PRC Pike River Coal

[Ttops]

Came in 13 secs, flopped in a little over 5mins to its close.[|)] The expectation was probably more satisfying than the result for many.;)

Only a few pulled out fast enough and was it all worth it. The buyers seem reluctant to pay any more than you did. Certainly an example of an overhyped share at this stage anyway.

Now you can look forward to having your money stuck in for at least another three to six mths doing very little and even falling (PT) or take the offer at $1.00 and look at real growth. Perhaps you may even get asked for more.

I plan to watch this one and get in before the good news. I sent off for the prospectus and when I was told they "might be able" to get me some shares I had a fair idea there was plenty of demand but not excessive. A fair indicator it wouldn't be a raging success as a stag. I was right and went for the Aussie market instead.

I bought some ADY at 26c closed at 40.5c tonight in less than three weeks :D On the rise again. Get out before midday Monday and into the ASX by 12. [^] Make some profit then have another look at this one when its further progressed.

I believe there is more prospect in ADY than this share for the next six mths and definitely more in ADY over the next two years. PRC is going to be a steady earner not a 4 bagger like ADY imo.
Only time will tell.

[The BOWMAN]

Two many small speculators that is the problem. Average trade size below 10,000. What PRC needs is to dip below $1 and scare away all of them.

[Snow Leopard]

quote:Originally posted by Paper Tiger

Prediction:
I will look in this here thread tomorrow night and there will a couple of pages detailing pre-open depths and prices, the progress during the day, self-congratulatory back-patting as your holding increases in value and post close analysis of the great future.

I will buy your shares from you at 93c a pop in a few months :D

best wishes
Paper Tiger

Disc: NZO & NZOOD amongst other stuff.

Well it did not go as well as expected, I thought you would get a couple of cents more. I can see that many of you are disappointed and putting a brave face on it.
Never mind, worse things happen at sea, I am sure it will be all right on the night, etc.



quote:Originally posted by digger

Do i detect that Unicorn and Paper Tiger did not take up their allications and now want a failure listing to get in cheap.

I expected better of you Digger.

regards
Paper Tiger

[tim23]

Scuffer & Paddie - so good in hindsight but 1 day is just that 1 day in the life of a public co so relax time will tell if you are right?!

[Scuffer]

Hey Tim if I'm right I will be buying in next year not now I got a tip to stay away until next year even posted the warning on this thread but was anyone listening, not from the reaction at the time too many were thinking of the big profit come the day of floatation.:)

[Sideshow Bob]

How many went through at $1.07??

Pike River shares list at 7pc premium
1:00PM Friday July 20, 2007



The Pike River coal mine project on the West Coast has taken a long time to get off the ground.
Pike River Coal shares listed at $1.07 today - a 7 per cent premium over their $1 issue price.

The listing means the company has a capitalisation of $216 million.

The listing is a relief for exchange operator NZX which has only seen one small, New Zealand listing this year -- software company Xero. As in recent years, there have been a dearth of IPOs on the stock exchange.

Pike raised $85m in the IPO, accepting over subscriptions of $20m.

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/section/3/story.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=10452783

[Ttops]

How many went through at $1.07??

SB
342677 shares sold at 107 or 108 in 1min 28secs
V.W.A.P. for the day of of 103.2c

[Unicorn]

quote:Originally posted by digger

Do i detect that Unicorn and Paper Tiger did not take up their allications and now want a failure listing to get in cheap.


Not so Digger. I am an indirect holder, through NZO, so would prefer the PRC share price to be as strong as possible. I also believe that a weak PRC price will hand the company to Australians at a cheap price, and I am very much against that.

I am not looking to get in cheap in the immediate future. I will not even consider an entry until the mine has a transport chain - a stack of coal on the West Coast has little value if it cannot be brought to market economically. Hopefully that hurdle will be overcome soon, and missing the 29 June target will not correspondingly impact on delivery of the ships.

With coal shipments planned to start in earnest Q4 2008, I expect Q3 2008 to be my most likely entry point. I think PRC has much more value than the current share price indicates, but I do not expect the market to acknowledge that value for quite a while yet.

[Hoop]

Quote Scuffer
Hey Tim if I'm right I will be buying in next year not now

Odds on you wont get a chance to.
After the next rights issue and all the investor money has come to pay for final development, this one will be taken over for sure :(. PRC is classic takeover bait. Don't expect NZO to be the white Knight, coal is not their niche.

[Sideshow Bob]

quote:Originally posted by Treetops

How many went through at $1.07??

SB
342677 shares sold at 107 or 108 in 1min 28secs
V.W.A.P. for the day of of 103.2c



Thanks TT

[Billy Boy]

Hoop
Very good point, and this maybe takeover will happen
sooner than later I think. Because the longer PRC goes
that more expensive it becomes.
What do you think a takeover offer would be this time next year ?
Cheers BB

[Steve]

Do we know what proportion of shares went to Aussie investors, with their superior rescouce sector analysis skills?

It may not be until the ASX listing occurs that we will see where the short-term shareprice will sit...

[boysy]

good point the main thing about PRC is that T/O speculation isnt needed to make this share a star all it needs to do is stick to its timtable, inform the market about progress and start producing coal :D

[tim23]

Scuffer - you make it sound like this float has been a disaster - most sellers yesteday never lost any money. As for your tip was it from the shoe shine boy?

[boysy]

good point tim i mean if fridays float got rid of people trying to make a quick buck then good riddence lets hope the aussies value it a bit more than us:)

[Paddie]

quote:Originally posted by tim23

Scuffer & Paddie - so good in hindsight but 1 day is just that 1 day in the life of a public co so relax time will tell if you are right?!


I am relaxed as I don't have any money in Pike.

Production is a long way away, and there will no doubt be problems and delays.

I do see the share pice falling below issue price, and like others believe the time to buy is when they are close to production.

I tied up my money in NZOOD for ages, and would have been better buying a few months ago, as production was nearing.

IMHO the same applies to Pike.

Paddie[:p]

[digger]

[/quote]

I am relaxed as I don't have any money in Pike.

Production is a long way away, and there will no doubt be problems and delays.

I do see the share pice falling below issue price, and like others believe the time to buy is when they are close to production.

I tied up my money in NZOOD for ages, and would have been better buying a few months ago, as production was nearing.

IMHO the same applies to Pike.

Paddie[:p]
[/quote]

Paddie it is as big a gamble to assume that PRC will follow the same path to production as did NZO,and therefore it is better to buy later at the same price leaving monies tied up for a shorter period.Firstly PRC is likely to already to have been issued at a discount,which in time will be recovered. Also NZO and the many PRC holders from NZO will be richer in the near future so any further shortfall will likely get taken up internally. Also the thought that PRC could be cheaper in the future will have been considered by the current Pike holders before buying. The ASX effect is yet to impact on PRC as is the near removal of stages selling.[About 3 weeks].
Just who bought into PRC could well have a telling impact on the shareprice.We should know that in a week or two.
Always it is your call as that is what makes a market,but i do note several have jumped to the conclusion that prices will be cheaper down the track,just because it happend to NZO.Just may not be so.

[whatsup]

What is PRC's dividend policy and what is the pendind PE next year?

[digger]

Oh i forgot the exchange rate is super high at the moment and is far more likely to go down in the future than up.To my mind the future is likely to have a 5 unit down move for every one up.

[Paddie]

quote:Originally posted by digger




I am relaxed as I don't have any money in Pike.

Production is a long way away, and there will no doubt be problems and delays.

I do see the share pice falling below issue price, and like others believe the time to buy is when they are close to production.

I tied up my money in NZOOD for ages, and would have been better buying a few months ago, as production was nearing.

IMHO the same applies to Pike.

Paddie[:p]
[/quote]

Paddie it is as big a gamble to assume that PRC will follow the same path to production as did NZO,and therefore it is better to buy later at the same price leaving monies tied up for a shorter period.Firstly PRC is likely to already to have been issued at a discount,which in time will be recovered. Also NZO and the many PRC holders from NZO will be richer in the near future so any further shortfall will likely get taken up internally. Also the thought that PRC could be cheaper in the future will have been considered by the current Pike holders before buying. The ASX effect is yet to impact on PRC as is the near removal of stages selling.[About 3 weeks].
Just who bought into PRC could well have a telling impact on the shareprice.We should know that in a week or two.
Always it is your call as that is what makes a market,but i do note several have jumped to the conclusion that prices will be cheaper down the track,just because it happend to NZO.Just may not be so.

[/quote]

Digger,

Time will tell.

And of course it is only my opinion.

I made a conscious decision not to take up my Pike allocation for reasons stated above, and used my spare cash to buy another chunk of NZOOD's at around the 20c mark.

I also have exposure to Pike through NZO.

I just struggle to see Pike gaining any momemtum until much closer to production.

Good luck
Paddie:)

[Scuffer]

My tip came from a friend not the shoe shine boy but he did have a polished piece of coal with a use after date stamped in gold leaf.the shoe shine boy was the one trying to sell the stuff, he was selling a few as well hope you got the amount you wanted.:D

[AMR]

By my calculations, if the dollar drops according to their prospectus, then 15cps in their first year of full production. If the dollar stays around 75c, then 8cps. My belief is that if the dollar falls, then PRC will stabilise at a price higher than the issue price, maybe somewhere around $1.20 - $1.30.

[tim23]

Scuffer = I'm not sure what your point is as I said ypu seem to suggest the float as been a shocker, I reckon its been a success

[boysy]

only time will tell we cant jump to conclusions after one day trading. I mean thoses PRC holders who sold will clearly see it as a failure as they were only in for a short gain while thoses holding longer term are waiting to see. ;)

[the machine]

quote:Originally posted by digger




I am relaxed as I don't have any money in Pike.

Production is a long way away, and there will no doubt be problems and delays.

I do see the share pice falling below issue price, and like others believe the time to buy is when they are close to production.

I tied up my money in NZOOD for ages, and would have been better buying a few months ago, as production was nearing.

IMHO the same applies to Pike.

Paddie[:p]
[/quote]

Paddie it is as big a gamble to assume that PRC will follow the same path to production as did NZO,and therefore it is better to buy later at the same price leaving monies tied up for a shorter period.Firstly PRC is likely to already to have been issued at a discount,which in time will be recovered. Also NZO and the many PRC holders from NZO will be richer in the near future so any further shortfall will likely get taken up internally. Also the thought that PRC could be cheaper in the future will have been considered by the current Pike holders before buying. The ASX effect is yet to impact on PRC as is the near removal of stages selling.[About 3 weeks].
Just who bought into PRC could well have a telling impact on the shareprice.We should know that in a week or two.
Always it is your call as that is what makes a market,but i do note several have jumped to the conclusion that prices will be cheaper down the track,just because it happend to NZO.Just may not be so.

[/quote]

Digger, upon listing on ASX the top 20 shareholders are detailed

regards

M

[Scuffer]

Tim I don't think the float was a shocker it wasn't the flyer everyone was thinking it was going to be, I still think this company will come good for its shareholders, but its gonna take longer than what some on this thread are hoping.The bottom line is there is still risk here but I think it will be a good investment in 6-12 months time.

[tim23]

I think most know its going to take time - you are right - good luck timing the perfect entry point!

[Prophet]

A view from the Melbourne Age

Pike River Coal shares listed at $NZ1.07 ($A0.97) on Friday - a seven per cent premium over their $NZ1 ($A0.90) issue price.

The listing means the company has a capitalisation of $NZ216 million ($A195.07 million).

The listing is a relief for exchange operator NZX which has only seen one small, New Zealand listing this year - software company Xero.

As in recent years, there has been a dearth of IPO on the NZ stock exchange.

Pike raised $NZ85 million ($A76.76 million) in the IPO, accepting over subscriptions of $NZ20 million ($A18.06 million).

The Pike River coal mine project on the West Coast has taken decades to get off the ground.

The much anticipated IPO was delayed many times and as well as the delays, the company has been dogged by other problems including the en masse resignation in December of the independent directors who complained parent company NZ Oil and Gas was exerting too much control.

It has taken eight years to get all the necessary consents, including an access agreement with the Department of Conservation (DOC).

NZOG will continue to own just over a third of the company, down from 61 per cent. Indian interests will hold just over 20 per cent.

Some of the IPO delay was due to the bedding down of a $NZ20 million ($A18.06 million) investment by Indian company Gujarat NRE Coke.

The company intends to mine 17.6 million tonnes of high grade, low ash, coking coal identified as recoverable from the Brunner seam over 19 years. That will amount to around $NZ2 billion ($A1.81 billion), at current exchange rates, over the mine's life.

The project was begun in September and is expected to be a boon for the West Coast and Port Taranaki from where the coal will be shipped offshore after being barged there.

As well as the mine development, there will be $NZ90 million ($A81.28 million) invested in the transport chain - getting the coal to Greymouth and New Plymouth from where it will be exported to Japan, India and China.

The mine development cost is $NZ207 million ($A186.94 million), around a third spent to date.

Pike has signed a major supply contract with Nippon Steel and has other Japanese and Chinese companies knocking on its door.

The company, which also will be listed on the ASX, is the biggest local IPO since Barramundi last year raised $NZ100 million ($A90.31 million).

[Scuffer]

Tim if I get the perfect entry point I will be extremely happy,somewhere near will do for me,but its better for it to be that way than trying to get an exit point and getting it wrong if things are not all they are cracked up to be.

[Bling_Bling]

One year is not very far away. The market usually price the company on future earnings and not current earnings.

[boysy]

only time will tell what PRC is worth. It clearly does have alot more work to do before it starts to produce coal but when/if it does it will be a winner.

[boysy]

Pike River debuts at a premium

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/section/3/story.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=10452900

[bermuda]

Over there this weekend .
The whole town is abuzz!!!

[Prophet]

Bermuda - Over where; which town?

On the minus side I suspect that there will be short term weakness in Pike as the stags bail out. Its been a long time between IPO's for them and this one looked to be on track to list at a premium much bigger than it did.

But on the plus things may also look up for the share price once the ASX starts trading it; the Ockers are addicted to their resource stocks. Quite aside from that this company has a world class product that is in demand. Its got 20yrs of product and has already presold several years of production. Its getting its setup costs out of the way in the strong NZD env and will most likely start selling in USD into a weaker NZD env. Kiwisaver fund managers will no doubt want a slice of this stock it will be a solid income stock.

[bermuda]

Prophet,
You are spot on.
Greymouth is abuzzing!!!

[hilly]

how does one confirm how many PRC shares I got in the allocation?

[AMR]

Login to computershare.co.nz and check your holdings under PRC.

[FRED]

hilly

I sold yours on the open. You owe me a beer.

F

[Scuffer]

quote:Originally posted by Prophet

Bermuda - Over where; which town?

On the minus side I suspect that there will be short term weakness in Pike as the stags bail out. Its been a long time between IPO's for them and this one looked to be on track to list at a premium much bigger than it did.

But on the plus things may also look up for the share price once the ASX starts trading it; the Ockers are addicted to their resource stocks. Quite aside from that this company has a world class product that is in demand. Its got 20yrs of product and has already presold several years of production. Its getting its setup costs out of the way in the strong NZD env and will most likely start selling in USD into a weaker NZD env. Kiwisaver fund managers will no doubt want a slice of this stock it will be a solid income stock.
Prophet your bang on agree with you totally:)

[Mingeathinaikos]

Could well be an interesting morning for PRC. After the weekend to digest the opening day, people may well be reassessing their objectives with this stock, not entirely sure for better or worse in terms of share price...

[Billy Boy]

An undisclosed buy at 100c
Now who would do that??

[Bling_Bling]

When does PRC list in Aussie?

[Bob Marley]

Hey mon. I'm not sure that the oversubsriptions were entirely a good thing mon. I mean, when the guru's were valuing PRC they would have surely assumed no oversubsriptions mon ie. 180m shares in total (115m existing + 65m new). They would have calculated a value for the project, approx $180m, divided it by 180m shares to come up with the $1 IPO price. Now we have to go $180m divided by 200m shares = 90c to take into account the dilution mon.

Also, people are saying the coal price will be higher than expected next year mon. It may well be mon. But hey mon, if that's the case mon the currency is most likely to be high too to offset any high coal price mon. As explained in the prospectus mon, there is a positive correlation between coal proce and exchange rate. ie we're unlikley to see a high coal price and low exchange rate mon. That is because BHP and RIO set the benchmark prices each year and if the Aussie dollar's high then the'll demand a higher coal price and vv.

[whatsup]

WOW WOW WOWW .99c now wow wow!!!

[Yossarian]

aaah bob, its $200m/200m shares..... not 180/200...

[dsurf]

Bling_Bling Posted - 23/07/2007 : 09:47:37 AM
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
When does PRC list in Aussie?

I just phoned Pike about this. The answer was that it is expected "in the next week". The gentleman organising this is "out of the office til Thurs". I assume he is over the ditch. This all suggests that it is unlikely this week and more likely the week after. (or the week after that ie 2 weeks at 4:45pm Aus time on a public holiday in the rest of the world?)

[duncan macgregor]

quote:Originally posted by dsurf

Bling_Bling Posted - 23/07/2007 : 09:47:37 AM
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
When does PRC list in Aussie?

I just phoned Pike about this. The answer was that it is expected "in the next week". The gentleman organising this is "out of the office til Thurs". I assume he is over the ditch. This all suggests that it is unlikely this week and more likely the week after. (or the week after that ie 2 weeks at 4:45pm Aus time on a public holiday in the rest of the world?)
I take it that its NOG time then?.:D:D:Dmacdunk

[Yossarian]

holy moley...bids at 85 according to ASB Securities....?????

[whatsup]

What the pluck is going onnnnnnnnnnnnnnnn!

[JoeKing]

quote:Originally posted by tim23

Scuffer = I'm not sure what your point is as I said ypu seem to suggest the float as been a shocker, I reckon its been a success

Right Tim a huge success and getting huger...but for whome?
Can someone please run this by me again?
How many NZO shares @ $1 did you have to buy to get a FREE option, and qualify for a how many to 1 preference PRC share at a NZO holders preferred discount?
How many of the promised ratio did you get? Oh! of course the IPO was over subscribed. So, the loyal shareholders had their allocation scaled back... The boyz in the back room got extra shares, the Company gets an exta few million bucks whith which to buy back your shares...
yep sounds pretty successfull to me...
When are you guys gonna learn???
Do I really want that 40k at 84c???
Cheers and good luck Pikers
JK

[Balance]

If you have faith in PRC and invested for the long term and believe that its real value will only be apprecaited by the market when the coal starts coming out of the ground, does it really matter if the share price is $1.25 or 85 cents until that happens? Short term, the share price could drop further but a development project like this was always going require fortitude and an appreciation of the longer term investment horizon required.

[JoeKing]

quote:Originally posted by Balance


If you have faith in PRC and invested for the long term and believe that its real value will only be apprecaited by the market when the coal starts coming out of the ground, does it really matter if the share price is $1.25 or 85 cents until that happens? Short term, the share price could drop further but a development project like this was always going require fortitude and an appreciation of the longer term investment horizon required.

Balance, I think perhaps the newly enlightned NOGGERS who hocked off their prized golf clubs, fishing gear etc to take ou recent rights issue and thus qualify for promised PRC allocation might see things a bit different?
Nah! do'nt want em at 84c... pulled order.
Cheers and good luck PIKERS
JK

[Yossarian]

still v few buyers out there...

[boysy]

why would there be when everyone is trying to dump there shares on the market. Simply a matter of demand vs supply come on people at least wait for them to list on ASX. I suspect this will be another stock which aussies will make a killing out of because us kiwis have lost our nerve after what 2 days of trading.

[Ttops]

What is stopping the Aussie buyers buying on the NZX may I ask in my ignorance?

[Balance]

quote:Originally posted by Treetops

What is stopping the Aussie buyers buying on the NZX may I ask in my ignorance?


Nothing. Maybe with 20% of the stock, they were hoping to make a killing by selling back to NZ investors?

[slam]

Just need a nervous punter to sell into that 88c bid and trigger some stops ;)
Bargain time coming up maybe

Cheers
Slam

[Ttops]

Well Why should the Aussies buy any more on the ASX when that opens boysy?

[Tok3n]

lol annoucement coming

[Gofor Broke]

Could be right Slam, I have dug out and dusted cheque book. Do you think my 75c order could possibly be hit?
Plenty of time to go before first coal.
:D:D:D

[slam]

They now have power,[:0] sort of essential really;)

[upside_umop]

NZX says its about the mine powering up. Cant read full story yet..

[Ttops]

quote:Originally posted by Bob Marley

Hey mon. I'm not sure that the oversubsriptions were entirely a good thing mon. I mean, when the guru's were valuing PRC they would have surely assumed no oversubsriptions mon ie. 180m shares in total (115m existing + 65m new). They would have calculated a value for the project, approx $180m, divided it by 180m shares to come up with the $1 IPO price. Now we have to go $180m divided by 200m shares = 90c to take into account the dilution mon.

Also, people are saying the coal price will be higher than expected next year mon. It may well be mon. But hey mon, if that's the case mon the currency is most likely to be high too to offset any high coal price mon. As explained in the prospectus mon, there is a positive correlation between coal proce and exchange rate. ie we're unlikley to see a high coal price and low exchange rate mon. That is because BHP and RIO set the benchmark prices each year and if the Aussie dollar's high then the'll demand a higher coal price and vv.

Hey BM
It's dun da limbo mon. Bang on mon.

[Crypto Crude]

quote:Balance-If you have faith in PRC and invested for the long term and believe that its real value will only be apprecaited by the market when the coal starts coming out of the ground, does it really matter if the share price is $1.25 or 85 cents until that happens?

Yes it does matter, its called opportunity cost plays...
eg,im currently holding nzood at the expense of cue...
but I know production is very close so thats ok...;)
[8D]
.^sc

[slam]

quote:Originally posted by Gofor Broke

Could be right Slam, I have dug out and dusted cheque book. Do you think my 75c order could possibly be hit?
Plenty of time to go before first coal.
:D:D:D

More chance than my lowest bid at 45c LOL
But in for a penny, stranger things have happened with the NZX

Cheers
Slam

[AMR]

quote:Originally posted by Bob Marley

Hey mon. I'm not sure that the oversubsriptions were entirely a good thing mon. I mean, when the guru's were valuing PRC they would have surely assumed no oversubsriptions mon ie. 180m shares in total (115m existing + 65m new). They would have calculated a value for the project, approx $180m, divided it by 180m shares to come up with the $1 IPO price. Now we have to go $180m divided by 200m shares = 90c to take into account the dilution mon.

Also, people are saying the coal price will be higher than expected next year mon. It may well be mon. But hey mon, if that's the case mon the currency is most likely to be high too to offset any high coal price mon. As explained in the prospectus mon, there is a positive correlation between coal proce and exchange rate. ie we're unlikley to see a high coal price and low exchange rate mon. That is because BHP and RIO set the benchmark prices each year and if the Aussie dollar's high then the'll demand a higher coal price and vv.


Yes the dividend yield will be lower in terms of CPS, but I'm not terribly sure you are correct in worrying about the sunk costs.

[AMR]

Here is it for those who can't access it.

Pike River Coal Limited - Announcements


PRC
23/07/2007
GENERAL

REL: 1238 HRS Pike River Coal Limited

GENERAL: PRC: Pike River Mine Powering Up

23 July 2007

PIKE RIVER MINE POWERING UP

Pike River Coal Limited (PRC) last week achieved another milestone in
development of its premium hard coking coal mine near Greymouth.

The Pike River mine facilities now have electricity, following completion of
a $11.6 million contract (within budget) by local supply company Westpower
Limited and national infrastructure owner Transpower New Zealand Ltd.

Pike River General Manager, Mines, Peter Whittall said "getting power to the
Pike site is another important step towards the start of coal production by
March 2008".

Electricity will be used to power the coal preparation plant, pumps, mine
ventilation, mining equipment and for offices and workshops.

Transpower have completed installation and commissioning of a new switch
station at the corner of Atarau and Logburn Roads in the Grey Valley 40km
north-east of Greymouth. This switch station takes power from the 110kV
national grid line running from Reefton to Dobson. From the switching
station, Westpower have installed a 7.5km 110kV line to the new main
substation at Pike River's coal preparation plant location. This sub station
will supply power to the coal preparation plant and via 8.6km of 33kV line,
up to the mine portal.

Fully insulated and extra strength "Hendrix" power cable has been used on the
last four kilometres of the 33kV line to the mine portal to minimise damage
to native trees from fire or discharge should the cable be brought down by
storm damage.

Westpower will own and operate the electricity supply infrastructure for the
development. Pike River has contracted Meridian Energy to supply power to the
mine for the first three year period. Pike River will also continue to
evaluate the potential for on-site power generation from coal mine methane as
the mine is developed.

[J R Ewing]

quote:Originally posted by slam

Just need a nervous punter to sell into that 88c bid and trigger some stops ;)
Bargain time coming up maybe

Cheers
Slam



Looks like someone tried this cunning ploy [}:)] It didn't trigger the avalanche. :D

[tim23]

Joeking the recent NOG rights issue (1/10 with attached option)has got very little to do with the PRC float - it would simply have increased your entitlement. Those who did take up their rights are approx 43% ahead after about 7 months!The PRC float is 2 days old - you are the Piker not the investors.

[duncan macgregor]

I would have thought that 11.6 millionn dollars would have been better spent on their own powerhouse generator system. Lets face it if its alright to ship it to india to burn why not burn a bit here first to generate cheap power for the project. I presume the greenies would be up in arms if they did that, but dont mind it being exported overseas for similar reasons. A lot of downside on this share still to come before the first divi fronts up. I see 80c on the horizon before that happens. Macdunk

[Ttops]

MCD
PRC will fight Greenies all the way thats for sure thus increasing their costs. Agreed this one has a negative timeline for some time. ;);) Everyone with any common will sit on the sideline and watch with glee. :D

[zorba]

.
Another 50 meters added to Tunnel !!

Go Pike !!!!

http://www.nzog.net/images/Tunnel_Advance.jpg

[dsurf]

With you Zorba - Coal arrival time has not changed, record china growth, Ausi money yet to come in. This stock is a great hold for the next 20 years and should return circa 25% pa for the patient.

On another note - all the baggers - did you buy any. did you get out in time to make any money.

Are you currently short - if not why the glee - no brown stuff in my pants

[johndeyell]

Got my Computershare statement today - no scaling for me!! I'm very happy :-)

[Bling_Bling]

WOOT! Bling came home and find PRC falling. :) Gonna watch and pick up some more shares when they it bottom. The lower it goes the more Bling is gonna buy. :)

[Billy Boy]

I dont mind the drop.
Happy average down here as well
[^]

[whatsup]

PRC, on the way up , get in now as this is the BOTTOM!!!

[Paddie]

quote:Originally posted by Billy Boy

I dont mind the drop.
Happy average down here as well
[^]


This is only the second day after the float, and the price is soft.

Will be interesting over the next few months how low this goes.

I am sure Billy Boy that there will be plenty more opportunities to average down in the months ahead.

Paddie[^]

[dsurf]

Paddie - why don't you short if you are so confident?

[Nitaa]

quote:Originally posted by dsurf

Paddie - why don't you short if you are so confident?
There will be some positves coming out over the next couple of months. Each little milestone reached all adds up.

I find it ironic that the SP is now lower than the price that people paid for it. It seems to me that the ones who have bailed were only hoping for a quick buck. Maybe some valuable lessons learnt.

disc. didnt buy into the ipo but own indirectly through NZO.

[Paddie]

quote:Originally posted by Nita


quote:Originally posted by dsurf

Paddie - why don't you short if you are so confident?
There will be some positves coming out over the next couple of months. Each little milestone reached all adds up.

And there is the potential for a lot of negatives as well. Cost blowouts, delays, NOG time, transport issues, so I am struggling to see what is going to drive the price up until near production.

I find it ironic that the SP is now lower than the price that people paid for it. It seems to me that the ones who have bailed were only hoping for a quick buck. Maybe some valuable lessons learnt.

disc. didnt buy into the ipo but own indirectly through NZO.





Don't get me wrong, I hold NZO and NZOOD, so it costing me with Pike's decrease.

Just stating what I believe will happen.

Paddie[^]

[Scuffer]

:D:D:D:D

[zorba]

.
Chinese economy expands at annual rate of 11.9% in last quarter:

http://www.canada.com/nationalpost/financialpost/story.html?id=3da20643-77f5-4ec6-a553-a59671ecb4ef

Chinese demand for themal coal causes thermal prices to head towards US$60 / tonne:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20602099&sid=aUtYV40Tv.WU&refer=energy

Thermal coal demand will likely underpin and support coking coal prices ...

Look for robust coking coal prices (above US$90 / tonne ?? (currently approx US$95 / tonne)) in December when the annual coking coal prices (for 2008) are negotiated and set by the Aussies and the Japanese Steel Mills at end of year.

Pike could well issue options before end of year --- see page 18 Section 2.6 of prospectus !!

Looks like support for shares at 95 cents ...

Time to load up ??

[Nitaa]

quote:Originally posted by zorba

.
Chinese economy expands at annual rate of 11.9% in last quarter:

http://www.canada.com/nationalpost/financialpost/story.html?id=3da20643-77f5-4ec6-a553-a59671ecb4ef

Chinese demand for themal coal causes thermal prices to head towards US$60 / tonne:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20602099&sid=aUtYV40Tv.WU&refer=energy

Thermal coal demand will likely underpin and support coking coal prices ...

Look for robust coking coal prices (above US$90 / tonne ?? (currently approx US$95 / tonne)) in December when the annual coking coal prices (for 2008) are negotiated and set by the Aussies and the Japanese Steel Mills at end of year.

Pike could well issue options before end of year --- see page 18 Section 2.6 of prospectus !!

Looks like support for shares at 95 cents ...

Time to load up ??


zorba

At this stage why the hurry to jump in. Pike has many hurdles to cross and to get over them all without a hitch would be a minor miracle.

Any options that Pike make available then simply buy them when they become if you think they have any merit.

[arjay]

Strange - Pike fundamentals have not changed one iota, so why are people who paid a dollar for a share last week bailing out at 95c now?

[bermuda]

Because those same people thought they could get out at $1.05 or higher and repay a leveraged loan and make a quick buck.

Now they are realising that this is a long term project and are having to abandon ship to repay the loan and take a forced loss.Happens all the time

Sooner or later the Pike share register will be totally filled with those who like the project.

[geezy]

IMHO the short term traders are causing this decline, would love to load up more shares but i think the sp will fall quite substantially if any bad news comes up in the next 1-2 months.

hold PRC

[Balance]

Never try and catch a falling knife. Also, unlikely the share price will now go above $1.00 untiil such time as the coal start getting out of the ground as too many punters will now be happy to get their $1.00 back out.

Keep the eye on the long term. If PRC can develop to schedule without mishaps, shareholders will be well rewarded a year from now.

[boysy]

[center]i also agree with you geezy i am also supprised to see how many people thought they could make a quik buk on this one. Glad to see many of them have got out and my hope that the faithful can be dutyfully rewarded [;)

[upside_umop]

it seems the pesimists are right so far - that is below $1.00. im in this with a minimum holding.

my opinion is that any good news will underpin the shareprice. ie, if they are ahead of schedule it will bring confidence to the investors..thats something that has been lacking this whole way through the project. it seemed to gain support at $0.95 after the announcement today. like everyone has been saying, all the punters are pulling out taking their loss after they realise they cant take the short term gain. once they are gone, it will only be the holders who are in this till productions starts..unless bad news occurs or there is people who need to get out for personal reasons, which will occur in any situation really.

its the second day in, im thinking with my head on this one. its good to see opinions, both good and bad.

does anyone know what the average pe is in ozzy for coal miners...i have looked up a few, seem to be trading around the 20+ mark. ie required rate of return 5%? seems reasonably low since coal is already so high. thoughts anyone?

[trackers]

quote:Originally posted by Balance


Never try and catch a falling knife. Also, unlikely the share price will now go above $1.00 untiil such time as the coal start getting out of the ground as too many punters will now be happy to get their $1.00 back out.

Keep the eye on the long term. If PRC can develop to schedule without mishaps, shareholders will be well rewarded a year from now.


Big call, it will go over $1 before production....

[Ttops]

I bought some ADY at 26c closed at 40.5c tonight in less than three weeks On the rise again. Get out before midday Monday and into the ASX by 12. Make some profit then have another look at this one when its further progressed.
I believe there is more prospect in ADY than this share for the next six mths and definitely more in ADY over the next two years. PRC is going to be a steady earner not a 4 bagger like ADY imo.
Only time will tell.

Anyone that did this would have had fun. I took my own advice and bought some at 50c when I woke up to the fact it was trading again. Closed at 58.5c
:D

[dsurf]

Australias 2nd largest coal company predicts 2008 coking coal prices to reach 2005 record levels.

PRC price in a year IMO will be above $1.40

'Substantial uplift' in coal price will help recovery
5:00AM Tuesday July 24, 2007

MELBOURNE - Centennial Coal expects a "substantial uplift" in 2008 profit as prices and output rise, helping it to recover from a slump in earnings last year.

Australia's second-largest coal company by sales said prices for coking and thermal coal would increase this year and production at the Tahmoor mine should rebound from lower-than-expected output last year.

"The strength experienced in the market is not just short term, with the future outlook also predicted to remain strong," Centennial said, adding the price of coking coal, used in steel-making, was heading for the record reached in 2005.

Profit for the year to June 30 will probably be between A$30 million ($33.08 million) and A$40 million before a A$34.1 million writedown for faults at the Newstan mine. Centennial had net income of A$17.1 million the previous year.

The spot price of coking coal has risen to more than US$110 a tonne and is heading for the US$125 reached in 2005. BHP Billiton, the world's largest exporter of coking coal, settled benchmark coking coal prices for this year at US$98 a tonne.


Advertisement
AdvertisementCentennial said the price of thermal coal, used by power stations, might rise to US$70 a tonne in 2008. Its highest-priced contract for this year was US$55.65.

Centennial also said fourth-quarter shipments fell 16 per cent after it relocated part of its Mandalong mining and storms delayed shipping. Sales fell to 3.7 million tonnes for the three months to June 30, from 4.3 million tonnes a year ago.

- BLOOMBERG

[Ttops]

PRC price in a year IMO will be above $1.40

dsurf
If you really believe this you would be buying up large and the market would be following suit if it agreed. Good luck to you -I hope you are right. A more realistic aim might be 1.15 if nothing goes wrong and then I'll join you as well.

[dsurf]

Treetops: At the moment we have the NZ market contributing to a dual listing. This is not the full market for PRC. (It may be that it would have fallen to 80c if Ausi were involved initially).

I do believe it (that coking coal will reach record 2005 levels) and I have bought as much as I was entitled to from NZO (I prefer NZO / PPP oil etc)

However why do you not believe that China is growing at record pace due to industrialisation that requires steel? etc, etc

[dsurf]

Ausi Listing - Delay due to ASX not PRC - May happen tomorrow according to company sources - probably this week.

Will be interesting!

[Parky]

What would stop the australians buying in NZX at the current apparent discount, I am not at all looking forward to the ASX listing

[nell]

When do you you think they can make a statement regarding the re-rating of the Tui field? Is it months or days out?

[nell]

Woops wrong topic

[Ttops]

quote:Originally posted by Parky

What would stop the australians buying in NZX at the current apparent discount, I am not at all looking forward to the ASX listing

Parky
They are having Much More fun trading ADY thats why!! Check it out 32m + not a piffling 0.1m [:p] Forget the Aussies. They would have been here by now. Take your loss and move on or sit out six months in misery.

Looks like I stirred the pot .258m now

[duncan macgregor]

quote:Originally posted by Treetops


quote:Originally posted by Parky

What would stop the australians buying in NZX at the current apparent discount, I am not at all looking forward to the ASX listing

Parky
They are having Much More fun trading ADY thats why!! Check it out 32m + not a piffling 0.1m [:p] Forget the Aussies. They would have been here by now. Take your loss and move on or sit out six months in misery.
Exactly what was going through my mind trading AGM. It went from 59c to $1-18 to 68c back to 81c in seven months. The Aussies wont buy into this when they have better less complicated shares for the fundies over there. Its not a traders share, liquidity is the problem, so why worry about any Aussie stupid enough to throw money at this. Its all yours guys dont worry i certainly dont want any until i see the first years profit. Macdunk

[Rabbi]

Treetops-you are on the wrong thread. ADY is on the ASX thread.

[duncan macgregor]

quote:Originally posted by Rabbi

Treetops-you are on the wrong thread. ADY is on the ASX thread.
Read his post again he only stated Aussies were having more fun trading ADY to be bothered with a dog like PRC, or words to that effect.:D:D:Dmacdunk

[Ttops]

By the way macdunk I owe you as well as Phaedrus.

Thanks for posting so frequently about ASX metals. I finally got sick of waiting for NZX shares to do anything and went looking at what you were up to. Maybe these guys might take the hint as well if they are prepared to admit it and take a loss in order to make a decent profit in the shortest time possible. Time is the key and being prepared to take a loss.
Thanks anyway
TT
There is a smidgeon of truth MCD. I will shut up about ADY if you guys will stop talking about Aussies wanting PRC in a huge way. Why would they?

[Parky]

quote:Originally posted by Treetops


quote:Originally posted by Parky

What would stop the australians buying in NZX at the current apparent discount, I am not at all looking forward to the ASX listing

Parky
They are having Much More fun trading ADY thats why!! Check it out 32m + not a piffling 0.1m [:p] Forget the Aussies. They would have been here by now. Take your loss and move on or sit out six months in misery.

Looks like I stirred the pot .258m now


As much as I would like to disagree, you are probably right; the strong demand for coal was a known fact and even with further favourable news of higher demand the SP seem to be sliding. The hype of an IPO, learnt my lesson and perhaps good times ahead to get my average buy price down

[doz]

Pike River asks for further $25 million
New 3:55PM Tuesday July 24, 2007

NZ Oil and Gas has agreed to provide up to $25 million extra to help develop Pike River Coal's West Coast mine, following an $85 million capital raising.

NZOG, Pike River's parent and largest shareholder with 31 per cent, said money raised through the initial public offering will run out at the end of January 2008, two months before coal production is scheduled to begin.

"... NZOG has agreed that after 1 January 2008 upon request of Pike River, it will provide equity funding or other financial support of up to $25 million to PRCL on usual and reasonable arms' length terms and conditions to be agreed," NZOG said.

The company said it expected the value of its investment to be "substantially upgraded" as the mine nears production.

Pike River shares listed last week at a 7 per cent premium after the capital raising closed oversubscribed. The much anticipated IPO was delayed many times, and the coal mine project near Greymouth has taken decades to get off the ground.

NZOG's stake has fallen from 61 per cent. Indian interests will hold just over 20 per cent.

The company intends to mine 17.6 million tonnes of high grade, low ash, coking coal identified as recoverable from the Brunner seam over 19 years. That will amount to around $2 billion, at today's exchange rate, over the mine's life.

The mine development cost is $207m.

- NZPA

[JoeKing]

Hehe, guess this new box of soldiers have a lot to learn aye Duncan....
They say you can't teach an old dog new tricks... pity some of these whelps couldn't learn some new tricks from the old dogs.hehehe
Welcome to reality Treetops! le
Cheers
JK.

[trackers]

Very interesting.... PRC has used some of the money to reduce debt AND can fund itself to the end of Jan '08... I'm quite impressed with this announcement actually (don't bite my head off, only time for a quick glance..)

[quote]quote:UPDATED WORKING CAPITAL POSITION

Pike River Coal Limited ("Pike River") wishes to update its working capital position in respect of the development of the Pike River Mine as set out in the New Zealand Investment Statement and Australian Prospectus ("Prospectus") for the initial public offer of shares ("IPO") in Pike River, dated 5 June 2007.

Since the Prospectus was issued, a number of positive events have occurred which have enhanced Pike River's working capital position, so it can meet its stated objective of completing the mine development into first coal.

Working Capital Status Disclosed in Prospectus
In the Prospectus, the directors of Pike River stated that:
- following $65 million being raised in the Offer, Pike River will have sufficient funding to continue with the development of the Mine to the end of October 2007;
- assuming sufficient additional funding can be obtained, Pike River will have sufficient capital to complete the development of the Mine; and
- if the Westpac finance facilities are entered into, funding under those facilities is unlikely to be available prior to March 2008. Accordingly, Pike River plans to arrange interim debt funding to meet its requirements pending funding under those facilities becoming available.
Strong Market Support for IPO
The IPO, which closed on 10 July 2007, has been very successful. The full level of oversubscriptions of $20 million has been achieved and $85 million has been raised, which is expected to provide sufficient working capital to fund Pike River's development costs until 31 January 2008. The success of the IPO has also reduced the amount of funds required from debt facilities or other sources from $79 million to $60 million.

Shareholder Support from New Zealand Oil & Gas ("NZOG")
As disclosed in the Prospectus, finance under the Westpac finance facility is intended to be available upon mine development into first coal, which is expected to be March 2008. It is Pike River's intention to raise interim funding to meet its requirements pending funding under the Westpac facility becoming available.

In order to ensure that Pike River has sufficient working capital beyond January 2008 and in advance of the company obtaining debt facilities from third parties (including the Westpac facility), NZOG has agreed that at any time after 1 January 2008, if Pike River requests funding to meet the costs required to complete the development of the Pike River Mine into first coal production, having expended in connection with the Pike River Coal Mine the $85 million raised under the IPO, NZOG will provide equity funding or other financial support of up to $25 million to Pike River on usual and reasonable arms' length terms and conditions to be agreed. The provision of such additional support is subject only to NZOG obtaining any necessary approvals, which NZOG has committed to use best endeavours to obtain.

Procurement of Commercial Debt Facilities
Pike River long-term debt funding requirements have been reduced as a result of raising the additional $20 million through the IPO. As a result of this, and the additional NZOG commitment, Pike River has significantly improved its commercial position to finalise detailed terms of the relevant finance facility agreements.

The Board considers that Pike River has sufficient working capital to complete the mine development into first coal, at which time Pike River is expected to be able to utilise its financing facilities.

Share Capital
As detailed in the Prospectus dated 5 June 2007, following allotment of shares in the IPO and quotation of the shares on the NZSX, 3,189,320 partly paid shares have been issued to Pike Rive

[bermuda]

Trackers,
You are onto it. Everything on track..and they are in a better position than that forecast before the IPO.

[Scuffer]

Still think the time will be ripe in six months, glad I didn't buy in at IPO they will be better bargains to come along yet.:)

[boysy]

i hope you are wrong lol ive got a vested interest in this one but i belive NZO offering some finance assist in reducing risk of project.:D

[Unicorn]

It looks to me like the WCCC funding was stalled, because PRC had a funding gap between IPO funds running out and Westpac facility becoming available. Not enough funds to produce coal = banks not prepared to loan money for transport chain. These are a couple of major issues that should have been sorted out before the IPO.

Now NZO has stepped in to cover the funding shortfall, which should ensure that the WCCC contract can go ahead. Hopefully there will be an announcement on that in a few days. That will be a big step for PRC, although the delay since the June 29 target may mean the ships (and therefore any real income) are now due Q4 2008. All of the major critical path items may soon be under way, at last.

[Ttops]

quote:Originally posted by Parky


quote:Originally posted by Treetops


quote:Originally posted by Parky

What would stop the australians buying in NZX at the current apparent discount, I am not at all looking forward to the ASX listing

Parky
They are having Much More fun trading ADY thats why!! Check it out 32m + not a piffling 0.1m [:p] Forget the Aussies. They would have been here by now. Take your loss and move on or sit out six months in misery.


Looks like I stirred the pot .258m now


As much as I would like to disagree, you are probably right; the strong demand for coal was a known fact and even with further favourable news of higher demand the SP seem to be sliding. The hype of an IPO, learnt my lesson and perhaps good times ahead to get my average buy price down

Good on you. It is half the battle to fall out of love with a share. You won't pick the bottom. Buy when it starts to up trend which may be months. Good luck

[frostyboy]

there would be some solid $1 resistance on this one i reckon

[Balance]

quote:Originally posted by bermuda

Trackers,
You are onto it. Everything on track..and they are in a better position than that forecast before the IPO.


Cannot really understand then the need for $25m additional funding? Is there a possibility they need a cash issue before the coal gets out of the ground?

[blockhead]

Grab the Prospectus and have a read, they will be approaching Westpac for more loot yet !

[Snow Leopard]

PRC due to trade on ASX from 11am tomorrow (http://sa.iguana2.com/cache/c4a05d56bda774b4dcbc3efad82cdca5/ASX-PRC-279616.pdf)

This one of the many announcements made today on the ASX as is usual for a new listing

regards
Paper Tiger

[shasta]

quote:Originally posted by blockhead

Grab the Prospectus and have a read, they will be approaching Westpac for more loot yet !


Blocky

NZO have already given PRC's bankers (Westpac) a "Letter of Comfort", in relation to further funding requirements, this was noted in the prospectus.

I just wonder how it is treated, NZO already hold convertible notes in PRC.

[the machine]

quote:Originally posted by Paper Tiger

PRC due to trade on ASX from 11am tomorrow (http://sa.iguana2.com/cache/c4a05d56bda774b4dcbc3efad82cdca5/ASX-PRC-279616.pdf)

This one of the many announcements made today on the ASX as is usual for a new listing

regards
Paper Tiger


Thanks PT and now will know who the top 20 shareholders are.

We have still not received our holding advice and considering they have had my $ for a month thats less than ideal.

M

[Bling_Bling]

Bling will buy more PRC if it drops. You guys have no patience. If PRC drops too low it will be a T/O play. This company is a money printing machine. Only need to wait one year.

[PointyHat]

Hi Machine, I received my holding advice from Computershare dated 20th Jul.

[boysy]

I suspect a few investors got carried away and bought on margin or the like. And are now freaking out as the price has gone the wrongway so far that is.

[Hoop]

Machine Maybe you should check your holdings account online at Computershare and make sure all your details are correct, as like PointyHat I too have received my holding advice dated 20th July.

[boysy]

will be interesting to see how listing on the ASX goes today. Do people think this will further undermine share price ?

[Parky]

quote:Originally posted by Treetops


quote:Originally posted by Parky


quote:Originally posted by Treetops


quote:Originally posted by Parky

What would stop the australians buying in NZX at the current apparent discount, I am not at all looking forward to the ASX listing

Parky
They are having Much More fun trading ADY thats why!! Check it out 32m + not a piffling 0.1m [:p] Forget the Aussies. They would have been here by now. Take your loss and move on or sit out six months in misery.


Looks like I stirred the pot .258m now


As much as I would like to disagree, you are probably right; the strong demand for coal was a known fact and even with further favourable news of higher demand the SP seem to be sliding. The hype of an IPO, learnt my lesson and perhaps good times ahead to get my average buy price down

Good on you. It is half the battle to fall out of love with a share. You won't pick the bottom. Buy when it starts to up trend which may be months. Good luck

Market depth tells me its in a downward spiral for the short term, certainly not around the $1 mark everyone is hoping for. I hope it doesnt fall below 90 cents which it looks as it will trend towards

[mibo]

PRC (ASX) market depth at the mo

Buyers Buy Quantity Prices Prices Sell Quantity Sellers
1 20,000 85 99 27,703 1

1 100,000 84 100 5,540 1

2 200,000 80 106 20,000 1

1 15,000 59 0 0 0

1 10,000 50 0 0 0

[boysy]

now buyers in ASX @ $0.95 aus

[troyvdh]

It amuses me that so many folk are so hell bent on loosing dosh..so quickly

[boysy]

are you talking about buyers or sellers ?

[Scrunch]

I think part of the reason for the fall is that PRC revenue is export based. High NZD means less revenue but not less cost which reduces the EBIT. The only problem with this reason is that the current exchange rate is not a very good predictor of the exchange rate in the future when the coal actually starts being exported.

[dsurf]

Not pointing the finger, but did you know!

Schadenfreude (help·info) is a German word meaning 'pleasure taken from someone else's misfortune'.

Usually, it is believed that Schadenfreude has no direct English equivalent. For example, Harper Collins German-English Dictionary translates schadenfreude as "malicious glee or gloating."

[Crypto Crude]

quote:Scrunch-I think part of the reason for the fall is that PRC revenue is export based. High NZD means less revenue but not less cost which reduces the EBIT. The only problem with this reason is that the current exchange rate is not a very good predictor of the exchange rate in the future when the coal actually starts being exported.

Scrunch,
Im not sure how big the high dollar will have on Pike budget, but a high dollar now makes imports cheaper... so if Pike is importing machinery, or tools, equipment, steel, or what not then project will proceed with less chance of further cost overruns...
...
a survey has 11 out of 17 economists predicting OCR to rise tomorrow... the other 6 said that exchange rates will start falling around July next year and beyond... so Exchange rates will cool off starting next year...
[8D]
.^sc

[boysy]

exactly the way the dollar is helping pike out now and by the time PRC starts to produce the dollar is expected to fall. So both the high dollar now and expected lower dollar next year are beneficial to PRC.

[AMR]

Conversely though, it may be more profitable for an investor to put their money into a bank account to collect interest than into PRC shares which won't do anything for a year, so that may be why interest hikes are adversely affecting the stock. I probably should have thought of that before buying.

[duncan macgregor]

The share needs time to find its own level before it settles down to what the market thinks its worth. The speculators in for a quick buck at the start are gone. The traders wont buy back in until it levels off, and shows a buy signal. The people left holding are the ones that swallowed the hype, and will hang on to the bitter end. I cant see the sp getting back to a dollar until the company proves its self with trouble free production. Another start up miner in Australia AGM has gone from 59c to a $1-18 then back to 68c now at 77c so expect volatility guys anything can happen with mining companies. If anything else goes wrong with this start up the price will plummet. Macdunk

[Scuffer]

I take it you won't be buying any time soon then Duncan I was wary from the start on this one, still am I don't like the double handling involving the two purpose built ships sounds very expensive. Lyttelton could load this stuff train to ship has it doesnt need to be blended.:)

[manxman]

Scuffer: The rail route to Lyttelton is fully committed to existing customers like Solid Energy. The bridges date from the 1920s and major work is required to bring the line up to standard. Some of the coal shipped out of Lyttelton already arrives by barge, which probably is more expensive than the Taranaki route.

[Scuffer]

They will be changes at Lyttelton, no barges out of there in ages,if something can be worked out with the rail it would be easier and cheaper to train it straight onto a big bulky, as for the bridges a lot of strengthening has been done. I know for a fact the problem is the tunnel not enough oxygen to run more than two engines through at a time so they are limited to 30 wagons, it was electric but they took the copper lines out and sold it, copper was a good price, bet they wish they hadn't done that.:)

[Parky]

quote:Originally posted by duncan macgregor

The share needs time to find its own level before it settles down to what the market thinks its worth. The speculators in for a quick buck at the start are gone. The traders wont buy back in until it levels off, and shows a buy signal. The people left holding are the ones that swallowed the hype, and will hang on to the bitter end. I cant see the sp getting back to a dollar until the company proves its self with trouble free production. Another start up miner in Australia AGM has gone from 59c to a $1-18 then back to 68c now at 77c so expect volatility guys anything can happen with mining companies. If anything else goes wrong with this start up the price will plummet. Macdunk

The difference is there was much more certainty with PRC which was factored into the price, and thus I dont see much of a volatility for a little while. It will continue to slide slowly until closer to production (my thoughts).

[Oiler]

Shrewdie you are on to it...PRC "will" be busy signing supply contracts with overseas suppliers. millions of dollars!!!
Scuffer... as you say, they cannot get anymore trains through the tunnel or increase the number of wagons they pull because the engines are starved for oxygen in the tunnel and have stalled and run backwards down the hill.

The high dollar for Pike is a plus and I expect to see the dollar down next year when PRC starts selling coal.

Having said that my guess is that exports wont be until 2009. :D

[Scuffer]

Yeh! an this one is a runaway train.:)

[digger]

Unicorn,we all have to hand it to you. Your pick of 94 cents was the lowest and was spot on.I do not like it but that is what has happened.I may top up a few more when the tide turns.Well done in your ana-lysis.

[tim23]

What hype Duncan? - they issued a prospectus that all could digest and decide on - a few weeks back you were complaining that NOG didn't issue enough hype/publicity or is your memory convenient and/or fading?

[AMR]

Can anyone make anything notable out of the top 20 list? Anything terribly exciting?

[Bling_Bling]

Everyone DUMP your shares NOW! :D Bling wants to buy at much lower prices.

[Scuffer]

Hey Bling I don't think these guys are in a laughing mood more worried and down right depressed:(

[upside_umop]

pike will be buying what they can overseass now with the high exchange rate, but being a company with advisers (economists who havent picked the exchange rate the past 6 years) will have made pike hedge around the 70 cent mark, where people thought it couldnt get much worse. dont expect too much cost saving from this high dollar...

[Unicorn]

quote:Originally posted by digger

Unicorn,we all have to hand it to you. Your pick of 94 cents was the lowest and was spot on.I do not like it but that is what has happened.I may top up a few more when the tide turns.Well done in your ana-lysis.


Digger,

That pick was for opening day, when it actually closed at 102c so was a fair way out. It was also a drop from my initial 114c, which was based on a reasonable level of oversubscription then lowered after early reports that they had come up short at about $80M. Because they needed the money I guessed they would take everything on offer, and leave no unsatisfied demand, which is why I felt the very poor 94c might eventuate on opening day. In the event "considerably more" than the $85M was subscribed - but I suspect that this may have been a fairly liberal use of "considerable".

There has been some pretty good news since listing...
1. The extra $20M is in the bank.
2. Exchange rate is high, which will help control costs.
3. Funding of the mine is now vastly more assured.
4. Coal price looks increasingly promising going forward.

Hopefully the WCCC finance will be signed off very soon and the long lead transport chain components will get under way. That is the last really major obstacle to becoming a profitable business. There are plenty of other potential issues, but not being able to fund a transport chain would be a real killer.

There should have been time between offer close and listing to finalise the WCCC finance. They have had years to negotiate the loan for WCCC, conditional on PRC having access to an agreed level of funding. At offer close it became known that PRC had $85M in new equity and there was an opportunity to announce the $25M from NZO. That should have been enough to allow the WCCC finance to be signed off. Having the transport chain under way would have supported the share price on listing and got the company off to a much more positive start. Instead we now have to choose between "management is not performing" or "there are other obstacles to the transport chain funding". Neither of these is at all palatable for shareholders, so something needs to be done very quickly.

[patrick]

Please may i have a 6 month extension to my 1.32 first day closing price? Time cures many things.

[seagull]

One could feel the the excitement pre float. My entitlement went into NZO. I was influenced by Unicorn and Digger. I remember Digger wishing the float was nearer production - say Nov or Dec. He was right in my humble opinion. Cheers

[Nitaa]

Unicorn.

I have followed your posts for some time. Thanks for all the informative posts on this thread and others. You keep it simple, call it as you see it and you seem to know your stuff. Keep up the good work and i look forward in reading your postings in the future.

upside. I think that NZO hedged the currency at about 70 cents but im not for how long or what it applies to. If this applies to Pike, Tui or Kupe then im not sure

[Snow Leopard]

I expected that in the short term PRC would be sitting at a premium to the listing price but would fall below in the first few months.
It seemed inevitable given the nature of the project.
So I am on the one paw surprised that it is down here already and on the other paw accept that the share market is an uncertain place.

[zorba]

.

Projections for robust coking coal prices in 2008 .....

From 4th Quarter results: CNW Group (Canada) June 2007:

"Outlook .....

In recent years, economic growth particularly in developing countries has
been strong. Continuing transportation infrastructure issues and scarcity of
key mining inputs such as skilled labour, mining equipment and in some areas
basic inputs like water have significantly impacted producers' abilities to
meet the increasing demand for hard coking coal. Rail and port infrastructure
constraints in the major coal producing countries have limited the ability to
deliver adequate coal to meet demand. These infrastructure constraints have
been further exacerbated by severe weather disruptions. As a result, the
global supply of hard coking coal is slowly adjusting to increased demand.

This trend has been in evidence in 2007, with spot price settlements moving
upwards as the year has progressed. Additionally, industry operating costs,
particularly with respect to inputs like labour, power, fuel and
transportation costs, including ocean freight, have increased over the last
few years and are not expected to retreat. There are no indications that these
trends will diminish prior to settling prices for the 2008 coal year and a
number of industry analysts are projecting hard coking coal prices to rise
back to the US$110-120 level in the next coal year."

http://www.newswire.ca/en/releases/archive/June2007/29/c2991.html
.

See also report by Bloomberg on Centennial Coal's positive outlook for 2008:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=a.79UZV1.28U

[geezy]

i expect PRC to hit around the 80s as people continue to be spooked by high NZD and also risks along the way. as i can recall institutional buyers are not allowed to buy pre production stocks?

Would add when it hits around the 80cents mark. I still have great faith in this stock as coal seems to be a strong demand commidity for the short/medium term.

DISC hold PRC since IPO

[bk]

quote:Originally posted by Paper Tiger

I expected that in the short term PRC would be sitting at a premium to the listing price but would fall below in the first few months.
It seemed inevitable given the nature of the project.
So I am on the one paw surprised that it is down here already and on the other paw accept that the share market is an uncertain place.



good to hear that great cats can get it wrong too - makes this little rodent feel better, having to survive a long winter before a rich harvest of (coal) nuts will come down from heaven.

(but then again, there is always NZO, ready to start feeding us with a warm stream of golden oil)

[duncan macgregor]

We can all get it wrong, nobody ever gets it right all the time. If you get all starry eyed about a company, thats when the fall is most likely to happen. PRC has a long hard road in front of it before it delivers its first shipment. The sp will go no where for at least a year, even if all the targets are met. I would think the low eighties will be reached before $1-10 is hit, with very low liquidity. Its not a traders share, with to much downside risk, much better opportunities in the mining sector in the ASX. I got one wrong and two right in the last 3 weeks look them up some of you guys need a lesson in objectivity. Bought AUZ sold at a 6% loss my 5% stop loss got swampted[V]. Bought AGM at 69c-70c sold at 80c:). Bought MRX at 13.5c-14c now 18c still hold:D. Never fall in love with a company watch the liquidity get ready to dump them and move on.
When you lose your objectivity get out the market its not for you. Macdunk

[AMR]

Not a very good introduction into the world of IPOs for me. I will probably look at averaging down when it gets into the low 80s as most people here are saying.

[Toddy]

quote:Originally posted by xxamr_corpxx

Not a very good introduction into the world of IPOs for me. I will probably look at averaging down when it gets into the low 80s as most people here are saying.


You would be better off averaging down on your FPH.

[tim23]

Duncan - I think you make fair points but you seem to be a trader - some wish to buy/hold and ride the dips. I guess in this sector you are looking to own the next Woodside, BHP etc. After 5 days trading you can hardly predict than PRC is not for traders can you?

[duncan macgregor]

quote:Originally posted by xxamr_corpxx

Not a very good introduction into the world of IPOs for me. I will probably look at averaging down when it gets into the low 80s as most people here are saying.
Averaging down is not admitting you got it wrong in the first place. If a share is going down, get out, and start again. I just sold the last of MCR was my best company a moment ago. Bought all the way up from $2-15 and sold, all the way down from $5-00 to get right out at $3-84 in seven months. Its only a bloody company you will get it wrong sometimes. Why some of you people get so worked up about a company is beyond me. Averaging down is an idiots way of distributing your wealth to the greedy speculators. I just bought PEM you should get with it look it up. Macdunk

[dsurf]

MacDunk - What you say is right for traders and you give very good advice for people wanting to trade.

Not all people want to be traders for a variety of reasons. If these people are sensible they will not get stressed about short term trends because they are investing long term and may measure their returns over a five, ten or twenty year period.

PRC is a 20+ year project (assuming no calamities). I suspect that the bulk of the 85mill shares was invested for the medium (say 3 -5 year period or longer). For these people the shareprice is irrelevent today, next month or at the end of the year.

I also suspect that when the 5? mill or so of shares that is still held by short term punters who are not very nimble since they still hold has been cleared out that PRC will meander along between 95c & 105c. Given that the volume is falling on a daily basis this could take around a month.

So why would a medium / long term investor want to sell at a loss 5 days into a multi + year investment?

[duncan macgregor]

DSURF,Why would they not want to sell you might ask. Time is opportunity lost. You would not stick your savings under the bed for the same reason. The few people that made money out of this so far were traders selling to the blue eyed boys who dont understand the practical side of mining start ups. I simply cant understand a fundamental share investor that was stupid enough to get lumbered with this. They dig a tunnel, build roads, bridges, spend 11 million getting power to the site, then truck it to one port, to barge it to another port, to ship out. How long do you wait before you get a divi?. It is a practical mans nightmare you bought into, some of you even mention averaging down already. This wont be a good trading share, only people wanting out to the averaging down brigade with very little volatility, and a dropping share price. Macdunk

[ratkin]

Spot on , it will however be a fantastic Share trader website stock.
The more rubbish the company the longer the thread.

[boysy]

ratkin aint you into CHA thats a bit hypocritical dont you think. I think the Chinese are more likely to buy this "rubbish" than Japanese are to buy CHA:D

[hairdresser]

Right on MacGregor. THere are plenty of mining stocks in Australia that are producing right now.

Dsmurf - consider you bought PRC at $1.00 and in a years time it is $1.50. It's a return of around 1c per week.

You are also tying up captial that could be used more productively [IMO].

And with interest rates at 10% you need 1.10 in a year to be breaking even.

Managed funds and investment advisors like people to hold and hope as they clip the ticket on the value of the assets they manage.

[jonny5]

Agreed, given Asia's affinity for "Fennel seed and honey soy" drinks, as opposed to the traditional OJ.

Nonetheless, wrong thread.

Just rambling. Must be almost home time.

[ratkin]

Charlies has a mere 500 odd posts , the biggest which have had contributions in the last year are.

NZO 18442
Feltex (FTX) 2271
42 Below 1685
GPG 1663
BLT 1417
Heritage Gold 1536

GPG is just there because the thread has been going years. The others are typical share trader website stocks. Feltex and blis being standouts. seven years ago the list would of included such gems as ITC and that old favoutite Aquaria 21 , remember them? they were very popular.

[dsurf]

Mac Dunk - did you read my post?

Q Why would they not want to sell you might ask.

A Because they are investing for 3 to 5 years + not for 5 days

Q Time is opportunity lost.

A Only if you are trading with the funds - If it is a medium term investment how can time be lost

Q You would not stick your savings under the bed for the same reason.

A No the bed pays, 1 - the inflation rate per year. The prospectus hinted that coal is valuable & over 50% had been pre sold at a yet to be know price (which Ausi coal companies think will be higher than the price mentioned in the prospectus for 2008)

Q The few people that made money out of this so far were traders

A Very true - good for them - how do you know I didn't join them

Q selling to the blue eyed boys who dont understand the practical side of mining start ups.

A blue eyed?? definately a bad call by them buying into a diving IPO

Q I simply cant understand a fundamental share investor that was stupid enough to get lumbered with this.

A Depends on your time frame and whether you understand the concept of NPV etc

Q They dig a tunnel, build roads, bridges, spend 11 million getting power to the site, then truck it to one port, to barge it to another port, to ship out.

A That has been the plan for a long time

Q How long do you wait before you get a divi?.

A 18 to 24 mths IMO

Q It is a practical mans nightmare you bought into,

A By practical man you mean what? Nightmare does not happen until the investment return is known & sorry to labour the point but for a medium term investor that may be 5 years away & not 5 days

Q some of you even mention averaging down already.

A So what

Q This wont be a good trading share,

A I agree

Q only people wanting out to the averaging down brigade with very little volatility, and a dropping share price.

A The averaging down brigade is who? The share price appears to be stabilising to me with the amount fallen reducing each day, as one would expect as the nervous nellies bail out due to "expert" advice

[bermuda]

dsurf,
Nice post.I didnt take up my full entitlement but wanted to support the company from day one.I wont be trading.Just put them away for a nice surprise.

Great Mine Manager
Finance in order
Best coking coal in the world
Steel consumption increasing
Coking coal prices firming
Committed shareholders
Exchange rate forecast to drop
Low p/e

This project will succeed.Patience will be required.

[ratkin]

Holders seem to be saying that patience is required , this seems to mean "the shareprice wont go up for a while but we are prepared to wait"

Why not just wait on the outside? In the meantime you can take advantage of our great term deposit rates , also buy around 20% more shares for the money at around .80cents

[tim23]

Thanks - I will, I think your comments about sentiment are fine - but sometimes easier said than done!

[bermuda]

I suppose I misread the public.
I presumed that most would have had a pretty good read through the prospectus and could see that this IPO had to be priced at the low end of the scale because of all the delays and negativity it had before listing.

Because of this it had to warrant investor attention...and it did...being over subscribed..and I am talking about the BIG boys here.

I am very happy to be a shareholder. I have met the Chairman of directors,John Dow, the Mine Manager,Peter Whittall and Gordon Ward and having had a look at the coal market for some years I really believe this company will greatly exceed expectations....

But I have to admit negativity beats everything.
( That's why I try not to go there.)

[upside_umop]

but its ok to average down once an uptrend has developed. macdunk you do look at underlying fundamentals of a company too right? like i've heard you say supply/demand etc before, and coal seems to be in good demand. only prob is pike just aint producing yet.

so if an untrend developed in pike, would you be in? i mean, nzd is on shaky ground after today after the rb announcement and coal prices are look to be steady by analysts forecasts. just listed on asx, so more liquidity could develop. a few things may start to come right for pikey...

[cjhaigh]

Given the great speculation for this IPO and the relatively average/poor initial result (not that some didn't expect it) where does this leave the BFW IPO off the back of very little interest and general ridcule? (on these forums anyway...)

Should be a novelty day on the market tomorrow..

I agree dsurf btw, some good thoughts above

[tim23]

Dsurf - excellent response. I have said before traders are still investors/holders of a stock even for the short time.
Hairdresser - if Pike went from $1 to $1.50 in a year that would be superb even if you borrowed all the money. e.g $1000 plus $100 holding costs = $400 profit; I would be happy with that and if you are not tell me a better deal?!

[hairdresser]

Tim

AAPL rose $14 today after its Q3 ER.

AKAM dropped $5 today after its ER.

Both not on the NZX though...

Cheers

[tim23]

Assume they are US stocks? I'm not sure if you answered my question? Is a forecast 40% net return pretty reasonable or not or you another Duncan who was unhappy with NOG returning 26% that I would also be thrilled to get!

[Balance]

Only talk still is of PRC going up and the monies to be made. What if it continues down and in a year's time, is 50 cents?

It's critical to consider the down as well as up to make investment decision when using leverage. It's not only looking at the upside but the downside as well.

[tim23]

We already have some downside happening - you usually buy a share beacuse you think its going to improve in value or sell for opposite reason so the balance is here I think.

[Unicorn]

Bermuda,

You say "Finance in order". I disagree.

Pike is a $300M project, about $205M for the mine and $95M for the transport chain. The mine finances appear to be in excellent order, with a lot of equity now in place, and loan arrangements well in hand for the very manageable amount of debt that will be required. That is all great news.

But finance for the vital transport chain has not gone to plan. At this point in time there appears to be no finance available to cover one third of the cost of the project, and this includes what seem to be critical path elements. We know that the WCCC contract will be at least a month late being signed. As there is no information to the contrary, it is prudent to assume that there will be a corresponding delay to delivery of transport chain components, and therefore to volume shipments of coal. This puts the full income stream back into Q4 2008 at earliest. But given the failure to deliver this soon after the prospectus was issued, it is not unreasonable to assume that there are other unreliable estimates in the prospectus - which indicates it will be at least Q1 2009 before the expected income stream is achieved.

The mine appears to be progressing well now, but the company as a whole is only as strong as its weakest link. They desperately need to sort out the transport chain, before they earn the reputation as a non-performing company. Investors can live with a non earning company, provided it is making the expected progress towards generating an income. But the market will inevitably mark down a non-earning, non-performing company. Why do they not offer some assurance that they have managed their way around delays to WCCC financing impacting on critical path elements? Surely they are now running some contingency arrangements to minimise delays to delivery of the first coastal ship - why not tell the market what they are doing, before they destroy their own reputation.

[upside_umop]

do they not have backing from nzog unicorn?
people are stressing about this transport, but there is no point spending that money now as its not a necessity as yet. its better off having the money in the bank than spending it now. but that all depends on how long the chain takes. anybody know how long it will take to get the transport/roading part done?

[bermuda]

Unicorn,
Yes I have a sentiment with your wise words but with committed shareholders there wont be a problem. The Indians already have the figures on their books!! Both Tonnages and equity.

I have had a good exposure to Indians and believe me they know what's going on.

[hairdresser]

Sure Tim

I'll try and explain what I mean. My approach is a little bit different to what the mainstream investment community preaches [who I note always clip the ticket whatever return the investor gets].

First lets ignore leverage, the same principles apply either way.

Second bear in mind I trade on the NASDAQ and I really like it. I find it both fun and profitable. I am not encouraging anyone to do this it is definitely not for the faint hearted.

What is important to me is how much cash an asset can generate over a period of time, the most cash in the shortest time is the best. I think most people would agree.

I'll give you a real life analogy from the salon. The figures are rounded to help me do the maths

In the salon we sell retail products ie shampoos, styling products etc. We carry a certain level of stock. And we make say 50% margin. We carry $10,000 of retail stock valued at cost] and we have a stock turn of 5x ie we carry just over 2 months stock.

Becasue we keep turing the asset usually at a profit, [but not always [we have been killed on some lines and some of the stock just sits there gathering dust but its important for us to carry a full range], the profit comes in at $50,000, or a 500% retuen on the average value of the asset. Almost enough to pay the rent.

IMO the same principles apply to financial assets. Turn them over quickly at a profit.

I'll give you a real example of a stock I traded between Jan and May this year on the NAZ.

Started at $43 and closed close to $43 over the period. If you had held you would have got no return. While trading I generated $18 per share net of commissions by being both long and short. I didn't make money on every trade thats for sure
I was long when the China Crisis happened and the DOW and NAZ tanked real quick, I think the DOW dropped 400pts in about 30 minutes. My stock dropped $2.50 in the same time but I held on for another couple of days and the market bounced back.

Apart from the timeframe the same investment principles apply.

Don't take a position that could really hurt you if it bellies up.
Do your research.
Don't be afraid to get out if the trades not working for you [IMO this principle applies to PRC the listing on the ASX didn't help and if it can't generate any interest at launch I think its a pretty safe bet you will be able to buy in later at a cheaper price.]

Also consider the salon analogy if you have bottles of shampoo that doesn't sell you are better off selling it off at a loss and putting the cash to a better use.

Don't try and juggle too many balls in the air at the same time.

Anyway each to his own, and that's why I don't get excited about the prospect of a 40% gain in a year.

PS IMO the worst investment you can make is finance company you are essentially taking equity risk for a money market deposit rate plus change.

[Unicorn]

quote:Originally posted by upside_umop

do they not have backing from nzog unicorn?
people are stressing about this transport, but there is no point spending that money now as its not a necessity as yet. its better off having the money in the bank than spending it now. but that all depends on how long the chain takes. anybody know how long it will take to get the transport/roading part done?


As far as I am aware WCCC does not have any backing from NZO.

The money does not need to be spent now, but it needs to be available before contracts can be entered into. Banks will not lend money to an enterprise unless they feel it has a good probability of being profitable. Unless all components of the transport chain are catered for, banks will not lend on individual components. Trucks are not of much value if there are no ships to move their coal on, ships are no use if the ports are too shallow etc etc.

A lot of the components of the transport chain are long lead time items. Dredges need to be booked, and these are scarce and specialised machines. Slots in shipyards need to be confirmed, along with key components like engines (which are not off the shelf items). Wharf upgrades need to be designed, approved and built.

The Prospectus indicated that it would be the end of Q3 2008 before the first ship could be delivered, and that was based on 29 June WCCC finance approval. 15 months does not strike me as being at all excessive for an almost $100M project.

[waaihoek]

.
Unicorn,

The really big volumes of coal generated by Pike and in need of the full capacity of the transport chain will kick in when the hydraulic miners are operational with target production at 0.8 - 0.9 Mtpa (see Prospectus p.42).

Prospectus also indicates (Table 8, p.34) that start of hydraulic mining is targeted for late Q1 2009. This is when the pressure will come on the transport chain. Prior to that volumes in 2H 2008 are projected to be in the 0.2 - 0.4 Mtpa range from roadheaders and continuous mining.

These lower volumes in 2H 2008 can no doubt be handled by a variety of temporary options including some spare capacity on the line to Lyttleton.

With the IPO now out of the way, the final contract negotiations between PRC and WCCC can now be finalised ....... and then WCCC has 18 months to get everything lined up -- for sure they will have to pull finger.

W

[Scuffer]

Lyttelton would love to shift coal for pike they have time in between coal ships and have coal loading facilities sat idly in between coal ships for days sometimes weeks.They would gladly do it for the right price a good company is always keen to make a dollar, storage is the only prob for Lyttelton to shift Pikes coal, but they can load it at 1500 tons per hour.Where are those shares in LPC.:D

[AMR]

Unicorn,

I have just sent off an email to them asking when the deal with WCCC is expected to be done.

I just had a look at the gantt chart in the prospectus, it has no mention of vessel delivery? Only two fields are greymouth and taranaki port upgrades.

[Scuffer]

I can tell you guys those ships will take over a year to build so if they are not being built now it probably is going to be a long wait.:)

[Unicorn]

quote:Originally posted by xxamr_corpxx

Unicorn,

I have just sent off an email to them asking when the deal with WCCC is expected to be done.

I just had a look at the gantt chart in the prospectus, it has no mention of vessel delivery? Only two fields are greymouth and taranaki port upgrades.


Vessel delivery is covered in 3.8.3 Intra-Port Shipping "The shipyard contract has been completed (subject to finance) for the two vessels, engines have been secured, and delivery of the first vessel is expected at the end of the third quarter 2008."

[Unicorn]

Waaihoek,

Calendar year 2008 production is planned to be .24Mt, with .05Mt being shipped through preliminary arrangements. That means .19Mt to be moved in Q4 2008 (all going to plan), with about 1.5 ships in operation. That is a planned shipping throughput equal to about 1Mtpa with 2 ships running - so it looks like the plan is for the ships to be fully utilised as soon as they arrive.

With an annual capacity of .2 to .4 Mtpa, and operating for most of 2008, the roadheaders and continuous miners should be able to deliver the .24Mt to stockpiles during 2008 for the ships to catch up with on arrival. Then in early 2009 the hydraulic miner production is added, keeping the ships working at planned capacity.

All this indicates the ships are critical path items.

[bermuda]

Sometimes I think you guys worry too much.

The mine will be finished by a very able Mine Manager and the coal will be delivered and sold to countries crying out for the best coking coal in the world.

Anyone with a reasonable knowledge of the coking coal industry would know that this is a winner.

[dsurf]

couldn't agree more Bermuda - the "worries" are steadily decreasing & cash in the bank has them at least halved for me.

[Crypto Crude]

quote:mackdadunk,
Bought AUZ sold at a 6% loss my 5% stop loss got swampted.
If a share is going down, get out, and start again.
I just bought PEM you should get with it look it up. Macdunk


Yesterday PEM fell 4.4% or 20cents per share, so PEM cant be far off hitting your stop loss then huh...?.... Mackdadunk, you have only been telling us about PEM for 1 day now, and if you apply the same strategy to PEM as you did to AUZ, then you will most likely be selling today... 1 day....

you should have had a closer look at RMI when I PMed you about 3-4 weeks ago and its now up 200% since then...:D...

anyway, mackdadunk you can now focus more of your energys on Pike and substitute away from NZO... But.... PIKE will eventually come around in the end and people here will remember you for your stance that 'will end up' turning against you if you go negative and all...... Just a tip from the shrewd.... You see, if you attack stocks like TEL, you will never go wrong... stocks like this one will come back to bite you in the end....
[8D]
.^sc

[duncan macgregor]

SHREWDY, You are quite right about PEM going lower today. I moved my investment portfolio away from only holding nickel stocks. Pem is a long term hold, AGM, and MRX two of my other long term holds for my investment account. I expect the market as a whole to go into a downtrend along with the NZ dollar. The trading account however is waiting on the market over reaction to buy up big. When you invest long term you weigh up your stock against the market level, plus any other influences, such as value of the currency against your own.
I am left with a choice sell the lot or go down a bit with the general market i choose to leave a bit in and wait to pick up the bargains.
PRC as i stated long before it came to the market was not a buy in my book with to many obstacles to overcome for what it is. The NZ dollar dropping lower will be slightly in its favour but not as much as most people expect. Fuel price rises = shipping, mining production cost rises, less increased price for the product. NZO price might come down a bit to tempt me very soon for a bit of fun, but watch those options the blue eyed people will get left holding the parcel when the music stops. Macdunk

[Crypto Crude]

Mackdadunk,
I dont believe in stop losses, When I bought my first parcel of NWE at an average of 16.8cents... I was away on holiday and the chinese market crashed, my NWE fell to 13cents... 80% of my portfolio on the line and I was flipping out... I didnot sell or even think of doing so.... not even once... stop losses would have ruined my year...

as long as you can and/or are prepared to sell (dump) your shares if need be then stop losses are for whimps...[:p]...
sometimes with stocks like AUZ you have to sit the downside out before the good comes around... Now I aint no god at picking Nickle stocks, When I looked at AUZ it looked great.... And Im sure you got in for that very same reason...
mackdadunk, you have to be patient, I have had to be patient with every single share I have ever held apart from one... highly volitile stocks like the ones you have picked are just as likely to drop 5% first, as much as they are likely to rise 5%....
dont be a whimp mackdadunk and forget about stop losses...
[8D]
..^sc

[duncan macgregor]

quote:[i]Originally posted by Shrewd Crude[/i
dont be a whimp mackdadunk and forget about stop losses...
[8D]
..^sc
SHREWDY, Old Macdunk aint no wimp[8D]. JEEZE i had half my money on SMM if you remember this year picked it dead right. I bought AGM at 59c sold at $1-05 bought back in at 70c sold at 80c. This game is not for wimps its for people that make a decision and do it. When you get something that works for you stick to it, until you find something better. I notice you are smart enough to avoid PRC, hope you are smart enough to get rid of those options before hector is drilled.
A company that dousnt perform to my expectation gets dumpted quick smart, stop loss or no stop loss. I dont care if the company makes land mines, or sells grass seed its only there for one reason in my book, and thats to give me a high return in the shortest time. Keep an eye on MRX its going to be a good one. MACDUNK

[Crypto Crude]

quote:duncan macgregor
SHREWDY,
1...Old Macdunk aint no wimp.
2...This game is not for wimps its for people that make a decision and do it.
3...I notice you are smart enough to avoid PRC,
4...hope you are smart enough to get rid of those options before hector is drilled.
5...A company that dousnt perform to my expectation gets dumpted quick smart, stop loss or no stop loss.
6...I dont care if the company makes land mines, or sells grass seed its only there for one reason in my book, and thats to give me a high return in the shortest time.

1... I know you aint no wimp mackdadunk, Im just trying to wind you up because thats when you are in your funniest mood...
2... my statement still stands...wimps I tells yah... wimps
3...[8D]
4...I think I will be selling down but will hold a small position for HEctor...
5...true...
6...and thats why I continue to hold nzood :D...
[8D]
.^sc

[tim23]

Duncan - today when the market has got the jitters (NOG exempted!!) you are holder, when the markets on fire ou are a rampant trader - gee I reckon you're confused and got a bit of the colly wobbles today old fella!?

[duncan macgregor]

quote:Originally posted by tim23

Duncan - today when the market has got the jitters (NOG exempted!!) you are holder, when the markets on fire ou are a rampant trader - gee I reckon you're confused and got a bit of the colly wobbles today old fella!?
TIM, nothing wobbly about me young fella. Been there done that seen it all before. You will find the only people who get caught out are the people who think they are right all the time, regardless of what the market is telling them., You will find in a cross the board downtrend,the only time to worry is when your company is dropping faster than the index.
Half my money is out the market, the other half is an investor account in companies in good solid market positions. I am over 100% up in seven months with half my money out the market, so stop and think about it, if i lost the lot i would only be back to where i started in jan 3rd. Dont rubbishh a winner for telling you in advance how to do it, learn how to beat the bastard young fella. I think youg SHREWDY is on to it, he will end up way in front of some of you hold at any cost investors.
Tell us all in advance like SHREWDY and i do tim, then come back and have a go, thats if you are big enough. Macdunk

[tim23]

Exactly the response I expected totally ego driven - Is Shrewd your newphew or your grandson? PS So you are a trader again - make up your mind old timer!

[bermuda]

Macdunk,I told you some time ago that I value your posts.
Shrewdy is a Rhodes Scholar of outperforming oilers. I have met him and was hugely impressed.Bubbling enthusiasm.Spades a spade and with a smile.
Betta all come to the Xchange August 11th

[tim23]

I enjoy their posts too - but each opinion is just that an opinion - I certainly except that some are obviously beter informed and I include Duncan among those.

[Wiremu]

tim23

My opinion is that if you except Dunc is better informed then others I agree with you.

However if you accept that Dunc is better informed I have to ask than what?

[Balance]

McDouall Stuart had a valuation of $125m for NZO's shares in PRC in Nov 2005. Based upon NZO's 31% now in the listed PRC, the stake is now worth only $57m - a reduction of 53% in valuation! Can McDouall Stuart be that wrong?

[Unicorn]

quote:Originally posted by Balance


McDouall Stuart had a valuation of $125m for NZO's shares in PRC in Nov 2005. Based upon NZO's 31% now in the listed PRC, the stake is now worth only $57m - a reduction of 53% in valuation! Can McDouall Stuart be that wrong?


Yes, they can be that wrong.

They also thought NZO share of Tui was worth $41M, and Kupe just $21M.

Over time, costs, prices, and exchange rates have moved significantly.

[Ttops]

This wont be a good trading share, only people wanting out to the averaging down brigade with very little volatility, and a dropping share price. Macdunk

Spot on , it will however be a fantastic Share trader website stock.
The more rubbish the company the longer the thread. Ratkin

PRC is a 20+ year project (assuming no calamities). I suspect that the bulk of the 85mill shares was invested for the medium (say 3 -5 year period or longer). For these people the shareprice is irrelevent today, next month or at the end of the year. DSurf

DSURF,Why would they not want to sell you might ask. Time is opportunity lost. You would not stick your savings under the bed for the same reason. The few people that made money out of this so far were traders selling to the blue eyed boys who dont understand the practical side of mining start ups.



As more punters who got inticed by the hype of brokers sell (see Balance) and didn't really understand the share is a long term steady earner requiring patience and resilience when the bad news comes out and there will be some inevitably: buying opportunities will arise. I think it is a fascinating thread Ratkin to understand the suckers out there who bought this share for the wrong reason. I reckon they thought it would give them an immediate increase in sp and be a long term hold. Instead they see it falling below value and have to wait maybe six months to see any gain. Must be depressing but a real lesson to learn from.

Know why you are buying a share and if it doesn't succeed get out rather than just sit and watch it fall. Otherwise sit back and hope it has no problems. Its bottom drawer or get out imo.

I won't be buying anytime soon thats for sure while there are so many suckers ready to sell in the death spiral of bad news from anywhere.

[Crypto Crude]

quote:tim23-Exactly the response I expected totally ego driven - Is Shrewd your newphew or your grandson?


tim,
we are all family here.... the Sharetrader family infact...
even you fit in somewhere...
you would be the annoying little sister who keeps badgering biting and chomping like an alligator...
with teeth like these...:D:D...
chomp chomp bite bite...

Tim,
give us your very best share pick mate... If your pick that you give to us starts to perform then you can start chomp chomping and being annoying again...
until then please chill out....
[8D]
.^sc

[Steve]

quote:Originally posted by Shrewd Crude

Tim,
give us your very best share pick mate... If your pick that you give to us starts to perform then you can start chomp chomping and being annoying again...
until then please chill out....
[8D]
.^sc

Hey SC, just have a look if Tim has an entry in the share comp to see what he has been picking...

[tim23]

Didn't enter the comp - for what its worth of the 12 stocks I hold I'm liking the look of GRD and DES on the ASX. And of course I'm pretty keen on NOG!!

[dsurf]

Tim - Don't let them get you down! You say what you want. Remember you can't have "winners" without "losers".

[boysy]

tunnel progress for the week 40m ending 30\7


http://www.pike.co.nz/about-pike-river-coal/Tunnel-scaled.jpg/view

[Bling_Bling]

Dump yo shares now!!!! OMG it is the end of the world! LOL

Seriously, if oyu dont believe in a company, then sell it. But if you do, buy more if it bottoms out. Coal will be like gold in the future with oil prices uptrend continue its climb.

[boysy]

And our coal is some of the best in the world it must be remembered :)

[Balance]

Do not read too much about how great PRC is and how high the IPO price is going to be any more. Keep the faith nevertheless, folks as the price that really matters is when the coal comes out of the ground. Just like an election.

1 year plus to go before production. Good news will be discounted and bad news acted upon. 80 cents is where it looks like going with investors bailing out. The other big miners are busy opening up new mines so it's a guess what coal price will be when PRC's coal come out of the ground. This is what is driving the sellers.

[bermuda]

Hi Balance,
I have read and researched the coking coal market carefully and just cannot agree that the price of coking coal will head south.

IMHO there is consistent firming and a strong correlation with Iron ore pricing which could firm by 25% in the next round of negotiations.

See also my post of 26/7.Cheers

[Balance]

Bermuda, I have no opinion about where coking price is going to be in a year's time or two years' time. Resource prices can turn overnight as those who got caught in the 1970s and early 1990s can attest. All I am saying is that there's uncertainty until the coal is out of the ground and sold. That's what is going to drive the market. Strange, isn't it? There were plenty of buyers happy to take IPO stock at $1.00 but not at 90 cents? Something to do with investors unhappy with PRC for allocating the whole $85m of stock?

[Crypto Crude]

Does anyone have an opinion on protests to the mine?
I have already heard something along those lines?
Dont make me name the other NZ coal Mine that has had massive protests and isnt there another one on strike because of wages? and what about the snails?...
Wages will hopefully be high at Pike because PRC wants to retain the capable, and at the stage of first production, wage expense will not be a problem.
NZO rose today, PRC fell... good news for those holding NZO only...
on corresponding notes...
PRC hit all time lows today...
[8D]
.^sc

[tim23]

Balance thats not unusual that an IPO settles beneath its offer price - Contact and Auckland Airport are 2 I can recall; Pikes just not deemed to be as sexy as it was a few weeks back but time will tell.

[joey]

quote:Originally posted by bermuda

Hi Balance,
I have read and researched the coking coal market carefully and just cannot agree that the price of coking coal will head south.

IMHO there is consistent firming and a strong correlation with Iron ore pricing which could firm by 25% in the next round of negotiations.

See also my post of 26/7.Cheers



Bermunda, Are you old enough to have been around during the 1970's? Then the same arguments were displayed. Resources were going to go "through the roof". then a very deep recession hit the good old USA, and resources dropped like a rock in a pool of water; and cash became king.Then, as now,it is a very wise move to look at your asset allocation and not have too much capital in one sector or share. If you do have a highly concentrated portfolio, you must watch the portfolio like a hawk.

I think this time a resources boom is happening and will be long lasting (maybe 10 to 15 years).

However from my long experience and study of equity markets, I have found that it is exactly when people or investors are so sure of their opinion or themselves that the market turns.

I like your confidence Burmunda, but just realize you are not dealing with a rational or mechanical body. You are dealing with a market made up of very irrational things called human beings(investors).
All newbys out there should pause before they think this or that share is the road to great wealth. If you are after that, stick to Lotto.

I feel Pike may be a wonderful investment, all I am trying to say is understand the risk and reward involved in each investment.

Go carefully my son, and watch it out there!!

DESC: ANZ, Platinum International, Fisher Funds, Growth Fund. WPL.

[geezy]

Good ol USA isnt the only super power economy these days except for their currency.

When the market is bullish with plenty of quick buck to be made else where, i guess theres where the money is. While people couldnt wait for a long term project like PRC, it is only understable people are keen to throw the stock and invest else where while waitin for it to go into production.

[jdg]

i'm sorry to see prc softening after listing. i had high hopes for the venture a year or two back. however, the constant delays were perhaps a warning bell that all was not well. for me, the final straw was when the three independent directors resigned en masse. i sold out of nzo at that point and turned my back on the lot (although holding a swag of ppp). notwithstanding all this, the mine project does have attractive qualities (long life, excellent quality coking coal, high projected coal prices). with this continuing weakness, it must start looking like a pretty good buy.

[duncan macgregor]

quote:Originally posted by Shrewd Crude

Does anyone have an opinion on protests to the mine?
I have already heard something along those lines?
Dont make me name the other NZ coal Mine that has had massive protests and isnt there another one on strike because of wages? and what about the snails?...
Wages will hopefully be high at Pike because PRC wants to retain the capable, and at the stage of first production, wage expense will not be a problem.
NZO rose today, PRC fell... good news for those holding NZO only...
on corresponding notes...
PRC hit all time lows today...
[8D]
.^sc
SHREWDY, I dont agree with you on wage expences not being a problem. Fully qualified miners are being poached by Australian companies offering 150k a year. Prc has a ratio of one in six being qualified, which is far to low for safety reasons. The wage bill will either be a lot higher than expected or safety will be compromized. I am only going from what i have read on other sites so i might be wrong. Macdunk

[tim23]

Good point - unemployment at record lows difficult for a whole range of industries to attract/retain staff - even in the provinces!

[Rabbi]

Well I personally think that many Solid Energy miners will jump ship and work for Pike as Spring Creek has had problems right from the start. Apparently the stone drive was hastily completed at the wrong angle to the fault line. They now admit they should have come in from the other side. While they got quick production they also got gas problems so the mine is not considered up to the required safety standard and is shut down for long periods.

[AMR]

quote:Originally posted by Unicorn


quote:Originally posted by upside_umop

do they not have backing from nzog unicorn?
people are stressing about this transport, but there is no point spending that money now as its not a necessity as yet. its better off having the money in the bank than spending it now. but that all depends on how long the chain takes. anybody know how long it will take to get the transport/roading part done?


As far as I am aware WCCC does not have any backing from NZO.

The money does not need to be spent now, but it needs to be available before contracts can be entered into. Banks will not lend money to an enterprise unless they feel it has a good probability of being profitable. Unless all components of the transport chain are catered for, banks will not lend on individual components. Trucks are not of much value if there are no ships to move their coal on, ships are no use if the ports are too shallow etc etc.

A lot of the components of the transport chain are long lead time items. Dredges need to be booked, and these are scarce and specialised machines. Slots in shipyards need to be confirmed, along with key components like engines (which are not off the shelf items). Wharf upgrades need to be designed, approved and built.

The Prospectus indicated that it would be the end of Q3 2008 before the first ship could be delivered, and that was based on 29 June WCCC finance approval. 15 months does not strike me as being at all excessive for an almost $100M project.


From the quarterly report :


The WCCC consortium includes international shipping line Jebsens, who are
providing the two self propelled vessels. Long lead items for the first
coastal ship were placed some months ago, a shipbuilding contract signed with
a Chinese shipyard and detailed design of the ship is now nearly complete.
WCCC and Pike River have extended the expected date for completion of ship
and port development financing.

WCCC is evaluating various interim shipping solutions for delivery of up to
50,000 tonnes of Pike River coking coal pending delivery of the first
coastal vessel (the "PRC Brunner"), now expected about September/October
2008.

[Balance]

85 cents with no real buying support emerging. This is frustrating after all the hype leading to this IPO. Is the market concerned about something? Is the market taking heed of Professor Cave's concerns? Buckle the seatbelt, long term shareholders, she's going to be a bumpy one. Let's hope the active fault not become active and swallow the mining equipment?

Geologist has advice for Pike River Coal investors
By ALAN WOOD - The Press | Tuesday, 29 May 2007

West Coast geologist is warning mum-and-dad investors not to get excited about the Pike River Coal (PRC) share float, given the mine's potential for production delays.


Murry Cave, a geologist with Western Exploration, said mining investments on the West Coast were generally risky, as experienced by state-owned coalminer Solid Energy.

However, PRC was an exciting new venture with a highly experienced management team, as well as good partners in terms of financial backing, Cave said yesterday.

"They've got a fairly professional team. I hope they get it all up and running, but I just think it's a bit of a big ask," he said.

"(One risk) is to do with over-ambitious mining targets ... nobody in New Zealand has yet managed to mine in underground the type of tonnages of coal Pike River is anticipating," he said.

Investors should pause and consider the overall situation carefully before participating in the upcoming PRC float. But people with knowledge of the risk could "go for it".

PRC has already had several delays to a planned initial public offering (IPO) of shares. Its executive team has registered a prospectus, and has a listing timetable that aims to have shares trading from July 20.

Cave said some of the geological risks included:

A 2km-plus drive through hard rock "which is already proving to be slower going than anticipated".

The presence of an active fault that needed to be crossed underground, presenting a zone of considerable and sustained ground stresses.

A pit bottom with deep highly gassy coals and the associated risk of "outburst". Gas pressure-forced explosive events at the coal face.

A degree of uncertainty about the difficulties in accessing the resource because of the geological structure, plus the risk of environmental damage from subsidence and "acid mine drainage".

These risks did not necessarily mean the mine would not be a success, he said.

From 2000-04 Cave was an adviser on the Pike River mine to land owner the Department of Conservation as part of resource consent and access issues.

PRC chairman John Dow said as a trained geologist he disagreed with some of Cave's assumptions, notably that there was an active fault through the mine. The fault was not active, and in very old rock, he said.

Dow said Pike River was a different proposition from some of Solid Energy's mines on the West Coast. It was shallower and without some of the other potential problems like "outburst" that Cave had presented.

"The concerns he has are generic concerns ... he's abstracted circumstances from other operations and used them as they'd be directly relevant to Pike, but the reality is they aren't directly relevant to Pike," Dow said. "The tunnel that we are drilling at the moment up to the coal seam is in hard rock, but we all know it is in hard rock ... we've budgeted and the timing is based on that knowledge."

[warthog]

You know - as well does the hog - that you can't believe the hype. If you could, there would be no need for it.

[Paddie]

And for all those who said that they would be buying more PRC if it drops under one dollar, what an opportunity you have for a few months.

Paddie:D:D

Where will it stop?

[geezy]

All the money is in NZO at the moment as people might accept the exposure from NZO on PRC.


PRC looking cheap !

[tim23]

And may be cheaper tomoorw going by close on ASX today suggests about 82c tomorrow in NZ.

[Romer]

Seagull. You still there?? May be time to change the name of the thread title???

[8)]

[Ttops]

All the mum and dad investors who can't take the heat are selling and canny traders are waiting for more to bale out as the temperature climbs in the bedroom. :D:)[:I][:o)]:(:([xx(]

[Bling_Bling]

Keep dumping your stocks, Bling has cash and ready to buy at the bottom. The lower the price they more of a bargain. :)[:p]:D

[Ttops]

quote:Originally posted by Bling_Bling

Keep dumping your stocks, Bling has cash and ready to buy at the bottom. The lower the price they more of a bargain. :)[:p]:D

Yep. They're averaging down at present but time and bad news will take its toll and we haven't even had any yet!

[upside_umop]

the sceptics were right, anybody willing to pick a bottom? i reckon 70 is not out of the question..grrr

[Hoop]

For this long term investor, it's nearly time for a top up. Watching for any buy signals to commence accumulating.

[shasta]

By NZPA
Tuesday 31st July 2007

Coal miner Pike River Coal said today it has completed 48% of the tunnel to reach its coal deposit, with the installation of a new conveyer system improving progress.

Pike River, which floated on the stock market this month, plans to produce first coal at its mine near Greymouth by the end of March 2008 but has made slow progress with its tunnelling.

In an update today, the company said the tunnel had advanced 578 metres between April 1 and July 30, during which period the new system was installed to move blasted rock from the tunnel face to the tunnel entrance.

The tunnel has now advanced 1110m of its 2300m total length.

"Installation of the conveyor delivered immediate results with daily and weekly records being set for tunnel advance," the company said.

"Rates of tunnel advance will continue to vary depending on the rock type encountered, as is usual for projects of this nature."

Shares in Pike River were down 3% at 87c, below their $1 listing price.

Closing price was actually 85c.

Disc: Nil held (indirectly thru NZO)

[Woody51]

Shasta, do they just employ kids at NZPA nowadays? This piece is very ordinary, and the story on NZO's production posted today on Stuff was plain amateurish.

[Snow Leopard]

eighty five cents?
eighty five cents!
I mean, like eighty five cents!!

At some point the tide should turn.

Disc: none, yet.

[Balance]

quote:Originally posted by Bling_Bling

Keep dumping your stocks, Bling has cash and ready to buy at the bottom. The lower the price they more of a bargain. :)[:p]:D


I hear that ACC and NZO are looking to recruit someone who can pick the bottom of PRC and pay him/her $1m. Sounds like you are the man!

[Steve]

Once it hits 80c, I will start thinking about topping up...

[warthog]

PRC could easily slip lower than $0.70 - an investment for deep pockets. The old hog suspects that many will be waiting for production to start, which is still a way off. Until then, current holders' money is not actually doing anything. Why would you put money into something that isn't producing anything yet, therefore paying for the business to be built? Answer: people who think they can get in earlier at a preferable price. Well, as some here who have been talking up PRC have found out, this approach isn't without risk!

The trick would be to pick the PRC bottom before all the people who can't pick it are told about it.

[Bling_Bling]

quote:Originally posted by Balance


quote:Originally posted by Bling_Bling

Keep dumping your stocks, Bling has cash and ready to buy at the bottom. The lower the price they more of a bargain. :)[:p]:D


I hear that ACC and NZO are looking to recruit someone who can pick the bottom of PRC and pay him/her $1m. Sounds like you are the man!



LOL.. I was da man on WHS. Didnt pick the bottom, but did get some around $4. WHS price did continue to drop to just over $3, but then who gives a **** where the price is when you know the value of the company. T/O announcement and BANG it hit over $7. Bling is happy!

What I am trying to say is short term price movement is an opportunity for those that are value investors who hold stock for med - long term.

[Nitaa]

quote:Originally posted by warthog

PRC could easily slip lower than $0.70 - an investment for deep pockets. The old hog suspects that many will be waiting for production to start, which is still a way off. Until then, current holders' money is not actually doing anything. Why would you put money into something that isn't producing anything yet, therefore paying for the business to be built? Answer: people who think they can get in earlier at a preferable price. Well, as some here who have been talking up PRC have found out, this approach isn't without risk!

The trick would be to pick the PRC bottom before all the people who can't pick it are told about it.
Perhaps the same reason as investors buy into NZO prior to Tui coming on stream. Capex has to invested before any returns.

I have never thought of PRC being a short or medium term investment but rather at least a 5 year one. IMO the only upside Pike has prior to production is coking coal prices expecting to increase, takeover or reserve upgrade. For mine i have stayed away from Pike although i have exposure through owning NZO. There will be other milestones along the way and some good pr work can often do the trick.

warthog. i think there were 3 types of investors into Pike. The ones who put their shares in the bottom draw, the ones who expected an upward sp movement in a bullish market and of course the ones who wanted to make a quick buck out of the IPO. Even the lattr had merits given what is happening to mining stocks in aus.

nz mining stocks are not the sexy thing like they are in aus. you also you have more threats from the greenies here.

long term this looks a good stock imo

[duncan macgregor]

What you have to take into account with any company is the cost of start up production, then the cost of delivering the product to the buyers destination. Pike has huge start up costs much more so than its competitors. It then has huge delivery costs far above normal.
There is so much cost and risk involved to even start production that it was only an investment for people with no practical understanding.
1,They build new roads and tunnels to get it out.
2, they load it on to trucks unload it at one port to load on to barges to deliver and unload it at another port to reload it on to a ship to ship out. Double normal transport costs.
If you are that dumb you think its a buy at 85c then good luck, ignorance is definately bliss. The only time this might be a buy is when it is up and running on the dummy investors money, then we can work out margins. I would think one more problem and the sp will plummet, otherwise it will be in the mid seventies for some considerable time. Macdunk

[dsurf]

No dum investors = no private capital = no mine.

I suppose the government could fund everything?

Abolish the sharemarket?

[dsurf]

On a serious note - tentative signs the worm may be turning. Buy / Sell ratio on the queue down to 1 : 3 approximately. Has been averaging about 1:8 since day one

Panic over? Someone shorting has pulled large sell orders?

Plenty of time for this story to unravel.

I took up my allocation and am firmly in the "lets repeat the CEN float category"

[clips]

quote - I took up my allocation and am firmly in the "lets repeat the CEN float category"

me too... well now i am, i genuinely believed it
was going to drift upward from the float -always planned to hold at least till production, patience patience

[Bling_Bling]

quote:Originally posted by Nita
nz mining stocks are not the sexy thing like they are in aus.

Thats why we have aussie firms owning most of our quality assets. If NZers are stupid enough not to invest in a NZ firm then it will go to and overseas owner at a bargain price. Bling thinks PRC will be a T/O if the price continues to weaken getting closer to production. Plenty of mining company in Aussie with very deep wallets. I dont have a crystal ball so dont ask me at what price or when!!

[upside_umop]

yeah the ozzy buy sell ratio is looking a lot better than here. i think the price over here will eventually be dictated by ozzy demand..