BBG - Billabong

[Flying Goat]

Hi All,

Given this a blue chip I am sure there will be absolutely zero interest from this forum, but here goes anyway:

Billabong started out as a surfboard/wear company in Australia in the seventies and have grown into a very large Australian international lifestyle brand (just casual boardsports type stuff for snow/surf and skate enthusiasts etc as if any of you did not know already!) but they also do watches, wallets, boards, own many other strong brands such as Nixon watches which are category killers in the States), they have been massive in Australia / New Zealand for decades and continue to grow rapidly in the international market place especially America / Europe/ Asia. Will not go on too much, however what I like is:

+ They have a business model that generates 25% return on equity, this is extraordinary and looks set to continue

+ Are growing earnings at 15% to 20% per annum and look to continue doing that for many, many years in my opinion, the sales growth in America and Europe is running at above 30% per annum, and these markets have massive potential, continental Europe retail channels in this category are totally fragmented and Billabong are filling that gap through rolling out large format stores that include everything and are already proving highly successful and sustainable with sales of Euro 75 million in the first half if this financial year off less than thirty stores � this number is set to grow, is same story in the United States.

+ In Asia they are investing in buying out many of their franchisees and wholesale channels they can realize full margins over the long term and better control the integrity of the brand.

+ The brand equity is colossal as primary sponsors to world tour surfing contests and major snowboarding events etc etc..

+ They now have huge / wide reaching distribution channels across the world that they could continue building for many years to come � this is already proving an excellent outlet for other brands that they have bought.

+ It is not in an industry that is receiving the speculative attention at the moment such as other large caps, so although their is a price premium it is far from excessive and I believe genuinely reflects (or is too modest on) their quality and growth profile. Once again the strong Australian dollar could be a factor short term but should not really weigh on them over the long haul.

+ Financials are very healthy, although I agree the company is not super cheap. However, pondering long and hard and looking at other examples over time I also believe it is not expensive(very similar to Pumpkin Patch on which I made a great deal of money over the years).

+ I am also a big fan of strong consumer brands � it means a lot to be able to charge four times more for essentially the same crap t-shirt that was made China.

+ Sales this year will be well in excess of $1 billion Australian dollars and by my estimates 2008 earnings could easily be AUD $200 million � hence this is a very large company with market cap of 3.5 billion!

+ If the current growth sustains itself as looks likely then it should be trading at 16 to 17 times earnings by 2008 � which is modest for a business with the growth potential these guys have.

+ Large growth stocks tend to trade at premiums but as I have found if they are of that rare excellent quality on all counts then sometimes is worth taking the leap getting on board because such companies can grow almost indefinitely

+ Director Chairman recently bought >$800,000 of ordinary stock on market - great for one's confidence in my opinion!

+ They recently bought Amazon chain in New Zealand which is dominant over here, have been going to the stores over last few weekends and they pump, in fact my girlfriend ended up buying Billabong dress she thought it was great - they are doing an impressive job of leveraging the brand across different product types etc..

Anyhow, this is a big stock with daily turnover around $10,000,000 and lately the third largest American institutio

[Huang Chung]

Ye of little faith Flying Goat! :D

I've been looking at BBG over the last couple of days, pondering if it's a buy or not.

I'm about as far removed from the surf scene as you can get, so my understanding of the surf culture is somewhat lacking. However, I do realise that the Billabong brand has great 'cred' and is thus a strong franchise.

My only nagging concern is what's fashionable today is often 'uncool' tomorrow....remember Hang Ten [?]

The Billabong brand seems to be worn by everyone from stoned hippies to pre-teen schoolgirls...I always thought that the kids would never want to be seen dead in a brand that their old man or old lady was wearing!

So I'm obviously in need of some education. Do you see the brand enduring year in, year out FG [?]

[Flying Goat]

Hi HuangChang

Yep, that thought crossed my mind too, however having done quite a lot of reading on the life cycle of brands etc, for my own profession and out of interest, it is true that truly successful brands endure, they are not a result of what people think, but the gut feeling that people have about the a) product/service b) value proposition c) relativity to own self-concept. I am 32. I wore Billabong when I was 12, and also wear if from time to time now - the thing is, they are so deeply embedded in their market through sponsorship and have such an outstanding store format, great designs, array of products etc... that in my opinion they will continue to conquer their market and grow. People under estimate brand equity, and if you look at the numbers you cannot argue that Billabong is a truly global brand that people all over the world know - can you say that about many other ASX listed companies?? No discredit. If you look at PPL, great buisness and I hold quite a few, BBG is actually cheaper and on a steeper growth trajectory hence my post (and my picking up a few shares although I hold half as many as PPL). Anyhow - see you back in here in 10 years at $100 if they have not had a stock split by then, haha :)

[winner69]

Half price sale on .... BBG under $8 now

Even the best brands in the world suffer when the world stops spending

Still forecasting 20% plus revenue growth this year (mainly from acquisitions) which is still bloody good but this only translates to 10% eps growth cause of higher depreciation and interest costs.

What worries me is the comment that there will be negative eps growth in the first half which implies huge expectations for the second half.

Horribly exposed to global demand, margins under extreme pressure and any further fall in the $A (assumed to recover to 71 cents in their forecasts) only adds to the woes.

Last years eps was 86 cents ... add the 10% and you get 95 cents forecast .... so at 800 only on a pe of 8

Sounds cheap but the ebullient Mr O'neill didn't sound all that convincing when questioned by analysts the other day

Great company with great brands ...... but difficult times ...... and in a few years probably a great share to have again

[Huang Chung]

With the state of the US consumer, I'd be in no rush to buy.

I reckon this one could go under $5 sometime in the next 12 months.

[Dr_Who]

BBG is like all trends, it comes and it goes. It used to be cool to wear surf gear, but now I think the trend is more hip hop or whatever kids are into these days.

[ratkin]

Was in newquay cornwall during the english summer.
Was amazed to see virtually all of them wearing billabong gear.
Not only that but there was some minor australian celeb there (home and away?) he was parked in a combi in the main street giving out cans of fosters and signing autographs.
The UK is aussie mad due to all the soaps they seem to enjoy watching. Surf culture is huge there at the moment. Although i dare say the cities may be different , the world surfing champs were in newquay at the time which may of had something to do with it

[Huang Chung]

Did a bit of a Billabong survey at the shops this morning. Heaps of Billabong gear, from teens to blokes in their 50's. Amazing how this brand seems to transcend the generations. Will the Billabong thing ever wear thin, or will it keep going, decade after decade?

Wifey and I even bought a pink Billabong back pack for a pre-teen relly.....(yes, a girl).

Quicksilver factory outlet was also doing a roaring trade.....it is that time of year I guess :rolleyes:.

[marknz88]

Did a bit of a Billabong survey at the shops this morning. Heaps of Billabong gear, from teens to blokes in their 50's. Amazing how this brand seems to transcend the generations. Will the Billabong thing ever wear thin, or will it keep going, decade after decade?

Wifey and I even bought a pink Billabong back pack for a pre-teen relly.....(yes, a girl).

Quicksilver factory outlet was also doing a roaring trade.....it is that time of year I guess :rolleyes:.

I work part time at a chain surf store that is owned by billabong (they bought out the original owners 2-3 years ago).

The amount of billabong clothing we carry in store via all the brands billabong distributes under the GSM brand (element, kustom, honolua, tigerlilly, von zipper, nixon and excel) is huge. It would make up at least 75% of the clothing in our stores nation wide.

Now personally I'm not a fan of billabong clothing directly, but its other brands that it has acquired are ok and like said above cater from pre teens right through to middle aged people. And from having the perspective of actually putting through these sales, I can say in out store at least, GSM brands make up the majority of sales on a daily basis.

Im definitely looking for an entry point sometime into the future as in the long term I believe billabong will be a good company to hold as it expands globally (I think they are planning to open alot more stores in asia, I think they have gone from 15-28 stores in japan alone in 2 years?, as well as opening 6 new stores in NZ alone this previous year) and in the last year it has already snapped up another two companies excel wetsuits and sector 9 skateboards.

[Huang Chung]

Thanks Mark...its always good to get the goss from someone in the know. I still can't see the need to rush into BBG, the next 12 months look to be very tough on the consumer.

As an aside, my one and only bit of direct retail exposure at the moment is The Reject Shop (TRS), who will probably do OK in this environment as consumers look to stretch a dollar.

[yogi-in-oz]

Thanks Mark...its always good to get the goss from someone in the know. I still can't see the need to rush into BBG, the next 12 months look to be very tough on the consumer.

As an aside, my one and only bit of direct retail exposure at the moment is The Reject Shop (TRS), who will probably do OK in this environment as consumers look to stretch a dollar.

:)

Hi guys,

BBG ... from a techie's view, we will be looking at some heavy-duty downside
in 2009, particularly around 20-26032009 and then looking for an extreme low,
between 21092009-04112009 ..... !~!

..... first signs of recovery may emerge soon after, around 06112009, when
some minor and positive news may be expected ..... :)

Merry Christmas and happy trading in 2009.

have a great weekend

paul

:)

=====

[Scuffer]

Billabong are a great brand and like all great brands go through ups and downs they will pull through this trough and the sp will grow again, anyone remember the resurgence of Levis in the late 70's early 80's and what you paid for a pair of 501's. In europe they are into the surf culture even in the inland cities some of the clothing of their range are cutting edge and of good quality that is why they will be around for a long time Billabong will make a comeback as far as the shareprice goes its the world wide slump that has caused the drop, I personally own a lot of their clothing and don't even surf anymore.

[winner69]

A not too bad announcement but shareprice hammered

But Liz will be well pleased that that they are WELL POSITIONED for future growth

If shareprice goes a bit lower from here an even better return when the growth starts coming through

Keep on eye on those charts

[winner69]

Punters will be starting to get a bit peeved with all these downgrades

Maybe their day as a glamour stock are over and they have just become a run of the mill thing

[winner69]

Love it when analysts do their job properly and print something that the company does not like ... bastards.
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/companies/analysts-fear-billabong-is-heading-for-a-debt-wipeout/story-fn91v9q3-1226160660185

Where's there smoke there is usually fire and obviously BBG do have some serious problems coming up .... be interested in how they manage them

In the meantime market sentiment is measured on a chart (and not fundamnetals) and yesterday it was all pretty positive

Still on the watch list ... maybe money to be made here one day

[percy]

[

Still on the watch list ... maybe money to be made here one day[/QUOTE]

Yeah Right.!!!!

[winner69]

[

Still on the watch list ... maybe money to be made here one day

Yeah Right.!!!![/QUOTE]

Percy .... maybe one day? ..... but I fear that day may be some time off

You can only piss the market off so many times and I think BBG have done their chips this time .... and has become a paraih of the ASX

As they say in surfing ..... wipe out today

Then again the further it goes down the faster it might rise if things do eventually come right .... yeah right eh Percy

[percy]

Yeah Right.!!!!

Percy .... maybe one day? ..... but I fear that day may be some time off

You can only piss the market off so many times and I think BBG have done their chips this time .... and has become a paraih of the ASX

As they say in surfing ..... wipe out today

Then again the further it goes down the faster it might rise if things do eventually come right .... yeah right eh Percy[/QUOTE]

Yeah Right.!!! You are right on the money again winner69 .!!!!! A long flat summer ,with no surf.!!

[drillfix]

My my~!

BBG taking a full on xmas whooping today and completely accelerating the downtrend it has been locked into it seems.

Here is an intraday chart:

BBG daily & intraday > http://www.imageurlhost.com/images/9um528s61p19iun8u_BBGintraday.png



Drawn on the chart are some drop expectations whereby I would gather $2.00 eventually be a hit zone for entry or bounce. Yet I would also watch the lower left bottom 60 min chart both MACD divergence and MFI potential upturn.

Caution as always as everything that was Blue and is a Chip, is taking a copping today though this is extended.

Steel gloves recommended for any bounce trades.

[drillfix]

Anybody watching this upcoming close? A real battle going on here atm and kinda glad I missed my $2.0x entrry as you need to be made of rubber or something to endure today's move.

Will post a close chart little later for those interested.

[drillfix]

Hi folks,

Well, BBG will not excite any long term holders and apologies to anybody who holds long term as my comments are from an intraday trading perspective and medium term forecast as well.



Quick chart of BBG again with 5, 15, 60 min respectively and daily with DOM ladder shown in the pic below:

BBG daily & intraday > http://www.imageurlhost.com/images/smi39764eyz2i6n90wc3_BBGintraday.png


It seems there may have been some short covering at the EOD as I had an order in at the low of 2.02c which for 10 seconds I thought was going to get hit, but short covering came into buy huge numbers of the stock.

The over all day had one partial relief rally which also could have been some early short sellers covering or retail investors covering or traders believing its a bottom. All the action can easily be shown on the intraday charts to the left with 3 main trading zones marked out accordingly.

Problem was for BBG was the relief never got the bounce to continue which is negative for the furture also, yet this can change with global markets offering relief of sentiment, information, news etc, however that would be something I would not count on.


BBG traded a huge number today being 24.987 million shares an completed 10,797 trades to a value of $57,360,173 million dollars.

The 52 week high has been @ $9.07 & the 52 week low is now set today @ $2.02

As the stock closed 1c above the low the indicators clearly support that close with MFI broken below the average 60min low and Williams %R also showing oversold and RSI and OBV clearly to all time lows with the stock.

MACD hists and signals on both 60 min and daily charts also seem to suggest more room for downside.

Caution on any stock like BBG today that drops 44% in one move suggests clearly the sector took a hammering and the market is geared up to show no mercy what so ever to any stock in any sector that does not live up to expectation.

Well, good luck to any holders out there or anybody whom had a successful scalp as that alone would have been a hard earned trade.

Also, for the sake of any long term holders out there, that a eventual bounce can be had to offer those who hold at least some relief.

Cheers~!

[Financially dependant]

Wow...cliffs and lemmings come to mind

[drillfix]

FD, Soulman, others,

Anybody catch the knife today?

In for a bounce trade @ 1.715 current vwap is 1.77 so a bit of room to move today with a 19c spread.

[h2so4]

I put an order in Drilly, we are now at something like 65% less than book value??????????????

[drillfix]

Hi H2,

Dont really know what the book value is currently, but I am just visiting for the day, or maybe to the end of the week depending on how or if Shorters cover, global futures show some green and some of the indicators can turn.

We have a MACD histogram positive divergence with all other indicators showing completely oversold, although it can remain this way for some time if need be, but I think we will get a bounce so I am keeping an eye on the MFI for a break upward of the previous low, in which I may add to my position.

Had thought we may have seen a more sweep up and down than what we currently are seeing and sometimes will wait for HK to open or after lunch.

Either way, I have a stop in place anyhow so lets see how things pan out.

Hope you get that order filled mate :)

[h2so4]

Basiclly I think BBG is worth more dead than alive, I see value here, keep me posted Drilly.

[drillfix]

H2, a Breakup upward of the 13EMA has been done on the 5 min BBG chart.

Just need to maintain a few more candles, so will find out in 15 mins..lol

looking for a test of the 15 min 13ema @ 1.83 which may be a good exit for me.

[h2so4]

Yeah, while I posted, need a faster computer LOL.

[drillfix]

Yeah, while I posted, need a faster computer LOL.

Well, I had one of those for ya H2 but its now sold.

Will be selling my new Quad Dell in few months though :)


Back to BBG, keeping an eye on the 15 min 13 ema line which is now being tested. the 5 min chart is upward move continues and depending I may hold, depending on futures or at least to EOD.

Will post a chart later.

[drillfix]

Ok, I dont really like posting intraday charts that I am trading as usually by the time you post them, there is movement.

Here is a intraday.

BBG midday'ish intraday > http://www.imageurlhost.com/images/9bo2crnhozgn96t06a1x_BBGintra.png

Shown on the bottom of the 60 min is the MACD histogram divergence along with a MFI bounce potentially getting set to move upward. Any continuation through the resistance line on the MFI would be buy or add to position signal for me atm.

Also the 13ema being rode upward on the 5 min chart is positive however the rejection on the 15 min chart to move upward on the 13ema may be negative, but only after a 2nd failure or test, or if a break upward then this will be considered positive.

The daily indicators are not to be watched, (IMO) today as that is a distraction for the trade or the added entry or even exit depending on which way this keeps going.

Also below is our futures (SNFE) which may favour an up move of our XAO which may cause a minor relief rally offering some potential momentum to the current trade.

SNFE intraday > http://www.imageurlhost.com/images/k5igjkorok4itb367v7s_SNFEintra.png

The upper chart shows price over the 13ema and the 60 min lower chart holding temp support and also about to offer some MACD histogram and signal crossover to positive, which is great short term assistance.

As usual, things could change and I have no expectation except to read and act upon what the chart is telling me.

Also watching the global futures which seem neutral to positive just which may also help.

Cheers~!

[drillfix]

H2, I now confirm I am looking for a 2nd entry prior to EOD.

Will put an order at the 13ema (1.80'is) on the 15 min chart as price has now risen above that indicator.

Of course, if I can get in, but I think the move will retest the high of the day.

A bullish EOD daily candle as a doji or hammer, or morning star will / should / may confirm a bottom also so if it does it may be a hold.

[h2so4]

Got in at $1.80

[drillfix]

Good stuff there H2.

A couple of fake outs on support at 1.80 but typical shake out, meanwhile the EMA ride up continues slowly but surely.

This is a EOD decision maker butI feel we will close on the high at least or even above (2.00 could also happen imo).

What a candle that would make to trigger some signals :)

[h2so4]

Yeah took your guide this time. I'll watch with interest. Thanks Drilly

[drillfix]

No worries H2, but getting partially concerned now with the breach of the 5 min 13ema, one more candle continuation below it and I may punch out of this trade.

Although providing we stay above 1.80.x then we should be ok, yet as always, time will tell.

[drillfix]

H2,

I would watch out in the last 5 min's to gauge the direction, or even on close if you choose to be in watch the numbers to which way the trade will go on close.

Sometimes there could either be massive buying, or the opposite of course being, massive dumping.

This will determine the direction tomorrow potentially, although, I feel the stock will maintain support at 1.80 at least or perhaps even 50% of the spread which is being 1.795

Finger on the pulse and good luck with whatever you choose.

[drillfix]

H2, I am now Out~!

[h2so4]

Me toOOOOOOOOOOOOOO ha

[drillfix]

Better safe than sorry there H2.

Stopped out for me, but at least stopped out with a small profit.

Should have listened to myself and automated my exit on the 5 min 13ema 3 candle below routine.
ahh well, guess I better keep reminding myself to keep on reminding myself or keep practicing...lol



Here are some stats for the close of today for BBG for those interested.

Open 1.800
High 1.890
Low 1.700

Volume 41,853,424
Trades 10,946
Value 74,534,007

Monday's Short Capital issued: 1.33% of stock being 3,413,634

Tomorrow is another day so lets see how it goes.

[drillfix]

Hey H2,

Not much of a spread for BBG today at all, or as of right now its been a 7.5c spread, unlike the 20c previously.

Had an order in for 76c but never got hit. Thought about leaving it but just canned it and think I will pass on BBG today.

Was fun while it lasted but will monitor it for bigger spread and randomly jump in when it suits.


ps:

Seems that as soon as I made this post the Spread changes to open up wider.

Will be watching still.

[drillfix]

Ahhhh, a little late on the breakout if your out there H2.

Was researching another stock and turn my head and now this is over $1.90

Looks like the gap up to $2.00 will get filled, but not sure if it will be today or whenever.

[h2so4]

What can I say Drilly.

Well at least the idea was right.

pff..tt

[drillfix]

Thats it H2.

It just is what it is, and it also could have swung the other way as well, but thats the market for ya.

I dont think I am too serious on anything at this time of year as it will either prop you up, or then smack ya back down like a tennis ball.

Had a Gap get filled feeling about this stock the other day though but just never thought today was it, or the day to come close.

ps:

Starting to eye up TWO now as that also previously had a huge fall.

[h2so4]

Gap get feeling?????????????

Haven't heard that one before. I might look out for it next time :)

[drillfix]

Yeah H2,

Many times when a stock like BBG gaps down, and then gaps down a 2nd time, that Gap will have an eventual need to get filled. (more often when occurring near lows and highs)

Basically called filling the gap. It may take a day, a week, a month, but the gap usually gets filled to compensate for possible market behavior getting it wrong or thinking it may have got it wrong whilst over doing a sell off (or Rally so be careful).

Hope that helps anyway :)

[drillfix]

H2, it appears the gap has been filed upon open and then fell off the cliff.

This gap may now act as resistance but IMO, the stock is trading exactly as it should once it completes is task, and shows a decline to create a spread for today.

Missed the big part of the trade by not riding the it up to the gap fill but thats just trading I guess, it happens.

[winner69]

drillie ... you playing around with KMD today .... reasonable volumes

[drillfix]

Hi winner,

Unfortunately no though how about you?

I got trade in BBG again today then had set my stop and limits to go do some consulting of which now I find that my stop got hit and now out for a small loss, but ahh well.

Will have a look at the chart of KMD though, after market close.

[drillfix]

drillie ... you playing around with KMD today .... reasonable volumes


Yikes Winner,

Scare cliffhanger retails stocks all falling off the mountains it seems hey. The whole sector is being completely trashed.

A slight divergence in the 60 min MACD histogram but a little scared to go into a stock like this after such relief rally ends as it sat for the good par of the day lunch time on wards near the low with no where to go.

Meaning, if you missed the bounce trade, then you completely missed.

I caught a nice entry on BBG today and just missed my order getting hit, only to instead get stopped out.

Ahh well, 50% batting average on BBG so far, will keep an eye on KMD though.

[h2so4]

I think shorters will trash these stocks in coming days, weeks, and months.

Not keen on any of them.

[drillfix]

Agree H2, they are in the driving seat that is for sure.


Taking a look at KMD, and having saw what BBG done, I think KMD will now have a tendency to test another low to they psychological $1.00 test, but not exactly sure when, but it goes to show the mentality of the market at this time of year anyway.

So I would be bold to say that there is more to fall with the Short's you speak of with KMD, or BMG

[drillfix]

Well, I finally got around to running a Pitchfork over Billabong to show the locked downward trend that it has been in for quite a while now as follows:


BBG daily and weekly > http://www.imageurlhost.com/images/sge9km9tdsulpkyxfm58_Billabong.png

As you can see, there have been a few incidentals whereby a few fake outs occur with price escaping the forks, but then only magnetically become dragged back in again.

What concerns me about BBG atm is the not only week indicators, like RSI, OBV oversold Williams etc, but the Weekly with no support what so ever and also, the weekly chart offering only downside showing a further break down of MACD histogram and signal lines to and in the negative side, also with a smashed OBV and very weak RSI.

Caution when trying to pick a long on this or other retailers as no doubt you will already know this.

Fluctuation's may occur however what is obvious to me, is no matter how well something seems to may want to bounce back, it more than likely remain within the confine of the Pitchfork, unless a new sharp delcine completely breaks out and then a new Fork will start (OR) they may just expand to the outer Median Lines or inner Median lines, but less of the babble and back to the obvious, which is Caution all round.

[drillfix]

Your not wrong with that KW.

Was more or less pointing out for those whom daytrade etc.

Not a bad idea on the property trusts, although not all are short-able for the sake of being short-able, as in, they have to be the list of short equities list, and apparently sometimes they only have so much stock available to offer for short and if you dont get a position early then there is no stock to use to short.

Ahh well, an easy day pre-xmas so I cant see myself doing much today.

How about yourself KW, much on the go or are you cash out atm?

[soulman]

Have you looked at RUM KW? It's a REE stock with JORC that have been an interest to investors/traders recently.

Anyway, RE: retail stock, now we can see why JBH was the most shorted stock in the ASX when they were over $15. I see further falls in KMD, BBG, MYR and JBH. All will be revealed when they report in Feb next year.

[drillfix]

Not really sure how they can call a boxing day sale a xmas eve day sale.

Guess there has to be a 1st for everything.

ps:
How typical of myer though, even its share price finished at $1.99 LOL

The ole under 2 bucks type of trick. :)

[drillfix]

Up Up and not sure if its away, but it sure is a large Gap Up.

Opens at $2.80 with a low of $2.48, and as I type $2.65

Anybody buy it and hold under $1.80 ???

Take over talks in motion as well I hear.

[h2so4]

Nope, but it is one of my comp picks.:)

[drillfix]

Nope, but it is one of my comp picks.:)


LOL H2~!

Well that will add another 46% to your other 4 stocks to tally you upward in the comp. Well done H2 :)

[winner69]

Wow .... below a buck now ...how the might fall but got some more cash and thats good

Didn't they turn down $3 plus a little while ago - be some pissed off people now methinks

[winner69]

This lady gets it .....

"Every single company is coming out with the begging bowl, investors are getting fed up," said Macquarie Equities division director Lucinda Chan, referring to a rush of share sales in recent weeks.


Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/business/billabongs-market-value-halves-after-shakeup-20120625-20xcu.html#ixzz1ylzd9y7I

[winner69]

A comment under an article in the SMH

Billabong is a relic of the past, well on its way to oblivion. It might linger around to pay its debts but as far as shareholders are concerned the company is as good as gone. The only good thing that could come out of the company for shareholders is perhaps a discount card to purchase the clothing stock before they hand it over free to the Salvos.
Maybe at 10 cents it's worth a punt.


Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/business/who-will-pounce-on-billabong-first-20120625-20xeu.html#ixzz1ym1C8pPi

[winner69]

And nurseroddass gets all agitated about Fairfax reported ...does it really matter ...heaps down the gurgler anyway .....where did all those zillions go ..silly me, they never existed did they


"Shares plunged 50% to below the issue price"? Check your facts.
Billabong pre-raising: $1.83
6 for 7 rights at $1.02
This makes the TERP $1.46
The shares are 7% below the issue price. The shares are 35% down on the TERP, which is a more realistic evaluation of the facts given that the company raised 86% of its capital base at a 44.3% discount.
Please avoid sensationalist headlines.


Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/business/who-will-pounce-on-billabong-first-20120625-20xeu.html#ixzz1ym1u1PvW

[JBmurc]

Been buying up from 95c wasn't long ago TPG wanted to takeover BBG for $3 talk round predators are lurking

[JBmurc]

good buying here if you keen on doubling your money this year

http://www.totaltrader.com.au/11089/global-prime-billabong-asxbbg-buy-recommendation/

[JBmurc]

There is also strong talk that Billabong will be taken over in the next few weeks.

http://www.businessday.com.au/business/boards-must-accept-blame-on-debt-row-20120701-21ayi.html

"But David Jones will be one of many retailers that will face takeover scrutiny in the next few months. Others believed to be in the sights of predators include Billabong and Pacific Brands. Most retailers in Australia have missed the boat in terms of embracing online competition and are now suffering the consequences.

Overseas competitors and private equity operators who need to spend some of their pre-committed funds this year are on the prowl. "

http://www.smh.com.au/business/bizarre-nonbid-puts-focus-on-djs-real-value-20120702-21ca5.html?skin=text-only

[JBmurc]

Don't know if anyone else is watching/buying BBG but I'm confident and buying big at these levels is going be a smart move... Macquarie have been buying up BBG once again MQG are tpgs advisers....and we know TPG wanted to buy the lot for 3.30......MQG buying them for TPG while there cheap ......hoping I can get some more .....imho $1.80 -$2 bid coming very soon

[JBmurc]

Billabong shares take off as turnover jumps July 6, 2012 - 4:06PM

A late spurt has seen Billabong shares rocket as much as 14 per cent as investors snapped up the battered stock.

The surf retailer saw turnover jump to more than 9.1 million - twice the average turnover in the past year. With minutes to go to the close, Billabong was up 14 cents to $1.18, with the percentage gain making it the bigger gainer among the top 200 shares.

Ric Spooner, chief market analyst at CMC Markets, said it's unclear what was driving Billabong's share price.

One catalyst, though, may have been yesterday's ASX announcement that Macquarie Group had bought 23.9 million Billabong shares, making it a substantial shareholder.

"The fact that [Billabong] has come down so far and so fast... often when they do correct, the correction can be fast as the market tends to reappraise things," Mr Spooner said.

Rumours have circulated for several months that private equity companies including TPG, KKR and Archer, have been eyeing off Billabong, whose value has nose-dived from $17 five years ago to $5 less than a year ago. It sank as low as 96 cents last month.

Billabong's share price has swung wildly during a wretched year in which the surf brand has been hit by a weak retail climate, misguided strategy and management upheaval.

Billabong has been late to embrace the internet, and its leaders over-invested on real estate. In the last six months the retailer has shed its chairman, Ted Kunkel, and sacked its chief executive of 10 years, Derek O'Neill, replacing him with former Target boss Laura Inman.

Shareholders have called for the replacement of Billabong's founder, Gordon Merchant, who made the costly mistake of rejecting a private equity offer at $3.30 in February.

Mr Merchant has recently back-peddled, telling investors he felt "bad" for his error, and opened the door for a new, and presumably much lower, takeover bid.


Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/business/billabong-shares-take-off-as-turnover-jumps-20120706-21lym.html#ixzz1zox3KSSB

[ratkin]

Good work Jbmurc , fortune favours the brave

[JBmurc]

Good work Jbmurc , fortune favours the brave

yeah is looking good quite a few large 500k+ buys going through today ...will try and get a few more monday

[Corporate]

JB - any idea how many shares will be on issue post recapitalisation?

[JBmurc]

JB - any idea how many shares will be on issue post recapitalisation?

got off HC----
The last indicative offer was $3.30 x 260m shares = $858m + debt $600m = EV 1,458m.
A new future bid of $2 x 480m shares = $960m + debt $100m = EV 1,060m.

[JBmurc]

Shares in Billabong International Limited (ASX:BBG) jumped to Friday’s best performer in the top 200, one day after Macquarie Group Limited (ASX:MQG) revealed it had bought a 5.8 per cent interest in the surfwear retailer. According to Bloomberg Australia’s largest investment bank accounted for 26.3 per cent of Billabong buying on Friday. Fairfax Media speculates Macquarie was buying on behalf of a possible suitor and not trading on behalf on a strategic investor. Shares in Billabong International jumped 12.5 per cent on Friday, finishing the week at $1.17.

[NOCASH]

Shares in Billabong International Limited (ASX:BBG) jumped to Friday’s best performer in the top 200, one day after Macquarie Group Limited (ASX:MQG) revealed it had bought a 5.8 per cent interest in the surfwear retailer. According to Bloomberg Australia’s largest investment bank accounted for 26.3 per cent of Billabong buying on Friday. Fairfax Media speculates Macquarie was buying on behalf of a possible suitor and not trading on behalf on a strategic investor. Shares in Billabong International jumped 12.5 per cent on Friday, finishing the week at $1.17.

I bought in at 1.145, hopefully to make a quick buck to repay my student loan debt.

[JBmurc]

I bought in at 1.145, hopefully to make a quick buck to repay my student loan debt.

yes I brought more at 1.125 ...can't believe the sellers today ..only 5 months ago BBG turned down $3.30 per share ...even with the heap of new shares BBG is on sale ..TPG should be soaking them up while holders are happy to give them away(which is what I think MQG have been doing)

[JBmurc]

Some very shortsighted S/H round today going from the E/V from the TPG group take over offer
=1.48billion(i.e including the debt)

Now we have 480mill shares @ 1.03 =494mill + 100mill debt =594mill

has BBG done that poorly over the last 150days to be worth 891mill less than the offer Gordan(founder and largest S/H)turned down ????

Good overview of BBG
http://www.buysellsignals.com/1021286

[Stranger_Danger]

JB - sometimes it isn't just about the dollars.

If I hit on a girl I like, and she decides she doesn't like me, that's fine.

If she comes back 150 days later because several guys have taken her for a test drive, a few others have said no, and she decides she is more interested in my offer because it is the only one going, am I likely to be flattered?

I know financial affairs shouldn't be as petty as the above. Strangely, I've found that this sometimes isn't the case - after all, we're still dealing with humans at the end of the day.

[Halebop]

JB - sometimes it isn't just about the dollars.

If I hit on a girl I like, and she decides she doesn't like me, that's fine.

If she comes back 150 days later because several guys have taken her for a test drive, a few others have said no, and she decides she is more interested in my offer because it is the only one going, am I likely to be flattered?

I know financial affairs shouldn't be as petty as the above. Strangely, I've found that this sometimes isn't the case - after all, we're still dealing with humans at the end of the day.

...sometimes you can get in bed with the wrong person too.

TPG backed Washington Mutual a short time before their Bankruptcy and Harrahs just as the recession imploded their debt financed earnings so you'd want to know which end of the qualitative spectrum this deal was to them?

While I wouldn't pick BBG to go broke it's far from certain that they are at bottom of cycle yet.

[JBmurc]

JB - sometimes it isn't just about the dollars.

If I hit on a girl I like, and she decides she doesn't like me, that's fine.

If she comes back 150 days later because several guys have taken her for a test drive, a few others have said no, and she decides she is more interested in my offer because it is the only one going, am I likely to be flattered?

I know financial affairs shouldn't be as petty as the above. Strangely, I've found that this sometimes isn't the case - after all, we're still dealing with humans at the end of the day.

we will see ...85% of shares are held by 20 individual investors that have average paid prices much higher than today's
a P/E 5-6 yield-? (maybe not another for 2012 but should see a divvie return next year 6c+ etc)
-After the fully back cap raising + Nixon sale-- BBG will go from 600mill to 100mill in gross debt
-Assuming no further deterioration in trading conditions, FY13 EBITDA is currently expected to be in excess of pro forma FY12 EBITDA, which is anticipated to be between $83 million and $88 million

[Halebop]

-Assuming no further deterioration in trading conditions...

This is the 88 million dollar question.

[Hoop]

I bought in at 1.145, hopefully to make a quick buck to repay my student loan debt.

Yes even with BBG in a severe downtrend with no medium term buy signals it is still possible to make a quick buck.
EXCEPT..you use your investment disciplines and apply a strategy...do not rely on your emotions...or..your thoughts based on emotion.. Hint:..Look for Buy and sell triggers on past repeating Group's investment/trading behaviours.

Eliminate those emotions Hope Optimism and Stubbornness driven by Greed... BBG steep decline attracts emotions ...the emotional attitude that Mr Market has it all wrong and I'm in as it Fundamentally can't fall any further .....technically... emotional attitude buy ins often fail hence this wise quote "EMOTION KILLS!!!" FAIL

Investors who are powered up by by Greed attempt to find and buy in at or near the "bottom"....hence this other wise quote "Man who picks bottoms ends up with sh1tty fingers".


OK I did mention you can make a profit from falling share prices.

I did a MA30 strategy with Mainfreight 2007 -2009. MA30 hardly works well individually but I observed that it did for a period of time with MFT....aha!! an opportunity presenting itself:).
Quote from my Post (see MFT page 19) (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?760-MFT/page19&highlight=mainfreight) and how I did it...I made a substantial amount of money but didn't make as much as I could've as I posted the theoretical possibility (%) in my post....."At the end of trade 8 that $7800 has turned into $14780... +89% profit during a Bear market cycle on a share with had lost nearly 2/3's of its share value ( 810c high to 340c low).... Damn good eh"

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
BBG using the Dead Cat Strategy.

All steep drops raises the possibility of a dead cat bounce (DCB) chart feature event. Remember a DCB is an interrupted correctional pause in an ongoing steep downtrend or Fall...DCB is not a bottoming event....so mentality do not think about the bottoming event.
Buy in when the fall is arrested sell out at the last historical support (now resistance) point fell through (see Chart). This long term chart makes it look easy but on a day to day basis finding a buy in point is difficult. Therefore you need to know very well how a DCB event works including contingency actions (e.g setting stops just in case a bounce fails to materialise) start here http://thepatternsite.com/dcb.html then go on to Google and learn.
Everything is a risk...the bad news is that I've only discovered this regular event and have not traded on this BBG opportunity and I will not be...why?? because BBG has fallen through the floor (no history of lower prices) and I can't draw any historical S&R lines thereby making life more risky in finding a DCB buy in point....My Key discipline rule is to only invest on 70+% to succeed decisions or minimal downside risks.....BBG has too many sudden gap downs for me to stomach.

JBMurc....all the best.

Current price $1.05 at time of posting

http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/BBGBillabong10072012.png

[ratkin]

Cant call Muncs entry a fail unless you know his reasons for entry. If he bought in on the grounds that in six months time it would be a bargain then its too early to call a fail.
If he bought in for a short term profit then it is a fail, although 1.14 to 1.05 hardly a disaster

Sometimees emotional investing can work , just asked all those who snapped up air New Zealand back in 2003? when it looked like they were going under. Im not brave enough to take a punt on BGG but the fat lady not singing yet.

[Hoop]

Cant call Muncs entry a fail unless you know his reasons for entry. If he bought in on the grounds that in six months time it would be a bargain then its too early to call a fail.
If he bought in for a short term profit then it is a fail, although 1.14 to 1.05 hardly a disaster

Sometimees emotional investing can work , just asked all those who snapped up air New Zealand back in 2003? when it looked like they were going under. Im not brave enough to take a punt on BGG but the fat lady not singing yet.

True Ratkin.... JB Murc entry at this new bottom has not failed yet under any reason. (except using a very short term in and out strategy and realising a small acceptable loss)...

Agree...We don't know JB's BBG investment Strategy and we don't know his contingency plans so we can not judge if his recent investment has merit or not....yet!

However using a general simple investment strategy (as most people do) ... you don't buy a stock during its downtrending action..you wait until it stops. Patience is still a virtue...eh? Ratkin.:).

"...Sometimes emotional investing works..."...yeah of course it can sometimes work, but often it is an undisciplined buy in at the wrong time, sitting on it hoping it will come right until the frustration reaches a climax, then a "relief sell out" again at the wrong time....sound familar huh??
How many times have we heard a frustrated investor say "watch the share price go up now that I sold out today"

Ratkin...don't confuse Gut-feel investing with emotional investing...Many old experienced investors subconsciously analyze using past experiences, retained historical data and other memories..Gut feel is often an analyzed end product...a bit like a mental mix between FA & TA

[ratkin]

Although it is in a downtrend , and the price hasnt been here before so cant draw lines of support etc, there could be a case for using 1.00 as a support line , and buying around these levels. Hard to imgaine it going below 1.00 without a fight

[soulman]

Although it is in a downtrend , and the price hasnt been here before so cant draw lines of support etc, there could be a case for using 1.00 as a support line , and buying around these levels. Hard to imgaine it going below 1.00 without a fight

First of all, in the ST, the purpose for the investment banker for BBG cap raising right now is to get the raising through at 102. As many applicant as they can. This mean it could run up to 115 again before 17th Jul closing date.

In the LT, anything is possible. T/O, buyout or more falls.

JB has sold a few for profits already, I think.

[JBmurc]

For a start my overall average for the 160,000 BBG shares is 1.03 ...At the very least I've got a lower average price than 95%+ of Shareholders (Top20 hold 85%) ....So I'm happy there overall

Yes Hoop if I only invested via T/A I'd be waiting till the downtrend was ended with a good solid breakout to the upside from recent events in BBG history this would most likely come from a Take-over offer or the likes of MQG continue to accumulate .....

But I'm a F/A investor that thinks BBG will be a great Short term trade and a great diverse away from my Resource stocks I usually invest in...

what I know at this stage //

-9.5% of BBG shares are short sold(next minute Trading halt T.O offer)
-The 225mill placement is fully underwritten @ 1.02
-TPG tried to buy BBG @ 3.30 but was turned down by founder/biggest holder Gordon Merchant,(he now states he will accept sub $4)
-3.30 equates to 2.60 at present diluted share price
-Founder Gordon Merchant, will stump up with some 30mill for more shares @ 1.02 (if sold for 2.30ish will make he a cool 40mill )
-Business split is said to be 50-50 in whole sale & retail . Wholesale brands include Billabong, VonZipper, Element, Nixon, Tigerlily, Kustom, Dakine, Sector 9, RVCA, Matix, DVS, Xcel, Honolua, Palmers and Network Surf.
-the brand valentino has just been bought out by a fund at 30 times earnings for $721M AUD (BBG is round 5)
-they currently own around 600 retail stores and two online direct ecommerce websites Surfstich and Swell.com
-BBG debt will decrease by 400mill thanks to the half sale of Nixon & CR
-spec news of multiple interested parties i.e Nike

[Hoop]

Thanks JB for sharing your insight

[ratkin]

Their brands all very trendy , appealing to the fickle yoof market. Big question is have they lost the kids?
Four years ago i attended the newquay boardmasters event in cornwall,(massive surfing festival) i was amazed at how many of the kids were wearing the gear.
Will be there in three weeks time , will let you know if that still the case

Anyway here is someone who agrees with jbmurc
http://seekingalpha.com/article/714571-billabong-strong-retail-brands-in-turmoil

[h2so4]

Their brands all very trendy , appealing to the fickle yoof market. Big question is have they lost the kids?
Four years ago i attended the newquay boardmasters event in cornwall,(massive surfing festival) i was amazed at how many of the kids were wearing the gear.
Will be there in three weeks time , will let you know if that still the case

Anyway here is someone who agrees with jbmurc
http://seekingalpha.com/article/714571-billabong-strong-retail-brands-in-turmoil

The Hurley Surfing High Performance Training Centre has just opened on the Gold Coast. The $4m centre is just 20 kms from BBG head office at Burleigh Heads. The history of Hurley is an interesting read, the co founders are ex Billabong licence holders and launched Hurley in 1998. BBG are now left floundering by increased competition and a consumer led retail recession.

[JBmurc]

BBG on the move once more ..glad to have brought another lot 1.045 ....some 9% of BBG is short sold.....only makes sense if the shorters have already good size holding or else if a take-over offer comes about leading with a trading halt ...those short will have fun trying to buy 37million shares while the sellers run for the offer price which likely will be well above 30% margin I understand you need to short BBG

[soulman]

BBG on the move once more ..glad to have brought another lot 1.045 ....some 9% of BBG is short sold.....only makes sense if the shorters have already good size holding or else if a take-over offer comes about leading with a trading halt ...those short will have fun trying to buy 37million shares while the sellers run for the offer price which likely will be well above 30% margin I understand you need to short BBG

Good work JB. Just the 51% take up by retail. What??? the other 49% don't like money. A near 10% premium right now and maybe during alottment, still a decent premium available.

I got my timing wrong a few times that deter me from buying in the 104-105 range but nevertheless 3/3 strike rate on BBG the last 2 weeks. Just sold for 113.

[JBmurc]

Good work JB. Just the 51% take up by retail. What??? the other 49% don't like money. A near 10% premium right now and maybe during alottment, still a decent premium available.

I got my timing wrong a few times that deter me from buying in the 104-105 range but nevertheless 3/3 strike rate on BBG the last 2 weeks. Just sold for 113.

Closed at 1.18 ....many shorters getting margin calls ....looking forward to next week...one share I'm not selling out of with many predators lurking(only buying).... ....BBG sold only half of their Nixon holding for 225mill BBG have several major brands...500+stores-online stores like Surfstich

The Online retail industry awards for this year have just been announced and Billabong's Surfstich takes the top honours!

"The star of the 2012 ORIAs was SurfStitch, taking out Best Pureplay Retailer, Best Site Optimisation and Design, and Online Retailer of the Year to top it all off. SurfStitch trumped an impressive array of finalists, including The Iconic and CatchOfTheDay in the Pureplay category, and Appliances Online and brandsExclusive in the Site Optimisation category. From stunning imagery to seamless shipping and fulfilment, SurfStitch excels by providing the best end-to-end user experience, clearly making its mark on the Australian online retail landscape."(BBG currently own a minor stake but have the option to acquire it fully.....article below

http://news.smh.com.au/breaking-news-business/billabong-to-acquire-stake-in-surfstitch-20091223-lcxf.html

then just recently >>>>>>>>
The Ontario Teachers' Pension Plan has just agreed to acquire around a 75% stake in Norwegian outdoor clothing company Helly Hansen from Altor Equity Partners. No financial terms were disclosed, although Reuters reports that the deal is valued at approximately $326 million. www.hellyhansen.com(thats only one brand ??? makes BBG cheap with there muti assets)

mark my words BBG will likely be gone before the years out....

[soulman]

Good work JB. Just the 51% take up by retail. What??? the other 49% don't like money. A near 10% premium right now and maybe during alottment, still a decent premium available.

I got my timing wrong a few times that deter me from buying in the 104-105 range but nevertheless 3/3 strike rate on BBG the last 2 weeks. Just sold for 113.

Timing are off alright........closed at 118 and I missed out on 5 cents. Sold AXE at 19 mid-week and they are now 22. Sold TTE at 1.7 and they are now 1.9.

Still a nice week from the market JB.

[Entrep]

New T/O offer at $1.45 apparently

http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/Article/TPG-launches-renewed-much-lower-Billabong-bid-pd20120723-WGPPK?opendocument&src=rss

[Stranger_Danger]

Well done JB. Credit where credit is due - you nailed this one.

[Hoop]

Ditto...well done JB

[moimoi]

Yeah well done JB... Ballsy call but you were right!! :-)

[soulman]

Yeah well done JB... Ballsy call but you were right!! :-)

Yep, well done JB and well done TPG. Bought back in at closed for 118 on Fri and nearly sold for 1.11 yesterday. Then I say to myself, why I bought BBG in the first place. Not because of their brilliant business but because someone wants them.

My order went through at open at 135. The luck factor in this game.

JB, you have accumulate plenty and I expect party at your place soon.

[Toulouse - Luzern]

Exceptional JB.
Congratulations.

[percy]

Well done,JB.[Jumbo Balls].

[JBmurc]

Yeah many thanks guys I really need more BBG results still down much over the last few years...don't plan to sell at 1.45.... $2+ I'll be keen

[JBmurc]

I see the new TPG offer values BBG @ 354mill less when you take into account the debt they have paid off..from the offer back in March BBG turned down ....very opportunistic IMHO most likely be revised to 1.70-1.80 ....least it would have scared some shorts

[JBmurc]

Bain Capital, Billabong International, TPG

In other takeover news, there appears to be hope yet that Billabong International will receive a higher bid than the $695 million TPG is offering.

The Australian Financial Review reports another private equity group, Bain Capital, has informally expressed an interest in Billabong to Goldman Sachs, which is advising on the sale. The high-profile Bain, once headed by US presidential candidate Mitt Romney, is apparently "actively weighing its options".

It's all very speculative at the moment, but Billabong is undoubtedly hoping new bidders will emerge. It has made clear its view that TPG's offer undervalues the business, and has announced all talks with its suitor are non-exclusive.

The release of Billabong's full-year results on August 27 could be the catalyst other potential buyers are waiting for.

[JBmurc]

http://www.smh.com.au/business/the-knives-come-out-when-chips-are-down-20120810-23zip.html

[JBmurc]

PRESSURE is mounting on Billabong chief executive Launa Inman to deliver a coherent and winning strategy next month to return the company to growth and potentially derail a highly opportunistic takeover proposal from private equity player TPG.

The date for the release of the surfwear retailer's three-year transformation strategy, which Ms Inman has been working on since May, has been pushed back from August 24 to August 27 when the surfwear and youth fashion group will also release its full-year financial results.

A decision to push back the presentation was made to give shareholders, investors and analysts more time to digest the new strategy. Billabong executives felt there were so many other financial results due out on August 24 that they could deprive Ms Inman of the attention needed to sell her plan.

The unveiling of the strategy to resuscitate Billabong's sales and profitability is expected to play a large part in the fate of TPG's $1.45-a-share indicative takeover bid, with analysts and investors looking for a clear pathway from Ms Inman to improve the company's financial performance.

Billabong yesterday agreed to grant TPG the opportunity to conduct non-exclusive due diligence, subject to the negotiation of an acceptable confidentiality agreement. It is unclear whether TPG will also be granted access to parts or all of Ms Inman's transformation strategy. ''There is no guarantee that, following the due diligence process, a transaction will be agreed or that the board will recommend an offer at the current proposed offer price,'' Billabong said in a statement to the ASX.

Shareholders in Billabong - including, it is believed, major shareholder and company founder Gordon Merchant - support TPG being allowed to conduct due diligence as they think it will lead to a much higher offer price.

The Billabong board believes the current offer, which values the company at $695 million, does not reflect the fundamental value of the business in the event of a change of ownership.

[JBmurc]

Bain Capital is mystery second Billabong bidder, say sources

(safe return at these levels IMHO two 1.45 offers ones got to move up)

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/mergers-acquisitions/unnamed-bidder-tables-145-per-share-proposals-for-billabong/story-fn91vdzj-1226466158982

[JBmurc]

Yet, investors and industry observers are excited as the takeover ruckus over Billabong will trigger a bid battle.

"It's great news for shareholders of Billabong because it adds pricing tension," senior equity analyst Tim Montague-Jones told Bloomberg News. ''The probability is quite high that a higher offer could come through. A deal could get done."

http://au.ibtimes.com/articles/381144/20120906/billabong-tpg-bain-australia.htm#.UEgjZrIgceM

[JBmurc]

"We were always confident TPG was not the only suitor after Billabong. Bain Capital seems to have confirmed this and I wouldn't be surprised if another emerges," said Nathan Blair, Gold Coast manager and senior investment adviser for Ord Minnett.

"I think whoever ends up with the company will end up with a good deal in the years to come."

A new offer also seems to indicate other suitors have not been turned off by new chief executive Launa Inman's restructuring plan, which was revealed last week after Billabong announced a $275.6 million loss, its first since listing a decade ago

http://www.goldcoast.com.au/article/2012/09/07/437882_gold-coast-business.html

[JBmurc]

All out at $1.42 ...nice short term profit ...only sold as I think ROC will do better in the next couple month % wise still any major pull-back 1.20's etc will temped me to buy again if nothing new is known

[soulman]

Nice one JB, as BBG dropped 7.3% today to $1.34. Second bidders going away.

[JBmurc]

Nice one JB, as BBG dropped 7.3% today to $1.34. Second bidders going away.

yes looked like I got that one right ROC doing not bad either up couple cents from buy price

[JBmurc]

Billabong International, TPG Capital

There’s a case to be made that Billabong International is worse off now than it was 16 days ago.

The embattled retailer’s share price plunged 7.3 per cent to $1.34 after announcing the second mysterious bidder, widely reported to be private equity giant Bain Capital, had pulled out of talks just two weeks in.

The company’s market cap has now sunk to $638 million, well below the $696 million that its bidders were zeroing in on.

Billabong stock was riding high – relatively speaking – as the market dreamed of a bidding war between Bain and TPG Capital. The former is still in the due diligence game with an indicative, non-binding proposal of $1.45 a share.

On the face of it, Billabong shareholders are staring at a scenario where they’re back to one bidder, having watched another potential rival run screaming for the hills after taking a look at the books.

But the stock is not reflecting that, with Billabong shares trading noticeably higher than they were before the Bain offer was announced.

The prospect of a bidding war has evaporated, but private equity firms don’t really do bidding wars.

With TPG much further down the track in its talks with Billabong management, the most likely role that Bain could have played would be to hold TPG to its current $1.45 indicative offer. Perhaps it could enhance it slightly.

However, TPG has shown a commitment to the Billabong play for quite some time now. Remember that $3.30 proposal that Billabong founder Gordon Merchant knocked back was lodged in February.

We’ll never know the reason as to why Bain walked away from TPG. Perhaps they don’t believe in the turnaround scenario spelled out by chief executive Laura Inman.

It doesn’t matter to some extent. TPG has been stalking Billabong for seven months now. It’s persistence towards Billabong is just as compelling a narrative as Bain’s flight of fancy.

[mamos]

No bidders left!

[POSSUM THE CAT]

Mamos are you surprised? Who would want it?

[winner69]

Nice one JB, as BBG dropped 7.3% today to $1.34. Second bidders going away.

JB certainly got that one right .... back below where he originally bought in before cleaning up with a huge gain in a short time

maybe one day there will be another bit of excitment and other people might get interested but you would have to think it be a really dog of what looked like bargain basement prices wasn't enough to convince them to go ahead

A few more months maybe

[JBmurc]

JB certainly got that one right .... back below where he originally bought in before cleaning up with a huge gain in a short time

maybe one day there will be another bit of excitment and other people might get interested but you would have to think it be a really dog of what looked like bargain basement prices wasn't enough to convince them to go ahead

A few more months maybe

yes pays not to be too greedy ,,,A lesson I need to remember every time I see a good short term profit ...even sell down 50% etc then reevaluate ...could have done the same with CVR of late watched it move from 2.3 to 3.6c ...acted to late only sold a very few at 3.5c-3c
PXGOA the same... It's a tough market place for the long term investor imho being a swing trader much safer....

[trackers]

78c (approx half of indicative takeover price), $399mil market cap - anyone else looking for a bottom?

FY sales of 1.55billion, EBITDA $130mil (not sure of Nixon sale affect), FY13 EBITDA est. $100-110mil

[JBmurc]

78c (approx half of indicative takeover price), $399mil market cap - anyone else looking for a bottom?

FY sales of 1.55billion, EBITDA $130mil (not sure of Nixon sale affect), FY13 EBITDA est. $100-110mil

yes certainly looking again shorters/Fear mongers having a field day of late .....should bounce one day soon ....my pick low 70's back to the 80's in the short term ...BBG sold half of their Nixon holding for some 280mill ...sell the other half ...and BBG would have no debt and 100mill extra cash .....not planning on buying back but never know ..

[JBmurc]

BBG back over 80c ...

[trackers]

Yep I should have trusted my gut here... Takeover at ~$3, two bidders around $1.30, decent transformation strategy...

[dartMonkey]

In terms of online presence there is only one name that comes to mind as a surfer of 35 odd years.
I sincerely hopes that it translates into profits because I'm probably on billabong's site every few days ...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0Bh53SJwhLk

[Halebop]

Billabong down to 70 cents and in a trading halt pending announcement. Given the volumes and pressure on the share price this morning will this be bad news?

[trackers]

How bizarre...the TH text suggests the company doesn't have a clue:

"The trading halt is requested pending an investigation by the Company into trading levels today."

don't hold.

[Halebop]

Dissapointing, I was hoping they were going to get smashed this morning (holders may disagree with me!).

[JBmurc]

WOW anyone been catching the falling knife BBG- MC 100mill SP-- 21.5c ....to think these were once priced at $14
muti-takeover offers....all either turned down or fell though....

[biker]

WOW anyone been catching the falling knife BBG- MC 100mill SP-- 21.5c ....to think these were once priced at $14
muti-takeover offers....all either turned down or fell though....

Yes, I have been. Have doubled my holding with the lowest at 13c. Amazing that the market cap at that price was less than 63 million.
Im still under water but a nice bounce today.
A recap announcement must be close.
Still the possibility of losing the lot but my optimism has an eventual profit in mind.

[biker]

]


Another nice 15% lift today. certainly going in the right direction.

[biker]

And, up yet another 15% today to 26c (28 intra day) BBG is up 100% in 11 days and 24million shares worth $6 million traded today. This was a very blunt falling knife.

[biker]

A long time since we have seen a glimmer of good press on BBG

This from THE AGE this morning




The chief executive of struggling surfwear company Billabong, Launa Inman, says the key US market has begun to turn around from recessionary conditions, although Europe remains in the doldrums.

Speaking to shop-eat-surf.com, Ms Inman said there had been a lift in performance in the US, which accounts for half of Billabong's more than $1.55 billion in annual sales.

''Europe is the issue, and Australia has had [its] issues as well,'' she told the US website. ''While America did have its issues, it has turned the corner, particularly in the last six months.
��
''The most important region is the Americas, and that is where our biggest sales come from, it's got the greatest opportunity and it actually has turned. We are very happy with it.'' ��


Ms Inman has been touring the US over the past week as Billabong launches its new seasonal collection.

In fiscal 2012, Billabong posted $750.3 million in sales in the US, down 11.1 per cent as conditions triggered a sales slump.

Ms Inman said Europe and Australian were still challenging markets. ''We're not seeing any signs of any green shoots [in Europe]. At times you think you are, then something happens, a change of government … or something, and we just have to keep managing that.''

She suggested Billabong might retain ownership of the skatewear chain West 49 despite the company being desperate for cash as it buckles under the weight of $300 million in debt, flagging sales and management turmoil in the wake of protracted takeover speculation.

Last year, Ms Inman promised to ''cut the tail'' off withering Billabong brands to allow her global team of designers to spend time on the top four labels that generate more than 70 per cent of annual sales.

Meanwhile, Billabong is thought to be in talks with US private equity firms Sycamore Partners and Altamont Capital Partners to refinance its balance sheet.

[blackcap]

hope your above water now biker. if ig helps I will go buy some boardshorts from them when spring comes around, best quality clothing I've ever had, lasts forever

Now that you say it.. I have some Billabong stuff too from way back and its still in good nick. Even wear it so now and then. I guess the problem is that like all fads they come and go. And teens just dont wear billabong anymore these days :(

[biker]

hope your above water now biker. if ig helps I will go buy some boardshorts from them when spring comes around, best quality clothing I've ever had, lasts forever

Getting there Moosie, and thanks for that. Could you manage a container or two?

Not sure now where BBG are going to end up. If the refinancing/restructure isn't too harsh and the profit trend starts going the right way ( and a hint of that from the CEO) then a share price in the twenties may be looked back on as a lost opportunity.
On the other hand below 10c may be more realistic.
I think the market is still pricing in a very bleak scenario and my money is on the fact that it has still overshot on the down side, even though it has already risen about 80% off its lows.
And Blackcap, I don't think the brand is dead and buried yet.

[biker]

Seems like I'm the only one banging on about this company, but the financial restructure and new CEO and board members seems to impress the market. Up over 40% today making 170% in the last three weeks.
Still good growth to come IMO.
The new CEO has some pretty convincing experience.
Granted, this will result in a pretty large dilution , but current shareholders haven't been discarded and can still share in the turnaround and prospective growth.

[biker]

What a fascinating stock this has been, in terms of both distant and recent history.
Share price now up 220% from its lows in less than a month, with a new highly regarded CEO and reconstructed board, and previous hedge fund financiers overplaying their hand and losing their hoped for punishing control of the Company, making money from purchasing the discounted debt but missing the main event by out smarting themselves. Fascinating stuff.
At 40+ cents, not so much immediate upside, but medium term, I think there is great potential if they slim it, revitalise the brand, work some online magic and get it back to the great Company and brand it once was.

Disc. Bought some high, bought more low, averaged down, now well in profit

[JBmurc]

What a fascinating stock this has been, in terms of both distant and recent history.
Share price now up 220% from its lows in less than a month, with a new highly regarded CEO and reconstructed board, and previous hedge fund financiers overplaying their hand and losing their hoped for punishing control of the Company, making money from purchasing the discounted debt but missing the main event by out smarting themselves. Fascinating stuff.
At 40+ cents, not so much immediate upside, but medium term, I think there is great potential if they slim it, revitalise the brand, work some online magic and get it back to the great Company and brand it once was.

Disc. Bought some high, bought more low, averaged down, now well in profit

Good one...biker was close to taking a position near the lows ... remember though you still only have a paper profit.. I'd be temped to sell a few as it's such a bi-polar stock ....only say this as I sold for a 50% profit 1.40's only after paying 90's another mate brought same time as me but held to then sell for a small loss ....

[biker]

Good one...biker was close to taking a position near the lows ... remember though you still only have a paper profit.. I'd be temped to sell a few as it's such a bi-polar stock ....only say this as I sold for a 50% profit 1.40's only after paying 90's another mate brought same time as me but held to then sell for a small loss ....

Good advice JBmurc. Should have added to my last Disc. that I have sold half. Was a bit too exposed. A 'bi-polar' stock indeed :-) Hoping the new medication will cure that!

[tosspot]

been watching this one all the way up but always thought it wasn't going to go any higher so havnt jumped in. BIG mistake. anyone else jumped in. what are peoples thoughts from here.

[JBmurc]

been watching this one all the way up but always thought it wasn't going to go any higher so havnt jumped in. BIG mistake. anyone else jumped in. what are peoples thoughts from here.

Higher risk but has been running solid of late ...come close to buying in at its recent lows

[biker]

been watching this one all the way up but always thought it wasn't going to go any higher so havnt jumped in. BIG mistake. anyone else jumped in. what are peoples thoughts from here.

I have been banging on about this stock for a while. A pretty phenomenal close at 57.5c. Doubled my holding at an average of 16.3c lowest 13, now letting profits run having sold half. The market beat BBG down mercilessly and the risk/reward only a month ago was too good to miss. A great brand to rejuvenate and a very accomplished CEO to do it, so further to run for sure, but certainly at a slower rate, and medium rather than short term IMHO

[biker]

WTF? Up another 17% at the moment to 67.5c having reached 71.5c

[winner69]

WTF? Up another 17% at the moment to 67.5c having reached 71.5c

Doesn't really matter wtf is going on does it ...share price keeps going up

Well done on your success ...long may it continue ...even back to the glory days

[baller18]

Could BBG be a turnaround company? hm....

[winner69]

Could BBG be a turnaround company? hm....



Hm hm hm. .....maybe

Better board the train

Not too late if a turnaround ...but be decisive and miss more of the easy money

[biker]

[QUOTE=baller18;420860]Could BBG be a turnaround company? hm....[/

If BBG gets its ducks in a row it's not inconceivable that the undiluted share price could eventually end up north of $1.50 which is north of 90c in the new money, (but if you are talking turn around as in historical prices, the sky's the limit,) however, there will no doubt be a lot of profit taking between now and then.

[baller18]

Got some serious thinking to do... Its definitely in an uptrend, however, I still have some questions as to the fundamentals of the company??

[winner69]

A LOT of people have A LOT of questions over the fundamentals of the company! Just look at how many potential acquisitors walked away from takeover deals, even at 90 cents! Don't play with fire and you won't get burnt baller. As you're a beginner, I'd say stick to the companies with good revenues and growth that are turning a profit ;)

Day to day they are profitable moose ...even after paying the bloodsuckering pe outfits interest ...and before all the write downs

Now as that **** been sorted maybe profits might be surprisingly high .....but I would be still worried as the bloodsuckers are still attached ...like 12% mezzanine finance

[baller18]

Thanks moosie and winner, its definitely fire ill be playing worth. However, I was thinking to hold it for a very short term...
Looks like the uptrend will be going on for another month...
Playing with fire... I won't be doing it, but so tempted!!!

[baller18]

Oh my.. at this rate, its going to reach $1 dollar in like a month!!!

[tosspot]

Got in at 62c this morning

[baller18]

Got in at 62c this morning
Are you going for short term gains I'm assuming??

[tosspot]

Yip aiming for 70c most likely

[baller18]

However, their new CEO has a lot to do, and who knows he might be able to turn it around, he has quite a bit of credibility under his belt...

[baller18]

How long do people think this uptrend will go for?

[POSSUM THE CAT]

baller18 until people wake up. To me it looks like a pump & dump scam.

[baller18]

How do you establish or know its a pump & dump scam? Thanks heaps

[POSSUM THE CAT]

Baller18 that is my opinion of the share. After studying the history of the company. This is at least the third time this company has been raved about only to crash in other instances. Is it going to do anything different this time. Take a look at The King buys Postie plus thread. And see all the raves about Postie Plus. where is it To Day. In WOOF WOOF teritory.

[baller18]

Hm... billabong still looks like its in a healthy uptrend...

[winner69]

Hm... billabong still looks like its in a healthy uptrend...

Still interested baller

Maybe NOW is the time to buy.


Really sad story .....once a great company with great brands and now they say billabong is 'worthless' .....one needs to move with the times

[winner69]

BBG was 17 bucks once .......so 50 cents is cheap as moosie

[tosspot]

well Im that guy. I bought in at 62c. Only time will tell whether im right or wrong, but I don't plan on selling at a loss. Horrible result but thats not what the recent rise in shareprice was on at all. was expected

[baller18]

yes, thank you winner and moosie!!! love you guys!!

[stevo1]

As a surfer of 55 years I have observed billy and prior to being public listed they were a great company .If the stitching on your wettie failed (even after 5 years)they would fix or replace.BUT with corporate greed when they became a public listed company everything changed.Now you have money driven market men driving a company whose wares are overpriced ,brand marketing and their competitors provide goods of equal or better quality without the obscene price tags.Yes they have a great marketing team but they also have the MONEY MEN .Be carerfull may well prove to be a winner but the soul of the company is gone

[winner69]

Good one stevo .... sad really what those moneymen can do eh

Billiabong without a soul will find it hard to survive ..... it is an inner soul that makes great consumer brands eh .... something that Billabong had as stevo said but alas no more.

[JBmurc]

just checkout the chart Buy off the double bottom sell now after the double top.....>>>>IMHO SELL

[winner69]

Steve ....the money men doing very ok from this train wreck

http://www.theage.com.au/business/retail/billabong-advisers-skim-off-23m-fees-20130827-2sndi.html

[winner69]

Wow ....couple of big down days

Must be some news to be released to get the price back to 60 again

Going to have a punt baller

[tosspot]

yea im really regretting my purchase but most of that loss was a goodwill writedown, not actual cash lost. I assume the sp will rise again once the capital is raised from either of the investment firms. Remeber they still posted a BILLION of revenue so there is still money being made. They just need to cut those huge costs. And all the accounting tricks have been used up in this statement so anywhere billabong will go is up. assuming they can atleast maintain current sales

[winner69]

Baller - you still with us

Big down to low 30's now .....saved your bacon last time when in the 60's or whatever ......so I reckon now is the time for you to have a punt

[baller18]

Baller - you still with us

Big down to low 30's now .....saved your bacon last time when in the 60's or whatever ......so I reckon now is the time for you to have a punt
Lol... Man bbg is a stock for professional traders right now, and i am definitely not at that level. Are you taking a punt in bbg winner?

[biker]

Bought more today at 34.5c


Disc. Hold quite a few so I'm biased