NZ Oil & Gas (NZO)

[the machine]

Yeah,

She could easily drop to $90 a barrel but she will be $150 by year end.

The Chinese have cornered the market up to $US200 by the way.

Bermuda, can you please elaborate on the Chinese cornering the oil market up to usd$200.

Say if oil hits usd$200, that is actually less of an increase when compared to price increases for iron ore and coking coal.

Thanks

M

[bk]

In options a & b you have included the cost of buying the options, therefore for fair comparison you should do likewise with c & d, which means shares under option c cost you $1.46 and under option d cost you $1.60.

If you have the money sitting in the bank now and believe the share price to be heading north then @ $1.46 you are paying only slightly over the odds for current price.

(If one believed the share is overpriced then option b would be best.)

You're right, I should add my purchase cost to c) and d) as well. Trying to line up some funds to execute some of option c) [sell option now and buy head]




NZO requires large sums of money to continue prospecting, its not going to give out crumbs to feed the ducks like some of you quackers think. They might try and pull a fast one to get the price up for the options to get more money in but other than that you have had it. I would think you are on a downtrend regardless of what the fundamentals are. Macdunk

Interesting line of thought - I hope you are at least partially wrong because I am counting on the shareprice reaching $2.00 sometime next year. For that reason I have not been trading NZO but simply been investing, scared to miss out on a sudden (only) increasing share price

[bermuda]

Bermuda, can you please elaborate on the Chinese cornering the oil market up to usd$200.

Say if oil hits usd$200, that is actually less of an increase when compared to price increases for iron ore and coking coal.

Thanks

M

Hi Machine
The Chinese are very very hard working and very very bright and are brilliant forward planners.

For the last 5 years they have concentrated on the energy required for their growth.This requires oil. Oil production has plateaued. The Chinese need oil.

Hence they have established contracts with a whole host of suppliers, including Venezuela, (which incidentally supplies 25% of USA's needs ) by way of options up to $US200 a barrel.

And the way things are going these might well be exercised before too long.

Re your comment about iron ore and coking coal. Oil affects just about everything

[Balance]

Looks like TA is taking over again. Share price retracement underway.

But I think this time it will be different - it will not go much below $1.30.

[duncan macgregor]

Looks like TA is taking over again. Share price retracement underway.

But I think this time it will be different - it will not go much below $1.30. It has very little to do with TA balance. Most people that are TA traders are sitting out the market at the moment unless they make minor little plays for fun. The market in general is in bear territory due to the impending collapse of the American economy. NZO is doing rather well trying to battle the sp up past conversion level. Its look out for the downtrend after that which really depends on how the markets in general behave. Keep your eye on the American economy thats what will dictate the NZO sp more than the fundamentals of the company. Macdunk

[Wilkins_Micawber]

On Latest Nzog Annoucement Tui Still Pumping Over 44.000barels Per Day. Must Be On Target For 14million June 30th. Nog Share= ====1,650,000 Barrels .way Above Nog Forcast 1,300.000. Corect Me If I,m Wrong:):):)

Where about's did you see this announcement please (or can you post a copy)?.
If they are one track for 14 million then 12.5% = 1,750,000 barrels, and the latest figure on NZOs website for their expected share is 1,360,000 barrels, so the difference would be 390,000 barrels, which is over 28% above 1,360,000 :)

[the machine]

thanks bermuda re chinese cornering oil

M

[digger]

TUI Production till end of june 08.
At last release we have 10.9 million till end of 11 april. That means we have 80 days till end of june08. If we take the current official figures then we need an average daily production of 26,250 to get to the 13 million still targeted at 30 june. That seems realistly a bit low given the field has been holding up at 44000 a day for some time now on only three wells. I now guess we will see 14 million which is an average of 38,750 from now to end june---a very reasonable figure.

Tui sure has been a bumper success.

[Anubis]

I'll take $1.44 if it's still available - or nearest available number below it. I hope I'm wrong but I just have this uneasy feeling about what might happen in global markets over the next few months. NZO has stood up well to date, but I wouldn't be surprised to see more volatility to come. Even the price of oil could take a temporary dive (emphasis on temporary!!).

[skeet]

The NZOG site has a form you can print off and send off with your money

http://www.nzog.net/investorsSection/2008%20Options/NZOG%20EXERCISING%202008%20OPTION.pdf

P.S. I'm glad you corrected your grammar, but a pity you can't spell it!

Thanks for the link!

Btw whats wrong with the spelling??

[duncan macgregor]

Thanks for the link!

Btw whats wrong with the spelling?? Nuthin rong with the spellin as long as its understood. I take it EXERSIZE the options against EXCERCIZE or EXCERSIZE who cares its only nit picking. More to the point is ARE THE WORTH ANYTHING?. Macdunk

[Nitaa]

Nuthin rong with the spellin as long as its understood. I take it EXERSIZE the options against EXCERCIZE or EXCERSIZE who cares its only nit picking. More to the point is ARE THE WORTH ANYTHING?. MacdunkAs the options stands now yes of course they do. Will they worth anything in 2 months time of course they wont.

[Hoop]

Thanks for the link!

Btw whats wrong with the spelling??

Your edit on Post #2849 .....grammer!.

Bad luck Skeet you got caught by a eagle eyed Lion but I got away with mine :D:D:D:D:D:D:D:D (#111 http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?t=5171&page=8 )

[skeet]

Your edit on Post #2849 .....grammer!.

Bad luck Skeet you got caught by a eagle eyed Lion but I got away with mine :D:D:D:D:D:D:D:D (#111 http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?t=5171&page=8 )

lol was puzzled looking over my post!! :)

http://www.thefreedictionary.com/Grammer :p

... now back on topic!

[arjay]

Nuthin rong with the spellin as long as its understood. I take it EXERSIZE the options against EXCERCIZE or EXCERSIZE who cares its only nit picking. More to the point is ARE THE WORTH ANYTHING?. Macdunk

The options will either get EXERCISED or EXORCIZED. The difference might be important.

[duncan macgregor]

The options will either get EXERCISED or EXORCIZED. The difference might be important. I take it they might get home on a wing and a prayer then?.
Funny thing about that, its a little girl complaint i have never heard of a bloke requiring the treatment. The way the world markets are heading into recession my 159c in the competition might be a trifle high. Macdunk

[manxman]

The way the world markets are heading into recession my 159c in the competition might be a trifle high. Macdunk

Ain't no recession in the price of oil. With a big upgrade in TUI recoverable oil due before the exercise date you could be a bit low too McDunk.

See AWE are on the aquisition trail with all their spare TUI cash. Lots of corporate action possible later in the year. One possibility may be for NZO to buy out PPP's interest in TUI since the tax and royalty situation seems to mean that the oil in New Zealand is worth more to an NZ company than to an Australian one.

Any thoughts?

Mx

[Nitaa]

Ain't no recession in the price of oil. With a big upgrade in TUI recoverable oil due before the exercise date you could be a bit low too McDunk.

See AWE are on the aquisition trail with all their spare TUI cash. Lots of corporate action possible later in the year. One possibility may be for NZO to buy out PPP's interest in TUI since the tax and royalty situation seems to mean that the oil in New Zealand is worth more to an NZ company than to an Australian one.

Any thoughts?

MxI think NZO buying PPP is a dead duck. It would be a 180 if they sold PPP only to buy or takeover PPP 12 months later. Also they would simply be buying cash and and a little extra so to speak.

NZO could be on the radar of some aussie oilers but it would be afoolish person to invest into NZO on that hope. Just look what happened to AIA.

[arjay]

I take it they might get home on a wing and a prayer then?.
Funny thing about that, its a little girl complaint i have never heard of a bloke requiring the treatment. The way the world markets are heading into recession my 159c in the competition might be a trifle high. Macdunk

I vote for exorcism - I would have taken $1.49 but someone beat me to it.

[trackers]

More great news, bring on the end of June in my humble opinion....



14 April 2008
ELEVEN MILLION BARRELS OF TUI OIL

Production from the Tui oilfields off the coast of Taranaki has now reached 11
million barrels of oil.
New Zealand Oil and Gas Ltd (NZOG) is the New Zealand-based partner in the
Tui Area Oil Fields, with a 12.5% stake.
Production began on 30 July last year and yesterday total production to date
passed the 11 million barrel mark. NZOG’s share of production to date is
approximately 1.38 million barrels.
The field performance has continued to be better than forecast. Associated water
is being produced from the field, but this continues to be at lower rates than
expected from original field simulation models.
The average daily oil production
has stayed above 40,000 barrels, but this is expected to decline in coming months.

Based on the continued performance of the reservoirs, the operator AWE is
undertaking a reserves review to match field performance against actual and
expected production. This is expected to be completed by the end of June 2008.
ENDS

[Mick100]

More great news, bring on the end of June in my humble opinion....

Based on the continued performance of the reservoirs, the operator AWE is
undertaking a reserves review to match field performance against actual and
expected production. This is expected to be completed by the end of June 2008.


better raise my 30th june estimate of NZO shareprice to $3.00 macklunk

crude should be over $120/bbl by then;)
.

[duncan macgregor]

[QUOTE=duncan macgregor;194367][QUOTE=duncan macgregor;194310][QUOTE=duncan macgregor;194173][QUOTE=duncan macgregor;193997][QUOTE=duncan macgregor;193906]Competition to select NZO share price on conversion date June 30th
in the event of a tie the winner is the person with the correct score posting first
I will list you in posting order.
1,AMR 180c, 2, OILER 165c, 3,Macdunk 159c. 4,MATTYROO 158c.
5,SEAMUS 135c, 6,SERPIE 131c, 7, LIZ 120c, 8, STRAT157c.
9TRACKERS 168, 10, COLIN 170, 11,THE MACHINE 210c. 12,MALCOLM 200c.
13,SPOOK 172, 14,BIG BOB184c, 15,ZORBA 155c, 16, REMY 167c,
17 AMERICAN PSYCHO 175c 18 SHASTA 161c, 19RONTHEPOM 171c 20 PHAEDRUS 160.
21SHREWDY 169, 22 BERMUDA 149, 23 MORV 183c, 24 blank
25 DIGGER 173c, 26 blank, 27 NITA 181c, 28 SUMMER NED 193c.
29 QOH 179c, 30 WK6332 225c 31 BALANCE $10-60 32 blank
33 TOK3N 145c, 34 blank, 35CORRAN 156c, 36 MICK100 300c.
37 DSURF 154c, 38 SKEET 185c,39 MIBO 177c, 40 JAY 162c,
41 ZACMAN 187c, 42 GAMBLER33 115c, 43 blank, 44 BRUCETO9 164c.
45 romer 163c.46 HOOP 147c 47 RABBI 148c 48 ROTWEILLER 153c,
49 MINGEATHINAIOOS 150c,50 MANXMAN 195c, 51 MACDUFFY 146c, 52 BLOCKHEAD 198c,
53 777 225c,54 SWISSBOY 174c,55 AIRDALE166,56 CLIPS 178c,
57 PADDIE 196c,58 FOODEE 176, 59 BK152c,60 MPC182c,
61 STEVE 151,62 ONTHEMONEY 143, 63 LION 186,

[trackers]

Who am i to argue MICK100

A rare concession?? :)

[Rabbi]

A good day for NZO considering the overall market is down.

Seems to be finding solid support in the low 1-40,s thus it appears the
market has re-rated NZO on the basis of present and future cashflow.

[Hoop]

[quote=duncan macgregor;194310][quote=duncan macgregor;194173][quote=duncan macgregor;193997][quote=duncan macgregor;193906]Competition to select NZO share price on conversion date June 30th
in the event of a tie the winner is the person with the correct score posting first
I will list you in posting order.
1,AMR 180c, 2, OILER 165c, 3,Macdunk 159c. 4,MATTYROO 158c.
5,SEAMUS 135c, 6,SERPIE 131c, 7, LIZ 120c, 8, STRAT157c.
9TRACKERS 168, 10, COLIN 170, 11,THE MACHINE 210c. 12,MALCOLM 200c.
13,SPOOK 172, 14,BIG BOB184c, 15,ZORBA 155c, 16, REMY 167c,
17 AMERICAN PSYCHO 175c 18 SHASTA 161c, 19RONTHEPOM 171c 20 PHAEDRUS 160.
21SHREWDY 169, 22 BERMUDA 149, 23 MORV 183c, 24 TIM23 165c,
25 DIGGER 173c, 26 PIETRADE 171c, 27 NITA 181c, 28 SUMMER NED 193c.
29 QOH 179c, 30 WK6332 225c 31 BALANCE $10-60 32 777 175c.
33 TOK3N 145c, 34 CLIPS 167c, 35CORRAN 156c, 36 MICK100 300c.
37 DSURF 154c, 38 SKEET 185c,39 MIBO 177c, 40 JAY 162c,
41 ZACMAN 187c, 42 GAMBLER33 115c, 43 BILO 156c, 44 BRUCETO9 164c.
45 romer 163c.46 HOOP 147c 47 RABBI 148c 48 ROTWEILLER 153c,
49 MINGEATHINAIOOS 150c,50 MANXMAN 195c, 51 MACDUFFY 146c, 52 BLOCKHEAD 198c,
53 777 225c,54 SWISSBOY 174c,55 AIRDALE166,56 CLIPS 178c,
57 PADDIE 196c,58 FOODEE 176, 59 BK152c,60 MPC182c,
61 STEVE 151,62 ONTHEMONEY 143, 63 LION 186,

McD
777 seems to in twice one at post order 32 the other at 53.

I assume 777 hasn't a twin ...and seems to have got more optimistic about NZO lately as well :)

[777]

...........

[digger]

Based on the continued performance of the reservoirs, the operator AWE is
undertaking a reserves review to match field performance against actual and
expected production. This is expected to be completed by the end of June 2008.


better raise my 30th june estimate of NZO shareprice to $3.00 macklunk

crude should be over $120/bbl by then;)
.

Mick100,before you raise your estimate to 3-00,what do you read into the reserve estimate? I know very little about this new law in Aus where tax has to be paid on a upgrade. If that is so,why would AWE put itself in a taxable position by recognizing a reserve upgrade.
As well as Mick100 does anyone understand this new law who would like to pass on the info?

[duncan macgregor]

[quote=duncan macgregor;194367][quote=duncan macgregor;194310][quote=duncan macgregor;194173][quote=duncan macgregor;193997]

McD
777 seems to in twice one at post order 32 the other at 53.

I assume 777 hasn't a twin ...and seems to have got more optimistic about NZO lately as well :)Simple explanation 175 was already taken he had a second pick. Silly old macdunk should have taken it off. No worries its the first one to the correct number his first pick was invalid. Macdunk

[Mick100]

Mick100,before you raise your estimate to 3-00,what do you read into the reserve estimate? I know very little about this new law in Aus where tax has to be paid on a upgrade. If that is so,why would AWE put itself in a taxable position by recognizing a reserve upgrade.
As well as Mick100 does anyone understand this new law who would like to pass on the info?

Digger, I don't know anything about AWE's tax situation with regards to reserves

I upped my estimate of NZO shareprice based on;
-momoho, commercial discovery (looking better than a 50/50 chance)
-reserve upgrade at tui
-oil price continues climbing to USD 125.00 over northern hemisphere summer
-and unlike most others, I'm positive on the general market conditions over the next 6 months - Mr bear is on his way back to his cave
.

[Paddie]

Hi Mick,

Bermuda is also bullish about Momoho.

The oppies will run down to the wire.

Paddie

I hope you are right about Mr Bear.

[wk6332]

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[quote=duncan macgregor;194367][quote=duncan macgregor;194310][quote=duncan macgregor;194173][quote=duncan macgregor;193997]
Quote:
Originally Posted by duncan macgregor
Competition to select NZO share price on conversion date June 30th
in the event of a tie the winner is the person with the correct score posting first
I will list you in posting order.
1,AMR 180c, 2, OILER 165c, 3,Macdunk 159c. 4,MATTYROO 158c.
5,SEAMUS 135c, 6,SERPIE 131c, 7, LIZ 120c, 8, STRAT157c.
9TRACKERS 168, 10, COLIN 170, 11,THE MACHINE 210c. 12,MALCOLM 200c.
13,SPOOK 172, 14,BIG BOB184c, 15,ZORBA 155c, 16, REMY 167c,
17 AMERICAN PSYCHO 175c 18 SHASTA 161c, 19RONTHEPOM 171c 20 PHAEDRUS 160.
21SHREWDY 169, 22 BERMUDA 149, 23 MORV 183c, 24 TIM23 165c,
25 DIGGER 173c, 26 PIETRADE 171c, 27 NITA 181c, 28 SUMMER NED 193c.
29 QOH 179c, 30 WK6332 225c 31 BALANCE $10-60 32 777 175c.
33 TOK3N 145c, 34 CLIPS 167c, 35CORRAN 156c, 36 MICK100 300c.
37 DSURF 154c, 38 SKEET 185c,39 MIBO 177c, 40 JAY 162c,
41 ZACMAN 187c, 42 GAMBLER33 115c, 43 BILO 156c, 44 BRUCETO9 164c.
45 romer 163c.46 HOOP 147c 47 RABBI 148c 48 ROTWEILLER 153c,
49 MINGEATHINAIOOS 150c,50 MANXMAN 195c, 51 MACDUFFY 146c, 52 BLOCKHEAD 198c,
53 777 225c,54 SWISSBOY 174c,55 AIRDALE166,56 CLIPS 178c,
57 PADDIE 196c,58 FOODEE 176, 59 BK152c,60 MPC182c,
61 STEVE 151,62 ONTHEMONEY 143, 63 LION 186,

McD
777 seems to in twice one at post order 32 the other at 53.

I assume 777 hasn't a twin ...and seems to have got more optimistic about NZO lately as well


777 please pick again 225 has gone, No 30.

An announcement by Salvus Strategic Investments today, its good to see that they see nzog as a good buy , pitty they are very small.

SAM
14/04/2008
NTA

REL: 1305 HRS Salvus Strategic Investments Limited

NTA: SAM: NTA as at 11/4/2008

Salvus Strategic Investments Limited has provided the following:

The unaudited net asset value per ordinary share of the Company as at 11
April 2008 was $1.1638. The five largest portfolio holdings at 11 April 2008
are as follows:

Abano Healthcare Group 20.5%
Methven 17.3%
Energy World Corporation 11.8%
New Zealand Oil & Gas 10.5%
Hallenstein Glasson 7.5%

Company Overview:

Salvus Strategic Investments Limited (SSI) is a unique listed investment
company set up to invest in a diversified portfolio of securities in the New
Zealand smaller company sector

[Nitaa]

Hi Mick,

Bermuda is also bullish about Momoho.

The oppies will run down to the wire.

Paddie

I hope you are right about Mr Bear.You know its really hard to tell. come 2 months time the oppies could be so far in the money it will make that everyone will be pssed off we didnt have more of it. the other side is nzo slowly or quickly drift down to $1.10 - $1.20 and the famous parcel will have nothing left but hot air.

Actually i am not too perterb either way. Options dont get excercised and my heads arent ddiluted. Insurance wise if options are in the money then i have it covered with a small amount to be converted.

Interesting piece by NZO and a sure sign that their preference is for options to be converted. Mentioning the better than expected news for tui.. possible upgrade.. all this they dont really need to announce as its not new information. However the average investor it will be new so more exposure, more media coverage and as long its the truth then keep the news coming.

Duncan.. do you have excel? might make your job a tad easier.. keep up the good work with your competition. Whatever you do dont let anyone take my 181.

[duncan macgregor]

[QUOTE=duncan macgregor;194645][QUOTE=duncan macgregor;194367][QUOTE=duncan macgregor;194310][QUOTE=duncan macgregor;194173][QUOTE=duncan macgregor;193997][QUOTE=duncan macgregor;193906]Competition to select NZO share price on conversion date June 30th
in the event of a tie the winner is the person with the correct score posting first
I will list you in posting order.
1,AMR 180c, 2, OILER 165c, 3,Macdunk 159c. 4,MATTYROO 158c.
5,SEAMUS 135c, 6,SERPIE 131c, 7, LIZ 120c, 8, STRAT157c.
9TRACKERS 168, 10, COLIN 170, 11,THE MACHINE 210c. 12,MALCOLM 200c.
13,SPOOK 172, 14,BIG BOB184c, 15,ZORBA 155c, 16, REMY 167c,
17 AMERICAN PSYCHO 175c 18 SHASTA 161c, 19RONTHEPOM 171c 20 PHAEDRUS 160.
21SHREWDY 169, 22 BERMUDA 149, 23 MORV 183c, 24 ZAC 177c
25 DIGGER 173c, 26 blank, 27 NITA 181c, 28 SUMMER NED 193c.
29 QOH 179c, 30 WK6332 225c 31 BALANCE $10-60 32 KS 162,
33 TOK3N 145c, 34 SHANE M 162.5c, 35CORRAN 156c, 36 MICK100 300c.
37 DSURF 154c, 38 SKEET 185c,39 MIBO 177c, 40 JAY 162c,
41 ZACMAN 187c, 42 GAMBLER33 115c, 43 blank, 44 BRUCETO9 164c.
45 romer 163c.46 HOOP 147c 47 RABBI 148c 48 ROTWEILLER 153c,
49 MINGEATHINAIOOS 150c,50 MANXMAN 195c, 51 MACDUFFY 146c, 52 BLOCKHEAD 198c,
53 777 226c,54 SWISSBOY 174c,55 AIRDALE166,56 CLIPS 178c,
57 PADDIE 196c,58 FOODEE 176, 59 BK152c,60 MPC182c,
61 STEVE 151,62 ONTHEMONEY 143, 63 LION 186,

[dsurf]

Digger, I don't know anything about AWE's tax situation with regards to reserves

I upped my estimate of NZO shareprice based on;
-momoho, commercial discovery (looking better than a 50/50 chance)
-reserve upgrade at tui
-oil price continues climbing to USD 125.00 over northern hemisphere summer
-and unlike most others, I'm positive on the general market conditions over the next 6 months - Mr bear is on his way back to his cave
.

Mr bear is on his way back to his cave

That is a failrly common view internationally based on following scenario.

Governments (especially US) hand out cheques, support mortages etc
Reserve Banks print money like no tomorrow.

Which creates a huge liquidity

The spring tide comes in (2nd half of 2008) raisng all boats

then when the tide goes out???????

[777]

Duncan wk6332 is right, he has 225 ahead of me.

Please change mine to 226 or something near if I have screwed that one up to.

[duncan macgregor]

Duncan wk6332 is right, he has 225 ahead of me.

Please change mine to 226 or something near if I have screwed that one up to.its done 777. I didnt bother to check out the rank outside numbers. Macdunk

[zac]

Put me in for $1.77. (my only concern is that McDunk has a large stash of oppies to use to knock the price back to his pessimistic prophecies just before close of play on June 30).

[duncan macgregor]

Put me in for $1.77. (my only concern is that McDunk has a large stash of oppies to use to knock the price back to his pessimistic prophecies just before close of play on June 30).ZAC my boy Macdunk has picked 159c which is being optimistic. I stuck you in on one of the blanks good luck.

[KS]

Duncan,

please put me down for 162c.

Thanks

[duncan macgregor]

Duncan,

please put me down for 162c.

ThanksWell done you noticed then. Macdunk

[Hoop]

Digger, I don't know anything about AWE's tax situation with regards to reserves

I upped my estimate of NZO shareprice based on;
-momoho, commercial discovery (looking better than a 50/50 chance)
-reserve upgrade at tui
-oil price continues climbing to USD 125.00 over northern hemisphere summer
-and unlike most others, I'm positive on the general market conditions over the next 6 months - Mr bear is on his way back to his cave
.

For NZO's sake I hope Mr bear is not on his way to his cave....The first sign of a maturing bear market phase will be the drop in commodity prices..oil being one such commodity.

All to do with the suppy/demand theory and the inverted curve ya de ya stuff.

[zorba]

Oil price pushes past 112$ / barrel ......

http://futures.tradingcharts.com/intraday/CL_/58

[Dr_Who]

This is an interesting graph.

Notice how OPEC production has gone up significantly, yet the oil price has also gone up. This tells a story, maybe OPEC is pumping at max levels and peak oil is here.

[bermuda]

This is an interesting graph.

Notice how OPEC production has gone up significantly, yet the oil price has also gone up. This tells a story, maybe OPEC is pumping at max levels and peak oil is here.

Dr Who, Thanks for that graph. The Saudi's are going flat out and it is a hell of a worry.

Oil production Peaked in 2005.

With a mindset on conservation the western world will be able to reduce demand but try telling that to the Chinese and Indians. The chinese are putting 10000 cars on the road....PER DAY.

Oil goes higher.....and so does NZO.

[duncan macgregor]

Dr Who, Thanks for that graph. The Saudi's are going flat out and it is a hell of a worry.

Oil production Peaked in 2005.

With a mindset on conservation the western world will be able to reduce demand but try telling that to the Chinese and Indians. The chinese are putting 10000 cars on the road....PER DAY.

Oil goes higher.....and so does NZO. What a western attitude you have BERMUDA.
The chinese and indians per population only have a very low ratio of cars or indeed polution
than their western counterparts. China as a country has only just past the USA as the worlds largest poluter. On an individual basis an American Is three times worse than a Chinaman. The Chinese say carbon emissions should be based on an individual basis not on a country basis. Macdunk

[arjay]

What a western attitude you have BERMUDA.
The chinese and indians per population only have a very low ratio of cars or indeed polution
than their western counterparts. China as a country has only just past the USA as the worlds largest poluter. On an individual basis an American Is three times worse than a Chinaman. The Chinese say carbon emissions should be based on an individual basis not on a country basis. Macdunk

McDunk,
I think the point being made is that the world's car population is being rapidly added to by a few emerging economies at the same time as the world has reached it's limit to supply the extra oil to run the things. Doesn't matter who's doing the adding, the effect is the same.

[bermuda]

What a western attitude you have BERMUDA.
The chinese and indians per population only have a very low ratio of cars or indeed polution
than their western counterparts. China as a country has only just past the USA as the worlds largest poluter. On an individual basis an American Is three times worse than a Chinaman. The Chinese say carbon emissions should be based on an individual basis not on a country basis. Macdunk

I think you may have missed my point MacDunk.

The point I was trying to make was that China's thirst ( and India's ) for energy is growing at a huge pace. A bit like a snowball starting down Mt Everest. No wonder China has spent the last few years tying up oil contracts up to $US200 a barrel.

No one will deny them this time.They have spent so many years being oppressed that it's time to rule the world.

Get your grandkids to learn Chinese. It will be the best present you ever gave them.

[skeet]

Get your grandkids to learn Chinese. It will be the best present you ever gave them.

... Get your grandkids to teach the Chinese English!

[Dr_Who]

... Get your grandkids to teach the Chinese English!

Thats exactly what they are doing with the elite private schools in China. I think there was a piece on it in 60 mins or Campbell live, cant remember which one. The funny thing is that some of the Chinese can write better English then some of us here.. LOL

[Hoop]

I hope you haven't minded Dr Who ...I've butchered your chart (up to May 2007) somewhat to illustrate my previous post about supply and demand and the inverted curve during and after recessions.

I have drawn a blue vertical line which shows the start of a USA recession and the blue horizontal line at the bottom shows the duration. There were two recessions (officially) 1980 -81 and 1982-83 I cheated here by not drawing a blue vertical line up at 1982 because I believe a 0.1 quarter growth which broke the official version of a recession is stupid... really!.. it was a 1980-83 recession to most people.

It is interesting to see that at the start of a USA recession prices were maximum and they tapered downwards by the end of each recession.

Notice in this last decade that another very strong factor(s) ??? (peak oil??) (China/India++ demand??) has emerged in pushing up the oil price ($110) . This is a counter-trend from the previous 3 decades cycles.
++ I personally think it is due mostly to the China and India factor.

Notice also that after each recession... falling oil production with falling prices ...a lack of demand pushing the prices down.

Some other spooky fiqures Recession dates, beginning of each decade there seems to be a recession 1960-61 ... 70-71 ... 74-76 ... 80-81(83) ... 90-91 ... 2001-02.

With this counter trend in progress and a not yet confirmed lengthy recession as you can see it will be very hard to predict the future outcome of oil prices this time around... but by theory they should peak at the onset of the official start date of the USA recession and then taper downward again.

Downwards in early 2009???

[shane_m]

my entry 162c.

well done for those who survived attacks from MD and sniper.

I am looking at cashing in on the peak.

disc: holding since 86c, no options.

[shane_m]

162c taken ? let try 162.5c

cheers

[duncan macgregor]

162c taken ? let try 162.5c

cheers Have done but i think it will only end up at the nearest cent. Macdunk

[digger]

162c taken ? let try 162.5c

cheers

On my maths 62.5 is 63
And 62.4 is 62.


I think DM or someone else with spreadsheet should list this competition in numeric order,then it would be easy to see which whole number[get that shane]is still available.

[skeet]

Can some please explain how the market can be in positive today, oil price on the rise, NZOG outlook looking good and the sp drops 2c. I know its not the end of the day, and it might pick up before close. But I can't get my head round it, profit taking??

[Drone]

Hi all

Just thinking out loud - say the oppies are in the money and the bulk of them are exercised leading to a massive increase in shares on issue, now a lot of those new shares perhaps would have been paid for by borrowing money or selling down other parts of people's portfolio (i.e those holdings won't be a "natural" part of ppls portfolios). Do you think that over the conversion period the shareprice is unlikely to do much to the upside as people dump newly accquired shares in the market?

i.e as the price gets to perhaps around the $1.55 mark (or even less if we are getting close to 30 Jun) then it might be a good time to exit the head shares and watch from the sidelines till all those extra shares find their natural homes? Even instos will likely have to re-weight if they hold oppies I would think.

Thoughts?

[duncan macgregor]

[QUOTE=duncan macgregor;194757][QUOTE=duncan macgregor;194645][QUOTE=duncan macgregor;194367][QUOTE=duncan macgregor;194310][QUOTE=duncan macgregor;194173][QUOTE=duncan macgregor;193997][QUOTE=duncan macgregor;193906]Competition to select NZO share price on conversion date June 30th
in the event of a tie the winner is the person with the correct score posting first
I will list you in posting order.
1,AMR 180c, 2, OILER 165c, 3,Macdunk 159c. 4,MATTYROO 158c.
5,SEAMUS 135c, 6,SERPIE 131c, 7, LIZ 120c, 8, STRAT157c.
9TRACKERS 168, 10, COLIN 170, 11,THE MACHINE 210c. 12,MALCOLM 200c.
13,SPOOK 172, 14,BIG BOB184c, 15,ZORBA 155c, 16, REMY 167c,
17 AMERICAN PSYCHO 175c 18 SHASTA 161c, 19RONTHEPOM 171c 20 PHAEDRUS 160.
21SHREWDY 169, 22 BERMUDA 149, 23 MORV 183c, 24 ZAC 177c
25 DIGGER 173c, 26 blank, 27 NITA 181c, 28 SUMMER NED 193c.
29 QOH 179c, 30 WK6332 225c 31 BALANCE $10-60 32 KS 162,
33 TOK3N 145c, 34 SHANE M 162.5c, 35CORRAN 156c, 36 MICK100 300c.
37 DSURF 154c, 38 SKEET 185c,39 MIBO 177c, 40 JAY 162c,
41 ZACMAN 187c, 42 GAMBLER33 115c, 43 ANUBUS144c, 44 BRUCETO9 164c.
45 romer 163c.46 HOOP 147c 47 RABBI 148c 48 ROTWEILLER 153c,
49 MINGEATHINAIOOS 150c,50 MANXMAN 195c, 51 MACDUFFY 146c, 52 BLOCKHEAD 198c,
53 777 226c,54 SWISSBOY 174c,55 AIRDALE166,56 CLIPS 178c,
57 PADDIE 196c,58 FOODEE 176, 59 BK152c,60 MPC182c,
61 STEVE 151,62 ONTHEMONEY 143, 63 LION 186,

[QOH]

I see the dividend is in the bank account. :-)

[blockhead]

I see the dividend is in the bank account. :-)

What bank you with , I'm with Westpac and nothing showing yet, bought 2500 PRC with it in anticipation anyway

[QOH]

I see the dividend is in the bank account. :-)

ANZ ..........

[Nitaa]

What bank you with , I'm with Westpac and nothing showing yet, bought 2500 PRC with it in anticipation anywayWhich bank?

[digger]

Can some please explain how the market can be in positive today, oil price on the rise, NZOG outlook looking good and the sp drops 2c. I know its not the end of the day, and it might pick up before close. But I can't get my head round it, profit taking??


Sheet i do not think it is profit taking.This happen a lot when a share is being accumulated.Research has shown that long term accumulation is cheapest where approx 1in 5 to 1in 10 of the shares are sold back to the market when at the same time the buyer pulls out. Do that for a day or so and sellers get flushed out.It is an old and a legal trick that pays a good dividend.Solution---do not sell a uptrending share that has good fundamentals.

[blockhead]

Which bank?

Nita !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!......... .............. !!

Read the post, "I'm with Westpac" a major clue perhaps

[bermuda]

Can some please explain how the market can be in positive today, oil price on the rise, NZOG outlook looking good and the sp drops 2c. I know its not the end of the day, and it might pick up before close. But I can't get my head round it, profit taking??

Skeet,
Chill . This is a class stock.

[AMR]

Skeet, it is a normal retracement. Prices need to build a base before continuing the upwards surge. If you look at the volumes closely the up days have much higher volumes than the down days. Now is in fact the time to buy (actually, the best place to buy would be if it touches the old resistance at 135 again, but it doesn't seem likely)

[Nitaa]

Nita !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!......... .............. !!

Read the post, "I'm with Westpac" a major clue perhapsThat was meant to be a joke.

Doesnt that advertisement used to go "which bank".....nope i am refering to comonwealth bank in australia.. (maybe a fine aussie bloke may know what i am talking about.

sorry bout the misunderstanding there big guy.

[bermuda]

... Get your grandkids to teach the Chinese English!


Skeet...and MacDunk,
Please read the latest articles (April 15th ) on energybulletin.net to get an update on what I mean.

Peak oil is here right before our very eyes. It is a very critical situation.

And like an incidental............Oil goes higher.

[zorba]

And Kar-booom, price of oil sets new record - pusshes past $113 / barrel:

http://futures.tradingcharts.com/intraday/CL_/58

[Nitaa]

And Kar-booom, price of oil sets new record - pusshes past $113 / barrel:

http://futures.tradingcharts.com/intraday/CL_/58Nita here is going to stick her neck out. oil to reach minimum of $200 / barrel by end of 2009. Possibly up to $250 or or more by 2010.

Simple reason is thirst from the developing countries. Even if the US decline or stabilize over the next year, the Chinas and Indias of this world are not slowing down. They will maybe to 5% growth instead of the crazy 9 and 10% growth they have been experiencing.

It will also take another couple of years before oil companys start increasing and pumping the stuff out of the ground to the point where it will have a significant effect on price. What will happen is the likes of the GSB and other places now become a bit more attractive.

Make no mistake.. what goes up will come down but oil prices have a good 2 or 3 years left before alternative energies and oversupply will have any reasonable effect.

The spike this time round will be more severe than during the seventies and so will the drop.

I expect a big crash or at the very least a huge correction in oil prices in 2010. What will be scary is if this happens to be a precurser of something bigger to follow.. eg $500 / barrel by 2015

[Paddie]

What bank you with , I'm with Westpac and nothing showing yet, bought 2500 PRC with it in anticipation anyway

Hi Blockhead,

Dividend payment in bank account this morning (ASB)

Paddie

[fish]

Tapis price is steadily rising over us $118 - nz dollar fell sharply overnight - got back into the oppies at 5.6 yesterday-and woke to find my best divi ever in my bank account.


my financial life looks like being fun over the next 10 weeks.
I wonder when the institutions wake up to what is happening - but I am ambivalent about the price rising too much-have doubled my nzo holdings over past 12 months and will keep accumulating at current prices

[blockhead]

Yep, NOG divvy in the Westpac a/c this morn, had to get Mrs Blocky in to see it for herself, she tends to remember more NOG bad times than NOG goodtimes, I have always been one of those "dumb idiots" McDuck refers to as a stupid NOG follower, or some similar such verse.

Ah Nita, I missed the jest in your comment earlier, Cheers !!

[Anubis]

[QUOTE=duncan macgregor;194757][QUOTE=duncan macgregor;194645][QUOTE=duncan macgregor;194367][QUOTE=duncan macgregor;194310][QUOTE=duncan macgregor;194173][QUOTE=duncan macgregor;193997]we still have with a dollar in front 30,32, 33,34,36,37,38,39,40,41,42,44,77,85,88,89, available.

I put my hand up for $1.44 a couple of pages back. This contrarian stance on my part is looking increasingly silly with oil making new highs, but I'll stick to it. Mr Bear might be back in his cave but I'm not convinced that he's sleeping.

Long term (6-12 month) view still very bullish, short term (next 3-6 months) I'm not so sure - hope I'm wrong!

[duncan macgregor]

Yep, NOG divvy in the Westpac a/c this morn, had to get Mrs Blocky in to see it for herself, she tends to remember more NOG bad times than NOG goodtimes, I have always been one of those "dumb idiots" McDuck refers to as a stupid NOG follower, or some similar such verse.

Ah Nita, I missed the jest in your comment earlier, Cheers !! Dont be to hard on yourself BLOCKY the good lady will see how smart you are if you dump them at the conversion spike up. Three and a half years for a few cents gain where some of the more astute investors more than doubled their money. I think if they get over the $1-50 it wont be by much in this market.
Its the market you want to pay attention to not the price of oil. The market this year is showing all the signs of a major correction coming up. I predicted 2008 to be a bad year turning into a very bad year money, where the mouth is as usual its in the bank.
Why do you think the NZO sp is so low when all the fundamentals say otherwise?. The TA conversion price is sitting on $1-55 to $1-60 with the FA conversion price at about $1-80. The market in general is showing all the signs of heading into recession taking all and sundry with it. Macdunk

[bk]

Hi Blockhead,

Dividend payment in bank account this morning (ASB)

Paddie

I'm with ANZ, but no sign of the divi yet. Should I have specified somewhere somehow where I wanted it? I'm also with Direct Broking, no sign there either. Want to use the divi to buy a few heads while they're down if I can - especially with oil at record highs and only one way to go (UP)

[Ripping]

I'm with ANZ, but no sign of the divi yet. Should I have specified somewhere somehow where I wanted it? I'm also with Direct Broking, no sign there either. Want to use the divi to buy a few heads while they're down if I can - especially with oil at record highs and only one way to go (UP)

Got mine last night through ASB. top-up shares or a 58" plasma ? decisions, decisions !! :D

[Wilkins_Micawber]

I'm with ANZ, but no sign of the divi yet. Should I have specified somewhere somehow where I wanted it? I'm also with Direct Broking, no sign there either. Want to use the divi to buy a few heads while they're down if I can - especially with oil at record highs and only one way to go (UP)

If you have supplied bank account details to the share registry then the money should have gone in to your bank account overnight. However, if you bought the shares not long before the ex-divi date then it is quite possible that the divi will come to you via your share broker - this is what has happened to me occassionally with Direct Broking anyway.

[KS]

I'm with ANZ, but no sign of the divi yet. Should I have specified somewhere somehow where I wanted it? I'm also with Direct Broking, no sign there either. Want to use the divi to buy a few heads while they're down if I can - especially with oil at record highs and only one way to go (UP)

NZO moved from Link Market Services (was BK Registries) to Computershare on 9 March 2007.
NZO recently sent a letter asking for dividend payment instructions. Computershare may already have your instructions (common for all shares registered through them).
If your dividend goes to Direct Broking, someone has to put it into your call account, so there may be a short delay.
If Computershare have no direct credit instructions, dividends will be sent by cheque.

[bk]

If you have supplied bank account details to the share registry then the money should have gone in to your bank account overnight. However, if you bought the shares not long before the ex-divi date then it is quite possible that the divi will come to you via your share broker - this is what has happened to me occassionally with Direct Broking anyway.

Thanks, that explains it - I thought the share registry had my details, but the bank details were blank , hence they are sending me a cheque.

[Sehnsucht888]

Mine has just appeared in my Direct Broking call account. Wasn't there an hour ago, but I guess they had a few to process.

[sideline]

..............

Make no mistake.. what goes up will come down but oil prices have a good 2 or 3 years left before alternative energies and oversupply will have any reasonable effect.

The spike this time round will be more severe than during the seventies and so will the drop.

I expect a big crash or at the very least a huge correction in oil prices in 2010. What will be scary is if this happens to be a precurser of something bigger to follow.. eg $500 / barrel by 2015

I don't think oversupply will be an issue in the next few decades. Any big oil discoveries now only
fill the gaps created by the declines of the existing big oil fields and slow down the overall decline
of reserves.
Only if oil gets replaced by something else as an energy source an oversupply would be conceivable.
There is none on the horizon, and if one were found it would take decades to build
the infrastructure and replace the fleet
There are vehicles being developed which could reduce the fleets' fuel consumption if they were widely
adopted, like the 1 liter car developed by VW http://www.seriouswheels.com/cars/top-vw-1-liter-car.htm (using 1 ltr of diesel to travel 100km).
Not exactly your average family vehicle though, but it could make a dent.

[tim23]

Dunacn let it go! NOG has been a great performer and you know it, maybe people could have doubled their money or better (you I assume?) but conversely could have done far worse than NOG!

[Bilo]

We have reached an interesting point as Bermuda's Drama plays out. (with ~74days to go)
For those investors who (like the NZO story and don’t want to miss out on extraordinary oil price escalation, Tui, Kupe, Taranaki oil/gas exploration prospects, and Pike) and want to buy NZO shares. Their best option is still to buy heads.
Unfortunately, for holders of gifted options (read long term NZO supporters), the head price is at or near that point where for them it pays to convert options rather than buy heads rather than to throw the options away and gift dilution profits to head holders, particularly those who have already sold their options.
Hence, IMO, why the share price is stuttering in the face of otherwise bullish junior oilers facing merger activity, record prices, and fantastic opportunity.

[duncan macgregor]

[QUOTE=duncan macgregor;193906]Competition to select NZO share price on conversion date June 30th
in the event of a tie the winner is the person with the correct score posting first
I will list you in posting order.
1,AMR 180c, 2, OILER 165c, 3,Macdunk 159c. 4,MATTYROO 158c.
5,SEAMUS 135c, 6,SERPIE 131c, 7, LIZ 120c, 8, STRAT157c.
9TRACKERS 168, 10, COLIN 170, 11,THE MACHINE 210c. 12,MALCOLM 200c.
13,SPOOK 172, 14,BIG BOB184c, 15,ZORBA 155c, 16, REMY 167c,
17 AMERICAN PSYCHO 175c 18 SHASTA 161c, 19RONTHEPOM 171c 20 PHAEDRUS 160.
21SHREWDY 169, 22 BERMUDA 149, 23 MORV 183c, 24 ZAC 177c
25 DIGGER 173c, 26 blank, 27 NITA 181c, 28 SUMMER NED 193c.
29 QOH 179c, 30 WK6332 225c 31 BALANCE $10-60 32 KS 162,
33 TOK3N 145c, 34 SHANE M 162.5c, 35CORRAN 156c, 36 MICK100 300c.
37 DSURF 154c, 38 SKEET 185c,39 MIBO 177c, 40 JAY 162c,
41 ZACMAN 187c, 42 GAMBLER33 115c, 43 ANUBUS144c, 44 BRUCETO9 164c.
45 romer 163c.46 HOOP 147c 47 RABBI 148c 48 ROTWEILLER 153c,
49 MINGEATHINAIOOS 150c,50 MANXMAN 195c, 51 MACDUFFY 146c, 52 BLOCKHEAD 198c,
53 777 226c,54 SWISSBOY 174c,55 AIRDALE166,56 CLIPS 178c,
57 PADDIE 196c,58 FOODEE 176, 59 BK152c,60 MPC182c,
61 STEVE 151,62 ONTHEMONEY 143, 63 LION 186, 64,TIM23 189c,

[blockhead]

Thats right Tim, hop in and make your choice, win 1st prize and you will be passed a parcel of NOG options due for conversion this June

[skeet]

QUOTE=duncan macgregor;194173]
We still have 130,132,133,134, 136, 137,138,139,140, 141,177,185,188,189, TIM 23 YOU ARE NOT EVEN ENTERED MATE GET IN AND STOP BLEATING.

Ive already got 185.

[Nitaa]

Duncan.. are you using excel 2011 for your workings?

Now i really want to see how your system can beat the rest of the market 100% of the time. Are you going to be running a seminar over the course of next week. I am flying back to NZ later tonight for 1 week only so book me seat pls.

[mibo]

We still have 130,132,133,134, 136, 137,138,139,140, 141,177,188,189, TIM 23 YOU ARE NOT EVEN ENTERED MATE GET IN AND STOP BLEATING.

And I have 177 already

[coalie]

Hi, first time I've posted. Been 'listening' to you all from the sidelines for the last 12 months. Please put me down for 177 - Cheers

[coalie]

OK - hows 188

[duncan macgregor]

And I have 177 already Sorry MIBO i corrected it ZAK will have to find another number. COALIE you are down at number 24 on 188c good luck. Macdunk

[duncan macgregor]

Duncan.. are you using excel 2011 for your workings?

Now i really want to see how your system can beat the rest of the market 100% of the time. Are you going to be running a seminar over the course of next week. I am flying back to NZ later tonight for 1 week only so book me seat pls. Good on you NITA I hope the broomstick holds out. Macdunk

[Wilkins_Micawber]

Good on you NITA I hope the broomstick holds out. Macdunk

Better watch out McD - I hear Nita is looking for a place to "park" it, and your name was rumoured ... :)

[Nitaa]

Better watch out McD - I hear Nita is looking for a place to "park" it, and your name was rumoured ... :)
You heard correct. Ready to use it and spank good ol md across the area where the sun dont shine.

md. i just love your humour

[Nitaa]

Duncan.. are you using excel 2011 for your workings?

Now i really want to see how your system can beat the rest of the market 100% of the time. Are you going to be running a seminar over the course of next week. I am flying back to NZ later tonight for 1 week only so book me seat pls.Here are some following book titles to sell at your seminar.

Investing for the brain dead.
NZO has gone nowhere for 3 years.
Passing the Parcel
Timeline theory 1..2..3..4..5..6..7.. 8(timeline theory 9 due out in the next 2 months)
What is moving average. (for your book this is exactly the same as averaging down)
Throwing the dart at the chart (your number 1 best seller)

These will sell like hot potatoes. Looking forward in seeing you big guy

[AMR]

Nita, are you in actual fact a man pretending to be a woman on these forums?

[Nitaa]

Nita, are you in actual fact a man pretending to be a woman on these forums?AMR. interesting question. Even if i am a man who believes he should be in a womans body should that make any difference?

Meanwhile oil prices just keep going up.

[tim23]

I have submitited a price about $1.65 from memory last wek but is seems to have gone (maybe my eyesight has?!) Duncan - can you kindly reinstate my price at that level.

[Nitaa]

but answer the question man, woman, transvistite. ps makes no diifference to me your post,s allways welcolme:rolleyes::rolleyes::rolleyes:
OK OK OK already. I am 100% man. Full set of frank and beans.. the whole enchulata.

My wifes name is Nita is i use her log in id.

Sorry md. my wife is mine and she wont be sitting on your lap at crissy time.

[777]

Good to see that the imputation credit on the dividend was 33c.

[digger]

AMR. interesting question. Even if i am a man who believes he should be in a womans body should that make any difference?

Meanwhile oil prices just keep going up.

I also have a disconnect to what is and how i think it should be.Forget the woman and man thing,more important to be taken cerisouly. Am saying this because i am probable the only Peak Oiler in and around Morrinsville who over too many years have said what i think will happen with oil in the future which is now and time forward. Starting to get positive feedback since oil passed 100 but especially today from someone who did not formually hold my views in high regard.Crossed the road to talk .Interesting how when someone finally see something you can almost see them listening.
Sadly that can have draw a wrong conclusion in some people.When NZO was 26 cents i tried to get interest,but am now told OK they should have acted but will do so if NZO returns to 26 cents. Well i said i will not be there as to fall that much would clearly show something very wrong and to not touch it with the proverable barge pole.
Approx about 3-00 dollars one year after Kupe full production. Minium.

[duncan macgregor]

I have submitited a price about $1.65 from memory last wek but is seems to have gone (maybe my eyesight has?!) Duncan - can you kindly reinstate my price at that level. No point TIM you cant win $1-65 was taken before you entered. One simple rule whoever selects the number first claims it. First in best dressed only one winner at the end sorry. Macdunk

[duncan macgregor]

OK OK OK already. I am 100% man. Full set of frank and beans.. the whole enchulata.

My wifes name is Nita is i use her log in id.

Sorry md. my wife is mine and she wont be sitting on your lap at crissy time. MACDUNK was 100% right again. I told them all at the national convention that NITA is an old woman. LIZ said NITA is a bloke which is completely wrong. STRAT reckoned on an old cross dresser, and AMR said NITA was a mr inbetween. Macdunk

[trackers]

Tapis up to NZ$150 a barrel (just under $118US)... That's $6million a day for the TUI partners.

Quite a good mention on 3 News of NZO by ASB Securities

[manxman]

MACDUNK was 100% right again. I told them all at the national convention that NITA is an old woman. LIZ said NITA is a bloke which is completely wrong. STRAT reckoned on an old cross dresser, and AMR said NITA was a mr inbetween. Macdunk

This whole discussion has become distasteful. The only question that could be legitimately asked of Nita is "Where do you put your balls when you are driving?"

If the answer is "On the Ladies tee" then that is enough surely.

Mx

[tim23]

Thanks Duncan but I checked last week and you allocated me $1.65 I even saw it on your list, it seems to have gone now?

[tim23]

Duncan - PS I just checked I posted $1.65 7/4/08 and on one post 9/4/08 you have both Oiler & yself @ $1.65, assuming Oiler was first can you please give me the next highest number available from $1.65? Thanks

[duncan macgregor]

OK OK OK already. I am 100% man. Full set of frank and beans.. the whole enchulata.

My wifes name is Nita is i use her log in id.

Sorry md. my wife is mine and she wont be sitting on your lap at crissy time.


Duncan - PS I just checked I posted $1.65 7/4/08 and on one post 9/4/08 you have both Oiler & yself @ $1.65, assuming Oiler was first can you please give me the next highest number available from $1.65? Thanks My fault TIM sorry should have checked it out better you are 189c. Macdunk
PS yous is a bloke i hope.

[fish]

Tapis up to NZ$150 a barrel (just under $118US)... That's $6million a day for the TUI partners.

Quite a good mention on 3 News of NZO by ASB Securities

Tapis is now 121.76 = nz $155-at this rate nzo share of gross tui income will soon be $1,000,000 a day

I doubt if any share in nz history has ever had such a high p/e ratio-and the potential too go a lot higher .

[bermuda]

Nita,
well at least I kept your secret.

NZO goes a lot higher.

[AMR]

My apologies if anyone was offended by my questioning, it just seemed so out of character for a lady to be speaking about Pike going through puberty:).

Anyhow, got the divi from NZO yesterday from ASB Bank. Now it's a toss-up between OEL, NWE, PSA, or more NZO on what to buy with it.

[the machine]

My apologies if anyone was offended by my questioning, it just seemed so out of character for a lady to be speaking about Pike going through puberty:).

Anyhow, got the divi from NZO yesterday from ASB Bank. Now it's a toss-up between OEL, NWE, PSA, or more NZO on what to buy with it.

have a look at ppp or awe

[trackers]

Tapis is now 121.76 = nz $155-at this rate nzo share of gross tui income will soon be $1,000,000 a day

I doubt if any share in nz history has ever had such a high p/e ratio-and the potential too go a lot higher .

Oh bloody hell, it is too!!

$155 p/barrel x 43,478 barrels a day = $6,739,090 a day..

[digger]

Oh bloody hell, it is too!!

$155 p/barrel x 43,478 barrels a day = $6,739,090 a day..

Trackers you did not quite finish your calculations.
6,739,090 x.125[NZO share]= 842,386
With a potential of now NZ$842,386 per day this is now the highest gross revenue ever seen from NZO. Once KUPE gets in full swing in 18 months the gross revenue will be 3 times that but for now this income stream is looking better by the hour.Compared to other NZX companies on a future income basis NZO SP should be currently about 2-00 to 2-50.

[manxman]

Trackers you did not quite finish your calculations.
6,739,090 x.125[NZO share]= 842,386
With a potential of now NZ$842,386 per day this is now the highest gross revenue ever seen from NZO. Once KUPE gets in full swing in 18 months the gross revenue will be 3 times that but for now this income stream is looking better by the hour.Compared to other NZX companies on a future income basis NZO SP should be currently about 2-00 to 2-50.

And still the financial community takes little notice.

Back in the days of Mr Asia, you could solve the publicity problem by releasing photographs of a nubile assistant rolling naked in a room full of $100 notes. Nowadays you would pop it on YouTube I suppose.

Calling for nominations. (Nita is obviously a non-starter)

Mx

[blockhead]

And still the financial community takes little notice.

Back in the days of Mr Asia, you could solve the publicity problem by releasing photographs of a nubile assistant rolling naked in a room full of $100 notes. Nowadays you would pop it on YouTube I suppose.

Calling for nominations. (Nita is obviously a non-starter)

Mx

I was more picturing the aforementioned nubile slithering around in sweet (oh so sweet) tapis crude

[blockhead]

Who understands the 4.45pm - 5.00pm "pre close" period at the end of each day, I noticed yesterday a buyer for NOG @ $1.48 during the pre close period but highest sale went through at $1.46. Does a buyer @ $1.48 who puts his order in get priority over a $1.46 buyer who has been sitting there all day.

[zorba]

.
OMG, price of oil sets new intraday record above $115 / barrel !!!

http://futures.tradingcharts.com/intraday/CL_/58

[dsurf]

Who understands the 4.45pm - 5.00pm "pre close" period at the end of each day, I noticed yesterday a buyer for NOG @ $1.48 during the pre close period but highest sale went through at $1.46. Does a buyer @ $1.48 who puts his order in get priority over a $1.46 buyer who has been sitting there all day.

Yes they do - it is the same matching as per the open

[trackers]

Who understands the 4.45pm - 5.00pm "pre close" period at the end of each day, I noticed yesterday a buyer for NOG @ $1.48 during the pre close period but highest sale went through at $1.46. Does a buyer @ $1.48 who puts his order in get priority over a $1.46 buyer who has been sitting there all day.


Kinda... They put in a new closing algorithm, have a read here:

http://www.nzx.com/aboutus/what_we_do/technology/view

So basically all market orders are ignored, and auction takes place between 4:45-5 to determine closing price... Plenty room for manipulation! (You can still set a limit order during this period)

[digger]

Who understands the 4.45pm - 5.00pm "pre close" period at the end of each day, I noticed yesterday a buyer for NOG @ $1.48 during the pre close period but highest sale went through at $1.46. Does a buyer @ $1.48 who puts his order in get priority over a $1.46 buyer who has been sitting there all day.

Yes,the higher buyer take priority over a lower buyer even if the lower buyer has been sitting there for a month.But the first buyer in claimes any trades at that figure.

[blockhead]

Thanks for that

[trackers]

Trackers you did not quite finish your calculations.
6,739,090 x.125[NZO share]= 842,386
With a potential of now NZ$842,386 per day this is now the highest gross revenue ever seen from NZO. Once KUPE gets in full swing in 18 months the gross revenue will be 3 times that but for now this income stream is looking better by the hour.Compared to other NZX companies on a future income basis NZO SP should be currently about 2-00 to 2-50.

Yep, they're well and truly creaming it. A good mention on the news last night, then in the asb securities roundup who pretty much said the same thing.

I love how as the revenue increases, the cost structure essentially stays the same. A TUI upgrade is on the way, PRC is revving up, Momoho drill looks promising, and Kupe is ticking along... Might top up on a few more oppies today

[zorba]

.
Global Markets up 1.5 to 2.5% over last 24 hours ....... check out "Market Data" section on Bloomberg website

Who What credit crunch ...... Chinese nver heard of it:

China's GDP Grows 10.6%; Bank Reserve Ratio Rises (Update4)


http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601080&sid=aTMnp9Vfd2xM&refer=asia

.

Will oil price hit $120 / barrel by 30 June or will it be $125 ????
.

[digger]

Did a few very simple quick figures to see if NZO can get to one million gross revenue per day from TUI. The answer is that it is quite achievable. Firstly TUI has to hold at 40,000 a day,then Tapis has to go to 134 and NZ dollar at about .78 us. All that is on the cards with a 50% probably of happening,and if it does it is one million a day gross from TUI.

It works out like this.
12.5%[40000]=5000 barrls to NZO
So at 200 NZ dollars we get 1 million.
To get 200 nz Tapis has to be 156


So if tapis gets to 156 before TUI falls below 40,000 we get our one million. The NZ US exchange rate is not higher than 78 cents.

[digger]

Kinda... They put in a new closing algorithm, have a read here:

http://www.nzx.com/aboutus/what_we_do/technology/view

So basically all market orders are ignored, and auction takes place between 4:45-5 to determine closing price... Plenty room for manipulation! (You can still set a limit order during this period)

Thanks Tracker i did not know that. So my last post on this topic is only true until 15 mins to closing then this new rule you pointed out kicks in. Room for manipulation allright. That must have been put there to keep traders happy.

[COLIN]

Yep, they're well and truly creaming it. A good mention on the news last night, then in the asb securities roundup who pretty much said the same thing.

I love how as the revenue increases, the cost structure essentially stays the same. A TUI upgrade is on the way, PRC is revving up, Momoho drill looks promising, and Kupe is ticking along... Might top up on a few more oppies today

Well, there can be little doubt now, surely, that the options will be exercised. Watch the mad scramble for them today.

[blockhead]

Well, there can be little doubt now, surely, that the options will be exercised. Watch the mad scramble for them today.

Well you were right about that Colin, I had an order in for 90,000 @ 06c but it just went straight over the top to 07.3 at the moment. Pleased I have a pile in the bag anyway but they mostly owe me 07c

[dsurf]

samll 5,000 crossing at $1.50

[Sehnsucht888]

150K done at 1.50. Looking good today.

[Rabbi]

Yes, with oil at US$1-15 barrel, the likelihood of another Tui upground, Kupe development wells nearly finished, Momoho to be drilled, and Pike not far from the coal seam it's all one way traffic.

Partly buying the rumour, in the last two intances, and buying the fact in the first three.

[arjay]

NZO currently grossing $10 per second. Not bad....

[Wilkins_Micawber]

NZO currently grossing $10 per second. Not bad....

and that would work out to about $1.20 per annum PER SHARE :) - pity it won't last for the whole year (unless petrol increases by enough to balance the drop in daily extraction...)

[fruitloop]

$1.52 being eatten away.

do you think it will stay above $1.50????? (PRC is going great guns)

[zacman]

Hands up those that are feeling good today

zacman

[troyvdh]

Yeah after waiting 20 plus years...............

[BigBob]

Hands up those that are feeling good today

I am feeling very good.... with today's move I am now also sitting on a 2 bagger based on my average buy price... lowest I ever bought heads was 44c in early 2004 and highest was 105c in August last year....

[COLIN]

Duncan has asked me to pass on his congratulations to all the patient souls who are now reaping their richly deserved rewards for remembering the ancient dictum: SUCCESSFUL SHARE INVESTING IS ALL ABOUT TRANSFERRING WEALTH FROM THE IMPATIENT TO THE PATIENT.

(Duncan is feeling too sick to come to the phone himself.)

[Mick100]

(Duncan is feeling too sick to come to the phone himself.)

I hope he hasn't ODed :D

[Dr_Who]

You cant get high unless you've got some NZOs. :D

[skeet]

You cant get high unless you've got some NZOs. :D

Even better some NZOOD's! :D

[manxman]

Life must be pretty good on the banks of the Riuohauraki.

Mx

[duncan macgregor]

I hope he hasn't ODed :D
Mick Macdunk has definately not ODED? whatever that is. JEEZE i hope for your sakes $1-59 dousnt win you will never hear the end of it. Did i tell you lot that there is only one person in a share competition on Share trader that is in positive territory at the moment.
Macdunk

[duncan macgregor]

[QUOTE=duncan macgregor;195019][QUOTE=duncan macgregor;193906]Competition to select NZO share price on conversion date June 30th
in the event of a tie the winner is the person with the correct score posting first
I will list you in posting order.
1,AMR 180c, 2, OILER 165c, 3,Macdunk 159c. 4,MATTYROO 158c.
5,SEAMUS 135c, 6,SERPIE 131c, 7, LIZ 120c, 8, STRAT157c.
9TRACKERS 168, 10, COLIN 170, 11,THE MACHINE 210c. 12,MALCOLM 200c.
13,SPOOK 172, 14,BIG BOB184c, 15,ZORBA 155c, 16, REMY 167c,
17 AMERICAN PSYCHO 175c 18 SHASTA 161c, 19RONTHEPOM 171c 20 PHAEDRUS 160.
21SHREWDY 169, 22 BERMUDA 149, 23 MORV 183c, 24 ZAC 177c
25 DIGGER 173c, 26 blank, 27 NITA 181c, 28 SUMMER NED 193c.
29 QOH 179c, 30 WK6332 225c 31 BALANCE $10-60 32 KS 162,
33 TOK3N 145c, 34 SHANE M 162.5c, 35CORRAN 156c, 36 MICK100 300c.
37 DSURF 154c, 38 SKEET 185c,39 MIBO 177c, 40 JAY 162c,
41 ZACMAN 187c, 42 GAMBLER33 115c, 43 ANUBUS144c, 44 BRUCETO9 164c.
45 romer 163c.46 HOOP 147c 47 RABBI 148c 48 ROTWEILLER 153c,
49 MINGEATHINAIOOS 150c,50 MANXMAN 195c, 51 MACDUFFY 146c, 52 BLOCKHEAD 198c,
53 777 226c,54 SWISSBOY 174c,55 AIRDALE166,56 CLIPS 178c,
57 PADDIE 196c,58 FOODEE 176, 59 BK152c,60 MPC182c,
61 STEVE 151,62 ONTHEMONEY 143, 63 LION 186, 64,TIM23 189c,
65 BOB C 188,

[Mick100]

Mick Macdunk has definately not ODED? whatever that is.

OD - overdose (the way many hard drug addicts end their lives)

In your case macdunk, I thought you may have ODed on ODs (as in NZOODs) this morning.
.

[zac]

Price hits $1.51. The oppies are in the money and 2.5 months to go! Eat your heart out McDunk.

Could someone explain the ann today re the drilling at Kupe. Was the fishing for the lost drill string unsuccessful? A sidetrack well was ' abandoned successfully'. And mention of a 'redrill'.

[Lion]

Zac, that's the way I see it - they couldn't retrieve the stuck drill (the fishing) so have backed up a bit and are trying a slightly new path (that's the redrill). I think it's all going okay, except for the lost time, of course. I wonder incidentally, if the daily drilling costs are greater than the daily income from Tui? No they'd be less, I think.

And Zacman, yes, I'll put my hand up for feeling good today!

Tapis at $122!

[digger]

Life must be pretty good on the banks of the Riuohauraki.

Mx

I got the cheque sent to me as i wanted it photographed.None of this cold and indifferent direct credit stuff---that is for the impersonal stuff. Each month i get a builders bill and for April there will be bugger all left. Still i am very happy today. All shares are up except SLG which held ground.
My 1.73 for 30 june might be a bit low.The only negative around at the moment is that DM pass the parcle did not get passed to me.Todays results are both unbelievable and looooong overdue.The SP is undervalued less than 2 dollars.
Can anyone list a NZX share here that has a greater or equal future income that is under two dollars??

[blockhead]

[QUOTE=digger;
Can anyone list a NZX share here that has a greater or equal future income that is under two dollars??[/QUOTE]

I can think of one Digger, PRC what sayeth you ?

[digger]

I can think of one Digger, PRC what sayeth you ?

Maybe but somehow that is still 1/3 part of NZO so that sort of means 2/3 of PRC has to beat NZO plus 1/3 of itself.

[tim23]

I noticed today in the Salvus quarterly that they have taken a reasonable stake in NOG in this quarter and they seem pretty happy with that stake thus far!

[Mingeathinaikos]

Oh wise ones.....
I'm in the UK, I haven't seen any dividend action yet either in NZ bank acc or cheque....... how would I go about finding where my action has got too???? .

[tim23]

If Computershare have your bank a/c its there if not the cheque is in the mail and I have just collected mine tonight.

[airedale]

Oh wise ones.....
I'm in the UK, I haven't seen any dividend action yet either in NZ bank acc or cheque....... how would I go about finding where my action has got too???? .
Minge, if you are with the NB custodial, that was paid today.

[Mingeathinaikos]

Minge, if you are with the NB custodial, that was paid today.

Thanks guys. It appears I may be freting a little early - was under the false impression that everyone else was out splashing their NZO windfall.....

[geezy]

hi DM ,

I m goin for 1.67, can i join the competition too? :)


Cheers.


Happy Holding NZO-ers, congrats on the patience. Only regret i have now is not owning more of them!

[the machine]

Zac, that's the way I see it - they couldn't retrieve the stuck drill (the fishing) so have backed up a bit and are trying a slightly new path (that's the redrill). I think it's all going okay, except for the lost time, of course. I wonder incidentally, if the daily drilling costs are greater than the daily income from Tui? No they'd be less, I think.

And Zacman, yes, I'll put my hand up for feeling good today!

Tapis at $122!

the sidetrack has finished drilling - now testing to make sure is ok, before suspending as a future producer.

all being well the rig will be ready to shift next week to momomho- sort of reminds me of more moolah!

M

[the machine]

Kupe sidetrack completed: NZOG
(Thursday, 17 April 2008)

THE sidetrack of the third and last development well at the Kupe gas-condensate field, offshore Taranaki, New Zealand, has been completed successfully, according to minority partner New Zealand Oil & Gas.
Full Story...


headlines from energyreview

M

[wk6332]

[QUOTE=duncan macgregor;195019]I brought it forward for easier viewing. Macdunk


[QUOTE=duncan macgregor;193906]Competition to select NZO share price on conversion date June 30th
in the event of a tie the winner is the person with the correct score posting first
I will list you in posting order.
1,AMR 180c, 2, OILER 165c, 3,Macdunk 159c. 4,MATTYROO 158c.
5,SEAMUS 135c, 6,SERPIE 131c, 7, LIZ 120c, 8, STRAT157c.
9TRACKERS 168, 10, COLIN 170, 11,THE MACHINE 210c. 12,MALCOLM 200c.
13,SPOOK 172, 14,BIG BOB184c, 15,ZORBA 155c, 16, REMY 167c,
17 AMERICAN PSYCHO 175c 18 SHASTA 161c, 19RONTHEPOM 171c 20 PHAEDRUS 160.
21SHREWDY 169, 22 BERMUDA 149, 23 MORV 183c, 24 ZAC 177c
25 DIGGER 173c, 26 blank, 27 NITA 181c, 28 SUMMER NED 193c.
29 QOH 179c, 30 WK6332 225c 31 BALANCE $10-60 32 KS 162,
33 TOK3N 145c, 34 SHANE M 162.5c, 35CORRAN 156c, 36 MICK100 300c.
37 DSURF 154c, 38 SKEET 185c,39 MIBO 177c, 40 JAY 162c,
41 ZACMAN 187c, 42 GAMBLER33 115c, 43 ANUBUS144c, 44 BRUCETO9 164c.
45 romer 163c.46 HOOP 147c 47 RABBI 148c 48 ROTWEILLER 153c,
49 MINGEATHINAIOOS 150c,50 MANXMAN 195c, 51 MACDUFFY 146c, 52 BLOCKHEAD 198c,
53 777 226c,54 SWISSBOY 174c,55 AIRDALE166,56 CLIPS 178c,
57 PADDIE 196c,58 FOODEE 176, 59 BK152c,60 MPC182c,
61 STEVE 151,62 ONTHEMONEY 143, 63 LION 186, 64,TIM23 189c,

Duncan, I might have missed it, but is there a closing date to enter, if not can we have one.

Thank you
William

[Mingeathinaikos]

NYMEX FUTURES TRADING HAS AVERAGE CONTRACTS OVER us$104 UNTIL 2016. PS JUST HEARD/WATCHED 3.30AM CNBC GREAT OIL INVESTOR boon pickens, who in jan when oil hit us$100 per barell said it,s only tempary and oil will be under us$85per/b by april, has just been interviewed and has changed his views now pick,s US$125 PER BARREL BY JUNE/JULY08.:rolleyes::rolleyes::rolleyes:

Anyone else thinking malcolm could be our good old friend NOCA$H, back after a few years????

[duncan macgregor]

[QUOTE=duncan macgregor;195271]

[QUOTE=duncan macgregor;195019]

Duncan, I might have missed it, but is there a closing date to enter, if not can we have one.

Thank you
William WELL spotted i wondered when someone would notice. closing date is just on the close at the 30th of june. The ones with teally high or really low selectied at this moment are the brain dead. Macdunk

[Balance]

Why? Because Momoho will be a gusher.

The successes of Tui & Maari show that there's good oil in the Taranaki and it's waiting to be found. Companies had been looking for gas as NZ was thought to be gas prone so they have been looking at the wrong places.

Happy?

[777]

[QUOTE=wk6332;195363][QUOTE=duncan macgregor;195271]

WELL spotted i wondered when someone would notice. closing date is just on the close at the 30th of june. The ones with teally high or really low selectied at this moment are the brain dead. Macdunk


The winner then will be the person who enters on that day. So all the so called "brain dead" are those of us who have already entered.

I suggest a closing date for entry be within the next week.

[dsurf]

[QUOTE=duncan macgregor;195375][QUOTE=wk6332;195363]


The winner then will be the person who enters on that day. So all the so called "brain dead" are those of us who have already entered.

I suggest a closing date for entry be within the next week.

It may be open until June 30 but you will not be able to get a number between 1.35 & 1.75 so good luck - try 2.76 maybe?

[QOH]

[QUOTE=duncan macgregor;195375][QUOTE=wk6332;195363]


The winner then will be the person who enters on that day. So all the so called "brain dead" are those of us who have already entered.

I suggest a closing date for entry be within the next week.

I agree the competition should close within the next week.

[duncan macgregor]

[QUOTE=duncan macgregor;195375][QUOTE=wk6332;195363]


The winner then will be the person who enters on that day. So all the so called "brain dead" are those of us who have already entered.

I suggest a closing date for entry be within the next week. One simple rule first in gets the number. First in best dressed. However if you thought the sp would end up higher or lower than expected then delay your entry. Read the rules then use them to your advantage thats what business is all about. I selected $1-59 because that is what my TA predicted PHAEDRUS selected $1-60 which verified my choice MICK100 selected $3-00 without thinking. If you cant follow and understand one simple little rule then dont suggest we change it to suit the people at the bottom of the class. Macdunk

[clips]

quess it will close when all the numbers are gone......

[dsurf]

quess it will close when all the numbers are gone......

No - next competion starts - what will the reserves be after the Tui upgrade!

[peterfindlay]

NYMEX FUTURES TRADING HAS AVERAGE CONTRACTS OVER us$104 UNTIL 2016. PS JUST HEARD/WATCHED 3.30AM CNBC GREAT OIL INVESTOR boon pickens, who in jan when oil hit us$100 per barell said it,s only tempary and oil will be under us$85per/b by april, has just been interviewed and has changed his views now pick,s US$125 PER BARREL BY JUNE/JULY08.:rolleyes::rolleyes::rolleyes:

Malcolm et al

Here is the link to this article:

http://www.cnbc.com/id/24181832

[COLIN]

Malcolm et al

Here is the link to this article:

http://www.cnbc.com/id/24181832

So what is "Great" about this guy - I don't think much of his picken. Such a significant shift in just a couple of months. He's as useful as consulting a psychic.

[Bob C]

Hi MacDunk

I'll take $1.71 please. Was going for $1.72 but have been beaten to it!

Cheers
Bob

[duncan macgregor]

Hi MacDunk

I'll take $1.71 please. Was going for $1.72 but have been beaten to it!

Cheers
Bob To late for that number RONTHEPOM is onto it at number 19. Macdunk

[Bob C]

You have a couple of double-ups MD; at $1.62, $1.77, plus you've let Shane M in at $162.5?

The range of sequential estimates is $1.43 to $1.87 with nothing in between! As optimistic as I am about NZO's future a 25% increase from $1.50 to $1.88 is a stretch! But I'll take it as its all that's left.

So; I take $188.

I've thrown the numbers into a spreadsheet (the only way I could figure out what was left!). Send me an email if you'd like me to forward it to you MD.

Cheers
Bob

Target
price Sharetrader Order
$115.000 GAMBLER33 42
$120.000 LIZ 7
$131.000 SERPIE 6
$135.000 SEAMUS 5
$143.000 ONTHEMONEY 62
$144.000 ANUBUS 43
$145.000 TOK3N 33
$146.000 MACDUFFY 51
$147.000 HOOP 46
$148.000 RABBI 47
$149.000 BERMUDA 22
$150.000 MINGEATHINAIOOS 49
$151.000 STEVE 61
$152.000 BK 59
$153.000 ROTWEILLER 48
$154.000 DSURF 37
$155.000 ZORBA 15
$156.000 CORRAN 35
$157.000 STRAT 8
$158.000 MATTYROO 4
$159.000 Macdunk 3
$160.000 PHAEDRUS 20
$161.000 SHASTA 18
$162.000 KS 32
$162.000 JAY 40
$162.500 SHANE M 34
$163.000 ROMER 45
$164.000 BRUCETO9 44
$165.000 OILER 2
$166.000 AIRDALE 55
$167.000 REMY 16
$168.000 TRACKERS 9
$169.000 SHREWDY 21
$170.000 COLIN 10
$171.000 RONTHEPOM 19
$172.000 SPOOK 13
$173.000 DIGGER 25
$174.000 SWISSBOY 54
$175.000 AMERICAN PSYCHO 17
$176.000 FOODEE 58
$177.000 ZAC 24
$177.000 MIBO 39
$178.000 CLIPS 56
$179.000 QOH 29
$180.000 AMR 1
$181.000 NITA 27
$182.000 MPC 60
$183.000 MORV 23
$184.000 BIG BOB 14
$185.000 SKEET 38
$186.000 LION 63
$187.000 ZACMAN 41
$189.000 TIM23 64
$193.000 SUMMER NED 28
$195.000 MANXMAN 50
$196.000 PADDIE 57
$198.000 BLOCKHEAD 52
$200.000 MALCOLM 12
$210.000 THE MACHINE 11
$225.000 WK6332 30
$226.000 777 53
$300.000 MICK100 36
$1,060.000 BALANCE 31

[coalie]

Sorry MIBO i corrected it ZAK will have to find another number. COALIE you are down at number 24 on 188c good luck. Macdunk

Sorry Bob, 188 taken. DM could make use of your spredsheet.
Put me in at 188 DM - Cheers

[duncan macgregor]

You have a couple of double-ups MD; at $1.62, $1.77, plus you've let Shane M in at $162.5?

The range of sequential estimates is $1.43 to $1.87 with nothing in between! As optimistic as I am about NZO's future a 25% increase from $1.50 to $1.88 is a stretch! But I'll take it as its all that's left.

So; I take $188.

I've thrown the numbers into a spreadsheet (the only way I could figure out what was left!). Send me an email if you'd like me to forward it to you MD.

Cheers
Bob

Target
price Sharetrader Order
$115.000 GAMBLER33 42
$120.000 LIZ 7
$131.000 SERPIE 6
$135.000 SEAMUS 5
$143.000 ONTHEMONEY 62
$144.000 ANUBUS 43
$145.000 TOK3N 33
$146.000 MACDUFFY 51
$147.000 HOOP 46
$148.000 RABBI 47
$149.000 BERMUDA 22
$150.000 MINGEATHINAIOOS 49
$151.000 STEVE 61
$152.000 BK 59
$153.000 ROTWEILLER 48
$154.000 DSURF 37
$155.000 ZORBA 15
$156.000 CORRAN 35
$157.000 STRAT 8
$158.000 MATTYROO 4
$159.000 Macdunk 3
$160.000 PHAEDRUS 20
$161.000 SHASTA 18
$162.000 KS 32
$162.000 JAY 40
$162.500 SHANE M 34
$163.000 ROMER 45
$164.000 BRUCETO9 44
$165.000 OILER 2
$166.000 AIRDALE 55
$167.000 REMY 16
$168.000 TRACKERS 9
$169.000 SHREWDY 21
$170.000 COLIN 10
$171.000 RONTHEPOM 19
$172.000 SPOOK 13
$173.000 DIGGER 25
$174.000 SWISSBOY 54
$175.000 AMERICAN PSYCHO 17
$176.000 FOODEE 58
$177.000 ZAC 24
$177.000 MIBO 39
$178.000 CLIPS 56
$179.000 QOH 29
$180.000 AMR 1
$181.000 NITA 27
$182.000 MPC 60
$183.000 MORV 23
$184.000 BIG BOB 14
$185.000 SKEET 38
$186.000 LION 63
$187.000 ZACMAN 41
$189.000 TIM23 64
$193.000 SUMMER NED 28
$195.000 MANXMAN 50
$196.000 PADDIE 57
$198.000 BLOCKHEAD 52
$200.000 MALCOLM 12
$210.000 THE MACHINE 11
$225.000 WK6332 30
$226.000 777 53
$300.000 MICK100 36
$1,060.000 BALANCE 31 BOB i know that BALANCE is a bit optimistic about NZO at $10--60 and even MAD MICK AT $3-00 but that is ridicilous listing him at $1,060,000.
I really dont care about double ups i gave them the opportunity to change. If someone wants a point five of a cent who am i to say it wont happen. Its up to everyone to work out the way to win this with only one simple rule and one winner at the end. First in best dressed or if it skyrockets or crashes last in best dressed. Goodluck with your selection. Macdunk

[duncan macgregor]

[QUOTE=duncan macgregor;195271][QUOTE=duncan macgregor;195019][QUOTE=duncan macgregor;193906]Competition to select NZO share price on conversion date June 30th
in the event of a tie the winner is the person with the correct score posting first
I will list you in posting order.
1,AMR 180c, 2, OILER 165c, 3,Macdunk 159c. 4,MATTYROO 158c.
5,SEAMUS 135c, 6,SERPIE 131c, 7, LIZ 120c, 8, STRAT157c.
9TRACKERS 168, 10, COLIN 170, 11,THE MACHINE 210c. 12,MALCOLM 200c.
13,SPOOK 172, 14,BIG BOB184c, 15,ZORBA 155c, 16, REMY 167c,
17 AMERICAN PSYCHO 175c 18 SHASTA 161c, 19RONTHEPOM 171c 20 PHAEDRUS 160.
21SHREWDY 169, 22 BERMUDA 149, 23 MORV 183c, 24 COALIE 188c
25 DIGGER 173c, 26 blank, 27 NITA 181c, 28 SUMMER NED 193c.
29 QOH 179c, 30 WK6332 225c 31 BALANCE $10-60 32 KS 162,
33 TOK3N 145c, 34 SHANE M 162.5c, 35CORRAN 156c, 36 MICK100 300c.
37 DSURF 154c, 38 SKEET 185c,39 MIBO 177c, 40 JAY 162c,
41 ZACMAN 187c, 42 GAMBLER33 115c, 43 ANUBUS144c, 44 BRUCETO9 164c.
45 romer 163c.46 HOOP 147c 47 RABBI 148c 48 ROTWEILLER 153c,
49 MINGEATHINAIOOS 150c,50 MANXMAN 195c, 51 MACDUFFY 146c, 52 BLOCKHEAD 198c,
53 777 226c,54 SWISSBOY 174c,55 AIRDALE166,56 CLIPS 178c,
57 PADDIE 196c,58 FOODEE 176, 59 BK152c,60 MPC182c,
61 STEVE 151,62 ONTHEMONEY 143, 63 LION 186, 64,TIM23 189c,
65 BOB C 190

[Crypto Crude]

Mackdunk...
You are running a Great competition with a Twist...
The 'brain dead' early entrants have made the most of this Because Those that wait for the last few days, or last price are cut out of the competition unless Major Bad, Or Major good occur...
virtually all picks between $1.43 and $1.98 are now gone...
... Major good relies on Momoho strike...
Major Bad relies on Market crashing...
.... $1.69 seems fair price at expiry to me....
Oil very bullish....
easily set to hit $150US! but when?
:cool:
.^sc

[pietrade]

Oi Oi Oi!!! On 8/4/08 I was listed as poster No.26 against the price of 171c !!!!! So can I have my place back please !!!???

[duncan macgregor]

Mackdunk...
You are running a Great competition with a Twist...
The 'brain dead' early entrants have made the most of this Because Those that wait for the last few days, or last price are cut out of the competition unless Major Bad, Or Major good occur...
virtually all picks between $1.43 and $1.98 are now gone...
... Major good relies on Momoho strike...
Major Bad relies on Market crashing...
.... $1.69 seems fair price at expiry to me....
Oil very bullish....
easily set to hit $150US! but when?
:cool:
.^sc SHREWDY One simple rule, One winner at the end . I dont care if they waste their pick selecting a number thats gone, or if they enter five minutes before the market closes, or even if they throw it away picking half a cent here or there. The winning number will be 159c or there abouts. Macdunk

[duncan macgregor]

Oi Oi Oi!!! On 8/4/08 I was listed as poster No.26 against the price of 171c !!!!! So can I have my place back please !!!??? You can have it back if you want but if you go back you will find that RONTHEPOM selected that number before you entered. Macdunk

[bermuda]

SHREWDY One simple rule, One winner at the end . I dont care if they waste their pick selecting a number thats gone, or if they enter five minutes before the market closes, or even if they throw it away picking half a cent here or there. The winning number will be 159c or there abouts. Macdunk

Duncan,



This is all about picking the right price.

And therefore posters should be able to pick what ever price they like even though this may mean several posters may pick the same price.
Cheers

[trackers]

God lets close this comp already, I think I put my bid in about a month ago! And I know that damn shrewdie will pip me at the post by one :)

[airedale]

This is all most entertaining:). It reminds me of an argument at a bingo hall.:D

[duncan macgregor]

Duncan,



This is all about picking the right price.

And therefore posters should be able to pick what ever price they like even though this may mean several posters may pick the same price.
Cheers BERMUDA no second prizes in any competition i run. First in or last in i dont care. Dither about until its to late to find the number you think well tough bickies.
This gives you an idea of who is really with it and who is not. Some of them even want me to do their homework to find an available number for them. Sit back and watch it unfold this is a great lesson on who you compete with in the market. Incidentely your pick is ten cents short of the winning score. Macdunk

[bermuda]

BERMUDA no second prizes in any competition i run. First in or last in i dont care. Dither about until its to late to find the number you think well tough bickies.
This gives you an idea of who is really with it and who is not. Some of them even want me to do their homework to find an available number for them. Sit back and watch it unfold this is a great lesson on who you compete with in the market. Incidentely your pick is ten cents short of the winning score. Macdunk

Macdunk,
Your statement "This gives you an idea of who is really with it and who is not" is only true if you can pick the price you want. That is why sharing would be fairer.
Cheers

[COLIN]

the differance between boon pickens and you (colin) is he,s worth billion,s us$$$ more than you. my guess is you have gone through life acting more like a PSYCHIC than him:D:D:D:D

Whats brought on this tantrum, for goodness sake! Please stick to rational arguments, if you can. All I was pointing out was that a so-called "Guru" had altered his prediction by almost 50% within the space of a few weeks - what say you had shorted oil back then, in the expectation of being able to buy back at $85, on the strength of that prediction? Wouldn't you be perhaps slightly miffed?

[Crypto Crude]

Mingeathinaikos-Anyone else thinking malcolm could be our good old friend NOCA$H, back after a few years????

I dont think they are the same...
Ive seen Mr No Ca$h driving an Evo 5 or 6....
he has real nice car...so much for having no cash...
:cool:
.^sc

[Mick100]

Whats brought on this tantrum, for goodness sake! Please stick to rational arguments, if you can. All I was pointing out was that a so-called "Guru" had altered his prediction by almost 50% within the space of a few weeks - what say you had shorted oil back then, in the expectation of being able to buy back at $85, on the strength of that prediction? Wouldn't you be perhaps slightly miffed?

Some were thinking (including myself) that pickens was simply trying to move the market and make a dollar or two, ie , go short oil then announce to the world that the one and only boon pickens is shorting oil and hope that others in the futures market follow. ie, His call that oil was going lower would be self perpetuating had other traders followed his lead and shorted oil - didn't quite work out as planned for boon pickens.

Put it like this - you don't hear george soros telling the world which currencies he's shorting or buying - we find out after the fact
.

[macduffy]

duncan
This comp has been a great diversion to keep us occupied instead of wasting our time and money investing in a down market. I hope you've got your thinking cap on for the next one!

;)

[digger]

I dont think they are the same...
Ive seen Mr No Ca$h driving an Evo 5 or 6....
he has real nice car...so much for having no cash...
:cool:
.^sc

Shrewdy in economics the guy who must have the flash car is the guy with no cash. So good on Nocash for calling it like it is,even if he created the situation.

[duncan macgregor]

duncan
This comp has been a great diversion to keep us occupied instead of wasting our time and money investing in a down market. I hope you've got your thinking cap on for the next one!

;) No worries mate might even have two rules on the second one now that the punters know how to work out the first one. IT SURE BEATS YAPPING ABOUT PEAK BLOODY OIL. Macdunk

[digger]

No worries mate might even have two rules on the second one now that the punters know how to work out the first one. IT SURE BEATS YAPPING ABOUT PEAK BLOODY OIL. Macdunk


Careful there Macdunk,i have just read a few jusicy Peak Oil articles that should be posted here for your pursal and considered comments.

[Romer]

Scuse me McD. I know I'm in danger of being classified amongst the brain dead but amidst all the discussions about a cent here and a cent there, I seem to have forgotten what first prize is.

[digger]

Scuse me McD. I know I'm in danger of being classified amongst the brain dead but amidst all the discussions about a cent here and a cent there, I seem to have forgotten what first prize is.

First prize is a hunderd dollar bottle of wine which i am donating .

[Ripping]

Scuse me McD. I know I'm in danger of being classified amongst the brain dead but amidst all the discussions about a cent here and a cent there, I seem to have forgotten what first prize is.

I believe there is no prize. In fact a somewhat, (no, an entirely,) pointless 'competition'. The winner will be soooo clever to have picked the 'right' number (yeah right). Personally I don't give a flying....
Most here are very well up on their initial investment... plenty of winners here then !

[Ripping]

First prize is a hunderd dollar bottle of wine which i am donating .

I stand corrected.... tho I still don't give a flying...... !! :)

[bermuda]

Careful there Macdunk,i have just read a few jusicy Peak Oil articles that should be posted here for your pursal and considered comments.

Yeah Digger,
Macdunk has the past wisdom and did really well in cashing up but the trouble is he didnt see the 40% increase in NZO ..and more to come.

[zorba]

.

Here we go - another startling day at the oil exchange:


http://futures.tradingcharts.com/intraday/CL_/58


Should end the week above $116 ??

Put the cat amongst petrol addicted pigeons ??
.

[duncan macgregor]

[QUOTE=duncan macgregor;195485][QUOTE=duncan macgregor;195271][QUOTE=duncan macgregor;195019][QUOTE=duncan macgregor;193906]Competition to select NZO share price on conversion date June 30th
in the event of a tie the winner is the person with the correct score posting first
I will list you in posting order.
1,AMR 180c, 2, OILER 165c, 3,Macdunk 159c. 4,MATTYROO 158c.
5,SEAMUS 135c, 6,SERPIE 131c, 7, LIZ 120c, 8, STRAT157c.
9TRACKERS 168, 10, COLIN 170, 11,THE MACHINE 210c. 12,MALCOLM 200c.
13,SPOOK 172, 14,BIG BOB184c, 15,ZORBA 155c, 16, REMY 167c,
17 AMERICAN PSYCHO 175c 18 SHASTA 161c, 19RONTHEPOM 171c 20 PHAEDRUS 160.
21SHREWDY 169, 22 BERMUDA 149, 23 MORV 183c, 24 COALIE 188c
25 DIGGER 173c, 26 blank, 27 NITA 181c, 28 SUMMER NED 193c.
29 QOH 179c, 30 WK6332 225c 31 BALANCE $10-60 32 KS 162,
33 TOK3N 145c, 34 SHANE M 162.5c, 35CORRAN 156c, 36 MICK100 300c.
37 DSURF 154c, 38 SKEET 185c,39 MIBO 177c, 40 JAY 162c,
41 ZACMAN 187c, 42 GAMBLER33 115c, 43 ANUBUS144c, 44 BRUCETO9 164c.
45 romer 163c.46 HOOP 147c 47 RABBI 148c 48 ROTWEILLER 153c,
49 MINGEATHINAIOOS 150c,50 MANXMAN 195c, 51 MACDUFFY 146c, 52 BLOCKHEAD 198c,
53 777 226c,54 SWISSBOY 174c,55 AIRDALE166,56 CLIPS 178c,
57 PADDIE 196c,58 FOODEE 176, 59 BK152c,60 MPC182c,
61 STEVE 151,62 ONTHEMONEY 143, 63 LION 186, 64,TIM23 189c,
65 BOB C 190 66 RIF RAF 191c 67, OUTTOLUNCH 193,

[OutToLunch]

155 for me MacD -- thanks. :)

[duncan macgregor]

155 for me MacD -- thanks. :) That is taken. Macdunk

[COLIN]

Some strong corporate earnings also reported in the US, e.g. Caterpillar & Google - helped, of course, by their depreciating dollar. However, Europe also up strongly. Therefore seems inevitable that NZO will resume its upward trajectory on Monday, also PPP - and PRC.

[digger]

[QUOTE=duncan macgregor;195485][QUOTE=duncan macgregor;195271][QUOTE=duncan macgregor;195019] Now we have a very generous prize being donated for winning it makes it more interesting. I cant allow myself to run the competition and take a prize. WHEN I WIN i will donate it to whoever is nicest to me between now and then. Macdunk

Nicest to Duncan macgregor???? Now this does create a problem for me. My thoughts was that the winners name be public announced on accepting the 100 dollar wine prize.We might now be struggling to find any posters prepared to accept this reward.The only solution i can now see is that i buy three bottles and with DM holding down the winner i will force feed two bottled down and in the after happy state donate the third. Also i want to get to hell out of there before he sobers up and realised he has been nicest to DM.

[JBmurc]

If the comp still going 1.69 .........yhanks

[duncan macgregor]

If the comp still going 1.69 .........yhanks The competition is alive and well but you need another number. Shrewd CRUDE wont be impressed if you fight over his number. Macdunk

[Crypto Crude]

JBM
Im happy to share it if he allowed it...
Rules set by 'bug a lugs' mackdunk... sorry...

Malcolm,
yourve gone and bumped your head...
Im as apologetic as the time I suspected Winner69 to be Mary Holm....
Heard a rumor ... don't listen to everything you are told...
...
:)
.^sc

[Rif-Raf]

McDunk, I put an entry in at 156 on 11/4 but I see I'm not on your list and corran has that. If I've been gazumped and not allowed that I'll take the next number available which looks like 1.88
Wow, if I win with that I'll be very very happy and I'm sure everyone here will be too :)

[duncan macgregor]

McDunk, I put an entry in at 156 on 11/4 but I see I'm not on your list and corran has that. If I've been gazumped and not allowed that I'll take the next number available which looks like 1.88
Wow, if I win with that I'll be very very happy and I'm sure everyone here will be too :)BOth those numbers are gone. I removed the double ups who had no chance its first in that gets the number right up to the end. No second prizes winning is everything. Macdunk

[Rif-Raf]

Alright 190 if that's not taken or 191 or ......

If I win this, then I'd hate to think what my non oil shares will be worth.

[macduffy]

Don't know if you're right or wrong, malcolm, but it's worth noting that most of the profitable Aussie oilers trade on much higher P/E's than 12, eg Woodside 36, Santos 17, AWE 40 odd ( although that will obviously change given their 42.5% of Tui ).
In general, I don't see P/E's as being an appropriate way to "value" an oiler, given the lumpy nature of their revenues, the fact that a lot of investors in these shares are not in it for the income and the difficulty of putting a valuation on anticipation and "blue sky".

[digger]

if nzog make a 2nd half profit of say $65million (forcast was $44milion when oil was$ 90 us a barrel) ,since jan 1st ave us$112 barrel that,s aprox 145million for 07/08 year.. at a p/e of 12 ( before option,s converted) sp should be at least $6.00..... am i wrong some where, please help.:):):):):)


NZO gross revenue is currently $280 million with 262 million shares on issue making a sale ratio of more than one. I did some cals but just removed them as it all added up to more and a better figure than what Malcolm has. The next official results will soon be out so lets wait for them. No matter how i do consertive figures the current NZO value is well north of two dollars. My estimate for DM competiton is 1-73 but that is a figure on what the market will settle at not a figure of what i think the current value is.

[Unicorn]

if nzog make a 2nd half profit of say $65million (forcast was $44milion when oil was$ 90 us a barrel) ,since jan 1st ave us$112 barrel that,s aprox 145million for 07/08 year.. at a p/e of 12 ( before option,s converted) sp should be at least $6.00..... am i wrong some where, please help.:):):):):)

First half profit was $41.4M, so adding $65M for second half gives $105M (not $145M). This assumes that any appreciation in PRC shares is not taken to book - there is over $30M in potential profit there right now.

P/e of 12 is unrealistic as current earnings are not likely to continue. Tui is a finite resource, and production will decline unless further discoveries are made.

Having noted a few recent valuations I worked through my own figures again and came up with ...


Cash...... 21 cps
Tax ...... 4 cps
Licences.. 5 cps
Kupe...... 30 cps
Pike...... 41 cps
Tui....... 84 cps
---
185 cps

I have assumed Tui production in 12 months to 31 March 2009 will be down to 8M barrels, Tui reserves not upgraded, oil at $105, exchange rate .76 - so there is plenty of potential upside, but given market volatility there is also potential downside.

The Kupe figure is a totally unsubstantiated guess - I simply do not have enough information to work out anything reliable, so have taken what I believe to be a very conservative figure.

So in my view no point selling out at current prices, especially with Momoho and the rest of the $25M exploration program coming up in some very exciting areas. Another interesting year ahead, and hopefully a bit of luck with the drill bit this time.

[tim23]

Duncan - I'm confused (again you may sigh) but KS & Jay both have $1.62 and Shane has $1.62.5 (I thought after 20c share prices can't be bought in less than 1c multiples) yet out2lunch, myself & jbmurch and others have had to sumbit new guesses?

[duncan macgregor]

Duncan - I'm confused (again you may sigh) but KS & Jay both have $1.62 and Shane has $1.62.5 (I thought after 20c share prices can't be bought in less than 1c multiples) yet out2lunch, myself & jbmurch and others have had to sumbit new guesses? TIM, no need to be confused because they are. Shane has been told and everyone knows that you wont win second picking someones number. I could keep correcting them but you would get sick of all the posts. Macdunk

[tim23]

Good answer, thats clear, thanks

[OutToLunch]

155 for me-

That is taken. Macdunk

Ok, sorry -- pls put me in for the lowest available price over 1.90... thanks. :)

[digger]

i just hit my head while cleaning the car and relised you could be a STOCKBROKER or school teacher so blo-dy conservitive. ::D:DDps but beside that thank you for your valuable input

It takes all of us to make the market so each has their own ideas. Unicorn is indeed using very consertative figures,but to me if you get too much that way your valuations become hopelessly low,infact so much so that they become useless. KUPE valued at only 30cents.If any of the JVers thought that the project would have been shelved long before it got started. The likely final valuation of KUPE is many times larger than TUI. I know there is a time thing here as TUI is NOW and KUPE is still down the track. KUPE though is fast coming up on the radar so the 30cent valuation comes from years gone by. My thinking is that from a dollar the last market revaluation of NZO about half of that is KUPE.Remember KUPE is the biggest of the three project but in income is the most distant,but that is fast changing.
The way all things are unfolding any NZO buy under two dollars will in 12 months or less seem a steal. Then 3 to 4 one year after KUPE is generating income.

[duncan macgregor]

155 for me-


Ok, sorry -- pls put me in for the lowest available price over 1.90... thanks. :) You wouldnt expect me to work out what to buy would you?. Tell me what number you want dont be lazy. Macdunk

[upside_umop]

The reason KUPE seems valued so low, is in fact as you say digger the stretched out nature of the revenues. When you discount at around 13% 20 years ahead, the figure doesnt look flash. ie $100 million in revenue discounted back to now is worth around $9 million ( [100]/[1.13^20] =...and thats revenue. If it was profit, say $40 mill, we would be looking at less than $3.5 million NPV!

Take into account that KUPE is costing NZO around $150 million, which puts your starting NPV at -$150...and you soon start to see, that the NPV will not be as high as you would expect on first glance. The gas contracts were all signed up a few years ago now, which werent too high although the liquids have done well and now hold 2/3 of the value.

The brokerage reports dont give KUPE a high valuation either...which is all for reason as they use a DCF formula also.

20 cents does seem low however, and i think it was at least that in the brokerage reports a few months ago and since oil/liquids have climbed a bit. Some valued Momoho at around 5 cents on its own given its expected return on risk.

Has anyone come up with any upto-date EBITDA/Revenue figures on KUPE based at current liquid prices?

[Bilo]

First half profit was $41.4M, so adding $65M for second half gives $105M (not $145M). This assumes that any appreciation in PRC shares is not taken to book - there is over $30M in potential profit there right now.
Having noted a few recent valuations I worked through my own figures again and came up with ...


Cash...... 21 cps
Tax ...... 4 cps
Licences.. 5 cps
Kupe...... 30 cps
Pike...... 41 cps
Tui....... 84 cps
---
185 cps


The Kupe figure is a totally unsubstantiated guess - I simply do not have enough information to work out anything reliable, so have taken what I believe to be a very conservative figure.



Hi Unicorn, did you calculate your cps on fully diluted number of shares i.e. post NZOOD conversion so ~400M shares?

I did a rough DCF on numbers provided by NZO and came to a Kupe project (as it stands today) NPV to NZO of between 100M and 200M.:)
That is for NZO a NZD160M project worth between NZD260M and NZD360M today.

It is a long life project so is very sensitive to price movements and WACC.
There is a huge upside for incremental gas and liquid discoveries/recoveries.:D

IMO in 20 years time we will be able to prove that the Kupe NPV exceeded the higher value.:p

PS we may not have to wait 20years.

[Crypto Crude]

upside umop-The reason KUPE seems valued so low, is in fact as you say digger the stretched out nature of the revenues. When you discount at around 13% 20 years ahead, the figure doesnt look flash. ie $100 million in revenue discounted back to now is worth around $9 million ( [100]/[1.13^20] =...and thats revenue. If it was profit, say $40 mill, we would be looking at less than $3.5 million NPV!

upside Umop,
You have missed one critical thing...
Kupe is one hundred million every year for 20 years plus...
not just the initial 100million discounted to a present value...
Look at an annuity table... Calculate each years revenues discounted back to the current period...
maybe Add in Momoho.....
Higher Prices for sure....
100million now not enough....
low down, big up investment here....
Current PRC target production rate has Pike worth well over $2 with dividends...
Pike FAR more risky than Kupe.....
:cool:
.^sc

[Bilo]

The reason KUPE seems valued so low, is in fact as you say digger the stretched out nature of the revenues. When you discount at around 13% 20 years ahead, the figure doesnt look flash.

The brokerage reports dont give KUPE a high valuation either...which is all for reason as they use a DCF formula also.

Has anyone come up with any upto-date EBITDA/Revenue figures on KUPE based at current liquid prices?

McDouall put a 37cps on Kupe last January.

I should also have indicated that payback appears to be within 5years. So at the end of five years the project owes us nothing yet will continue to pay back ~200M every five years for the next 15years.

So if you march the clock fwd five years then look at a project that costs you nothing yet is going to bring you $200M then you begin to see the fallacy in naked interpretation of DCF valuations when using crazy WACCs and long periods of time without price and cost estimation/escalation.;)

[upside_umop]

i suppose i didnt make it so clear shrewd, i was just showing how one stream of revenue 20 years away isnt worth as much today discounted back as people would think. Of course the whole project wouldnt be work 3.5 million less its 150 outlay! haaha

If you want annuity, you will end up with similar figure to Unicorn.

An annuity of 100 million for 20 years nets 495 million after initial outlay...
This is only revenue doesnt take into account any expenses, royalties, tax, depreciation...

If profit is assumed to be 40 million for 20 years..its looks a little different!...
We then get a PV (of annuity..) of $118 million

30 million for 20 years becomes.... a PV of $55 million...

You get the picture? It gets low, real quick...and from over 45 cents per share at 118 million, becomes around 20 cents at 30 million....

We need an accurate revenue and overhead estimate to be able to give a decent, upto-date NPV of the project...

[Unicorn]

Hi Unicorn, did you calculate your cps on fully diluted number of shares i.e. post NZOOD conversion so ~400M shares?

I did a rough DCF on numbers provided by NZO and came to a Kupe project (as it stands today) NPV to NZO of between 100M and 200M.:)
That is for NZO a NZD160M project worth between NZD260M and NZD360M today.

It is a long life project so is very sensitive to price movements and WACC.
There is a huge upside for incremental gas and liquid discoveries/recoveries.:D

IMO in 20 years time we will be able to prove that the Kupe NPV exceeded the higher value.:p

PS we may not have to wait 20years.

Hi Bilo

I used the current 260M shares only. After June 30 I will see what happens and recalculate the figures if necessary.

Kupe may well end up costing more than $160M - up to $200M would not surprise. That has the potential to drop npv to $50M to $150M, after the extra interest payments - mid case therefore is about 30 cps.

Over the life cycle of Kupe, I expect energy prices to outperform - so it is likely that the eventual returns will significantly exceed these figures. I am also a strong believer in the permits that NZO hold - I think we will see a lot more oil extracted from the Taranaki Basin and NZO is well positioned to be part of that.

[Crypto Crude]

Good points upside Umop....



Bilo-McDouall put a 37cps on Kupe last January.

Unicorn is far too conservative then isnt he...
add in these factors...
...
Add Rising prices for Gas, Condensate and oil into the future...
Higher prices means production could go further into the future...
Discoveries bought onto line (eg, Momoho) would increase revenue stream....
Kupe is low risk (IMO).... 13% discount rate high....
Spare capacity in place....
....
Prices could be easily doubled off Mcdouall 37c valuation on Kupe in January 2007...
....
:cool:
.^sc

[Unicorn]

McDouall put a 37cps on Kupe last January.


That is not really comparable to the figure I used. Their report contains separate figures for Debt and Corporate, whereas I prefer to include those figures in the projects that caused them.

[digger]

The trouble i have with these WACC figures is that experience has shown they seldom stand up and i would sure be a lot poorer today if i had followed well pencled calulcation based on past results projected forward.In fact both farms i purchased i should not have from bank and farm advisory experts and also against the advise of father in law. Two years ago sold 2/3 of farm but watched how experts farm consultants talked three buyers out of purchasing my farm piece that was sold off.That was just as well as i got in the end more for the 2/3 than what the experts said it was worth. NOW just two years later this farm piecs has been sold off again for a very good profit.So my point is what about the three young hopeful buyers that took this hopefully consertive advice and did not proceed.Lesson is that to consertive advise is a trap that will most likely go a long way to keeping you poor.
you see my point is that in 1962 i came to NZ with just 3 dollars by the time i got my first job and i very much mean only got anywhere by getting a gut feeling for what will work and above all else never allowing myself to be shot in the foot by toooooo consertative calculations.
I do not want to say this but i think i should.Some of you poster might think i do not get into these WACC calculations because i hate figures. Maths was by far my strongest leaning .Last year in highschool[half a century ago] i was the only student that got all honour marks in the three maths subjects.In 1963 i entered a calculus co**** in Hamilton and got wrongly put into a advanced clase on the misinterpetions of my canadian schooling. The problem was i had never done calculus before but as i considered myself top at Maths did not say a word. Spent a few weekends doing nothing but calculus but in the end not only topped the class [40 -45 students] but was offered the job to teach the subject next year. Offer not taken up.

So i have experience in earning money and could work out the WACC if i thought it important. However i do believe that this long post of mine should be considered and above all else that too consertative advise and fancy calculations all too often led to missed opportunties. We are supposted to be making money here and that will only be achieved when the calculations are tempered with a gut feeling of which way up is.
Cheers all

[Mick100]

Digger , I have been involved in business myself and at the age of forty decided to do a degree in business studies. I'm about half way though the degree corse and am becoming quite familiar with WACC, NPV and IRR. (it sounds complicated to the layman but the calculations are dead easy, especially on a financial calculator)

If I had to choose, who to take advice from on investment decisions, between an academic and an experienced businessman, it would be an easy choice - the experienced businessman would win - no contest.

The big problem with the NPV calcs is in the estimation of cash inflows.
We know what the cost of capital will be, we can make an accurate estimate of initial investment outlay but god only knows what cash inflows are going to be - does anyone know exactly what the price of oil will be in one yr from now or two/three yrs from now?

[Steve]

Digger , I have been involved in business myself and at the age of forty decided to do a degree in business studies. I'm about half way though the degree corse and am becoming quite familiar with WACC, NPV and IRR. (it sounds complicated to the layman but the calculations are dead easy, especially on a financial calculator)

Use a spreadsheet for your calculations as it makes it far easier when running multiple scenarios... :)

[bermuda]

The trouble i have with these WACC figures is that experience has shown they seldom stand up and i would sure be a lot poorer today if i had followed well pencled calulcation based on past results projected forward.In fact both farms i purchased i should not have from bank and farm advisory experts and also against the advise of father in law. Two years ago sold 2/3 of farm but watched how experts farm consultants talked three buyers out of purchasing my farm piece that was sold off.That was just as well as i got in the end more for the 2/3 than what the experts said it was worth. NOW just two years later this farm piecs has been sold off again for a very good profit.So my point is what about the three young hopeful buyers that took this hopefully consertive advice and did not proceed.Lesson is that to consertive advise is a trap that will most likely go a long way to keeping you poor.
you see my point is that in 1962 i came to NZ with just 3 dollars by the time i got my first job and i very much mean only got anywhere by getting a gut feeling for what will work and above all else never allowing myself to be shot in the foot by toooooo consertative calculations.
I do not want to say this but i think i should.Some of you poster might think i do not get into these WACC calculations because i hate figures. Maths was by far my strongest leaning .Last year in highschool[half a century ago] i was the only student that got all honour marks in the three maths subjects.In 1963 i entered a calculus co**** in Hamilton and got wrongly put into a advanced clase on the misinterpetions of my canadian schooling. The problem was i had never done calculus before but as i considered myself top at Maths did not say a word. Spent a few weekends doing nothing but calculus but in the end not only topped the class [40 -45 students] but was offered the job to teach the subject next year. Offer not taken up.

So i have experience in earning money and could work out the WACC if i thought it important. However i do believe that this long post of mine should be considered and above all else that too consertative advise and fancy calculations all too often led to missed opportunties. We are supposted to be making money here and that will only be achieved when the calculations are tempered with a gut feeling of which way up is.
Cheers all

Digger,
Enjoyed that post...and congratulations on all your achievements. You saw the same value in NZO as I did. And now we reap the rewards.

[arjay]

The problem with financial calculators is that they don't have a gut-feeling button. How is Momoho worth 5c? Seems to me it's worth either heaps or nothing. Only a drill will tell.

[bk]

The problem with financial calculators is that they don't have a gut-feeling button. How is Momoho worth 5c? Seems to me it's worth either heaps or nothing. Only a drill will tell.

Of course you are right - the 5c is a guestimate of what it is worth to a gambler.

But the story for NZO is in the main positive - forever rising oil prices (?), soon coal from Pike, and most likely good income from Kupe MUST (I hope) drive the NZO share price in the coming years to stellar hights (well, at least $2.50 I would say). Throw in Momoho, and we are talking $2.55 (or more)

[OutToLunch]

You wouldnt expect me to work out what to buy would you?. Tell me what number you want dont be lazy. Macdunk

I will try for 193 then. BTW, handy hint #147: your list of who has picked what is hard to trawl through to see what's gone and what hasn't. Listing picks in price order would help. :)

[Bob C]

I did offer to send our learned friend my spreadsheet of picks!

Bob C

[duncan macgregor]

Competition to select NZO share price on conversion date June 30th
in the event of a tie the winner is the person with the correct score posting first
I will list you in posting order.
1,AMR 180c, 2, OILER 165c, 3,Macdunk 159c. 4,MATTYROO 158c.
5,SEAMUS 135c, 6,SERPIE 131c, 7, LIZ 120c, 8, STRAT157c.
9TRACKERS 168, 10, COLIN 170, 11,THE MACHINE 210c. 12,MALCOLM 200c.
13,SPOOK 172, 14,BIG BOB184c, 15,ZORBA 155c, 16, REMY 167c,
17 AMERICAN PSYCHO 175c 18 SHASTA 161c, 19RONTHEPOM 171c 20 PHAEDRUS 160.
21SHREWDY 169, 22 BERMUDA 149, 23 MORV 183c, 24 COALIE 188c
25 DIGGER 173c, 26 blank, 27 NITA 181c, 28 SUMMER NED 193c.
29 QOH 179c, 30 WK6332 225c 31 BALANCE $10-60 32 KS 162,
33 TOK3N 145c, 34 SHANE M 162.5c, 35CORRAN 156c, 36 MICK100 300c.
37 DSURF 154c, 38 SKEET 185c,39 MIBO 177c, 40 JAY 162c,
41 ZACMAN 187c, 42 GAMBLER33 115c, 43 ANUBUS144c, 44 BRUCETO9 164c.
45 romer 163c.46 HOOP 147c 47 RABBI 148c 48 ROTWEILLER 153c,
49 MINGEATHINAIOOS 150c,50 MANXMAN 195c, 51 MACDUFFY 146c, 52 BLOCKHEAD 198c,
53 777 226c,54 SWISSBOY 174c,55 AIRDALE166,56 CLIPS 178c,
57 PADDIE 196c,58 FOODEE 176, 59 BK152c,60 MPC182c,
61 STEVE 151,62 ONTHEMONEY 143, 63 LION 186, 64,TIM23 189c,
65 BOB C 190 66 RIF RAF 191c 67, OUT TO LUNCH 194 68 SEHNSUCHT888 192c,

[duncan macgregor]

I did offer to send our learned friend my spreadsheet of picks!

Bob C Bob if they cant work it out for themselves then what hope have they got playing the market. Macdunk

[zac]

Up to 153c with good support. The momentum builds.

[JBmurc]

....159......was my first pick 1.90 my second if its still there if not $1.91 yhanks

[Sumnerned]

Hi McDunk and Out To Lunch.

OTL you're squatting on my number, 193. Geroff!

Cheers

[duncan macgregor]

Hi McDunk and Out To Lunch.

OTL you're squatting on my number, 193. Geroff!

Cheers No worries first in has the win second in has thrown their pick down the drain.
JB MURK, I picked 159 look it up and tell me what you want to select. Its up to everyone to make sure they have a winning chance. Macdunk

[Mick100]

Macklunk - you could put an end to the confusion and winging by disqualifying all picks below $2.00 - they are unrealistic :)

,

[zac]

Who says. Up from $1.00 in mid Jan to $1.53 today with plenty of good news to come.

[duncan macgregor]

Macklunk - you could put an end to the confusion and winging by disqualifying all picks below $2.00 - they are unrealistic :)

, Or what do you reckon,? Clasify the $3-00 and over selections as being braindead when they should have waited until the last day to nail it on the button. Macdunk

[JBmurc]

$2.01 I hoping on success on the next drill

[Crypto Crude]

MD,
update competition rules....eliminate all picks below $1.60...
those wollys are out of contention...
;)
.^sc

[spook]

$2.01 I hoping on success on the next drill

So that makes the options worth.............51c less original buy price:D

I hear Hawaii's nice in July,and maybe Monaco after that!

[digger]

Duncan Macgregor ,several things to consider about your competition.
1/ we need a cut off date.The longer this runs the more favoured a late pick can be especially if it looks like the investing public is finally wakeing up to NZO. So lets have a finish date that you will have to select.
2/ June 30 is a monday and not a holiday so all right there,but i do have a small problem with the value we should all agree on ahead of time. If you say the last trade of 30 june that is too maniplutive as the end of the day is often played with and as well 30 june is end of year so there could be some window dressing as well. I suggest that you consider making it the weighted average for all trades on 30june. Give this some thought and let us clearly know what we are to agree on.
3/ I have in the past made heaps of money out of Montana Wines so have some faimiluary with their wine distrubtion which is very helpfull. Therefore i am going to contact them shortly and prepay 100 or slightly more and the winner can then select from there online list.That way they can have whatever wine or wines they wish.I note this year all the 100 dollar wines listed are french,where there are some good NZ one cheaper. That would be their choice.The prise is about 100 or as near as you can get and this will then be forwarded and paid to whatever address is given.

[digger]

Oh and by the way the winners address will have to be given to me by DM.. I note even now there are many claiming the same numbers so we do not want more than one winner.Amen

[duncan macgregor]

Duncan Macgregor ,several things to consider about your competition.
1/ we need a cut off date.The longer this runs the more favoured a late pick can be especially if it looks like the investing public is finally wakeing up to NZO. So lets have a finish date that you will have to select.
2/ June 30 is a monday and not a holiday so all right there,but i do have a small problem with the value we should all agree on ahead of time. If you say the last trade of 30 june that is too maniplutive as the end of the day is often played with and as well 30 june is end of year so there could be some window dressing as well. I suggest that you consider making it the weighted average for all trades on 30june. Give this some thought and let us clearly know what we are to agree on.
3/ I have in the past made heaps of money out of Montana Wines so have some faimiluary with their wine distrubtion which is very helpfull. Therefore i am going to contact them shortly and prepay 100 or slightly more and the winner can then select from there online list.That way they can have whatever wine or wines they wish.I note this year all the 100 dollar wines listed are french,where there are some good NZ one cheaper. That would be their choice.The prise is about 100 or as near as you can get and this will then be forwarded and paid to whatever address is given. No worries DIGGER the winner is the last trade on June the 30th at 5pm on direct broking site. WHEN I WIN i will get the person who was nicest to me to E-Mail their address on where to send the prize.
Read the rule carefully and work it out Macdunk will outsmart the lot of you. Macdunk

[Mick100]

No worries DIGGER the winner is the last trade on June the 30th at 5pm on direct broking site. WHEN I WIN i will get the person who was nicest to me to E-Mail their address on where to send the prize.
Read the rule carefully and work it out Macdunk will outsmart the lot of you. Macdunk

Macklunk - your begginning to sound like Robert Mugarbi