SUM - Summerset Group

[winner69]

Or you might have to wait until next Monday.

Looks like it is going to be Monday

Hope there are more than 82 sales of new units or else punters will be getting a bit worried .....still touting 450 new units but really need to pull finger I reckon if going to do that

[winner69]

Thanks Winner and Couta.
By the way Winner...Always wondered what the 69 was for ? Were you born in the summer of '69 or …..?

Just there were 68 winners before me

[winner69]

Is only the 9th but still no announcement

Usually on the ball with this sort of stuff

Maybe getting the spin doctors involved to turn so good news into a glowing report with some good words ...or maybe come up with a new metric

If they need help I have a machine that can do that for them .....maybe they could PM me ha ha

[couta1]

Is only the 9th but still no announcement

Usually on the ball with this sort of stuff

Maybe getting the spin doctors involved to turn so good news into a glowing report with some good words ...or maybe come up with a new metric

If they need help I have a machine that can do that for them .....maybe they could PM me ha ha They will be frantically trying to figure out how to present the numbers to stop that dreaded reversion to the mean from occuring.

[winner69]

They will be frantically trying to figure out how to present the numbers to stop that dreaded reversion to the mean from occuring.

Need to put enough in report to get the likes of beagle to highlight the real good bits and extrapolate into the future

The Q2 numbers can’t be that bad ......can they?

[Beagle]

Need to put enough in report to get the likes of beagle to highlight the real good bits and extrapolate into the future

The Q2 numbers can’t be that bad ......can they?

Maybe there's so many sales its taking them longer than usual to add them all up :)

[winner69]

Maybe there's so many sales its taking them longer than usual to add them all up :)

We all live in hope but it doesn’t take too much effort to count to 200 odd

Maybe that story about their (top?) sales people moving to the opposition has slowed sales up quite a bit

[couta1]

We all live in hope but it doesn’t take too much effort to count to 200 odd

Maybe that story about their (top?) sales people moving to the opposition has slowed sales up quite a bit Fear not winner, on 3 other occasions the quarterly metrics have been released to the market on or after the 10th of the relevant month(Ranging from the 10th-17th)

[Beagle]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vlQxZ9sUU1M Looks okay in SUMmer. Best for me if SUM does extremely well till SUMmer :)

[peat]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vlQxZ9sUU1M Looks okay in SUMmer. Best for me if SUM does extremely well till SUMmer :)


Off topic: google Heritage Expeditions. they do annual trips to SubAntarctic Islands (and other interesting places)
its always been a dream of mine to go to Campbell and Auckland Is.

[winner69]

Fear not winner, on 3 other occasions the quarterly metrics have been released to the market on or after the 10th of the relevant month(Ranging from the 10th-17th)

But that was a few year ago .... and they had to hold back a few days so certain punters could top up pre-release

[Beagle]

But that was a few year ago .... and they had to hold back a few days so certain punters could top up pre-release

Or possibly helpfully late so a certain party could "Gnaw" away selling down her holding. (Note to self, must try harder to stop digging up old bones and gnawing on them)

Okay I admit it, I am worried that this quester's release is so slow...hope they're not having to massage the press release through some fancy public relations consultancy to try and make a silk purse out of a sow's ear.

[couta1]

Or possibly helpfully late so a certain party could "Gnaw" away selling down her holding. Nah she was well sold down by 12/1/15 when Q4 metrics were released.

[Baa_Baa]

Hope they won't be needing this. https://www.atrixnet.com/bs-generator.html Gotta make those forecast sales numbers, else SP has got some reflection coming.

[Beagle]

Hope they won't be needing this. https://www.atrixnet.com/bs-generator.html Gotta make those forecast sales numbers, else SP has got some reflection coming.

What a ripper...you can really have some fun conceptually strategizing synergistic corporate public relations creativity with that. What a remarkable tool.
Might flick a link to that through to Julian, hope he doesn't need it :eek2: but sure he will see the funny side.

[couta1]

Hope they won't be needing this. https://www.atrixnet.com/bs-generator.html Gotta make those forecast sales numbers, else SP has got some reflection coming. Very cool Baa_Baa, I'm sure the executive team at SUM will be hard out studying and playing around on the bs generator tonight.

[Baa_Baa]

Very cool Baa_Baa, I'm sure the executive team at SUM will be hard out studying and playing around on the bs generator tonight.

Ha ha, yeah cool eh. Lots of other companies need it more than SUM, just gotta make those numbers. Do what they say, say what they'll do. Justify the confidence built into the SP.

[DarkHorse]

Hope they won't be needing this. https://www.atrixnet.com/bs-generator.html Gotta make those forecast sales numbers, else SP has got some reflection coming.

Genius :t_up:

[Brain]

https://www.radionz.co.nz/news/national/361446/elderly-woman-gets-infection-after-dressing-not-changed


Not good at all

[Joshuatree]

Agree,that is clever funny and insightful .How to spin in a click.

[G on]

Yes Brain, the lack of effective wound care is never good for the rest homes. It is not just one fail for this to happen either so their systems are lacking. All of the rest homes have a report done on how wound care is addressed and is accessible by the public before deciding to place their oldies. My sister researched this and other facts before deciding on where our mother was going. Of course the question is what they are going to do to improve their handling of wound control and ease peoples minds that their facility is the right one for them.

[winner69]

Sales numbers a shocker but all honky dory on the profit front

Just as well we have had a strong property market or else the profit numbers wouldn’t be so good

share price should shoot up today ...yes?

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/SUM/320621/282521.pdf

[LAC]

uuummmmmm dont think the punters going to like those numbers.

Summerset Group achieved 156 sales for the quarter ending 30 June 2018, comprising 77 new sales and 79 resales.

[winner69]

uuummmmmm dont think the punters going to like those numbers.

Summerset Group achieved 156 sales for the quarter ending 30 June 2018, comprising 77 new sales and 79 resales.

Heck mate .....a 25% profit increase is more than solid

Heading to $100m for full year

Only on a PE of 16ish ...really cheap

No worries

[LAC]

Heck mate .....a 25% profit increase is more than solid

Heading to $100m for full year

Only on a PE of 16ish ...really cheap

No worries
W69, I liked the announcement, as I am a long term holder but just looking at the last time they didnt get the sales numbers up, the SP took a knock. Previously as well, resales is what got the profit up - fine with me. As I said, I like the announcements:)

[winner69]

Numbers better than I thought they might be

Nothing to turn the believers off

And they didn’t use the bull **** generator

[hardt]

Don't see much wrong with 25% growth, you want to be able to sell less for more...

[Brain]

Yes Brain, the lack of effective wound care is never good for the rest homes. It is not just one fail for this to happen either so their systems are lacking. All of the rest homes have a report done on how wound care is addressed and is accessible by the public before deciding to place their oldies. My sister researched this and other facts before deciding on where our mother was going. Of course the question is what they are going to do to improve their handling of wound control and ease peoples minds that their facility is the right one for them.


These places are are claimed to be caring environments. An old lady hurts her leg and it is dressed. No body is interested enough or caring enough to follow it up. You shouldn’t need systems in place to make sure that this lady is cared for properly. It should happen naturally.

G on I would appreciate it if you could let me know how I can access the above report you mention. Thanks in advance.

[winner69]

Julian said - “Resales also remain strong across all villages and are at levels consistent with 2017, with no sign of impacts from any changing property market conditions”

The hidden message is that he expects the property market to ‘weaken’ and that in 2019 /2020 things might not be as rosy earnings wise.

[Ggcc]

I liked the announcement and am happy to keep holding even if it drops 50 cents or so.... Which may not even happen. Onward and upward to $9.00 by Christmas next year I think beagle mentioned.

[winner69]

I note they have dropped the long touted 450 new units target.

It has gone from a target of 450 sales to 450 ‘will be delivered’ and now not mentioned ....hmmmm

A lot can be said in a few words ... or from lack of words

[bull....]

good numbers , ive always wondered if resales are up does that mean people are changing units or leaving or dying quicker?

[winner69]

good numbers , ive always wondered if resales are up does that mean people are changing units or leaving or dying quicker?

Some leave because their wounds don’t get changed ......but I think it’s about the number of people dying

That’s what oldguy who was a guru told us

Churn rate suggests tenures are getting longer (not dying quicker)

[couta1]

I note they have dropped the long touted 450 new units target.

It has gone from a target of 450 sales to 450 ‘will be delivered’ and now not mentioned ....hmmmm

A lot can be said in a few words ... or from lack of words Those new sales numbers not flash aye winner, 21-26% growth, will be 15-18% next year, getting closer to RYM by the year. PS-SP never going to catch RYM, no way.

[allfromacell]

I'm optimistically waiting for further news on Australia.

With new unit builds not really increasing, sales flat and in my opinion NZ house price growth to follow Auckland's and go sideways, Australia has a lot more potential to boost future growth.

[bull....]

Some leave because their wounds don’t get changed ......but I think it’s about the number of people dying

That’s what oldguy who was a guru told us



bit like an insurance company model , you could model age of residents against resales to plot estimates forward

[winner69]

Those new sales numbers not flash aye winner, 21-26% growth, will be 15-18% next year, getting closer to RYM by the year. PS-SP never going to catch RYM, no way.

I was going going to say something like 15-18% next year but thought it might upset sum on here.

I think it’s likely to be be sub 20% this full year ......and what Julian is signalling only 10%-15% next year F19

Yep ..never catch Ryman share price ....better odds on it being 50% of Ryman eh

[Beagle]

Profit forecast speaks for itself and yes we are on track to reach $100m underlying this year. I have been modelling about 25% uptick in underlying earnings this year and see no reason to change that forecast.

As explained for those that took the time to attend the annual meeting, its more difficult to sell units in multi level apartment complex's when you're part way through development of that block as not many people want to live in a construction zone.

I think the tone of the release reads well for the balance of the current year and I think my previous modelling is bang on the money. Current year PE is 17 at $7.50 and this for a company growing at about 25% so the PEG is just 0.68.
Company keeps doing what it says it will do and growth this year was clearly stated at the annual meeting to be somewhat lower than last year. Its still growing underlying earnings at close to double the rate RYM is. Development margins are clearly tracking strongly which underpins the strength of their business model going forward.

I think this is a highly credible and robust result. There will be SUM that can't understand that at present their model has changed slightly to be building more multi level apartments with the sales implications that temporarily has and others who understand the business better and can see the compelling valuation metrics for this well proven company operating with compelling demographic tailwinds. Disc: Very satisfied long term holder.

[iceman]

Profit forecast speaks for itself and yes we are on track to reach $100m underlying this year. I have been modelling about 25% uptick in underlying earnings this year and see no reason to change that forecast.

As explained for those that took the time to attend the annual meeting, its more difficult to sell units in multi level apartment complex's when you're part way through development of that block as not many people want to live in a construction zone.

I think the tone of the release reads well for the balance of the current year and I think my previous modelling is bang on the money. Current year PE is 17 at $7.50 and this for a company growing at about 25% so the PEG is just 0.68.
Company keeps doing what it says it will do and growth this year was clearly stated at the annual meeting to be somewhat lower than last year. Its still growing underlying earnings at close to double the rate RYM is. Development margins are clearly tracking strongly which underpins the strength of their business model going forward.

I think this is a highly credible and robust result. There will be SUM that can't understand that at present their model has changed slightly to be building more multi level apartments with the sales implications that temporarily has and others who understand the business better and can see the compelling valuation metrics for this well proven company operating with compelling demographic tailwinds. Disc: Very satisfied long term holder.

Good post Beagle that I agree with. Yes the sales growth is slowing somewhat which has been well signaled on here but the obvious increase in development margin is starting to really make a difference to the underlying profit.
But as winner and couta point out and Julian hints at in his comments, the property market may be slowing which may well affect us in the near future. But a company growing at 20-25% per annum is not to be sneezed at.
A happy holder.

[Ggcc]

Profit forecast speaks for itself and yes we are on track to reach $100m underlying this year. I have been modelling about 25% uptick in underlying earnings this year and see no reason to change that forecast.

As explained for those that took the time to attend the annual meeting, its more difficult to sell units in multi level apartment complex's when you're part way through development of that block as not many people want to live in a construction zone.

I think the tone of the release reads well for the balance of the current year and I think my previous modelling is bang on the money. Current year PE is 17 at $7.50 and this for a company growing at about 25% so the PEG is just 0.68.
Company keeps doing what it says it will do and growth this year was clearly stated at the annual meeting to be somewhat lower than last year. Its still growing underlying earnings at close to double the rate RYM is. Development margins are clearly tracking strongly which underpins the strength of their business model going forward.

I think this is a highly credible and robust result. There will be SUM that can't understand that at present their model has changed slightly to be building more multi level apartments with the sales implications that temporarily has and others who understand the business better and can see the compelling valuation metrics for this well proven company operating with compelling demographic tailwinds. Disc: Very satisfied long term holder.
Bang on the money Beagle. The bottom line is, there will be a deficit of units available in the coming future for the elderly as demand will outstrip supply. We want and need our elderly looked after, so thank goodness all these retirement villages are doing their best to grow as fast as possible.

[Beagle]

Good post Beagle that I agree with. Yes the sales growth is slowing somewhat which has been well signaled on here but the obvious increase in development margin is starting to really make a difference to the underlying profit.
But as winner and couta point out and Julian hints at in his comments, the property market may be slowing which may well affect us in the near future. But a company growing at 20-25% per annum is not to be sneezed at.
A happy holder.


Hi mate. In John Ryder's recent newsletter he noted that real estate is slowing more quickly in Australian eastern cities with notable weakness in Melbourne down 5% year or year. He's a very smart guy, far smarter that this old dog. He's neutral on real estate in N.Z. and negative on Australia. Implications for RYM expanding rapidly over there ?
Disc : Also own RYM and OCA as I believe that the demographic tailwinds in this sector are truly compelling. For what its worth I think on balance provincial N.Z. will do really well in the years ahead, Auckland possibly already at max affordability level although I did see a modest do-up 3 bedroom townhouse in Avondale the other day for just $599K...the issue is a lot of people don't want to roll their sleeves up and get stuck in with renovating and refurbishing and or don't have the time with both parents working long days to make ends meet.

[bull....]

Alot of the first crop of residents in the rymans and summersets etc will be dying now as evidenced by the trend up in resales so to maintain the slope of the bell curve we need more units built in the model and staggered over time so as the slope is always rising. a model which works until saturation , luckily thats many years away unless theres a war or illness and it strikes everyone down. after saturation the model will need to change.
make hay while the model works.

[winner69]

share price should shoot up today ...yes?

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/SUM/320621/282521.pdf

Yes it is .....market likes profit upgrades

[Joshuatree]

Shoot up, not quite but green always good to see.More the DOW being up 320 points and NZX first mkt to open today, 16 out of 20 indices up today .SUM up half a percent and well off highs in june . Less then 20,000 shares through so far.Steady as she goes.

[winner69]

Even though its a pretty sad chart I'll still post the updated one

New sales have not grown for 5 consecutuve quarters now ..... hopefully Julian raving on every announcement that the 'high levels of sales contracts and presales on homes which will be completed and delivered over the remainder of the year' will actually comne true one day

When the line goes up we all can start rejoicing again


Definitely new sales trending down ...BP it is an annual moving total ...rather like a MA365 line

[percy]

Have a Kiwi fruit first thing in the morning and it should stop you catching colds.
When you have a cold, try a mixture of Drambuie and whiskey.Repeat until such time you either stop caring or you have past out.It really works.
ps.25% figure is worth a thousand words.!

[Beagle]

Have a Kiwi fruit first thing in the morning and it should stop you catching colds.
When you have a cold, try a mixture of Drambuie and whiskey.Repeat until such time you either stop caring or you have past out.It really works.
ps.25% figure is worth a thousand words.!

LOL, I'm trying to turn over a new leaf and be less dogmatic these days but you obviously saw the post I deleted and I really appreciate your response which hits the nail directly on the head :) Mrs Beagle gone away for a few days with our granddaughter for the school holidays so I can get the appropriate cold and flu medications out now in plenty of volume LOL. I apologize in advance for any future incoherent posts this week :)

Media's take on it http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/dd740e56/summerset-says-first-half-underlying-profit-rose-as-much-as-26-on-stronger-development-margins.html

[Ggcc]

I do feel the share price has held up well for the day. I did expect it to drop a little, from what some posters were saying. Maybe they might drop a little later this week/month. Either way I am happy to sit and wait.

[value_investor]

Its an average announcement given the share price has really rallied from undervalued to fair value verging on overvalued.

Its at a forward PE of 16.9 which has this FY result already priced in (which doesn't come out until Feb 2019) unless investors buy in that the growth will keep going at a higher price. Either that or the new/resales that were supposed to pick up in 2H come to fruition and the share price keeps growing causing an updated guidance.

[moka]

These places are are claimed to be caring environments. An old lady hurts her leg and it is dressed. No body is interested enough or caring enough to follow it up. You shouldn’t need systems in place to make sure that this lady is cared for properly. It should happen naturally.

G on I would appreciate it if you could let me know how I can access the above report you mention. Thanks in advance.

https://www.health.govt.nz/your-health/services-and-support/health-care-services/services-older-people/rest-home-certification-and-audits
“Rest home certification and audits
If you or a family member is planning to move to a rest home – or is currently living in one – you’ll want to be sure it provides the best quality care possible.
All rest homes and aged residential care facilities are certified and audited to ensure they:


provide safe, appropriate care for their residents
meet the standards set out in the Health and Disability Services (Safety) Act 2001.


The Ministry publishes audit reports for all rest homes in our database of certified rest home providers (https://www.health.govt.nz/your-health/certified-providers/aged-care)

[Joshuatree]

i hear stuff all the time from people in the front line and its because of , minimum staff , fill in staff and a few staff that plain avoid some duties.
You have to wonder if that old lady wasn't even washed!

Thats useful stuff moka.We didn't have clue that info was even available when looking at care homes.

[Brain]

Thanks Moka - greatly appreciated

[bull....]

https://www.health.govt.nz/your-health/services-and-support/health-care-services/services-older-people/rest-home-certification-and-audits
“Rest home certification and audits
If you or a family member is planning to move to a rest home – or is currently living in one – you’ll want to be sure it provides the best quality care possible.
All rest homes and aged residential care facilities are certified and audited to ensure they:


provide safe, appropriate care for their residents
meet the standards set out in the Health and Disability Services (Safety) Act 2001.


The Ministry publishes audit reports for all rest homes in our database of certified rest home providers (https://www.health.govt.nz/your-health/certified-providers/aged-care)

handy piece of info , unfortunately most places probably know in advance a audit is coming and put on a good show. better to talk to people at the coalface

[Beagle]

Its an average announcement given the share price has really rallied from undervalued to fair value verging on overvalued.

Its at a forward PE of 16.9 which has this FY result already priced in (which doesn't come out until Feb 2019) unless investors buy in that the growth will keep going at a higher price. Either that or the new/resales that were supposed to pick up in 2H come to fruition and the share price keeps growing causing an updated guidance.


Shares have enjoyed a very good run from an incredibly undervalued $4.60 in November. I still see them at > $9 in a years time but the delta over $7.60 isn't huge so this one may not suit short term investors. The key to understanding the value on a current year PE of 17 is two fold
1. The market average PE is just north of 20 so this is well under market average
2. The growth rate at circa 25% is well and truly above market average and we have the long term demographic tailwinds supporting that growth going forward.
There are cheaper PE stocks on the NZX but are they growing at the same rate and is their growth sustained by long term demographics ?
Classic long term hold if you ask me, (and its certainly not expensive on a relative basis to the market or its peers considering this stocks track record of growth) but each to their own... For what its worth my view is there's SUM stocks, (like this and RYM to name just two) you just throw in the bottom draw for retirement and be very glad in the due course of time you did...

Food for thought. Is it really expensive when RYM, (which has consistently grown considerably slower ever since SUM listed 6 1/2 years ago) is on a forward PE of >25 ? I understand brand value and have a few RYM myself but the numbers suggest SUM is still good value and better value than RYM.

[couta1]

Yet RYM have just hit an all time high, perception is everything Mr Beagle. PS-Only a few % away now from reversion to the mean putting SUM back into the 50-60% band.

[Beagle]

759 / 1240 = 61.2%...I'm clinging on, (like a sick dog clinging on to its bone) to my theory that its the eps numbers that really count mate, (as a bean counter what other strategy would you possibly expect) :) but I do have insurance for a rainy day just in case I'm wrong, (SUM RYM shares) :)...not enough insurance for a trip to Auckland Islands though so you might have to let me off with a beer on the Queenstown slopes.

[couta1]

759 / 1240 = 61.2%...I'm clinging on, (like a sick dog clinging on to its bone) to my theory that its the eps numbers that really count mate, (as a bean counter what other strategy would you possibly expect) :) but I do have insurance for a rainy day just in case I'm wrong, (SUM RYM shares) :)...not enough insurance for a trip to Auckland Islands though so you might have to let me off with a beer on the Queenstown slopes. HaHa I like that creative accounting there mate, how about we use the RYM high and not just the SUM one, so now we have 759/1250 =60.72%. Anyway I'm also feeling a bit off colour so why argue over bone fragments.

[Beagle]

HaHa I like that creative accounting there mate, how about we use the RYM high and not just the SUM one, so now we have 759/1250 =60.72%. Anyway I'm also feeling a bit off colour so why argue over bone fragments.

I reckon you should have another look at the sums mate and get with the program. When you do you'll find 60-75% relativity is the new normal :)

[James108]

Couta1, while reversion to the mean is an important principle, if it always held then nothing would ever change over the long term!

The entropy of the universe is always increasing after all!

[Nasi Goreng]

Couta1, while reversion to the mean is an important principle, if it always held then nothing would ever change over the long term!

The entropy of the universe is always increasing after all!

That sounds pretty hippy man. But it got me thinking about Elliot Wave and Fibonacci... maybe the correct mean is 61.8% and we have been missing it all this time.

[couta1]

Couta1, while reversion to the mean is an important principle, if it always held then nothing would ever change over the long term!

The entropy of the universe is always increasing after all! It's also about the ratio between the companies so you can have both increase and reversion to the mean at the same time. Anyway winner and myself will be able to have a wee celebration once SUM gets back into that 50-60% band and Beagle will be packing his bags for a wee holiday.

[Beagle]

https://www.msn.com/en-nz/news/national/desperate-need-to-house-lonely-seniors-it’s-a-hidden-problem/ar-AAzZVM5?ocid=spartandhp

[Beagle]

Very, very sad to see such a high future proportion of over 65's are expected to be renters and lonely. https://www.msn.com/en-nz/news/national/desperate-need-to-house-lonely-seniors-it’s-a-hidden-problem/ar-AAzZVM5?ocid=spartandhp Perhaps SUM company will come up with "a basic solution renters package" as part of what they otherwise do ?

[iceman]

Very, very sad to see such a high future proportion of over 65's are expected to be renters and lonely. https://www.msn.com/en-nz/news/national/desperate-need-to-house-lonely-seniors-it’s-a-hidden-problem/ar-AAzZVM5?ocid=spartandhp Perhaps SUM company will come up with "a basic solution renters package" as part of what they otherwise do ?

Agree Beagle and they often end up in houses far exceeding their needs in size. There is far too little emphasis on this fact, when politicians discuss solutions to the "housing crisis". Much more should be done to try to move this part of society into more suitable and comfortable homes and freeing up larger houses for more needy smaller families.

[Ggcc]

https://www.noted.co.nz/money/property/cost-of-living-in-a-retirement-village/
Another interesting article.

[winner69]

https://www.noted.co.nz/money/property/cost-of-living-in-a-retirement-village/
Another interesting article.

Good eh ggcc

Love the phrase “farming the elderly” for profit.

Like may it continue and hopefully they can get even more productive at it and screw even more dollars out of them.

Oldies aren’t forced into a village .....and punters who think its evil investing in the sector just need to tell themselves they’re providing a public service that the government is happy they do.

[Ggcc]

Good eh ggcc

Love the phrase “farming the elderly” for profit.

Like may it continue and hopefully they can get even more productive at it and screw even more dollars out of them.

Oldies aren’t forced into a village .....and punters who think its evil investing in the sector just need to tell themselves they’re providing a public service that the government is happy they do.

I really sounds that this journalist find it disgusting that a business makes money. Does this person understand reputable retirement villages get you to see an independent lawyer to go through the process of getting a unit? New Zealand villages seem to want to be fair and transparent.

As you mentioned they are “providing a public service” and we all want the elderly well cared for. That costs money and someone has to do it.

I would like to see what people find excessive profits??? When nearly all the money is put back into expanding, to cover the shortfall of (cost affective) units necessary to care for the elderly.

[winner69]

I really sounds that this journalist find it disgusting that a business makes money. Does this person understand reputable retirement villages get you to see an independent lawyer to go through the process of getting a unit? New Zealand villages seem to want to be fair and transparent.

As you mentioned they are “providing a public service” and we all want the elderly well cared for. That costs money and someone has to do it.

I would like to see what people find excessive profits??? When nearly all the money is put back into expanding, to cover the shortfall of (cost affective) units necessary to care for the elderly.

Of course the profits are excessive ggcc ....otherwise the likes of you wouldn’t be investing in this social service

That’s the way the game is played

Need to be careful spellcheck changes ggcc to Gucci ...cool eh

[Ggcc]

Of course the profits are excessive ggcc ....otherwise the likes of you wouldn’t be investing in this social service

That’s the way the game is played

Need to be careful spellcheck changes ggcc to Gucci ...cool eh
Haha. Gucci.......

Of course I invest in this, but government legislation impacting their bottom line, thus slowing their growth could make me change my mind very quickly.

Who would the loser be in that scenario........

[winner69]

Haha. Gucci.......

Of course I invest in this, but government legislation impacting their bottom line, thus slowing their growth could make me change my mind very quickly.

Who would the loser be in that scenario........

...obviously not you eh ggcc

[Ggcc]

...obviously not you eh ggcc
I think I would definitely lose in that scenario as well as many others including the elderly.

[Blue Skies]

Just as a bit of balance to that article, my in-laws elderly parents sold their average AKL home & moved to SUM Hawkes Bay & they love it. It's taken away a lot of the worries & been the perfect answer to what otherwise would have been a pretty bleak anxious & lonely final period of their lives with diminishing health & energy, mobility & finances. There's a good community,lots of social engagement & social activities for those who want it, warm safe clean environment, nice gardens, healthy meal options if wanted, & importantly help & support with the almost inevitable frailty & chronic illnesses which happen with advancing age. The children are not worried about loosing some of the inheritance, they would prefer to see their parents still semi independent & happy, & not have to worry about them all the time.
With the high density units of retirement villages freeing up housing & an approaching tidal wave of seniors & the potential burden that places on the public health system, I think the govt would be extremely cautious around policy changes which would disadvantage private retirement villages.

[Ggcc]

Just as a bit of balance to that article, my in-laws elderly parents sold their average AKL home & moved to SUM Hawkes Bay & they love it. It's taken away a lot of the worries & been the perfect answer to what otherwise would have been a pretty bleak anxious & lonely final period of their lives with diminishing health & energy, mobility & finances. There's a good community,lots of social engagement & social activities for those who want it, warm safe clean environment, nice gardens, healthy meal options if wanted, & importantly help & support with the almost inevitable frailty & chronic illnesses which happen with advancing age. The children are not worried about loosing some of the inheritance, they would prefer to see their parents still semi independent & happy, & not have to worry about them all the time.
With the high density units of retirement villages freeing up housing & an approaching tidal wave of seniors & the potential burden that places on the public health system, I think the govt would be extremely cautious around policy changes which would disadvantage private retirement villages.

Thank you for your positive story and feedback. Nice to hear it.

[iceman]

Just as a bit of balance to that article, my in-laws elderly parents sold their average AKL home & moved to SUM Hawkes Bay & they love it. It's taken away a lot of the worries & been the perfect answer to what otherwise would have been a pretty bleak anxious & lonely final period of their lives with diminishing health & energy, mobility & finances. There's a good community,lots of social engagement & social activities for those who want it, warm safe clean environment, nice gardens, healthy meal options if wanted, & importantly help & support with the almost inevitable frailty & chronic illnesses which happen with advancing age. The children are not worried about loosing some of the inheritance, they would prefer to see their parents still semi independent & happy, & not have to worry about them all the time.
With the high density units of retirement villages freeing up housing & an approaching tidal wave of seniors & the potential burden that places on the public health system, I think the govt would be extremely cautious around policy changes which would disadvantage private retirement villages.

Always good to bring this up again on this thread. A good post. After all, this is the main reason people go into retirement villages, totally regardless of what the property market is doing at the time !

[dobby41]

I really sounds that this journalist find it disgusting that a business makes money. Does this person understand reputable retirement villages get you to see an independent lawyer to go through the process of getting a unit? New Zealand villages seem to want to be fair and transparent.

As you mentioned they are “providing a public service” and we all want the elderly well cared for. That costs money and someone has to do it.

I would like to see what people find excessive profits??? When nearly all the money is put back into expanding, to cover the shortfall of (cost affective) units necessary to care for the elderly.
I actually thought it was a well written article and laid it out the way it is.
Was there anything in there that wasn't true?

[dobby41]

Just as a bit of balance to that article, my in-laws elderly parents sold their average AKL home & moved to SUM Hawkes Bay & they love it.

A bit of balance?
I don't think the article said that the people in the villages didn't love it.
The article was more talking about the financial model than the environment.
I think that so long as you don't have to move (sell) before you die it is fine.
But if you need to sell and move you wouldn't be able to - make sure the place you move into is the right one as you probably won't get another chance.

[Beagle]

I actually thought it was a well written article and laid it out the way it is.
Was there anything in there that wasn't true?

Some of it was factually incorrect and then there's the overall bias. Claiming that the refurbishment costs were on top of the 20-30% retained portion of the original purchase price is something I have never heard of before (but it was written in such a way as to give an out in as much as it didn't say they all did that) so one might. Diana had a definite bias in writing that article in my view. It came across in her overall tome and innuendo that by implication these companies are all greedy capitalist money-makers and by implication care standards are secondary to that.

Summerset's satisfaction survey was at a record 96% last year. The vast majority of people going into a retirement home know full well its not a great thing from an investment point of view but also know that that's how the company is able to pay for the establishment of all the facilities. The real truth is that many of the residents simply want to enjoy a happy retirement and in freeing up a couple of hundred thousand dollars they're also significantly enhancing their lifestyle. Why shouldn't they have a happy retirement, its their money !! Last time I checked none of these companies had a gun to anyone's head making them move in there...

[Ggcc]

Some of it was factually incorrect and then there's the overall bias. Claiming that the refurbishment costs were on top of the 20-30% retained portion of the original purchase price is something I have never heard of before (but it was written in such a way as to give an out in as much as it didn't say they all did that) so one might. Diana had a definite bias in writing that article in my view. It came across in her overall tome and innuendo that by implication these companies are all greedy capitalist money-makers and by implication care standards are secondary to that.

Summerset's satisfaction survey was at a record 96% last year. The vast majority of people going into a retirement home know full well its not a great thing from an investment point of view but also know that that's how the company is able to pay for all the establishment of all the facilities. The real truth is that many of the residents simply want to enjoy a happy retirement and in freeing up a couple of hundred thousand dollars they're also significantly enhancing their lifestyle. Why shouldn't they have a happy retirement, its their money !!
Thank you I was just thinking of the perfect response but you nailed it.

[dobby41]

Why shouldn't they have a happy retirement, its their money !! Last time I checked none of these companies had a gun to anyone's head making them move in there...

Absolutely true.
I wonder what would happen if there was a profit (capital gain) share option?

[Beagle]

Absolutely true.
I wonder what would happen if there was a profit (capital gain) share option?

You could make the case there already is. If my Mum had of invested the capital she released when she moved into a retirement village 9 years ago into RYM shares for example, she'd have done very nicely indeed. I think Diana deliberately and disingenuously minimized the importance to most folk that this capital release through the natural down-sizing of accommodation confers. In many cases the retirement unit is about 60-75% of the value of the house sold but this capital release is really important to the average resident of about 80 who's moving into a retirement village. Often this is the most liquid amount of money people have had in their entire life and they're able to have a world trip and a new car while they're still able to enjoy them, things that often they've never been able to do in their lives before. Other times the capital is used for elective surgery so the pain of having to wait on a long waiting list is eliminated. Often the capital is invested and the proceeds used to minimize the weekly fee so the elderly person is often staying there free of any weekly fee or at a deeply discounted level.

[dobby41]

You could make the case there already is. If my Mum had of invested the capital she released when she moved into a retirement village 9 years ago into RYM shares for example, she'd have done very nicely indeed. I think Diana deliberately and disingenuously minimized the importance to most folk that this capital release through the natural down-sizing of accommodation confers. In many cases the retirement unit is about 60-75% of the value of the house sold but this capital release is really important to the average resident of about 80 who's moving into a retirement village. Often this is the most liquid amount of money people have had in their entire life and they're able to have a world trip and a new car while they're still able to enjoy them, things that often they've never been able to do in their lives before. Other times the capital is used for elective surgery so the pain of having to wait on a long waiting list is eliminated. Often the capital is invested and the proceeds used to minimize the weekly fee so the elderly person is often staying there free of any weekly fee or at a deeply discounted level.
My Mum and Dad got no capital release - basically sold their house and paid it all to the village.
Fine by me - I wanted them to do it as it was the right thing to do (and I don't expect or need an inheritance).
So Mum pays fees etc. Your use case is not, by any means, universal.

I brought Ryman many years ago (and the others since) because I could see that farming the elderly would be very profitable.
I may not agree totally with the business model but have done very well out of it.
If you can't beat them, join them!

[Beagle]

"If got to be good enough for Mum" is the fundamental basis upon which RYM and SUM were established. Some people have forgotten or have never been aware of (including Diana Clement) what sort of facilities were around before RYM and others started building nice ones. I maintain the elderly have a very valuable choice now that they previously didn't have. Choices are always a good thing especially when they dramatically improve one's lifestyle. Whether this amounts to "farming the elderly" as Diana Clement puts it or providing a wonderful lifestyle retirement option for people who choose to enjoy it while giving a good commercial return to investors, is the debate that will be enduring. There will always be a small percentage of kids that are annoyed that they will be inheriting less but I choose to believe that most are happy that their parents are happy because I know I am and its on this basis that I have no moral qualms whatsoever about being an investor in the retirement sector.
Nobody has a gun to anyone's head making them move in and prospective residents face a mandatory requirement to take independent professional advice before choosing, you can't get fairer than that.

[percy]

People forget how bad the industry was when it was run by not for profit organisations.
The dark ages.

[Beagle]

People forget how bad the industry was when it was run by not for profit organisations.
The dark ages.
Exactly Percy...or like some reporters they have no idea in the first place. About this time last year I spent half a day at the Summerset Hobsonville village. Everyone I met there seemed very contented and there was a very good atmosphere about the place.

[dobby41]

I maintain the elderly have a very valuable choice now that they previously didn't have. Choices are always a good thing especially when they dramatically improve one's lifestyle.
.
.
Nobody has a gun to anyone's head making them move in and prospective residents face a mandatory requirement to take independent professional advice before choosing, you can't get fairer than that.
I just think it would be interesting to see what happens if there are other choices - like the Australian one where the elderly share some of the future gain.
I'm not saying that the villages and the contracts are bad but I do wonder if the contracts could be better.

Enough with the guns - I get it!

[Beagle]

I just think it would be interesting to see what happens if there are other choices - like the Australian one where the elderly share some of the future gain.
I'm not saying that the villages and the contracts are bad but I do wonder if the contracts could be better.

Enough with the guns - I get it!

No guns just a good debate mate. I would think some retirement villages wouldn't mind sharing the capital gain if retiree's shared the initial capex cost of establishing all the common area's and facilities as well as the cost of maintaining them. Bottom line is SUM make nothing from running their villages and if it weren't for the current model they wouldn't be able to afford all the lovely village facilities your mother and mine enjoy. This is the inconvenient truth that Diana Clement rather conveniently overlooks. 96% satisfaction rate speaks for itself. https://www.summerset.co.nz/living-at-summerset/facilities-and-activities/

[winner69]

Julian will be pleased the property market still chugging away nicely
http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/56913006/nz-residential-property-sales-dip-in-june-as-winter-chills-affordable-housing-turnover.html?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=NZ%20residential%20property%20sales%2 0dip%20in%20June%20as%20winter%20chills%20affordab le%20housing%20turnover&utm_content=NZ%20residential%20property%20sales%20 dip%20in%20June%20as%20winter%20chills%20affordabl e%20housing%20turnover+CID_aba56286924eea94cda0b44 7d7511eaa&utm_source=Email%20marketing%20software&utm_term=httpwwwsharechatconzarticle56913006nz-residential-property-sales-dip-in-june-as-winter-chills-affordable-housing-turnoverhtml

Will keep the development margins up and will be making a bit more on resales will this continues

Beagles $100m plus for F19 is now $100m plus

Good for the moment Orr keeping the OCR down and even hinting at cuts ....but we’ll suffer big time in a year or two when he realises he has been way too ‘cautious’

[Beagle]

$100m underlying profit is looking pretty comfortable. Cost of construction, the level of new migrants and low interest rates are all supportive factors medium term and then there's the long term demographic trends which we all know so well. I for one am not worried at all if they hit the go slow button on Australian expansion.
Melbourne prices down year on year 5%. I am greatly encouraged by recent disclosure of healthy development margins as I thought after last year's ripper development margin expansion they might have come under pressure a little. Looks like the development team at SUM are further refining their strategies which augers very well indeed for the long term.

[oldtech]

Summerset's application to build a seven-storey, 344-unit retirement village on a 2.6ha site in St Johns, Auckland has been declined.

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12098002

According to the article, the height limit is three storeys. I wonder if Summerset will try to get a lower village through - say four or five storeys? Or would the numbers be uneconomical?

*Edit: Or they may appeal the decision I suppose

[LAC]

Summerset's application to build a seven-storey, 344-unit retirement village on a 2.6ha site in St Johns, Auckland has been declined.

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12098002

According to the article, the height limit is three storeys. I wonder if Summerset will try to get a lower village through - say four or five storeys? Or would the numbers be uneconomical?

*Edit: Or they may appeal the decision I suppose

Oh damn, someone must have gotten the requirements of the area before wanting to go with 7 stories....

[Ggcc]

Oh damn, someone must have gotten the requirements of the area before wanting to go with 7 stories....
I agree. It sounds a little weird to ask consent for a seven story build, when the height restriction is three stories....

[Patient Panda]

Oh damn, someone must have gotten the requirements of the area before wanting to go with 7 stories....


They might be trying to use the old contrast effec. Limit of 3, apply for 7 knowing it’ll get refused and get accepted with 4 and makes you look very reasonable and accomodating coming all the way down from 7. Just a possibility.


as a young spring chicken I would hate living in a high rise building and I know everyone is different but I’m highly surprised those much older than me most likely with health or mobility issues would be keen on them, even with decent elevators.

[BlackPeter]

Summerset's application to build a seven-storey, 344-unit retirement village on a 2.6ha site in St Johns, Auckland has been declined.

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12098002

According to the article, the height limit is three storeys. I wonder if Summerset will try to get a lower village through - say four or five storeys? Or would the numbers be uneconomical?

*Edit: Or they may appeal the decision I suppose

Interestingly - the supplied picture shows only a five (not a seven, as reported) storey building ...

Maybe somebody involved in the story can only count to two and mixes up the higher numbers ;D;

[Timesurfer]

Interestingly - the supplied picture shows only a five (not a seven, as reported) storey building ...

Maybe somebody involved in the story can only count to two and mixes up the higher numbers ;D;

The other two could be in the basement for those that want affordable retirement housing?

[Beagle]

Last nights news contained a clip of the expansion of robots into everyday life. Unfortunately the example they used which I found a little disturbing was of a talking robot being used at a Summerset village to lead an exercise class. Surely they can afford to pay a person to do this for goodness sake. Not impressed.

[oldtech]

Interestingly - the supplied picture shows only a five (not a seven, as reported) storey building ...

Maybe somebody involved in the story can only count to two and mixes up the higher numbers ;D;

NZ Herald may have mixed up the pictures ... it would not be the first time :mellow:

[Blue Skies]

Last nights news contained a clip of the expansion of robots into everyday life. Unfortunately the example they used which I found a little disturbing was of a talking robot being used at a Summerset village to lead an exercise class. Surely they can afford to pay a person to do this for goodness sake. Not impressed.

Couldn't agree more. I remember visiting my father in law who had dementia in a very depressing rest home years ago in the middle of an exercise class ( before we were able to find a much better place for him). The thought of a robot running an exercise class for some of our most vulnerable is dystopian. What our elderly need more of is, human interaction, engagement, warmth, they're not just commodities.

[couta1]

Couldn't agree more. I remember visiting my father in law who had dementia in a very depressing rest home years ago in the middle of an exercise class ( before we were able to find a much better place for him). The thought of a robot running an exercise class for some of our most vulnerable is dystopian. What our elderly need more of is, human interaction, engagement, warmth, they're not just commodities. Exactly, SUM have let the team down here.

[BlackPeter]

STOP the beat-up ... Shareprice started already to drop. Need to sell out fast ;);

But seriously - while I haven't seen the report - I can't really imagine that this was supposed to show the future for SUM's age care.

And - if you think about it ... there is a lot of work in age care which could be taken over by robots only to relieve human carers and allow them to spend more quality time with their patients. I am thinking of e.g. cleaning, food preparation, moving patients (obviously all overseen by humans). Looking at the last point (moving patients) - there are currently hardly any nurses or age care workers without back problems (due to shifting too heavy patients). Wouldn't it be wonderful to have robots helping them with this activity?

True - not sure, whether fitness trainer is one of these positions where I would see a robot an ideal supporter, but than - its probably a good demonstration of a robots capability and mobility. As well - the robot could go through the program for the group while a human trainer would have than more time to focus on individual issues with the exercises. So - while potentially not the best example ... I can see potential benefits - and could take the whole thing with a bit of humor - can't you?

[winner69]

STOP the beat-up ... Shareprice started already to drop. Need to sell out fast ;);

But seriously - while I haven't seen the report - I can't really imagine that this was supposed to show the future for SUM's age care.

And - if you think about it ... there is a lot of work in age care which could be taken over by robots only to relieve human carers and allow them to spend more quality time with their patients. I am thinking of e.g. cleaning, food preparation, moving patients (obviously all overseen by humans). Looking at the last point (moving patients) - there are currently hardly any nurses or age care workers without back problems (due to shifting too heavy patients). Wouldn't it be wonderful to have robots helping them with this activity?

True - not sure, whether fitness trainer is one of these positions where I would see a robot an ideal supporter, but than - its probably a good demonstration of a robots capability and mobility. As well - the robot could go through the program for the group while a human trainer would have than more time to focus on individual issues with the exercises. So - while potentially not the best example ... I can see potential benefits - and could take the whole thing with a bit of humor - can't you?

As long as they aren’t imported robots ...got to keep immigration numbers down

[couta1]

Make no mistake, this is all about saving on staff and saving money, good for shareholders, crap for residents. SUM already have less activities staff than RYM and OCA.

[Patient Panda]

Yes easy to save a few dollars in the short term. In the long term I always think creating most vaalue for residents is whats most important.

Theres a great speech by Jack Ma the CEO and founder of ali baba that I believe holds a lot of truth. He says the best thing for shareholders is to put your customers first, employees second and shareholders third. Ultimately this creates the largest net value for everyone.

[Beagle]

So they program a robot to run exercise classes...(and yes from the clip on telly last night people by and large seemed amused with the novelty of it) but who is there to help the old folks when they pull a muscle working out to the exercise regime ? Have we all forgotten the movie I Robot already ? Did you know there is a company listed in the U.S. called I Robot ?

With the rise and rise of A.I. I think all this leads to a cold and more de-humanized environment for our vulnerable elderly. I shudder to think, (if I make it into my late 80's) what the future of late stage "care" will be in 30 years time....maybe everything will be done by robots by then and if you don't do as you're told :eek2:

[winner69]

......and they’ll have a robot as an accountant

Days of suburban accountants numbered?

https://istart.co.nz/nz-opinion-article/robot-accountants-have-arrived-help-office/

[Beagle]

Thankfully I'll probably be retired by the time this kicks into top gear.

[Yoda]

http://youtu.be/cFvGAL9tesM
how about these robots ?

[Beagle]

http://youtu.be/cFvGAL9tesM
how about these robots ?

Couta1 would know best but as far as I know some dementia wards have regular pet therapy sessions with real pets. I know of one woman who volunteers a lot of her time with her dog visiting old folks homes. Only certain types of dogs have the temperament for it though. These kids toys look like a fourth rate alternative.

[dobby41]

These kids toys look like a fourth rate alternative.

The patients seemed really happy and they get one each (rather than one to go around) so maybe not 4th rate.
The proof of the pudding is in the eating, remember the guy started them by accident really.

[Beagle]

The patients seemed really happy and they get one each (rather than one to go around) so maybe not 4th rate.
The proof of the pudding is in the eating, remember the guy started them by accident really.

Perhaps you have a good point. At a certain point they really are "away with the fairies" so anything that makes them happy is quite probably a good thing.

[Timesurfer]

That was rather a large red cliff to end the week on - I do hope none of the residents wandered off it in their fairie walking.

[Ggcc]

That was rather a large red cliff to end the week on - I do hope none of the residents wandered off it in their fairie walking.
Napier has an eight year waiting list for a Summerset unit (very sad) I have been told by a neighbour enquiring. I don’t know if that includes the new Summerset..As many said a tsunami of elderly needing accommodation in this part of the country....... Longterm you cannot lose in these sort of businesses. I would not worry about the lows on this share unless you need your money in a hurry.

[Beagle]

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/321770

[BlackPeter]

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/321770

Sounds good, doesn't it? Though on track to sell 450 (new) units would sound still better :):

[Beagle]

Sounds good, doesn't it? Though on track to sell 450 (new) units would sound still better :):

Build it and they will come :)

[macduffy]

I see that Boulcott still gets a mention as a "greenfields site". I wonder what the current state of play is there?

[value_investor]

HY results coming soon, I have a few questions on this one at the moment in terms of buying more of a position. I already have a large position. It went from being very undervalued late last year to now perhaps having a 'fair' valuation for the history of its own company bordering on over valued.

The sales/resale numbers are very weak and infact down on last year so far so I'm assuming development margins are staying strong or getting stronger. On a forward PE basis based on the low end on the guidance normalised for the whole year (21% growth in underlying earnings), its looking at about an 18. I know historically, the 2H results are weighed higher but being conservative we revert back to this range imo forward PE of 16-18 which is still very good buying. Is it better buying than OCA though?

I also wonder what Ryman has done to warrant such a high PE vs the rest of the market. Will we see SUM over the next few years because valued on such a high regard? From what I know RYM is a darling with the insto's.

[winner69]

HY results coming soon, I have a few questions on this one at the moment in terms of buying more of a position. I already have a large position. It went from being very undervalued late last year to now perhaps having a 'fair' valuation for the history of its own company bordering on over valued.

The sales/resale numbers are very weak and infact down on last year so far so I'm assuming development margins are staying strong or getting stronger. On a forward PE basis based on the low end on the guidance normalised for the whole year (21% growth in underlying earnings), its looking at about an 18. I know historically, the 2H results are weighed higher but being conservative we revert back to this range imo forward PE of 16-18 which is still very good buying. Is it better buying than OCA though?

I also wonder what Ryman has done to warrant such a high PE vs the rest of the market. Will we see SUM over the next few years because valued on such a high regard? From what I know RYM is a darling with the insto's.

Value - I think you answered you own questions

[value_investor]

Value - I think you answered you own questions

I think either of those 3 long term will do well, just the one that will end up being top % gain wise will be interesting in 10 years time

[macduffy]

I think either of those 3 long term will do well, just the one that will end up being top % gain wise will be interesting in 10 years time

And that's why Ryman is rated comparatively higher - it has the longterm success on the board!

[Timesurfer]

And that's why Ryman is rated comparatively higher - it has the longterm success on the board!

Peaked early in the boomer bubble - leaving room for SUM underdogs to come through and take the cake?

[couta1]

Peaked early in the boomer bubble - leaving room for SUM underdogs to come through and take the cake? HaHa, RYM are no closer to peaking than SUM others.

[winner69]

STUNNING ...STAGGERING ....Half year result

Underlying profit up 27% WOW

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/SUM/322138/284408.pdf


better rave about underlying profit because real profits are down and underlying profit is a far better measure of operational performance anyway

[winner69]

Beat guidance too ...that’s good

[winner69]

t_j ........please note gearing down to 30%

[Beagle]

STUNNING ...STAGGERING ....Half year result

Underlying profit up 27% WOW

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/SUM/322138/284408.pdf


better rave about underlying profit because real profits are down and underlying profit is a far better measure of operational performance anywayI know you don't believe that but I do.

Very solid result. Development margin is absolutely stunning. Noted their target build rate rises to 600 units per annum over the next 2-3 years. Also noted this half's expenses include project related matters that may not be repeating.

I have raised my underlying profit estimate for the year to 31 March 2018 to $105 - $110m. This is off the back of their stunning development margin and the heavily weighted delivery of new units to the second half. At the mid point that represents underlying profit of $107.5m and 47.8 cps.

Choose whatever PE you believe in taking into account their track record of CAGR of 45% per annum in underlying profit since listing. I estimate current year growth in underlying earnings at approx. 30%. I remain with a price target of ~ $9 - $9.50 by mid 2019.

I am pleased they are treading very cautiously in Australia.

I reckon SUM people that think SUM is overpriced should have another look at their SUM's...

[trader_jackson]

t_j ........please note gearing down to 30%

Winner but but NPAT down... I thought that was the one you (only) looked at?

[winner69]

Winner but but NPAT down... I thought that was the one you (only) looked at?

Yes down it is ......and the underlying reasons will also impact others in the sector in due course.

If I was ramping I’d say that after a week 90% reported increase in H118 something would have to give this year on a comparative basis.

[Beagle]

33% development margin.....WOW...was just a few years ago and it was only half that. This shows the development team at SUM are really firing on all cylinders.

[winner69]

33% development margin.....WOW...was just a few years ago and it was only half that. This shows the development team at SUM are really firing on all cylinders.

Sounds like margins are going to revert to the mean ...great term that eh

 Over the medium to long term we expect margins at levels more consistent with the last few years’ performance

But we won’t see the impact of that for a while so no worries in the short term

[Beagle]

Sounds like margins are going to revert to the mean ...great term that eh

 Over the medium to long term we expect margins at levels more consistent with the last few years’ performance

But we won’t see the impact of that for a while so no worries in the short term

Conservative... I like it. They have consistently surprised to the upside with development margins. I drilled senior management and directors about development trends at the annual meeting and they were all conservative saying they didn't expect any further gains from 28%. Build target growing to 600 units over the next couple of years, (assuming they don't expand into Australia). SUM stocks just make good common sense to stick in the bottom drawer and let compound growth in underlying earnings do its thing. SUM is shaping up as a classic under promise and over deliver stock. Happy holder and added a few more this morning.

http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/27d11e43/summerset-notes-flattening-property-market-as-earnings-rise-27.html

A few years ago at the annual meeting when they raised their development margin from 15 to 17% Julian Cook played down the scope of increasing it beyond 17%.
Its actually the CFO Scott that sets the prices of new units at SUM villages. He's a good solid numbers man and really knows his stuff.

[MauroNZ]

Conservative... I like it. They have consistently surprised to the upside with development margins. I drilled senior management and directors about development trends at the annual meeting and they were all conservative saying they didn't expect any further gains from 28%. Build target growing to 600 units over the next couple of years, (assuming they don't expand into Australia). SUM stocks just make good common sense to stick in the bottom drawer and let compound growth in underlying earnings do its thing. SUM is shaping up as a classic under promise and over deliver stock. Happy holder and added a few more this morning.

http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/27d11e43/summerset-notes-flattening-property-market-as-earnings-rise-27.html

A few years ago at the annual meeting when they raised their development margin from 15 to 17% Julian Cook played down the scope of increasing it beyond 17%.
Its actually the CFO Scott that sets the prices of new units at SUM villages. He's a good solid numbers man and really knows his stuff.

Thanks Beagle, nice post. So do you still consider a fair value the current range of share prices?.

[Beagle]

Thanks Beagle, nice post. So do you still consider a fair value the current range of share prices?.

I think its very sound value at the current price. SUM have built a highly credible track record of growth since listing over 6 1/2 years ago. The company is very well governed by a very capable board and Julian and Scott are driven men determined to succeed.

[Patient Panda]

Thats a phenomenal development margin. Another great result

[oldtech]

And yet their reward is the share price heading south. The market proves itself to be irrational yet again ...

[trader_jackson]

And yet their reward is the share price heading south. The market proves itself to be irrational yet again ...

This time is different... I don't think it is too irrational
Holding up pretty well really

[Beagle]

And yet their reward is the share price heading south. The market proves itself to be irrational yet again ...

I suspect the market is misinterpreting the future development margin guidance. All I think Julian is doing is saying the 33% is a bit unusual and he is giving analysts a heads-up not to model that or some higher figure into their DCF valuations. Anything in the late 20's % per annum and the increased build rate for FY19, 20 and beyond is going to give excellent growth going forward. I remain of the view that it is illogical that one of the very fastest growing companies on the NZX with a well proven track record should trade at a material discount to the market average PE. In the medium term I expect this illogical situation will not prevail and long term holders will continue to do very well.

[Ggcc]

Interesting article

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12106724

Great result for me and a great longterm hold

[Beagle]

Interesting article

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12106724

Great result for me and a great longterm hold

Huge potential over there, none of which is being priced in by the market.

[Ggcc]

Huge potential over there, none of which is being priced in by the market.

Interesting about the lack of staffing in the retirement sector in general due to previous government allowing fewer overseas people into the sector.... Are kiwis just no good in this sector? Lack of, or lower amount of empathy? I have found that kiwis in general could improve a lot on their work ethics, but I have no idea in the retirement sector.

[trader_jackson]

I suspect the market is misinterpreting the future development margin guidance. All I think Julian is doing is saying the 33% is a bit unusual and he is giving analysts a heads-up not to model that or some higher figure into their DCF valuations. Anything in the late 20's % per annum and the increased build rate for FY19, 20 and beyond is going to give excellent growth going forward. I remain of the view that it is illogical that one of the very fastest growing companies on the NZX with a well proven track record should trade at a material discount to the market average PE. In the medium term I expect this illogical situation will not prevail and long term holders will continue to do very well.

Long term holders will continue to do well... just maybe not as well as previous years - game changes if they do expand into aussie successfully, just doesn't help that houses prices are definitely going down in aussie.
ARV had 43% margin in 1H18

[bull....]

Summerset Group Holdings said a flatter property market is providing smaller valuation gains for the retirement village operator and developer.

http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/BU1808/S00425/summerset-notes-flattening-property-market-as-earnings-rise.htm

[winner69]

Long term holders will continue to do well... just maybe not as well as previous years - game changes if they do expand into aussie successfully, just doesn't help that houses prices are definitely going down in aussie.
ARV had 43% margin in 1H18

Wow 43% Margin — incredible

But how did they manage that when full year Development Margin was only 19%?

[trader_jackson]

Wow 43% Margin — incredible

But how did they manage that when full year Development Margin was only 19%?

Not sure, like sum other companies, they mentioned that woulnd't be sustainable (or words to that effect)... I would hate to think if sum other companies dropped that much, or (given sum other track records) dropped even a small fraction of that much.

And while you mention it, Wowee 19% margin for a dog that is more focused on care than development and priced at barely 1.1x NTA as a result (was 1.0 something until recently)... and the smart guys at sum other companies (a few years back) were getting excited when it got to 17% (and their focus was virtually only on development - so much so that their care division was and still is subsidised by their
developments...)

[Beagle]

SUM companies have worked very hard to get steadily increasing development margins every year for many years now while others might fluke it from time to time...like I said every dog has its day...

[winner69]

Not sure, like sum other companies, they mentioned that woulnd't be sustainable (or words to that effect)... I would hate to think if sum other companies dropped that much, or (given sum other track records) dropped even a small fraction of that much.

And while you mention it, Wowee 19% margin for a dog that is more focused on care than development and priced at barely 1.1x NTA as a result (was 1.0 something until recently)... and the smart guys at sum other companies (a few years back) were getting excited when it got to 17% (and their focus was virtually only on development - so much so that their care division was and still is subsidised by their
developments...)

Sussed it mate ...that H118 dev margin of 43% was from 3 sales ....something to be proud off eh

H218 and FY dev margin was 19% ......on FY sales of 79 new units

What was SUMs margin again? And they were both playing in the same property market.

You were a bit naughty skiting about that 43% margin eh

Have you ever considered that being more care orientated means ARV is less ‘exciting’ and will be valued as such by the market.

[trader_jackson]

Sussed it mate ...that H118 dev margin of 43% was from 3 sales ....something to be proud off eh

H218 and FY dev margin was 19% ......on FY sales of 79 new units

What was SUMs margin again? And they were both playing in the same property market.

You were a bit naughty skiting about that 43% margin eh

Have you ever considered that being more care orientated means ARV is less ‘exciting’ and will be valued as such by the market.

ARV and even OCA are far less exciting... that is why sum others are valued waay higher on sum if not most ratios (eg Price to NTA)... what worries me is that there doesn't seem to be too many excited people on this thread today either... yet for sum operators it is that excitement of 40%+ NPAT AND Underlying profit growth since listing that has propelled the share price so high.
But NPAT nor underlying profit hit close to 40% in 1H18

[Patient Panda]

Interesting about the lack of staffing in the retirement sector in general due to previous government allowing fewer overseas people into the sector.... Are kiwis just no good in this sector? Lack of, or lower amount of empathy? I have found that kiwis in general could improve a lot on their work ethics, but I have no idea in the retirement sector.

it has nothing to do with work ethic...

it has to do with most retirement operators including SUM paying mcdonalds wages for more demanding work. Would you really be interested in doing it yourself? Lifting heavy old people and helping them bathe for more or less min wage.

Kiwis are mostly going to be looking at more attractive jobs regardless of their level of empathy. Foreigners do it to get their visa sponsored.

i think getting good quality employees is going to continue to become more difficult for SUM with increased competition sector wide and a govt crackdown on immigration. They’re at least improving employee benefits slightly but I think they’re going to need more carrots than that.Wouldn’t be surprised to see more horror story news articles in future similar to the couple we’ve seen lately.

At least they have some great development margins

[Ggcc]

it has nothing to do with work ethic...

it has to do with most retirement operators including SUM paying mcdonalds wages for more demanding work. Would you really be interested in doing it yourself? Lifting heavy old people and helping them bathe for more or less min wage.

Kiwis are mostly going to be looking at more attractive jobs regardless of their level of empathy. Foreigners do it to get their visa sponsored.

i think getting good quality employees is going to continue to become more difficult for SUM with increased competition sector wide and a govt crackdown on immigration. They’re at least improving employee benefits slightly but I think they’re going to need more carrots than that.Wouldn’t be surprised to see more horror story news articles in future similar to the couple we’ve seen lately.

At least they have some great development margins
Have you forgotten that all caregivers have had wage increases passed on through government legislation? $22-27 per hour I think is about correct. Not $16.50 per hour. Sorry but that is not peanut money... The job is difficult, but every job has its problems.

I could not do it as it does not interest me to do that work, but the money is enough for me to live off

[Patient Panda]

Yes new min has become $19 an hour https://www.health.govt.nz/new-zealand-health-system/pay-equity-settlements/care-and-support-workers-pay-equity-settlement

I have not checked but believe sum pay the min.

Govt sector subsidisation should ammeliorate things a bit but the retirement operaters are still going to be scrapping it out for the best ones.

[couta1]

Yes new min has become $19 an hour https://www.health.govt.nz/new-zealand-health-system/pay-equity-settlements/care-and-support-workers-pay-equity-settlement

I have not checked but believe sum pay the min.

Govt sector subsidisation should ammeliorate things a bit but the retirement operaters are still going to be scrapping it out for the best ones. $19 is for a newbie caregiver with no experience or qualification, currently those with more experience are on up to $23.50 and this includes SUM workers, the rate will rise to $27 over the next three years.Those with a heart for the job and love for the elderly do well, unfortunately a lot of kiwi job seekers don't fit that criteria, many would rather sit on the benefit system at the end of the day.

[Patient Panda]

$19 is for a newbie caregiver with no experience or qualification, currently those with more experience are on up to $23.50 and this includes SUM workers, the rate will rise to $27 over the next three years.Those with a heart for the job and love for the elderly do well, unfortunately a lot of kiwi job seekers don't fit that criteria, many would rather sit on the benefit system at the end of the day.


I stand corrected.

very interesting thanks guys

[davflaws]

a lot of kiwi job seekers don't fit that criteria, many would rather sit on the benefit system at the end of the day.
I have been a counsellor, EAP provider, and employment advocate for more than 40 years. Of the thousands of people I have dealt with during this time I have met perhaps a dozen who preferred life on a benefit rather than productive work. I think you are stereotyping and/or your prejudices are showing.

[minimoke]

I have been a counsellor, EAP provider, and employment advocate for more than 40 years. Of the thousands of people I have dealt with during this time I have met perhaps a dozen who preferred life on a benefit rather than productive work. I think you are stereotyping and/or your prejudices are showing.There is a difference between words and behaviours. I could point you any one of a huge number of employers in the low to semi skilled space. Common theme with todays primarily youth, especially male. Getting out of bed is a challenge. Not sure what 8 hours work a day means. and 5 day a week is a bit of an ask. The alternatives are preferable as this group struggle to work. I could give you 12 names this year alone.

[value_investor]

Bit slower on the result than the rest of you lot, but I'm very much impressed as well. Although slightly downplaying the result as I'm not sure how much the development margin can be maintained especially if the market slows in the short term. I'm hoping it creates me more buying opportunities at cheaper prices.

I second beagle on the $105-110m underlying profit, closer to $110m based on development margin I think especially if the 450 builds can be attained. Which on a forward PE basis puts it on a 16 which is good buying in the current market but maybe only if you're a long term investor, i'd be surprised to see a similar ramp up to what we've just had unless something drastic happens.

On the share price, I think its a result of the NPAT going down on the back of unrealised property valuations which is slightly myopic way of looking at things but insto's are focused on short term results for their clients so it makes sense. The underlying profit result and cash flow statement (especially from operating activities) prove otherwise the quality of the stock.

I still think that the results on the horizon are going to be much better, and what has caught my eye is the two lines on lifting the build rate to 600 units. That's a 33% increase on current expectations just in 2 to 3 financial years which is a mammoth task so the belief in the team must be high and they've backed it up increasing their land bank. If they do put their money where their mouth is then we could see that price continue in an upwards fashion but as always the patient ones will win the race. I'll keep holding, it's a win/win for me with the DRP.

[davflaws]

I have been a counsellor, EAP provider, and employment advocate for more than 40 years. Of the thousands of people I have dealt with during this time I have met perhaps a dozen who preferred life on a benefit rather than productive work. I think you are stereotyping and/or your prejudices are showing.

Or perhaps mine are. I jumped in with an emotional response to a subject which is really important - particularly to the future of SUM. Either we attract and train enough caregivers locally, or we compete in an international market which is suffering/enjoying the same demographic pressures as SUM. Paying better than minimum wages is a start. We have already got a career path with recognised qualifications and now we also have a progressive pay scale that means something. Next, SUM should jump right into every training initiative that is going with both feet.

[davflaws]

There is a difference between words and behaviours. I could point you any one of a huge number of employers in the low to semi skilled space. Common theme with todays primarily youth, especially male. Getting out of bed is a challenge. Not sure what 8 hours work a day means. and 5 day a week is a bit of an ask. The alternatives are preferable as this group struggle to work. I could give you 12 names this year alone.

I'm sure you could, and because each of the dozen said he wanted to work (otherwise he (probably he) wouldn't have got the job) and then screwed up in the employer's eyes, or got pissed or got arrested or his girlfriend took off or ........ then you conclude that he was lying and would rather go on the dole than work. No. He wants to work, but needs (as you say) to learn to behave differently. Pre employment courses, lifeskills training, support, mentoring and workexperience is what is needed for those on the bottom of the heap.
Writing them off as preferring the dole is a misunderstanding that is horrendously costly both to them individually, and to society as a whole.

[minimoke]

I'm sure you could, and because each of the dozen said he wanted to work (otherwise he (probably he) wouldn't have got the job) and then screwed up in the employer's eyes, or got pissed or got arrested or his girlfriend took off or ........ then you conclude that he was lying and would rather go on the dole than work. No. He wants to work, but needs (as you say) to learn to behave differently. Pre employment courses, lifeskills training, support, mentoring and workexperience is what is needed for those on the bottom of the heap.
Writing them off as preferring the dole is a misunderstanding that is horrendously costly both to them individually, and to society as a whole.
You didn't read my post. I didn't mention screwing up, getting pissed or breaking up with teh girlfriend. I said, for clarity, couldnt wake up in time, couldnt work 8 hours, couldnt do a five days work a week. Those requirements are just to hard and unfair and unreasonable Teh alternative must be easier. That is their preference and ends up being their choice.

So I can agree with you. Your people do want to work. Provided they can rock in when ever they wake up, knock off whenever they feel like and take those long weekends at will. Employers are so damn demanding!

[iceman]

Bit slower on the result than the rest of you lot, but I'm very much impressed as well. Although slightly downplaying the result as I'm not sure how much the development margin can be maintained especially if the market slows in the short term. I'm hoping it creates me more buying opportunities at cheaper prices.

I second beagle on the $105-110m underlying profit, closer to $110m based on development margin I think especially if the 450 builds can be attained. Which on a forward PE basis puts it on a 16 which is good buying in the current market but maybe only if you're a long term investor, i'd be surprised to see a similar ramp up to what we've just had unless something drastic happens.

On the share price, I think its a result of the NPAT going down on the back of unrealised property valuations which is slightly myopic way of looking at things but insto's are focused on short term results for their clients so it makes sense. The underlying profit result and cash flow statement (especially from operating activities) prove otherwise the quality of the stock.

I still think that the results on the horizon are going to be much better, and what has caught my eye is the two lines on lifting the build rate to 600 units. That's a 33% increase on current expectations just in 2 to 3 financial years which is a mammoth task so the belief in the team must be high and they've backed it up increasing their land bank. If they do put their money where their mouth is then we could see that price continue in an upwards fashion but as always the patient ones will win the race. I'll keep holding, it's a win/win for me with the DRP.

Agree with you that the result is very good and the predicted growth in the build rate a lofty target supporting continued fast growth of the company. It is important to note however, that SUM has clearly stated that they do not expect to maintain this high development margin. Julian Cook said on National Radio yesterday that he expects it to settle long term around 25%.
Whichever way we look at it, this is a great long term hold

[Beagle]

Agree with you that the result is very good and the predicted growth in the build rate a lofty target supporting continued fast growth of the company. It is important to note however, that SUM has clearly stated that they do not expect to maintain this high development margin. Julian Cook said on National Radio yesterday that he expects it to settle long term around 25%.
Whichever way we look at it, this is a great long term hold

Mate, he's being very conservative in regard to the development margin which is not a surprise. That's how he's always been when I've talked to him about it at every annual meeting I've attended and they've consistently outperformed their target's before. The reason for this is Scott the CFO does all the pricing, (sorry, I can't disclose how I know this), and he's got an extremely good head on him when it comes to extracting maximum bang for buck with unit sales. Happy long term holder like a lot of others on here. SUM shares just make so much common sense to throw in the bottom drawer...

Excellent post value investor. PE of 16 is cheap relative to the market and the sector, most especially considering their enviable well proven track record of strong growth.

Quite aside from that I see national house prices excluding Auckland are still growing nicely, with for example Nelson up a whopping 15%, pretty sure SUM have two villages there...
http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/56fff436/nz-house-sales-flat-in-july-as-auckland-market-settles-prices-gain.html?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=NZ%20house%20sales%20flat%20in%20July %20as%20Auckland%20market%20settles%20prices%20gai n&utm_content=NZ%20house%20sales%20flat%20in%20July% 20as%20Auckland%20market%20settles%20prices%20gain +CID_b65d2d4b38f931bf355e457d5b211595&utm_source=Email%20marketing%20software&utm_term=httpwwwsharechatconzarticle56fff436nz-house-sales-flat-in-july-as-auckland-market-settles-prices-gainhtml
Wide widespread regional operations SUM is well placed to meet retiree's needs and the retiree's on a national average basis are well placed to fund the cost of entry.

[James108]

To assume this years development margin will continue indefinitely is a bit reckless imo. The cross cycle development margin could be estimated by looking at Ryman. One would assume that the current development margin is still affected by the large increase in house prices (indeed house prices are still rising overall). There must be a lag of 1-3 years between house price change flowing into development margin (e.g. all the land they are developing now would have been bought at a 'steal' several years ago).

That said Summerset is my largest holding, I have modeled a decrease in development margin (albeit model is out of date by a year) and I think current price is around fair value. Always happy to pay a fair price for a great company!

[minimoke]

To assume this years development margin will continue indefinitely is a bit reckless imo. !Which is why they have advised they arent assuming this

[James108]

I was responding to people saying Summerset were being conservative with their guidance.

[Beagle]

To assume this years development margin will continue indefinitely is a bit reckless imo. The cross cycle development margin could be estimated by looking at Ryman. One would assume that the current development margin is still affected by the large increase in house prices (indeed house prices are still rising overall). There must be a lag of 1-3 years between house price change flowing into development margin (e.g. all the land they are developing now would have been bought at a 'steal' several years ago).

That said Summerset is my largest holding, I have modeled a decrease in development margin (albeit model is out of date by a year) and I think current price is around fair value. Always happy to pay a fair price for a great company!

+1...well said.

[winner69]

Julian needs not worry about the property market ...for a while

July numbers pretty strong .....and record prices in some areas
http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/56fff436/nz-house-sales-flat-in-july-as-auckland-market-settles-prices-gain.html


And Westpac changed from gloom to saying there will be resurgence in the the property market in early 2019 seeing RBNZ keeping interest rates down


Hey beagle ....how about $115m to $120m forecast now.

[Joshuatree]

FWIW downgrade to hold from Craigs,
T/P increased to $8.10 from $7.70
Now trading at 2 x NTA in line wit historic rate 2.2
Lift in build rate baked in to s/p

[Beagle]

Julian needs not worry about the property market ...for a while

July numbers pretty strong .....and record prices in some areas
http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/56fff436/nz-house-sales-flat-in-july-as-auckland-market-settles-prices-gain.html


And Westpac changed from gloom to saying there will be resurgence in the the property market in early 2019 seeing RBNZ keeping interest rates down


Hey beagle ....how about $115m to $120m forecast now.

LOL. Market overall is tracking pretty well isn't it !

[couta1]

Reverting deeper into that channel aye winner, now 57.5% Lol.

[winner69]

Reverting deeper into that channel aye winner, now 57.5% Lol.

SUM only have 3rd quarter sales early October but RYM have half year profit announcement in November ....that could be the killer blow and reaffirm that hypothesis good and proper.

Completely irrational and monsense eh

[couta1]

SUM only have 3rd quarter sales early October but RYM have half year profit announcement in November ....that could be the killer blow and reaffirm that hypothesis good and proper.

Completely irrational and monsense eh HaHa, 6 years of correct nonsense must be irrational aye.

[LAC]

Hi Guys,
Firstly a holder of both RYM and SUM, but if one grows at +-25% and the other at +-15%, surely at some point the share price will meet...
Other than one building a large number more units which will mean they have more "product" to sell. What else will keep the share price from meeting?

[James108]

Hi Guys,
Firstly a holder of both RYM and SUM, but if one grows at +-25% and the other at +-15%, surely at some point the share price will meet...
Other than one building a large number more units which will mean they have more "product" to sell. What else will keep the share price from meeting?

If one company outperforms the other share price will diverge eventually, this is like investing 101. Eventually being key word.

It is then a question of which one will outperform which may not be as simple as some suggest. (Although my money is on Summerset and has been for some time)

[couta1]

Hi Guys,
Firstly a holder of both RYM and SUM, but if one grows at +-25% and the other at +-15%, surely at some point the share price will meet...
Other than one building a large number more units which will mean they have more "product" to sell. What else will keep the share price from meeting? Many things will stop the SP from meeting including best of breed, world wide fund exposure, perception etc etc, it won't happen.PS-SUM will drop to 15% growth over the next few years.

[LAC]

Best in breed I get, but it will be an interesting watch over the next few years. Even if SUM get to 15% (which is still a great growth rate IMO), it would only need a few years of outperforming RYM to cause the share price to diverge.
Really looking forward to the next few years. I have reduced RYM in favor of SUM but plan to accumulate the same numbers going forward. Today has been a good RYM day though - both stock have been thrown in my bottom drawer till 2038:)

[minimoke]

Best in breed I get, but it will be an interesting watch over the next few years. Even if SUM get to 15% (which is a great growth rate IMO), it would only need a few years of outperforming RYM to cause the share price to diverge.
Really looking forward to the next few years. I have reduced RYM in favor of SUM but plan to accumulate the same numbers going forward. Today has been a good RYM day though - both stock have been thrown in my bottom drawer till 2038:)
I'm not sure the focus on the share price.

With SUM you can have one share out of 224.8m shares for $7.56
Or you can have one RYM out of 500m shares for $13.19. (Actually, as a holder of RYM as well as SUM I reckon that $13.19 is worth repeating. Did I mention $13.19?)

[Beagle]

Many things will stop the SP from meeting including best of breed, world wide fund exposure, perception etc etc, it won't happen.PS-SUM will drop to 15% growth over the next few years.

I think that's a "brave" call. One year out of the last 6 they only grew at 10% but the average is 45% and I reckon they're on track for 25-30% underlying profit growth this year. They're ramping up the build rate going forward and looking to expand in Australia. Well known you think this is expensive mate but expensive on an earnings basis taking into account their well proven long term growth rate, compared to what ? (Hint OCA's growth rate isn't well proven yet.)

[winner69]

If one company outperforms the other share price will diverge eventually, this is like investing 101. Eventually being key word.

It is then a question of which one will outperform which may not be as simple as some suggest. (Although my money is on Summerset and has been for some time)

Investing 101 is text book theory

What happens in real world is different (Behavioural Finance 303)

[couta1]

I think that's a "brave" call. One year out of the last 6 they only grew at 10% but the average is 45% and I reckon they're on track for 25-30% underlying profit growth this year. They're ramping up the build rate going forward and looking to expand in Australia. Well known you think this is expensive mate but expensive on an earnings basis taking into account their well proven long term growth rate, compared to what ? (Hint OCA's growth rate isn't well proven yet.) I like brave calls as you know, RYM have got a couple of very big years coming up, those that truly believe the SP will reach parity are not seeing things clearly.PS-I still pick OCA as having the most upside over the next few years, once the Elephant is put to sleep.

[dabsman]

I don't care - I hold a lot of both ;)

I think Ryman's main difference is how they are viewed by the big end of town. Over time SUM will get that level of love

[macduffy]

SUM "looking to expand in Australia" isn't quite as compelling as RYM already doing well in Australia. But I hold both, happily!

[couta1]

I don't care - I hold a lot of both ;)

I think Ryman's main difference is how they are viewed by the big end of town. Over time SUM will get that level of love I don't either as I hold neither currently but have the upmost respect for RYM in all ways compared to SUM others. With the ciders on Beagle the world is a happy place although he will get a free ski lesson to sweeten the deal.

[Beagle]

I like brave calls as you know, RYM have got a couple of very big years coming up, those that truly believe the SP will reach parity are not seeing things clearly.PS-I still pick OCA as having the most upside over the next few years, once the Elephant is put to sleep.

If you can lead a horse to water but you can't make it drink what hope is there of making a misbehaving elephant do what you want :lol:
I think Macquarie might be a thorn in OCA shareholders side for a while so I reduced a bit of them yesterday. I'll tell myself the ciders pay for the ski lesson and your relativity theory is still a load of rubbish :p

[winner69]

Keep updating this chart as it gives me the warm fuzzies when I do

SUM share price has probably got ahead of itself .... chart suggests it might not go anywhere for a while or go could even drop back into that channel that's been in place for years


Share price has risen by 25% pa which is pretty good ...even though I believe earnings have grown at a faster rate than this


Just another lot of nonsense as share price should be 9 bucks ay least some say .....but I do like my chrt... been a long trade this one

[BlackPeter]

Investing 101 is text book theory

What happens in real world is different (Behavioural Finance 303)

Though it is hard to fault a theory predicting an eventual change with only one observation period of finite length ....

However - no matter what it is - if we assume for arguments sake that Couta's theory holds water, than it does not matter whether we invest into SUM or RYM. According to Couta both will develop with the same velocity - and $1000 invested into RYM will grow as fast as $1000 invested into SUM.

However if Couta's theory is wrong, than the $ invested in SUM will grow faster. Which means - there is no drawback of investing into SUM ... you either get the same return as with RYM (according to Couta), or a better return (if Couta is wrong).

Looks different for the people investing into RYM - they either get the same return as the SUM investors, or they get less.

Given this choice - what possible reason could there be to invest into RYM, if you can put your money as well into an either equal or better performing SUM?

Given that markets are a chaotic system 2nd order ... just the existence of this thought will increase the buying pressure on SUM, which means that SUM inevitably will outgrow RYM in a rational market :p;

QED.

[Beagle]

Though it is hard to fault a theory predicting an eventual change with only one observation period of finite length ....

However - no matter what it is - if we assume for arguments sake that Couta's theory holds water, than it does not matter whether we invest into SUM or RYM. According to Couta both will develop with the same velocity - and $1000 invested into RYM will grow as fast as $1000 invested into SUM.

However if Couta's theory is wrong, than the $ invested in SUM will grow faster. Which means - there is no drawback of investing into SUM ... you either get the same return as with RYM (according to Couta), or a better return (if Couta is wrong).

Looks different for the people investing into RYM - they either get the same return as the SUM investors, or they get less.

Given this choice - what possible reason could there be to invest into RYM, if you can put your money as well into an either equal or better performing SUM?

Given that markets are a chaotic system 2nd order ... just the existence of this thought will increase the buying pressure on SUM, which means that SUM inevitably will outgrow RYM in a rational market :p;

QED.

Yes the chief campaigner of that relativity theory just admitted to me that there's no way he'd be a buyer of RYM at $13.30 so QED indeed !
SUM things make a LOT of sense like your post mate.

[winner69]

Though it is hard to fault a theory predicting an eventual change with only one observation period of finite length ....

However - no matter what it is - if we assume for arguments sake that Couta's theory holds water, than it does not matter whether we invest into SUM or RYM. According to Couta both will develop with the same velocity - and $1000 invested into RYM will grow as fast as $1000 invested into SUM.

However if Couta's theory is wrong, than the $ invested in SUM will grow faster. Which means - there is no drawback of investing into SUM ... you either get the same return as with RYM (according to Couta), or a better return (if Couta is wrong).

Looks different for the people investing into RYM - they either get the same return as the SUM investors, or they get less.

Given this choice - what possible reason could there be to invest into RYM, if you can put your money as well into an either equal or better performing SUM?

Given that markets are a chaotic system 2nd order ... just the existence of this thought will increase the buying pressure on SUM, which means that SUM inevitably will outgrow RYM in a rational market :p;

QED.

Very profound .... had thought the same but didn't want to upset the apple cart ....and I didn't think rationality applied.


Suppose your argument applies if both SUM and RYM share prices fall which could result in RYM falling more ...again SUM the better bet as you wouldn't lose as much)

[James108]

Investing 101 is text book theory

What happens in real world is different (Behavioural Finance 303)

Maybe in in the short term. As our friend Ben said, in the short term the share market is a voting machine, in the long term it is a weighing machine.

I’m not interested in the short term.

[couta1]

I'm quite satisfied as my theorum has stood the test of time for near 6 years and I'm looking forward to the next 6. At the end of that period you guys will just have to accept that there's no point fighting it anymore, have a nice weekend.:cool:

[James108]

I'm quite satisfied as my theorum has stood the test of time for near 6 years and I'm looking forward to the next 6. At the end of that period you guys will just have to accept that there's no point fighting it anymore, have a nice weekend.:cool:

Its easy to look at data and see a pattern, what is useful is its ability to predict the future. Hasn't the theorem been wrong since it was theorised?

[Patient Panda]

Maybe in in the short term. As our friend Ben said, in the short term the share market is a voting machine, in the long term it is a weighing machine.

I’m not interested in the short term.

Funnily enough you’re both right.

Winner is referring to the efficient market hypothesis and how its not worth the paper its written on.

I think our friend Warren would prefer Ryman. Better to have a good company at a fair price than a fair company at a good price. (He’d like both companies but I think he’d prioritise RYM as he loves predictibility aand a good track record)

[winner69]

Maybe in in the short term. As our friend Ben said, in the short term the share market is a voting machine, in the long term it is a weighing machine.

I’m not interested in the short term.

Sage advice from Ben

But have you considered that with RYM and SUM it’s the weighing machine that’s in play

Relativity etc been in place quite a long time ...the voters have had their say and the scales have settled down and measuring a fair intrinsic value for both (taking everything into account)

But I feel you will disagree

[limmy]

Maybe in in the short term. As our friend Ben said, in the short term the share market is a voting machine, in the long term it is a weighing machine.

I’m not interested in the short term.
Good point. :)

[James108]

Sage advice from Ben

But have you considered that with RYM and SUM it’s the weighing machine that’s in play

Relativity etc been in place quite a long time ...the voters have had their say and the scales have settled down and measuring a fair intrinsic value for both (taking everything into account)

But I feel you will disagree

I actually think that is fairly likely. All I’m saying is that if either rym or sum outperform the other going forward (not saying one will) eventually the share price will follow.

[Beagle]

Over time investors know that share prices of established profitable companies follow earnings and trade at a multiple of earnings based on the companies track record and investors perceptions of earnings growth in the years ahead. Obviously there are some exceptions like when companies trade with a potential takeover premium but as a general rule this principle should be a fundamental foundational principle of any prudent investors stock selection criteria as its fundamental to generating outperformance over time.

At present I think the market thinks that RYM is going to have a couple of big years in term of earnings growth but the fact of the matter on any objective analysis is that SUM's earnings growth on an average basis since it listed more than 6 years ago has substantially outstripped RYM's earnings growth over the same timeframe.

Some investors have come up with a relativity theory they think will hold water going forward. While I accept that RYM have the premier growth track record in terms of consistency since listing in 1999, (19 years) over time in the future there is clearly more potential for SUM to build further credibility (on their existing highly credible track record) and therefore some PE expansion is possible as they prove their ability to grow earnings over the next 4 years and then show a full decade of growth.

On the other hand RYM have nothing further to prove and I would argue PE expansion over time is highly unlikely. When you then consider their relative earnings growth rate and the fact that they operate is ostensibly the same sector (with different themes) over time on the balance of probabilities SUM looks like the better bet both on the basis of faster earnings growth and the possibility of PE expansion.

Disc: There is real money behind this post and I recently added to my SUM stake whereas some other people who support a relativity theory may not be invested in either stock at present, (make of that what you will).

In the extremely unlikely event that this relativity theory continues to hold water over the years ahead both SUM and RYM shareholders will approximately do equally well. For SUM shareholders then, it would appear to be heads you do extremely well and tails you still do handsomely well over time. Any way you crunch the SUM's that's an attractive proposition and investable case especially at a material discount to the market PE when their average growth has been dramatically better than market average. SUM stocks are investing 101... made very easy. On the other hand RYM's forward PE looks very stretched at present but each to their own and good luck to RYM shareholders.

[Maverick]

Now that's the quality kind of post that sharetrader is all about. I get it that people get excited or upset when a share price changes and want to "chat" about it but I've always liked sharetrader because of the well presented options like this are put forward.
Cheers Mr Beagle for taking the time.

[Beagle]

Perception is probably the key word mate. The perception of RYM shareholders is that the company can do no wrong. Its proved throughout the GFC that it can grow underlying earnings consistently which is no easy feat. They seem to have an edge when it comes to getting planning consents too. Shareholder perceive that perhaps because of the robustness of their business model RYM can grow underlying earnings at ~ 15% per annum indefinitely so are prepared to accord a Ben Graham multiple to this company.

On the other hand investors perhaps perceive that SUM companies still need further proof even after 6 years of high growth and another one forecasted this year that their business model is anywhere near as robust as RYM's ? I think what's crystal clear is it takes a very long time to earn the market's trust...maybe there's a free lesson there for Arvida and OCA shareholders who are hoping for quick PE multiple expansion ? (Disc: I trimmed my OCA position slightly this week pending what the elephant in the room decides to do).

Over the long haul I still believe the market is a weighing machine, not a voting machine. It sure was a voting machine this week !

[winner69]

Re Beagles last few posts I always found this graphic fascinating

Is the S&P500 but I would hazaed a guess that it would be similar for the NZX as the 'perceived' irregularities between RYM amd SUM ...and other cases


There is no correlation between EPS growth and PE ratios (for the stocks on the S&P500)

The conclusion is that EPS growth is a pretty useless guide to 'value'

[Beagle]

Very short period of time. Ben Graham would argue such a short time frame is woefully insufficient to draw any conclusions. Something over the last 30 years including the GFC and bust of the dot com and tech bubble might give a more conclusive indication.

So if you believe the relativity theory do you or Couta1 own many RYM shares ?...i.e. do you have serious money behind your theory like I do with mine ?

Actually I remember you posting a graph that showed in the early years the average PE of SUM was 27 which wasn't all that different to RYM.

I believe earnings growth and SP are correlated and provide this example as a case in point. As discussed SUM have enjoyed much faster earnings growth than RYM since listing. Over the last 5 years here's how that been represented in their relative SP performance 9857 I note RYM have not doubled, just over 90% and that's probably because their eps growth has averaged slightly less than the 15% per annum to justify a doubling, whereas SUM is up just on 145%.

This is the maximum timeframe allowed by the supercharts of ANZ securities but if you can find the data I would love to see a comparative graph of the two for the entire period since SUM was listed (December 2011 from memory).

[Maverick]

Comparing Pe /growth on all the stocks on the s&p 500 is a bit broad I suggest. On that same chart in NZ might be ATM , XRO , SNK And RBD THL gMT. So in order words the business s are so diverse that they are incomparable.
However, graphing only Rym, sum ,oca and arv all in the same sector then there is totally a correlation (when considering length of time listed)

[couta1]

Very short period of time. Ben Graham would argue such a short time frame is woefully insufficient to draw any conclusions. Something over the last 30 years including the GFC and bust of the dot com and tech bubble might give a more conclusive indication.

So if you believe the relativity theory do you or Couta1 own many RYM shares ?...i.e. do you have serious money behind your theory like I do with mine ?

Actually I remember you posting a graph that showed in the early years the average PE of SUM was 27 which wasn't all that different to RYM.

I believe earnings growth and SP are correlated and provide this example as a case in point. As discussed SUM have enjoyed much faster earnings growth than RYM since listing. Over the last 5 years here's how that been represented in their relative SP performance 9857 I note RYM have not doubled, just over 90% and that's probably because their eps growth has averaged slightly less than the 15% per annum to justify a doubling, whereas SUM is up just on 145%.

This is the maximum timeframe allowed by the supercharts of ANZ securities but if you can find the data I would love to see a comparative graph of the two for the entire period since SUM was listed (December 2011 from memory). Actually I have had some very serious money in both RYM and SUM over the years as well as working at the coal face of both companies for a long time. As I feel that OCA has the most upside out of the three over the next few years, I'm waiting patiently to take an XXXOS sized position in the company once the Elephant takes a nap. PS-HaHa Beagle, in the extremely unlikely event that the relativity theory continues to hold water, more like in the extremely unlikely event that it doesn't continue to hold water,after all it's been right for near 6 years.Lol. PPS-Dont forget the OCA part of the theory which says it should be around $1.30, so it's undervalued aye.

[winner69]

Comparing Pe /growth on all the stocks on the s&p 500 is a bit broad I suggest. On that same chart in NZ might be ATM , XRO , SNK And RBD THL gMT. So in order words the business s are so diverse that they are incomparable.
However, graphing only Rym, sum ,oca and arv all in the same sector then there is totally a correlation (when considering length of time listed)

Wouldnt it be a totally negative correlation - higher eps growth lower the pe - that’s what the discussion is about

But oca and arv not really been around long enough but most punters would say high growth and below average pe

[Beagle]

SUM listed on 1 November 2011. The IPO price was $1.40. At the closing price on Friday 17 August 2018 the shares closed at $7.50 5.35 times your money plus dividends in 6.75 years.
RYM closed at $2.71 on 31 October 2011. At the closing price of $13.35 investors have made 4.93 times their money plus dividends in the same timeframe. RYM reported underlying profit of $84m for the year ended 31 March 2012 which is 16.8 cps so as at 1 November 2011 they were trading at $2.71 / 0.168 = 16.13 times forward earnings approximately where SUM presently trades on a forward earnings basis.

If RYM grows underlying profit 17% this year to $238m their underlying EPS will be 238/500m = 47.6 cps. At $13.35 this puts them on a forward PE of 28 times.

If SUM can make $107.5m this year on 224.8m shares issued = 47.8 cps, ostensibly the same eps as RYM. At $7.50 this places them on a forward PE of 15.7.

[winner69]

Comparing Pe /growth on all the stocks on the s&p 500 is a bit broad I suggest. On that same chart in NZ might be ATM , XRO , SNK And RBD THL gMT. So in order words the business s are so diverse that they are incomparable.
However, graphing only Rym, sum ,oca and arv all in the same sector then there is totally a correlation (when considering length of time listed)

I was going to plot eps growth and pe for the sector on the NZX but 4 traders only have SUM profits growing at 19% pa for the next three years ...can’t be right so didn’t waste my time.

[winner69]

Beagles ...you getting like Snoopy in adding to posts after I’ve read them

What I saw first was the SUM:RYM ratio has moved from 52% in 2012 to 56% today ......thats nearly 7 years for little change (and maybe still reverting to the mean ha ha)

[Beagle]

Beagles ...you getting like Snoopy in adding to posts after I’ve read them

What I saw first was the SUM:RYM ratio has moved from 52% in 2012 to 56% today ......thats nearly 7 years for little change (and maybe still reverting to the mean ha ha)

RYM has been able to do this by expanding its PE from 16 when SUM listed to 28 today an expansion of 75%. That is the only way it has been able to keep this silly completely illogical relativity thing going. Surely nobody in their right mind would think that there could be another 75% multiple expansion from 28 to 49 times earnings in another five years time ?
I am absolutely certain their PE multiple relativity is at the extreme end of what is possible, (happy to invest significant funds on that basis) so future SP movements are more than likely to be related to eps gains and if anything the relativity of their multiples should converge at least slightly over time.

Coutts mate, early days for OCA. They have a lot of potential but a LOT to prove to the market over the years ahead before I think the market will ascribe them a multiple in the late teens.

[winner69]

Beagle - dont forget that SUM once had a higher PE than RYM in the early days

Was once in the 30's

Lost those charts I once shared with you of RYM and SUMs PE over the years but heres a fairly recent SUM one


9858

[Beagle]

Beagle - dont forget that SUM once had a higher PE than RYM in the early days

Was once in the 30's

Lost those charts I once shared with you of RYM and SUMs PE over the years but heres a fairly recent SUM one


9858

Yes I know mate. SUM PE about halved since listing and RYM up 75% which is illogical but surely can't happen again can it...so unless RYM's EPS growth starts at least matching SUM's... NO way in the world I would pay $13.35 a share for RYM when I can get nearly 1.8 times the earnings power with nearly 1.8 SUM shares for the same money. I don't care what RYM's reputation is a numbers man will always say just show me the money :)

Come on Coutts mate, admit it publicly, there's no way in the world you're paying $13.35 for RYM is there !

[Patient Panda]

Yes I know mate. SUM PE about halved since listing and RYM up 75% which is illogical but surely can't happen again can it...so unless RYM's EPS growth starts at least matching SUM's... NO way in the world I would pay $13.35 a share for RYM when I can get nearly 1.8 times the earnings power with nearly 1.8 SUM shares for the same money. I don't care what RYM's reputation is a numbers man will always say just show me the money :)

Come on Coutts mate, admit it publicly, there's no way in the world you're paying $13.35 for RYM is there !


I’m one of RYM’s biggest fans and nor would I pay 13.35 per share at its current eps and nta. Generally speaking good value buying for RYM is at 3x NTA or below and a good time to sell is 4x NTA.
This for me, has been the best way to value them and get extremely good returns.

Rym has the perfect blend, that secret sauce. In 30 years you could see them all around the world. Improving retirement living wherever they go.

its a bit like Pepsi and Coke. In his early days Warren might have scoffed at the RYM P/e preferring any of the other listed retirement co’s. Just as he sold his Pepsi shares for Coke shares I believe he would have done a similar process with these other listed retirement co’s for RYM as he learned to value a brand and emphasise the economic moat of a business.

Theres a huge amount of value in a brand and being able to deliver on it.

[James108]

I’m one of RYM’s biggest fans and nor would I pay 13.35 per share at its current eps and nta. Generally speaking good value buying for RYM is at 3x NTA or below and a good time to sell is 4x NTA.
This for me, has been the best way to value them and get extremely good returns.

Rym has the perfect blend, that secret sauce. In 30 years you could see them all around the world. Improving retirement living wherever they go.

its a bit like Pepsi and Coke. In his early days Warren might have scoffed at the RYM P/e preferring any of the other listed retirement co’s. Just as he sold his Pepsi shares for Coke shares I believe he would have done a similar process with these other listed retirement co’s for RYM as he learned to value a brand and emphasise the economic moat of a business.

Theres a huge amount of value in a brand and being able to deliver on it.

Question for you, what would sum have to do for you to consider it a better company than rym (like coke is “better” than pepsi). Obviously grow earnings faster is not enough, is it simply a runs on the board thing? Or a scale thing?

At the moment I see no reason why summerset couldn’t be considered best in breed in the near future.

[couta1]

Yes I know mate. SUM PE about halved since listing and RYM up 75% which is illogical but surely can't happen again can it...so unless RYM's EPS growth starts at least matching SUM's... NO way in the world I would pay $13.35 a share for RYM when I can get nearly 1.8 times the earnings power with nearly 1.8 SUM shares for the same money. I don't care what RYM's reputation is a numbers man will always say just show me the money :)

Come on Coutts mate, admit it publicly, there's no way in the world you're paying $13.35 for RYM is there ! No I wouldn't pay $13.35 for Rym, nor would I pay $7.50 for SUM, on the other hand, I would pay $12.50 or under for RYM but wouldn't buy SUM unless it went $6.50 which works out at 52% ratio. Anyway I'm leaving this thread to the SUM lovers for now, will return in a long while to check out how those ratios are going, promise I won't come back on ground hog day though.

[Beagle]

Its good for friends to simply agree to disagree if they can't agree.

I've done my best to explain my point of view based on facts.

[Patient Panda]

I should probably also keep my snout out of this thread and let the party continue. Sum is a good company, can’t deny that (I do own a few).

[Lewylewylewy]

Big shame for Couta to leave the sum thread. Very valuable info like sum salespeople leaving for oca.

Im fully invested in sum and riding it out. I intend to buy more once it's finished dropping. Im wondering if it will go to $6.80 a share? I do believe that sums pe will decrease based on the last result. I also believe that SP will significantly increase on the next result. I intend to make money from this rise, then review my position.

Thanks to all the posters here for their opinions and analysis. Remember not to get too emotional about your stock picks. Best to be emotionally attached enough to bring the happy's but not enough to be blinded and get it wrong. Something i struggle with.

[macduffy]

Just a reminder that SUM was trading for around $5.50 less than six months ago.

:cool:

[Beagle]

Just a reminder that SUM was trading for around $5.50 less than six months ago.

:cool:
Depends on your frame of reference. The shares were $5.60 nearly two years ago in Sept 2016 and since then they have grown annual earnings for two years at 50% and 44% respectively. If the shares matched the price relativity of September 2016 they'd be $5.60 x 1.50 x 1.44 = $12.10....and yet SUM people for whatever reason, (possibly sellers remorse) think the shares are presently overpriced at $7.50 on a forward PE of just 15.7 times FY18 earnings...go figure but I reckon some people should have another look with a fresh set of eyes. That said you can lead a horse to water but you can't make it drink.....so I give up.
If they go down a bit more...what with so little value on the NZX, what do I care I'm in this for the long haul. It simply creates an awesome opportunity to build wealth over time and presents an opportunity to raise one's stake in the company to overweight and make even more money over time.

If anyone can find me another share on the NZX that's grown earnings on average 45% per annum over the last 6 years on a forward PE under 16, please let me know what it is !!

[winner69]

After a down week last week SUM due for an up week this week

Let’s hope so

[Bobdn]

Let's hope not. Dividend reinvestment coming up.

[Lewylewylewy]

Agreed. Disappointed (but predicted) that my sum shares are going down, but excited to buy more at a discount via drp and market purchase. Long term holder don't care about today's pricing, but wow look at the buyers vs sellers... not many buyers!

[Beagle]

Agreed. Disappointed (but predicted) that my sum shares are going down, but excited to buy more at a discount via drp and market purchase. Long term holder don't care about today's pricing, but wow look at the buyers vs sellers... not many buyers!

Probably all sitting on their hands waiting to see where this minor correction takes us and then they'll pounce.

[Lewylewylewy]

You might be right. Perhaps a better strategy may be to buy parcels averaging downinstead of wait for a bottom?

[winner69]

At least it was a up day today ...good start to the week

[Beagle]

You might be right. Perhaps a better strategy may be to buy parcels averaging downinstead of wait for a bottom?

My mate Coutts absolutely dreaming at $6.50, (forward PE of just 13.5 for a company of this caliber with its growth would be the bargain of the year) but part of me wants him to be right so I can really get the hammer out and then smash the ball out of the park over the years ahead.

[Lewylewylewy]

Looks like 7.50 was the bottom, maybe be a little early to say but that's what my gut says

[freddagg]

A week ago Craigs reduced them to a hold, 12 month target $8.10

[Beagle]

Looks like 7.50 was the bottom, maybe be a little early to say but that's what my gut says

$7.52 trading cum divvy this afternoon was too tempting for me. Topped up.

[Bobdn]

XD and seems to be going strong. Wish all my holding were like this XD.

[Ggcc]

What the heck is going on here today? Almost sounds like a fantastic share to trade for some (not me 😊)

[minimoke]

What the heck is going on here today? Almost sounds like a fantastic share to trade for some (not me 😊)Oops. Took my eye of my SUM holding - too busy with ATM and SML. No wonder portfolio has rocketed these past few days

[Ggcc]

Mine went up fast today as well due to ATM and SML, SUM and IFT

[Beagle]

Big push up in quality growth stocks this week. Its been a while coming. I'm just going to let them all run...I'm investing thinking at least 5 years out and these and some other quality names have a very long way to run over the long term.

[Food4Thought]

How good is this! Well that means I should treat myself to SUM other shares as well... I think I spot a relationship about to happen.

[BlackPeter]

Wow - less than 2200 shares to buy to crack the $8 boundary! Come on guys ... you can do it ;);

[Timesurfer]

What goes up must come down

[dobby41]

What goes up must come down

Why? .

[Food4Thought]

Why? .
Yes, no need for it to come down at all, couple of profit takers and then it's back on 😊

[LAC]

Yes, no need for it to come down at all, couple of profit takers and then it's back on 

Needs to come down....I need to top up haha:)

[Blue Skies]

Needs to come down....I need to top up haha:)

I'll second that!
Procrastinated when should have taken a lead from Beagle topping up at 752 last week.

Would be interested in everyone's opinions, which is the better bet, based on holdings of SUM & OCA being approx similar $ value, & a minimum 2 year time frame, would you top up SUM @ around 769 or OCA @ around 113 ?

[winner69]

I'll second that!
Procrastinated when should have taken a lead from Beagle topping up at 752 last week.

Would be interested in everyone's opinions, which is the better bet, based on holdings of SUM & OCA being approx similar $ value, & a minimum 2 year time frame, would you top up SUM @ around 769 or OCA @ around 113 ?

You haven’t been paying attention blue skies

To save you rereading some of the posts here and there the answer to your question is OCA ...guaranteed

[Beagle]

I'll second that!
Procrastinated when should have taken a lead from Beagle topping up at 752 last week.

Would be interested in everyone's opinions, which is the better bet, based on holdings of SUM & OCA being approx similar $ value, & a minimum 2 year time frame, would you top up SUM @ around 769 or OCA @ around 113 ?

That's a super tough question, too hard for me so I have a bob or two each way :)...with a bias towards SUM at this point but ready to take advantage of Kashin rolling over and living up to his name and then back to 50/50.

[couta1]

That's a super tough question, too hard for me so I have a bob or two each way :)...with a bias towards SUM at this point but ready to take advantage of Kashin rolling over and living up to his name and then back to 50/50. I wouldn't buy SUM and I'm still waiting for Kashin to stop wallowing in the mud.

[Ggcc]

I'll second that!
Procrastinated when should have taken a lead from Beagle topping up at 752 last week.

Would be interested in everyone's opinions, which is the better bet, based on holdings of SUM & OCA being approx similar $ value, & a minimum 2 year time frame, would you top up SUM @ around 769 or OCA @ around 113 ?
For the short term I would think Summerset, but 2 years I would back OCA. Would I buy shares in either right now........... processing

[RTM]

I'll second that!
Procrastinated when should have taken a lead from Beagle topping up at 752 last week.

Would be interested in everyone's opinions, which is the better bet, based on holdings of SUM & OCA being approx similar $ value, & a minimum 2 year time frame, would you top up SUM @ around 769 or OCA @ around 113 ?

I”m not good at eating capital gains, so for me it would be OCA.
Disc: Hold both.

[couta1]

Hey winner can you put up an updated version of your relativity chart as RYM hits $14.09.

[Beagle]

Hey winner can you put up an updated version of your relativity chart as RYM hits $14.09.

A Beagle bait post if ever I saw one lol

[couta1]

A Beagle bait post if ever I saw one lol You'll be too distracted late next week worrying about the relativity of your body to the snowline to care about these trivial matters mate. PS-Im feeling thirsty already.

[Beagle]

You'll be too distracted late next week worrying about the relativity of your body to the snowline to care about these trivial matters mate. PS-Im feeling thirsty already.

This dog says it perfectly for me lol. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6RfAYnCxkK0
SUM more funny car adds for SUM more amusement https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p33PkLnYyxs

SUM will be a great hold, you'll see.

[winner69]

Hey winner can you put up an updated version of your relativity chart as RYM hits $14.09.

Yep, end of month close is the price used in the chart. Day by day, week by week prices just noise.

Bugger .....think I’ve lost the file so can’t update at the mo.

Maybe it’ll be that 50% when I find it. Reversion to the mean is cool eh.

[Beagle]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=esjec0JWEXU SUM times words fail me and this is best.

Still..it could be worse, SUM people loaded up on THL well north of $6 and the poor people holding Sky Television today as it seemed to fall into a black hole :eek2:

[couta1]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=esjec0JWEXU SUM times words fail me and this is best.

Still..it could be worse, SUM people loaded up on THL well north of $6 and the poor people holding Sky Television today as it seemed to fall into a black hole :eek2: That's why HLG makes up 30% of my portfolio and THL just 1%, a SUM what unequal pie.

[Blue Skies]

Thanks v much Beagle, Winner, Couta, Ggcc, RTM for yr thoughts on SUM v OCA, always really appreciate your posts.

Both seem quality long term investments, & still poss relatively cheap compared to many stocks at mo, or will looking back in 2 or 3 years time.

Managed to pick up a few more OCA (only about ⅓ of order) at 113 today in the brief dips & if SUM gets anywhere near 752 again will grab some more of those.

Have a great weekend everyone

[Beagle]

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/323212