NZ Oil & Gas (NZO)

[COLIN]

Worse than that I cant get direct to the last post
I have sent a message to the webmaster. its most frustrating.
And why the sudden drop in the sp just before close?

[blockhead]

Finally shareholders will get a little something for their patients!
Thought perhaps we may see a wee rise in share price with this announcement.
Perhaps I have just dreamt that I read an email about a dividend?....:)

Interesting post Noodle, did you mean "patients" or did you actually mean "patience"...one is a cot case and the other is the ability to wait a long time...which one is NOG ????

[Noodle]

Too true Blockhead.....looks like a cot case to me!!!.....Im at a loss to think what f... is going on! NZO will pay a dividend first time ever, well at least in my share trading life time and we have a big drop!!!???

Yes tomorrow will be interesting! I havent read of any possible dividend so I thought the news of a small dividend today was good news and would have expected at the very least for the SP to hold its own.....whos selling all those shares at the end of days trade....I looked 10 mins before close and was looking stable, I get home now and we have done the dive!!!! and on big volume!

Is there bad news just around the corner?
Did some big investors know there was a dividend but expect more?
Lots of questions and no answers again!

Lets see tomorrow :(


Interesting post Noodle, did you mean "patients" or did you actually mean "patience"...one is a cot case and the other is the ability to wait a long time...which one is NOG ????

[blockhead]

The divy was actually announced back on the 27th Feb, entitlement date is 4th April and payment 15th from memory, so no surprises there.

[777]

Noodle no big players involved. The following was part of the NZO announcement on the 27th February 2008. All available on the NZO website.

Dividend
The Board of NZOG has resolved to pay a fully imputed dividend for the
2007/08 financial year of 5.0c per ordinary share. This recognises an
outstanding period and provides shareholders with an immediate share of that
success.

The Board has determined a dividend policy that in future a reasonable
proportion of profit will be distributed by way of an annual dividend.

The determination of entitlements for the 5.0 cents dividend will be taken
from the close of the share register on 4 April 2008. The dividend will be
paid on 15 April 2008.

[Noodle]

Oh ok. Was 5cents announced?
Any ideas on why the drop?

[Noodle]

Thanks 777, was replying to previous message and on phone to mrs when you replied to my earlier comment. Never saw the announcement of a 5cent dividend, been far to busy with work and house renovations and dont actually recall receiving an email from NZO about it....never mind...tomorrow is another Nog day!!!

[AMR]

Some influence from Aussie and the Asian indices perhaps. Hang Seng down 4.8%, Europe gapping down by 2% figures.

[Balance]

Kupe gas field has escaped into the atmosphere?

Help!!!!!

[wk6332]

Business StoryRSS Facebook
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------



Kupe to get the good oil after breakthrough
5:00AM Friday March 14, 2008
By Grant Bradley


The Kupe field is expected to produce 15 million barrels of light oil.
New Zealand oil production has reached a milestone with one of three Kupe wells breaking into a target reservoir.

The Kupe field off south Taranaki is expected to produce nearly 15 million barrels of light oil when it comes on stream around the middle of next year.

Kupe was originally thought of as a gas field to replace a portion of the diminishing Maui field but with oil prices through the roof, up to two-thirds of its value could be in liquids.

The life span of production is estimated to be 19 years.

Drilling is on target and the bulk of the work on the $1.2 billion project is now onshore, building processing facilities to process gas, LPG and light oil from the field 30km offshore.

Further north the Tui field has been producing since the middle of last year and is on target to reach the 10 million barrel mark next week.

The major offshore Taranaki projects - Tui, Maari, Kupe and Pohokura - will reach peak production by about 2010 and bring 140 million barrels of new reserves into the market.


Advertisement
%3Cbody%3E%3Cdiv%20id%3D%22adDiv%22%3E%3C/div%3E
AdvertisementTotal oil production will then be at a record level not seen since Maui was at its peak.

An estimated $3 billion is now being spent on major projects in Taranaki and an estimated 30 wells for exploration, appraisal and development are to be drilled around country in the period between 2007 and 2009.

The message from the Petroleum Conference in Auckland this week was to expect the hunt for oil to get even more intense.

New Zealand Oil & Gas holds a 15 per cent stake in Kupe and 12.5 per cent of Tui.

Its chief executive David Salisbury told the conference New Zealand was "small fry"on a global scale - producing just 0.2 per cent of world oil supply - and suffered from its limited domestic market and labour pool.

Being geographically isolated there were few industry participants and experts and no oil infrastructure outside Taranaki. However, this country was relatively under-explored, there were identified basins with good potential and unlike other countries New Zealand offered a safe, secure location.

The company has flagged a $20 million to $25 million exploration programme for the next financial year.

With easy hits disappearing around the world, New Zealand was looking like a better exploration option, he said.

Further down the track, the Raukumara sub-basin off East Cape has shown early promise of what could be billions of barrels of oil.

[digger]

Some influence from Aussie and the Asian indices perhaps. Hang Seng down 4.8%, Europe gapping down by 2% figures.
Still say that until after 4th April we will continue to see some strange and large cross holdings. Hence the big croissing at about 4 oclock means what? Was that a a normal trade or a ownership replacement?

[Nitaa]

Something wrong with this thread?

[duncan macgregor]

Something wrong with this thread? NITA, Nothing wrong with the thread, have a look over your market expectation with your future perception in mind. NZO are coining it in great guns, so ask the question of why the sp is not responding to all this good news. The punters think that NZO will get rich with nothing coming back other than a silly dividend to themselves. Its all in market perception, nothing at all to do with fundamentals. Forget your peak oil, or the price of it, its what the perception is of what comes back to you. Snouts in the trough, plus complete disdane of shareholders right to future intentions will see this company trade under its value until if ever a change of attitude is seen to evolve.
The very best thing i ever did was sell up, and move on. I will never invest in any company ever again that refuses to answer questions about future intentions. Hope to see you at the Auckland meeting . Macdunk

[duncan macgregor]

geez youre a broken record MacKlunk

move on old man, you lost! in a market going down worldwide, NZO put on 34% in short time from the lows

your tealeaves got you out at a loss, and you still hold PEM which hit 98c maca.

wake up fella Sorry to inform you sector or is it cloud nine, that you ridiculed me at the start of the year for being out of the market. thiink you said i dont know how to trade a bear market. I doubled my money got out the market had two spec plays in place AGM and PEM. One right and one wrong, SO WHAT?. Why dont you come over and have a beer with me if you are old enough at the NAT Convention and i will explain further. I read the markets almost perfectly in hindesight, dont mind a loss in a play when waiting on the roadkill to front up. The big crunch is yet to come, as you will find out.
The end of 2008 will be a disaster take me up on that if you want at a later date, but right now i am more than happy with being almost right out the market. Macdunk

[zorba]

.
Grumpy McKlunk
Please do a bunk
Please exit da board
Head to sea with ya sword
And catch a fishy hoard
To make up da dough
You've tossed overboard
What a way to go !!!!

[Nitaa]

NITA, Nothing wrong with the thread, have a look over your market expectation with your future perception in mind. NZO are coining it in great guns, so ask the question of why the sp is not responding to all this good news. The punters think that NZO will get rich with nothing coming back other than a silly dividend to themselves. Its all in market perception, nothing at all to do with fundamentals. Forget your peak oil, or the price of it, its what the perception is of what comes back to you. Snouts in the trough, plus complete disdane of shareholders right to future intentions will see this company trade under its value until if ever a change of attitude is seen to evolve.
The very best thing i ever did was sell up, and move on. I will never invest in any company ever again that refuses to answer questions about future intentions. Hope to see you at the Auckland meeting . MacdunkWRONG BIG GUY.

I was actually referring to trying to view the last page. Looks like admin has played around with it a little bit.

You want me to ask the question why the sp moved down? I know the reason like every other person. Exact opposite to why the sp goes up.

Dunkin.. hey heres a new name ...Dunkin or Dunkin donut... You know how they make the holes in the donut? yes of course you do.. you practised it in the mirror when you were 12 years old except the donuts were the mini ones.....moving on..

I tell you what Dunkin...if if you dont have longish hair, scruffy beard, jandals (at least at home) then the first macs ale is on me...Why is it whenever i picture you is that you remind me of billy connelly

[morpork]

Something wrong with this thread?

Sure is,returns to page 138 whichever page number you try

[Vince]

Sure is,returns to page 138 whichever page number you try
All fixed now......
Vince

[digger]

Currently, we're producing about 5.1 million barrels of oil per day. We will go under half of the oil production of 1970, 37 years later, sometime in the middle of next year. Now this is staggering because, in addition to that, the United States Department of Energy - and I don't know how they got this past Phillip Kooning, Bobby - offered a paper describing the mitigation of oil peak downside, meaning that, after the production of oil slips below half of the peak production, at that point the energy return on energy investment becomes negative


The above bit is from TOD. The talk is about the US peaking in 1970 and next year will be down to half where ROEI becomes negative.Also and most importantly an admittion that the US has long known about Peak Oil.

[the machine]

Currently, we're producing about 5.1 million barrels of oil per day. We will go under half of the oil production of 1970, 37 years later, sometime in the middle of next year. Now this is staggering because, in addition to that, the United States Department of Energy - and I don't know how they got this past Phillip Kooning, Bobby - offered a paper describing the mitigation of oil peak downside, meaning that, after the production of oil slips below half of the peak production, at that point the energy return on energy investment becomes negative


The above bit is from TOD. The talk is about the US peaking in 1970 and next year will be down to half where ROEI becomes negative.Also and most importantly an admittion that the US has long known about Peak Oil.


digger, never mond what TOD says, what we want is the sp of nzo ppp & awe to reflect their proper value reletive to the market.
10n barrels for tui is there next week

all 3 shares way under value and we need to sell some ppp so can pay our tax bill

was hoping the tax bill would be higher but mr market has thought otherwise

M

[duncan macgregor]

baited breath everyone....

MacDOH predicts the ASX will go down Monday!

down 100 points




new name = Mac Nostro HEY SECTOR whats happened to all my mates on the NZO thread why have they all gone quiet?.
I would bleat on about peak oil or the price of it in a falling yankey dollar if i were you to cheer them up. This is not the big crash, its only an ever increasing rumble coming up to the big one at the end of the year. Only three months to play pass the parcel, which is starting to look like a non event. Look forward to meeting some of you noggers at the national convention. Macdunk

[duncan macgregor]

you being a builder and all maca, they probably to scared that you`ve been nailing NOGs all your life
IF YOU DONT STOP RUNNING ROUND IN CIRCLES I WILL NAIL YOUR OTHER BLOODY FOOT TO THE FLOOR. Who knows you might be living in a macdunk house in Brisbane Sector, I built a few there. Macdunk

[STRAT]

I tell you what Dunkin...if if you dont have longish hair, scruffy beard, jandals (at least at home) then the first macs ale is on me...Why is it whenever i picture you is that you remind me of billy connellylol, You are so far off the mark Nita I recon you might have to make that a bottle of scotch;)

Good on you for coming along. See you there :D

[Nitaa]

your kidding? dont tell me the the guy is clean shaven, no freckles, glasses (computer nerdy type) tie bigger than his chest. or

Mr Dunkin is actually talll dar and handsome. Somehow i dont think i am Dunkins type

[STRAT]

your kidding? dont tell me the the guy is clean shaven, no freckles, glasses (computer nerdy type) tie bigger than his chest. or

Mr Dunkin is actually talll dar and handsome. Somehow i dont think i am Dunkins typeyes, yes, no, hell no, no and he will sweep you off your feet:cool:;)



:D

[Chippie]

Oil stocks ought to be boiling again
By TERRY HALL - The Dominion Post
Younger investors would not believe the oil frenzy that captured the country's imagination back in 1981.
http://www.stuff.co.nz/4443018a1865.html

[peterfindlay]

digger, never mond what TOD says, what we want is the sp of nzo ppp & awe to reflect their proper value reletive to the market.
10n barrels for tui is there next week
......
M

Based on 9.6 m to 12 March 2008, and production of 40 - 45,000 barrels per day, 10 m should be achieved some time on or between 20 - 22 March 2008. In due course, I expect that we will hear about this achievement.

[Unicorn]

Based on 9.6 m to 12 March 2008, and production of 40 - 45,000 barrels per day, 10 m should be achieved some time on or between 20 - 22 March 2008. In due course, I expect that we will hear about this achievement.

It is looking like the first year of Tui production will deliver about half of the estimated total lifetime output from the field that the FID was based on. All of this sold at prices far in excess of the original budget. And then there will still be as much remaining as was originally estimated to be there! A fantastic project, by any measure.

[Nitaa]

It is looking like the first year of Tui production will deliver about half of the estimated total lifetime output from the field that the FID was based on. All of this sold at prices far in excess of the original budget. And then there will still be as much remaining as was originally estimated to be there! A fantastic project, by any measure.Your correct Unicorn.

I am interested in your views on Pike. This has been something of a nemisis for nzo for a long time. In saying that, Pike now is becoming a reality. Apat from my holdings in nzo i am not exposed to Pike as i always saw it as a higher risk stock. Your views please.

ps. i am convinced that Kupe is looking better and better all the time and will more of a company maker than Tui

[digger]

Your correct Unicorn.

I am interested in your views on Pike. This has been something of a nemisis for nzo for a long time. In saying that, Pike now is becoming a reality. Apat from my holdings in nzo i am not exposed to Pike as i always saw it as a higher risk stock. Your views please.

ps. i am convinced that Kupe is looking better and better all the time and will more of a company maker than Tui


Hi Nita. I love your evening wear.

With the current world wide frenzy into commodities,i think PIKE will surge once coal is producted.Note today is a crazy day when everything went down as always seems to happen when people are scared. In the next few days they will return and pick up the baby that was Kicked out today with the bath water as the saying goes.

[KiwiBear]

Keep dreaming the price up folks, like surfin waves backwards LOL

[bermuda]

Oil stocks ought to be boiling again
By TERRY HALL - The Dominion Post
Younger investors would not believe the oil frenzy that captured the country's imagination back in 1981.
http://www.stuff.co.nz/4443018a1865.html

Thanks Chippie. Good article.
Believe you me NZO has a lot going for it.

[the machine]

from nzo website

Production Performance (since 30 July 2007)
As at 17 March 2008: Approx 9.8 million barrels produced, 9.4 million barrels shipped.
NZOG's share of production to date: Approx 1.23 million barrels.

the 10m barrels is getting closer.

If it is reached this fri/sat - will they be allowed to annouce it as markets closed?

M

[COLIN]

What's so special about 10m barrels? Is there a special bonus for the directors and management, or something?

[arjay]

What's so special about 10m barrels? Is there a special bonus for the directors and management, or something?

Speaking of which, does anyone know what that criptic announcement was a couple of days ago about a special dividend? (the one that had nothing to do with the 5c already announced).

[Nitaa]

significant milestone

[dsurf]

Speaking of which, does anyone know what that criptic announcement was a couple of days ago about a special dividend? (the one that had nothing to do with the 5c already announced).

It is to do with the supplementary div paid to overseas based holders

[Chippie]

Thanks Chippie. Good article.
Believe you me NZO has a lot going for it.

I believe you! Started buying NZO at 26 cents and have not looked back (I am glad I did not listen to my broker on NZO)

Picked up another 50K in rights issues last year ( which included 1xNZOOD for every NZO). currently up 25% in 1 year on that decision so not complaining.

Sold all my GPG, FPH, FPA, TWR amogst others a few years back and pretty much have 90% of my portfolio in NZO and PRC. In todays climate I think I could have done a lot worse :)

[bermuda]

I believe you! Started buying NZO at 26 cents and have not looked back (I am glad I did not listen to my broker on NZO)

Picked up another 50K in rights issues last year ( which included 1xNZOOD for every NZO). currently up 25% in 1 year on that decision so not complaining.

Sold all my GPG, FPH, FPA, TWR amogst others a few years back and pretty much have 90% of my portfolio in NZO and PRC. In todays climate I think I could have done a lot worse :)

Chippie,
You are a good man.Reminds me when I sold a whole lot of rubbish and put the lot on NZO!!!...and that was at 26 cents!!
Hey, I have sold down a lot to get into some very exciting CSM plays in Queensland. BOW, VPE ,RPM etc. But I still have a 100k for sentiments sake and after having had dinner with Salisbury and the Directors...I am so glad I did.

This is fast turning into a class company.

[Crypto Crude]

thanks for that article Chippie...
Little CUE energy gets more of a mention than mighty NZO...
CUE is One of my favourite oilers... it has an exciting year and it has held up very well recently...
We have many oil stocks falling around us and yet NZO is up and CUE is the more of less the same... cant complain...
Next major NZ production of Maari is coming up later this year so put CUE on your watch list...
I am looking to get a position in CUE (at some stage) B4 production, after being in and out a few times over the last 4-5 years.....
Later...
:cool:
.^sc

[bermuda]

thanks for that article Chippie...
Little CUE energy gets more of a mention than mighty NZO...
CUE is One of my favourite oilers... it has an exciting year and it has held up very well recently...
We have many oil stocks falling around us and yet NZO is up and CUE is the more of less the same... cant complain...
Next major NZ production of Maari is coming up later this year so put CUE on your watch list...
I am looking to get a position in CUE (at some stage) B4 production, after being in and out a few times over the last 4-5 years.....
Later...
:cool:
.^sc

Hey Shrewdy,
Albers is brilliant mate. This stock has a lot of credibility but there are a lot of others out there with more leverage.

It wont be a problem ( I saw the videos at the conference) but I just hate getting involved in subsea heating.

A little tip for anyone wanting to make a 30% gain.
Buy Octanex.Another Albers masterstroke. DYOR and you will see why.Not on the main board. Believe me guys, I know all about this one. I havent got any but we all deserve a few tips and this one is for you. Not a ramp. Just a matter of fact and sharing the info for anyone interested.

Still waiting on AKK? Glad I stuck with VPE over the last week.
Cheers my AMIGO!!

Disc NZO,PRC, BAS ( Albers ),BOW, PES, RPM( beautiful ), VPE, VPEO.

[STRAT]

Whats the ticker for Octanex Brermuda? Couldnt find it on the ASX :confused:

[bermuda]

Whats the ticker for Octanex Brermuda? Couldnt find it on the ASX :confused:

Sorry, meant to mention it aint on the main ASX. Suggest you google and have a look.This is Albers at his best. DYOR.. Lightly traded but keep nibbling. this has got upside.

[the machine]

[QUOTE=COLIN;190283]What's so special about 10m barrels? Is there a special bonus for the directors and management, or something?[/QUOTE

expect
tui partners will make a big announcement
ppp will highlight their 1m share
nz gov't making a big issue out of it
a lot of press coverage in nz and selected oil publications
sp goes up

Please remind me in 2 weeks time what happenned

M

[trackers]

Bermuda, you out there?

What's your take on the upcoming Momoho drill in May? Would expect to make a serious killing on the options if it encounters signifcant hydrocarbons

[bermuda]

Bermuda, you out there?

What's your take on the upcoming Momoho drill in May? Would expect to make a serious killing on the options if it encounters signifcant hydrocarbons

Hi Trackers,
Just been for a jog around the Wanaka foreshore. Man it's nice down here.
Anyway my take on the Kupe project is
1.The drilling and pipelaying has gone better than expected
2.The Onshore facilities are coming along nicely
3.More than two thirds of the revenue will come from the liquids.
4.The pipeline has 3 times the required capacity because they are confident of further finds in the CFA and at Momoho.I would be guessing but a strike at Momoho could lead to a total area upgrade of at least 50%. With comparitively little extra capital cost.

Am going up there next week so will keep my eyes and ears open.
Cheers mate.

[trackers]

Hi Trackers,
Just been for a jog around the Wanaka foreshore. Man it's nice down here.
Anyway my take on the Kupe project is
1.The drilling and pipelaying has gone better than expected
2.The Onshore facilities are coming along nicely
3.More than two thirds of the revenue will come from the liquids.
4.The pipeline has 3 times the required capacity because they are confident of further finds in the CFA and at Momoho.I would be guessing but a strike at Momoho could lead to a total area upgrade of at least 50%. With comparitively little extra capital cost.

Am going up there next week so will keep my eyes and ears open.
Cheers mate.

Cheers Bermuda,

I'll be down that way tomorrow through Easter for a spot of R&R - Hope the nice weather keeps up!

[bermuda]

Cheers Bermuda,

I'll be down that way tomorrow through Easter for a spot of R&R - Hope the nice weather keeps up!

Would have been good to have a quick beer at the Speights Alehouse but have to return early. MIL has broken her hip.Not looking good.

Enjoy the Airshow and the big Globemaster. Weather is perfect.

Bush's enthusiasm for the US economy reminds me of his enthusiasm when he announced that IRAQ was now free. ..and that was over 4 years ago. what a dipstick.

NZO is going really well with alot of support starting to come from across the Tasman.

[trackers]

Good stuff, good result...good upgrade



19 March 2008
TEN MILLION BARRELS OF TUI OIL

Another production milestone is about to be reached by the highly successful Tui
oilfields off the coast of Taranaki.
New Zealand Oil and Gas Ltd (NZOG) is the New Zealand-based partner in the
Tui Area Oil Fields, with a 12.5% stake.
This morning total production to date had reached 9.93 million barrels and the 10
millionth barrel of Tui oil is expected to flow tomorrow or Friday. The production
milestone comes less than eight months after production began on 30 July last
year.

The field performance has continued to be better than forecast, with production in
February averaging 44,000 barrels of oil per day. Associated water is being
produced from the field, but this continues to be at lower rates than expected from
original field simulation models, allowing the high oil production rate to continue for
longer than anticipated.
Since the start of production a total of 30 shipments of crude oil have been lifted,
with the 31st lifting scheduled for today. The oil is sold into the east coast of
Australia or southeast Asia and is typically sold against the Tapis benchmark,
which is currently over US$110 a barrel.

The strong field performance since the start of production has led to a
further upwards revision of Tui’s oil production target for the year to 30 June
2008, to 13 million barrels. NZOG’s share is over 1.6 million barrels.
The pre-production forecast for the 2007/08 year was less than 10 million barrels;
with NZOG’s share around 1.2 million barrels.

Tui’s proved and probable (2P) reserves were revised upwards by approximately
50% in November 2007 to 41.7 million barrels. Based on the continued
performance of the reservoirs, the operator AWE is initiating a further reserves
review to match field performance against actual and expected production. This is
expected to be completed by the end of June 2008.
NZOG Chief Executive David Salisbury said Tui continues to deliver good news.
“The combination of record international oil prices, outstanding production
performance and a 50% increase in reserves, has made Tui an extremely
profitable investment”.

Tui is New Zealand’s largest oil producer and has helped set new export records
for the country since production began.
ENDS

[Drone]

Tui upgrade coming people, looking very good value at these levels..

Disc: Long NZO

[digger]

Tui upgrade coming people, looking very good value at these levels..

Disc: Long NZO

Two things remain outstanding with TUI. 1/ A long long time ago before TUI started producing i got a passing comment that the total recoverable could be up to 60 million.That is the figure i suspect it will somewhere end up at. But do not quote me it is just what my unspported gut feeling has clung to.
2/ The second question i have asked before,here and to personal managment is that when TUI water cut kicks in to the preproduction expectation over the whole field,at that piont we should have 27.8 million barrels left. It seems a reasonable question to me as some thought went into modling it in the first place.

Yes Tui is proforming way beyond expectations,given especially that only 3 of the 4 wells are producing.Also these three were being chocked back.


Kupe is probably similiary given out small promise so as to later be able to have the same TUI type large delivery.No doubt 8months after KUPE has started producing we will be reading the same type of upgrades from that well.Also by this time next year WTI will be about 150+
Cheers all and have a good easter

[Drone]

$1.7m through the market which is decent for NZO, some heavy seller though just after the release at 125c, strange I would have thought to have good news come out (on the upgrade not the 10m - we knew about that) and someone then come on the market and dumps around $250k worth.

Will be interesting to see where it closes

Also does anyone know a good site to get the current Tapis price?

[manxman]

$1.7m through the market which is decent for NZO, some heavy seller though just after the release at 125c, strange I would have thought to have good news come out (on the upgrade not the 10m - we knew about that) and someone then come on the market and dumps around $250k worth.

Will be interesting to see where it closes

Also does anyone know a good site to get the current Tapis price?

All good news except for the big who seller spooked the market at least for the moment.

http://www.aip.com.au/pricing/marketwatch.htm gives Tapis and refined products in $Aus an $US.

Now where is the corkscrew? Got a wee celebration to have.

Mx

[zac]

Enthusiasm for AWE and revised production estimates

off the wire:

Australian Worldwide Exploration Ltd (ASX: AWE.ax) rose 6.9 percent to A$3.24.

The firm said its key Tui oil project in New Zealand is set to produce its 10 millionth barrel of crude oil this week.

AWE also revised its fiscal 2008 oil production target for Tui to 13 million barrels. It had said on Jan. 31 gross oil production from Tui fields was likely to exceed 12 million barrels.

[Lion]

Also does anyone know a good site to get the current Tapis price?

http://www.upstreamonline.com/market_data/?id=markets_oil

[MPC]

Hopefully time to start to feel some confidence in my little bag of options. Plenty of time left though.
By the way, have fun in Wanaka this weekend guys. you won't see us locals, we all leave when the outsiders start to arrive.

[neopole]

could it be possible that the "dry" wells that were recently drilled are not economical because the oil has migrated to the tui area?

[tim23]

Useful annoucement today; still hold my options, Duncan is right clock is ticking but I figure its worth holding as I only have about 20,000 of them.

[the machine]

ZAC, awe look like also found gas in indonesia [and could be quite a lot of it]which has helped their sp.


As regards the pre 10m production announcement, that will probably allow partners to issue further announcements over the easter break [if they want to] without being in violation of the stock exchange rules.
It allows the press to have a bit of a feeding frenzy with comments from nzo as well.
Helen and co will want to cash in on this as well and the pre 10m barrels announcement clears the way for that.

Commissioning work into the new reserves estimate is really good news as one would expect awe would only be doing it with the expectation of a decent increase [ ie not a small increase either].

Pre production it was mooted 1/3 of total oil would be produced in first 12 months, thus with still 4 months production to come, if this theory holds true then an extra 5-6 m barrels produced by july 30 = 15-16 m being the 1/3 = 45 - 48m barrels.

with the ability to keep one of the production holes offline and still maintain production of 44,000 barrels per day, am curious what happens to hole that is offline.
will the oil/water level even out again over a period of time - if so how long?
this is counter the effect of water coning.
That assumes it has already been used for production and encountered a water cut.

an alternative could be in due course one of the 3 producing holes now is taken offline in a few months to see if oil/water level evens out.

remember eric mathews had said the tui sands were so good that they don't really come any better, so could the oil displace water that has "coned"?

M

[trackers]

Dear Subscriber

NZOG has released this week's Kupe Drilling disclosure. The KS-8 well has reached its planned final depth. Elevated gas shows were encountered. KS-6 and KS-8 have both now reached final depth.

KUPE DEVELOPMENT WELLS DISCLOSURE NOTICE


New Zealand Oil & Gas Ltd (NZOG) advises that at 14:00 hours on 19 March, the top of the
reservoir (Farewell Formation) in the Kupe South 8 (KS-8) well has been intersected with
elevated gas shows. Coring operations have been completed and the 8-1/2 inch section
drilled to a planned final depth of 3,834m MDRT (measured depth from rotary table).
Reservoir evaluation logs will now be run and upon completion, it is planned to set and
cement the 5 inch liner.

[COLIN]

Great buying opportunities today!

[Steve]

Great buying opportunities today!

Still with the dividend too!

[the machine]

seem to recall several years back when nzo were short of development $ andsold 4% of kupe to mitsui there was a provision that nzo could buy it back.

one wonders if that might happen as part of nzo's push to increase reserves.

M

[Nitaa]

Price of oil has taken a hit the last couple of days. I am quite surprised it has taken this long before we se any sort of retracement. It was only a few weeks ago oil came from $100 down to $90 then way up to around $110. Its a very volatile market and imo we could see oil slip down down as far as $80.

12 months ago we as nzo shareholders would have taken a sure thing of $80 to $100 at this time. Now we are seeing even better. Expect rocky road to continue but much of the money is in the bank and nzo shareholders are starting to smile.

[Steve]

12 months ago we as nzo shareholders would have taken a sure thing of $80 to $100 at this time. Now we are seeing even better. Expect rocky road to continue but much of the money is in the bank and nzo shareholders are starting to smile.

Became a NZO shareholder during the rights-trading weakness 12 months ago and HAVE been smiling ever since... :)

[gambier33]

seem to recall several years back when nzo were short of development $ andsold 4% of kupe to mitsui there was a provision that nzo could buy it back.

M

No detail in NZO's 3 Feb 2004 stock exchange releases on what the "special conditions" were that would permit them to buy back 2.5%, and how the price would be determined. They sold the 4% for NZ$9.2 million, which seems cheap now.

[bermuda]

=Nita;190821]Price of oil has taken a hit the last couple of days. I am quite surprised it has taken this long before we se any sort of retracement. It was only a few weeks ago oil came from $100 down to $90 then way up to around $110. Its a very volatile market and imo we could see oil slip down down as far as $80.

12 months ago we as nzo shareholders would have taken a sure thing of $80 to $100 at this time. Now we are seeing even better. Expect rocky road QUOTE;
oil last 3 days has only decreased in value in sympathy with (world wide increase <> derease in$value.) in NZ$ CASE NOW MINUS 79C COMPARED TO 82CENT 3 WEEKS AGO so in actual fact nzog is getting more now :confused:;);)

Every time I see oil retrace I think of Matt Simmons "Twilight in the Desert"

Probably ( in history ) one of the most powerful books that will ever be written.
Saw a documentary on its making. Fascinating and now published in at least 3 languages. English, Chinese, and German. All from an author that in the conceptual stages couldnt get a publisher!

Anything can happen in this world.We could see $60 again if emotion takes over.But rest assured it goes higher.

A FINITE PRECIOUS RESOURCE!!!!

[Lion]

Malcolm, I have no idea what you are trying to say here.
I have put you on my ignore list.
Why do you type in capitals so often?

[Nitaa]

kupe gas has on all accounts has :D:D:D could be big $$$late thurs/fri27/28Bricks.. is that you? I actually had you pegged on your very first post. Guess what? It wasnt through your capital letters either.

[Steve]

As long as the oil price stays up while NZO is pumping it out...

[the machine]

worked out how many barrels 44,000/day means to me - with nzo/ppp combined holding= 2.5/day or 17.5 barrels/week.

the value of that after production cost is a lot more rthan we get paid every week.


on another note any idea which hole is off line at tui? as curious -

M

[Wilkins_Micawber]

worked out how many barrels 44,000/day means to me - with nzo/ppp combined holding= 2.5/day or 17.5 barrels/week.

the value of that after production cost is a lot more rthan we get paid every week.

M

Interesting point - worked it out another way. In rough figures, at a value of say $100NZD per barrel, the income for NZOs 1/8th share of 13 million barrels to end of June 08 (or is it July?) is worth approx 1/2 of the current share price. I hadn't realised until now just how much my gross income is nowadays :) - just hope enough of it finds it's way to me :rolleyes:

[AMR]

NZO is a nice uptrend still. It will be good to buy on the dips, the closer to the trendline the better.

http://img182.imageshack.us/img182/3760/nzo23032008ku3.png

[Steve]

AMR, shouldn't you be using the MACDUNK 30day MA with NZO?! ;)

[bermuda]

AMR, shouldn't you be using the MACDUNK 30day MA with NZO?! ;)

AMR,
Interesting trend line. What happens when coking coal gets contracted at $US300 a tonne? Or has your graph already allowed for that?

This stock has a lot of upside.

[airedale]

By [buy] all means, buy if it gets back to the trend line, but be prepared to buy when it breaks out and makes new highs above about $1.33.
I think that may happen before it gets back to the trend line.
Discl: holding NZO

[skeet]

Bought options last week, in NZO. Unsure how they will go but looking at holding for a resonable amount of time.

[777]

Reasonable amount of time?

Do you realize they expire in less than 14 weeks.

[bermuda]

Reasonable amount of time?

Do you realize they expire in less than 14 weeks.

Nice!!!

I am sure he knows ????

I tell you what, there is just a chance they will be in the money.

Watch out for the coking coal price and the Momoho drill.(positives)....and for the market.( negative)

[winner69]

Reasonable amount of time?

Do you realize they expire in less than 14 weeks.

How time flies ....... only 14 weeks until pass the parcel finishes ..... amazing

[Tok3n]

How time flies ....... only 14 weeks until pass the parcel finishes ..... amazing

reckon, even another Tui upgrade aren't going to bring those options into the money.

[Mick100]

reckon, even another Tui upgrade aren't going to bring those options into the money.


I rate them as a 50/50 chance of being in the money - that's pretty good odds considering the price of the options. If NZO can breakthrough 1.32 resistance there'll be no stopping the rise in shareprice - could go all the way to $2.00;)

[Crypto Crude]

Does anyone have an idea of when The Kupe Development wells will be completed... Completion is sometime in the 2nd quarter, but when?
IMO option conversion will depend on the chances of Momoho completion in time... I would now only recommend nzood if momoho came through in time...
NZO is cheap regardless...
NZO was the 6th best performing stock on the NZX50 in 2007...
safe bet would be to buy NZO...
No need to be safe in this market, play hard ball and rip profits from the market when ever you make them... make sure you can re-enter when this is all over...
Mick, you have made a safe call on Nzood chances...
you cant be a giraffe if you dont put your neck on the line...
:cool:
.^sc

[skeet]

The date to take up $1.50 options is June 30th. I know its a risk buying them this late but hey you say... "you cant be a giraffe if you dont put your neck on the line..." ;)

[the machine]

Does anyone have an idea of when The Kupe Development wells will be completed... Completion is sometime in the 2nd quarter, but when?
IMO option conversion will depend on the chances of Momoho completion in time... I would now only recommend nzood if momoho came through in time...
NZO is cheap regardless...
NZO was the 6th best performing stock on the NZX50 in 2007...
safe bet would be to buy NZO...
No need to be safe in this market, play hard ball and rip profits from the market when ever you make them... make sure you can re-enter when this is all over...
Mick, you have made a safe call on Nzood chances...
you cant be a giraffe if you dont put your neck on the line...
:cool:
.^sc

guess is in about 2 weeks to complete kupe, then shift the rig.
weather can be a big factor in shifting jackups so spud in mid April if lucky- 2 weeks prior to the quarterly that could add 25c to the sp.

Momoho is testing each side of a fault line and should be complete by end of may.

Once the sp gets a kick from the quarterly at end of april and oc's look like being in the money, then coulpled with Momoho [and prc] then will be in for some exciting times.


the quarterly and prc could drive sp past $1.50 by june 30 - even if Momoho is a dud.
pending reserves review by june 30 is to late to have a bearing.

will be holding nzo and my oc's throughout Momoho.

M

so Momoho could spud by mid april if they have to shift the rig

[bermuda]

Does anyone have an idea of when The Kupe Development wells will be completed... Completion is sometime in the 2nd quarter, but when?
IMO option conversion will depend on the chances of Momoho completion in time... I would now only recommend nzood if momoho came through in time...
NZO is cheap regardless...
NZO was the 6th best performing stock on the NZX50 in 2007...
safe bet would be to buy NZO...
No need to be safe in this market, play hard ball and rip profits from the market when ever you make them... make sure you can re-enter when this is all over...
Mick, you have made a safe call on Nzood chances...
you cant be a giraffe if you dont put your neck on the line...
:cool:
.^sc

Shrewdy,
I am going up to see Kupe on Friday so will let you know all the detail on Saturday.

Going to be an interesting week.Some Americans think the market has bottomed. What a laugh.

[Crypto Crude]

thanks Machine and bermuda.....
I will do some research on Momoho and tell you all what I think
....
:cool:
.^sc

[arjay]

Only the very blue-eyed would now have faith that Momoho and the next quarterly would lift the heads enough to give value to the ODs. The next quaterly might stimulate a few cents per share of interest if it is a impressive as the last quaterly (and we can predict it will be with no real surprises on the positive side). Similarly, the best Momoho can be expected to deliver within the short time frame of the next 14 weeks is something like: "an x-metre oil column has been intersected, the data will be evaluated over the next few months to determine the commercial viability of the discovery".

The ODs will now only get exercised if there is a massive short-term upgrade of NZO in the eyes of the market (IMO unlikely), or a share buy-back (perhaps more likely?).

[BigBob]

The ODs will now only get exercised if there is a massive short-term upgrade of NZO in the eyes of the market (IMO unlikely), or a share buy-back (perhaps more likely?).


Or if they get extended......

[arjay]

Or if they get extended......

Is this now possible? Such a move would be market sensitive, so if NZO have plans to extend the ODs they would have had to notify the market by now. Alternatively, if they are about to do so would they not need a valid reason for an extension? 'Lack of market appreciation of NZO's true worth' might not cut the mustard with regulators. Can anyone cast light on the legal constraints (if any) of extending options?

[arjay]

Or if they get extended......

Is this now possible? Such a move would be market sensitive, so if NZO have plans to extend the ODs they would have had to notify the market by now. Alternatively, if they are about to do so would they not need a valid reason for an extension? 'Lack of market appreciation of NZO's true worth' might not cut the mustard with regulators. Can anyone cast light on the legal constraints (if any) of extending options?

[Steve]

It is unlikely that the options can/will be extended this late in the running.

Anyone thinking that they could be, are probably an existing holder looking for a reason to be still holding them...

[BigBob]

Is this now possible? Such a move would be market sensitive, so if NZO have plans to extend the ODs they would have had to notify the market by now. Alternatively, if they are about to do so would they not need a valid reason for an extension? 'Lack of market appreciation of NZO's true worth' might not cut the mustard with regulators. Can anyone cast light on the legal constraints (if any) of extending options?

Don't really know what the rules are - but they did extend the NOGOB's.... from memory you were asked to pay something like 2c per option to convert to NOGOC's, which effectively extended them for a couple of years. The strike price was increased as well - I think from 50c to 60c...

As for a reason - how about...: "Due to the extreme volatility of current markets, we do not believe that the intrinsic value of the company is reflected in the current share price....."

[BigBob]

It is unlikely that the options can/will be extended this late in the running.

Anyone thinking that they could be, are probably an existing holder looking for a reason to be still holding them...

I don't actually think they will be extended, I am only pointing out that it's happened before and it may happen again....

[Mr Tommy]

Just had an idea, buy some NOG before 4 April to get your 5c, equivalent to about 4% return.
This will pay the interest bill for roughly 5 months to buy some shares, plenty of time for Pike to hit coal, and Kupe to drill their exploration well, and Tui to possibly be upgraded.
So quite a cheap (free ?) way to increase your exposure.

[AMR]

Bermuda : The uptrend is only in the beginning stages in my opinion, and could accelerate further. Things will really begin in earnest after they crack $1.35.

[Anubis]

Closed at $106.

[trackers]

Interim report out, sp testing 1.30

[777]

Interim report out, sp testing 1.30

It is only the printed version of what was announced a month ago so its publication will not affect the price.

[zorba]

.
US oil inventories down again ??

http://data.tradingcharts.com/intraday_charts/charts/ead8a8080ae1d9c1ad43d00920c1d80c.png?20109773

[Paddie]

By [buy] all means, buy if it gets back to the trend line, but be prepared to buy when it breaks out and makes new highs above about $1.33.
I think that may happen before it gets back to the trend line.
Discl: holding NZO

Hi Airedale

Lets hope for a strong performance by the DOW, and NZO could be testing new highs.

Paddie

[digger]

Three times so far, Bilo. ??Coming up to a fourth??

Buying opportunities are found at support, not resistance.

A clear break above previous resistance is Bullish and often taken as a Buy signal.

Phaedrus,looks like resistance will be tested again shortly.Although with the x date for the dividend at end of next week it would seem to me we should take that off the SP,so this current coming up to resistance must be illusionary.Is that how you see it?I find your charts very interesting Phaedrus but as a fundamentalist I do not make any use of them.They nevertheless give some insight as to how other traders and investers are reacting to the company. Keep posting.

[neopole]

a co-ordinated take over bid.


how it could work......
buy and sell shares on the open market to keep the sp below the strike price of $1.50 right up until exercise date of the option.
from 2 weeks out start buying all the worthless options as no one will excercise them.
to do this takes deep pockets, but NZO is worth way more than $1.50 in 2 years time, so losing a bit now to gain control would be a coup indeed.
GPG is still sitting on a huge war chest, and the directors have clashed before.

if anyone was going to do a take over, and not send the sp though the roof, this would seem to be the only way.

and the sp does seem to be played with.........

any thoughts?

[Steve]

Plausable theory, but highly unlikely...

[digger]

a co-ordinated take over bid.


how it could work......
buy and sell shares on the open market to keep the sp below the strike price of $1.50 right up until exercise date of the option.
from 2 weeks out start buying all the worthless options as no one will excercise them.
to do this takes deep pockets, but NZO is worth way more than $1.50 in 2 years time, so losing a bit now to gain control would be a coup indeed.
GPG is still sitting on a huge war chest, and the directors have clashed before.

if anyone was going to do a take over, and not send the sp though the roof, this would seem to be the only way.

and the sp does seem to be played with.........

any thoughts?

Lets resay what i think you are saying. I assume you mean that in the last few weeks this company X sells most or all there heads below $1-50 and buys options. They then exercise all options thereby owning far more heads after conversion than before. As you say in the very short run this would make a small loss,but a hugh gain if companyX were to try to accuire all options. CompanyX would then own 1/3 of NZO..
Good scheme but lets be practical. The hugh volumn of last two week trading would alert some fairly shrewd holders and that would put the immediate breaks on acquiring all options.My quess is that about 70% of the options could be obtained this way before the open secert got out. That is still a large volumn and if companyX with deep pockets gives it a go could well end up with holding 100million heads or about 1/4 of NZO after 30 june.
The other big problem is that Momoho that lies between two discoveries has a very good chance of coming in successful,and the KUPE development assesment could be indicated for review befor that time.And lets not forget TUI regrade that is still out preforming all expectations.So for company X to do what you have suggested these things will have to all fall negative.
Still i do like the theory and it nevertheless has to be watched. And yes the coming option conversion will provide a once in a life time opportunity to stake build in a now proven successful company.

[skeet]

Going by that theory then buying NZOOD wouldnt be such a bad idea! ;) Im not holding my breath though.

[remy]

just out of interest is anyone here holding any nzo options?

[the machine]

just out of interest is anyone here holding any nzo options?

37,500

m

[zorba]

.
Iraq pipeline sabatage pushes up oil price:

.
http://futures.tradingcharts.com/intraday/CL_/58

[777]

Good solid buying in the run up to the dividend.

[Lion]

Announcement out on ASX but not NZX yet, saying they have almost finished Kupe development drill and will start Momoho in May, (but no date specified)
Positive spin to Momoho prospects, + possibilty of tying back to Kupe platform.
Looking good!

[Lion]

just out of interest is anyone here holding any nzo options?

thirty four thousand (I tried to put 34,000 but was told my message was too short! Hah! no one tells me it's too short and gets away with it)

[Ripping]

37,500

m

forty thou. + 50 thou heads

[skeet]

holding options here, not huge amount. Things possibly looking up for them

[KS]

The Kupe Joint Venture Media Release was read out on the 12:00 Radio news.

"The drilling at Momoho is planned to begin in May."

[Nitaa]

nzo reached its all time high? 1.35?

remember md when i said you system was flawed. Your system brough you in at $1.10, got biffed out at $1.11 after reaching $1.17. Your 5&#37; trailing stoip loss meant you broken even. Take way your stop loss and you are sitting on abouta 25% gain...crazy isnt it. The fundamentalist brought in at $1.00 and making a 35% gain

[AMR]

Stop losses aren't flawed, it's just that NZO needs a much wider stop due to volatility.

[Sehnsucht888]

Real resistance to go over that 1.35 mark. almost a million shares through today, and in a small band.
370K sitting in a buy for 1.32 is also nice to see.

Looks like there may be life in the options yet...



Disc: Holding both options and head shares

[digger]

Real resistance to go over that 1.35 mark. almost a million shares through today, and in a small band.
370K sitting in a buy for 1.32 is also nice to see.

Looks like there may be life in the options yet...



Disc: Holding both options and head shares

This SP upward movement looks like,feels like and even smells like KUPE. This morning out farming by myself always gives plenty of time to think and at 3-00 pm was not surprised to see SP hitting 1-35. However my thoughts are that as no field annalysis has been released on the KUPE drilling,if this current movement is KUPE it will not look good.Could very easily be seen as insider when it could be just catch up or a punt on Momoho.If the kupe production wells are better than expected this should be released to avoid insider benifit being laid later on. Just think the JVers should release as much as possible to avoid future problems. Just one of those things about a public company that you have to be aware of.

[Nitaa]

Stop losses aren't flawed, it's just that NZO needs a much wider stop due to volatility.I agree 100%. thats why i believe md's system fails on him

[Nitaa]

Stop losses aren't flawed, it's just that NZO needs a much wider stop due to volatility.I agree 100%. thats why i believe md's system fails on him.

Hey nice finish today...wait for the dows famous fridays bash though

[Phaedrus]

This updated chart shows todays breakout above the previous resistance at $1.32. The longer a trading range has persisted, the more significant the breakout, so this one can not be expected to be as strong as the two others shown here. Price action can (obviously) break out of a trading range in an upward or downward direction, but the On Balance Volume indicator gives a good clue as to which to expect. You can see that the two previous upside breakouts were accompanied or preceded by a rising OBV. Since NZO's OBV has been rising since mid January, we should not be at all surprised at this upward breakout.

As marked on the chart, a breakout from a trading range is regarded as a Buy signal, but anyone following this stock closely would probably have bought back in November at a dollar or so when NZO bounced off previous support, broke above a confirmed trendline and the OBV stopped falling and started rising.

You can see how the OBV plot provides useful confirmation of signals derived solely from price action - in fact, often the situation is much clearer when using trendlines drawn on the OBV. The rules are very simple. Buy when the OBV starts rising. Sell when the OBV starts falling. How simple is that?

Anyone using such a system would currently be holding NZO and would have made just 3 other trades in over 8 years - with a performance well in excess of simply "buying and holding" this stock.

http://h1.ripway.com/Phaedrus/NZO328.gif

Digger, don't worry about an aberrant "step" in the price plot when NZO goes "ex div". The usual practice is to correct the price data for events like this by lowering all historical prices by the amount of the dividend.


My pick thanks again to Phaedrus's post is to short -
Let's hope you didn't, KB! To short an uptrending stock with an intact confirmed trendline and a rising OBV would not be a smart move.

[Oiler]

Shrewdy,
I am going up to see Kupe on Friday so will let you know all the detail on Saturday.

Going to be an interesting week.Some Americans think the market has bottomed. What a laugh.

Bermuda was that you flying in the Red Barron, doing low level recconaisance flights over the Taranaki region this morning? :D

Very impressive eh !!

[tim23]

They only need to be about $1.60 to be exercised I'm holding mine!

[bermuda]

Bermuda was that you flying in the Red Barron, doing low level recconaisance flights over the Taranaki region this morning? :D

Very impressive eh !!

Oiler mate!! I thought of you!!. What a marvellous day and what a marvellous company.

The fish are starting to swim the other way.!!

I have waited so long to see the final product and we are so close. To be out there seeing the result of all this hard work in the middle of nowhere was quite memorable. I think back when I supported their potential at 26 cents and having to put up with so many knockers.

Oiler, thanks for that post. It was a great day.

As I said, a new Management that has got the fishes swimming the other way.

Thankyou NZO.

[robjb5]

Announcement out on ASX but not NZX yet, saying they have almost finished Kupe development drill and will start Momoho in May, (but no date specified)
Positive spin to Momoho prospects, + possibilty of tying back to Kupe platform.
Looking good!
Lion, I used to live in Rockinghorse Rd.( last century!!) is it still there or underwater by now??

[trackers]

Nice close, options very close to being in the money and are looking pretty cheap. In all probability its a dividend run up, but still nice to blast through previous resistance. Holding options

[bermuda]

Lion, I used to live in Rockinghorse Rd.( last century!!) is it still there or underwater by now??


Rockinghorse Rd is still there. Got engaged there quite a while ago. Wish the council would put a bridge across to Sumner. Would be a good loop.

Momoho will take 50 days to complete so let's hope it is a very early May start.

[tim23]

Malcolm - thats not what happened last time the options were exercised however they were in the money for a period prior to exercise.

I note you say in an earlier post there won;t be a takeover of NOG, not sure if you can say that can you?

[tim23]

Fair enough but I wonder if AWE might want a bigger share of the Tui project, perhaps NOG can takeover PPP and get up to 22.5% of the project?

[Crypto Crude]

Momoho Early May...
nzood's expiring 30-6-08 and Momoho in early May is just too close for me...
I was thinking about either Cobra or Momoho.... And now Im just going to watch both...
Momoho could be oil or gas...
.....
Yes New Zealand Oil and Gas is a great company...Im just slightly dissapointed about the whole dividend thingee...
Back in the 1970's and 1980's Multi billion dollar US Oil giants were scared to pay dividends, and many of them didnot even pay them in fear of lagging competitors... we had companies competing at such a level that all money was Ploughed back into the company...
Oil investment is and has always been about capital appreciation...
...
Dividends from NZO will become an expectation... I dont like the idea of not having every resource possible to grow a company...
lata...
:cool:
.^sc

[digger]

IT would be a HUGE boost if moimoi struck oil rather than gas;);)

Malcolm,for the first time in my life i am having a never before experience. And as well fancy me saying it,like me of all people. Sure your not just doing it to tease me.
Wait for the big one. Digger is going to point out that someone else has mispelled a word. Momoho is spelt mo----mo--ho.Very easy if i can get it. Not moi---moi.
Well now that was a new experience.

Now back to NZO. It will be a big lift if moi-moi or mo-mo-ho stricks anything.

[digger]

Shrewd, that last bit of yours about the merits or otherwise of paying a dividend has been debated for years. In all that long time i felt as you expressed it,but the nz market just does not agree.Brokers have told me they can never recomend a company that plans to never give anything back.Most NZ's will ask what div yield the company has.Warren Buffetts company has the worlds highest SP and they boost about never having payed a dividend. However after many years of holding the view you expressed i have had to accept the NZ reality that dividends are somewhat necessary,even if you are just playing games with yourself.
Also i am building a new house and the dividend will come in very handy on 15 April,but will not hang around long.

[the machine]

so the rig will have to be shifted to drill Momoho which can be quick of slow, all weather dependant. Me thinks [hoping] that the early may start has allowed for a couple of weeks of adverse weather.

Still wondering why no testing details of the 2 completed kupe production wells have been released, as was hoping would lift the sp.

maybe nz tax laws would then apply straight away, meaning the joint venture would have to start providing for tax even before production starts - its just a guess!


in case posters not aware, tui partner awe has had a big kick yesterday with pending successful oil appraisal and jumped 14c au [with more good news to come early next week re same] plus after market closed some very very very good news on a gas discovery in indonesia. one would expect awe will be in the spotlight next week, inturn tui and tui partners will gain further exposure.

details all on asx site and the roc announcement has a lot more detail than awe's

M

[Mick100]

Shrewd, that last bit of yours about the merits or otherwise of paying a dividend has been debated for years. In all that long time i felt as you expressed it,but the nz market just does not agree.Brokers have told me they can never recomend a company that plans to never give anything back.Most NZ's will ask what div yield the company has.Warren Buffetts company has the worlds highest SP and they boost about never having payed a dividend. However after many years of holding the view you expressed i have had to accept the NZ reality that dividends are somewhat necessary,even if you are just playing games with yourself.
Also i am building a new house and the dividend will come in very handy on 15 April,but will not hang around long.

Companies that pay a dividend in the US are effectively getting taxed twice - First the company pays the dividend out of after tax profits then the shareholder gets taxed again on the dividends. So it is very tax inefficient to pay a dividend in the US. However, this is not the case in NZ and OZ where we have imputation credits and franking credits, The company still pays the dividend out of after tax profits but the shareholder recieves a tax credit, for the amount of tax the company has already paid on those profits. So the profits are only taxed once.

Unless a company is sure it can get a better return on retained earnings than investors could get themselves on their reinvested dividends then it makes perfect sense for NZ/OZ companies to pay dividends. If a company thinks that it's growth prospects are good and it can get a good return on retained earnings then it can offer a DRIP program and let the shareholders decide wether they want their dividends reinvested in the company - which is what they do.

I think our system (NZ/OZ) is far superior to the US system

[Sumnerned]

Some great reading on this thread from the last couple of days, thanks folks.

Don't know about that Brighton/Sumner bridge tho. Maybe a foot and bike bridge could be good.

I have a few heads left and around 80k ODs.

Cheers

[Nitaa]

DIGGER ;IT WOULD BE a big lift if mo mo ho stricks any thing:DBricks.. how long have you been a nzo holder?

[777]

If Nita's question was addressed to Bricks then why did you answer it Malcolm?

[Balance]

????? Kinda careless ????

[Steve]

If Nita's question was addressed to Bricks then why did you answer it Malcolm?

BUSTED!!! :eek:

[bermuda]

took a while to recover from this dream, it was june a thursday evening 5.05 pm and there was a after (stock market closed) annoucement, from nog, pike coal seam now under production (excavating), tui upgraded 60million barrels (as DIGGER PREDICTED), MO MO HO has large oil collum.ps and i woke up (dry):):)

I dont think you were dreaming. You were priviledged to have had a wee early squint at future reality.

Really pleased I still have some and even more pleased that I put my brother onto them at 38 cents. I think his holding has gone past Digger's.

A lot of good news coming up.

[the machine]

bermuda, do you know which of the tui holes is being kept offline and also clarify why.

am guessing it is offline otherwise oil production would exceed 50,000 barrels and to fully explit one reservior they need to have the water coning to fully exploit capacity of fsop to handle high water cut from one hole and drain max oil from same hole.

appreciate any clarification

M

[bermuda]

bermuda, do you know which of the tui holes is being kept offline and also clarify why.

am guessing it is offline otherwise oil production would exceed 50,000 barrels and to fully explit one reservior they need to have the water coning to fully exploit capacity of fsop to handle high water cut from one hole and drain max oil from same hole.

appreciate any clarification

M

Hi, I think it is Pateke but I am not sure. If all 4 wells were onlline at the same time the production rate would be well in excess of 50,000 barrels of oil per day . The FPSO can only handle 50000 barrels per day. Hence the decision to operate from 3 wells only.

The FPSO can handle a maximum fluid volume of 120000 barrels per day which includes a maximum of 50000 barrels of oil. As the water cut increases they will eventually get to a final stage ( some years away ) where they might be pumping up 118000 barrels of water and only 2000 barrels of oil per day.

At the moment ( from 3 wells only ) they are processing about 100000 barrels of total fluids per day. 60000 of water and 40000 of oil.

NZO's share for 2008 will be 1.6 million bbls falling to about 0.75 million in 2009 as the water cut increases. However production should increase slightly in 2010 following the completion of Tui4h.., before decling to 0.2 in 2016.

Tui has gone outstandingly well for the JV. At some stage the fourth well will be brought on line...probably next year.

I dont think I have totally answered your question. As long as we can see the flare on the Umuroa and water being discharged then oil is being collected.

[Misc]

The JV does have plans to upgrade the FPSO to handle 180kpd fluids , current capacity is 110kpd. Not sure when/how this will occur , but it obviously means oil production should remain higher for longer.

Misc

[the machine]

thanks bermuda

M

[digger]

good news if its a fact 4th hole tui would come on trck and VALVE will open up:):):) ps yes 50000 plus would gush out. so glad my DREAM was not W--

Malcolm,pinch yourself-your awake.Do not get behind the reality. The alarm went off last August and and every poster here following this thread should have been fully awake by end of oct or nov. The TUI field is almost un believeably a top oil producer.Some of this good producer has been hided by a very conserative approach taken by the JVs.
If you can stay with this thread for another two years,you will see that my money is no TUI field getting to or topping 60 million recoverable barrels.Remember the JVs have removed from there assesment that Amokura and Pateke are a linked field or maybe even the same field. When Pateke was first drilled that was what was announced as the case as both had the same oil water demarkation level.After further seismic were done it was decided that a non oil layer was between the two fields.I have never accepted that as the seismic is rough and just not as final as a drill,otherwise no need for the drill. If production eventually turns up a lot more oil then as it seems to be doing then the case for at least a metre or two between the wells has more support.
So Malcolm we do not need dreams.The TUI reality rendered dreams to the dustbin.

[Misc]

Malcolm aka BRICKS also had a dream in late 2006 that AWF was a BUY at $1.50 ... so caution is recommended.

Misc

[Tok3n]

How is it possible for 60 million barrels recoverable when that was in the oil in place model?

100% recovery rate?

I think the best hope for the Tui fields, is discovering similar size pockets of easy to produce fields which can be tied back to existing infrastructure cheaply.

[Misc]

Resevior estimation is 'a needle in a haystack' hence P10/50/90 model. An example is the Bula field in Indo (google it) , estinmated at 6mmboip (from memory) and still going 23mmbbls later ... (gain figures may slightly be wrong but you get my gist). Remember we are working 4km below the sea floor ... 4kms!!
Malcolm: Washer gave me that info last week.

Rgds,
Misc

[digger]

How is it possible for 60 million barrels recoverable when that was in the oil in place model?

100% recovery rate?

I think the best hope for the Tui fields, is discovering similar size pockets of easy to produce fields which can be tied back to existing infrastructure cheaply.

No not 100% recovery,just the JVs being allround very consertive. 60 million was the origional inplace model which has had two upgrades since.Actually i do not remember every seeing a inplace upgrade that corresponds to the last recoverable figure of 41.5 million barrels.Also not that interested as i consider it to be revised again and again.It is just an intermitate figure that will soon expired its use by date.
Any nearby field discovery is an addon not counted in my 60 million.

This discussion reminds me of the cost guesses i went through with other workers on the Tongariro Hydro Scheme way back in the 60's. I put in at about 2.5 times the official govt figure,which was at the time considered so out of line that it nearly was not included. Remember i was one of the workers and so had a first hand view of progress. Let a few years go by and my figure is starting to look about right. Another two and the final figure has me the clostest but 30% too light.
So with this tui final recoverabe oil size it is not something that will be settled next week or next month.However in two years I will revived this figure and we will be somewhere near there.

Just in my humble opion[IMHO]. Not a buy recomendation.

[Crypto Crude]

malcolm-took a while to recover from this dream, it was june a thursday evening 5.05 pm and there was a after (stock market closed) annoucement, from nog, pike coal seam now under production (excavating), tui upgraded 60million barrels (as DIGGER PREDICTED), MO MO HO has large oil collum.ps and i woke up (dry)

Malcolm,
I once had a dream just like that but it was a scary dream... it happened after I went all in on MEO... The dream I had was a crashing MEO... a few days later I sold many of them, and then saw a 6mcf ann and sold the lot....
misc,
nice pick with GGX... If only that thread was more noticeable, I would have had a position...
....
Not a buy recommendation digger...
this stock is alittle beauty...
action just alittle slow for my liking...
Kupe has been 20years in the making...
In two years NZO will be above $2.50 per share (with Pike production)...
Or I will retire from shares forever...
:cool:
.^sc

[bermuda]

Malcolm,
I once had a dream just like that but it was a scary dream... it happened after I went all in on MEO... The dream I had was a crashing MEO... a few days later I sold many of them, and then saw a 6mcf ann and sold the lot....
misc,
nice pick with GGX... If only that thread was more noticeable, I would have had a position...
....
Not a buy recommendation digger...
this stock is alittle beauty...
action just alittle slow for my liking...
Kupe has been 20years in the making...
In two years NZO will be above $2.50 per share (with Pike production)...
Or I will retire from shares forever...
:cool:
.^sc

Gidday Shrewdy.
Shot an 80 yesterday. ( 18 holes )

I agree your $2.50 but a bit earlier. I am backing Kupe ( Momoho etc, etc , etc...there is a lot there ) Could be a veritable 'goldmine'. Still, I was wrong with Taranui and Tieke.

If Kupe et al is as big as I think it is then watch out for rapid appreciation. Momoho is a VERY important drill.

[Crypto Crude]

Bermuda,
Im about an 80 at ascot...
im usually aiming for a merc in the Car park...:rolleyes:....
Hey, ive got to be conserative with my time frame etc...
Ive got my career in shares on the line...haha...
Oh, and all Dividends paid have to be added back in before the end......
...
yes momoho looks the goods...
... I would describe it as a great play to make...if only OD's had a longer expiry then id make a position... The upside is a discovery, and the downside is protected by TUI production, and Kupe development...
These are the types of investments that individuals only dream of...
they just dont realise it...
:cool:
.^sc

[Crypto Crude]

Low down big up sort of stuff...
We got it with Hector and the other two wells...
All the downside was protected...
....
People just dont get it sometimes....
I put someone on a stock, and the stock had wildcat wells...
The stock is hedged and downside protected because it has other activities going on worth more than the market value of the stock... effectively the well is a free bonus...the well turns bad... the company goes sideways...
the investor wants returns...hits me up about it...
well I say to him...Look buddy, definition of an amazing stock is low down big up...
sometimes investors cannot grasp this idea when investing in oil stocks...
The oil stock in my example was...... anyone want to take a guess?....

probably took me a good few years to find a single oil stock with those characteristics...
now ive found quite a few of them...
The whole market thingee does throw some of these assumptions off abit...(eg, low down)...
Some of these stocks are so brilliant that it dont really matter what happens with the market...
buy what Bermuda buys...whats the old saying, 'keep it simple stupid'..
no probs here with a DOW fall of 100-200PTS...
a controlled fall is what we all want...
I say this because the bear has only just come out of hybernation...
Hes a hungry young fella too...
:cool:
.^sc

[the machine]

nzo earnings per share after production costs and before tax likely to be 25c for the quarter.
that should drive the sp past nz$1.50 by early may, before momoho drill.

inturn the options will have 7 weeks to run, so for at least until end of may, may infact pull the sp higher, something that the options have not done thus far.

M

[777]

31/03/2008
MINE

REL: 0902 HRS New Zealand Oil and Gas Limited

MINE: NZO: NZO - Momoho to be drilled

The joint venture partners in the Kupe Project have confirmed plans to
undertake exploration drilling of the Momoho prospect, 6 kilometres south of
the Kupe Central Field and within the Kupe permit area, off the coast of
Taranaki.

With drilling of the Kupe development wells nearing completion, the Kupe
joint venture is planning to test the Momoho prospect prior to releasing the
Ensco 107 drilling rig.

Momoho-1 will target a complex structural high situated between two previous
exploration wells: the Kupe South 4 non-commercial gas discovery, which lies
2.5 kilometres to the northwest and the Kupe South 5 non-commercial oil
discovery, which is 1.2 kilometres to the southeast.

The well will be drilled to a total depth of approximately 3150 metres with
primary reservoir targets in both the Farewell and Puponga Formations. The
Farewell Formation, the main hydrocarbon bearing zone at the Kupe Field, is
expected to be intersected at a depth of approximately 2850 metres.

In the event that Momoho is a commercial discovery it is possible that a
development may be able to be connected to the Kupe platform.

The drilling at Momoho is planned to begin in May.

[digger]

but the educated portfolio managers don,t have common sense (they are probably recomending bluechip@ finance co):):):)

Malcolm, that is too close to the truth to be aired in public.
See again that in todays presentation it reinterates that NZO has no exposure to the subprime,or i presume the nz finance market. That in itself is a recomendation.

[digger]

ALL THES SPs are transfers do you think digger( not meanning yours though:confused::confused:

Interesting todays and last fridays large volumn. Has nothing to do with me as mind were transfered weeks ago.

[digger]

Todays high turnover and record SP speakes volumns about where the SP is heading in the near future.Given PPP and AWE are not moving at the same pace i suspect KUPE is kicking in here.

[Unicorn]

nzo earnings per share after production costs and before tax likely to be 25c for the quarter.
that should drive the sp past nz$1.50 by early may, before momoho drill.

inturn the options will have 7 weeks to run, so for at least until end of may, may infact pull the sp higher, something that the options have not done thus far.

M

I think your 25 cps figure is overly optimistic, and a little misleading. NZO is more likely to headline Net Surplus, rather than EBT.

We know that NZO share of Tui production was 800,000 barrels at 31 December and 1,300,000 barrels at 31 March. So we have a fairly definite 500,000 barrels in the quarter.
Price after production costs appears to be around $93 US per barrel for the quarter, which is consistent with Tapis quotes and about $10 US in costs.
Exchange rate has probably averaged around .79.

So Tui income after production costs = 0.5 * 93 / .79 = $59M

Subtract Tui amortisation about $4.5M
Subtract Other Costs about $2.5M (assuming no exploration expenditure)
Add Net Interest income possibly $1M

Therefore EBT = $53M, or about 20 cps.

Tax losses of $21M in the quarter, so say $11M in tax.
Royalties on $42M = $8M

Gives a Net Surplus about $34M, being about 13 cps.

Add the $41M from the first half, and possibly $24M from the final quarter and it looks like $100M Net Surplus for the year is possible - although a lot can happen in a quarter. So we might hope for up to 38 cps earnings, which is a p/e around 3.5.

This assumes that the PRC investment remains on the books at under current value - there is another $26M or more of potential profit there already.

I doubt that the options will pull the heads higher only a few weeks before they expire - seeking $210M on a market cap around $350M is a very big ask.

[Mr Tommy]

Quote: Momoho-1 will target a complex structural high situated between two previous
exploration wells: the Kupe South 4 non-commercial gas discovery, which lies
2.5 kilometres to the northwest and the Kupe South 5 non-commercial oil
discovery, which is 1.2 kilometres to the southeast.

I am just wondering why people think Momoho will be good, when just north there was nothing, just south there was nothing. So there is just a gap of 3.7km between these 2 dry wells. What am I missing here?

[arjay]

Quote:
I am just wondering why people think Momoho will be good, when just north there was nothing, just south there was nothing. So there is just a gap of 3.7km between these 2 dry wells. What am I missing here?

I was wondering the same thing Mr Tommy, but then again you're not quite correct when you say nothing lies north and south. What was found north and south were non-commercial discoveries, which begs the question - are they still non-commercial in a $100+ per barrel environment?

[Sumnerned]

Thanks for asking that Mr T. I was looking at the map the other day and had the same question, but felt a bit foolish not knowing the answer!

There really doesn't seem much info out to make Momoho a really high probability, or if there is, I've missed it. There was one comment however to the effect that the hydrobearing strata were higher around Momoho than where the earlier drilling had been done.

[bermuda]

Thanks for asking that Mr T. I was looking at the map the other day and had the same question, but felt a bit foolish not knowing the answer!

There really doesn't seem much info out to make Momoho a really high probability, or if there is, I've missed it. There was one comment however to the effect that the hydrobearing strata were higher around Momoho than where the earlier drilling had been done.

Back in the old days they were sub commercial. Not anymore. If Momoho comes in at the same level then I would pick a commercial ( and very profitable) development.

They aint made the pipeline at 3 times the capacity for nothing.

The drill bit tells all.

[digger]

Quote: Momoho-1 will target a complex structural high situated between two previous
exploration wells: the Kupe South 4 non-commercial gas discovery, which lies
2.5 kilometres to the northwest and the Kupe South 5 non-commercial oil
discovery, which is 1.2 kilometres to the southeast.

I am just wondering why people think Momoho will be good, when just north there was nothing, just south there was nothing. So there is just a gap of 3.7km between these 2 dry wells. What am I missing here?

Mr Tommy i think saying those two wells had nothing is taking it too far.I have it from a good source that the two were discoveries but are too margional to stand alone.Also it now appears from the latest presentation[today] that both those wells were drilled on the edge of the main structure. Well that is what drilling Momoho is to find out. So IMHO Momoho is not a true wildcat but more in the apprisal line. Arjay's post above is about how i see it. The economics of this area has all changed with 100 dollar oil.
Naturally i am looking forward to a positive outcome from this May drill.

[bermuda]

Mr Tommy i think saying those two wells had nothing is taking it too far.I have it from a good source that the two were discoveries but are too margional to stand alone.Also it now appears from the latest presentation[today] that both those wells were drilled on the edge of the main structure. Well that is whdrilling Momoho is to find out. So IMHO Momoho is not a true wildcat but more in the apprisal line. Arjay's post above is about how i see it. The economics of this area has all changed with 100 dollar oil.
Naturally i am looking forward to a positive outcome from this May drill.

You are onto it Digger.

This is a VERY big drill for NZO.

Fourth time lucky? I think so.

[Tok3n]

Are we talking Hector size here?

Or do they not know at this stage?

[Nitaa]

well done Bermuda and digger spot on. The JV will definately plug into these so called marginal wells because the simple maths now make them viable

Remember, it wasnt long ago that oil was 30 - 40 per barrel. Mny of previous wells were deemed marginal or non commercial based on historic prices. About 5 years ago i beleive oil companys used a ball park figure of $20 per barrel which maybe considered marginal even with Tui. Now they probably use a figure of around $60 per barrel to decide whether to proceed or not.

One only has to look at Kupe Gas field to see that there has been a significant upgrade simply because of the price of gas that can now be achieved.

As long as oil stays anywhere near $100 then we will defitnatley see another upgrade of Tui

[Nitaa]

Another way to look at it.. Would you work for $20 per hour to clean sh..t houses every day? how about if you got offered $110 per hour to shovel the stuff.. Starts to make even a bad sh..t house smell like roses

[Sumnerned]

Thanks arjay, Digger and Bermuda. That's really encouraging info.

[arjay]

Also, remember back in the 80's Petro Taranaki made a sub-commercial discovery with its Moki-I well in the Momoho neighbourhood. Well, Petro-Taranaki have long gone but after re-naming the area 'Maari' the new owners seem to be doing quite well.

[spook]

well done Bermuda and digger spot on. The JV will definately plug into these so called marginal wells because the simple maths now make them viable

Remember, it wasnt long ago that oil was 30 - 40 per barrel. Mny of previous wells were deemed marginal or non commercial based on historic prices. About 5 years ago i beleive oil companys used a ball park figure of $20 per barrel which maybe considered marginal even with Tui. Now they probably use a figure of around $60 per barrel to decide whether to proceed or not.

One only has to look at Kupe Gas field to see that there has been a significant upgrade simply because of the price of gas that can now be achieved.

As long as oil stays anywhere near $100 then we will defitnatley see another upgrade of Tui


Does this mean there will be a lot of new wells opening up worldwide which were not economic before? If that is the case will there suddenly be an oversupply in a year or two?

[airedale]

Hi Spook, is it possible to have an oversupply of a finite resource which the world is addicted to, and which is being used up faster than ever??

[Nitaa]

Does this mean there will be a lot of new wells opening up worldwide which were not economic before? If that is the case will there suddenly be an oversupply in a year or two?As airdale pointed out, yes. not only that but some areas which were previously regarded too risky/not viable to explore now beocome more atractive. The Great Southern basin being a case in point. At $30 per barrel its not practical to explore there. Now technology has changed, the fruits are bigger so these places now come onto the radar.

My guess it would generally take about a decade of sustained increased oil prices before any oversupply (at the time) happens. It one thing to start exploring certain permits/areas but the lead time to get the stuff out of the ground will become longer as rig supply also needs time to catch up. Its a bit like oil refineries at present, whatr is being built now wont be on stream for a few years.

Potentially a long way before this bubble gets pricked.

[bermuda]

Hi Spook, is it possible to have an oversupply of a finite resource which the world is addicted to, and which is being used up faster than ever??

Oil goes to $US150 before year end.

ps The Chinese now have first option on a huge amount of oil...at US$200 a barrel.

The heat now goes on solar and hot rock to quench mankind's increasing thirst for energy.

Plus Coal Seam Gas of course.

Bush's ethanol program is now proving to be a disaster.

[arjay]

$200/barrel works out at around $1/litre for the crude oil component of petrol at the pumps. That would have to equate to somewhere around $3NZ at the pumps by year end assuming the predicted 10c drop in the NZ dollar. Pain for the NZ driver, gain for NZO shareholder. Maybe another 5c divy....?

[blockhead]

I think you are very observant Malc

[arjay]

OVER 2 MILLION nog head shares sold last 3 tradeing days and SP gone no where some body is dribling the market, what do u guys think:confused::confused::confused:

Yeh, real strange - NZO one of the poorer performers on the NZX50 today.

[bermuda]

Yeh, real strange - NZO one of the poorer performers on the NZX50 today.

Arjay
My suggestion would be to take a longer term view.

[blockhead]

hav,ent got my nog books with me whens the record date:confused:

Fri 4th, paid 15th

[Phaedrus]

Malcolm, Arjay, Blockhead - At first glance, NZO does appear to have stalled at $1.35 since it has has closed at that price for 3 days in a row. If we look a little closer, though, we can see there is more to it than that.
The 3 days under discussion were preceded by an upside window (gap) from the high of the previous candle - a strongly Bullish formation.
Candlestick (1) is a White Marubozu. NZO opened at the days low and closed at the days high. Buyers drove the price action and dominated sellers so that day closed at its high. This is Bullish.
Candlestick (2) is a Dragonfly Doji. Here, the market opened on its High, traded lower during the day, but closed again at the High. Sellers were able to drive the price down a couple of cents but were then overpowered by renewed buying pressure. Dragonfly Doji candlesticks are Bullish and the longer the shadow (tail) the more Bullish the pattern.
Candlestick (3) is another White Marubozu.
So, while the peak and Close prices have not risen, the Lows have. Buyers have had to pay progressively more each day if they wanted in. Oscillators such as the 3 plotted here are not fooled by the apparent stasis - you can see that they kept on climbing regardless.

While the volume over these 3 days was a bit above average (red line) it was not exceptional and I don't believe you should read too much into it.

http://h1.ripway.com/Phaedrus/NZOc41.gif

[arjay]

Thanks Phaedrus - very interesting. Just one question - who thinks up those remarkable names for activity within your charts?

Bermuda - "think long term"? .....Me? Not sure if my candlestick's long enough for that. Seriously though, I was referring to the stocks that have paradoxically shot up today considering their involvement in activities that are clearly on the slow-up given the current direction of the economy, compared to NZO which is going sideways despite all its blue sky. Although I reckon the ODs are going to be a significant drag on the SP so we won't really see NZO take off until after June 30th.

[tim23]

I guess you are saying the narrow price range each day lately (today I think was only 1c) is a good sign?

[AMR]

Seriously though, I was referring to the stocks that have paradoxically shot up today considering their involvement in activities that are clearly on the slow-up given the current direction of the economy, compared to NZO which is going sideways despite all its blue sky. Although I reckon the ODs are going to be a significant drag on the SP so we won't really see NZO take off until after June 30th.

End of quarter window dressing time?

[bermuda]

Thanks Phaedrus - very interesting. Just one question - who thinks up those remarkable names for activity within your charts?

Bermuda - "think long term"? .....Me? Not sure if my candlestick's long enough for that. Seriously though, I was referring to the stocks that have paradoxically shot up today considering their involvement in activities that are clearly on the slow-up given the current direction of the economy, compared to NZO which is going sideways despite all its blue sky. Although I reckon the ODs are going to be a significant drag on the SP so we won't really see NZO take off until after June 30th.

Look, I really look up to you guys ( especially Phaedrus ) who can chart so well. I am too old to get on board.

I just go on fundamentals. And to me NZO is looking GOOD.

[Sehnsucht888]

Phaedrus, Your charts show a great amount of detail, and I'm sure support your comments on being "a bit above average", and I think you are one of the more enlightened around here.

But having watched NZO for quite a long time, and seen the average trading day volumes of 100K odd, 3 days in a row of 1Mill, with no price rise, and no real news does seem excessive, and not ordinary. It does seem to be stalled, or really fighting the 1.35 break through.. (i Guess some could say great resisitance to dumping is an other optiojnn...).

Anyway - what am I saying... The last 3 days are an exception from the typical day to day trading pattern. No sellers at 1.35 after close could indicate the break through is imminent.. I certainly hope the DOW has a good one, as that could be the deciding factor as which way to go..

Final ranting.. Does the end of your chart, with the rising lows (especially considering volumes) not show pressure on an upward move being resisted??

Or have I yet again had too much wine tonight, and am seeing things....

[bermuda]

Phaedrus, Your charts show a great amount of detail, and I'm sure support your comments on being "a bit above average", and I think you are one of the more enlightened around here.

But having watched NZO for quite a long time, and seen the average trading day volumes of 100K odd, 3 days in a row of 1Mill, with no price rise, and no real news does seem excessive, and not ordinary. It does seem to be stalled, or really fighting the 1.35 break through.. (i Guess some could say great resisitance to dumping is an other optiojnn...).

Anyway - what am I saying... The last 3 days are an exception from the typical day to day trading pattern. No sellers at 1.35 after close could indicate the break through is imminent.. I certainly hope the DOW has a good one, as that could be the deciding factor as which way to go..

Final ranting.. Does the end of your chart, with the rising lows (especially considering volumes) not show pressure on an upward move being resisted??

Or have I yet again had too much wine tonight, and am seeing things....

When you look at the fundamentals you have a pretty good buy signal

Tui even better than expected
Coking coal reported to be struck at over $US300!!!!
Kupe on track
Momoho???
Hoki/Toke 2009/2010.

Forget the charts

[foodee]

Pleasing to find NZO is beginning to move after 2 months away chasing the salmon and they were running!

Phaedrus aprreciate your charts and comments as per usual.

Interesting couple of months ahead.

[the machine]

dow looking good so far.

one thing that may be holding sp from climbing is nzo is ex div on asx, as why buy more in au when it is expected the lead market in nz will drop once goes ex div

M

[blockhead]

Interesting observation by Blocky, a substantial buy order @ $1.34 has just dissappeared from the heads and a couple of big buy orders have appeared on the OD's list @ 4.7c and 4.5c, coincidence ? or someone pretty confident the od's are going to get over the line ????

[Phaedrus]

Arjay..... "who thought up those remarkable names?"
Munehisa Homma. He amassed a huge fortune trading the Japanese rice market in the 1700s. His trading principles evolved into current candlestick methodology, retaining much of the original Japanese nomenclature.

Tim23.... "I guess you are saying the narrow price range each day lately is a good sign?"
A narrow price range actually indicates market uncertainty. This reaches its extreme expression with a "4 price Doji" where Open, High, Low and Close are all the same. So, the 3 candles here are indicating increasing market uncertainty.

Sehnsucht888.......when you say that the Dow "could be the deciding factor as which way to go", I believe you are right on the money. A clear lead from the US should help dissipate some of the indecision mentioned above.
"Does the end of your chart, with the rising lows not show pressure on an upward move being resisted?" Yes, it does.

Blockhead......To me it looks more like "someone pretty confident the od's are going to get over the line".

[leecoker]

It powered through the $1.35 mark this morning. $1.38 and theres not many sellers out there

[Nitaa]

I have leveraged enoughed on the od's. Things are lookinq quite good. There is also plenty of opportunity to pick up ods at a good discount as it comes closer to June. The ones who cannot afford to convert (assuming they get over the line) will have to stump up a lot of cask for conversion. Opportunities await for ones with deep pockets

[trackers]

It powered through the $1.35 mark this morning. $1.38 and theres not many sellers out there

$1.38/$1.39

Wow the Options are really looking good. Options up almost1c this morning, 0.052/0.055 and looking cheap.

Good stuff

[skeet]

With about 12 weeks till the otions expire, the sp has to only to be up 11c to reach the $1.50 option price, who knows where this is heading at this rate! :)

[Nitaa]

as is often the case with nzo, it mostly has some retracement in the form of at least 50% of the initial gains. therefore anyo ne wanting to hold for at least a few months need to place a stop loss that is relevant to this stock.. good tip for md here

[clips]

" The ones who cannot afford to convert (assuming they get over the line) will have to stump up a lot of cask for conversion."

how does that work ?... if they can't afford to convert then i quess they won't and the
options turn to dust,,

[duncan macgregor]

" The ones who cannot afford to convert (assuming they get over the line) will have to stump up a lot of cask for conversion."

how does that work ?... if they can't afford to convert then i quess they won't and the
options turn to dust,, Lets say the sp reaches just over $1-50 to make it worth converting at the end of june. First of all it simply does not make sense for the company with a large short term income to issue more shares, and contradict it by paying a dividend to keep the brain dead happy. The poor suckers that watched the option price drop from 30c, to whatever it is right now are sitting ducks in any market. I would think the company would be quite happy to see the options lapse. If the options are in the money it will only dilute the sp, which i expect to drop in july. I would be more interested to see what the company intends doing in the future rather than see them water it all down with dividends, and issuing more shares. Only my opinion guys you can tell me at the get together on sat where i got it wrong. Macdunk

[blockhead]

By OD conversion time NOG may have made announcements regards takeover, acquisition or merger plans which could make OD holders very keen on being holders in a larger shareholder base, a couple of hundred million from OD conversion, sell PRC share, income from TUI, prospective income from Kupe, a strike at the next drill .....ya get my drift McD.
NOG could be a very liquid company (I like that )

[777]

why buy nz TODAY by across DITCH for $1.14 still 3cent cheaper taking in exchange rayte your views please:confused::confused:

I think they are ex div in Australia.

[blockhead]

I think they are ex div in Australia.

and you would use the difference up in brokerage

[tim23]

I think the ord would have to get over $1.45ish for the options to start moving, the 12 week term is so small, we know if it were say 12 months to expirey the options would be close to 35c!

[BigBob]

I think the ord would have to get over $1.45ish for the options to start moving, the 12 week term is so small, we know if it were say 12 months to expirey the options would be close to 35c!

I think the options will move if the heads hold when they go ex-div... at the moment the real price of the heads is 138-5=133 with many punters probably expecting a drop off after the divvie... however, if the ex-div price holds in the 130's the suddenly options are looking far more attractive with 12'ish weeks to run....

[BigBob]

as is often the case with nzo, it mostly has some retracement in the form of at least 50% of the initial gains. therefore anyo ne wanting to hold for at least a few months need to place a stop loss that is relevant to this stock.. good tip for md here

True observation, but imho a different beast now... any run-up in the past has been very speculative (nzo being purely an explorer), but now it's earning BIG money...!!! different beast....

[bermuda]

True observation, but imho a different beast now... any run-up in the past has been very speculative (nzo being purely an explorer), but now it's earning BIG money...!!! different beast....

Bigbob,
Good post. The fish are just starting to swim the other way.

[Mingeathinaikos]

Worth noting that with all this talk of the sp reaching $1.50 to convert options, any option that has been purchased (ranging from 4-32c) with need to reach $1.54-$1.82....
Not sure what &#37; have been traded, but my guess would be that NZO would have to be $1.60 to result in majority conversion.
Sticking with my prediction of a month ago... NZO @ $1.50 on expiry.

[Mick100]

Worth noting that with all this talk of the sp reaching $1.50 to convert options, any option that has been purchased (ranging from 4-32c) with need to reach $1.54-$1.82....
Not sure what &#37; have been traded, but my guess would be that NZO would have to be $1.60 to result in majority conversion.
Sticking with my prediction of a month ago... NZO @ $1.50 on expiry.

When it comes to option expiry date the price paid for the option is irrellevent - its a sunk cost - it doesn't matter wether you have paid 4c or 30c for them - all that matters in determining wether or not options are exercised is the price of the heads - if it's over $1.50 then options will be exercised

[the machine]

ex div on asx effective cob friday march 28

M

[Nitaa]

minge.......

without getting too technical and picking on brokerage charges, interest otherwise accrued etc, there is no point in converting options if its less than $1.50. As Mick has pointed out, whether you paid 4 or 30 cps for the options it has no bearing what so ever. You would simply let them lapse and buy heads only if you see fit. The buying of heads is a seperate issue from your decsion of when a person originally brought the options.

The options thing is actually very simple. Its either in the money or they are not. The decision to convert should not be influenced at all no matter whether you paid 0.001 per otion or $1.00 per option.

Again without trying to get too technical, 1 significant reason would be to convert options if less than $1.50. That is, if you had such a swag of options, eg 5 - 15,000,000 of them. By converting at below $1.50 may be a very good decision as buying heads with that quantity might signiiificantly push the sp over $1.50

watch this space to see if any crazy buying of options occur espescially in the last couple of weeks if the sp is anywhere between $1.35 and $1.50. Its a good way for someone to sneak in the back door.

[JMKC]

Minge, your analysis is actually not quite correct. The moment an option is in the money, ie trades above $1.50 in this case, you are obviously going to exercise, whether you bought the OD's at 1cent or $1.

Here's why.

If I pay 1 cent for the option, I'm clearly going to exercise if the stock is trading above $1.50...probably don't need to explain that one.

If I pay $1, then yes, my breakeven is $2.50, BUT, let's say the stock is trading at $1.60. My cash outlay on the options so far is $1. So if I do nothing my loss is $1. If I exercise, pay $1.50, and then sell my new heads at $1.60, my cash outlay is $2.50 but I get $1.60 back, so my loss is only $0.90.

In short, you should always exercise any options that are [I]in the money[I] at expiry.

[foodee]

Option holders
At this late stage it seems that most OD holders want to get into NZO.
Here is another twist from a simple mind.
Why not sell all your options and and buy the heads now:-
Reason(working on yesterday price) - you get .048 for your OD and by buying the heads now you get another .05 div. This will give you an entry to the heads at about 1.29 - better than paying 1.50.:rolleyes:

cheers

[BigBob]

Minge, your analysis is actually not quite correct. The moment an option is in the money, ie trades above $1.50 in this case, you are obviously going to exercise, whether you bought the OD's at 1cent or $1.

.... or if you can't afford to exercise it, you sell it to someone who can... If the heads are over 150 at expiry the majority of options will be exercised... it's that simple....

[Mingeathinaikos]

There must have been some acid in what i had for lunch... i was talking absolute $hite.
Have deleted the post so not too mislead anyone else...cheers all.

[digger]

minge.......

without getting too technical and picking on brokerage charges, interest otherwise accrued etc, there is no point in converting options if its less than $1.50. As Mick has pointed out, whether you paid 4 or 30 cps for the options it has no bearing what so ever. You would simply let them lapse and buy heads only if you see fit. The buying of heads is a seperate issue from your decsion of when a person originally brought the options.

The options thing is actually very simple. Its either in the money or they are not. The decision to convert should not be influenced at all no matter whether you paid 0.001 per otion or $1.00 per option.

Again without trying to get too technical, 1 significant reason would be to convert options if less than $1.50. That is, if you had such a swag of options, eg 5 - 15,000,000 of them. By converting at below $1.50 may be a very good decision as buying heads with that quantity might signiiificantly push the sp over $1.50




watch this space to see if any crazy buying of options occur espescially in the last couple of weeks if the sp is anywhere between $1.35 and $1.50. Its a good way for someone to sneak in the back door.

Your on to it Nita. From any time after 1-40 the options could suddenly take off as a large requirement of future heads would best be purchased this way. In effect a buyer would put a upper limit on the amount having to pay.,as compared to going directly into heads and seeing them doing a rainbow upper spirel dance just out a reach. I agree watch this space.
With the options from now on there is other game than the DM pass the parcel.

[Nitaa]

penetration into the 140's today.. when do i get the divy? 4th?

[digger]

There must have been some acid in what i had for lunch... i was talking absolute $hite.
Have deleted the post so not too mislead anyone else...cheers all.

Hey there you honest fellow,has it occured to you if everyone took that attitude well over half the posts here would be deleted. At least we no longer have Balance and Sniper ,etc,etc spitting out misleading $hit on a daily basis.
I do not remember what misleading comments you are refering to Mingeathinaikos but on this thread everyone must be well immuned to others opions by now.

[dsurf]

penetration into the 140's today.. when do i get the divy? 4th?

Record date = 4th so that is most likely chance short term of hitting 140. IMO that the traders have been in at 130ish & there is a lot selling at 1.39. Would be nice to see this week but I expect profit taking to limit SP for now. The end of month 1st quarter 08 release is another good chance I think.

Wish I hadn't sold the od's now - I blame the guru for causing panic re parcels

[dsurf]

KUPE DEVELOPMENT WELLS DISCLOSURE NOTICE
New Zealand Oil & Gas Ltd (NZOG) advises that as at 14:00 hours on 02 April, a fishing
assembly was being run in-hole in an attempt to recover stuck pipe in the 8-1/2 inch section on the Kupe South 7 (KS-7) well.
On 29 March, KS-7 intersected the top of the reservoir (Farewell Formation) with elevated
gas shows. Drilling of the 8-1/2 inch section on KS-7 reached a depth of 3,454m MDRT
(measured depth from rotary table) before the string became stuck when making a
connection.

Anyone any idea how bad this is?

[COLIN]

Option holders
At this late stage it seems that most OD holders want to get into NZO.
Here is another twist from a simple mind.
Why not sell all your options and and buy the heads now:-
Reason(working on yesterday price) - you get .048 for your OD and by buying the heads now you get another .05 div. This will give you an entry to the heads at about 1.29 - better than paying 1.50.:rolleyes:

cheers
I would actually dispute your first sentence. I think a lot of OD holders are actually there for the possible leverage gains to be made if the sp hots up over the next few weeks. If the sp looks like heading up to say $1-60 before 30 June then you are going to make a 100% gain on any money invested today into the OD's. You are not going to make anything like that percentage gain on anything you invest into the head shares today. To buy the OD's now is a large gamble, of course, and some of us have "placed a bob each way" by holding a mixture of both the head shares and the options.

[foodee]

I would actually dispute your first sentence. I think a lot of OD holders are actually there for the possible leverage gains to be made if the sp hots up over the next few weeks. If the sp looks like heading up to say $1-60 before 30 June then you are going to make a 100&#37; gain on any money invested today into the OD's. You are not going to make anything like that percentage gain on anything you invest into the head shares today. To buy the OD's now is a large gamble, of course, and some of us have "placed a bob each way" by holding a mixture of both the head shares and the options.


I won't dispute your statements; although I would say that with each advancing day the OD's value progresses towards zero. Once(If) the $1.50 is triggered the sp & OD will track in tandem.
My simple thinking is ex div will see the buy-push for the heads, but then the market is a funny animal!

cheers

[Noodle]

It would be nice to see SP get to $1.40, but cant see it today unless that big seller at $1.39 disappears! Ex divvy date will be interesting. SP could possibly fall back more than the 5c divvy. Oh any ideas on when a new batch of options may be offered????

[Rabbi]

KUPE DEVELOPMENT WELLS DISCLOSURE NOTICE
New Zealand Oil & Gas Ltd (NZOG) advises that as at 14:00 hours on 02 April, a fishing
assembly was being run in-hole in an attempt to recover stuck pipe in the 8-1/2 inch section on the Kupe South 7 (KS-7) well.
On 29 March, KS-7 intersected the top of the reservoir (Farewell Formation) with elevated
gas shows. Drilling of the 8-1/2 inch section on KS-7 reached a depth of 3,454m MDRT
(measured depth from rotary table) before the string became stuck when making a
connection.

Anyone any idea how bad this is?

Depends how long they take to get it out as the longer it takes the more money it costs. The worst case scenario is they can't get it out and then they have to side track maybe. But usually they "fish" it out in a couple of days.

[dsurf]

Depends how long they take to get it out as the longer it takes the more money it costs. The worst case scenario is they can't get it out and then they have to side track maybe. But usually they "fish" it out in a couple of days.

I was hoping so because I would hate to see momomo? delayed & macdudunk sitting round playing with his parcel

[Lion]

SP could possibly fall back more than the 5c divvy.

Why, noodle? On the ASX (admittedly with b.a. liquidity) the sp dropped by just 3.5c on Monday, their effective ex date.

On another topic, there's not much selling depth left right now. (yes, I know things can change quickly there) Approx 270k shares traded so far today, if another 270k were bought without more coming on market, we'd be up at 160c.

[Sumnerned]

Good points Lion. But this NZ market ia a worry. After 100k trades at 139 and a buyer at 139, someone comes in at around 430pm with 10k for sale at 138! Presumably it's a bigtime buyer keeping the price depressed?

[Sehnsucht888]

Well, it didn't work. Close at 1.39, and 150K left at that for sale..

[Lion]

Dunno, Summerned, really don't know about this manipulation idea. Sometimes I think maybe, other times, no. How could one single holder manage to keep the price down against so much good news lately? If they had that many to keep selling, they should be on the top 20 list. And why would they be trying to keep the price down? So they can buy more cheaply, presumably. So are they buying and selling at the same time??? And sooner or later they must decide they have enough shares, and want the sp to rise. Well, bring that on, I say.

Are they trying to keep the price down to stop the oppies being exercised maybe? There's some discussion on HotCopper about this, some saying if they are exercised it will be terrible for heads holders, while others say it doesn't matter as the cash coming in would balance any dilution. I go with the latter theory myself.

MALCOLM I DON,T THINK WE,LL GET TO 141 TOMORROW, AS IT,S EX DATE HERE BUT I HOPE I AM WRONG.

I don't think any more sellers came on the market since my last post at 4:33. 156k left at 139, then not many at all, all the way to 160c. Unrealistic to think sellers won't appear, but gee, it's fun to think of 160 tomorrow, oppies at 10c plus!

[tim23]

Nita - the divy is paid 15/4/08.

Foodee - why would they need a new options issue at this stage, they have losts of cash coming in!

[tim23]

PS i meant Noodle not Foodee and lots of cash not lost cash!

[Lion]

Malcolm, you're quite right, close of business tomorrow it is.

OK then, maybe 141 tomorrow, maybe more, providing Wall St doesn't chuck a Spaniard in the works.

Price of oil is edging back up, it seems pretty confirmed above $US100 these days, and the $NZ is edging down.

The Aussies chat a bit about acquisitions too - what do people think about NZO taking over PPP? Seems like a good use for current (or soon to be) cash surplus, especially if the options do get exercised.

[Sumnerned]

Lion and Malcolm and Nita

Thanks, all sensible stuff. I've had a few wines since my last post, so I hope I can make sense!

If I was trying to buy a substantial stake in NZO, and didn't want the heads prices to rise too much, I'd use one of two tactics.

1. Buy steadily but quietly through most of each day, then sell a small portion back late in the day, lowering expectations.

2. Use Nita's technique of buying options with a view to exercising them. A bit more expensive, but no upside risk. No-one knows you've done it til it's done.

Or both!

Let's not lose sight of the fact that NZO will likely have a market cap well over half a billion in a few months, so lots of big boys want a share. I'm not suggesting any great conspiracy here, just sensible behaviour for a large buyer, even if it is maddening for a minnow like me.

It will be interesting to see what happens when the heads go ex div. Disappointingly, dividends seem to be a huge factor for NZ investors.

[Awamoa]

There seems to be some concern as to whether the share price is going to reach $1.50 prior to 30th June.
An easy solution would be for the posters on this site to start lifting their buy bids to $1.50 plus.
Just a thought and you have a bit of time to think about it.

[tim23]

Sumerned - whats wrong with a dividend? I'm looking foward to a nice cheque in 2 weeks

[Sumnerned]

Didn't say there was anything wrong with a dividend, ( Tho I might think so.)

But I did say dividends have too much influence in NZ. Warren Buffet has never paid a dividend so his must be a crap outfit, if you get my drift.

[tim23]

That means you have to sell stock to get a feed off your investment thats why a divy is fine by me. if say I wanted say $1500 I'd have to sell about 1100 shares, a dam nuisance!

[Tok3n]

Does anyone have any modeling information on the "5th" Tui well (Tui-4H) to be drilled next year?

[Sumnerned]

That's a very fair point Tim23. There are also some tax considerations which may have driven this particular div. But, in general, and with Nzo in particular, it is a shame to see companies undervalued in NZ because they are growth oriented and don't pay dividends.

Your post opens up some interesting discussions about human nature. One is around the idea that people are either natural buyers or sellers. Sadly I'm the former, so I'm always a cautious seller, and like you, I relish the dividend cheque. But logically, keeping the money in the company gives me the choice. Dividend reinvestment schemes would appear to be a good option, but in practice they lack flexibility.

[tim23]

Well put I think that fair comment.

[COLIN]

Once(If) the $1.50 is triggered the sp & OD will track in tandem.




Agree they would probably track roughly in tandem (except for the last few days when there would be some "panic" selling by holders who don't have the cash to exercise their options). However, my main point is that you can buy a heck of a lot more options than shares for every $10,000 you might have available to invest; thus, your overall gain would be many times more, on a rising market.

[foodee]

Colin
You are absolutely right about options in general.
We are getting to the 'crunch time' for the OD holders.
I am merely indicating that there is a small window until tomorrow closing
for those that are converting and get the div at a lesser price than 1.50.

Must be getting late as I am not putting that across too well.

Cheers

[steve fleming]

No comments on Huntleys updated report on NZO??

They updated Tuesday, following a meeting with management...

"......
NZO management meeting We recently met the NZO management and visited their onshore and offshore facilities in Taranaki. Management remains quite confident of increasing oil and gas reserves over the long term and is actively scouting for exploration opportunities both offshore and onshore. The aim is to increase production to 2 million barrels of oil equivalent (mboe) on a sustained basis and lift reserves to 25mboe from 14mboe by 2012. Management expects production to peak in 2010 coinciding with the Kupe production, tapering off to less than 1mboe by 2017. Apart from exploration opportunities, asset purchase and acquisitions are also being contemplated......
.....
......
.....
.....
.....
.....
.......Reiterate Hold We reaffirm our Hold rating on the stock with a fair value of NZ$1.35/share. This is based on Net Present Value (NPV) analysis using a 10% discount rate on cash flows generated from Tui and Kupe projects. It also incorporates NZO’s 31% investment in Pike.
"

[Mingeathinaikos]

That means you have to sell stock to get a feed off your investment thats why a divy is fine by me. if say I wanted say $1500 I'd have to sell about 1100 shares, a dam nuisance!

$1500 - thats a decent sized feed.

[the machine]

for us in au hope the div is converted by nzo and paid in au.

looking forward to about au$1,700 in 15 days

M

[Tok3n]

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/section/3/story.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=10501940

Honestly do we really want the options to be in the money?

Thats a lot of cash coming in which we don't really need unless we're bidding/drilling for offshore GSB permits lol + the dilutionary effect too, rather have NZO tightly held.

Unless they're planning to use the cash for potential takeover targets?

[Lion]

Unless they're planning to use the cash for potential takeover targets?

And why not? The more I think about it, the more I think PPP would be a good fit. Similar culture, overlapping personel, overlapping assets . . . .

And Malcolm, I think when NZOG sold their PPP, it was for need of the money, rather than that they didn't like them.

There's plenty of money now, especially if the options are exercised, and 22.5% of Tui is a tasty prize.

The Aussie posters have been discussing this possibility and some PPP holders reckon A35c would buy them out. Complete takeover is the goal - gives access to PPP's considerable and growing cashbox.

Makes the bigger NZOG itself safer from takeover.

[Sehnsucht888]

I like this look at the start of the day:
BUY SELL
29,613 1 139 141 1 57,200
83,129 5 138 142 1 650


203,808 traded at 1.39 already.

Now buy side is:
43,913 3 139
93,129 6 138


Onward and upward...

[trackers]

I like this look at the start of the day:
BUY SELL
29,613 1 139 141 1 57,200
83,129 5 138 142 1 650


203,808 traded at 1.39 already.

Now buy side is:
43,913 3 139
93,129 6 138


Onward and upward...

Trades at $1.42, very nice

[Mick100]

don't panic macdunk

I'm saving some OD's to sell to you in june

OD's will soon have intrinsic value - cent for cent

They are going to go ballistic:D

.

[Noodle]

PS i meant Noodle not Foodee and lots of cash not lost cash!

Ive found that NZO like to have options out there to fund future ventures eg drilling new holes etc.

[Noodle]

I would like to see all dividend money reinvested with NZO, a win win situation for share and option holders. Perhaps in the future NZO would consider an automatic reinvestment plan option for dividends. I would be happy with that.