View Full Version : EUR.GBP
Break of recent resistance and DT line.
http://www.reefcap.com/ubb/uploads/042904.gif
Well that last little run north gave circa
450 pips for medium term holders with nerves of steel.
Now the current chart is creating a near picture
perfect Gartley with the final leg recently reversing
off the old uptrend line.
Of course Gartleys have the ability to continue forming further
into Butterflies, catching out early participants on the wrong foot.
However, a modest entry approach using a 1,2,3, Ross Hook, or
similar technique can often prove to be fruitful.
You can read much more about it here with descriptive charts.
http://forum.tacticaltrader.com/viewtopic.php?t=1587&postdays=0&postorder=desc&start=25
arco
EUR.GBP has just almost kissed the
Gann Level at 6897 the area of which
may repel the advance in the short term.
It could give a risky short against
the main trend but one would need to
see definate reversal signals on multiple
time frames.
Looks like this has confirmed the reversal imo
any other thoughts?
Yes Slam
Took a small short term swing trade
position at 6881 (currently + 15)
........fighting the main trend tho.
Possible support circa 6836 IMO
arco
quote:23/5 possible support circa 6836
o/n low 6835 - closed at 6838........+46
......... trailing stop
That was a powerful move through what
should have been a substantial Gann hurdle.
Next support levels 6775, 6744
Current position short from 6881 = + 106
Tight trailing stop.
Closed at 6728 which is just below
the Gann Level I mentioned yesterday.
IMO there could be some major hesitation at 6714.
Still hanging in.......+153 with tight stop.
I'm still in this one too arco
+136 which is nice on this pair
wouldn't be supprised if the resistance/support at 6714 gets taken out with the way things are atm.
If so, next stop 6650's[:0]
Cheers
slam
Low printed at 6717 which is pretty close to my
figure 6714......so care needed here.
+157 at close.
Action printing within the Gartley possible
reversal zone target......so therefore needs
carefully watching.
Sitting pretty +190
Hi All
On a daily chart, now coming to the end of the wave 5 (of an extended 1st formation), and touched on support line of channel. May correct from around here and if so, should see .6770 (ish):)
OSC may lead the way;)
Look for a double bottom off .6675
Take all this with a grain of salt until confirmation from a more reliable source:D
Cheers
Slam
Hi Slam
EUR.GBP plot has broken the old uptrend
line so we need to see what a test of that
may bring IMO.
Action is still printing within the Gartley possible
reversal zone target......so therefore needs carefully
watching.
Sitting pretty +195
Hi arco
I will look again.
do you have an updated chart you can post so I can get my head aroung it?
No probs if you don't
Cheers
Slam
Hi arco
good call. (again)
It is now significantly below the downward channel on the daily, and the long term upward on the weekly. Weekly is displaying a nice 5 that started in Jan so if I have this right, we should see a reversal next to a corrective a,b,c wave soon that could ultimately target .6933.
Just a matter of when it turns I guess
Make any sense to anyone?
cheers
slam
Morning Slam
Action is still just within the Gartley possible
reversal zone and minor Butterfly target....so there
can always be the chance of a reversal at such points.
Can't figure out your EW count [:I]...can you supply a
chart with it numbered?
Still hanging in +221
will give it a go[:I]
http://nzwebservice.co.nz/4xcharts/EER-GPG weekly.gif
maybe a bit simplistic
cheers slam
Slam
Good to see the chart, and interesting to discuss EW.
I am not a brilliant E-waver so bear with me
..... your wave 4 appears to have exceeded the
start of wave 1, so I presume you think this
could be a Diagonal with a 5th wave throw-over?
making perhaps 'C' of an ABC Flat correction?
......(correction started May 2003)
Rules of Wave Labeling
Wave 3 can never be the shortest impulse wave.
Wave 2 can never exceed the start of Wave 1.
Wave 4 can never overlap Wave 1
(i.e., cross into the same price area).
Diagonal triangles are part of ending sequences in
a wave pattern, and therefore can occur within a
wave 5 or a wave C. According to Elliott, diagonal
triangles form when market action has moved "too far,
too fast" and represent exhaustion of the trend. The
5th wave of the diagonal will frequently spike sharply
above the upper (lower) trendline of the triangle in what
Elliott called a "throw-over."
arco
cheers for the comments
I will have another look at it
slam
Slam
Here's my weekly count....see what you think.
(I could be wrong. [B)])
arco
http://forum.tacticaltrader.com/attachments/eur.gbpewweek.gif
cheers arco
more work to be done on the old EW, [:I]
still, keeps me thinking
slam
Looks very over done now and possible
Gann support at 6622
Current position short from 6881 = +236
Time to tighten the stop me thinks ;)
quote:Originally posted by arco
Looks very over done now and possible
Gann support at 6622
...........
And the bottom was .6628
arco 6 pips out, what's going on:D
good call
Cheers
slam
Hi Slam
6625 was the low on my EOD charts from Reuters -
anyway, my apologies for the slight discrepancy :D
I promise to try harder next time....[B)] LOL
Printed a nice 5 on the hourly chart and looks like b just completling on the corective.
Looking for a long entry after c
anyone else agree?
Cheers
Slam
Xerof
04-07-2005, 10:13 AM
Hmmm, looking at daily, I'd personally be a seller at 6800, being 61.8 retracement level of move down from 6900 area to low 66's, but with a tight stop.
Still think we have a lagging effect in sell-off in EURO.
But I don't profess to be an expert on this cross (or any others for that matter!)
See what you mean on the daily Xerof
The 5 I mentioned on the Hourly would be A on the Daily
The 3 would be B and if C stays in the channel .6850 would be the top.
So a long at C on Daily would be a quick one, and in Hindsight probably best to wait for the next 5 down to start
Thanks Xerof, good to have someone make you look at the bigger picture.:)
I have a habit of getting the charts down to a small time frame and forget the main objective.
Cheers
Slam
Major Gann at 6836. (Minor 6805).
Xerof
04-07-2005, 12:37 PM
I salute you Colonel
This might be what we're looking for;)
Hourly chart
http://www.nzwebservice.co.nz/4xcharts/EUR-GBP%20Hour.gif
Slam
The action is currently on the Gartley
symmetry target zone, so a reversal signal
is possibly on the cards near term. This
would be a natural place to take some
profits off the table if still long.
A point to remember...
Symmetrical triangles are thought of as
continuation patterns. Nine times out
of ten, the breakout will occur in the
direction of the existing trend (even
if only in the short term).
arco
Hi arco
agree, the break north being leg C (daily) with a target circa .6850
(not far from your gann at .6836) being the top of the channel before a break south again
Xerof
07-07-2005, 11:19 AM
Hi gang,
I don't usually trade this cross, but looks like its heading into a nice zone for selling a unit or two
Hate to bring fundamentals into it, but I did hear of very large buyside volumes at London 'fix' over the past week or two, related to an equity flow. Once this demand is completed, may fall quite quickly
Anyone have a precise entry level to target? Gann still 6836 Arco, Slam you mentioned 6850, and I threw 6800 in as a wild stab
6835 sounds like a good number to me
Xerof
miner
07-07-2005, 11:29 AM
Double top it at 6812 maybe?.
Hi Xerof
I went short on the top of todays 6811
Will take another if it goes to 6840 but I get the felling it won't. (just gut feeling)
cable bouncing now;)
will take another on the way down
Cheers
Slam
Xerof
07-07-2005, 11:45 AM
Thanks guys
Might just leave a flyer higher up - no dramas if not hit
Xerof
Gann still 6836 Arco YES
Recent high 6813.....so not far off,
and looking for possible reversal signal.
Leonardo Pisano's band of 50 stationed at 6853
There is also a small divergence on Osc.
arco
Xerof
07-07-2005, 12:41 PM
Cheers Arco
You should really treat Leonardo with the respect he deserves and address him as Mr Fibonacci[:I][:I]
miner
11-07-2005, 11:54 AM
Double top on the 9am hourly and daily?.
saw that one miner;)
could have another go at it though
tight stops
cheers
slam
miner
11-07-2005, 12:19 PM
Thought you would have hehe,yep may test it again,thinking about short at 903 as quick burst through 891 nailed on 903,on the daily.
15min and 5min yuck at the mo,so no direction from them,hourly 881 supp?.
most in a tight range so far today, so not alot of pips either way yet.
hourly support 6881:)
miner
11-07-2005, 12:35 PM
Yep mate all the one's I watch are doing the crab thing,may be worth setting a short at 903,and if goes into it too stong can always pull it,sit on hands day so far though.
miner
11-07-2005, 12:37 PM
O-yeah did that stop at even thing today,keep in mind when a messy day.
miner
13-07-2005, 08:44 PM
Strong last few hours slam.
EUR holding better than GBP miner
think I got your flew[xx(]
miner
13-07-2005, 10:09 PM
One of those days mate made a few pips from trade entered yesterday and just got stopped on eur/usd to the pip[xx(],which no doubt will now be the turn for tonight(Murphy)[}:)] so been breaking my rules and therefore making cr*p calls all day so might be goodnight kiwi time for me.
When you cant trade your way out of a wet paper bag:( time to call it a day,always tomorrow.
Cheers
Miner
Norwegians are recommending this aat .6750
But in their usual efficient way did they say short or long?
A relatively
simple model composed of the difference in interest rates (3
mth.), EUR/USD and the comparative development in the two
stock markets currently suggests that EUR/GBP is oversold.
Fair price according to this model is 68.60, which is exactly 1.5%
higher than the current spot price. Looking at technical analysis
there is also several signals pointing towards a correction
higher. The level around 67.55 should be very good support
given the fact that this exact level represents 61.8% of the move
from 66.10 to 69.90. All in all both economics and technical
analysis point to a move higher in EUR/GBP. Therefore we
have this morning established a new 100% bought tactical
position in EUR/GBP, and our target for this move up will be
the level just below 69. A close below 67.00 will tell us that this
call was premature, and we will close our position.
Hi Peat
Yes I closed a short off last night for 61 pips
because I felt there were a number of factors that
may indicate a reversal could be close at hand.
.......Plus of course I enjoy taking a profit :D
arco
NB. Major Gann below at 6714
Peat
According to my calcs based on yesterdays EOD
figures a reversal would project
to 6892-6933 with a Major Gann at 6958.
Some of these figures would change slightly if
the recent lows are taken out.
arco
Mentioned on the 9th Sept "Major Gann below at 6714"
6711 has just been touched so time
to dip in a tentative toe with a
tight stop
I will need to recalculate the targets
tomorrow.
arco
I entered yesterday at 6721 just shortly after my post
so a wee increase overnight and showing +27 at the moment.
never one to underpay when on the long side, :(
I am still in on this at entry of .6762
Major Gann holding well, and a nice long green
candle forming a 'Rising 3 Methods' derivative
- classed a bullish sign. Plus a line break on
the oscillator looks good. Also 2 Garts working
in tandem at the moment, so see how we go.
+50 with stop just below Gann.
Resistance possible 6836
yes it started going up after i closed out arco..... lol
on the larger timeframes this is definitely forming a triangle thats getting closer and closer to the apex...
looking at the daily theres a definite breakout on the upside of this 6 month long flag. could be massive.
http://img236.imageshack.us/img236/6897/eurgbpdaily060420067ze.jpg]
and could have a correction too heheh
things have certainly changed since my last post....
but am trying a long here from .6838 - will give this only 20 pips stop at this level --- 1 pip = 1.8 USD and must not forget the PPC rule. Preserve precious capital (even in demo)
the tight stop hasnt been hit....
the first sign now of the turn beginning to happen , a 20 pip uptick
long at 92.
looking for a bounce.
Morning Peat
I sink you haf been reading my mind again ;)
I was checking this one out yesterday, and put it on the short
list for a possible reversal signal appearing in the near future.
It looks like the EOD may provide a Bullish Engulfing, so once I have the download from Rooters @ 11 am I will be checking all factors and considering a position.
Wish you good luck with this trade..... and you are currently in the green
regards - arco
if I'm going to read anyones mind yours seems like a good one heheh
from a technical perspective I think what I've seen on the daily is a descending triangle with 5 (or more) waves that hopefully has completed.
Hi Peat
I'm looking at it as a Falling Wedge Pattern...........
Example.
http://www.thestockbandit.com/images/Chart%20Patterns/Falling-wedge-pattern.gif
regards - arco
i've added at 6701
MPPP support at about 6692
wasnt very ambitious with my 2nd position so had a tp set at 6718 , thats done now. Am still holding the other , up 40. twas a good night then , perhaps that course didnt do me any harm, one of the phrases he used was borrowed from Tony Robbins "If you cant , you must"
Closed one of the three contracts I now had open on this at 6754, the original contract + 64 now. Its good to bank some tho - even with Eur Jpy taking a hit today this pair is making up for it and more :)
next take profit has now been hit at 6774. one contract still open.
added at 6768 and now at 6777, slow steady pips without high volatility are okay by me. i can pyramid into this
heh
who says no volatility !
but I can handle 25 pips easier that I can over 100 like on the AUD/NZD (which is now booming of course [8])
trend tested but not broken so far.....
late update just to close the matter : I was stopped and reversed at 6760 and took 20 pips at 6740 yesterday just to help . SO overall was worth playing , tho my bullish predictions havent played out.
Might be a possibility
I coloured the area yellow where a possible reversal south might take place. If/Once Chikou breaks through the price action, Tenkan may also cross Kijun. This could give us a Kumo surfing opportunity, and maybe more.
I am looking closely at the blue area as a long term target, but obviously this can change as short term world events unfold. (Look at that blue area as a price target not a time target).
GTA - arco
http://www.khalsaspad.com/files/12042006_eur.gbp.gif
strong inflation figures in the UK have assisted with £ strength taking this cross down overnite. chikou and tenkan has crossed on the 3 hourly (some time ago in fact) but only chikou has clearly crossed on the daily. price has now entered the cloud tho, and in fact has already bounced off the lower edge.
Morning Peat
I got taken in on that spike up @ 6776 (8 Dec) which is within the yellow marked area.
Action has been as high at +43, but currently +33 (thats eq to approx +63 pips based on a USD.EUR trade.
Action is through the cloud on all timeframes except daily.
regards - arco
i knew you would get a better price than me arco .... I was there watching it spike to 84 but didnt have the courage lol , but did get in at 59 when I saw a bit more downwards confirmation ....
btw your CAD call came true overnite too.... you really do drink a special kind of tea.
Hi Peat
quote:Peat......btw your CAD call came true overnite too.... you really do drink a special kind of tea.
Only Dilmah Extra strong......but obviously it was strong enough for 250+ pips ;)
arco
http://www.khalsaspad.com/files/12132006_eur.gbp.gif
arco
Hello All
Its always very nice to wake up and find your position has continued to move in the right direction overnight.
Currently showing +57 pips (Equivalent to +108 in EURO pip profit terms).
There is Chikou support around 6723 and I also calculated a strong Gann support/resistance point around the same area, so as the action has just broken through it may cause some testing from the south side.
regards - arco
you're on fire Arco
:D
and yay I finish up work tomorrow for a few weeks...
Hello All
We got the break and test I mentioned yesterday and the action
eventually continued lower with an EOD close printing at 6702.
Currently giving +70 pips (Equivalent to +134 in EURO pip profit terms).
I dont see any reason why the action cannot eventually go down further to test the Sept/Oct supports.
Trailing stop to protect profits.
GTA - arco
taken out during the volatility from data , +50 for me. perfectly happy even tho it wasnt fully maximised.
Hi Peat
Not bad - and also remembering thats about +95
in Euro terms.
My stop was way higher and I'm still in at +71
(or about +135 in Euro terms).
Good weekend all - arco
WOW on the overnight red candle
seems like arco's blue target did get hit eventually....
Ahhh Mr Dilmah, you've done it again.
A nice plunge into the blue box as suspected.
it did go back up to my entry point during the gestation phase, so that would've freaked me out a bit, but yes - very well done arco.
arco, what was the indicator you used at the bottom of the picture you posted on the 8/12/2006
its kind of like MACD but not exactly.... so I am curious.
Hi Peat
The lower pane indicator is a MacD (Dinapoli version). I have access to the MS code - let me know if you need it, (and I also think its available on MT4).
regards - arco
Hi ARCO..finally made it here !
My butterfly well and truly broke at the 0.6600 level.Monthly charts suggests a potential 1:1 low at 0.6539 or a AB=CD on monthly for the current wave formation a low to 0.6510..have tried to post the monthly, daily and hourly charts but cant upload.
Welcome Bede
Good to see you here. :D
Re Images.
You can use Imageshack (free), or similar, to host your image and post the url using the yellow buttton 'Insert Image'.
regards - arco
a small time frame play here
my rationale behind shorting the Eur/Gbp at .6836 was that there was a confluence of 2 fib extns. the 161% extension of .6751 to .6804 and the 261% exension of 6774 to 6799. these both approximated 6838. theres a obvious 5 wave pattern ending there. this gives a min target of 6814 with traiing stop there for 6804 possible. stop now at b/e
yes its a small target due to the size of the original swing being only 90 pips (playing the 38% retracment of that swing)
as described above ....
http://img87.imageshack.us/img87/6485/eurgbp270420071hralargefg2.jpg
target .6814 was met 22 pips banked.
miner
28-04-2007, 08:52 PM
[8D]
bother missed this one by a smidgen.....
http://img131.imageshack.us/img131/6947/eurgbp15min11102007dh4.jpg (http://imageshack.us)
Hard to say if the 5th wave is complete but when it is and at some point in the not too distant future this BF should produce 400 pips+/-
Watching in the wings.................
duly noted arco
in the meantime I will bank 20 from the first long in the gartley/bf thread and hold the 2nd that I got lower in pursuit of more.
Craig3215
08-01-2008, 10:40 PM
Looking a bit toppy here what do you think Arco
Hello Craig
Current action is in blue sky so difficult to say when exactly, but
with Euro looking strong and Cable looking weak, we should soon
see a move following the recent chart posted.
Weekly is printing an mid-candle Harami as of today. Slightly bearish
if it remains that way.
The butterfly may be about ready spread its wings.
arco
i didnt quite follow what you said arco in that if Eur is strong and Gbp is weak why would this cross start to turn down?
However, there is divergence on the Daily this morning, with a new high having been hit last night and yet RSI not (reaching a new high).
Morning Peat
Sorry for the confusion, I should have done a preview before posting.
I worded that the wrong way around.......Euro is looking weak in the short term, and with Cable potentially completing a BF in the next few days it could turn up for a spell in the near future.
I think this may only a short term positioning, but it could increase the chances of Eur.Gbp dipping in the near future to around the .7200 to test old resistance.
Eur.Gbp could then try to venture a little further north. Its into blue sky and the BF is overstretched so nothing much to go on.
No position at the moment
arco
Heres the short term bearish potential I was seeing yesterday re the Euro (its basically the same scenario that I mentioned on The Eur.Usd thread on 1st Jan), and the imminent BF completion on Cable.
http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showpost.php?p=178770&postcount=555
Craig3215
22-01-2008, 10:03 PM
There's a head and shoulder formation on the 2 hour chart with .7415 as the neakline waiting for a close below
yes thats right craig. well spotted
I'm in ,as per diagram
those tight stops got hit tho....:(
Craig3215
23-01-2008, 07:30 PM
yeah it never quite closed below the neckline so i've stayed away
dumbass
07-03-2008, 07:15 PM
bit of a side show before the main event (usd rally)
potential top forming , candlesticks suggestive too , butterfly printing
divergence on indicators
good short around 77.20
bullish gartley suggesting a buy at 86 (with a target of 92) on the daily - currently 89.45
my pic shows the 3 hourly - we've had an ab = cd down this year and now a bullish gartley buy at 87.50 and tho that only targeted 89.10 (already done) maybe the bigger pattern above (not shown) will play out.
huge big green candle and got to within a whisker of 92 overnite. progressively got closed out with preset take profits so I'm mostly off the table now but I'm going to hold the remainder for target of 9350 currently +280
Nice trading Peat (and on Loonie).
Wish I could have the patience to hang on for the longer runs.
I see a waning in momentum so couldnt wait any longer closed out at 9250 for +340ish
something big happening here? A bullish butterfly has activated . i'm in from .8930 current price .9003 target .92 and maybe .95
Which in turn would print a bearish BF perhaps
The end of the road.
http://i32.tinypic.com/2ql7ryp.gif
I decided to jump on the 'D' leg to keep you company Peat :)
http://i37.tinypic.com/4t6ffd.gif
the weekly ichi also shows a clear break through the cloud , although theres no actual crossover yet. currently +107 at .9037
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