CUE-> Pantheon of small oil stocks [Archive]

Crypto Crude

29-07-2007, 04:58 PM

CUE energy- NEW Shrewd crude pick....
This time I want to be alot more professional about my pick and I willnot be raging bull all the time, I hope to have a balanced view of this pick that will return 100% minimum over a one year play...

before I start talking about the company I want to take the time to discuss
1....what type of investment this is,
2....talk about some of the risks,
3....and tell you where im positioned in CUE...

1.... This is the type of investment suited to a person with an investment term of around one year plus a few months if need be... this is not a short term investment where multi baggers will be made in weeks/ months, but the upside is big over a period and upside is present in the short term and medium term.... this is not the type of investment with a long term view... it is the type of investment following a few key projects into production including Maari-(NZ offshore), Oyong oil, and Oyong and wortel gas tie into Oyong oil facilitys late next year if you are prepared to hold through... I will discuss these projects at a later stage...(it is a pure spec oiler nearing production) and fits all the criteria I have of spec oilers nearing production...
so investment term is 1 year plus possibly a few months...

2....CUE energy is favourable in terms of risk return...
The biggest risk CUE has is market risk... if markets are stable this will return well... if markets volatile, then this maynot be the best pick suited for your risk profile...
It is up the the individual to understand market risk, and dont blame me if markets turn this share soft... blame me in alittle over one year if this stock turns soft and markets are up...

it is similar to other stocks I have held with low downside and big up... downside risks are alittle higher than my previous picks... and are due to project delays and Exploration/ projects being in Indonesia/ and Sampang PSC which is risky in itself... Oyong is a project that has been delayed multiple times similar to that of Pike, Santos is running the project and Production is expected late this quarter...
Jeruk has been unsuccessful in exploiting its large potential and currently holds little value for the company, but does hold oil reserves around 50million barrels..
This type of investment is not based on luck through exploration success... it is about investing in projects that will re-rate similar to what Tui has done to NZO as projects sure up and become more certain as they come closer to coming online... Maari production is massive for the growth of this company... but is abit more risk as Oil needs to be heated up for extraction to occur rather than natural flow rates, Production will need to be stopped at times to heat the oil up...

The todds are one of the richest and familys in NZ, they currently own 25% of CUE...
management is capable, but sometimes doesnot disclose like some would hope...
current disclosure is about par within this industry

3....At the moment I am not currently in CUE, I am not in because I will have to sell a position of another holding, and I will sell NZOOD once Tui production comes online and hector gets closer...
I think SP could be strong soon and I dont want others to miss out because im not in and because of that not pushing CUE... I look to return more in nzood in the short term before transferring into CUE for a 1 plus a bit play, and make 100% minimum... CUE has been strong lately and On friday sp was stable in a falling market... SP has risen off 12-13cent lows this year and its still an undervalued play...

As I have said before, SP cannot be determined in weeks months or even a year or two....
One thing I can say is that the path of the Share price looks up and up to me...
upside is bigger than 100%, 100% is a bench mark
[8D]
.^sc

Crypto Crude

29-07-2007, 05:10 PM

CUE is currently trading at 22cents...
Markets are expected to open down on monday, so this may give you some time to DYOR and see what happens to market volatility over a few days...
[8D]
.^sc

mattyroo

29-07-2007, 09:25 PM

Shrewd,

Following our discussions via PM on SS, I have been doing a bit more research on CUE, reading your posts on SS also.

As I advised you then I have been in CUE (small holding) for about 2 months now and am more than happy with the gains so far. Bought in @ 18c so up 22% now. I haven't added to my position yet, too busy topping up on something that I said I wouldn't top up on...... NWE!! Been good buying there of late.

Now back to CUE;

Oyong will come on eventually, whilst this has been far from a stellar project, fundamentally it will be good for the company. Oyong will not add greatly to the share price until production, it may even cause negativity if their is more bad news to be announced or gets out and about. As we all know these projects always experience delay. With pretty meagre flows and CUE only having a 15% interest, I don't believe Oyong will be a great driver of the share price. I do however believe it will give it some solid depth.

Maari will be delayed, as is always with these projects, it is not a matter of if and when, but for how long. But, once production starts and those 35000 bbopd start flowing on to the Raroa, share price will rise most definitely. The interesting thing will be how much CUE gets re-rated as Maari production nears.

I haven't had a chance to get on the Raroa yet and have a look around as I promised. Off to Pakistan for a few days this week, once I get back I will definitely get on board. Will try then to get an accurate gauge of status / progress / completions.

Also to note that we should soon start getting announcements out regarding the Kimu seismic survey. If all looks good with the survey and interpretations are for the +ve, I'm of the opinion this should also be a small driver to SP.

Another thing that I don't think people are completely aware of, is the connection between OMV and CUE. OMV is a massive Austrian oil company. They have just been awarded exploration permits to the GSB in conjunction with Todd Energy. Todd Energy is the by far the largest holder in CUE with approx 25% of CUE, being held through to different entities. If all goes well with the Maari JV and OMV make a significant discovery in the GSB, hopefully CUE will be farmed in as a JVP. Obviously all this is speculation on my part, but if all said "planets were to line up", then we could have a ripper here.

I think it was you who said "CUE will limp into 2008", I wholly agree with this, but come production of Oyong, Maari and some exciting news from some of their other interests, they will be able to throw their crutches away and start running.

Exciting times ahead.

Cheers,
Roo

Dazza

29-07-2007, 10:12 PM

pyong is the problem IMO

i was in cue a few years ago, pyong is their indonesian oil thing eh, maybe it was jerek, flow rates were not as good as had thought etc, alot of technical difficulties

i brought at 25 and sold at 24.5

that was about 2 months be4 the todds came along

todds are good with the energy sector so with them holding 25% = big thumbs up

Crypto Crude

29-07-2007, 10:39 PM

hey Mattyroo,
first of all....
you are a great asset to have at this thread...you have insight from a different angle that I just cannot provide... So thankyou for posting....

mattyroo-"Oyong will not add greatly to the share price until production, it may even cause negativity if their is more bad news to be announced or gets out and about."

this is the exact reason why I did not push the stock earlier, but SP has come up and Oyong has gotton closer... CUE had the exact same problem that NZO had over the last few years.... CUE just like NOZ had multiple Projects all a few years from production and development was soldiering along... and SP was flat or dropping...
now that production is coming close, then SP is starting to re-rate...
and Oyong is substantial revenues to CUE if it can get 1500 barrels per day as a recent announcement suggests...expected flow rates (8k to 10k per day at 15%)....

So yes I have miss interpreted The way that CUE would re-rate because I thought Oyong would get delayed further this year (and it did) and because of all the negativity around Oyong that the Market would wait for production to re-rate this one...

The thing about CUE is that on a forward looking basis, Oyong could dissapear, Jeruk could dissapear and Maari could Drive the CUE ship all the way... some of CUEs other permits look amazing in principle... and I will no doubt go over some of them...
which will be explored sooner when Oyong comes online...

mattyroo-"Maari will be delayed, as is always with these projects, it is not a matter of if and when, but for how long. But, once production starts and those 35000 bbopd start flowing on to the Raroa, share price will rise most definitely. The interesting thing will be how much CUE gets re-rated as Maari production nears."

well because CUE willnot be a spec oiler when Maari production comes around... SP will rise up much sooner IMO...
But none the Less I do feel that attaching a 100% return to this company is absolutely appropriate and watching the shrewd rumble with CUE is not a problem...

I will detail CUE more indepth soon...
[8D]
.^sc

clearasmud

29-07-2007, 10:41 PM

The thing about Cue is ... Solid management.
Encouraged me to increase my investment and average down.
21-22c probably is still good buying.

Tok3n

30-07-2007, 02:13 PM

Won't Maari be much more difficult to get into production then Tui, so could expect further delays?

I'm a holder, dreaming of a JV in the GSB too hehe.

mattyroo

30-07-2007, 02:57 PM

quote:Originally posted by Tok3n

Won't Maari be much more difficult to get into production then Tui, so could expect further delays?

Why do you say that? Is there a technical reason or otherwise? As I type this I am looking out the window at the Raroa FPSO for Maari field, so hopefully I can answer any technical related questions.

Cheers,
Roo

Tok3n

30-07-2007, 05:12 PM

Need to dig up the old link which compared Tui vs Maari, but hasn't Maari production date been pushed out?

On the upside alot of the JV's in Maari like HZN have said that there's a potential for a reserve upgrade there.

Anyone following HZN too? thats how I found CUE because of the JV in Maari.

Crypto Crude

30-07-2007, 07:40 PM

quote:Tok3n
1....Need to dig up the old link which compared Tui vs Maari, but hasn't Maari production date been pushed out?

2....On the upside alot of the JV's in Maari like HZN have said that there's a potential for a reserve upgrade there.

3....Anyone following HZN too? thats how I found CUE because of the JV in Maari.

Hey tok3n,
1... yes Maari's production date has been pushed out.... maari 1stP had been put back 3 months and then another 3 months, now making it 6 months behind on previous estimates....
If you are comparing Tui vs Maari then TUI has been pushed further aswell and has been held up by AT least ONE year on what earliest announcements had told us
....
delays in the oil industry such as 1st production, exploration wells which came through late, Joint venture/partnership agreements take longer than expected, organising a drilling rig takes longer, undervaluation of the company takes longer to re-rate, this is what the oil industry is all about... and sometimes there are no delays, YOU cannot rule them out...
so yes Maari is 6 months late and is expected to be in production in the 3rd quarter of 2008.... so about one year from now is first production, at that stage the company will already no longer be speculative because it will have positive cashflow through OIL production at Oyong, (and CUE already has minor revenues from SE GOBE...shhhh:D.....
....)...
2... upside at maari huh?, do you care to share alittle bit more information on that....[8D]......S C Is more focusing on what we currently have, and CUE's take is 2.5 million barrels compared to HZNs 5 million barrel take if you want to compare tok3n...CUE gets more barrels of oil for its market cap because CUE is much less than half the market value of HZN, (not comparative analysis taking into account seperate projects)...

3....Yes I follow HZN, And saying that opens up a new chapter with First Australian Resources who also holds a major asset with HZN...
Yes HZN is another play on Maari, but CUE IS the ONLY Company offering near term expected production which is major for this company... HZN first production is Maari next year, HZN have drilling program in CHina sea late this year... short term first production, then short term HZN drills, then hold for for Maari is all the same...
I believe CUE will return more from here over the next 2 years than compared to HZN.... cue is 22 and HZN is 36.5.... track them both... CUE will return far more in percentage terms compared to HZN over the next two years, I WILL reference this example down the line...

Mattyroo yes I do have questions about the technical side, I will show you something first before I start asking questions..
:)
.^sc

clips

30-07-2007, 08:37 PM

yep i'm in the queue for some cue, from what i can gather they are holding 30mill cash, grossed approx 9mill last year, when oyong and maari both get pumping cue should be grossing approx 52mill/annum..... has some wise and wealthy
major shareholders (you can do a lot worse than following the successful). could take 12-18mths for sp to really perk up but it will happen....
100% gain ?? well from 22c it is very possible and more likely than sliding to 11c....imho..

bermuda

30-07-2007, 08:47 PM

whiteheron

30-07-2007, 08:52 PM

I have CUE purchased at various times
Average cost of 18c

It is taking rather longer to fire than I originally anticipated but looks promising for the next 12 to 18 months
Should put on 50% to 100%, maybe more in that time
Very little downside risk in my opinion as producing assets alone, I believe, warrent the current share price
Anything else will be cream on the pudding

My opinion only --- time will tell

clips

30-07-2007, 09:02 PM

your right bermunda , won't be transferring out of nzo,nzood's for this one (or any other at the moment)

mattyroo

07-08-2007, 12:24 AM

Anybody got any thoughts on today's announcement regarding "Informal Approach"? Could this turn into a takeover?

clearasmud

07-08-2007, 01:01 AM

Anybody got any thoughts on today's announcement regarding "Informal Approach"? Could this turn into a takeover?

of course it could but who would know.
We will just have to wait,if no news is forthcoming we may see a juicy buying opportunity

Crypto Crude

07-08-2007, 11:32 AM

Mattyroo...
as many will know...
I donot usually like talking about Takeover topic because it is speculation and hype only, (until it actually happens, or there is market info then it means little to me,... things are starting to happen here so I guess we can talk)...
cleasrasmud is correct, anything is possible and we just dont know...

Im not so confident of a takeover, or a merger just yet... anything is possible...
talk at the moment suggests some sort of mutual company agreement/sharing of knowledge/staff/services etc....something like that, it is not exactly clear on what they will be sharing just yet ... and doesnot suggest a merger is imminent...
If Singapore petroleum (SPC) were to make some hostile move then surely they would have let CUE fall on market days like yesterday which is what we have seen recently and trend with the market, and then attack when SP when it falls below 20cents..(this is what the shrewd would do if he were calling the shots)... and at the same time, without letting the cat out of the bag...

the fact that SPC has been purchasing CUE shares on market and now has somewhere above 5%, last stood at 5.38% does say something...CUE and SPC do share Oyong which SPC has a 45% stake...this stake in CUE says good things are too come with Oyong... Reports coming through from Santos now suggest that first production will flow 5-8k, instead of the previously thought 8-10k...and first production in september... I will post an article soon...

... the fact that SPC has not made formal intentions means that they may be testing CUE for a response only...Cue expect a formal offer and not no chit chat.. this is to prove that SPC are serious and not just yarning storys... SPC's could be spining yarns to keep their investments in CUE afloat in a rough time for markets...
If Markets do fall further and CUE rides with the flow then CUE will be a prime takeover, because it is so cheap on forward expected earnings (I havenot yet calculated what they will be), they will be massive if oyong oil, maari oil, oyong gas, wortel gas produce... we are looking at an PE ratio so low, that even NWE's forward looking ratio at current share prices of around 2-3 approx will be surpassed....
And if there were a company to takeover CUE, SPC would be right up there along with santos.... Singapore petroleum SP has risen 600% over the last 4 years...

I donot believe that a takeover of CUE would be favourable for shareholders.... we have an asset here which is 100% undervalued (forward looking)...with the big up, and low down (ignoring market risk) and I highly doubt that an offer would be at a 100% premium to current sp... I did say early on that If CUE did not rise 100% in the next year and abit then I would be prepared for a hammering... but I did warn of market risk....
...
Singapore and CUE have synergies...SPC doesnot have a massive presence in indonesia but does share Oyong with CUE... and CUE and SPC do share similar assets in the bass basin which are close to each other...
Singapore petroleum does have pipeline investments transmitting gas from indonesia to singapore, which could come into play for CUE down the line...
Many of SPC's assets (acerage) are north west of sampang stretching to Cambodia and vietnam... SPC have a big presence in this region which is considered risky, and have done it successfully......
if market risk was zero... then this stock is a certainty... no doubt about that...
I will be doing a Company summary of CUE soon.... patience is required with Cue and with the summary...hahaha.....

oh, Bermuda, Im not here to persuade anybody... Im here to suggest attractive investments only... Capital B.... Cue will have more growth than NZO, unlike what you say...
do you want to place a bet on it?

Crypto Crude

08-08-2007, 02:26 PM

September start for Oyong

By Upstream staff

Singapore Petroleum Company (SPC) expects first oil to start flowing from the Indonesian Oyong field in September, chief executive Koh Ban Heng said.

“The barge will now sail for Oyong next week and will take a couple of weeks to reach the field. First oil is now expected in September.' Koh told the Singapore Business Times newspaper.

SPC had indicated in its second quarter results statement earlier this week that first oil production from Oyong was targeted to be in the second half of the year.

The Oyong joint venture partners have had problems securing and mobilising the production barge amid the tight rig market.

Santos, the field's Australian operator, said last month that between 5000 and 8000 barrels of oil per day are expected from the field off East Java.

It will be SPC's second producing field after Indonesia's Kakap, where the company is currently pumping 2540 bpd of oil equivalent.

Santos has a 45% interest in Oyong. SPC has a 40% stake and Australia’s Cue Energy holds the remaining 15%.

Crypto Crude

13-08-2007, 03:31 PM

Bought some CUE today... after selling some NWE on the back of 1st production jitters... I was heavily overweight in NWE and I sold down NWE to fund cue...
SPC buying CUE shares gives me great confidence that Oyong will turn positive and the cashflow will be valuable to CUE which is expected next month at the latest...

jdg

13-08-2007, 04:25 PM

yeah, i think SPC's buying into CUE is a huge vote of confidence. i'm also buoyed by the fact the sp has maintained good form despite the market downturn. one would expect a good run up to Oyong (oil then gas) and then on to Maari. of course, upside potential through exploration as well. delays are possible, but all looking very good.

Crypto Crude

22-08-2007, 03:22 PM

Shrewd Crude report

Cue Energy company profile...

-Company status: Spec oiler nearing production, on the brink of first major production...
-Market value of CUE $145M Aus....
-Todd Energy hold 25% of CUE.... The Todds are one of the richest families in NZ.. if not the...
-Cue have a large/diverse range of large capped JV partners such as Santos, Oil Search, Coogee Resources (unlisted), OMV, recent Beach Farmin which announced drill in T/38p in 2nd half of 2008 which is postive for a nearer term drill... potential of 33-57 million barrels with Cue taking 10%...
-singapore petroleum which has recently bought 6.5% of Cue and they are in early stages of negotiating tighter Company relations...
-These Large oilers are great partners, CUE will feed off these companys through faster tracked development, greater expertise from those companys etc... I rate Cues JV partners, and I have not seen a company like this that has such connections...
-Performance since I picked it here: I picked CUE at the top of the market at 22cents, and its still around those levels now...
-cash position, $9.1m on hand as at quarter ended 30 June... expected cashflow expenditure for the quarter starting July is $9.04m....
Large quarterly expenditure is through developments of Oyong and Maari, and some exploration activity to build the company in the future as large revenues will be poured back into growth....Loan facilities of $23.529m... and zero has been used on the loans...no capital raisings are necessary...

PRODUCTION...
quarterly revenue from SE Gobe of $1.9m aus per quarter...
Production is on a small scale ->still a spec... on the brink of large cash revenues from Oyong oil project...

DEVELOPMENT...
Cue is rather similar to the company situation New Zealand oil and Gas was in where they had multiple developing projects that have been sucking up cash, and are on the brink of a re-rating as this will be a new company after 1st oyong production which is expected to start next month...

OYONG OIL- 1st production set for September. Production barge sailing to field. Singapore petroleum purchasing CUE shares (oyong JV partner) gives me great confidence...5-8k BOPD with 15% CUe stake... mid recoverable reserves are 6million barrels of oil... 900k barrels to CUE....

OYONG GAS- 97BCF mid range recoverable reserves... 1st production late 2008... 60mfc/d.... 81k approx to CUE per day...
-> approx 130m revenues to cue in total...

MAARI- P50, 50million barrels -> 2.5 million barrels to CUE... area upside 10-20m barrels.... expected 35000 BOPD... so 1750 to CUE...
major revenues to CUE... does have risk in that oil has to be heated up before it can be extracted..large project and major company driver....

WORTEL GAS TIE IN....90BCF mid case, has been discovered... will be tied into Oyong facilities....

other discoverys,
Jeruk, may or maynot be a developing project... 50million barrels recoverable interpretted...

EXPLORATION....
CUE has a major diversified portfolio of great acerage with mammoth potential... including AC/RL7 (timor sea), murray deep, Kimu, Barikewa and many other permits....
one of Cues JV partners is Oil Search, which has a strategic relationship with Exxon....they are looking to extract gas in Indonesia and and ship it back to The US.. where 4 major refineries are in planning stage to be built, This gas would help supply these refineries, and CUE will be in on this aswell with their permits.... reserves in indonesia are massive and CUE will be there to extract them as a minor player along with Exxon, Oil Search, MOS...
speculation....CUE could have a minor role in Great south basin, in the Future with Todd connections, and OMV as mattyroo has said...
....
company positives and negatives....
Positives...
undervalued 100% on a forward looking basis,imminent production, diversified development projects, company at every stage in oil process... (exploration,discovery,development, production)...
production still on smaller scale now, but will be major driver for the company over the next year and abit as Oyong oil, oyong gas, wortel gas, Maari come online as producers....Singapore petroleum recently taking a stake in the company (6.5%).... left field announcement potential....

negatives,
soverign risk, market risk, (some of the regions where CUE are in can be rather instable...).... two directors leaving since may...

CUE is the company you want to invest in if You want the low down big up, (bar market risk).... alot would have to happen for this one to turn a loss, and that willnot be the case.... 4 seperate developments provide massive reveunes, and no doubt that SP will boom as these developments de-risk themselves further... CUE is one of my favourite stocks and Ive been watching it for 5 years now... I bought in a week or two back, but have sold all my shares now, so Im just watching at this stage... sold because of market risk...
If markets are stable, then this is the pick for sure... it is up to you to determine your risk profile and what this company holds within the context of your portfolio in the current market....

so market cap of $145m
recoverable oil to Cue stands at 3.4million barrels in CUEs hands...
and gas valued at roughly $250million in revenues, recoverable Gas to CUE...
145m/3.4m=$42.... CUEs market value on recoverable oil alone has the company valued at $42 per barrel , not including gas, not including exploration, Jeruk...
I believe that CUE could be one of the next oilers to become an upper tier oiler... much larger potential is present beyond that of current development
:cool:
.^sc

Crypto Crude

22-08-2007, 03:27 PM

I hate MOS, Im not picking it...
:cool:
.^sc

Serpie

22-08-2007, 03:54 PM

SC,
Do I take it from your disclosure that you aren't holding anything at the moment?

kissssik

22-08-2007, 09:28 PM

Held MOS about 5 years ago, got my $ back but just......got me excited back then....train to no where IMO, but like all oilers it only takes one hole full of the black stuff and u know the rest.

kissssik

22-08-2007, 09:31 PM

Great write up SC, thanks for your input & time on this report, more of this reporting will keep this forum useful, unlike HC.

Crypto Crude

22-08-2007, 11:20 PM

Serpie thats right, all gone...100% cash...
ods have been falling away so all is good...
....
serpmister,
you savage cat.... get some CUE... you owe it to yourself to make some bigger returns...
later, and for-real....
:D
.^sc

Crypto Crude

22-08-2007, 11:32 PM

kissssik,
lets not talk about HC... they are all rampers who dont back it up with facts...anyway....
CUE was the first company I ever saw, and was the first company I ever invested in... I have been following this stock for 5 years and nowadays the info comes straight off the top...
CUE is looking the best it has in 5 years, and its on the brink of first production, it is still a company with cash out flow.... but, times will change very soon... this will be a cash cow... and this cow will give birth to many other little cows...
what oilers are you holding kissssik?
:cool:
.^sc

kissssik

23-08-2007, 12:05 AM

SC, holding 30,000 NZO & Zillions of options which were looking great for a while @ $1700 a point., (ave .12) have held most oilers for a time over the last couple of years, and have an interest in this sector...have made some good coin out of NZO over the years but this is one I now intend to hold on to for a little longer an absolute no brainer 50/70 point gain over the next 3-6 months IMO.....will watch CUE and look to put some coin in late September after all the market vol has settled down....until then I'm day trading only, leaving nothing (except the above) on the table...trading ASX 200 oilers stocks with large daily swings using CFD's

jdg

23-08-2007, 01:51 PM

nice little rise today. similar to you, sc, i cashed up half my holdings. i fluked it very well about a month ago. am surprised you are out of CUE, though. when are you planning to get back in? the buy side looks strong today. and it looks like SPC haven't stopped buying them yet. i'm holding. i really like the look of this one.

whiteheron

27-08-2007, 11:58 AM

On the weekend I reviewed the charts for all of my holdings and CUE was the best looking one by a large margin

Whilst others were falling like autumn leaves CUE was going sideways or upwards
This, I believe, bodes well for considerable advances by CUE in the next 6 to 18 months
Great to have Singapore Petroleum sniffing around as well --- they will be well aware of the value in CUE

My opinion only, time will tell

jdg

30-08-2007, 10:03 AM

now geoffrey albers has been purchasing CUE (to the tune of more than 4.5m shares). always encouraging when the directors are buying up.

seaosh

30-08-2007, 10:42 AM

Yeah I noticed that. A good sign. I just got into this a couple of days ago. I was toying with the idea of waiting a few days to try and buy a couple of cents cheaper, but in the end I went ahead and got some at 23.5. Hmm. . . makes me feel better for not waiting anyway.

jdg

30-08-2007, 11:02 AM

with SPC (with a very large stake) and alber both buying in around that level, you’re certainly in good company. First oil from oyong next month, gas from oyong by year’s end, and maari and wortel after that – there is a great deal on the immediate horizon (even ignoring the upside from exploration). Shrewd’s prediction of 100 percent within a year looks pretty good. And with the recent buying, it seems like people close to the projects agree.

whiteheron

30-08-2007, 11:36 AM

With Director Albers buying up very large CUE has to be looking better and better

A little patience will, I believe, pay handsomely

Crypto Crude

10-09-2007, 01:22 PM

CUE up slightly on a terrible market day...
Not bad if your holding a one stock portfolio and its the only stock you can see that is up eah....
.....
hey seaosh...
nice to meet you... Im starting to learn chinese this week...
My friend kiki wasnot overly happy...
:cool:
.^sc
disc: cue,cash....

seaosh

10-09-2007, 08:07 PM

Nice to meet you too Shrewd Crude.

I had a buy order in to pick more CUE today and Friday but no luck yet. . . Set my order at 22 cents today hoping to slyly grab some on the cheap. Someone did get in at 22 cents today but it wasn't me.

So what was Kiki annoyed at? Me and the Taiwan thing? Or you and the learning Chinese thing?

I wasn't exactly advocating Taiwan independence. Ask Oiler. I was just saying that the real history is misunderstood.

Let me know if you need any help with the Chinese. I might be able to suggest some books and stuff.

Crypto Crude

10-09-2007, 08:53 PM

seaosh,
good move on the 22cent bid...you probably set it about right with the market day, but just not a big need to sell with first production imminent...
yes she was annoyed at the Taiwan thing...
buyers should be chasing from here on in, but market volatility dampen an effort for a breakout...
I will keep in touch, maybe I will call you up when Im a fluent speaker like yourself....
....
:cool:
.^sc

jdg

12-09-2007, 12:38 PM

shasta

12-09-2007, 12:56 PM

with the oyong production barge on location, i'm surprised the price has remained quite static. it seems immune (both up and down) to the recent market swings. although the gas (coming later in the year) is of much greater value than the oil, i was expecting a bit of a spike (maybe staying static in this market is reward enough...?). perhaps a rise in sp can be expected on first oil being pumped? only a couple of weeks to wait - if that. as noted, SPC and albers know as much about the project as anybody, and given they're buying i'm happy to wait.
-j

O&G stocks are a unpredictable lot, the specs rise & go crazy on just the sniff of the blackgold, & producers like NZO & TEX can go nowhere!

It's a waiting game for those with the patienta!

JDG - Take comfort if Shrewd Crude is a raging bull on it, she WILL fly.

jdg

12-09-2007, 01:23 PM

hell, i'm not even sure shrewdy's mum loves him enough to guarantee his stock picks. if she did she may be paying out of bit on NZOG oppies...

nevertheless, shaster, i think mr crude's on to a good one here. i'm along for the ride (and expecting a good month; good few months in fact).

-j

Crypto Crude

12-09-2007, 01:57 PM

jdg,
nzood is still up on where I first picked them... up 200% and then all the way back down... I was lucky to get out when I did...
I have never picked an over night wonder... its about the big picture and nothing much has changed just yet other than SPC and Albers buying which is a signal only...
Oil prices closed last night at an all time high close... and I did describe that CUE is a one year play for 100%... you will either have to watch or be patient to find out....
Im expecting a nice jump when they announce first oil...
CUE will be on a PE lower than 3...
this will be a cashcow... and it does have its risks which I briefly outlined...
:cool:
.^sc

jdg

12-09-2007, 03:59 PM

you would have seen this, SC, but for interested others - look at pages 7 & 8. the income in coming years is really incredible.

http://cuenrg.onlinepublicity.net/files/grabdoc.php?type=doc&id=421&cid=105

esprit

12-09-2007, 05:30 PM

Interesting thread. I have been on the lookout for a junior oiler and CUE could be the one :)

Crypto Crude

12-09-2007, 11:49 PM

jdg,
yes that is the way I calculated income figures, but I think that providing those details to the forumn is not accurate as it depends on what figures are used for POO and POG... and im abit of a raging bull on prices...
also, delays and lower than expected flow rates could gobble everything up... I posted an article here and Santos were expecting much lower flow rates than 10k BOPD from Oyong...

espirit,
Cue is a well diversified small oiler, the company has all fingers in the pie with multiple developing projects... this investment is not about Exploration upside just yet, the major focus is bringing developing projects online and into production, and first Oyong production is expected any time now... -> exploration will become more of a focus when CUE has greater cash backing through large revenues...
look at those figures from jdg's attachment, multiple them out by corresponding prices... and you will find they are massive...
IMO this is a safe, well protected investment bar market risk...
:cool:
.^sc

seaosh

14-09-2007, 03:58 PM

Shaping up to be a big day for CUE. Looks like we may see 2 million shares traded and a close at a new high.

jdg

17-09-2007, 12:50 PM

again, volumes are high with sp appreciation. this could be the start of the oyong run. let's just hope for problem-free start up. first oil must only be a matter of days away now.

Crypto Crude

21-09-2007, 03:08 AM

http://www.rigzone.com/news/article.asp?a_id=50432
Work on Maari will begin in first quarter of 2008....
:cool:
.^sc

jdg

21-09-2007, 01:27 PM

thanks for that, shrewd.
next news should be oil from oyong. i expect a good lift following positive news from that. there has been no market guidance to change the estimate of from first oil (sept), so it must be next week. the project has achieved beautiful timing with the surge in oil price.
-j

jdg

24-09-2007, 12:07 PM

first oil from oyong announced this morning. good news.

Crypto Crude

26-09-2007, 04:16 PM

The very recent first production ann from Oyong did have some new information that has had an adverse effect on the company...
....first production of Oyong gas is now not expected until 1st half of 2009, whereas it was originally one year after first oyong oil...
Once full flow rates are achieved from Oyong, it would signal a time to exit if you are not holding all the way... I'm going to continue to hold my stake as I believe SP will tick up slowly as we go through the stages as Maari gets closer.... Wortel appraisal drilling, Bass Basin (free carried) drilling, murray deep, and hopefully some more exploration action in 2008 will bode well with massive maari production and other developments...
Cue is surely undervalued on a forward looking basis...
:cool:
.^sc

upside_umop

30-09-2007, 01:04 PM

hey sc,
i've been watching cue for a while also and been slowly watching the chart trend upwards over the last year.
been thinking of buying in on a little retracement, maybe back to 22-23 cents from my estimates. could be pushing my luck there though.
plus im temp low on funds, just splashed out and bought a few iPhones...anybody for an iPhone?

macduffy

01-10-2007, 01:51 PM

Just had a look at the Cue annual report and thinking about the odds on co coming back to shareholders for more cash next year. Exploration expense was $25m and cash on hand about $9m. There will be income from oil and maybe a little gas to offset and who knows what 07/08 expl costs will be but further issues seem highly possible.
What say the experts?

Crypto Crude

10-10-2007, 02:53 PM

macduffy,
Yes, Another capital raising is very possible...
CUE have project loan facility for Maari already in place, with a $20million loan from bank of scotland, but CUES share is 25million US of expenses, ongoing revenues from oyong oil, and SE gobe will help to ease the pressure....... other projects such as wortel gas, oyong gas, and ongoing exploration drilling need cash far above what the company currently has in cash reserves.... I would not concerned about CUE's capital raising requirements as the company has awesome prospects and cash is only one part of the situation....
CUE has a great mixture of debt and equity.... the debt creates leverage for the firm....
CUE will have no problem raising the cash, and the company has the biggest year of its history coming up... in the short term we have murray deep drilling (late 07, early 08), and wortel 3 appraisal drilling 1st quarter 08... the Annual report is a great read...
Im still holding all my CUE... i will hold all the way through...
CUE is a safe investment, regardless of another placement...
I expect CUE to slowly rerate as Maari comes closer to production...
Wortel appraisal drilling and murray deep provides big up...
macd, sorry about the late reply... ive been real busy lately and have been away from the computer......
:cool:
.^sc

macduffy

10-10-2007, 03:04 PM

Thanks SC.
Can't argue with that. Much appreciate your thoughts.

Disc: Holding and don't intend to sell.

macduffy

16-10-2007, 11:49 AM

Singapore Oil has announced that it has increased its holding from 8.45% to 9.5%.

Disc: Holding miniscule amount of CUE.

jdg

16-10-2007, 03:47 PM

yeah, i am pleasantly surprised that SPC just keeps on buying. it seems nobody else is. i think this is a really good story, but am disappointed that there wasn't a slightly bigger bounce on the announcement of first oil from oyong. maari and gas are the big plays, but i would have thought the market might enjoy that milestone a bit more than it did. also, if anybody has noticed (or cares...) i asked for a post to be pulled on the last page a couple of weeks back. i stated that CUE's share of SE Gobe was the total bpd rather than just its share. as it stood, it looked like a shocking ramp - though it appears i noticed before anybody else did. i was meaning to correct it with a new and more detailed post of CUE’s future income, and still plan to when i have time. in the meantime, let's hope that SPC just keeps on buying.
cheers,

-j

seaosh

19-10-2007, 01:18 PM

Looking good for CUE today. . . Nearly a million shares traded on the open and the price up a little. Not dramatic but it's looking healthy.

Crypto Crude

19-10-2007, 02:41 PM

Oil prices are at record highs, extending day after day....
Going into major production next year is great...
the 'option to delay production', is what analyst's are saying...
Revenues from Oyong are helping the company with its cashflow, grinding with massive oil prices...
.....
Every investor in this company is investing in the price of oil....
If prices are higher next year, which are likely then so will CUE... I have discussed the issues just abit b4... CUE will be much higher regardless of oil prices.... 100% gains next year is what im aiming for, and thats if CUE pulls through at par...
Last few days I have noticed big buying at 24.5c.... There is selling pressure on CUE because next big CUE activity is a few months off at best, but unexpected ann's come at any time...
... It will be on the markets to intuitively rate CUE according to its future prospects and that re-rating could bounce CUE anytime, ..... and that it will....
takeover talk has always surrounded this company but I have never bought into that idea...
SPC buying stake was always a good signal for cue with overlapping Oyong project... Oyong was always my previous concern which had Many delays...
NZO selling PPP sent a bad signal to market with overlapping Tui project...
....
One thing I am continuously learning is the re-rating proccess of oil companies, (which is the hardest things to analyse in this game)....no-one can predict the path, some can pick the price....
It is not hard making price predictions, and setting forward SP's ....It is very hard to work out when it will get to those targets (eg what month), and impossible to work out the path....not no-one ever has been able to predict sp accurately at a set time.... peak sharetraders can get around this by making longer term predictions to push aside that risk.... I have consistantly referred to patience....
I have only suggested one year to make the big ones... always felt that it sat right and not expecting short term explosion which is what some require for the risk of holding a 20c oil stock....
this may not suite some for the percieved risk CUE holds which is totally not the case... seriously, cue could have a few major setbacks and still pull through strong....

CUE has prospects, gas assets and permits which hold hidden value far above the current value of the company...
I have never ever ever seen a small oil company with JV partners in terms of the number that cue holds...
some of these extensive connections hold our future as an up and comer like no other....

... Timor sea permit alone is a monster... just check it out....Timor Sea is a great region to be exploring.... companies are starting to come back to this region after much recent success, and a period before that of unattractive low prices... which didnot make investment in the industry profitable, many diuscoveries werenot developed because of low prices... totally different market now......... I pray that CUE gets its show down with a coogee JV partner, drill in Timor Sea.....
I will be disapearing for a few weeks... have exams... see you all when I get back....
last day of Lectures...going to celebrate big...
:cool:
.^sc

shasta

19-10-2007, 06:56 PM

troyvdh

19-10-2007, 06:59 PM

SC....good luck.....it must be great to have a brain..esp a young one.Like you I have always been keen on this outfit...all the more so after the todds bought in at 22 cents (?)..again good luck...gee i cant remember when i last had a tired brain.....

clearasmud

19-10-2007, 10:28 PM

Shrewd and others,
I am still keen on quality oilers such as Cue.
others i like and hold include nxs,nzo,meo,bow,coi,exr,grl,oel,arq,tap,gog,ipm,co e.
Oil assets in my opinion are still cheap,so will hold for the long term.

regards,
Clearasmud

jdg

29-10-2007, 09:58 PM

i'm a little surprised that this doesn't seem to want to budge. oil at record highs and the markets up, yet cue just doesn't want to get ahead. the fundamentals are all there, however, sentiment just seems to be against it currently. certainly, there is a bit to do, but the rewards will be significant. i wonder if SPC are still buying, they seem to be getting a good stake without a fight.
-j

jdg

07-11-2007, 11:37 AM

i would have expected to hear news on Oyong flow rates by now. anybody know something i don't?
-j

jdg

12-11-2007, 12:39 PM

whoa, somebody got out in a hurry. not huge volume but a very big drop. a bit unnerving that.
-j

jdg

14-11-2007, 06:22 PM

there it is. first oil from oyong. good news. haven't had a good look at the release as i'm away from the office, but will do tomorrow.
-j

macduffy

15-11-2007, 11:36 AM

Increase in SPC's stake from 9.5% to 10.59% announced this morning.

Disc: Hold CUE

jdg

15-11-2007, 06:49 PM

SPC just keep buying shares. they're taking their time and not driving up the price. hats off, they've done it very well. it will be interesting to see if SPC stop at a 10% blocking stake or just keep going. either way, i find it enormously encouraging that they obviously like the company (and presumably see great value in Oyong oil and gas as well as Wortel in which they are in joint venture). appears all is well with Oynong oil and it's nice to get the first load out of the way. reserves there will be interesting. the estimates of what the field contains vary greatly. but it will be Maaori that really fills the coffers. next year is a biggie for Cue. in fact, really the next couple of years or so. just so much coming on line.
-j

Crypto Crude

16-11-2007, 01:23 PM

on the 12th CUE fell large and touched 19c... I think this was in response to further delays with Maari project, and market was dodge the previous night if I remember correctly......
The ensco 107 rig is due to drill Kupe prospects including Momoho...
and is now expected to become available for the Maari JV around March next year...
Maari JV will drill 5 oil development wells and 3 water injection wells...
so Project is now back further than on what it previously was thought...
an Oyong ann, reshot SP back up...

Meo have been pushing through seismic, heres the announcement...
great result with CUE being free carried...

ASX AND MEDIA RELEASE
NORTHWEST SHELF SEISMIC ACQUISITION & REPROCESSING
Key Points:
• MEO executes Letter of Award with PGS
• 3D reprocessing contract awarded to Dayboro Geophysical
• 3D acquisition expected to commence on December 1, 2007
MELBOURNE, AUSTRALIA (November 2, 2007) -- MEO Australia Limited (ASX: MEO),
in its capacity as operator is pleased to advise that a Letter of Award has been executed with
PGS Australia Pty Ltd securing the 3D seismic acquisition vessel, M/V Orient Explorer to
acquire approximately 250 sq km of 3D data and 250 line km of 2D data over the Company’s
Northwest Shelf permits, WA-359-P, WA-360-P and WA-361-P. 3D acquisition is scheduled
to commence on or about December 1, 2007 and is expected to require 17 days to complete.
The vessel will then be reconfigured to acquire 250 line km of new 2D data.
In addition, MEO has awarded a contract to reprocess approximately 600 sq km of existing
3D data to Dayboro Geophysical. The 3D data to be reprocessed is part of the Rosie 3D
survey acquired by Western Mining in 1997. The reprocessed data covers the large Zeus
feature in WA-361-P and will focus the application of modern processing streams to reduce
multiples and to recover the offset gathers so that accurate mapping and AVO analysis can be
undertaken. This is expected to further delineate the extent and nature of the “bright events”
noted within the target reservoir sections of Zeus. These bright events are regarded as
possible amplitude-related hydrocarbon indicators that are the same sands and similar to
amplitudes observed in the nearby Perseus Gasfield reservoir gas sands.
The participating interests in the Northwest Shelf permits are as follows:
Permit MEO
(Operator)
WA-359-P 60% meo 20% cue
WA-360-P 60% meo 20% cue
WA-361-P 60% meo 20% cue

I have been selling down CUE over the last while for investment in other stock...disc-cue,meo
:cool:
.^sc

yogi-in-oz

17-11-2007, 01:00 PM

:)

Hi folks,

CUE ... improved trading over the past few days, but still
under the longer averages right now and may see
more negativity around 27-28112007.

Should be looking good, from around 10122007 and
positively BOOMING, about 07-14 January 2008, with
news expected on 11012008.

have a great weekend

paul

:)

=====

jdg

17-11-2007, 04:10 PM

shrewdy you're selling CUE? good god, you'll be selling your mum next. is the love affair over?
-j

macduffy

04-12-2007, 11:49 AM

Singapore Petroleum (SPC) has increased its holding from 10.59% to 11.75%.

jdg

04-12-2007, 02:01 PM

Singapore Petroleum (SPC) has increased its holding from 10.59% to 11.75%.

for me, this is significant. they've moved beyond a blocking stake and just keep on buying. who knows what their intentions are but they are taking a lot of stock off the market and showing great confidence in the company. 2008 will be CUE's year.

whiteheron

04-12-2007, 02:15 PM

CUE is a typical company where wealth will be transferred from the impatient to the patient

The Todds and Singapore Petroleum know what they are about and are obviously taking the longer term view --- they will not be in the least concerned that the share price is struggling at present, they will be looking at the big picture that will emerge over the next year or so

A little patience will go a long way with CUE

jdg

21-12-2007, 01:08 PM

payment from the second shipment of Oyong due. Cobra drill being prepared. and the sp drops... this one has me baffled. still, i'm picking 2008 to be the year for CUE. smooth production at maari will see a very significant re-rating. income from 2008 just skyrockets.
-j

yogi-in-oz

22-12-2007, 06:04 PM

:)

Hi folks,

CUE ..... looking for Friday's strength to continue next week,
as two significant and positive time cycles come into play:

24122007 ... positive news expected here

27-28122007 ... minor and positive light on CUE

04012008 ... negative cycle ... finance-related(???)

07-14012008 ... strong rally expected here ... with significant
news, around 11-14012008 ... :)

25012008 ... minor cycle

29012008 ... minor and positive ... finances(???)

14-22032008 ... underlying negative cycle

25032008 ... positive spotlight on CUE ... :)

have a great weekend

paul

:)

=====

macduffy

21-01-2008, 12:31 PM

Didn't get the "strong rally 07-14012008 " but maybe the significant news is this morning's that SPC has increased its holding from 11.75% to 12.83%. ;)

yogi-in-oz

21-01-2008, 01:30 PM

:)

Hi Macduffy,

CUE ... it has been quite disappointing to see the price so flat,
right now ..... but, your observation about SPC is interesting,
as they already have a big stake in the Indonesian wells, so
their stake in CUE may well be a the forerunner to a formal
bid ..... around 25032008 ... ???

have a great day

paul

:)

=====

jdg

10-03-2008, 05:20 PM

well, i've made absolutely no money from CUE and that's fantastic.

why?

i've lost no money either, and in this market that's pretty good going in 2008.

it looks as though SPC have stopped buying yet the sp has not taken any hits and remains rooted in the low 20s. this bodes well, in my opinion, with maari coming on stream later this year - and that is surely certain to re-rate CUE, and if the current sp hold around these levels, that's big upside from here. incidentally, here are some notes from an HTM Wilson report done recently on the potential of maari. with thanks to mosaic1996 from another forum:

http://www.horizonoil.com.au/Press%20Relea...ilson%20HTM.pdf

a very encouraging read. i rode the wave of ppp incredibly well when tui came on stream, and foresee a similar situation here.

given this thread has gone quiet, i might be alone but i feel pretty comfortable with CUE in the current climate.

good luck to holders (if there are any).

-j

macduffy

10-03-2008, 06:03 PM

You're not on your own, jdg. I'm also encouraged by CUE's performance in this bear market and waiting for yogi's prediction to play out on or around 25 March! ;)
Meanwhile, I'm even happier about Maari prospects and the fact that there are two strong holders in SPC and Todd Petroleum.

:cool:

whiteheron

10-03-2008, 06:21 PM

I too hold CUE at an average entry price of a bit under 20c and propose to continue to hold as I consider that in the medium to long term CUE will see a considerable price increase

Oiler

10-03-2008, 06:59 PM

I too hold CUE at an average entry price of a bit under 20c and propose to continue to hold as I consider that in the medium to long term CUE will see a considerable price increase

Heron
I also hold CUE but will be patient. We havent seen a lot of volatility in this share as we have seen in many others. I am hangin in and bottom fishing for a few more ;)

Oiler

jdg

11-03-2008, 10:37 AM

i spoke too soon yesterday. SPC are still buying. they bought another 1.2% lifting their stake to 14%. that really is great news. obviously they share our confidence going forward.

-j

yogi-in-oz

17-03-2008, 02:19 PM

:)

Hi folks,

CUE ..... has been building a huge cup and handle pattern, since
the highs in early-2006. So, with 3 positive cycles coming into play
this week, we may get the trigger for a rally ..... :-)

Updated CUE chart, here:

http://forum.incrediblecharts.com/messages/8/cueupdate14032008-1458970.pdf

have a great week

paul

:)

=====

macduffy

17-03-2008, 03:12 PM

I don't know about cups and handles, but roll on the 25th March!

:)

Crypto Crude

08-04-2008, 08:29 PM

Check out this link... Thanking Chippie for the link on the NZO thread...
http://www.stuff.co.nz/4443018a1865.html
.....
....
...
..
.
Today MEO came out with a positive ann... it is drilling the Zeus prospect with CUE late this year in the 4th quarter...
I started this topic on 29/7/07, and said it would be 100% higher in one year...
One bagger in that timeframe maybe now an outside shot...
Maari first production has been put back from when I made this pick, the Company is better now than what it was 5 months ago...
I wish the market would see the value of this stock the way I and SPC do...:)... its future cashflows are easily worth more than twice the value of the company...
big gas Reserves...
Oil production from multiple projects...
on going exploration drilling...
Big time Maari...
great management, and Todds...
mammoth list Joint Venuture partners...
low downside big upside still stands...
little bit of cash, and a future set after many decades building to its current position of being a well diversified multi project, and producing oiler.....
may have to be patient.....
I will be buying back in real soon...
.....
:cool:
.^sc

macduffy

09-04-2008, 08:48 AM

Well, 25 March came and went but as SC points out, CUE's prospects are looking better than ever.
February newsletter makes the point that by the end of 2008, CUE should have 3 producing oil fields, at current oil prices providing operating revenue of around $A7m per month in the first half of 2009. This is about 3 times current receipts from production which was $A7.4m for the three months to 31Dec2007.
The market doesn't seem to value this stock but that is par for the course with smaller Aussie oilers at present. Perhaps this will change as Maari gets closer with first oil still expected in September.

Disc: Holding - and looking for more if price dips.

;)

jdg

09-04-2008, 02:54 PM

certainly SPC have supported the sp. i wonder when their buying will stop? if cobra comes in then the sp will obviously lift (you might get close to your 100%, shrude), but more likely we'll see it head north when maari gets closer. then, after that, we have gas revenues to look forward to. the next 12 months look very good for CUE.

-j

jdg

17-04-2008, 01:29 PM

good to see the sp nudging up in the last couple of days. turnover is right up too.

-j

yogi-in-oz

20-04-2008, 05:16 PM

Hi folks,

CUE ..... has been building a huge cup and handle pattern, since
the highs in early-2006. So, with 3 positive cycles coming into play
this week, we may get the trigger for a rally ..... :)

Updated CUE chart, here:

http://forum.incrediblecharts.com/messages/8/cueupdate14032008-1458970.pdf

have a great week

paul

=====

:)

Hi folks,

CUE ... has 2 positive cycles coming out to play this week,
which may be enough to give this one a lift ... :)

As posted above, the updated CUE chart, now shows the early stages
of an anticipated breakout, from an obvious cup and handle pattern:

http://forum.incrediblecharts.com/messages/8/cueupdate18042008-1534145.pdf

have a great weekend

paul

:)

yogi-in-oz

21-04-2008, 01:41 PM

:)

..... as expected, CUE is ticking up nicely, now ... !~!

happy days

paul

:)

=====

jdg

29-04-2008, 12:39 PM

looks like it getting some real traction of late. pleasing to see. as Maari gets closer, i'd think this action will only continue.
-j

jdg

05-05-2008, 02:54 PM

it's just slowly but surely climbing. 2008/9 will be CUE's years.
i'm hoping this rise has little to do with cobra. nice if it comes in but it is high risk. i'd like to think this rise is just in anticipation of the significant revenue increases in the coming 18 months or so - as the continuing shift from explorer to producer is complete and more revenue streams come on-line.
it's a good story this one.

-j

jdg

06-05-2008, 04:19 PM

and it keeps going today... i presume it will need a breather at some point, but it's looking strong.
you back in, shrewd? you always like this one. hope you're not missing the bus.

-j

Selena

06-05-2008, 05:19 PM

The market has reacted to push oil explorer Cue to A30cents. Is this a short term gain based on the current drilling or do the other activities and interests underpin this stock? So how correct is the concept of 100% play over 1 year. There is so much reading material in the recent quarterly report the challenge is getting it right. Not only are Todds key holders, but also the wily Geoff Albers who has been joined by smart former senior partner specialising in oil at Bell Gully James Willis. This is on my watch list

jdg

06-05-2008, 05:36 PM

yeah, just how much is speculation on cobra is difficult to assess. there's potentially a few speculators climbing on board. although i suspect people who are aware of the income coming on stream within the next 18 months or so (starting later this year with maari) are perhaps wanting to get in now just in case cobra does come in. but it's the upcoming revenue that is the prize for me. see page 7 & 8 of this presentation.

http://cuenrg.onlinepublicity.net/files/grabdoc.php?type=doc&id=451&cid=105

without hiccups, CUE is in for a serious rerating in the near(ish) future, regardless of what happens with cobra (which is a high risk prospect). SPC's big buy-up was a huge confidence booster, and indicates that the oyong area has a great deal of potential. i see this as a great story - and it's about to unfold.

-j

Crypto Crude

09-05-2008, 02:29 PM

Cobra spudded in Jan...
its at 1700m, final depth of 3100m...
This will be the longest well of all time to complete..:D...
at this rate it will take more than half a year to drill 3000m...
Selena,
The notion of CUE 100% play for one year has changed slightly with the hold up of Maari first production as NZO and its JV partners have been mucking around with the Rig...:D...
Sliding schedules is part of the oil industry...
... In my early posts I said one year and abit..
...
CUE has some bloody good JV partners, and largest list of impeckable JV partners that I know of...
CUE has big gas and oil reserves...
CUE is going to be a fully diversifed producing, and exploring, and developing company...
CUE has negotiated great JV deals over the last year, including drilling of Zeus, (northwest shelf, MEO deal, almost free carried for CUE, 4th quarter drill)...bass basin, Beach petroleum deal, free carried well, 2nd half of this year...
This is one of my favourite stocks...
I like this company more than OEL...
:cool:
.^sc

jdg

09-05-2008, 05:50 PM

yet you're not in, shrewd? if cobra is a dry hole (which is of course the most likely outcome) then we should see a retrace opportunity to jump on board, but if it strikes it will obviously fly. as i've said (and as you know) the upside from the known resources alone is very significant and should see a substantial rerating - any oil strikes in the short term would just be a bonus. i'm happy to sit on CUE for at least a year. in that time i expect to make plenty (more).
good luck with your timing, mate.

-j

jdg

15-05-2008, 04:00 PM

380m weekly progress toward target at cobra. if that rate continues we'll have results of a find in less than three weeks. not too bothered by it, but if there's a strike any where near the p50 estimates of 30-40m barrels... i think i'd be forced to have a drink or two.

-j

jdg

25-05-2008, 02:20 PM

after a couple of good weeks drilling, we are back to near stagnation (45m). this hole in the ground has proven rather troublesome. good things come to those who wait...?

-j

macduffy

25-05-2008, 03:12 PM

after a couple of good weeks drilling, we are back to near stagnation (45m). this hole in the ground has proven rather troublesome. good things come to those who wait...?

-j

And meanwhile, first production from Maari gets closer each day. The FPSO sailed from Wellington a couple of weeks ago.
Any news from our Taranaki posters?

:)

jdg

27-05-2008, 05:09 PM

was anyone at the conference who saw CUE's presentation? i have only read the presentation slides. although not new, the graphs showing oil and gas reserves coming this way from later this year are exciting. at least they are to me. obviously the market wasn't inspired much, unlike the case of some companies that presented. this worries me none, though. CUE’s time will come, and come soon. notwithstanding any start up problems, CUE is assured of a re-rating as these projects progress starting with maari next quarter – the revenue from them dwarfs CUE's modest market cap.

one issue to note is the drop off in oil from 2010 when SE Gobe, Oyong and Maari decline. however, these will be surplanted by gas revenues from Oyong and Wortel that kick in from 2010, the medium term future is very bright indeed.

moreover, given the exploration schedule, more drilling success is highly likely.

also, i note they give cobra a 17% chance of success. god knows how they come up with that figure, but given CUE has 10 percent of the drill, and it could contain 30-40m barrels, it would stunning if it came in – it would be a bigger find (for CUE) than maari. no great shakes if it doesn't (in some ways it's a distraction), but the sp would really move up on a strike there.

exciting times ahead with the different exploration drills, but i’d expect a steady sp increase as production from the various projects draws near and then, one by one, begin.

-j

ELYOB

29-05-2008, 05:42 PM

Keep an eye on MEO .....Big action here with CUE in Oct08 just NW of Woodside playground . Its in the lap of the gods. Ask about what Zeus can do for you........

The rest is chicken feed.

bermuda

29-05-2008, 06:14 PM

jdg

03-06-2008, 09:29 PM

thanks again for that, bermuda.

well, we have speculated that CUE's sp may have been driven by speculation surrounding cobra. and, it seems, this was right. is the recent weakness those speculators getting out in case it's a duster? (and the basic law of probability suggest it will be). if that's the case, good on them. they've made a few bucks and it was a good strategy. i'm seeing this through until maari production at the least - probably through to first gas. by that time i am quite certain the sp will be very much higher than it is now regardless of exploration results. CUE has enough proven reserves in the ground to take it a long way up from here. from maari production alone, i see a similar drive to what PPP went through before Tui, but I’m picking CUE’s will be greater (PPP was purely a Tui play, so it has fizzed a little since). also, there is oil above maari (M2A sands) and oil and gas below (mangahewa formation), so a reserve upgrade from that development is most likely with very little extra cost. then we have gas from oyong and then after that wortel. this is another stock i feel very comfortable holding. i see very little downside risk and exciting upside potential.

-j

jdg

05-06-2008, 05:49 PM

Cobra:

"Progress for the week was 558 metres. The secondary Hedinia has been penetrated and elevated gas readings have been recorded"

too early to say what this might mean, but certainly it's encouraging.

-j

jdg

05-06-2008, 05:59 PM

..in saying that, only 150m to target depth and no oil shows. at least we should know what the story is come monday.

ELYOB

08-06-2008, 01:22 AM

They are just above the main interest in the well ...

Making good time in the drilling by the looks .

This area is very prospective and we have a best chance by the limited info of having a result . It looks better than indicated . Results of close near wells bode well here .

jdg

16-06-2008, 11:01 AM

from the sydney morning sun herald - with thanks to patpat on another forum

Among brokers, Oil Search is the standout stock with nine buy recommendations, compared with three for Woodside (nine say it's a hold or sell) and seven for Australian Worldwide Exploration.

And that's more because of its huge reserves in Papua New Guinea of gas, an alternative to oil.

Well-regarded middle-sized oil explorers include Roc Oil with seven out of nine brokers covering the stock calling it a buy and the other two a hold; and Beach Petroleum which also has extensive gas interests and has six buys out of six broker recommendations. Although the oil price has become a speculative bubble, the same can't be said for speculative stocks.

The prices of many of the smaller oil explorers have barely budged from a year ago.

Partly because the bigger producers are such a sure thing that there's no need to take extra risk in a volatile sharemarket to start with, analysts tend to give the oil speculators short shrift.

There's also a bit of science and a lot of luck involved.

"You have to look at the fundamentals such as their drilling prospects and the size of their reserves," said Valibhoy.

Still, two stocks that he says pass the test are Cue Energy and New Zealand Oil and Gas which have already started drilling.

ELYOB

04-07-2008, 11:31 PM

tricha

05-07-2008, 04:55 PM

I think it maybe time we all discussed this stock as it is going to be activated in 4 weeks . I want info on Singapore Petroleum if anyone knows ???????????????????????????????

What effect can we have from the Maari development ?

And Zeus , what part are the gods going to play .... MEO has certainly done its bit . CUE announcement today on Zeus comfirms everything .

One analyst says that 3P reserves are undervalued big time ..... I would like someone to do the number crunch on this oiler please...

My friend Paul has done a valuation on them and now they are back to 22.5 cents, they are trading at nearly a 100% discount on his numbers.

So yes I added them to my oil stocks, when this claytons bubble unfolds :D

ELYOB

06-07-2008, 12:50 PM

I just wonder if Singapore Petroleum are setting themselves up for the ZEUS area play . I have read up on Singapore Petroleum and they are certainly a big outfit to match a Zeus play . They are hungry for new upstream plays and have just been so buddy buddy with CNOOC [Chinese giant oiler] recently ..... Singapore were buying CUE back awhile and may now be soaking p cheap script before they are exposed by reporting requirements . CUE is just undervalued so much with the Zeus in the background , we may see a sudden rush for it in the next 14 days ..........Maari is 4 weeks away ?????

tim23

06-07-2008, 02:12 PM

macduffy

06-07-2008, 02:17 PM

I've been quietly adding to my CUE holding, largely on the strength of Maari progress, SPC's gradually increased stake, Todd's big cornerstone shareholding and now the Zeus news. We may be pleasantly surprised by the revenue figures in the upcoming half year report too, given the way Tapis has moved in the last six months. Back in February, the company was expecting about AUD3m per month from Oyong at then current prices. Total production revenue for the company for the 6 mths to 31December 2007, including gas, was AUD12.3m.

;)

tricha

06-07-2008, 03:40 PM

My friend Paul has done a valuation on them and now they are back to 22.5 cents, they are trading at nearly a 100% discount on his numbers.

So yes I added them to my oil stocks, when this claytons bubble unfolds

Gee his number on them must be huge, like $2 +?

Close to a 100% on 22.5 cents , his valuation 38.5 cents

$2.00 would be rather nice, but I'd settle for 38 cents.

Macduffy - "Back in February, the company was expecting about AUD3m per month from Oyong at then current prices."

Brent Crude Oil $US/barrel

http://nz.f961.mail.yahoo.com/ya/download/nz/ShowLetter?box=Inbox&MsgId=6975_11448262_8002_1834_301241_0_14472_50811 0_1969731645&bodyPart=6&YY=29079&y5beta=yes&y5beta=yes&order=down&sort=date&pos=0&view=a&head=b&Idx=12

Cash cows in this market will be king!

tim23

06-07-2008, 03:49 PM

So thats about 50% discount but thats still decent!

Crypto Crude

06-07-2008, 03:49 PM

tricha-My friend Paul has done a valuation on them and now they are back to 22.5 cents, they are trading at nearly a 100% discount on his numbers.

Tricha,
your friend Paul.... is that Yogi...?...
I totally agree with what you are saying about CUE... Im looking to get back in...
This stock has everything, production, development, exploration, and appraisal... Ive been doing lots of research on Maari, I will post something in the next few days... Maari has 100% upside to reserves, and oil price is 50% higher...
CUE will re-rate exactly like NZO, but this re-rate will be bigger and we may have to be patient... 1st production is months away...
:cool:
.^sc

jdg

06-07-2008, 04:01 PM

it seems to me like the CUE sp has been knocked back on the drilling problems at cobra and the strong probability that it will be a duster. but as i've stated in the past, exploration success would great (and necessary to maintain revenue streams in the mid to long term) but CUE has current reserves coming on stream in the next wee while that easily justify 'my friend paul's' valuation. maari will be the spark that sets the sp running (and we haven't too long to wait). with no delays or start-up problems, there is a bundle to be made on this one in coming months.

-j

Corporate

06-07-2008, 04:06 PM

Tricha,
your friend Paul.... is that Yogi...?...
I totally agree with what you are saying about CUE... Im looking to get back in...
This stock has everything, production, development, exploration, and appraisal... Ive been doing lots of research on Maari, I will post something in the next few days... Maari has 100% upside to reserves, and oil price is 50% higher...
CUE will re-rate exactly like NZO, but this re-rate will be bigger and we may have to be patient... 1st production is months away...
:cool:
.^sc

Wow. Looks like CUE is getting a bit of attention from ST. I've also been having a bit of a peak.

Look forward to your views in the next few days SC.

Financially dependant

07-07-2008, 01:17 PM

I got in to CUE this morning (sold some RPM), exciting near and long term news.

IMO production is going to be very important part of 2008/9, oilers with production should see better share price lift!

ELYOB

07-07-2008, 02:42 PM

CUE are expecting to produce 900,000 bbloe in 2009 , and theres the gas starting up strongly in the period is on top of this .

jdg

07-07-2008, 04:10 PM

has a timeframe been set for drilling zeus? i can't seem to find one, but that doesn't mean it isn't there... thanks if anyone knows.

-j

macduffy

07-07-2008, 04:17 PM

has a timeframe been set for drilling zeus? i can't seem to find one, but that doesn't mean it isn't there... thanks if anyone knows.

-j

Announcement of 4 July said October, 2008.

;)

jdg

07-07-2008, 04:20 PM

cheers, macduffy. if you could now find my keys, that would be great...

Crypto Crude

13-07-2008, 07:20 PM

Maari First Oil - September
Largest Undeveloped Oil Field in New Zealand
The Main Maari Structure is anticline and Holds three Zones of Interest...
Moki, M2A formation, and Kapuni formation (mangahewa)...
Only The Moki Formation will be produced at first which Holds P50 recoverable oil volumes of 45-50Million... Only the Moki Formation makes up current field reserves... with 140 Million barrels in place in that formation...
Banking requirements usually require P90, and P90 is 34million barrels in Moki formation (90% probability of being produced).....
1P ->34million barrels... 2P ->50million barrels.... 3P -> ?...
recoverable oil will increase as Oil prices have increased, making P90 higher...... In the main field the upside to 50million barrels recoverable comes from the M2A formation... This zone is above the Moki Formation, further appraisal will take place during development drilling of the main zone... Upside is interpretted to be 12 million barrels recoverable in the M2A formation.... Infact Maari-2 well, intrepreted a 25 meter oil bearing sand column in the M2A formation, with mobile oil of 17m....

small summary of wells drilled...
1970- Maui-4 (manaia prospect) 40 meter Live Oil column, flowed 575 BOPD, drilled in wrong location... I will come back to this shortly...
1983- Moki-1... 40 meter live Oil column, flowing 660 BOPD over upper 10m interval..
1985- Moki-2a drilled on structure edge, which resulted in small column of 6meters...
1998- Maari-1 hit 54 meter vertical oil column, drilled to total depth through Kapuni...Was then plugged back and side tracked through Moki formation (maari-1a), Horizontal drilling length of 654 meters with 563 Oil bearing, This flow tested at 4350 BOPD...
1000 meter horizontal section is thought to flow initially at 5000 BOPD...
2003- Maari-2 (1.2 KM south of Maari-1).... Appraisal well... added 45million barrels (P50) to total barrels in place in the Moki Formation, hit 3 sand layers in M2A......

The Kapuni formation (mangahewa) has a 30meter oil column with an overlying gas cap... reports that I have read suggest this is uneconomical to extract... this was said when Oil prices were only $70US per barrel...?
The kapuni formation is much deeper... -> moki 1200M.... Kapuni -> just over 2100M....further testing will be required...

Manaia Prospect
10 KM South West Of the Main Field... Is not being developed yet, and is going to be appraised at some stage During the 5 development wells, and 3 water injection wells...Oh, The Water Injection wells are used to help maintain pressure to get higher flow rates, and to push the oil towards the producing well... this results in higher recoverable reserves...
OK manaia,
Is a very exciting prospect because the well that was drilled in 1970 (shell I think drilled it), was drilled off center, off crest and flowed at 575 BOPD only...
Horizon said-AVO and inversion work also suggests that reservior quality and/or hydrocarbon saturation may improve updip from Maui-4
two structures are being targeted, Mangahewa formation (kapuni), which hit the 40m plus oil column (no gas cap).... and the Moki formation which was drilled in a less optimal location... For example,
Oil rises and In an anticline structure Oil fills up high points... Imagine like an upside down ice cream cone where oil pushes to the tip of the cone...
The Maui-4 well was not drilled near the tip, it was drilled closer to the top of the cone.. (on the edge of the structure)...
Im sure of it that the top of the cone will be hit this time... Oil is there in place, its same stucture as Maari main field...
Recoverable resource of 25million barrels average, with up to over 100 million barrels potential in place...
very similar to the Main field apart from M2a Sands are not present in Manaia...
Currently we have a 50million barrel oil development with water injectors...
The crude quality has a high Wax content and has a small premium to the Brent Crude benchmark...
Using downhole electric heating and FPSO tank heating...
First production in september... Each development well will be connected to production after they hit the oil ....
Upside recoverable could be up to 100% more Oil in total...

100 million barrels of oil at a shot, but this will take further work, and all the dots will have to be connected.....
The Manaia prospect reserves, main field M2a, and Kapuni target has not yet been included in the main field development reserves and represent big upside...
Right now we can bank on 50M recoverable... I hope we can bank on 50 million more recoverable... its a wait and see...
...
At this stage I will wait for Cobra to be completed... Theres no major rush to get in...Cobra is likely to be plugged and abandoned, and I will get in that day...Will watch tomorrow as DOW was down....
OCT well ZEUS, free carried and one of the most highly anticipated offshore wells in Auzzie waters of this year...
CUE will get its re-rate just like NZO, and it will be bigger in percentage terms than NZO's... SP could very likely head lower (before it starts to run)...
I feel that Manaia is low risk increase to current reserves... This will perform...

Risks,
Cobra in the short term... DOW in the short term, medium term...
Weather delaying project...
unforeseen problems...
:cool:
.^sc

Crypto Crude

13-07-2008, 07:59 PM

Wow Malcolm....
You were selling CUE when I was Born...
...Manaia has been almost 40 years in the making... Maari has been 20 odd years in the making...
:cool:
.^sc

Financially dependant

13-07-2008, 08:43 PM

Thanks for the excellent round up SC:cool:, I bought a little early but might just hold through cobra and might top up on any bad news (recommended by O & G weekly too)!

AMR

13-07-2008, 10:31 PM

http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/picture.php?albumid=5&pictureid=27
I'm using a 13 day EMA to time my entry. Going to try and get in close above the 19.5c support. The long term uptrend is being tested right now, formed way back in Jan 07.

tricha

13-07-2008, 10:38 PM

yea and thier suspect melbourne lawyer founder has made millions out of di-k head share holders who trust him------ but he has managed to hold the company togetheir ---- anotheir tony radford but cue will never make 50 c again

Double Dutch if I ever heard it.:rolleyes:

Why are u buying if they are such a dog, with such management :confused:

tricha

13-07-2008, 10:41 PM

Thanks for the excellent round up SC:cool:, I bought a little early but might just hold through cobra and might top up on any bad news (recommended by O & G weekly too)!

Totally agree, great work Shrewdy :) , but maybe Cobra as a dud already factored in ?

Crypto Crude

14-07-2008, 12:00 AM

Oh man,
Im trying to upload this file to show that Maui-4 was drilled in the wrong location... I will try and get it on in the next few days... Im a real bunny with computers... you lot may just have to trust me on this one:)....

Tricha, its hard to know if Cobra is factored into SP or not... The current SP does suggest that an abandoned Well is factored in, but there will always be someone who will sell on the news...

malcolm-cue will never make 50 c again

HAHAHAHAHAHA

Theres a greater chance that CUE will hit $1 per share than CUE not hitting 50cents (eventually)... CUE's market cap is only 135 million dollars...
without market risk I would probably be prepared to bet the farm on this stock...
:cool:
.^sc

Crypto Crude

14-07-2008, 12:05 AM

Im real lucky that I managed to get away from this stock when I did...
its now at the same levels 6 months later...
Next few weeks im back in...
later...
:cool:
.^sc

bermuda

14-07-2008, 10:05 AM

About 18 months ago a couple of posters bet me a dozen good Aussie red each that Maari would flow before Tui.

Shrewdy, I think Cue will do okay but it would take a lot more persuasion to get me in at this time.

Far better to stick with the big growth in NZO.

Shrewdy,
Re the above, I hope you took my advice. Cue going forward, will do a lot better now , but for certainty, I would still stay with NZO.

Crypto Crude

14-07-2008, 01:25 PM

Bermuda,
I can accept that you would rather stay with NZO... we both know that NZO is a very good stock... Malcolm sounds just like it did on the NZO thread last year... its all about sentiment, and we easily spotted it before it changed..... We all know CUE will have its turn to re-rate just like NZO did... And CUE will perform bigger in percentage terms going off current market information...
CUE has multiple developments, and manaia is screaming for a tie in to the main development of Maari...
:cool:
.^sc

tricha

14-07-2008, 07:17 PM

Cue Energy Resources Limited

A.B.N. 45 066 383 971

RELEASE

Update on Cobra -1A Well

Cue Energy Resources Limited reports that PPL190 participants have decided to
sidetrack the Cobra -1A well. As at 0600 on 14th July 2008, operations have been
completed on Cobra -1A well and activity has commenced to drill the Cobra -1AST1.
The BOP test had been completed and preparations were underway to RIH and kick-off
the sidetrack.
Since the last release the operator Oil Search has successfully recovered the wireline
logging tool and completed logging operations to the well total depth of 3202m. The
deeper Iagifu Sandstone is interpreted to be water-bearing.
Interpretation of the log data has indicated that the shallower Hedinia Sandstone may
contain a significant hydrocarbon column. Due to suspected formation damage, it was
not possible to obtain reliable pressure measurements in the potential reservoir interval
to confirm this interpretation. It was therefore decided to drill a short sidetrack to obtain a
fresh hole through the Hedinia Sandstone and undertake further evaluation.
Cobra -1A is located in PPL 190 and lies 13 kilometres east of the SE Gobe oil field and
7 kilometres east of the Bilip oil discovery.
The participants in PPL 190 are:
Oil Search Limited (Operator) 62.556%
Murray Petroleum Company 26.497%
Cue PNG Oil Company 10.947%
Any queries regarding the announcement should be directed to the Company on
(03) 9670 8668 or email mail@cuenrg.com.au.

Robert J Coppin
Chief Executive Officer 14th July 2008

jdg

15-07-2008, 09:47 AM

whoa, this has been a very problematic drill, but a 'significant' column is encouraging. i'd given up on cobra. safe to say my interest has been reignited. it will be most interesting to see what comes of this. it will also be interesting to see what the market thinks of it today.

-j

Crypto Crude

15-07-2008, 11:00 PM

In at 21cents today on a patient bid....

Last night I read one thing in particular that made me get back in, aswell as the Cobra update...

(in reference on Technical analysis)....
It can help sometimes but all the good stocks I own make a mockery of it. I am very wary of it and that's why I could never bring myself to study it. Studying it confuses you. Far better to look at long term fundamentals. imho

I thought bugger it...this is one of those good stocks... Im not worried about Cobra backlash, its the long term fundamentals, and suddenly things have gotten much better...
...
In the 'conventional' oil Market, this is the best stock valued around $140 million dollars... I saw a valuation the other night that had 2009 Net profit after tax of 54 Million AUS conservative...
Throw exploration portfolio out the window...
Zeus worth 20 million to CUE right now for the free carry... ignore BPT...
Ignore CUES JV partners..... dont worry about exploration portfolio, PNG Indo... etc.... its all about Maari...
....
when they re-drill Manaia 600-800 meters to the North East, it is going to spew Oil... it was drilled in the wrong location....50cents next year a sure thing bar Market meltdown...
I wont say anything about Zeus well or BPT free carry, its all about Maari and manaia...
This Time I wont sell...
peace out...
:cool:
.^sc

Crypto Crude

16-07-2008, 05:04 PM

tricha

16-07-2008, 06:09 PM

New announcement out from MEO...
CUE touched 22.5cents on ok turnover...
Bot trader working the dance floor...
-->Looking for fireworks, so far a few sparklers only...
We talked about someone lending me a few hundie million when NZO was $1.00-$1.20...
Can someone lend me $150million dollars...? haha...
Thats how good I feel about this... We are Going to have to be patient...
Im hoping for Cobra P and A, so I can get more...
:cool:
.^sc

So whats the go with Cobra, the real deal Shrewd ?, I bought another 50,000 more shares at 21.5 cents.

I see one of the big mining gold companies in Canada are buying an oil company, as the oil price is killing them.

Interpretation of the log data has indicated that the shallower Hedinia Sandstone may
contain a significant hydrocarbon column.

Crypto Crude

20-07-2008, 02:17 PM

Hey tricha,
I got back in based on fundamentals, I got Cobra as a free bonus...
Ensoc will be handed over to the maari JV, and The fallout from Cobra will be minimal to nothing (from 21c anyway)...
The chance of success for Cobra was originally 17%...
That chance has now increased based on New information which is pretty vague in detail due to formation damage and therefore not much info, including pressure testing...All we have been told is

-aA hydrocarbon column is indicated as being present in the Hedinia Sandstone objective, and may contain a significant hydrocarbon column
Cobra is on trend with a whole fairway of oil and gas discoveries including Kubutu, Moran, Angore etc... Cobra was aimed at the same prinicpal reservior in Gobe, SE gobe (CUE), Bilip, which is the Lagifu sandstone...
What is most exciting is the JV believe there is a big hydrocarbon column in the Hedinia sandstone...this Sandstone layer is interpretted to be larger than the Lagifu sandstone...
At this stage, Cobra is a wait and see...
I'll put some more info up shortly, Im getting more CUE this week...
:cool:
.^sc

Crypto Crude

20-07-2008, 02:38 PM

CUE have some amazing gas assets in PNG of Kimu and Barikewa...
heres abit of background information- Kimu, current 2P reserves are .85 TCF, drilled in 1998-1999 by OSH, and intersected 30m gross gas column

Barikewa,
reserves
1p, 150 BCF
2p, 720 BCF
3p, 1500 BCF

cue holds 14.8%... current CUE SP suggests that market has not even factored in Kimu or Barikewa, infact suggests that market is not aware of this, or factors this is as some sort of liability to the company :D....
I read from OSH announcements that Barikewa holds significant 3P upside on 1500 BCF... Read OSH announcements and presentations, this company holds the future for CUE... Barikewa and Kimu are massive and Appraisal drilling will occur on Barikewa mid way through next year...
Manaia appraisal drilling late 1st quarter/early 2nd quarter...
and two Sampang PSC wells in the 3rd quarter...
aswell as Oyong first gas production in the third quarter, Maari full production in the 1st quarter... 2009 is going to be a big year...
Two free carries on Zeus and Spikey beach 4th quarter 2008, and big upside on Cobra results...
This is the mother of all stocks...
Ive thought about going 'all in' on it

My suggestion of CUE 45cents by Dec 09 is very conservative...

There is a new presentation out on the new CUE webpage at CUENRG.com...
go check it out...
:cool:
.^sc

tim23

20-07-2008, 05:41 PM

SC - 4/5 posts on Cue topic is that ramping?! I used to own a few about 10 years ago but got impatient, you really like the story?

corporateraider

20-07-2008, 05:54 PM

Yeah its ramping. But leave Shrewdy alone. I rode NZOG options all the way up to 30 cents helped in no small part by his tireless efforts.

There is a good story here atested to by the fact that a major stakeholder has been a buyer at around current levels. The company produced a valuation last year of 40 cents when oil and gas were considerably cheaper.

I think that this will be like NZOG. There will be a re-rating when the market sees oil flowing.

Disc: hold a few

tricha

20-07-2008, 07:09 PM

WITH POOR CASH FLOW -HIGH EXPENDITURE- lower oil price, no oil from MAARI TO OCT/NOV WHEN OIL WILL BE BELOWUS$120 P/B THEY MISSED THE BOAT IN TARANAKI nothings changed with this comp in23yrs never will make au5oc

Really Malcolm, then why are u down ramping and also clearly stated that u will be buying below 20 cents.:rolleyes:

tim23

20-07-2008, 07:28 PM

tricha

20-07-2008, 07:50 PM

Giood point Tricha because they may not ever get to sub 20c again, sometimes you decide to buy a stock and simply pay the price after all when you buy at say 22c or 19c you are still expecting them to be 30c iplus in time.

Exactly Tim23, sounds like he is down ramping them, just so he can buy cheap.
Hey Malcolm what do u value CUE at ??? , u stated u will buy <20 cents, so you must have a valued target in mind.

Crypto Crude

20-07-2008, 08:48 PM

You will very very rarely find me neutral on any stock... I am always clearly an upwards ramper or a downwards ramper...
It makes sense, stocks go up or stocks go down...
I dont fence sit...
Malcolm and Tim, I understand that you too have had an experience with CUE before...
having a bad experience is enough to blind anyone in on the future performance of that stock...
Ive held CUE many times but I managed to sell when I had to so I could re-enter as I thought CUE might go sideways for awhile (and it had)... this time will be different
Ive been called all sorts... I would not expect anything less...
I will post tomorrow when I pick up some more... thankyou...
:)
.^sc

ELYOB

21-07-2008, 03:03 AM

tricha

21-07-2008, 08:36 AM

Here we know of two quiet players in the background , maybe three . And I hear they may want to increase their positions in the future . But we are only 4 months away from the Zeus . Now after the Palmer deals , it is obvious that any new players are going to go for CUE as it is so undervalued and cashed up , and over $4m gross earnt per month . The Quarterly due out is likely to give the latest insight in the game to give these characters the urge to get on with it .

So keep up/down ramping and ignore the pending game and get caught on the outside when they all have a go ....who knows Zeus could drive CUE to 50c predrilling on its own . Zeus could be worth 3-7 dollars ....it is huge and CUE has the rights to 20% Zeus is put at 2TCF plus much condensate rich light oil for the CUE share.

hold the cue

Sorry Malcolm the boats leaving and you will not be on board sub 20 cents,
pay u to read "Who moved my Cheese", an insight into CHANGE. It will cost u around $25 and take an hour or two to read. get your head out of the sand man, CUE is in the change mode, fundamentals are aligning for it become a cash cow :p

CUE has changed, just like NZO who changed and I was lucky to spot the change ( actually Bermuda gave me the insight to it) and I bought my 1st at the bargin price of $1.01 and they paid a nice 5 cent fully imputed div to boot.

01/02/2008Buy 10000 NZO ASX $1.01 Order Traded

Crypto Crude

21-07-2008, 04:29 PM

Bought more CUE today...
New average-21.8cents..
:cool:
.^sc

tim23

21-07-2008, 06:15 PM

Good on you SC a man of your word!

AMR

21-07-2008, 06:27 PM

Just double-checking, you fellows do mean 2TCF? It wasn't a typo? Kinda makes those CSG babies look like they have small tenements.

Crypto Crude

21-07-2008, 07:09 PM

AMR,
there is no mistake... Zeus is perhaps the most exciting well to be drilled in Auzzie waters this year and CUE is free carried for a 15% stake, with a choice of increasing that stake to 20% by funding 5% of the well....
MEO's mapping indicates that the Zeus prospect has the potential to contain gas reserves in excess of 10 Tcf...
Songa Venus has been contracted to drill Zeus-1 Late October...
MEO fully funded the 3d Seismic campaign, and bright amplitude anomolies are the same in the Perseus gas discovery...

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=MEO&E=ASX&N=301792

CUE has big upside based on Developing projects...
This may have to be a patient wait over the next month... but I make no bones about where this is headed...
thank you...

Crypto Crude

21-07-2008, 07:13 PM

malcolm,
pity you dont disclose what you do, when you do it...
:cool:
.^sc

Crypto Crude

21-07-2008, 07:27 PM

hey malcolm,

MERY XMAS
And a happy new year...
;)
.^sc

Crypto Crude

21-07-2008, 07:30 PM

Calling me a con man is nasty though...

every single thing I say, or have ever said (apart from opinions based) can be found on the Web, through a Google search, or in company records...
:cool:
.^sc

tricha

21-07-2008, 07:54 PM

interesting shrewd CONMAN OR -----------TRUTH SHORT TERM WILL PROVE WHOS RIGHT

sold out 20 yrs ago(MID EIGHTYS) 60c plus --considered buying in 10 days ago order did not get touched cancelled will wait for share market CRASH in next few weeks and pick some up for SUB 20C

Last edited by malcolm; 13-07-2008 at 07:50 PM.

Arr come on Mal, who's the conman, down ramping them to buy them cheap, well for your information, what is said on this site regarding the ASX, I suspect they do not have any effect on the overall ASX market.

So just be honest, why are u going to buy them if they are dog ?????

bermuda

21-07-2008, 09:16 PM

Calling me a con man is nasty though...

every single thing I say, or have ever said (apart from opinions based) can be found on the Web, through a Google search, or in company records...
:cool:
.^sc

I support that Shrewdy.

You are an inspiration to the site and to Sharetrader.
Keep up the good work.

Crypto Crude

23-07-2008, 04:58 PM

"Bot trader" Malcolm is back
Haha... is that you with the cheeky orders malcolm...?
Ensoc news and Cobra news should be just around the corner...
:cool:
.^sc

Corporate

26-07-2008, 04:51 PM

can some with some TA skills provide some analysis of a time to buy into CUE. I have very limited skills but looking at the 1 year chart it looks like CUE has been in an uptrend for that period

tim23

26-07-2008, 05:28 PM

Just buy it if you believe in the story; if they have some good finds etc the share price will take care of itself the chart probably won't tell you when they are going to find more oil?

zacman

26-07-2008, 05:49 PM

Agreed. What happened in the past year means very little. What will happen in the next year means a lot.

Read the last report. The potential for this company and the level of possible and probable reserves is mouthwatering.

zacman

tim23

26-07-2008, 06:14 PM

Thanks Zacman - I was expecting a good old bagging from a charter!

tricha

26-07-2008, 08:10 PM

Thanks Zacman - I was expecting a good old bagging from a charter!

Go outside and have a look at the clouds ;)

corporateraider

26-07-2008, 09:12 PM

Go outside and have a look at the clouds ;)

Or if some Akld university student does arrest Condeleeza get them to ask whether she is going to bomb the crap out of somewhere?

Phaedrus

27-07-2008, 12:34 PM

Can someone provide some TA analysis of a time to buy into CUE....
Tricha's reply? :- "Go outside and have a look at the clouds".

What a silly, ignorant comment. Tricha, surely you are aware that with knowledge and experience it is possible to make useful weather forecasts based on cloud observation alone. It's exactly the same with charts. Patterns repeat themselves and give valuable indications as to likely future price movement. For example, "Double Tops" (as marked here with blue circles) are a Bearish formation. You can see that in every case, these were followed by significant falls (15% - 30%) in the shareprice.

Shephejame wanted an opinion on when to buy. Tim23's silly response? :- "Just buy it if you believe in the story". Just buy! When doesn't matter! Just believe in the story! What a mug you would have been to buy when CUE broke below previous support (red arrow). What a fool you would have been to have bought while CUE was in its long downtrend. What a mistake it would have been to have bought CUE just after it had formed a double top. Those buying when CUE was well above its trendline made a poorly timed entry.

Zacman thinks "What happened in the past means very little". Nonsense. We can learn a lot from the past. We can learn that "double tops" are a Bearish pattern, for example!

NONE of the advice from you lot is of any help at all to Stephejame. If you guys knew a bit more about TA you would scoff at it less. Let's look at the chart. We can see that CUE was in an extended downtrend. The first "Buy" signal came when the On Balance Volume indicator broke above its long-term trendline (red line). This is not surprising as OBV is often a "leading" indicator. Next to trigger was when price action broke above its long-term trendline (big green arrow). Note that technically, CUE was still in a downtrend at this time. The downtrend was ended by a subsequent uptrend when CUE made a higher high after a higher low as marked by the small green arrow. These signals marked the best time for Stephejame to enter CUE but maybe he wasn't in the market at that time. So, now when should he buy?

CUE has been in an uptrend for over a year, so far. There is a confirmed trendline in place as marked by the green line. The safest place to buy CUE is at or near this trendline - like right now. We can do better than that though. I have drawn a tentative short-term trendline (magenta) and the logical thing for Stephejame to do is wait - and buy if/when CUE breaks above this trendline.

In practice, this would probably give him exactly the same entry point as that proposed by UnderDOG - I've used a trendline break instead of a break above previous resistance as the trigger, that's all. Better yet, why not wait until both criteria are met!

http://h1.ripway.com/Phaedrus/CUE727.gif

Corporate

27-07-2008, 01:21 PM

Tricha's reply? :- "Go outside and have a look at the clouds".

What a silly, ignorant comment. Tricha, surely you are aware that with knowledge and experience it is possible to make useful weather forecasts based on cloud observation alone. It's exactly the same with charts. Patterns repeat themselves and give valuable indications as to likely future price movement. For example, "Double Tops" (as marked here with blue circles) are a Bearish formation. You can see that in every case, these were followed by significant falls (15% - 30%) in the shareprice.

Shephejame wanted an opinion on when to buy. Tim23's silly response? :- "Just buy it if you believe in the story". Just buy! When doesn't matter! Just believe in the story! What a mug you would have been to buy when CUE broke below previous support (red arrow). What a fool you would have been to have bought while CUE was in its long downtrend. What a mistake it would have been to have bought CUE just after it had formed a double top. Those buying when CUE was well above its trendline made a poorly timed entry.

Zacman thinks "What happened in the past means very little". Nonsense. We can learn a lot from the past. We can learn that "double tops" are a Bearish pattern, for example!

NONE of the advice from you lot is of any help at all to Stephejame. If you guys knew a bit more about TA you would scoff at it less. Let's look at the chart. We can see that CUE was in an extended downtrend. The first "Buy" signal came when the On Balance Volume indicator broke above its long-term trendline (red line). This is not surprising as OBV is often a "leading" indicator. Next to trigger was when price action broke above its long-term trendline (big green arrow). Note that technically, CUE was still in a downtrend at this time. The downtrend was ended by a subsequent uptrend when CUE made a higher high after a higher low as marked by the small green arrow. These signals marked the best time for Stephejame to enter CUE but maybe he wasn't in the market at that time. So, now when should he buy?

CUE has been in an uptrend for over a year, so far. There is a confirmed trendline in place as marked by the green line. The safest place to buy CUE is at or near this trendline - like right now. We can do better than that though. I have drawn a tentative short-term trendline (magenta) and the logical thing for Stephejame to do is wait - and buy if/when CUE breaks above this trendline.

In practice, this would probably give him exactly the same entry point as that proposed by UnderDOG - I've used a trendline break instead of a break above previous resistance as the trigger, that's all. Better yet, why not wait until both criteria are met!

http://h1.ripway.com/Phaedrus/CUE727.gif

Phaedrus, what can I say except that your post is probably the best reply I have had to question during my time at ST. It is also very assuring that I came to the same conclusion in relations to buying when the SP breaks the Magenta line.

Many thanks for the time you put into the post.

dumbass

27-07-2008, 01:34 PM

nice Mr P , but dont forget you need ignorance to make markets

tim23

27-07-2008, 02:22 PM

CUE has been in an uptrend for over a year, so far. There is a confirmed trendline in place as marked by the green line. The safest place to buy CUE is at or near this trendline - like right now. We can do better than that though. I have drawn a tentative short-term trendline (magenta) and the logical thing for Stephejame to do is wait - and buy if/when CUE breaks above this trendline.

My silly response - you are telling him to buy just like I did ren't you?

Personally I do find your charts interesting but I prefer to buy the story and be patient.

Phaedrus

27-07-2008, 02:32 PM

You are telling him to buy just like I did, aren't you.

No.

I'm telling him NOT to buy.

I'm telling him that if he wants to buy, to WAIT.

Crypto Crude

27-07-2008, 03:16 PM

Phaedrus, thank you for your post...
...

CUE has been in an uptrend for over a year, so far. There is a confirmed trendline in place as marked by the green line. The safest place to buy CUE is at or near this trendline - like right now. We can do better than that though. I have drawn a tentative short-term trendline (magenta) and the logical thing for Stephejame to do is wait - and buy if/when CUE breaks above this trendline.

I get the feeling that your saying, this is a good time, 'But'...
reading your last post makes this less clear...

So Lets get this straight...
Your signal to buy is when CUE is "at or near the trendline"
Well CUE is near the trendline!
and the other signal "wait for CUE to break above the trendline"
(both in 2nd last paragraph)...
By looking at your graph it appears that CUE is
aleady above the trendline...
Therefore satisfying both criteria...
and a buy signal confirmed...

Well, I was initially going to wait for Cobra drill to be completed... I Then thought bugger it based on fundamentals, IE little downside if Cobra turns bad, and big upside if it is good... If CUE announce 'a big hydrocarbon column' at Cobra, it wont just break above the trendline for confirmed buying (as mackdunk also said)... It will gap up to perhaps 30cents plus..... Charting can not predict the outcomes to Cue's exploration drilling over the next year...(zeus, spikey beach, appraisal drilling Manaia, appraisal drilling Bariweka, Cobra, two PSC wells... Infact, Manaia is lower end risk that TA has not factored anything in yet...
Charting does not predict drilling outcome...

I agree with Zac... "what happened in the past means very little"... Bar huge market risk (DOW 1000 point fall), and Bar unforeseen risks such as Maari production problems etc... We are looking at a share worth 45 cents next year off current market information, thats without any of the exploration, appraisal drilling program proving to be a success... Surely one will hit, Bariweka will....!.... um... Manaia will too.... Perhaps add in Zeus... ka boom... already low downside, (downside is 40cents)... what could upside be... haha...
If you think about it like that, it does not really matter if you buy at 22cents or you buy at 19.5cents, or buying at a confirmed TA of 26cents (or whatever it is)...
If CUE is trending to 45cents on the downside then who cares if you bought at 15c or 25c...

If your not comfortable with the technicals and want a confirmed breakout then so be it... if you want to buy on the trendline, or at rock bottom then so be it, (take your chances)... the big picture is the same... from a fundamental perspective past performance means little to CUE... CUE is about to embark on a new period of growth through a growing production profile, as its developing projects move the company away from spec status to a path of revenues....
The 20 years (and more) it took to get to this point does not mean anything anymore...
the new CUE about to start unfolding, forget about historics - I therefore dont give a stuff about the old CUE... infact never have...

CUE will unfold exactly like NZO did.... I took my chances that I could outperform NZO's run from around a year ago, and I have....( I didnot quite think the leverage was there- remember I am young and a risk taker)....
CUE has a very very similar sort of story unfolding with mulitple developments going into production, and only a few of us really called NZO.... Cue is one step behind NZO, ramping up off a lower SP... and I believe the SP percentage return for CUE Will be larger than the Percentage return for NZO when comparing their two major Projects Maari vs Tui...
yes TUI will outperfrom Maari, not in percentage returns... Maari has 100% upside to reserves...

If you look at the fundamentals, CUE is a buy at any time...
If you look at technicals then CUE must pass certain criteria for it to be a buy...
Mackdunk said to buy CUE at 25cents (30 day moving average)... I, thought bugger that and started buying at 21c, topped up at 22.5 with a 21.8cent average...
If Cobra Fails I will buy more...

Over the short term you take your chances on Cobra either way... Charting will come back and tell us we were wrong if Cobra is a failure, What Charting should be telling us now, is THAT we should be buying NOW as Low down big up is favourable, and even more so with the future production profile of this stock...

My only concern is markets could take everything away....
All stocks hold this risk... CUE has done well over the last year in the Rath of Market forces trying to pull this little stock apart with little success...
Great spec stock...

Whatever your strategy is--> in the end the outcome is the same...
Who cares, TA, FA... whatever...
Phaedrus, The green uptrending line is not steep enough on where this is headed...
:cool:
.^sc

Crypto Crude

27-07-2008, 03:21 PM

malcolm---- shrewdy-- how about some down ramping

I call it how I see it unfolding... I never lie...
I will leave the downramping to yourself...
You seem to be doing a good job...
Good day...
:cool:
.^sc

tim23

27-07-2008, 03:50 PM

Thanks Zacman - I was expecting a good old bagging from a charter!

Spoke too soon - I did get a bagging for my trouble. I'm with you Shrewd, if you waited you might have to pay 25c so why not buy for less and besides if everyone waited for the perfect moment to invest then there would be few trades!

tricha

27-07-2008, 05:09 PM

Shrewd - "Charting can not predict the outcomes to Cue's exploration drilling over the next year...(zeus, spikey beach, appraisal drilling Manaia, appraisal drilling Bariweka, Cobra, two PSC wells... Infact, Manaia is lower end risk that TA has not factored anything in yet...
Charting does not predict drilling outcome..."

Thats the trouble with charting companies like CUE. No one can predict the drill bit. No one can predict when an institution will dump or buy shares. No one can predict 100 other curve balls that can change Cues outlook.

But the fundamentals look great and Cue is cheap.
Thanks for the fundamentals Shrewdy and doing the analysis. I have taken your cue.

Phaedrus

27-07-2008, 05:17 PM

"Your signal to buy is when CUE is "at or near the trendline" Well CUE is near the trendline! and the other signal "wait for CUE to break above the trendline"....By looking at your graph it appears that CUE is already above the trendline...Therefore satisfying both criteria...and a buy signal confirmed..."
Ah, Shrewdy, what we have here is an example of the power of wishful thinking! Read it again and take another look at the chart - more carefully this time. First trendline - Green. Second trendline - Magenta. Shephejame is waiting for the magenta trendline to be broken. It hasn't been broken yet.

"Charting does not predict drilling outcome......"
Neither does ANYTHING else.

"If CUE is trending to 45cents..... then who cares where you bought...It does not really matter if you buy at 19.5cents, or.... 26cents..."
Yes it does! It is the difference between making 73% or 130%!

"If you look at the fundamentals, CUE is a buy at any time..."
Very true. That's why fundamentals are no good at timing entry or exit points.

"If you look at technicals then CUE must pass certain criteria for it to be a buy...Mackdunk said to buy CUE at 25cents (30 day moving average)...... "
If anyone mentions MacDunk's infamous 30 day Moving Average once more, I will scream. Anyone foolish enough to try actually using this "system" would come a spectacular gutser. Over the period of the chart, a 30 day MA would have triggered 49 trades - that's 43 losses and just 6 wins, equating with a capital loss of 90%. Needless to say, many of the entry points were signalled while CUE was in its long downtrend.

"What Charting should be telling us, is that we should be buying NOW ......."
Why? You have told that you think "CUE is a buy at any time..." so clearly TA is going to disagree with you for extended periods of time. Charting told you to buy at the beginning of 2007. You do realise that, right now, CUE is in a downtrend and has been for a couple of months? The next buy signal will come soon enough - just as soon as some simple criteria are met. The 2 month downtrend needs to reverse and/or the trendline needs to be broken. Discipline, man! You fundies are SO impatient!

"My only concern is markets could take everything away....All stocks hold this risk..."
Dead right. So, what can you do about that? Answer - have an exit strategy. TA could help you there!

"Whatever your strategy is--> in the end the outcome is the same..."
No it is not!!!!!! It will vary tremendously depending on your entry and exit strategies.

"Phaedrus, The green uptrending line is not steep enough on where this is headed..."
That's only your opinion. The trendline is showing us where CUE is heading - and how fast. If/when the uptrend accelerates it will show us that too. What you see here is the reality of the situation. What IS - not what you might predict or like to see.

Tim23 :- "I spoke too soon - I did get a bagging for my trouble."
Huh? For your trouble? Posting a single sentence throwaway line? Buddy, I am the one who went to some trouble here - it takes quite a bit of time and effort to put together a post like that. Besides, you deserved bagging for advising Shephejame to "Just buy it if you believe in the story". Where is the rational argument or logic in a statement like that?

macduffy

27-07-2008, 05:40 PM

Thanks, Phaedrus and Shrewd Crude for your respective takes on CUE.
I'm a holder and keen to buy more but think I'll wait for a clearer signal!

;)

pietrade

27-07-2008, 05:41 PM

I really appreciate BOTH Phaedrus AND Shrewd Crude for their comments and valuable insights. Talk about 'head' and 'heart' . Great balancing act you guys and many thanks to you both for your postings. I'm learning heaps.

zacman

27-07-2008, 05:58 PM

Quote: " Zacman thinks "What happened in the past means very little". Nonsense. We can learn a lot from the past. We can learn that "double tops" are a Bearish pattern, for example! "

So often your charts appear over subjective. You refer to 4 double tops. (to me there appears to be many similar patterns ). Trouble is each of your double tops was followed by a higher double top. When does bearish become bullish ?

The future direction of CUEs share price will not be determined by consideration of your charts. The future direction will be determined by what they find in or extract from the ground.

To consider buying this share you need to consider the possibilities of what their exploration and development will lead to.

zacman

Crypto Crude

27-07-2008, 06:23 PM

mackdunnk-SHREWDY, Speaking from a pure TA point of view CUE is not a buy until it crosses 25c. Never buy anything ever trading below the 30 day moving average is my golden rule. Three years ago the sp was 20c today its 24c which is hardly a great return in that then bull market. The sp is in a steep downtrend with a dead cat bounce of 1c today hardly a flaming match to light a rocket. If i bought it would be at 26c with a bit of fundamental analysis to back my TA entrentals. Market perception is more important than company fundamentals in a downtrending market. Macdunk

This is what Mackdunk told me..

shrewdy- CUE is trending to 45cents..... then who cares where you bought...It does not really matter if you buy at 19.5cents, or.... 26cents..."

phaedrus said- Yes it does! It is the difference between making 73% or 130%!

throw the mackdunk buy signal out the window then... I agree, big difference in performance, thats why you should buy now!... dont wait for the signals...
Absolute Advance just put a post up but then pulled it, with a confirmed signal of 29cents...
Phaedrus said wait for the two signals (which could be many different prices)...
mackdunk said 25cents, but he would choose 26cents...

I will let the Technical analysts sort out at what price Cue should be bought....

get back to me once you have sorted it out...
nobody can argue with the fundy-mentals...
So excited...Ive thought about going 'all in' on CUE...
Ive only gone all in 3 times before...
Its looking that bloooody good.....
:cool:
.^sc

Jess9

27-07-2008, 06:25 PM

"If CUE is trending to 45cents..... then who cares where you bought...It does not really matter if you buy at 19.5cents, or.... 26cents..."
Yes it does! It is the difference between making 73% or 130%!

"If you look at the fundamentals, CUE is a buy at any time..."
Very true. That's why fundamentals are no good at timing entry or exit points.

Phaedrus, you're a very smart cookie!

It's taken me awhile (and some dosh) to nut out what you note (above) and obviously practice. This advice is spot on to others still learning this particular discipline. I believe if (above) stuck to i.e. not caving to emotion this (plus a few other pearls, including the law of compounding returns ; ) defines a great/spectacular investor - in any market (bear, bull and anything in between). On market risk/timing... if you have a spare moment I would be very interested to hear your current thoughts on the Dow thread.

Thanks J9.

Jess9

27-07-2008, 06:27 PM

p.s. sorry 2 B slightly of topic.

Phaedrus

27-07-2008, 07:38 PM

So often your charts appear over subjective.
Maybe they appear that way to you because you are unaware of the strict definitions that underlie the features that I merely draw attention to. Trends, trendlines, indicators, formations such a double tops etc., are all objectively defined with little or no room for any subjectivity. No-one could legitimately draw that green trendline anywhere other than where it is, for example.

"Trouble is each of your double tops was followed by a higher double top". So what? ANY formation will be followed by other formations as time progresses. You want one double top to be the last one? Ever? The fact that each double top was followed by a higher double top simply means that the underlying uptrend remained intact. These short-term reversal signals were simply part of that uptrend..

"When does bearish become bullish?"
You mean how much of a fall can we expect after a double top? Well, Thomas Bulkowski in his excellent book "Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns" found that the average decline after a double top was 20%. The falls after the double tops circled on the chart were 21%, 15%, 20%, and 30%. That's an average of 21.5%. Good enough for you?

"The future direction (of CUE) will be determined by what they find in or extract from the ground."
Wrong. The future direction of CUE will be determined by the markets reaction to these and other events. Market sentiment. The chart simply depicts market sentiment - no more, no less.

Shrewdy and AA - There is no point whatsoever in quoting MacDunk with regard to the use of TA. He knows little or nothing about it and in fact doesn't use it.

tim23

27-07-2008, 07:46 PM

Tim23 :- "I spoke too soon - I did get a bagging for my trouble."
Huh? For your trouble? Posting a single sentence throwaway line? Buddy, I am the one who went to some trouble here - it takes quite a bit of time and effort to put together a post like that. Besides, you deserved bagging for advising Shephejame to "Just buy it if you believe in the story". Where is the rational argument or logic in a statement like that?

Take it easy. So do I take it that every share purchase/selling decision must be chart based? That does not make sense to me; why have analysts, brokers, researchers etc?

tim23

27-07-2008, 08:08 PM

To Tim23

...analysts, brokers, researchers

If Any Good \

Oh really - I've haven't seen a chart/analysis in the Forbar reports that I can recall?

zacman

28-07-2008, 08:56 AM

Phaedrus, you say: "Maybe they appear that way to you because you are unaware of the strict definitions that underlie the features that I merely draw attention to. Trends, trendlines, indicators, formations such a double tops etc., are all objectively defined with little or no room for any subjectivity. No-one could legitimately draw that green trendline anywhere other than where it is, for example. "

The definition may be objective, but the chosen examples are subjective.

A number of other double tops were not chosen. After the July 07 double top there was another; after September 07 there were 3 or 4 others; from January to March there appeared to my untrained eye to be many double tops.

Of course there is a fall in shareprice after each double top ... that is implicit in the use of the word "top".

I do agree that the future shareprice must be a reflection of the markets reaction to what comes out of the ground. That is why your chart has limited relevance to this share. The future has yet to occur and so looking at past charts should have little relevance to the future direction. Although I must concede that if you were looking at a time frame of only a few days then the various trends double tops or similar would be invaluable.

zacman

Phaedrus

28-07-2008, 09:46 AM

.. the chosen examples are subjective... A number of other double tops were not chosen....After the July 07 double top there was another....after September 07 there were 3 or 4 others.... from January to March there appeared to my untrained eye to be many double tops.
Wrong on five counts, Zacman.

(1) "The chosen examples are subjective..."
Double tops are NOT a subjective phenomenon. Their identification characteristics are so clearly defined that there are many computer programs set up to detect and flag them - Automatically and objectively.

(2) "A number of other double tops were not chosen...."
There were NO other double tops in 2007 and 2008.

(3) "After the July 07 double top there was another"
Not so. There needs to be an uptrend leading to the formation.

(4) "After September 07 there were 3 or 4 others...."
Wrong. These all had more than 2 minor peaks and were in any case preceded by falling prices, not an uptrend.

(5) "from January to March there appeared to my untrained eye to be many double tops"
Zacman, there is not a single instance of a double top over those months. Go back and look at the chart again more carefully. If you still disagree, say so and I will post an expanded chart of that time period and we can go over it with a fine-tooth comb. Peak by peak.

Of course there is a fall in shareprice after each double top ... that is implicit in the use of the word "top".
By definition, a double top is not formed until prices fall below the middle trough. Statistics show that the average decline after that is around 20% and that's EXACTLY what happened here. Neat eh?

STRAT

28-07-2008, 12:26 PM

Phaedrus,
I love it when people push your buttons. I get an education every time.

Cheers

Phaedrus

28-07-2008, 02:10 PM

Shrewdy, I have never disagreed with your fundamental assessment of CUE and am simply trying to illustrate that the use of some kindergarten level TA would enable you and others to time your entries more effectively.

Here is another CUE chart, this time with the addition of a slow stochastic oscillator. Buy signals are triggered when the oscillator rises through the "OverSold" threshold from below. The chart shows 10 buy signals numbered in chronological order.
(1) OBV trendline break.
(2) Price break of long-term trendline.
(3) Stochastic oscillator buy signal.
(4) Break above previous resistance and uptrend confirmed.
(5) Reversal and confirmation of tentative trendline.
(6) Stochastic oscillator buy signal.
(7) Reversal at trendline (and another confirmation of the trendline)
(8) Stochastic oscillator buy signal.
(9) Another Stochastic oscillator buy signal (hasn't happened yet)
(10) Break above "medium-term" (magenta) trendline (hasn't happened yet)
All in all, a pretty good set of entry points, I'm sure you'll agree.

The chart also identifies when NOT to buy - just after a double-top has been formed, for example. These "don't buy" areas are marked with a red "skull and crossbones". You were buying at the big blue dot - at exactly the wrong time! Note, too, that the Stochastic oscillator was "OverBought" at that time - the idea is to buy when oscillators are rising from "OverSold" levels.

A year later and you are still not in profit - all the TA based entries are though.

Shrewdy, most any of the entry signals shown here are way better than any of your entries.

See how TA could help you?

http://h1.ripway.com/Phaedrus/CUE728.gif

clearasmud

28-07-2008, 02:26 PM

Interesting thread guys.
I'm quite heavily into Cue
.
Has anybody got any positive or negative comments on
Cues management and directors,The Todd Family or Singapore petroleum?

Oops, to answer this on a public forum may be libelous!

tricha

28-07-2008, 02:45 PM

Phaedrus - "year later and you are still not in profit - all the TA based entries are though."

Excellent stuff Phaedrus, u must be worth millions on a system that never loses.

I'm a fundamentalist through and through. I guess u must be a dedicated trader.
I'm a buy and hold on fundamentals.

The way the market is, u are going to tell me cash cows like COE, NZO, PPP are a sell.

Companies like CUE and OEL who should join the cash cow ranks soon, are a sell.

Companies like BOW and VPE who are speculative but can re-rate in a instant, are a sell.

They would probably all meet your T\A requirement as a sell.

Just for example COE, fundamentally a cash cow. What do the clouds tell u :confused:

Investor Update
July 2008

© Cooper Energy Limited

Overview

Australian oil producer with attractive growing international portfolio

• ASX listed (COE) conventional upstream exploration and production company

– FY08 record production of 380,000 barrels of oil
– FY08 record proved reserves of 1.45 million barrels of oil (P50)
Their enterprise value for 1.45 million barrels of oil and any exploration upside is 34 million.

• Emerging international exploration/appraisal portfolio to drive growth

– > 1 billion barrels of undiscovered recoverable oil (P50) in portfolio
• Market cap A$106 million @ A$0.42 per share

– Cash equivalents of A$72 million (cash and share investments)
– Enterprise value of A$34 million
• Record FY08 production revenue of A$44 million

– FY08 EBITDAX of A$29 million
• Potential to deliver strong results in 2009

– International exploration drilling in Tunisia and Indonesia expected
– Unhedged oil production with growth options
• Quality E&P technical team based in Perth with high international experience

2

zorba

28-07-2008, 08:07 PM

Tricha,

What a fantastic fantasy statement:

"1 billion barrels of undiscovered recoverable oil ..... "

Sounds like COE have been hiring Donald Rumsfield to do their PR !!!!

Z

Crypto Crude

28-07-2008, 08:33 PM

phaedrus-
Shrewdy, most any of the entry signals shown here are way better than any of your entries.

See how TA could help you?

Phaedrus,
Last year I was a big big fan of NWE before production jitters at Puffin, when I sold...So the greeen buying dots of 1.2.4 were not a option as I was about 80% all in on NWE and had no room for CUE, infact I was not even looking closely at CUE then... dot 5 was a major down market day and to be completely honest I was not buying on that day, all other Specs were getting trolleyed...My first buy was only off pointer 7 by half a cent...
To completely honest Im quite proud of my entries, the fact that I fell in love with CUE, I still pulled out when I knew I had too.. I sold at the right time, I came back (what 6 months later and rebought)...
I feel in love with NWE and sold that one...
its not an easy thing to do when you are dealing with stocks (at that time) that have future revenue streams far far above the market cap of the stock...
Phaedrus, You always do amazing graphs after the event... When CUE has meet all the criteria for a buy then post it here before it happens...
I appreciate your charts and TA is a very good suppliment to FA...
Im still in the view that TA is most suited to Blue chips/ big capped stocks etc and little room for them in Spec oilers...
In a strong market (on current market information) I would have no problem going all in on CUE...

My dad recently sold his house so Im helping him move out aswell as me moving into a flat, with all the usuals on the go...
So Its best I disperse for abit and I will be back shortly...
Thank you for everything phaedrus,
I turely like constructive debate... as individuals we become very one eyed, stubborn, set in our own ways, so a different view is totally welcome...
I commend debate... I dare someone to debate Cue on a FA view...
From a Fundamental point of view- focusing on negatives is a good thing...
BUT I cant find many at all...
in the case of CUE TA criteria should be loose, and more Fundamental intensive...
thank you all...
Show me the money....
see yahs all very soon....
:cool:
.^sc

Crypto Crude

28-07-2008, 08:38 PM

tricha

28-07-2008, 08:40 PM

Tricha,

What a fantastic fantasy statement:

"1 billion barrels of undiscovered recoverable oil ..... "

Sounds like COE have been hiring Donald Rumsfield to do their PR !!!!

Z

Arr Zorba

Thats the beauty in investing in these shares, a bit like lotto.

One of them will hit the jackpot and I will never have to work again.

Thats why T\A is irrelevent in these companies, they will never predict whats on the end of a drill bit.

Will u be sitting there watching your T\A and holy smoke, u r left at the train station watching the ship sail away :D

tricha

28-07-2008, 08:45 PM

Oh yes,
and this week I am going to sell WHN and AKK...
I will put the funds aside and pour them all into CUE if failure at Cobra sends Cues SP to 20cents...
Upon this, I would be somewhere around 60-65% all in on CUE...
:cool:
.^sc

Oh yeah, Shrewd, Phaedrus will be at the train station watching the ship sail away.

Fundamentally correct, CUE will follow NZO's footsteps and become a cash cow, right in the heart of the Taranaki, cow country.

Huang Chung

28-07-2008, 08:51 PM

Tricha,

What a fantastic fantasy statement:

"1 billion barrels of undiscovered recoverable oil ..... "

Sounds like COE have been hiring Donald Rumsfield to do their PR !!!!

Z

That's very funny zorba....known unknowns! :D

Phaedrus

28-07-2008, 09:40 PM

Phaedrus, You always do amazing graphs after the event... When CUE has meet all the criteria for a buy then post it here before it happens..

For God's sake Shrewdy, I've done just EXACTLY THAT!
Go back and read the post again, taking a very careful look at buy signals (9) and (10). Two buy signals posted here before they happened.

I appreciate your charts and TA is a very good suppliment to FA...

Good on you Shrewdy. That's all I set out to prove. Thankyou.

I'm going to type a very rude word here so Vince will send me on a compulsory weeks holiday - I feel as though I need it!

****

STRAT

28-07-2008, 10:30 PM

Thats why T\A is irrelevent in these companies, they will never predict whats on the end of a drill bit.

Got to disagree with that Tricha. It will never predict what is at the end of a drill but can often show what those close to the drillbit know before they make it public information.

axion

29-07-2008, 12:13 AM

Arr Zorba

Thats the beauty in investing in these shares, a bit like lotto.

One of them will hit the jackpot and I will never have to work again.

Thats why T\A is irrelevent in these companies, they will never predict whats on the end of a drill bit.

Will u be sitting there watching your T\A and holy smoke, u r left at the train station watching the ship sail away :D

Some people would rather grind out a steady, relatively small, consistent profit, rather than praying they're going to have skin in the game when (if) a company hits the big time.

Crypto Crude

29-07-2008, 12:30 AM

ok ok phaedrus,
I had alook through it all...
My understanding, the signals to buy CUE are as follows...

1) buy when CUE is close or on the trendline (green line)...
2) or buy if CUE breaks above the Magenta short term trendline...
(9) Another Stochastic oscillator buy signal (hasn't happened yet)
(10) Break above "medium-term" (magenta) trendline (hasn't happened yet)

as it has not happened yet, I am trusting you that you will post here when it has happened...
thats all im saying...

at that time post the Share price so we can track your performance because your charts always seem to show the exact bottom price to buy ( and you post all the beautiful entry points only after the event)...
Your mr TA champion... you tell us when its a confirmed Technical buy...

Im asking for you to call CUE when its a buy and we can track you against Me with a 21.8cent average and I will double my holdings to under 21c average if Cobra is a dud...
Thats all im saying...

phaedrus- I'm telling him NOT to buy.

I'm telling him that if he wants to buy, to WAIT.

We will WAIT for confirmation of your technical buy signal with the Shareprice at that time...
thanking you in advance...
:cool:
.^sc

Phaedrus

29-07-2008, 11:40 AM

Don't bother waiting for me to post more CUE signals here, Shrewdy. There is no point. I am not interested in making "calls" or entering into competitions with you. I was simply trying to show how you could use TA to improve your entry points. If you (and others) don't want to know, that's OK.

You do disappoint me though. You are proposing to "evaluate" the worth of TA on the basis of a single signal from a single indicator on a single stock! That is a crazy suggestion which would prove nothing and I won't be humouring you on this. There is no need for us to launch our own investigation - we can learn from the research of others, statistics and from our own historical results.

Colby and Meyers researched the value and accuracy of more than 100 technical indicators over 20 years of data, comparing them all with a "buy and hold" strategy. They found indicators that simply didn't work. They found indicators that were worse than useless. They found indicators that worked very well indeed. One of their top-performing indicators was the slow Stochastic Oscillator. You can see from the chart that since the start of 2007, this oscillator has flagged 2 excellent CUE entry points at (3) and (6). A third signal (8) was triggered only 11 days ago - too recent to say whether it will ultimately prove to be "right" or not. Now you want us to have some silly pissing competition over the timing and accuracy of its next signal (9) - as if that will give us more idea of the worth of this indicator than the preceding signals!

It would be absurd to expect any indicator to be 100% accurate, but it is surprising just how good some of them are. Take a look at the Rectangle formed between Nov 05 and May 06. Imagine the upper (resistance) line and you can see a normal "trading range". Now, statistics tell us that such a formation will break out in an upward direction 43% of the time and a downward direction 57% of the time. In other words, it is slightly more likely to be a continuation pattern rather than a reversal pattern, but these figures are of no practical use - we might just as well toss a coin. Look what happens if we wait for the breakout, though. Stocks that break out to the downside have a 96% likelihood of continuing on to drop an average of 19%. Now that is fairly reliable signal and is of course why that red arrow "Sell" signal is where it is.

Look now at buy signal (4). This marked the confirmation of a new uptrend, the breaking of previous resistance and completed an "Ascending Triangle" formation. Before any breakout, this formation has a predictive failure rate of 32%. Not that good. After an upside breakout, though, the failure rate drops to just 2%! In other words, an upside breakout from an ascending triangle has a very very high likelihood of continuing on, with an average rise of 44%. (This example gave a rise of 39%) The odds that this signal was "right" were very high.

We have already discussed "Double Top" formations. Suffice to say that these are followed by an average decline of 20% with a failure rate of 17%. In other words, these are a Bearish formation and there was an 83% likelihood that you were buying into CUE at a bad time.

Which you were.

Grand Uber

29-07-2008, 12:15 PM

Phaedrus,
I love it when people push your buttons. I get an education every time.

Cheers

You should be charging for this Phaedrus

Come on keep banging your head against the brick wall

STRAT

29-07-2008, 12:27 PM

http://www.wtrg.com/daily/clfclose.gif

Is that a double top I spy on this chart :eek:

Phaedrus

29-07-2008, 12:32 PM

Good lad!

My work here is done.

upside_umop

29-07-2008, 12:39 PM

Strat, i went to bed thinking the same thing last night!
Thanks P, dont think its ever wasted!

Phaedrus

29-07-2008, 03:55 PM

Oh yeah, Shrewd, Phaedrus will be at the train station watching the ship sail away.

I think you've got yourself a little confused there, Tricha. It's TRAINS that leave stations, not ships.

That is an unfortunate comment all the same. I'll bet you don't want to be reminded of when you last said something like that!

Gentle readers, the stock is PEM and all the comments are direct quotes from Tricha's posts. This is a startling example of how "a fundamentalist through and through" goes about investing. It's all there - averaging down, quotes from Buffett, the lot. $5.30 to $1.30 in just 7 months and buying more all the way down.

http://h1.ripway.com/Phaedrus/Tricha.gif

PS : Tricha, what makes you so sure that I don't hold any CUE?

Taijon

29-07-2008, 04:24 PM

An absolute classic Phaedrus. A great example to use in a textbook - readers would learn a hell of a lot. Thanks a million.

shasta

30-07-2008, 05:31 PM

An absolute classic Phaedrus. A great example to use in a textbook - readers would learn a hell of a lot. Thanks a million.

CUE quarterly made for nice reading...

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=CUE&E=ASX&N=302437

Might have to join the party :D

tricha

30-07-2008, 08:26 PM

Shrewd - "Im asking for you to call CUE when its a buy and we can track you against Me with a 21.8cent average and I will double my holdings to under 21c average if Cobra is a dud...
Thats all im saying..."

Phaedrus (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/member.php?u=4593) "Don't bother waiting for me to post more CUE signals here, Shrewdy. There is no point. I am not interested in making "calls" or entering into competitions with you. I was simply trying to show how you could use TA to improve your entry points. If you (and others) don't want to know, that's OK."

U really disappoint me Phaedrus.

But then I'm not suprised, looking in the rear vision mirror, looking at the clouds, obscured by the sun, coming up with historical events.

If u never tell anyone which shares you hold, I guess no one can judge u and u r always right.:p U R a winner :)

Phaedrus - "year later and you are still not in profit - all the TA based entries are though."

I've openly admitted, PEM would have to be one of my worst mistakes and I have made lots more and I'll make more again. NWE, BMA, CTO the list goes on.
U still have to have an exit stragedy and its working.
If I get 4-5 right out of ten I'll do OK.

PEM had nothing to do with T\A. It had all to do with fundamentals. And I'm the Fool for not picking up on them. :(

So heres the big question, what do u hold, do u hold CUE and when did u buy.

Please do not disappoint and change the subject like u did with Shrewd.

P.S I guess u have never been to Fremantle either have u Phaedrus

tim23

30-07-2008, 08:43 PM

Yes Trica I can see where you are coming from can Mr P really pick the future, the past looks easier?

bermuda

30-07-2008, 08:52 PM

Yes Trica I can see where you are coming from can Mr P really pick the future, the past looks easier?

Tim23.,
Phaedrus is a legend. Have a look at the BOW chart and if that aint a double top then I would like to know what is. I never saw it. Just believed in fundamentals.

Which is why I am holding BOW. It will be a bit of a wait until we hit new highs, but we will.

And when the next double top occurs, I might take a bit of notice.

Cue's quarterley was ok and Maari will help. How they heat that crude I dont know. I prefer sweet light Tapis grade Tui. It is easier to get out of the ground.

Wouldnt want to be on a rig tonite. Wind and rain about to arrive.

tim23

30-07-2008, 09:11 PM

Tim23.,
Phaedrus is a legend. Have a look at the BOW chart and if that aint a double top then I would like to know what is. I never saw it. Just believed in fundamentals.

I won;t bother but does the chart rules the fundamentals?

bermuda

30-07-2008, 09:22 PM

tim23

30-07-2008, 09:46 PM

So chart = sentiment?

STRAT

30-07-2008, 09:53 PM

tricha

30-07-2008, 10:49 PM

Holding a interest in shares and investments for those serious and really interested, becomes a hobby of continuous learning, I can't count the times I've changed my mind as I've evolved in learning... the mistakes i've made and are still making ... all the time... these are stepping stones to progress...

Every one needs a challenge to their thinking, whether ones right or wrong doesn't really matter, but pushing different thought patterns do...

Shares are a big subject.... Follow the yellow brick road......why not learn it all !

Every one needs a push, now and then to get momentum going.

Debate does it

Expand your Ideas

AA

WELL said AA :) U have really got me thinking.:p

tricha

30-07-2008, 11:33 PM

G0ta Love Pussy

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qit3ALTelOo

Trade Like A Trunk

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JaHEEFUd1so&NR=1

WELL, a bit of the subject.

But yeah, absolut-advanceG0ta Love Pussy

AAhttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o8d5ciSuYjU&feature=related

AMR

31-07-2008, 12:22 AM

I really dont get why TA and FA has to be a battle and why it has to be personal. The two combined are useful and still not the whole picture. We never get the whole picture and if we did we would of course be insider traders. No one system for investing or part of an investment system works every time so to ignore any tool that has a proven track record for success is plain nuts.

80% of every dumb move I have made was on the chart if I had looked hard enough or had the skills to read it right and 80% of my best buys have been tips from Fundies with simple TA entries and exits. You guys do the math.

Strat, it sounds simple in reality but what do you do when TA says sell and FA says buy? It's a bad case of analysis paralysis and really messes you up if you are faced with this situation constantly (OEL myself and NZO more recently). On the other hand buying into small oil companies is a fundamental step at improving the risk-reward ratio, and having said that I believe that TA is not essential to investing. I am now looking to use a value-based FA system as a filter (CANSLIM?) and then applying TA to companies that have passed that test.

The key thing is having a money management system and being flexible enough to admit you were wrong about a company and bail with a small loss. TA may not have prevented MacDunk and Tricha's PEM disaster but it would have helped with setting stop losses for money management.

AMR

31-07-2008, 12:34 AM

AMR,
when you think about it ... isn't TA all about limiting loses e.g Protecting Downside...

and locking in gains? Profit Protection.

AA

Exactly, TA helps money management by allowing us to bail when the trend changes or the floor price fails.

I'm going to throw up now, those videos on bottoming formations weren't quite what I expected! :eek::eek:

STRAT

31-07-2008, 06:20 AM

Strat, it sounds simple in reality but what do you do when TA says sell and FA says buy? It's a bad case of analysis paralysis and really messes you up if you are faced with this situation constantly (OEL myself and NZO more recently). On the other hand buying into small oil companies is a fundamental step at improving the risk-reward ratio, and having said that I believe that TA is not essential to investing. I am now looking to use a value-based FA system as a filter (CANSLIM?) and then applying TA to companies that have passed that test.

The key thing is having a money management system and being flexible enough to admit you were wrong about a company and bail with a small loss. TA may not have prevented MacDunk and Tricha's PEM disaster but it would have helped with setting stop losses for money management.Hi AMR,
That was kinda my point. Not any one system works every time and it often comes down to weighing up the pros and cons in a well rounded manner. As AA says its Mr market we are really playing more than anything. Of course it can still turn to crap even then.
Sounds like you have done a bit of a 180 on TA but Im sure you are just adding to your toolbox.
I got excited by Tricha and Maccas posts on PEM but the chart stopped me pushing the buy button thankfully.

AA
all things considered I think the entry point on that last chart of yours may be wrong :p

Financially dependant

31-07-2008, 01:15 PM

http://stocknessmonster.com/news-item?E=ASX&S=ORG&N=514394

Rig ready to be moved, weather window early next week:)!

Crypto Crude

04-08-2008, 03:20 PM

phaedrus-Don't bother waiting for me to post more CUE signals here, Shrewdy. There is no point. I am not interested in making "calls" or entering into competitions with you. I was simply trying to show how you could use TA to improve your entry points. If you (and others) don't want to know, that's OK.

Phaedrus,
This is not a competition... this is about CUE itself and you have said dont buy CUE wait... "wait for what", one might ask...
I will tell you..... we will Wait for you to come back in 6 months with your pretty charts showing the great entry points that we had on the offering... These convient entry points you post 6 months after the event dont mean anything, because you never call them...
....
you say dont buy now, wait.... wait for it to fall to the green trendline, or wait for it to rise to the Magneta line...
So Expected buy price is somewhere in the middle around 22cents...
buying now is much better because if Cobra is a gusher then expect a big gap up, and if Final drilling results are late and Ensoc is on location then there might be no downside at all...

phaedrus-
You do disappoint me though. You are proposing to "evaluate" the worth of TA on the basis of a single signal from a single indicator on a single stock! That is a crazy suggestion which would prove nothing and I won't be humouring you on this. There is no need for us to launch our own investigation - we can learn from the research of others, statistics and from our own historical results.

No phaedrus, you dissapoint me...
The only crazy thing is someone of your ability not prepared to put his neck on the line and pick an entry for CUE... Your talent has gone to waste in this instance because as a technical charter, picking an entry price is probably the single most important thing....
this is not TA vs FA... I am going to learn the trade next year...
TA is very important...
thanks for your charts and commentary...
:cool:
.^sc

Phaedrus

04-08-2008, 04:28 PM

Phaedrus, this is not a competition... this is about CUE itself and you have said dont buy CUE, wait... "wait for what", one might ask...

One might ask, but most would have been in no doubt at all!
Here is what I said over a week ago :-

"I have drawn a tentative short-term trendline (magenta) and the logical thing for Shephejame to do is wait - and buy if/when CUE breaks above this trendline."

Incredibly, it would appear that you have failed to understand this simple sentence, furthermore for some reason you want me to actually tell you when this happens - something you deem to be "making a call"(!)

OK Shrewdy, I'll spoon feed you, if that's what you really want. It looks like today is the day, giving Shephejame an entry into CUE at 22 cents.

TA is very important...thanks for your charts and commentary...

My pleasure. It's nice to have my efforts appreciated.

Phaedrus

04-08-2008, 06:36 PM

http://h1.ripway.com/Phaedrus/CUE84.gif

bermuda

04-08-2008, 10:02 PM

After reading all these posts I get the feeling that you guys like CUE. I do too but I always found Tweedie litigious. A bit like that fellow from Greymouth.

Suffered a bit with TEX today and sold out very early. You guys have taught me. When you see bad news, hit the button. Dont hang around trying to invent good news . Get out quick.

In honour of this site I am buying CUE tomorrow.

Jess9

05-08-2008, 08:10 AM

All the interest generated from this site may even confirm the new trend ; )

Jess9

05-08-2008, 12:33 PM

I guess any break over say 23c on volume, might indictate further "the right time"?

Phaedrus

05-08-2008, 01:38 PM

tricha

05-08-2008, 02:46 PM

Right. It would take a Close of over 23 cents to give a new "short-term" (4 week) uptrend.
Volumes have been very low - well below average. Without volume confirmation, this breakout will not get very far.
Note also that the Stochastic oscillator, while it is in "OverSold" territory, has not yet risen far enough to give a "Buy" signal.
Another positive indication would be an OBV trendline break. (A break above a straight line drawn from the September high to the May high.)

Yesterday - Phaedrus -"OK Shrewdy, I'll spoon feed you, if that's what you really want. It looks like today is the day, giving Shephejame an entry into CUE at 22 cents."

Hmm, Make up your mind, bloody clouds are ...........................

STRAT

05-08-2008, 02:57 PM

Yesterday - Phaedrus -"OK Shrewdy, I'll spoon feed you, if that's what you really want. It looks like today is the day, giving Shephejame an entry into CUE at 22 cents."

Hmm, Make up your mind, bloody clouds are ...........................Think you might be taking an answer to a question and an additional comment out of context there Tricha. The message looks the same to me :D

Crypto Crude

05-08-2008, 06:26 PM

strike one, strike two, strike OIL....
hahaha....
get ready for the third sidetrack...
im getting more CUE over the next day or so...
later...
:cool:
.^sc

Crypto Crude

06-08-2008, 02:52 PM

http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3156/2736725631_8b9215786a.jpg?v=0
Red shows Oil... Green Shows Gas cap
See how Maari-1 hit the very top of the anticline...
See how Manaia was drilled off center...
If they re-drill manaia 600-800 meters (guess) North, then kaboom...
... The manaia structure was not drilled in the most optimal location (back in 1970)...This is why HZN reckon they could yield up to 35-40 million barrels more...
:cool:
.^sc

Crypto Crude

06-08-2008, 03:19 PM

http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3290/2737631524_abfbbb7874.jpg?v=0
Heres abit more information...
The Maari Development program currently consists only of production from the Moki Formation with P50 of 50million barrels, with 140 Million barrels in place...

so as for adding to reserves we have Kapuni formation (mangahewa)
from both Manaia, and Maari.. Moki formation in Manaia, and M2a in The main field...
so big upside to just the current development of the Moki formation in main field...
Appraisal of manaia and further testing in the main field could net
---> closer to 5 million barrels recoverable to CUE...
When you compare the Market cap to this alone then wow...
Thats without the two other major developing projects...
Whole portfolio of exploration drills coming...
further appraisal drilling on its way...
PNG assets...
Current Revenues of approximately 4million per month...
Watch out...
....
I bought a few more shares today at 21.5c...
sellers now at 21c...
:cool:
.^sc

tricha

06-08-2008, 11:49 PM

Good to see u r doing your homework Shrewdy (excellent stuff), instead of wasting valuable time, staring up at the sky and cloud watching.

Yes, any one off many potential explosive events, could unfold and in the blink of a trade, u r sitting there, watching the boat leave the station.:rolleyes:

ELYOB

07-08-2008, 09:17 PM

Mr Shrewdude,

Much appreciate your info ; keep it coming , you seem to have good depth on the subject . Thanks again Shrewdcue

STRAT

07-08-2008, 09:54 PM

tricha

07-08-2008, 11:16 PM

Haha,
Cloud patterns say get ready , get set, not yet:D:D:D
20c tomorrow

Hmm Strat, I hope U R right, 20 cents would be taken greatfully.tasty :p

Just listened to Peter Strahaun on stockanalysis ;)

Oh Boy :D

Corporate

08-08-2008, 07:02 AM

Hmm Strat, I hope U R right, 20 cents would be taken greatfully.tasty :p

Just listened to Peter Strahaun on stockanalysis ;)

Oh Boy :D

SC, do you think Maari will have a big influence on the share price. Given only a 5% interest? Interest in your thoughts

jdg

08-08-2008, 09:26 AM

shephejame, don't be too focused on the small percentage of interest. you're better served to look at the income vs current market cap. cue's 5% share is set to deliver somewhere in the vicinity of 600,000 barrels of oil to cue in 2009 alone. at US$100 per barrel that's US$60m (gross) to CUE. current market cap is AUD$130m. and remember that is just one year of maari which is just one income stream for CUE. maari is very significant for CUE, even with a small slice of the overall take. moreover, as shrewd has pointed out, there is a very good chance that resources at and around maari will increase significantly. Have a look at pages 8 and 9 of this report to give you an idea of what's coming CUE's way.

http://cuenrg.onlinepublicity.net/files/grabdoc.php?type=doc&id=477&cid=105

-j

Corporate

08-08-2008, 10:12 AM

jdg

08-08-2008, 10:57 AM

i'm hearing you. i rode PPP up from A$.15 to A$.34 and sold half then dropped the rest at A$.24 after the duster at... i forget the name (around the time of tui start up). for me, PPP was going to make a bundle (and they have) but they didn't have firm future endeavours - beside maitland and that still hasn't been given the green light. CUE has two significant projects that will come on stream after maari - and that i see as a key difference. after maari start up there's oyong gas, after oyong gas we have wortel gas. there is always anticipation around the corner. without any production problems, the next two years for CUE will be awesome and with an aggressive exploration schedule there is potential for a few bingo wins along the way. that's the way i see it, anyway.

-j

Crypto Crude

08-08-2008, 01:02 PM

shephejame-my only concern is that the market wont' recognised it. Look at PPP pulling in a lot more $$$ and the SP is same as it was a year ago. Also the MCAP equal to CUE. I know they have different projects etc

I'll show you the difference...http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3288/2743033172_fd70f6a51a.jpg?v=0
above is CUEs schedule...

Below is PPP's schedule...

.....
See, its just an empty space...

PPP have good revenues but nothing else...
The best thing possible for PPP is payout 100% dividends and wind the business down over time... They have no direction...

I have not experienced it personally but I know and have heard of many many stories about how juniors become mid caps through majorly successful projects, then then try to emulate this through other paths of growth (eg drilling), and they never hit that same luck, and end up the "shell" -where they came from... its all too common...

PPP looks ripe for this, so perhaps collecting revenues is the best thing possible.... Im not mocking PPP...
CUE have multiple drivers...
this stock will still perform if these two things happen
1)DOW falls to 9000
2)Oil falls to US $85..

Look at Mid 2009 for CUE... four wells, barikewa appraisal is set to push CUE past 50cents alone... all drills offset by Maari and First Oyong gas...
If a number of dots become connected then CUE could hit two dollars next year...
no ramp...
Ive now got over half my portfolio on CUE, since ive been buying over the last few weeks...
:cool:
.^sc

duncan macgregor

08-08-2008, 01:18 PM

You are to early SHREWDY. It still has to trade above the thirty day moving average in this a down trending market. The time to buy is later in a less risky market. The share will give a buy signal thats when to climb on board not jump the gun trying to pick the bottom. Macdunk

Crypto Crude

08-08-2008, 03:03 PM

Heres what Horizon are saying...
http://www.horizonoil.com.au/Press%20Releases/2008/February/Maari%20could%20hold%20up%20to%2087MMbbl_Wilson%20 HTM.pdf

shephejame...
PPP have 10% of 50million barrels from Tui...
CUE currently have 5% of 50million (2P)... with the most likely outcome of 50million barrels recoverable getting re-rated much much closer to 100million barrels, due to Manaia having the goods, appraisal drilling 1st quarter 09 into a proven field, and the other targets in the main field...
so effectively CUE will net a similar amount to what PPP will (in total net recoverable barrels).. plus all the added bonuses on multiple developing projects.... etc blah blah blah...
The reason why CUE is a slow ramp up is because they have taken on an expansive array of developing projects (multiple) which are cash thirsty...
Infact NZO is a perfect company to Model CUE off because they are so similiar in so many ways... CUE is around one year behind the NZO model...
and has more upside to it...and set to re-rate in a big way over the coming 6 months...
last quarter CUE had record quarterly revenues of 13.2m... Thats 50million annualised...135m Mcap....
But Because CUE has three main developing projects --> (maari, oyong gas, Wortel)... the capital expenditure costs are sucking up a great deal of these current strong cashflows...For this quarter alone development costs were anticipated to be 7.6 million dollars...
Between SE Gobe, Oyong Oil, Oyong Gas, Maari, Manaia (can tick a future tie in to Maari), Wortel Gas.... CUE is headed to 50cents and thats with zero exploration success...
Here I have two pics...
first one is CUE vs NZO over the last 5 years...

http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3035/2743302462_8069ed4487.jpg?v=0

and secondly,
http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3166/2743302466_e96faa3d08.jpg?v=0
Look at the circle of the proposed drilling location of the 1st quarter appraisal drill on Manaia...
Humm.... right in the sweet spot of the field...
yeahh haarrhh... We are going to be laughing straight to the bank with this... Its shaping up to be a slow ride in the mean time...
Best oil stock in the market...
exploration, appraisal, development, production--> foot in every stage...
best future mid tier ASX oiler...
pity how Maari development drilling has been held up, and held up, and held up time after time...
Oh well, first production late Oct, inline with Zeus well and Spikey beach (both free carried)... we will se 30 CPS in Nov... later...
Raging bull...
bye for now....
:cool:
.^sc

tricha

08-08-2008, 10:26 PM

Corporate

10-08-2008, 03:54 PM

Hi Shrewdy

Zeus, sounds like around Phaedrus's time.

Maybe that's a sign of great things to come !

What does your research on Zeus show, listening to Peter S last night, CUE own 20% and if it comes up trumps, it's worth 80 cents a share to them.

Sorry for being lazy and not doing my own indept research :)

Tricka - where is this audio you are talking about?

tricha

10-08-2008, 07:11 PM

Tricka - where is this audio you are talking about?

It's under copywright, u have to subscribe to get it at

http://www.stockanalysis.com.au/

bermuda

10-08-2008, 07:49 PM

It's under copywright, u have to subscribe to get it at

http://www.stockanalysis.com.au/

Peter has a pretty good and balanced brain. That is why I subscribe to him as well.

Doesnt always get it right so I just take his opinion into account.

The more I study CUE, the more I like it,,,,not really due to Maari,,,but elsewhere.

Crypto Crude

11-08-2008, 04:12 PM

tricha-
Hi Shrewdy

Zeus, sounds like around Phaedrus's time.

Maybe that's a sign of great things to come !

What does your research on Zeus show, listening to Peter S last night, CUE own 20% and if it comes up trumps, it's worth 80 cents a share to them.

Sorry for being lazy and not doing my own indept research

Tricha,
Over the last 5 years I have followed a strategy (usually investing in oilers which have a few characterics/ unless I have alittle dabble in other sorts of plays..) This form of strategy I have mostly tended to involves focusing my efforts on the fundaments EG-->investing in an oiler for developing projects.... I look at zeus, and Spikey Beach as nothing more than a free gift completely offset, and downside protected through the main company drive...IE- 5th gear multiple developing projects....
Ive made some major plays in other companies who had these sorts of characterisitcs, and Exploration wells, and Ive never (or very rarely) had one pulled off... The longer I play this, the greater the chance huh...
So Im not counting my chickens just yet, But I do think there is much to be excited about with Zeus as the Region is Proven with oil and gas fields all around...
I look at Zeus as nothing more that a free shot at mammoth riches, with low downside on SP if its a failure... There will be trading opportunities for traders, I will very likely hold all the way... 30 CPS in NOV and anywhere up from there upon success......this is Risk return that gods dream of... The Zeus God is a major new lead as 3d Interprets the same Sands as the Perseus Field (which is 12 TCF gas field), and Zeus is intrepretted to be bigger perhaps around 10-15-20 TCF with upside...I drew the Zeus feature on the graph and note Persus gas Field in a Black circle...
http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3130/2752327954_e7322dbd28_o.jpg

You can see on these graphs below, The bright spots representing "amplitude-related Hydrocarbon indicators"...
Zeus 3d of the right... Perseus 3d on the left...
You can see on the Zeus feature that there are more bright spots, and more defined---> resulting in More Gas (if it is in place)....
and if gas is present it is likely to be a bigger discovery that Perseus...
I have not seen the drilling location for Zeus, but it can also be seen on the Right that in a particular location that Legendre Sands are double stacked... MEO said Gas column could be 100m....... All this information can be seen in MEO's presentations and around and about...

http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3111/2752368460_fd81f91eeb_o.jpg

The Permits have other great leads, and the Major Strategic alliance with "Resource Development International- RDI" could have major implications for CUE down the line as they are going to list Late this year with an IPO valued around 5 billion dollars, and will be amping to pursue these assets quickly if Zeus is a blowout...... This is the sort of cash thirsty partner we need...

Hum...
My understanding is if Zeus is a success RDI will fully fund MEO and pursue two further appraisal wells... if failure then RDI will fund MEO for one additional exploration well (subject to listing of RDI).... Zeus well is firm for Oct...
And the strategic alliance allows for 8 additional wells across the Three WA offshore permits...MEO have a 3 year commitment in each of the three NWS permits, which involves Seismics (think the seismic costs to date are around 7 Million US) fully funded by MEO... and MEO (now its new partner) will pay 90% of the first exploration well in each of the permits (WA-359P, WA-360P, WA361P), giving CUE potentially three free carried wells at 15% stake, or a chance to pay 5% and increase their stake to 20%...

Zeus is in WA-361P.... Zeus is the most exciting well in Australian waters of 2008....
very big target...
CUE has a shot at one dollar per share this year, with little downside and a Farmin deal to the NWS worth tens of millions of dollars to CUE in free carried costs and Seismic costs...
What a dream...
Spikey beach will be charging (free carried aswell) in October...
aswell as First Maari Oil...
30 CPS minimum....
this will be easy money....
more than 50% of my portfolio on it...
later...
:cool:
.^sc