ITC

[STRAT]

Were all traders I reckon Elyob ( well maybe with the exception being Snoopy :D ) Its just a matter of time frame. It almost appears with your thumbs down you are holding short term traders responsible for this flat lined stock.

I would be looking towards the floods and Eddies health for answers.

Anyone got any goss regarding those two issues?

Chart wise its not lookin too flash. There was some support I thought at 4.9c but it appears to have gone.

Bermuda,
If Eddie was to relinquish his role in the company, how would you see ITC progressing from there?

[STRAT]

ITC on the move a close above 4.9 would be great

[STRAT]

ITC on the move a close above 4.9 would be greatNo such luck. If you are in a hopital and the machine next to you has a line as flat as the ITC chart in the last two weeks I think it means youre dead :eek2:

Whod of thought it takes this long for a desert to dry out after a spot of rain eh?

[Ketel One]

Looks like everything (production and drilling) has been pushed back till September due to the flooding. Down is the only way this can go in the short term as people move money out to something with a chance of going up. When they resume in september, they're planning on drilling with two rigs simultaneously.

Good potential for a low risk entry some time between now and then!

[STRAT]

and it goes up10%.
Go figure

[Ketel One]

Heh yes, read that ann a bit quickly- didn't look past the first page. The results of the 3D are very promising. 21mbbls recoverable in 25 birkhead targets.

http://iforce.co.nz/i/eaaz55ia.jpg

[STRAT]

I didnt read it at all :scared:

[bermuda]

Heh yes, read that ann a bit quickly- didn't look past the first page. The results of the 3D are very promising. 21mbbls recoverable in 25 birkhead targets.

http://iforce.co.nz/i/eaaz55ia.jpg

Ketel,
This drilling program has more fizz than Wanaka Warbirds which I enjoyed immensely. Thanks for the bold graphics. VPE will have it's day in the sun after some very heavy rains. Keep onside. BG wants their gas and if they dont pay the price someone ( Asian ) will.

[airedale]

A good rise on good volume today.

[ELYOB]

Buy side very aggressive ; 15m shares t/o in first hour today ....... got to be corporate activity ...... doesn't seem to be anything to do with company people though .

[STRAT]

A clear break from the downtrend of the last 4 or 5 months with convincing volume yesterday. Then today ho hum.
My guess is someone wanted in large yesterday and drove the price up mainly due to shortage of sellers on offer.

Thoughts anyone?

[airedale]

I see that Thursday's action was due to two directors underwriting the recent fund raising. So if the directors are buying in at 5 cents, it is worth watching.

[STRAT]

I see that Thursday's action was due to two directors underwriting the recent fund raising. So if the directors are buying in at 5 cents, it is worth watching.Hi Airdale,
Its always a good sign but Eddie has been buying his own stock for years. He has a Kazzilion of em.

[bermuda]

Hi Airdale,
Its always a good sign but Eddie has been buying his own stock for years. He has a Kazzilion of em.

Hi Strat,
The 3D is pretty exciting. Better than expected.

[ELYOB]

I hear the 3D is that good , we have some sweet spots , no wonder the excitement . But then there is the bit for digging...

[bermuda]

Hi Airdale,
Its always a good sign but Eddie has been buying his own stock for years. He has a Kazzilion of em.

Strat ,
I heard last night that the recent buying was not that of ITC's Directors. Might find out more today at the O&G conference.

[STRAT]

Strat ,
I heard last night that the recent buying was not that of ITC's Directors. Might find out more today at the O&G conference.Hi Bermuda,
Thats exciting.
Thanks for keeping us posted. Will be very keen to know what you hear. Are you in Auz?

[STRAT]

Hi Bermuda,
Thats exciting.
Thanks for keeping us posted. Will be very keen to know what you hear.Especially as Im holding STX, VPE, WCL and ITC :lol:

[Paddie]

Strat ,
I heard last night that the recent buying was not that of ITC's Directors. Might find out more today at the O&G conference.

Volume on the up again after a pause in buying (good buying limiting upside).

Certainly seems to confirm that someone is taking a position.

Paddie

[STRAT]

Volume on the up again after a pause in buying (good buying limiting upside).

Certainly seems to confirm that someone is taking a position.

PaddieLookin ok today too. Things must be drying out in ITC land

[STRAT]

I AM having a good day :D

[trackers]

I AM having a good day :D

Very good indeed Strat, up 50% since middle of the month!

[STRAT]

Very good indeed Strat, up 50% since middle of the month!CUE going well too.

Hey look where ITC stopped today. Interesting eh?

[Paddie]

CUE going well too.

Hey look where ITC stopped today. Interesting eh?

We should find out in the next day or two who is taking a stake.

I am sure that Super B has a good idea and that is why he is not posting.

Let's hope for a good offer Strat.

Paddie

[STRAT]

We should find out in the next day or two who is taking a stake.

I am sure that Super B has a good idea and that is why he is not posting.

Let's hope for a good offer Strat.

PaddieHi Paddie
I actually hadnt considered that. Not this early at least but it was one of the reasons I picked it for the 2010 comp. I was hoping for more SP appreciation before a sell out. I would think with all the shares Eddie has and the recent major health issues hes been through they may get to pay less that you and I would like. Hope Im wrong

[STRAT]

Good volume again today and only a small drop. Someone wants in large

[Financially dependant]

Good volume again today and only a small drop. Someone wants in large

Yes agree, I am hoping Santos or Beach to stir things up but the smart money seems to think VPE :confused:

[bermuda]

Yes agree, I am hoping Santos or Beach to stir things up but the smart money seems to think VPE :confused:
FD,
Great O&G conference. Might be able to get down to the Chch meeting on Saturday for a half an hour.

[Financially dependant]

FD,
Great O&G conference. Might be able to get down to the Chch meeting on Saturday for a half an hour.

Love to hear about the conference if you can make it, I should be there early........ITC going great guns, big volume of shares changing hands, into STO?? (dreaming out loud).

disc. I hold VPE

[airedale]

Despite a sea of red on my watchlist today, ITC held on to recent gains. Perhaps there really is an offer in the wind.
Discl: Holding ITC

[OutToLunch]

I had another read of their quarterly today and topped up again. If you believe in the potential of the "oil fairway" story, and peak oil, it looks pretty compelling to be holding ITC shares. I only hope that any takeover isn't made at a silly price straight after a market correction...

Holding ITC and VPE

[Paddie]

Hi Super B,

I would be interested in what you think about the stakes that Berne and Zero are accumulating?

A position now to reap the rewards of the 3D seismic that has been announced?

I would also add that today's increase in price and volume would indicate that there may be more happening than a slow and gradual accumulation.

I look forward to comments.

Regards
Paddie

[bermuda]

OTE=Paddie;304928]Hi Super B,

I would be interested in what you think about the stakes that Berne and Zero are accumulating?

A position now to reap the rewards of the 3D seismic that has been announced?

I would also add that today's increase in price and volume would indicate that there may be more happening than a slow and gradual accumulation.

I look forward to comments.

Regards
Paddie[/QUOTE]
Paddie,I bought into VPE because of their oil prospects and CSG potential. The more I got to know VPE the more I realised how undervaued both VPE and ITC are.. So I invested accordingly....and so did

VPE ( by aquireing a further 20% of this oil fairway ). Recently the results of the new 3D seismic have 'confirmed' ( you can never be sure ) that this oil play is better than most ever thought.

Paddie, as an aside I find this site infuriating when it comes to posting. It jumps up and down all the time.,

As to who is buying I would say they are doing the same thing as I did. Get in early and the rest will take care of itself. Robert Bryan has nearly 8m ITC and of course he owns about 27m VPE. And believe me the
guy is very very saavy

[Corporate]

Hmmm compared to VPE. I think ITC is getting ahead of itself...but maybe that is just the markets perception of management!

[OutToLunch]

14 million crossed at 6.5c. Sounds like we'll be getting some indication soon on whose buying.

[Paddie]

14 million crossed at 6.5c. Sounds like we'll be getting some indication soon on whose buying.

I also wouldn't mind knowing who is selling 14 million shares?

I can't get my head around those that are selling?

Paddie

[bermuda]

I also wouldn't mind knowing who is selling 14 million shares?

I can't get my head around those that are selling?

Paddie

Paddie,
They are the sort of people that can't believe they can sell at a profit into a global decline. They cannot see what is going to happen in 6 months. All they see is doom and gloom. And at the moment I can't blame them.

But those in the know will realise that gloom changes.

Everyone in life wants to improve their situation. And the Chinese and Indians are only just starting. Can you imagine a poor Indian/ Chinese dialling up google? They have the access now.

The world needs all the energy it can get.

ITC and VPE have some very good oil going forward and Australia will become a CSG major.

And perhaps later they will enjoy a shale gas revolution.

[STRAT]

I also wouldn't mind knowing who is selling 14 million shares?

I can't get my head around those that are selling?

PaddieHi Paddie.
There is always a seller for every buyer. Its whos most desperate that counts I reckon. Looking at the price action of ITC in this climate of the last week I reckon someone wants in bad and big. Exciting eh? Corporate reckons ITC might be getting ahead of its self when ompared to VPE. I think its probably just the better buy. Right now anyways.

I will be hanging onto mine. :D

heres a nice pic. Not easy to find one these days

[Oiler]

Paddie,
They are the sort of people that can't believe they can sell at a profit into a global decline. They cannot see what is going to happen in 6 months. All they see is doom and gloom. And at the moment I can't blame them.

And perhaps later they will enjoy a shale gas revolution.

Now you are talking B, join the Shale Gas revolution. :t_up:

[STRAT]

Now you are talking B, join the Shale Gas revolution. :t_up:Hi G.
Isnt that just another bubble like CSG but even further off? :eek2:

That NWE chart aint as pretty as ITC right now:lol:

[soulman]

I agree with STRAT. It can only be good and ITC trading in the 7's can't be that far off. Not holding.....yet.

[STRAT]

I agree with STRAT. It can only be good and ITC trading in the 7's can't be that far off. Not holding.....yet.Hi Soulman. The 11 year chart shows a bit more significance to the last time ITC pushed past 5.5c. You have left your interest a bit late mate.

With a bit of luck ITC is probably keeping me away from my usual spot and the wooden spoon ( something I have to wrestle Serpie for usually :p ) in the 2010 share pickin comp too :D

[airedale]

Hi Strat, I would not discourage Soulman, there may yet be a buying opportunity. Especially if the SP retraces back to the trend line and advances from there.
That is the classical theory, but he may want to dip his toe in the water anyway,:)
This action is similar to RPM almost 2 years ago. It took off at around 5 cents and was bought out at about 18.5 cents a few months later.
;)
Discl: Holding ITC

[OutToLunch]

There we go. The buyer is VPE, as many have suspected. Will a takeover be cash, or scrip, or both?

[STRAT]

Hi Strat, I would not discourage Soulman, there may yet be a buying opportunity. Especially if the SP retraces back to the trend line and advances from there.
That is the classical theory, but he may want to dip his toe in the water anyway,:)
This action is similar to RPM almost 2 years ago. It took off at around 5 cents and was bought out at about 18.5 cents a few months later.
;)
Discl: Holding ITCHi Airdale,
Fair call but I wasnt trying to discourage and Im a short term kind of fella in any case.

RPM I remember well. My first and only 3 bagger thanks to Bermuda. I have a bit more cash exposed these days. Would love to see that scenario repeat here :t_up:

[STRAT]

There we go. The buyer is VPE, as many have suspected. Will a takeover be cash, or scrip, or both?I picked this one in the share comp cause I though Eddie would want out this year. Health n all. Hope it doesnt go too cheap. Not sure I want more VPE either

[Financially dependant]

By looking at the announcement I think there might be another buyer out there????

[STRAT]

By looking at the announcement I think there might be another buyer out there????That would be nice but its probably VPE continuing to buy

[Financially dependant]

That would be nice but its probably VPE continuing to buy

VPE were buying through a nominee and tonight announced it was called 'Bernie' there is another a nominee called Zero been buying up lately also.....it might be a bit of inside info or another bidder?? I am thinking a leaky ship but hoping for Santos:)!

[OutToLunch]

VPE were buying through a nominee and tonight announced it was called 'Bernie' there is another a nominee called Zero been buying up lately also.....it might be a bit of inside info or another bidder?? I am thinking a leaky ship but hoping for Santos:)!

I don't think STO would be counterbidding as at best they'd only get to control 40% of the goods... unless they decide to take a tilt at VPE too, but I think that'd be unlikely

[bermuda]

That would be nice but its probably VPE continuing to buy

I just love this game and that is why I hold both ITC and VPE. ( newcomers please do your own research... a couple of quarterlys will do )

Patience is the key.

[bermuda]

I don't think STO would be counterbidding as at best they'd only get to control 40% of the goods... unless they decide to take a tilt at VPE too, but I think that'd be unlikely

It is logical that VPE takeover ITC.
1. Sir Eddie is getting older. He wants to sell.
2.Sir Eddie wants a fair deal for his shareholders. I commend him for that.
3.This fairway...and others prospects are completely undervalued
4.Rationalisation.

I watch with interest and pleased I had the patience to stay with both ITC and VPE.

[soulman]

OK, it's VPE. I will continue to watch for opportunities, maybe in the high 5's.

[airedale]

Hi Soulman, you may now get your chance to buy cheaper. ITC closed today in the high 4's. That is less than the 5 cents price that was paid by "professional investors" in the recent placement offer, and less than the 5 cents that director Eddie Smith paid for his last purchase.

[ELYOB]

SP is in for a hard time over the short term . My stockbroker says be ready for the day at 3.9c ..... well he recons ! If it does I would be prepared to buy 1m shares .

[airedale]

Today's ann:: Director Eddie Smith buys another 500,000 shares to add to his stockpile. If he is buying at 5 cents what will they be worth eventually?

[STRAT]

Hi Fellas.
Still got me beady eye on ITC. Worthy of note I think is that there has been no significant volume in the fall particularly when compared to the last rally. I would suggest those who bought are holding tight ( not me though, I never hold tight ).
Recent down trend has a nice confirmed trendline.

[airedale]

Hi Strat, that could be a bullish pennant forming halfway up the flag pole;).
Yes I am still holding tight. Why sell when Eddie is buying. Eddie Smith has at least 164,000,000 shares. Is it significant that he accumulates a comparitively piddling 500,000 more.Who knows.

[ELYOB]

Definitely something significant ahead ..... ?

[airedale]

Any thoughts on Eddie Smith's rollover of convertible notes. Announced today

[bermuda]

Any thoughts on Eddie Smith's rollover of convertible notes. Announced today

Easy money for Eddie. 10% interest and the knowledge of an increasing sp once drilling recommences.

[STRAT]

Hi Strat, that could be a bullish pennant forming halfway up the flag pole;).
Yes I am still holding tight. Why sell when Eddie is buying. Eddie Smith has at least 164,000,000 shares. Is it significant that he accumulates a comparitively piddling 500,000 more.Who knows.Hi Airedale,
Guess it wasnt bullish after all. ITC continues the slide on vey light volume. Disinterest seems to be the main signal from the chart.

Perhaps between Bermuda , Eddie and yourself most of the stock is held in firmly clenched hands. :eek2:

Short supply is always good for price action when sentiment changes. Cant be too far away now???:confused:

[airedale]

Fair comment,Strat, there may be some clue the future at next week's VPE meeting.

[airedale]

ITC annual report out yesterday. Seismic shows good prospects in Growler area. Joint venture with Santos for access to Chero pipeline.
During the flood shut-in well head pressures show good pressure build up. Extensive drilling program planned when water clears.
Looks like the oil is still there, just waiting for the flood to abate.

[STRAT]

No real volume yet but....................

[airedale]

Hi Strat, yes ITC definitely perking up today. Volume over 1 m so far. Not yet a significant amount for a penny stock but looks like the weak sellers at 4.4 cents have been shaken out. I have told the story before about Rothschild who said that the best time to buy is when the streets are running with blood. With ITC the best time to buy may be when the drill site is covered with water.As it is now;)

[STRAT]

Hi Airedale.
Ive always liked this pup. Back in today

[airedale]

Decent volume today. Over 2 million so far, and nudging upwards.

[STRAT]

Hi Airedale.
Nuttin to get too excited about Im thinkin. This has been going sideways since I re entered. Stop hasnt been hit but it really needs to clear 5.2 convincingly.

WCL is another is a similar position. Close but no Cigar

and NWE

and EKM


and :lol:

[Jess9]

Played with some no's to check out how realistic a 1 for 3-4 possible VPE script / cash offer is (as this has been bandied about here for some time). Looks like it stacks up from a quick once over at least. Could be coming soon as TA signals picking up. Penned some thoughts earlier today on HC...


If I were in VPE and looking at putting an offer up...

Up till recently markt has valued ITC at approx 33% of VPE's cap. This could provide the basis for a mostly script (amalgamation) offer i.e.

518m shares (VPE) / 0.67 = estimated post amalgamation shares of 773M.

This allows 255M shares to be issued by an amalgamated coy to ITC holders and the 33/67 spilt (ITC/VPE holder ownership) to be maintained post amalgamation.

ITC has 887M shares on issue. 887 / 255M = 3.5. A reasonable fair script offer would therefore be 3.5 ITC shares for 1 new VPE share ()in the amalgamated coy).

Now ITC also has some net cash and other odds and sods, there would be obvious synergies (cash savings and other operational efficiencies) and an additional "control" value released from one coy holding 100% of the western oilfield (especially after recent survey results further support elephant status). ASX trading liquidity would also be improved. Value to sweeten the deal to ES and top 20? say 2c per share.

Assume a share price of 35c VPE and a 5.2 for ITC, then the value of such an offer to ITC holder per share could be 12.5c per share. Plus the knowledge that the new VPE / Senex team will continue to unlock value in the fairway and diversify risk with CSG permits i.e. newly issued shares could well go up further. Question. What premium on this could be made if a VPE deal shakes out a second bidder???

Zero nominees could be building a stake in anticipation of VPE's move or be a local player wanting into the fairway. That would put alot of pressure on VPE's offer / timing.

Final thought, timing could be v. soon as each day forward from here upward pressure will push ITC's share price as the waters subside and drilling /production recomencement gets closer AND punters think along the above lines.

I think its been said by a respected poster on this (the HC) board that the new VPE / Senex team will be looking to cut their teeth on an acquisition, ITC as above, may work for every one.

[Jess9]

Hi Bermuda.

In your opinion is Beach Energy a likely alternative suitor (assuming VPE asks the question shortly : ) ?

[STRAT]

Played with some no's to check out how realistic a 1 for 3-4 possible VPE script / cash offer is (as this has been bandied about here for some time). Looks like it stacks up from a quick once over at least. Could be coming soon as TA signals picking up. Penned some thoughts earlier today on HC...


If I were in VPE and looking at putting an offer up...

Up till recently markt has valued ITC at approx 33% of VPE's cap. This could provide the basis for a mostly script (amalgamation) offer i.e.

518m shares (VPE) / 0.67 = estimated post amalgamation shares of 773M.

This allows 255M shares to be issued by an amalgamated coy to ITC holders and the 33/67 spilt (ITC/VPE holder ownership) to be maintained post amalgamation.

ITC has 887M shares on issue. 887 / 255M = 3.5. A reasonable fair script offer would therefore be 3.5 ITC shares for 1 new VPE share ()in the amalgamated coy).

Now ITC also has some net cash and other odds and sods, there would be obvious synergies (cash savings and other operational efficiencies) and an additional "control" value released from one coy holding 100% of the western oilfield (especially after recent survey results further support elephant status). ASX trading liquidity would also be improved. Value to sweeten the deal to ES and top 20? say 2c per share.

Assume a share price of 35c VPE and a 5.2 for ITC, then the value of such an offer to ITC holder per share could be 12.5c per share. Plus the knowledge that the new VPE / Senex team will continue to unlock value in the fairway and diversify risk with CSG permits i.e. newly issued shares could well go up further. Question. What premium on this could be made if a VPE deal shakes out a second bidder???

Zero nominees could be building a stake in anticipation of VPE's move or be a local player wanting into the fairway. That would put alot of pressure on VPE's offer / timing.

Final thought, timing could be v. soon as each day forward from here upward pressure will push ITC's share price as the waters subside and drilling /production recomencement gets closer AND punters think along the above lines.

I think its been said by a respected poster on this (the HC) board that the new VPE / Senex team will be looking to cut their teeth on an acquisition, ITC as above, may work for every one.Hi Jess.
Im wondering if an offer from VPE may be less attractive as time goes by.
VPE will rise I suspect on back of new CSG sentiment while assetts VPE and ITC have in common remain proportional. 1 for 5 maybe?

[Jess9]

Any deal will have to work for ES and crew. I think Directors pool of shares is around 20%? The Oil is proving up bigger and bigger. It is cash-flow NOW which could be used to fund further CSG development. There are also other players in the area who may also make an offer if VPE is tardy. Therefore I guess 1 for 3-4 holds, with some cash. Likely value per ITC share anywhere between 12-20c depending on a few key factors, competing offers and traders playing any runs.

[airedale]

ITC makes another attempt to break out of the trading range. More volume would be more convincing.

[Jess9]

The ratio thing is complicated by CSG in the mix. I guess Strat, the ratio is possibly less relevant IF the cash equivalent remains at the right exit level for the Directors. What I mean is that if 1 for 5 equals an equivalent of say 16c per share (mid point of the range noted above) then it could still work. Anyway lets see where this all goes next. Drilling gets closer in any event day by day.

[Jess9]

Hi airdale.

Looks like a s/term up trend, tentative at least to me - per bigcharts.com. I like the OBV accumulation also.

[bermuda]

Hi Bermuda.

In your opinion is Beach Energy a likely alternative suitor (assuming VPE asks the question shortly : ) ?

Yes,
Beach are an alternative suitor. What I always and continue to think is that Beach might make a grab for VPE's oil assets after it picks up and develops the oil fairway. ( i.e VPE takes over ITC with a 1 for 4 plus cash offer )


Then in comes Santos and takes out VPE ( in about 3 years ). But against that , if VPE get things going next year in the Cooper, Santos might strike first.

[Jess9]

Cheers Bermuda. Agree. The recent TA looks like one of the two is considering to move, before drilling commences / gets any closer. What will ES accept is the big question? A cash equivalent range of 12 - 20c per ITC share is still my pick next. Looking at Beach and Senex. I wouldn't be unhappy for shares in any deal from either. BE a treat for ITC holder were 2 offers forthcoming shortly.

[STRAT]

Hi Jess.
Its not large but there is a rise in volume. Available stock is in short supply and the increased interest is pushing it up. Looks good.

As a matter of interest I suspect VPE is being accumulated. If it is I wonder by who and what the implications might be?

[Jess9]

Yes,
Beach are an alternative suitor. What I always and continue to think is that Beach might make a grab for VPE's oil assets after it picks up and develops the oil fairway. ( i.e VPE takes over ITC with a 1 for 4 plus cash offer )


Then in comes Santos and takes out VPE ( in about 3 years ). But against that , if VPE get things going next year in the Cooper, Santos might strike first.



Hi Strat.

TA looks like this one is going to go off IMO...for the above reason. TA to date suggests this has been under way for awhile IMO.

VPE at 45-50c next would make an offer on ITC worth 11-12.5c per share...and as Bermuda notes..likely likely to also include some cash component...after all ITC does hold about 8M net cash (about 1c per share)...I also note VPE also has quite a bit of cash... about 30M...so a cash component could be up to 2c in total??

ITC would really fly, maybe a bit above this if another suitor wants in 1st...how much oil is under that basin...how good was that seismic data?? Finally I hear the water is falling /drying off much faster than stated to date. So its game on IMO.

[Jess9]

PS agree on VPE, its been grinding higher on good volume day by day... supports a move by VPE on ITC next...

[Jess9]

I think VPE needs this deal to move forward from here. It really needs to get 100% of the Western fairway before it can unlock the value, proving up there...VPE's risk is that one of the other players in the basin gets ITC 1st...I know VPE has a blocking stake but that may not be an issue if VPE is the next duck. Consolidation in the area is underway.

[bermuda]

I think VPE needs this deal to move forward from here. It really needs to get 100% of the Western fairway before it can unlock the value, proving up there...VPE's risk is that one of the other players in the basin gets ITC 1st...I know VPE has a blocking stake but that may not be an issue if VPE is the next duck. Consolidation in the area is underway.
Jess,
Yes it is a gamble but I reckon Davies is awaiting imminent news from British Gas. It was promised on 30 September. It can't be far away. Imagine what happens then. Far out. ( The ASX will be flabbergasted )

[Jess9]

B...reckon it will change that ratio...or instead swing ES to sign-up to a pre bid 1:4?

[Jess9]

Last thought...that Cooper oil is much more certain right now as it will provide the permit holder with very very significant cashflow, just by turning that field back on...AND in a month or two. The $ promise from a "CSG go" for VPE is also great... but surely so much further down the track vs Cooper oil?

[Jess9]

OK last thought for real now : )

Assuming VPE gets ITC (and not Beach etc ; ) maybe it should spin off "ITC" holding 100% of the Cooper Permits to separate its CSG from Oil. Market might understand both companies better, value wise??

[Jay]

Just Sold ..... in error :(, still for a nice 25% profit in just over a month, had not broken the trendline on either price or the OBV, but I put the sold sign on the wrong share , that's what you get when you "panic" seeing the market down and busy at work. The "right" share stayed the same in the end. - no not telling which one ;)

However looking at the candle for today looks like it might take breather - ITC that is.

[Jess9]

me too! Got hit Friday while I was changing my mind!!...Put funds into VPE...I pick up that VPE may move 1st when BG release their JV CSG cert...but who knows. I think the CSG cert is a few weeks overdue now...

[Jess9]

Others also seem to think BG may open their wallet for the certified reserves...but who knows until it actually happens

[STRAT]

You fellas run tight stops eh? :D

While there does appear to be some resistance at 6.5. ITC hasnt looked this good for an age.

Hey Jess that almost constitutes a P&D on your part lol

[STRAT]

- no not telling which one ;)

Come on Jay

Share with the other kids :D

[Jay]

Just for you Strat , but don't tell anyone

MEL - running quite a tight "stop" on it though as I got in on the recent second attempt of moving up
Finished slightly down at EOD

[STRAT]

Thanks J. Mums the word.

Lookin alright too.

[Jess9]

Hi Strat. Yeah I think I moved parties too soon. VPE has been less fun since Friday : (

TA wise, I guess I should have sold VPE a day or two ago and waited for a change in sentiment...but the FA stuff is soo persuasive right now.

C'mon Mr Market...get VPE right ; )


J9
Director of Marketing

: )

[STRAT]

Hi Jess.

Hope this isnt a P&D on VPE now:lol:

VPE has given off a few sell signals but nothing to panic about. We both know the market has ignored compelling fundamentals on this one for years so I assume its possible the market may continue to do so for however long it chooses to.
I rise today for ITC would be additional confirmation to the steepest trend line and make this picture even prettier

[STRAT]

There was a 1 mil bid at 6.7 at pre open. I was expecting it to get pulled.

It wasnt:eek2:

Perhaps it was Eddie increasing his blocking stake, what with VPE raising capital to buy ITC outright :lol::lol::lol:

[airedale]

Hi Strat, VPE are raising capital for something......see today's trading halt.

[STRAT]

Hi Strat, VPE are raising capital for something......see today's trading halt.Hi Airedale.
I saw that. The bit about raising the dosh for an ITC buy out was just a bit of a joke I thought Jess would appreciate

[STRAT]

Hi Bermuda. Any thoughts on VPEs cap raising?

[STRAT]

Next sell 7.5c. This will either stall now or go off like a cracker

[STRAT]

Im sure some people have spent more on a pretty picture :D

[Jess9]

Well VPE weren't shy of dosh as of yesterday...what are they going to buy?...if it was ITC directly it of coarse would also be in TH. Maybe its linked to the CSG cert...I usually hate TH for cap raising but this one could be well received. BOW also sought recent funding.

[bermuda]

Hi Bermuda. Any thoughts on VPEs cap raising?

Caught me a bit by surprise. I hate these capital raisings. You have to wait a month or so before you are back to square one.

My thoughts
1. Davies doesn't sit around.
2. ITC is in his sights
3. Cuisinier is a winner. More drilling required.
4. BG- more drilling.
5. Cooper is better than ever.

Glad I have both VPE and ITC.
Don't you just love this game.

I would put my money where it is . ITC.

[STRAT]

I would put my money where it is . ITC.Thanks Bermuda.

I suspect ITC holders will be the winners in this business if the cap raising by VPE is connected to ITC for reasons mentioned in my last post on the VPE thread.

[ELYOB]

I suggest working out what Eddie wants to make the big exit ......this is the key . Is it somewhere near 8c .... This is the time of Eddie

[bermuda]

I suggest working out what Eddie wants to make the big exit ......this is the key . Is it somewhere near 8c .... This is the time of Eddie

I am only guessing but I reckon Eddie will want the equivalent of 15 cents. He will probably settle for 13 made up through cash and VPE shares. With what VPE has in front of them Eddie will be a happy man.

I am biased both ways as I hold both ITC and VPE.

[OutToLunch]

There you go Jess. Beach is tilting at ITC. Maybe this is why VPE have filled their coffers... to go on the counterattack. The bid is on the low side so I can't imagine they'd let go of their blocking stake that easily.

Happy shareholder here. :D

[STRAT]

There you go Jess. Beach is tilting at ITC. Maybe this is why VPE have filled their coffers... to go on the counterattack. The bid is on the low side so I can't imagine they'd let go of their blocking stake that easily.

Happy shareholder here. :D
I hope you are right about VPE guys cause I certainly DONT think life is a beach and certainly DONT want my ITC shares to end up in the hands of these guys at 8 odd cents. Below is one of those pictures that is worth a thousand words.

Let the fun and games begin :D

[OutToLunch]

G'day Strat. I agree. 8.25c is too low. Also I gather that 10% isn't a blocking stake in a merger situation, it just needs 75% shareholder approval to go ahead. Is that correct? In that case VPE have a fight on their hands given that Eddie supports this proposal.

[STRAT]

G'day Strat. . Also I gather that 10% isn't a blocking stake in a merger situation, it just needs 75% shareholder approval to go ahead. Is that correct? In that case VPE have a fight on their hands given that Eddie supports this proposal.Hi OTL.
I dont know if that is the case or not.

Many here thought VPE would be the one to have a go. One could view this as a second offer:eek2: In any case an auction never goes as well when there is only one bidder. We will just have to wait and see what VPE or any other does next.

[Paddie]

I am suprised that Eddie is supporting this proposal at 8.25c.

Let's hope VPE step up to the plate.

Paddie

[OutToLunch]

I thought VPE would have had a go too. All eyes on VPE then... see my post on the BPT thread speculating whether Eddie has agreed to this low offer in order to flush out the competition.

Got my popcorn. Let the show begin. :cool:

[Jess9]

There you go Jess. Beach is tilting at ITC. Maybe this is why VPE have filled their coffers... to go on the counterattack. The bid is on the low side so I can't imagine they'd let go of their blocking stake that easily.

Happy shareholder here. :D

Well done.

I jumped to VPE just a week too soon it seems : )

Strat...RMS over your 90c line now..

[STRAT]

Strat...RMS over your 90c line now..So it has. You holding some Jess?

[gazprom1]

START,

Seems a little low but S/H's that have got in recently at around the 5 cent level will be eyeing the 60 per cent return which will be over a 5/6 month period (buy October - cash paid in April)...mmm!! Interesting the ES has gone with BPT...hope that he is trying to flush out VPE....

Gaz

[Jess9]

So it has. You holding some Jess?

Locked into VPE right now ; )

If 90 holds / provides support... I may move some over.

[OutToLunch]

Well done.

I jumped to VPE just a week too soon it seems : )

Strat...RMS over your 90c line now..

Bummer Jess9, sorry I thought you were still in ITC...

[ELYOB]

I am only guessing but I reckon Eddie will want the equivalent of 15 cents. He will probably settle for 13 made up through cash and VPE shares. With what VPE has in front of them Eddie will be a happy man.

I am biased both ways as I hold both ITC and VPE.

Now , I was on time and on the money , and I suggest this is the E! move . He is on his way and lets not forget this is his company and has been for years .He kept it alive and kept the dream going . VPE isnt much chop imho.

[ronthepom]

There was a 1 mil bid at 6.7 at pre open. I was expecting it to get pulled.

It wasnt:eek2:

Perhaps it was Eddie increasing his blocking stake, what with VPE raising capital to buy ITC outright :lol::lol::lol:

You hit the nail on the head there Strat. lol

[yogi-in-oz]

ITC ... updated astroanalysis ..... 23112010

:)

Hi folks,

ITC ..... a merger with BPT is now on the table and that may make for some
good trading opportunities in ITC, over the next few months. Here’s some
astroanalysis for ITC, through to March 2011:

25112010 ... 2 time cycles, expected to bring some positive news.

29112010 ... 1 x positive and 1 x negative cycle = flat trading (?)

15-16122010 ... minor and positive light on ITC

24122010 ... minor news expected here

31122010 ... minor cycle

03012011 ... minor cycle ... finances(???)

07012011 ... 1 x positive and 1 x negative cycle. News expected,
but trading may be flat-to-down.

13-14012011 ... negative spotlight on ITC

28012011 ... minor and positive time cycle ... finance-related (?)

31012011 ... significant and negative news expected here.

11-15022011 ... 2 positive time cycles, bring spotlight onto ITC

18022011 ... positive news expected here

24-25022011 ... significant and negative cycle due here

04-07032011 ... minor and negative cycle, with news expected, too.

14032011 ... difficult aspect, may bring flat trading

21-22032011 ... positive time cycle ... finances (?)

24-25032011 ... difficult aspect expected.

28032011 ... significant and negative news expected here.


More later ...

have a great day

paul

:)

=====

[airedale]

VPE have announced that they intend to increase their stake from 15.9% to 20% but do not intend to make a counter bid for ITC. The question is how much will they pay for their next 4.1%?

[STRAT]

They want a blocking stake so that they can force Beach to up their bid price.Interesting point KW and something I know little about. Arent Beach trying to avoid that by calling it a merger and will they get away with it if they are?

[bermuda]

VPE have announced that they intend to increase their stake from 15.9% to 20% but do not intend to make a counter bid for ITC. The question is how much will they pay for their next 4.1%?
Airedale,
If you read the VPE notice carefully you will notice that they do not presently wish to make a takeover bid. Not to say they won't make one later on. VPE want ITC.

Moss doesn't grow on Davies shoes. It is a win win for both ITC and VPE.

[Crypto Crude]

Huummmm... been thinking about this one for a year...
didnt say nothing...
well, hopefully a bid to realise true long term value...
might not be much unless a liftoff off development (which is rare), occurs...

hopefully a bid from VPE does not eventuate. .... The true leverage will come from CSG...
at the moment this is small fry stuff..... go get a big mac......
lol... excuse my humour...
:cool:
.^sc

[STRAT]

Beach need 75% of votes for a merger by scheme of arrangment to succeed, so if VPE work in with another major holder, or assume that other smaller shareholders will collectively vote against the proposition, they will defeat the merger proposal. Unlike a takeover bid where a company can acquire a % of the company, a scheme merger is all or nothing. So an agitating shareholder can put pressure on the acquiring company to offer a price that they are happy with, or take the risk that the merger proposal will be defeated.

This is what has happened with RHD - a large shareholder said they would consider making a bid themselves, because the original merger offer was unfair and unreasonable. The offer was then increased, but not by enough, and the delay then allowed CND a chance to come in with a takeover bid.

I topped up at 7.9 on the basis that I think there will be a better offer down the track :-) I'm getting used to having a significant portion of my portfolio being subject to takeover offers, so now I work the angles on them.

The risk here is that VPE defeat the merger, but dont take it over themselves, and the ITC share price then languishes. Beach may also drop the merger idea and make a takeover bid instead, and be happy with whatever % they end up with - which would take it out of VPE's reach as then Beach have the blocking stake. Small shareholders might well get caught in the middle.Thanks for that KW. Much appreciated

[ELYOB]

...which ever way , E~! wants out of here .... he will get his price and leave it to 'em. VPE are hopeless IMHO , they have failed to get on with the biz in the past and pissed ITC off . Dont see much change unless BPT win over . If BPT leaves , SP will collapse, remember E~! was the one who always supported it by himself !!! VPE is an over-rated stock IMHO. Time will tell. DYOR.

[bermuda]

...which ever way , E~! wants out of here .... he will get his price and leave it to 'em. VPE are hopeless IMHO , they have failed to get on with the biz in the past and pissed ITC off . Dont see much change unless BPT win over . If BPT leaves , SP will collapse, remember E~! was the one who always supported it by himself !!! VPE is an over-rated stock IMHO. Time will tell. DYOR.

Elyob,
What is your opinion of the top shareholders in VPE? You will note that AFIC have just invested at 37 cents and that Sentient Group have invested further at 37 cents. These guys are heavyweights and know exactly what VPE has in store. And so does Eddie. That is why he won't mind a cash and VPE scrip offer. Much much better than cash.
DYOR.

[ELYOB]

bermuda, I feel for E~! through what he had to put up with from VPE in the past 18 months . Dont think there is much love left . They have been a bad partner . Ok the mgt has changed but E~! I feel has lost it , and time to move on . E~! has had a loyal following who want out as well. You might find VPE has made a mistake in past months . It might be all too late now to do the big turn around . You are either into oil or CSG. Time is now running to sort VPE out . I wont judge but I feel BPT know what they are doing . E~! if you know him might give some idea how he will treat VPE ASXann of playing the blocker/time strategy by VPE .

Geeez!

Anyway , B .... good luckout there .

[OutToLunch]

The risk here is that VPE defeat the merger, but dont take it over themselves, and the ITC share price then languishes. Beach may also drop the merger idea and make a takeover bid instead, and be happy with whatever % they end up with - which would take it out of VPE's reach as then Beach have the blocking stake. Small shareholders might well get caught in the middle.

Fair call, that's indeed a possibility. Going by the fall back to 7.8c, perhaps the market is agreeing with this too. I expect we won't see much change now until either BPT up their bid, or the independent report comes out with a valuation above 8.25c. Or VPE certify their CSG and then launch a scrip bid off the back off a higher share price.

[airedale]

I just got a letter from Chairman Eddie Smith advising that the Beach offer of 8.25 cents is as good as its going to get. But I am not yet convinced. There may be "further developments" between now and March/April.

[STRAT]

I just got a letter from Chairman Eddie Smith advising that the Beach offer of 8.25 cents is as good as its going to get. But I am not yet convinced. There may be "further developments" between now and March/April.I picked ITC for the comp cause I figured Eddie would want out this year. He has had major health issues and theres nothin like that for takin the fight out of ya. My guess is hes had enough and just wants to move on. Cant see anything coming from ITC to perpetuate a bidding war. VPE say they arent interested. Hmm you never know though eh? ITC is now on my cash up if some thing better comes along list.

[gazprom1]

Who is the registrar for ITC? I have lost my share certificate with my SRN on it. I am going to cash up and move on.

Thanks in advance.

Gazprom

[STRAT]

www.Computershare.com


Who is the registrar for ITC? I have lost my share certificate with my SRN on it. I am going to cash up and move on.

Thanks in advance.

Gazprom

[gazprom1]

Thanks Strat. I am guessing I will be able to log on and get the SRn off the wedsite??!!!!

[STRAT]

Not sure Gaz. Ive never done it.

Dont loose my bits of paper :p

I figured you would be able to get an address or phone number from there if you cant do it on line.

[gazprom1]

I have just logged in and they only give you part of the SRN and the rest is *****. I recall that they charge for another piece of paper!!!! Good lesson for me.

Cheers
Gaz

[STRAT]

I have just logged in and they only give you part of the SRN and the rest is *****. I recall that they charge for another piece of paper!!!! Good lesson for me.

Cheers
Gaz
Id start with a phone call.

By the way I do loose bits of paper from time to time :D

[airedale]

Gazprom, try Computershare Investor Services Pty Ltd
Perth phone number: 1300 557 010.

[gazprom1]

Cheers guys. Called them and they were pretty good. Told me I was stupid (and I agreed) and that they would send me another copy. I would have liked them to tell me over the phone but such is life.

Gaz

[Jess9]

Does anyone know current status of flooding in Cooper Basin? NSW floods back in news today...

Cheers.

[whirly]

Does anyone know current status of flooding in Cooper Basin? NSW floods back in news today...

Cheers.

COOPER CREEK

Major flooding is rising at Windorah as Barcoo and Thomson River flood waters
converge. At 6am Sunday the creek level was at 5.62 metres and rising slowly.

River levels downstream at Durham Downs are expected to be experiencing minor
flooding, with higher levels and moderate flooding expected later this week.

http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/wrap_fwo.pl?IDQ20860.html

[OutToLunch]

The merger's off, to be replaced by a takeover offer...

http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20101206/pdf/31vdhpb83vlp1t.pdf

Now, what will VPE do? If they're serious about ITC I guess they will have no choice but to make a higher bid, presumably a mix of scrip and cash.

[OutToLunch]

There it is: 709,470,720 shares are being bid for at 8.5c on-market. The acid test: will VPE start bidding at 8.6 and above?

[STRAT]

Good on Beach for cutting out the crap and getting down to it.

[STRAT]

There it is: 709,470,720 shares are being bid for at 8.5c on-market. The acid test: will VPE start bidding at 8.6 and above?Just saw that OTL.
This will be fun to watch. Wonder how long it will take to empty the sell column.

[trackers]

Thats an impressive buy side if ever I saw one lol

[OutToLunch]

Thats an impressive buy side if ever I saw one lol

Nah, it's just traders. :D

[OutToLunch]

Is that VPE at 8.6...?

[Jess9]

Nice one KW.

Will VPE counter offer with a cash/script deal or let it go, and maybe pass operatorship to BPT, free them up for CSG and they just take the income...and of course pay their dev share. 8.5c per itc share is a good return on vpe's purchase cost. The Basin may also stay shut in for longer, if this new round of flooding continues.

[Financially dependant]

Nice one KW.

Will VPE counter offer with a cash/script deal or let it go, and maybe pass operatorship to BPT, free them up for CSG and they just take the income...and of course pay their dev share. 8.5c per itc share is a good return on vpe's purchase cost. The Basin may also stay shut in for longer, if this new round of flooding continues.

IMHO they should let it go and hand over operatorship and hook up to BPT pipelines and infrastructure. That is a much better relationship/JV then they have at the moment.

[The Big Ease]

If they let it go, VPE effectively becomes an investment vehicle into energy assets and pretty much ceases to be an explorer/producer.

[OutToLunch]

I'm pretty sure this one's played out now. I'll wait until BPT gain control (probably this week) and at that point I'll sell. Was hoping that VPE might launch a counter-offer, but this now looks unlikely.

[ELYOB]

CSG side is bleeding VPE , they want to watch themselves , a wrong play here may get them in a big mess.

[airedale]

Interesting, 1 million plus went through at 8.6 cents today.

[STRAT]

CSG side is bleeding VPE , they want to watch themselves , a wrong play here may get them in a big mess.Hi Elyob.
Why would that be? If BPT end up owning ITC then VPE are in the same position they were before the takeover. A partner in the Oil.

While it would be fair to say BPT are less than champion at creating wealth for their shareholders but at least they have deep pockets.

[pago]

Interesting, 1 million plus went through at 8.6 cents today.

hi guys
looks like vpe will not bid up the price
i will sell tomorrow,8.6c would be nice to help with the brokerage.
my target on itc was 10/13c,
question is ,where to put the funds?
interesting to watch the market today to see where the itc sellers are buying
i will look at topping up on ssn,rog,ccc,thr,or their options ,when the price is right.
im back into research mode for something new
cheers pago

[airedale]

Out of 28 million, just a little over 1 million went through at 8.6. VWAP was 8.5. Looks like it is game over. I am out and on my way to the bank.

[STRAT]

Plenty of Directors have sold up, and correct me if I am wrong but we havent seen a CODIN from Eddie yet.

[airedale]

Know what you are saying, Strat, but he has written to all shareholders and said that he intends to sell at 8.5. The custard will fly if he doesn't.

[Jess9]

hmmme VPE says no.

[OutToLunch]

Isn't Eddie's holding included in the latest 604 (top of p3)?

Meanwhile VPE announce that "they're assessing their options" with respect to the bid. I'd say that they need to make their minds up quickly, they've probably only got until afternoon T time at best... if it's not already too late.

[STRAT]

Isn't Eddie's holding included in the latest 604 (top of p3)?

Meanwhile VPE announce that "they're assessing their options" with respect to the bid. I'd say that they need to make their minds up quickly, they've probably only got until afternoon T time at best... if it's not already too late.Hi OTL
Still dont see this as a problem for VPE. Of course Id love anyone to point out where Im going wrong but VPE announced this morning they dont intend to sell their 20% in ITC. That leaves them with a 60% interest in the Cooper plus 20% of ITCs interest. with BPT at best roughly a 32% minority stake holder with deeper pockets than ITC. Wheres the problem for VPE?

I suspect VPE arent doing anything because perhaps they dont think they need to.

[OutToLunch]

You're probably right Strat. So long as there aren't too many bunfights between VPE and BPT doen the track if they don't agree on anything related to the JV. (I gather that relations between VPE and ITC weren't necessarily all that flash anyway). Having said that, ITC's sp might stagnate if it remains listed after this is done and dusted... or will we see a sequel later on to mop up the crumbs? Not sure. May just take my 8.5c anyway once BPT have control.

[STRAT]

You're probably right Strat. So long as there aren't too many bunfights between VPE and BPT doen the track if they don't agree on anything related to the JV. (I gather that relations between VPE and ITC weren't necessarily all that flash anyway). Having said that, ITC's sp might stagnate if it remains listed after this is done and dusted... or will we see a sequel later on to mop up the crumbs? Not sure. May just take my 8.5c anyway once BPT have control.I havent sold but I consider my ITC to be available cash if something exciting comes along.:D

Of course its not over till its over. I remember selling RPM at 20. I would have been smarter to have accepted BOWs offer lol.

[OutToLunch]

I havent sold but I consider my ITC to be available cash if something exciting comes along.:D


Likewise. Although "exciting" for me might be just taking the cash to knock a big hole in the mortgage. A guaranteed return in a toppy-looking market.

In any case, someone's gotta pay for that big guy to squeeze down the chimney in a couple of weeks' time. :eek2:

Still, if BPT don't get to gain control now that VPE are digging in, perhaps a sweetener might be in the offing?

[OutToLunch]

BPT are now dissing VPE as acting out of self-interest. BPT, on the other hand are totally benign and acting purely for the benfit of ITC shareholders.

Looks like the entertainment phase has begun. :D

[STRAT]

“ VicPet will continue to act in its own best interests BUT our focus is on providing an opportunity for Impress shareholders to CAPTURE the UNDERLYING value of their investment Mr Nelson said.




LOL :eek2:



Heres a fine example of how they go about providing an oportunity for BPT shareholders to do the same:lol:

[airedale]

Hi Strat, that chart may yet be on your break out thread, but I think that VPE breaking above .40 will be a better punt at this stage.