Xro - xero

[winner69]

Bouncy bounce. IXIC up 1% today, DJI still hovering near all time highs. Enjoy!

Will be a boomer day ......and Shore and his mates down at Xero HQ will be a lot chirpier today.

[couta1]

Watching the market yesterday was like a repeat of that film Dumb and Dumber except for those buying,im building me up a cash pile so i dont miss out on the next round of this dumb arse behaviour:cool:

[Shore]

and Shore and his mates down at Xero HQ will be a lot chirpier today

Nice try ;)

It's all par for the course. Up and down she goes. I'm buckled in for the ride and look forward to seeing where this company ends up in a few years time.

[couta1]

hmmmm xro should rise today but I can still smell a bit of fear out there and believe if nasdaq is firmly green overnight tonight the real greed(dont wont to miss out on this bargain) buying will happen tommoro.
decesions decesions.
Me thinks buying will be subdued today
Sit on your hands Snapiti,you want max profit don't you:cool:

[couta1]

Nice try ;)

It's all par for the course. Up and down she goes. I'm buckled in for the ride and look forward to seeing where this company ends up in a few years time.
Yep and Rods advise recently was to put the shares in the bottom drawer for 5 years,are we all just too short term in our thinking?

[skid]

They are calling it a modest rebound but any rebound is a welcome relief.
Nasdaq ended up .87% up (not sure if that interprets into a boomer day,but its in the right direction)
I would keep a close watch on the Nasdaq for a while--This whole thing started on concerns over expectations of lackluster corporate earnings (to come) so we are not out of the proverbial woods yet.

And why do corporate earnings way over there have such an impact over here--welcome to globalization (good thing to keep in mind when you hear them ramping on about the NZ ''rock star''economy)

Enjoy the ride today,but keep in mind some of those buying will be the ones who got out when the gettin was good and are buying back at a nice profit.:)

[Shore]

I do think there needs to be a bit of perspective... many analysts are saying it's now "delivery time" and that Xero is "under-performing" which I find ridiculous. Yes, against it's market capitalization, Xero's numbers on their own look a little uneven, but the SP is not under Xero's control therefore I think it's a little unfair to say Xero is under-performing because it has consistently met its targets and is executing on its promises.

[bull....]

should bounce as oversold, but tonight in us you have fed minutes which normally move markets big time so something to keep in mind

[skid]

I do think there needs to be a bit of perspective... many analysts are saying it's now "delivery time" and that Xero is "under-performing" which I find ridiculous. Yes, against it's market capitalization, Xero's numbers on their own look a little uneven, but the SP is not under Xero's control therefore I think it's a little unfair to say Xero is under-performing because it has consistently met its targets and is executing on its promises.

Absolutly right shore--Xero is doing its job--The SP is more a reflection of how we are doing ours --Its us who are valuing the company in the end
(although the outside markets can sure play their part--which is basically how traders over there are doing their job)

[skid]

the fed has been the markets best friend for a long time now so cant see anything changing soon.
keep printing money to throw into this huge hole(economy) and eventually the hole will be completely filled up that is until the money starts to rot away and the hole falls in on itself and then all you are left with is a rotten hole.
It's coming but they have been doing all they can to keep kicking the can down the road.

Which is a rather poetic way of calling them A-- holes

[Peitro]

My take is that once Thiel got on board, Xero started getting valued by the market along the same multiples as stocks like WDAY, N and CRM. What ever the reason, be it corporate earnings or what ever, if those multiples change in the US, they will change here as well. That is what has happened as far as I can see.

That's a bingo, couldn't agree with you more.

[Casino]

My take is that once Thiel got on board, Xero started getting valued by the market along the same multiples as stocks like WDAY, N and CRM. What ever the reason, be it corporate earnings or what ever, if those multiples change in the US, they will change here as well. That is what has happened as far as I can see.

My initial thought was that Thiel paid too much but I don't think they did. Bain Capital paid around 1.3 billion for MYOB. With MYOB's debt that's an EV of 2 billion for a company that has no global aspirations, is not really in the cloud yet and increasingly marginalised in Australia!!! Thiel got Xero for the same price.

[Casino]

Did anyone else take the opportunity to pick up some "cheap" tech stocks?

I love the price on LNKD: at $160 it was roughly 40% down from its highs 6 months ago.
Others that I felt were a great price (and which I had owned in the past) include: NFLX (-25%), P (-30%), FB (-20%) and for a bit of a specy CRM (-20%).

Anyone else had a punt thinking the NASDAQ has gotten over sold?

Be careful with CRM as sentiment is changing.

[Santiago]

Who's jumping in at these levels? Where are we at on the greed-fear scale? I'm tempted to top up.

[Santiago]

Agree with that, but it's a big IF.

At least you can be sure it'll be a 1% movement in either direction...

[Casino]

Agreed! Thiel is no mug. He would have analysed this thing inside an out. He wouldn't have purchased at $18 if he didn't believe it was a good price. It appears like he is having a pretty big influence on staff acquisitions as well. This last week aside, everything looks pretty rosy to me.

I think the profit-taking that we saw was healthy and we are only back to December levels. Let them appreciate by a billion if there are news that warrant huge increases and we didn't always see that. On the other hand, the Square deal was really important in my view but there was no reaction. Many US customers had asked for square integration and it's good to have somebody like Thiel who surely knows about payments...

[Casino]

Yup I agree. The sector was arguably overbought so some profit taking was likely at some point. The extent of it surprised me a little but at the end of the day it was all out of Xero's control. Like you say. We are at Dec levels so not a big deal. The main thing is that Xero continue to execute and from what I hear there are no doubts about where they are heading!

It was a good reminder for everybody for how little volume is needed to destroy huge amounts of capital.

[Malpaso]

Yep and Rods advise recently was to put the shares in the bottom drawer for 5 years,are we all just too short term in our thinking?

Couta you've hit the nail on the head with this quote. Bought heavily into Xero at $2.86 and haven't touched them since. Easy to get excited about the paper profits and break into a sweat over the tens of thousands i've seen dissappear this week. For me it's always been a long term play and having been to a few Xero presentations over the years, most recently a month ago, I'm absolutely convinced Rod is the messiah who will take us and Xero to the promised land in 3-5 years time. Seen too many big swings in the SP over the past 3 years to think this week is no different to the others. Keep the faith y'all.

[kerry]

Totally agree Malpaso. I too am convinced Rod is the messiah, from the very first day I saw him release Xero and what the plans are for it. No other product I have seen even comes close for small to medium size businesses (keeping in mind everyone has different requirements I know). The product is a hands down winner for so many reasons.

I had the opportunity to buy early on as well. But having not bought shares before and not being a risk taker I didn't. Should have because I believed in Rod and the product. So I watched the shares for along time and then bought at $10.70 - this exact time last year. They were $10 on the Friday, and by the time I got myself to Craigs and all signed up at lunchtime Monday, they were $10.70. Bought more at $14. I thought about selling this week - but am putting them in the draw for a few mores years yet.

[Shore]

Hey Kerry & Malpaso - t-shirts are heading your way! Newguy & Roger - are you sure you don't want me to put an order in for you?

5685

[keeny]

http://arstechnica.com/security/2014/04/critical-crypto-bug-in-openssl-opens-two-thirds-of-the-web-to-eavesdropping/

This could explain why tech stocks have been hammered in the last few days.

*Quickly buys more WYN* ;)

[kerry]

*Quickly buys more WYN* ;)

Same thought I had Keeny

[winner69]

Hey Kerry & Malpaso - t-shirts are heading your way! Newguy & Roger - are you sure you don't want me to put an order in for you?

5685

You better send keeny one as well

[Casino]

http://arstechnica.com/security/2014/04/critical-crypto-bug-in-openssl-opens-two-thirds-of-the-web-to-eavesdropping/

This could explain why tech stocks have been hammered in the last few days.

Here is another possible trigger:

http://time.com/49736/justice-department-to-probe-high-frequency-trading/

[blackcap]

looks like my lovely oyster and steak dinner is going to be more like fish n chips at the beach
hang on a minute have those asain buyers finally steep in.
Nothing wrong with fish n chips on the beach there Snapiti... especially if the company is agreeable ;)

[robbo24]

looks like my lovely oyster and steak dinner is going to be more like fish n chips at the beach
hang on a minute have those asain buyers finally steep in.

Don't worry, moosie will be on later to confirm that it is HAMMER TIME.

[tzbang]

Not as much of an gallop into greener pastures as I was hoping but much better than the repeated kicks in the face like yesterday.

[skid]

I would imagine that today will be ''where the rubber meets the road'' in terms of Xero making up ground on lost value.
If it stumbles along like yesterday -I would be worried--Seems to have found a bottom for now the question is is it ''business as usual''
The rate of acceleration will be a good indicator of whether there is still much residual fear.--

It would be nice to see the $Kiwi lose a bit to help out exporters

[skid]

Some of the numbers being thrown around by posters on the speculative growth stocks are just plain scarey--I would certainly hope they are keeping alot in reserve--never the less,it should be more or less a ''relief'' day

[robbo24]

Early impression is that sellers are shrinking..

[robbo24]

Yeh XRO goes buckwild at the last second, I've noticed that too.

[winner69]

I would imagine that today will be ''where the rubber meets the road'' in terms of Xero making up ground on lost value.
If it stumbles along like yesterday -I would be worried--Seems to have found a bottom for now the question is is it ''business as usual''
The rate of acceleration will be a good indicator of whether there is still much residual fear.--

It would be nice to see the $Kiwi lose a bit to help out exporters

People need not worry

Those who bought at $45 were expecting the $100 in 2016/2017 - being what it worth then

Those buying on the dips to low 30s just going to be making heaps more than they were last week

Nothing has changed ....so why worry

As Mark Knopfler penned in the great Dire Straits song -

Why worry?
There should be laughter after pain
There should be sunshine after rain
These things have always been the same
So why worry now?
Why worry now

[couta1]

People need not worry

Those who bought at $45 were expecting the $100 in 2016/2017 - being what it worth then

Those buying on the dips to low 30s just going to be making heaps more than they were last week

Nothing has changed ....so why worry

As Mark Knopfler penned in the great Dire Straits song -

Why worry?
There should be laughter after pain
There should be sunshine after rain
These things have always been the same
So why worry now?
Why worry now I love this post and Mark knopfler

[Lost in space]

I love this post and Mark knopfler

Was running around Denmark in 1987 when I thought the world was coming to and end.Listening to that song over and over on my Sony Walkman (anyone remember those) and anxiously checking fax machine for market updates...

[winner69]

XRO is quite a hard one to pick via the depth I've found. For example it can look like it is going one way right up until market open and then big bids/asks can come in right at then end.

Yesterday touched on $33, who knows what it will do today, but one would expect $34 at some stage this morning I would have thought. Certainly 2 days of NASDAQ strength provides a lot more stability than one day. I expect many yesterday might have thought we were seeing a one day "dead cat bounce" so hopefully two days in a row of strength might exponentially support the SP. Time will tell :)

34 bucks and it not even 11 o'clock

Next stop 35 bucks, with ASX to boost it along

Maybe even 37 bucks

[tzbang]

or 50 bucks :-)

I just wish I'd waited for the massive dip to top up.. it was a gold opportunity for xero traders with spare cash to invest again. Given the recent successes and popularity I think a lot of people might be thinking the same thing.

[Copper]

34 bucks and it not even 11 o'clock

Next stop 35 bucks, with ASX to boost it along

Maybe even 37 bucks
It will be interesting how the rest of the world is thinking.The Aussies in a short while then the Asians.If it holds I will heave a little sigh of relief,even though it may be temporary....

[blackcap]

34 bucks and it not even 11 o'clock

Next stop 35 bucks, with ASX to boost it along

Maybe even 37 bucks

Aw shucks, I bought some at 34 thinking I could sell them this afternoon at $37 :) Winner you are terrible ;)

[drswag]

Aw shucks, I bought some at 34 thinking I could sell them this afternoon at $37 :) Winner you are terrible ;)

I'm in the same boat! Why would anyone want to sell now when they could sell... later?!

Serves me right though..

[robbo24]

I'm in the same boat! Why would anyone want to sell now when they could sell... later?!

Serves me right though..

The days not over yet.

[skid]

Just been having a look at the charts-now Im not much of a chartist but all along Xro has been pretty much bouncing off the 30day MA (on the positive side) and well above the 100day MA---Now suddenly it has dropped WELL below both and is so far not finding much legs--Gotta bad feeling about this one---Maybe some real chart savy posters could elaborate....

[whatsup]

IMHO, if one wants to trade XRO you have to be set before the last trades of the day as recently XRO has opened .60+ and races away depending what has happened over night in the US. we are at that point now on the NZX.

[blackcap]

have been watching the trading closely and it not going to take much to push this puppy lower.

How were those oysters?

[Beagle]

Just been having a look at the charts-now Im not much of a chartist but all along Xro has been pretty much bouncing off the 30day MA (on the positive side) and well above the 100day MA---Now suddenly it has dropped WELL below both and is so far not finding much legs--Gotta bad feeling about this one---Maybe some real chart savy posters could elaborate....

From a technical perspective this stock still looks shot to bits. Any self respecting technical analyst would tell you to stay well clear of this until it breaks through the 100 day MA on the way up. I normally like to ensure that both fundamentally and technically a stock is a buy or sell however in my view findamental analysis of this stock is in all practical respects impossible. That said we have 2 analysts with a sell rating and one with a buy rating and the chart says stay out so that's the full picture from where I sit. The faithful however will tell you none of that matters and its only a mater of time before XRO has world domination of the accounting software industry.:p

Thought for the day. Are we witnessing the beginning of a rotation out of speculative high growth stocks into traditional value stocks trading on real earnings at realistic PE multiples as a way of insulating portfolio's against rising interest rates causing possible market wide PE contraction ?

[winner69]

Roger said and its only a matter of time before XRO has world domination of the accounting software industry

That's all the fundamental analysis that is necessary - well done mate.

Some might want to quantify that ... easy peasy except for the timing of the cash flows .....formula is -

earnings (one day) = Y% share times $40 billion contestable market times Z% profit margin PLUS how much the beautiful software can grow the size of that contestable market

[winner69]

OMG whats happening to the Nasdaq at the mom

A day not to look at the XRO shareprice

Just remember nothing has changed in the big scheme of things .... XRO still on track

[Dentie]

OMG whats happening to the Nasdaq at the mom

A day not to look at the XRO shareprice

Just remember nothing has changed in the big scheme of things .... XRO still on track

So Winner, are you suggesting XRO investors (& others) take their lead from the US Nasdaq. Somehting like ...oh dear me, look what happened in the US overnight, the Nasdaq has dropped ..... ' is that you Mr Broker?.... SELL, SELL, SELL ...just get me out quick'.

Like you said...if the story hasn't changed ....WHY?

[bull....]

wow massive fake out by the bears nasdaq destroyed glad im not in 29 looks good again

[Bjauck]

Like you said...if the story hasn't changed ....WHY?
For many on the Nasdaq, the story had not changed...just that they, like NZX listings, cannot all be like a King Cnut holding back a tsunami of sentiment and macro forces. XRO is not a cnut.

[winner69]

IMHO, if one wants to trade XRO you have to be set before the last trades of the day as recently XRO has opened .60+ and races away depending what has happened over night in the US. we are at that point now on the NZX.

Spose it can open 60+ down as well?

[skid]

So Winner, are you suggesting XRO investors (& others) take their lead from the US Nasdaq. Somehting like ...oh dear me, look what happened in the US overnight, the Nasdaq has dropped ..... ' is that you Mr Broker?.... SELL, SELL, SELL ...just get me out quick'.

Like you said...if the story hasn't changed ....WHY?

The story has changed--XRO is predominantly aimed at the US market for the big payoff(even if it wasnt there is no escaping the influence of globalization)

It wont be pretty today unfortunately- The gains in the last few days have been very tentative and not enough to break the downtrend

Those who sold early would have most likely learned from a painful lesson in the past.

For others this will be the lesson---If its any consolation, most of us have ''been there'' as well, at some point

[robbo24]

DIL hasn't dropped at all since the Nasdaq excitement kicked off.. Never know, XRO sp might be weak enough as it is lol..

[skid]

IMO Globalization has alot to answer for.
Aside from this sort of thing,Ive seen situations where a decision in some US corporation can more or less trash a number of villages in India.
The world is not a fair place.
Until we can get back to decentralization it will carry on.(but not an easy task)
Thats why i ramble on about the dangers of the TPP(so called free trade agreement)with the US--someone in some other country makes a decision that affects our sovereignty-----Guess Ive wandered off topic a bit --apologies

[Balance]

IMO Globalization has alot to answer for.
Aside from this sort of thing,Ive seen situations where a decision in some US corporation can more or less trash a number of villages in India.
The world is not a fair place.
Until we can get back to decentralization it will carry on.(but not an easy task)
Thats why i ramble on about the dangers of the TPP(so called free trade agreement)with the US--someone in some other country makes a decision that affects our sovereignty-----Guess Ive wandered off topic a bit --apologies

When Xero and the likes were charging upwards on the back of the US IT record breaking run, it was all okay?

[skid]

DIL hasn't dropped at all since the Nasdaq excitement kicked off.. Never know, XRO sp might be weak enough as it is lol..

Maybe its because DIL has not rocketed enough to be perceived to be in ''overvalued'' territory to the same extent--God knows they have suffered enough pain in the past:mellow:

[robbo24]

When Xero and the likes were charging upwards on tck of the US IT record breaking RUN XRO t was all okay?

Skid the isolationist apparently fails to realise that NZ relies on trade with other countries to exist... XRO would be pretty damn small if limited to NZ by his commie ideals.

[skid]

When Xero and the likes were charging upwards on the back of the US IT record breaking run, it was all okay?

As far as the SP goes -yes, its all in the game.

The other things are a different issue that I think about a bit more these days--Guess Im getting a bit old and (to ethical?)
Sorry for the sidetrack, as its not really anything to do with XRO, but more the issue of the collateral damage of globalization.

[skid]

Skid the isolationist apparently fails to realise that NZ relies on trade with other countries to exist... XRO would be pretty damn small if limited to NZ by his commie ideals.

Granted-A company like XRO is not really a good example of the points I was making.
I didnt mean to make it specifically an example.
It was more about the globalization of some of the corporations that have so much power that they can alter events in far away countries.
A limit to those powers IMO would not be a bad thing (without totally preventing the free market)
I didnt mean total isolationist.--Might merit another thread.

[couta1]

Do these short term trends really matter,storms come and go but if you believe your boat is capable then don't abandon ship:cool:

[robbo24]

Granted-A company like XRO is not really a good example of the points I was making.
I didnt mean to make it specifically an example.


Lol this is the XRO thread Skid! Hahaha

[skid]

The boat is most likely capable,but wouldnt you rather be sitting at the level of your mental stop loss and waiting for a bargain on the capable boat?

Otherwise,maybe its best to just check in every 6 months or so.

[couta1]

traders market couta1.
We have been overdue for a correction for a long time in the broader market.
Time to trade not hold stocks and watch them go down.
Bloody hard work though.
True but im running such a big paper loss on all the tech stocks I'm riding this one out,sometimes you just have to guts things out in life:cool:

[skid]

Lol this is the XRO thread Skid! Hahaha

Like I said-Getting old and (to ethical?):):) Now wheres that ''off market'' button:):)

[robbo24]

True but im running such a big paper loss on all the tech stocks I'm riding this one out,sometimes you just have to guts things out in life:cool:

Good old couta and the curse of the paper loss. You'll get there in time champ.

Today will probably be dominated by peeps trying to short the stock.

I think it's funny when shorting doesn't work, would love to see that happen today.

[skid]

True but im running such a big paper loss on all the tech stocks I'm riding this one out,sometimes you just have to guts things out in life:cool:

Seriously-Hope it all works out:)

[robbo24]

Shift in sentiment to quantifiable values rather than guesswork. DIL will not suffer extreme volatility as its numbers are known and measured; Xeros are not.

Btw, does anyone know the margins on sales these days? Last I heard it was near 40% when all the marketting and fluff was taken out (I think)?

Hogwash moosie_900, are you saying the numbers of Facebook and other Nasdaq Composite index companies are not known? How do you explain their volatility if it's about knowns vs unknowns simpliciter?

[Shore]

the market is no longer willing to pay irrational valuations for said companies with known metrics.

As of this week.

Sentiment can turn on a dime, all it takes is for a bellwether indicator from the US to look positive and suddenly the forecast is blue again.

[tzbang]

In a similar position to couta.. unsure what to do so I think I'll reduce the hurt by selling half my xro with the intention of buying back in when it hits the next support level. ie.. stay in and get out at the same time

[bull....]

29 looking good

[Beagle]

Quite a few seasoned analysts on CNBC (channell 91 on Sky), calling this the beginning or a rotation out of high growth stocks, especially those with no earnings histury, into traditional stocks selling on realistic multiples based on real earnings.
i.e.The tech crash of early this century didn't all happen in one day. Eight years and the losses are still growing, food for thought ?

[brend]

Quite a few seasoned analysts on CNBC (channell 91 on Sky), calling this the beginning or a rotation out of high growth stocks, especially those with no earnings histury, into traditional stocks selling on realistic multiples based on real earnings.
i.e.The tech crash of early this century didn't all happen in one day. Eight years and the losses are still growing, food for thought ?

purchased at $31.5 the other day...lets see how this goes over the next few weeks.

[couta1]

In a similar position to couta.. unsure what to do so I think I'll reduce the hurt by selling half my xro with the intention of buying back in when it hits the next support level. ie.. stay in and get out at the same time
If in doubt sit,go with your gut but don't be a sheeple

[tzbang]

I'm not.. I'm being half a sheep. It's going to dip for a while before it rises so I'll recoup some of the paper loses on the upswing.

[Dentie]

as it is in the US....so it will be here ....lost another 10% already and we've just kicked off for the day

[Bilbo]

Quite a few seasoned analysts on CNBC (channell 91 on Sky), calling this the beginning or a rotation out of high growth stocks, especially those with no earnings histury, into traditional stocks selling on realistic multiples based on real earnings.
i.e.The tech crash of early this century didn't all happen in one day. Eight years and the losses are still growing, food for thought ?

It is interesting to go back and look at the historical charts of some of the tech companies that survived the 2000 tech crash. For many, the 2000 crash is just a blimp (e.g. Apple, Amazon, even Intuit to a lesser extent) while others are still struggling to reach 2000 levels (Oracle, Microsoft, Intel, Cisco, Yahoo), and many many more companies that had little or no substance disappeared (Webvan, Pets.com etc).

So if we are experiencing another tech crash there will be companies whose sp takes a little correction and then continues upwards, and others that flounder. I'm still a believer in the XRO story but am surprised at how far the sp has fallen in reaction to what has happened on the Nasdaq.

[Shore]

Once the dust settles each company will be evaluated on its own merits. It's easy to say "tech stocks" are out of favour, but this is generalizing the landscape far too much.


while others are still struggling to reach 2000 levels (Oracle, Microsoft, Intel, Cisco, Yahoo)

= all companies whose growth had either petered out or were under major and direct competition.


that had little or no substance disappeared (Webvan, Pets.com etc)

.. and other companies, primarily those who weren't quite sure where the revenue was going to come from, but just hoping that one day eyeballs would translate into dollars.

I think SaaS companies with high growth prospects are best positioned to come out of this strongly. They have strong, growing, identifiable revenue bases (unlike the 'dotcom' stocks of old) and are using the internet as means to deliver their business model... rather than the other way around when some companies utilised the viral nature of the internet to attract and sustain traffic, but realizing there as no actual business model behind it.

Xero had a business model from day one and is a totally different beast from the old tech stocks of the 90's.

[lastmoa]

Totally agree, Shore. Some people have difficulty differentiating in the tech space.


Once the dust settles each company will be evaluated on its own merits. It's easy to say "tech stocks" are out of favour, but this is generalizing the landscape far too much.



= all companies whose growth had either petered out or were under major and direct competition.



.. and other companies, primarily those who weren't quite sure where the revenue was going to come from, but just hoping that one day eyeballs would translate into dollars.

I think SaaS companies with high growth prospects are best positioned to come out of this strongly. They have strong, growing, identifiable revenue bases (unlike the 'dotcom' stocks of old) and are using the internet as means to deliver their business model... rather than the other way around when some companies utilised the viral nature of the internet to attract and sustain traffic, but realizing there as no actual business model behind it.

Xero had a business model from day one and is a totally different beast from the old tech stocks of the 90's.

[robbo24]

Totally agree, Shore. Some people have difficulty differentiating in the tech space.

Indeed, dellow, I feel more concerned for the likes of people still riding GEO on a $4+ buy in.

It's all relative to the company in question, in the longer term anyway.

[blackcap]

Indeed, dellow, I feel more concerned for the likes of people still riding GEO on a $4+ buy in.



Why would you feel concerned for them? They went there for one reason..... greed!

[tzbang]

i wonder how many people are holding xro on this thread sometimes. Couta, Tumeric and me?

[Bilbo]

i wonder how many people are holding xro on this thread sometimes. Couta, Tumeric and me?

I'm holding although did sell down about 25% of my holding over the last few weeks at average of $40. Pleased I took some profit off the top, but really want to hold most of the remaining shares for the long term.

[peng]

XRO holder reporting. Got in at $30.95 on Tuesday.

[skid]

Well at least the $30 psychological barrier has only been broken very temporarily (so far) so it could be worse.
Im on the sidelines (which is probably one of the only way to look at this unemotionally ATM (but Ive been there)
Some experts are saying the Nasdaq may well drift lower tonight as no one wants to be caught long ,going into the weekend.
Its a bit tricky now because there are probably more that are afraid of another ''fake rally'' and use it to sell.
Ive always found it intriguing how that magic point comes about when shares become oversold to the point that turns the tide back up.
(The whole market certainly looked overbought before though IMO)
Most agree that its better to give up a little bit of gains and not try to time the bottom,but wait for the confirmed uptrend.

[robbo24]

Uh oh the SP is above opening.

I hope all the shorters out there set their Go Gains [is this the opposite of a stop loss?] this morning.

[skid]

DIL hasn't dropped at all since the Nasdaq excitement kicked off.. Never know, XRO sp might be weak enough as it is lol..

Just reading how it is down 11% in the last month so not all plain sailing

[skid]

Well..That wasnt so bad in the end--Could have been alot worse---All eyes on the Nasdaq......

[davidm]

I purchased a modest number of XRO shares at $1.59 and intend to hold for a number of years. Also, I use Xero for my business accounts.

[Valuegrowth]

Can we expect further selling in tech stocks globally? Tech companies with great stories could sustain their businesses in the long run. If they don’t have beautiful stories their stock prices could come down further. I believe that this sell-off will last at least for a quarter or two. It is time to avoid stocks with extended P/E ratios.

In the meantime Asia and Europe are feeling the pain after sell off in NASDAQ. So there is a selloff in XERO too. Investors are looking for valuations now. There could be demand for Value stocks and value markets globally.

My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security, commodity or currency. Please do your own research prior to making any investment decisions.

[couta1]

Can we expect further selling in tech stocks globally? Tech companies with great stories could sustain their businesses in the long run. If they don’t have beautiful stories their stock prices could come down further. I believe that this sell-off will last at least for a quarter or two. It is time to avoid stocks with extended P/E ratios.

In the meantime Asia and Europe are feeling the pain after sell off in NASDAQ. So there is a selloff in XERO too. Investors are looking for valuations now. There could be demand for Value stocks and value markets globally.

My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security, commodity or currency. Please do your own research prior to making any investment decisions.
Been asleep for the last week MW,nothing new here mate,but glad you added the bit about beautiful stories to go with the beautiful software that XRO has

[skid]

Been asleep for the last week MW,nothing new here mate,but glad you added the bit about beautiful stories to go with the beautiful software that XRO has

Nothing new except that the company is getting revalued.

[blackcap]

Nothing new except that the company is getting revalued.

Exactly, its always been a great company, great product (my brother swears by it and sleeps easier) but with some ridiculous valuations now slowly coming back to normality but still a way to go methinks.

[skid]

come on belg it is a great investment long term.
I am more thinking of when is a good time to take a perminant position.
me thinks $25 has a nice ring to it.
Nasdaq not hit too hard so will be a good test to see how titchy the market is come monday.
My buy finger is ready on a few stocks should they show more weakness.

I would have to respectfully disagree with that Snaps.
A drop of 1.34% for the Nasdaq on the back of the biggest drop since 2011 is getting serious IMO.
It is now starting to spread to other shares not related to the Techs
There is absolutely no doubt in my mind that there will be more blood on Monday (sorry to say)

http://money.cnn.com/data/us_markets/

[skid]

And on top of all that --This couldn't have come along at a worse time

http://money.cnn.com/2014/04/11/technology/security/heartbleed-gear/index.html

[skid]

What a time for my crystal ball to be at the repair shop!:)

[tzbang]

What is the chances of this scenario being at all likely?
http://www.moneynews.com/MKTNewsIntl/Stock-market-recession-alert/2014/02/10/id/551985/?promo_code=166D4-1&utm_source=taboola&utm_medium=referral

[Onion]

What is the chances of this scenario being at all likely?
http://www.moneynews.com/MKTNewsIntl/Stock-market-recession-alert/2014/02/10/id/551985/?promo_code=166D4-1&utm_source=taboola&utm_medium=referral

Treat with caution... they are just trying to sell you a system to turn
$1,000 into as much as $300,000 in a 10-year time frame. On second thoughts, it must be a really good system because...


The Crash Alert System was actually programmed by one of the individuals who coded nuclear missile flight patterns during the Cold War so that it could be as close to 100% accurate as possible

[skid]

I think the situation is at a point where close scrutiny is required,but it is by no means inevitable.

These kind of articles do get up my nose a bit.
Warren Buffet's indicator is breaching a sell alert--but that doesnt necessarily mean Warren Buffet is himself preparing for a crash(could just be playing with words)has Warren buffet said he is preparing for a crash? So it is a bit of a stretch to go on to say ''with the inevitable crash imminent''

I wouldnt be buying into this market until there are clear signals that things have turned,but its a bit early to run to the bunkers.
I do think it is motivation to learn a bit about some of the warning signs of a downturn in whatever stock you hold(with the other eye on the market in general) This is especially true with ''market darlings'' like we have seen recently with Xro and Peb because they are like a loved one.

There is of course the fear of missing out on an announcement and being left behind but I remember when the oilers were the market darlings and NZO was the darlings of darlings--But the market took a turn--Right in the middle of this ''turn'' NZO announced that they had hit the Tui gas and oil field (the holy grail) --You wont believe it but the SP actually went down 1cent.(there was just to much fear around)--Not long after it of course gained big time as it sunk in,but it just goes to show how fear can warp the market(I think it is a stronger force than greed)
Anyway this article cant be ruled out but probably should be taken with a grain of salt.
(as a side note-fortunately there were not any nuclear missles fired during the cold war to test the bloke who came up with the 'crash alert system'':).......OK maybe some dummy missles but it still seems a bit far fetched to see the correlation between the two programs:)

[winner69]

Certain irony that big European investors are buying Greek bonds and selling US tech stocks ...

....and the negative sentiment affecting XRO share price

[skid]

They are buying US bonds like hotcakes as well--Bonds are like the opposite of shares-Its an inverse relationship from what Ive read.

But Greek bonds?-yep I know what you mean:scared:

[skid]

They are buying US bonds like hotcakes as well--Bonds are like the opposite of shares-Its an inverse relationship from what Ive read.

But Greek bonds?-yep I know what you mean:scared:

[Valuegrowth]

Now American subprime lending is back. It is not in relation to real estate, but this time it for another American passion – cars. So car sales increased dramatically in the USA. Asset managers are currently so desperate to find something. Savvy private equity firms and hedge funds have jumped into the fray. Some may be selling tech stocks and looking for something desperate now. They may park some of their money in USD as well. So we may see USD rally next. After tech we may see selling in other unsustainable sectors as well. It is time to adjust to the situation and take decision accordingly.
My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security, commodity or currency. Please do your own research prior to making any investment decisions.

[BIRMANBOY]

People aren't stupid (well most of us )...we like recurring patterns of behaviour. But whatever is it you are talking about??? Could be any number of things since you haven't quoted anything or referenced anything so could be just that you are berating yourself for ...I don't know ...maybe something like leaving the toilet seat up or forgetting where you put the keys or ???? Before you head off into the woods perhaps you could complete your thought and instead of swallowing it actually post it. Or maybe not.
Ah, the stupidity of the human race. Wish everyone knew history so we wouldn't have to repeat, repeat, repeat this stuff.

Going to head into nearest woods and not come out again...

[couta1]

Ah, the stupidity of the human race. Wish everyone knew history so we wouldn't have to repeat, repeat, repeat this stuff.

Going to head into nearest woods and not come out again...
Yep as of tomorrow morning I'm tuning out of the market during the day,will just check my portfolio for the normal news icons first up,don't see the point in watching more carnage and a running commentary on the forum when your deep in the red and riding out the storm,will be looking for those blue arrows on the US market to reappear,yep wash,rinse,hang out, bring clean clothes back in and repeat cycle again. PS-Heading to the psych unit to work in expect to find more sanity there than the market at the moment

[winner69]

Lol good luck couta.

Here's more info on subprime auto loans (doesn't appear nearly as bad as first thought, but still something we don't need and should be regulated after the last fiasco in '09!)

http://m.seekingalpha.com/article/2132583

Sorry to the Xero boys on here, will let you get on with it now, the dog needs a walk and Sunday is no time for this kind of stuff!

Just one if tricks to keep a fragile economy from collapsing completely

Bundling up student debt into a derivative of some kind is another trick

And these subprime lenders need not worry ...the Fed is still buying all their old junk as part of QE

[couta1]

sounds like you are putting your head in the sand in the dark and dont want to pull it out until the sun comes out.
Problem is you might be missing some great opportunities and how will you know it is light when your head is underground couta1.:):p
No money for opportunities right now Snapiti until i get my Genisis refund(Hopefully not much of a refund) ill be watching for those lovely blue Nasdaq lights to appear so head will come out of sand briefly early morning to check ,starting tues NZ time,enjoy the carnage folks:scared:

[tzbang]

So.. how much carnage are we expecting?

[winner69]

So.. how much carnage are we expecting?

Carnage: the killing of many people; a mass of dead bodies

In XRO case the slaughter of traders, leaving only genuine investors to reap the rewards

At least that is what couta hopes

Methinks sanity will prevail and XRO will end up pretty close to Fridays close, maybe even up a few cents

[robbo24]

Carnage: the killing of many people; a mass of dead bodies

In XRO case the slaughter of traders, leaving only genuine investors to reap the rewards

At least that is what couta hopes

Methinks sanity will prevail and XRO will end up pretty close to Fridays close, maybe even up a few cents

Geez who let bullish-winner69 out of his paddock?

Get back in there, XRO is going to get slammed!!! Get your short shorts out

[tzbang]

Slammed as in stubbing your toe on something hard? Or slammed as in slapping Mike Tyson in the face and closing your eyes?

[winner69]

Slammed as in stubbing your toe on something hard? Or slammed as in slapping Mike Tyson in the face and closing your eyes?

Mike Tyson quote "Everybody has a plan until they get punched in the face.”

Suppose no point having a plan for tomorrow then!

[BIRMANBOY]

Perspective Couta....the market is always totally sane...its the participants wanting/needing and expecting certain results that is insane. If everyone thought like you then it should follow that the market would always be in agreement with your thoughts and requirements, correct? When the market does what we want its not because we know anything or are good at what we do..its simply that for that particular moment in time we are aligned with a majority of other traders. Call me Mr.Cynical ..I am.
Yep as of tomorrow morning I'm tuning out of the market during the day,will just check my portfolio for the normal news icons first up,don't see the point in watching more carnage and a running commentary on the forum when your deep in the red and riding out the storm,will be looking for those blue arrows on the US market to reappear,yep wash,rinse,hang out, bring clean clothes back in and repeat cycle again. PS-Heading to the psych unit to work in expect to find more sanity there than the market at the moment

[Valuegrowth]

I consider sectors such as biotech, Internet retail, health care technology and semiconductor equipment stocks as the most vulnerable. Tomorrow and coming week is very crucial days for XERO. One of the important barriers for XERO is NZD 30. Other one is NZD 20. Just like humans in some situation markets and stocks could behave in a very strange way. As I said before once we see down trend for stocks we don’t know how low they can go. Only time will tell us. Be fearful when others become greedy and be greedy when others become fearful will have to apply in some situations.

My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security, commodity or currency. Please do your own research prior to making any investment decisions.

[winner69]

I love how nature invariably plays a part in how things turn out and no finer example than Fibonacci numbers (even moosie mentioned them the other day so must be good)

From taking from when the big guys bought in to the peak of $45 the 50% retracement is $31.50. Bounced off it the other day and closed just below it on Friday.

So another bounce? If not the next step down according to Mr Fibonacci is $28.30

If real carnage then $24.40 - the Mike Tyson lead before the knockout blow at $18.00

Of course it will bounce off that $31.50 line eh ..... and even then a double bottom which is all good news anyway

[BIRMANBOY]

LOL I suppose these mythical beings live down at the bottom of my (or your?) garden and are fond of sharing a little light lunch with the leprechauns. Or maybe they are plugged into the Matrix?
not cynical at all birmanboy the best traders are in tune with market sentiment which can change hourly.

[Shore]

I imagine Xero will be keeping a close on this one. Business SaaS service, similar growth rate and revenue numbers.

http://techcrunch.com/2014/04/10/zendesk-ipo-bears-striking-similarities-to-box/

[bull....]

wait for wall st futures open at 10am then that will dictate how big boys act

[bull....]

if the futures gap down at open you might get bigger re-action in stock prices

[bull....]

http://www.investing.com/indices/us-30-futures-advanced-chart
http://www.ig.com/au

i use different but these you will see top for futures, bottom for cash market
- just a note the markets are delicately poised on support so could go either way today an important week for sure

[skid]

Yep as of tomorrow morning I'm tuning out of the market during the day,will just check my portfolio for the normal news icons first up,don't see the point in watching more carnage and a running commentary on the forum when your deep in the red and riding out the storm,will be looking for those blue arrows on the US market to reappear,yep wash,rinse,hang out, bring clean clothes back in and repeat cycle again. PS-Heading to the psych unit to work in expect to find more sanity there than the market at the moment

If your in for the long haul,thats probably not a bad idea Couts.
I think the strategy of long term holding and closely checking the market several times a day,dont mix.
Thats why they say put them in the bottom drawer and forget about them.(although its more commonly used for more blue chip stocks rather than specs)

I dont necessarily agree,but if thats your decision why put yourself through the agony as its not going to help your life.
Work is good therapy for this sort of thing and Im sure your present work helps to put things into perspective of whats really important in life.
They say that the worst stress is from things you cant do anything about--It may not be dealing directly with your present situation(except for making some dosh),but at least you are doing something.
Perhaps with your amount of involvement you should at least "study up'' on the TA-FA thing just so you know a bit more about it, should you decide to change your strategy.

Good to know some of us posters will hopefully be in good hands at your unit should things get really worse :):):)

[bull....]

prices on the links wont up-date till 10am and after

[Shore]

If your in for the long haul,thats probably not a bad idea Couts.
I think the strategy of long term holding and closely checking the market several times a day,dont mix.

Agree completely. As Rod said on the weekend (and has said in the past before):
put them in your bottom drawer and don't look. It's where they are in 5 years that matters

[bull....]

[COLOR=#292F33][FONT=Arial]

Agree completely. As Rod said on the weekend (and has said in the past before):

ask the people who followed that in 2000 if they happy now

[skid]

I consider sectors such as biotech, Internet retail, health care technology and semiconductor equipment stocks as the most vulnerable. Tomorrow and coming week is very crucial days for XERO. One of the important barriers for XERO is NZD 30. Other one is NZD 20. Just like humans in some situation markets and stocks could behave in a very strange way. As I said before once we see down trend for stocks we don’t know how low they can go. Only time will tell us. Be fearful when others become greedy and be greedy when others become fearful will have to apply in some situations.

My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security, commodity or currency. Please do your own research prior to making any investment decisions.

''Be fearful when others are greedy-be greedy when others are fearful''-----''--Never try to catch a falling knife''---Take your choice ..

[skid]

I dont know if the subject has been breached, but I would think an announcement that Xero is safe from the Heartbleed bug (if they are) would be good--not good to leave something like that to peoples imagination

[Shore]

They did announce it on their blog... but yes an NZX announcement might be good idea.

[skid]

I wouldnt be surprised to see both Xro and PEB (spec-growth) drift along in this range(like a rudderless boat) today, until the real show starts again tonight.

Up or down 1/2 or 1% is almost irrelevant with the elephant in the room(Nasdaq)...IMO

[LegendOfRiot]

How closely has XRO tracked the NASDAQ in the past?

[Santiago]

I dont know if the subject has been breached, but I would think an announcement that Xero is safe from the Heartbleed bug (if they are) would be good--not good to leave something like that to peoples imagination


http://www.xero.com/blog/2014/04/xero-unaffected-openssl-issue/

[bmrm]

Up or down 1/2 or 1% is almost irrelevant with the elephant in the room(Nasdaq)...IMO

Very well put.

[bull....]

roughly correlation is 78% with nasdaq and 55% with nzx even higher correlation with internet stocks in the us so I guess where the nasdaq goes so goes xero

[bull....]

less than a mth
wyn is 63% and peb 75% just goes to show they are all following the nasdaq rather than the nzx

[bull....]

less than a mth
wyn is 63% and peb 75% just goes to show they are all following the nasdaq rather than the nzx

[LegendOfRiot]

Would be interesting to know if any positive XRO news affects the correlation in the short term, but for now it does look like it's following the nasdaq very closely.

[bull....]

the correlation is higher in the 90% range so you can make assumptions for yourself of how mauch the price reflects the company and how much is the nasdaq, dont get me wrong my personal oppinion is xero is a great company and i hope they eventually become the biggest company in nz but you should know the difference

[robbo24]

Divide the shareprice by 10 and this all looks like what happened to DIL.

Can't wait for the bounce.

[Bobcat.]

December's support at 2900 may well provide the double bottom we are looking for. Have this stock's fundamentals and/or market appeal really changed to the point that it won't bounce back from the low 2900's? I don't think so.

If it drops further through 2950, me thinks a purchase soon after with a stop loss at say 2875 provides a decent risk/reward ratio for a quick profit later this week.

If on the other hand, 2950 holds then that's also a good sign for holders.

BC

[nextbigthing]

December's support at 2900 may well provide the double bottom we are looking for. Have this stock's fundamentals and/or market appeal really changed to the point that it won't bounce back from the low 2900's? I don't think so.

If it drops further through 2950, me thinks a purchase soon after with a stop loss at say 2875 provides a decent risk/reward ratio for a quick profit later this week.

If on the other hand, 2950 holds then that's also a good sign for holders.

BC

Was it ever fundamentally worth 2900?

[winner69]

Divide the shareprice by 10 and this all looks like what happened to DIL.

Can't wait for the bounce.

Interesting observation

A quick overlay chart is spooky indeed .......XRO down to sub 20 bucks if the relationship holds

[Shore]

A quick overlay chart is spooky indeed .......XRO down to sub 20 bucks if the relationship holds

Stating the obvious here but DIL has been its own worst enemy. Not much to gain by comparing XRO and DIL in my opinion.

[winner69]

Stating the obvious here but DIL has been its own worst enemy. Not much to gain by comparing XRO and DIL in my opinion.

Just looking at a squiggly lines on a chart ......and for whatever reason the XRO squiggly line closely follows the DIL all the way up and so far all the way down (allowing for the different time frames of course) ....and if squiggly line continues e same way then 20 bucks is on the card

Maybe DIL was its own worse enemy .....but at the end of the day the real reason was a market reality that it was grossly overvalued ......maybe the same reason the XRO squiggly line has started to follow the DIL squiggly line down.

For a stock trading at 50 times sales and with no earnings maybe following squiggly lines is as old as any way of estimating/evaluating what XRO is worth

[blackcap]

[QUOTE=winner69;



For a stock trading at 50 times sales and with no earnings maybe following squiggly lines is as old as any way of estimating/evaluating what XRO is worth[/QUOTE]

Careful there winner... you will go upsetting a lot of people with succinct analysis like that ;)

[bull....]

have a look at peb and xro overlay its much more spooky

[winner69]

have a look at peb and xro overlay its much more spooky

Even more spooky is an overlay of both with RAKON

Really spooky

[Lorne Ranger]

Even more spooky is an overlay of both with RAKON

Really spooky

I thought it was a ST unwritten rule than comparing any stock with Rakon means you accept you have lost the argument?

:p

[winner69]

I love how nature invariably plays a part in how things turn out and no finer example than Fibonacci numbers (even moosie mentioned them the other day so must be good)

From taking from when the big guys bought in to the peak of $45 the 50% retracement is $31.50. Bounced off it the other day and closed just below it on Friday.

So another bounce? If not the next step down according to Mr Fibonacci is $28.30

If real carnage then $24.40 - the Mike Tyson lead before the knockout blow at $18.00

Of course it will bounce off that $31.50 line eh ..... and even then a double bottom which is all good news anyway

Well didn't bounce of the 50% Fib retracement and made good headway to the next Fib support level of $28.30

Couta - I'd stay away from the computer again tomorrow

[Valuegrowth]

Technology is currently experiencing a setback. Is the selling over or has it just begun? The stock market didn't have meaningful correction since 2011. Is broader general market correction underway? Since tech stocks also were market leaders. I believe a 10%-15% correction is possible. I also believe global central bank policies have largely been responsible for the current bull market in stocks.The coordinated efforts of global policy makers have so far provided for low interest rates and added liquidity. In short the sell-off in technology may be portending a further market correction. Definitely high-valuation stocks are under pressure now. High-growth companies,mostly in the tech and biotech sectors, led 2013’s rally and their valuations stretched to the extreme level. As a result of Tech sell off we are seeing in sell off in XERO as well. Today Xero closed below NZD30 one of the important psychological barriers.Their next the most important barrier is NZD20.

My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security, commodity or currency. Please do your own research prior to making any investment decisions.

[couta1]

Well didn't bounce of the 50% Fib retracement and made good headway to the next Fib support level of $28.30

Couta - I'd stay away from the computer again tomorrow
Will do if there's no blue on the Nasdaq in the morning,SLI held up today so thats a consolation:cool:

[Valuegrowth]

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11237641

Tech wreck fears riseTraders' herd behaviour affecting high-growth shares, but correction may be for best.

Please note that I do not endorse or take responsibility for material in the above hyper-linked site. Please do your own research.

[nextbigthing]

I see a person called scuba Steve has commented on the article above. Close to surfer Steve but it can't be him as the comment isn't some form of binary code and actually makes some sense.

[couta1]

I'd definitely consider a long term buy in at $18 or below (God forbid...!). If it's good enough for Thiel it's good enough for moi :)
Not in your wildest Moose dreams,those blue Nasdaq lights are about to start flashing again or at least flickering:cool:

[tzbang]

I'm keen to buy in again once it looks like it's settled. It might go down a bit further - but then it might rally once everyone realises there is no company fundamental reason why it's fallen so much and when it goes up it will be swift I'd imagine.. would hate to mis-time my entry..

[couta1]

Nasdaq in the Blue or Green,pick your colour:t_up:

[skid]

Yep -looks like the bleeding has stopped for now.
The stock market started out with a rally ,which is interesting ,but then fizzled out.
They said in the article that the Nasdaq was back in the red but the other info shows it was up 1/2%.
It will be an interesting week(short week)--Its ''steady as she goes'' at the moment.
If its over ,it has certainly been a wake up call for many.
I would take the wait and see conservative approach at this stage--but I doubt if many will do the same--After all, this stock is a gamblers
delight.
However it turns out,Im sure a ''relief'' day will be welcomed.

should be a better day at work for you Couts:)

[LegendOfRiot]

Looking good on the NASDAQ after hours market too.

[couta1]

I'd be taking this "rally" with a grainof salt. Still huge shorts on the Nasdaq and the intraday trading didn't hold up to well. DJI still looking pretty healthy though.
Any grain of salt is tasty even a single grain:cool:

[Bilbo]

Any grain of salt is tasty even a single grain:cool:

Looking for a little breakout once she clears the ones on sale at $30 and once the overseas buyers come in this afternoon. I might even get a good sleep tonight without having to fight the urge to check the NASDAQ in the middle of the night :)

Still a long term holder but my nerves of steel have taken a hammering over the last couple of weeks seeing a lot of profit get eaten up. I must admit though this correction will probably be a good thing in the long run and might have prevented a huge bubble forming in some stocks. I expect to see a split emerge in tech stocks from here, with quality ones moving higher and other less quality ones languishing until they deliver. Needless to say I'm picking XRO as one of the quality ones, but am not expecting big moves up in the sp until we get news showing uptake in the US and UK.

[tzbang]

Good post Bilbo. Pretty much exactly what I was thinking. Except my nerves have been shot not just by eaten profits but eaten monies. I topped up a bit high unfortunately. It was dipping and climbing in a nice pattern and I got on too late trying to make a quick greedy profit.

[couta1]

Take comfort Bilbo and tzbang my tech stock total paper loss is running at 75k currently :cool:

[tzbang]

ouch - thanks couta it always makes one feel better to find someone in a worse position. I just wish I'd waited a week and I could have topped up at $29 instead of $37. Dems the breaks. I suspect Xero will slowly restore some glory but until a real substantial announcement is made I don't think we'll see previous levels again for a while. That said, it's interesting reading back over opinions and news a year ago, all the doubters saying Xero would struggle to press into Australia and the UK have been proven wrong. All eyes are on their US invasion now. I use Xero everyday and love it. Who's used QBO recently?

[skid]

Good post Bilbo. Pretty much exactly what I was thinking. Except my nerves have been shot not just by eaten profits but eaten monies. I topped up a bit high unfortunately. It was dipping and climbing in a nice pattern and I got on too late trying to make a quick greedy profit.

Your an honest fellow tzbang--Those that are honest with themselves are the ones that learn the most and improve

[robbo24]

Take comfort Bilbo and tzbang my tech stock total paper loss is running at 75k currently :cool:

Everyone in the red, diagnosed with a disease, fails an exam, etc... Just think, could be worse.

[skid]

Take comfort Bilbo and tzbang my tech stock total paper loss is running at 75k currently :cool:

Is this your day off or is the ''not checking the computer'' only on bad days:):) (cant blame you for wanting to bask in a bit of positivity for a while though):)

Good to see your balancing your portfolio a bit with safer things like Geneses--not as much fireworks but alot safer -

[lastmoa]

FYI - JCurve (JCS on ASX) just placed in a trading halt pending an announcement.

[couta1]

Is this your day off or is the ''not checking the computer'' only on bad days:):) (cant blame you for wanting to bask in a bit of positivity for a while though):)

Good to see your balancing your portfolio a bit with safer things like Geneses--not as much fireworks but alot safer - Half day off Skid,yep will be heading back to good bonds and divvy stocks with any available money now,have learnt quite a few lessons from all of this but cant apply lessons learned until next time around now

[couta1]

Were you setting stops?
Only mental ones but Peb and SLI barely hit those,Dil and XRO on the other hand,I was going to sell my remaining XRO at $45 but even if I had I would have bought them back at around $38 so would still be sitting on a loss,Dil is now a long to very long term hold ,caught out there a year ago by buying into a downtrend,so many lessons

[couta1]

when you say paper loss, are you referring to actual holdings or hypothetical?
Actual holdings my friend

[skid]

Im a little bit surprised it hasnt broken 30.
PEB seems to have bounced a bit more ,but i suppose it also dropped more.

It can always be worse--spare a thought for all those Pike River holders(and yes,the families too)

And for those that are wishing they had rental property instead--I spent yesterday clearing a blocked sewer line (talk about getting up close and personal with your tenants by products:mad ;:

[bull....]

had 29 as a first stop looks likes its going lower

[bottlerboy]

had 29 as a first stop looks likes its going lower

I think long term holders could take some comfort from the underlying long term trend in this 2 year chart?
And both the RSI and Stoch are currently in way oversold territory surely
5725
disc; easy for me to say, dont hold any!

[bull....]

if im correct theres a gap to be filled at 20.60 if we go lower than 28 so says the crystal balls

[Silverlight]

I happily got out of Xero @ 19, but if I was a short term trader, Moosie comments seem to make a pretty good contrarian indicator :t_up: :p

[Bobcat.]

Aussie XRO.asx went lower yesterday after nzx closed. Those posters keen to buy today may do better buying on the .asx just before market close.

Currently trading at $26.54 (AUD).

[Beagle]

I think retail investors who were miffed that they didn't get a chance to top up at $18 late last year like the big boys will get their chance soon enough.

When did Goldman Sachs initiate their coverage with a SELL recommendation ?

[maccas321]

April 4th at $37 by the looks, ..down 24% since

[tzbang]

I'm surprised about the trickle down.. I was thinking there would be a bit more stability even a small rally today.

[tzbang]

I'm surprised about the trickle down.. I was thinking there would be a bit more stability even a small rally today.

[Bobcat.]

I might actually know more about TA than you, and I still don't see how anybody in a long position would draw comfort from seeing an long term upward trendline broken??

What's also a bad sign is the December support at 2900 has today been well and truly busted. Next historical support is last October's at just under 2800.

[winner69]

I hink the trend line on moosies chart might be a free hand one(?)

Even a squiggly long term trend le would be the 200MA one.

At the mo that stands at 2940

Whoops even that proxy for a long term uptrend is broken ......not good, even from a long term investor point of view

[bull....]

What's also a bad sign is the December support at 2900 has today been well and truly busted. Next historical support is last October's at just under 2800.

yea then thin air to 20.60 gap

[JohnnyTheHorse]

I hink the trend line on moosies chart might be a free hand one(?)

Even a squiggly long term trend le would be the 200MA one.

At the mo that stands at 2940

Whoops even that proxy for a long term uptrend is broken ......not good, even from a long term investor point of view

Watch what you say winner, you might get in trouble for that one.

[couta1]

I'm surprised about the trickle down.. I was thinking there would be a bit more stability even a small rally today.
Same here,looks like heaps of small parcels being sold by people sitting on good profits having got in early,may need to shake a lot more of them out before we get a bit of stability,there must be heaps of people sitting on large losses having bought in at the $38-$45 range,we are not alone by a long shot:cool:

[bull....]

Same here,looks like heaps of small parcels being sold by people sitting on good profits having got in early,may need to shake a lot more of them out before we get a bit of stability,there must be heaps of people sitting on large losses having bought in at the $38-$45 range,we are not alone by a long shot:cool:

Dont forget people can short it and i would think a lot of the big investors would have taken put options at the top so they have really lost nothing

[blackcap]

Dont forget people can short it and i would think a lot of the big investors would have taken put options at the top so they have really lost nothing

I would really like to know where you can get access to put options on this stock. Or for that matter an options market that deals in XRO in general?

[bull....]

I would really like to know where you can get access to put options on this stock. Or for that matter an options market that deals in XRO in general?
put options on the nasdaq i meant

[blackcap]

put options on the nasdaq i meant

Cheers Bull, but I was actually hoping you could provide me with a broker that did offer these on XRO :). I tried OM Financial but they do not really offer at present. Could facilitate if the amounts were big enough but would have to find a counter party etc. Hopefully the NZX is going to do what they have been promising for years and start an options exchange...... waiting waiting

[skid]

Comes back after being out for 5 hours----What the...? (must be trying to catch up with DIL...)

[bull....]

yea the nzx really lacks anything for an investor to hedge there nz stocks, you have to use other markets to do it - didnt they say futures on nzx were coming last yr?

[couta1]

Comes back after being out for 5 hours----What the...? (must be trying to catch up with DIL...)
Amazing Skid I was just about to say my XRO holding is in the same basket as my Diligent holding now not long but Veeerrrryyy Looonnnggg.

[blackcap]

yea the nzx really lacks anything for an investor to hedge there nz stocks, you have to use other markets to do it - didnt they say futures on nzx were coming last yr?
Late last year, and now its early this year. I have called them 3 times now and each time get assurances that it will be very soon. Problem is first half of this year is already nearly over. Maybe time for another phone call tomorrow.

[blackcap]

would you keep us posted blackcap maybe start a new thread

I may just give it a go. Give me a few days though.

[winner69]

Pretty close to that 2830 Fib support ..... break through that and next Fib support is 2440. I have a new chart showing the 2440 support level

He pretty cool that Fibonacci guy. Amazing how often those magic numbers / sequences appear in nature

One of well known ones is associated with spirals .... bet Mr Fibonacci didn't forsee the XRO share price spiralling down as it is

But tomorrow is another day. The 2830 might be the bottom this time round. If so even 3000 will look pretty good

[Roadrunner]

Come on guys... Xro wont let me down..the support really is there.. isnt it... isnt it.?

http://infinitas.co/r.d.d/img.lib/iceberg.jpg

Lol.....a bear market?:)

[catchbag]

I'm hoping it follows the DAQ a little more today. In and out of this like a Yo-Yo in the last year, overall it's been a positive roller coaster ride, until cart lost a wheel in this latest decline and SL was set a little low :( Righto, looking for that next buy-in to recoup.

[Shore]

Salesforce, Workday, NetSuite all posted nice gains. One would assume Xero might start to follow suit at some point!

[skid]

Its easy to forget that a year ago it was around 1200--Thats alot of gaining in a year so its not surprising its given up some.
Its still over double that amount so in that context its not unthinkable to even give up a bit more without tarnishing the company to much.

[catchbag]

Now if SLI could just bounce back Id be a lot happier,and DIL....which I'm now expecting to be a longer journey.

[tzbang]

Its easy to forget that a year ago it was around 1200--Thats alot of gaining in a year so its not surprising its given up some.
Its still over double that amount so in that context its not unthinkable to even give up a bit more without tarnishing the company to much.

OTOH everyones had another year of positive growth and positive news outlining the potential of the company - so far Xero hasn't put a foot wrong.
(which makes me a little concerned if/when something doesn't work out for them)

[couta1]

Now if SLI could just bounce back Id be a lot happier,and DIL....which I'm now expecting to be a longer journey.
My sentiments exactly

[catchbag]

And there Off and racing, now that's a better start! :)

[Bilbo]

Now if SLI could just bounce back Id be a lot happier,and DIL....which I'm now expecting to be a longer journey.

Wow, DIL is the standout performer so far today and is helping add some cheer to my portfolio. Looks like XRO will need some positive news to shake off the blues though. Interesting how the XRO sp reacted so strongly to the NASDAQ fall but has not bounced back as strongly as the other tech stocks. I suspect the negative analyst reports of the last few weeks are still dragging on sentiment. Hopefully it has stabilized though and we wont see further large falls.

[tzbang]

Is it just me or do the charts suggest XRO is very oversold at the moment?

[Santiago]

?...Interesting how the XRO sp reacted so strongly to the NASDAQ fall but has not bounced back as strongly as the other tech stocks. I suspect the negative analyst reports of the last few weeks are still dragging on sentiment. Hopefully it has stabilized though and we wont see further large falls.

Which is indeed interesting, in my view, as it is the one NZ tech stock that's actually selling a tangible service to real customers, growing at 80%+, and by all indications executing to plan. I'm not saying that WYN, PEB, DIL and SLI aren't delivering results, but you have to say that XRO is the most established and promising of them at this stage. I suppose its valuation ran too far ahead of itself in the past few months. But I reckon whoever gets in now will do well in the medium/long term (Disc.- I topped up again).

[LegendOfRiot]

Which is indeed interesting, in my view, as it is the one NZ tech stock that's actually selling a tangible service to real customers, growing at 80%+, and by all indications executing to plan. I'm not saying that WYN, PEB, DIL and SLI aren't delivering results, but you have to say that XRO is the most established and promising of them at this stage. I suppose its valuation ran too far ahead of itself in the past few months. But I reckon whoever gets in now will do well in the medium/long term (Disc.- I topped up again).

I think it's exactly for this reason that XRO seems to sometimes trade like the NASDAQ and sometimes it seems completely independent i.e. when good news occurs.

[Santiago]

It's a "put your money where your mouth is" moment, I reckon. Unfortunately my money isn't as big as my mouth...

[Bilbo]

I think it's exactly for this reason that XRO seems to sometimes trade like the NASDAQ and sometimes it seems completely independent i.e. when good news occurs.

What concerns me is what will happen if the NASDAQ suffers further big falls in the coming weeks. Will XRO continue to fall in line with or in excess of falls on the NASDAQ even though it has not bounced to the same extent as other shares?

[tzbang]

What are you fellows even talking about?

[tzbang]

oh right?.. weird.

So anyway.. XRO.. it's not rallying like it ought to..

[Shore]

Volume is down and price doesn't seem to be moving.

I think there are buyers out there, but I imagine they're all waiting to see if it will drop further before stepping in. If NASDAQ and Xero's contemporaries further gains overnight, it might provide enough of a spark.

[Bobcat.]

I'm still waiting for a large spike down as the seller(s) unload the last of their order(s). Most bounce-backs occur after such a final plunge. Although so far today we do have a higher low (2820 c/w 2800), I don't think that we are quite there yet.

The next time the NASDAQ closes lower, I'll be putting in an order 5% below market price anticipating that final plunge. Currently, 2700 is my entry point. What entry point do others have, and what's your rationale?

BC

[Lorne Ranger]

tbh, I think the market has now awoken to just how ridiculous previous SP levels really were.

I'd expect this to consolidate around the late 20s/early 30s until further confirmation that growth is still on track (and that the company may actually even earn a profit in future)

I dont think growth is in question to be fair, you can always hang out for the next step sure, but so far so good with growth. I know some are commenting on the figures for the "all important" US, but they showed decent growth, but yes early days there.

I think the delay in the SP bounce is just that this share has further to fall than most. The NASDAQ has finished higher last few sessions, but only due to late rallys, it still looked volatile (making for some surprisingly thrilling viewing!). I suspect people are looking to get back in to Xero but just waiting for the NASDAQ to be more convincing in its sure-footedness.

As to comments that the "sentiment has changed", this is probably true, if generalised, but sentiment is always changing, and given the wider context of nothing dire on the immediate horizon for global markets, I doubt the sentiment will not turn back to eagerness. Seems like just a good shake of the tree to me.

Disc: Holding but have sold and re-bought a couple of times on way down.

[tzbang]

perhaps there is two camps; those who bought high and have gotten a fright and won't return. And those who missed getting on board last time who have been enviously watching XRO and are now shuffling into position to buy. (Oh and probably the 3rd camp who didn't buy before and won't buy now either but can't help watching from the sidelines)

[blackcap]

If I were a XRO holder I would be concerned that on a day where PEB, SLI, GEO, WYN et al are showing nice rises after a good day on the US markets that XRO is going no where.

[Lorne Ranger]

why do you say that? its beta appears to be lower than PEB, for instance.

I think the delay in the SP bounce is just that this share has further to fall than most.

Ah a bit ambiguous language there, I dont mean I think there is further falls yet to come, I mean that based on its history many holders can still get out now with huge gains, so the pressure will be on not to do that. I suspect there are a fair few holders who have ridden this up, down, up and dooown again who may be getting sore fingers, especially the fact that the recent declines are on only moderate trades. If I recall just before it started falling there was a 100mil trade or more, so I suspect large buyers ares still holding there, but my interpretation is the smaller holders are fleeing while they can still smile at the gains. Not sure thats the case with many other similar stocks, though youre right PEB is in a similar camp.

Also XRO on the NZX is in uncharted territory, so thats bound to create the willys to uncertain holders, especially with naysayers ramping up their doom and gloom and "i told you so"s. I'm not selling again, I dont think it has much longer to suffer before finding its feet again.

[mp52]

...And those who missed getting on board last time who have been enviously watching XRO and are now shuffling into position to buy.

Well I'm committed now. Couldn't resist climbing in with a very modest holding on today's low to add to the 'there be dragons' portfolio allocation. Had a few higher limit buys in place over the last few days but pulled them after observing some of the thin volume and spread of low-ball bids. Hopefully she doesn't slip and fall significantly any time soon. Anyway I'll give'em a year or three assuming the story stays on track.

[Lorne Ranger]

If I were a XRO holder I would be concerned that on a day where PEB, SLI, GEO, WYN et al are showing nice rises after a good day on the US markets that XRO is going no where.

I am a holder, but not especially worried about its performance today in comparison to others. Im happy it has halted its slide. As people have been saying for months there is no real way to determine the real value of Xero shares, so when the hurricane comes its naturally going to be last to find its feet, and requires a bit more stability than the others I think.

I think "good day on the US markets" is an overstatement. Maybe "good" in comparison to previous week, but not yet a convincing turn. I think the NASDAQ will need to recover 3% in a week for Xero to start to really recover, so not at all surprised by todays caution.

[LegendOfRiot]

Although it hasn't performed like the Nasdaq exactly, I still believe it has the most potential to actually beat expectations compared to others techs on the nzx.

Bought in yesterday because I missed the run up a few months ago which came much faster than I expected.

[Goldstein]

If I were a XRO holder I would be concerned that on a day where PEB, SLI, GEO, WYN et al are showing nice rises after a good day on the US markets that XRO is going no where.

I suspect the makeup of the shareholders in XRO are quite different from the other companies. I could imagine a lot of US investors selling XRO to buy other US stocks at the moment.

[Lorne Ranger]

At this time, the number of stocks traded today are almost half of the daily average for Xero (193k of 400k avg), so I think there are more just taking a wait and see approach over the next few days, which is sensible. Note it is dropping a little in last hour as there is still uncertainty over what the NZSDAQ will do overnight.

[couta1]

Although it hasn't performed like the Nasdaq exactly, I still believe it has the most potential to actually beat expectations compared to others techs on the nzx.

Bought in yesterday because I missed the run up a few months ago which came much faster than I expected.
Potential wise totally agree,could we look back in a years time and see how fickle postings can be when compared to the reality of where this company is heading,I think so. Disc- Holding tight on a $42 buy in and a glass of wine each night

[winner69]

Pretty close to that 2830 Fib support ..... break through that and next Fib support is 2440. I have a new chart showing the 2440 support level

He pretty cool that Fibonacci guy. Amazing how often those magic numbers / sequences appear in nature

)

One of well known ones is associated with spirals .... bet Mr Fibonacci didn't forsee the XRO share price spiralling down as it is

But tomorrow is another day. The 2830 might be the bottom this time round. If so even 3000 will look pretty good

Well well ...bit surprised it went below the 2830 today

If not a quick recovery tomorrow (today just a bit of overshooting on the downside within the margin of error) the next Fib support is 2440

What did that analyst say a few weeks ago ......he might be written into history like Blodget and others

[couta1]

She's all the right color on the US markets folks but will XRO rally? If not after 3 straight positive days on the Nasdaq you would have to guess that this level may be Xro's current perceived value,or does everyone believe what a couple of analysts say as Gospel.

[bull....]

Like we say watch 28 support and 29 resistance now

[PlatnuM195]

She's all the right color on the US markets folks but will XRO rally? If not after 3 straight positive days on the Nasdaq you would have to guess that this level may be Xro's current perceived value,or does everyone believe what a couple of analysts say as Gospel.

I think XRO's been trading to its own beat recently, doesn't seem like positive NASDAQ days affect the SP anymore, which could help if it was disjointed from general market sentiment.

[robbo24]

She's all the right color on the US markets folks but will XRO rally? If not after 3 straight positive days on the Nasdaq you would have to guess that this level may be Xro's current perceived value,or does everyone believe what a couple of analysts say as Gospel.

I think it'll start to perk up a bit.

All this Ukraine rubbish too.. If people were that worried about superpower war then the markets would have been in decline since people were getting lined up and shot in Syria. Not that NZ media cared, more interested in the "teapot tapes".

Anyway, Nasdaq good war bad. XRO good.

[Lorne Ranger]

Good result for the NASDAQ last night, trading pattern suggesting a genuine rally, and the first clearly positive session since the (almost) correction.

I still dont expect Xero to excel today, sellers will still be motivated, but I would expect a rise. Picking 1.5%

[LegendOfRiot]

Looks like some of the more established stocks are dragging down the DOWN and S&P in the after-hours market, while the NASDAQ is still green.

[tzbang]

not much happening :mellow:

[Shore]

I'm picking a late afternoon pre-Easter rally. Based on nothing.

[Loneranger]

Reversion of fearful market participants and momentum traders to growth stocks on the rally.

You seems to have some great posts here but often you don't seem to hold any stocks... So what do you actually invest in?

--------

Just a thought... I think shorters are playing XRO. Any thoughts?

[couta1]

not much happening :mellow:
Yep pretty ho hum,all the action at Genesis

[winner69]

Down about 3.5% since I bought so not too bad

Hope that the NZD down and that YOU yourself are not down

[Lorne Ranger]

Nope, just holding for now waiting for the Kiwi to weaken furher. I've posted up on Forex thread about this so go over there and have a look.

Ugh. Flashback time. I recall a few years ago buying into Brittish pounds which at the time were giving 40P a dollar. 40P!!!! unheard of!! Couldn't fail for sure! didnt take long to reach 50p of course, so we had a camping holiday that year instead of going abroad.....

Good luck with the currencies Moose

[Shore]

Nice set of green lights to send us off into the Easter break.

[couta1]

Nice set of green lights to send us off into the Easter break.
Did someone mention that Rebound word as next weeks word of the week or perhaps Resurrection is a better choice at the moment:confused:

[Shore]

After the previous two weeks, I don't care what you call it!

[robbo24]

Problem with Xero model.
http://www.theage.com.au/small-business/finance/my-20000-mistake-20140417-36u7a.html

That's a very blunt description, KW.

This guy says himself he didn't give much thought to what he was doing.

Your accountant is in a position to brutally molest you whether you're on Xero or not.

Good point, maybe one that The Rod personally swings in to sort it out...

[couta1]

Problem with Xero model.
http://www.theage.com.au/small-business/finance/my-20000-mistake-20140417-36u7a.html
Now I know why I've done my own accounts for many years,no problem with XRO model KW,accountant clearly the problem here,must put the blame where it truly lies aye

[brend]

It sounds like the accountant didn't know what they were doing. Not sure how big the job is but my god..entering conversions balances into xero is grads work

[couta1]

If I had capital free I'd be buying now with a sell target of $32.50+
But Moosie that's still $10 below my buy in price,yeah I know what a difference another year can make:scared:

[robbo24]

If I had capital free I'd be buying now with a sell target of $32.50+

Moosie, you are a day-trader! You don't need capital...

[Harvey Specter]

If I had capital free I'd be buying now with a sell target of $32.50+

I'm not daytrading yet. That is my very short term view btw couta ;)What sort of % return do you look for when trading - Is 2% enough, after you account for commission and losing trades. What stop loss would you have on it, and would it change once it got to $32.5?

[winner69]

It sounds like the accountant didn't know what they were doing. Not sure how big the job is but my god..entering conversions balances into xero is grads work

Jeez what has the world come to ......the young ones these day hitch up a big student loan an spend a few years working hard to understand accounting and graduate ......all to enter numbers from one system into Zero

[Harvey Specter]

Problem with Xero model.
http://www.theage.com.au/small-business/finance/my-20000-mistake-20140417-36u7a.html$9k for a conversion seems over the top.

The other issue is something Xero should address. The subscription should belong to the legal entity, regardless of who subscribed for it. Or there should be a rule saying a subscriber can not withhold approval to move 'owner' when made by the directors of the entity etc.

Disc: I look after three subscriptions, all in my own name. I signed up as an 'accountant' to get the accountants discount and access to the cashbook product.

[bull....]

the 28 -29 levels worked out quite good

[Harvey Specter]

If I had capital free I'd be buying now with a sell target of $32.50+Your $32.5 has been hit. What now. ;)

[bull....]

up 14% from the 28-29 supports so far and has broken its down trend from the highs on the hourly so beinteresting to see how far it bounces back , the nasdaq low last week was a good indicator as well timed around the same as the 28 - 29 supports

[vorno]

My target has been hit, so either look for an intraday high to sell on (later on in the day when real volume enters) or reassess as to whether the next level ($35) achievable. I'd play it conservatively so look for the intraday high to sell :)

And that's how I trade!

And would you for instance, see yourself entering trade now at $32.5 to sell at your new set of $35?
EDIT: Or would you consider that a larger risk?

[couta1]

And would you for instance, see yourself entering trade now at $32.5 to sell at your new set of $35?
EDIT: Or would you consider that a larger risk?
Thank goodness I don't have to worry about these matters just sit on my hands until sometime in the distant future:cool:

[couta1]

That was long term Moose.

This is trading Moose.

Story hasn't changed. $50 will come eventually if the macro environment allows!
Yep its pretty clear that XRO is the pick of the NZ tech stocks when you look at the recovery or lack of recovery of the rest of the pack over the last few days

[Bilbo]

Yep its pretty clear that XRO is the pick of the NZ tech stocks when you look at the recovery or lack of recovery of the rest of the pack over the last few days

Hmm, what about GeoOp? It is up 45% from its low of last week.