PRC Pike River Coal

[upside_umop]

still good time to buy. just not as good as two weeks ago...or even one week ago :P

$1.15-1.20 before xmas imo

[dsurf]

MacDunk serves a vital purpose - these threads can get over the top believing the company spin. And he does call how he sees it & I for one appreciate his ideas.

Also - he has got one wrong - NZOOD worth 5c

Like TUI - yeah right

[Mick100]

MacDunk serves a vital purpose -

yes - he is a useful poster
especially if you buy shares that he's bagging, eg, PRC, NZO, PGW
and sell shares that he's bullish on, eg, base metals, particuarly nickle
- you'll find you would do very well by doing the exact opposite of macdunk. I'm sure I'm not the only person who has detected this "macdunk factor" :)
.

[skinny]

Indeed, as is Kupe. I can't believe some of the longer holders are bailing out of NZO at this point; it is precisely the wrong time to sell. NZ fund managers will start piling in big time as soon as they have a bit more certainty over the production and income profiles.


Damn that was good timing. I'll have more time to work on my handicap out of this ;-)

[STRAT]

yes - he is a useful poster
especially if you buy shares that he's bagging, eg, PRC, NZO, PGW
and sell shares that he's bullish on, eg, base metals, particuarly nickle
- you'll find you would do very well by doing the exact opposite of macdunk. I'm sure I'm not the only person who has detected this "macdunk factor" :)
.Beg to differ here Mick and others.:eek: I have done very nicely using and taking a lot of MacDunks advice. I find the fact that he is pretty up front and in real time very refreshing and not all that common. Whats more if you forget one of his hot tips it wont take long for him to give you a gentle reminder.:D:D:D
Ignore all these babies and hard noses Duncan, it wouldnt be the same here without ya;)

PS Are PRC using poles with those Barges of theirs?

[duncan macgregor]

yes - he is a useful poster
especially if you buy shares that he's bagging, eg, PRC, NZO, PGW
and sell shares that he's bullish on, eg, base metals, particuarly nickle
- you'll find you would do very well by doing the exact opposite of macdunk. I'm sure I'm not the only person who has detected this "macdunk factor" :)
. MICK, lets have a look at your winners over two years.
1, PGW in nov 2005 was $2-40 its now $1-97 what a win you had on that.
2,NZO in nov 2005 was $1-05 its now $1-09 another one of your gems
3 Prc listed at a dollar now about 4-5c up you would hardly call that much of a win would you?.
I made more taking my money to Australia with the exchange rate, even if i had left it in the bank. Dont worry about me STRAT, quite capable of looking after myself, it only amuses me to see the little people throwing rocks hiding behind stone walls so that we dont know who they are. Macdunk

[STRAT]

Dont worry about me STRAT, quite capable of looking after myself, . MacdunkNot worried and Im sure you dont need a minder. Just puttin in my 2c worth and voicing my opinion.;)

Not pointing the finger either. Twas a toungue in cheek post by a hard nose baby :D

[shane_m]

I picked up the time line (TL) theory from dunk and never looked back. :)

I am glad I didn’t take up my PRC rights; I will get in few weeks before the production starts. I have found Gordon Ward and Arun Jagatramka always reply to my emails not like NZO.

[Crypto Crude]

Major Dunk,
strat was kind enough to stand up for you and you repay him by saying that ! ... how about saying "strat, im putting you on my buddies list now, thanks mate"..or.."I will PM you shortly with A Mackdadunk hot stock tip".....:D:D..... but instead you a k 47 him down...
....
MD you at least owe Strat a PM with a hot stock tip....
PM him a 'Mack Dunk special'....
:D
.^sc

[duncan macgregor]

SHREWDY, You are quite right Macdunk is one ungratefull bastard. Do you think if i teach him how to strut like winners do at the next Auck get together and buy him a double that would make up for it ?. The problem is old macdunk finds it amusing to kick the chook house to see them squack dousnt take it seriously. Your old mate Macdunk

[Nitaa]

SHREWDY, You are quite right Macdunk is one ungratefull bastard. Do you think if i teach him how to strut like winners do at the next Auck get together and buy him a double that would make up for it ?. The problem is old macdunk finds it amusing to kick the chook house to see them squack dousnt take it seriously. Your old mate Macdunk
i dont think macdunk is an ungrateful so and so. i just think he is a few sandwiches short of a picnic....prc is on a roll....a...coast...er. macdunk has missed out on an excellent trading opportunity but ya cant win em all aye bro.

love givin you a hard time.. ya ol crusty tart, nita

[duncan macgregor]

NITA, At least you didnt liken me to a sausage roll that would get gobbled up at the AGM. You are not a bad SHEALLA NITA a bit misguided but not bad for an old biddie. Macdunk

[STRAT]

Major Dunk,
strat was kind enough to stand up for you and you repay him by saying that ! ... how about saying "strat, im putting you on my buddies list now, thanks mate"..or.."I will PM you shortly with A Mackdadunk hot stock tip".....:D:D..... but instead you a k 47 him down...
....
MD you at least owe Strat a PM with a hot stock tip....
PM him a 'Mack Dunk special'....
:D
.^scLOL. and here I was thinkin voicing my thoughts might leave ME out in the cold with everyone else. Thanks for the cuddle Shrewdy:D

[STRAT]

SHREWDY, You are quite right Macdunk is one ungratefull bastard. Do you think if i teach him how to strut like winners do at the next Auck get together and buy him a double that would make up for it ?. The problem is old macdunk finds it amusing to kick the chook house to see them squack dousnt take it seriously. Your old mate MacdunkIm not one for Struttin but a rendition of Billy Boy while Shrewdy and your good self are doin the Strut could be entertaining :eek:

[duncan macgregor]

Long term on the NZX TPW. Macdunk

STRAT, I posted that on the 2nd of oct for the pikers to have a good safe win. Its funny how they keep it quiet about it. $8-50- to $9-30 in two and a half weeks. You and I are having a lot more fun over the ditch where our money has gained 6% just by being there this year. Hope to see you at the next get together on the 27th. Pikers are welcome as long as you dont start crying in your beer. It would embarrass me. Macdunk

[upside_umop]

can you reiterate to me how we would have made 6% more on investing in PRC on the asx?

your right, there has been good currency gains, and there will be more to come with more rate hikes across the ditch. see those tax cuts howards offering? think he will pull through?

[tim23]

Probably by taking money over @ 92c even if the stock price has done nothing you are still nicely in front - well of course Duncan would taken it over at 93c bought a dud that came good and won on both counts.

[duncan macgregor]

Probably by taking money over @ 92c even if the stock price has done nothing you are still nicely in front - well of course Duncan would taken it over at 93c bought a dud that came good and won on both counts. You are on to it TIM. The people that wanted to invest in PRC should have done it on the ASX when the NZ dollar was so high. That was if they were fundamentaly aware of all the risks involved. Thats the reason that i only invest in Australia. Macdunk

[tim23]

But if its a dual listed stock its usually cheaper to buy in NZ (brokerage wise) unless there is an arbitrage play?

[Dr_Who]

But if its a dual listed stock its usually cheaper to buy in NZ (brokerage wise) unless there is an arbitrage play?

I agree Tim. My broker tells me that most of the brokers arbitrage stocks on their books making on the currency. They buy and sell and then shunt the stock back and forth. The gaps between stocks duel listed are usually very close due to arbtraging. So I dont know the Mcdunk is on about.

[duncan macgregor]

But if its a dual listed stock its usually cheaper to buy in NZ (brokerage wise) unless there is an arbitrage play? Tim i took all my investment money to Aussie in JAN. If i brought it all back its worth 6% more simply because the nz dollar is now worth less. PRC is back to square one in both countries or near enough.
Now you have me thinking i might be wrong will leave it to someone more clued up in dual listings to enlighten both of us. Macdunk

[temuk]

how many are intending going to the AGM next week ??

I will be attending and while up that way I'll go stay at
me ol mate mad dog in westport for the night.

[manxman]

how many are intending going to the AGM next week ??



We will be coming down from Whangarei, but will be calling in to Whisky Galore:D:D in Christchurch first. We pick up a campervan for relocation to Auckland, and fill up with a year's supply of the good stuff as we head back north.

Mx

[digger]

how many are intending going to the AGM next week ??

I will be attending and while up that way I'll go stay at
me ol mate mad dog in westport for the night.

I would very much like to go and am planning to but it is weather dependent.If it is good flying weather my son will fly us to Greymouth and then onto Wellington. If weather is not good for small plane we will simply drive to Wellington. Be good to see the Pike layout and tunnel but the weather has the call.

[upside_umop]

You are on to it TIM. The people that wanted to invest in PRC should have done it on the ASX when the NZ dollar was so high. That was if they were fundamentaly aware of all the risks involved. Thats the reason that i only invest in Australia. Macdunk

BINGO!

MacDunk its not often you can get proved utterly wrong is it.
I was waiting to see if you would say that....

The reason i say this is, it wouldnt matter if you invested on PRC on the ASX or the NZX, you would be in the same position. Why? Because its dual listed. This is the same with any dual listed company, FPH, NZO, PPP etc etc...

Let me do a little working example, with PRC of course.

Say you had 4000 NZD to play with at IPO.
Two options:
1) Invest on the NZX would get you 4000 shares.
2) Invest on the ASX would get you 4000 shares (but listed on ASX at 90.24 cents as stated to the market on announcement)

You hold, till now.

Lets see what happened with the two options.

1) Sell PRC on NZX, 4000*1.01=$4040NZD
2) Sell PRC on ASX, 4000*0.85=$3400AUD, and convert back to NZD at current spot exchange rate of 0.845 = 3400/0.845=$4023

So, you get back $4040 from NZX, and $4023 from ASX.

Why, you might ask? Why not the 6% gain like Maccy Dee has been shouting about and saying we're all stupid for investing on PRC on the NZX.

Its dual listed, which means abitragers (as stated by tim123) will narrow out and profit between the stock listed on both exchanges, by comparing the current price with the bilateral exchange rate to see if they are inline of value with each other. You will find this with EVERY dual listed stock.

The case does however change if you have a normal stock listed on a foreign countries exchange (like your MRX macdunk), it can even be two foreign countries exchanges, as long as its not listed on your own (local) as well. If you do this (not dual listexd), then you will take a foreign exchange gain.

In this case, you would have been better to put your money in the bank in Austrailia, and gain the 6% in foreign exchange gain and not invest in PRC on the ASX.

Remember the rate above is using the spot rate, so your asb securities will put their spread on that also, and lose a little more...

So in this case you will lose a little money, tommorow you could make a little money. It really depends if you get that 1 cent and try to abitrage (wouldnt be worth it though would it..)

And for the note, brokerage is very similar in relative terms in Australia and NZ. $30 in each of their local currencies on ASB securities. Why use a broker?

But in the end, MacDunk, your doing well investing on normal listed stocks on the asx with the gain, and there will be more to come in the long term i suspect.

[duncan macgregor]

BINGO!

MacDunk its not often you can get proved utterly wrong is it.
I was waiting to see if you would say that....

The reason i say this is, it wouldnt matter if you invested on PRC on the ASX or the NZX, you would be in the same position. Why? Because its dual listed. This is the same with any dual listed company, FPH, NZO, PPP etc etc...

Let me do a little working example, with PRC of course.

Say you had 4000 NZD to play with at IPO.
Two options:
1) Invest on the NZX would get you 4000 shares.
2) Invest on the ASX would get you 4000 shares (but listed on ASX at 90.24 cents as stated to the market on announcement)

You hold, till now.

Lets see what happened with the two options.

1) Sell PRC on NZX, 4000*1.01=$4040NZD
2) Sell PRC on ASX, 4000*0.85=$3400AUD, and convert back to NZD at current spot exchange rate of 0.845 = 3400/0.845=$4023

So, you get back $4040 from NZX, and $4023 from ASX.

Why, you might ask? Why not the 6% gain like Maccy Dee has been shouting about and saying we're all stupid for investing on PRC on the NZX.

Its dual listed, which means abitragers (as stated by tim123) will narrow out and profit between the stock listed on both exchanges, by comparing the current price with the bilateral exchange rate to see if they are inline of value with each other. You will find this with EVERY dual listed stock.

The case does however change if you have a normal stock listed on a foreign countries exchange (like your MRX macdunk), it can even be two foreign countries exchanges, as long as its not listed on your own (local) as well. If you do this (not dual listexd), then you will take a foreign exchange gain.
. You are quite right MACDUNK GOT IT WRONG. Thats what happens if you take something for granted without really nutting it out. In my own defence other than the one for insanity i did say after i thought about it that i might be wrong. macdunk

[upside_umop]

yeah your right, you did, ill give you that. my response was a bit over the top as its probably the only time i will be able to do that haha

[bermuda]

I was in the UK recently and had the opportunity to spend a few days with an Oil Trader operating out of Mayfair. This guy is a sharp operator managing a 26 billion pound fund. Last month he took Matt Simmons out to dinner and went to Greenspan's breakfast (30 invited ) a fortnight ago. Nuff said.

Anyway he is long on oil, freight rates and coking coal. He made 1 billion in 6 months on freight for a 32 year chinese dude.The coking coal market in his words is red hot with latest spot prices at $US150 per tonne.The next round of negotiations will see contracts rise by at least 30%.

We dialled up Pike River on his screen and within a few seconds he had all the data.He saw the transport chain as a bonus to companies seeking a secure supply source in a market where an increasing number of Asian/Indian companies are now taking equity positions in Australasian companies. shipping is a real mess.Newcastle's

I wouldnt be surprised if he generates some interest in Pike. If the operation can proceed as per the IPO then watch out for a big lift in PRC.

[Hoop]

PRC 19/10/2007 GENERAL REL: 1045 HRS Pike River Coal Limited GENERAL: PRC: CREDIT SUISSE SSH Notice Amendment PIKE RIVER COAL LTD / DISCLOSURE OF INTEREST Dear Sir/Madam, This notice concerns Disclosure of Interest communications from Credit Suisse Zurich and Credit Suisse UK both dated 3 October in relation to the above security. We would like to clarify that Credit Suisse Zurich acts as the custodian of the security on behalf of Credit Suisse UK. Credit Suisse UK is not the beneficial owner of the Pike River Coal Limited securities which were the subject of the disclosures. The beneficial owner of the stock is a Credit Suisse UK client. We understand that only beneficial owners are required to make a disclosure under New Zealand regulations, which we are informed, has been done. Accordingly, disclosures from Credit Suisse Zurich and Credit Suisse UK should both be withdrawn. We apologise for any confusion these erroneous notifications may have caused. Should you have any additional questions regarding this communication, please contact Juerg Schenkel in the Legal & Compliance Department YCPP P O Box 3, 8070 Zurich (Tel: +41 44 333 22 37, Fax: +41 44 333 03 34). Yours faithfully, CREDIT SUISSE

I thought the disclosure rules mean't that all persons get the opportunity to know who bought shares over 5% threshold.

So NZX, why are we still in the dark as who the client is???

[Toddy]

PRC 19/10/2007 GENERAL REL: 1045 HRS Pike River Coal Limited GENERAL: PRC: CREDIT SUISSE SSH Notice Amendment PIKE RIVER COAL LTD / DISCLOSURE OF INTEREST Dear Sir/Madam, This notice concerns Disclosure of Interest communications from Credit Suisse Zurich and Credit Suisse UK both dated 3 October in relation to the above security. We would like to clarify that Credit Suisse Zurich acts as the custodian of the security on behalf of Credit Suisse UK. Credit Suisse UK is not the beneficial owner of the Pike River Coal Limited securities which were the subject of the disclosures. The beneficial owner of the stock is a Credit Suisse UK client. We understand that only beneficial owners are required to make a disclosure under New Zealand regulations, which we are informed, has been done. Accordingly, disclosures from Credit Suisse Zurich and Credit Suisse UK should both be withdrawn. We apologise for any confusion these erroneous notifications may have caused. Should you have any additional questions regarding this communication, please contact Juerg Schenkel in the Legal & Compliance Department YCPP P O Box 3, 8070 Zurich (Tel: +41 44 333 22 37, Fax: +41 44 333 03 34). Yours faithfully, CREDIT SUISSE

I thought the disclosure rules mean't that all persons get the opportunity to know who bought shares over 5% threshold.

So NZX, why are we still in the dark as who the client is???

'We apologise for any confusion....'

Now I'm more confused than ever.

[bermuda]

Toddy,
Yes deserves an explanation. Possibly the UK client is a leveraged fund made up of separate individual clients

[Xerof]

Saurashtra World Holdings own 17 million PRC shares(and it is already declared - in the prospectus) As no-one has declared owning another parcel of 17m, then it can be assumed this is the parcel in question. No SSH required.

[BWR]

The party concerned has already filed a substantial shareholder notice. Page 26 of the PRC annual report under the heading Substantial Shareholders shows Saurashtra World Holdings Private Limited with 17,000,000 shares.

[AMR]

Possibly the fund represents several clients, all of whom are less than 5%.

[Scuffer]

You are quite right MACDUNK GOT IT WRONG. Thats what happens if you take something for granted without really nutting it out. In my own defence other than the one for insanity i did say after i thought about it that i might be wrong. macdunk

Duncan I am still cautious on PRC I still think the transport is a problem and can still see the double handling being a mill stone as shipping companies try to cut back on fuel costs. I was told today that they thought about shifting it through Lyttelton but the port couldn't guarantee the volume of nearly two million tons a year so how can PRC expect to move that amount on two ships which are only capable of moving 12500 tons each, the figures don't add up, sorry but someone is going to be disappointed.

[duncan macgregor]

Double handling, double cost, double what might go wrong. Thats what i always thought, hope that i am wrong. Time will tell, when the first coal gets to india with all the costs involved in the process, thats when to invest or not to invest, right now its a gamble. macdunk

[Scuffer]

Glad to see ya still putting these guys right with me, I dodge bullets on this thread, I was also told that the coal is further than expected so they need to expect delays on the tunnelling.I asked about the coal loading and unloading facilities and nobody has got back to me so maybe there isn't any yet but I've got a mate with his own shovel.

[bermuda]

Scuffer,
Do you really think that a $200 million dollar company hasnt thought this through?

Do you think that Peter Whittall ( who previously worked for BHP for 25 years ) doesnt know how to transport coal?

Have you read the prospectus?

Do you own any PRC shares?

A dozen of good Aussie red that Pike will perform and be worth $1.20 by June 30th?

I remember accepting two bets where posters insisted that Maari was going to produce before Tui. How they ever thought that is beyond me so I just had to accept.

What say you?

[temuk]

Duncan I am still cautious on PRC I still think the transport is a problem and can still see the double handling being a mill stone as shipping companies try to cut back on fuel costs. I was told today that they thought about shifting it through Lyttelton but the port couldn't guarantee the volume of nearly two million tons a year so how can PRC expect to move that amount on two ships which are only capable of moving 12500 tons each, the figures don't add up, sorry but someone is going to be disappointed.

try reading the prospectus page 53.

"Port westland encounters sand bar and river flow conditions to varying degreess which limit the optium vessel size. Accordingly the carrying capacity of the self propelled vessels is limited to 12,000 tonnes of coal. After allowing for weather related delays,the 2 self propelled vessels have a theoreical annual carrying capacity of between 1.5 to 1.8 million tonnes."

they say they are going to mine 1 million tonnes a year divide by 12,000 tonnes ( per boat load )= 83.33 trips divide by 2 ( the number of boats that will be operating ) = 41.66 trips per boat per year. this means a round trip of 8.76 days.

Where do you see a problem?

[tim23]

I'm with the last 2 posts; the company deserves some credit - Duncan PRC a gamble? - no thats the casino, but I guess you always win there as well...

[Scuffer]

No one has yet told me anything about a coal loading or unloading facility do any of you know what a jetslinger is because you need a conveyor system to put before it before you can load coal into a ship, do they have these things at the ports for loading.Just keeping it all running is a feat in itself. Now its only a million tons why ask Lyttelton to guarantee to load 2 million tons across the wharf before they would sign an agreement.Come on guys you must admit the variables are slapping you in the face, whether Pike turns out to be a good deal or not its not a set in concrete success yet there is a hell of a lot of obstacles to get to the dividends you all await.Duncan is still on the money its still a wait and see.

[duncan macgregor]

The risk an unknown factor in this instance. the people that jump up and down slinging abuse at posters that try to explain the risk are probabely the ones with no practical knowledge of what the risks are. They told us so therefore it must be right brigade.
Double handle anything is double the cost to handle, with double the risk of something going wrong. They not only double handle the coal but double ship the coal out of two different ports. The risk of something going wrong is your risk, its your money the company has to take this risk with.
look it up they are all on high salaries, if it goes right or wrong or somewhere in between makes no difference to them. its you lot that pays the piper. I say the risk is to high for a practical investment it is a straight out gamble at this point. Macdunk

[Oiler]

No one has yet told me anything about a coal loading or unloading facility do any of you know what a jetslinger is because you need a conveyor system to put before it before you can load coal into a ship, do they have these things at the ports for loading.Just keeping it all running is a feat in itself. Now its only a million tons why ask Lyttelton to guarantee to load 2 million tons across the wharf before they would sign an agreement.Come on guys you must admit the variables are slapping you in the face, whether Pike turns out to be a good deal or not its not a set in concrete success yet there is a hell of a lot of obstacles to get to the dividends you all await.Duncan is still on the money its still a wait and see.

Temuk, you are right on the money with the coal transport plan.

Scuffer...tenders were called last year for the development of the coal handling facility at New Plymouth and a successful tenderer chosen. It was an EPC contract (Engineer,Procure,Construct) so the NP end has begun.

You ask what a jetslinger is?...... it is a vertical telescopic chute which hangs off the end of a conveyor belt into which the coal drops down through and onto a high speed belt which literally slings the coal out into the hold of the ship. The slinger is remotely controlled and rotates almost 360 degrees to get the coal into every corner of the hold. The holds of the Panamax (65000tonnes) are big so the coal has to be evenly distributed into each hold to get maximum coal loaded.

I very much doubt that Lyttelton could handle the Pike coal as I believe they are fully committed to Solid Energy and pluss the rail link from the coast is running at capacity. SE has and does barge coal over to Lyttelton but Port Taranaki is closer to Greymouth than Lyttelton so the transport time and costs are better.

I personally think the bigger issue is the mine end and not soo much the transport issue.

[temuk]

nice reply oiler

I was of the opinion that the otira tunnel was at capacity because of the lack of oxygen to run the engines.

[Oiler]

nice reply oiler

I was of the opinion that the otira tunnel was at capacity because of the lack of oxygen to run the engines.

Yes the Otira tunnel is the bottleneck in the system as well as the speed restrictions on some of the bridges.

See you on the 2nd Nov. at the Christchurch National Convention !! :)

[manxman]

I was of the opinion that the otira tunnel was at capacity because of the lack of oxygen to run the engines.

There is also a problem in that Toll and Ontrack haven't yet reached agreement on track access charges. The line needs a bucketful of money spent on it, and the formula for cost recovery is still a bone of contention. I doubt whether Pike could have negotiated a long term price for coal transport even if there was capacity available, simply because Toll doesn't know what the track access charges will be.

The two million tonne figure for Lyttelton was probably so that PRC are not precluded from opening up the Paparoa seam in a couple of years' time, and expanding production. The WCCC solution would be readily expanded, and there is already talk of non-coal products being moved as well.

Look for Taranaki to make a play for some of Solid Energy's business once the Pike coal route is established. Solid Energy would have to consider it, if only as a bargaining chip if rail costs look like going up. Interesting times.

I haven't got a handle on the length of the WCCC ships, but its only about 90 metres across the Grey River from the wharf to the training wall on the Cobden side. Scuffer's next scenario will be the PRC Brunner wedged sideways across the river while the tide washes down the main street. Just guessing of course, but Jebsens have probably worked out that the vessels will have to be turned round, (without a tug) but they just forgot to mention that they knew how to do it.

Mx

[Scuffer]

Your description of a jetslinger is good and I'm happy but who is doing the maintenance on the belt system and I still want to know how they plan on getting it out of the small ships.
I would also like to add that I for one would love to invest in PRC but need to have all my doubts gone first I think that Duncan would probably feel the same way, we are not posting just to wind you guys up as I feel sometimes you think we are.

[COLIN]

I'm sure that the managements of PRC, NZO, Grey District Council, Greymouth Harbour Board, Port Taranaki, relative shipping companies and all the consulting engineers and other professionals involved with this project are sitting glued to their screens for 24 hours a day just waiting for the next Sharetrader expert to come up with some key constraint that they haven't thought about!!!!!

[Oiler]

I'm sure that the managements of PRC, NZO, Grey District Council, Greymouth Harbour Board, Port Taranaki, relative shipping companies and all the consulting engineers and other professionals involved with this project are sitting glued to their screens for 24 hours a day just waiting for the next Sharetrader expert to come up with some key constraint that they haven't thought about!!!!!

:D:D:D well put Colin. As I said in an earlier post that the "construction" portion of the transport system is well down the track.

Scuffer ...they use grab buckets to get the coal out of the shallow draught barges. What PRC is doing is not rocket science and it has all been before, so I wouldnt worry about maintenance on the conveyor belts or the barge getting stuck sideways in the Grey River. :eek:

I see the risk still being in the tunnel and is the quantity of coal going to be as predicted? Time will tell I guess.

[manxman]

but who is doing the maintenance on the belt system

Scuffer - you can see all this gear in operation at Marsden Point, and probably at any other port that handles bulk woodchip. Marsden has an extensive system of conveyors, some moveable, some with retractable sections, and maintenance does not seem to be a huge issue. Loading the small ships can be done with a small slinger at Greymouth. To unload in Taranaki, perhaps a bucket elevator or Z-conveyor feeding onto a belt system, feeding eventually to another slinger to pop it on the stockpile. This is not rocket science. You can wait until the whole coal route is commissioned, but you may have to pay $1.60 a share by then. Your money, your call.

[Dr_Who]

Scuffer - You can wait until the whole coal route is commissioned, but you may have to pay $1.60 a share by then. Your money, your call.

By that time when the SP at $1.60 I will be on the selling side giving the stock to Scuffer...LOL :P

[duncan macgregor]

DR WHO, Scuffer is like myself in this regard we both buy into shares that trend up, with the least risk to our capital for maximum gain. We dont give a damn if they shovel coal or produce weapons of mass destruction, all that counts is they turn our investment dollar into two dollars. The posters who get all flushed up screaming abuse at anybody that says anything bad about some beloved company, are sitting ducks waiting on the season to open. If PRC is your first choice of investment then good luck to you, hope it comes good. Dont think that i am interested in buying in please, the cost of getting the stuff out is the most expensive of any coal mine that i have ever known. The rising fuel price will probabely increase faster than the price of the product. The product is a high risk product with this greenie govt who are hell bent on global warming issues. Any govt that wanted to introduce a fart tax on farmers will be hell bent on screwing a coal mine. I really dont give a damn about MCR,SMY,AGM,MRX,PEM or AUZ, They are all on notice to perform or get dumpted. Say anything you like about any of those companies tell me the downsides i would appreciate it. You should thank SCUFFER for his input make you see both sides of the story. Macdunk

[Scuffer]

Thanks Duncan for the support, like I said they take pot shots at you on this thread for coming up with topics of discussion personally I think I will retire to my hide for duck shooting season the rest can polish their weapons.

[bermuda]

Thanks Duncan for the support, like I said they take pot shots at you on this thread for coming up with topics of discussion personally I think I will retire to my hide for duck shooting season the rest can polish their weapons.

Scuffer,

So you are going to DUCK my bet.

I dont bloody believe it

[Unicorn]

Some important questions that I cannot find answers to ...

1. Did the tasks scheduled to begin at start of Q4 2007 begin on time?
Ventilation Shaft Construction
Coal Preparation Plant Construction
Slurry Pipeline Construction
Greymouth Port Facilities Upgrade
Port Taranaki Facilities Upgrade

2. Is the Ship and Port Development Financing now in place?
Was due pre-IPO but had been extended to 30 September.

3. Is the shipyard contract now unconditional?
Was waiting for Kristian Jebsens Rederl AS board approval and a refund guarantee from the shipyard.

Do any PRC holders have any information in these areas that is more up to date than what was shown in the Annual Report?

[duncan macgregor]

Unicorn, That is the type of Questions that should be known to the shareholders who after all are the owners. I find more open disclosure with Aussie miners, who really go out their way to inform investors. Is it a NZ thing, or is it or is all this behind closed doors stuff done for a reason other than just to piss off investors. Macdunk

[upside_umop]

DR WHO, Scuffer is like myself in this regard we both buy into shares that trend up, with the least risk to our capital for maximum gain. We dont give a damn if they shovel coal or produce weapons of mass destruction, all that counts is they turn our investment dollar into two dollars. The posters who get all flushed up screaming abuse at anybody that says anything bad about some beloved company, are sitting ducks waiting on the season to open. If PRC is your first choice of investment then good luck to you, hope it comes good. Dont think that i am interested in buying in please, the cost of getting the stuff out is the most expensive of any coal mine that i have ever known. The rising fuel price will probabely increase faster than the price of the product. The product is a high risk product with this greenie govt who are hell bent on global warming issues. Any govt that wanted to introduce a fart tax on farmers will be hell bent on screwing a coal mine. I really dont give a damn about MCR,SMY,AGM,MRX,PEM or AUZ, They are all on notice to perform or get dumpted. Say anything you like about any of those companies tell me the downsides i would appreciate it. You should thank SCUFFER for his input make you see both sides of the story. Macdunk

macdunk, after numerous times of asking, i gave up asking about the most expensive coal mine blah blah...

but since you ask again, ill ask again. what are the comparitive figures that you know to extract coal as a % of revenue. cheers.

tend to disagree by your rising of fuel expense will outpace the rise of their raw product revenue they're mining out of the ground. as some have corrected me on another thread, oil is only a factor in production fuels, and the fuel is only a factor of transport costs. then considering coal is a substitute for generating electricity to oil it will rise when ever oil rises...as history has shown, just look at coal price now.


also, some questions on here are getting a little bit, how do i say it...demanding for information.

give prc some credit, as some people have already said, its 180 million dollar company (again) and professionals are running the show. you dont see fisher and paykel appliances spitting out information here and there about how their r&d is being spend and what products failed in design stage. prc will most likely follow minimum disclosure along the lines of nzo, and if anything comes up that is material enough to be known by the market, by regulation they will disclose it. that simple. if your after a risk free return, govt bonds will do the trick.

[Scuffer]

Scuffer,

So you are going to DUCK my bet.

I dont bloody believe it

Yup Iam not gonna be drawn into a game, I bet on the TAB for fun on something I enjoy watching the premiership,but thanks for the offer.

[bermuda]

Oh well at least we got the answers for you on the transportation.Should be able to do the Greymouth -Taranaki round trip within 8.5 days.

If Peter Whittall cant get this mine working nobody can........and he said he could.

The Aussie market is down 2.1% with the oilers down about 4%. Let's hope the Dow improves tonight.

[the machine]

Goldman Raises Coking Coal Price Forecast on Demand, Congestion

By Tan Hwee Ann

Oct. 22 (Bloomberg) -- Goldman Sachs JBWere Pty., the Australian affiliate of the world's largest securities firm, raised its contract coking coal price forecasts 17 percent, pacing higher cash prices for the steelmaking ingredient from India.

The annual contract price of coking coal may rise to a record $140 a metric ton in the 12 months from April 1, from $98 this year, the brokerage said. It had forecast $120 a ton.

Port and rail congestion in Australia, the world's largest exporter of coal, have restricted supply as Asian demand surges. BHP Billiton Ltd., the world's largest mining company, and rivals start talks with Japanese and Chinese steelmakers to set annual contract prices for coking coal and iron ore this month.

``We believe Australian coal suppliers are extremely well positioned to secure significantly higher contract prices,'' Goldman analysts Malcolm Southwood and Paul Gray said in an Oct. 19 report. There was ``no quick fix in sight for the severe congestion afflicting Australian coal supply chains and no let up in demand,'' they said.

Australian exporters recently sold coal to Indian buyers on the spot market at $165 a ton, Goldman said in the report.

BHP's Chief Executive Officer Marius Kloppers said last week that he hadn't seen iron ore and coking coal in shorter supply. The Melbourne-based company increased sales to India by 56 percent in the six months ended June from a year ago, selling coking coal and metals.

Power Stations

Energy, or thermal coal, used in power stations, may rise 35 percent to $75 a ton in 2008, from $56 a ton this year, Goldman said. The broker had forecast a price of $68 a ton.

Heavy rainfall in Indonesia, the world's largest exporter of energy coal, and port and rail congestion in Australia both curbed supply, the broker said. Asian power stations may engage in ``panic buying'', and send the cash market for thermal coal to $80 a ton, Goldman said.

The effect of forecast higher coal prices on the earnings of BHP and rival Rio Tinto Group will be more than offset by the rising Australian dollar, Goldman said. A stronger Australian dollar, boosting costs for BHP and Rio's Australian mines, will more than erode the price gains, it said.

The broker cut its 2008 earnings forecasts for BHP and London-based Rio by 2 percent and 3.9 percent respectively.

The Australian dollar has gained 12 percent this year, and touched its highest since 1984 last week.

Goldman Sachs also forecast that the contract price for semi- soft coking coal will rise 33 percent to $85 a ton, and the price for pulverized coal will rise 41 percent to $95 a ton.

To contact the reporter on this story: Tan Hwee Ann in Melbourne at hatan@bloomberg.net

Last Updated: October 22, 2007 00:20 EDT

[Dr_Who]

The big property boom in China and India alone will require alot of contruction materials. Steel and such require alot of energy input to make. So yeah, go the coal price!!! :):)

[whirly]

DR WHO, Scuffer is like myself in this regard we both buy into shares that trend up, with the least risk to our capital for maximum gain. We dont give a damn if they shovel coal or produce weapons of mass destruction, all that counts is they turn our investment dollar into two dollars.

Arrrgh that hurts!! :eek:

[bermuda]

Goldman Raises Coking Coal Price Forecast on Demand, Congestion

By Tan Hwee Ann

Oct. 22 (Bloomberg) -- Goldman Sachs JBWere Pty., the Australian affiliate of the world's largest securities firm, raised its contract coking coal price forecasts 17 percent, pacing higher cash prices for the steelmaking ingredient from India.

The annual contract price of coking coal may rise to a record $140 a metric ton in the 12 months from April 1, from $98 this year, the brokerage said. It had forecast $120 a ton.

Port and rail congestion in Australia, the world's largest exporter of coal, have restricted supply as Asian demand surges. BHP Billiton Ltd., the world's largest mining company, and rivals start talks with Japanese and Chinese steelmakers to set annual contract prices for coking coal and iron ore this month.

``We believe Australian coal suppliers are extremely well positioned to secure significantly higher contract prices,'' Goldman analysts Malcolm Southwood and Paul Gray said in an Oct. 19 report. There was ``no quick fix in sight for the severe congestion afflicting Australian coal supply chains and no let up in demand,'' they said.

Australian exporters recently sold coal to Indian buyers on the spot market at $165 a ton, Goldman said in the report.

BHP's Chief Executive Officer Marius Kloppers said last week that he hadn't seen iron ore and coking coal in shorter supply. The Melbourne-based company increased sales to India by 56 percent in the six months ended June from a year ago, selling coking coal and metals.

Power Stations

Energy, or thermal coal, used in power stations, may rise 35 percent to $75 a ton in 2008, from $56 a ton this year, Goldman said. The broker had forecast a price of $68 a ton.

Heavy rainfall in Indonesia, the world's largest exporter of energy coal, and port and rail congestion in Australia both curbed supply, the broker said. Asian power stations may engage in ``panic buying'', and send the cash market for thermal coal to $80 a ton, Goldman said.

The effect of forecast higher coal prices on the earnings of BHP and rival Rio Tinto Group will be more than offset by the rising Australian dollar, Goldman said. A stronger Australian dollar, boosting costs for BHP and Rio's Australian mines, will more than erode the price gains, it said.

The broker cut its 2008 earnings forecasts for BHP and London-based Rio by 2 percent and 3.9 percent respectively.

The Australian dollar has gained 12 percent this year, and touched its highest since 1984 last week.

Goldman Sachs also forecast that the contract price for semi- soft coking coal will rise 33 percent to $85 a ton, and the price for pulverized coal will rise 41 percent to $95 a ton.

To contact the reporter on this story: Tan Hwee Ann in Melbourne at hatan@bloomberg.net

Last Updated: October 22, 2007 00:20 EDT

If I was chairing the PRC AGM tomorrow I would put the above report up on the screen and then break out the sausage rolls.

A contract price of $US140 per tonne and a spot price of $US160 per tonne !!!
Bring it on.

[Dr_Who]

Arrrgh that hurts!! :eek:

The only thing hurting is my mouth from smiling at the PRC shares I bought at 85 cents.. LOL :D

[Ripping]

55 metres tunnel progress last week.
http://www.pike.co.nz/about-pike-river-coal/Tunnel-scaled.jpg/view

[digger]

I will not be able to make it to the Pike AGM and tunnel tour tomorrow. Was going to go if we could fly down but no hope of that. Be good if we could get some report from those who are going. Thanks
Will drive to wellington for the AGM.

[Scuffer]

How are PRC being impacted by the shortage of skilled labour I would imagine they will have trouble finding staff on the coast just like everywhere else, would be interested in what management have to say on this dilemma as it is a problem for all companies with tradesmen jumping across the ditch.

[bermuda]

For goodness sake Scuffer. You said you were going into hiding. And now you come up with this nonsense,. Why dont you read google and see what's happenning to German coal miners.
Sometimes i really do wonder. best you go duck shooting mate...or take up my bet.

Why do I respond to this sort of rubbish.?

[shasta]

For goodness sake Scuffer. You said you were going into hiding. And now you come up with this nonsense,. Why dont you read google and see what's happenning to German coal miners.
Sometimes i really do wonder. best you go duck shooting mate...or take up my bet.

Why do I respond to this sort of rubbish.?

Steady on Bermuda, you respond as you kindly guide the uninformed.

Even those of us who have been around the traps here for a while, appreciate your feedback.

Must say im looking forward to chatting with you at a future Sharetraders meeting, as i cant make the NZO AGM, due to work committments, damn it!

[the machine]

55 metres tunnel progress last week.
http://www.pike.co.nz/about-pike-river-coal/Tunnel-scaled.jpg/view


ripping looks like 55 metres the previous week - last week only 4 metres - must be fractures ground

M

[Scuffer]

Hey Bermuda when are ya german mates coming to work for pike 2018 when the german subsidies end I think they will all be parked up in Aussie by then on more money with better weather, but then the germans love that alpine touch, ya might be right, better look for my jackboots.I suppose you respond to this rubbish due to frustration with my comments and ya disolution with PRC.

[Ripping]

ripping looks like 55 metres the previous week - last week only 4 metres - must be fractures ground

M
Thats what I thought originally... but look at the dates. Progress for the week starting 15/10 was 55m Week starting the 22 (i.e. this week).. current progress 4 m.
Strangely, they've decided to add interim results, for this incomplete week.

[Bilo]

Thats what I thought originally... but look at the dates. Progress for the week starting 15/10 was 55m Week starting the 22 (i.e. this week).. current progress 4 m.
Strangely, they've decided to add interim results, for this incomplete week.

I thought they were just showing that, with the likely coking coal price hikes next year, they have started to pull out a few stops and worked the holiday Monday.

[Ripping]

I thought they were just showing that, with the likely coking coal price hikes next year, they have started to pull out a few stops and worked the holiday Monday.

I would suspect the workers at the 'coalface' were working Monday, but the admin staff were not. Hence the admin got to work Tuesday and saw four bonus metres....

[duncan macgregor]

I would suspect the workers at the 'coalface' were working Monday, but the admin staff were not. Hence the admin got to work Tuesday and saw four bonus metres.... Strange choice of words RIPPING. The workers were working on monday LOOKING FOR THE BLOODY COALFACE. Macdunk

[bermuda]

Hi Shasta,
I suppose I just get annoyed when posters dont do even the most basic research and then make statements as though they know what's going on.It is misleading to the average poster who uses this site to learn.

I didnt take up my full entitlement but got a few to keep me involved in what could be a very viable company. Of course there are big challenges yet to be overcome.It is a challenging project.

Peter Whittall is a first class coal mine Manager. A very good choice. He will get this mine finished and operating.

In the meantime I am very encouraged by the 'red hot' coking coal market and the chance of a new contract price of $US140 per tonne (fob). The Pike prospectus assumed prices below $US100.

I hope today's AGM goes well

[bermuda]

Hey Bermuda when are ya german mates coming to work for pike 2018 when the german subsidies end I think they will all be parked up in Aussie by then on more money with better weather, but then the germans love that alpine touch, ya might be right, better look for my jackboots.I suppose you respond to this rubbish due to frustration with my comments and ya disolution with PRC.

Sorry mate.There are significant challenges regarding staffing and you are quite right to raise them.
Peter Whittall, the Mine Manager , will solve them.

[duncan macgregor]

Sorry mate.There are significant challenges regarding staffing and you are quite right to raise them.
Peter Whittall, the Mine Manager , will solve them. BERMUDA, You are losing your touch mate. SCUFFER rightly points out labour shortages. Australian mines are finding it tough getting skilled miners, who are now getting huge money by nz standards. You cant just shove tom dick, and harry in with a pick and shovel, like the old days. These guys get about $3000 a week or in other words about 25 ton of pike coal each week in wages otherwise they wont work here. Would you work in a cold wet place like the west coast for less if you were a fully qualified miner. Its alright to stick your head in the sand but one day you always must face reality. Macdunk

[bermuda]

Macdunk,
These are very real issues and I have discussed them with both John Dow and Peter Whittall. As I said these challenges will be met.

I am well aware of the situation across the ditch.

I am also aware of what a reliable coking coal source will be to the world market.As you know , Newcastle has some real problems.

[the machine]

it was a bit hard to read on the chart.
maybe the 4m was to update prior to agm

M

[Dr_Who]

Let Mcdunk talk down the SP so that I can pick up some cheap stock. :D

[Mike.Gayner]

Annual Meeting Address



REL: 1201 HRS Pike River Coal Limited

ADDRESS: PRC: MANAGING DIRECTOR'S ADDRESS TO ANNUAL MEETING

24 October 2007

MANAGING DIRECTOR'S ADDRESS TO ANNUAL MEETING

First Public Annual Meeting
I would like to welcome you all to Pike River Coal's first annual meeting as
a public listed company. It is great to see more than 70 shareholders have
taken the opportunity to attend this meeting and the subsequent tour of the
mine site, in what should be an interesting and informative day.

We have made significant progress over the past year. This includes:

- a successful IPO in July 2007 raising $85 million from New Zealand and
Australian investors
- construction of a 12km access road, including 7 bridges, to the tunnel
entrance
- construction of the tunnel to 1634 metres, 71% complete. I am pleased to
say we had a new daily record of 12 metres last week
- substantial progress with mine site infrastructure including establishment
of power to the mine, delivery of the slurry pipeline for coal transport and
construction of buildings
- construction of the mine equipment, which is on track for delivery when
required
- and lastly, recruitment of a further 11 senior staff

On the downside we have incurred a capital cost increase, mostly associated
with increased tunnelling costs. I will touch on this later, but firstly
turning to the hard coking coal market.

Coal Market and Prices
The Pike River mine is poised to benefit from an expected jump in hard coking
coal prices next year. Demand from India and China continues to be highly
influential. For the first time ever, China has this year become a net
importer of both thermal and coking coal. Pike will produce a premium hard
coking coal used in the steel making process. Market observers are currently
expecting this type of coal to sell at about US$120-125 per tonne in the next
Japanese Fiscal Year (commencing 1 April 2008). This compares to the current
price of US$96 per tonne. Longer term coking coal prices from 2010 onwards
are also expected to lift due to ongoing strong international demand.

Even at full production of 1 million tonnes per year, Pike is a relatively
small player in the international market. 135 million tonnes were traded
internationally in 2006. However, Pike premium coal has some very good
selling properties.
This includes an ultra low ash content (ash is a by-product) and high
fluidity (useful for binding coals when making coke) which has resulted in
strong demand from international steel mills and coke makers. Seventy
percent of the first three year's production has already been sold by Pike
River under long-term contract, subject to agreement on the sales price.

All coal produced by Pike River will be exported and is expected to be sold
in US dollars. A lower kiwi dollar is therefore better for the company once
in production. The New Zealand dollar has remained stubbornly high over the
past year; due largely to high local interest rates. However, New Zealand
trading banks are forecasting an easing of the NZD against the US dollar next
year. Higher New Zealand and Australian exchange rates relative to the US
dollar also typically translate to higher international coal prices as the
Australian coal producers dominate the supply of product.

Mine Development Update

Tunnel Construction and Capex Budget
Good progress is being made with construction of the tunnel which will give
us access to the underground coal deposit. The tunnel has been more than
doubled in length in the past five months since May 2007 to 1634 metres (71%
complete) by international contracting firm McConnell Dowell. There is a
further 666 metres to go and we expect to hit first coal at the end of April
2008. That is about one month later than previously forecast, although there
is still potential for some slippage of 1 to 3 months. However, that is an
inherent risk with any tunnel construction project.

Whilst rates of tunnel advance have been good, the tunnel rock itself has
proven to be more fractured than expected in May 2007. Due to the difficult
surface topography- this is "tiger country" - it was not possible to drill
the tunnel alignment with test holes before construction started.
Accordingly, our expert geological advisors have had to rely on rock outcrops
and surface mapping to predict tunnel rock conditions. The possibility of
more difficult conditions was allowed for in project costings, but not to the
extent encountered. In fact, based on tunnelling experience to date, we now
expect nearly all the tunnel to be in the more expensive rock classes, rather
than a maximum of 40%.

In September 2007, the Board approved an $11 million (6%) increase in the
mine development budget. This takes the approved budget to $185 million
(excluding the working capital budget of $33 million which is unchanged).

Overall, the benefit to Pike River of higher coal prices is expected to more
than offset the increased mine development costs.

Infrastructure
Significant progress has been made with other key mine site infrastructure in
the past 5 months. This includes:
- June 2007 - a $19.2 million coal preparation plant contract signed (within
budget) with Brightwater-PEAT Limited
- July 2007 - an $11.6 million electrical supply contract to the mine
completed (within budget) by Westpower and Transpower
- August 2007 - the administration and engineering buildings completed (where
we are now) by Evan Jones
- August 2007 - final formation of access road to mine site completed.

A major piece of infrastructure required is the coal preparation plant. This
plant will receive all of the raw coal from the mine through a 10.6 kilometre
coal slurry pipeline. That coal will be "washed" at the plant to remove
diluting rocks and deliver a clean, dewatered product into stockpiles for
haulage to the port at Greymouth. Site preparation, detailed design and
hazard reviews for the coal preparation plant have been completed. To
recover several months lost time in starting construction, certain plant
pre-fabrication work will be done 'off-site'.
Construction of the plant will commence late October and be completed in May
2008 in time for first coal processing.

Mining Equipment
In the first year of mining, coal will be recovered by three mining machines.
These machines construct tunnels in the coal seam to provide access for the
high pressure water cutting system, which will be implemented in the second
year of mining. The first machine, a $3.8 million roadheader manufactured by
Waratah Engineering in Australia, is due for delivery to the mine site in
November 2007. This roadheader was on display at an international mining
exhibition in Sydney (NSW) in early September and attracted a lot of
attention for its design and safe modes of roof support installation. The
two companion continuous miners, also being manufactured by Waratah at a
combined cost of $9.0 million are currently en route from initial fabrication
in Germany to Waratah. Delivery of the continuous miners to the mine site is
scheduled for January 2008.

The mine has also taken possession of its first two flameproof load haul dump
machines, two personnel transporters and a general purpose underground
tractor in the past couple of months. These will be followed in the coming
months with several more similar machines.

Mine Design and Production
Considerable work has been undertaken by the Pike engineering team in the
past few months on detailed planning for the ventilation shaft and pit bottom
area. The pit bottom is the 'underground heart' of the mine. The results
from 3 recently drilled boreholes have usefully confirmed our geological
model for that area. Production in the 12 months after hitting first coal is
forecast at 240,000 tonnes (year ended 30 April 2009), building to 1 million
tonnes in the following 12 months (year ended 30 April 2010).

Health and Safety
A high standard is demanded in health and safety by the company and from our
contractors. In the year ended 30 June 2007, 119,000 hours had been worked on
the mine development with 7 injury events (1 for every 17,000 hours worked).
It is pleasing that none of the injuries concerned was classed as serious
harm.

Recruitment
Pike has appointed a highly experienced management team with over 180 years
of combined coal mining experience. Recruitment of the general mine work
force is now a major activity. Over the next six months, fifty staff will be
recruited in time for first coal. In a noteworthy initiative; a New Zealand
first, Pike has organised a vastly quicker testing process with New Zealand
qualification and training authorities, for employees with overseas
qualifications. This accelerated the process of obtaining formal recognition
of a senior mine engineer's qualifications by 3-4 months and will benefit
Pike and other mining employers going forward.

Transport

Transport is an integral part of the mine operation. Pike River coal will be
transported by the West Coast Coal Company Limited (WCCC) consortium by road
to Greymouth and moved on two purpose built self propelled vessels to Port
Taranaki for export to India, Japan, Brazil, Europe and other markets.

A shipbuilding contract for the vessels has been signed by Jebsens Kristian
Rederi AS (WCCC member). Commencement of ship and port construction is
pending completion of WCCC's financing arrangements. Jebsens have agreed
terms of ship financing, subject to final documentation and Jebsens board
approval. Port Taranaki Limited (the WCCC lead member), has agreed in July
2007 with its shareholder, Taranaki Regional Council, that subject to the
satisfactory completion of a public consultation process, the shareholder
would support Port Taranaki debt financing via provision of a guarantee.

WCCC and Pike River have extended the expected date for completion of ship
and port financing to 15 November 2007 (or such later date as the parties
agree).

As flagged in the IPO prospectus, several alternatives for transporting the
first 6 months of coal exports, in the region of 60,000 tonnes, are being
explored. This includes shipping by barge from Greymouth or railing through
Solid Energy's transport chain to Port Lyttelton.

Financial
The company made a loss of $657,000 in the year ended 30 June 2007, which
should be viewed in the context of our current pre-production activities.
$57 million was invested in the mine development during the year ended 30
June 2007, and a further $20 million since, taking the total amount invested
since 1 July 2005 to $105 million.

The company completed a successful IPO in July 2007 which raised $85 million
(prior to costs). This allowed repayment in July 2007 of $18.5 million
short-term loans from shareholders used to fund mine development costs.

Westpac Bank has been mandated on an exclusive and best efforts basis to
arrange debt funding of $65 million and is to work with other banks
experienced in mining finance to fund those facilities. This debt would be
available once the tunnel intersects the coal seam, expected to be April
2008. Pike River is working with Westpac to progress introduction of a
second bank, with the objective of finalising debt financing by the end of
January 2008.

New Zealand Oil & Gas has agreed that at any time after 1 January 2008, if
Pike River requests funding to complete the development of the mine into
first coal production, having expended the $85 million raised under the IPO,
NZOG will provide equity funding or other financial support of up to $25
million to Pike River on usual and reasonable 'arms' length terms and
conditions which we have yet to agree. We are also evaluating alternative
means of bridging the funding gap until bank debt is available.

Carbon Emissions Trading Policy
The Government has announced its carbon emissions trading policy in September
2007. Whilst the policy is yet to move through the legislative process,
importantly, coal exports are to be exempted from the emissions trading
scheme. To do otherwise would be to penalise the New Zealand coal industry
compared to our international competitors and we are pleased to see this
matter being treated rationally.

Community and the Environment
The company plays an increasingly important part in the local Grey District
community. Pike will become the Grey District's fourth largest employer once
the mine is running at full production. At that time the local spend on
labour, services, power and transport will be approximately $35 million per
annum. We are pleased to sponsor many worthy local organisations and
events. This includes main sponsorships of the West Coast Search and Rescue
bus and the Moonlight Community biathlon. Pike's growing workforce and
families are also very active in local sporting and community events.

Pike has implemented several significant environmental programmes. One of
these is a pest control programme where thirty five kilometres of tracks are
currently being established in the local catchment areas to service four
hundred and sixty rat bait stations and stoat kill traps. The objective is to
significantly reduce predation which has seriously harmed native birdlife
including the locally found blue duck (whio).

As those of you here today will have observed, construction of access to the
mine and facilities has required very careful engineering and construction to
minimise environmental impacts. Much consultation has been undertaken with
the Department of Conservation, local councils, iwi and other interest groups
to achieve this result. We wish to thank those parties, and the various
companies involved in construction for meeting the high standards set. We
intend to ensure these high standards are maintained in underground mining
operations.

Closing Comments

In summary, progress with the mine development is proceeding satisfactorily,
coal prices are expected to improve significantly next year and there is an
expectation that the New Zealand dollar will weaken against the US dollar
over the next year. The company's share price has picked up in recent weeks
to its current level of approximately $1.00. As we get closer to first coal
production, risk continues to be removed from your investment. I would expect
this to translate to an improved share price - but that is in the hands of
the market! I wish to express my thanks to the Pike management team and staff
for their efforts over another very busy year and for what I am sure will be
an equally busy and productive year ahead.

[duncan macgregor]

If i am allowed to be objective without being over critical then i viewed the report as to be expected, with a fair bit of the risk being accounted for. The one thing that i see that they have wrong, is the strength of the NZ dollar against the American dollar. The American dollar is in a long slow downtrend against what we can expect from the NZ dollar. The NZ dollar will drop against the AUD, but not against the American dollar. I just finished listening to that on the asia business program, and feel inclined to agree. The american dollar according to the experts will weaken against the Canadian and Australian dollar rather badly, so to tie up prices in a dropping currency is a mistake. Macdunk

[Wiremu]

Macdunk,

The one thing I have learned is that when the "experts" on currency start to share a common view - do exactly the opposite.

They never get it right, let alone close.

Good to see you with an objective view.

[Scuffer]

I can see a deal with Lyttelton port on coal transportation at some point even if it is only in the initial stages, Solid energy are finding it difficult to keep a supply to the port so there is a gap that Pike could fill, and I'm sure that LPC would accomodate them.

[Mr Tommy]

"Even at full production of 1 million tonnes per year, Pike is a relatively
small player in the international market. 135 million tonnes were traded
internationally in 2006. "

Is this figure correct, only 135m tonnes traded internationally, so Pike will be just under 1% of all the worlds traded coal?

I just googled australian coal and they exported about 240m tonnes alone in 2004.

from Wikipedia....
Exports of Coal by Country and year (million tonnes)[34] Country 2003 2004
Australia 238.1 247.6
United States 43.0 48.0
South Africa 78.7 74.9
Former Soviet Union 41.0 55.7
Poland 16.4 16.3
Canada 27.7 28.8
People's Republic of China 103.4 95.5
South America 57.8 65.9
Indonesia 107.8 131.4
Total 713.9 764.0

[777]

Tommy why don't you email them and ask them to confirm the tonnage. Suggest they look at wikipedia themselves.

http://www.pike.co.nz/

[Billy Boy]

Mr Tommy
I think they were talking "High Quality coking Coal" at 135m tonnes
Not coal in total
BB

[BWR]

If you still have a copy of the prospectus look at page 103, the AME Consulting independent review of the export metallurgical coal market, which shows total hard coking coal imports worldwide of 135 million tonnes in 2006.

[AMR]

Bermuda, did they say anything regarding the issue of bonus options?

[Mr Tommy]

Mr Tommy
I think they were talking "High Quality coking Coal" at 135m tonnes
Not coal in total
BB

BWR / Billy Boy, something still doesnt tie up, check this site ...

http://www.australiancoal.com.au/exports0506.htm

For 2005-06 australia exported:
Metallurgical 117.8m
Thermal 114.8m
Total for Australia 232.6m

So how can the world traded metallurgical total only be 135m, has Australia cut back?

[tim23]

Good call on the currency Wiremu - 1/2 the experts are always wrong, you only know after the event! And then they are experts in hindsight.

[upside_umop]

yeah the nzd will rise more against the usd in my thinking. i still see increased inflationary pressures from high oil prices which will translate soon. then further interest rate rises will then be on the cards, and a higher nzd.

this shouldnt affect prc so much in medium term as they are only going to be mining 250,000 tons in the first year...its after that first year when it ramps up to their projected 1 million tons is what would be the problem.

by then, im thinking we would have seen the worst over (house sales already slumping), then house prices maybe falling so much that the RB will give in and lower them based on chances of recession just like the fed did..then our dollar will take a nose dive and exporters will be in...

will be an interesting few years thats for sure.

[duncan macgregor]

Good call on the currency Wiremu - 1/2 the experts are always wrong, you only know after the event! And then they are experts in hindsight. Tim, Its a bit like buying shares you only know for sure if a good buy or not after the event. We all work things out before the event in our own way exchange rates share price trends or whatever. I worked out in 2006 that my money was better invested in Australia, simply because of my anticipated drop in the NZ dollar against the AUD. I am now 7% up or near enough because of that decision. Only a fool would back the American dollar to trend up at this time. The Canadian and Australian dollars will trend up against the American and NZ dollars, hindesight not required. PRC to fix prices in American dollar terms is a mistake, as you will see in the near future unless they can change the terms of trade. Why not fix the price to the currency of destination for instance India, and China are on the move, America is going down the gurgler. The canadian and Australian dollars are trending up simply because of the commodoty demand. NZ are in a poor condition in that regard. Macdunk

[bermuda]

Bermuda, did they say anything regarding the issue of bonus options?
Sorry, wasnt at the meeting.Played golf in horrendous winds and returned home to find my porch roof had blown off. Just after I had built a new one following hail damage.

PRC costs will increase but so will the coking coal price.

[ratkin]

The price of coke is not the issue.

Point is this young company has already had to front up and explain that costs are going to be higher than expected. Could be the tip of the iceberg and does not fill investors with confidence.

Waving away the significance of these extra costs by claiming higher coke costs will cover them dosent cover up the fact they have understated the costs involved.


I will be staying well clear of this outfit

[biker]

The extra costs are for certain; The coke price isn't. Still lots of de-risking to be done.

[Unicorn]

I think I will stay on the sidelines for a bit longer.

What concerns me most is ..."Commencement of ship and port construction is pending completion of WCCC's financing arrangements. WCCC and Pike River have extended the expected date for completion of ship and port financing to 15 November 2007 (or such later date as the parties agree).

The Prospectus (5 June) had financing due by 29 June (i.e 24 days). It was later delayed to 30 September, and now to 15 November (i.e 20 weeks later it is still 24 days away!). In my view the failure to arrange the transport chain financing in a timely manner is now likely to see volume shipments (i.e any significant income) being pushed back into 2009.

There is a lot of potential in PRC, but until there is evidence of the total project delivering to plan the risk is above what I could accept.

[boysy]

i Think its fair to say that the increase in costs alone will be less than the increase in coking coal prices stated in the prospectus SO FAR. This is a classic risk return scenario will the higher coking coal prices outweigh the increase in costs ? is the risk associated with this scenareo worth taking ? i think yes but every one has there own slant opinion just as every one has a different risk return factor. i think people have to realise as time continues and PRC starts to de risk the project people have to start to change there views based on facts not personal opinions. and for the record i am not a PRC holder .

[the machine]

I think I will stay on the sidelines for a bit longer.

What concerns me most is ..."Commencement of ship and port construction is pending completion of WCCC's financing arrangements. WCCC and Pike River have extended the expected date for completion of ship and port financing to 15 November 2007 (or such later date as the parties agree).

The Prospectus (5 June) had financing due by 29 June (i.e 24 days). It was later delayed to 30 September, and now to 15 November (i.e 20 weeks later it is still 24 days away!). In my view the failure to arrange the transport chain financing in a timely manner is now likely to see volume shipments (i.e any significant income) being pushed back into 2009.

There is a lot of potential in PRC, but until there is evidence of the total project delivering to plan the risk is above what I could accept.

your not suggesting that nog time [in 2 weeks] has made the transition over to prc [following GW] and we now have prc time [24 days] are you?

M

[Nitaa]

Good post Unicorn.

The financing is a big issue and appears one of the reasons why NZO may need to help with the funding. This looks to be odds on that PRC will excercise their right of up to $25m.

A couple of points to consider.. coking coal prices were around the US$30 per tonne ony a few years ago. Im not sure what the breakeven point is but even if its at $50 then there is a fair chunk going into the bottom line. Again the unkown comes into play and those figures wont be know with any certainty for a couple of years at least.

I got to give NZO and PRC a 10 out of 10 for getting it this far. Initially most companies would not have touched it for a mile.

Long term looks a good investment

[Scuffer]

I think I will stay on the sidelines for a bit longer.

What concerns me most is ..."Commencement of ship and port construction is pending completion of WCCC's financing arrangements. WCCC and Pike River have extended the expected date for completion of ship and port financing to 15 November 2007 (or such later date as the parties agree).

The Prospectus (5 June) had financing due by 29 June (i.e 24 days). It was later delayed to 30 September, and now to 15 November (i.e 20 weeks later it is still 24 days away!). In my view the failure to arrange the transport chain financing in a timely manner is now likely to see volume shipments (i.e any significant income) being pushed back into 2009.

There is a lot of potential in PRC, but until there is evidence of the total project delivering to plan the risk is above what I could accept.

Too right Buddy, watch them start and move the black stuff through Lyttelton, at the start its the only viable option they might have to do a deal with solid energy and organise the trains but its common sense then they can start to see money coming in and they are a producer with the ball rolling.

[BWR]

BWR / Billy Boy, something still doesnt tie up, check this site ...

http://www.australiancoal.com.au/exports0506.htm

For 2005-06 australia exported:
Metallurgical 117.8m
Thermal 114.8m
Total for Australia 232.6m

So how can the world traded metallurgical total only be 135m, has Australia cut back?

Mr Tommy,

You are taking the hard coking coal category to be the same as total traded metallurgical coal. Hard coking coal is only one of several categories making up the traded metallurical coal sector.

In brief metallurgical coal is classified into three major categories, being hard coking coal, sem-soft coking coal, and coal for pulverised coal injection. Hard coking coal represented around 62% of total metallurgical coal in 2006.

If you look at http://www.pike.co.nz and to /reports/other-documents/australian-prospectus2.pdf the full AME report can be viewed, with Table 1 showing the metallurgical coal sector categories, and the reference sources for those figures.

[oldowl]

Tough rock drives costs up
By MARTA STEEMAN - The Press | Thursday, 25 October 2007

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Tunnelling the Pike River coalmine has proved more difficult than expected, Pike River Coal's shareholders were told yesterday at the firm's inaugural annual meeting.


"In fact, based on tunnelling experience to date we now expect nearly all the tunnel to be in the more expensive rock classes, rather than a maximum of 40 per cent," managing director Gordon Ward told about 70 shareholders at the meeting, which was held at the mine site.

The 2300-metre tunnel to the coal seam was 71% complete with 666m to go. Pike River Coal (PRC) expected to hit the coal seam next April 30.

That was about a month later than previously forecast although there was still potential for more slippage of one to three months, Ward said.

Last month, PRC said it had approved an $11 million increase for the extra tunnelling costs taking the approved budget to $185m, excluding a working capital budget of $33m.

Since July 2005, $105m had been spent on the underground mine development. The mine is in the Paparoa Range, 46km north of Greymouth with the access road cutting through Department of Conservation land. PRC raised $85m in an issue of shares to the public in July. Overall, the benefit of higher coal prices was expected to more than offset the increased mine development costs, Ward said yesterday.

Pike was poised to reap the benefit of an expected jump in hard coking coal prices next year. China and India were big influences on the price. For the first time China had become a net importer of thermal and coking coal.

Ward said market commentators were expecting premium hard coking coal – the type PRC would produce – to sell about $US120-125 a tonne from next April, compared to the current price of $US96.

Construction of the $19.2m coal preparation plant was expected to start at the end of the month and be completed in May next year in time for the first processing of coal.

Production in the first 12 months to April 2009 was forecast to be 240,000 tonnes building to 1m tonnes in the following year.

In the next six months the company would recruit 50 staff.

The company was looking at options to transport the first coal exports of about 60,000 tonnes next year. A possibility was by rail to Lyttelton Port.

Transport by two purpose-built vessels from Greymouth to Taranaki for export from there was being finalised by the West Coast Coal Consortium, Ward said.

Ward told shareholders coal exports were to be exempt from the Government's carbon emissions trading scheme.

Once the mine was running at full capacity, PRC's mine would be the fourth largest employer in the Grey District and would spend about $35m a year in the local economy on labour, services, power and transport.

[Dr_Who]

I was expecting PRC to hold up above $1. The resistance $1 has not been breached, so the sp may fall back down abit. A graph specialist may want to comment.

[sideline]

I was expecting PRC to hold up above $1. The resistance $1 has not been breached, so the sp may fall back down abit. A graph specialist may want to comment.

I am not a graph specialist, but a look on a chart tells me a retrace to 95c or 96c would leave the recent
uptrend intact.

[duncan macgregor]

I was expecting PRC to hold up above $1. The resistance $1 has not been breached, so the sp may fall back down abit. A graph specialist may want to comment.
The oil spill is the fundamental reason beleave it or not for the sp to drop. It is the self same reason my mining shares in Australia go up and down with trends in the DOW.
Its the Domino effect something that has nothing fundamentely to do with anything has a ripple on effect. A classic example of this was Apollo mining co whose share price rose and dropped with the Apollo missions in the sixties. The market has no obligation to make sense, dont expect it look at what moves it and exploit it. Macdunk

[upside_umop]

dont think it would be to do with the oil spill maca dee, but more likely the annual meeting setting into peoples thoughts with higher costs than expected...


yeah, the uptrend would be broken if it breaches 95-96 cents by my looks.

[Billy Boy]

I have some spare cash comming due October's end so I hope the SP goes
below 90c and I will be in for more. Only six months or so untill first coal.
BB

[bermuda]

Good thinking Billy Boy.
Have a look at this mornings CHCH Press .The Indian iron ore market is going ballistic in order to provide steel for the oncoming huge building of India's infrastructure.

This correlates to long a term increasing demand for coking coal. Easy to see why PRC has a couple of powerful Indian coking coal coal companies on their register.

We gotta look at the big picture.

[glennj]

Hi guys. I've been back on the Coast nearly three months & have had a talk with some of the workers, staff and contractors plus an independent geologist as recently as today. Might sound a bit McDunkish but these guys are advocating caution. The worst geology on the access tunnel is yet to be hit so there are more cost blow outs to come?
There are other potential mining difficulties as well. I'm being told by experts? that the current price is too high for the risks involved.
I'm not a holder nor into mining stocks but thought some may appreciate this view from down where it's happening. Might be best to sit on the sidelines until some results at an acceptable cost are on the board!

[Scuffer]

Hi guys. I've been back on the Coast nearly three months & have had a talk with some of the workers, staff and contractors plus an independent geologist as recently as today. Might sound a bit McDunkish but these guys are advocating caution. The worst geology on the access tunnel is yet to be hit so there are more cost blow outs to come?
There are other potential mining difficulties as well. I'm being told by experts? that the current price is too high for the risks involved.
I'm not a holder nor into mining stocks but thought some may appreciate this view from down where it's happening. Might be best to sit on the sidelines until some results at an acceptable cost are on the board!

I was told the same thing about a month or two ago by a mate who had been over there, I did post my concerns on this thread at the time, he told me that they had further to go than they previously thought and it was getting a lot harder to get through the rock.I stand by my first opinion that PRC will be a buy when they start to produce with a transport plan finalised and ready, Lyttelton is still their best option in my book.

[winner69]

..... those bloody overhang things sniper was on about eh

[temuk]

[QUOTE=glennj;170494]The worst geology on the access tunnel is yet to be hit so there are more cost blow outs to come?

I was talking to the Pike geologist on wednesday and they don't really know where what type of rock is ahead so tell me how do the other staff contrators and indepentent geologist ( probably a fella cave who is a greeny and has been anti this project from day 1) know more than him?
Please also note, last week they had 2 days of 12m and on wednesday he thought they would do 10m.so they are in hard rock at the moment.

I was going to hold off but I'll tell you now-they don't know too much about the rock ahead in the tunnel because it was too far to drill down for core samples and went by the cliff face (as seen in the photos)

There was no spare seats on wednesday but there was standing room at the back and there was plenty of question time!

[glennj]

No greenies temuk! All working on the project or have in the past and I respect their opinion. Could say more but will shutup and watch for now.

[tim23]

And I talked to a mate who is working on site and is cautiously optimistic; enough for me to top up my holding.

[Hoop]

Interesting.......some say they don't know the rock type..others do...kinda sounds like local politicking.

One thing for sure that does worry me is that they will be tunnelling through a fault line shortly. Could never figure out how they could do this safely, what happens if the line shifts in an earthquake?

From a laymans perspective the idea of a tunnel through a fault line sounds crazy.
Has modern technical advances got around this problem have they?

[temuk]

I would have thought so to but this was mentioned at the meeting by peter whittall and he said it is safer underground even if there is a fault there and john dow added it would be different if it was between rotorua and tauranga.

[Scuffer]

Sorry mate.There are significant challenges regarding staffing and you are quite right to raise them.
Peter Whittall, the Mine Manager , will solve them.

Apology accepted, now do I get a bottle of Aussie Red,prefer a bottle of kiwi stuff though Cloudy Bay or La Strada pinot noir please, if thats out a beer will do.

[Hoop]

I would have thought so to but this was mentioned at the meeting by peter whittall and he said it is safer underground even if there is a fault there and john dow added it would be different if it was between rotorua and tauranga.

Temuk, Do P Whittall and Co believe that the fault is not active?

...Also did they mention if the tunnelling would be a lot slower digging through the area surrounding the fault.

I apologise for these questions Temuk, apart from the fault being mentioned in the prospectus, it has not been widely telegraphed.

It may attract some negative press from the media when the time comes. This could be my next entry point to accumulate...maybe:)

[temuk]

1/ they do realise earthquakes happen in the area and did talk about the one 2 weeks ago.
2/ they didn't touch on the tunneling speed at the fault, but the last 2 faults they tunneled through have been a little slower. I presume they would have to put in extra roof support bolts as they do in soft rockThe geologist said to me the tunnel has to last at least 20 years so they want to do it once and do it right ( refering to the support bolts)rather than repairing it down the track.

[temuk]

just found the map I was looking for (page 47 of IPO prospectus)
it shows 5 faults, 4 have passed and the last one is where the coal starts

[Billy Boy]

[QUOTE=Hoop;170516]kinda sounds like local politicking.
Your onto it Hoop.
My old Dad was a hard rock miner, cut his teeth on the Hammer & Tap.
I bet there are very few on the Pike job that know what a hammer & tap is
let alone how to use it.
Fault Lines ?? they will just go straight through it, maybe wonder which way it
went, if they dont already know.
Talking to a block(s) who works(ed) on the job ??? yea right !! Good to see the leopard
(mining labour force) has'ent changed its spots. The home guard has the Greatest
stories, fort the greatest battels, and won the war you know. Them's who were there
and really know say bugger all.
Too the Theoretical Sceptic's.......
What about the Milford Tunnel ??
About one and one eight miles long, can pass two trucks in it, been there since the
late thirties, has a few faults. Two of the larger faults have water running in them
constantly. Has,ent shifted. Still going in fact.
The Manapouri Tunnel hit heaps of fault lines and "Sh.t Ground"...
and so on.
Just some thoughts
BB

[Hoop]

Thanks Temuk and BB
From your posts, I think I understand now why not much was mentioned on the faults...it's because it no big deal. Therefore a low risk factor.... ? (hope)

[duncan macgregor]

Faults in a tunnel trending up are no big deal. You are inclined to get water which would require pumping out if it was trending down creating a problem but in this case gravity works in its favour. I think the only major risk is with the shipping which is quite a complex operation. If it was a straight load it on a train, or truck it to a port, then the risk is minimal.
I get very nervous at the idea of double port costs, that can be a troubled area, and in this case double the trouble. Take a look at the trouble LPC gets into from time to time, then double it for West Port, and Taranaki. That is the real risk in holding PRC you are sitting ducks for the unions blackmail. Macdunk

[airedale]

Duncan, if you are going to get paranoic about trade unions then you would never invest in anything in NZ or OZ. Your favourite nickel mining companies are probably solidly unionised.:p

[duncan macgregor]

Duncan, if you are going to get paranoic about trade unions then you would never invest in anything in NZ or OZ. Your favourite nickel mining companies are probably solidly unionised.:p Every risk is just that, its a risk that must be weighed up in your investment decisions. The market always will over react to any circumstance making it a good trade in the future if the risk eventuates. We have buy and hold at any cost types, oblivious to the risk they take. My style of investing looks for risks that do happen, then buy from the panic sellers. Unions are only an essential working mans insurance against being exploited by greedy over the top employers. Look at what TR is screwing out of NZO as an example, or the CEO of Telecom. The risk that PRC is being scewed at the top is greater than the risk of it being screwed at the bottom, but all risk has to be accounted for in the investment decision. Macdunk

[Hoop]

Every risk is just that, its a risk that must be weighed up in your investment decisions. The market always will over react to any circumstance making it a good trade in the future if the risk eventuates. We have buy and hold at any cost types, oblivious to the risk they take. My style of investing looks for risks that do happen, then buy from the panic sellers. Unions are only an essential working mans insurance against being exploited by greedy over the top employers. Look at what TR is screwing out of NZO as an example, or the CEO of Telecom. The risk that PRC is being scewed at the top is greater than the risk of it being screwed at the bottom, but all risk has to be accounted for in the investment decision. Macdunk

I totally agree.

Unions... now that is a risk factor I hadn't thought of. Double handling, double trouble. However Unions v Management risk is lower now than in the bad old days, many decades ago

[Nitaa]

A National led government would make it easier for companies. There will be and is a lot of push from the business round table for Key to make some changes. A significant reduction in workers rights for starters.

[duncan macgregor]

A National led government would make it easier for companies. There will be and is a lot of push from the business round table for Key to make some changes. A significant reduction in workers rights for starters. Will that include the rights of investors to stop top management ripping the company off as we see it with NZO at this very moment?. Macdunk

[Dr_Who]

Will that include the rights of investors to stop top management ripping the company off as we see it with NZO at this very moment?. Macdunk

Hey Mcdunky, would you look at buying this stock and NZO if the chairman steps down?

[duncan macgregor]

Hey Mcdunky, would you look at buying this stock and NZO if the chairman steps down? Only if i could see a profit in it that matched my expectation level. SMY went up today 12.2% IGO up 11.7%MCR up6.6% AGM up 5% all in the first hour of trading in todays market. I doubled my money plus a 7% echange rate gain this year so the likelyhood of coming back to invest in NZO is nil regardless if they change management or not. That is todays decision tomorrows market is in a continual state of flux so i never say never. Macdunk.
DiscL hold SMY,MCR,AGM,IGO,AUZ,MRX,PEM,

[dsurf]

Well done son of Dunk

[airedale]

A National led government would make it easier for companies. There will be and is a lot of push from the business round table for Key to make some changes. A significant reduction in workers rights for starters.

Nita, sensible company managers know that "a significant reduction in workers' rights" will lead to a significant increase in workplace tension which will do nothing for productivity.

Unemployment is low, workers will upstakes and move, probably to Australia. Perhaps you are suggesting that a National government will "make it easier for companies" by increasing unemployment.

Has the National Party learned nothing from the failed lessons of Bill Birch, Ruth Richardson and Jenny Shipley et al.

[blockhead]

A National led government would make it easier for companies. There will be and is a lot of push from the business round table for Key to make some changes. A significant reduction in workers rights for starters.


And why would you want to reduce the rights of workers ???

It is not always the workers screwing us, ask McDunk. I worked as a worker most of my life, if I hadn't had a few rights I would have been screwed by the very types McDunk refers so often to. In fact on my first venture into business I was screwed severely by the business types, fortunately my time fighting for rights as a worker had hardened me enough to know when to fight the bast..ds and get justice.
Don't be afraid of workers rights ! Watch the skimming at the top

[pietrade]

Well said Blocky and Airdale. "The Workers" are just people like you and me trying to make their way in the world. Not a seperate breed to be disparaged and exploited. I find it sad to see the quest for the $ blinding people to that reality.

[bermuda]

She's starting to really boil in Aussie with the Jubilee takeover. Once Pike gets producing at a stabilised rate then watch out for a lot of overseas interest.

[duncan macgregor]

She's starting to really boil in Aussie with the Jubilee takeover. Once Pike gets producing at a stabilised rate then watch out for a lot of overseas interest. The Jubilee take over is nothing at all to do with coal miners. Nickel companies have mostly all doubled in sp in 2007 plus a 7% gain in exchange rate. There has to be a lot of water to flow under the bridge before you can compare a high risk venture like this to nickel companies rolling in profits. Who knows they might come right but the smart money is in nickel,lead,copper, oil, and uranium in a country with a rising dollar. Macdunk

[bermuda]

MacDunk
Sorry I should have mentioned that Xstrata are big into coking coal and are on the look out for undervalued coal companies.They bid for two in September.

The market is hotting up with China's increasing demand for resources and we can expect to see a lot of aquisitions over the next 5 years. The Jubilee example shows how a company can bid say 50% xtra to gain a long term position.

[dsurf]

Bermuda but can't see anyone touching it until transportation is finalised / proven which of course is a huge shame as the shareprice would be a lot higher.

I also suspect the share registry is not supportive for a takeover - The indians have a blocking stake to a full takeover but might be able to be convinced to:

sell for a large profit on the shares AND keep the supply agreement.

Suppose thats the price of guaranteed sales for large % of future production.

(No wonder India is booming)

[Nitaa]

Fair comment posters. I must admit my post was a bit misleading. I was actually pointing to a more business friendly envirnoment should National get into power. Lets be upfront and know that the business round table will want National in power. Many top company excutives will be putting acid on the politiciand to make changes. Its that simple. One way is to reduce workers rights but that is only a part of it. Lower company taxes, less pressure from the greenies and other incentives that can lead to reinvestment into companies.

A lot will depend if its a Nat lead governement (coalition) or if they get there on its own. Current polls suggest that they can although i believe that will marrow enough to make a centre right government. One thing a Nat government would be under is to open restrictions for unskilled labour into NZ. With low unemployment its either pay more for labour or bring more in more workers. I personally hope it doesnt go this way but something is going to give. I guess watch this space.

[airedale]

Fair comment posters. I must admit my post was a bit misleading. I was actually pointing to a more business friendly envirnoment should National get into power. Lets be upfront and know that the business round table will want National in power. Many top company excutives will be putting acid on the politiciand to make changes. Its that simple. One way is to reduce workers rights but that is only a part of it. Lower company taxes, less pressure from the greenies and other incentives that can lead to reinvestment into companies.

A lot will depend if its a Nat lead governement (coalition) or if they get there on its own. Current polls suggest that they can although i believe that will marrow enough to make a centre right government. One thing a Nat government would be under is to open restrictions for unskilled labour into NZ. With low unemployment its either pay more for labour or bring more in more workers. I personally hope it doesnt go this way but something is going to give. I guess watch this space.

Nita, after 9 years of Labour I thought that it was time for a change, even considered voting Nat, but if your thoughts are reflective of Nat party thinking e.g. bringing in unskilled foreign labour...with its attendant social problems....there has to be a better way.
Of course, you can always lead by example and advertise your own job in the Manila Times. There will surely be any number of Philipinos only too willing to take it for a tenth of your salary :rolleyes:.

[shasta]

Nita, after 9 years of Labour I thought that it was time for a change, even considered voting Nat, but if your thoughts are reflective of Nat party thinking e.g. bringing in unskilled foreign labour...with its attendant social problems....there has to be a better way.
Of course, you can always lead by example and advertise your own job in the Manila Times. There will surely be any number of Philipinos only too willing to take it for a tenth of your salary :rolleyes:.

Perhaps when National introduce tax cuts - the wages situation will ease a tad...

Ie, Shift the burden from employers back to the Govt.

I dont believe Pike will have too much trouble getting skilled workers

[upside_umop]

Labour shortages.
The labour govt now is pretty much bringing in unskilled labour. Im a university student, and I have a part time job, at my work there is full time immigrants (indians etc) who are so callled skilled. Sure they have done degrees, most of them masters, but they paid their lecturers for the answers and pass without being skilled. The nz govt still allows them into the country but doesnt allow their qualifications (thank god. But the point im making is, they are in no way skilled, and not helping our 'skilled' labour shortage in nz. Its making it worse imo. why? these immigrants such as indians, phillipinos etc are willing to work for peanuts (as said), and willing to pay high rates for rent, as its a better standard of living than they will get in the likes of their own country without significantly enhancing our needs. This is all happens, giving landlords good rental income and fuelling the property markets. This then turns into a vicous cycle, with the likes of NZ breeding grounds of skilled labour (from nz universities) leaving NZ to greener pastures as money is better and houses cheaper. This overall inflates the problem, since our skilled labour is getting replaced by unskilled, more and more...

The Nats.
I like Alan Bollard. People critisise him a lot, but he knows what hes talking about. He says no tax cuts, but the Nats have played a game saying they will give tax cuts...but not saying when. Cullen argues it will be inflationary - true, and rates would just go up, and more money for Ozzie banks...or maybe the nats would cut working for families and substitute with tax cuts? Key did give some indications of being 2010, which is a while a way. But then again, its all politics isnt it. Will have to wait and see what happens. See that stupid mr dunne saying tax cuts down to 30%? nice for some...but no good for the economy dunne - im just glad hes nothing more than revenue minister? (thats what he is isnt he..)

This is my proposal for the Nats (on a very small angle)
(1) Stop unskilled immigration
(2) Allow only true skilled immigration
(3) Give more incentives for graduates to stay in NZ
(4) Cut working for families

For (3), this would be simple. Give extra tax cuts for graduates for say a 5 year period which would keep graduates in NZ, and hopefully they would settle down, buy a house, repay their debt quicker etc etc..there would then be not as much need for outsourced labour (which a lot of is unskilled) and therefore shortages and wage inflation would slow.

Also, they would partially list some SOE! Be all good. NZX would love it wouldnt they...

Workers Rights.
What about them? There is a limit imo to how much workers should be able to demand.
A significant loss of workers rights will decrease productivity? I thought it would do the opposite...4 week holidays, rise of minimum wages, working for families, its all contributed negatively under the current govt, stretching the labour market. At least the nats would put those things on hold to let productivity catch back up somewhat!

Pike
I dont believe they will have too much trouble getting skilled labour either. A house on the westcoast is almost a tenth the price you pay for something similar in Austrailia if you live near a mine. MacDunk, imagine the coin you could save! Buy a house a year over on the coast, even with pike wages! Some like the westcoast (i personally hate the wet)...but its got things going for it that people will find attractive, and pike will benefit from it.

[shasta]

Labour shortages.
The labour govt now is pretty much bringing in unskilled labour. Im a university student, and I have a part time job, at my work there is full time immigrants (indians etc) who are so callled skilled. Sure they have done degrees, most of them masters, but they paid their lecturers for the answers and pass without being skilled. The nz govt still allows them into the country but doesnt allow their qualifications (thank god. But the point im making is, they are in no way skilled, and not helping our 'skilled' labour shortage in nz. Its making it worse imo. why? these immigrants such as indians, phillipinos etc are willing to work for peanuts (as said), and willing to pay high rates for rent, as its a better standard of living than they will get in the likes of their own country without significantly enhancing our needs. This is all happens, giving landlords good rental income and fuelling the property markets. This then turns into a vicous cycle, with the likes of NZ breeding grounds of skilled labour (from nz universities) leaving NZ to greener pastures as money is better and houses cheaper. This overall inflates the problem, since our skilled labour is getting replaced by unskilled, more and more...

The Nats.
I like Alan Bollard. People critisise him a lot, but he knows what hes talking about. He says no tax cuts, but the Nats have played a game saying they will give tax cuts...but not saying when. Cullen argues it will be inflationary - true, and rates would just go up, and more money for Ozzie banks...or maybe the nats would cut working for families and substitute with tax cuts? Key did give some indications of being 2010, which is a while a way. But then again, its all politics isnt it. Will have to wait and see what happens. See that stupid mr dunne saying tax cuts down to 30%? nice for some...but no good for the economy dunne - im just glad hes nothing more than revenue minister? (thats what he is isnt he..)

This is my proposal for the Nats (on a very small angle)
(1) Stop unskilled immigration
(2) Allow only true skilled immigration
(3) Give more incentives for graduates to stay in NZ
(4) Cut working for families

For (3), this would be simple. Give extra tax cuts for graduates for say a 5 year period which would keep graduates in NZ, and hopefully they would settle down, buy a house, repay their debt quicker etc etc..there would then be not as much need for outsourced labour (which a lot of is unskilled) and therefore shortages and wage inflation would slow.

Also, they would partially list some SOE! Be all good. NZX would love it wouldnt they...

Workers Rights.
What about them? There is a limit imo to how much workers should be able to demand.
A significant loss of workers rights will decrease productivity? I thought it would do the opposite...4 week holidays, rise of minimum wages, working for families, its all contributed negatively under the current govt, stretching the labour market. At least the nats would put those things on hold to let productivity catch back up somewhat!

Pike
I dont believe they will have too much trouble getting skilled labour either. A house on the westcoast is almost a tenth the price you pay for something similar in Austrailia if you live near a mine. MacDunk, imagine the coin you could save! Buy a house a year over on the coast, even with pike wages! Some like the westcoast (i personally hate the wet)...but its got things going for it that people will find attractive, and pike will benefit from it.

UU

Dig up the old topic thread about National winning & see my post about how i would like things to play out...but tax cuts will win the election.

I had people suggesting i go into politics in agreement!

That aside, i have a good mate who went to Aussie & worked around from Perth to Darwin for mining companies (mainly RIO subsidiaries) & when i told him about the Pike River coalmine he was looking to get his train drivers ticket to bolster his chances of employment (being ex toll holdings) & to come back.

He was earning really good coin over there, but said too hot & Perth esp was too expensive to buy a house etc.

One look at the house prices down the Coast & he was keen...

He knew of many kiwis that he worked with that would come back (& funnily enough some wouldnt while Labour was in Govt!).

Guess its a big lifestyle change moving down the coast!

[duncan macgregor]

Who cares who wins the election i dont vote it only encourages them. Listen to parliament for petes sake, who cares?, get rid of the lot, and run it like a company. If PRC want to compete they must pay Aussie wages for starters to attract qualified miners to work here. There is an acute shortage of those in australia but they still have double the skilled ratio in comparison to NZ mines to unskilled. The NZ level is at dangerous levels, so anyone lording it over the skilled workforce, or trying to undercut their wages has no show.
The pick and shovel days are over guys, this will be a problem to overcome regardless if national wins the election or not. If the greenies by some fluke win the govt benches then you might as well forget your mine ,and head to Australia where you will find most of the qualified NZ miners at this vert time. Macdunk

[Billy Boy]

Its not so much about "What you Earn in dollar terms"
IT"S
" How Much you end up with in the bank at the end of the year"
AND
Is you marrage still in place.
Did you enjoy the pasted year
Would you move tomorrow If You Could.
Would you be better off all round - somewhere else
Pike will get its workers.
BB
Once a KIWI - Always a KIWI

[Toddy]

You go for it Billy Boy.

[Scuffer]

Skilled workers, are you talking about indentured tradesmen, they are as rare as rockinghorse turds, try hiring a few ya might get some from an agency if ya lucky. Tradesmen of good calibre are being courted by prospective employers world wide they are a dying breed.Good luck to Pike, but they won't come cheap if they leave a good job in the city to live on the coast they will be looking for a lifestyle change, all existing employers will fight to keep the quality they already have knowing full well if they walk they cannot replace them.

[upside_umop]

maccy dee, all talk, no proof.
still havent told me what the mining costs are in ozzy?
you talk all this stuff, mostly common sense, but your still in nz?
why in nz? if its so poo, go to ozzie mate.
the thing is, nz has things going for it, maybe not money wise, but other things i will no explain again. if you cant see that, then...well? i cant help you see it anymore i guess.

i follow bermuda, bb, shasta on this one, pike will get workers.
they may have some trouble, but who doesnt...

you talk of who cares about politics. look at zimbabewe. its a shambles. its stuffed.
but i do like the idea of running it like a company...i have thought of that myself.

shasta, i will take a look through politics section one day, i got company accounting exam friday...arghh consolidations :S

[Nitaa]

hmmmmmm. running it like a company? who are the stakeholders? the people of nz? if so then the government is a form of company.

if it was a private company then nz would like like many of the third world countries within a couple of years.

On a different note. I saw Blood Diamond last night. Great movie.

Now where were we.. PRC..The tunnelling and transporting costs have blown out astronomically. I am not sure the specifics of the contract with tunnellers (is that what you call them?) but they were on an decent incentive to complete it by a certain time. Then NZO/PRC stumped up another $20m for the conveyer if im not mistaken. Seems like NZO/PRC didnt protect themselves enough when it came to the agreement.

With all this happening it is a forgone conclusion that PRC will exercise their right for the $25m financing deal.

Still medium to long term hasnt changed my view in the value of this company

[Bacchus]

Nita
If you have finished that cheap bottle of sherry/wine/grog what ever - could you repost your veiws in a more coherent fashion.

I'm holding this stock with an expectation of good capital gain in the near to long term
but unfortunatly have doubts about the abilities of the current directors to fulfil my hopes.

[bermuda]

Doesnt take a genius to realise this will be a $2-3 stock in 2 years time.

I mean why buy Telecom?

[dsurf]

Bermuda - that would mean NZO north of $2

[Wilkins_Micawber]

Bermuda - that would mean NZO north of $2

If I remember correctly, 4 cents on the PRC share price is worth 1 cent per NZO share (based on shares on issue and NZOs share of PRC). So if PRC went to $2 it should add approx 25 cents to NZO share price - it the NZO options are taken up this 1 to 4 ratio (approx) would be further diluted ...

[dsurf]

Wilkins Mc - These markets do not rely on fundamentals when pricing shares or NZO would be trading at around $1.50 and have enjoyed a rising shareprice while the price of oil has risen. For PRC to be $2 to $3 then it is profitably producing & NZO would have 2 (maybe 3) cashflow streams, be de- risked and most importantly sentiment to NZ resource / metals would have changed.

More important is the Mcdunk type of investor - and they are all over the ditch in the big pond (thought I would say that this page so McD doesn't have to)

[the machine]

60 metres for the week - very good

M

[Ripping]

60 metres for the week - very good

M

yes, making some good headway in what is supposedly the more difficult section of the tunnel.
going quite nicely.

[manxman]

60 metres for the week - very good

M

Seriously good. And it looks like under 100 metres to go before they branch out into the labyrinthe. Does PRC start on this bit while the main tunnel keeps pushing to the first coal, or do McC-D handle all the excavations in the rock?

Mx

[the machine]

Seriously good. And it looks like under 100 metres to go before they branch out into the labyrinthe. Does PRC start on this bit while the main tunnel keeps pushing to the first coal, or do McC-D handle all the excavations in the rock?

Mx


would have expected McC-D to escavate the labyrinthe

M

[dsurf]

I believe Mac Dunk has a lot of mining experience - he is an expert on transporting coal, skilled labour availability, coking coal prices etc so I am sure a tunnel or two is no problem

[AMR]

McD = McConnell Dowell, right? I didn't read the prospectus all that throughly.

[Rabbi]

I just got back from the Coast. I heard from an ex solid energy manager that they will soon have ventilation problems. He seemed to think there would almost certainly be a gas buildup when the stonedrive hit the fault, necessitating the contractor stopping the tunnel to address the ventilation issue. I imagine the Co. will make an announcement if this problem ensues.

[RossT]

My first post. Hello to everyone. There is a ventilation shaft included in the mine pit bottom works plans, which is planned for the december Quarter. This is according to the September 07 Activities report on the website.

[Bixbite]

Rabbi

Please refer to page 51 of the Prospectus, there is a picture.

Cheers
Bixbite

[Rabbi]

Thanks guys. They hit the fault at 1.9km so they can't be far off. It looks like the ventilation issue shouldn't be a problem, according to the prospectus.

[temuk]

It has also been mentioned ( i can't find where ) that the gas will have emited out the cliff face.

the coal machinery they already have at the mine has gas monitors attached. see photos on pike web site.
from memory they have 2 driftrunners,1 grader and 3 loader type things that I can't remember the name of.

[Billy Boy]

I heard from an ex solid energy manager that they will soon have ventilation problems.

Rabbi.
All mines have ventilation issues. Coy's use bloody great blowers from outside, to the
tunnel face. When explosives are used, most miners wait for the air to clear, else the
most monty of head ache's hit you. Also small particials of dust are removed from the
air along with water dampening (called watering the bogg pile). Engine exhaust's have
got to be removed. that's all happening now. Any coal gas will be extracted along with
all the other nasties. The ventilation shaft will make the whole process more efficient.
Cheers BB

[Bilo]

In response to a specific request from W and my own reaction to an NZ Herald report of the AGM that there could be a delay in the tunnel of a couple of months - attributed to Gordon Ward. I have updated my original projection of the tunnel plan and progress against it. It hints of a deliberate attempt to under promise and over deliver. At least the sub-contractor appears to be sticking to the original plan:

Here's the new link:

http://www.fixx.co.nz/downloads/Tunnel%20progress%20071105.gif

[manxman]

In response to a specific request from W and my own reaction to an NZ Herald report of the AGM that there could be a delay in the tunnel of a couple of months - attributed to Gordon Ward. I have updated my original projection of the tunnel plan and progress against it. It hints of a deliberate attempt to under promise and over deliver. At least the sub-contractor appears to be sticking to the original plan:


Thanks for the update Bilo. They really are quite close to the original target even though some of us (and all of me) thought they were going to miss the boat quite badly. I'm not sure what happens in a couple of weeks when they get to the pit bottom area. Can they deploy extra resources and keep the main drive up to speed, or is there a slowing down of linear progess while the complex is excavated.

Under promising and over delivering is a great philosophy in contracting.

Mx

[Bilo]

Mx
I was hoping that that was the sort of thing that the extra cash allocated enables them to achieve. Not just an overrun in cost doing the same old - but an increase in scope by the purchaser, and payment of bonus, and payment for difficult rock conditions. McC&D could do nicely out of this one.

Time until cash inflows has an easily calculable equivalent in money now. Just as the project cashflow projections have become a lot closer they are potentially multiplied by the shortcomings in Australian rail and port infrastructure over the next few years that are contributing towards the product price escalation.

The anticipated official increase in coking coal price might be just enough to encourage Wespac to come to the party earlier and let NZO off of the hook. Still NZO might be disappointed, another $25M worth of PRC shares for helping PRC out with finance that the bank won't provide is beginning to look very attractive.

[bermuda]

Mx
I was hoping that that was the sort of thing that the extra cash allocated enables them to achieve. Not just an overrun in cost doing the same old - but an increase in scope by the purchaser, and payment of bonus, and payment for difficult rock conditions. McC&D could do nicely out of this one.

Time until cash inflows has an easily calculable equivalent in money now. Just as the project cashflow projections have become a lot closer they are potentially multiplied by the shortcomings in Australian rail and port infrastructure over the next few years that are contributing towards the product price escalation.

The anticipated official increase in coking coal price might be just enough to encourage Wespac to come to the party earlier and let NZO off of the hook. Still NZO might be disappointed, another $25M worth of PRC shares for helping PRC out with finance that the bank won't provide is beginning to look very attractive.

Right with you,
Just reading today in the Aussie Fin Review (Not that I read it but my Sister in Law brought it over) that Newcastle are embarking on A MAJOR revamp because the existing facilities are ruining the Aussie Iron Ore co's credibility . As you say this will increasing play into Pike's favour.
I was worried a tiny bit about how this huge major revamp might impact on Pike but then I realised that its 4 years from completion and in Year 3 Pike will be ripe for selling.

[Scuffer]

Solid energy are having trouble with supply(coal appears to be thin on the ground, Lyttelton down 77% on volume over the wharf) to Lyttelton could be some scope for Pike to manouver on the transport front?

[Bilo]

The Lyttleton route must always be ready to fit in just one more shipload of coal. 60,000 tonnes, $6M not over the top but useful cash flow for PRC. It is just the 1M tonnes p.a. that was too much. Solid Energy could be expected to be accommodating as it may turn our that the boot is on the other foot and they will want to use the Greymouth/New Plymouth route.

Sound disaster planning.

[digger]

Solid energy are having trouble with supply(coal appears to be thin on the ground, Lyttelton down 77% on volume over the wharf) to Lyttelton could be some scope for Pike to manouver on the transport front?

Very interesting as I have always wondered why the Lyttelton route has never been completely ruled out.Noted Unicorn has often gone on about the transport route not being finalised,then he jumps to the conclusion that that is bad.It could well be some hope that because it is not completed a certain amount could end up being railed at much less cost.Time an opportunity can often play into the hands of the presistant.

[bermuda]

Digger,
As you know PRC has explored the rail route and both parties wanted different things.

NZO wanted a secure long term high volume contract and couldnt get it...and Solid Energy didnt have the spare capacity. End of story.

In the meantime if PRC want some short term tonnage railed then I am sure the parties will work something out. I mean why not? It is in both parties interests.

The New Plymouth decision was a Supply Security Masterstroke.

Radford and Ward got it all figured out a long time ago.

[Scuffer]

The main problem for the port of ChCh is storage space, Pike would have to get it there quickly to load onto a panamax, as the port is tied into a deal with Solid energy that they would love to get out of but that deal requires that the port store coal, this deal was a major faux pas for the port and a major coup for solid energy.There is no way Solid energy will ship their coal using Pikes method as they have it sweet with Lyttelton and they are tied into the said agreement for ten years or more.Lyttelton could load coal from train directly to ship without using storage but Pike would have to keep trains coming in or the ship would have to wait for the trains, the train is limited to thirty wagons.This could upset Solid energy but who knows maybe the three of them could get together and work it out for the good of NZ but that would be a stupid idea wouldn't it.

[manxman]

Solid energy are having trouble with supply(coal appears to be thin on the ground, Lyttelton down 77% on volume over the wharf) to Lyttelton could be some scope for Pike to manouver on the transport front?

At the AGM Gordon Ward seemed quite relaxed about being able to share Solid Energy's shipment arrangements in the short term.

What's with Solid Energy and the coal shortfall? Are they in a redevelopment phase, and if so, how long will it last? Could be some very interesting possibilities.

Mx

[Scuffer]

Unsure what is going on but do know that the port still get paid so it is in solid energy's best interests to keep the coal flowing.

[manxman]

Sounds as though Gordon has them by the short and curlies. Their hearts and minds must follow.

Mx

[the machine]

per pike website there is no tunnellingthis week as redoing the last 400m of the road base.
maybe they are through the patch of softer rock.

M

[dsurf]

Is someone building a stake? The buyers do seem to be in a hurry to accumulate a stake in what is a falling market?

[Billy Boy]

Is someone building a stake? The buyers do seem to be in a hurry to accumulate a stake in what is a falling market?

Yes .......
I dont think the good coal market is gonna fall that far.
PRC is a two - three year out stock. And of course a divvy hold. I thought/guessed we would not see $1.05 - $1.10 SP untill we reached the coal face. I am now guessing $1.15 - $1.20 @ first coal. If SP goes below $1.00 (Hope it does) I'LL be back in again.
There is not a lot of good buy's to go for at the moment.
Maybe VCT, DFH, NPX, GPG, else bugger all
BB

[the machine]

go pike - up 4c on decent volume with decent average volume/trade

M

[bermuda]

go pike - up 4c on decent volume with decent average volume/trade

M

Cant be far off finalising next years coking coal price. At $US125 /ton that's a lot of unbudgetted additional revenue.

[Dr_Who]

It has broken through the resistance of $1. It is all up hills from here. :)

[Billy Boy]

It has broken through the resistance of $1. It is all up hills from here. :)

BUGGER
BB

[Rabbi]

Yes, looks like an Institution might be topping up as the volume has jumped considerably.

All looking good as long as the tunnel stays on track and no other unforseen delays...

This company should be a cash cow by next Christmas!

[the machine]

after wednesdays big buy up by whoever it was, it looks like they deserted the market today - maybe hoping price would drop - or at least bring more sellers into the market so they can top up again at anotherwise lower price.
imagine if whoever bought up big on wednesday was still in the market buying more.
[how about if they sold a few today to keep the lid on the price as well]

am hoping for another 5c gain by end of nov

M

[digger]

after wednesdays big buy up by whoever it was, it looks like they deserted the market today - maybe hoping price would drop - or at least bring more sellers into the market so they can top up again at anotherwise lower price.
imagine if whoever bought up big on wednesday was still in the market buying more.
[how about if they sold a few today to keep the lid on the price as well]

am hoping for another 5c gain by end of nov

M

Before the 1987 sharemarket crash companies used to just take over other companies like they was no tomorrow,or no day when you had to sit back and count the dollars spent as comparied to achievement level. Shortly after that time someone did their PHD on takeovers and found that the creeping takeover was far more efficient per dollar invested for the company building a stake. So yes the best proven path to take a stake is 3 steps forward one back. The reselling of a small portion of your holding if you are the only stake builder does flush out further sellers.
Interesting that PIKE is going up so well when as yet some distance before coal face.This thing could be reasonably be 1-50 by first coal export say May 08.

[manxman]

Interesting that PIKE is going up so well when as yet some distance before coal face.This thing could be reasonably be 1-50 by first coal export say May 08.

With our Indian friends holding such significant stakes, a takeover looks unlikely. But it certainly looks as though someone is building a stake, and $1.50 seems a reasonable target price if there are no serious problems.

First coal export will be interesting. The prospectus (p29) has 243,000 tonnes of saleable coal production targeted for the 2008 calendar year. Given a shipment size of 65,000 tonnes, and the need to stock the transport chain, the first shipment probably won't take place until 100,000 tonnes have left the coal face. It may well be August before the first full size shipment.

I also re-read clause 3.6.3 which indicates that PRC will develop the pit bottom area in parallel with McC-D pushing the tunnel through to first coal, so all the shiny new gear we saw at the AGM may be in action before Christmas. Exciting times.

Showing off the new gear was a good move in other respects. There are a few experienced guys from Solid Energy and elsewhere who would like to jump over to Pike when the time comes, just to get the better gear and working conditions. Staffing may not be the problem that McDunk forsees.

Time to top up before the gravy train has completely left the station.

Mx

[Xerof]

With our Indian friends holding such significant stakes

Fairly apparent where any potential t/o interest might emanate from, IMO

[bermuda]

Fairly apparent where any potential t/o interest might emanate from, IMO

Exactly Xerof,
The Indians have been buying up/into Aussie coalers for the last few years.They would love to get hold of Pike but hopefully the present 2 will sit it out and then exit in year 3 when everything will be at its peak giving them and NZO a maximum return.

[Bilo]

Manxman "I also re-read clause 3.6.3 which indicates that PRC will develop the pit bottom area in parallel with McC-D pushing the tunnel through to first coal, so all the shiny new gear we saw at the AGM may be in action before Christmas. Exciting times."

They did do a brilliant job of the Prospectus didn't they.:D

[manxman]

after wednesdays big buy up by whoever it was, it looks like they deserted the market today - maybe hoping price would drop - or at least bring more sellers into the market so they can top up again at anotherwise lower price.
imagine if whoever bought up big on wednesday was still in the market buying more.
[how about if they sold a few today to keep the lid on the price as well]

am hoping for another 5c gain by end of nov

M

Another big day for volume and price. Do we get another cooling off period for the rest of the week? Good call Machine. Theres bears in that there wood.

Mx

[BWR]

Pike River Coal Limited has today announced it will transport it’s premium hard coking coal by rail to Lyttelton, Christchurch for export under a new agreement signed with Solid Energy NZ Limited (Solid Energy).

The 18 year agreement to use rail, supersedes previous transport arrangements with West Coast Coal Company Limited (WCCC) which were based on coastal shipping of Pike River coal from the port at Greymouth to Port Taranaki for export.

Pike River Chief Executive Gordon Ward says “The main factors leading to the change in transport mode were a significant recent increase in rail capacity that has allowed Solid Energy and Toll Rail to transport all of Pike River’s coal by rail and the fact that the financing conditions in the transport agreement were not met.”

Following ONTRACK’s upgrade of the rail route and implementation of improved traction control on trains, Solid Energy and Toll Rail are able to introduce 45 wagon trains boosting the capacity and efficiency of the Midland line. Since the Government took back ownership of the rail network in July 2004, investing $25 million in the Midland line through ONTRACK, Solid Energy has committed more than $100 million to the line through its long term contract with Toll Rail and then spent a further $15 million on the new Cobden rail bridge over the Grey River.

The total cost to transport Pike River coal from the coal preparation plant to the point loaded on panamax vessels at Port Lyttelton under the new agreement with Solid Energy is approximately NZ$39 per tonne. Mr Ward said “This cost is at a level at least 10% less than WCCC were able to offer and slightly below the level forecast in the IPO prospectus.”

Port Taranaki Chief Executive Roy Weaver says “We worked extremely hard at WCCC to establish an innovative coastal shipping alternative transport solution for West Coast exporters with Pike River Coal providing the base load. We are very disappointed in not being able to build the transport chain for this project, but were unable to constrain construction cost increases since 2005 to match the rates offered on the newly renovated Midland Line. WCCC wishes Toll Rail, Solid Energy, Port of Lyttelton and Pike River Coal Limited all the best for a successful venture.”

Pike River has agreed with Solid Energy that it will have capacity reserved of up to 1.3 million tonnes per year on the rail network and has priority access to rail and port facilities to transport that tonnage.

Mr Ward said “One benefit of this decision will be the shorter distance Pike River coal travels by road and the consequent reduction in emissions and on traffic through the Greymouth township. Delivery by Solid Energy and Toll Rail of a proven annual capacity of more than 4 million tonnes has given us the confidence to move forward with Solid Energy’s transport supply proposal”.

[trackers]

hmmmm

Pike River Coal Limited (http://www.nzx.com/market/market_announcements/by_company?id=157422)04:42PM - Pike River Coal Announces New Coal Transport Route


edit: Beaten! (unfair advantage imo) :)

edit2: Better option, 10% cheaper

[biker]

I imagine there will be write-downs associated with that decision but it's probably a good one in the long term.

[upside_umop]

thats one major hurdle out of the way. nice.

[Unicorn]

hmmmm

Pike River Coal Limited (http://www.nzx.com/market/market_announcements/by_company?id=157422)04:42PM - Pike River Coal Announces New Coal Transport Route


edit: Beaten! (unfair advantage imo) :)

edit2: Better option, 10% cheaper

Actually just 2.5% cheaper than forecast.

I am not surprised that the WCCC fell over - such a complicated setup and so many failures to get funding. Excellent news that an alternative, and probably a less risky one at that, has been found without a budget blowout.

Up 6c on ASX - although it had risen 5c pre-announcement!

[manxman]

So Transrail/Ontrack have done heroes work getting the extra capacity on the midland line. PRC presumably have stuck Lyttelton with providing wharfside stockpiling a la Solid Energy contract. Where is the coal loading point? Ikamatua is maybe 10k closer to Logburn Road than the Stillwater load point, and along a much better road. Stillwater coal loading is just a single front end loader which takes 5 min per wagon, so there will need to be a serious new loading facility anyway.

Now that McDunk's problems about multiple handling are sorted, we can look forward to him sticking his caber back in. Neat thing about Pike is that they will handle the coal so little between the coal face and the CPP.

Gordon Ward reckons on saving 10% of $39 per tonne. So that's about $4 per tonne straight to the bottom line (less a few minor Write-offs)

All good news (even the mcDunk bit)

Mx

[temuk]

Gordon Ward did touch on this at the AGM saying this was a posibility
of getting the first years coal shipped with the increase of wagons.

Now they don't have to worry about how there are going to turn the ship around in Greymouth!!

[digger]

Great news. So that is way we have heard so little about the transport route. Unicorn often went on about nothing being said about arrangement being made.It seems behind the sciens a lot was going on,and as the govt is involved it would take some time and a lot of arrangeing.
Well done Pike very positive news that will save the company heaps and lift the company overseas profile.
Just as a small detail,we had two purpuse built ships being made in Singapore that recently had delays in construction that we seemed strangely not too worried about.It seems this railing to Littleton has been awhile in the making. What now happens to these two boats that were going to transport coal from Greymouth to Port Taranaki??

[Mr Tommy]

Just as a small detail,we had two purpuse built ships being made in Singapore that recently had delays in construction that we seemed strangely not too worried about.It seems this railing to Littleton has been awhile in the making. What now happens to these two boats that were going to transport coal from Greymouth to Port Taranaki??


I think they were going to be made in China, but I dont think the official go-ahead has been given yet.
From the last Pike report "commencement of ship and port construction is pending of WCCCs financing arrangements"

I think the rail news is excellent. No more worries about getting Greymouth and Taranaki ports sorted, and a new shipping system going.
The existing rail route to Lyttleton is well established and proven, as long as they do some maintenance on the tracks !

[Scuffer]

I predicted this six months ago and tried to tell you guys on this thread and was told I was an idiot and should read the prospectus, so when are the 12,000 ton capacity ships arriving ha ha! it was obvious that method was a bargaining point to get the rail route, I predicted Lyttelton, right again, now where are all the numpties who gave me grief for pointing out what to me was as clear as day.Now i've had my gloat good luck to all still in PRC.

[upside_umop]

Why dont you quote yourself then scuffer.

Hasnt Greymouth already started an upgrade on their port? What will happen to this? How will this affect PRC?

[Scuffer]

Greymouth will need to buy a dredge to ship coal out and it will need to be a good one.It was always gonna be Lytteltons its already set up with space to ship more, has I said previously their only problem is coal storage already tied to solid energy, but that won't be a problem will it.

[Scuffer]

Too right Buddy, watch them start and move the black stuff through Lyttelton, at the start its the only viable option they might have to do a deal with solid energy and organise the trains but its common sense then they can start to see money coming in and they are a producer with the ball rolling.

Read and weep.

[upside_umop]

Too right Buddy, watch them start and move the black stuff through Lyttelton, at the start its the only viable option they might have to do a deal with solid energy and organise the trains but its common sense then they can start to see money coming in and they are a producer with the ball rolling.

Wasnt that post only 1 month ago?


I predicted this six months

What does this mean then?

Sorry, dont want to burst your ego, but im pretty sure you only started piping up your voice on this one when Gordon Ward touched the subject saying it was a possiblity.


But by all means, im happy about this. Better than the boats...double handling etc etc...so is marginally cheaper, and more reliable imo.

[the machine]

imo prc will be in the nzx top 50 index in 2008, possibly as soon as July.

Valued at $200m with upward trend.

By June 2008 the sp should be well over nz$1.25

M

[upside_umop]

still good time to buy. just not as good as two weeks ago...or even one week ago :P

$1.15-1.20 before xmas imo

Agree machine, and I'll still hold this prediction from mid october..

[Scuffer]

Wasnt that post only 1 month ago?



What does this mean then?

Sorry, dont want to burst your ego, but im pretty sure you only started piping up your voice on this one when Gordon Ward touched the subject saying it was a possiblity.


But by all means, im happy about this. Better than the boats...double handling etc etc...so is marginally cheaper, and more reliable imo.

It means I was right,correct my time frame was wrong but my buy in was right on the button how about yours and my ego cannot be burst I haven't got one, don't know Mr. Ward or anything he has said I was just voicing what I knew was going to happen, my delight in this one is the coal will be heading out and $ coming in.Good luck hope your making a lot of money like the rest of us.

[manxman]

It means I was right.

Yep. Scuffer was right. He had been pushing the Lyttelton barrow for a lot longer than a month. Now all that has to be sorted is how the devil Lyttelton is going to stockpile at least two extra main grades of coal. Tranzrail actually have a couple of years to get all their traction control gear working. I presume that some passing bays on the line will have to be extended further, and that the TranzAlpine will be under pressure to yield up its line space to a couple of extra coalies.

Also I have the feeling that this coal route cuts down on working capital requirements in that there will be 10-20,000 tonnes less coal stockpiled in the transport chain. That means an earlier first shipment.

Mx

[bermuda]

Scuffer,
I too am pleased that Lyttelton is now the preferred route. Initial production was always going to be railed there until the New Plymouth infrastructure was completed.

The only thing I recall from you about the New Plymouth route was your claim that the chosen vessels wouldnt be able to shift that sort of tonnage in the time available.

However as some intelligent poster replied if you had read the prospectus and done the math then you would have found that a round trip of 8.6 days was totally feasible.

Anyway this latest news removes a few more doubters.

[Nitaa]

well done to the ones who had faith in pike. things are looking up. after some constant bagging by a select few this stock is quickly firming its position and holders look set to be rewarded

[Scuffer]

Yep. Scuffer was right. He had been pushing the Lyttelton barrow for a lot longer than a month. Now all that has to be sorted is how the devil Lyttelton is going to stockpile at least two extra main grades of coal. Tranzrail actually have a couple of years to get all their traction control gear working. I presume that some passing bays on the line will have to be extended further, and that the TranzAlpine will be under pressure to yield up its line space to a couple of extra coalies.

Also I have the feeling that this coal route cuts down on working capital requirements in that there will be 10-20,000 tonnes less coal stockpiled in the transport chain. That means an earlier first shipment.

Mx

Thanks Manxman I know a few guys hated me on this thread but I was only giving opinions and was never meaning to be derrogatory to anyone, but a few turned on me I am happy with PRC now and they go into a future lookinig all the more rosy. I also agree that the stockpiling at Lyttelton is now the next problem but that is the ports problem along with keeping the black stuff moving across the wharf, I would imagine they are happy to say the least as the equipment is just sat there while there isn't a coal ship in so the more it is working the more they will make they just have to keep it running, which is a job in itself.The only other problem is industrial action at the port they have been tied up for three years, they are now coming of this last agreement and wages are the contentious issue with tradesmen leaving for Australia everywhere, it is difficult to keep staff and even harder to find good replacements they just are not there anymore. The big question is in early 2008 what is going to happen, industrial action would not be good lets hope it all goes well.
All up its good for the south island and inevitably NZ. Well done all investors and managements.

[Zaphod]

Not so good for Greymouth or the S.Isle West Coast in general though, as those ships were also destined to carry freight to New Plymouth and Onehunga.

New Plymouth is also destined to receive a daily express freight service to Melbourne (in addition to the current Asia, N.America etc) which would have opened up even more opportunities for the S.Isle in general. Plus at 12.5M depth, and with 300m berths, they can take some of the largest ships available.

As for the $18M to be spent on Greymouth's port, I doubt this will be going ahead. The money was to be spent by Port Taranaki themselves - can't see why they'd do that now.

Never mind! Onwards and upwards! Should help the bottom line of the venture. :)

[the machine]

Before the 1987 sharemarket crash companies used to just take over other companies like they was no tomorrow,or no day when you had to sit back and count the dollars spent as comparied to achievement level. Shortly after that time someone did their PHD on takeovers and found that the creeping takeover was far more efficient per dollar invested for the company building a stake. So yes the best proven path to take a stake is 3 steps forward one back. The reselling of a small portion of your holding if you are the only stake builder does flush out further sellers.
Interesting that PIKE is going up so well when as yet some distance before coal face.This thing could be reasonably be 1-50 by first coal export say May 08.

looks like it has just played out with a spike in volume after the sp came off last week.

waiting for the next 2 steps forward, then bracing for the one step back to flush out more sellers.

M

[Zaphod]

Challenge looms for Pike River

"A Taranaki-led consortium is poised to sue the Pike River Coal Company over its decision to abandon a scheme to export South Island coal through Port Taranaki."

"The affected consortium, called the West Coast Coal Company, comprises Port Taranaki Ltd, New Plymouth-based shipping management company Wendell Group, Nelson-based road transport company TNL Group, and Norwegian bulk shipping specialist Jebsens International."

http://www.stuff.co.nz/dailynews/4293672a6002.html

Looks like the ship building had already begun!

[zac]

'Poised to sue' sounds like a media beat up that sensationalizes the anguish of a jilted partner. Methinks that WCCC, thinking that they had the contract, expected to squeeze more juice out of the orange by pricing the service on a cost plus basis. Fortunately PRCC had an alternative proposal and a contract that allowed an escape if financial targets were not met.

[dsurf]

It will get settled with some cost to PRC but the savings on the new route will more than compensate.

[BigBob]

'Poised to sue' sounds like a media beat up that sensationalizes the anguish of a jilted partner. Methinks that WCCC, thinking that they had the contract, expected to squeeze more juice out of the orange by pricing the service on a cost plus basis. Fortunately PRCC had an alternative proposal and a contract that allowed an escape if financial targets were not met.

Totally agree..!!!

[upside_umop]

It really depends what was in the terms of the contract - exemption clauses etc. From doing a little bit of contract this year at uni, I dont think it would be over just yet...

Will just have to see how it plays out really. None of us have that contract to read.

[sideline]

'Poised to sue' sounds like a media beat up that sensationalizes the anguish of a jilted partner. Methinks that WCCC, thinking that they had the contract, expected to squeeze more juice out of the orange by pricing the service on a cost plus basis. Fortunately PRCC had an alternative proposal and a contract that allowed an escape if financial targets were not met.

Agree totally too. Just checked the prospectus: Contract was conditional on completion of financing by both
Port Taranaki and Jebsens - last extension of this expired on 15 November. Last quarterly stated that ship
and port construction would be starting after completion of WCCC's financing
arrangements had been secured.
Prospectus does say however that the engines for the ships had been secured - so there
may be a cost in flogging those off.

[Wiremu]

Or a profit.

[duncan macgregor]

It looks like excellant news for PRC shareholders the double handling shipping route was always going to be a bummer. The only concern i have is the way they have gone about it. Its bad business to have people spend a lot of time and money running after you then suddenly dump them. The goodwill is now gone, other companies with an interest in the future will know that this is an unethical ratbag company, and deal with it accoerdingly. It happens in the buiding game from time to time you do a lot of work time and effort into a project only to be told we have changed our mind we are not going to do it now. I would imagine hundreds of thousands of dollars has been lost by numerous companies setting themselves up for exporting this coal. I only hope that LPC or the rail people dont do a similar double cross on PRC. Business is business but there is a right and a wrong way to go about it this is not a good look the NZO influence of complete contempt for all and sundry. I think the sp will rise accordingly but i wont back them. Macdunk

[Wiremu]

McDunk

So now is you big chance to tell us how you would have done it instead.

It is very easy to criticise (as we all know from your postings), but having made your criticism now tell us how you would have done it better.

[dsurf]

It looks like excellant news for PRC shareholders the double handling shipping route was always going to be a bummer. The only concern i have is the way they have gone about it. Its bad business to have people spend a lot of time and money running after you then suddenly dump them. The goodwill is now gone, other companies with an interest in the future will know that this is an unethical ratbag company, and deal with it accoerdingly. It happens in the buiding game from time to time you do a lot of work time and effort into a project only to be told we have changed our mind we are not going to do it now. I would imagine hundreds of thousands of dollars has been lost by numerous companies setting themselves up for exporting this coal. I only hope that LPC or the rail people dont do a similar double cross on PRC. Business is business but there is a right and a wrong way to go about it this is not a good look the NZO influence of complete contempt for all and sundry. I think the sp will rise accordingly but i wont back them. Macdunk

Well done mac D acknowledging that it is excellent news. The consortium would have made a lot of money if thier tender was successful. It wasn't because the Ausi's made sure they could do it cheaper. That is commercial life - Well done PRC - I want the shareholders to get the $4 per tonne in dividends

[zac]

Jeez McD where do you dredge up all this bile you are determined to pour over NZO and PRCC. If a building Company cannot deliver on time at an agreed price then it deservedly gets the boot; same with WCCC. Save your sympathy for shareholders who get ripped off by Directors that cannot make the hard decisions.

[duncan macgregor]

Jeez McD where do you dredge up all this bile you are determined to pour over NZO and PRCC. If a building Company cannot deliver on time at an agreed price then it deservedly gets the boot; same with WCCC. Save your sympathy for shareholders who get ripped off by Directors that cannot make the hard decisions. ZAC If a building company is told that they will get the job and spend time and money ordering material making plans to a given time frame then suddenly told we are not doing it that way anymore why wouldnt they not feel agreived. I dont know the detail only making an observation. What goes round comes around. Lets presume the railway contract is not fully signed up how would PRC feel if they suddenly backed off?. NZO treats its shareholders in that way PRC is treating its business in a very unethical way before they even start. Like a crazy woman looking for a new hat. Like i said i dont know the facts but have grave reservations on the ethics. In my building business i could have screwed all sorts of people along the way never did resisted the temptation avoided all companies and individuals that were shady never regretited it ever. Macdunk

[upside_umop]

On another note...

PRC looks to finally get past its record it achieved on IPO.

[Wiremu]

Macdunk

As you yourself very clearly state you don't know the facts.

The big question is what about the ethics of someone who doesn't know the facts, doesn't know the detail, but feels free to go on and on about anothers ethics, unethical behavour, ratbag of a company, and screwing people. I think that's slander, and would be serious except you have turned yourself into a joke.

[Parky]

ZAC If a building company is told that they will get the job and spend time and money ordering material making plans to a given time frame then suddenly told we are not doing it that way anymore why wouldnt they not feel agreived. I dont know the detail only making an observation. What goes round comes around. Lets presume the railway contract is not fully signed up how would PRC feel if they suddenly backed off?. NZO treats its shareholders in that way PRC is treating its business in a very unethical way before they even start. Like a crazy woman looking for a new hat. Like i said i dont know the facts but have grave reservations on the ethics. In my building business i could have screwed all sorts of people along the way never did resisted the temptation avoided all companies and individuals that were shady never regretited it ever. Macdunk

I dont see this being unethical, at the end of the day its benefiting the shareholders then in my view the managements decision in this case is the correct and ethical decision; Unless this brings legal proceedings into play...

[dsurf]

NZO closes at $1.08 PRC at $1.09 - seems instos / kiwisaver / ausis etc etc love PRC a lot more than NZO - something to do with gauranteed 18 year earnings or is it that the p/e at this price come 2009 will be around 2?

[tim23]

Like you say Duncan business is business from your post yesterday - gee I can't figure out which company you hate better. You state that PRC will do well, why don't you invest in it if you think its a good bet, put up or shut up!

[Zaphod]

While we are not privy to all the details contained in the contract, it does raise some red flags not only for me, but potentially other companies that PRC will sign contracts with. That is the major problem.

As for this elimination of double handing, what do you call loading the coal onto a train, stock piling it at the port facilities, then loading it on to a ship?

[digger]

While we are not privy to all the details contained in the contract, it does raise some red flags not only for me, but potentially other companies that PRC will sign contracts with. That is the major problem.

As for this elimination of double handing, what do you call loading the coal onto a train, stock piling it at the port facilities, then loading it on to a ship?

Zaphod for god's sake have you ever heard of a coal company that loads straight on to a big ocean going cargo ship.There will have to be some stock pilling somewhere. Pike now is about as simple as it will get. Maybe in earlier times the easy coal was better located but with all resorces the easy stuff is all gone.
This railing to Littleton sure is a big plus.

[Unicorn]

While we are not privy to all the details contained in the contract, it does raise some red flags not only for me, but potentially other companies that PRC will sign contracts with. That is the major problem.

The arrangement to ship coal from a disused shallow port through another port that needed upgrades was always going to be a problem. The capital cost was half that of the mine itself, which indicates the scale of the work required.

PRC was already on the second iteration of the contract, and even so costs had escalated significantly since the IPO. The WCCC had not met a number of deadlines to arrange the finance - something that had been due back in June. It had reached the point where volume shipments of coal appeared to be likely to be seriously delayed due to the late delivery of the coastal vessels.

PRC was not left with a lot of options - that they managed to come up with an alternative, at a very competitive rate, is a tremendous result for the company. There will obviously be some upset parties, but the root cause of the loss of the contract was their own inability to deliver - even after being granted a number of extensions. It was not a simple case of PRC seeking any opportunity for an out.

[tim23]

They got a better deal - in shareholders interests I'm happy, will be holding until production and beyond

[zorba]

.
UBS AG report:

"Coking coal used to make steel will average $145 a metric ton next year, compared with $130 predicted on Oct. 8, the bank said in a report yesterday. The 2009 forecast was increased to $135 from $115. Thermal coal will average $90 a ton next year and $105 in 2009, up from previous forecasts of $70 and $75."
.

[Scuffer]

Zaphod for god's sake have you ever heard of a coal company that loads straight on to a big ocean going cargo ship.There will have to be some stock pilling somewhere. Pike now is about as simple as it will get. Maybe in earlier times the easy coal was better located but with all resorces the easy stuff is all gone.
This railing to Littleton sure is a big plus.

It is possible to load coal from train to ship without a stock pile at lyttelton the problem is 30 wagons is your limit doesn't quite equate to a full bulker before you need a lot more trains pulling a lot more wagons.

[zorba]

Macdunk

As you yourself very clearly state you don't know the facts.

The big question is what about the ethics of someone who doesn't know the facts, doesn't know the detail, but feels free to go on and on about anothers ethics, unethical behavour, ratbag of a company, and screwing people. I think that's slander, and would be serious except you have turned yourself into a joke.


Totally agree with you Wiremu ......

I also think its slander ...... These slanderous outpourings should be notified to the Moderator !!
.

[upside_umop]

I think MD was talking about loading it to trucks, trucks to port, port to ships, ships to new port, new port to new ships...

now it is, loading to trucks, trucks to rail, rail to port, port to ships...

so instead of handling it at two ports, its at one port, thus the double handling reduced..

[upside_umop]

ok that last post was coming back from a while back.

bringing forward a bit.
as much as he 'slanders' these forums, he is mostly right.

look how the sp has reacted when it was announced the change of transport...
annual savings of over 4 million, straight to the bottom line.
the amount of risk reduced is substantial.

cheers md

[whirly]

As a resident of Greymouth I feel we got shafted but maybe learnt a valuable lesson along the way. We are all at the mercy of business ethics in some way and its getting pretty tough to find good faith bargaining.

I would love to support PRC but really cant reconcile the way its been handled right from consulting the ratepayers of Greymouth to my desire to have a piece of a large profit from my local industry.

Locals have remained nervous that big companies trying to make profit for shareholders are going to come and fleece our expansive resources and then disappear to whence they came.

Greymouth is ready to join the bigger provinces as a player at many levels. Property growth has consistently performed above the national average for a few years now. Town is looking tidy with many new big stores and refurbishments. Dairying is booming (but needs to address environmental isssues), hospitals, polytech, Westland Milk factory, roading, forestry, rail, tourism all looking good. The West Coast remains a slice of paradise.

We could have done with that belly port though. Damn!

One day there'll be half million dollar apartments on that real estate. mark my words and pm me if you want me to help you spend your money.;)

[duncan macgregor]

WHIRLY, BUSINESS is business there is a nice way to do business and a nasty way. The residents in my home country thought that north sea oil would enrich the country with massive opportunity and wealth. All that happened was they come from all over, raped the place, wrecked the life style, and left nothing but crime corruption and havock in what was once a beautifull place. I understand the ethics is done in the small print, its like your house burns down, and you find out that you are not really insured. No doubt PRC have covered their rear end, the shareholders will be happy up to the time its their turn. I could never understand the logic of barging the coal to a second port i wonder if that was only part of a game they played with rail to get a better deal. Macdunk

[dsurf]

.
UBS AG report:

"Coking coal used to make steel will average $145 a metric ton next year, compared with $130 predicted on Oct. 8, the bank said in a report yesterday. The 2009 forecast was increased to $135 from $115. Thermal coal will average $90 a ton next year and $105 in 2009, up from previous forecasts of $70 and $75."
.

This is far more significant than questioning MacD's comments / motives / accuracy (he is right more often than not - b*ggr).

Zorba - can you post a link please

[zorba]

.
Dsurf, here is the link:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aRv3M8whBrgw

[dsurf]

cheers zorba

[Billy Boy]

WHIRLY, BUSINESS is business there is a nice way to do business and a nasty way. The residents in my home country thought that north sea oil would enrich the country with massive opportunity and wealth. All that happened was they come from all over, raped the place, wrecked the life style, and left nothing but crime corruption and havock in what was once a beautifull place. I understand the ethics is done in the small print, its like your house burns down, and you find out that you are not really insured. No doubt PRC have covered their rear end, the shareholders will be happy up to the time its their turn. I could never understand the logic of barging the coal to a second port i wonder if that was only part of a game they played with rail to get a better deal. Macdunk

Good post McDunk. Spot on.
BB