LGL-Lihir GOLD

[JBmurc]

yet another bargin unhegded gold major;)currently


Lihir Gold Limited (LHG) is a gold mining, development and exploration company, focused on the Lihir Project on Lihir Island, Papua New Guinea. The project was established in the late 1990's to develop one of the largest undeveloped gold deposits in the world.

MrktCap-6bill


--From Fat phops----
We view the present uncertainty and aversion towards gold and gold stocks as a great buying opportunity. Our favoured gold stock continues to be Lihir Gold (LGL), primarily because of its impressive production profile and low cost structure.

The company's Lihir Island gold resource is a massive 40 million ounces, including 20 million in reserves. Because of this huge deposit, Lihir does not need to invest too much on the exploration front.

Meanwhile, the size of the resource has also put Lihir in the enviable position of having too much gold and not enough processing capacity. As a result, initiatives are now in place which will see Lihir Island's production climb to over 800,000 ounces this calendar year (from 650,000 in 2006), rising to 1 million ounces by 2010.

Furthermore, earlier this year Lihir undertook a $1.2 billion capital raising to eliminate the hedge book and pay down debt. So now, Lihir is unhedged, debt free and therefore leveraged to higher gold prices while carrying lower financial risk.

In our opinion, these attributes add up to an outstanding investment opportunity.

[airedale]

Hi JB, I have been in LGL since it was 1.20 and have pyramided up over the last 2 years. The chart looks healthy, and $3.00 has been left behind. The next move up in the POG will not be too far away, and LGL are unhedged so will benefit.[:I]

[JBmurc]

Sure will airedale Golds very close to starting the next strong uptrend IMHO not doult on the back of the DOW falling strongly

[The Great Gold Guru]

Great performance today ... story is still in its infancy ...

Buy Gold, Get rich .

[shasta]

Great performance today ... story is still in its infancy ...

Buy Gold, Get rich .

The P/E ratio on ASB Securities shows as 45.9!

Whats your forward PE for 2008/09?

Looks expensive to me

[The Great Gold Guru]

Depends what gold price you want to use I suppose. Gold miners and PE ratio's are a bit of a nonsense IMHO .... yep, great for a bank or widget maker , but not for stocks like LGL. Market cap vs proven oz's is more useful to me.

[shasta]

Depends what gold price you want to use I suppose. Gold miners and PE ratio's are a bit of a nonsense IMHO .... yep, great for a bank or widget maker , but not for stocks like LGL. Market cap vs proven oz's is more useful to me.

I see they have 1.9 billion shares on issue!!!

Perhaps a consolidation is in order?

[Huang Chung]

Huntleys rarely get excited by Lihir.....they have just increased their valuation by 4% to $2.35. Worries about cost pressures (despite geothermal power) and Ballarat.

[shasta]

Huntleys rarely get excited by Lihir.....they have just increased their valuation by 4% to $2.35. Worries about cost pressures (despite geothermal power) and Ballarat.

I've looked at Lihir (LGL) & for what ever reason i just don't see anything compelling about it & perhaps see NEM as a better gold play...

Any gold bug, got other suggestions?

[airedale]

$2.35 is certainly conservative! The SP has been over $3.00 for some time now.

[Huang Chung]

Airdale, they have a similar stance with other stocks, such as Jubilee Mines (JBM).

For my money, a couple of gold stocks worth looking at are AVO and IGR. Don't hold either, but they look interesting.

[The Great Gold Guru]

Try Dominion Mining Shasta if you can't get excited by Lihir .... check out the last quartely, it was awesome.

DOM +4 , 284

Buy Lihir, Keep Lihir , Love Lihir .

[shasta]

Try Dominion Mining Shasta if you can't get excited by Lihir .... check out the last quartely, it was awesome.

DOM +4 , 284

Buy Lihir, Keep Lihir , Love Lihir .

Will add it to my considerable list of "stocks on watch".

So far best goldie i've found is NEM...

[shasta]

Try Dominion Mining Shasta if you can't get excited by Lihir .... check out the last quartely, it was awesome.

DOM +4 , 284

Buy Lihir, Keep Lihir , Love Lihir .

DOM's quarterly was fantastic - will look into it further, thanks ;)

[JBmurc]

Lihir Gold's managing director Arthur Hood joined me in the studio earlier this evening.

Arthur Hood, welcome to Lateline Business.

ARTHUR HOOD, MANAGING DIRECTOR, LIHIR GOLD: Thank you.

ALI MOORE: With today's production report you've had a record half year and you're on track now to meet full-year forecasts and indeed the long-standing plan to produce more than a million ounces a year?

ARTHUR HOOD: Absolutely. Yes, we're very pleased with today's guidance. We've come in line with guidance. We're on track to achieve 800 to 830 ounces this year and we have the feasibility in place and we're working through that now, which will see us expand production to over a million ounces per annum from the Lihir operation.

ALI MOORE: That feasibility study, when will you make a decision?

ARTHUR HOOD: We would like to see the feasibility study finished early next year and then we'll make a decision from there. It may well be that we decide to expand the operation in stages rather than in one hit.

ALI MOORE: I gather from what you're saying that the feasibility study is looking very good, almost a dead certainty for a go-ahead?

ARTHUR HOOD: I've certainly indicated that we consider that it's just a case of actually working through it and completing the exercise. We don't see any downside and certainly not with the gold price environment that we have at the moment and the reduce in cost profile we have at Lihir.

ALI MOORE: Are you stockpiling gold at the moment there?

ARTHUR HOOD: We are. That's one of the great advantages we have. We're mining twice as much ore as we can currently process. The only thing we have to do to expand production is increase the size of the process plant and optimise the process plant.

ALI MOORE: You talk about production costs and your production costs at Lihir were down in the quarter. And yet at the same time that's offset by those issues we hear so much about in your industry: the higher equipment costs, the higher tyre costs, all those sorts of things. To what extent are your lower costs on your power front and your production front similarly running fast to stand still because of your higher costs at the other end?

ARTHUR HOOD: That's true, we are getting great savings from our geothermal plant. We have 56 megawatts of installed capacity now which is about 75 per cent of our power requirement and we're generating power for about one cent a kilowatt hour.

Instead of seeing our costs drop as much as we expected at the beginning of this year, courtesy of the very strong Aussie dollar against the US, we're actually managing to hold costs whereas most other mining companies are finding their costs increasing. In a relative sense it's still very positive.

ALI MOORE: In a relative sense it's positive but how much are those pressures on that side of demand for the tyres, for the equipment, for the labour, how much of an impact is that still having on your operations?

ARTHUR HOOD: Well, we see that not having that much of an impact on our operations particularly going forward because our production is increasing but our costs will remain approximately the same. It's a denominator problem. We're increasing the size of the denominator and that will increase unit cost of production. That's why we're confident that unit cost of production will continue to drop over the next year or so.

ALI MOORE: All of this talk about cost brings me to your new project, Ballarat Goldfields, which is an area that has not been mined for 90 years. You're making progress on the mining development, are you still on track for first commercial production in the second half of next year?

ARTHUR HOOD: Absolutely. Yes. We're very comfortable. We're getting record development rates. We are exploring and expanding the ore body that we will be mining from the middle of next year.

We see small amounts of production over the next three or four quarters but full commercial production in the second half of 2008 with maybe about 100,000 ounces or so produced next year.

ALI MOORE: I think you hope to get about 250,000 ounces eventually out of the ground there. There seems to be disagreement in the investment community about whether you'll get that. How confident are you?

ARTHUR HOOD: We're very confident. We see we're starting 200,000 ounce a year plus operation from the second half of next year. We see there'll be a long-life mine there producing in excess of 200,000 ounces a year for many years to come. It will be a renaissance, it will be the long awaited renaissance in the Victorian mining industry.

ALI MOORE: You talked about the price of gold before and obviously there's a positive outlook from your point of view. But just today we saw gold fall from an 11-week high, the US dollar seems to be making gains against the euro. Where do you think prices are going? Can you put a number on it?

ARTHUR HOOD: I wouldn't be so bold to put a number on it. But the underlying fundamentals are good for gold. Gold price is going to stay strong into the immediate and medium term future. Yes, there will be day to day volatility or week to week volatility, but if you're producing gold at $2.50 an ounce the margin is good, whether the price is $6.70 or $6.80 an ounce.

ALI MOORE: Do you think it will get to 700 fairly soon?

ARTHUR HOOD: I think so. I think that will happen in the not too distant future.

ALI MOORE: You're helped enormously by interest rate worries, US housing market worries, inflation worries, all of that feeds into liking gold?

ARTHUR HOOD: Absolutely. It certainly tends to move against the US dollar. A weaker US dollar will see a stronger gold price. There's many other fundamentals driving gold price.

Increasing jewellery demand from India and China. Increased investment demand into gold and on top of that, LG L, Lihir Gold Limited is a great turnaround story. We've got unhedged production and the company is a great turnaround story as well. That gives us a double attractive benefit as an investment vehicle.

ALI MOORE: As you say you're completely unhedged, you've unwound that hedge book, are you comfortable with that position?

ARTHUR HOOD: Absolutely. Yes, debt free and $200 million in the bank and a very strong production profile, growth profile over the next few months.

ALI MOORE: Debt free, ungeared, good growth profile. Takeover prospect?

ARTHUR HOOD: That's not something I have to worry about. My main role is to make sure we get value in our share price for our shareholders.

ALI MOORE: Has anyone come knocking?

ARTHUR HOOD: No, not yet.

ALI MOORE: Would you expect it?

ARTHUR HOOD: I don't think so, no.

ALI MOORE: Why not?

ARTHUR HOOD: I think we've got a great growth profile and we're getting the value into our share price.

My concern is not what other companies are thinking. There's always lots of talk and it always keeps interests going in the investment community.

ALI MOORE: But you ignore it?

ARTHUR HOOD: Absolutely. We just concentrate on our business.

ALI MOORE: Arthur Hood, many thanks for your time.

[airedale]

Hi, JB, LGL still looking strong and this may be a good time to top up.

Discl: Holding LGL

[The Great Gold Guru]

Today is the day my son , your time has come .... go and venture into places only your imagination has dreamt of , yes indeed , your time has come ....

Disc hold the following Gold Stocks

Oxiana
Dominion Mining
Lihir Gold
Perseus Mining
Avoca Resources
Ramelius Resources
Navigator Resources

Gold +$12.50 HUI + 7% !!!!

[The Great Gold Guru]

Forgot one of my gold stocks .... Equigold .... up a cool 9.6% today , how could I be so forgetful !!

The time is near ..... buy gold ....

[The Great Gold Guru]

Could see some nice moves today for gold stocks ... Oxiana may be a standout as copper had its biggest jump for 3 months last night as well as gold up $9 ...

No printing press has yet been invented to "make" gold ... unlike $$$$

[The Great Gold Guru]

LGL 379 ... up 20% over the last few weeks
DOM 340 ... up 15% over recent weeks
OXR 367 ... up 10% over recent weeks

Buy Gold .... the USD is phucked !!!

[The Great Gold Guru]

Gold at multi decade highs o/n ... silver up huge as well
USD being aggressively sold with very little support , both technically and fundamentally ( the Chinese Central Bank has lost many many billions of $ in the last few days on their USD holdings , they were told to buy more gold at $660 when the USD was around 81.5-82 .... big mistake ignoring that advise !! )

All good Aussie gold stocks should push higher today ... and for the rest of the year, most still represent excellent value.

PS ... check out the HUI index in US ... was under 300 a few months ago , zoomed over 400 last night , spectacular stuff !!

Buy Gold ... the USD is TOAST !!!!! T I M B E R !!!!

[MrDevine]

hey ggg, do you still hold aar. its had a big push past couple of days, looking interesting again. i took off a small parcel post correction, as i think there still may be more rumblings to come. however is pleasing to see interest in aar again.

mr d.

[The Great Gold Guru]

Sold my small holding at 9c ... see they hit 10c today , I made a nice 25% profit inside a few weeks, was happy with that. Good luck to holders.

[tobo]

[QUOTE=The Great Gold Guru;165818]Buy Gold ... the USD is TOAST !!!!! QUOTE]

But gold is measured in USD, so if USD drops, gold is gonna go up somewhat without real increase.
Not sure what index to measure USD drop to work out a real gold increase(do they have a TWI? or should it be interest rate foregone?),
but gold is clearly more than offsetting USD drop:
$650 to $730 : 12% increase already
LGL : more than 12%
some other gold minows : still waiting for the kick

[The Great Gold Guru]

Hope all Lihir holders are smiling this weekend , your stock hit a record high yesterday at $4.34 and gold was up a whopping $15 last night so some more fireworks to be expected on Monday. The stock traded sideways for a few weeks in August around the 305-315 level and even dropped to 280 during the sub-prime sell-off ... great returns of 40-50% inside 10 weeks , can't complain about that.

The USD is absolutely doomed to MUCH MUCH lower levels , I think gold will be over $1000/oz sometime in 2008. If the Fed cuts again in the next few weeks then gold will take out the much talked about $850 highs prior to Christmas. Lihir and other quality gold stocks are headed in only one direction , you don't need to be a rocket scientist to guess which way ! Watch out also when oil hits $100bbl ... you think the Saudi's and Russians want more collapsing USD .... No !! they want something of REAL value .... something you can't make more of by cranking up the printing presses !!

YOU MUST BUY GOLD !!!!!

[macduffy]

GGG

Do you have a view on the respective merits of Lihir and Oxiana?
Not knowing much about either, I tend to favour Oxiana for its more diversified operations, metals, locations. Lihir is a "purer" gold play but more volatile because of that?

[Viking]

• Operating profit before tax of $195.9 million, up 25% from $156.2 million in the prior year.
• Net loss of $24.1 million following one-off charges associated with the financial restructuring of the company completed in the first half of the year.
• Operating cash flow of $106.5 million compared to $60.6 million in the prior year.
• Revenues of $498.4 million, up 29% from $386.0million in the prior year.
• Total cash costs were $305/oz for the year, compared with $297/oz for the 12 months to December 2006.

Outlook
• Production for 2008 to increase to between 740,000-820,000 ounces, including approximately
40,000-50,000 oz from Ballarat.
• Total cash costs per ounce for the full year expected to be less than $350/oz.
• Solid improvement in full year earnings.

This result is looking quite satisfying~ :D

DISC: HOLD

[skyhigh]

anyone got any thoughts on the proposed merger with equilgold, good or bad

[suntboy]

Ask the Guru
GGG Where are you......

[shasta]

Ask the Guru
GGG Where are you......

No mention of LGL on ST for a while? (LGL current SP $A1.75)

Am just reading there half year results ;)

http://www.lglgold.com/data/portal/00000005/content/16643001219098445646.pdf

What caught my attention was forecast gold production for FY08 was for approx 850,000/oz (FY09 looking like 1.0m+/oz ;))

Cash costs below $US400/oz...:eek:

Lets "assume" they receive $US800/oz average for there Gold, & cash costs are $US400/oz, thats an impressive $US340m Gross Profit.

Downside is there hedging losses totalling over $150m to be written off over the next 3 years (note these are "non cash" items).

Not a "cheap" stock if you compare it's PER to say DOM, but LGL is a large scale gold producer (whereas DOM is in the 100k/oz p.a 2nd tier).

Look out when Gold surges back past $US1000/oz & beyond :eek:

[shasta]

No mention of LGL on ST for a while? (LGL current SP $A1.75)

Am just reading there half year results ;)

http://www.lglgold.com/data/portal/00000005/content/16643001219098445646.pdf

What caught my attention was forecast gold production for FY08 was for approx 850,000/oz (FY09 looking like 1.0m+/oz ;))

Cash costs below $US400/oz...:eek:

Lets "assume" they receive $US800/oz average for there Gold, & cash costs are $US400/oz, thats an impressive $US340m Gross Profit.

Downside is there hedging losses totalling over $150m to be written off over the next 3 years (note these are "non cash" items).

Not a "cheap" stock if you compare it's PER to say DOM, but LGL is a large scale gold producer (whereas DOM is in the 100k/oz p.a 2nd tier).

Look out when Gold surges back past $US1000/oz & beyond :eek:

Seems a while ago i posted the above...

Have bought into LGL, now for the shiny stuff to soar :D

Note the Gold price now to what i posted above & yet the cash costs have remained the same!

[Corporate]

Seems a while ago i posted the above...

Have bought into LGL, now for the shiny stuff to soar :D

Note the Gold price now to what i posted above & yet the cash costs have remained the same!

haha Shasta - thats why the SP has also doubled (almost)

[shasta]

haha Shasta - thats why the SP has also doubled (almost)

I'm hoping it doubles again :D

LGL on track to produce 300k+ per quarter, with a cash margin inexcess of $US500/oz, big reserve base, long life mines & no rush to have to explore.

The raising of funds earlier in the year, bought out the hedging & now LGL is fully exposed to the PoG...;)

How long before GOLD breaches the $US1,000/oz mark :confused:

[srotherh]

I'm hoping it doubles again :D

LGL on track to produce 300k+ per quarter, with a cash margin inexcess of $US500/oz, big reserve base, long life mines & no rush to have to explore.

The raising of funds earlier in the year, bought out the hedging & now LGL is fully exposed to the PoG...;)

How long before GOLD breaches the $US1,000/oz mark :confused:

Shasta
Are they 100% clear of hedging?

[shasta]

Shasta
Are they 100% clear of hedging?

Yes & no, they have closed out there hedging, but accounting rules mean they have to write down the losses over the lifetime of the original hedge (these are all non cash transactions), rather confusing!

Seems there was some hedging acquired thru the Equigold merger :confused:

http://www.lglgold.com/data/portal/00000005/content/16643001219098445646.pdf

Pages 7 & 8 detail all the hedging forward committments

[Junior80]

Shasta, wondering how long do you anticipate to hold LGL and where do you think the price will go to?

[shasta]

Shasta, wondering how long do you anticipate to hold LGL and where do you think the price will go to?

While the PoG remains strong & the LGL chart confirms this...;)

My personal opinion is that Gold will surge past $US1000/oz this year maybe reaching $US1200-1250/oz before a retracement.

It's hard to put a target price on a company with a ~$A7b market cap.

But if LGL can produce 300k/oz per quarter @ a gross profit margin of $US500/oz, thats $US600m gross profit margin per annum.

Less indirect costs, non cash hedging losses, tax, D&A etc, lets say there profit is $US300m, @ AUD/USD 0.8 = $A375m

With ~2.3b shares on issue & @ $3.13, with a market cap around $A7b that would put LGL on a forward P/E of ~19.

ASB Sec has forecast 2010 figures for LGL as:

EPS 16.1cps (would indicate around $A370m profit after tax ;))
P/E 19.4

So my rough calc's are about the same as ASB Sec's.

P/E comparions:

NEM currently 22.2 (no forward P/E figures given)
NCM 2010 forward P/E 24.3
AGG couldn't find any forward P/E figures

So for a large cap stock, a P/E range of 20-25 seems justified for a large gold producer (1m+/oz per year), i wonder if anyone has calculated an EV on the big gold majors based on reserves?

$A370m profit x 20-25 = 7400m - 9250m/2300m = $SP 3.20 - $4.00

So we are around the lower end of the range, which suggests the market has factored in the expected 2010 profit.

LGL has to surprise the market with a profit upgrade, or announce something significant to justify a SP over $4 IMO.

Of course increased production/reduction of costs which makes the gross profit/cash margin increase could well do this, & that's what i'm guessing will happen.

LGL generates large cashflows, so will be interesting to see what they do with them too.

[dragonz]

This stock is starting to look a tad oversold !

[STRAT]

This stock is starting to look a tad oversold !Hi Dragonz,
Why do you say that with the RSI at 42.5 and no substantial increase in volume in the recent fall?

[dragonz]

Hi Dragonz,
Why do you say that with the RSI at 42.5 and no substantial increase in volume in the recent fall?

Hi Strat

Just looking at the williams% 14 day -80/-20. I use this as an indicator for my short term swing trades. It works best for stocks that are in a confirmed uptrend or 1st pull back after a 10sma/30ema crossover. Normaly its best to wait until the williams indicator has crossed the -80 then started to move back towards the -80 line. Also best to use when the market is bullish. Another words 10 MA above 30MA and for stocks above the long term trend (200ma).

This used in conjunction with identifiying bullish candle setups with voloumes can sometimes get you somewhere near the bottom or beginning of the upward swing. HZN is probaly a better example. I have purchased shares in both this arvo

[dragonz]

Hi Dragonz,
Why do you say that with the RSI at 42.5 and no substantial increase in volume in the recent fall?

26 million shares sold in its last day of sell-off. The V 20ma is 20 million so there was a 30% above average . Not substantial but significant and probaly eneough to shake out those bearish in the stock. Time will tell of course and its just down to probabilities. :D

[STRAT]

26 million shares sold in its last day of sell-off. The V 20ma is 20 million so there was a 30% above average . Not substantial but significant and probaly eneough to shake out those bearish in the stock. Time will tell of course and its just down to probabilities. :DThanks Dragonz,
It occured to me after I posted that this was a day traders observation :D

[airedale]

The only reason that I hold LGL...or any other gold company... is because I am bullish/positive on the POG. I believe that the printing of " money " by the fed will increase the value of gold.
After POG breaks through $US1,000 what then? Who knows?

[shasta]

The only reason that I hold LGL...or any other gold company... is because I am bullish/positive on the POG. I believe that the printing of " money " by the fed will increase the value of gold.
After POG breaks through $US1,000 what then? Who knows?

With the LGL SP slipping & the PoG also down overnight, i'm reviewing my holding in LGL.

The oil & gas sector seems to have better opportunities & more undervalued companies than the gold sector.

I'm sitting in a small loss situation & wanna make sure it's only a small loss.

[JBmurc]

With the LGL SP slipping & the PoG also down overnight, i'm reviewing my holding in LGL.

The oil & gas sector seems to have better opportunities & more undervalued companies than the gold sector.

I'm sitting in a small loss situation & wanna make sure it's only a small loss.

Your having a bad run of late mate don't allow T/A to overrun Fundamentals LGL is a great longer term investment just remember ROC

[upside_umop]

i havent looked into these 'gold' stocks much..but can someone explain to me how a PE of 19 is justified for these big stocks? sure they might be sitting on big reserves, but arent we in it for the cashflow?

[STRAT]

i havent looked into these 'gold' stocks much..but can someone explain to me how a PE of 19 is justified for these big stocks? sure they might be sitting on big reserves, but arent we in it for the cashflow?Seems to me that the Market has no clue as to what this one is worth. Surely there are easier ways to try and make a buck

[winner69]

Strat ... chart doesn't look all that good does it.

Gold producers rely on the leverage of increasing gold prices to improve margins on the assumption that cash costs remain pretty fixed and he current price of LGL seems to reflect a gold price higher than it is today

On 1.1 mill oz production if gold goes up US$200 oz in simple terms that an extra US$220m cash flow for LGL .... which could put a $1 on the LGL shareprice. Maybe thats what Shasta is getting at and wants to partake in

However with a market cap in excess of $7 billion maybe even all these good prospects are already built into the share price.

I see Huntleys have them as a SELL

[Mick100]

With the LGL SP slipping & the PoG also down overnight, i'm reviewing my holding in LGL.

The oil & gas sector seems to have better opportunities & more undervalued companies than the gold sector.

I'm sitting in a small loss situation & wanna make sure it's only a small loss.


Shasta - I think you should ask yourself why you bought this share in the first place. I can understand when traders, using TA, buy a share then sell a it a couple of weeks later but for someone who claims to rely on FA for buy/sell decisions then buying and selling in a period of a couple of weeks simply dose'nt add up (the fundermentals don't change that quickly) Makes me wonder if you really believe, in all your flashy fundermental analysis, yourself

ps - this pullback in gold is likely to be shallow and short lived

[shasta]

Shasta - I think you should ask yourself why you bought this share in the first place. I can understand when traders, using TA, buy a share then sell a it a couple of weeks later but for someone who claims to rely on FA for buy/sell decisions then buying and selling in a period of a couple of weeks simply dose'nt add up (the fundermentals don't change that quickly) Makes me wonder if you really believe, in all your flashy fundermental analysis, yourself

ps - this pullback in gold is likely to be shallow and short lived

I am asking myself that very question Mick!

If you refer to Strat's chart (post #47), i bought in at $3.30.

At that time Gold was travelling nicely & so was LGL, the chart indicated this was going higher, well it didn't :confused:

Subsequent to this the LGL SP/Chart has deteriorated, & the PoG has cooled.

Now i did set a stop loss at $2.99, & not wanting to be thrown out too soon on some false signals, i removed this (not a smart move!) :eek:

I'm actually trying to use both TA & FA with my buy/sell decisions, but i'm mindful that i don't want to be holding stocks going down!

What if gold does head south, do you expect me to hold this all the way down? (LGL would be a TA sell now!)

Not sure what part of my fundmental analysis is "flashy", i try to present the facts along with my opinion, & yes that does mean crunching a few numbers along the way.

I bought in at the lower end of the range i calculated, & saw more upside with the PoG going higher.

I may have got it wrong & my timing may have been lousy, but i'm not going too allow a small loss to become a bigger one!

JBMurc was on the money, i'm having rather mixed results at the moment!

[STRAT]

If you refer to Strat's chart (post #47), !Hi Shasta,
The thing that struck me was the way this one continues to gap up and down. Very hard to read.

[shasta]

Hi Shasta,
The thing that struck me was the way this one continues to gap up and down. Very hard to read.

Well i'm not waiting around for the SP to diminish further while i try & "2nd guess" what LGL may do!

Murphy's law probably means when i sell LGL, gold will surge $US100/oz in a day, & LGL will sail past $5 :D

[Phaedrus]

(Advice to Shasta) Don't allow T/A to overrun Fundamentals....I'd like to take the opposite view here and encourage Shasta not to let Fundamentals overun T/A! Over the long term (1 year+) and over the short term (3 months) gold has been flat. Over similar time periods, LGL has been flat - or falling. There are no buy signals. Why would Shasta want to hold a stock that is currently going nowhere?


.... LGL is a great longer term investment. Only time will tell. It certainly has been a very poor longterm investment up to now. The price is what it was back in 2006. If/when the market finally agrees with you as to the "true worth" of LGL, the price will begin to rise. Are you are buying/holding a poorly performing stock for fear of missing out on the possibity of a rise in the future?


....Just remember ROCJBM, you don't say why Shasta should remember ROC. My guess is that you saw it as a stock with good fundamentals that had been unfairly beaten down by an ignorant market. A stock that would eventually reward longterm holders. A stock that (finally) reaped handsome gains for those with the insight to see its potential and the patience to wait for its inevitable re-rating. Those with such views would most certainly NOT allow T/A to overrun fundamentals!

Now lets look at the chart. Regardless of the fundamentals, ROC was in a very clear downtrend, with a confirmed trendline in place. Buy signals were eventually triggered when this trendline was broken and when ROC broke above previous resistance at 38 cents. These signals triggered on the same day. There was plenty of time (over a month!) to buy at good prices before ROC really took off.

http://h1.ripway.com/78963/ROC615.gif

In short, I agree that Shasta really should remember ROC. He should remember :-
(1) Not to buy (or hold) a downtrending stock - no matter how good the fundamentals may be.
(2) Not to allow FA to overrun TA!

[JBmurc]

Everyone has different investment methods- Pheahus -currently I'm up $25,000 on what my portfilo value was at the start of 2008
The funds I've invested for others current at 10 months is up 28%
Now do a chart on the ASX over this time...still I really wish I sold down before the start of the bear market as I'd have made a packet by now,still you live an you learn..I still like T/A just not at much as F/A ...the Tech boom for one would be one boom that was run by T/A than F/A

Gold = true money we'll see $2000oz before $600 IMHO this is bullish long term for producers

By the way I don't hold LGL my gold interests stocks are TRY,IRN,CFE (sold CTO for 12% week profit)

What shares to you own Phaedrus???

[shasta]

I'd like to take the opposite view here and encourage Shasta not to let Fundamentals overun T/A! Over the long term (1 year+) and over the short term (3 months) gold has been flat. Over similar time periods, LGL has been flat - or falling. There are no buy signals. Why would Shasta want to hold a stock that is currently going nowhere?

Only time will tell. It certainly has been a very poor longterm investment up to now. The price is what it was back in 2006. If/when the market finally agrees with you as to the "true worth" of LGL, the price will begin to rise. Are you are buying/holding a poorly performing stock for fear of missing out on the possibity of a rise in the future?

JBM, you don't say why Shasta should remember ROC. My guess is that you saw it as a stock with good fundamentals that had been unfairly beaten down by an ignorant market. A stock that would eventually reward longterm holders. A stock that (finally) reaped handsome gains for those with the insight to see its potential and the patience to wait for its inevitable re-rating. Those with such views would most certainly NOT allow T/A to overrun fundamentals!

Now lets look at the chart. Regardless of the fundamentals, ROC was in a very clear downtrend, with a confirmed trendline in place. Buy signals were eventually triggered when this trendline was broken and when ROC broke above previous resistance at 38 cents. These signals triggered on the same day. There was plenty of time (over a month!) to buy at good prices before ROC really took off.

http://h1.ripway.com/78963/ROC615.gif

In short, I agree that Shasta really should remember ROC. He should remember :-
(1) Not to buy (or hold) a downtrending stock - no matter how good the fundamentals may be.
(2) Not to allow FA to overrun TA!

I'm out of LGL, chart looks too weak, & i got in at the wrong time...

As for ROC, i got out at a small loss & have recouped that with BPT ;)

[tricha]

I'm out of LGL, chart looks too weak, & i got in at the wrong time...

As for ROC, i got out at a small loss & have recouped that with BPT ;)

Typical gold miner :(

Lihir Gold says it will write down the value of its Ballarat mine by as much as $441 million after disappointing production at the Victorian operation

[Phaedrus]

What shares do you own Phaedrus???In Australia? Not a lot at the moment. My only holdings of any significant size are DYL, JBH and PRC.
Why do you feel the need to ask such a question?
This debate is about the relative merits of FA and TA as applied to LHG - whether it would be better for Shasta to hold LHG on the basis of FA or sell it on the basis of TA. The identities of stocks that I own are irrelevant to this discussion.

[JBmurc]

In Australia? Not a lot at the moment. My only holdings of any significant size are DYL, JBH and PRC.
Why do you feel the need to ask such a question?
This debate is about the relative merits of FA and TA as applied to LHG - whether it would be better for Shasta to hold LHG on the basis of FA or sell it on the basis of TA. The identities of stocks that I own are irrelevant to this discussion.

Just wondering I just noticed you don't seem outside T/A to have much F/A veiws on any shares I've read.

LGL
Only time will tell. It certainly has been a very poor longterm investment up to now.

Well going from my above chart LGL has been a great long term hold 4yrs+ mid-term pretty average ,short term is really depends on when you brought it your chart of 1yr 2.5months shows this..If your'd brought at the Sept Oct Nov 08 lows I'm sure even you would be happy with the 40%+ growth...

I have nothing against T/A or your great work,just a different point of view to how much T/A affects what I hold n sell .

[STRAT]

If your'd brought at the Sept Oct Nov 08 lows I'm sure even you would be happy with the 40%+ growth...
.Hi JB,
Actually I wouldnt be. The one or two stocks I bought at that time and it took considerable guts to do so are lookin way way way better than that. :D

[JBmurc]

Hi JB,
Actually I wouldnt be. The one or two stocks I bought at that time and it took considerable guts to do so are lookin way way way better than that. :D

Yeah for sure I reinvested over $400,000 during the time smaller caps have made some massive gains ,still we'll taking about a 6+ billion $ company here 40%+ on the short term isn't to be sneezed at..

[tricha]

In Australia? Not a lot at the moment. My only holdings of any significant size are DYL, JBH and PRC.
Why do you feel the need to ask such a question?
This debate is about the relative merits of FA and TA as applied to LHG - whether it would be better for Shasta to hold LHG on the basis of FA or sell it on the basis of TA. The identities of stocks that I own are irrelevant to this discussion.

Hmm u finally let a cat out of the bag, Pike River Coal.

I would not touch this one, due to it's a very high risk operation, Better off with NZO to reduce the risk and have a better spread of assets.

i do not even think stop losses, could save u if the risk I perceive could happen. :(

PRCPike River Coal Limited FPO NZhttp://www.stocknessmonster.com/images/australia.gif http://www.stocknessmonster.com/chart/stockness/hist2/ASX/PRC/3m/line/30/0/ Line Type LineCandlestickOHLCPercent Period 1 Month2 Months3 Months6 Months1 Year2 Years5 Years10 Years
Moving Average 1 5 day10 day30 day60 day90 day120 dayNone
Moving Average 2 10 day30 day60 day90 day120 day180 dayNone



http://www.stocknessmonster.com/images/null.gif
http://www.stocknessmonster.com/images/menu_quicktools.gif

[Dusty]

Apart from massive Ballarat write down underlying profit up 130% from corresponding period last year to $154.9m.
Resources upgrade, Estimates Lihir now at 43 million and total annual production for 09 between 1m-1.2m, Lihir one of the world largest open pit resources.
Total cash costs stikll expected to be under $400 an ounce even with the rise of the Aussie dollar.
In regards to my novice charting skills, breakout of trendline today from beginning of June 09 high, with RSI(14) and Williams R crossing rising along with OBV and directional movement confirming the strength of the trend.
What do you reckon now Shasta, fundamentals still looking good and chart may show a better entry point may be now. Depending on where you think Gold is heading, in my opinion north of $1000 by the end of the year with continuation triangle formed with gold USD chart and whether the Inflationary/Deflationary arguement wins gold will be a good place to be especially with a great economical 40 year resource under their belt.

sp at 2.74 currently.

http://imagesignal.comsec.com.au/asxdata/20090826/pdf/00981086.pdf

[Dusty]

Wanted to upload chart so you guys could let me know what your thoughts were but can't seem to fit forum specifications and don't have the time to keep working at it this moment but will try again later

[shasta]

Wanted to upload chart so you guys could let me know what your thoughts were but can't seem to fit forum specifications and don't have the time to keep working at it this moment but will try again later

LGL may be on the turn around, well spotted.

I too believe Gold will end the year over $1,000 - but how it gets there meantime, who knows?

Question being, is Lihir "cheap" & likely to trend up...

LGL appears oversold, so watch for the volume :rolleyes:

http://www.directbroking.co.nz/cgi-bin/sparkle.dll/superchart?template=dblsuperchart&session=0&instrument=LGL&exchange=ASX&period=6M&adj=yes&vs=LINE&ct=CANDLE&compi=&ma1=30&ma2=90&bb=&ind=RSI&ra=2

[airedale]

Hi Shasta, LGL volume of 40 million today, which is well up to the top end of past trades.
Re POG...everyone is watching mesmerised {well I am at least} for gold to go to $1,000/oz. Meanwhile it is 5% or $50 short of that target. It is like watching a coiled spring..
As for LGL ...yes definitely worth topping up, or a quick trade, depends on your style.
Discl: Holding LGL

[Junior80]

I think there maybe a breakout happening here. Bought these a few months ago at $3.10 but have watched it fal to about $2.50. Last week or so has since saw this stock get back up to around my buy-in price. With gold set to break $1000 an ounce, I think there may be more upside to this stock. OBV has changed direction and there has been an increase in volume as well.

http://i696.photobucket.com/albums/vv327/yknot80/lgl.png
http://i696.photobucket.com/albums/vv327/yknot80/lgl2.png

[elZorro]

LGL considering a merger with another huge miner, share has climbed $1 in a day or two. Massive money going in.

[elZorro]

I'm keeping a watch on LGL - in the last 3 months its share has behaved like OGC, following the price of gold but ending up slightly the worse for wear. MCap is 10x that of OGC, around $10 Billion. However, its annual production is only 4x that of OGC's, although it has 30Moz of gold in the ground (over NZ$50Billion worth at spot). It is merging with Newmont, will soon delist from the TSX, stays on the ASX.

See what I mean about the price multiples from gold turnover (GP). They are all over the place.