Prairie Downs Metals (PDZ) - Base Metals Minnow [Archive]

Huang Chung

27-04-2007, 02:34 AM

Anyone with in interest in a small base metals speculative play might care to do some research on this one.

Share price has done nothing much over the last year, but the story continues to slowly unfold.

Prairie Downs Project:

The extracts below come from their quarterly activities report, released on Thursday 26 April 2007.

In January, Lycopodium Engineering was engaged to evaluate the economics of an operation processing around 250,000 tpa and producing around 20,000 tonnes per annum of zinc in concentrate. This operation would be based upon the current resource of one million tonnes at a grade of 8.3% zinc, 1.7% lead, and 22 g/t silver augmented by the recently discovered Zed Lode. (this info has been released previously)

Initial results from this year's drilling are very encouraging. Visually identified zinc and lead mineralisation remains strong, and further gossans have been located on the surface to the west of current drilling. Significant copper mineralisation has also been identified for the first time. It may also be relevant that the total sulphide content (including the gangue mineral pyrite) is increasing to the west. (this is new information)

The assays from the first 8 holes in the 2007 drilling program are expected within a fortnight (subject to delays at the lab). I believe that these holes are stepouts on the Zed Lode. A further 10,000 meters of RC drilling is planned for this first program, with diamond and more RC drilling planned for later in the year. There have been delays in the 2007 drilling program due to cyclones, associated rain and mechanical failure.

It's all taking time, but the story continues to build - hopefully the pending assays will reveal decent grade and width.

What interests me is that PDZ's market cap is only some $20m, so the market is not currently ascribing much value to the project.

As I mentioned previously, please do your own detailed research if you are interested.

Huang Chung

09-05-2007, 12:00 AM

Initial assay results for the 2007 drill program were released today.

Best intercept was 22m at 4.3% zinc, 3.5% lead and 19.3 g/t silver, including 2m at 25.2% zinc, 5.9% lead and 31.5 g/t silver and 3m at 5.2% zinc, 9.8% lead and 54.5 g/t silver.

The company expects to be mining in 2009, and has commenced discussions to finance and acquire a ball mill, which is the longest lead time item required for mining.

More assay results are expected in about 2 weeks.

Please read today's release for full details.

FarmerGeorge

09-05-2007, 08:19 AM

Hi HC I've held a few of these for a few months now, yesterday they moved above the price I paid for the first time so I'm happy with the results! I bought them simply because they are cheap as as chips and have quite a bit of potential in the ground. Plus they are run by geologists rather than accountants which I like. I think part of what holds them back is that people don't realise their market cap: lots of miners with a similar cap are 6-7 cents per share. Market seemed to like yesterdays announcement though and I believe there is still some more to come.

Huang Chung

09-05-2007, 10:46 AM

Farmer George - I bought them simply because they are cheap as as chips and have quite a bit of potential in the ground.

You're not wrong FG. The mineralisation appears to be extensive and reasonably shallow. The Zed Lode appears to be open along strike and down dip, and they now seem to think the Zed Lode could be an extention of the Main Lode. If this was the case, the mineralisation would be continuous for over a kilometre and still remain open along strike and at depth.

Management is obviously excited - they have brought the diamond drilling program from later on in the year to now. The drill should be on site this week.

Like you, I'm holding. [8D]

FarmerGeorge

09-05-2007, 01:07 PM

HC Quite right the potential for the two to be part of a single deposit was a consideration also. I think it has been mentioned before but it's nice to have further evidence.

FarmerGeorge

24-05-2007, 05:56 PM

Bought some more of these last week when they fell off a bit. Worth taking a look at the latest drilling results: further indication of a large resource. Market liked it however Market Cap. remains low. My feeling is this is still fairly cheap, 2009 production kick off still on schedule - anyone else still holding?

Huang Chung

24-05-2007, 07:57 PM

Hi FG

Yep, still in there and still accumulating. PDZ is a steadily unfolding story, so I'm settling in for an enjoyable ride. :)

Some darn good intercepts reported today, but this is the bit that I liked most from today's announcement...

...the existing resource of 1 million tonnes is primarily hosted by Main Lode (which is evidently misnamed) and has a grade of 8.4% zinc, 1.7% lead and 22 g/t silver, with an average intersection width of 4.3 metres. Zed Lode is of consistently higher tenor.

The Zed Lode remains open in all directions as well.

I'm now assuming that they have at least 2 million tonnes of ore grading around 10% zinc equivilent.

Fully diluted market cap is just $30m or there abouts.

Hommel

24-05-2007, 08:27 PM

I think Intersuisse sharebrokers had a recommended buy on this one recently.

Hommel

24-05-2007, 08:28 PM

No sorry, it was Hamilton Hindon Greene in N.Z. taht had a write up about PDZ.

FarmerGeorge

25-05-2007, 08:30 AM

HC I agree on the 2m tonnes, not convinced yet on grade. Loved the 'evidently misnamed' quip, had to have a chuckle about that one!

Interesting Hommel, out of curiosity, did they have a price target at all?

FarmerGeorge

29-05-2007, 03:02 PM

Hommel, I saw the HHG report, some interesting reading. I note a PDZ report out today "spectacular drill core", worth a look for holders. SP is hitting some highs right now. Still holding.

Huang Chung

29-05-2007, 08:31 PM

The Zed lode seems to be the best PDZ has uncovered so far.

Info was released today on visually recorded zinc and lead mineralisation from diamond drill hole PDD 180 (i.e not assay results). Estimates of zinc grades are up to 50% zinc over a short interval.

Assay results for RC drill holes PDP 175 to 189 and diamond holes PDD 179, 180, 182 and 190-195 are yet to be released, so there will be a good flow of data to keep the punters happy.

Commentary from MD Mark Hansen seems to imply that the news will continue to be good "There are a number of other core intersections that are as good as or better than PDD 180".

PDZ is shaping up to be a great story.

FarmerGeorge

01-06-2007, 06:18 PM

I have read the report a bit more thoroughly. I'm no geologist so don't take this as gospel but the risk associated with PDZ (the co., not the beta risk of the share) now appears minimal. Even with the latest run up in price the market cap is tiny for this company. The release announcing the economic feasibility of the mine seems to me to be an indicator of further positive news regarding the full resource in the ground. Margin of safety has been reduced but with a full cap. still less than 100m there seems to be plenty of value not being priced in.

Huang Chung do you have a price target for PDZ right now?

Huang Chung

01-06-2007, 11:30 PM

G'day Farmer George

Yes, the Praire Downs project is now looking very solid. The only thing that I see as a possible threat is a collapse in the zinc price. Even then, the relatively shallow nature of the deposit and the very acceptable grades present would provide a reasonable degree of comfort in a weaker metals environment.

If you get the chance, do a comparison of PDZ with Jabiru Metals (JML) ,whose flagship Jaguar Project is of similar grade and size to the Prairie Downs Project, and see what you think. At around $450m, JML's market cap is some 10 times PDZ's.

All things being equal, as PDZ gets more runs on the board, both in relation to exploration and mine development, I can't see why their market cap would not climb to levels similar to JML's current market cap. It will take a bit of time though.

As for where PDZ are placed right now, I think that a share price of around $2 is not unreasonable...... but strictly my personal opinion only.

FarmerGeorge

03-06-2007, 11:14 AM

HC, I looked into Jabiru a few months ago but was chicken and decided to get indirect exposure to it via Consolidated Minerals. Am not currently holding. I hadn't considered JML as a peer of PDZ, will look into it. Thanks for the advice.

FarmerGeorge

04-06-2007, 10:07 PM

Approached $1, backed off, then proceeded to break through fairly healthily. Should be a fascinating week for PDZ the stock, perhaps we will have some further news from PDZ the co?

Huang Chung

04-06-2007, 11:41 PM

Expecting a pause after a stellar run.....at least until the next lot of assays are released [8D].

Huang Chung

13-06-2007, 07:46 PM

More assays released today from 5 holes recently drilled on the Zed Lode.

Widths and grades look good. The assay for hole PDP 180 included 1.3m at 41.3% zinc, as part of a wider intercept.

Quote: Zed Lode remains open along strike and at depth and appears to be increasing in width and tenor at depth.

More RC drilling assays are expected within the week, with diamond drilling assays due towards the end of June. Drilling recommences in July.

Plenty of action, and now a continual flow of good news. [8D]

Huang Chung

14-06-2007, 08:43 PM

Feels like I'm flying solo on this one....[V]

At a guess, 2 million tonnes grading around 8-10% zinc should now be well and truely in the bag. All relatively shallow as well. Massive potential to expand the resource.

Market cap now around $60m...still peanuts if you ask me....topped up with a few more today.

tricha

14-06-2007, 11:37 PM

Huang Chung -"Feels like I'm flying solo on this one...."

Nothing wrong with flying solo on this baby Huang Chung ( reminds me of TFE when they were at 35 cents), where was I when u posted on the 24.04.2007 [?][?] Dam missed an excellent opportunity at a cheap entry, still can't have them all.

Cheers [B)][}:)]

FarmerGeorge

15-06-2007, 12:01 AM

Huang Chung - you're not flying solo mate, I've done a few all nighters lately with assignments. Pleasantly surprised when I checked out the price today. Two bags full! When I first bought in it was with the expectation of a 2m tonne resource - now that estimate looks to be on the low side. Glad I doubled up back mid may.

Huang Chung

15-06-2007, 01:10 AM

FG - Glad to see you're still on board and enjoying the ride.

Tricha - I'm happy to see that you're apparently positive on the stock...you're pretty good at picking winners when it comes to the miners.

I'm personally looking to at least one, and possibly two (or more) 'bags' from here. Far from guaranteed of course, but if they keep getting getting good hits and make progress with developing their mine and plant, it's entirely possible.

Like all things, time will tell.

Cheers H.C.

FarmerGeorge

18-06-2007, 11:21 PM

Certainly enjoying the ride HC! Further gains today.

Huang Chung

18-06-2007, 11:42 PM

More assays just around the corner FG...fingers crossed!

Huang Chung

26-06-2007, 09:49 PM

Two new lodes discovered at Prairie Downs!

From today's release:

'The discovery of a further two lodes is highly encouraging, and suggests that zinc mineralisation may be much more extensive at Prairie Downs than has been previously thought. It is interesting to note that zinc has now been defined over a strike length of 1.1 kilometres; however, the source, or origin, of this mineralisation has yet to be found'.

Further on...'Zed remains open along strike to both the east and west and at depth and Main is open to the west. The two new lodes are also open along strike and at depth'.

The two new, as yet un-named lodes appear to be located above the Zed and Main Lodes. Hole 186, above the Main Lode intersected 3m at 11.6% zinc equivilent (ie zinc and lead) [u]from a depth of just 16m</u>.

To potentially be into high grade ore at such a shallow depth is fantastic, and bodes well for some low cost production....of course, much more drilling will need to be done to prove up a resource in this area.

'Results for seven diamond drill holes are awaited and will be released as they come to hand over the next few weeks'.

'Drilling will recommence in July with the initial focus being the numerous targets in the Zed Lode area'.

Bought more shares over each of the last three days.

Huang Chung

05-07-2007, 08:51 PM

Link to article in the Bulletin magazine.

http://bulletin.ninemsn.com.au/article.aspx?id=276485

FarmerGeorge

05-07-2007, 10:17 PM

Interesting article HC, had to laugh at his description of 'readers who take a longer term view' meaning 6-12 months! Not sure in whose book six months equals long term but oh well.

Huang Chung

05-07-2007, 10:28 PM

Yeah FG...seems like everything resource related is in hyperdrive these days!

Huang Chung

12-07-2007, 09:06 PM

Muted response to another good announcement today. The market is a strange beast at times....

New zinc, and (for the first time) copper lodes discovered beneath the Zed Lode.

From the ASX release:

Results now suggest that stacked lodes will be a regular occurrence at Prairie Downs. This is a substantial economic benefit as development costs to mine the additional lodes would be minimal. It also demonstrates the need to follow up even minor intersections which are often indicative of substantial mineralisation along strike or at depth.

While copper mineralisation is known to occur at Prairie Downs in the vicinity of Main Lode, it tends to be sporadic and relatively low grade. The results in PDD 196 conclusively demonstrate that copper can occur at economic levels. This is an unexpected but welcome development as copper mineralisation could be readily treated in the concentrator currently under construction for Prairie Downs.

Drilling recommenced this week with the initial target being strike and depth extensions to Zed lode.

All good!

Huang Chung

20-07-2007, 12:04 AM

More good hits announced today, but the market has gone to sleep on this one. Slipped under $1 a share a couple of days ago.

Results for three latest holes:

Zed Lode - 5.7m at 12.2% zinc eq from 123.6m
Main Lode - 2.5m at 14% zinc eq from 30.5m AND 1.9m at 15.6% zinc eq from 40.5m
East Lode - 1.2m at 15.8% zinc eq from 191m.

Not overly thick intercepts this time around, but good grade and importantly not at all deep.

Extract from the release: To put these grades into perspective, Prairie Downs mineralisation is considered amenable to underground mining to widths of 1.5 metres and grades down to 3.5% zinc.

The high grade and shallow depth of the deposit should make the Prairie Downs Project hugely profitable. The increased price of lead is an unexpected bonus. :)

Huang Chung

23-07-2007, 08:33 PM

Trading halt.

They have a lot on the go at the moment, including talk of an exploration decline, so a capital raising is a distinct possibility.

FarmerGeorge

24-07-2007, 01:44 PM

Hopefully it will be a nice friendly raising for current holders with some options attached a la VML. Even better would be if it depresses the stock a bit from where it is now so I can pick up a bunch on the cheap.

Huang Chung

24-07-2007, 07:27 PM

Dare I say it Farmer George, but IMHO PDZ is cheap now! [8D]

cupacino

24-07-2007, 10:53 PM

HC - looking forward to expected announcement tomorrow which I tip will be a capital raising. The results coming in just seem to be buiding a good story for PDZ. Should be more results soon I think!.

Huang Chung

25-07-2007, 09:12 PM

$5.5m capital raising announced - institutional and sophisticated investors only...so Farmer George, we lucked out this time, eh.

Anyhow, the capital raising sets PDZ up to continue the job of proving up a significant zinc / lead resource at their namesake project. You'd imagine a revised resource statement can't be too far away (must surely be around 2mt grading around 9 or 10% zinc equivilent by now).

Drilling has recommenced...exploration decline now funded....its all happening!

Cupacino - I take it you're holding PDZ? Welcome to the thread in any case. All comments appreciated.

FarmerGeorge

26-07-2007, 12:13 PM

Agreed, would have been nice to have had an offer to participate but c'est la vie. I guess with the recent pullback in share price they might not have thought there would be enough interest. I will look to pick up a few more at under $1, even with the raising there are not too many shares on issue but I'd like to reduce any dilution effect.

Huang Chung

26-07-2007, 09:39 PM

Huang Chung 25/7/07 - You'd imagine a revised resource statement can't be too far away.

Praire Downs Quarterly 26/7/07 - An updated resource calculation is now in preparation and is expected to be complete in August.

This is what I've been waiting for! Most likely it will be the catalyst that takes PDZ to the next level.

I'd be surprised if we weren't looking at 2 million tonnes plus. That's about $800m in ground value. Market cap is around $60m and capital costs $55m.

Remember, these guys reckon this gound could be good for 10 million tonnes or better.[8D]

cupacino

26-07-2007, 10:36 PM

HC - Sometime ago the MD made a comment that implied the main lode which had the 1m tonnes was incorrectly named and that the ZED lode was the "main lode". You would like to think that the new resource estimate would be over 2m at this point in time. Bring it on!

Huang Chung

27-07-2007, 12:45 AM

Cupacino - 2 million tonnes will take the Prairie Downs Project to a higher tonnage than Jabiru Metals flagship Jaguar Project. Grades will probably slightly favour Jaguar, but Prairie Downs is shallower, and therefore should be cheaper to extract.

Naturally, PDZ has to be discounted because its project is not as far advanced, but PDZ's market cap is around one eigth of Jabiru's ($500m or there abouts). Over time, all things being equal, this discount will surely diminish.

The next month will tell the story....who knows, they might even disclose a resource greater than 2m tonnes. And the story won't stop there, as a lot of the known lodes remain open, and they keep finding more of them!

PDZ is now cashed up and pushing on to prove up an even bigger resource.

$60m market cap.....cheap as chips IMHO.

Scuffer

27-07-2007, 06:15 AM

Wise Owl and Fat Prophets were pushing PDZ as a growth stock.

Crypto Crude

27-07-2007, 11:53 AM

Huang Chung,
you have done very well by picking this stock...
it has exploded since you have tipped it...
Tell us HC, are you a trader?
do you do the shares in your spare time or is this your livelihood?
[8D]
.^sc

FarmerGeorge

27-07-2007, 03:02 PM

Worth noting they get more cash in a few months with old options being exercised also (from memory they are 20c ops?).
Big sell off today and pressure on all week. They may go lower next week but I've just increased my exposure at what I think is a very attractive level right now. Unless there have been MAJOR issues with the reporting, or the zinc price collapses, I expect PDZ should rebound strongly from here in the next month or so with further long term upside from there. Best of luck HC and all other holders.

cupacino

27-07-2007, 06:54 PM

I noted the Uranium comment and looked up WTN. It is a 50/50 JV with PDZ looking for Uranium. The main prospect is in the eastern corner of the PDZ Zinc project. They have had some success (see 3rd quarter report) it appears but also looking at some OS prospects as well. That whole PDZ prospect must have a lot going for it with a truckload of ZINC and also potential Uranium deposit. I thought I had enough of PDZ but after todays fall may need to revisit this next week.

Huang Chung

27-07-2007, 09:32 PM

Personally, I'm not factoring in any uranium at this stage.

Shrewdy.....I'm just a humble wage slave unfortunately, but looking to chuck in the job early if the portfolio performs. I'd like to say I'm an investor (sound kind of regal, doesn't it...), but in reality, probably more disposed to trading. Nearly always run with a mix of top 150 companies and small/micro caps.

I don't have much 'wriggle room' with my margin loan at the moment, otherwise would be looking to add more PDZ at these prices.

FarmerGeorge

30-07-2007, 03:55 PM

Uranium would be a nice development (as would copper at Prairie Downs) but for me this is value on the zinc alone. Stock struggling just now but might be a good opportunity to get in before resource upgrade/announcement?

Huang Chung

30-07-2007, 07:27 PM

Seems like PDZ has both Uranium and copper on its Prairie Downs tenaments, but I think its far too early to be able to tell if either are present in commercial quantities. I have higher hopes for copper at this stage, because it could be extracted with little additional effort and probably processed through the plant without too many dramas as well. Probably just comes down to how much Cu they've got as to whether it's worthwhile or not.

Time will tell.

Very early days for uranium.

Focus for me is definitely zinc and lead at this stage of the game.

FarmerGeorge

02-08-2007, 11:47 PM

Not the easiest thing this week to see a quick loss but I guess I can't get the timing right every time. Now looks cheaper than ever and I note a lot of positive news around zinc recently also. Hopefully everyone has beeen able to hold on (or indeed to sell if your system told you to). Not a good week to be on margins HC, really hope you've been able to stay steady.

Huang Chung

03-08-2007, 12:37 AM

Haven't sold a single PDZ or VML share Farmer George - and I hold massive amounts of each. These puppies are simply too good to let go. ;)

I know its not your cup of tea FG, but I actually increased my stake in IDM today at close to its low point. Looking for IDM to bounce back to between 50c and 52c rather quickly, assuming the market doesn't continue to plummet.

Its been a real tip toe through the minefield this week as far as the margin loan is concerned....[xx(]. Not out of the woods yet either.

cupacino

03-08-2007, 07:24 PM

I have had look at IDM as you have mentioned in earlier posts. They are going into production of the "zircon" in May next year and recent capital raising sees them with 18m in the bank. The stock looks to be very tightly held with only just over 500 shareholders. I can't see any contracts for selling the product yet though. HC are you aware of any offtake agreements signed yet? Also what sort of competition is out there in Zircon production?

Huang Chung

03-08-2007, 09:21 PM

In short Cupacino, IDM will be producing chromite sands (used in metal casting) aa well as other minerals (predominately Garnet, used in water jet cutting). The chromite sand market is extremely tight, with supply from South Africa under a cloud. Additionally, the smooth, round nature of the cromite sand at their Oregon project is a premium product, and especially suited to metal casting.

Huang Chung

17-08-2007, 01:13 AM

Updated resource statement is due by the end of the month. Hopefully, this will give PDZ's savaged share price a bit of a kick along.

There again, in this market, it's just as likely to be totally ignored.

How depressing. :(

FarmerGeorge

17-08-2007, 03:43 PM

Don't feel too lonely HC, I've still got all my share plus a bunch of options (erg) I bought at the beginning of this downturn, on an, ahem, 'dip'. Updated resource will hopefully show this to be cheap compared to what they have in the ground but you're quite right there's a good chance it wil be ignored. Sure it's depressing but hopefully it will offer a chance to more accurately quantify PDZ's worth and buy up with confidence. On the other hand it might show we've been fooling ourselves all along and it's time to bail. ha....ha.

Huang Chung

27-08-2007, 11:15 PM

Trading Halt.

Hopefully related to the resource upgrade they've promised. Assuming this is what the halt is about, I'll be looking for a doubling of the resource to at least 2 million tonnes grading around 10% zinc equivelent.

I'll be disappointed if its anything less, and very pleased if it comes in higher.

FarmerGeorge

29-08-2007, 02:27 PM

Significant upgrade - time for me to start crunching numbers but on first impressions seems very positive.

foodee

29-08-2007, 03:02 PM

Ah, a stroke of luck. Got a few before the trading halt. Watching with interest.

Huang Chung

29-08-2007, 07:41 PM

Foodee, FG

4.9 m/t blew me away, but the cut is only 1%, so I'm not reading too much into that particular number.

2.5 m/t grading 7.3% zinc, 1.8% lead and 17 g/t silver, using a cut of between 4 and 6 percent is something you can take to the bank, and is probably a touch better than I was expecting.

I would expect that the infill drilling they plan to do will identify further high grade areas within the 4.9 m/t resource, that are additional to the 2.5 m/t high grade areas already defined.....lets throw a guestimate out there and say $1b worth of economically minable metal at current prices. Current market cap around $60m, with capital costs to get into production of around the same.

PDZ also said today that drilling has recommenced and that 'initial indications from this drilling are very encouraging with zinc mineralisation continuing to the west and at depth. They are drilling right through to December, so there should be a continuing flow of news.

They also said that the JORC resource released today was sufficient to justify an initial mining operation of 250,000 tonnes per year.......but a bit further on....'This recent success in increasing the resource base at Prairie Downs dramatically improves the likelihood of defining a sufficiently large resource to justify increasing the operational size of the mine to a proposed annual throughput of one million tonnes'.

PDZ always said they believed that this project could be good for 10 m/t, and it seems like they might have half a chance of being proven right.

I'd say that PDZ might have flown right onto the radar screens of some of the big boys out there.

Bought more PDZ today. :)

FarmerGeorge

31-08-2007, 02:17 PM

There is also a presentation online now which I guess they will be going on the road with shortly. This could set up a nice short term play - I experienced a significant run up with BRW when they were out presenting and sold out a decent chunk at something ridiculous like 90c. And as you say HC there will be a good stream of news for the rest of this year.

Outside of that and longer term I'm looking at the rest of the 20km prospective strike and am beginning see where they are getting their million ton throughput figure from. They have not gone particularly deep in their drilling yet either so all strikes are still open at depth, some even getting broader as they decline. And of course there are potential higher grades available as well. Oh and don't forget the mineralization type is said to be (just a farmer, not a geologist, but I have it on sound advice) relatively cheap and simple to extract and process.
This could turn out to be a real monster find.

However, it is important to bear in mind the significant costs PDZ will have to address given the shortage of pretty much everything from equipment to personel in WA resources right now. We could be hit with a couple more capital raisings as this thing plays out through to production in 2009, assuming they are able to keep on schedule which itself may not be possible. Further the zinc price has been pretty sickly lately and might take a while to recover as this whole debt thing runs it course, not forgetting the potential US demand downturn as they get their schtique together.

On sum very positive from me. HC good on you for diving in a bit further, just wishing I still had some cash around! Have to find something to sell now!

Huang Chung

31-08-2007, 07:52 PM

FarmerGeorge - There is also a presentation online now which I guess they will be going on the road with shortly. This could set up a nice short term play

Short term, long term...doesn't matter how you cut it, PDZ is looking fantastic. Today's presentation says 'strong potential for >10 million tonnes'. Crikey, it wasn't that long ago 10 million tonnes was just something at the end of the rainbow.

cupacino

01-09-2007, 04:27 PM

Couple of points in the presentation that are of interest I thought, the first saying that they have 20klms of strike identifed but only so far have been over 1.4klms. Also thought the comment that the Gabbro load is getting thicker at depth suggests that this could also be a good Lode. Bigger than Zed? I 'd like to see that!

Huang Chung

01-09-2007, 06:47 PM

Hey Cupacino. From Friday's presentation, PDZ say that evidence along strike includes:

Gossans
Soil anomalies
Drill resultsStrong potential for >10 million tonnes.

Obviously, the mineralised horizon extends beyond the already defined 1.4km strike length. Lots of targets to drill by the sound of things. The upside here of course is defining more shallow lodes along strike.

The Garbro Lode looks to be a different kind of beast, that plunges downwards, whereas the other lodes seem to run parellel to the surface. The fact that its getting thicker with depth makes this lode a very tantilising proposition. Looking forward to a few deep drill holes to see what might be lurking down there. :)

Huang Chung

03-09-2007, 08:57 PM

PDZ shareprice steadily rising on better volumes since last week's resource upgrade. Still some 30c shy of the highs it reached prior to the recent market fallout.

FarmerGeorge

04-09-2007, 03:25 PM

I hate to make price predictions, and I recognise the foolishness in claiming to know better than the market but even on a fairly conservative view of zinc prices, plus a pessimistic view of production cost overruns and AUD/USD cross I see another 30c to 40c in PDZ. On a more optimistic view there could be a lot more. Has had a good few days which would normally put me off buying but couldn't resist. Now in fairly significantly so hoping the market continues to agree. Thanks for continuing the info HC I think and hope PDZ will reward you for your patience and analysis.

samw523

05-09-2007, 06:26 PM

hey guys, can anyone tell me when the next round of drilllling results will be released. here's a link to the latest article in the bulletin:

http://bulletin.ninemsn.com.au/article.aspx?id=292676

Huang Chung

05-09-2007, 08:29 PM

Did any of you see the following buried in a generally unrelated announcement released by PDZ late yesterday afternoon.......

.....the Board of Prairie has been approached by an Australian listed company which has evinced interest in exploring possibilities for a takeover of / merger with the Company. A preliminary discussion has occurred between certain members of the respective boards. Further discussions are anticipated. These discussions have been very preliminary and no firm proposal is yet in contemplation. Specifically, there has been no discussion on pricing of any potential proposal.

Obviously, it's early days, but the relatively tame response by the market today suggests that this announcement was missed by most.....not surprising!

Personally, any offer would need to be damn good for me to accept.

Sam...I don't have any firm dates. On 29 August PDZ said...Drilling recommenced at Prairie Downs in July......Initial indications from this drilling are very encouraging with zinc mineralisation continuing to the west and at depth. The first assay results should be available shortly. I guess you might be talking any day to a couple of weeks.

cupacino

05-09-2007, 09:28 PM

HC - I also spotted this and thought that this is a wierd sort of way to announce discussions with another company to the market. Wouldn't you want to make it a " big" announcement to get the price running? From the headline you would normally just skip over it.

foodee

05-09-2007, 09:42 PM

HC, thanks

Missed that bit by just skipping over the announcement.
Looks like other cos are interested and for the board to bring it up
there must be some substance.

Thus more intrigue.

cheers

Huang Chung

05-09-2007, 09:43 PM

Looks like PDZ are keeping everything fairly low key, which is probably the right thing to do if discussions are preliminary, as they have stated. Nothing might eventuate after all.

Nice though to have confirmation that someone sees value in PDZ's assets. If things progress, I just hope that PDZ management will be able to extract a good deal for shareholders.

Huang Chung

13-09-2007, 08:24 PM

More drill results out today.

A couple of important developments.....

1. High grade mineralisation in the Zed Lode has now been revealed down to 246m.

2. Potential boost for overall tonnage, as one hole into the Zed Lode intercepted 22 metres at 4.2% zinc equivalent.

3. Possibility that PDZ have uncovered a new lode system to the west of the Zed Lode, or, alternatively, a continuation of the Zed Lode.

Further assays are expected periodically over the next two months.

FarmerGeorge

02-10-2007, 03:31 PM

Further good results for PDZ and on a good day for the market as well means nice gains all around for holders. HC I think I remember you loading up during the recent downturn I imagine you're sitting pretty just now. Options looking decidedly healthy today also. Further results to come and eventual resource upgrade looking more and more likely. Hope there's still lots of holders out there.

cupacino

02-10-2007, 08:44 PM

The grades on this last release show some confidence for the management to target 12% grades when they start production. This just gets better and better as more results come out. Still no word on the discussions they are having re "merger". I am holding this one for awhile yet.

Huang Chung

02-10-2007, 09:05 PM

Farmer George - Hope there's still lots of holders out there.

I don't know what it is FG, but PDZ doesn't seem to generate much interest in our little online community. But, everyone has to make their own choices I guess.

Today's release gives us some terrific grades in the latest assays, including two intercepts of 23.7% and 22.4% zinc, plus some lead and silver for good measure. As management pointed out, the latest drill results will lift both tonnage and grade.

Just remember, these guys are gunning to ramp up production to 1 million TPA, from an initial 250,000 TPA! They seem to have a pretty good understanding of the geology now, and churn out great drill results time and time again. JORC resource is now somewhere between 2.5 and 4.9 MT (depending on what cut-off you use) and growing. 12 months ago it was only 1 MT.

A paltry number of shares on issue, and a fully dilluted market cap of just $80m. Like you Cupacino, I'll be holding this one for a while yet as well.

shasta

03-10-2007, 11:27 PM

HC

Good write up on Minesite - you read that article?

Huang Chung

03-10-2007, 11:36 PM

No Shasta, I haven't seen it....do you have a link by any chance?

Huang Chung

04-10-2007, 08:55 PM

More info out today.

Drilling is continuing at Prairie Downs. Results to date indicate that the current resource of 4.9 million tonnes is only limited by drilling and, as drilling is expected to continue for the rest of the year and recommence early in 2008, it is expected to increase in both tonnage and grade as we head towards production. The target is 10 million tonnes.

Bankable Feasibility Study has commenced. Current guidance suggests production starting at 300,000 TPA ramping up to 1.2m TPA. These tonnage figures are higher than the 250,000 TPA / 1m TPA advised to the market as recently as September. Target tonnage (10m) is expected to grade 8-10% zinc equivelent.

Whilst 10 million tonnes ia only a 'target' figure, management must have a fair degree of confidence that it will be achieveable since they've elected to go public with the figure.

shasta

04-10-2007, 09:11 PM

cupacino

11-10-2007, 05:37 PM

Southren Cross equities have put out research on PDZ with a $1.60 price target. PDZ home page has the link for the research.

Huang Chung

11-10-2007, 08:43 PM

Anyone with an interest in this emerging base metals producer SHOULD read the Southern Cross Equities research just posted on the Praire Downs Metals website....

www.prairiedownsmetals.com.au (http://www.prairiedownsmetals.com.au)

Huang Chung

15-10-2007, 08:52 PM

Not unexpectedly, some positive share price action and healthy volume.

FarmerGeorge

16-10-2007, 01:56 PM

Thanks for the heads up guys - I've noticed things moving along nicely for PDZ share price, patience will hopefully continue to be rewarded. Just about to read report now - those options are starting to look very healthy.

Huang Chung

19-10-2007, 09:22 PM

Capital Investment Partners Ltd (CIP) has been appointed as a corporate advisor to PDZ.

Of note, CIP has for some time been working with Sundance Resources, including advising it in regards to SDL's merger with Gindalbie Metals........ I'm sure that most Sundance shareholders would be pretty happy the way things have been going!

Fees include the issue of 1m options exercisable at $1.25 and another million exercisable at $1.50, both before 31 December 2008. CIP would want be wanting the PDZ share price to be well north of $1.50 to make exercising the second million options worth while.

The market liked the news, pushing PDZ up nearly 10% for the day.

Still enjoying the ride. :)

FarmerGeorge

19-10-2007, 11:25 PM

Fascinating developments HC - do you know what a the role of a corporate advisor really is? It seems to be a positive thing but I'm not sure I completely understand it. Bigger volume and large bids coming in for PDZ lately which is another positive sign as well.

FarmerGeorge

23-10-2007, 05:35 PM

Further thinking that taking these guys on in this capacity means extra couple of million flowing into PDZ's coffers next year, in addition to what is coming from current listed options and also the financing package they recently sorted out. The picture of how this company will actually be turned into a profitable miner (as opposed to an explorer/developer) is beginning to take shape, that is if they're not taken out at some point of course.

Good rise on solid volume again today, options now moved up over $1.10.

Scuffer

23-10-2007, 07:06 PM

I was told to buy into this mob and didn't Wise owl were singing their praises I think they were in the mid fifties at the time so well done FG I think ya mate HC liked them as well.

Huang Chung

24-10-2007, 02:54 AM

FarmerGeorge - The picture of how this company will actually be turned into a profitable miner (as opposed to an explorer/developer) is beginning to take shape, that is if they're not taken out at some point of course.

Couldn't agree more FG.

PDZ is now a three bagger since I first posted on it. BUT, whilst the share price might have trebled, the likely resource base has increased somewhere between 5 and 10 times (depending on how you look at it), and, importantly, the company has gone from hopeful producer to an almost certain producer.

My initial medium term target price, based on imperfect and incomplete information, is somewhere between $2.00 and $2.40. Southern Cross Equities have an initial target of $1.60 based on a 10m tonne resource, but they indicate the value should rise as the company makes progress towards production. (I am now getting quite comfortable with a 10 million tonne resource, based on managements positive comments). Also factor in the share price required to give CIP a decent return on the options deal they have struck with PDZ. If I'm interpreting things correctly, the second tranche of 1 million options won't even be in the money until the share price is $1.50. I don't know what would be the sort of return they'd be after on their total package of 2 million options...if it was $1m, by my calculations the share price would need to be around $1.90...$2m would equate to a share price of around $2.40. I'm sure CIP have gone into this arrangement with their eyes wide open, with a reasonable expectation of profiting from this options package.

And as I have mentioned previously, just look at the market cap of Jabiru if you want some sort of yardstick for PDZ as they head towards production. Whilst the grade is lower, PDZ is now blitzing JML as far as tonnage goes....and PDZ's deposit isn't as deep. At a share price of $2, PDZ's fully dilluted market cap would still only be around $140m.

Naturally, there are huge risks in all of this...PDZ might not get to 10 million tonnes, the zinc price could tumble etc etc, but that's the name of the game.

I'd be interested in hearing your comments FG.

FarmerGeorge

24-10-2007, 03:27 PM

PDZ (along with ANG) were one of my holdings when I first joined the wee community we have here but I completely cede any credit for bringing it to the forum - Huang Chung should get quite a few thank you's from anyone who jumped on board and has done well :)

My valuation method is pretty conservative (I'm a farmer after all) and my investment philosophy is that stolid old 'buy your dollars for fity cents' cliche. Here are the assumptions:

Todays zinc/lead prices (179000ton zinc, 45000ton Lead)
Todays USD/AUD exchange rate
No consideration of copper, gold or any other possible resource
Production costs of around 50c per pound
Zero Cash balance
Shares fully diluted, including recent deal (74900000)
Zero Hedging

This gives an idea of the kind of resource sitting in the ground in money terms. Given the time until production I've decided the company should be valued at 20% of this (if we were further from production I'd use 10%)

To come up with the very conservative valuation of $1.44 per share.
So I probably won't be selling up before then.

What could change?

Price of zinc/lead (I say this is a downside risk)
USD Exchange (also downside risk as commodity prices are determined in USD and I see AUD as strengthening)
Further resource upgrade (huge upside potential, my estimates are at the low end of the current publicised scale and do not include anything beyond lead/zinc)
Production costs (could go either way: demand is high for equipment but also my estimate could be ridiculously high remember it is a very easy type of mine to operate, not underground, just dig it up and truck it out. But I'm no geologist.)
Plus that zero cash balance is wrong they probably do have some cash plus will get some with exercise of options.
This is just the Prairie Downs project, there are others PDZ own. (small upside potential)
Then there are all the other things like problems in the mine development process, labour issues, earthquakes, global terrorists bombing Aussie mines, ummm, yeah general business risks.

Sorrry this is such a long post. Anyway as far as I'm concerned I could buy the whole company tomorrow morning and sell it for about $1.55 a share by the afternoon without even trying. Anything above that level stops being pessimistic and starts considering resource upgrades etc. Because markets generally overblow things I only consider selling a decent chunk at 20% above my own valuation. So that would be at

$1.72

Things will change for better or worse and that valuation could change and of course it's just the opinion of a farmer from Canterbury, not of a qualified person or even geologist. But there is my current logic and position, for what it's worth.

Huang Chung

29-10-2007, 07:52 PM

Extracts from the quarterly report released today.....

"The next resource update is expected in November 2007. This update is expected to result in an incease in tonnes and also in grade".

"Laboratory delays have resulted in a large backlog of samples awaiting assay. The next results are expected by the beginning of November".

The catalysts for some more positive share price moves are in place. :)

All things being equal, I will be very surprised if PDZ does not kick on nicely in the next few weeks.

Huang Chung

15-11-2007, 11:35 PM

Possibly a significant release today......

As well as more good drill results for the Main, Zed, East and Gabbro Lodes, PDZ announced a 'new lead discovery' (currently called Costean 7) 3.2 km from the Main Lode. They are stressing that caution needs to be applied to the results at this early stage.

Virtually no zinc in the Costean 7 assays released today, but one sample returned 16.6% lead!....If they are onto a new deposit, it might prove to be a nice balance to the mineralisation in the Main, Zed, East and Gabbro Lodes which are largely skewed towards zinc.

Encouraging so far....will be interesting to see if C7 amounts to a significant discovery or not.

Release attached below:

http://stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=PDZ&E=ASX&N=385203

Huang Chung

29-11-2007, 06:03 PM

Just reading an article on PDZ in the November Resource Stocks magazine...the following excerpt caught my eye....I'd heard this story before, but this was the first time I'd seen it in print.

A major investor in the company is Sempra Metals and Concentrates, a subsidiary of of Sempra Energy, a US fortune 500 company with 20 million customers for gas and electricity in California.

"They are investors, there is no off-take agreement, which is rare for them," Hansen (PDZ's Managing Director) said.

"Normally Sempra will invest development finance in return for the metal. In this case they haven't done that simply because they like the project.

"The reason Sempra became a shareholder is that their representative saw the drill core when he visited our office. He looked at it and knew straight away that it was part of a large system just be looking at it.

"And he was right."

cupacino

30-11-2007, 05:47 PM

Didn't realise that Sempra were that huge. It is certainly a good sign and you wonder how big the system they have there is?
The price holding up pretty well at present shows that a lot of interest is buiding in this stock.

Huang Chung

05-12-2007, 08:48 PM

ASX release today indicated that the next resource upgrade is due next week. Expect an increase in both tonnage AND grade. A further resouce upgrade is planned for the first quarter next year. (oh, of course, more positive drill results were released today as well)

At this stage, I'd like to see a resource of 7 million tonnes announced, up from the current 4.9 mt, but I guess I shouldn't be too greedy.

Anyhow, it won't be long until we find out.

FarmerGeorge

05-12-2007, 10:18 PM

These guys have a real resource on their hands. It's hard not to get greedy when the results keep coming out so positively. I'm weighing up whether to pick up a few more options this week or not. hard decision as I've already got about 25% of my funds in either PDZ or PDZO. Good to see you keeping this thread alive HC I've been a bit preoccupied with ANG in the past month or so.

Huang Chung

05-12-2007, 10:37 PM

Good to see you keeping this thread alive HC I've been a bit preoccupied with ANG in the past month or so.

It's a pleaseure FG....nice to know there are at least a couple of us following the PDZ story. Would have been good if a few more had joined us for the ride, but it wasn't to be.

FG...check out how shallow the latest intercepts are....nothing deeper than 206m! With indications that the resource continues at depth, I can't wait until they get hold of a rig that can start putting some deep holes down. :)

FarmerGeorge

07-12-2007, 02:26 PM

Well I'm not sure about talking about it in the past tense mate, the ride so far has indeed been rewarding but I see more to come, and I think you do to - so probably still some time to get in for the next resource estimate/upgrade if anyone has some spare funds for a little speculation. I'm not convinced even the current resource is fully priced in and potentially the generally unhappy mood around zinc might be weighing on the SP a bit much.

Huang Chung

07-12-2007, 09:24 PM

Well I'm not sure about talking about it in the past tense mate, the ride so far has indeed been rewarding but I see more to come.

Ah, sorry FG, past tense was not intended....I actually picked up another small parcel of PDZ yesterday, so yes, I definitely think the PDZ share price will continue to work its way up, allbeit under the cloud of a less than stellar zinc price.

Looking forward to next week for confirmation of a steadily growing resource.....7 million tonnes is my guess. :rolleyes:

I noted that you said PDZ is about 25% of your portfolio........it's 50% of mine.....real sink or swim stuff. :eek:

FarmerGeorge

08-12-2007, 04:04 PM

It's true that for one stock to take up so much of your capital is a risk. The idea of 'focus' investing where you don't spread yourself too thinly is part of my overall strategy and I imagine you might be similar. Good luck!
PDZ, or the options are currently the biggest holdings but the rest is spread around only a few others. The whole portfolio swings up and down by 10% or so fairly regularly and from Jan 1, 07 I've been up by 120% and down by 50% at various points over the course of the year. It's high volatility but I'm still young enough to live with major ups and downs and not panic. I haven't bought any more PDZ recently but I do anticipate a good upwing on a new resource announcement. Plenty more ups and downs to come!

Taijon

14-12-2007, 02:39 AM

Today's announcement is a bit disappointing but it didn't shake out many sellers. Maybe tomorrow will provide an opportunity to top up.

FarmerGeorge

14-12-2007, 02:34 PM

Interesting development. A top up may indeed be in order.

Huang Chung

16-12-2007, 10:15 PM

Back on air after my computer shat itself last week. :mad:

Indeed, a disappointing finish to the year Taijon....I was really looking forward to a pre-Christmas resource upgrade. Guess we'll just have to be patient.

PDZ started to look a bit friendless late last week. I actually took a few off the table, fearing another price meltdown....on reflection, most likely an over-reaction on my part. However, still holding tonnes of PDZ, and they, along with VML remain my main holdings.

Redeployed the proceeds into RCR Tomlinson.....in the hope that they can emulate the performance of Austin Engineering.

Huang Chung

17-01-2008, 09:58 PM

PDZ is probably faring better than some of the more established zinc plays at the moment, such as ZFX and PEM. Currently trading in the 84c - 91c range, which isn't too bad all things considered. In August, it got smashed into the 50s.

And the PDZ story is about to get much better.....the final drill assays for the 2007 campaign were released today and would have to be among the best results so far. Zinc equivalent grade in a lot of the holes is about double the grade of their current resource. They are also gaining new insights into the lode positions, and the news looks increasingly favourable for a reduction in expected mining costs.

Resource update is now expected to be completed by mid-February.

http://stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=PDZ&E=ASX&N=392586

tricha

17-01-2008, 11:21 PM

Zinc price still under sliding pressures

Spurred by overall rebound of the metals market and no adjustment to the tariffs on export of high-grade zinc, zinc (http://metalsplace.com/news/?s=22) price in China rebounded in late December and early January, but analysts hold that the price movement may resume the declining trend again under multiple unfavorable factors.
According to monitoring by the Chinese Ministry of Commerce, the average spot price of No.1 zinc (http://metalsplace.com/news/?s=22) in China was about 19,115 yuan per ton in the later half of December, up 1.9 percent over that in the first half of the month. The rebound was also reflected in zinc (http://metalsplace.com/news/?s=22) futures traded on the Shanghai Futures Exchange.
Zinc (http://metalsplace.com/news/?s=22) futures price on the Shanghai Futures Exchange plunged by more than 30 percent from mid-October to the first half of December.
Despite the recent rebound, zinc (http://metalsplace.com/news/?s=22) price still faces sliding pressures, analysts say.
On the supply side, global zinc (http://metalsplace.com/news/?s=22) supply tends to be excessive after quick capacity expansion. Domestically, the zinc (http://metalsplace.com/news/?s=22) output is keeping fast growth, up 18.9 percent year on year to reach 3.395 million tons in the first 11 months of 2007. As new capacities under construction are yet to be released, fast growth of domestic zinc (http://metalsplace.com/news/?s=22) production is still expected in 2008.
On the demand side, the growth of domestic demand for metals is beginning to slow down. Official data show that the growth rate in value added of the industry declined for the second consecutive month in November. Under macroeconomic control, the industrial growth may slow down further in 2008, which in turn will lead (http://metalsplace.com/news/?s=23) to slowdown of metals demand.
Meanwhile, zinc (http://metalsplace.com/news/?s=22) inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was about 54,000 tons by Jan. 4, the highest level since launch of the zinc (http://metalsplace.com/news/?s=22) futures contracts on the exchange. – China Mining
http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/images/statusicon/user_online.gif http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/images/buttons/reputation.gif (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/reputation.php?p=181278) http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/images/buttons/report.gif (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/report.php?p=181278) http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/images/misc/progress.gif

Huang Chung

17-01-2008, 11:36 PM

FarmerGeorge

18-01-2008, 07:32 AM

It is, of course, worth considering the impact of a zinc price decline but I'm dubious about a sustainable sub-95c/lb Zn price for exactly the reason you point out HC. There is also a large demand still for iron ore for steel. That steel will have to be galvanised by something and I'm inclined to be less pessimistic about zinc overall, and I believe PDZ will be a low cost producer going forward.
I thought PDZ was undervalued at $1.30 and at current levels (90c or so?) I think it will look like a steal once the estimate arrives in February. Obviously it would be nice to still be sitting with it at around $1.35 as it was but I'm ok with a bit of a wait. My feeling is that at current market cap. this should be more of a value story than one tied to the zinc price. Haven't sold yet, maybe I'm just deluded.

FarmerGeorge

23-01-2008, 01:08 PM

I may well be maintaining my delusion here but I picked up another chunk of the options yesterday and this morning. Current market cap vs value of current resource seems a bit ridiculous, plus I am optimistic about further upgrades to the resource in the next month or so. Time, of course, will tell on this one but, for better or worse, I've pretty much tied my portfolio's performance in '08 to Prairie Downs.
Tricha, HC, anyone still around?

Huang Chung

24-01-2008, 12:02 AM

Hi Farmer George.

Well done on picking up some cheap stock. :)

Nice gain today on the heads, but on tiny volume...just like the sell down.

I was not in a position to pick up more stock this time around unfortunately.

Huang Chung

30-01-2008, 08:48 PM

Nice line in PDZ's quarterly released today....

'The updated resource is due in mid-February. Current indications are that grade will be extremely competitive'. :)

Only 52 million shares and 21 million options..... ;)

FarmerGeorge

07-02-2008, 01:03 PM

Latest report is also very encouraging. I am thinking we might be seeing some good news come February. Would be a nice change in pace from the last few weeks!

Huang Chung

07-02-2008, 09:07 PM

Agree FG, PDZ is looking good.

Did you notice the little headframe and shaft drawn in on the schematic cross section? Don't want to read too much into it at this stage, but I'd like to think that management are becoming more confident that this deposit will extend to some depth.

Next week should give us the revised resource statement. I'd be one very happy chappie if we got a 10/10 result (10 million tonnes grading 10% zinc eq), as the global resource, but think that is too big an ask at this stage. I'm fairly confident that the high grade subset should will in at better than 10% zn eq, but the 'x' factor will likely be the tonnage.

Exciting times ahead.:)

FarmerGeorge

13-02-2008, 04:01 PM

PDZ announcement today nothing to set the world on fire. Resource worth about AUD$1b, PDZ Market Cap about 47m so I'll maintain that they're under valued but it would have been nice to see a bigger resource. The 'high grade' zone is the major positive, with a good increase in grade, and a small increase in tonnage but overall I was expecting a bit more. I hope all that talk of 'tonnage expected to increase substantially' is more than just wishful thinking!

njat

14-02-2008, 03:58 PM

I am new to this thread but have been following it for a long time and have been reassured by the opptomism as it mirrored my own about PDZ and hence the large holding I have in them. I fell somewhat dispapointed by this announcment as the indication seemed to be a much bigger resource would be announced. I sold half my holding when they were trading at $1.33 but bought in again when they slumped to mid sixties, but am wondering now if that was a good idea and if they are all hype with not much substance, but maybe thats a bit harsh?

Huang Chung

14-02-2008, 06:16 PM

Njat, FG. I was also a bit deflated by the tonnage announced yesterday. Their presentation still points to 10 million tonnes or greater....lets hope this is based more on sound geological interpretation rather than blind hope.

Interestingly, only a small sell down yesterday, and a bit of a bounce back today. Nobody seems to be getting to hot and sweaty about the results.

Awaiting further developments with interest.

FarmerGeorge

15-02-2008, 08:48 AM

All in all I think the volumes ever since it dropped under a dollar have been pretty low. I don't think the current price movements (like a lot of shares over the past few weeks) are being driven by anything other than market jitters and concerns over the US recession. My opinion is that PDZ have the financing in place to develop and any US recession which might occur will be over by the time they are producing. Of course I hold a lot so of course I'm biased towards PDZ. I'm also of the opinion that zinc won't stay below $1/lb for an extended period, which I know some people disagree with.
My only concern is this continuing chatter (but only chatter) about a 10mt resource, and absolutely concur with HC: Blind hope is not a legitimate investment rationale! They haven't been able to quantify this so I can only guess that they're thinking it is under the current resource and deep?

Huang Chung

16-02-2008, 08:59 PM

After reflecting on the resource statement and looking over past announcements, I'm satisfied that the stock is definitely worth holding, and will continue to do so. I think I fell into the trap of thinking that the large resource increase last time would be repeated this time. On reflection, it probably was a pretty silly thing to assume in this game.

Whilst we all seem to have focused on the tonnage, we have kind of overlooked the impressive grades they have achieved for what will become the initial feedstock for the plant....something around 17% zinc eq, give or take.

It also is worth remembering that Hansen has previously advised that they would be able to economically mine right down to 1.5m at 3.5% zn. The high grade tonnage is >20% metal, or for example, 5m at 4% zn. In other words, the high grade zone, especially at such shallow depths, should be very high margin production. Importantly, many parts of the non-high grade resource will also be hugely profitable, say for arguments sake, those areas between 15% and 20% metal.

If you go over some of the key releases from 2006 onwards, you can see how the picture has slowly but surely built from less than 1 million tonnes to close to 5 million tonnes. We still have a lot of exploring to do around the three main lodes (particularly at depth), and C7 looks to be interesting as well, not to mention the other 20km or so of strike.

I can't see it falling much below its current price, and look for a better price when these markets turn and new developments are announced.

Huang Chung

19-02-2008, 08:19 PM

Boy, if only I had some spare $$$$.

Closed at 56.5c, that's an undiluted market cap of less than $30m. By my reckoning, that's probably a prospective p/e of less than 1, based on their planned initial production of around 300,000 tpa.

njat

20-02-2008, 12:24 PM

FarmerGeorge

20-02-2008, 04:30 PM

My opinion is biased given my large position in PDZ, and my beliefs about the price of zinc.

In my opinion they are fantastic buying at these levels and I have increased my holdings in the past three weeks. I have no opinion on 'the current climate', except that I'm not expecting the US to go into a depression. For PDZ to get to $1.50 will require some combination of an increase in zinc price, a decent resource upgrade, and a relatively trouble free road to production. I'm not counting on a takeover but it might make sense if the logistics line up for some other company.

Huang Chung

20-02-2008, 11:03 PM

I realise that these are all million dollars questions but i would interested in anybodies personal opinion on the following:

Is PDZ good buying ($0.565) given the current climate?

I have realised i will have to hold PDZ for longer than anticipated but my original exit point was $1.50, do people think PDZ will reach a $1.50, is that realistic?

Sometime ago there was rumors of a take over, has anyone heard anything about this?

any opinions greatly appreciated

1. Is PDZ good buying at these levels? For me, the answer is most definitely 'yes', but everyone is different.....this is the speculative end of the market after all.

2. Is a $1.50 price target realistic? No, not in this market. Sentiment across the market will have to improve markedly first. As the combination of improving market sentiment and resource expansion kicks in, I would expect to see a share price significantly higher than $1.50.

3. Takeover? I doubt if you will hear any more about this. But, you never know what's around the corner, do you?

For me, PDZ is currently very cheap, but everything from blue chips to speccies has been belted, so its all relative. I'm not too concerned....the zinc price, whilst much lower than in the recent past, is holding fairly well, and sentiment will eventually turn. Meanwhile, PDZ will quietly go about its business of finding more lead and zinc....;)

Njat...have you done a comparison with Jabiru Metals (JML) by any chance? It might give you some idea of the potential I see for PDZ.

njat

26-02-2008, 10:36 AM

Huang Chung

26-02-2008, 09:45 PM

Interesting comparison with JML, considering they have over 400 million shares on offer the potential still looks bright for PDz at some stage with their tiny 50 odd million shares on offer. So here hoping for some trouble free times ahead. In the mean time I will keep accumulating when fiances allow, although my holdings in underperforming CBH and AAR don't help.

Njat, I hope you also noted the size and quality of JMLs resource and compared it to PDZ. I think you'll agree that PDZ stacks up quite favourably.

Also, remember that PDZ have only really drilled down to 250m or there abouts.....JMLs Jabiru deposit STARTS around that level. Now that PDZ's exploration team know where the high grade shoots are, they will target them down to 500m this year.

Patience is required, but if things go right, the reward could be large.

FarmerGeorge

27-02-2008, 08:10 AM

Agreed. The depths of current resources are good from potential resource upgrade perspective but just as importantly from the perspective of the economics of production.

Huang Chung

04-03-2008, 08:39 PM

Latest company update taken from PDZ's website.

Worth looking at page 14 which highlights the leads they have on the permit, including a whole bunch about 2km north west of the 3 lodes (Main, Zed and Gabbro - 4.7 mt to date).

http://www.prairiedownsmetals.com.au/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=102&Itemid=26

Huang Chung

05-03-2008, 11:21 PM

As at 1 March, in-situ value of PDZ's 4.7 million tonne global resource was US $1.14 billion dollars.

PDZ market cap - $26 million undilluted, or $35 million fully dilluted.

$4.9 million in the bank.

This is a near surface base metals resource, which just continues to grow.
Project is in Australia, so soverign risk is as low as you can get.

An utterly outstanding buy at 49c, IMHO.

http://stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=PDZ&E=ASX&N=397965

Huang Chung

07-03-2008, 04:59 PM

Nice to see a small rise in the share price on reasonable volume, on what can only be considered a generally sh1tty day.

Obviously, there is a degree of execution risk in getting this mine up and running, but the flip side is that, unlike some base metals projects, this project's best years will be ahead of it...:)

njat

12-03-2008, 09:29 AM

Managed to get as many shares as I could as $0.49 and $0.50 after selling my entire CBH holding, absolute bargain...I hope. Some slight positive share movement since then.

FarmerGeorge

12-03-2008, 09:32 AM

Hi HC, just so you don't think you're the only one here, I haven't sold anything, all looking underwater (even the options I bought at what I thoght were ridiculously cheap levels) excpet some of the shares I bought back last year at about these levels. I've pretty much committed to PDZ so unless some company specific bad news comes out I'm just sitting around waiting for the market to turn back to fundamentals. Over a $Bn in resources, huge upside potential, and a market cap not much more than some farms.
You point out the operational risks correctly, and there remains, of course, the risk of zinc price collapse. But I'll take a billion in ground for under 60m all day long.

Huang Chung

19-03-2008, 10:45 PM

Video Presentation off the PDZ website.....speaker is Managing Director Mark Hansen.

http://www.prairiedownsmetals.com.au/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=105&Itemid=26

FarmerGeorge

31-03-2008, 01:22 PM

Interesting look at the MD, not the most charismatic of characters is he!?

PDZ Shares outstanding: 52.5m
Market Cap. (@40c): $21m
Plus $5m in cash
(plus another 20.5m Options or so)

First 5 Yrs. Production forecast (commence late 09): 300,000t @ 12.3% zinc
36,900 tonnes zinc annually
Current Zinc spot USD$1.03 per lb from kitco (2200lbs in a tonne) : $83,615,400
Convert to AUD @ 0.915 from xe.com : $91,382,950

Now I understand that the first years production might be a bit less than that, and I also accept that the zinc price may come down a touch for a time (although I don't think it can stay under $1 for too long as marginal producers get burned off). I'm just trying to find out if someone can point out something crucial that I may have missed which explains the massive disparity between market cap and what the company seems to be worth. Anyone?

njat

01-04-2008, 01:09 PM

I agree I had this same debate with my stock broker, his response was "the tide is just on on this stock, but it will come back in". I think not many people know about PDZ because there are so many many small miners listed on the asx and it seems that on top of that alot of people who have money in the stock market really know nothing about what they are investing in and are basically a bunch of sheep, selling when market sentiment is negative and buying when it is positive and the fundementals don't even enter into it. All of which I am sure you know yourself. I keep buying when PDZ is low because I think in a year or two its going to rocket again, but who knows I may be delued as well, but if I had more money at the moment I would be buying evry PDZ share i could. I also notice there is consitently a large institutional buyer in the market, what the implications of that is i don't know.

Huang Chung

01-04-2008, 08:34 PM

George, Njat,

PDZ is a little boat being tossed around in some very wild seas at the moment.

In my mind, I had factored in a 'worst case' price of 40c.....not that I really thought they would get that low. To see them close today at 37c just seems too ridiculous to comphend.

Back of the envelope calculation.....$20m undilluted market cap, more than 4 million in the bank, and sitting on over a billion dollars of near surface base and precious metals.

Some lucky buggers are picking up this stock for a song. :mad:

FarmerGeorge

02-04-2008, 08:00 AM

For better or worse I'm still buying. I think what we are seeing goes beyond market fear. The must be some selling for reasons we don't understand for this kind of volume. It may be the fallout from Opes, or it may be some inside stuff which we haven't yet heard. In twelve months I'm broke or nearing retirement. I'll let you know.

Taijon

02-04-2008, 08:59 AM

Hi to all the deluded and others

Options expire on 31 May 2008. I'm sitting on a bunch, average purchase price around 60 cents. I'm wondering whether to exercise or not as it could be throwing hard-earned money away. If the SP falls below 25 cents then obviosly I wouldn't exercise.

So far this year only 132K options have been exercised and most of those were back in January. Maybe there is some downward pressure on the SP as sellers look for funds to take up their options.

I'll probably wait until the last couple of weeks in May before deciding. What are others doing?

Good luck Farmer George.

Also deluded.

FarmerGeorge

02-04-2008, 12:51 PM

I'm looking at exercising in May. If the stock price were to drop under 25c that would imply about a $12m valuation. Nothing would surprise me given current market issues but with a $5m cash balance that would be pretty ludicrous. However you're quite right, at that price you'd be better off buying the heads than converting the options.

The heraldsun published the names of those effected by Opes and sure enough there was poor little PDZ. Hopefully we can move on from here in the next few months.

Huang Chung

02-04-2008, 08:14 PM

Some shareholder(s) have got caught with this Opes Prime mess, which has probably contributed to the weakness.

Holding tight, and riding out the storm!

FarmerGeorge

03-04-2008, 07:35 AM

I must apologise for posting so often recently, but the volume of PDZ traded since Friday has been just astounding (almost 3% of issued shares). The logical explanation for who is selling is ANZ post-Opes. I can't say if this is accurate but it makes sense, and if these sorts of volumes have come from them, then it goes some way to explaining why we've seen such a precipitous drop in SP over the past month or so. Some fairly big holders have obviously seen their margins decimated and that has created what Mark Yusko might call a 'death spiral' for the stock.

But it doesn't look like these big parcels are being dumped into the open market, and instead have been negotiated with a buyer. If half a million PDZ shares got thrown into this market we'd probably be looking at an insane sub 20c a share, instead of sub 40c, which is only regular vanilla crazy. My big question is who is buying? And what are their intentions? Any speculations?

The other option is that some big holder is using the Opes issue to cover their own reasons for selling, but the question of who is buying is still worth considering.

FarmerGeorge

07-04-2008, 02:04 PM

High volume continuing on PDZ, and unusually high volume on the options as well today. There's been an over 30% jump in price now since the lows around 37c (and more on those options I picked up at 14c) and perhaps something of a focus on the fundamentals. Obviously it's still painful to have watched all the way down from the highs but hopefully we can now put the Opes induced falls behind us for now. All we need now is for the zinc price to show a bit of bottle.

Huang Chung

07-04-2008, 07:03 PM

I understand there was an insto selling over the last couple of weeks, and undoubdedly some fringe Opes stuff as well.

Share price will obviously fluctuate with market sentiment. The 2008 drilling campaign will be starting any time now, and the results could be a significant driver going forward.

FarmerGeorge

17-04-2008, 12:55 PM

Wow. Time to get my reading glasses on ;)

Taijon

17-04-2008, 12:56 PM

To all those who have been feeling deluded

Today's news has acted like a dose of heroin. Spectacular copper discovery confirmed and after an hour's trading PDZO up 173%, PDZ up 52%.

Hell I might get out of the red yet!!!!!!!!!
Thanks HC and FG.

Huang Chung

17-04-2008, 06:58 PM

Unexpected, but most welcome announcement.

To my way of thinking, unless your a trader, best to forget the price action and focus on the underlying story.

It's early days for C7, but boy does it look promising. "Strike extensions are now being investigated and the Company is confident of further discoveries".......even a suggestion that copper mineralisation may continue between C7 and the Main Lode (3.2km away).

Of couse, it might all come to naught...the proof will be in the drilling, and that will all take time......but I've got to admit I'm feeling good about this one.

Looks like the oppies will get exercised, bringing another $5m into PDZs coffers. Should take the bank account to around $9m, which will pay for plenty of drilling.

Exciting times ahead. :)

FarmerGeorge

22-04-2008, 12:16 PM

Huang Chung

22-04-2008, 07:18 PM

This new announcement gives some more indication, with two things getting my attention: one that they are off to check out another targer, and two that this will be the primary drilling site later this quarter. So are we a copper company now?

Starting to sound a bit like that Farmer G......:D

So Costean 7 (surface outcropping of 5+% copper, minor lead) is 3.2km WEST of the main lode (295,000t zinc, 83,000t lead, plus silver).

Today's announcement is for another surface outcropping (copper), 1km to the EAST of Costean 7. This seems to tie in with last week's statement that 'copper mineralisation may continue between Costean 7 and the Main Lode'.

Last week's announcenment also said that 'strike extensions (from Costean 7) are now being investigated'......I'm not sure if this includes the outcropping announced today or not.....I wouldn't have thought that the outcropping announced today would be along strike.

The things that stand out for me are firstly, the outcropping of the mineralisation (how many mines START hundreds of metres underground), and secondly, the significant surface area over which mineralisation is occurring. I can't wait for PDZ to start drilling to see if these promising results are repeated at depth. I would imagine they would have a good chance of finding more outcrops as well, now that they know what to look.

Huang Chung

22-04-2008, 08:05 PM

Boardroom Radio presentation with MD Mark Hansen recorded last week.

http://www.brr.com.au/event/44851

foxysfolkfaced23

22-04-2008, 08:57 PM

these are dirt cheap at the moment, i had a mixture of options and heads and sold out in november 2007 near their highest price but these shares have been hit hard in 2008 - at these levels im waiting to get back in - especially with the potential copper find as a bonus - they were already seriously undervalued at present in my opinion of course....:cool:
strangley enough i had thought about getting back in to these last week before the copper announcement - i think the options had dropped to barely 10c at one stage.

Huang Chung

22-04-2008, 09:30 PM

these are dirt cheap at the moment, i had a mixture of options and heads and sold out in november 2007 near their highest price but these shares have been hit hard in 2008 - at these levels im waiting to get back in - especially with the potential copper find as a bonus - they were already seriously undervalued at present in my opinion of course....:cool:

Foxy.....you'll get no arguments from me.;)

I'm starting to think that copper might be more than a 'bonus'....it might end up being the main game.

FarmerGeorge

23-04-2008, 10:05 AM

Thanks for posting that BRR clip HC. He certainly made it sound like copper might be the main driver over the short term. Will be interesting to see how the next round of drilling goes. I've sold a few of those options I bought at 14c but will be converting most of them over the next month or so.

Huang Chung

24-04-2008, 06:07 PM

Shareprice is grinding its way back up. Helped myself to a few more today based on likely positive news on the copper exploration front.

Huang Chung

26-04-2008, 09:55 AM

Thanks for posting that BRR clip HC. He certainly made it sound like copper might be the main driver over the short term.

George, did you take any particular note of ......'Bankable Feasability Study underway now, completion in June, for commencement of a 500,000 tonne per annum mining operation'?

I'm assuming that this must now be the expected initial tonnage for the plant, up from the previously stated 300,000 tpa. In the 2007 annual report, they were planning for initial throughput of just 250,000 tpa.

I'll wait to see confirmation in writing, but by the sounds of it, yet another encouraging development.

This project just keeps growing.:)

FarmerGeorge

26-04-2008, 10:12 AM

HC I had totally missed that point, I guess I just heard 300k when I listened the first time! Thanks for pointing it out. There are three interpretations as far as I can tell:

1. It was a slip of the tongue.

2. The overall grade is disappointing hence the need to process more raw material to make any money.

3. The resource tonnage is big enough to justify a bigger expense going in, which probably means longer mine life as well.

Sound logical? As I said earlier in the year I've already effectively tied my portfolios fate to that of PDZ (approx. 33%) so all I can do is wait and see. I'm still very positive though.

Huang Chung

26-04-2008, 10:50 AM

Huang Chung

29-04-2008, 07:18 PM

Not too sure how many people noticed para 4 in the quarterly activities report released today......Mapping is now underway on a very large target area approximately one kilometre to the east of Costean Seven.

This is the first time we have had any discription of this new find....I must say I'm encouraged by the words 'very large'....especially in view of this stock's microcap status. :)

Keenly awaiting the release of the results.

Also good news on the cost front regarding the processing of their zinc, and throughput tonnage.

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=PDZ&E=ASX&N=404382

FarmerGeorge

30-04-2008, 09:21 AM

HC I seem to recall towards the end of one of the recent copper announcements words to the effect that they were shifting their equipment and team out to check out another potential copper resource, this might be the same one they are talking about. It is interesting that they use the words 'very large' in the announcement as for me PDZ actually have a history of underselling things until they really know what's on their hands.

Huang Chung

30-04-2008, 10:52 PM

George...Updated investor presentation now on PDZ website. Area map has been updated to show the location of Costean 7 in relation to the Main/Zed/Gabbro lodes.

http://www.prairiedownsmetals.com.au/Latest/Investor-Presentation-May-2008.html

FarmerGeorge

01-05-2008, 02:10 PM

Cheers, interesting times. Sometimes I wonder if it would be worth taking a short course in geology!

FarmerGeorge

02-05-2008, 01:51 PM

... and I see a few sellers have decided to jump in at around 90c-ish, but I'm not one of them. Hope you're enjoying this drive HC. Do we dare hope to return to the lofty heights of $1?
Hopefully a few others were able to buy at the lows...

Taijon

02-05-2008, 03:08 PM

Hi FG and HC

I've exercised my options and the notice was published by the comany a few days ago.
Total cost of my PDZ shares was close to 86 cents so I'm now in the black by a couple of cents.

Must admit I didn't expect this to happen as quickly as it has. Plan to keep holding.

Huang Chung

02-05-2008, 08:48 PM

Yes George, I'm enjoying the bounceback. A one and a half bagger in about three weeks for those who bought shares at those ridiculous lows. Still trading at only 2/3 of its highs ($1.30ish)....and that was before they found copper.

When the buyers offer me $3.00 a share, I'll be all ears.

PS....don't laugh, that's a fully dilluted market cap of just over $210m.....not a huge ask IMHO.

FarmerGeorge

03-05-2008, 05:24 AM

... or a four bagger if you got those options at 14c ;)

Times like these I wish I was back there and able to trade with a bit more agility: there have actually been quite a few arbitrage opportunities between the options and the heads over the past few days, with the options selling at 2-3 cents below what they should be given where the head buyers are. If anyone wanted to they could buy the options, convert and sell immediately, and pick up that premium. I wouldn't have mentioned it except that I can't take advantage so someone else is welcome to it ;) Just remember to return the favour someday :)

Huang Chung

03-05-2008, 12:16 PM

Times like these I wish I was back there and able to trade with a bit more agility.

I'm largely not trading these George....just buying and holding. :)

Huang Chung

06-05-2008, 09:28 PM

Second copper discovery within a month!

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=PDZ&E=ASX&N=405924

Huang Chung

07-05-2008, 08:13 PM

tricha

07-05-2008, 10:05 PM

Latest Boardroom Radio discussion with MD Mark Hansen, talking about the company's latest copper find.

http://www.prairiedownsmetals.com.au/Latest/Boardroom-Radio.html

'Unlikely that we won't put together at least a modest resource'.
'The size of the area we've explored, and the continuity of the mineralisation suggests we've got excellent potential for perhaps discovering something rather large'.
'This could shape up as one of the most significant discoveries we've seen in Western Australia in the base metals sector'.
:) :) :) :)

Wow awesome commentry Huang, u have got a winner here, a CDU in the making.
Only trouble is I've got oil on my brain.

Yes copper is to stay strong, the NZ govt have bought the railways back of Toll Holdings, I can see billions more very soon injected, to complete the electricification. Just a small example of what the oil price will happen. Lots more Copper and Zinc I might add.

Happy hunting and I will keep following with interest.

Huang Chung

07-05-2008, 10:13 PM

Wow awesome commentry Huang, u have got a winner here, a CDU in the making.
Only trouble is I've got oil on my brain.

Yes copper is to stay strong, the NZ govt have bought the railways back of Toll Holdings, I can see billions more very soon injected, to complete the electricification. Just a small example of what the oil price will happen. Lots more Copper and Zinc I might add.

Happy hunting and I will keep following with interest.

Cheers T.....its hard to get anyone here interested in anything other than oil and CSG at the moment. :D

Just remember, they haven't drilled these copper discoveries yet....just channel sampling and rock chips on the (extensive) outcrops. 20,000m of drilling coming up, so stay tuned.

P.S. OEL seems to be coming together nicely for you.;)

Bobbyvee

07-05-2008, 11:29 PM

Hi HC, don't feel all alone! I am into PDZ now (last week) and share both your enthusiasm and caution wrt clear confirmation that they are really on to something (drilling results).

In the meantime I am primarily excited about the prospects for TZN and KAR (where I am significantly invested).

Huang Chung

20-05-2008, 08:17 PM

Guys

Anyone who wants to hear an interesting story, and learn a bit more about base metal mining and geology, should spare the time to listen to this presentation by Prairie Downs MD Mark Hansen.

http://www.brr.com.au/event/45689

Huang Chung

22-05-2008, 12:23 PM

I'd say there is some good news coming! :)

Don't be tardy if you've got this one on your watch list.

FarmerGeorge

22-05-2008, 12:52 PM

Hi HC, yes it's interesting that they decided on a trading halt. I've converted all my options and have been thinking about selling a few down, you know, having read about this 'diversification' thing ;) but haven't gotten around to it. If PDZ goes far over a dollar I might head to Fiji for a couple weeks to get out of this cold!

Also thanks for posting the BRR clip, how do you keep up to date with those, do you get a news feed or something?

Huang Chung

22-05-2008, 01:24 PM

Also thanks for posting the BRR clip, how do you keep up to date with those, do you get a news feed or something?

I'm sure there is some sort of BRR alert you can subscribe to, but I just regularly check the websites of my companies.

When you've only got about 3 stocks, its pretty easy to do....one of the wonders of NOT being diversified :D.

Huang Chung

23-05-2008, 12:10 PM

3.7km of copper mineralisation, and check the grades. Gold credits as well.

http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/showAnnouncementPDF.do?idsID=00844708

Quite simply, this is looking like another Mt Isa!

They need to get not one, but a fleet of drill rigs up there fast!

FarmerGeorge

23-05-2008, 12:40 PM

Huang Chung

23-05-2008, 12:54 PM

Just came in from feeding out, nice way to start my lunch break! This is just fantastic stuff, and a really great reward for those (I'm looking at you in particular HC!) who have kept the faith. With this pop up PDZ is now well over 50% of the portfolio which is a bit disconcerting, but I'll see how things pan out in the next few weeks before pulling anything out. Geez this is better money than feeding cattle, and I don't even have to get my boots wet.

Goerge, you really have to ask what the downside is from here, compared to the potential upside. What they've found so far is on the surface....Hansen has already said we WILL get a resource from Costean 7 and Kerrs.....pretty much just scoop it up. And essentially we get this copper/gold for very little extra cost!...it will be processed in the plant they were already designing for the zinc / lead, but now in all probablity scaled up.

Lordy only knows what's lying underneath...that could be the real icing on the cake.

Huang Chung

23-05-2008, 02:15 PM

If the market wants to value this company at $70m, that's fine by me.

I'll just take a few more shares off their hands.

njat

26-05-2008, 10:23 AM

I agree, it is surprsing to me the share price has found it hard to push past $1.00. I have been holding and accumulating PDZ for a looong time and have an average share price of $0.56 and have seen many ups and significant downs along the way. But given that PDZ was trading up to $1.40 in Nov 2007 based on the zinc, lead silver resource and now we have strong indication of copper and maybe even some gold it seesm strange the market is so restrained, even accepting the current market conditions etc. I seen much more risky companies with lots more shares on offer rocket away on less news. I just can't fugure who would be selling PDZ for less than $1 at the moment, makes me wonder.

FarmerGeorge

26-05-2008, 05:26 PM

My guess, and it's only a guess, is that the ceiling on the price has at least something to do with all the options being exercised. People looking to convert but without the free cash are just converting then selling enough of the heads to cover the exercise price.
Those who bought in low and have doubled their money in the past few weeks might be looking to cash a few out as well. Not me though I'm hanging out for a bit longer.

Huang Chung

26-05-2008, 07:44 PM

pago

26-05-2008, 08:04 PM

For the 2 or 3 people on Sharetrader who are looking at something other than oil or csg, here is a link to a short Boardroom Radio interview with Mark Hansen released this afternoon.

http://www.prairiedownsmetals.com.au/Latest/Broadcast-26-May-2008.html

hi hg,i watch/hold other then csg.i hold thor, thr,small operation but was oversold,maybe on the turn,moly,china offtake,buyin,trying for finance to produce,up 34% today.worth a look cheers pago

Huang Chung

28-05-2008, 08:40 PM

Link to AMEC National Mining Congress present audio presentation by managing Director Mark Hansen on Boardroom Radio.

http://www.brr.com.au/event/45900

Note, by scrolling down, you can follow the slides that he's talking to.

Bobbyvee

29-05-2008, 12:34 AM

Thanks HC. it is an interesting story and I have made an initial investment. I am just not sure whether Mark is salesman/optimist or whether there is truly really strong potential. For the time being I will hold and watch. Other opinions?

FarmerGeorge

29-05-2008, 08:53 AM

Mark will soon be looking for a few million dollars to get Prairie Downs producing, so yes he's a salesman; and he's the MD and largest shareholder of a small, non-producing exploration and development company which needs some cash to get up and running, so yes he's an optimist. That said, he's also a geologist, and he's selling results which in many ways speak for themselves. And of course this is not a new story, this has been unfolding for the past couple years so it's not like he's just arrived out of the blue. I've held for around 18 months and continued to add up until a couple months back. I have a volatile portfolio so depending on how other things move up and down PDZ is about 40-45% of my total portfolio right now.
There may be some short term run up if the MD can sell this presentation well but, as has been mentioned, there will need to be some capital raised which could put a cap on the SP for a time. Also, as mentioned in the BRR from HC, we probably have at least 2 years to wait until PDZ makes some money (any takeovers notwithstanding) so between now and then there is plenty, both good and bad, that could happen. My position is that there won't be any major trouble with the cap. raising, and that any new announcements regarding resources will be very positive, hence my large investment. But that is my opinion only so we'll see how it goes.

njat

16-06-2008, 03:59 PM

Hopefully this is not a stupid question but was wondering if anybody has any theories on the steady SP decline recently. I note today they are trading at 0.67, i grabbed few more and .76 and am trying to scratch up some more money to get some more at these levels. But am can not understand why the fall in SP, I know zinc and for that matter copper prices have slipped, an oil prices are creating negative sentiment in the market but with only 70 million shares on offer, defined zinc etc resource and speculation about a copper/ gold resource I thought they were undervalued at $1. Any theories on decline in SP and are others accumulating at these levels?

FarmerGeorge

16-06-2008, 05:08 PM

For what it's worth I'll be a buyer sub-50c or so. I also believe this is undervalued at current prices but we're in a volatile place just now and I feel like things are liable to undershoot by more than they overshoot, if they do at all.

Huang Chung

16-06-2008, 06:58 PM

I picked up another 14,000 last week at 73c. Nearly went in this afternoon to clean up 4,000 that were sitting there at 69c.

Just slipping back on a weak stock market and sliding metals prices.....not that today's metal prices have any real impact on them mind you.

Still amazing to think that we are so close to the start of a large and very exciting drilling campaign, and people are selling.....why the frick did they buy in in the first place??

njat

17-06-2008, 08:55 AM

Still amazing to think that we are so close to the start of a large and very exciting drilling campaign, and people are selling.....why the frick did they buy in in the first place??

exactly! I couldn't agree more.

Huang Chung

28-06-2008, 01:34 AM

At last!

First drill rig now on site and has commenced drilling.

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=PDZ&E=ASX&N=411684

This could be very exciting. I've heavily into this stock, so I've got a lot riding on them reporting some decent intercepts.

Fingers crossed. :rolleyes:

Huang Chung

03-07-2008, 07:22 PM

As expected, the PDZ share price has rallied on the commencement of drilling the first of their newly discovered copper outcroppings.

Today was most interesting, considering the generally bearish tone to the market, including the resource plays.

PDZ was up 2.5c on excellent volume, after a very nice run the previous couple of days.

So, are punters buying in on the excitment / expectation of drilling...or something else going on? :rolleyes:

foxysfolkfaced23

03-07-2008, 07:58 PM

yes it has been interesting times for PDZ. everything else is turning to p00 in the last week BUT the last five trading days prior to today have seen gains of:

02 Jul 2008: 12.99%
01 Jul 2008: 13.24%
30 Jun 2008: -2.16%
27 Jun 2008: 0.72%
26 Jun 2008: 9.52%

and on top of these gains another 2.87% to add to the list today on a really negative day all around.

I re-read the two announcements re: copper discoveries and upcoming drilling program and have decided to buy back in. I owned some of these about 12 months ago but this time i'm expecting even bigger things.

If there is any depth at all then PDZ could have a huge copper resource to go along with their already defined 1 billion + dollar zinc resource.

Looking foward to the drilling results...... :cool:

Huang Chung

03-07-2008, 08:43 PM

Hi Foxy

Just goes to prove that there is life outside the energy space if you look in the right places. :)

FarmerGeorge

04-07-2008, 01:13 PM

Huang Chung

04-07-2008, 09:39 PM

Yes the drop was on relatively low volume, unfortunately didn't get low enough for me to be a buyer this time around. No complaints from here though, just hope that we find something good in that copper deposit. Also worth remembering that their zinc is still open so an upgrade there is not unlikely.

Remember Mark was saying in one of his presentations that the rule of thumb is depth is about twice the strike length. If that were to hold water in their zinc/lead lodes, you would be looking at a depth of well over a kilometre....They've so far drilled down to 2-250m only. It would be more amazing if they didn't get an upgrade of their zinc/lead lodes.

In the meantime, impatiently awaiting the initial results from their drilling program on the first of their copper prospects.

There is a new Mining Matters report on their website. Here is the link. For some reason, I can get about half way through and it then stops.....

http://www.prairiedownsmetals.com.au/Latest/Mining-Matters-June-2008.html

Can anybody access the second part of the story?

FarmerGeorge

04-07-2008, 09:51 PM

HC thanks for posting that, and all the other things you post on here. As a confirmed technidiot I appreciate it! I was able to watch the segment to the end though, not sure why if would have stopped on you mate.

Huang Chung

04-07-2008, 09:55 PM

Anything new in the second half FG?

foxysfolkfaced23

04-07-2008, 10:48 PM

just watched that report - it was aired on the 28/06/08 - no wonder the share price has had a jump in the past week.

hc - 2nd half just talks about high metal grades and the fact that the strike is close to the surface and that the copper will act as a hedge for low zinc prices - and minimise capital payback - all looks extremely positive from here.

i am expecting the drilling results to be a few weeks away yet but then a steady stream of results will follow - just like they did with their zinc results last year.....:cool:

Huang Chung

04-07-2008, 10:55 PM

FarmerGeorge

05-07-2008, 11:04 AM

Don't remember the exact wording but the most striking thing for me was when Hansen said something like "we could have here the most exciting base metal deposit in Western Australia". It echoes something that came out a couple months ago but is really quite a big statement from a company which traditionally hasn't over promised.

shasta

07-07-2008, 06:22 PM

foxysfolkfaced23

07-07-2008, 06:22 PM

here we go.....

Trading Halt - for an announcement regarding the results from its current exploration activities from the PDZ project....

hopefully some good grades and lots of depth:cool:

foxysfolkfaced23

07-07-2008, 06:24 PM

sorry shasta just bet me to that by a few seconds..

Huang Chung

07-07-2008, 08:11 PM

HC - Your thoughts?

Trading Halt - re Prairie Downs results

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=PDZ&E=ASX&N=412954

Logic tells me they have something significant to report, presumably related to the drilling they commenced about a fortnight ago.

Mark Hansen doesn't muck around if there is visible mineralisation in the core, and he's got one of those Niton XRF analysers on site that he can run over the core as well.

Not ridgy didge like the lab, but it could give some indicative results.

Don't forget they should have continued with the surface sampling/exploration along strike, so it could be some news on that front as well.....although if memory serves me correctly they didn't call a trading halt in respect of the later surface outcroppings they found.

As you probably realise Shasta, PDZ has been well bid over the past couple of weeks in expectation of some good news....always the risk of a pull back if the news isn't deemed sufficiently good by the market.

Very exciting times. :)

foxysfolkfaced23

09-07-2008, 11:45 AM

so let me see if i understand this announcement correctly...

**the interval from 0.6-9 metres is mineralised in copper(0.1% to 4%), zinc(2% to 8%) and silver(10g/t to 50g/t)
**the interval from 9 metres to 285 metres has continuous copper(often 0.2% to 1%, with regular zones 2% to 6%) and silver mineralisation(15g/t to 40g/t, with regular zones exceeding 100g/t) & there is gold present in the system
**the interval from 285 metres to 311 metres is mineralised in silver (15g/t to 25g/t % 0.05% copper)

so basically we have mineralisation all the way down to 300+ metres of varying grades - that sounds pretty good to me.

please correct me if all this is wrong or if i have misunderstood - but im extremely happy to be hold PDZ currently :cool:

FarmerGeorge

09-07-2008, 04:43 PM

I'm not sure if one hole tells us anything much at all to be honest. I'm not sure this even warranted a trading halt and announcement, although I guess it is nice to know the copper is not just on the surface, plus that looks like a good amount of silver as well. My feeling is that give us another few weeks and we'll have something to really understand what we have on our hands.

Huang Chung

09-07-2008, 08:00 PM

I stumped up for another 40,000 shares today.

BRR interview link below:

http://www.prairiedownsmetals.com.au/Latest/Broadcast-09-July-2008.html

Today's announcement probably created as many questions as it provided answers, and markets hate uncertainty. Hansen infers in the BRR interview that the core is nothing like what they expected. They were hoping for 20m of mineralisation, with 50m being the upside.....they got over 300m! Management were probably too quick off the mark and maybe should have waited until a couple of holes were drilled, with the XRF results across the entire mineralised zone tabled in the release.

Essentially, it seems like they might have grabbed a monster by the tail and now not quite know what to do with it. :eek:

Huang Chung

10-07-2008, 09:37 PM

The key here is that they think they just MIGHT have a porphyry copper deposit on their hands.

Too early to tell for certain.

From Wikipedia - Porphyry copper deposits are copper (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Copper) orebodies (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ore) which are associated with porphyritic (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Porphyry_%28geology%29) intrusive (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Intrusive) rocks. The ore occurs as disseminations along hairline fractures as well as within larger veins, which often form a stockwork (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stockwork). The orebodies typically contain between 0.4 and 1 % copper (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Copper) with smaller amounts of other metals such as molybdenum (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Molybdenum), silver (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Silver) and gold (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gold). They are formed when large quantities of hydrothermal (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hydrothermal) solutions carrying small quantities of metals pass through fractured rock within and around the intrusive and deposit the metals.

Porphyry style deposits are the largest in the world....for example, Escondida is a porphyry system.

We have some porphyrys in Australia....Cadia and Northparkes being good examples.

Porphyrys are typically large tonnage but generally low grade.

Prairie Downs have found outcroppings of copper over a strike length of 3.7km, and their very first drill hole hits more than 300m of continuous mineralisation from the surface.....certainly sounds like it has the potential to be a big system.

I think the market looked at the (rather confusing) announcement, didn't see anything like x metres at 7% copper, and just sold it off. A bit hasty I think.

I would suggest to anyone looking at mining exploration companies to put PDZ on their watch list......potentially we could be witnessing something here that we haven't seen in Australia for quite a while.

tricha

19-07-2008, 12:08 AM

Hey Huang

I hope u have a balanced portfilio, 50% in PDZ and 50% in VML, would equal = 0% neutral today.

Isn't this market like life on the edge :eek:

Huang Chung

19-07-2008, 12:19 AM

Hey Huang

I hope u have a balanced portfilio, 50% in PDZ and 50% in VML, would equal = 0% neutral today.

Isn't this market like life on the edge :eek:

Hey T

I've sold down a few VML in recent times, and bought more of the doggies.

I've also spread my money around a few other investments in small amounts. It was simply too risky in this credit constrained environment to be 100% in two explorers who will need funds to develop their projects.

Roughly 80% in PDZ and VML, with the majority of that in PDZ.

Huang Chung

29-07-2008, 07:51 PM

Looks like traders exited stage left today on no positive news from the drilling at Coatean 7. Seems that they had a bad run with the drill rig they'd contracted (and now terminated). Seems like mineralisation was encountered, but this was not detailed, so its hard to get excited. In any case, these were the first few holes in what looks to be many kilometres of prospective strike.

RC rig should arrive this week....hopefully they'll get a better run with it.

Feasibility study for the Main, Zed and Gabbro lodes looks very encouraging, but more tonnes will need to be defined.

FarmerGeorge

31-07-2008, 10:12 PM

Yes, also I think there was some disappointment on the timeframe announced for the mine. I'm not exactly over the moon and won't be a buyer unless we see something in the low 40's, high 30's per share region, but I'm hoping we get a nice announcement on drilling before it comes to that!

Huang Chung

31-07-2008, 11:08 PM

G'day George

By my reckoning, current production plan for the Main/Zed/Gabbro lodes will resut in a conservative profit of $30m-$35m per annum for 5 years, BUT capital costs will take over half of that.

So after, paying back capital costs for say (conservatively), three years, we would make around $70m over the following two years. This assumes a 2.5mt high grade resource, up from the current 1.6mt....which I would suggest shouldn't be too hard to achieve. It also assumes that zinc prices are around current levels a couple of years down the track.....everything I've read suggests the price will by then be higher. It also doesn't factor in production from the much larger lower grade zone (currently 3mt but also likely to grow)

All of this, of course, assumes that they don't find any mineable copper or other metals along strike, or at depth...ie they stick to a plant capacity 500,000tpa. Any additional finds are likely to bump up the size of the plant.

PDZ has suffered from some unfortunate timing, in that the feasibility study for the Main/Zed and Gabbro lodes has arrived hot on the heels of, firstly, news of substantial surface outcropping of copper and lead, and secondly, a false start in drilling the C7 find. I think its created a lot of confusion as to PDZ's game plan....first we're going to be a zinc/lead/silver miner, then we're going to be a copper miner, and now we're back to being a zinc/lead/silver miner. As I said, some unfortunate timing of events, not helped by some less than well constructed ASX releases.

The feasibility study is great news in my view, because it points to profitable production at even these low zinc prices. It DOES require more drilling to establish that initial 5 year high grade production, but after that has been concluded, they should be able to get the necessary funds to build the plant.

Also, the negativity around the aborted drill program is a complete over-reaction in my opinion.....it might take a bit of drilling to gain an understanding of the geology. I think everyone was expecting a hole in one on the first drill hole, but was that ever a realistic expectation?....probably not.

I think they need to get their drilling program back on track (RC rig should arrive in the next couple of days), drill 20 holes and not say a word to the market until the assays are back.

Too much red cordial being consumed by punters at the moment......

FarmerGeorge

01-08-2008, 11:22 PM

Excellent thoughts HC and thanks, just wondering what sort of per lb costs you're factoring in?
My concern is also around how much we discount that cash given it's a few years until we see it, and we may well be in an inflationary environment.
Not to be a pessimist eh, I'm knee deep in PDZ and hoping for the best, just trying to work through all aspects.

Huang Chung

02-08-2008, 12:44 AM

Arrgh, my calclations are at work.

Basically, I used the numbers presented for mining, milling transport etc, and used a smelter charge of $350 a tonne. I'm a bit fuzzy with this bit, but I understand that this charge to be fairly accurate in respect of the zinc concentrate, and was actually set when zinc traded at far higher levels, so there is a reasonable chance that this charge could drop back in line with the weakened zinc price (or, the zinc price strengthens).

I also discounted the metal price by 15% from current spot.

All back of the envelope stuff, but pretty close I think.

Essentially, I see that we have a viable project as is. How much cream there is comes down to whether they can expand the current resource (or not).

Turning to exploration, did you note in today's release that the last 3 holes were 350m along strike from the first two? First two were 'sporadically mineralised in copper' with lesser amounts of zinc, lead and silver, and the last three 'sporadic lead mineralisation', with lesser amounts of copper, zinc and silver (I'd love to know what their idea of 'sporadic' is???). Probably uneconomic grades or widths, but encouraging none the less. But really, who knows until we get some assays back and do more drilling.

5 out of 5 holes mineralised....not that hole-in-one, but I feel they've landed on the green :rolleyes:.

Huang Chung

19-08-2008, 09:03 PM

Interesting development today......

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=PDZ&E=ASX&N=417890

I wonder who the new MD will be?

drillfix

19-08-2008, 10:10 PM

Interesting development today......

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=PDZ&E=ASX&N=417890

I wonder who the new MD will be?

Interesting Huang,

What effect do you think will be a result of having a new MD?. I guess it depends on who the New MD is I suppose

I dont hold but curious to see the results of transition nonetheless~!

Huang Chung

19-08-2008, 10:32 PM

Interesting Huang,

What effect do you think will be a result of having a new MD?. I guess it depends on who the New MD is I suppose

I dont hold but curious to see the results of transition nonetheless~!

Always a bit unsettling when there is a change at the top drill. I wonder if the new guy might have more experience in production vs Hansen's exploration background??

Hansen stays on the Board, so hopefully there will be a smooth transition. At least his knowledge of the Prairie Downs geology won't be lost to the company.

I keenly await news of his replacement.

Bobbyvee

19-08-2008, 11:59 PM

This article from Business News raises questions asto what is behind the move.

Company director Mark Hansen has stepped down from board positions at Western Uranium Ltd and Prairie Downs Metals Ltd following the termination of an agreement.

In brief statements to the market, both companies advised shareholders that an executive services agreement with Market Capital Group Pty Ltd, which provides the services of Mr Hansen, has been terminated.

Mr Hansen has now stepped down from his managing director position at Prairie Downs and the technical director role at Western Uranium.

However he still remains on the board in a non-executive director capacity.

Director for both companies Alec Pismiris told WA Business News that he could not elaborate any further than what was mentioned in the statements."

Glad I don't have too much at stake!

Huang Chung

20-08-2008, 09:47 AM

I've got plenty riding on this one Bobbyvee, so I hope the transition to new management goes smoothly.

Actually, it's not the management per se I'm worried about, it's more that Hansen's understanding of the geology is not lost to the company....which it seems it won't be as he will have a continuing Board role.

Anyhow, Luke Kerr is still with the company, so that's a positive.

FarmerGeorge

22-08-2008, 06:51 PM

The new candidates will probably be privy to information not known to us. We might tell a lot about PDZ's prospects by the quality of who decides to take this on after doing their DD.
I am definitely a potential buyer at the current price but might just wait for assay's from Costean before I jump in. Better to buy at 40c with some good results than have bought at 35 with disappointing ones in this environment.
Like you HC I have significant 'skin' in this one so would like to see something positive, particularly on the management side.

Huang Chung

22-08-2008, 08:16 PM

Hi George....did you see ths afternoon's announcement?

http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/showAnnouncementPDF.do?idsID=00872205

It's a bit confusing in parts, particularly in respect of the current RC drilling. I interpret it to mean that 13 of the 16 holes drilled to date in this campaign have hit mineralisation, and the remaining three have been collared, awaiting conversion of the rig to a diamond drill to continue drilling these three holes to the prospective mineralised zone. Three of the 13 intersected both alteration (Gabbro lode??) and sulphide mineralisation.

Anyhow, it's good to see things are progressing in the field.

I reckon we should get the C7 assays sometime very soon. I will be interesting to see some figures.

FarmerGeorge

23-08-2008, 12:31 PM

I read it HC and yes it did seem to be hedging it's bets a little bit. Now, we can try and connect dots and say that Hansen left because results were poor and this unclear and unconfident release is a precursor to a big disappointing announcement. I'm not really a conspiracy theorist however so my guess is the type of announcement we saw just reflects the fact that Hansen didn't have his hand in there so clarity and confidence was missing from the paper. Doesn't inspire confidence going forward though. Bring on a new MD, fast.

Huang Chung

23-08-2008, 03:26 PM

George, I think you need to bin your conspiracy theories.......

FarmerGeorge

23-08-2008, 04:17 PM

I actually heard Hansen's face was spotted on the grassy knoll...

But no I think the change in tone is simply due to him not being there to oversee or write the material. Nothing too scary at this point but I would like to see someone good in charge announced ASAP. I don't really like holding shares in a company without an MD/CEO and I think that's a pretty reasonable position. Will try to keep my conspiracy theories to a minimum in future... ;)

Huang Chung

23-08-2008, 05:02 PM

It's been a perfect storm for PDZ over the last couple of months....crappy markets, tanking zinc/lead prices, MD departure, unclear announcements, aborted drill program etc etc.

I think you'll find yesterday's announcement was made to steady the ship. Positive news seems to be the resource drilling on the zinc/lead lodes has commenced and is making good progress. Although poorly written, I'm of the opinion that all holes that were expected to hit the mineralised zone have done so, and the remainder have been drilled and collared in preparation for the diamond drill to take these holes down to the mineralised zone.

As I understand it, RC drills are only good for depths of 300m or there abouts. However, RC holes can be drilled a lot more quickly (and thus economically) than diamond holes. RC rigs produce rock chips, which are bagged and then sent for analysis. Diamond rigs produce core. If you are targeting something maybe 500m down hole, you really want to get to the interesting bit as cheaply as possible, and only core the bit that you are interested in. Collaring the hole (essentially puting in a liner) preserves the integrity of the RC drilled hole near surface (where there is more broken rock/soil), while you wait on the diamond rig to complete the job by going straight down the pre-drilled hole.

So, my guess is that three of the 16 holes are going to be deepish holes to test for extensions at depth. They've been partially drilled (with the RC rig), and will be completed upon conversion of the rig to diamond drilling starting in a week or so.

So essentially...my interpretation is that all is well with the current drill program.

njat

25-08-2008, 10:01 AM

I must say the uncertainty of PDZ releases is extremely frustrating, if you haven't really got any thing to announce why bother at all as it just gives everbody, including me the jitters. Has been along time since any positive drill results and the time frames just seem to be dragging on and on. I too have plenty riding on PDZ at the moment and am becoming increasingly frustrated as while many of the factors slamming the SP are outside their control they have also contributed significantly to their own slump I think with poorly worded and contructed announcements, lack of information about Hansen leaving and simply taking too long with their drilling. Am growing increasingly concerned the whole Copper 'find' was a bit of a beat up to ensure options would be converted.

FarmerGeorge

25-08-2008, 06:37 PM

Entirely understand the frustrations, however those options were only 20 or 25 cents to convert so they were never really in danger of expiring out of the money.

Bobbyvee

25-08-2008, 08:25 PM

Well hope you right Huang Chung and there is nothing to worry about, nevertheless I have decided to bail out for the time being - Why? Fear that where there is smoke (management changes with no clear explanation) there may be fire.

Huang Chung

25-08-2008, 09:05 PM

You've got to back your judgement Bobbyvee, and I definitely understand where you're coming from.

I think the worst might be over, but nervous holders will undoubtedly keep the price down for a while, as they look for an opportunity to exit.

There is (I presume) one seller of 200,000 shares sitting at 40c, which is putting a ceiling on the selling price.....probably would be better for everyone if they pulled that sell order and dribbled the shares out...they are certainly having no success with their current strategy.

I bought a few shares late last week, and have another bid in at 30c. LME zinc and lead stockpiles seem to be turning down, which is a good sign. Some positive news on the MD front and drilling results should send the share price heading in the righ direction. I don't think they'll have much trouble increasing the zinc/lead/silver resource, but it seems they have not yet got a grip on the copper finds (there again, with only 821m drilled, this is not surprising!)

As frustrating as it is, I'll try and be patient.

njat

26-08-2008, 09:09 AM

There appears to be at least one major seller in the market which is HSBC who in the month of june dropped 831,000 shares and clearly intends to sell their entire holding which at end of june meant they had another 2,816,608 to dispose of. Hopefully with the large volumes we saw after the copper announcemnt he has got rid of a lot more. As you say jittery sellers will continue to keep the price low for sometime i expect. I however will hang in there, it has been a long ride but I'm not getting off now as a couple of good announcements and a change in sentiment can change the whole ball game. Like farmer George i will wait for some positive news before I am abuyer again.

FarmerGeorge

12-09-2008, 05:28 PM

22 cents?! Now we're really getting silly, methinks I'm a buyer

Huang Chung

12-09-2008, 06:01 PM

Well, FG, step up to the mark this arvo will you!

I think we've reached what might be called 'capitulation'.:confused:

drillfix

12-09-2008, 06:16 PM

Well, FG, step up to the mark this arvo will you!

I think we've reached what might be called 'capitulation'.:confused:

Hi Huang,

Man this has fallen like many big time.

Every single thing seems to be a BIG BAD JOKE, but it definitely is NOT FUNNY at all.

No wonder there still is a Blood and Guts on the Floor thread in this forum, because that is what it feels like, or at least to me.

Good luck on this one HC, I hope like many stocks, they can rise out of these ashes or fall no further but who in the world has a Crystal Ball on this matter.

Some folk say this, some say that and nothing makes sense except the fact we all should have had cash out last year (at least).

Huang Chung

12-09-2008, 06:46 PM

Hi Drilly

Man, this one's slowly killing me......

Most of the fall has come through pretty low volumes. I'm a bit pissed that the Directors haven't stepped up to the mark and bought a few shares, or at least provided an update of the drilling campaign and their cash position.

What is sorely missing right now is confidence in the future of this company....low zinc/lead prices, credit crunch, no MD, unknown drilling results and poor communications. Honestly, I can't blame people for bailing.

The known PDZ resource would currently be worth about $800m. A reasonable valuation at this stage of development would be around 5% of the IGV, so say $40m. Then you could ascribe any value to like for the blue sky.
Market is currently saying this resource (in this company's hands) is worth about $12,000,000 ($18m market cap less say $6m in the bank).

Of course, if they can't secure funding, its worth nothing to them unless they put the deposit (or the company itself) up for sale. Looking at the PEM deal yesterday, I don't think they'd get very much at the moment in any case.

So I'll just hold and hope that we're still around to see a better zinc price and easier access to capital.....Unfortunately for me, it might be quite a wait. :(

FarmerGeorge

13-09-2008, 04:57 PM

Don't get too down HC. This is sector wide: take a look around at other explorers as far from production as PDZ. Probably looking just as sick relative to where they were a year ago. I've dumped a few stocks over the past few months as they dropped and dropped (and have continued to drop and may not ever come back) but I'm holding on to PDZ. This is a huge correction in the market and many stocks which were hyped will not come back regardless of the environment going forward. But my belief is that PDZ is just sufferring from the rest of the market and will outperform when things turn. Such is the life of investing in junior explorers.

Huang Chung

19-09-2008, 09:35 PM

I waded in and picked up a bag full today FG.

Probably the actions of a crazy man, but I'm hoping that a lot of the cloudiness currently engulfing PDZ will dissipate by years end.

tricha

20-09-2008, 12:46 AM

I waded in and picked up a bag full today FG.

Probably the actions of a crazy man, but I'm hoping that a lot of the cloudiness currently engulfing PDZ will dissipate by years end.

Brave of u Huang, but if u believe in something strong enough, why not.

Personally my view is zinc is stuffed, China used to be a very large net exporter and they are back into it now.

From what I have read, they have mountains of it.

U should have ploughed back into PPP, not many companies out there that have mountains of cash.

Food for thought.

Huang Chung

20-09-2008, 11:21 AM

tricha

20-09-2008, 09:50 PM

Thats cool Huang, hopefully on Tuesday u should get a bounce and u can average out some.
Nothing like buying on the way down, Mincor was my favourite for doing that, I might has averaged out, too soon in some of them, but that's the safe way of doing it.
The 1000% Mincor days are well and truely dusted though, except Mincor is now dirt cheap.

U R right PPP is not going to make me a million, but, I can sleep at night, knowing the cash is catching up to the share price.
100 % gain is not beyond it though. The bear will decide that.

tricha

20-09-2008, 10:45 PM

Hi T

I'm intentionally being uber-contrairian by loading up with more PDZ Tricha.

I'm taking a totally opposite view to you on zinc, and think now is a great time to be increasing my exposure to the metal via potential future producers. Zinc is bottoming in my opinion, as signified by the high cost production coming out of the market. I'm not sure what you've been reading T, but everything I've been reading indicates better times ahead for zinc (2010 or thereabouts).

A $60,000 slice of stock gives you nearly half a percent of the entire company. We're talking a billion dollar resource here, give or take a hundred million depending on the POZ, POL, exchange rate, near term resource grades etc. The copper 'blue sky' is being valued at zero (which is not surprising).

Make no mistake, this is a complete gamble, but I like the odds if I look at a 2-3 year timeframe.

PPP is a good safe bet, appropriate for these challenging times, but its a low risk/low return strategy, where as PDZ is high risk/high return.....really not comparable.

I've got several safe industrial stocks, but want to keep some spice in the portfolio as well.

As I said, actions of a crazy man :eek:.

I have just read their last few reports and I am not buying them.
U R right complete gamble, 2 years ago it was different.;) Debt in this market gets punished, cash in this market does not get marked much better.:eek:

Quarterly Report for the Period Ended 30 June 2008

Prairie Downs Base Metal Project

FEASIBILITY RESULTS

The Prairie Downs Base Metal Project is located approximately 100 kilometres southwest of Newman
in the Eastern Pilbara region of Western Australia. At the current time the project hosts a total Global
Resource of 4.7 million tonnes at a grade of 6.3% zinc, 18g/t silver and 1.8% lead at a nominal lower
cut off grade of 1% zinc. It remains open at depth and along strike. This resource contains 295,000
tonnes of zinc, 2.6 million ounces of silver and 83,000 tonnes of lead. It includes a High Grade
Resource of 1.6 million tonnes at a grade of 12.3% zinc, 36g/t silver and 3.7% lead. The silver grade
appears to be under reported according to metallurgical testwork which will be confirmed by further
analysis.
Abesque Engineering & Construction Ltd was engaged in October 2007 to complete a feasibility study
covering the process plant and related supporting surface infrastructure. This study is now complete
and the results are summarised below.
The process facilities have been designed to treat 500,000 tonnes per annum of base metal ore,
which at a 91.3% availability equates to a throughput rate of 62.5 tonnes per hour. It is designed to
allow expansion to a throughput of 1,000,000 tpa. The crushing plant will operate on day shift seven
days per week. The milling, flotation and dewatering areas will operate around the clock seven days
per week.
Metallurgical testwork indicates that the process plant will produce 113,240 dry tonnes of zinc
concentrate per annum and 18,022 dry tonnes of silver concentrate per annum. The overall zinc
recovery is 92%, lead 94.8% and silver 96.1%.
The zinc concentrate will grade 50.3% zinc and 121ppm silver for annual production of 57,000 tonnes
of zinc metal and 200,000 ounces of silver metal. The silver concentrate will grade 1255ppm silver
and 63.6% lead for annual production of 385,500 ounces of silver metal and 11,700 tonnes of lead
metal.
The estimated capital expenditure for the process plant and supporting infrastructure is AUD86 million
based on the May 2008 dollar, being made up of a cost for the process plant of AUD52 million at ±
10% and a cost of AUD34 million at ± 20% for the supporting infrastructure.
Operating costs from the ROM pad to delivery of concentrate to Port Hedland (or an equivalent port)
have been calculated at AUD41/tonne milled while processing at 500,000 tpa rate. The largest
operating cost component is concentrate transport, followed in order by power supplied from gas
generators and personnel.
The mining feasibility has not been completed as resource drilling is about to recommence on the
Main and Zed Lodes which is expected to lead to a substantial increase in the resource base. In
addition the copper discoveries this year and lead discovery last year have improved the probability of
discovering open-pittable mineralization. However, based upon pre-feasibility work completed last

ASX RELEASE 29 JULY 2008

PDZ – ASX Release Page 2 of 3
year, underground mining by long hole open stope or similar is the preferred mining method. Costs
are expected to be of the order of $55 per tonne mined including development costs.
Port storage and handling has not been finalized but is assumed to be USD25 per tonne of
concentrate and sea freight is assumed to be USD75 per tonne of concentrate.
The construction schedule assumes all environmental approvals and government licenses are
granted by February 2010. On this basis commissioning is expected in December 2010 and handover
in February 2011.

RESOURCE DRILLING

Resource drilling of the Main and Zed Lodes is expected to commence by the end of July. The
primary objective is to increase the high grade resource to approximately 2.5 million tonnes which
would allow for five years of high grade production.
The Gabbro Lode will also be targeted. The mineralisation here is of disseminated or replacement
type rather than the vein style of the other lodes and therefore may be indicating the presence of
stratiform mineralization at depth. Such mineralisation is likely to much more extensive that the vein
style of the other lodes.
The Company has previously reported copper results at Prairie Downs in the footwall to Main Lode.
Nineteen holes have intersected copper at greater than 0.5%, with the best results being: DDH6, 1.2
metres at 6.5% copper, 28g/t silver, DDH9, 1.5 metres at 2.7% copper, and PDD196 which
intersected 3.4 metres at 2.8% copper, 12.2g/t silver, including 0.9 metres at 6.4% copper, 28.2g/t
silver. This mineralisation will also be targeted with the objective of potentially defining an inaugural
copper resource.

EXPLORATION DRILLING

A total of five diamond drill holes have been completed at Costean Seven. The target was copper
mineralization outcropping at surface and in costeans and outcropping lead mineralisation. All holes
intersected widespread, sporadic copper, zinc, lead and silver mineralisation, in some cases over
substantial widths; however the source of the surface mineralisation has not been discovered. Assay
results are not yet available.
The geology is complex and drilling intersected rock types that have not been previously observed.
Alteration, particularly silicification, is extensive.
Drilling problems saw most holes not making target depths which lead to termination of the program.
RC drilling of Costean Seven and other copper prospects is planned for the September quarter in
conjunction with resource drilling.

OTHER PROJECTS

No fieldwork was completed on either the Coppermine Bore ,Longreach Well or Perenjori projects
during the quarter.

CORPORATE

At this time standard project finance comprising debt and equity is an expensive way for junior
companies to develop resource projects. Consequently, Prairie Downs Metals is seeking to use metal
contained in its resource to assist in financing development. Alternatives include a joint venture with
an end user or corporate partner, pre-payment from end user, off take with end users or traders,
premium share issue tied to metal rights.
PDZ – ASX Release Page 3 of 3
Initial discussions have already commenced with a number of parties and these are expected to
advance once the feasibility study has been circulated to interested parties.
At the end of June the Company had cash of $8.3 million. There are no plans at present to raise
further funds except as part of an overall package to finance project development.

Huang Chung

21-09-2008, 12:24 AM

My point being that we won't be in this market forever. The gamble is that they don't run out of cash before we emerge from this horror stretch.

I topped up yesterday because of the signs emerging from the US that could unclog the banking system. Maybe I've jumped the gun, maybe not.

Meanwhile, the little information that is currently available indicates that they are continuing to successfully deliniate their zinc/lead resource, and should be pushing towards that 2.5mt high grade ore target. I'm not sure if they're back drilling their copper targets again or not, but this could definitely give some zing to the shareprice if and when they can generate some good news.

There are a lot of negatives engulfing this stock at the moment, and the shareprice has been beaten down accordingly. Just a move back to a lousy 30c would give you between 50% and 60% return on the current 18.5c-20c range.....and it was 30c only a couple of weeks ago....

njat

22-09-2008, 09:29 AM

Huang Chung

22-09-2008, 11:53 AM

I tend to argree with Huang and have seriously been considered averaging down significantly by picking up some more at these prices. My worry is though with so much negative sentiment and credit crunch will these guys survive the next couple of years. I think if they survive the share price will eventually perform well and I am happy to wait. My fear is they are going to run out of cash and fall over. What is other peoples view on this ?

Hi Njat

I think you have hit the nail on the head....access to finance is the issue. Take a look at the last quarterly (YTD figures), and you'll see that they could undertake a similar amount of exploration as last year with current funds. They have also said that they are not currently considering a capital raising, other than as part of an ongoing package to get the mine established.

I would see the drilling they are doing over the remainder of the year as critical to their future. If they can prove up that 2.5mt high grade zinc/lead resource, they can start looking at financing the plant and working capital for on-going exploration. I would imagine the credit crunch has forced them to focus on proving up the zinc/lead resource, rather than the more exciting copper blue sky....bird in the hand and all that.

On Hot Copper, someone posted a supposed response from Alec Pismaris, which seemed to imply that maybe the market will take a bit more interest once the drilling results are released.....make what you want out of that.

foxysfolkfaced23

22-09-2008, 12:11 PM

yea i hope that the drilling results are released soon - on the 9th of july when they announced that the first drill hole at costean seven had mineralisation right down to 300m+ they estimated that assay results could be 6-8 weeks away - well we are nearly at 11 weeks and still no results presumably due to delays with assays ......hopefully not something else

it certainly has been a rough ride since that announcement - share price today currently 20% of the value (18.5c) on the 9th july (93c)

still holding though albeit stressfully

Huang Chung

22-09-2008, 12:18 PM

Njat...here is that Hot Copper post I was referring to. It was from the 'company', not Alec...my mistake.

PDZ is continuing with the current drilling program . The primary goal is to increase the size of the high grade resource to justify development
Progress by the drilling contractor (Mt Magnet Drilling )has been pleasing with the results to be released as they become available over the next 1-2 months depending on laboratory performance
The market sentiment for lead and zinc is currenty adverse and like other companies in the sector PDZ market capitalisation has fallen substantially
The directors believe the market capitalisation of PDZ does
not reflect the value of the project however investor demand for small to medium companies seeking to explore/develop base metals is curretly poor
The release of drilling results may refocus investor interest in PDZ
The Company maintains contact with it major shareholders wth all indicating their support and their intention to maintain their interests in PDZ.

I can't verify the comments, so take what you will from them.

Hey Foxy, it's a 'character building' ride, isn't it :confused:.

foxysfolkfaced23

22-09-2008, 12:42 PM

Hey Foxy, it's a 'character building' ride, isn't it .

sure is

like others have mentioned here i just hope they have enough cash to ride out the storm and keep adding to the resource base - i dont need the money now or anytime soon so current share price does not concern me - pdz can go up as quickly as it has gone down as has been proven over the past couple of years

Huang Chung

25-09-2008, 12:41 AM

Nice to see some optimism re-emerging in PDZ, closing today at 25.5c.....up more than 25% in the last three days off a very, very low base.

At this stage, no real selling evident before 40c, so hopefully the run up will continue.

Waiting impatiently for some drill results, for both lead/zinc and copper...surely can't be too far away now :rolleyes:.

FarmerGeorge

25-09-2008, 03:51 PM

Good on you for 'buying in gloom' HC. While I'm obviosuly still keen on PDZ may I suggest you take a few profits? In the interests of disclosure, while I'm still heavily invested in PDZ I took some out today on this recent surge.

Huang Chung

25-09-2008, 07:59 PM

FarmerGeorge

26-09-2008, 01:03 PM

Fair enough HC, if it's worth holding, it's worth holding plenty!

foxysfolkfaced23

03-10-2008, 01:48 PM

i suppose our former director is off loading his shares now that his resignation is announced............19c at the moment.

FarmerGeorge

03-10-2008, 06:29 PM

Wasn't aware a Director had resigned Foxy, care to elaborate?

soulman

03-10-2008, 09:03 PM

Hi FG

Yeah, I considered taking a quick profit on some or all of the 99,000 shares I picked up last week at 20/20.5c, but haven't acted upon it so far.

I'll probably hold all of them, even though I suspect the current run is likely over. My focus with PDZ from the very beginning has been with a long term outlook, and nothing has really changed that view.

The company has been quiet of late, but we know they've been doing more low risk drilling to firm up and expand the zinc/lead resource, so I might as well hold and wait for the company to announce some results.

I've got a lovely round number of shares now....so I'm pretty keen to keep that number intact.

Hindsight HC said that disposing half your stake in the 30's might be a prudent way to go and hence, here is your chance to pick them up now.

A sorry seller for 5000 shares at the close (valued at $1k) pushed the shares down more than 10%. Sometimes, you just don't get their motive or rational decision.

Huang Chung

03-10-2008, 11:05 PM

Hindsight HC said that disposing half your stake in the 30's might be a prudent way to go and hence, here is your chance to pick them up now.

A sorry seller for 5000 shares at the close (valued at $1k) pushed the shares down more than 10%. Sometimes, you just don't get their motive or rational decision.

Yeah, ol' Harry Hindsight is a very smart fellow. I didn't end up selling, so have watched those paper profits evaporate. But, I did sell my NMS holding and picked up another 100,000 PDZ shares between 25c and 22c yesterday and today.

We're basically back to the project being valued by the market at around $9-$10 million. Unsustainable in my view.

tricha

03-10-2008, 11:59 PM

Yeah, ol' Harry Hindsight is a very smart fellow. I didn't end up selling, so have watched those paper profits evaporate. But, I did sell my NMS holding and picked up another 100,000 PDZ shares between 25c and 22c yesterday and today.

We're basically back to the project being valued by the market at around $9-$10 million. Unsustainable in my view.

Hmm, u must have to much money :)

Huang Chung

04-10-2008, 12:35 AM

Yeah, if only!

T, PDZ can bounce hard, as we saw less than a forthight ago. While PPP sat motionless around 20c, PDZ went from 18.5c to 35c in a matter of a 2 or 3 days. OK, I didn't cash in my chips, but the opportunity certainly was there.

A relatively small outlay currently buys you a substantial chunk of the company.

- 5km of copper outcropping that is being valued at zip by the market.....5 diamond drill holes into these zones all mineralised (assays pending).

- 1.6m/t of high grade zinc/lead/silver.....2.5m/t will give them 5 years of high grade production (assays pending). Very good chance of achieving this. Mineralisation is at shallow depth, and is in the form of several 'stacked' lenses, which should result in a low extraction cost.

- roughly $6m in the bank (my estimate).

- $16m market cap.

Big risks for sure around financing and metal prices, but I do believe that, if you take a long term view, we'll work through these problems and there will be better days ahead. But, as I've said before, not one for the feint hearted......:eek:

tricha

04-10-2008, 11:41 PM

Hmm so PPP could take out PDZ for a lousy 16 million.

I'd be very disappointed if they did Huang, the supercycle is over, brought about by a black swan, "peak oil 2005"

Coal piling up at Chinese harbors on weak demand http://digg.com/img/badges/80x15-digg-badge-2.gif (http://www.chinamining.org/digg/submit.php?url=http://www.chinamining.org/News/2008-09-28/1222562930d17711.html)
(www.chinamining.org)
Updated: 2008-09-28 08:43
Counter: 237

China is seeing more and more coal pile up at major transport harbors due to a weakening demand for the fossil fuel.

An official with the Qinhuangdao harbor bureau said Friday, on condition of anonymity, that Qinhuangdao harbor in northern China recorded a coal pileup of 8.44 million tons as of Sept. 16. That is at least 3 million tons more than regular levels. He added, every day for the past two weeks, the surplus of coal has increased by 100,000 tons.

Qinhuangdao harbor is the largest coal transport site in China.

Its coal storage acts as a barometer of the coal market across thecountry.

The official said the harbor was only able to accommodate a coal pileup of 10 million tons.

A surplus of coal at major consumption are as is also increasing.

The Guangzhou harbor in southern China had about 2.2 million excesstons of coal as of Sept. 17. That's compared to a storage of 1.7million tons at the beginning of June.

According to Guangzhou Port Group, trading volume has decreasedsince July, with a monthly turnover of only 3 million tons. In May and June the group was turning over 4-million-tons.

Coal is also piling up for major coal consumers.

According to Xie Juchen, head of the fuel section of China Electricity Council, coal pileup was 19.62 million tons in July.

That's enough to meet a 10-day demand. At the beginning of September, the figure went up to 29.3 million tons, or enough for 15 days, Xie said.

Official data showed nationwide coal supplies in August were at 70.76 million tons. However, coal consumption was at 62.25 million tons, leaving 8.51 million tons to pile up.

Industry observers credited the mounting pileup to less demand.

For one, electricity enterprises used less coal during the Beijing Olympics and Paralympics because production was restricted, said Xie.

In the long term, however, global economic slowdown received the majority of the blame for the country's excess coal.

According to Wang Ling, a coal analyst with the United Metal Web,the slide of the economy squeezed demand for electricity, that from thermal power enterprises in particular.

Besides, Wang said, a relatively cool climate reduced demand for power this summer. He added, abundant rainfalls also ensured easier access to electricity generated by hydro power plants.

According to data provided by the National Bureau of Statistics, China generated 2.323 trillion kw of electricity in the first eight months of this year, a growth of 10.9 percent on the same period of last year.