CUE-> Pantheon of small oil stocks [Archive] - Page 2

Crypto Crude

11-08-2008, 07:34 PM

phaedrus-OK Shrewdy, I'll spoon feed you, if that's what you really want. It looks like today is the day, giving Shephejame an entry into CUE at 22 cents.

goo goo ga ga...
hey Phaedrus...
no need to spoon feed me, but if you really want to take me out for lunch then im a starter...:)...
I think bermuda was offering to take Skol out for lunch, so perhaps the two king pins could take us less immortals out.. huh...
Interesting to note you tipped CUE at 22cents on the 4th of this month, on this thread and the very next day the SP hit 20.5cents (on the 5th)...
hum.... thats rather interesting given the fact that your charts are presented in such a way that picking the absolute bottom sounds like clock work...
Im sitting on an average somewhere between 21.6-21.7c...(have not worked it out after my last purchase)...
Oil down 5 bucks over the weekend, and Cue sideways...
this will perform if the DOW falls to 9k and Oil falls to 90 bucks...
It dont matter... fundamentals to strong to ignore this stock indefinately into the future...
The bearish sentiment has stifled buyers, but they will come...
Im prepared to back the truck up and put everything I have on it, but I just cant bring myself to sell up my other positions...
we will have to be patient...
30 cents in November....
On the downside CUE will finish the year at 30cents....
on the upside CUE Will finish the year at $1...
risk return very good... (bar huge market risk)...
If the market tanks then CUE will tank, but then so will all other stocks...
Its best that you hold CUE then...
thanks...
:cool:
.^sc

brettdale

11-08-2008, 08:06 PM

I would hold if I owned, but I'm in no mood to buy.

Phaedrus

11-08-2008, 08:13 PM

Interesting to note you tipped CUE at 22cents on the 4th of this month, on this thread and the very next day the SP hit 20.5cents
I didn't "tip" CUE, Shrewdy - I simply pointed out that the trendline had been broken. Anyone wanting confirmation of this buy signal might like to wait for the Stochastic oscillator to trigger a Buy signal or for the OBV to rise (it is flat-lining). You seem to think that a subsequent intraday low of 20.5 somehow detracts from the trendline break signal. It doesn't. For the trendline break signal to be proved "right" CUE would need to Close above 23. For the trendline break signal to be proved "wrong" CUE would need to Close below 20.5. Until either of these occur, the jury is still out on the "worth" of this signal. Intraday highs and lows don't count.

Interesting... given the fact that your charts are presented in such a way that picking the absolute bottom sounds like clock work...
You're not paying attention, Shrewdy. The indicators and chart patterns shown here have their "Buy" signals triggered by price rises. Can you not see that, by definition, such a system can NEVER EVER buy at the absolute bottom?

Crypto Crude

11-08-2008, 08:27 PM

Phaedrus-I didn't "tip" CUE,

phaedrus-OK Shrewdy, I'll spoon feed you, if that's what you really want. It looks like today is the day, giving Shephejame an entry into CUE at 22 cents.
If this aint a tip off, then I dont know what is!
whats all this, today is the day talk...
giving "shephejame" an entry into cue at 22c...
Id feel for the poster that bought because you said buy, and now you come across undecided and run to the techs for cover....
Should Shephejame now sell or continue to hold?
given that your previous advice has now changed...
:)
.^sc

shasta

11-08-2008, 08:36 PM

If this aint a tip off, then I dont know what is!
whats all this, today is the day talk...
giving "shephejame" an entry into cue at 22c...
Id feel for the poster that bought because you said buy, and now you come across undecided and run to the techs for cover....
Should Shephejame now sell or continue to hold?
given that your previous advice has now changed...
:)
.^sc

If Shephejame knew you Shrewd, they'd be holding there CUE as long as you do ;)

Crypto Crude

11-08-2008, 08:57 PM

Corporate

11-08-2008, 09:20 PM

[/qoute]
Do some research, it is plain to see... 3.5 m barrels of oil 2P...[/QUOTE]

SC - nice post. Isn't it more like 2.5? (5% of 50m current 2p reserves).

Phaedrus

11-08-2008, 09:30 PM

Shrewdy, I think you are being deliberately obtuse.

"whats all this, today is the day talk...giving "shephejame" an entry into cue at 22c..."
That was the day of the trendline break as discussed previously.

"and now you come across undecided"
I have merely pointed out that other indicators are yet to fire. Are you unfamiliar with the concept of confirmation? This, too, was discussed in my original post ("Better yet, why not wait until both criteria are met") I'm sure Shepejame understood perfectly well. Why can't you? When buying, we all have to decide on the level of confirmation we require before acting.

"Should Shephejame now sell or continue to hold?"
Pay attentionShrewdy. I have already spelt out what it would take to make the trendline break signal "wrong".

"given that your previous advice has now changed..."
Huh? Steady on lad! I suggest that you go back to my original post on page 12 and read it again. Carefully this time.

"Id feel for the poster that bought because you said buy"
Save your faux sympathy SC. Shepejame certainly appreciated my opinion :- Phaedrus, what can I say except that your post is probably the best reply I have had to a question during my time at ST. It is also very assuring that I came to the same conclusion in relation to buying when the SP breaks the Magenta line. Many thanks for the time you put into the post.

HE was happy with my response, that's the important thing - your opinion doesn't matter.

Here we have a stock you have fallen in love with and I get all this grief for posting a BUY signal! Incredible!

nzoiler

11-08-2008, 10:40 PM

tricha

12-08-2008, 09:34 AM

First post on this site-only discovered it very recently!
Shrewd Crude we share your sentiments on CUE and were buying solidly for several weeks-average now 22cents.
Both my colleague and myself were in CUE around the time of JERUK 1 when CUE went from 6-30+ CENTS and now are 100% in again and are both positive that CUE will grow to be worth multiples of its present SP over the next couple of years.
CUEs small highly experienced management team, large investment by SPC, huge 2P gas and oil reserves rapidly approaching the production phase, plus 2 free carried high impact wells later this year are a potent combination.

A lot of money has been sitting on the sidelines waiting for cobra1 I believe. If Cobra is positive SP will leap-OSH is clearly very interested in that section of HEDINA sandstone, interested enough to drill in a third sidetrack.

If Cobra is Negative, a small sell off is probable that will be rapidly absorbed and not of any significant volume.

We are very happy to have been able to accumulate our investment at 22cents and holding longer term.
Very very undervalued and massive upside from here IMO.
A future blue chip company.

Best of luck to all investors in CUE.

Welcome to Sharetrader Oiler.

Great to have some fundamental analysis for CUE moving forward.
Hopefully u will keep on posting here while Shrewd goes on holiday.
If Cobra sucessful it will be a short lived one.

Its very quite simple.

Cobra + = trend line broken and the price moves up.

Cobra - = trend line remains broken.

Like u and Shrewd quite rightly pointed out, it does not matter where the trend line is, as long as you are on board the boat and u r not at the Fremantle Railway station watching it leave.;)

With oil companies things tend to change in a blink of an eye. With what CUE has going, there will be a lot of Blinking :rolleyes:

Phaedrus

12-08-2008, 10:19 AM

Trendlines. The root cause of this problem AA is the fact that CUE is in a decelerating downtrend. This happens on occasion and the net result is a series of trendlines being drawn and then broken as the downtrend becomes progressively shallower. So, both of your trendlines are correctly drawn. Your yellow one is #8 and your red one is #9. Both were broken before they were confirmed.

Trends. We are interested here in monitoring the "medium-term" trend that began back in May. Now, this gave a series of lower highs and lower lows all the way down to the point marked LOW. At that point, CUE went into a short-term uptrend (marked by light green trendline) as it twice made a higher high after a higher low ending at the point marked HIGH. That short-term uptrend is a component of the medium term downtrend, just as the current medium-term downtrend is a component of the long-term uptrend.

Trends are assumed to be in effect until they are reversed. CUE's medium-term downtrend has now made a Low, a High, and a Higher Low. To confirm a medium-term uptrend (ending the current medium-term downtrend) it would have to make a Higher High by Closing above 23 cents.

A Close below 21 cents would confirm a new short-term downtrend (a lower low after a lower high) and a new Low of below 20.5 cents would mark the continuation of the medium-term downtrend.

http://h1.ripway.com/Phaedrus/CUE812.gif

STRAT

12-08-2008, 10:35 AM

If Shephejame knew you Shrewd, they'd be holding there CUE as long as you do ;)Id be inclined to agree with that:D

Regarding Phaedus though I think you are off the mark Shrewdy. He presented the indicators as they appeared on the day. I read "Today is the day" to mean the SP had met or broken the Trend line but thats all. "giving Shephejame an entry into CUE at 22 cents." meant if she was to buy on that indicator alone then today would be the day she would do it. Not a suggestion that she should. TA never predicts the bottom but indicates it has been and gone soon after the fact ( and its not fool proof )

Thats just how I read the posts.

Mysterybox

12-08-2008, 11:19 AM

thanks Phaedus, and thx AA for linking me to this.
am watching

UD, was thinking the same thing (double top creating resistance ?) but unsure.. can we span it from that far?
thx.

Phaedrus

12-08-2008, 11:29 AM

tricha

12-08-2008, 12:32 PM

It was resistance at 29 cents that caused the Double Top. It would not be unreasonable to expect resistance again at that level. The resistance at 22 cents and at 23 cents needs to be overcome first though! UnderDog has referred to this in a previous post.

U R a gutless wonder Phaedrus, at leat Skol put up.

U on the other hand.

No disclosure and never wrong :rolleyes:

jdg

12-08-2008, 12:37 PM

steady on, tricha. i think the vast majority of posters greatly appreciate Phaedrus's commentary. maybe just a wee bit harsh there, mate.

-j

duncan macgregor

12-08-2008, 04:18 PM

thanks shasta....
......
Im not going to post on the CUE thread until the SP hits 27 cents...
Its just plain offensive to see the SP languish....
If it does not hit that price then I will never post here again...fact...
Remember the last time I said that, This time I mean it for real...;)...
Last time I said it it took awhile but eventually went Kaboomm....

To readers out there,
you are plain mad if you are not buying CUE (and you are holding other stocks)...
sell your house... sell your NZO shares (;))...
Do some research, it is plain to see... 3.5 m barrels of oil 2P...
likely to be 6 Million barrels of Oil (including Manaia- sure thing tie in) plus Gas reserves... and current revenues of around 45million per year, for a 135 M cap with two free Oct wells...
sell the cat... rip an arm off and pawn it in...
Sell your blood... forget about Christmas Presents... have three of them next year....

this is the best oil stock I have ever seen in
5 years of investing...
bar nothing...
No more ramping....
I wont reply, I wont debate with others...
Ive been back in for 3 weeks give or take and this just ain cricket...
Im out of here....
I hope to say I'll be back soon, I cant be sure when that will be...
Tell your mother, tell your sister to watch this stock...
Outskies.... bye...
:cool:
.^sc SHREWDY, You are starting to sound like SNOOPY raving on about RBD, boxing yourself into a corner because of your love affair with CUE. Its a very big mistake picking bottoms, you end up covered in pooh. Its also a very big mistake to ignore market sentiment which can be found in charts from the past. The time to buy CUE is when the market gives a buy signal, not before as you are doing. Look at the sp of NZO downtrending as it makes huge bank deposits from production, like never before. Work out what moving average suited the sp in the past, then take that as your buy signal. Dont ever think that you are so right that you cant be wrong. CUE has been a dead loss of late downtrending, dont jump the gun. Macdunk

STRAT

12-08-2008, 04:44 PM

Work out what moving average suited the sp in the past, What?:eek:

I thought it was 30 days for everything :D

upside_umop

12-08-2008, 05:15 PM

tricha

12-08-2008, 10:12 PM

thanks shasta....
......
Im not going to post on the CUE thread until the SP hits 27 cents...
Its just plain offensive to see the SP languish....
If it does not hit that price then I will never post here again...fact...
Remember the last time I said that, This time I mean it for real...;)...
Last time I said it it took awhile but eventually went Kaboomm....

To readers out there,
you are plain mad if you are not buying CUE (and you are holding other stocks)...
sell your house... sell your NZO shares (;))...
Do some research, it is plain to see... 3.5 m barrels of oil 2P...
likely to be 6 Million barrels of Oil (including Manaia- sure thing tie in) plus Gas reserves... and current revenues of around 45million per year, for a 135 M cap with two free Oct wells...
sell the cat... rip an arm off and pawn it in...
Sell your blood... forget about Christmas Presents... have three of them next year....

this is the best oil stock I have ever seen in
5 years of investing...
bar nothing...
No more ramping....
I wont reply, I wont debate with others...
Ive been back in for 3 weeks give or take and this just ain cricket...
Im out of here....
I hope to say I'll be back soon, I cant be sure when that will be...
Tell your mother, tell your sister to watch this stock...
Outskies.... bye...
:cool:
.^sc

U R onto it Shrewd :p

I'm joining u, 27 cents it is.

U has Skol who is pumping airlines and does not hold them :rolleyes:

U have Phaedrus who is holding thin air and does not know it :rolleyes:

And u have that piece of work " Sector Surfa " back again with his positive attributes.:D

We will see u at 27 :cool:

nzoiler

12-08-2008, 11:52 PM

I completely agree 100% with SHREWDCRUDES sentiment on CUE.
Have progressively accumulated a large holding at 22cents and would be continuing to buy at these present bargain basement levels if more investment capital was available.

Anyone who is new to CUE Energy read the following Oil and Gas Gazette article posted on CUE website and make your own mind up.

http://www.cuenrg.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=31&Itemid=44

When you have read that you will understand why I consider it to have far superior potential to NZO.

Two comments we have found of further interest were:
*2 further wells to be drillled at JERUK next year.
*A possible Taranaki Basin farmin.

I also agree with SHREWDCRUDES analysis of Manaias potential to boost the greater Maari field to near 100million barrels.

Thanks for your welcome TRICHA / SHREWD.

There is really nothing more to say that has not already been speld out by SHREWDCRUDE etc on here. Will also wait for the 27cents to post

Best of luck to all CUE investors.

Rabbi

12-08-2008, 11:53 PM

Hi Shrewd Crude.

It is and exercise in futility to argue with this market, as it is not trading on fundamentals, but fear and panic. And it could be some time before any sort of sanity prevails. Accordingly, in this climate, TA is pretty ineffective.

If you think that Cue is bad, you should be a holder of some of the other oilers- like Beach-then you would be justified in ranting. Despite Cue trading at a significant discount to NVA , it is nowhere near as bad as some of the others.

I hope to bring my mate Bob- who has a truckload of Cue-, to the Christchuch Convention and you can both cry into your beer. In the meantime, my advise is, batten down the hatches and be stoic.;)

yogi-in-oz

13-08-2008, 05:46 AM

:)

Hi folks,

CUE ..... if you think it's bad now ... maybe check on it tomorrow 13082008,
especially, if it breaks down through key support, at 20.5 cents ... and again,
later this month, around 28082008, as we see 2 strongly negative cycles
move in on CUE ..... will be alert for a low around that time.

Next round of positive time cycles and the first sign of recovery for CUE
is expected, around 26-29092008 ..... :)

October 2008 should be a good month for CUE, especially around
09-13102008 and 28-29102008, with a negative cycle between,
expected on 23102008.

November 2008 should be also positive for CUE, in the first 3 weeks,
but from 21112008-to-month's end, we expect to see three (3)
significant and negative time cycles in play.

December 2008 - Expecting minor and positive news from CUE,
around 15-16122008.

January 2009 ... significant and positive cycle 08012009.

February 2009 ... positive spotlight on CUE, on 23-24022008.

More later.

have a great day

paul

:)

=====

STRAT

13-08-2008, 09:01 AM

, TA is pretty ineffective.

.;)Hi Rabbie,

Im keen on this story ( Thanks Shrewdy ) but basic TA has kept me out thus far. Lets see how ineffective that turns out to be over the next month or so.

jdg

20-08-2008, 06:14 PM

AA, i don't think your patience will be tested. first oil next month and zeus drilling october. cheap CUE is soon to be a thing of the past. i think it will be mid 30s by the time the zeus drill is ready to go (almost certainly more if cobra proves to be commercial). both short and long term this looks to be an excellent play.

-j

da puntzda

22-08-2008, 02:05 PM

Stronger buying interest all of a sudden

jdg

22-08-2008, 02:31 PM

two good company announcements today. 3d seismic survey beginning in the camarvon basin and cobra looking like it might yet give us some cheer. if the latter occurs, shrewd will be back posting sooner rather than later. should know by monday (third time lucky for cobra?). if cobra fails, however, punters may have one more shot at accumulating in the low 20s - but i see downside as pretty limited. it's going to be an interesting ride from here on in.

-j

tricha

23-08-2008, 01:30 AM

Arr Phaedrus (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/member.php?u=4593) the great one.

U did not pick the bottom, ???????????????????

U see Shrewd is a technical analyst, based on facts, where as, you are based on, sorry to say this, the past.
Historical bull....

U see the bottom was based on the price of oil, not facts.

U either believe in " peak oil or u do not "

Gold is here forever, oil is gone forever.]

And CUE has it.;)

Jess9

23-08-2008, 08:12 AM

Not sure yet if I jumped the gun on Friday, but in for the ride to 30+ fingers crossed now ; ) Watching that chart daily through; hoping this is not a sideways trend...

Corporate

23-08-2008, 09:54 AM

I hope it is the start....but the jump wasn't on great volume

AMR

23-08-2008, 10:08 AM

Tricha, you better be good or else Phaedrus will do a graph of your averaging down in AZA!

Phaedrus

23-08-2008, 10:31 AM

Arr Phaedrus, the great one Your adulation is misplaced, Tricha. I am quite good, but "great" is a bit over the top, I think.

U did not pick the bottom... You're not paying attention here Tricha. I have already pointed out that indicators and chart patterns have their "Buy" signals triggered by price rises. Can you not see that, by definition, such a system can NEVER EVER buy at the bottom?

U see, Shrewdis a technical analyst, based on facts whereas you.... Shrewdy is intelligent enough to use ALL methods at his disposal. In his own words "I appreciate your charts and TA is a very good suppliment to FA..." This sensible, balanced approach is something you could perhaps aspire to.

U are based on, sorry to say this, the past. Historical bull.... The past is historical FACT not bull.... Those that ignore the past are doomed to repeat it. In any case, signals are triggered by current price action. You simply can't get any more up to date than that.

U see, the bottom was based on the price of oil, not facts. Huh? The price of Oil is not a fact? I can't follow your reasoning.

U either believe in "peak oil" or u do not Tricha, for me, CUE is just another stock to be traded. I lack your passionate convictions and belief systems - and see this as an advantage. I have no emotional ties to this or any other stock so I can view CUE objectively and dispassionately. You can't.

I still find it hard to believe that I have attracted such heated criticism for posting CUE BUY signals. Imagine the outrage, the personal abuse, the gigantic fonts and the garish colours should I post a SELL signal!!!!

I don't know what your real problem is, Tricha, but I am certain of one thing - it will take more than a couple of Panadol to fix it!

tricha

23-08-2008, 10:38 AM

Tricha, you better be good or else Phaedrus will do a graph of your averaging down in AZA!

Phaedrus would do WELL to disclose what he has bought, he actually said AZA was a bottom at 92 cents, he probably went and bought some himself, but who knows, he has never lost a trade.

But on the bright side, flogged this of sharescene, watch this bonus space. Peter Strachan from stockanalysis puts a value of 80 cents a share to CUE if it strikes.

The bonus factor is CUE will go off regardless and thanks to Shrewds fundamental analysis, I bought lots and was lucky to double dip @ 21 cents.

Australia’s MEO on target at Zeus-1

By Upstream staff

Australian minnow MEO is on track to drill the Zeus-1 well targeting a multi-trillion cubic feet play off Western Australia around the end of October after completing a geographic sweep of the site prior to the semi-submersible drilling unit arriving.

The shoot in permit WA-361-P in the offshore north Carnarvon basin was recently completed by Fugro and confirmed the absence of anomalous features on the sea floor, identified the seabed terrain and provided sufficient shallow geological data to enable the anchorage of the semi-submersible drilling unit Songa Venus.

The probe is targeting a multi-trillion cubic feet gas prospect next to fields developed by the North West Shelf Venture gas project.

The Department of the Environment, Water, Heritage and the Arts has advised this week that the drilling of Zeus-1 will not be considered a controlled action under the Environmental Protection and Biodiversity Conservation Act.

Songa Offshore, the operator of the Songa Venus drilling rig, has confirmed the unit is on track in its current work programme and sees the vessel expected to start set-up and drilling of Zeus-1 around 31 October.

Meo holds a 60% stake in the permit through its North West Shelf Exploration unit, while Cue and Gascorp Australia hold 20% each.

jdg

25-08-2008, 09:24 AM

STRAT

25-08-2008, 09:54 AM

we should get the results of cobra wirelines this morning. it will be interesting to see how the market reacts. limited downside on a duster would be a very positive sign.

although, given the problem with this drill, who would be surprised if we have further delays...?

fingers crossed, then, we get a result. and pull out the rabbits feet in the hope of commercial discovery.

-jWhat to do?, what to do? lol :D

Plenty of buy signals but no volume.

I suspect the recent price appreciation is in lead up to the results you speak of. So a non comercial result will push the SP back some.

jdg

25-08-2008, 10:14 AM

I suspect the recent price appreciation is in lead up to the results you speak of. So a non comercial result will push the SP back some.[/QUOTE]

yip, that's a fair assumption but i'd temper it with the fact that the sp ran to 30c (seemingly) on anticipation of the cobra drill and has fallen well back since. also, how many people have held off buying - waiting on the result? a few factors to consider, but if there hasn't been any more delays (surely there wont be more delays...) all will be revealed this morning, perhaps.

for what it's worth, i'm expecting oil/gas shows that wont be commercial. that's my gut call. i will obviously be most happy if i'm wrong. either way i think cobra is a sideline to the (first) main event - maari. if there's a small retrace on news that cobra is non-commercial, i expect it to be little more than a blip in the short/medium term.

-j

jdg

25-08-2008, 12:20 PM

and still we wait... hell, i'm of a mind to pop over there and peer down the hole myself. surely since thursday has been enough to time to run the logs. anybody have a take on the delay?
-j

tricha

26-08-2008, 10:07 PM

and still we wait... hell, i'm of a mind to pop over there and peer down the hole myself. surely since thursday has been enough to time to run the logs. anybody have a take on the delay?
-j

WELL jdg u better pop over and peer down that dam hole, it's ......... :confused:

O I L S E A R C H L I M I T E D

(Incorporated in Papua New Guinea)
ARBN – 055 079 868

A U S T R A L I A N R E G I S T E R E D O F F I C E

Level 27 Angel Place, 123 Pitt Street, Sydney NSW 2000 Australia.
GPO Box 2442, Sydney NSW 2001 Australia.
Telephone: (61) 2 8207 8400 Facsimile: (61) 2 8207 8500

DRILLING REPORT – 26 August 2008
WELL NAME: Cobra 1A ST3, PNG

Oil Search reports that at 0600 on 26 August, the Cobra 1A ST3 well was
at a total depth of 2,836 metres and preparations were underway to
conduct a closed chamber Drill Stem Test (DST) over the upper Hedinia
sandstone.
Since the last drilling report, a comprehensive formation evaluation
programme has been completed over the upper Hedinia sandstone
interval. While taking pressure measurements, a sample of formation
fluid was recovered from near the top of the Hedinia Sandstone, which
contains a significant proportion of oil. Further pressure measurements,
however, have been unsuccessful in defining fluid gradients in the
reservoir and the Joint Venture have agreed to carry out a DST of the
interval with the objective of confirming fluid type and reservoir quality.
The test will take place later this week
Cobra 1A ST3 is located in PPL 190 and lies 13 kilometres east of the SE
Gobe oil field and 7 kilometres east of the Bilip oil discovery.
The participants in Cobra 1A ST3 are:
Oil Search Limited 62.556%
Murray Petroleum Co. Ltd 26.497%
Cue PNG Oil Company 10.947%

Total 100%

PETER BOTTEN, CBE
Managing Director
For further information please contact:
Ann Diamant
Investor Relations Manager
Tel: +612 8207 8440
Mob: +61 407 483 128

STRAT

26-08-2008, 10:13 PM

however, have been unsuccessful in defining fluid gradients in the
reservoir and the Joint Venture have agreed to carry out a DST of the
interval with the objective of confirming fluid type and reservoir quality.

Hi Tricha,
I saw the same ann on another site with the same bit highlighted.

I would have thought the bit above was the highlight. Hope so. Still looking for a lower entry :D

tricha

26-08-2008, 11:22 PM

Hi Tricha,

I saw the same ann on another site with the same bit highlighted.

I would have thought the bit above was the highlight. Hope so. Still looking for a lower entry :D

WELL u never know Strat, after reading Peter Strachans report today, it all makes sense.
There are people in the market that have to sell their shares at any cost, debt is killing them. U could very WELL get lucky in this crazy market.

In the big picture of CUE, this is just a side issue, a lot more to CUE than this little hole.

If this is good oil, we will gladly accept the bonus.

STRAT

26-08-2008, 11:39 PM

WELL u never know Strat, after reading Peter Strachans report today, it all makes sense.
There are people in the market that have to sell their shares at any cost, debt is killing them. U could very WELL get lucky in this crazy market.

In the big picture of CUE, this is just a side issue, a lot more to CUE than this little hole.

If this is good oil, we will gladly accept the bonus.To be honest Im not really up to speed on the program but I think the nest big one for CUE is what? over a month away? Ive been pretty much sitting on my hands for 2 months now and I think there will be more grief from the good ol USA. Still plenty of Fundamentally great stocks taking a hiding so Im keeping my hand off the buy button for a while yet though I have been tempted.

CUE under 20c?:eek:

You never know eh? :D

STRAT

26-08-2008, 11:42 PM

Sold my lazy $9000 holding today at 22.5c Purchase 22c.

Reminder to ones self: Don't drink in trade lol.

too many breakout opportunities to sit waiting.. picking ones arse. I'm very impatient... (Which is a good thing)

will watch with some interest,

Look to buy at 20.5c or above 23.5c

AAHi AA
Wine of top shelf tonight? :D
Must be time for another one of those whacky charts:p

I too was looking for an entry if the SP held support above 23.5c

STRAT

26-08-2008, 11:57 PM

Strat, every things looking up for CUE.

But don't go spanking yourself with pleasure just yet

20.5c is the absolut low on this chart

But the depth shows us you have a chance to dance with the lady's ;)

AAhaha,
I would have been absolutely convinced if you hadnt just sold out your holding :p

Seriously though it just seems unsafe to do the sit and wait thing on any stock in this market. Would rather pay a bit more catching the ride up than be waiting around for it to begin in this climate.

STRAT

27-08-2008, 12:12 AM

I might e hearing thingz but check out MIX!!!!!!

AA ;mmm,
Clearly todays news was well received but as you imply a wee bit early to tell just yet.

Thanks for that one AA

jdg

27-08-2008, 07:57 AM

i've never liked snakes. has there ever before been a drill this frustrating? cobra really is a mystery. i'm no longer thinking of popping over and have a peep down the hole, i think i'll send deb webber.

-j

ELYOB

27-08-2008, 11:22 AM

Strachan has put 11c value on the spike(y) [T-38] coming when Beach join in the drilling in bass strait which looks like a spud date 8 weeks from now ........Total leverage = 50%

jdg

29-08-2008, 11:44 AM

note the release this morning regarding more acreage off the Taranaki coast. CUE's forward planning is impeccable. if cobra comes up dry and the sp drops i'll take the opportunity for a quick trade in the lead up to zeus.

-j

ELYOB

31-08-2008, 12:22 AM

tricha

31-08-2008, 09:23 PM

I woudnt wait too long , you might be surprised . Everyone is fooling themselves by not being on board atm save a cent maybe , but you might miss out all together . Todd Petro and Singapore Petroleum are talking ?????

I wouldn't miss this ride for the world ELYOB, it's got excitement written all over it, it's going to be one hell of a rollercoaster.
I better go and buy some sea sick pills, while I'm sailing on it and if u r at the station watching the sky float past, :rolleyes: bon voyage

I guess it's like sailing into unchartered waters. I guess it's why I like it, u have cash coming in with Oyong, cash coming soon from Marri.

Then the wild cards

* Cobra

* Zeus

* Manaia

* and many others.

PROJECTS

Cue has maintained a consistent regional focus in its oil and gas operations. We currently have projects in Papua New Guinea, Indonesia, Australia and New Zealand.
http://www.cuenrg.com/images/stories/jointventureinterestsjune2008.jpg (http://www.cuenrg.com/images/stories/jointventureinterestsjune2008.jpg)

tricha

02-09-2008, 07:28 PM

Sorry to rabbit on in my last post, heres the real story, so much for so little.;)

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=CUE&E=ASX&N=304625

Looks like I'll be shouting Shrewd at the next share meeting in CHCH.

Mysterybox

03-09-2008, 01:14 AM

Wow what a clear and informative presentation, good schedule outline and indepth review of projects. I can see what all the fuss is about now, should have looked into this one sooner. Am looking at timing an entry now =)

jdg

04-09-2008, 11:39 AM

still no news on cobra. OSH weekly due today. sidetrack 4...? god help us.

-j

ELYOB

06-09-2008, 10:18 PM

BPT has got a ASX announcement out on Spikey Beach well this week . Morgan Stanley has placed Unrisked Value of Spikey Beach at 76 million dollars to CUE . Taking other analysts into account , we are looking at 11c a share from success at Spikey beach ...

macduffy

07-09-2008, 08:39 AM

Corporate

07-09-2008, 09:30 AM

I see from HZN's presentation to the Good Oil Conference last week that first production from Maari is now expected in November. Still looking for that window of good weather off Taranaki, I presume.

:cool:

macduffy - I thought first oil was expected sometime in september. November is a fair way off!

Corporate

07-09-2008, 09:47 AM

Got to love the 40mmbo upside potential.

STRAT

07-09-2008, 11:27 AM

Getting close to decision time ?

Corporate

07-09-2008, 12:49 PM

Getting close to decision time ?

Strat can you make that attachment larger? even on my 22inch screen it's tiny

macduffy

07-09-2008, 01:03 PM

macduffy - I thought first oil was expected sometime in september. November is a fair way off!

Yes, that was the timetable until fairly recently.There have been a couple of references elsewhere to the fact that the offshore weather hasn't been suitable and that a window of a few days was required.
Now confirmed via the HZN GOC slide.

STRAT

07-09-2008, 02:53 PM

Strat can you make that attachment larger? even on my 22inch screen it's tinyYeah I know. Sorry about that. As soon as I figure out how I will lol:o

Jess9

07-09-2008, 03:21 PM

Hi Strat. Good read. What trial package are you using?

shasta

07-09-2008, 04:08 PM

Hi Strat. Good read. What trial package are you using?

If you read the chart closely, you will see at the top right it's from www.incrediblecharts.com (http://www.incrediblecharts.com) ;)

Jess9

07-09-2008, 07:17 PM

Ha! I can never see the sauce either. Ta.

STRAT

07-09-2008, 08:03 PM

Hi Strat. Good read. What trial package are you using?Shasta is right. Just started playing with it today. Once I get my head around the program I will probably ( probably :D ) start posting my charts. Hopefully Phaedrus and AA can show me where Im going wrong. Will be taking a crash course in candles too :eek:

duncan macgregor

11-09-2008, 11:55 AM

MD is changing his strategy though UD...and learning some stuff off P.
He states 'Work out what moving average suited the sp in the past, then take that as your buy signal'...

Looks like you can teach an old dog new tricks :o I think we all learned stuff from PHAEDRUS, at least those with open minds. The trouble with CUE is the ability to get out once it peaks without wrecking the sell price. I avoid shares in that category simply because i hate to get into a position of drip selling trying to get out if it goes wrong.
The fundamentals look good but the share price is going nowhere,still keeping close watch out for the TA buy signals. Before i would consider buying i think i would prefer to see more than a few thousand bucks traded each day. My mate SHREWDY has still to learn to only buy and sell shares in companies with decent volume in the market, otherwise when he makes a wrong call he finds himself painted into a corner. Macdunk
COME BACK AND TALK TO US SHREWDY WE FORGIVE YOU FOR THIS BUM STEER

tricha

11-09-2008, 02:38 PM

Gas condensate discovery

OSH: Drilling Report (Cobra 1A ST3). 11 September 2008 (http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=OSH&E=ASX&N=520367)

Not that the market cares in this mood, but just another string in CUE's bow and the patient will be rewarded.:p

Tok3n

11-09-2008, 03:02 PM

CUE must have the lowest volatility of the entire energy sector on the ASX.

STRAT

11-09-2008, 09:37 PM

I think we all learned stuff from PHAEDRUS, at least those with open minds. The trouble with CUE is the ability to get out once it peaks without wrecking the sell price. I avoid shares in that category simply because i hate to get into a position of drip selling trying to get out if it goes wrong.
The fundamentals look good but the share price is going nowhere,still keeping close watch out for the TA buy signals. Before i would consider buying i think i would prefer to see more than a few thousand bucks traded each day. My mate SHREWDY has still to learn to only buy and sell shares in companies with decent volume in the market, otherwise when he makes a wrong call he finds himself painted into a corner. Macdunk
COME BACK AND TALK TO US SHREWDY WE FORGIVE YOU FOR THIS BUM STEERHoly crap,
Macdunk is talking about having stocks on watch and soooo soooon after the olympics.

What about that crash Macca?:p and dont go callin the downtrend a crash:D

Shrewdy will be back soon. Not long now till cue goes for a wee jog I reckon

duncan macgregor

12-09-2008, 07:56 AM

Holy crap,
Macdunk is talking about having stocks on watch and soooo soooon after the olympics.

What about that crash Macca?:p and dont go callin the downtrend a crash:D

Shrewdy will be back soon. Not long now till cue goes for a wee jog I reckon STRAT I watch the fire burning on a cold night which gives me a warm feeling which does not meen i would jump into it and get burned. SHREWDY is painted into a corner scared to move in a share where a couple of grand moves the share price around.
No worries STRAT oil will go sky high in the northern winter when China starts pulling the strings.
Big call i know, but been right so far this year with you and others saying a thirty percent drop in the market is not a crash simply because it dropped in a timely fashion. We are only half way there STRAT the downtrend continues CUE has gone sideways for conserable lengths of time. My time line would have thrown me out numerous times leaving me in a drip sell position. C-MON SHREWDY you got it wrong with your timing, come back and explain yourself. Macdunk

dartMonkey

12-09-2008, 11:40 AM

While Shrewdy should be called to account, to be fair, and having reread the thread from woe to go again, I understood he was always suggesting that about now would be a good time.
Initially, about 14 months ago, he was suggesting a 12 to 18 month timeframe but more importantly tied to Maari production. The suggested timing was later refined, I believe, to be after the Cobra drill but before Maari production - ie now/yesterday.
Coincidentally the dart landed on CUE yesterday too.
I'm off to catch the low tide and surf those waves generated down Maari way ...

Crypto Crude

12-09-2008, 12:38 PM

I really dont want to be bated to the point that I will come out of retirement to defend myself...but here goes...
Dartmonkey,
what makes you think I have no respect for my elders?
thats just garbage...... Most, if not all the figures in my life are older people who I have all the respect for in the world...
your just so wrong, im not even going to continue explaining myself...

Mackdunk,
two words...
"time delays"
happy to wait all will be shown soon...
glad I got in when I did, at least I did not lose money, I would have lost the lot had I invested in a "mackdunk resource stock"...CUE is not that illiquid... last time I looked there was 600k at 21...
tell us all what happened with LMP and in particular the LMPO's when you went on and on about illiquidity... Kaboom....
and lastly mackdunk, please dont bate me into posting...
heres a sneaky peaky-->http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=OSH&E=ASX&N=519595
heres our future...

I will leave the posting until 27cents...
late OCT/NOV see you all then...
good time to buy now...
:cool:
.^sc

tricha

12-09-2008, 12:40 PM

Holy crap,
Macdunk is talking about having stocks on watch and soooo soooon after the olympics.

What about that crash Macca?:p and dont go callin the downtrend a crash:D

Shrewdy will be back soon. Not long now till cue goes for a wee jog I reckon

Holy Crap all right Strat. Here we have a discovery with significant exploration upside in the surrounding area. If it had not CUE would have gone down to 18 cents, yawn.
This is just another string in CUE's BOW, one of many and all of u knockers out there, sit back and knock, because SHREWD IS GOING TO HAVE THE LAST LAUGH.:D

Unless of course the world goes into a depression and then there will be very few winners.:rolleyes:

O I L S E A R C H L I M I T E D

(Incorporated in Papua New Guinea)
ARBN – 055 079 868

A U S T R A L I A N R E G I S T E R E D O F F I C E

Level 27 Angel Place, 123 Pitt Street, Sydney NSW 2000 Australia.
GPO Box 2442, Sydney NSW 2001 Australia.
Telephone: (61) 2 8207 8400 Facsimile: (61) 2 8207 8500

11 September 2008
THE AUSTRALIAN SECURITIES EXCHANGE
(SYDNEY) LIMITED
Level 4, Exchange Centre
20 Bridge Street
Sydney NSW 2000

Attention: Company Announcements Officer

Dear Sir/Madam

Re: Oil Search Limited

Drilling Report (Cobra 1A ST3). 11 September 2008

Please find attached.
Yours sincerely
MICHAEL SULLIVAN

General Counsel/Group Secretary

Encl.

O I L S E A R C H L I M I T E D

(Incorporated in Papua New Guinea)
ARBN – 055 079 868

A U S T R A L I A N R E G I S T E R E D O F F I C E

Level 27 Angel Place, 123 Pitt Street, Sydney NSW 2000 Australia.
GPO Box 2442, Sydney NSW 2001 Australia.
Telephone: (61) 2 8207 8400 Facsimile: (61) 2 8207 8500

DRILLING REPORT – 11 September 2008
WELL NAME: Cobra 1A ST3, PNG

Oil Search reports that at 0600 on 11 September, preparations were
underway to suspend Cobra 1A ST3 as a gas condensate discovery.
Since the last drilling report a closed chamber Drill Stem Test (DST) has
been successfully completed and gas recovered from the upper Hedinia
sandstone. Analysis of the gas indicates it is associated with condensate
and confirms the previously reported elevated gas readings observed
while drilling and the presence of light oil/condensate within formation
fluid samples.
Petrophysical evaluation indicates a 34 metre thick zone of hydrocarbons
is developed within the upper Hedinia sandstone. Up dip potential is
confirmed to the NNE by dip meter data and stratigraphic variations
observed between Cobra 1A, ST1, ST2 and ST3 indicate the Hedinia
sandstone has significant potential to improve both in quality and
thickness in the same direction.
Further technical evaluation will be undertaken to determine the optimum
strategy for the Cobra 1A ST3 gas discovery. Importantly, this discovery
represents the first successful test of the sub-thrust, foot wall, play in PNG
and as such has significant implications for further prospectivity within
PPL190 and elsewhere in the Fold Belt.
Cobra 1A ST3 is located in PPL 190 and lies 13 kilometres east of the SE
Gobe oil field and 7 kilometres east of the Bilip oil discovery.
The participants in Cobra 1A ST3 are:
Oil Search Limited 62.556%
Murray Petroleum Co. Ltd 26.497%
Cue PNG Oil Company 10.947%

Total 100%

PETER BOTTEN, CBE
Managing Director

O I L S E A R C H L I M I T E D

(Incorporated in Papua New Guinea)
ARBN – 055 079 868

A U S T R A L I A N R E G I S T E R E D O F F I C E

Level 27 Angel Place, 123 Pitt Street, Sydney NSW 2000 Australia.
GPO Box 2442, Sydney NSW 2001 Australia.
Telephone: (61) 2 8207 8400 Facsimile: (61) 2 8207 8500

For further information please contact:
Phil Caldwell
Exec Gen Mgr, Oil Operations
Tel: +675 322 5602

macduffy

12-09-2008, 02:12 PM

Well, if Shrewd Crude were to go into permanent retirement I would treat that as a definite "Sell" signal in respect of my wide stable of small oilers.

Keep posting, Shrewdie, so far as your studies/work will allow! We need your "different" comment on events.

:cool:

Disc: Holding CUE - and others.

dartMonkey

12-09-2008, 02:19 PM

Sorry McDunk, the other bit I didn't add is that I always understood Shrewdy said profits wouldn't be shown until after Maari went into production. Based on his cues I still haven't bought all the shares I intend to but certainly will in the next month at most, maybe the week and expecting to show profits December at the latest.
Oddly enough it reminds me of your posts on AGM this time last year in the sense of impending production and that turned out pretty well. Thanks again.
Come on Shrewdy, everybody wants you to come out of retirement ...

Crypto Crude

12-09-2008, 02:33 PM

Im not selling...And I wont be...
Im not in love with the stock as mackdunk once said, I just really like the mixture of short and long term gas assets... mixture of exploration, development, lower risk appraisal drilling, and production...
these activities have not happened so its abit early to start jumping up and down...
So I got in say two months early.... no major big deal...
Its all going to unfold...
I did not foresee the further delay at Maari due to Weather..

as for Cash Maple (120BCF 2P net to CUE)...Currently Coogee is reprocessing the existing Onnia 3d seismic survery over Cash Maple which will allow the JV to remap the field using updated info... this will take the rest of the year... then they will finalise development through either Floating LNG, or Methanol, or compressed natural Gas... and hopefully in 2010 a well...

CUE has better assets than New Zealand Oil And Gas...
check out the different market caps...
im not going anywhere... certainly not into retirement...
im thinking of selling up LMP and CTP for you know what....
later...
;)
.^sc

duncan macgregor

12-09-2008, 02:42 PM

HEY SHREWDY, I only chucked you the bait to get you snapping. I think when it shows ta buy signals i will give it another look. Keep posting mate i am only having you on.. Macdunk

Crypto Crude

12-09-2008, 03:36 PM

mackdunk,
congratulations on your 4000th post...
How about you bask up in the glory for awhile and baythe in it on 4000...
Perhaps you could make a grand re-entry into the high stakes posting world with your four thousandth and 1st post reading...
"ive just bought CUE"....
:cool:
.^sc

tricha

12-09-2008, 08:51 PM

WELL this is great for CUE and 11% of it :p It's better to be at the airport 1 month early, rather than 1 minute late.;) like some will find themselves. :(

Oil Search up on PNG gas, oil find

11th September 2008, 14:45 WST
[/URL][URL="http://ad.au.doubleclick.net/jump/thewest_biz/wabizmining_cont;tile=6;sz=300x600;ord=123456789?"] (http://ad.au.doubleclick.net/click%3Bh=v8/3739/3/0/%2a/z%3B207040613%3B0-0%3B0%3B29350988%3B4986-300/600%3B27957612/27975491/1%3B%3B%7Efdr%3D207041218%3B0-0%3B0%3B27188864%3B4986-300/600%3B27958267/27976146/1%3B%3B%7Esscs%3D%3fhttp://www.anz.com/aus/promo/ANZ-Term-Deposits/default.asp)
Oil Search has made a gas and light oil discovery in Papua New Guinea, that would be put towards a third processing ‘train’ at the $11 billion PNG liquefied natural gas project, if it turns out to be a big find.
At the close of trade, Oil Search was up 23c, or 4.22 per cent, to $5.68.
The oil and gas producer today said preparations were underway to suspend its Cobra 1A ST3 well as a gas condensate discovery.
Condensate is light crude oil.
Oil Search executive general manager of oil operations Phil Caldwell told AAP that it was “early days” for the company’s assessment of the discovery but it appeared to be encouraging.
The ExxonMobil-led PNG LNG project will be developed initially as a two-train operation, using 60 per cent of Oil Search’s resource base.
A third train can be developed if the company can amass three trillion to 3.5 trillion cubic feet (Tcf) of gas from its other assets in PNG.
“We'd like to see a third train get together and would need to aggregate 3-3.5 Tcf of gas to do that,” Mr Caldwell said.
“If it (Cobra 1A ST3) ended being a significant discovery, it can certainly form part of that volume and is reasonably well-located in terms of being moved to a plant location.
“Alternatively, if we end up with a smaller volume of gas that we can aggregate - around 1.5 Tcf of gas - we believe that we can make a petrochemical-type business work in PNG.
“There is a lot of interest from Japanese parties and others in terms of manufacturing various chemicals from gas in PNG.”
Mr Caldwell said the commercialisation options were in line with the aims of the PNG government, which signed an in-principle agreement with Oil Search in late July to cooperatively commercialise the company's gas resource in the country that had not been dedicated to the LNG project.
“That certainly the sort of thing they're looking to do - the manufacture of methanol or something like that, onshore in PNG,” he said.
“It would be complementary to the LNG project.
“The PNG government has a long-term aspiration to drive the domestic value-adding of the gas as well as LNG exports.”
Mr Caldwell said the well had been difficult to drill but the discovery “opened up the prospectivity and de-risks a number of other prospects that we have around PNG”.
“It’s the first time that we've demonstrated that we've got hydrocarbons in a footwall prospect... something that's been underexplored in PNG because the potential has never really been demonstrated.
“A footwall is the rock on the underside of an inclined vein or fault.
“We're planning to do some work next year in some of our leases that will actively target the footwall prospects and try to see if we can extrapolate what we're seeing in Cobra into other areas.”
AAP

STRAT

12-09-2008, 09:53 PM

It's better to be at the airport 1 month early, rather than 1 minute late.;) like some will find themselves. :(
Clearly you havent spent any time at Auckland Airport Tricha:p

Besides if stocks were planes you would be allowd to get on board when the plane was taxing down the runway, during takeoff and throughout the flight. They would have bus stops every half mile just hanging up there in the air :D

Plus when you hop on board while the plane is in flight you dont find yourself waiting another month at the airport while your AirNZ plane is still in Sydney cause a bit of wing or an engine or some other thing fell off.:eek:

tricha

12-09-2008, 10:15 PM

Clearly you havent spent any time at Auckland Airport Tricha:p

Besides if stocks were planes you would be allowd to get on board when the plane was taxing down the runway, during takeoff and throughout the flight. They would have bus stops every half mile just hanging up there in the air :D

Plus when you hop on board while the plane is in flight you dont find yourself waiting another month at the airport while your AirNZ plane is still in Sydney cause a bit of wing or an engine or some other thing fell off.:eek:

Dam Strat, I thought it was only Quantas planes that were falling to bits.:eek:

STRAT

12-09-2008, 10:24 PM

Dam Strat, I thought it was only Quantas planes that were falling to bits.:eek:Hell no, there was a period a few years back where there were no fish in the Manukau Harbour. They all swam away cause bits of planes belonging to you know who kept falling on their heads. I know a guy who dredges for scallops every year. He reckons hes almost got enough parts for a complete 737 :D

tricha

12-09-2008, 11:13 PM

Hell no, there was a period a few years back where there were no fish in the Manukau Harbour. They all swam away cause bits of planes belonging to you know who kept falling on their heads. I know a guy who dredges for scallops every year. He reckons hes almost got enough parts for a complete 737 :D

Skol would like that, a cheap 737, I'll stick to a cheap CUE. Good things take time and in this "bear market" no one knows how long this piece of string is.

STRAT

16-09-2008, 02:01 PM

Im still sitting on my hands Tricha. Thought we were getting close recently but the clouds said hold out.

Admittedly its a real bad day all round but we are at that sub 20c figure today.

Crypto Crude

16-09-2008, 02:17 PM

duncan macgregor

16-09-2008, 05:19 PM

19 cents...
Next month and beyond----> fat rich cats....
such a pity.... these 100-200-300 DOW point falls were most welcome... 500's a bit much for baby CUE to absorb...
I could not be more calm than right now....
what a dream on a forward looking basis...
:)
.^sc Looks more like a nightmare SHREWDY at the moment. Will keep close watch for the TA buy signals which might be hard to pick in an illiquid share amongst dead cat bounces. Remember dont rush in where angels fear to tread. Money in the bank is tops right now, the real bargains will front up soon enough. Macdunk

Crypto Crude

16-09-2008, 07:15 PM

Looks more like a nightmare SHREWDY at the moment

mackdunk,
The only nightmare is the one you have to wake up to every morning.....:).....
this is not a nightmare... LMP up today... CTP up today... TEXO sideways... CUE abit of a fall...
I did not lose much today mackdunk...
im 7-8 weeks early, and 10% down on half of the portfolio since then... and Im ready to rock and roll..... it cant always be roses and angels mackdunk...
sometimes its got to get real real ugly for you to know just how good it is...
bring on a another hundie fall tonight...that would make my day...
:cool:
.^sc

Crypto Crude

16-09-2008, 07:19 PM

and more importantly, im taking you to the cleaners in our little comp...
you are getting savaged at the last hurdle mackdunk...
NWE disaster day... your ruthlessness with pike ...
beautiful VPE, and solid (in the mid 2's Focus) is bringing popa home the bacon...
Come to popa...
You know id happily lose money on the markets to beat you mackdunk...
somethings are better than money...
Pin the tale on the donkey...
yeaaahhhhh hhhaarrrrgggghhhhhh..
:cool:
.^sc

Crypto Crude

17-09-2008, 11:11 PM

peer pressure mate
:p
.^sc

duncan macgregor

18-09-2008, 01:02 PM

Shrewdy, I hope you got out in time with your stop loss. Market sentiment SHREWDY how often do i have to tell you that?. The markets are crashing thats now official coming from yours truely who has warned you all year like a broken down gramaphone record. The falling tide takes all ships down remember that next time. Fundamentals in times like this are as usefull as tits on a bull. I will buy into CUE when it gives a decent TA buy signal as you should have done. Macdunk

Crypto Crude

18-09-2008, 02:08 PM

dartMonkey

18-09-2008, 05:27 PM

Fundamentals in times like this are as usefull as tits on a bull.
Fundamentals mean that as the tide goes out we know that our ship is not one that will be stranded in the sand and irrecoverably swamped when the tide comes back in. We can sit on our decks, drinking tequilas, with a handline over the side comfortable in the knowledge that we'll
reach our destination. As always we set sail a little early but that is a part of the relaxed Northland style.
When we've run out of supplies in November or December we'll tie up to the wharf on a higher tide and might sell you some of our shares when oil's at $200 a barrel. For free, we might even throw in some bluenose we caught instead of watching the screen.
Is our money safe? As safe as houses ... oh hang on ...

ELYOB

20-09-2008, 12:44 AM

The rig weighed anker on Monday , moved to Nelson harbour , awaiting another weather window next week . It will happen .........

This is the word in perth today.

tricha

20-09-2008, 12:52 AM

All the best mackdunk...
Ive no problem holding CUE for the next 10 months even though it has become a savaged losing position...
If only Maari production was on line, this would still be in the 20's...
CUE will survive, and so will I...
:cool:
.^sc

U r onto it Shrewd, good things take time and Mac does not have a lot of it.

Hence he is clinging to cash for dear life.

Where as someone like yourself Shrewd, has time up your sleeve. A year from now MAC will be .................................................. . :rolleyes:

dartMonkey

20-09-2008, 07:37 AM

ELYOB,
If they're waiting for a weather window next week they'll get it
http://www.metvuw.com/forecast/forecast.php?type=rain&region=nz&noofdays=all
but if they're waiting for a swell window it probably isn't going to happen next week.
http://www.windguru.cz/int/index.php?sc=25736
3.5 metres isn't that big I suppose but it isn't that small either. Unusual to see it pulse like that 3 times in one week.
I'd be interested to be kept updated ELYOB.

tricha

20-09-2008, 08:52 PM

easy to push out the boundries eh Thricha,　gives u a second chance!

like to see you call a winner in advance, NOT BEHIND!!!

lets see the next best oiler...call it

I own VPE, ODN, PPP, CUE

Looks like u have already picked some of the winners. :) If the bear is only in hibernation, the only winner will be Mac.

rotweiller

22-09-2008, 09:48 PM

G'day there CUE-ties.
Your rig is still anchored in Tasman Bay lit up like a Christmas Tree.
Both tugs are not to be seen so presume are in Port Nelson.
Who is paying for all this down time???
Will let you know when she finally sails.
Cheers,
Rotweiller

dartMonkey

25-09-2008, 05:19 PM

Hi all,
Apparently they are waiting for a 60 hour window of 1.5 metre swell or less.
Unlikely at this time of year I would've thought and certainly won't be happening next week.
A better site because you can see more of what swell is coming for those interested is
http://www.niwa.co.nz/ncco/forecast

Serpie

26-09-2008, 09:57 AM

24 today. I believe you celebrated it last night, so I hope you're nursing a pounding headache this morning.

Have a good one mate!

bermuda

26-09-2008, 10:16 AM

24 today. I believe you celebrated it last night, so I hope you're nursing a pounding headache this morning.

Have a good one mate!

Shrewdy,
Happy Birthday. Tomorrow back the American to take Cameron out probably due to cuts. Enjoy the fight.

45 cents by December 09????? I thought you meant 08????

seaosh

26-09-2008, 10:31 AM

24 today. I believe you celebrated it last night, so I hope you're nursing a pounding headache this morning.

Have a good one mate!

I thought the 24 referred to the CUE share price and got all excited for a moment. . .

But Happy Birthday Shrewdy!

STRAT

26-09-2008, 11:47 AM

Happy Birthday Shrewdy.
Hey, your age + my age = Macdunks age :eek:.....:p

Mysterybox

26-09-2008, 04:05 PM

Happy birthday Shrewd, you're a crude sort of dude ^_~

duncan macgregor

26-09-2008, 04:27 PM

Happy Birthday Shrewdy.
Hey, your age + my age = Macdunks age :eek:.....:p STRAT that makes you two HALF THE MAN I USED TO BE. Happy birthday SHREWDY. Macdunk

Rabbi

26-09-2008, 05:47 PM

and from me Shrewd one.

Bob still talking up Cue...but patience required methinks.:)

rotweiller

26-09-2008, 09:16 PM

And your bloody drill is still up on its legs in Tasman Bay.
May as well have started drilling here for the time of their sojourn, - you never know the results.
At least the 2 tugs have reappeared so maybe some action shortly.
Probably catching all our schnapper.
Cheers,
Rotweiller

Crypto Crude

30-09-2008, 01:49 PM

CUE down a measley 1.5cents so far today...
IF we survive then we perform...
45 cents next year...
:cool:
.^sc

duncan macgregor

30-09-2008, 02:14 PM

CUE down a measley 1.5cents so far today...
IF we survive then we perform...
45 cents next year...
:cool:
.^sc The glass is half full or the glass is half empty.
CUE is down double what the market is down.
Where is your stop loss SHREWDY. Thats the problem with illiquid sp companies you get stuck in times like this. Study up on TA then you wont find yourself defending a losing position you have lost to much already. Macdunk

Crypto Crude

30-09-2008, 02:46 PM

shasta

30-09-2008, 02:56 PM

duncan macgregor

30-09-2008, 02:59 PM

Mackdunk, I have not lost enough considering what has been happening on the markets......
im down 18%...;)...sitting pretty here...
CUE survives... I perform...
simple really...
you can--> 'stamp that stop loss to your ass and kiss it'... aint no way im selling before company activities have even got off the ground... I will get the last laugh...
:cool:
.^sc SHREWDY i am not laughing at you only trying to correct your miss placed buying and selling strategy.
1, Never buy under the 30 day moving average.
2, always run a tight stop loss until in profit then loosen it up and let your profits run.
3,Never ever think you are right, and its the market that is wrong.
4,Do all the fundamentals that you think fit but its the market that will decide.
I like CUE fundamentals but its the market that will decide if and when i buy. The time is not picking the bottom its when the market tells me its a buy which right now seems a long way off. Your old mate Macdunk

Crypto Crude

30-09-2008, 04:09 PM

Mackdunk,
If your Technical analysis of CUE's chart predicted that Maari Development wells would be held up for two extra months, and if your analysis of CUE's chart predicted the 700 Billion bailout withdraw, then so be it...
Im happy with whats happened... we are down one cent...
and 770 points on the dow... Yeaaahhhh hhhaaaarrrgghhhh....
another few hundie tomorrow is most welcome...
Hey check these numbers out....

CUE energy confirmed Oil and Gas Assets...
Gas.... (all 2P)...

30 BCF Kimu
120 BCF maple cash
4 BCF SE Gobe
120 BCF Bariweka
12 BCF Oyong Gas
12 BCF Wortel

equals 298 BCF of Gas (with upside- in particular Cash maple with P3 1430 BCF, and Kimu)...

Red is already in production
Blue is in development stage
bold black will be apart of the OSH LNG legacy project, with production 2013-2014...(mammoth)...
and underline, we are waiting of completion of detailing and development plan next year... Coogee resources partner...

now 298 BCF is 298,000 MMCF, is 298,000,000 MCF...
lets say one thousand cubic feet is an embarrasing $5 Aus...
thats 1.5billion dollars worth... in 5 years when the OSH LNG is up and running MCF could be 4 times higher buddy...
plus 3million barrels 2P heading to 5m with Manaia...
come on mate... give me a break... give me a kit kat...
Assets worth multi billion dollars... and a market cap of 115million...
with current production of 30 Million per year..... with extensive exploration and appraisal drilling starting in one month with major 2009
coming...then theres Jeruk....
mackdunk, as for your pointer under number 3.... of course im right and the market is wrong... this is why ive put abit over 50% in this one stock...
I cant predict the exact path to riches, I can predict that we will eventually get there...
This is mini NZO, and we are having the same battles a year later...
Id suggest you be careful this time also mackdunk, thought you would have learnt your lesson with that one...
give me heaps... I need a good pumping up...:D
:cool:
.^sc

colinm_au

01-10-2008, 09:10 PM

I'm with SC ... watching the SP and waiting for the "right time" isn't possible - Technical indicators will change very quickly on a discovery ...

CUE released Full Year Results yesterday which show EPS of 0.019 which is a P/E at the current price(0.18) of below 10 !
I expect Maari (due onstream shortly) to increase earnings by a factor of at least 2.5 times ...
To put this in context, 10 is a low P/E, if earnings go up 2.5 times to 0.0475 the SP should move to 0.45 correspondingly and still maintain the P/E at a lowly 10 ...
Startup of Oyong phase 2 in 2009 and Wortel in 2010 should ensure continued strong revenue growth into the future...
Startup of Maari is currently awaiting a weather window which should help lift the SP when news and drilling results start flowing ...
Drilling of the Zeus prospect in the Carnarvon Basin starts late October which if successful could see the SP double or treble ...
Drilling of the Spikey Beach prospect in the Bass Basin starts early November which if successful could see the SP also rise very significantly ...
Drilling of the Manaia prospect in NZ starts early 2009 which if successful could see the SP also rise significantly ...
Drilling of the Matariki prospect in NZ starts mid 2009 which if successful could see the SP also rise very significantly ...

So, I am expecting that whilst slack market conditions have led to a deteriorated SP, any major news will see the slack in the SP disappear very quickly !
From my observations of recent trading, buyers that bought in to ride the SP up during the drilling of the Cobra well and many sidetrack wells have supported a large seller looking to go short.
With the failure of the SP to rise even after the success at Cobra (due to little information being released about the quantum of the result) these buyers have looked for the exit.
Whilst TA traders look to trading rules such as exiting a position when it drops 10%, market realities are not so simple ...
At a low P/E any company with strong earnings from a growing production profile of quality assets will soon be subject to takeover or the SP will rise as the earnings grow ...
CUE at the current SP must be looking very interesting to a lot of parties ... (OSH, STO, AWE, BPT etc.) my bet is AWE !!!

Let’s hope that CUE’s profitability continues to grow and they have a bit of luck drilling !!!

scorp57

01-10-2008, 09:46 PM

i agree. Macdunk makes some great trading points and it is obvious that he has been trading for a long time, but in this market, if you like a stock like CUE you wont be able to pick the bottom... you will only be able to buy the stock if you like it at prices taht you think are cheap.

sure it may go lower, but it also may go higher in a flash once the dust clears. the dust may clear tomoro or in 2 years who knows?

cheers

p.s i still really like CUE. as soon as i get some free cash i will be in

tricha

01-10-2008, 10:39 PM

I'm with SC ... watching the SP and waiting for the "right time" isn't possible - Technical indicators will change very quickly on a discovery ...

I'm glad there is a few people out there with brains :), all these fairies looking to the gods, get real.

macduffy

02-10-2008, 08:31 AM

I'm holding CUE and very optimistic about it, for all the reasons discussed recently.
However, I wouldn't get too tied up in the P/E or prospective P/E at which it trades. Let's not forget that PPP is trading at a P/E of about 2 !!! - I'm holding them, too!

;)

CAM

02-10-2008, 08:43 AM

Perhaps PPP (and NZO?) should buy out Cue?

Financially dependant

02-10-2008, 04:19 PM

Perhaps PPP (and NZO?) should buy out Cue?

There are some big hitters on the share register so not an easy take over opportunity.

More exploration interest...

http://stocknessmonster.com/news-item?E=ASX&S=CUE&N=306677

jdg

02-10-2008, 06:15 PM

There are some big hitters on the share register so not an easy take over opportunity.
]

agreed, mate, the top holders have such a large chunk, CUE's almost takeover-proof. holders will reap what they drill...

-j

colinm_au

03-10-2008, 04:42 AM

Yes ... but money talks and Todd only have 25%

I didn't think AZA looked vulnerable with AEL owning 53% !!!

macduffy

03-10-2008, 08:40 AM

Yes ... but money talks and Todd only have 25%

I didn't think AZA looked vulnerable with AEL owning 53% !!!

Don't forget Singapore Pet's 15%.
I wouldn't rule out a takeover entirely but Todds and SPC work closely together in several areas and have their own plans for CUE.
I think AEL had shown previous signs of wanting out.

;)

ELYOB

04-10-2008, 02:43 AM

What a surprise . On checking the rigs timetable , they are expecting a spud about 15/10/08 for the Zeus Ζεύς Zeús /zdeús/, genitive: Διός Diós

The Songa Venus will complete the Ichthys North-1 on its offshore rig schedule approx 11/10/08

rotweiller

04-10-2008, 09:45 PM

Bad weather continues to hold up the return of drilling rig Ensco 107 to Taranaki.
It has been sheltering in Tasman Bay since mid-September and the Ensco rep said it was thwarted in moving from one Taranaki location to another due to the bad weather.
Will keep you Cue-ties informed on any developments.
Cheers

colinm_au

07-10-2008, 03:05 AM

Maari drilling rig likely to be moved on site this Friday as there is a >3 day weather window required coming finally: http://magicseaweed.com/New-Zealand-MSW-Surf-Charts/4/

Fingers crossed ... ColinM

STRAT

07-10-2008, 05:11 PM

Wow. CUE down to 14.5 at one point today and Im still too much of a scaredy cat to put a buy order up :eek:

Crypto Crude

10-10-2008, 12:46 PM

What a sea of Red, and again CUE is sideways...
This is truely an amazing stock... CVN and HZN are just as stellar... check them out... I saw HZN up before...
Glad I held this stock than any other on the market...
we have done well considering...
very special stock... Im holding all the way and I wont sell even if I lose the lot to market risk...
see yahs...
currently trading at 15cents...

:cool:
.^sc

Crypto Crude

10-10-2008, 12:48 PM

Seller came through... now at 14.5c...
:D
.^sc

macduffy

11-10-2008, 06:39 AM

Corporate

11-10-2008, 12:31 PM

I've got CUE on close watch. If the market turns and progress is made on Maari this could be a quick 50% back up to 21c

rotweiller

11-10-2008, 02:17 PM

Drilling rig still on its feet off my doorstep and no sign of the 2 tugs so obviously still not going anywhere.
Cheers

macduffy

11-10-2008, 02:33 PM

Drilling rig still on its feet off my doorstep and no sign of the 2 tugs so obviously still not going anywhere.
Cheers

Thanks, rotweiller.

Disappointing news - we've had a lot of that lately! - although the settled weather looks like it might stick around for a few days yet.

:cool:

macduffy

13-10-2008, 10:33 AM

Drilling rig still on its feet off my doorstep and no sign of the 2 tugs so obviously still not going anywhere.
Cheers

Hi rotweiller.

I'm hoping that your neighbour has moved on to the Maari field by now, otherwise looks it may miss this spell of settled weather.

Any news?

:)

rotweiller

13-10-2008, 01:13 PM

Absolute millpond here today but no sign of life on the Rig and still the 2 tugs are absent, so still not going anywhere and confirmed with the binoculars.
Cheers.

lakeys

13-10-2008, 02:39 PM

its all about waiting for the swell to get small enough at the moment there is a 16sec ground swell of 2 to 3m dropping slowly.. but another swell coming latter this week..........not a good time of the year for a small swell 3 day period

dartMonkey

13-10-2008, 07:40 PM

Hey all,
As lakeys says it's about swell not weather.
As I understand it they need around 60 hours of less than 1.5 metre swell.
That's unusual for this time of year, I would've thought.
Been surfing nearly every day for the last 2 and a half weeks. Thursday/Friday is going to be huge with another big pulse next Sunday. Either we go surfing or the rig gets moved. Can't lose.
The best site to keep an eye on what's coming is the niwa site (http://www.niwascience.co.nz/ncco/forecast) coz' it lets you see what's SW of Aus ie what's coming.

rotweiller

13-10-2008, 09:20 PM

Stand by macduffy and Cueties.
Home when dark but reckon some action on the horizon.
Reckon the drill is off its legs and 1 tug has appeared.
I have a fertiliser ship in tomorrow so will keep an eye on any developments and hope my ship miises it.
Cheers

JessicaWabbit

15-10-2008, 08:25 PM

Hi Rotty,

Could you please provide an update..................

Thanks, JW

rotweiller

15-10-2008, 08:50 PM

The rig is definitely off its legs but someone at the Port reckons it takes 4 days to clear the mud off them.
One tug which was in Port today is in company. the 2nd tug was there last night but dont know where he has disappeared too.
Will keep you informed of any action.
Cheers

JessicaWabbit

16-10-2008, 12:28 AM

Thanks, much appreciated.

Please do keep us updated Rotty, nothing like having a good contact at the coal face with reliable reports.

JW

ELYOB

16-10-2008, 11:22 PM

Have comfirmation on Zeus -1.

To spud in mid-NOV !

This is the big time for little olde cue

rotweiller

19-10-2008, 02:58 PM

Hi there Cue-ties.

Sunday, October 19th. 2008, 1430 hours.

Your drilling rig is under way out of Tasman Bay bound back to Taranaki.
Millpond here so hope the same over the next drill hole when it gets there.
Will miss the light display at night.

All the best to holders,

Cheers,
Rotweiller

colinm_au

21-10-2008, 02:21 AM

Another Good QE result:

105,480 BBL @ A$146.44 = A$15.48M Revenue – A$2.39M Op Cost – A$0.58M Admin = A$12.51M for QE against a MCAP of A$84.8M (@13.5) ...
Maari will add 150K BBL per quarter after ramp up ... Rig now on location
This will see CUE's production exceed 1 MILLION BBL/Year !!!!!

Oyong phase II will add another 90K BOE per quarter ... Q3 2009
Wortel will add another 85K BOE per quarter ... Q4 2010

2 Free-carry wells (no cost to CUE):
Zeus drilling to start in November ... Large TCF prospect (Very Close to North Rankin and Goodwin gas/condensate fields in NWS) ... A success here would be huge !!!
Spikey Beach drilling likely to start in January after rig damaged on current well ... This is a 100MBBL prospect in the BASS basin close to the Yolla gas/condensate field

Only negative was a downgrade from 30 to 25 BCF of KIMU reserves which are not likely to be developed until 2012 when PNG LNG starts up.

Wonder if I can get my Visa Card limit upped a bit to A$85M !!!
:)

colinm_au

31-10-2008, 07:01 PM

Picture of Ensco107 on site - courtesy HZN

Crypto Crude

04-11-2008, 05:10 PM

Mackdunk disclosed a few days ago on the NZO thread that he bought CUE at 13.5cents... congratulations to him...
CUE now rebounding strong...
I have found some very exciting information on the Matariki prospect...
we are dealing with an anticline structure that could yield CUE 20 Million barrels of Oil...
Southern part of Matariki prospect is hydrocarbon charged which shows up on seismics, (similar to the Moki-1 oil discovery)...it shows as a hazy gas...
I will post more in time...
big value to CUE, and another well in a string of (development, appraisal, and exploration wells to come)... which are about to roll out over one year, first starting within 2 weeks (hopefully)...
--->oil migration south through Taranaki 150 million years... This could be heaven and very lucurative to the JV...
Maari reserves already looking likely for a re-rate from 50 million barrels recoverable, to much closer of 100 million recoverable...proven by Manaia low risk appraisal and wrong drilling location, which was posted here...
The Maari oil field is described as "full to spill point"... you gotta love that...
cheers...
:cool:
.^sc

marknz88

04-11-2008, 05:59 PM

Shes definitely having a nice little run today

was looking a lot oversold at 13.5, if only I had some spare $$$ to purchase :(

jdg

04-11-2008, 06:20 PM

yip, it's nice to see it bounce of its lows.

as previously stated by many on this forum, CUE has a great deal in its favour as it rolls a number of projects into production. the only thing that could ruin the party is a continuing slump in the price of oil. it would be nice to see it stabilise, but that's not a sure bet. just how big an effect the economic troubles will have on oil demand is difficult to ascertain. OPEC will mount a challenge to further drops, and that may give us some comfort. unfortunately, what was such a sure bet has become beholden to external forces.

on the upside, we have zeus coming up. what a shot in the arm that would be if it were to come in. i've taken a good punt on this one. i've held for a while and been buying into the depressed price of late. the next few months will be interesting. on balance, i still feel she will come up trumps.

-j

Crypto Crude

04-11-2008, 08:21 PM

jdg,
good post...
yes our future revenue stream has halved in the last few months...
CUE still looks good... Maari was given the go ahead at $40 US per barrel (profitable at that price)...
the further delays have not been such a bad thing eah...
Maari full field production late 1st quarter 2009 gives us more time...
I think by then prices could head further north...
if they dont then theres nothing to worry about IMO...
we have all these other activities to support the SP...

namely...
Manaia appraisal well 2009
Bariweka-3 appraisal well 2009
matariki exploration well 2009
ongoing maari... development 2008/2009
spikey beach.. exploration...2009
two wells in Jeruk (similar size to Maari)... appraisal...2009
Cash Maple.... development plan 2009
Zeus....exploration well... 2008
Kimu.... appraisal 2010 and onwards...
Cobra discovery...
Oyong Oil....existing production...
Oyong Gas... production 2009
Wortel Gas.... production 2010
ongoing SE Gobe (small scale)...ongoing production...

so we have Kimu and Wortel gas production that might not get much of a mention in 2009 (just progress reporting on Wortel)... and all the others go into advanced stages of their respective cycles...

45c target price is very conservative...
If I added in the true value of some of CUE's assets
then we are looking far north of one dollar fifty...
I usually have no consideration for exploration wells what so ever, (but I like Matariki)... the others are a gamble...and in all respects Matariki is too...

Kimu and Jeruk are wild cards...(jeruk more speccy)....

the Annual Report has forecasted 2009 production of
530,000 barrels of oil... .8 BCF....

I come up with 60 million dollars in revenues for 2009 with a current market cap of 100million...
2010 revenues of 80 million dollars...
we must add Manaia revenue streams to that...

Right now we can book CUE as a sure thing big 'popa' bagger 2009, 45cents on the downside...
but we have to remain cautious with Maari production start up because we have seen many 1st production stuff ups over the years...
I will be ready to bounce on any sign of bad news...
I highly doubt it will come to that...

all in all... markets will dictate to us what our company should be worth...
I easily know CUE is worth 45 cents now based on whats to come...and when it comes for CUE to be worth more again based on realisation of a portfolio that is diverse and proactive to production paths in all proven assets... The PNG assets are reliant on Oil Search, which too has stepped up a gear...
I guess this foresight into CUE's future (and other companies) is why we play the sharemarket profitably over the medium to long term...
thank you...
:cool:
.^sc

Crypto Crude

04-11-2008, 08:22 PM

Im not suppost to be posting... too bad...
without that mighty crash it would not have gotten to this...
:cool:
.^sc

jdg

05-11-2008, 08:00 AM

duncan macgregor

05-11-2008, 08:35 AM

Im not suppost to be posting... too bad...
without that mighty crash it would not have gotten to this...
:cool:
.^sc Changed your mind about the crash SHREWDY?. No worries mate you will soon be back to square one, this will trend up in the short term. Macdunk

tricha

05-11-2008, 08:36 AM

well, shrewd, poo up 10% as of now, that's a big lift and should signal a good day for CUE. for what it's worth, it's good to have you back posting. the thread wasn't the same without you. trust exams have gone well.

-j

A big lift and dam, wished I'd doubled up when they were 13 cents, great post Shrewd.

There is certainly a lot happening and looking forward to ZEUS, lets hope it is gold plated.

jdg

05-11-2008, 11:34 AM

if what's on screen is any indication, the buy/sell ratio is very strong. anybody wanting in with a significant holding is going to have to pay for them. all bodes well.

-j

Crypto Crude

05-11-2008, 03:22 PM

mackdunk,
I have not changed my mind...
CUE is the best oil stock I have ever seen...
And Im not ramping... its factual...
pity that markets swooped like that...
CUE has almost retraced... a rare stock to do that...
Im almost at the point of fully regaining the losses (within a month of the crash).... give me all the stick you want mate... Its about time I got a good kick in the pants...
:cool:
.^sc

Crypto Crude

05-11-2008, 06:26 PM

with spikey delayed... now an announcement on Zeus delay... and Maari delayed again...
there seems no ultimate rush to panic buy...
still a few weeks for the patient...
take your chances...

ASX AND MEDIA RELEASE
Update on Zeus-1 timing
Key Points:
Songa Venus now expected to be released from current well late November
MELBOURNE, AUSTRALIA (November 5, 2008) -- MEO Australia Limited (ASX: MEO) is pleased to advise the following update on the timing of drilling Zeus-1. The assignment of the Songa Venus drilling rig to MEO was scheduled for late October 2008. Unfortunately, drilling difficulties are being experienced, unrelated to rig capability, in completing the last well under Songa’s current Contract. On the basis that drilling and testing of this well continues as planned then the likely release of the rig to the Songa Venus Consortium for MEO’s Zeus-1 well will be delayed until the end of November 2008. Consequently the expected spud date of the Zeus-1 well is currently forecast to be early December 2008.
:cool:
.^sc

STRAT

06-11-2008, 06:40 PM

Macdunk to Nita from the NZO thread

"Incidently my average entry price is now 14.5c up from 13.5c so work that one out. Macdunk"

Hi Macca,
didnt want to litter the NZO thread with more stuff about CUE so thought I would bring it over here.

So this means you bought some more at a price higher than 14.5 and your 33% gain is back to only 3% ? :D

Shrewdy,
Got off my hands and bought some CUE today

Corporate

06-11-2008, 06:57 PM

STRAT

06-11-2008, 07:22 PM

What is your hurry to buy now?No hurry Stephejame, In fact I left it late.
My first dabble in many months other than a quick in and out with BOW. Chart has looked good for a week or so. So bought some on a down day. Tight stop loss in place.
Overall I think we have seen our bottom on the ASX and I think Oil has seen its bottom or is close too.

Of course I reserve the right to change my mind by tomorrow :D

Corporate

06-11-2008, 07:33 PM

No hurry Stephejame,
My first dabble in many months other than a quick in and out with BOW. Chart has looked good for a week or so. So bought some on a down day. Tight stop loss in place.
Overall I think we have seen our bottom on the ASX and I think Oil has seen its bottom or is close too.

Of course I reserve the right to change my mind by tomorrow :D

Haha fair call Strat. What do you like about CUE?

I am abit nervous about the dow and oil tonight..

STRAT

06-11-2008, 07:43 PM

Haha fair call Strat. What do you like about CUE?

I am abit nervous about the dow and oil tonight..LOL

What do I like about CUE? mmm?

Bermuda, Shrewd, Oiler and Mattyroo all own some. Hell, Tricha and Macca own some. :D:D:D:D:D

No need to be nervous about the POO and the DOW tonight. You cant buy anything till tomorrow anyway.

I put in a bid this morning and when I came back this arvo it had been filled. Its not like Im back in boots n all. Just a wee play. A month from now I reckon we will all know if the bottom has been seen of not.

My only advice would be if the money you are playing with right now is very important to you dont stop being nervous.;)

Crypto Crude

06-11-2008, 08:52 PM

congratulations strat...
I did not realise that bermuda was holding CUE...?
Someone on the NZO thread said that CUE had a $1 party back in 1983...
And I will be planning something along the same lines...
two things could get us there next year...
one is Zeus, the other is Matariki...
The path is set to get us to one dollar, but without these two it will take alot longer...
good luck...
2009 one dollar party...yeah hhahehegggrgrghhhh...
:cool:
.^sc

STRAT

07-11-2008, 09:45 AM

I did not realise that bermuda was holding CUE...?
Someone on the NZO thread said that CUE had a $1 party back in 1983...
And I will be planning something along the same lines...
two things could get us there next year...
one is Zeus, the other is Matariki...
The path is set to get us to one dollar, but without these two it will take alot longer...
good luck...
2009 one dollar party...yeah hhahehegggrgrghhhh...
:cool:
.^scHi Shrewdy,
He posted a wee while ago that he had bought a few.

Reckon I should have waited a bit longer. Will probbably be able to get em cheaper today.:rolleyes:

bermuda

07-11-2008, 10:17 AM

Hi Shrewdy,
He posted a wee while ago that he had bought a few.

Reckon I should have waited a bit longer. Will probbably be able to get em cheaper today.:rolleyes:

You are right Strat. I was all set to get some but never got the bid met so I pulled out and bought some more VPEO's plus ITC. Been watching CUE. It wont be Maari that kicks this one . It will their gas exploration and the Zues's of their portfolio.

Crypto Crude

07-11-2008, 02:25 PM

Maari will be the back bone of this company... with out it then other projects would not be able to get off the ground...
The cashflows from Maari are imperative for this to happen..
Especially when we add in Manaia and maybe Matariki and other prospects...
Id say 4 million barrels from Maari (Maari and Manaia) is very important to a company valued much under 100 million...
2000 barrels per day (with other projects easily eclipse this target), will grow the cash balance very quickly....
Maari is major, and all other good things to come flow from this one project...
remember that full production is not until mid 2009...
so we have 6 months to wait for oil prices to rise...
thank you...
:cool:
.^sc

STRAT

07-11-2008, 02:39 PM

Mmm,
Shrewdy and MR B
I get worried when you Oil men disagree :eek:

tricha

07-11-2008, 03:14 PM

Mmm,
Shrewdy and MR B
I get worried when you Oil men disagree :eek:

They are both right, Maari will be the income to support the likes of Zeus.

It will be a ZEUS hit which has the potential to ignite CUE.

And that's the gamble we take, come in Zeus.

AMR

07-11-2008, 03:16 PM

Shrewd, Tricha, how do you play oil drill setups?

Do you sell the day before the well is scheduled to come in? Seems to have worked well for NZO's Hector.

jdg

07-11-2008, 05:17 PM

i sold out half of my PPP in the run up to hector to take the safe bet (oh, the days when it was easy to make money on the markets...). with CUE i'm tempted to hold the lot because the story is on-going. with PPP there was little action after Tui fired up. clearly this is not he case with CUE, so i think it's a much safer punt to hold through the zeus drill. i see smaller downside if it fails and the chance of very big unside if it comes in. those are my thoughts, anyway. they may change depending on the size of the sp increase in anticipation of zeus.

-j

Crypto Crude

07-11-2008, 06:51 PM

Shrewd, Tricha, how do you play oil drill setups?

Do you sell the day before the well is scheduled to come in? Seems to have worked well for NZO's Hector.

hey AMR,
oil setups? whats that?... you might be refering to a BESBS...
buy early sell before spud...

I remember what happened during, before and after Hector quite well...
It was all real real real weird... The Share price started falling before Hector was even drilling, throughout hector the SP was falling... and by the time it was mid to near end drill, the options had fallen so much that it was barely worth selling my options that ran 200%...
It was all to do with the re-rate/impact that I thought first Tui production would have on the share pirce, which was around the same time as hector...And when first production was announced, the SP did nothing... I saw Hector, and the other two wells as a free shot at riches, where it was downside protected because TUI would kick in and offset the outfall, that never really happened (although it did protect the SP from falling below the point of when the SP started to run up)... but in the options game a sideways share price over time is a cost, when holding these securities...

TUI at first did nothing to the SP...
We then thought it would re-rate on announcement of full flow rates...
We then thought the SP would rerate on first tanker...
Then we thought first 1 million barrels produced... then it was..........
that re-rate did not come until 7 months later...after all the milestones had been achieved...

What I failed to really engage, was the fact that New Zealand Oil and Gas was pretty much hated by the market (I already knew that, but I thought Tui would spur the SP).... 7 months later the market caught on how good this company was, much long after we realised...at that stage ise long gone from nzood...
so as a risk return investment... the share price ran up hard during the Tui exploration program, inpart to Tui... drilling results were bad... Share price fell to the level's back before the run up, but did not fall further...
that was a great risk return investment... made 50% on nzood...

CUE will be better, because the big exploration target of Matariki will be at the back end after Maari and Manaia... and in particular Manaia for which the market is oblivious to understand its low risk potential to add to reserves.... the SP will rise and completely offset a fall out from Matariki if that is the case as full production will be achieved...
Not really a BESBS play to be had here...
other activities overlapping eg with Oyong gas production...
should be the best year ever for CUE in its history which has spanned 25 years as a listed company (I think)...

In saying all of that... no one really knows how CUE will re-rate in the lead up to Maari production... if we get the re-rate at the front end, or the back end... or some time throughout... or during Manaia... or during Matariki... or later next year 7 months after first production then so be it------> we will get it...

BESBS
is more suited to spec companies that have a big target drill...
its a strategy that works almost everytime when applied to the right stock... In this market oil stocks are not running hard in the lead up to big target wells, (like they used to)....

the NZO (tui, hector) example was just plain weird...I re-rate made no sense as hype should have been building on Hector as it was a major target...
Upside Down and I are going to put aside a small amount of funds each and play a few BESBS plays next year... he is a real smart character...
chao...
:cool:
.^sc

Crypto Crude

07-11-2008, 07:01 PM

jdg-i sold out half of my PPP in the run up to hector to take the safe bet (oh, the days when it was easy to make money on the markets...). with CUE i'm tempted to hold the lot because the story is on-going. with PPP there was little action after Tui fired up. clearly this is not he case with CUE, so i think it's a much safer punt to hold through the zeus drill. i see smaller downside if it fails and the chance of very big unside if it comes in. those are my thoughts, anyway. they may change depending on the size of the sp increase in anticipation of zeus.

jdg,
you did real well with PPP eah... who would have thought it would come to this...
you are right, those were the days...
In this period it will be more difficult but I ultimately believe we will make a killing here...
If you look at that list of activities I posted a few days ago...
If you strip it down.... Maari should be able to support a Share price of 20cents alone... and then Manaia another 5-10 cents...
ongoing production from Oyong oil, and SE Gobe of say 5 cents (off the top of my head)...

that means not only are we discounted on what we already have,
we have been discounted 100% on all these other activities...

Bariweka-3 appraisal well 2009
matariki exploration well 2009
spikey beach.. exploration...2009
two wells in Jeruk (similar size to Maari)... appraisal...2009
Cash Maple.... development plan 2009
Zeus....exploration well... 2008
Kimu.... appraisal 2010 and onwards...
Cobra discovery...
Oyong Gas... production 2009
Wortel Gas.... production 2010

And theres alot in there...
We are therefore pretty much getting a discount of a discount of a discount... fair value right now considering the market crash and all is north of 20cents and south of 30 cents...
unbelieveable... We will soon see if I can perform in a recession...
also, think about the CUE to HZN switch after Zeus...
:cool:
.^sc

clearasmud

07-11-2008, 08:22 PM

Shrewd, have you seen any detailed valuations for Cue.

I've got a hole swag of these and am thinking of buying more. (averaging down)

discl 21% of my portfolio at 20c average.

Crypto Crude

07-11-2008, 10:38 PM

clearasmud-Shrewd, have you seen any detailed valuations for Cue.
I've got a hole swag of these and am thinking of buying more. (averaging down)
discl 21% of my portfolio at 20c average.

hey clearasmud,
To be completely honest, I have not seen any valuations...
I have seen a few cashflow summaries but I wont post them for two reasons...

1) they are not mine...
2) they are now outdated...

I have said it before... Working out valuations on Spec oilers are a waste of time for many reasons (not because I cant do them)---> here are a few reasons why...
1) time delays
2) prices recieved... will oil be $40US or $350 US in 2012?
3) we can only value what we knowningly have...
4) discount rates

they are all subjective...
Will Kimu remain stranded?
will Jeruk ever produce?
how will market react to Bariweka good flow test results coming tnext year (with production years off)
will Maari produce 50million barrels or 80 million barrels...?
how do we value Zeus,Matariki,Spikey when we dont have a confirmed resource...?
If I add or dont add things, we could come up with a valuation of 25 cents... or 1.50...
I pretty much made up the target price of 45cents...
I looked at the things we can bank on...
Oyong Oil, Oyong gas, wortel gas, Maari oil, Manaia, and Bariweka-3 appraisal well in PNG next year that is very low risk, high chance of success...
and thought well... all this is worth 45cents...(and it is)...
if we add in one other success very quickly we are looking far north of that...

All these main activities will downside protect all else...
its pretty simple really...
changing oil prices are effecting the 45cent target, ie the bankable cashflows... but but but, as I said we have 7 months for oil prices to turn around...
and I believe they will...
Holding CUE, you are investing in the price of oil...
and investing in a clearly undervalued stock...
pity Im not a weather man though...
--->So I never worked out a valuation, I just had a look at all the projects (with focus on the development and appraisal targets), and crunched a few numbers...
I tell you what... I will think about putting up a NPV per share on Maari...
give me a few weeks...
:cool:
.^sc

jdg

08-11-2008, 10:21 AM

jdg,
you did real well with PPP eah... who would have thought it would come to this...
you are right, those were the days...

ppp treated me very well. bought plenty around A15c in march 07 and sold half at 34 in july then after hector duster sold the rest at 24c. at the time of selling the last half i predicted on the ppp forum that 24c would prove cheap as tui was ramping up - not to be. yip, a good trade alright. haven't too much to crow about this year...i've taken a bath. CUE looks like a goodie, but with delays at maari, zeus, and spikey beach, the sp appreciation that i am anticipating may come a little late to save my 08 year.

bring on 09...!

-j

Crypto Crude

08-11-2008, 01:29 PM

jdg,
yeah. this year has had its ups and downs.. ive given back profits on many winning positions like LMP, LMPO, WHN, AKK...breakeven on LMP now... RPM kinda set me up...
CUE pulled it all apart...
I could not be happier on where I think CUE is heading... im not worried about a short term blimp...
I will try and get as much as I can into CUE over the next 5-6 months in anticipation of what is to come...
this really is the type of stock that could change our lives...
catch you around mate...
:cool:
.^sc

macduffy

08-11-2008, 08:52 PM

OMV spokesman quoted on delayed Maari production.

http://www.reuters.com/article/rbssEnergyNews/idUSSP6586720081107

srowe

09-11-2008, 08:48 AM

Interesting that Todd energy has a 16% stake in Maari and also has 25% stake in CUE [which has 5% stake in Maari]

macduffy

09-11-2008, 09:23 AM

Interesting that Todd energy has a 16% stake in Maari and also has 25% stake in CUE [which has 5% stake in Maari]

Todd's have been majority shareholders in CUE for as long as I can remember. CUE chairman, Richard Tweedie, is a Todd Energy executive.

Crypto Crude

09-11-2008, 03:21 PM

macduffy,
this could be good or bad depending on how you look at it...
Maari production delay gives more time for oil prices to rally...
But, CUE's expansive 2009 might now require a cash injection as Maari non revenues have held up the cashflows required for other projects...
CUE wont have any problem raising the cash, but its the overhang of it looming...
8 million dollars left on a 25 million dollar loan facility...
17 million cash at bank... development costs expected to rise to 9 million for this quarter... string cashflow revenues of 15.4 million last quarter...
Its looking likely enough that only one more injection will be required with CUE forever/also if Zeus hits big...

delays are just apart of this game we invest in...
nothing has changed... just the timing of those assets..
fits well with Oyong gas production next year...
:cool:
.^sc

dartMonkey

10-11-2008, 07:05 AM

Well the sea's as flat as it has been for ages so I wonder if we'll get some progress on Maari ...
The swell's picking up slightly towards the end of the week so they'd be best doing things today and/or tomorrrow if they were going to.

nzoiler

10-11-2008, 07:35 PM

Hey Shrewd. Hope your exams went well. Good to see Maari underway...Delays have compressed a lot of activity into the months ahead-exciting times for CUE. Managed to load up at the peak of the hysteria so got a few more now. Anyway heres the article.....

Drilling, seismic underway in NZ after delays

Neil Ritchie, New Zealand
Monday, 10 November 2008

THE Ensco 107 jack-up rig is finally on location at the Maari wellsite off Taranaki, New Zealand, and has spudded the first development well in the formerly $US508 million ($A741 million) project.

Origin Energy released the rig to Maari operator Austrian firm OMV in early August after it had successfully completed the three development wells in the $NZ1.2 billion ($A1.06 billion) Kupe gas-condensate project.

However, the sometimes wild weather off Taranaki prevented the start of the Maari drilling campaign on several occasions – firstly as the rig waited near Kupe; following its planned tow to Tasman Bay near the top of the South Island where it was stacked and, it is believed, got stuck in the mud of the sheltered bay; and lastly on its return journey to Taranaki waters.

It is understood the rig arrived near the already installed Maari wellhead platform late last week and spudded the first well yesterday.

The delay in starting the eight-well – five oil development wells, plus three water injection wells – drilling campaign is almost certain to increase the final cost of the Maari project by some tens of millions of dollars.

The Maari partners had initially anticipated production from the first three production wells to start in September, though last month minority partner Cue Energy Resources said first flows were now not expected until late December. By then, oil should start flowing to the nearby floating, production, storage and offtake vessel (FPSO) Raroa, which has been on location for several months.

The Maari partners are operator OMV New Zealand (69%), Todd Energy (16%), Horizon Oil (10%) and Cue Energy Resources (5%).

Meanwhile, the Pacific Titan seismic vessel has finally left Port Taranaki, New Plymouth, after an almost two-week delay caused primarily by having to upgrade onboard firefighting equipment.

The ship had arrived at the port on October 25 for a multi-operator, multi-permit summer 2D seismic program covering 7000 kilometres in the offshore Taranaki, Canterbury, and Great South Basins.

After a customs clearance, crew change and taking on provisions, it had been scheduled to leave two days later.

However, upgrading the firefighting equipment, which included getting a replacement pump from Singapore, meant the vessel did not leave port until last Friday.

The vessel is scheduled to spent up to 3Â½ months in New Zealand waters on a program that could cost $US9-12 million ($A13-17.5 million), shooting seismic for several joint ventures headed by operators Origin Energy, Australian Worldwide Exploration, New Zealand private company Greymouth Petroleum and United States independent Global Resource Holdings.

Crypto Crude

10-11-2008, 08:24 PM

hey NZoiler,
great news with 1st Maari development well spudding...

we are going to laugh straight to the bank with this...
2009---> 45cents on the downside based on low risk wells, and expected cashflows.. it could spill over into 2010...

low risk wells---> bariweka, manaia...
cashflows, and expected cashflows---> oyong oil, se gobe, maari, oyong gas... wortel gas the year after...
maari upside...
its all there...

yeah harrrgghhh....
I dont really know what to say.. I guess just wait on the market announcement and on the slow re-rate as full field production kicks in over time... at the same time watching other projects kick in....
I dont mean to ramp... its just laid out on a platter for u like ive never seen before, for such a low m cap.....

its been 38 years in the making to get to this point if you add in Manaia...
and 25yrs in the making with Maari....
this is your best chance to invest in the New Zealand Oil and gas industry... Maari is the largest undeveloped oil field in this country... that is about to change...

I have CUE on a strong buy...Maari projected cashflows de risked abit more today... cheap entry on offer...
mackdunk has an invested interest...
buy on that factor alone...
:cool:
.^sc

macduffy

10-11-2008, 08:26 PM

Thanks, NZoiler!

Something to celebrate at last!

Just noticed too that CUE have announced today having issued employee options at 22.5c - 35c.!

:):):)

Corporate

10-11-2008, 08:39 PM

Thanks, NZoiler!

Something to celebrate at last!

Just noticed too that CUE have announced today having issued employee options at 22.5c - 35c.!

:):):)

Does anyone know what Todd and Singapore petroleum paid for their shares?

nzoiler

10-11-2008, 09:01 PM

Not sure if the "spudded" part is entirely accurate, however Ensco 107 is on location and in prepartion to spud if not already commenced....
Pretty sure Singapore took 80 million at 20cents-but stand to be corrected.
:):):)

bermuda

10-11-2008, 09:13 PM

Crypto Crude

10-11-2008, 10:41 PM

yup... your about right nzoiler...somewhere between 20-22 cents..
if ise guessing id take a stab right in the middle...
:cool:
.^sc

macduffy

11-11-2008, 08:18 AM

Singapore Petroleum bought most of their shares on market over the last 2-3 years. If you look back at substantial shareholder announcements, if these are still available, you may be able to work a rough average price.
Todds have, of course been there since early days.

;)

nzoiler

11-11-2008, 12:41 PM

MAARI OIL FIELD DEVELOPMENT UPDATE
Cue Energy Resources Ltd is pleased to announce that a major milestone
has been achieved in the Maari Oil Field development. On Sunday 9th
November 2009 the ENSCO 107 jack up drilling rig was successfully
positioned next to the Maari Field WHP. Following completion of the
preloading activities the focus will be on preparing for the commencement
of development drilling operations. It is planned to drill 5 oil development
wells and 3 water injecting wells, progressively on the field.
The Maari Oil Field is located in PMP 38160, in the offshore Taranaki basin,
New Zealand. First oil is now expected around mid February 2009, when
the first oil development well is expected to be completed. Oil production
will ramp up towards the expected initial gross rate of 35,000 barrels of oil
as the development wells are progressively drilled.

Crypto Crude

11-11-2008, 04:54 PM

duncan macgregor

11-11-2008, 05:10 PM

most of the aussie oilers are down today? some quite heavy...

awe,aed,coe,psa,ipm, STO down a heap,WPL down a heap,
some specs are crashing like WHN,AKK,BCC, other falling specs include tex, far, bow is down, nwe...

NZO sliding...PPP stable when it should be rising...incredible HZN is falling... CVN down?

whats happening... anyone know?
:confused:
.^sc We are in the middle of a crash SHREWDY thats whats happening. Macdunk

Crypto Crude

11-11-2008, 05:15 PM

Im reading that crude prices were up over the last day...
up $1.37 to settle at $62.41...
it was a nice peacful drop on the DOW overnight...
The ASX took a beating today huh....
oh well, back to being patient and waiting...
yeahhh hhhaarggghhh...
:cool:
.^sc

airedale

11-11-2008, 08:51 PM

most of the aussie oilers are down today? some quite heavy...

awe,aed,coe,psa,ipm, STO down a heap,WPL down a heap,
some specs are crashing like WHN,AKK,BCC, other falling specs include tex, far, bow is down, nwe...

NZO sliding...PPP stable when it should be rising...incredible HZN is falling... CVN down?

whats happening... anyone know?

:confused:
.^sc

Hi Shrewdy, you have noted that HZN i.e. HORIZON is falling. Don't worry until SKY starts falling.:):)
In my research I also looked at SEA. The tide has been falling since July on that one. From .50 to .20

STRAT

11-11-2008, 09:20 PM

Hi Shrewdy, you have noted that HZN i.e. HORIZON is falling. Don't worry until SKY starts falling.:):)
In my research I also looked at SEA. The tide has been falling since July on that one. From .50 to .20Haha Airdale.
People and barnyard animals alike dont really believe the sky is falling.

The Chicken Little Fund CLF down from 24c to 11c this year.:D

STRAT

11-11-2008, 09:44 PM

most of the aussie oilers are down today? some quite heavy...

awe,aed,coe,psa,ipm, STO down a heap,WPL down a heap,
some specs are crashing like WHN,AKK,BCC, other falling specs include tex, far, bow is down, nwe...

NZO sliding...PPP stable when it should be rising...incredible HZN is falling... CVN down?

whats happening... anyone know?
:confused:
.^scFear of Depression in the USA I reckon Shrewdy. Fear being the operative word , not depression.
I still think we have had our bottom even if the Yanks dont believe it yet. We will see I suppose

ELYOB

12-11-2008, 03:35 AM

Commsec has been making statements which would make their clients a bit jumpy. They feel oil is about to cave in .......bowser price AUD $1 / ltr , etc.,. Price oil dropped on weak trading tonight below US$60 bbl , so it is good in the sense that OPEC and Saudi learn they have to play the game seriously . If Comsex knew the economics that artificial manipulation of the US$ atm is causing weak behaviour in oil ; it will take a rise in AUD to get AUD$1 ltr ; and to get that we would have an improvement in commodities prices , including oil ........so its the dog chasing its tail trick . OPEC are due to meet Dec 18th and could call an emergency meet prior like last time . Most Offshore production cost is USD$60-70bblo , so change here will happen with the marginal cost of production ..... oil is testing the lows like 2 years ago , or do we all have short memories . The forces that apply such as cost and northern hemisphere winter will come along ..............oil will sort itself after 2008 ........just in time for CUE HZN CVN BPT AWE PPP SAE GGP AMU ROC WPL STO ERH TAP OEL SEA PSA to be in shape , to market perform !

KentBrockman

12-11-2008, 06:33 AM

.... Most Offshore production cost is USD$60-70bblo , so change here will happen with the marginal cost of production .....

So it's good to know that this article implies that a Manaia development will still be economical at a POO of $30. (I guess that's what Coppin is talking about?)

http://www.iranoilgas.com/news/details2/?type=news&p=current&newsID=2955&restrict=no

bigminty

13-11-2008, 06:47 PM

Shrewd Crude 'The GURU" has asked that everyone practise the following mantra for at least 15 minutes per day(eyes closed please)
Ommm...Q Ommmm...Q Ommmm...Q Ommmm...Q

Congratulations on finishing your exams!!!

jdg

26-11-2008, 02:34 PM

the chairman's address today suggested the possibility (and it was just a possibility) of cash raising. i hope it doesn't come to that. if required, it would only be short term given the cash flows that ramp over the next two years. the PoO remains the big variable. few expected it to slide this far, but further downside is now seen as a real possibility. the PoO will have an effect on whether CUE needs to raise funds, of course, but in the medium term let's hope it recovers to time nicely with maari ramp up. there is a great deal of money to be made in this stock, but it may be a bit further off than i was expecting. patience is required now.

-j

macduffy

26-11-2008, 06:03 PM

Yes, that's the message I took from the (acting) chairman's address too.
I reckon the key is the speed at which Maari now comes on stream after fairly long and costly delays, rather than the volatility in the PoO - barring a further collapse there.

jdg

26-11-2008, 06:31 PM

agreed, macduffy, it's largely an issue of the timing of development costs and the timing of income from maari - but income from oyong and se gobe will vary greatly with oil at $40 and oil at $100. and in the medium term the former looks more likely. short term we might want to hope for the best at spikey beach and zeus.

-j

Crypto Crude

28-11-2008, 02:45 PM

Hey all...
welcome to the boards Bminty,
Hey Jdg, and mack duff... and the rest of the gang......

Well alot has changed even in just the last month...
I can see that two wells in Jeruk have been pulled from the latest time table... I can see the low risk appraisal well of Bariweka-3 (PNG) planned for mid 2009 has been pushed back on the timetable until year end... I can see Development costs of Maari have increased past $US 600 Million...

The two exploration wells which both spud next month (spikey and Zeus) become much more important if we are to have a shot at 45cents by late 2009... so I agree jdg...
The HZN's chairman address to shareholders (yesterday I think) was an interesting read stating that net operating cashflows net to HZN at $50 US per barrrel is $US 4.5 m per month... so still $US 2.25 million per month to CUE which is a major for this company with a m cap less than 80 million dollars... also 30,000 BOPD plus will be sustained for much longer with Manaia tie in...
... this and current revenues, and the two gas developments, will tip future revenues in 2010 financial year greater than the market cap of the stock...
Still a great investment here...
CUE bought its stake in Maari for $1.48 US per barrel... and its profitable at $40 US per barrel... and breakeven somewhere around $25-$30 US per barrel at a straight out guess... Oil prices will not get that low... we have already seen resistance around $50 US...
The costs of Maari are sunk now anyway, so gaining any sort of revenues means something...

Bring on spikey and Zeus...
45 cent target by later next year now has to be downgraded given the new information namely oil prices falling almost two thirds off their peak, and the other wells, but most importantly Bariweka-3 appraisal well...

We have Matariki which looks good...
we have a few shots to get major appreciation in the next year...
lets hope that one of these wells hits...
Zeus, Spikey, Matariki... and protected by Manaia, and Maari which will provide upside from here.....
I will post Matariki details soon...
catch you up...
:cool:
.^sc

jdg

28-11-2008, 09:41 PM

yip, mate, if PoO stays at current levels we'll be ok but we would need some perfect luck with the drill bit to get close to 45 cents. but like you say, a month's a long time right now - who knows what will happen in 6 months. i'm picking we'll do ok.

-j

bigminty

29-11-2008, 07:06 PM

Shrewd Crude 'Welcome to the boards Bminty'
;)

ELYOB

01-12-2008, 02:51 AM

The lastest rig schedules upto midweek , have both Zeus and Spikey Beach spud datings about 8/12/2008 . The wells will dig down together ..... and if both were to hit the goods , CUE will have more to think about .....in the new year 2009 , along with the rest !

Crypto Crude

01-12-2008, 04:17 PM

oh well ELYOB, Your heart was willing...whats another few weeks eah...
I hope your locked and loaded now...
I think this time we can say December eah.. hehe

ASX AND MEDIA RELEASE
Update on Zeus-1 timing
Key Points: Songa Venus now expected to be released from current well mid-December
MELBOURNE, AUSTRALIA (December 1, 2008) -- MEO Australia Limited (ASX: MEO) is pleased to advise the following update on the timing of drilling Zeus-1. The assignment of the Songa Venus drilling rig to MEO was originally scheduled for late October 2008. Ongoing drilling difficulties unrelated to rig capability continue to be experienced by the current Operator, in completing the last well (Ichthys North) under Songa’s current Contract. The release of the Songa Venus drilling rig has now been extended to a mid December 2008 forecast, albeit this remains subject to ongoing drilling decisions for the Ichthys North well. All regulatory approvals have been received for Zeus-1 drilling and MEO is in readiness to spud Zeus-1. All remaining casing, equipment and materials for Zeus-1 have been delivered to Dampier in readiness for progressive load-out to the drilling rig by the Lady Astrid and Lady Caroline anchor handling and supply vessels. MEO has commenced mobilization of equipment and materials for the spudding of Zeus-1 to Broome to enable
http://www.sjgs.com/spot.gif
..^sc

shasta

03-12-2008, 07:57 PM

Financially dependant

03-12-2008, 09:29 PM

Yes I am waiting patiently for this to turn around, to much going on to think about getting out, failure priced in?

Noticed a spike in volume today, I guess a good time to get in?

shasta

03-12-2008, 09:58 PM

Yes I am waiting patiently for this to turn around, to much going on to think about getting out, failure priced in?

Noticed a spike in volume today, I guess a good time to get in?

CUE ended 13% down at 10c, i'd see a fall on big volume as bearish

Perhaps CUE sub 10c tomorrow?

colinm_au

04-12-2008, 05:38 AM

Over the last 90 days, 31,555,059 shares traded with the price declining
%55.5 from .225 ... %5.0 of shares on issue, forgetting churn (%11.8 for the same period in 2007)

Yes, the SP performance looks dreadful, but is the volume significant ?

How many shares would a serious buyer be able to pickup at these levels ?

How long before the POO inevitably rises back above $US75/bbl ?

CUE's COP last QE was $US14.24/bbl ...

Drilling of 2 exciting free carried wells in Dec, Maari development drilling starting ... I have enjoyed the opportunity to buy more at .105

DISC: I now own just under 10M shares

The Big Ease

04-12-2008, 06:42 AM

so just a bit of play money there colin? ;)

boysy

04-12-2008, 10:29 AM

how much of the development costs of maari have already been paid by cue ?

colinm_au

05-12-2008, 04:44 AM

so just a bit of play money there colin? ;)

And currently a lot of pain !!!

I am hoping Santa will bring me a nice big discovery - Either of Spikey Beach or Zeus or Wasuma (OSH prospect crosses into PPL219) ... or even a new SE Gobe well testing the Hanging footwall after the success at Cobra

After reading OSH's latest presentation, I would expect to see news on the consolidation of foreland gas reserves in 2009 which include Kimu ,Barikewa and Cobra ... Will they make CUE an offer for the permits or take out the Company or will STO or HZN ?

Financially dependant

05-12-2008, 01:52 PM

To ease your pain a little Colinm...

Maari oil drilling ahead of schedule.

http://stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=HZN&E=ASX&N=206366

Crypto Crude

05-12-2008, 03:48 PM

Hey shasta
your right CUE is looking sick...
Its a market thing...
Company is exactly the same when I bought it apart from oil has been falling...
Big assets still there...
its got all that, and a bag of chips... blah blah blah...
During the week I presented CUE, with other topics to a finance company and they told me it was the best presentation they ever had...
If CUE wont perform, then no oil stock will...
Would rather hold this spec than any other...
cheers...
Still holding, and looking to buy more in the next few weeks...
I might finish selling LMP also...
CUE will survive at $25 US oil...
:cool:
.^sc

ELYOB

05-12-2008, 04:13 PM

Dont be surprised to see oil bounce ; lot going on behind the scenes . OPEC not the only ones effected by low oil ..... even the analyst(s) are b/s atm .... alot could change very quick .

Oil USD $43.50bblo atm of this post

ELYOB

08-12-2008, 04:47 AM

There is a big distortion in the ships at sea ; supply is overboard . It is known that 700mmbblo is on the seas at anyone time ....................................a shortage is about to happen !

Price is overboard........................????????????????? ????????

Dec 17th will be dramatic play...........??????????????????????????????????? ?????????OPEC Meeting

CUE holding big time .............so I am biased,.,. DYOR

BIG PRICE CORRECTION is on the way , what a drama ..........??????

Crypto Crude

08-12-2008, 11:41 PM

hey elyob,

awhile back Yogi said CUE will run hard in Jan...:)....
humm... some sort of discovery or something maybe? hehehe...

CUE's proven gas assets are equilivant to the billion dollar Kupe Development...Infact-> CUE has better assets than NZO...
63million mcap vs 500million mcap (at a guess)...

When I make positions in any stock (especially bold moves, because ive done my homework)... I never sell unless there is material change ... And we have not seen material change... its the same company from month to month (with delays)...
Now sure oil prices have been falling, but the forward curve remains the same we just cant predict the path to the higher price...
Maari full production is still 8 months off...

CUE is worth 20cents even if it was stripped down and sold all the assets in parts (in the right market)...
Im sitting on pretty big losses on such a bold move, my portfolio has gone back to early 2007 levels...
I still cant see a better spec oil stock on the market, which has long term, short term assets, and diversified between production, development, appraisal, exploration...
Oh well...
a bagger per year from here for the next 5 years on offering with big up and all that...
I'll ride out this storm, and lose time and not lose money...
hehehe...

Good to make consistant profits in a good market... I guess my bloated head made me think I could make it in any market... ise right to sell last year, and wrong to get back in...
'come to popa' mr market...
I'll be waiting...
:cool:
.^sc

colinm_au

09-12-2008, 06:14 AM

Only 20cents ...

On what basis SC?

I expect we will be receiving a hostile bid shortly !!!

macduffy

09-12-2008, 06:42 AM

Only 20cents ...

On what basis SC?

I expect we will be receiving a hostile bid shortly !!!

Well, unless it's made by either Todds or SPC it won't go anywhere!
Todds 25%
SPC 15%

;)

The Big Ease

09-12-2008, 07:49 AM

i have not really had a look into cue beyond the chart, but it looks like it has largely followed the trend of other energy companies being knocked down approx. 20%.

i guess its being rated in relative terms to its peers.
potential doesnt get rated in this market. its easy to find companies with massive growth potential and changing indsutry trends in their favour, yet there is no premium for this potential at the moment.

if a company can deliver some of its potential, it will be rewarded. but even then it wont be in advance of what it has delivered. expectations have been fully discounted in this market right now.

if we are leading into a recession and oil is already considered cheap, then things can only get better from an equities point of view imo.

colinm_au

09-12-2008, 02:00 PM

Well, unless it's made by either Todds or SPC it won't go anywhere!
Todds 25%
SPC 15%

;)

Control of the company only requires 50.01% ... And I am sure that the big players do backroom deals sweetened with asset swaps and/or farmins on favorable terms ...

macduffy

09-12-2008, 03:41 PM

Control of the company only requires 50.01% ... And I am sure that the big players do backroom deals sweetened with asset swaps and/or farmins on favorable terms ...

So true, colin.
But Todds in particular have been in CUE for a long time and I'm hoping (?) that they intend to stay for the long haul.

marknz88

10-12-2008, 11:43 PM

Update on spikey-beach drilling

"Beach Operated Offshore Program - South East Australia
The West Triton jack-up rig was unable to successfully jack up at the Spikey Beach-1 well location and the decision has been made to move the rig to the Fermat-1 location. Fermat-1 (Vic/P46, offshore Otway Basin), is the third of Beach Petroleum's planned three well offshore program. Beach, as Operator is currently considering options for a return to Spikey Beach-1 after Fermat-1. Interests in Fermat-1 are Beach Petroleum (50.00%), Mitsui E&P Australia Pty Ltd (25.00%) and Essential Petroleum Resources Ltd (25.0%)."

http://stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=BPT&E=ASX&N=169893

**Found on another site

Sounds like there could be big problems at spikey-beach? hopefully they can reschedule the rig and work out a new approach.

colinm_au

12-12-2008, 05:51 AM

The latest advice MEO has received currently forecasts a release of the Songa Venus drilling rig on approximately 23rd December 2008. This release date remains subject to ongoing decisions in relation to production testing and/or further drilling operations of the Ichthys North well. Upon release and acceptance of the Songa Venus by MEO the rig will undertake about a six day tow to the Zeus-1 location in permit WA-361-P.

Crypto Crude

12-12-2008, 05:51 AM

Cue is worth 20cents ...

only 20cents

On what basis SC?

I expect we will be receiving a hostile bid shortly !!! …

Hey collin…

What do you want me to base it on?
OK proven 2P gas assets of 300 BCF worth
1.5 billion dollars at $5 AUS per MCF…
Then 2P oil assets of 3 million barrels at $65 AUS
Worth 200 million AUS…
So 1.7 billion dollar assets at 70 million dollar market cap yesterday
At 11cent close…
So what is 20 cents based on…?
Good point…

Tricha was talking about PPP buying assets literally worth cents in the dollar…

What do you get when you divide 1.7 billion cheap stake prices by 70 million market cap?

cents in a dollar mate... liquidation, fire sale...
and we have revenues in 2 years worth more than the market value of the stock... what the...!

The thing which makes this different from other oilers is its development projects going into production, which realises some of the value behind large almost 'hidden like' proven assets…
We will roll out on the coat tails of Oil Search… Check them out…
And we have activities between now and then…
Okokok…
blah blah blah... same story different day....
sit tight my friend...
This is as good as it was before, long term outlook for one bagger per year on OSH PNG PNG... dyor...

nape... im still adament on this... oil prices have fallen 100 dollars US...
Im still adament on this...
it looks better and better the longer this grind goes on...
Dont be afraid, consult your local investment advisor and dont hold back on tough questions... hehehehe...
peace...
:cool:
.^sc

ELYOB

12-12-2008, 05:14 PM

Pex Publications has Zeus set for 3 Jan approx = ?????

Ketel One

23-12-2008, 01:08 PM

Pex Publications has Zeus set for 3 Jan approx = ?????

From http://stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=MEO&E=ASX&N=311805:

“MEO has been advised that Tropical Cyclone Billy has delayed the release of the Songa Venus drilling rig from its current well until at least 5th January 2009. Once the rig is released to MEO, it will undergo a 6-7 day tow to the Zeus-1 location.”

Crypto Crude

23-12-2008, 03:02 PM

hey Ketel,
another chch rep....

Zeus was suppost to be the biggest target well of 2008 offshore AUS...
Make that 2009...
I love gambling when we have the assets to back it up...
Holding all the way on Zeus results, possibly looking at an HZN switch after Zeus...
hummmm.........
I sold the rest of my LMP NZX last week...
peace out
:cool:
.^sc

Crypto Crude

01-01-2009, 07:00 PM

Ive got Brent Crude futures up 14% on my screen...
yippie....

Maari progressing nicely... only 40 days or so off first production...
Ive now heard from a few sources that first production might be earlier than mid Feb... Jan, and it will shock the market...
but then again, we have heard all this sort of stuff in the past...
So Feb sounds good....

Maari update 29.12.08
HORIZON OIL (HZN): MAARI DEVELOPMENT DRILLING UPDATE – 29 DEC 08
Horizon Oil Limited is pleased to announce that further good progress has been made on the
Maari Oil Field development since the last drilling update provided to shareholders on 5
December 2008. In that update it was reported that the installation of 24” conductor casings in
9 well slots to a depth of 260 m had been completed. These will provide for 5 oil production
wells, 3 water injection wells and one spare location.
The current phase of the Maari well construction program involves the drilling of the first 3
production wells. Batch drilling of 3 surface holes in 16” casing to a depth of about 900 m was
completed on schedule on 24 December. The Ensco 107 jack-up rig will now drill each well to
programmed total depth, equip for production and turn to the FPSO. As at 28 December the
first production well, the MR3P8, was drilling ahead in 14 ½” hole at a measured depth of 1,532
m, towards a planned depth of about 2,000 m just into the upper part of the Moki reservoir
formation. At that point the well trajectory will be horizontal and 10 ¾” casing will be run.
The well will be completed by drilling a 1,600 m horizontal section across the top of the Moki
oil reservoir. On reaching total depth, a lower completion assembly consisting of wire-wrapped
screens will be installed from inside the 10 ¾” casing shoe, across the open-hole section of the
reservoir.
The Maari Oil Field is located in PMP 38160, in the offshore Taranaki basin, New Zealand.
First oil is expected around mid February 2009, when the first oil development well is expected
to be completed. Oil production will ramp up towards the expected initial gross rate of 35,000
barrels of oil as the development wells are progressively drilled.

OPEC cuts... UAE cuts... Middle East tension... oil prices cheap as chips now...Oil investment is expected to fall 30-40% in 2009...
This will make the the next run up in a few years much more severe...
$40US is not great... but hey, we will survive anything over $15-$20 US per barrel...
I still highly believe this is the best small oiler in the conventional market, ASX that I can see... Hence my holding position....
10 cents... wow....
:cool:
.^sc

Crypto Crude

07-01-2009, 02:47 AM

Oh well... im the only one posting here lately...
am I a ramper?
well.......lets see?

im not wrong in a normal market.... bar nothing....

Im here because im so right and I dont care how long it takes for this to turn.......
mack this and mack that will tell me im wrong for sure...............
............
.......
.....

usually after the facts, hunters come in for the kill !
this time is just the same as other hunts...
I am the predator...

ok ok ok...

lets break down some proven numbers for all of us to see...
first oil assets, then gas assets

OIL ASSETS

Oyong oil current production, and 370,000 barrels to come to CUE......
S E Gobe current production, and 200,000 barrels to come to CUE.......
Maari--> 2,500,000 barrels to come with certain upside***...

oil reserves so far... add all 2P oil assets up and we get--> 3,070,000 million barrels of oil.....

GAS ASSETS

First of all I will change gas assets to Oil assets converted equilivant... Gas assets do not necessailry mean equilivant prices to Oil, but More so the point of equilivant energy consumption per barrel....the rate between oil and gas is 5487 cubic feet equals to one barrel of oil... ..... so 1 barrel of oil=5.487 MCF....

BOE is in terms of energy consumption of oil barrels of total company production profile, without breaking down each asset class within the sector...

OK ok ok ok... lets list CUE's gas 2P assets...

1)30 BCF Kimu
2)2.5 BCF S E Gobe..... quoted as 2P but apart of PNG LNG equilivant, even though unyet undefined..... smaller production risk, and less PNG LNG risk makes up for 2P reserves easy (and small also)....
3)120 BCF Bariweka
4)12 BCF Oyong Gas Production 2009
5)12 BCF Wortel Gas Production 2010
6) 120 BCF Cash Maple

1)30,000,000,000cf/5487cf=5,467,468 barrels...
2)2,500,000,000cf/5487cf=455622 barrels...
3)120,000,000,000cf/5487cf=21,869,874 barrels...
4)2,186,987 barrels
5)same as above
6)same as 3)

add these up and we get 54,036,992 barrels of oil equilivant...
add in barrels of oil 2P and we have 57,106,992....

also note that 1) kimu did have a downgrade (I cant remember the exact figure so minus a few million off that), if need be...

divide the total number by the market value of the company and we have
one barrel of oil equal to $1.375 (2DP) AUS....

no bull...

when we change all of CUE's gas assets to oil assets equliviant, and add oil assets---> we have one barrel (in total) equal to $1.375 (2PD) AUS.... wow...

ok so... whats wrong with the valuation?

well, nothing really... other than the fact that some of CUE's assets are longer term... Maari short term asset of Maaro is less than 30 days off 1st oil production.... Maari was bought by CUE for $1.48 US per barrel...
development costs have added to this...
time value of money added to all costs makes this an extremely profitable project... A project that could possbily ramp all other projects off of.....

in the conventional sector we bank on bankables....
and add in possibile upsides (free of charge)...

All of us in this sector now have to account for unconventional oil and gas assets too... I didnot believe these assets would boom in the current climate, which I was proven wrong)....
oh well.... trial and error in the market place... banking on bankables is where I wanted to play my game.

I have positioned myself nicely so that I will perform if unconventional sectors perform or not....upside blue sky for real...

two shots at 50 cent CUE sp for real this year.... and if both wells go bad then CUE Will still be above 30 CPS>...
if one good then above.......

I worked out that Zeus which will spud mid Jan could add 40 million barrels of oil (BOE) to cue, for its given stake... that would almost double CUEs proven 2P assets.....

Tricha posted that AWE has 62 million barrels of 2P reserves...
Does Tricha also know that CUE has BOE of 57 Million barrels with upside,

a fraction of the market value in comparison....

billions vs millions here... for real....

no joke...

AWE is more advanced...

sure CUE is still off major cashflows....
and sure CUE does not yet have major oil producing cashflows...

this has always been the risk we have taken...

this is truely the best oil stock ive seen in 6 years of investment, and will truely be the same until material change occurs...

all others ive played and tipped are nothing in comparison in terms of risk return... risk profile....

does CUEs assets almost equal AWE's bank sheet?

why yes... but not in current production..... sell AWE... sell PPP... sell NZO... sell them all.... Sell them all for CUE... this is where its at......

This is what we invest over the long term for...
not the biggest return possible here...
weighing in risks, nothing is better....

one dollar CPS over the next 5 years I reckon at CUE...
I can wait no prob....
same story different month...
nothings really changed

management creating deals with all the big caps, that all small caps dream of... also added in diversifed this and that and blah blah blah...

what more do I have to say...

assets better than NZO... for real....

Go figure...

DYOR...

as said... 2009 is where we make back all losing positions..
others will jump in after the boom and say they bought at lows after the spike......
forget about them... this is where its at....

show yourself now... bank on bankables...

CUE energy has barrels of oil equilivant worth $1.377 AUS per barrel of oil.....

ok ok ok.... lets put this on another level.......

market cap of 78.5 million dollars.....

Barrels of oil equilivant of 57,106,992 million barrels of oil....

*** add in the triple star upside from Maari, (namely Manaia), and two zones of M2A, Moki........

CUE with such a minute mcap, diversfed, diuversifed asset class, diversifed region, diversifed stage... and all that...

and major Maari production less than 30 days off.... this is a long term play... NZO is a mini compared....

GET positioned correctly....
dont get me wrong.... NZO is one of the best.... (top 5)...
CUE is better down the line than that no prob basec on proven assets...

make money over the next 2 months...... get in CUE...
:cool:
.^sc

colinm_au

07-01-2009, 04:50 AM

Hi Crude !

I'm with you on this stock ...

However it is a little simplistic to just look at 2P reserves for your valuation ! ROC has 2P reserves of 47MMBOE

Actual Production is the most important factor !
Hopefully CUE may produce a million barrels this year if Maari performs as expected

The COP is also an extremely important factor !
Last QE the COP for CUE was only A$26.61/bbl for PNG and Oyong ... Don't look at AED's COP !!!

We also need to look at the applicable tax rate ... Oil production in NZ is taxed less than in Australia (blame RRT) !!!

The amount of project risk is also important !
Companies with only 1 producing asset (AED, PPP etc) are more risky than companies like CUE with many producing assets !!!
Companies that partner with the majors (STO,OSH,OMV) are less risky than smaller players without the expertise (NDO, CVN)

Keep up the good work, let's hope that we get to see the SP reflect some of CUE's potential, I suspect that such value will be snapped up by a bigger player soon - who will it be ? (AWE, BPT, HZN, OSH, STO or Todd etc.)

DISC: I am a long term holder with ~ 10M shares (directly an in my superfund)

KentBrockman

07-01-2009, 07:13 AM

1)30 BCF Kimu
2)2.5 BCF S E Gobe..... quoted as 2P but apart of PNG LNG equilivant, even though unyet undefined..... smaller production risk, and less PNG LNG risk makes up for 2P reserves easy (and small also)....
3)120 BCF Bariweka
4)12 BCF Oyong Gas Production 2009
5)12 BCF Wortel Gas Production 2010
6) 120 BCF Cash Maple

All nice and true, but the major problem with Cue's gas assets (the main value driver in your calculation) are (with the exception of Oyong and Wortel) difficult to access and thus largely discounted by the market.

Cash Maple is supposed to be huge, but as far as I know, Coogee has just put itself up for sale, and there are NO concrete plans to materialise the inherent value in CM. A shame really, as I liked the idea of a floating methanol production facility (which could be used for Zeus too :) )

Cue's other large gas field, Barikewa, needs appraisal (which I believe is scheduled). May be much smaller than originally thought, but if proven up and LNG plans in PNG get finally on the road, could be of huge financial value.

But by and large I agree with you, the beauty in Cue is its diversification and spread of significant assets.

Don't think the Todds will sell, so takeover seems unlikely. But once Maari is up and running, and perhaps with another significant find I can see it easily 50c+

JBmurc

07-01-2009, 09:43 AM

Well at 12.5c I'm happy to be onboard CUE now bring on the massive discovery:)
Oil's looking like keep current gain OPEC cuts will be felt soon enough

Crypto Crude

07-01-2009, 12:08 PM

colin,
However it is a little simplistic to just look at 2P reserves for your valuation ! ROC has 2P reserves of 47MMBOE

Yes, but ROC has a market cap of more than 300 million dollars...
CUE is only 80 M cap... and CUEs assets are bigger...
also, CUEs potential assets are bigger (exploration success)...
... I hear what you are saying, but CUE's major assets will be producing in a whole new oil bull down the line...
would you take 40 buck barrels, or hundreds of dollar barrels...
happy to wait years on assets to come through...

kentbrockman-
All nice and true, but the major problem with Cue's gas assets (the main value driver in your calculation) are (with the exception of Oyong and Wortel) difficult to access and thus largely discounted by the market.

The market cap is so low, its almost as if CUE's other assets never even existed...
discounted 150% by the market... its as if holding a portfolio of these assets have a stigma attached... its comes across to me, as if we would have to pay someone to take these assets off our hands...:confused:....

I mean....
as in my last post, ive got Bariweka booked at 21.8 million barrels of oil (BOE)... CUE's take on Maari is only 2.5million barrels...
OSH are stepping up PNG LNG big time...
2013 production... Bariweka will be apart of that...
who cares if Bariweka is downgraded or not...

Bariweka appraisal well planned for 4th quarter 2009...
This will mix well with a busy 3rd quarter....
ARGGGHHHH....
:cool:
.^sc

jdg

07-01-2009, 01:32 PM

i'm still with you, shrewdy. 08 was a shocker for me, but looking forward to 09 - and i think CUE will play a big part of that. even without exploration success, by the end of 09 (so long as PoO holds up) we'll be doing well.

-j

tricha

07-01-2009, 10:01 PM

U got the market excited today Shrewd, keep up the good work. Zeus will hopefully double Cues price.:p

15.5
http://www.stocknessmonster.com/images/green_round_small.gif 2.5 19.2%
6:59 pm

Oh well... im the only one posting here lately...
am I a ramper?
well.......lets see?

im not wrong in a normal market.... bar nothing....

Im here because im so right and I dont care how long it takes for this to turn.......
mack this and mack that will tell me im wrong for sure...............
............
.......
.....

usually after the facts, hunters come in for the kill !
this time is just the same as other hunts...
I am the predator...

ok ok ok...

lets break down some proven numbers for all of us to see...
first oil assets, then gas assets

OIL ASSETS

Oyong oil current production, and 370,000 barrels to come to CUE......
S E Gobe current production, and 200,000 barrels to come to CUE.......
Maari--> 2,500,000 barrels to come with certain upside***...

oil reserves so far... add all 2P oil assets up and we get--> 3,070,000 million barrels of oil.....

GAS ASSETS

First of all I will change gas assets to Oil assets converted equilivant... Gas assets do not necessailry mean equilivant prices to Oil, but More so the point of equilivant energy consumption per barrel....the rate between oil and gas is 5487 cubic feet equals to one barrel of oil... ..... so 1 barrel of oil=5.487 MCF....

BOE is in terms of energy consumption of oil barrels of total company production profile, without breaking down each asset class within the sector...

OK ok ok ok... lets list CUE's gas 2P assets...

1)30 BCF Kimu
2)2.5 BCF S E Gobe..... quoted as 2P but apart of PNG LNG equilivant, even though unyet undefined..... smaller production risk, and less PNG LNG risk makes up for 2P reserves easy (and small also)....
3)120 BCF Bariweka
4)12 BCF Oyong Gas Production 2009
5)12 BCF Wortel Gas Production 2010
6) 120 BCF Cash Maple

1)30,000,000,000cf/5487cf=5,467,468 barrels...
2)2,500,000,000cf/5487cf=455622 barrels...
3)120,000,000,000cf/5487cf=21,869,874 barrels...
4)2,186,987 barrels
5)same as above
6)same as 3)

add these up and we get 54,036,992 barrels of oil equilivant...
add in barrels of oil 2P and we have 57,106,992....

also note that 1) kimu did have a downgrade (I cant remember the exact figure so minus a few million off that), if need be...

divide the total number by the market value of the company and we have
one barrel of oil equal to $1.375 (2DP) AUS....

no bull...

when we change all of CUE's gas assets to oil assets equliviant, and add oil assets---> we have one barrel (in total) equal to $1.375 (2PD) AUS.... wow...

ok so... whats wrong with the valuation?

well, nothing really... other than the fact that some of CUE's assets are longer term... Maari short term asset of Maaro is less than 30 days off 1st oil production.... Maari was bought by CUE for $1.48 US per barrel...
development costs have added to this...
time value of money added to all costs makes this an extremely profitable project... A project that could possbily ramp all other projects off of.....

in the conventional sector we bank on bankables....
and add in possibile upsides (free of charge)...

All of us in this sector now have to account for unconventional oil and gas assets too... I didnot believe these assets would boom in the current climate, which I was proven wrong)....
oh well.... trial and error in the market place... banking on bankables is where I wanted to play my game.

I have positioned myself nicely so that I will perform if unconventional sectors perform or not....upside blue sky for real...

two shots at 50 cent CUE sp for real this year.... and if both wells go bad then CUE Will still be above 30 CPS>...
if one good then above.......

I worked out that Zeus which will spud mid Jan could add 40 million barrels of oil (BOE) to cue, for its given stake... that would almost double CUEs proven 2P assets.....

Tricha posted that AWE has 62 million barrels of 2P reserves...
Does Tricha also know that CUE has BOE of 57 Million barrels with upside,

a fraction of the market value in comparison....

billions vs millions here... for real....

no joke...

AWE is more advanced...

sure CUE is still off major cashflows....
and sure CUE does not yet have major oil producing cashflows...

this has always been the risk we have taken...

this is truely the best oil stock ive seen in 6 years of investment, and will truely be the same until material change occurs...

all others ive played and tipped are nothing in comparison in terms of risk return... risk profile....

does CUEs assets almost equal AWE's bank sheet?

why yes... but not in current production..... sell AWE... sell PPP... sell NZO... sell them all.... Sell them all for CUE... this is where its at......

This is what we invest over the long term for...
not the biggest return possible here...
weighing in risks, nothing is better....

one dollar CPS over the next 5 years I reckon at CUE...
I can wait no prob....
same story different month...
nothings really changed

management creating deals with all the big caps, that all small caps dream of... also added in diversifed this and that and blah blah blah...

what more do I have to say...

assets better than NZO... for real....

Go figure...

DYOR...

as said... 2009 is where we make back all losing positions..
others will jump in after the boom and say they bought at lows after the spike......
forget about them... this is where its at....

show yourself now... bank on bankables...

CUE energy has barrels of oil equilivant worth $1.377 AUS per barrel of oil.....

ok ok ok.... lets put this on another level.......

market cap of 78.5 million dollars.....

Barrels of oil equilivant of 57,106,992 million barrels of oil....

*** add in the triple star upside from Maari, (namely Manaia), and two zones of M2A, Moki........

CUE with such a minute mcap, diversfed, diuversifed asset class, diversifed region, diversifed stage... and all that...

and major Maari production less than 30 days off.... this is a long term play... NZO is a mini compared....

GET positioned correctly....
dont get me wrong.... NZO is one of the best.... (top 5)...
CUE is better down the line than that no prob basec on proven assets...

make money over the next 2 months...... get in CUE...
:cool:
.^sc