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View Full Version : FTSE off 3.15%, DOW 2.08%, NZSX50?



Toddy
27-07-2007, 07:56 AM
Its going to be a tough day at the office today. I might head out fishing instead.

Hoop
27-07-2007, 08:15 AM
Toddy
Might not be as bad as you think.
The huge drop in our dollar will counteract our dual listed stocks.

Will I have egg on my face find out at 10am [:o)]

QOH
27-07-2007, 08:22 AM
Could get very ugly. Think I'll head for the golf course.

bk
27-07-2007, 08:30 AM
I hope not - been beaten up enough in the US markets the last few days:(!

On a positive note, I have high hopes for NZO to come good the coming days:)

also - is this the beginning of THE END, or just a correction in an otherwise booming market?

And where are those hurricanes when you need them - I want the price of oil to go up so my mainly oil related stocks can recover.

Hoop
27-07-2007, 08:39 AM
This is the type of day you do [u]not</u> want go fishing or to golf.
I have been cashing up lately waiting for a day like this to happen.

[u]Bargain day.</u>[:p][:p][:p][:p][:p]

I could be buying today [}:)][8D]

Major von Tempsky
27-07-2007, 08:39 AM
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=asM1Tjg4ssK4&refer=home

Yeah, could get interesting. Might be some good bargains in quoted leveraged share warrants etc [8D]

kissssik
27-07-2007, 08:41 AM
BK....just a blip..IMO there are not enough mums and Dads in the market yet.

bk
27-07-2007, 08:58 AM
quote:Originally posted by kissssik

BK....just a blip..IMO there are not enough mums and Dads in the market yet.

hope you're right

-just got an urgent email from my son -&gt; sell NZO. Not wise I think!

bermuda
27-07-2007, 09:00 AM
Overall the US is recording positive GDP growth but the mortgage blowouts are really hurting.
Stay in oil.
NZ dollar at 78.23.That's a reasonable one night fall.

trendy
27-07-2007, 09:03 AM
PPT was at work today and managed to save a larger decline...if Chrysler bonds can't be given away then watch out. Many HFs will fold.

http://www.theage.com.au/news/business/chrysler-crisis-and-the-plunge-into-chaos/2007/07/26/1185339167308.html

Hoop
27-07-2007, 09:03 AM
Bk
NZO is one I'm watching as a possible buy

bermuda
27-07-2007, 09:06 AM
Definitely a day for a long lunch.There's going to be a bit of blood around.
Hoop,
Wait for the days low on NZO and then get in before next weeks Tui news.

morpork
27-07-2007, 11:00 AM
Only 1 share in positive territory,Brierly the biggest loser so far,
why did I top up my NZO yesterday

Hoop
27-07-2007, 11:16 AM
Morpork, I looked at Brierley too.
A big currency difference here. Last traded at S$1.64 on the Singapore Ex this relates to NZ$1.35...however that was yesterday. Today is another story. SGX is due to open, It will be interesting to see which way the Asian stocks go today.

ratkin
27-07-2007, 11:52 AM
2 or 3 percent is nothing , just look at the chart since the start of the year. Needs a decent correction of 10 - 15% , this could be just the start , i wouldnt be to eager to rush in for "bargains" vluations still very high

Hoop
27-07-2007, 12:35 PM
Yeh you're right Ratkin.
Nothing really stands out today. Going to keep my hands in my pockets.
Let see what Monday brings.
Right I'm off to do an honest days work.

777
30-07-2007, 09:13 AM
NZ market down less than .5%. Not quite the sell off expected by all the news reports this morning. They will be disappointed.

nelehdine
30-07-2007, 09:16 AM
FPH up almost 2% .... been a poor performer for many many months due to the rise of the NZD ... has the tide finally turned for one of NZ's most innovative businesses ??

Disc: Hold FPH ... bgt at 348 and 324 over recent weeks.

FPH 333 +7

Toddy
30-07-2007, 09:43 AM
Cheapest Stocks in 16 Years Draw Investors Amid Rout

By Lynn Thomasson and Eric Martin

July 29 (Bloomberg) -- Investors are preparing to snap up shares of telephone, health-care and computer companies after last week's $2.1 trillion global stock market rout left U.S. equities the cheapest in 16 years.

``The window for buying is starting to open,'' said D.A. Davidson & Co. chief market strategist Frederic Dickson, who oversees $23 billion. His Great Falls, Montana-based firm plans to buy drug and technology stocks as long as bond market losses don't worsen.

D.A. Davidson, LPL Financial Services and Credit Suisse Group, which manage a total of $771 billion, are bullish after the biggest decline in the Standard & Poor's 500 Index since September 2002. The benchmark for American equity is valued at 15.4 times estimated profit, the lowest since January 1991, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Only 33 companies in the S&P 500 gained and the index slumped to a 3 1/2-month low last week. The index plunged 4.9 percent on concern mortgage defaults caused by the steepest U.S. housing slump in 16 years will reduce corporate loans and end the boom in leveraged buyouts that pushed the measure to a record high earlier this month.

Merck & Co., based in Whitehouse Station, New Jersey, and AT&T Inc., in San Antonio, were among just four Dow Jones Industrial Average members to advance last week after their earnings grew faster than the S&P 500 average. The Dow average dropped 4.2 percent last week and the Nasdaq Composite Index lost 4.7 percent.

Profit Growth

Earnings among the 313 members of the S&P 500 that reported second-quarter results rose 9.7 percent, twice the average of analysts' estimates on July 13. One hundred one members are scheduled to report results this week.

Average profit among S&P 500 members is forecast to rise 9 percent this year and 11 percent in 2008, according to analysts surveyed by Bloomberg. They estimate phone companies will grow this year by 27.8 percent, health care by 15.8 percent and technology by 10.5 percent.

``The fundamentals in my opinion are quite strong,'' said Lincoln Anderson, who helps manage $150 billion as chief investment officer of LPL Financial in Boston. ``The second-half earnings outlook is pretty doggone good. I look at this period as more of a buying opportunity.''

Anderson said he added to holdings in telephone, health- care, technology and industrial shares during the slump.

Fell the Least

Phone stocks fell the least among S&P 500 industries last week, losing 1.3 percent. AT&T, the largest U.S. telephone company, reported a 61 percent increase in second-quarter profit. Its shares trade for 14.4 times estimated earnings after rising 31 percent in a year.

Jeffrey Mortimer, who manages almost $40 billion as chief investment officer of equities at Charles Schwab Investment Management in San Francisco, bought Palo Alto, California-based Hewlett-Packard Co. and Armonk, New York-based International Business Machines Corp., whose profits have topped analysts' estimates the last six quarters.

``They are still under-owned by people who have been burned by them and their underlying fundamentals are stronger than the investment public is giving them credit for,'' Mortimer said.

Michael Cuggino, who manages $1.2 billion as president of Permanent Portfolio Funds in San Francisco, purchased shares of Santa Clara, California-based Intel Corp., the world's biggest computer-chip maker, and Symantec Corp., the No. 1 seller of security software. Symantec is based in Cupertino, California.

Worst Performers

Technology shares gained 8.1 percent from 2005 through 2006, the least among 10 industry groups in the S&P 500. They have climbed 9.7 percent this year.

Rising defaults in the housing industry prompted Kevin Caron, who helps oversee $20 billion as market strategist for Ryan Beck & Co. in Florham Park, New Jersey, to be ``defensive'' and keep 35 percent of his clients' assets in cash.

``We've had a real struggle in the last year finding thin

Hoop
30-07-2007, 09:52 AM
Nelehdine
This has been one on my watchlist lately. Fridays slight rise was questionable... todays bigger rise is good enough for me.
My toes are in the water on this one just bought 5000 FPH shares.
Still risky on my part considering that tonight will tell if the Dow Jones enters it's secondary correction phase or not.

nelehdine
30-07-2007, 10:04 AM
338 +12 .. almost 900k shares changed hands so far this morning. They are a quality outfit at FPH, make great products and are increasing market share in the all important US market. If the NZD has peaked , and that is a very big IF , then FPH at these sorts of levels represent a tremendous buying opportunity for the medium term.

Well done for taking the plunge Hoop, I hope you will be rewarded for your bravery.

Kookaburra
30-07-2007, 11:02 AM
quote:Originally posted by Hoop

Nelehdine
This has been one on my watchlist lately. Fridays slight rise was questionable... todays bigger rise is good enough for me.
My toes are in the water on this one just bought 5000 FPH shares.
Still risky on my part considering that tonight will tell if the Dow Jones enters it's secondary correction phase or not.

minimoke
05-08-2011, 07:31 AM
Another big toady today. The Dow Jones industrial average was down 4.3%. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index was down 4.78 %. The Nasdaq Composite Index was down 4.82%. The FTSEurofirst 300 index of top European shares closed 3.43%. Nikkei up 0.23 and Hang Seng down 0.49% What are we up for here. I'll throw in 4.5%

Hoop
05-08-2011, 08:06 AM
Hi Minimoke
Yeah..a guessing game before the opening....I'll pick about -1.8% at close
My reason for a lesser lower sharemarket drop than you minimoke is because the -3.2% drop in the NZ$ today will factor into the valuation equation.
Edit yep agree Belg a big drop at the opening as everyone stampedes to the exit door ..Ive added at close to my post

minimoke
05-08-2011, 09:35 AM
Edit yep agree Belg a big drop at the opening as everyone stampedes to the exit door ..Ive added at close to my post
I'll take my bid at close. I reckon sell off during the day and pause for reflection over the weekend with buyers back in next week. Only 2.3% down so far - hopefully I'm miles out!

Blendy
05-08-2011, 10:03 AM
I'm hoping my buying this morning will pay off....

craic
05-08-2011, 10:13 AM
Boy am I glad I dropped 82gs worth of tel at 262 a week or so ago. I was trying to pick the top but the following days - up to 267 - caused me to lose a lot of sleep and to wonder if my wife's assessment of my intelligence was right after all. had another look at my birth cert. and my parents marriage cert. and at least I know that the second half of her assessment was wrong.

Hoop
05-08-2011, 10:33 AM
Boy am I glad I dropped 82gs worth of tel at 262 a week or so ago. I was trying to pick the top but the following days - up to 267 - caused me to lose a lot of sleep and to wonder if my wife's assessment of my intelligence was right after all. had another look at my birth cert. and my parents marriage cert. and at least I know that the second half of her assessment was wrong.

Good one Craic:cool::):):)

minimoke
05-08-2011, 04:19 PM
Well thats me down 2.5% - not as bad as I'd have thought. NZX down 2.9% and Aust All Ord 4.4% so far. Could have been worse - until Monday.

Hoop
08-08-2011, 11:37 AM
Well NZ markets didn't think much of S&P's downgrade of US. Down 3% which, to me at least, comes as big supprise. Will be interesting to see how Oz markets respond. If not so bad - will we see a rally on the NZD?

Yes i did not expect this bigger of fall of 3%..It seems overdone....dropping from AAA to AA+ has only a minimal effect on a country...Remember we (NZ) were AAA a year ago.. the AA+ downgrade had no visible effect as far as I could see.
Also it was well telegraphed that S&P would probably downgrade...the whole world knew it ...only seemed to come as a surprise to the US Treasury.

We are in the grips of market fear atm so I guess we should expect irrationality.


IMHO...Europe is the trouble spot we should be watching not USA... Greece and Portugal are peanuts...its Italy economy and Ireland's unbelievably insane 2 trillion debt mountain we should be afraid of... big time!!!

Master98
09-08-2011, 06:07 AM
another tough day DOW below 1100.

percy
06-09-2011, 07:31 AM
[

NZ50 to 3,100? I don't think so (yet!) as earnings season has proven NZ Inc is generally okay. NZ dollar has tumbled again too which provides a buffer to NZX valuations. Still a fun day for the brave.

Power dry, all charges primed, short fuse and ready to pull the buy trigger. Fundie stuff![/QUOTE]
Made my day.Great post.Nice to know you are "well positioned" and holding yourself at the ready.Spent my dry powder unfortunately on extra AWF and CCC and rest has to go to help out second daughter buying a flat.But with so many of my NZ shares looking so good,and some nice divies coming along all should be well.Wish I could say the same for my Aussies.I think there is a lot of truth in the old saying about a long term holding,being a short term one that didn't work out right.!!!!

Hoop
06-09-2011, 09:25 AM
Falling below 3320 during the minicrash early August confirmed the primary bear tide

We are in a Bear Market Cycle Stage 1.....the denial stage.

simple chart from yesterday tells it all....

http://www.imageurlhost.com/images/g9ks09x1rp7znfg8r4p3.png

Hoop
06-09-2011, 02:24 PM
Hoop, Nice graph ... but it also shows the same shenanigans of last year (June/July/Aug) and look what happened after that.

Hence I'm not too convinced that we're in the denial stage (LOL - I'm in denial :) ). If we look back in a years time I suspect we'll be in agreement that the bull is still in tact and the primary trend line was drawn too steep (i.e. June/July/Aug last will looks like just another correction along the road with the new primary trend line being drawn under this years foolishness.)

"be optimistic when all others are pessimistic, and pessimistic when all others are optimistic". :)

Belg you admit you are in denial????...hang on,,,,, I'll clean my glasses and reread your post:D:D

Yeah OK ...you got me...posting very simple charts has its negatives...yes last JJA was a BMcorrection that broke the primary trendline (that happens)....however I don't rely on one or two indicators or charts I incorporate many into my analysis and I get very complicated and think in networked 3D....e.g..think of the Equity market as a gearbox flywheel ..now inside that gearbox are the cogs which all spin in different cycles and speeds but always shows the same various positions everytime when the outer gearbox flywheel does a complete revolution and stops at the same cyclic moment... Systems theory... but if you follow my posts I call it the ducks lining up in a row.

I wrote a lot about this regarding the bottoming out of a bear cycle on the Investing during secular bear market cycles thread ...not much though in regard to topping out of the bull market...however somethings are similar...Volatility is high at the change of cycles...Earnings still increase as equity market decreases...Copper correlation disconnects near equity cycle changes then reconnects (see copper is now reconnected again ..(Correlated)...etc etc..

Some late lagging ducks have not lined up bonds etc...A lot of Government interventions as well as this latest Bull market cycle rose very steeply and died (??) very early ... perhaps the bear may do the same.

The average life of a cyclic bear for the S&P500 is 10 months We only think of the big nasty ones e.g Year 2000-2002... 2007 -2009 which last longer than normal.

Belg... with a bit of luck this cyclic bear may be shallow.. have good sucker rallies and short lived say 6-9 months (peak to bottom) The good news is that the peak was 3 months ago The bear may be in its 2nd of 3 phases already....
...by the time your denial:) is over the bear market may be over....and you will be saying what bear market???:)..eh

Try reading this book........Anatomy of the Bear by Russell Napier..... He gives a lot of indications to look for when deciding at what stage the Bear cycle could be at.

winner69
07-09-2011, 09:48 AM
Good on the NZ50. Up to start with and kicking the shenanigans overseas where it hurts and focusing on the 50's fundimentals!

Prob what happens when x dollars has to go into a tiddly market of $50 billion ... have to find a home for the little bit allocated to NZ anyway .... even ACC will run out of opportunities one day when they own 5% of everything

Major von Tempsky
23-09-2011, 07:57 AM
Hope u r paying taxes on that Belge, like a responsible citizen should....

Hoop
23-09-2011, 09:10 AM
The interesting thing about the 3 indexes is that they are still in a cyclic bull market cycle..and therefore exhibit bull behaviour not bear behaviour.
It's possible and likely that the cycle has changed but not yet showing.(lower highs and lower lows). But until then rallies are not treated technically as sucker rallies but bull market corrections ...Warning but chart formations atm are very bearish.

Now the more interesting thing .....the economies that weathered the GFC the best such as China Australia Brazil and others their stockmarkets are all in various stages of a cyclic bear market and their rallies must be treated as Sucker Rallies.

Now...the NZX50 is a little strange and unnerving as it is holding up very well probably thanks to telecom and a few others in the index and maybe the flood of money from the World Cup and Dairy payouts could be helping. It has to fall to below 2929 to become a bear market ..still a long way considering its bear Neighbour Australia (AllOrds).

When Bull markets commence falling by creating lower highs but not yet at a point of producing lower lows it is called a bear tide ...these tides are obviously precursors to a cyclic bear market cycle. The 3 markets named in this thread have been in a bear tide for a while now.

Bear tides cause Phaedrus MSI to go red so for disciplined medium to long term investors they shouldn't have bought in a while and be in the process of selling down as when their stocks create sell signals which are strictly adhered to.

Hoop
24-09-2011, 12:24 PM
Sorry couldn't resist it :D...An Unashamed ad to my post on the investing strategies and the secular bear market (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?5171-Investing-strategies-and-secular-bear-markets&p=357567#post357567) thread.

A chart of the DOW showing the crash then a rise up of the new cyclic bull market cycle...an unexpected large correction which seems to threaten the life of a young bull market cycle with the sudden drop (Dead Cat bounce) DCB that usually a pause in the continuing trend ...Bulkowski describes a DCB as a road kill on the trend highway....so I have drawn a dotted arrow downwards well below the 2009 crash bottom....

My question is with the current scenerio of good company fundamentals atm can this chart be seen as realistic when stocks seem well underpriced ...is it remotely possible that this downtrend could keep going down.
Click on the thread above :)

http://www.imageurlhost.com/images/nsen8akrmxghmy08sqi.jpg

Toulouse - Luzern
26-09-2011, 09:36 AM
NZX Today few minutes ago - top gainers:
HLG 3.350 +5.35%
PPL 0.810 +2.53%
TWR 1.450 +2.11%
NZO 0.650 +1.56%

Looks like daylight saving adjustment not made - it maybe GMT

Hoop
26-09-2011, 10:04 AM
Pretty mooted start to the day ... Some bid/offer spreads getting bigger and trivial volumes ... What? Do I smell capitulation in the air? ... Probably not quite as US/European mkts still have plenty of issues to work through. ... Strategy for today ... accumulate in low volume stocks I like and watch the big, more liquid ones and keep an eye on that NZD.

Yep..keep an eye on that NZD
They say when an equity turns down go to cash
However this saying might not apply to downunder cash atm. see NZ$ Index chart
Even worse is buying or holding downtrending NZ and Aus shares that are denomated in a downtrending Aus and NZ$

......hmmm...interested in buying Kiwi /Ozzy shares atm???.... Nahhh..no thanks!!!

Disc 80% cash ( in my trading account about half in an uptrending currency)

http://www.imageurlhost.com/images/ezyvwd8bdn0vb93p5san.png