SUM - Summerset Group

[Exodia]

tree fiddy.........interesting to see how long it lasts.
Nice to see it hit $3.50 briefly, bought in at $2.91

[Food4Thought]

Anyone been on a plane lately and noticed the average age of those flying into NZ, and those flying out? $3.50 forward looking is cheap.

The NZ retirment sector is no where near the peaks that it will reach in the future. Economy doing bad? Let in some well skilled wealthy foreigners to retire and live the good life there.

I hope people in this industry keep considering the words health and care in "health care equipment and services provider".


Nice to see it hit $3.50 briefly, bought in at $2.91.

At a guess, a price of $4.50 in 3 years is highly likely.
My guesses have been rather accurate since I started looking into companies and following them. *best return to my glass orb for more insight*.

[Wolf]

Anyone been on a plane lately and noticed the average age of those flying into NZ, and those flying out? $3.50 forward looking is cheap.

The NZ retirment sector is no where near the peaks that it will reach in the future. Economy doing bad? Let in some well skilled wealthy foreigners to retire and live the good life there.

I hope people in this industry keep considering the words health and care in "health care equipment and services provider".

.

At a guess, a price of $4.50 in 3 years is highly likely.
My guesses have been rather accurate since I started looking into companies and following them. *best return to my glass orb for more insight*.

$3.50 forward looking cheap based on what?

A price of $4.50 in 3 years implies a CAGR of 8.74%... So should hope so at least. How do you arrive at that figure?

[BlackPeter]

$3.50 forward looking cheap based on what?

A price of $4.50 in 3 years implies a CAGR of 8.74%... So should hope so at least. How do you arrive at that figure?

Did you look at any stage into SUM's financials? Their revenue increased from 25m (in 2009) to 54.3m (in 2014). In my books this equates to a CAGR of 16.8%. So - what exactly is wrong with F4T's prediction? Sure - nobody knows the future, but based on the Graham formula you even might call it "somewhat conservative ...."

Discl: holding and - as always - DYOR ...

[Harvey Specter]

Did you look at any stage into SUM's financials? I think he is implying $4.50 isn't that impressive as it is 'only' a 8.74% return.

[couta1]

Meanwhile Sum sneaks to a 52wk high, good for all you holders:cool:

[Exodia]

I'm up over 20% in less than a year so happy days and SUM seems be flying under everyones' radar!

[Food4Thought]

I will be delighted if SUM reaches $4.50 (yet not surprised), and anything above, ecstatic. I don't chase for a bigger growth than 8.5% yearly average. Normally the lower expectations pay off. I arrived at $4.50 by drawing some pictures and making a few lines.

[theace]

She sure is on the rise!

[silu]

What just happened this morning? +4.7% on light volume and hardly any sellers?

[couta1]

HitHit $3.75 which would equal their all time high seems a lack of supply driving price up at the moment. Next Quarter metrics due out in a couple of weeks will be interesting to see if momentum of previous 2 quarters continuing.

[Bjauck]

Quite a price jump this morning. Maybe some small buyers are expecting big things?

[Food4Thought]

Quite a price jump this morning. Maybe some small buyers are expecting big things?

In the long run, it is a company many large investors want a piece of. Small time holders are in for a good ride if they can sit out the bumps. Results will keep steady with the increase in demand. Lower NZ dollar will help boost overseas buying in as now the improvement is 20% compared to only a few months ago in dollar terms. The sector is renowned for customers with money (slow to spend it, but they have to), so unless demand drops and supply increases, things look good. I have a funny feeling SUM will reach $3.77. Hasn't had a proper run in some time.

[troyvdh]

...all 3 retirement entities will continue to flourish...as long as house prices continue to either increase or flat line...just saying....

[Carpenterjoe]

...all 3 retirement entities will continue to flourish...as long as house prices continue to either increase or flat line...just saying....

Your on to it, with nearing a billion in land assets every percent counts.

[couta1]

Good to see that lack of dementia really isn't making any difference to the company's profitability, nor the market's perception of same.

Similarly, good to see that the move to fully in-house development has been the disaster that many - quite ridiculously - argued I never got involved with the in-house debate but re lack of dementia care, how do you know the company couldn't be doing better still if they catered for it? If your child is hungry you feed it, you don't send it down the road to your neighbours house to get fed. Besides still early days in the exploding demographic of dementia increase.

[Bjauck]

I never got involved with the in-house debate but re lack of dementia care, how do you know the company couldn't be doing better still if they catered for it? If your child is hungry you feed it, you don't send it down the road to your neighbours house to get fed. Besides still early days in the exploding demographic of dementia increase.
I don't know about dementia care specifically, but I know of a resident who had a unit in a village with an on-site rest home and hospital wing. The resident needed to go into the rest home but as there was no vacancy she had to find a rest home elsewhere. I imagine hers would not be an isolated case. Many residents when they need rest home care would need it urgently (such as after a fall, accident or illness) so the fact that the village where you have a unit also has extra care facilities would count for not much at all, if there is no vacancy when you need it and you are not in a position to wait.

[couta1]

I don't know about dementia care specifically, but I know of a resident who had a unit in a village with an on-site rest home and hospital wing. The resident needed to go into the rest home but as there was no vacancy she had to find a rest home elsewhere. I imagine hers would not be an isolated case. Many residents when they need rest home care would need it urgently (such as after a fall, accident or illness) so the fact that the village where you have a unit also has extra care facilities would count for not much at all, if there is no vacancy when you need it and you are not in a position to wait. Many villages now offer rest home level care in their serviced apartments so no vacancy or move necessary, in fact rest home occupancies are in decline being overtaken by hospital and dementia level demand,many rest homes are half full of hospital and dementia residents now ,they keep them there as long as they can and in the case of dementia until the individual becomes too difficult to handle or too aggressive toward staff and/or other residents. Ten years from now I'm predicting that dementia demand will be equal to or exceed hospital beds so Sums reluctance to build dementia units is plain shortsighted , however I reckon they will change their current stance over the next few years so watch this space.

[percy]

Many villages now offer rest home level care in their serviced apartments so no vacancy or move necessary, in fact rest home occupancies are in decline being overtaken by hospital and dementia level demand,many rest homes are half full of hospital and dementia residents now ,they keep them there as long as they can and in the case of dementia until the individual becomes too difficult to handle or too aggressive toward staff and/or other residents. Ten years from now I'm predicting that dementia demand will be equal to or exceed hospital beds so Sums reluctance to build dementia units is plain shortsighted , however I reckon they will change their current stance over the next few years so watch this space.

Supply/demand. Once demand goes up, SUM will add supply.
No problem,with more and more design,development,building being done inhouse.

[Baa_Baa]

People get old, our fathers and our mothers, they move into retirement villages, we get that. What follows though is what SUM need to focus on. Some pour souls lose their faculties, others lose their health, worse even, some lose both. Even worse than that though, is some suffer either or both before they are old, not that they would know about it. Late-life, and early needy residents require health-providers who administer these pathways to accommodate all eventualities. This is an opportunity, to provide care, not a problem to be avoided. There is little that is more tragic and debilitating than for the aged who become infirmed, or the unfortunate, to have to be forced to leave their post-retirement / early late-life surroundings and be moved to a strange and uncomfortable existence in some other establishment. Does SUM get this? Are they missing the point? that late-life care of the infirmed, which almost all are in some way, is very profitable while at the same time very consoling and comforting to the resident and the bill payer -usually the one who has EPA.

[Bjauck]

Many villages now offer rest home level care in their serviced apartments so no vacancy or move necessary...
That is fine if the resident had bought a licence to occupy one of the serviced apartments, provided that the resident in their apartment can be adequately attended to. What proportion of licences to occupy are for serviced apartments in the various villages?

It would be good if rest home level care could extend to all the free standing and non-serviced units in the complex too. Maybe with tech. advances it could become possible to provide improved remote monitoring/communication coupled with round the clock visits.

[couta1]

Bjauck rest home level care is available to those without a licence to occupy also until a bed becomes available in the rest home itself.

[Bjauck]

I understand that village rest homes are open to others, who have not already got a licence to occupy in the same village.

Are you also saying that, in some villages, someone who has a licence to occupy an unserviced unit, could move into a serviced apartment (if available) with rest home level care as a temporary measure (on a rental basis?), until there was a vacancy in the village rest home? That would certainly be an extra attraction for a village. Which companies/villages currently offer that facility?

[Beagle]

People get old, our fathers and our mothers, they move into retirement villages, we get that. What follows though is what SUM need to focus on. Some pour souls lose their faculties, others lose their health, worse even, some lose both. Even worse than that though, is some suffer either or both before they are old, not that they would know about it. Late-life, and early needy residents require health-providers who administer these pathways to accommodate all eventualities. This is an opportunity, to provide care, not a problem to be avoided. There is little that is more tragic and debilitating than for the aged who become infirmed, or the unfortunate, to have to be forced to leave their post-retirement / early late-life surroundings and be moved to a strange and uncomfortable existence in some other establishment. Does SUM get this? Are they missing the point? that late-life care of the infirmed, which almost all are in some way, is very profitable while at the same time very consoling and comforting to the resident and the bill payer -usually the one who has EPA.

Very well said. When I was down in Chch recently Percy showed Noodles and I around one of Ryman's facilities there, summing it up, its in another league compared to what SUM does. SUM's development margins still nothing like RYM or MET's..both in the 21% plus league. My good mate Norah is right, SUM as a company is just a teenager coming of age, still with a heck of a lot to learn.
Disc - Own RYM and MET.

[couta1]

I understand that village rest homes are open to others, who have not already got a licence to occupy in the same village.

Are you also saying that, in some villages, someone who has a licence to occupy an unserviced unit, could move into a serviced apartment (if available) with rest home level care as a temporary measure (on a rental basis?), until there was a vacancy in the village rest home? That would certainly be an extra attraction for a village. Which companies/villages currently offer that facility? Its makes no difference whether a person currently owns an independent apartment(With a licence to occupy) or a serviced apartment(With a licence to occupy) or comes from the community and needs rest home level care, if there is no rest home bed/s available then in any of the 3 situations mentioned the person can receive rest home level care in a serviced apartment in a Ryman facility until a bed becomes available in the rest home section. It also doesn't make any difference whether the person is fully private paying or receives a Govt subsidy in order to obtain this care, hope this helps.

[Bjauck]

Its makes no difference whether a person currently owns an independent apartment(With a licence to occupy) or a serviced apartment(With a licence to occupy) or comes from the community and needs rest home level care, if there is no rest home bed/s available then in any of the 3 situations mentioned the person can receive rest home level care in a serviced apartment in a Ryman facility until a bed becomes available in the rest home section. It also doesn't make any difference whether the person is fully private paying or receives a Govt subsidy in order to obtain this care, hope this helps.
A good service from Ryman indeed. I presume that temporary accommodation in the serviced apartment for both an "outsider" and a local resident would be charged at a "premium" to the Government rest home means-tested subsidy? I would have imagined that outsiders would just have been put on the waiting list, if there had been no room in the rest home itself.

[couta1]

And, IMHO, that's the ideal time to buy and hold a stock, not once its matured like RYM.
Hey NG Ryman are a long way off being mature in a growth sense it's just their management that are grown up.

[troyvdh]

Just saying...my neck is becoming a little crook....looking up...(much like CEN at 730).....at the SP...hope it doesn't worsen....just saying...

[couta1]

Just saying...my neck is becoming a little crook....looking up...(much like CEN at 730).....at the SP...hope it doesn't worsen....just saying...
Next 2 quarters metrics will determine if it stays up and continues to rise or reverts back to being a steam train stuck at the rail station for an extended stop.

[Food4Thought]

I haven't followed this post in depth for some time. Couta1, I am surprised you have sold? To me, indications are warm, that this stock is still to spring North. Perhaps a bit slower than expected, yet not much. Happy days ahead, I believe.

[PartyPooper]

Last time SUM got this high it proceeded to go into a downtrend to the 2.80 range. Still very weary

[couta1]

I haven't followed this post in depth for some time. Couta1, I am surprised you have sold? To me, indications are warm, that this stock is still to spring North. Perhaps a bit slower than expected, yet not much. Happy days ahead, I believe.
Combination of impatient with long stagnation phase plus other reasons , some directly to do with my own personal dislike of Sums direction in regards to their current continuum of care model. Holding a good number of Ryman currently who I believe will do well going forward(As they always have) especially now the Australian venture is going like wildfire.

[Food4Thought]

Last time SUM got this high it proceeded to go into a downtrend to the 2.80 range. Still very weary

I wish I had cash for this then at $2.80-$3.00. I would have sunk in some serious pennies. I remember Charlies, 42 below, BGR, RYM, AIR, , etc all having a serious tumble at some stage, recovering, and tumbling... and then... recovering to be much bigger...

Just as long as they don't do a Pumpkin Patch or Postie Plus.... or maybe a KMD (currently IMO sitting 25% lower than what they will reach)

Only time will tell

[Onion]

Comparing SP return for SUM, RYM and MET over the last wee while (rough figures from Yahoo), SUM doesn't appear too shabby.




SUM
RYM
MET


2yr
about +25%
about +25%
+50%


1yr
+5%
-7%
+5%


6mth
+25%
-7%
+2%

[winner69]

FY to be $34m compared to $24m last year

Wonders of a booming property market

We could get 550 plus sales this year

Looks like death rate creeping up

[Beagle]

FY to be $34m compared to $24m last year

Wonders of a booming property market

Never seen a finer example of the old cliché "a rising tide lifts all boats". I would comment on the skipper but I have an inkling you guys know my thoughts already :D

[percy]

FY to be $34m compared to $24m last year

Wonders of a booming property market

And an aging population which is getting older every day.!
Being in the right sector at the right time is very profitable for investors.!

[winner69]

But Roger ....share price will be over 4 bucks by end of week

They did sell a few more new ones than last year as well

[Beagle]

But Roger ....share price will be over 4 bucks by end of week

They did sell a few more new ones than last year as well

I'll bet you a few beers it won't be. The "quality" of what they're building underwhelms much like their....oh never mind.

[James108]

Does it mean sales from Wigram to be accrued in this quarter or in Q4?

[Beagle]

What was their eps growth last year ?

[NZSilver]

Bubble pops ryman, met and sum all going to feel it. That will be the time to buY

[trader_jackson]

Great result, already fully priced in of course, and to add to the 'interestingness' I wonder what will happen when the Auckland housing market stalls later this year (or it may have already begun according to barfoot and thompson)... At least Ryman have a heavy care focus, not quite as exposed as SUM... having said that SUM do have some very good quality villages...

When (not really and if) housing bubble in Auckland pops, I am looking forward to seeing ARV continue to rise while SUM gets hit hard

[percy]

Bubble pops ryman, met and sum all going to feel it. That will be the time to buY

This argument keeps coming up every couple of years.I note Craig's are great believers the property market drives the retirement village sector,while Simon Challies, of RYM does not.History has shown Challies is right.
My brother looked at buying a unit, and his approach about selling his house was "we will meet the market."
I believe "when Nanna needs to go into a village/care she needs to go now" and it does not matter what the property market is doing at that time.

[BlackPeter]

When (not really and if) housing bubble in Auckland pops, I am looking forward to seeing ARV continue to rise while SUM gets hit hard

Why would you say that? SUM has a lower exposure to the Auckland market than the others of the "big three".

And looking at Arvida ... what rise? I guess this would be for a different threat, but why would you think their shares have ever a chance to rise? Their margin is poor, they won't make money from property appreciation but have all the disadvantages of a labour intensive business run by underpaid staff and supporting a clientele with huge needs but little money to pay for it.

I guess - yes, I am giving as well money (donations) to church, Red Cross and Cancer Society (to name just a few), and they all do as well worthwhile social work. However - don't expect to get money back from them. ARV falls into the same category, even if they pretend to be a commercial enterprise. Some might make money with ARV, but unlikely in the long run the shareholders.

[percy]

Why would you say that? SUM has a lower exposure to the Auckland market than the others of the "big three".

And looking at Arvida ... what rise? I guess this would be for a different threat, but why would you think their shares have ever a chance to rise? Their margin is poor, they won't make money from property appreciation but have all the disadvantages of a labour intensive business run by underpaid staff and supporting a clientele with huge needs but little money to pay for it.

I guess - yes, I am giving as well money (donations) to church, Red Cross and Cancer Society (to name just a few), and they all do as well worthwhile social work. However - don't expect to get money back from them. ARV falls into the same category, even if they pretend to be a commercial enterprise. Some might make money with ARV, but unlikely in the long run the shareholders.

I concur.Exactly how I read it.

[Beagle]

that is irrelevant Roger. We are looking forward. What is Ryman's forward guidance? 15% underlying earnings growth? Cute.

Of course its relevant. Quite obviously they're hitting the ball out of the park "at present" with sales of their new Auckland villages all coming together in a sweet spot for the company but its their average earnings growth over a period of time that's necessary to justify lofty PE multiples. Anyway, horses for courses, I'm happy with my MET and RYM.

[gv1]

Big volumes going through...I wonder if SP will go any higher..thinking to getting in/not.

[percy]

Big volumes going through...I wonder if SP will go any higher..thinking to getting in/not.

Setting a new high is very positive,as is the out look,both for the sector and the company.
I would expect it has surprised a few analysts,so I would buy before they upgrade their projections.

[gv1]

Thankk youu Percy...cashup at the moment.

[winner69]

Does it mean sales from Wigram to be accrued in this quarter or in Q4?

"As previously signalled, we will be opening one new village this year. Wigram village will open in the fourth quarter of the year and will contribute to sales in this quarter.”

Sounds like they sell them (unconditional) this quarter with real opening after September

How big is this village?
.

[winner69]

Rolling 4 quarter sales are now 533 - 341 new and 192 resales.

At this rate they will hit 600 for the full year with new sales totalling 370

No wonder they confident of saying $34m underlying for the year.

The way the property prices are going I reckon real profit of $80m at least

That's 37 cents a share .....easily justifying a share price of $5 or more

Go your good thing

[Carpenterjoe]

Rolling 4 quarter sales are now 533 - 341 new and 192 resales.

At this rate they will hit 600 for the full year with new sales totalling 370

No wonder they confident of saying $34m underlying for the year.

The way the property prices are going I reckon real profit of $80m at least

That's 37 cents a share .....easily justifying a share price of $5 or more

Go your good thing

Numbers are growing, am I right in thinking cashflow statement will read inflows from sales somewhere around 180-210mil?

[ratkin]

Have to love the healthcare sector, the gift that keeps on giving.

[Beagle]

Rolling 4 quarter sales are now 533 - 341 new and 192 resales.

At this rate they will hit 600 for the full year with new sales totalling 370

No wonder they confident of saying $34m underlying for the year.

The way the property prices are going I reckon real profit of $80m at least

That's 37 cents a share .....easily justifying a share price of $5 or more

Go your good thing

Underlying profit is all that counts in this sector. 15 cps after growing very slowly last year is not that spectacular.
I need to service my car next week, can I borrow your HUGE RAMP.

[couta1]

The latest results look good however doubling up first half numbers to get end of year numbers has many obstacles. New sales were 160 so double that is 320 but don't forget that 160 comes from 4 new villages coming on tap but in the second half they only have 1 new village coming online (Wigram a 250 resident facility) so lets say they get 140 in the next half will give them their targeted build rate of 300 units so no surprises there. What's really fattened up the numbers for them is the jump in resale units but as we know from last year these are fickle and seasonal and I can tell you for a fact that there has been a higher than usual numbers of deaths over the last few months. NG you are correct that Sum are on a high growth curve stage at the moment but I still favour Ryman for the following reasons 1. An impeccable experienced management. 2.A 15 year proven history of record profits. 3. Double the demographic pool size to draw from now they are cracking Aussie. 4.Their villages are a lot bigger (All the new ones are 400 plus capacity compared to Sums 200-250ish) 5. They offer the full continuum of care model including dementia. You might even say Rymans share price is a bargain at the moment when you consider they will make around 130 million of underlying profit this financial year that's 4 times Summersets based on their latest guidance. There is scope for them all to continue to do well of course.

[winner69]

Underlying profit is all that counts in this sector. 15 cps after growing very slowly last year is not that spectacular.
I need to service my car next week, can I borrow your HUGE RAMP.

If you were going to 'float' Rogers Mansion Ltd what value what you put on your west Auckland mansion in bush clad surroundings?

The few hundred thousand you bought it for or the few million its worth now?

[Beagle]

The latest results look good however doubling up first half numbers to get end of year numbers has many obstacles. New sales were 160 so double that is 320 but don't forget that 160 comes from 4 new villages coming on tap but in the second half they only have 1 new village coming online (Wigram a 250 resident facility) so lets say they get 140 in the next half will give them their targeted build rate of 300 units so no surprises there. What's really fattened up the numbers for them is the jump in resale units but as we know from last year these are fickle and seasonal and I can tell you for a fact that there has been a higher than usual numbers of deaths over the last few months. NG you are correct that Sum are on a high growth curve stage at the moment but I still favour Ryman for the following reasons 1. An impeccable experienced management. 2.A 15 year proven history of record profits. 3. Double the demographic pool size to draw from now they are cracking Aussie. 4.Their villages are a lot bigger (All the new ones are 400 plus capacity compared to Sums 200-250ish) 5. They offer the full continuum of care model including dementia. You might even say Rymans share price is a bargain at the moment when you consider they will make around 130 million of underlying profit this financial year that's 4 times Summersets based on their latest guidance. There is scope for them all to continue to do well of course.

Best post I've seen on here for quite a long time. SUM's, (pun intended) the situation up perfectly. Take my hat off to you mate, unique insights into the industry from working in it...others posters take note, Couta1 has the good oil sorted in this sector.

[Beagle]

If you were going to 'float' Rogers Mansion Ltd what value what you put on your west Auckland mansion in bush clad surroundings?

The few hundred thousand you bought it for or the few million its worth now?

I won't comment specifically but will give you this insight. If you buy a house built in B grade materials...like SUM does with its villages, houses / villages don't go up as fast as those using the very best and most durable construction methodology and materials. Noticed how SUM's revaluations aren't as strong as others in the sector ? Visit a few of the SUM and RYM villages and notice the differences.
Unfortunately I have learned this lesson from the school of hard knocks.

[percy]

The latest results look good however doubling up first half numbers to get end of year numbers has many obstacles. New sales were 160 so double that is 320 but don't forget that 160 comes from 4 new villages coming on tap but in the second half they only have 1 new village coming online (Wigram a 250 resident facility) so lets say they get 140 in the next half will give them their targeted build rate of 300 units so no surprises there. What's really fattened up the numbers for them is the jump in resale units but as we know from last year these are fickle and seasonal and I can tell you for a fact that there has been a higher than usual numbers of deaths over the last few months. NG you are correct that Sum are on a high growth curve stage at the moment but I still favour Ryman for the following reasons 1. An impeccable experienced management. 2.A 15 year proven history of record profits. 3. Double the demographic pool size to draw from now they are cracking Aussie. 4.Their villages are a lot bigger (All the new ones are 400 plus capacity compared to Sums 200-250ish) 5. They offer the full continuum of care model including dementia. You might even say Rymans share price is a bargain at the moment when you consider they will make around 130 million of underlying profit this financial year that's 4 times Summersets based on their latest guidance. There is scope for them all to continue to do well of course.

I agree with Roger,an excellent post.
I take it your last sentence includes MET,RYM,SUM but not ARV.?

[trader_jackson]

ARV also offers a full spectrum of care, like Ryman, just smaller (usually with smaller, sometimes niche, villages, some of which are very high quality). ARV also focused more on the care part part rather than apartments

[Beagle]

Bloody Norah, (pun intended):p...I'd have thought it was crystal clear you have to look at PEG ratio's based on average expected growth over a number of years.

[BlackPeter]

ARV also offers a full spectrum of care, like Ryman, just smaller (usually with smaller, sometimes niche, villages, some of which are very high quality). ARV also focused more on the care part part rather than apartments

You sound like one of the poor buggers who has been fooled by the All Blacks and bought into the ARV IPO. Always dangerous to trust celebrities who sell stuff they don't understand. As indicated before - care might be a reason for people to move into the respective facilities, but it always will be a low margin business (and often even a "loss leader"). This might be o.k. for companies who have other revenue streams as well (like RYM and MET), but just living off a loss leader is an art not many master.

[percy]

ARV also offers a full spectrum of care, like Ryman, just smaller (usually with smaller, sometimes niche, villages, some of which are very high quality). ARV also focused more on the care part part rather than apartments

Correct they are concentrating on low margin business, and missing the high development margins MET,RYM and SUM are achieving.
To grow ARV will need to raise more capital,while the others will not.

[percy]

Setting a new high is very positive,as is the out look,both for the sector and the company.
I would expect it has surprised a few analysts,so I would buy before they upgrade their projections.

Those upgrades are coming quicker than expected.
eps growth remarkable.
gv1.Hope you brought yesterday.??

[gv1]

Bugger, I should have bought when I mentioned here that margin lending given was quite high for sum compared to other shares.
yes thanks percy I did.

[Hoop]

SUM record high price means its now in "Blue SKY" an area with no resistances....

http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/SUM%2007072015_1.png (http://s458.photobucket.com/user/Hoop_1/media/SUM%2007072015_1.png.html)

[winner69]

I love BLUE SKY

The last 2 years or so SUM has traded between 260 and 360 (round numbers to give a 100 range)

I reckon that 460 (the 360 plus 100) will be reached pretty quick and then that 460 will become 'support' with 560 (another 100 up) a probable resistance.

A pessimistic view would be 360 is now support (wont go below) and if 460 will sometime (soon) become resistance.

Hoop,what you think

Like both those 460 and 560 numbers - esp the 460 being supported by financial performance

[winner69]

Noticed how SUM's revaluations aren't as strong as others in the sector ? .

Had already worked that out. RYM revaluations do look as they are on average much higher than Summersets

But Summerset are catching up .....probably as a result of taking the build in house.

More future upside here.

[Hoop]

I love BLUE SKY

The last 2 years or so SUM has traded between 260 and 360 (round numbers to give a 100 range)

I reckon that 460 (the 360 plus 100) will be reached pretty quick and then that 460 will become 'support' with 560 (another 100 up) a probable resistance.

A pessimistic view would be 360 is now support (wont go below) and if 460 will sometime (soon) become resistance.

Hoop,what you think

Like both those 460 and 560 numbers - esp the 460 being supported by financial performance

$4.70 by Xmas..eh Winner:D

Beware:..TA Discipline is not designed to be used as a crystal ball.......So I've set myself up to fail at some point in time...

The EMA200 break through created is a pleasant complication which confirmed back in Jan 2015 that SUM had resumed its Bull Market Cycle so we should expect SUM to at some point in time enter back into its primary channel (blue).... so we can predict ;) by extrapolating both SD(2) Channels...

Enjoy :D

http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/SUM07072015A.png (http://s458.photobucket.com/user/Hoop_1/media/SUM07072015A.png.html)

[winner69]

Nice one hoops

As Willie Nelson says -

Blue skies smilin' at me
Nothin' but blue skies do I see
Bluebirds singin' a song
Nothin' but bluebirds all day long

Never saw the sun shinin' so bright
Never saw things goin' so right
Noticing the days hurrying by
When you're in love, my how they fly

Blue days, all of them gone
Nothin' but blue skies from now on
(Blue skies smilin' at me
Nothin' but blue skies do I see)

Never saw the sun shinin' so bright
Never saw things goin' so right
Noticing the days hurrying by
When you're in love, my how they fly

Blue days, all of them gone
Nothin' but blue skies from now on
Nothin' but blue skies from now on


https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=WSCplj40uuY

[Buffett Jr]

I love BLUE SKY

The last 2 years or so SUM has traded between 260 and 360 (round numbers to give a 100 range)

I reckon that 460 (the 360 plus 100) will be reached pretty quick and then that 460 will become 'support' with 560 (another 100 up) a probable resistance.

A pessimistic view would be 360 is now support (wont go below) and if 460 will sometime (soon) become resistance.

Hoop,what you think

Like both those 460 and 560 numbers - esp the 460 being supported by financial performance

I would say that the share price and the company doesn't care what you think a support or ceiling level is and that valuation of companies is based on fundamentals of the company itself.

[troyvdh]

Couta..giday ..do you agree with Rogers comment about SUM B grade builds...if correct.. is this a deliberate policy...If I rang SUM and asked if they were indeed building B grade buildings/units ..do you think that they would agree...??
I would have thought that ..given that the units/concept of aged housing implies a long term investment horizon blah blah...
I recall were not the comments re build were levelled at MET a while back...anyways cheers

[couta1]

Couta..giday ..do you agree with Rogers comment about SUM B grade builds...if correct.. is this a deliberate policy...If I rang SUM and asked if they were indeed building B grade buildings/units ..do you think that they would agree...??
I would have thought that ..given that the units/concept of aged housing implies a long term investment horizon blah blah...
I recall were not the comments re build were levelled at MET a while back...anyways cheers The only comment I will make on this issue is that all 3 of the big 3 have had issues with their building quality over the years at various times but I won't mention specifics on here. Most cases are due to faulty materials provided by suppliers, poor sub contractor workmanship and going back a few years poor architecture design(Leaky problems) Re MET they have a higher proportion of older buildings which will require a higher level of maintenance going forward. However I would agree with Roger that Ryman facilities are setting the standard in this sector.

[couta1]

I agree with Roger,an excellent post.
I take it your last sentence includes MET,RYM,SUM but not ARV.?
Correct Percy, ARV are using an outdated model at this point in time.

[BlackPeter]

Forsyth Barr raises rating from "hold" to "outperform" and target pricing from $3.70 to $4.35 ... Can be a good or a bad sign (they have been wrong before), but at current I still see more up than down potential for SUM.

[couta1]

Forsyth Barr raises rating from "hold" to "outperform" and target pricing from $3.70 to $4.35 ... Can be a good or a bad sign (they have been wrong before), but at current I still see more up than down potential for SUM.
I think you can safely take all analysts predictions in general with a rather large grain of salt:cool:

[winner69]

I think you can safely take all analysts predictions in general with a rather large grain of salt:cool:

Unusual for them .....they are bit on the light side with their target

Maybe holding a bit back for the next report they do ......get to $5 in 2 steps. You will note that $4.35 is half way between $3.70 and $5.00.

[Toasty]

Forsyth Barr raises rating from "hold" to "outperform" and target pricing from $3.70 to $4.35 ... Can be a good or a bad sign (they have been wrong before), but at current I still see more up than down potential for SUM.

If the analysts are calling this it might be time to bail out and take the profit. Once it collapses they will downgrade it to a sell and I will buy back in...:t_up:

[Harvey Specter]

If the analysts are calling this it might be time to bail out and take the profit. Once it collapses they will downgrade it to a sell and I will buy back in...:t_up:They didn't pick the good result this time so they will probably miss the next bad result too.

[macduffy]

"A broker's view"

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/opinion-analysis/70123526/a-brokers-view-summerset

[Zaphod]

"A broker's view"

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/opinion-analysis/70123526/a-brokers-view-summerset

"The other major risk that retirement operators face is the prospect of retiree's living longer."

Another reason why underlying profit is such an important metric in this industry!

"The other major risk that retirement operators face is the prospect of retiree's living longer."

The Westpac "Old Flatties" advert might put them off....

[Doug]

"The other major risk that retirement operators face is the prospect of retiree's living longer."

Another reason why underlying profit is such an important metric in this industry!

"The other major risk that retirement operators face is the prospect of retiree's living longer."

The Westpac "Old Flatties" advert might put them off....

That risk is often quoted but I'm not so sure it is all that significant. Operators can choose minimum entry age which is surely the defining and controllable factor. ADHB publishes this interesting list at www.adhb.govt.nz/seniorline/docs/RetirementVillagesAuckland.pdf which shows minimum entry ages varying from 55 to 70 in the Auckland region.

[winner69]

On move again

388 must be a new high

Good stuff

[Food4Thought]

I can't wait for the $4.00 breach... getting close now. It will happen... but when...
Relatively small share numbers moving. RYM seems to have lost a bit of steam in this wake. Both will continue to do well long term. Supply and demand

[winner69]

I can't wait for the $4.00 breach... getting close now. It will happen... but when...
Relatively small share numbers moving. RYM seems to have lost a bit of steam in this wake. Both will continue to do well long term. Supply and demand

This week I reckon

The value of all their Auckland units going a couple hundred bucks a week - share price should follow eh

As a couple of us said earlier 460 is the immediate target

Still cheap as

[Food4Thought]

This week I reckon

The value of all their Auckland units going a couple hundred bucks a week - share price should follow eh

As a couple of us said earlier 460 is the immediate target

Still cheap as

:t_up::drool: Can't complain at all. Wish I would have been more patient with my RYM when I was a grasshopper

[kiwiwim]

That risk is often quoted but I'm not so sure it is all that significant. Operators can choose minimum entry age which is surely the defining and controllable factor. ADHB publishes this interesting list at www.adhb.govt.nz/seniorline/docs/RetirementVillagesAuckland.pdf which shows minimum entry ages varying from 55 to 70 in the Auckland region.

I found this website from the ADHB very interesting, do you know if a similar site exist for the Canterbury area?

[percy]

I sold a few this morning.
I brought them on 12th Jan this year at $2.92,so they have been kind to me.
We will retain the wife's larger holding.

[Beagle]

I sold a few this morning.
I brought them on 12th Jan this year at $2.92,so they have been kind to me.
We will retain the wife's larger holding.

I think that's very good selling as its interesting to note that Craigs and First N.Z. are both projecting a very fulsome 400 new units being built next year which is a major uplift from 300 this year and most interestingly to the best of my knowlkedge this is unconfirmed by SUM itself...you would have thought if a company had of quietly mentioned to brokers analysts that they can facilitate such a substantial build rate uplift they would have done the right thing and appraised the market of this forward guidance, (is this another teenager mistake, you be the judge), but I think the 400 target is lofty given they're building out flat-stick at present on four of their key developments.

Even if they can build 400 units next year Craigs only value them at $3.71 and rate them a hold and the current PE is very close to RYM who in my opinion are arguably N.Z. premier growth stock with an enviable track record of 16 years of consistent growth and top level management and corporate governance...which in my book warrants a PE well north of SUM...go figure.

People a little obsessed with this years EPS growth and forgotten the patchy growth last year and maybe next isn't so flash either ?...you be the Judge.

[Nasi Goreng]

I sold a few this morning.
I brought them on 12th Jan this year at $2.92,so they have been kind to me.
We will retain the wife's larger holding.

Funnily enough, I bought mine for $2.92. Its my only exposure to property and I'm quite comfortable with fundamentals and supply and demand situation. Barring any property market crashes, I think 5 years from now $4 will be cheap and SUM will be much further through their growth cycle.

[couta1]

SumSum have confirmed a target of 300 units for this year and 300 plus next year so this 400 fiqure looks plucked out of the air to me IMO Sum has a lot baked into its current price and will have to deliver on the next 2 quarter metrics ie No slow quarters or the share price will get slashed. Ryman will deliver 4 times the underlying profit of Sum at the end of this financial year and are basically double Sums share price currently making them good buying in comparison and will be having another run up to $9 plus some time this year once again IMO once the pennies start dropping regarding how well they are doing in Aussie and its compounding effect. Disc-Like Percy I don't hold now but my wife has a good parcel bought at $2.20.

[percy]

Funnily enough, I bought mine for $2.92. Its my only exposure to property and I'm quite comfortable with fundamentals and supply and demand situation. Barring any property market crashes, I think 5 years from now $4 will be cheap and SUM will be much further through their growth cycle.

Don't read too much into my selling.
We are now enjoying "free rides" with both our RYM and SUM holdings.
In fact very free rides.!!! .
And remain "well positioned."

[JayRiggs]

There is little doubt that Ryman will deliver 4 times the underlying profit of SUM, but RYM have a little more than double the number of shares than SUM. So in terms of share price, that evens things out a little bit. i.e. they are trading on similar underlying PE ratios at the moment.

[777]

Well I bought more this morning at 3.93.

Thanks for selling.

Craigs don't hold much credibility with me.

[couta1]

I REALLY hope this was a joke. Otherwise, I am shocked!
Rymans share price is overdue for a good run up after its long sleep so don't be shocked. PS- I don't think Sum is good buying at current share price unless the next 2 quarters confirm their momentum that's one thing you don't have to worry about with Ryman:cool:

[gv1]

b..brokers if they were so good why would be they working for others...leeches..making money from others.
Just like economists they ride the tide...otherwise we won't have recessions etc if these people knew what they were doing. my 2 cents.

[JayRiggs]

Rymans share price is overdue for a good run up after its long sleep so don't be shocked. PS- I don't think Sum is good buying at current share price unless the next 2 quarters confirm their momentum that's one thing you don't have to worry about with Ryman:cool:

I think if SUM were confident enough to say their FY2015 forecast underlying profits will be $32-$34m, then the next 2 quarterlies should be pretty decent then. Should justify a share price over $4 when next yr rolls around.

I'm a bit curious. Why do SUM release quarterly sales reports, but RYM or MET do not?

[drcjp]

I think if SUM were confident enough to say their FY2015 forecast underlying profits will be $32-$34m, then the next 2 quarterlies should be pretty decent then. Should justify a share price over $4 when next yr rolls around.

I'm a bit curious. Why do SUM release quarterly sales reports, but RYM or MET do not?

Because Roger won't let them:D

[Beagle]

Because Roger won't let them:D

:lol: :lol: Sum and Rym being on the same PE is incredibly funny too. If people can't see these two companies warrant a different PE rating..just give up and stick your money in the bank.

[winner69]

Ceteris paribus, the company with the higher growth expectations should trade on a higher PE, which is why SUM is such a better price (currently) than RYM.

And SUM Price/Book is significantly less than RYM

That 4 bucks this week ......and then heading to 5 bucks

Loving it

[Beagle]

Ceteris paribus, the company with the higher growth expectations should trade on a higher PE, which is why SUM is such a better price (currently) than RYM.

You are definitely not a student of Benjamin Graham's intrinsic valuation school of thought are you !! Its sustainable long term future earnings growth that counts and guess which company has the runs on the board with all the credibility. Let me help you mate, it starts with R.

[Beagle]

Ryman's long run growth rate is 15%, yet they trade on a PE of around 30, giving a PEG of 0.5.

That is terrible value in anybody's language.

Roger - the strongest adapt and survive; The others cling to specific events and fail to allow their thinking to evolve.

LOL fantastic and very insightful post mate. Have a great day. I'll leave you folks to ramp to your hearts content.

[ratkin]

:lol: :lol: Sum and Rym being on the same PE is incredibly funny too. If people can't see these two companies warrant a different PE rating..just give up and stick your money in the bank.

Agreed Roger, SUM clearly deserve a higher P/E, better growth prospects

[couta1]

you do realise that the part I underlined was entirely incorrect, right? You are supposed to compare each company's earnings with its market cap, not the price of each share!!
I realise that NG but I consider Ryman better buying because that are driven by an impeccable management with a proven reliable history with huge compounding growth capability now they have proved themselves in Aussie and their villages are selling like hotcakes. Jayriggs the 32-34 million is a forecast and not guaranteed, they only have 1 new village coming on tap this coming half year and are still struggling to get resource consent for their lovely Boulcott site due to refusing to compromise ( No doubt they will once the stalemate goes on forever and a day, hopefully) I wouldn't buy them at $4 currently until their projections are confirmed with sales over the next two quarters, $3.50 maybe? At the end of the day there's room for all the big 3 to continue to do well but I think some are underestimating Ryman on here and overestimating Sum.

[couta1]

And SUM Price/Book is significantly less than RYM

That 4 bucks this week ......and then heading to 5 bucks

Loving it Is this the same winner that was predicting Sum to go to $2 a while back, mega ramp time anyone?

[winner69]

Is this the same winner that was predicting Sum to go to $2 a while back, mega ramp time anyone?

Did get down to $2.60 / $2.70 eh couts

Todays price close to $4 pretty good relative to that - almost 50% more

What's stopping it getting to 5 bucks now as long as property prices keep going up at current rates we be alright

[Beagle]

I realise that NG but I consider Ryman better buying because that are driven by an impeccable management with a proven reliable history with huge compounding growth capability now they have proved themselves in Aussie and their villages are selling like hotcakes. Jayriggs the 32-34 million is a forecast and not guaranteed, they only have 1 new village coming on tap this coming half year and are still struggling to get resource consent for their lovely Boulcott site due to refusing to compromise ( No doubt they will once the stalemate goes on forever and a day, hopefully) I wouldn't buy them at $4 currently until their projections are confirmed with sales over the next two quarters, $3.50 maybe? At the end of the day there's room for all the big 3 to continue to do well but I think some are underestimating Ryman on here and overestimating Sum.


Is this the same winner that was predicting Sum to go to $2 a while back, mega ramp time anyone?

You've been on top form with your posts lately mate. Hits the nail sweetly and directly on the head.

[iceman]

I realise that NG but I consider Ryman better buying because that are driven by an impeccable management with a proven reliable history with huge compounding growth capability now they have proved themselves in Aussie and their villages are selling like hotcakes. Jayriggs the 32-34 million is a forecast and not guaranteed, they only have 1 new village coming on tap this coming half year and are still struggling to get resource consent for their lovely Boulcott site due to refusing to compromise ( No doubt they will once the stalemate goes on forever and a day, hopefully) I wouldn't buy them at $4 currently until their projections are confirmed with sales over the next two quarters, $3.50 maybe? At the end of the day there's room for all the big 3 to continue to do well but I think some are underestimating Ryman on here and overestimating Sum.

I haven't seen any holders on here put Ryman down. I think we all agree that RYM is a very well run company and would guess many of us holding SUM also hold RYM. 2 great shares to hold long term.

[macduffy]

An interesting article in today's Herald about a block of land in St John's Rd Auckland, owned by the St John's College Trust which is being offered for a 127 year lease, payment for use for that period up front. Known as "Parsons' Paddock", it's 2.5ha and touted as being suitable for a retirement village as well as a housing development. It would be a great location for the former, IMO, but is 2.5ha a viable size for one of the big three? Probably.

Yes, you read it here first, in April!

;)

[macduffy]

An interesting article in today's Herald about a block of land in St John's Rd Auckland, owned by the St John's College Trust which is being offered for a 127 year lease, payment for use for that period up front. Known as "Parsons' Paddock", it's 2.5ha and touted as being suitable for a retirement village as well as a housing development. It would be a great location for the former, IMO, but is 2.5ha a viable size for one of the big three? Probably.

Yes, you read it here first, in April!

;)

[Toasty]

MORE good news.

Man, I am LOVING this.

https://www.nzx.com/companies/SUM/announcements/267251

Summerset just keeps churning it out at the moment. Fantastic.

They have an opportunity here to provide the extra facilities that Ryman provide such as dementia care as mentioned by Roger and Couta. Is this a likelihood? I see that they mention care facilities.

[Beagle]

Let me play devil's advocate, a role that's not unfamiliar to me LOL....I wonder if the teenager learned anything from its multi year Boulcott site fiasco and made the offer subject to due diligence and consenting approval...knowing Mr "Gung Ho's" approach at SUM it wouldn't surprise me if they've bitten themselves off another problem too big to chew in terms of resource consenting and get left holding the baby again. Chequered track record and a PE of 30...good luck to holders, I think you'll need it. I note its a very small site in terms of acreage so they'll need an intensive development to get anything approaching any reasonable economy of scale...intensive development's are a real can of worms in terms of consenting. Pretty litigious bunch of neighbours in that neck of the woods too.

[winner69]

Thats good news today

Greater exposure in richer parts of auckland good as well

Hope they name it after illuminarys like Roger

Good news keeps coming from this (relatively) undervalued co.

[couta1]

Let me play devil's advocate, a role that's not unfamiliar to me LOL....I wonder if the teenager learned anything from its multi year Boulcott site fiasco and made the offer subject to due diligence and consenting approval...knowing Mr "Gung Ho's" approach at SUM it wouldn't surprise me if they've bitten themselves off another problem too big to chew in terms of resource consenting and get left holding the baby again. Chequered track record and a PE of 30...good luck to holders, I think you'll need it. I note its a very small site in terms of acreage so they'll need an intensive development to get anything approaching any reasonable economy of scale...intensive development's are a real can of worms in terms of consenting. Pretty litigious bunch of neighbours in that neck of the woods too.
Yep its all very well buying up land but land you can't get consents for due to bad choice and or arrogance toward local councils ain't gonna do much for shareholders other than providing grazing opportunities for the local sheep population.

[Beagle]

Yep its all very well buying up land but land you can't get consents for due to bad choice and or arrogance toward local councils ain't gonna do much for shareholders other than providing grazing opportunities for the local sheep population.

Absolutely and some would be brave enough to suggest "SUM" of SUM's shareholders too LOL. I must say I really like the way MET manages their land acquisitions when making a far bigger land acquisition like the one at Red Beach recently they make it crystal clear the purchase is subject to due diligence and resource consent approval so there's no possibility of them ending up in a multi year Boulcott consenting fiasco. Prudent management v Gung Ho trust us we know what we are doing...too early for a Tui ?

[winner69]

finally hit $4. Champagne tonight.

And now onwards and upwards from here eh ...... 425.......450.......475...... then $5 bucks


(Ryman prob about 8 bucks still then as it multiples revert to more aligned withSUMs)

[couta1]

Never too late to swallow your pride and buy some SUM before it hits $5, Roger. It will be there by the end of the year IMHO...
Roger will be happy with his MET which will be back over $5 soon and why would he pay $4 when he could get them for $3.50 ish in a few months if he wanted:cool:

[Beagle]

Never too late to swallow your pride and buy some SUM before it hits $5, Roger. It will be there by the end of the year IMHO...

LOL Wild horses couldn't drag me onto the share register mate. I buy well managed, well governed, proven companies on realistic metrics. So many hurdles this pup doesn't jump...

[Cricketfan]

LOL Wild horses couldn't drag me onto the share register mate. I buy well managed, well governed, proven companies on realistic metrics. So many hurdles this pup doesn't jump...

I guess SUM fell into this category last year (see post 1737 (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?5009-Summerset-Group-IPO&p=479591&viewfull=1#post479591)) so things change fast. Maybe it's back on track... time will tell I guess.

[couta1]

NG Roger will get the same gains out of his MET and Ryman they all take turns at having run ups, watch these two take a run up some time this year. Sum is a solid company and is having a good run right now but unless the next two quarters can match the last two(Which I don't believe they will due to less units available for sale) then the current price is at a premium and those wanting to enter may well save themselves a bit of money by waiting a while IMO.

[couta1]

It's all good debate NG but one thing I can almost guarantee about Sum is that they will give up their reluctance to build dementia units within a couple of years.

[gv1]

Hi chill buddies....its only the stock.
Its getting HOT in here like the stocks.

[percy]

We are enjoying our "free rides: with RYM and SUM.ARV I find unattractive.
The sector is a great sector to be in.
I don't hold MET,however I think it is interesting company.Should they align themselves with IFT's objectives, share holders are in for a fun ride.So I would keeping an eye on what IFT say and do.

[Beagle]

Hi chill buddies....its only the stock.
Its getting HOT in here like the stocks.

Its all good mate, its all in good humour. I just like winding some people's watches now and again especially the new ones :D

[winner69]

you are a worry percy with this 'free' stuff. They weren't really free were they

Last person who touted this 'free' stuff was Snoops

Always thought you were a secret admirer of his

But you have done well with RYM and SUM over the years and as you say should continue to do well, at least with SUM over the next year. Well done

[winner69]

hey New Guy .... that 425 could be hit bt end of week ..... 5 bucks a certainty now methinks .... before Xmas?

[couta1]

hey New Guy .... that 425 could be hit bt end of week ..... 5 bucks a certainty now methinks .... before Xmas?
Winner you must be the leading contender for the Ramper of the year award but wait you would also be top of the pack for the supremo el stirro award as well, man if you keep it up you'll surpass Sums record for retirement village operator of the year awards:eek2:

[gv1]

[QUOTE=percy;582477]We are enjoying our "free rides: with RYM and SUM.ARV I find unattractive.
The sector is a great sector to be in.

Yeah...right mate!

[couta1]

DEFINITELY $5 this year.
Winner you have a contender.

[gv1]

Its all good mate, its all in good humour. I just like winding some people's watches now and again especially the new ones :D

Good...enjoy the day!

[percy]

you are a worry percy with this 'free' stuff. They weren't really free were they

Last person who touted this 'free' stuff was Snoops

Always thought you were a secret admirer of his

But you have done well with RYM and SUM over the years and as you say should continue to do well, at least with SUM over the next year. Well done

Well if you buy 20,000 shares at $1.78.Buy another 5,000 at $2.94 your total cost is $50,300.
Sell 13,000 at $3.35 and 5000 at $3.94 your sales are ...........................................$63,250 .
.................................................. .................................................. ...........Profit $12,950.
However you are still left holding 7,000 shares worth............................................. .$28,770.
On $63,250 invested your total above water figure is $41,720.plus divies.
I therefore think I can call our shares "free stuff'.
I would point out our RYM could be said to be "even more free stuff."
ps.Do you think Snops will finish his GNE research before Kupe run out of gas?! lol.

[twotic]

I guess SUM fell into this category last year (see post 1737 (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?5009-Summerset-Group-IPO&p=479591&viewfull=1#post479591)) so things change fast. Maybe it's back on track... time will tell I guess.

Yeah it's amazing isn't it. I recall that time when Roger sold out of RYM (which he then subsequently slagged off on every opportunity) and into SUM which he thought was the bee's knees - funny how things change, and even funnier how things seem to turn out.

Then there's Couta - I recall a time when he said SUM was the one thing that he couldn't sell because his wife would kill him - has something changed there too? Certainly doesn't seem like he is talking it up like he used to.

Morale of the story? Take what people say with a grain of salt on stock market forums - opinions often turn on a dime to reflect their holdings :(

Disc: Used to own RYM and SUM but now all cashed out - wish remaining holders of both all the very best.

All in the spirit of good banter of course :)

[Cricketfan]

Well if you buy 20,000 shares at $1.78.Buy another 5,000 at $2.94 your total cost is $50,300.
Sell 13,000 at $3.35 and 5000 at $3.94 your sales are ...........................................$63,250 .
.................................................. .................................................. ...........Profit $12,950.
However you are still left holding 7,000 shares worth............................................. .$28,770.
On $63,250 invested your total above water figure is $41,720.plus divies.
I therefore think I can call our shares "free stuff'.


I would only consider something to be free if you didn't risk anything to get it. i.e. if you invest $0 and end up with 7000 shares then they're free. If you got those shares by risking $$$ then it's just profit that you earned. But it's good whatever you call it!

[couta1]

twotic she wasn't happy but she still has her holding and she knows my get the better of me impulsive nature only too well so quickly blew over, I'm not sad about selling up my holding but should have waited to collect that extra upside.

[twotic]

twotic she wasn't happy but she still has her holding and she knows my get the better of me impulsive nature only too well so quickly blew over, I'm not sad about selling up my holding but should have waited to collect that extra upside.

Oh, so you did sell. Why the change of heart? You loved SUM a while back.

[couta1]

Oh, so you did sell. Why the change of heart? You loved SUM a while back.
I put my reasons on the thread a while back and don't want to clutter up things again by going over them again but I had a few reasons which were genuine.

[twotic]

I put my reasons on the thread a while back and don't want to clutter up things again by going over them again but I had a few reasons which were genuine.

Fair enough, perhaps some lessons to be learned for everyone. Good luck with your new investments.

[Beagle]

Good...enjoy the day!

Great advice, too nice a day to spend in the office...think I'll have a cruise in the V8, I know, I could go and see my best mate Norah :D


Because Roger doesn't like Norah :p

[couta1]

Great advice, too nice a day to spend in the office...think I'll have a cruise in the V8, I know, I could go and see my best mate Norah :D Don't forget to buckle her in tight, you do have large seatbelts now don't you mate?:eek2:

[winner69]

Well if you buy 20,000 shares at $1.78.Buy another 5,000 at $2.94 your total cost is $50,300.
Sell 13,000 at $3.35 and 5000 at $3.94 your sales are ...........................................$63,250 .
.................................................. .................................................. ...........Profit $12,950.
However you are still left holding 7,000 shares worth............................................. .$28,770.
On $63,250 invested your total above water figure is $41,720.plus divies.
I therefore think I can call our shares "free stuff'.
I would point out our RYM could be said to be "even more free stuff."
ps.Do you think Snops will finish his GNE research before Kupe run out of gas?! lol.

So in SUM speak

Realised gains $18,210
Unrealised gains $23,510


Well done

But what did you do with the $63k proceeds? Hope you put them in HNZ instead of spending it

Yes, I know the market effectively 'paid' you to hold on to your RYM shares. That'll confuse Cricketfan.

Snoops is a good guy, convinced me to stay out of Arrium

[percy]

So in SUM speak

Realised gains $18,210
Unrealised gains $23,510


Well done

But what did you do with the $63k proceeds? Hope you put them in HNZ instead of spending it

Yes, I know the market effectively 'paid' you to hold on to your RYM shares. That'll confuse Cricketfan.

Snoops is a good guy, convinced me to stay out of Arrium

Yes most probably did end up in HNZ.
Can't remember where the money came for the 5000 SUM I just sold, which I brought in January.Maybe from changing my mind on VIL which I got out of with a $50 loss.Yes a mate's daughter told me Farro Fresh was far superior to Nosh.My "hold forever" turned out to be about a week!!
I think you will have confused more than Cricketfan,however, I am a very relaxed "paid" RYM and SUM holder.
Yes Snoopy certainly saved me from ARI too,and luckily I sold our GNE holdings a few months ago,so no need to read that thread!! lol.

ps.When I sold those SUM at $3.35 HNZ was trading at about 86 cents.!

[stoploss]

twotic she wasn't happy but she still has her holding and she knows my get the better of me impulsive nature only too well so quickly blew over, I'm not sad about selling up my holding but should have waited to collect that extra upside.

Couta , hand over the portfolio management to the missus ....... whole lot easier and profitable :)

[Bjauck]

https://www.nzx.com/companies/SUM/announcements/267251

Parson's Green - they are lucky to get that piece of land, even though it is a small section. I used to drive by there all the time. A sunny northern ridge location. Highly desirable spot...the leafy St johns College next door, who seem keen on having a retirement village as neighbours. SUM could make it a boutique show-case village with lots of wealthier gentle folk in the surrounding area. The neighbours on the other side may come on board as a retirement village could be better than other possible high density options..

[macduffy]

Spot on, Bj. I don't see any neighbours having any objection to this one!

[couta1]

Couta , hand over the portfolio management to the missus ....... whole lot easier and profitable :) Nah mate I manage her spray and walk away portfolio as well which is a whole lot easier and only involves discussing what shares to buy and buying them on her behalf unfortunately my personality type doesn't enjoy just spray and walk away such is human weakness aye:cool:

[percy]

Couta1 do it while there is still some value left.!
Here is a story especially for you.
Once upon a time there was a share broker, who sent his male client his buy/sell recommendations.
Client's wife died.Client was very surprised his wife's share portfolio was worth a great deal more than his.
He gave his wife's to the broker and asked for recommendations.
The broker spent some time going over the woman's portfolio before the penny dropped;The wife had acted on the broker's buy recommendations,but had ignored his sell recommendations..

[winner69]

Good story Percy, like it

[Regi]

Why did I sell out of this in the $3.20's.... :(

[winner69]

MORE good news.

https://www.nzx.com/companies/SUM/announcements/267507

That maybe even better than last weeks announcement

Never mind .... enough good news to get share price to 450 ..... 500

[couta1]

That maybe even better than last weeks announcement

Never mind .... enough good news to get share price to 450 ..... 500
Landbank announcements in themselves are of limited value until resource consent is obtained, remember only one new village coming on stream over the next 6 months punters paying a lot at current prices for next 2 quarters results.

[Beagle]

Landbank announcements in themselves are of limited value until resource consent is obtained, remember only one new village coming on stream over the next 6 months punters paying a lot at current prices for next 2 quarters results.

They sure are. Craigs after their careful analysis see fair and full value at $3.71 and that value is always expressed as a target price in 12 months time i.e. July 2016.

[James108]

Not to mention anyone with enough cash can buy property. Would be interesting to see the price tag. Still on balance a good announcement.

[couta1]

NG you had better contact the board and offer some advice on how they can obtain resource consent for that lovely Boulcott site :cool:

[winner69]

They sure are. Craigs after their careful analysis see fair and full value at $3.71 and that value is always expressed as a target price in 12 months time i.e. July 2016.

Guru analyst targets are usually 15%-20% on the high side (note didn't say over stated)

In this case one 15% odd on the low side ...go figur

Did they put a SELL on SUM to maintain the credibility of their valuation?

[Bjauck]

Landbank announcements in themselves are of limited value until resource consent is obtained, remember only one new village coming on stream over the next 6 months punters paying a lot at current prices for next 2 quarters results.

Do you think that getting a Resource consent for this latest site may be a challenge? It is a light commercial area with I think council owned land on one side, commercial properties on two sides and residential properties on one side. When Council are planning for higher density for most suburbs I am not sure who would object it. It seems another great site for a Retirement Village to me.

[winner69]

Just hit $4.25!

good eh newguy .... 450 even sooner than I thought

[couta1]

Just hit $4.25!
Next you'll be trying to convince us that they are good value at these inflated prices, those that wait and want to buy in will get them well below $4 over the coming months.

[PartyPooper]

Sell half my holding at 4.20 as I think it has gone to far to fast...

Jumps to 4.25 Dammit

[couta1]

Sell half my holding at 4.20 as I think it has gone to far to fast...

Jumps to 4.25 Dammit
Well done, why worry about radar blips:cool:

[couta1]

totally agree it is the wrong TIME to buy, but still the right share to hold. You, good sir, seem to doubt it is even a good hold at the right price. Not doubting its a good hold at the right price, now what would that be I wonder, lets say $3.40 ish shall we.

[couta1]

Careful, you'll make Roger upset if you admit it's still a good stock :D
Great traders stock alright NG and if I still held my 150 k shares I couldn't roll them out the door quick enough at current prices:D

[Beagle]

Careful, you'll make Roger upset if you admit it's still a good stock :D

The same Roger that sold 14 months ago at $3.58 and reinvested in HNZ at 85 cents and made 55% on his money by selling that recently at $1.32 ? :D

Winner, Craigs have a hold rating and fair value at $3.71.

[JayRiggs]

If they can achieve $33m underlying profit for FY2015, that would be an EPS of about 15c.
I think the interim dividend will be 1.86cps, going on a 31% dividend payout and interim dividend being 40% of the full year dividend like the last one was.
We shall see in a couple of weeks!

[couta1]

I am holding a similar amount right now and fairly pleased. Bought most of them at $2.58 in 2013, so up 65% now. My long term target is to sell most it at $20.
Good on ya mate by that time Ryman should be knocking on $50 aye.

[silu]

Very tempted to sell down some of my holding. It hit my target price way earlier than anticipated. I guess let's ride the wave while it lasts.

[ratkin]

They sure are. Craigs after their careful analysis see fair and full value at $3.71 and that value is always expressed as a target price in 12 months time i.e. July 2016.

Fair value is what you can sell them for , and right now it a very healthy 4.25 :t_up:

[Nasi Goreng]

If they can achieve $33m underlying profit for FY2015, that would be an EPS of about 15c.
I think the interim dividend will be 1.86cps, going on a 31% dividend payout and interim dividend being 40% of the full year dividend like the last one was.
We shall see in a couple of weeks!

You would need to have plenty more shares than I have to get excited about a 1.86cps dividend. I think as the business matures, we can expect higher dividends but for the next few years, 1.5, 2 or 3 cents is not going to mean much to me.

[winner69]

You would need to have plenty more shares than I have to get excited about a 1.86cps dividend. I think as the business matures, we can expect higher dividends but for the next few years, 1.5, 2 or 3 cents is not going to mean much to me.

Never going to get rich on divies from SUM

They shouldn't even be paying divies - keep on buying sites and building things

[Beagle]

Fair value is what you can sell them for , and right now it a very healthy 4.25 :t_up:

I am happy for holders, I genuinely am as there's plenty of room in this sector for the big three to all be highly sucessful but like my posts in the HNZ thread which have turned out to be bang on the money and many a holder now laments not trying to see my point of view, some stocks run too far too quickly and become over-priced, much like HNZ did when it was $1.41. Good luck to anyone thinking of buying at the current price :eek2:

[gv1]

hi mate , I think I initiated and said about HNZ with quadrant buying in but for this one I think it still has gas...

[gv1]

hi mate , I think I initiated and said about HNZ with quadrant buying in but for this one I think it still has gas...

[couta1]

hi mate , I think I initiated and said about HNZ with quadrant buying in but for this one I think it still has gas...
Gas balloons have a habit of deflating once they reach dizzy heights.

[Fisherking]

Landbank announcements in themselves are of limited value until resource consent is obtained, remember only one new village coming on stream over the next 6 months punters paying a lot at current prices for next 2 quarters results.

Bear in mind Central and Local governments are doing all they can to increase housing density close to the cities; both this and the St Johns sites will be prime candidates. I don't foresee any consenting issues.

[couta1]

Bear in mind Central and Local governments are doing all they can to increase housing density close to the cities; both this and the St Johns sites will be prime candidates. I don't foresee any consenting issues.
Neither do I but the Boulcott site has been the big problem.

[winner69]

Share price holding up very well since the burst up after last announcement

A month or so of consolidation and then the BIG move up to 5 bucks I reckon.

Beautiful chart at the moment.

And 43% increase over a year is my sort of stuff.

Seems to have best performer by far of the sector over the last 52 weeks

[couta1]

So basically, your argument about the newly acquired site held no weight? Nice. :cool:
But I never had an argument about the newly acquired site NG so its got nothing to do with holding weight or not, have you been drinking? My argument was about land being dead until resource consent is obtained and Sum previously have showed a certain arrogance toward certain local councils and residents which can slow down or stop resource consent from ever being obtained in a worst case scenario:cool:

[Bjauck]

So basically, your argument about the newly acquired site held no weight? Nice. :cool:
I guess there is always a risk the planning approval for a village could be thwarted in some way. From memory, the Boulcott development in the Hutt was in a special character residential area and the original Summerset plans were relying on a zoning change.

I think one of the reasons why Nimbyism has a loud voice is because of the inadequacy of and difficulty getting compensation under the RMA and the PWA for neighbours affected by zoning changes, dispensations granted to developers and public works. Compensation provisions need an overhaul.

[couta1]

Bjauck Sum didn't want to budge on the design of the facility which has caused the most angst amongst the local residents which is why there is a 120 strong lobby group fighting them currently.

[Beagle]

Bjauck Sum didn't want to budge on the design of the facility which has caused the most angst amongst the local residents which is why there is a 120 strong lobby group fighting them currently.

Its amazing that this fiasco is still ongoing after all this time isn't it. Must be nearly two years now ?

[couta1]

Its amazing that this fiasco is still ongoing after all this time isn't it. Must be nearly two years now ?
Since April 2013.

[Bjauck]

Bjauck Sum didn't want to budge on the design of the facility which has caused the most angst amongst the local residents which is why there is a 120 strong lobby group fighting them currently.

All the more reason why Summerset may have learned from experience and would not be likely to want to buy property which could be subject to similar opposition. For a start, its two most recent purchases are in Auckland - not a Lower Hutt special character area - and the Auckland Council are on record as wanting to encourage more and higher density housing. Of course, no retirement company can take it for granted that their development plans will be automatically greenlighted but if the most recent SUM purchase fails to get developed, Auckland Council will need to do some explaining given the need for housing in the city.

[trader_jackson]

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11494726
(http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11494726)
The ugly side of retirement villages...(at least in the long[er] term)
There was disputes over fee rises each year (from what I heard), now it is common to have a 'fixed fee for life' scheme...
Eventually there will be disputes about why they get 30% of their house's/apartments capital value over x period, depreciated (ie taken away from them), when there house/apartment has actually increased say 30% over the same period... as supply is (only recently) starting to exceed demand, residents will have 'more power', and the days of "easy money" are most likely numbered... Summerset being one of the most aggressive in expansion in this country could be exposed to this the most should things change.

This is however a longer term issue, probably wont have an effect for a couple of years... those villages with a strong care focus shouldn't be impacted as much (Ryman, Arvida)

EDIT: Only now just saw the full article... and not surprisingly what was at the top by a golden mile? "Disposal matters including marketing, valuation, length of sale, refurbishment, ongoing charges and exit payments"

[winner69]

They say “The trading period for the six months to June 2015 has been positive. "

Talk about a real understatement - or are they just being modest

I say its "marvellous" as Richie would say

Look at those development margins - "marvellous"

I reckon 2nd half will be even better. Full year profit close to $90m

[JayRiggs]

If they can achieve $33m underlying profit for FY2015, that would be an EPS of about 15c.
I think the interim dividend will be 1.86cps, going on a 31% dividend payout and interim dividend being 40% of the full year dividend like the last one was.
We shall see in a couple of weeks!

DOh! My dividend prediction was off by 1 cent.
I knew I should have rounded it to the nearest 5c.
The dividend announced today was 1.85cps.

[silu]

No indication though whether the dividend can be reinvested?

[couta1]

No indication though whether the dividend can be reinvested?
It can be as their has been no indication that their current scheme has changed.

[couta1]

Still happy you sold, Couta? I'd be the first to admit I sold too early and their were several factors that led me to sell, however I would have sold at current levels and waited for a lower re entry price. It's good to see that Sum have upped their game on giving forward guidance etc and the management seem to be maturing. I will be taking a great deal of interest in the next two quarters results given they only have one new village coming on tap to see if they can continue to carry their current momentum forward at the same rate. I will look at a re entry if they confirm their current path. PS- What I like about Ryman is you don't have to use guesswork going forward due to their maturity so are anticipating their next good run up which will come with the compounding effect of their Aussie developments.

[James108]

Looking ahead two quarters is far too short a time frame. Two decades is probably a better outlook. As you say, management and forward guidance are getting better, very happy about their new target build rate.

As we know earnings for Sum are lumpy, Q3 and Q4 will very likely even out earnings for the year to be in line with their guidance. I doubt share price will move much on lower earnings in Q3/Q4 and if it does will provide good buying opportunities like we saw when SP was below $2.80.

[couta1]

And that's the difference between Ryman and Sum James, Ryman don't have lumpy just consistent year on year growth.

[James108]

Thats because of scale and a lower growth rate. I dont mind growth being lumpy as long as on average it is higher.

[couta1]

Thats because of scale and a lower growth rate. I dont mind growth being lumpy as long as on average it is higher.
Like I've said before all of the big 3 with do well long term its a great sector with few obstacles going forward and strong tailwinds.

[percy]

A cracker result.
Well done SUM.

[gv1]

:t_up::t_up::t_up::D:D

[Beagle]

I'd be the first to admit I sold too early and their were several factors that led me to sell, however I would have sold at current levels and waited for a lower re entry price. It's good to see that Sum have upped their game on giving forward guidance etc and the management seem to be maturing. I will be taking a great deal of interest in the next two quarters results given they only have one new village coming on tap to see if they can continue to carry their current momentum forward at the same rate. I will look at a re entry if they confirm their current path. PS- What I like about Ryman is you don't have to use guesswork going forward due to their maturity so are anticipating their next good run up which will come with the compounding effect of their Aussie developments.

Good post mate. No question SUM have had a cracker spring 2014 summer and autumn 2015 as four of their key developments are being built out and settled. Well done to them on the development margin too but I continue to see better value in MET and prefer the management style and consistent growth record of RYM which is the only stock on the NZX that's really worth paying as PE of 30 for as far as I'm concerned. The teenager of a company continues to learn new tricks which is good but I expect more stumbles.

[winner69]

Book value up to $1.66 a share

at $4.20 trading at 2.5 times Book Value.

Not expensive at this price and cheaper by far than one of its peer group.

Price/book one of key ratios used by big investment managers to assess value.

[Beagle]

Book value up to $1.66 a share

at $4.20 trading at 2.5 times Book Value.

Not expensive at this price and cheaper by far than one of its peer group.

Price/book one of key ratios used by big investment managers to assess value.

You want to go and have coffee with Julian Cook mate. Butter him up and you might get on the board. $80K and a cushy insider position :)

[winner69]

You want to go and have coffee with Julian Cook mate. Butter him up and you might get on the board. $80K and a cushy insider position :)

They reckon Norah makes a decent cuppa. I could take some of my homemade apple turnovers. Sure Norah would enjoy those.

Do they do other things at Board meetings?

[Beagle]

They reckon Norah makes a decent cuppa. I could take some of my homemade apple turnovers. Sure Norah would enjoy those.

Do they do other things at Board meetings?

:lol: That's an open invitation for a free hit but I will resist temptation...but you and Norah could swap recipe's and idea's on the best club sandwiches and savouries at the next asm...gotta keep those pesky shareholders happy, especially the ones that expect a level playing field.

[winner69]

Gas balloons have a habit of deflating once they reach dizzy heights.

Yo are a guru couta

Already below 4 bucks

How far down will it go you reckon

[cyclist]

Well, for once I got something right and sold 1/2 mine at 4.24.

But hang on - I still have to other half.

Bugger!

[percy]

Well, for once I got something right and sold 1/2 mine at 4.24.

But hang on - I still have to other half.

Bugger!

No rejoice.!!
Work out now what your average cost of your remaining SUM shares is.
Happy now??

[winner69]

No rejoice.!!
Work out now what your average cost of your remaining SUM shares is.
Happy now??

Might be free couta

[couta1]

Yo are a guru couta

Already below 4 bucks

How far down will it go you reckon
Lower than the current price, will keep that fiqure to myself for now, don't want to upset the locals.

[couta1]

Lower than the current price, will keep that fiqure to myself for now, don't want to upset the locals.
Hey winner, you must be ready to sell up with that falling price, take a deep breath and bake yourself another nice apple pie:cool:

[couta1]

LOL. It's a sentiment-driven retracement, which is occurring across the board, not specific to this stock.

Nice try, though, mate! Just keeping winner at his baking as he always wants to sell stocks with falling prices.

[winner69]

Just keeping winner at his baking as he always wants to sell stocks with falling prices.

Seeing scales no good at the moment gone off apples. Cheese scones about to go in the oven for lunch.

Should really make a decent batch and take them to the oldies in a village eh ....but closest one is Ryman one.

SUM shareprice a worry though ...watching that squiggly line.

[winner69]

Hey winner, you must be ready to sell up with that falling price, take a deep breath and bake yourself another nice apple pie:cool:

You put the wind up me yesterday but it was one of those I seez nuthin days

But heck the share price on fire today

[longy]

Half year report just released. Look really good at a quick glance.... But I must have missed out something. Any thoughts on it? Thx.

Just bought in a small parcel too.

[trader_jackson]

https://www.nzx.com/companies/SUM/announcements/271378

Sill trading at a premium, but some nice news...

[percy]

Just when you thought things could not get better,than just got a whole lot better.!
Well done SUM.Momentum gaining speed.!
Forecast earnings rising from projected $32mil --$34mil up to $36mil to $39mil is a pleasant surprise.
We are "well positioned"!!!!!

[winner69]

Absolutely stunning news

[iceman]

Yes sure is great news. Going from strength to strength with great sales numbers and underlying earnings beyond our wildest expectations

[winner69]

Rolling 4 quarter sales are now 533 - 341 new and 192 resales.

At this rate they will hit 600 for the full year with new sales totalling 370

No wonder they confident of saying $34m underlying for the year.

The way the property prices are going I reckon real profit of $80m at least

That's 37 cents a share .....easily justifying a share price of $5 or more

Go your good thing

As usual I underestimated full year outlook after June announcement - 600 on rolling 4 quarter basis already reached. Can't go backwards can they

Maybe 650 for the full year

Stunning

[winner69]

New Guy would be impressed

Did New Guy delete himself or something - posts seem to have disappeared

[Beagle]

Absolutely stunning newsBased on the mid point of forward guidance they will enjoy underlying earnings of 17.09 cps which puts them on a current year PE of 22.

I will play the Devil's advocate here, (seems to be my established role with SUM) :) With the booming Auckland market and the concurrent sales of four major developments it appears all their star's have come into alignment this year.

The question is, is this profit growth repeatable going forward given that developments have such a long lead time and there's aren't another 4 major new developments to sell in 2016 or is the concurrent alignment of a number of positive attributes a temporary phenomenon ? The Auckland property market looks irrational to many commentators and although a beneficiary myself I can't see these stratospheric prices lasting.

I know you work on absolute earnings including revaluations, (not underlying), so how does the stock do going forward with less new developments to sell next year and possible devaluations in existing stock ?

[Harvey Specter]

The question is, is this profit growth repeatable going forward given that developments have such a long lead time and there's aren't another 4 major new developments to sell in 2016 or is the concurrent alignment of a number of positive attributes a temporary phenomenon ? What is their current pipeline? From memory, their target build rate was far lower than I thought it should be, but probably sensible while they upskill (since bring stuff inhouse like RYM).

Disc: sold out of all retirement but might start looking again as my situation has changed a bit.

[couta1]

They only have one new site coming on tap this year(Wigram) oh and I forgot to mention that dormant but lovely Boulcott site:eek2:

[skid]

Just when you thought things could not get better,than just got a whole lot better.!
Well done SUM.Momentum gaining speed.!
Forecast earnings rising from projected $32mil --$34mil up to $36mil to $39mil is a pleasant surprise.
We are "well positioned"!!!!!

They definitely got better for today. All you need is the market to get better ...like in august.

[Bjauck]

... The Auckland property market looks irrational to many commentators and although a beneficiary myself I can't see these stratospheric prices lasting.

I know you work on absolute earnings including revaluations, (not underlying), so how does the stock do going forward with less new developments to sell next year and possible devaluations in existing stock ? From memory, including proposed villages, I think that SUM is not over-exposed to Auckland. In relation to already-developed villages, it is under-exposed (it has fewer villages that the Auckland population would otherwise warrant). I think that MET would have greater exposure to Auckland; RYM less.

[winner69]

I know you work on absolute earnings including revaluations, (not underlying), so how does the stock do going forward with less new developments to sell next year and possible devaluations in existing stock ?

Maybe stuffed

Possibly like some other stock that is doing well this year with tailwinds of low oil prices and favourable currency impacts that may not be repeated.

Maybe the 'future' is already priced into both of these stocks

[Beagle]

Maybe stuffed

Possibly like some other stock that is doing well this year with tailwinds of low oil prices and favourable currency impacts that may not be repeated.

Maybe the 'future' is already priced into both of these stocks

A somewhat obscure but nevertheless not entirely irrelevant analogy in as much as clearly both stocks currently enjoy strong tailwinds. Interesting to note that one stock is on a consensus current year forecast PE of only 5.5 reflecting potential correction of tailwind factors and the other on a forecast PE of 22, priced at four times the earnings rate while they're both enjoying a year of very strong earnings growth. Food for thought ? you be the judge mate. Both stocks looking to grow EPS ~ 50% this year.

Harvey, maybe I have this wrong, I don't follow closely anymore. One of the brokers has a build forecast of 400 in FY16...where they are going to build that many I don't know ???
I would say though that credit where's it due. SUM's development margin has improved significantly and clearly last year's appointment of a procurement manager has worked wonders for their construction costs. MET desperately need to find someone with the same level of skills as a medium term target development margin of 15% which they acknowledge they are likely to undershoot in FY16 is really quite pathetic. Disc - I am also completely out of the retirement sector now. The whole sector is fully priced IMO.

Bejauck - Agreed. MET most exposed to potential Auckland correction as a percentage of their village portfolio, then SUM then RYM.

Prospects for Auckland's house prices ? This makes interesting reading and some of the comments hit the nail on the head too, especially the second one down.
http://www.interest.co.nz/property/77892/fewer-chinese-faces-auctions-and-buyers-becoming-more-picky-we-head-towards-summer

[macduffy]

What is their current pipeline? From memory, their target build rate was far lower than I thought it should be, but probably sensible while they upskill (since bring stuff inhouse like RYM).

Disc: sold out of all retirement but might start looking again as my situation has changed a bit.

Latest half year report mentioned a build rate of 400 units for 2016 and going forward. Presumably much of this comes from the Ellerslie units now building and further development at Wigram.

[OldGuy]

Another excellent result by the best in the business.

[couta1]

Another excellent result by the best in the business.
Welcome back New Old Guy, but shouldn't that be second best in the business behind Ryman:cool:

[LAC]

Welcome back New Old Guy, but shouldn't that be second best in the business behind Ryman:cool:

I just knew that line was coming.....

[OldGuy]

Welcome back New Old Guy, but shouldn't that be second best in the business behind Ryman:cool:

Thank you, sir.

p.s. Your devotion to Ryman is adorable, but SUM's growth is on a totally different level. 15% or 50%. I know which I like better :)

[Bjauck]

It looks like the SUM sp increase was pared back by close of market yesterday. Maybe in the current share market and property market, the retirement sector have to produce profit upgrades just for the share prices to remain about level?

[trader_jackson]

It looks like the SUM sp increase was pared back by close of market yesterday. Maybe in the current share market and property market, the retirement sector have to produce profit upgrades just for the share prices to remain about level?

I think its because SUM is already 'very well valued' (not quite overvalued) and there seems to be lofty expectations regrading build rate and sales, which so far they have meet... but with a potentially slowing real estate market (well mainly just in Auckland), and increasing villages being built left right and centre (ie more competition) it will become harder to 'deliver' (in my view - over the coming years, maybe not this year or next year, but in the next decade) and of course the dividend alone (which is peanuts) isn't going to be enough to support it, during these potentially questioning times...

Ryman is "the best in the business" in terms of growth and good management, although SUM isn't far off... (ARV of course still takes the cake from a balance of dividend and growth point of view, and of course in terms of occupation %)

[couta1]

I sense an old battle between OG and TJ about to commence again reading the last bit of the above post, Tui anyone.

[trader_jackson]

I sense an old battle between OG and TJ about to commence again reading the last bit of the above post, Tui anyone.

Yes I shouldn't have said anything, and kept it for the ARV thread.. :cool:

[OldGuy]

Yes I shouldn't have said anything, and kept it for the ARV thread.. :cool:

OldGuy knows better than to debate with the uninformed :)

[trader_jackson]

OldGuy knows better than to debate with the uninformed :)

I'm just looking forward to the results announced in just over a months time (for ARV)...:t_up:

[winner69]

As usual I underestimated full year outlook after June announcement - 600 on rolling 4 quarter basis already reached. Can't go backwards can they

Maybe 650 for the full year

Stunning

Oh dear, 3 months on and they went backwards

Never mind 578 sales for the year a great effort and with big revaluations still coming through a boomer of a full year result will be announced in February

[percy]

Yes another pleasing result.
With the huge tailwinds in this sector.we will see well run companies such as SUM, enjoying a high ongoing growth trajectory.

[TFA]

I think your forecast of 650 was unrealistic. I was forecasting 156 for the quarter which would have got them to 588 so just 10 units short of that.

[Hoop]

http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/SUM%2005012016.png (http://s458.photobucket.com/user/Hoop_1/media/SUM%2005012016.png.html)

[winner69]

I think your forecast of 650 was unrealistic. I was forecasting 156 for the quarter which would have got them to 588 so just 10 units short of that.

May have got a bit excited after Q3 numbers

But then after so many quarters of increasing I didn't expect the rolling 4 quarter number to o backwards either.

TFA - What's your guess for Q1 and FY16

[TFA]

May have got a bit excited after Q3 numbers

But then after so many quarters of increasing I didn't expect the rolling 4 quarter number to o backwards either.

TFA - What's your guess for Q1 and FY16

For F16 I'm working on new of 95/qtr , resale 67/qrt = total 152
or FY new 380 new, 269 resale = total 650
This is about +12% volume gains (new +14% resale +12%)

I note FNZC in October mentioned they believe they may do 400+ new in F16

After 2 years of relatively flat resales growth the 42% jump this year is impressive but highlights that forecasting their results don't go in a straight line.

[troyvdh]

TFA...Is the quality of build ever questioned...Ive driven
through a few Ryman places and they look quite substantial i.e.the units.If you listen to RNZ potentially leaky builds are still occurring around 15 %.Im just thinking when a company whacks out these p[laces by the 100's does quality suffer.......cheers

[percy]

TFA...Is the quality of build ever questioned...Ive driven
through a few Ryman places and they look quite substantial i.e.the units.If you listen to RNZ potentially leaky builds are still occurring around 15 %.Im just thinking when a company whacks out these p[laces by the 100's does quality suffer.......cheers
Quiet the contrary.
With every thing done "in house", every lesson learnt is carried forward.Improving all the time.
By the time you and I get there they will be absolutely perfect.!

[janner]

By the time you and I get there they will be absolutely perfect.!

Already having thoughts about turning you toe's up perc ???

Those are places one goes to, to die :-)

Do you sell many books to retirement homes.. ??

Methinks

It is new clients they look for ... Not new books :-))

[percy]

Hopefully it takes them a good few years to reach perfection.!!!!..lol.
Yet I must admit some of the villages I have seen around the country look pretty good to me.

[limmy]

They wouldn't be where they are today if they couldn't deal with fundamental issues like avoiding leaky homes.

[winner69]

FIrst NZ Cap downgrade Summerset

Least their target is still higher than today's price.

http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/5d8e1b93/first-nz-downgrades-summerset-to-neutral-as-auckland-s-housing-market-cools.html?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=First%20NZ%20downgrades%20Summerset%2 0to%20neutral%20as%20Aucklands%20housing%20market% 20cools&utm_content=First%20NZ%20downgrades%20Summerset%20 to%20neutral%20as%20Aucklands%20housing%20market%2 0cools+CID_fe15b8e7102ea0024f15acbdbd6af2b5&utm_source=Email%20marketing%20software&utm_term=httpwwwsharechatconzarticle5d8e1b93first-nz-downgrades-summerset-to-neutral-as-auckland-s-housing-market-coolshtml

[percy]

Most probably the most positive downgrade I have ever read.!
Thank you for the link.

[Ggcc]

Thanks winner. A great company in its early stage, when comparing to Ryman. I invested a few years back and love the progress summerset continues to make :).

Happy long term investor here

[Bjauck]

Most probably the most positive downgrade I have ever read.!
Thank you for the link. Reading the linked item, it appeared more of a "Clayton's" downgrade. If the word "downgrade" had not been in the title, I would not have known how it would have been categorised. Where the Auckland property prices go from here is a bit of an unknown, but then other things affect the cash income stream.

[Jinx]

Not a lot going on in this thread or the price, anyone up for a price estimate on the 25th of feb?

[percy]

Not a lot going on in this thread or the price, anyone up for a price estimate on the 25th of feb?

10.55 am the price will be $4.02,and at 4.35pm the price will be $3.98.