SUM - Summerset Group

[Goldstein]

Well fellow Summerset lovers we have the Q4 results to look forward to on Jan 10th something to bring an early cheer to the market,anyone got any thoughts on the effect of the recent $200 mill land purchase in Christchurch on 2014 figures maybe on the upcoming march dividend? Depends where this money come from I guess as to what effect if any will be had.

Couta1, just re-reading the Christchurch land purchase. The company talks about a $200M investment. I wonder if this means the entire investment for land purchase + build. In that case the build may not be for a few years. Also, there may be a finance arrangement in place.

I guess I'm saying I don't expect SUM to turn to the shareholders for 200M next week.

[Wolf]

Did we get the Third Quarter results?
Isn't the Fourth Quarter results the annual report or do they audit the Fourth Quarter and the previous Quarters before releasing the annual report?

[Goldstein]

Did we get the Third Quarter results?
Isn't the Fourth Quarter results the annual report or do they audit the Fourth Quarter and the previous Quarters before releasing the annual report?

Are you meaning the quarterly sales of occupation rights? Third quarter due out before the 10th of Jan.

[couta1]

Couta1, just re-reading the Christchurch land purchase. The company talks about a $200M investment. I wonder if this means the entire investment for land purchase + build. In that case the build may not be for a few years. Also, there may be a finance arrangement in place.

I guess I'm saying I don't expect SUM to turn to the shareholders for 200M next week.
Yes your right Goldstein the 200mill will be the total investment amount for land plus build which I'm guessing will start in 2016

[couta1]

Are you meaning the quarterly sales of occupation rights? Third quarter due out before the 10th of Jan.
Q3 results for sale of occupation rights occured on Oct10th so Q4 quarterly results will be announced on Jan 10th before date for annual results and report so a bit of good news early Jan to put a spring in our step

[Harvey Specter]

Q3 results for sale of occupation rights occured on Oct10th so Q4 quarterly results will be announced on Jan 10th before date for annual results and report so a bit of good news early Jan to put a spring in our stepi think you are getting your calendar and financial years mixed up. Financial year if or them is to March so December is Q3.

[winner69]

i think you are getting your calendar and financial years mixed up. Financial year if or them is to March so December is Q3.

Methinks SUM financial year endeth December - so next announcement is indeed Quarter 4 - or in corporate speak 4Q13

Main point - will it be more than 52 for 3Q13 or the 43 for 4Q12

[couta1]

i think you are getting your calendar and financial years mixed up. Financial year if or them is to March so December is Q3.
If you look back to last Jan your see Q4 sales metric results released not Q3 but this report highlights total sales for that calendar year as you say but it would be easy to work out new sales for 3 months between Oct and Jan either way looking forward to seeing total sales numbers for last year on Jan 10th

[couta1]

Methinks SUM financial year endeth December - so next announcement is indeed Quarter 4 - or in corporate speak 4Q13

Main point - will it be more than 52
Thanks Winner,correct

[MAC]

Methinks SUM financial year endeth December - so next announcement is indeed Quarter 4 - or in corporate speak 4Q13

Main point - will it be more than 52 for 3Q13 or the 43 for 4Q12

The SUM target build rate for the 2013 year is 200 units, and SUM have for the first three quarters new unit sales of 64+52+52 = 168.

Thus a 4Q13 result of only 32 new unit sales would adequately meet the prescribed annual target of 200 units, a 4Q13 result higher than 32 must surely must be perceived by the market as growth ahead of plan.

A result of 52 new sales, the same as 3Q13, would be 220 for the year, a very good result, up and away Winner.

http://www.summerset.co.nz/assets/Investor-Centre/NZX-2012/2012-11-Summerset-purchases-19th-site.sml.pdf

[couta1]

The SUM target build rate for the 2013 year is 200 units, and SUM have for the first three quarters new unit sales of 64+52+52 = 168.

Thus a 4Q13 result of only 32 new unit sales would adequately meet the prescribed annual target of 200 units, a 4Q13 result higher than 32 must surely must be perceived by the market as growth ahead of plan.

A result of 52 new sales, the same as 3Q13, would be 220 for the year, a very good result, up and away Winner.

http://www.summerset.co.nz/assets/Investor-Centre/NZX-2012/2012-11-Summerset-purchases-19th-site.sml.pdf
Exactly Mac that's why I've been encouraging those thinking of climbing aboard to do so very soon as once this plane leaves the runway future tickets are going to cost a lot more,expecting price to start rising after Jan 10th

[winner69]

The SUM target build rate for the 2013 year is 200 units, and SUM have for the first three quarters new unit sales of 64+52+52 = 168.

Thus a 4Q13 result of only 32 new unit sales would adequately meet the prescribed annual target of 200 units, a 4Q13 result higher than 32 must surely must be perceived by the market as growth ahead of plan.

A result of 52 new sales, the same as 3Q13, would be 220 for the year, a very good result, up and away Winner.

http://www.summerset.co.nz/assets/Investor-Centre/NZX-2012/2012-11-Summerset-purchases-19th-site.sml.pdf

Methinks they very conservative with estimates ......the good old under promise over deliver trick eh

[couta1]

Winner69,Do you have one of those fancy little charts for Summer set like you've shown us for Ryman? Cheers

[kizame]

I think a lot of this growth has already been built into the shareprice as SUM sitting on a pe of 32 and RYM on pe of 26.
yes they are growing well,BUT i tend to think PE's are getting bit ahead of things.
With RYM growing now in underdeveloped Aus, and SUM the award winner, who do you think should have the higher PE ratio.

[MAC]

I think a lot of this growth has already been built into the shareprice as SUM sitting on a pe of 32 and RYM on pe of 26.
yes they are growing well,BUT i tend to think PE's are getting bit ahead of things.
With RYM growing now in underdeveloped Aus, and SUM the award winner, who do you think should have the higher PE ratio.

DCF is better recognised as a metric by FA's for comparing relative valuations than PE in isolation, some on this forum use a more coarse Benjamin Grahame method which is good enough for a quick ballpark assessment.

If one is going to use PE in comparing two companies within the same sector they must be read equally in a perspective of relative earnings growth, PEG would be a better indicator if DCF is not possible for you, but again not in isolation.

SUM has a HY13 PE of 31.2 and an earnings growth rate of 176%
RYM has a HY13 PE of 24.8 and an earnings growth rate of 14%

SUM has a HY13 PEG of 0.18
RYM has a HY13 PEG of 1.78

[couta1]

I'm tempted like Roger to ditch all my Ryman shares and load up completely on Summerset based on how much money I would have in 5 years time working out my current holdings as opposed to just holding Sum but I think Ryman might still surprise with their Aussie expansion outcomes and now they are on the international index overseas buyers may be willing to pay more than us kiwis as has already been seen on the odd days trading when the price has taken a quick upward turn, I personally don't believe Rym will be back down to $7 by the end of Jan,oh well food for thought one thing I do know is if I hadn't sold retirement stock to buy Chorus I'd be about 150k better off than I now am and I don't intend making the same mistake again. Disc-Hold 6 times more Sum than Rym currently

[winner69]

Winner69,Do you have one of those fancy little charts for Summer set like you've shown us for Ryman? Cheers

Just for you coutla - seeing a torrential shower or two came over and curtailed the DIY and no cricket to watch and the races are boring as

The bottom chart is from shortly after listing since then SUM has been in a steady up trend at 0.9% a week. The price has been contained in a very tight channel of only 0.3 stand deviations except for a short period when punters got a bit excited middle of this year.

I have also done a shorter time frame chart (the top one). Since July this year (after that period of total exuberance when punters got carried away) the growth rate has declined causing a shallower trend (although still contained in the long term channel). Hasn't been a good investment the last 5 months. As one would expect over a shorter time frame price 'volatility' is greater than the long term chart so the channel lines are at 1.3 std dev.

Sum has been a fantastic long term hold over the last 2 years - you can't complain at nearly 1% a week capital gain can you.

The slow down in the uptrend lately is interesting. Maybe it does reflect what kizame (controversy erupts) said earlier.

However with the price still contained in the channels no reason to be worried .... but is hanging around the bottom of it for a while now. Maybe just marking time for a while .... taking a breather until January 10th eh coutla .... but if it goes below that line for a period of time the trend is broken and anything could happen .... the market does not always act the way it should

I not selling yet

[couta1]

Thanks Winner for that, yep Jan 10th and beyond hurry up!!

[couta1]

Another thought maybe as only 1 of 7 big brokers chose Sum for the year its like the PPiper leading the market astray while Sum sleeps waiting for a shock awakening oh well that's my story and I'm sticking to it

[kizame]

Another way i am looking at this: If you look at the charts of both RYM and SUM,and I use logarythmic scale.
I note that SUM's price chart is slowing down,where compare that to RYM's which has actually accelerated upwards.(this can obviously change with something very positive)
I am probably wrong but tend to think with RYM's greater resources and track record,and huge opportunity now in front of it in Aus,are making this the more attractive stock,at the moment for the immediate future.Sum will obviously,at the rate it's travelling now be in the same boat later in the peace,NO?

[MAC]

It will be an interesting watch to see how Ryman go in Victoria Kizame, I was living there at the time when Ryman announced their Wheelers Hill development and was a little astonished. It will take a year or two and a couple of annual reports IMHO to prove if an aged care model will be more or less profitable in Vic.

To achieve the same gross margins that RYM and SUM have in NZ, Ryman will have to price their new unit sales and re-sales very much higher to compensate for some quite large headwinds. Profitable aged care is about high standards and efficiency in what is an extremely labour dependent market.

Victoria compared with NZ:
Very aggressive unions
Higher construction costs
Longer construction times, working capital tied up for longer
Higher operational labour costs
Lower labour productivity

I’m very pleased actually that Norah Barlow looked at the Australian market and strategically decided against it. Until proven otherwise my anticipation is that gross margins will be lower in Vic than NZ, either way, Julian Cook will have a good zero cost guinea pig to study at Wheelers Hill.

[couta1]

It will be an interesting watch to see how Ryman go in Victoria Kizame, I was living there at the time when Ryman announced their Wheelers Hill development and was a little astonished. It will take a year or two and a couple of annual reports IMHO to prove if an aged care model will be more or less profitable in Vic.

To achieve the same gross margins that RYM and SUM have in NZ, Ryman will have to price their new unit sales and re-sales very much higher to compensate for some quite large headwinds. Profitable aged care is about high standards and efficiency in what is an extremely labour dependent market.

Victoria compared with NZ:
Very aggressive unions
Higher construction costs
Longer construction times, working capital tied up for longer
Higher operational labour costs
Lower labour productivity

I’m very pleased actually that Norah Barlow looked at the Australian market and strategically decided against it. Until proven otherwise my anticipation is that gross margins will be lower in Vic than NZ, either way, Julian Cook will have a good zero cost guinea pig to study at Wheelers Hill.
Very astute post Mac, I think especially the gross margin comments even though the independent units are selling like hotcakes that doesn't tell us about the cost of running the care center once thats up and going and should Sum decide to venture into Aussie in the future the market over there will be well aware of their Australasian award winning history

[troyvdh]

My gut feeling ..again is that RYM will be about $2-$3 a share before the end of the year.....

...off course after another 5-1 split...

...oops is that meant to be 1-5 split...sorry

[couta1]

My gut feeling ..again is that RYM will be about $2-$3 a share before the end of the year.....

...off course after another 5-1 split...

...oops is that meant to be 1-5 split...sorry
You could be right and won't the public love that thinking there getting Ryman at a great price compared to those that paid much more, it's a wonder Tui haven't used this concept on one of there billboards to date!!

[winner69]

Another way i am looking at this: If you look at the charts of both RYM and SUM,and I use logarythmic scale.
I note that SUM's price chart is slowing down,where compare that to RYM's which has actually accelerated upwards.(this can obviously change with something very positive)
I am probably wrong but tend to think with RYM's greater resources and track record,and huge opportunity now in front of it in Aus,are making this the more attractive stock,at the moment for the immediate future.Sum will obviously,at the rate it's travelling now be in the same boat later in the peace,NO?

Interesting viewpoint

One way of measuring this is ROC - rate of change of the shareprice over time. Taking a long term view I have used to 180 day periods to show what is happening. After all both are in long sustained up trend

The chart is below.

For both the 180 day change in the share price is declining .... and as you point out kizame RYM is still doing a lot better than SUM in this respect.

As many have said RYM and SUM prices tend to move in tandem, This is clearly shown on the chart (with SUM tending to move further than RYM when things slow down)

Earnings continue to grow strongly for both. Shareprice are still increasing from 180 days prior but the gains are getting smaller. This started about November when the whole market (NZX) started to take a breather. Methinks that this is confirmation that we could be seeing a rerating of all the market in general with a shrinking in earnings multiples.

Both RYM and SUM will continue to grow earnings but we could see shareprice of both not really moving much at all over the next year, maybe even declining. The signs are there now of this happening.

That's how I see it. Will just have to keep a closer eye on the charts and see how the squiggly lines (or whatever born2invest call them) stay within those channels and if necessary react. Might be another buying opportunity like 2008/09 again

But then what the heck do I know

[Goldstein]

A thing to bear in mind Winner is that the QPE divestment had an enormous effect. The announcement was on May 17th. Some of us hope to see normal service resume:

[Beagle]

Logically, it should be SUM on the higher P/E ratio because its earnings growth is higher, since it is coming from a lower point, relative to Ryman.

If SUM's long term earnings growth is around 28-30%, then it is arguably good value when compared to estimated forward earnings.

And this begs the next question, what do I think SUM should be worth? I think it deserves a price of $4.25 on next years declared earnings, assuming the 5 year average growth rate looks like 25% p.a. from thereon.

None of this detracts from Ryman as a superb company with fantastic earnings growth. It's just that its a bit fully valued compared to SUM.

My assessment is that SUM is on a PEG ratio of approx 1 which is excellent value for this low risk sector and is considerably better value than Ryman. All things being equal I cannot see the stock getting more competitivly priced than it already is based on its historical and projected growth profile so provided the company delivers good growth in 2014 we should see the stock price track north of $4 leading up to the full year results announcement in February 2015 as results are announced. SUM is my top pick for 2014 by a country mile and I expect $4.30 - $4.50 by late February 2015 after FY 31/12/2014 announcement.


I'm tempted like Roger to ditch all my Ryman shares and load up completely on Summerset based on how much money I would have in 5 years time working out my current holdings as opposed to just holding Sum but I think Ryman might still surprise with their Aussie expansion outcomes and now they are on the international index overseas buyers may be willing to pay more than us kiwis as has already been seen on the odd days trading when the price has taken a quick upward turn, I personally don't believe Rym will be back down to $7 by the end of Jan,oh well food for thought one thing I do know is if I hadn't sold retirement stock to buy Chorus I'd be about 150k better off than I now am and I don't intend making the same mistake again. Disc-Hold 6 times more Sum than Rym currently I think you're well positioned already mate :)

[Goldstein]

This article confirms a number of things I have stated about RYM, SUM and the age care sector. We can expect these two companies to do well over the next five years.

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/9575199/Shortage-of-rest-home-beds-looms

Interesting how the article's source is Morningstar's Grant Thorton. Morningstar currently has RYM valued at $6 with a reduce recommendation.

Some interesting numbers in the article.The grey tsunami seems rather imminent.

[percy]

This article confirms a number of things I have stated about RYM, SUM and the age care sector. We can expect these two companies to do well over the next five years.

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/9575199/Shortage-of-rest-home-beds-looms

Life as an investor is a great deal more rewarding being in the right sector at the right time.!!
Maybe I sold down RYM too early,but continue to hold both RYM, and a larger holding in SUM.

[Goldstein]

Ah, yes - I misread sorry. Grant Thorton is an Auckland accounting firm that did the report mentioned.

Moghe is quoted as saying the demand for units will double over the next 15 years. It would be great to be able to ask him directly why he's so bearish on RYM.

[troyvdh]

Like I say pick up the phone and ask him....

oops sorry forgot also ask him what shares he holds...cheers

[troyvdh]

Like I say ..big picture here...cheers

[Goldstein]

Like I say pick up the phone and ask him....

oops sorry forgot also ask him what shares he holds...cheers

I might email ASB Securities. Every time I check RYM's depth I get this rediculous Morningstar red-flagged Reduce warning.

[couta1]

I might email ASB Securities. Every time I check RYM's depth I get this rediculous Morningstar red-flagged Reduce warning.
None of that with DB,they use Reuters which has Rym as a hold

[Beagle]

My gut feeling ..again is that RYM will be about $2-$3 a share before the end of the year.....

...off course after another 5-1 split...

...oops is that meant to be 1-5 split...sorry

I personally think Ryman shareholders shuld be very happy with a year of consolidation and if the SP gets to $9 by year end, (see my comment on PE contraction below), they should be happy with that.


Interesting viewpoint

One way of measuring this is ROC - rate of change of the shareprice over time. Taking a long term view I have used to 180 day periods to show what is happening. After all both are in long sustained up trend

The chart is below.

For both the 180 day change in the share price is declining .... and as you point out kizame RYM is still doing a lot better than SUM in this respect.

As many have said RYM and SUM prices tend to move in tandem, This is clearly shown on the chart (with SUM tending to move further than RYM when things slow down)

Earnings continue to grow strongly for both. Shareprice are still increasing from 180 days prior but the gains are getting smaller. This started about November when the whole market (NZX) started to take a breather. Methinks that this is confirmation that we could be seeing a rerating of all the market in general with a shrinking in earnings multiples.

Both RYM and SUM will continue to grow earnings but we could see shareprice of both not really moving much at all over the next year, maybe even declining. The signs are there now of this happening.

That's how I see it. Will just have to keep a closer eye on the charts and see how the squiggly lines (or whatever born2invest call them) stay within those channels and if necessary react. Might be another buying opportunity like 2008/09 again

But then what the heck do I know

No question with long term interest rates increasing we could see some PE contraction in the market.
RYM on a PE of circa 30 growing at circa 20% on a PEG ratio of approximatly 1.5 is more exposed in this regard in my opinion.
On the other hand with SUM growing at approximatly the same rate as its PE ratio I believe their stronger growth rate in the forseeable future gives them a degree of insulation from this. It will be exceptionally frustrating if SUM tracks sideways all year, (I don't expect this to happen), due to PE contraction but that can't go on forever and patient investors will eventually be extremly well rewarded by the intrisic growth profile of this stock fueled by exceptional tailwinds in this sector.

I for another are happy SUM are letting someone else be the guniea pig in Australia, (there's always more business risk in a stock when they try and expand overseas).

[MAC]

Well, let’s see what happens early next week for the patient, Q4 report’s out Friday, I’m expecting the 200 build target to be adequately met with a minimum of 200 new sales for the year, insto’s and volume returns next week also, perhaps the Q4 will catalyse a start of the anticipated within sector rotation into SUM.

[couta1]

Well, let’s see what happens early next week for the patient, Q4 report’s out Friday, I’m expecting the 200 build target to be adequately met with a minimum of 200 new sales for the year, insto’s and volume returns next week also, perhaps the Q4 will catalyse a start of the anticipated within sector rotation into SUM.
With you on all of the above I don't believe this sideways price for the year nonsense, I think the days of buying Sum cheap are coming to an end soon.

[Harvey Specter]

Well, let’s see what happens early next week for the patient, Q4 report’s out Friday, I’m expecting the 200 build target to be adequately met with a minimum of 200 new sales for the year, insto’s and volume returns next week also, perhaps the Q4 will catalyse a start of the anticipated within sector rotation into SUM.is build rate and new sales the same thing (ie. Do they ignore presales and/or unsold units) or do they report those numbers separately?

[MAC]

is build rate and new sales the same thing (ie. Do they ignore presales and/or unsold units) or do they report those numbers separately?

It's a good question Harvey that I've pondered too, perhaps the accountants can assist us.

One would expect that a pre-sale comes with a fully signed up contracted obligation, and should thus be treated as a 'new sale' upon date of contract signing ?.

But, then there could be just as many pre-sales as post construction sales, either way, new villages are built and are completed at quite irregular intervals throughout the year, and because of this I don't place a lot of importance on quarter by quarter results in isolation, the annual build rate guidance provides a more uniform gauge of performance to me.

[troyvdh]

dear couta ...me thinks that ACC think differently

[couta1]

dear couta ...me thinks that ACC think differently
Dear troyvdh,They only sold 50k shares out of a 12 Million holding, hopefully someone who deserves some compensation will get the benefit of the money

[couta1]

Am I reading it wrong or are you? Previous disclosure 12,284,614 shares, current disclosure 10,820,794 shares. Seems therefore they have sold roughly 1.5 millions shares no?
Further down the notice it stated they sold 50k shares for $164006 which works out at $3.28 per share,sounds right but I also noticed what you did above? Mistake somewhere

[winner69]

Further down the notice it stated they sold 50k shares for $164006 which works out at $3.28 per share,sounds right but I also noticed what you did above? Mistake somewhere

The 50k sale was the one that took them below 5% .....that's all they have to disclose in the way of trades. For all we know the 50k followed a larger trade the same day and there could have been many trades after the 50k trade as well

The notice says nothing more than that there was 1 trade of 50k that took there holding below 5%

[PartyPooper]

I'm surprised SUM has held up above 3.25 on such high volume. I was planning to buy some more but it always tends to drift between 3.10 - 3.28, I'm going to stand off at the moment if there's a chance before the report I'll go for it. Otherwise I'll not be doing along of work while refreshing ASB for the announcement on the 10th.

I'd say ACC were locking in some profits from when they brought in around $3 I think it was. Nothing to worry about unless they dumped all their shares at once =D

[couta1]

I'm surprised SUM has held up above 3.25 on such high volume. I was planning to buy some more but it always tends to drift between 3.10 - 3.28, I'm going to stand off at the moment if there's a chance before the report I'll go for it. Otherwise I'll not be doing along of work while refreshing ASB for the announcement on the 10th.

I'd say ACC were locking in some profits from when they brought in around $3 I think it was. Nothing to worry about unless they dumped all their shares at once =D
ACC just rebalancing IMHO and your right after all they still hold over 10 million shares,as I've commented on a few times before the days of buying Sum cheap are numbered IMHO

[Lost in space]

Interesting article on CNBC predicting NZ economy to be the 'rockstar' economy for 2014. Bodes well for NZ stocks however the bullish outlook for the NZ dollar could act as a headwind for exporters this year. http://www.cnbc.com/id/1013109

[ratkin]

Interesting article on CNBC predicting NZ economy to be the 'rockstar' economy for 2014. Bodes well for NZ stocks however the bullish outlook for the NZ dollar could act as a headwind for exporters this year. http://www.cnbc.com/id/1013109

Thats a worry , far too much bullishness around imo

[Goldstein]

ACC just rebalancing IMHO and your right after all they still hold over 10 million shares,as I've commented on a few times before the days of buying Sum cheap are numbered IMHO

ACC seem to be using SUM shares as a monthly term deposit.

SSH notices:

17th May 5.621%
10th Sep 4.989%
22nd Oct 5.689%
6th Jan 4.997%

[couta1]

ACC seem to be using SUM shares as a monthly term deposit.

SSH notices:

17th May 5.621%
10th Sep 4.989%
22nd Oct 5.689%
6th Jan 4.997%
I've been told personally by someone high up in ACC that the highest paid workers in the company are the people who invest and move their shares around so if they are getting more than the CEO what sort of money are they making? Sum would be one of there safer holdings probably the best term deposit rate around aye

[winner69]

I've been told personally by someone high up in ACC that the highest paid workers in the company are the people who invest and move their shares around so if they are getting more than the CEO what sort of money are they making? Sum would be one of there safer holdings probably the best term deposit rate around aye

and just imagine all those that clip the ticket with all moving the shares around

ACC may as just held on to 10 mill shares and done none of this shuffling and saved zillions ..... but then the others wouldn't be getting their cut eh .... one big rort eh

[couta1]

and just imagine all those that clip the ticket with all moving the shares around

ACC may as just held on to 10 mill shares and done none of this shuffling and saved zillions ..... but then the others wouldn't be getting their cut eh .... one big rort eh
People seem shocked when I tell them that ACC is first and foremost an investment company with accident compensation as a sideline.Oh Dear

[Goldstein]

Interesting. If ACC didn't exist it would be lawyers and insurance companies clipping the ticket.

[winner69]

People seem shocked when I tell them that ACC is first and foremost an investment company with accident compensation as a sideline.Oh Dear

That applies to all insurance companies .....profits in the main from investing the premiums .... And hoping the premiums cover the claims

[couta1]

That applies to all insurance companies .....profits in the main from investing the premiums .... And hoping the premiums cover the claims
I think I should give them my portfolio to play with and pay them a commission they have a very good success rate and would make more money than I could!!!

[Goldstein]

I think I should give them my portfolio to play with and pay them a commission they have a very good success rate and would make more money than I could!!!

They seem to be doing alright: http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/money/9230463/ACC-surplus-opens-way-for-levy-cuts

[winner69]

I think I should give them my portfolio to play with and pay them a commission they have a very good success rate and would make more money than I could!!!

Then you would have some CNU shares ha ha

[macduffy]

They seem to be doing alright: http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/money/9230463/ACC-surplus-opens-way-for-levy-cuts

Yes, it's been a good year all round for the markets.

Now here's a provocative thought. Perhaps ACC's investment expertise and success in trading should be applauded rather than criticised. More power to their arm - and lower ACC levies than otherwise would be necessary - sounds like a good idea to me. After all, the claims won't suddenly reduce if the investing experience sours!

Disc: No conflict of interest - other than as another taxpayer.

:cool:

[couta1]

Yes, it's been a good year all round fwon't accepthe markets.

Now here's a provocative thought. Perhaps ACC's investment expertise and success in trading should be applauded rather than criticised. More power to their arm - and lower ACC levies than otherwise would be necessary - sounds like a good idea to me. After all, the claims won't suddenly reduce if the investing experience sours!

Disc: No conflict of interest - other than as another taxpayer.

:cool:
ACC are not the problem re lower levies its the Govt as they wont accept ACCs recommended proposed levy cuts,so thumbs up for ACCs investing abilities but thumbs down to the Govt for always knowing better

[skid]

People seem shocked when I tell them that ACC is first and foremost an investment company with accident compensation as a sideline.Oh Dear

That unfortunately is part of the problem--That kind of thinking (while doing well ATM-and who wouldnt with rising sharemarket in 2013) is also dictating policy and ACC has started acting more like a business corporation where profits are the main motivating factor.
Unfortunately the downside of that is the ''cost reduction''of screwing their victims by sending them to their self appointed doctors for evaluation and giving them incentives for cost cutting.
Their was a pretty revealing piece on 60min or 20/20.
While we need ACC to stay solvent its important they dont forget their primary reason for existence.
Also lets not forget they have had some pretty large cock ups in the past (lost alot of dosh with Pike River and NZO)
They are no different than alot of investment outfits --They are tickity boo (even idolized) until things sour and they get knocked off their high horse,and we all know who pays the price.
I only hope they are not getting to speculative

[couta1]

That unfortunately is part of the problem--That kind of thinking (while doing well ATM-and who wouldnt with rising sharemarket in 2013) is also dictating policy and ACC has started acting more like a business corporation where profits are the main motivating factor.
Unfortunately the downside of that is the ''cost reduction''of screwing their victims by sending them to their self appointed doctors for evaluation and giving them incentives for cost cutting.
Their was a pretty revealing piece on 60min or 20/20.
While we need ACC to stay solvent its important they dont forget their primary reason for existence.
Also lets not forget they have had some pretty large cock ups in the past (lost alot of dosh with Pike River and NZO)
They are no different than alot of investment outfits --They are tickity boo (even idolized) until things sour and they get knocked off their high horse,and we all know who pays the price.
I only hope they are not getting to speculative
Couldn't agree more, I know so many self employed people paid in for umpteen years without a claim and then when they put one in it was like getting blood out of a stone they were treated like criminals and came away with a few scraps or nothing!!

[couta1]

Looks like market is waking up not many wanting to sell cheap today,anticipation of a good result coming up,oh yeah

[Goldstein]

Looks like market is waking up not many wanting to sell cheap today,anticipation of a good result coming up,oh yeah

Things might remain quite illiquid until the quarterly numbers announced. I'm looking good on paper, but I think the SP is quite random at the moment.

[Beagle]

Couldn't agree more, I know so many self employed people paid in for umpteen years without a claim and then when they put one in it was like getting blood out of a stone they were treated like criminals and came away with a few scraps or nothing!!

I agree 100%. I have over 30 years experience as an accountant and have seen millions of dollars in my career go into the ACC's coffers by way of levies on self employed clients but try and get any money out of them and most people give up in frustration and find the process of claiming extremly distasteful, at best. ACC are much harder to deal with than the I.R.D., (which is really saying something).

I find it somewhat disconcerting that ACC are trading Sum on such a frequent basis, effectivly with a big player like that "working" the stocks movements it makes it very tough to trade the stock profitably...on the other hand for those of us in this for the long haul does this really matter...

[In4a$]

That unfortunately is part of the problem--That kind of thinking (while doing well ATM-and who wouldnt with rising sharemarket in 2013) is also dictating policy and ACC has started acting more like a business corporation where profits are the main motivating factor.
Unfortunately the downside of that is the ''cost reduction''of screwing their victims by sending them to their self appointed doctors for evaluation and giving them incentives for cost cutting.
Their was a pretty revealing piece on 60min or 20/20.
While we need ACC to stay solvent its important they dont forget their primary reason for existence.
Also lets not forget they have had some pretty large cock ups in the past (lost alot of dosh with Pike River and NZO)
They are no different than alot of investment outfits --They are tickity boo (even idolized) until things sour and they get knocked off their high horse,and we all know who pays the price.
I only hope they are not getting to speculative
Dont forget though that ACC has a duty to ensure those making claims are genuine and in genuine need. They get hammered in the press for trying to make sure people are making valid claims, think what a mess it would be if claims were handed out willy nilly. We all know of someone who has ripped ACC of, with a suspect claim, so I applaud them for being tough, admitidly they go overboard at times but better that than being to easy.

[couta1]

After paying hefty levies for 25 yes I've gone with agreed value cover now although its about half my income I won't have to submit financials in the event of a claim and can still work part time while recovering without it affecting payout amount should I choose to,also have small income protection cover,back to Sum I'm predicting the price to break $3.50 after announcement coming up,anyone else agree?

[Timid]

I'm predicting the price to break $3.50 after announcement coming up,anyone else agree?

Might break that today, doing well so far (on pretty much no volume)

[skid]

Dont forget though that ACC has a duty to ensure those making claims are genuine and in genuine need. They get hammered in the press for trying to make sure people are making valid claims, think what a mess it would be if claims were handed out willy nilly. We all know of someone who has ripped ACC of, with a suspect claim, so I applaud them for being tough, admitidly they go overboard at times but better that than being to easy.

Thats a fair point N4 and us taxpayers dont want to get ripped-BUT what I was referring to was situations uncovered where ACC employed doctors were intentionally making reports that were just plain dishonest (or it sure looked that way)
I wish I could dig up the report for all to see.
We dont want to get ripped off either way do we? ACC is supposed to be our parachute if something seriously goes wrong--This share market action looks to much like the stuff of the fat cat bankers and finance advisors that stuffed us the last time around.
I think I would be happier if they kept those millions in levies in safer money markets--Its suppose to be about security(for the money and us if we get hurt)
To be speculating (if thats the case) and at the same time shafting the working joe is not good--Its suppose to be about looking after people and at the same time hopefully screening fairly.

[macduffy]

I know that this isn't the "ACC" thread but can't help observing that I find it strange that a supposedly successful investor/sharetrader should be criticised on the Sharetrader forum!

[Beagle]

^People want to vent their frustration from time to time, a little thread diversion isn't a big deal I would have thought...


After paying hefty levies for 25 yes I've gone with agreed value cover now although its about half my income I won't have to submit financials in the event of a claim and can still work part time while recovering without it affecting payout amount should I choose to,also have small income protection cover,back to Sum I'm predicting the price to break $3.50 after announcement coming up,anyone else agree?

I'm a big believer in self insurance...by the time you look at all the wastage and administration in their system and the profits they make, self insurance to some extent makes sense over the long run.

At the risk of appearing extremly cynical I'd speculate the investment manager at ACC is on holiday at the moment otherwise no doubt they'd be "working" the stock. I think its become clear who has been relentlessly putting up volume on the sell side recently. Is my "love" for the ACC too obvious ? LOL.

[Goldstein]

I suspect ACC are dipping into their SUM investment to chase other stocks. Maybe they are behind the DIL/WYN surge - who knows.

Getting back to SUM, nice to see it settle on its highest end of day close. I know it's had an intraday trade of $3.50 in the middle of the year.

I guess it's a squeeze between lack of sellers and punters climbing aboard before the next announcement on or before the 10th.

[JayRiggs]

4Q13 sales results out today!
Looking good at over 400 sales.


4Q13 Metrics - Sales of Occupation Rights 8:37am, 8 Jan 2014 | QUARTER NZX & ASX RELEASE
8 JANUARY 2014
4Q13 METRICS – SALES OF OCCUPATION RIGHTS

Metrics for the sales of occupation rights for the final quarter of 2013 are provided below.
The Group achieved 402 sales across the year ending 31 December 2013, composed of 228 new sales and 174 resales.
This represents a 21% increase in the total number of sales on the prior comparable period. Gross cash for sales for the year were NZ$131 million, up from $102 million on the prior year.
“Achieving over 400 sales of occupation rights for the year is another milestone achieved for the company and reflects our experience as operators. We are constantly looking to improve what we do and offer and our sales reflect this” said CEO Norah Barlow.
Over the fourth quarter of 2013, the Group achieved 60 new sales of occupation rights and 51 resales of occupation rights.

This is an increase in total sales of 50% on the same quarter of 2012, with 111 sales in 4Q13 compared to 74 sales in 4Q12.
FY13 SALES OF OCCUPATION RIGHTS
See attached table
FY12 SALES OF OCCUPATION RIGHTS
See attached table
NOTES:
• Quarterly metrics on occupation right sales are provided by the 10th of the month following the end of each quarter.
• The quarterly sales metrics provided may not necessarily reflect NZ IFRS financial performance for the corresponding period. In particular, key items in the income statement, such as the fair value movement of investment property, are dependent on several variables, of which one is occupation right sales. NZ IFRS financial performance is calculated for the periods ending 30 June and 31 December each year.



https://www.nzx.com/companies/SUM/announcements/245877

[couta1]

Bring it on,now watch the price

[In4a$]

Thanks JayRiggs, after reading that I can feel my wallet growing already

[silu]

If this doesn't finish above $3.50 today then I don't want to know anything anymore.

[skid]

I know that this isn't the "ACC" thread but can't help observing that I find it strange that a supposedly successful investor/sharetrader should be criticised on the Sharetrader forum!

Hi Mac-Im not criticizing the fact that they are supposedly successful at investing (ATM)--just the appropriateness of whether an outfit that is suppose to serve a social need should be run in such a way.
I realize that this site is primarily about profit,but a little social conscience on the side is not a bad thing IMO.
I dont think it does anything to detract from anyones opinion of SUM.
It certainly makes sense to be thinking about retirement investments at this point in time-theres alot of potential customers heading in that direction.

[couta1]

If this doesn't finish above $3.50 today then I don't want to know anything anymore.
Your starting to sound like me silu,should top $3.50 but don't forget takes a while for wee brains to digest good news and push correct button,anyway let's raise a toast to ourselves for believing in the company and to the hardworking team at Summer set,well done

[Beagle]

This will be a billion dollar company within twelve months. I'm calling this at $4.75 by the end of the year.

I called it $4.33 by November 2014 quite a while back in this thread and will stick with that for now but am feeling very confident after that exceptional sales result in ther fourth quarter. Very pleasing result.

Remember my fellow investors, like the Mainland Cheese advertisement says "good things take time" and great investment gains are a function of the equation of capital invested plus time in the market. With a stock that's showing good steady growth like SUM, your gains are directly proportional to the quantum of your investment both in terms of capital and time. Don't be frustrated if there's not quick gains today, its not an ATM machine, even if ACC seem to think so :)

[hilskin]

Thanks Roger, well said.
Disc - Held Summerset for a while now and not sure I'll EVER sell.

[blockhead]

Should rub off on RYM as well I reckon

[Goldstein]

Should rub off on RYM as well I reckon

Various parties may try to rebalance their investments in this sector by selling some RYM to purchase SUM.

But still healthy news for the sector.

[couta1]

It amazes me what people are paying for Met compared to Sum on no results figures?? Still think its overvalued

[silu]

It amazes me what people are paying for Met compared to Sum on no results figures?? Still think its overvalued

I liked the management changes at MET that's why I bought a small parcel.

[winner69]

I called it $4.33 by November 2014 quite a while back in this thread and will stick with that for now but am feeling very confident after that exceptional sales result in ther fourth quarter. Very pleasing result.

Remember my fellow investors, like the Mainland Cheese advertisement says "good things take time" and great investment gains are a function of the equation of capital invested plus time in the market. With a stock that's showing good steady growth like SUM, your gains are directly proportional to the quantum of your investment both in terms of capital and time. Don't be frustrated if there's not quick gains today, its not an ATM machine, even if ACC seem to think so :)

Talking of Mainland Cheese and the famous ads sad to see the Mahinapua Hotel is doomed by the looks of it. Nada few beers in their over the years

Maybe a nice site for a small SUM village

[silu]

I'm going to hold SUM for 10 years and then retire into one of their units with my cat ;)

[mrjeems]

Your starting to sound like me silu,should top $3.50 but don't forget takes a while for wee brains to digest good news and push correct button,anyway let's raise a toast to ourselves for believing in the company and to the hardworking team at Summer set,well done

Plus those big sells need to be absorbed to move past there.

[couta1]

I'm going to hold SUM for 10 years and then retire into one of their units with my cat ;)
Agreed but will probably have to take wife along with cat

[Beagle]

Talking of Mainland Cheese and the famous ads sad to see the Mahinapua Hotel is doomed by the looks of it. Nada few beers in their over the yearsMaybe a nice site for a small SUM village

I believe our southern friends have a favourite word to describe their feelings on such matters made famous by another well known advertisement run by toyota and that talking dog :)

[Beagle]

Agreed but will probably have to take wife along with cat

We have 3 small dogs we love heaps and they're all coming up eight years old this year and i'm wondering if SUM are agreeable to multiple pets ? I see a dog in a lot of SUM's advertising and they advertise that they love the life you bring to their reirement home e.t.c. but you don't see residents with 3 dogs very often... My wife and I are in our early 50's so its probably best we slim the number down to 2 by the time we retire...good thing that every 15 years or so you get to choose how many you want to have.

[couta1]

Plus those big sells need to be absorbed to move past there.
Those sells are big but not that big if it wasn't holiday time still I'd say they would dissapear quickly

[couta1]

Roger, I will stand corrected if wrong, but I think the score is:

Ryman - yes, but requires village mgr approval. They have pet open days where local residents can interact for the day with animals.
SUM - can have a small cat or dog, must be approved by village manager
MET - can bring a small cat or dog with you, but can't replace. Requires manager approval. Needs to be apartment friendly pets.
Plus members of the public can take pets to visit residents anytime in Rym and Sum homes, Rym have quite a few resident turtles in their homes as well plus fish of course

[Goldstein]

Those sells are big but not that big if it wasn't holiday time still I'd say they would dissapear quickly

The bigger buyers will swallow these easily. Who knows we might even get an SSH notice regarding ACC.

[silu]

Agreed but will probably have to take wife along with cat

Not quite sure if I have the stamina for Wife No. 3 ;)

[couta1]

Interesting that Met seems to be keeping just ahead of Sum in its percentage rise today maybe some with poor eyesight thought it was a Met announcement by mistake

[couta1]

[QUOTE=silu;453067]Not quite sure if I have the stamina for Wife No. 3 Servicing requirements will be minimal at that stage unless you marry a younger French woman

[Beagle]

Roger, I will stand corrected if wrong, but I think the score is:

Ryman - yes, but requires village mgr approval. They have pet open days where local residents can interact for the day with animals.
SUM - can have a small cat or dog, must be approved by village manager
MET - can bring a small cat or dog with you, but can't replace. Requires manager approval. Needs to be apartment friendly pets.

Thanks Sparky. You'd want to own a young puppy if you moved into a MET unit :)

[pierre]

Not quite sure if I have the stamina for Wife No. 3 Servicing requirements will be minimal at that stage unless you marry a younger French woman

What a way to die!

[silu]

[QUOTE=silu;453067]Not quite sure if I have the stamina for Wife No. 3 Servicing requirements will be minimal at that stage unless you marry a younger French woman

I'm Austrian so the French do owe us a wedding. And cake.

[Beagle]

Anyway enough of pets and problematic relationships and I did some analysis.
Sales numbers grew 21% for the year but sales value grew 28.4% implying an avergae increase of 7.4% in the value of each unit.
Average sales price for 2013 $325,870 considerably more affordable than the average Ryman unit, which going off memory and someone please feel free to correct me but is getting up around $400,000 per unit, ($395,000 springs to mind), from memory. I think its fair to say Sum are targeting a slightly different market than Ryman.

But the really interesting thing was the split between first half sales and second half.
Sales to 30 June 2013 were up only 10.5% based on the previous comparable period, (remember adjusted profit after stripping out revaluations was up 45% at the half year to 30 June 2013), yet sales for the second half of the year were up 33% on the PCP which bodes very well for their full year profit given that the company is clearly executing pretty well on its stated intentions to derive higher development margins by bringing construction and development in house as evidenced by the first half financial results.

In a nutshell, I expect the realised profit, (excluding significant further revaluations), for the year ended 31 December 2013 to be up by circa 50% on the full year to 31 December 2012 with the risk to the upside in my opinion. With a clear and lengthy pipeline of projects and a new CEO anxious to prove himself together with strong tailwinds in the sector I believe we can look forward to highly satisfactory returns in the years ahead.

I plan to accumulate at times of any further weakness.

[Goldstein]

A few more words around the announcement from Norah Barlow can be found in:
http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/financial-results/9588275/Summerset-sales-up-21pc

Looks like the Summerset name is starting to become quite favourable in the sector for those looking to buy a unit. I've said previously this will set SUM apart.

[Bjauck]

I think its fair to say Sum are targeting a slightly different market than Ryman.



I guess it depends on the comparative mix of units for both RYM and SUM being sold during the year which may cause average value of units sold to vary...for example location and average size will have an effect. I think here in Auckland Ryman villages tend to be located in areas where the land values are more expensive...but despite that, the "feel" of the villages is quite similar and they seem to occupy similar niches imo.

[couta1]

What will also set Summerset apart is their excellent care model which they are not willing to sacrifice at this point for the sake of profit,long may this continue,there are some things I can't say on here due to there sensitive nature but needless to say not all in this sector have care near the top of their list anymore.

[percy]

Having strong listed operators MET, RYM and SUM listed,should help lift the standards through the whole sector.

[couta1]

Having strong listed operators MET, RYM and SUM listed,should help lift the standards through the whole sector.
Actually this is only partially true,listed companies are under the public spotlight more via the media but as a company becomes more and more profitable so its shareholders expect even greater profits a lot of shareholders don't care whether some little old lady has 1 or 3 showers a week and don't forget that the care ratio is 1 to 5 in the hospital sections of all facilities listed or unlisted so lifted standards come from proper training of the right people and equipment of a good standard,listed companies can afford the best of equipment but don't always purchase it and don't forget size comes in here as a smaller facility can offer more personalized care as I've observed in some non for profits

[percy]

Actually this is only partially true,listed companies are under the public spotlight more via the media but as a company becomes more and more profitable so its shareholders expect even greater profits a lot of shareholders don't care whether some little old lady has 1 or 3 showers a week and don't forget that the care ratio is 1 to 5 in the hospital sections of all facilities listed or unlisted so lifted standards come from proper training of the right people and equipment of a good standard,listed companies can afford the best of equipment but don't always purchase it and don't forget size comes in here as a smaller facility can offer more personalized care as I've observed in some non for profits

Should MET,RYM,SUM put shareholders before residents they will fail.Their growth proves they are putting residents first.
Smaller players are falling by the wayside,and will continue to do so.Lawyers will be spending a few years yet sorting out the mess some of these small players left in Christchurch because of the earth quakes.

[troyvdh]

Lets us all of hope that there is not an unexpected "surprise/incident" that curtails the never ending spiral of residential house prices......as we all know "we" here in NZ are way far away indeed from what has/is occurred in other countries...i.e. dramatic ups/downs of house values that have wrecked economies ....

Like why is NZ probably immune from such...its my understanding that res prop valuations here have been increasing by 7 % (compounding) over the last 100 years... in addition it was my understanding that "we" change abodes every 7 years....now I believe its closer to 5 years.

Like are 'we" nuts...where does this fascination of res prop come from....its my believe that NZ is quite unique in this respect...like why do folk feel he need to build and live in 300 sq meter homes ...with abundant ensuites to boot....

are we all kidding ourselves that we as a nation deserve to live like this ???...our greatest revenue is bloody milk powder .......

[couta1]

Should MET,RYM,SUM put shareholders before residents they will fail.Their growth proves they are putting residents first.
Smaller players are falling by the wayside,and will continue to do so.
Can I suggest you go and have a look at the Ministry of Health website and have a look at the aged care facilities results,you may get a surprise,their growth prove they are building and selling independent units not that they are putting residents first in their care centers,smaller players will continue to fall by the wayside because of the funding shortfall from the Govt and they can't prop it up with profits from unit sales,cheers

[Bjauck]

Should MET,RYM,SUM put shareholders before residents they will fail.Their growth proves they are putting residents first.
Smaller players are falling by the wayside,and will continue to do so.
It is really a bit like the Golden Arches and Finger lickin' against the small takeaway business and big supermarket chains vs local shops over the past 40 years...we know what happened there and it is now happening with retirement living.

[couta1]

Watch for a break of $3.50 resistance tomorrow, should be no problem with that report released. What was Sparkys valuation again, $4.20?
Mine was $4.20,Roger was$4.33 and Sparkys is now $4.75

[percy]

It is really a bit like the Golden Arches and Finger lickin' against the small takeaway business and big supermarket chains vs local shops over the past 40 years...we know what happened there and it is now happening with retirement living.

Exactly the same.
Largely to do with scale of operations.RYM and SUM are doing everything "in house."Buy the property,design,build and then operate. Smaller guys have no show.Compliance costs on top.!

[Beagle]

Broken through $3.50 this morning, can;t say i'm suprised in the slightest.

Quietly hoping the ACC investment manager returns from holiday really soon and starts selling again, I want more at $3.25 and suspect i'm not the only one :)

[Beagle]

Mine was $4.20,Roger was$4.33 and Sparkys is now $4.75

Slight correction, that's my call for the stock by November and Sparky's by December this year.

I believe the company is worth considerably more than $4.33 on a DCF basis. .

[Goldstein]

The volumes don't seem that big to me given the positive news. Only $800k as I write this. No SSH's.

[Goldstein]

Yeah maybe, although presumably people bought on yesterdays news as well so the Forbarr effect might be a little limited by that. In saying that we are up over 10% this year and 6% the last couple of days so the news IMHO is being reflected.

I certainly have no problem with the price (and I'm certainly not complaining). But $800K is about 0.1% of SUM's market cap. A lot of the trades seem small too. It will be interesting to see what happens as SUM rises up the NZX50 in terms of institutional buying.

[Bjauck]

I certainly have no problem with the price (and I'm certainly not complaining). But $800K is about 0.1% of SUM's market cap. A lot of the trades seem small too. It will be interesting to see what happens as SUM rises up the NZX50 in terms of institutional buying.
It is interesting to compare the volumes and sp movement in SUM which has announced concrete positive news with the movements in XRO on no news.

[JayRiggs]

Speak of the devil!!

https://nzx.com/companies/SUM/announcements/245929

ACC Disclosure of beginning to have substantial holding: On Market purchase of 183,804 shares for net consideration of NZD $641,556.83 on 8th January 2014.

This is strange. They sold some at 3.28 on Friday, then purchased at 3.49 yesterday.
What are they doing?
I'm guessing they repurchased after yesterday's positive sales results, which acted as a buy signal for them.

[Harvey Specter]

So they went below 5% selling in the low $3's and then go back over 5% buying at $3.49. Doesn't sound wise.

[Goldstein]

This is strange. They sold some at 3.28 on Friday, then purchased at 3.49 yesterday.
What are they doing?
I'm guessing they repurchased after yesterday's positive sales results, which acted as a buy signal for them.

The strangest thing is they sold just prior to the announcement with the shares drifting sideways over the past quarter. That's the bit that gets me.

[Goldstein]

I have to admit I don't keep a close enough eye on SUM's typical daily trading volume so can't add much there. $800k does seem a little light though particularly given past ForBarr upgrades in this sector have usually been pretty heavily reflected in the days trading subsequent to the publication.

What is a typical days volume with SUM Goldstien??

Usually between $80K - $300K.

[Beagle]

Not making excuses for ACC, anything but, but I think its fair to say quite a few investors have been taken by surprise by the latest quarter's sales stat's.

I bought more today as the risk to my own conservative case valuation of $4.33 by November 2014 is that it wouldn't surprise me at all if it hit that price straight after the full year results announcement due in late February.

[Goldstein]

OK cheers so nearing on $1m for the day is a reasonably significant increase above the norm. Nothing to write home about though as you point out.

Yep, exactly. ANother thing that puzzles me slightly is there are ususally some big buy orders about 10 - 20c below the current price. I guess the stock is in a sort of free rise (couldn't think of a name that was opposite to free fall).

[Goldstein]

Actually if you take out ACC's $641K then it's looking like a 'regular' day's trading at the high end of volume.

[Goldstein]

I think ACC's trade was yesterday (Jan 8th according to SSH)

Ah, I was wondering why I couldn't find a single trade. Was wondering whether some ACC guy had nothing better to do than drip buy SUM.

[winner69]

ACC could still be buying (or selling) .......don't need to say anything until they buy another 2 mill odd shares ....or go below 5% again

At lease keeping their brokers happy ......and the office person filling in those forms in a job

[Goldstein]

ACC could still be buying (or selling) .......don't need to say anything until they buy another 2 mill odd shares ....or go below 5% again

At lease keeping their brokers happy ......and the office person filling in those forms in a job

Actually this could be construed as market manipulation. ACC employee sells SUM on behalf of ACC, just before an announcement. ACC employee's wife then buys SUM. ACC employee then buys back to send the price north.

Note this is purely a thought experiment - I am in no way suggesting this is the case.

[Beagle]

Please allow me to trump that wild speculation with some of my own that I think is far more plausable.

Its not a great look for ACC to be seen to be activly trading this stock BUT there's a reasonable chance they read too much into this sale announcement from Mr Saunders, figuring perhaps that if the general manager marketing and sales was selling he would be in a position to know the 4Q period sales wern't good.
https://www.nzx.com/companies/SUM/announcements/244071

Although he sold 75,000 shares in mid November, announced to the market on 20 November, this volume isn't a lot in the grand scheme of things, BUT its not a good look for an executive in this position to be doing so and accordingly after this announcement there was a sustained period of weakness in the stock, something many people complained about and this weakness was consistent with a large institution selling down gradually and systematically.

I think its quite plausible that ACC read too much into this noptice and Mr Saunders simply needed the money for some purpose, who knows, buying a decent boat perhaps at that time of year,...anyway the actual sales result for 4Q was such a stunner than anyone thinking the marketing manager had some inside knowledge and following his lead got that call badly wrong.

I have a hunch we've seen the last of the ACC selling for quite a while and in any event it was a good day for holders of this stock...and ACC signalling that they're prepared to be buying again in the 350 range is a good thing for the stock price going forward.

[winner69]

Please allow me to trump that wild speculation with some of my own that I think is far more plausable.

Its not a great look for ACC to be seen to be activly trading this stock BUT there's a reasonable chance they read too much into this sale announcement from Mr Saunders, figuring perhaps that if the general manager marketing and sales was selling he would be in a position to know the 4Q period sales wern't good.
https://www.nzx.com/companies/SUM/announcements/244071

Although he sold 75,000 shares in mid November, announced to the market on 20 November, this volume isn't a lot in the grand scheme of things, BUT its not a good look for an executive in this position to be doing so and accordingly after this announcement there was a sustained period of weakness in the stock, something many people complained about and this weakness was consistent with a large institution selling down gradually and systematically.

I think its quite plausible that ACC read too much into this noptice and Mr Saunders simply needed the money for some purpose, who knows, buying a decent boat perhaps at that time of year,...anyway the actual sales result for 4Q was such a stunner than anyone thinking the marketing manager had some inside knowledge and following his lead got that call badly wrong.

I have a hunch we've seen the last of the ACC selling for quite a while and in any event it was a good day for holders of this stock...and ACC signalling that they're prepared to be buying again in the 350 range is a good thing for the stock price going forward.

Looks like he was only cashing in his bonus/incentive ......to buy Xmas presents

[Goldstein]

Please allow me to trump that wild speculation with some of my own that I think is far more plausable.

Its not a great look for ACC to be seen to be activly trading this stock BUT there's a reasonable chance they read too much into this sale announcement from Mr Saunders, figuring perhaps that if the general manager marketing and sales was selling he would be in a position to know the 4Q period sales wern't good.
https://www.nzx.com/companies/SUM/announcements/244071

Although he sold 75,000 shares in mid November, announced to the market on 20 November, this volume isn't a lot in the grand scheme of things, BUT its not a good look for an executive in this position to be doing so and accordingly after this announcement there was a sustained period of weakness in the stock, something many people complained about and this weakness was consistent with a large institution selling down gradually and systematically.

I think its quite plausible that ACC read too much into this noptice and Mr Saunders simply needed the money for some purpose, who knows, buying a decent boat perhaps at that time of year,...anyway the actual sales result for 4Q was such a stunner than anyone thinking the marketing manager had some inside knowledge and following his lead got that call badly wrong.

I have a hunch we've seen the last of the ACC selling for quite a while and in any event it was a good day for holders of this stock...and ACC signalling that they're prepared to be buying again in the 350 range is a good thing for the stock price going forward.

Yep, I agree. All I'm saying is it is a bad look. Actually I thought about pulling that post.

[Harvey Specter]

Can't take the credit for this information, but just heard that ForBarr has revised their SUM target price from $3.55 to $4.00 and at the same time has downgraded MET from ACCUMULATE to HOLD.
JBWere broker talked my dad out of SUM (which I recommended he get) as he said they prefer MET (due to IFT and superfund). This was at the start of the week I think, before the announcement, as he did buy DIL at my recommendation in the low $4's

[Harvey Specter]

Bugga! I have had few personal dealings with brokers but from what I have heard you need to be very careful and need to make sure you really trust them and their motives (not saying your Dad's broker is dodge though). I guess it's trial and error over time with various brokers to establish trust etc and figure out which ones are good and which ones to avoid.they may well turn out to be right. I agree that the new shareholders will improve MET, but given its size and existing villages, any changes will be slow to show a benefit. SUM, in my view, should therefore be the best this year but longer term, who knows.

However, If IFT and the Superfund thought SUM was best placed, why didn't they buy Quadrants shareholding earlier in the year? Both shares were suffering from a similar overhang.

Thoughts?

[Beagle]

I think that's a timing issue as much as anything else. Infratil only got really liquid late in the year with its sell down of Z. Could be wrong but I personally don't really rate Infratil's investment ability so not especially interested with what they do.

[couta1]

I think that's a timing issue as much as anything else. Infratil only got really liquid late in the year with its sell down of Z. Could be wrong but I personally don't really rate Infratil's investment ability so not especially interested with what they do.
Also think Infratil would have seen Met as a company they could fix up due to their rocky past and management issues where as Sum already have excellent management so maybe they didn't think they could make as much impact or influence the company the same way as taking a stake in Met?

[Harvey Specter]

I think that's a timing issue as much as anything else. Infratil only got really liquid late in the year with its sell down of Z. Could be wrong but I personally don't really rate Infratil's investment ability so not especially interested with what they do.Agree with the first sentence. Re teh second, with the exception of the Europe airports, they have done very well.


Also think Infratil would have seen Met as a company they could fix up due to their rocky past and management issues where as Sum already have excellent management so maybe they didn't think they could make as much impact or influence the company the same way as taking a stake in Met?So IFT saw MET has having the most room fro Growth? Isn't that what we are after as well. As I said above, on a longer time frame, MET will be one to watch. Short term, I like SUM.

[couta1]

Met will also be the first of the 3 to have to spend substantial sums of money on older building maintenance,this will eat a good dose of profit, I think Sum will still surprise once those 6 landbanks are built on and all profits start flowing,I really do like their strategy and there's more money to be made here than Rym IMHO work it out for yourself on 50 k sum shares at say $3.5 and you make a dollar a share over the next year and with the same money you can buy 22k odd Rym shares at $8 and make a dollar a share over the next year over double profit with Sum for same capital outlay and so on the following year until prices come closer together then it changes slightly

[777]

Met will also be the first of the 3 to have to spend substantial sums of money on older building maintenance,this will eat a good dose of profit, I think Sum will still surprise once those 6 landbanks are built on and all profits start flowing,I really do like their strategy and there's more money to be made here than Rym IMHO work it out for yourself on 50 k sum shares at say $3.5 and you make a dollar a share over the next year and with the same money you can buy 22k odd Rym shares at $8 and make a dollar a share over the next year over double profit with Sum for same capital outlay and so on the following year until prices come closer together then it changes slightly

Yes but RYM may go up $2 per share. The market will dictate.

[couta1]

Yes but RYM may go up $2 per share. The market will dictate.
True depends on Aussie venture to a certain extent but from where I'm sitting it looks like Sum will shine brighter than Rym this year just because of where it sits in its growth phase,all good stocks obviously

[In4a$]

True depends on Aussie venture to a certain extent but from where I'm sitting it looks like Sum will shine brighter than Rym this year just because of where it sits in its growth phase,all good stocks obviously
Thats why I like to have a bob each way, takes all the stress out of trying to pick which ones best. Both look great long term IMHO.
Hold RYM & SUM and looking at MET but not sure, might just top up SUM or RYM as oppurtunities arise

[couta1]

Thats why I like to have a bob each way, takes all the stress out of trying to pick which ones best. Both look great long term IMHO.
Hold RYM & SUM and looking at MET but not sure, might just top up SUM or RYM as oppurtunities arise
Stick with Rym or Sum I reckon until you see some results from Met following their takeover situation

[Toasty]

Does anyone know when the dividend is due? I can't find a payment date in the last financial report. Also wondering if the DRP is still in effect. Thanks.

[couta1]

Does anyone know when the dividend is due? I can't find a payment date in the last financial report. Also wondering if the DRP is still in effect. Thanks.
Toasty Divvy will be due end of March and yes DRP still in place, will be interesting to see if there is any increase in Divvy after all those land purchases? Should be a small one I'd say

[Toasty]

Thanks Couta. Seems like a mission to find this stuff sometimes.

[karen1]

Does anyone know when the dividend is due? I can't find a payment date in the last financial report. Also wondering if the DRP is still in effect. Thanks.

Toasty, FYI, if you google 'xyz' co dividend/date, you are bound to find the info you need, plus more. In recent times a lot of NZX companies have started providing a dividend history list which in some cases goes back many years.

[Toasty]

Toasty, FYI, if you google 'xyz' co dividend/date, you are bound to find the info you need, plus more. In recent times a lot of NZX companies have started providing a dividend history list which in some cases goes back many years.

Thanks Karen1. I am a bit specific in my searches sometimes and I forget that most of these answers are a few keystrokes away.

[Snow Leopard]

Thanks Couta. Seems like a mission to find this stuff sometimes.

Just a thought but there is the obscure website called NZX.COM (https://nzx.com), it sometimes has useful stuff on it.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

*It was on display in the bottom of a locked filing cabinet stuck in a disused lavatory with a sign on the door saying "Beware of The Leopard"

HHGTTG

[karen1]

'obscure' is perhaps a good choice oh clever one. NZX made some changes to their website last year, and I find it frustrating now to get the info I want sometimes. By searching the company/dividend, the company website appears very quickly, and almost always once on a company site you can get anything you want. Have noticed in the last couple of years many companies have made vast improvements to their websites, we used to have to dig a lot harder to get info now readily available from most.

Re dividend history, for example, NZX only shows last 3 years, compared to company website showing many years, some cases since year listed.

My tuppence worth!

[iceman]

'obscure' is perhaps a good choice oh clever one. NZX made some changes to their website last year, and I find it frustrating now to get the info I want sometimes. By searching the company/dividend, the company website appears very quickly, and almost always once on a company site you can get anything you want. Have noticed in the last couple of years many companies have made vast improvements to their websites, we used to have to dig a lot harder to get info now readily available from most.

Re dividend history, for example, NZX only shows last 3 years, compared to company website showing many years, some cases since year listed.

My tuppence worth!

I'm with you on this one Karen and find the NZX website frustrating. I am using this site http://www.dividendyield.co.nz/index.php a lot for information on dividends, run by one of our fellow ST members.

[Goldstein]

There's certainly some bigger trades going on with SUM today. Good to see.

[Goldstein]

- although it could just be ACC. Perhaps we should have a sweepstake for when the next SSH comes out for SUM regarding ACC?

Any takers for tomorrow?

[Goldstein]

All the big buys going through today at $3.60. I wonder if we will see a little run up to the FY report.

[MAC]

All the big buys going through today at $3.60. I wonder if we will see a little run up to the FY report.

Well yes, less than six weeks from reporting now, how will it go;

Record new sales of 228 well above the 2013 build rate of 200, gross margins continuing to improve, record revenues, by far the highest land bank at 6 years, well more now actually with the purchase of the two Christchurch sites, steadily moving toward in-house project management, oh yeah and by the way we won the industry award four years in a row.

Shouldn’t be too shabby.

[Beagle]

^^ Well said. What a contrast in the stock ever since the 4Q sales announcement. Before that there was always plenty of volume being added on the sale side, especially before Xmas...and we've now learned that was ACC selling, since the announcement we've had ACC buying back in at $3.50 and very little new volume on the sale side coming to market.

Nice little drift up leading to the annual annoucnement in late February I reckon. My spinnaker is set and I'm enjoying a nice gentle following breeze :)

[Goldstein]

Yep - I'm just really comfortable owning this stock.

[blocker3]

Yep - I'm just really comfortable owning this stock.

Here here me too, Goldstein

Great news once again MAC x4 , onwards and upwards

Cheers

[Goldstein]

Sellers have just dried up below $3.70

[couta1]

Sellers have just dried up below $3.70
Looks like were heading for that $4 mark once end of year financials are out,Ryman trending down over last few days (see my thoughts on that over at last comment on Rym thread) what I'm really enjoying is for every cent Sum goes up I get an extra $1500 on the unrealized profit column so very happy

[Toasty]

Sellers have just dried up below $3.70

I thought we were going to be stuck at $3.65 for ever based on the volume available but it cleared very quickly. Big expectations leading up to report time.

[fiasco]

Looking forward to postive results, everything historically has been tracking along well. I sold my portion at 3.600, played around with Wynard, now purchased back in for the long haul.

[Jasemc]

A good Idea to hold this stock. If you hold it long enough you will be able to afford to retire into one of their villages.:t_up:

[Harvey Specter]

Certainly shows RYM outperforming over the longer term, BUT SUM doing better in the shorter term (particularly the last 3 months). NIce graphs, especially when compared to the Green line. What website are they from?

The 3 month one is influenced by the drop in RYM in the last few days, ignore that and RYM was even. Therefore a bit harsh to judge just on that - they cant be 100% positively correlated. One does have to wonder if being in an international index is effect RYM as Couta suggests. It will be interesting to see how they compare (add MET in there too) going forward.

Disc: happy to be holding all three in roughly equal amounts, especially when looking at the green line. It has been an outstanding sector.

[Bjauck]

Thanks Turmeric for the charts. I checked the ft.com site. They do some pretty good comparative charts. You can produce a chart with sum, met and rym plus the NZX50. They have a 5 year max though. I would attach screen caps here but I am not sure if I would be breaching their ToS. Interesting to see that over 5 years, even MET's returns exceed the NZX50.

[MAC]

Your comment made me take a look at the comparative performance of SUM v RYM over the last 2 years. I've posted the graphs which show the %gains in RYM, SUM and the NZX over 4 time frames; 2 years, 1 year, 6 months, and 3 months.

Certainly shows RYM outperforming over the longer term, BUT SUM doing better in the shorter term (particularly the last 3 months).

Longer term horizon is obviously the more important one and where the real money is made and what these graphs don't show is the even longer term (and far more significant) gains RYM has made over the last 5 years plus.

In saying that SUM has just become my larger holding of the two and it does appear that $4 is imminent.

All appears in keeping with those who see RYM as overvalued and SUM undervalued, let's see if we do get some of that rotation in 2014.

[couta1]

I disagree. The difference over the last 6 months in terms of SP gains is minimal so not sure those that are on record as saying that have anything to write home about yet. Not saying it will or won't happen but as at this point in time they seem to me to be tracking along at about the same rate. Slightly higher Div yield for RYM also needs to be taken into account as well I guess.
IMHO Sums growth outstripping Ryman will be solely Dependant on the Aussie expansion success or not,if Ryman are successful in Aussie then the compounding factor comes into play which will drive growth exponentially but this comes with cautions because although success may appear just that don't forget that true running costs of operating in Aussie won't be known until the care centers are fully operational and with all the extra costs with compliances and higher pay rates and union involvement etc it will take a year or two to see if all of this will affect bottom line profit,if it does it may turn out that their NZ operation ends up subsidizing the Aussie one,but because of where Sum is at in its growth curve and with what its got lined up I'm predicting you'll get more return from Sum than Rym in 2014

[couta1]

Forgot to mention that Sums divvy should increase this year also

[couta1]

I agree with what you are saying re OZ.

Where do you sit on the likelihood of RYM's success in OZ? I'm not in touch at all with this sector but everything posted on ST seems to suggest it is going very well. Interested in your thoughts.
See my post #1897 on Rym thread to check out how progress in Aussie going,I personally believe Rym will succeed in Aussie they are well researched savvy operators but the question remains will that success add to or take away from their NZ success in terms of bottom line profit and annual growth rate?

[winner69]

Couldn't resist with the trusty old linear regression channels - both RYM ans SUM have been perfectly behaved for a long period of time

Since July 2012 RYM shareprice been increasing at 1.04% per week (or 5 trading days) while since Jan 2012 SUM has been increasing at 0.95% per week

Sum been at it longer (that is within a rising channel) but RYM has slightly the higher rate of increase but both a re pretty healthy over an extended period of time.

I see no reason to sell either or to rebalance between the two

There are things going for each that the other has. I think that RYM will always be seen to be 'overvalued' compared to the 'undervalued' SUM. As such until some bad news from either or external shocks that will affect both both will continue their steady rises - at about the same rate. The trend / numbers are saying this.

[couta1]

Couldn't resist with the trusty old linear regression channels - both RYM ans SUM have been perfectly behaved for a long period of time

Since July 2012 RYM shareprice been increasing at 1.04% per week (or 5 trading days) while since Jan 2012 SUM has been increasing at 0.95% per week

Sum been at it longer (that is within a rising channel) but RYM has slightly the higher rate of increase but both a re pretty healthy over an extended period of time.

I see no reason to sell either or to rebalance between the two

There are things going for each that the other has. I think that RYM will always be seen to be 'overvalued' compared to the 'undervalued' SUM. As such until some bad news from either or external shocks that will affect both both will continue their steady rises - at about the same rate. The trend / numbers are saying this.
Nice work winner but I don't think the graphs allow for the fact that Sum has only recently started lining all its ducks up with its large strategically placed land bank,in house design and having been considerably undervalued until recently compared to Rym,of course both are excellent choices

[winner69]

Nice work winner but I don't think the graphs allow for the fact that Sum has only recently started lining all its ducks up with its large strategically placed land bank,in house design and having been considerably undervalued until recently compared to Rym,of course both are excellent choices

Agree all good things happening

Maybe these things were needed to keep the trend going, a bit of renewed momentum - the trend was getting a bit weak wasn't it

Maybe these things will be the start of a new steeper uptrend ....even steeper than 1% a week

Maybe the worlds markets will collapse in the next few months (May maybe) and all shareprices willfall(to give future buying opportunities)

Who knows what will happen

[alistair85]

I'll be topping up on the upcoming news, hope the above doesn't happen!!

[troyvdh]

Bless you Winner..I believe I have posted in the past that this is all surreal...no share price escalation goes on for ever..despite that logically it should....like if it were so simple then buying shares would be a no brainer ????...like elderly care shares and make a fortune yes....so far all good...but life is not like that...do any of us remember BIL RJI baycorp...THL....so what am I saying ..not sure but winner you are right...."who knows what will happen "....yes I hold MET RYM SUM...and am happy...but honestly folks the party aint going to last for ever...it never has....troy

[MAC]

Forgot to mention that Sums divvy should increase this year also

I do sincerely hope not Couta, what I total disappointment it would be for a great company like SUM, still in a solid enduring growth phase, to constrain what their growth rate could be by distributing larger dividends.

I'd much prefer they instead nudged the 2015 target build rate of 300units/year forward a little, IMHO that would be in the better interests of long term SUM investors.

The FY12 dividend was $5.4M, compared with $72.2M invested in new villages, I know it's a coarse assessment but the build rate could have been circa 7.5% higher.

[PartyPooper]

Was able to increase my holding from 2000 to 5500 today and hopefully will be able to top up another 2k soon. Lets see if I get 3rd time unlucky and SUM goes into a downtrend after i buy =( highly doubt it but I feel cursed sometimes.

Anyway I agree with MAC hopefully they keep the divi small and reinvest in new villages or increasing their land bank even further.

[couta1]

I do sincerely hope not Couta, what I total disappointment it would be for a great company like SUM, still in a solid enduring growth phase, to constrain what their growth rate could be by distributing larger dividends.

I'd much prefer they instead nudged the 2015 target build rate of 300units/year forward a little, IMHO that would be in the better interests of long term SUM investors.

The FY12 dividend was $5.4M, compared with $72.2M invested in new villages, I know it's a coarse assessment but the build rate could have been circa 7.5% higher.
Agree with your thoughts but I think we will see a small increase on last years 2.5c/share divvy,time will tell

[Goldstein]

I do sincerely hope not Couta, what I total disappointment it would be for a great company like SUM, still in a solid enduring growth phase, to constrain what their growth rate could be by distributing larger dividends.

I'd much prefer they instead nudged the 2015 target build rate of 300units/year forward a little, IMHO that would be in the better interests of long term SUM investors.

The FY12 dividend was $5.4M, compared with $72.2M invested in new villages, I know it's a coarse assessment but the build rate could have been circa 7.5% higher.

The Dividend Reinvestment Plan is in effect now MAC. Not sure what the take up rate is though.

[JayRiggs]

Just a wild guess.
I think they will increase the dividend by 50% to 3.75c.

February last year the share price was about $2.50 with a 2.5c dividend. SUM has gone up about 50% since then, so 3.75c dividend is my prediction.

[winner69]

Bless you Winner..I believe I have posted in the past that this is all surreal...no share price escalation goes on for ever..despite that logically it should....like if it were so simple then buying shares would be a no brainer ????...like elderly care shares and make a fortune yes....so far all good...but life is not like that...do any of us remember BIL RJI baycorp...THL....so what am I saying ..not sure but winner you are right...."who knows what will happen "....yes I hold MET RYM SUM...and am happy...but honestly folks the party aint going to last for ever...it never has....troy

Hi troy and a happy new year to you

Yes we are in surreal times .....I only do these charts to track trades and to let me know when to start looking to sell. The RYM and SUM and the DLX charts are 'surreal' examples of just holding and watching. The DIL chart was a great example of staying until the trend changes.

Trend theory says that a primary trend stays in place until things (either stock related or external) happen to change that trend. For Rym and Sum I think it more likely external factors will be the thing that changes that the trend, something like a general market correction.

I have this filed away to remind me time and again why the trend is your friend. It is from an article on Dow Theory -

Many traders and investors get hung up on price and time targets. The reality of the situation is that nobody knows where and when the primary trend will end. The objective of Dow theory is to utilize what we do know, not to haphazardly guess about what we don't know. Through a set of guidelines, Dow theory enables investors to identify the primary trend and invest accordingly. Trying to predict the length and the duration of the trend is an exercise in futility. Hamilton and Dow were mainly interested in catching the big moves of the primary trend. Success, according to Hamilton and Dow, is measured by the ability to identify the primary trend and stay with it.


As you say troy this cant go on forever. I wouldn't be surprised to see Rym at 5 bucks something and Sum at 2 bucks something in the future. If so i will have sold and the current charts become irrelevant, they would have done their job and probably new charts will need to start with new trends.

Yes ...who knows what may happen next ..the charts don't predict that

Troy nice to hear from you again - God bless

[Food4Thought]

Happy New Year Share Trader readers. Great to see SUM doing well and heading North at a smooth rate. The up and coming results will be favorable and I imagine all those SUM employees who get SUM shares included in their employee incentives package will be ensuring that this year results and next years are results to be stoked about. Good luck to all the investors out there this year. Hope 2014 is a positive one for you. Remember to enjoy life when and while you can, you never know when a quick change will happen. Cheers

[winner69]

Winner, thanks for the charts and the comments to go with. You've probably mentioned this before,, but what triggers a sell? I note the RYM one seems to have gone below the channel at one point but presumably this didn't flag a sell at that point?

Also why 0.5 stdev for RYM and .3 for SUM?

Cheers.

Going below the line is a signal to (consider) selling. discipline or ill discipline that decision becomes subjective, mainly because I hate being trigger happy. In RYM case when it went below the most it went below was 11 cents so a bit of wait and see stopped the selling.....the ill discipline bit is when do you actually sell then.

Different stddev to make the channels best fit with the price action .....in theory the channel lines need to contain all prices in the trend - ie line up the highs and/or lows (but not necessary both. On the SUM chart the prices are above the upper channel line - I just being lazy and not changing the std dev to make them all fit.

[Beagle]

IMHO Sums growth outstripping Ryman will be solely Dependant on the Aussie expansion success or not,if Ryman are successful in Aussie then the compounding factor comes into play which will drive growth exponentially but this comes with cautions because although success may appear just that don't forget that true running costs of operating in Aussie won't be known until the care centers are fully operational and with all the extra costs with compliances and higher pay rates and union involvement etc it will take a year or two to see if all of this will affect bottom line profit,if it does it may turn out that their NZ operation ends up subsidizing the Aussie one,but because of where Sum is at in its growth curve and with what its got lined up I'm predicting you'll get more return from Sum than Rym in 2014

I think that Sum's the situation up very well, (sorry, couldn't resist that pun :) )

[alistair85]

When can we expect the next announcement from SUM?

[couta1]

When can we expect the next announcement from SUM?
Anytime depending on what sort of announcement your waiting for?

[MAC]

When can we expect the next announcement from SUM?

The FY13 results are due in around 5 weeks time, typically in the last week of February, 24th through 28th, SUM will lets us know more precisely soon.

[couta1]

Anytime depending on what sort of announcement your waiting for?
What I was aluding to hear was apart from the obvious end of year announcement was we could also hear of another resource consent coming through like one for the Boulcott site in Lower Hurt,now that would be nice wouldn't it

[Goldstein]

Of course. The next announcement was always going to be an SSH by ACC.
https://www.nzx.com/companies/SUM/announcements/246350

I wondered what was affecting the price yesterday.

Looks like they've made a typo in the announcement. The % holding has changed but the number of shares has not.

[Jasemc]

Retirement sector taking a bit of a downward slide in the last while reasons?

[JayRiggs]

Retirement sector taking a bit of a downward slide in the last while reasons?

I think it's just a general pullback in share price and the US markets going down overnight. RYM and SUM were looking a bit overbought the past week. I'm always keen to buy after a pullback!

[Goldstein]

Retirement sector taking a bit of a downward slide in the last while reasons?

Not sure, but it is interesting to ACC's recent bit of juggling.

They sold AUM, ARG and NZO and bought DIL.

So perhaps the tech sector is leeching some funds off other sectors. ALso pending interest rate rises may be seen to affect property prices a bit.

[Goldstein]

Retirement sector taking a bit of a downward slide in the last while reasons?

Not sure, but it is interesting to ACC's recent bit of juggling.

They sold AUM, ARG and NZO and bought DIL.

So perhaps the tech sector is leeching some funds off other sectors. ALso pending interest rate rises may be seen to affect property prices a bit.

[mrjeems]

ACC confident about the announcement?

[Goldstein]

ACC confident about the announcement?

Sorry Mrjeems, not sure what you mean there.

There's also a rather sad story about a Canadian rest home in the Herlad this morning. http://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/news/article.cfm?c_id=2&objectid=11191345

I wouldn't think this would have an impact, but you never know. The volumes aren't big.

[clip]

Not sure, but it is interesting to ACC's recent bit of juggling.

They sold AUM, ARG and NZO and bought DIL.

So perhaps the tech sector is leeching some funds off other sectors. ALso pending interest rate rises may be seen to affect property prices a bit.

Am i reading the SSH wrong (have i been reading all SSH's wrong?)

For this disclosure,—
(a) Total number held in class: 7,127,653
(b) Total in class: 83,776,155
(c) Total percentage held in class: 8.508%
For last disclosure,—
(a) Total number held in class: 7,977,963
(b) Total in class: 83,776,155
(c) Total percentage held in class: 9.523%

Does this not infer they have sold DIL?

[Goldstein]

Am i reading the SSH wrong (have i been reading all SSH's wrong?)

For this disclosure,—
(a) Total number held in class: 7,127,653
(b) Total in class: 83,776,155
(c) Total percentage held in class: 8.508%
For last disclosure,—
(a) Total number held in class: 7,977,963
(b) Total in class: 83,776,155
(c) Total percentage held in class: 9.523%

Does this not infer they have sold DIL?

Nope, it's me being too quick again clip. Thanks.

[clip]

The FY13 results are due in around 5 weeks time, typically in the last week of February, 24th through 28th, SUM will lets us know more precisely soon.

NZX & ASX RELEASE
24 JANUARY 2014
TIMING OF FULL YEAR ANNOUNCEMENT
Summerset is pleased to advise that its preliminary 2013 full year financial results will be released pre-market on Tuesday 25 February 2014.

And there we have it

[MAC]

NZX & ASX RELEASE
24 JANUARY 2014
TIMING OF FULL YEAR ANNOUNCEMENT
Summerset is pleased to advise that its preliminary 2013 full year financial results will be released pre-market on Tuesday 25 February 2014.

And there we have it

We could be seeing a nice top up opportunity here right before the full year, softness in the Chinese economy doesn't affect Summerset's business at all, not one little bit, the respectful oldies just keep doing what they do, as do the good SUM folk working hard in the villages.

[Bjauck]

I would have thought that softness in the Chinese economy is relevant for SUM as it would be to the NZ economy as a whole. Simply put a bad or worsening Chinese economy will mean less income internationally. Given the highly leveraged NZ property market, this would result in a more than proportionately softer NZ property market. The retiring folk would have less money to buy into a retirement village.

[winner69]

I would have thought that softness in the Chinese economy is relevant for SUM as it would be to the NZ economy as a whole. Simply put a bad or worsening Chinese economy will mean less income internationally. Given the highly leveraged NZ property market, this would result in a more than proportionately softer NZ property market. The retiring folk would have less money to buy into a retirement village.

as well as the impact on investor sentiment .... might not want to pay 20 plus earnings for SUM

[couta1]

So the Dating credit rating agency is hardly followed outside of China,business as usual after a small blip,keep building those units

[couta1]

I mean Dagong,these predictive spelling tablets are a pain

[Mista_Trix]

Going below the line is a signal to (consider) selling. discipline or ill discipline that decision becomes subjective, mainly because I hate being trigger happy. In RYM case when it went below the most it went below was 11 cents so a bit of wait and see stopped the selling.....the ill discipline bit is when do you actually sell then.

Different stddev to make the channels best fit with the price action .....in theory the channel lines need to contain all prices in the trend - ie line up the highs and/or lows (but not necessary both. On the SUM chart the prices are above the upper channel line - I just being lazy and not changing the std dev to make them all fit.

What software do you use to put the standard devs over the current SP data?
Thanks :)

[Toasty]

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/money/9651906/Broker-taking-a-conservative-view-on-Summerset

FB rated SUM a hold. I find it interesting that the centres take a while to reach profitability. I would have thought that given the demand they would be largely filled by the time construction was completed. Pre sales are usually a major component of any development. At least they are "well positioned".

[couta1]

Great buying opportunity here today for those who have some spare money,get them while you can:cool:

[MAC]

You never know with the brokers which stocks they are flipping for clients at any particular time also, international or domestic.

What has been overlooked by Forsythe Barr, in their article at least, is the sales and marketing advantage Summerset have over the competition with their long standing position as the award winning market leader in the sector.

It may not be as hard to fill these new villages as some may think.

[couta1]

You never know with the brokers which stocks they are flipping for clients at any particular time also, international or domestic.

What has been overlooked by Forsythe Barr, in their article at least, is the sales and marketing advantage Summerset have over the competition with their long standing position as the award winning market leader in the sector.

It may not be as hard to fill these new villages as some may think.
Exactly and demand will fill them quickly that's for sure

[clip]

How low do people see SUM going this time? sub 3.20 by last double-bottom or around 3.35 via upward trend? (Not sure if i'm doing this charting thing right, be happy for any corrections/suggestions/advice!)
5398

[TideMan]

Hi there
I'm new to this share trading game, but I have experience in data analysis for scientific time series data.
One thing I've noticed in clip's plot as well as the plots on Direct Broking that I think is strange is that you plot moving average to the end of the sampling window, whereas in my work I always plot it to the middle of the window. Thus, the MA calculated for today in a 30 day window would register at 15 days before today.
Plotting it to the end of the window means that peaks and troughs are displaced from when the actual peaks and troughs occurred.

[clip]

That's likely because it is using the default settings of 5/10 day MA's, I did not increase it as I normally would when using a 6 month sample size - Was only looking at the SP line in the above chart to draw the lines over it. (Again I am new to this as well so not sure if what I have done is correct or accurate :) )

[Lorne Ranger]

That's likely because it is using the default settings of 5/10 day MA's, I did not increase it as I normally would when using a 6 month sample size - Was only looking at the SP line in the above chart to draw the lines over it. (Again I am new to this as well so not sure if what I have done is correct or accurate :) )

Nice try, but the price drop is not specific to Summerset. Its a general mini-panic, fuelled by herd mentality. Nothing has changed for Summerset, which has been undervalued for far too long, so I doubt it will drop much further and will be one of the first to recover. IMHO>

[winner69]

At last .....SUM outperforming RYM today ...at least % wise

[couta1]

Nice try, but the price drop is not specific to Summerset. Its a general mini-panic, fuelled by herd mentality. Nothing has changed for Summerset, which has been undervalued for far too long, so I doubt it will drop much further and will be one of the first to recover. IMHO>
Amen to that,what would brokers know about the inside workings of Sum anyway

[Lorne Ranger]

Amen to that,what would brokers know about the inside workings of Sum anyway

I wouldnt listen to brokers unless non-brokers are saying the same thing.

Remember they are called "brokers" for a reason....

[couta1]

I wouldnt listen to brokers unless non-brokers are saying the same thing.

Remember they are called "brokers" for a reason....
Hopefully people are selling because of a general downturn and not like sheeple because a broking company thinks its going to cost a little more to get care centers up and running,why do they think that the care centers are built after the independent units are built and sold? Cash flow of course,accounting 101 here

[MAC]

I wouldnt listen to brokers unless non-brokers are saying the same thing.

Remember they are called "brokers" for a reason....

If I may be forgiven for being a little bold, their release did seem to ring a little of timely bias also, and I wouldn't be surprised to hear they have a client ready to buy the dip.

Only Forsyth Barr would attempt to spin a view that an increase in build rate from 200 to 300 in 2015 is somehow bad news.

[winner69]

I'm assuming you are talking in terms of absolute values?

Turmeric - just that SUM price moved 3% today compared to RYM moving only 1%

[MAC]

As an addendum;

If in four week’s time SUM report an entirely unlikely drop in gross margins due to the new villages not being adequately utilised or not yet productive, as Forsyth Barr suggest, I shall print this post out and eat it, someone do remind me.

[AndyLP]

As an addendum;

If in four week’s time SUM report an entirely unlikely drop in gross margins due to the new villages not being adequately utilised or not yet productive, as Forsyth Barr suggest, I shall print this post out and eat it, someone do remind me.


As I'd pay good money to see this anyway - this is win / win for me!

[Beagle]

Forsyth Barr...Promoted Credit Sails CDO's to elderly retired investors as a safe investment... resulting in a multi million dollar settlement with clients based on grossly misleading sales tactics.
Forsyth Barr Promoted Feltex to its clients as a strong buy.
Forsyth Barr couldn't help get their hands very dirty in the South Canterbury Finance fiasco.
Forsyth Barr consistently underperform year after year in the compartive stock picking stakes with their competitor stockbroking firms.

I used to deal with them years ago... My opinion is they have very little credibility as a firm.
More interested in what ACC are doing to be honest...buying at $3.50 and selling at $3.66 recently suggests anything outside that range is an opportunity.

[Zaphod]

Perhaps investment companies such as Forsyth Barr have helped to depress the price in the short term with their re-ratings. If that is the case, then perhaps we should be thanking them for creating such a buying opportunity for us?

As far as how far SUM will fall, it is almost impossible to predict so I don't even bother to try. Given the strong sales announced and the great long-term track record of the company, I'm continuing to buy on the current weakness. A risk yes, but relatively low IMO and after all, risk is what this game is all about.

[couta1]

Perhaps investment companies such as Forsyth Barr have helped to depress the price in the short term with their re-ratings. If that is the case, then perhaps we should be thanking them for creating such a buying opportunity for us?

As far as how far SUM will fall, it is almost impossible to predict so I don't even bother to try. Given the strong sales announced and the great long-term track record of the company, I'm continuing to buy on the current weakness. A risk yes, but relatively low IMO and after all, risk is what this game is all about.
Well said its amazing how gullible people are as they hold companies like FB in oracle status,great buying op for those with some money,ACC will be back in for more soon for another trade for some quick profit soon as we all anticipate the upcoming results for the year,interesting FB say accumulate Ryman and hold Sum I think the reverse should apply IMHO

[Goldstein]

The article regurgitated on Stuff this morning - actually this is worded even more strongly.
http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/money/9655596/Aged-care-sector-now-less-appealing-for-investors

Does anybody else find the line of reasoning flimsy? They're essentially saying I better sell up because SUM is expanding their operation.

Forsyth Barr - SUM would not build if there wasn't a demand. I suspect they are better placed to make this assumption than you are. Also, brand new units seem to appeal to the retirement folk I know.

As far as minimum wage rises go, this is just another thing management will handle carefully. Some cost may have to be passed onto the residents, but I suggest this won't impact demand for Summerset units.

If you applied Forsyth Barr's reasoning to other companies you wouldn't invest in anything. I for one back SUM management over Forsyth Barr.

[MAC]

I look at it this way, if that is absolutely the best Forsyth Barr can come up with as a means of knocking the stock down so their clients get a good short term buy, then Summerset is doing really very very well as a going concern.

DISC: Downgrade of Forsth Barr to Morningstar status.

[couta1]

Its really annoying when these so called experts talk so much crap,the demand is massive and ever increasing and we all no that except FB of course,as for the minimum wage issue that case is far from becoming law at this point in time and the likes of Sum and Rym are well able to take this in their stride as opposed to the smaller companies and not for profits,this will have zero impact on building new units or reselling existing ones

[Toasty]

Normally I would be horrified to see an article like this and the resulting declining shareprice. However this time all I can think about is at what point I will grab another chunk of these. FB produced no concrete information imho that would point to SUM not being consistently and quietly successful.

[Beagle]

Normally I would be horrified to see an article like this and the resulting declining shareprice. However this time all I can think about is at what point I will grab another chunk of these. FB produced no concrete information imho that would point to SUM not being consistently and quietly successful.

You're not alone...I'm just hoping for one more bout of irrational selling.

[MAC]

How about some of those numbers;

Net margins have been improving steadily for SUM since the IPO as the company has become self-sustaining, this does actually of course incorporate all those opening and ramping costs of new villages as they have come along.

The build rates have increased in that time from 100, to 150, to 200 and the goal is for 300 units/year in 2015, who knows beyond that. We haven’t seen a drop in margins Mr Forsyth Barr due to that ramp rate acceleration, in fact margins are going up really rather quickly!

As the fleet of villages continues to expand net margins will continue to improve, my estimate for the February report is for a net margin of 62.5%.

It is easy to forget that it is still relatively early days for SUM compared to the more mature RYM and MET companies and that the SUM business is much earlier in its growth phase and is also on a much steeper curve.

It’s all in the future for SUM, there is a lot of forward growth potential for this company.

5401

[winner69]

Nice chart mac and impressive trend

Can't quite reconcile the numbers - how do you define Net Margin

[MAC]

Nice chart mac and impressive trend

Can't quite reconcile the numbers - how do you define Net Margin

http://www.investopedia.com/terms/n/net_margin.asp

[winner69]

http://www.investopedia.com/terms/n/net_margin.asp

Ok but some would use the Total Income line and not the Total Revenue line as the denominator, assuming this is what you have done.

Problems with using such ratios on these typos of companies. Never mind as long you are consistent it shows a good trend. If fair value number is really high you could even get over 100%,

[horus1]

Forsyth barr are correct that hospital services do not make money for a start But they do give a complete package and will well justify the position Summerset have taken over the medium /long term

[couta1]

Well said its amazing how gullible people are as they hold companies like FB in oracle status,great buying op for those with some money,ACC will be back in for more soon for another trade for some quick profit soon as we all anticipate the upcoming results for the year,interesting FB say accumulate Ryman and hold Sum I think the reverse should apply IMHO
As I thought ACC back in trading mode yesterday

[Food4Thought]

I look at it this way, if that is absolutely the best Forsyth Barr can come up with as a means of knocking the stock down so their clients get a good short term buy, then Summerset is doing really very very well as a going concern.

DISC: Downgrade of Forsth Barr to Morningstar status.

< Hilarious > :) nicely put

[Harvey Specter]

Nearly down to its 50 day MA. If it drops below, I maybe tempted to top up.

[MAC]

Good to see FB re-assessing their view and position of a couple of weeks ago,

Summerset appeared to be hitting all its goals in terms of new developments in the retirement village sector.

"The key with them is how their margins are doing and whether they are achieving them."

Summerset is also on Forsyth Barr's list of 10 companies which it expects to have earnings per share growth in excess of 20 per cent.

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11198168

Now they’ve seen the light, ........, they’re forgiven;

DISC: Reinstatement of Forsyth Barr from Morningstar status

[Harvey Specter]

DISC: Reinstatement of Forsyth Barr from Morningstar status
So they told their clients to sell, and now to buy. Must be good for business.

[winner69]

Good to see FB re-assessing their view and position of a couple of weeks ago,

Summerset appeared to be hitting all its goals in terms of new developments in the retirement village sector.

"The key with them is how their margins are doing and whether they are achieving them."

Summerset is also on Forsyth Barr's list of 10 companies which it expects to have earnings per share growth in excess of 20 per cent.

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11198168

Now they’ve seen the light, ........, they’re forgiven;

DISC: Reinstatement of Forsyth Barr from Morningstar status

Summerset appeared to be hitting all its goals in terms of new developments in the retirement village sector.

"The key with them is how their margins are doing and whether they are achieving them."

That bit is actually from Brad Gordon of Macquarie Wealth

The Forbar bit is later on in the article

Another downgrade for FB?

[fiasco]

I suspect the price has been battered as a result of some investors/traders heading towards other most fashionable stocks as of late. Picked up a few more this morning, looking forward to the results in March.

[Harvey Specter]

I suspect the price has been battered as a result of some investors/traders heading towards other most fashionable stocks as of late. Picked up a few more this morning, looking forward to the results in March.Keeping my eye on it.

[couta1]

I suspect the price has been battered as a result of some investors/traders heading towards other most fashionable stocks as of late. Picked up a few more this morning, looking forward to the results in March. Still cheap buying at these prices,Rym in the same boat at the moment,when the stock has 6 in front of it in a few years you won't be worried about fashionable:cool:

[MAC]

SUM seems to be looking quite good at this point being fundamentally sound, not that I dabble too much in the TA side, but I did buy a few this morning on behalf of a family member, couldn’t resist buying a dip smack on the primary trendline. Looking forward to the FY on the 25th.

[couta1]

agree totally moosie, sp price has come down to match long term up trend level, should find support at these levels.
the trend is your friend and I started to take a position this morning
Welcome to the flock Snapiti I'm :cool: sure you'll enjoy the ride

[couta1]

Youroosie_900;461152]MAC you have done well. SUM is at an ebb right now and is a definite buy within the $3.30-$3.35 range based on past oscillationsand charts. Will look great in 3-4 weeks, mark my words.

disc - not holding but looking seriously at buying on the usual weakness. History repeats, repeats, repeats... :)[/QUOTE]
You wont see $3.30 IMHO, she upward from here,strong buy signal Moosie,i might have bought a few more but all my funds are tied up over at sub ground Xro:cool:

[Xerof]

Gee, I hope the phrase "great minds think alike" is valid, as I bought in at the open as well. Got tired of waiting at 337 yesterday, so pulled the order, but got them at 335 in the auction.

[couta1]

Gee, I hope the phrase "great minds think alike" is valid, as I bought in at the open as well. Got tired of waiting at 337 yesterday, so pulled the order, but got them at 335 in the auction.
Xerof I think you'll be very happy with your move in a few weeks,will be interesting to see if the price hits or exceeds its $3.75 high after the results given the current market sentiment in general

[couta1]

Gee, I hope the phrase "great minds think alike" is valid, as I bought in at the open as well. Got tired of waiting at 337 yesterday, so pulled the order, but got them at 335 in the auction.
Xerof I think you'll be very happy with your move in a few weeks,will be interesting to see if the price hits or exceeds its $3.75 high after the results given the current market sentiment in general

[MAC]

I’m revisiting today Summerset's long term forecasts including build rate of course;

http://www.summerset.co.nz/assets/Investor-Centre/NZX-2012/2012-11-Summerset-purchases-19th-site.sml.pdf

“The company is on track to deliver its IPO forecast of 155 retirement units in the 2012
financial year and now plans to build at least 200 retirement units in the 2013 financial year.“

“Summerset has also upgraded its longer term build rate indicating it is targeting to build 300 retirement units per annum by the 2015 financial year”.

It’s a subtle distinction, ‘in’ versus ‘by’.

I’m just interested in gauging how the market may have treated and absorbed this advice, either way a 50% increase in build rate over the next couple of years is both notable and impressive enough.

Have you interpreted this target as being ;

As delivering 300 units per annum in (during) the FY15 year, or,

As delivering 300 units per annum by (the start) of FY15 ?

[winner69]

If I had written this I would have been meaning 300 units in/during FY15

Corporate speak I use/hear/read BY usually means that year

If it is by some chance meaning FY14 (ie by FY15) you would have thought they would have said 300 in FY14 .... sounds a lot more impressive than by FY15

[MAC]

Agree, and I’ve only found one confirmation buried deep in the FY12 report;

“This strengthening of development processes along with additional banking facilities from our banking syndicate has seen us upgrade our projected build rate to 300 retirement units per annum by the end of the 2015 financial year”.

This suggests that over the next two years the growth rate for SUM is roughly going to be;

Build Growth Rate = (50/200) = 25% pa, good enough.

That’s just growth in new build of course, it's a couple of years of occupancy later that we see high re-sales and turnover.

At 4Q13 the YOY growth rate in re-sales was 64.5% reflecting a surge in turnover from the previous step increase in build rate in 2011.

I see this re-sale rate remaining at higher levels going forward reflecting the acceleration in build rate over the last couple of years

Onward and upward.

Edit: let's respectfully not forget that re-sale turnover to we investors is also respectfully our seniors moving on.

[Harvey Specter]

A 10 page brochure in the NZHearld today drumming up buyers for Hobsonville and Karaka.

[Harvey Specter]

I have to apologise - I just topped up a bit, hence why it has decided to fall even further. At this price it is a steal so where are the buyers?

[baller18]

hmm... should I wait.. or pounce on this opportunity...

[baller18]

hmm... should I wait.. or pounce on this opportunity...

[MAC]

It is a very peculier dip today given we are likely to see 50% plus in earnings growth in less than two weeks time, I can't help but wonder if it's a correlation thing with RYM breaking down.

A question for the TA’s;

If fundamentally RYM is likely to go flat for a while and SUM is ready for a re-rating to the upside, how to those that just buy and sell the sector correlation resolve this ?

[couta1]

It is a very peculier dip today given we are likely to see 50% plus in earnings growth in less than two weeks time, I can't help but wonder if it's a correlation thing with RYM breaking down.

A question for the TA’s;

If fundamentally RYM is likely to go flat for a while and SUM is ready for a re-rating to the upside, how to those that just buy and sell the sector correlation resolve this ?
IMHO its just a spin off from Rymans downturn as it may have run a bit ahead of itself,your see the reverse affect occurring upon Sums results,didn't think it would go to or below $3.30 though,great buying for those with spare money,see what happens tomorrow,maybe it will be Mets turn for a drop?