 50 its too far off.
Imagine the delays; if its worth something flog it off and let's see if another Company can meet deadlines.
How many days in September?

[mouse]

[QUOTE=Monkey Poms;321245]
DON'T PANIC!

KEEP CALM AND CARRY ON.

(Seen on a gate near my Christchurch home which has not been too badly affected by the 7.1 earthquake)
I am sure Pike will sort out the problems. They only need a bit more time and more money.
Have a good day, be glad you are not Father Christmas in Christchurch with all the chimneys down.

[Baddarcy]

From stuff.co.nz, not great news, but not the worst news, but at least we now know they have started hydro :-)

Hydro-Mining Still Ramping up

Pike River Coal remains in a test commissioning phase for its hydro-mining plans to slice coal from its West Coast mine after power outages due to lightning strikes.

Chairman John Dow said Pike River had several outages from lightning strikes over the weekend and this week, but that power to the mine had been restored.

Hydro-mining – using water pumped at high pressure from a water cannon to blast off premium hard coking coal for export markets – was still in a ramp-up phase started last week.

The electricity outages had been an interruption.

"This is not a process just like turning it on and it goes perfect from day one. There are always aspects of integration that the commissioning of any process requires."

A successful commissioning would require several days of sustained production.

Dow did not want to give further comment about the commissioning phase.

Pike River's export prices are benchmarked against international prices. For the quarter to December 31 it had been set against Goonyella's (Queensland production) price which settled at US$205 (NZ$277) a tonne.

"Despite a recent softening in demand for hard coking coal into China, industry commentators have observed that there is still a strong demand and tight supply of premium quality hard coking coal and the outlook for Pike's coal continues to be encouraging," Dow said.

Pike River intended expanding and intensifying its programme of in-seam drilling of the Brunner seam to cover 11 kilometres in the June 2011 year at a budgeted cost of $7 million.

The hole-drilling tool allows the company to get accurate data on geological and coal seam depth and conditions hundreds of metres ahead of each working coal face.

In the first half of 2011, PRC was also likely to begin in-seam exploratory drilling into the Paparoa seam, about 200 metres below the Brunner seam.

Dow said it was too early to comment about the potential development of the Paparoa seam.

"It's high quality hard coking coal, so it's the same sort of product we're getting out of the Brunner seam – that means there's value there for Pike shareholders ...

"There needs to be a lot more drilling done to establish how widespread it is, how thick it is and firm up the preliminary estimations."

The miner's progress on the Brunner seam had been limited by problems with equipment. The existing Waratah continuous miners needed further work including replacing electric drives with hydraulic drives and underground modifications.

This work would take two to three months and the first machine would be removed in the next week or two.

Ad Feedback Pike River yesterday released its annual report disclosing that it had paid its top employee – chief executive Gordon Ward – between $490,00 and $500,000. Asked if Ward would get a special remuneration package given his long service, Dow said he could not comment.

Ward finishes work at Pike River on Friday after 14 years of service.

[JoeBlogs]

Pike River Coal remains in a test commissioning phase for its hydro-mining plans to slice coal from its West Coast mine after power outages due to lightning strikes.


There's been some pretty crap weather alright. I'm not sure how much of this is being talked up, but it's certainly a positive as far as explanations go.

Remember the more recent estimate before the latest push back was commissioning of the hydro-mining system in July, with first extraction some time in the July-Sep quarter - so it must still be pretty grey as to how long the commissioning process will take.

Meanwhile, I guess they're still cutting away at other roadways so there should be a bit of coal coming out from that.


I didn't expect hydro to start without any glitches. Unfortunately it doesn't work like that. There may be half a dozen weak points in the system.
( I don't think they will be major ones ). The Pike fitters will identify the weakest link, fix it then move on to the next, and and so on,
until the target is achieved.

DON'T PANIC!

Yes I understand that mate, I guess my point of frustration is that this knowledge should be taken into account when setting targets - it's not good for morale if budget targets are constantly missed - better to set more realistic ones. Anyway, it's a moot point - and no, I'm not panicing, still feeling quietly confident about the next few months :-)

[fabs]

Maybe they are spending time and money on Paparoa, preparing to launch another Mining company to raise much needed funds.
Prospectus in the mail soon chaps.
fabs

[Baddarcy]

Maybe they are spending time and money on Paparoa, preparing to launch another Mining company to raise much needed funds.
Prospectus in the mail soon chaps.
fabs

Won't need to, thats what PRCOA is for.

[glennj]

I think that most people can see that the Paparoa announcement timing is just a warm fuzzy to divert attention from yet another missed target and further delays.
OK so that's the nature of mining but their forecasting has been crap. I wouldn't be surprised if the forecasting improves now that Ward is almost gone. Some time back I heard pub talk from PRC staff that they were unhappy with the overly optimistic line he was pushing and that they were being told to follow.

Things may well come right but I'll stay out until they prove themselves.

[dsurf]

There is a lot of whinging on this thread because there is a lot to whinge about.

Over a year ago GW released the following

PRC
25/08/2009
FORECAST

REL: 0831 HRS Pike River Coal Limited

FORECAST: PRC: Pike River Coal Re-schedules Export Timing

PIKE RIVER COAL RE-SCHEDULES EXPORT TIMING

Pike River Coal says that production of premium hard coking coal from its new
mine has been running at lower rates than envisaged in the schedule issued to
the stock exchanges on 21 July 2009, due mainly to early geological
complexity and machinery difficulties resulting in slower roadway development
driveage.
When the last market update was given in July, Pike River expected to
have all three coal cutting machines operating during August. Due to
intermittent commissioning problems with the machines this has not occurred.

The three new machines have now largely been repaired and modified, with the
remaining outstanding modification being replacement of tracks on the two
continuous miners by the German manufacturer at their cost. Both 60 tonne
machines are currently operational, but repairs including track work, has
resulted in considerable production down-time during the past month.

Other main factors limiting production over the past month have been
unavailability of some underground coal/rock haulage machines due to
breakdowns,
Countermeasures taken by the company include more intensive maintenance,
intensified operator training, and changes to underground work practices
following internal and third party review. Chief Executive Gordon Ward said
"The mine is working 2 shifts 24 hours per day, 7 days a week in order to
meet our production targets, and all Pike River's management and staff are
focussed and committed to this outcome".
With all three coal cutting machines expected to be operating in September
and having made a number of modifications to mining practices, improvements
in advance rates will be achieved.

13 months later.......


The miner's progress on the Brunner seam had been limited by problems with equipment. The existing Waratah continuous miners needed further work including replacing electric drives with hydraulic drives and underground modifications.

This work would take two to three months and the first machine would be removed in the next week or two.

Ad Feedback Pike River yesterday released its annual report disclosing that it had paid its top employee – chief executive Gordon Ward – between $490,00 and $500,000. Asked if Ward would get a special remuneration package given his long service, Dow said he could not comment.

So 500k & the machines still don't work!!!!!

[Logen Ninefingers]

There is a lot of whinging on this thread because there is a lot to whinge about.

Over a year ago GW released the following

PRC
25/08/2009
FORECAST

REL: 0831 HRS Pike River Coal Limited

FORECAST: PRC: Pike River Coal Re-schedules Export Timing

PIKE RIVER COAL RE-SCHEDULES EXPORT TIMING

Pike River Coal says that production of premium hard coking coal from its new
mine has been running at lower rates than envisaged in the schedule issued to
the stock exchanges on 21 July 2009, due mainly to early geological
complexity and machinery difficulties resulting in slower roadway development
driveage.
When the last market update was given in July, Pike River expected to
have all three coal cutting machines operating during August. Due to
intermittent commissioning problems with the machines this has not occurred.

The three new machines have now largely been repaired and modified, with the
remaining outstanding modification being replacement of tracks on the two
continuous miners by the German manufacturer at their cost. Both 60 tonne
machines are currently operational, but repairs including track work, has
resulted in considerable production down-time during the past month.

Other main factors limiting production over the past month have been
unavailability of some underground coal/rock haulage machines due to
breakdowns,
Countermeasures taken by the company include more intensive maintenance,
intensified operator training, and changes to underground work practices
following internal and third party review. Chief Executive Gordon Ward said
"The mine is working 2 shifts 24 hours per day, 7 days a week in order to
meet our production targets, and all Pike River's management and staff are
focussed and committed to this outcome".
With all three coal cutting machines expected to be operating in September
and having made a number of modifications to mining practices, improvements
in advance rates will be achieved.

13 months later.......


The miner's progress on the Brunner seam had been limited by problems with equipment. The existing Waratah continuous miners needed further work including replacing electric drives with hydraulic drives and underground modifications.

This work would take two to three months and the first machine would be removed in the next week or two.

Ad Feedback Pike River yesterday released its annual report disclosing that it had paid its top employee – chief executive Gordon Ward – between $490,00 and $500,000. Asked if Ward would get a special remuneration package given his long service, Dow said he could not comment.

So 500k & the machines still don't work!!!!!

I agree with you 100%.....that statement from August 2009 states 'the three new machines have now largely been repaired and modified'.......so obviously the repairs and modifications were not sufficient. Rather than 'largely' repairing and modifying in they should have 'fully' repaired and modified. This is total incompetence and shows a total disregard for the over-riding imperative that should be at work here: to expedite the production of coal in a thorough and sustainable manner in order to provide a return on the investment of shareholders (owners). Instead we get half-assed and incompetent actions which result in a continuous cash-burn of the funds shareholders have provided and have had to continue to provide. I'd say this starts at the top: Ward continuously pushing and pushing to acheive highly over-ambitious targets....corners cut to achieve these targets had the opposite effect: massive delays - in-sufficient drilling resulted in the graben not being located, ventilation shaft not up to the standard required to prevent it's collapse, machines getting patched up with band aids and thrown back into the mine only to conk out again.

[Balance]

Very forgiving lot, Pikers.

Question - do they behave in their personal lives as forgiving to everyone as they are with all the PRC's broken promises, failed commitments, delays, problems and massive costs over-runs?

I hope they do - the world is a better place with more people like them.

In all sincerity.

[Balance]

I agree with you 100%.....that statement from August 2009 states 'the three new machines have now largely been repaired and modified'.......so obviously the repairs and modifications were not sufficient. Rather than 'largely' repairing and modifying in they should have 'fully' repaired and modified. This is total incompetence and shows a total disregard for the over-riding imperative that should be at work here: to expedite the production of coal in a thorough and sustainable manner in order to provide a return on the investment of shareholders (owners). Instead we get half-assed and incompetent actions which result in a continuous cash-burn of the funds shareholders have provided and have had to continue to provide. I'd say this starts at the top: Ward continuously pushing and pushing to acheive highly over-ambitious targets....corners cut to achieve these targets had the opposite effect: massive delays - in-sufficient drilling resulted in the graben not being located, ventilation shaft not up to the standard required to prevent it's collapse, machines getting patched up with band aids and thrown back into the mine only to conk out again.

Careful - you will be taken in front of the Securities Commission soon and accused of down-ramping.

How dare you question PRC's competence and how PRC chooses to pay its executives - upsetting the unquestioning and very forgiving Pikers?

[sheepy]

Those Warratahs must be heaps of crap, did they not do there research? Warratah should have some sort of a warranty or back up. Flick them off and buy another brand. They sound like lemons. They should leave the modifications to the warratah experts. If it was supposed to have hydrolic tracks it should have come with them. I agree with you logen, stupid decisions being made by people who are paid a lot of money to know stuff all. Hopefully the new ceo shakes things up and is a bit more realistic in targets and timeframes.

[Mr Tommy]

I guess the hydro mining target was missed, so the 180 staff miss their $10,000 bonus.
A saving of $1.8 million, but probably 180 grumpy staff.

[Logen Ninefingers]

Careful - you will be taken in front of the Securities Commission soon and accused of down-ramping.

How dare you question PRC's competence and how PRC chooses to pay its executives - upsetting the unquestioning and very forgiving Pikers?

I have nothing to gain by down-ramping. I am locked in and the die is cast. Because Pike is 'too big to fail' it will continue to draw funds, ultimately from NZO. They are inextricably linked as companies. Ultimately Pike will succeed, despite them doing everything they can to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. I believe the top leadership has been incredibly incompetent, but in the big corporates they largely overcome incompetence through sheer size, the weight of the dollars they can wield, plenty of hard work from the people in the lower echelons, good luck, and the cyclical nature of economies. This does not stop the top leadership at PRC or any big corporate from taking the lions share of the credit in the good times, and certainly claiming for themselves big salaries and hefty bonuses that go with corporates posting large profits. It is an old boys club at the top, and they are always very careful not to appoint blame and to ensure that the out-going scape-goat executive for their collective incompetence departs with a healthy golden parachute.

[digger]

Pike get working facility from NZO. New release. As yet do not know details.

[BigBob]

Pike get working facility from NZO. New release. As yet do not know details.



GENERAL: NZO: Funding Support for Pike River Coal

NZO
30/09/2010 12:43
GENERAL

REL: 1243 HRS New Zealand Oil and Gas Limited

GENERAL: NZO: Funding Support for Pike River Coal

New Zealand Oil & Gas Ltd (NZOG) has agreed to provide a short-term working
capital facility to Pike River Coal Ltd of up to NZ$25 million.

The new facility will sustain the development of the underground mine and the
acquisition of additional mining equipment, while protecting NZOG's
significant investment in Pike River and providing a healthy return on
investment for NZOG shareholders.

The short-term facility has an interest rate of 13%, establishment and
monitoring fees totaling $600,000 and is repayable in full on 15 December
2010.

Pike River will also ask its shareholders to approve a one year extension to
NZOG's coal option. This option was put in place in April 2010 when NZOG
provided a replacement convertible bond facility for US$28.9 million. The
extension, if granted, will allow NZOG at any time up until March 2013 to
enter into an offtake agreement to purchase Pike coking coal at market prices
to be negotiated annually. The maximum volumes which may be purchased under
the offtake agreement would be the currently uncontracted coal quantities for
the first three years and up to 30% of annual coal production for the
remaining life of mine.

NZOG Chief Executive David Salisbury says the new arrangements are in the
best interests of both companies.

"Pike River is now producing its highly valued coking coal and the first two
shipments have been exported. But with the underground mine roadways still
being developed and hydro-mining equipment in the commissioning phase, Pike
River currently requires further working capital.

"Pike River has in NZOG a supportive investor providing the short-term
funding it needs, allowing Pike River to focus on ramping up to full
production. The new facility is value creating for NZOG and is a continuation
of our strategy of managing this investment in the interests of our
shareholders."

NZOG is the largest shareholder in Pike River Coal Ltd, with 29.4% of the
issued capital.
End CA:00200458 For:NZO Type:GENERAL Time:2010-09-30 12:43:39

[JoeBlogs]

Mr Whittall says that commissioning of the hydro-mining equipment commenced on 20 September 2010 and that all equipment is installed and functioning well. A further update will be provided to investors once commissioning is completed.

Reasonably positive I guess

[Baddarcy]

Reasonably positive I guess

Yes agreed, the money supply is now secured but the best part for me was the last paragraph from the Pike release. Especially the bit about providing further updates, i'm strating to like Pete already!!

"Mr Whittall says that commissioning of the hydro-mining equipment commenced
on 20 September 2010 and that all equipment is installed and functioning
well. A further update will be provided to investors once commissioning is
completed."

[Mr Tommy]

Borrowing $25m, repaying it on 15 Dec, thats only 2.5 months
You would have to assume they are VERY confident of getting a few shipments away in the next 2 months.
If 20,000t was worth $6m, they need to ship a fair bit.

[Pete]

If they are expecting it to be "..repayable in full on 15 December 2010.." they must be expecting to sell at least $25M worth of coal in the next 2 1/2 months....

[Mr Tommy]

Ahhh, I just read the PIke release. They wont be repaying it with coal sales.

"Pike River has also begun work on securing a medium-term loan facility to
supplant the abovementioned arrangement with NZOG and to carry the company
through the remainder of the ramp-up of operations to steady-state coal
production levels.

[digger]

Ahhh, I just read the PIke release. They wont be repaying it with coal sales.

"Pike River has also begun work on securing a medium-term loan facility to
supplant the abovementioned arrangement with NZOG and to carry the company
through the remainder of the ramp-up of operations to steady-state coal
production levels.
Yes Mr Tommy i like your improved reading skills. The best bit is the option extension.
Pike River will also ask its shareholders to approve a one year extension to
NZOG's coal option. This option was put in place
Pike River will also ask its shareholders to approve a one year extension to
NZOG's coal option. End quote

[blockhead]

Wish I had a rich aunty like Pike has

[Pete]

Wish I had a rich aunty like Pike has

Would a rich aunty charge 13% + 600k establishment fees??

[blockhead]

Yerrp cause if she wasn't a mean tight old b... she wouldnt have got rich in the first place

[shasta]

Pike could have turned the NZO offer down!

And where else would they get $25m from , Bridgecorp, South Canterbury Finance?

[Mr Tommy]

Pike could have turned the NZO offer down!

Good one, thanks. Ive just submitted it to Tui.

[tony64peter]

If the option execution date is extended is the purchace price likely to remain the same? Would it apply only to NZO or all option holders?

[JoeBlogs]

They're talking about the coal purchase option - nothing to do with the call options on shares (PRCOA).

[tony64peter]

Thanks..............
They're talking about the coal purchase option - nothing to do with the call options on shares (PRCOA).

[Pete]

From NBR "The company expects to dispatch at least one more shipment by December"

http://www.nbr.co.nz/article/nzog-steps-pike-river-130816

[Logen Ninefingers]

From NBR "The company expects to dispatch at least one more shipment by December"

http://www.nbr.co.nz/article/nzog-steps-pike-river-130816

It better be a big one....

[mouse]

I queried Peter Whittall on the $10,000 bonus payment. The following is his reply, no deletions of text made.

Hello XXX
The bonus is a milestone payment not an ongoing payment.
It will be paid when we have achieved a roadway development milestone (which we have now achieved) and when the first 1000 tonnes has been mined by hydro.
Everyone expected that to be last week which would have given the whole workforce, including myself, a $10,000 bonus. By missing friday deadline, the maximum payment has now reduced to $7,500 if we get the tonnes by this friday. If not it reduces again to only $5,000.
These are only commissioning tonnages and will ramp up from there.
The system can produce more than 3000 tonnes per day.
Hope this clarifies
Peter

I think it refers to 1,000 tonnes production per day. Once that is achieved then we may, probably will, see further target payments made of say another $10,000 with 2,000 tonnes per day reached for example. Things do look OK, and my investment in Pike, 10,000 shares for around $7,000 looks better by the day. It is a mine. A black hole which requires money in before money out. Hopefully cash out in 2011 year.

[tony64peter]

Mr Mouse not only are you very witty but very informative Thanks

[Logen Ninefingers]

Mouse is triple X.

[Monkey Poms]

After waiting years for the big day, to turn the tap on for hydro mining, we get thunder and lightning,
rain and electricity blackouts. The lights go out and a man with a urinary problem has more water
pressure than Pike's water-blaster.
You couldn't make this up.
We're cursed.

Monkey Poms

[percy]

I am sure Mouse could make it all work.

[Monkey Poms]

I am sure Mouse could make it all work.

Percy, Mouse could send his lucky charm to the Pike mine.
A little piece of luck to go our way for once would be appreciated.

Monkey Poms.

[blockhead]

We got off light Monkey P, a large quaking occurence would have created problems which may not have been recoverable.

The powers back on and the boys are into it !

[corporateraider]

The bonus payment of 10k seems wildly disproportionate to the results achieved. The last shipment was 6mill and yet we seem to be talking of a potential payment around 1.75mill. (of money they didn't have!) It smacks to me of desperation and a project in disarray.

And a further payment of potentially another 10k? For achieving what the equipment was designed to do easily any way!

I would be interested to hear how the worfforcr are remunerated compared to Solid Energy.

Like Balance I am afraid that I am no longer sharing the faith.

Disclosure: Hanging in there, just!

[Monkey Poms]

I queried Peter Whittall on the $10,000 bonus payment. The following is his reply, no deletions of text made.

Hello XXX
The bonus is a milestone payment not an ongoing payment.
It will be paid when we have achieved a roadway development milestone (which we have now achieved) and when the first 1000 tonnes has been mined by hydro.
Everyone expected that to be last week which would have given the whole workforce, including myself, a $10,000 bonus. By missing friday deadline, the maximum payment has now reduced to $7,500 if we get the tonnes by this friday. If not it reduces again to only $5,000.
These are only commissioning tonnages and will ramp up from there.
The system can produce more than 3000 tonnes per day.
Hope this clarifies
Peter

I think it refers to 1,000 tonnes production per day. Once that is achieved then we may, probably will, see further target payments made of say another $10,000 with 2,000 tonnes per day reached for example. Things do look OK, and my investment in Pike, 10,000 shares for around $7,000 looks better by the day. It is a mine. A black hole which requires money in before money out. Hopefully cash out in 2011 year.

Mouse I would go along with a bonus target payment, when your estimate of 650,000 mt of coal produced is reached.
The target from 1000 t.p.d to 2000 t.p.d ( too easy to achieve ) on a one off basis.
Good reply to your enquiry from Peter Whittall.
Well done Mouse.

Monkey Poms.

[blockhead]

I hear PW on National Radio this morning saying "it is likely Pike may need more than the $25m between now and when they get to full production in 12 months time"

[bung5]

I hear PW on National Radio this morning saying "it is likely Pike may need more than the $25m between now and when they get to full production in 12 months time"

Well if he can get the shareprice above 1.25 that will sort that problem out.

[Mr Tommy]

I hear PW on National Radio this morning saying "it is likely Pike may need more than the $25m between now and when they get to full production in 12 months time"

Hi Blockhead
someone on NZO page has quoted the same story, but saying they wont use the 25m ...

Found the article ...
Mr Whittall was unsure how much of the facility would be needed.
“We, as a company, pitched for $25m to have some movement in the shipment timing, more than we think will actually happen.”

http://www.nbr.co.nz/article/nzog-steps-pike-river-130816

[manxman]

I hear PW on National Radio this morning saying "it is likely Pike may need more than the $25m between now and when they get to full production in 12 months time"

If they are going to work up to full shipments of 65,000 tonnes, and they are handling different grades of coal for different customers, its easy to see that they may have 100,000 tonnes tied up in big black heaps at the coal prep plant and at Ikamatua. Once they have built up the stockpile then the cash flow should turn positive (or we're doomed).

[mouse]

:)For those not familiar with the Midland Line, that is the rail line over which we send our coal from Ikamatua to Lyttelton, I will try to detail it. The line runs from Lyttelton to Springfield over our Canterbury Plains. They are FLAT. Wonderful railway territory. You just point the finger and say, 'railway line there please', and its done. There are no hills or any problem. That is where our Greendale earthquake is. Actually, it is not greendale, it is Rolleston.:( But as people live at Rolleston so we put down Greendale hoping the cows who live at Greendale cannot read. And fool the people of Rolleston into believing they are not having earthquakes.:D
;)The point of this is that any earthquake here on the plains will not affect the export of coal through Lyttelton. Further, the Lyttelton Port seems to be working OK., but they may of course try to make an earthquake claim to upgrade facilities from the insurance payout.:ohmy:

[mouse]

Mouse I would go along with a bonus target payment, when your estimate of 650,000 mt of coal produced is reached.
The target from 1000 t.p.d to 2000 t.p.d ( too easy to achieve ) on a one off basis.
Good reply to your enquiry from Peter Whittall.
Well done Mouse.

Monkey Poms.
I do not think it is 'hit this for one day and collect $10,000'. I think, but am not totally sure, that it is a target to be hit and maintained. Maybe for a couple of weeks. We could ask about this at the AGM on 15 November at the mine. Everyone needs a few incentives to do more than average. The bonus payment seems to be very well targeted. Going down!!!! It will concentrate the mind. The New Car is no longer on the shopping list, not enough cash. Hope they collect their bonus this week. If we can get 2,000 tonnes a day out then with 5 day workings we get say 500,000 tonnes per year. Worth getting, plus at that level I am sure we are covering all costs.

[Pete]

Also this on Wednesday..

SOLID ENERGY FORCE MAJEURE LIFTED
The Force Majeure notice served to Solid Energy by Lyttelton Port of
Christchurch on 08 September has now been lifted.

[Logen Ninefingers]

I do not think it is 'hit this for one day and collect $10,000'. I think, but am not totally sure, that it is a target to be hit and maintained. Maybe for a couple of weeks. We could ask about this at the AGM on 15 November at the mine. Everyone needs a few incentives to do more than average. The bonus payment seems to be very well targeted. Going down!!!! It will concentrate the mind. The New Car is no longer on the shopping list, not enough cash. Hope they collect their bonus this week. If we can get 2,000 tonnes a day out then with 5 day workings we get say 500,000 tonnes per year. Worth getting, plus at that level I am sure we are covering all costs.

My understanding is that they hit the target and they get the bonus. Your post is the first mention of the target being hit and maintained for a couple of weeks.

I totally bemused by $10,000 per worked being paid for such a small acheivement....maybe it should have been paid as a bonus by the end of this year based on a certain tonnage being mined. This would have concentrated minds and given the workforce a target to aim for week by week. Once you've received $10,000 right at the start of small scale hydro-mining, as a worker do you then look for the next bonus payment, and grumble if you don't get one? Does your motivation drop because you've got your $10,000 bonus and theres no incentive in sight going forward?

In your post you say "if we can get 2,000 tonnes a day out then with 5 day workings we can get 500,000 tonnes per year. Worth getting, plus at that level I am sure we are covering all costs".
500,000 tonnes a year is half what was stated. The target was 1 million tonnes a year. Likewise, the aim is not to 'cover all costs', it is to run a highly profitable mine.

[JoeBlogs]

I do not think it is 'hit this for one day and collect $10,000'. I think, but am not totally sure, that it is a target to be hit and maintained. Maybe for a couple of weeks. We could ask about this at the AGM on 15 November at the mine. Everyone needs a few incentives to do more than average. The bonus payment seems to be very well targeted. Going down!!!! It will concentrate the mind. The New Car is no longer on the shopping list, not enough cash. Hope they collect their bonus this week. If we can get 2,000 tonnes a day out then with 5 day workings we get say 500,000 tonnes per year. Worth getting, plus at that level I am sure we are covering all costs.

The way I read it, it's just the first 1000 tonnes in aggregate, not 1000 tonnes per day - this seems a bit silly to me

[Baddarcy]

The way I read it, it's just the first 1000 tonnes in aggregate, not 1000 tonnes per day - this seems a bit silly to me

I suspect that they will announce that the "commissioning" is complete once they hit the 1000 tonnes and that is why it is so important to them.

[Logen Ninefingers]

SP dropping...

[JoeBlogs]

Is that actually the target though, or is it just poorly written? Surely the way mouse puts it at a rate of 1000 tonnes per day vs just 1000 tonnes total makes more sense? You could chip away 1000 tonnes with a chissel given enough time.

[Baddarcy]

SP dropping...

Low volume thou, just a couple of sellers chasing a sale. I only get worried when the SP starts dropping on big volumes.

[Logen Ninefingers]

Low volume thou, just a couple of sellers chasing a sale. I only get worried when the SP starts dropping on big volumes.

Yeah, you'd have to bet that the SP will spike again once they announce commissioning is completed and hydro mining is under-way. You'd have to be a drop nuts to sell right now. I see it's back up to $1.11 now.

[patrick]

The 1000 tonnes for the bonus must surely be daily production,(PW says system capable of 3000 per day) and if so the confirmation that the bonus has been earned will ,in my view, be very good news.
Things can only improve...just need date for Option excersise extended; after all most Option holders took them up on the assurance that Hydro Mining would be weel underway by now.

[Baddarcy]

You'd have to be a drop nuts to sell right now. I see it's back up to $1.11 now.

Couldn't have said it better myself :-)

Better numbers on the buy side now too:
Buyers Buy Quantity Prices
2 90,346 $1.100
3 69,080 $1.090
3 62,700 $1.080

[Logen Ninefingers]

Sellers under $1.13 drying up.

[mouse]

My understanding is that they hit the target and they get the bonus. Your post is the first mention of the target being hit and maintained for a couple of weeks.

In your post you say "if we can get 2,000 tonnes a day out then with 5 day workings we can get 500,000 tonnes per year. Worth getting, plus at that level I am sure we are covering all costs".
500,000 tonnes a year is half what was stated. The target was 1 million tonnes a year. Likewise, the aim is not to 'cover all costs', it is to run a highly profitable mine.
The first aim is to cover all costs. I do not know how much coal is needed to do that. It must change with the international price of coal and our exchange rate. So we have to make a guess. The first target was to export some coal. We have done that twice, with 40,000 tonnes exported now. The next target is to get hydro mining on track and we are nearly there. The next target, June 2010 Quarterly Report, is to export 40,000 tonnes per month. Which approximates to 500,000 tonnes per year. Hopefully we will get quite close to that. Again, questions please at the AGM.
I have read a new target of 650,000 tonnes per year production but cannot trace where Pike made that estimate. We have got the $6 million in the bank so that is now OK. Lessons will have been learnt from that though. I am surprised that people are losing their nerve now since we are very close to first breaking even and then making a profit.
Note lightening storms. The West Coast is famous for them. I remember going over to Hari Hari with an electronic fire alarm system always going off. I took it out, put in a relay system and we never had trouble again. We have to put up with electric storms, there is no alternative as Lange used to say.
The West Coast chaps are pretty used to getting the electric power back on after a storm. Plus the power wires follow the road to the mine. Hence access is good for linesmen to do the repairs.

[Monkey Poms]

SP dropping...

Gordon leaves today. Pike may be gradually off-loading a couple of million partly paid shares issued at one cent per share.
Funds for the sale will go to Pike.
I will take a guess at the strike price $1.10 - $1-20 - $1.40. He won't make very much for his efforts, he will have departed
prior to the commissioning of hydro mining.

Monkey Poms.

[Robomo]

Hi all

I'm intending to be at the AGM on the 15th November. I've looked at costs from Christchurch there and back on the day and if there is anyone willing to share costs it would make it a reasonably affordable meeting. I'll be flying down from Auckland (only $144 return at present on Air NZ)

I want to attend the AGM rather than the investor briefing in Auckland as I would like the opportunity to ask questions of all directors rather than whoever is going to be giving the briefings. I have a substantial sum invested in PRC shares and I'm frustrated at the overly optimistic projections published in the past and general lack of information.

Proposed plan is...

Fly Cessna (Canterbury Aviation) Christchurch airport - Greymouth about 10 am
Rental Car (Hertz Falcon) to Atarau Carpark as instructed by Pike
Arrive back at Greymouth airport about 4 pm - 5 pm
Fly back to Christchurch, arrive there by 6 pm


Cost for 5 (share plane hire, car, petrol) $695 each inclusive of 15% gst. Beer at Blackball pub - own cost. For fewer participants the cost will be proportionately more. I've only made a single plane / car inquiry so more quotes may result in a lower price. I'm happy to coordinate the day unless anyone else has a better idea. I've looked at flying into Westport but car travel is 2 hours and it would be quite tight given the time of the Air NZ Westport flights from Wellington. CHC - Hokitika is also a possibility on Air NZ but would save only about $50 per person on fares today and travel time is significantly increased as well.

If anyone is interested please reply to this post and give me a contact email address or phone number, which can be done via private message on this site (see top left of page).

[JoeBlogs]

Hi Robomo

Sounds like a good scheme, but you'd want to be careful relying on a VFR flight across to Greymouth - 50/50 as to whether you could get across. You planning on flying yourslef or charter?

[Robomo]

Hi Robomo

Sounds like a good scheme, but you'd want to be careful relying on a VFR flight across to Greymouth - 50/50 as to whether you could get across. You planning on flying yourslef or charter?
Hi JB

Definitely charter, I'm a good passenger but that's as far as my flying ability goes!
Canterbury Aviation operate mountain flights and spend all their time around the Southern Alps with scenic, mountain, hunting and charter work. Unfortunately they advise that there are no closer airstrips to Pike River than Greymouth. Have a look at their website Canterburyaviation.co.nz.
They also said they can include a flyover of the Pike mine site at no extra cost to see if we can shoo away those pesky stoats.

Robomo

[mouse]

Hi JB

Definitely charter, I'm a good passenger but that's as far as my flying ability goes!
Canterbury Aviation operate mountain flights and spend all their time around the Southern Alps with scenic, mountain, hunting and charter work. Unfortunately they advise that there are no closer airstrips to Pike River than Greymouth. Have a look at their website Canterburyaviation.co.nz.
They also said they can include a flyover of the Pike mine site at no extra cost to see if we can shoo away those pesky stoats.

Robomo
From memory it takes at least an hour to drive from Greymouth town to the mine. Do not know where the airport is, sorry, but the road could be poor. It would be much better to do the job by arriving Sunday, meeting on Monday and then home Tuesday. Beware, since you need to use a bus from the Pike car park up to the mine offices. About 10kms. You can expect to get the first bus back at 3.00pm?, then your car back to the plane. You could pray for good weather over the Alps also since if it is poor maybe the plane cannot fly. You could check with Peter about flying since he regularly flies Wellington to Pike Mine.

[JoeBlogs]

Hi JB

Definitely charter, I'm a good passenger but that's as far as my flying ability goes!
Canterbury Aviation operate mountain flights and spend all their time around the Southern Alps with scenic, mountain, hunting and charter work. Unfortunately they advise that there are no closer airstrips to Pike River than Greymouth. Have a look at their website Canterburyaviation.co.nz.
They also said they can include a flyover of the Pike mine site at no extra cost to see if we can shoo away those pesky stoats.

Robomo

Just keep in mind that this sort of flight depends on weather, which is often not suitable for VFR (visual flight rules) so you wouldn't want to rely on it. You may be able to charter a twin engine aeroplane with instrument flight rules capability which would increase your chances, but cost more, and even then you would probibily want to avoid flying in any more than about 25 knots of wind.

[Mark Martin]

Try flying into Nelson direct from Auckland and renting a car from there, about a 2 1/2 hour drive to the mine site and you get to see the load out at Ikamatua on the way. I think the frist flight into Nelson is about 8am, last one out is 6pm
Hi Robomo

Sounds like a good scheme, but you'd want to be careful relying on a VFR flight across to Greymouth - 50/50 as to whether you could get across. You planning on flying yourslef or charter?

[iceman]

Try flying into Nelson direct from Auckland and renting a car from there, about a 2 1/2 hour drive to the mine site and you get to see the load out at Ikamatua on the way. I think the frist flight into Nelson is about 8am, last one out is 6pm

At the moment I am 90% sure I will be driving from Nelson for the AGM and will have room for 3 or 4 people if anyone interested. Will know for sure whether I will be going or not, by the end of this month. Am working in Argentina at the moment and dates over here are even less reliable than dates and forecasts from PRC but should be back in time for the AGM !!

[Logen Ninefingers]

Gordon leaves today. Pike may be gradually off-loading a couple of million partly paid shares issued at one cent per share.
Funds for the sale will go to Pike.
I will take a guess at the strike price $1.10 - $1-20 - $1.40. He won't make very much for his efforts, he will have departed
prior to the commissioning of hydro mining.

Monkey Poms.

There's some sort of bullsh*t going on. The market goes up to $1.12 and you have sellers sitting at $1.13 and buyers at $1.12 and suddenly a sale goes through at $1.10 ..... why would anyone sell at $1.10 when the SP is 2 cents above that mark.....

[bung5]

There's some sort of bullsh*t going on. The market goes up to $1.12 and you have sellers sitting at $1.13 and buyers at $1.12 and suddenly a sale goes through at $1.10 ..... why would anyone sell at $1.10 when the SP is 2 cents above that mark.....

Unless your trading these shares why should it bother you so much?

[Logen Ninefingers]

Unless your trading these shares why should it bother you so much?

I wouldn't dream of trading shares. It's just interesting is all bungmeister.

[tony64peter]

It was only 17000 odd at market, maybe someone needed the money
There's some sort of bullsh*t going on. The market goes up to $1.12 and you have sellers sitting at $1.13 and buyers at $1.12 and suddenly a sale goes through at $1.10 ..... why would anyone sell at $1.10 when the SP is 2 cents above that mark.....

[Logen Ninefingers]

It was only 17000 odd at market, maybe someone needed the money

The GST rise bites hard and early aye....

[JoeBlogs]

There's some sort of bullsh*t going on. The market goes up to $1.12 and you have sellers sitting at $1.13 and buyers at $1.12 and suddenly a sale goes through at $1.10 ..... why would anyone sell at $1.10 when the SP is 2 cents above that mark.....

The sellers at 1.12 must have withdrawn. There's been a 2-3c spread much of the day.

[Hoop]

There's some sort of bullsh*t going on. The market goes up to $1.12 and you have sellers sitting at $1.13 and buyers at $1.12 and suddenly a sale goes through at $1.10 ..... why would anyone sell at $1.10 when the SP is 2 cents above that mark.....

It could be many things..nothing to get worried about


Using TA with emphasis on trendlines and S&R lines, I tend to watch out for "shake out plays" especially in low volume NZX stocks.

so naturally my first thought was that it may have been a "shake out" play that failed to work...but looking at the 110 price and the depth history tonight this seems very unlikely.



It was only 17000 odd at market, maybe someone needed the money

the two trades were 12000 and 848 at 110 the surrounding trades were at 111 .......so..could just be someone who needed the cash quick....maybe to urgently buy in to another stock ...any rumours on the grape vine?

Another likely scenario... it could have been around someones 1pm-2pm lunchtime and without access to trade during their working hours.

[Logen Ninefingers]

I just thought it was an anomaly...I thought I saw something similar happen on Friday, so may have read too much into it. Will be looking again tomorrow to see if something similar happens where the upward momentum seems to be building strongly, then suddenly dips back to $1.10, then heads back up again.

[brucey09]

Snrs.
may be Snr ward leave early because hydro not working quickly. why does the company not tell us please.

[JoeBlogs]

I don't think so, they've started commissioning about when they said they would. I'm assuming their initial target is 1000 tonnes per day (rather than 1000 tonnes total), hopefully they'll get there soon.

[brucey09]

Snr. Joe - we all hope !

[Baddarcy]

I don't think so, they've started commissioning about when they said they would. I'm assuming their initial target is 1000 tonnes per day (rather than 1000 tonnes total), hopefully they'll get there soon.

Didn't the post from Mouse about a week ago with the quote from Pete say they were close to the 1000 tonnes?

So if close means say 800 tonnes per day, the end result is that we are producing 4000 tonnes per week more than what we were before hydro started. So add in what the Beast is producing ( as an aside i noticed that in the last announcement that advance rates for the ABM20 had increased from 12.2m per day in the last quarterly report to over 13m per day ) and a 3rd 20,000 tonnes shipment can't be all that far away?

[bung5]

Didn't the post from Mouse about a week ago with the quote from Pete say they were close to the 1000 tonnes?

So if close means say 800 tonnes per day, the end result is that we are producing 4000 tonnes per week more than what we were before hydro started. So add in what the Beast is producing ( as an aside i noticed that in the last announcement that advance rates for the ABM20 had increased from 12.2m per day in the last quarterly report to over 13m per day ) and a 3rd 20,000 tonnes shipment can't be all that far away?

But remember that 1000 tonnes a day/week was a translation from 1000 tonnes in total according to the email. Who knows what it really means?

[JoeBlogs]

Exactly bung, that's the bit that I don't get. Surely the difference between 1000 tonnes and 1000 tonnes per day is huge, and PW would have pointed it out if it was 1000 tonnes per day?

[Logen Ninefingers]

Re hydro-mining: How many days now til they say commissioning is over and we have entered steady production?

[Baddarcy]

I just thought it was an anomaly...I thought I saw something similar happen on Friday, so may have read too much into it. Will be looking again tomorrow to see if something similar happens where the upward momentum seems to be building strongly, then suddenly dips back to $1.10, then heads back up again.

Looks like its PRCOA's turn for someone to play silly buggers with. Someone just sold 784 PRCOA's for 12c worth to grand total of about 90 bucks, but caused the stock to drop 3c or 21% in one swoop.

All i can guess is that someone is trying to spook the market and then pick some up for a cheep price.

[Logen Ninefingers]

Looks like its PRCOA's turn for someone to play silly buggers with. Someone just sold 784 PRCOA's for 12c worth to grand total of about 90 bucks, but caused the stock to drop 3c or 21% in one swoop.

All i can guess is that someone is trying to spook the market and then pick some up for a cheep price.

Hmmmm....maybe because we were watching PRC they turned their attention to the PRCOA's. It does seem like there is a concerted 'attack' on PRC at the moment.

[777]

There are lots of reasons for these sort of trades. Could be an estate being wound up by a solicitor who just sold them at market. Just picked bad day for it. Could also be someone just tidying up their portfolio and doesn't think they are worth holding. The fact is if you wait for another 5c as they were a week or so ago the proceeds would only be another $23 odd.

[Logen Ninefingers]

There are lots of reasons for these sort of trades. Could be an estate being wound up by a solicitor who just sold them at market. Just picked bad day for it. Could also be someone just tidying up their portfolio and doesn't think they are worth holding. The fact is if you wait for another 5c as they were a week or so ago the proceeds would only be another $23 odd.

I just don't buy that....I think the 'spook the market' theory is more likely. Someone wants the price down now, probably because we are almost out of the commissioning phase and they know it.

[777]

There is a certain amount of paranoia in this thread. Spooking the market on 784 shares? Why did they not then just sell 250 options. Just enough to cover the brokerage.

[JoeBlogs]

Exactly, it would be a pretty dumb market to be spooked by 784 shares! I think the most likely explanation for this sort of trade is it's the leftovers of a trade at a higher price, and the seller just wants to complete the order - done it before myself. Just a common side-effect of illiquidity

[Logen Ninefingers]

I don't go in for conspiracy theories generally, they are usually the product of over-active imaginations....then again, did the CEO get taken out recently because he "knew too much"???

[Logen Ninefingers]

I thought commissioning was supposed to be completed and us into steady production by start of October???? It's the 6th!!!!!! ARGGGGGHHHHHH!!!!! I feel like I'm going nuts like Paul Henry!!!!
Where is an announcement?????????????????????

[winner69]

Shareprice on the rise today .... somethings up .... or am I just suffering from a dose of paranoia

[Logen Ninefingers]

$1.13 and $0.125 for the options is not getting me excited......I'm sure we are all hanging out waiting for Peter Whittall to wake up from his slumber and tell us that he's satisfied that everything is running hunky-dory and we have officially entered the golden dawn of full hydro-mining.

[JoeBlogs]

Shareprice on the rise today .... somethings up .... or am I just suffering from a dose of paranoia

winner, I hope it's more a case of toung in cheek than paranoia! Looks like a big hurdle at 1.13

[Logen Ninefingers]

Back to $1.12 again....

[Baddarcy]

Shareprice on the rise today .... somethings up .... or am I just suffering from a dose of paranoia

Nope just looking at the wrong stock i suspect :-) We are going no where fast today so far.

[Logen Ninefingers]

We're just drifting along waiting. Should be used to it by now. Seems the new CEO likes making his announcements via the local newspapers and the NBR. I guess he tells some reporter where they are at regarding bonus payments, hydro-mining commissioning etc, then they announce what's going on via a story in the paper, and then the news trickles down to the shareholders via this site. Brilliant.

[patrick]

Does anyone know for sure whether the Bonus payout is after production of 1000 tonnes per day or after total production of 1000 tonnes??

[Wilkins_Micawber]

Does anyone know for sure whether the Bonus payout is after production of 1000 tonnes per day or after total production of 1000 tonnes??

More to the point, does the management at PRC know?? And if they do then it shouldn't be that hard for the shareholders to find out or be informed, should it???

[corporateraider]

It's companies like PRC that make it so attractive to invest in Australia.

Disclosure: Waiting for an opportune exit

[Monkey Poms]

It's companies like PRC that make it so attractive to invest in Australia.

Disclosure: Waiting for an opportune exit

Hope the opportunity comes for you soon Corporateraider.

I looked at a small pile of coal in the yard about 130 mt ( thought ) that's the amount pike need to cut and send
through the flumes down a pipe to the washer per hour to reach Pikes coal production target. For what its worth
I don't think its too difficult of a task once the hydro mining equipment is finely tuned.

There is not much for Piker's to debate at the moment (i think we've said it all) the silence is deafening.
Imagined Peter with his wet gear on looking like Captain Bird's eye blasting the water jet at the coal seam with
the miners looking on, grumbling come on Peter you have been on for hours it's our turn now.

Ok it sounds daft, but not as daft as JoeBlogs he saw the Pope doing the same thing.

Monkey Poms

[brucey09]

Snr Momkey
Pike is a joke - yes - make money from this ?? Not to know.

[JoeBlogs]

Ok it sounds daft, but not as daft as JoeBlogs he saw the Pope doing the same thing.


Perhaps a bit of devine intervention is all that can help us now ;-)

[Dr_Who]

Pike is a trading stock that is loved and manipulated by trader, so expect it to be volatile.

[Logen Ninefingers]

Commissioning began on 20 September and we were advising that "all equipment is installed and functioning well". Ok, now after 3 weeks are we still "commissioning"?????
Actually, the pattern I see is a flurry of ingratiating announcements and PR whenever new capital is required, and then once the money is secured the information supply gets cut off and PRC jealously guard what is going on and basically give their shareholders the one finger salute. I guess the shareholders will have the last laugh though....genuine supporters will be driven off as gradually their patience and good-will is totally eroded, and all that will be left is a bunch of traders, speculators & a few barnacle-like diehards. NZO have already announced that they will sell up as soon as there is an opportune moment, and at some stage the Indian shareholders will probably figure out that they don't need this grief any longer and can invest somewhere where someone has a clue what they are doing. ....And from there PRC will be on their own; they will have cried wolf one too many times, and when they cry wolf again no-one will be around to come a-running. The ventalation shaft was eons ago, "we are a start-up" doesn't wash anymore; either this hydro-mining equipment and the system they have spent years getting ready works or it doesn't - end of story. If it doesn't work out, then I would have to say that PRC would rank as one of the biggest corporate jokes in NZ history. They make something which Solid Energy and the Australians and the Yanks and Brits and everyone else do, i.e. mining coal, look like trying to get to Pluto using a rocket you made out of old wood and aluminium you scrounged up from your old shed out back. They make getting coal out of the ground look like trying to catch a kingfish using a reel of cotton and a safety pin you pinched from ya nana's sewing kit. FFS.

[winner69]

Shareprice on the rise today .... somethings up .... or am I just suffering from a dose of paranoia

jeez what happened yesterday afternoon ... it closed at 110 .... maybe somethign wasn't up after all

Not much interest today though .... not even from the DRs traders who love this stock

[Baddarcy]

jeez what happened yesterday afternoon ... it closed at 110 .... maybe somethign wasn't up after all

Not much interest today though .... not even from the DRs traders who love this stock

Funny, a flurry of little trades followed just after your post Winner. Currently back to 111 :-)

[neopoleII]

just a quick question regarding the hydro mining......
where are they getting the water from to run the water cannon?
surely this must use an extremely large volume of water........
first it has to cut the coal, then slurry it down a pipeline, then be separated from the coal in settling ponds.

[JoeBlogs]

Just got confirmation from PRC that the 1000 tonnes is a total figure, not 1000 tonnes per day. Aparently we should expect an announcement in the next few days.

[manxman]

just a quick question regarding the hydro mining......
where are they getting the water from to run the water cannon?
surely this must use an extremely large volume of water........
first it has to cut the coal, then slurry it down a pipeline, then be separated from the coal in settling ponds.

They recycle a lot of the water. There are twin pipelines between the mine and the coal prep plant.

[Baddarcy]

Just got confirmation from PRC that the 1000 tonnes is a total figure, not 1000 tonnes per day. Aparently we should expect an announcement in the next few days.

Good work JB. Am a little nervous that it has taken almost 3 weeks to get just 1000 tonnes. But i guess there is a fair bit of equipment to commission not just the water blaster at the end. pumps etc.

[Baddarcy]

But in saying that, there does seem to be a heck of a lot more interest in PRC today. Total volume traded so far this week has been Monday 75k, Tuesday 95k and Wednesday 95k. Today so far we have done 213k........ So maybe the news isn't going to be bad.

[JoeBlogs]

Yeah I'd imagine the 1000 tonne mark has been and gone and they're trying to get together a forecast before they announce anything.

[winner69]

If you guys are DB customers were you all selling last week ..... PRC #3 on the Top 10 sells list (value of sell trades less value of buy trades) behind FPA and TEL

http://www.directbroking.co.nz/directtrade/dynamic/instrumenttradingranking.aspx

[JoeBlogs]

Seems a strange list to publish, surely it doesn't mean anything unless you happen to think DB clients have other than average prowess.

[Baddarcy]

Interesting, PRC made an announcement to the ASX on Monday that they didn't make to the NZX. Different rules i guess. It disclosed that Gordie was no longer a director and listed his holdings as followed:

Number & class of securities
546,592 Ordinary Shares
234,476 Options
1,000,000 Partly Paid Shares (Unlisted)

As an aside decent volumes have gone thru the ASX today as well, looks like the market is expecting (most likely already knows.... grrrr) some news

[JoeBlogs]

Yes, very high volumes (comparatively speaking) on the ASX

[Monkey Poms]

just a quick question regarding the hydro mining......
where are they getting the water from to run the water cannon?
surely this must use an extremely large volume of water........
first it has to cut the coal, then slurry it down a pipeline, then be separated from the coal in settling ponds.

I think the water is drawn from a river then recycled.


From time to time you will have to top up the water system as you will lose some through evaporation from the slurry ponds also
you could increase the moisture content of the export coal by a couple of per cent by the coal washing process.
I would not worry too much about that as it is exported for in excess of US$200 per tonne.

Monkey Poms.

[swissboy]

I really struggle with that figure of total 1000T when you look at the expected 1 million T export per annum which nearly equates to 3000T per day. The last Rail shipment was exactly 5 weeks ago, so there must be one hell of a stack somewhere either at the coal prep plant or at the railhead. Moreover they have a short term loan from NZOG which they hope to repay by December totalling $ 26.4 mil with interest and set-up fees. They could have done 1000T using the one ABM beast only in this period, without any hydro mining. Besides why pay each miner $ 10 k when they expect to mine 3 times that much per day when full production is under way???

[JoeBlogs]

I had a similar view to you at first swissboy, but I think the point is that 1000 tonnes through the system is seen as a milestone in its implimentation (rather than simply the point when they start squirting water at coal). It is a test of the system as a whole, which as monkey poms has pointed out will most certainly have glitches that need to be ironed out. As for the timing of this milestone, unfortunately it looks like we will have to wait and see.......

[Logen Ninefingers]

Couldn't they have pumped some water up to the mine months ago and tested this system out? I mean if the hydro-mining equipment is working fine and all, why look to find the glitches in the system now when you probably want to be going gang-busters getting coal out? (Sorry for saying this, I know questioning what is happening is not popular).

[rabcat]

Seems a strange list to publish, surely it doesn't mean anything unless you happen to think DB clients have other than average prowess.


Well I think DB customers do have above average ability to pick winners and losers!

Good news that you all think Hyro mining is nearly up and running. Seem that PRC are making steady progress toward full production?

[neopoleII]

the reason i asked about the water volume is that there is no news regarding the first 1000t of coal via hydro mining.
so im thinking....... the water cannon is a very simple device, squirt pressurised water through a nossle at the coal face.
im thinking to cut one tonne of coal from the face would require 10s of 1000s of liters, times that by 1000t a day and the volumes are very large.
if they get the first lot of water from a river and then recycle the vast majority and pump it back up to the coal face, the water has to go through a filtration or settling system. maybe this is where they might be getting stuck........ the coal silt isnt settling fast enough to repump the water to the coal face to achive the coal volume they are after.
as an example i have a large dam on my land and when the market garden run off goes into the dam it takes a long time for the water to go clear again while the soil settles.
it would be good to learn how much water is required to cut 1 tonne of coal, and what they use to clean/filter the water to send back to the high preassure pump.

[Lion]

I was driving to Blackball a bit before midday today and saw a coal train across the Grey River, near Ngahere,heading North.
I can't see any reference on the Railtrack site about trains to Ikamatua. I wonder if it was going to pick up Pike coal though - what do people think?

Share price up 2 today, up 3 for the week.

I wouldn't think there's any shortage of water on the Coast, nor any worry about polluting waterways - the mine has won environmental awards, hasn't it? They must have that bit sorted, at least.

Interesting history in Blackball about the miners of the old days, fainting and vomiting from the poisonous gases underground, 15 minute lunch breaks, poor conditions. Laid off when coal demand fell, to 1 or 2 days a week, then working overtime when demand picked up.

I'd wanted to go to the (formerly) Blackball Hilton to try and get some inside info, but they weren't open yet.

[manxman]

the reason i asked about the water volume is that there is no news regarding the first 1000t of coal via hydro mining.
so im thinking....... the water cannon is a very simple device, squirt pressurised water through a nossle at the coal face.
im thinking to cut one tonne of coal from the face would require 10s of 1000s of liters, times that by 1000t a day and the volumes are very large.
if they get the first lot of water from a river and then recycle the vast majority and pump it back up to the coal face, the water has to go through a filtration or settling system. maybe this is where they might be getting stuck........ the coal silt isnt settling fast enough to repump the water to the coal face to achive the coal volume they are after.
as an example i have a large dam on my land and when the market garden run off goes into the dam it takes a long time for the water to go clear again while the soil settles.
it would be good to learn how much water is required to cut 1 tonne of coal, and what they use to clean/filter the water to send back to the high preassure pump.

Only the surplus water returned to the river needs real cleaning up. As far as I can make out, there are two basic water circuits. The first from the pit sump area back to the hydro mining unit, the second from the coal prep plant back to the pit bottom. In both cases, I think that you would want to avoid recycling abrasives, but a bit of coal going round the loop wouldn't be a problem. At the pit bottom sump area, the space limitations would preclude any serious purification.

I suspect that a significant part of the commissioning/ramping up process is in learning how to operate the conveying systems with minimum water/coal ratios so as to reduce the load on pumping and clarification systems and satisfy resource consent conditions for the ultimate discharge. They have plenty of water available but everything they take has to be cleaned up before discharge, so the economics push them towards maximum recycling

[tony64peter]

Is the line thru Greymouth, Reefton the same line to Westport?
I was driving to Blackball a bit before midday today and saw a coal train across the Grey River, near Ngahere,heading North.
I can't see any reference on the Railtrack site about trains to Ikamatua. I wonder if it was going to pick up Pike coal though - what do people think?

Share price up 2 today, up 3 for the week.

I wouldn't think there's any shortage of water on the Coast, nor any worry about polluting waterways - the mine has won environmental awards, hasn't it? They must have that bit sorted, at least.

Interesting history in Blackball about the miners of the old days, fainting and vomiting from the poisonous gases underground, 15 minute lunch breaks, poor conditions. Laid off when coal demand fell, to 1 or 2 days a week, then working overtime when demand picked up.

I'd wanted to go to the (formerly) Blackball Hilton to try and get some inside info, but they weren't open yet.

[Lion]

Is the line thru Greymouth, Reefton the same line to Westport?

Yes, I think so. But would coal trains be going to Westport? I don't know.

I wish now I'd gone on the extra 30 km to Ikamatua to see for myself, but was a bit short of time.
I suppose all will be made clear sometime - sometime - sometime.

[morv]

The Christchurch to West Coast line divides at Stillwater. Going south to Greymouth, Rapahoe[coal,Solid Energy] and Hokitika. The line north services Ikamatua,Reefton,Westport and further north to Ngakawau[Solid Energy Stockton mine]

[Lion]

Thanks, Morv. I now think the coal train I saw going North was probably on the way to Stockton.

[Monkey Poms]

the reason i asked about the water volume is that there is no news regarding the first 1000t of coal via hydro mining.
so im thinking....... the water cannon is a very simple device, squirt pressurised water through a nossle at the coal face.
im thinking to cut one tonne of coal from the face would require 10s of 1000s of liters, times that by 1000t a day and the volumes are very large.
if they get the first lot of water from a river and then recycle the vast majority and pump it back up to the coal face, the water has to go through a filtration or settling system. maybe this is where they might be getting stuck........ the coal silt isnt settling fast enough to repump the water to the coal face to achive the coal volume they are after.
as an example i have a large dam on my land and when the market garden run off goes into the dam it takes a long time for the water to go clear again while the soil settles.
it would be good to learn how much water is required to cut 1 tonne of coal, and what they use to clean/filter the water to send back to the high preassure pump.

Neopole There will be problems regarding the time it takes for the coal silt to settle in the ponds once Pike reach full production
I am sure of that, whatever the problem I'm sure it won't need rocket science to fix, using a flocculent will help to speed up the
separation time.
Pike have one massive settling pond about 200 mtrs from the washer, We have two small ponds, when the first is full the flow is
switched to the second pond, allowing about four days to settle we can pump out the clear water then go in with front end loaders
to remove the coal slurry from the pond,when the second pond is full flow is switched back to the first pond, by this method we
have no need to stop the washing plant.
Manxman said it would not be a problem some of the very fine coal going round the loop ) I agree with this. A massive warman
pump is used to transfer water back up to the mine, the impeller just about the only thing that wears out on this type of pump
can be replaced in a couple of hours.
just looked at my sample box of sized pike coal it has a sort of grain structure in my opinion although I don't know for sure
the water blaster operator will soon find out the faster the coal is cut is the most efficient use of water, my guess blast a trough
along the bottom of the coal seam then work upwards splitting the grain.

Neopole, if you find out the sequence of the water blast operator against the coal face, id like to know

Monkey Poms.

[corporateraider]

I find it very reassuring that there are shareholders with a significant degree of mining knowledge. Of course it would be even more reassuring if I was so confident that a similar degree of knowledge existed within the company.

[Bixbite]

[QUOTE=Monkey Poms;322332
Pike have one massive settling pond about 200 mtrs from the washer, We have two small ponds, when the first is full the flow is
switched to the second pond, allowing about four days to settle we can pump out the clear water then go in with front end loaders
to remove the coal slurry from the pond,when the second pond is full flow is switched back to the first pond, by this method we
have no need to stop the washing plant.

Monkey Poms.[/QUOTE]


Hello Monkey Poms

Based on this “four days to settle” theory, if there are five to six separate small ponds would it be more efficient?

Bixbite

[Monkey Poms]

Hello Monkey Poms

Based on this “four days to settle” theory, if there are five to six separate small ponds would it be more efficient?

Bixbite

Hi Bixbite. It is one of those trial and error situations. Depends on the nature of the coal. We have washed Colombian & Russian coals
which, when you remove the coal slurry, now in a jelly form, from the ponds by front end loaders, holds the moisture for months before it becomes free flowing.
The Pike coal tends to repel moisture. Dry out time would be a fraction of the time it takes compared to the coals I've mentioned.
The South African in charge of the washing process really knows his stuff, as I've said before. If there's any need to divide the
pond it could be done quickly and with little effort.

Monkey Poms

PS, Bixbite - if you intend to go to the AGM meeting on 15th Nov, nip out of the meeting and pee on a pile of Pike fines.
You will then notice it will run down the pile of coal (and possibly wet your socks if you're wearing sandals).
Ty this again ,if you get the chance when you get back to Aussie, and repeat the operation on some of the
Bloomfield coal. No worries - the coal will soak the moisture up (and your socks will remain dry)! :)

[Bixbite]

Thanks Monkey Poms, it's very interesting, but not that I can understand. Hey, can we pay Pike to get some of its coal samples?

Last year I should have a chance to visit one of the Felix's resource coal mines in Blackwater before it changed hand to the Chinese; it is an open cut mine. Finally I let the young ones go and I went for the marine fishing offshore of Rockhamton . I tell you - we all came back with "all black". The coal mine visitors were covered up all black with coal. My fishing group were covered up all black with giant squid's ink - we came across with a big group of giant squid, we - four people fill a big bin with squids within 20 minutes, but we spent more than an hour to do the clean up for the boat.

Really wish to visit the Pike coal mine, but I think I'm interested in looking for the treasure - river pebbles from the river bank more than the coal.

Anyway, thanks again for your explanation. I'm heading to Auckland early tomorrow,

Bixbite

[Corporate]

I know it isn't always a good indicator...but the sell depth is looking quite thin. One good announcement and PRC could easily rip up into the 1.20 range.

[geezy]

half the posters in this thread can apply a job at PIKE and easily secure one, you guys shud have kicked GW ages ago!

[brucey09]

i agre snr. geezy - and still no coal quantity

[manxman]

Cheap way to get to the AGM.

Fly to CHC. Pick up camper van on relocation from Apollo rentals. Costs $1 per day, with the ferry paid if you relocate it to Auckland.

After AGM, drive to Picton, thence via Martinborough, Hawkes Bay and James Millton in Gisborne. Two berth camper will easily accomodate 6 doz bottles under the berths.

http://www.apollocamper.co.nz/reloc.aspx

[bermuda]

[QUOTE=manxman;322429]Cheap way to get to the AGM.

Fly to CHC. Pick up camper van on relocation from Apollo rentals. Costs $1 per day, with the ferry paid if you relocate it to Auckland.

After AGM, drive to Picton, thence via Martinborough, Hawkes Bay and James Millton in Gisborne. Two berth camper will easily accomodate 6 doz bottles under the berths.

The cheapest way to get to the AGM is to fly to Wellington and interview Peter Whittall.

If you get my drift.

Peter promised me he would get the coal out. And the price looks ok.I believe him.

[gtl1bero]

REL: 0945 HRS Pike River Coal Limited

GENERAL: PRC: PIKE RIVER PASSES FIRST HYDRO-MINING MILESTONE

Pike River Coal is pleased to announce that the mine has passed the first of
its hydro-monitor commissioning milestones and continues to increase daily
production.
"Pike staff were set the challenge in July 2010, to complete installation of
the hydro-monitor system and deliver the first 1,000 tonnes of hydro coal by
24 September 2010 to achieve a significant milestone bonus," says Pike River
Coal Chief Executive Peter Whittall.
"To ensure ongoing continuity, a second target of a further 790 metres of
roadway development was also set with the same target date.
"We started commissioning in the week beginning September 20 2010. The
process has gone very well with all of the gear synchronizing, by and large,
as expected. We reached our roadway development target and while we came very
close to achieving our target time-frame for delivering the 1,000 tonnes, a
number of factors such as lightning strikes that affected power supply to the
mine, and minor equipment glitches meant that target was delayed, but only by
a week.
"I am very pleased with the efforts of all staff who appreciated the
importance of reaching our targets and worked very hard to achieve them. As
a result, the workforce will receive 75% of the target bonus as well as the
satisfaction of seeing coal flowing from the mine in increasing volumes.
"That in itself is a major boost for all Pike employees."
Mr Whittall says that the first of the main underground mine ventilation fans
is also now in commissioning and that process is expected to be completed in
the coming week. This will increase ventilation underground and allow
production from the hydro-monitor panel to continue to ramp-up.
The company is continuing to evaluate its roadway advance and
hydro-extraction performance against its current full year forecast and will
update the market once commissioning of all equipment is achieved in the
coming weeks.
Ends
End CA:00200870 For:PRC Type:GENERAL Time:2010-10-11 09:45:33

[JoeBlogs]

Good update, thanks PW

[zon]

Unsurprisingly there are now a lot of buyers and few sellers - chances of hitting 1.20 today?

[Baddarcy]

Unsurprisingly there are now a lot of buyers and few sellers - chances of hitting 1.20 today?

Maybe, but it is a public holiday in the US and Japan today, so it won't be a big volume day unfortunately.

[dsurf]

The coal is flowing at last - will be an interesting month ahead for the options.

discl: hold oa's

[mouse]

I was wrong. :mad ;: I thought that the 1,000 tonnes had to be hit each day. :p But No. Just get out a thousand tonnes. :D Which must make the new car a little closer. As the share price is also up, I am not too bothered about being wrong. Again. :p
This is the second time I have been wrong in my life. The first time I was wrong subsequent events proved me right. Mouse. :)

[JoeBlogs]

Haha, very good mouse. Things looking pretty good really, all on track - I think this release from PW today was really informative. I guess we can expect another shipment soon after nearly 800 m of roadway developement and the start of hydro - I wonder if they'll go for a bigger load like they indicated a while ago? Perhaps the gameplan has changed a bit with the squeeze on working capital?

[Billy Boy]

Maybe More info could come out at the AGM..
As in Output P/week, "Curve" or "Tonnages"
Would be nice to see something like that posted each week/month
on their website.
BB

[Baddarcy]

Maybe More info could come out at the AGM..
As in Output P/week, "Curve" or "Tonnages"
Would be nice to see something like that posted each week/month
on their website.
BB
Remember the next quarterly report is due at the end of this month, i suspect this will be the next news we will get.

[geezy]

Congrats to all Pikers for today's positive news. More good ones to come , and will NZO's shares start moving now pls!

[Billy Boy]

Remember the next quarterly report is due at the end of this month, i suspect this will be the next news we will get.

You are most likely correct.....
I will not be going to the AGM this year, so maybe some else could
make the suggestion.
Still I suppose , if we get a production update every quarter that is
better than nothing
BB:)

[Hoop]

Congrats to all Pikers for today's positive news. More good ones to come , and will NZO's shares start moving now pls!

ATM 118c... up 6.... +5.4%

Thank you Geezy..but this happy mushroom lives off TA from the dark side. no PRC lights (news highlights) needed and Management told us shareholders we would'nt understand it anyway.


http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/HappyMushroom.jpg

[Logen Ninefingers]

Buyers and sellers massing around $1.20....it looks like 2 great armies about to do battle.

[JoeBlogs]

I think the buyers just won ;)

[Beagle]

Buyers and sellers massing around $1.20....it looks like 2 great armies about to do battle.

I'm sorry, I just don't get it. The original forecast is for 1 million tons per annum which as we all know is 3000 tons per day. So they get 1000 tons out and it takes them bloody ages to achieve that, yes I know its ramp up to better things but they've all but said production targets will be reviewed and I can't imagine that will be up.

They miss their deadline for the 1000 tons and have to rely on NZOG yet again, who extract a further penalty for yet again propping up the problem child but all is forgiven despite all the dreadful chapters of continued missed deadlines and underproduction but in their infinite wisom PRC pay all the miners 75% of their scheduled bonus.

Some serious questions need to be asked. A deadline is a deadline and if its missed why are miners being paid $7,500 for such woeful underperformance. If PRC are throwing money around where's my $7,500, (tongue in cheek).

WTF is with the share price up 6 cents today on really no news of any consequence, they were allways going to achieve the grand sum of 1000 tons eventually wern't they ?

[JoeBlogs]

Hydro mining is the big thing everyones been waiting for. This news has been a long time coming, but it seems as though everything is coming together. I think the market would also apreciate that the roadway target was met (first time ever) and the hydro commisioning target (first 1000 tonnes through the system) was only a week late. It will be interesting to see revised production forecasts.

We're set for an almost 2 year closing high today!

[Billy Boy]

Buyers and sellers massing around $1.20....it looks like 2 great armies about to do battle.

Traders getting in boots and all.. Wensday will tell !!
The one's to watch now of course is the options !! Esp if the heads go to 130
BB

[JoeBlogs]

they've all but said production targets will be reviewed and I can't imagine that will be up.


Just to clarify, this is only relevant to the target for this FY (currently 620 kt), they've made no indication that the eventual steady state target of 1 mt/year will change - so it shouldn't have much bearing on the share price on a DCF basis. I'm picking a revision to somewhere around 400-500 kt for FY11 with the 1 mt/year mark maybe pushed back a bit, but still in 1H12 (based on current performance compared to the previous forecasts).

[Robomo]

You are most likely correct.....
I will not be going to the AGM this year, so maybe some else could
make the suggestion.
Still I suppose , if we get a production update every quarter that is
better than nothing
BB:)

I will be at the AGM (Auckland to Westport and back again in a day) and will be asking that question. I believe that continuous disclosure at this period of the mine's development is a reasonable request - just look at the amount of comment and speculation on this site over the past few months. If it was good enough to post tunnel progress weekly in 2008 then weekly updates on mining progress is just as relevant today.

Different story once steady state mining is achieved but right now, things can change in an instant - 7% increase in SP in one day just from confirmation that hydro mining has been successfully started.

[Unicorn]

WTF is with the share price up 6 cents today on really no news of any consequence, they were allways going to achieve the grand sum of 1000 tons eventually wern't they ?

Todays news was very significant, in that there are no major issues with hydro mining at this stage. That greatly derisks the project. If there were significant problems with hydro mining (and there could well have been) then that could have caused a lot of delay and expense.

[Unicorn]

Some serious questions need to be asked. A deadline is a deadline and if its missed why are miners being paid $7,500 for such woeful underperformance.

I agree. There were special circumstances, in that lightening did interfere, so simply dropping the incentive would not have been appropriate. I would far rather have seen a new incentive being announced, at the full value of the first but with a new target a month or two out (pre Christmas).

I also think the original bonus was ill considered, and the Board should be asked to justify the terms of it. I doubt than many shareholders have much interest in about $300,000 worth of coal - especially when it appears to involve an incentive payment of rather more than the value of the coal extracted. If the hydro system falls down under load, or fails to deliver the expected output, then shareholders should feel very aggrieved that they have paid an incentive and still not achieved the results they expected. It appears that there is a disconnect between the interests of shareholders and the interests of workers, and it is the Board that is responsible for this through an odd incentive scheme.

[Baddarcy]

I know it isn't always a good indicator...but the sell depth is looking quite thin. One good announcement and PRC could easily rip up into the 1.20 range.

Corporate you must feel like "The Man" after this post on Sunday !!!! Hows that for a prediction everyone?

[fish]

Fully agree Unicorn .It is very significant and we should see a change in sentiment towards prc in the coming months . IMHO the sp could hit over $2 again . The upside is yet to be factored into the sp . There is a lot of the highest quality coking coal-prc only have permission to mine 18 million of the 58 million tons in the brunner seam . I suspect they will ultimately be able to mine much more . If only 50 % of the profit is paid out as dividends then a lot of cash will be available to develop further mines . Paparoa shouldnt cost much more to develop
The derisking should also prove significant for the nzo sp-hopefully we should see a good rise to reflect that in the nzo sp tomorrow.

[Hoop]

I'm sorry, I just don't get it.

WTF is with the share price up 6 cents today on really no news of any consequence, they were allways going to achieve the grand sum of 1000 tons eventually wern't they ?

Use some spare time and learn some basic market theory Roger..listening to media can be bad for you as it can alter your logic....remember a market is just a group of buyers and sellers. TA tools measures their past/present behavioural traits and FA measures the buyer/sellers item. Group human behaviour has predictable market behaviour traits based around two major emotions Fear and Greed...use all these to your advantage. Using all these disciplines PRC became a favourable share to buy into around the beginning of July when buying interest picked up and the investor mood (except for a few rowdy negative lot on ST) began to change for the better.

[Corporate]

Corporate you must feel like "The Man" after this post on Sunday !!!! Hows that for a prediction everyone?

Haha - fluke!

But hey here is another one. If the DOW plays nicely overnight, and 1.20 gets taken out...then $1.25 is on the cards.

[Corporate]

I'm sorry, I just don't get it. The original forecast is for 1 million tons per annum which as we all know is 3000 tons per day. So they get 1000 tons out and it takes them bloody ages to achieve that, yes I know its ramp up to better things but they've all but said production targets will be reviewed and I can't imagine that will be up.

They miss their deadline for the 1000 tons and have to rely on NZOG yet again, who extract a further penalty for yet again propping up the problem child but all is forgiven despite all the dreadful chapters of continued missed deadlines and underproduction but in their infinite wisom PRC pay all the miners 75% of their scheduled bonus.

Some serious questions need to be asked. A deadline is a deadline and if its missed why are miners being paid $7,500 for such woeful underperformance. If PRC are throwing money around where's my $7,500, (tongue in cheek).

WTF is with the share price up 6 cents today on really no news of any consequence, they were allways going to achieve the grand sum of 1000 tons eventually wern't they ?

Jeez roger...is this the sound of someone who's sold out?

Kick off of hydro mining is very significant. Pike is turning a corner.

[JoeBlogs]

Haha - fluke!

But hey here is another one. If the DOW plays nicely overnight, and 1.20 gets taken out...then $1.25 is on the cards.

Have to wait till Wed for that one

[corporateraider]

Jeez roger...is this the sound of someone who's sold out?

Kick off of hydro mining is very significant. Pike is turning a corner.

Hydro mining was always going to happen some time -that's the only significance that it should be accorded.

Roger and Unicorn, I think that you are completely right that it was an ill conceived target. It seems to me that they (almost) achieved the target simply because they learnt to use the equipment at the rate that it was designed to operate at,

Disclosure: Still holding. Someone should be able to run this efficiently.

[Dr_Who]

Looking very good. :)

[Logen Ninefingers]

Story is that the system works. 1000 tonnes through the system to prove that it works. Now they can ramp up.

[Monkey Poms]

Buyers and sellers massing around $1.20....it looks like 2 great armies about to do battle.

Logen Ninefingers. Your technical description ( Brilliant ) captured the mood.

Monkey Poms.

[fish]

Buyers outnumber sellers many times . Tomorrows battle looks as if it maybe one-sided

[Jonathan]

Buyers outnumber sellers many times . Tomorrows battle looks as if it maybe one-sided

here's hoping

[COLIN]

here's hoping

The NZX certainly needs something to inject a bit of life into it. I now hold only a very small portion of my total portfolio here, as I have found that there are far more exciting opportunities on the ASX, particularly amongst the junior mining stocks these days. It does require careful research, though, and a very watchful eye. But for those looking for something to spice up their investing life I would strongly recommend that you take a closer look across the ditch.

That said, I would agree that PRC is now looking decidedly warmer these days, particularly from a TA perspective. I bought a few at 94c back in July, after noticing that the charts were turning.

[Hoop]

Haha - fluke!

But hey here is another one. If the DOW plays nicely overnight, and 1.20 gets taken out...then $1.25 is on the cards.
If the primary resistance 122c 118 gets taken out and goes to 125 the 15 months trading range pattern will be broken and Pike has final confirmation of its new bull market cycle.

Normally a rapid rise through a resistance level sees a temporary exhaustion (profit takers appear) and temporary fall to retest that level to confirm support ...115c in this instance...a second chance entry for those still on the sidelines.. However note the strong depth support at 118 (see depth table at the bottom of this post) which may not let Pike retest the 115 level

As the 115 resistance level was broken today it marks a confirmation but not the final confirmation that a bull market could be operating...therefore a target price can be set today... 115 + (115 - 86) = 144c
..
..


Posted at 4.28pm
Buyers and sellers massing around $1.20....it looks like 2 great armies about to do battle.

Can't let you get away with that BS statement Logen. see the depth tables below at that similar time to your post


Logen Ninefingers. Your technical description ( Brilliant ) captured the mood.
Monkey Poms.

yeah right


Buyers outnumber sellers many times . Tomorrows battle looks as if it maybe one-sided

At last an accurate posting from Fish.

Depth figures (see below) at 5.00pm shows no sign of Buyers or sellers massing around 120....and a lack of sellers
However tomorrow is another day expect more sellers to enter especially at S&R points 120 122 ..who knows Logen may be right ..just posted a day early ..eh

Depth Table 5,00pm 11 October

Bids
Quantity.... No.... Price

34,955https://www.directbroking.co.nz/DirectTrade/images/spacer.gif .....1 ..... 119
136,192 ... 2 ......118 ....... depth support level
50,000 .....1 ...... 117
41,572 .....4 .......116
158,900.... 6 ......115 ....... depth support level
17,000 .....1 .......113
51,112 .... 2 ...... 112

Asks
Price..... No...... Quantity

120 ...... 1 ........17,727https://www.directbroking.co.nz/DirectTrade/images/spacer.gif
121 ...... 1............ 939
122 .......1 ..........4,904 .......Surprisingly no depth resistance at a primary resistance level Thats because the primary resistance is 118 not 122
124....... 1 ......... 3,617
125 ...... 3 ....... 24,465 ...... weak depth resistance
127 ...... 1........ 11,850
145....... 1.......... 7,400

[JoeBlogs]

Can't let you get away with that BS statement Logen. see the depth tables below at that similar time to your post


Actually there were over 200,000 shares on offer at 120 that got taken out shortly after LN's post

btw, where do you get 122 as primary resistance? I would have thought the adjusted closing high of 118 last June was of most interest. As far as I can tell, we've already broken the range, and support for any re-test is at 118.

[JoeBlogs]

We're off already - a tonne of shares traded before the bell, and buyers starting to weigh-in at 120 plus - could be another interesting day!

[zon]

We're off already - a tonne of shares traded before the bell, and buyers starting to weigh-in at 120 plus - could be another interesting day!

Gordan Ward's shares?

[Logen Ninefingers]

[QUOTE=JoeBlogs;322615]Actually there were over 200,000 shares on offer at 120 that got taken out shortly after LN's post
QUOTE]

Thanks. I know what I was looking at. Why the f#$k would I just make stuff up?

I've been a hard critic of some aspects of what has been happening at PRC but I like what the new CEO has brought to the role so far. People need to be judged on their actions and he's off to a hell of a start. Leadership starts at the top and a true leader can galvanise the people below him. There seems to be an energised feeling around the whole project now, and because he is steeped in coal mining I feel he is absolutely the right person to be at the helm. Coals in his blood, and he knows what he is doing.
The system works - that is the biggie for me. That means that almost every hurdle has now been cleared. Metaphorically speaking, this project has broken through it's graben: the shackles are off - the coal put up plenty of obstacles, it wasn't going to come out without a fight, but now it is defenceless and totally at our mercy.

[Pete]

If this carries on the Pike share price will be worth more than the NZO price soon...

[Billy Boy]

Use some spare time and learn some basic market theory Roger..listening to media can be bad for you as it can alter your logic....remember a market is just a group of buyers and sellers. TA tools measures their past/present behavioural traits and FA measures the buyer/sellers item. Group human behaviour has predictable market behaviour traits based around two major emotions Fear and Greed...use all these to your advantage. Using all these disciplines PRC became a favourable share to buy into around the beginning of July when buying interest picked up and the investor mood (except for a few rowdy negative lot on ST) began to change for the better.

Very good post Mr. Hoop
Many young learners out there can take note.
BB

[winner69]

Has to go to $2.50 plus doesn't .... jeez if PRC was $2.50 a few years ago just on promises and dreams it has to be worth at east that now seeing the dreams are coming true

Hoop ... doesn't matter about resistance or anything now .... its all up and up from here ..... as long as the chart in a few years time doesn't look like what it is now eh ....

Is this a a drawing of a hge pile of coal I see?l

[winner69]

another good signis that the taxi driver was telling me all about Pike River this morning .... might go and have a haircut now to see whether the hairdresser has heard about it

[Billy Boy]

another good signis that the taxi driver was telling me all about Pike River this morning .... might go and have a haircut now to see whether the hairdresser has heard about it

You will now be able to afford a private limo to go to work in.:p
And have the hairdresser come to you.:D:D
That'll give the economy a lift....:cool:
BB:D
PS Be a winner eh 69:D

[Phaedrus]

PRC has now broken above the Descending Broadening Wedge that it has been in since mid 2009 (blue arrow). You should not be overly surprised at this because these are a Bullish formation.

Looking back over the last 3 years you cannot help but be impressed by the timeliness and accuracy of the buy/sell signals derived from the OBV plot. Had I mentioned that it is my favourite indicator?

Contrast and compare this track record with the "valuations" provided by those that claim to have expertise in such matters. Find it in your heart to spare a thought in passing for the poor sods that bought PRC when the experts said it was "undervalued".

The only valuation that matters is that of the market - everything else is just noise and best ignored.

http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/tt102/PhaedrusPB/PRC1012.gif

[Hoop]

Actually there were over 200,000 shares on offer at 120 that got taken out shortly after LN's post

btw, where do you get 122 as primary resistance? I would have thought the adjusted closing high of 118 last June was of most interest. As far as I can tell, we've already broken the range, and support for any re-test is at 118.

Yeah 1.22 is a mistake it should be 1.23Joe you are correct it should be 118 I charted closing day highs instead of the more accurate intraday highs.
Joe the chart below will explain. Easy to see that long term trading range formation ..eh
That 1.23 has gained resistance strength today Yes..in theory a primary resistance 1.23 should be a strong repelling force. It is seen in early trading this morning when the price reached 1.23 test and so far failed (respected).


[QUOTE=JoeBlogs;322615]Actually there were over 200,000 shares on offer at 120 that got taken out shortly after LN's post
QUOTE]

Thanks. I know what I was looking at. Why the f#$k would I just make stuff up?

I've been a hard critic of some aspects of what has been happening at PRC but I like what the new CEO has brought to the role so far......
Sorry Logen apologies...I did not follow the depth table during yesterday,,,keep up the great critic work we need that balance....speaking of which where is he?


Has to go to $2.50 plus doesn't .... jeez if PRC was $2.50 a few years ago just on promises and dreams it has to be worth at east that now seeing the dreams are coming true

Hoop ... doesn't matter about resistance or anything now .... its all up and up from here ..... as long as the chart in a few years time doesn't look like what it is now eh ....

Is this a a drawing of a hge pile of coal I see?l
Depends on how much buying momentum at this primary resistance 1.23... Primary resistance was 118 which is now broken to become a support level
I expect the 1.23 to be broken soon. 1.23 is not a resistance level I have bet 37.5% (overweight) of my portfolio on this outcome.
Not much strong resistance above 1.23 1.20 visible yet apart from 2.50 2.30 peak...Don't laugh, technically speaking its been at 2.50 adjusted 2.30 for an instant before so why not again.

BB hows Queenstown this time of year?

Joe Bloggs has pointed out that my chart is unadjusted therefore the S&R lines are erronous
the shape is basically OK still a trading range type pattern.
The 110 support line OK
115 support line OK
Primary resistance should be 118 not 123 Therefore a breakout into Bull territory has occurred.


http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/PRC11092010.png

[Wilkins_Micawber]

another good signis that the taxi driver was telling me all about Pike River this morning .... might go and have a haircut now to see whether the hairdresser has heard about it

Doesn't this mean it's now time to get out of PRC?

[JoeBlogs]

Yeah 1.22 is a mistake it should be 1.23 I charted closing day highs instead of the more accurate intraday highs.
Joe the chart below will explain. Easy to see that long term trading range formation ..eh
That 1.23 has gained resistance strength today Yes..in theory a primary resistance 1.23 should be a strong repelling force. It is seen in early trading this morning when the price reached 1.23 test and so far failed (respected).


Yeah I get that, but wouldn't you be more interested in the adjusted chart as posted by winner69 a few posts ago? Surely levels based on market cap are more important, or does the psychological aspect of absolute (unadjusted) price take precedence? Surely there's a line, like if the number of shares was doubled in a rights issue, you wouldn't pay any real attention to unadjusted cum-rights price.

[Beagle]

I agree. There were special circumstances, in that lightening did interfere, so simply dropping the incentive would not have been appropriate. I would far rather have seen a new incentive being announced, at the full value of the first but with a new target a month or two out (pre Christmas).

I also think the original bonus was ill considered, and the Board should be asked to justify the terms of it. I doubt than many shareholders have much interest in about $300,000 worth of coal - especially when it appears to involve an incentive payment of rather more than the value of the coal extracted. If the hydro system falls down under load, or fails to deliver the expected output, then shareholders should feel very aggrieved that they have paid an incentive and still not achieved the results they expected. It appears that there is a disconnect between the interests of shareholders and the interests of workers, and it is the Board that is responsible for this through an odd incentive scheme.

Cheers for that, couldn't agree more.

Mr Hoop, I'm well aware of investment theory and the principals of fear and greed. What I see at this point is a lot of hot air and greed and very little solid rock, excuse the pun, to explain the ramp up in share price. PRC has a very long history of disappointing and lets remember that NZOG have extracted a heavy price with sale of coal options for the fiunancial support they've provided to their repetitive problem child.

For what its worth I think NZO with their strong balance sheet, proven ability to extract resources from their wells and under the proven leadership and skills of David Salisbury are a better bet.

[geezy]

Anyone here heard from Balance since the breakout?

[digger]

Anyone here heard from Balance since the breakout?

I wouldn't be worrying about Balance ,he is probably laughting to the bank about how many cheap shares he bought with a small bit of down ramping from weak sellers. Fools and there money are easily parted and when i heard what Balance had to say compared to what i suspect he was doing i think he was in the game and not at the fool end.

[mr.needs]

Has to go to $2.50 plus doesn't .... jeez if PRC was $2.50 a few years ago just on promises and dreams it has to be worth at east that now seeing the dreams are coming true

Don't forget there were a whole lot less shares around back then. Share price doesn't really tell the true story, you need to compare market cap.

[Billy Boy]

Don't forget there were a whole lot less shares around back then. Share price doesn't really tell the true story, you need to compare market cap.

Oh Yes.... quite correct.
And dont 4get the options that will be cash in around may 2011 from memory.

[Beagle]

Anyone here heard from Balance since the breakout?

No but i'm doing my best to add some. One major hiccup and PRC are nothing without NZO's support, who will really bend PRC over well and truly if they have to support them again.

[JoeBlogs]

Looks like today will be the largest volume ever traded for PRC

[freddy]

Gordon ward maybe


This off market transaction means business!

122 1,150,000 14:30 SP

[Billy Boy]

This off market transaction means business!

122 1,150,000 14:30 SP
Not always.... sometimes it is only an Insto shifting a parcel from one
account to another. (In House)
This is exactly why I would like to see who is the buyer and seller.
The brokers know, why cant we ???
BB

[Baddarcy]

Looks like today will be the largest volume ever traded for PRC

Funny we think alike :-) I was looking at that too, the biggest i could find was approx 11 million shares traded, but that was over a 5 day week back when the price hit $2.50. So far we have hit 6.4m in just 3/4 of a day!!

[Baddarcy]

Crikey these off market transers seem to keep on coming..... at what point do we start considering someone is preparing a takeover bid? Almost 2% of the company has changed hands today.

[Ian]

Not always.... sometimes it is only an Insto shifting a parcel from one
account to another. (In House)
This is exactly why I would like to see who is the buyer and seller.
The brokers know, why cant we ???
BB

would that be done piece meal like they are being traded today ?

[Beagle]

8 million shares changed hands as at 3.50p.m. this arvo. Crikey, what a battle, its like Lord of the Rings....

[Baddarcy]

would that be done piece meal like they are being traded today ?

It's not uncommon to build a stake before making a bigger offer. You become a substantial shareholder at 5% and then can go to 20% without any issues. Once you hit 20% if you want any more you have to make a full takeover offer, that offer must get to 50% otherwise you have to sell back down to 20%.

[Billy Boy]

would that be done piece meal like they are being traded today ?
No...No...
We now have letters in the depth like sp, lt, os etc..
why not
Price volume time cond ............like we have now
except under cond
we could have eg ... pv/td, or PV/PV or Inst/inst etc
pv means private td meaning trader co on
BB

[Billy Boy]

because brokers are already broke, and we're not yet? ;)

.....:d......

Bb

[dsurf]

NZO has stated the will sell down/out at some point. Surely this isn't the start of it?

Doubt it's NZO - My punt is ACC or NZ Super fund.

[Billy Boy]

Doubt it's NZO - My punt is ACC or NZ Super fund.

Balance !!! maybe

BB

[mouse]

This lot demonstrates that you should never listen to the crowd. Pike have got out 1,000 tonnes of coal total with hydro mining. The share price has moved from 85 cents a month or so ago to around $1.20. It is totally absurd. There are no concrete achivements that would support such a price. If it was only worth 85 cents a month or so ago, how on earth is it worth $1.20 now? Balance, having sold all those shares, would you please explain?
Meanwhile, I am waiting for our third coal shipment. The speed of that should indicate the possible share price.
I am of course not telling people not to buy. But maybe they, or more importantly their family, should ensure the mind is balanced first.

[Hoop]

Yeah I get that, but wouldn't you be more interested in the adjusted chart as posted by winner69 a few posts ago? Surely levels based on market cap are more important, or does the psychological aspect of absolute (unadjusted) price take precedence? Surely there's a line, like if the number of shares was doubled in a rights issue, you wouldn't pay any real attention to unadjusted cum-rights price.

Thanks for pointing that out Joe. I should be using an adjusted chart..(I thought I was) It created a crucial error for me too... You are right 1.18 was the breakout not my 1.23. It rather annoying as it easy to see in hindsight and I should have pick it up..but you tend to rely on computer generated stuff these days without much thought. I must admit I was scratching my head about the market depth resistance at 118 and it wasn't visible on my chart and vice versa on the 1.23 not being visible on market depth but visible on my chart, I even mentioned it in my posts....the penny should have dropped then that I had a chart error...but sadly it didn't.
I have gone back to my previous posts and corrected in red.
It seems I can't use incredible charts for PRC as the Yahoo data feed (publicised as being adjusted) is you rightly pointed out Joe is not adjusted. It seems Phaedrus has the same data feed problem on his chart too, luckily for him it created no major errors.

So a pullback to 115 seems wrong now with that 1.18 primary level breakout. It would be more accurate to say that a pullback to test the 1.18 primary support could happen...it nearly did today.

[manxman]

a month or so ago to around $1.20. It is totally absurd. There are no concrete achivements that would support such a price. If it was only worth 85 cents a month or sThis lot demonstrates that you should never listen to the crowd. Pike have got out 1,000 tonnes of coal total with hydro mining. The share price has moved from 85 centso ago, how on earth is it worth $1.20 now? Balance, having sold all those shares, would you please explain?
Meanwhile, I am waiting for our third coal shipment. The speed of that should indicate the possible share price.
I am of course not telling people not to buy. But maybe they, or more importantly their family, should ensure the mind is balanced first.

............................ it is a tale
Told by an idiot, full of sound and fury,
Signifying nothing.

McDunk Act V Scene 5

[JoeBlogs]

Thanks for pointing that out Joe. I should be using an adjusted chart..(I thought I was) It created a crucial error for me too... You are right 1.18 was the breakout not my 1.23. It rather annoying as it easy to see in hindsight and I should have pick it up..but you tend to rely on computer generated stuff these days without much thought. I must admit I was scratching my head about the market depth resistance at 118 and it wasn't visible on my chart and vice versa on the 1.23 not being visible on market depth but visible on my chart, I even mentioned it in my posts....the penny should have dropped then that I had a chart error...but sadly it didn't.
I have gone back to my previous posts and corrected in red.
It seems I can't use incredible charts for PRC as the Yahoo data feed (publicised as being adjusted) is you rightly pointed out Joe is not adjusted. It seems Phaedrus has the same data feed problem on his chart too, luckily for him it created no major errors.

So a pullback to 115 seems wrong now with that 1.18 primary level breakout. It would be more accurate to say that a pullback to test the 1.18 primary support could happen...it nearly did today.

Yeah bloody annoying isn't it - I would like to make better use of market maker, but like most of these packages it doesn't do adjusted price - so it's the basic DB charts for me! I think you'd probibly get quite a few traders using unadjusted charts so could potentially get a double-up effect when it comes to S/R lines - that would explain heavy resistance at the 1.23 level you pointed out. Interesting stuff anyway!

Mouse, with respect mate, this was always going to happen. The price was held down by high levels of perceived risk - much of that was removed on Monday with PRC confirming that hydro equipment had largely commissioned as planned. Remember, markets predict what will happen in the future, so this is really just people saying they now expect a much better chance of decent rates of coal extraction as promised. I think you'll see PRC around $2 within 6 months if things continue to go as planned. The fact that over 8 million shares were traded yesterday (almost double the previous all time daily volume high) means that this price rise is the business.

[Jay]

Hoop and JB

I emailed Infoscan whom I use and Phaedrus is/was also using for data, to say that they advertise that the data is adjusted etc but it was not.
They claim now that it is fixed from "now on" ( a couple of months ago) but I don't see how as the EOD data is available just after the close of the market - unless they alter it during the day?? - wouldn't think so.
However, they did intermate that previous data would not be corrected.
Haven't been following PRC that closley, when was the right issue - within the last 2 months or so, let me know and I will email them again and see what the response is

[JoeBlogs]

Thanks Jay, there have been a couple, last one earlier this year. It's not really of any use unless they adjust the historical chart data (i.e. pre-dilution), as the current pricing obviously needs no adjustment.

[Logen Ninefingers]

............................ it is a tale
Told by an idiot, full of sound and fury,
Signifying nothing.

McDunk Act V Scene 5

....nothing but inexplicable dumb shows and noise

--Shakespeare, Hamlet

[Baddarcy]

Mouse, with respect mate, this was always going to happen.....

Yes i agree with JB, the release isn't a nothing, it is a significant step.

Basically what they said was they plugged the stuff in, flicked the switch and sh*t it actually worked as expected. Given hydro is going to produce 80% of the coal i find it very reassuring that it works as expected.

It was also nice to hear that The Beast has been hooning all over the mine grinding up coal as it goes too.

I think the jump in the SP on Monday was more than justified given the news.

[JoeBlogs]

Here is the adjusted price showing the recent breakout above resistance at 118

Note the all time high is adjusted down to 225 (pre-dilution it was up near 250)

[Phaedrus]

Joe, what correction factor did you use and what date did you apply it?

[JoeBlogs]

Hi Phaedrus, my broker's very crude chart does it automatically. There will be correction factors applied prior to both the relevant ex-rights dates I suppose, so anything prior to the first one would be re-stated to reflect the dilution of both rights issues, would that be right?

[Lion]

The fact that over 8 million shares were traded yesterday (almost double the previous all time daily volume high) means that this price rise is the business.

3.8 m traded on ASX too yesterday

[dsurf]

3.8 m traded on ASX too yesterday

yesterdays trading was interesting from a T/A point - The "market" said the close was 119 after 100k odd shares on the close shunted the price down. VWAP on 8+ mill shares traded was $1.21.7. So the DB chart shows a failure to continue higher after mondays close of 120c with Tuesdays close at 119c after a failed attempt to rally higher.

However with 8+ mill traded VWAP at 121.7c versus the previous close of 120c it is an amusing failure. NZX low on-market volume does distort price points in charts

[Hoop]

Hoop and JB

I emailed Infoscan whom I use and Phaedrus is/was also using for data, to say that they advertise that the data is adjusted etc but it was not.
They claim now that it is fixed from "now on" ( a couple of months ago) but I don't see how as the EOD data is available just after the close of the market - unless they alter it during the day?? - wouldn't think so.
However, they did intermate that previous data would not be corrected.
Haven't been following PRC that closley, when was the right issue - within the last 2 months or so, let me know and I will email them again and see what the response is


Thanks Jay, there have been a couple, last one earlier this year. It's not really of any use unless they adjust the historical chart data (i.e. pre-dilution), as the current pricing obviously needs no adjustment.

Hi Jay, I agree with Joe ..Infoscan needs to correct the previous data preceeding their "fix"....especially if they advertise using adjusted data.

After Joe's post yesterday I went back to DB site and did a quick eye test to check the difference with their very basic supercharts which gives the option to adjust or not..so we do know that the adjustment facility is able to be to installed into a chart program...

....and who said drawing a line on a chart was easy ;)

[Phaedrus]

I don't usually bother correcting my data for small dividends, minor rights issues etc unless they cause a discernible "step" in the price action. A cent here or there really doesn't make any difference.
By way of example, here is the PRC chart corrected for the 2 for 19 rights issue in April.

See why I am unconcerned?

http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/tt102/PhaedrusPB/PRC1013.gif

[JoeBlogs]

Agreed, it doesn't make much of a difference - I guess the only reason we're discussing it is that the approx 4 c difference in the June 09 closing high is relevant at the moment with respect to the basic horizontal S/R line - but it was nit-picky of me. It will be a moot point once we get a proper breakout, and I'm sure the signals on your chart are of more interest anyway - I like the OBV, it just makes sense!