PRC Pike River Coal

[fabs]

Is this mine not working on a 24 /7 basis?

[Baddarcy]

Is this mine not working on a 24 /7 basis?

Yes.... sorry i'm missing your point ?

[JoeBlogs]

Aren't they working 5 day weeks?

45 m/day * 260 days/year= 11,700 m/year
200,000 tonnes / 11,700 m = 17.1 tonnes/m

[Baddarcy]

Aren't they working 5 day weeks?

45 m/day * 260 days/year= 11,700 m/year
200,000 tonnes / 11,700 m = 17.1 tonnes/m

Yes they are working only 5 days, but i used the 7 days advance rate figures of 12m - 18m per day, the 5 day figures were 16m -24m per day, so if you want to use them, you would pick the mid point of 20m per day and thus have the following calc. Which results in a minor difference.

3 * 20 = 60
60m day * 260 = 15,600m year
200,000 / 15600m = 12.8 tonnes per m

[JoeBlogs]

Ah right, I remember now. Cheers.

[Baddarcy]

Ah right, I remember now. Cheers.

No worries :-)

I was just trying to get an idea of how much coal there is really, all our sharetrader guesses seem to come to about a figure of between 12 to 15 tonnes of coal per meter of advance rate. Which should roughly mean the ABM20 is producing something just shy of 1000 tonnes per week.

Using that as a guide and given it has been 9 weeks since the last shipment the ABM20 should have done about 9000 tonnes and we know that hydro has done 1000 tonnes.

So IF the roadheader has produced nothing, hydro has produced nothing since the first 1000 and the working cont miner has produced nothing, then we should have 10,000 tonnes of coal in the yard. Most likely we have more than that.

[fabs]

One can speculate on hypothetical output figures till the cows come home, what with machinery that has yet to run consistent without some hang up for at least 3 months even at 1/2 capacity.
PRC done enough speculation 5 or 6 years ago should have been easy 1mil. per year by now.
In the real world its 40000 in 8 months at that rate 60000 per 12 months.
As to the 24/7 query, instead of handing out fancy bonuses, lets hire more miners and work 24/7 till they achieve some steady output.
That is if the new machinery is up to it.

[Billy Boy]

There is a coal ship due 11 Oct, Just B4 the annual Shareholders met.
Would be to much to expect I suppose ??......
BB:)

[neopoleII]

depends which year the october 11 coal ship is due....

[Billy Boy]

depends which year the october 11 coal ship is due....
But ??... Oh... Oh ... Oh sh*t
11th Nov.... Soon
BB

[Baddarcy]

But ??... Oh... Oh ... Oh sh*t
11th Nov.... Soon
BB

Funny :-)

Well if i was a new CEO about to front my first AGM, i would save up as much coal as i could and then announce a big shipment a few days before the meeting.

[Baddarcy]

Daily ShareChat: Pike River Coal By Jenny Ruth
Tuesday 2nd November 2010

Pike River Coal's production downgrade is much more severe than analysts had anticipated, says Craigs Investment Partners.

Last month, management again downgraded its production estimate for the year ending June 2011 from 620,000 tonnes to about 340,000 tonnes.

"We had anticipated 500,000 tonnes and factoring in the new expectation halves our EBITDA (earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation) estimate for 2011 to $31 million," Craigs says.

That compares with Pike's $40 million EBITDA loss in the year ended June this year. Craigs is forecasting EBITDA will rise to $181 million in 2012 and to $237 million the following year. That assumes Pike's steady-state production rate will be 920,000 tonnes a year.

It notes Pike still needs to refinance its $25 million loan from major shareholder New Zealand Oil & Gas before December 15. Pike intends to make an announcement on this some time in November.

Craigs lists key downside risks to its $1.29 target price for Pike shares as the company being unable to raise debt financing to meet cashflow requirements, falling coal prices, a negative assessment of its reserves, further production delays or a failure to meet production forecasts, breaches of resource consent limiting production and an increase in extraction costs.

Recommendation: buy (up from hold, reflecting the steep fall in the share price).

[patrick]

If there is a futher call on shareholders by way of an Issue presumably Option holders will have the same rights as shareholders?
Thanks.

[Baddarcy]

If there is a futher call on shareholders by way of an Issue presumably Option holders will have the same rights as shareholders?
Thanks.

Yup, same as last time. In regards to a capital raising options and shares rank equally.

[freddy]

In their cash flow reports they quite often have forfeited shares sold for money. like in the last one there is 258,000. How come someone has forfeited shares and the company gets the money? thank you anyone who can answer this for me.

[JoeBlogs]

Forfeited shares is a liability relating to the amount paid up on any shares that are forfeited - so if 100,000 shares paid to 50 c are forfieted, the $50,000 goes into the forfeited shares account. The company is entitled to deduct any reissue costs from this before it is refunded to forfeiting shareholders - this includes any shortfall on reissue, e.g. if these shares are reissued as being paid to 60 c, the 10 c diffirence comes out of the forfeited shares account along with admin costs, and the balance is refunded.

So, to answer you question, the company doesn't get the money - but there are cashflows involved.

[Baddarcy]

Well the staff are still buying shares, can be a bad thing.

ALLOT: PRC: PRCL Notice of Issue of Securities

PRC
05/11/2010 11:45
ALLOT

REL: 1145 HRS Pike River Coal Limited

ALLOT: PRC: PRCL Notice of Issue of Securities

5 November 2010

ISSUE OF SECURITIES
Announcement in terms of listing rule 7.12.1

Please be advised of an issue of securities as follows;

(a) Class of Security - Ordinary Shares (PRC).
(b) Number issued - 212,500
(c) The nominal value and issue price - $1.04 (no nominal value).
(d) Payment was in cash.
(e) Fully paid shares.
(f) The percentage of the total class of securities issued - less than
0.05%
(g) The reason for issue - shares sold in accordance with the terms of
the Employee Share Ownership Plan (ESOP) rules and the Pike River Coal
constitution.
(h) The specific authority for the issue - ESOP Plan Rules dated 4 August
2006 (modified 21 January 2008), and Pike River Coal constitution dated 17
October 2005.
(i) The terms or details of the issue - rank pari passu with existing
ordinary shares.
(j) Total number of listed securities in existence after the issue -
405,513,933 Ordinary Shares; Options (2011) 64,281,875.
(k) N/a
(l) Date of issue - 5 November 2010.

Brian Roulston.

[Lion]

Well the staff are still buying shares, can be a bad thing.



Can be a good thing, can't be a bad thing, should be good, couldn't be bad, that would be sad wouldn't it?

[Baddarcy]

India’s thirst for coal a good sidebar for New Zealand
Ross Louthean — 8 November 2010


The fact that shares in the State-run Coal India soared nearly 40% on the first day of trading on the Mumbai stock market last Thursday illustrates both investor demand and India’s demand for coal for its industrial growth.

The sale of a 10% stake in Kolkata-based Coal India last month was the biggest share sale in Indian history and banked the government $US3.4 billion ($NZ4.277 B).

The shares jumped to 340 rupees in morning trade, up 38.7% from the issue price of 245 rupees, handing those able to buy in the initial public offering (IPO) a handsome profit on paper.

Wire services said the strong debut bodes well for other part-privatisations in India, where the Government has an ambitious divestment programme entailing sales of chunks of strategic state-owned firms.

The group is the world's largest coal miner, producing over 80% of India's coal at 471 mines across eight States.

Coal currently accounts for more than half of India's energy use and consumption is set to increase as the country's economic development accelerates in energy-intensive sectors such as steel and cement manufacturing.

India's demand for coal has outstripped domestic supply, resulting in a 20% rise in imports each year since 2005.

Figuring in this has been New Zealand where Pike River Coal Ltd has major contracts with India’s Gujarat NRE Ltd which is also a major shareholder. Another major shareholder in Pike River is Saurashtra World Holdings Pte Ltd.

Indian companies have held talks with several NZ coal miners in recent years and, no doubt, is also figuring in the marketing plans for Bathurst Resources Ltd with its advancing Buller coalfield project.

While it is a comment that may raise the ire of the more myopic members of the NZ Greens Party, NZ’s export quality hard coking coal provides a quality blend for some of the low quality, high ash coals being used industrially in India – a genuine pollution issue.

[Monkey Poms]

Pike link. http://www.pike.co.nz/files/news_releases/NOM_Special_Meeting_IAR_15_11_10_Final.pdf

ASH - The story so far. PRC are capable of producing a 1% ash coking coal, compare this with
BHP Billiton coking coal on offer. The best Gregory 7.3% ash, up to 10% for the sought- after Saraji coking coal.
The problem Pike will incur in producing a 1% ash coking coal, due to the process of cutting
the coal, transporting it to the washer etc., is that there will be a lot of slurry waste.
PW has solved this problem by increasing the ash basis in the contract, in which the coal will
be sold on the world markets and to NZOG from 1% ash to 5% ash (problem with coal slurry
solved).

NZOG, not content with extracting a large arrangement fee for a short-term loan facility,
plus a generous interest charge, are now trying to extract from PRC a further US$ 6 per
tonne on every tonne purchased from PRC.

At the AGM you will be asked to vote for an extension to the NZOG coal purchase
option agreement. If the vote is passed it will entitle NZOG to purchase 30% of all tonnage
produced over the life of the mine. This equates to approx. 5,400,000 tonnes of coal.
The contract between NZOG and PRC, ( published under duress):
“IF THE ASH CONTENT BASED ON THE FINAL ANALYSIS AT THE LOADING PORT, EXCEEDS 1.5% ON AN AIR-DRIED BASIS, THE COMPANY (PIKE) SHALL BE CHARGED A PENALTY OF
US$ 1.50 PER TONNE FOR EACH 1% OF ASH CONTENT IN EXCESS OF 1% OR PRO RATA BASIS”.
This means that the mine will be producing 5% ash coal, yet the contract with NZOG provides
for a 1% ash coal.
Should PW produce a cargo of 60,000 tonnes sometime in the future for NZOG and the ash
analysis is 5% PRC will be expected to “discount” the invoice.
Penalty applied: 4% ash content above contract .
4 x US$ 1.50 = US$ 6 x 60,000 tonnes = US$ 360,000 ( an organised “discount”).
At the request of NZSX, PRC ‘s independent directors (?) will contract a third party to produce
a valuation of the option extension. This they have done by appointing Campbell Macpherson, who in turn have appointed MinAxis Pty Ltd., whose valuation to NZOG of the option extensions
over the life of the mine is approx US$ 0.5 million to US$ 2.6 million, with the most likely being
US$ 1.1 million. Monkey Pom’s valuation of the coal purchase agreement to NZOG, based on
the contract as seen :
US$6 per tonne ash penalty over the life of the mine, NZOG entitled to 30% of all coal produced
equals 5,400,000 tonnes = US$ 32,400,000, plus .
You can bet the farm that when NZOG sell the coal to a third party their contract will not be back to back with Pike. There will be a slight change. The basis of the ash content will be revised from 1% to 5%.
What can we do about it?
Option 1:
Pikers who attend the AGM could try to persuade the board to amend the coal purchase contract with NZOG from 1% ash to 5% ash.
Option 2:
Pikers, if you find when you get to the meeting there is lots of coal at Ikamatua and at the mine
plus the washing plant is spewing out 100 tonnes per hour of coal produced by hydro mining,
you are in a strong position. Then vote the motion down, persuade the board to go for a share
issue.
Option 3:
If you find there is no coal being produced and no coal on stock, and everyone is lying around
like loppy dogs, then in the words of Manxman we’re all in deep doggy doo-doo.
You can then make your own minds up as to what to do.
Monkey Poms
On this issue voting rights cannot be accepted from NZOG or any of its associates. That will take out 50% of the votes. A lot of shareholders will not bother to use their proxy.

[skid]

Sounds like this should be on the NZO thread as well

[Baddarcy]

Pike link. http://www.pike.co.nz/files/news_releases/NOM_Special_Meeting_IAR_15_11_10_Final.pdf

What can we do about it?
Option 1:
Pikers who attend the AGM could try to persuade the board to amend the coal purchase contract with NZOG from 1% ash to 5% ash.
Option 2:
Pikers, if you find when you get to the meeting there is lots of coal at Ikamatua and at the mine
plus the washing plant is spewing out 100 tonnes per hour of coal produced by hydro mining,
you are in a strong position. Then vote the motion down, persuade the board to go for a share
issue.
Option 3:
If you find there is no coal being produced and no coal on stock, and everyone is lying around
like loppy dogs, then in the words of Manxman we’re all in deep doggy doo-doo.
You can then make your own minds up as to what to do.
Monkey Poms
On this issue voting rights cannot be accepted from NZOG or any of its associates. That will take out 50% of the votes. A lot of shareholders will not bother to use their proxy.

Hi Monkey Poms, i thought the special meeting was just to approve and extension to the "Option Period" i.e. the period of time that NZO has to decide whether they action the contract or not. Wasn't the contract terms already approved back when they bought Liberty Harbor out?

[Baddarcy]

PRCOA had a bit of a shocker yesterday, looks like someone lost their nerve over the weekend and dumped their options yesterday at what ever price they could get. 6.5c seems fairly cheap to me, but that of course is assuming that Pike meet their production targets.

When i'm at the mine next week i will be doing exactly what Monkey Poms suggests and be looking for a big pile of coal. Big pile of coal = happy, small pile of coal = nervous, no coal = pissed!!!

I can't help but feel if Pike can actually meet thier target which works out at 40,000 tonnes per month then the share price is undervalued. It looks to me that the current price is assuming they will miss it, which i suppose given the track record of PRC is not an unreasonable assumption.

[blockhead]

Hadn't checked the option price for a few days, 6.5c, blimey thats a 60% plus loss for ol Blocky so far, ****e I do hope you fellows report a huge (very huge) pile of coal amassing over there.

[swissboy]

My daily vigil on the Rail track Engine movement to Ikamatua confirms that no engines have been there since the 4th September.
With Pike probably wanting the special vote to go their way, i expected some positive info by now, because the mail vote needs to be posted by this Wednesday to be in time to count.

[Mr Tommy]

When i'm at the mine next week i will be doing exactly what Monkey Poms suggests and be looking for a big pile of coal. Big pile of coal = happy, small pile of coal = nervous, no coal = pissed!!!.

I have a magnifying glass I could loan you for your trip.

[Baddarcy]

I have a magnifying glass I could loan you for your trip.

I presume you are meaning so that i can use hold it backwards because the pile of coal will be so big :-)

[Monkey Poms]

Hi Monkey Poms, i thought the special meeting was just to approve and extension to the "Option Period" i.e. the period of time that NZO has to decide whether they action the contract or not. Wasn't the contract terms already approved back when they bought Liberty Harbor out?

Hi Baddarcy. You are correct, the special meeting is to approve an extension to the option period.No point in granting a one year
extension, unless you get something in return. Raise the ash level to 5% in the sale agreement to NZOG
otherwise it will cost Pike the value of quite a few new AB20's.
The details of the contract to sell coal, as far as I know, were never published. I thought it would have been a back to back contract,
NZOG would have put a margin on the price it paid to PRC, then sold the coal on, which is fair enough. NZO stood by Pike regarding
finance. What I am talking about regarding ash penalties is over and above the margin NZOG would have made.

Monkey Poms.

[BWR]

The opinion being expressed by Monkey Poms needs to addressed as it is based on a flawed premise which needs to be addressed.

The value of any coking coal is a combination of a number of factors including ash content, sulphur content, fluidity, volatile materials, moisture, and distance from market. The primary advantage of Pike River's coking coal is its very low ash content, and it is therefore marketed at a standard 1% content. A disadvantage is distance from market.
All of the coal sales agreements that have been entered into by Pike River contain provisions for penalties if for example the moisture exceeds 8%; the sulphur exceeds a measure relevant to which sulphur product is being sold; and if ash exceeds 1.5% on an air-dried basis. To quote directly from one such existing coal sales contract:
" ASH: If the ash content based on the final analysis at the Loading Port exceeds 1.5% on an air-dried basis, the SELLER shall be charged a penalty of US$1.50 per tonne for each 1.0% of ash content in excess of 1.0%."

At present there is no coal sales agreement with NZOG, only an option to enter into such an arrangement. If the option is used then NZOG will contract on the same basis as every other customer of Pike River, as all its coal sales contracts contain these same terms. The penalties for variation from standards are consistent in all of Pike River's coal sales contracts, and apply consistently to all customers.

Monkey Poms seems to assume, based on the premise that NZOG are being given a discount, that they will have the opportunity of arbitraging any coal for which they have contracted. This is simply not correct, as should the option be exercised NZOG will be purchasing coal on the same terms and conditions as other coal customers. I would also point out that these contracts require the contracting party to take the coal, so there is a two way obligation.
Due to NZOG being a related party the NZX require each year, should the option be exercised, an independent report from an appropriately qualifed person stating that the prices negotiated between Pike River and NZOG represent commercial arm's length prices, are fair and reasonable to all contract parties, and reflect typical levels for contract prices settled at arms-length between major parties to internationally traded premium grade hard coking coal; and this be certified by Pike River's independent directors.

Finally Monkey Poms has asserted that Pike River will be producing coal with a 5% ash content. While some initial production will not meet the 1% standard, and this is to be expected, the steady state production has 1% ash as the standard production target.

[Beagle]

As an NZO shareholder I don't think its unreasonable that they look to clip the ticket pretty hard considering that without their ongoing meaningful support PRC would have been in receivership months ago.

Any way David Salisbury dresses it up PRC has been the real problem child for NZO so why not ask PRC to stump up with a full commerical arrangement in return for ongoing financial support ?

BTW I note PRC at $1.00 is breaking the key 100 day moving average....sign of future weakness to come ?

[neopoleII]

quote

"''and this be certified by Pike River's independent directors"".

whats an independent director? i see TR is now an independent director of nzo, i find this rather strange.
so how independent are these prc directors?
other than that the rest or BWRs comment reads fair.

[mouse]

Many thanks Monkey Poms for your information. You are in the business and know coal. I shall vote against the extension to NZO and would prefer to stump up for more shares. At say 80cents? Further I am surprised that NZO is seeking an extension of their deal without giving an extension to the option holders.

[Snapper]

As an NZO shareholder I don't think its unreasonable that they look to clip the ticket pretty hard considering that without their ongoing meaningful support PRC would have been in receivership months ago.

Any way David Salisbury dresses it up PRC has been the real problem child for NZO so why not ask PRC to stump up with a full commerical arrangement in return for ongoing financial support ?

BTW I note PRC at $1.00 is breaking the key 100 day moving average....sign of future weakness to come ?

Good point, as an NZO shareholder I think that NZO is duty-bound to get as good a deal as it can especially given the drag that it has been on the NZO's share price.

[the machine]

The opinion being expressed by Monkey Poms needs to addressed as it is based on a flawed premise which needs to be addressed.

The value of any coking coal is a combination of a number of factors including ash content, sulphur content, fluidity, volatile materials, moisture, and distance from market. The primary advantage of Pike River's coking coal is its very low ash content, and it is therefore marketed at a standard 1% content. A disadvantage is distance from market.
All of the coal sales agreements that have been entered into by Pike River contain provisions for penalties if for example the moisture exceeds 8%; the sulphur exceeds a measure relevant to which sulphur product is being sold; and if ash exceeds 1.5% on an air-dried basis. To quote directly from one such existing coal sales contract:
" ASH: If the ash content based on the final analysis at the Loading Port exceeds 1.5% on an air-dried basis, the SELLER shall be charged a penalty of US$1.50 per tonne for each 1.0% of ash content in excess of 1.0%."

At present there is no coal sales agreement with NZOG, only an option to enter into such an arrangement. If the option is used then NZOG will contract on the same basis as every other customer of Pike River, as all its coal sales contracts contain these same terms. The penalties for variation from standards are consistent in all of Pike River's coal sales contracts, and apply consistently to all customers.

Monkey Poms seems to assume, based on the premise that NZOG are being given a discount, that they will have the opportunity of arbitraging any coal for which they have contracted. This is simply not correct, as should the option be exercised NZOG will be purchasing coal on the same terms and conditions as other coal customers. I would also point out that these contracts require the contracting party to take the coal, so there is a two way obligation.
Due to NZOG being a related party the NZX require each year, should the option be exercised, an independent report from an appropriately qualifed person stating that the prices negotiated between Pike River and NZOG represent commercial arm's length prices, are fair and reasonable to all contract parties, and reflect typical levels for contract prices settled at arms-length between major parties to internationally traded premium grade hard coking coal; and this be certified by Pike River's independent directors.

Finally Monkey Poms has asserted that Pike River will be producing coal with a 5% ash content. While some initial production will not meet the 1% standard, and this is to be expected, the steady state production has 1% ash as the standard production target.



BWR, thanks for clarifying that NZOG will have no advantage over other customers.

Monkey Poms trust you will now reconsider your views.

M

[Monkey Poms]

The opinion being expressed by Monkey Poms needs to addressed as it is based on a flawed premise which needs to be addressed.

The value of any coking coal is a combination of a number of factors including ash content, sulphur content, fluidity, volatile materials, moisture, and distance from market. The primary advantage of Pike River's coking coal is its very low ash content, and it is therefore marketed at a standard 1% content. A disadvantage is distance from market.
All of the coal sales agreements that have been entered into by Pike River contain provisions for penalties if for example the moisture exceeds 8%; the sulphur exceeds a measure relevant to which sulphur product is being sold; and if ash exceeds 1.5% on an air-dried basis. To quote directly from one such existing coal sales contract:
" ASH: If the ash content based on the final analysis at the Loading Port exceeds 1.5% on an air-dried basis, the SELLER shall be charged a penalty of US$1.50 per tonne for each 1.0% of ash content in excess of 1.0%."

At present there is no coal sales agreement with NZOG, only an option to enter into such an arrangement. If the option is used then NZOG will contract on the same basis as every other customer of Pike River, as all its coal sales contracts contain these same terms. The penalties for variation from standards are consistent in all of Pike River's coal sales contracts, and apply consistently to all customers.

Monkey Poms seems to assume, based on the premise that NZOG are being given a discount, that they will have the opportunity of arbitraging any coal for which they have contracted. This is simply not correct, as should the option be exercised NZOG will be purchasing coal on the same terms and conditions as other coal customers. I would also point out that these contracts require the contracting party to take the coal, so there is a two way obligation.
Due to NZOG being a related party the NZX require each year, should the option be exercised, an independent report from an appropriately qualifed person stating that the prices negotiated between Pike River and NZOG represent commercial arm's length prices, are fair and reasonable to all contract parties, and reflect typical levels for contract prices settled at arms-length between major parties to internationally traded premium grade hard coking coal; and this be certified by Pike River's independent directors.

Finally Monkey Poms has asserted that Pike River will be producing coal with a 5% ash content. While some initial production will not meet the 1% standard, and this is to be expected, the steady state production has 1% ash as the standard production target.

Hi BWR. I have based my post on what I have read on this matter and a little experience.

Pike's forecasts downgraded to 'conservative' tonnages
BY MARTA STEEMAN - BusinessDay PRESS


Whittall has decided to sell coal with a slightly higher ash content than the 1 per cent Pike has been marketing. Initial shipments with up to 5 per cent ash and with 2 per cent to 3 per cent ash in the coking coal was up with the best in the world and would result in larger production and less coal being rejected without too much of a revenue trade-off. "I think, to be fair, Pike historically has been guilty of putting out best case scenarios. I've got an opportunity now as the new CEO to put out a different style of forecast which is more likely at the middle to lower range of possibilities rather than at the upper end."
------------------------------------------------------
The Coal Option Agreement.
*Note (K) NZOG will not unreasonably withhold its agreement to change the specification of the moisture content.
No mention of NZOG wanting to negotiate a change to the ash?

Should the unsold coal tonnage, be sold on a spot cargo basis
With a specification of 5% which is half the ash level of most
Australian coals, Pike will find a buyer, we would also save up to
US$360.000 per 60,000 tonne cargo,
= ====
Coal specifications:
(e) Pike River coal specifications are:
Indicative Specification 1.2% Sulphur 1.9% Sulphur
Total Moisture Arb 9% 9%
Inherent Moisture Adb 0.7% 1.0%
Ash Adb 1% 1%
Volatile Matter Adb 42-43% 43-44%
Fixed Carbon Adb 54.3% 52%
Total Sulphur Adb 1.2% 1.9%
Phosphorus Adb 0.0005% 0.001%
CSN 8-9 8-9
Fluidity Ddpm 40,000 40,000
log Log 4.60 4.605
GKI G9 G10
Size mm 0 x 50 0 x 50
Penalties:
(f) The terms of penalties shall be mutually agreed after sample tests are conducted and final
specifications determined by the parties, with consideration given to the following:
if the total moisture content exceeds 9% on an as received basis on the final analysis at the loading
(i)
port, the weight for invoicing purposes shall be reduced by the percentage by which the percentage of
moisture exceeds 9%.
if the ash content based on the final analysis at the loading port, exceeds 1.5% on an air-dried basis,
(ii)
the Company shall be charged a penalty of US$1.50 per tonne for each 1.0% of ash content in excess
of 1.0% or pro rata basis.
for the Company’s 1.2% sulphur product, if the sulphur content, based on the final analysis at the
(iii)
loading port exceeds 1.3% on an air-dried basis, the Company shall be charged a penalty of US$0.55
per tonne for each 0.1% of sulphur content in excess of 1.2% or pro rata basis.
for the Company’s 1.9% sulphur product, if the sulphur content based on the final analysis at the
(iv)
loading port, exceeds 2% on an air-dried basis, the Company shall be charged a penalty US$0.55 per
tonne for each 0.1% of sulphur content in excess of 1.9% or pro rata basis.
(g) Subject to the provisions described in paragraphs (a) to (f) above, neither the Option, as amended by the
Option Extension, nor the Coal Contract will prevent the Company selling coal into the spot market.
(h) NZOG shall not be obliged to use the coal for its own use and will not be prevented from onselling coal to a
third party.
(i) NZOG will not be obliged to take other coking coal products from the Company (inclusion of other coking
coal products in the annual quantity commitments can only be with the agreement of both parties) and
neither party shall be obliged to discuss such possibility.
(j) NZOG is to be entitled to assign the Coal Contract to a party reasonably considered by NZOG to have the
financial resources to meet its commitments under the Coal Contract.
(k) NZOG will not unreasonably withhold its agreement to a change in specification (if requested by the
Company) where the Company has negotiated a reduction in the total moisture specification for coal sold
under other contracts with other major customers. Any price impact of such change to product specification
will be dealt with as part of the normal annual price negotiations.
During the term of the Option, as amended by the Option Extension, and the Coal Contract, the Company:
will provide information to NZOG as reasonably required by NZOG in connection with the Coal Contract,
(a)
including information as to the status of its existing commitments, and its mine plan and forecast; and
agrees to permit reasonable access to the Company’s offices and facilities during normal business hours,
(b)
to a bona fide potential assignee of the Option or Coal Contract for the purpose of conducting due diligence
and the Company will provide all reasonable assistance.
Within 6 months of the exercise of the Option, the Company and NZOG are to negotiate the detailed terms of the
Coal Contract, which is to incorporate the terms outlined above. Failing agreement in relation to any detailed
terms, the terms set out in the Option (the key aspects of which are set out above) will continue to apply and be
binding between the parties.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Finally Monkey Poms has asserted that Pike River will be producing coal with a 5% ash content. While some initial production will not meet the 1% standard, and this is to be expected, the steady state production has 1% ash as the standard production target.
==========
BWR. At full production Pike will produce tens of thousands of tons per year of slurry
High moisture, with a ash content of around 18% coal slurry,
In the UK it is illegal to ship slurry with high moisture content. When dried in the sun the wind tends to blow it away,
In the past UK mine’s buried the slurry.
Pike are only allowed to tip up to 30,000 tons in total, of stone based waste.
If we do not use the coal slurry to increase the ash content, what will pike do with
the slurry?

Warning if any of you Piker’s attending the AGM tries to walk across the coal slurry
Pond,s DON’T otherwise you will sink, and your next journey will be as part of a
Coal blend on it’s way to INDIA.

Monkey Poms.

Disclosure.
We own several million more shares in NZOG than we do in Pike.
At 1% Ash, plus a premium penalty is a gift to NZOG.
Should be on the basis of 5% ash, plus or minus pro rata premium penalty.

[Beagle]

Good point, as an NZO shareholder I think that NZO is duty-bound to get as good a deal as it can especially given the drag that it has been on the NZO's share price.

Couldn't agree more Snapper. I think it could even be reasonably argued that there's a case to really "put the boot in" given the extremly protracted nature of PRC's ongoing demands for high level's of financial support.

I see today PRC have broken through the key 100 day moving average line at 99 cents, PRC management have to produce results or else shareholders are up for a really serious beating, IMO. Next stop around base support line of 85 cents ?

[Baddarcy]

Couldn't agree more Snapper. I think it could even be reasonably argued that there's a case to really "put the boot in" given the extremly protracted nature of PRC's ongoing demands for high level's of financial support.

Any successful deal has to be a win/win for both parties, Pike got the funding that it really needed so it is a win for Pike regardless of what people are saying here, also it was cheaper than PRC doing another capital raising. NZO got a better return than they would have got from the cash had it been sitting in the bank so it is a win for them too. All this bleating about NZO having to help Pike IMHO is a load of BS, NZO had no plans for the money other than leave it sitting in the bank so...so why all the whinging??


I see today PRC have broken through the key 100 day moving average line at 99 cents, PRC management have to produce results or else shareholders are up for a really serious beating, IMO. Next stop around base support line of 85 cents ?

Depends on any announcements i think, the AGM is on Monday and there must be a shipment due shortly or at least news about one, share price will depend on the size and timing of the next shipment i think. I don't believe that the 15th of December was a date chosen at random by PRC and NZO for the funding facility to end.

[Logen Ninefingers]

I see the world's best communicators Pike River Coal have gone into another news dead-zone in the run-up to Xmas.

The troubled mine has only ever got away 40,000 tonnes of coal total, and it's anyone's guess as to if / when they will ship some more.

[Beagle]

Any successful deal has to be a win/win for both parties, Pike got the funding that it really needed so it is a win for Pike regardless of what people are saying here, also it was cheaper than PRC doing another capital raising. NZO got a better return than they would have got from the cash had it been sitting in the bank so it is a win for them too. All this bleating about NZO having to help Pike IMHO is a load of BS, NZO had no plans for the money other than leave it sitting in the bank so...so why all the whinging??

Depends on any announcements i think, the AGM is on Monday and there must be a shipment due shortly or at least news about one, share price will depend on the size and timing of the next shipment i think. I don't believe that the 15th of December was a date chosen at random by PRC and NZO for the funding facility to end.

Plenty of bleating from Pikers regarding the cost of support and ash content e.t.c. so I thought as an NZO shareholder I'd add some balance.

Fact is over at N.Z.O. D.S. has stated they are looking at a number of overseas opportunities for their cash.

[fabs]

ROGER.
Maybe with that huge depth of experience in NZOs management team, they are this very moment looking were they can find another ailing Coal Miner to sink our money in.

[Beagle]

ROGER.
Maybe with that huge depth of experience in NZOs management team, they are this very moment looking were they can find another ailing Coal Miner to sink our money in.

Good Lord, I can hardly stand the such an"exciting" prospect, where's my heart pills LOL.

[Logen Ninefingers]

WHERE'S THE COAL?????? Whoever gave them the webs best communicators tab must have checked in every time they were making another grasp for more funds to keep them going. What a joke.

[geezy]

has any mine spent so much money and failed this badly?

[mouse]

Now, now. Courage! Only a little further and we shall all be in the broad uplands of having a wonderful working coal mine. No room for despair, think positively and stop bleating. It only needs a bit more cash and everything will be working well. Coal, a million tons a year will flow.

[Beagle]

Now, now. Courage! Only a little further and we shall all be in the broad uplands of having a wonderful working coal mine. No room for despair, think positively and stop bleating. It only needs a bit more cash and everything will be working well. Coal, a million tons a year will flow.

Trouble is Mouse we've heard that song so many times before from management its become a classic case of the boy who cried wolf, so until we actually see the wolf carrying 80,000 tons per month out with his own paws.....

[winner69]

Obviously the question about how much the future operating costs when product finally ramps up is a bit hard to answer

How can anybody assess what PRC is worth when production starts when there is no discussion about the costs .... they wouldn't be close to the price they get for the coal would it ... surely not

I ahven't seen any numbers except some old guess made by analysts

[dsurf]

Obviously the question about how much the future operating costs when product finally ramps up is a bit hard to answer

How can anybody assess what PRC is worth when production starts when there is no discussion about the costs .... they wouldn't be close to the price they get for the coal would it ... surely not

I ahven't seen any numbers except some old guess made by analysts

I am happy to make a guess. The original cost was approx $50 tonne years ago when the transport network was put in place. Given that was based on hydro mining & not the beast etc the current cost per tonne is probably about $100 per tonne, giving a margin of $120? per tonne - still very good. I expect the long run cost per tonne to be about $75 per tonne - again giving a huge margin thanks to India & China & FA to do with PRC. Still something needs to work in PRC's favour.

[Balance]

Funny how the diehard Pikers have gone all quiet ..... finally giving up?

[777]

Funny how the diehard Pikers have gone all quiet ..... finally giving up?

No. Just bored with the negativity.

[Balance]

No. Just bored with the negativity.

You are so right there.

Nothing but negatives from PRC in 3 years.

Nothing but bs from the company and management.

Nothing but delays.

Nothing but cost blowouts.

Nothing but capital raising.

And nothing but abuse from the diehard Pikers to those who dare question PRC and management.

I remember with particular fondness one of the diehard Piker relaying the message from PRC that there WILL BE NO MORE CAPITAL RAISING after he met management in 2009! Such undying belief and devotion - Pol Pot would be envious.

PS. Nothing but positives though from PRC if you choose to believe their PR releases!

[Logen Ninefingers]

Now, now. Courage! Only a little further and we shall all be in the broad uplands of having a wonderful working coal mine. No room for despair, think positively and stop bleating. It only needs a bit more cash and everything will be working well. Coal, a million tons a year will flow.

Wonderful dry humour here. LOL - I take my hat off to you. Your brilliant over-the-top parody of the kinds of comments die-hard Pikers make, with their blind optimism sometimes resembling a religious cult, just about made me cry with laughter. Well done sir.

[bung5]

Anyone have any idea of how much coal is stockpiled for the third shipment?

[Hoop]

Funny how the diehard Pikers have gone all quiet ..... finally giving up?

Nah..don't want to gate-crash the negative rampers party they are doing such a good job.....

Balance ....is it time to stop selling and start buying?

[Balance]

Nah..don't want to gate-crash the negative rampers party they are doing such a good job.....

Balance ....is it time to stop selling and start buying?

Negative rampers? Please give yourself a break and get real - you do not need down rampers with PRC - you just need PRC.

[Hoop]

Negative rampers? Please give yourself a break and get real - you do not need down rampers with PRC - you just need PRC.
:):)
True..
We use to have a positive ramper CEO but he's gone.

[Logen Ninefingers]

Why aren't the people trying to pump up Pike's tyres after every new blow out reffered to as deluded or scheming 'up-rampers'??? Surely a lot of the 'positive' (yet detached from reality) comments could be part of an agenda by these 'nice guy' 'positive' posters to get newbies to buy their shares in their dog mine at inflated prices??? Why is it that when you tell the truth about Pike you are immediately labelled as a "negative down-ramper"????
It's a bunch of b.s. that telling the truth about Pike River Coal is seen as the big no-no. This is a project which was supposed to go from start to full production on $75 million, but instead has become an expensive & unproductive joke.

[BWR]

Monkey Poms has expressed some opinions which need to be addressed, namely that "at 1% Ash, plus a premiuim penalty, is a gift to NZOG."

NZOG if they take up their option, will be purchasing coal from Pike River on the same basis as any other customer.

They will not be receiving any special deal, and consequently will not have the opportunity to arbitrage the coal they contract to take, as is being implied. Monkey Poms seems to be basing his opinion on a view that mid range ash coal would be sold at the same price as low ash, and this is not correct. Also that because Pike River's coal is lower ash than other equivalent coals that it will still be at a premium or the same price to the market anywhere from 1% to 8% ash. That is also not correct - every percentage point change represents a change in value to the purchaser who is most likely going to blend the low ash coal with higher ash content coal, purchased say from Australia, to produce a mid-range ash product. The Japanese steel mills, as an example, are considered by others in the trade to be masters at this.

Accordingly there is no logic, and in fact a marketing negative, in shifting the standard ash content from 1% to 5%, especially when all customers are buying on the same terms and conditions and price. And NZOG, if they become a purchaser of coal, will gain no advantage or disadvantage compared to any other Pike River customer.

[Beagle]

Why aren't the people trying to pump up Pike's tyres after every new blow out reffered to as deluded or scheming 'up-rampers'??? Surely a lot of the 'positive' (yet detached from reality) comments could be part of an agenda by these 'nice guy' 'positive' posters to get newbies to buy their shares in their dog mine at inflated prices??? Why is it that when you tell the truth about Pike you are immediately labelled as a "negative down-ramper"????
It's a bunch of b.s. that telling the truth about Pike River Coal is seen as the big no-no. This is a project which was supposed to go from start to full production on $75 million, but instead has become an expensive & unproductive joke.

And the sickest part of the joke was the $7,500 bonus payments to all mine workers for extracting a whopping great 1000 tons of coal via hydro "production", this from a company that's repeatably on its knees for more cash....go figure

[dsurf]

Excess negativiity usually means a good time to buy.

[Logen Ninefingers]

Excess negativiity usually means a good time to buy.

Excess negativity???? What about an accurate assessment of the situation. Sometimes it's not possible to be positive about a situation because the facts do not support a positive outlook. There are a whole lot of dogs on the NZSX that people are negative about, for very good reasons. No doubt you are buying up huge stakes in all of them.

[friedegg]

heres something negative,sell your options tomorrow

[Beagle]

Excess negativity???? What about an accurate assessment of the situation. Sometimes it's not possible to be positive about a situation because the facts do not support a positive outlook. There are a whole lot of dogs on the NZSX that people are negative about, for very good reasons. No doubt you are buying up huge stakes in all of them.

Couldn't agree more. Punters would be far better placed to have a good look at Pan Aust Limited code PNA - Very strong balance sheet, strongly rising profits, rapidly expanding production, huge resource expansion potential, strong cash flows, low debt, proven management...just kicking arse and taking names and basically doing all the things PRC are not !! 78 cents Aussie is basically the same value as PRC here and I'd bet my last dollar which company will be worth more down the track.

[RenHoek]

heres something negative,sell your options tomorrow

Why has so many options been off loaded this week? Just before the shareholders meeting?
Expecting bad news at the meeting?
Surely PRC management will have some good news saved up to help fight off the lynch mob....

[friedegg]

Why has so many options been off loaded this week? Just before the shareholders meeting?
Expecting bad news at the meeting?
Surely PRC management will have some good news saved up to help fight off the lynch mob....

some have woken up thats why,even at 6.5cents your still paying a blue sky premium for an option ending in 4 months when the head share is some 25-30% behind strike price,unbelivable
i would say youd have balls at 1cent per option,6.5cents is throwing your money away

[RenHoek]

some have woken up thats why,even at 6.5cents your still paying a blue sky premium for an option ending in 4 months when the head share is some 25-30% behind strike price,unbelivable
i would say youd have balls at 1cent per option,6.5cents is throwing your money away
They may extend the options. Or do another rights issue.... May be worth a punt....?

[friedegg]

They may extend the options. Or do another rights issue.... May be worth a punt....?
"they may" is the entire problem of prc.when you see a lot of "they haves" is when theyed be worth investing in,options are a gamble at best and remember you really lose a month because theres always a panic in the last month on the head shares being downsold to fund the options conversion,mind you in this case i cant see that happening

[Balance]

Why has so many options been off loaded this week? Just before the shareholders meeting?
Expecting bad news at the meeting?
Surely PRC management will have some good news saved up to help fight off the lynch mob....

Lynch mob?

No - the diehard Pikers will be there praising the directors and management and hoping like hell that nobody notices what a screwed-up incompetent bunch they are.

[Beagle]

some have woken up thats why,even at 6.5cents your still paying a blue sky premium for an option ending in 4 months when the head share is some 25-30% behind strike price,unbelivable
i would say youd have balls at 1cent per option,6.5cents is throwing your money away

I called the options worthless a couple of weeks ago when they were in the mid teens.

I think people buying now are basically punting that PRC will extend them and punting that PRC will be able to achieve their revised production targets....they're either really brave or completly stupid...read my previous posts, I think I've made it pretty clear which camp I think they're in.

In my opinion PRC will probably have no option but to extend them otherwise no one will excercise them and PRC will not get the further capital it so DESPERATLY NEEDS. So I think the first point regarding extension of time is almost a given, but whether they can meet their production targets, well what can I say...that's when you need the religious fervour of the fundamentalists to maintain the faith....(you can put me formly in the doubting Thomas department, I'll beleive it when I see it.

My real concern, is how the appallingly woeful performance of PRC affects my investment in NZO.
Anyone care to comment of how seriously affected NZO would be if this mine fails ?

[Baddarcy]

I called the options worthless a couple of weeks ago when they were in the mid teens.

I think people buying now are basically punting that PRC will extend them and punting that PRC will be able to achieve their revised production targets....they're either really brave or completly stupid...read my previous posts, I think I've made it pretty clear which camp I think they're in.

They most probably will hvae to extend them otherwise no one will excercise them and PRC will not get the further capital it so DESPERATLY NEEDS.

My only concern now, and its a very serious one, is how PRC affects my investment in NZO.

I would be a bit careful agreeing with a poster than can't read a calendar personally Roger :-)

I think Fried egg might find on closer inspection the options have 5 months and a half months to run.... not 4 months as he has stated.

[dsurf]

By excess negativity I mean the domination of negative posts versus positive. It has been a very good contrary indicator for me. When the diehards / mushrooms are quiet the SP has usually fallen. After falling for a period of time the "Cave is empty / falling in" brigade become increasingly confident and slag everything with great gusto convinced they are right. This is my buy signal. It is firing. Bought at 99c. Will sell at $1.10. See you then.

[RenHoek]

By excess negativity I mean the domination of negative posts versus positive. It has been a very good contrary indicator for me. When the diehards / mushrooms are quiet the SP has usually fallen. After falling for a period of time the "Cave is empty / falling in" brigade become increasingly confident and slag everything with great gusto convinced they are right. This is my buy signal. It is firing. Bought at 99c. Will sell at $1.10. See you then.

Still buying in now?
Not worried by this...?



Pike River is also evaluating revised funding requirements, including
repayment of the New Zealand Oil & Gas short-term facility due in December.
Discussions are underway with various parties, with further announcements
expected during November 2010, which will include details of the financial
impact of these developments.


I'm going to wait till the new year to buy back in. Once they've got through the financial impact of the last 6 months.
But I am curious as to what information is given out on Monday. As I've said in a previous post, I'm sure PRC management have some good information saved up to help fight off the lynch mob...

[Balance]

By excess negativity I mean the domination of negative posts versus positive. It has been a very good contrary indicator for me. When the diehards / mushrooms are quiet the SP has usually fallen. After falling for a period of time the "Cave is empty / falling in" brigade become increasingly confident and slag everything with great gusto convinced they are right. This is my buy signal. It is firing. Bought at 99c. Will sell at $1.10. See you then.

Watch the sp action today.

PRC's sp in the past has an uncanny ability to tell you what is in store.

If the coal is there, you have no worries - coal buyers will happily fund the supply and stock for a discounted sum.

So - is the coal there?

[neopoleII]

a cheap webcam on the coal stack could answer all the questions.
i wonder what the boys at blackpool pub are saying?..... oh forgot.... hush money has been paid....... i mean bonus has been given.

[Baddarcy]

If the coal is there, you have no worries - coal buyers will happily fund the supply and stock for a discounted sum.

So - is the coal there?

Thats the $64,000 question really isn't it !!! I will have the answer for you on Monday when i take my beady eyes down there to see for myself.

[Beagle]

Thats the $64,000 question really isn't it !!! I will have the answer for you on Monday when i take my beady eyes down there to see for myself.

Four months or five and a half makes no difference with this company....BTW I called the stock at $1.22 a sell a while back, when everyone else thought they were going ballistic and the options in the late teens the same, just look at the prices now !!

dsurf - suggest you bring up a share price chart over the last two months and after studying that and seeing there's a clear break to the downside, have a look at the relative buy-sell depth, this company appears almost in freefall at 96 cents a few minutes ago, which tends to indicate there's little in the way of good news on Monday, if any. "Good luck" with you recent purchase at 99 cents, I'm soooo happy I sold out recently. If and that's a big "IF" they can start to make an impression on actually meeting some of their targets I might be interested in buying back in at around 80 cents, no hurry, they have to prove themselves first and I for one won't be holding my breath.

[BWR]

Roger has commented: "I think people buying now are basically punting that PRC will extend them ........." and: "In my opinion PRC will probably have no option but to extend them......." .

In both instances he is talking about the 2011 Options.

Just so everyone is aware, under the current listing rules options cannot be extended.

[Monkey Poms]

Monkey Poms has expressed some opinions which need to be addressed, namely that "at 1% Ash, plus a premiuim penalty, is a gift to NZOG."

NZOG if they take up their option, will be purchasing coal from Pike River on the same basis as any other customer.

They will not be receiving any special deal, and consequently will not have the opportunity to arbitrage the coal they contract to take, as is being implied. Monkey Poms seems to be basing his opinion on a view that mid range ash coal would be sold at the same price as low ash, and this is not correct. Also that because Pike River's coal is lower ash than other equivalent coals that it will still be at a premium or the same price to the market anywhere from 1% to 8% ash. That is also not correct - every percentage point change represents a change in value to the purchaser who is most likely going to blend the low ash coal with higher ash content coal, purchased say from Australia, to produce a mid-range ash product. The Japanese steel mills, as an example, are considered by others in the trade to be masters at this.

Accordingly there is no logic, and in fact a marketing negative, in shifting the standard ash content from 1% to 5%, especially when all customers are buying on the same terms and conditions and price. And NZOG, if they become a purchaser of coal, will gain no advantage or disadvantage compared to any other Pike River customer.

I think we need a reality check here. Due to the method by which Pike mine coal then pump it down and along a pipeline a couple
of kilometers to be washed, you are going to create a large amount of very fine coal. This will be rejected by the coal washer and
end up as a coal slurry. Over time the slurry will partially dry out, ash content around 18%.
Pike will have to blend this inferior coal with 1% coal raising the ash level.
If this is not done, over a period of time the level of coal slurry on site would be unacceptable to the environmental agencies
and they may close the mine down.This of course will not happen, PW said he will raise the ash level for Pike coal sales
When I purchased my shares in Pike, I was under the impression that Pike's coal would be sold at a premium price, over
the Queensland benchmark price. My post (7097) showed a copy of the proposed coal option agreement between PRC and
NZOG. Correct me if I'm wrong, but there is no mention whatsoever of NZOG paying any sort of a premium for Pike coal.
Is this fair? Comparing the Saraji coking coal, mid-ash 10%, to PRC coking coal, ash 1% we will work the equation out.
Based on FOB price of US$ 200 per tonne.
Saraji coal sold basis, 10% ash, penalty to apply - US$ 1.5 plus or minus on a pro rata base of 10% ash.

PRC coal sold basis, 1% ash, penalty to apply - US$ 1.5 per percentage point over base of 1% ash.

Assume each cargo comes out at load port analysis 1% ash for Pike and 5% ash for Saraji

Invoices would be made out as follows:
Saraji - load port analysis 5% ash, 5 points below base - 5 x US$ 1.5 = US$ 7.5 x 60,000 tonnes = US$ 450,000
bill of laden = 60,000 tonnes x US$ 200 per tonne = US$ 12,000,000
Invoice total US$ 12,450,000
================================================== ================================================== ===============
PRC - load port analysis 1% ash, no penalty
bill of laden = 60,000 tonnes x US$ 200 = invoice total US$ 12,000,00
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Like for like, Pike should have either a US$ 7.5 premium over Queensland mid-ash coking coals.
The contract price for PRC should be based on 5% ash. If not, who is being short-changed?
How did Saraji get their ash level down from 10% to 5%? Maybe they didn't blend any coal
slurry into it.

I'm still one of the true believers in this mine. Not so sure about the independent directors at the moment.
In fact, I'm more of a believer than Mouse.
(I'm going to take some stick for that one) :)

Monkey Poms

[winner69]

good post monkey ..... OK they get about US$200 a tonne ....... what still no answers/indication as to production costs .... hope it is not US$200 a tonne

Consensus seems to be about NZ$100 a tonne but we know all about estimates etc .... anybody really have any idea what production costs might be when the stuff actually does come put in decent quantities

[Baddarcy]

Roger has commented: "I think people buying now are basically punting that PRC will extend them ........." and: "In my opinion PRC will probably have no option but to extend them......." .

In both instances he is talking about the 2011 Options.

Just so everyone is aware, under the current listing rules options cannot be extended.

They could replace them with new options thou i suspect?

[Beagle]

NZO have about 16 or 17 million options from memory.....

[Mr Tommy]

Watch the sp action today.

PRC's sp in the past has an uncanny ability to tell you what is in store.

If the coal is there, you have no worries - coal buyers will happily fund the supply and stock for a discounted sum.

So - is the coal there?

Well SP has dropped to 95c, and I still dont know if the coal is there. I think it might be hiding under a hill.

[manxman]

Well SP has dropped to 95c, and I still dont know if the coal is there. I think it might be hiding under a hill.

PW isn't going to say anything until there is a shipment sitting ex the CPP/Ikamatua. There's just been too much borax chucked about.

GW would have kept the shareprice up with useful progress reports. Now he's not here to whistle into the wind, the share price has hit a graben.

All things come to he who waits. (and waits... )

[swissboy]

On the very next working day we will have some s/h very happy and some with regrets. I must admit I am getting worried with holding all my PRC plus options plus NZO.

[Balance]

On the very next working day we will have some s/h very happy and some with regrets. I must admit I am getting worried with holding all my PRC plus options plus NZO.

Problem with many in this forum is that they let the sp form their opinion of the company.

How about letting your opinion of the company form your view of what the sp should be?

Trust me, you will feel happier for it.

[Traderx]

Anyone got any view on whats going on technically speaking? Phaedrus do you read this thread?

Cheers

[fabs]

Will take some miraculous announcement, on or before Monday to convince me that they reach 320 -360000 t
by the end of F/Y, total output so far being 20000 t in 5 months.
Probably reduce present 5 day 40hr week to 35hr to get there quicker, maybe more bonus payments needed.
Just as well NZO have deep pockets.

[sheepy]

The thing that annoys me is the seven dwarfs had a fully functioning coal mine, underground too. Maybe once the hobbit is finished we can get a few down here. We might need more than seven tho. Options must be extended, nzo wants their coal option extended because it should have being fully functioning a year ago or probably more. I think its the same with options, they have being brought and sold on the promise that the coal would be flowing out of the mine at the start of 10. If they let them lapse their will be a lot of pi..ed off people. 5 day week, what a frigin joke, wonder if they shut down for 3 weeks at christmas. And will all the good little workers get a christmas bonus.

[Balance]

The thing that annoys me is the seven dwarfs had a fully functioning coal mine, underground too. Maybe once the hobbit is finished we can get a few down here. We might need more than seven tho. Options must be extended, nzo wants their coal option extended because it should have being fully functioning a year ago or probably more. I think its the same with options, they have being brought and sold on the promise that the coal would be flowing out of the mine at the start of 10. If they let them lapse their will be a lot of pi..ed off people. 5 day week, what a frigin joke, wonder if they shut down for 3 weeks at christmas. And will all the good little workers get a christmas bonus.

Why the aggro now?

Where were the cries of indignation and calls for accountability in the last 2 years especially as PRC directors and management incompetently led investors astray?

[J R Ewing]

The thing that annoys me is the seven dwarfs had a fully functioning coal mine, underground too. Maybe once the hobbit is finished we can get a few down here. We might need more than seven tho. Options must be extended, nzo wants their coal option extended because it should have being fully functioning a year ago or probably more. I think its the same with options, they have being brought and sold on the promise that the coal would be flowing out of the mine at the start of 10. If they let them lapse their will be a lot of pi..ed off people. 5 day week, what a frigin joke, wonder if they shut down for 3 weeks at christmas. And will all the good little workers get a christmas bonus.

I think "sold on the promise" is an exaggeration. "Bought in the expectation of" is more like it, and the risk that the headshare might not make it past the excercise price was always a real risk.

[mouse]

Well SP has dropped to 95c, and I still dont know if the coal is there. I think it might be hiding under a hill.

Should we all turn up to the AGM this Monday dressed in boiler suits with picks and shovels to help them out? Share price Down to 95 cents and dropping. But that is madness. The coal is there. We have the ABM20 that can get out the coal and another ABM20 for delivery January 2011? I am still confident and wonder if I should buy some more shares. At 95cents they are a steal, unless they go down more! Where is the bottom of a coal mine?

[friedegg]

2 questions i would ask at the agm...
what was the total cost of the bonus to the workers,and just what positive they achieved to justify this?
are your sausage rolls for the shareholders on loan from the nzo agm at what % interest

[peat]

Anyone got any view on whats going on technically speaking?

I am going to take the liberty to place my personal technical view on this. It is not investment advice ;+)

What we have is a classic Elliot Wave pattern fully played out - five waves up, with the third on the way up subdividing into its own five wave pattern on the smaller scale perfectly, with each fourth of those patterns triangular.
And three waves down - a,b,and c. The three waves down form a perfect bullish gartly with wave a completing at the 61.8% and wave c at the 76.4% retracement of the upward impulsive leg. C waves usually considered painful and of course must be so, enough to destroy optimism before another impulsive move can begin.
So, the speculative take on this would be to take a long position now (risky) with a stop below 85 on a daily close - price may fall hard if it was to break this level. So 10-12 c is at stake following this strategy and of course the money management then determines the size of the position. Or the less risky way would be to wait for a one - two upward pattern to form and then buy at the estimated bottom of two (or even less risky when 3 breaks the high of 1), with a stop at the (presumed) low now approx 94.

All of course in my humble opinion and not to be taken as a recommendation or encouragement for anyone else to take any position. This post is merely for the record and I thank Traderx for asking the question as it inspired me to look harder at the chart and take the time to do this analysis which I hadnt done already notwithstanding the fact that I already have a small stake purchased at this level. (So I wont be buying any more). It is after all a risky investment so should remain a low percentage of ones funds.

Apologies for the large chart but if its smaller you cant read the labels. Edit: I just noticed the 5 label at the top should be black not green (the green count is the subdivision of wave 3).

[the machine]

peat thanks for the chart and your views

my take on pike is that they have gone ultra conservative - like under promise and over deliver

am annoyed that I paid 86c au for my latest 30,000 shares but expect sp will recover quicksmart

to me pike is a longterm cash cow, trouble is we need it to feed in shorterm

my spare $ tied up elsewhere - SER and KAS, otherwise would buy another $100k cheap pikies


m

[Monkey Poms]

good post monkey ..... OK they get about US$200 a tonne ....... what still no answers/indication as to production costs .... hope it is not US$200 a tonne

Consensus seems to be about NZ$100 a tonne but we know all about estimates etc .... anybody really have any idea what production costs might be when the stuff actually does come put in decent quantities

Hi Winner. My guess at putting some sort of number to the running cost of operating the mine: at present due to the problems
Pike have with machinery, it will seem that money is being poured down a black hole, until the development work and the fine
tuning of the Hydro equipment comes on stream. ( Hope I am wrong ). It may take longer than I originally thought.
There is the high cost of employing a lot men, some whom are underemployed, waiting for the day we start to produce coal
at a constant and reasonable rate.
My guess is one thousand tonnes produced per day will more than cover the operating cost, if we can get anywhere near to the target
of 3000 tonnes per day Pike can expect to pay its loans off very quickly. I think the target tonnage is achievable.

Winner - Shareholders have paid through the nose for PRC's directors' inexperience who seem to be all from the same mould.
This is a coal mine we are talking about, I would have expected to see a more balanced team of directors,(eg. people who were
not born with silver spoons in their mouths and who are quick to learn).
With a couple of men who have worked their way upwards, let loose they would show Piker's how to reduce the future
costs of running our coal mine.

Monkey Poms.

[Sideshow Bob]

I might have to wander along Monday.....

[brucey09]

Hola Senors
At agm would someone find exactly why Ward leave. thankyou

[rainey]

Id have thought that Wards demise is fairly obvious, failing to deliver on promises. The very fact that they paid bonuses to even get the ball rolling tells me there is something radically wrong in the management structure.

[manxman]

Hola Senors
At agm would someone find exactly why Ward leave. thankyou

The same reason all the independent directors resigned two weeks before the prospectus was due out. They wanted to spend more time with their cats.
GW and his messages of good cheer kept the share price afloat when logically it should have disappeared.
If it had been known at the time of the IPO the true time and cost to get to the coal, Pike River would never have started.
As Napoleon used to say when evaluating a general - "is he lucky?"
You could fart in church and still expect better luck than GW brought with him. BUT - we have a coal mine.

[Casa del Energia]

CEOs speech... Thoughts anyone?

[Mr Tommy]

So next month for the 3rd shipment, but a decent size.

"We have a sales contract in place for 60,000 tonnes at 3% ash for the end of the year"

[swissboy]

Yes I think it's all happening as per revised forecast. Some surprise that the shareprice reacted very little.60kt must mean some huge pile at Coal prep already. Looking forward to actual reports from those attending the AGM

[RenHoek]

CEOs speech... Thoughts anyone?

"...The downgrade in forecast production has, naturally, necessitated a review of
the company's financial requirements and an announcement detailing these
plans will be made shortly..."

I still find this very curious.
My guess is that they'll sell another coal buying option to a large company. (eg NZOG ).

Is it possible they may come back to investors for more money?
eg, they could do another rights issue like they did in May. Or somehow make use of the options...? eg issue OB's? for a small price?

Thoughts?
Thanks!

[Casa del Energia]

So next month for the 3rd shipment, but a decent size.

"We have a sales contract in place for 60,000 tonnes at 3% ash for the end of the year"

Well, hopefully, 60Kt per month by June quarter (I assume quarter beginning) does imply ramping up is on already. Mr T - any trains scheduled for Ika-thingie yet?
I am a little disappointed that the sp hasn't budged - but not surprised - general market conditions are in the toilet again for all the usual reasons.

[bung5]

My guess is that they'll sell another coal buying option to a large company. (eg NZOG ).



Then don't have any more contracts to sell. NZO already has the contract to buy the remainder of coal not in contract for the life of the mine.

[brucey09]

maybe nzo give a short loan

[Casa del Energia]

"...The downgrade in forecast production has, naturally, necessitated a review of
the company's financial requirements and an announcement detailing these
plans will be made shortly..."

I still find this very curious.
My guess is that they'll sell another coal buying option to a large company. (eg NZOG ).

Is it possible they may come back to investors for more money?
eg, they could do another rights issue like they did in May. Or somehow make use of the options...? eg issue OB's? for a small price?

Thoughts?
Thanks!

My hope would be that they set up a bank facility (or similar) to cover operations from here to (say) at least
mid 2012 - the ad-hoc obtaining of cash loans from quasi parent companies is not a good long term solution. And judging by the tone of the comments - it seems that an in depth finance plan is indeed on the drawing board.

As for coming back to investor for more money . . I'd be a bit annoyed if they issued more scrip - we all took a risk on the original and to have it diluted at this stage would not be optimal from my position. I'd prefer they took on debt and expense the interest. Besides - I've returned to my usual financial setting - - flat broke and nearly destitute.

[fabs]

Yes one would certainly see the s/p move by the time that end of year tonnage leaves, will definitely jump if the next same size quantity follows 5-6 weeks later.
In the meantime market sentiment a bit like once bitten trice shy
May have to fumble around in my wine cellar for some very dusty bottles of bubbly with PRC written on it, can always crack em on N/Y eve if PRC don't come to the party.

[Casa del Energia]

Yes one would certainly see the s/p move by the time that end of year tonnage leaves, will definitely jump if the next same size quantity follows 5-6 weeks later.
In the meantime market sentiment a bit like once bitten trice shy
May have to fumble around in my wine cellar for some very dusty bottles of bubbly with PRC written on it, can always crack em on N/Y eve if PRC don't come to the party.

Nice thought - but since it takes a dividend stream to be able to afford something that will cellar for the decade it appears to be taking - I will have to settle for a bottle of Cold Duck from the Ultra Cheap and Nasty Liquor outlet.

[Traderx]

Thought the CEO's address was good. Convinced me.

Long small amt @ 96c

[Mark Martin]

Yes I think it's all happening as per revised forecast. Some surprise that the shareprice reacted very little.60kt must mean some huge pile at Coal prep already. Looking forward to actual reports from those attending the AGM

Looks like about 20kt to my untrained eye on the ground (washer plant and Ikamatua) and the suggestion from PW at the meeting that 60kt will be leaving Lyttleton around xmas/early new year. So you would have to guess 1000 tonne per day produced from now until then. Peter did a good job at the meeting, not many questions from the floor!

[Mark Martin]

2 questions i would ask at the agm...
what was the total cost of the bonus to the workers,and just what positive they achieved to justify this?
are your sausage rolls for the shareholders on loan from the nzo agm at what % interest

I asked about the payment ($7500.00) at the meeting. To answer your question, PW stated that it was money well spent as it got the job done quicker and with more enthusiasm and will help retain staff longer, the payments will be made in December and has been allowed for in their budgets. No sausage rolls, but the little mince pies were good, the Blackball salami even better

[Balance]

Hmmm - no gushing of enthusiasm as per usual after a PRC meeting from the die-hard Pikers.

Must be time to get in as they must be so so shell-shocked they have given up trying to shore up the sp or bash anyone who dares speak ill of their beloved PRC.

[dsurf]

Hmmm - no gushing of enthusiasm as per usual after a PRC meeting from the die-hard Pikers.

Must be time to get in as they must be so so shell-shocked they have given up trying to shore up the sp or bash anyone who dares speak ill of their beloved PRC.

It makes me dizzy to say this but you are on to it - eventually the growing FY revenue will wake up the papers to the fact that money can come into PRC from other sources than shareholders.

[Balance]

It makes me dizzy to say this but you are on to it - eventually the growing FY revenue will wake up the papers to the fact that money can come into PRC from other sources than shareholders.

I like it (in fact, love it) when the diehard Pikers finally give up. Capitulation by them means that PRC will finally be on the slow boat to recovery.

Nobody could have been as naive and as frightfully paranoid as they have been when it comes to ascertaining the true state of PRC over the last 3 years. Management was to be believed at any price and any criticisms were to be drowned out (to the point of personal abuse) by any means possible. You get what you ask for - incompetent management supported by an equally incompetent board.

[Hoop]

I asked about the payment ($7500.00) at the meeting. To answer your question, PW stated that it was money well spent as it got the job done quicker and with more enthusiasm and will help retain staff longer, the payments will be made in December and has been allowed for in their budgets. No sausage rolls, but the little mince pies were good, the Blackball salami even better

Thanks Mark for your 2 posts. Much Appreciated

[LJB]

I like it (in fact, love it) when the diehard Pikers finally give up. Capitulation by them means that PRC will finally be on the slow boat to recovery.

Nobody could have been as naive and as frightfully paranoid as they have been when it comes to ascertaining the true state of PRC over the last 3 years. Management was to be believed at any price and any criticisms were to be drowned out (to the point of personal abuse) by any means possible. You get what you ask for - incompetent management supported by an equally incompetent board.
Absolutely. What atrocious management to allow a ventilation shaft collapse. Incredible incompetence to allow mother nature to put a graben in the way. However, on the plus side, you have to give them credit for negotiating with God to shift the Canterbury earthquake away from the Buller region of the Alpine Fault onto some useless farmland near Christchurch.

[Monkey Poms]

I like it (in fact, love it) when the diehard Pikers finally give up. Capitulation by them means that PRC will finally be on the slow boat to recovery.

Nobody could have been as naive and as frightfully paranoid as they have been when it comes to ascertaining the true state of PRC over the last 3 years. Management was to be believed at any price and any criticisms were to be drowned out (to the point of personal abuse) by any means possible. You get what you ask for - incompetent management supported by an equally incompetent board.

Wish I was as clever as you Balance. Could you remind me again of how you managed to forecast Pike"s difficulties before they happened?
Also, the solutions you gave to management must have been a Godsend. :)

Monkey Poms

[Logen Ninefingers]

Absolutely. What atrocious management to allow a ventilation shaft collapse. Incredible incompetence to allow mother nature to put a graben in the way. However, on the plus side, you have to give them credit for negotiating with God to shift the Canterbury earthquake away from the Buller region of the Alpine Fault onto some useless farmland near Christchurch.

Your sarcasm is miss-placed. You build a ventilation shaft and reinforce it so it doesn't collapse. You do the necessary work beforehand so that you don't find a graben soon after you've begun to drill your mine tunnel. You hopeless die-hard Pikers don't get it: $75 million was obviously never going to be enough to get this mine up to full production, yet that was the figure touted and sold to the investors. Corners have been cut, things were done half-arsed, inferior and substandard equipment was purchased. And the current parlous state of affairs is the out-come.

[POSSUM THE CAT]

Monkey Poms others with sense did not get into PRC in the first place

[Logen Ninefingers]

Thought the CEO's address was good. Convinced me.

Long small amt @ 96c

Wow, you are easily convinced. The guy shows up with more of the same spin and propaganda that Pike have never delivered on, and that's good enough. Actions speak louder than words.

[Logen Ninefingers]

Looks like about 20kt to my untrained eye on the ground (washer plant and Ikamatua) and the suggestion from PW at the meeting that 60kt will be leaving Lyttleton around xmas/early new year. So you would have to guess 1000 tonne per day produced from now until then. Peter did a good job at the meeting, not many questions from the floor!

Translation: Next shipment in March 2011....(Die-hard Pikers will say Pike delivered on an 'early 2011' shipment, all is going swimmingly)....will be 20,000 tonnes.

[Logen Ninefingers]

Please find as follows an abridged version of the chairmans address, sticking to just the relevant facts covered and removing the spin and waffle.

ADDRESS: PRC: 2010 Annual Meeting - Chief Executive Address

Good afternoon ladies and gentlemen, and welcome.

......in February this year...The first export shipment, worth in excess of NZ$3 million, was a significant event for the company. Twenty thousand tonnes of our premium hard coking coal
was shipped from Port Lyttelton to Bedi Port in Gujarat, India, to one of our life-of-mine customers, Gujarat.

....the fact remained that the geological challenges we had been facing for some time, continued to have a negative impact on our production forecasts, affecting the rate of underground mine development and ultimately progression to full production. This, of course, has a roll-on effect and, net cash-flow is impacted. As a result, the company embarked on a $50 million capital raising exercise to provide working capital to help complete the underground mine development.

During this time, the company was very pleased to announce a major operational development: getting through the rock graben back into coal. However congested mining areas continued to hamper our ability to realize significant gains.

In September Pike River made its second export shipment of premium hard coking coal. This shipment was worth almost double our inaugural shipment and, again, went to Gujarat NRE. ... the panamax vessel (left) with approximately 21,000 tonnes of our coal. .... the second shipment was, overall, a month behind schedule, reflecting the difficulty in accurately forecasting the
production profile in these early stages of mine development. ....we needed to take steps to improve the mine's ability to reach its stated production target - which was, at the time, 620,000
tonnes of saleable coal for this year to 30 June 2011. With that in mind, we contracted additional mining equipment and labour as well as hiring additional engineering and mining staff. Perhaps the most critical step we took at this time was the decision to lease a large, reconditioned Sandvik ABM20 single pass continuous mining machine to boost underground capacity. As
well as some additional related equipment and taking on extra contract staff to work the machine, we are investing NZ$4 million in this area. ...two Waratah continuous miners (were) removed from the mine for overhaul and upgrade. We have previously talked of the wholly unreliable electric drives on these machines.

The lack of reliability and performance from these Waratah machines has been a major factor in this recent reforecast. In contrast, the ABM20 continuous miner has been a very reliable and
productive machine achieving development rates well beyond the other machines. (we) purchase(d) a second ABM20 which will be at the coal face early next year.

We've almost halved our forecasts for the 2011 year so they're now sitting at between 320,000 and 360,000 tonnes

It is regrettable that these issues took the gloss off a very significant milestone for Pike River: the commissioning of our hydro-mining equipment.

We expect to achieve full hydro system capacity in the June 2011 quarter at a production rate of around 60,000 tonnes of saleable coal per month and, from that point, continue to ramp up to a steady state by the December 2011 quarter when we expect average monthly production volumes to be around 80,000 tonnes going forward.

...during hydro-commissioning and ramp-up of production, we achieve a better product yield through the Coal Preparation Plant at slightly higher ash. We are therefore looking to
place our next shipment at this higher ash level. We have a sales contract in place for 60,000 tonnes at 3% ash for the end of the year.

[Traderx]

Wow, you are easily convinced. The guy shows up with more of the same spin and propaganda that Pike have never delivered on, and that's good enough. Actions speak louder than words.

Actions do speak louder than words and I look forward to those actions, the problem will be that share price then (when the actions are proven) will be a fair bit higher than now..

G Ward was proven to be over optimistic and maybe incompentant (or unlucky)

P Whittall though I'm prepared to give a chance.

The time to buy is when everyone else is selling (I hope!)

Cheers

[Hoop]

good post monkey ..... OK they get about US$200 a tonne ....... what still no answers/indication as to production costs .... hope it is not US$200 a tonne

Consensus seems to be about NZ$100 a tonne but we know all about estimates etc .... anybody really have any idea what production costs might be when the stuff actually does come put in decent quantities

Winner This was in the Shareholder briefing announced to the market today...this is the link (17 pages PDF) from PRC website
(http://www.pike.co.nz/files/presentations/Shareholder_Briefing_November_2010.pdf)

Pike River Cashflow Margins

Average Per Tonne at Steady State Estimate (NZ$)

Sales price (FOB)............................................. ........... 213

Less cash costs

Mining............................................ 69
Transport....................................... 40
Royalties and overheads ....................17
.................................................. ..............................126

Margin (pre interest, tax and depreciation)......................... 87

Assumptions:

1 Sales price is US $134 converted at NZD:USD 0.63 (broker consensus long term sales price and exchange rate).
2 Based on forecast annual saleable production averaging 1 million tonnes.
3 The mine does not yet have a full operating cost history.
4 Mining costs are based on budget. Transport costs are per the Solid Energy and TNL long term contracts, CPI adjusted.
5 Royalties are budgeted at NZ$2 per tonne and are payable to the Crown in accordance with the Crown Minerals Act 1991 .
Emissions Trading Scheme (carbon tax) is included under royalties and overheads at $5 per tonne.
6 Broker consensus cash costs range between NZ$111 and NZ$132 per tonne.
7 The figures above do not include sustaining capital expenditure

[fish]

Thanks for your posts Mark .
I am glad you asked about the payments-I suspect most of us feel that bonus payments are not indicated for anyone-be it bankers or miners when a company is short of funding . IMO an issue of a substantial quantity of shares to each worker when the mine is fully producing would have been a better incentive . A shout on the company every time a small milestone is reached would be in keeping with most nz workers

Did anyone ask questions about how much coal could be mined if a new resource consent was obtained ? The current projected 18 million tons out of a 58m ton resource seems too little . Is the fear that extracting more might cause some collapse on top of the ground and disturb a few snails ?
Was there any talk of obtaining new mining permits .
It looks to me as if the net annual earnings per share could be between 20 and 50 cents a share when in full production .If half is paid in dividends what plans have prc to do with the rest ?

[mouse]

You go to the AGM to eat sausage rolls etc. None on offer, but there were some very nice prawns. As you are munching, you wander around asking a few questions. For example, the 60,000 tonne shipment should get away mid-January, or late January at the latest. They hope to ship 66,000 tonnes. :cool:
The German machines that did not work. They were the correct machine to buy since the RBM20 machines did not exist in NZ. Pike could not be the first to import them, so Peter turned them down. What happened next is a bit of an interesting observation. The mine it appears has an incline of 1 in 4 So the German machines were not warranted to do the job. We got some clever Oz engineers to modify the things to go up hill. However, all the mines in Oz are flat! The modifications did not work, but bu**ered up the guarantee. The Oz company has ceased to exist. No one is responsible, or at least no one can be sued.:sleep:
Peter opposed the RBM20 being tried. THAT ONE ALSO DOES NOT WORK UP HILLS. So Peter was probably right. However, he said its nothing to do with me if it fails, and ordered one on trial. For 12 months. It worked!! :p UPHILL. We now have another RBM20 ordered for delivery in January? So it should be working by 1 February 2011. The new one is also second hand since it is a two year waiting list for new machines. There are service agents in NZ for the RBM20 and they are the same people who have rebuilt the machines in Oz. :) Plus two service engineers have been sent from NZ to Oz for training on servicing the RBM20s.
Next, I thought the coal was processed in the mine and then sent down the slurry pipes. Not so. Or more importantly the pipes are now going into the mine to the mining area. There are a quite a few pipes sitting down in the car park for that job.:)
We also have a mining underground mine manager in charge of getting the coal out. He has been with Pike for 8 weeks. He told me that the most beautiful sight in the world to him is a pile of coal from a working mine. This chap has very great experience in UK coal mines, some underground mines still exist there, and I have great confidence in him. :):):)
By the time I got back to the prawns, they had all gone. It is tough work asking questions. I was very disappointed that the tough questions were not asked at the AGM. Kiwi shareholders are far too polite. They even voted to give NZOG extended rights for coal.
I have not bought any options, I was given some when I bought extra shares and have just held the options. I talked about the situation with the options with one of the directors. They are embarrased. :( since the idea of the options was to extract cash happily from shareholders. But our cash is still wanted. So MY OWN VIEW is that the Directors will come up with something. My view is it may be partly paid shares. My second view is I would not buy more options on the opinion of a chap who could not even corner the market in Prawns.

[Logen Ninefingers]

You go to the AGM to eat sausage rolls etc. None on offer, but there were some very nice prawns. As you are munching, you wander around asking a few questions. For example, the 60,000 tonne shipment should get away mid-January, or late January at the latest. They hope to ship 66,000 tonnes. :cool:
The German machines that did not work. They were the correct machine to buy since the RBM20 machines did not exist in NZ. Pike could not be the first to import them, so Peter turned them down. What happened next is a bit of an interesting observation. The mine it appears has an incline of 1 in 4 So the German machines were not warranted to do the job. We got some clever Oz engineers to modify the things to go up hill. However, all the mines in Oz are flat! The modifications did not work, but bu**ered up the guarantee. The Oz company has ceased to exist. No one is responsible, or at least no one can be sued.:sleep:
Peter opposed the RBM20 being tried. THAT ONE ALSO DOES NOT WORK UP HILLS. So Peter was probably right. However, he said its nothing to do with me if it fails, and ordered one on trial. For 12 months. It worked!! :p UPHILL. We now have another RBM20 ordered for delivery in January? So it should be working by 1 February 2011. The new one is also second hand since it is a two year waiting list for new machines. There are service agents in NZ for the RBM20 and they are the same people who have rebuilt the machines in Oz. :) Plus two service engineers have been sent from NZ to Oz for training on servicing the RBM20s.
Next, I thought the coal was processed in the mine and then sent down the slurry pipes. Not so. Or more importantly the pipes are now going into the mine to the mining area. There are a quite a few pipes sitting down in the car park for that job.:)
We also have a mining underground mine manager in charge of getting the coal out. He has been with Pike for 8 weeks. He told me that the most beautiful sight in the world to him is a pile of coal from a working mine. This chap has very great experience in UK coal mines, some underground mines still exist there, and I have great confidence in him. :):):)
By the time I got back to the prawns, they had all gone. It is tough work asking questions. I was very disappointed that the tough questions were not asked at the AGM. Kiwi shareholders are far too polite. They even voted to give NZOG extended rights for coal.
I have not bought any options, I was given some when I bought extra shares and have just held the options. I talked about the situation with the options with one of the directors. They are embarrased. :( since the idea of the options was to extract cash happily from shareholders. But our cash is still wanted. So MY OWN VIEW is that the Directors will come up with something. My view is it may be partly paid shares. My second view is I would not buy more options on the opinion of a chap who could not even corner the market in Prawns.

Wow, so Peter Whittal totally opposed the machines that do work, and backed the ones that don't work. Great. Imagine where we'd be now if Whittal had elected to get the RMB20's in the first instance, and not the ones that "were not warranted to do the job".

"Pike could not be the first to import them, so Peter turned them down". What a spurious argument, what dunder-headed thinking.

[Bilo]

Winner This was in the Shareholder briefing announced to the market today...this is the link (17 pages PDF) from PRC website
(http://www.pike.co.nz/files/presentations/Shareholder_Briefing_November_2010.pdf)

Pike River Cashflow Margins

Average Per Tonne at Steady State Estimate (NZ$)

Sales price (FOB)............................................. ........... 213

1 Sales price is US $134 converted at NZD:USD 0.63 (broker consensus long term sales price and exchange rate).

I (and I suspect whoever sold down NZO and PRC up to the close) was very disappointed to see a reversion to this idiocy re the sale price of coal. Especially from the new CEO who finally gave a forecast as two numbers - a low and a high. For years we advocated that prices should be a range between high and low USD prices and high and low USD/NZD rates. And now we get a stupid USD price for coal at 60pc of current (USD200 plus) and a stupid exchange rate not within 10% of current (0.77) as a best guess - how naieve! Give us the range, high and low and maybe a most likely - but not a "broker" (those totally useless Bs) consensus as the best and last word. Brian where were you?

[RenHoek]

Hi guys.
I have a couple of items I'm curious about. And wondering if anyone at the AGM had a chance to ask any questions?

1st, the immediate cashflow issues, and the strategy PRC are going to take. PRC have indicated this clearly as a problem and that an announcement is imminent.
ie,


Pike River is also evaluating revised funding requirements, including
repayment of the New Zealand Oil & Gas short-term facility due in December.
Discussions are underway with various parties, with further announcements
expected during November 2010, which will include details of the financial
impact of these developments.

( and from Peters address )

...The downgrade in forecast production has, naturally, necessitated a review of
the company's financial requirements and an announcement detailing these
plans will be made shortly...Did anyone have a chance to ask any questions about this?

And 2nd, a biggie, the options!
Thanks Mouse for your input.
ie,

...I talked about the situation with the options with one of the directors. They are embarrased. :( since the idea of the options was to extract cash happily from shareholders. But our cash is still wanted....

Did anyone else get a chance to ask questions regarding the options at the AGM?
Any talk on the floor?
eg, The likelyhood of some OB's being issued for a different price or date? Or maybe another rights issue similar to May?


Is it possible that item 2 may become part of the solution to item 1?
Thanks all!
Ren

[Mark Martin]

[QUOTE=RenHoek;326164]Hi guys.
I have a couple of items I'm curious about. And wondering if anyone at the AGM had a chance to ask any questions?

John Dow did not seem keen on a lot of questions being asked, and cut the question/anwser time very short as he wanted to get on with "other business". I got one question in and got a good answer but I am sure there were a lot more people who wanted the chance to have their say.

[patrick]

Interesting Meeting
PW confident that systems in place can produce a million tonnes a year, if all goes well.I though he was impressive.
Head engineer came from solid energy 4 months ago. " better future"
New machine exceeding expectations.
60,000 shipment "late December, first week of the new year"
Answering a question re Options the chairman said the Board had not considered theposision of the holders of options, or extension but " the excersise date is a long way off"
I left feeling positive about prospects.

Dics: hold plenty of Options

[Logen Ninefingers]

[QUOTE=RenHoek;326164] John Dow did not seem keen on a lot of questions being asked, and cut the question/anwser time very short as he wanted to get on with "other business".

Disgraceful. I guess he was quaking in his boots about all the hard questions that were going to be asked, so he shut things down as soon as he could.

[Logen Ninefingers]

the chairman said the Board had not considered the position of the holders of options, or extension but " the excersise date is a long way off"


Why would the board consider the position of of option holders???? Or an extension????? The exercise date is such a long, long way off.....April 2035 isn't it?????
The weathers been so lovely that it's a better 'option' for them to hit the golf course than to deal with these kinds of matters.....

[Logen Ninefingers]

New machine exceeding expectations.


the RBM20 machines did not exist in NZ. Pike could not be the first to import them, so Peter turned them down.
Peter opposed the RBM20 being tried. he said its nothing to do with me if it fails, and ordered one on trial. For 12 months. It worked!!

When you have no expectations at all, any things an improvement!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! LOL.

[sheepy]

Pikes share price is about to plummet, just a prediction with latest news. Get out now and come back in at 80 cents.

[Hoop]

[QUOTE=RenHoek;326164]Hi guys.
I have a couple of items I'm curious about. And wondering if anyone at the AGM had a chance to ask any questions?

John Dow did not seem keen on a lot of questions being asked, and cut the question/anwser time very short as he wanted to get on with "other business". I got one question in and got a good answer but I am sure there were a lot more people who wanted the chance to have their say.

The owners of the company (shareholders) get their one constitutional "right" every year at question time (the AGM) to confront management face to face and ask questions and unless commercially sensitive to receive truthful answers. It is not managements "right" to cut the question/answer time short if people still want to ask questions, it is in fact unconstitutional ... the shareholders at this meeting should have demanded their "rights".

Its sad the management had this control over the shareholders at this AGM.... It seems from reading these posts that even with a new CEO the managements attitude towards its shareholders has not changed for the better....unanswered questions will not help the shareprice as investors will perceived it as risk factors. Idiotic behaviour really, considering they are cash strapped and want the shareprice up over 125 to exercise the options.

[LJB]

What latest news? Are you "in the know" about some news other than what was news a fortnight ago and got reworded for the AGM on Mon?

[Logen Ninefingers]

What latest news? Are you "in the know" about some news other than what was news a fortnight ago and got reworded for the AGM on Mon?

You gotta watch that guy....he's a negative down-ramper or summink like that.

Maybe there's some new news on NZ's best website......

[mouse]

Wow, so Peter Whittal totally opposed the machines that do work, and backed the ones that don't work. Great. Imagine where we'd be now if Whittal had elected to get the RMB20's in the first instance, and not the ones that "were not warranted to do the job".

"Pike could not be the first to import them, so Peter turned them down". What a spurious argument, what dunder-headed thinking.
I got told when I was 20 years old, 'Be not the first by whom the new is tried,
Nor yet the last to cast the old aside.'
It still holds true. It seems the RBM20 does the job without modification. Pike were very concerned if the RBM20 would work. So they didnt buy it. A lease for 12 months with the operators was the decision. Absolutely correct on both takes. Buy the first machine in NZ and you could be in major trouble. Peter said at the AGM that he was very happy to be proven wrong. You need to get a machine with a proven track record and maintenance facilities in NZ. We got stuck due to the mine layout with a 1 in 4 incline where the coal comes out.

[Logen Ninefingers]

[QUOTE=RenHoek;326164]John Dow did not seem keen on a lot of questions being asked, and cut the question/anwser time very short as he wanted to get on with "other business". I got one question in and got a good answer but I am sure there were a lot more people who wanted the chance to have their say.

You know, who's really cynical here. Is it the people who call PRC on the fact that they've never met a single target to date? Is it the Chairman for turning the meeting into a farce by curtailling the question time for PRC's own ends? Is it the CEO for all his spin when he's the guy that intially turned down the machines that are now doing the bizo in favour of the machines that crapped out completely? Is it our corporate betters who pocket huge salaries, promise the earth, then walk away with their dosh with the project under the cosh and no targets met? Is it those who continually preach the sermon of positive thinking because they've been told that that's the way to be successful in life, and they've given up free thought in their pursuit of money and the dreams that the corporates have sold to them? Is it the shareholders who staunchly defend one CEO right up to the day he walks, then make him the scapegoat with indecent haste while immediately transferring their undying loyalty to the new CEO and swallowing every word he says hook line and sinker?

[Traderx]

I see PRC was the number one net bought (buys vs sells proportion) share by Direct Broking clients in week ending 12/11 (up from number 10 the week before)

I guess that does raise the question are DB clients smarter or dumber than the rest of the market!?

Disc: Long PRC

[mouse]

[QUOTE=Mark Martin;326186]

Disgraceful. I guess he was quaking in his boots about all the hard questions that were going to be asked, so he shut things down as soon as he could.
I am not upset at all with the Directors actions. They were acting as Directors do. The problem I have is with the shareholders at the meeting. I do not hold many options. Those I hold I did not pay for. So what Pike does with the options does not affect me. What I was concerned about was the shareholders at the meeting. They refused to press any questions about options, only one question was asked about them from memory. If shareholders behave like that, and they did, then the Directors can rightly conclude that Prawns are more important than answers. They were quite delicious Prawns and I hope they are on the menu next year. Getting Prawns instead of an answer on the option situation is the responsibility of the shareholders, not the Directors.

[Logen Ninefingers]

I got told when I was 20 years old, 'Be not the first by whom the new is tried,
Nor yet the last to cast the old aside.'
It still holds true. It seems the RBM20 does the job without modification. Pike were very concerned if the RBM20 would work. So they didnt buy it. A lease for 12 months with the operators was the decision. Absolutely correct on both takes. Buy the first machine in NZ and you could be in major trouble. Peter said at the AGM that he was very happy to be proven wrong. You need to get a machine with a proven track record and maintenance facilities in NZ. We got stuck due to the mine layout with a 1 in 4 incline where the coal comes out.

Firstly, it's an ABM20, made by the Swedish firm Sandvik i.e. European excellence. Sandvik continuous miners are used around the world, including in the UK mines as Monkey Poms would know. The outstanding feature of the ABM 20 is its proven ability to simultaneously cut and bolt, and therefore dramatically increase development rates; first of its kind.
Waratah Engineering is a troubled Australian company that provides mining equipment primarily to the Australian industry. In 2009 they went into voluntary administration and were bought out by a Polish company.
I don't see why anyone would have any concerns about the ABM20's at any time. Do some research and you find that they are a proven excellent machine in all conditions. So no surprise at all that they are performing excellently right now for PRC. This 'first in NZ' b.s. as a reason for not buying the best in spurious.
PRC bought inferior equipment - and I'm intrigued as to the reason why; was it corner cutting or something worse - and that's bitten them.

[sheepy]

I just heard that they need double loan from nzo, more like 50 million. Because the coal is of such high standard, its too hard for the hydro, and not splitting as easily as anticipated. Expect more down grades. Shame but I am looking at a much lower entry point.

[Baddarcy]

Just got back to the big smoke after attending the AGM.

My reasons for going were simple, i needed to see the thing working and i needed to see piles of coal. I saw both, there was a decent pile of coal at Ikamatua and another few piles of it at the Prep Plant. I would have to say i thought it was more than 20kt that i saw but keep in mind i have no reason other than trying to imagine it all in a ships hold :-) There was also a steady stream of coal coming out of the Prep Plant too.

My negaitves from the meeting were as follows:

1) The questions - some of them were simply retarded, i almost clapped when the chariman cut of that supid old git who was having a crack about the ventilation shaft. Dude that was 2 years ago get over it !!
2) More about the questions - The chairman cutting off the question time was disappointing as i was one fo the ones that missed out, i was keen to hear more about the funding

3) Yes still more about the questions - I wasn't happy with the answer to the question about the options that the guy behind me asked. I thought the Chairman was very dismissive of the question

Positives
1) Hydro has just started goining 24 hours a day
2) PW seemed very happy to talk at length about anything the shareholders asked, i liked his attitute. It was in contrast to the Chariman who seemed to think he was just there to MC the event.

But the big positive for me was that i was one of the lucky ones whose name got picked out of a hat and got to go into the mine itself with Doug White. They took the group of us up to the Hydro Panel and i got to see the hydro in action. I can tell you i stuck my hand in the flume that comes out of the back of the guzzler and there was plenty of coal in the water that was heading out of the mine. People can say what they like, but i can tell you that hydro is working.

I also took a camera with me (not into the mine, they don't let you take anything electronic into the mine) and took a bunch of photos and some short videos of the prep plant and ikamatua so you can look at the pile of coal for yourselves.... as soon as i figure out how to upload them somewhere :-)

[Baddarcy]

First Video uploaded, sorry a bit jerkey :-)

Was taken at about 4.30pm on the way back to Greymouth.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Cih64ZImAFY

[Baddarcy]

Second video uploaded, kind of the same but filmed on the way in by my wife, so not so jerky :-)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ff69MfcWWuo

I also have a few photos but can't be bothered figuring out how to post them here, so if you want to see them send me a private message with your email address and i'll email them.

[Logen Ninefingers]

The machine was originally designed and manufactured by the Austrian company VOEST ALPINE Bergtechnik, who in the late 90s became part of SANDVIK´s Mining and Construction business. As a consequence of this process, the machine name was also changed to the new name “SANDVIK BOLTER MINER MB series”.
Starting in Australia, the machine concept soon was spread to other coal mining countries, such as USA, UK, South Africa and, more recently, China, Italy, Norway and CIS.
A total of 180 Bolter Miners have been delivered during these years.
The first SANDVIK Bolter Miner (then named “Voest Alpine Bolter Miner ABM20”) was introduced to the Coal Industry in 1991 at Tahmoor Colliery, Australia.
The introduction of Bolter Miner technology presented numerous challenges, including changing the established mining logistics of the non-simultaneous cut-and-bolt development cycle. The “ABM20” created a major change in the development process. By performing the tasks of “cutting” and “bolting” simultaneously (as opposed to sequentially with standard continuous miners), development rates were increased considerably.

[Logen Ninefingers]

Waratah are primarily a manufacturer of shuttle-cars, not continuous miners. Initial fabrication of the 2 Waratah continuous miners supplied to Pike took place in Germany.
Sandvik specialise in continuous miners.

The Waratah's were bought for $9 million total.
Leasing an ABM20 for 12 months is costing $4 million.

Did PRC buy inferior machines to try to cut costs?

[mouse]

As far as I understand it the idea was to mine coal by hydro. So the requirement was for a machine that would facilitate cutting the corridor both sides of the hydro panel. A small machine with a small cut would do. It was hydro mining, not RBM20 mining. Due to problems the target has changed a bit and we may get more coal from cutting the coal seam and less from hydro mining. I am sure that Pike made reasonable choices for equipment. But it was 'site unseen', since the mine was not open. There must have been a time-lag between ordering equipment and receiving it. The RBM20 wait is I understand to be two years. So Peter and Co had to make an educated guess. We are dealing with a black hole!
I thought there was between 30,000 and 40,000 tonnes of coal stockpiled. Both at Ikamatua and the mine. But that is a total guess.

The machine was originally designed and manufactured by the Austrian company VOEST ALPINE Bergtechnik, who in the late 90s became part of SANDVIK´s Mining and Construction business. As a consequence of this process, the machine name was also changed to the new name “SANDVIK BOLTER MINER MB series”.
Starting in Australia, the machine concept soon was spread to other coal mining countries, such as USA, UK, South Africa and, more recently, China, Italy, Norway and CIS.
A total of 180 Bolter Miners have been delivered during these years.
The first SANDVIK Bolter Miner (then named “Voest Alpine Bolter Miner ABM20”) was introduced to the Coal Industry in 1991 at Tahmoor Colliery, Australia.
The introduction of Bolter Miner technology presented numerous challenges, including changing the established mining logistics of the non-simultaneous cut-and-bolt development cycle. The “ABM20” created a major change in the development process. By performing the tasks of “cutting” and “bolting” simultaneously (as opposed to sequentially with standard continuous miners), development rates were increased considerably.

[swissboy]

Mouse your previous post ( They hope to ship 66000 T) That would equate to 44 Train loads. At one train per day they would need to start pretty soon although there seems to be a buildup of Engines in the South Island so perhaps they will eventually start with 2 sets of wagons per day. I hope so and will keep an eye on NZ Rail. As we all know they want to lift the shareprice so why not release some more updated information???

[Logen Ninefingers]

As far as I understand it the idea was to mine coal by hydro. So the requirement was for a machine that would facilitate cutting the corridor both sides of the hydro panel. A small machine with a small cut would do. It was hydro mining, not RBM20 mining. Due to problems the target has changed a bit and we may get more coal from cutting the coal seam and less from hydro mining. I am sure that Pike made reasonable choices for equipment. But it was 'site unseen', since the mine was not open. There must have been a time-lag between ordering equipment and receiving it. The RBM20 wait is I understand to be two years. So Peter and Co had to make an educated guess. We are dealing with a black hole!
I thought there was between 30,000 and 40,000 tonnes of coal stockpiled. Both at Ikamatua and the mine. But that is a total guess.

Mouse, it's an ABM20 for a starter. A loy of what you say is pure speculation and not grounded in any way in fact. Now you've said that the ABM20's could not be brought in because they would have been the first one's in NZ, and you've implied - without doing any research at all - that the Waratah continuous miners are the good old trusty machines & the ABM20's were some new untested equipment.
I've provided information about the history of the ABM20's and what countries they have been supplied to - all around the world as it happens.

Could you please answer some basic questions about Waratah continuous miners:
1/ When were these machines first imported into New Zealand, and who was using them here before Pike?
2/ How many Australian mines are using Waratah continuous miners? What countries do they export continuous miners to?
3/ If Waratah are continuous miner specialists, why would they need to get the machines fabricated in Germany?

[mouse]

I talked to the chap in charge of the coal process plant. He said that there is a partial problem with Christmas. Plus we have to get a ship to Japan to load the coal. Hence the dates are a bit open. Everyone seemed to be very confident of a shipment before the end of January. It could be much earlier, Pike do not want to promise and not deliver. The aim is for 60,000 tonnes, plus or minus 10%.

Mouse your previous post ( They hope to ship 66000 T) That would equate to 44 Train loads. At one train per day they would need to start pretty soon although there seems to be a buildup of Engines in the South Island so perhaps they will eventually start with 2 sets of wagons per day. I hope so and will keep an eye on NZ Rail. As we all know they want to lift the shareprice so why not release some more updated information???

[bung5]

"We are therefore looking to place our next shipment at this higher ash level. We have a sales contract in
place for 60,000 tonnes at 3% ash for the end of the year" PW

So some of the staff are saying end of Jan and PW saying for the end of the year?

[Bilo]

Thanks for your comments people. And the photos, although the coal piles disappointed.
Here are my thoughts taken from the Auckland meeting.

QUESTION TIME & LOTS OF IT
It isn’t a bad idea to have three separate presentations because if the answers aren’t complete at the first then you get another chance to phrase the question differently, and hopefully improve the completeness of the answer. Thank you for making yourselves available, JD, PW, and BR. All seemed confident that we will have a very good HCC mine shipping 1Mtpa, eventually.
THE PRICE FOR HCC AND PROJECTED PROFITABILITY
Everyone knows the number (the price received for our HCC NZD213) on the slide is just a number. We used a conservative average of the best forecasters known to us – brokers. They suggested that we use USD90 in the IPO and it is over USD200 now. Actually the exchange rate and the contract price for HCC exhibit huge variation a risk that shareholders should be prepared to shoulder. You wouldn’t suggest a hedging policy, would you? A consolation is that our experience is that the price of HCC and the AUD/USD exchange rate are linked because the Australians have such a big say in the HCC sea trades. No matter, we don’t expect to be producing at a cash positive level until mid 2011 and who knows what the accountant will make the net profit. That’s not for us to forecast, someone else who can’t be responsible for it should.
WORKING FIVE DAYS ON ROADWAY DEVELOPMENT
The question was asked about working 5 days on the roadway development. PW’s answer left a little to be desired “we were working 5 days went to 7days now maybe back to 5 because of training requirements but extra shifts being worked and we are hydro-mining, and we have to maintain the machines….”. A nice statement of the number of shifts worked and intended to be worked on each machine would have been less obfuscatory. If this is the rate determining step for HCC production then we might expect that it takes a priority over hydro and also that maintenance access is as required rather than as programmed. Some room for improvement is what I took away from this answer. The plant management need to understand The Theory of Constraints and take on some simple messages from Eli Goldratt’s “The Goal” and “It’s not Luck”.
PRCOAs ( they have been valued at over $15M to holders)
There was a question about the PRCOA’s and JD’s answer was a “well if you’ve got them you would be better off if you had sold them when they had value, we aren’t counting on the share price being high enough for them to convert, they were given to shareholders for free after all”. There was a complete mind block that shareholders expected the board to vary the terms despite being told it was illegal. Clearly the Board “wouldn’t feel bad of shareholders for not wanting to convert and pay us $80M at this time anyway. Actually Pike could use the capital, we are a bit short.”
(PS THE QUOTES AREN’T LITERAL JUST MY INTERPRETATION OF THE DISCUSSION)
The Board has not given enough thought to “how do we look after those of our original shareholders who were given the PRCOAs, took the hit to the share price for the capital dilution, stood by us for a couple of years through all the bad luck, how do we make our shareholders insanely rich?” – to borrow a quote from Richard Cottee ex Arrow Energy and now Nexus Energy. Instead: “well we aren’t counting on getting any capital from the option holders, stiff cheese to them that they will become worthless, they may have a strategic role to deter a takeover, we’ll survive somehow and anyway the Board is not factoring those funds into cash forecasts.
WATCH THIS SPACE – or should I suggest hold your PRCOAs – they are hardly worth cash after this latest round of presentation comments anyway. I don’t think the Board understand the damage they have done to their loyal shareholder base with their lazy attitude towards PRCOA investors (and hopefully their own future employment prospects). But what the heck why should invest and hold pay? Liquidity provided by traders is what we are here for now, so let’s look after them by duding our original investors. Shame.
The original intention behind these PRCOA options was to reward those who partook in the capital raising – it was not designed as a leveraged bet on success, that’s a derivative, CFD or index trade. PRCOAs should retain the intended reward, as did NZOG’s coal purchase option, but it looks like original investors will be twice duded.
I suggest that every PRCOA holder should vote against every current board-member’s re-election if the options do not do a Phoenix, and rise again from their flames at a very favourable conversion ratio to reward shareholders who stood by PRC in the original capital raisings, no matter if some current holders aren’t the same persons, these rights are attached until April 2011.
PS I am stupid enough to hold options and am NOT consoled by the fact that I am not alone on the share registry for PRC and PRCOA.
Most of the other questions and answers at the Auckland meeting were stuff most of us have heard before.

[Monkey Poms]

Monkey Poms others with sense did not get into PRC in the first place

Possum the cat. I had the sense to get into PRC, I am up 29.6820% (exchange rate gain ) ;)

Monkey Poms

[Monkey Poms]

Unknowingly your politicians and planning authorities would have had a big influence on the decision by the PRC board of directors on what type of mining equipment to purchase and operate.

The ridiculous decision taken by them to allow planning consent on the basis PRC leave 42,000,000 tonne of prime coking coal in the ground, with a value in the region of ELEVEN BILLION NZ DOLLARS.

Unbelievable. I can not think of one country in the developed world that would allow this to happen, the thought of NZ paying their way in the world, obviousley means nothing to them.

If we had consent, from the start, to extract all the coal that could be safely mined, PW may have chosen the longwall method of mining, a more expensive method to set up, twice the output of hydro mining.

I know that at one time management would have considerd longwall mining, a good few years ago forum poster Mark Martin was sent down to the proposed mine site to cost & design plans for a conveyor system which would have been required should the longwall method have been chosen.

How meany of you guys, galloping along a road, on the way to the Blackball, notice if the top of a small length of Paparoa mountain shrank by three metres? OK there is always one, but after half a dozen of NZ's finest, i'll bet you don't notice on the way back.

Monkey Poms.

Happy with Hydro, in view of the tonnage PRC will be allowed to mine.

[Monkey Poms]

Just got back to the big smoke after attending the AGM.

But the big positive for me was that i was one of the lucky ones whose name got picked out of a hat and got to go into the mine itself with Doug White. They took the group of us up to the Hydro Panel and i got to see the hydro in action. I can tell you i stuck my hand in the flume that comes out of the back of the guzzler and there was plenty of coal in the water that was heading out of the mine. People can say what they like, but i can tell you that hydro is working.



Hi Baddarcy. We have been told, Hydro now working at half the pressure that it is capable of, is that still the case.?
( litres per min )

Monkey Poms

[Baddarcy]

Hi Baddarcy. We have been told, Hydro now working at half the pressure that it is capable of, is that still the case.?
( litres per min ) Monkey Poms

Hi MP, yes PW mentioned that in his presentation, and Doug White said the same thing while on the tour. I was surprised by the volume of water that was running down the flume coming out of the guzzler, it was a lot more than i was expecting, it was a fair torrent.

The other thing that i saw up in the mine, was a couple of the haulage machines also (funny they had a big Waratah logo on the side of them) with scoops full of coal, they seemed to be headed towards the flume, presumable to dump the coal. Crikey they were noisey buggers even with the ear plugs.

Also i was surprised by how cumbly the coal was too, i picked up a chunk about the size of a softball while i was looking at the hydro, i gave it a bit of a squeeze and it just crumbled in my hand.

[Baddarcy]

I agree with you Tx. I decided to double up holding last Friday @ .95, and yes, averaging down. :)

IMHO the share price won't move until the funding is sorted out once and for all. Given that the mine is now fairly close to breaking even, there is not a huge amount of funding required. But the uncertainty is harming the price.

Like probably a few others i am hoping pike will be able to source some funding from a bank rather than another capital raising. I certainly think this is the plan, otherwise why would they have bothered getting the funding from NZO for a few months, why not just do a capital raising then and there?

My calcs are as follows:

Cash on hand 30 Sept = $2.8m + facility from NZO of $22m (25 - 3 already drawn down) = $24.8m. Planned expenditure for the current quarter = $23m. This leaves $1.8m. Then if we add income from the Dec/Jan shipment 60,000 tonnes at $USD200 @ and exchange rate of 0.8 = $NZD250 per tonne so $15m total. This would then provide funding for Jan and Feb during whihc time more coal would be mined and so on. At $NZD250 per tonne they need to sell about 32,000 tonnes per month to break even.

So my best guess is that they would ideally want more than $25m to give them a bit of breathing room, so we are probably looking at funding more along $35m i would think.

Thoughts?

[iceman]

Unknowingly your politicians and planning authorities would have had a big influence on the decision by the PRC board of directors on what type of mining equipment to purchase and operate.

The ridiculous decision taken by them to allow planning consent on the basis PRC leave 42,000,000 tonne of prime coking coal in the ground, with a value in the region of ELEVEN BILLION NZ DOLLARS.

Unbeliavable. I can not think of one country in the developed world that would allow this to happen, the thought of NZ paying their way in the world, obviousley means nothing to them.

If we had consent, from the start, to extract all the coal that could be safely mined, PW may have chosen the longwall method of mining, a more expensive method to set up, twice the output of hydro mining.

I know that at one time management would have considerd longwall mining, a good few years ago forum poster Mark Martin was sent down to the proposed mine site to cost & design plans for a conveyor system which would have been required should the longwall method have been chosen.

How meany of you guys, galloping along a road, on the way to the Blackball, notice if the top of a small length of Paparoa mountain shrank by three meter's? OK there is always one, but after half a dozen of NZ's finest, i'll bet you dont notice on the way back.

Monkey Poms.

Happy with Hydro, in view of the tonnage PRC will be allowed to mine.

Well spoken MP. You are absolutely correct about the ridiculously restrictive planning processes here in NZ. They are hampering growth in many industries and holding back our economy and is the main cause of us slipping further and further behind Australia on every measure of financial wellbeing. It should however be noted that the current Government is making noticable changes to legislation to remove some of the unnecessary restrictions. For example last week they made big changes in rules and legislation for the aquaculture industry, which has been stagnant for years. Aquaculture leaders are now saying these changes will allow them to turn this from a NZ$ 350Million per annum industry to NZ$ 1Billion in 8-10 years. Hopefully there is more of this to come for other industries.
Iceman

[tony64peter]

Thanks for the feedback BADDARCY. I was at the prep and load out about two months back and saw piles at both facilities about the size in your video. I assumed them to be around 6000tonnes each based on Pike presentation photos. They obviously haven't produced much coal since then. Given that production would have been ramped up for the AGM the future doesn't look good.

[Baddarcy]

Thanks for the feedback BADDARCY. I was at the prep and load out about two months back and saw piles at both facilities about the size in your video. I assumed them to be around 6000tonnes each based on Pike presentation photos. They obviously haven't produced much coal since then. Given that production would have been ramped up for the AGM the future doesn't look good.

It's a bit hard to see in the video as the prep plant was in the way, but there were actually 3 piles of coal at the Prep plant, not just the one that is in the video, all about the same size as the one that was being built.

[Logen Ninefingers]

So we have an unverified report stating that because the coal is of such high quality - lower ash content, denser etc - it is harder to dislodge and break-up than maybe some of the stuff they are mining in Australia. And then we have hydro-mining running at half pressure. Factor in a continuous miner so unreliable that any production at all would be a bonus, and the fact that the next ABM20 to compliment the existing one won't be arriving until at least January, and you have a bunch of indications that production of the expected target quantities is looking less and less likely.

[Logen Ninefingers]

Mouse, do you have any information on the Waratah continuous miners:
1/ When were these machines first imported into New Zealand, and who was using them here before Pike?
2/ How many Australian mines are using Waratah continuous miners? What countries do they export continuous miners to?
3/ If Waratah are continuous miner specialists, why would they need to get the machines fabricated in Germany?

I don't mind explanations being forthcoming from PRC as to why they have made the decisions they have regarding equipment, but I'd like their statements to stand up to a bit of scrutiny.

[bung5]

So we have an unverified report stating that because the coal is of such high quality - lower ash content, denser etc - it is harder to dislodge and break-up than maybe some of the stuff they are mining in Australia. And then we have hydro-mining running at half pressure. Factor in a continuous miner so unreliable that any production at all would be a bonus, and the fact that the next ABM20 to compliment the existing one won't be arriving until at least January, and you have a bunch of indications that production of the expected target quantities is looking less and less likely.

Most of the comments you just made are contradictory to your final sentance.

[Balance]

Mouse, do you have any information on the Waratah continuous miners:
1/ When were these machines first imported into New Zealand, and who was using them here before Pike?
2/ How many Australian mines are using Waratah continuous miners? What countries do they export continuous miners to?
3/ If Waratah are continuous miner specialists, why would they need to get the machines fabricated in Germany?

I don't mind explanations being forthcoming from PRC as to why they have made the decisions they have regarding equipment, but I'd like their statements to stand up to a bit of scrutiny.

Answers are simple - PRC is run by a bunch of amateur miners and directors who have no idea what they are doing.

The real potential of PRC will only be realized when NZO gives up finally and sells to a real miner with real expertise. I predict that day will not be far off.

NZO must be wondering how it ever got into such a mess!

Whoever buys will of course have to make a full takeover bid - so shareholders will then have to decide what to do. Stay in or call it quits.

The takeover price? I expect NZO will be happy to get out at cost.

[Logen Ninefingers]

Answers are simple - PRC is run by a bunch of amateur miners and directors who have no idea what they are doing.

The real potential of PRC will only be realized when NZO gives up finally and sells to a real miner with real expertise. I predict that day will not be far off.

NZO must be wondering how it ever got into such a mess!

Whoever buys will of course have to make a full takeover bid - so shareholders will then have to decide what to do. Stay in or call it quits.

The takeover price? I expect NZO will be happy to get out at cost.

I think you are totally right Balance as to why these dumb decisions were taken, and I think the real reason that the graben (grabens?) not identified, ventilation shaft collapsed, sub-standard equipment purchased was that cheapo options were used to deliver a working coal-mine as close to the $75 million initially touted / $85 million raised in the initial IPO. The fact that PRC actually have $200+ million now invested in the actual mine and associated processing and logistical infrastructure, and equipment (sperate to the $ being spent on operating costs, wages etc) shows how ridiculously under-costed the project was from the get-go.
Moreover, the corner cutting has made things worse - literally tens of millions of dollars have been added to the bill because of bad decisions and cheapo options taken first time around. Imagine if PRC had had 2 x ABM20's at the mine since July 2009 - which was when the Waratahs turned up. PRC would have exported a sh*t load more coal by now than they have, and this would have alleviated the current problems.
The Waratahs have been an extremely costly mistake. Their drives don't work, they weren't warranted to work on an uphill gradient.....even their tracks had to be replaced. They have not performed on any level at all, and given their complicated Germano-Australian production origins, should we really be surprised. These dogs have cost us many, many millions......basically over 1 years lost production from continuous mining.

[Traderx]

I think you are totally right Balance as to why these dumb decisions were taken, and I think the real reason that the graben (grabens?) not identified, ventilation shaft collapsed, sub-standard equipment purchased was that cheapo options were used to deliver a working coal-mine as close to the $75 million initially touted / $85 million raised in the initial IPO. The fact that PRC actually have $200+ million now invested in the actual mine and associated processing and logistical infrastructure, and equipment (sperate to the $ being spent on operating costs, wages etc) shows how ridiculously under-costed the project was from the get-go.
Moreover, the corner cutting has made things worse - literally tens of millions of dollars have been added to the bill because of bad decisions and cheapo options taken first time around. Imagine if PRC had had 2 x ABM20's at the mine since July 2009 - which was when the Waratahs turned up. PRC would have exported a sh*t load more coal by now than they have, and this would have alleviated the current problems.
The Waratahs have been an extremely costly mistake. Their drives don't work, they weren't warranted to work on an uphill gradient.....even their tracks had to be replaced. They have not performed on any level at all, and given their complicated Germano-Australian production origins, should we really be surprised. These dogs have cost us many, many millions......basically over 1 years lost production from continuous mining.

This is all true and regrettable from many perspectives.

However the bight side is that as it turned out this is unlikely to have cost any money and may in fact have been worth many millions!

as this report

http://www.pike.co.nz/files/analyst_reports/McDouall_Stuart_2010-05-05_PRC.pdf

from may points out, the fact that production did not occur in any great amount through the period of the global financial crisis (and its low commodity prices) means that production is essentially transferred to a potentially much higher priced period, if you are of the view that prices were surpressed during the GFC. This is worth a lot of $$$!

But yep I agree execution is a worry. The good news is that the coal is still there as far as we are aware!

disc: long PRC

[Logen Ninefingers]

This is all true and regrettable from many perspectives.

However the bight side is that as it turned out this is unlikely to have cost any money and may in fact have been worth many millions!

as this report

http://www.pike.co.nz/files/analyst_reports/McDouall_Stuart_2010-05-05_PRC.pdf

from may points out, the fact that production did not occur in any great amount through the period of the global financial crisis (and its low commodity prices) means that production is essentially transferred to a potentially much higher priced period, if you are of the view that prices were surpressed during the GFC. This is worth a lot of $$$!

But yep I agree execution is a worry. The good news is that the coal is still there as far as we are aware!

disc: long PRC

To say this has not cost any money is absurd. The object of any start-up would be to become self-supporting as soon as possible. Currently shareholders are seeing no return on their capital, while optionholders may well be holding virtually worthless options. The argument "well, they were free to begin with" holds no water because the prospect of getting these options would have influenced peoples decision to buy PRC shares in the first place.
Secondly, coal prices have been strong throughout the period of almost nil production. The analyst is just speculating. How can we know where coal prices will go in the short to medium term? What if the Chinese economy slows right down? Really, we could speculate all day as to what may happen but to say that coal prices may increase and that excuses the incompetence we have seen is quite bizarre.

[Balance]

To say this has not cost any money is absurd. The object of any start-up would be to become self-supporting as soon as possible. Currently shareholders are seeing no return on their capital, while optionholders may well be holding virtually worthless options. The argument "well, they were free to begin with" holds no water because the prospect of getting these options would have influenced peoples decision to buy PRC shares in the first place.
Secondly, coal prices have been strong throughout the period of almost nil production. The analyst is just speculating. How can we know where coal prices will go in the short to medium term? What if the Chinese economy slows right down? Really, we could speculate all day as to what may happen but to say that coal prices may increase and that excuses the incompetence we have seen is quite bizarre.

Only with PRC and its shareholders do you get such profound logic!

Those mushrooms are well grown!

[Logen Ninefingers]

What bemuses and saddens me is you have all these people trooping up to the mine and swallowing hook line and sinker every glib line & excuse trotted out by the management team. Talk about shooting fish in a barrel. Peter Whittal makes a speech in which PRC management take no responsibility for anything, and the sheeples are all set to have him canonised and made a saint.
Where is the intellectual curiosity to take what you've been told and actually go away and check the facts for yourself? Sandvik is a high-technology engineering group and a world-leader in tooling, materials technology, mining and construction. It has about 44,000 employees in 130 countries, with annual sales of approximately SEK 86 billion. They supply continuous miners to Australia, USA, UK, South Africa and, more recently, China, Italy, Norway and CIS.
In contrast, in 2007 Waratah Engineering moved from their existing site to rented premises to save money. In 2009 Waratah Engineering went into voluntary administration with debts estimated at about $14 million.

The above is a stark contrast. Which company had the financial resources for research and development and rigorous quality assurance? Which company had the capacity to manufacture machinery in a purpose built factory, with no-need to outsource to another country halfway around the world?

Make no mistake, we have lost over 12 months of production due to shonky equipment which failed spectacularly, but the fact that PRC continued to stick with the 2 'dogs', having tracks brought in from Germany and then the drives overhauled and modified really beggars belief. And for what? One of the 'dogs' is a total loss, the other is so bad any production from it would be a bonus.
Yet Peter Whittal took a stubborn attitude to the ABM20's, eventually reluctantly agreeing to lease one for 12 months. Now they want another one. .....And we are all supposed to be surprised that the ABM20's perform as they should. Well I'm not.

[Logen Ninefingers]

On the options:

This is what poster Patrick stated about what the Chairman said at the AGM:
Answering a question re Options the chairman said the Board had not considered the position of the holders of options, or extension, but " the excersise date is a long way off"
Patrick went on to say that he was feeling positive about prospects and disclosed he was holding a lot of options.
Mark Martin then stated:
John Dow did not seem keen on a lot of questions being asked, and cut the question/anwser time very short as he wanted to get on with "other business".
Barddarcy stated:
I wasn't happy with the answer to the question about the options that the guy behind me asked. I thought the Chairman was very dismissive of the question.

Later in the thread, Bilo stated the following regarding the Auckland meeting:
There was a question about the PRCOA’s and JD’s answer was a “well if you’ve got them you would be better off if you had sold them when they had value, we aren’t counting on the share price being high enough for them to convert, they were given to shareholders for free after all”. There was a complete mind block that shareholders expected the board to vary the terms despite being told it was illegal. Clearly the Board “wouldn’t feel bad of shareholders for not wanting to convert and pay us $80M at this time anyway. Actually Pike could use the capital, we are a bit short.”
(PS THE QUOTES AREN’T LITERAL JUST MY INTERPRETATION OF THE DISCUSSION)

I am paying attention, and I find the above information very interesting.

[Traderx]

To say this has not cost any money is absurd. The object of any start-up would be to become self-supporting as soon as possible. Currently shareholders are seeing no return on their capital, while optionholders may well be holding virtually worthless options. The argument "well, they were free to begin with" holds no water because the prospect of getting these options would have influenced peoples decision to buy PRC shares in the first place.
Secondly, coal prices have been strong throughout the period of almost nil production. The analyst is just speculating. How can we know where coal prices will go in the short to medium term? What if the Chinese economy slows right down? Really, we could speculate all day as to what may happen but to say that coal prices may increase and that excuses the incompetence we have seen is quite bizarre.

You seem a little angry which is sad. No point getting so riled about a share i presume you do not own. My post was entitled "the bright side". I was trying to look for a glimmer of hope amongst the negativity, the silver lining if you will. I accept that all the incompetence occurred and have the view that the share is selling at a discount to its intrinsic value as a result. I hope that value gap will be closed in future. (you could argue that hope is not a good strategy and you'd be right but the value gap is large as well).

As per your claim that prices have remained strong. The evidence is:

http://www.pike.co.nz/files/presentations/Shareholder_Briefing_November_2010.pdf

Price of shipment in Feb $122 USD (NZDUSD approx 70c), Sep Qtr $225 USD (NZDUSD approx 70c), Dec Qtr $205 USD (NZDUSD ???).

So it is definitely true to say that any coal sold say late 2009/early 2010 would be potentially worth a significant amount less than if it was now/going forward.

Cheers :)

[Pete]

Unknowingly your politicians and planning authorities would have had a big influence on the decision by the PRC board of directors on what type of mining equipment to purchase and operate.

The ridiculous decision taken by them to allow planning consent on the basis PRC leave 42,000,000 tonne of prime coking coal in the ground, with a value in the region of ELEVEN BILLION NZ DOLLARS.

Unbeliavable. I can not think of one country in the developed world that would allow this to happen, the thought of NZ paying their way in the world, obviousley means nothing to them.

If we had consent, from the start, to extract all the coal that could be safely mined, PW may have chosen the longwall method of mining, a more expensive method to set up, twice the output of hydro mining.

I know that at one time management would have considerd longwall mining, a good few years ago forum poster Mark Martin was sent down to the proposed mine site to cost & design plans for a conveyor system which would have been required should the longwall method have been chosen.

How meany of you guys, galloping along a road, on the way to the Blackball, notice if the top of a small length of Paparoa mountain shrank by three meter's? OK there is always one, but after half a dozen of NZ's finest, i'll bet you dont notice on the way back.

Monkey Poms.

Happy with Hydro, in view of the tonnage PRC will be allowed to mine.

I went to the investor briefing in Wellington yesterday and PW spoke about the Paparoa seam. The resource consents are reviewed yearly, and I understand that once they have 1. Sorted out the current issues 2. Are in steady state production and 3. Have a better understanding of how the rock structure is holding up, they will look into mining the Paparoa seam. The mine map also shows large sections of the Brunner seam that can't be mined with the current consents.

I was impressed with the overview PW presented and how he answered the questions. My view is that they're about to 'turn the corner' and the start-up risks and costs are reducing, at the same time revenue is about to ramp up. For the long term investor the current share price is a bargain and there is huge upside potential (I'm still buying)

[mouse]

I got Kurt, a German friend, to email Waratah about their machines about a year ago. No reply, so Kurt sent them another message in German. Still no reply. But the problem is they are made in Germany and modified in Australia. All we can do is choke on it. Water under the bridge now. I do have concern about the operation of the RBM20 miners. The manufacturer does not warrant them for the work they are doing. So the bearings could be under stress with eventual failure. I do not know. What I do know is my Holden Commodore would be in difficulty continuously going up a 1 in 4 grade, even sideways.

Mouse, do you have any information on the Waratah continuous miners:
1/ When were these machines first imported into New Zealand, and who was using them here before Pike?
2/ How many Australian mines are using Waratah continuous miners? What countries do they export continuous miners to?
3/ If Waratah are continuous miner specialists, why would they need to get the machines fabricated in Germany?

I don't mind explanations being forthcoming from PRC as to why they have made the decisions they have regarding equipment, but I'd like their statements to stand up to a bit of scrutiny.

[mouse]

I got Kurt, a German friend, to email Waratah about their machines about a year ago. No reply, so Kurt sent them another message in German. Still no reply. But the problem is they are made in Germany and modified in Australia. All we can do is choke on it. Water under the bridge now. I do have concern about the operation of the RBM20 miners. The manufacturer does not warrant them for the work they are doing. So the bearings could be under stress with eventual failure. I do not know. What I do know is my Holden Commodore would be in difficulty continuously going up a 1 in 4 grade, even sideways.
There is another minor reason that the RBM20 was not bought originally. The small matter of cost. A new RBM20 machine cost in UK a few years ago Four Million Pounds Sterling. You have to have two of course which is an added expense. Compare that with the Waratah machines.

[Logen Ninefingers]

There is another minor reason that the RBM20 was not bought originally. The small matter of cost. A new RBM20 machine cost in UK a few years ago Four Million Pounds Sterling. You have to have two of course which is an added expense. Compare that with the Waratah machines.

C'mon mate....you get what you pay for. If I get a pair of shoes from the warehouse for $20 they might look ok for a while put you know they are going to come apart at the seams. When continuous miners fall apart - i.e. tracks coming apart, drives are stuffed etc - it's not as simple as buying a new pair of shoes. Not only have we lost all the time from July 09 up til when hydro started but we still need continuous miners at the mine complimenting the hydro-mining. They are still an integral part of the picture for Pike. Face it, the mine has been crippled by woeful equipment .

[Mark Martin]

Is it not time to now draw a line in the sand and start looking forward and not backwards? Look at what we have now, which is a working mine with a world class product, good machines and new plant. Systems in place and buyers for the product. The SP is at a very good price so buy up large. If you are not happy then sell up and move on. Stop the negitive about the past as it is the past!

[Balance]

Is it not time to now draw a line in the sand and start looking forward and not backwards? Look at what we have now, which is a working mine with a world class product, good machines and new plant. Systems in place and buyers for the product. The SP is at a very good price so buy up large. If you are not happy then sell up and move on. Stop the negitive about the past as it is the past!

If only it was so simple!

The past is indicative of the future as most of the same managers and directors are still running the company!

And this will be about the 4th time I have heard "the worse is now behind the company. The future is now what matters and it is so bright!"

I remember well one of the diehard Pikers writing that he has received personal assurance from the company that "there will be no more capital raising" way back in 2009 and that it was time to look forward. Good one, Xigxex (you know who you are and you have been very quiet).

[sheepy]

If we looked for the original line in the sand that was drawn. You would need binoculars, or a telescope. People cant get away from the fact they could pay a 20 to 35 cent dividend. The board is lucky its only Gordon Ward that was givin the golden handshake to. That

[sheepy]

That excuse about not being the first to import the abm20. What a load of crap. Some one has to be the first. Did they not do any research, or did they already think they were experts and didnt need to do any. Share price coming down, but that was always going to be an easy thing to predict. And it will come down more.

[icarus]

"That excuse about not being the first to import the abm20."

When was this 'not wanting to be the first' alluded to?

[RenHoek]

Is it not time to now draw a line in the sand and start looking forward and not backwards? Look at what we have now, which is a working mine with a world class product, good machines and new plant. Systems in place and buyers for the product. The SP is at a very good price so buy up large. If you are not happy then sell up and move on. Stop the negitive about the past as it is the past!

They're not out of the woods yet.

ie, ( from Peters AGM address )

...The downgrade in forecast production has, naturally, necessitated a review of
the company's financial requirements and an announcement detailing these
plans will be made shortly...

They've still yet to disclose the full financial impact of the last 6 months, and how they're going to get through the next 6.
I'll be waiting a little longer before I buy back in...

[bung5]

I'm guessing it will be announced right after the annoucement of a 60,000 tonne shipment

[sheepy]

Yes another couple of pounds of flesh to nzo. The announcment will include. ( But the plus side we have a boat load of coal. And wait theres more good news we think we might start thinking more about mining the paparoa seam. )

[nwood]

Reported explosion at mine! (via Stuff.co.nz)

[rotweiller]

Confirming explosion at mine.
All emergency personnel on their way.
Awaiting details from first arrival

[QOH]

Let's hope there has been no fatalities.

[nwood]

My Thoughts are with all employees, contractors, and their families.

Keeping an eye on the Twitter stream @ http://search.twitter.com/search?q=pike+river&result_type=recent (No significant information at this stage)

[Marilyn Munroe]

Up to 26 persons not accounted for.

Source TVNZ website

Marilyn

[kiwitrev]

Explosion at mine. 23 staff missing. reports on radio

[Casa del Energia]

What? where is this reported?

[minimoke]

another very very bleak day for the South Island. Lets hope Mines Rescue have an easy job.

[Casa del Energia]

yup - got in nat radio.. greymouth police being interviews now 'keeping fingers crossed, but not good'

[Logen Ninefingers]

Money is nothing. God I hope those miners are ok. When human life and human safety is compromised by human greed and the pursuit of dollars, dollars, dollars then it is sad indictment on all of us, and those too cowardly to speak up. These people have lives, families, children for gods sake.

Balance was right about amateurs running this mine....amateurs who have been paid millions. And for what? The people who deserve the millions are the brave men and women who go down into the earth, not the paper-pushers and smarmy talkers. I've found out enough lately about the under-costing, under-funding, and cost cutting to make me very disturbed about the whole thing. But no-one wants to listen. I think there should be a governemnt enquiry into the Pike Mine. Human life comes first.

[freddy]

Explosion at the mine. 25-30 men missing.

[Baddarcy]

just saw the following comment on stuff ""Emergency services are currently attending an incident at the Pike River Coal Processing Plant in Atarau which is half way between Greymouth and Reefton," police said. "

the processing plant is nowhere near the mine so hope it's true.

[777]

Until the facts are out then pointing the blame is premature.

[nwood]

@RachSmalley: 33 men trapped underground in Pike River Coal mine 50ks north-east of Greymouth. Huge rescue operation underway....

[bull....]

Lets hope the people are safe , they may need to close the mine to investigate this serious accident , not only is it a major blow human wise its a serious blow to pike life threatening maybe?

[geezy]

hmm, this looks serious ..

[yabster]

some sort of explosion apparently.

[skeet]

Mates Dad works at pike river as a safety - Osh consultant. Hope he wasnt there, sound serious.

[Lizard]

They've put both NZO and PRC into halt on the ASX as a result. Though they had best part of an hours more trading there as the news broke.

Hope this is not as bad as first reports sound.

[Monkey Poms]

just saw the following comment on stuff ""Emergency services are currently attending an incident at the Pike River Coal Processing Plant in Atarau which is half way between Greymouth and Reefton," police said. "

the processing plant is nowhere near the mine so hope it's true.

Hope this is the case and the men are safe.

Monkey Poms

[fish]

Hope this is the case and the men are safe.

Monkey Poms

Doesnt sound like it .
TV news has just said 2 men have walked out safe but believed to have been working in another part of the mine .
6 ambulances on scene and 3 rescue helicopters flying in
This sounds like a terrible disaster

[Logen Ninefingers]

Thirty-three people are unaccounted for after an underground explosion in the Pike River Coal Mine on the West Coast this afternoon.

A mix of miners and management, who were on a safety tour of the mine when the blast occurred, are among those missing.

Energy Minister Gerry Brownlee said the blast happened at 3.45pm and the last contact with any of the miners was lost at 4.15pm.

He said mine officials had no idea what caused the blast, or the condition of the miners who were trapped.

Two miners have emerged from a service portal in a separate part of the mine, and are being interviewed by mine managers and emergency services.

[fish]

However, Greymouth District Mayor Tony Kokshoorn said there had been "a big explosion" and people were unaccounted for.

"It's not good news at all, they (police) say there are between 25 and 30 miners unaccounted for, after a big explosion at the mine," Greymouth mayor told Radio New Zealand.

A total of 140 people are employed around the mine site.

Mine chairman John Dow refused to comment a short time ago.

Dow said he had spoken to the chief executive Peter Whittall who would comment soon.

[Logen Ninefingers]

Police said an electrician went into the mine about 3.50pm to investigate a power outage and discovered a loader driver who had been blown off his machine about 1500 metres into the mine shaft.

The company has confirmed there could be as many as 35 people unaccounted for.

[NOCASH]

does this mean the mine is over? my life saving of funds is going to disappear.

[winner69]

Death reported
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=10688716

[Logen Ninefingers]

West Coast area commander Inspector John Canning said detail was still sparse but initial reports suggested at least 30 people were in the mine.

Canning said the reports suggested they could be 1500 metres underground.

The mine has been beset by delay, most particularly the collapse of an air ventilation shaft when it was close to opening for production.

[Logen Ninefingers]

Newstalk ZB are reporting a body has been taken from the mine to the Greymouth DHB.

Energy Minister Gerry Brownlee said the blast happened at 3.45pm and the last contact with any of the miners was lost at 4.15pm.

He said mine officials had no idea what caused the blast, or the condition of the miners who were trapped.

Pike River Coal CEO Peter Whittall confirmed those affected were a mix of afternoon shift workers and management.

[fish]

Lets pray the rest can escape-sounds as if some were in communication for some time after the blast

[float]

horrendous news, fingers crossed

[Nevl]

does this mean the mine is over? my life saving of funds is going to disappear.

Yep pretty much.

But thinking of the miners first. I never invested in PRC for environmental reasons and also because I though coal mining was a nasty dangerous activity that NZ didn't need anymore. Sometimes it sucks to be right.

Lets hope we can get these guys out faster than they did in Chile.

[trackers]

Terrible news, hope the miners are ok - and thoughts go out to Sharetrader Pike holders too :(

[whirly]

This is an absolute tragedy. We pray our friends, brothers and dads have survived. Forget your shares and money this far outweighs any loss any of us have made financially.

[QOH]

This is an absolute tragedy. We pray our friends, brothers and dads have survived. Forget your shares and money this far outweighs any loss any of us have made financially.

Well said whirly. It really is sounding bad according to the TVNZ reporter who flew over the mine.

[fish]

Yep pretty much.

But thinking of the miners first. I never invested in PRC for environmental reasons and also because I though coal mining was a nasty dangerous activity that NZ didn't need anymore. Sometimes it sucks to be right.

Lets hope we can get these guys out faster than they did in Chile.

A lot of us thought this was going to be different-using modern waterblasting techniques we believed it should be safe .
Crap happens too often
At least we still have a life .
My heart bleeds for the worker who has lost his life and all those missing and their families . This is so horrendous .

[Nevl]

A lot of us thought this was going to be different-using modern waterblasting techniques we believed it should be safe .
Crap happens too often
At least we still have a life .
My heart bleeds for the worker who has lost his life and all those missing and their families . This is so horrendous .

I have a friend who is a geologist and has worked in Aussie and Romania. He is pretty scathing about NZ mining practices and about PRC and this was many years ago. He doesn't have much confidence in NZ mining companies. He will be devastated to be proved right tho.

[fish]

The fate of 36 coal miners remains unknown tonight after an explosion at the Pike River coal mine on the West coast.

NewstalkZB understands at least one body has been taken to Greymouth District Hospital.

The CEO of Pike River Peter Wittall confirms there was an explosion during the afternoon shift.

He says there was some communication with a couple of employees shortly after that explosion and two men did make it back above ground.

He says they're now being interviewed to determine exactly what's happened.

One of those men has confirmed he "felt" an explosion - then walked to the surface.

A police spokeswoman says an electrician entered the mine after a power cut shortly after three this afternoon.

He'd gone about one and a half kilometres underground when he spotted a loader driver who'd been blown from his vehicle.

A huge rescue effort is underway, with six ambulances on standby, three rescue helicopters called in, fire-fighters, police and specialist mine rescue personnel.

At the end of shift today, 36 miners tags remained uncollected at the entrance to the mine.

While the situation remains unclear, Grey District Mayor, Tony Kokshoorn has commented it's not looking good. .................

[Balance]

This is a very very sad and black bleak day for the West Coast and for the miners and their families.

Let's pray and hope that most of the miners are okay and that safety measures put in place work.

Miracles do happen as we have witnessed with the Chilean mining collapse recently.

[Logen Ninefingers]

Family are gathering outside the West Coast mine where 36 miners are trapped at least 1500 metres underground after an explosion.

West Coast DHB would not confirm if someone had died.

"We're still waiting. No-one has arrived at the hospital yet," DHB spokesperson Bruce Jamieson said.

"It's about an hour's drive, so it will be some time before patients come through the door."

[Logen Ninefingers]

Reporter Robyn Janes said her cameraman has been flying over the scene of the mine. He said it looks like there has been a massive explosion. There are charred trees, a hut blown off the hill, and a lot of smoke.

[Logen Ninefingers]

LATEST: Family are gathering outside the West Coast mine where 27 men are feared trapped at least 1500 metres underground after an explosion.

Two miners were expected to arrive at Grey Hospital, in nearby Greymouth, via ambulance shortly.

Pike River chief executive Peter Whittal said he had not received any reports of fatalities.

He said 15 of the miners were Pike River coalmine staff and 12 local contractors.

[mouse]

We can hope and pray and wait. The rescue is the major concern. The relatives of the miners and contractors as well.

[fish]

New Zealand Pike River Coal mine company says believes 27 miners trapped by mine explosion - CEO 1 minute ago via web

[mr.needs]

Oh what a difference a day makes.

Thinking of the miners and their familys, and hoping for the best.

A little disgusted with the Chairman John Dow's refusal to comment. A simple 'our thoughts are with the familys of the miners, we are doing all we can' would have sufficed

[Pete]

From TVNZ
7:15pm - Police have confirmed that a loader driver and one other miner made it safely out of the mine a short time ago. They told police that three others are also making their own way out.

[fish]

Oh what a difference a day makes.

Thinking of the miners and their familys, and hoping for the best.

A little disgusted with the Chairman John Dow's refusal to comment. A simple 'our thoughts are with the familys of the miners, we are doing all we can' would have sufficed

Agree but best not to judge-he maybe too busy in the rescue to speak to reporters

[fish]

19 November, 2010 - 19:03

Two miners have emerged from the Pike River Mine near Greymouth on New Zealand's West Coast.

Police say one of the pair is the loader driver who was discovered by the electrician who entered the mine to investigate a power outage.

The two miners indicated three of their colleagues were also on their way to the surface.

The mine entrance is about 2.2km long and then branches out into sub areas.

There is concern that ventilation inside the mine shaft may be compromised by the power outage.

At this stage there is no indication of the cause of the blast.

[shane_m]

this is really bad, my thoughts are with the families who are affected, I hope others are rescued ASAP. why would such a explosion occur, Intrinsic safety equipment electrical equipment not used??

[Lizard]

7:32pm - Mining expert David Feickert said it is not yet known if it was a gas explosion or a coal dust explosion or a combination of both.

"This is what the rescue teams will be determining along with the management team on the spot," he told TV ONE's Close Up. "That's very important in terms of any rescue that's going to take place. That's the first thing they need to determine and certainly if it is safe for them to go in."

Best the coal dust rather than another Brunner...

[Huang Chung]

Terrible for family and friends not knowing...

Hard to fathom what has happened....how does charred trees and huts blown apart correlate to miners trapped 1.5k underground?

Whatever it is, it doesn't sound good.

[Balance]

Best minute by minute coverage and update as news come through :

http://tvnz.co.nz/national-news/live-updates-pike-river-mine-explosion-3904262

[blockhead]

Perhaps Huang Chung the hut and the charred trees are at the exit of the ventilation shaft.

[Balance]

Police has no reports of fatality so far.

Let's hope and pray that it continues to the case.

[Huang Chung]

I guess it will all become clearer with time.

Lets hope there is a good ending to this.

[Balance]

Third miner walks free according to TV3.

[mr.needs]

Thanks for the link

[Balance]

Latest news not good - one of the miners who walked out stated that the blast was so explosive it blew him off the offloader he was driving even though he was some distance away from the blast itself. The speculation is that a cut in electricity in the afternoon to the mine resulted in a build up of gas (no ventilation) which resulted in the explosion. The miners on the wrong side of the explosion (i.e. on the coal face) would have bore the brunt of the blast.

Keep praying and hoping for the best.

[fish]

Best the coal dust rather than another Brunner...

repots are saying its a big gas explosion-trees bown over at one portal .
27 missing
15 prc employees
12 contractors

Rescue teams are not allowed to enter the mine until it is confirmed gas levels are safe .

I pray they are alive but fear blast injuries and carbon monoxide poisoning .
At least this should be different to Chile-with 2 entrances , ventilation shafts and more safety and rescue equipment The horizontal approach should enable rescuers to get to the scene relatively quickly-once they are allowed in .

[Crypto Crude]

very sad to hear this....
:cool:
.^sc

[iceman]

My thoughts are with the families and friends of those involved and also with the management, who will all be going through a very difficult time at present. We shareholders should not speculate as to cause, nor worry about anything other than the saftey of the people involved. That is all that counts at present. My sincerest prayers and best wishes are with them all.
Iceman

[bermuda]

My thoughts are with the families and friends of those involved and also with the management, who will all be going through a very difficult time at present. We shareholders should not speculate as to cause, nor worry about anything other than the saftey of the people involved. That is all that counts at present. My sincerest prayers and best wishes are with them all.
Iceman
Iceman,
Let us all go to bed together with prayers for everyone involved.

[QOH]

A support site for the Pike workers and families. Over 2000 members allready for all over the world.
http://www.facebook.com/PikeRiver?v=wall

[manxman]

Terrible for family and friends not knowing...

Hard to fathom what has happened....how does charred trees and huts blown apart correlate to miners trapped 1.5k underground?

Whatever it is, it doesn't sound good.

BBC news front page http://www.bbc.com/news/# has photo of the top of the main ventilation shaft which appears totally wrecked.

[Sideshow Bob]

Press conference on now on TV3