RWD---very big potash resource

[Sunshine007]

RWD, the only potash company in Australia, has an in situ resource value of ca $15billion for its 25mt of contained potash sulphite. After recent placement (at 68c) the company has 54.5m fully paid shares and 13.4m options. So market cap at 95c is $52m, or $65m if all options are exercised.
RWD has a NPAT projection of $26m in a recent presentation but I can't find the timeframe. Proposed project funding will be half debt half equity for a total of $120m. So some future dilution through equity raising is likely. I bought into RWD to participate in the expected farming/agriculture boom. This is only a personal opinion. The numbers presented above may contain errors. Please do your own research

[Sunshine007]

Excerpt:
"... Market Conditions
Farmers around the world are increasing plantings and using more fertilizer in an effort to capture favorable prices for many major crops. The USDA's March 30th Prospective Plantings report predicted that American farmers will plant 90.5 million acres of corn, a 15-percent increase from last year for a crop that is a heavy fertilizer user. The emphasis on corn is expected to displace other crops in the US, raising prices and creating opportunities for producers of those crops in other agricultural regions. After suffering for two years with higher energy costs and lower crop prices that led to reduced fertilizer applications, farmers have made a strong return to the market for all three nutrients to restore soil fertility.

As potash fundamentals tightened through the first quarter, we achieved an $11-per-tonne increase for North American customers in mid-February. The completion of pricing contracts with China in early February 2007, unlike the late July settlement in 2006, kept offshore potash volumes moving and further tightened supply. This had an impact on spot pricing in key offshore markets. Brazil, where prices lagged through most of 2006, saw an increase of $25 per tonne in each of February and April 2007, and Canpotex has announced a third increase for June. Through two increases, prices in Southeast Asia rose by $20 per tonne in the first quarter. Spot market rates for dry bulk ocean freight were roughly 75 percent higher than a year ago, adding to the need for price increases. "
Source: PotashCorp Achieves Record Earnings in First Quarterhttp://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=conewsstory&refer=conews&tkr=POT:US&sid=aWmpRyRMFj_A

[Sunshine007]

The recently placed shares (at 68c) have been issued and I think these might come on to the market this week. I hope there might be some price weakness.

[Sunshine007]

A bit of weakness today. I wonder if new shares from placement has hit the market.

Looks like I am playing solo on RWD. Anybody there?

[Sunshine007]

Hey people, still no interest? Well Fertilizer stocks in north america are going strong, RWD might crack the $1 mark next week. I thought the release of the recently placed 68c shares would pressure RWD somewhat and 95c would be a big hurdle. Relative high volume in recent days does indicate that some are selling their newly acquired shares from placement. But the strength of the stock surprised me a bit.

[shasta]

Sunshine

Have you had a look at ADY, they have a small JORC Potash resource of 2.48MT in Argentina.

Worth a look at 19.5c - I hold.

Have RWD on my watchlist, thanks for posting the above info.

[Sunshine007]

Ah, finally. Hi shasta, yes I do hold ADY. Potash will be a by-product when they start producing lithium compounds.

[shasta]

I see RWD hit $1 today, & a good looking chart!

[jeremy b]

Going to buy some of these next week.Mak and Rwd,should have fertiliser coverd with these two.

[denpal]

RWD now have the Native title issue sorted, potash prices are trending up strongly, and I am very comfortable holding a position in this company, with a view to adding more on any weakness if we have a bear market relapse later this month.

[hector]

Big moves in china potash contracts with the big companies.
RWD looking better and better.
I dont have any but would if I could.
MAK and RWD the stocks of the year so far.
Will prob move large today

[jeremy b]

It looks like someone is trying to cap this at the moment.I don't think this will last to long,should see $2.00 tested this week.

[denpal]

Thread resurrection!

With the ag. sector being a good spot to be in for 2011, and fertilizer prices and shares trending well, RWD is worth keeping on one's radar. We have had big problems with native title on the Lake Disappointment potash project, but we are now talking constructively with the T/O's at Lake Mackay where we also have a huge potash SOP resource. As well we also have Karinga Creek potash 50/50 JV with RUM, south of Alice Springs with NO NATIVE TITLE, so that is very good news.

We also have several deep basin potash exploration areas, including Adavale, plus the Moora greensands project that could be a game-changer on its own.

Summary - I will hold RWD until one of its projects flies as I think it has multi-bagger written all over it. Patience is required here, maybe a couple more years, but you never know when a deal will be done with the T/O's and then it's game-on major re-rating the next day.

[corporateraider]

Took a small position today. This fits my style of investing in large undeveloped resources. I am not sure about the timing but I don't intend to trade.

[corporateraider]

Thanks Denpal

[denpal]

RWD is up 24% today on no news. Something is up, as volume has been very high all week.

[corporateraider]

Dare I bring some of that inspired comment that typifies the HC forum after today's share price action -whoaaaaa!
But where to from here? Any thoughts Denpal?

[drillfix]

RWD is up 24% today on no news. Something is up, as volume has been very high all week.

Wow folks,

Now thats what I call conviction.

What a huge hourly Candle, amazing.

Went from 95.5c straight up to $1.40

Bet ya all those sitting there waiting and wondering at 80c something were completely wrapped.

Well done :)

[denpal]

Dare I bring some of that inspired comment that typifies the HC forum after today's share price action -whoaaaaa!
But where to from here? Any thoughts Denpal?

I don't want to get anyone's hopes up, but I know this stock and the potash sector very well indeed over several years, and will give my honest opinion: This is very good news for sure, although nothing "in concrete" so to speak as far as mining terms are concerned. I suggest anyone interested work out the margin and capex from previous anns. and draw your own risk-weighted conclusion!!!! I detect an increase in genuine intent between the parties this time round to arrive at a fair agreement for both parties.

[trackers]

Glad to see RWD moving along again... Has just gone into trading halt for 24 hours pending "Material Cap Raising".

Very very interesting given its projects pretty much rely on native agreements to progress. Wonder what this all indicates (if anything)?

[denpal]

We'll soon see! The word "material" has me intrigued.

A business definition:

1. Having a logical connection with a subject matter or the consequential events or facts, or the knowledge of which would significantly affect a decision or course of action.

[soulman]

Looks like a normal capital raising. If BHP were to take a stake, then it should said a strategic investor looking to take a stake.

Who knows and the share price can still rockets from here.

[denpal]

$5M at 90c to Azure Capital, who are assisting RWD with Martu negotiations. Very nice vote of confidence and sp has responded accordingly.

[denpal]

From today's Quarterly report, very positive:

"In 2007, Reward Minerals announced a JORC compliant Indicated Resource of 24.4 million tonnes of
Potassium Sulfate (Sulfate of Potash – SOP) within Lake Disappointment in the north west of Western
Australia.

Lake Disappointment lies wholly within the Martu Lands Determination Area. Although the Company
executed a Term sheet agreement with the Martu, Traditional Owner representative body WDLAC in March
2008, the execution of a Mining Agreement was not achieved at that time and the Lake Disappointment
Potash project has remained dormant since then.

In the intervening period, the Company made several approaches to Western Desert Lands Aboriginal
Corporation (WDLAC) to assess the possibility of resumption of talks relating to the project. Late in 2010,
WDLAC on behalf of the Martu people agreed to hold preliminary discussions. These discussions have
developed into negotiations as to terms Reward proposes for development of the Lake Disappointment
project for consideration by WDLAC and the Martu Traditional Owners.

This has been done by the Company in the form of a Costs Agreement and Terms offer. Receipt of this
documentation was acknowledged by WDLAC in March 2011 and announced to the Market on 1 April 2011.
As mentioned in the April 1 announcement, WDLAC needs to properly consult with and seek approval of
Martu Traditional Owners prior to entering any binding commitments.

In April 2011, the WDLAC Board comprising 15 Martu representatives agreed to call an on-country meeting
for Martu Traditional Owners and authorised representatives to consider and provide their views on the
Reward proposals for development of the Lake Disappointment project. A meeting was held on-country at
Camp 3 late in June 2011 with the Lake Disappointment project being discussed on 25 June 2011.

While the June 2011 on-country meeting was called to present and consider the Lake Disappointment
project, it was not designed to formally decide on and resolve the issue at the time. However, an informal
assessment of the views of the Martu and authorised representatives was called for by senior Traditional
Owners at the meeting, this indicated that a majority of those present were in favour of project development
on terms along the lines proposed by Reward Minerals Ltd.

Consequently, WDLAC has requested that Reward prepare draft Mining and Indigenous Land
Use/Agreements for consideration by WDLAC and the Martu with the aim of presenting a resolution to
determine the issue at the Annual General Meeting to be held in early September 2011. The draft
documents are currently in preparation."



And this is a big clue also:

"Reward Minerals Ltd currently holds a 50% interest in the Karinga Lakes project. However, due to anticipated
commitments on its other Potash projects, Reward has elected not to contribute to the Year 2011 exploration
at Karinga Lakes. As a consequence Reward will dilute its interest below 50% to a level dependent on future
expenditure solely incurred by RUM."

[denpal]

RWD ended the week strongly. Definitely some serious buyers lurking about who came in late in the day when they realized that no-one was going to dump.

The chart shows we are at gap resistance now. We await positive news on Lake Disappointment potash project some time next month.

[denpal]

Read the latest ann. last week. We are at the sharp end now of the LD negotiations. Do or die so to speak and of course we hope the former. If that occurs, the share price will surely rise quite a bit, if it doesn't, the share price will decrease by at least 30% I'd imagine.

[denpal]

Agreement finally reached with Martu on a mining agreement at Lake Disappointment, subject only to heritage clearance of which much work has already been done. Refer the ann.

We are looking for +$1.40 tomorrow hopefully, from $1.01 now with much more to come considering the current Australian price of SOP, the possible $500/t margin, the low <$200M capex plus the potential annual production of 400ktpa. Note the mining agreement tables the royalty for 600ktpa production - interesting that this is mentioned.

[Huang Chung]

Price action today was completely lacklustre.

This market is a tough mistress.....

[FarmerGeorge]

This has to be worth more than what the market gave RWD today - but it is Xmas and the announcement came out a few days back so I'm not surprised we didn't get more than this. Very happy for the management to finally make some tangible progress with L.D.
Also note a mention in The Australian (although not exactly an endorsement of those of us who have been holding!).

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/opinion/prophets-and-profits-suffer-in-troubled-times/story-e6frg9ex-1226230260356

[Huang Chung]

Hi FG....it's been a while.

I'm more cautious that most of the Hot Copperite faithful, who seem somewhat shattered after today's market reaction. The share price had a nice run into the trading halt, so maybe the market had more or less priced in this current news.

One other thing that bugs me about RWD is their terrible website, that only seems to rarely get updated. Surely with all the time they must have had on their hands over the past few years they could have put some effort into their website. Sloppy websites give me a bad impression on how a company is being run, and how shareholders and other stakeholders are viewed by management.

[trackers]

Anyone still on RWD? I'm not, but it'll have some time in the sun again I'm sure so try keep my eye on it