Xro - xero

[artemis]

Quite a bit about Xero's valuation in the following NBR article, or more accurately why analysts can't determine a valuation. The article is temporarily available to all readers. (Part of their Weekend Review which takes some articles out from behind the paywall for a couple of days. They have a Saturday and Sunday email you can subscribe to which shows what's freely available for the weekend.)

http://www.nbr.co.nz/article/tech-bubble-analysts-see-warning-signs-weekend-review-dw-148037

[artemis]

And more in the NBR about cloud computing, bodes well for NZ tech companies:

"Cloud computing is the single most disruptive technology facing all organisations today. It is real and it is here; 100% of New Zealand organisations intend to invest in cloud-based services in the next 12 to 18 months according to the recent IDC Cloud Survey (IDC Asia Pacific Cloud Survey - April 2013)."

http://www.nbr.co.nz/article/tech-bubble-analysts-see-warning-signs-weekend-review-dw-148037

[Stranger_Danger]

funds flowing in from everywhere for massive valuations, a new tech company with FY14 revenues of ~$350,000 mCapped at $75M, no one can see proper valuations and is merely chasing money because the stock goes up up up, tons of new tech companies looking to list, merely mentioning SaaS, cloud, Xero means massive gains. sounds like were entering the last stages of the bull run.

while caution is very much needed, there is PLENTY of money to be taken out of the market from the fools. if you buy on dips and sell as soon as a top appears, you can lock in big profits. I have managed to make huge gains in the past 3 weeks by buying and selling with no emotional attachment. sure, stocks have gone higher thsn my sell price, but I am more than happy I even have profits and don't look at what I could have pocketed had I stuck with it. the key here is capital protection, and if you are not comfortable doing this and dont constantly watch the market then stay well away!

hope everyone makes plenty of money in the coming months :)

I have no intention of trying to make money from this bubble. Too hard, and I'm not smart enough. Worse, if I was initially successful, I'd convince myself I WAS smart enough. And that is where the "fun" really starts.

My last buy was Meridian. The highest share on my watchlist is Troy Resources, though I'd prefer to pay about 90 cents.

In addition, I've begun selective trimming of positions, many of which were bought in 2008/2009 and are showing 10-20 fold gains.

Most of these aren't anywhere near bubble territory, but are well above their long term average price levels when measured by average P/E, P/S and DY.

In terms of paying billions for losses, nope. Someone else can do that.

[JohnnyTheHorse]

Definitely a bubble in my eyes, as I have stated before. GEO has confirmed this. When the bubble pops there are going to be some serious issues for these companies, as they are not profitable and will struggle to raise anymore capital.

There is still money to be made on these, but ultimately most of these tech companies are going to end in tears (Xero will probably eventually be successful, but not before the SP gets destroyed). If you hold these companies and are buying at these prices then you are simply the bigger fool - don't let your emotion get into this and do some SENSIBLE fundamental analysis. Look to the past and you will see what happens when these things pop... no one ever learns do they.

[Dej]

Definitely a bubble in my eyes, as I have stated before. GEO has confirmed this. When the bubble pops there are going to be some serious issues for these companies, as they are not profitable and will struggle to raise anymore capital.

There is still money to be made on these, but ultimately most of these tech companies are going to end in tears (Xero will probably eventually be successful, but not before the SP gets destroyed). If you hold these companies and are buying at these prices then you are simply the bigger fool - don't let your emotion get into this and do some SENSIBLE fundamental analysis. Look to the past and you will see what happens when these things pop... no one ever learns do they.

First time posting on this thread, but couldnt agree more!

[lastmoa]

Definitely a bubble in my eyes, as I have stated before. GEO has confirmed this. When the bubble pops there are going to be some serious issues for these companies, as they are not profitable and will struggle to raise anymore capital.

There is still money to be made on these, but ultimately most of these tech companies are going to end in tears (Xero will probably eventually be successful, but not before the SP gets destroyed). If you hold these companies and are buying at these prices then you are simply the bigger fool - don't let your emotion get into this and do some SENSIBLE fundamental analysis. Look to the past and you will see what happens when these things pop... no one ever learns do they.

I guess I was a 'fool' when I was topping up my holding at $7 then $15 then even $18, when many posters were making similar remarks.
Whilst I agree some tech companies SP are inflated do not compare companies that have a proven map for revenue with the .com boom/bust. Sure do some fundamental analysis but also do some study on IT/SAAS and what Xero is trying to do here. Traditional fundamental analysis is difficult to get a true picture from, imho. If (and yes, that is an if) do achieve its goal (and more) then we will see same message postings as yours as the SP moves upwards.
If Xero just concentrated on NZ/Aust it would be a profitable company - but, as a shareholder, I am pleased that they are not.
The bubble I see is the crazy house prices in Auckland and actually any main center in NZ. Lordy, lordy. 8-)

[Stranger_Danger]

If Xero just concentrated on NZ/Aust it would be a profitable company - but, as a shareholder, I am pleased that they are not.
8-)

Fair point, and one I've seen a few times - they could make a profit if they chose.

This leads to a question for you. If they did just focus on NZ and Australia, what do you believe the current net profit would be, and what would you capitalise such a company at?

[Toasty]

Between reading this thread and the PEB thread and then the negativity on the NBR, its enough to make me want to cash up and buy Bonus Bonds. If only I wasn't so greedy.....

[CJ]

If only I wasn't so greedy.....Nothing wrong with investing in high return shares, as long as you appreciate they are high risk as well.

[samshields]

I agree Toasty. I watched Margin Call last night - There will be no million dollar bonus for me if this thing goes pop.

[Toasty]

Nothing wrong with investing in high return shares, as long as you appreciate they are high risk as well.

I don't think that have a strong enough stomach for risky stocks. I talk big but inside I am a mess.

It would not bother me if a larger player acquired Xero and took them out of play. At least then there would be a resolution and not this endless debate about whether they will succeed or fall by the wayside. I have said it before but $40 would do nicely, although when I started I swore that $10 would make me happy beyond my wildest dreams. Funny how quickly you grow used to the current situation and then decide that its too low and you want more.

[Toasty]

If we list one day toasty ill create a special class of share just for you!!!

your the man!!!

xero better not falter .. its helping caring the NZX ... all NZX companies have our hope and dreams with them..

I would appreciate that Steve. I would like something in a huge potential with no downside. Cheers.

[Silverlight]

How does the value investor value Xero at the current price? What E number is needed to justify the current price in the future? How long would you wait for this number?

Intuit is Xero's incumbent in the US market; it trades on a P/E of around 25. Xero is $3.6b odd, so the market forecasts future earnings of $144m. Intuits margins have been quite consistent for the past 5 years, around 20%. Xero $144m earnings on a 20% margin base is $720m in sales.

Average annualised ARPU is $334, so 2.1m customers at $720m in sales. What growth rate over what period is needed to get 2.1m customers? March 2012 NZ growth rate was 20% per quarter, but has now fallen to 8% Xero's 86k representing a 30% market share of the estimated SME market of 250k, in March 2012 this was 12.5%.

US quarter growth in past year has fluctuated between 20%-30%. Potential US SME market of 10m, so Xero grows at current rate (25% quarter, 140% p.a.), for 5 years, would be 2m US customers from today’s 16k, this gets it to 20% market share.
At $40 a share, there has to be higher margins, higher penetration, or higher growth rates.

Paying a lot already for revenues to increase 1000%, and then for these revenues to deliver an operating margin of 20%, but hey, it’s different this time… 



Fair point, and one I've seen a few times - they could make a profit if they chose.

This leads to a question for you. If they did just focus on NZ and Australia, what do you believe the current net profit would be, and what would you capitalise such a company at?


Stranger on my analysis of potential future earnings, at $29 a share, I would break it down to the NZ business $0.53, Australian $2.11, UK $5.27 & US $21.09.

[Stranger_Danger]

Stranger on my analysis of potential future earnings, at $29 a share, I would break it down to the NZ business $0.53, Australian $2.11, UK $5.27 & US $21.09.

From memory, my question was about what the NZ/AU earnings would be, and what multiple/valuation would the other poster place on these.

I believe you've done something different and stated how much of the present market cap you'd apply to each future opportunity, presumably by looking at the rough size of the market, your guesstimate of penetration etc, which is why the US is the dominant figure.

My question was in answer to someone who claimed their NZ/AU business could be profitable now, ie, they're talking about something in the present, rather than a dream in the distant future. I note nobody has actually answered this question.

Your answer is interesting - you've prescribed the majority of the market cap to the business that least exists at present.

My question was aimed at breaking through the "blue sky" and finding out what posters thought the current, real, could-be-profitable-if-we-chose business was worth.

Instead nobody apart from you has answered, and your answer gives the vast majority of the value to a section of the business which barely exists today.

Which...essentially proves my point. The whole thing is a blue sky bet on global domination.

Which is fair enough.

[Silverlight]

From memory, my question was about what the NZ/AU earnings would be, and what multiple/valuation would the other poster place on these.

I believe you've done something different and stated how much of the present market cap you'd apply to each future opportunity, presumably by looking at the rough size of the market, your guesstimate of penetration etc, which is why the US is the dominant figure.

My question was in answer to someone who claimed their NZ/AU business could be profitable now, ie, they're talking about something in the present, rather than a dream in the distant future. I note nobody has actually answered this question.

Your answer is interesting - you've prescribed the majority of the market cap to the business that least exists at present.

My question was aimed at breaking through the "blue sky" and finding out what posters thought the current, real, could-be-profitable-if-we-chose business was worth.

Instead nobody apart from you has answered, and your answer gives the vast majority of the value to a section of the business which barely exists today.

Which...essentially proves my point. The whole thing is a blue sky bet on global domination.

Which is fair enough.

Your quite right, I did calculate future value.

On current value NZ 85k customers ARPU of $280, revenue $24m. AU 79k customers, ARPU $381, total revenue $30m.

Now assumptions on a margins, say 50% in NZ and 35% in AU, total profit $16m. Ascribe a P/E of 25 similar to Intuit, for low growth rates, market cap of $560m, for the NZ and AU business, or $4.41 on the 127m shares on issue.

This is higher than my original pro-rata valuation model, as I allocated a 20% margin across the board, where NZ is likely to be higher given their will less competition in NZ. Trade-Me profit margins sit around 60%, so 50% is been conservative.

[BIRMANBOY]

Seductive isn't it? Sure thing no doubt.....well at least appears that way...until of course something happens and then this will plummet. Or maybe not. Are you an investor or a gambler.
The amount of $ you could make on this stock by buying in the morning and selling in the arvo is pretty impressive.

[apac]

The magic $30 has just been taken out!! Solid Volume today $13.5m so far!

This is absolutely nuts. Each time I think I've had enough and take back my capital, it goes up again, and can't resist putting money back in.

[apac]

Seductive isn't it? Sure thing no doubt.....well at least appears that way...until of course something happens and then this will plummet. Or maybe not. Are you an investor or a gambler.

I would say any holder of XRO would be a gambler.

[apac]

So where to next? $35 next week then $40 in 2 weeks?

The way it's going, it does look and feel like a bubble, but do bubbles always burst? Could it just be a really strong bubble that can become huge and stay huge?

At what price would make Rod a billionaire? How much are his shares worth now?

[apac]

So where to next? $35 next week then $40 in 2 weeks?

The way it's going, it does look and feel like a bubble, but do bubbles always burst? Could it just be a really strong bubble that can become huge and stay huge?

At what price would make Rod a billionaire? How much are his shares worth now?

Not sure if I'm right, but according to the last SSH, Rod holds 21,719,779 shares, so at $46.05, his shares will be worth over $1b.

Maybe he would agree to a takeover at around $50?

[Toasty]

I'm ok with $50

[baller18]

Hopefully PEB's SP will be like XRO's in a few years...

[apac]

Hopefully PEB's SP will be like XRO's in a few years...

or a few months :D

[Copper]

Hopefully PEB's SP will be like XRO's in a few years...

As I have said before no one on this site has the foggiest clue as to where this share is going but I do feel that PEB hasn't quite got the same vibes.....

[goldfish]

Im wondering since it broke through the 30$ if we are going to have a little run? Could be worth trading tomorrow for a couple of hours?

[Novitiate]

I would say any holder of XRO would be a gambler.

I should think that many of the holders who post here will have taken their original outlay off the table. I still have most of my holding, but have taken initial outlay plus about 400% profit. As for the rest - I'm a fan of the company and plan to keep on holding. Mostly.

[apac]

Im wondering since it broke through the 30$ if we are going to have a little run? Could be worth trading tomorrow for a couple of hours?

What does everyone think?

[Dentie]

I'd be embarrassed if I was Rod & Co...especially when comparing the numbers with the likes of FBU, RYM & other top NZ firms. Good job I'm not him, don't think I could defend the price.

Imagine what this SP is going to be like when eventually they have to deal with things like profitability & retained earnings ....

[cammo]

When large american physical accounting firms list xro as "a significant risk" to their business models in their annual reports, then there isnt really a ballpark comparison to RYM, FBU is there? They are targeting the SME, which is Cleetus + Lafawnda's Plumbing services, Ohio multiplied by all the towns and cities. Every business stills needs to deal with their accounting. Xro is making it easy and getting money out of them for doing it. Very very large market. Share price UP

[Dentie]

That's the whole point isn't it Dentie (much like PEB). When both companies become profitably the SP will be much much higher than it is now :)

Thanks Mr T.

When can I expect PEB's "pre profitable trading" share price to mimick XRO's then? :confused:

[Toasty]

anyone willing to step in and buy here? after talking to a number of software suppliers to Organisations (local bodies and Corps the cloud is being used in a private nature) with senstive information not being placed in the cloud. information that is required for public use or access is being move and split from non public. This one solution fits all might work for small business but its not a fit for all business..

so whos buying up here ?

I feel that's its overseas buyers for whom this type of share appears cheap. $30 on the NZX is a major but its a pretty small fish internationally. Combine that with the perceived potential and I guess it looks attractive.

I believe in the story wholeheartedly but I have plenty at stake without committing more.

I do wonder if the benefit of buying is diminishing however. At $1 with the potential to become $100 it is a compelling story but at $30 with the same potential....not so sure.

[CJ]

anyone willing to step in and buy here? after talking to a number of software suppliers to Organisations (local bodies and Corps the cloud is being used in a private nature) with senstive information not being placed in the cloud. information that is required for public use or access is being move and split from non public. This one solution fits all might work for small business but its not a fit for all business..

so whos buying up here ?Surfer - Xero only target SME, not the big corps, so the privacy you mention is not an issue. You may be able to confirm/disagree but the SME is more likely to be hacked that the Datacentre Xero use (and if the centre is hacked, the info of the small SME is going to have limited value).

Not buying though

[pierre]

....and on she goes - now $31.00!

[goldfish]

Well I got a few on opening, just going to trade them for a quick buck...thought it would go up after it broke through 30.
Id like to hold them like some of you, but its just to high risk for me...

[goldfish]

Good luck. Think it might fall a bit now, but then maybe head north after lunch??

Thanks...yes I was thinking similar, will hold till this afternoon and see what happens, its a fun ride whatever happens.

[tzbang]

This is my first post, although I've been a quiet reader on this forum for quite some time. My business started using Xero in 2009 and it was revolutionary in terms of our accounting practice. I wasn't a share trader then unfortunately - concentrating all my finances in my business. Although around 2011 I started thinking Xero would be a good place to buy a few shares. I didn't do it. Only now have I jumped on board late (around $26) and I'm kicking myself I didn't do it earlier!

I haven't put a lot on it but I believe in the product. My business uses it everyday and everyone I know is moving to Xero. My partner works as an account manager for another business and they use QuickBooks and it's just not as good. I really see Xero being ahead of this game and I don't know about 20 years time, speculating about that doesn't seem realistic. But I think given the backing Xero has in the USA and a board which is determined to give it everything - the potential here is huge.

I remember when people needed to do courses in MYOB to learn how to account and the only accounts jobs advertised asked for people with MYOB training. Our account manager had no accounting experience and within a matter of weeks with Xero she is running our accounts like a well oiled machine. It is that intuitive to use.

Sure, we can talk bubbles and worry about it just collapsing if they don't make it on the international stage - but that's what these sorts of investments are all about aren't they? I can't invest in a company I know little about. I'm a Xero customer, I know Xero is good and I believe they can do it and I'm prepared to wage some of my money on it.

[goldfish]

Good first post :)
I still dont have the stomach to hold a stock like this. Which is a shame, but if i had bought at much lower prices it would be a lot different.

[Lost in space]

I've just been buying 100 shares each time it clicks over a new dollar. Done this since $15. Trends your friend they say. One day, maybe, my last two or three purchases will get whipped but I will have enough profit to exit and to have done quite nicely. It's better than watching from the sidelines muttering "why didn't I..."

Don't want to experience the possibility one day that my children and grandchildren ask me was I/why didn't I invest in the NZ FaceBook, Twitter equivalent. And if that nice scenario doesn't
eventuate - well they will ask me nothing other can they have the keys to my car.

[pierre]

Good luck. Think it might fall a bit now, but then maybe head north after lunch??

So far it has "fallen" to 3150 - maybe aint gonna stop now!

[goldfish]

So far it has "fallen" to 3150 - maybe aint gonna stop now!

I like to be wrong sometimes.

[Everwood]

I'm not getting much work done today. I keep pressing the refresh button.

[CJ]

not meaning be to rude ... but javascript and SQL is hardly that .... really i do miss working in accounting ... wonderful people ...I think he was refering the user experience and output, not the technology behind it.

[tzbang]

not meanig be to rude ... but javascript and SQL is hardly that ....

But that is exactly what it is to a busy SME struggling to keep on top of accounts. It's all relative to the usefulness of a product regardless of how it works.

[Toasty]

not meanig be to rude ... but javascript and SQL is hardly that .... really i do miss working in accounting ... wonderful people ...

i would love to show toasty some research we have been doing for hmmm 10 years? ... its all bound for other shores im fraid ..we use it here of course and it terrifies my tax agent .... i do our companies accounting and returns of course ... we just use a tax agent for late filing ...hes truely pooing himself when he see the business browser running ... when it flips modes and does tax modelling hes really gets pissed ... it does what he only dreams off ... 31. 50

I would love to see this research as it appears to impact the industry I currently find myself in. This is exactly the sort of thing that is causing a rethink in the accounting industry as we find that tax and compliance work are being made easier for the average person by products like Xero and possibly your product Steve?

$31.70

[Toasty]

I'm not getting much work done today. I keep pressing the refresh button.

You are not alone. Between PEB SUM XRO and the Melbourne Cup work is a distant 5th...maybe less as now I am on Trademe looking at cool stuff to buy...

[pierre]

haha yup...you win some you lose some. I still stand by my pre market prediction of $32 though :)

Good prediction - have you got a winner for the Melbourne Cup too - lol

[Toasty]

I hear you, although as a student I can justify the sidetracks a bit more...can't I??

By the way, it seems you and I have pretty much the same portfolio Toasty....Is this a concern??

I have made some share blunders in the past so possibly not the greatest idea to be lumped in with me. However since I have started actively researching and paying attention to the market my strike rate has skyrocketed. So on the other hand....

[goldfish]

Money money money...MONEY!!!
lol sorry

[Lost in space]

100 here 100 there, seems you would have done pretty well?? My numbers say this kind of investing would have netted you about $15k profit if you sold right now??

Yes thats right. Just bought another 100 @ $32. Trying to act like a machine and keep emotion out of it (don't know if I'm winning on that one lol).

[goldfish]

Yes thats right. Just bought another 100 @ $32. Trying to act like a machine and keep emotion out of it (don't know if I'm winning on that one lol).
Good strategy, it seems to have paid off nicely for you so far, well done.

[Lost in space]

Cheers. Being an ex-broker I'm throwing all past knowledge out the window lol. But one thing I have learnt is that the trend is your friend. Average up - not wise to average down.

[Lost in space]

Stop loss set?

Nothing fancy - just 300 cents trailing behind spot price.

[goldfish]

Up and up it goes where it stops no one knows...Damn now I dont wana sell my few i bought this morning...

[Toasty]

Up and up it goes where it stops no one knows...Damn now I dont wana sell my few i bought this morning...

Stick with the plan. whatever it was....or not...

[goldfish]

Stick with the plan. whatever it was....or not...

The plan was to sell by now, or soon, but the depth is looking to good and the price is going up, gotta be flexible..

[goldfish]

3280 are we going to see 3300 I think we are...

[Toasty]

Not sure whether to retire today or tomorrow...

[Toasty]

Not sure whether to retire today or tomorrow...

[Lost in space]

Just pulled trigger @ $32 an hour or so ago. Going to have to pull the trigger and grab another 100 @ $33 it seems...

[Toasty]

Just pulled trigger @ $32 an hour or so ago. Going to have to pull the trigger and grab another 100 @ $33 it seems...

$33 up. You buy now!

[Lost in space]

$33 up. You buy now!

And just did. I thought at $19 I might get hurt I my 100 buy then. Same feeling persists but who am I to argue with the big boys moving this?

[The BOWMAN]

I predict Xero will be $55 by Xmas. Buy! Buy!! Buy!!!

[Lost in space]

Your returns are exponential as well (so long as it keeps going up).

I've given up trying to keep up now. Just went off to the bathroom for a pit stop off moderate duration to come back and find the SP is up another 40c...

Maybe try a casino job and just wee into bucket so you don't miss a 50 cent movement?

[Lost in space]

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/9363389/Xero-shares-hit-new-record

[Lost in space]

I find this comment a bit odd regarding the overseas investment:
It was not clear whether the buying was coming from Asia or Australia, he said.
Surely Ozzies would be purchasing on the ASX?? Or is there not enough liquidity over there? Looking at the volumes/depth I guess not?? I think it's Asian investors though....

I think you are right - most probably Asian. However I learnt my lesson with NZX:BRL lack of liquidity versus ASX:BRL and I buy on ASX. Maybe same in reverse?

[goldfish]

This is crazy, glad im along for the albiet short ride.

[Latama]

Does show you the impact international interest and potential can have on a NZ company when you're comparing it against those limited to NZ customers. So I guess that's one major difference Xero has on its side.. The current SP is crazy in comparison to other on the NZX, but on a global scale it's far from it. Still, it's a bit disconcerting with how fast it's going up, but ride the wave while you can! (and hopefully bail before it turns:) )

[goldfish]

This could be your turning point goldfish....
You could be right, ill wait til it falls to 3300 to make sure

[goldfish]

Easy come easy go i guess, and if i can get out at 3300 i made a weeks wages in a day, cant complain about that...
kinda sucks i have to go back to work tomorrow, work always getting in the way of making money :)

[goldfish]

awesome mate, well done!!

Thanks, im out now was a nice profit for the day...Will be watching ready to jump in again when/if the time is right...
Good luck to all holders.

[Toasty]

Thanks, im out now was a nice profit for the day...Will be watching ready to jump in again when/if the time is right...
Good luck to all holders.

Nice work. Take the rest of the week off!

[goldfish]

Nice work. Take the rest of the week off!
I wish!!!
Id just wana trade more anyway and probably loose it.

[blobbles]

A 75% rise in less than 2 weeks... value based on growth when no sales report was released showing growth...

I smell trouble.

[blobbles]

Cash flow report showed growth....

Yes, true sorry!

Based on that growth (21.6% for the 2nd quarter over the first), that's annualised at 86%. Not bad, but justifying a 75% increase in SP? Well that's anyones guess...

[Lorne Ranger]

Its days like today that make it so hard to trade on Xero. No obvious indication of such an increase. Xero firmly, and happily, in my investment portfolio. I dont have the bottle or the need to be trading this stock.

Go Xero go, fly high and far, be freeeeeeeeee!

ahem.

[JohnnyTheHorse]

Yes, true sorry!

Based on that growth (21.6% for the 2nd quarter over the first), that's annualised at 86%. Not bad, but justifying a 75% increase in SP? Well that's anyones guess...

I thought XRO was looking mighty cheap when you compare it to its peers. Just got to compare the P/S with GEO and you'll realise that XRO is WELL undervalued. Just keep that methodology in mind and nothing can go wrong... nothing.

Well done on your holding turmeric, you must be pretty pleased! Who knows where this will go in the future, just make sure you have a stop-loss and stick to it. My own belief is that the SP will do an Amazon i.e. get well ahead of itself (as it has now in my view), plummet, then soar again once the company is making actual profits. I believe that there's a very good chance that XRO will be a very successful company and hope that it is, but current prices are a bit crazy, you'd have to admit. No harm in riding the rise though.

[The BOWMAN]

You are a changed man BOWMAN ;)

This is what you were saying DEC 2012 when the SP was $7.5ish :)

You could have got a 4 fold gain if you bought back then.....

Not really. I was just being sarcastic. :-D

[Lost in space]

Only 40 cents away (that could be 30 - 90 minutes lol) from having to go into the box that houses those dog stocks to figure out how to fund the next 100 @ $34. Guess thats a good problem...

[goldfish]

That bot is working hard. Maybe i sold a little early.

[Nigel]

I thought XRO was looking mighty cheap when you compare it to its peers. Just got to compare the P/S with GEO and you'll realise that XRO is WELL undervalued. Just keep that methodology in mind and nothing can go wrong... nothing.


When I read this I thought you were being serious and was quite alarmed.

Disc: really hope you weren't being serious :)

[baller18]

All i can say is, congrats to all the holders! Hope PEB goes on its own little run soon!

[goldfish]

You got out?? In at ?? Out at ?? I missed it!

Congrats by the way!!

In at 3050 out at 3340, not bad for pushing a few buttons.
Thankyou.
Gone on another little run since then so mistimed my exit.

[Latama]

In at 3050 out at 3340, not bad for pushing a few buttons.
Thankyou.
Gone on another little run since then so mistimed my exit.

Can't dwell on that, especially with it being over the course of a few hours :) Nothing wrong with realised profits!

[Toasty]

In at 3050 out at 3340, not bad for pushing a few buttons.
Thankyou.
Gone on another little run since then so mistimed my exit.

If you made money then no mistiming, I reckon.

[Lorne Ranger]

In at 3050 out at 3340, not bad for pushing a few buttons.
Thankyou.
Gone on another little run since then so mistimed my exit.

Ha well from one perspective yes, but another perspective you made 9% in a flash and got out before you lost it, so I'd say an exit well timed. The fact that in hindsight it is not quite as much as you could have made is an addicts eye, I reckon you did very well! Congrats.

[pierre]

All i can say is, congrats to all the holders! Hope PEB goes on its own little run soon!

I'm quite happy sitting on my XRO investment made 12 months ago and as at today showing 440% gain.

Heavily invested in PEB currently up over 100% and happy to wait for at least the same again in the next 12 months.

Can't be bothered with all the drama of day trading - and don't want to pay tax on my profits either.

[apac]

I'm quite happy sitting on my XRO investment made 12 months ago and as at today showing 440% gain.

Heavily invested in PEB currently up over 100% and happy to wait for at least the same again in the next 12 months.

Can't be bothered with all the drama of day trading - and don't want to pay tax on my profits either.

You are sitting on too much paper profit, time to double your investment and halve your paper profit % :D

[apac]

Here's a wild idea, maybe Google should buy XRO

[Toasty]

Here's a wild idea, maybe Google should buy XRO

Xero should buy Intuit

[whatsup]

finally a pull back...will be interesting to see where it closes.

D Ters delight !!

[goldfish]

Maybe worth trading again tomorrow, possibly a 5-7% rise. Hard to tell at mo. Ill be watching in the morning for possibilities if i can.

[Toasty]

What a day. Share market achievements - outstanding, success at work - not much.

[apac]

Maybe worth trading again tomorrow, possibly a 5-7% rise. Hard to tell at mo. Ill be watching in the morning for possibilities if i can.

Do it. I predict it will break $35 tomorrow, get close to $36 and pull back to around $35

[goldfish]

I think today was the day mate...
Maybe...but huge volume today and breaking through 30, dip at end followed by small rise, i think there will be spillover tomorrow with another 5-7% rise, then maybe a 2% drop before levelling out. If in morning depth looks good and it opens higher then it closed today, maybe wait 1% rise to confirm trend first, then im in again, if work doesnt get in the way that is.

[apac]

Maybe...but huge volume today and breaking through 30, dip at end followed by small rise, i think there will be spillover tomorrow with another 5-7% rise, then maybe a 2% drop before levelling out. If in morning depth looks good and it opens higher then it closed today, maybe wait 1% rise to confirm trend first, then im in again, if work doesnt get in the way that is.

Do you use DB? I find the trigger function on DB pretty useful. e.g. for GEO today, I see resistance at $3, so I set my trigger at $3.05, so I didn't need to wait till it reaches $3.05 and make an order.

[Lost in space]

Rod Drury cuddling up with Intuit boss Brad Smith today hmmmmm interesting...

http://www.nbr.co.nz/article/xero-climbs-14-hit-3-billion-market-cap-ck-147314

[Everwood]

Rod Drury cuddling up with Intuit boss Brad Smith today hmmmmm interesting...

http://www.nbr.co.nz/article/xero-climbs-14-hit-3-billion-market-cap-ck-147314

It makes me wonder even more if Intuit will now buy Xero. I would have liked to been a fly on the wall when they chatted. I now have a return just over 3100%

[Everwood]

How big does XRO have to be for it to be too big for Intuit to buy though?? I had a very quick look at INTU, and the numbers I got are probably out of date but their market cap is about $20b USD and they have $1.6b cash. If they were to buy XRO tomorrow presumably they'd need to pay $50 NZD per share so is that realistic given their position? I don't know the answer….

I would be very happy with $50 per share. It would not surprise me if they try to offer $40 per share if they announced a takeover tomorrow morning. The longer they leave it the bigger the threat Xero will become. At $40 per share this would pay of my mortgage, and leave me a nice amount to invest elsewhere.

[andysh]

From being amazed by how much this has gone up, I thought it better be time to do some calcs on Xero, now from what I can see, it's going to be quite a few years (2018), even with 100% YoY growth to get close to this market cap.

All my calculations are here: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0ArdPoAEQ8E7ZdG5kUWhNaTkwbE44RkozQ0dRcy01M 3c&usp=sharing Feel free to have a look and copy if you want. I'm not looking at buying as I just can't see it supporting the price at this stage. Also I am more than happy to grant people access to edit, just PM me your email address so I can allow you.

Thanks

[Toasty]

be careful what you post on here, I got pinged for saying such things. there are many, many more people looking than you think...

Thanks Moosie. Appreciate the heads up.

I will let my work results speak for me.

[goldfish]

Do you use DB? I find the trigger function on DB pretty useful. e.g. for GEO today, I see resistance at $3, so I set my trigger at $3.05, so I didn't need to wait till it reaches $3.05 and make an order.

Yes, but reluctant to use it to buy, stop loss only, to many other variables need to be considered for me to buy.

[apac]

I would be very happy with $50 per share. It would not surprise me if they try to offer $40 per share if they announced a takeover tomorrow morning. The longer they leave it the bigger the threat Xero will become. At $40 per share this would pay of my mortgage, and leave me a nice amount to invest elsewhere.

It would be great for me if there's a takeover at $50. Then I won't have to worry about the potential of sp dropping, or that if I sell I miss out on potential gains.

[blobbles]

From being amazed by how much this has gone up, I thought it better be time to do some calcs on Xero, now from what I can see, it's going to be quite a few years (2018), even with 100% YoY growth to get close to this market cap.

All my calculations are here: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0ArdPoAEQ8E7ZdG5kUWhNaTkwbE44RkozQ0dRcy01M 3c&usp=sharing Feel free to have a look and copy if you want. I'm not looking at buying as I just can't see it supporting the price at this stage. Also I am more than happy to grant people access to edit, just PM me your email address so I can allow you.

Thanks

Nice one andy, I encourage all to post up their estimations of forward value especially :)

6.5 million customers by 2018 would be awesome for them, but I don't think it would be realistic. 111% growth for the next 5 years would be nice, but again I think a little unrealistic!

Correct me if I am wrong but the quarterly growth rates are:

2013 Q1 - 13%
2013 Q2 - 14%
2013 Q3 - 21.5%

Then guessing, averaging the last ones, Q4 maybe...

2014 Q4 ~ 16%

Which would give a current annualised growth rate of 82%? Or is everyone expecting the trend to continue (I would think it might be cyclical?), which would mean:

2013 Q4 ~ 25%

Which would give a current annual growth rate of 96%... so not quite 111% as you have recorded, but pretty close!

So the question would remain - is Xero's large growth rates going to continue (or improve), going to get worse or going to stay the same? Depending on which view you take will decide the SP in the future, obviously. Was there a post that someone made that gave yoy growth rates? Everyone must be waiting for that next Quarterly update with baited breath...

[andysh]

DISC: Just did the spreadsheet today after work and have not properly checked it.

What I have done is taken the 6 monthly accounts that they produce, and went back to 2008. At each 6 months, then I take the growth rate for the last 6 months (at September), and 12 months (at March), then project that forward by month, to give MoM growth. I have done this for customer numbers. For revenue, I have used to R/C at each 6 months and then used that for the following six months. At 1/4s I have gotten the cash flow in, and divided by the average customer rate, to get what approx the customer numbers are, then have used this growth rate as the new MoM growth. Why the subsequent years is 111% is because that is what the latest is, I have not done any curve analysis to see if the growth is decreasing at YoY and by how much, but I would give it a healthy discount rate.

Spreadsheet is pretty rough, but will see if I have time after work again tomorrow

[gv1]

What's going to happen today with this stock, sell down....or running towards $40.

[CJ]

$35

Who is the perso nhere buying everytime they hit an extra $1? this must be getting expensive. Two trades today all ready and more to come?

[CJ]

$36!!!!!!!!!!!

[Toasty]

Freaking out at work. A couple of people here as well as me are shareholders and we are just glued to the screens.

[bull....]

yea will be 50 dollars soon and the top nz company

[gv1]

Now I can see repeat of 2007..

[FarmerHamilton]

$36!!!!!!!!!!!

Forget the line " No post-code envy " from Royals:Lorde

This is turning into " No Xero envy " for all those who play in the stock market.

To think I was a "click" away from buying 20,000 at 86c in 2008 when tipped to me by a mate at First NZ .... arghhhh !! ( Lost my nerve thanks to USA market )

[Lost in space]

$35

Who is the perso nhere buying everytime they hit an extra $1? this must be getting expensive. Two trades today all ready and more to come?

Thats me! Running out of money to keep buying but not selling one single share of my PEB collection. Not even for this!

[Lost in space]

He certainly needs a quite a bit of free cash that's for sure...The other thing is I can't believe he is able to keep up with it unless he has some kind of trigger order system in place! But even then he'd be missing the boat I think on some of these movements....

Luckily my own boss and can just sit here and manually push the 'buy' button. lol

[Latama]

Thats me! Running out of money to keep buying but not selling one single share of my PEB collection. Not even for this!

Every time a new dollar is reached, I keep thinking of you and your buying tactic. Being kept very busy lately!

[Toasty]

Any buyer is going to have to be quick to orchestrate a takeover. If its indeed on the cards.

I am finding the whole thing a bit disturbing. Its either the result of the strategy being well executed or the fear of missing out. Dying to see if the US customer numbers are going through some sort of exponential growth curve or something.

[Longhaul]

I think it may have to do with the amount of press Xero is getting in the US at the moment, not because of growth or sales. The amount of love Xero gets on Twitter is also amazing - considering it is accounting software!

[gv1]

Oh.. A great company .

[CJ]

That is already the case! I don't see any thing to say it won't continue.Exponential of a small base is easy, harder once numbers increase. I expect exponential at the moment, 10 -> 20 -> 40 -> 80 ,but will it be exponential once they get over 100000 in the US?

Takeover is not an option unless they bid extremely high - over 2x current price - and that is increasing everyday.

[artemis]

The one thing that's changed in the last few days, apart from the share price of course, is Rod and Brad pictured together. Bet that didn't happen by accident. I reckon people have sniffed a merger or acquisition, and if it doesn't happen the share price will quickly drop. For the time being anyway.

[Toasty]

A large international fund manager has rated it outperform. Target $45.70. The Apple of accounting, high risk etc

[CJ]

A large international fund manager has rated it outperform. Target $45.70. The Apple of accounting, high risk etcNot worth investing now - that is only a 25% return. Good for those holding though

[Toasty]

Ah is that right? When was that and who? Cheers.

Not really keen to say as I think it was paid research to a broker client. If anyone has a full service relationship with a broker they should be able to get a copy I would imagine. It was pretty glowing though.

Not sure what the rules are around disclosing this kind of thing

[PlatnuM195]

Great Bloomberg video interview with Xero's US president:
http://www.bloomberg.com/video/we-re-making-accounting-fun-xero-s-sutherland-gDfaDrvkQ4S8EJIkiF_b2Q.html

[Everwood]

Ah is that right? When was that and who? Cheers.

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11152474

[Toasty]

Whew. Glad that's out.

[Lost in space]

Can someone give me a lift home from work? Will have to sell the car this afternoon to buy my next 100 @ $37. Or, if you see a man with big smile on his face walking from Orewa to Army Bay can you at least pick me up and we will stop at the bottle shop on route.

[Lost in space]

[QUOTE=turmeric;439234]Happy to mate!

Just extrapolated the numbers for you, think you might need to sell a bit more than your car ;)

By the time XRO hits $100 your outlay will be $494,500!



The Flip side is if you sold at that point it'll be worth $860,000!

Good luck, but you better try and find some more spare cash :)[


My cunning plan is that PEB will be roaring up so much that I can sell a few to fund the XRO. Or, maybe I sell the XRO to fund the 5,000 PEB I want to buy each 10 cent move? Need to see a psychologist cause I'm developing multiple personality disorder.

But seriously, I intend buying 5,000 each 10 cent movement upwards and repeating the XRO trick.

[blobbles]

Can someone give me a lift home from work? Will have to sell the car this afternoon to buy my next 100 @ $37. Or, if you see a man with big smile on his face walking from Orewa to Army Bay can you at least pick me up and we will stop at the bottle shop on route.

Aaaahhaaa haaa, nice one :) :)

[Everwood]

Nice article in Sydney Morning Herald.
http://www.smh.com.au/business/sharemarket-darling-xero-dubbed-apple-of-accounting-20131106-2x0m7.html

[Toasty]

Can someone give me a lift home from work? Will have to sell the car this afternoon to buy my next 100 @ $37. Or, if you see a man with big smile on his face walking from Orewa to Army Bay can you at least pick me up and we will stop at the bottle shop on route.

I hope you sold the car. $37 is up. Nice work.

[Wolf]

goldfish you trade in the end?

[Dentie]

NICE!! Add to that Xero (the 'Apple of accounting') just became NZ's second biggest listed company!!!

$39.21 and it is a $5billion company

$51.46 and it is NZ's BIGGEST listed company ;)


ha ha ha ha ha......glad to see even the regulars on this thread becoming jovial and flippant with their comments. I don't think even they can believe the XRO price. Just heard one analyst state XRO can be valued at anything between $10 and $81 per share. So, nice to see the experts are certain on the value ... only having a variance of $71 per share. Nothing like accurate valuing.

[Lost in space]

33.73 on ASX as at 5.23 NZ time. Guess o'seas investor buying over there now that NZX has closed. Gain on ASX for the day greater than on NZX. Looking good for opening tomorrow on NZX folks!

[Lost in space]

33.73 on asx as at 5.23 nz time. Guess o'seas investor buying over there now that nzx has closed. Gain on asx for the day greater than on nzx. Looking good for opening tomorrow on nzx folks!

= nzd 38.15

[Lost in space]

I hope you sold the car. $37 is up. Nice work.

For sale: 2002 Mitsi Pajero 7 seater 90k kms. Needed to funded stratospheric rocket. Takers?

[Lost in space]

As at 5.35 NZT ASX:XRO is AUD34.48 = NZD39.18. Party time my friends...

[Lost in space]

good on ya mate, Xero is going to make ya rich. just proves sticking to your guns does work. however, me thinks the strategy may be working beyond your means now. perhaps its time to start selling 100 at every dollar rise? keep the Pajero for sale, might have to replace it with a Maserati soon enough ;)

Cheers Moosie. Yeah have to unwind at some point I guess. Have been applying same approach to PEB and ATM. Wonder if I will fall off my horse one day but hey ASton Martin's don't come cheap (or the wife's shoe shopping!).

[Dentie]

I've just sold all my snk shares to get in on this now .... it bought me 1 XRO share!!

[goldfish]

goldfish you trade in the end?

Yes! I had a hard time buying this morning, put in two bids but the price skipped past them finally i got some for almost 3560, which i almost cut my losses and sold as it dropped to 3500, kicking myself for not being quicker off the mark. but now glad i didnt and i didnt sell at end of day either so im well positioned for tomorrow.
I hope everyone else did ok today, i know i wasnt the only one buying this morning, you all beat me to a better price ;)

[andysh]

From being amazed by how much this has gone up, I thought it better be time to do some calcs on Xero, now from what I can see, it's going to be quite a few years (2018), even with 100% YoY growth to get close to this market cap.

All my calculations are here: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0ArdPoAEQ8E7ZdG5kUWhNaTkwbE44RkozQ0dRcy01M 3c&usp=sharing Feel free to have a look and copy if you want. I'm not looking at buying as I just can't see it supporting the price at this stage. Also I am more than happy to grant people access to edit, just PM me your email address so I can allow you.

Thanks

Have updated the spreadsheet a little, current stating the company is worth $41.04, this is with 111% YoY growth for the next 5 years, terminal value rate at 2%, with a discount rate of 15%, and plucking expenses out of thin air.

Make of it what you would like.

[Lost in space]

I've just sold all my snk shares to get in on this now .... it bought me 1 XRO share!!

Take heart Dentle. I have 200,000 ASX:MZIO that won't even buy me 1 XRO.

[Lost in space]

Have updated the spreadsheet a little, current stating the company is worth $41.04, this is with 111% YoY growth for the next 5 years, terminal value rate at 2%, with a discount rate of 15%, and plucking expenses out of thin air.

Make of it what you would like.

andysh its hard to argue that a 2% term rate is overly optimistic it's just what that starting point is for that 2% that's hard to ascertain in my head.

[andysh]

andysh its hard to argue that a 2% term rate is overly optimistic it's just what that starting point is for that 2% that's hard to ascertain in my head.

I agree, I guess it just sort of shows the growth that needs to go on to support the share price.

[Dentie]

Take heart Dentle. I have 200,000 ASX:MZIO that won't even buy me 1 XRO.

Sorry to hear that .... Nevermind, I will now sit here and ponder what the price of my share will be once they start turning a profit ...overheard the analyst saying it is expected in 2018. Hopefully will be around $80 or $90 then.

[Wolf]

Yes! I had a hard time buying this morning, put in two bids but the price skipped past them finally i got some for almost 3560, which i almost cut my losses and sold as it dropped to 3500, kicking myself for not being quicker off the mark. but now glad i didnt and i didnt sell at end of day either so im well positioned for tomorrow.
I hope everyone else did ok today, i know i wasnt the only one buying this morning, you all beat me to a better price ;)

haha i got skipped too! Too fast for me so i stayed out. I might get in tomorrow.

[Stranger_Danger]

Sorry to hear that .... Nevermind, I will now sit here and ponder what the price of my share will be once they start turning a profit ...overheard the analyst saying it is expected in 2018. Hopefully will be around $80 or $90 then.

God, I can't believe we're back here.

If it turns a profit in 2018, the EPS will be 10 cents, it'll be 8 bucks a share, on a P/E of 80, if you're really, really, really lucky.

[Southern_Belle]

What a white knuckle ride Xero has given me.....beats working for a living, just made redundant 2 months ago which has allowed me to enjoy my investment.

[Shore]

What is scary is how much demand there is based on a little interview Sutherland did with Bloomberg. Sure that's big exposure but it was only a couple of minutes of screentime, just imagine what a NASDAQ IPO process would do to the demand for this stock and the interest it would generate. Absolutely mind-boggling.

[Shore]

In fact, I bet behind closed doors this process is being fast-tracked as we speak. Investors are clearly in love with this stock and the demand is there, so if they needed to 'test the water' so to speak then I think they well and truly have their answer. Little downside to bringing plans forward IMHO.

[PlatnuM195]

Would be great to have a fast tracked NASDAQ listing. Is there any indication on how a listing would affect the share price, based on previous companies that listed?

[Shore]

Credit Suisse reckons a ‘‘tipping point is imminent’’ in Australia where Xero has now reached a ‘‘virtuous cycle of brand awareness’’

If anything else, a NASDAQ listing would be a high-profile cost effective marketing exercise that would give Xero unparalleled weight and exposure in the US market. In my mind it is a crucial step in winning that US market.

[Shore]

Would be great to have a fast tracked NASDAQ listing. Is there any indication on how a listing would affect the share price, based on previous companies that listed?

It's difficult to draw comparisons I guess because other notable listings (Google, Facebook etc) were all private companies before going public. Xero is already public and it would be dual-listing arrangement (I presume). I think the listing will just create heightened brand awareness, more exposure, and thus more demand for the stock. Given Xero's track record, strength of product, global market potential - personally I think the SP would go ballistic.

[Shore]

Yes but didn't that really only hit the airwaves today? Or was it privately released to clients in the past few days hence the big uptrend we've been seeing?

[winner69]

Methinks time to commission Henry Blodget to come up with a valuation.

That'll move the shareprice

[CJ]

Would be great to have a fast tracked NASDAQ listing. Is there any indication on how a listing would affect the share price, based on previous companies that listed?have a look at Nasdaq rules - they need 100m revenue to list on the right part of the exchange.

[Stranger_Danger]

have a look at Nasdaq rules - they need 100m revenue to list on the right part of the exchange.

Ssssh don't remind people that Xero doesn't do 100m in revenue.

People had completely forgotten about revenue and heaven forbid, profits, and were starting to use more rational valuation metrics, namely, the amount of time spent on Bloomberg TV, and the Price/Sales comparison with GeoOp.

[winner69]

Ssssh don't remind people that Xero doesn't do 100m in revenue.

People had completely forgotten about revenue and heaven forbid, profits, and were starting to use more rational valuation metrics, namely, the amount of time spent on Bloomberg TV, and the Price/Sales comparison with GeoOp.

That's why Henry needs to do a report on XRO

Just the other day he said twitter ipo will be huge because it losses money ...heaps of money. Facebook left their ipo too late ...they were making money .....stupid eh

[Stranger_Danger]

That's why Henry needs to do a report on XRO

Just the other day he said twitter ipo will be huge because it losses money ...heaps of money. Facebook left their ipo too late ...they were making money .....stupid eh

I can't believe Henry is still around. The more things change, the more they stay the same.

[Latama]

Set to crack $38 on opening.. another exciting day ahead!

[PlatnuM195]

I don't know why but whenever there's a new 12 month target, it seems to hit that target within weeks.

[Latama]

Set to pass $5b cap on opening. $1b up over last couple of days... not bad !

[bull....]

10$ to go haha

[CJ]

So next milestones are:
- $5B
- Rod being worth $1B
- $6B
- Largest co on NZX

Anything else significant?

[Citizen Erased]

I've been watching the Xero share price for quite some time now in total disbelief. Yesterday I decided I wanted to be in on the action, but without risking much, so bought a paltry $4,000 worth just for ****s and giggles. I put a stop loss in place as well. Hard to believe that less than 24 hours later I'm up 8.22% on the trade. :D

Just thinking to myself, imagine if I'd bought Xero shares at the beginning of the year instead of DIL and OGC. Things would be quite different now! Thank goodness I have PEB in my portfolio, otherwise that green up arrow would be a bright red one pointing the other way.

[PlatnuM195]

Some more confirmation of increasing mindshare in the US market as well as investors.

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11153006

[baller18]

$41! whoaaaaaaa

[gv1]

Do you think NZ has produced only one like this or we will be also saying Whoaaa to peb?

[baller18]

Do you think NZ has produced only one like this or we will be also saying Whoaaa to peb?
I don't know if PEB will turn out to be like xero, but at the moment, on the NZX, PEB has the largest potential to do a xero. If PEB's SP rise to half what the share price is for xero right now, I'll be stoked!!

[winner69]

Amazing stuff eh ...just wait until Henry's report comes out

I have never held XRO ...you guys nearly convinced to buy in July when it was 17 bucks ....but bough MBE instead ....now they seem to have run out steam might have to switch to XRO ....at least will be able to buy 5 times as many as I could in July ha ha

But if looking for multi naggers XRO doesnt look too promising ....of am I wrong?

[gv1]

Stoked or fainted by the ooo's at the end of bank balance.

[winner69]

I see that Henry has got Jeff Bezos to invest in his latest venture ...... XRO really should contact him to do a piece

[Toasty]

Amazing stuff eh ...just wait until Henry's report comes out

I have never held XRO ...you guys nearly convinced to buy in July when it was 17 bucks ....but bough MBE instead ....now they seem to have run out steam might have to switch to XRO ....at least will be able to buy 5 times as many as I could in July ha ha

But if looking for multi naggers XRO doesnt look too promising ....of am I wrong?

Hard to imagine that it might triple but stranger things are happening as I type this.

I wonder at the possibility of some sort of alliance perhaps with Intuit or... an ill-formed thought but maybe it would be easier to work with Xero than to try and reinvent your own software?

[whatsup]

SCARRY ehy !!!

[Toasty]

I am finding this whole run vaguely disturbing. There is something not right about earning a years before tax salary in 3 days.

Hopefully I am in just the right place at the right time.

[Wolf]

Back to 39750 big seller?

[whatsup]

Back to 39750 big seller?

Wolfy you mean $39.75 NOT $397.50 big difference!

[Jay]

Know the feeling C E
Thought about it when it was a shade under $20, signals fired for me, but did not act, and again at $28 or so, no, too expensive it must fall back shortly yeah right.

Wish I had bought a few instead of something else, that is still wallowing doing not a lot.
However have some PEB which I sold enough to get my capital back :-)

[Wolf]

Wolfy you mean $39.75 NOT $397.50 big difference!
Where did you get $397.50 from?

[Wolf]

Know the feeling C E
Thought about it when it was a shade under $20, signals fired for me, but did not act, and again at $28 or so, no, too expensive it must fall back shortly yeah right.

Wish I had bought a few instead of something else, that is still wallowing doing not a lot.
However have some PEB which I sold enough to get my capital back :-)

Haha same for me Jay. Almost bought at $15 and had a laugh when it reached $24 thinking the price was crazy. Now here i am buying in the $30-$40.

[Lost in space]

wonder if lost has sold the Mitsi, cat, dog, wife, girlfriend, mistress and kitchen sink yet to buy more Xero? what will he sell tomorrow then. hear souls are cheap these days"

Sold all my ATM to keep feeding this hungry animal - it sure has an appetite! (yeah I know - shouldn't have sold ATM). But trends your friend and all that. Just have 100,000 PEB left now and not selling those so its a matter of culling those BRL now...

[whatsup]

Where did you get $397.50 from?



Priuce not volumn, or am I up the wrong tree ?

[Wolf]

Priuce not volumn, or am I up the wrong tree ?
Haha i think we both are. I copied and pasted the price from ASB and the decimal point got lost somewhere :confused:.

[whatsup]

Haha i think we both are. I copied and pasted the price from ASB and the decimal point got lost somewhere :confused:.

WILL WE FINISH TODAY LOWER THAN LAST NIGHTS FINISH , looking that way, $37.30 !!

[Beagle]

Its official, we now have the biggest BUBBLE of all time on ther NZX. Nobody say POP.

[Wolf]

I don't think so $38.75 seem's like a strong resistance point but hell all it take's is one big buyer or 1 big seller to change the direction as shown at $41.

[Cricketfan]

Haha same for me Jay. Almost bought at $15 and had a laugh when it reached $24 thinking the price was crazy. Now here i am buying in the $30-$40.

It seems crazy all right. I'm still finding my feet when it comes to investing so I only took a nibble when the SP was $21 (thinking I had already missed the boat), now I wish I had the guts to buy more! I'm only in it for the long term though. Is it still worth buying any now with the SP $40+? I know it will probably keep rising in the short term, but as I'm not a trader I won't be locking any profits for a while. Or would I be better off topping up some PEB? Decisions decisions.

[baller18]

It seems crazy all right. I'm still finding my feet when it comes to investing so I only took a nibble when the SP was $21 (thinking I had already missed the boat), now I wish I had the guts to buy more! I'm only in it for the long term though. Is it still worth buying any now with the SP $40+? I know it will probably keep rising in the short term, but as I'm not a trader I won't be locking any profits for a while. Or would I be better off topping up some PEB? Decisions decisions.
PEB could easily become a multibagger, whereas if you got in XRO now, a multibagger is very unlikely. One bagger at the most...

[JohnnyTheHorse]

Dropping very very fast. Watch for a bounce off yesterdays close. If it crashes through, then short termers should be out!

[Beagle]

There's nothing all that special about the siftware and they're up against some massive established players in the U.S.
In my experience as an accountant for 32 years, customers are very relutant to change and adopt new accounting programms and proceedures, there's heaps of intellectual horsepower and training required for management and staff and the old adage of if it ain't broke why fix it ? is something that's more often than not trotted out as a completly plausible reason why change doesn't happen.
Anyone who thinks profitable growth in the U.S. will be easy is dreaming.
With their level of growth, sales and cash burn and the way they're losing money, there's no rational explanation why a company that was worth $20 a share a few weeks ago should have doubled in price. So its quite clear what we are talking about here is irrational enthusiasm, plain and simple.
This stock is trading on pure hope, blue sky / cloud, momentum and last but certainly not least, the greater fool theory.
The funny thing about dreams is they do not come with parachutes and when this thing turns people will get seriously burned.
A wise man hedges his bets and a profit is not made until its realised.
I should add that I have no intention of buying this share, even if there is a massive correction and only commented at the invitation to do so by another member at Monday night's Auckland gathering.
...but what would I know...from my 32 years experience as an accountant, I'm sure the momentum players are far better informed...

[Nigel]

It's falling as quick as it rose! (not to the same magnitude yet, but a pretty steep decline on the chart today).
If stop losses are hit, it could go down heavily. Then again, we've seen it fall then rise time after time.

Disc: watching safely from the sidelines.

[Wolf]

It seems crazy all right. I'm still finding my feet when it comes to investing so I only took a nibble when the SP was $21 (thinking I had already missed the boat), now I wish I had the guts to buy more! I'm only in it for the long term though. Is it still worth buying any now with the SP $40+? I know it will probably keep rising in the short term, but as I'm not a trader I won't be locking any profits for a while. Or would I be better off topping up some PEB? Decisions decisions.

Decisions alright. I couldn't sleep at night holding XERO so i'm just trading bought 148 shares at $39.1 sold at $41.0.
Made back my PGW losses so i'm happy and looking at the drop i'm stoked!

[whatsup]

WILL WE FINISH TODAY LOWER THAN LAST NIGHTS FINISH , looking that way, $37.30 !!

Lower already at $36.00, VERY VERY SCARY, is everyones STOPS in place,

[Beagle]

There's nothing all that special about the software and they're up against some massive established players in the U.S.
In my experience as an accountant for 32 years, customers are very relutant to change and adopt new accounting programms and proceedures, there's heaps of intellectual horsepower and training required for management and staff and the old adage of if it ain't broke why fix it ? is something that's more often than not trotted out as a completly plausible reason why change doesn't happen.
Anyone who thinks profitable growth in the U.S. will be easy is dreaming.
With their level of growth, sales and cash burn and the way they're losing money, there's no rational explanation why a company that was worth $20 a share a few weeks ago should have doubled in price. So its quite clear what we are talking about here is irrational enthusiasm, plain and simple.
This stock is trading on pure hope, blue sky / cloud, momentum and last but certainly not least, the greater fool theory.
The funny thing about dreams is they do not come with parachutes and when this thing turns people will get seriously burned.
A wise man hedges his bets and a profit is not made until its realised.
I should add that I have no intention of buying this share, even if there is a massive correction and only commented at the invitation to do so by another member at Monday night's Auckland gathering.
When this bubble bursts let it be known that you were warned.

[Cricketfan]

There's nothing all that special about the siftware and they're up against some massive established players in the U.S.
In my experience as an accountant for 32 years, customers are very relutant to change and adopt new accounting programms and proceedures, there's heaps of intellectual horsepower and training required for management and staff and the old adage of if it ain't broke why fix it ? is something that's more often than not trotted out as a completly plausible reason why change doesn't happen.
Anyone who thinks profitable growth in the U.S. will be easy is dreaming.
With their level of growth, sales and cash burn and the way they're losing money, there's no rational explanation why a company that was worth $20 a share a few weeks ago should have doubled in price. So its quite clear what we are talking about here is irrational enthusiasm, plain and simple.

Sorry if you've stated this before, but what would say is a fair value for this share once the so-called bubble pops?

[Wolf]

Its official, we now have the biggest BUBBLE of all time on ther NZX. Nobody say POP.
Geez Roger you just had to say POP...

[robbo24]

Lower already at $36.00, VERY VERY SCARY, is everyones STOPS in place,

I got out at 41.00... This is intriguing

[baller18]

So lucky, I controlled my emotions... tech stocks... way too volatile for us newbies...

[Toasty]

Ok its stopped. Everyone back in!

[oldmate]

There's nothing all that special about the siftware and they're up against some massive established players in the U.S.
In my experience as an accountant for 32 years, customers are very relutant to change and adopt new accounting programms and proceedures, there's heaps of intellectual horsepower and training required for management and staff and the old adage of if it ain't broke why fix it ? is something that's more often than not trotted out as a completly plausible reason why change doesn't happen.
Anyone who thinks profitable growth in the U.S. will be easy is dreaming.
With their level of growth, sales and cash burn and the way they're losing money, there's no rational explanation why a company that was worth $20 a share a few weeks ago should have doubled in price. So its quite clear what we are talking about here is irrational enthusiasm, plain and simple.
This stock is trading on pure hope, blue sky / cloud, momentum and last but certainly not least, the greater fool theory.
The funny thing about dreams is they do not come with parachutes and when this thing turns people will get seriously burned.
A wise man hedges his bets and a profit is not made until its realised.
I should add that I have no intention of buying this share, even if there is a massive correction and only commented at the invitation to do so by another member at Monday night's Auckland gathering.
...but what would I know...from my 32 years experience as an accountant, I'm sure the momentum players are far better informed...

Roger I am an accountant and Xero has got a great product, the thing is if you don't like that the SP has hit the roof and I guessing you are not in on it, granted bubbles burst and you have to bet what you can afford to lose

[robbo24]

Ok its stopped. Everyone back in!

After you, my good man.

[Toasty]

I wondering if the CS First Analyst is sweating right now. He gives it a target of $45.70 and it promptly drops through the floor...sort of..

Somehow I can't help but feel that some analyst reports are just telling people what they want to hear, Kind of like property valuers.

[GRIFFIN]

OOPS is this a healthy correction.

[brettdale]

And to think I was going to buy when they first listed, but went with sealegs insteads.

[Citizen Erased]

Stop loss kicked in. Well, that was an entertaining 24 hours of XRO ownership.

[tzbang]

wow.. what the hell is going on today

[whatsup]

After you, my good man.

Dead cat bounce------STAY OUT/AWAY !!

[Beagle]

Geez Roger you just had to say POP...

Only because I was specifically invited to comment.


Roger I am an accountant and Xero has got a great product, the thing is if you don't like that the SP has hit the roof and I guessing you are not in on it, granted bubbles burst and you have to bet what you can afford to lose

Its a good product but many people stick with the devil they know and there's a very, very, very wide range of accounting programms out there. The way this stock is being priced you'd think they have a completly new way of inventing the wheel that makes all other accounting programms redundent !! I invest in high quality profitable companies with a proven business model and strong growth prospects. Remember the tech bubble ?, quite obviously some don;t.

I wondering if the CS First Analyst is sweating right now. He gives it a target of $45.70 and it promptly drops through the floor...sort of..

Somehow I can't help but feel that some analyst reports are just telling people what they want to hear, Kind of like property valuers.
No analyst can accuratly value this stock and anyone pretending to do so is doing exactly what you're suggesting. Any valuation is based on a whole range of expectations and future theoretical projections, any of which could be wildly inaccurate with an unproven company such as this. Pure speculation plain and simple.

Now I'll repeat, I was invited to comment by another member at the Auckland meeting, and that's the only reason i did. Obviously I've been wasting my time and people only want to hear good news so i'll leave it at that.

[CJ]

Scary - it has dropped to levels not seen since yesterday lunch time!!!

[lastmoa]

I wondering if the CS First Analyst is sweating right now. He gives it a target of $45.70 and it promptly drops through the floor...sort of..

Somehow I can't help but feel that some analyst reports are just telling people what they want to hear, Kind of like property valuers.

Don''t think the SC analyst would sweat on one day's trading. nothing has changed on the Xero story so the drop is just traders doing what the do best - trading.
As for the nervous comments on this thread about people sweating because it moves downward intra-day. This stiock is not for you - stick with blue chips.
Rogers comments made me laugh. Appreciate that you are an experienced accountant but you do not dictate what the customers does. If a customer finds that a competitor is more efficient (and thus productive) from using a better accounting system and his/her 'dinosaur'accountant refuses to supply them what they want, ten guess what. Some times a disruptive technology will come along in even the most conservative industries. There will always be some that refuse to adopt (or even explore the potential profitability gains) of a disruptive technology at their peril. Hell, you even see that in retail v online (Jerry Harvey springs to mind).

[Shore]

If anything these corrections prove that this is not a bubble. The corrections are just honest profit taking for investors who are happy to take back some hefty gains. I imagine all the big new investors from overseas who have purchased up big are sitting tight and ready for this story to play out long term.

[Latama]

Scary - it has dropped to levels not seen since yesterday lunch time!!!
Haha! End of the world material in the world of Xero.

If I'm not mistaken, today may be the largest volume/value ever traded? Just touched over 900k/$35m so far.

[Cricketfan]

Appreciate that you are an experienced accountant but you do not dictate what the customers does. If a customer finds that a competitor is more efficient (and thus productive) from using a better accounting system and his/her 'dinosaur'accountant refuses to supply them what they want, ten guess what.

Also given that they are targetting small/medium companies I would imagine switching accounting packages wouldn't be a big a deal unlike the huge companies that use SAP etc.

[lastmoa]

If anything these corrections prove that this is not a bubble. The corrections are just honest profit taking for investors who are happy to take back some hefty gains. I imagine all the big new investors from overseas who have purchased up big are sitting tight and ready for this story to play out long term.

Agree. It is nice to have stock corrections. Follow the story not the intra-day action. (unless you re a pure trader).

[blueswan]

If only they have Options on that stock. I would sell Butterfly for this month and hope volatilty perks up.

[Wolf]

Roger i was joking about you saying Pop.

I appreciate your comments and am sure everyone else does. If people only want to hear good new's they shouldn't be investing.
"One of the funny things about the stock market is that every time one person buys, another sells, and both think they are astute." - William Feather.
You would be stupid to ignore the other side.

I don't know if we are in tech bubble but i do think people are investing on dodgy fundamentals I can't and i don't see how anyone can get a decent valuation on Xero but if you look at GEO you can see how over priced it is and that something isn't right. It seem's people are investing just because Xero is going up. There are so many beginners investing in Xero right now me included who don't realize how risky it in fact is.

Although regardless of what i or anyone says at the end of the day the market is right and although i disagree with Xero's price it is going up astronomically. So instead of missing out on this opportunity , i've started doing some day trading using stop losses and being extremely careful selling out if something doesn't seem right like today when i exited at $41 because i didn't like the look of the depth on XRO.asx.

Anyway that's just my 2 cents don't rip me to shreds.

Disc: This is just my opinion take it with a cup of salt and don't trade based on what i say.

[Toasty]

Now I'll repeat, I was invited to comment by another member at the Auckland meeting, and that's the only reason i did. Obviously I've been wasting my time and people only want to hear good news so i'll leave it at that.

Don't go. Personally I like to hear all opinions good or bad. Especially when presented rationally. I also like flippant remarks.

I work for an accounting firm as a Business development person. Xero would have to be the best thing to have happened to us since accountants were invented. The customers love it because its easy to use and if something isn't right they can let us know electronically and we fix it on the fly. Conversations around their business are happening more often and because the information is almost real time we are generally talking about the same thing.

Virtually the whole practice is Xero based and if clients don't want to change we put them on Xero at our end and go to work on getting them to dump their current software. Usually this is after a couple of meetings and a demo. Vcitims this week. Two MYOB clients and a Freshbooks user. All blown away by the ease of use.

They also don't see the cost as its bundled into the service.

Things like invoicing customers directly through Xero and integrating payroll systems are also adding to the appeal. Potentially things could go to the next level if Xero start integrating directly with banking systems and other stuff I haven't even begun to comprehend.

[tzbang]

I have to say, as my first time share trading - this IS fun isn't it?

[bull....]

I have to say, as my first time share trading - this IS fun isn't it?

yea wish their was 5 dollar swings everyday

[tzbang]

Also, I'll add ontop of my previous post about the fact that Xero was a revolution for our business; the fact that our accounts are keep under control, that staff without professional accounting experience are now managing our accounts with ease, and our accountant who is one of the biggest firms in my city has access to our Xero in real time. They love it - they have flyers and promotions in the accountancy for Xero and pushing all their customers to move over.

I can't really say what the American reaction will be. But I do feel that moving to the Xero system isn't the upheaval that is predicted by Roger. It's remarkably simple. When we switched it was a matter of days and we were just away with it. I see no reason that US SME's wouldn't be as flexible to change as we are.

I'm one of these newb investors that's been talked about - getting involved in a tech stock when 'I don't know what I'm doing.' But at least I do know about the product through and through which is why I am perhaps more comfortable with backing them and seeing what happens.

[Beagle]

Roger i was joking about you saying Pop.

I appreciate your comments and am sure everyone else does. If people only want to hear good new's they shouldn't be investing.
"One of the funny things about the stock market is that every time one person buys, another sells, and both think they are astute." - William Feather.
You would be stupid to ignore the other side.

I don't know if we are in tech bubble but i do think people are investing on dodgy fundamentals I can't and i don't see how anyone can get a decent valuation on Xero but if you look at GEO you can see how over priced it is and that something isn't right. It seem's people are investing just because Xero is going up. There are so many beginners investing in Xero right now me included who don't realize how risky it in fact is.

Although regardless of what i or anyone says at the end of the day the market is right and although i disagree with Xero's price it is going up astronomically. So instead of missing out on this opportunity , i've started doing some day trading using stop losses and being extremely careful selling out if something doesn't seem right like today when i exited at $41 because i didn't like the look of the depth on XRO.asx.

Anyway that's just my 2 cents don't rip me to shreds.

Disc: This is just my opinion take it with a cup of salt and don't trade based on what i say.


Thanks. This is a momentum play, pure and simple and people have completly forgotten about fundamentals. I appreicate some big players backed the company very recently at $20, only time will tell if they're right and i was wrong at $13 and again since then but there is a serious amount of froth in this stock, surely any seasoned experienced investor remembers the tech bubble of 2000 / 2001 and can see it will will take many many years for this company to become even marginally profitable let alone earn a level of profit sufficient to justofy its present market capitalisation, which now exceeds Ryman, a company with arguably the most enviable growth record on the N.Z. market.



Don't go. Personally I like to hear all opinions good or bad. Especially when presented rationally. I also like flippant remarks.

I work for an accounting firm as a Business development person. Xero would have to be the best thing to have happened to us since accountants were invented. The customers love it because its easy to use and if something isn't right they can let us know electronically and we fix it on the fly. Conversations around their business are happening more often and because the information is almost real time we are generally talking about the same thing.

Virtually the whole practice is Xero based and if clients don't want to change we put them on Xero at our end and go to work on getting them to dump their current software. Usually this is after a couple of meetings and a demo. Vcitims this week. Two MYOB clients and a Freshbooks user. All blown away by the ease of use.

They also don't see the cost as its bundled into the service.

Things like invoicing customers directly through Xero and integrating payroll systems are also adding to the appeal. Potentially things could go to the next level if Xero start integrating directly with banking systems and other stuff I haven't even begun to comprehend.

Its not hard to beat the MYOB system, easy pickings there. Clients fall into two distinct camps, those that will adopt new technology and those that are happy with the devil they know. Generally speaking people hate change. As stated above, there are many great systems out there and Xero don;t have the mortgage on all the good idea's nor is there really a good business moat around their systems and proceedures. You don't think other big software players will learn, adapt, change and improve their systems...
$4Billion market capitalisation for an accounting software company buring cash and making growing losses...really I thought I'd seen everything during the last tech bubble LOL Anyone old enough to remember when Goats were $3,000 a head ? I remember as a young accountant sitting down with a goat farming client and asking how he thought Goat prices at the time were justified...what is it that they produce that makes them worth $3,000 a head I asked...anyway sorry, I digress, .but because its cloud based services it must be right...fear of missing out is all that's left driving this astonishing rise...anyway I suppose I'd better do some real work.

[Iolite]

I've been watching the rise of Xero for the last few months with continued amazement.
As a beginner investor I am working my way through some classic books and all would say stay well clear of this stock, which I have done.

Reading through one book today (by a certain intelligent investor) I happened to come across these sentences and couldn't help but think of Xero:

"The speculative public is incorrigible. In financial terms it cannot count beyond 3. It will buy anything, at any price, if there seems to be some "action" in progress. It will fall for any company identified with "franchising", computers, electronics, science, technology, or what have you, when the particular fashion is raging."

I certainly don't claim to be experienced in investing and I'm not saying money cannot be made here, but it seems to me investors should tread very carefully - this stock is currently valued entirely on speculation.

[lastmoa]

...but because its cloud based services it must be right...fear of missing out is all that's left driving this astonishing rise...anyway I suppose I'd better do some real work.

Fair enough comments Roger.
Yes, people do tend to resist change when there is not a compelling enough reason to change. BUt with the movement to the Internet and the mobility (and other advantages it gives) this is compelling enough for many. Yes, Xero does have 1st mover advantage and is making the most of this, but you are correct. The main players are endeavoring to play catch up. Time will tell how it plays out but my money is with Xero on this one.
Goats are only worth $3000 a head when one can see where the $4000 a head price is going to come from. .dot com's could never answer that. imho.

[winner69]

Thanks. This is a momentum play, pure and simple and people have completly forgotten about fundamentals. I appreicate some big players backed the company very recently at $20, only time will tell if they're right and i was wrong at $13 and again since then but there is a serious amount of froth in this stock, surely any seasoned experienced investor remembers the tech bubble of 2000 / 2001 and can see it will will take many many years for this company to become even marginally profitable let alone earn a level of profit sufficient to justofy its present market capitalisation, which now exceeds Ryman, a company with arguably the most enviable growth record on the N.Z. market.




Its not hard to beat the MYOB system, easy pickings there. Clients fall into two distinct camps, those that will adopt new technology and those that are happy with the devil they know. Generally speaking people hate change. As stated above, there are many great systems out there and Xero don;t have the mortgage on all the good idea's nor is there really a good business moat around their systems and proceedures. You don't think other big software players will learn, adapt, change and improve their systems...
$4Billion market capitalisation for an accounting software company buring cash and making growing losses...really I thought I'd seen everything during the last tech bubble LOL Anyone old enough to remember when Goats were $3,000 a head ? I remember as a young accountant sitting down with a goat farming client and asking how he thought Goat prices at the time were justified...what is it that they produce that makes them worth $3,000 a head I asked...anyway sorry, I digress, .but because its cloud based services it must be right...fear of missing out is all that's left driving this astonishing rise...anyway I suppose I'd better do some real work.

How much are goats worth now?

Deer were pretty expensive back then as well weren't they?

[Beagle]

Fair enough comments Roger.
Yes, people do tend to resist change when there is not a compelling enough reason to change. BUt with the movement to the Internet and the mobility (and other advantages it gives) this is compelling enough for many. Yes, Xero does have 1st mover advantage and is making the most of this, but you are correct. The main players are endeavoring to play catch up. Time will tell how it plays out but my money is with Xero on this one.
Goats are only worth $3000 a head when one can see where the $4000 a head price is going to come from. .dot com's could never answer that. imho.
That client gave me a very puzzled look and a frown when I asked about the $3,000 goat price and then paused and reflected and then said, but they've been going up so fast it must be a good investment.


How much are goats worth now?

Deer were pretty expensive back then as well weren't they?
http://www.ird.govt.nz/technical-tax/determinations/livestock/national-averages/livestock-nationalavemarketvalues-2013.html
There you go. Anyone who wants a lesson in what can happen to flavour of the month values can click on that link and yes, a lot of people lost their shirts by investing in Deer. I know a couple personally who lost everything and a big client that went under in a firm I used to work for.

People's lives have been changed by the incredible increase in XRO's price, which is great provided they realise its not a realised profit until its actually sold. If the company doesn't deliver really meaningful real profits in the due course of time many people's lives will be seriously affected the other way too and I've seen it all before. I guess the reason i was invited to comment was to try and put an old head on young shoulders in terms of adding some perspective to this tech stock, perhaps based on my long accounting career or length of time in the market or perhaps that member just wanted to sit back and enjoy the debate, who knows.
Unfortunatly its a well known truism that old heads cannot be put on young shoulders and people have to learn for themselves. Sorry but herein ends Psychology 101 lecture for today, gotta get some real work done and more than a couple of bill-able hours, which really is a pathetic effort for a whole day's "work" I would be the first to acknowledge the folly of expecting my favourite stock Summerset to go up every day :), although I suspect some may well be taking that approach with a certain other stock.

[winner69]

Just heard on radio that $600m has been wiped off the Xero market cap .... witht he emphasis on the word wiped like it is some catastrophe

Can't be right

[JohnnyTheHorse]

She's taking another tumble! Bring up an intraday chart and you will see where the support is. $35, $34, $33 and then $30. Happy trading :t_up:

[robbo24]

Just heard on radio that $600m has been wiped off the Xero market cap .... witht he emphasis on the word wiped like it is some catastrophe

Can't be right

Uh oh... All of the lay-people out there will be panicking. Especially after the "XERO IS APPLE" comments from yesterday.

The radio should have at least said "600m was added yesterday, it reached an all time high, then 600m was deducted accordingly..."

[baller18]

What a correlation between GEO and XRO...

[blackcap]

Just heard on radio that $600m has been wiped off the Xero market cap .... witht he emphasis on the word wiped like it is some catastrophe

Can't be right

That is ridiculous. This stock is only going up and cannot go down. It is impossible that it goes down. Xero is operating in a new paradigm and its product is so superior it cannot fail. This is just an aberration and we will see $40+ again. (very much tounge in cheek) Definitely one for those praying or with a lot of faith. And down another 50 cent. Boy what a load of swings today. From ecstasy to despair methinks for some.

[pierre]

Down to $34.50 - wonder if any of the goats that bought at $41 have sold out yet?

Discl: Long term holder at $6.30 - hanging on and enjoying the roller coaster ride.

[bull....]

what a swing lol , i may sell my old car to buy another 100 shares im sure next week ill be able to buy a newer one

[blueswan]

on the ASX security info with a 4B market cap, that 3.5 dollar movement from yesterday's close would amount to about $446 M Aus Dollars or slightly over 500 M Kiwi.

[Xerof]

But its only a small bite

[Copper]

Down to $34.50 - wonder if any of the goats that bought at $41 have sold out yet?

Discl: Long term holder at $6.30 - hanging on and enjoying the roller coaster ride.

Not unlike the move from 1875 to under 15 bucks.That gave the shudders also.Think an odd day trader may have had his last day.....

[tzbang]

Funny how it was only moments ago that everyone celebrated $35 and within such a short time bemoans a return to $35

[blackcap]

$33.20 now if the Australian price is anything to go by.

Sorry 10 mins later and XRO is $31.75 in Australia.

[Lorne Ranger]

Hardly unexpected really, and new buyers will be waiting til the trader cash in bottoms out then most likely buying back in back up to advancing levels. Xero shares are doing great but they are hardly immune to trading.

[Beagle]

That is ridiculous. This stock is only going up and cannot go down. It is impossible that it goes down. Xero is operating in a new paradigm and its product is so superior it cannot fail. This is just an aberration and we will see $40+ again. (very much tounge in cheek) Definitely one for those praying or with a lot of faith. And down another 50 cent. Boy what a load of swings today. From ecstasy to despair methinks for some.

That's Gold mate and sums up the disciples beliefs succinctly. Seasoned investors have seen all this sort of nonsense and hype before. Remember how the velvet from the deers antlers was supposed to be a panacea for all sorts of diseases ravaging the world, you'd be a complete fool not to be taking those supplemants right ?.. not too forget they were supposed to be a potent boost to ones virility, I'm sure my wife would have been thrilled. You can't go wrong investing in a Deer farm and people invested millions...and the ones that got out early at the peak of the bubble, made millions...while the rest, oh dear...(please excuse the pun).

Now we have an online accounting programme that's a panacea for everyone's system needs in business and will take over the world...nah, i must be wrong, I must be just an old Dinosaur accountant :)

[winner69]

Read all about this wonderful Australian company that Craig owns

http://www.brw.com.au/p/investing/apple_software_steve_jobs_craig_v0p1kQicvOKrdQkDEg eLbO

[winner69]

Something else for Craigs wonderful company to copy to kkep those nasty Intuit guys at bay

http://www.brw.com.au/p/business/explains_your_accounting_software_k1MEdrnYbK7QgGK6 ZWIhQI

[blobbles]

I would just like to point out to people that if XRO is making 70 million this year, which would be fabulous, and magically this cost them nothing to give their services (i.e. they paid their workers nothing and everyone gave them servers and everything for free), they would have EPS of 55c.

Based on EPS of 55c, current P/E is 62. And on the $45 valuation from that amazing analyst (insane!), it would be 82.

This for a company that is growing at 80-100%? And isn't expecting earnings, at all, until probably 2018?

Naaaahhhh, not a bubble, sweet as!

[Lost in space]

Actually, as per my previous post, had a trailing 300 cent stop loss so kicked out at $38 with a very very nice profit. New car? Nah now thats a waste of money. Will play this all over again for the umpteenth time.

[CJ]

Based on EPS of 55c, current P/E is 62. And on the $45 valuation from that amazing analyst (insane!), it would be 82.P/R ratio are common for start ups like this. I think Facebook trades of a P/R of 10 and Twitter about 15. 20 is not unheard of. P/R of 62 is pretty high though, especially since it is 7 years old, though in the US, I guess it is less than 2 years old.

[Beagle]

I know some are disinclined to bother clicking on links so I've cut and pasted this article kindly provided by Winner69 above.
If that doesn't give some new investors cause to pause and reflect then there is no helping those with an almost religious fervour towards Xero. Blinded by their paper profits to date or are we just talking about good old fashioned Gordon Geeko style greed...


The 18 per cent rise in the share price of accounting software company Xero on Wednesday makes it a bigger company than tech favourite SEEK and delivered a windfall gain of $96 million to Rich 200 member Craig Winkler.

Xero has enjoyed phenomenal growth on the ASX since its debut on November 8, 2012. In the year since, its share price has risen by 660 per cent to close at $34.20 on November 6. This lifts its market capitalisation to $4.36 billion.

The growth has led to investment bank Credit Suisse dubbing Xero as the “Apple of accounting”.

In early trading on Thursday, Xero is 5.9 per cent higher at $36.20.

Xero sells accounting software and uses cloud computing technology to keep prices low.

The biggest beneficiary of Xero’s share price growth is its chief executive Rod Drury. The New Zealander’s shares were worth $743 million at the close of trading on November 6.

Melbourne-based Winkler made his first fortune from another accounting software company, MYOB. He exited the company in 2008 when he sold his 28 per cent stake for about $125 million.

A year later, Winkler spent about $15 million on his Xero stock. He remains a non-executive director of the New Zealand based company, of which he owns 16.4 per cent. As of yesterday, Winkler’s stake was worth $632 million.

More than money
Most of Winkler’s Xero shares are held in a charitable trust. An active Christian, Winkler is a long-time supporter of indigenous causes. Little is known about Winkler’s plans for the money but he appears to be on the verge of making one of the biggest philanthropic gifts in history.

That is if Xero shares can maintain their momentum. Investors fondness for Xero stock is largely based on speculation. In its full year report for the year to March 2013, Xero reported a $NZ14.4 million ($12.7 million) loss on revenue of $NZ39 million ($34.3 million).

This means that its market capitalisation is a staggering 127 times larger than its most recent full year revenue result.

Investors’ confidence about the company’s ability to grow was buoyed on October 3 when Xero informed the market that it was set to exceed NZ$30 million ($26.4 million) in operating revenue for the first half of the 2014 financial year.

Among other achievements, the 18 per cent surge on November 6 made Xero larger than employment classified business SEEK.

SEEK, which is worth $4.34 billion, is widely regarded as one of the best technology companies ever to come out of Australia.

In contrast to Xero, SEEK reported revenue of $620.2 million last year and a $141.1 million profit.

Companies smaller than Xero by market cap*
•SEEK, $4.34 billion
•Toll Holdings, $4.11 billion
•Bank of Queensland, $3.90 billion
•Harvey Norman, $3.44 billion
•Qantas Airways, $2.72 billion
•Seven Group Holdings, $2.44 billion

[Lost in space]

what a swing lol , i may sell my old car to buy another 100 shares im sure next week ill be able to buy a newer one

Actually, as per my previous post, had a trailing 300 cent stop loss so kicked out at $38 with a very very nice profit. New car? Nah now thats a waste of money. Will play this all over again for the umpteenth time.

[winner69]

Thay story I linked about Craigs company said This means that its market capitalisation is a staggering 127 times larger than its most recent full year revenue result

[winner69]

Thay story I linked about Craigs company said This means that its market capitalisation is a staggering 127 times larger than its most recent full year revenue result

So the ratio falls pretty quick eh as revenues double every year

[Lorne Ranger]

I would just like to point out to people that if XRO is making 70 million this year, which would be fabulous, and magically this cost them nothing to give their services (i.e. they paid their workers nothing and everyone gave them servers and everything for free), they would have EPS of 55c.

Based on EPS of 55c, current P/E is 62. And on the $45 valuation from that amazing analyst (insane!), it would be 82.

This for a company that is growing at 80-100%? And isn't expecting earnings, at all, until probably 2018?

Naaaahhhh, not a bubble, sweet as!

I note that accusations of it being a bubble are generally made by those I assume dont have shares. Oh dear.

Time will tell. Well, every share collapses at some stage and that will be the "proof" of bubbledom.... then when it recovers.....

Even today you can choose to focus on the reduction in shareprice by days end, or the fact that it reached a record high, take your pick.

[CJ]

Nice work with the stop. Its gone even lower in Australia (under NZD$33 now) so expect it to open even lower tomorrow. More stops will be hit??? Anyone who knows what they are talking about have a view on tomorrow?

[Beagle]

^^Closed in Aussie at $32.34 using an interbank closing exchange rate of 0.8824.


Even today you can choose to focus on the reduction in shareprice by days end, or the fact that it reached a record high, take your pick.

Went out to get four new tyres for wife's car and when I left at lunchtime yesterday I'd made enough paper profit on my SUM shares to pay for the tyres ten times over. By end of day I'd only paid for them, (on paper), twice over...a timely reminder that the closing price for the day or the price you sold them at are the only two relevant figures.