SUM - Summerset Group

[JoeGrogan]

looks like its gonna test the $5.10 level again, may have to accumulate some more if it falls to low 5's or sub 5.

[couta1]

Not quite a falling knife in my book, rather, someone's just waving it round a bit!

If my allocation of Oceania doesn't look like performing on Friday I might switch the funds into more SUM.

:) Your onto it, just money recycling going on, maybe some who missed out on an allocation or didn't get what they wanted of Oceania are looking to buy on market once it's listed. Ryman also down heavily, so it makes sense. PS-VWAP of just under $5.12 was always going to be a target after that big trade this morning.

[trader_jackson]

I keep chasing this mother down but it doesn't want to find it's bottom, Ryman doing good Roger, get that cider ready mate, still a few weeks to go until it's result so it should hit my target price.:D PS-Might have to sell some Sum if I accumulate too many (Probably not possible) Sum must be one of the only true value stocks left in this current bubbly NZX. PPS-Not at all worried if I end up XXXOS in Sum.

Posted yesterday when the share price was 7 cents higher... Surely you have been buying all week? doubling down every time it went down (which has been every day this week)... hope you have some cash at hand when it dips below $5 this friday! (on track to do so at least... ;))

With a 4 in front of SUM's share price, even I might have to put my OCA investment on hold and get SUM shares

And anyone who think SUM's weakness has to do with OCA listing... would seem crazy that the most comparable, being ARV, is actually up 2.3% so far this week

[macduffy]

And anyone who think SUM's weakness has to do with OCA listing... would seem crazy that the most comparable, being ARV, is actually up 2.3% so far this week

It's not a matter of the "most comparable" but more one of where the most retirement sector money is that might want to have a flutter on OCA.

;)

[couta1]

Posted yesterday when the share price was 7 cents higher... Surely you have been buying all week? doubling down every time it went down (which has been every day this week)... hope you have some cash at hand when it dips below $5 this friday! (on track to do so at least... ;))

With a 4 in front of SUM's share price, even I might have to put my OCA investment on hold and get SUM shares

And anyone who think SUM's weakness has to do with OCA listing... would seem crazy that the most comparable, being ARV, is actually up 2.3% so far this week Yes trader jackson I have been buying several parcels every day this week chasing the price down, pulled my last couple of bids on at $5.12 just before it dropped to $5.10. Will take a breather and see where things head over the next week. Once your holding gets to a certain size then it takes a good sized parcel to move your average price down even half a cent. PS-People wouldn't sell ARV to buy OCA, they are basically the same as opposed to SUM and RYM, hence why the share price has not been affected.

[trader_jackson]

It's not a matter of the "most comparable" but more one of where the most retirement sector money is that might want to have a flutter on OCA.

;)

Actually you and couta1 could have a point, I was thinking of the perspective that one who would invest in ARV would also like OCA (as they are most comparable - which I think we can all agree on) and vice versa (which could be what is proping up ARV recently, although if ARV is way overvalued compared to OCA you'd think we'd see a huge jump in OCA?)

But you guys are saying those in RYM and SUM (maybe MET as well) are wanting to invest in what some (many?) have said is an absolute dog (in terms of growth prospects and business structure) and has terrible management? (this point mainly for OCA)...
So much so, in fact, that it causes a noticable dent in the market cap of a couple much, much larger companies, which are apparently much, much better? (better proven track record and higher growth)
Hmm... Interesting way of looking at it, but maybe Mr Market is having a 'Chris Lee' moment and having a change of heart on ARV and OCA...

[JeremyALD]

Personally I don't think the float for OCA is having that much impact. Afterall why would you start selling down your shares now to free up capital when you don't even know what the opening price will be. Retirement stocks just aren't the in thing at the moment. SUM, MET, RYM are all down 10% to 15% off previous highs. I think the property slow down is having the biggest impact, which is kind of irrational but to me that's the current market vibe. SUM has been subject to this the most because of their multiple buildings in Auckland and the market didn't like the news that some projects might cost a bit more and have a few delays at the shareholder meeting. This negative sentiment has been offset by the great growth story which is why there's plenty of support around the low $5. SUM is well positioned but might take a few months for the share market to start realising it.

[Lewylewylewy]

It's panic about house prices. SUM affected because of recently Auckland report today. Sum have lots of interest in Auckland.

[macduffy]

But you guys are saying those in RYM and SUM (maybe MET as well) are wanting to invest in what some (many?) have said is an absolute dog (in terms of growth prospects and business structure) and has terrible management?

More of a stag than a longterm investment, perhaps. Despite all that is said and written about the risks of participating in IPO's there is still an appetite amongst some to take a punt on a new float. OCA's strike price looks promising in that regard - but we'll see!

[Bjauck]

It's panic about house prices....I think the underlying profitability remains good for SUM....and it has those demographic tailwinds...

However the government's continual downplay imo of the unaffordability of the Auckland housing market cannot conceal the fact that the fulsome values in Auckland are based on historically low interest rates. Some shareholders in SUM had possibly been holding their shares based on the continuing of the gravity defying strength of the Auckland housing market.

Disc: happy long term holder

[BlackPeter]

I think the underlying profitability remains good for SUM....and it has those demographic tailwinds...

However the government's continual downplay imo of the unaffordability of the Auckland housing market cannot conceal the fact that the fulsome values in Auckland are based on historically low interest rates. Some shareholders in SUM had possibly been holding their shares based on the continuing of the gravity defying strength of the Auckland housing market.

Disc: happy long term holder

Just look at these Aussies working hard to kick the Kiwis out of their promised land. They started with the convicted crooks, than they sent the people who they didn't like (i.e affiliation to some gang, even without conviction), than they send back the sick (Aussie take tax but does not pay for Kiwis .... ) and now they are sending home the people with children (or else they have to pay a penalty on education across the ditch). Given that there are still more than 600.000 Kiwis on the other side of the ditch - if only 10% of them come back every year (and I think it will be more) we don't need to worry about dropping property prices in New Zealand any time soon :t_up:!

[couta1]

How keen are the sellers, will they take it down to $5 or below, let's see how irrational the market will behave.

[artemis]

Most of those returning Kiwis will be welcomed with open arms by employers who can't fill vacancies. And the other side of that is those who live here staying rather than heading across the ditch.

At some point the resources sector over there will pick up again, and guess which experienced and hard working families won't be going.

[couta1]

How keen are the sellers, will they take it down to $5 or below, let's see how irrational the market will behave. I'm kicking myself in the pants for not taking the que from the meeting re pressure on their AK developments. No problem long term but I could have got them cheaper, shouldnt have disobeyed my Gutometer, I very rarely do that these days.

[Bjauck]

Just look at these Aussies working hard to kick the Kiwis out of their promised land. They started with the convicted crooks, than they sent the people who they didn't like (i.e affiliation to some gang, even without conviction), than they send back the sick (Aussie take tax but does not pay for Kiwis .... ) and now they are sending home the people with children (or else they have to pay a penalty on education across the ditch). Given that there are still more than 600.000 Kiwis on the other side of the ditch - if only 10% of them come back every year (and I think it will be more) we don't need to worry about dropping property prices in New Zealand any time soon :t_up:! I guess the lenient "special" category for Kiwis can mean whatever the Oz government wants it to - as it has sovereignty over its own migration policies as does NZ. The NZ Government presumably can adjust immigration from other sources to enable housing and infrastructure to develop to cope and not be overwhelmed in order to provide affordable housing for its citizens...I think it is in the interest of Sum to have a stable property market and society. In the long term imo it would be interest of SUM to have a broad base of home owning Kiwis to supply a large potential market of future retirees for its villages

[dobby41]

How keen are the sellers, will they take it down to $5 or below, let's see how irrational the market will behave.

Irrational or some people put different weightings (and readings) on the same things.
Goes up - fair call and reasonable.
Goes down and irrational.

[couta1]

Irrational or some people put different weightings (and readings) on the same things.
Goes up - fair call and reasonable.
Goes down and irrational. Irrational based on the current PE, deep imbedded value in the stock and huge tailwinds. Selling pressure due to huge volume of money that has come out of the sector, a lot of that being recycled to Oceania IMO, combined with the negative comments re AK portion of Sum's portfolio.

[Beagle]

For what its worth after the SUM meeting I have
1. Left current year forecast at an underlying profit growth of 25% for $70m based on no change in development margin for FY17 22.2% (2017 underlying PE 15.9 on 32 cps at $5.08) Note average analyst forecast underlying is 31 cps.
2. Wound back my expectations of build rate in 2018 from 500 to 450.
3. Reviewed my development margin expectations for FY18 down from 23% to 22.2% unchanged from FY16 and FY17. This gives underlying profit of approx. $80m for growth of approx. 15% based solely of increased volume and value of resales.
4. Left my FY19 build rate target unchanged from original expectations of 500 units and I am modelling a 23% development margin that year. Its a long way out but I see FY19 as $95 to $100m underlying profit.

As you can see from the above my expectations of super normal growth continuing at around half the previous 48% growth rate, (around 25% for the foreseeable future) have been pared back quite a bit. I think their average growth over the next three years is late teens, (percent per annum).

These assumptions are based on a stable housing market with nominal growth in prices matching the inflation rate.

I believe there is the real possibility that development margins could exceed my expectations if the company can be convinced to take advantage of the pricing power of fixing the weekly fees for life. After speaking with Julian after the meeting in this regard I will follow him up in writing in due course outlining my thesis in respect of this point in significantly more detail.

Worth remembering that SUM have a total of only 6 developed or proposed retirement villages in Auckland. Not the heavy concentration that some on here are implying and the cost pressures only affets proposed new villages and those currently under construction in Auckland.

Aucklanders in ST John's and Parnell moving from their cold old villa's worth circa $2m into a nice brand new well insulated apartment / condominium/ unit for circa $1.2 - $1.5m and supportive community are going to have to accept that the cost of construction in Auckland is at a record high and they might not free up as much capital as part of their downsizing / change of circumstances move as they would have perhaps liked too but nonetheless all the other benefits of retirement village community living are still there and they still have plenty left over. Part of the answer is educating the sales force to be prepared to answer difficult questions that may occur due to higher pricing and part of the answer is probably in fixing weekly fees for life so people have the certainty of their outgoings for life. By doing this I think they can command circa $50,000 more per apartment than their current variable fees for life methodology.

Our elderly brethren crave the security of fixed weekly fees for life. As I explained to Julian after the meeting my Mum is in a retirement village where they were able to vote for and chose either fixed weekly fees for life at a 6% increase on the current rate or stay with the status quo. Bearing in mind the average resident is approx. half way through their 10 year approx. stay I found it incredibly useful market evidence that a full 99.6% of residents chose the fixed weekly fee for life option.
Offer this option to new potential residents at SUM villages at an appropriate cost neutral rate to SUM itself and you dramatically increase the attractiveness of a SUM's community living. Leverage that attractiveness to eliminate the cost pressures the company is currently facing. That's the guts of it.

I will outline in specific detail how I believe this fixed weekly option will be cost neutral from an operational viewpoint and significantly advantageous from a development margin and pricing power viewpoint to SUM in my letter to Julian in due course.

[RTM]

I'm kicking myself in the pants for not taking the que from the meeting re pressure on their AK developments. No problem long term but I could have got them cheaper, shouldnt have disobeyed my Gutometer, I very rarely do that these days.

So so easy looking backwards Couta, I got a few at $5.11 and thought I was clever as well. And I was for a week or two.

[dobby41]

Irrational based on the current PE, deep imbedded value in the stock and huge tailwinds. Selling pressure due to huge volume of money that has come out of the sector, a lot of that being recycled to Oceania IMO, combined with the negative comments re AK portion of Sum's portfolio.

I don't doubt that you have a rational for your view.
I also don't agree, or disagree, with your view.
My comment was around the idea that if the market had a view that differed from your is must be irrational - ie your view is the only rational one.

People who don't share your view would probably consider it to be irrational.

[couta1]

So so easy looking backwards Couta, I got a few at $5.11 and thought I was clever as well. And I was for a week or two. Too true, I'm pretty hard on myself if I disobey my inklings and forge ahead prematurely these days.Will be really interesting to see what happens tomorrow once Oceania lists, will it result in further weakness, or a bounce, all will be revealed.

[vin]

Looking at jumping on board... Hmmm

[Beagle]

http://www.4-traders.com/SUMMERSET-GROUP-HOLDINGS-10089438/consensus/

[couta1]

Apart from that one big sale yesterday pre open, the stock is falling on low volume, mainly small holders doing the selling. PS-She's going sub $5 for sure.

[Ggcc]

Almost looking like an all in for me. I must wait my time further. Funds available. Do I sell my others to get the high growth stock with big upside......? Is there rationale behind this I just can't see...... when others are in fear get greedy, but what are they fleeing from? Oh the internalisation I am going through lol

[RupertBear]

Almost looking like an all in for me. I must wait my time further. Funds available. Do I sell my others to get the high growth stock with big upside......? Is there rationale behind this I just can't see...... when others are in fear get greedy, but what are they fleeing from? Oh the internalisation I am going through lol

Well I just bought SUM, means if they go up I have SUM and if they go down I will get SUM more, covers both possiblities for me :)

[BlackPeter]

Apart from that one big sale yesterday pre open, the stock is falling on low volume, mainly small holders doing the selling. PS-She's going sub $5 for sure.

Dropping through the MA200 as we speak. On the other hand - it is not the first time she did that and recovered. Let's look at the bright side ... still ways above the MA400 :t_up:;

At this stage I will just ignore the "noise" and assume that it will become right in a week or so when the new IPO has settled down and any oversubscribed funds returned, the SP will strengthen again. Maybe even an opportunity to do a couta ...and buy some more?

Discl - holding (L-sized)

[Beagle]

100 day MA is $4.96

[couta1]

100 day MA is $4.96 Hey Roger, don't you normally sell out if a stock goes below the MA100.:D

[Beagle]

Hey Roger, don't you normally sell out if a stock goes below the MA100.:D

Three trading days confirmed breech of 100 day MA is what's required for me to trigger a TA sell signal. Most times I follow unless I believe the fundamental long term valuation story is simply too good :)

[couta1]

Three trading days confirmed breech of 100 day MA is what's required for me to trigger a TA sell signal. Most times I follow unless I believe the fundamental long term valuation story is simply too good :) I just knew you would come up with an escape clause.

[dabsman]

Just picked up some more. Fundamentals are sound and I'm holding these for my own retirement so not too concerned with some downside now and again. Waiting for OCA tomorrow but maybe not a great time to open with this sector taking a bath? I dont mind accumulating RYM, MET and SUM if they keep dropping

[percy]

Three trading days confirmed breech of 100 day MA is what's required for me to trigger a TA sell signal. Most times I follow unless I believe the fundamental long term valuation story is simply too good :)

On my high "conviction" stocks such as SUM,HBL,EBO,THL, and TNR I would need the 200 day EMA to be soundly broken.
Then I would review my research,before deciding to sell or not.
On stocks I am not sure about, I would consider selling using 100 day EMA,as a sell signal.
I do use the 100 day EMA when considering purchasing a stock.
But wait there's more.I usually back test a stock, to see what EMA has had a history of being right for that stock.

[Beagle]

I just knew you would come up with an escape clause.

Creative Accounting 101 :D Like many on here I'm holding these for my retirement in more ways than one. I think Julian's developed nicely as a CEO albeit with some help from helpful shareholders from time to time and the caliber of the board and breath of experience is first class as I am sure you agree mate.


On high "conviction" stocks such as SUM,HBL or TNR I would need the 200 day EMA to be soundly broken.
Then I would review my research,before deciding to sell or not.

Agreed Percy although after the meeting I've already reviewed my forecast as posted earlier today. I think the current sell down is based on the fact that the disclosure made at the annual meeting is perceived as a serious headwind for the company whereas I see it as simply an opportunity for the company to reevaluate its marketing methodology, i.e. fixed price weekly fees for life.
I think the board and management can be trusted to adapt to the changing market conditions in Auckland and continue their growth path.
SUM now trades at a forward PE based on underlying earnings below the average for the NZX50.

I suspect some of the hot money is exiting SUM and some people are priming the pump for Oceania tomorrow.

[percy]

Creative Accounting 101 :D Like many on here I'm holding these for my retirement in more ways than one. I think Julian's developed nicely as a CEO albeit with some help from helpful shareholders from time to time and the caliber of the board and breath of experience is first class as I am sure you agree mate.



Agreed Percy although after the meeting I've already reviewed my forecast as posted earlier today. I think the current sell down is based on the fact that the disclosure made at the annual meeting is perceived as a serious headwind for the company whereas I see it as simply an opportunity for the company to reevaluate its marketing methodology, i.e. fixed price weekly fees for life.
I think the board and management can be trusted to adapt to the changing market conditions in Auckland and continue their growth path.
SUM now trades at a forward PE based on underlying earnings below the average for the NZX50.

I totally agree with your analysis.

[Fox]

My thoughts are that this recent dip amongst MET/SUM/RYM is due to recent property sales metrics released. Auckland has seen both a reduced sales price and listing volumes for April, although partly to blame is school hols. and a few long weekends I suspect. Have a read of the NBR article from yesterday for more info.

The listed prop. funds have tumbled down in the last few months which promotes the idea that this lacking momentum in the SP is due to property concerns amongst the market. ARV has retained its high price recently, so the idea of investors switching from the currently listed retirement stocks into OCA seems a bit far-fetched as I believe ARV ranks higher in the books than OCA. The combination of ARV having low property exposure added to the fact they are a close relative to OCA, means that property is the major concern.

SUM are arguably more heavily invested/leveraged in the development side of things, especially in Auckland, which most likely explains Mr Market's enthusiasm for it now. I believe the poor April data is a one-off and the market is taking this as a complete trend reversal, effectively re-pricing this into the sector.

[macduffy]

I suspect some of the hot money is exiting SUM and some people are priming the pump for Oceania tomorrow

Yes, a lot of it might be 'hot' - in the sense of looking for a quick buck, not in the 'hot/illegal' sense - and therefore may find its way back to SUM when the market settles around OCA. Meanwhile, I'm not in a hurry to add SUM more but there will be a time to do so.

[sb9]

Apart from that one big sale yesterday pre open, the stock is falling on low volume, mainly small holders doing the selling. PS-She's going sub $5 for sure.

Not quite...here are few big ones..





8 93 2:21:08 pm 500 50,000 $250,000 Off Market







1 108 3:21:16 pm 500 137,000 $685,000 Off Market

[couta1]

One good thing about being in the Red on a stock like Sum is, you can just relax, sit back and let a temporal blip as is currently happening simply pass ,as it gives way to the gale force tailwinds and those thousands of elderly folk looking to buy Sum units as a lifestyle choice.

[JeremyALD]

One good thing about being in the Red on a stock like Sum is, you can just relax, sit back and let a temporal blip as is currently happening simply pass ,as it gives way to the gale force tailwinds and those thousands of elderly folk looking to buy Sum units as a lifestyle choice.

I agree Couta. Look forward to seeing where this is at in a few months.

[winner69]

SUM share price got post ASM blues

To much cider giving an euphoric hangover or something

[Joshuatree]

Hangover in a waterbed punctured by falling knives, diced carrots everywhere. Hope its short-lived for holders.

[Jinx]

Topped up today. Interesting looking at the all time chart: 9 months ago the price was at 4.99, the last time the price went sideways for that amount of time was may 2014 - may 2015, there was a jump in price following it.

I can't imagine the price can go much below $4.50 without news so i'll take my chances at today's price.

[JeremyALD]

I had to laugh when The NZ Herald explained SUM, RYM and METs decrease today as a result of a "sell down of high yielding stocks" like where do they even get their information?!

[couta1]

Topped up today. Interesting looking at the all time chart: 9 months ago the price was at 4.99, the last time the price went sideways for that amount of time was may 2014 - may 2015, there was a jump in price following it.

I can't imagine the price can go much below $4.50 without news so i'll take my chances at today's price. For the price to go near $4.50 or below, serious s- -t would need to occur IMO.

[Putty]

SUM was of interest as a long-term hold for me, so pretty happy to come in at $5.00.

The NZ market reacts so erratically at times, should take advantage more often perhaps!

[BigBob]

SUM was of interest as a long-term hold for me, so pretty happy to come in at $5.00.

The NZ market reacts so erratically at times, should take advantage more often perhaps!

Same here...

Jumped the gun a bit last week at 515, but very happy to top up yesterday just over 500...

[dobby41]

Maybe I should purchase some more - last I purchased was at $1.40.

[thestg]

I got in 21st April at $5.135 & yesterday at $5.00.

I just sold 3/4 of my AIR shares so I be looking at buying more SUM today.

I Plan to hold short SUM term only (with close stop loss set), as I want to buy back into AIR at the end of June/Beginning July when hopefully they will be cheaper & with a bit of luck AIR will rise from then on, before going XD in Sept.

Well at least it is a plan & hopefully it will work! Need a bit of risk now & then.

[Mickey]

I got in 21st April at $5.135 & yesterday at $5.00.

I just sold 3/4 of my AIR shares so I be looking at buying more SUM today.

I Plan to hold short SUM term only (with close stop loss set), as I want to buy back into AIR at the end of June/Beginning July when hopefully they will be cheaper & with a bit of luck AIR will rise from then on, before going XD in Sept.

Well at least it is a plan & hopefully it will work! Need a bit of risk now & then.

My plan is very similar to you except that I sold all of AIR with a view to getting back in later. SUM's dividend yield is still too low and doesn't meet my criteria for retirement buy and hold stocks. Rather, it sits comfortably in the shorter term growth portion of my portfolio that I use as a stepping stone to increase my dividend paying portion. Picked up a few more yesterday at 500 and may add more depending on which way it heads in the next few days.

[Zaphod]

SUM is also in my long-term portfolio for it's CG potential. I'm not really interested in the dividends at all, and I would actually prefer that they don't pay any if the cash is better used to build more sites & facilities.

I first bought in circa $2.80 mark, so happy thus far. Will top up when the opportunity presents itself.

[Xerof]

There's a price GAP between ~4.93 and 5.00 which is being closed. Might buy some more on Monday

8830

[winner69]

That Tegel Chairman Ogden who packed a sad the other day seems to jinx a few other companies lately - also a director of Warehouse And Summerset Group

I prefer lucky directors whose good fortune rubs off on the companies they run

[trader_jackson]

There's a price GAP between ~4.93 and 5.00 which is being closed. Might buy some more on Monday

I am sorry to say, because now OCA is listed SUM will now skyrocket up again, because SUM only went down because of OCA, right? (I don't believe this, but some on here like to think this)

[Ggcc]

Waiting in the corner with money ready to invest....... how low will summerset go is the question? I think growth in profit will still be within 35-40 percent for the year and more growth on the horizon. But then the guy who wrote rich dad poor dad expects a market crash within the next three years........? Oh we live in interesting times. What should we invest in for the future......? My guess the elderly 😊...

Do your own research of course 😊

[couta1]

Waiting in the corner with money ready to invest....... how low will summerset go is the question? I think growth in profit will still be within 35-40 percent for the year and more growth on the horizon. But then the guy who wrote rich dad poor dad expects a market crash within the next three years........? Oh we live in interesting times. What should we invest in for the future......? My guess the elderly ...

Do your own research of course  Indicators showing it's getting into oversold territory.

[JeremyALD]

Indicators showing it's getting into oversold territory.

Hard to believe it's $4.95. It's lower than before they announced their end of year results which beat expectations! I think it's heading lower in the short term, might need to ride this one out.

[couta1]

Hard to believe it's $4.95. It's lower than before they announced their end of year results which beat expectations! I think it's heading lower in the short term, might need to ride this one out. Definately a ride out, too good a stock to sell out on a market over reaction. PS-Down 5% currently

[Master98]

MET sp already drop below 4 traders valuation range $6.61~$7.45, SUM sp still inside 4 traders valuation range $4.7~$6.18, so SUM sp theoretically still has more space to drop.

[couta1]

MET sp already drop below 4 traders valuation range $6.61~$7.45, SUM sp still inside 4 traders valuation range $4.7~$6.18, so SUM sp theoretically still has more space to drop. And you believe 4 traders? take a look at some of their other valuations on other stocks and cringe. PS-Throwing darts probably just as accurate a method as using their valuations.:cool:

[trader_jackson]

... Selling pressure due to huge volume of money that has come out of the sector, a lot of that being recycled to Oceania IMO...


Your onto it, just money recycling going on, maybe some who missed out on an allocation or didn't get what they wanted of Oceania are looking to buy on market once it's listed. Ryman also down heavily, so it makes sense. PS-VWAP of just under $5.12 was always going to be a target after that big trade this morning.


Not guilty, couldn't buy that many without a margin account.:D PS-Hey Roger, that patient person got their 100k at $5.16. Looks like another good day to buy.

Don't mean to rip into you couta1, but given you've been buying left right and centre for the past few weeks thought I'd bring up the above posts, which were only done a few days back (yes, in May)

Now that oceania listed, rather unsuccessfully, I thought SUM was meant to go straight back up?

Even the "old dogs" ARV and OCA didn't finish in the red, MET and RYM managed to get into the green even... crazy to think that patient person could have been just a fraction more patient and got a 21 cent discount... who would have thought?
SUM how the share price is still searching for a bottom

[JeremyALD]

Don't mean to rip into you couta1, but given you've been buying left right and centre for the past few weeks thought I'd bring up the above posts, which were only done a few days back (yes, in May)

Now that oceania listed, rather unsuccessfully, I thought SUM was meant to go straight back up?

Even the "old dogs" ARV and OCA didn't finish in the red, MET and RYM managed to get into the green even... crazy to think that patient person could have been just a fraction more patient and got a 21 cent discount... who would have thought?
SUM how the share price is still searching for a bottom

To be fair you can't always buy at the bottom can you. $5.15 still seems like pretty good valued based on fundamentals and performance.

[couta1]

Trader Jackson, I've already posted over on the Oceania thread that it turned out that the OCA listing wasn't the main cause of the current SP drop in the sector, but rather a combination of factors.PS-We can only post how we view things at any given point in time.PPS-You can always buy shares cheaper than you did unless you got them for nothing.

[Beagle]

I am sorry to say, because now OCA is listed SUM will now skyrocket up again, because SUM only went down because of OCA, right? (I don't believe this, but some on here like to think this)


Don't mean to rip into you couta1, but given you've been buying left right and centre for the past few weeks thought I'd bring up the above posts, which were only done a few days back (yes, in May)

Now that oceania listed, rather unsuccessfully, I thought SUM was meant to go straight back up?

Even the "old dogs" ARV and OCA didn't finish in the red, MET and RYM managed to get into the green even... crazy to think that patient person could have been just a fraction more patient and got a 21 cent discount... who would have thought?
SUM how the share price is still searching for a bottom

Crickey...talk about rubbing salt into the wound, ease up there mate, surely the salt shaker is empty by now !

[trader_jackson]

Crickey...talk about rubbing salt into the wound, ease up there mate, surely the salt shaker is empty by now !

Yes, the salt shaker is now empty... I don't want couta1 to interpret it further than a bit of banter ;)

Things are certainly interesting across the sector right now... I for one would have thought the OCA listing would have got alot better... however, it seems SUM firms seem to be being hit more than most.;)

[couta1]

Crickey...talk about rubbing salt into the wound, ease up there mate, surely the salt shaker is empty by now ! All good mate, I'm well used to riding out major storms as you know, this is only a small passing front on our way to SUM exceptional weather ahead.

[macduffy]

All good mate, I'm well used to riding out major storms as you know, this is only a small passing front on our way to SUM exceptional weather ahead.

Yes, I think so, couta. Only relatively small volume today and only really edging down a few cents. Indicates lack of buyers rather than strong selling in my book. I'll wait for the upturn and then buy a few more.

[Putty]

Not a fun sector in these last few weeks...

[couta1]

Yes, I think so, couta. Only relatively small volume today and only really edging down a few cents. Indicates lack of buyers rather than strong selling in my book. I'll wait for the upturn and then buy a few more. Yeah, no real conviction in the selling. Looking at the volumes across at Rym and Met also, it's like the money has dried up at the moment.

[Xerof]

There's a price GAP between ~4.93 and 5.00 which is being closed. Might buy some more on Monday

8830

The gap has been comfortably filled. Most of Xerof's orders also comfortably filled. One left, but it can go up now, please:)

[oldtech]

Your wish appears to have been granted ... $4.96 and climbing :t_up:

[iceman]

Pretty happy having put all my available cash(small amount) to work in SUM at $4,96 today. Time will tell if I jumped too early but I am content

[Xerof]

I expect that special crossing of 500k at $4.955 largely completed the sellers interest. OTOSOTC, the buyer is showing SUM confidence

[Beagle]

Pretty happy having put all my available cash(small amount) to work in SUM at $4,96 today. Time will tell if I jumped too early but I am content

Good on ya mate. This hound just about ran our of salvia licking his wounds at $4.90 this morning...I was a sad dog for a while there so figured it must be time to do some proper work for once rather than wasting time on here LOL.

[Ghost Monkey]

Pretty happy having put all my available cash(small amount) to work in SUM at $4,96 today. Time will tell if I jumped too early but I am content


Well, that's better than I got. They part traded my order.......... a total of 56 shares at $4.96!!! A MIGHTY holding indeed!

[couta1]

Good on ya mate. This hound just about ran our of salvia licking his wounds at $4.90 this morning...I was a sad dog for a while there so figured it must be time to do some proper work for once rather than wasting time on here LOL. You really need to learn to multi task mate, you should be able to post and trade shares whilst working, attending an AGM, out boat fishing, skiing, and watching a film at the pictures, did I leave anything out?

[Beagle]

You really need to learn to multi task mate, you should be able to post and trade shares whilst working, attending an AGM, out boat fishing, skiing, and watching a film at the pictures, did I leave anything out?

:lol: Its hard to teach an old dog new tricks :)

[JeremyALD]

Hmm back over $5.

Should I buy SUM more? I'm already over invested in this one but I keep wanting to go back :p

[Beagle]

All good mate, I'm well used to riding out major storms as you know, this is only a small passing front on our way to SUM exceptional weather ahead.

Hope so mate, at least its stopped raining. Maybe the clouds will part soon and we'll see SUM sun again. I like drinking free cider in the sun :D

[macduffy]

Yes, I think so, couta. Only relatively small volume today and only really edging down a few cents. Indicates lack of buyers rather than strong selling in my book. I'll wait for the upturn and then buy a few more.

It may be a false dawn at this stage but I've added a few - and will await further strength.

:)

[Beagle]

Pretty happy having put all my available cash(small amount) to work in SUM at $4,96 today. Time will tell if I jumped too early but I am content

Nice timing mate, I squeezed a few more into my portfolio at $5 the other day, didn't do quite as well as you.

[Ggcc]

I was too late. I was waiting for just 10 cents lower. $4.80 was my hoping point....... I just did not want to catch the falling knife further. Bought some more a couple of weeks back at $5.15, so still happy and sitting good.

[iceman]

I was too late. I was waiting for just 10 cents lower. $4.80 was my hoping point....... I just did not want to catch the falling knife further. Bought some more a couple of weeks back at $5.15, so still happy and sitting good.

Good buying at these levels I reckon

[oldtech]

I squeezed a few in at $4.95 on Monday ... watched a little nervously on Tuesday as the price continued to head down briefly, but now that it's at $5.16 I'm smiling. :)

No more spare money to invest at this stage, hoping to sit back and enjoy the climb.

[couta1]

No end to house price growth according to Trade Me. National average asking price up 10.2% year on year to $644600. The elderly will still have plenty of money to buy a lovely retirement unit with spare change. Last months figures that contributed to SP drop just an anomaly due to Easter and school holidays, as you were people, it's business as usual for SUM.

[Beagle]

No end to house price growth according to Trade Me. National average asking price up 10.2% year on year to $644600. The elderly will still have plenty of money to buy a lovely retirement unit with spare change. Last months figures that contributed to SP drop just an anomaly due to Easter and school holidays, as you were people, it's business as usual for SUM.

You make an excellent point about the national average price mate. There's been a fixation of late about the increased building costs and real estate prices in Auckland but the fact of the matter is SUM have 21 villages in total, currently completed or in development. Of those only 4 are in Auckland. In total including villages completed, currently in development and proposed sites currently bare land, (27 in total), 6 are in Auckland and 21 spread throughout the country. We need to be mindful that Auckland's problems don't dominate our focus and take a wider perspective.

[sb9]

http://www.interest.co.nz/property/87666/median-house-prices-slipped-11-regions-last-month-set-record-highs-five-auckland

Another viewpoint on house prices.

[Bjauck]

Back in January...

"The other main urban centres are also classified as severely unaffordable - Hamilton at 6.2, Christchurch 5.9, Wellington 5.8, and Dunedin 5.4."
"Overall, housing in New Zealand is rated as severely unaffordable, with a median multiple of 5.9."

http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/business/322858/housing-in-many-nz-cities-'severely-unaffordable'

Although Auckland is extremely unaffordable, it is not just an Auckland problem. Housing has been allowed to rise to such historically high multiples on the back of high immigration, foreign investor interest and historically low interest rates. The higher it was/is allowed to get; the more susceptible to a steep correction when factors turn imo.

[dela47]

First time poster - long time follower. Really appreciate the remarkable contribution many of you make and the improvement of knowledge for all that comes with such great discussion.

I think the majority of us here can agree that, long term SUM are a growth story that will continue to serve the increasing need for aged care.

Apologies if this has already been discussed, but what are our thoughts on the effect on the SP of a slight correction in the market (flat line growth for 2-3 years, then a period of average house price rises). One would think this risk is being factored in to an extent, but how many loose hands will we have if this levelling off of prices begins to occur?

I back SUM long term, my question is really around the practical effects on profits, growth and the SP in a downturn/flat line of property prices.

I appreciate the business model (to an extent) in the fact that SUM don’t ‘lose’ per se if prices are to drop (in terms of resale of units), they should still have a reasonable development margin / ability to buy more land to meet future demand, and they are purchasing and building units for long term hold which will inevitably catch the next cycle and meet the growing demand. But could some of the better minds here explain what a low/negative price growth environment will mean financially and how the market might react to this?

Appreciate no one has a crystal ball but would be interested to hear views / learn a bit more.

[percy]

Welcome dela47.
Reading both RYM and SUM reports, you will note both companies have clearly stated,
The property market has NO affect,effect or defect on them.
Both have been through a number of property cycles over the past 20 years,so I would expect they would know.

[Beagle]

First time poster - long time follower. Really appreciate the remarkable contribution many of you make and the improvement of knowledge for all that comes with such great discussion.

I think the majority of us here can agree that, long term SUM are a growth story that will continue to serve the increasing need for aged care.

Apologies if this has already been discussed, but what are our thoughts on the effect on the SP of a slight correction in the market (flat line growth for 2-3 years, then a period of average house price rises). One would think this risk is being factored in to an extent, but how many loose hands will we have if this levelling off of prices begins to occur?

I back SUM long term, my question is really around the practical effects on profits, growth and the SP in a downturn/flat line of property prices.

I appreciate the business model (to an extent) in the fact that SUM don’t ‘lose’ per se if prices are to drop (in terms of resale of units), they should still have a reasonable development margin / ability to buy more land to meet future demand, and they are purchasing and building units for long term hold which will inevitably catch the next cycle and meet the growing demand. But could some of the better minds here explain what a low/negative price growth environment will mean financially and how the market might react to this?

Appreciate no one has a crystal ball but would be interested to hear views / learn a bit more.

Welcome to the forum. You tend to find in that sort of environment that bare land sites for development have a high beta coefficient and fall much more than average house prices.
Given the lead time between acquiring development sites and completing them the argument I made a little while back which I stand by is that a moderate correction is actually good for SUM as it opens up access to potentially acquiring more development sites at very attractive prices. SUM recently expanded their debt facility to $600m and one of the stated reasons was to provide headroom in the event of a property downturn. I think the market has been concerned for some months about the softening prices in Auckland and that's already fully factored into the current price which is down circa 10% from its peak in Sept 2016. Company is growing it EPS strongly..keeps getting cheaper every year due to strong EPS growth. Its currently at its lowest ever forward PE since listing.
Average forward PE since listing over five years ago, (thanks to Winner 69 for previous analysis is 27), current forward PE is 16.5. Concerns over Auckland real estate prices and construction costs are overdone in my view in the context of Auckland being only 6 sites inclusive of proposed villages of the companies total of 27 including proposed villages.

[Baa_Baa]

snip ..
I back SUM long term, my question is really around the practical effects on profits, growth and the SP in a downturn/flat line of property prices.

I appreciate the business model (to an extent) in the fact that SUM don’t ‘lose’ per se if prices are to drop (in terms of resale of units), they should still have a reasonable development margin / ability to buy more land to meet future demand, and they are purchasing and building units for long term hold which will inevitably catch the next cycle and meet the growing demand. But could some of the better minds here explain what a low/negative price growth environment will mean financially and how the market might react to this?

Appreciate no one has a crystal ball but would be interested to hear views / learn a bit more.

Hey, welcome dela47, post more, share your thoughts. You've attracted some comments with a well considered posting, which you will no doubt take into account.

My view is that while I agree all the upside commentary of the holders in the retirement sector, albeit they quibble about which of the company's is the best investment, frankly you could throw a dart at the dartboard of choices, as it appears they will all do very well in time on the tailwind of an ageing population. Probably one should just buy the whole sector and reflect on it later?

I sense an underlying question though, whether the sector is immune to an overall market downturn. I do think yes they are, but temper that view with a capital sensitive perspective. If one is not capital sensitive they would buy the sector now, at any price, and hold forever.

Some people will buy shares in companies with a view that it is irrelevant what the market prices it at, because the entity makes sustainable profits and those will be distributed to the shareholders. Even if it hurts seeing capital value fluctuate, sometimes even to nosebleed levels.

Others will participate when it suits them to scalp the dividends, and even although they believe in the sector, they're monitoring their upside and are happy to trade in and out on the expectation, but not promise, of a payout on capital invested.

Others however don't give a toss about the company's except that their share price is growing, they will usually be astute and well informed, buy low and sell high, whether or not dividends are paid out, which if they are while holding it is a bonus if it happens but not a prerequisite to buying in the first place.

See, it all depends on ones investment and/or trading perspective and we're all different. Finding ones place in that spectrum is surprisingly challenging, but when you do, it's just a rinse and repeat cycle of applying your investment or trading strategy.

[janner]

Hey, welcome dela47, post more, share your thoughts.

I sense an underlying question though, whether the sector is immune to an overall market downturn. I do think yes they are, but temper that view with a capital sensitive perspective. If one is not capital sensitive they would buy the sector now, at any price, and hold forever.

Some people will buy shares in companies with a view that it is irrelevant what the market prices it at, because the entity makes sustainable profits and those will be distributed to the shareholders. Even if it hurts seeing capital value fluctuate, sometimes even to nosebleed levels.

Others will participate when it suits them to scalp the dividends, and even although they believe in the sector, they're monitoring their upside and are happy to trade in and out on the expectation, but not promise, of a payout on capital invested.

Others however don't give a toss about the company's except that their share price is growing, they will usually be astute and well informed, buy low and sell high, whether or not dividends are paid out, which if they are while holding it is a bonus if it happens but not a prerequisite to buying in the first place.

See, it all depends on ones investment and/or trading perspective and we're all different. Finding ones place in that spectrum is surprisingly challenging, but when you do, it's just a rinse and repeat cycle of applying your investment or trading strategy.

You have said it all Baa_Baa. There is no certainty .. You do the research... You decide.. You send the Buy/Sells..

In reading this very good site... It is still up to your interpretation.

Welcome dela47. Live long and prosper.. ( and of course, share )... :-)))

[trader_jackson]

Welcome dela47

All the things said above are very informative so I won't bother reiterating it.

sharetrader is a great place to discover info, and see opinions... however I would use it, along with multiple other sources and research to form your own view, and not rely solely on what one or some may be saying (it would also be nice of course if you were to share your view!)

At the end of the day, there is really only one thing that is certain: shares will either go up, stay the same... or go down. ;)

[Gunny]

Just received funds from sale of parents summerset apartment. Purchased 2005 for 235K, received 177K. Informed was resold for 450K last month.

Gunny

[Beagle]

Just received funds from sale of parents summerset apartment. Purchased 2005 for 235K, received 177K. Informed was resold for 450K last month.

Gunny

I trust your parents really enjoyed twelve wonderful years of living in a supportive caring Summerset community. If you feel a little disenfranchised by the size of your inheritance I have a suggestion for you. Invest the $177K in SUM shares, (currently trading at their lowest PE ever since listing). Even if they only grow their earnings at the same long term rate as RYM is at 15% compound per annum your $177,000 will be worth $947,000 in twelve years time plus dividends along the way, (assuming no expansion in the current record low PE). It has been said that compound growth is the eighth wonder of the world and now that you have the cash in hand you can take advantage by using this system to your advantage :)

My Mum is six years into living in a supportive retirement village in the Hibiscus coast just north of Auckland. The experience has been really good for her because she has a supportive caring network around her rather than being a lonely old widow on her own in suburbia. We knew when she moved in that Dad would die soon afterwards as he had dementia. He died about 4 years ago and the support from within the community was wonderful and really eased the life change for her. Not for one minute do I begrudge her the happiest existence possible notwithstanding its not in my best financial interests, its her money !

[winner69]

Just received funds from sale of parents summerset apartment. Purchased 2005 for 235K, received 177K. Informed was resold for 450K last month.

Gunny

Thanks for sharing gunny. No doubt your folks were well looked after and enjoyed their time in the village.

Numbers you provided just show why the likes of Summerset are great long term investments.

Like McDonalds Corporation the money is in the buildings - not the hamburgers

[kiwico]

Like McDonalds Corporation the money is in the buildings - not the hamburgers

As anyone who's watched The Founder movie will know. It's a very interesting take on the rise of Ray Kroc and his move to franchise MacDonald's - he only started making money when he moved into the real estate business instead of trying to survive on a share of the costs of selling burgers. Highly recommended.

[Beagle]

If I can get Julian Cook to understand the pricing power of "fixed priced burgers for life" they'll make something rather than nothing from the operation of their villages and boost development margins too !

[Gunny]

Roger,Very happy with what they did and have no complaints on the gain to summerset. I am sure it put 5 years or more on their life's by moving in to Aotea, they had a great time. the 177K to 450K just interesting data is all. We were told they currently have a waiting list of about 50 potential buyers.Have summerset shares already. Been in and out for the last 5 years or so. mum is now in rest home care at enliven after dads passing at 91, unfortunately we had to relocate her to get the level of care now required. She is doing well, staff there great as well. Keeping track of her assets now to manage when subsidies kick in etc.Gunny

[Bjauck]

Roger,Very happy with what they did and have no complaints on the gain to summerset. I am sure it put 5 years or more on their life's by moving in to Aotea, they had a great time. the 177K to 450K just interesting data is all. We were told they currently have a waiting list of about 50 potential buyers.Have summerset shares already. Been in and out for the last 5 years or so. mum is now in rest home care at enliven after dads passing at 91, unfortunately we had to relocate her to get the level of care now required. She is doing well, staff there great as well. Keeping track of her assets now to manage when subsidies kick in etc.Gunny

A pity that your Mum could not get the care she needs at her Summerset village. However it mostly sounds like a win-win situation - your folks had a great time in their Summerset environment with what can be stressful matters taken care for them. Summerset earned a good return by taking on responsibility and development risk.

I remember back in 2005 many considered house prices were at a peak. Back then, not many would have foreseen the the credit crunch and the extent to which house prices have outstripped growth in incomes since.

[Beagle]

Roger,Very happy with what they did and have no complaints on the gain to summerset. I am sure it put 5 years or more on their life's by moving in to Aotea, they had a great time. the 177K to 450K just interesting data is all. We were told they currently have a waiting list of about 50 potential buyers.Have summerset shares already. Been in and out for the last 5 years or so. mum is now in rest home care at enliven after dads passing at 91, unfortunately we had to relocate her to get the level of care now required. She is doing well, staff there great as well. Keeping track of her assets now to manage when subsidies kick in etc.Gunny
Hi Gunny. I'm very pleased to hear your parents enjoyed their latter years. Thanks for sharing your parents experience.

[couta1]

Unloved stock at the moment, mind you I've never seen such a subdued run up on the Ryman SP, two days before their results announcement, shows you how the sector is being viewed currently by Mr Market.

[skid]

Roger,Very happy with what they did and have no complaints on the gain to summerset. I am sure it put 5 years or more on their life's by moving in to Aotea, they had a great time. the 177K to 450K just interesting data is all. We were told they currently have a waiting list of about 50 potential buyers.Have summerset shares already. Been in and out for the last 5 years or so. mum is now in rest home care at enliven after dads passing at 91, unfortunately we had to relocate her to get the level of care now required. She is doing well, staff there great as well. Keeping track of her assets now to manage when subsidies kick in etc.Gunny

You are very lucky to have enough funds left over to relocate your mother --You could have easily not have. I can understand how this pleases shareholders and I also have tossed around the idea of some shares in SUM...but trying to dress this up to be good for an oldie with limited assets is like trying to put lipstick on a pig imo......thats a heck of a premium for providing a service that is charged for....I can understand why my neighbor is looking to try to get her mum in a church based home. why should all the capital gain go to the institution that already has the purchase price for the unit?

[Bjauck]

You are very lucky to have enough funds left over to relocate your mother --You could have easily not have. I can understand how this pleases shareholders and I also have tossed around the idea of some shares in SUM...but trying to dress this up to be good for an oldie with limited assets is like trying to put lipstick on a pig imo......thats a heck of a premium for providing a service that is charged for....I can understand why my neighbor is looking to try to get her mum in a church based home. why should all the capital gain go to the institution that already has the purchase price for the unit? In 2005 many thought that the property market was at a peak. Prices could have stagnated were it not for the GFC and the drop in interest rates and the current immigration numbers etc.

[Beagle]

I love the fact that some churches are in a financial position to provide services for the elderly in a not for profit manner but the reality is that this comes from a limited resource base of giving and assets that have been held within national church balance sheets for many decades.

Just like we need a healthy vibrant banking system to provide adequate banking services for all people and businesses we need a healthy vibrant retirement sector so older folks can enjoy a healthy vibrant supportive living environment in their latter years. Last time I checked nobody holds a gun to their head and says they must move into a retirement village but from what I hear the vast majority of people who do, lament the fact that they wish they'd done it earlier.

[percy]

You are very lucky to have enough funds left over to relocate your mother --You could have easily not have. I can understand how this pleases shareholders and I also have tossed around the idea of some shares in SUM...but trying to dress this up to be good for an oldie with limited assets is like trying to put lipstick on a pig imo......thats a heck of a premium for providing a service that is charged for....I can understand why my neighbor is looking to try to get her mum in a church based home. why should all the capital gain go to the institution that already has the purchase price for the unit?
The choice is for each of us to make.
No one is forcing people into SUM villages.
The simple fact is RYM and SUM suit a growing number of people.
You must then ask yourself why?.

[Jonboyz]

The choice is for each of us to make.
No one is forcing people into SUM villages.
The simple fact is RYM and SUM suit a growing number of people.
You must then ask yourself why?.

I'm looking foward to living in a retirement village one day. I'm just too lazy to cook everyday, clean, organise activities. I'd far prefer a SUM or RYM village than somewhere that might bathe me in kerosene and feed me bugs.

[Gunny]

What is interesting about my dad and mum is that they were never rich, in fact the opposite with five kids, one income, average government job for life deal. After managing to put together enough to buy a house (after getting a small inheritance as deposit) a long time ago in their 30's with a 30 year mortgage and after finishing with a very modest home in 2005 they decided to sell up and buy an apartment in summerset off the plans. They sold the house just at the right time (value went down soon after) and got in to summerset with a 100K spare in their bank. Pensions kept things mostly ticking over so when they surrendered still had a 100K in the bank. Could never convince dad to invest it beyond term deposits, being he was very old school. So a really average ma and pa New Zealand story, nothing flash and lived within their means after having it tough most of their lives.

There was no cost in relocating mum to a rest home but that is now costing just over 4K per month on a single pension of about 1500 per month. But this was a requirement of her failing health as she has been assessed to require that level of care, bordering on hospital level care. Great old New Zealand steps in on this when her remaining 277K assets fall to 220K in about 12 months with a subsidy to her pension to cover the costs. So we still have safety nets for our old folks (of which I am not far away from). I wonder if this will hold up with the wave of baby boomers coming both in dollars and space.

my understanding is anyone can get this subsidy after 65 for rest home care provided they have been assessed to that level of care with the only proviso they would need to surrender most of their pension and pay the difference until their assets reach to the current 220K assets. Their are other options if the partner is still alive and in the house still.

It is also interesting that my wife (not Kiwi born) is really keen to consider a retirement home in the future having seen the environment my parents were in with the café for food, activities, no house maintenance and friends around then etc.

Sorry to go on but it is interesting to view this as a shareholder and from my parents perspective as a user. As was pointed out is really is a win-win. There is much much more to this than any loss of potential capital gain on your house.

Gunny

Gunny

[iceman]

Thanks for sharing Gunny. I think your story of your family is a fairly typical situation of folks either already in or considering moving into a retirement home. It is not all about the cost (or losses) for them, security, having professional people on call nearby and camaraderie is all a big part of what they are looking for and get in most retirement homes.
My in laws live in the UK and have failing health. I took them to Ryman's retirement village in Nelson last year and they thought it was wonderful and wish they had options like that in the UK. Unfortunately it appears they don't. We are lucky here in NZ that we have a very successful retirement village industry.

[percy]

Gunny.
Great posts.
Thank you.

[Robomo]

Gunny - great post. A fairly typical story, the great majority of people really like the retirement homes run by Summerset, Ryman, Metlifecare etc. As Iceman says, we are indeed fortunate in NZ compared to many other countries.

disc. Hold SUM, possible future resident as well! If SUM drops a bit more I'll buy a few more.

[Beagle]

Gunny - great post. A fairly typical story, the great majority of people really like the retirement homes run by Summerset, Ryman, Metlifecare etc. As Iceman says, we are indeed fortunate in NZ compared to many other countries.

disc. Hold SUM, possible future resident as well! If SUM drops a bit more I'll buy a few more.

+1... Agree 100%

[couta1]

Might get a bit of Ryman money recycling back into SUM once holders compare the current relative growth rates.

[Beagle]

Might get a bit of Ryman money recycling back into SUM once holders compare the current relative growth rates.

SUM RYM shareholders might be very disappointed to see Simon leaving too. Leaders of that caliber are extremely thin on the ground in N.Z. business circles. No question he's done an extraordinary job over a very long time with RYM. SUM people might think RYM's golden run has SUM what petered out.

[percy]

Co-founder Kevin Hickman appointed Simon. Kevin remains,and the appointement of Gordon MacLeod means RYM remains in good hands.

[couta1]

Co-founder Kevin Hickman appointed Simon. Kevin remains,and the appointement of Gordon MacLeod means RYM remains in good hands. Yes still in good hands, yet Simon had a unique way of relating to all people from the residents upwards, and that will be missed. Market feeling a bit sad re Simon going and the failure to reach the 15% level, it will hit its straps again, but not over the next while. Meanwhile SUM offers a fast growing alternative.

[JeremyALD]

Yes still in good hands, yet Simon had a unique way of relating to all people from the residents upwards, and that will be missed. Market feeling a bit sad re Simon going and the failure to reach the 15% level, it will hit its straps again, but not over the next while. Meanwhile SUM offers a fast growing alternative.

Not sure if it's a good approach but out of my retirement stocks I have 55% in SUM and the other 45% in MET and RYM. Think I'll keep it that way for the foreseeable future.

[couta1]

Not sure if it's a good approach but out of my retirement stocks I have 55% in SUM and the other 45% in MET and RYM. Think I'll keep it that way for the foreseeable future. Sounds reasonable, although I prefer to use % of total portfolio, which SUM currently makes up around 25%. Actually I guess it all comes down to how much of your total wealth is in the market for percentages to make real sense. For me, other than the basic family home and a small kiwisaver, everything is in the market.

[percy]

Yes still in good hands, yet Simon had a unique way of relating to all people from the residents upwards, and that will be missed. Market feeling a bit sad re Simon going and the failure to reach the 15% level, it will hit its straps again, but not over the next while. Meanwhile SUM offers a fast growing alternative.

Yes a special person.
I am more than happy to hold our "free" RYM.
I did recently add to our "free" SUM .I remain well positioed.

[JeremyALD]

Sounds reasonable, although I prefer to use % of total portfolio, which SUM currently makes up around 25%. Actually I guess it all comes down to how much of your total wealth is in the market for percentages to make real sense. For me, other than the basic family home and a small kiwisaver, everything is in the market.

My portfolio is not huge as I have a mortgage in Auckland to contend with but SUM is about 20% of my total portfolio and MET and RYM 8% each. THL is my 2nd largest at 15%. I do think I'm a little over exposed to the retriement sector but I'm happy holding them for a long time so I'm not too worried given the tailwinds.

[winner69]

SUM might close under 5 bucks today

But hopefully the psychology around nice round numbers will see 500 hold

[couta1]

SUM might close under 5 bucks today

But hopefully the psychology around nice round numbers will see 500 hold Needs a bit of a ramp winner, bit unloved atm, they shouldn't have talked about Auckland headwinds at the AGM until they were certain the bottom line would be affected aye.

[Ggcc]

Needs a bit of a ramp winner, bit unloved atm, they shouldn't have talked about Auckland headwinds at the AGM until they were certain the bottom line would be affected aye.

With the lack of contractors in Auckland and the additional cost of getting the job done. How will the governments and private sectors proposal of building new homes come to budget and how difficult will it be if summerset will have to fight them (the government) for builders, roofers, sparkies and plumbers?

[JoeGrogan]

SUM might close under 5 bucks today

But hopefully the psychology around nice round numbers will see 500 hold

The third time its testing these levels surely a breakout is on the horizon if it manages to hold again :t_up:

[couta1]

The third time its testing these levels surely a breakout is on the horizon if it manages to hold again :t_up: Low volume sell down, looks like reef fish getting bored to me. PS-Big red arrow is annoying me like a bad itch, keen to see it go.

[JoeGrogan]

Freed up some cash from MEL so thinking i may have to get SUM more :)

[couta1]

Freed up some cash from MEL so thinking i may have to get SUM more :) SUM below all the MA's from 5-200 and currently sits on the MA250 line, how's those twitchy MA100 fingers going Roger.:cool:

[winner69]

SUM below all the MA's from 5-200 and currently sits on the MA250 line, how's those twitchy MA100 fingers going Roger.:cool:

Maybe heading to 450

One thing though is if SUM losses another 10% then RYM will lose more than 10% as they have further to go to reverting to the long term average PE

Little consolation for both SUM and RYM holders at the moment but huge buying opportunities coming up sometime

[couta1]

Maybe heading to 450

One thing though is if SUM losses another 10% then RYM will lose more than 10% as they have further to go to reverting to the long term average PE

Little consolation for both SUM and RYM holders at the moment but huge buying opportunities coming up sometime Forgot to mention that RYM are sitting on the MA550 line.:eek2:

[winner69]

SUM below all the MA's from 5-200 and currently sits on the MA250 line, how's those twitchy MA100 fingers going Roger.:cool:

No DEATH CROSS yet

No worries

[Beagle]

SUM below all the MA's from 5-200 and currently sits on the MA250 line, how's those twitchy MA100 fingers going Roger.:cool:

Grumpy Hound. Have a read of Rod Duke's speech in the Briscoe thread. He talks about how the company is going to meet and beat the challenges they face...shareholders don't want to hear about challenges, they want to hear from CEO's about how they're going to tackle them ! Julian Cook should take a leaf from Rod's book. Julian's still learning...

I seem to remember that new developments and build this year are weighted to the second half. I expect they'll come out with ~ $70m underlying forecast around the same time as they issued a forecast last year. We may need a bit of patience with this one mate.

[couta1]

Grumpy Hound. Have a read of Rod Duke's speech in the Briscoe thread. He talks about how the company is going to meat and beat the challenges they face...shareholders don't want to hear about challenges, they want to hear from CEO's about how they're going to tackle them ! Julian Cook should take a leaf from Rod's book. Julian's still learning...

I seem to remember that new developments and build this year are weighted to the second half. I expect they'll come out with ~ $70m underlying forecast around the same time as they issued a forecast last year. We may need a bit of patience with this one mate. Yeah, didn't help that both the Chairman of the Board and the CEO said the same thing a couple of times, like you say still learning, have never heard Ryman say that, pays to keep things in house unless they are going to make a Definite difference.

[James108]

Purchased more at $4.92, which I see as better value than when I purchased at $4.8 several months ago.

[James108]

Yeah, didn't help that both the Chairman of the Board and the CEO said the same thing a couple of times, like you say still learning, have never heard Ryman say that, pays to keep things in house unless they are going to make a Definite difference.

I don't agree, the more information we have the better, maybe they need to clarify the risk.

[sb9]

I don't agree, the more information we have the better, maybe they need to clarify the risk.

Agree 100%, they sure know what's better in the interests of shareholders and investors.

[JeremyALD]

This one is making me a bit nervous. I feel very over exposed to SUM and I didn't expect it to fall below $5 again.

[winner69]

Agree 100%, they sure know what's better in the interests of shareholders and investors.

What Roger was saying that they said there were challenges but didn't say how they were going to meet those challenges .....or what any impact might be

Left punters up in the air .....uncertainty not good

[winner69]

This one is making me a bit nervous. I feel very over exposed to SUM and I didn't expect it to fall below $5 again.

If sector continues to get rerated down 450 is on cards

Before the last few years excitement about the sector PEs averaged mid to late teens - maybe we are reverting to more normal / sensible valuations

[sb9]

What Roger was saying that they said there were challenges but didn't say how they were going to meet those challenges .....or what any impact might be

Left punters up in the air .....uncertainty not good

Agreed, but someone should've raised that concern at the recent ASM as to how they're planning to meet those challenges be it during or after the meeting.

[BlackPeter]

If sector continues to get rerated down 450 is on cards

Before the last few years excitement about the sector PEs averaged mid to late teens - maybe we are reverting to more normal / sensible valuations

Hmm - SUM has (at 492) a forward PE off 11.1 combined with a forward CAGR of 17.6. I would not see this valuation as "unreasonable" (other than maybe unreasonably cheap), but agreed - the market is free to pick any valuation standard they like, maybe we can get the shares in some days / weeks still cheaper, maybe not.

Still - I don't see at this stage a good reason to sell my SUM shares. I do see them as undervalued and am rather sure that the market will mid and longterm come back to the party.

[winner69]

BP - PE mentioned on underlying earnings

[BlackPeter]

BP - PE mentioned on underlying earnings

Don't do underlying earnings. Underlying earnings might be in some cases useful for comparisons - or maybe not. However, what really counts are the numbers under the bottom line :).

[winner69]

Don't do underlying earnings. Underlying earnings might be in some cases useful for comparisons - or maybe not. However, what really counts are the numbers under the bottom line :).

I agree - thats what I prefer

Real investment managers (not the broker types) tend us price book ratios - and that includes the realised and unrealised bits. After all if the house hat cost me 1/2 million is worth say a million it's worth a million - not 1/2 million plus unrealised gains of 1/2 million if you get the gist of what I'm trying to say.

[couta1]

I don't agree, the more information we have the better, maybe they need to clarify the risk. The info SUM gave is a bit like a fit athlete saying he may not do well in the race he is about to run because there is a bit of wind blowing.

[couta1]

This one is making me a bit nervous. I feel very over exposed to SUM and I didn't expect it to fall below $5 again. I'm more disappointed in myself for not taking the meeting ques and loading up, rather than waiting. Will be fine given time but I hate sitting on a large SUM of dead money that could be put to use elsewhere.

[percy]

I'm more disappointed in myself for not taking the meeting ques and loading up, rather than waiting. Will be fine given time but I hate sitting on a large SUM of dead money that could be put to use elsewhere.

Does not worry me,as time is the friend of a good company,and enemy of a poor company.SUM is a good company, so I remain "well positioned."

[Food4Thought]

I'm more disappointed in myself for not taking the meeting ques and loading up, rather than waiting. Will be fine given time but I hate sitting on a large SUM of dead money that could be put to use elsewhere.

I don't believe the shorterism I am seeing with sharetrader posts. We are talking a couple of months of a 10% correction. Maybe it turns out to be 20%. The long term is the goal for me in this one, and all I hope for is that the more it goes down, the more shares I can accumulate and the lower the next Divi Reinvestment will be. Uncertainties will always be there. It's like a daily beating game and I try to focus on the long term. Maybe that's why I don't watch T.V and try to look for inspiration more in what is happening globally. Trends, forecasts and so on. Mostly I check out weather forecasts ... they are as unpredictable as anything.

The SUM will come up, maybe not tomorrow, yet it will happen :)

[couta1]

I don't believe the shorterism I am seeing with sharetrader posts. We are talking a couple of months of a 10% correction. Maybe it turns out to be 20%. The long term is the goal for me in this one, and all I hope for is that the more it goes down, the more shares I can accumulate and the lower the next Divi Reinvestment will be. Uncertainties will always be there. It's like a daily beating game and I try to focus on the long term. Maybe that's why I don't watch T.V and try to look for inspiration more in what is happening globally. Trends, forecasts and so on. Mostly I check out weather forecasts ... they are as unpredictable as anything.

The SUM will come up, maybe not tomorrow, yet it will happen :) I agree with what your saying, im just hard on myself in the sense that I knew the price was going to drop after the AGM but loaded up instead of waiting a bit. PS-I said put to use elsewhere(Meantime) not better elsewhere.

[winner69]

Hmm - SUM has (at 492) a forward PE off 11.1 combined with a forward CAGR of 17.6. I would not see this valuation as "unreasonable" (other than maybe unreasonably cheap), but agreed - the market is free to pick any valuation standard they like, maybe we can get the shares in some days / weeks still cheaper, maybe not.

Still - I don't see at this stage a good reason to sell my SUM shares. I do see them as undervalued and am rather sure that the market will mid and longterm come back to the party.

Forward of PE of 11.1 implies EPS in F17 of 44 cents (on NPAT seeing you don't do underlying stuff)

But last year EPS was 67 cents

You borrowed t_j's abacus or something

SUM ridiculously underpriced at the moment


Footnote - since 2002 RYM has averaged a PE of 16 on real earnings

[Food4Thought]

I agree with what your saying, im just hard on myself in the sense that I knew the price was going to drop after the AGM but loaded up instead of waiting a bit. PS-I said put to use elsewhere(Meantime) not better elsewhere.

Yes, and if it didn't, you would be rubbing your hands and sitting smug. We can never forecast what happens. It'll be right mate

[JoeGrogan]

Forward of PE of 11.1 implies EPS in F17 of 44 cents (on NPAT seeing you don't do underlying stuff)

But last year EPS was 67 cents

You borrowed t_j's abacus or something

SUM ridiculously underpriced at the moment


Footnote - since 2002 RYM has averaged a PE of 16 on real earnings

On this basis MET is ridiculously underpriced at the moment too with a PE of 5.02 (NPAT) for FY2017 based on forecasts. Furthermore, a forward looking PE of 8.4 based on FY 2018 forecasts.

Perhaps RYM is just in a league of it's own/overpriced and SUM and MET are 'fair value'.

Edit: MET also has a higher book value then the current share price.

[trader_jackson]

In Accumulation Mode, the sellers are welcome to their Oceania shares.:D

Posted 21-04-2017, 01:24 PM.... 2 and a bit trading days before the AGM... share price closed at $5.14



The slide continues, went to grab Sum more at close but got shut out, Ryman doing okay, lots of reef fish want those Oceania shares aye. PS-Another potential 3 days of selling for the Oceania sellers.

Posted 20-04-2017, 05:06 PM... 3 trading days before AGM ... share price closed at $5.12



I agree with what your saying, im just hard on myself in the sense that I knew the price was going to drop after the AGM but loaded up instead of waiting a bit. PS-I said put to use elsewhere(Meantime) not better elsewhere.

Posted Today, 07:16 PM... share price closed at $4.91

So you knew the price was going to drop after the AGM yet for a couple of days before a few days before the AGM you were accumulating SUM at a price over 20 cents higher than it is today?
Would be great if you could also explain this whole Oceania sellers seemingly being the only reason SUM is down... (or one of the only, that and the 'bad' AGM you knew about eh?)
OCA is up 5 cents (on IPO price), SUM down over 20 cents... hmm

Not so much a debate about SUM's share price, but just how you managed to sense a price drop after the AGM, yet still loaded up continuously?

[Baa_Baa]

There's no point in dragging up prior posts, people generously share their views. There are no recommendations here, people generously share their views. There is no compunction on any member here to follow the posting of other members. When one gets that, they will refrain from berating past posts. Everyone gets to make their own decisions, there's no point in reflection on which of those were on the money or not. Most won't have to live with the consequences of others missives, move on, make your own decisions, but dragging up the past just results in fewer people who are prepared to share the views.

[janner]

There's no point in dragging up prior posts, people generously share their views. There are no recommendations here, people generously share their views. There is no compunction on any member here to follow the posting of other members. When one gets that, they will refrain from berating past posts. Everyone gets to make their own decisions, there's no point in reflection on which of those were on the money or not. Most won't have to live with the consequences of others missives, move on, make your own decisions, but dragging up the past just results in fewer people who are prepared to share the views.

Complete agreement.. No one likes .. Na na na na na !!.

We just need to pull our collective heads in occasionally... Aye :-))

Onwards and Upwards for us ALL...

[couta1]

Posted 21-04-2017, 01:24 PM.... 2 and a bit trading days before the AGM... share price closed at $5.14




Posted 20-04-2017, 05:06 PM... 3 trading days before AGM ... share price closed at $5.12




Posted Today, 07:16 PM... share price closed at $4.91

So you knew the price was going to drop after the AGM yet for a couple of days before a few days before the AGM you were accumulating SUM at a price over 20 cents higher than it is today?
Would be great if you could also explain this whole Oceania sellers seemingly being the only reason SUM is down... (or one of the only, that and the 'bad' AGM you knew about eh?)
OCA is up 5 cents (on IPO price), SUM down over 20 cents... hmm

Not so much a debate about SUM's share price, but just how you managed to sense a price drop after the AGM, yet still loaded up continuously? Not sure what the point of this post is other than an attempt to belittle a fellow poster, it serves no other purpose. I guess there is a price to pay for honesty and a post like this is it. Thank you Baa Baa for your post.

[JoeGrogan]

There's no point in dragging up prior posts, people generously share their views. There are no recommendations here, people generously share their views. There is no compunction on any member here to follow the posting of other members. When one gets that, they will refrain from berating past posts. Everyone gets to make their own decisions, there's no point in reflection on which of those were on the money or not. Most won't have to live with the consequences of others missives, move on, make your own decisions, but dragging up the past just results in fewer people who are prepared to share the views.

Agreed, the post comes across as distasteful and a personal attack, which doesn't encourage open discussion.

[trader_jackson]

Complete agreement.. No one likes .. Na na na na na !!.

We just need to pull our collective heads in occasionally... Aye :-))

Onwards and Upwards for us ALL...

Absolutely right... it just surprises me how some people can talk about how much they are buying, then turn around a month later and make statements like I knew/sensed/whatever it was going to go down... not very constructive discussion in my view, especially when there is no legitimate reason to justify why it may have gone down

I do accept it is a bit of a personal attack, and don't mean to be 'the police', but at the same time I think talk like this is potentially misleading and dangerous - and best left not said at all.

I would certainly dislike if a CEO of a company, for example, mentioned one thing publicly, then just 1 month later turned around and said something else, and claimed that this was always going to be the case in the first place and sense it all along... anyway, my apologies for ruffling any feathers, carry on.

[janner]

Absolutely right... it just surprises me how some people can talk about how much they are buying, then turn around a month later and make statements like I knew/sensed/whatever it was going to go down... not very constructive discussion in my view, especially when there is no legitimate reason to justify why it may have gone down

I do accept it is a bit of a personal attack, and don't mean to be 'the police', but at the same time I think talk like this is potentially misleading and dangerous - and best left not said at all.

Anyway, my apologies, and carry on.

Carry on we ALL will.. Good prompt reply :-)))

[RupertBear]

There's no point in dragging up prior posts, people generously share their views. There are no recommendations here, people generously share their views. There is no compunction on any member here to follow the posting of other members. When one gets that, they will refrain from berating past posts. Everyone gets to make their own decisions, there's no point in reflection on which of those were on the money or not. Most won't have to live with the consequences of others missives, move on, make your own decisions, but dragging up the past just results in fewer people who are prepared to share the views.
Well said Baa Baa

[iceman]

Agreed, the post comes across as distasteful and a personal attack, which doesn't encourage open discussion.

Agreed. Totally unnecessary

[Beagle]

Agreed, but someone should've raised that concern at the recent ASM as to how they're planning to meet those challenges be it during or after the meeting.

I had a good chat with Julian Cook after the meeting and will be following that up with a detailed letter shortly outlining my thesis surrounding fixed fees for life. There is no issue here like Fletcher building who are locked into unprofitable fixed price contracts. SUM get to set their own prices, (which of course they understand) which is entirely a function of what the market will bear and what value people perceive in what's being offered. At this point I don't think Julian Cook fully understands that old people crave security with a craving that runs so deep to the core they place an extremely high value on things in their life that give them 100% certainty.
Elderly people have a LOT to worry about. Will my health be good, will I get on with other residents, will my kids and grandkids come and visit me here as often as I'd like, how much will my weekly fees go up each year while I'm here and will I be able to afford future increases, how will I be able to get around if I can't drive e.t.c.e.t.c.e.t.c.
RYM understand the marketing power of fixed fees for life and use that to achieve premium prices for their units. My mission is to help Julian understand elderly people's psychology a bit better and use a change to fixed fees for life to leverage premium pricing for Auckland units to fully recover the anticipated increased construction costs and perhaps even expand development margins. I need to stop typing on here about it and start typing to him. Its on the to do list. The market doesn't like uncertainty and that's what SUM directors and Julian Cook dished up at the annual meeting.


There's no point in dragging up prior posts, people generously share their views. There are no recommendations here, people generously share their views. There is no compunction on any member here to follow the posting of other members. When one gets that, they will refrain from berating past posts. Everyone gets to make their own decisions, there's no point in reflection on which of those were on the money or not. Most won't have to live with the consequences of others missives, move on, make your own decisions, but dragging up the past just results in fewer people who are prepared to share the views.

Agree 100%. Everyone's a bit frustrated about the SP, I guess that doesn't help the mood on this thread.

[JeremyALD]

I had a good chat with Julian Cook after the meeting and will be following that up with a lengthy letter shortly. There is no issue here like Fletcher building who are locked into unprofitable fixed price contracts. SUM get to set their own prices which is entirely a function of what the market will bear and what value people perceive in what's being offered. At this point I don't think Julian Cook understands that old people crave security with a craving that runs so deep to the core they place an extremely high value on things in their life that give them certainty. RYM understand this and use the power of fixed fees for life to achieve premium prices for their units. My mission is to help Julian understand elderly people's psychology a bit better and use a change to fixed fees for life to leverage premium pricing for Auckland units. I need to stop typing on here abo0tu it and start typing to Julian. Its on the to do list. The market doesn't like uncertainty and that's what SUM directors and Julian Cook dished up at the annual meeting.



Agree 100%.

Do you really think it's to do with the annual meeting though? I noticed MET has pretty much followed the same path as SUM in the last few months. A big bounce after the annual report and then dropping thereafter. I think people are very nervous about the housing market. Things are slow in Auckland. I think it's good the directors of SUM flagged the risk. Much better than being caught off guard; however they weren't exactly clear about what the risk actually are apart from delays of their new buildings and increased cost.

I'm at a Core Logic presentation this week so I'll let you know what they think about the property market. I think that's having the biggest impact on share sentiment at the moment.

[RRR]

Well said Baa_Baa. No personal attack in this public forum.
SUM is a good company with ups and downs!

[Beagle]

Do you really think it's to do with the annual meeting though? I noticed MET has pretty much followed the same path as SUM in the last few months. A big bounce after the annual report and then dropping thereafter. I think people are very nervous about the housing market. Things are slow in Auckland. I think it's good the directors of SUM flagged the risk. Much better than being caught off guard; however they weren't exactly clear about what the risk actually are apart from delays of their new buildings and increased cost.

I'm at a Core Logic presentation this week so I'll let you know what they think about the property market. I think that's having the biggest impact on share sentiment at the moment.

Yes absolutely that seems to be a general concern at the moment. I think its probably overdone as the forward underlying PE is at a record ever low for SUM but these things can often run further than one would like before correcting themselves.

[Joshuatree]

Posted 21-04-2017, 01:24 PM.... 2 and a bit trading days before the AGM... share price closed at $5.14




Posted 20-04-2017, 05:06 PM... 3 trading days before AGM ... share price closed at $5.12




Posted Today, 07:16 PM... share price closed at $4.91

So you knew the price was going to drop after the AGM yet for a couple of days before a few days before the AGM you were accumulating SUM at a price over 20 cents higher than it is today?
Would be great if you could also explain this whole Oceania sellers seemingly being the only reason SUM is down... (or one of the only, that and the 'bad' AGM you knew about eh?)
OCA is up 5 cents (on IPO price), SUM down over 20 cents... hmm

Not so much a debate about SUM's share price, but just how you managed to sense a price drop after the AGM, yet still loaded up continuously?

I don't see this as an attack at all; I'm sure its not; but questioning; challenging a little; asking someone to explain their reasonings, fair questions, answers appreciated. It can cause us to stop ,think , backtest ,correct, check accuracy,acknowledge,review what we say and think about possible effects on newbies/naive folks etc.And be better contributors for it.

[JeremyALD]

I think quoting a whole lot of posts and outlining all their "contradictions" is when it starts to get argumentive. You could easily say the same thing without making someone look bad by posting everything they had to say and telling them what's happening today.

I think there's a lot of power in DYOR....I need to start using that liner more!!! Anyway I digress. Let's watch for SUM time more how this one goes :)

[Joshuatree]

Its good to get clarity from the "contradictions" and a right of reply is genuinely asked for; all good stuff otherwise any old thing can be said and be unchallenged; un questioned etc and who wants that? :t_up::)

[couta1]

Its good to get clarity from the "contradictions" and a right of reply is genuinely asked for; all good stuff otherwise any old thing can be said and be unchallenged; un questioned etc and who wants that? :t_up::) There is no contradictions, when I said I knew the SP would drop after the AGM, I meant after the meeting itself, not before. I wasn't talking about the shares I bought before the AGM but the ones I loaded up on the week afterwards and not following my instinct and waiting a bit longer, that's it. Actually today I was thinking it was time to take a break from the forum and now I know it's definately that time.

[percy]

I don't see this as an attack at all; I'm sure its not; but questioning; challenging a little; asking someone to explain their reasonings, fair questions, answers appreciated. It can cause us to stop ,think , backtest ,correct, check accuracy,acknowledge,review what we say and think about possible effects on newbies/naive folks etc.And be better contributors for it.

I totally agree.
Should I have posted a load of drivel,I think it is only fair, that it is thrown back at me,when I have been proved wrong.
If you know "the error of your ways", will be brought to others' attention,the standard of posting will most probably improve.

[percy]

Its good to get clarity from the "contradictions" and a right of reply is genuinely asked for; all good stuff otherwise any old thing can be said and be unchallenged; un questioned etc and who wants that? :t_up::)
Exactly right.
Lowers the standard of Sharetrader.

[macduffy]

I hold a few SUM and have been in the markets long enough - since around 1962-63? - from memory - to know that shareprices don't follow a straight line, up or down! So I'm not stressing over what I see as, probably, a short term correction back to around Feb/March levels and intend to buy a few more when the trend reverses.

:cool:

[RupertBear]

Its good to get clarity from the "contradictions" and a right of reply is genuinely asked for; all good stuff otherwise any old thing can be said and be unchallenged; un questioned etc and who wants that? :t_up::)

Seeking clarity on someones post is fine but personal attacks, which TJ admitted it was, is not fine and not constructive IMO. I actually enjoy Coutas post, he comes across as pretty transparent and honest to me.

[Beagle]

Absolutely right... it just surprises me how some people can talk about how much they are buying, then turn around a month later and make statements like I knew/sensed/whatever it was going to go down... not very constructive discussion in my view, especially when there is no legitimate reason to justify why it may have gone down

I do accept it is a bit of a personal attack, and don't mean to be 'the police', but at the same time I think talk like this is potentially misleading and dangerous - and best left not said at all.

I would certainly dislike if a CEO of a company, for example, mentioned one thing publicly, then just 1 month later turned around and said something else, and claimed that this was always going to be the case in the first place and sense it all along... anyway, my apologies for ruffling any feathers, carry on.

I disagree completely with Joshuatree and Percy's opinion above in support of said personal attack.
The plain fact is, as admitted by t.j. himself as highlighted above there is a core undercurrent of personal attack in this post.
We all post things from time to time that could have been worded better. I am certain that Couta1 meant to say he suspected after attending the annual meeting that because of the uncertainty generated around the higher construction costs in Auckland he suspected the shares might come under pressure.
Absolutely no question this thinly disguised personal attack was extremely distasteful and I for one completely understand why Couta1 has taken umbrage.
On the Oceania front I note that one poster on here has shared some very useful industry insights and yet others seem happy to support such a distasteful personal attack on said poster...go figure.
I would have thought it is perfectly obvious that when nearly half a billion dollars is sucked out of this sector by Infratil selling down its stake in MET and the OCA float there would be an impact on the incumbent companies. Market obviously has a case of indigestion exacerbated by the uncertainty over development margins in Auckland created by the company and concerns over house prices.

Its also a case of the development growth this year being a second half story so I am expecting slightly weaker second quarter metrics in early July.
SUM time this year the shares will be exceptional long term buying but I am not sure we're quite there yet.

Couta1 is the most honest bloke on this forum by a country mile !

[trader_jackson]

I disagree completely with Joshuatree and Percy's opinion above in support of said personal attack.
The plain fact is, as admitted by t.j. himself as highlighted above there is a core undercurrent of personal attack in this post.
We all post things from time to time that could have been worded better. I am certain that Couta1 meant to say he suspected after attending the annual meeting that because of the uncertainty generated around the higher construction costs in Auckland he suspected the shares might come under pressure.
Absolutely no question this thinly disguised personal attack was extremely distasteful and I for one completely understand why Couta1 has taken umbrage.
On the Oceania front I note that one poster on here has shared some very useful industry insights and yet others seem happy to support such a distasteful personal attack on said poster...go figure.
I would have thought it is perfectly obvious that when nearly half a billion dollars is sucked out of this sector by Infratil selling down its stake in MET and the OCA float there would be an impact on the incumbent companies. Market obviously has a case of indigestion exacerbated by the uncertainty over development margins in Auckland created by the company and concerns over house prices.

Its also a case of the development growth this year being a second half story so I am expecting slightly weaker second quarter metrics in early July.
SUM time this year the shares will be exceptional long term buying but I am not sure we're quite there yet.

Couta1 is the most honest bloke on this forum by a country mile !

As initially mentioned, it was not so much of discussion around SUM's share price (or what is driving it etc), but rather what looked to be contradictory posts in a very short period of time, followed by a claim that looked to be questionable.

I'll re-clarify my clarification... it could have been interpreted as a personal attack, although I did not intend it to be, rather a 'point of order' (I was admitting it may have looked like it was)

I think we should all just put the 'issue' behind us, and I do respect every member, although it would be nice if we all (including myself) could be more careful and consider our posts before posting, which would lift the quality of posts (as others have mentioned).

Thanks,
TJ

[Beagle]

Okay lets move on but please try and remember that when someone has a big stake in a company and the share price is under pressure nobody needs salt rubbed into the wound...

SP under pressure...Frayed nerves all round with this one...I suspect that those who hold their nerve over the long run will do extremely well but patience will be required I think.

[couta1]

As initially mentioned, it was not so much of discussion around SUM's share price (or what is driving it etc), but rather what looked to be contradictory posts in a very short period of time, followed by a claim that looked to be questionable.

I'll re-clarify my clarification... it could have been interpreted as a personal attack, although I did not intend it to be, rather a 'point of order' (I was admitting it may have looked like it was)

I think we should all just put the 'issue' behind us, and I do respect every member, although it would be nice if we all (including myself) could be more careful and consider our posts before posting, which would lift the quality of posts (as others have mentioned).

Thanks,
TJ Instead of all the long explanations, all I require is a simple apology from yourself put on here and that will end the matter from my viewpoint.

[fiasco]

Like others, I've have been accumulating parcels since 5.03, happy to continue so, hindsight is a beautiful, but with SUM i've found over the last few years, picking the bottom is often difficult.

IF it reaches 4.80 I think it's great value.

[macduffy]

Like others, I've have been accumulating parcels since 5.03, happy to continue so, hindsight is a beautiful, but with SUM i've found over the last few years, picking the bottom is often difficult.

IF it reaches 4.80 I think it's great value.

You're probably right there, fiasco, but I'll wait for the upturn. No point in being a hero!

[fiasco]

You're probably right there, fiasco, but I'll wait for the upturn. No point in being a hero!

Absolutely and 100% agree, and I wish I did wait (will wait for uptrend for my next purchase). Although, last time the uptrend started at 4.90, it went to 5.15 too quickly for me to act (not a huge material rise) ><

[BlackPeter]

Forward of PE of 11.1 implies EPS in F17 of 44 cents (on NPAT seeing you don't do underlying stuff)

But last year EPS was 67 cents

You borrowed t_j's abacus or something

SUM ridiculously underpriced at the moment


Footnote - since 2002 RYM has averaged a PE of 16 on real earnings

Sorry for the slack reply - had my focus this morning on MPG ...

No, winner - I don't use T_J's abacus. I am proud owner of my own slide ruler (actually I own 2 of them) and learned in school how to operate them :p

My forward EPS is based on the average of the consensus forecasts for the next three years. And yes, you are right - analysts do see a drop in EPS. I suppose this expectation is based on the assumption that property prices (and with that revaluation gains) are likely to grow slower in the foreseeable future than in the recent past. I do share this view.

[Jantar]

I keep looking at SUM as a potential investment, and keep deciding "not yet, but let's watch a bit longer". What is off-putting as far as investing in SUM is concerned is the apparent eps of 66 cps against the total dividend for the year of 7.7 cps unimputed. I want to at least do better than simple bank rates, so on that basis SUM is only worth $2.20 to me. Over the past 12 months there has been a drop in SP of $0.70, so there isn't even the prospect of decent capital gain to make it a worthwhile investment.

Maybe the longer term investors in this company can explain what it is I am missing.

[blackcap]

I keep looking at SUM as a potential investment, and keep deciding "not yet, but let's watch a bit longer". What is off-putting as far as investing in SUM is concerned is the apparent eps of 66 cps against the total dividend for the year of 7.7 cps unimputed. I want to at least do better than simple bank rates, so on that basis SUM is only worth $2.20 to me. Over the past 12 months there has been a drop in SP of $0.70, so there isn't even the prospect of decent capital gain to make it a worthwhile investment.

Maybe the longer term investors in this company can explain what it is I am missing.

I am presuming a lot of the "EPS" are non cash earnings and therefore they do not have the cash to pay a higher dividend? I hold some SUM as well but not enough to really care about the day to day gyrations of the SP. Have held since more than 5 years ago in the $1.60 range so cannot moan too much. But it would be nice to see Earnings declared as dividends. (or at least a higher %)

[BlackPeter]

I keep looking at SUM as a potential investment, and keep deciding "not yet, but let's watch a bit longer". What is off-putting as far as investing in SUM is concerned is the apparent eps of 66 cps against the total dividend for the year of 7.7 cps unimputed. I want to at least do better than simple bank rates, so on that basis SUM is only worth $2.20 to me. Over the past 12 months there has been a drop in SP of $0.70, so there isn't even the prospect of decent capital gain to make it a worthwhile investment.

Maybe the longer term investors in this company can explain what it is I am missing.

You missed (and keep missing) significant growth in an industry which is bound to keep growing well above average. Just look at SP growth and capital growth over the last 5, 3 or 2 years ... and while the last year was a bit bumpy, capital did grow in that year significantly (and SP somewhat as well).

You could have bought a share 5 years ago for $1.70. It is now around $4.85 (and holders got some divvies on top of that) ... just wondering whether your bank account appreciated that much over the same time frame? Certainly not thanks to the interest rates. SUM had over the last 8 years a CAGR of 20% and future predictions put it still into the 17 to 18% range. That's exactly what you are missing if you don't buy ...

However - nobody can tell you, whether it might be cheaper tomorrow or next week - i.e. waiting might be a good idea (or maybe not). DYOR and feel free to leave the gains to others :p

[Ggcc]

I am quite happy watching everyone find that perfect time to invest in this great company and I do understand how much this pay increase will be in investors minds. Like banks in aussie being forced to pay new taxes, all will be passed on though some way or other onto customers. I think summerset will be a perfect investment for long term holders. I am waiting and salivating at these prices as I try not to push the buy button. I bought at $5.15 roughly averaging $3.85. I intend to buy more, but my larger funds are only available in a few weeks 😊

[Bjauck]

I keep looking at SUM as a potential investment, and keep deciding "not yet, but let's watch a bit longer". What is off-putting as far as investing in SUM is concerned is the apparent eps of 66 cps against the total dividend for the year of 7.7 cps unimputed. I want to at least do better than simple bank rates, so on that basis SUM is only worth $2.20 to me. ...

From NZX site, SUM dividends:
y/e
31/3/15 3.5c
31/3/16 5.25c
31/3/17 7.7c

I do not know of any term deposits that have doubled their interest payments within two years. So there is the possibility that if you purchase SUM shares today that within two years the current dividend yield of 1.59% (on the purchase price) will be doubled, increased risk notwithstanding. I think during the GFC RYM's underlying profitability continued to grow. DYOR.

[Beagle]

International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) require property companies to revalue their portfolio each year to current market value.
IFRS reported profit includes all property revaluations and does not represent the underlying cash earnings of the business. This measure underlying earnings, referred to by all the retirement village operators is the measure all professional analysts use to compare the earnings across the sector because this measure excludes the annual property revaluation but includes all cash earnings from license to occupy resales, new unit sales and the development margin thereon and any profit from the operations of the villages.

Underlying EPS was 25.6 cps for the year ended 31 December 2016. I am forecasting underlying EPS of 32 cps for 31/12/17 and the average analyst forecast is for underlying EPS of 31 cps. Based on average analyst forecast SUM currently trades on a current year PE of 15.6 which is less than the NZX50 average.

Their current dividend payout ratio is 30% of underlying earnings. Dividends are unimputed and as this company is growing strongly it is unlikely that they will increase this percentage higher anytime soon. People looking for a good dividend yield have a wide range of better fully imputed dividend yielding shares to chose from so might like to consider looking elsewhere.

Some people persist in using full IFRS earnings. I am not saying they are wrong per se, but this can and probably will give a disingenuous view of how earnings may be tracking / growing in the years ahead. As Bjauck has posted above, I can confirm RYM grew underlying earnings before, throughout and after the GFC.
I do not expect any moderate decline in house prices this year to affect SUM"s underlying cash earnings and am projecting 25% underlying earnings growth this year down from 50% last year and 55% the year before that.

[Snow Leopard]

International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) require property companies to revalue their portfolio each year to current market value.
IFRS reported profit includes all property revaluations and does not represent the underlying cash earnings of the business. This measure underlying earnings, referred to by all the retirement village operators is the measure all professional analysts use to compare the earnings across the sector because this measure excludes the annual property revaluation but includes all cash earnings from license to occupy resales, new unit sales and the development margin thereon and any profit from the operations of the villages....

Underlying earnings has 4 main components:
1 - The current assessed value of a new units sold - the cost of those units;
2 - The current assessed value of resold units - the previous assessed value of those units when last sold or resold, however many years ago that was;
3 - The profit/loss from operating the villages and providing services;
4 - Anything else.

To be continued, but I have an urgent interruption.

See you later
Paper Tiger

[Jantar]

International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) require property companies to revalue their portfolio each year to current market value.
IFRS reported profit includes all property revaluations and does not represent the underlying cash earnings of the business.......
Thanks folks, this is what I was missing. SUM will continue to be on my watch-list, but it is still not yet one for me. Meantime I have a small amount of both ARV and OCA as a bite into this sector, and happy with both so far.

[winner69]

I keep looking at SUM as a potential investment, and keep deciding "not yet, but let's watch a bit longer". What is off-putting as far as investing in SUM is concerned is the apparent eps of 66 cps against the total dividend for the year of 7.7 cps unimputed. I want to at least do better than simple bank rates, so on that basis SUM is only worth $2.20 to me. Over the past 12 months there has been a drop in SP of $0.70, so there isn't even the prospect of decent capital gain to make it a worthwhile investment.

Maybe the longer term investors in this company can explain what it is I am missing.

Here's why Jantar

As long as SUM keep building villages etc the line will continue to go upover time

I reckon now is a great time to buy - just like the other times when short term thinking 'investors' / punters have given up


Note - line is free drawn - not calculated or anything clever - just to show that as long SUM keep building things the line keeps going up

[LAC]

I keep looking at SUM as a potential investment, and keep deciding "not yet, but let's watch a bit longer". What is off-putting as far as investing in SUM is concerned is the apparent eps of 66 cps against the total dividend for the year of 7.7 cps unimputed. I want to at least do better than simple bank rates, so on that basis SUM is only worth $2.20 to me. Over the past 12 months there has been a drop in SP of $0.70, so there isn't even the prospect of decent capital gain to make it a worthwhile investment.

Maybe the longer term investors in this company can explain what it is I am missing.

I think it's best to read what the business model actually is, amazing model IMO. You cant compare this to bank TD's because the divies are negligible but is good picking them up every now and again. The capital gain is what this stock is for, if they keep building with funds from the previous development then we are all winners. Retirement sector for me is just long term and nothing else, I will sell this at 65 years when I retire:)

[Snow Leopard]

International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) require property companies to revalue their portfolio each year to current market value.
IFRS reported profit includes all property revaluations and does not represent the underlying cash earnings of the business. This measure underlying earnings, referred to by all the retirement village operators is the measure all professional analysts use to compare the earnings across the sector because this measure excludes the annual property revaluation but includes all cash earnings from license to occupy resales, new unit sales and the development margin thereon and any profit from the operations of the villages....

Underlying earnings has 4 main components:
1 - The current assessed value of a new units sold - the cost of those units;
2 - The current assessed value of resold units - the previous assessed value of those units when last sold or resold, however many years ago that was;
3 - The profit/loss from operating the villages and providing services;
4 - Anything else.

Later the same day...

For SUM for 2016 the underlying earnings numbers for a total of $56.6M were:
1 - $39.0M
2 - $15.4M
3 & 4 - $2.2M
or mostly revaluation gains.

this compares with the NPAT total of $145.5M of which only $2.0M is non-revaluation profits.

Now for the really good bit...

For SUM for 2016 there was a net operating cash inflow of $192.6M, an even bigger number than that NPAT profit.
:t_up:

Interestingly one element of the cash flow is:
Receipts for residents' loans - $261M8;
which is, as near as makes no difference, also the current assessed value of those units sold and resold (as in items 1 & 2) up top.

That makes one ponder. Which came first, the sale or the valuation?

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[JoeGrogan]

Underlying earnings has 4 main components:
1 - The current assessed value of a new units sold - the cost of those units;
2 - The current assessed value of resold units - the previous assessed value of those units when last sold or resold, however many years ago that was;
3 - The profit/loss from operating the villages and providing services;
4 - Anything else.

Later the same day...

For SUM for 2016 the underlying earnings numbers for a total of $56.6M were:
1 - $39.0M
2 - $15.4M
3 & 4 - $2.2M
or mostly revaluation gains.

this compares with the NPAT total of $145.5M of which only $2.0M is non-revaluation profits.

Now for the really good bit...

For SUM for 2016 there was a net operating cash inflow of $192.6M, an even bigger number than that NPAT profit.
:t_up:

Interestingly one element of the cash flow is:
Receipts for residents' loans - $261M8;
which is, as near as makes no difference, also the current assessed value of those units sold and resold (as in items 1 & 2) up top.

That makes one ponder. Which came first, the sale or the valuation?

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

5 year CAGR of 35% for net operating cash flow is pretty damn attractive, and something i negligently failed to consider when comparing other companies in the sector.

[Joshuatree]

As initially mentioned, it was not so much of discussion around SUM's share price (or what is driving it etc), but rather what looked to be contradictory posts in a very short period of time, followed by a claim that looked to be questionable.

I'll re-clarify my clarification... it could have been interpreted as a personal attack, although I did not intend it to be, rather a 'point of order' (I was admitting it may have looked like it was)

I think we should all just put the 'issue' behind us, and I do respect every member, although it would be nice if we all (including myself) could be more careful and consider our posts before posting, which would lift the quality of posts (as others have mentioned).

Thanks,
TJ

Hear hear well said.
Im watching and waiting for an opp to buy my first shares in this company when there is a clear turn around. Good luck all.

[Onion]

I keep looking at SUM as a potential investment, and keep deciding "not yet, but let's watch a bit longer". What is off-putting as far as investing in SUM is concerned is the apparent eps of 66 cps against the total dividend for the year of 7.7 cps unimputed. I want to at least do better than simple bank rates, so on that basis SUM is only worth $2.20 to me. Over the past 12 months there has been a drop in SP of $0.70, so there isn't even the prospect of decent capital gain to make it a worthwhile investment.

Maybe the longer term investors in this company can explain what it is I am missing.

I prefer that SUM reinvest earnings to support growth. SUM is a growth story at present. They have all that banked land to develop. If they ultimately stop developing new opportunities THEN they can start paying larger dividends. Until then I'm happy for the SP to give me the long term return.

[Jantar]

...., I will sell this at 65 years when I retire:)65 for me is next year. But retirement is still over 2 years away. I have a couple of goals I need to finish first.

[JoeGrogan]

Will be interesting If support fails at roughly 4.80

Edit: can't seem to attach image :t_down: 8863

[Beagle]

Joshuatree - How do you define a clear turn around ?

[BlackPeter]

Will be interesting If support fails at roughly 4.80

Edit: can't seem to attach image :t_down: 8863

Does not look that way - lots of support above 480 but no sellers left. Pity ... my bid is (a small) part of the support - raise it or hope for another bounce?

[JoeGrogan]

Does not look that way - lots of support above 480 but no sellers left. Pity ... my bid is (a small) part of the support - raise it or hope for another bounce?

Yeah i had my order at 482 yesterday, then moved it up at the end of the day when i noticed that bid of 40,000 or so shares. Will be interesting to see see how many sellers are going to appear now that its hit 4.94

[winner69]

Joshuatree - How do you define a clear turn around ?

Like today

[Ghost Monkey]

And yesterday was a clear downturn. And tonight I'll need a drink to help clear my head after this last week. And tomorrow I'll be hoping for clear skies.

[Ggcc]

Looks like the big boys are out to play

[Joshuatree]

Here's why Jantar

As long as SUM keep building villages etc the line will continue to go upover time

I reckon now is a great time to buy - just like the other times when short term thinking 'investors' / punters have given up


Note - line is free drawn - not calculated or anything clever - just to show that as long SUM keep building things the line keeps going up

Great longterm chart w69 with all its peaks and valleys; certainly longtermers like dobby have caught a great wave; shows there are still stocks to buy and hold long;with the caveat from Bull about the govt possibly changing the goalposts in the future.No need to worry or waste time worrying about dips when that chart is sighted unless something has seriously changed; not imo. But stocks have their flat years like RYM which i sold after having a similar great run.

:) Roger ;clear in my head when everything stacks up and a buy signal comes up; when i have the funds ready, rebalancing my portfolio . I want more exposure to this sector. Been a bit of perfect storm lately to affect sentiment etc; a bit of doubt at the AGM re growth ahead,property values slowing; wages /costs up etc. When the TA looks better. Contrarywise when folks were enthusiasticly jumping in a few weeks back and going rah rah ,great buying ;a warning signal flashed up in my head. Getting opinions, reading up here and elsewhere. An individual decision as we all have different situs.

[Beagle]

Nice to see some institutional interest in buying today...been absent for a while now for some reason...

[Jantar]

After reading the helpful comments on here I took a small nibble at close today. Only 3.5% of my portfolio though so not taking any big risks at this stage.

[percy]

After reading the helpful comments on here I took a small nibble at close today. Only 3.5% of my portfolio though so not taking any big risks at this stage.

You are therefore "well positioned."
Best position to be in with huge tailwinds in this sector.

[Joshuatree]

I was visiting someone in a dementia ward today (not SUM). There was an unhappy elderly lady there ,quite disturbed. She walked past making spitting noises and the caregiver sitting opposite said "thats disgusting stop it" etc in a oud voice. Then the caregiver went and got a walking frame on wheels and while the unhappy patient's back was turned pushed the walker and sat down.The walker hit the patient (not hard) in the rear end. The caregiver found this amusing, the patient even more unhappy and humiliated. A nurse would hopefully have used diversionary tactics. The care giver was not from nz and maybe had an instinctive reaction to the spitting noises. Very sad all-round.

[Vince]

Interesting having a read through the last few pages of this thread to see what all the complaints were about this week.

There's only one solution to this, I've made Roger & Couta moderators but also made Balance a moderator also. They can sort it out now!

Have a pleasant weekend!

Vince

[kura]

Just received funds from sale of parents summerset apartment. Purchased 2005 for 235K, received 177K. Informed was resold for 450K last month.

Gunny

To put this another way, net cost to your parents was
- "Rental" of $58K, plus
- Lending SUM $177K interest free for 12 years

For a lifestyle your parents enjoyed, this seems a good deal. Only thing that would change my view, was if there were high monthly/annual outgoings, are you able to give us an idea of these costs ?

[777]

Interesting having a read through the last few pages of this thread to see what all the complaints were about this week.

There's only one solution to this, I've made Roger & Couta moderators but also made Balance a moderator also. They can sort it out now!

Have a pleasant weekend!

Vince


Great choice in the first two Vince but why screw it up with the third one.

[iceman]

Interesting having a read through the last few pages of this thread to see what all the complaints were about this week.

There's only one solution to this, I've made Roger & Couta moderators but also made Balance a moderator also. They can sort it out now!

Have a pleasant weekend!

Vince

Brilliant response. Love it :D

[Minerbarejet]

Interesting having a read through the last few pages of this thread to see what all the complaints were about this week.

There's only one solution to this, I've made Roger & Couta moderators but also made Balance a moderator also. They can sort it out now!

Have a pleasant weekend!

VinceThanks Vince.
I really enjoyed my two hours lying on the floor with hysterics.

[Elles]

Great choice in the first two Vince but why screw it up with the third one.

Obvious, Balance can give balance...

[kura]

Obvious, Balance can give balance...

Yes, but only if you agree with him.

Bit of a worry when only person on my ignore list is a moderator.

[percy]

Next step is Vince will have to ban himself.!

[Joshuatree]

Squeaky wheels get the oil?
Putting out fire with gasoline?
Arguably the two most binned posters, moderators?

[Beagle]

https://www.bing.com/videos/search?q=Dog+that+says+bugger&&view=detail&mid=662531D29F5B25591503662531D29F5B25591503&FORM=VRDGAR

[percy]

Squeaky wheels get the oil?
Putting out fire with gasoline?
Arguably the two most binned posters, moderators?

Maybe a case of "the lunatics taking over the asylum."????????????????..;.lol

[Beagle]

Definitely agree with the asylum bit...place can suck you in like the matrix and send you loopy.

[Beagle]

Squeaky wheels get the oil?
Putting out fire with gasoline?
Arguably the two most binned posters, moderators?

I think he's pulling your leg but I might frighten you and call his bluff :D

[Joshuatree]

Vince and anyone posting please use the emoticons as words , often can't convey the sentiment , lightness, seriousness, tone and misunderstandings result often.What can just be an opinion can be taken as an insult etc etc. OK:scared::D;):t_up:?

[Elles]

I drove past Summerset by the Sea in Katikati today, looked quite inviting and neat. Works have started on Stage 4, perhaps more villas?
Good to see it well looked after and expanding.

[kura]

OK. This thread is for Summerset. Let us get back on topic or our new acquired powers will be used.
OKhttp://www.sharetrader.co.nz/images/smilies/scared.gifhttp://www.sharetrader.co.nz/images/smilies/smile2grin.gifhttp://www.sharetrader.co.nz/images/smilies/wink2.gifhttp://www.sharetrader.co.nz/images/smilies/thumbup.gif?

Grats
Biggly effective way of killing off a conversation !

Goodbyee All

[Snow Leopard]

Bonds?

https://nzx.com/companies/SUM/announcements/301909

http://summerset.co.nz/bondoffer/index.html

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[trader_jackson]

Bonds?

https://nzx.com/companies/SUM/announcements/301909

http://summerset.co.nz/bondoffer/index.html

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

hmm bit confusing as I thought they could have easily gone to the banks for cash?

The banks not wanting to lend anymore (for now) to the highest leverage village maybe so going to the market for debt?

Likely have the above completely wrong

[JeremyALD]

In the PDS it has a key risk section and changes in the Property Market is listed as the first risk. I thought SUM said the propoerty market has a limited impact on their underlying NPAT?

[Fox]

In the PDS it has a key risk section and changes in the Property Market is listed as the first risk. I thought SUM said the propoerty market has a limited impact on their underlying NPAT?

Lower property valuation = Less amount of assets to cover creditors in the event of a liquidation.

[Bjauck]

hmm bit confusing as I thought they could have easily gone to the banks for cash?

The banks not wanting to lend anymore (for now) to the highest leverage village maybe so going to the market for debt?

Likely have the above completely wrong Maybe they think that interest rates are on the way up and now is the right time to raise money for expansion via 6-year term bonds. I think that the bonds are to be covenanted so that total debt does not exceed 50% of asset values. Reasonably safe?

[percy]

Bond issue makes very good sense to me.
Gives them another funding avenue other than banks.
Six years is a good time frame.

[winner69]

Bonds?

https://nzx.com/companies/SUM/announcements/301909

http://summerset.co.nz/bondoffer/index.html

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

Last August they touted the increased bank facility of $450m to cover future build

But if SUM offer bonds it must be a good thing

[winner69]

hmm bit confusing as I thought they could have easily gone to the banks for cash?

The banks not wanting to lend anymore (for now) to the highest leverage village maybe so going to the market for debt?

Likely have the above completely wrong

Maybe positioning themselves for a takeover of Arvida

Had to say that t_j

[couta1]

Bond issue makes very good sense to me.
Gives them another funding avenue other than banks.
Six years is a good time frame. A first for the retirement sector in NZ, but hey why not be different, I reckon these bonds will be quite desirable.

[trader_jackson]

Last August they touted the increased bank facility of $450m to cover future build

But if SUM offer bonds it must be a good thing

SUMthing doesn't quite sound right... I thought, given SUM's great track record of underlying NPAT growth (which can only ever continue, right?) banks would be bending over backwards to throw cash at this "safe as houses" investment, that is Summerset? (as they do boast every now and then how fantastic their debt facilities are...)
Now they seem to have gone cold on the idea... wonder what changed their mind?

winner69 you could be onto something... maybe they need it for the $2.50 takeover offer for that old dog that listed late 2014 at 95 cents?

[couta1]

Last August they touted the increased bank facility of $450m to cover future build

But if SUM offer bonds it must be a good thing No mate, their bank facility now stands at $600m.

[couta1]

SUMthing doesn't quite sound right... I thought, given SUM's great track record of underlying NPAT growth banks would only be to happy to throw cash at SUM? (as mentioned last August)
Now they seem to have gone cold on the idea... wonder what changed their mind? Your continual knocking of the stock is growing weariSUM, how about giving that ARV thread a good old ramp aye.

[winner69]

No mate, their bank facility now stands at $600m.

Thats right ... increased from to $600m

My bad

[trader_jackson]

Your continual knocking of the stock is growing weariSUM, how about giving that ARV thread a good old ramp aye.

I prefer to ask objective questions, or make objective statements (most of the time ;)), rather than ramp up a stock, particularly if that ramp is based on (likely) flawed "alternative facts" (ie opinions presented as facts)

[trader_jackson]

C'mon tj - you getting a bit emotional. Your hate for SUM (and love of ARV) makes you sound like an unreasonable person
Even Arvida had this as one of the main risks for investing in them

Property market risk: The Arvida Group’s future financial performance will be impacted by any decline in the property*market conditions or valuation methodologies etc etc:

Never said Arvida didn't have this risk... (although others on here have said this isn't a risk?)
ARV just has ALOT less debt (as a %)... I know it, we know it, everybody knows it folks ;)

[Beagle]

Very smart move by SUM. Julian Cook obviously using his investment banking background to diversify the funding base and locking in further funding for strong ongoing growth at close to 50 year interest rate lows. This together with the recently expanded $600m bank facility will provide a LOT OF HEADROOM for opportunities for land banking purchases at low prices if the market turns down.
The irony is this opportunity will probably appeal a lot to existing residents.

[peat]

margin still to be announced so i reserve comment , but given the recent flurry of bonds it will need to have an attractive rate otherwise it might bomb.

[winner69]

Tj I apologise for sounding unreasonable in earlier post. I meant to change what I said but you had already replied.

On saying that you do do seem to lose a bit of subjectivity and balance in your views - you are better than that

Cheers

[couta1]

Tj I apologise for sounding unreasonable in earlier post. I meant to change what I said but you had already replied.

On saying that you do do seem to lose a bit of subjectivity and balance in your views - you are better than that

Cheers I thought your post was completely reasonable, actually very honest.

[Beagle]

Wonder if they're gearing up for the start of their Australian expansion ?

[Beagle]

margin still to be announced so i reserve comment , but given the recent flurry of bonds it will need to have an attractive rate otherwise it might bomb.

SUM have better credentials than SUM others :)

[Jantar]

Mr Market doesn't seem to like the idea of bonds. $4.85 and dropping.

[couta1]

Mr Market doesn't seem to like the idea of bonds. $4.85 and dropping. Low volume, small holders doing the selling, probably old school thinkers who think any increase in debt is a bad thing/sign. A bond offer a bit outside of the square for SUM. PS-I was in that category myself a few years ago, until I realized it was flawed thinking. PPS-Take note, no big holders selling down, no Insto's selling either.

[peat]

indeed Couta1 - the bond issue (if successful) will diversify their capital base and likely improve performance metrics

[trader_jackson]

Mr Market doesn't seem to like the idea of bonds. $4.85 and dropping.

winner69, I see ARV is up?
People selling SUM shares before the $2.50 take over offer by SUM other retirement company?

[Food4Thought]

indeed Couta1 - the bond issue (if successful) will diversify their capital base and likely improve performance metrics

Couldn't agree more.

On the matter of a dropping share price. Good. I hope it drops another 20+ cents and then I'll be ready. Can drop another dollar for all I am worried , will make for a very good opportunity for me. Long term I see a inexcusable reason for this business not to do well. I'n 3 years time.... in 6 years.

Disc. Hold a reasonable parcel and very happy with the performance - so I am biased in the fact I like this company. Happy long term holder