PRC Pike River Coal

[duncan macgregor]

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/category/story.cfm?c_id=37&objectid=10488897

Well the price of hard coking coal looks like it is set to go the right way. Thats all very nice ROSS but have you considered the likely hood of that pommy bastard union at LPC holding you to ransome. You should balance all the good aspects with all the bad before you come to a conclusion. How much money down the drain with the cancelation of the barges, plus goodwill lost. I wasnt to impressed with the cost of getting the power to the site when it would have been miles cheaper to generate their own.
They are now in the hands of the warfies union which looking back is none to brilliant. Still the price of coal should rise but keep that finger close to the sell button. Macdunk

[Scuffer]

Yup Wharfies, militant lot at the best of times, but to be honest they might roll over and get their tummies tickled they are no skilled men around and the port know this, they are not so stupid as to rile up an already militant union when they know that all they will do is make people retire early or vote with their feet, finding good staff is hard enough, retaining them in a drought is even harder when the aussies not to mention every other company in the country is trying to steal your wealth of experience, even contractors are screaming that they are losing all their good men and are having to turn down work and sitting back and hoping that the government will sort it with a downturn in the economy is like burying your head in the sand and hoping the problem will go away. We in NZ will be dragged along in the wake of an Aussie boom which has no signs of abating, the demand for mineral resources is here for 25 years plus and anyone who thinks otherwise is a fool, Costello said that the shift of power from the oil wealth of the middle east is on its way to Australia what more can one say the proof is in the pudding and dessert appears to be in Western Australia. So therefore Lyttelton port Co. will probably give ya militant mob a decent pay rise they will be no trouble and they will hammer them in the future its pure economics, the boots are firmly on the feet of skilled labour in NZ whether they are bright enough to kick the employers **** or walk of into an Aussie sunset who knows we will have to wait and see, personally I love NZ its my country and I would prefer to see Kiwis in NZ.

[Phar King]

I bailed out of NOG when I was informed they were going to charge me the same as Joe Bloggs on the street for Pike----it was our money that got the mine to that stage! Was gonna bail anyway as I thought the plan to barge the coal was a Monty Python episode. I put my money into PNA at 22c.................

[zorba]

.
Termal coal prices looking hot ..... must therefore also be hot for coking coal prices !!!!

"Coal for delivery to Amsterdam, Rotterdam or Antwerp with settlement next year rose $6, or 5.7 percent, to $112.25 a metric ton as of 5:20 p.m. in London, according to ICAP Plc prices. It was the biggest gain since Jan. 7."

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20602099&sid=a9sqKFOaukYk&refer=energy

[bermuda]

.
Termal coal prices looking hot ..... must therefore also be hot for coking coal prices !!!!

"Coal for delivery to Amsterdam, Rotterdam or Antwerp with settlement next year rose $6, or 5.7 percent, to $112.25 a metric ton as of 5:20 p.m. in London, according to ICAP Plc prices. It was the biggest gain since Jan. 7."

http://www.bloomberg.comps/news?pid=20602099&sid=a9sqKFOaukYk&refer=energy

As I said earlier my forecast is $US148 per tonne.The Aussie Coalers are screaming with huge demurrage claims and are now claiming 'Force Majuerre'.

Newcastle wont be able to deliver the huge demand. Their facilities just cant cope.

Roll on PRC and the secure LPC transport chain.

[bermuda]

After today's announcement from John Dow it seems that $US148 is going to be low. This is music to PRC's ears and bottom line.

[zorba]

.
Bermuda,

I've looked for announcement by John Dow but cannot find it ....

Could you advise whereabouts ?

Cheers

[RossT]

http://www.dnaindia.com/report.asp?newsid=1147842

I'm just trying to find a site I was reading yesterdy that listed buyers and sellers requirements. The first listing - a chinese companies coking coal buy order they wanted filled, listed their offer of us$200 for 60,000 tn, delivery - asap.

[RossT]

Zorba - http://www.stuff.co.nz/4377892a13.html

However I think one paragraph where they talk of prices pulling back sub $100 might be a typo.

[bermuda]

.
Bermuda,

I've looked for announcement by John Dow but cannot find it ....

Could you advise whereabouts ?

Cheers

Big increase coming up eh! When China adds a new city the size of Brisbane every week you need a lot of steel.

Coal supply from the Pacific getting very very tight.

PRC looking very very bright

[Robomo]

.
Bermuda,

I've looked for announcement by John Dow but cannot find it ....

Could you advise whereabouts ?

Cheers

http://www.stuff.co.nz/4377892a13.html

The chairman of Pike River Coal says the miner has been buoyed by tunnel progress on the West Coast and benchmark prices likely to be negotiated for coal.


John Dow said a report on the opening of negotiations between Xstrata Coal, which has eastern Australia mines, and Japanese steel producers was very positive.

Mr Dow said the company's forecasts for this year were based on a price of US$130 (NZ$169) a tonne, but Xstrata Coal's much higher indicative price was amazing.

Brokers, fund managers and market watchers also had higher prices forecast.

"There was a press report last week showing that Xstrata had started their negotiations with the Japanese and they've tabled a price of US$210 a tonne," he said.

Goldman Sachs also had an indicative price for hard coking coal in the future at US$150 a tonne.

Australian firms supplying Japanese steel mills usually set the international price, with other producers including the BHP Billiton-Mitsubishi Alliance, Rio Tinto and Anglo Coal Australia.

"US$210 may not be where it ends up, but the likelihood is that it will be somewhere close to that which will be a good deal more than people have been anticipating," Mr Dow said.

The price was squeezed higher on supply problems resulting from the recent Queensland floods and port-to-ship constraints. At the same time demand out of the booming Asian economies continued.

"The Queensland floods have required a number of coal producers to declare force majeure on shipments to Japanese consumers."

In the long term, prices would pull back from US$210 a tonne, but were likely to settle around US$85 to US$90 a tonne - up from Pike River's US$77 forecast.

Pike River, which hopes to produce coal from its mine north of Greymouth by the end of the year will benefit from the price-round decision, which will remain in place until March 2009.

Pike is forecast to mine 200,000 tonnes of coal this year.

Yesterday afternoon Pike River shares closed flat at 95 cents, down from their 119c post-float high.

The company has completed two kilometres of the tunnel to reach its deposit and is working on pit bottom mine installations including underground workshops and a crusher, before finishing the final push to the coal seam at an estimated 2300-metre total length.

The mine still had to go past a tricky fault area, and Pike River would have to upgrade to flameproof machinery used within the tunnel once it reached the coal face.

Despite a skills shortage, Pike River had hired all 27 senior management staff for the mine and was hiring senior workers, Mr Dow said.

PRC creeps upwards, 3c up today.

[tim23]

Duncan - what was that about problems getting staff?! Unfounded as I suspected on this post a few weeks back.

[Oiler]

Duncan - what was that about problems getting staff?! Unfounded as I suspected on this post a few weeks back.
Tim
I suspect as MD was suggesting that getting skilled "manual labour" will be another problem. Nothing that paying the money cant fix. Office staff/managers is not where the problem is.
Skilled labour including kiwis is in huge demand worldwide. It is a dream come true :D

Oiler

[duncan macgregor]

You are on to it OILER. They all want nice clean office jobs today, that was the easy jobs to fill. Money fixes everything they will have to pay over the top to hire the people that really matter. They have an acute shortage in Australia where the miners can get $3000-00 a week which reverts back to a few tons of coal. Macdunk

[tim23]

Still missing the point I see - some people actually choose to live in NZ where wages are lower in many occupations, not just mining.

[blockhead]

And if you are living in Auckland at the moment the reasonably wild West Coast might be starting to look attractive, even with John Keys promised army training to tidy the world up.

[RossT]

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=a9OKBHe9zVYU

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=a4AdZjPe.6SM

Surely with all the disruption to coking coal supplies and the predicted increase in demand, you'd think PRC would be the ideal target to get snapped up by an asian coke producer once in production. PRC's small size would make it affordably attractive would it not? What is everyone's opinion on the fact that PRC is working on a resouce of 17mt out of a 55mt seam? Is this a conservative recoverable amount and seeing as the price of coking coal looks to rise, does this make it profitable to recover more of the 55 mt than just 17mt? I mean @ us$150/tn for example as opposed to us$96/tn and if they could go from 17mt recovery to 20mt, that really adds some $$. ( Labour and Lpc dependant of course Duncan )

[manxman]

What is everyone's opinion on the fact that PRC is working on a resouce of 17mt out of a 55mt seam? Is this a conservative recoverable amount and seeing as the price of coking coal looks to rise, does this make it profitable to recover more of the 55 mt than just 17mt? I mean @ us$150/tn for example as opposed to us$96/tn and if they could go from 17mt recovery to 20mt, that really adds some $$. ( Labour and Lpc dependant of course Duncan )

There are already fringe areas identified where further extraction might take place, and of course there is a whole further seam below which would offer perhaps 10 mt at a slightly higher price. These have been identified but the rules for the prospectus precluded their inclusion in the reserves until more is known about them. Reasonable men over a beer might opine that there will be 30mt ultimately recovered, but you can't say that in the hearing of the ASX. Look forward to some serious exploratory drilling, in seam and otherwise, once the main coal flow starts.

Management have said that we will only get 50% of the free cash flow as dividends, which means that there will be a tidy sum for further definition of this and other prospects. Just at present though, cash is not abundant, and the lads may be a bit busy. Put me down for an upgrade to 30mt by 2012.

Mx

[Xerof]

Conservative indeed......IMO they will play it gently, gently (it does after all, encroach into a national park), but you can be sure 30% is NOT where the recovery levels will cease.

Time will tell on labour costs, but my understanding is management are quietly confident......people are actually attracted to the WC lifestyle, including mine workers. In fact John Dow seemed positively bouyant judging by last weeks media reports.

All coming together nicely imo - get this rights issue away smoothly, and we're off to the races for 2009 - forget the noise from the worry-beaders

[bermuda]

Conservative indeed......IMO they will play it gently, gently (it does after all, encroach into a national park), but you can be sure 30% is NOT where the recovery levels will cease.

Time will tell on labour costs, but my understanding is management are quietly confident......people are actually attracted to the WC lifestyle, including mine workers. In fact John Dow seemed positively bouyant judging by last weeks media reports.

All coming together nicely imo - get this rights issue away smoothly, and we're off to the races for 2009 - forget the noise from the worry-beaders

I mean you can get 90 day money at 8 point something but I would rather have some here particularly with plus $US 148 a tonne coming up. Plus increasing demand and worldwide supply hiccups.

Well done NZO/PRC

[Hoop]

The PRC website has a spread which you can understand and follow...not like those announcements from NZX...:p



QUARTERLY REPORT OF CONSOLIDATED CASH FLOWS (http://www.pike.co.nz/shareholder-section/stock-exchange-announcements/stock-announcements-2008/31%2001%2008%20PRC%20-%20App%2011%20Quarterly%20Report%20for%2031%20Dec% 202007.pdf)
PIKE RIVER COAL LIMITED (http://www.pike.co.nz/shareholder-section/stock-exchange-announcements/stock-announcements-2008/31%2001%2008%20PRC%20-%20App%2011%20Quarterly%20Report%20for%2031%20Dec% 202007.pdf)
For Quarter ended 31 December 2007 (http://www.pike.co.nz/shareholder-section/stock-exchange-announcements/stock-announcements-2008/31%2001%2008%20PRC%20-%20App%2011%20Quarterly%20Report%20for%2031%20Dec% 202007.pdf)

[Hoop]

Some more stuff from them!! (PDF file)


Activities Report (http://www.pike.co.nz/shareholder-section/stock-exchange-announcements/stock-announcements-2008/31%2001%2008%20PRC%20-%20Activities%20Report%20quarter%20ended%2031%20De c%202007.pdf)
Quarter ended 31 December 2007 (http://www.pike.co.nz/shareholder-section/stock-exchange-announcements/stock-announcements-2008/31%2001%2008%20PRC%20-%20Activities%20Report%20quarter%20ended%2031%20De c%202007.pdf)

[bermuda]

Some more stuff from them!! (PDF file)


Activities Report (http://www.pike.co.nz/shareholder-section/stock-exchange-announcements/stock-announcements-2008/31%2001%2008%20PRC%20-%20Activities%20Report%20quarter%20ended%2031%20De c%202007.pdf)
Quarter ended 31 December 2007 (http://www.pike.co.nz/shareholder-section/stock-exchange-announcements/stock-announcements-2008/31%2001%2008%20PRC%20-%20Activities%20Report%20quarter%20ended%2031%20De c%202007.pdf)


Thanks Hoop. Well worth the read. The price is going to be more like $US148 a tonne.

[RossT]

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=a3f_9xK5jWgY

Indian steel maker buying up coking coal mines to ensure supply.

[zorba]

.
Coking coal pricing for 2008:

"Coking-coal prices have jumped because of supply disruptions including flooding at mines in Australia. Mining companies want benchmark annual prices to be set at $210 a metric ton, compared with $98 last year, Macquarie Bank Ltd. said in a Jan. 28 report".

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=a3f_9xK5jWgY

[Steve]

It's good to see Directors buying more PRC... :)

[bermuda]

It's good to see Directors buying more PRC... :)


It's one of the best BUY signals going.

[Steve]

Trading during the rights issue should provide a good opportunity to top-up my shareholding...

[Bilo]

Miners who reopened pit alleged to have no future say goodbye after 13 years

Steven Morris
Saturday January 26, 2008
The Guardian (http://www.guardian.co.uk/)
For 45 years, the dirty, dangerous coalface of Tower Colliery has been a home from home for miners such as John Woods, and the men he laboured alongside a second family.
Yesterday Woods spent a final few hours 450 metres underground "just tidying a few things up" before he was hauled back to the surface and the only remaining deep coalmine in south Wales officially closed.
"It was strange," said Woods, the last man out of the pit. "I've left so many great memories down there. The comradeship was unbelievable, the work was hard but brilliant. I'll miss it. Tower is a coalmine but it's also been a little goldmine to us and to this area."
At a time when Britain's heavy industry has all but vanished, the story of Tower mine in Hirwaun, near Merthyr Tydfil, has been a triumph. In the mid-1990s British Coal ruled that Tower had no future. The miners, many of whose fathers and grandfathers had worked there, disagreed and organised a workers' buyout, gambling their redundancy payments on their knowledge that there was still plenty of coal.
Even the most optimistic expected a short period of grace, but for 13 years the mine kept more than 200 men in work and a community alive. The Tower story has even been credited with inspiring a new confidence in Wales and encouraging its people to vote for devolution.
Finally, though, the coal has run out and yesterday the Tower miners, together with wives and families, gathered and marched away from the pithead. In a biting wind that howled off the Brecon Beacons, they reached the end of the pit road, turned, and tipped their union banner towards the mine in tribute.
It was a time for memories, good and bad. Maintenance engineer Dennis Davies, who followed his grandfather, father and five brothers underground, said: "I have done 41 years here in this pit. I don't know what I'm going to do on Monday. I've seen many killed here and it ruins your health. But I feel very emotional. It's been my whole life."
About 120 of Tower's 240 men are expected to transfer to nearby smaller mines but others may have to look further afield, and possibly outside the industry, for jobs.
Tower's chairman, Tyrone O'Sullivan, whose father was killed in the pit in 1963, said: "We took on the people who said we couldn't do this and we beat them." He said there were plans to turn the site into a business or a technology park. "We want to create something new that will provide 1,000 jobs here on this mountain. The mine is closed but we are not going away just yet."

[Bilo]

[quote=Bilo;183646]
This sucks sorry, but here is the reference


Miners who reopened pit alleged to have no future say goodbye after 13 years
Steven Morris
Saturday January 26, 2008
The Guardian (http://www.guardian.co.uk/)

For 45 years, the dirty, dangerous coalface of Tower Colliery has been a home from home for miners such as John Woods, and the men he laboured alongside a second family.

[digger]

Export coal prices are known as 'free on board' (FOB), meaning they exclude cost of shipping and insurance and are therefore substantially lower than import prices. The price of FOB coking coal (for steel-making) could rise from about $115 today to $210, says McCloskey. FOB steam coal (used for power stations, cement works etc), which has doubled in the past year, could jump another $30 to $150. That would inevitably put further upward pressure on import prices around the world.

Although the immediate causes of the coal market chaos are above ground - weather, mining and transport capacity - there is a small but growing body of opinion that coal production could reach its geological limits much sooner than commonly expected. See 'The great coal hole' , at lastoilshock.com.


This 210 price is seeming to get built into the general thinking. This is set in March or april so not too long to wait.

[Dr_Who]

Is someone window dressing the sp for a smooth rights issue?

[duncan macgregor]

PRC, has just shown a buy signal at 103c stick a trailing 5% trailing stop on it. Macdunk
DISCL nil holding

[Dr_Who]

McDunk, you really crack me up..lol. When I was buying at 85 cents you rubbish the stock and now you say it is good buying. I may just sell some at these levels.

[AMR]

Do I suck at this or what? I sold at the bottom (95c) when it hit my stop loss.:mad::mad:

[duncan macgregor]

McDunk, you really crack me up..lol. When I was buying at 85 cents you rubbish the stock and now you say it is good buying. I may just sell some at these levels. Look up the thirty day moving average it showed a buy at 86c get with it doc. I never said it was a good buy i only said its a buy to stick a 5% running stop loss on it at 103c. If you want to play the market then pay attention to what the market tells you, forget all the other crap the fundies wallow in. Macdunnk

[digger]

Do I suck at this or what? I sold at the bottom (95c) when it hit my stop loss.:mad::mad:

AMR have you been listening to MD?? Drop the trailing loss rubbish as it is too easily manilipated by the big boys. Go for the fundamentals----the opposite of MD.
Facts will win in the end.

[duncan macgregor]

AMR have you been listening to MD?? Drop the trailing loss rubbish as it is too easily manilipated by the big boys. Go for the fundamentals----the opposite of MD.
Facts will win in the end. DIGGER, What a load of one eyed rubbish i am surprized at you. lets look at the facts and compare to what you did against what you say you should do the opposite.
DIGGER bought under the brain dead dont think for christ sake system at 100c.
Share price right now 103c digger is plus 3c
MACDUNK use your loaf thats why you have it system.
1st trade bought sept at 86c sold dec at 112c = plus 26c
2nd trade bought dec at 107c sold jan at 109c = plus 2c
3rd trade bought feb at 103c sold ???????????????
There you have it DIGGER roughly 14% up less brokerage each trade as the brain dead have made a lousey 3%.
Have a go at NZO if you can work it out using that simple childlike TA system. Take it back as long as you like, then come back and say in all honesty you are right. Macdunk

[digger]

MD you were so fired up to rubbish my last post you did not take the time to read it all and reflect. It says the facts will win in the end.This is not the end---it is only the beginning of the beginning. The end to be more precise is two years after first cosl is exported.Make that about sept 2010,or before if takenover.
The trouble with trading is that on some short intervals[looking backwards] you can be better off than investers. You also have a lot more expenses from bockerage and unless cheating you have a tax bill if you get it right.Also you have a much larger imput of time and effort to keep up to the mark.I should also add that trader often get taken out only to see the price shoot up. Some figures i have seen[some time ago now as i am no longer interested in trading] shows that in the long run given extra effert and true expenses traders were worse off than buy and hold.
MD are you paying tax on all this profit you say you have made. If so and you can show it then i will be the first to say you were correct all along,otherwise the profits might be enlarged a little more than what reality has them. However i will say the MD did sell out of NZOOD and into PPP and made a good profit,which would have been even greater had he held on a bit longer.
Now back to that tax bill,yours must be hugh if we are to believe everthing you touch turns to gold.

[duncan macgregor]

I see you backing down now DIGGER you cant prove me wrong with facts so now its if you had did this or that it might have been better. We can all do better if we know what will happen in advance of the event. I tell you what happens reading the market give you buys and sells before the event then you come up with that guff. Trading is a business like any other business that pays tax. I bet you are not employed doing nothing but cash jobs we all pay tax. I only give you the most simplistic TA system to check out in advance of the event which must sometimes lose from time to time, but in the end will double or triple a fundamentalist return.
I wouldnt waste my time giving out time lines, or investing strategy, its bad enough trying to get them to understand using a buy signal on a 30 day moving average with a trailing stop loss. Open your eyes you just might see something. Macdunk

[Mick100]

.
1st trade bought sept at 86c sold dec at 112c = plus 26c
2nd trade bought dec at 107c sold jan at 109c = plus 2c
3rd trade bought feb at 103c sold ???????????????


Did you actually execute any of those trades macdunk?

Or have you reverted back to paper trading again

I suppose the main thing is for you, is that you still have something to boast about.;)

[Rabbi]

PRC up 6 cents today

I'm assuming buyers are after the cheap rights, which are now even cheaper.

It will be interesting to see what happens when this stock goes ex rights.:D

[tim23]

Is the issue renounceable?

[Robomo]

PRC up 6 cents today

I'm assuming buyers are after the cheap rights, which are now even cheaper.

It will be interesting to see what happens when this stock goes ex rights.:D

Bit late Rabbi, rights (renouncable) are determined on stock holdings as on 31 January. 90c per share looks pretty good on today's SP of 1.03. I'm unsure what will happen when stock goes ex-rights as there is obviously dilution of share value although against this debt servicing is just about eliminated. Maybe someone out there has a spreadsheet that might illustrate what the extra shares are likely to do to share value ex-rights.

[JMKC]

Stock is still trading cum rights in NZ, ex rights in AU so Rabbi it's actually not too late.

[Steve]

The record date is 8th of Feb, so you still have to the end of the week...

[manxman]

Maybe someone out there has a spreadsheet that might illustrate what the extra shares are likely to do to share value ex-rights.

SP cum rights SP ex rights Rights Value

90 90.000 0.000
91 90.762 0.762
92 91.524 1.524
93 92.286 2.286
94 93.048 3.048
95 93.810 3.810
96 94.571 4.571
97 95.333 5.333
98 96.095 6.095
99 96.857 6.857
100 97.619 7.619
101 98.381 8.381
102 99.143 9.143
103 99.905 9.905
104 100.667 10.667
105 101.429 11.429
106 102.190 12.190
107 102.952 12.952
108 103.714 13.714
109 104.476 14.476
110 105.238 15.238
111 106.000 16.000
112 106.762 16.762
113 107.524 17.524
114 108.286 18.286
115 109.048 19.048

Must learn how to format that properly.

Mx

[Lion]

SP cum rights SP ex rights Rights Value


Must learn how to format that properly.

Mx

Difficult or impossible, manxer, it's the fault of the chatsite software. Spaces and tabs don't help, the figures always seem to bunch up

[Unicorn]

Must learn how to format that properly.

Mx

It is fairly easy ... you need "Code" tags (which show as a # on the toolbar), otherwise (outside Code tags) the site strips multiple spaces. A monospaced font (e.g. Courier New) also helps e.g.



97 95.333 5.333
98 96.095 6.095
99 96.857 6.857
100 97.619 7.619
101 98.381 8.381
102 99.143 9.143


which looks like this before you submit it ... I have changed some [ characters to ( so you can see the basic code...
(CODE]
(FONT="Courier New"]
97 95.333 5.333
98 96.095 6.095
99 96.857 6.857
100 97.619 7.619
101 98.381 8.381
102 99.143 9.143(/FONT]
(/CODE]

[Rabbi]

All very interesting, thanks manxman and unicorn.

You have calculated the new diluted share value from the rights ratio and subtracted the 90c to get the rights price, I think?

However it occurs to me, that people with small holdings who wish to sell their rights would lose out on minimum brokerage fees. Am I correct on this assumption or have I missed something ?

[Robomo]

The record date is 8th of Feb, so you still have to the end of the week...

Thanks Steve, didn't note PRC's revised offer of 90c that also changed the record date.

[RossT]

Ok then, have i got this right?

The discounted issue price basicly compensates the existing shareholder for the dilution of the value of their existing holding resulting from the issue of more shares, And if I take up my entitlement I'm basisly maintaining the "status quo" of my holding on an average paid per share basis?

The rights are renounceable, so i can - a: do nothing. b: Buy my entitlement. c: sell my entitlement without actually buying the shares myself ?

As a newbie, if "c" what is the mechanism for doing this, do they get listed as a separate entity that get traded in the same way normal shares do ?

Also if I had no cash to take up my entitlement, theoreticaly I'd sell my holding just before the 8th Feb and buy back in after the issue as the sp should firm as people chase entitlement and then dip to account for dilution ( theoreticaly) ?

[bermuda]

Ok then, have i got this right?

The discounted issue price basicly compensates the existing shareholder for the dilution of the value of their existing holding resulting from the issue of more shares, And if I take up my entitlement I'm basisly maintaining the "status quo" of my holding on an average paid per share basis?

The rights are renounceable, so i can - a: do nothing. b: Buy my entitlement. c: sell my entitlement without actually buying the shares myself ?

As a newbie, if "c" what is the mechanism for doing this, do they get listed as a separate entity that get traded in the same way normal shares do ?

Also if I had no cash to take up my entitlement, theoreticaly I'd sell my holding just before the 8th Feb and buy back in after the issue as the sp should firm as people chase entitlement and then dip to account for dilution ( theoreticaly) ?

RossT;

(I know its only theoretical)

And what say the new coking coal price gets announced during this dip period? What then. I prefer to hold.I am not a trader. Knowing my luck I would be out of the market the very day before they announce the new price which I am predicting to be around the $US148 per tonne.

[Hoop]

Hi RossT

...As a newbie, if "c" what is the mechanism for doing this, do they get listed as a separate entity that get traded in the same way normal shares do ?.....
If you want to sell your entitlement.."c" Yes the rights get listed as a separate entity and are traded the same way as normal shares.

First of all.. the rights get issued before computershare has time to post you the securities transaction statement, so to obtain exactly how many rights you have... go online to www.computershare.co.nz (http://www.computershare.co.nz) and this will redirect you to http://www-au.computershare.com/default.asp?bhjs=1&fla=1&cc=nz
On this page click on "Check a holding"
Brings up another page where you have to put in your investor number (your CSN number) and your FIN
The company code should not be too difficult as it follows various rules..."R" for rights "W" for warrants and "O" for options...
So my first guess (if nobody has told me beforehand) would be to enter in the company code as PRCRA The A at the end is because it is the first rights issued so it is "A". If there happens to be the second rights issued it will be B and so on...C...D..
Once you click submit the next should bring up all you details plus the exact number of rights you now own.

Now you know exactly how many you can sell.

I will probably be doing this on the day, but not to sell, just to update my portfolio.

....Also if I had no cash to take up my entitlement, theoreticaly I'd sell my holding just before the 8th Feb and buy back in after the issue as the sp should firm as people chase entitlement and then dip to account for dilution ( theoreticaly) ?

Bermuda has covered some of the pitfalls. ie market fluctuations.
Some others to watch for.....Brokerage fees both for sell and re-buy,
.....Practice and Theory seldom the same.
....If P and T the same it's approx 2.5c the diff
hardly worth the effort + risk.

Usually investors who are short of cash normally sell some ordinary (head) shares to pay for the conversion of the rights to ordinary shares.

Hope this helps somewhat

[RossT]

Bermuda - You're quite right, with the upcoming price setting on hcc looking very promising for mines, it would not be the time to be out of the market. Big risk for ? reward.

Hoop - Exactly the info I was after ! Many thanks.

[Dr_Who]

Have you guys seen the $NZ/$US lately? It is forecast to hit 90 cents with further US rate cuts in the future. High exchange rate, rights issue and cooling global markets must have some impact on PRC. Maybe someone can crunch the numbers for us.

[manxman]

Have you guys seen the $NZ/$US lately? It is forecast to hit 90 cents with further US rate cuts in the future. High exchange rate, rights issue and cooling global markets must have some impact on PRC. Maybe someone can crunch the numbers for us.

Much the same is happening with the AU$. It may pass the US$ before PRC in the near future. That is probably why the Oz coalers are sticking out for such a high US$ price. It will be their success in pricing in the US$ weakness that insulates PRC from harm. Good luck to them.

Mx

[digger]

Have you guys seen the $NZ/$US lately? It is forecast to hit 90 cents with further US rate cuts in the future. High exchange rate, rights issue and cooling global markets must have some impact on PRC. Maybe someone can crunch the numbers for us.
I have a feeling that the universal selling/buying in the US dollar is coming to an end.Maybe the Iranians are onto something. Perhaps more likely that a subclause will get put into trading contracts linking to the Euro for some return to stabality that the US dollar used to give.
This falling US is having a big impact. Last week i decided to not buy cull cows to market in two months as all profits could be wiped out with a rising Kiwi relative to the US. Will grase the land to dry dairy stock instead,with quarantee profits. Business of all types now just have to factor in this new reality.
Yes i think the US dollar is on the way out. Thanks 8 years of BUSH.

[Hoop]

Digger quote ...Thanks 8 years of BUSH..

Don't forget good ol' George H W Bush (1989-1993) :)

The 1989 invasion of Panama. 1990-1991 attack of Iraq and the start of the Gulf war, the USA recession 1988-91 (Can't give full credit to George as Ron (Reagan) had a hand in that one as well).
The inability of ending any invasion successfully. A president who had lost touch with the average Americian. Questionable foreign policies. A increased flow of money to the (selected) top away from average Americians

Hmmmmm...all sounds quiet familiar ..doesn't it.

[bk]

Wooow! According to an article at the Energy Bulletin (http://energybulletin.net/39870.html) coal prices may soon hit $300 per tonne, with one deal already signed at $270 per tonne. Now if only PRC was producing . . .

[bermuda]

Wooow! According to an article at the Energy Bulletin (http://energybulletin.net/39870.html) coal prices may soon hit $300 per tonne, with one deal already signed at $270 per tonne. Now if only PRC was producing . . .

It is pretty obvious that PRC is in for one hell of an upwards rerating if the mine goes according to Plan. Gordon Ward in this morning's Press says everythings ok.

I will be taking up all my rights that's for sure.

Coking coal is really getting tight as evidenced by spot prices well over $US200.

If only we had a decent well respected mining analyst in NZ.Still I think a few other players must be watching closely to see if this coal can actually reach the Port.This is going to be one of NZ's best projects.

[digger]

Wooow! According to an article at the Energy Bulletin (http://energybulletin.net/39870.html) coal prices may soon hit $300 per tonne, with one deal already signed at $270 per tonne. Now if only PRC was producing . . .

The price of coking coal has risen even more dramatically. Last week McCloskey suggested the spot price might almost double to $210, but by Friday one multi-vessel deal had been struck at $270. McCloskey now expects the price to hit $300 this week. “People should be really worried; this is going to fuel inflation”. Most coking coal is traded under annual contracts, and the current contract price is $98, but the contracts are about to be renegotiated.

McCloskey says the shortage of coking coal will persist for years, until the expansion of Australian rail and port capacity catches up with demand. Steam coal prices, which have soared following severe weather in China and the power crisis in South Africa, may fall back if the US is able to divert supplies into the Atlantic market – although it is unclear if they have the transport capacity either. “I think we will see these very high price levels for at least 6 months”, says McCloskey.

[zorba]

.
I attended the Special Meeting of Shareholders in Wellington yesterday regarding the issue of convertible bonds to Liberty Harbor.

John Dow the Chairman of the Board gave a good account of the reasons behind the Liberty Harbor bonds and the Rights capital raising .... far better than trying to get funding from Westpac who apparently thought they had PRC over a barrel and that they could charge completely exhorbitant interest rates on their proposed loan to Pike.

John pointed out that having LH on board as an institutional investor was a really good signal for other institutional investors and gave excellent credability to the whole Pike endeavour.

Gordon W gave a good update on progress at the mine and gave background to the decision to go with the rail transport option. Apparently the West Coast Shipping Consortium were not meeting their deadlines for finalising their contract, and they were also trying to up the transport costs to New Plymouth (WCSC also thought they had Pike over a barrel), they were proposing as much as $45 / tonne shipped whereas the rail option price was a dollar less than the prospectus price of $39 (or was $40 ?). So a much better deal, ie potentially saving around $6 or $7 per tonne in transport costs, as would have been the case if the shipping consortium had forced $45 / tonne on PRC.

PRC also has preferential rail transport rights for Pike coal ahead of any Solid Energy neads, so all round an excellent deal for PRC, and surely de-risks a very important aspect of the whole operation.

Building and owning the coal to train load out facility gives Pike control over this important step, and also represents good overall operating cost savings, notwithstanding the extra upfront capital required.

The locked down transport costs plus projected mine operating costs were identified by PRC management at the meeting as being in total approx NZ$75 per tonne, so thats a useful number for DCF cash flow valuations for different US$ coking coal price scenarios.

Spoke to John Dow afterwards, tried to inno.cently get an indication as to what the present shareprice of around a dollar would generate in terms of P/E ratios once the mine was in full production and pulling in full production earnings, but he was too sharp and was not going to give that away, but he did indicate that he was in the market for Pikes at current prices which is certainly confirmed by the recent Directors Disclosure Notice.

During the meeting there was plenty of dicussion from PRC management about exchange rates and NZ$ linkage to AU$, basically if Aussie exchange rate goes up then Aussie coal price negotiators will be pushing very hard to balance the higher FX rates against higher US$ coal prices because of the need to cover their AU$ production costs. Thus for PRC coal exports, higher US$ coal prices will also provide a buffer against possible higher NZ$/US$ rates, since NZ$ and AU$ FX trends are usually pretty closely linked.

All in all PRC is ontrack and with projected high coking coal prices the P/E ratio should see some serious revaluation of current share prices once Pike gets into full production.
.

[digger]

Good one Zorba for that summary of the special Pike meeting.Is that 75 dollars the current all up costs from mine to export ship. About a little over a year ago Peter told me it was about 58 dollars,so given the rising costs it sounds about right. So in relative terms98(75)divided by 55 gives 133. Hence to keep the same relative profit after this cost rise we need to sell the coal for 133 or better.
Just thought i would get in before some negative twit goes on about cost overruns and can not see revenue increasing to easily wipe the costs from the board.

[zorba]

.
Digger,

The prospectus (Table 4, page 29) shows operating costs per tonne = NZ$77 .
So latest estimate indicates a reduction in oprating costs of NZ$2 / tonne.

Cheers

[bermuda]

.
I attended the Special Meeting of Shareholders in Wellington yesterday regarding the issue of convertible bonds to Liberty Harbor.

John Dow the Chairman of the Board gave a good account of the reasons behind the Liberty Harbor bonds and the Rights capital raising .... far better than trying to get funding from Westpac who apparently thought they had PRC over a barrel and that they could charge completely exhorbitant interest rates on their proposed loan to Pike.

John pointed out that having LH on board as an institutional investor was a really good signal for other institutional investors and gave excellent credability to the whole Pike endeavour.

Gordon W gave a good update on progress at the mine and gave background to the decision to go with the rail transport option. Apparently the West Coast Shipping Consortium were not meeting their deadlines for finalising their contract, and they were also trying to up the transport costs to New Plymouth (WCSC also thought they had Pike over a barrel), they were proposing as much as $45 / tonne shipped whereas the rail option price was a dollar less than the prospectus price of $39 (or was $40 ?). So a much better deal, ie potentially saving around $6 or $7 per tonne in transport costs, as would have been the case if the shipping consortium had forced $45 / tonne on PRC.

PRC also has preferential rail transport rights for Pike coal ahead of any Solid Energy neads, so all round an excellent deal for PRC, and surely de-risks a very important aspect of the whole operation.

Building and owning the coal to train load out facility gives Pike control over this important step, and also represents good overall operating cost savings, notwithstanding the extra upfront capital required.

The locked down transport costs plus projected mine operating costs were identified by PRC management at the meeting as being in total approx NZ$75 per tonne, so thats a useful number for DCF cash flow valuations for different US$ coking coal price scenarios.

Spoke to John Dow afterwards, tried to inno.cently get an indication as to what the present shareprice of around a dollar would generate in terms of P/E ratios once the mine was in full production and pulling in full production earnings, but he was too sharp and was not going to give that away, but he did indicate that he was in the market for Pikes at current prices which is certainly confirmed by the recent Directors Disclosure Notice.

During the meeting there was plenty of dicussion from PRC management about exchange rates and NZ$ linkage to AU$, basically if Aussie exchange rate goes up then Aussie coal price negotiators will be pushing very hard to balance the higher FX rates against higher US$ coal prices because of the need to cover their AU$ production costs. Thus for PRC coal exports, higher US$ coal prices will also provide a buffer against possible higher NZ$/US$ rates, since NZ$ and AU$ FX trends are usually pretty closely linked.

All in all PRC is ontrack and with projected high coking coal prices the P/E ratio should see some serious revaluation of current share prices once Pike gets into full production.
.


Thanks Zorba,
I dont really like the term but " no brainer" comes to mind.

[Robomo]

Thanks Zorba - good summary.
Forbes have just published an update on coal pricing and predict up to $200 per ton for the 2008-9 year, up from $95 per ton this year. Long term outlook is for $120 per ton.

http://www.forbes.com/markets/commodities/2008/02/05/coal-supply-pressures-markets-comm-cx_vk_0205markets01.html

"Citigroup predicted that the tight supply of thermal coal, the most common and cheapest coal, used in the production of electricity at thermal power stations, will begin to ease from 2010 as port and rail bottlenecks in Australia are removed. However, potential sources of additional supply of coking coal, an important ingredient in the production of steel, are much more difficult to identify, and prices are expected to remain higher for longer term."

No wonder that John Dow sounds so optomistic about PRC's future!

[digger]

.
Digger,

The prospectus (Table 4, page 29) shows operating costs per tonne = NZ$77 .
So latest estimate indicates a reduction in oprating costs of NZ$2 / tonne.

Cheers

I did those cals after a hard days work and too late in the sleep cycle. What i was suppost to do was get the relative price now from a year ago. I used the wrong figures. The real relative price we need to sell the coal for is much lower than the figures used last night. When Peter said the costs were 58 we were looking at 74 dollars in revenue. So the same ratio is now 101 dollars not 133,so much better. Now if we get 140 or 210 or 300 it will indeed be a no brainer.

Zorba. One problem we always have is that someone always wants to go along with the banks and forward sell all or most of our coal and think this is a smart move.Example is last year we would have been sold down the river for 98 so i sincerely hope the company is not in any way being led on by the bank twits. Mind you selling it for 300 if possible would change my views on forward selling,but nothing less.

[Corporate]

When do they aim to start producing?

[Hoop]

Thxs Zorba, a well informed posting.
Much appreciated.

[zorba]

shephejame:

When do they aim to start producing?

If my memory serves me, first coal will start moving in 3Q08.

Regarding the train transport option, the additional point made by management at the meeting was that environmentally it was the much better option, since it eliminates the very large number of big coal trucks rumbling along West Coast roads and through the town of Greymouth to the port. Overall should also lower the carbon footprint of the mining operation.
.

[duncan macgregor]

shephejame:

When do they aim to start producing?

If my memory serves me, first coal will start moving in 3Q08.

Regarding the train transport option, the additional point made by management at the meeting was that environmentally it was the much better option, since it eliminates the very large number of big coal trucks rumbling along West Coast roads and through the town of Greymouth to the port. Overall should also lower the carbon footprint of the mining operation.
. I think the above statement is hilarious. Worrying about carbon footprints while selling millions of tons of the bloody stuff to burn in India. What two faced clap trap. Macdunk

[Steve]

When do they aim to start producing?

Has been pushed out from late April 2008 to early July 2008...

[zorba]

.
Good on you Maklunk,

Another useful contribution in a long line of ABDO-METHANIC EMANATIONS !!!!

[Corporate]

.
Good on you Maklunk,

Another useful contribution in a long line of ABDO-METHANIC EMANATIONS !!!!


He's quite right though, good old PR

[Grimy]

I think the above statement is hilarious. Worrying about carbon footprints while selling millions of tons of the bloody stuff to burn in India. What two faced clap trap. Macdunk

I think after reading DM's posts for many months, this may be the first one I agree with!

[Hoop]

I think the above statement is hilarious. Worrying about carbon footprints while selling millions of tons of the bloody stuff to burn in India. What two faced clap trap. Macdunk

Interesting what fun and games these big carbon distributors get up to these days.

Did anyone watch Boston Legal last week? The episode was about big oil firms donating millions of dollars in scholarships to every well recognised Universities in the US with no strings attached!!!...the undercurrent theme was that the oil companies were buying future goodwill with those students who will one day be in positions of power...of course the oil companies dispute this suggestion and claim they are the good guys just out to help good ol' USA students, and are being unjustly victimised by the legal profession.....yeah right:p.

[RossT]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coke_(fuel)

Lets not forget that we're not selling thermal coal to burn here. Yes it still produces some pollution, but the procces of making coke and then the subsequent use of coke in blast furnaces is about as similar to the pollution produces from burning thermal coal as comparing burning damp wood (thermal coal) to burning charcoal ( coke )

I agree with Zorba, trains compared to non stop trucking is a no brainer and an excellent outcome alround. For the production, the bottom line and the West coast environment.

[duncan macgregor]

Never mind all that rubbish what really counts is PRC shares are up today in Australia in a down day in all the markets. NZO is taking a big hit. Tomorrow looks like PRC holding its price, and NZO dropping at least 3%. Thats all that counts not some loopy worrying about carbon pollution. Wait until the DOW reopens for direction is much more important to the short term share price than anything else at the moment. Macdunk

[RossT]

http://www.news.com.au/business/story/0,23636,23166819-462,00.html

"...... chinese and Japanese close to settling at us$210....."

[Crypto Crude]

I have just been talking to someone about PRC and this is what he told me... Dont quote me on accuracy or authensity of what was said....

He said,
"PRC will not turn a profit...1st production will be meet and then the problems will begin... Mt davey (spelling?) runs on the same seam and was terrible for Solid Energy, they were expecting to produce 1million tonnes per annum, and achieved 200k... there was gas build up and when the coal was extracted it exploded... miners died and they shut in the mine.... He also reckoned that Pike have developed and dug the mine far too cheaply... and that fracturing is a big problem... he also said that no mine on the West Coast has come close to producing the same amount that Pike is forecasting"....
Some of what he told me comes from a Westcoast Geologist....
.....
....
...
..
.
Off what the company has told us in terms of production volumes, and rise in coal prices, almost sounds like this project is a sure thing on paper... ... PRC is cheap as on paper.... this isnot investment advice, I donot specialise in coal, gold, Uranium etc... I donot fully understand the stages of this company and I have not invested, and willnot...
If problems dont start until 1st production (IF at all), then there is plenty of time to exit as SP will steadily rise up until first production and then explode on the news... early production risk could kick in later on....
.....
can anyone explain, debate, or write off my source as to what happened with mount davey?
:cool:
.^sc

[zorba]

.
The Pike project may yet produce carbon credits .....

One brave investor at the recent meeting suggested some of the Pike profits be put into developing a mega forestry operation on the West Coast ......

The idea being that the growing trees would off-set carbon emissions, and then in twenty years time when the coal runs out there will be a huge sustainable and profitable forestry operation to take over from the coal mining, PRC becomes Pike River Forests, and the tradeable carbon credits keep on rolling in and combined with the sustainable logging profits the dividends keep on flowing !!

So Maklunk, you never know how these things will turn out.
.

[zorba]

.
Shrewd Crude,

You have been listing to a lot of wild eyed baroom talk ...... the Brunner Seam is the main coal seam mined up and down the West Coast, it does not "explode" every time a miner sticks it with an axe, it was mined successfully for 65 years underground at the Strongman Mine. The coal at Strongman is now mined out.

Spring Creek is a new underground mine on the Brunner Seam that is using similar "hydro-mining" technology as in Pike:

************************************************** ***********

http://www.crownminerals.govt.nz/cms/news/2008/spring-creek-underground-coal-mine-resumes-production

Spring Creek underground coal mine resumes production

28 January 2008

Spring Creek underground coal mine near Greymouth, a joint venture between Solid Energy and Cargill, has resumed coal production following a 14 month $25 million redevelopment to access 3.1 million tonnes of semi-soft coking coal.

The hydraulic monitor has been commissioned and is now operating. The monitor is a high-pressure water cannon used to extract coal from the face and sluice it down to the underground pump station where it is sized and brought out of the mine either in a slurry pipeline or on conveyor belts.

Simon Doig, Solid Energy’s general manager, South Island operations, says the monitor start-up at Spring Creek is an important milestone for Solid Energy, Cargill and their Spring Creek Mining Company joint venture. Solid Energy has 51% of the joint venture and is the mine operator.

“This mine has a strong future, with up to 20 years of production and the coal is attracting strong interest from steelmakers,” he said.

To accelerate the mine’s further development and ensure production targets are met a recruitment campaign for experienced underground mineworkers and trades-people is underway in the UK.

The development project at Spring Creek has involved creating 4 km of new underground roadways and equipment bays, a major upgrade of the coal washery at Rocky Creek and other underground and surface equipment.

The washery upgrade allows the mine’s entire output – expected to be in excess of 65,000 tonnes a month – to be processed and for a greater proportion of the output to be low ash, making it more attractive to higher-end markets such as steel-making.

To ensure the pace of roadway development is maintained, a new roadheader and automated bolting rigs are on order.

[temuk]

Shrewy.

There has been a west coast geologist against this
project right from the start and had a spert in the papers
about a year ago, knocking only pike river.
his name is Murray Cave.

[bermuda]

I mean you can get 90 day money at 8 point something but I would rather have some here particularly with plus $US 148 a tonne coming up. Plus increasing demand and worldwide supply hiccups.

Well done NZO/PRC

I hate getting things wrong!

Best I up my estimate to $US200 plus.

Shrewdy,
Rest assured Peter Whittall ( 25 years BHP coal ) will produce the goods. And there's more to come.

This is just so good. The IPO was put forward in a very negative climate. It is still there but if we get plus $US200 per tonne then things are going to get awfully good for PRC.

[digger]

Shrewy.

There has been a west coast geologist against this
project right from the start and had a spert in the papers
about a year ago, knocking only pike river.
his name is Murray Cave.


This guy has continually resurfaced a few times now.Several years ago before PIKE got the go ahead some geoligist knowing all about the west coast mineing area was dead against DOC giving approval to PIKEand fought it bitterly. After approval was granted stories and titbits kept turning up anti PIKE. So all in all nothing new here.

[Nitaa]

Murray Cave

What is his gripe really? What is his motive?

He was the only person that was having a go at Pike.. Tall Poppy syndrome?

[Steve]

Perhaps someone could explain where this Murray Cave fits into the PRC picture?

[Xerof]

Murray Cave - cripes, so we still mine with picks and davy lamps....


carbon credits - no impact as all the coal is exported - might be a small impact from the methane gas releases


chinese and Japanese close to settling at us$210 - given spot is trading at 270, this looks reasonable

The ducks are all lining up for PRC

[swissboy]

Good to see Directors buying on the open market.
Shows confidence and is best indicator

[zorba]

.
Swissboy,

The Chairman of the Board buying up the company's shares ..... its a steel at these prices, and you are quite right ... the Chairman standing in the market inspires confidence ..... see my earlier post regarding the recent Special Shareholder Meeting !!

[temuk]

Perhaps someone could explain where this Murray Cave fits into the PRC picture?

He dosn't!!

Like a lone pimple raising his head now and then!

[bermuda]

Far out.!!! The NZ and ASX markets are just so far behind what's going on.

Hold tight for a big special surprise. Wont be long.

[dsurf]

Far out.!!! The NZ and ASX markets are just so far behind what's going on.

Hold tight for a big special surprise. Wont be long.

Are you alluding to the impending coking coal price settlement?

[bermuda]

Are you alluding to the impending coking coal price settlement?

Exactly. Will give the Brokers an excuse to recommend PRC. I will raise my bid to $US170 per tonne.

[Hoop]

LISTING: PRC: Quotation Notice -
Renounceable Rights (PRCRA)
02:41pmPRC 08/02/2008 LISTING REL: 1441 HRS Pike River Coal Limited LISTING: PRC: Quotation Notice - Renounceable Rights (PRCRA) Quotation Notice: Renounceable Rights (PRCRA) Company Name: Pike River Coal Limited (PRC) Prospectus Dated: 17 January 2008 Details of Issue: The renounceable Rights will be issued to existing Shareholders and Noteholders on the register at the close of trading on NZSX on the Record Date for this Offer, being 8 February 2008. Entitlement to Rights for Shares traded on ASX will be determined at close of trading on 8 February 2008 and existing Shares will be quoted on ASX "ex rights" from 4 February 2008. Special provisions apply to Securityholders with registered addresses outside of New Zealand and Australia. Ratio: 1: 3.201893445 Issue Price: $0.90 Payable: In full upon application Dividend Ranking: Pari passu from the time of the issue Fractional Entitlements: Disregarded Record Date: Friday, 8 February 2008 Offer Opens and Rights Trading Starts on NZX: Monday, 11 February 2008 Despatch Date: Monday, 11 February 2008 Rights Trading Ends on NZX: Tuesday, 4 March 2008 Offer Closes: Thursday, 6 March 2008 at 5pm (NZT) Allotment of New Shares: Thursday, 13 March 2008 Faster Statement Despatch Date: Thursday, 13 March 2008 Commencement of Trading of New Shares: Friday, 14 March 2008 Share Registry: Computershare Investor Services Limited (RMLT) Settlement Status: FASTER Tradeable Rights Code: PRCRA ISIN: NZPRCE0002S1 Ex Rights: Monday, 11 February 2008 M. Weldon Chief Executive Officer New Zealand Exchange Limited 08 February 2008 End CA:00160268 For:PRC Type:LISTING Time:2008-02-08:14:41:40

[Bilo]

I got in at 26 cents but have sold down a fair bit to get into some exciting CSG plays in Queensland. If anyone is interested have a look at the recent QGC's announcements.This CSG thing is going bananas.

This might not be the thread for it Bermuda but it follows from your post.
I spoke to Peter W re gas in the coal at Pike River and if there was any way of utilising it. I guess at the time he saw it more as a problem than an opportunity. PRC have the licence to CSG over a much greater area than they currently intend to mine. A number of questions come to mind.


Do you know if PRC has made any investigations into extracting gas before mining?
How gaseous is their coal?
Is it possible to drill along prospective mine roadways and extract gas without endangering subsequent mining operations?
How do the CSG drillers prepare their bores to extract gas?Transfer this to PRC if you like.
PS picked up a few BOW myself - to go with my BOZ - neither going anywhere fast at the moment but in this market that is a good thing
Regards

[winner69]

Sniper mentioned high gas counts was a concern a year or so ago ... said so on one of the PRC threads .... but then sniper talked a load of crap eh

........ and said that this was one of the reasons why the IPO took so long to come to market

Must have been all fixed ..... but then why are people still talking about it

[bermuda]

Sniper mentioned high gas counts was a concern a year or so ago ... said so on one of the PRC threads .... but then sniper talked a load of crap eh

........ and said that this was one of the reasons why the IPO took so long to come to market

Must have been all fixed ..... but then why are people still talking about it

CSG is to be reckoned with in every coal mine. I spoke to Peter Whittall about it on a visit to the mine. He is VERY thorough. It will be dealt with professionally.

Bilo, I will ask Peter for a response to your queries.

Bilo, what's with the BOZ????? Get some RPM.

[soltrader]

Does anyone have a rough indication on where the price might be after allocation of the new shares.
Do we expect significant dilution?

[digger]

Does anyone have a rough indication on where the price might be after allocation of the new shares.
Do we expect significant dilution?

Try about 1.01 on monday
You currently have 3 at 105 plus one at 90 cents so that gives 4 shares costing 4-05
This divided by 4 gives 1-01.
My take is that monday finish it will be 1-02.

[bermuda]

Try about 1.01 on monday
You currently have 3 at 105 plus one at 90 cents so that gives 4 shares costing 4-05
This divided by 4 gives 1-01.
My take is that monday finish it will be 1-02.

Digger,
Go milk the cows and relax.

You and I know we are onto something that is really big. News due out shortly.

Ryman is the best but Pike has got grunt.

[RossT]

The issue of rights is now showing on the Computershare registry.

I understand trading in these can begin tommorrow?

Here's hoping for a juicy contract price announcement soon.

[AMR]

Digger,
Go milk the cows and relax.

You and I know we are onto something that is really big. News due out shortly.

Ryman is the best but Pike has got grunt.

Ryman Healthcare? Has Bermuda gone soft in his old age?:D

Best of luck to all Pikers here, my exposure to PRC is only through my stake in NZO. I will be looking to buy back in once the majority of the mining risk is gone. Selling out in 2 years when the price is $4.50 a share:D:D

(Actually this post does have a serious purpose. Can someone produce an updated NPV analysis with the new prices?)

[digger]

Note on one seems to be game to have a go at putting their name to a price listing of PRCOR tomorrow. I will have a go but first have to set out a few things. Firstly the rights have only 3 weeks and one day of life so the action will be swift. Over this time good news is likely to focus on the coal price and the fact that this is the last of the monies needed before production. The bad news is the US is draging itself and possibly the world into recession,the outcome of which will be the near term unknown.
In normal times [subprime removed] it would be fair to guess that in this short 3 weeks a rush would happen to accumulate the rights,pushing up the price.So in normal times the rights could go as high as 20 cents meaning that the heads will climb to 110 by end of rights trading. However these are not normal times so some consertave thinking will creep in and i think that 15 cents will be the top at end rights trading.
So at end of first days trading tomorrow i say it will be 12 cents. Any takers before beginning of tomorrow trading?
Sorry Bermuda the cows are all dry. Drought on you know so no cows to milk.The other reason why i am not milking cows now is that i retired and sold my herd 3 years ago.

[bermuda]

Ryman Healthcare? Has Bermuda gone soft in his old age?:D

Best of luck to all Pikers here, my exposure to PRC is only through my stake in NZO. I will be looking to buy back in once the majority of the mining risk is gone. Selling out in 2 years when the price is $4.50 a share:D:D

(Actually this post does have a serious purpose. Can someone produce an updated NPV analysis with the new prices?)

Know all the management, backgound and 'modus operandi'. Outstanding NZ company.

Dont worry I have got all my dosh on

NZO, PRC, BAS, BOW, PES, VPE, VPEO, and the little darling RPM. Plus TEX

But Ryman is very very solid.Well better than that.

[zorba]

.
Newkie Thermal coal at another record ....... US$125 / tonne

All looking extra good for coking coal prices !!!!

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20602099&sid=atrZYlYGK6d0&refer=energy

[Hoop]

Not much interest on PRCRA yet. One trade at 9 cents

Depth as at 12.07pm is





Security code or Company name: NZX ASX
View: Quote Detailed Depth Charts News

PRCRA.NZX - Pike River Coal Limited Ordinary Shares

Last VWAP Buy Sell High Low First Volume Value


9 9 15 9 9 9 3,883 $349


[Buy] [Sell] [Add to Watch] [Add to Portfolio]


Bids
Quantity No. Price
1,000 1 9
5,000 1 5
50,000 1 3
86,000 3 2

Asks
Price No. Quantity
15 1 936
20 1 6,246
25 1 15,615

Recent Trades
Price Volume Time Cond
9 3,883 12:32









Interesting to see that Direct Brokering have automatically updated my portfolio showing me the amount of PRCRA I have ...so I don't need to input it manually.

[RossT]

And a note for beginners....(me) Re: Direct broking

If you go to buy PRCRA, your settlement includes the 90 cents plus the cost of the right.

The 90 cents is held in trust until the application date unless you sell your rights, in which case it is refunded back to you.

This is a safeguard to ensure those buying rights do have the funds to take up the shares.

You are only charged brokerage on the rights.

[the machine]

Efforts are underway to recover a coal ship that slipped its berth at Queensland's largest coal export terminal.

Captain John Elliott says the ship broke free from the Dalrymple Bay coal terminal and rammed in the Hay Point terminal, tearing a 10-metre gash along the port side.

Four tug boats secured the ship, but recovery efforts are being hampered by a jammed anchor.

"One has been recovered but the ship is experiencing difficulty recovering the second anchor," he said.

"We're probably going to release that anchor."

M

[COLIN]

Efforts are underway to recover a coal ship that slipped its berth at Queensland's largest coal export terminal.

Captain John Elliott says the ship broke free from the Dalrymple Bay coal terminal and rammed in the Hay Point terminal, tearing a 10-metre gash along the port side.

Four tug boats secured the ship, but recovery efforts are being hampered by a jammed anchor.

"One has been recovered but the ship is experiencing difficulty recovering the second anchor," he said.

"We're probably going to release that anchor."

M
And the relevance to Pike is....................................?????????

[the machine]

And the relevance to Pike is....................................?????????

one would expect a ship ramming into the hay point coking coal terminal might do some damage to the terminal, inturn interrupting loading coal and tightening the market.

a tighter coking coal market underpins the price being set in annual negotiations, being the benchmark that prc will be measured against

should know in a day or so.

M

[digger]

one would expect a ship ramming into the hay point coking coal terminal might do some damage to the terminal, inturn interrupting loading coal and tightening the market.

a tighter coking coal market underpins the price being set in annual negotiations, being the benchmark that prc will be measured against

should know in a day or so.

M

Interesting but of little to nil long term effect.

PRCRA has had a very poor run till now. The US just might avoid a recession with a good 138 lift last session so maybe a feeling is creeping in that it is not all down hill. Regreatably PIKE's biggest negative is the US economy and it's world wide effect.

[Steve]

PRCRA has had a very poor run till now.

I thought that it has been a better than expected run during the rights trading period so far (all 2 days of it!).

I guess that PRC will dip to 95c, if not lower during the next couple of weeks and have placed a buy at 93c in expectation of that...

[dsurf]

Efforts are underway to recover a coal ship that slipped its berth at Queensland's largest coal export terminal.

Captain John Elliott says the ship broke free from the Dalrymple Bay coal terminal and rammed in the Hay Point terminal, tearing a 10-metre gash along the port side.

Four tug boats secured the ship, but recovery efforts are being hampered by a jammed anchor.

"One has been recovered but the ship is experiencing difficulty recovering the second anchor," he said.

"We're probably going to release that anchor."

M

Thank M - very interesting - shows the mayhem caused by the overcrowding in the worlds largest coking coal port and of course any bottleneck in the worlds transport chain is very good for PRC

keep up the excellent posts - hope the terminal is damaged til at least PRC is producing!!

[Billy Boy]

And the relevance to Pike is....................................?????????
:D SH*T HAPPENS :D
BB

[dsurf]

:D SH*T HAPPENS :D
BB

You should be called "henny penny" suggesting the roof is falling like that

[Billy Boy]

You should be called "henny penny" suggesting the roof is falling like that

.........:D.........
BB

[tim23]

Digger I thought China or India could be more of a threat than US?

[Billy Boy]

Digger I thought China or India could be more of a threat than US?
Yea but a slowdown in the US would cause slowdown in Asia.
China & India would not be selling the same amount of consumables.
Downward spiral one might say.
BB

[sideline]

from Bloomberg:

Rio Warns of Missed Shipments at Queensland Coal Mine (Update2)

By Angela Macdonald-Smith

Feb. 15 (Bloomberg) -- Rio Tinto Group, the world's third- biggest mining company, said it may miss coal deliveries from its Hail Creek mine in Queensland due to heavy rains, adding to supply disruptions in Australia, the biggest exporter.

The company advised customers of delays late yesterday, Alison Smith, a spokeswoman at Rio Tinto's coal unit in Queensland, said today by telephone. The Blair Athol and Kestrel mines, which are also affected by the rains, should meet their supply commitments, she said.

Rio brings to a least six the number of Queensland coal suppliers that have declared force majeure on deliveries since monsoonal rains affected the Bowen Basin in January. The disruptions have driven spot prices for power-station coal and the type used in steelmaking to a record, Tex Report said today.

.........................

Prices Jump

Spot prices for coal used in steelmaking have jumped to $270 a ton, almost triple the annual contract price, while the power-station coal spot price climbed to $150, Tex said. Annual contract prices this year ``will inevitably skyrocket,'' exceeding $200 for steelmaking coal and $100 for power-station coal, the Japanese industry newsletter said.

...................................

[Robomo]

Speculation continues that contract prices could be round the $200 US mark. When the Chairman of Western Canadian Coal Corp. (TSX:WTN) John Hogg makes statements like that it certainly has an effect on the share price (32c rise on the Toronto Stock Exchange yesterday) even though the Company reported a loss for the previous year!
http://www.news1130.com/news/business/article.jsp?content=b0215135A

[Steve]

As long as I get my top-up at 93c during the rights trading period, before the good news is factored in and the shareprice moves upwards.

Almost had them on friday, quoted 93/94 for a while but nobody brought themselves to hand any over to me. Hopefully monday does the trick...

[the machine]

although against the dilution will probably take up my entitlementof 2034 shares - at very least will avoid diluting my shareholding.

prc better pay dividends sooner rather than later though, as they will have no immediate debt apart from the senior debt, that can be converted to shares in 3 years time.

conversion rate between nz/au is in our favour for once.

M

[bermuda]

although against the dilution will probably take up my entitlementof 2034 shares - at very least will avoid diluting my shareholding.

prc better pay dividends sooner rather than later though, as they will have no immediate debt apart from the senior debt, that can be converted to shares in 3 years time.

conversion rate between nz/au is in our favour for once.

M
The savvy will be taking up all their rights. This is one of the very few NZ stocks that has real potential. Just have a look at the chaos in the coking coal market where at now there are now about 80 ships queuing offshore Newcastle to pick up supplies for angry customers that need this stuff NOW. Queensland is not over their floods yet and the Port infrastructure is a nightmare. Add on to that the troubles in South Africa who are still suffering power outages .

These factors plus a surging demand for steel ( coking coal ) and you have the perfect recipe for a major coking coal price hike and a major rerating of PRC.

[dsurf]

The savvy will be taking up all their rights. This is one of the very few NZ stocks that has real potential. Just have a look at the chaos in the coking coal market where at now there are now about 80 ships queuing offshore Newcastle to pick up supplies for angry customers that need this stuff NOW. Queensland is not over their floods yet and the Port infrastructure is a nightmare. Add on to that the troubles in South Africa who are still suffering power outages .

These factors plus a surging demand for steel ( coking coal ) and you have the perfect recipe for a major coking coal price hike and a major rerating of PRC.

Agree totally - shame about the timing of the rights issue - PRC SP was building up steam - looks dead in the water until the rights out of the way - then look out 2nd 1/2 march!

[bermuda]

Agree totally - shame about the timing of the rights issue - PRC SP was building up steam - looks dead in the water until the rights out of the way - then look out 2nd 1/2 march!
Nippon Steel have just agreed a 65% price hike for Iron ore.
Bodes well for coking coal.

[tim23]

I see we can apply for additional shares, might be good opp to pick up some before the underwriter grabs them.

[bermuda]

I see we can apply for additional shares, might be good opp to pick up some before the underwriter grabs them.

Thanks Tim, I didnt actually know that and was trying to work out what the best method was. Didnt take up my full allocation of PRC's but am thinking I should really grab another 50k to make it an even ton.

This has got a very big future which is as yet well under the radar. Give it 6-9 months.

[Billy Boy]

Hey bremuda
Go for it all. Take up every option you can plus more.
Have a look at the dow, put against the nekkie. etc etc
I know you are smarter than the SP right now.
Or are you having us all on ???
cheers BB
ps I'm allowed to be stupid. Your not :)
So behave your self :)

[bermuda]

Hey bremuda
Go for it all. Take up every option you can plus more.
Have a look at the dow, put against the nekkie. etc etc
I know you are smarter than the SP right now.
Or are you having us all on ???
cheers BB
ps I'm allowed to be stupid. Your not :)
So behave your self :)

Billy Boy,

I am allowed to be what I want to be. So are we all.

[dsurf]

Thanks Tim, I didnt actually know that and was trying to work out what the best method was. Didnt take up my full allocation of PRC's but am thinking I should really grab another 50k to make it an even ton.

This has got a very big future which is as yet well under the radar. Give it 6-9 months.

Right on. substantially de-risked. Prices very firm (pity production won't be huge that year).
A steal at 90c.

[AMR]

Can someone in the know give an assessment of tunneling risk that PRC faces?

[COLIN]

Can someone in the know give an assessment of tunneling risk that PRC faces?

My take is that no-one knows. The company will have tried to get as accurate an assessment as possible, from "expert" sources, but have not hidden the fact that the most difficult of the uncharted territory is yet to come.
If you want a slice of the action, but the risks are still too high for you, go the NZO route and spread the risk.
DISC: Hold 80k NZO

[Billy Boy]

Can someone in the know give an assessment of tunneling risk that PRC faces?
In financial terms, depends whats ahead as to ground type (hard/soft).
Also the $ cost when the fault line is hit. And is it still moving, if so buy
how much (per year). Stabilising cost, fissure's, etc...
It's always a posibility that something odd is struck as could have been the case so far todate, who Knows. I personally think there's not much to worry about as plenty of faults etc were hit in the Manapouri project.
In physicial tunneling terms not much risk out of the normal that money wont fix. Speed may be impaired because of ground type or other oddies.
BB

[dsurf]

Can someone in the know give an assessment of tunneling risk that PRC faces?

I can safely say 80? % has gone since they have completed 80? % of the tunnel - good scaremongering - are you going to buy heaps of rights hopefully?

[Hoop]

Can someone in the know give an assessment of tunneling risk that PRC faces?

Try re-reading post #1415. Most of the info is still relevent and it may answer your question

[RossT]

"Australian contract coal prices will probably jump to over $220/ton"

http://tinyurl.com/2dk3z3

[Rabbi]

Anyone know what the depth is on the rights.

I'm interested in topping up but it seems the rights are keenly bid and they might even go higher.

[RossT]

Prcra depth @ 4:13

Top bids = 60k@6 and 29k@5
Lowest ask = 15k@7 and 12k@8

[Rabbi]

Cheers

Put a bid in for a few more at 5c but might have to wait until next week for more sellers.

With the price of coking coal going gangbusters and supply difficulties in Australia this might be the last chance for some cheap shares.

[bermuda]

"Australian contract coal prices will probably jump to over $220/ton"

http://tinyurl.com/2dk3z3

Thanks RossT

Time to buy some more PRC.

[johndeyell]

I am selling my PRCRA options at market price - someone go and buy them!

[RossT]

"Japanese steel mills paying us$350/ton to secure supply"
"We just don't know where supply quota is going to come from"

http://tinyurl.com/2qqz9m

[Sehnsucht888]

Nice article out today:
-------------
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/section/3/story.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=10494312

-------------
Deep underground, Pike River Coal's mines manager Peter Whittall turns to an old mining adage after running through the many challenges the $230 million project has faced.

"Mining's not like being in a chocolate factory."

The dank cavern around 100m underground and nearly 2km into the Paparoa Range is like no other workplace. At the mine's pit bottom, a coal processing and utility area, water drips from the ceiling, visitors must look out for huge vehicles that drill through rock five times harder than concrete and the air is heavy with the smell of cement and lime.

What is missing though is the smell of coal, which according to much company literature earlier this decade should have been feeding the world's steel mills by now.

But as Whittall says, mining is not predictable.

"You never know what you're going to get before you get there."

What the hard-driven Australian can be sure of is the mountain of coal is just around the corner and, given the project's history, there could be a few more curveballs to dodge before then.


The Pike River story is one of false starts in getting the company to the NZX, overambitious timetables and cost overruns. But also of huge promise.

Work on the 2.3km tunnel started in September 2006 and is 86 per cent complete. There's less than 400m separating the miners from a rich seam which could yield around 1 million tonnes a year over the next 18 years. And it's not just any coal - it's premium-grade hard coking coal which will rocket to fetch anything from US$130 ($161) a tonne to US$200 a tonne this year due to demand.

"If it's black they'll buy it," Whittall said last week.

The company hopes to start producing later this year and sell 200,000 tonnes before the middle of next year.

The coal is part of the Brunner Seam, discovered in 1846. Pike River has taken decades to get off the ground, in no small part because it's covered by ancient rimu trees on land owned by the Department of Conservation, the northern part of which is a national park.

It's clear environmental obligations are a priority once you reach Pike River's private road with its warnings not to trespass and not to litter.

As the road passes through department land, by law it twists around large rimu trees and must be restored to its natural state when mining ends. Every trace of the project, including seven bridges, power lines and buildings must go.

The budget for the restoration job is $2 million which Whittall hopefully suggests may be saved if the department chooses instead to convert the project headquarters near the tunnel portal into a training centre.

Pike River's road also passes through farmland which butts into the conservation estate and is clearly not subject to the same environmental constraints. The farmland is strewn with smouldering beech tree trunks and major earthworks. While the focus is on black gold in the looming Paparoa range, the land clearance is a sign of another West Coast boom industry, dairy conversion.

Whittall says demand for power in and around Greymouth from dairy processing and mining is putting increasing strain on the local power infrastructure. Pike built a 110kv feed from the national grid for $3.2 million but there have been been cuts and there was now lobbying of Transpower to double capacity along the coast.

About 8km from the tunnel portal the rush is on to finish the coal preparation plant where it will be washed and sorted before being trucked to the Midland Line. Solid Energy will transport the coal to Lyttelton under a new transport deal. Ditching the plan to ship coal up the coast from Greymouth to New Plymouth has proved unpopular locally, but it is acknowledged the $38 per tonne deal is a better one with less risk attached.

Whittall says contractors building the $20 million preparation plant are slightly behind schedule but he's confident it will be finished when the first coal starts blasting down slurry lines in July, two months behind a target set towards the end of last year.

Pike is dependent on water and is in the right place. Around 6m of rain a year falls at the summit of the Paparoa ranges and this will be captured to pump coal from the tunnel at high velocity down slurry pipelines to the preparation plant.

While big spending is evident above ground it's the tunnel that has gobbled up the budget and led to cost overruns.

Miners have used the drill and blast technique to bludgeon their way into the gneiss rock, so far using about 3 tonnes of explosive. It's been the fractured nature of the rock that has driven up costs because more work than expected has to be done on supporting and securing the tunnel walls and ceiling with fine mesh bolted into the rock, and in places lined with sprayed-on concrete 15cm thick.

In November the company advised it had run up $11 million more in additional tunnelling costs than previously advised and an additional $11 million contingency has been announced.

Miners have hit more water than expected and potentially explosive methane gas has also been found as the tunnel nears the Hawera fault, where more fractured rock is expected, before miners hit the final run to the coal seam.

Whittall is unperturbed by gas levels which he says fall well below thresholds. Vertical ventilation shafts will be bored down to the pit bottom and fans will pump air in.

The coal will initially be drilled out mainly by a $5 million road header machine equipped with tungsten tipped blades and later next year by hydraulic monitors. These are large water cannons that blast coal from the face with a jet pumping 9000 litres a minute - a garden-variety water blaster does about seven litres a minute.

Whittall, like others on the project, does not give the impression he's fazed by the technical challenges but he is worried about filling all of the 150 jobs when the mine is in full production.

"One of the key risks to the project is labour."

The company is now scrambling to recruit from the West Coast, expats in Australia, South Africa and in Germany where fields have closed and up to 30,000 miners will be laid off. Wages will start around $65,000 a year for underground workers, well below Australian rates.

Pike River is hovering just outside the NZX-50 and has arranged a $100 million funding package to finish the project, comprising of $60 million rights issue to shareholders and a $40 million bond issue to Liberty Harbor, part of Goldman Sachs Asset Management.

The issue document outlines other risks which still hang over the project including fluctuating coal prices, the impact of the high New Zealand dollar, development and operating cost increases, potential for lower than forecast coal production and variations to resource and reserve estimates.

In spite of this, Pike River Coal's chief executive Gordon Ward, a dabbler in endurance multisport events, has the air of someone in the home straight.

The 44-year-old has spent nearly a quarter of his life involved in the project, either through New Zealand Oil and Gas or directly.

He admits it has been a long haul.

"We'd have liked to have done it a bit quicker than this. We've got a third of the total project duration behind us and now's the good part where we'll be getting into production and mining

"Once we get some coal production I guess there'll be a sense of considerable satisfaction because what some people saw as being a challenging project has come to fruition at a time of very strong coal prices."

* Pike River Coal assisted with the Business Herald's travel costs to the project site.

THE OWNERS
Pike River Coal ownership:

* NZ Oil and Gas: 31 per cent
* Gujarat (India):10 per cent
* Saurashtra (India): 8.5 per cent
* Minorities: 7.9 per cent
* Initial public offering: 42.5 per cent

WHAT'S SO HOT ABOUT COAL?

Pike River's hard coking coal will be used in blast furnaces to make steel, primarily in Asia.

Mines general manager Peter Whittall says the qualities of the Pike product - high fluidity, low ash content and moderate sulphur content - are sought after by the coke-makers, those who blend a variety of coals to a recipe appropriate to the steel being produced.

Highly fluid coals are prized because they can be used in quantities as low as 10 per cent, to bind large quantities of other cheaper filler coals.

The price for coking coal and lower quality thermal coal will be set by April 1, after annual negotiations between miners from Australia and Japanese steel mills.

Citigroup global markets equity research forecasts out this month, which are being highlighted by Pike River Coal, paint a glowing outlook for coal, particularly the hard coking variety.

[COLIN]

"... drilling through rock 5 times harder than concrete.....!" No wonder it is taking so long.

Risk factors are still too high for me to contemplate direct investment in PRC, but happy to gain partially from any rewards via NZO 31% holding.

[the machine]

mailed the cheque today for 2,034 shares.

lousy exchange rate though @ 1.12.

would have brought more if an option to purchase in aud$ as its a hassle putting funds into the bank and the foreign exchange forms etc.
a simple aud$ cheque mailed off to computershare registry would be far easier

M

[tim23]

Hefty volme in the ordinaries & rights today, someone building a decent stake?

[RossT]

500,000 shares and 500,000 rights, just before a very positive 2008/09 contract price announcement perhaps ? It can't be far away.....

[trackers]

Saw this coming a mile off:

http://www.stuff.co.nz/4418047a13.html
Pike River Coal billed $1.67m for nixing shipping deal

NZPA | Wednesday, 27 February 2008


The termination of previous proposed transport arrangements cost West Coast hard coking mine developer Pike River Coal $1.67 million.
The company today reported a net deficit of $1.58 million for the six months to the end of December.
That was related to one-off staff recruitment, relocation and related costs, together with the $1.67m cost related to termination of Pike River's coal transport arrangements with the West Coast Coal Co, the company said.
In November Pike River announced it was no longer planning to ship its coal from Greymouth to Port Taranaki for export, favouring instead a rail route to Lyttelton Port.
Pike River shares listed on the stock exchange in July after an initial public offering at an issue price of $1 raised $85m and left former parent New Zealand Oil & Gas with a 31 per cent shareholding.
Pike River shares were trading at 99c around lunchtime today, up 1c from yesterday's close.
The company said it had invested a further $51.1m in the mine during the past half year.
Risks to the project had been significantly reduced with the mine access tunnel now 86 per cent built, and key infrastructure either finished or well advanced.

[Billy Boy]

500,000 shares and 500,000 rights, just before a very positive 2008/09 contract price announcement perhaps ? It can't be far away.....
Was an Off Market trade
So could have been an insto or the likes shifting to another acct or
subsiduary.
BB

[RossT]

Chinese steel producers urged to buy overseas coke and ore mines

http://tinyurl.com/34eppx

SHANGHAI, Feb 26 (Reuters) - The China Iron and Steel Association has urged its members to invest directly in overseas resources, as a hike in iron ore prices and constrained coking coal supplies threaten their bottom line.

"Chinese steelmakers should widen overseas cooperation, strengthen overseas mining investment and build up a secure, long-term base in iron ore and coking coal through controlling or joint stakes (in overseas mines)," CISA Secretary General Zhang Xiaogang said in a statement.

[Steve]

Chinese steel producers urged to buy overseas coke and ore mines

http://tinyurl.com/34eppx

SHANGHAI, Feb 26 (Reuters) - The China Iron and Steel Association has urged its members to invest directly in overseas resources, as a hike in iron ore prices and constrained coking coal supplies threaten their bottom line.

"Chinese steelmakers should widen overseas cooperation, strengthen overseas mining investment and build up a secure, long-term base in iron ore and coking coal through controlling or joint stakes (in overseas mines)," CISA Secretary General Zhang Xiaogang said in a statement.

Headline in September 2008: Chinese launch takeover for PRC!

You heard it here first... ;)

[COLIN]

Headline in September 2008: Chinese launch takeover for PRC!

You heard it here first... ;)

Too late, the Indians headed them off at the pass.

[dsurf]

Too late, the Indians headed them off at the pass.


50% partial takeover definately possible since NZO's holding is an "investment". Indians might also sell as long as they keep the supply agreements, which would leave 50%? availbale to a chinese purchaser.

[bermuda]

There is no doubt in my mind that the rights issue will be fully subscribed.

PRC are about to get a huge lift in coking coal prices...far in excess of my earlier 'high' projections.

To all fellow Sharetraders. Exercise your rights...we are in for quite a nice lift.

[dsurf]

There is no doubt in my mind that the rights issue will be fully subscribed.

PRC are about to get a huge lift in coking coal prices...far in excess of my earlier 'high' projections.

To all fellow Sharetraders. Exercise your rights...we are in for quite a nice lift.

I am going to subscribe / apply for more than my entitlement & keep til "first coal"

[sideline]

50% partial takeover definately possible since NZO's holding is an "investment". Indians might also sell as long as they keep the supply agreements, which would leave 50%? availbale to a chinese purchaser.

Seriously doubt the Indians would sell out to the Chinese. Read in some article a while ago that there
is some rivalry going on between them in securing resources for their fast growing economies.

Only reason the Chinese would want it is for the resources anyway, so supply agreements couldn't
be kept.

Indians must be happy that they got in early!

[digger]

Too late, the Indians headed them off at the pass.

Believe me after seeing what competition can do with Montana some years ago,it would do no harm to us shareholders if the Indians and the Chinese squared off. Yes the Indians were more on the ball to get in early. The Chinese were getting advise off DM and waiting until the chart said make a move,so in the meantime passed the parcle to the fortunate Indians.
Good lift today.

[Rabbi]

Looks like some big fish are swallowing up the head shares in huge gulps.

No material new information since the start of rights trading. The price of coking coal is still in an indicative range but it could end up at the top end which would make this stock fly.

Managed to get a few more rights yesterday at 8c on a hunch they were not going to retrace.

If you are going to panic, panic early I say.http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/images/icons/icon10.gifhttp://www.sharetrader.co.nz/images/icons/icon10.gifhttp://www.sharetrader.co.nz/images/icons/icon10.gif

[Billy Boy]

Yeah, looks like someone is looking for large quantity of stock and pushing up the price. Maybe an institution?
Yea but its all 'SP' off market stuff.
Could be setting up a holding coy in NZ and shifting the stock to there,
Coz if there's an off market seller then there's gotta be a off market buyer. :confused:
BB

[trackers]

What do you guys think NZO's strategy here is, with their 30%?

[sideline]

from Bloomberg:

BHP, Mitsubishi May Win 104% Jump in Coking Coal Contract Price

By Jesse Riseborough
Enlarge Image/Details

Feb. 28 (Bloomberg) -- BHP Billiton Ltd. and Mitsubishi Corp., owners of the world's largest coking coal exporter, may get twice as much for contract shipments of the steelmaking raw material because of shrinking global supply.

Prices for hard-coking coal for the year starting April 1 may surge to a record $200 a metric ton from $98 this contract year, according to the median forecast of seven analysts surveyed by Bloomberg. Talks between producers and Japanese customers may start ``in earnest'' next month, the Tex report said yesterday.

...........................

Cash prices for coking coal have surged as high as $270 a ton this month as shipments from Australia slowed, said ANZ's Pervan, who is expecting a price of $200 a ton. The nation accounted for 68 percent of global metallurgical coal supply in 2006, according to Citigroup Inc., more than five times the share of the U.S., the next biggest exporter.

``Coal prices are being forced higher as India and China compete for raw materials,'' JPMorgan Chase & Co. analysts said in a Jan. 29 report. ``Given the tightness in the international coal market, we expect the coal producers to shine.''

...................................

[Chippie]

Did you see this on TV3?
Greymouth coal mine steaming into production now prices are high

[Chippie]

Did you see this on TV3?
Greymouth coal mine steaming into production now prices are high

http://www.tv3.co.nz/Video/MarketUpdate/tabid/369/articleID/47576/cat/167/Default.aspx?articleID=47576#video

[shasta]

What do you guys think NZO's strategy here is, with their 30%?

Trackers

I'd like to think they would sell 20 - 24% (bare in mind NZO own 34.6% on a fully dilluted basis) to a conerstone shareholder,& retain a 10% block at least until production is fully ramped up.

The Pike River prospectus was interesting that NZO held 31% of the shares, but had options & convertible notes to take it to 34.6%.

I wonder how the additional "advance of funds" between NZO & PRC is to be accounted for?

From memory didn't NZO provide Pike's bankers with a "letter of comfort" up to $25m?

Am looking to buy into PRC closer to production, & also regretting selling out of NZO too soon!

[bermuda]

http://www.tv3.co.nz/Video/MarketUpdate/tabid/369/articleID/47576/cat/167/Default.aspx?articleID=47576#video
Thanks Chippie..
Excellent video and absolutely fantastic opportunity to make a mini fortune. This is another sentiment stock about to explode.
Thanks again

[sideline]

Thanks Chippie for pointing that video out to us. Excellent PR.

Watched the dance of the PRCRA's on the ASX - today was the last trading day for them over there.

Started out at 3 c , went all the way to 8 c, then dived to 1 c (quite a few chunks were traded at 1c) and ended up at 5c AU. Couldn't resist grabbing a few.

The gyrations of expiry day in a relatively thinly traded market..........

[the machine]

There is no doubt in my mind that the rights issue will be fully subscribed.

PRC are about to get a huge lift in coking coal prices...far in excess of my earlier 'high' projections.

To all fellow Sharetraders. Exercise your rights...we are in for quite a nice lift.

although did not subscribe to more shares than my rights, its looking like oversubsrcitions will be scaled back - maybe to zero, so in the end it may have been pointless subscribing for extra anyhow.

M

[manxman]

China's tight coal supply could further limit power
BEIJING: China's shortage of thermal coal could lead to a serious power shortage this year unless additional measures are taken, state media reported on Monday, citing an official from the China Electricity Council.

A surprising cold snap later disrupted coal transportation in many parts of China, leaving 40 GW, or 6 per cent of the country's total generating capacity offstream and another 11 per cent running with stocks below levels needed to cover three days of generation.


Yup
Chinese power supply is in crisis.
Japanese steel mills are in dire straits
And all over Yorkshire, bathtubs are turning white.

As Peter Whittall says - "If its black, they're buying it"

[troyvdh]

Dr Who ....you are smitten...I like that...over the years I have been "smitten".....be sure and be careful....

Hold PRC

[upside_umop]

Were we sent a letter to sign and send with check to take up the rights??
:o
When does it have to be done by?

[Robomo]

Were we sent a letter to sign and send with check to take up the rights??
:o
When does it have to be done by?

You should have received a letter from Pike River Coal Ltd "Entitlement and Acceptance Form" advising the number of shares you have and what your entitlement is.
The form and cheque must be received by Computershare Investor Services In Auckland by 5 pm 6 March 2008.
If you haven't got this form get in touch with your broker or Pike immediately - if you don't take up the offer your rights simply lapse.

[troyvdh]

Dr Who...dont get me wrong...in my 30 yrs of investing I have NEVER had ...(or considered) dosh in the bank as an investment.....its just when I see your unbridled enthusiasm...i think...I hope this joker doesnt make the mistakes i have...when Ive been "smitten".....

cheers

PS Ive been a member since 02....you since 07

[tim23]

Upside mop - you will have also had a postcard (I got mine Saturday) from the company reminding you the rights issue is due to close; did you actually own shares at the entitlement date?

[sideline]

Upside mop - you will have also had a postcard (I got mine Saturday) from the company reminding you the rights issue is due to close; did you actually own shares at the entitlement date?

Because if you didn't own the shares at entitlement but bought the rights on market you will have to
take care of exercising your rights yourself! Get in touch with Computershare, the registrars for
PRC. Payment and acceptance must be in by 5pm, Thursday.

[Sideshow Bob]

Posted and sent at the weekend. Went for a few extras, but don't expect them....

[digger]

Posted and sent at the weekend. Went for a few extras, but don't expect them....

posted and sent mine at the weekend. Went for a very few extra to round out my holding and i expect them.

[COLIN]

Have been majoring on NZO, to spread the risk.

[Rabbi]

Posted mine at the weekend and bought more rights on market. Don't expect to get all the shares I apply for. There is an off chance I suppose that one of the BIG holders might let their rights lapse but I'm not holding my breath.

[Sumnerned]

SS and Digger

I also went for extras and was hoping someone on this thread would be able to say whether to expect them or not.

I presume, not really sure why, that the big holders, ie the Indians and NZO, won't go for extras. Is the source of extras only the shortfall on applications to convert rights, or are there more from some other source?

Suspect that Colin may be doing the right thing, NZO is past first oil now, Pike still a bit of a risk. But, given that there'll be some dilution impact on price, it's still nice to get some 104c shares for 90c.

[dsurf]

SS and Digger

I also went for extras and was hoping someone on this thread would be able to say whether to expect them or not.

I presume, not really sure why, that the big holders, ie the Indians and NZO, won't go for extras. Is the source of extras only the shortfall on applications to convert rights, or are there more from some other source?

Suspect that Colin may be doing the right thing, NZO is past first oil now, Pike still a bit of a risk. But, given that there'll be some dilution impact on price, it's still nice to get some 104c shares for 90c.

The big holders (indians, NZO) have signalled that they will take up their holding by "underwriting their share, ie they definately will.

the source of extras only the shortfall on applications to convert rights - ie do not expect too many people let slip the chance to buy more at 90C

[Robomo]

Estimated contract price for hard coking coal continues to be around the $200 mark according to Bloombergs....
"Contract prices for iron ore in the year starting April 1 have so far increased by as much as 71 percent, the bureau said. Prices for hard-coking coal in the year starting April 1 may surge to a record $200 a metric ton from $98 a ton this contract year, a Bloomberg survey last month showed. Spot prices for thermal coal and coking coal have also climbed to records this year after flooding at mines in Australia and snowstorms in China".
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601080&sid=aEDIMV__00N0&refer=asia

[bermuda]

Estimated contract price for hard coking coal continues to be around the $200 mark according to Bloombergs....
"Contract prices for iron ore in the year starting April 1 have so far increased by as much as 71 percent, the bureau said. Prices for hard-coking coal in the year starting April 1 may surge to a record $200 a metric ton from $98 a ton this contract year, a Bloomberg survey last month showed. Spot prices for thermal coal and coking coal have also climbed to records this year after flooding at mines in Australia and snowstorms in China".
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601080&sid=aEDIMV__00N0&refer=asia

I reckon when the contract is finalised that this will really spark the PRC sp...and give a wee boost to NZO.

[Sumnerned]

Will PRC now be in the NZX 50? It's capitalisation must exceed that of some existing NZX50 members.

[the machine]

Will PRC now be in the NZX 50? It's capitalisation must exceed that of some existing NZX50 members.


Market cap well and truely exceeds some existing NZX50 and has for some time, but
might have to wait for another 6 months or so before included in the NZX50, after project derisked and well after first coal.

Actually may skip top 50 and go straight into top 40, once included.

M

[the machine]

actually they rank at about #42 now, if were included in the index.

M

[Sumnerned]

Thanks for the excellent info m/c. Doc, you and I are thinking on similar lines; looking at trades in recent times one gets a feeling some big players are already buying.

[Lion]

Will PRC now be in the NZX 50?.

Don't forget the market cap counts only freely tradeable shares, so I'd think that shares held by NZOG and the 2 Indian companies, totalling somewhere round 50%, wouldn't be included.

[Sumnerned]

Thanks Lion

[Robomo]

Estimated contract prices are looking more and more like telephone numbers - now Merrill Lynch in Australia are talking contract prices of $300 per tonne, following on from spot prices of $400 per tonne. Will the madness ever end?
http://news.theage.com.au/coking-coal-prices-soaring-on-supply-woe/20080307-1xsh.html

[ratkin]

Talk of a commodity bubble , could end in tears

[tim23]

Why do you think that?

[ratkin]

I dont really, did read an article today somewhere that reckoned the flight from equities to commodities was being way over done and was pushing up the price of commodities way too high . Was more the metals though

[AMR]

Nothing wrong with that as long as you are willing to dump the stock soon after it peaks!

[AMR]

I'm not picking peaks or bottoms : I'm getting out soon after the peak when it is clear from a technical analysis standpoint that the trend has changed.

[Nitaa]

With coking coal prices going gang busters it sets a dangerous path for the short term future. We will have a meltdown in construction that is for sure if coal prices continue their merry way.

[Sumnerned]

Malcolm and Nita, I reckon in some ways you're both onto it.

What we are seeing, and it's been forecast for years by some, is the global devaluation of paper currency. Our present monetary system relies on us collectively having trust in bankers. Well.........who does anymore? Some experts reckon there's plenty of, say, gold or nickel around, but the prices have skyrocketed.

Of course there will be many distortions along the way. High interest currencies like NZ and Aus will have some sort of protection, but in the short term the Japanese, who by and large are very cautious, will probably repatriate huge quantities of carry trade money as uncertainties increase. Japan would be in very serious trouble if it didn't have huge overseas investments, as it has relatively few commodity resources.

Some countries, probably China among them, will try subsidies and/or price controls.

NZ, with the likes of PRC and continuing energy discoveries, plus food commodities, should do much better than average, but I'm afraid it may be a long and bumpy ride.

[the machine]

any thoughts if prc will be participating in spot sales once full production is achieved after july 2009?

M

[Scuffer]

Everything depends on a steady supply chain from face to furnace not everything is under PRC control don't get too excited yet lots of variables coming into play, mark my words,I'm not saying it won't happen it will, just a lot more water to go under the bridge yet.

[RossT]

Merril Lynch raise contract forecast to US$300 /tn.


http://www.resourceinvestor.com/pebble.asp?relid=41091

[Scuffer]

Black gold its worth a fortune but we still need the staff to get it out and deliver it to the customer, does anyone know how the PRC recruitment drive is going?

[Nitaa]

wheat, coffeebeans, oil. gold, copper, etc etc all on record highs what a depression we are heading for( dur):D Basically you are correct. At some point the bubble will burst. For the future, the soonwr the better. As for an investor in these commodities, short term gains will be nothing short of sensational..

Since oil is related to about everything then the side affect will result in inflation. Gold or other similar commodities not so much as the world to survive doesnt depend on it. If gold was to go up 10 times the value as it is now it will have very little impact on me. The opposite will definately happen with oil.

Coking coal as i mentioned WILL in the next couple of years create havoc in the construction sector. The simple reason for this is construction companies when tendering for jobs operate on quite small margins (plenty of competition). Steel prices rocket up pushing their costs over the break even point therefor globably you will see many incomplete buildings.

Im not being a doomsdayer as life goes on and i am simply calling it as i see it.

Let me you if your opinion and differs why. I am very interested.

[Unicorn]

Basically you are correct. At some point the bubble will burst. For the future, the sooner the better. As for an investor in these commodities, short term gains will be nothing short of sensational.

I do not think $200 a ton and above is good for PRC. To me it indicates that the resources bubble, which is driven by resource futures gambling rather than fundamentals of supply and demand, is close to bursting. I expect sales in the US consumer market will be a lot lower in 12 months than they are now, and I doubt that China and India will sustain demand for steel at current levels without the US market to sell into.

PRC is scheduled to produce 200,000 tons in the year to June 2009. It is shipped out at about 50,000 tons per ship. A fair bit will go into the supply chain - at the plant, at the rail siding, and at the port. So it looks like 3 shipments is all that can be expected to June 2009. With production ramping up as new roadways are opened up in the seam, that looks like one shipment to March 2009, and two shipments the following quarter. So only one shipment might be expected to take advantage of the coking coal price currently being negotiated. With the uncertainties around startup I imagine that the initial production is more likely to be sold on the spot market than to contract.

It would be fantastic for PRC to get a full year or two in with sales at $200+, but I think the chances of that happening are fairly remote. Not much the company can do about it, as like many of us they will probably end up suffering from the fallout after the global housing bubble and the global resources bubble have been and gone.

[dsurf]

LONDON (Reuters) - Global miner Rio Tinto (RIO.L: Quote, Profile, Research)(RIO.AX: Quote, Profile, Research) expects long-term coal supply contract prices to remain strong in 2009-2011 because lack of infrastructure will restrain supply growth for another few years, energy division chief executive officer Preston Chiaro said on Tuesday.

"The extremely high prices we've seen recently for both thermal coal and coking coal have been driven by the supply/demand imbalance. Coal supply/demand tightness won't ease for many years due to limited infrastructure and strong demand," he told the Reuters Global Mining Summit.

Chinese demand for coking coal and steam coal will also help keep prices high, he said. "Can infrastructure expand faster than Chinese demand can grow? That's the $65,000 question and nobody can answer it yet."

China's production and demand has been growing at around 12-13 pct a year. China's coal production last year was around 2.7 billion tonnes, about half of the world's coal output, he said, but its demand is keeping pace.

Rio has latent coal production capacity in Australia in New South Wales and Queensland which the company cannot bring on because of a lack of rail and port space, he said.

ABBOTTS POINT DEAL

Rio on Monday signed a 10-year take-or-pay contract for 16 million tonnes a year export capacity at Abbotts Point port in Queensland, he said.

Output from Rio's Blair Atholl mine and Claremont projected mine will be exported from Abbotts Point.

Abbotts Point is one of the several Australian coal ports which are undergoing expansions to be complete in around 2010.

Chiaro would not comment on reports that Rio is asking $135.00 a tonne free-on-board for thermal coal 2008/2009 to Japan, up from $55.65 last year.

"We've heard the same reports," he said, smiling. "I can say that spot prices are extremely high -- well in excess of $100.00 a tonne FOB for thermal and we've heard coking coal sold recently into Asia at $330.00 a tonne CIF."

Infrastructure constraints will keep prices strong but the recent surge in prices was also due to severe weather in Australia which cut at least 7 million tonnes from this year's exports, he said.

"We declared force majeure due to floods but all of our mines in Queensland are up and running now," he said. Water is still being pumped out of the Hail Creek coking coal mine but the secondary pit is being mined, he said.

There has been one benefit from the floods, he said. Rio has used all of its port and rail allocation and has also used some allocation which its competitors were unable to use, to sell some spot coal.

Rio is still negotiating 2008/2009 term supply contracts with its customers in Japan, Korea and Taiwan, he said.

Rio is also looking at selling U.S. Powder River Basin coal, traditionally a domestic coal, to Asia. "We've done spot before but now we're looking at sales opportunities of PRB coal, likely shipped from the Northwest or possibly Canada," he said.

SOUTH AFRICA

Rio has been looking for years at coal opportunities in Southern Africa, he said. Last month Rio announced the discovery of a large coal deposit in Chapudi in the Limpopo province to the north of South Africa.

"We said at the time the deposit contained around 1 billion tonnes but we now think it's considerably more than that, mostly domestic-grade coal for power production, not export," he said.

"We'd very much like to see a power plant built there by Eskom and we've been in discussions with Eskom," he said.

Chapudi contains some coking coal but it is not currently viable, he said.

Asked about the progress of the Coega aluminum smelter project, to be built in South Africa's Cape region, Chiaro said Rio has a contract for power supply from Eskom, from the national grid, from the end of 2010.

"We don't just need power, we need affordable power for an aluminum smelter. If Eskom decides to change in some way, then we will change in some way," he said.

[COLIN]

Rights issue oversubscribed by 6%, thus no need to resort to underwriters. Some 2000 holders applied for more. Not a bad outcome.

[The BOWMAN]

Got all the extra I applied for. It was almost 30% extra of my entitlement. Should have asked for more for some quick profit.

[Wilkins_Micawber]

Got all the extra I applied for. It was almost 30% extra of my entitlement. Should have asked for more for some quick profit.

Looking at computershare website (and if I've got my figures right) I got about 55% more than my entitlement - but then I did apply for HEAPS extra :o - just wish I'd got all of them. Will have to settle for an easy few $$$s :) (and a large refund cheque due back :rolleyes:

[troyvdh]

I got 48.7 % of what I wanted.I recall reading that the original holding had a bearing.

Ignore above....calculated it wrong.

[sideline]

Good progress has been made in tunnelling last week.
Another 3 to 4 weeks and the pit bottom should be finished.
Then the drive for the coal starts in earnest

[Chippie]

High prices help as Pike mines new seam
http://www.stuff.co.nz/4438335a13.html

Good article in the Domion today

[COLIN]

High prices help as Pike mines new seam
http://www.stuff.co.nz/4438335a13.html

Good article in the Domion today

"Coy expects increase from 2.3m to 2.8m tonnes for year from July" Sounds like an encouraging reforecast - or have we heard this already? (I don't follow PRC all that closely, I must admit).

[KS]

The expected increase applies to Solid Energy.

"Solid Energy chief operations officer Barry Bragg said coal prices were still being negotiated, and would not kick in till June.
...
The company expects to increase its coal exports from 2.3 million tonnes to 2.8 million tonnes for the year from July, Mr Bragg said."

PRC expect 200000 tonnes in their first year of production, then 1 million tonnes per year.

[Balance]

The expected increase applies to Solid Energy.

"Solid Energy chief operations officer Barry Bragg said coal prices were still being negotiated, and would not kick in till June.
...
The company expects to increase its coal exports from 2.3 million tonnes to 2.8 million tonnes for the year from July, Mr Bragg said."

PRC expect 200000 tonnes in their first year of production, then 1 million tonnes per year.

If you believe that PRC can produce and export 1m tonnes a year - then buy it. Because it will equate a profit of more than $70m a year. The company is the cheapest buy in NZ's history.

[Robomo]

The Asia Business Review today has published a comprehensive overview of the immediate future of hard coking coal prices - spot and contract. Figures being quaoted from US$250 - $300 per tonne. Spot prices have been as high as $400.
http://www.abnnewswire.net/press/en/49046/Australasian-Investment-Review.html

[bermuda]

The Asia Business Review today has published a comprehensive overview of the immediate future of hard coking coal prices - spot and contract. Figures being quaoted from US$250 - $300 per tonne. Spot prices have been as high as $400.
http://www.abnnewswire.net/press/en/49046/Australasian-Investment-Review.html

Thanks Robomo. Staggering isnt it yet no one seems to believe PRC will actually produce.

PRC would have to be one of the best buys around. I said $1.60 by year end but the way things are going this could be well surpassed.

Everyone is too timid.,but the apples are there for the picking.

[POSSUM THE CAT]

DR Who A Pup when it grows up goes Woof Woof and is called a Dog

[Rabbi]

The $1m tonnes in the second year is ambitious and some pundits believe it will be hard to achieve.

What you pay for the stock today is a reflection of a number of uncertainties that need to be dispelled in the minds of investors before any re-rating occurs.

Once we hear that the coal is sliding down the flumes to the preparation plant for export then we might see some significant upside.

But until then...hang onto your hats.

[Sideshow Bob]

Got my full allocation, plus all the extra's I went for.

[bermuda]

Got my full allocation, plus all the extra's I went for.

You wont reget it Bob. This is as good as a 6 inch putt.
$1.60 by Christmas.

[QOH]

Hope you're right Bermuda. A 6 inch putt isn't always a giveme for me.

[Hoop]

me neither.

It brings back bad memories:(:( when I had the yipps..used to agonise over those 6 inch ...:o:o

[bermuda]

Hope you're right Bermuda. A 6 inch putt isn't always a giveme for me.

Just call it a backhander!

Wonder what the media will think of the new coking coal price. Far out

[Hoop]

Can someone tell me if this sudden shareprice weakness is due to realisation of profits from the excising of the rights or just a simple normal lack of buyer demand.
Magic word...please.:)

Also noticed it has dropped below the MacDunk indicator (MA30) again.:(

[bermuda]

Can someone tell me if this sudden shareprice weakness is due to realisation of profits from the excising of the rights or just a simple normal lack of buyer demand.
Magic word...please.:)

Also noticed it has dropped below the MacDunk indicator (MA30) again.:(

Wouldnt even worry about it mate. Just wait for the coking coal price and Momoho.

[Steve]

Also noticed it has dropped below the MacDunk indicator (MA30) again.:(

I thought that the MacDunk MA30 indicator was better used with NZO?!

[dsurf]

If you mention the macd ma30 - it is a contrarian signal! buy now it will soon be crossed!

[Hoop]

I thought that the MacDunk MA30 indicator was better used with NZO?!

Steve....I personally treat individual indicators in isolation with caution. I normally become more relaxed when several indicators start firing together. With only 6 months of chart data, it seems the MA30 indicator is working good enough to offer some merit as an alert signal....so far.

I don't recommend relying on just one indicator, but the MA30 is abundant on most free charts, so I personally call it a quick indicator (as in quick and easy)

I look at Direct Brokering charts often as the first port of call if I wonder which way a stock is moving. The MA30 is in your face on the DB charts, so amongst other things, it alerts me to dig a little deeper using more advanced charts with other TA resources if need be. I haven't dug deeper in this case as I'm happy holding at the moment. If more sell signals start firing then maybe.....

Another quick indicator is the trendline (which is still intact).

PRC is in my long term investment strategy at the moment.

Indicators, such as MA30, seems to work with various degrees of success, behaving with some stocks better than others...........whether MA30 (with PRC) behaves similar to NZO only time will tell.....

Disc: NZO, PRC, 90% cash

[Sideshow Bob]

You wont reget it Bob. This is as good as a 6 inch putt.
$1.60 by Christmas.


Must say, I've missed the odd 6 inch putt, but luckily not when important!

Having a good rekkie around the website this afternoon (while working hard at work), and tunnel almost at 2,000m - expect already there now. Not far to go.....

There is also a recent presentation from the FNZ presentation yesterday:

http://www.pike.co.nz/shareholder-section/stock-exchange-announcements/stock-announcements-2008/FNZ_Conference_18_March_2008.pdf

I'd also be interested in more recent analyst reports also, with more recent takes on valuations and risk levels.

[bermuda]

Steve....I personally treat individual indicators in isolation with caution. I normally become more relaxed when several indicators start firing together. With only 6 months of chart data, it seems the MA30 indicator is working good enough to offer some merit as an alert signal....so far.

I don't recommend relying on just one indicator, but the MA30 is abundant on most free charts, so I personally call it a quick indicator (as in quick and easy)

I look at Direct Brokering charts often as the first port of call if I wonder which way a stock is moving. The MA30 is in your face on the DB charts, so amongst other things, it alerts me to dig a little deeper using more advanced charts with other TA resources if need be. I haven't dug deeper in this case as I'm happy holding at the moment. If more sell signals start firing then maybe.....

Another quick indicator is the trendline (which is still intact).

n my long term investment strategy at the moment.

Indicators, such as MA30, seems to work with various degrees of success, behaving with some stocks better than others...........whether MA30 (with PRC) behaves similar to NZO only time will tell.....

Disc: NZO, PRC, 90% cash

Hi Hoop,
Had a game of golf with a guy who knew the iron ore and bauxite business backwards.Knew a lot about coal too.

The coal mines in Queensland have been flooded so badly it is going to take them 3 months, yes 3 months , to pump the water out and 3 months to start up again.This is disastrous.

He predicted a coking coal price of $300 per tonne.

Time to load up guys.

Peter Whittall promised me he would get the coal out of the tunnel.

This is an outstanding opportunity to have all sharetrader subsribers to make some real easy dosh. Like $1.60 plus end year.

[AMR]

A major sell signal would be two consecutive closes below resistance at 95c. Seems unlikely. Some very strong resistance at 95c, I plan to pick some up again if it falls there.

[tim23]

I got 1949/2000 I applied for including my allocation?

[RossT]

Canadians get $225 INTERIM contract price

until full contract negotiations are completed, if negotiations run past April 1.
Xstrata look to be holding firm on $300 as final contract price.
All looking good for producers really!

http://tinyurl.com/2j6zw2

[Steve]

The tunnel is now 2,000m in and not a whisper today! Shareprice down 2c in a weak market...

[zac]

Ann. out late yeaterday

PIKE TUNNEL REACHES 2,000 METRE POINT

Pike River Coal Limited advises that the tunnel being driven in hard rock to
provide access to its high quality premium hard coking coal deposit, has
today hit the 2,000 metre point. A further 300 metres of tunnelling is
required before the coal seam will be intersected, which is on track for July
2008.

Good progress is also being made in developing pit bottom on the eastern side
of the Hawera fault with 365 metres (63%) of the excavation complete in that
area. These pit bottom works will be largely completed before the tunnel is
pushed forward through the fault to the coal seam. Attached is a chart
showing the work being undertaken in this regard.

The coal preparation plant is now more than 65% complete and the linked coal
conveyors from the plant to the planned stockpile areas have been installed
in the past week.

Chief Executive Gordon Ward said "The Pike mine development is proceeding
well on all fronts. The tunnel is 87% complete and the infrastructure and
mining equipment necessary for first coal production is coming together as
planned".

A major recruitment drive is underway by Pike River to employ 45 staff prior
to first coal production.

[Steve]

Ann. out late yeaterday

PIKE TUNNEL REACHES 2,000 METRE POINT

Better to repeat it 18 hours later, than not at all, huh Zac?! ;)

[Scuffer]

Good luck to them getting qualified staff they will need it unless they start to pay above the going rate good people are as rare as and most companies are in damage control just trying to keep them.

[baxter]

Scuffer... A Westport Mine is on the point of closing, some of their workers could be looking for more security, better pay. Coasters don't like leaving the Coast.

[the machine]

seemed to employ the management team ok, so the extra 45 workers will hopefully follow suit.

M

[Scuffer]

Thats good workers in abundance but you can find managers anywhere its the guys that do the real work that are thin on the ground, I know I just wish the company I'm involved with could get them and keep the ones they have.:(

[bermuda]

Thats good workers in abundance but you can find managers anywhere its the guys that do the real work that are thin on the ground, I know I just wish the company I'm involved with could get them and keep the ones they have.:(

Scuffer. I am quite sure everything will be fine and dandy. We are talking about an international project here, run by International experience.

[Scuffer]

There are lots of chiefs and wannabe chiefs its the indians everyone is looking for, its an international problem.

[bermuda]

There are lots of chiefs and wannabe chiefs its the indians everyone is looking for, its an international problem.

Scuffer, as I said everythings going to be fine and dandy. A crate of bourbon that PRC is $NZ1.60 by Xmas.

Ps I remember having two bets with posters who reckoned Maari would be on stream before Tui. Havent seen the 2 x dozen red yet. I know this is different but I stand by my bet. The bourbon wil be will be delivered.

The BIG depression might hurt me but I will still deliver.

[tim23]

Scuffer - if PRC pay ok they then should be ok, I think the market is tight but $ will persuade people to move between employers

[Scuffer]

Scuffer - if PRC pay ok they then should be ok, I think the market is tight but $ will persuade people to move between employers
You hit the nail on the head Tim its all about the money tradesmen are as rare as rocking horse doo doo and without them you need a lot of managers willing to get their hands dirty and then it will still be a long drawn out cock up.

[777]

From stuff.co.nz

Greenpeace attempts to blockade coal ship
5:47PM Tuesday March 25, 2008
By Jarrod Booker


The Rainbow Warrior.

Greenpeace protesters have used their Rainbow Warrior flagship in a bid to blockade a huge bulk carrier in Lyttelton Harbour.

The Rainbow Warrior has anchored in front of the 225m ship, Hellenic Sea, which is loaded with 60,000 tonnes of coal bound for export from the state owned Solid Energy mining company.

The ship was due to depart this evening.

Three Greenpeace crew have managed to clamber on to the hull of the vessel by travelling in an inflatable boat.

The three climbers are attempting to unfurl a banner on the vessel which will say "Target climate change" in reference to their national campaign against global warming.

Several police vessels are lined up on the dock and along with several officers at least two police officers have gone onboard the Rainbow Warrior.

Carmen Gravatt campaign manager for the Rainbow Warrior said the three who had made it onto the vessel understood they could well be arrested but felt strongly enough about climate change that they were prepared for that.





Greenpeace has called on the Government to introduce stricter measures to halt climate change, including putting a cap on coal exports, halting the expansion of coal mining and strengthening the emissions trading scheme to discourage burning of coal in New Zealand.

- With NZPA

[Chippie]

What a joke. Greenpeace targeting NZ coal exports to make a political statement. If they had any brains/ balls they would be into Australian exporters or else China for burning all the coal (but no, they think NZ exporters create world demand :))

[temuk]

They should get on the rainbow warrior with a hammer and see what
it made of!

[Steve]

What a joke. Greenpeace targeting NZ coal exports to make a political statement. If they had any brains/ balls they would be into Australian exporters or else China for burning all the coal (but no, they think NZ exporters create world demand :))

No, they realise that NZ is a soft touch for protesting, compared to China where they could be imprisoned for protesting...

[COLIN]

They should get on the rainbow warrior with a hammer and see what
it made of!

Probably made of steel which originated from China - produced in a mill fired by coal!