GOLD

[JBmurc]

What if the United States had to pay its debt in gold?

In the old days, before the monetary reforms of the 20th century...notably, Richard Nixon's unilateral decision to renege on America's promise to pay its bills in gold...countries had to settle up with each other in the yellow metal. The system worked well; it was reliable; it prevented bubbles. Edward Chancellor explains:

"A country had to pay for its imports or foreign investments with money gained from a surplus on trade. If more money was sent abroad than had been earned through exports, then gold would be packed onto ships to discharge foreign creditors. A declining stock of bullion would induce the central bank to raise interest rates in order to attract gold from abroad. Rising rates would produce a credit contraction, unemployment and general economic misery. The typical nineteenth century was severe, but short- lived."

Then came the improvements. And the Great Depression. And now we are faced with another one.

Governments are fighting this one...just as they did the last one...but with much more money. The cost is in the trillions - most of it in the form of public debt. How will these debts be paid? We all expect that they will ultimately be eased by inflation - in full or in part. But suppose the feds had to pay up in real money?

Colleague Simone Wapler compared government debt to government gold. The United States has gold worth about $241 billion, she reports. Its official national debt is $11.5 trillion. That gives it a debt/gold ratio of 48 - meaning; the feds have 48 times as much debt as gold.

Britain is even worse. Prime Minister, then Chancellor, Gordon Brown sold much of England's gold at the worse possible moment - about 10 years ago. This leaves the island with only $9 billion worth of gold compared to $1,274 billion of government debt - a ratio of 1 to 139. But Japan is the worst of all. It has $23 billion worth of gold and $7.3 trillion of government debt, for a ratio of 1 to 323. (Of course, Japan has vast holdings of dollars too!)

What nation has the best gold/debt ratio? Switzerland. It has only twice as much in government debt as it has in gold.

Until tomorrow,

Bill Bonner
for The Daily Reckoning Australia

[Ponda]

Sorry for hijacking the site for a minute, but does anyone have a list of ASX goldies which includes dividends paid. If not can anybody point me in the right direction.
Thanks in advance.

[Dr_Who]

Sorry for hijacking the site for a minute, but does anyone have a list of ASX goldies which includes dividends paid. If not can anybody point me in the right direction.
Thanks in advance.

The only on the top my head is Lihir (LHG).

[macduffy]

Isn't Bill Bonner's article rather pointless?

The fact is that no nation is now or will ever be in a position to pay off a meaningful portion of its debt in gold. The whole system of international trade and finance has moved away from gold and relies on creditor nations being prepared to accept sovereign debt which is issued and rolled over, in steadily inflated currencies.

This doesn't, of course, mean that individuals won't seek to hold gold as a hedge against that inflation.

[macduffy]

Sorry for hijacking the site for a minute, but does anyone have a list of ASX goldies which includes dividends paid. If not can anybody point me in the right direction.
Thanks in advance.

Newcrest - NCM

Dominion Mining - DOM

Must be a few more!

[macduffy]

Newmont - NEM.

Not strictly an Aussie but the CDI's are listed on the ASX.

[winner69]

Sorry for hijacking the site for a minute, but does anyone have a list of ASX goldies which includes dividends paid. If not can anybody point me in the right direction.
Thanks in advance.


From the AFR tables under Metals and Mining GOLD these are the only ones lsited as paid a dividend recently

Linq Res Fund unt LRF
Dominion Min DOM
Newcrest Min NCM
OZ Min OZL
Newmont Min cdi 10:1 NEM
Anglogold Ashanti cdi 5:1 AGG
Troy Res NL TRY
North Queensland NQM
Global Gold Hld GGH


..... and thats out of 300 odd stocks listed

...... and not many are anywhere new 52 week highs

[Ponda]

Thanks guys (and girls?) for your help.
DOM seems to be an interesting company to invest in. Might have to look further in to it.
Cheers

[Dr_Who]

OZL is no a pure gold play. More copper. They sold their gold assets to the Chinese.

[winner69]

OZL is no a pure gold play. More copper. They sold their gold assets to the Chinese.

I'd better drop a line to S&P and AFR to tell them their sector breakdowns are wrong

[JBmurc]

From the AFR tables under Metals and Mining GOLD these are the only ones lsited as paid a dividend recently

Linq Res Fund unt LRF
Dominion Min DOM
Newcrest Min NCM
OZ Min OZL
Newmont Min cdi 10:1 NEM
Anglogold Ashanti cdi 5:1 AGG
Troy Res NL TRY
North Queensland NQM
Global Gold Hld GGH


..... and thats out of 300 odd stocks listed

...... and not many are anywhere new 52 week highs

--TRY is my favourite out of that list huge % growth potential have brought pently of late GOLD SILVER play undervalued jnr

[macduffy]

For what it's worth, a recent presentation by Norseman Gold (NGX) stated that in a comparison of thirteen companies, which obviously excluded the "big three" of Newmont, Newcrest and Lihir, the only Aussie goldies to make positive EBIT in the half year to 31 December 08 were Norseman and Dominion. SLR, RMS, TAM and CTO came close to breakeven.

AGG also not included in their comparison, it appears.

[winner69]

For what it's worth, a recent presentation by Norseman Gold (NGX) stated that in a comparison of thirteen companies, which obviously excluded the "big three" of Newmont, Newcrest and Lihir, the only Aussie goldies to make positive EBIT in the half year to 31 December 08 were Norseman and Dominion. SLR, RMS, TAM and CTO came close to breakeven.

AGG also not included in their comparison, it appears.

Hard to believe that so i went back to the list of gold shres from the AFR download and you are so right .... over 300 companies listed and these are the only ones shown with earnings


Security Description ASX Code Last Sale Earn Share ¢ P/E Ratio
Newcrest Min NCM $30.16 67.1 44.9
Cape Lambert Iron CFE $0.33 37.5 0.9
Dominion Min DOM $4.04 31.5 12.8
Kingsrose Min Ltd KRM $0.44 27.9 1.6
Newmont Min NEM $4.90 27.1 18.1
Croesus Min NL CRS $0.02 21.7 0.1
Giralia Res NL GIR $0.60 17.7 3.4
Tribune Res NL TBR $0.80 17.5 4.6
Austral Gold AGD $0.08 9.8 0.8
Lihir Gold Ltd LGL $2.88 7.7 37.6
Bass Metals Ltd BSM $0.20 6.6 3
North Queensland NQM $0.26 6.6 3.9
Rand Min NL RND $0.33 5.4 6.1
Adelaide Res ADN $0.10 4.5 2.2
Sylvania Res SLV $1.47 3.9 37.3
Hillgrove Res Ltd HGO $0.25 3.5 7
Greenland Min En GGG $0.37 3.0 12.2
Gullewa Ltd GUL $0.05 2.5 2
Resolute Min RSG $0.54 2.5 21.7
Prime Min PIM $0.06 1.8 3.4
Carrick Gold Ltd CRK $0.64 1.7 37.6
Havilah Res NL HAV $0.46 1.2 38.7
Argonaut Res ARE $0.05 1.2 4.7
Augustus Min AUJ $0.13 0.8 17.1
Troy Res NL TRY $1.24 0.7 177.1
Imperial Corp Ltd IMP $0.01 0.3 2.5
Global Gold Hld GGH $0.04 0.1 40

[macduffy]

Yes, winner, it's a rather sobering list, isn't it?

And I'm not so sure about the AFR's definition of gold stocks.
Cape Lambert Iron?
Croesus? Last I heard they were out of gold and looking at some nickel prospect somewhere. Last SP 1.8c.
GGH? A gold trading company but not a miner to my knowledge. SP hasn't moved from 4c since last November and rarely trades.

I guess it just goes to emphasise the risks in dabbling at this end of the market. I still have a few shares in Matsa Resources, formerly Kalgoorlie-Boulder Resources to remind me of this and hopefully keep my feet on the ground.

Cheers

[Phaedrus]

Of that list of 27, only about 7 are in an uptrend.
Of those, only 3 are showing any real technical strength.
KRM, SLV, HGO.

[winner69]

That Kingrose KLM looks interesting

From 10 cents in 44 cents in a few months and nobody made any mention of it here on Sharetrader

Might have missed the boat but will have a look at anyway

[macduffy]

That Kingrose KLM looks interesting

From 10 cents in 44 cents in a few months and nobody made any mention of it here on Sharetrader

Might have missed the boat but will have a look at anyway

You almost put me off the scent there, winner.

Kingrose KRM

Either someone is very confident about this one or it's being heavily ramped!

Icon Enterprises, associated with director J W Phillips, holds 19.74%. Does anyone know anything about his or the other principals background? ( Other than the official version in the AR )

[JBmurc]

Commodity exchanges can dump gold debts on ETFs

Submitted by cpowell on Sat, 2009-07-11
Section: Daily Dispatches

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

GATA board member Adrian Douglas discloses in the report below, titled "The Alchemists," that the New York and Tokyo commodity exchanges have been permitting their gold futures contracts to be settled not in real metal but in shares of gold exchange-traded funds (ETFs). This essentially allows the gold shorts (and the exchanges themselves, which guarantee futures contracts) to transfer their obligations to third parties that may not have the metal they claim to have and that, in any case, are operated by the investment banks running major short positions in gold.

Thus it is likely that the paper claims to the world's supply of gold are greater than even GATA has suspected -- that the gold supply is even more oversubscribed and that "paper gold" is being created at an ever more frantic rate to suppress gold's price.

The ability to offload futures contract gold obligations to the ETFs could become the principal mechanism of the gold price suppression scheme. GATA asks its supporters to call Douglas' report to the attention of financial journalists, market regulators, and elected officials everywhere.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.

[winner69]

TGX tasman Gold went uo 130% today and still finished well below its intraday highs

[JBmurc]

U.S. Mint gold, silver coin sales 'temporarily suspended' - again
Sales and suspension of gold and silver coin or bullion coin sales by the U.S. Mint are becoming a regular part of doing business as overloaded refiners and mint facilities struggle to meet continuing high demand.

Author: Dorothy Kosich
Posted: Tuesday , 14 Jul 2009

RENO, NV -

Unprecedented demand, a shortage of blanks, and restrictive policies and regulations continue to exacerbate what is almost becoming a chronic shortage of gold and silver coins authorized by the U.S. Mint.

The U.S. Mint has again "temporarily" suspended sales of almost all of its gold uncirculated and proof coins, along with nearly all of silver uncirculated coins because of the limited availability of blanks.

The mint no longer offers for sale the American Buffalo Gold Proof fractional coins and four coin sets are no longer available. Meanwhile the mint will no longer offer American Buffalo Gold Uncirculated Coins.

The 2009 American Buffalo One-ounce Gold Proof Coin is scheduled to go on sale in the second half of the 2009 calendar year after an acceptable inventory of 24-karat gold blanks can be acquired.

The U.S. Mint Online Product Catalog says production of the American Eagle Gold Proof and Uncirculated Coins has been temporarily suspended due to the "unprecedented demand" for American Eagle Bullion Coins for which all available 22-K gold blanks are being allocated.

In the catalog, the government says it will resume the American Eagle Gold Proof and Uncirculated Coin Programs "once sufficient inventories of gold bullion blanks can be acquired to meet market demand for all three American Eagle Gold Coin products."

Congressionally authorized American Eagle Bullion coins are aimed at providing investors an effective way to invest in precious metals. Prices may change on a daily basis as the platinum, gold and silver markets may fluctuate. The mint does not sell the bullion coins directly to the public, but distributes them in bulk through a network of official distributors, who meet government financial and professional criteria, which must be attested to by an internationally accepted accounting firm.

So far this year, the mint has sold 700,000 ounces or 700,000 gold bullion coins, compared to last year's total sales of 860,500 ounces of gold or 1,172,000 bullion coins.

Federal laws and regulations say the gold must be newly mined in the United States. Only a handful of refineries meet the standards and regulations to produce the blanks for the coins.

Meanwhile, silver producers have found themselves equally frustrated by the inability of the U.S. Mint to meet the demand for silver coins. Production of the American Eagle Silver Proof and Uncirculated Coins has also been temporarily suspended because of unprecedented demand for the American Eagle Silver Bullion Coins.

The product catalog states, "Currently, all available silver bullion blanks are being allocated to the American Eagle Silver Bullion Coin Program, as the United States Mint is required by Public Law 99-61 to produce these coins ‘in quantities sufficient to meet public demand.'"

Thus far this year, silver bullion coin sales total 14,899,500 compared to last year's total sales of 19,583,500.

While gold and silver producers have repeatedly gone to government officials to get them to authorize an increase in the number of refineries which can produce the blanks and the facilities that can mint the coins, industry sources say they feel they have been stonewalled by mint officials who refuse to budge.

Among the U.S. manufacturers of blanks is Sunshine Minting in Coeur d'Alene, Idaho, and Stern-Leach of Attleboro, Massachusetts. Nearly all U.S. Mint gold coins at manufactured at West Point, New York at a remote site on military academy grounds.

U.S. Mint spokesman Michael White told Mineweb refiners are running 24-hours a day, seven days a week trying to meet demand for blanks.

[airedale]

Is something cooking in NY? POG jumped $15 before the Nymex closed for the weekend. Most unusual.

[TTrader]

BUENOS AIRES, Argentina — Divers have concluded a mission to retrieve 9.5 tons of unrefined gold and silver worth nearly $22 million from a shipwreck off southern Argentina.

http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5gV4lr1jqJBxd5Vbd0MaRsunxx5WgD99R0ATO4

[airedale]

Is something cooking in NY? POG jumped $15 before the Nymex closed for the weekend. Most unusual.


POG up by another $10 to $966 despite the Nymex being open. Looks like another attempt at $1000 and beyond may be building up.

[JBmurc]

Monday August 24, 10:20 AM

INTERVIEW - ETF Sec eyes $1bln assets in Japan by end-'10
By Chikako Mogi and Chikafumi Hodo

TOKYO (Reuters) - ETF Securities Ltd, an operator of commodity exchange-traded funds (ETFs), said it aims to have $1 billion in assets under management in Japan by the end of 2010 as it makes its debut on the Tokyo Stock Exchange on Monday.

The London-based company launches five new ETFs on the Tokyo bourse on Monday -- Physical Gold, Physical Silver, Physical Platinum, Physical Palladium and a Physical PM Basket ETF.

"I would say within 18 months by the end of next year, I would hope for $1 billion equivalent (for all items in Japan)," Hector McNeil, ETF Securities' global head of sales and marketing, told Reuters, saying that this was a conservative target.

"ETF Securities will be aggressive about launching more ETF products in Japan by the end of 2010," he said, adding that Japanese investors could be offered 50 commodities-related ETFs, including industrial metals and energy, as well as equities ETF products.

ETF Securities is also considering offering localised contracts in Japan, such as rubber and rice, although much will depend on liquidity, he said.

The company is planning to expand its foothold in Asia, eyeing listing its funds in Singapore, then Hong Kong within the next 18 months, McNeil said.

McNeil said the firm has already held talks with bourses in Hong Kong and Singapore, adding that it was also looking to China, as well South Korea, Indonesia and Taiwan.

Besides Japan, the company already has funds listed in Australia.

ETF Securities, which offered the world's first listing of exchange-traded commodities (ETCs) in 2003, issues securities backed by physical stocks of commodities such as precious metals, giving investors exposure to movements in the asset price without having to buy and store the commodity themselves.

In late July, ETF Securities launched a U.S. silver trust on the New York Stock Exchange.

"Certainly, we would want to become the leading provider of ETFs in the Asian region. That's our ultimate aim and objective," McNeil said.

"The great thing about Asia is that nobody has really established dominance and footprint ..., so we feel it's actually the place where the opportunity is," he said.

ETF Securities has a business model that should see little impact from U.S. moves to tighten regulations on positions in U.S. futures markets, McNeil said.

Exchange-traded funds have become a top target in U.S. regulators' efforts to rein in excessive speculation in oil and other commodity markets, the Wall Street Journal reported on Saturday.

"Obviously CFTC is particularly focused on futures and not on physical assets ... So we feel quite confident that our products are robust from all aspects, McNeil said.

"And in fact we have several products (registered) in the U.S. currently and we've been given no indication that they will be affected," he said.

"Clearly we'll keep an eye on that," McNeil said of the development. "I think they (U.S. regulators) realise that if they push too hard investors will look elsewhere. I think the last thing they want to do is to drive investment offshore."

On market outlook, McNeil said gold prices would stay around current levels in the short term. Spot gold traded around $950 per ounce on Monday, keeping in a broad range between $920-$970 since rising near $990 in early June.

"Gold is now driven by the dollar, but the price could jump in the long term on possible supply shortage, as well as concerns over inflation," he said. "I think $3,000 is probably the best or the worst case... I don't know ... But the psychological barrier of $1,000 could be breached very very quickly.

[TTrader]

Bet me to it JBmurc... Another interesting article over at CNBC.

Entitled Charts: Gold to Hit $1,040 'Very Quickly'; S&P to Weaken

http://www.cnbc.com/id/32562897

Gold's "breaking out" to a higher level as imminent, Chris Locke, managing director at Oystertrade.com Management, told CNBC Wednesday, as other analysts have said the precious metal could shine again as inflation fears resurface.

"We're on this point of the market making a substantial move to the upside," Locke said.

"We will see the market move through the bull market highs of $1,040 very, very quickly," he added.

The S&P 500 index has maintained its uptrend from the March lows and the next target for it is 1,050, Locke said. But for the fall period, Locke sees the index weakening.

Locke told CNBC he's been looking for a signal that the U.S. index will peak in August before correcting slightly, but that signal hasn't occurred yet.

But he said he's "seeing some kind of loss of momentum to the upside" and therefore predicted that the September to November period "will be weaker" and will test the levels below 950.

He also sees sterling reaching "levels towards parity" against the euro, at 95 cents. "Sterling looks the most vulnerable to me," he said.
© 2009 CNBC.com

[airedale]

POG at $978.60 today. Even rose strongly on the Nymex. Perhaps the Nymex manipulators have gone long.:)

[srowe]

Holy Mac!
In the blink of an eye gold is heading towards the $1000 mark

[arco]

Current potential perhaps to 1030. Main target price area is the dark grey box with fringe area the lighter grey box.

http://i28.tinypic.com/jrxtax.gif

[stevo1]

China pushes silver and gold investment to the masses
A report suggests that the Chinese government is pushing the general public into buying gold and silver bullion, which could have a dramatic effect on the markets.

Author: Lawrence Williams
Posted: Thursday , 03 Sep 2009

LONDON -

We are indebted again to Paul Mylchreest's Thunder Road Report for news that will bring big smiles to gold and silver investors everywhere. Apparently China is pushing the idea of buying gold and silver for investment purposes to the general population in the way that Western television sells soap powder. If 1.3 billion Chinese citizens start buying gold and silver, even in tiny quantities, imagine what that will do to the market!

The report notes that China's Central Television, the main state-owned television company, has run a news programme letting the public know how easy it is to buy precious metals as an investment. On silver investment the announcer is quoted as saying " China has introduced its first ever investment opportunity for silver bullion. The bars are available in 500g, 1kg, 2kg and 5kg with a purity of 99.9%. Figures show that gold was fifty times more expensive than silver in 2007, but now that figure has reached over seventy times. Analysts say that silver has been undervalued in recent years. They add that the metal is the right investment for individual investors and could be a good way to cash in."

What appears to have happened in China is a total relaxation of strictures on holding precious metals by the individual with the government pushing gold and silver as an investment option, seemingly at every opportunity. This is a far cry from the situation only a few years ago where the distribution of gold and silver was strictly controlled. Now, the Thunder Road Report notes that every bank will sell gold and silver bullion bars in four different sizes to individuals and gold related investments are said to be soaring in popularity.

Around a year ago, Leyshon Resources managing director, Paul Atherley, in an investor presentation in London - and no doubt delivered elsewhere in the world too - commented that some employees at the company's gold mining project in northern China would, on pay day, go to the local bank and buy a small gold bar as an investment and wealth protector. To an extent we put this down at the time to mining company hype - but this seems to be exactly the same phenomenon noted by Thunder Road. The Chinese are being converted from being the lowest per capita gold consumers in the world to a nation of small precious metals investors. Now, by next year, Chinese consumption of gold is likely to exceed that of India, which has been for years the world's biggest gold market. And one suspects that the potential for gold purchasing by individuals is only in its earliest stages. As more and more Chinese move into the cities and individual wealth grows, this trend is only likely to accelerate.

Paul ends the piece on Chinese gold and silver potential with the following comment: "Simply put, the Chinese government is trying to trigger a national gold craze...and it's working. The Chinese public now has gold trading platforms on steroids.... ...Also, for the first time in history, Chinese investors can even trade gold abroad (in London) with the swipe of a ‘Lucky Gold' card. I can't even get Bank of America to open a foreign currency account."

This may be an overstatement of the case from a precious metals bull - or it may not! Certainly if China is indeed pushing the public to buy gold then there may well be a hidden agenda here. It's unlikely they are doing it and will suddenly pull the rug out from under millions of investors. A cynic (or a raging gold bull) would suggest that this will precede a move to switch a good proportion of the country's reserves into gold which would have a huge effect on the global gold price and could prove disastrous for the dollar. Maybe it's not in China's interests to drive the dollar down too much until it has managed to divest itself of the huge dollar overhang (see the article on Chinese Sovereign Wealth Funds we published yesterday - Chinese sovereign wealth fund dumping dollars for strategic investments like gold ). The country may well already be, of course, surreptitiously building its gold reserves without reporting the build-up.
If the Chinese are indeed beginning to buy gold and silver as the quoted report suggests then this has to be a strong signal that prices are going to rise, and perhaps rise dramatically, in the relatively near future. We await comment from other China watchers for confirmation of the gold and silver buying spree, but with global gold production at best flat and probably in decline, even a small increase in Chinese buying could have a substantial impact on gold and silver prices.

Article scource

http://www.mineweb.com/mineweb/view/mineweb/en/page33?oid=88452&sn=Detail

[Dr_Who]

WOW! thanks for the article Stevo.

I am gonna do some more research into this theory.

[TTrader]

Early retirement!

[TTrader]

Bloomberg

Gold May Advance Toward $1,000 as Weakening Dollar Spurs Demand

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601012&sid=ajJmIoz.nmLc

By Nicholas Larkin

Sept. 7 (Bloomberg) -- Gold, little changed near a six- month high in London today, may rise toward $1,000 an ounce as a weakening dollar increases the metal’s appeal as an alternative investment. Silver climbed to a 13-month high.

The dollar slipped as much as 0.4 percent against the euro as a report showed European investor confidence increased for a second month in September. Gold tends to rise when the greenback weakens. Bullion last surpassed $1,000 on Feb. 20.

“The underlying factor is still the dollar,” Dan Smith, a Standard Chartered Plc analyst in London, said by phone today. “If we do see a break in the dollar, it could be one of the triggers to take gold higher.”

Immediate-delivery bullion added 79 cents, or 0.1 percent, to $995.19 an ounce by 4:52 p.m. in London, erasing a gain of as much as 0.3 percent. The metal jumped 4.1 percent last week, the most since April. December gold futures slipped 10 cents to $996.60 an ounce in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange’s Comex division.

Comex floor trading in New York and Chicago is closed today for the U.S. Labor Day holiday.

“Volatility could step up across the rest of the week as markets exit the summer doldrums and traders and investors position for the remainder of the year,” James Moore, an analyst at TheBullionDesk.com in London, wrote in a report.

Higher ‘Fixing’

The metal increased to $992.75 an ounce in the morning “fixing” in London, used by some mining companies to sell production, from $989 at the afternoon fixing on Sept. 4.

“Sustained gains could be difficult without a pull back,” Pradeep Unni, an analyst at Richcomm Global Services in Dubai, said in a report. “Gold could be hit by near-term profit- taking.”

Bullion is 3.6 percent below a record $1,032.70 an ounce set in London in March 2008 and has rallied every year since 2000. Spot prices have gained in seven of the past eight weeks.

“The price increase is of speculative nature, but gold will be able to temporarily break through the $1,000 mark,” Eugen Weinberg, a senior analyst with Commerzbank AG, wrote in a Sept. 4 note. “Currently there is insufficient fundamental support to allow for a sustained rise beyond this level.”

Holdings of bullion in the SPDR Gold Trust, the biggest exchange-traded fund backed by the metal, fell 0.38 metric ton to 1,077.63 tons on Sept. 4, data on the company’s Web site showed. The fund reached a record 1,134.03 tons on June 1. Holdings in ETF Securities Ltd.’s exchange-traded commodities rose 1,426 ounces to a record 7.993 million ounces on Sept. 4, its Web site showed.

Scrap Sales

“Overall market sentiment is still upbeat with constantly improving macro data, inflation expectations are idle, physical demand is absent, and scrap sales could only intensify at these prices,” Andrey Kryuchenkov, a VTB Capital analyst in London, wrote in a note. “As soon as risk appetite comes when the markets settle down ahead of the fourth quarter, gold will suffer a painful correction.”

Silver for immediate delivery in London climbed as much as 0.8 percent to $16.3638 an ounce, the highest since August 2008, and last traded at $16.325. The metal has rallied 43 percent in London this year, more than triple gold’s 13 percent gain.

Among other metals for immediate delivery in London, platinum added 0.6 percent to $1,262.50 an ounce. Palladium was 0.2 percent lower at $292 an ounce after earlier reaching $295, the highest price in a year.

ETF Securities’ palladium holdings advanced 11 percent to a record 452,488 ounces on Sept. 4. Platinum assets slipped 0.6 percent to 328,682 ounces.

To contact the reporter on this story: Nicholas Larkin in London at nlarkin1 AT bloomberg DOT net
Last Updated: September 7, 2009 12:22 EDT

[TTrader]

Looks like we will be hitting 1,000USD/oz when NYSE opens.

:)

[ScrappyO]

Looks like we will be hitting 1,000USD/oz when NYSE opens.

:)

Over $1000 now

[Dr_Who]

The $1k mark if a massive resistance. If gold can hold above $1k for a period of time, sky's the limit.

[TTrader]

The $1k mark if a massive resistance. If gold can hold above $1k for a period of time, sky's the limit.

Indeed. Early yesterday afternoon the rise in gold was simply a result of the falling USD.. However overnight it has picked up against all major currencies.

The 1k mark is not only where the resistance lies but is also a key psychological point in the POG.

Only time will tell where we go from here :)

[airedale]

The $1k mark if a massive resistance. If gold can hold above $1k for a period of time, sky's the limit.

Hi Doc, I am bullish on gold also, but let's be realistic. No tree ever grows all the way to the sky.

[arco]

Gold rush may soon be at an end (for now).

Already into the dark grey box (see previous chart #535) - so reversal looks imminent

http://i26.tinypic.com/vp9jwi.gif

[peat]

I'm sure your last post originally had a graph of silver arco....:p

http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/Article/Gold-is-the-commodity-of-craziness-pd20090909-VPSVF?OpenDocument&src=rab

[arco]

Well spotted Peat.

I snagged both charts, and then initially put the wrong one on the Gold thread.

There was a few bob in it for anyone the took a quick short.

[TTrader]

Has been a good 24h leveraged up 250K USD worth of gold ETFs yesterday.

Currently showing a 0.9% increase :) Looks like it will be worth holding them again tonight.. Time will tell.

Have also noticed a bit of a serge in bullion being listed on Trademe. Saw a 1kg (Perth Mint) bar being listed the other day which isn't something you see often. Also for anyone who collects sovereigns there are some reasonable deals on sella.co.nz (No success fees) have seen a few half's go for 180/185.

[arco]

Updating post #542

Into the light grey zone.

http://i27.tinypic.com/2n1axeg.gif

[airedale]

I wonder if Aussie is still out there. He beat the drum when POG was $950 and less. He should come out for a bow now that POG is touching $1020.:)

[tobo]

today's candle has no lower shadow and very small upper shadow, and body is mid size - suggests momentum may carry on a little longer in the light grey before runs out of steam... a few more dollars tonight?

[stevo1]

Part of a report from Commoditieonline

have posted this also on the silver vs us dollar thread


Full article here

http://www.commodityonline.com/news/...21219-3-1.html


Here in China, our firm SinoLatin Capital has been approached by numerous Chinese companies specifically looking to acquire gold mines in Latin America. We've studied the market for some time and we see China making several Latin American gold mining acquisitions over the next few years. How can retail investors benefit from these trends? One interesting way to play the South American gold market is AngloGold Ashanti (AU



But back to China. How could China affect the price of gold? We live in China and spend a lot of time with local industry leaders and policy makers. We hear repeatedly that the time has come to think seriously about how to survive the perceived dollar devaluation. In some cases we note serious concern, and in other cases absolute dread over a perceived dollar crash.


Over the past six months Beijing has made a series of moves to protect itself against a dollar devaluation. In a recent "BRIC Summit" in Russia several months ago, Chinese leaders came out strongly in favor of a new reserve currency to replace the dollar (including the IMF's "SDR" currency). China is also quietly purchasing mining assets and gold bullion. But the government has recently gone further.
As recently as 2002, the private ownership of gold was prohibited in China. You could be jailed if caught with any in your possession. Beginning in 2009, in a stunning about-face, the central government removed all restrictions. In fact, as Mineweb and other sources report now it is actively pushing folks to buy some personal metal, with China’s Central Television, the main state-owned television company, running news programs cum infomercials, letting the public know just how easy it is to purchase gold and silver as an investment.

[Dr_Who]

My stress test is telling me to be careful of gold when my barber and taxi drivers are talking about investing in gold. :eek:

[arco]

IMF Executive Board Approves Limited Sales of Gold to Finance the Fund’s New Income Model and to Boost Concessional Lending Capacity

September 18, 2009 The Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) today approved gold sales in a volume strictly limited to 403.3 metric tons

http://www.imf.org/external/np/sec/pr/2009/pr09310.htm

[peat]

just to put that in a more understandble metric thats about 13 million oz's - based on the statement that 400 tons is 1/8th of their holding and their entire holding is 103.4 million oz ( = 3,217 tonnes)
http://www.imf.org/external/np/exr/facts/gold.htm

I guess that would be enough to put a bit of a lid on price...

[arco]

.

Quite interesting how they manage to pull these little tricks just when my grey boxes come into focus :cool:

(Evening Star on the Daily)

http://i35.tinypic.com/2z5rqk7.gif

[lakedaemonian]

IMF Executive Board Approves Limited Sales of Gold to Finance the Fund’s New Income Model and to Boost Concessional Lending Capacity

September 18, 2009 The Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) today approved gold sales in a volume strictly limited to 403.3 metric tons

http://www.imf.org/external/np/sec/pr/2009/pr09310.htm


I view this as a means to TRY and supress the gold market as well as provide a means of justified government to government gold sales:

XXX to China for example

Probably can rule out the UK as PM Briwn sold the UK's gold when it was at a multi-decade low 10 years back.

Gives China a chance to hedge a bit of it's excess paper.

[arco]

Yes, I'm sure China would love to take a heap of that gold paying with some of their pile of devaluing green-backs.

[zero]

That the IMF intended to sell 400 tons of gold has been public knowledge for at least a year.

[arco]

That the IMF intended to sell 400 tons of gold has been public knowledge for at least a year.

It may have been public knowledge, but I was unaware of it, and I'm sure that would apply to many people. And if it was public knowledge why have the IMF just made the announcement on September 18, 2009 stating "The Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) today approved gold sales in a volume strictly limited to 403.3 metric tons"?

Whatever, it has created a set-off now, which is what I was expecting.

http://i35.tinypic.com/351x44o.gif

[arco]

It appears the IMF may have used this tactic at previous peaks to try and drive the price of gold down, see March 2008, Feb 2009

http://i34.tinypic.com/or13jb.gif

[airedale]

Hi Arco, looking at the POG chart since 2002/2003, the IMF strategy/tactic [if there is one] seemst to have only a temporary effect.
Today it looks like an orderly retracement to support at $1,000 level.

[Dr_Who]

It appears the IMF may have used this tactic at previous peaks to try and drive the price of gold down, see March 2008, Feb 2009



Why would the IMF want to drive the price of gold down?

[arco]

Thousands of Americans are joining protests and lobbying their politicians in pursuit of the ultimate goal of replacing the Fed with a money system backed by gold or other commodities.

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/business/story/0,28124,26085667-36375,00.html

[arco]

Why would the IMF want to drive the price of gold down?

So they can buy it back cheaper later on maybe?

[lakedaemonian]

It appears the IMF may have used this tactic at previous peaks to try and drive the price of gold down, see March 2008, Feb 2009

http://i34.tinypic.com/or13jb.gif

Yup.......you may not be able to set your watch to it, but certainly your calender. :)

It's like a game of Whack-A-Mole

[lakedaemonian]

So they can buy it back cheaper later on maybe?

What I find hilarious is how the talking heads(certainly prodded by government/fed) try to portray anyone who says "gold" as a nutter.

If you said "gold" 5+ years ago you certainly would have been burned at the media stake(I always think of that old Monty Python Holy Grail skit)...it was(and is) garlic to the financial industry vampires, and a stake in the heart of currency sovereignty(particularly reserve currency).....but it seems to be wearing off.

At the end of the day, if Gold isn't a form of currency, Central Banks would have divested from it completely long ago.

Gordon Brown will go down in history as an absolutely horrible PM.....the icing on the cake for Brown is how he dumped UK gold when prices bottomed.....he will probably go down in history as the UK's "Economic Chamberlain".

I've been in gold for a good few years now....I only wish I had entered beginning in 99/00 instead of 03/04...and I only wish I had bought more.....high single digit, low double digit % allocation was too low and it's been a struggle to get to the 30%(as recommended by iTulip) at a comfortable price.

iTulip has been in Gold since 99.....I read a lot about gold elsewhere, but always return there for analysis to get me off the fence.

Their position is that Gold will help retain buying power of capital for individuals, as well as potentially be used as a "bridge" <---(my term not theirs) to whatever Breckon Woods 2.0-ish system comes next.

If only iTulip was able to produce their long awaited "energy investment thesis" to match their "gold thesis".....I lost patience and have been looking towards energy as a volatile form of future currency.

[airedale]

Hi Lake, who/what is itulip?

http://www.minesite.com/nc/aus/minews/singlenews/article/barrick-golds-decision-to-close-off-billions-of-dollars-worth-of-gold-hedges-is-a-clear-sign-of-chi/1.html

[arco]

Hi Lake, who/what is itulip?

http://www.minesite.com/nc/aus/minews/singlenews/article/barrick-golds-decision-to-close-off-billions-of-dollars-worth-of-gold-hedges-is-a-clear-sign-of-chi/1.html

Just in case lake isn't around.

http://www.itulip.com/forums/index.php

You'll need plenty of time :)

[airedale]

Thanks,Arco, POG has gone from $1006 to 1012 in the last few minutes. Of course it often goes up or down by more than that, but it suggests that $1,000 is well supported.

[Dr_Who]

WOW! Talk about firepower! :eek:

GOLD picked up in Asian trade this morning, edging above $US1005/oz - and the word is that Beijing is suggesting it may put up its hand for the entire 403 tonnes of the yellow metal about to be put on sale by the International Monetary Fund.

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/business/story/0,28124,26109593-36418,00.html

[TTrader]

Gold Up Again!, Should make for interesting night/very early morning trading :)

US gold ends up, nears $1,020/oz on dollar tumble
http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idAFN2235934920090922?rpc=44

Good summary of the last few days over at BullionVault also:
http://goldnews.bullionvault.com/gold_china_092220096

[shasta]

Gold Up Again!, Should make for interesting night/very early morning trading :)

US gold ends up, nears $1,020/oz on dollar tumble
http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idAFN2235934920090922?rpc=44

Good summary of the last few days over at BullionVault also:
http://goldnews.bullionvault.com/gold_china_092220096

Probably should post this on the Silver thread, but relevant to Gold & PGM's.

Silver, PGMs to outperform gold as it hits well over $1,300/oz - Melek

http://www.mineweb.net/mineweb/view/mineweb/en/page33?oid=89666&sn=Detail

[Aussie]

I wonder if Aussie is still out there. He beat the drum when POG was $950 and less. He should come out for a bow now that POG is touching $1020.:)

Still here and checkin' in occasionally. Just ridin' the train up . . .

Concerned the dollar may be oversold and we could see a healthy pull back in the POG. I'd love to kiss $950 just one-more-time before permanent lift-off into the four figure realm . . .

[airedale]

Hi Aussie, I don't think that the US dollar is oversold, after printing a zillion more dollars recently it is finding a new [lower]level. $1,000 looks like support now.
In fact the 1000 bench mark was passed with little media comment which indicates a steady up trend still in place.

[Aussie]

Hi Aussie, I don't think that the US dollar is oversold . . .

I just think it's due for a bounce. An October market correction may provide it. Long-term there's little doubt it's going lower but things never move in a straight line. The gold stocks have had a nice run too. I have lightened up a little. A correction would suit me fine.

[airedale]

Something unusual happened overnight.POG rose by $10 even when the Nymex was open. Perhaps the last of the Nymex shorts have been shaken out.
Agree with you Aussie, a retracement at this point would be a good entry/re-entry point.

[airedale]

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/the-demise-of-the-dollar-1798175.html

This article could go on any of the pages on Forex, but I'll post it here on the gold page.
It sounds more genuine than most beat ups, and Robert Fisk has a good name.

[Aussie]

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/the-demise-of-the-dollar-1798175.html

This article could go on any of the pages on Forex, but I'll post it here on the gold page.
It sounds more genuine than most beat ups, and Robert Fisk has a good name.

Jim Willie has been writing about this for a year now. I think the USD will continue it's long-term, controlled slide south, but I'm not so sure that it will lose it's key global position because in the short term at least, there is nothing else out there to replace it with. But a trend is certainly starting to emerge with countries (China/Russia - China/Brazil) settling trade in each other's currencies rather than USD. So I guess it could become more and more marginalized. Oil is the big unknown, if peak oil really is true and over the coming years becomes more and more expensive to extract, then oil producing countries will want something more substantial than USD - they may even demand gold!

[Dr_Who]

There is talk that the Chinese is preparing for a float of the Yuan in a few years. they will back the Yuan with commodities and not just a worthless piece of paper like the US$ and the Pound.

[shasta]

There is talk that the Chinese is preparing for a float of the Yuan in a few years. they will back the Yuan with commodities and not just a worthless piece of paper like the US$ and the Pound.

....and the chinese are really getting into Silver ;)

Smart play is to buy what they are...

[Aussie]

There is talk that the Chinese is preparing for a float of the Yuan in a few years. they will back the Yuan with commodities and not just a worthless piece of paper like the US$ and the Pound.

I thought they got all their commodities from Australia . . .:D

[Dr_Who]

I thought they got all their commodities from Australia . . .:D

Yeah, they are backing the Chinese Yuan into Aust. Aust will be the vault for their currency... a win/win situation. :p:D

[Lego_Man]

Well...AUD POG hasnt moved an inch in months. I suspect that same is true for NZD POG.

Nothing to see here fellas...

[CAM]

Well...AUD POG hasnt moved an inch in months. I suspect that same is true for NZD POG.

Nothing to see here fellas...


http://charts.infomine.com/multivariantcharts/showchart.aspx?mv=1&f=f&r=6m&c=cgold.xnzd.uoz,cgold.xaud.uoz

[TTrader]

Harrods department store in London has has just added gold bars to its merchandise line.

http://www.stuff.co.nz/world/europe/2971527/Store-sells-gold-by-the-bar

Bet there is a huge premium buying over the counter, I would even be a little worried about security walking out of a retail store with a pocket full of bullion.

Either way interesting concept.

[peat]

well I guess at 12.5 kg it rules out the shoeshine boys, but somehow it reminds me of the story. contrarian signal?

discl
hold silver.

[Aussie]

well I guess at 12.5 kg it rules out the shoeshine boys, but somehow it reminds me of the story. contrarian signal?

discl
hold silver.

Nah, the average Joe has no clue about gold . . . yet.:D

[JBmurc]

Nah, the average Joe has no clue about gold . . . yet.:D

No an even less clue about Silver till average joe wakes up I'm buying an not selling 1oz

Brought a couple 5kgs Silver bars($4350ea) the other day taking my holding to 45kilos

[CAM]

fake gold bars?
http://harveyorgan.blogspot.com/2009/10/oct-1709-commentaryimportant.html

[JBmurc]

fake gold bars?
http://harveyorgan.blogspot.com/2009/10/oct-1709-commentaryimportant.html

great read even more reason to buy Silver bullion

[CAM]

great read even more reason to buy Silver bullion

or some tungsten :D

[Aussie]

You obviously dislike gold, what's you problem CAM?

[dragonz]

Gold will go to $Us 1500

[Aussie]

Gold will go to $Us 1500

I have no doubt it will, but that won't be helpful to us here if the NZD is US$1.50 or US$2.00 . . . truth is, gold IS rising in all currencies.

The BIG problem that nobody talks about is the fact that the vast majority of reserve assets held by central banks around the world are in USD instruments - Dollars, Treasuries and agency debt . . .

What happens to local currencies like the AUD and NZD when a USD currency crisis finally emerges and supports get cut out from underneath them?

[dragonz]

I have no doubt it will, but that won't be helpful to us here if the NZD is US$1.50 or US$2.00 . . . truth is, gold IS rising in all currencies.

The BIG problem that nobody talks about is the fact that the vast majority of reserve assets held by central banks around the world are in USD instruments - Dollars, Treasuries and agency debt . . .

What happens to local currencies like the AUD and NZD when a USD currency crisis finally emerges and supports get cut out from underneath them?

I would say that theres a bigger probability that Gold will be in Euros before we see NZD is US$1.50 or US$2.00 . Very valid point however.

[CAM]

You obviously dislike gold, what's you problem CAM?

I can't afford it !! ...haha
No I don't dislike it....thought I would just post stuff that people might find of interest.
If I had the money I would buy some gold. But circumstances don't allow it (money goes on feeding the family and paying the mortgage) so I buy a little silver now and then when I can. I do have a little gold ....some coins from my departed Grandfathers collection.
There is a bunch of stuff in one of Jason Hommells latest newsletters about fake gold and silver coins etc. Always pays to be informed about what you are buying.

[srotherh]

I have no doubt it will, but that won't be helpful to us here if the NZD is US$1.50 or US$2.00 . . . truth is, gold IS rising in all currencies.

The BIG problem that nobody talks about is the fact that the vast majority of reserve assets held by central banks around the world are in USD instruments - Dollars, Treasuries and agency debt . . .

What happens to local currencies like the AUD and NZD when a USD currency crisis finally emerges and supports get cut out from underneath them?

Aussie
Correct
Problem for NZ is all reserves are in $USD
Even reserve bank realises that

http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/a7bbab63/bollard-talks-down-impact-of-rate-hike-on-kiwi-raises-problem-with-intervening.html

At the same hearing, Deputy Governor Grant Spencer confirmed New Zealand’s central bank was trying to move its assets away from the greenback as the world’s reserve currency remained out of favour with investors.

“We’re trying to reduce our exposure to U.S. dollars as it heads south,” Spencer said.

[peat]

Aussie
At the same hearing, Deputy Governor Grant Spencer confirmed New Zealand’s central bank was trying to move its assets away from the greenback as the world’s reserve currency remained out of favour with investors.

“We’re trying to reduce our exposure to U.S. dollars as it heads south,” Spencer said.


hard to imagine them buying gold - is that what you're suggesting putting that quote in this thread?

and if not, what? are they buying kiwis?? hahah maybe they're pushing up the NZD

[srotherh]

hard to imagine them buying gold - is that what you're suggesting putting that quote in this thread?

and if not, what? are they buying kiwis?? hahah maybe they're pushing up the NZD

Pete
Not suggesting they will buy gold but point out they are between a rock and a hard place with the all the $US they hold
The Chinese govt are smart Divesting their $ by investing into basically commodities ,commodity companies and countries and guess what , they are also buying gold

"The latter comment came from the first speaker in the session, Zhou Zhongshu, President of China Minmetals Corp.
He had begun by considering the effects of the global financial crisis and noting how companies like his had helped support Australia’s mining industry. He quoted a figure of $9.7 billion that had been invested this year in Australia’s mining industry by the time of the conference. But, he said, companies around the world "need more help in getting capital from China."

[Aussie]

srotherh, China is now the largest gold producer in the world and the Chinese are buying 100% of their own domestic production. Plus, they are actually buying more in the open market while at the same time - encouraging their population to use their own savings to buy gold and silver . . . what does that say about what they think about the future of fiat money . . . ?

[airedale]

I half heard something on BBC radio last night about the Russians selling 10 tonnes? maybe, or just a large quantity of gold to raise some cash.I imagine that it will find plenty of willing buyers in the present climate.

[peat]

I've been watching a doco on Fort Knox and couldnt resist sharing this pic :eek:

[arco]

That guy on the right....whats that in his left side pocket?

[TTrader]

I've been watching a doco on Fort Knox and couldnt resist sharing this pic :eek:

Modern Marvels: Fort Knox?

[peat]

Modern Marvels: Fort Knox?

History Channel:Fort Knox Secrets Revealed (2006)

[airedale]

Hi peat, did they say when the stockpile was last counted? The scuttlebutt on the gold conspiracy sites is that it hasn't been audited for yonks. Hard to believe, but who knows?;)

[peat]

There was no mention of a recent audit. They extensively interviewed a guy who was hired (tapped on the shoulder) to be their auditor but he was made redundant in 88 also with no obvious reason.
So that idea was not debunked at all.
At some stage in the 70's politicians kicked up a stink and that was the last time the public i.e a few politicians and journalists were allowed in to see the gold.
If anything the programme aroused a lot of suspicion due to the impenetrable secrecy but emphasized how safe the gold was due to it being right next to a huge military camp, indeed it spent the last 1/3rd of the programme examining the history of the tank and the amazing training environment in the adjacent Camp Knox. It was impressive too.

But that doesnt make me believe the gold is safe ;)

[miner]

Was talking to a yank the other month who said they chopped all the trees down (some hundreds of years old) around fort knox so as no one could sneak up on there gold.

Usual onto it yanks as no doubt the bad guy plotting to nick there gold was going to sneak up on them one tree at a time.

[peat]

yes thats right miner... they mentioned that. they now have four virtual walls monitored by sophisticated computer systems which virtualised the display onto one screen so one person can watch it.
Everything was real high tech.
However with that approach if you could hack the computer system you could convince the guard(s) that everything was safe

[miner]

Dauh good one peat now everyone knows our cunning plan.

[Aussie]

Hi peat, did they say when the stockpile was last counted? . . . )

According to GATA it has not been audited since the Eisenhower Administration.

[JBmurc]

The International Monetary Fund said on Monday it sold 200 tonnes of gold to the Reserve Bank of India for a total of $US6.7 billion ($7.4 billion) as part of the global institution's plans to increase its lending resources.

The sale is part of an agreement struck in September among IMF member countries to sell 403.3 tonnes of the fund's gold stocks to diversify its sources of income and to increase low-cost lending to poor countries.

"I strongly welcome this transaction with the Reserve Bank of India," the IMF's managing director, Dominique Strauss-Kahn, said in a statement.

"This transaction is an important step toward achieving the objectives of the IMF's limited gold sales program, which are to help put the fund's finances on a sound long-term footing and enable us to step up much-needed concessional lending to the poorest countries"

A senior IMF official, speaking on condition of anonymity, told a conference call the gold sales were conducted daily over a two-week period from October 19-30, to "give some protection to short-term fluctuations in the market."

The official said India's central bank paid on average about $US1045 an ounce for the gold and the transaction would be paid in hard currency and not in IMF Special Drawing Rights, the IMF's internal unit of account.

Spot gold prices have rallied since September as dollar weakness has helped to spur consecutive weeks of gains. Gold hit a record high last month of $US1070.40. On Monday, gold rose above $US1060 an ounce as the US dollar fell against the euro.

The IMF official declined to say whether other central banks have expressed interest in buying the remaining 203.3 tonnes of gold on tap for sale. He said if no other central banks came forward, the IMF would proceed as planned to sell the gold in the market.

Reuters

[peat]

nice timing Bank of India - tho I suppose its a bit difficult to flick 6 and half million oz's ;)

[ScrappyO]

nice timing Bank of India - tho I suppose its a bit difficult to flick 6 and half million oz's ;)

Would that be actual physical gold. If so wouldn't want to be the ones transporting it.

[Nevl]

Would that be actual physical gold. If so wouldn't want to be the ones transporting it.

Haha the great thing about gold is it never moves once its dug up. Crazy industry really. They dig up the gold pour it into blocks and then bury it again in subterrean bank vaults. A better case of wasted effort i cannot imagine. In fact its probaly a smart thing not to sell mined gold but to sell the gold before its mined. Same diff really. Ross has maybe 1mill ounces left so we should just sell it without digging it up. That would save moving the town and we could still get the money.

[peat]

I would think it would be physical possession , but I dont know that for sure. Anyone??

If I was buying anything for 6 billion I think I would want to see it and touch it and maybe even drill a few bars to see they're not tungsten , then store it somewhere I trusted , rather than rely on someone else to give me a certificate saying they would keep it safe for me ;).

[JBmurc]

I would think it would be physical possession , but I dont know that for sure. Anyone??

If I was buying anything for 6 billion I think I would want to see it and touch it and maybe even drill a few bars to see they're not tungsten , then store it somewhere I trusted , rather than rely on someone else to give me a certificate saying they would keep it safe for me ;).

Yes or it could be just like the -Fort Knox Gold-It's there but you can't see it or audit it but it is there because the powers that be say so.....

My 45kilo soon to be 47kilo of silver bullion is about 7 metres away from me in my personal safe just where I want it to be

[Nevl]

http://www.forbes.com/2008/01/29/gold-silver-diamonds-biz-cx_lm_0129vaults.html?partner=aol

Looks like its all in NYC!! Best nothing happens to Manhatten or all that gold is gone.

I remember my history teacher telling a story about all the worlds gold.

All the countries in the world collected their gold and kept it on an island in the middle of the Pacific. They chose 1 guy to look after it and every 6 months they would all sail to this island and make sure the gold was there.

Anyway this worked for many years until one day they all went out and found the guy had disappeared with all their gold. They were all bankrupt.

The point being that gold is just like Fiat money and just as imaginary.

[shasta]

Yes or it could be just like the -Fort Knox Gold-It's there but you can't see it or audit it but it is there because the powers that be say so.....

My 45kilo soon to be 47kilo of silver bullion is about 7 metres away from me in my personal safe just where I want it to be

JBMurc

You haven't got any gold on trade me have you?

Was having a look at gold coins, & noticed a Q'town seller

[JBmurc]

JBMurc

You haven't got any gold on trade me have you?

Was having a look at gold coins, & noticed a Q'town seller

Na did have awhile ago only silver now

[airedale]

Only a whisker or a couple of retracements away from US$1100 now. Not even any sign of any shorting on the Nymex for the last few weeks.

[srotherh]

INDIA BUYS GOLD – UK BUYS BANKS
November 3rd, 2009 by Egon von Greyerz, GoldSwitzerland

India, like China, understands the virtues of gold. This is why they have snapped up 200 tons of gold from the IMF at around $1,045 per ounce or $6.7 billion. The UK does not understand gold, that is why Gordon Brown sold most of the nation’s gold in 1999 at virtually the low of $250.

Instead the UK has today spent $51 billion on propping up bankrupt banks. Royal Bank of Scotland received another $41 billion today making it the costliest bailout worldwide with a total of $75 billion. Lloyds Bank received another $10 billion. The US is of course also spending printed money on rescuing bank creditors with 115 bank failures so far in 2009.

So who is likely to make the best return on their investment, India with their gold or the UK or US with their bankrupt banks. We certainly know who we will put our money on.

[Nevl]

Actually I am going for the Banks. Specially over a 5 year plus time frame.

[peat]

Rothschild leaves gold market

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/3628971.stm (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/3628971.stm)

[arco]

Peat

I couldn't get that link to work, but this is probably the same/similar article here

http://www.taxfreegold.co.uk/rothschildquitgoldmarket.html

[TTrader]

Both links are working here..

Either way makes you wonder if there is any reasoning behind it.


Last year, the business generated just 2.2% of the bank's income, down from more than 8% five years earlier.

They claim this part of the business is down to 2.2% of total income. However at the end of the day it is still profit and quite a large amount of coin given overall earnings.

Perhaps they are looking to start fulling their own coffers?

[srotherh]

Rothschild leaves gold market

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/3628971.stm (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/3628971.stm)

Hey Pete

They have probably been manipulating the market since $300 per ounce ??? (Nah that does not sound like the Rothchilds)
and maybe they realise now at over $1000 an ounce and govts start buying the physical item they no longer have control on the market.

And Nevel

Good luck backing banks that are being bailed out by government printed money.

[Dr_Who]

Jim Rogers think that gold will go to $2k.

[Nevl]

Hey Pete

They have probably been manipulating the market since $300 per ounce ??? (Nah that does not sound like the Rothchilds)
and maybe they realise now at over $1000 an ounce and govts start buying the physical item they no longer have control on the market.

And Nevel

Good luck backing banks that are being bailed out by government printed money.

Lloyds closed at 83.4 pence
rbs 35.4pence

gold $1089

ok give it 5 years.

[Nevl]

sorry GBP vs USD 1.658

we have our start point

[JBmurc]

Lloyds closed at 83.4 pence
rbs 35.4pence

gold $1089

ok give it 5 years.

I'd say it will take alot less than 5yrs to see the UK-US banks in an even worse state in comparison to real assets Gold Oil Silver etc than they have been -free fiat money is only going to last so long as to why -India,Russia,China,N Korea................................... are lining up to buy more Gold bullion from the likes of the IMF ....


Sri Lanka c.bank buying gold to diversify reserves
11.05.09, 04:55 AM EST

NEW DELHI, Nov 5 (Reuters) – Sri Lanka’s central bank has been buying gold for the past five or six months as it diversifies its reserves amid volatile markets, the bank’s governor said in an interview on Thursday.

‘We have been fairly strong accumulators of gold reserves over the past few months,’ Sri Lanka Central Bank Governor Ajith Nivard Cabraal told Reuters in a telephone interview from the southern Indian city of Chennai.

‘We haven’t stopped yet,’ he added, declining to quantify how much gold the central bank had bought or how much of the more than $4.8 billion of the country’s reserves were in gold.

‘Many countries are today diversifying. They are also looking at intrinsic value of their reserves, so gold would be a natural candidate for that kind of reserve accumulation,’ he said.

[Nevl]

I'd say it will take alot less than 5yrs to see the UK-US banks in an even worse state in comparison to real assets Gold Oil Silver etc than they have been -free fiat money is only going to last so long as to why -India,Russia,China,N Korea................................... are lining up to buy more Gold bullion from the likes of the IMF ....

ok I will buy 1000 Lloyds and 1000 RBS shares tonight on the London Market. You buy an ounce of Gold then lets see who is correct on Guy Fawkes 2014. The loser buys the fireworks.

[JBmurc]

ok I will buy 1000 Lloyds and 1000 RBS shares tonight on the London Market. You buy an ounce of Gold then lets see who is correct on Guy Fawkes 2014. The loser buys the fireworks.

Well personal I acutally do hold 45kilos of silver bullion as I do believe Silver will outperform gold by quite the margin..

But yeah say as of tonight 1oz NZ gold price close up against 1000 Lloyds an RBS shares in their NZD currency value on their close...mmmm hope you don't invest all your money into UK banks might end up having to make your own fireworks in 2014

[Nevl]

Well personal I acutally do hold 45kilos of silver bullion as I do believe Silver will outperform gold by quite the margin..

But yeah say as of tonight 1oz NZ gold price close up against 1000 Lloyds an RBS shares in their NZD currency value on their close...mmmm hope you don't invest all your money into UK banks might end up having to make your own fireworks in 2014

Haha i can use the share certs as wicks. Actually I will just get the CFD's and I expect RBS to be a drag but still good for a laugh. Will be complicated as we are also betting on the value of the NZ$ in 5 years and the pound. Will be an interesting experiment.

Will be fun. Cheers JB.

[Nevl]

ok got mine. Rbs at 38.5p and Lloyds at 83.48p kiwi at 43.63

Game on.

[Aussie]

. . . Problem for NZ is all reserves are in $USD
Even reserve bank realises that . . . “We’re trying to reduce our exposure to U.S. dollars as it heads south,” Spencer said.

I bet I have more gold backing me than the NZD does . . . :eek:

[Nevl]

ok got mine. Rbs at 38.5p and Lloyds at 83.48p kiwi at 43.63

Game on.

Cool up $60 already!!

[srotherh]

http://www.forbes.com/feeds/afx/2009/11/05/afx7089016.html

Sri Lanka c.bank buying gold to diversify reserves
11.05.09, 04:55 AM EST



NEW DELHI, Nov 5 (Reuters) - Sri Lanka's central bank has been buying gold for the past five or six months as it diversifies its reserves amid volatile markets, the bank's governor said in an interview on Thursday.

'We have been fairly strong accumulators of gold reserves over the past few months,' Sri Lanka Central Bank Governor Ajith Nivard Cabraal told Reuters in a telephone interview from the southern Indian city of Chennai.

'We haven't stopped yet,' he added, declining to quantify how much gold the central bank had bought or how much of the more than $4.8 billion of the country's reserves were in gold.


I bet Gordon Brown thinks they do not have a clue!!!!!!!!!

[Dr_Who]

The west is selling gold and the east is mopping them up. Someone is gonna come out a winner and a loser. Who is getting it right or wrong?

[JBmurc]

The west is selling gold and the east is mopping them up. Someone is gonna come out a winner and a loser. Who is getting it right or wrong?

the east with out doult the new world super powers will come from the EAST is why they are buying the gold just like the USA UK etc did back when they grew into super powers in the 1800- 1970 etc

does are government even hold any Gold?

[peat]

does are government even hold any Gold?

not a single oz

http://www.rbnz.govt.nz/statistics/extfin/sdds/sddssep09/data.html

[JBmurc]

not a single oz

http://www.rbnz.govt.nz/statistics/extfin/sdds/sddssep09/data.html

Even more reason to convert your NZD to silver gold bullion the true world currency

[Dr_Who]

We (NZ) dont have any money left to buy gold. All our hard earned money have gone to paying for politicians holidays, social welfare, Treaty settlement and the Super. :mad:

We should learn from Singapore on how to manage our public money. The Singaporeans have got it right with huge cash surplus at the same time still taking care of its people.

[TTrader]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gk5aRIz17fk&feature=player_embedded

[srotherh]

Lloyds closed at 83.4 pence
rbs 35.4pence

gold $1089

ok give it 5 years.

Hey Nevel
Should be called RB of Britain
They now own 86% of it according to this

http://www.wsws.org/articles/2009/nov2009/scot-n09.shtml

British government mounts world’s largest bank bailout
By Jean Shaoul
9 November 2009

Alistair Darling, the Chancellor of the Exchequer, has just announced the world’s biggest bailout for a single bank in a bid to rescue the Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS).

One year after an initial bailout, the government is to put an additional £25.5 billion into RBS, in which it already has a 74 percent stake. In addition it has set aside a further £8 billion in case the bank runs into further trouble, as is widely expected. While RBS insists it will only use this £8 billion in a dire emergency, the annual fee for this sum indicates a high probability of failure.

In order to maintain the fiction that this is still a private and not a publicly owned bank, the government’s additional equity stake, equivalent to a further 12 percent stake, will not have voting rights, allowing RBS to retain its listing on the London Stock Exchange.

Despite the bailout, there is to be no attempt to control the bank’s activities. It will be business as usual as far as proprietary trading is concerned—trading in risky financial instruments. While the government has announced a cap on cash bonuses for top banking executives, this is only a deferment for three years and still leaves numerous ways of circumventing the cap.

The Treasury will also underwrite £282 billion of its toxic assets, less than the £325 billion RBS had applied for in February. This is in return for the bank agreeing to accept a larger proportion of the costs should it prove unable to recover the book value of its assets.

[Dr_Who]

Lloyds closed at 83.4 pence
rbs 35.4pence

gold $1089

ok give it 5 years.

I actually think that Lloyds is actually worth a look at during their huge rights issue next month. This will have to go into my long term portfolio. Dont get me wrong, I still hold gold through my IRN holding, but still think there is value in battered banks like Lloyds.

Great play if both have a natural hedge.

[Footsie]

i own some lloyds. I think im down something like 98%

I'm holding :)

[Nevl]

I actually think that Lloyds is actually worth a look at during their huge rights issue next month. This will have to go into my long term portfolio. Dont get me wrong, I still hold gold through my IRN holding, but still think there is value in battered banks like Lloyds.

Great play if both have a natural hedge.

yeah not taking in seriously and if i wasn't betting would have got Barclays and not brought RBS. However its not a huge investment so we will see.

[Nevl]

i own some lloyds. I think im down something like 98%

I'm holding :)

Feel bad for Lloyds. They were semi forced into getting HBOS and thats the only thing that destroyed them. The Govt is sort of obligated to make sure they survive. Still not absolving management of all responsibilty. But it did make a safe bank become a dodgy bank.

[peat]

back to Gold....

you guys seen this
this guy always has in interesting take on things



In a world with multiple fiat moneys, the zero value of money equilibrium lurks for each of the fiat currencies, including gold. Admittedly, as regards gold, so far so good. Gold has positive value. It has had positive value for nigh-on 6000 years. That must make it the longest-lasting bubble in human history.


http://blogs.ft.com/maverecon/2009/11/gold-a-six-thousand-year-old-bubble/

[airedale]

yes, peat, he logically discusses gold and paper money, and he finishes by saying" I wouldn't argue with a 6,000 year bubble". Some of the posts following the blog are also interesting.

[Nevl]

OK It seems that everyone is buying gold! Is that a signal to sell?

Maybe my previous post on the uselessness and waste of mining gold got a larger audience than i thought.

[JBmurc]

OK It seems that everyone is buying gold! Is that a signal to sell?

Maybe my previous post on the uselessness and waste of mining gold got a larger audience than i thought.

Not everyones buying gold the IMF is selling the U.K- U.S.A aren't buying have sold in the past ,the countrys that have too much fiat paper savings an small gold holdings are the main buyers
We small investors are just in for the ride,IMHO silver's going blow the doors off gold in terms of percent return my personal Silver bullion holdings are round 30% up in NZD's value just over a year holding-I'm pretty sure the 1yr NZD gold price hasn't moved much in that time...............

[Nevl]

Not everyones buying gold the IMF is selling the U.K- U.S.A aren't buying have sold in the past ,the countrys that have too much fiat paper savings an small gold holdings are the main buyers
We small investors are just in for the ride,IMHO silver's going blow the doors off gold in terms of percent return my personal Silver bullion holdings are round 30% up in NZD's value just over a year holding-I'm pretty sure the 1yr NZD gold price hasn't moved much in that time...............

The question in my mind today is who is India going to sell its gold to for a profit? As you suggest the west and institutions are selling to India and China and the 3rd world. So who is going to buy from them. All they are doing is tieing up cash in a useless expensive to store asset. They can keep selling to each other but eventually someone will be caught holding the baby. India would have being better spending 6bill on improving roads and schools.

[Bilo]

The question in my mind today is who is India going to sell its gold to for a profit? As you suggest the west and institutions are selling to India and China and the 3rd world. So who is going to buy from them. All they are doing is tieing up cash in a useless expensive to store asset. They can keep selling to each other but eventually someone will be caught holding the baby. India would have being better spending 6bill on improving roads and schools.

Nevl somewhere in my archives there is a report on gold useage. India has a huge gold processing industry, jewlery and stuff.

[CAM]

my personal Silver bullion holdings are round 30% up in NZD's value just over a year holding-I'm pretty sure the 1yr NZD gold price hasn't moved much in that time...............

http://charts.infomine.com/multivariantcharts/showchart.aspx?mv=1&f=f&r=1y&c=cgold.xnzd.uoz

[Nevl]

Nevl somewhere in my archives there is a report on gold useage. India has a huge gold processing industry, jewlery and stuff.

Yep just checking on the interent. It seems that about 80% of gold consumption is for Jewelery. But a lot of that Jewelery is just another way of storing gold as anyone who has being to the middle east has seen in the gold markets. The gold is processed and then buried or put into a jewerly box or kept in another bank vault

[Dr_Who]

Unlike us, the Indians and Chinese buy 22-24 carat gold jewellery as a stored value and for security as an insurance. So if you wanna rob a house, and Indian house is my first pick. :p

[JBmurc]

Yep just checking on the interent. It seems that about 80% of gold consumption is for Jewelery. But a lot of that Jewelery is just another way of storing gold as anyone who has being to the middle east has seen in the gold markets. The gold is processed and then buried or put into a jewerly box or kept in another bank vault

I know even mid-class Indian parents buy their daughters 10-15kilo of gold each which the daughters then pass on to their daughters which they pass-on an when a grandmother dies her gold is then passed on to family

unlike western cutures which would buy their daughters a car or cash etc

[Nevl]

I know even mid-class Indian parents buy their daughters 10-15kilo of gold each which the daughters then pass on to their daughters which they pass-on an when a grandmother dies her gold is then passed on to family

unlike western cutures which would buy their daughters a car or cash etc

Saving for a rainy day is no good if you don't recognise thats it wet. But yeah it seems as silly as Kiwi's payibg a fortune for second houses at the beach which they use for 3 weeks a year.

[Aussie]

OK It seems that everyone is buying gold! Is that a signal to sell?

Maybe my previous post on the uselessness and waste of mining gold got a larger audience than i thought.

No-one's really buying gold yet. Even though gold is making some headlines, the general public is largely unaware of gold still . . . so this bull market still has a long way to go. Once the public decides to enter it will be too late, there won't be any that's for sale that they can afford - may 5g bars. Silver will be the go to alternative.

[JBmurc]

Silver Stock Report
by Jason Hommel, November 19th, 2009
The best witty observation this week came from Bill Murphy with www.gata.org. Bill noted the irony of how media pundits who bash gold will argue that gold is in a bubble (gold's expensive) in one breath, and then bash it again by saying it's a bad investment because gold has underperformed (gold's cheap) inflation rates since 1980's peak. Murphy's main point is, "how can an asset be in a bubble if it's underperforming inflation?" Or, as I'll put it, how can gold be cheap and expensive at the same time?

If the gold naysayers had the capacity to utilize at least three sets of neurons in their brains simultaneously and engage in rational logical thoughts, they might perceive the contradictory nature of their two arguments, and recognize that at least one of their assumptions might not be true. In other words, gold can not be in a bubble now.

Therefore, gold must be cheap, which is why it's good to buy as an investment, since investors should want to buy cheap things that have underperformed inflation, which then, later, after buying it, it should then outperform inflation, as gold has been doing quite easily since 2001.

It's also dizzying to hear other gold bashers claim that "There is no inflation, and thus no reason to own gold." What?

Well, that's fantastic to hear, because that must mean that all of gold's recent gains from $250/oz. back in 2001, to $1145/oz. today, must be all pure profit, showing that gold's recent 8 year performance is clearly outperforming inflation.

So that brings me to my main point that I've been asking for years.

Why are people happy earning 1% or less in their bonds, when gold has been going up so much for the last 8 years?

How much has gold gone up, on average, per year?

My favorite online compound interest rate calculator does the math.

http://www.smartmoney.com/compoundcalc/

From a $250 initial investment to a $1145 final amount, over 8 years, gold provided a 21% per year average rate of return.

So, which is better, 1-4% in bonds or 21% in gold per year?

You only need half of one synapse firing in your brain to recognize the clear answer to that question.

In case you were not paying attention, 21% per year in gold is better.

If you don't own gold (or something better like silver) by now, after 8 years, you have not been paying attention. So, if that includes you, then pay attention to the following.

I'm shocked to hear people think that higher interest rates will slow down this gold bull market. Do they think that interest rates will exceed 21% anytime soon?

Wouldn't 21% interest rates bankrupt many public companies who would not be able to refinance their debt, and thus destroy stock values, driving many to zero?

Wouldn't such rates crush the housing market, as nobody would be able to afford a 30-year loan at 25% interest?

And wouldn't the transition to such high rates destroy the bond market, as bond values move inversely to interest rates?

Wouldn't 21% interest rates cause the national debt to increase so fast that they would have to print money to pay the interest which would further destroy the currency at those rates if not higher?

And if stocks, housing, and bond values and the currency are all cratering to zero, wouldn't the only place left to put one's assets be gold and silver?

Gold will thus be in a bull market until AFTER interest rates exceed 21% again.

I think it would be wise to assume gold prices will continue to increase at much higher rates going forward, because the gold price has been manipulated lower during this recent time frame, through central bank sales and leases, and the sales of many fraudulent paper gold products (such as "gold pool accounts," allocated and unallocated accounts, certificates, and futures and options) which divert investment demand away from the real thing. But when the manipulation ends, through recognized defaults, the gold price will go much higher, much faster.

Why is gold doing so well? It's rare. It's not created as easily as money on a printing press.

[Laxmi]

What is curious is that none of the respected agencies and mainstream commentators predicted this recent dramatic rise. The facts are: Gold is closing in on $1200 per ounce. This is a price so far outside of official estimates that it suggests that official estimates may be nothing more than wishful thinking. In this case, they are out by at least 2 years.

[blackcap]

Im still not convinced on the gold story. After all what is it really when one gets down to it.... yes a metal, but what is it used for and why is it so important.... what can you make from gold.....

[JBmurc]

Im still not convinced on the gold story. After all what is it really when one gets down to it.... yes a metal, but what is it used for and why is it so important.... what can you make from gold.....

hard currency always has been an aways will(unless you can convinice the eastern worth paper is,like what the western has be doing for the last 36yrs) personal I think silvers a far better investment because it's both a bullion an a high demand industrial metal

[Laxmi]

The US dollar is going to come under increasing pressure until the US economy starts to show definite signs of improvement. This may take some time. Meanwhile, the value of the US dollar is now a leading indicator on the price of a large range of commodities including oil and gold. (never more acutely)

Up to now, the US dollar has reigned supreme in that any movement in its value has an opposite impact on commodity prices. In recent weeks, this correlation has been broken for gold. More and more investors are seeing the need to have gold in their portfolios as a hedge against inflation and possible devaluation of filial currencies. You know something is up when the Indian government buys ½ the amount of gold for sale from the IMF. The IMF in turn is only selling because the agency urgently needs more transferable funds. Funds to bail out countries like Iceland, Pakistan, Ukraine, It would appear that ‘Indian’ type investor sentiment is growing especially in Asian countries such as China. It is greatly encouraged by the value of gold increasing 20% in recent months.

[Aussie]

Im still not convinced on the gold story. After all what is it really when one gets down to it.... yes a metal, but what is it used for and why is it so important.... what can you make from gold.....

Respectfully, you should study the history of money and what it actually is. It's not little pieces of plastic. Then get some understanding of the balance sheets of most of the governments of the western world and the political policies they are pursuing.

India just bought 200 tonnes (of their 400) from the IMF at $1,045 oz and will buy the remaining amount if given the opportunity. After a decade of selling, CB's are now net buyers of gold and will be for some time to come.

I have more gold reserves than the RBNZ. The RBNZ has NO gold on it's balance sheet. None! The NZD is backed by the reserve value of the government paper issued by other western nations (most notably the long-term bonds issued by the USA) and it's ability to continue taxing us at ever increasing levels. That should give you a clue about the possible future of the Kiwi if things go south in a big way.

The NZD is "money" only because the NZ government says so and will prosecute you if you try and use anything else for the payment of good and services.

From Bill Buckler at The Privateer . . .

"Up until August 15, 1971, there has never in history been an era when no paper currency was linked to Gold. The history of money is replete with instances of coin clipping, printing, debt defaults, and the other attendant ills of currency debasement. In all other eras of history, people could always escape to other currencies, whose Gold backing remained intact. But since 1971, there is NO escape because NO paper currency has any link to Gold.

All of the economic, monetary, and financial upheaval since 1971 is a direct result of this fact.

The global paper currency system is very young. It depends for its continued functioning on the BELIEF that the debt upon which it is based will, someday, be repaid. The one thing, above all others, that could shake that faith, and therefore the foundations of the modern financial system itself, is a rise (especially a sharp rise) in the U.S. Dollar price of Gold."

In the next few years, Ben Bernanke may go down in history as the greatest "coin clipper" in history.

Cheers :D

[blackcap]

Aussie,

Im not saying "money" in paper form is any better.... but as a medium of exchage when it gets nasty and dirty, I can see more um valuable mediums of exchange. What can gold be used for in manufacturing, production and or keeping one alive? That said I could be far off the mark here and maybe Gold is not just a luxury good?

[Aussie]

Aussie,

Im not saying "money" in paper form is any better.... but as a medium of exchage when it gets nasty and dirty, I can see more um valuable mediums of exchange. What can gold be used for in manufacturing, production and or keeping one alive? That said I could be far off the mark here and maybe Gold is not just a luxury good?

As Alan Greenspan once said, "Gold is money par excellence . . ."

Fiat money (money by decree) is simply a form of government debt that is traded between people on a daily basis. It doesn't have any backing, it does not have a use or become a complete a transaction until you exchange it for something else that is desirable or tangible. Holding cash in a bank account is simply storing short-term purchasing power and only has value as long as people have confidence in it. The volatility in FX markets highlight this perfectly. And the world is full of countries who's people have been made poor by currency collapses.

Gold and silver on the other hand have held their value across time. They have intrinsic worth due to their rarity, the effort, investment and the cost that has gone into finding it, permitting, building a mine, mining it refining it and retailing. You cannot create gold and silver with a few strokes on a keyboard.

As a ready, portable and easily divisible medium of exchange, generally speaking - only gold and silver are complete. If I buy a property and pay for it in gold, the seller has truly received payment in full - there are no contingencies related to that payment. If he receives paper money or digits in a computer the ultimate value is contingent on the continuing solvency of the government or bank that issues that money. If he does not exchange that money for another house or other goods, the transaction is not really complete, he is just holding potential buying power. A lot of banks and other institutions recently learned this lesson that hard way. They "thought" they held dollar assets - but suddenly found they didn't have any future value.

[TTrader]

The United States Mint has suspended sales of their popular one ounce American Gold Eagle and one ounce American Silver Eagle bullion coins. The suspension was announced in a memo sent to the US Mint's authorized bullion purchasers.

"The United States Mint has depleted its current inventory
of 2009 American Eagle 1-ounce gold bullion coins due to the
continued strong demand for this product," the Mint told its
authorized dealers in a memorandum on Wednesday.

November sales to date were at 124,000 ounces, higher than
the 115,500 ounces sold in each month of September and October,
the Mint said.

The Mint said it expects to resume sales in early
December.

[Laxmi]

A reoccuring pattern is occurring. When the market becomes rattled by rumours of serious debt default such as was recently announced by Dubai; there is a rush to buy US dollars.

This pattern can be explained by simply stating that this is normal since the US dollar is the worlds reserve currency when it comes to filial currencies. It is nothing more than a temporary flight to safety.

I guess the question that is remaining is for how much longer? 80 billion dollars at stake for Dubai is chicken feed compared to what has happened recently in companies such as Lehman Bros, Bank of America and AIG.

The US financial system would be bankrupt a long time ago if it were not for something called 'quantitative easing' A time of reckoning is approaching and you can guarantee that the US government will not let its economy fail.

In my opinion this can mean only one thing. The risk of inflation at some time in the future is huge.



Gold price closes in on $1,200
http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/markets/article.html?in_article_id=494929&in_page_id=3

[ScrappyO]

Wow look at gold..what a dive $1138.

http://www.kitco.com/charts/livegold.html

[Laxmi]

Yep risk aversion does strange things. all in a less than an hour!

It is hardly a surprise. The Dubai World project was ever going to make it through the financial crisis unscathed. Property values in Dubai have reduced by upwards of 50% from peak. Some properties are now virtually worthless, certainly any vacant titles are. A time bomb waiting to happen for the financial markets.

Certainly, Dubai World is hardly the place to invest if you are risk averse to the threats posed by climate change. Perhaps this is the real reason why the project is in so much trouble. It is like having a lease that only lasts for a certain time. In the beginning it is 100 years. Then the time is reduced as each year passes. I imagine the lease has already been reduced by ½ by official estimates.

Quite clearly a bailout is required, similar to what happened in the US, yet Dubai is not the US. Who is going to be stupid enough to lend it any more money?

[JBmurc]

Wow look at gold..what a dive $1138.

http://www.kitco.com/charts/livegold.html

back to 1177 in no time onwards an upwards 1200 soon 1500 next year 2000 the following

[Dr_Who]

China 2009 Gold Demand, Output May Gain to Records

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aGTpy09MFMds&pos=4

[Dr_Who]

Anyone heard the rumour that alot of the gold in Fort Knox is Tungsten and not real gold?

[JBmurc]

Anyone heard the rumour that alot of the gold in Fort Knox is Tungsten and not real gold?

Yep wouldn't be surprised unlike china who wants it's people to by gold an silver the powers behind Bush Obama want their people to buy dept bonds,an live in fantasy spending land an take on more dept -the yanks sold most of the Fort knox in the Vietnam days is a main reason that they dropped the gold standard an replaced it with fiat paper an the fix everthing printing press

[Dr_Who]

I read somewhere (cant remember), that the IMF gold delivered to India was found to be Tungsten gold plated and not gold. The question now is, how much gold in the vault is Tungsten, cos Fort Knox are not audited. This is scary stuff.

This could be the biggest conspiracy known to mankind by the central bank.

[rev]

There was mention of this a few weeks ago on topstocks.

http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1258049769.php gives one version of the story.

[airedale]

Indian gold merchants/traders/govt.buyers are constantly assaying and buying gold. Are the Indians likely to have been swindled?
I think that is unlikely. But it is a good conspiracy theory.

[Aussie]

From what I have heard, it's most unlikely that LBMA bars are compromised. The system relies on exact records and accounting of all bars within the system of LBMA bullion banks - their serial numbers, exact condition and whereabouts are known at all times. They simply have too much at stake to take risks . . . large bars other than LBMA - hard to say . . .

[Steve]

Where do you see gold going in 2010? Declining as the economic recovery kicks in? The article also notes that some producers have got away with high production costs with the price soaring which may come back to bite them should the price drop...

Analysts divided on gold (http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=10617740)
Gold shone brightly in 2009, but analysts are divided on whether 2010 could see some of the gloss fade.

[airedale]

With the Fed and the BOE still printing paper I don't think that there is much downside to the POG. But whether it will soar to the giddy heights forecast by the most fervent gold believers...maybe this year,maybe next year.:rolleyes:

[arco]

.

Chart is presently bearish to 2 degrees

A move towards the green box area is a possibility if the price action breaks through the Kumo and tests for S=R.


http://i50.tinypic.com/dzi079.gif

[JBmurc]

I personal think we'll see another major country buy up large amount of real Gold bullion if the USD gold price falls much more -China the most likely to buy any thats for sale from the likes of the IMF

[arco]

.
Lets look again in June/July 2010 and review the position

[Dr_Who]

There are rumours that the US debt auctions are just a ponzi scheme. The US print money to buy their own debt auction. A ponzi waiting to fall over. If this is true, then gold price have more room to go much higher.

One must wonder why the Indians and the Chinese continue to buy huge amounts of gold even at these record high level prices. They are not stupid. Everytime anyone with large quantity to sell, they will take all of it.

[Aussie]

There are rumors that the US debt auctions are just a ponzi scheme. The US print money to buy their own debt auction. A ponzi waiting to fall over. If this is true, then gold price have more room to go much higher.

One must wonder why the Indians and the Chinese continue to buy huge amounts of gold even at these record high level prices. They are not stupid. Everytime anyone with large quantity to sell, they will take all of it.

Bingo!!!!!

[Edwood]

this mid-1070's level needs to hold, plenty of white space below (possible levels shown). 5yr view its looking uncomfortably like a 3 peaks domed house, not a happy picture for the gold bulls.... (I have no position btw, just looking for a trade)

http://i45.tinypic.com/2qltt6u.jpg

[arco]

Dont write gold off just yet its just in a resting phase. (Mentioned earlier in the thread)

three peaks and a domed house (http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_05/images/wood061806a.gif)

[Edwood]

yep hear you Arco, trend is strong and you'd have to think it will be OK if the 1070's can hold, but if not then 1020's look feasible

assuming 1070's hold, here's the likely path - a play up to the median line will be worth a look

http://tinypic.com/r/2v8k3v9/6

[Edwood]

failed on the initial pitchfork & ran lower, with updated pivots we're now at the median line - may get some reaction here before regrouping and heading higher. or we could just punch on through. Favouring a reaction myself....

http://i49.tinypic.com/23lim1c.jpg

[arco]

We had a good run on the blog with this predicted higher move

(BTW - commodity posts are free to all on the blog).

http://i48.tinypic.com/2czrrww.gif

[Edwood]

hi arco - cheers for that, supports my bias towards a short around this area. my main reservation is that daily oscillators suggest we could easily kick on higher

[Silverlight]

Went short at 1116, put a stop in at 1130 just above the first Kumo line, after looking at the blog. Have moved down to 1100 now so sitting on a small profit.


My Ichi Moku charts seem to come out a tad differently to yours Arco, I am using the stock standard, have you modified your times at all?


Also this is for metals trading, what is the standard trailing stop you place for gold/silver? $10/20 per ounce?


cheers

[arco]

Went short at 1116, put a stop in at 1130 just above the first Kumo line, after looking at the blog. Have moved down to 1100 now so sitting on a small profit.


My Ichi Moku charts seem to come out a tad differently to yours Arco, I am using the stock standard, have you modified your times at all?


Also this is for metals trading, what is the standard trailing stop you place for gold/silver? $10/20 per ounce?


cheers

Hi Silverlight

I use default settings on MT4 - 9 26 52

My stops might not be everybodies cup of tea - I actually like to keep stops well out of the way and sometimes behind a swing point. But its also necessary to calculate risk/reward. If things get moving you can then use a KS trailing stop

Arco

[CAM]

the International Monetary Fund is planning on selling around 190 tonnes of gold .... probably a race between the Chinese and Indians as to who gets it!

[JBmurc]

the International Monetary Fund is planning on selling around 190 tonnes of gold .... probably a race between the Chinese and Indians as to who gets it!

I read that china wanted to only pay $1000oz guess they don't want to lose face an pay more that what India did still if India or so other buyer comes out -China will really lose face as IMF are really the only ones with gold stupid enough to sell it for USD which even day become more worthless once they have 0 gold holding IMF will lose any standing of value IMHO

[JBmurc]

fake gold bars in germany whats the bet there's a huge amount of fake gold out there

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZKczs-7BFRI

[JBmurc]

$15000 gold !

-http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4McaQIeWtas

[Nevl]

$15000 gold !

-http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4McaQIeWtas

Hope you are not expecting the Chinese to buy your gold

"Dollar rebounded strongly in European session as Gold was hit to as low as 1115 following comments from China. Yi Gang, director of China's State Administration of Foreign Exchange said that whole gold is "not a bad asset", the ability to have more investment in gold is limited by "a few factors". Yi said that return on gold in the past 30 years hasn't been great. Also, gold will unlikely be a primary investment for China's reserves. Gold extended the fall from last week's high of 1145.8 and dipped to as low as 1115.3 so far. Meanwhile, dollar index was given a boost to 80.80."

[JBmurc]

Hope you are not expecting the Chinese to buy your gold

"Dollar rebounded strongly in European session as Gold was hit to as low as 1115 following comments from China. Yi Gang, director of China's State Administration of Foreign Exchange said that whole gold is "not a bad asset", the ability to have more investment in gold is limited by "a few factors". Yi said that return on gold in the past 30 years hasn't been great. Also, gold will unlikely be a primary investment for China's reserves. Gold extended the fall from last week's high of 1145.8 and dipped to as low as 1115.3 so far. Meanwhile, dollar index was given a boost to 80.80."

-a recent piece from jim sinclair website-
-Let’s state the obvious here – the Chinese NEVER announce their intentions beforehand. Do the investors/traders in this nation believe that they are stupid? Anyone who follows the soybean market can attest to this. As we mentioned last time a story appeared announcing China’s intention to buy the remainder of the IMF gold sale; such a thing would be very uncharacteristic for them. After all, we are not dealing with a Gordon Brown here (the Prime Minister of England who at the time he headed the Treasury there announced beforehand his intention to sell England’s horde of gold thereby guaranteeing that the citizens of his nation would receive the lowest possible price). Rest assured that China has no intention of saying the least thing positive about gold purchases knowing full well that they will create a stampede of buying into the market which would guarantee them the worst possible purchase price

[Nevl]

-a recent piece from jim sinclair website-
-Let’s state the obvious here – the Chinese NEVER announce their intentions beforehand. Do the investors/traders in this nation believe that they are stupid? Anyone who follows the soybean market can attest to this. As we mentioned last time a story appeared announcing China’s intention to buy the remainder of the IMF gold sale; such a thing would be very uncharacteristic for them. After all, we are not dealing with a Gordon Brown here (the Prime Minister of England who at the time he headed the Treasury there announced beforehand his intention to sell England’s horde of gold thereby guaranteeing that the citizens of his nation would receive the lowest possible price). Rest assured that China has no intention of saying the least thing positive about gold purchases knowing full well that they will create a stampede of buying into the market which would guarantee them the worst possible purchase price

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/china-not-too-keen-on-gold-says-forex-chief-2010-03-09

They are not buying they are just producing their own. Seems a waste really. Could leave it in the ground then they wouldn't have to dig it up but they would still own it.

NZ could do the same with its reserves. Just leave it there and just sell the ownership certificates. They never use the stuff anyway.

[JBmurc]

yeah Nevl gold's main use is for jewelry an in the past 5000yr it was used in trade ,money etc an that is why 90%+ of all gold ever produced is still here in above ground stockpiles
unlike silver which the world has used 95% of all that has been mined has been used up

[Nevl]

yeah Nevl gold's main use is for jewelry an in the past 5000yr it was used in trade ,money etc an that is why 90%+ of all gold ever produced is still here in above ground stockpiles
unlike silver which the world has used 95% of all that has been mined has been used up

the town of Ross in the South Island is sited on Land with approx 1mill ons of gold. What the Govt could do is write certificates for half of that, these certs would undertake to produce the gold at no cost to the owner of the certs on demand.

Lets say you brought 10 ozs then your cert backed by the NZ would give you ownership over 10ozs of gold in Ross. If there was ever a need to get that gold physically the govt would be under obligation to either dig up Ross township or provide 10ozs of gold from another source. Either way the holder would have ownership of gold and as with 90% of gold owners never see or worry about actually touching the gold it makes no difference if the gold is sitting under Ross township or in Fed Reserve Bank in NYC. And the gold in Ross is a lot harder to steal.

This way we could use the value that the gold is worth without the costs of digging it up and storing it which is just value destroying in the long run.

[JBmurc]

sounds good to me Nevl but would people put much faith in the govt

[Nevl]

sounds good to me Nevl but would people put much faith in the govt

No different to a Govt bond cept we don't have to pay interest and have the obligation to dig up the gold one day. Also people seem to have confidence in the Kiwi $

[peat]

Just leave it there and just sell the ownership certificates.

Quite frankly thats a ridiculous idea. Although I may be overestimating peoples intelligence I dont think you'd get too many takers on that one

It doesnt take into account the primary reason why people buy gold and accept it as a store of wealth

People believe that in a time of systemic financial system breakdown (when all fiat currencies effectively become worthless ) that their gold or silver may still be able to get them goods and services...

I dont think those certificates would work too well in that scenario as they are just another fiat currency.... backed by the same people who (at that stage) will have failed you in the previous one.

[JBmurc]

well peat I think you find in both gold an silver case many people own an trade paper precious metals it actually makes up 95% of all silver traded daily is paper with no-doubt no backing of real silver tis the reason why real silver isn't worth $50oz+ atm when Goldman's an the likes can short sell millions of oz with free paper money from there mates at the FED
but the paper system won't last for ever- It's shown signs of collaspe esp .USD

personal I'd rather hold the real thing...

[Nevl]

Quite frankly thats a ridiculous idea. Although I may be overestimating peoples intelligence I dont think you'd get too many takers on that one

It doesnt take into account the primary reason why people buy gold and accept it as a store of wealth

People believe that in a time of systemic financial system breakdown (when all fiat currencies effectively become worthless ) that their gold or silver may still be able to get them goods and services...

I dont think those certificates would work too well in that scenario as they are just another fiat currency.... backed by the same people who (at that stage) will have failed you in the previous one.

actually its exactly how the system works at the moment but if you wanted the gold. Instead of going to the NYC fed reserve and then filling out forms and showing your certificate and then hiring bodyguards and security guards to carry the gold. The NZ govt would undertake to dig the gold up and mine it and deliver it if you ever needed it, and in the world that you are thinking of where the modern economy has collapsed then there is no way i would swap my food or shelter for a bunch of yellow bars no matter how pretty. Sorry in that world food and Iron and weapons would be the most valuable commodities. Not gold.

[fwu005]

Hi,
I'm new to this. How to invest in gold ?
What is the good gold list companies in NZ and Australia ?

cheers

[winner69]

Have a look at LGL Lihir Gold

Probably one of the 'cheapest' producers on the ASX / well positioned to do even better if the price of gold jumps again / and big enough that if Newcrest want to get more gold reserves to balance their overweight copper position Lihir would be the target

[shasta]

Hi,
I'm new to this. How to invest in gold ?
What is the good gold list companies in NZ and Australia ?

cheers

AGG have 5m/oz gold production (+ some uranium to boot)

[JBmurc]

well if your after bigger gains but with little more risk buying gold jnrs like -CVX,NAV,IAU reason being the costs to find decent discoverys an time frame to get into production means most majors like NCM,NEM,LGL etc are far better taking over jnrs than exploring new areas an as GOLD price moves futher north so will the value of gold discoverys

[shasta]

JBMurc

You still holding TRY, have looked into them a bit more & like there no nonsense style of getting on with it

[JBmurc]

yeah still have a indirect holding sold my direct holding at- 2.19 - to invest more into CFE NAV mainly for a short term trade play both should head higher
Do plan to buy back into TRY again before they start producing in S.A just didn't see their SP moving much in the next couple months with the loss for the halfyear not helping buying strength

late 2010 TRY will be north of $3 IMHO

IMHO it's only a matter of months till Gold silver breakout north

Jason Hommel writes:

"The CFTC is the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, and their job is to regulate futures contracts, to prevent fraud. But they protect and encourage fraud! How? They place position limits on the longs (and there should never be limits on what you can buy in a free market), but they refuse to place and enforce position limits on the shorts (who fraudulently sell what they do not have). If anything, to prevent fraud, they should limit the shorts, and not limit the longs.

Also, it is well known that JP Morgan is a major precious metals short, but the CFTC does nothing.
http://www.caseyresearch.com/displayGsd.php?id=106

http://www.investmentrarities.com/ted_butler_comentary02-16-10.shtml

Here are a few links of importance.

This shows that the notional value of JP Morgan's derivatives exceed $72 trillion.

http://www.occ.treas.gov/ftp/release/2009-161a.pdf"

From a hard hitting article by Jason Hommel relevant to both gold and silver at http://silverstockreport.com/2010/cftc-meeting.html

[beacon]

Quite frankly thats a ridiculous idea. Although I may be overestimating peoples intelligence I dont think you'd get too many takers on that one

It doesnt take into account the primary reason why people buy gold and accept it as a store of wealth

People believe that in a time of systemic financial system breakdown (when all fiat currencies effectively become worthless ) that their gold or silver may still be able to get them goods and services...

I dont think those certificates would work too well in that scenario as they are just another fiat currency.... backed by the same people who (at that stage) will have failed you in the previous one.

Second that Peat.

[winner69]

Have a look at LGL Lihir Gold

Probably one of the 'cheapest' producers on the ASX / well positioned to do even better if the price of gold jumps again / and big enough that if Newcrest want to get more gold reserves to balance their overweight copper position Lihir would be the target

Posted that 2 weeks ago

Hey it all came true ...... LGL up 30% odd today on Newcrest bid

[fwu005]

well if your after bigger gains but with little more risk buying gold jnrs like -CVX,NAV,IAU reason being the costs to find decent discoverys an time frame to get into production means most majors like NCM,NEM,LGL etc are far better taking over jnrs than exploring new areas an as GOLD price moves futher north so will the value of gold discoverys

Thanks recommendations from JBmurc and Winner69. I bought a little LGL and some NAV, are both on very good gain. is it ok still holding them ?

[JBmurc]

no harm on taking some profits on LGL----- NAV's looking real good I'd hold CVX a outside with mid term growth good buying sub 10c

[Dr_Who]

Welldone guys. Just FYI Macbank have upgraded LGL to $4.50.

disc: not a holder

[Nevl]

Well personal I acutally do hold 45kilos of silver bullion as I do believe Silver will outperform gold by quite the margin..

But yeah say as of tonight 1oz NZ gold price close up against 1000 Lloyds an RBS shares in their NZD currency value on their close...mmmm hope you don't invest all your money into UK banks might end up having to make your own fireworks in 2014

Ok a 6 month stock take on my bank shares. I am up about 60%

Hows your gold looking?

4.5 years to go.

[JBmurc]

Ok a 6 month stock take on my bank shares. I am up about 60%

Hows your gold looking?

4.5 years to go.

If I was you I'd be selling 60% is a nice profit just alittle behind my NAV investment
GOLD has yet to really shine If you view the 10yr GOLD chart on the asx.gold thread your see what I mean GOLD is trending up as long as Central Banks create trillions n trillions of new Tenders of exhange----

[Nevl]

If I was you I'd be selling 60% is a nice profit just alittle behind my NAV investment
GOLD has yet to really shine If you view the 10yr GOLD chart on the asx.gold thread your see what I mean GOLD is trending up as long as Central Banks create trillions n trillions of new Tenders of exhange----

Yeah long way to run but I thought I would get in a little gloat while I can. Could be a case of speaking too soon.

RBS is looking better than I thought and the Lloyds rights issue helped a lot. Still if RBS goes back to the same level of profits or close to of pre crisis levels then there is another 100% to be made. RBS is worth about $30bill at the moment and can easily make $8bill per year. I think it will survive and do well.

[JBmurc]

SA gold sector at a tipping point
Brendan Ryan | Wed, 21 Apr 2010 11:02
[miningmx.com] -- THE declining South African gold industry is fast approaching a tipping point where further restructuring will be needed resulting in the loss of many more thousands of jobs.
Thats the view of Gold Fields CEO Nick Holland who, in a wide ranging interview with Miningmx, said that a solution is needed this calendar year.
Holland added, 2010 is crunch time for the industry. We need to do something within the next three months to start moving to a different strategy otherwise its not going to be good for anybody.
Holland was speaking against the background of a string of problems that have hamstrung the SA gold mines over the past 18 months - in particular the strength of the rand against the US dollar.
This has put a cap on the revenues being earned by the SA gold mines despite the rising dollar price of gold while the industrys costs have been rising inexorably.
The current rand gold price of around R270,000/kg is nearly 20% lower than the level of R330,000/kg reached early in 2009 when the dollar gold price was around $920/oz compared with the current $1,140/oz.
Harmony this week announced it was closing another three marginal shafts bringing the total number of shafts shut down by the group in the past year to seven.
Holland commented, absent a significant increase in productivity then, unless we see a major change in the rand gold price, some kind of rationalisation of the industry looks more and more probable.
He added, thousands of jobs are at risk because the gold industry is top heavy given the current level of production. We have to claw back some productivity or the inevitable is going to happen and we will be forced into a downscaling exercise.
I dont want to put those people on the street. I want to preserve jobs. I am trying to find a win-win situation with government and organised labour but we are running out of time.
Looking on the positive side Holland said he believed a realistic solution could be found. An increase in gold production of just 10% from current levels would be sufficient to create sustainability.
Holland commented, we have a very high level of fixed costs in this business and the problem is that we are not working the orebodies hard enough.
Another 10% in gold production would make a phenomenal difference to the bottom-line.
Holland singled out the number of working shifts being lost for a variety of reasons over and above normal holiday periods as the key issue.
He said, we have to mine at a rate which allows us to recover our costs and make a return but we lost around 8% of our total shifts last year.
We are not getting enough blasts at the mining faces. The production of ore from the mines is not enough to support the on-going cost structure of the industry.
Hollands proposed solution is a six-day working week with every second Saturday being a compulsory working shift.
He commented, that would add an extra month to our working operations. That would make the difference between having sustainable operations and being forced into a downscaling exercise.
Holland said Gold Fields was in the process of debating the proposed six day week with the unions but had not yet come to terms with them.
He said, my approach is that - if not the six day week then what? I am open to ideas but we can only find a solution through a constructive approach by labour, ourselves and government.
Asked about the recent mining summit Holland commented, the main focus was on transformation of the industry and I dont have a problem with that.
Its important that the SA mining industry reflects the demographics of our society and I have bought into that.
Overall, I can see what the Department of Mineral Resources is trying to achieve and I really believe we have to transform.
We have made considerable progress over the past five years although it has not been as rapid as we would like. It has not been easy because the pool of talent in the country is very small.
We have to train more people ourselves which is why Gold Fields is investing R26m in the mining engineering faculties at the University of the Witwatersrand and the University of Johannesburg.

[JBmurc]

Gold Most Likely to Double: Puru Saxena

23 April 2010, 04:37 p.m. EST
By John Dourekas
Of Kitco News



Hong Kong (Kitco News) -- Gold will most likely double from its current $1150 an ounce during the course of the bull market, according to Puru Saxena, founder of Puru Saxena Wealth Management.

In an exclusive interview with Kitco News, Saxena said one major factor in gold’s favor "is that central banks have now become net buyers of gold. So that reduces supply from the market,” said Saxena.

Investment demand will appreciate over time as people become more dubious over currencies and they transfer assets into gold as a hedge, said the investment adviser from his Hong Kong office.

He thinks inflation will occur at an accelerated pace over the next few years. "Real interest rates are negative in most countries, so gold should continue to benefit purely as an anti-currency because people lost faith in the euro and the dollar," he said. "At some point people are going to say well, ‘we don’t want to lose purchasing power in currencies that are dubious, we want gold as an insurance.’”

Saxena is not so optimistic, however, for base metals, which he said are likely to struggle. “If you look at the inventory levels at the London Metals Exchange, the stockpiles are extremely elevated and inflated," he said. "So even though copper, lead and zinc have had a big run-up since last August, inventory levels have actually increased, so that leads us to believe it is speculation.”

As for the sudden rise of palladium, Saxena cautions against this metal for now. “Palladium has gone parabolic. Usually when you have a parabolic spike they are followed by a parabolic collapse," he said. "I think palladium will have a big correction and when it does, that will be the time to buy."

Currently, Saxena said he is fully invested in his preferred companies. “We think the bull market will run for another couple of years – in my view we will see a big boom again in all asset classes,” he said.

Saxena sees more opportunities in precious metals and energy. He said that he is invested 35% in energy and 15% in precious metals. On currencies he prefers the Canadian and Australian dollar, as well as the Singaporean Dollar, Chinese Yuan and the Indian rupee.

American Revival?

Saxena does not subscribe to the bearish view that has America on the wane. “The US is still the world’s largest economy,” he said. “Surely it is losing its dominance as countries in Asia climb-up the prosperity ladder but it will be a gradual transition. I don’t think the US is going to go down in flames. Ultimately the American consumer will come roaring back.”

He is, however, skeptical of the lack of clean-up of the financial system. Throughout the recession the total debt in America has continued to expand and this is the crux of the problem, he said. “You cannot solve a problem of over-leverage and excess debt by taking on more and more debt. You can’t put band-aids on the problem or you will eventually have a currency crisis,” said Saxena.

Saxena said that over time the consequences of this will be twofold: longer term interest rates will increase substantially over the next decade and the CPI, which he calls a “terribly flawed barometer of inflation” will double in seven to eight years. In turn, he said, the US dollar’s purchasing power will diminish against hard assets.

The US has three options for survival, said Saxena, “It can either accept a painful recession. They can default because it cannot pay back liabilities or the third option is monetary inflation. I suspect they will continue to debase the value of the dollar and print greenbacks.”

In the future, Saxena said that he predicts the financial industry will become more heavily regulated. “A bank should either operate as a commercial bank with no investment banking or if you go into investment banking the government should not bail you out." "If you make mistakes you should be penalized and the bond and shareholders lose everything.”

EU Debt Crisis

Saxena is not a big fan of Europe. “I think the IMF or European Union will bail out offenders but that is a band-aid on the problem and it will be a long-term negative effect for the euro," he said. "I think the euro is a terribly flawed currency because you have so many different nations with different objectives, requirements and problems all lumped into one basket.”

The problems with Western Europe are the same as in the US, said Saxena. “Too many excesses; too much credit; too much consumption and not enough savings.”

No End for Goldman

Saxena said Goldman Sachs has been made a scapegoat and will survive the tribulation. “The biggest offenders are Freddie Mac, Fannie Mae and the regulators themselves because all these shenanigans were occurring right under their noses," he said. "Regulators knew what was going on… So I think to come back at Goldman alone is a bit unfair –I think you have to go after everyone.” He said that in five years from now people will have forgotten about this ordeal.

China Correction

Property in certain cities in China are certainly overvalued, said Saxena. “If you look at Beijing and Shanghai the properties have become incredibly unaffordable -- it takes 20 years of income for the average household to buy a property,” he said.

A correction in China will occur when there is more monetary tightening, said Saxena. When this will happen? Saxena does not know. “One thing working in favor of Chinese assets is that China doesn’t allow the Chinese to invest overseas – so the money is all contained within the economy,” he said.

As for the purchase of the IMF’s 191.3 tonnes of gold, Saxena forecasts Asian Central Banks will purchase a significant amount. “Over time as these cash piles for China and India continue to get bigger and bigger with foreign exchange reserves, they will turn towards buying hard assets,” said Saxena. He does not think IMF gold sales are a big threat to the markets as they were four or five years ago.

Market Manipulation?

Regarding rumored gold market manipulation by the major banking powers, Saxena has some suspicions and would not be surprised if some paper selling was occurring to keep the gold price down.

“The central and private banks make their money by promoting the fiat money system –if the price of gold suddenly jumps fivefold, that is a red flag that there is something seriously wrong with the system," he said. "It would not be surprising for me to hear that they are suppressing the price of gold – we had the biggest financial crisis in decades and rather than increasing in value, the price of gold actually fell.”

Saxena said he has been following the work of GATA for a long time and "they make a reasonable case for that, but my argument is; what market is not manipulated? Everything is manipulated,” he added.

[ENP]

I don't think gold prices can go up much further. Governments are printing money but all the bad loans from banks is pretty much equal to the money being printed.

Gold has got out of hand and now everyones speculating instead of investing in it. People are scared and gold is for all the scared people.

[JBmurc]

I don't think gold prices can go up much further. Governments are printing money but all the bad loans from banks is pretty much equal to the money being printed.

Gold has got out of hand and now everyones speculating instead of investing in it. People are scared and gold is for all the scared people.

Gold an esp. Silver is for the smart people the scared are buying USD or putting money into the bank because their scared

Gold has so so much more to go before its in a bubble zone

[Aussie]

. . . gold is for all the scared people.

Yeah, Right!

[dumbass]

there was a nice long entry on gold last few days , looks like a triangle may have printed with heavy support area and a morning star candlestick pattern

double long position on , will see how price develops to determine target.

[Pumice]

This could go either way, I'm looking at a short position if it breaks below 1500 myself.
uptrend has lost momentum,.

[dumbass]

i cant quite put my finger on it but im a little sceptical about the strength of this move higher, no target and will bail when it turns lower.

triple bottoms have a slightly fragile look to them, its just too transparent where the stops will be, but profits are the name of the game.

[Valuegrowth]

Some of the biggest gold investors and gold reserve holders may sell gold to overcome current financial pressure from lower oil prices.

Big gold investors like Russian Central Bank may sell gold to save rouble

The biggest gold investors such as China and Russia may sell their gold reserves to overcome temporary financial difficulties.

DYOR.

[Daytr]

Same BS that's been circulating for months. For Russia gold has been one of their best investments.
China, what crisis?

[pak]

To me looks like gold is now forming a pennant on the daily chart. In which case another strong uptrend is increasingly likely in the coming weeks. Maybe its waiting for a trigger like another breakdown in oil prices. Been trading this short term lately both long and short with a lot of success but now waiting on some sort of comfirmation. Keen to hear other thoughts.

[Daytr]

Yep agree thought the same thing yesterday.

[SCHUMACHER]

All these global FED rate cuts certainly going to help gold and silver - GOLD up again overnight - spot gold up 1% of the back of the British pound rate cut lol - we will be at zero soon and paper money will be the casualty here

check out the book "prosper" by Chris Martenson - great read

The world resources are at their limits and we will struggle to grow because of these constraints
The world has 200 TRILLION debt
LIABILITIES AT 5 X THE DEBT

AND a world that will struggle to grow

next 20 years will be unprecedented and we cant look back at the past 20 years to see whats going to happen as we in uncharted territory now


Larger view we will see a great wealth transfer and its going to happen - it happened in Germany many years ago , more recently in Argentina and what happens is we have too many claims built up, its money and credit and theres not enough stuff and people call it great wealth destruction but its not , its transfer, its transferred from people who have too much paper wealth to people who own the real thing or have physical wealth

we now seeing stocks hitting all time highs and bonds hitting all time highs - this is a crazy situation that can only be made sense of when we look at what central banks have done to liquify and print money so people should be looking to real tangible wealth not paper wealth

HOLD
Realestate
Gold / Silver
Cash

[jonu]

What you are saying may occur Schumacher, but I think the theories behind it are wrong. Wealth transfer (and growth) recently has been to China. Next cabs off the rank India, Bangladesh. chunks of Africa. Technology leads to massive growth, in some cases using far less resources than before.

I agree that the world financial markets are a propped up mess, but the future will look after itself, probably by repeating what we have seen for millennia, not just the past 100 years. Empires come and go.

[ynot]

Chinese demand for Gold to drive price.

https://www.kitco.com/news/article/2024-03-22/massive-covert-gold-purchases-mean-china-now-controls-price-action

[Bjauck]

Chinese demand for Gold to drive price.

https://www.kitco.com/news/article/2024-03-22/massive-covert-gold-purchases-mean-china-now-controls-price-actionInteresting. Covert purchases of gold by China is the driving force behind recent price increases. Perhaps driven by a desire to reduce dependence on the USD as a Reserve currency.

[ynot]

Interesting. Covert purchases of gold by China is the driving force behind recent price increases. Perhaps driven by a desire to reduce dependence on the USD as a Reserve currency.

Has been the Chinese focus for a while now but with the recent internal Chinese strife, particularly real estate, they have to park their cash somewhere.
The big driver also being China wanting to weaken/break US reserve currency foothold.

[Bjauck]

Has been the Chinese focus for a while now but with the recent internal Chinese strife, particularly real estate, they have to park their cash somewhere.
The big driver also being China wanting to weaken/break US reserve currency foothold.
I guess it is always good to have a stockpile of gold during worsening geopolitical tensions.

[ynot]

I guess it is always good to have a stockpile of gold during worsening geopolitical tensions.

Based on what they are estimating, It appears like pboc are holding around $us378,000,000,000. in gold. That's above whatever the population is holding.

[wizAlvin]

gold indecision type candle at the highest ever price


silver indecision type candle

[Daytr]

gold indecision type candle at the highest ever price


silver indecision type candle

Reasonable correction with Mid / East tensions easing. I still think most of gold's gains are still to come, once the US eases rates.

[FTG]

A misconception held by many is that the POG always moves in the inverse direction to LT IR's. I wonder if this belief derives from another even greater misconception? The one in which folk believe that the POG only increases during inflationary periods, and decreases during deflationary periods.

When pulling back and looking at the longer term picture, charts clearly show that the POG often entirely invalidates the mainstream narrative. The following chart (courtesy of goldchartsrus) perfectly portrays the actuality.

15066

[Daytr]

Hi FTG, gold tends to rise whilst inflation is at the beginning. Once interest rates are raised to counter inflation, gold tends to lose ground due to the holding cost.

We have also been in a period of global tension that has added to gold's lustre.

Imo gold will move a lot higher once the US starts to lower interest rates.