SUM - Summerset Group

[Goldstein]

Quite a hard stock to put a fair value on.

They have a good management team in place to leverage the geriatric tsunami, but equally other players could enter the industry - or some of the small players ramp up.

Would your intrinsic value change from year to year with growth rates achieved Sparky?

I've been thinking that some sort of index that reflects this sector could be interesting to compare with the population over 65. Maybe RYM, MET and SUM weighted by market cap and normalised to the start of 2013. That seems a bit crude to me, anybody got any other thoughts? The idea would be to be able to use the forecasted population increase to estimate the growth of this sector.

[Snow Leopard]

Yes, over the next five years, 30% per annum on average in earnings growth.

So some years, a big spike in the order of 50%, in other years, more like 15%

An interesting idea.
Most (all) of the earnings for SUM are from increases in investment property value.
Existing properties you can only revalue by a few percent per year along with the fee increases.
The real room for gain is on the difference between the booked build cost of a new unit and the value as a fee stream.

As far as I can see SUM need to both up the build rate (as announced) and get the cost of build down (currently they are claiming 12% gain on new units).
Should they ever get to make real cash profits on care or anything that would be an added bonus of course.

I can foresee wild swings in profit growth, but I would be dubious of a 30% pa average.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[Snow Leopard]

2012 Annual Report, Page 9: [electronic version, starting at the 507th kilobyte]

"An increased development margin of 12% from 6.2% in 2011 was a significant driver of underlying profit".

But we (U & I) hope for better going forward, don't we?

and the
"Summerset is confident of achieving its medium term target of 300 retirement units per annum from 2015, an 18% annual growth on its current portfolio"
will be less than 18% of the 2015 portfolio.

I would wind your expectations down a notch, then they can over-deliver for you.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[Banksie]

Mrs Barlow reiterated that the company is not seeking to raise any new
capital through the listing

Excuse my ignorance - if they are not going to raise capital where do the shares for the ASX float come from? Do they buy back from NZX then re-list them as ASX?

[777]

It is not a float. It is a listing. It means all current Australian holders can trade the shares on the ASX.

[CJ]

[/COLOR]

Excuse my ignorance - if they are not going to raise capital where do the shares for the ASX float come from? Do they buy back from NZX then re-list them as ASX?Xero did the same thing - look at what happened to its shareprice following the ASX listing.

I am not sure how the shares get from the NZX to the ASX but put simply it requires a current holder to sell for someone on the ASX to buy. Therefore, supply is the same but demand has increased - anyone with ECO101 will know the result.

[Banksie]

Makes sense - thanks for the info - and thanks for spiking the punch moosie.

[Goldstein]

SUM looking to list on the ASX. I thought this would have had a positive impact on the SP. I notice that a lot of sellers come along occasionally and the chart flattens for a while. Then the sellers dry up and the chart moves north again.

[ddrone]

Has anyone run the fundamentals on SUM vs MET? I have RYM but feel now is the time to diversify a bit more, that one appearing over-valued at this time. Is this case for SUM and MET which have seen similar % gains in the past month?

[Dej]

Pretty big resistance at 3.20, as soon as it looks like its gone another big parcel appears!

[Huskeez]

Yeah i was thinking the same thing yesterday , 1.5 million traded so far today + yesterday, and the price has only fluctuate between 3.19 - 3.20 , some big seller out their off loading !

[Dej]

Yeah i was thinking the same thing yesterday , 1.5 million traded so far today + yesterday, and the price has only fluctuate between 3.19 - 3.20 , some big seller out their off loading !

As well as someone taking anything they can get. Not like we seeing a downward progression in price as the market becomes flooded with the sellers parcels. So, no worries from me.

[Dej]

As well as someone taking anything they can get. Not like we seeing a downward progression in price as the market becomes flooded with the sellers parcels. So, no worries from me.

I take that back lol

[Beagle]

Yeap the ASX listing looks a little "try hard" to me. They should spend their energy just getting on with running their business and leave the cost of an Australian listing to a company that will materially benifet from it.
Interesting that the big seller was ready and waiting to pounce on the publicity this news created.

Ths looks set to track sideways for a while until Quadrant's sale is finalised.
Bit of sideways consolidation is this sector wouldn't be a bad thing in my opinion.

[Blendy]

yeah, i've been stocking up on SUM this morning, and am closely watching RYM

[Goldstein]

Yep, I dumped this morning at $3.10. Wouldn't mind some more diclosure around Quadrant before getting back in.

[glasszon]

Ouch, this is starting to look ugly!

I saw Ryman down a similar amount, was there some news that I missed?

[Dej]

Sold at 3.15 in past few days, will maybe Rebuy if goes sub $3 again

[glasszon]

Glad I haven't missed any news, thought something came out since Ryman is also performing badly today.

turmeric - true, the reason why I think it is ugly is because while SUM don't perform as well as Ryman in the last few months, but the sell-off seems to be just as bad as Ryman when it happens.

[Dej]

Who has bets on bottoms? 295 I say. :p

[Beagle]

I did some soul searching on this stock recently after getting a double reading on my bullsh#t meter.
It first went off when they talked up the Aussie listing, (really getting too big for their boots in my opinion and just wasting money), if any company should list in Australia its Ryman for obvious reasons.

My other concern is the apparent manuipulation of the stock. I say apparent because it would appear as soon as the stock got to $3.20 or slightly above there was what appeared to be a carefully organised and consistent selling campaign by one or more major holders. They never put too much scrip up at once on the depth side but it was always there in reasonable volume and as soon as it was taekn out there was plenty more supply. This was especially apparent on the day the planned Aussie listing was announced.

We also have the situation where the private equity holder is well known to want to sell their stake.
I love this sector, and on the face of it this is a very attractive growth stock with an extremly good land bank in the fastest growth area of N.Z. (namely Auckland), but this is not the proven performer in the retirement sector and given the stock overhang I've decided to watch from the sidelines on this one for a while. I continue to hold Ryman's shares notwithstanding the huge increase in price over the last few months.

[Goldstein]

Yes, I'd echo those sentiments Roger and Moosie. I suspect it hasn't just been at $3.20 though - you can see the chart regularly plateauing over the last month or two. I noticed the sell bundles were coming through in 10,000 share lots. When they dried up, the minnows then pushed the price north.

It's interesting as there have been some reasonable buyers as well. No SSH's triggered so I guess we'll never know what has been going on.

Maybe we're all just paranoid and should get back to looking at the fundamentals of the stock

[Beagle]

The major holder is a substantial security holder, so would need to declare if they are selling down. They still have more than 5%, and they wouldn't be selling piecemeal, since they'd be needing to declare every little movement. That's the last thing they would want. Agreed Sparky, nonetheless I guess the way the selling was carefully orchestrated is what triggered me to sell most of my holding at $3.20 too, and cleared the rest out just over $3.00. More than happy to have another look when the private equity guys are done and dusted and it'll be sure to be placed at a discount.


Maybe we're all just paranoid and should get back to looking at the fundamentals of the stock Being highly paranoid is a pre-requsite to sucessful investing isn't it :D

[Snow Leopard]

The major holder is a substantial security holder, so would need to declare if they are selling down. They still have more than 5%, and they wouldn't be selling piecemeal, since they'd be needing to declare every little movement. That's the last thing they would want....

As far as I am aware SSH announcements are made when:
First: when you get to or exceed a holding of 5%;
Subsequent: when your holding is 1% or more different from previous announcement;
Last:when you go under 5%.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[Snow Leopard]

in that case, if you sell/buy in packets below 1% then you don't have to give notice of ssh change? even if you say sell down from being a 70% holder to a 10% holder as long as you do it in small increments? or, if the selling: s protracted in small packets, do you have to give notice when the selling ends?

Assume a holder of 70% who has issued an announcement to that effect.
They start selling 0.1% every day.
On the tenth day they have 69% and must issue a notice (within a couple of days?) to say they now have 69%.
Next they sell 5% in one go, so a notice gees out saying we have 64%.
Back to the 0.1% a day and the next notice will be ten days later when they get to 63%.

Same applies when buying, or buying and selling. When your holding has changed by 1% since last time you let everyone know.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[Hoop]

Who has bets on bottoms? 295 I say. :p

Conficius says..."Man who picks bottoms ends up with sh1tty fingers"

Sorry Dej.....couldn't resist...:)...had one too many Upper Cut cans (energy drink)

[troyvdh]

Dear glasszon...its a bit late ...but please never ever ever ever expect a SP to continue to appreciate for ever...after 30 plus years...I have learnt some lessons...i.e. lost dosh believing that a companies SP can rise for ever....please take head of postings of very wise folk who post charts et al...HOOP and his ilk (since Phaedrus has gone AWOL)...are a treasure.Cheers

[Dej]

Conficius says..."Man who picks bottoms ends up with sh1tty fingers"

Sorry Dej.....couldn't resist...:)...had one too many Upper Cut cans (energy drink)

I will let that one slide :p

If she stays around 295 then I will assume that jealousy in my prediction techniques made you say it :eek2:

Note: does not have anything to do with a crystal ball, just statistics..

[glasszon]

Any wild prediction as to what the announcement is?

[glasszon]

They have made so much money this year and will continue to do so for the next 20 that every unit buyer gets a free genetically engineered Unicorn that cries diamonds and poops gold?

Haha, maybe that's a bit over the top. Given I do have shares in SUM I guess I better not predict anything though.

[Beagle]

Hopefully they take the weekend for a good book-build and sell the lot. I think the company will be better off with new shareholders who have a long term vision for the future of the retirement industry in New Zealand.

[stoploss]

Last placement in mid March was at around 7.5% discount to the market. So if they apply the same discount, it should be priced around $2.79 or $2.80.

I think it still works on that price. They will kick themselves they didn't place to the market at $3.20 the other week!

I'm hearing they want 2.90 .........

[CJ]

EDIT: I was obviously far to slow to post and was clearly wrong. Please ignore:

[Quadrant maybe though I would expect they would wait for the ASX listing first so maybe an announcement/timetable for ASX listing.

An acquisition by them of a small player is another option though no need for market halt unless they need to raise cash for the purchase.]

[chad321]

Is it the market price that may dip after the halt or do current shareholders have access to a potentially discounted rate? Would the general consensus be that SUM are a good long term investment which should only continue its trend?

[CJ]

Is it the market price that may dip after the halt or do current shareholders have access to a potentially discounted rate? Would the general consensus be that SUM are a good long term investment which should only continue its trend?They will be offered at a discount ($2.90 suggested above) so some buyers in the placement may sell for a quick profit.

It will be a placement to institutions and through customers of the brokerage firm. Existing shareholders will not get the opportunity.

It is a good company but whether it is already fairly prices in the $2.90 - $3 range is the question. I was looking at it when it was $2.60 but sat on it too long and they shot up to $3.20. THis pull back has me interested.

[winner69]

Quadrant shares were in escrow until full year announcment

Then on Mar 6 they indicated to the NZ Herald that they were not about to sell, contary to market speculation

So what other reason do you need .... sale imminent ..... probably as sparks says

Quadrant not a natural owner of Summerset anyway .... but haven't they done well

See ... the NO was really a YES

'Keeping options' open always meany selling on the way

[Beagle]

I'm hearing they want 2.90 .........
More than a little opportunistic in my opinion, one day after the strong result from Ryman propelled this stock a bit higher. Insto's should tell em to get more realistic.

[brevos]

Does anyone know which brokers are placing shares in the Quadrant selldown?

[CJ]

I didn't know it was Summerset's business to talk about Quadrant's share sale! .Maybe he has been reading Rod Drury's playbook and decided he can comment on whatever the hell he likes, especially if he can put a positive spin on it ;)

Maybe his performance bonus is due soon so he is trying to hit one of his targets.

[Goldstein]

First NZ, and apparently it's all over. Didn't get any, didn't get asked. Did anyone out there get any and if so, at what price?

Well, the turnover is $100m with VWAP at $2.902, means it must have been $2.90 per share.

[Dej]

Well, the turnover is $100m with VWAP at $2.902, means it must have been $2.90 per share.

You can still see some of the trades in the depth, 500 000 parcels at $2.90. We have a new target set on price, but maybe, just maybe, it will only come down to 295 ;)

[Beagle]

Still plenty of private equity stock effectivly over-hanging the market and major sellers at $3.20, with limited near term prospects of significant price appreciation I see no reason to hurry back into owning this stock.
Best of Breed runs their operation far more professionally in more ways than one !

[Goldstein]

Still plenty of private equity stock effectivly over-hanging the market and major sellers at $3.20, with limited near term prospects of significant price appreciation I see no reason to hurry back into owning this stock.
Best of Breed runs their operation far more professionally in more ways than one !

Not quite sure I agree Roger (but that's what makes a market). A successful sell by QPE at $2.90 and the possibility of listing on the ASX are both favourable. I bought some at $2.98 today (about 20% of my previous holding).

[Beagle]

Not quite sure I agree Roger (but that's what makes a market). A successful sell by QPE at $2.90 and the possibility of listing on the ASX are both favourable. I bought some at $2.98 today (about 20% of my previous holding).

Little doubt Quadrant would have sold more if there was more demand at $2.90 so there's your boat anchor attached to the share price right there, in my opinion. That and this stock is on twice the historic PE as Ryman and Ryman are talking up rapid expansion in Australia whereas these guys are just "talking" and doing more of that than I feel entirely comfortable with to be honest. As you say, different views, that's what makes a market.
Happy to chew popcorn on the sideline for a while :)

[Zeitgeist]

Roger,

Just interested in where you got the fact from which says that SUM is twice the historical PE of RYM?

I think that I disagree $2.90 sets the ceiling...as I understand it, a discount is necessary for a large sale. We've seen with SUM (the first time), SKT, and TME (I think) as examples where a large seller settles for a discount only for the market price to rebound beyond the share price just before the trade halt.

I would also interpret Quadrant keeping a large chunk differently. Rather than a failure to flick the lot, I suspect they want to take some profit off the table but hang on for the ride in case the ride continues.

[stoploss]

Roger,

Just interested in where you got the fact from which says that SUM is twice the historical PE of RYM?

I think that I disagree $2.90 sets the ceiling...as I understand it, a discount is necessary for a large sale. We've seen with SUM (the first time), SKT, and TME (I think) as examples where a large seller settles for a discount only for the market price to rebound beyond the share price just before the trade halt.

I would also interpret Quadrant keeping a large chunk differently. Rather than a failure to flick the lot, I suspect they want to take some profit off the table but hang on for the ride in case the ride continues.

The share prices in the cases you mentioned above rebounded in a bull market, before a large amount was sucked out of the market by MRP. The fact that Quadrant still has shares and has shown they are a willing seller will keep a cap on the s/p in this stock my opinion. ( they have previously already taken profit )

[gv1]

market.ft.com
Some Analysts value SUM high end as $3.80 and RYM high end as $6.

[Beagle]

Price / Historical EPS, not that historical EPS has much to do with it in SUM's case as they're growing quickly.

To be clear, I didn't suggest $2.90 is a ceiling, but I feel their stake and their stated intention to quit may have a dampening effect on the share price in the future until its cleared out.

[macduffy]

FWIW, Macquaries have a price target of $3.90, assuming a build rate of 225 units pa, 75% of the company's target.

[macduffy]

Indeed!

I did a double take on the $3.90 and had to check my eyes/screen/sobriety.

[macduffy]

Not a lot of detail but here it is:

Summerset Group
We see significant upside
• In this note we summarise a number of announcements that have been made since the last result and their impact on our forecasts.
• In aggregate, these changes have lead to small downgrades for this and next year's earnings, but incited upgrades for future years.
• SUM is trading at a significant discount to our $3.90 price target, which is based on SUM developing 225 units pa (ie 75% of their target).

[MAC]

I’m I wrong to be looking at SUM like they are a roast dinner.

SP is at $2.88, 11% off recent highs, technical's looking well oversold, SP well undervalued now, some of the local brokers also have sum valued at $3.90 (+35%).

Last June we received an investor presentation about this time. I’m hoping that SUM get their timing just right and dual list on the ASX immediately after the Australians have finished crashing their share market. Let’s see what that may bring.

I bought SUM at $1.67 and am a bit overweight now with all the growth else I might be very tempted indeed to get the mint sauce out.

[MAC]

Update:

I'm by no means a technician but I do notice that the RSI for SUM is now at its lowest level since the IPO in November 2011. Support at $2.82 has also been tested and held three times in the last month or so.

This is starting to look like one of those rare entry points that seldom come around for a stock like this. Well done to all those who have been waiting with cash in hand for such a moment.

[NZSilver]

Below 2.90 is good value for Sum, how low will it go - who knows, but I bought another 1000 shares yesterday @ 2.84. I see a bit more positive share price pressure on SUM near term than RYM, but long term both are good investments. But then again, I could be wrong.

[Mista_Trix]

A puff piece on stuff;
http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/8807181/Three-big-retirement-villages-in-pipeline

[stoploss]

A puff piece on stuff;
http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/8807181/Three-big-retirement-villages-in-pipeline

Sounds like a lot of competition in this sector .....a big believer in Ryman , but nothing goes on forever...keep planting kiwifruit ( sell stock to the Italians ) keep planting sav Sav blanc ...

[Mista_Trix]

Not a puff piece. Genuinely good news for Lower Hutt - lots of jobs for people in that area, both during construction and afterwards.

My reasoning for saying it was a puff piece was that there's no analysis either way within the article, there's no opinion, just outlining what is. I don't disagree with what you've said either - good news for the local economy :)

disc - I hold SUM

[iceman]

Summerset doing well in Nelson (and so is Ryman). http://www.stuff.co.nz/nelson-mail/news/8819410/Summerset-celebrates-its-100th-resident

[noodles]

Thanks for that news update. Good to see Summerset and Ryman doing well in Nelson.

We should be expecting a quarterly sales update from Summerset on or around Friday 5 July. (Last year was 6 July, but 6 July is a Saturday this year).
Sparky,
what are your expectations for the sales update. New sales/resales?

[hilskin]

QUARTER: SUM: 2Q13 Metrics - Sales of Occupation Rights
SUM
08/07/2013 09:19
QUARTER

REL: 0919 HRS Summerset Group Holdings Limited

QUARTER: SUM: 2Q13 Metrics - Sales of Occupation Rights

NZX RELEASE

8 JULY 2013

2Q13 METRICS - SALES OF OCCUPATION RIGHTS

Metrics for the sales of occupation rights for the second quarter of 2013 are
provided below.

The Group achieved 52 new sales of occupation rights and 48 resales of
occupation rights for the second quarter of 2013.

This is an increase in total sales of 12% on the prior quarter, and a 23%
increase on the same quarter of 2012.

Year to date, 1H13 total sales have increased 11% on 1H12 and 18% on 2H12.

FY13 SALES OF OCCUPATION RIGHTS

See attached table

FY12 SALES OF OCCUPATION RIGHTS

See attached table

NOTES:

o Quarterly metrics on occupation right sales are provided by the 10th of the
month following the end of each quarter.

o The quarterly sales metrics provided may not necessarily reflect NZ IFRS
financial performance for the corresponding period. In particular, key items
in the income statement, such as the fair value movement of investment
property, are dependent on several variables, of which one is occupation
right sales. NZ IFRS financial performance is calculated for the periods
ending 30 June and 31 December each year.

ENDS

[CJ]

Have to love the NZX. Summerset posts a good result and RYM and MET increase more that SUM.

[CJ]

A very good result at face value (have not studied indepth)

Don't worry CJ, price always catches up with value....
I hold RYM and MET so not concerned. I just find it funny that the company with new news moves less than the two without new news.

[winner69]

Just purchased "One Up on Wall Street", "The Intelligent Investor", and "The signal and the Noise" SO hoping to learn a little more about value!!

The chapter on Bob the sports bettor 'Less and Less and Less Wrong' is the best chapter in the The Signal and the Noise. That is all about 'value' investing

The whole book is a good read and quite interesting but would say it does not live up to explainimg its title.

But good on Nate on cashing in on picking every state in the last elections..... he was only slightly better than most ..... but he got the publicity and has made zillions from his book since

Best 'value investing' book I have read is Michael Lewis's MONEYBALL ..... read it in the context of value investing and you get the gist of what buying value is. The Oakland A's my favourite baseball team. The film was rat****e

[macduffy]

I hold RYM and MET so not concerned. I just find it funny that the company with new news moves less than the two without new news.

But you know how it is, CJ. The market moves more on expectations than on actual results!

Bodes well for the entire sector - or so "we" think!

[Snow Leopard]

...The Oakland A's my favourite baseball team....

I used to go and watch them play at home whenever I could and still follow them.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

Disc: Hold SUM, MET & RYM

[NZSilver]

Based on yesterdays announcement

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/8893233/Retirement-village-firm-still-on-track

[winner69]

I used to go and watch them play at home whenever I could and still follow them.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

Disc: Hold SUM, MET & RYM

Going well this season .... 52/37 and got their nose in front of the Texas Rangers in the West

Maybe World Series playoff this year

Billy Beane a hero of mine

[ratkin]

Going well this season .... 52/37 and got their nose in front of the Texas Rangers in the West

Maybe World Series playoff this year

Billy Beane a hero of mine

Do you subscribe to MLB tv? it very good

[macduffy]

Meanwhile...........

Macquaries have reviewed SUM's latest sales numbers and have a 12 month price target of $3.90 and a valuation of $3.99.

[gv1]

Macduffy - wow, that's a bullish call. Though as a holder of SUM I have no problems agreeing to the upside.

My own intrinsic value calcs suggest 2013 IV of $3.54 and 2014 IV of 4.29. Halfway between is $3.92, or basically what Macquarie assess.

Only one of very few stocks undervalued in nzx.

[noodles]

Meanwhile...........

Macquaries have reviewed SUM's latest sales numbers and have a 12 month price target of $3.90 and a valuation of $3.99.
Are you able to share the valuation technique used for the valuation?

[macduffy]

Are you able to share the valuation technique used for the valuation?

Their research is "restricted" but it's a DCF valuation - (WACC 9.5%, beta 0.9, ERP 7.0%, RFR 4.5%, TGR 2.9%)

Cheers

[winner69]

The chapter on Bob the sports bettor 'Less and Less and Less Wrong' is the best chapter in the The Signal and the Noise. That is all about 'value' investing

The whole book is a good read and quite interesting but would say it does not live up to explainimg its title.

But good on Nate on cashing in on picking every state in the last elections..... he was only slightly better than most ..... but he got the publicity and has made zillions from his book since

Best 'value investing' book I have read is Michael Lewis's MONEYBALL ..... read it in the context of value investing and you get the gist of what buying value is. The Oakland A's my favourite baseball team. The film was rat****e

Here's a real economist review of The Signal and the Noise
http://www.paulormerod.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/10/Naturereview-of-Signal-and-Noise-Aug-2012.pdf

Like me he doesn't think Nate does a good job explaining the signal bit ....but none the less a good read with some interesting stories

[CJ]

This looks like a mechanism by which Quadrant sell out to Aussie based institutions and private investors, with ongoing trading on the ASX for ease of local investors. No capital raise of any kind.I predict listing on ASX, then Quadrant sells down into institutional demand. They might be able to get it away without a big discount.

[MAC]

Well there it is, SNZ on the Australian board.

And what an opportunity for our aussie cousins to invest in NZ's leading awarding winning village operator.

[NZSilver]

If im correct - Summerset (NZX:SUM, ASX:SNZ) begins trading today on ASX? could be an interesting day....

[JayRiggs]

SNZ.ASX is now trading on the ASX.
There is a buyer at $1, but no sellers yet!

[NZSilver]

Haha, how does it work??? how do shares move from NZX to ASX, if there are no shares on offer already on the ASX?, how do they get sellers unless a big owner dumps a bunch of shares. at 3.03 NZ price and exchange rate 0.85 = $2.57 AUD, so if he gets them at $1 its a bargain!

[MAC]

It does seem that Quadrant are not spinning their wheels to sell down on day one. It's possible when they do they may still go off market to insto's who would then trickle into the market over time when they get around to their first re-balance.

Could take a long while, let's not go holding our breath or anything.

[troyvdh]

some serious money coming in today....its always good to have a good base....cheers

[MAC]

Summerset have recently stated that they don't intend to expand into Australia, a policy which I support due to specifics with that market. I wonder though if they have ever considered offering NZ's most award winning residential and care model to the US ?

http://www.cnbc.com/id/100935149

[CJ]

Borrowing from RYM play book again. Challis was CFO before making CEO, the MD

[gv1]

My heart leaped into my mouth when I read Norah Barlow was to retire. First thoughts were - "That's a sell signal".

Then I read who was replacing her - the CFO Julian Cook. He's the perfect choice. Cancel the sell order!

https://www.nzx.com/companies/SUM/announcements/239576 (CEO changeover statement)

Barlow will remain on the board as a director.

Financials look great: Underlying profit up 45%, NPAT of $10m

https://www.nzx.com/companies/SUM/announcements/239575 (financials)

Good results.

[MAC]

Absolutely agree, a very good result for SUM, I've also raised my valuations slightly.

I see SUM as havng much greater present value than RYM. It's probable that both stocks will continue to rise as the larger funds continue to buy the sector and the demographic rather than stock pick, but SUM so with lower risk for now.

[baller18]

Good buy at the current sp? Was thinking of buying when it was at 2.8 but didn't have spare funds

[percy]

looking over the numbers - jeebus this is a good result for SUM.

On track for 9.5c EPS for 2013, I had estimated 8.6cps. Growth looking superb at this point.

On my IV calculator, I put SUM at an intrinsic value of just under $3.60, and on FY2013 earnings just over $4.20

What a note for Norah Barlow to retire on!

A very good result.We find ourselves very "well positioned!"

[Toasty]

http://www.stuff.co.nz/taranaki-daily-news/news/9037875/55m-retirement-village-in-wings

I am sure that the more researched among us already know about this, but I found it reassuring to see proof of the companies ongoing expansion plans.

[macduffy]

FWIF, Macquaries have a DCF valuation of $3.99 on SUM, with a 12 month target of $3.90.

[Hoop]

I'm not as excited as the brokers sorry:(..
Fundamentals may be fine but the techinicals are looking bearish with the excellent news...indicating this result was already factored in the price.....

Phaedrus's favourate indicator is the OBV Smart money exiting are very strong signals that a top is closeby.
If the $3.13 small resistance is breached ...be cautious of a possible bearish double top pattern forming if the price fails at $3.20 / $3.25 area


http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/SUM15082013.gif (http://s458.photobucket.com/user/Hoop_1/media/SUM15082013.gif.html)

[CJ]

Phaedrus's favourate indicator is the OBV Smart money exiting are very strong signals that a top is closeby.I wonder if OBV is the best indicator. When this was listed, it was always expected the Quadrant would sell down over time. I would suggest then that the QEP sell down should be eliminated from the OBV and other values.

[Lorne Ranger]

I wonder if OBV is the best indicator. When this was listed, it was always expected the Quadrant would sell down over time. I would suggest then that the QEP sell down should be eliminated from the OBV and other values.

This stock is perplexing. Good on target performances, new leadership without concerns, strength to strength it would seem yet not reflected in SP, cant seem to break through the 3.10 resistance. Is it just Quadrant selling out in small parcels?! Any clue as to what is occurring, this stock seems to defy logic at the moment (well my logic anyway).

[CJ]

This stock is perplexing. Good on target performances, new leadership without concerns, strength to strength it would seem yet not reflected in SP, cant seem to break through the 3.10 resistance. Is it just Quadrant selling out in small parcels?! Any clue as to what is occurring, this stock seems to defy logic at the moment (well my logic anyway).They would have to disclose if they sold more than 1% so unlikely to be them. It could just be the overhang in the market as everyone expects them to dump the rest of their holding at some point at a ~5% discount to market - to bad if you bought the day before.

[777]

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11115186



Good news for Summerset. Though they still lack consent for Hobsonville, unless I missed this being granted somehow?

IIRC they were turned down for the Hobsonville site. They may have reapplied of course.

Here it is

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/8334269/No-go-for-Summersets-Hobsonville-village

[Hoop]

I wonder if OBV is the best indicator. When this was listed, it was always expected the Quadrant would sell down over time. I would suggest then that the QEP sell down should be eliminated from the OBV and other values.

CJ !!!!!!!!!!!!!!............that's naughty :)...........you can't do that...you can't just pick out data and discard it because it is doing something you don't like.

[Zaphod]

Summerset granted consent for $70m village

NZX-listed retirement village company Summerset has been granted resource consent to build a $70 million complex at its site on Hingaia Road, in Karaka, on Auckland's southern outskirts.

The 3.6ha village will be the company's 17th and its third in the Auckland region.

Construction at Karaka is expected to start this year, with the first stage of homes completed in late 2014, the company said.

The village will be made up of about 120 homes including villas, townhouses, and care apartments. It will also have a 49-care bed centre offering rest home and hospital-level care.

Shares in Summerset last traded at $3.06, unchanged from Monday's close.

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11115186

[Zaphod]

Indeed. See a few posts above!

But good news can be happily repeated....

Whoops! I must have scrolled right past that post. Sorry about that!

[percy]

Consent for Glenfield Village.

[percy]

Stage one of Dementia.!!!!!!

[MPC]

Happy with the recent supressed price. this is my pick for one of the best long term investments around and I will be buying as many as I can afford after loading up earlier this year at about $2.30. great sector with huge upside potential

Cheers,
MPC

[MAC]

I agree, SUM has been a little undervalued now for some time.

Perhaps what we are seeing is a Mexican standoff between Quadrant and the market. Quadrant may well be awaiting a slightly higher exit point, the market doesn't like the over hang and won’t commit to SUM until Quadrant are history.

And, the SP has been in trading range for four months now, wish they would just get on with it ?

[swillisam]

Half year report is out: http://www.summerset.co.nz/investor_centre/2013%20Half%20Year%20Report.pdf

[iceman]

Big turnover today. 3,050,000 shares sold off market after close at $3.05. Hopefully this is Quadrant slowly offloading without dropping the price, which should underpin current price and together with the positive half year report released last week, will hopefully support an upward move in the near future.

[Lorne Ranger]

So a few days of finally cutting the $3 rope and taking some flight, looks like that 3m buy out was Quadrant dumping at last?

I thought this thread would be more excited? :t_up: Or are we just quietly confident?

[Mista_Trix]

I've been buying all the way up, with my average now sitting only just below the $3 mark, so it's good to finally have some movement, but I'm also hoping for a lot more.
But YAY!! none the less :-S

[baller18]

YUp I got in today as well!!
Everything from the MACD, RSI looks good!

[Heffner]

So a few days of finally cutting the $3 rope and taking some flight, looks like that 3m buy out was Quadrant dumping at last?



10th of September - ACC sold 0.6% of their holding.

[Slam dunk]

On the 14th of August (after SUM's 1H13 result announcement) FNZC published a target price of $3.55. The market never really reacted to SUM's excellent 1H13 result at the time but perhaps it is now (or perhaps it's more accurate to say the price is being allowed to appreciate now that Quadrant may be finished selling).

[baller18]

Hopefully SUM can break through the $3.2 mark today...

[MAC]

On the 14th of August (after SUM's 1H13 result announcement) FNZC published a target price of $3.55. The market never really reacted to SUM's excellent 1H13 result at the time but perhaps it is now (or perhaps it's more accurate to say the price is being allowed to appreciate now that Quadrant may be finished selling).

There you go Slam dunk, back to all time highs of $3.20!.

With SUM being 'best in breed' with all those awards from within the industry, and having such an enduring demographic going forward, Quadrant won't have any impact at all in the long run. I'm just happy to leave my SUM holding in the bottom draw growing and growing.

[Toasty]

I bought a bunch at $2.66. I can see now that I didn't get enough.

[benjitara]

I bought a bunch at $2.66. I can see now that I didn't get enough.


I bought a few at $2.97. I can see now that I didn't get enough.

nice company to hold. the market simply didn't react to the half yearly all that much and now it's catching up

[Toasty]

I bought a few at $2.97. I can see now that I didn't get enough.

nice company to hold. the market simply didn't react to the half yearly all that much and now it's catching up

Lol. I like these types of companies over the DILs and XRO purely for the fact that they are solid performers that are reasonably easy to analyse and pay a dividend which I also like. Keeps the stress levels down.

[iceman]

Milford announcing this morning that they have become a substantial shareholder. Buying in in reasonable volume at $3.16.

[MAC]

Milford announcing this morning that they have become a substantial shareholder. Buying in in reasonable volume at $3.16.

It is interesting that Milford are buying on market rather than waiting for a Quadrant sell down, or, perhaps that's off the cards now for a while ?

[iceman]

It is interesting that Milford are buying on market rather than waiting for a Quadrant sell down, or, perhaps that's off the cards now for a while ?

Yes one would assume that Milford would have assessed that possibility first, so that is interesting. Maybe Quadrant is happy to hold on a bit longer ?

[CJ]

Yes one would assume that Milford would have assessed that possibility first, so that is interesting. Maybe Quadrant is happy to hold on a bit longer ?Milford is struggling with places to put its money. For this reason, it is closing its number 1 fund. No doubt if Quadrant do sell, Milford will buy even more.

[Silverlight]

Milford is struggling with places to put its money. For this reason, it is closing its number 1 fund. No doubt if Quadrant do sell, Milford will buy even more.

Do Milford do KiwiSaver? This maybe the first signs of significant growth in the NZ funds management industry after years of consolidation (at the firm level anyway).

This is only good news for our capital markets long term.

[CJ]

Do Milford do KiwiSaver? This maybe the first signs of significant growth in the NZ funds management industry after years of consolidation (at the firm level anyway).Yes. They are keeping their kiwisaver open but closing their normal "Active NZ fund" to new investors.

[CJ]

Do Milford do KiwiSaver? This maybe the first signs of significant growth in the NZ funds management industry after years of consolidation (at the firm level anyway).Yes. They are keeping their kiwisaver open but closing their normal "Active NZ fund" to new investors.

[winner69]

Are those numbers released good or bad or just so so?

[MAC]

Are those numbers released good or bad or just so so?

Looks ok to me winner, solid confirmation of the upward trend, 19% growth, good.

[Dej]

This thread has gone very quite recently!

[macduffy]

This thread has gone very quite recently!

Perhaps that's because there's not a lot to say! SUM seems to be tracking along nicely but one quarter's sales doesn't mean a great deal on its own.

I'm holding.

[Dej]

I'm holding.

So am I. The safe part of my portfolio ;)

[JayRiggs]

Yes I am still accumulating at these levels. SUM is my biggest holding, but always hungry for SUM more.
Very pleased with the performance. After today's latest sales numbers, we can probably expect a total of 380 sales for 2013 vs 331 sales for 2012.

Look forward to Quadrant selling more for us!

[Banksie]

According to whaleoil NZ herald are planning an hatchet job on rest homes.

http://www.whaleoil.co.nz/2013/10/exclusive-anatomy-apnnz-herald-hit-job/
http://www.scribd.com/doc/176744941/How-the-NZ-Herald-Plans-a-Hit-Job

Could make for some opportunities.

[iceman]

According to whaleoil NZ herald are planning an hatchet job on rest homes.

http://www.whaleoil.co.nz/2013/10/exclusive-anatomy-apnnz-herald-hit-job/
http://www.scribd.com/doc/176744941/How-the-NZ-Herald-Plans-a-Hit-Job

Could make for some opportunities.

Great to see how objective and good journalism works in NZ. What a disgrace these people are, setting out on "investigations" like this with predetermined outcomes.

[Toasty]

According to whaleoil NZ herald are planning an hatchet job on rest homes.

http://www.whaleoil.co.nz/2013/10/exclusive-anatomy-apnnz-herald-hit-job/
http://www.scribd.com/doc/176744941/How-the-NZ-Herald-Plans-a-Hit-Job

Could make for some opportunities.

That's disturbing. Certainly throws doubt on everything you see in the media. I have been losing faith in the media for quite some time but this certainly accelerates that process.

[clip]

Definitely disturbing/interesting! Holding SUM currently, weighing up whether to sell out now and buy back if/when it drops, or a bit further down the track. hmm...

[clip]

Definitely disturbing/interesting! Holding SUM currently, weighing up whether to sell out now and buy back if/when it drops, or a bit further down the track. hmm...

[CJ]

Not sure if the big boys will be that effected. I am sure most of the dodgy places are the small independents that dont have economies of scale.

[Zaphod]

Finally....

SUM
18/10/2013 09:44
GENERAL

REL: 0944 HRS Summerset Group Holdings Limited

GENERAL: SUM: Trading Halt

NZX, ASX AND MEDIA RELEASE

18 OCTOBER 2013

TRADING HALT

Summerset Group Holdings Limited has been advised that its major shareholder,
QPE Funds Management ("QPE") is in the process of selling its shareholding.
QPE has requested that Summerset seek a trading halt on the NZX and ASX to
enable the transaction to occur. Summerset has sought and obtained this from
the NZX, and has requested a trading halt on ASX.

Further details will be provided in due course.

ENDS

[MAC]

Finally....

SUM
18/10/2013 09:44
GENERAL

REL: 0944 HRS Summerset Group Holdings Limited

GENERAL: SUM: Trading Halt

NZX, ASX AND MEDIA RELEASE

18 OCTOBER 2013

TRADING HALT

Summerset Group Holdings Limited has been advised that its major shareholder,
QPE Funds Management ("QPE") is in the process of selling its shareholding.
QPE has requested that Summerset seek a trading halt on the NZX and ASX to
enable the transaction to occur. Summerset has sought and obtained this from
the NZX, and has requested a trading halt on ASX.

Further details will be provided in due course.

ENDS

I see this as a timely positive, will remove the overhang, possibly allow for a top up opportunity, and probably allow more liquidity on the SNZ market.

Interesting that Quadrant "is in the process of selling its shareholding", not intends to sell or place it's shareholding ?

[CJ]

There wasn't much of a discount last time. I do hope it drops big so I can buy in but am a bit short on funds at the moment having applied for MEL and my biggest holding DIL not doing to well.

[Joshuatree]

Craigs offered me some @ a 5 cent discount. Thanks but no thanks.

[JayRiggs]

Craigs offered me some @ a 5 cent discount. Thanks but no thanks.

Is that a 5c discount from the last closing price of $3.14? That isn't much at all!

[CJ]

Craigs offered me some @ a 5 cent discount. Thanks but no thanks.So $3.10. Its been trading under that for most of the last fortnight.

Having said that, with the overhand removed, we may not see sub $3.10 again.

[gv1]

Craigs offered me some @ a 5 cent discount. Thanks but no thanks.
That's good buy.

[Joshuatree]

Really! Nah ,id rather wait till FKP unload their big holdings in Metlife, could be more in that. Brokers also charge commision re 3c in this case.

[Joshuatree]

Tumeric unless you have an account with a full services broker methinks youd seldom if ever get offered an op like this. Craigs are great!:) Of course you could have two accounts one with a low service low commission dealer ASB, Direct etc for trading and an account with craigs for investing ie no tax.

[Joshuatree]

You can try but my broker wanted a decision from me by 10.30am

[macduffy]

It's not a great discount but I like the company and the sector so have put my hand up for a few. If I get all I asked for SUM will be one of my bigger NZ holdings. Will be interesting to see how much I get scaled.

[Dej]

Seems the cap is lifted! New highs here we come!

[clip]

Just saw rhe number of announcements and sp spike, wahoo :) can't read rhem on phone unfortunately. Gkad to have got in 2 weeks ago :D

[CJ]

Yeehaaawwww! Look at those names buying up large. Way better buy than MEL!They are the brokers - I think that is just a temporary thing.

[Dej]

They are the brokers - I think that is just a temporary thing.

Its brokers buying on behalf of their clients isnt it?

Either way, after a major sell down you expect price to decrease, good sign it has actually caused an increase in SP.

Disc: Holding

[CJ]

Either way, after a major sell down you expect price to decrease, good sign it has actually caused an increase in SP. I expect it to drift down from here on profit taking. The $3.10 should be the floor though.

[macduffy]

I have apparently been allocated 70% of what I asked for. Happy with that.

:)

[Lorne Ranger]

I have apparently been allocated 70% of what I asked for. Happy with that.

:)

Would that indicate it was about 40% over prescribed then? Seems a reasonable jolt of SH endorsement?

[macduffy]

Would that indicate it was about 40% over prescribed then? Seems a reasonable jolt of SH endorsement?

I doubt whether we could draw too many definite conclusions from one (my) experience. There were apparently four brokers involved; different levels of interest from clients of each?; different treatment of clients within each brokerage? But I think it's probably reasonable to conclude that the placement was well sought, particularly as the SP finished up.

[swillisam]

Interesting to see that MET and RYM are having good days on the market (up 15 and 16 currently), while SUM is down 4 currently. Possible hangover for SUM from the positive share reaction from last Fridays QPE's exit and retail investor cashing up on a quick gain from buying QPEs shares?

[Dej]

Interesting to see that MET and RYM are having good days on the market (up 15 and 16 currently), while SUM is down 4 currently. Possible hangover for SUM from the positive share reaction from last Fridays QPE's exit and retail investor cashing up on a quick gain from buying QPEs shares?

Most likely, just a small term blip I would say. Will be breaking its current highs soon enough, needed this added liquidity.

[MAC]

I imagine there are some who are taking quick profits after buying at $3.1 in the QPE selldown....

Interestingly SUM was down 1.3% but SNZ was up 1.5% on record volume, albeit a humble record of 200k shares traded. Kiwi's taking a quick profit, Aussie's buying up more ?

[MAC]

It’s been another reasonable turnover day for SUM.

Does anyone know whom the seller may be that continues to trap the SP below $3.25 ?

[Goldstein]

It’s been another reasonable turnover day for SUM.

Does anyone know whom the seller may be that continues to trap the SP below $3.25 ?

I would have thought that if it was one seller then there would have been SSH notices issued. The way the shares have traded over the last couple of months it certainly looks like one big fish drip-selling.

[Dej]

I'm sure someone will correct me if I'm off the mark, but I would have thought quite a lot of selling is to be expected given it was less than 2 weeks ago that 50million shares got sold at $3.1. Selling in the $3.20-$3.25 range may only be a small % gain but times that by millions of shares and there's a decent amount of money that is being made in a very short space of time. I suspect large volumes will be traded for another week or so before we settle in again to normal trading and hopefully continued steady rises in the SP.

Very good thinking, I completely over looked that.

Sounds about right in my books, thanks Turmeric!

[Mista_Trix]

Its made for a very boring couple of months on a stock where the numbers are looking awesome, management is doing great and everything is falling in line ... ... except the SP remains almost static.
Snooze.

DISC: HOLD

[MAC]

Flat for six months now and due for a move, I think Tumeric is right, it may still take another few days to clear the quadrant overhang, up from there, also holding.

[clip]

NZX AND ASX RELEASE
1 NOVEMBER 2013
SUMMERSET TO COMMENCE CONSTRUCTION IN KARAKA
Summerset has announced a $70 million retirement village for the Counties-Manukau area of Karaka.
The retirement village operator has been granted resource consent for the initial phase of the village, which will comprise some 125 villas, townhouses, apartments and care apartments on a 3.6ha site at Hingaia Road, Karaka. It will also offer rest home and hospital-level care. The company has a further 1.2ha adjacent to the site which would allow for further expansion subject to resource consent.
Named Summerset at Karaka, it will be the leading retirement company’s 17th village. This will be Summerset’s third village in the Auckland region after villages in Manukau and Warkworth, with another two land sites at Ellerslie and Hobsonville.
Summerset CEO Norah Barlow said, “It’s a beautiful site that will maintain the characteristics that make Karaka special – the village will have a rural feel. It’s going to be a great village in a fantastic location. We’re very pleased to have the opportunity to build there.”
Summerset CFO Julian Cook says the Counties-Manukau area is going to see enormous growth in both the total population and the aging population in the future. “Our Karaka village will provide the people of that area with another high quality Summerset village after Manukau, with the full range of care and independent living options.”
ENDS
Julian Cook
Chief Financial Officer
julian.cook@summerset.co.nz
04 894 7310 or 029 894 7310
Kimberley Rothwell
Communications Advisor
kimberley.rothwell@summerset.co.nz
04 894 6993 or 027 601 2001

could be a bit of volume on this this morning

[Toasty]

I am assuming that we knew this was coming? I didn't but my research is abysmal. I can't see how it can be anything but positive.

[Iolite]

I am assuming that we knew this was coming? I didn't but my research is abysmal. I can't see how it can be anything but positive.

We knew about the resource consent:

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11115186 (http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11115186)

So all this announcement really confirms is that construction will commence, although they don't specify a date...

[CJ]

So all this announcement really confirms is that construction will commence, although they don't specify a date...
Unless it signals an increase in the number of units being built per year (ie. an increase in the existing build rate), then it is factored into the price already - it doesn't really matter where the new units are, as long as they are building a certain amount. From memory, they are targeting over 300 units per year.

[JayRiggs]

Could break that 3.25 resistance today.
The Karaka construction announcement is good news. A successful appeal to approve the Hobsonville site would be even better news though. That would be an increase on number of units, as CJ points out.

[MAC]

Wonder if this will shift it much?

SUMMERSET TO COMMENCE CONSTRUCTION IN KARAKA

Summerset has announced a $70 million retirement village for the Counties-Manukau area of Karaka.

The retirement village operator has been granted resource consent for the initial phase of the village, which will comprise some 125 villas, townhouses, apartments and care apartments on a 3.6ha site at Hingaia Road, Karaka. It will also offer rest home and hospital-level care. The company has a further 1.2ha adjacent to the site which would allow for further expansion subject to resource consent.

Named Summerset at Karaka, it will be the leading retirement company's 17th village. This will be Summerset's third village in the Auckland region after villages in Manukau and Warkworth, with another two land sites at Ellerslie and Hobsonville.

Seems to have done the trick, just needed a friendly reminder of growth from SUM management to move things along.

[Toasty]

$3.27. Highest ever? I don't see it going ballistic but maybe we will settle higher today?

[Mista_Trix]

Yup. The retirement sector (in terms of SP movements) seems to go in spurts AND all feed off each other (RYM, SUM & MET). I feel like we are in the middle of one of these spurts now but the SUM is lagging a bit due to the recent sell down...

Its been lagging for a while. I weighed up RYM and SUM for a while and what convinced me was the awards they have won in the sector for customer service etc. But the gains in RYM and lack there of in SUM have been quite frustrating.

[MAC]

Its been lagging for a while. I weighed up RYM and SUM for a while and what convinced me was the awards they have won in the sector for customer service etc. But the gains in RYM and lack there of in SUM have been quite frustrating.

My FA provides me with SUM as being quite undervalued at present, MET slightly overvalued now following recent gains, and RYM well overvalued as it has been for some time.

I would not be at all surprised to see some rotation within the sector now, from RYM into SUM, now the quadrant overhang is gone.

[Toasty]

I would not be at all surprised to see some rotation within the sector now, from RYM into SUM, now the quadrant overhang is gone.

I for one support your idea of substituting RYMs price for SUM. That's how I read it anyway.

[Mista_Trix]

Did we know about this already?
https://www.nzx.com/companies/SUM/announcements/243339

I've been busy with the ups of PEB and down of CNU. :-S

[MAC]

Did we know about this already?
https://www.nzx.com/companies/SUM/announcements/243339

I've been busy with the ups of PEB and down of CNU. :-S

Fantastic news to see Hobsonville released and all good to go now, can never tell what random outcomes may occur when a resource consent is held up.

[NZSilver]

Should see some upwards action today!

[fiasco]

Excellent news. Jumped on the bandwagon yesterday after doing some numbers plus the research provided by senior memebers on here, this looks like a very firm investment to add to my portfolio :)

[MAC]

I like this quote from Norah:

“In our experience, many of the people moving into retirement villages are down-sizing from three and four bedroom family homes. I believe this will play a part in assisting Auckland’s housing shortage and fulfil the council’s goal of ensuring all Aucklanders are living in secure, healthy homes they can afford.”

It’s entirely in keeping with my theory that the NZ housing market will stall and go backwards when all those baby boomers start selling up over the next few years. Best dump those rentals and buy some SUM.

[silu]

Getting into the Agecare sector with SUM and MET. Bottom drawer stuff. Ready to be open when I retire at 55 ;)

[JayRiggs]

Ah wonderful news! Good on Norah Barlow and the team :)

[Wolf]

3.3 breached.. here we go

[Goldstein]

Good to see. Interesting that the number of buyers and sellers appear less today. I wonder if the big fish are finally settling after the Quadrant sell-down.

[silu]

Bought medium parcel of SUM at 3.30 without much research. But generally looking for a long time frame with this one especially with a dividend reinvestment plan in place.

[Lorne Ranger]

Good to see. Interesting that the number of buyers and sellers appear less today. I wonder if the big fish are finally settling after the Quadrant sell-down.

I think the Quadrant sell-down has been hanging over this stock and underpricing it for a while now, it really needed to happen and for the stock to get some distance on that looooong 2.90-3.10 value period. So looking pretty rosey for this stock at least up to 3.70-3.80 to comply with the true value proposed by many. A way to go yet....

Disc: sold out to buy PEB but will get back in shortly!

[Beagle]

My FA provides me with SUM as being quite undervalued at present, MET slightly overvalued now following recent gains, and RYM well overvalued as it has been for some time.

I would not be at all surprised to see some rotation within the sector now, from RYM into SUM, now the quadrant overhang is gone.

Learned from previous mistakes and backed up the truck and filled it up BEFORE talking about it this time.
Fact is this company is growing ar a far quicker pace than RYM and has a substaintial pipeline of new developments to underpin that growth over the forseeable future.
Combine real earnings growth of ~50% with the prospect of it continuing due to bringing in all the construction process in-house and this company on a 2014 forward PE looks very, very cheap in view of the strong tailwinds prevailing in this sector.

Why own a stock growing @ circa 15-18% (RYM which may well incurr a growth hiccup in Aust), when you can own one on a cheaper forward PE growing at circa 3 times that rate and without the risk of Australian expansion !!
Factor in Quandrants exit, (which was a necessary step before I jumped in boots and all) and a significant number of new institutional shareholders, who all want the same thing, SP growth, along with a solid clearly defined project pipeline and you have a recipe for outstanding share price appreciation in 2014 in my opinion. My #1 pick for 2014. Disc, sold all Ryman.

[NZSilver]

Sold a chunk of RYM at $7 to Buy PEB (hard to sell rym, when its been so good to me), bought some met - had to sell them after price rise to buy peb (broker was getting angry), have had sum for a while, topped up at 2.80 when it dropped a while back. Both rym and sum will do well, rym hitting aussie - could do very well in this market. also INA in aus, could do well (dont hold). I think holding both RYM and SUM is a way to go and MET will also come thorugh hopefully. I think it would be silly not to have some retirement sector exposure if you invest in NZ shares! But agree SUM still cheap at these prices, should be $4 (they have very nice properties ready for development)

[fiasco]

Looks like it will provide a 52 week high given the price remains at 3.330.

Will be excited to see how Summerset develops further this time next year!

[Beagle]

But agree SUM still cheap at these prices, should be $4 (they have very nice properties ready for development)

Agree. Their approved waterfront Hobsonville site is truly exceptional and will prove extremly popular with Aucklanders.
I'm making the call now. If SUM isn't at least $4.33 by this time next year I'll eat my hat.

[apac]

Agree. Their approved waterfront Hobsonville site is truly exceptional and will prove extremly popular with Aucklanders.
I'm making the call now. If SUM isn't at least $4.33 by this time next year I'll eat my hat.

No need to do that, but would be good to remind us what your prediction was this time next year.

[Zaphod]

I topped up SUM but still hold all my RYM.

I like the sector first and foremost, and clearly I agree with you that SUM is a good long term BUY. On the other hand in terms of RYM I still see the history of their management executing as a big plus (SUM is catching up though), and see the OZ expansion as a risk (of course) but also as something that brings massive growth potential!

But I do agree that SUM is cheap relative to RYM! I'm happier to diversify a bit in this sector though!

Yes, I agree and I too have held on to my RYM while also buying SUM.

RYM still have a much better development margin of circa 24% versus SUM's 12% as well as having a much higher build rate due to scale, but SUM are improving both of aspects very quickly.

IMO both companies can continue to grow at these rates in the NZ market for the foreseeable future.

[Beagle]

^^ Build rate for Ryman is 700 per annum and they're trying to maintain that at ~ 15% growth per annum so by 2015 we could see a build rate of about 900 per annum but that's for a company with a market cap of $3.8 billion 5.27 times the market cap of SUM.

SUM are projecting a build rate of 300 per annum in 2015 so relative to Ryman size the're build rate is rising faster and is higher and they're building a higher percentage in Auckland where there's still a real housing shortage.

Ryman are a great company and I believe that's fully reflected in their present share price its simply that I would rather invest in a company that's growing much faster and is materially under-rated by the market and one that I perceive has better locations around the country, (Ryman is too concentrated in Christchurch for my preference). There's also heaps of room for SUM's improvement with development margins with development being brought mainly in-house from the present calendar year, wheras there's little if any scope for margin improvement with Ryman.

Ryman are priced for perfection at $7.77 and thier already large size works against them for future growth, in my opinion. Any disappointment regarding Australian roll-out could materially impact the SP. Its usually good to have a diversity of stocks but I'm comfortable in this instance in taking a more aggressive and centered focus in what I consider to be a very safe sector. I would have thought given the long delay in approval for the Hobsonville site and given its size and location the announcement of its approval this morning would have had a greater positive effect on the SP. Not one to look a gift horse in the mouth, especially on Melbourne Cup day, I bought more :)

[silu]

Feeling quite pleased with my 3.30 purchase yesterday. Thinking an increased coverage in the media will help SUM to reach new heights.

[iceman]

Feeling quite pleased with my 3.30 purchase yesterday. Thinking an increased coverage in the media will help SUM to reach new heights.

Looks like there are no sellers left today looking at the depth :)
We were right alongside MET a few weeks ago so time to catch up again !!!

[silu]

I was wondering whether the SUM mention on 3 News will have any impact. I guess it had a little :)

[Mista_Trix]

I was wondering whether the SUM mention on 3 News will have any impact. I guess it had a little :)

One of the odd ones like nightline or firstline, or actual 6pm?

[silu]

One of the odd ones like nightline or firstline, or actual 6pm?

6.30pm Business Segment of 3 News. Was one of the first mentions after the usual Xero bull****.

[Beagle]

Well I did my best in a noisy pub environment to fully explain the merits of SUM to those who attended the Auckland meeting on Monday night.
Not sure if my semi-drunken ramblings made much sense but for those that missed it SUM is growing at circa 50% per annum and are on a forward 2014 PE of just over 20, they're growing at roughly three times the rate of Ryman and have 5 excellent sites in Auckland, (RYM is capitalised at over 5 times the market cap of SUM so would have to have 26 sites in the lucrative high demand Auckland area to have the same profile. SUM's PEG ratio Price earnings to growth is less than 0.5. You can make a LOT of money out of finding a good stock on a PEG ratio of less than 1. O.5 is rocket fuel stuff. Now that our private equity "friends" are finally out of the way all the overhang is finally gone and we will see this puppy shine like the star its rapidly becoming. The incoming CEO has very good credentials and will be very keen to prove himself.

For those that think they've missed the boat, have you really ? The stock was $2.20 in January 2013 and earnings are growing at ~50% per annum so its not really like the stock is ahead of itself...

[glasszon]

Yay, finally the SP took off. I guess removing the overhang by Quadrant really helped.

Disc: Hold SUM

[Ginger_steps_]

So what are the ST.co.nz gurus valuing SUM at? ?

[fiasco]

Go back a few pages, there was some great analysis by the senior members, such as Roger and the likes.

Glad I picked up a fair bit during last week after further analysis. Will look to free some funds up and add, perhaps see how the end of the week goes. But definitely a great long term stock :)

Looks like some traders were in for a quick buck!

[Beagle]

FWIF, Macquaries have a DCF valuation of $3.99 on SUM, with a 12 month target of $3.90.


looking over the numbers - jeebus this is a good result for SUM.

On track for 9.5c EPS for 2013, I had estimated 8.6cps. Growth looking superb at this point.

On my IV calculator, I put SUM at an intrinsic value of just under $3.60, and on FY2013 earnings just over $4.20

What a note for Norah Barlow to retire on!


Forbar have a new price target of $3.50. As of yesterday.


This stock is perplexing. Good on target performances, new leadership without concerns, strength to strength it would seem yet not reflected in SP, cant seem to break through the 3.10 resistance. Is it just Quadrant selling out in small parcels?! Any clue as to what is occurring, this stock seems to defy logic at the moment (well my logic anyway).


That is exactly what I expect it is. Why would an insto pay more when they expect quadrant to offload at $3.00 or less?

Once we're free of the Quadrant overhang, this thing will sing all the way to $4.00, and arguably beyond.

Little trip down memory lane. These comments are from August BEFORE Quadrants exit, Karaka's approval and announcement of construction, Hobsonville's consent which is an important milestone for this large development and the recent excellent quarterly sales result. Sadly we no longer have Sparky's excellent input, (although quite why someone suddenly feels they need to leave completly rather than just measuring their time and input more carefully, escapes me), but I think he's on the money with $4.20 based on 2013 earnings so we could easily see this stock in the mid-late $4 range this time next year in anticipation of a strong 2014 year result.
Fantastic buying especially after this afternoon's pullback...

[fiasco]

Always appreciate the analysis Roger!

Just topped up during that fluctuation :)

[Baaarney]

Great work on compiling those comments Roger
I appreciate your time and comments on SUM

[percy]

It is very pleasing to see Roger posts on SUM.[and other companies]
A clever mind,who does excellent research and is willing to share with us.
I am sure all of us at the Auckland get together heard you clearly.

[goldfish]

Am i the only one dissapointed how the price fall back to what it was at start if day? Why would everyone sell just as its getting traction.

[fiasco]

My perception is, there are new traders around trying to find a quick profit from stocks. With SUM getting some traction they might have been an easy target. The depth was next to nothing before lunch time, now all of sudden multiple sellers trying to get rid of them, which to me makes no sense. I have no doubt there are many more reasons, but that's how I felt looking at it today, which doesn't bother me too much given I'm interested more in the long term aspect of it.

[Goldstein]

Am i the only one dissapointed how the price fall back to what it was at start if day? Why would everyone sell just as its getting traction.

Don't fret goldfish. $3.7M changed hands today at a VWAP of $3.40. That is good upward pressure.

[macduffy]

Am i the only one dissapointed how the price fall back to what it was at start if day? Why would everyone sell just as its getting traction.

Plenty of reasons:

It's a market, with a plethora of different views on future price movements, both market-wise and stock-specifically.

Participants range from day-traders to longterm portfolio investors, using a variety of analytical methods - or none! - and making highly varying assumptions.

Etc.

:)

[Beagle]

It is very pleasing to see Roger posts on SUM.[and other companies]
A clever mind,who does excellent research and is willing to share with us.
I am sure all of us at the Auckland get together heard you clearly.

Oh shucks Percy, you're far too kind mate. It was a real pleasure meeting you and I look forward to meeting up and chewing over investment stratagies in the future :)


Am i the only one dissapointed how the price fall back to what it was at start if day? Why would everyone sell just as its getting traction.

No you're not the only one by any means. I went off just before lunchtime to get some new tyres for my wife's car thinking I'd paid for them several times over with profits from SUM that morning. Its never that easy and important to keep a medium term perspective. I'm in for a minimum 5 year term and will be happy if the share price doubles in that period of time, although I'd have to admitt i'm quietly confident this will happen much sooner than that but when it does that will be a bonus rather than an outright expectation. 15% compound growth in Ryman = double your money in 5 years, what does a company growing at 45-50% compounded over five years equate too... Don't all rush to your calculators at once :)

My perception is, there are new traders around trying to find a quick profit from stocks. With SUM getting some traction they might have been an easy target. The depth was next to nothing before lunch time, now all of sudden multiple sellers trying to get rid of them, which to me makes no sense. I have no doubt there are many more reasons, but that's how I felt looking at it today, which doesn't bother me too much given I'm interested more in the long term aspect of it.

No question some traders are taking a quick buck from their recent investment ex the quandrant selldown @ $3.10. I expect this to continue for a little while yet as a 40 cent (13%, $3.50/$3.10) profit in a matter of a couple of weeks or so is too hard for some people to resist, notwithstanding the fact that this is on good fundamental news. Some people could be day trading this stock too.

[JayRiggs]

Was just looking at the latest update for the Milford Active Growth Fund.
I noticed their RYM allocation from October to November has gone from 2.3% to 1.5%.
And for SUM, it's gone from 2.1% to 2.7%.

Seems like Milford have taken some RYM profits and put more into SUM.

[Beagle]

Thanks for sharing mate. They're a well managed fund so it gives me some comfort when i've backed my own valuation judgement by completly exiting Ryman and gone in boots and all with SUM.

[gv1]

Great choice, your uni qualification has come in handy.

[hilskin]

SUMMERSET NAMED BEST IN AUSTRALASIA FOURTH YEAR RUNNING


http://news.media.mdgms.com.s3.amazonaws.com/7991ab9760b70f4d0ba70d26ad0d4fe3

[MAC]

SUMMERSET NAMED BEST IN AUSTRALASIA FOURTH YEAR RUNNING

http://news.media.mdgms.com.s3.amazonaws.com/7991ab9760b70f4d0ba70d26ad0d4fe3

Well done to the team at Summerset, surely and absolutely undeniably now the best company in the sector.

[Beagle]

Very pleasing indeed to see them win this independently assessed award for the fourth year in a row. This is THE award standard for benchmarking in the industry and it should give investors a great deal of comfort on two fronts.
Firstly and perhaps most importantly, this shows the industry recognises them as the best possible "Gold" standard in looking after our older folks needs so investors can take comfort that this is a highly ethical and well performing company that really looks after our senior citizens. Secondly, the importance of this award shouldn't be underestimated in terms of its attractiveness to potential new entrants to Summerset's villages and the ability of Summerset to grow them and the brand.

The comapny itself and its investors are very well positioned for substaintial growth for the forseeable future. I will be adding significantly more in the months ahead.

My thoughts on how my Dad was treated in his last few months of his life last year in the dementia ward at one of Ryman's facilities are on record in the Ryman thread, and were a contributing factor to my exit from that company. This is why I am so passionate about the proper care of our senior citizens and am very proud for Summerset to win this award.

[couta1]

Hi Mac, Yes I may have screwed up on my CNU holding but I got this one right I have 145k Summer set shares and wouldn't mind more I backed the truck up a few weeks ago as Roger did and can totally endorse his comments and projections, Summer set is the only one of the big 3 currently quite undervalued,I estimate Sum current true value at around $3.80, Met at $4 and Rym at $6.9, I think Met has run ahead of itself and Rym is fully valued my advise for any members thinking of buying Sum do so before next year or you'll miss the boat, double your money in 5 years in Rym or triple it in Sum your choice

[couta1]

Mac I'm basing my value of Rym on them succeeding in Aussie so I think our values are fairly close even if Rym succeeds in Aussie their bottom line profit will be significantly less than in Nz due to higher operating costs and intense union involvement on behalf of their workers etc it seems the market has been wrong on Sums value for some time now

[Beagle]

I agree Couta with all that and have a larger holding in SUM, for comparison my FA provides me with SUM $3.86, MET $3.78 and RYM $5.74.

That’s not to say that the entire retirement sector will not continue to progress further and may well hold above fundamental valuation for some time. The demographic trends and defensive nature of the sector could well be enduring for some years if not a decade or so. My views on this reside here;

http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?8822-RYM-vs-SUM&p=423538#post423538

SUM's peg ratio is very very cheap for this sector.
I took my boat up yesterday to look at their new Hobsonville site from the water, its going to be a highly appealling large new development in my opinion. The approval of this site development, the removal of the Quadrant overhang and the fourth consequentive award this morning are all value accretive in terms of improving what is allready a highly attractive stock in my opinion.
Oh and they are not adverse at all to owners having a pet with them in retirement and seeing as I'm dog obsessed this makes them more user friendly.

[couta1]

Hi Roger, Another Summerset gem once it gets the go ahead will be the Boulcott site in lower Hurt a prize location right behind the central Hutt and hospital etc overlooking the river interesting this site will be smack bang distance wise between the Rym village in Avalon and its yet to start Petone site but by far the most attractive sites of the 3

[Goldstein]

Well done to the team at Summerset, surely and absolutely undeniably now the best company in the sector.

Yep, I hope they do everything they can to protect their name. They are building a very good brand.

RYM have had a few slip ups regarding resident care and also building faults.

[winner69]

We'll be ok as long as the government doesn't get the idea that excessive profits are being made in this sector and do something about it.

How much government cash do the likes of rym and sum collect?

[couta1]

Winner the Govt funding is currently under what it takes to run the care centre portion of the retirement villages any that choose to pay caregivers above the minimum wage do so out of there own profits why do you think so many small operators have gone out of business over the last few years all the profits come from sale of new units and resale of the same so to answer your question the sector is already underfunded by the Government

[couta1]

Further to that if the Government were to reduce funding some more, companies with mainly care centres only would get to the point where it would be considered unviable to continue operating in Nz they produce some profit by continually cutting costs and reviewing staff rosters, you can't mix the profits that Sum/Ryman/Met make with care centre funding they are separate animals and most people on this forum wouldn't understand that

[winner69]

I wasn't really only thinking about the funding they give

Maybe some industrious person in the MBIE will think heck these guys make exorbitant profits and some of their income comes from us so we better curb that .....and get even more confused when they see the money made on building things so somehow cap that .....and even tie that into an affordable home policy.

So question is .....could the government intervene to stop excessive profits in this sector?

[couta1]

Winner with the ever increasing need and demand I think it would take a very foolish Government to interfere in this sector unless they want poorer levels of care as a spin of which I think Labour/Greens would be even more adverse to than National

[Hoop]

Seeing through Rose Tinted Glasses when the sun is shining makes life seem more rosy looking :cool:
Disc Hold

[percy]

To be named best retirement village operator for the fourth year is a great achievement.Well done.!

[Goldstein]

Winner with the ever increasing need and demand I think it would take a very foolish Government to interfere in this sector unless they want poorer levels of care as a spin of which I think Labour/Greens would be even more adverse to than National

I was just going to say the same thing. The government is completely not set up to deal with the volume of people moving into retirement age. Unless they have an alternative, they would not risk the private investment going on in this sector.

[Toasty]

I was just going to say the same thing. The government is completely not set up to deal with the volume of people moving into retirement age. Unless they have an alternative, they would not risk the private investment going on in this sector.

That is if you assume any Government is entirely rational...

[couta1]

When dozens of families start contacting the media re their relatives terrible care due to any funding shortfalls they will quickly become rational

[Beagle]

National have recognised the ever increasing need for specilaist care in the Dementia sector and in recent budgets has boosted funding is this area. Cunliffe doesn't stike me as being complelty stupid, just wants toi give the little guy a fairer deal. We are extremly well positioned.
Minimum living wage issues ($18.40 per hour) could be likely to become as issue in the forseeable future and could affect those companies who have made promises to fix their tenants fees for life (i.e. Ryman).

I would have thought winning this award would have been worth a few cents of value on the shares, (Net present value of all the future business and cash flow benifets of winning)...effectivly they're better value today @ $3.38 with this award that before it at $3.37 on Friday, in my view.

[Dej]

National have recognised the ever increasing need for specilaist care in the Dementia sector and in recent budgets has boosted funding is this area. Cunliffe doesn't stike me as being complelty stupid, just wants toi give the little guy a fairer deal. We are extremly well positioned.
Minimum living wage issues ($18.40 per hour) could be likely to become as issue in the forseeable future and could affect those companies who have made promises to fix their tenants fees for life (i.e. Ryman).

I would have thought winning this award would have been worth a few cents of value on the shares, (Net present value of all the future business and cash flow benifets of winning)...effectivly they're better value today @ $3.38 with this award that before it at $3.37 on Friday, in my view.

Personally, I would have expected the news to bring this bird a little higher. As the general tone on this thread is of optimism, it seems that has not set in entirely into the stock price.

But we all can wait, if sparky taught me anything it was patience.

[Beagle]

Personally, I would have expected the news to bring this bird a little higher. As the general tone on this thread is of optimism, it seems that has not set in entirely into the stock price.

But we all can wait, if sparky taught me anything it was patience.

Yes, sage advice my friend. I see we're now at $3.37 so Mr Market is saying the granting of this prestigious award for the fourth year running is meaningless and of no commercial value to the company, which is clearly nonsense.

[Dej]

Yes, sage advice my friend. I see we're now at $3.37 so Mr Market is saying the granting of this prestigious award for the fourth year running is meaningless and of no commercial value to the company, which is clearly nonsense.

Yeah baffles me, this is the sort of behavior that I expected when we had the sell down in place, e.g. a retrace on price after any news as they sold; but thats gone now so…. I got no explanation!

[MAC]

I'm a little disappointed that I can't find a single news article covering today's prestigious announcement, but what we're seeing still I think is a continuation and perhaps a tailing off of short term profit taking following the Quadrant exit and the downward pressure on the SP that comes with it. All good things come with a little patience.

[fiasco]

It might be an advantage for those looking for a top up?

[silu]

shhhh i'm buying more.....

[Beagle]

Yeah baffles me, this is the sort of behavior that I expected when we had the sell down in place, e.g. a retrace on price after any news as they sold; but thats gone now so…. I got no explanation!

I havn't either apart from the residual effect of short term profit taking by investors who got in a little while ago @ $3.10 ex the quandrant sell-down. By really...that sell-down itself and finally getting rid of that massive overhang is a positive driver for SP appreciation in itself and there's been quite a bit of other news and positive developments since then.

Buying opportunity ?

[couta1]

Now I have to decide to buy some RYM or go ballistic on Sum and bury what's left of my big loss CNU sellout into it giving me over 200k shares? Decisions decisions

[silu]

Just bought some more at $3.35. It hit now 15% of my portfolio so by my rules I have to stop buying now.

[couta1]

Hi Silu, Its currently making up 50% of mine and may even buy more I'm not worried about rules with this stock just tripling my money in 5 years hopefully (Doubling on the low side)

[silu]

Good Luck. I have made some expensive mistakes when I fell in love with a stock that's why I'm spreading my holdings around now. I don't have the mental attitude towards aggressive swings anymore.

[Mista_Trix]

Hi Silu, Its currently making up 50% of mine and may even buy more I'm not worried about rules with this stock just tripling my money in 5 years hopefully (Doubling on the low side)

I'm not judging, but a comment on your circumstances may be that you are feeling a bit of pain as the outcome of not having investing rules, or understanding your own investment personality. I know you said you've recently moved your money from the banks into the share market, and have quickly learned it can at times be a very unforgiving mistress.

I think most people here have reflected on what type of investor they are and written, or at the very least considered rules that allow them to play to their personality types and stay out of trouble.

For me I am at the beginning of both my investing 'career' and literal 'career, and know that I can be a little freer with my rules as time is on my side. But you've said you will be working for a couple more years because of what the government has done in regard to CNU. I don't want to perhaps point out the obvious but this may in some part also be because of a lack of rules you have 'written' for yourself to try and play the market by.

A balanced and well considered portfolio going into retirement age might be better aligned to your circumstances compared to one where you want to 'double your money in 5 years'. There's no such thing as get rich quick in the share market, if it happens it often happens by accident.

The investment personality your playing to and your personal circumstances may not necessarily be currently aligned, especially if luck turning on a share means you will be working for longer and retiring later.

Just trying to help :)

[Goldstein]

I'm feeling a bit like Monty Python's Mr Creosote as far as SUM goes.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rXH_12QWWg8

There are only 18000 more wafer thin shares at $3.35 (as I write this)

[Goldstein]

I'm feeling a bit like Monty Python's Mr Creosote as far as SUM goes.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rXH_12QWWg8

There are only 18000 more wafer thin shares at $3.35 (as I write this)

[Snow Leopard]

Hi Silu, Its currently making up 50% of mine and may even buy more I'm not worried about rules with this stock just tripling my money in 5 years hopefully (Doubling on the low side)

You really are your own worst enemy.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[Beagle]

I'm feeling a bit like Monty Python's Mr Creosote as far as SUM goes.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rXH_12QWWg8

There are only 18000 more wafer thin shares at $3.35 (as I write this)

LOL great humour that eases the annoyance of a down day after such great news.

As far as a well diversified portfolio goes, yes great conventional investment wisdom but please direct me to other stocks with such a compelling growth / valuation story as I can't find any.

[couta1]

Paper Tiger you could be right im just enthusiastic for the stock my wife and I decided to put around 75% of our portfolio into Ryman and Sum which we had before I whizzed over to CNU to grab a dividend planning on then coming back over again but chose bad timing and found ourselves in CNU media beat up I will probably balance out with some Rymans now,thanks

[Wolf]

Hi Silu, Its currently making up 50% of mine and may even buy more I'm not worried about rules with this stock just tripling my money in 5 years hopefully (Doubling on the low side)

You shouldn't put so much into one company... Every company has risks. If you hadn't bought such a large holding in CNU your losses would have been much MUCH less!
I thought this would have been a good enough incentive to make yourself a rule to not invest too much in one stock. CNU is a speculative stock fulled with political turmoil! I personally don't put more than 5% into a speculative stock. Making mistakes are alright as long as you learn from them!

Stop trying to get rich quick!

The retirement industry is obviously a lot safer industry but again i personally wouldn't put anyone near 50% in one stock. I understand you have experience/knowledge in the retirement industry and if that's true then good idea sticking with what you know, but still be careful throwing money around.


I estimate Sum current true value at around $3.80, Met at $4 and Rym at $6.9, I think Met has run ahead of itself and Rym is fully valued my advise for any members thinking of buying Sum do so before next year or you'll miss the boat, double your money in 5 years in Rym or triple it in Sum your choic

How did you come up with those figures if i may ask?

It seem's to me like you are buying/selling based on what people say on ST here SNK..CNU.. anything else? Don't buy based on what other people say DYOR.

Personaly i don't think your currently in the right mind set to be investing. Reading your CNU post's it looks like after taking a paper loss on CNU you are throwing it into SUM trying to catch the share price appreciation you missed out on.

I suggest you read Intelligent investor, one up on wall street, all the sharetrading books you can get your hands on and talk to a financial adviser.



Disl:
Don't buy or sell anything based on what i say i'm new to trading too see a profesional. I'm sorry if anything came of harsh i don't mean to be. I am just suggesting that you make yourself some rules, read those books, talk to a financial adviser and do solid research on the shares you own and the shares you may want to own.

[silu]

Good post Wolf. It's a well worn cliche but "Not putting all your eggs in one basket" rings truer than ever.

[Beagle]

EPS growth of 25% per annum for five years = triple your money in five years if the PE stays the same.

Huge tailwinds in the sector.
Strong pipeline of well positioned new developments.
Increasing margins due to bringing development in house like Ryman do.
Stock overhang removed.
Growing brand awareness due to consistemtly winning the prestigious awards leading to positive demand for future developments
Broker valuations kicking around $4 a few months ago before the recent spate of positive news.

[Goldstein]

It's an interesting situation. If you diversify across the sector, then arguably RYM and MET have more potential downside given anything happening like another financial crisis, a big hit on the NZD, etc.

[Beagle]

I think its a really good move getting out on CNU. Diversification is fine IF you can find a range of stocks that you believe are compelling value and have an excellent and clearly defined growth stratagy. I am stuggling to find other compelling growth propositions and am mindful that Ryman has tripled in price in the last two years and is not without risk having embarked upon their overseas expansion plan.
Ryman priced for asbsolute perfection, growing more slowly and with greater risk ? and have I mentioned shoody service in some of their Dementia facilities, putting profit before people ?
Metlifecare has been one of the worst managed companies on the NZX. Get some more runs on the board and then I might be interested in them.

[couta1]

Hi Moosie/Roger/Wolf and others,Its been a tough today alright a few small tears shed and my wife has given me a severe scolding for selling retirement stock and being greedy by whizzing over to Chorus to collect the large dividend and getting caught right in the middle of the nutty internet coalition launch etc as we had agreed to leave 75% of our portfolio is Sum and Ryman thanks Moosie for sticking up for me I must shout you a beer next time Im iin napier , Roger I'm right with you on this one, there's another old saying that says put all your eggs in one basket and watch it intensely, actually apart from Sum and Rym I only have around 5% in each of Peb/Dil/Zel/Ttk/MRP/SLi and 0.5% in Snk

[Wolf]

Hi Moosie/Roger/Wolf and others,Its been a tough today alright a few small tears shed and my wife has given me a severe scolding for selling retirement stock and being greedy by whizzing over to Chorus to collect the large dividend and getting caught right in the middle of the nutty internet coalition launch etc as we had agreed to leave 75% of our portfolio is Sum and Ryman thanks Moosie for sticking up for me I must shout you a beer next time Im iin napier , Roger I'm right with you on this one, there's another old saying that says put all your eggs in one basket and watch it intensely, actually apart from Sum and Rym I only have around 5% in each of Peb/Dil/Zel/Ttk/MRP/SLi and 0.5% in Snk

I'm sorry if i came off strongly it sounded very much like you were jumping in and out of stocks. Bit of bad luck with Chorus really. I really do suggest you read those books if you haven't read them though. I'd suggest looking at stop losses too, if you'd implemented one on Chorus it would of helped out but the stock market is always clearer in the rear mirror than the front i guess. I'm aware of the saying just make sure you do watch it intently :t_up:. No regrets either we've all screwed up.