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arco
29-04-2004, 12:02 PM
http://www.reefcap.com/ubb/uploads/04.28.04.gif

arco
12-05-2004, 12:53 PM
Pip profit ticking along nicely on this one now,
and more to go IMO. Pink line is trailing stop.


http://www.reefcap.com/ubb/uploads/051204b.gif

arco
26-05-2004, 10:41 AM
http://forum.tacticaltrader.com/attachments/052404.gif

arco
08-06-2004, 10:04 AM
Follwing through as per plan.
June 8th could have significance

http://forum.tacticaltrader.com/attachments/06072004.gif

arco
15-06-2004, 03:21 PM
I like it when a plan comes together :)

http://www.reefcap.com/ubb/uploads/06142004.gif

arco
03-05-2005, 02:23 PM
Hi Xerof

You mentioned CAD on the Aus thread.

I have swing reversal levels of 2639 to 2695.
Looking like a possible shorting opportunity IMO.

Any thoughts - fundamental or otherwise ??

arco

Xerof
03-05-2005, 03:09 PM
Hi Arco,

I don't really follow the loonie bird - kiwi is difficult enough for me, but your levels, if expressed on a direct basis, 0.7912 to .7877 correspond with turn levels mentioned in the link I referred to on AUD thread.

I hadn't seen this thread before - you have had some success with the Loonie too Arco - well done, and it followed TA to perfection !


Hmmm, maybe just one more chocolate, Mr Creosote...


regards

Xerof

arco
03-05-2005, 03:20 PM
Perhaps a wafer thin mint then, if you insist :D

MP

Xerof
03-05-2005, 04:45 PM
Hehe Arco, see what happens if you overtrade:D:D

http://www.intriguing.com/mp/_pictures/life/vi-vomit.jpghttp://www.intriguing.com/mp/_pictures/life/vi-wafer.jpg
http://www.intriguing.com/mp/_pictures/life/vi-explo.jpg

Xerof

arco
03-05-2005, 09:57 PM
Now thats what I call a very sick joke [:p]

Xerof
03-05-2005, 10:39 PM
:D:D

Xerof
09-05-2005, 08:19 PM
Hello Arco,

see any potential butterflies here or is it crawling with caterpillars? Nice trendlines/no indicators!

http://www.stormyforex.com/showimg.aspx?imgid=15

I've stuck in a lazy bid for small at 1.2375 with razor tight stop below 1.2350 (having stated elsewhere that I don't trade the Loonie[:p][:p])

regards

Xerof

peat
09-05-2005, 08:47 PM
that link doesnt work properly
it links, but not to a picture.....

Xerof
09-05-2005, 08:52 PM
Peat, OK just go to http://www.stormyforex.com/index.aspx
and have a look at USD/CAD in his free daily analysis section

Also has a EUR/USD chart there, which is suggesting the same area as I did this morning as a sell - somewhere round 1.2880/1.2900

cheers

Xerof

peat
09-05-2005, 09:32 PM
looking very much like your bid will get filled....

stormy forex [8D]
they aint kiddin.

peat
09-05-2005, 09:42 PM
you're not alone zerof

Dallas GEP 10:34 GMT May 9, 2005
LONG CAD now at 1.2376

but my platform news suggests CAD momentum is strong
"The break of Friday's Usd/Cad low of 1.2387, and continued weakness under the 200 day m.a, imply a likely mid term shift to the downside. "

Xerof
09-05-2005, 09:46 PM
hammered at 75 - pay on - given - still pay - given - 75 offered - PAID... by a small player out of NZ

He he

we'll see what happens...will be showered in something - either glory or ****e


Xerof

arco
09-05-2005, 10:14 PM
Good Evening Xerof

The Loonie is actually still playing out a previous Bullish Gartley,
and there also appears to be a possible bearish Butterfly waiting
in the wings ;)

If I am correct the EW count seems to require a further move
north to complete a 5 wave - (and the final leg of the wing).

arco

Xerof
09-05-2005, 10:38 PM
Thanks Arco - hopefully I shall be there to assist with clipping its RHS winglet

Nice evening to all -over and out

Xerof

peat
10-05-2005, 09:40 AM
For you Xerof (from the global view forum).
NB Gold Coast Martin is a very highly respected poster/fund manager

gold coast martin 22:34 GMT May 9, 2005
Dallas GEP 22:31 GMT May 9, 2005
Yeap Dallas.....they should start in spurts to hit the market before ny starts today....hence my 12510-19 scenario for this week....g.t


Dallas GEP 22:31 GMT May 9, 2005
Martin, are those usd/cad LONG yard orders still there waiting execution as was your post yesterday

Xerof
10-05-2005, 11:03 AM
Thanks Peat, I occasionally have a look at GV, but find it littered with scalpers commentary. However, as you point out, there are one or two contributors who can add insight.

Clearly no buying spurt last night, so still await the imminent strong rally in USD/CAD:D:D


Xerof

peat
10-05-2005, 11:31 AM
lol@scalpers yeh
theres a guy there who has SL's of like 7 pips , calls himself a ninja trader.... tells us when he makes 3 pips.

arco
11-05-2005, 10:26 AM
quote: 9/5 If I am correct the EW count seems to require a further move north to complete a 5 wave - (and the final leg of the wing).

On this basis I have entered at 2373.
Loonie has been upto +40 but currently + 28

Tight trailing stop.

arco

Xerof
11-05-2005, 11:35 AM
Excellent Arco, we're riding this one together


quote:9/5 - I've stuck in a lazy bid for small at 1.2375 with razor tight stop below 1.2350

Xerof

Xerof
12-05-2005, 10:34 AM
Arco, a nice little canter last night;);)

arco
12-05-2005, 10:43 AM
Xerof

Yes, I also pyramided at 2416.

So currently +104 / +61

I like it whan a plan comes together.

arco

peat
12-05-2005, 10:48 AM
i was following that trade in spirit
alas not in $
well done guys

Xerof
12-05-2005, 10:49 AM
quote:All the kids in the marketplace
say:Way-oh-way-oh-way-ooo-aaa-ooo...
Walk like an Egyptian.
The Bangles

:D:D

arco
12-05-2005, 11:19 AM
Wrong currency? :D

All the Japanese with their yen
The party boys call the Kremlin
And the Chinese know (oh whey oh)
They walk the line like Egyptian

- Bangles

Xerof
12-05-2005, 11:21 AM
touche:D:D

slam
12-05-2005, 11:45 AM
showing our age now arn't we[8D]
Used to play that in a band years ago[:I]

Xerof
12-05-2005, 11:59 AM
You're only as old as you act - I'm currently 23

[^][^]

peat
12-05-2005, 12:39 PM
no no xerof
its "you're as young as the woman u feel"

Xerof
12-05-2005, 01:12 PM
bugger, that makes me (circa)50 then [xx(][xx(]

I prefer my original stance on this matter - anyone got a spare 23 year old?

slam
12-05-2005, 01:24 PM
Only if you want to take half of mine[:0]

Xerof
13-05-2005, 11:13 AM
Arco, bit of a roadblock here at 1.2520ish for the moment it seems

Is that level of any importance TA'wise?

Xerof

arco
13-05-2005, 11:33 AM
Currently trying to break an Ascending triangle.
Could be the 618 fib area causing a bit of resistance.
Once broken should continuing north IMO.

Safety precaution - maintain a watch for a positive break of
an 30 min 50 period SMA. This has been supporting well so far.

Xerof
16-05-2005, 10:09 AM
Just closed USD/CAD long at 1.26585 for 282.5 pips. Will look to rebuy at 1.2605, if I can raise the enthusiasm to continue trading the Loonie. Prefer others

Xerof

arco
18-05-2005, 02:32 PM
Immense pressure to conquer at 2695.

It looks like one small Butterfly may have
completed (forming Leg EW5), so we could see
some form of reversal here. A very large Gartley
appears to be also on its last legs.

Not too sure whether to keep my shorts on,
or remove them and see what happen ;)

arco

Xerof
18-05-2005, 03:34 PM
Ahem, keep them on poleeease;);)

but not too sure about your usd/cad position - buy/reverse at 1.2600 for 1.2750/1.2800?

Xerof

arco
19-05-2005, 08:05 AM
Ok Xerof, I kept my shorts on ;),
and very pleased I did too.

The previous days bearish Dark Cloud Cover candle,
a Tweezer Top, and a number of other factors pointed
to a low risk entry.

Wing your way south if you please.

http://www.crystalinks.com/movbutterfly.gif

arco

slam
19-05-2005, 08:15 AM
arco
I get an initial target of around 1.2500
fit with anything you have?
Cheers
Slam

Xerof
19-05-2005, 08:43 AM
AAAh, wonderful....position, attire and graphics:D:D

lakedaemonian
20-05-2005, 09:27 AM
exit short at 1.2570 for +65

It helps defray the cost of my recent "Pounding" [B)]

arco
20-05-2005, 09:30 AM
Slam

There are a number of possibilities IMO.
Next Gann level is circa 2451.

Short 2695 + 125

arco

slam
22-05-2005, 09:32 PM
arco

Will have a look at my charts again
Thanks for the reply

Cheers
Slam

arco
24-05-2005, 07:31 AM
Still moving in the right direction +118

Minor Gann support around here to be
broken @ 2573

arco

arco
26-05-2005, 08:03 AM
FWIW

Just received this info from a broker

JUNE CANADIAN DOLLAR - The Canada dollar bounced off the center line and traded higher as it approached Tuesday's reversal date. I look for the market to hit resistance and trade lower into the EOC (End of Cycle) reversal date due on May 27. A drop into this date could set up a significant buying opportunity.

lakedaemonian
28-05-2005, 08:56 AM
I closed my USD/CAD short at 26.40 for +40 late last night.....

Only to wake up this morning to find it fell off the cliff for another 100+ a few hours later Arrrrg!

Me thinks it's time for me to learn more about resistance/support levels.

arco
28-05-2005, 09:21 AM
Its those Butterflies again :D


quote:It looks like one small Butterfly may have
completed (forming Leg EW5), so we could see
some form of reversal here. A very large Gartley
appears to be also on its last legs.

Short 2695 now +153

arco
01-06-2005, 12:26 PM
The action has come up against the uptrend line and
is deciding where it should go next. Watching red
paint dry at the moment.

Still short +166

arco

Xerof
01-06-2005, 06:53 PM
Interesting cross currents here - CAD has gone against recent trends elsewhere - just been informed there's been a huge sell order going on for the past few days in EUR/CAD, and apparently still there today


So there you go - yet another non-USD pairing in the mix, along with EUR/JPY and EUR/GBP..no wonder EUR/USD got hammered

Xerof

arco
02-06-2005, 09:10 AM
Still short....... +241 at close

Expecting some support could come in
around a Gann level at 1.2451 (mentioned 20/5)
O/n low was 2448 - thats pretty close.



Now, if you fancy a read over coffee...........

Wed Jun 1 11:51:00 2005(EST)
* 01 Jun 05: 16:50(LDN) - NOW! USD/CAD, EUR/CAD Flows - CAD has confounded the market once again, more to come

CAD has caught the market on the hop. While the fundamental picture for the Canadian economy is not overwhelming, there is still a strong probability that the BoC will be raising rates as early as this summer. In this regard, especially in the context of today's price action, Thu's speech by BoC Governor Dodge on 'Monetary Policy & the Exchange Rate' will be scrutinized closely. Factors that have combined with the fundamentally positive CAD story in the short term are dominated by the broad based purge of EUR positions in the wake of the French referendum and the ongoing reports of soft data out of Europe. CAD is getting more attractive by the minute, especially after the sour news from the US ISM report today. Besides the fundamentals, M&A activity has been highlighted. China's Minmetals announced on Tue it was still interested in Noranda. Later on Tue, TIW reported the completion of a sale of one of its assets to Vodafone for an estimated USD3.5 bln, proceeds of which will be distributed to shareholders 'pursuant to a court-supervised Plan of Arrangement'. CAD may give back a bit of today's gains, but that will be seen as a buying opportunity by those that feel left behind...again.


* 01 Jun 05: 15:03(LDN) - FX NOW! EUR/USD, USD/CHF Flows - Asymetric reaction to ISM.

It's been that sort of market! The manufacturing ISM number at 51.4 was certainly lower than the market expectation of 52.3, from the April number at 53.3. However, the reaction could have been expected to be skewed slightly, with a bigger number likely to have seen a bigger market reaction. If EUR/USD does struggle back to 1.2300, then expect more selling. For the rest of it - the big data-point approaches with Friday's non-farm payroll. C.F.


* 01 Jun 05: 14:53(LDN) - NOW! USD/CAD, EUR/CAD Flows - EUR/CAD sellers forced to late 2003 levels

CAD has confounded the market. USD/CAD was set to range trade, leaving EUR/CAD to extend its tendency to move to new lows. The price action that followed the latest purge of EUR longs may have started with a US money center bank pushing EUR/JPY through 133.00 to intraday lows of 132.70-75. But, once EUR/CAD sellers found bids hard to find, prices spiralled lower, catching the market off guard. Today's intraday low of 1.5268 has not been seen since Nov 2003 and the lows have not been seen yet. EUR/CAD support is difficult to uncover, but 1.5014 and then 1.4890 are two levels that cannot be ignored. CAD price action may have been sparked by the unlikely purge of EUR/JPY, but once it took hold, EUR/CAD was dictating direction for USD/CAD, where today's intraday low of 1.2470 is still in the middle of May's trading range. US ISM data will be the market's next test.


* 01 Jun 05: 13:34(LDN) - NOW! USD/CAD, EUR/CAD Flows - CAD shodowing USD, watch for US data to lead the way

CAD has attached itself to the USD and refuses to move significantly in either direction in USD/CAD terms. Attaching itself to USD has help to extend the trend toward lower prices in EUR/CAD and there is little to suggest the trend is close to a bottom. US data will set the tone for both currencies with today's ISM report next. Technically, look for USD/CAD to range trade with support seen at 1.2525 and resistance up at 1.2590. EUR/CAD will be shadowing EUR/USD, with momentum likely to stall for a while before picking up again to explore new lows.

arco
07-06-2005, 10:17 AM
Remaining short.... +255 at close.

Trailing a tight stop now.

arco
16-06-2005, 08:59 AM
A couple of Butterfly target zones
loom ahead circa 2150=2300 with possible
Gann support levels in the same area
at 2329 Minor/2207 Major.


Short from 2695 - Currently + 344

arco
20-06-2005, 08:09 AM
Still heading into the target zones
and towards the Gan support levels.

Short from 2695 - Currently +406 at Fri close

arco
30-06-2005, 12:10 PM
Still creeping down slowly.......

CAD appears to be out of the Bear Flag which
looks like good news but Mrs Gann at 2207 is
holding up progress.


Short from 2695 - Currently +411 at Wed close.

Xerof
30-06-2005, 01:11 PM
Arco, you should find this site of interest. Types as he talks I guess, but look down the page for his VERY BEARISH views on USD/CAD. He seems to be relying on "History repeats", but my advice would be to listen to SplitENZ


quote:History never repeats
I tell myself before I go to sleep
And there's a light shining in the dark
Leading me on towards a change of heart

http://makoml.blogs.com/blog/

No hidden meanings :D:D

cheers

Xerof

arco
30-06-2005, 01:40 PM
Hi Xerof

Yes, thats an interesting blog.

Late confirmation on that Cad short, considering
we have been bearish from away back when.

He obviously needs to read ST everyday for a few good
tips from the 'A' team who really know how to grasp
a Butterfly net. ;)

Anyway, back to feed the Monarchs. They take alot
of looking after. Plus Mrs Gann is moaning......again!






............that hubby is away too much.

arco

arco
30-06-2005, 01:54 PM
Hi Xerof

And on an aside re Split Enz.

'True colours' was one of my all time favourite albums.
In fact I wore the tape out. - Now have the CD.
(Not that History Repeats was on that album,
but it is definately one of their best IMO.

arco

arco
01-07-2005, 09:41 AM
The Long and Winding Road, takes me to...

another 34 pips overnight..........

Short from 2695 - Currently +445 at Wed close.

Anyway you'll never know the many ways I've tried, but
Still they lead me back to the long and winding road

arco
02-07-2005, 05:15 PM
All good things have to come to
and end. Major Gann and his chaps
situated at 2207 stood firm
without flinching and repelled the
loonie invader.

Stop hit at 2338 + 357]

arco
08-07-2005, 09:05 AM
Feeling lucky?

Might be an opp here for a low risk long.
Recent low 2230 and Major Gann at 2207.

Be on the look out for a possible reversal pattern.

arco
11-07-2005, 03:57 PM
With Fridays close at 2184 and Major Gann positioned
around 2207 the Loonie will soon head north with its tail
between its legs IMVHO.

Fly north you loonie bird, and be quick about it.

Hesitate at 2451 if you dare - to coin a phrase.

http://members.shaw.ca/leonard92/one.gif

Xerof
11-07-2005, 04:08 PM
Yes I tossed and turned over buying USD/CAD on Friday night, but thought I'd wait and see what happens early this week. Might add a sliver or two on a trailing s/l entry above your infamous 12207 level. Seems a very high correlation with oil is driving this pair short term, for what others are saying....

Xerof

Xerof
11-07-2005, 04:13 PM
Arco, what sort of tolerance can Gann can, before Gann can't?

arco
11-07-2005, 04:52 PM
Xerof

Good question.
But, there is no answer to it unfortunately.

All I can say is that in theory Gann 2207 should
be a very powerful support.

Additionally the action is within a Butterfly
target reversal zone, and just on the new uptrend line.

arco

Xerof
11-07-2005, 07:43 PM
Arco, what about the fairly obvious bearish flag on the weekly?
I guess we need to wait for the end of this week, as last weeks close on the flag bottom was very borderline and probably couldn't be called a breakout

peat
11-07-2005, 08:13 PM
Xerof
yes it looks like a med-long term continuation pattern to me
this just came out from GFT news
"It is one way business as far as [USD/CAD] is concerned with the post employment data reaction for both the US and Canada falling in favour of the downtrend. Refreshed technical sell signals though 1.2250 have now combined with the upbeat fundamental picture for the Loonie and players are looking towards tests of 1.2000. This week's chief risk events lie with either BOC or trade data. However, players see both as potential boosters for the downtrend, eyeing the CB meet to firm up the date of the expected first hike, whilst trade historically acts to garner support for the Loonie. Sales into strength are preferred whilst below 1.2300. A build of option barriers through 1.1950-1.2050 provide the mainstay of support. "

interestinly Martin calls it differently
says its going to build a base and advance
"Gold Coast Martin 06:51 GMT July 10, 2005
RE:CAD..12134 is its base for now with a 12268-78 GOOD TARGET....further out cad is developing a longing theme that will peak out at 12785-90 in the next 2 months...."

Xerof
11-07-2005, 08:31 PM
I know Peat, we've got the best TA man and the man with the flows both taking a caning in terms of price action (thats not a criticism of Arco or GCM).

I want to get in but some little bird (perhaps its the Loonie) keeps telling me to stay out, and so far its paid off.


Arco, could you oblige with a post displaying your emerging butterfly reversal - I can't see it, but then I'm no lepidopterist and it may be well camoflauged[|)][|)]

Xerof (cabbage white)

arco
11-07-2005, 09:47 PM
Evening All

Yes, its looking a bit odd, but Major
Gann may come to the rescue. I think we
have to see what the EOD candle looks like.
If it turns into a hammer we may get lucky.
If its a long black I will have a re-think
in the AM over a cup of coffee.

Anyway, I still have a long order in just
above the action at 2220 - in case the
Loonie flys north at high speed while I'm
having a kip.

Xerof
11-07-2005, 10:26 PM
I can thoroughly recommend Allpress beans, if you happen to own a Rocket E61 and a decent grinder. We can't get it here in the Bay, instead relying on every and any one going through to Taupo to pick some up from Flax for us, who very kindly acquiese to many strange requests for 200gms of their finest ground Allpress - takeaway please (as a grinder is Mrs Xerof's next birthday present, so to speak)

Anyone tried it?- you Jaffa's have probably moved on from Allpress to some other concoction, yet to be even written about in the colonial outposts beyond the bombay pale:D:D

Xerof (flat cabbage white)

peat
11-07-2005, 11:46 PM
The Loonie is a much disagreed matter

Almaty BA 12:42 GMT July 11, 2005
Beijing Laowen 12:39 GMT July 11, 2005
IMVHO - it is a buy lets see with stop loss around 1.2100!!!

Beijing Laowen 12:39 GMT July 11, 2005
Almaty BA 12:36 GMT July 11, 2005 //

But I feel it is a sell. IMHO.

Almaty BA 12:36 GMT July 11, 2005
USD/CAD is a buy !!!

arco
12-07-2005, 11:38 AM
As I said last night.......
If it turns into a hammer we may get lucky.

There is a nice Hammer on EOD.....so watching with interest.
(Keep an eye on Minor Gann at 2085 for possible support)

Xerof
If you start from 7/2 you should be able to net a
tiny one. But don't get in a flap.

slam
13-07-2005, 01:22 PM
looks like the bounce is on
missed it, watching the ASX:(

Cheers slam

Xerof
19-07-2005, 09:19 PM
1.2207. Reckon this one is next to burst out of the blocks and if it goes the way I'm thinking, the NZD and AUD should follow a few hours later.

Caveat - resistance at 1.2250 and 1.2300, but hey, thats a few piparoonies to be had if thats the way it breaks[^][^]

Xerof
19-07-2005, 11:20 PM
This one also has a very nice cup and handle formation on the hourly, which may assist with legging it higher

Xerof

Xerof
20-07-2005, 09:07 PM
Nup, from yesterday, broke up but couldn't break first fib level of prevailing trend, and today has broken downside of triangle at 12185, for a reasonably quick 30 pips so far....

arco
26-08-2005, 12:06 PM
Oh well, if you missed grabbing some of that 300 pip
run after my posts on 11/7-12/7 it may be time to start
looking again for all those familiar reversal signs.
(Gann Minor at 1841 could lend a hand).

Whoops, sorry to disturb those sleeping :D
Back to the Sudoku

Xerof
26-08-2005, 04:18 PM
Arco, there's a few billion here if you have a moment.....

www.websudoku.com

I've done a couple of 'evil's - and can confirm they are....

nice weekend to all - bring on September...we'll 'spring' into action then....

Xerof

arco
26-08-2005, 04:26 PM
Hello Xerof

Thanks - Yes Sudoku is very addictive,
(and Mrs Arco is hooked as well).

Have a look here foe a few more sites.

http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/topic.asp?TOPIC_ID=21915

Good weekend all.

arco
27-08-2005, 08:09 AM
Entered at 1945 on the 30m ascending triangle break.
Currently + 50. Selling half and moving stop on bal
to b/e.

arco
29-08-2005, 11:17 AM
.........50% balance stopped out at break-even.

Half a loaf is better than none at all :D

arco
12-09-2005, 11:28 AM
Looking a tad interesting again.

The Looney is in a potential turnaround zone so
well worth watching for any signs of reversal.

Gann at 1718 could lend a hand with some support.

GTA

arco

arco
13-09-2005, 08:05 AM
Circa 100 pips for those brave souls who
stumbled aboard the Looney express yesterday.

......I like it when a plan comes together :)

slam
13-09-2005, 08:56 AM
Morning arco
Good spotting again
Was looking for a small retrace to get in but it never had one[}:)]
Watching GBP and EUR for a reversal atm;)
Cheers
Slam

arco
16-09-2005, 10:23 AM
Still in the race here with a portion of
the old order. Stop on balance now at b/e

arco
19-09-2005, 09:33 PM
If anyone is following this trade I have now reversed the balance of the long trade at 1815 (+70)

Short now +8

arco

arco
20-09-2005, 06:24 AM
I have decided to close off the CAD short now
for a nice overnight profit and will re-evaluate
later once I check out thr EOD chart.


+129 pips

arco

peat
20-09-2005, 06:55 AM
well done arco

arco
21-09-2005, 09:30 AM
Trying a shot at a short term long here
- in @ 1688 (+ 6).

Risky trade, but jumping the gun on a
possible Ascending Triangle forming on the 15m.
If it breaks resistance circa 1707 there should be
a chance of adding few pips to the pot.

Tight stop

arco

arco
21-09-2005, 11:48 AM
Up trend line broken
Trade closed -6 pips.

arco
23-09-2005, 10:53 AM
This is one that actually looks a tad interesting.

No glaring confirmation yet, but the action is playing within a potential reversal zone, so worth keeping an eye on the Looney as it could break north at some point in the short/medium term.

arco

arco
28-09-2005, 03:54 PM
Could have made circa 100 pips on that wee north bound move in the last 4 days. [V]

Anyway the 15 minute has a possible Narrowing Wedge forming, so you never know - if the uptrend line breaks there could be a few pips to be had due south.

arco

arco
29-09-2005, 08:32 AM
The Narrowing Wedge broke around 18.30 and polarity change was tested around 3.30 am. I had a short order, sitting just below the most recent pivot low, which got hit at 1750.

Currently + 3.....Wow I'm rich already :D

The Oscillator is still below the centre line, however the action is still within a potential reversal zone so I will treat this one with an air of caution.

arco

arco
29-09-2005, 09:18 PM
I have just closed this position +24 for reasons mentioned earlier.

arco
10-10-2005, 11:49 AM
I mentioned this possible on 12/9.


quote:Looking a tad interesting again.
The Looney is in a potential turnaround zone so
well worth watching for any signs of reversal.
Gann at 1718 could lend a hand with some support.

This may be the turn we have been waiting for.
(Bullish engulfing on weekly)

http://www.khalsaspad.com/files/101005but_454.gif

arco

Xerof
13-10-2005, 10:38 AM
A bullish gartley may have completed on the 360 min chart a couple of bars ago, to add to your longer term butterfly Arco.

Reckon its worth a flutter? Where's Colonel Gann encamped?

Xerof

arco
13-10-2005, 11:02 AM
Morning Xerof

I am long this one and showing -30 at the moment [V] after being nicely in profit yesterday (up around +80).

Gann is at 1719 and I've given him a blast on his mobile to tell him to stand firm at all costs. I've told him bluntly, there will be no Christmas party this year if he fails on this one.

arco ;)

arco
13-10-2005, 04:06 PM
Major Gann has just been on the blower. Something about seeing a Mr Gartley heading north chasing a bull of all things.

I told him. 'You've better things to do - like defending your post'.

Baa....If only he had PXT.

Xerof
13-10-2005, 05:40 PM
Gann last seen heading in this direction Arco :D:D

http://img408.imageshack.us/img408/5429/usdcad8wp.png

Home James ... and don't spare the horses, (and be sure to swat those cursed butterflies)

arco
13-10-2005, 06:10 PM
Excellent Xerof you have nabbed the Red-spotted Purple.

I'm still reaching for the green...... but are you aboard the Maple Leaf express?

-23....the suspense

arco

Xerof
13-10-2005, 06:25 PM
'Yes, well, go on then' he says, 'driver - follow that gartley'

All aboard the Loonie - North to Alaska on the 11717

peat
13-10-2005, 09:52 PM
well your actually aboard the $ arent you[:p]
i liked the chart so much i've joined in at 1.1729 , will try to be strong and give it some room to round up the troops ,

Xerof
13-10-2005, 10:08 PM
Yup Peat long$

mush mush

<center>http://img431.imageshack.us/img431/4620/huskies6ec.jpg</center>

s/l at 11670 for me, just below gartley turntable

hearing oil insiders selling the rally last 24 hours - the rally in black gold I mean;);)

Xerof

peat
14-10-2005, 05:16 AM
nice one guys... seems like it went beserk almost immediately while I snoozed
closed out at +102
:D

arco
14-10-2005, 08:33 AM
Morning Peat - I did say Maple Leaf EXPRESS :D

This is a move I've been waiting for for some time. I did mention the possibility of a reversal on 12/9 and again on 10/10 showing the chart. Ain't it just great when a plan comes together.

Our friend the Looney has a good correlation to oil, so heres the set up and why you might be able to fill up your tank a little cheaper in the short term.

http://www.khalsaspad.com/files/101305_136.gif

arco

arco
14-10-2005, 09:14 AM
Minor Gann at 1841 could be affecting progress in the short term.

arco

Xerof
14-10-2005, 10:34 AM
So Arco, on your weekly butterfly reversal, do you look to target the major fibs, like .618%, which in this case would be 1.2100?

On my 360min Gartley reversal, we've already tested the 1.272% extension level near 11850, somewhat better than the typical .618% target.

Some expert guidance on how to identify targets would be gratefully received, but I guess it depends on timeframes used to identify the patterns

Xerof

I've raised trailing stop to 11770, just below the broken trendline resistance drawn across last two highs on 360 min chart

Xerof
14-10-2005, 10:37 AM
Re Oil chart - a very nice 'return to the neckline' last couple of days, in preparation for the decline to mid 50's[:p][:p]

Gives further comfort to USD/CAD trade, given high correlation

arco
14-10-2005, 11:06 AM
Xerof

Targets.

I think its really quite an individual choice depending on many factors.

I tend to look at Fibs for guidence but since no one knows where the top might exactly be then it is sometimes better to let the market action tell you where to take your profit. Perhaps this could be by exiting with a trailing stop, tightening it as the action plays out.

Another alternative is to have a range of set profit targets (perhaps using Fib numbers) and exit as they are hit.

The weekly target would be the brown box on the DT line.

EOD chart has printed a 3 Methods candle pattern (bullish).


arco

Chart update...........

http://www.khalsaspad.com/files/101405_798.gif

Xerof
14-10-2005, 11:16 AM
Great, thanks Arco, that clears it up, from the perspective that there's no established set of rules for the aftermath of pattern completion. (but I note you pick a minimum 12100 area, .618% as a target, as did I)

Playing it by ear, but will run the trailing stop as per previous post.

Xerof

peat
14-10-2005, 11:56 AM
OH! some big targets there - clearly i departed too soon, but it really was nice to bag something. You guys rock.

Xerof
14-10-2005, 12:39 PM
Peat, I'm sure I'll bow to temptation and bag some profit well before those levels are seen, but will be experimenting with trailing stops to see how long I can stay in.

IMO, entry is the difficult part of the exercise - once successfully in, with some phat prophets up the sleeve, it becomes a more pleasant occupation

Xerof

slam
14-10-2005, 01:01 PM
Pete
I sold 1/2 at 1.1838
Will pick up some more if it drops far enough, if not, will grab some more on the way past the Gann that arco mentioned
Different strokes...
No harm in treating 1 LT trade as several small ones, I just have to keep reminding myself of the big picture:)

Cheers
Slam

Xerof
14-10-2005, 01:14 PM
Slam,

I see you've emigrated....has CHCH got THAT cold? :D:D

slam
14-10-2005, 01:21 PM
When do you know a trader is boarded?
When he keeps changing his location or avatar[8D]

[|)]slam

peat
14-10-2005, 10:09 PM
oh yeh i got back in @1.1821
looks like its remembered which way it wants to go again ;)

peat
15-10-2005, 07:40 AM
once the statistics stopped blurring the picture again a powerful move north , this time my 20 pip trailing stop got hit at 1.1866 +45 .
Those huskies were a bit tired , but still put in a good effort!

peat
18-10-2005, 05:05 AM
took a hit on it tonite... -38 [V]

Xerof
18-10-2005, 07:55 AM
Out of this pair after trailing stop (raised last night to 11820) hit at NY open.

Xerof

arco
18-10-2005, 09:45 AM
Likewise, trailing stop hit o/n.

slam
18-10-2005, 10:06 AM
Ditto, Trailing Hit[V]
May have found support around here though

Slam

slam
18-10-2005, 01:43 PM
Support looking a bit better now
worth watching

slam

arco
19-10-2005, 11:56 AM
Here we go - I think ;)

Looks like a WW setup for a run north.
In at 1778....see how it goes. +5

http://www.khalsaspad.com/files/101905_134.gif

slam
19-10-2005, 12:07 PM
Hi arco
WWs seem to popping up on few of your charts lately;)

slam

arco
19-10-2005, 12:19 PM
Hi Slam

Yep, whatever works.................

just another tool in the pip collectors ars*enal ;)

Gann. Gartley. Wolfe.........put 'em in the melting pot and whaddyaget...........pips (hopefully)

arco

Xerof
19-10-2005, 12:22 PM
Hehe,

I was waiting for 11740 personally (gartley as usual:):)) but having seen your recent WW success on GBP, have whistled up the hounds and joined the hunt on the strength of that.

Seems Rest of World like to buy it, then North America smash it back in the last few sessions...

Xerof

arco
19-10-2005, 12:30 PM
Hi Xerof

Well I only stepped in with 25% of the usual order and will average once I see how it goes.

In classic Wolfe Wave I understand the buy point is when the action hits the 1-3 line.

arco

arco
20-10-2005, 08:46 AM
Morning All

Yesterdays minor reversal gave circa 40 pips for scalping wolf hunters, and now today we see the possibility of a Falling Wedge forming.

Falling wedges can be either reversal or continuation patterns. When they occur in downtrends they are almost always reversal patterns.

Therefore - a low risk entry can be obtained IMO

Adding another 25% @ 1752

arco

http://www.khalsaspad.com/files/102005_can_200.gif

Xerof
20-10-2005, 08:52 AM
Added at 11740, as suggested yesterday, but with a VERY tight stop on both at 11730.

On a closer look, and to add another formation into the mix, I wonder if this is the slightly bigger piccy for USD.CAD

http://img416.imageshack.us/img416/2939/usdcad0dl.png

Interestingly, if I were to add another line at the beginning of this formation, and join points 1 and 4, I can also get a WW, meaning it should drop immediately and head for 11550. Hence my tight stop.

BTW, Mr Wolfe's waves look very similar to classic falling and rising wedge formations. Anybody willing to pay USD3k to do his course, with a requirement to sign a confidentiality agreement?

Xerof

arco
20-10-2005, 08:59 AM
Morning Xerof

Yes I think thats all WW's are bascially, perhaps with a few additional refinements. I looked at the idea several years ago and at that time realised they were still not the Holy Grail.

I havent got the EOD yet from Rooters,,,,15 minutes to go before its available, so I will be getting a better idea then (I hope).

Perhaps a good idea to scalp some pips off CAD until the direction is more clear.

arco

Xerof
20-10-2005, 09:08 AM
Morning Arco, seems we were both beavering on this one at the same time. If you take your 60 min view, and my daily view, should be heading to 11900+ [8)][8)]

As I say, my only concern is a direct loss of the short term trend line, which would only add to Mr Wolfe's credibility and subtract from my capital[xx(][xx(]

Xerof

arco
20-10-2005, 09:35 AM
11963 perhaps.

The new uptrend line is intact on the EOD, but I would prefer to see the oscillator above the zero line. Action is still struggling to exit the Buttefly traps.

arco

arco
20-10-2005, 03:06 PM
Sleepy scalpers or even techy traders with a million units can breeze home now with 20 pips ($1700).......then again - who knows, there may be more).

Xerof
20-10-2005, 04:00 PM
I closed at 68. Not sure about it so out for some pin money[|)][|)]

arco
20-10-2005, 05:18 PM
Well, I will see what it looks like later this evening and make the decision at that point. Currently +21

As I'm off for a long weekend I may take the profit and spend it on some (more) new clothes for the better half....or perhaps even a deposit on a Med cruise :D

arco

slam
21-10-2005, 02:40 PM
Good call last night on this Xerof:)
All over the place atm


Cheers
slam

arco
25-10-2005, 09:55 AM
Hi All

I mentioned on Thursday "Falling wedges can be either reversal or continuation patterns. When they occur in downtrends they are [u]almost always reversal patterns</u>".

We now see that reality giving those who held for the short term a maximum of circa 185 pips

arco

http://www.khalsaspad.com/files/102505_846.gif

Xerof
25-10-2005, 10:11 AM
Agreed and very nicely called Arco, but see daily chart below - welcome your opinion. Stumped by the false break down to 11715. There was also a lovely bullish flag formation on Friday on the 60 min chart which yielded a full cent or so by late Monday

DAILY is forming a [u]rising</u> wedge, which is usually a continuation pattern (but can also sometimes signal a reversal, although rare, Murphy pg 147)

Last nights activity stopped dead in its tracks at 11920, so still wondering about this one - I guess its best to watch and wait and trade the breakout either way huh?

http://img484.imageshack.us/img484/5660/usdcad4hl.png

Xerof

arco
25-10-2005, 10:50 AM
Hi Xerof

Yes, a Rising Wedge is certainly one possibility, but compare what would have appeared like a forming Rising Wedge in March and one can see the problem in this situation. That plot went on circa 600 pips further north.

One should perhaps still class the action as a possible new uptrend until the new uptrend line breaks.

slam
26-10-2005, 08:43 AM
Hi All
Getting close to lower support on uptrend
Telling Time;)

Cheers
Slam

Xerof
26-10-2005, 01:18 PM
Still tracing out this wedge formation on the daily, with rising trend line holding OK this morning.

I'm small long USD.CAD at 11800[:0][:0], based on the longer term possibilities noted elsewhere. Stop is at 11735

Xerof

Xerof
26-10-2005, 06:22 PM
chopped the position before stop level - think we might see better levels

Xerof

Xerof
27-10-2005, 07:52 AM
Validation for being nervous about the bearish wedge....

http://img239.imageshack.us/img239/8447/usdcad9se.png

peat
03-05-2006, 06:33 PM
Trying to catch a falling knife here. Long @ 1.1033 stop 1.0990

arco
03-05-2006, 08:34 PM
Hi Peat

Yes, I just scalped 10 pips for fun until I get
a more positive confirmed reversal signal.

The action could possible turn round in the
PRZ. (Red Box)This is one of several charts
I put on BF thread recently.

http://img477.imageshack.us/img477/9899/050306butts2tv.gif

Regards - arco

peat
04-05-2006, 07:50 AM
stop loss moved to b/e

whats BF arco?

Xerof
04-05-2006, 09:51 AM
BF=

http://img490.imageshack.us/img490/4286/butterfly7or.jpg

and I'm still around...lol


Xerof

peat
04-05-2006, 10:17 AM
doh! I thought he meant another site. yeh I had seen it on the other thread and the Danes have been suggesting USD/CAD was a buy for a day or two. They were saying that a bit early on the NZD too, but if you give them a bit of leeway they can get things quite right

thx Xerof

peat
04-05-2006, 12:50 PM
closed +50 MACD is turning down and this was a scalp type trade.

arco
04-05-2006, 01:29 PM
Bit miffed my long at 1010 just missed be taken
for a nice ride. I was just toooo greedy I guess [:0]

arco
28-11-2006, 04:56 PM
Always a chance the action may force through the Kumo and enter the Blue Box area.

Less amazing things have happened, but just waiting for that magical reversal signal before pouncing ;)

http://www.khalsaspad.com/files/112906_usd.cad.gif

regards - arco

peat
28-11-2006, 09:50 PM
already had a bit of a smackdown...

arco
28-11-2006, 10:03 PM
Hi Peat

Yes, thats a weekly chart, so patience may be required
for the possible reversal pattern to appear.
Possible Gann around 1292 may assist, and I will be doing
a little more contemplating tomorrow once I get the EOD candle.

regards - arco

arco
30-11-2006, 09:26 AM
Hope a few day traders/scalpers took advantage of
the Gann support I mentioned and grabbed circa 90 pips.

Thanks Mr Gann - you've worked your magic again.

peat
30-11-2006, 10:05 AM
no , but I did retain the 30 pips I got on the way down thanks Arco getting out at 98 after your mention of the Gann.

arco
01-12-2006, 08:52 AM
For Gann Fans

Looney went on higher to give a max of 140 pips so far.

arco

peat
01-12-2006, 11:29 AM
With ya Arco, but was a bit late entering long , so its only a small positive so far.

The Ichi on the 1 hr time frame never broke , last I looked.

The strength on the USD in this cross is rather contrary to USD everywhere else. Strange? I thought it would be more similar to AUD or NZD, you know, as in commodity currencies (and hence down) but evidently not.

peat
01-12-2006, 07:19 PM
a bullish falling wedge over the last 18 hours.

which it verily proceeded to smash through on the downside [:I], and pretty much immediately reach the obvious target distance = the verticle edge of the aforementioned wedge.

peat
02-12-2006, 10:52 AM
and then proceeded to be somewhat bullish as the wedge suggested [?] no complaints here tho. just forex keeping me humble heheh.

peat
05-12-2006, 02:51 AM
the hourly keeps bouncing off the cloud tonite

arco
13-12-2006, 08:56 PM
Re Posted - 28/11/2006

OK that was definately yer Xmas prezzy for this year....at least +250 pips anyway.

Please send Johnny Walker to the usual address ;)

arco

roddy
14-12-2006, 10:31 AM
Thanks Arco will be sending Johnny over shortly with
cash box in hand for purchase of THE Book and the balance into the Arco Hedge Fund::D
:D

Thanks in advance
Cadet Roddy


http://img204.imageshack.us/img204/7195/noname105po4.jpg

roddy
18-12-2006, 05:34 PM
could we see a pull back in this pair?


http://img185.imageshack.us/img185/5061/noname106se5.jpg
cheers cadet

arco
18-12-2006, 07:53 PM
Hi Roddy

Yes quite possible in the near future.

I have 2 Butterflies on my chart and they are more proportioned. Have another look you will see what I mean.

regards - arco

roddy
18-12-2006, 08:39 PM
Hi Arco,
heres one, i havent spotted the other one yet, can you tell me where X is for the second

http://img155.imageshack.us/img155/6923/noname107km1.jpg

arco
18-12-2006, 10:05 PM
Hi Roddy

Yes, that new chart is the larger overall BF, and the other one which gave a nice short was 17/10 to 21/11, but you can also get a slightly mishapen one from 21/11 to current. It ties in nicely with the large BF to give double the reversal power (eventually) IMO.

regards - arco

roddy
14-06-2007, 01:13 PM
crab meat anybody,
roddy
http://img507.imageshack.us/img507/4498/cadnc1.jpg

peat
14-06-2007, 02:01 PM
I posted this on another forum last night Roddy

Auckland peat 10:56 GMT June 13, 2007
the low of USD/CAD at 1.0548 was (within 10 pips) of the perfect 423% fib extn of 1.1875 to 1.1564.
It bounced a bit at the 261.8.% ext at 1.1061 , but having passed on through that without retracing sufficiently imo it vastly increases the chances it should go back there and retest. i.e retrace 38% of this entire move from 1.1875 - 1.0548

roddy
14-06-2007, 02:59 PM
Hi Peat

thats a coincidence,i overlaid your fib ext and see exactly what you mean,so are you long this one at present?

arco
14-06-2007, 04:02 PM
Roddy

My thoughts are/were CAD to be a short.

1.0742 is a major Gann line (heavy resistance was expected)
The action has already tested this Gann line and eased back.

regards -arco

roddy
14-06-2007, 04:35 PM
Hi Arco
thanks for that,will stand aside for the moment then

peat
14-06-2007, 04:52 PM
quote:Originally posted by roddy

so are you long this one at present?

no. its a theoretical stance only [8)]

arco
14-06-2007, 05:12 PM
Roddy

There may be a trade to be had depending on your time frame, so may I suggest to keep your options open.

The Bollingers are currently tigtening on several time frames so keep an eye on those and you may be able to trade a break in whatever direction the action breaks away.

That would be one way of approaching the current situation and would allow for a very tight stop.

regards - arco

arco
30-06-2007, 09:40 AM
14/6

My thoughts are/were CAD to be a short......1.0742 is a major Gann line


Its taken awhile to get there but a major sell off yesterday gave
the opportuninty to grab 250 pips on the further fall.

The white Hammer/Harami on todays EOD chart looks interesting...

Good weekend all- arco

arco
06-09-2007, 09:52 AM
Could Loonie be in a basing pattern???

Weekly chart shows good divergence.

No position presently.

dumbass
09-09-2007, 09:52 AM
following closely your possible cad trade arco, getting close to cross on macd and stoch on daily

bollinger band contraction

support 10470

is it advisable to second guess oscillator cross or wait untill prints , i suppose a day in forex land is a long time and that cross could easily come unstuck

arco
10-09-2007, 05:48 PM
DA

Crossovers are just a message that something may be about to happen,
but dont count on them 100&#37;. Confirm with other indicators (but not
too many - that can be just as confusing).

Recent observations.

The Q Stick on my Loonie chart seems to be following an EW pattern
currently a,b,c perhaps.....now that interesting.

Circa 1.0476 has held support now on 8 days through August.

rgds - arco

dumbass
13-09-2007, 07:58 AM
further weakness in usd looming ??

arco
13-09-2007, 07:24 PM
DA

Nice charting. Where are your charts from?

Loonie looks like it might break down further.

rgds - arco

roddy
13-09-2007, 07:40 PM
DA
i was thinking the same thing as ARCO, great charts.



i am long Euro in at 3843 letting the trend do its thing this time and not closing out too early.

cheers
roddy

dumbass
17-09-2007, 07:16 PM
thanks guys , just on metastock and if you save as html and open in paint the image is small

enough to be posted.

i can give more details if you want

dumbass
18-09-2007, 08:23 PM
DA

Nice charting. Where are your charts from?

Loonie looks like it might break down further.

rgds - arco

this one could be an interesting one to follow as a study case , getting close to reversal zone

butterfly on a deep crab

im still not sure what your smoking arco but it looks like good ****

how did you know the loonie was the one to watch

arco
18-09-2007, 09:32 PM
...........butterfly on a deep crab - thats probably illegal in NZ (we're soooo PC)

.....how did you know the loonie was the one to watch......Simple fibonacci stuff really - theres a longstanding shape from June 06 (incredible likeness to a bat) that is in the potential fib reversal zone, a Gartley from Nov 05, plus the one/s you've noted, all tying in. Add the divergence on the weekly, and it shouts ........keep an eye on the action chaps - just in case this may be the real thing.

dumbass
19-09-2007, 06:33 PM
DA
i was thinking the same thing as ARCO, great charts.



i am long Euro in at 3843 letting the trend do its thing this time and not closing out too early.

cheers
roddy

and your asking for our help ??

roddy
20-09-2007, 08:36 AM
Hi DB

I consider myself very much a learner at this stage,i tend to carry a too tighter stop, I am very conscious of preservation of capital, was short the kiwi twice on 17 sept got stopped twice only to see it fall to 7020,the EURO i got tired of waiting,rejoined at the breakout but got stopped again.
i trade a mini account and since start of April have made 34% return,doing 110 trades,don't know whether thats good or average.

cheers
roddy

dumbass
20-09-2007, 08:44 AM
sounds pretty good to me , probably alot more trades than i would do in that time but your making money which puts you ahead of the rest and me , well done

arco
20-09-2007, 11:41 AM
Roddy.

Consider yourself in the top 5%.............the other 95% are loosing money, and will soon be contacting you to buy signals.


rgds - arco

peat
21-09-2007, 05:59 AM
wow
parity

peat
05-10-2007, 11:42 AM
my netdania skills arent that great but you get the picture... those solid horizontal lines are the std fibs and somewhere around 9956 would be the 78 % retracement. about 10 pips lower than it is now... stop would be 9936. I havent showed it but there is RSI divergence from the 22:00 low.


http://img440.imageshack.us/img440/218/usdcad15min05102007bv6.jpg (http://imageshack.us)

arco
05-10-2007, 12:03 PM
Hi Peat

Might be a little trade......

Did you see/trade the Gartley prior?

Yellow horizontal is 786

arco

peat
05-10-2007, 06:53 PM
no I never saw that one. do you think two in a row means double the power? it has after all been a massive decline... surely theres no one left to go short anymore. should really investigate those COT stats or whatever it is that publishes the number of open positions


I also been thinking about what Carney says re time as well how its less important than price and thats good coz clearly nothing significant will happen till after midnite....

arco
05-10-2007, 07:51 PM
Hi Peat

I havent read Carneys 1st book, so I'm in not up with his thinking re timing. My personal thoughts on timing would be uniform 'shape' - which can be created with perfect timing.

Interesting re the Loonie harmonics.......there was actually another little tuquoise Gartley hidden away in the belly of the red number. (see diagram....I've also added TLs which can be considered for potential reversal areas).

rgds - arco

peat
06-10-2007, 12:33 AM
and that is why we have stops!
100 pips down below where mine were now.

roddy
11-10-2007, 07:53 PM
Hi Arco/all

Keepinp a watchful eye on this one,as it has dropped through the shorter term butterfly at fib 161 level,and it is now nearing the fib 261 medium term butterfly starting Aug 06 level.

Carney maintains that .618 and 1.61 are the most important numbers,however could it be possible that there could be a base forming at .9790 with
the 261 level at.9700.

cheers roddy

arco
11-10-2007, 10:25 PM
Roddy

I think Carney stipulates B786/D1618 as the ideal BF,
however Loonie is at D200 and 423 of BC so a little
extended presently. Q-Stick is in divergence.

We away the magical reversal signal

rgds -arco

roddy
12-10-2007, 08:21 AM
Arco/Peat

yes you are right regard butter fly, i made a random statement out of context as i had just listened to a mp3 from Carneys site with him being interviewed on radio and in that he mentions .618 and 1.618 as being of high significance generally!

And Peat his preferred time frame to trade is 15 min chart

cheers
roddy

dumbass
22-10-2007, 11:28 AM
5th wave elliot count on dailies

divergence on q stick

bat on the hourlies

watching for a north move

arco
24-10-2007, 10:29 AM
Morning All

The Loonie may have formed a STICK SANDWICH candlestick pattern.
Also note the Tweezer (bottom?) on the Reuters EOD chart.

http://www.candlestickforum.com/store/images/Stick-Sandwich.jpg

The Stick Sandwich looks somewhat like an ice cream sandwich. it consists of two dark candles with a white candle in between. The closing prices of the two black candles are equal. This demonstrates an obvious support price. The probability of a reversal in the trend is high from this area.

Criteria

1. A downtrend is concluded with a large black candle followed by a white candle. The white candle opens above the black canldes close, and closes above the black candle's open.
2. The final day completely engulfs the white candle and closes at the same level as the previous black candle.

Pattern Psychology

The Bears have been in control for awhile. At the end of the downtrend, the last black candle is followed by a large white candle. The white candle opens higher than the lcose of the last black candle. It trades up for the rest of the day, closing above where the previous day opened. This action makes apparent to the Bears that the downtrend may be coming to an end. The next day opens higher but trades down for the rest of the day. It cannot close lower than the previous low close of two days prior. The shorts take notice and start covering upon any buying strength over the next couple of days.

GTA -arco

dumbass
30-10-2007, 06:11 PM
the following charts are for usd cad trade

a high risk trade going against a big wave down

in 5th wave

as 3rd has extended i was expecting 5th wave to be similar size to first wave allowing for a 127 overrun of first approx 95.80
expecting bounce of q stick trend line again printing another divergence
butterfly on hourlies

stop loss below 261 of abc correction of previous wave 9480

target 23.6 of impulse wave down 98.50 ish

not at all going according to plan but still expecting a rally

arco
15-11-2007, 03:15 PM
Loonie appears to be in an ABC correction and therefore may at least try to test the Kumo resistance, which could give 300+/- pips after the B leg is complete/confirmed.

Also, depending on the ascent angle it could even carry on further and surf the Kumo looking for a way through.

Kumo angle is quite steep now and begging to be tested by the Great Northern Diver.

arco

arco
16-11-2007, 09:39 AM
Nice start - the bird has flown (north).......

................currently + 105 pips from chart post.

Awaiting the Reuters EOD to see how the land lies.

GTA - arco

arco
28-11-2007, 12:46 PM
Take is approaching 400 pips now from this Ichi trade....with the high reaching 1.000 overnight and the action well into the cloud. (Daily Spot chart)

arco
05-12-2007, 11:54 AM
Loonie appears to be in an ABC correction and therefore may at least try to test the Kumo resistance, which could give 300+/- pips after the B leg is complete/confirmed.

Also, depending on the ascent angle it could even carry on further and surf the Kumo looking for a way through.

Kumo angle is quite steep now and begging to be tested by the Great Northern Diver.

arco




The bird has broken cloud............................

dumbass
07-12-2007, 07:31 PM
possible short

divergence q stick

hit trend line and fib levels jan and aug tops

spinning top

wave 2 retracement may provide good low risk entry sl 1.02

dumbass
07-12-2007, 10:04 PM
enterd at 61.8 retracement to 10140 low risk entry sl 102

peat
17-12-2007, 09:20 PM
just playing a little triangle breakout here.... maybe a 40-50 pip target with stop loss at breakeven already.

http://img143.imageshack.us/img143/4411/usdcad15min17122007ic0.th.jpg (http://img143.imageshack.us/my.php?image=usdcad15min17122007ic0.jpg)

arco
17-12-2007, 10:18 PM
Good Luck Peat.

Our month long Ichi trade has resulted in circa 650 pips so far
- reasonable return for a sit tight and hold strategy against the trend.

Looking at the 4 hour there is a potential BF in the making,
and somthing similar on the daily. So it may be possible to
squeeze a few more pips on this if these pan out.

Perhaps some resistance ahead 1.0360 area.

GTA - arco

peat
17-12-2007, 10:51 PM
ah yes I realise i'm just riding the end of your coat tail there arco, but still just trying to play atechnical setup for a few safe pips. already closed one plus 20 which can mean the other one can breathe a little more.

seconds later....got stopped oh well... it was overall postive if not a lot.

peat
18-12-2007, 07:16 AM
sorry about putting the kiss of death on your trade arco
I shouldve seen that a gartley was waiting there

arco
23-01-2008, 10:12 AM
17 Dec. Looking at the 4 hour there is a potential BF in the making,
and somthing similar on the daily. So it may be possible to
squeeze a few more pips on this if these pan out.
Perhaps some resistance ahead 1.0360 area.

GTA - arco

The Looney has touched the target resistance mentioned
giving a sit and hold profit circa 750 pips to date

arco
02-02-2008, 03:49 PM
I think its time to look at Loonie again for some more
rich pickings. I went short at 1.0129 which gave a max
of 254 pips, but now there appears a reversal afoot which
should give another opportunty to go long for a few,
and then go short for a lot more.

Potential here IMO to ride up to the 1.0129 area again
for circa 150 pips, and then a short down to the
PTZ (lower green box).

Ichi talk.
Tenkan (blue) has crossed Kijun (red) - bearish, and
Kijun should now provide resistance. Chikou is finding
support on the candle plot (circled) and may do so for
a few days. After that it should break through and Loonie
will do some Kumo surfing to eventually poke through the
bottom of the cloud and hopefully give 600 pips +/-

GTA- arco

dumbass
02-02-2008, 04:40 PM
seeing the same

possible usd rally next week to sell into

10150 area has got some fib action , also would take this retracement to origin of 4th wave , which is a typical reversal place for corrections

the 20 sma may help as well

peat
08-02-2008, 01:40 PM
precisely hit Arco's level last night.
No actually high on Oanda was 1.10128, so you were a pip out Arco. Shame ;)

peat
08-02-2008, 07:10 PM
errata - prev post should have been 1.0128

has now formed a little descending triangle and then broke through it on the downside, could be the signal.

arco
08-02-2008, 08:17 PM
Yeah Pete,

sorry about that 1 pip, - the blue pendulum has been
playing up lately..........obviously needs a polish :)

dumbass
22-02-2008, 11:57 AM
this is another pair thats due a big move

looking like will break lower , looking to short around current levels

dumbass
26-02-2008, 09:27 AM
got a start on this one up 150

i reckon now taken out parity theres more to come .97 - .98 then a big run north

arco
12-03-2008, 03:02 PM
Loonie looks interesting for a continuing north move to
the first blue box (creating the potential Blue Gartley).
The target point sits just around the apex of the triangle
circa 1.0086

So, 2 potential ways to trade this pattern IMO.

Long on a confirmed break of the pivot high for around 80+/- pips.

And/or short on a confirmed reversal off the Gartley/apex
for upto 300-450 pips perhaps.

Be cautious that the Blue Gartley does not run on to the
higher dotted blue box to form a BF

GTA - arco

Craig3215
12-03-2008, 03:59 PM
Hey Arco,
I was looking at this one as well but from a head and shoulders perspective but same idea

arco
17-03-2008, 07:41 PM
Loonie looks interesting for a continuing north move to
the first blue box (creating the potential Blue Gartley).
The target point sits just around the apex of the triangle
circa 1.0086

So, 2 potential ways to trade this pattern IMO.

Long on a confirmed break of the pivot high for around 80+/- pips.

And/or short on a confirmed reversal off the Gartley/apex
for upto 300-450 pips perhaps.

Be cautious that the Blue Gartley does not run on to the
higher dotted blue box to form a BF

GTA - arco

A trade in either direction has not kicked in yet.
I still have a pending long, so we'll see how the
action pans out over the next few days.

arco

arco
20-03-2008, 01:58 PM
Patience paid off and my long order kicked in yesterday at .9997.

One profit was taken automatically (as I slept) +50

and the balance was left with no TP, but I took it this morning
at 1.0130 for +133

As I mentioned on the 12th
"Be cautious that the Blue Gartley does not run on to the
higher dotted blue box to form a BF"

arco
20-03-2008, 03:47 PM
Wow...that edit function doesnt give you much time to correct anything

I should have mentioned that the potential short will need re-evaluating once we see where this north moves takes the plot.

dumbass
13-05-2008, 10:10 PM
long from 1.0070 sl 0.9970 target 1.05

arco
14-05-2008, 10:24 PM
I'd personally like to see a bit more confirmation
yet before getting long.

If that genetically modified small blue Gartley on the RH side is for real
then maybe it could go on to form the potential red Gartley I've overlayed.

If that happens we can start thinking more bullish IMO.

rgds - arco

peat
23-05-2008, 01:57 AM
the red gartley on arco's pic has played out now

and 18 hours later its starting to look a little encouraging imo. I've added.

peat
28-05-2008, 07:41 PM
+100 now.
moving stops up to positive territory
hangin in until a clear break of the trendline

dumbass
29-05-2008, 04:19 PM
you been polishing your mojo

peat
29-05-2008, 06:12 PM
heh yeh trying as my logo says

testing my tl now tho...

http://www.biggie.co.nz/interaction/forum/images/smiles/bluenone.gif

peat
30-05-2008, 07:44 AM
that nasty fall at midnite took me out
me = weak player.

peat
03-06-2008, 07:20 AM
but I try try tried again (technically the gartley wasnt disproven)
closed a larger one at +65 and leave the one from 9905 to run. currently 1.007. no kudos posting after the event but you can see the blue triangle buys.
on a daily time frame gartley like this the IPO (initial profit objective) is at the 32% retracement - so thats 1.0092

peat
04-06-2008, 07:16 AM
tp hit at 1.0091 while asleep
:D
this gartley did the bizness perfectly

dumbass
04-06-2008, 10:53 AM
nice peat , mojo fully operational

away for a few weeks watching other waves

hopefully get a few posters out the woodwork

catch ya

peat
04-06-2008, 06:25 PM
sounds awesome, yes Ill be travelling late next week as well, have a good time DA

so the USD isnt giving up just yet, I hear talk of inflation being more of a concern for heliman Ben.
At this stage of the trade Carney talks about protecting profits without preventing gains... so maybe the trendline approach I took earlier is more appropriate now. I'm back in again 1.0113 stop trailing from 1.0080

oh well not to be easy, could 've had a very quick 20 but no, out -17 so it goes...

arco
08-08-2008, 08:54 AM
A few things may be coming together here.

The red Gartley has reached the potential higher target area and theres
a slightly mishapen blue BF (high middle leg) waiting in the wings to complete.

And tonight at 11pm we have Cad employment figures release.

So this little set-up may be worth watching

rgds - arco

arco
13-08-2008, 07:55 AM
>>>>>>>>

Starting to look interesting with a nice black candle overnight just into the
potential BF zone.

arco

dumbass
15-08-2008, 04:51 PM
gartley as we speak on usd cad

really want short this pair but waiting for confirmation

arco
15-08-2008, 09:33 PM
__________________

Hi DB ......................yes starting to slot together as per my recent posts starting 8/8.

Taking a beginning position off the 1 hour bearish engulf...........tight stop/low risk

arco
16-08-2008, 08:19 AM
Loonie Update

Always nice to wake up to a trade that's headed in the right direction.

First order currently +79 pips,

and another one taken slightly lower +29 pips

Did you take a position DB??

Good weekend all - arco

dumbass
16-08-2008, 08:37 AM
morning arco , closed out this morning for 90+

i reckon its got a run to at least 105 but there's a bit of resistance here

hopefully short higher up on monday

im not sure if this is a precursor to a rally in oil , kind of surprised in seeing such a

big move down in usd cad when oil moved lower

hopefully with an oil rally this could really move seriously lower

never applied elliot to nz stocks but nzo is text book

5 waves down 1 = 5 and 5 = 61.8 1-3

shooting star on trendline looks a little ominous

anyway thats enough of that otherwise i'll get in trouble from peat for incorrect use of a thread

have a good weekend , off to the beach up your way

arco
16-08-2008, 09:53 AM
Bring your thermals or a sheepskin jacket.......its a bit nippy out there. :eek:

Looking at the oil chart I posted there seems the possibility of another rise before a fall. Plus the action being on the 200 sma with a daily Hammer looks interesting.

peat
17-08-2008, 11:14 AM
Bring your thermals or a sheepskin jacket.......its a bit nippy out there.

You're on fire Arco. Surely you're keeping warm even in shirtsleeves!

I did actually take out a reasonably large possie for me on Fri night with USD/CAD and also got +90 for a 1/4 of it. Will now move stop to break even and hold. Well done guys.

arco
18-08-2008, 03:07 PM
Update

First position hit target +100

Second position still running +50
............and now trailing the stop

arco

arco
18-08-2008, 05:37 PM
Update

Just closed the second trade +61 pips

.............now a nice red wine beckons, with Mrs A's famous curry chicken.

arco

dumbass
20-08-2008, 11:00 AM
good night , usd bearish sentiment paying dividends longs on eur and gbp for a good few

short usd cad again theres a nice down trendline being respected on h1

im picking oil may be bouncing which should help it lower 70 +

arco
21-08-2008, 09:17 AM
.

There might be a bit more juice in the advance before we see the fall.

The current plot looks a bit like a bull flag, and if that is the case could possibly take the action into the green box area before reversing. Notice the oscillator has also crossed over bullish.

I've penciled in a possible BF (Red).....although it cant be confirmed until it actually prints.

Plan of attack.
Watching for a potential reversal pattern for a move north - which could give circa 150 pips

GTA - arco
.

dumbass
22-08-2008, 08:05 AM
good night , usd bearish sentiment paying dividends longs on eur and gbp for a good few

short usd cad again theres a nice down trendline being respected on h1

im picking oil may be bouncing which should help it lower 70 +

stars aligned , dollar weakness and oil rally

closed out this am

2 posn eur 150+ 200+

gbp 150+

cad 200+

gl see you next week

arco
22-08-2008, 08:15 AM
Morning DB

Yes some very nice moves over night. Didn't have a Loonie position, but Euro, and others headed in the right direction to make a good weeks count.

rgds - arco

peat
24-08-2008, 08:29 PM
Elliot wave view (weekly)

The recovery from the November low is a wave 4, and is approaching key resistance 1.0867. Ideally a top forms at or below that level and is followed by an eventual move to new lows below .9059 in wave 5. However, if 1.0867 is exceeded we would have to entertain the idea that a major low formed last November and that a much larger advance lies ahead