Ag. commodities

[Mick100]

With an increasing acerage of the world's arable land being used to grow bio fuel crops there's a bullish case for ag commodities.
There is going to be a huge increase in the acerage of corn planted this year in the US (for ethanol production) which means that less acerage of other crops, such as cotton, will be planted.

Sugar is another crop used to produce enthanol - far more efficently than corn. Brazil is the world's number one sugar producer - they have recently struck a deal to export enthanol to Japan.

Most of the world's cattle, pigs and poutry are grain fed.
I think ag commodities are about to join the commody bull market which has so far beeen led, since 2001, by the base metals.

I'm currently holding Australian agricultural company - AAC, namoi cotton - NAM, and PG Wrightson - PGW (NZX).
.

[MrDevine]

Agree, George Soros has talked about the coming boom in ag commodities, trouble is there isn't much exposure unless you want to buy 'futures'. I have looked at AAC. PGW I used to hold however they've sunk, new moves into Argentina might pay dividends?

Mr D

[Mick100]

PGW may be worth a second look at these levels - I doubt the shareprice will go much lower
With the exception of lamb, NZ farmers are recieving good prices for thier produce at the moment. If the NZD continues falling in value then these price increases will be magnified.

PS, I trade options on futures - currently have long open positions in corn, soybean oil, coffee, sugar, cotton and orange juice.
,

[duncan macgregor]

quote:Originally posted by Mick100

PGW may be worth a second look at these levels - I doubt the shareprice will go much lower
With the exception of lamb, NZ farmers are recieving good prices for thier produce at the moment. If the NZD continues falling in value then these price increases will be magnified.

PS, I trade options on futures - currently have long open positions in corn, soybean oil, coffee, sugar, cotton and orange juice.
,
MICK, you are completely wrong with PGW. The NZ farmers are doing a starve right now. They are spending the minimum over the counter at PGW. The reason for the starve is the high KIWI dollar. If the dollar goes down PGW sp will go up. The dollar is headed in the wrong direction, the sp will continue to go down. How far it goes down depends on the value of the dollar. I say down another 10c unless we see changes in farmers fortunes. Incidentely the sp was over $2-30 now struggling above $1-50 why are you holding?.macdunk

[skinny]

Yeah I've been thinking about this for a while and came to the conclusion as I own a NZ house I'm already long ag. commodities! The NZD cycle usually moves in step with the world price of its agriculturally based commodity basket - they're near 30 years highs at the moment and the NZD is also near highs against most other currencies. My favourite commodity play, as has been the case for the past three years, is lead

[Mick100]

Demand for Corn Driving Up Meat Prices
Friday March 9, 11:47 am ET
By Libby Quaid, AP Food and Farm Writer
Strong Demand for Corn From Ethanol Plants Is Driving Up the Cost of Livestock


WASHINGTON (AP) -- Strong demand for corn from ethanol plants is driving up the cost of livestock and will raise prices for beef, pork and chicken, the Agriculture Department said Friday.
Meat and poultry production will fall as producers face higher feed costs, the department said in its monthly crop report. Ethanol fuel, which is blended with gasoline, is consuming 20 percent of last year's corn crop and is expected to gobble up more than 25 percent of this year's crop.

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The price of corn, the main feed for livestock, has driven the cost of feeding chickens up 40 percent, according to the National Chicken Council. The council says that chicken, the most popular meat with consumers, will soon cost more at the grocery store. The industry worries the competition from ethanol could cause a shortage of corn.

The average price of corn, unchanged from last month, is $3.20 a bushel, up from $2 last year.

While chicken producer Tyson Foods Inc. posted its first profitable quarter in a year Jan. 29, executives warned that a dramatic rise in feed costs will raise chicken prices.

"Companies will be forced to pass along rising costs to their customers, meaning consumers will pay significantly more for food," Chief Executive Dick Bond said.

Deputy Agriculture Secretary Chuck Conner said USDA is keeping an eye on corn supply and demand. Demand likely will prompt farmers to plant more acres in corn, he said.

"We do have confidence in the marketplace's ability to react," Conner said. "We believe producers are seeing the market saying, `I need more corn, not only for ethanol, but for our feed needs in this country.'"

The department will issue planting predictions later this month.

For soybeans, analysts said prices are averaging $6.30 a bushel, up from last month's average of $6.20. Last year's price was $5.66. Wheat prices are averaging $4.25 a bushel, unchanged from last month and up from $3.42 last year.

Also in the crop report, the department updated the citrus forecast to include the effects of a January freeze on California oranges. The California crop will be 39 percent smaller than last year, and combined with freezes that are expected to reduce the Florida crop, the nation's crop is expected to be 18 percent smaller than last season.

Shares of Archer Daniels Midland Co., the country's biggest ethanol producer, fell 36 cents to $34.45 in morning trading on the New York Stock Exchange. Shares of Tyson fell 6 cents to $17.99.

[duncan macgregor]

We all know this MICK the price of grain etc etc. The flow on to the ASX and the NZX range of farming companies wont have an effect for this year on share prices. You are 12 months in front of the market. The AUSTRALIAN drought takes care of most of the advantage on that side of the tasman for the remainder of the year. On the NZ side, we have a govt that throws a bucket of cold water over farm expectations the moment the dollar dares to drop. This will all change, but not this year. Worth keeping an eye on, but not worth investing until it turns. The farm service companies are finding it tough right now, but not as bad as the farmers, until that changes its not worth even thinking about it. MACDUNK

[Mick100]

KEVIN KERR
Got juice?
Commentary: Orange juice, a risky but hot commodity
PrintE-mailDisable live quotesRSSDigg itDel.icio.usBy Kevin Kerr, MarketWatch
Last Update: 11:55 AM ET Mar 8, 2007


NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- One market that you can always count on as a good source of weather-based action is orange juice. It often springs to mind when people think of the "wild and wooly" futures markets. It's right up there with pork bellies in the folklore department.
In reality, OJ futures can be an incredibly lucrative market to trade -- if an investor knows how to play it.
Not getting squeezed
The commodities markets are not for the faint of heart, but then again none of the markets are lately. For the investor who wants to get involved in the commodities markets, OJ can be a good place to start -- using extreme caution however.
One cardinal rule that I always teach my clients and readers is that these markets are not for capital that is simply earmarked "high risk and fully disposable." It must be truly disposable.
In other words, you could take this cash and put it in the garbage disposal or fireplace and not have to change your lifestyle. At the most, perhaps a little discomfort, like after eating a big meal -- but if you're reaching for the Bromo, this is probably not for you.
Does that mean that these aren't good investments? Absolutely not. It means that risk capital needs to be just that. Risk often involves losses even if you finish with profits at the end. Once you've established that you're truly using risk capital, then you are ready to proceed.
Why juice and why now?
Florida's orange crop and orange industry has been decimated over the last several years and the situation is getting worse. It may never get better. Hurricanes ravaged the citrus groves and wiped out whole areas of growers. Citrus diseases, spread by wind from hurricanes, have taken a toll too and still are. Citrus canker has eaten away many viable groves and damaged others.
Some growers have simply given up and sold their land to aggressive real estate developers. Those are trees that will never come back on line; a permanent loss.
Another major problem is that migrant workers, once abundant and a staple to the harvesting industry are now scarce. The Immigration and Naturalization Service and Homeland Security crackdowns have intimidated workers and led to many of them fleeing. The hurricanes have done the same thing. Growers are beside themselves when they have oranges on the trees, literally money growing on trees, and nobody to pick them. Usually the fruit falls to the ground and rots.
Last year, OJ prices surged as the crop has gotten smaller and smaller. The picture is no brighter for 2007. Citrus disease is till spreading and predictions for an active hurricane season due to La Nina have growers nervous and exhausted. Not to mention the fact that the freakishly warm weather in the early part of winter gave rise to new buds blooming on trees early in Florida. The recent late cold snap sent temps in Florida's growing region down into the 20's some nights. The delicate buds and the current oranges on the tress waiting to be picked have certainly had damage. The citrus grower organizations have been saying that there was no damage, but it seems highly unlikely.
Numbers game
The United States Department of Agriculture tracks all the crops in the U.S. and this Friday it will release its latest crop production report for OJ. Estimates are for the number to come in lower than the 140 million 90 lbs. boxes estimated by the USDA. Some expectations are for around 5 million to 7 million less. I think it's a lot lower, around 10 million to15 million -- maybe more.
If the report will actually reflect that, it's hard to tell. Government numbers often leave more questions than answers.
One thing is certain: Florida's crops have been severely impacted and the citrus industry is struggling. Much of the crop that was relied on in the past is simply gone and never to return. The hard freeze for citrus in California, while no dire

[Mick100]

Grains Still Rallying Despite Broad Commodities Volatility

By Jon A. Nones
10 Mar 2007 at 03:56 PM GMT-05:00


St. LOUIS (ResourceInvestor.com) -- In its monthly crop report, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) said on Friday that strong demand for corn from ethanol plants is driving up the cost of livestock and will raise prices for beef, pork and chicken. Corn prices have been rising rapidly since September 2006.

The USDA said U.S. beef output would dip by 65 million pounds and chicken by 125 million pounds, with total red meat and poultry production forecast at 90.68 billion pounds. Producers had sent fewer animals to slaughter, because feed prices had increased along with those of corn, soybean and wheat.




Today, April live cattle contracts are trading up .28 cent to $1.0130 a pound on CBOT, about 7 cents higher from the start of the year. April feeder cattle is up .43 cent at $1.0715, about 10 cents higher for the year. April lean hogs rose .10 cent to 67.85 cents a pound, up about 7 cents, while May pork bellies rose 1.35 cents to $1.0775 a pound, up 16 cents since January.

However, corn and soybeans are the success stories among commodities so far this year, up more than 15% and 10%, respectively since January.

Although May corn fell 4 cents to $4.17 1/4 a bushel today, prices moved as high as $4.50 a bushel in February, and have risen 80% from early September 2006.

Ethanol fuel is consuming 20% of last year's corn crop and is expected to gobble up more than 25% of this year's crop. This is up drastically from 5% in 2004 and 6% in 2005.

U.S. ending stocks to usage ratio for the 2006/2007 crop year is pegged at 10.2%, the 4th lowest on record.

U.S. ethanol production is up almost 30% over last year with new production facilities coming online regularly. There are over 100 ethanol plants in operation at present in the U.S., but 40 more are in the making. Right now, there are 900 gas stations selling 85% ethanol (E85).

Just today, U.S. President George W. Bush signed an agreement with Brazil on ethanol as a means of boosting alternative fuels production in the Americas.

Looking at soybeans, which are used in some biodiesel, price have risen 44% since early September 2006. The contracts are now priced at $7.59 1/6 a bushel, after breaching $8.00 a bushel in February.

According to the DOA Farm Service Agency, one bushel of soybeans yields approximately 1.4 gallons of biodiesel. Soybeans contain about 20% oil, so it takes almost 7.3 pounds of soybean oil to produce a gallon of biodiesel.

In 2005, 75 million gallons of biodiesel were produced using 547.5 million pounds of vegetable oil. Analysts estimated that production would double in 2006, with 150 million gallons produced utilizing 1.1 billion pounds of vegetable oil.

Presently we have 53 biodiesel plants operating, with 38 more under construction and 22 additional plants being planned. The U.S. Department of Energy goal is to replace 30% of transportation fuels with biofuels by 2030.

Wheat prices have been volatile this year, hitting lows of $4.60 and highs of $5.20 per bushel. Prices are only up about 5 cents since the start of the year and 1% in six months, now trading at $4.76 1/4 a bushel. (See RI’s latest coverage of the grains.)

Also in the crop report, the department updated the citrus forecast to include the effects of a January freeze on California oranges. The California crop will be 39% smaller than last year. This is far less than growers’ first estimates that 75% of California's crop could be lost.

The USDA said below freezing temperatures were recorded on two different occasions during the month but the duration was not long enough to cause any severe damage to groves.

FCOJ contracts on the New York Board of Trade first surged 3.5% on the news in January to nearly 210 cents. Since then, however, orange juice has fallen back, now trading at 204.50 cents per pound, losing 3.70 cents on Friday.

However, frozen concentrated orange juice (FCOJ) contracts have gained about 5% si

[Mick100]

Wheat Futures Rise as Growers May Destroy Crop in Favor of Corn

By Tony C. Dreibus

March 16 (Bloomberg) -- Wheat futures rose for the first time this week on speculation some U.S. farmers in the eastern Midwest will plow under their soft-red winter wheat to make room for more-profitable corn.

About 8.33 million acres were seeded with soft-red winter wheat in eastern Midwest states in October and November, according to government estimates. Corn may replace wheat on some of those acres where the wheat plants were weakened by excessive rains during planting season. Corn prices are up 76 percent in the past year while wheat prices rose 30 percent.

``I talked to a guy who said they're going to be turning cattle out on their wheat pasture then they're going to rip it up and plant to corn,'' said Jason Britt, an analyst at Central States Commodities Inc. in Kansas City, Missouri.

Wheat futures for May delivery rose 2.75 cents, or 0.6 percent, to $4.5825 a bushel in at 10:17 a.m. on the Chicago Board of Trade after falling yesterday to the lowest close since Feb. 7. Most-active futures, down 3.8 percent this week, have fallen 18 percent from a 10-year high on Oct. 17. Prices rose 48 percent last year after drought hurt global crops.

Parts of the eastern Midwest received as much as three times normal precipitation in October and November when growers were trying to seed their soft red winter-wheat crop. Because of the excess moisture the plants didn't get a good start, Britt said. As corn prices continue to rise it may be more profitable for farmers to plow their wheat under and plant corn.

``People transferring wheat to corn -- that's going to be done,'' said Walter Otstott, a senior broker at Dallas Commodity Co. in Dallas. ``We may very well see more of that happening'' as corn prices rise mostly because of demand for the fuel-additive ethanol, he said.

Wheat is the fourth biggest U.S. crop with a 2006 value of $7.7 billion. Corn is the biggest, valued at a record $33.8 billion, with soybeans in second place, followed by hay.

A futures contract is an obligation to buy or sell a commodity at a set price for delivery by a specific date.

To contact the reporters on this story: Tony C. Dreibus in Chicago at tdreibus@bloomberg.net .

Last Updated: March 16, 2007 11:25 EDT

[Mick100]

China's Corn Exports May Plunge as Local Demand Rises (Update5)

By William Bi

March 23 (Bloomberg) -- China, the world's second-biggest corn producer, may slash exports of the grain by almost half as the livestock sector expands to cater for more meat-based diets and industrial use surges in line with economic growth.

Corn exports are forecast to fall 44 percent to 2.5 million metric tons in 2007/08 from 4.5 million tons in the current year ending in September, Jiang Jianhua, vice chairman of Jilin Grain Group Co., one of the country's two authorized grain exporters, said at the China JCI feed conference in Guangzhou today.

Reduced Chinese corn exports will further shrink worldwide supplies that the U.S. Department of Agriculture expects will drop this year to the lowest since 1978. Corn prices have risen 87 percent in the past year due to record production of the alternative fuel ethanol and global demand for livestock feed.

``If China's corn exports fall in the coming year, we have no choice but to source the grain from the U.S. or South America,'' Lee Young Il, foreign trade department general manager at Nonghyup Feed Inc., South Korea's second-largest feed corn importer, said by phone.

China's meat production has grown an average 4.8 percent a year for the last five years, boosting livestock feed demand, while the starch and ethanol sectors have grown more than 15 percent annually in the same period, the U.S. Foreign Agricultural Service said in a report dated March 1.

``Driven by increased industrial usage and declining stock, domestic supply is becoming tighter and tighter,'' Jiang said. The world's most-populous country is eating more meat as incomes rise with economic growth, which was 10.7 percent last year, the fastest in 11 years.

Production Rising

China's corn production, second only to that of the U.S., is expected to rise 1.4 percent to 146 million tons this year, the China National Grain and Oils Information Center said on March 7.

Chinese demand for corn is forecast to rise 2.9 percent in the year ending September, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said March 9. Corn is mostly used for animal feed and as starch in sweeteners, paper-making, textiles and food-processing. High oil prices are also encouraging output of corn-based ethanol.

``The growth of China's corn processing capacity has been extraordinary in terms of both the rate and the scale,'' said Wang Licai, deputy general manager of Yellow Dragon Food Industry Co., a corn-processor in Jilin, the main corn-growing province.

Demand may cut China's corn stockpiles this year to almost half the level of four years ago, when the country exported 15.2 million tons, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said.

Export Curbs

Chinese corn exports for the year ending September will be no more than 3.8 million tons by the end of this month, out of 4.5 million tons of export quotas issued, Jiang said, adding that the government may not approve further sales.

China's exports go mostly to South Korea and Japan. South Korea bought as much as 660,000 tons of corn, mostly from the U.S. or South America, between Feb. 28 and March 2, according to a supplier familiar with the purchases.

`We have not been given any quotas,'' Jiang said, commenting on speculation the government may have issued new export quotas.

Jilin Grain and China National Cereals, Oils and Foodstuffs Corp. are the only two companies allowed to export grain.

Still, the 2006 harvest may be 10 percent more than official estimates of 144 million tons, and another good crop this year, may prompt the government to ease export restrictions, Jiang said.

Chinese farmers have been holding back sales in hope of further price rises, as Dalian Commodity Exchange corn futures soared 21 percent in the last six months.

``The situation has changed,'' Jiang said. Farmers are now rushing to sell corn to prepare for planting next month. Corn plantings are forecast to rise 1 percent to 27.4 million hectares this year, the Grain and Oils Informatio

[Mick100]

Corn: The inflation crop
The U.S. is set to report a jump in acreage planted as farmers feed the ethanol machine. One byproduct: rising food prices.
By Jeff Cox, CNNMoney.com contributing writer
March 28 2007: 7:20 AM EDT


NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- It's no secret that the rush to ethanol and other alternative fuels has made corn the rock star of the Farm Belt.

That newfound prominence has big implications for the nation's economy, experts say. Soaring corn prices are pushing up the tab for everything from candy to corn flakes, moribund land values have jumped in many Midwestern farming communities and the crop has become the lynchpin for the budding $40 billion ethanol industry.


Prices for corn have doubled during the last two years, a trend that's pushing food prices higher.







With corn farmers now getting $4 a bushel for their crops - double the price just two years ago - corn's become the crop of choice for farmers. And with the government's release Friday of a key report likely to show a jump of 11 percent or more in the amount of acreage farmers plant with corn this year, the 7,000-year-old crop will remain front and center in the eyes of economists and millions of other Americans.

Bush, automakers pitch ethanol
"It really is a bit of uncharted territory," said Christopher Hurt, an economist at Purdue University, referring to the vast increase targeted for corn production. "We've never seen a year where we've needed to shift so many acres into corn because of a dramatically large increase in demand for the commodity."

Corn is the main ingredient in U.S.-made ethanol, the biofuel the Bush administration hopes will start to wean the United States away from oil. President Bush has set to reduce gasoline consumption 20 percent the next 10 years.

Last year some 2.1 billion bushels of corn produced ethanol at 106 plants nationwide. That number is expected to jump to 3.5 billion bushels this year as dozens of new plants come on line or get expanded, according to the Renewable Fuels Association.

As corn output jumps, farmland devoted to other crops will drop. Acreage devoted to cotton, for instance, is expected to show a 14 percent decline from 2006, according to the National Cotton Council. Soybeans, wheat, barley, oats and alfalfa also will be displaced.

The corn phenomenon will be felt in the market in a variety of ways.

The high demand for corn, which accounted for about 10 percent of the $305 billion farm industry last year, will push food bills up faster than the overall rate of inflation, economists say. That's because corn and corn-based sweeteners are used in so many foods and soft drinks.

Meanwhile, farmers benefiting from higher prices for corn - and higher land values - could also get higher prices for other crops that corn has displaced.

"I think the probability now is very large for 2007 and 2008 that price increases in the food and beverage sectors are going to outpace the general inflation rate," said Hurt, who predicted food prices will rise 5 to 7 percent in each of those years compared to the norm of about 3 percent.

"Energy has been the bigger component of inflation these past two years, while food helped to moderate that. Now you have a scenario where food and beverage are going to be leading inflation."

Most economists are predicting the U.S. will say farmers are planting some 88 million acres with corn this year, up from 78 million in 2006. The Department of Agriculture is due to release its annual crop survey on Friday. March is a pivotal month for the survey because it's when farmers announce their planting intentions. Corn prices are expected to stabilize around $4 a bushel, up 20 percent from last year and a 100 percent spike over 2005.

But into each crop's life a little rain must fall, and too much precipitation could spoil corn's reign as king of the crops.

A wet spring would delay corn planting. A shorter growing season would cut output and could cause nasty swings in prices. A spike in prices would hurt the ethanol i

[Mick100]

Ethanol Demand Boosts Corn Planting
Friday March 30, 10:46 pm ET
By Nafeesa Syeed and David Pitt, Associated Press Writers
Ethanol Demand Boosts Corn Planting 15 Percent in 2007, Biggest Since 1944


DES MOINES, Iowa (AP) -- An ethanol-fueled boom in prices will prompt American farmers to plant the most corn since the year the Allies invaded Normandy, but surging demand could mean consumers still may pay more for everything from chicken to cough syrup.


Farmers are expected to plant 90.5 million acres of corn, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture's annual prospective plantings report released Friday. That would be a 15 percent increase over 2006 and the most corn planted since 1944.

Mother Nature will play a large part in the actual acreage planted. Muddy fields are already slowing plantings in some states.

"We're awfully wet out here," said John Scott, a grain farmer in west central Iowa. "Normally by this time of year we're doing quite a bit of field work. There just isn't a wheel turning out here. Illinois is in the same boat."

Corn should be planted by mid-May for good yields and soybeans can be planted as late as June, which could be a fallback plan for farmers if corn doesn't get planted in time.

The move to plant corn is in large part due to a rush to produce corn-based ethanol, which is blended with gasoline. There are now 114 ethanol refineries nationwide and another 80 under construction.

The corn rush was sparked by President Bush's initiative to support flexible-fuel vehicles, which are capable of using gasoline and ethanol blends, and his administration's plan to cut gas consumption by 20 percent in 10 years.

Corn prices were already rising when Bush announced the initiative in Washington on Jan. 23 and there has been growing concern that the corn rush could hurt the poor in less-developed nations such as Mexico, where the crop is a staple used in tortillas.

On Thursday, Cuban leader Fidel Castro wrote in an editorial for the Communist Party daily newspaper that President Bush's ethanol plan could deplete corn and other food stocks in developing nations, putting the lives of 3 billion people at risk worldwide.

"You're in the middle of an emergence of a food versus fuel debate," said Lincoln Ellis, director of asset management for the Linn Group, a Chicago-based privately held financial trading business focusing on commodities and futures. "This is the pregame show. We haven't even hit the first quarter."

Corn is a key ingredient in many foods, from corn syrup found in candies and cough syrup to feed used in meat production.

Chicken producers welcomed the planting report, hoping that an increased corn supply would reduce feed costs that have led to a 40 percent rise in chicken prices. But they noted that the bigger corn harvest would come at the expense of soybean acres, expected to drop by 11 percent.

"This is definitely a mixed report," Bill Roenigk, senior vice president and chief economist at the National Chicken Council, said in a statement.

Livestock and dairy producers also were optimistic that increased corn production could lead to a decline in feed prices. That presumption showed up in the stock prices for chicken producers on Friday. The shares of Pilgrim's Pride Corp., Tyson Foods Inc. and Sanderson Farms Inc. all rose after the news.

Corn for May delivery was trading at $3.74 a bushel Friday on the Chicago Board of Trade, down 5.1 percent, or 20 cents from Thursday, the daily limit for loss set by the board.

Corn prices had fallen about 17 percent from their Feb. 26 10-year high of $4.50.

Agriculture industry analyst David Driscoll, of Citigroup Research, said in a report to investors Friday that he expects the increased corn acres to cause the price of corn to fall to about $3 a bushel by December.

Corn had been stuck at around $2 a bushel for years before the ethanol boom lifted prices.

Bob Ray, a senior vice president at the Chicago Board of Trade, said predictions that corn prices will continue to decline because of

[Mick100]

Cotton Acreage Expected to Decline
Monday April 9, 3:42 am ET
By Becky Bohrer, Associated Press Writer
Cotton Acreage Expected to Decline Across the South This Season As Corn Planting Increases


NEW ORLEANS (AP) -- Elliot Colvin usually plants most of his 1,800 acres in cotton. But not this year.
With corn prices up and cotton at break-even levels, the northeastern Louisiana farmer considers corn his best bet and for the first time in more than a decade will plant no cotton.


"I'm very optimistic about it," he said. "When you go into a season with good prices, it makes you feel a lot better."

Cotton acreage is expected to decline across the South this season as farmers, faced with high production costs and cotton from last season remaining unsold, move to corn or soybeans, crops with higher profit potential.

The sharpest decline is projected for Mississippi and Louisiana; farmers in Louisiana, where construction of at least one corn-based ethanol plant is planned, are expected to seed their fewest cotton acres since 1975 and their most corn in nearly a decade, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture.

Demand from the growing ethanol industry, which last year reached record production levels worldwide, and traditional markets, such as livestock feed and export customers, has helped drive corn to more than $4 a bushel this year while cotton prices have remained relatively low, according to agricultural leaders and the Renewable Fuels Association.

While it's not seen as a fatal blow to the cotton industry, the planting shift comes at a time of global trade talks and ahead of the rewriting of federal farm legislation.

"Farmers will make decisions on what is most profitable," said Kurt Guidry, an agricultural economist with the Louisiana State University AgCenter. As they penciled out their planting intentions this spring, "it was pretty tough to find something that would compete with corn prices."

Corn this year has traded at some of its highest levels in years, reaching $4.30 a bushel on the Chicago Board of Trade in mid-February, Guidry said. While prices have fallen since March 30, when USDA forecast the nation's largest planted acreage in 63 years, the recent $3.86-a-bushel price on the December futures is far higher than an average $2 a bushel farmers got for the 2005 crop, a trade group analyst said. And the price could go higher, depending on conditions this growing season.

Contrast that with cotton, a labor-intensive crop that, for the 2006 crop year, has traded on the futures market at an average of 54 cents a pound, comparable to prices posted for 2000, according to the National Cotton Council.

Cotton can be more expensive to produce than corn, costing farmers in parts of northeast Louisiana, where considerable farmland is irrigated, up to $450 an acre, said Keith Collins, Richland Parish agent for the LSU AgCenter.

Statewide, USDA projects corn planting in Louisiana to more than double this year, to 700,000 acres. If the projection holds, it would be one of the biggest corn plantings in the state in decades, agency figures show.

In neighboring Mississippi, Justin Ferguson, a regional manager for that state's Farm Bureau Federation, expects "one of the biggest crop changes in the Mississippi Delta that's ever happened, just from total switches from cotton to corn."

The USDA projects Mississippi will plant its biggest corn acreage since 1960 and its fewest acres in cotton since 1983. Already, some farmers in the Delta cotton country are trading in cotton-picking equipment for combines, Ferguson said.

"When you're spending less money and have to borrow less, your risk exposure is less," Collins said. "When you add in corn prices where they are, it's a win-win situation."

The numbers aren't swaying everyone. Eddie Green, who grows corn and cotton in Georgia, still plans to plant predominantly cotton. If he believes the price for corn will stay high -- and he's thinking it may -- he said he'd consider investing more in grain equipment. "At this point, it's

[Crypto Crude]

quote:duncan macgregor
We all know this MICK the price of grain etc etc. The flow on to the ASX and the NZX range of farming companies wont have an effect for this year on share prices. You are 12 months in front of the market. The AUSTRALIAN drought takes care of most of the advantage on that side of the tasman for the remainder of the year. On the NZ side, we have a govt that throws a bucket of cold water over farm expectations the moment the dollar dares to drop. This will all change, but not this year. Worth keeping an eye on, but not worth investing until it turns. The farm service companies are finding it tough right now, but not as bad as the farmers, until that changes its not worth even thinking about it. MACDUNK


mackdadunk....
totally agree...
exchange rates will do little to help this sector this year...
when interest rate cycle turns then we can expect this to flow through into increased earnings in the export sector...
wont be this year....
within the next few years, my auzzie shares are gonna starting shinning with foreign exchange rate risk....
anyway, great present opportunities, to save up to transfer more money across...
mackdadunk. 200% off my nzood, and that will go across also...:D:D
[8D]
.^sc

[Mick100]

Warning comes as producers seek aid, citing woes last year
By Bruce A. Mohl, Globe Staff | April 12, 2007

The price of milk and some other dairy products are headed for record highs this summer, with raw milk prices expected to jump as much as 40 cents a gallon since last year, according to industry officials.

Officials at H.P. Hood, the Chelsea-based dairy, said the price farmers receive for raw milk has been rising steadily and will rise at least another 25 cents during the summer . As a result, retail prices for milk, ice cream, and cottage cheese will increase, although by how much is unclear. Retailers declined to comment yesterday.

"We have an unprecedented situation," said Mike Suever , senior vice president for milk procurement at Hood.

The warnings about sharply higher raw milk prices come at a time when Massachusetts dairy farmers and their counterparts in several other Northeastern states are pushing hard for financial aid from state regulators. Dairy farmers say low prices and high production costs last year devastated their businesses. But Hood, other dairies, and supermarket chains say price supports are unnecessary, pointing to the sharp uptick in prices as evidence.

Senator Stephen M. Brewer , a Democrat from Barre who is seeking state financial help for Massachusetts' 167 dairy farmers, said the escalation in prices is good news. "But it doesn't obviate the need to deal with the debt these farmers have incurred over the last year," he said. Brewer said farmers need an immediate infusion of $3 million to $12 million from the state.

[Mick100]

quote:Originally posted by Shrewd Crude


quote:duncan macgregor
We all know this MICK the price of grain etc etc. The flow on to the ASX and the NZX range of farming companies wont have an effect for this year on share prices. You are 12 months in front of the market. The AUSTRALIAN drought takes care of most of the advantage on that side of the tasman for the remainder of the year. On the NZ side, we have a govt that throws a bucket of cold water over farm expectations the moment the dollar dares to drop. This will all change, but not this year. Worth keeping an eye on, but not worth investing until it turns. The farm service companies are finding it tough right now, but not as bad as the farmers, until that changes its not worth even thinking about it. MACDUNK


mackdadunk....
totally agree...
exchange rates will do little to help this sector this year...
when interest rate cycle turns then we can expect this to flow through into increased earnings in the export sector...
wont be this year....
within the next few years, my auzzie shares are gonna starting shinning with foreign exchange rate risk....
anyway, great present opportunities, to save up to transfer more money across...
mackdadunk. 200% off my nzood, and that will go across also...:D:D
[8D]
.^sc


Macmouth, sc

What you two appear to be forgetting is that the sharemarket anticipates changes in the economy (USUALLY BY ABOUT 6 MONTHS) - If you wait until the exchange rate drops you will have missed a good part of the move in shareprices

PGW and AAC up nicely in the last couple of weeks
Significant reductions in cotton planting in the US should get NAM moving along soon.
.

[Mick100]

Corn May Rise as Wet Midwest Soils Shift Some Acres to Soybeans

By Jeff Wilson and Tony Dreibus

April 25 (Bloomberg) -- Corn prices may rise as wet weather delays planting in the Midwest, increasing the number of acres that will be switched to producing soybeans.

As much as 2.5 inches (6.35 centimeters) of rain may fall in parts of the Midwest the next 48 hours after some locations received more than 3 inches yesterday, said Joel Burgio, a meteorologist for Meteorlogix LLC in Woburn, Massachusetts. Muddy fields that delay corn planting much beyond May 20 would reduce yield potential and prompt farmers to switch to soybeans.

``Many have not started because of the big rains that were forecast and the cold soils,'' said William Fordham, president of C & S Grain Marketing in Ohio, Illinois. ``None will get planted'' for the next five or six days because of soils too muddy for heavy farm machinery, he said.

Corn futures for July delivery rose 3.75 cents, or 1 percent, to $3.75 a bushel in after-hours electronic trading on the Chicago Board of Trade, the second straight gain. Prices have fallen 17 percent since reaching a 10-year high at $4.5025 on Feb. 26, after U.S. farmers said they intend to boost acreage 15 percent this year to the highest since 1944.

Soybean futures for July delivery rose 2 cents to $7.2825 a bushel overnight in Chicago after closing yesterday at the lowest since Feb. 1. Most-active futures have fallen 9.8 percent since climbing to a 32-month high of $8.0775 on Feb. 22 on speculation record crops in South America will reduce international demand for U.S. soybeans.

Wheat Outlook

Wheat may fall in Chicago and Kansas City on speculation that freeze damage this month from Texas to North Carolina wasn't as severe as originally thought.

Some 54 percent of the winter crop was rated good or excellent as of April 22, compared with 71 percent on April 1 before the freeze and 39 percent a year ago, when drought damaged crops. Some traders expected that estimate to be worse after temperatures dropped as low as 17 degrees Fahrenheit (minus 8 Celsius) from Kansas to Ohio on April 7.

``There's damaged wheat,'' said Darrell Holaday, president of Advanced Market Concepts in Manhattan, Kansas. ``But you have a lot of fields that look fine, so there'll be minimal loss.''

Wheat futures for July delivery rose 2 cents, or 0.4 percent, to $4.995 a bushel in after-hours trading on the Chicago Board of Trade, after falling 3.4 percent the previous two sessions from a five-month high. Futures reached a 10-year high of $5.57 in October after droughts cut global production.

Corn is the biggest U.S. crop, valued at a record $33.8 billion in 2006, with soybeans in second place, at $19.7 billion, government figures show. Wheat is the fourth biggest crop, behind hay, with a value of $7.7 billion.

A futures contract is an obligation to buy or sell a commodity at a set price for delivery by a specific date.

[Mick100]

RESOURCES

Bloomberg TV Bloomberg Radio Bloomberg Podcasts Bloomberg Press

Wheat Falls After Rains in Australia, Europe Cut Drought Threat

By Jeff Wilson

April 30 (Bloomberg) -- Wheat futures in Chicago fell for a second straight session on speculation rains in Australia and Europe have eased immediate drought threats.

Most wheat-growing areas in Australia, hurt by drought last year, received as much as 2 inches (5 centimeters) of rain the past three days, improving soil moisture for planting, which begins next month, according to private forecaster Meteorlogix LLC in Woven, Massachusetts. Scattered rains will improve prospects for the winter-wheat crop in Europe.

``The rains in Australia seem to be the main negative this morning for the wheat market,'' said James Barnett, a market analyst for Man Global Research in Chicago. Australia, the third- largest wheat exporter, may produce 25 million metric tons in 2007-08, up from 9.8 million in the previous year, the country's Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics said March 6.

Wheat futures for July delivery fell 7 cents, or 1.4 percent, to $5.055 a bushel at 9:41 a.m. on the Chicago Board of Trade, after falling 0.4 percent last week, the first such drop in four weeks. Before today, prices had climbed 24 percent from a six-month low of $4.12 on April 2, before freezing temperatures damaged some crops in the central U.S.

The U.S. is the third-largest wheat producer behind China and India and the largest exporter.

Wheat futures also fell on speculation that the freeze on April 7 caused less damage than previously estimated to crops in the southern Great Plains.

Oklahoma

Oklahoma's wheat production may double to 164 million bushels from 81.6 million last year, according to a survey of 43 agronomists, farmers and grain merchandisers at the annual meeting of the Oklahoma Grain and Feed Commission last week. Wheat samples collected from 77 counties showed the potential for 191 million bushels, according to Roger Gribble, an agronomist at Oklahoma State University.

Oklahoma last year was the fifth-largest winter-wheat producing state.

About 54 percent of the U.S. winter crop was in good or excellent condition as of April 22, compared with 71 percent on April 1, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said last week. As much as four times the normal rain this month has helped crops recover from freezing temperatures, said Greg Grow, director of agribusiness for Archer Financial Services Inc. in Chicago.

``The wheat crop conditions probably did not decline'' last week, Grow said. ``Wheat crops have the ability to surprise people because they can recover from freezing temperatures with the right conditions.'' The USDA updates its crop ratings today at 4 p.m. in Washington.

Wheat was the fourth-biggest U.S. crop in 2006, valued at $7.7 billion, government data show. Corn was the largest at $33.8 billion, followed by soybeans and hay.


.

[Mick100]

Got milk? Get ready to pay more
Higher prices for a glass of milk - not to mention pizza and lattes: yet another casualty of corn-based ethanol craze.

By Jeff Cox, CNNMoney.com contributing writer
May 3 2007: 5:56 AM EDT


NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Got money?

You better hope so, because you'll need more of it to get milk.





Most agriculture experts say milk prices will jump in coming months as producers pass along increased costs for livestock feed (read: higher corn prices because of ethanol) and a spike in overseas demand.

But while the news may be bad for consumers, an uptick in prices is manna from heaven for dairy farmers looking for relief like Lorraine Merrill who got hammered during the 2006 spring drought.

"We have been through some really grueling times," said Merrill, 55, who grew up on the Stratham, N.H., farm where four generations of her family - she and her husband, her parents, along with her son and his family - still live. "We will see our prices go up significantly over the next two or three months, but we desperately need that."

How much that increase will be depends largely on whom you ask and where you live.

Ken Bailey, a dairy expert at Penn State University's College of Agricultural Sciences, predicts an overall 8 percent increase for whole milk, from an average of $3.07 a gallon to about $3.35 in October.

The news is worse, though, if you live in New York, where milk this week shot up 60 cents a gallon to $3.54, a 20 percent increase, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture. In Chicago, milk prices in April jumped 12 percent from a year earlier and are expected to rise further. In Boston, prices are 8 percent higher over last year and are also seen moving higher.

Merrill said she and other dairy farmers will take whatever they can get right now.

"We have lost a lot of ground and have a lot of lost equity to make up," she said. "If that surge in milk prices for farmers does not happen, then you're going to see a whole lot more farms go out of business this year."

Corn: The inflation crop
Even if prices do go up as much as expected, this still is shaping up as a lean year for the $90 billion dairy industry. Milk price increases right now are acting as little else than another link in the chain reaction caused by the increase in corn demand from ethanol makers.

Corn prices hovering near $4 a bushel have driven up feed prices substantially for livestock farmers, putting upward pressure on the cost of milk, beef, pork and any number of other items for the dinner table.

But corn isn't the only villain in the milk soap opera.

After years of flooding international markets with surplus milk products, the European Union, under heavy pressure from within, has curtailed its €43 billion ($59 billion) annual subsidy system, at least where dairy is concerned. Combine that with drought conditions in New Zealand and Australia, two big milk-exporting countries, and it makes for tight supplies worldwide, and higher demand for U.S. product.

But the milk issues stretch well beyond the liquid you pour in a glass.

Prices for nonfat dry milk, used for baking and sent to feed people in developing countries, have jumped 30 percent, according to the International Dairy Foods Association. And prices for dry whey - the byproduct left when making cheese and other products that's widely used in processed foods - are at record highs.

Rising milk prices can also push prices higher for things like ice cream, energy bars and pizza, as well as anything else made with dairy. Economists said they couldn't pinpoint how much prices might rise on those products but they said consumers will notice.

"They should just be aware that they're going to be paying a lot more for food items that contain certain dairy products. There's no substitute for cheese, there's no substitute for milk or butter," said Penn State's Bailey. "The only consolation if you're a consumer is that dairy farmers had a really rough year last year" and the price increases will help.

The

[Mick100]

Statement on Drought for the 12-month period ending 30th April 2007
ISSUED 3rd May 2007 by the National Climate Centre

Short Term Relief but Long Term Drought Persists
With the demise of the 2006 El Niño event, 2007 has seen a general improvement in rainfall across Australia. Above average rainfall has been widespread across southern Australia for the four month period January to April 2007, with near to average rainfall across much of the Murray Darling Basin. April saw particularly good falls across southern Western Australia much of South Australia, and parts of western Victoria and New South Wales. While follow-up falls are clearly needed, this rainfall will provide short term relief to many agricultural systems.

History shows that the breakdown of past El Niño droughts has usually been associated with a shift to above-normal rainfall across much of eastern Australia. For example, of the 20 past El Niño-related droughts in the Murray-Darling Basin, in all 20 cases, a period of sustained above-normal rainfall occurred no later than the following winter (June-August). In 60% of cases this had occurred by the February-April period, whilst in the remaining 40% of cases it was later than that, most commonly in the May-July period. There is no historical precedent in 107 years of records for dry conditions to continue unbroken through the winter following an El Niño event.

An important consideration in the recovery from this drought event is the different rate at which systems respond to drought. At the current time, many catchments in eastern Australia are excessively dry from a very protracted period of below average rainfall and above average temperatures. This means that it will take above average rainfall just to produce average runoff, and very considerable rainfall to make a material difference to water storages.

Long Term Deficiencies Remain in parts of Southwestern and Eastern Australia
Above average rainfall during April in Western Australia to the north of Carnarvon and to the south of Perth, eased areas of lowest on record rainfall for the period, but severe deficiencies still remain. In contrast below average rainfall for April in the area around Melbourne and in northern Tasmania caused an expansion of an area of lowest on record rainfall. Dry conditions were eased in parts of southern South Australia, which received above average rainfall for the month, but for the past twelve months, rainfall deficiencies remain evident in western WA. southeastern South Australia and in a band stretching across much of the region from Tasmania to southeast Queensland.

For the 12-month period from May 2006 to April 2007, there were serious to severe rainfall deficiencies over southern and eastern Australia in a broad arc extending across southeastern SA, much of Victoria, much of southeastern NSW west of the Great Divide, and a large part of southeast Queensland. Northern and eastern parts of Tasmania were also affected as was WA west of a line from around Exmouth to Bremer Bay in the south. Record low 12-month falls were recorded between Dalby and Goondiwindi in southern Queensland, along much of WA’s southwest coast and Tasmania’s north coast, and in a large area around Melbourne.

The worst of the long-term deficiencies are likely to remain for some time. For them to be removed by the end of July, for example, falls over the next three months would need to be in the highest 10% of the historical record in many areas, especially in Victoria and southeast Queensland.

In comparison with the situation for the twelve months to March, areas of lowest rainfall on record shrank parts of western WA, particularly around Carnarvon and expanded in southern Victoria around Melbourne.

The deficiencies discussed above have occurred against a backdrop of multi-year rainfall deficits that have severely stressed water supplies in the east and southwest of the country.

Rainfall deficiency maps for standard periods out to three years are available.

[Mick100]

Speculative Buying is a Feature on Soybean Price Rise
Thursday, June 7, 2007
by Stephen Davis of RJO Futures


As published on InsideFutures.com

The opening call in soybeans Tuesday morning was 10¢ to 13¢ higher. The market is feeding off bullish technical momentum, with speculative buying being a feature on the price rise. The supportive influence of record high prices in Malaysian palm oil futures and the long range forecast targeting a potential moisture blocking ridge moving into the eastern Midwest are serving as the fundamental catalysts.

The market is disregarding historically high planting progress and crop ratings, looking more on long-range concerns amid outlooks for shrinking inventories in the 2007-08 marketing year. However, overbought market conditions may produce some profit-taking if the market fails to attract follow-through buying.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture's global ending stock levels for the four main vegoils-palm oil, soybean oil, rapeseed oil {also known as canola), and sunflower seed oil-have fallen for the past several years.

Oilseeds in general, except for rapeseed, are losing acreage globally-cutting production and tightening stocks. In the U.S., soybean planted acreage is forecasted to slip 11% as farmers plant corn for ethanol production. Even when we bounce back on production, we face surging world demand, tied to expanding economies. We think this gives the oilseeds some lasting staying power on higher prices.

Corn will begin trading higher on the strength in beans. Crop conditions remain at high levels, which are not bullish for the market. However, the longer-term weather is supportive for corn, with some forecasts putting a moisture blocking ridge back into their longer-range forecasts.

Parched conditions in Ukraine have been bullish for wheat recently, and a revised crop damage estimate out overnight should provide renewed support. The report said 650,000 hectares of Ukraine's grain crops have been "irreparably damaged" by the drought, and that the extent of the damage is likely to increase because 10 million total hectares have been affected.

;

[Mick100]

The rising tide of Corn

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/06/14/AR2007061402008.html?nav=most_emailed
.

[clearasmud]

Sugar may Double by Yearend on more Ethonal Use

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601086&sid=a3TJGA0ZINoE&refer=latin_america

[Mick100]

Senate Passes Pro-Renewables Energy Bill
Friday June 22, 3:35 am ET
By H. Josef Hebert and Ken Thomas, Associated Press Writers
Senate Approves Energy Bill Boosting Auto Fuel Economy Requirements by 2020


WASHINGTON (AP) -- The Senate passed an energy bill late Thursday that includes an increase in automobile fuel economy, new laws against energy price-gouging and a requirement for huge increases in the production of ethanol.


In an eleventh-hour compromise fashioned after two days of closed-door meetings, an agreement was reached to increase average fuel economy by 40 percent to 35 miles per gallon for cars, SUVs and pickup trucks by 2020.

But the fuel economy issue threatened to topple the legislation up to the last minute. Majority Leader Harry Reid held off the vote until late into the evening so several senators could be called back to Capitol Hill to provide the 60-vote margin needed to overcome a threatened filibuster from pro-auto industry senators.

Shortly before midnight, senators voted 62-32 to cut off debate, and followed by passing the bill 65-27. The measure now awaits action by the House, which is expected to take it up next week. But attempts to combine the two bills and send legislation to President Bush probably won't be possible until later this year.

Bush, who was in Alabama visiting a nuclear power plant, said Congress must "be realistic" about the energy legislation and acknowledged that while he supports the increase in ethanol use, he also opposes much of the legislation.

The White House said the president would be urged to veto an energy bill that includes the price-gouging measure, arguing it amounts of price controls. The president also repeatedly has said he opposes Congress mandating a specific mileage number for auto fuel economy. Bush believes the Transportation Department should be given increased flexibility to set a standard.

While Democrats proclaimed a victory, they failed to achieve several of their top energy priorities.

Republicans blocked a $32 billion tax package to boost energy efficiency and renewable energy programs, refusing to go along with $29 billion in taxes on the oil industry to pay for it. Republicans also refused to allow a vote on a measure that would have required electric utilities to produce at least 15 percent of their power from wind, biomass or other renewable energy sources.

Reid called the setbacks unfortunate but said in a statement that the bill "starts America on a path toward reducing our reliance on oil by increasing our use of renewables and for the first time in decades significantly improving the fuel efficiency of cars and trucks."

It would be the first increase in vehicle fuel efficiency since the current 22.7 mpg for cars was put in place in 1989 and the first time Congress has imposed a new auto efficiency mandate in 32 years.

Supporters said the new requirement would save 2.5 million barrels of oil a day by 2025, when large numbers of the more fuel-stingy cars will be on the road.

Republicans complained that the energy bill is tilted too much toward renewables and fuel efficiency and does nothing to boost domestic oil or natural gas production.

But its supporters said it reflects a shift to a new energy priorities, away from promoting fossil fuels to supporting other energy sources such wind and biomass to make electricity and ethanol to power cars and trucks.

The legislation provides a bonanza to farmers and the ethanol industry. It requires ethanol production to grow to at least 36 billion gallon a year by 2022, a sevenfold increase of the amount of ethanol processed last year.

The legislation also calls for:

--Price gouging provisions that make it unlawful to charge an "unconscionably excessive" price for oil products including gasoline and give the federal government new authority to investigate oil industry market manipulation.

--New appliance and lighting efficiency standards and a requirement that the federal government accelerate use of more efficient lighting in public building

[macduffy]

TIM; TFC. Pretty close to the soil.

[ratkin]

Looked at Nufarm , looks like the sharp money went in six months ago , now looking pricey.

[macduffy]

Phaedrus prob wouldnt agree with TIM :-) Still stuck in a downtrend. Do you have an expectation of a significant turnaround macduff?

TFC looks good though.

Just raising TIM as a possibility to research. There is a school of thought that says that the effect of changes to the Aussie taxation of ag schemes has been over dramatised, given the long "tail" of management fees that TIM and others will collect for 8-10 years.
Personally, I'm a bit averse to ag companies and airlines.

[OneUp]

"We expect this to continue quite frankly because there's going to be this competition for biofuel versus food, and that's going to lead to dwindling amounts of land that's available for food, and we would see further escalation in the price of food. And that's why we think this is not just a cyclical thing, this is a secular trend, this is something that's already started in the last couple of years and it's going to move on."

Is biofuel sustainable or a fad?

Some argue that more oil is used up in the production process of biofuels than if we were simply to keep pumping gas.

It's bizarre. People starve yet we turn food into fuel. Nice move by the farm lobby in the US.

[OneUp]

good point!

[duncan macgregor]

It pays to look beyond the obvious. We all know about peak oil, global warming,etc etc.
The point is we are investors looking at tomorrows market today not the market in ten years time. If we produce fuel from plants it comes at the expence of food production.
The price of farm land will skyrocket which is not the point either. The real point is the profit margin in plants for fuel, or food. I would think the real money is to be made in owning the land at todays prices, for tomorrows market. Land that is useless today might be worth a fortune growing produce, that is not viable in todays market. The land i bought 12 years ago is worth in dollar terms has doubled in price every five years to date.
I would expect that to trend up faster in the future. Macdunk

[Mick100]

AGRI-FOOD THOUGHTS
by Ned W. Schmidt, CFA, CEBS
Schmidt Management Company
September 19, 2007
http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/schmidt/2007/images/0905home.jpgAs incomes rise in China and India, their consumers will dictate prices for oil and food. Their preferences are setting relative prices of nearly all commodities. These preferences have shifted to reflect their higher incomes, and will continue to do so. Chart below portrays per capita consumption of beef and rice by Chinese consumers, per UN FAO. Beef is now a preferred item on the menu at Chinese homes. Magnifying this shift is number of consumers in China and India. Such preference shifts have caused prices of grains and meats around world to rise. Higher beef consumption means raising more beef. Raising more beef means using more grain. More grain is consumed to feed the beef than is freed up from eating less rice. Agri-Food growth cycle that has emerged is really that simple.

http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/schmidt/2007/images/0918.h1.gif
To the rising demand for food by consumers in India and China is added incremental demand for grains in order to produce biofuels. Total demand for Agri-Foods is on track to rise materially over next 10-15 years, pushing food prices dramatically higher. Growing real demand and higher prices will “feed” companies and investments associated with Agri-Food. Few investment sectors can expect such structurally positive economic fundamentals for next 10-15 years. In years ahead, morning business shows will likely report crop conditions in Black Sea region or Australia before giving roundup of day's economic trivia. How many companies in your portfolio have consumers in Chinaand India shifting in such a massive way to consuming their products? Any?

http://www.financialsense.com/images/icons/storyend.gif (http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/schmidt/2007/0919.html#top)
© 2007 Ned W. Schmidt
Editorial Archives (http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/schmidt/main.html)

[Mick100]

http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/dancy/2007/1010.html

[The Great Gold Guru]

Amazing that the recent Westpac sponsered AgriFund flopped with only half the $16m min. subscribed. I've read alot of articles recently about Agri-inflation and I am looking at buying into another dairy farm equity partnership here in NZ. I invested in my first dairy farm equity partnership back in 2003 when I could see food prices were only going one way. That $400k investment is now worth just under $1.1m ... A good dairy farm with a good manager is still an excellent long term investment in NZ , even at todays "boom time" prices.

[Huang Chung]

Received this email from a friend, but unfortunately don't know the source. Still, a good read.

Economists are notorious for being unable to reach an easy consensus on many issues, but talk to any of them about the outlook for the global economy and before long the word "China" always starts to dominate the conversation. And it is true that the robustness of Chinese economic growth - around 10 per cent forecast for 2008, barely changed on recent trends - is picking up the pace being lost by faltering Western economies. Trouble is, they're also eating the world - literally, in the case of food supplies.

According to the IMF, about half of the world's economic growth this year will be accounted for by Brazil, Russia, India and China - the BRICs. India, staggeringly, is contributing more growth to the world economy than the United States, but China is by far the most powerful engine of growth - more so than the US, the eurozone and Japan combined. So, "China saves the world" - or at least helps to maintain global economic growth around the 5 per cent mark. Were it not for China and these other emerging economies, the world might well be staring a recession in the face.

Yet this phenomenon is not an unalloyed economic good. As yesterday's news about Rio Tinto and BHP demonstrates, the commodities price boom has led to huge valuations for companies in this field; great for their shareholders, but another signal that the insatiable Chinese demand for oil, copper, zinc, nickel and all the other raw materials of industrialisation is pushing the prices of those commodities to ever-higher peaks. The International Energy Agency warned yesterday that Chinese and Indian crude oil imports will almost quadruple by 2030, creating a supply "crunch" as soon as 2015. Research from ING suggests that marginal Chinese demand for oil, as a percentage of the growth in total consumption, rose to around 72 per cent in 2006, from 10 per cent in the 1980s. This marginal demand could grow to close to 100 per cent of total consumption growth in 2007.

Such an appetite brings with it its own dangers, both to China and the rest of the world. As China pushes the price of oil higher, for example, we in the UK are threatened with "slowflation" - where a slowing economy coexists with higher prices of fuel - and food. Were the British economy to slow to a stop - just possible in say a year - we would see the return of stagnant output plus inflation - the "stagflation" last experienced in the UK in the early 1980s. This is all developing because commodity inflation is spreading into a second phase covering the so-called "soft commodities", as China's burgeoning middle classes develop a taste for a more Western style of eating, enjoying foods such as milk, pork and beef that were once scarce.

Like other peoples suddenly able to expunge the memories of socialist starvation, the Chinese are overcompensating for their malnourished past. Thus they have become a net food importer, probably for the first time in their very long history (socialist-inspired famines apart). There's also an aspect of culture; as China embraces the West so its young people are more given to hanging around the branches of Starbucks, McDonald's and KFC that have popped up all over the prosperous east of the nation. The rice bowl is giving way to the burger and shake. The world is seeing some dairy prices up 200 per cent, the cost of wheat doubling and pork up 50 per cent.

In the past decade alone, meat consumption in China has been rising at an average of 2kg per capita per year, a pattern mirrored elsewhere. Over the past few decades, consumption of meat in developing countries has grown at a rate of 5 to 6 per cent a year; consumption of dairy products at 4 per cent. Meat consumption is growing 10 times faster in newly industrialised countries than in, say, bacon-loving Britain. Poultry is the fastest growing sector worldwide; it represented 13 per cent of meat production in the 1960s, compared with 28 per cent now. Poultry is the most efficient means of converting grain into animal protein; the less palatable truth is that it is more effective to eat the grain directly.

Agricultural inflation - "agflation" in another of these modish phrases - is not entirely down to the Chinese. There are other factors. Freakish weather conditions across the world haven't helped: hurricanes in Florida and floods in England affect the cost of the orange juice and brussels sprouts on your dining table. (Then again, China's breakneck rush for coal-powered growth, and our own profligacy, have caused the global warming that may have intensified these storms.)

Then there's the switch to biofuels which has pushed grain prices higher. So called "phase one" biofuels - bioethanol (a petrol substitute or additive) from grain and biodiesel from palm oil - have met with opposition from environmentalists. Palm oil production has encroached on the remaining rainforest in Indonesia. We are only at the start of the process. Credit Suisse's economist Andrew Garthwaite points out that biofuels make up 3.5 per cent of US gasoline consumption. In January, President George Bush pledged a biofuel target of 20 per cent of US fuel consumption within 10 years.

This means more of America's corn harvest being put into the tanks of cars rather than the bellies of Mexicans, with upward effects on the price of grain: "The 35 billion gallons of ethanol required to meet the 20 per cent target will account for 40 per cent of the US corn crop by 2017," Mr Garthwaite says. Worldwide, "the combined impact of these targets commits 238 million acres or 12 per cent of global arable and permanent cropland to biofuel production". Crucially, though, "second generation" biofuels will use waste material and be a more unequivocally green and economical option; the stalks of grain crops rather than their seeds; surplus cellulose from paper mills; grass cuttings from your lawn.

The big picture, according to Credit Suisse, is that, globally, demand for food and biofuels will grow at about 3.3 per cent per annum - compared with the historic average of 2.3 per cent. Can supply - of food and other commodities - keep pace with a step change in demand?

It was Thomas Malthus who predicted, way back in 1798 as the West was undergoing the transformation China and India are now, that the tendency for populations to rise at a geometric rate while agricultural production rises at an arithmetic rate would constrain population growth through periodic famines. Malthus was wrong, because he failed to foresee the rapid growth in agricultural productivity - crop rotation, selective breeding and mechanisation.

Agronomists are scarcely less imaginative today, yet there are political, environmental and physical obstacles which make the business of extracting more crops for fuel and food tricky. Genetic modification, for example, is viewed with deep suspicion by some shoppers, and politicians have shown themselves unwilling to take on the voters' prejudices. Ditto the supermarkets, at least in the UK.

Apart from China, Brazil, Indonesia and Argentina have the greatest potential for increased acreage and urbanisation, but the environmental cost - itself an economic burden that will have to be shouldered - ought to restrict incursion on pristine environments. When it comes to productivity - the factor that saved the world from a Malthusian nightmare 200 years ago - things are looking a little grim. In the case of cereals, productivity has grown at only 1.3 per cent in the past 20 years. So the outlook is for agricultural, commodity and oil prices to carry on rising.

The $100 barrel of oil could be just the start. Bad news for Ireland and the West - but worse for poorer peoples. Countries such as Bangladesh with large and growing populations but who are net importers of food will feel the effects badly (on top of dealing with rising sea levels in the Ganges delta). The less developed the economy, the greater the share of food prices in the shopping basket, and thus the bigger the impact on standards of living. In the West, food accounted for about 18 per cent of headline inflation in 2007; in eastern Europe it was 33 per cent, and in the Middle East 52 per cent.

Everywhere, and especially in the least-developed regions, there will be a regressive redistribution of income, from the very poorest to the relatively well off, as food accounts for such an overwhelming proportion of the living costs of those at the bottom of the heap. In China that means the rural poor, already a source of anxiety of Beijing as it seeks "balanced" growth. Everywhere, pressure on water supplies and migration will inevitably follow.

We may grumble about another few pence on the price of a loaf and the €1.60 litre of petrol, but we should also be aware that those nations emerging from poverty - China, India, Brazil - are exacting a heavy price on those left behind.

[Mick100]

AGRI-FOOD THOUGHTS
by Ned W. Schmidt, CFA, CEBS
Schmidt Management Company
November 14, 2007
http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/schmidt/2007/images/0905home.jpgWith the upcoming holidays, the eating season is arriving in a goodly part of world. From now till turn of calendar to 2008, food will be primary focus of many consumers. Next week is Thanksgiving in the U.S. On that day, many in the U.S. will consume as much turkey as they do in the remainder of entire year. The cost of producing those over sized birds will be at an all time high. In the years ahead will the turkey dinner fade into history as grain previously used to feed them goes to China or is used to power your car? In the years ahead, will North American consumers be able to afford that annual turkey?


http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/schmidt/2007/images/1114.h1.gif
Unfortunately for a lot of investors, their wealth is not keeping up with the cost of food. In the chart is plotted the weekly Base Food Index against the S&P 500. Agri-Food prices continue to rise while the return on stocks continues rather dismal. One can not eat a portfolio of stocks. The answer may be for an investor to become both defensive and on the offense. Adding Agri-Food investments to your portfolio may enhance your ability to put food on the table in the years ahead. And let us be quite frank, GOOG does not produce one grain of wheat. It can help you search for it. But, if your portfolio continues to be volatile rather than fruitful what will you do when you do find wheat on GOOG. Agri-Food investments are in the process of emerging as a dominant investment theme. Agri-Food is real. SIVs, CDOs, and whatevers are nothing more than fictions quickly moving toward the intrinsic value of all financial fictions. The successful investor of tomorrow will be researching Agri-Food today.

http://www.financialsense.com/images/icons/storyend.gif (http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/schmidt/2007/1114.html#top)
© 2007 Ned W. Schmidt
Editorial Archives (http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/schmidt/main.html)

AGRI-FOOD THOUGHTS are from Ned W. Schmidt,CFA,CEBS, publisher of Agri-Food Value View, a monthly exploration of the Agri-Food grand cycle being created by China, India, and Eco-energy. To review a recent issue write to agrifoodvalueview@earthlink.net. Ned will be exploring the Agri-Food cycle at The Wealth Expo in NYC, 19-21 October.For information go to www.wealthexpo.net

[ratkin]

Im still very keen on GTP and have recently topped up. Trading at less than its book value, very little debt and trading on a P/E of 5 with a dividend yield of 6.6%

In this market such bargains are rare in my opinion. People would rather chase the so called growth stocks , however we saw with ccp what can happen when they dissapoint , they can halve overnight.

GTP have been beaten down due to tax changes on managed investments , however they have plenty of scope to utilise other opportunities, the recent decision to allow secondary trading in forestry will be put to good use. As will the recent aquisition of a woodchip mill in bunbury.

This is the sort of investment i like , hard to see too much downside , while good dividends should mean this can be safely tucked away in the bottom draw.

They due to report in a day or two with a dividend in december coming up.

[Mick100]

I agree ratkin

GTP is my biggest ag commodity holding
As you say - its hard to see any downside here
,

[macduffy]

I've been keeping an eye on GTP, and 2 others, TIM and TFC, for a while now and trying to assess the effects of (a) drought and (b) tax changes on these companies. A good case can be made for concluding that the reaction to both these adverse events may be overdone but I'm still reserving judgement as there doesn't seem to be any need to act quickly. Of course, if sentiment does turn, the SP's are likely to move up very quickly.
Of the 3, I rather prefer TFC which doesn't have the exposure to horticulture, which is affected by the tax changes; concentrates on Indian Sandalwood whose prices have almost tripled in the last 4 years; and is less/un? affected by drought due to its tropical location.
TFC trades at a higher P/E and lower yield than the others.

[ratkin]

Here is a special report by GTP on the effects of the drought on their operations, very reasuring it is to

16 November 2007
Special water report
Great Southern has produced a comprehensive overview of the comapny's response to climate change, drought and water issues.

. http://www.great-southern.com.au/default.aspx?MenuID=346#1410

[Mick100]

AGRICULTURAL SECTOR REMAINS
ATTRACTIVE: 'A Sense of Panic'by Joseph Dancy, LSGI Advisors, Inc.
Adjunct Professor, SMU School of Law
November 16, 2007

http://s7.addthis.com/button1-bm.gif (http://www.addthis.com/bookmark.php?v=12&winname=addthis&pub=financialsense&s=&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.financialsense.com%2Ffsu%2Fed itorials%2Fdancy%2F2007%2F1116c.html&title=FSU%20Editorial%3A%20%22Agricultural%20Secto r%20Remains%20Attractive%22%20by%20Joseph%20Dancy% 2011%2F16%2F2007)
http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/dancy/2007/images/1116c.18.jpgWe continue to add to positions that should benefit from a strong global agricultural sector. Like the mining and energy sector, long term capital investments in this sector have lagged, especially in light of growing global demand for grains.
Recent events have occurred in the sector which are of interest to investors:

Wheat prices on the Chicago Board of Trade set record highs 23 times in the three months ended October 1st after weather hurt crops from Canada to Australia. Global reserves will fall to 107 million tons from 123 million tons last year, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said.
Wheat and milk prices have surged to all-time highswhile those for corn and soybeans stand at well above their 1990’s averages. Rice and coffee have jumped to 10-year records and meat prices have risen recently by up to 50 per cent in some countries. “The world is gradually losing the buffer that it used to have to protect against big swings [in the market],” says Abdolreza Abbassian, secretary of the grains trading group at the U.N.’s Food and Agriculture Organization. “There is a sense of panic.”
The tightest world grain stocks in about 30 years are contributing to rising food inflation, fueling worries about food shortages in some countries and straining international aid budgets. Russia recently imposed taxes on barley and grain exports to control domestic food prices before pending presidential elections. India, Yemen, Mexico, Burkina Faso and several other countries have had, or been close to, food riots in the last year, something not seen in decades of low global food commodity prices.
Food prices are likely to stay elevated. Global demand is so strong that record crops are needed just to keep up: World wheat consumption has outpaced production for much of the past decade. Better crops next year will not likely allow for significant rebuilding of the grain stockpile due to increasing demand in surging economies such as China and India, according to an October report by the U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization, which characterized the outlook as "grim."
Grain prices, along with higher energy and other costs, are rippling through the agricultural sector. Tight supplies have increased domestic and international demand for alternative feed grains, including barley and sorghum. In the USA, the average price for a loaf of bread is up 11% over the past 12 months. Ground beef has risen 6%, chicken is up 9%, and eggs are up 31%. Overall U.S. food inflation is running 5.6% so far this year, compared with 2.6% for all of 2006. Consumers spend about 10% of take-home pay on food.
Food security is not a new concern for countries that have battled political instability, droughts or wars. But for the first time since the early 1970’s, when there were global food shortages, it is starting to concern more stable nations as well. “The whole global picture is flagging up signals that we’re moving out of a period of abundant food supply into a period in which food is going to be in much shorter supply,” says Henry Fell, chairman of Britain’s Commercial Farmers Group.
http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/dancy/2007/images/1116c.19.jpg Soaring food and energy prices could trigger political upheaval and riots in developing countries according to experts at the United Nations. Food prices are booming: the Food and Agriculture Organization's food price index in July stood at its highest level since its inception in 1990, and was almost 70 percent higher than in 2000.
Ned Schmidt, editor of the Agri-Food Value View, prepared the chart at right. He notes that “as the chart shows, prices are telling investors (http://www.safehaven.com/article-8726.htm) that the world is generally short Agri-Foods. Investors attuned to these price signals have benefited, and will likely benefit for a decade or more.”
Record world prices for most staple foods have led to 18% food price inflation in China, 13% in Indonesia and Pakistan, and 10% or more in Latin America, Russia and India, according to the U.N. Food and Agricultural Organization. Wheat has doubled in price, maize is nearly 50% higher than a year ago and rice is 20% more expensive, says the U.N. Next month the U.N. is expected to say that global food reserves are at their lowest in 25 years and that food prices will remain high for years.

http://www.financialsense.com/images/icons/storyend.gif
© 2007 Joseph Dancy

[airedale]

I have just been looking back at the National Geographic Magazine for June 2004. There is an article about the price of oil, related to farming. There is a picture of a beef cow ready for market. Next to the cow is a stack of five x 44 gallons or 200 litre drums of oil. Altogether 1000 litres of oil. That is what it takes to raise the cow, everything from fertilizer to tractor fuel.
The headline is that takes 3/4 of a gallon of oil to produce a pound of steak. And that was more than 3 years ago.

[ratkin]

Fairly solid result by GTP today , i like their new five year plan , good to see a company not concentrating too much on the short term.

In the presentation they point to the likely rise in agricultural commodities in future and are looking to position themselves for maximum effectiveness.

May well top up before the record date , happy that this is a good solid longterm investment

[Mick100]

Yes this company appears to be very aware of the fact that productive agricultural land (along with water in oz) will become a scarce and valuable resource in the next 10 yrs - they're making all the right moves and getting into a good position to benifit from rising global food prices.
.

[ratkin]

They are also suggesting that the current wine glut is ending and that we could even be moving into a period of shortages of wine. Might be worth investigationg a few of the more beaten up wine stocks.

GTP have 2 million hectares , a staggering amount , makes you realise just how large that country is , most of it cattle country though

[Mick100]

AGRI-FOOD THOUGHTS
by Ned W. Schmidt, CFA, CEBS
Schmidt Management Company
December 11, 2007
http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/schmidt/2007/images/0905home.jpgWant your wealth to grow? Then, own something that grows. U.S. exports of agricultural products this year to September were almost $62 billion. That represents a 22% increase over same period in 2006, and more than the entire year of 2004. How many industries are experiencing that type of growth? International agricultural trade for U.S., exports plus imports, was almost $115 billion, a 16% increase over 2006. Little wonder those involved in Agri-Foods are prospering. That growth is driven by income growth in China and other nations. How about more people? 70 million will be added annually to world's population, and China will grow 16 million a year. Higher incomes and more people are driving up prices and prosperity in Agri-Food sector. As chart shows, prices of Agri-Food commodities are doing far better than the equity markets, and helping Agri-Food investments.


http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/schmidt/2007/images/1211.h26.gif
Regardless of what Federal Reserve, Bank of Canada, or any central bank does with interest rates, people are going to eat. Consumers in China and Russia will be buying food tomorrow, whatever happens to interest rates. Almost humorous is buzz over such matters, and other trivia. Why worry about mortgage mess? Let others chase their tails in financial stocks. Why be impacted by whether WaMu pays a dividend or lays of workers? None of those events have anything to due with global demand growth for Agri-Foods. When one discovers a structural investment opportunity such as Agri-Foods, investing gets a lot easier. We know not whether WaMu will exist five years from now nor care, but we do know spending by Chinese consumers on Agri-Foods will be a larger.

http://www.financialsense.com/images/icons/storyend.gif (http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/schmidt/2007/1211.html#top)
© 2007 Ned W. Schmidt
Editorial Archives (http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/schmidt/main.html)

[Valuegrowth]

I believe South American cornsupply will go up in 2013. Globally weather is good and we can expect higher globalcorn output as well. Weather pattern in USA also is good for corn harvest thisyear. Only weather shock will send corn prices higher.The U.S.D.A reported that corn farmers are expected tobring in a record crop this year. The agency said farmers are forecast todeliver 14 million bushels, beating the 2009 record of 13.1 billion bushels.Now top global banks also downgraded longer-term priceforecast for corn and soybean futures along with copper, gold and silver.In short Corn prices may correct significantly down. Evensoya bean prices will go down.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324688404578541392694039684.html

Bountiful CropForecasts Weigh on Corn Prices

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-06-16/record-soybean-glut-is-seen-worsening-as-china-s-appetite-eases.html

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-06-19/eastern-australia-set-for-wetter-three-months-boosting-crops.html

Eastern Australia Set for Wetter ThreeMonths, Boosting Crops

My ideas are not a recommendation to eitherbuy or sell any security, commodity or currency. Please do your own researchprior to making any investment decisions. Please note that I do not endorse ortake responsibility for material in the above hyper-linked sites.

[Valuegrowth]

http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/...cle4837728.ece (http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/industry-and-economy/agri-biz/tea-prices-gather-steam-at-kolkata-auction/article4837728.ece)

Tea prices gather steam at Kolkata auction.

http://www.insidefutures.com/article...RNAROUND?.html (http://www.insidefutures.com/article/974552/WILL%20LUMBER%20AND%20COFFEE%20TURNAROUND?.html)

WILL LUMBER AND COFFEE TURNAROUND?

[Valuegrowth]

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-06-27/corn-heads-for-longest-losing-streak-since-november-on-supply.html (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-06-27/corn-heads-for-longest-losing-streak-since-november-on-supply.html)

Corn Heads for Longest Losing Streak Since November on Supply

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-06-27/palm-oil-drops-to-one-month-low-on-rising-soybean-oil-supplies.html (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-06-27/palm-oil-drops-to-one-month-low-on-rising-soybean-oil-supplies.html)

Palm Oil Drops to One-MonthLow on Rising Soybean Oil Supplie

[Valuegrowth]

I believe there will be great demand for some soft commodities including emerging food related commodities in the coming decade. Just like stocks time to time there will be volatility due to change of supply and demand, over speculation and commodity derivatives.It is time to identify hidden gems in the commodity market. These hidden commodity gems will outperform other commodities in the coming decade.

Corn market was very beautiful in 2012. We cannot see beautiful market for corn in 2013 and2014.Corn prices will go down further. Only surprise climate threat can change the direction of corn market in the short run. . I believe there will be good demand for USA based corn this year when compare with 2012 due to attractive corn prices.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/100853267 (http://www.cnbc.com/id/100853267)

GRAINS- Fall-harvest corn plungesas USDA shocks with acres jump

http://www.supplymanagement.com/news/2013/price-of-premium-tea-rises-as-lack-of-rain-damages-crops/ (http://www.supplymanagement.com/news/2013/price-of-premium-tea-rises-as-lack-of-rain-damages-crops/)

Price of premium tea rises as lack of rain damages crops

http://www.businessweek.com/news/2013-06-28/coffee-falls-as-weakening-real-spurs-brazil-exports-sugar-drops (http://www.businessweek.com/news/2013-06-28/coffee-falls-as-weakening-real-spurs-brazil-exports-sugar-drops)

Coffee Falls as Weakening Real Spurs BrazilExports; Sugar Drops

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-06-28/canola-tumbles-to-16-month-low-as-rains-seen-aiding-canada-crop.html (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-06-28/canola-tumbles-to-16-month-low-as-rains-seen-aiding-canada-crop.html)

Canola Tumbles to 16-Month Low as Rains Seen Aiding Canada Crop

My ideas are not a recommendation to eitherbuy or sell any security, commodity or currency. Please do your own researchprior to making any investment decisions. Please note that I do not endorse ortake responsibility for material in the above hyper-linked sites.

[Valuegrowth]

After long time CBOT corn future contract went below 500 levels.



CBOT Corn

USd/bu.

491.25

-11.50

-2.29%

Dec 13




Actually I didn’t expect it to go below 500 so soon though Iexpected it.

Even Soya beans sister of Corn also going down now



CBOT Soybeans

USd/bu.

1,228.25

-22.50

-1.80%






CBOT Soybean Meal

USD/st

357.90

-10.50

-2.85%

Dec 13




Oats up.

My ideas are not a recommendation to eitherbuy or sell any security, commodity or currency. Please do your own researchprior to making any investment decisions. Please note that I do not endorse ortake responsibility for material in the above hyper-linked sites.

[Valuegrowth]

http://www.stuff.co.nz/nelson-mail/f...nfidence-on-up (http://www.stuff.co.nz/nelson-mail/features/primary-focus/8896033/Apple-growers-confidence-on-up)

Apple growers' confidence on up

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/...0FF3TX20130709 (http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/07/09/kenya-tea-idUSL6N0FF3TX20130709)

Kenya tea prices rise even while Egyptian buyers absent

http://www.fibre2fashion.com/news/te...news_id=148036 (http://www.fibre2fashion.com/news/textile-news/newsdetails.aspx?news_id=148036)

Global cotton prices will moderate during 2013-20: Report

http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/...rom-august-on- (http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/industry-and-economy/agri-biz/maize-prices-may-ease-from-august-on-)
global-supply/article4833251.ece

Maize prices may ease from August on global supply | Business Line

http://articles.economictimes.indiat...and-guar-ncdex (http://articles.economictimes.indiatimes.com/2013-07-08/news/40443735_1_fresh-export-demand-guar-ncdex)

India sugar, soybean, guar end down; spices up

My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security orcurrency. Please do your own research prior to making any investment decisions.Please note that I do not endorse or take responsibility for material in theabove hyper-linked sites.

[Valuegrowth]

http://cornandsoybeandigest.com/mark...-soybean-price (http://cornandsoybeandigest.com/marketing/returns-cash-rents-480-corn-price-1075-soybean-price)

Returns, Cash Rents at $4.80 Corn Price, $10.75 Soybean Price

http://in.reuters.com/article/2013/0...0FI2L020130717 (http://in.reuters.com/article/2013/07/17/india-corn-idINL4N0FI2L020130717)

Indian corn futures seen down on sowing progress

http://www.business-standard.com/art...1501068_1.html (http://www.business-standard.com/article/markets/domestic-tea-demand-to-touch-1-000-mn-kg-by-2017-ghatowar-113071501068_1.html)

Domestic tea demand to touch 1,000 mn kg by 2017: Ghatowar

http://www.economist.com/news/financ...ewed-awakening (http://www.economist.com/news/finance-and-economics/21581727-plenty-coffee-too-few-drinkers-brewed-awakening)

Coffee prices
Brewed awakening

[Valuegrowth]

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-08-14/cocoa-crunch-in-ivory-coast-heads-for-bull-market-commodities.html

Cocoa Crunch in Ivory Coast Heads for Bull Market: Commodities

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/07/31/...N0G12W520130731 (http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/07/31/indonesia-coffee-output-idUSL4N0G12W520130731)

Indonesia coffee output seen down 20 to 25 pct on wet weather -industry

http://www.business-standard.com/article/n...81000286_1.html (http://www.business-standard.com/article/news-ians/drought-affects-tea-production-in-china-113081000286_1.html)

Drought affects tea production in China

http://usa.chinadaily.com.cn/china/2013-08...h_bid=272545598 (http://usa.chinadaily.com.cn/china/2013-08/10/content_16885055.htm?bsh_bid=272545598)

Tea farms wither amid heat waves in E China

My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security, commodity or currency. Please do your own research prior to making any investment decisions. Please note that I do not endorse or take responsibility for material in the above hyper-linked sites.

[Valuegrowth]

Today Agri commodity future prices are falling. Almost all grain prices are down. Any reason for this? What happened to speculators who bet on some grains after Ukraine crisis?

[Valuegrowth]

Coffee futures in New York had the biggest two-day decline since 2010. Is it due to rains in Brazil, over supply or some other reasons? Some analysts are trying to tell that market is trading on the forecast for rain. Do you think so? Thanks.

[Valuegrowth]

http://www.agriculture.com/markets/analysi...ahead_9-ar42638 (http://www.agriculture.com/markets/analysis/corn/favable-summer-recd-crops-ahead_9-ar42638)

Favorable Summer, Record Crops Ahead

Please note that I do not endorse or take responsibility for material in the above hyper-linked site.

[Valuegrowth]

http://www.businessinsider.in/The-American-Farmland-Price-Boom-Is-Over/articleshow/33247099.cms
The American Farmland Price Boom Is Over.Please note that I do not endorse or take responsibility for material in the above hyper-linked site.

[Valuegrowth]

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-04-07/japan-and-australia-to-slash-tariffs-on-beef-cars-in-trade-deal.html

Australian Beef, Cheese Favored in Trade Deals With Japan, Korea

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-04-08/china-corn-glut-no-barrier-to-farmers-as-state-buys-more.html

China Corn Glut No Barrier to Farmers as State Buys More

Please note that I do not endorse or take responsibility for material in the above hyper-linked sites. Please do your own research.

[Valuegrowth]

http://www.farminguk.com/WorldNews/Russian-wheat-export-price-growth-to-stall-soon_8692.html

Russian wheat export price growth to stall soon (http://www.farminguk.com/WorldNews/Russian-wheat-export-price-growth-to-stall-soon_8692.html).
Please note that I do not endorse or take responsibility for material in the above hyper-linked sites. Please do your own research.

[Valuegrowth]

If farmers plant more acres of soya beans in 2014 average soybean prices for the 2014 marketing year would drop back to the $11 to $11.50 per bushel range. Grain and soybean futures fell Friday after better weather forecasts and concerns that China's demand for U.S. soybeans may ease. In the mean time U.S. cattle futures had a good day on Friday.

http://www.businessweek.com/ap/2014-04-11/grain-lower-livestock-higher

Grain lower, livestock higherMy ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security, commodity or currency. Please note that I do not endorse or take responsibility for material in the above hyper-linked site. Please do your own research.

[Valuegrowth]

http://www.forbes.com/sites/jamesconca/201...l-is-of-no-use/ (http://www.forbes.com/sites/jamesconca/2014/04/20/its-final-corn-ethanol-is-of-no-use/)

It's Final -- Corn Ethanol Is Of No Use

Please note that I do not endorse or take responsibility for material in the above hyper-linked site. Please do your own research.

[Valuegrowth]

There is a demand for tea stocks in India now. Shares of Indian tea companies have seen smart rally in past three months. These tea stocks have surged between 20-65% during the period. There could be more demand for tea stocks due to lower tea output in India. Currently there is a good demand for quality tea in tea auctions in India and Sri-Lanka. Even in Bangladesh there is good demand for tea now.

http://www.business-standard.com/article/markets/tea-stocks-brew-gains-amid-unpredictable-monsoons-114061200232_1.html


http://www.business-standard.com/article/news-cm/market-pares-gains-114062000445_1.html

http://in.reuters.com/article/2014/06/13/india-tea-auction-idINL4N0OU34820140613

My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security, commodity or currency. Please note that I do not endorse or take responsibility for material in the above hyper-linked sites. Please do your own research.

[Valuegrowth]

Recently there were rally in Agri commodities such as soya bean, corn and wheat. What happened to them suddenly? Was it due to short term speculation on Ukraine? We can see how vulnerable some commodities now?

http://www.forbes.com/sites/billconerly/2014/06/26/commodities-prices-why-do-they-shoot-up-and-then-collapse/
Commodities Prices: Why Do They Shoot Up And Then Collapse?http://www.producer.com/2014/06/crop-price-decline-stabilizes-but-rally-unlikely/Crop price decline stabilizes but rally unlikely.My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security, commodity or currency. Please note that I do not endorse or take responsibility for material in the above hyper-linked sites. Please do your own research.

[Valuegrowth]

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-07-01/soybeans-extend-slump-on-usda-data-as-corn-drops-to-5-month-low.html

Soybeans Extend Slump on USDA Data as Crop Also Falls

[Valuegrowth]

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-07-03/corn-nears-bear-market-on-outlook-for-biggest-ever-u-s-harvest.html

Corn Futures Enter Bear Market on Rising U.S. Stockpiles

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-07-03/cattle-at-record-signals-higher-beef-costs-for-july-4th-grillers.html

Cattle at Record Signals Higher Beef Costs for July 4th Grillers

Please note that I do not endorse or take responsibility for material in the above hyper-linked sites. Please do your own research.

[Valuegrowth]

Among commodities soft commodities such as Coco and Tea and live stocks will have strong support due to tight supply in some varieties. Coco, Tea and meat producers will benefit lot. Sugar too will have some support if we see some shortage towards end of this year.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-07-14/sugar-deficit-seen-by-rabobank-as-low-prices-reduce-production.html

Sugar Market Is Seen by Rabobank Shifting to Shortages

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[Sideshow Bob]

Just though I'd post here to break MarketWinner's 21 posts in a row.........

[Skol]

Miners getting into agriculture. I own AAC, but never made any money out of them.

http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2014-09-05/chinas-hunger-for-beef-turns-miners-into-cattle-sellers#r=hpf-s