SUM - Summerset Group

[Brain]

The independent dementia units are only suitable for a small number of dementia sufferers, a lot of sufferers found in any of the dementia units, no matter the company, would be unable to reside successfully in one of these units for a variety of reasons, some obvious and some not so.

It would be good if you could elaborate on the reasons Couta. I have had no experience of dementia (yet) and hence no real knowledge so have no understanding as to why the units would only be suitable for a small number of patients.

[Beagle]

Did I see $7.03 at close? First time ever ... a record close .....and on a big down day on the NZX

Well we can look forward to 8 bucks by Christmas now

Happy with my target of $9.43 12 months out. Market starting to appreciate that SUM stocks are going to perform and grow really well regardless of the possibility of any so called trade war between the Chinese and American's. Looking forward to the annual meeting to get a bit more colour on how things are going and have a chat with senior management and directors. Might try and pick there brains on how they see their prospects in Australia too.

[peat]

yes indeed a good performance on a down day is a great sign.

[BlackPeter]

Happy with my target of $9.43 12 months out. Market starting to appreciate that SUM stocks are going to perform and grow really well regardless of the possibility of any so called trade war between the Chinese and American's. Looking forward to the annual meeting to get a bit more colour on how things are going and have a chat with senior management and directors. Might try and pick there brains on how they see their prospects in Australia too.

Classic - never say an old dog can't learn new tricks ;);

[couta1]

It would be good if you could elaborate on the reasons Couta. I have had no experience of dementia (yet) and hence no real knowledge so have no understanding as to why the units would only be suitable for a small number of patients. Number one reason would be cost, buying a Licence to Occupy for a family member who on average only has a couple of years to live is a large barrier for family members, especially those who don't want to loose at least 25% of their inheritance,sad but a fact of life. That leads me to another reason, some dementia residents have a bent toward destruction of material things and any damage done to their unit would have to be paid for by the family or be added to the 25% fee(I've seen solid bolted handrails destroyed by some residents) Another reason is many dementia sufferers are happier in a more confined space, they feel safer and less anxious. Other things you may not know are that the independent units are not closed off from the standard dementia unit, although the sensors are set at night time. Also the kitchen in each are not real in the sense of having working electrical equipment or running water, bit like a dolls house.

[stoploss]

Number one reason would be cost, buying a Licence to Occupy for a family member who on average only has a couple of years to live is a large barrier for family members, especially those who don't want to loose at least 25% of their inheritance,sad but a fact of life. That leads me to another reason, some dementia residents have a bent toward destruction of material things and any damage done to their unit would have to be paid for by the family or be added to the 25% fee(I've seen solid bolted handrails destroyed by some residents) Another reason is many dementia sufferers are happier in a more confined space, they feel safer and less anxious. Other things you may not know are that the independent units are not closed off from the standard dementia unit, although the sensors are set at night time. Also the kitchen in each are not real in the sense of having working electrical equipment or running water, bit like a dolls house.

Couta , do SUM have a scaled fee per year ? Ie: If you live in it 5 years or longer you take a 25 % haircut on license resale . However if you live "on average a couple of years " the haircut might only be 8-10- % ?

[couta1]

Couta , do SUM have a scaled fee per year ? Ie: If you live in it 5 years or longer you take a 25 % haircut on license resale . However if you live "on average a couple of years " the haircut might only be 8-10- % ? After 3 years you get the full 25% haircut, I haven't got the sliding scale percentage on-hand but I know it's not a great reduction.

[Brain]

Number one reason would be cost, buying a Licence to Occupy for a family member who on average only has a couple of years to live is a large barrier for family members, especially those who don't want to loose at least 25% of their inheritance,sad but a fact of life. That leads me to another reason, some dementia residents have a bent toward destruction of material things and any damage done to their unit would have to be paid for by the family or be added to the 25% fee(I've seen solid bolted handrails destroyed by some residents) Another reason is many dementia sufferers are happier in a more confined space, they feel safer and less anxious. Other things you may not know are that the independent units are not closed off from the standard dementia unit, although the sensors are set at night time. Also the kitchen in each are not real in the sense of having working electrical equipment or running water, bit like a dolls house.


Thanks Couta

[Beagle]

Increases in fees fixed to increases in NZ Superannuation
We guarantee that increases in Weekly Fees and Service Package charges cannot exceed increases in NZ Superannuation.

Interesting, off their website...who knew that ? Super is adjusted for inflation each year so in real terms people have fixed fees for life. Some cunning hound might have suggested that approach.

[winner69]

Interesting, off their website...who knew that ? Super is adjusted for inflation each year so in real terms people have fixed fees for life. Some cunning hound might have suggested that approach.

And Jacinda is giving them $800 every winter to keep their cosy units warm. Neat eh

[couta1]

Interesting, off their website...who knew that ? Super is adjusted for inflation each year so in real terms people have fixed fees for life. Some cunning hound might have suggested that approach. Still with Ryman you get the adjusted amount in your pocket, as spending money. An improvement on times of old though, so you deserve a bark Mr Hound.

[Beagle]

And Jacinda is giving them $800 every winter to keep their cosy units warm. Neat eh

Great isn't it. My mum has a good Mitsubishi heat pump in her unit with a coefficient of performance of over 4:1 so can turn that into more than $3,000 of heating energy.
I think Daiken have the very latest (N.Z.'s only seven star rated heat pump) which would do considerably better than that !
Buy a good heat pump for your aging parent if they haven't already got one. Let's do this :)

[dobby41]

Buy a good heat pump for your aging parent if they haven't already got one. Let's do this :)

If they are in a village they wouldn't be able to do that would they?
Take what they get.

[Zaphod]

And Jacinda is giving them $800 every winter to keep their cosy units warm. Neat eh

You mean the tax payer is giving a $800 payment to them to spend on whatever they like.

[winner69]

You mean the tax payer is giving a $800 payment to them to spend on whatever they like.

Haven't worked out what to do with mine yet mate

[macduffy]

If they are in a village they wouldn't be able to do that would they?
Take what they get.

I think the big three companies allow "appliances" to be installed, with approval and at one's own expense in independent living units/apartments. Restoration back to the original condition on vacating the premises would be another cost.

Happy to be corrected if I have this wrong.

[LAC]

Numbers are a lot lower than last year but at least they are still on track.
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/316459

[Beagle]

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/SUM/316459/277329.pdf

Best not to get caught up in one particular quarters numbers. This is a long term thing and the forward PE at 16 and their track record of growth suggests this is one of the best long term investments on the NZX.

[percy]

lol.
Not like you.?

[couta1]

lol.
Not like you.? He's got his Percy portfolio nowdays.

[oldtech]

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/SUM/316459/277329.pdf

Best not to get caught up in one particular quarters numbers. This is a long term thing and the forward PE at 16 and their track record of growth suggests this is one of the best long term investments on the NZX.

Could I please ask where you get the forward PE from? On the NZX site I see a PE of 6.85 but I am guessing this is a historical PE?

[percy]

He's got his Percy portfolio nowdays.

You next.?....lol.


ps.Please don't do it.ST would be too boring without your exciting portfolio commentaries.!

[James108]

If the new sales are weighted towards end of year, what happened to the approx. 70 unit difference between 450 builds last year and the 380 sold?

These units sitting there unsold? Has supply outpaced demand as some people predicted would happen in Auckland specifically?

[trader_jackson]

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/SUM/316459/277329.pdf

Best not to get caught up in one particular quarters numbers. This is a long term thing and the forward PE at 16 and their track record of growth suggests this is one of the best long term investments on the NZX.

Hasn't it been quite a few quarters now that have been arguably been a bit sub par?
I see they also reaffirmed no growth in build rate from last year as well.
No worries - onward and upward.... doesn't seem to impact profit growth yet...

[winner69]

Something not quite right with the recent numbers

Lot of divergence between what Julian says (I won't say hype) and reality

New sales numbers have been in decline for 4 quarters now and back to the level they were in the June 16 quarter

Beginning to think that without booming property prices (that have driven the recent 40% plus earnings growth) earnings growth might be a less subdued than we hope

At least still selling 650/700 units a year so will make heaps ...but not heaps more than last year I fear

Just how I see it from looking at the cold hard facts

How sales have been trending ...hmm

[winner69]

Hope the share price doesn't follow the new sales line

[couta1]

Hope the share price doesn't follow the new sales line Reversion to the mean mate.

[couta1]

You next.?....lol.


ps.Please don't do it.ST would be too boring without your exciting portfolio commentaries.! Heaven forbid Percy, we couldn't have that.PS-95% of my portfolio is in 3 shares.

[winner69]

Reversion to the mean mate.

Ha ha but could be true

The whole market has moved from a trend-following regime to a mean-reverting regime so SUM might follow suit

[percy]

Heaven forbid Percy, we couldn't have that.PS-95% of my portfolio is in 3 shares.

Great seeing great investment advice being put into practice,as advised by;
Get-Rich tips from The Gnomes of Zurich,
and the book by Mohnish Pabrai "The Dhando Investor.".

[Beagle]

Its just one quarter guys, I don't make long term investment decisions on one quarters result. Learned that lesson the hard way.
Care units are obviously harder and longer sell, said as much in the announcement for those who took notice.
Re-sales will be on higher margins due to much higher embedded value, that's what will drive profit growth this year.
Yes, we can all learn from others. Learning to display some of Percy's patience...all the proof you need that old dog's can learn new tricks :)

[Filthy]

agree, don't think it will hurt long-term prospects at all.

likely to see mid-6's in the interim, as we look to settle back into a trading range before another leg up

sales data was not as good as I had hoped.

[TFA]

I find it irritating when companies highlight favourable comparisons and hide or downplay unfavourable comparisons.

For Q1 last year SUM published the fact that new units were up by 41% on the previous year whereas this year there is no comment to say the figures are 30% down on last year

[Beagle]

Could I please ask where you get the forward PE from? On the NZX site I see a PE of 6.85 but I am guessing this is a historical PE?

Please review the last 20 pages or so of this thread, its all been clearly articulated already.

[winner69]

agree, don't think it will hurt long-term prospects at all.

likely to see mid-6's in the interim, as we look to settle back into a trading range before another leg up

sales data was not as good as I had hoped.

Wouldn’t want them say ‘sales wise this was our lowest quarter since Q116’

[Beagle]

Wouldn’t want them say ‘sales wise this was our lowest quarter since Q116’

SUM will get fixated on one quarters results and draw conclusions about the long term. I've been there and done that and it cost me plenty.
That won't stop SUM people needing the learn the lesson first hand for themselves. This one is definitely in my "Percy Patience Portfolio"

[oldtech]

Please review the last 20 pages or so of this thread, its all been clearly articulated already.

Thank you Beagle, I will go a-hunting. I have been following this thread for some time but I clearly missed that so my apologies.

[BlackPeter]

Wouldn’t want them say ‘sales wise this was our lowest quarter since Q116’

And to be fair, this would not be appropriate either. If I look at the running total (12 month window), than they sold 654 units over the last 12 months which is above the median sales number for the last 10 quarters (642.5 units in a 12 months period).

Considering as well that the Q1 numbers normally appear to be lower (but for Q1-2017, which was exceptional) and that they said that they expect in the second half for more units to come for sale (they always do) do I not think that there is any reason to worry.

As long as Rymans 15% CAGR is seen as "best in class" can I live with SUM's backward CAGR of 20% (forward CAGR 17.7% - still better than Ryman);

[Beagle]

Thank you Beagle, I will go a-hunting. I have been following this thread for some time but I clearly missed that so my apologies.
Thanks for taking that so well mate and sorry I don't have the time to reiterate my thinking again. Can I suggest you have a look at my posts shortly after the annual result release in very late February. Somewhere in there I gave my reasons for underlying profit forecast of $100m this year which is 44.5 cps and a forward PE of 15.5. Happy to stick with that forecast at this stage. You need to garner an understanding of the difference between underlying profit and reported profit (international financial reporting standards, IFRS) which has been discussed in detail before too.
Happy hunting :)

Good post BP.

[winner69]

And to be fair, this would not be appropriate either. If I look at the running total (12 month window), than they sold 654 units over the last 12 months which is above the median sales number for the last 10 quarters (642.5 units in a 12 months period).

Considering as well that the Q1 numbers normally appear to be lower (but for Q1-2017, which was exceptional) and that they said that they expect in the second half for more units to come for sale (they always do) do I not think that there is any reason to worry.

As long as Rymans 15% CAGR is seen as "best in class" can I live with SUM's backward CAGR of 20% (forward CAGR 17.7% - still better than Ryman);

I still like the chart I posted earlier .. hard not to say trending down of late

[oldtech]

Thanks for taking that so well mate and sorry I don't have the time to reiterate my thinking again. Can I suggest you have a look at my posts shortly after the annual result release in very late February. Somewhere in there I gave my reasons for underlying profit forecast of $100m this year which is 44.5 cps and a forward PE of 15.5. Happy to stick with that forecast at this stage. You need to garner an understanding of the difference between underlying profit and reported profit (international financial reporting standards, IFRS) which has been discussed in detail before too.
Happy hunting :)

Good post BP.

All good, thank you for the additional info and suggestions! :t_up:

[BobbyMorocco]

I know one quarter's disappointing results is not the end of the world but I'm struggling to put a positive spin on these latest sales figures.

At the end of 2017 we were expecting SUM to have delivered and sold 450 new units for the year. They were only able to sell 382 of them, meaning there were 68 left over to sell this year. I would have then expected that the 1st quarter sales numbers to be significantly higher than what they are. They've only sold 68 new units. The same new units that we expected them to sell last year?

68 new units sold is less than have managed to sell in any of the past 8 quarters. They sold 414 new units in FY16 and 382 in FY17. Now they've started the year selling 68? This is not growth! They say sales will pick up over the course of the year and yes they certainly need to if they are going to sell 400+ new units this year.

House/unit prices also look as if they are not going to increase in value as much this year as they have done over the past few years, so if they don't increase the number of units they are selling then where is this growth going to come from?

45-50% growth in underlying profit over the past six years has certainly been nice, but surely some of that has been fueled by the huge increase in house prices we have seen over the same time frame. Now I don't think that sort of growth can continue. I was expecting underlying profit to be around 100m for the year, but these figures have me wondering if that needs to be adjusted downwards a touch..... I'm off to crunch some numbers.

[winner69]

I know one quarter's disappointing results is not the end of the world but I'm struggling to put a positive spin on these latest sales figures.

At the end of 2017 we were expecting SUM to have delivered and sold 450 new units for the year. They were only able to sell 382 of them, meaning there were 68 left over to sell this year. I would have then expected that the 1st quarter sales numbers to be significantly higher than what they are. They've only sold 68 new units. The same new units that we expected them to sell last year?

68 new units sold is less than have managed to sell in any of the past 8 quarters. They sold 414 new units in FY16 and 382 in FY17. Now they've started the year selling 68? This is not growth! They say sales will pick up over the course of the year and yes they certainly need to if they are going to sell 400+ new units this year.

House/unit prices also look as if they are not going to increase in value as much this year as they have done over the past few years, so if they don't increase the number of units they are selling then where is this growth going to come from?

45-50% growth in underlying profit over the past six years has certainly been nice, but surely some of that has been fueled by the huge increase in house prices we have seen over the same time frame. Now I don't think that sort of growth can continue. I was expecting underlying profit to be around 100m for the year, but these figures have me wondering if that needs to be adjusted downwards a touch..... I'm off to crunch some numbers.

I think they may have reached new build capacity at around the 350/400. This does mean that the planned building program will just longer = good solid profits for many years to come from new builds

The huge increase in property prices over the last few years has to a large degree still to be realised ...the embedded value beagle talks about. That benefit will come out in the next few years as resale’s are made - they’ll be making heaps more in selling an unit this year than last year. It’s that which will underpin ‘earnings growth’ even if sales increase that much.

[BlackPeter]

I still like the chart I posted earlier .. hard not to say trending down of late

Depends on your definition of a downtrend ....

Just borrowed your graph so people don't need to search for the original post:

9604

Just looking at your new sales - if this is not an uptrend, than I don't know what an uptrend is - I do see higher lows and higher highs. I am sure you realize that trends never run in straight lines and neither in exponential curves ... and the SUM sales trend is no exception.

I do see constant growth in "new" sales overlaid by a roughly 2 year cycle (would be interesting to understand where this is coming from). Following this pattern - Q1-2018 is (following 1Q16 and 1Q14 and 4Q11) supposed to be another local minimum.

Obviously - if the weakness continues into the coming quarters (are we running out of old people?), than sure - we would have a trend change, but at this stage I see them quite on target ;);

As well - if you add the new sales and the resales (and this is their real income, not the new sales alone), than the graph looks still more uplifting ... call that a breather if you like - but a downtrend?

9605

[winner69]

BP ...I did say trending down ‘of late’ and not just for one quarter and yes long term still trending up ....but then so were Metro Glass profits eh

[winner69]

SUM will still make about $100m underlying earnings in F18

No worries there

[jimmybuffett]

are we running out of old people?

LOL, not a question I thought I would ever hear asked.

[Beagle]

They built a lot of care suites in the last quarter of 2017, Ellerslie it was a block of about 70, if I remember correctly.
As they've outlined in the quarterly sales result these can take longer to sell as people generally move into a supported living care suite when the need arises, its generally not a lifestyle choice they make.

I don't think the sky is falling just because they built a lot of care suites that might take longer than independent living units to sell. Just means their holding costs might be a little higher.
Their average cost of funds is very low so I don't expect any material impact on underlying profit it if takes a few quarters to clear stock.

At times like this I tend to reflect on the fact that the evolution of a companies abilities is not a five minute process. It takes a process over many years whereby they learn from past mistakes and success's. The undisputed fact is that they have grown underlying earnings at a phenomenal pace in their first six years of operation which shown they've learned a lot.
It shouldn't come as a surprise to anyone that this year's growth in underlying profit will probably be less than last year.

As for the real estate market...there's always prophets of doom saying the boom is coming to an end. We've had that debate plenty of times on this thread and others.
The FACTS however are that on a national basis the market continues to show strong growth with latest figures out yesterday showing a national average increase of 7% for the year to March 31 2018.

Business as usual...

[percy]

Great businesses have poor even terrible years.[I am thinking MFT]
Poor businesses can have good years.{FBU would be a good example].
As serious investors we must work out which is which.
In my opinion SUM is an excellent business.

[Beagle]

Great businesses have poor even terrible years.[I am thinking MFT]
Poor businesses can have good years.{FBU would be a good example].
As serious investors we must work out which is which.
In my opinion SUM is an excellent business.

Good point Percy and agree 100% but this is just one quarter so no need whatsoever for any soul searching at this stage. SUM's worst year, if you can call it that was when they grew underlying earnings by 10% and the average is about 45%. I'm expecting 20-25% underlying earnings growth this year, (which is far from shabby). Growth will be driven mainly by increased resale level's at significantly higher level's of profit per unit based on about $150K per unit embedded value v $117K per unit last year, (both figures from memory).

[jimmybuffett]

Just saw these stats on TVNZ...in 2018 NZ will have 747,900 people over 65, but by 2038 that number becomes 1,303,400. Play the long game.

[tuaman]

Wow. is this the end of the reitrement villages business at least 3years?
What happen if the business refuse the govt proposal? or is that possible at all?
As an immigrant, I am not used to socialist govt, so just asking.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/102872272/affordable-housing-push-may-extend-to-retirement-village-developments

[Leftfield]

Wow. is this the end of the reitrement villages business at least 3years?
What happen if the business refuse the govt proposal? or is that possible at all?
As an immigrant, I am not used to socialist govt, so just asking.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/102872272/affordable-housing-push-may-extend-to-retirement-village-developments

Very unlikely to be adopted in this simplistic form IMHO. MP's often float ideas to test support. I would be confident that if retirement companies are 'required' to provide 'social housing' then there would need to be some compensation and incentives provided.

[horus1]

They have to be careful. The tax rates are very low and they are a sitter to be caught in any changes to the tax system and that will be political.

[Beagle]

Apartments at many of SUM's villages start at around $400K.

[Food4Thought]

The up and coming bulge of people 65+ is a situation that governments (here and in other countries) have not had in the past. They can't forecast what will happen, there are many unknowns. What is known is that there will be a real big stress on the accommodation for the wiser population into retirement, aged care etc, and that won't only happen in New Zealand. There are ways the government could implicate the operations for SUM and others, yet I believe they will work together with operators to sort out any short comings. Its exciting to be a part of this as a shareholder after having missed a few boats in the past. Demand versus supply. As shareholders we also have the opportunity to help shape the companies and make decisions that could perhaps mean a more steady return, versus fluctuating expectations. Slow, steady, long term has worked for so many business operators in the past. Exciting to see this unravel.

[winner69]

Beagle hasn’t posted for over 24 hours

Hope the big Auckland storm hasn’t effected him and his family too much ...and that his absence is only due to him not having any power and nothing worse than that

[JeremyALD]

Beagle hasn’t posted for over 24 hours

Hope the big Auckland storm hasn’t effected him and his family too much ...and that his absence is only due to him not having any power and nothing worse than that

Yes I was waiting for his comments on the pushpay result!

[LAC]

Been very quite on ST without Beagle.....

[couta1]

Been very quite on ST without Beagle..... Beagle is stuck in his kennel without power.

[RTM]

Beagle is stuck in his kennel without power.

Quiet.....? I would describe it as peaceful.

[Filthy]

Beagle is stuck in his kennel without power.

.....more likely that he's 'down the pub' spending SUM of his profits on Tui's ;)

[winner69]

.....more likely that he's 'down the pub' spending SUM of his profits on Tui's ;)

....no, flew Jetstar to some civilised place (not saying Auckland is some 3rd world uncivilised city)

[Beagle]

....no, flew Jetstar to some civilised place (not saying Auckland is some 3rd world uncivilised city)

Its felt like it the last 3 nights ! Only got power back this morning just after 9.00 a.m. More than 60 hours without power was an interesting endurance challenge and made for a very grumpy Beagle.

[BlackPeter]

Its felt like it the last 3 nights ! Only got power back this morning just after 9.00 a.m. More than 60 hours without power was an interesting endurance challenge and made for a very grumpy Beagle.

Welcome back - glad it was just the unreliable Auckland power supply silencing you for three long days ;); Hope you and your family are all o.k - and no property damage (but probably a thawed up freezer).

For me it was the Canterbury earth quakes convincing me at the time that a backup generator could be a good idea in a country with a quite "thin" electricity network with little redundancy, and it was quite useful for various spring and winter storms since than. Maybe its now time for Auckland to invest into this technology.

[Gonzo]

no sweat in Invers, all lines are underground

[minimoke]

Its felt like it the last 3 nights ! Only got power back this morning just after 9.00 a.m. More than 60 hours without power was an interesting endurance challenge and made for a very grumpy Beagle.That should put an end to any thoughts of an EV.

[Beagle]

That should put an end to any thoughts of an EV.

Yeap, I really don't see how the existing lines and stretched load demands on transformers around the streets, (one blew up around here recently and went off like a bomb) not to forget a very very tight supply-demand situation for the gentailiers will cope. SUM thing tells me the SUM's simply don't add up.
On the other hand its nice to see SUM back over $7 and the SUM's definitely add up for this pedigree pooch on a forward PE of just 15.5 with an average historical growth rate of 45% per annum.

During my lengthy enforced stint in Siberia, (not for the usual reason :lol:), I got to figuring that one simply invests long term in companies that will grow strongly long term and investing becomes a no brainer with or without power.

[jimmybuffett]

Welcome back - glad it was just the unreliable Auckland power supply silencing you for three long days ;); Hope you and your family are all o.k - and no property damage (but probably a thawed up freezer).

For me it was the Canterbury earth quakes convincing me at the time that a backup generator could be a good idea in a country with a quite "thin" electricity network with little redundancy, and it was quite useful for various spring and winter storms since than. Maybe its now time for Auckland to invest into this technology.

Maybe time for Hirepool to list again :)

[cymonger]

Yeap, I really don't see how the existing lines and stretched load demands on transformers around the streets, (one blew up around here recently and went off like a bomb) not to forget a very very tight supply-demand situation for the gentailiers will cope. SUM thing tells me the SUM's simply don't add up.
On the other hand its nice to see SUM back over $7 and the SUM's definitely add up for this pedigree pooch on a forward PE of just 15.5 with an average historical growth rate of 45% per annum.

During my lengthy enforced stint in Siberia, (not for the usual reason :lol:), I got to figuring that one simply invests long term in companies that will grow strongly long term and investing becomes a no brainer with or without power.


Yep. recently had my "come to jesus" moment with "come to jesus' company Pushpay. Why risk investing in a company with smoke and mirrors numbers and such high risk? SUM, THL, etc. from now on.

it's like getting paid to park your car....

[minimoke]

Good to see SUM doing its bit to ease the housing crisis. Just bought some land in Napier for 320 new affordable homes all within a mobility scooter ride to the CBD.

[Beagle]

Good to see SUM doing its bit to ease the housing crisis. Just bought some land in Napier for 320 new affordable homes all within a mobility scooter ride to the CBD.

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/316844

LOL I took notice of the mobility scooter proximity too :) Nice warm climate down there too and far enough away from the kids so we don't get hounded too often by them...might be a great place to retire in due course.

[silu]

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/316844

LOL I took notice of the mobility scooter proximity too :) Nice warm climate down there too and far enough away from the kids so we don't get hounded too often by them...might be a great place to retire in due course.

I may still have a couple of decades until retirement but I could see myself in a Summerset unit in this part of the country.

[percy]

Good to see SUM doing its bit to ease the housing crisis. Just bought some land in Napier for 320 new affordable homes all within a mobility scooter ride to the CBD.

And the beach.!

[whome]

..and only a short mobility scooter ride to vineyards and cafes!!!

[Beagle]

..and only a short mobility scooter ride to vineyards and cafes!!!

Who needs an electric car :)

[steveb]

..and only a short mobility scooter ride to vineyards and cafes!!!
What do you get for riding a mobility scooter whilst intoxicated?

[percy]

What do you get for riding a mobility scooter whilst intoxicated?

No pudding for a week.

[Ggcc]

And the beach.!
Have you seen the beach there? It’s a nice view, just unsafe to swim

[percy]

Have you seen the beach there? It’s a nice view, just unsafe to swim

I expect the village will have a pool,so no need to swim in the ocean,just enjoy the sea outlook from your mobility scooter.

[Ggcc]

I expect the village will have a pool,so no need to swim in the ocean,just enjoy the sea outlook from your mobility scooter.
Love it haha

[winner69]

Median house price for Msrch up on February ....across the country

All good news for Summerset et al .......sale proceeds probably more than the ‘embedded’ value

Beagles $100m forecast looking even more certain I reckon

https://www.reinz.co.nz/Media/Default/Statistic%20Documents/2018/Residential/March/REINZ%20Monthly%20Property%20Report%20-%20March%202018.pdf

[Beagle]

It'll be good to attend next weeks annual meeting and see if I can get some more colour from Julian Cook regarding current year prospects and have a chat about a couple of other matters. $100m gives 44.5 cps underlying for FY18 and at $7.05 puts them on a forward PE of 15.8. Market average is about 20. I'm maintaining my 12 month forward $9.40 price target.

[winner69]

It'll be good to attend next weeks annual meeting and see if I can get some more colour from Julian Cook regarding current year prospects and have a chat about a couple of other matters. $100m gives 44.5 cps underlying for FY18 and at $7.05 puts them on a forward PE of 15.8. Market average is about 20. I'm maintaining my 12 month forward $9.40 price target.

Should be interesting.

Besides getting a bit more colour around this year’s prospects you should broach the subject of optionality with him / get a feel for the growth trajectory over the next few years / find out what price prospects are like in the current landscape.

No doubt he will cover off brand metrics and such things in his presentation

Have fun.

[Beagle]

I will be giving Julian a bit of a wind up about fixed fees for life, (I have already raised this with him before). Old folks love fixed fees for life because they know their super gets inflation adjusted every year which gives them heaps of optionality with the extra superannuation they get every time it goes up. I still believe this fixed fee for life thing is a hugely valuable marketing tool and one it appears they could make good use of in regard to selling their care suites.

[value_investor]

It'll be good to attend next weeks annual meeting and see if I can get some more colour from Julian Cook regarding current year prospects and have a chat about a couple of other matters. $100m gives 44.5 cps underlying for FY18 and at $7.05 puts them on a forward PE of 15.8. Market average is about 20. I'm maintaining my 12 month forward $9.40 price target.

That's around where I would put mine although not as aggressive on the pricing. Good luck at the meeting, maybe give them a poke about those 1Q metrics!

[artemis]

I'd be interested to know if there has been an approach from govt on mandatory affordability units.

[minimoke]

I'd be interested to know if there has been an approach from govt on mandatory affordability units.There should be no need. People moving into retirement villages will already have a Home so can afford to move into the village. Govt should look at subsidising the aged into a Village so stock is released down the housing chain.

[Food4Thought]

What do you get for riding a mobility scooter whilst intoxicated?

This is hilarious. It's rampant already. Not sure what the fines are though. Probably a good industry to start to specialise in if you are a lawyer. Also options for sober riders and maybe a VW Caddy for sober pick ups... I see potential

[iceman]

I'd be interested to know if there has been an approach from govt on mandatory affordability units.

Apparently the Minister for Seniors has been meeting with retirement village companies to discuss this. Would be interesting to hear more about the detail of those discussions

[percy]

I'd be interested to know if there has been an approach from govt on mandatory affordability units.

I have grave doubts about affordable units.
Recently a retired ChCh couple brought a 2 bedroom unit, in a small new development.Downsized for their retirement.The developer then sold some units to Housing NZ, who put in "social misfits".Swearing,fights,abuse is the norm from these people.The value of their unit has decreased,and is really unsaleable.
I know the reason I will buy a retirement village unit is for security and safety.Last neighbour I would want is a "social misfit" in an affordable unit.
Should the Govt want affordable retirement units, they are best to build them themselves,and remember the present retirement village models are providing NZ retirees with plenty of choice,and saving the Govt having to provide them.
Where would the Govt be without ARV, OCA,MET,RYM and SUM.?

[iceman]

I have grave doubts about affordable units.
Recently a retired ChCh couple brought a 2 bedroom unit, in a small new development.Downsized for their retirement.The developer then sold some units to Housing NZ, who put in "social misfits".Swearing,fights,abuse is the norm from these people.
I know the reason I will buy a retirement village is for security and safety.Last neighbour I would want is a "social misfit" in an affordable unit.
Should the Govt want affordable retirement units, they are best to build them themselves,and remember the present retirement village models are providing NZ retirees with plenty of choice,and saving the Govt having to provide them.
Where would the Govt be without ARV, OCA,MET,RYM and SUM.?

Totally agree Percy and that's why I hope they'll tell the Minister in no uncertain terms they are not interested in this

[artemis]

I have grave doubts about affordable units.
Recently a retired ChCh couple brought a 2 bedroom unit, in a small new development.Downsized for their retirement.The developer then sold some units to Housing NZ, who put in "social misfits".Swearing,fights,abuse is the norm from these people.
I know the reason I will buy a retirement village is for security and safety.Last neighbour I would want is a "social misfit" in an affordable unit.
Should the Govt want affordable retirement units, they are best to build them themselves,and remember the present retirement village models are providing NZ retirees with plenty of choice,and saving the Govt having to provide them.
Where would the Govt be without ARV, OCA,MET,RYM and SUM.?

Agree, and I have similar doubt about the Unitec development with (initially) 20% social housing. Which % could rise a lot if there are not enough sales and developers have to be paid out. Vicious circle right there.

Social housing tenants have more than average issues.

[minimoke]

Agree, and I have similar doubt about the Unitec development with (initially) 20% social housing. Which % could rise a lot if there are not enough sales and developers have to be paid out. Vicious circle right there.

Social housing tenants have more than average issues.
The advantage with providing social housing for social misfits is that it devalues neighbouring properties which make them affordable.

[mondograss]

You guys have actually been to Mt Albert right? It's not what you'd call a wealthy area.

[mfd]

Agree, and I have similar doubt about the Unitec development with (initially) 20% social housing. Which % could rise a lot if there are not enough sales and developers have to be paid out. Vicious circle right there.

Social housing tenants have more than average issues.

Mixed developments are not unusual in the UK, for example my parent's street is detached 3-4 bed houses and one street over is blocks of council flats. They've been there over 30 years without issue.

[Beagle]

Pretty sad if you've got into your late seventies and can't put $400K together from the sale of a home or other investments to afford a modest unit in one of SUM's villages.
SUM and other retirement village operators already provide some very reasonably priced retirement options.
If the Government want to lower the bar even further they should make their own alternative arrangements in my opinion.

[dobby41]

SUM and other retirement village operators already provide some very reasonably priced retirement options.
If the Government want to lower the bar even further they should make their own alternative arrangements in my opinion.

I believe that prices are set at around the average for the area (ie they aren't cost +) so there will be a large number of people who, when they sell their house, wouldn't be able to afford a village unit.

[BlackPeter]

I believe that prices are set at around the average for the area (ie they aren't cost +) so there will be a large number of people who, when they sell their house, wouldn't be able to afford a village unit.

What an amazing opportunity than for our Labor government to demonstrate that they can build cheaper units and make money with it. They even could reduce the overall tax burden thanks to the fat profits they would make building cheaper houses and units.

Just wondering why they didn't started yet? Ah right, they know everything better but can't do anything ... talk is cheap.

[Beagle]

I believe that prices are set at around the average for the area (ie they aren't cost +) so there will be a large number of people who, when they sell their house, wouldn't be able to afford a village unit.

Summerset don't have a fixed pricing formula for setting prices but based on my knowledge of the company I can tell you that their average unit price is approximately 75% of the surrounding area and this is roughly how RYM price their units as well. Obviously if you want a premium waterfront 3 bedroom home in Hobsonville Auckland for instance you'll need to have made provision for that with your retirement planning or have sold down a similar premium home. Most of their villages contain a wide variety of living options with prices for a standard one bedroom apartment being perhaps as little as 50% of your average home in that suburb whereas in the above example the waterfront home might be as much as 150% of the average for the suburb.

People moving into a SUM village typically free-up a significant amount of capital from the sale of their home to enjoy in their retirement years and work on their bucket list. This freeing up of capital is one of the most attractive aspects to moving into a village.

[minimoke]

I believe that prices are set at around the average for the area (ie they aren't cost +) so there will be a large number of people who, when they sell their house, wouldn't be able to afford a village unit.
Possibly because they get a whole lot more in a retirement village house then they might in an average house in a surrounding area.

This is what you get in one of SUMs places not far from me.

"Alpine View Lifestyle Village is designed to look like a new residential subdivision not a traditional retirement village which means all our houses are architecturally designed, distinct, different and standalone. They have been discretely designed for sun and privacy.



There are different architectural features for our Independent living houses and if you are in early and purchase the occupational rights while the house is under construction, then you can have a choice as to the configuration.


The house sizes range from 124m2 to 165m2 and feature two or three double bedrooms with walk -in wardrobes, (single or double) garage, a tiled ensuite, a visitor’s toilet, and a tiled floor in both the entrance and kitchen.


There are French doors in both the living and dining areas – providing indoor/outdoor living and a 2.7-metre-high ceiling height provides each room with a greater sense of space and light.


The kitchen features stainless steel appliances, including: a wall oven, induction cook top, waste disposal unit and dishwasher drawer.


For energy saving the houses have solar heating, LED lighting, double glazing and tinted windows, as well as a heat pump/air conditioning unit and under floor heating in the bathroom."

Plus

"At the heart of the village is Alpine View’s Lodge. Here you can take in a movie at the Roxy Movie Theatre, watch the rugby in the Stag’s Head Bar, dine in the Oxford Restaurant, catch up with friends in Ginger’s Café, enjoy the heated pool, workout in the gym or participate in one of the many regular events organised by the activities coordinators.


Also within the lodge is a hair salon, medical centre, chapel and library."

[Beagle]

Sounds really, really nice minimoke. Julian Cook made the point at last year's annual meeting, (discussed after the meeting) that SUM's units are typically significantly larger than their competition.

[winner69]

More importantly whats going to happen to the share price this week

Irrespective of whats been discussed Summerset et all will continue to build new villages and make heaps of money for shareholders

No worries ...you guys think too much

[dobby41]

Most of their villages contain a wide variety of living options with prices for a standard one bedroom apartment being perhaps as little as 50% of your average home in that suburb whereas in the above example the waterfront home might be as much as 150% of the average for the suburb.

People moving into a SUM village typically free-up a significant amount of capital from the sale of their home to enjoy in their retirement years and work on their bucket list. This freeing up of capital is one of the most attractive aspects to moving into a village.

As little as 50% of the average house in the suburb.
That means as little as 50% of the people probably can't afford them as their house will be worth less than the average. (by definition).

People who do move typically release a lot of capital because those who wouldn't don't move (can't afford to).

[dobby41]

Possibly because they get a whole lot more in a retirement village house then they might in an average house in a surrounding area.

I'm not sure that the Alpine View Lifestyle Village is 'typical'.
I couldn't see any pricing - are they priced at the 'average' for the area?

[couta1]

More importantly whats going to happen to the share price this week

Irrespective of whats been discussed Summerset et all will continue to build new villages and make heaps of money for shareholders

No worries ...you guys think too much Probably fully priced mate until Ryman price moves near $13 aye. Agree re thinking too much, Gutometer a far better investing tool than an overactive brain.

[minimoke]

I'm not sure that the Alpine View Lifestyle Village is 'typical'.
I couldn't see any pricing - are they priced at the 'average' for the area?
I cant comment on whether this is typical or not - All I am concerned about is that SUM are meeting market demand. (if this is what they have planned form Napier I might need to look at moving)

Also no idea of price. Waitikiri has some quite posh housing nearby. But also north New Brighton which isn't so flash. And Marshland (which is now called Prestons for obvious reasons) and not for from where I shovelled truck loads of silt post EQ's

[macduffy]

As little as 50% of the average house in the suburb.
That means as little as 50% of the people probably can't afford them as their house will be worth less than the average. (by definition).

People who do move typically release a lot of capital because those who wouldn't don't move (can't afford to).

i think that Beagle meant that the cost of a one bedroom unit was about 50% of the average sale price of housing in the area, not the 50% average sale price!
;)

[dobby41]

i think that Beagle meant that the cost of a one bedroom unit was about 50% of the average sale price of housing in the area, not the 50% average sale price!
;)

Good point - I'm not sure that is true

[Beagle]

As little as 50% of the average house in the suburb.
That means as little as 50% of the people probably can't afford them as their house will be worth less than the average. (by definition).

People who do move typically release a lot of capital because those who wouldn't don't move (can't afford to).

I an not sure you get it but I will give up trying to explain it after this post. SUM are not trying to be all things to all people. If they were I probably wouldn't want to retire into one of their villages for the reasons Percy outlined. I visited the Hobsonville village last year and was very impressed with the very high caliber of the facilities and the very nice people I met there. Not everyone can afford to retire there, that's a given but its not SUM's job to fix social problems.

[percy]

Possibly because they get a whole lot more in a retirement village house then they might in an average house in a surrounding area.

This is what you get in one of SUMs places not far from me.

"Alpine View Lifestyle Village is designed to look like a new residential subdivision not a traditional retirement village which means all our houses are architecturally designed, distinct, different and standalone. They have been discretely designed for sun and privacy.



There are different architectural features for our Independent living houses and if you are in early and purchase the occupational rights while the house is under construction, then you can have a choice as to the configuration.


The house sizes range from 124m2 to 165m2 and feature two or three double bedrooms with walk -in wardrobes, (single or double) garage, a tiled ensuite, a visitor’s toilet, and a tiled floor in both the entrance and kitchen.


There are French doors in both the living and dining areas – providing indoor/outdoor living and a 2.7-metre-high ceiling height provides each room with a greater sense of space and light.


The kitchen features stainless steel appliances, including: a wall oven, induction cook top, waste disposal unit and dishwasher drawer.


For energy saving the houses have solar heating, LED lighting, double glazing and tinted windows, as well as a heat pump/air conditioning unit and under floor heating in the bathroom."

Plus

"At the heart of the village is Alpine View’s Lodge. Here you can take in a movie at the Roxy Movie Theatre, watch the rugby in the Stag’s Head Bar, dine in the Oxford Restaurant, catch up with friends in Ginger’s Café, enjoy the heated pool, workout in the gym or participate in one of the many regular events organised by the activities coordinators.


Also within the lodge is a hair salon, medical centre, chapel and library."


Interesting seeing Alpine View raising the standards.
Not surprising, as the co-founder of the original retirement village standard raiser RYM,John Ryder, is not only a director of Alpine Village but also heavily invested in it.
Minimoke .A lot of guys who grew up in New Brighton became very successful tradesmen,so like to live in the area they grew up in.

[couta1]

Good point - I'm not sure that is true Actually it is, in a lot of cases.

[dobby41]

SUM's job to fix social problems.

And I think that is the key.
The idea of having 'affordable' units seems kind of silly really.
If the Govt wants a cheaper village then maybe they should build one (or 20) to suit.

[Beagle]

And I think that is the key.
The idea of having 'affordable' units seems kind of silly really.
If the Govt wants a cheaper village then maybe they should build one (or 20) to suit.

I am sure Jascinda will come up with some grand scheme and yet another form of tax or tax increase to fund it, after the usual appointment of committee's and working groups of course !

[minimoke]

Minimoke .A lot of guys who grew up in New Brighton became very successful tradesmen,so like to live in the area they grew up in.
Percy - my comment was a reflection on the housing (and thus the value relative to Alpine Views) - not the people

[Ggcc]

I am sure Jascinda will come up with some grand scheme and yet another form of tax or tax increase to fund it, after the usual appointment of committee's and working groups of course !
Those dirty rich people can pay for it right...... hand me another tui please

[LAC]

Anyone attending the AGM? Can you please keep us updated on the Q's and A's at the end

[dabsman]

I am sure Jascinda will come up with some grand scheme and yet another form of tax or tax increase to fund it, after the usual appointment of committee's and working groups of course !

The solution is easy for Taxinta - just ban aging

[percy]

The agm presentations read very well.

[Beagle]

Good solid feel to the outlook. Had a good chat with Julian Cook, Scott Scoullar CFO, and Directors Anne Urlwin and Dr Andrew Wong after the meeting. I have a good sense that this is an excellent company with a very solid pathway of growth in the years ahead. No concerns to report. I am sticking with my forecast of $100m underlying earnings this year, 44.5 cps. Forward PE of approx. 15.5 seems very reasonable considering their track record of growth and the strength and integrity of their leadership team. Couldn't be happier to hold a good sized stake in SUM long term.

http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/8e034008/summerset-opens-melbourne-office-as-it-looks-to-australia-for-growth.html?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Summerset%20opens%20Melbourne%20offic e%20as%20it%20looks%20to%20Australia%20for%20growt h&utm_content=Summerset%20opens%20Melbourne%20office %20as%20it%20looks%20to%20Australia%20for%20growth +CID_bdfa0c6b8c7fb87b8eaaaecbef45fe9f&utm_source=Email%20marketing%20software&utm_term=httpwwwsharechatconzarticle8e034008summer set-opens-melbourne-office-as-it-looks-to-australia-for-growthhtml

Good summary of what was said at the meeting.

[RTM]

The solution is easy for Taxinta - just ban aging

Are u thinking about an injection at 65’ish?
Yikes....very close.:scared:

[allfromacell]

The relatively slow new build sales were also touched on by Rob who said the second quarter is tracking at around the same pace as the first, he doesn't expect this year to be as good as the last one. He mentioned it being harder to sell a lot of the current inventory as yes the units are complete however the villages are still half under construction but has confidence they'll have no issue selling in-time.

2-3% of the total units was quoted as currently unoccupied and up for sale which is a pretty low. Management seems to have everything under control.

[Beagle]

Company was confident of profit growth this year. Early days for Q2 sales, not even through the first month yet. He motioned a lot of changes with sales staff.
Sales pattern changed a bit because of the type of units they're currently building, multi level at Ellerslie and at Hobsonville.
All good, no worries.

[lawson]

Good solid feel to the outlook. Had a good chat with Julian Cook, Scott Scoullar CFO, and Directors Anne Urlwin and Dr Andrew Wong after the meeting. I have a good sense that this is an excellent company with a very solid pathway of growth in the years ahead. No concerns to report. I am sticking with my forecast of $100m underlying earnings this year, 44.5 cps. Forward PE of approx. 15.5 seems very reasonable considering their track record of growth and the strength and integrity of their leadership team. Couldn't be happier to hold a good sized stake in SUM long term.

http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/8e034008/summerset-opens-melbourne-office-as-it-looks-to-australia-for-growth.html?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Summerset%20opens%20Melbourne%20offic e%20as%20it%20looks%20to%20Australia%20for%20growt h&utm_content=Summerset%20opens%20Melbourne%20office %20as%20it%20looks%20to%20Australia%20for%20growth +CID_bdfa0c6b8c7fb87b8eaaaecbef45fe9f&utm_source=Email%20marketing%20software&utm_term=httpwwwsharechatconzarticle8e034008summer set-opens-melbourne-office-as-it-looks-to-australia-for-growthhtml

Good summary of what was said at the meeting.

Thanks for the feedback as I wasn't able to attend always interesting to hear from those who did.

[iceman]

Good solid feel to the outlook. Had a good chat with Julian Cook, Scott Scoullar CFO, and Directors Anne Urlwin and Dr Andrew Wong after the meeting. I have a good sense that this is an excellent company with a very solid pathway of growth in the years ahead. No concerns to report. I am sticking with my forecast of $100m underlying earnings this year, 44.5 cps. Forward PE of approx. 15.5 seems very reasonable considering their track record of growth and the strength and integrity of their leadership team. Couldn't be happier to hold a good sized stake in SUM long term.

http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/8e034008/summerset-opens-melbourne-office-as-it-looks-to-australia-for-growth.html?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Summerset%20opens%20Melbourne%20offic e%20as%20it%20looks%20to%20Australia%20for%20growt h&utm_content=Summerset%20opens%20Melbourne%20office %20as%20it%20looks%20to%20Australia%20for%20growth +CID_bdfa0c6b8c7fb87b8eaaaecbef45fe9f&utm_source=Email%20marketing%20software&utm_term=httpwwwsharechatconzarticle8e034008summer set-opens-melbourne-office-as-it-looks-to-australia-for-growthhtml

Good summary of what was said at the meeting.

Thanks for the feedback Beagle and allfromacell. Much appreciated.
This is a great stock to be invested in for the foreseeable future.

[Beagle]

Thanks for the feedback Beagle and allfromacell. Much appreciated.
This is a great stock to be invested in for the foreseeable future.

Missed catching up with you and Couta1 this year.
You know the hound, (who loves his food) was busy gleaning all the info he could when he didn't even get time to get a look in at the refreshments ! That would be a first lol
Very impressed with how carefully they are treading in terms of their proposed expansion into Australia. New Construction risk committee headed by Anne Urlwin who has significant construction expertise. Construction fraud a key risk area they are targeting, (lesson for FBU there !). I tryed getting a gauge from Anne where the development margin might be headed this year but she couldn't shed any light on that and said it depended on market forces and sale prices but did say they were happy with where it was.

Julian seemed a little more upbeat than last year. Dr Andrew Wong a very likeable and charismatic chap, head of Ascot Hospital. Chatted to him a bit about the future direction of age care technology. Sensors on medicine cabinet doors so they know if people are taking their meds or not, moving to full digital healthcare system...sophisticated software programs can manage by exception patient anomalies and concerns.
Scott Scollar a good solid numbers man. He's the engine behind driving decisions around pricing. CFO and deputy CEO. Not a natural charismatic leader though. Hope Julian sticks around for many years to come.
Rob Campbell the consummate Chairman, well supported by a VERY capable board in my opinion. He's getting old though.
Growth will be lower this year than last. I'm sticking with 20-25% growth in underlying profit giving about $100m.
Build rate could ramp up significantly in 2019 or 2020 as they expand here and proceed to expand in to Australia. What's not to like ? Frankly I can't think of anything !

[percy]

Great work.
Thank you for sharing.

[LAC]

Thanks for the updates above from those that attended, great to hear all good from management. My 2nd largest holding at the moment but think by year end will be my largest. These are the ones I place in the drawer n never look at for the next 20years;)

[Ggcc]

Reading the dominion how the Lower Hutt development has cost 50 million more due to neighbours who apposed the scale of the village. It has mentioned that the increase will be passed onto the residents who bought into the upmarket village. Interesting how I always have maintained increasing costs to retirement villages will always mean increasing costs to residents.

[Beagle]

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/103466757/summerset-applies-for-consent-for-150-million-lower-hutt-retirement-village
Link
Just one other comment from the meeting, not sure if it's in the official announcement doc's released to the NZX or not.
Market for hiring construction staff and project managers has changed / improved since the full extent of the FBU fiasco has become clear.
One presumes anyone that's any good want's out.
My thought: I hope SUM are very careful and selective with anyone they hire from FBU.

[Ggcc]

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/103466757/summerset-applies-for-consent-for-150-million-lower-hutt-retirement-village
Link
Just one other comment from the meeting, not sure if it's in the official announcement doc's released to the NZX or not.
Market for hiring construction staff and project managers has changed / improved since the full extent of the FBU fiasco has become clear.
One presumes anyone that's any good want's out.
My thought: I hope SUM are very careful and selective with anyone they hire from FBU.
Thanks for the link beagle

[Food4Thought]

... I'm excited by the position of SUM. A rising tide lifts all boats. Australia is one massive opportunity with much higher retirement expectations by retiries from what I have encountered. Over in Australia generally they earnt more, spend more and want all the trimmings. Can't wait for this development

[Beagle]

... I'm excited by the position of SUM. A rising tide lifts all boats. Australia is one massive opportunity with much higher retirement expectations by retiries from what I have encountered. Over in Australia generally they earnt more, spend more and want all the trimmings. Can't wait for this development

Time to double down on a winning hand perhaps ? Still very very cheap on an underlying earnings forward PE of just 15.5 with their extraordinary track record of 47% average annual compounding earnings growth.

Food for thought. Can anyone name me a single other company on the NZX that has enjoyed six years of average earnings growth at 47% per annum ? (that's regardlesas of PE, doesn't have to be below the average market PE...any PE is okay, just want to know if there's another company I have overlooked ?)
(P.S. That's EPS earnings growth not earnings growth with huge numbers of extra shares issued)

Okay the build rate this year is the same as last year but what about thinking past that ? Where 's the build rate combined on both sides of the Tasman in 2021 ?
800 units per annum ?

[Nasi Goreng]

Hey Beagle, I'm not sure of many others that have had that growth rate besides A2, SML - there may be others, I don't follow all on the NZX. The challenge is always knowing when a company may hit peak growth. I think SUM may be there... there comes a time when the size of a company makes the task of growing at the rate of 40% YOY harder and harder to achieve.

The good news is that the forward PE is just 15.5 ( I will rely on your maths ). So even if they grow at just 10% it would appear to me like its currently a bargain.

For a 20 year investment, keeping out a mindful watch for any disasters, it should be a great long termer. Maybe in 20 years, my dividends may look a bit better too.

[artemis]

Comments on this article are worth a read. The comment about SUM buying up nearby places and reselling them with a gag clause is interesting if true. Quite clever.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/103466757/summerset-applies-for-consent-for-150-million-lower-hutt-retirement-village

[macduffy]

Reading the dominion how the Lower Hutt development has cost 50 million more due to neighbours who apposed the scale of the village. It has mentioned that the increase will be passed onto the residents who bought into the upmarket village. Interesting how I always have maintained increasing costs to retirement villages will always mean increasing costs to residents.

But note that this is still a "proposed" development and that no one has actually bought a licence to occupy, it's still a list of interested parties. Naturally, the price will rise if the cost of developing the village increases.

[jimmybuffett]

Comments on this article are worth a read. The comment about SUM buying up nearby places and reselling them with a gag clause is interesting if true. Quite clever.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/103466757/summerset-applies-for-consent-for-150-million-lower-hutt-retirement-village

Makes interesting reading, evidence of thinking ahead.

[Beagle]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12043406

Year on year nationwide average house price growth still ticking along nicely at 7.6% per annum.
Only 7 of SUM's 30 sites are within the greater Auckland area.

[Ggcc]

And the price keeps going up 😊

[couta1]

And the price keeps going up  If it was $1 cheaper, it might be worth buying SUM.

[minimoke]

If it was $1 cheaper, it might be worth buying SUM.
If you think of it as a $8.18 share you will be fine.

[Beagle]

I topped up at very close to $7 in February and again in March 2018.
I think this is one of the safest and most highly likely (double your money in the next few years) opportunities on the NZX. Sure there's other opportunities but I like the way management are cautiously and steadily growing this business and then there's the obvious demographic tailwinds. On a PE basis I think SUM is still very good value when you consider their track record of EPS growth.
Happy to back them to do well in Australia when they believe the time is right.
Despite hitting another all time high today I have no interest whatsoever in selling. Technically and fundamentally this is looking very very good and I remain with a price target of just over $9 one year from now, could be more but time will tell.

[minimoke]

Despite hitting another all time high today I have no interest whatsoever in selling. Nor does anyone else by the looks of it. Only 4 offers on the sell side - and the first of those is at $7.27 (Im now looking at owners of Canterbury Creme and looking at buying into them - product will be spending no time on the shelves)

[Beagle]

Nor does anyone else by the looks of it. Only 4 offers on the sell side - and the first of those is at $7.27 (Im now looking at owners of Canterbury Creme and looking at buying into them - product will be spending no time on the shelves)

:lol: :lol:

[Ggcc]

If it was $1 cheaper, it might be worth buying SUM.

Looks like someone disagrees with that valuation. $7.19 asking and no one is biting............ Yet

[winner69]

Property market looking pretty healthy these days. The bit of downturn in activity seen last year seems to over and number of sales on the rise again ....and prices looking pretty good as well

SUM might beat beagles $100m earnings on this

http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/ce913d2f/nz-house-sales-rise-6-6-in-april-on-strong-demand-tight-inventory-pushes-up-prices.html?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=NZ%20house%20sales%20rise%2066%20in%2 0April%20on%20strong%20demand%20tight%20inventory% 20pushes%20up%20prices&utm_content=NZ%20house%20sales%20rise%2066%20in%20 April%20on%20strong%20demand%20tight%20inventory%2 0pushes%20up%20prices+CID_f81803ec686cdaf98afcd150 b05e670f&utm_source=Email%20marketing%20software&utm_term=httpwwwsharechatconzarticlece913d2fnz-house-sales-rise-6-6-in-april-on-strong-demand-tight-inventory-pushes-up-priceshtml

[Beagle]

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/103717323/ageing-iceberg-of-75-will-put-pressure-on-wellington-retirement-villages

Massive demand predicted for Wellington region

[BlackPeter]

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/103717323/ageing-iceberg-of-75-will-put-pressure-on-wellington-retirement-villages

Massive demand predicted for Wellington region

I am sure the NIMBY's in Wellington and the Hutts will make sure supply stays short. This is until they need a place for their old age for themselves. But than it will be somebody else's fault.

[dabsman]

I still dont know why SUM arent climbing into BOP

[Beagle]

I still dont know why SUM arent climbing into BOP

They're quite picky when it comes to getting the right land acquisitions. I'd suggest the right opportunity simply hasn't come up.

[couta1]

They're quite picky when it comes to getting the right land acquisitions. Shame they are not as picky when it comes to choosing which locals they choose to do battle with.:eek2:

[Food4Thought]

Shame they are not as picky when it comes to choosing which locals they choose to do battle with.:eek2:

Did they buy on your doorstep Couta1?

[couta1]

Did they buy on your doorstep Couta1? Nah, just on the doorstep of the biggest and wealthiest group of NIMBY's in the area.

[James108]

Rynan development margin down. I wonder if this will occur with SUM in near future. That would definitely impact profitability, may even see a decline in underlying earnings in near future. Although I probably won’t be selling as I have modelled a lower development margin Than they are currently achieving.

[ados_nz]

What did your model suggest for SUM with circa Ryman margin decrease?

[Beagle]

Saturday 26 May and Sunday 27 May 10am - 3 pm.
For those that don't know SUM are having a nationwide open weekend next weekend.
List of all villages https://www.summerset.co.nz/contact-us/retirement-villages/

[winner69]

Rynan development margin down. I wonder if this will occur with SUM in near future. That would definitely impact profitability, may even see a decline in underlying earnings in near future. Although I probably won’t be selling as I have modelled a lower development margin Than they are currently achieving.

Ryman don’t really have a ‘marginproblem’

That Petone development was flagged a while ago as a ‘low margin’ development because of seismic requirements. Without Petone it’s more normal, although down a bit because they said build rates were down slightly.

[Ggcc]

Well this is quiet and at $7.50 almost....... boring is good

[value_investor]

All time high reached today on a strong day on the market, will be a few people getting in later.

Will we see some news on guidance this time?

[couta1]

All time high reached today on a strong day on the market, will be a few people getting in later.

Will we see some news on guidance this time? NZX looks overcooked bar a few stocks and this ain't one of them.

[Beagle]

Got the latest issue of Summerset's new magazine Summerset Scene today. Really enjoying seeing them develop their brand with this nice free quarterly magazine, but enjoying the share price climbing even more. Very pleased I held through the long dark days of the election and the aftermath. It was a cold and bitter day in November 2017 when I remember them trading at $4.60..the technical support level's had been breeched and I resolved to myself to simply hang on in there like a nauseous and sick dog clinging on to its bone no matter what may come. Thank goodness that's as bleak as it got and the old saying of its always darkest before the dawn came to pass yet again. 7 months later and its up ~ 63% from that grim day I remember so vividly.

Moral of this story...never blindly follow TA signal's when you really believe in the company, its business case, the management, directors and last but certainly not least, the fundamental's. $9+ by this time next year, remember who called it as that :)

[peat]

i remember that day as well and a similar sentiment, however lets not forget that TA would have put you back in as well, probably in December. You may have missed the beginning of the gain but the long signal would follow soon enough to capitalise.

[winner69]

The Queen not a SSH any more ...until next week probably

My advice to Her Majesty is to get some decent fund managers who don’t play around with shares in your portfolio. As you know with good things you just keep on hanging in there eh to ensure longevity and superior returns

https://quoteapi.com/resources/da9866271f9d0071/announcements/sum.nzx/319169/SUM_SPH_Notice_New_Zealand_Superannuation_Fund_Nom inees_Ltd.pdf?bearer=eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6I kpXVCJ9.eyJzY29wZSI6WyJndWVzdHMiLCJ1c2VycyJdLCJuYm YiOjE1Mjg2ODY4ODEsImV4cCI6MTUyODY4Nzc4MSwiaXNzIjoi c3RvY2tuZXNzIiwibm9uY2UiOiJmYzNjYjFhNWQ5YmIzYTYyIi wiaWF0IjoxNTI4Njg2ODgxLCJzdWIiOjc4OTY5NX0.MW9y84yb LKwDuoU0DbI10XyRDHSMGRRG2Yzf0G1Vdh4

[peat]

The Queen not a SSH any more ...until next week probably


something fishy?
otherwise why bother selling less than 200k shares to put yourself under the 5%?

[Food4Thought]

something fishy?
otherwise why bother selling less than 200k shares to put yourself under the 5%?

Rebalanced their cash account so not too exposed in one share.... buy up into another share. Sell off previous DRIP shares that increased in value as well. Using cash to fund new car fleet going forward... good question

[JCM]

something fishy?
otherwise why bother selling less than 200k shares to put yourself under the 5%?

Yeah, perhaps they've done it so that they don't have to announce when they sell down by a more substantial amount, allowing them to do it slowly and without spooking investors? But then why wouldn't they sell high volume to an institutional investor, I suppose they'd get a better price this way?

Then again, could be simple rebalancing after the recent SP rise.

Regardless, happy holder.

[winner69]

The Queens not doing anything sneaky

Just one of the funds external managers sold a few and when they added up what they held it was just below 5% and they told us

Probably be over 5% again soon

You guys think about things too much and look for things that aren’t there

[Beagle]

The Queens not doing anything sneaky

Just one of the funds external managers sold a few and when they added up what they held it was just below 5% and they told us

Probably be over 5% again soon

You guys think about things too much and look for things that aren’t there

Agree 100%. There's SUM things in life you simply don't need to worry about.

[Baa_Baa]

You guys think about things too much and look for things that aren’t there

Probably do, there's lots of rationalising ones decisions here (cognitive bias), but I reckon the most vociferous (who are bluntly obvious, despite their probably lonely days as bored - almost/semi/retired with nought else to do than post here constantly every day), they are also the most nimble, the best informed, the most experienced here, and they are also out the exit door at the slightest whiff of any downside (even in their darlings), regardless of months or even years of spruiking support, and cleverly they're back in at the slightest whiff of a bottom, profit or dividend, regardless of their previous slagging or down-ramping, before the majority even realises the circumstances have changed! Fickle, clever, but that's the market isn't it. They're the ones that the dumb money is transferring their wealth to, they're the smart money. No point really questioning how they go about it, it takes lifetime to develop a system that works (mostly) consistently. A few here have it nailed, even if they think about it a bit too much, let alone talk about it incessantly. Bless them, it's what makes this place.

[Beagle]

Probably do, there's lots of rationalising ones decisions here (cognitive bias), but I reckon the most vociferous (who are bluntly obvious, despite their probably lonely days as bored - almost/semi/retired with nought else to do than post here constantly every day), they are also the most nimble, the best informed, the most experienced here, and they are also out the exit door at the slightest whiff of any downside (even in their darlings), regardless of months or even years of spruiking support, and cleverly they're back in at the slightest whiff of a bottom, profit or dividend, regardless of their previous slagging or down-ramping, before the majority even realises the circumstances have changed! Fickle, clever, but that's the market isn't it. They're the ones that the dumb money is transferring their wealth to, they're the smart money. No point really questioning how they go about it, it takes lifetime to develop a system that works (mostly) consistently. A few here have it nailed, even if they think about it a bit too much, let alone talk about it incessantly. Bless them, it's what makes this place.

The place would be like a morgue if the dozen or so lead posters here stopped yapping as much and the hundreds of freeloaders that never post would have no tip sheet to read :)

[Onion]

The place would be like a morgue if the dozen or so lead posters here stopped yapping as much and the hundreds of freeloaders that never post would have no tip sheet to read :)

9,629 yaps and counting...

[couta1]

The place would be like a morgue if the dozen or so lead posters here stopped yapping as much and the hundreds of freeloaders that never post would have no tip sheet to read :) Yep, I wonder how much money all the freeloaders have made from all the knowledge shared by the frequent posters. PS-Should be a subscription forum IMO.

[Beagle]

The Queens not doing anything sneaky

Just one of the funds external managers sold a few and when they added up what they held it was just below 5% and they told us

Probably be over 5% again soon

You guys think about things too much and look for things that aren’t there

What about our dear friend Winner though. Rapidly closing in on 20,000 yaps !! You're a real Legend mate, keep up the good work and here's a challenge for you to think about. Try and come up with something really profound for your 20,000 th post !

[winner69]

What about our dear friend Winner though. Rapidly closing in on 20,000 yaps !! You're a real Legend mate, keep up the good work and here's a challenge for you to think about. Try and come up with something really profound for your 20,000 th post !

No no Beagle ....not yap yap ....mieow mieow mieow please


But as the beagle has more reputation points than the cat and with about half the number of posts the Beagle must be twice as good as me ...but at least I'm purrfect

[Beagle]

No no Beagle ....not yap yap ....mieow mieow mieow please


But as the beagle has more reputation points than the cat and with about half the number of posts the Beagle must be twice as good as me ...but at least I'm purrfect

LOL mate not according to SUM on here that's for sure, besides you don't have to look far for a more clever example. He obviously learned very early that it doesn't pay to gnaw on the same bone for too long so he buried them but what do you know, that causes problems too !
https://www.stuff.co.nz/auckland/104649638/dogs-buried-bones-halt-housing-development-and-get-police-called-in
Hope there's not SUM bones buried on that Boulcott site, taken them long enough already.

[couta1]

You guys must have been better behaved animals than me as you both have an extra blue star.

[winner69]

Onions post did bring tears to my eyes

[Leftfield]

Yep, I wonder how much money all the freeloaders have made from all the knowledge shared by the frequent posters. PS-Should be a subscription forum IMO.

Good luck with that....... I suspect your combined ego's are in danger of tripping you up!

I'm not sure if I'm classed as a 'freeloader' but just wanted to say that my best successes are not shares recommended by either you or the Beagle.

That said, I appreciate all opinions and long live the free expression on this site..... but beware of over inflated ego's.

[Joshuatree]

9,629 yaps and counting...
Touche, in a nut shell:t_up:

[Cricketfan]

Yep, I wonder how much money all the freeloaders have made from all the knowledge shared by the frequent posters. PS-Should be a subscription forum IMO.

I'm one of these freeloaders but I've found it's not the frequent posters who have made me money. There are some here who don't post that often, but what they do post is useful and the stocks they hold tend to be the good ones. So I do tend to use these posters as a guide whenever I'm trying to decide what to invest in next. I've found other posters are mostly noise, reacting to any movement up or down (or even no movement) so I just gloss over their posts. And there's one poster who seems to make consistently bad picks so I tend to use him as a guide as to what not to buy, and that's saved me a bit.

[couta1]

I think you guys have misinterpreted my post, clearly neither of you are freeloaders as you both have post counts, freeloaders are those who have been members for years and never contributed but mainly the multitude that view this forum with no intention of ever joining up. There are many that have helped me during my time on here and I'm very thankful to them. PS-I also agree with Beagle, take out the top 20 most frequent posters and the place would be a cemetery Lol.

[Brain]

If someone is new to the investment game then they may not have much to offer and probably don’t post for that reason. A lot of new investors would be learning a lot from this forum. The 20 odd regular contributors are doing every body a great service. Greatly appreciated by this cat.

[Leftfield]

I think you guys have misinterpreted my post, clearly neither of you are freeloaders as you both have post counts, freeloaders are those who have been members for years and never contributed but mainly the multitude that view this forum with no intention of ever joining up. There are many that have helped me during my time on here and I'm very thankful to them. PS-I also agree with Beagle, take out the top 20 most frequent posters and the place would be a cemetery Lol.

Thanks Couta, just wanted to say I appreciate all posters, including you and Beagle. However, to my mind it is dangerous if we start letting our ego's think we are in the 'top 20' or 'best posters' etc.

There is a certain other forum where posters whose ego's got ahead of themselves have gone to. IMO it is a rather lonely and negative space compared to the 'vitality' of this forum.

Long live diverse opinions and many of them...... (I think we all agree on that!)

ps I spent a year lurking and not posting before I plucked up courage to make my first post. It was a great way to learn, and I have recommended that strategy to many.

So for all the silent posters out there, there are likely to be quite a few of our next generation active posters.

[Joshuatree]

Great post, especially that last sentence.

[Beagle]

Its nothing whatsoever to do with their ego's. I am fortunate to know a number of them personally and they're highly articulate, extremely intelligent and very pleasant people. They are a GREAT loss to both this forum and the newbie's trying to learn from it.

[LAC]

I appreciate all the facts and opinions of this forum. Some are great tips and some are just noise. Most posters have a little of both as their views change with the wind if you go back far enough with their posts so like most it is just taken with a grain of sale.
The usual contributors really give me a laugh sometime so I appreciate all the posts/banter.
With regard to the top 20 posters, maybe one of the Admins can give us that info if available, the top 20 posters based on time their join date:) - number of posts/time.
That would be interesting to see, especially if there's posters who are in the top 20 but no longer post.

[winner69]

I appreciate all the facts and opinions of this forum. Some are great tips and some are just noise. Most posters have a little of both as their views change with the wind if you go back far enough with their posts so like most it is just taken with a grain of sale.
The usual contributors really give me a laugh sometime so I appreciate all the posts/banter.
With regard to the top 20 posters, maybe one of the Admins can give us that info if available, the top 20 posters based on time their join date:) - number of posts/time.
That would be interesting to see, especially if there's posters who are in the top 20 but no longer post.

You can get most of that under the COMMUNITY tab and Member List if really interested.

Click on the headings and it sorts

Good for a laugh

[winner69]

This forum over the years has seen many famous people pass through, esp in their younger (learning days). On their own admission they said they learnt heaps as well as having fun

One of those is the now the principle of a successful funds management company which is often mentioned on here and one that many on here have made heaps

Another young guy learnt some hard lessons about investing in ‘cheap’ companies on hear but he was a bright cookie and last I heard was making millions in a leading investment bank

Many more have passed through here over the years

Even The Examiner has been here touting his wares.

[couta1]

Its nothing whatsoever to do with their ego's. I am fortunate to know a number of them personally and they're highly articulate, extremely intelligent and very pleasant people. They are a GREAT loss to both this forum and the newbie's trying to learn from it. The top 20 are not necessarily the best 20, just the ones that make the effort to contribute on a regular basis regardless of how busy they may be, those willing to share their bad decisions and loss stories not just their successes make an even greater contribution IMO. PS-Everyone has something to contribute and that's the Crux of this current discussion.

[Leftfield]

OK glad we got that sorted.....back to SUM business! :t_up:

[couta1]

OK glad we got that sorted.....back to SUM business! :t_up: You mean if it drops 80c-$1 it would be worth buying.

[winner69]

yep, back to SUM

Updated and recalibrated my SUM linear regression channel chart for SUM

Looks awesome eh .... through market corrections, perceived property market collapses and all sorts of things share price has appreciated 28% pa

Where it is now is interesting

Has the shareprice got ahead of itself lately? Maybe couts will see a lower price in the next month or so as the price falls back into its long term channel. Then again the share price might be forming a new channel and the share price will increase 40% pa in future as it gets rerated to the premium stock in this sector ....doubt that though

As a long time holder i'll still hold until that the chart breaks down. A short to medium term investor/trader/punter might think that now is a good time to take profits as the current price to them probably looks a bit rich.


good stuff eh

[Beagle]

yep, back to SUM

Updated and recalibrated my SUM linear regression channel chart for SUM

Looks awesome eh .... through market corrections, perceived property market collapses and all sorts of things share price has appreciated 28% pa

Where it is now is interesting

Has the shareprice got ahead of itself lately? Maybe couts will see a lower price in the next month or so as the price falls back into its long term channel. Then again the share price might be forming a new channel and the share price will increase 40% pa in future as it gets rerated to the premium stock in this sector ....doubt that though

As a long time holder i'll still hold until that the chart breaks down. A short to medium term investor/trader/punter might think that now is a good time to take profits as the current price to them probably looks a bit rich.


good stuff eh

An excellent post to celebrate your 20,000th post on ST. Congrats and let me say that I always appreciate your contributions mate. Its always a genuine pleasure reading your posts on here :)

[Yoda]

yep, back to SUM

Updated and recalibrated my SUM linear regression channel chart for SUM

Looks awesome eh .... through market corrections, perceived property market collapses and all sorts of things share price has appreciated 28% pa

Where it is now is interesting

Has the shareprice got ahead of itself lately? Maybe couts will see a lower price in the next month or so as the price falls back into its long term channel. Then again the share price might be forming a new channel and the share price will increase 40% pa in future as it gets rerated to the premium stock in this sector ....doubt that though

As a long time holder i'll still hold until that the chart breaks down. A short to medium term investor/trader/punter might think that now is a good time to take profits as the current price to them probably looks a bit rich.


good stuff eh

if you went logarithmic rather than linear on your chart, then percentage wise, it is probably correct ,Im just guessing.... .i mean a 30 % gain would look different and it may actually fall within the channel.

yes ditto, you are a true legend at 2 k !!
thanks for all your wisdom. Respect.
,

[Chinesekiwi]

So I am one of these people.

I read the forums fairly regularly and don't comment.

I am enthused by the regular posters as I respect their thoughts and experiences that they share.

I'm new to buying shares so I am fully just watching and learning.

I know so little - I shut the heck up as I have little to contribute and would look a bit of a dick.

One day I'll have something to say.




If someone is new to the investment game then they may not have much to offer and probably don’t post for that reason. A lot of new investors would be learning a lot from this forum. The 20 odd regular contributors are doing every body a great service. Greatly appreciated by this cat.

[RupertBear]

yep, back to SUM

Updated and recalibrated my SUM linear regression channel chart for SUM

Looks awesome eh .... through market corrections, perceived property market collapses and all sorts of things share price has appreciated 28% pa

Where it is now is interesting

Has the shareprice got ahead of itself lately? Maybe couts will see a lower price in the next month or so as the price falls back into its long term channel. Then again the share price might be forming a new channel and the share price will increase 40% pa in future as it gets rerated to the premium stock in this sector ....doubt that though

As a long time holder i'll still hold until that the chart breaks down. A short to medium term investor/trader/punter might think that now is a good time to take profits as the current price to them probably looks a bit rich.


good stuff eh

Ditto to the comment posted by Mr Beagle. Thank you for sharing your words of wisdom and witty comments on here. Much appreciated Winner.

[QOH]

Congratulations Winner69 on passing 20000 posts.
You really are the cats whiskers and my favourite poster, love your sense of humour.

[iceman]

So I am one of these people.

I read the forums fairly regularly and don't comment.

I am enthused by the regular posters as I respect their thoughts and experiences that they share.

I'm new to buying shares so I am fully just watching and learning.

I know so little - I shut the heck up as I have little to contribute and would look a bit of a dick.

One day I'll have something to say.

Well done. Keep on learning, from all sources available, including ST. Good luck with your investing

[Zaphod]

So I am one of these people.

I read the forums fairly regularly and don't comment.

I am enthused by the regular posters as I respect their thoughts and experiences that they share.

I'm new to buying shares so I am fully just watching and learning.

I know so little - I shut the heck up as I have little to contribute and would look a bit of a dick.

One day I'll have something to say.

I'd still encourage you to post, as you might bring a new perspective to the table that none of the regular posters have though about. Some fresh thinking should always be welcomed.

Remember too that there is no such thing as a dumb question.

[Gonzo]

cash is gunna be king when the next crash happens

[dabsman]

cash is gunna be king when the next crash happens

Cash is always king in a crash - is Summerset crashing?

[minimoke]

cash is gunna be king when the next crash happens
How big is this crash going to be? I'm up 57% in six months on SUM so I figure I can take this size hit and still be break even.

Crashes aren't bad - if you look at markets they invariably stride off to new highs not long after a crash.

(best you be aware we have no government guarantee on cash deposits - so I'd be wary of evn having cash)

[winner69]

Property market still pretty strong
https://www.reinz.co.nz/Media/Default/Statistic%20Documents/2018/Residential/May/REINZ%20Residential%20Press%20Release%20-%20May%202018.pdf

Good for Summerset et al

News makes that $100m forecast even more certain

[Snoopy]

Cash is gunna be king when the next crash happens.


Be very careful if your cash is in New Zealand when the crash comes. NZ is one of the few countries without any government guarantees on bank accounts. I think that you will find that cash in an NZ bank account in the event of a market wide crash will see cash deposit holders taking a haircut. I expect a threshold on this so that those with cash assets of under $10,000 or so would not be affected. But if you wish to park your investment cash in NZ bank accounts, I would advise you to spread that cash around amongst multiple banks.

SNOOPY

[couta1]

Be very careful if your cash is in New Zealand when the crash comes. NZ is one of the few countries without any government guarantees on bank accounts. I think that you will find that cash in an NZ bank account in the event of a market wide crash will see cash deposit holders taking a haircut. I expect a threshold on this so that those with cash assets of under $10,000 or so would not be affected. But if you wish to park your investment cash in NZ bank accounts, I would advise you to spread that cash around amongst multiple banks.

SNOOPY I wonder if that haircut would apply to your ANZ Securities account, soon to be a FNZC cash management account? Technically not a bank account?

[minimoke]

I wonder if that haircut would apply to your ANZ Securities account, soon to be a NZFC cash management account? Technically not a bank account?
Which is why mine is running at near $0 and will get topped up when the need arises.

[couta1]

Which is why mine is running at near $0 and will get topped up when the need arises. I would have thought that once FNZC take over, your cash management account is no longer a bank account in the true sense?

[Onion]

I would have thought that once FNZC take over, your cash management account is no longer a bank account in the true sense?

I think ANZ will still effectively run a bank account for FNZC. In the terms and conditions I seem to recall that FNZC will take a slice of the interest that ANZ will pay on the account.

[Brain]

Be very careful if your cash is in New Zealand when the crash comes. NZ is one of the few countries without any government guarantees on bank accounts. I think that you will find that cash in an NZ bank account in the event of a market wide crash will see cash deposit holders taking a haircut. I expect a threshold on this so that those with cash assets of under $10,000 or so would not be affected. But if you wish to park your investment cash in NZ bank accounts, I would advise you to spread that cash around amongst multiple banks.

SNOOPY

You forgot to mention Gold. From time to time I think about buying a gold bar or Two. If concerned about security it could be buried in the garden much like a dog buries a bone.
Maybe one for the garden and one as a paper weight for the office.

[Filthy]

You forgot to mention Gold. From time to time I think about buying a gold bar or Two. If concerned about security it could be buried in the garden much like a dog buries a bone.
Maybe one for the garden and one as a paper weight for the office.

reckon you might be better off buying a shot-gun if the banking system fails. it would be anarchy ;)

[Brain]

reckon you might be better off buying a shot-gun if the banking system fails. it would be anarchy ;)
Ok I will make that a shotgun with a gold stock. That should do it.

[Onion]

You forgot to mention Gold. From time to time I think about buying a gold bar or Two. If concerned about security it could be buried in the garden much like a dog buries a bone.
Maybe one for the garden and one as a paper weight for the office.

If I could just remember where I buried my gold I wouldn't need to go to the office.

[Ggcc]

Nice finish to the day SUM at $7.61 and an all time high of $7.72 seen today. $8 by the end of next month and getting on the way (but about 3/5 years time) to catching up to Rymans sp unless something drastically goes wrong.

[couta1]

Nice finish to the day SUM at $7.61 and an all time high of $7.72 seen today. $8 by the end of next month and getting on the way (but about 3/5 years time) to catching up to Rymans sp unless something drastically goes wrong. Index rebalance drove the price today as it did with a few other stocks. As for catching Ryman, no offense but that's a fantasy(Bar another share split) I'd bet some good coin on it. PS-Think what the RYM share price would be right now hadn't they had a 5:1share split and compare that with SUM.

[Ggcc]

Index rebalance drove the price today as it did with a few other stocks. As for catching Ryman, no offense but that's a fantasy(Bar another share split) I'd bet some good coin on it.
I won’t put any coin on it, but I have put it in my diary for 3 years time to see where the price will be out of interest. Out of interest what price do you see Summerset and Ryman being in 3 years time?

[couta1]

I won’t put any coin on it, but I have put it in my diary for 3 years time to see where the price will be out of interest. Out of interest what price do you see Summerset and Ryman being in 3 years time? RYM around $20 and SUM around $12. PS-Forgot to mention OCA which I see at $2.50 in 3 yrs.

[trader_jackson]

As you may know, sum retirement village operators are having a Auckland wide open day today at their villages. I went for a tour around sum Hobsonville facility today. As you may also know, I have been a slight critic of SUM in the past, namely as I have been a bit skeptical of their 40+% growth rates continuing due to a few factors, such as arguable high (compared to sum others) gearing and how this could be impact when/if price growth slowed down and/or if interest rates rose.

However, although I will not go into details, I was fairly impressed" would be the best 4 words to sum it up... so much so that if OCA wasn't so cheap (and I also had some cash for investment), I would be putting myself on sum other share registers.
The sum puns are definitely far to overused, although still much better than Bupa's facilities... one of which is having an open day tomorrow I think.

[Beagle]

I had a good look around Hobsonville about this time last year and also came away impressed especially with their north facing waterfront homes.

Shares are up 50% since then but are still SUMwhat cheap compared to RYM on a forward PE of 17 v 25 for RYM.

OCA do look to have the most short term potential though at present but are unproven so only time will tell.

[Ggcc]

And the shares keep rising. How nice

[couta1]

And the shares keep rising. How nice Perhaps those wanting to buy at current prices may want to consider waiting a couple of weeks until the Q2 sales metrics are released, you could pick them up cheaper then.

[Ggcc]

Perhaps those wanting to buy at current prices may want to consider waiting a couple of weeks until the Q2 sales metrics are released, you could pick them up cheaper then.
You maybe correct with that statement, but I don’t think the short term individual is currently purchasing at these levels. I will hope to see this share rise roughly between $1.50 to $2 per year if they can maintain momentum. Maybe beagle is correct with his $9 something by this Christmas..... whatever happens great to see you are doing well on the sharemarket Couta. Up roughly 22% I believe

[winner69]

Perhaps those wanting to buy at current prices may want to consider waiting a couple of weeks until the Q2 sales metrics are released, you could pick them up cheaper then.

Seeing how richly priced SUM is at the moment they wouldn’t to report another quarter where new sales are less than pcps ...that would be 5 quarters in a row of declining new unit sales (one quarter was the same though)

So Couts me old mate ...you could be right and they be cheaper after the announcement.


But you would expect the number of new sales to match the hype sooner than later eh ...else we’ll get days of post mortems

[Beagle]

You maybe correct with that statement, but I don’t think the short term individual is currently purchasing at these levels. I will hope to see this share rise roughly between $1.50 to $2 per year if they can maintain momentum. Maybe beagle is correct with his $9 something by this Christmas..... whatever happens great to see you are doing well on the sharemarket Couta. Up roughly 22% I believe


Over $9 by this time next year is my target. They've had a stellar run since their low of $4.60 in November, up 61%. I'd be surprised if that sort of momentum continued but nonetheless I am a very happy long term holder, certainly a lot happier than I was last November lol

[Ggcc]

Over $9 by this time next year is my target. They've had a stellar run since their low of $4.60 in November, up 61%. I'd be surprised if that sort of momentum continued but nonetheless I am a very happy long term holder, certainly a lot happier than I was last November lol
Ok thanks for that and totally agree!!

[winner69]

Perhaps those wanting to buy at current prices may want to consider waiting a couple of weeks until the Q2 sales metrics are released, you could pick them up cheaper then.

Hope Q2 sees the dark line turn upwards ....been dismal for a year or so

Chart doies highlight that its been booming property prices (ie revaluations) that has been the main driver of of the 40% growth in earnings over the last few years

[Ggcc]

$7.81 how nice and coming closer to $8

[couta1]

$7.81 how nice and coming closer to $8 See if Q2 results backs up the current lofty price, I very much doubt it.PS-They will need to be fantastic in order to.

[winner69]

See if Q2 results backs up the current lofty price, I very much doubt it.

If the numbers aren’t that good there will be plenty of reasons why that was so .....and that’ll appease the market eh

[couta1]

If the numbers aren’t that good there will be plenty of reasons why that was so .....and that’ll appease the market eh Yeah like a few of their sales staff have run over to work for OCA. PS-Im not joking.

[Ggcc]

See if Q2 results backs up the current lofty price, I very much doubt it.PS-They will need to be fantastic in order to.
You might be correct, but I have no intention to sell unless something goes fundamentally wrong. If everything is running to plan and it does go back a little it won’t go near my purchase price. I am a Long term holder of Summerset and prefer this over what I believe is an overvalued Ryman.

Summerset now on $7.90

[silu]

fwiw Ingenia Group on the ASX has upgraded their guidance. IMO There doesn't even seem to be any goodwill in the current SP from any future Australian business. Let's hope Paul Morris does a good job over there.

[Ggcc]

fwifw Ingenia Group on the ASX has upgraded their guidance. IMO There doesn't even seem to be any goodwill in the current SP from any future Australian business. Let's hope Paul Morris does a good job over there.

Thank goodness I own them as well!! They have been standing still for a while now though. I have owned those shares for almost 5 years

[RTM]

Perhaps those wanting to buy at current prices may want to consider waiting a couple of weeks until the Q2 sales metrics are released, you could pick them up cheaper then.

Hi Couta, Have they said when the Q2 results will be released ? Couldn’t see anything on their site, but maybe I missed it.
Cheers,
RTM

[couta1]

Hi Couta, Have they said when the Q2 results will be released ? Couldn’t see anything on their site, but maybe I missed it.
Cheers,
RTM They have to release it by the 10th of July.

[couta1]

You might be correct, but I have no intention to sell unless something goes fundamentally wrong. If everything is running to plan and it does go back a little it won’t go near my purchase price. I am a Long term holder of Summerset and prefer this over what I believe is an overvalued Ryman.

Summerset now on $7.90 IMO SUM is the overvalued one at current prices, not RYM, but if your long it doesn't matter, more an issue for today's buyers as they may have to sit on a loss for a certain length of time in due course.

[winner69]

Hi Couta, Have they said when the Q2 results will be released ? Couldn’t see anything on their site, but maybe I missed it.
Cheers,
RTM

Their commitment -  Quarterly metrics on occupation right sales are provided by the 10th of the month following the end of each quarter.

[Beagle]

If they can do $100m underlying earnings for the year ended 31/12/2018 that's just on 45 cps and a forward PE of 17.5 and that for a company with average compound growth of 45% since listing six years ago. PEG ratio of just 0.39 based on 6 years of growth data. Perhaps the most attractive PEG ratio on the NZX ? Some analysts think the NZX as a whole is currently trading on about 24 times forward earnings. With SUM's truly outstanding track record of growth why should it trade on a forward multiple of less than the market average ?
I don't think I'll be packing my bags for the Auckland Islands anytime soon :D
OCA is cheap for two reasons. 1. It is a very young company with little history upon which to judge its track record. 2. There is a MASSIVE stock overhang waiting in the wings. Neither of those issues will be fixed quickly. Disc: Hold SUM, OCA and RYM in descending order of portfolio allocation. Looking to add to all three.

[couta1]

I don't think I'll be packing my bags for the Auckland Islands anytime soon :D The call to pack may come quickly, remain on standby.PS-I hope you packed your bags full of those dirt cheap AIR shares this arvo.

[RTM]

Their commitment -  Quarterly metrics on occupation right sales are provided by the 10th of the month following the end of each quarter.

Thanks Winner and Couta.
By the way Winner...Always wondered what the 69 was for ? Were you born in the summer of '69 or …..?

[minimoke]

Got my Sum Magazine a few weeks back. Good wee read. But then I got my RYM Annual Report in the mail yesterday - jeez - now that is a read and a half. Maybe a bit of inter-industry competition on who can produce most magazine content for shareholders.

[Beagle]

Got my Sum Magazine a few weeks back. Good wee read. But then I got my RYM Annual Report in the mail yesterday - jeez - now that is a read and a half. Maybe a bit of inter-industry competition on who can produce most magazine content for shareholders.


Check out the staff share plan's of the two respective companies...quite an interesting comparison. Staff across all of RYM have between them all, (senior management get a much better deal) just $1m available in interest free loans to help them get on board as shareholders...meanwhile SUM have quite a different policy.

[macduffy]

I hold and rate both very highly but RYM's A/R seems almost an overkill as a marketing tool. 114 pages before getting to the financials!

[winner69]

Retirement sector having a good day except for SUM

Down 2% .....maybe a few think next weeks numbers are going to be disappointing ...or even very disappointing.

Maybe the hints on here are correct

[Beagle]

Retirement sector having a good day except for SUM

Down 2% .....maybe a few think next weeks numbers are going to be disappointing ...or even very disappointing.

Maybe the hints on here are correct

SUM people may be speculating as such whilst others are happy to hold long term.

[Ggcc]

SUM people may be speculating as such whilst others are happy to hold long term.
Long term nothing to worry about, short term good luck guessing.

I am a happy shareholder of this company

[minimoke]

Looks to me like those bot things with their wee trades driving price down. No alarm here. Even at current price I'm 60% up so can well afford a drop with this long term stake.

[Lewylewylewy]

Just slightly overpriced atm.. drop was expected and another coming. I'm buying more

[Food4Thought]

I'm so happy to see it drop back a bit... those gains got me a little too excited. ... to see a portfolio grow 10% in a month or so is a bit mind boggling. It's done handsomely for me. Buy price under $3 if you include the divis paid over the years. ... loving Sum and sad in a way I sold many end of last year and some early this year. ... may it be a good decision or a unknown. It's OCA to be in the unknown ��
On a positive note. Visit Queensland if you want to have a bit of a understanding regarding a fast growing aging population. New Zealand is still so idelic compared to where a major portion of 7.56 Billion other earthlings spend their time.... amazing things are coming to those who wait... and perhaps the numbers won't be fantastic in July. ... yet I can wait a couple dozen years before I pull a sad face regarding these investment decisions.

[winner69]

Good sales numbers tomorrow ....or we might have to wait to Friday

[couta1]

Good sales numbers tomorrow ....or we might have to wait to Friday Or you might have to wait until next Monday.