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craic
28-04-2004, 09:55 PM
Anyone else out there riding this winner? Not a mention anywhere but couple of weeks ago it closed at 1690 and that was high - now 1950. At this rate I can afford to spray diesel on the weeds in my driveway.

craic
29-04-2004, 02:15 PM
NZR
29/04/2004
ADDRESS

REL: 1400 HRS The New Zealand Refining Company Limited

ADDRESS: NZR: Chairman's address to the AGM 29 April 2004

The New Zealand Refining Company Limited

Chairman's Address

This year, I have departed from tradition and have asked the Company's
General Manager, Thomas Zengerly to provide you with an update on the
Company's performance and other items of significance that the Company has
been involved in. I will concentrate on the strategic and governance aspects

You will note that the agenda is longer than usual. Some of the items will
no doubt raise issues for some. I will not discuss these items now, but as
we cover off on the agenda items, we will discuss the items before voting on
them.

Firstly though, a comment on our annual accounts. For 2003, we have
commenced a transition from our traditional focus on financial reporting to
triple bottom reporting. We as a major industry in New Zealand, recognise
that stakeholders, want more information and Annual Reports are the
appropriate place to provide information about Social, Environmental and
Economic information.

In February we reported the results for the year. To recap, the company made
an Operating Surplus before tax of $59.6 million, 2.5% higher than 2002. The
final dividend was 60 cents, with full imputation credits.

When combined with the interim dividend of 60 cent we paid out 78% of net
profit after tax, this is less than what we have achieved in the past but
still an excellent outcome.

The directors were concerned that 2004 could be quite a demanding year from a
financial perspective. High exchanges rates and a major shut down being to
key factors to consider. We feel far more comfortable now that we have
completed the first quarter and are well into the second quarter. Refining
margins have been high and the New Zealand dollar is now weaker against the
USD. The shutdown is due to commence next week.

Corporate Governance has been a topic high on the agenda of many boardrooms
this year. We are in the process of making some changes to Board
composition, committees etc, in order to comply with NZX rules. This process
will be completed by the October deadline. I agree with recent comments made
by the recent comments by Sir Ron Brierley regarding directors reiterate that
rules and regulations don't make a person honest or make them more
trustworthy.

Good Directors and Managers know what is right or wrong and value personal
integrity very highly. On behalf of the Directors of your Company, I can
state that we will comply with the rules and appendices of the New Zealand
Exchange, but I will also add that our standards and requirements for good
governance have not changed because of these new rules.

In early 2003, we took steps to ensure the Independence of our Auditors was
not compromised and adopted many of the principles in Sarbanes Oxley. Our
Internal Audit programme is comprehensive, based on risk assessments covering
all aspects of our business. We have extensive quality assurance, safety and
environmental programmes in place. I am not saying we are perfect - many of
the aspects like safety is a never ending journey - what I am saying is that
as professionals tasked with creating long term benefits for stakeholders, we
are pro-active and we do not wait for rules

Last year, the Board approved the Future Fuels project which is one of the
largest industrial projects in New Zealand in the last decade - allocating a
total of $180 million to the project. Foster Wheeler were appointed the main
Engineering, Procurement and Construction contactor. Progress to date has
been good. We are still on target in terms of safety performance, schedule
and cost. Thomas will provide further details in his presentation.

Today the Minister of Energy will announce that the Company has been awarded
1.2 million carbon credits. This is subject to completing a co-generation
plant at Marsden Point. NZRC staff and HRL, an Australian organisation with
expertise an

Ripping
29-04-2004, 09:50 PM
I bought this years ago.. couldn't bear to part with it... making me around 10% a year in dividends... a 37% increase in share price... and maybe another decent payout in September. sweet.

craic
12-05-2004, 05:04 PM
Back up another 40cps today, clearly on the back of rising prices. Anyone like to suggest a good exit price? I mean at what point does speculation end and common sense take over? I could do with about 40,000 in my pocket to buy up some WRI when they plummet back to 120cps.

johna
15-07-2004, 11:16 AM
Seems to still be gpoing pretty well, now I really wish I had bought some in Jan at under $15.

What happens to this company in terms of exchange rates? I suppose they just pass everything through, but in general they would be better with a higher NZ$?

craic
15-07-2004, 12:00 PM
The major shareholding is with the oil companies that control the pump price - oil goes up the pump price goes up - oil comes down, well, wait a few days, think about and then reduce the price. This way the more volatility, the more profit and a big divvy for the shareholders - the oil companies and me. Now at 2,000cps and rising

Steve
30-09-2004, 08:35 PM
disappointing to see that the STUNNING interim result managed to not even get 1 comment...

Disc: Hold a few

k1w1
01-10-2004, 09:16 AM
Give us your comments Steve, I am interested

craic
01-10-2004, 09:40 AM
Would love to see the interim report or the slip that arrives about the same time as the dividend but I still wait and hope. The money has arrived and thats the main thing.
Sorry I didn't know you meant the [u]old </u>interim report from last month.

Steve
02-10-2004, 03:46 PM
Yep, the interim announcement was a month ago and not a squeek on here.

The interim profit up near 150%, despite the scheduled maintenance shut down. P/E ratio is very reasonable, interim dividend was 5% alone not counting any final dividend.

My analysis places a share price of up to $30 on this company based on the current fundamentals.

Craic, you obviuosly follow NZR, what value do you have?

Who remembers the days when the share price hit $40.00?!

craic
02-10-2004, 08:49 PM
Not too long ago we were getting dire predictions from management about the costs of maintenance etc and the fact that profits would be down and the shareholders could not expect the high dividends that they had been getting etc. I wondered at the time if this was a move to reduce the shareholding by reducing the price thus allowing those in the know to clean up. My paranoia knows no bounds but I am glad I hung on to my couple of thousand shares.I see from the half-year report that the number of shareholders has reduced from 2554 to 2415 in the year or 5%

Steve
05-10-2004, 09:06 AM
Where did all the sellers go yesterday? They all cleared out, and someone stepped up to the plate offering 20,000 @ $25.00 = $500,000!

scamper
05-10-2004, 10:18 AM
Yes, it is all a bit astonishing. depth shows 5000 buys at the current price or marginally above, and only 400 sells at 2350. And, if this is not a big enough jump, the next sell batch is still as steve reported: 20k @ $25!

I've only held ~1350 of these since May 02, but they make me very happy... Cheers.

wsheridan
05-10-2004, 11:15 AM
NZR's a stock that has been copnsistently been highlighted on this site as a good long term investment - and I have consistently ignored it [B)]

Well done to its backers!

craic
05-10-2004, 02:45 PM
An interesting aspect of the interim report is a reduction in the number of shareholders from 2554 to 2415 or - 5%. This leads me to believe that there is one or more out there with a constant buy order on the market, ready to mop up any lots. I've only got a couple of thousand but they are not getting mine.

scamper
08-10-2004, 11:09 AM
Hello the Happy Holders!!
What a glorious day... Currently buyer at $24, and lowest seller is $35. I must say that the buyer wont be getting any of mine either. Wonder how I'll feel when the buyer is bidding $35.

Ripping
08-10-2004, 02:15 PM
$24 been and gone.. buyers at 24.51, next seller at $26.. dayum.. !!

Felonius
08-10-2004, 03:25 PM
Well done Craic,
Try widdling on your weeds and you'll have even more money in the bank !
Felonius

Phaedrus
08-10-2004, 04:30 PM
On the SCT Chart thread, K1w1 asked about trend following indicators for the current NZR uptrend.
K1w1, I have plotted the 20% Trailing Stop that you mentioned - you can see that it is way too far from the current price action to be useful. A 10% Trailing Stop is much better, as is a 12x ATR Trailing Stop. Another suitable indicator here would be a 100 day Simple Moving Average (plotted in red). A tentative trendline is plotted in light green. Prices falling below any of these 4 indicators would be logical Sell signals for this stock.
The situation here is similar to that of MHI. A confirmed trendline (dark green) was rendered obsolete by the acceleration of the stock's uptrend, so a new steeper trendline closer to the price action was required. This new trendline is unconfirmed as yet.
There are of course plenty of other good trend indicators. The chart shows just a few of the simpler ones.

http://home.ripway.com/2004-7/148483/NZR001.gif

k1w1
08-10-2004, 04:38 PM
Thanks Phaedrus for explaining . That share price is in such a steep climb that I am getting nosebleeds just looking at the graph!

craic
09-10-2004, 09:53 AM
This TV special addresses the state of the oil industry, an incessantly
pressing issue facing our global economy and environment. "PBS: Extreme
Oil" offers insight into the technology, history, processes and current
challenges of the oil industry.

The series, and this thorough website, take viewers on a world 'oil
tour'. Travel below ground, through pipelines, in barrels, aboard ships,
across oceans as well as into the minds of those who work on the production
and distribution of what has long been known as 'black gold'. The site
features a fascinating history of the industry, an education into the
science behind the business, as well as highlighting crucial environmental
issues facing the oil trade and its diminishing resources.

http://www.pbs.org/wnet/extremeoil/

Steve
11-10-2004, 08:38 AM
Phaedrus, I note that you haven't adjusted your chart for the $1.00 (plus full imps) dividend in september. Any reason for this?

PS: welcome back!

Phaedrus
11-10-2004, 09:03 AM
Yes. Oversight. NZR looks even better when adjusted. I won't post the chart again though - I don't want to exacerbate K1w1's epistaxis!

craic
11-10-2004, 10:13 AM
NZR
11/10/2004
GENERAL

REL: 0828 HRS The New Zealand Refining Company Limited

GENERAL: NZR: High margins continue for NZRC

Throughput for the two month period ending August 2004 was 6,561,000 barrels
(same period 2003 6,660,000). The lower throughput was due to lower volumes
of blendstock being received and constraints resulting from the introduction
of new fuel specifications. These constraints will not be overcome until the
start-up of the Future Fuels Project in 2005.

The margin achieved for the period of USD6.55 (2003 USD3.05) was the highest
for the year. Noting that the margin reported for the two month period ending
June was adversely affected by the shutdown.

refer www.nzrc.co.nz for the last three years Throughput and Margin
information

A copy of this release can be requested from lcr@nzx.com.
End CA:00106315 For:NZR Type:GENERAL Time:2004-10-11:08:28:26

craic
11-10-2004, 11:55 AM
And now the price is 2700cps. How high can you fly?

Steve
11-10-2004, 12:04 PM
I notice that this recent upward action in the shareprice has happened since I announced that my analysis a week or so ago that I valued NZR around $30[^]

Should I give up my night job?[?]

lol

craic
11-10-2004, 12:09 PM
Certainl not because you are WAAAAAAAAAAAAy below the mark

Steve
11-10-2004, 12:16 PM
Yes, I do remember those days gone by when NZR was above $40. Then again, I also remember when NZR was $1.50...

k1w1
11-10-2004, 03:52 PM
Yet again the SP in a NZX company jumps for no good reason. Then a positive announcement is made "to keep the market fully informed". Clearly some were fully informed prior to others.

Steve
11-10-2004, 04:48 PM
quote:Originally posted by k1w1

Yet again the SP in a NZX company jumps for no good reason. Then a positive announcement is made "to keep the market fully informed". Clearly some were fully informed prior to others.


K1w1, my opinion is that there is a good reason why the shareprice jumped. NZR is fundamentally under-valued and has been for quite a while, a fact IMHO which investors are begining to wake-up to given the current econimic climate. The positive announcement released today in not really that unexpected, especially given the previous few production figures released...

marcus_milo
11-10-2004, 09:11 PM
I am a little confused, and perhaps someone can help. I see that on the direct borking web site the full year profit for NZR is reported as being 71.225 million. Now this appears to be the last half year result (34.278) plus the last *full* year result (36.947) added together!!!

Am I right in assuming this, or have I got something wrong. If I am right then this is a little screwed up, is it not?

(This is no reflection on Direct Broking, as I am aware that most brokers get their financial figures via a service)

Steve
11-10-2004, 09:34 PM
mm, you are correct in your assumption.

This sort of issue (reported financial data integrety) is being currently being discussed in another thread.

craic
11-10-2004, 09:44 PM
Yes you appear to be right.The operating surpluses after tax are
6 months to 30 June 2004 $34.278m
6months to 31 Dec. 2003 $22.86m
That amounts to $57.134m for the 12 month period BUT this is the half-year period so the full year result will be to December and that should be a cracker - close to double last years result

Coaster
11-10-2004, 09:44 PM
One for NZR'ers:

http://www.aireview.com/index.php?act=view&catid=8&id=705

quote:Over 50% upside seen in NZ Refining Co
While refining margins have been strengthening for the past few years, the analysts at CSFB have taken a number of factors into consideration and as a result see potential share price upside in excess of 50% to New Zealand Refining Company’s (NZR.NZ) current share price.

Price elasticity of demand has been low recently, the analysts point out and this has driven changes to their refining margin forecasts with the outlook seen as generally improving.

CSFB new mid-cycle refining margin forecast for the Asia Pacific region has risen by 40% to US$3.50/bbl, while FY05 forecasts have been increased by 60% to US$4.00/bbl.

Incorporating the new Singapore refining margins into earnings forecasts sees FY05 profit expectations rising by a whopping 277% and FY06 by 121%.

The company’s valuation rises 86% to NZ$32.00 and its target by 80% to NZ$34.70, not bad for a stock that closed yesterday at NZ$22.25.

marcus_milo
11-10-2004, 10:31 PM
quote:Originally posted by craic

Yes you appear to be right.The operating surpluses after tax are
6 months to 30 June 2004 $34.278m
6months to 31 Dec. 2003 $22.86m
That amounts to $57.134m for the 12 month period BUT this is the half-year period so the full year result will be to December and that should be a cracker - close to double last years result


well you can do a simple extrapolation from last year and come up with a year end result of around 89 million :)

digger
16-10-2004, 07:49 AM
Craic i see nzr has gone up 26% in the last week according to NZHearld. Why have u gone quiet on this one? You haven't gone stupid and sold out just as the rise occured.
I have no investment in NZR but liked your reasoning in the past as to it's value.All in NOG and some Aus oilers,but think that NZR and drilling rigs are also in the right game for the future.

craic
16-10-2004, 11:42 AM
Digger, I have gone silent because there is little more to say. Not many of these shares on the market anyway. Thanks to this and one or two others, my portfolio has grown $22,000 in just two months. Not bad for an Old-Age Pensioner. I just need MHI to go through the roof folowed by CEN, PGG and a couple of others and I will be able to get off this monotonous bread and dripping diet at last.

Longtack
16-10-2004, 02:37 PM
Bread & dripping Craic? Nowt wrong with it lad. Luxury I say.
Stay on it and top up NZR with the dough you save.

scamper
25-11-2004, 12:12 PM
o gosh! Up another ~5% to $29.50. If nose-bleeds are contagious, start searching for buckets and mops.
Thanks to posters for sensible discussions. I'm practically swooning over the thought of bread and dripping upgrades, and could well have sold out in the general excitement of the last few months.
If they keep the divis respectable though, I'm going to have to keep them forever, having an average entry of 1627.
Cheers .

Ripping
25-11-2004, 03:57 PM
good to see the price moving again here.
shame i sold mine two weeks ago.
good that i bought NOG options with the money.
and that NOGOC has risen 30% in that time.
would like to dip in again here tho... I like the divi's too

craic
26-11-2004, 05:35 PM
Seems that the reason for the jump was nothing more exciting than an article in the Dominion that highlighted the recent high margins report.

k1w1
26-11-2004, 06:12 PM
No, I think its more than the high margins. Its the fact that the NZ dollar being high is more than compensated for by the margins. You can't suddenly fix neglected oil infrastructure, nor speedily address the demand made by Chinese industrialisation. So its sustainable for the immediate duration.

In the middle turn, the debottlenecking of the pipeline will produce an annual increased return of about 20% per annum. In Buffett terms it puts a moat around NZR from domestic competition. Who can get a tank farm big enough to service Auckland built under the RMA ? How expensive is it to tanker petrol from New Plymouth or Tauranga when someone can just pump it down a pipeline to Auckland and from there to other areas as required.

The other moat building exercise is the new low emmission fuels project which will be able to be met without capital raising from debt and cash flows. This will narrow the range of refineries capable of sourcing alternative supplies to Marsden Point which has negotiated margins with Govt prior to agreeing to the upgrade. So will be harder to undercut with the new higher standards fuel in NZ will have to meet.

The highest cost of the refinery is electricity so the joint venture regarding electricity co-generation using oil or wood chips makes sense in terms of keeping long term costs down.

Makes for a sound long term put in your bottom draw share, especially with the fully imputed dividends.

Chris
27-11-2004, 04:32 AM
you can bung on top of that the possibility of LNG imports into Marsden point. More than likely to go on NZR land and be a joint venture.

Its intersting to note that NZR's market share is actually slipping though due to it running at maximum but the market still growing. But with the new pumps on the pipeline it should be able to shift more product down it even if it is imported into Marsden. They still get a fee per bbl.

Not too sure about the comments on the project being funded from cash flows... the clean fuel project cost 180m (read NR) and profits for the half year are only 35m (not that bad though).

k1w1
27-11-2004, 08:24 AM
Chris, sorry it was not that clear. Funded by debt and cash flows means that the banks will advance them the funds and that the interest and repayments can be met from cashflow without requiring further capital raising such as a rights issue.

craic
27-11-2004, 02:21 PM
Kiwi, I did not say that the price rise was on higher margins - but that it was in response to an article in the Dominion. The article extolled the benefits of the margins etc. The article headlined the company at the top of the business news page and drew it to the attention of the readers. I am always surprised at the good companies, making good profits and capital gains who are left without any mention in the media while some cr appy little outfits gain all sorts of publicity for no better reason than that someone somewhere has a vested interest in pushing the name and the journos don't know enouigh to know that they are being used

craic
16-12-2004, 02:28 PM
And the price is now $31 and should rise in expectation of a decent dividend.

NZR
16/12/2004
FORECAST

REL: 1336 HRS The New Zealand Refining Company Limited

FORECAST: NZR: NZRC expects Profit of $90-95 mln after tax for 2004

The Directors of The New Zealand Refining Company have considered forecasts
of the full year results for 2004 and provide the following information under
the continuous disclosure rules of the NZX:

Exceptionally high international refining margins in 2004, high utilisation
and operational excellence have contributed to a higher projected revenue
from refining operations to $230-240 mln compared to $154 mln for 2003. This
is expected to result in an after tax profit of $90 to $95 million for
2004.The higher earnings will assist in funding the Future Fuels project
which is on track for commissioning during the third quarter of 2005. The
total project cost is expected to be $180 mln. To date $100 mln have been
spent.

The Directors will make an announcement regarding dividends on 24 February
2005.

At this stage a modest increase for the dividend is anticipated and a return
to more typical trading conditions in 2005 is expected.
End CA:00109542 For:NZR Type:FORECAST Time:2004-12-16:13:36:24

Placebo
16-12-2004, 02:38 PM
quote: a return
to more typical trading conditions in 2005 is expected.


Is this market speak for "take the money and run"? This thing has doubled in a year. I can't post charts. But if I could, it would show a fairly flat line through 2003 and a rapid uptrend that has seen it more than double in price since the end of 2003.

If a "return
to more typical trading conditions in 2005 is expected", perhaps now is the time to book the profit and look for other opportunities?

Chris
16-12-2004, 05:14 PM
good jump in price today but one has to question that even if we do get a $4 divvy this year (which based on the past policies of the oil companies to take their fair share up front) is more than likely to happen then what will happen next year? I suspect that margins might ease a bit and the profits will drop... mind you, this year was a shut down year with the extra costs and loss of production for a month...

Keep up the good work guys.

craic
16-12-2004, 05:53 PM
Ignore the cautions about future profits. I have followed this one as closely as anyone and they ALWAYS issue these cautions. In the past it has been a need to introduce new technology or replace parts of the refinery or something else.

Chris
17-12-2004, 05:05 AM
craic. Then a fool and their money would have been easily parted back in 99 when it was issued that refinery margins were falling.

Traditionally refinery margins in the region are stable at around $2/bbl. This year has been an exception due to high demand from China. Check out how many refinerys are being built in China at the moment... heaps of the things.

In my opinion, the market will turn into an over supply mode over the next 3 years and margins will fall.

Of course there are things such as the pipeline which will be providing increased thruput soon to help out the poor aucklanders.

The refinery is pretty cautious with their predictions (you are correct) but I have seen situations where its more benificial for the refinery to turn petrol into oil rather than the other way around.

Those oil markets are a funny old thing sometimes.

Stock Man
17-12-2004, 07:51 AM
NZR has had a great run this year. By my calculations to date this year alone NZR has put on 106.7%

craic
17-12-2004, 09:20 AM
Chris, whatever else, this is a monopoly. Where else do you get your fuel and who would buy it? The major oil companies own the refinery - or 70% of it - If they start buying from independant overseas sources then they kill the goose that lays the golden egg.

Chris
17-12-2004, 09:28 AM
true... but it depends if they have better geese in their flock that they wish to fatten.. especially if the others are 100% owned by them.

k1w1
17-12-2004, 04:38 PM
Chris,

The reason why NZR did Future Fuels is that there are very few alternative refineries in the region that can meet the new NZ standard. Although you are correct that there are a number of new refineries in china but to a lower standard.

So Craic is right about a reinforced monopoly. That is the significance of the pipeline as well.

When they get some co-generational deal to secure reasonably priced long term power then this is a safe long term share to put in the bottom draw.

Chris
18-12-2004, 11:18 AM
I think it is safe at 15.... not so safe at 30.

craic
09-02-2005, 01:18 PM
Back up 100 cps to 3300 cps and this miust be just days before a result is published? They usually pay out end of March beginning of April. Last year the announcement was made on 26 February. Maybe the tea lady is getting in early

Chris
09-02-2005, 01:47 PM
I think it is more than likely that the tea lady has read the morning newspapers and looked at the BP and Shell articles stating that they have made a killing on the back of high refining margins.

Not a good start to the year in regards to reliability though... heard that they ran out of juice... and then they had a couple fo oil spills into the harbour too...

Not that good when the crowd down the road are looking at putting in a coal fired power station. The greenies will be chasing this one I think...

Chris

scamper
09-02-2005, 02:17 PM
Just checked a December press release and a divi announcement is planned for 24 Feb:
"At this stage a modest increase for the dividend is anticipated ..."

Given that the last four divs have been 50, 60, 60 and 100 cps, but that the share price has doubled, I wonder what "a modest increase" means?

If it is a similar div to share price proportion that is modestly increased, could we anticipate 210 cps? I rather think not, but good fun dreaming...

Chris
09-02-2005, 04:55 PM
what was the interium one? I would imagine that they would round it up to around the $3.50 level (total for the year).... they like to pay out 100%...

scamper
09-02-2005, 05:00 PM
Sept 02 = 100 cps
Mar 03 = 50 cps
Sept 03 = 60 cps
Mar 04 = 60 cps
Sept 04 = 100 cps
This is as far as my records go, and if it ain't correct, my records are wrong... [:0]

craic
10-02-2005, 07:26 AM
One back from your dates is
28.3.02 1250 cps. Lets hope that's the one they beat this time.

Steve
10-02-2005, 01:23 PM
As a NZR holder, I am not too concerned by how much they INCREASE the dividend...:)

k1w1
16-02-2005, 04:07 PM
Up $1.50 today on highest refining margins ever !

scamper
16-02-2005, 05:08 PM
Some rough looks backward:

Announcement 11 Oct that margins for 2 months ending august were $6.55.
Shareprice jumped from ~$22 to ~$27. :)

Announcement 23 Nov that margins for 2 months ending Oct 23 were $5.49.
Shareprice moved from ~$27 to ~$30. :) :)

Announcement 16 Dec; exceptionally high refining margins ... expect a modest increase in div..."
Shareprice move to ~$32. :D

Announcement 16 Feb margins for 2 months ending Dec highest of year at $8.86.
Shareprice moves to $34.50. :D :D

Query 1: I wonder if they knew on 16 Dec that the margins would be as high as $8.86 (very large increase from previous of $5.49).
If not, perhaps we can see much more than "a modest increase" in div?

Query 2: Does today's shareprice movement strike anyone else as pretty quiet for record-breaking news? (Maybe more rise tomorrow?)

Roll on 24 Feb!! [:p] [:X]

Steve
17-02-2005, 07:08 AM
Who else remembers when the share price was over $40, back some 10+ years ago?

Is the current situation similar to that time?

scamper
22-02-2005, 12:04 PM
well, folks, Scamper's betting that there is less than an hour to dream on...
I'm going for a 200 cps share div.
Any advances on 200?

Steve
22-02-2005, 12:48 PM
Let's not get too greedy!;)

Any dividend is going to be ALL good...:)

Chris
22-02-2005, 12:54 PM
cant be a board meeting today...no one has come out at lunch time to place their share orders....

I think meetings are usually held on the last Thursday of the month.... could be mistaken...

Often they dont know what the actual margin is until 2 months after the event (pre and post running of feed stocks)... it gets tricky...

Place gets shut down this weekend to do some work... could be expensive during times of high margins...

scamper
22-02-2005, 01:50 PM
Yep, you're right. announcement re div due 24 Feb. sorry 'bout the false alarm...

craic
24-02-2005, 10:38 AM
At what time - 4.55pm?

Chris
24-02-2005, 11:44 AM
usually around 3ish from distant memory. I am guessing a profit of around 98m (after tax)for the year... that would give a divvy of around $4 (full imputed) but reading between the lines I would think that the directors are going to keep some money for debottle necking as it looks like cogen is not an option at the moment due to not enough gas (waiting for a decent supply)

I think we might see a final one of 2.50 (with a $1 interium) giving a yield of close to 10% after tax.... better than money in the bank at this stage... but similar to an investment in Metropolis (high yeild but may not get your capital back)

JMO of course.

Chris

Steve
24-02-2005, 12:29 PM
quote:Originally posted by belgarion

Anyone remember this thread ... http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/topic.asp?TOPIC_ID=17076&whichpage=1 ... ;) ... Man I got bashed on it ... :D


Come on Belg, that was over 2 years ago! Remember that people in the NZ market have a VERY short memory span...

Chris
24-02-2005, 01:29 PM
8.33 after tax isnt a bad return for this year....

craic
24-02-2005, 02:08 PM
That'll do me.
NZR
24/02/2005
FLLYR

REL: 1342 HRS The New Zealand Refining Company Limited

FLLYR: NZR: NZRC Full Year profit $97.5m Dividend 190cps

FY to 31/12/2004 $97.5m ($36.9m) +200% Div 200cps

LISTED ISSUER: The New Zealand Refining Company Limited

Which is it?

Chris
24-02-2005, 02:25 PM
the $2 is consistant throughout most of the document.... dunno where the 1.90 came from? DM care to comment?

craic
25-02-2005, 09:41 AM
The New Zealand Refining Company Limited Announcement (issued @ 8:32am)
NZR25/02/2005DIVIDEND REL: 0832 HRS The New Zealand Refining Company Limited DIVIDEND: NZR: NZRC confirms dividend is 200cps The Headline of the announcement made on the 24th February 2005 wasincorrect. The dividend amount is 200 cps not the 190 cps stated. The Companyapologises for the confusion caused by this error.End CA:00111947 For:NZR Type:DIVIDEND Time:2005-02-25:08:32:41

scamper
25-02-2005, 10:55 AM
Is anyone planning to offload some (or already done so)any time soon?
How are the faithful coping?!

Steve
25-02-2005, 12:16 PM
Nope! I'm hanging on to mine and are in for the ride...

JAMP
04-06-2005, 01:00 PM
I don't know how, but I managed to buy into NZR just prior to the announcement that margins (http://www.nzx.com/market/market_announcements/by_company?id=116219) for Mar05/Apr05 remain high. I can't recall having ever purchased a share selling for over $5, so to purchase a share at $33.40 is something of a leap into the unknown for me.

As a newcomer, it will also be interesting to see how the shareprice responds to any weakness in the NZD against the USD. One would think that subsequent exchange rate weakness should support the recent rally. It may even be a driver for pushing the shareprice onto bigger and better things.

I seem to recall the annual meeting fielded calls from the floor for the share to be split to increase liquidity. From memory they made all the right noises, so it will be interesting to see whether they act accordingly. I am not holding my breath on this one...

Regards JAMP
NZX: FTX MCH MVN NZR PPG RBD SAN SKX SPE SPN
NZAX: CVT
Unlisted: BRK

craic
04-06-2005, 04:20 PM
notice issued in the past couple of days to the effect that high margins were maintained. Up 275cps friday to friday, not a bad sort of a rise. I also noted that the rise preceded the announcement to some degree. Dividend in September might be another 200 cps?
This company is over 70% owned by the major oil companies so there will be little interest in a share split to attract Joe Bloggs.

K9
05-06-2005, 10:03 PM
quote:Originally posted by belgarion

Bought as many as I could when I started the 'energy doom and gloom' thread. Those supplying my borrowing thought that the price of oil would fall, yes FALL, when america invaded Iraq. My yeild now is just beautiful. I like cash. Now I sit.


:D:D:D
and what did you say oil would do to the US/Japanese economies and the DOW? Both those economies have been trucking along very well, the DOW is up nearly 45% since that thread. (shakes head and laughs)


The following from Belgarion on said "energy doom and gloom" thread......

"Is nobody doing the maths here? Check out US (and others) falling inventories. Oil companies are hedging that next year they'll be able to stock up at lower prices. Will they? Remember many economies, US and Japan, for example have a direct relationship between growth and the price of oil. Oh and so does the DOW, S&P and oil prices.

BTW Capitalist, like to see your numbers (or even your logic) to support your view that everything will be hunky-dory Oil futures are fairly bullish at present even though the the Iraq issue is likely to be resolved within a 6 month period. Thats an interesting one to explain."



[^]Very interesting indeed.
BTW that is when he also said he would sell down all of his stock holdings;), and maybe buy TEL:D

R2
06-06-2005, 12:51 AM
[K9 Quote - Oil companies are hedging that next year they'll be able to stock up at lower prices]

What does that mean ?

Oil companies want the price to stay up cos they own reserves, and are able to extract otherwise uneconomic deposits.

Refineries are dependant on reliability & throughput that is all.

Maximum throughput at maximum margins are all you can hope for and currently that aint bad. They are nothing but a cash cow and I would think the Oil Co's want every drop of dividend out to make up for red ink on their marketing margins - does anyone else see NZR as a great defensive stock to buy even at current prices at this point of the economic cycle ?

K9
06-06-2005, 01:51 PM
Don`t ask me, I`m not that dumb

Ask the writer Belgarion...it was his call[xx(]



Compared to Europe, the US and particularily Japan has been doing quite nicely EVEN with high OIL prices.

duncan macgregor
06-06-2005, 02:34 PM
The price of oil will only increase in the long term. Short term fluctuations will continue, but long term the price will be sky high. A company finding oil that is uneconomic today will find that tomorrow it becomes a cash cow. The world will run out of oil in the end, with great wars fought over the remaining stocks.
We will produce alternatives, but to counter that we will always have a great demand for remaining resources. The share market will treat the people well that can visualise this. The retailers of oil and refineries will depend on other aspects, it is the companies with oil in the ground that will be the big winners the large refineries will go out of business.

R2
07-06-2005, 01:46 AM
Good post DM, if you read it with a deep voice it sounds like the begining of another Peter Jackson triolgy...

Your points strike me as completely logical e.g. oil will run out one day and the price will be unlikely to go down.

The 'great wars' bit sounds useful in terms of trading gold stocks, perhaps we will get to participate in the new economy after all.

Don't agree that the refineries will go bust before the oil runs out cos it needs to be refined and those who own the oil in the ground also own the refineries. My guess is that will be around 2050.

Which brings me back to NZR; given that the current price is based on expected profitability and dividend payment, why is this not a good time to purchase as apposed to say when the stock was $14 and NZR announced that they may have to halt dividends due to capital expenditure requirements (about 18 months ago I think).

No one seems to know, I guess because $30+ sounds like more than you'd pay for 3 large pizzas. Think I'll buy some more, if I didn't think it was a good investment at $30+ then I guess I'd be selling what I do hold, or is that too obvious ?

craic
07-06-2005, 10:04 AM
Going up again this morning in spite of all the rubbish posted here. All you have to remember is that NZR is an effective monopoly (2) It is owned more than 70% by its primary customers, the three or four big oil companies, Shell BP etc.,(3) Any extra costs can be immediately applied at the pump and customers must pay or walk (4) If they put the price up a tad too soon or keep it up a tad too long, well, its just a little more profit. All the philosophical arguments about world events, supplies, alternatives and the like are of no consequence to you and me as we will have plenty of time to take cover in the event of disaster but right now just sit back and watch those dollars and cents rolling in.

R2
10-06-2005, 09:00 PM
Did a little more research and then bought a few more. Certainly pleased I did now.

My strategy, for what it is worth, is to hold until 12-18 month before the next Olympics, at which point I think demand from China will start to ease.

May hold longer as World refinery capacity needs to increase by 24% to meet predicted 2015 demand.

As it costs 3-4 times as much to build a new one as it does to expand and existing one,many refineries will be undertaking and paying for expansion out of their fat margins,I think a nice little refinery that isn't going to spend capital on expansion or sour crude conversion capability but rather pay dividends sounds good !

Any differing views ?

craic
13-06-2005, 11:21 AM
And the magic 4000cps has been reached again.

Chris
22-06-2005, 05:17 PM
Well... I have to eat my words... I for one didnt think that we would see prices like this again.

A couple of interesting things to consider though... Green house gas... yes I know that they have an agreement with the Government but are they keeping too it? Are they still striving for best in class energy efficieny and also the deal that the govt gave them mentioned carbon credits for co-gen... looks like that has been shelved...

On the up side... big land holding in the very expensive Marsden port area.

Increased pipe line capacity which I am sure is being sucked up by the Auckland crowd... for those who are interested, have a look at the AIA throughput charts and it will give you some idea as to the growth of the pipeline... it may however be at maximum capacity by 2009... which is good and bad..

Anyway... only a few days left of the half year.. I am going to predict the profit for the 6 months... I was pretty close with the full year so here goes...

Revenue 143m
Costs 62m
EBIT 81m

Int divvy $2.50

Full year profit 150m.. final divvy $3.

Just thoughts... but still a 15% return

craic
22-06-2005, 06:10 PM
I can live with that, but, I am more inclined to believe that it will be $2.

winner69
22-06-2005, 08:33 PM
Caltex Aussie say their profits will be less this year and shareprice took a ahmmering

Reasons cited .... forecasts in respect of
external factors such as refining and marketing margins, freight costs and foreign exchange
rates.

These apply to NZR????

craic
22-06-2005, 09:30 PM
No.

Chris
23-06-2005, 08:28 AM
Winner... actually the answer is yes.

USD strongly effects the profit of NZR. Their fees are recieved in USD so a shift from their "hopeful" 59c range to the current 72ish knocks or about 1.50NZD per bbl or 5m nzd per month..

Freight costs I belive will work in the favour of NZR but without seeing some WS rates I wouldnt know.

Marketing costs wont effect it.

Refining margins may have an impact on Caltex Aussie if they have to import product which I believe they are in that situation at the moment.

craic
23-06-2005, 09:33 AM
The answer is still no. NZR is a refining monopoly in NZ. Caltex Australia is a fuel company.
Read the notices
The New Zealand Refining Company Limited Announcement (issued @ 9:38am)
NZR02/06/2005GENERAL REL: 0938 HRS The New Zealand Refining Company Limited GENERAL: NZR: High Margins for the March/April Period Year to date throughput is close to plan. Throughput for the two month periodending April 2005 was 6.378 million barrels. The impact of shipping delayshas been mitigated by higher than planned production. Margins continued to strengthen from the begining of the year, providing anexcellent result for the March/April period. Since then margins have taperedoff to around the USD6.00 level. The average exchange rate for the two month period was .7247. The Year toDate average being .7190. A full copy of this release can be requested from Listed Company Relations byemailing lcr@nzx.com.End CA:00116219 For:NZR Type:GENERAL Time:2005-06-02:09:38:43

Chris
23-06-2005, 09:42 AM
Craic. Caltex Aussie are an integrated fuel company with refinerys and marketing (no oil fields)

From my earlier posts I am still prediciting a better year than last year... major factor to include is no total refinery shut down... however... the new plant is coming on line very soon so it will be interesting to see what hiccups that is going to give us!!

Neo-Con
06-07-2005, 08:47 PM
I bought a small parcel of this stock today, I know I am a bit late to the party (they have put on 30%ish in the last month)but I think it will keep growing for a couple of reasons

I saw some analysis on growth in oil demand v growth in refining capacity. Growth in oil demand is expected to be somewhat higher than growth in refining capacity. In fact some ppl think that the current high oil prices are more to do with lack of refining capacity than they are to do with fundamental lack of oil. Basic economic rules would suggest that given this demand pressure refining margins long term will only continue to increase. This increase as well as the weakening of the kiwi dollar (all their income is calculated in USD) will be likely to result in a growing bottom line for NZR. Even based on current earnings they are cheap (PE of 11ish) when you factor in expected medium term earnings growth you know you are on to a winner.

Lawso
10-07-2005, 06:32 PM
I hope no NZR holders had a heart attack when they read the Sunday Star-Times piece today, headed Oil's Well for a Bigger Refinery. Quote from the article:
"Shares in NZ Refining have rocketed from 20 cents a year ago to 46c last week . . ."[:0]
Or has there been a 100 for one restructuring that escaped my notice?

craic
11-07-2005, 10:06 AM
I put NZ Sunday Star Times in my Google tool bar and got this article.

NZRC in no rush to split shares

MONDAY , 11 JULY 2005

By PAUL GORMAN
The country's most expensive shares are still odds-on favourite for a share split but the New Zealand Refining Company is not rushing a decision.

NZRC shares are trading on the New Zealand Exchange at about $46.50 each, having rocketed 45 per cent from the $32 mark that some "mum and dad" shareholders already believed was too high.

They criticised the share structure at the annual meeting at the end of April.

One vocal investor at the meeting, Bryan Burnside, has taken advantage of the boom since then to sell.

But he says he cannot believe how much higher the share price has risen since he sold.

NZRC chairman Ian Farrant told BusinessDay late last week that the board had yet to look into a share split. "At some point I'm pretty sure we'll address the issue."

At the April meeting, Mr Farrant said he was sceptical a split would make the share issue more liquid, saying NZRC tended to be illiquid anyway.

Any division would have to be at four or even five new shares to one, he said then.

Now, with the share price above $45, the ratio for a split may need to be as high as eight-to-one.

Mr Burnside said he decided about a month ago to sell the 1500 NZRC shares he had held for five years because he thought the price was unlikely to go any higher.

"I sold them at $41 (each). I thought it was a bloody silly price (for anyone) to pay for them and I'll get out.

"However, since then it's gone to $44. I thought I'd done well."

Mr Burnside was still of the view that NZRC had to split the shares, as the present price was out of the reach of most small investors.

Other "expensive" NZX shares at the end of last week include Caledonia Investment, at $38.50 each, ANZ Banking Group, at $23.20 each, and Westpac (NZ) Investments, at $21.80 each.

craic
11-07-2005, 10:08 AM
Up another 50 cps this morning. Going to Cairns next monday for a couple of weeks and hope to find it at 5000 cps on my return - to pay for the trip, that is.

whatsup
11-07-2005, 01:07 PM
I seem to remember that NZR split 3/1 or something during the late 80's , this certainly been a great share but really a proxy to the oil price ,

Steve
11-07-2005, 01:08 PM
Re: the SST article posted earlier, it is obvious that Mr Burnside failed to do his homework...


quote:Mr Burnside said he decided about a month ago to sell the 1500 NZRC shares he had held for five years because he thought the price was unlikely to go any higher.

"I sold them at $41 (each). I thought it was a bloody silly price (for anyone) to pay for them and I'll get out.

"However, since then it's gone to $44. I thought I'd done well."

Disc: Very long-term holder who is up well over 100%:D:D:D

craic
03-08-2005, 10:07 AM
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Up another 50 cps this morning. Going to Cairns next monday for a couple of weeks and hope to find it at 5000 cps on my return - to pay for the trip, that is.

Well! got back on friday night from the land of the Kangaroo sausage and here we are at 5,000 cps with buyers at 4,950. With a dividend due next month there must be some insider info pushing it up 200 cps from yesterday. Any guesses asa to the amount. I believe that it must be over the $2 to cause that sort of a jump.

craic
03-08-2005, 10:09 AM
quote:Originally posted by craic

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

(Up another 50 cps this morning. Going to Cairns next monday for a couple of weeks and hope to find it at 5000 cps on my return - to pay for the trip, that is.)

Well! got back on friday night from the land of the Kangaroo sausage and here we are at 5,000 cps with buyers at 4,950. With a dividend due next month there must be some insider info pushing it up 200 cps from yesterday. Any guesses asa to the amount. I believe that it
must be over the $2 to cause that sort of a jump.


Paid $18 at AIA for three stubbies? That must be the dearest beer in NZ - but never mind as long as it contributes to the AIA returns.

Placebo
03-08-2005, 10:21 AM
Never mind Craic, that Special Divvy cheque is in the mail :D

I thought you had sold out of NZR?

scamper
03-08-2005, 10:29 AM
am beginning to feel considerable empathy with mr Burnside's view that the price is unlikely to go any higher! with profits over 260%, am approaching the point that i managed to ignore at my previous target of $35, ptl.

craic, with a price of $50, a div of $2 would seem pretty unexciting and, given that it has been over $40 for 6 weeks, what is the likelihood of the div being adjusted upward during that period? i haven't a clue how boards decide these things, but given nzr's history of very good divs, it may be that board will dish out 350 cps just to keep everyone happy....

oh, what a loverly thought from behind scamper's rose-tinted specs...

craic
03-08-2005, 11:50 AM
No P this is one I will not sell. The only "good" one I sold in recent times was Contact. I am not sure that the market price of the share has much effect on dividend which should be a percentage of profit. I am very aware that a sudden spike in share price or a sudden drop, just before a dividend announcement, usually means that the tea-lady or the accountants tea-lady caught a glimpse of the figures soon to be published and told the butcher or maybe the priest in the confessional or something like that. It could not be insider trading because that is illegal, of course. I would love to do a study on this phenomenon. It might be the path to riches untold.

craic
25-08-2005, 09:30 AM
10 for 1 split - that should interest the peasants. 100 cps interim div same as last year even though the profit has more than doubled? Talk of investment opportunities for the rest - who are they after? I hope they keep away from that bog-hole that is NOG. Price is up 320 cps as I write with no sellers near the mark.

scamper
25-08-2005, 11:14 AM
Scamper seems to have missed the plot...
Why would a share price rise ~8% on the announcement of a miserable div (bla) and share split (neutral?)?

ok, so the profit jumped/ soared/ leapt, and the report's tone was positive, but...

one of the constants about nzr is its liquidity -- or lack of it -- because of the large holding by oil companies. will a split really persuade them to put bunches on the market? or will the split just mean that the existing scampers and craics will sell portions of their holdings to other scampers and craics...

Halebop
25-08-2005, 11:30 AM
The relevance of share splits completely mystifies me.

At worst you could have an impact if the share price was above a minimum marketable parcel value. Not very many punters after all buy just $300 or $500 worth of shares. The first share purchase I ever made was in Australia, I had to muster A$1,000 as a kid and pay A$50 in brokerage (it made me want to be a broker!). If a young teenager could muster $1,000 over 20 years ago I just don't see how a $50 or even $500 share price makes any difference.

craic
25-08-2005, 12:02 PM
Halebop, you ignore the psychology of greed and the effect that numbers have on people. People on this site regularly boast about their success, based on numbers, sometimes dollars and sometimes numbers of shares. If you spend a little time thinking about it, the numbers tell you little about their real success or lack of it. They can now buy 10 shares for their dollars instead of one and that is perceived bargain. I bought into AIA in April and May of this year simply because I knew there was a split to happen. The result is a gain of almost 10% since then. I relied on the perception of others.NZR will probably be 600cps by the next dividend in six months. Nice easy way to make a dollar

craic
26-08-2005, 09:15 AM
Wow!, Up another 300cps to 5600 cps. Not far to go to the 600 cps after the split. Just accep the fact that someone out there knows more than we do and go with the flow.

k1w1
26-08-2005, 09:41 AM
"Oh, you pretty things " dah dah dah ...

duncan macgregor
26-08-2005, 10:04 AM
I will give you a well done on this one KIWI. It goes against the grain but what the hell im big enough. Macdunk

craic
26-08-2005, 11:11 AM
And now we have 5900 cps on firly large volume for this one. Could it be that my 6,000cps will come six months early?

Steve
26-08-2005, 11:20 AM
As a long-term shareholder, I must say "What a RIDE!" :D:D:D

Yossarian
26-08-2005, 04:53 PM
quote:Originally posted by craic

I relied on the perception of others.

Or perhaps we're all relying on the perceptions of each other... in that share traders in NZ all know that prices tend to go up in NZ when splits happen... so they all buy in ... and the share price rises accordingly...

heavy man.

craic
26-08-2005, 05:38 PM
Welcome, Yossarian. Have you got a few of these?

craic
08-09-2005, 04:45 PM
This might give you some info on this goldmine.

craic
15-09-2005, 06:25 PM
6415 cps tonight - and I thought that 6000cps would take another 6 months. What this tells me is that there is something happening that I don't know about.

Chris
16-09-2005, 11:42 AM
quote:Originally posted by craic

6415 cps tonight - and I thought that 6000cps would take another 6 months. What this tells me is that there is something happening that I don't know about.


At a guess I would say it is something to do with the expansion project that they are looking to do. If they can make the plant more productive at todays margins then it really is a license to print moola...

Expect to see some big paybacks for the expanded pipeline in the second half of the year too..

warthog
18-09-2005, 09:31 AM
quote:Originally posted by Halebop

The relevance of share splits completely mystifies me.

At worst you could have an impact if the share price was above a minimum marketable parcel value. Not very many punters after all buy just $300 or $500 worth of shares. The first share purchase I ever made was in Australia, I had to muster A$1,000 as a kid and pay A$50 in brokerage (it made me want to be a broker!). If a young teenager could muster $1,000 over 20 years ago I just don't see how a $50 or even $500 share price makes any difference.


Liquidity and market psychology. Look at GPG - the SP appears stagnant, but things are often not as they appear.

Disc: no NZR - unfortunately :(

truedragon
16-10-2005, 09:11 PM
Are people taking profit now with oil price pulling back? Or is this just a pull back for another bull run? It's amazing looking at NZR graph and the uptrend is indeed very much there, but then I gotta ask what is the PE ratio of this co. Anybody know about the PE now and for 06 and project earning?

I have read everywhere that refinery is actually the bottle nect and NOT the crude supply. The other refinery play I can see in Oz and NZ is CTX (Caltex). Anybody know any other one that has a refinery play?

DISC: NO NZR but is looking to buy into the refinery play.

craic
17-10-2005, 09:52 AM
NZR.NZX - The New Zealand Refining Company Limited Ordinary Shares


Total Issue: 240,000,000
Market Capitalisation: $1,488,000,000 (@620)
Full Year Profit: NZD 125,065,000
Forcast Profit: NZD $0
Earnings/Share: 52.11
Price/Earnings Ratio: 11.89791
NTA/Share: 163.14
Dividend/Share: NZD 0.3
Dividend Yield: 4.84%
1-Week Range (Low-High): 587 - 630
4-Week Range: 587 - 6600
26-Week Range: 587 - 6600
52-Week Range: 587 - 6600


Issuer Details
Registered Name: The New Zealand Refining Company Limited
Short Name: NZREFIN
Issuer Code: NZR
End of Financial Year: 12-31
First Listed Date: 01/09/1962
Registered Address: Marsden Point Road
Ruakaka
Whangarei

truedragon
17-10-2005, 10:54 PM
P/E of just 11 [:p]
Nice:D

lambton
18-10-2005, 08:15 AM
quote:Originally posted by truedragon

P/E of just 11 [:p]
Nice:D


And growing its earnings. :D

truedragon
26-10-2005, 01:35 PM
The price is going down to low 5?! What has changed, anybody know anything?

DISC: Hold

lambton
26-10-2005, 01:38 PM
quote:Originally posted by truedragon

The price is going down to low 5?! What has changed, anybody know anything?

DISC: Hold


Makes you wonder - perhaps its the fundies getting scared and selling all and sundry.

truedragon
26-10-2005, 01:43 PM
I acquire some CTX.AX also, and I has quite a strong 2 days where NZR seem to go the other way and there is liternally no buyer.

Probably just wait and see.

B.R
Mike

FYA4999
27-10-2005, 10:14 AM
Must be the sheep mentality. Selling off cos everyone else is. Maybe a hurricane is going to hit the refinery or people will stop using their cars and walk.

lambton
27-10-2005, 12:47 PM
quote:Originally posted by FYA4999

Must be the sheep mentality. Selling off cos everyone else is. Maybe a hurricane is going to hit the refinery or people will stop using their cars and walk.


yep its probably a buy but don't have the b#lls to go any deeper at this point until a little bit of buy side comes into play.

FYA4999
27-10-2005, 04:18 PM
I reckon the NZR SP will rebound shortly. The sheep that are selling out will all of a sudden realise that there was no reason to sell and climb back on board. By that time, they'll probably pay for their shares at a higher price.

This company has given great returns over the years and should really be a long-term hold:

Total Shareholder Return
(avg annual rate)

1yr 3yr 5yr 10yr
121.6% 58.3% 50.9% 18.0%

This info comes from the ASB Securities website.

k1w1
28-10-2005, 02:29 PM
good news today from NZR. Profit forecast to increase by 40%. Study to commence on increasing crude oil refining capacity by 20% which on their margins would be very worthwhile exercise.

moe
28-10-2005, 02:43 PM
Yep up almost 5% today, all those folk who have dumped out of their shares over the last two weeks are probably getting back into it now.

craic
29-10-2005, 07:08 AM
If you can find a better performing security or a better forecast/outlook on the NZ market - Please tell me about it.



NZR
28/10/2005
FORECAST

REL: 1247 HRS The New Zealand Refining Company Limited

FORECAST: NZR: NZRC FY Fcast up 40% and $25m to develop capacity project

Refining Company plans to invest in future growth

The New Zealand Refining Company (NZRC) today announced it would develop a
proposal to invest in additional refining capacity at Marsden Point. The
proposal will provide the NZRC Board with sufficient detail to make a final
investment decision by the end of 2006 whether to proceed or not. The
development cost will be approximately $NZ25 million. If approved, the
expansion project is expected to cost about $500 million spread over three
years, with commissioning possible in 2009.

Chairman of NZRC, Ian Farrant, said the NZRC Board had agreed to develop a
proposal which would increase NZRC's crude oil intake by approximately 20 per
cent. Mr Farrant said the proposed upgrade would reduce NZRC's dependence on
imported residue for hydrocracking and blend stocks for the production of
petrol.

The NZRC Board also announced today that it expects a strong financial result
for 2005.

Chief Executive of NZRC, Thomas Zengerly, said the continued strong financial
performance of the NZRC had given the Board the confidence to develop the
proposal further.

"Profit forecasts are difficult to make in a market environment which can
change so rapidly as a result of external global events, as we have seen
through the impact of recent hurricanes in the United States on refining
margins and tanker freight rates.

"However, on the basis of currently available data and our expectations for
the rest of the year, I expect the company's full year Operating Surplus
After Tax for 2005 to exceed last year's result of $97.5 million by around 40
per cent."

Zengerly said the proposed expansion would ensure that NZRC was able to keep
up with New Zealand's growing demand for quality fuels.

"NZRC has passed an important milestone today. I am encouraged by the
confidence the Board of Directors has in this company to develop such a
significant growth project."

Key aspects of the project scope are to increase crude distillation capacity
by modifying an existing crude distillation unit, and constructing new
process units to increase refinery output, in particular the production of
petrol.

"We will work hard to develop the proposal in sufficient detail to provide
the Board with the information needed for a final investment decision by the
end of 2006," said Zengerly.
End CA:00122747 For:NZR Type:FORECAST Time:2005-10-28:12:47:54

Snow Leopard
29-10-2005, 01:23 PM
Upbeat little article on the Stuff (http://www.stuff.co.nz/stuff/0,2106,3459927a13,00.html) website with regard to yesterdays announcement.
I must admit that I bought at $5.15 & $5.25 yesterday as I was fortunate enough to spot the announcement soon after it came out.
I have been watching the price decline of late waiting for an opportunity to buy and hope that this was it.

With a projected profit of say $135m then the forward P/E for this year is currently 9.7 :)

rmbbrave
29-10-2005, 06:30 PM
Links can go bad here is the article...

$500m refinery upgrade planned
29 October 2005
By ADRIAN BATHGATE

The Marsden Point oil refinery is considering a $500 million upgrading that would create hundreds of jobs in Northland.


New Zealand Refining, which owns Marsden Point, near Whangarei, said yesterday that it was spending $25 million on a study to decide whether a full upgrading would go ahead. A decision is expected by the end of 2006.

An expanded refinery would add about 20 per cent to its capacity, taking the amount of New Zealand's petrol refined domestically to about 70 per cent.

NZ Refining chief executive Thomas Zengerly said it would also be able to make more of the components that needed to be added to crude oil to turn it into petrol.

"It will improve the independence of New Zealand as a country from imports."

Dr Zengerly said it was hard to say exactly what the economic benefits would be to Whangarei, but hundreds of jobs would be created. "That's all part of the detailed design and will come much later. But it would be excellent news for the region."

It was likely, however, that many of the new "units" needed to expand the refinery would be made overseas and shipped to Whangarei, because of a lack of expertise in New Zealand.

AdvertisementAdvertisementWork would begin in early 2007 and the expansion completed by mid-2009, he said.

The development would be one of the biggest in the refinery's 40 years, and the largest since the "Think Big" expansion of the early 1980s.

The refinery has completed a $180 million project to reduce the amount of pollutants in its fuels, to bring it into line with new regulations that take effect on January 1.

New Zealand Refining, with everyone else in the oil industry, is enjoying a golden run thanks to the insatiable demand of countries such as China for oil to drive economic growth.

Combined with a worldwide shortage of refining capacity, exacerbated by hurricanes in the gulf of Mexico, the margin the New Zealand refinery makes on each barrel of oil has more than doubled in the past two years to over $US8 ($NZ5.60).

New Zealand Refining also said yesterday that it expected net profit for the year to increase by 40 per cent to about $140 million.

New Zealand's four big oil companies together own about 72 per cent of NZ Refining. The parent companies of two of these, Mobil and Shell, yesterday announced a combined profit of US$17 billion for the three months ended September.

winner69
29-10-2005, 07:14 PM
Share split to improve liquidity?

Average volume from Jan to time of split 4,079 per day

Average volume since split 42,379

Would have thought they would have expected more than a 4% increase when the shares became so cheap .... seeing all the 'sheep' have sold out and are now starting to buy back in

Snow Leopard
31-10-2005, 04:16 PM
Well a coupla hundred thousand moved around today, including those I bought friday :).

truedragon
14-11-2005, 03:24 PM
NZR SP has been under pressure, well under 5 now.... This compare to CTX seems strange, even though oil price has pull back a little, but maybe something is up. Anybody in the konw can share.... or do you see this as a temporary pull back due to lower oil price and expansion concern and time to accumulate.

DISC: Hold NZR

lambton
14-11-2005, 03:28 PM
I'm hurting, but holding.

Sharp737
14-11-2005, 06:11 PM
Margins are down for this month...quite a bit apparently. Might account for a drop in SP. However, they are up and down so it might just be a glitch at the moment

Sharp "All things are possible"

k1w1
15-11-2005, 02:35 PM
What is your source ?

k1w1
17-11-2005, 05:27 PM
Well that was a resounding and telling silence.

SP has pulled up from its recent dive and has hit a higher low, now all it needs is the higher high.

Snow Leopard
17-11-2005, 06:04 PM
quote:Originally posted by k1w1 [on the MFT thread]

I looking forward to reminding you of your comments on the NZR thread at a later date.


For your assistance, crude oil price has nothing to do with NZR profits, which correlate directly to the Singapore refiners margin and the $US/$NZ exchange rate. The higher they go, the larger the profits.

I am positioning on the basis that both of them will remain at present levels or above.

You cant find a source for me that gives a daily of the margin can you PT ?

Heh k1w1, all I said was, well read the post again...
You may know what affects the NZR margins, but the short term traders do not [care]. If you are happy to hold NZR then I have no gripe with that, you are as likely to be right as I am. I saw good news and bought and saw the market reaction the next day and sold out .
I may well have bought at yesterdays end of day prices had I not been in transit. Even with todays close I think it looks a reasonable bet, short term.

regards

Paper Tiger

Sharp737
17-11-2005, 07:28 PM
k1w1, sorry I havn't got back to you. Let's just say...I know the margins are down somewhat for this month...but that's not to say that next month will be back up again.
And no, I am not NZ Refining Company employee.

Sharp

k1w1
17-11-2005, 08:29 PM
No worries Sharp, I wonder if you could work out the margin by knowing the price of a barrel of their local crude and the price of a barrel of refined petrol and subtracting the former from the latter to work out the refining margin .

Is it a state secret or something that it is not readily published ?

Base Trader
18-11-2005, 12:38 AM
A refineries margins are relative to the ability of it to produce higher quantities of desired products (remember the cracking process produces bitumen, fuel oil, jet fuel, naptha, gasoline etc) from the relative qualities of available crude. The recent past has seen the US importing a large amount of gasoline and as a result the global prices for the higher temperature distillates has increased. Note with this point that gasoline alternatives going to the US market will no longer be available for other markets such as NZ. A further important consideration is the relative freight rates on crude vs refined products.

Also as the US has strict gasoline rules this means it can only import from advanced refineries or refineries that have used sweet crude (low sulphur) for the purpose of higher distillate output. As more gasoline is produced from high API crudes (such as WTI and Brent) these have sold at a premium. Lower API and Sour crudes has sold at a widening discount. Marsden Point is not a particularly modern facility and has not overly benefitted from this crude quality spread change but rather in the global increase in refining spreads.

The refining spreads have pulled back over Nov as the US driving season abates and this will be across the board. However, on the positive side there is a lack of refining volume globally and it takes 4 years for a non-US refiniery and 8 years for a US refinery on average to be built so in the shocks the refineries will cream it.

A final point is that all the major oil companies have a share of NZR so there is a general lack of competitive edge which may aid it over the longer term.

Lizard
18-11-2005, 06:57 AM
For anyone interested, this is the response I got from NZR when I queried what types of crude quality they could handle:

NZRC's refinery can process a variety of crude oil grades and other feedstock. The crude oil diet typically includes more than 50% of medium to heavy sour crude oil (mostly from the middle east). The refinery also consumes imported residue, (ie the portion of crude oil that remains after the petrol, jet fuel and diesel components have been distilled off in other refineries) and upgrades this very heavy material to petrol, jet fuel and diesel in the hydrocracker. The hydrocracker produces fuels with very lower levels of sulphur from heavy/sour residue. The Future Fuels project, to be started later this year, will enable the refinery to remove even more sulphur and will enable the refinery to meet the strict new product specifications (maximum of 50ppm sulphur in diesel) that will apply from 2006. This will ensure that the refinery maintains its ability to process a variety of feedstock, including sour crude oil, while meeting tight product specifications.

(received April 2005)

Sharp737
18-11-2005, 01:27 PM
Not to mention the big project on the table to increase through put. Design being done now and then to go before the Board.
Future Fuels Project is now up and running and all running well.
Wish I had of got into these shares a few years ago...

Sharp "All things are possible"

k1w1
24-02-2006, 06:11 PM
I think this is a very decent result. Having signalled they would only increase profits by 30% NZR have instead increased them by 40%. A fully imputed yearly divy of 32 cents is not to sneered at either. Share closed at $6.10. This is a company which will benefit from a falling NZ dollar provided that the gap between refining capacity and demand continues in the Asian region.

JAMP
15-03-2006, 07:37 PM
I have jumped back on the wagon today. So long as the exchange rate hangs under US$0.65 I am confident that NZR will deliver a strong result over the coming twelve months. I did contemplate a cheaper entry-point next week once they go xd, but there is no harm in banking a dividend every now and again is there?

With the benefit of hindsight my stomach churns when I reflect that I sold my original NZR holding less than nine months back (for a healthy profit mind).

Regards JAMP
NZX: AIA LPL MCH MVN NZO NZOOD NZR PPG RBD SAN SKL SPN
NZAX: CVT NWFOA SAT
Unlisted: BRK

Snow Leopard
16-03-2006, 05:45 AM
NZR goes into the NZX50, 50P & Mid Cap on Monday April 3th or if before then CAH gets to the compulsory acquisition stage.

rmbbrave
16-03-2006, 12:13 PM
quote:Originally posted by craic

Going up again this morning in spite of all the rubbish posted here. All you have to remember is that NZR is an effective monopoly (2) It is owned more than 70% by its primary customers, the three or four big oil companies, Shell BP etc.,(3) Any extra costs can be immediately applied at the pump and customers must pay or walk (4) If they put the price up a tad too soon or keep it up a tad too long, well, its just a little more profit. All the philosophical arguments about world events, supplies, alternatives and the like are of no consequence to you and me as we will have plenty of time to take cover in the event of disaster but right now just sit back and watch those dollars and cents rolling in.


It appears NZR is a tightly held stock.

When a new company enters the NZX some of the big funds "have to" buy it so I reckon the SP will rise. Therefore I am going to buy $29,500 worth while it still costs $30 at ASB Securities.

JAMP
16-03-2006, 06:56 PM
rmbbrave, you had me thinking you were in cuckoo land quoting $30 for NZR. Then I realised you were talking brokerage.

I was most pleasantly surprised to discover today that NZR are about to enter the NZX indices. With a ranking around 40 on the NZX50 they should be there a while too.

On the back of this further good news I am picking a NZR shareprice in excess of $7 before mid-year.

Regards JAMP
NZX: AIA LPL MCH MVN NZO NZOOD NZR PPG RBD SAN SKL SPN
NZAX: CVT NWFOA SAT
Unlisted: BRK

k1w1
24-03-2006, 03:13 PM
Go you good thing go .

rmbbrave
24-03-2006, 03:23 PM
I bought 4500 @ 6.49 a week ago now they are up to 7.40. $4000 profit!

"A tightly held stock.

When a new company enters the NZX some of the big funds "have to" buy it"

JAMP
24-03-2006, 07:54 PM
Since going xd earlier this week, there has been some bizarre downward price activity. I suspect that a few stop-loss triggers may have been taken out (perhaps as a result of not being adjusted for the dividend?).

The price action today flew in the face of the previous two days and must have occurred quite late in the day. Unfortunately I was quaffing a beverage with my work colleagues at the time, so I missed the opportunity to watch the fun and games.

Somehow I don't think the resignation of CEO Dr Thomas Zengerly would have fired the market up like this, so I will go with rmbbrave's theory. Fund managers buying into a tightly held stock.

So what does next week bring? Tempting to load a $7 stop-loss as I suspect a few sellers will be flushed out at this price. But if there are more fund managers buying in, it could just as easily challenge $8. I think I'll sit on my hands.

Regards JAMP
NZX: AIA LPL MCH MVN NZO NZOOD NZR PPG RBD SAN SKL SPN
NZAX: CVT NWFOA SAT
Unlisted: BRK

k1w1
25-03-2006, 10:20 AM
Is this a one off blip due to being included in the index or is the SP here to stay ?

craic
28-03-2006, 02:56 PM
NZR
28/03/2006
GENERAL

REL: 1535 HRS The New Zealand Refining Company Limited

GENERAL: NZR: Strong Margins Continue at NZRC

Throughput for the two month period ending 28 February 2006 was in line with
plan at 6.529 million barrels.
Refinery Indicator Margins have dropped from those experienced in 2005.
However a shortage of clean fuels in the Asia-Pacific region has allowed NZRC
to benefit from the higher premiums being paid in Singapore. The company
generated a margin of USD6.26 per barrel and earned processing fees of
$42.021 million for the two month period.
The average USD/NZD exchange rate for the period was .6803
End CA:00129341 For:NZR Type:GENERAL Time:2006-03-28:15:35:11

russholmes
04-04-2006, 02:02 PM
So Direct Broking show the PE as 3.6

http://www.directbroking.co.nz/directtrade/dynamic/quote.aspx?view=basic&qqsc=nzr&qqe=NZSE

ASB show it as 12.9

Who's right? I guess there's some maths to do after the share split?

Yossarian
04-04-2006, 02:11 PM
no idea who's right but the share split doesn't affect anything. Market cap remains the same.

shasta
04-04-2006, 05:47 PM
Russ,

The NZX site shows the P/E as 3.6164 based on todays closing SP of $6.75.

ASB would not have updated their info, i use ASB Securities & often find this problem as well.

Looks cheap to me all the same & is on my watchlist

Deev8
04-04-2006, 07:18 PM
ASB Securities are for some reason showing current financials as year ending Dec 2004, with 2005 as a forecast. However the 'forecast' 2005 earnings of 52.8 cps is correct, giving a P/E of 12.9 at Monday's close of $6.79.

The NZX website is also showing a P/E of 3.6 based on earnings of $1.8665 - where did that come from?

NZ Refining is also on my watchlist.

Deev8
04-04-2006, 07:20 PM
ASB Securities are for some reason showing current financials as year ending Dec 2004, with 2005 as a forecast. However the 'forecast' 2005 earnings of 52.8 cps is correct, giving a P/E of 12.9 at Monday's close of $6.79.

The NZX website is also showing a P/E of 3.6 based on earnings of $1.8665 - where did that come from?

NZ Refining is also on my watchlist.

Deev8
04-04-2006, 07:29 PM
Hmm - I seem to be repeating myself!

craic
05-04-2006, 09:24 AM
Don't watch it - buy it. I did and its keeping me in the style to which I am not accustomed.

shasta
05-04-2006, 12:49 PM
At around $6 i would, til then i have even better options on my watchlist!

Binklebonk
05-04-2006, 01:26 PM
DV8 you may have also transposed a number.The CPS for 2005 was 58.2 giving a PE of 11.6 at $6.79

Deev8
06-04-2006, 02:20 PM
quote:Originally posted by Binklebonk

DV8 you may have also transposed a number.The CPS for 2005 was 58.2 giving a PE of 11.6 at $6.79


Well-spotted, but no it wasn't me who transposed the digits. ASB Securities do show earnings of 52.8c per share, and today that means they are giving the P/E as 12.8 based on yesterday's close at $6.74. As you say the correct earnings figure, given in NZR's earnings announcement, is 58.2c (I hadn't spotted the transposition) so the P/E should be 11.6.

Deev8
07-04-2006, 05:11 PM
quote:Originally posted by KW

Its in the definition of P/E - some brokers use past earnings only, ASB uses past and projected earnings. Although not consistently.

From ASB web site:
"Price/Earnings (P/E) Ratio
The current price divided by the average of the last actual earnings per share figure and the projected EPS figure for the next year. The two figures are weighted based on the elapsed time between each period. We use both forecast and historical EPS to give a more balanced P/E ratio than using either one alone. If no consensus forecasts are available then the EPS figure is taken from the last financial year."

Yes - but the really strange thing is that ASB Securities choose to show earnings for 2005, which was reported some time ago, as "forecasted". They are showing current financials as year ending Dec 2004.

Deev8
09-04-2006, 10:59 AM
Ian Farrant, the company Chairman, sold half of his shares (sold 50,000 shares) for the sum of $340,640. The on-market sale occurred on 29th and 30th March.

http://www.nzx.com/market/market_announcements/by_company?id=129549

gamerice
21-04-2006, 11:41 AM
What's up with the languishing sp of recent?
World crude oil price has increased approx. 20% in the past month... and is approaching $75 USD / Barrel fast...

and all NZR is doing is going down south!?
what's going on?

craic
19-05-2006, 06:17 PM
A nice move to the north by 20cps today. I wonder if it will get to $10 before Xmas?
ZR
19/05/2006
MONTHLY

REL: 1538 HRS The New Zealand Refining Company Limited

MONTHLY: NZR: High Margins Continue at NZRC

Throughput for the March/April (two month) period was 6.5 million barrels
which is in line plan and slightly above the same period for last year.

The company achieved an average margin of USD10.74 per barrel and earned
processing fees of $77,848,000 for the two month period.
End CA:00131554 For:NZR Type:MONTHLY Time:2006-05-19:15:38:18

http://www.directbroking.co.nz

Happy Camper
19-05-2006, 07:10 PM
$8 maybe, but surely not $10 Craic!

A margin above USD10 per barrel sounds pretty darned healthy to me mind! If they can maintain that for a significant period of time then a shareprice of $10 may be just around the corner.

Cheers

Captain Ramjet
09-08-2006, 07:12 PM
still practicing my technical analysis skills....seems to me this has gone through a previous resistance point of about 6.80 with a fair amount of gusto but not on particuarly strong volume. Do you think that this is signalling a break out of the trading range of 6.50 - 6.80 and will form another steep trendline similar to earlier this year (Feb to April)

Feedback from all and sundrie welcome....educate me :D

Happy Camper
10-08-2006, 06:06 AM
I think that it is more likely someone taking a position ahead of the half-year result that is due out within the fortnight - give or take a day or two.

If the news is good, they will be laughing all the way to the bank having bought into NZR in the low $7's.

With all the volatility of late, there is no reason why NZR haven't maintained strong margins which will flow through to strong cashflows which will be of immense help after the increased capex of last year.

Cheers

scamper
10-08-2006, 10:55 AM
Hello Captain Ramjet,
Your TA skills seem fine, but don't forget that some indicators work better than others depending on the stock. nzr, for example, is strongly influenced by global news -- wars, oil strikes, labour disputes etc -- and while the market can see many of these coming, the price can bounce around on very low volume.

Also, i guess you know that the four major oil companies own most of the shares, so that any strategic buying or selling by any one of them can wobble the price -- but i don't think they do that very often -- they just sit, hold and smile...

this reuters site is very useful and one of the few free sites that includes 'On Balance Volume'. The TA guru Phaedrus recommends this indicator strongly, and gets good results from it.
http://investing.reuters.co.uk/Stocks/ChartsUK.aspx?symbol=nzr.NZ&fs=1
Cheers scamper

Captain Ramjet
10-08-2006, 05:51 PM
thanks guys, appreciate your feedback. Scamper (or anyone else) are you able to give me an explanation of exactly what on balance volume is. I can see from the chart that the trend line generally and losely seems to follow the shape of the stock price but I dont understand the significance.

Thanks

Ramjet

scamper
11-08-2006, 10:48 AM
Hi Capt,
"On Balance Volume attempts to measure the level of accumulation or distribution by comparing volume to price movements. Volume is added to the indicator if closing price moves up and subtracted if closing price moves down. No adjustment is made if closing price is unchanged.

"On Balance Volume should be used in conjunction with other indicators.

"Ranging market
During a ranging market watch for a rising or falling On Balance Volume:
Rising OBV warns of an upward breakout.
Falling OBV warns of a downward breakout.

"Trending Market
A rising On Balance Volume confirms an up-trend and a falling OBV confirms a down-trend.

"Bullish divergence between OBV and price warns of market bottoms.
Bearish divergence between OBV and price warns of market tops."

All this good stuff comes from:
http://www.incrediblecharts.com/technical/on_balance_volume.htm

The incrediblecharts site has the best -- most clear and succinct -- explanations for TA that i've found online. sadly, you can no longer use the site for nz shares, but i always go there for info.
Cheers scamper

Captain Ramjet
11-08-2006, 05:30 PM
great explanation and site. Cheers scamper.

Ramjet

gamerice
14-08-2006, 02:59 PM
What do you guys think? Seems to be on a little rally as of late.
Is this related to the upcoming half year report? I remember someone mentioning the half year report is due out within the next two weeks. Got a link for that announcement?

Captain Ramjet
15-08-2006, 06:08 PM
well the half year ends on 30th June according to their website so I guess it makes sense that the report should be out very shortly.

After paper trading for a while with TA Im gonna put some money where my brain is and see what happens. My reasons for this are:

1) Around the 14 July the share price rose above the 20 day moving average on relatively strong volume

2) The 50 day moving average line was crossed soon after

3) A pattern of higher highs and higher lows seems to have developed

4) The resistance level of 6.80 has been well and truly broken

I plan to exit when the 20 day moving average drops below the share price trend line. I guess I should have some kind of stop loss but Im still new to this game and havent quite got that figured out yet.

Anyway comments from any TA traders are welcome as this is the first TA trade Ive done and all my knowledge is only from books and paper trading so far.

Cheers

Ramjet

Captain Ramjet
17-08-2006, 08:14 PM
Well I got in at 7.40 and we'll see where it goes from here. Good article from Stuff that says the cash keeps flowing


NZ Refining's margins so high it may give money back
17 August 2006

By SIMON LOUISSON


NZ Refining says its margins have been so high in four of the first six months of this year it may have to return money to its customers, who happen to be the world's major oil companies.

NZR today reported it received an average margin of $US9.60 ($NZ15.14) per barrel of oil processed in the May-June period.

It made a record margin of $US10.79 for the previous two months against $US6.21 in January-February.

The May-June margin compared with $US8.78 received in the year ago period and was almost three times the $US3.27 margin of two years ago.

NZR's main customers, who are also NZR's major shareholders, have an agreement that NZR's margins must be capped at $US9.00 a barrel over the year.

The cap is calculated at the final margin at the end of the year for each individual customer.

NZR is a turnpike operation collecting a margin fee for processing customers' crude oil into petrol, diesel and other refined products.

Its main shareholders include BP (23.6 per cent), Mobil, owned by Exxon Mobil, (19.2 per cent), Shell (17.1 per cent) and Caltex, half owned by Chevron, (12.7 per cent).

NZR reported processing fees of $68 million in May-June but that would have been $7.2m higher had the cap not been in place and that amount will be recouped if margins drop in the second half year.

Throughput for the May-June (two-month) period was 6.325 million barrels compared with 6.89m in the year ago period.

Throughput for the six-month period ending June 30 was 2.6 per cent below plan due to the timing of a maintenance shutdown of NZR's hydrocracker.

Chief executive Jerome Kerrigan said refining margins had begun to trend down in the July-August period.

"The crude prices have been dropping and the product prices have been dropping as well," he told NZPA.

While crude oil prices have shot up dramatically in the past three years, a shortage of refining capacity around the world has added to the soaring cost of petrol.

As well, a shortage of refining capacity for high quality (lower polluting) petrol had also contributed. Refiners, such as NZR, able to process oil to high standards could charge a premium.

Mr Kerrigan said the bubble for product quality was starting to disappear. Australia had taken time to get its clean fuel projects on line but it was now on stream.

NZR upgraded its Marsden Point refinery for lower sulphur diesel two years ago and lower benzine petrol last year.

"You still have high margins because of the tight refining situation.

"The total demand is still there overall. There is still a pinch on total refining capacity worldwide to the extent that in the US any announcement of any refinery upset tends to create ripples through the market.

"It's basically on a balance so any outage anywhere will start tipping on the side of pushing prices back up again."

NZR supplies three-quarters of New Zealand's petrol products. All NZ's petrol retailers bar the independent Gull are NZR shareholders.

NZR's shares more than quadrupled in value over the last three years to $7.35 today.

Placebo
18-08-2006, 12:09 PM
quote:Originally posted by Captain Ramjet

well the half year ends on 30th June according to their website so I guess it makes sense that the report should be out very shortly.

After paper trading for a while with TA Im gonna put some money where my brain is and see what happens. My reasons for this are:

1) Around the 14 July the share price rose above the 20 day moving average on relatively strong volume

2) The 50 day moving average line was crossed soon after

3) A pattern of higher highs and higher lows seems to have developed

4) The resistance level of 6.80 has been well and truly broken

I plan to exit when the 20 day moving average drops below the share price trend line. I guess I should have some kind of stop loss but Im still new to this game and havent quite got that figured out yet.

Anyway comments from any TA traders are welcome as this is the first TA trade Ive done and all my knowledge is only from books and paper trading so far.

Cheers

Ramjet


Ramjet, when our resident TA Guru phaedrus returns he will weep for joy at this post... :D

Captain Ramjet
18-08-2006, 08:50 PM
Ive read a couple of posts by Phaedreus but hadn't seen any from him for quite a while so assumed he must be off spending his fortune amassed by using his TA prowess.

If he wishes to add to my education then I more than welcome it although I hope he keeps the weeping to a minimum as, frankly, watching a grown man cry makes me somewhat uncomfortable :D

scamper
21-08-2006, 10:14 AM
following TA indicators with discipline cuts out tears. rules for getting in, rules for getting out -- no blood, sweat or tears.
problem is, some puppies have no discipline...

Happy Camper
29-08-2006, 09:33 PM
This Happy Camper is pondering setting a stop-loss for NZR. To my mind $7.50 seems a good number.

That was after-all the 52-week high for NZR until just a couple of days ago.

Probably the only thing holding me back is an awareness that the half-year announcement is due out any day now, and there could be some "nervous nellies" sweating on the result. I feel that by setting my stop-loss at just 2.09% below todays close puts me at risk of being ejected from the game prematurely.

Perhaps I should just wait and set my stop-loss in a few weeks time? $8.00 might seem like a good number then?

Any suggestions will be gratefully taken on board.

Cheers

Bilo
29-08-2006, 10:08 PM
This is a great investment share. Low PE good dividend yield. A stop loss at $7.50 (97% of the high) could well throw you out prematurely. The interim dividend should be between 10c and 20c if history is anything to go by.

I notice (ex Bloomberg today re Western Refining and Giant) that refineries are selling in the USA for between USD11k & USD19k per refined barrel. My quick calculations placed a value on NZR of about NZD2.5Bn at USD15K/b compared to market cap of NZD1.8Bn. Does this mean that despite the stella rise over the last few years the refinery is still undervalued?

At this level NZR refining margin should be heading further north - pity about the now publicly disclosed refining margin limit.

craic
30-08-2006, 07:06 AM
I've had these from 135 cps and I expect 1000cps in the not too distant future. The dividends have long since paid for the purchase and, regardless of where the oil comes from, it has to be refined. Don't worry about margins on the block - the pump controls the profit.

gamerice
30-08-2006, 08:17 AM
I am cautiously nervous, crude price on bloomberg dropped below 70 USD, that must not be a good sign, right?

IMHO the only reason for the recent surge is the imminent release of the Annual result.

hope i am wrong!!!

scamper
30-08-2006, 10:00 AM
Happy, I think a stop loss at 750 is too high. i know that the charts are almost impossible to read because of the 10 to 1 split, but i'm fairly sure that this share has ~5% downside wobbles within its glorious uptrend.

Like craic, i've had a stunning ride since 160 cps adjusted. i've sold little bundles now and then for some cash, and deeply regret it. apart from mft, selling off any other share would have been preferable, but i had early lapses in faith and didn't feel that nzr could go much higher.

now i expect it will go onwards and upwards until the final oil war.

did anyone see the Film Festival offering Oil Crash? spooky possums.

lambton
30-08-2006, 10:15 AM
quote:Originally posted by scamper

Happy, I think a stop loss at 750 is too high. i know that the charts are almost impossible to read because of the 10 to 1 split, but i'm fairly sure that this share has ~5% downside wobbles within its glorious uptrend.

Like craic, i've had a stunning ride since 160 cps adjusted. i've sold little bundles now and then for some cash, and deeply regret it. apart from mft, selling off any other share would have been preferable, but i had early lapses in faith and didn't feel that nzr could go much higher.


now i expect it will go onwards and upwards until the final oil war.

did anyone see the Film Festival offering Oil Crash? spooky possums.


I just love this share. Good divs and amazing capital gain with plenty of potential in the pipeline. He he

gamerice
30-08-2006, 10:55 AM
wow, look at the s/p rising, is the result announced today?

lambton
30-08-2006, 11:53 AM
quote:Originally posted by gamerice

wow, look at the s/p rising, is the result announced today?


31/8

craic
30-08-2006, 12:18 PM
800cps at this moment.My only fear is that Atilda The Nun will find a way to spoil the party.Our pump price is little more than half what they pay in the UK and its not exactly forcing cars off the road over there.We get the result tomorrow and guess what the inside traders think?

lambton
30-08-2006, 12:22 PM
40 cps div - yum yum

Happy Camper
30-08-2006, 09:12 PM
I think I'll hold fire on setting that stop-loss for a while yet. Too much volatility to be able to set one without fear of being ejected from the game.

Yesterday, I considered my proposed $7.50 stop-loss was too tight at 2.09% below closing share-price.
Today, I consider my proposed $7.50 stop-loss to be too loose at 7.40% below closing share-price.

Perhaps I will revisit once I am able to set an $8.00 stop-loss without fear of being ejected from the game too early.

Cheers

rmbbrave
30-08-2006, 09:17 PM
NZR my biggest holding.

I am happier than a happy camper!

gamerice
31-08-2006, 02:35 PM
I bailed out yesterday at $8.00.

i think it will trend down again to the 7.20 - 7.50 range, especially after the Record date, time to get in again. Long-term wise, this share will only go up, but cyclic fluctuation is expected.

grumpy
01-09-2006, 09:43 AM
Hi NZR'ers,
since we have been given a (sort of) outlook on the divident
development over the next few years,
what dividend yield do you think NZR investors
will find acceptable? 4% ? 5%??
That would give us an indication about the shareprice

Interested in your views
Grumpy

craic
01-09-2006, 10:07 AM
Having owned these for a number of years, I have no doubt that the dividend is of limited importance to the majority of shareholders who are, after all, the major oil companies.They allow about 25% of the shares to rest in the public arena. Their dividend comes straight from your pocket through the pumps.

grumpy
01-09-2006, 10:45 AM
I agree craig,
but those major shareholders are also not in the market
to buy or sell shares - so they do not determine the
shareprice. OTOH, the oil companies might have an
interest in the 'processing fee cap' which could
limit earnings for NZR.
What are your thoughs on that?
Grumpy

craic
01-09-2006, 12:00 PM
If you look at the board you will see that the four oil companies are in complete control.

Happy Camper
02-09-2006, 04:00 PM
This Happy Camper wishes that he had set his stop-loss at $8.00 now. To think that both of my theoretical stop-losses would have been taken out on Thursday.

I am still happy to be holding NZR.

To my mind the fact that the gross dividend represents only about 42% of NPAT suggests that the capital expenditure that has yet to be signed off early next year is all but a foregone conclusion.

And for a long-term holder, that isn't a bad thing at all.

Cheers

gamerice
02-09-2006, 07:38 PM
quote:Originally posted by Happy Camper

This Happy Camper wishes that he had set his stop-loss at $8.00 now. To think that both of my theoretical stop-losses would have been taken out on Thursday.




Hehe, welcome to the world of share-trading, u got greedy there.[:p]

Happy Camper
03-09-2006, 06:35 PM
Possibly I did gamerice. Possibly I did.

I was more intrigued that two theoretical stop-losses could be taken out on the same day. I can honestly say though that had my $8.00 stop-loss been in existence, I would already be back in this share.

I believe the sell-down was an over-reaction. The fact that the margins are easing suggests that the cap will not come into consideration. having said that the closer they can get to the cap without breaching it, the better.

Cheers

grumpy
04-09-2006, 09:25 AM
Hi,
what do you know about the cap? Does it get
renegotiated every year? Is it automatically
readjusted every year?? Or fixed in place???

It would seem im the current situation that
the cap puts also a cap on earnings...

Chris
04-09-2006, 11:13 AM
Hi Grumpy,
The Cap is part of the origonal processing fee agreement... it has 2 sides to it. The first side is something called the "Floor". This is the minimum amount of money that the customers will pay the refinery. The last time from memory that the floor was excercised was back in 1999 (I think) when margins were bad. The cap is the other dise of the coin, kind of a trade off to say that the oil coys will guarantee a fixed income but if prices go too crazy then they can be capped.

As far as I know, the floor is adjusted each year for inflation and increased capacity.
It appears that the cap however is not.

That aside, 36m bbl at $9usd bbl will still give you a revenue stream of roughly $360m NZD.... Then add the pipeline etc on top of that the revenue should be close to $400m..

This share has typically been a high yeilding dividend play share, I feel that now they are not paying out the 100% in dividends that they used to the money managers may re rate the stock a bit.

Cheers
Chris

Placebo
04-09-2006, 11:46 AM
It seems to me that having a ceiling set in dollar terms only is self-limiting. As the price per barrel rises, doesn't a $9USD margin per barrel become less in percentage terms?

Surely this ceiling on the margin must go!

Chris
04-09-2006, 12:46 PM
its all part of the processing agreement. The main purpose of the processing agreement is to keep the refinery fully utilised.

At the moment margins are good, and may be good for a couple of years yet, however, NZR has a minimal impact on the margins. The oil cos choose the feedstock etc and although we would like to think it, NZR dosnt affect the price of oil that much.

I think as shareholders, we were all thankfull when the floor was activated back in 1999 too... The major thing that NZR controls is its availability... thats was it does well... They cant turn off the plant when the margins turn negative, its simply not that easy.

Chris

Turtle
04-09-2006, 04:57 PM
Chris,
If the ceiling exists to ensure capcicty utilised, will the upgrade change this.
I think that NZRC has about 80 % of NZ demand?
Will the upgrade take this to around 95-100%?
Will this then mean that the price per litre will change as they attempt to secure the amount of volume needed to keep the plant running?
Cheers
T

Chris
04-09-2006, 06:29 PM
Hi Turtle.
I am not too sure if the $9 will change but the capacity factor that the "floor" is calculated on should change.

I think that the extra volume would have been requested by the customers in the first place.... one of the major reasons for doing the upgrade I believe is to secure a supply of feedstock which is becoming very scarce.... If sanctions go on Iran then I feel this will have a major impact of NZR's ability to perform...

Hopefully the investment decission has now been made and looking at the dividend policy, it appears that it has.

Chris

grumpy
04-09-2006, 08:03 PM
quote: Hi Grumpy,
The Cap is part of the origonal processing fee agreement... it has 2 sides to it. The first side is something called the "Floor". This is the minimum amount of money that the customers will pay the refinery. The last time from memory that the floor was excercised was back in 1999 (I think) when margins were bad. The cap is the other dise of the coin, kind of a trade off to say that the oil coys will guarantee a fixed income but if prices go too crazy then they can be capped.

As far as I know, the floor is adjusted each year for inflation and increased capacity.
It appears that the cap however is not.

That aside, 36m bbl at $9usd bbl will still give you a revenue stream of roughly $360m NZD.... Then add the pipeline etc on top of that the revenue should be close to $400m..

This share has typically been a high yeilding dividend play share, I feel that now they are not paying out the 100% in dividends that they used to the money managers may re rate the stock a bit.

Cheers
Chris
Thanks Chris,
that's what I'm worried about.

I have noted that management have warned that the current high
margins are not sustainable - perhaps they expect them to sink
below the cap anyway.
I also noticed that NZRC say that since they now produce cleaner fuels
they can demand higher margins for processing -- however the same
cap of US$9 per barrel applies?!?!? That does not seem right!

My take on the situation:
- Last year came close to margin capping -
the average margin in 05 was approximately US$8.25.
- The margin this year can not rise above US$9
- Volumes processed are static.
- $9 versus $8.25 is an increase of only 9%
- 70% of revenue of NZRC is from processing

Consequently there is only upside of about 6% (that is 70% of 9%)
for the whole financial year 06 versus 05.

That could be a serious disappointment to Mr Market
who got used to big yearly increases.

The situation is somewhat masked by the fact that this
latest half-year looks better than that because in the
comparison period in the first half of '05 the margins
were quite a bit lower than US$9. So the second half of the year
will make up (or should that be "down") for that because the
average over the whole year is what counts for triggering the cap.

And then there is the outlook for '07: Will the major maintenance
shutdown sheduled for February mean lower volumes processed as well?
For how long is the shutdown expected to last??

Grumpy

Bilo
04-09-2006, 10:05 PM
When I first bought into NZR (five years ago)the chairman was saying that high margins couldn't continue, but they got bigger - much bigger. I formed a view that as chairman he would be silly to say anything else. If he indicated that he was confident of high margins continuing then NZR would immediately be accused of excessive profiteering from their monopolistic position. When he was proven wrong his shareholders would be happy campers anyway - as has been the case.

Is this part of the reason Lord Brown of BP and other major oil companies keep insisting that oil will return to USD25 per barrel....drumming up a little (feigned) uncertainty protects their profit, as each 1US cent per barrel adds UK100M pounds to his bottom line.

Chris
05-09-2006, 08:49 AM
grumpy..
The shutdown will take away some of the thruput for sure... they usually happen every 3 years for a major one (presuming its the hydrocraker)... it also adds a fair whack onto the cost side too (only a few million though)..

You have a good point, the cap should have been increased for the LSD project but at the end of the day its a difficult one... I am pretty confident that if you take the last few years they oil coys have paid more in floor payments than they have held back in cap payments...

Most increases in capacity are pretty easy to justify if you are getting $9usd per bbl I have found!!

Chris

gamerice
11-09-2006, 03:27 PM
"Free fallin'~"

craic
11-09-2006, 06:25 PM
Gamerice, have a look at the depth/numbers.Tiny amounts of shares. Clearly none of the bigger players are concerned.

waikare
26-09-2006, 07:09 PM
What has been happening with the share price over the last few days, on Friday they closed at $6.75, Monday at $6.60 and today at $6.05.

Going ex dividend of 10cps can't be the full reason behind the 11% drop since Friday.............?

Sideshow Bob
26-09-2006, 08:06 PM
Oil under $60 UDD a barrel???

gamerice
26-09-2006, 08:33 PM
quote:Originally posted by gamerice

"Free fallin'~"


man, i really jinxed it...[}:)]

Placebo
27-09-2006, 09:42 AM
Gamerice you may have tanked the share price but you have done your country and the rest of the world a great service.

Buy more now.

waikare
07-10-2006, 08:00 AM
quote:Originally posted by Placebo

Gamerice you may have tanked the share price but you have done your country and the rest of the world a great service.

Buy more now.



Yes come Monday if the share price is still around the $6.10 mark I just might grab a few more.

There is nothing to suggest that the SP will keep going south.........or is there...........?

gamerice
07-10-2006, 12:30 PM
quote:Originally posted by waikare


quote:Originally posted by Placebo

Gamerice you may have tanked the share price but you have done your country and the rest of the world a great service.

Buy more now.



Yes come Monday if the share price is still around the $6.10 mark I just might grab a few more.

There is nothing to suggest that the SP will keep going south.........or is there...........?


wait till after the US election.

waikare
08-10-2006, 10:11 AM
quote:Originally posted by gamerice


quote:Originally posted by waikare


quote:Originally posted by Placebo

Gamerice you may have tanked the share price but you have done your country and the rest of the world a great service.

Buy more now.



Yes come Monday if the share price is still around the $6.10 mark I just might grab a few more.

There is nothing to suggest that the SP will keep going south.........or is there...........?


wait till after the US election.


Gamerice, are they before or after Winnie's birthday......................?

Deev8
24-11-2006, 02:44 PM
NZR have reported that the average profit from processing crude oil in the past two months fell 58% from a year earlier. The refining margin fell to US$4.06 a barrel in September and October, down from US$9.78 a year earlier and US$10.40 in July and August.

Processing fee revenue for the Year to date is $300.2 million, $34.5 million higher than that achieved for the same period in 2005. Predicted lower margins (USD4.00 to USD6.00) for November and December and a stronger New Zealand dollar should see full year processing fee income at similar levels to those of 2005.

NZX Announcement - NZRC Reports Lower Margins in September and October (http://www.nzx.com/market/market_announcements/by_company?id=140342)

NZ Herald - NZ Refining's margins take a big tumble (http://www.nzherald.co.nz/section/story.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=10412207)

waikare
12-01-2007, 08:48 AM
quote:Originally posted by KW

NZR actually makes more money when the price of oil is low, than when it is high. It collects the price for refined oil, so the lower its input costs are the better its profits. Its only if demand (price) for refined products falls that you should be worried. Although if the price of crude falls equally, NZRs net position is the same.


The cost of crude oil has droped over the last week, and with it also has NZR share price, as of last Friday (05/01) it was $6.75 and closed last night a $6.10. If KW's statment is correct, whay has the SP gone down...............

craic
12-01-2007, 09:42 AM
After making a lot of money on these shares since I bought in at equiv. 130 cps, I sold out recently while the price was high. I came to the conclusion that the share was becoming overworked and the margin for growth on its value could not match some other securities. I shifted into RAK MVN TEL and a couple of others. I am now quids ahead of where I would have been had I remained with NZR. The bottom lin - the share is overpriced.

Bilo
12-01-2007, 01:21 PM
quote:Originally posted by craic

After making a lot of money on these shares since I bought in at equiv. 130 cps, I sold out recently while the price was high. I came to the conclusion that the share was becoming overworked and the margin for growth on its value could not match some other securities. I shifted into RAK MVN TEL and a couple of others. I am now quids ahead of where I would have been had I remained with NZR. The bottom lin - the share is overpriced.

I agree with everything that you say here Craic, except for the last sentence. A PE of less than 10 with a recent confirmation of earnings expectations is indicative of not being currently valued in the market - NOT OVERPRICED. Bloated expectations of financial return for a near monopolistic supplier.

The uncertainty surrounding the increase in capacity and hence dividend policy is only down for director resolution first qtr 2007 so I guess some holders are following your analysis and putting money to work elsewhere.

Bilo
24-02-2007, 10:36 PM
I think I worked out what has gone wrong with this company. They haven't had the where-with-all to "can" the Point Forward project when it has never had a remote chance of financial success. Zengerly and Farrant would have seen that in 2 minutes.


It is hard to see how NZR will go ahead with the $500-$700M expansion of Whangarei to process just 20pc more oil. The numbers just don’t stack up, particularly with a ceiling on processing margins. The project should have been canned as soon as the NZD went up last year. They should have sent the contractors and engineering consultants home and increased the dividend payout. We are not here to provide jobs for boys.

The only reasons for going ahead are likely to be strategic – to ensure capacity for Australia and NZ if China and the rest of Asia cannot produce enough distillate products for everyone. If the project (as my rough calculations show) doesn’t have the faintest chance of a decent financial return it should have been canned immediately – not waiting for March. The project should have been an early casualty of the government policy to support high interest rates and the high exchange rate. Import substitutions as well as exports are being treated unfavourably. NZR should have pulled the plug long ago on Point Forward and paid out an extra dividend, perhaps made a capital return - just to really make a political point.

Steve
25-02-2007, 09:38 AM
Dropping it would give the shareprice a timely boost...

Steve
26-02-2007, 03:27 PM
Shouldn't the full-year profit announcement be made this week? They may provide an update with it

Bilo
26-02-2007, 03:42 PM
quote:Originally posted by Steve

Shouldn't the full-year profit announcement be made this week? They may provide an update with it

Announced in December: Preliminary results March 2 - this Friday.

Chris
28-02-2007, 09:00 PM
quote:Originally posted by Bilo

I think I worked out what has gone wrong with this company. They haven't had the where-with-all to "can" the Point Forward project when it has never had a remote chance of financial success. Zengerly and Farrant would have seen that in 2 minutes.


It is hard to see how NZR will go ahead with the $500-$700M expansion of Whangarei to process just 20pc more oil. The numbers just don’t stack up, particularly with a ceiling on processing margins. The project should have been canned as soon as the NZD went up last year. They should have sent the contractors and engineering consultants home and increased the dividend payout. We are not here to provide jobs for boys.

The only reasons for going ahead are likely to be strategic – to ensure capacity for Australia and NZ if China and the rest of Asia cannot produce enough distillate products for everyone. If the project (as my rough calculations show) doesn’t have the faintest chance of a decent financial return it should have been canned immediately – not waiting for March. The project should have been an early casualty of the government policy to support high interest rates and the high exchange rate. Import substitutions as well as exports are being treated unfavourably. NZR should have pulled the plug long ago on Point Forward and paid out an extra dividend, perhaps made a capital return - just to really make a political point.




From what I understand the project is to do with a little more than just money.... A plant is being built in Oman that is making feedstock very hard to come by for NZR so one of the options is to make its own... NZR may struggle (especially the users who have american links) if the new project dosnt go ahead.

Bilo
28-02-2007, 09:57 PM
All major plant projects are about money. The current plant turns the dregs of crude into products - the sows ear into a silk purse. This sounds like BS from people inventing excuses to protect engineering project jobs. They could turn the current plant (a nice little earner at current plant valuation) into a dog. The simple maths says that at expected refining rates and strong NZ$ there is no payback for many many years. They would be daft to add to refining capacity in NZ at these investment levels in these nervous financial times.

Deev8
02-03-2007, 09:14 AM
Strange - NZRC were scheduled to release their annual results today, but nothing so far.


quote:NZRC will release its preliminary announcement on 2nd March 2007 and issue its full year report for mailing to its Quoted Security Holders on 30th March 2007.

Steve
02-03-2007, 10:19 AM
quote:Originally posted by Deev8

Strange - NZRC were scheduled to release their annual results today, but nothing so far.


quote:NZRC will release its preliminary announcement on 2nd March 2007 and issue its full year report for mailing to its Quoted Security Holders on 30th March 2007.

Still a few hours left in the day...:)

Bilo
02-03-2007, 02:22 PM
Good news announcement. Final dividend up from 25cps last year to 35cps with imputation credits (52cps gross for the half). Is this a return to 60pc NPAT dividends? I think so. Expansion project watered down to essentials enabling increased high value distillates and reducing dependency on residue. Provides some work for a few engineers. $170M Capital cost won’t be a problem with the project over 2-3 years. It holds the promise of continuing the 60pc NPAT dividend policy. A fantastic performance in times when most import substitution businesses went to the wall eons ago.

Hopefully NZR will be in the market to refine NZ crude oils, soon to be bubbling up from all around the country.

Deev8
02-03-2007, 04:01 PM
quote:Originally posted by Steve


quote:Originally posted by Deev8

Strange - NZRC were scheduled to release their annual results today, but nothing so far.


quote:NZRC will release its preliminary announcement on 2nd March 2007 and issue its full year report for mailing to its Quoted Security Holders on 30th March 2007.

Still a few hours left in the day...:)Finally on the NZX website just after 2pm - a very leisurely approach.

NZRC 2006 Financial Result (http://www.nzx.com/market/market_announcements/by_company?id=144290)

Captain Ramjet
29-06-2007, 07:29 PM
this one seems to have been trending up quite nicely over the last month and a bit (short term) with the odd bit of good volume going through. Anyone know if there's any potential good news in the pipeline?

Placebo
29-06-2007, 07:59 PM
Always something `in the pipeline' at NZR ;)

Captain Ramjet
29-06-2007, 09:36 PM
ba dom dom pish

Happy Camper
30-06-2007, 08:21 AM
quote:Originally posted by Happy Camper 02/09/2006

This Happy Camper wishes that he had set his stop-loss at $8.00 now. This Happy Camper doesn't necessarily expect NZR to be north of $8.00 anytime soon, but to be in the zone again is a nice feeling.

I still haven't got around to setting a stop-loss for any of the stocks I hold, perhaps soon with NZR would be good timing?

Cheers

Captain Ramjet
03-07-2007, 07:20 PM
so its at $8.00 happy camper. Now what :-)

Happy Camper
03-07-2007, 07:49 PM
Yes well, in two minds really.

This Happy Camper is happy to take the money and run, but this Happy Camper is happy to hold also.

I can't help but think that there will be a few sellers pop out of the woodwork at current levels. I think I will sleep on it before firming up my course of action.

Cheers

Seiya
03-07-2007, 11:46 PM
I am glad i got in last week before the big jump. :D Was deciding at the time whether to buy TPW or NZR.

Placebo
04-07-2007, 04:05 PM
I am a holder and thinking of topping up. Is there a better share on the bourse at the moment. Climbing, solid, and pays a whopping divvy too.

Why would you sell?

waikare
04-07-2007, 07:35 PM
quote:Originally posted by Placebo

I am a holder and thinking of topping up. Is there a better share on the bourse at the moment. Climbing, solid, and pays a whopping divvy too.

Why would you sell?


Fell 20 cents or 2.5% to $7.80 today, sellers and buyers around this figure.

Placebo
05-07-2007, 09:43 AM
As long as the buyers are hungrier than the sellers, suits me fine:D

Seiya
08-08-2007, 09:03 PM
I like to top up more of NZR but it seems to drop quite a bit lately. It is nearly under $7.

Disc: hold NZR

manxman
08-08-2007, 11:14 PM
I like to top up more of NZR but it seems to drop quite a bit lately. It is nearly under $7.

A good pointer to NZR fortunes is http://www.aip.com.au/pricing/marketwatch.htm which gives Singapore prices for crude, petrol and diesel.

NZR is paid on essentially on the margins between product prices and cost of crude. Recently the margin on petrol has plummeted to around zero, That is, there is a glut of capacity on petrol and a shortage of diesel, but overall combined margins are dropping. Expect NZR to report lowered margins during the second half of '07 - their year ends 31 December.

That having been said, its still a fine company with no substantial debt. Expect a brilliant first half result and a caution that the second half won't be quite so good. Chairman Ian Farrant traditionally warns that NZR has no control over margins and that things can only get worse :(. If anyone takes any notice, there could be a drop in the share price, but the market has heard it all before and NZR keeps turning up trumps.:)

As a long term hold, it looks cheap. As a trading share, forget it - it lacks liquidity and does have its down moments. I bought in at around $1.80 ($18 before the 10:1 share split) and I think Craic has been in longer. Its been a great long term hold.:D

Mx