NZ Oil & Gas (NZO)

[tim23]

Tok3n - yes we would like the options to be in the money it will mean my heads are worth more than today and thats always a good feeling!

[arjay]

I would like to see all dividend money reinvested with NZO, a win win situation for share and option holders. Perhaps in the future NZO would consider an automatic reinvestment plan option for dividends. I would be happy with that.

It's no problem Noodle - you can use your dividend money to buy and exercise options. Win-win for you and for NZO.

[Ripping]

1.44
shes taking off

[peterfindlay]

OPTIONS DATE WILL BE XTENDED IF momoho is delayed because of STRING ).nog can and will do it) its got good reason now :confused::confused:

No, even if NZOG Directors wanted to do as you suggest, under the ASX rules they are not allowed to vary the terms of the options.

[arjay]

OPTIONS DATE WILL BE XTENDED IF momoho is delayed because of STRING ).nog can and will do it) its got good reason now :confused::confused:

Doubt it - there was nothing in the OD issue that mentioned Momoho (or any other drill) being completed within the option life.

[Mick100]

no need to extend options

they will be well in the money on june 30th

shrewd investors could rack up a quick 10 bagger over the next 12 weeks on the OD's

nothing stopping NZO shareprice now - up, up and away;)

.

[AMR]

I'm absolutely clueless about this : But what the heck is a string?

[dsurf]

I'm absolutely clueless about this : But what the heck is a string?

They are referring to the "fishing" going on for a "string" that became unconnected in the last Kupe well. Only would be problem if momoho drill was delayed because of delay finishing of kupe drilling, which would possibly decrease odds of options hitting 1.50

[trackers]

no need to extend options

they will be well in the money on june 30th

shrewd investors could rack up a quick 10 bagger over the next 12 weeks on the OD's

nothing stopping NZO shareprice now - up, up and away;)

.

Ooo, comments like that are pretty ill received around here, especially the pass-the-yadda yadda crew. I'm not greedy, will be happy with a 3 bagger on my oppies. Have put my money where my mouth is, and am very comfortable with my decision at the mo

[bermuda]

I would like to see all dividend money reinvested with NZO, a win win situation for share and option holders. Perhaps in the future NZO would consider an automatic reinvestment plan option for dividends. I would be happy with that.

I would like to see all income made above $US100 returned to shareholders. I mean most oil companies are factoring in a price of $US60 now so anything over $US100 is a real bonus and outside their budget planning.

And what a bonus it will be when oil hits $150 a barrel.

[Bilo]

I would like to see all income made above $US100 returned to shareholders. I mean most oil companies are factoring in a price of $US60 now so anything over $US100 is a real bonus and outside their budget planning.

And what a bonus it will be when oil hits $150 a barrel.

Bermuda I don't like the idea of oil getting to USD150 in the short term as it would devastate most economies. We should be very happy if it remains comfortably above USD100.

Now if the NZD crashed I wouldn't be so concerned. I think the sort of recession that would kill demand for oil has been averted - thanks to Bernanke and co.

[bermuda]

Bermuda I don't like the idea of oil getting to USD150 in the short term as it would devastate most economies. We should be very happy if it remains comfortably above USD100.

Now if the NZD crashed I wouldn't be so concerned. I think the sort of recession that would kill demand for oil has been averted - thanks to Bernanke and co.


I know what you mean but i am sure that's where it is heading. Oil production has plataued

[Bilo]

I know what you mean but i am sure that's where it is heading. Oil production has plataued

At USD100 the Canadian tar sands are viable and the USA is still the biggest user.

I was interested to read today that growing ethanol was likely to cause a worldwide food catastrophy within two years while carbon might cause a warming problem in 20years.

[bk]

At USD100 the Canadian tar sands are viable and the USA is still the biggest user.

I was interested to read today that growing ethanol was likely to cause a worldwide food catastrophy within two years while carbon might cause a warming problem in 20years.

Canadian tar sands will probably not make a significant impact. True, there is a lot of oil down there, but they need a lot of energy (nuclear?), and most of all a lot of water to extract it. Currently they think that they will not be able to extract more than 4-5 mbpd, or 5% of current world production, as available water is the limit (not to mention environmental destruction).

Ethanol is indeed a disaster in the making, while global warming might only display severe problems 20 years from now - although tipping points are not well understood and could happen sooner

[bermuda]

At USD100 the Canadian tar sands are viable and the USA is still the biggest user.

I was interested to read today that growing ethanol was likely to cause a worldwide food catastrophy within two years while carbon might cause a warming problem in 20years.

Bilo,
The Canadian tar sands are equivalent to turning gold into lead. Such is the energy loss.

And Bush's ethanol program is an agricultural disaster. The guy is a dipstick.

I just wish everyone could read and understand Matt Simmons "Twilight in the Desert"

If you havent. Please read it.

I have met Matt. He is not an egotistic.

[shasta]

Bilo,
The Canadian tar sands are equivalent to turning gold into lead. Such is the energy loss.

And Bush's ethanol program is an agricultural disaster. The guy is a dipstick.

I just wish everyone could read and understand Matt Simmons "Twilight in the Desert"

If you havent. Please read it.

I have met Matt. He is not an egotistic.

Bermuda

Im with you on the Oil price spiking to $US150 at some stage in the next 18 - 24 months.

I heard an article on the radio today, that Australia will require more coal fired power plants, seemingly as Nuclear is out of favour.

The dirty old fossil fuels are still in demand & that includes oil!

I can only see UCG or CTL as the only viable alternatives that are "green" enough to warrant support, & its not going to take oils place anytime soon..

Best bit with UCG is you dont have to mine the coal out of the ground.

NZO have come into production at the right time IMO to maximise the POO over the mid term (given that Kupe has some oil too).

Am regretting selling my NOG's :(

[bermuda]

Bermuda

Im with you on the Oil price spiking to $US150 at some stage in the next 18 - 24 months.

I heard an article on the radio today, that Australia will require more coal fired power plants, seemingly as Nuclear is out of favour.

The dirty old fossil fuels are still in demand & that includes oil!

I can only see UCG or CTL as the only viable alternatives that are "green" enough to warrant support, & its not going to take oils place anytime soon..

Best bit with UCG is you dont have to mine the coal out of the ground.

NZO have come into production at the right time IMO to maximise the POO over the mid term (given that Kupe has some oil too).

Am regretting selling my NOG's :(

Shasta,
I still have some Nogs and am so pleased my brother has millions.It is a company going places especially with the Kupe program.

Hey, Aussie arent going with more coal fired plants. Rudd is going Coal Seam Gas. Research it and get into it. Have a loook at RPM and VPE and BOW.

[digger]

when oil $15 barrel 72/73 average price of standard average home in hamilton was $19000. now $360 000 :D:D:D

On Malcolm's oil figure for POO in 72/73 and given house price of 19000 at that time,it equates to a house price today of only 134,266. So in that time form 72 to now homes have gone up about 2 to 3 times faster than oil. Well that was the past,in the next 30 years it will be the other way around.
Malcolm if you live in Hamilton we should meet up as i am in Morrinsville.

[foodee]

Unusual?

All the details on 'depth' for NZO is gone. NZOOD & others are all there.
Any ideas?

[Bilo]

Unusual?

All the details on 'depth' for NZO is gone. NZOOD & others are all there.
Any ideas?

ASB shows zero buy and zero offer.
Direct Broking shows unavailable....
All systems otherwise working...
Finding confirmed.
No ideas.

[Wilkins_Micawber]

Unusual?

All the details on 'depth' for NZO is gone. NZOOD & others are all there.
Any ideas?

Gone ex divi so depth seems to get cleared in some way (or so I've noticed in the past) - I am guessing that existing trade orders may need to be resubmitted.

[sideline]

Corporate actions like divi's and splits etc automatically cancel all outstanding limit orders.
They will need to be resubmitted if desired.

[foodee]

Thanks guys/gals.

[Bilo]

I was looking over some old postings today and tripped over one from Phaedrus on the NZO technical thread.

Phaedrus posted 8th February: “I am readier than most to scoff at blind longterm "buying and holding" and strongly emphasise the importance of having an exit strategy. Nevertheless, it is of interest to look at the returns such an approach would have given longterm NZO holders over the 5 year period under discussion. Assuming they, too, bought at 26 cents, with NZO today at $1.13 they have made an average of around 34% pa over the last 5 years!”

It is beginning to look as if NZO holders (Digger et als) since 26cps could be going to add a sixth year despite the international liquidity crisis and impending USA recession.

So why wouldn't the fundies be looking forward eagerly to Oppies D day June 30th.

PS Despite the company having no expressed requirement for the money - than a vague promise of more of the same. DS alias Hammer "trust me I know what I am doing".


Isn't it sometimes enlightening to be able to look backwards - if only I had $1M or $200M five years ago to invest at 32pc per year and could have invested it in NZO.

I wouldn't have done it then even if I could have.

Would I do it now?:confused:
Would I do it with someone else's money?:)
Would I do it with my own tax paid earnings?:(
Would I - as Bermuda sometimes indicates - back up the truck and mortgage the house to do it?:eek:
Would Digger mortgage his new house to do it?;)
Should I quit while I am ahead?:rolleyes:


Just 87 days left to contemplate what approach to take. I can see this decision occupying some time. Thank you all for trying to influence my decisions.:D

[the machine]

regarding kupe south 5 - the non commercial oil discovery.

did this not flow 2,000 barrels per day through a vertical hole?

compared to tui one wonders what flow rate would be achieved through a vertical hole - even 20m thick through the oil sands.

with a horizontal production hole - say 100m in length, what would kupe south 5 have flowed?



as regards the SP - sure a lift leading up to the ex div date, but has the impending momoho drill been fully taken into consideration - me thinks not. might be another 10 -15c sp appreciation in 2 weeks prior to the drill.



M

[digger]

regarding kupe south 5 - the non commercial oil discovery.

did this not flow 2,000 barrels per day through a vertical hole?

compared to tui one wonders what flow rate would be achieved through a vertical hole - even 20m thick through the oil sands.

with a horizontal production hole - say 100m in length, what would kupe south 5 have flowed?



as regards the SP - sure a lift leading up to the ex div date, but has the impending momoho drill been fully taken into consideration - me thinks not. might be another 10 -15c sp appreciation in 2 weeks prior to the drill.End quote.




M

The recent run up IMHO is at least 80% Kupe generated. With the Momoho drill now on the horizon it brings together what is happening at Kupe and near area.As you say Machine Kupe-5 did have oil and at that time with oil prices in the teens it was considered uneconomic,but the drilling soon is causing a refocus on kupe.This relook at NZO is long overdue after 3 years of knocking and now with many of these supposed risks well in the past the truer economic value of the company is starting to flow through. Currently at 1-42 the company is about 40 to 50% undervalued. However one year after Kupe is in full flow we should be seeing 3-00 to 4-00 dollars. Naturally i am more than pleased with the SP movement,but am amased that it took the market so long. Also a little shocked that even people i know put money and lost it in finance companies,when in frount of there noses the top developing 2008 preformer was and is waiting for the great invester wakeup------
pppppppppppppppp

[Nitaa]

The way the sp is going we will soon see the optinos at a siginificant discount. This is simply because may holders will not beable to stump up the money required for conversion. Example only..Come 2 weeks from expiry and the sp is at $1.70 then i suspect the options will only be valued at about 14 - 17 cps.

Last time around i could easily affors to convert over 100k of options at 6o cps. This time around at $1.50 for conversion i had to sell 70% of my options late last year in case i was left holding the parcel (with something in it). Could be some interesting tells as people need to finance the options or sell at a crazy discount. If the sp retreats doesnt come close to $1.50 at the end of June then its a non issue.

I agree that the sp movment is largely through Kupe. The bigger investors now have an insight on what Kupe's potential is and can now start see some value in NZO. There of course also pike. What about previous brokers advice to their clients when NZO sp was wallowing around 90 - $1.00 per share? These investors are now asking their brokers and saying, "why is NZO now up over $1.30? You told me to stay away from this stock." Meanwhile the AIA's Tel, SKC's of this world that has previously been recomemed have lost significant value over the last few months if noyt years.

well, should the options come in the money i will be ready to lock n load. Position yourself now before its too late otherwise you will lose thousands.

[manxman]

Last time around i could easily affors to convert over 100k of options at 6o cps. This time around at $1.50 for conversion i had to sell 70% of my options late last year in case i was left holding the parcel (with something in it). Could be some interesting tells as people need to finance the options or sell at a crazy discount. If the sp retreats doesnt come close to $1.50 at the end of June then its a non issue.



Agreed Nita. I was holding far more oppies than I could afford to convert, so I dropped them and bought heads. A lot of people may have to make the same decision and some of them may make it very late.
Interesting that many Kingfish warrant holders decided to exercise even though there was no particular reason. I guess it saves having to admit a mistake (disc: had a hatful of KFLWA bought at 0.40 or thereabouts, sold at 0.20 and happy to get out.) Can't believe that Mom and Pop Remmers can stump up $200m to convert the oppies. It needs institutional money.

Quite what happens if the head shares get marooned at $1.52 or so at the end of June, with no incentive for conversion, but perhaps an institutional need to hedge against the options being taken up............. hey. Its late. The wine is flowing. Going to be an interesting week, and as DS says, these are good problems to have.

[the machine]

after some searching found kupe south 5 flowed 2,300 barrels per day upon test.

M

[bermuda]

IN A EARLIER POST, ON AN OTHEIR THREAD BERMUDA said he had a spare 60,000 and don,t know where to put it:confused::confused::confused:

Malcolm,

Thanks for the opportunity.

COAL SEAM GAS

[duncan macgregor]

The Auckland Share Traders get together last night was a very pleasant evening where for a little bit of fun we had a competition to see who guessed the correct NZO sp at conversion time. It was $5-00 to enter the winner to tell the banker [STRAT] which charity of their choice to donate the money to. I was very surprized at the entries which averaged 142.875c which if correct means that the options are worthless.
I sold my options at 9c so to be fair my pick was 159c even although i think slightly lower might have been in order but still well above average.
You can read the entries on the private competition thread just below the SHREWDY, STRAT,and old Macdunk competition where i am kicking their butts.
A couple of people thought the NZO sp will plummet after the conversion which i found surprizing. Macdunk

[Crypto Crude]

Mackdunk,
earlier last year you bagged and bagged NZOOD... It caused me to pursue a challenge with you that you declined...
I also remember sweetening the deal and making it no strings attached so that you stood to lose nothing, while I stood to lose something...
... you said many times that OD's were stuffed... now you reckon $1.59:confused:..... brain dead this, brain dead that you would say...
you are a smart man not to have taken the challenge...
Im picking $1.70 at option conversion time... Oh and Im not giving 5 bucks to strat...
:cool:
.^sc

[duncan macgregor]

Mackdunk,
earlier last year you bagged and bagged NZOOD... It caused me to pursue a challenge with you that you declined...
I also remember sweetening the deal and making it no strings attached so that you stood to lose nothing, while I stood to lose something...
... you said many times that OD's were stuffed... now you reckon $1.59:confused:..... brain dead this, brain dead that you would say...
you are a smart man not to have taken the challenge...
Im picking $1.70 at option conversion time... Oh and Im not giving 5 bucks to strat...
:cool:
.^sc SHREWDY, Right at the start i said that the options were worth 5c to cover the risk. I sold them for 9c because they were over priced. I only took that in the competition to give someone else a chance to join me as being the only winner in a Share trading competition this year to date. I never thought for one moment that people would be stupid enough to pay 30c or silly enough to hold them at that price.
MICK100 and NITA would be the exceptions. A couple of people said the share price would plummet after the conversion date. I would remind you that i took NZO and PPP in the NZX competition. The convention average was 142.875c at conversion date which is to low in my opinion. It will be interesting to see how it unfolds. Macdunk

[tim23]

Malcolm I hardly think any in institutions would have held a crap stock like Lombard!

[the machine]

although this will not happen, just imagine if
nzo bought $1m of both ppp & awe every week as an investment.
ppp bought $1m of both nzo & awe every week as an investment.
awe bought $2m of both nzo & ppp every week as an investment.

up to threshold before having to make a takeover offer [but can still buy some per the creep provisions]

would do wonders for all 3 sp

can't think of a better investment for all 3

M

[Nitaa]

SHREWDY, Right at the start i said that the options were worth 5c to cover the risk. I sold them for 9c because they were over priced. I only took that in the competition to give someone else a chance to join me as being the only winner in a Share trading competition this year to date. I never thought for one moment that people would be stupid enough to pay 30c or silly enough to hold them at that price.
MICK100 and NITA would be the exceptions. A couple of people said the share price would plummet after the conversion date. I would remind you that i took NZO and PPP in the NZX competition. The convention average was 142.875c at conversion date which is to low in my opinion. It will be interesting to see how it unfolds. Macdunksorry to disppoint you guy. I sold a good size chunk at 30.5 cps. the highest i ever paid for them was 14 cps. average buy at 11 cps. FYI. remaining 30% all all free plus nearly 25k in profit. The options that i have remaining can easily be funded if required so i am comfortable with my position.

Dunkin...meanwhile this year where over 90 % of stocks are in decline, nzo is going gang busters. it looks like you have this stock wrong again. my sell signal is easy for nzo.. the signal is when you start to buy.

[Nitaa]

(a) Class of Security - Ordinary Shares partly paid (non-listed)
(b) Number issued - 425,000 Ordinary Shares partly paid (non-listed)
(c) The issue price - 75,000 at $1.22; 350,000 at $1.26 (no nominal value)
(d) Payment was in cash.
(e) Paid to 1 cent per share with the balance being due in accordance with the terms of the issue set out in (i) below.
(f) The percentage of the total class of securities issued - 11.1%
(g) The reason for issue - allocation of shares under the provisions of the Company's Employee Share Ownership Plan (ESOP). Price is set by reference to a premium over market at the time the allocation was awarded.
(h) The specific authority for the issue - pursuant to Listing Rule 7.3.6.
(i) The terms or details of the issue - the new shares are issued to and held by the trustee of the ESOP. The shares remain registered in the name of the trustee until the balance of the issue price is paid in accordance with the ESOP rules. Full rights to the new shares attach when the balance of the issue price is paid. The shares are held in escrow for two years and cannot be dealt with during that period.
(j) Total number of securities in this Class after the issue - 3,813,500 Ordinary Shares partly paid (non-listed). Total number of listed securities in existence after the issue - 256,316,145 Ordinary Shares; 138,837,889 Options (2008).
(k) N/a
(l) Date of issue - 2 April 2008.

[the machine]

if this problem has been resolved over weekend, nog may kick in from 1.37 up wards again $1.40 plus:):)


doubt if would still be fishing now.

its either fixed or not fixed.

if can't pull it out then its a simple sidetrack and finish the production hole - along the way spend a few big bucks forthe lost gear and extra time.

M

[Snow Leopard]

So I get this letter: 'signed' by Helen Mackay; dated the 27 march 2008; postmarked 2 Apr 2008. This gave me, until the 4 April 2008, the opportunity to provide bank details for direct credit of the divvy.

And yet some people persist in claiming that this company is p*** poor at communicating with shareholders :rolleyes:

[arjay]

dam well hope they have solved problem any one of you heard any whispers;);)

That earlier drill was Opito - lots of sticking drill-stems and extra hard rock as I recall. They extended the options of th eday, but they had earlier indicated that Opito would be drilled within the lifetime of the options so they really had an obligation too. Wonder whatever happened to that Opito sidetrack? - probably went west with Felix.

Yeh Malcom, you should catch up with Digger in Morrinsville - he might even show you his flying pig.

[Steve]

So I get this letter: 'signed' by Helen Mackay; dated the 27 march 2008; postmarked 2 Apr 2008. This gave me, until the 4 April 2008, the opportunity to provide bank details for direct credit of the divvy.

And yet some people persist in claiming that this company is p*** poor at communicating with shareholders :rolleyes:

Assuming the shares are registered under your existing CSN, I would have thought that the registry already had the appropriate details for dividend payments?! :confused:

[digger]

That earlier drill was Opito - lots of sticking drill-stems and extra hard rock as I recall. They extended the options of th eday, but they had earlier indicated that Opito would be drilled within the lifetime of the options so they really had an obligation too. Wonder whatever happened to that Opito sidetrack? - probably went west with Felix.

Yeh Malcom, you should catch up with Digger in Morrinsville - he might even show you his flying pig.

Yes Arjay i was coming around to thinking it was Opito that got the ob extended to oc.Also confirm that the current options were issued with no forward link to any drill or project completion.

Later on when i get my house more completed[roof now on] am going to offer a sharetrader site for a meeting. It has a great sight to see the lights of northern waikato but no Hamilton. Also i am all self power so have the best power setup that i can get hands on.
Will nearer time get a list of who is coming---now have Malcolm and Arjay.

[digger]

Assuming the shares are registered under your existing CSN, I would have thought that the registry already had the appropriate details for dividend payments?! :confused:
But not the authority.

[Lion]

Down 3 = up 2 in first 10 minutes of trading ex dividend. Looks good to me!

[Dr_Who]

Just beautiful :)

[tim23]

Up on the back of PRC? certainly a great ex-div bounce!

[Rabbi]

Yes, the shareprice has nearly made up the 5 cent dividend. If you bought on Friday you would be happy as usually it takes a while for the shareprice to climb back up.
I wonder how the fishing is going at Kupe?

[The Plunger]

The other bit of news that could be driving the SP of NZO is the new Genesis power station story on stuff. Gas powered, 480 MWs, etc. All +ve for Kupe/NZO etc. David Parker won't be happy, but we're going to need gas for power for some time to come... IMO.

[777]

With the price increasing immediately ex dividend gives a better chance of the options being in the money at the end of June.

[digger]

With the price increasing immediately ex dividend gives a better chance of the options being in the money at the end of June.

If Momoho has as much as the two previuos drills that were labeled uneconomic at the time,the SP will be more like 1-70 than 1-50.

[skeet]

The Options will be in the money, once June 30 comes around! hold me to it! ;)

Im hoping that they will be up round the 25-30c mark. Maybe a little optimistic but not completely out of the question!

[STRAT]

Oh and Im not giving 5 bucks to strat...
:cool:
.^scYou are a wize man Shrewdy:D;)

[duncan macgregor]

You are a wize man Shrewdy:D;) Never mind that STRAT tell the boys and girls what your expected Share price for NZO at conversion time is. I think the blue eyed brigade will have a field day. We might turn it in to a horror movie where the Zombies join up with the brain dead and come after you. LIZ was not much better, so we could give her the leading lady role. I at least had the decency to look shocked at your selections. One of you two thinks the sp will crash after conversion date wont say who it is but there was some agreement on that from a few others. My mate LAWSO and i were the elder statesmen LIZ was the best looking and AMR the youngest.
One person thought NITA was a man another an 82 year old widow and Macdunk thought she was a working girl with very little time on her hands.
Why dont you noggers run a competition like we did and guess the last trading price before conversion date. Put Macdunk at $1-59 whoever takes it on. Macdunk

[777]

Now we are cooking with gas. Above the cum dividend price.

Since Macdunk has opened the challenge for a price at conversion date I'll give it $1.75 and hope it is exceeded.

[duncan macgregor]

Now we are cooking with gas. Above the cum dividend price.

Since Macdunk has opened the challenge for a price at conversion date I'll give it $1.75 and hope it is exceeded. Why dont you run the competition and add the convetion selections to it. AMR 180c, OILER 165c, MACDUNK 159c, MATTYROO 158c,
SEAMUS 135c,SERPIE131c, LIZ 120c, STRAT 95c.
There you have it you run it on this thread our Auckland convention competition is a seperate charity event. Macdunk

[trackers]

Now we are cooking with gas. Above the cum dividend price.

Since Macdunk has opened the challenge for a price at conversion date I'll give it $1.75 and hope it is exceeded.

nzo $1.68 at conversion

[COLIN]

I say $1-70

[STRAT]

STRAT 95c.
. MacdunkThat was tongue in cheek Duncan. You trying to set the dogs on me or what?:D

[duncan macgregor]

That wa tongue in cheek Duncan. You trying to set the dogs on me or what?:D We all know that strat, so for your indescretion at calling NOGGERS DOGS why dont you run the competition and change your pick. Your old MATE MACDUNK looking after your interests as usual.

[the machine]

nz$2.10 @ june 30



M

[duncan macgregor]

Competition to select NZO share price on conversion date June 30th
in the event of a tie the winner is the person with the correct score posting first
I will list you in posting order.
1,AMR 180c, 2, OILER 165c, 3,Macdunk 159c. 4,MATTYROO 158c.
5,SEAMUS 135c, 6,SERPIE 131c, 7, LIZ ?, 8, STRAT?. 7 and 8 were joking.
9TRACKERS 168, 9 COLIN 170, 11,THE MACHINE 210c.

[spook]

I'll go $1.72, what's your real pick Strat?

[BigBob]

I pick 184

[zorba]

Competition to select NZO share price on conversion date June 30th
in the event of a tie the winner is the person with the correct score posting first
I will list you in posting order.
1,AMR 180c, 2, OILER 165c, 3,Macdunk 159c. 4,MATTYROO 158c.
5,SEAMUS 135c, 6,SERPIE 131c, 7, LIZ ?, 8, STRAT?. 7 and 8 were joking.
9TRACKERS 168, 9 COLIN 170, 11,THE MACHINE 210c.

Good one MacDunk, good to see you supporting the company .... I guess you've gotten on board !!!!

I'm picking conversion share price on 30 June will be trapped about 155 cents because of the dreaded downward spiral as punters liquidate Heads to exercise Options.

Zorbunctiously Zors,
Zorba

[remy]

nz $1.67 ..

[shasta]

nz $1.67 ..

I reckon NZO will be sitting nicely on $1.61

[ronthepom]

I reckon NZO will be sitting nicely on $1.61

My pick 171

[spook]

Hi Spook, is it possible to have an oversupply of a finite resource which the world is addicted to, and which is being used up faster than ever??


Hi Airedale, I didn't respond last week because I was very busy. Although this is a finite resource, It's still subject to normal supply & demand rules. We're looking at a huge increase in consumption in China and India (with the new Tata baby car hitting the roads later this year), but current prices seem to be more dictated by the speed at which it can be extracted rather than the actual remaining supply.

As we have not seen an actual shortage since 1979, only predictions, I think you will find we're not going to run out anytime soon. When there are natural disasters and wars in the Middle East the oil is still there, it just can't reach the market. Double the number of wells, with more countries producing, and the supply & demand equation could turn the other way.

I still think NZO is well short of it's value at the moment though, and I won't be selling anytime soon:)

[duncan macgregor]

[QUOTE=duncan macgregor;193430]Competition to select NZO share price on conversion date June 30th
in the event of a tie the winner is the person with the correct score posting first
I will list you in posting order.
1,AMR 180c, 2, OILER 165c, 3,Macdunk 159c. 4,MATTYROO 158c.
5,SEAMUS 135c, 6,SERPIE 131c, 7, LIZ ?, 8, STRAT?. 7 and 8 were joking.
9TRACKERS 168, 10, COLIN 170, 11,THE MACHINE 210c. 12,MALCOLM 200c.
13,SPOOK 172, 14,BIG BOB184c, 15,ZORBA 155c, 16, REMY 167c,
17 AMERICAN PSYCHO 175c 18 SHASTA 161c, 19RONTHEPOM 171c 20 PHAEDRUS 160.
21SHREWDY 169, 22 BERMUDA 149,

[Phaedrus]

$1.60 (+/- 1 Standard Deviation)
This figure is derived from drawing the linear regression slope ("line of best fit") of NZO's uptrend so far this year and extrapolating it to 30/6/08. The odds are that the actual figure will lie within one standard deviation of the plotted linear regression slope - ie between $1.50 and $1.70.

http://h1.ripway.com/Phaedrus/NZOsd47.gif

[Crypto Crude]

Mackdunk,
I posted my pick of $1.70 before the comp started...
Ive been left out...:(.... I see Colin has picked $1.70... Just put me down for $1.69....
you said 7 and 8 were joking...
are you sure that 5 and 6 werent joking also...
:D
.^sc

[bermuda]

If Momoho comes in before 30 June the sp could spike to $2.00 plus before a wave of selling ( to fund the options ) takes the price back to $1.60 as at June 30th.

If Momoho is late put me down for $1.49 with the sp ( undiluted ) rising quickly to $2.10 in July providing of course that Momoho is good news. Which I think it will be.

[blockhead]

What a day, ex a 05c div and she rises 06c plus to make tomorrow look rosy there is a buyer lined up 02c above tonights close.

As good a day as there will be I reckon, i'm off out to the fridge in the garage to collect some small brown items !!

[COLIN]

Up 7c in Oz. And 25% rise in the options there!
This is the sort of thing we need to lift our spirits? (And talking of spirits, I think I'll just have a little G & T tonight - just one, mind you. But perhaps I might just make it a double...............)

[Scuzzles]

Help! I'm confused!

I'm using Direct Broking and their data shows NZO up 6c (what blockhead mentions above) for a 143c closing price, but on Friday she closed at 142c. Thus shouldn't it show NZO up 1c today? Findata and NZX seem to be showing up 1c today - is there something I'm missing here or has Direct Broking gotten their wires crossed? :confused:

http://i12.photobucket.com/albums/a210/Scuzzles/NZO.jpg

[Phaedrus]

Scuzzles, NZO has just gone ex a 5 cent dividend. Had the shareprice not moved at all from Friday's 142, today it "ought" to have dropped 5 cents to 137. In actual fact, it rose 1 cent, so when you correct the data for the dividend distribution, you get a real increase of 6 cents. That's made up of a 5 cent dividend and a 1 cent price rise.
Direct Broking and Blockhead are right. You can perhaps see that my chart also shows a rise today of 6 cents.

[bermuda]

Help! I'm confused!

I'm using Direct Broking and their data shows NZO up 6c (what blockhead mentions above) for a 143c closing price, but on Friday she closed at 142c. Thus shouldn't it show NZO up 1c today? Findata and NZX seem to be showing up 1c today - is there something I'm missing here or has Direct Broking gotten their wires crossed? :confused:

http://i12.photobucket.com/albums/a210/Scuzzles/NZO.jpg

Scuzzles,
Time to do a wee bit more research. It is all good stuff the NZO file. ( ps I nearly asked sharetrader to help me with what Opes was about . And then I thought...why not do some research. And then I found out was a monumental stuff up they and ANZ made)

Malcolm,
But didnt you like the reasoning? You have to express your reasoning eh.

[duncan macgregor]

Help! I'm confused!

I'm using Direct Broking and their data shows NZO up 6c (what blockhead mentions above) for a 143c closing price, but on Friday she closed at 142c. Thus shouldn't it show NZO up 1c today? Findata and NZX seem to be showing up 1c today - is there something I'm missing here or has Direct Broking gotten their wires crossed? :confused:

http://i12.photobucket.com/albums/a210/Scuzzles/NZO.jpg The only thing you missed was the divi which gets deducted. Macdunk

[morv]

I will take $1.72 and I dont really expect a drop with option exercising as the co. will be a cash box with an enormous income stream

[Scuzzles]

Ah ha, ok that makes sense. I did know about the 5c dividend but never made the connection that it'd be factored in for me - actually its kinda embrassing I didn't put 2 and 2 together (or 5 and 1 in this case :p) and figure it out myself :o

Thanks all :)

[bermuda]

Ah ha, ok that makes sense. I did know about the 5c dividend but never made the connection that it'd be factored in for me - actually its kinda embrassing I didn't put 2 and 2 together (or 5 and 1 in this case :p) and figure it out myself :o

Thanks all :)

Not a problem Scuzzles. And welcome!

[Oiler]

If Momoho comes in before 30 June the sp could spike to $2.00 plus before a wave of selling ( to fund the options ) takes the price back to $1.60 as at June 30th.

If Momoho is late put me down for $1.49 with the sp ( undiluted ) rising quickly to $2.10 in July providing of course that Momoho is good news. Which I think it will be.

Bermuda.... I am with you on this one. Momoho is the wild card. The second one would have to be the Kupe costs...... is it in budget or do we have a blow out??? :eek:

Oiler

[the machine]

on an earlier post we said once sp cracks nz$1.50 and it is clear options will be in the money, then the options will drag the sp higher. its going to be a wild ride for a couple of months.

still trying to find out datafor kupe south 5, we know it flowed 2,300 barrels from a verticle flow text. did they core it? - kupe south 4 had 4 cores and numerous gas intersections

M

[tim23]

Give me $1.65 if thats still available, thanks!

[digger]

I have already said 1-70 but Shrewdy has that so is 1-73 available. Also good on you DM for doing something useful for a change,buy running this comp. Who knows i might even forgive you for calling me brain dead for holding onto NZO all these years.
I suggest that when a position is taken it is reserved and is no longer available. The next contestent can get origional and get there own number.It is two complicated to have several with the same entry.
So if not taken i would like 1-73

[OutToLunch]

Got me a few NZO at 1.20 on the ASX last Friday using a bit of the money I retrieved from ADY. What a shame I didn't realise they went ex-div a week earlier than here in NZ -- I thought I was doing myself a favour by buying them on the cheap over there, when in fact the difference was slightly more than made up for by the missing dividend! Oh well -- happy to be on board -- NZO is in great shape with all that Tui cash pouring in and other projects on the go.

I have also held a handful of the ODs for ages, but given that NZO don't seem to need the cash, perhaps it would be better for shareholders if the price was to remain under the exercise price before June 30, given the amount of dilution the ODs would create if all were exercised? Alternatively, if they were all exercised and NZO still didn't need the cash, perhaps they might return it via a share buyback of some description -- could be quite a good move if the shares were still undervalued by then.

[tim23]

Or use the money to launch a takeover or 2??

[digger]

Got me a few NZO at 1.20 on the ASX last Friday using a bit of the money I retrieved from ADY. What a shame I didn't realise they went ex-div a week earlier than here in NZ -- I thought I was doing myself a favour by buying them on the cheap over there, when in fact the difference was slightly more than made up for by the missing dividend! Oh well -- happy to be on board -- NZO is in great shape with all that Tui cash pouring in and other projects on the go.

I have also held a handful of the ODs for ages, but given that NZO don't seem to need the cash, perhaps it would be better for shareholders if the price was to remain under the exercise price before June 30, given the amount of dilution the ODs would create if all were exercised? Alternatively, if they were all exercised and NZO still didn't need the cash, perhaps they might return it via a share buyback of some description -- could be quite a good move if the shares were still undervalued by then.

Do not think so OTL. Many things are happening very shortly with these options. Consider the flip side of Arjay's arguement that the options have no in place call for an extension.This is true and unlike the OB's that had Opito mentioned at the time of issue.Here we have nearly 139 million options available for exercise and no clear right for extension.That is a clear two edge sword,in that it tells any big inst buyer that these options will not vanish and are very much a one off opportunity to stock up.I have had this idea on the watch list for some time now but i needed the dividend out of the way to see what effect it had. As we all now know the SP rose one cent higher than last friday even after the 5 cent payout is accounted for. That tells me about 90% certain that the options exercise stock up will take place by one or more INSTS.
So my best shot is that the money is going to come in with a high % certainty.
The company will use this money to expand in the ways already outlined on several occasions----mainly acciqusians or farm ins or move on our own drills.I do not see or wish for any return back to shareholders.To do so is a bit of admission that they made a mistake in offering it in the first place. Also we will have plenty of room for vaild future divs without inventing from failure to employ the exercise monies.
Long winded but cheers>

[remy]

i was waiting for the share price / option price to dip ex div and stock up but it just went up! However most people here seem to think that the share price will be well in excess of 1.50, so would i be right in saying 6c is still a good buy for the options?

remy

[pietrade]

Hi M.D. Can you put me in for 171? Thanks

[bermuda]

Bermuda.... I am with you on this one. Momoho is the wild card. The second one would have to be the Kupe costs...... is it in budget or do we have a blow out??? :eek:

Oiler

All I know it that David Salisbury said about ( admittedly) a year ago was that they were within budget. Since then he has given me no cause for alarm...but in this operating environment anything is possible.

I really dont think it is an issue. The liquids in this field are proving more than meets the eye.

[OutToLunch]

Do not think so OTL. Many things are happening very shortly with these options. Consider the flip side of Arjay's arguement that the options have no in place call for an extension.This is true and unlike the OB's that had Opito mentioned at the time of issue.Here we have nearly 139 million options available for exercise and no clear right for extension.That is a clear two edge sword,in that it tells any big inst buyer that these options will not vanish and are very much a one off opportunity to stock up.I have had this idea on the watch list for some time now but i needed the dividend out of the way to see what effect it had. As we all now know the SP rose one cent higher than last friday even after the 5 cent payout is accounted for. That tells me about 90% certain that the options exercise stock up will take place by one or more INSTS.
So my best shot is that the money is going to come in with a high % certainty.
The company will use this money to expand in the ways already outlined on several occasions----mainly acciqusians or farm ins or move on our own drills.I do not see or wish for any return back to shareholders.To do so is a bit of admission that they made a mistake in offering it in the first place. Also we will have plenty of room for vaild future divs without inventing from failure to employ the exercise monies.
Long winded but cheers>

Hi Digger,

I can't remember where I read it (within last few days) -- something about NZO taking a few bods out to see the Kupe project, during which they mentioned they no longer needed all the cash that the ODs would bring in, and that "it is a nice problem to have". Which suggested to me that perhaps there could be more cash coming in than they know what to do with, and that maybe they could undertake some kind of capital return as a result. Pure speculation on my part.

Mind you I would be more happy to see the cash used wisely via acquisitions/farmins etc like you say. Cheers

[Nitaa]

have me doen for 1.81 (there is another meaning for that number macdunk. any ideas there sexy?) being the equiviolant that i sold a good size chunk of my options.

Nice move today on the heads. buyers are hungry at the mo.. pike is on fire as well.

[duncan macgregor]

[QUOTE=duncan macgregor;193444][QUOTE=duncan macgregor;193430]Competition to select NZO share price on conversion date June 30th
in the event of a tie the winner is the person with the correct score posting first
I will list you in posting order.
1,AMR 180c, 2, OILER 165c, 3,Macdunk 159c. 4,MATTYROO 158c.
5,SEAMUS 135c, 6,SERPIE 131c, 7, LIZ 120c, 8, STRAT157c.
9TRACKERS 168, 10, COLIN 170, 11,THE MACHINE 210c. 12,MALCOLM 200c.
13,SPOOK 172, 14,BIG BOB184c, 15,ZORBA 155c, 16, REMY 167c,
17 AMERICAN PSYCHO 175c 18 SHASTA 161c, 19RONTHEPOM 171c 20 PHAEDRUS 160.
21SHREWDY 169, 22 BERMUDA 149, 23 MORV 172c, 24 TIM23 165c,
25 DIGGER 173c, 26 PIETRADE 171c, 27 NITA 181c, 28 SUMMER NED 193c.
29 QOH 179c, 30 WK6332 225c 31 BALANCE $10-65

[bermuda]

Hi Digger,
Yes it is certainly a big opportunity for someone to take a stance at $1.50. Bang.

Well done Digger. What a beautiful stock we believe in. Great when it mushrooms eh?

[Sumnerned]

Hi MD
193 for me.
Tks

[digger]

in the event of a tie the winner is the person with the correct score posting first
I will list you in posting order.End quote.

So take note of what DM is saying. Unless your brain dead it means that you can not possible win if you select a number already selected,as the second selected is automatically elimitated.

[Crypto Crude]

what does the winner get?
:cool:
.^sc

[bermuda]

Hi Digger,
Do you remember the days when everyone thought we were stupid??? And yet we continued to tell people how good NZO was ???

Digger, if you were honest, you would be giggling. Well done mate. We saw it through...and more to come.

[QOH]

Can I have $1.79 please?

[wk6332]

Can I go with 2.25 at june 30th, theres a lot of good news to come yet.

[Balance]

$10.65 by June. Momoho is going to be a gusher and contains reserves of 500 million barrels.

[Sumnerned]

Hi Shrewd
If I win I get around $25k. Of course I hope Machine or Malcolm, or even better Wk6332 wins!

[digger]

$10.65 by June. Momoho is going to be a gusher and contains reserves of 500 million barrels.
I have just read and commented on a good summary made by Balance about America on the Pike thread. It was as i said good and well balanced. Well he has gone haywire again.Guess it was too good to last.
Could we help the poor chap out and remove the zero thereby write him in at 1-65

[bermuda]

I have just read and commented on a good summary made by Balance about America on the Pike thread. It was as i said good and well balanced. Well he has gone haywire again.Guess it was too good to last.
Could we help the poor chap out and remove the zero thereby write him in at 1-65

Digger, Nice to tune in without the sniping eh?

A company that had a strategy to explore, develop, and then produce...and pay dividends.

[Tok3n]

After years of flat lining, NZO making new highs in a bear market.

Re Momoho, loads of dusters last year in Taranaki, think NZ is due for a new discovery :).

[digger]

Hi Digger,
Do you remember the days when everyone thought we were stupid??? And yet we continued to tell people how good NZO was ???

Digger, if you were honest, you would be giggling. Well done mate. We saw it through...and more to come.


Hi bermuda,
Yes i certaintly do remember those days. To forget them would be to forget life itself.
For me now there is joy and defitenly sadness. Of coa-rse it was good to be right all along and i never doubted it,but to be frank our bet was very onesided and we had to win in the end[this is the beginning with a lot to come].Our bet was that the 1972 book 'Limits to Growth" would be correct and that while the world could go on ignoring facts for 30years the ckooks would eventually come home to roost.From 2002 i have shifted all my money into this direction.Very unfortunately i failed to convince anyone else.The mob was doing something else and geoligist were saying all was well therfore it must be.
Yesterday and today i have been with farmers that for many years i have tried to talk into complete off farm investment.Only got one to make a small commitment and he is happy. The other person i got into NZO at 1-00 sold out at 1-15 as he got conned by broker that told him to take a profit.You can not go broke taking a profit,sort of crap. Many of these farmers are friends and at wits end with stock and no feed.The drought here has gone on since oct and rain really has only fallen in south waikato.Naturally these farmers know i have invested heavily in oil and to cemet it in have often laughted at me for doing so
Hence for me inwardly i must be a bit weak as i feel for those who now could not get outside the square. I am happy but trynig to keep a low profile as all aroud me is misery.Farmers are now in this drought saying that cattle are a lilibality. It is not a good time to be crowing around morrinsville.

[bermuda]

After years of flat lining, NZO making new highs in a bear market.

Re Momoho, loads of dusters last year in Taranaki, think NZ is due for a new discovery :).

The drill bit will tell us. The rest is educated conjecture.

[airedale]

$10.65 by June. Momoho is going to be a gusher and contains reserves of 500 million barrels.

Do I hear the sound of a "rock overhang" crumbling away?

[STRAT]

I'll go $1.72, what's your real pick Strat?To be honest I have no idea. I dont follow NZO.

I came up with a number anyway which has already been taken by Phadrius of $1.60.
He came up with this figure using charting. I took the number chosen by Oiler, Mattyroo, Shasta, Phaedrus, Shrewd and Bermuda and then found the average of all these which is $1.60

So Duncan just give me the next available number closest to $1.60 :D

[manxman]

$1.60 (+/- 1 Standard Deviation)
This figure is derived from drawing the linear regression slope ("line of best fit") of NZO's uptrend so far this year and extrapolating it to 30/6/08. The odds are that the actual figure will lie within one standard deviation of the plotted linear regression slope - ie between $1.50 and $1.70.

http://h1.ripway.com/Phaedrus/NZOsd47.gif

Thanks Phaedrus.
If you do the same exercise, but with a start date of 1 February then the answer is really encouraging.

And noting that the price curve is seriously concave upwards, if you fit a quadratic and extrapolate to 30 June..... I'm off to order another bottle.

Mx

[duncan macgregor]

[QUOTE=duncan macgregor;193518][QUOTE=duncan macgregor;193444][QUOTE=duncan macgregor;193430]Competition to select NZO share price on conversion date June 30th
in the event of a tie the winner is the person with the correct score posting first
I will list you in posting order.
1,AMR 180c, 2, OILER 165c, 3,Macdunk 159c. 4,MATTYROO 158c.
5,SEAMUS 135c, 6,SERPIE 131c, 7, LIZ 120c, 8, STRAT157c.
9TRACKERS 168, 10, COLIN 170, 11,THE MACHINE 210c. 12,MALCOLM 200c.
13,SPOOK 172, 14,BIG BOB184c, 15,ZORBA 155c, 16, REMY 167c,
17 AMERICAN PSYCHO 175c 18 SHASTA 161c, 19RONTHEPOM 171c 20 PHAEDRUS 160.
21SHREWDY 169, 22 BERMUDA 149, 23 MORV 172c, 24 TIM23 165c,
25 DIGGER 173c, 26 PIETRADE 171c, 27 NITA 181c, 28 SUMMER NED 193c.
29 QOH 179c, 30 WK6332 225c 31 BALANCE $10-60 32 777 175.
33 TOK3N 145, 34 CLIPS 167, 35CORRAN 156, 36 MICK100 250.


STRAT i gave you 157 no more changes to anyone. SHREWDY the prize is being the best there is. Hope to see a lot more entries. The closer it gets to conversion date the easier it becomes but harder to find an unclaimed number.

[Tok3n]

I say $1.45

[777]

Duncan you missed me on page 176 with my guess at 1.75.

[zorba]

.
Nice oil price trend .....

http://futures.tradingcharts.com/intraday/CL_/58

[clips]

my dart has landed on $1.67.......

[corran]

mine on $1.56....

[Nitaa]

Any chance of nzood being in the money today? without looking at the dept there may be.

Open stronger anyway

[Mick100]

put me down for $2.50

[777]

put me down for $2.50

I like it.

[trackers]

put me down for $2.50

I think we have a winner!

1.45/1.46, up 3c.
Buy side 647,000 Sell side 127,000.

Options trading at 8c and on the improve, sell side diminishing there also.

Glad I put my money where my mouth was some time ago with the oppies and ignored the naysayers. Will be holding long term

Congratulations on double bagger for those who bought only several weeks ago at 4c, unfortunately I was already all in with an average of 6.1c

[Phaedrus]

Thanks Phaedrus.
If you do the same exercise, but with a start date of 1 February then the answer is really encouraging.

Right! The linear regression slope does vary depending on the start date you select. Personally, I believe that $1.60 target will be on the low side.

I am of the opinion that many (most?) holders of options will also hold the heads. The big question here, then, is how much selling down of heads there will be by people needing funds to convert their options?

If the options were "in the money", just before the conversion date there could be a lot of selling of heads, driving the price down so that the options were then not "in the money".........
Option holders could then buy (more) heads, driving the price up to ensure that their options were in the money, leading to a need for more selling to convert.........AAAAAAAAARRRRRRRRGGGGGGHHHHHH!

[bermuda]

Right! The linear regression slope does vary depending on the start date you select. Personally, I believe that $1.60 target will be on the low side.

I am of the opinion that many (most?) holders of options will also hold the heads. The big question here, then, is how much selling down of heads there will be by people needing funds to convert their options?

If the options were "in the money", just before the conversion date there could be a lot of selling of heads, driving the price down so that the options were then not "in the money".........
Option holders could then buy (more) heads, driving the price up to ensure that their options were in the money, leading to a need for more selling to convert.........AAAAAAAAARRRRRRRRGGGGGGHHHHHH!

Like an opera. Fascinating. Everyday will bring something new.The options conversion is going to be a big call on shareholders. Perhaps they will sell their other shares and not NZO Heads??

[777]

Any chance of nzood being in the money today? without looking at the dept there may be.

Open stronger anyway

In the money by midday today.

[trackers]

Fear of dollar fall, Opec stance lift oil

5:00AM Tuesday April 08, 2008


Oil prices rose half a dollar to a one-week high near US$107 ($135.5) a barrel yesterday as traders feared more losses for the dollar and Opec's secretary general suggested the group saw little need to pump more oil.
US light, sweet crude for May delivery rose US38c or 0.4 per cent to US$106.61 a barrel by evening after leaping US$2.40 a barrel on Friday, recouping all of the week's earlier losses as investors sought shelter from the falling greenback.
Prices hit an earlier high of US$106.91. London Brent crude rose US14c to US$105.04.
The dollar fell on Friday after a US government report showed employers slashed payrolls a third-straight month in March, cutting 80,000 jobs, the biggest monthly decline in five years.
Although it rallied against the yen as traders focused on fund allocations by Japanese investors at the start of the fiscal year, most commodity prices were broadly higher as traders anticipated a continued shift of money into the sector.
"The key driver will be continued financial investors' inflows into oil," said Societe Generale in a report, reasserting its US$107.50 forecast for average oil prices in the second quarter.


"On balance, we take comfort in the fact that front-month crude prices appear to have found a floor at US$100, and appear to be trending sideways."
As oil prices resume climbing toward their March 17 record of US$111.80, Opec officials have stuck to their refrain over the well-supplied state of the market.
"Oil supply to the market is enough and high oil prices are not due to a shortage of crude but rather it is because of the decrease in the dollar's value, shortage of refinery capacity and some political tensions in the world," Opec Secretary-General Abdullah al-Badri was quoted as saying by Iran's official IRNA news agency.
"Opec is not under any pressure ... to raise crude output," Badri said, adding that there were no plans to hold an emergency meeting before its next planned gathering in September.
- REUTERS
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/section/3/story.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=10502602

[Crypto Crude]

Your right Bermuda,
I've taken a hammering at times for suggesting this company...
had a few heated debates with the neighbour...
The thing about this is that Many of us were too late to make NZO a serious investment... When I first got put onto NZO it had already boomed, and I was looking for penny stocks anyway... At that time a booming stock was the biggest turn off imagineable to me...
....
the NZ oil industry is still in infancy stage... NZO has and will give the local industry more exposure, This activity in GSB will do wonders... big future here...
.....
Can anyone tell me what Mackdunks $1.10 buy pick, with a rubber band tight 5% trailing stop loss would have been sold for?
Sounds like Diggers story when he got a friend in at $1... the person was conned into selling at $1.15 by a broker who said you can never lose by taking a profit...
also known as broker Mackdunk...
I give it up to mackdunk though, he has made some damnn great buys, picks, and trades in other stocks... just not in New Zealand Oil And Gas...
Stick to resource mate...
:cool:
.^sc

[digger]

Right! The linear regression slope does vary depending on the start date you select. Personally, I believe that $1.60 target will be on the low side.

I am of the opinion that many (most?) holders of options will also hold the heads. The big question here, then, is how much selling down of heads there will be by people needing funds to convert their options?

If the options were "in the money", just before the conversion date there could be a lot of selling of heads, driving the price down so that the options were then not "in the money".........
Option holders could then buy (more) heads, driving the price up to ensure that their options were in the money, leading to a need for more selling to convert.........AAAAAAAAARRRRRRRRGGGGGGHHHHHH!


Phaedrus and Bermuda,i think this is inst driven and the appro 210million needed to convert will come from outside the existing holders,about where i strongly suspect the current buying strength is coming from. In the past we have all felt head selling to fund option conversion but this time round i believe it will be largely different. Remember the company clearly has no more need for funds and this fact tells inst that it is pretty much now or never to stock up. Watch this space but my bet is that this option conversion will not follow the pattern of the OC's

[Nitaa]

SC

Unfortunately for MD he would have been spat out at $1.10 - $1.00 after reachimng $1.17. Basically he would have broken even.

MD reminds me of No Cash.. Buy high sell low.. sorry No cash but you and MD have learnt some very hard lessions. Nevery try to think you understand the market.

[trackers]

Phaedrus and Bermuda,i think this is inst driven and the appro 210million needed to convert will come from outside the existing holders,about where i strongly suspect the current buying strength is coming from. In the past we have all felt head selling to fund option conversion but this time round i believe it will be largely different. Remember the company clearly has no more need for funds and this fact tells inst that it is pretty much now or never to stock up. Watch this space but my bet is that this option conversion will not follow the pattern of the OC's

I agree. I think it is more likely that OD holders will sell as many OD's as they need to (at a substantial profit), to convert the rest. There will be insto's etc buying them up as they will be able to arbitrage a few cents saved when it comes to crunch time, so no worries of much weakness in the heads or oppies in my humble opinion. Seeing such a strong rise ex-divvie like this really leads me to believe that some big players have a lot of faith in Momoho, PRC, and Kupe in general.

[Dr_Who]

Seeing such a strong rise ex-divvie like this really leads me to believe that some big players have a lot of faith in Momoho, PRC, and Kupe in general.


I agree. Good volume indicate a big buyer.

[clips]

wouldn't folk have piled up cash in anticpation of converting - if it's favourable
at june 30. well i have ......

looks like we are about to break on through to the other side,,, wahoo wahoo

[Nitaa]

expect to see some profit takes soon but who knows

[Toulouse - Luzern]

It is interesting how the SP is hovering just under the round figure under $1.50...

[dsurf]

Don't want to be a party pooper as I hold heads - but when I look at the 5 year history there have been 3 super spikes - basicly think it is traders driving it up. Personally think it will need to test 1.34 / 1.35 again in next week or two before having any chance of going through 1.50. Also PRC very supportive but wary of buy the rumour (coal = 300 US$) sell the fact (300$US announced officially) so expect profit taking.

Mackdunk - I expect VWAP on June 30 close to be 155.5 - All the 150's have gone!!

[duncan macgregor]

Don't want to be a party pooper as I hold heads - but when I look at the 5 year history there have been 3 super spikes - basicly think it is traders driving it up. Personally think it will need to test 1.34 / 1.35 again in next week or two before having any chance of going through 1.50. Also PRC very supportive but wary of buy the rumour (coal = 300 US$) sell the fact (300$US announced officially) so expect profit taking.

Mackdunk - I expect VWAP on June 30 close to be 155.5 - All the 150's have gone!! You cant win with that why dont you try 154 which is available if you want?. Macdunk

[skeet]

Im down for $1.85 if its still free! :)

Bought 12000 more options today

[the machine]

surprside no on joined me above $2

momoho is going to be huge - following data re kupe south 4

http://www.gns.cri.nz/services/petroleum/images/link3_well_kupe.pdf

data for kupe south 5 is not as comprehensive - still trying to find more info

M

[Dr_Who]

NZO should buyout PPP with so much cash. It makes sense.

[duncan macgregor]

[QUOTE=duncan macgregor;193586][QUOTE=duncan macgregor;193518][QUOTE=duncan macgregor;193444][QUOTE=duncan macgregor;193430]Competition to select NZO share price on conversion date June 30th
in the event of a tie the winner is the person with the correct score posting first
I will list you in posting order.
1,AMR 180c, 2, OILER 165c, 3,Macdunk 159c. 4,MATTYROO 158c.
5,SEAMUS 135c, 6,SERPIE 131c, 7, LIZ 120c, 8, STRAT157c.
9TRACKERS 168, 10, COLIN 170, 11,THE MACHINE 210c. 12,MALCOLM 200c.
13,SPOOK 172, 14,BIG BOB184c, 15,ZORBA 155c, 16, REMY 167c,
17 AMERICAN PSYCHO 175c 18 SHASTA 161c, 19RONTHEPOM 171c 20 PHAEDRUS 160.
21SHREWDY 169, 22 BERMUDA 149, 23 MORV 172c, 24 TIM23 165c,
25 DIGGER 173c, 26 PIETRADE 171c, 27 NITA 181c, 28 SUMMER NED 193c.
29 QOH 179c, 30 WK6332 225c 31 BALANCE $10-60 32 777 175c.
33 TOK3N 145c, 34 CLIPS 167c, 35CORRAN 156c, 36 MICK100 250c.
37 DSURF 154c, 38 SKEET 185c,


I took the liberty to give you 154c DSURF 155.5 cents wont happen

[mibo]

Put me down for 177c thanks

[Jay]

I'm in at 1.62

[777]

One would wonder why a seller would have watched the shares trade up to 1.49 during the day then stick 100,000 on at 1.43 in the closing clean up.

[Awamoa]

Probably No Cash trying to sell the shares he bought earlier for $1.49

[Entrep]

A CFD trader who got burnt?

[fruitloop]

options hit "after trading" as well, is someone after some cheapies tomorrow ?

[skeet]

I think all markets will be down again tomorow, options will look good.... again.... just like I thought they did today! :P

[digger]

One would wonder why a seller would have watched the shares trade up to 1.49 during the day then stick 100,000 on at 1.43 in the closing clean up.

Looks like the old established buying pattern reamerging. That is run it up then go for a 25% pull back from the beginning of the run. This one was quite a long and well maintained run but a pull back is overdue to flush out more sellers.We could almost have a seperate compition to see where the pullback will stop. My thinking is as low as 1-36 to 1-40 for about a week to 10 trading days before then advancing past 1-50.

[zacman]

187

zacman

[digger]

To Much Going on To FALL To Much GeniunE Out Side Interest:)

Thanks malcolm.I see after our close here that in AUS it closed at 1-48 equivalent.

[gambier33]

Put me down for 1.15

This is NZO. The recovery of lost pipe down hole KS-7 on the Kupe drill will fail after months of fishing and a long sidetrack will have to be restarted from the 500 m MDRT, starting off with 22 inch casing that has to be imported in due to it all having been used on the planned holes. The ship bringing it from the USA (the only place left with rulers marked in inches) sinks on the way to NZ.

A fire will start in the PRC development adit and it will have to sealed off and a new tunnel started from 10 km away.

And, the Umuroa will be hit by a Wahine scale storm, get washed up out of control on the beach at Hawera and cause untold environmental damage.

[duncan macgregor]

[QUOTE=duncan macgregoCompetition to select NZO share price on conversion date June 30th
in the event of a tie the winner is the person with the correct score posting first
I will list you in posting order.
1,AMR 180c, 2, OILER 165c, 3,Macdunk 159c. 4,MATTYROO 158c.
5,SEAMUS 135c, 6,SERPIE 131c, 7, LIZ 120c, 8, STRAT157c.
9TRACKERS 168, 10, COLIN 170, 11,THE MACHINE 210c. 12,MALCOLM 200c.
13,SPOOK 172, 14,BIG BOB184c, 15,ZORBA 155c, 16, REMY 167c,
17 AMERICAN PSYCHO 175c 18 SHASTA 161c, 19RONTHEPOM 171c 20 PHAEDRUS 160.
21SHREWDY 169, 22 BERMUDA 149, 23 MORV 172c, 24 TIM23 165c,
25 DIGGER 173c, 26 PIETRADE 171c, 27 NITA 181c, 28 SUMMER NED 193c.
29 QOH 179c, 30 WK6332 225c 31 BALANCE $10-60 32 777 175c.
33 TOK3N 145c, 34 CLIPS 167c, 35CORRAN 156c, 36 MICK100 250c.
37 DSURF 154c, 38 SKEET 185c,39 MIBO 177c 40 JAY 162c,
41 ZACMAN 187c,42GAMBLER33 115c,43 BILO 156, 44 BRUCET09 164,
45 ROMER 163,


[/QUOTE] Keep the entries coming guys

[Bilo]

[quote=duncan macgregor;193707][quote=duncan macgregor;193586][quote=duncan macgregor;193518][quote=duncan macgregor;193444] Keep the entries coming guys

I would have plugged for 157 with Strat but I think 156 is free, so put me down for 156, Duncan. Regards Bilo. PS the big money wants to make sure that as many get converted as possible but won't pay much over $1.50 without them being worth heaps more than $2.50.

[Joe King]

No, even if NZOG Directors wanted to do as you suggest, under the ASX rules they are not allowed to vary the terms of the options.

Havn't followed all of this thread but Peterfindlay, check out what NEO did when op expiry time came and no liklihood of exercise..... they were able to virtually resell the options under ASX rules
Cheers all haven't been here for a while
JK

[Steve]

How have the recent volumes stacked up with the rising shareprice? Anyone keeping track of this?

[brucey09]

senors $1.64c gracias

[the machine]

How have the recent volumes stacked up with the rising shareprice? Anyone keeping track of this?


have a look at the chart on the asx site - volumes very high

M

[Crypto Crude]

Steve,
Trading volumes have been very robust compared to last year when we had extended periods of stalemate...
------>
One easy way to check volumes and historical prices is to go to Yahoo.com...
click on the Finance link --> third down on main page...
in the quote box put in NZO and make sure you select the right company....(this is a wroldwide search engine)...
when you open up this page you have a left hand column... click on
'historical prices'.... here you can check the volumes and compare with any period as you choose... check out all the other features aswell...
...
NEO is the master of disaster... enough said...
:cool:
.^sc

[Romer]

163c or if it's gone, the nearest upwards unclaimed.

Thanks Dunc

:)

[dsurf]

Note,if options are exercised this would increase market cap of nzo bringing it to the attention of large institutional buyers and also the asx 300,the extra capital the company would receive would be of great benefit and a positive for nzo going forward esp in this time of "credit crunch",nzo could be well funded,oil,gas, coal producer,div paying,asx 300 listed,and the sp would just take care of itself.

[dsurf]

U.S. RAISES PRICE FORECAST

The EIA said Tuesday that despite softening demand, the world oil market would remain tight this year as production increases from both the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and non-OPEC countries will likely fall short of projections.

For the first time, it raised its full-year forecast for U.S. light crude to more than $100 a barrel and said a slowing U.S. economy would not be enough to check soaring oil demand.

OPEC has said inventories are ample and has so far rejected calls from consumers for more oil.

The group's President Chakib Khelil reiterated on Tuesday that high oil prices were not caused by a shortage of crude and he saw no need for OPEC to pump more.

"Nothing has changed to change at least my view of the situation, which is there is really no need for increasing the supply," he told reporters on the sidelines of a conference.

[blockhead]

Someone did the calculation a while back, does a 04c lift in PRC equate to about 01c gain for NZO

[tim23]

I assume NOG have an exit strategy for Pike; nice paper profit in the interm though.

[sideline]

Someone did the calculation a while back, does a 04c lift in PRC equate to about 01c gain for NZO

NZO own approximately 82m shares of PRC (31% of 266m) I think.
NZO float is about 256m shares now.
So in round numbers every 3 NZO shares include/own 1 PRC share.
Similarly a 3c rise in PRC should raise value of NZO by 1c


While I looked up the numbers I found it interesting to note that market capitalization for
NZO and PRC is comparable now. 369m for NZO, 339m for PRC
When will we see PRC in the NZX50?

[Lion]

When will we see PRC in the NZX50?

I think I've answered this question before. NZX50 inclusion is based on freely tradeable shares only, and NZOG & the 2 Indian companies together own approx half the Pike shares, so they aren't counted.

[digger]

Tapis Breaks US$115
Posted by Big Gav on April 8, 2008 - 9:00pm in TOD: Australia/New Zealand
Topic: Supply/Production
Tags: oil prices (list all tags)

The price of Tapis broke through the US$115 barrier in Singapore today, so you can expect to see petrol prices on the rise again soon.

[Dr_Who]

Can someone please give me a link to a site that gives Tapis spot price?

Cheers.

[Nitaa]

MD..remember when 2 months ago when i said the fundamentals $1.00 were a dead set bargin? Low side 90 cps, high side any ol number. As of now yes it could retract to $1.20 ish but at the end of the day $1.00 2 months ago was a steal.

Personally i am prepared to hold out for at least 1 more year especially while commodity prices are climbing and China and the likes are not slowing down. Do i take a great profit and run? naaa no me.. I am not going to loose especially after selling most of my portfolio last year. What i still hold will do me fine.

ps. i would have love to give you the big Nita smackeroo at last weeks convention but i wont be back into the country uintil next week.. i really wanted to see if those things under your kilt are made of steel or marshmellow. :-)

[trackers]

or they could be buiding up stake:confused::confused:

Why they would exit before PRC starts shipping tons of the good stuff would be beyond me.. Also they don't need the money right now.

As to building up a stake... That'd be nice, but they've suggested before its not their core business, so don't think they want to go there

[trackers]

A lot of profit taking today, going nowhere on big volume. Not a big surprise after yesterday, but with a soft close last night & PRC going through the roof would have expected a bit of a bump.

$1.49 by E.O.W if PRC retains sp

[Nitaa]

A lot of profit taking today, going nowhere on big volume. Not a big surprise after yesterday, but with a soft close last night & PRC going through the roof would have expected a bit of a bump.

$1.49 by E.O.W if PRC retains spPRC is going through puberty at the moment, plenty of spurts lately. It will be interesting to see how it all pans out after reaching maturity.

Personally i left PRC out of my portfolio but still retained some exposure through nzo.

[duncan macgregor]

Keep the entries coming guys

Competition to select NZO share price on conversion date June 30th
in the event of a tie the winner is the person with the correct score posting first
I will list you in posting order.
1,AMR 180c, 2, OILER 165c, 3,Macdunk 159c. 4,MATTYROO 158c.
5,SEAMUS 135c, 6,SERPIE 131c, 7, LIZ 120c, 8, STRAT157c.
9TRACKERS 168, 10, COLIN 170, 11,THE MACHINE 210c. 12,MALCOLM 200c.
13,SPOOK 172, 14,BIG BOB184c, 15,ZORBA 155c, 16, REMY 167c,
17 AMERICAN PSYCHO 175c 18 SHASTA 161c, 19RONTHEPOM 171c 20 PHAEDRUS 160.
21SHREWDY 169, 22 BERMUDA 149, 23 MORV 172c, 24 TIM23 165c,
25 DIGGER 173c, 26 PIETRADE 171c, 27 NITA 181c, 28 SUMMER NED 193c.
29 QOH 179c, 30 WK6332 225c 31 BALANCE $10-60 32 777 175c.
33 TOK3N 145c, 34 CLIPS 167c, 35CORRAN 156c, 36 MICK100 250c.
37 DSURF 154c, 38 SKEET 185c,39 MIBO 177c, 40 JAY 162c,
41 ZACMAN 187c, 42 GAMBLER33 115c, 43 BILO 156c, 44 BRUCETO9 164c.
45 romer 163c.46 HOOP 145c 47 RABBI 148c 48 ROTWEILLER 153c,
49 MINGEATHINAIOOS 150,

[Nitaa]

always working there big guy but too old to be "working it"

[duncan macgregor]

always working there big guy but too old to be "working it"
Takes to long counting the 10c pieces does it?. Macdunk

[Crypto Crude]

Balance-$10.65 by June. Momoho is going to be a gusher and contains reserves of 500 million barrels.

haha... look at this for a pick...
yes there is extra spare capacity but not that much...
:D
.^sc

[Hoop]

MC D

Can you put me in at 145c.

Ta
Hoop

[Nitaa]

Takes to long counting the 10c pieces does it?. Macdunkmd.. does that cross the threashold of being acceptable? your lucky i can take a joke.

[Rabbi]

Put me down for $1.48 Macdunc.

I think traders will keep it under $1.50 unless Mohomo strikes more gas.

A bit of profit taking going in now which is to be expected.

[digger]

Can someone please give me a link to a site that gives Tapis spot price?

Cheers.

http://www.upstreamonline.com/market_data/
Then go to oil prices.

[friedegg]

imagine if nzo still held around 70% of pike,i think they should keep if not increase thier stake in pike,exploration is getting harder and dearer so keep what youve found i think

[tim23]

How can traders keep it under $1.50and who are they who are so powerful!!?

[rotweiller]

My pick - $1.53
Thanks MD
Cheers

[zorba]

http://www.upstreamonline.com/market_data/
Then go to oil prices.

Hi Digger,

Great link to latest oil prices --- holy moly every single one of em is above 100$ per barrel !!!!

And Tapis is creaming it -- top of the whole lot -- at just under 114$ / barrel

Zorba

Go NZOG, Go Pike !!!!
.

[digger]

Hi Digger,

Great link to latest oil prices --- holy moly every single one of em is above 100$ per barrel !!!!

And Tapis is creaming it -- top of the whole lot -- at just under 114$ / barrel

Zorba

Go NZOG, Go Pike !!!!

.

Lets see the sums.
41000 a day from tui at 114 tapis
This makes
41000[12.5%] times 114[1/.8]=
5125 barrels for NZO times $NZ 142.5 =730,312.50 NZ dollars a day for NZO from TUI.
Also note i have reduced production from TUI to 41,000 a day. Last i heard it was 43,000 so should still be comfortably at 41,000.

[Steve]

And to think that it was only a couple of weeks ago that the options were being written off... :rolleyes:

[Unicorn]

Too much enthusiasm there Digger ...

Gross income is not very meaningful, even if it is impressively large. We need production costs, corporate overheads, royalties and tax to come off to get the net surplus. And we should use monthly average price rather than current price.

So something like $425,000 per day (mathematically around $38M for a quarter) of net surplus is a more meaningful figure for current performance.

And don't forget that the company will deduct amortisation from their published net surplus. And hopefully Momoho costs will come into this year.

I expect the announced net surplus for the year will be about $105M (say 41 cps). We should not forget the PRC holding gains of possibly 25 cps that will not show in the books - book value $67.5M, but market value around $130M (@160 cents). The real picture looks rather more impressive than the books, which is rather rare these days!

It is still a while until end of year, so it could all change by then - but the longer Tui keeps delivering and the longer Tapis stays at these levels the better it is looking. A brilliant year for NZO, even with the lack of exploration success thus far.

[digger]

Too much enthusiasm there Digger ...

Gross income is not very meaningful, even if it is impressively large. We need production costs, corporate overheads, royalties and tax to come off to get the net surplus. And we should use monthly average price rather than current price.

So something like $425,000 per day (mathematically around $38M for a quarter) of net surplus is a more meaningful figure for current performance.

And don't forget that the company will deduct amortisation from their published net surplus. And hopefully Momoho costs will come into this year.

I expect the announced net surplus for the year will be about $105M (say 41 cps). We should not forget the PRC holding gains of possibly 25 cps that will not show in the books - book value $67.5M, but market value around $130M (@160 cents). The real picture looks rather more impressive than the books, which is rather rare these days!

It is still a while until end of year, so it could all change by then - but the longer Tui keeps delivering and the longer Tapis stays at these levels the better it is looking. A brilliant year for NZO, even with the lack of exploration success thus far.

All very true Unicorn,but i was only dealing in gross revenue.It was only about 4 months ago i posted the same gross income at the time exceeding 500,000 which just shows how much things are improving. I stick to gross income as i come from a farming and business background and i know only to well how after the gross income is earned the figures can be manipulated to get whatever final profit figure is required.
Still as you point out things are looking very good nonetheless.
Cheers.

[Mingeathinaikos]

MD,
I've been saying $1.50 on 30 June for the last 3 months, so i'll stick with that.

Cheers

[the machine]

tomorrow will know how the kupe 7 fishing progressed.

a successful catch could see rig shifted in near future to drill momoho as doubt they would drill the 5km from present location - adding 4 weeks to the drill, when shifting the rig would save that time.

nzo have budgeted $8m for their 15% of momoho = =$50m drill.

M

[manxman]

Good Morning McDunk

Pop me down for $1.95, and don't let that horrid Nita get to you.

Thanx
Mx

[duncan macgregor]

[QUOTE=duncan macgregor;193906]Competition to select NZO share price on conversion date June 30th
in the event of a tie the winner is the person with the correct score posting first
I will list you in posting order.
1,AMR 180c, 2, OILER 165c, 3,Macdunk 159c. 4,MATTYROO 158c.
5,SEAMUS 135c, 6,SERPIE 131c, 7, LIZ 120c, 8, STRAT157c.
9TRACKERS 168, 10, COLIN 170, 11,THE MACHINE 210c. 12,MALCOLM 200c.
13,SPOOK 172, 14,BIG BOB184c, 15,ZORBA 155c, 16, REMY 167c,
17 AMERICAN PSYCHO 175c 18 SHASTA 161c, 19RONTHEPOM 171c 20 PHAEDRUS 160.
21SHREWDY 169, 22 BERMUDA 149, 23 MORV 172c, 24 TIM23 165c,
25 DIGGER 173c, 26 PIETRADE 171c, 27 NITA 181c, 28 SUMMER NED 193c.
29 QOH 179c, 30 WK6332 225c 31 BALANCE $10-60 32 777 175c.
33 TOK3N 145c, 34 CLIPS 167c, 35CORRAN 156c, 36 MICK100 250c.
37 DSURF 154c, 38 SKEET 185c,39 MIBO 177c, 40 JAY 162c,
41 ZACMAN 187c, 42 GAMBLER33 115c, 43 BILO 156c, 44 BRUCETO9 164c.
45 romer 163c.46 HOOP 145c 47 RABBI 148c 48 ROTWEILLER 153c,
49 MINGEATHINAIOOS 150,50 MANXMAN 195, 51 MACDUFFY 146, 52 BLOCKHEAD 198,
53 777 225c,

[blockhead]

from $1-15 to $10-60 with numbers in between


Blockys in @ $1.98

[manxman]

Duplicates on 145 156 165 171 172 and 175.

Only the first poster of any number can claim the win so carefull there lest Macdunk declare thee BRAIN DEAD

Mx

[dsurf]

New Zealand Oil & Gas Ltd (NZOG) advises that as of 14:00 hours on 09 April, attempts to
recover the stuck pipe in the 8-1/2 inch section on the Kupe South 7 (KS-7) well had been
abandoned and preparations were underway to sidetrack and redrill the reservoir section.

[dsurf]

Anyone any idea on how long the sidetrack will take & whether this means momoho result will now come after june 30?

[the machine]

took them long enough to abandon the lost gear - 6 days is a long time to try to recover it.

guess the sidetrack willtake about a week, so Momoho could still spud by end of April.

M

[macduffy]

Macquarie's have commenced coverage of NZO with a 12 month target of $1-70. A bit late?

My pick for 30 June is $1-46.

;)

[BigBob]

Macquarie's have commenced coverage of NZO with a 12 month target of $1-70. A bit late?


Is that NZD or AUD...?

[macduffy]

Is that NZD or AUD...?

Sorry, BB. NZD.

;)

[BigBob]

Sorry, BB. NZD.

;)

Ah, well... :) still not too bad....

[COLIN]

Macquarie's have commenced coverage of NZO with a 12 month target of $1-70. A bit late?

My pick for 30 June is $1-46.

;)

Good to see that Macquarie agree with my pick (no, I don't work for them - wish I did, with their million dollar salaries).

[Bilo]

Macquarie's have commenced coverage of NZO with a 12 month target of $1-70. A bit late?

My pick for 30 June is $1-46.

;)
Does the Macquarie analysis assume conversion in their calcs?:)

[geezy]

Hi All.

Grats to all NZO holders

MacD I m pickin 1.67

[duncan macgregor]

Hi All.

Grats to all NZO holders

MacD I m pickin 1.67 Dont wish to be a spoil sport but you aint gonna win picking a number thats been called twice before. Have another go. Macdunk

[macduffy]

Does the Macquarie analysis assume conversion in their calcs?:)


Not included. A note that the 139m options are currently out of the money but "offer the potential for a cash injection at end of FY 08 ."

[Steve]

Wouldn't it be funny if the shareprice stayed below 1.50 until say July 1st?!

[the machine]

market looks set tohave a good friday as dowis happy

M

[duncan macgregor]

Duplicates on 145 156 165 171 172 and 175.

Only the first poster of any number can claim the win so carefull there lest Macdunk declare thee BRAIN DEAD

Mx The people who posted those numbers second and in one case third [GEEZY please have another go i will allow you to change otherwise you risk the call. Macdunk

[777]

I was first with 175 Duncan but you missed me however to fix things and keep everyone happy please change it to something silly like $2.25. Thanks.

[duncan macgregor]

I was first with 175 Duncan but you missed me however to fix things and keep everyone happy please change it to something silly like $2.25. Thanks.
777, you said that on page 176 of this thread. The competition started on page 177.
I only listed those picks after the competition started sorry. No need to make a silly pick as you called it. [ HAVAREALGOYAMUG] Macdunk

[777]

Thanks Duncan but leave it at $2.25. I may win yet.

[duncan macgregor]

[QUOTE=duncan macgregor;193997][QUOTE=duncan macgregor;193906]Competition to select NZO share price on conversion date June 30th
in the event of a tie the winner is the person with the correct score posting first
I will list you in posting order.
1,AMR 180c, 2, OILER 165c, 3,Macdunk 159c. 4,MATTYROO 158c.
5,SEAMUS 135c, 6,SERPIE 131c, 7, LIZ 120c, 8, STRAT157c.
9TRACKERS 168, 10, COLIN 170, 11,THE MACHINE 210c. 12,MALCOLM 200c.
13,SPOOK 172, 14,BIG BOB184c, 15,ZORBA 155c, 16, REMY 167c,
17 AMERICAN PSYCHO 175c 18 SHASTA 161c, 19RONTHEPOM 171c 20 PHAEDRUS 160.
21SHREWDY 169, 22 BERMUDA 149, 23 MORV 172c, 24 TIM23 165c,
25 DIGGER 173c, 26 PIETRADE 171c, 27 NITA 181c, 28 SUMMER NED 193c.
29 QOH 179c, 30 WK6332 225c 31 BALANCE $10-60 32 777 175c.
33 TOK3N 145c, 34 CLIPS 167c, 35CORRAN 156c, 36 MICK100 250c.
37 DSURF 154c, 38 SKEET 185c,39 MIBO 177c, 40 JAY 162c,
41 ZACMAN 187c, 42 GAMBLER33 115c, 43 BILO 156c, 44 BRUCETO9 164c.
45 romer 163c.46 HOOP 145c 47 RABBI 148c 48 ROTWEILLER 153c,
49 MINGEATHINAIOOS 150c,50 MANXMAN 195c, 51 MACDUFFY 146c, 52 BLOCKHEAD 198c,
53 777 225c,54 SWISSBOY 174c,55 AIRDALE166,56 CLIPS 178c,
57 PADDIE 196c,

[airedale]

Hi Duncan, 166 from Airedale

[swissboy]

Difficult to work out what numbers are available. Closest I can get to is 174

[Nitaa]

md.. can you put it on a spread sheet?

ps. hows your investments doing this month there guy?

[foodee]

OK DM
After listerning to analyst, fundamentalists, builders, farmers and all sorts including bullsh..., Foodee concluded that 176 is a good figure.
Too bad if someone else has picked it - I am only interested in being correct.:cool:

cheers

[blockhead]

After the AIA debacle, how "strategic" do we think our producing oil/coal company is ??

[Rif-Raf]

don't think that's taken

[Hoop]

OK DM
After listerning to analyst, fundamentalists, builders, farmers and all sorts including bullsh..., Foodee concluded that 176 is a good figure.
Too bad if someone else has picked it - I am only interested in being correct.:cool:

cheers

Likewise.

I heard little voices telling me 145...145...145... so it must be right.
Thats reminds me ....must take my pills. :rolleyes:

Hoop is second with 145 ... and Hoop is happy with that :)
Love the fun of it

[duncan macgregor]

md.. can you put it on a spread sheet?

ps. hows your investments doing this month there guy?IF ANYONE CAN DUNCAN.
numbers.
Numbers from 120c to 180c available at this point21,22,23, 24, 25, 26, 27,28,29,30,32,33,34,36,37, 38, 39,40,41,42,43,44,47,51,52,66,74,79,
The people who duplicated a number that requires changing are.
MORV, TIM23, PIETRADE,CLIPS, BILO, HOOP. RIFRAF,

Optimists are well in front at this stage Macdunk

[skeet]

Optimists are well in front at this stage Macdunk


Optimists are probably holding NZOOD!

[COLIN]

market looks set tohave a good friday as dowis happy

M

You've been reading the wrong teacups, my lad!
I'm feeling particularly depressed today.

[trackers]

IF ANYONE CAN DUNCAN.
numbers.
Numbers from 120c to 180c available at this point21,22,23, 24, 25, 26, 27,28,29,30,32,33,34,36,37, 38, 39,40,41,42,43,44,47,51,52,66,74,78,79,
The people who duplicated a number that requires changing are.
MORV, TIM23, PIETRADE,CLIPS, BILO, HOOP. RIFRAF,

Optimists are well in front at this stage Macdunk

I'm surprised that not every number under 150 is available at this stage, to be quite honest. Oh well, takes them all to make a marketplace huh?

[clips]

drop me in on 178 then.....

[Paddie]

Duncan,

$1.96 for me thanks.

Paddie

[duncan macgregor]

[QUOTE=duncan macgregor;194173][QUOTE=duncan macgregor;193997][QUOTE=duncan macgregor;193906]Competition to select NZO share price on conversion date June 30th
in the event of a tie the winner is the person with the correct score posting first
I will list you in posting order.
1,AMR 180c, 2, OILER 165c, 3,Macdunk 159c. 4,MATTYROO 158c.
5,SEAMUS 135c, 6,SERPIE 131c, 7, LIZ 120c, 8, STRAT157c.
9TRACKERS 168, 10, COLIN 170, 11,THE MACHINE 210c. 12,MALCOLM 200c.
13,SPOOK 172, 14,BIG BOB184c, 15,ZORBA 155c, 16, REMY 167c,
17 AMERICAN PSYCHO 175c 18 SHASTA 161c, 19RONTHEPOM 171c 20 PHAEDRUS 160.
21SHREWDY 169, 22 BERMUDA 149, 23 MORV 183c, 24 TIM23 165c,
25 DIGGER 173c, 26 PIETRADE 171c, 27 NITA 181c, 28 SUMMER NED 193c.
29 QOH 179c, 30 WK6332 225c 31 BALANCE $10-60 32 777 175c.
33 TOK3N 145c, 34 CLIPS 167c, 35CORRAN 156c, 36 MICK100 250c.
37 DSURF 154c, 38 SKEET 185c,39 MIBO 177c, 40 JAY 162c,
41 ZACMAN 187c, 42 GAMBLER33 115c, 43 BILO 156c, 44 BRUCETO9 164c.
45 romer 163c.46 HOOP 147c 47 RABBI 148c 48 ROTWEILLER 153c,
49 MINGEATHINAIOOS 150c,50 MANXMAN 195c, 51 MACDUFFY 146c, 52 BLOCKHEAD 198c,
53 777 225c,54 SWISSBOY 174c,55 AIRDALE166,56 CLIPS 178c,
57 PADDIE 196c,58 FOODEE 176, 59 BK160c,
TIM23,PIETRADE,777,CLIPS,BILO,BK, have duplicate selections please change.

[Mick100]

[quote=duncan macgregor;194173][quote=duncan macgregor;193997] Please dont select a number that hass already been picked only one winner in this competition first in best dressed. Macdunk

I don't mind if someone else picks my number - I will happily share the prize if I win :)

[duncan macgregor]

[quote=duncan macgregor;194310][quote=duncan macgregor;194173]

I don't mind if someone else picks my number - I will happily share the prize if I win :)Its like when i was in the ring MICK i was told no second prizes for coming second. This is not only a contest only about winning, its a contest of strategy which at the end places you in your own little pigeon box. All will be revealed at the end where even you might see yourself as you really are. We have clued up smart investors others that cant follow simple rules, plus others that act without thinking. Then we have strategists who work out likely outcomes, but finally we have the real clued up investor who thinks about it, then acts. I have you down as act without thinking, looking at your selection. I will explain at the end after the winner is declared so dont get mad, stop and think about it for a change. Macdunk

[Hoop]

IF ANYONE CAN DUNCAN.
numbers.
Numbers from 120c to 180c available at this point21,22,23, 24, 25, 26, 27,28,29,30,32,33,34,36,37, 38, 39,40,41,42,43,44,47,51,52,66,74,79,
The people who duplicated a number that requires changing are.
MORV, TIM23, PIETRADE,CLIPS, BILO, HOOP. RIFRAF,

Optimists are well in front at this stage Macdunk

Ok... if it requires a change,,,,can I go from the duplicated 145 to 147.....does that make me an optimist ? ;)

Thxs

[morv]

put me in at 174 if still available ,thanks

[duncan macgregor]

put me in at 174 if still available ,thanks sorry its gone try again. macdunk

[foodee]

DM
Did not see Foodee 176 on your latest. Perhaps it is already gone.
Not a problem as you seem pretty busy.

cheers

[bk]

could I have 166 please?

[bk]

on Bloomberg this beauty: oil price drops for second day in a row . . . . . to 110 a barrel. As if that suddenly is a low price!

Still I wonder how much is coke a barrel? And bottled water by the barrel? Oil is still cheap, just a pity my car drinks so much of it.

[bermuda]

on Bloomberg this beauty: oil price drops for second day in a row . . . . . to 110 a barrel. As if that suddenly is a low price!

Still I wonder how much is coke a barrel? And bottled water by the barrel? Oil is still cheap, just a pity my car drinks so much of it.

Yeah,

She could easily drop to $90 a barrel but she will be $150 by year end.

The Chinese have cornered the market up to $US200 by the way.

[bk]

Yeah,

She could easily drop to $90 a barrel but she will be $150 by year end.

The Chinese have cornered the market up to $US200 by the way.

Chines increase will more than take care of USA decrease, and Peak Oil will assure of a growing shortage of (cheap) crude oil. I agree, $150+ by the end of the year

My only worry is - will the options be in the money by 30/06? I have the conversion money ready, but would like to see a clear signal, not just around the $1.45-$1.55

so go mo mo ho! And first coal by 20/06 would be helpful too

[zorba]

.
BK,

Re option conversions ..... if you are keen to up your investment in NZOG, what about selling options now for 6 - 8 cents, buying heads at 142-144 cents, then overall cost of entry is say approx 136 - 138 cents . . . .

Just a thought

[blockhead]

.
BK,

Re option conversions ..... if you are keen to up your investment in NZOG, what about selling options now for 6 - 8 cents, buying heads at 142-144 cents, then overall cost of entry is say approx 136 - 138 cents . . . .

Just a thought

Chances are the options cost something though Zorb, so overall cost back towhere you started. There are no free lunches in this cruel world Zorb me ol mate !!

[duncan macgregor]

[QUOTE=duncan macgregor;194310][QUOTE=duncan macgregor;194173][QUOTE=duncan macgregor;193997][QUOTE=duncan macgregor;193906]Competition to select NZO share price on conversion date June 30th
in the event of a tie the winner is the person with the correct score posting first
I will list you in posting order.
1,AMR 180c, 2, OILER 165c, 3,Macdunk 159c. 4,MATTYROO 158c.
5,SEAMUS 135c, 6,SERPIE 131c, 7, LIZ 120c, 8, STRAT157c.
9TRACKERS 168, 10, COLIN 170, 11,THE MACHINE 210c. 12,MALCOLM 200c.
13,SPOOK 172, 14,BIG BOB184c, 15,ZORBA 155c, 16, REMY 167c,
17 AMERICAN PSYCHO 175c 18 SHASTA 161c, 19RONTHEPOM 171c 20 PHAEDRUS 160.
21SHREWDY 169, 22 BERMUDA 149, 23 MORV 183c, 24 TIM23 165c,
25 DIGGER 173c, 26 PIETRADE 171c, 27 NITA 181c, 28 SUMMER NED 193c.
29 QOH 179c, 30 WK6332 225c 31 BALANCE $10-60 32 777 175c.
33 TOK3N 145c, 34 CLIPS 167c, 35CORRAN 156c, 36 MICK100 300c.
37 DSURF 154c, 38 SKEET 185c,39 MIBO 177c, 40 JAY 162c,
41 ZACMAN 187c, 42 GAMBLER33 115c, 43 BILO 156c, 44 BRUCETO9 164c.
45 romer 163c.46 HOOP 147c 47 RABBI 148c 48 ROTWEILLER 153c,
49 MINGEATHINAIOOS 150c,50 MANXMAN 195c, 51 MACDUFFY 146c, 52 BLOCKHEAD 198c,
53 777 225c,54 SWISSBOY 174c,55 AIRDALE166,56 CLIPS 178c,
57 PADDIE 196c,58 FOODEE 176, 59 BK152c,60 MPC182c,
61 STEVE 151,62 ONTHEMONEY 143, 63 LION 186,

[MPC]

182 then thanks

[Steve]

I want 149 which I think is taken, if so could I pick 151? :)

[Onthemoney]

143 for me cheers

[bk]

can I have 152 please

[bk]

.
BK,

Re option conversions ..... if you are keen to up your investment in NZOG, what about selling options now for 6 - 8 cents, buying heads at 142-144 cents, then overall cost of entry is say approx 136 - 138 cents . . . .

Just a thought

I have been thinking about that, but don't have the money available yet. Interesting scenarios though:
(in all cases, the option did cost me 10 cents)

a) let it lapse => 10 cents loss
b) sell option for say 7 cents => 3 cents loss
c) sell option for 7 cents, buy head for 143 cents => have a head for 136 cents
d) convert option for 150 cents => have a head for 150 cents

if I want to wait and see how the share price develops I end up with a) or d), depending on how the share price goes by 30/06

if I want to limit my loss I should take b) or c), depending on my outlook for the share price.

Now I believe that NZO should really be $2 or more, so I am really only looking at c) or d). If I had the money now I would take c) - waiting for the dividend to execute at least some of my options in the c) scenario

[morv]

ill try 183

[Lion]

OK, I'll go for 186 thanks MacDunk

[skeet]

btw how do you go about converting?? I never had any intention to convert, but Im now swaying to sell half options pre 30/06 converting the rest.

[Lion]

btw how do you go about converting?? I never had any intention to convert, but Im now swaying to sell half options pre 30/06 converting the rest.

The NZOG site has a form you can print off and send off with your money

http://www.nzog.net/investorsSection/2008%20Options/NZOG%20EXERCISING%202008%20OPTION.pdf

P.S. I'm glad you corrected your grammar, but a pity you can't spell it!

[Wilkins_Micawber]

I have been thinking about that, but don't have the money available yet. Interesting scenarios though:
(in all cases, the option did cost me 10 cents)

a) let it lapse => 10 cents loss
b) sell option for say 7 cents => 3 cents loss
c) sell option for 7 cents, buy head for 143 cents => have a head for 136 cents
d) convert option for 150 cents => have a head for 150 cents

if I want to wait and see how the share price develops I end up with a) or d), depending on how the share price goes by 30/06

if I want to limit my loss I should take b) or c), depending on my outlook for the share price.

Now I believe that NZO should really be $2 or more, so I am really only looking at c) or d). If I had the money now I would take c) - waiting for the dividend to execute at least some of my options in the c) scenario

In options a & b you have included the cost of buying the options, therefore for fair comparison you should do likewise with c & d, which means shares under option c cost you $1.46 and under option d cost you $1.60.

If you have the money sitting in the bank now and believe the share price to be heading north then @ $1.46 you are paying only slightly over the odds for current price.

(If one believed the share is overpriced then option b would be best.)

[manxman]

I'm glad you corrected your grammar, but a pity you can't spell it!

If this site degenerates into a spelling bee, we will all be the poorer.

Mx

[tim23]

how do they pull a fast one!