NZ Oil & Gas (NZO)

[Unicorn]

The trouble i have with these WACC figures is that experience has shown they seldom stand up and i would sure be a lot poorer today if i had followed well pencled calulcation based on past results projected forward.In fact both farms i purchased i should not have from bank and farm advisory experts and also against the advise of father in law. Two years ago sold 2/3 of farm but watched how experts farm consultants talked three buyers out of purchasing my farm piece that was sold off.That was just as well as i got in the end more for the 2/3 than what the experts said it was worth. NOW just two years later this farm piecs has been sold off again for a very good profit.So my point is what about the three young hopeful buyers that took this hopefully consertive advice and did not proceed.Lesson is that to consertive advise is a trap that will most likely go a long way to keeping you poor.
you see my point is that in 1962 i came to NZ with just 3 dollars by the time i got my first job and i very much mean only got anywhere by getting a gut feeling for what will work and above all else never allowing myself to be shot in the foot by toooooo consertative calculations.
I do not want to say this but i think i should.Some of you poster might think i do not get into these WACC calculations because i hate figures. Maths was by far my strongest leaning .Last year in highschool[half a century ago] i was the only student that got all honour marks in the three maths subjects.In 1963 i entered a calculus co**** in Hamilton and got wrongly put into a advanced clase on the misinterpetions of my canadian schooling. The problem was i had never done calculus before but as i considered myself top at Maths did not say a word. Spent a few weekends doing nothing but calculus but in the end not only topped the class [40 -45 students] but was offered the job to teach the subject next year. Offer not taken up.

So i have experience in earning money and could work out the WACC if i thought it important. However i do believe that this long post of mine should be considered and above all else that too consertative advise and fancy calculations all too often led to missed opportunties. We are supposted to be making money here and that will only be achieved when the calculations are tempered with a gut feeling of which way up is.
Cheers all

Hi Digger

You are quite correct in what you say. But I think you misunderstand what my attempt at a valuation is all about. I have tried to assess where I think the market should settle at in the short term, given the information that is widely available and accepted right now. Being the NZX I am sure it will settle at a conservative level, so I must take an equally conservative approach.

Your examples show how you have correctly predicted the future, while the experts were stuck in the present. I agree that is the way to really increase your wealth. My current valuation indicates NZO is underpriced, with some money (perhaps 40 cps) to be made short term (if nothing changes, and ignoring the NZOOD impact). But that is pretty insignificant compared to what may happen in the future depending on whether ...

price of oil increases
more oil/gas is found
PRC share price appreciates
exchange rate shifts


I have valued PRC at the current PRC share price, but that does not mean I think it will be at that price in 12 months - it means I expect the market at the moment to see that as the PRC value attributable to NZO. I have valued the data and permits at a minimal figure, but that does not mean I think that is what they are really worth. I have used current Tui reserves, but that does not mean I think that accurately reflects what will eventually be produced from the permit.

I hold NZO not because I see current share price as being 40cps short, but because I think that the way things are likely to develop over the next year or two will mean NZO is a much more valuable company than that. Having that 40c buffer at present just gives me extra peace of mind, and discourages any thought of short term profit taking.

[duncan macgregor]

Macklunk - your begginning to sound like Robert Mugarbi
MICK, I am a white basterd he is a black bastard surely even an Irish GIT could tell the difference. To get back to reality MICK its only a bit of fun that is showing participants weaknesses. One simple rule and look at all the confused punters. I would hate to try to teach some of them the nine times table. Macdunk

[JBmurc]

So that makes the options worth.............51c less original buy price:D

I hear Hawaii's nice in July,and maybe Monaco after that!

yeah certainly makes buying my NZO at 1.01 sweet $77,000 sweeter

[zorba]

.
Unicorn,

Thanks for all the work gone into your analysis of NZO.

Your last two paragraphs above give a excellent summary of the balance between selling, holding or further buying !!

Regarding the options, I sometimes forget that the option conversion, while it introduces more shares onto the company register, it is also bringing a $1.50 with each new share so the dilutionary effects are neutral around a share price of $1.50.

Once options are execised and the share price is trending above 1.50 then yes dilution effects kick in. If share price falls back then extra cash in company's coffers should act as a partial buffer to a fall below $1.50.

The company benefits by having the extra cash to work with but they still have to build up assets and add value faster than you can get on deposit.

All in all NZO looking good.

Z

[JBmurc]

If you want a company to yeild divies buy a retail stock .. etc personal I don't know of any emerging Oil energy company's that do or are planning on pay divies ,more likely once their more advanced in the developments they may do a share-buy back-like what boysy was saying.
IMHO futher Oil Gas Coal developments is were the extra funds should go or maybe some JV's with others in there sector and if there got zillions of $$$$$$$$$$ in cashflow I can promise you there SP will increase -

---Increasing -Reserves+Cashflows+further drilling & developing =Increasing SP & Mrktcap


-As I've said before if you don't want you NZO's I'll buy them for $1

well only 6months ago- many no believers sold early-IMHO patience is a virture with NZO I will only be selling If I need the funds to build min 1yr away

[OutToLunch]

Hi McDunk and Out To Lunch.

OTL you're squatting on my number, 193. Geroff!

Cheers

Ah bugger. Try me again at $1.94? Failing that, $2.90. :D

MacD, you really need to enter the world of spreadsheets, your life will never be the same. :rolleyes:

[Sehnsucht888]

Duncan - Can I have 192 please... I think its still free. I would go lower, as I think thats more likely, but when there is wine involved I have to be in, rather than out.. and there ain't anything lower an reasonable.

There is plenty of time for great news, and 10 odd weeks to go before option close.

There has to be a drop at some stage as people get needed cash to convert, but given the big buying pressure at the moment, US seeming to stabalise, maybe that will just be from 2.10 down to 1.92...

Can but hope.. Realistically I think I'm 20c high, but if Momoho is a gusher, it could work...

[bermuda]

The charts on NZO defy description. If you didnt know the background you would say oversold. Come on you chartists..what do you think???

A lot to look forward to you.

[fish]

Hi Digger

You are quite correct in what you say. But I think you misunderstand what my attempt at a valuation is all about. I have tried to assess where I think the market should settle at in the short term, given the information that is widely available and accepted right now. Being the NZX I am sure it will settle at a conservative level, so I must take an equally conservative approach.

Your examples show how you have correctly predicted the future, while the experts were stuck in the present. I agree that is the way to really increase your wealth. My current valuation indicates NZO is underpriced, with some money (perhaps 40 cps) to be made short term (if nothing changes, and ignoring the NZOOD impact). But that is pretty insignificant compared to what may happen in the future depending on whether ...

price of oil increases
more oil/gas is found
PRC share price appreciates
exchange rate shifts


I have valued PRC at the current PRC share price, but that does not mean I think it will be at that price in 12 months - it means I expect the market at the moment to see that as the PRC value attributable to NZO. I have valued the data and permits at a minimal figure, but that does not mean I think that is what they are really worth. I have used current Tui reserves, but that does not mean I think that accurately reflects what will eventually be produced from the permit.

I hold NZO not because I see current share price as being 40cps short, but because I think that the way things are likely to develop over the next year or two will mean NZO is a much more valuable company than that. Having that 40c buffer at present just gives me extra peace of mind, and discourages any thought of short term profit taking.

unicorn -I fully agree that the market is pricing NZO far too low and short-term profit taking is likely to result in regret in the short-term . I see Tapis is now 123.63 us and prc has climbed to 130 cents . With OPEC either unable or unwilling to increase supply I feel the price of oil is more likely to rise than fall . Have you ever tried to model nzo valuation to take account of the impact of continued oil price rises ?
.As I am a long term holder and not a trader-although I do buy and sell a small percentage of my portfolio for a variety of reasons- I try and detach myself (unsuccessful ) from the vagarities of the market when it is down -and enjoy the ups-I feel we should not use conservative valuations but fundamentals based on current prices

[AMR]

The charts on NZO defy description. If you didnt know the background you would say oversold. Come on you chartists..what do you think???

A lot to look forward to you.

It's "buy on the dips" mode for me. I'm just waiting for a severe-enough pullback before I double up on NZO.

If there are any fibonacci techies out there, where's the next resistance?

[Unicorn]

unicorn - Have you ever tried to model nzo valuation to take account of the impact of continued oil price rises ?

Hi Fish

I have run numerous models covering a lot of different scenarios. There are not many likely scenarios that show much downside, as the share price appears to have a risk discount built in. There are a lot of possible scenarios that show great upside. Price of oil, exchange rate and amount of oil/gas produced are the critical factors, along with risk avoidance.

The price of oil is already very strong, and I do see it falling too far in the forseeable future. I can see a pullback when oil trading becomes less profitable and the speculative money moves on, but the underlying supply/demand position should see long term strength. Texas and North Sea fields no longer have the capacity to keep a lid on prices for the West and OPEC seems happy with $100 and above. Rig contract prices and terms indicate that oil price is expected to remain high for some time to come.

Our exchange rate should eventually fall relative to the basket when our interest rates come down. If we appear to rise due to US$ weakness then the price of oil will probably move to compensate.

NZO is a partner in some excellent permits. The last four holes may not have been successful, but there is a considerable and growing knowledge base of the Taranaki basin within NZO. I think there is a good chance of more success in the two key oil permits (PMP38158 and PEP 38499). Yet another Tui upgrade is likely, given the consistent over-performance to date and the new production well to be drilled.

Kupe is getting nearer - with a plant that has vastly more capacity than is justified by reserves discovered to date.

Since the poor start to the PRC project, NZO management have performed pretty well in most areas. Unfortunately for the share price for a while, PR was not a key focus - prior to the dividend announcement. It is heartening to see that there have been no rash decisions as they embark on the growth strategy.

Of course there is risk - and plenty of it. But the current and potential earnings streams are very attractive compared to anything else on offer on the NZX.

[Phaedrus]

The charts on NZO defy description....

How so Bermuda? I see it as a nice clear well behaved chart showing very reliable signals. Here is an update for you.

http://h1.ripway.com/Phaedrus/NZO421.gif

Notice how well the OBV signals correlate with the price plot signals.
See how simple TA got you out very close to the peak price in early 2005.
Observe how the OBV indicator kept you out of this stock for years as NZO plodded doggedly sideways, going nowhere.
Note how buying when the OBV finally began to rise gave an excellent re-entry point.
Although this uptrend did not go very far, see how the OBV and price trendline break got you out of NZO before you gave too much of your profit back to the market.
Observe the current steady, strong, steep uptrend.
See how it is confirmed by the steadily rising OBV.

While "buying and holding" NZO longterm has given good profits, more active investing has given better results. Don't forget that this stock went nowhere for 3 years in the middle of a very strong Bull market! That was an awfully long time to hold and hope and it carried a very, very high opportunity cost. The use of simple technical analysis kept you out of NZO all that time.

[the machine]

http://www.nzog.net/news/2008/McDouall%20Stuart%20Updated%20Research%20Note%20Ap r08.pdf

not sure if already mentioned on the thread.

nzo seem to have just put it on their website without any fanfare.

the report made headlines in energy review website though.

M

[bermuda]

Hi Phaedrus,
You make it look so simple.
I am not a trader. Wouldnt have a clue. I just go on fundamentals but sometimes I am a bit early. At least now the market is waking up.

[arjay]

http://www.nzog.net/news/2008/McDouall%20Stuart%20Updated%20Research%20Note%20Ap r08.pdf

not sure if already me4ntioned on the thread.

nzo seem to have just putit on theirwebsite without any fanfare.

the report made headlines in energy review website though.

M


Thanks for that Machine, interesting they cite Momoho as a 50-day drill. If it spuds this week that means TD by around 15th (2 weeks flexibility for results before June 30).

[tricha]

It's "buy on the dips" mode for me. I'm just waiting for a severe-enough pullback before I double up on NZO.

If there are any fibonacci techies out there, where's the next resistance?

Wait till the quarter is out and it will be gone:rolleyes: Appreciate the nice cheque and expect bigger ones to come.:D

[the machine]

Thanks for that Machine, interesting they cite Momoho as a 50-day drill. If it spuds this week that means TD by around 15th (2 weeks flexibility for results before June 30).


50 days is a very long time to drill, even considering testing both sides of a fault
[read that somewhere]

if drilling from present platform location, that might account for the 50 days, inturn one has to ask themselves why bother drilling extra 5km distance when shifting the rig would cut the drill time [weather shifting window aside]

the perfect answer on top of our wish list is the drill is an exploration come production drill, but can't think about that yet, instead we patiently wait [as noggers do] on the drill location to be announced within next 2 weeks.

The crown minerals site clearly shows the farewell formation extends from kupe-4 south
[through momoho] to kupe-5 south

M

[the machine]

Thanks for that Machine, interesting they cite Momoho as a 50-day drill. If it spuds this week that means TD by around 15th (2 weeks flexibility for results before June 30).


so nzo was ranked 27# in the top 50 as at april 14 and if all options converted then would ranked 17th.

If momoho delivers the goods and a tui upgrade, then the options will be well in the money, inturn nzo could crack the top 15 come early july!

M

[Mick100]

While "buying and holding" NZO longterm has given good profits, more active investing has given better results. Don't forget that this stock went nowhere for 3 years in the middle of a very strong Bull market! That was an awfully long time to hold and hope and it carried a very, very high opportunity cost. The use of simple technical analysis kept you out of NZO all that time.


Phaedrus, I have raised this issue before - you never make mention of your tax liabilities of your trading. If your juming in and out of shares as the trends change then I assume all of your profits are taxable. In this instance with NZO, how much better off are you after deducting taxes from your profits - my guess is - not much better off than long term holders.
.

[Oiler]

Thanks for that Machine, interesting they cite Momoho as a 50-day drill. If it spuds this week that means TD by around 15th (2 weeks flexibility for results before June 30).

Arjay I doubt it will spud this week as they still need to test the drilled wells and that hasnt happened yet. Ther will be large flares burning for several days off the coast of Taranaki as each well is cleand up.

My guess is 2 weeks before the Ensco moves to Momoho. :eek:

Oiler

[fish]

[QUOTE=Unicorn;195960]Hi Fish
.
Thanks yet again for your considered appraisal ,
G Ward has just been interviewed on tv3 and has confirmed that prc is not locked into previous coking prices-can take full advantage of the current $300 us pricing with the 2 indian shareholders and nippon steel .
Tapis has climbed again this morning to a new peak of $124.
No analyst has released valuations for nzo based on these kind prices .
I suspect nzo using current prices could be valued at close to $3

[manxman]

Meanwhile, if we can get past McDunk's contest for a while.

http://www.247wallst.com/2008/04/as-opec-hold-pr.html has an opinion on the price of oil. At $150 you could get a fine whisky for the price of a single barrel.

Mx

[digger]

While "buying and holding" NZO longterm has given good profits, more active investing has given better results. Don't forget that this stock went nowhere for 3 years in the middle of a very strong Bull market! That was an awfully long time to hold and hope and it carried a very, very high opportunity cost. The use of simple technical analysis kept you out of NZO all that time.


Phaedrus, I have raised this issue before - you never make mention of your tax liabilities of your trading. If your juming in and out of shares as the trends change then I assume all of your profits are taxable. In this instance with NZO, how much better off are you after deducting taxes from your profits - my guess is - not much better off than long term holders.
.

Mike100,I used to be a trader and after a personal talk with IRD representives at my own request decided that buying long term and holding for development and eventual dividends was the way to go. According to me even in the long three year side movement that NZO went through one would still be better off as income is not taxable and no associated expenses and heavy time committment that comes with trading. Also it is only very clear in hind sight when to exit and when to reenter a stock.
I have also seen somewhere years ago a big research on this subject that tended to favour long trem holders over traders for the many hidden cost with trading.The only down side of this little beauty [NZO] is that i will not live long enought to capture all the benefit.OK maybe 5 cents dividend here and there then come 20 then 50 ,etc etc,

[digger]

hit us$17.20 barrel nymex 3.05am now they are saying world fundimentals driving price, --- s0 if it,s the case us$150.oo by europe summer:):):)
Quick as you can Malcolm tell me where i can get some of this oil that hit $17.20

[zorba]

Mike100,I used to be a trader and after a personal talk with IRD representives at my own request decided that buying long term and holding for development and eventual dividends was the way to go. According to me even in the long three year side movement that NZO went through one would still be better off as income is not taxable and no associated expenses and heavy time committment that comes with trading. Also it is only very clear in hind sight when to exit and when to reenter a stock.

I have also seen somewhere years ago a big research on this subject that tended to favour long trem holders over traders for the many hidden cost with trading.The only down side of this little beauty [NZO] is that i will not live long enought to capture all the benefit.OK maybe 5 cents dividend here and there then come 20 then 50 ,etc etc,

Mike100 and Digger,

Both very interesting posts -- and I think you guys are on the button !!

Hindsight is a wonderfull thing and its great that Phaedrus can show us how it could work if you follow all the trigger points in his graphs. But as Digger points out, the critical question is: are the trigger points so obvious at the time that the buying or selling decisions can be made with confidence ?

Given the sidewise movement over last three years it would be possible for a inexperienced trader to go through a series of "buy high - sell low" scenarios and end up with less and less money.

We have seen this happen with McDunk, and he is supposed to be experienced ..... and this pompous prig has been heaping scorn on the NZO and its longer term shareholders for years.

He has passed his parcels on to others at a loss, and now he runs a competition on the upward movement of NZO's share price. And why would it be McDunk running this competition ?

Is this competition some sort of Pavlovian destraction needed by his deep cortex (he is after all Brian Dead, and only the lower cortex flickers occasionally) as a defense against the mouth-watering prospect of NZO reaping excellent rewards for its long term investers ?

And where is that other pompous prig Balance ? What a Slimey Knocker if ever there was one.

I hope S-Kn Balance and B-D McDunk are carefully reading the latest McDouall Stuart appraisal of NZO posted on the NZOG website.

The report is all about the fundamentals and thats whats driving the current shareprice higher.

Z
.

[duncan macgregor]

ZORBA, Get a life you sound like a scorned little girl to me. NZO went sideways for the last four years and is only recently reached a higher sp than it was then. We had a bullmarket for petes sake where i doubled my money twice. The braindead sat it out missed the opportunity sitting and hoping. Now that its coming right you pour abuse on the people who showed you the opportunity you missed. I did ask if anyone wanted to run the competition with no luck so did it myself. Incidently i selected $1-59 which is still higher than todays sp so get a life you silly little person. Macdunk
ZORBA ENTRY $1-55
MACDUNK ENTRY $1-59

[Nitaa]

ZORBA, Get a life you sound like a scorned little girl to me. NZO went sideways for the last four years and is only recently reached a higher sp than it was then. We had a bullmarket for petes sake where i doubled my money twice. The braindead sat it out missed the opportunity sitting and hoping. Now that its coming right you pour abuse on the people who showed you the opportunity you missed. I did ask if anyone wanted to run the competition with no luck so did it myself. Incidently i selected $1-59 which is still higher than todays sp so get a life you silly little person. Macdunk
ZORBA ENTRY $1-55
MACDUNK ENTRY $1-59Dunkin...dont forget that nzo only about 5 years ago was at 26 cps (increase of 600%) in that time. who cares about nzo going sideways for 3 years in that time.

just a month or 2 ago your system bailed you at $1.10 for a break even. Even though I specifgically told you that anything around $1.00 was a steal. Downside at that tiome was maybe high 80's (about 10 - 15% max) upside was any ol number. If people were silly enough to listen to you that most prbably would have committed suicide by then.

For 3 years you constantly kept on kicking people in the head whil nzo was going nowhere (dispite a 300 - 400% gain in the year or 2 prior). You brought at $1.16 during that time and sold below $1.00. Your agenda to me any many othersd were, because you lost you wanted to bring others down. Now you are squabbling when nzo holders are having their time in the sun..

no sympathy for you there md. congrats to Bermuda, Zorba, Digger and others who listen to your bulldust and sat through knowing what they know and you dont.

your buddy Nita :-)

ps. Its an opportunity of buying your options at what you sold it for

[the machine]

Arjay I doubt it will spud this week as they still need to test the drilled wells and that hasnt happened yet. Ther will be large flares burning for several days off the coast of Taranaki as each well is cleand up.

My guess is 2 weeks before the Ensco moves to Momoho. :eek:

Oiler

thanks oiler

M

[trackers]

Sweet, 50% up on options, unfortunately now sold (damn those old sell orders!) :(

Looking at re-entry on any weakness (possibly around, or after, Momoho)

[the machine]

is there any news if tui still only producing from 3 wells, with 4th kept offline otherwise to much oil?

M

[tim23]

Duncan - stop bragging about your profits, we have hear it so often before, its boring and not relevant to this post. The point is some of us aren't rying to time in and time out of this stock becasue if you do sell and the price never retraces you would miss most of the gains.

[arjay]

Arjay I doubt it will spud this week as they still need to test the drilled wells and that hasnt happened yet. Ther will be large flares burning for several days off the coast of Taranaki as each well is cleand up.

My guess is 2 weeks before the Ensco moves to Momoho. :eek:

Oiler

Thanks Oiler,
Looks like it will be down to the wire for Momoho then, but the way the SP is shaping up
the oppies may not need Momoho to be in the money.

[zorba]

Dunkin...dont forget that nzo only about 5 years ago was at 26 cps (increase of 600%) in that time. who cares about nzo going sideways for 3 years in that time.

just a month or 2 ago your system bailed you at $1.10 for a break even. Even though I specifgically told you that anything around $1.00 was a steal. Downside at that tiome was maybe high 80's (about 10 - 15% max) upside was any ol number. If people were silly enough to listen to you that most prbably would have committed suicide by then.

For 3 years you constantly kept on kicking people in the head whil nzo was going nowhere (dispite a 300 - 400% gain in the year or 2 prior). You brought at $1.16 during that time and sold below $1.00. Your agenda to me any many othersd were, because you lost you wanted to bring others down. Now you are squabbling when nzo holders are having their time in the sun..

no sympathy for you there md. congrats to Bermuda, Zorba, Digger and others who listen to your bulldust and sat through knowing what they know and you dont.

your buddy Nita :-)

ps. Its an opportunity of buying your options at what you sold it for


Nita, thanks for the support .....

And bye the bye I was speaking to that guy Waaihoek the other day, the guy that did all that NPV modeling some years ago, he still posts occasionally on Fixx .... he is pleased NZOG is finally getting its underlying value confirmed .....

Waaihoek says he is older and a little wiser, particularly regarding the time it takes to get projects completed, derisked, and into production and the effect all that has on market perception and shareprice value.

Z

[airedale]

`Funny old world:)....now that we actually have a "drill and thrill" situation ....Macdunk has stopped yodelling on about it. That phrase was trotted out on every other post of his a couple of years ago:D.

[digger]

`Funny old world:)....now that we actually have a "drill and thrill" situation ....Macdunk has stopped yodelling on about it. That phrase was trotted out on every other post of his a couple of years ago:D.

My summary of Momoho is that it is not "drill and thrill" but drill and confirm.But we shall see.

[Crypto Crude]

$2 NZO SP here we come...
....
Ive been toe to toe with MD for the best part of one year, im staying out of this...
:cool:
.^sc

[duncan macgregor]

$2 NZO SP here we come...
....
Ive been toe to toe with MD for the best part of one year, im staying out of this...
:cool:
.^sc SHREWDY C-MON mate its only a bit of fun the punters would have nothing worth saying otherwise. NITA is out the closet at last, trading as a bloke.
Some of the others are in a contest with one simple rule that gets them confused. Others only want to talk about peak bloody oil. The sp is up 20 odd cents in four years making them all rich. The thrill has gone out the drill we need you to have a go coming up to pass the parcel. I sold the parcel for 9c and placed my bet at $1-59. Its a bit of a worry with ZORBA accusing me of being a downramper yet placing his bet at only $1-55. He might have inside knowledge do you think?. Macdunk

[spook]

Sweet, 50% up on options, unfortunately now sold (damn those old sell orders!) :(

Looking at re-entry on any weakness (possibly around, or after, Momoho)


A lot of guys on here are talking about $2 a share, which should make the options worth 50c each, but at least 20c if it reaches $1.70 by June 30th.
I think that's a very realistic expectation and I'm more than happy to pay 9c for opts, rather than hope for an (unlikely) retracement. My heads went from $1.24 to $1.54 in 3 weeks, and my opts rose 50% in 5 days but I'm new at this option business. I hope I'm not overlooking something here?

[Crypto Crude]

Do I think,
....
MD,
I try not to...
you and Zorba are both Heavy hitters... Zorba is strapped with a hand gun and you are weilding an ak47 firing shots into the air at will... styled like and Arabian Lord...haha...
Im just the dude in the middle...
...
I told you about NZO before it happened, told you what would happen and now it's happened... I quite clearly remember the time I first bought NZOOD, I felt so bad about it because of what you said... in the end I was undeterred, and one of the few to come out and openly say I bought...
I'll leave the debating between us on the Homebuyers thread...
NZO has run as expected... whats to argue about?
admit if you were right or wrong - either way....
...
..
.
I think we are quite similar MD,
posters here would think that Mackdunk is an argumentitive type of person in real life...I believe your online persona is nothing like the real MD...
Im exactly the same...
Ive been told that im an animal who speaks my own mind and never holds back Online... the real me is quite the opposite...
enjoy it while it lasts MD, because one day NZO will hit $2, and sail to $3,
make sure you are on the right side before its too late... its not too late...
Tui and Kupe is the value, Pike is effectively free...
:cool:
.^sc

[duncan macgregor]

SPOOK, Option at 9.5 for a buyer. Sp $1-56. at this moment. On june the 30th your new bought option has cost you to convert $1-59.5.
The sp at $1-56 has cost you $1-56 which means that the options against the sp are not really a good buy unless you trade them off before expiry date. If the sp sky rockets up then it is a cheap method of being in the money. Macdunk

[duncan macgregor]

[QUOTE=duncan macgregor;195886]Competition to select NZO share price on conversion date June 30th
in the event of a tie the winner is the person with the correct score posting first
I will list you in posting order.
1,AMR 180c, 2, OILER 165c, 3,Macdunk 159c. 4,MATTYROO 158c.
5,SEAMUS 135c, 6,SERPIE 131c, 7, LIZ 120c, 8, STRAT157c.
9TRACKERS 168, 10, COLIN 170, 11,THE MACHINE 210c. 12,MALCOLM 200c.
13,SPOOK 172, 14,BIG BOB184c, 15,ZORBA 155c, 16, REMY 167c,
17 AMERICAN PSYCHO 175c 18 SHASTA 161c, 19RONTHEPOM 171c 20 PHAEDRUS 160.
21SHREWDY 169, 22 BERMUDA 149, 23 MORV 183c, 24 COALIE 188c
25 DIGGER 173c, 26 blank, 27 NITA 181c, 28 SUMMER NED 193c.
29 QOH 179c, 30 WK6332 225c 31 BALANCE $10-60 32 KS 162,
33 TOK3N 145c, 34 SHANE M 162.5c, 35CORRAN 156c, 36 MICK100 300c.
37 DSURF 154c, 38 SKEET 185c,39 MIBO 177c, 40 JAY 162c,
41 ZACMAN 187c, 42 GAMBLER33 115c, 43 ANUBUS144c, 44 BRUCETO9 164c.
45 romer 163c.46 HOOP 147c 47 RABBI 148c 48 ROTWEILLER 153c,
49 MINGEATHINAIOOS 150c,50 MANXMAN 195c, 51 MACDUFFY 146c, 52 BLOCKHEAD 198c,
53 777 226c,54 SWISSBOY 174c,55 AIRDALE166,56 CLIPS 178c,
57 PADDIE 196c,58 FOODEE 176, 59 BK152c,60 MPC182c,
61 STEVE 151,62 ONTHEMONEY 143, 63 LION 186, 64,TIM23 189c,
65 BOB C 190 66 RIF RAF 191c 67, OUT TO LUNCH 194 68 SEHNSUCHT888 192c,
69 PIETRADE 220c,

[Unicorn]

with these figure,s 1st jan to 30th june 183 days x ave 41000 barrels =7.503,000barrels at ave us$115 =$862,845.000 x12.5% =nog g.p us$107.855.000 1/2 yearly = anothier divi comming:D:D:D:D:cool::cool::cool:

No production costs, no royalties, no tax, no amortisation, staff working for love, Momoho drill for free! When did these things happen?

[spook]

SPOOK, Option at 9.5 for a buyer. Sp $1-56. at this moment. On june the 30th your new bought option has cost you to convert $1-59.5.
The sp at $1-56 has cost you $1-56 which means that the options against the sp are not really a good buy unless you trade them off before expiry date. If the sp sky rockets up then it is a cheap method of being in the money. Macdunk


Agreed MacDunk - if the Sp is $1.70 the option is worth 20c, so if I paid 9c each that's 120% profit. If I buy shares at $1.56, when they get to $1.70 my profit is 9%. I'm buying opts because the general opinion seems to favour the price going to $2 and beyond, the only unknown is when.

The real point of my question, why is Trackers waiting for a weakness to buy back in - this share is hot. It could go up another 10-15c b4 it falters

[tim23]

hey duncan - up 20c or so in 4years? Are you sure I suspect is more like 25c plus a free option at say 9c plus a dividend of 5c so thats more like 39c (not to mention if you took up the 1:10 rights issue with the free option & PRC) so don;t be so selective with your rantings!

[airedale]

My summary of Momoho is that it is not "drill and thrill" but drill and confirm.But we shall see.

Thanks, Digger, drill and confirm it is. That is even more thrilling:):)

[Unicorn]

14th aprill 11milion produced 20 th aprill 11.4million produced = 7 day,s= 400 thou barrels -SO daily out put = (unicorn and othier SCHOOL teachers tell me daily out put):cool::cool::cool:

I would go with the figures in the McDouall Stuart Report - 25 days for the last million barrels, so 40,000 per day.

Using two figures with implicit accuracy of +_50,000 barrels at each end of a total of 400,000 barrels over six days indicates between 50,000 and 83,000 barrels per day.

[Awamoa]

I have been going through my old Contract Notes for NOG and thought they may be of interest.
14/05/2002 39cents
31/03/2004 59cents
04/06/2004 64cents
06/07/2007 111 cents
plus OCs plus ODs plus 5 cent dividend.
Some suggest buying and holding isnt a good move??

[digger]

14th aprill 11milion produced 20 th aprill 11.4million produced = 7 day,s= 400 thou barrels -SO daily out put = (unicorn and othier SCHOOL teachers tell me daily out put):cool::cool::cool:


Malcolm where did you get the production to the 20th from? Seems a misprint to me.
If the jvers can crank up production i hope they didn't as even the Saudi's are wisely delaying production for the higher future prices,or so they are saying.

[tim23]

Gee Awamoa if we took 4 years from 31/3/04 the returns look even better - Duncan would that return be okay for you or will you quote us a 4 bagger!!

[zorba]

simple facts= mcdouall stuart figures are PAST TENSE NZOG FIGURES PRESENT TENSE 50,OOO TO 83000 PER DAY HARD TO BELIEVE BUT AS YOU EVEN SAY UNICORN FACT:):):):):)


Malky Palky,

You must be drinking the fruit of the red vine like I am, but nevertheless your post is completely befuddled by a certain internal inconsistency of the very worst kind, ie the idea that Tui's production rate could be increasing ..... if you can manage to verify this then you will be in wurld wide demand as a oil resevoir engineer, and you will be able to name wot ever price you care to be pleased by !!!!

Good luck with your jiggery pokery, and dont let the scoundrel McKlunk near any of your investigations --- yowel end up Brain Dead -- beware Scot impersontors wearing fake sporens and shamrocks --- aey tay will lead you astray. I bet McKlunk hasnt even been to the land of his ancestors like wot I have on the bonnie Clyde !!

Z

[digger]

I have been going through my old Contract Notes for NOG and thought they may be of interest.
14/05/2002 39cents
31/03/2004 59cents
04/06/2004 64cents
06/07/2007 111 cents
plus OCs plus ODs plus 5 cent dividend.
Some suggest buying and holding isnt a good move??

Yes Awamoa, DM supposed fact that NZO has only gone up 25cents in three years leaves out some staticts. Like i bought some at 1dollar with a free option then some more at 90 cents with a one for two free option,all of which are now worth 1.56 plus 9 cents. My maths were taught to me in Canada so i assume the maths is different in other places.Still the precentage to me looks more than the increase of 25 cents from three years ago.

[friedegg]

if you brought and held three years ago with a margin loan all that time

[duncan macgregor]

Yes Awamoa, DM supposed fact that NZO has only gone up 25cents in three years leaves out some staticts. Like i bought some at 1dollar with a free option then some more at 90 cents with a one for two free option,all of which are now worth 1.56 plus 9 cents. My maths were taught to me in Canada so i assume the maths is different in other places.Still the precentage to me looks more than the increase of 25 cents from three years ago. I know what you mean. When i took my NZ dollar to Australia it was worth 7% more than its worth today. The way its going it might a real solid gain by the time i bring it home to roost. Macdunk

[trackers]

Agreed MacDunk - if the Sp is $1.70 the option is worth 20c, so if I paid 9c each that's 120% profit. If I buy shares at $1.56, when they get to $1.70 my profit is 9%. I'm buying opts because the general opinion seems to favour the price going to $2 and beyond, the only unknown is when.

The real point of my question, why is Trackers waiting for a weakness to buy back in - this share is hot. It could go up another 10-15c b4 it falters

Could do, and probably will do - But at this level my dollars are best spent other places I think. Any general weakness, or a duster at Momoho and I'll be back in with bells on.

Disc: BOW.asx

[digger]

http://www.upstreamonline.com/market_data/?id=markets_oil

Zorba,it was just the other day you were saying how all the differet oil grades were above 100 dollars. Just now only two are still below 110. See WTI has gone for a short while above 118. This is getting a bit scarry even though we have known about PO for a long time.Even the general news is picking up little related pointers like the creaping higher cost of food .Electricity is next.I find all this speed of change a little uncomfortable,even as it is econimically very profitable. I believe it will not be too long now before a world leaders conference will be held to acknowledge the sh==it we are in.The conference i am refering to is the one we should have held in the 1970's. Scarry.

[friedegg]

Agreed MacDunk - if the Sp is $1.70 the option is worth 20c, so if I paid 9c each that's 120% profit. If I buy shares at $1.56, when they get to $1.70 my profit is 9%. I'm buying opts because the general opinion seems to favour the price going to $2 and beyond, the only unknown is when.

The real point of my question, why is Trackers waiting for a weakness to buy back in - this share is hot. It could go up another 10-15c b4 it falters
the problem you have there spook is that to make decent money you end up buying a ****load of options which you have to decide whether to sell or convert in a very short time and as like in 2005 this doesnt hit people till around 3-4 weeks before your cheque needs to be in,in 2005 we didnt have very good news leading up to the conversion whereas now theres a lot of exciting things happening,whether this will stop the stampede of sellers in both options and heads close to june30th is the gamble

[Bixbite]

FACT NZOG WEB SITE; tui page FACT UNICORN GAVE ME THE NUMBERS.
zorba u must be anothier 2nd rate school teacher:cool::cool::cool: nzog web site/tui page 14/4 11milion barrels produced///20th 11million 400,000 produced =7day,s ==50,000 to 83,000

Malcom, it’s for your reference: -

Up to 20 April 2008: Approx 11.4 million barrels produced, 11 million barrels shipped.
Up to 16 April 2008: Approx 11.15 million barrels produced, 11 million barrels shipped.
Up to 13 April 2008: Approx 11 million barrels produced, 10.7 million barrels shipped.
Up to 11 April 2008: Approx 10.9 million barrels produced, 10.7 million barrels shipped.
Up to 6 April 2008: Approx 10.7 million barrels produced, 10.4 million barrels shipped.
As at 2 April 2008: Approx 10.5 million barrels produced, 10.3 million barrels shipped.
To the end of March 2008: Approx 10.45 million barrels produced, 10.05 million barrels shipped.
As at 30 March 2008: Approx 10.4 million barrels produced, 10.05 million barrels shipped.
As at 27 March 2008: Approx 10.25 million barrels produced, 10.05 million barrels shipped.
As at 25 March 2008 : Approx 10.17 million barrels produced, 9.75 million barrels shipped.

Cheers

[Dr_Who]

Oil Hit $120!!!!! :)

[Mr Tommy]

Todays dominion has an article about Austral Pacific, which has quite a lot of debt, not much money, and some good prospects. Mentions them as a possible takeover target by NZOG.

[Bob C]

Postive piece on NZO in the Independent today; can't find it online but sounds like David Salisbury and the team expect an uptake of $150-200m from the options. Also says they already have a "strong balance sheet" and are sitting on a fair bit of cash.

Bob C

[digger]

Malcom, it’s for your reference: -

Up to 20 April 2008: Approx 11.4 million barrels produced, 11 million barrels shipped.
Up to 16 April 2008: Approx 11.15 million barrels produced, 11 million barrels shipped.
Up to 13 April 2008: Approx 11 million barrels produced, 10.7 million barrels shipped.
Up to 11 April 2008: Approx 10.9 million barrels produced, 10.7 million barrels shipped.
Up to 6 April 2008: Approx 10.7 million barrels produced, 10.4 million barrels shipped.
As at 2 April 2008: Approx 10.5 million barrels produced, 10.3 million barrels shipped.
To the end of March 2008: Approx 10.45 million barrels produced, 10.05 million barrels shipped.
As at 30 March 2008: Approx 10.4 million barrels produced, 10.05 million barrels shipped.
As at 27 March 2008: Approx 10.25 million barrels produced, 10.05 million barrels shipped.
As at 25 March 2008 : Approx 10.17 million barrels produced, 9.75 million barrels shipped.

Cheers


Someone help me with the figures i am seeing. I did cals between each days intwerval and it ranged from 40,000 a day to 60,000 a day. Over this period of 25 march to 20 april it comes to 47,308 barrels a day. This seems too much what has happened? Either the three wells that were chocked back are not longer restrained or the forth well is producing. Alternative the figures are given including water,but why that would be so i do not know.
Unicorn,oiler Waaihoek bremuda,Malcolm,Bixbite,others what do you make of this???

[Bixbite]

Digger,

Note: The level of my maths is primary school standard, what I can do is just the fundamental calculations.

The point is: -
· “As at 25 March 2008” was shown on NZOG’s website in the morning. (This record should be read as up to 24 March 2008)
· “Up to 20 April 2008” was shown on NZOG’s website on 21 April 2008 morning.

11.4M – 10.17M = 1.23M
1.23M / 27 days = 45,555 per day

The daily out put has been beyond our expectation. So I won’t criticize anything, otherwise the company will not update the production performance anymore, I'm afraid.

Cheers
Bixbite

[Chris Roberts]

Hi, to explain the Tui production numbers you are seeing on the NZOG website:
These are provided as a rough guide only, and are generally rounded to one decimal place. It is not possible to work out precise daily or even weekly production figures from them. However, over several weeks or a month they give a good guide.
It is the case that production continues to exceed all predictions, and that the expected decline has not yet occured. The Operator is currently conducting a field assessment to try and understand what the implications of the current production performance might be for recoverable reserves.
Anyone with further questions is welcome to send them to enquiries@nzog.com
Regards
Chris
NZOG

[bk]

Someone help me with the figures i am seeing. I did cals between each days intwerval and it ranged from 40,000 a day to 60,000 a day. Over this period of 25 march to 20 april it comes to 47,308 barrels a day. This seems too much what has happened? Either the three wells that were chocked back are not longer restrained or the forth well is producing. Alternative the figures are given including water,but why that would be so i do not know.
Unicorn,oiler Waaihoek bremuda,Malcolm,Bixbite,others what do you make of this???

Mmm, you could be on to it, but then again it can be just the inaccuracy of the figures.

Over the period of 25 March to 20 April it appears to be that 11.4 -10.17 = 1.23 M barrels have been produced - over 26 days indeed 47,308 barrels a day.

But they say spprox, and the figures are rounded. So that could be anywhere from 11.351-10.174 = 1.177 or 11.449 - 10.165 = 1.284

And also, 25/3-20/4, is that 26 days? Or from begin 25/3 till end 20/4 27 days, or from end 25/3 till begin 20/4 25 days?

Which gives a maximum of 1.284/25= 51,360 and a minimum of 1.177/27= 43,593

But still, the absolute minimum still is a good figure

[fruitloop]

10cents taken out big time for the options.

I am having a interesting little race with ggx and nzood as they are similar levels with a well to spud soon. Any picks on which will be higher in mid May?

[Unicorn]

Someone help me with the figures i am seeing. I did cals between each days intwerval and it ranged from 40,000 a day to 60,000 a day. Over this period of 25 march to 20 april it comes to 47,308 barrels a day. This seems too much what has happened? Either the three wells that were chocked back are not longer restrained or the forth well is producing. Alternative the figures are given including water,but why that would be so i do not know.
Unicorn,oiler Waaihoek bremuda,Malcolm,Bixbite,others what do you make of this???

These are approximate figures, that do no more than provide a reasonable guide as to what is going on.

It looks like production is still above 40,000 barrels, and production of 14 million barrels by the end of the year is quite likely.

Both of those are exceptional results - add in the extreme price of oil at present and the Tui project has delivered way above expectations. The quarterly report will be out soon - look forward to it, it will be a good one.

[The Plunger]

10cents taken out big time for the options.

I am having a interesting little race with ggx and nzood as they are similar levels with a well to spud soon. Any picks on which will be higher in mid May?


NZOOD by a considerable margin IMO. NZO is a producer, GGX a hopeful (Hold both of course !)

Pretty interesting watching that trade just before 12. 400K heads and about a Million options at the same time. Someone has confidence... or big pockets.

[fruitloop]

serious buying going on, have people finally caught up with how good nzo is, or is there some good news coming soon.

[Chalice]

NZOOD by a considerable margin IMO. NZO is a producer, GGX a hopeful (Hold both of course !)

Pretty interesting watching that trade just before 12. 400K heads and about a Million options at the same time. Someone has confidence... or big pockets.

I don't think you need any confidence to get into the heads, a no brainer, maybe a little for the options, but regardsless of confidence - big pockets would have been required given the volume.

[QOH]

Hi, to explain the Tui production numbers you are seeing on the NZOG website:
These are provided as a rough guide only, and are generally rounded to one decimal place. It is not possible to work out precise daily or even weekly production figures from them. However, over several weeks or a month they give a good guide.
It is the case that production continues to exceed all predictions, and that the expected decline has not yet occured. The Operator is currently conducting a field assessment to try and understand what the implications of the current production performance might be for recoverable reserves.
Anyone with further questions is welcome to send them to enquiries@nzog.com
Regards
Chris
NZOG
for the explanation. Good to see you reading here.

[COLIN]

Hi, to explain the Tui production numbers you are seeing on the NZOG website:
These are provided as a rough guide only, and are generally rounded to one decimal place. It is not possible to work out precise daily or even weekly production figures from them. However, over several weeks or a month they give a good guide.
It is the case that production continues to exceed all predictions, and that the expected decline has not yet occured. The Operator is currently conducting a field assessment to try and understand what the implications of the current production performance might be for recoverable reserves.
Anyone with further questions is welcome to send them to enquiries@nzog.com
Regards
Chris
NZOG

Chris R: In the absence of anyone else appearing (so far) to thank you for this information, let me do just that.
Others (except Duncan): This all sounds most encouraging - exceeds ALL expectations - not much to grizzle about, there.
Duncan: Hope your tears are not diluting your Scotch too much. But actually its not too late for you to climb back on board. We are a forgiving lot. Hop up, and enjoy the journey with us!

QOH - beat me to it, by a couple of minutes!

[BigBob]

Interesting to note that the NZOODs are trading at or very close to intrinsic value. i.e. the time value normally associated with an option is basically zero. As late as last week, the time value was priced around 6c (as the intrinsic value was zero when they were out of the money)... This may indicate that they have some catching up to do....

Has anyone done a black-scholes on what the might be worth....?

[zorba]

Hi, to explain the Tui production numbers you are seeing on the NZOG website:
These are provided as a rough guide only, and are generally rounded to one decimal place. It is not possible to work out precise daily or even weekly production figures from them. However, over several weeks or a month they give a good guide.
It is the case that production continues to exceed all predictions, and that the expected decline has not yet occured. The Operator is currently conducting a field assessment to try and understand what the implications of the current production performance might be for recoverable reserves.
Anyone with further questions is welcome to send them to enquiries@nzog.com
Regards
Chris
NZOG


Thanks Chris for the above info --- good to see you keeping an eye on this investor discussion board.


********************************************

In case some investors are not aware, the above post was made by Chris Roberts, the Public Affairs Manager for NZOG.

Check 2/3rds way down following web page:

http://www.nzog.net/corporate-directory

[digger]

Just got back from the farm to see action happening . Firstly thanks to all who responded to my "Help what is going on". TUI is sure a little winner but my thinking for NZO to go to 1-62 is that it is more than TUI. PPP has not moved and AWE seems to be currently in a trading range. So it is either KUPE pushing the SP along or someone wants a big stake in NZO preceeding a major stake in the company.Last seen this with Montana Wines about 12 years ago where i was heavily involved. The SP movement in the last two months looks very much like the early days of Montana takeover.But these are early days and i think we all have to agree that the Price and volumn suggest strongly of outside capital.

[zorba]

.
Hi Digger,

How about the broader market and brokers in particular simply re-rating NZOG based on the excellent production trends, the rising price of oil, a whole new management team including a personable and effective CEO, a full time public affairs manager, presentations at conferences and to brokers, a very welcome imputed dividend, and of course the cash pilling up and pilling up and pilling up in the the company's coffers !!

I think its a market wide re-rating for NZOG !!!!

[Rabbi]

Some speculation as to whats driving the shareprice.
I just hope it's not irrational exuberance as the price could just as easily dive the other way when the bubble bursts.
It's fair to sat there has been some well researched and thoughtful anaysis of NZO by some posters over the last week or two.
This is a difficuly stock to value, with kupe and Pike river still essentially in the pipeline, and Momoho a 50/50 punt, but at the moment it might be that NZO's cashflow has got the market excited.

[mibo]

Has anyone done a black-scholes on what the might be worth....?

Yep, puts it at 12.4c at the moment

Based on a punt of 15% volatility

[arjay]

Maybe the market's getting excited over media speculation (someone mentioned this earlier) that APX might be getting ripe? You out there Spirit?

[pietrade]

You can have it back if you want but if you go back you will find that RONTHEPOM selected that number before you entered. Macdunk

OK. Then put me in for $2.20 if you would. The way things are going, even that might be too little. Thanks.

[duncan macgregor]

[QUOTE=duncan macgregor;196090][QUOTE=duncan macgregor;195886]Competition to select NZO share price on conversion date June 30th
in the event of a tie the winner is the person with the correct score posting first
I will list you in posting order.
1,AMR 180c, 2, OILER 165c, 3,Macdunk 159c. 4,MATTYROO 158c.
5,SEAMUS 135c, 6,SERPIE 131c, 7, LIZ 120c, 8, STRAT157c.
9TRACKERS 168, 10, COLIN 170, 11,THE MACHINE 210c. 12,MALCOLM 200c.
13,SPOOK 172, 14,BIG BOB184c, 15,ZORBA 155c, 16, REMY 167c,
17 AMERICAN PSYCHO 175c 18 SHASTA 161c, 19RONTHEPOM 171c 20 PHAEDRUS 160.
21SHREWDY 169, 22 BERMUDA 149, 23 MORV 183c, 24 COALIE 188c
25 DIGGER 173c, 26 blank, 27 NITA 181c, 28 SUMMER NED 193c.
29 QOH 179c, 30 WK6332 225c 31 BALANCE $10-60 32 KS 162,
33 TOK3N 145c, 34 SHANE M 162.5c, 35CORRAN 156c, 36 MICK100 300c.
37 DSURF 154c, 38 SKEET 185c,39 MIBO 177c, 40 JAY 162c,
41 ZACMAN 187c, 42 GAMBLER33 115c, 43 ANUBUS144c, 44 BRUCETO9 164c.
45 romer 163c.46 HOOP 147c 47 RABBI 148c 48 ROTWEILLER 153c,
49 MINGEATHINAIOOS 150c,50 MANXMAN 195c, 51 MACDUFFY 146c, 52 BLOCKHEAD 198c,
53 777 226c,54 SWISSBOY 174c,55 AIRDALE166,56 CLIPS 178c,
57 PADDIE 196c,58 FOODEE 176, 59 BK152c,60 MPC182c,
61 STEVE 151,62 ONTHEMONEY 143, 63 LION 186, 64,TIM23 189c,
65 BOB C 190 66 RIF RAF 191c 67, OUT TO LUNCH 194 68 SEHNSUCHT888 192c,
69 PIETRADE 220c,70 ZAC 197c, 71,CAM 245C,

[zac]

I was given 177 and then bumped out so how about 197c? - it gets closer by the day!

[zac]

Hi Digger. The AWE 'trading range' over the recent past has been 2 steps forward and 1step back. Presently testing all time high at 373c.

[The Plunger]

Maybe the market's getting excited over media speculation (someone mentioned this earlier) that APX might be getting ripe? You out there Spirit?

It's a thought I suppose. But I've always thought APX has been running hard to stand still - most of their assets are less than desirable. Too small a target too. IMO

[CAM]

[QUOTE=duncan macgregor;196090] Any more for any more?.

Duncan
Put me down for 2.45 please.

cheers

ps...I am one of the buy and holds. Paid 30 cents for mine a few years ago.

[tim23]

NOG are starting to get mentioned in the market summary on 3 News, ASB business and the market report on Newstalk ZB especially when Tony Conolly is on (man I thought I could talk quick!). So I guess with the good story and brokers finally being forced to follow the stock (there must be plenty of clients calling their broker and asking about NOG) and the broker going mmm, we don't cover the stock, well I suspect they soon will be!

[BigBob]

Yep, puts it at 12.4c at the moment

Based on a punt of 15% volatility

hmmmm.... thanks... never worked out how to estimate the volatility thing... anyway, that still leaves stuff all for the time factor... would have thought 9'ish weeks would be worth more than 0-1c....

[BigBob]

... or someone wants a big stake in NZO preceeding a major stake in the company.Last seen this with Montana Wines about 12 years ago where i was heavily involved. The SP movement in the last two months looks very much like the early days of Montana takeover.But these are early days and i think we all have to agree that the Price and volumn suggest strongly of outside capital.

Well, it reminds me more of a company called Summit Resources... say no more...... ;o)

[Nitaa]

When are the profit takers coming in. The last little run has been nothing short of sensational.

As lonbg as OD's are anywhere above $1.60 we will soon see them at a significant discount. Many desperate od holders will or are ready to offload then as they may not or can not afford to convert the options should they stay in the money. Perssonally i took a more conservative way out and sold most of my options mid to late last year. Now if i convert i have the funds to do it.

While some of the day traders have been spooked by the drop in the dow and across world markets in Jan (MD being one of them) NZO and its holders have cherished.

I am wondering when oil proces are going to collapse and drop around $20 to around $100 per barrel. Try saying that 5 yerars ago and many people would have laughed.

anyway.. profit takers will come in we just dont know when.. at $1.62...$2.62 or somewhere in the middle

[fish]

Malcom, it’s for your reference: -

Up to 20 April 2008: Approx 11.4 million barrels produced, 11 million barrels shipped.
Up to 16 April 2008: Approx 11.15 million barrels produced, 11 million barrels shipped.
Up to 13 April 2008: Approx 11 million barrels produced, 10.7 million barrels shipped.
Up to 11 April 2008: Approx 10.9 million barrels produced, 10.7 million barrels shipped.
Up to 6 April 2008: Approx 10.7 million barrels produced, 10.4 million barrels shipped.
As at 2 April 2008: Approx 10.5 million barrels produced, 10.3 million barrels shipped.
To the end of March 2008: Approx 10.45 million barrels produced, 10.05 million barrels shipped.
As at 30 March 2008: Approx 10.4 million barrels produced, 10.05 million barrels shipped.
As at 27 March 2008: Approx 10.25 million barrels produced, 10.05 million barrels shipped.
As at 25 March 2008 : Approx 10.17 million barrels produced, 9.75 million barrels shipped.

Cheers

Bixbite-Thanks for this posting and Malcolm for yours .
Facts such as these and Tapis now 124.5 us show that production and revenue are shooting far ahead of anyones predictions .As costs of tui production are fixed net profit on a daily basis is approx double that expected 6 months ago .
Got into the market early this morning thanks to you .
I would love waihoek to produce an uptodate valuation .
My own off the cuff estimation is now close to $3 per share .

[zac]

Cannot quite see your logic Nita. If OD's are at a significant discount to the sp then surely there is an incentive to quit the head shares and buy OD's, or buy OD's to get head shares at fixed price with settlement 2 months away; perhaps there will be more selling pressure on the head shares closer to June 30.

[Rabbi]

It's a thought I suppose. But I've always thought APX has been running hard to stand still - most of their assets are less than desirable. Too small a target too. IMO

APX has been running hard to go backwards due to some bad luck and financial mismanagement. Now they are technically insolvent. I personally believe their assets have enormous potential, but they need a white Knight with big pockets to unlock the value. Whether NOG would be interested in a takeover bid is another matter, but first they would have to play hard ball with Infratil, and some Canadian and American institutions, who wouldn't be likely to give their shares away. I'm sure NOG would have run their ruler over APX by now.

[tim23]

Yes Rabbi you would have thought so; - you do wonder when the profit takers are going to come in, if/when it happens no doubt Duncan will come in with a chart/theory to explain it and tell us that he has been better off in some other stock thats a 4 bagger and better than NOG over a certain time - oh that we are brain dead??

[COLIN]

Yes Rabbi you would have thought so; - you do wonder when the profit takers are going to come in, if/when it happens no doubt Duncan will come in with a chart/theory to explain it and tell us that he has been better off in some other stock thats a 4 bagger and better than NOG over a certain time - oh that we are brain dead??

IMHO the profit takers do not represent too much of a threat. I believe that the majority of NZO holders are staunch believers, who have seen the vision afar off and have hung in there, through thick and thin - possibly lightening the load from time to time, or taking on extra, as circumstances and market conditions change, but always with their eyes on the distant horizon. (Quite poetic, aren't I!). However, now we are seeing an increasing amount of interest from fresh quarters, to bolster the buying strength - although it puzzles me somewhat when TVNZ give their market update on the 6 p.m. news and quote the day's movements in a few selected shares but always fail to mention NZO, which I would have thought has been one of the more newsworthy companies over recent times - instead they talk on and on about the NZRFU deficit, which is peanuts in relation to their cash reserves!
Anyway, I sold a few heads this morning and swapped them for the cash equivalent in OD's - that was quite rewarding, to put it mildly, but I agree that one will need to be alert as conversion date approaches and some weak holders of options will be seeking to bail as they do not have the cash to convert. The price of the heads, of course, will underpin the options price, and I do not see that weakening too much - rather the reverse as option sellers, seeking to maintain some exposure to NZO commensurate with their cash resources, will be a fresh source of buying interest in the heads

[COLIN]

Just got back from the farm to see action happening . Firstly thanks to all who responded to my "Help what is going on". TUI is sure a little winner but my thinking for NZO to go to 1-62 is that it is more than TUI. PPP has not moved and AWE seems to be currently in a trading range. So it is either KUPE pushing the SP along or someone wants a big stake in NZO preceeding a major stake in the company.Last seen this with Montana Wines about 12 years ago where i was heavily involved. The SP movement in the last two months looks very much like the early days of Montana takeover.But these are early days and i think we all have to agree that the Price and volumn suggest strongly of outside capital.

Digger, I remember the Montana bounty well. I had acquired my Corporate Investments shares via the "dollar for dollar" conversion of the convertible notes, which I had bought at a significant discount as Corporate was still out of favour following the 87 share crash. But because this investment constituted such a significant percentage of my total portfolio I kept selling off as the price climbed. If only I had held onto them all I could have made a heap but, as it was, I did quite nicely.
My portfolio nowadays is larger and more diversified, so I will continue to stick with NZO - most of which I originally bought at 30 cents but have gradually added to, and have been into and out of the options once or twice.

[blockhead]

Cannot quite see your logic Nita. If OD's are at a significant discount to the sp then surely there is an incentive to quit the head shares and buy OD's, or buy OD's to get head shares at fixed price with settlement 2 months away; perhaps there will be more selling pressure on the head shares closer to June 30.

Exactly Zac, sell all your heads and buy the same number of od's, put the money in the bank and see how things look come 30th June, if the bum falls out of NOG and it goes below $1.50 then repurchase at that price, if they go to $3.00 you can buy them back at $1.50 (plus option cost) on 30th June. Hard to be a looser on that basis !

[CAM]

Exactly Zac, sell all your heads and buy the same number of od's, put the money in the bank and see how things look come 30th June, if the bum falls out of NOG and it goes below $1.50 then repurchase at that price, if they go to $3.00 you can buy them back at $1.50 (plus option cost) on 30th June. Hard to be a looser on that basis !

But if it goes below $1.50 won't the options you bought be worthless?? so you need to factor that cost in

[Sehnsucht888]

Who says profit takers aren't already taking advantage. 1.2 million shares through today, and up 6c on the head shares. 4 million opitions, and up 30%. Many are taking their profits when you consider what used to be a daily volume. It is just that there are plenty of interested parties keen to also take on a short term spec trade, or ....

If I had been one of the buyers of the 300,000 odd (guess) options on an average a couple weeks ago at 6c, I'd be happy for the almost 100% sell today.

But the high volumes going throuigh these days shows serious interest, serious cash, or serious balls...

[Nitaa]

One thing i will not attempt to do is to think i can outsmart the market. Never have and never will. The best i beleive i can do is buy stocks on fundamentals (oh i love that word).

moving on.. with regards to my comment on the od's is...i will nbot be surprised id the optionbbs are at a discount up to 3 or even 4 cents if the sp increases. As there is still a time factor albeit minute to have a premium in in the ods is quite the norm.

The bigger investors will also be sitting on the sideline to scoop up any signigicant dosicounted options. So if they are in discount ists only for a relatively short time frame. Dont know if i am making sense but what the heck..thats my 2 cents worth

[COLIN]

One thing i will not attempt to do is to think i can outsmart the market. Never have and never will. The best i beleive i can do is buy stocks on fundamentals (oh i love that word).

moving on.. with regards to my comment on the od's is...i will nbot be surprised id the optionbbs are at a discount up to 3 or even 4 cents if the sp increases. As there is still a time factor albeit minute to have a premium in in the ods is quite the norm.

The bigger investors will also be sitting on the sideline to scoop up any signigicant dosicounted options. So if they are in discount ists only for a relatively short time frame. Dont know if i am making sense but what the heck..thats my 2 cents worth

A bit garbled, but we get the drift.

[the machine]

as regards momoho, does anyone have any ideas how a discovery would be treated tax wise as regards the incentive available until end of 2009? for a discounted tax / royality.

am hoping that as kupe south 4 & 5 were both deemed uncommercial, it does not impact on how a discovery at momomho would fare. momomho was only identified in last few years/

M

[digger]

Digger, I remember the Montana bounty well. I had acquired my Corporate Investments shares via the "dollar for dollar" conversion of the convertible notes, which I had bought at a significant discount as Corporate was still out of favour following the 87 share crash. But because this investment constituted such a significant percentage of my total portfolio I kept selling off as the price climbed. If only I had held onto them all I could have made a heap but, as it was, I did quite nicely.
My portfolio nowadays is larger and more diversified, so I will continue to stick with NZO - most of which I originally bought at 30 cents but have gradually added to, and have been into and out of the options once or twice.

I also got a lot of my Montana from Corporate investments path but a lot from as low as 17 cents,which were all sold at takeout of 4-80. Colin i hope for your sake you stop this selling as the stock climbs.You sell trending down stocks never trending up ones.My biggest share investment weakness that is responsible for most loss is an inability to take a early lose. Genesis Rearch is my biggest all time lose.Bought at 4-20 and eventually sold half to Wrightson at 1-15 and the other half at about 30 cents.What a dog i was.Genesis Research was a personal growth thing for me as it took me all too many years to realise that highly intelligent book worms generally have little clues about the business world. A lesson learned.

[duncan macgregor]

Competition to select NZO share price on conversion date June 30th
in the event of a tie the winner is the person with the correct score posting first
I will list you in posting order.
1,AMR 180c, 2, OILER 165c, 3,Macdunk 159c. 4,MATTYROO 158c.
5,SEAMUS 135c, 6,SERPIE 131c, 7, LIZ 120c, 8, STRAT157c.
9TRACKERS 168, 10, COLIN 170, 11,THE MACHINE 210c. 12,MALCOLM 200c.
13,SPOOK 172, 14,BIG BOB184c, 15,ZORBA 155c, 16, REMY 167c,
17 AMERICAN PSYCHO 175c 18 SHASTA 161c, 19RONTHEPOM 171c 20 PHAEDRUS 160.
21SHREWDY 169, 22 BERMUDA 149, 23 MORV 183c, 24 COALIE 188c
25 DIGGER 173c, 26 blank, 27 NITA 181c, 28 SUMMER NED 193c.
29 QOH 179c, 30 WK6332 225c 31 BALANCE $10-60 32 KS 162,
33 TOK3N 145c, 34 SHANE M 162.5c, 35CORRAN 156c, 36 MICK100 300c.
37 DSURF 154c, 38 SKEET 185c,39 MIBO 177c, 40 JAY 162c,
41 ZACMAN 187c, 42 GAMBLER33 115c, 43 ANUBUS144c, 44 BRUCETO9 164c.
45 romer 163c.46 HOOP 147c 47 RABBI 148c 48 ROTWEILLER 153c,
49 MINGEATHINAIOOS 150c,50 MANXMAN 195c, 51 MACDUFFY 146c, 52 BLOCKHEAD 198c,
53 777 226c,54 SWISSBOY 174c,55 AIRDALE166,56 CLIPS 178c,
57 PADDIE 196c,58 FOODEE 176, 59 BK152c,60 MPC182c,
61 STEVE 151,62 ONTHEMONEY 143, 63 LION 186, 64,TIM23 189c,
65 BOB C 190 66 RIF RAF 191c 67, OUT TO LUNCH 194 68 SEHNSUCHT888 192c,
69 PIETRADE 220c,70 ZAC 197c, 71,CAM 245C,72, CHALICE 214c,

[digger]

[QUOTE=the machine;196420]as regards momoho, does anyone have any ideas how a discovery would be treated tax wise as regards the incentive available until end of 2009? for a discounted tax / royality.

am hoping that as kupe south 4 & 5 were both deemed uncommercial, it does not impact on how a discovery at momomho would fare. momomho was only identified in last few years/

M[/QUOTE Machine your post as two parts The first one about the TAX is something i also want to know.
The second about Momoho is technically all correct but not up to speed.Kupe4@5 were uneconomic only in respect that oil at that time was about 12 to 17 dollars.The upcoming drill was identified by seismic recently and from what i understand it is hopeful that 4@5 and Momoho are all the same field. The drill bit will answer that one.We wait with bated breath.

[digger]

[QUOTE=duncan macgregor;196325][QUOTE=duncan macgregor;196090] Plenty of room at the top and the bottom to work out an entry if you are still not in. Macdunk

DM you never answered my question about a cut off date. Clearly the longer this runs the easier to estimate the likely finish price.Now anyone under 1-50 does not have a show.Seems to be favouring the higher numbers,but if my 1-73 is far too low am happy to face my conserative selection and book the profit.

[bermuda]

[QUOTE=the machine;196420]as regards momoho, does anyone have any ideas how a discovery would be treated tax wise as regards the incentive available until end of 2009? for a discounted tax / royality.

am hoping that as kupe south 4 & 5 were both deemed uncommercial, it does not impact on how a discovery at momomho would fare. momomho was only identified in last few years/

M[/QUOTE Machine your post as two parts The first one about the TAX is something i also want to know.
The second about Momoho is technically all correct but not up to speed.Kupe4@5 were uneconomic only in respect that oil at that time was about 12 to 17 dollars.The upcoming drill was identified by seismic recently and from what i understand it is hopeful that 4@5 and Momoho are all the same field. The drill bit will answer that one.We wait with bated breath.

Digger,
Kupe 4 and 5 are in the vicinity of Kupe with Momoho in the middle.If Momoho is successful then I would predict they will all be
coupled up together to really give the Kupe project a big added boost. Kupe 4 and Kupe 5 are different though. One was an oil field , the other a gas field. Perhaps Momoho will be a gas/condensate field?

This is a big drill for NZO.

[zac]

I take your point Cam but remember in the scenario you present (whereby the head shares fall below $1.50 before june 30) that by selling the head shares now you have already realized a profit equivalent to the value + a few cents of the options and then later you can choose to exercise the options, or buy head shares for <$1.50. A neat way to derisk the price-time dilemma I would have thought.

[duncan macgregor]

[QUOTE=duncan macgregor;196434][QUOTE=duncan macgregor;196325]

DM you never answered my question about a cut off date. Clearly the longer this runs the easier to estimate the likely finish price.Now anyone under 1-50 does not have a show.Seems to be favouring the higher numbers,but if my 1-73 is far too low am happy to face my conserative selection and book the profit. DIGGER, One simple rule surely nothing is simpler to work out than that. First in gets the number June the 30th is when it finishes with the last sell price being the winning number. The longer you wait the easier it gets with a lesser chance of getting the number. Its a good little lesson on stop and nut it out before you sign up to anything. Macdunk

[zac]

Right now the NZOD price is 13c and the NZO Ord is 162c. This may be an indication that head shares are being sold to purchase OD's. Or a premium is being paid for the OD's to gain a 2 month cost of money advantage. Or it is pure speculation - take your pick.

[Nitaa]

[QUOTE=digger;196439][QUOTE=duncan macgregor;196434] DIGGER, One simple rule surely nothing is simpler to work out than that. First in gets the number June the 30th is when it finishes with the last sell price being the winning number. The longer you wait the easier it gets with a lesser chance of getting the number. Its a good little lesson on stop and nut it out before you sign up to anything. MacdunkDunkin... can one change their price or do they only get one shot at it? If only one shot then the winner has a better chance of holding off rather than being too quick to jump the gun.

[OutToLunch]

How about a cutoff date for guesses, say April 30? Levels the playing field for all. (At this rate it looks like my guess of 194 might be on the low side, but that's a nice problem to have). :)

[The Plunger]

Right now the NZOD price is 13c and the NZO Ord is 162c. This may be an indication that head shares are being sold to purchase OD's. Or a premium is being paid for the OD's to gain a 2 month cost of money advantage. Or it is pure speculation - take your pick.

You're onto it Zac. Every time options come up for expiry you seem the same arguments back and forth about what people are supposedly doing. "Cost of Money" is the key. Sell the heads, buy the equivalent (dollar value) number of options to get back into the heads in 60 days time. Meanwhile you can collect interest or in my case reduce interest paid.... This all assumes you're confident the share price will stay stable or rise. Which on this thread most of us are !!

[duncan macgregor]

[QUOTE=duncan macgregor;196464][QUOTE=digger;196439]Dunkin... can one change their price or do they only get one shot at it? If only one shot then the winner has a better chance of holding off rather than being too quick to jump the gun. You only have one shot at it. However i allowed people who inadvertinately had selected an already selected number to change. The longer you wait the easier it gets but harder to find a free number. Its up to you lot to play the rules to your advantage i wont be changing any selections from now on so dont double up on an already selected number.Macdunk

[JBmurc]

[QUOTE=duncan macgregor;196325][QUOTE=duncan macgregor;196090] Plenty of room at the top and the bottom to work out an entry if you are still not in. Macdunk

JBMurc 2.01

[Chalice]

[QUOTE=duncan macgregor;196325][QUOTE=duncan macgregor;196090] Plenty of room at the top and the bottom to work out an entry if you are still not in. Macdunk

Put me down for $2.14 thanks Duncan.
Chalice

[bk]

I see that we are now in the "Completion phase of the three development wells" - anyone any idea how long this is going to take? Does it mean that Momoho drilling might not finish in time to push the share price over $2 come 30/6?

Most punters are now projecting further increases; I need to look under my mattress to see if I can find enough dough to convert those 75K options, or else decide what is the optimum time to pass the parcel. decisions decision . . . . it's a hard life

Happy to have been a long term "buy and hold"

[duncan macgregor]

[QUOTE=duncan macgregor;196434]Competition to select NZO share price on conversion date June 30th
in the event of a tie the winner is the person with the correct score posting first
I will list you in posting order.
1,AMR 180c, 2, OILER 165c, 3,Macdunk 159c. 4,MATTYROO 158c.
5,SEAMUS 135c, 6,SERPIE 131c, 7, LIZ 120c, 8, STRAT157c.
9TRACKERS 168, 10, COLIN 170, 11,THE MACHINE 210c. 12,MALCOLM 200c.
13,SPOOK 172, 14,BIG BOB184c, 15,ZORBA 155c, 16, REMY 167c,
17 AMERICAN PSYCHO 175c 18 SHASTA 161c, 19RONTHEPOM 171c 20 PHAEDRUS 160.
21SHREWDY 169, 22 BERMUDA 149, 23 MORV 183c, 24 COALIE 188c
25 DIGGER 173c, 26 blank, 27 NITA 181c, 28 SUMMER NED 193c.
29 QOH 179c, 30 WK6332 225c 31 BALANCE $10-60 32 KS 162,
33 TOK3N 145c, 34 SHANE M 162.5c, 35CORRAN 156c, 36 MICK100 300c.
37 DSURF 154c, 38 SKEET 185c,39 MIBO 177c, 40 JAY 162c,
41 ZACMAN 187c, 42 GAMBLER33 115c, 43 ANUBUS144c, 44 BRUCETO9 164c.
45 romer 163c.46 HOOP 147c 47 RABBI 148c 48 ROTWEILLER 153c,
49 MINGEATHINAIOOS 150c,50 MANXMAN 195c, 51 MACDUFFY 146c, 52 BLOCKHEAD 198c,
53 777 226c,54 SWISSBOY 174c,55 AIRDALE166,56 CLIPS 178c,
57 PADDIE 196c,58 FOODEE 176, 59 BK152c,60 MPC182c,
61 STEVE 151,62 ONTHEMONEY 143, 63 LION 186, 64,TIM23 189c,
65 BOB C 190 66 RIF RAF 191c 67, OUT TO LUNCH 194 68 SEHNSUCHT888 192c,
69 PIETRADE 220c,70 ZAC 197c, 71,CAM 245C,72, CHALICE 214c,

[777]

NZO
24/04/2008
MINE

REL: 1128 HRS New Zealand Oil and Gas Limited

MINE: NZO: Kupe Development Wells Disclosure Notice

New Zealand Oil & Gas Ltd (NZOG) advises that as of 14:00 hours on 23 April,
the 6-1/8 inch section of Kupe South 7 Sidetrack 1 (KS-7 ST1) has been
evaluated with wire-line logs and the 5 inch liner successfully set and
cemented. This now completes the Drilling phase of the Kupe campaign.

The Completion phase of the three development wells has been initiated
starting with KS-7 ST1 where the completion tubing and down-hole monitoring
equipment will now be installed before moving to Kupe South 8 (KS-8).

Drilling of the three development wells began at 22:40 hrs on 19 December
2007. All three wells have reached their target depths.

Well 22 inch 17 inch 12-1/4 inch 8-1/2 inch 6-1/8 inch
KS-6 560m 2,000m 2,895m 3,385m
KS-7 566m 2,000m 3,116m 3,454m
KS-7 ST1 - - - - 3,503m
KS-8 568m 2,184m 3,429m 3,834m
*Depths are cumulative and show total well depth.

The Kupe Project is located within permit PML38146 in the offshore Taranaki
Basin, New Zealand, approximately 30km off the coast. The development will
comprise production wells tied into an unmanned offshore platform, a 30 km
pipeline to shore, and an onshore processing station. The Kupe Project is
expected to be completed by mid-2009 and produce approximately 254 petajoules
of natural gas, 1.1 million tonnes of LPG and 14.7 million barrels of light
oil (condensate).

[fruitloop]

any idea on how long to finish the completion tubing and down-hole monitoring?

[spook]

any idea on how long to finish the completion tubing and down-hole monitoring?


With my pick of $1.72 I now have a dilemna - Do I want a free $100 bottle of bubbles at $1.72 or if it goes to $2+ do I buy a case out of the profits? :D
Great minds have gone crazy over these simple conundrums. McD I judge your competition a resounding success going by the number of posts on this!!!

[duncan macgregor]

[QUOTE=spook;196499]With my pick of $1.72 I now have a dilemna - Do I want a free $100 bottle of bubbles at $1.72 or if it goes to $2+ do I buy a case out of the profits? :D
Great minds have gone crazy over these simple conundrums. McD I judge your competition a resounding success going by the number of posts on this!!![/QUOTE SPOOKS, It sure beats yapping about peak bloody oil, or gleeFOOLY talking about how great it is that oil is trending up wrecking our standard of living just to make a few bucks in the market. Macdunk

[fish]

[QUOTE=777;196496]NZO
24/04/2008
MINE

REL: 1128 HRS New Zealand Oil and Gas Limited

MINE: NZO: Kupe Development Wells Disclosure Notice

New Zealand Oil & Gas Ltd (NZOG) advises that as of 14:00 hours on 23 April,
the 6-1/8 inch section of Kupe South 7 Sidetrack 1 (KS-7 ST1) has been
evaluated with wire-line logs and the 5 inch liner successfully set and
cemented. This now completes the Drilling phase of the Kupe campaign.

Tapis is now over $125
Tui is obviously much bigger than expected-
Kupe and prc doing well and look set to produce at a time of much higher prices than previously dreamed of .
Lots of other oppurtunities and we can now see that nzo management have been very wise to employ so many oil geologists .
Dont understand why the sp is not over $2-possibly because the company has not officially released the information that chris did yesterday .
?how do we know he is for real and not a speculator.

[Mick100]

[ or gleeFOOLY talking about how great it is that oil is trending up wrecking our standard of living just to make a few bucks in the market. Macdunk

the rising price of oil is certainly not doing my standard of living any harm
- I don't think any of the other noggers are being hurt by high oil prices either:) Personally, I use very little fuel myself - I bike. :D

[peterfindlay]

This is what I see happening:

Tui Joint Venture
An upwards revision of the expected production to 30 June 08 from 13 -14 mmbbl, with actual production of 14.2 – 14.8 mmbbl depending on whether or not there is loss of production due to a shutdown or scheduled for maintenance etc. What lends support for this view is the most recent production for a 1 month period from 21 March – 20 April 08 of approximately 1.4 mmbbl, with 71 days of potential production to 30 June 2008.

Production for the year ended 30 June 2009 revised upwards to say 10 mmbbl. At this level, 2009 earnings ought to no longer be seen as being a non event or the “blemish” in future earnings.

Reserves revised to 50 - 60 mmbbl, but the JV may elect to take a conservative approach and recognise a lower amount at this time.

My view is that the conservative approach to reserve estimates adopted these days really means that these are likely to have a 90% probability rather than the suggested 50%.

Kupe
If you look at NZOG’s website that shows the drilling locations of KS 6, KS 7, KS8 (i.e. http://www.nzog.net/kupe/kupedevelopmentwells), along with the rest of the drilling that has occurred over recent years, you will notice that KS8 is located outside the central field. In effect, my assertion is that the field is already larger than envisaged at the FID stage, and the JV is sitting on an upgrade to the Kupe reserves that were likely to be already extremely conservative.

As the initial approach of NZOG was not to hedge the capital cost relating to Kupe, and as most of the non $NZ costs have been incurred, NZOG’s $NZ cost relating to Kupe is likely to be less than expected. A brave call by NZOG management, and a big tick for getting it right.

Any upwards cost revisions are minor. If they were material they would have been released.

NZOG & shareholder pressure for the Kupe JV to provide an updated reserve estimate of the Kupe field. Origin is likely to be very reluctant to release updated information relating to Kupe reserves until they have to. This may be in part due to the bad experience that arose from Origin involvement in the Bass Strait when they had an operator role and took their eye off the ball.

Momoho presents very limited downside to NZOG, as at less than $10 million, this only represents approx 3 - 4 cents share. However, a gas and/or condensate discovery is likely to further prove a very significant field, and ought to allow very cost efficient development.

A discovery at Momoho ought to allow NZOG to receive the “spot” price for additional gas and liquids. The gas price should exceed the Genesis price plus any future price adjustments received under the terms of Genesis supply contract.

Pike River
What a stellar investment this ought to turn out to be. First coal will be a major milestone, and should result in a lift in the SP. I would like to see NZOG retain its involvement in PRC as a cornerstone shareholder, and through their support, perhaps lifting its holding to 50.01%, and enable PRC to grow this enterprise by becoming a much more significant coking coal producer.

Other - Pre 30 June
The release of a very positive quarterly activities report.

A firming Pike River Coal share price that ought to reach $1.50 by 30 June 2008.

Broker valuations for both NZOG and Pike River Coal continuing their upward trend.

Confirmation of a much more extensive drilling campaign.

Release of third quarter and full year earnings guidance, at higher levels than market expectations. The April 2008 McDouall Stuart valuation is likely to contain the most accurate revenue number, but even this will prove to be conservative.

At the moment, and for the foreseeable future, cash is king. NZOG has cash, with plenty more to come. As a result of the cash resource, and the technical team now on board, there is likely to be plenty of interest in having NZOG as a partner. Perhaps they are seen as having the little bit of the midas touch. Announcements relating to some farm-in deals and the odd small acquisition are likely before 30 June 2008.

Exchange rates trending in favour of NZOG.

A budget that indirectly supports investment in equities – through the announcement of lower personal taxes, the upward movement of thresholds, and through the possible tweaking of Kiwi saver.

Other – Post 30 June 2008
Successful conversion of the options.

Lower interest rates from the latter part of the 2nd quarter/early 4th quarter that underpins investment in equities.

Later in the year, if a National government is elected, they are likely to have a more friendly energy policy relating to the use of gas for electricity generation, and a less punitive carbon policy.

Further NZOG share purchases by index funds as NZOG moves up the rankings towards the NZX 20.

Pike River’s prospects and share price continuing to be re-rated upwards.

NZOG share price continuing to trend upwards.

[skeet]

This is what I see happening:

Tui Joint Venture
An upwards revision of the expe........

..........NZOG share price continuing to trend upwards.


Agreed with what you see happening.

Little movement so far today with the Sp, not to surprised though with what has happened over the last few days!

[COLIN]

[/B]


Peter: An excellent, well-considered post, written in clear English (unlike many on this forum) and well worth digesting. It does paint a rosy picture and, although I guess we have to acknowledge that there are also significant risks still associated with the development of Kupe and Pike, the present share price seems to have plenty of upside potential.
On the question of NZO continued involvement in Pike, they have stated of course that that would not tally with their strategic direction, i.e. to focus on being an oil and gas developer and producer. I am sure they will not sell, however, until they reach their assessed optimal time for that to take place, but I cannot see them reverting to taking a larger interest.

[Chris Roberts]

Quote:
Dont understand why the sp is not over $2-possibly because the company has not officially released the information that chris did yesterday .
?how do we know he is for real and not a speculator. .


To be absolutely clear, the information I provided (regarding a field reassessment) had already been made public in market statements released on the 19 March. Any material information is always released to the market first.

[sideline]

Two ways to dispose of PRC interest eventually:

- if NZO needs the capital for further JV etc: sell PRC shares.

- if NZO does not need the capital and wants to return some to shareholders: spin PRC shares out
to shareholders. After NZOOD conversion the ratio should be about 1 PRC share out of every 5 NZO

[fish]

Quote:
Dont understand why the sp is not over $2-possibly because the company has not officially released the information that chris did yesterday .
?how do we know he is for real and not a speculator. .


To be absolutely clear, the information I provided (regarding a field reassessment) had already been made public in market statements released on the 19 March. Any material information is always released to the market first.

Thanks for replying Chris . You may have noticed the share price jumped upwards immediately after your posting . I hope you keep on posting .We all want as much information as possible and the recent increase in shipments of oil did need confirming and explaining ,

Whenever I post information the sp seems to drop.
Tapis has just hit a new record of 125.63 .

[Sumnerned]

Surely the PRC shares would be more valuable as a block than distributed amongst 1000s of shareholders. I imagine a Chinese steelmaker or coal producer would pay a huge premium for such a block, provided they could be assured of a share of the output.

[trackers]

Didn't think I'd see any resistance this close to the Quarterly! But a bit of a sell off was to be expected I guess.... I'm back in /wave

[sideline]

Surely the PRC shares would be more valuable as a block than distributed amongst 1000s of shareholders. I imagine a Chinese steelmaker or coal producer would pay a huge premium for such a block, provided they could be assured of a share of the output.

I agree, however if you then still want to distribute the proceeds to shareholders it would probably be as a
dividend requiring either imputation credits or tax payment. I assume a spin-out could be tax free, because
we already own those shares through NZO. I am not a tax expert though.

Read somewhere that the Chinese and Indians are fiercely competing for resources. Don't know whether
they could own and run a company together.....

[fish]

Didn't think I'd see any resistance this close to the Quarterly! But a bit of a sell off was to be expected I guess.... I'm back in /wave

I have been buying more options as i feel they should be several cents ahead of the heads

Short-term markets can be so unpredictable yet exciting when you take advantage of its volatility and -tapis is hitting new all time highs-now 125.87 and looking as if it will be 126 today .Nz dollar has also fallen 0.5 us cents today

[skeet]

Sold earlier today, nice profit from 4.7c and I remember when a couple of people questioned me buying oppies a month back! ;)

[blockhead]

But if it goes below $1.50 won't the options you bought be worthless?? so you need to factor that cost in

Yes they would be worthless Cam but with heads less than $1.50 the difference is picked up there, ie instead of converting the od's to heads @ $1.50 it would be wiser to buy heads at the sub $1.50 price on the market

[Unicorn]

This is what I see happening:


I think you have summed things up quite well. However ...

1. Any figures that are announced will probably continue to very conservative - so 14M barrels will only be mentioned when it is certain to be reached, next year's target will be no more than 8M barrels in the near term, and reserves will not go above 50M barrels. All of these are fantastic figures for a project expected to produce 27.9M barrels (8.4M in first 12 months) at time of first oil.

2. The PRC holding is very unlikely to be increased - more likely to be sold off in 1 or 2 years, with an enormous profit realised. Not core business, and a somewhat chequered past that is best left behind.

3. Kupe costs will probably increase. It is a very big project and many of the resources involved have faced major increases over the last couple of years. The unexpectedly high Kiwi will help a lot, but not enough to cover the cost increases.

4. There is one big issue you did not cover - what happens with the growth strategy? Before long there might be as much as $300M in cash the bank. Could be some extremely interesting developments in the next 12 months!

In my view there is still some way to go until the share price reflects current value, and plenty of potential for further value to be added beyond that.

[COLIN]

Sold earlier today, nice profit from 4.7c and I remember when a couple of people questioned me buying oppies a month back! ;)

Would be interested in your reasons for selling at this stage? Presumably the funds will be placed in something with better prospects - please share with us what that is.

Remember the old adage - CUT YOUR LOSSES, BUT LET PROFITS RUN.

[fish]

Remember the old adage - CUT YOUR LOSSES, BUT LET PROFITS RUN.[/QUOTE]

Very true colin-anyone selling now for a quick buck is likely to regret it .
Tapis is now up $2 for the day so far--$125.96 and the nz dollar looks like falling further .
Tui is producing phenomenally and will take advantage of these record prices.
PRC made further big gains today
Its going to be some time before the dinosaur institutions realise where this share is heading.

[digger]

Surely the PRC shares would be more valuable as a block than distributed amongst 1000s of shareholders. I imagine a Chinese steelmaker or coal producer would pay a huge premium for such a block, provided they could be assured of a share of the output.
I gave my thoughts on this question under the PIKE thread.

[digger]

AWE has been in a trading halt all day,any theories?

[AMR]

AWE has been in a trading halt all day,any theories?

They're taking out ARQ.

[fish]

Tapis now over 126-a new record

[COLIN]

I also got a lot of my Montana from Corporate investments path but a lot from as low as 17 cents,which were all sold at takeout of 4-80. Colin i hope for your sake you stop this selling as the stock climbs.You sell trending down stocks never trending up ones.My biggest share investment weakness that is responsible for most loss is an inability to take a early lose. Genesis Rearch is my biggest all time lose.Bought at 4-20 and eventually sold half to Wrightson at 1-15 and the other half at about 30 cents.What a dog i was.Genesis Research was a personal growth thing for me as it took me all too many years to realise that highly intelligent book worms generally have little clues about the business world. A lesson learned.

Digger, I think that the passing years have taught similar lessons us both. Emblazoned in my mental processes now are these important words - BUY INTO STRENGTH, SELL INTO WEAKNESS. Yes, I bought into Genesis Research at about that level, too, and rode them all the way down - still hold those shares, now relatively worthless, and can't be bothered even getting round to selling them. Consequently I still get their annual reports and its the same old stuff - cash continuing to be burnt but "one day we're going to make this wonderful discovery!!!!!!!!!!" I think the only consolation we can take is that we did our bit for our country by helping to retain some science boffins in NZ! (Assuming we think that is a good thing). But now whenever I see "bio" or "tech" associated with an investment prospect I steer well clear.

[the machine]

[QUOTE=peterfindlay;196514]This is what I see happening:

Kupe
If you look at NZOG’s website that shows the drilling locations of KS 6, KS 7, KS8 (i.e. http://www.nzog.net/kupe/kupedevelopmentwells), along with the rest of the drilling that has occurred over recent years, you will notice that KS8 is located outside the central field. In effect, my assertion is that the field is already larger than envisaged at the FID stage, and the JV is sitting on an upgrade to the Kupe reserves that were likely to be already extremely conservative.



read somewhere this year that K8 being drilled outside the central area should increase the reserves - maybe after they test it, inturn further studies therewill be a reserve upgrade due to K8 - this could take 6 months or more.

We know it has elevated gas readings, now its just needing more definition.

one would expect the jv would not have drilled it without very high expectations

M

[duncan macgregor]

[QUOTE=duncan macgregor;196495][QUOTE=duncan macgregor;196434]Competition to select NZO share price on conversion date June 30th
in the event of a tie the winner is the person with the correct score posting first
I will list you in posting order.
1,AMR 180c, 2, OILER 165c, 3,Macdunk 159c. 4,MATTYROO 158c.
5,SEAMUS 135c, 6,SERPIE 131c, 7, LIZ 120c, 8, STRAT157c.
9TRACKERS 168, 10, COLIN 170, 11,THE MACHINE 210c. 12,MALCOLM 200c.
13,SPOOK 172, 14,BIG BOB184c, 15,ZORBA 155c, 16, REMY 167c,
17 AMERICAN PSYCHO 175c 18 SHASTA 161c, 19RONTHEPOM 171c 20 PHAEDRUS 160.
21SHREWDY 169, 22 BERMUDA 149, 23 MORV 183c, 24 COALIE 188c
25 DIGGER 173c, 26 blank, 27 NITA 181c, 28 SUMMER NED 193c.
29 QOH 179c, 30 WK6332 225c 31 BALANCE $10-60 32 KS 162,
33 TOK3N 145c, 34 SHANE M 162.5c, 35CORRAN 156c, 36 MICK100 300c.
37 DSURF 154c, 38 SKEET 185c,39 MIBO 177c, 40 JAY 162c,
41 ZACMAN 187c, 42 GAMBLER33 115c, 43 ANUBUS144c, 44 BRUCETO9 164c.
45 romer 163c.46 HOOP 147c 47 RABBI 148c 48 ROTWEILLER 153c,
49 MINGEATHINAIOOS 150c,50 MANXMAN 195c, 51 MACDUFFY 146c, 52 BLOCKHEAD 198c,
53 777 226c,54 SWISSBOY 174c,55 AIRDALE166,56 CLIPS 178c,
57 PADDIE 196c,58 FOODEE 176, 59 BK152c,60 MPC182c,
61 STEVE 151,62 ONTHEMONEY 143, 63 LION 186, 64,TIM23 189c,
65 BOB C 190 66 RIF RAF 191c 67, OUT TO LUNCH 194 68 SEHNSUCHT888 192c,
69 PIETRADE 220c,70 ZAC 197c, 71,CAM 245C,72, CHALICE 214c,

[Chippie]

Hey guys
2 Questions
1. Can anyone recommend any good books or CD ROMs to educate me on Charts and TA? I have done okay buying on fundamentals for years but it time I invested in educating myself on TA.

2. What is the TA analysis on what is going on with NZO, is there any pattern emerging or is it just a big buyer with deep pockets making a run on NZO?

Any comments would be appreciated.

[Ripping]

Hey guys
2 Questions
1. Can anyone recommend any good books or CD ROMs to educate me on Charts and TA?

Any comments would be appreciated.

Any book by Darryl Guppy is worth a read. He's long time Australian TA trader who now has a regular spot on CNBC.

[zorba]

[QUOTE=peterfindlay;196514]This is what I see happening:

Kupe
If you look at NZOG’s website that shows the drilling locations of KS 6, KS 7, KS8 (i.e. http://www.nzog.net/kupe/kupedevelopmentwells), along with the rest of the drilling that has occurred over recent years, you will notice that KS8 is located outside the central field. In effect, my assertion is that the field is already larger than envisaged at the FID stage, and the JV is sitting on an upgrade to the Kupe reserves that were likely to be already extremely conservative.



read somewhere this year that K8 being drilled outside the central area should increase the reserves - maybe after they test it, inturn further studies therewill be a reserve upgrade due to K8 - this could take 6 months or more.

We know it has elevated gas readings, now its just needing more definition.

one would expect the jv would not have drilled it without very high expectations

M


Machine,

Note that in the Kupe map that KS8 is actually inside the Central Field Area. The extent of the CFA is marked on the map by the dashed black lines.

Z

[zac]

With high oil prices and undervalued Companies the Oil industry is set for a shake up (much the same as has been ocurring in the mining industry). Cash rich Companies will look to aquire producing assets and future prospects. AWE has gobbled up ARQ., has a good cashflow, solid balance sheet and zero debt. They are looking for more aquisitions and NZO has to be a possibility, probably after the options expire and the share register is more exposed. PRC could be sold off as non-core to recoup cost. NZO may even welcome a merger rather then be targetted by one of the big boys.

[bermuda]

Upside down,November 2007
Kupe hasnt yet appeared on Broker's horizons. I was at a dinner yesterday with a broker who made the most desparaging remarks about NZO I was actually embarrassed as my wife was listening in.I wont go into detail but the only way to quieten him was to remind him that he said the same about Tui 3 years ago... At least I got a blush.

This has got to stop. People are getting seriously mis informed.

Kupe has been designed to take THREE times the current known reserves.

But who wants to listen?

A huge buy at these sort of prices.

Thought I would post this again for a laugh. They were $1.00 then. If only he had told his clients.

[spook]

Hey guys
2 Questions
1. Can anyone recommend any good books or CD ROMs to educate me on Charts and TA? I have done okay buying on fundamentals for years but it time I invested in educating myself on TA.

2. What is the TA analysis on what is going on with NZO, is there any pattern emerging or is it just a big buyer with deep pockets making a run on NZO?

Any comments would be appreciated.


I've been using mostly fundamentals, but find TA a little bit useful sometimes.
I bought into NZO on fundamentals, but I will keep an eye on the TA as that will probably determine my exit point.

You come across TA disciples with very strong views but personally I find mixing strategies to be most effective for myself. TA traders have a perverse fascination with charts & graphs, but seem to ignore Real World events such as who's running a company and there popularity in the market.

(Expect a post from McD very soon:) )

[AMR]

Technical analysis of the financial markets (John Murphy) is good. There's a lot of voodoo mixed in with real technical analysis though, stay away from the $4000 Gann courses.

[the machine]

[QUOTE=the machine;196614]


Machine,

Note that in the Kupe map that KS8 is actually inside the Central Field Area. The extent of the CFA is marked on the map by the dashed black lines.

Z


but we recall the article implied that success at KS8 would add to reserves.

might have been posted on this thread say 6 months back

M

[fish]

of bought some barrels.... now back up to US$119 00 BARREL today26/04/08 the figures look even better 6 month,s later NZ$150(NICE ROUND FIGURE) revenue/cashflow of NZ$6,562,500 PERWEEK and every week the cheques keep rolling in:D:D

tapis=$125 us
78cents us =$1 kiwi
barrel of Tapis=$160
Tui reserves and production much higher than expected = mega profits-I estimate current p/e ratio around 2 to 1 or about 50%
Future production from kupe and prc will boost this up further and then we should have more discoveries based on a "mine " of info and experience nzo have accumulated

Does anybody know how many options TR is currently holding ?

[Lion]

McDouall-Stuart had an upbeat piece in yesterday's Business Herald. Similar to this report on the NZOG site . . .

http://www.nzog.net/news/2008/McDouall%20Stuart%20Updated%20Research%20Note%20Ap r08.pdf

Mr Kidd reckons present value is around $1.72, with 12 month projection of $1.95. Conservative, imo.

He talks about the lovely problem of what to do with all the cash if the options are exercised. NZOG would be in the NZX top 20. He suggests various possibilities, share buy back, special dividend, acquisition.

[zorba]

[QUOTE=zorba;196657]


but we recall the article implied that success at KS8 would add to reserves.

might have been posted on this thread say 6 months back

M


Machine,

The 3-D seismic model for Kupe is the basis for the present reserve estimate. The seimic interpretation used for that model is primarily calibrated using the previous 3 exploration holes drilled into the CFA.

Now they have three additional holes in the CFA, with no doubt 3 more sets of electric logs, 3 more sets of OWC and GOC contacts, and three more stratigraphic columns to calibrate the 3-D seismic model from which is derived the geological and reservoir models.

With all this wealth of new info the JV will no doubt be re-evaluating the earlier reserve estimates.

Time will tell if the new estimate is higher or lower.

Z
.

[Lion]

Six or eight weeks ago I posted a chart of the NZO shareprice against a straight line of a 1c a day rise (starting from an arbitrary date of 18th Jan 08) It looked good for a while, keeping it up quite nicely, then it started to look a bit - well - limp.
But I kept putting the data into Excel, and in the last few weeks, it's started to look a bit - well, erect again.
http://homepages.ihug.co.nz/~dick.t/NZOG_v_centaday.gif

(note, I added the 5c divvy on, on 15/4)
OK, I know past performance is no guarantee of future performance, but IF it could keep up the near cent-a-day till end June, that would put it near $2.

Fun, eh? But DYOR.

[the machine]

[QUOTE=the machine;196704]


Machine,

The 3-D seismic model for Kupe is the basis for the present reserve estimate. The seimic interpretation used for that model is primarily calibrated using the previous 3 exploration holes drilled into the CFA.

Now they have three additional holes in the CFA, with no doubt 3 more sets of electric logs, 3 more sets of OWC and GOC contacts, and three more stratigraphic columns to calibrate the 3-D seismic model from which is derived the geological and reservoir models.

With all this wealth of new info the JV will no doubt be re-evaluating the earlier reserve estimates.

Time will tell if the new estimate is higher or lower.

Z
.

thanks zorba.

the joint venture have not given to much detail on the production holes.

by comparision for tui we had the length of the horizontal holes.

for kupe do not know if horizontal or vertical.

some of the earlier drills 20 years ago had gas overlying a thick oil column

hopefully more details will come out 1 day

M

[digger]

[QUOTE=zorba;196787]

thanks zorba.

the joint venture have not given to much detail on the production holes.

by comparision for tui we had the length of the horizontal holes.

for kupe do not know if horizontal or vertical.

some of the earlier drills 20 years ago had gas overlying a thick oil column

hopefully more details will come out 1 day

M


I have a mixed reaction about this lack of anything. Firstly something must be known because the SP seems to be rising on KUPE me thinks. While the rise is always good news it must come from either inside info or educated semi informed guess work or just from straight out punt. Lack of material details always leaves firtile grounds for conspiracy theories to take hold. The longer this goes on the more sinister the play looks.Now of coa-rse the JV will say they want info released to the market to be accurate and if we wait for 20 years it will be in fact 100% correct. I would like some long before then even if it does have to be amended [upwards] as time goes by.

[fish]

[QUOTE=the machine;196814]


I have a mixed reaction about this lack of anything. Firstly something must be known because the SP seems to be rising on KUPE me thinks. While the rise is always good news it must come from either inside info or educated semi informed guess work or just from straight out punt. Lack of material details always leaves firtile grounds for conspiracy theories to take hold. The longer this goes on the more sinister the play looks.Now of coa-rse the JV will say they want info released to the market to be accurate and if we wait for 20 years it will be in fact 100% correct. I would like some long before then even if it does have to be amended [upwards] as time goes by.

Current share price rise could be on back of readily available info-especially increased size and value of tui.
However fully agree we need more info on Kupe .
In the meantime would I be right in saying Tony Radford currently has at least 3 million options in his name or associated entities ?

[wk6332]

By JAMES WEIR - The Dominion Post | Saturday, 26 April 2008


Oil explorers are taking a big step toward what could be a billion-barrel oil field far off the Taranaki coast, which if successful could be a huge earner for taxpayers as well.


South Korean industrial giant Hyundai has just taken a 30 per cent stake in an exploration area in 900-metre-deep water off Taranaki in partnership with United States explorer Global Resource Holdings.

"This is a landmark deal for Global," Global chief Randall Thompson said.

"We are looking seriously for 1 billion barrels."

The partners still have much work to do, carrying out seismic exploration, and if that looks positive, trying to bring in a giant oil company as a partner before drilling a well.

"I'm excited about it and I believe it can be done," Mr Thompson said. "New Zealand has a great potential for giant reserves, in the deep water and there has never been a well drilled in deep water."

Oil is close to record prices at about US$117 (NZ$148) a barrel, indicating a billion barrels would be worth close to NZ$150 billion, less development and running costs running to the hundreds of millions of dollars.

The government takes a 5 per cent share of any oil revenues or 20 per cent of profits as a royalty whichever is greater, as well as corporate tax of 30 per cent.

The high price of oil would help significantly to attract big oil players to consider joining the permit partners, Mr Thompson said.

But partners would need to take a lot of risk, spending up to US$100 million to get a test well down, with no guarantee of success.

If the big one is found, New Zealand would get royalties and corporate taxes, up to 40 per cent of the revenue stream he estimated.

"The government and citizens would make out and you wouldn't have to pay taxes if this came in at 1 billion barrels," he said.

"You could have a tax holiday like Alaska, buddy. I'm working for you. Yes, we are looking to make money but the real winners are the citizens of New Zealand, through rents, royalties and taxes."

The deal is with Hyundai offshoot Hyundai Hysco. Getting South Korea's second biggest company, Hyundai, involved was a key aim, bringing financial muscle to the project.

As Korea's third-largest steel maker Hyundai Hysco brought "financial and technical capability to this project". It also makes floating oil-production ships.

Hyundai Hysco will help pay for seismic exploration at the end of this year. It will also pay an unspecified sum to cover past costs.

Hyundai's steel offshoot wants the oil to provide the fuel it needs to make steel for cars and ships.

The permit is vast, covering almost 56,000 square kilometres west of the Maui gas and oil field, the producing Tui oilfield and the Maari oilfield which is due to start producing next year.

If all goes to plan, the deepwater Taranaki partners would need to drill a well, costing up to US$85 million, the most expensive in New Zealand, by the end of 2010, but field development could take years.

Technical consultant GNS Science has highlighted three giant prospective structures in the permit area.

The two-dimensional seismic testing programme will cost about $5 million and will concentrate on three prospects off the Taranaki coast, called Romney, Coopworth and Corriedale.

Drilling would mean bringing in an international oil giant.

DEEPWATER TARANAKI Exploration permit: 38451. Partners: Global Resource Holdings, 60 per cent; Hyundai Hysco, 30 per cent; Randall Thompson LLC, 10 per cent. The next steps: By April 2009: acquire 3100 kilometres of 2D seismic data, costing up to $5 million. By October 2009: decide whether to drill an exploration well (or drop out). By October 2010: start drilling a well (or drop out). Potential appraisal well: 2011. Production: At least 2013?

[brucey09]

senors. the question re options is - do the directors / staff have to fully pay for their options (at the moment part paid to i think 1c nz ) when the option date expiry comes?

[Tok3n]

[QUOTE=zorba;196787]

thanks zorba.

the joint venture have not given to much detail on the production holes.

by comparision for tui we had the length of the horizontal holes.

for kupe do not know if horizontal or vertical.

some of the earlier drills 20 years ago had gas overlying a thick oil column

hopefully more details will come out 1 day

M

Got to remember, different operators for Tui and Kupe.

[the machine]

[QUOTE=digger;196820]

this week as full quartly report out by wed, in saying that NZOG restricted what they can say re KUPE as they are not the operator.:confused: may be early trades mon/tues will indicate:confused: further


malcolm,the post that you quote are comments from digger not me

M

[digger]

[QUOTE=malcolm;196854]


malcolm,the post that you quote are comments from digger not me

M

The machine the comments you quote are from malcolm not me.

[Nitaa]

Seems as though its Malcolm in the Middle.

What a nice run nzo is having. the smart money got in months if not years ago imo. the profit takers will alays come and go and balance themselves out. In the end the money go to those who have paitence. I am not going to predict what dizzy heights nzo could reach but if Kupe comes in as expected, more good drilling in other parts of Taranaki then who knows. Anyway enough of the what ifs.

I cannot help but draw some parelels with the seventies early eights with oil prices spiking. One big difference is there is substantially less oil (easy oil) around now than back in the 70's. What we have comsumed this century (7 years) is about the same as the entire 20th century oil consumption. Pretty spookey really.

The US is now pushing to tap into the giantic Alaska reserves but i think oil will need to reach well in excess of USD250 before this is given any real serious consideration over the short term. Opec dont want to increase their prodiction and why should they.

What are the immediate alternatives. Stuff all and except higher oil prices i am afraid. Bio fuels are almost (not entirely) the wrong way to go since where are heading into world food crisis if their is any truth in the media. Further areas will be neded to grow plantation for food not fuel.

Although Peak oil and MD dont go together, Peak Oil is starting to get more recognition than Duncan. Now this is iron clad proof that we are entering a new age and commodity prices are showing no shign of slowing down even if the US are in a recession.

Sell your nzo at your peril

[digger]

[QUOTE=digger;196881]

so hopefully this week may bring a tad more info on KUPE THOUGH AS PREV MENTIONED nzog are a little restricted in what they can say not being the operator mkt tomorrow/tues may tell a story.

Could be malcolm in the middle but it looks like a computer screw up to me.Whoever quotes anyone now gets to hold the responsbility for having said that quote in the first place.Answer is do not quote anyone because on that basis you are never going to win

[the machine]

but international wheat prices have fallen by over 40&#37; this weekend:confused:


malcolm, do not know or want to know why you say wheat has fallen by 40%.

why on nzo thread ???????

we know quite a bit about wheat, however a comment like 40% down is like the sky has fallen in


bloomburg says 1 % down


Wheat Falls After India Boosts Grain Deals With Local Farmers

By Tony C. Dreibus

April 25 (Bloomberg) -- Wheat fell on speculation demand for global supplies will ease after India, the world's second- biggest consumer, boosted purchases from domestic producers.

India said today it bought 10.4 million metric tons of the grain locally since the harvest started last week, 3.6 million tons more than a year earlier. Production may rise to a record 76.8 million tons by the end of June, the government said this week. Wheat futures rose to a record in February as worldwide inventories dwindled.

``Traders are focusing on the Indian supplies returning to normal,'' said Mike Zuzolo, chief analyst at Risk Management Commodities in Lafayette, Indiana.

Wheat futures for July delivery fell 8.5 cents, or 1 percent, to $8.155 a bushel on the Chicago Board of Trade. The price is down 7.8 percent this week after falling a combined 11 percent in the previous two weeks. Futures are still up 61 percent in the past year, reaching a record $13.495 a bushel on Feb. 27.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture forecast India will import 2 million metric tons of the grain in the 12 months ending May 31, down from 6.7 million tons a year earlier. India said on April 23 it may not purchase any wheat from global markets because of higher domestic production.

France, Spain

Favorable weather in Europe has helped the outlook for crops, Zuzolo said. Recent rainfall has increased soil moisture in parts of France and Spain, Meteorlogix LLC said in a report today. Precipitation has also helped plants in Ukraine and Russia, the private forecaster said.

``Ukraine and Europe are talking about having more exportable stocks,'' Zuzolo said.

In China, the largest producer and consumer, rains helped yield potential, Woburn, Massachusetts-based Meteorlogix said. Australian crops also have benefited from increased soil moisture, though more rain is needed in some growing areas of the continent, the forecaster said.

Wheat was the fourth-biggest U.S. crop in 2007, valued at $13.7 billion, behind corn, soybeans and hay, government data show.

To contact the reporter on this story: Tony C. Dreibus in Chicago at Tdreibus@bloomberg.net.

Last Updated: April 25, 2008 17:43 EDT

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Advertisement: You've worked, you've saved, now PROTECT your nest egg.!

[digger]

We're arranging an interview with New Zealand Oil & Gas chief executive David Salisbury on Tuesday, May 13.

If you have any questions you'd like our journalist, Jenny Ruth, to ask on your behalf send them to me before 12th May. [vicky@sharetrader.co.nz]

Vicky
ShareTrader Admin

Thanks Vicky for taking the initiative on this matter. I am sure you will get a lot of interest and questions. From me i will wait for the quartly but have some in mind afterwards.
Thanks again.

[trackers]

We're arranging an interview with New Zealand Oil & Gas chief executive David Salisbury on Tuesday, May 13.

If you have any questions you'd like our journalist, Jenny Ruth, to ask on your behalf send them to me before 12th May. [vicky@sharetrader.co.nz]

Vicky
ShareTrader Admin

Awesome, thanks Vicky! Should be interesting

I would ask what NZO plan to do with their (certain in my mind) exercise of options money.... But I'm sure that that will be covered :)

[Nitaa]

How times change.

NZO up 5 cps (over 3%) in short time today and hardly a whisper. 12 months ago or longer, speculation would be rife of insider trading, what do NZO no they they apart from the hogs in the trough know that we dont know etc.

The longer standing holders knew to a degree that nzo would increase in sp leading up to the conversion. The PR machine kicks in and will tell the market what effetively the market knows already because it has already been disclosed. Except brokers and majority of investors do not know much about NZO or have bothered to do much research as there are plenty more stocks that they feel in their comfort zone about. Heck you only have to look at how many scrambled to jump on the bandwagon of the aussie stocks. Now many of those speccy's have taken a big dive.

The PR machine hasnt finished and baring unforseen cirmcumstances we will continue to get more positive and often repetive news to temp new invesotrs to help convince the market that nzo is going to be a major player in the nz oil exploration scene.

[rotweiller]

Is it all go????

Noted the first lot of options exercised today.
OK it was only 1100 but someone putting their money where their obvious confidence lies.

Cheers

[duncan macgregor]

[QUOTE=duncan macgregor;196625][QUOTE=duncan macgregor;196495][QUOTE=duncan macgregor;196434]Competition to select NZO share price on conversion date June 30th
in the event of a tie the winner is the person with the correct score posting first
I will list you in posting order.
1,AMR 180c, 2, OILER 165c, 3,Macdunk 159c. 4,MATTYROO 158c.
5,SEAMUS 135c, 6,SERPIE 131c, 7, LIZ 120c, 8, STRAT157c.
9TRACKERS 168, 10, COLIN 170, 11,THE MACHINE 210c. 12,MALCOLM 200c.
13,SPOOK 172, 14,BIG BOB184c, 15,ZORBA 155c, 16, REMY 167c,
17 AMERICAN PSYCHO 175c 18 SHASTA 161c, 19RONTHEPOM 171c 20 PHAEDRUS 160.
21SHREWDY 169, 22 BERMUDA 149, 23 MORV 183c, 24 COALIE 188c
25 DIGGER 173c, 26 blank, 27 NITA 181c, 28 SUMMER NED 193c.
29 QOH 179c, 30 WK6332 225c 31 BALANCE $10-60 32 KS 162,
33 TOK3N 145c, 34 SHANE M 162.5c, 35CORRAN 156c, 36 MICK100 300c.
37 DSURF 154c, 38 SKEET 185c,39 MIBO 177c, 40 JAY 162c,
41 ZACMAN 187c, 42 GAMBLER33 115c, 43 ANUBUS144c, 44 BRUCETO9 164c.
45 romer 163c.46 HOOP 147c 47 RABBI 148c 48 ROTWEILLER 153c,
49 MINGEATHINAIOOS 150c,50 MANXMAN 195c, 51 MACDUFFY 146c, 52 BLOCKHEAD 198c,
53 777 226c,54 SWISSBOY 174c,55 AIRDALE166,56 CLIPS 178c,
57 PADDIE 196c,58 FOODEE 176, 59 BK152c,60 MPC182c,
61 STEVE 151,62 ONTHEMONEY 143, 63 LION 186, 64,TIM23 189c,
65 BOB C 190 66 RIF RAF 191c 67, OUT TO LUNCH 194 68 SEHNSUCHT888 192c,
69 PIETRADE 220c,70 ZAC 197c, 71,CAM 245C,72, CHALICE 214c,

[digger]

Is it all go????

Noted the first lot of options exercised today.
OK it was only 1100 but someone putting their money where their obvious confidence lies.

Cheers

This sort of thing always seems to happen. One cause is that it could be a deceased state winding up.In a case like that all outstanding matters have to concluded and then calculated.Also ten to one most legal folkes would not know what an option was if they fell over it.. Another cause is if someone will be out of town by 30 june and simlpy wants everything tied up before hand,so the two months free carry is sactafised.

[spook]

OK Lets have another CONTEST! Not in competition with Duncan's, but a pick list on the option prices. These can be in points (i.e 0.1 cents) up to 20c, and
perhaps we should make it up to June 20th as by the 30th you would have missed the boat.

I will match Duncan's prize of $100 wine bottle, and first pick at each price only qualifies!

Please feel free to specify what wine you would like if you win, I would pick a Bourbon myself.:D

[QOH]

I'll be in, is 20 cents the max we can pick. If so put me down for that.

[COLIN]

OK Lets have another CONTEST! Not in competition with Duncan's, but a pick list on the option prices. These can be in points (i.e 0.1 cents) up to 20c, and
perhaps we should make it up to June 20th as by the 30th you would have missed the boat.

I will match Duncan's prize of $100 wine bottle, and first pick at each price only qualifies!

Please feel free to specify what wine you would like if you win, I would pick a Bourbon myself.:D

Seems little point in running a separate competition. At 20 June (i.e. so close to conversion date) the options will simply be whatever the head shares are, less $1-50! And they will be well above 20 cents, so decimal points won't exist.

[Bob C]

23 cents for me please Spook....

[OutToLunch]

I'll have a crack at 35... :) thanks

[duncan macgregor]

OK Lets have another CONTEST! Not in competition with Duncan's, but a pick list on the option prices. These can be in points (i.e 0.1 cents) up to 20c, and
perhaps we should make it up to June 20th as by the 30th you would have missed the boat.

I will match Duncan's prize of $100 wine bottle, and first pick at each price only qualifies!

Please feel free to specify what wine you would like if you win, I would pick a Bourbon myself.:D SPOOK its not macdunk who is donating the prize. You cant have a competition with a fraction of a cent it wont happen. Then you want to make a 20c limit on the top side when it looks like the options will end up above that making your competition void. The rules in any honest competition ban the organiser from winning a prize. In my case i clearly stated that i would donate it if i was fortunate enough to win.
I think if you dont write up your rules before you start and stick to them it will become messy. I think it would be a lot more interesting to have a contest on the percentage rise or drop in the shareprice in the month of july. Macdunk

[trackers]

If 20c is the max, 19c please... If its not, then 24c please :)

[dsurf]

6.5c ta - relying on plenty of sales of the heads to fund the oppies.

[spook]

Hey McDunc, I'm donating the prize on this one brother, and Im not going to enter.

There is no maximum pick (sky's the limit on this one!), but price will be in full cents only above 20cents. So picks up to now:

Dsurf 6.5c

QOH 20c

BobC 23c

Trackers 24c

Out To Lunch 35c

Dsurf & QOH feel free to change your pick if you are not happy with those

[trackers]

The main question for me atm is will there be resistance at 1.69? I believe that theory should be tested this week with the Quarterly.

Disc: Holding heads, but actually want the sp to go back down so that I can re-enter NZOOD!

[duncan macgregor]

Hey McDunc, I'm donating the prize on this one brother, and Im not going to enter.

20c is not max pick, but price will be in full cents only above that. So picks up to now:

Dsurf 6.5c

QOH 20c

BobC 23c

Trackers 24c

Out To Lunch 35c

Dsurf & QOH feel free to change your pick if you are not happy with thoseStick me down for 9c. Not being a plonker i prefer scotch. Macdunk

[spook]

Hey McDunc, I'm donating the prize on this one brother, and Im not going to enter.

There is no maximum pick (sky's the limit on this one!), but price will be in full cents only above 20cents. So picks up to now:

Dsurf 6.5c

McDuncan 9c Scotch (1000 year old?):)

QOH 20c

BobC 23c

Trackers 24c

Out To Lunch 35c

Dsurf & QOH feel free to change your pick if you are not happy with those

Oh and Entries close in 7 days i.e Midnight May 5th!!! So be quick!

[tim23]

I'll have 15c thanks that matches my original pick of $1.65 in Dunacns comp that I had to resubmit!

[QOH]

I'll change to 30 cents.

[brucey09]

hi senor spook
17.6c por favor
brucey09

[brucey09]

senor spook
sauza tequila gold gracias

[MPC]

24 thanks but your competition is a blatant rip off of the original and therefore can not be as good.

Cheers,
MPC

[pietrade]

Make mine 22c please Spook. Ta.

[Rabbi]

Momoho will be a duster and the options will get dumped because people cannot afford to convert..so it's 1.5 cents for me thanks Spook.

[digger]

23 and i have to say something to make message long enought for entry.

[arjay]

Momoho will be a duster and the options will get dumped because people cannot afford to convert..so it's 1.5 cents for me thanks Spook.

Rabbi, it's been my habit to take the view that each well will be a duster and invest accordingly. Overall I've come out ahead, however I will be very surprised if they find nothing at Momoho. The risk as I see it is that the Momoho result will not come in before June 30th.

[Chippie]

I will take 28 cents
Thanks

[upside_umop]

Same as MPC..dont really see the point of two competitions?

Why don't you guys combine the prizes for the original MD comp?

I'll wait a while with my pick MD...

[Chippie]

I think having a closing date for the picks makes the NZOOD's a real competition.
MD is playing his own games with NZO :)

[spook]

24 thanks but your competition is a blatant rip off of the original and therefore can not be as good.

Cheers,
MPC

Thanks MPC I fully agree

Latest update

Rabbi 1.5c

Dsurf 6.5c

McDunck 9c Scotch (1000 year old?)

Zorba 14.5c

Tim23 15c

Brucey09 17.6c Sauza Tequila Gold (never seen it but sounds goooood)

PieTrade 22c + MPC 22c

BobC 23c + Digger 23c

Trackers 24c

Digger 27c

Chippie 28c

QOH 30c

Out To Lunch 35c

Malcolm 46c

Just to reiterate the rules, closing date Monday 5th 12pm

Only first pick at each price qualifies for prize.

[fish]

tapis still climbing to new records-currently us $126.86 .
PRC still climbing
Quarterly financial report should be brilliant -is this due out on wednesday ? at any specific time?
Seeing a belated change of heart with stockbrokers and excellent media publicity so current buying pressure should continue for the next few months at least

[zorba]

.
Spook

Gud on ya, that scoundril McKlunk's competiotion was perpetrated by a complete and utter tamporal insertive w.anker, since that skandilous wusky swilling BS artist didnay hav any Noggies himself !!

Put me down for 14.5

********************************************

Grumpy McKlunk
Please do a bunk
Please exit da board
Head to sea with ya sword
And catch a fishy hoard
To make up da dough
You've tossed overboard
What a way to go !!!!

[digger]

Thanks MPC I full

PieTrade 22c + MPC 22c

BobC 23c + Digger 23

Only first pick at each price qualifies for prize.

Ok 27 then.Still seems to be around.

[the machine]

tapis still climbing to new records-currently us $126.86 .
PRC still climbing
Quarterly financial report should be brilliant -is this due out on wednesday ? at any specific time?
Seeing a belated change of heart with stockbrokers and excellent media publicity so current buying pressure should continue for the next few months at least

on the asx they should be submitted before about 1900 on wed.
am hoping for an increased production forecast to june 30, however that may entail having to wait until awe and ppp ready to submit their quarterlies - hence no early lodgement like tomorrow.

M

[zorba]

.
What a way to go -- Deutcha Bank suggests oil price to top out at US$250 / barrel !!
.

**************************************

Oil May Rise Until Demand Collapses, Deustche Says (Update1)

By Ayesha Daya

April 28 (Bloomberg) -- There is a ``huge risk'' that oil prices will continue to rise until demand collapses because additional supplies are limited and alternative fuels decades away from replacing crude, Deutsche Bank AG said.

``There is a huge risk that the oil price simply continues to escalate until it gets to some level ($200 a barrel?) when demand finally collapses because ordinary people can no longer afford to burn as much energy as they are burning now,'' Deutsche Bank's chief energy economist Adam Sieminski wrote in a report dated April 25.

Oil demand previously collapsed in the early 1980s, after nominal oil prices rose by a factor of 10 between 1970-73 and 1980-83, from around $3.50 a barrel to $35. Oil averaged about $25 a barrel from 2000-03, suggesting prices would have to increase to $250 a barrel in 2010-13 to have the same impact on oil users this time around, Sieminski said.

Oil prices have surged 82 percent in the past year as investors purchased contracts as a hedge against the dollar, which fell to a record low against the euro, and as an alternative to flagging equity markets. Crude oil rose to a record $119.93 a barrel today after BP Plc shut a North Sea pipeline and gunmen attacked police guarding Nigeria's largest oil and gas terminal.

Investment Needs

Additional oil supplies will come only from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, which produces 40 percent of the world's oil, because non-OPEC output will need ``enormous levels of investment'' just to maintain current levels of production.

``However, much of the remaining oil-in-the-ground in OPEC is run by National Oil Companies that have, by and large, been starved of investment capital by their own governments, for example Venezuela, Nigeria, Iran,'' Sieminski said.

The exception is Saudi Arabia, which holds the world's largest oil reserves. The country has no plans to raise output beyond its 2009 target of 12.5 million barrels a day, Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi said in an interview with Argus Media this month.

Any strengthening of the U.S. dollar would take time to stem the flow of investment into commodities, and alternative energies such as solar power or biofuels are at least a decade away from contributing to energy supply, Sieminski said.

To contact the reporter on this story: Ayesha Daya in Dubai adaya1@bloomberg.net

[duncan macgregor]

[QUOTE=duncan macgregor;196964][QUOTE=duncan macgregor;196625][QUOTE=duncan macgregor;196495][QUOTE=duncan macgregor;196434]Competition to select NZO share price on conversion date June 30th
in the event of a tie the winner is the person with the correct score posting first
I will list you in posting order.
1,AMR 180c, 2, OILER 165c, 3,Macdunk 159c. 4,MATTYROO 158c.
5,SEAMUS 135c, 6,SERPIE 131c, 7, LIZ 120c, 8, STRAT157c.
9TRACKERS 168, 10, COLIN 170, 11,THE MACHINE 210c. 12,MALCOLM 200c.
13,SPOOK 172, 14,BIG BOB184c, 15,ZORBA 155c, 16, REMY 167c,
17 AMERICAN PSYCHO 175c 18 SHASTA 161c, 19RONTHEPOM 171c 20 PHAEDRUS 160.
21SHREWDY 169, 22 BERMUDA 149, 23 MORV 183c, 24 COALIE 188c
25 DIGGER 173c, 26 blank, 27 NITA 181c, 28 SUMMER NED 193c.
29 QOH 179c, 30 WK6332 225c 31 BALANCE $10-60 32 KS 162,
33 TOK3N 145c, 34 SHANE M 162.5c, 35CORRAN 156c, 36 MICK100 300c.
37 DSURF 154c, 38 SKEET 185c,39 MIBO 177c, 40 JAY 162c,
41 ZACMAN 187c, 42 GAMBLER33 115c, 43 ANUBUS144c, 44 BRUCETO9 164c.
45 romer 163c.46 HOOP 147c 47 RABBI 148c 48 ROTWEILLER 153c,
49 MINGEATHINAIOOS 150c,50 MANXMAN 195c, 51 MACDUFFY 146c, 52 BLOCKHEAD 198c,
53 777 226c,54 SWISSBOY 174c,55 AIRDALE166,56 CLIPS 178c,
57 PADDIE 196c,58 FOODEE 176, 59 BK152c,60 MPC182c,
61 STEVE 151,62 ONTHEMONEY 143, 63 LION 186, 64,TIM23 189c,
65 BOB C 190 66 RIF RAF 191c 67, OUT TO LUNCH 194 68 SEHNSUCHT888 192c,
69 PIETRADE 220c,70 ZAC 197c, 71,CAM 245C,72, CHALICE 214c,

[trackers]

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/section/3/story.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=10506838





Oil price peaks near US $120

New 8:11AM Tuesday April 29, 2008
By Matthew Robinson





Oil has hit a fresh peak near $120 a barrel as supply outages in Nigeria and Britain shut down nearly 2 million barrels per day (bpd) of output in the Atlantic Basin.
US crude CLc1 settled up 23 cents at $118.75 a barrel after earlier hitting a record of $119.93. London Brent crude LCOc1 settled up 40 cents to settle at $116.74.
feckin hell... Tapis = US$126.13 (9 hours old, suspect it may be higher) = $160.574 NZD

[peterfindlay]

tapis still climbing to new records-currently us $126.86 .
PRC still climbing
Quarterly financial report should be brilliant -is this due out on wednesday ? at any specific time?
Seeing a belated change of heart with stockbrokers and excellent media publicity so current buying pressure should continue for the next few months at least

The quarterly is due out this morning at 11 am NZ time.

[digger]

OK who was it that posted a comment asking when NZO was going to produce it's 10 millionth barrel. They pulled it but not before i spotted it. Shame as it was indeed a far sighted question At the time i was busy so could not get around to answering.
For NZO to get 10 million from tui we need to get 80 million from the field. Well at the moment and for years to come no one from management is going to talk about such a high figure.That is years away and many upgrades later.The question is just too far down the track. Come back in 2015 and it will be a talking figure.
Also read Arjays Southern Pertolum thread where Shell gave out some rubbish about a field not having much and is still producing now about 10 years later.NZO management is not the slightest slippery as Shell was and probably still is,but the JV'ers in TUI will take a very consertive guessmate and work upward from there.People like upgrades and never forgive downsizing.

[sideline]

Well, the quarterly is out, but the cashflow does not contain any numbers???????

((Anybody can see the full report? Please post. Thanks)))

Found the numbers on the ASX !!!

[trackers]

$58.2million revenue for the Quarter

[skeet]

Well, the quarterly is out, but the cashflow does not contain any numbers???????

((Anybody can see the full report? Please post. Thanks)))

Found the numbers on the ASX !!!

http://www.nzog.net/news

[fish]

http://www.nzog.net/news

what a fantastic result

another 5cent dividend -



NZO
29/04/2008
QUARTER

REL: 1105 HRS New Zealand Oil and Gas Limited

QUARTER: NZO: NZOG March 2008 Quarterly Activities Report

NEW ZEALAND OIL & GAS LIMITED
ACTIVITIES REPORT for the quarter ended 31 March 2008

Key Points
- Dividend declared: 5 cents per ordinary share
- Tui production continues to exceed predictions
- NZ$58.2 million in revenue for the quarter
- Kupe Project over two-thirds complete
- Commitment to drill Momoho
- Pike River Coal funding secured

In a three month period that included a number of achievements for New
Zealand Oil & Gas Ltd, of particular note was the declaration of a dividend -
the first for ten years and only the second in the company's history.

The Board of NZOG resolved to pay a fully imputed dividend for the 2007/08
financial year of 5.0c per ordinary share. This recognises an extremely
successful period and provides shareholders with an immediate share of that
success.

NZOG's total revenue for the quarter was NZ$58.2 million, taking revenue for
the first nine months of the financial year to NZ$153.7m, including Tui
revenue of NZ$141.8m.

The Tui Area Oil Fields have continued to produce at a rate well above the
pre-production modelling predictions. Total production for the three month
period was over four million barrels, taking production since start-up to
10.46 million barrels - NZOG's share over 1.3 million barrels.

The Kupe Project has made significant progress and is now over two-thirds
complete. Two of the three development wells had reached their final depths
by the end of the quarter and the nearby Momoho prospect will be drilled once
the development wells are completed. Momoho has the 'right address' and if a
commercial gas discovery could be developed via the Kupe facilities.

Pike River Coal Ltd (PRC) successfully completed a rights and convertible
bond issue, to secure funding for the mine development through to commercial
production. Good progress has been made with the mine development and PRC's
market value has been boosted by high coking coal prices.

[Wilkins_Micawber]

what a fantastic result

another 5cent dividend -




I suspect this is referring to the 5cps already paid in the quarter :(

[fish]

sorry -they may be referring to the dividend just paid
A great result nevertheless and looks to me as if should easily book a profit of over 50cents a year per share

[arjay]

Momoho not expected to spud till late May - result therefore not likely before June 30th.

[sideline]

another 5cent dividend -


Key Points
- Dividend declared: 5 cents per ordinary share
.......
- NZ$58.2 million in revenue for the quarter
.


another one? the report refers to the divi we just received! Maybe later.

But on the whole really a fantastic result
NZO is basically debt free now, with cash
approximately equal borrowings.

Don't quite see the revenue figure of 58.2m in the cashflow report! That says
RECEIPTS from product sales etc..............................65.5 million NZD ????

Anyone can explain the difference?

[digger]

I suspect this is referring to the 5cps already paid in the quarter :(

Quartly reports deal in the past . At that time we had the 5 cents dividend so report is not talking about the future.

[skeet]

Fantastic result.... but market isnt liking it....

[bk]

So, a good report out, and the share price is dropping? Probably because it did not contain any surprise/ Tui rerating (as it shouldn't), apart from the indication that Momoho will not likely complete before the options are due - although with the options already being in the money that should not matter.

Also important - will Pike hit the magical first coal before that date? Doubtful. But long term outlook still rosy, with the company re-iterating the plan to keep looking for more.

As I said, nothing new really, just a confirmation that all is well in NZO land

[tim23]

When does the fy end for NOG 3/12 or 30/06? I think the latter so the comment is correct

[OutToLunch]

So, a good report out, and the share price is dropping? Probably because it did not contain any surprise/ Tui rerating (as it shouldn't), apart from the indication that Momoho will not likely complete before the options are due - although with the options already being in the money that should not matter. <snip>

Mmmmm that depends. If some of the recent share/option price appreciation has been in anticipation of Momoho, and some now see it as not coming in before June 30, we could possibly see the options again become a marginal proposition -- particularly if there are a lot of holders wanting to sell, rather than convert. In the meantime, some update on the Tui production figures would help, as would progress at Pike.

[Rif-Raf]

Spook - 5.7c for me Cheers

Not sure what else you want from the quarter, $58m revenue is not too shabby.

[arjay]

It's going to be an interesting two months. The quarterly suggests that Momoho won't be finished until after option expiry time, so there is little blue sky in the next two months to push up the SP (unless AWE get an big Tui upgrade out in June). Secondly, history has shown (ie the OC's) that there is likely to be downward pressure on the heads from now (maybe we're seeing it already) until the end of June as peopel raise cash to exercise options. The interesting thing will be the proportion of OD's exercised if the SP remians close to $1.50?

Comments please: if some ODs are not exercised is NZO allowed to have them exercised by someone else? Someone recently commented that this happend with NEO.

[duncan macgregor]

I would think that the options will be rather marginal in this bear market. Lets face it NZO have trended up in a down trending market. The NZX market it general looks likely to continue its downward spiral. The people holding the options are either traders who will sell before conversion, or holders of heads who will be forced to sell the heads in order to finance the options. I would think from a traders point of view without taking fundamentals into account, the sp will struggle to trend up in the next two months. I cant see people borrowing money in this economic climate to convert the options, rather than sell down. To much must sell pressure over the next nine weeks will take out the buyers for very much to happen in the short term. Macdunk

[Nitaa]

I would think that the options will be rather marginal in this bear market. Lets face it NZO have trended up in a down trending market. The NZX market it general looks likely to continue its downward spiral. The people holding the options are either traders who will sell before conversion, or holders of heads who will be forced to sell the heads in order to finance the options. I would think from a traders point of view without taking fundamentals into account, the sp will struggle to trend up in the next two months. I cant see people borrowing money in this economic climate to convert the options, rather than sell down. To much must sell pressure over the next nine weeks will take out the buyers for very much to happen in the short term. MacdunkYou have every other call wrong about NZO so far this year and its likely this is another. The worthless options now have real value as it stands and there is a good chance that a good chunk will be converted even if not in the money come expiry date.

Let me know when you buy as that will be my sell signal

[duncan macgregor]

[QUOTE=Nita;there is a good chance that a good chunk will be converted even if not in the money come expiry date.
/QUOTE] NITA, What a stupid thing to say why would anyone convert if they were not in the money. They would have to be a complete nutter to throw money away converting an option at $1-50 if they could buy it on the open market for less. Macdunk

[Nitaa]

[QUOTE=Nita;there is a good chance that a good chunk will be converted even if not in the money come expiry date.
/QUOTE] NITA, What a stupid thing to say why would anyone convert if they were not in the money. They would have to be a complete nutter to throw money away converting an option at $1-50 if they could buy it on the open market for less. MacdunkI would covert even if they wernt in the money. EG sp at $1.45 and i wanted a medium to large stake in the company. What an easy way for some player to come waltzing in a grabing a sizable chunk of the company.

Does that not make sense to you ya silly ol gumboot.

[duncan macgregor]

[QUOTE=duncan macgregor;197174]I would covert even if they wernt in the money. EG sp at $1.45 and i wanted a medium to large stake in the company. What an easy way for some player to come waltzing in a grabing a sizable chunk of the company.

Does that not make sense to you ya silly ol gumboot. Nita anyone that converts the options at $1-50 if the sp is below that is a complete nutter. Why not buy a larger quantity on the open market or is that to easy. Any company planning a take over or a large stake at this time would have shown their hand before now. It is a very bad market at the moment conversion time will tend to lower the sp to that $1-50 level simply because people will cash down the heads to convert the options. Remember i sold my lot at 9c to buy PPP at 11c you rode them up the hill and back down again without thinking. This is a thinking mans game as you should know trading under your wifes name poor woman. Macdunk

[Crypto Crude]

Mackdunk,
what about brokerage fees/foreign exchange fees for buying on market?...
Can anyone tell me if there are transaction fees for converting options?...
this may answer your statements MD...
.....
Heads will be above $1.50 at expiration... theres no doubt about that in my mind...
:cool:
.^sc

[Sumnerned]

Around 50million heads and options (25m each) have changed hands in the last two months.

[duncan macgregor]

Mackdunk,
what about brokerage fees/foreign exchange fees for buying on market?...
Can anyone tell me if there are transaction fees for converting options?...
this may answer your statements MD...
.....
Heads will be above $1.50 at expiration... theres no doubt about that in my mind...
:cool:
.^sc SHREWDY i think they get converted free of brokerage but that is only a trifle. Conversion will lower the share price regardless of how high it goes Because of the dilution effect plus people cashing to convert. At least you were smart enough to sell the options to the [optionmists] earlier on. Macdunk

[dsurf]

[QUOTE=Nita;197179] Nita anyone that converts the options at $1-50 if the sp is below that is a complete nutter. Why not buy a larger quantity on the open market or is that to easy. Any company planning a take over or a large stake at this time would have shown their hand before now. It is a very bad market at the moment conversion time will tend to lower the sp to that $1-50 level simply because people will cash down the heads to convert the options. Remember i sold my lot at 9c to buy PPP at 11c you rode them up the hill and back down again without thinking. This is a thinking mans game as you should know trading under your wifes name poor woman. Macdunk


MacD 20 mill options traded in April alone - If anyone wanted a large stake it would be far cheaper to buy the options as they would never get that quantity of heads

[foodee]

Does the substantial(5%) rule apply to options?

[777]

Does the substantial(5%) rule apply to options?

I would not think so. But on exercising the options on the 30/6/08 then notification would have to be made. Of course the 5% would on a new number of shares. Existing plus the options exercised.

[digger]

Does the substantial(5%) rule apply to options?

The answer is NO. Options are not a stake in a company.They are only a right to take a stake sometime in the future.

[Nitaa]

[QUOTE=duncan macgregor;197188]


MacD 20 mill options traded in April alone - If anyone wanted a large stake it would be far cheaper to buy the options as they would never get that quantity of headsWe finally have someone who is on to it
Macdunk...this is what i am alluding to. You can pick up a million or 2 with too much of a peoblem on the open market but what would you do if you wanted to pick up 20 or 40 million shares without sending the sp into the sky?

It took less than 100k of heads to drop the sp about 4 cents today at one stage today so if such a small amount can affect the sp so much, how would buying 10's of milliond do. I am simply offering a logical option for a company or individual to gety a signigicant stake of the company without unduly affect the heads even if the sp was slightly below the excercise price

[fish]

The buying opportunites provided by the nzx astonish me -I have now bought back all the options I sold last year-and a few more for less than what I sold them for.
At the time of sale I had no intention of buying back but with the continued record oil production and Tui oil production 2.5 times that originally predicted for this time (42500 barrels per day versus 18000 ) I felt It would be stupid not to take advantage of the markets short-sighted behavior
Todays quarterly report was everything I hoped-short of another dividend . The bar graph of Tui production is incredible-far better than I have heard anyone suggest . The total production of oil so far is represented by the area under the graph-in march it was 2.5 times that predicted and barely falling away-it is likely that 3 times as much or more oil will be extracted at prices more than 1.5 times predicted .Total net profit from Tui is likely to be around 5 times that originally predicted .
It seems likely that similar scenarios will play out for pike and kupe .
I think nzo management have been very conservative and careful with shareholders funds .

(what a contrast to some financial advisers and some company directors and some sharebrokers)
Quality management , quality assets , quality knowledge of nz hydrocarbon reserve potential= a company that gives me quality sleep at night .
I dont expect Duncan will ever see the light -and I dont care -my focus now is finding the money to pay for the options -sold some contact this week and may have to sell some prc as well but in no rush and will run with prc profits for a while yet.

[Steve]

[QUOTE=dsurf;197196]We finally have someone who is on to it
Macdunk...this is what i am alluding to. You can pick up a million or 2 with too much of a peoblem on the open market but what would you do if you wanted to pick up 20 or 40 million shares without sending the sp into the sky?


Have NITA and MACDUNK finally reached an agreement on something? How about that - I never thought that I would have seen the day... ;)

[tim23]

Duncan - I'm so please you sold NOGOD and bought PPP but i'm sure we've heard it before; have you still got those beloved PPP shares?

PS Are you sure the market is still in a downward spiral??

[Chippie]

all news in quarterly report as expected and in total production to date a lot better--- if they are going to be late as they are saying to start drilling MOMOHO it, will be only because of more indeapth testing at KUPE which is excitingly positive still possible for MOMOHO to be finished on due date. don,t expect company to invent news for the sake of it:D:D

I agree that there is nothing saying that MOMOHO can not be completed prior to the end of June. The report today said that MOMOHO would start late May. Has anything been released previously by NZO stating that it would take more than 5-6 weeks to drill?

[fish]

ShareChat News: NZOG ponders how to spend war chest as Tui keeps pumping

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
New Zealand Oil & Gas Limited
Intra-day 3 month 1 year 2 year

Current Quote:
NZO $1.58 -0.02
(quotes delayed 20 minutes)
Price when article published: $1.58


By NZPA
Tuesday 29th April 2008

Oil explorer NZ Oil and Gas (NZOG) is pondering how to spend hundreds of millions of dollars in its expanding war chest, and may be forced to look beyond New Zealand.

With the Tui oil field production levels steady instead of tailing off as expected and oil prices hitting record highs, NZOG reported March quarter revenue of $58.2 million, lifting revenue for the nine months to $153.7 million, including $141.8 million from the Tui oil field.

Forecast annual revenue is around $200m compared with total revenue two years ago of just $7.5m.

"Tui has really turned into a Superman field for us -- bigger, higher and faster than we expected," said NZOG spokesman Chris Roberts.

The price of oil had been around $US30 ($NZ38.70) a barrel when the field was sanctioned and $US65 when production started. Now benchmark Tapis crude was around $US125 a barrel.

With Tui production averaging around 44,000 barrels a day when it was expected to be about 17,000 barrels a day, field operator AWE will review the field reserves given how far above forecast the production rate was. A report was expected by the end of June.

NZOG owns a 12.5% stake in Tui.

Other companies involved are AWE New Zealand Pty (20%), New Zealand Overseas Petroleum Pty (22.5%), Mitsui E & P New Zealand (35%) and Pan Pacific Petroleum (10%).

After paying the second dividend in its history this month, and after expenses, at the end of the quarter NZOG had a cash balance of $45.9 million.

NZOG said it would consider another dividend next financial year, if there was enough cash to meet its other requirements.

The company expected a solid take up of its 139 million options by shareholders by June 30, with the conversion price of $1.50 against NZOG's share price around $1.60.

In the unlikely event that all the options were taken up, NZOG would have an equity injection of $208 million, for which it was developing plans.

"If the option money comes in on a large scale, at $100m plus, that may force us to start looking abroad in terms of the scale of opportunities that we need," Roberts said.

A full take up of options would boost NZOG to around 17th-largest company on the stock exchange from 27th currently, and 34th at the end of last year.

It would probably be one of the largest capital raisings on the NZX this year, and was a big deal for the company, said McDouall Stuart energy analyst John Kidd.

NZOG was riding high on Tui's performance at a time of record oil prices, but how the company invested its cash would be vital.

"The challenge is definitely there for NZOG to step up and prove that what's next will continue to add value, like has been achieved with Tui," Kidd said.

The company had considered Swift Energy's oil and gas assets that were sold to Contact Energy and Origin last year for about $115m, but they did not make commercial sense.

Elsewhere on its books, other permits in the Taranaki basin contained Tui look alikes, which NZ Oil and Gas was aiming to include in a drilling campaign next year if it could secure a rig.

NZOG also said today that the Kupe Project had made significant progress and was now over two-thirds complete.

The Kupe joint venture, in which NZOG owns a 15% stake, was planning to start drilling in May at Momoho, 6km south of the Kupe gas field and within the Kupe permit area, using the Ensco 107 drilling rig.

Pike River Coal, in which NZOG had a 31% stake, was benefiting from even greater price rises in coal, due to strong demand for steel, the end use for Pike River's coking coal.

[the machine]

really no detail in the quarterly report about the kupe drills regarding vertical or hozinontal , how far into the reservior etc.

elevated hydrocargon readings is all we know from recent drilling.

20 years ago there was oil there - can anyone tell me if its still there.

M

[digger]

page 2 of the activities report shows that with passing time the actual production from TUI is as a precent increasing over the origional estimated production. In the last interim report page 4 and 5 shows that production for year ending 2008[11months] is estimated at 1.5 million to NZO. This is now more likely to be in the range of 1.7 to 1.8.
The next year ending 2009 is the dip that i have always said will not be as big as the very consertive estimates place it. This given dip in 2009 is very important as markets do not like revenue to decrease. The interim has that year at .75 million. With todays figures it is very likely to be somewhere in the range of 1.1 to 1.2 million barrels
Tui is a little god send. Hail TUI

[bermuda]

I agree that there is nothing saying that MOMOHO can not be completed prior to the end of June. The report today said that MOMOHO would start late May. Has anything been released previously by NZO stating that it would take more than 5-6 weeks to drill?

50 days.She is post options I am afraid. My call $1.49

[777]

Chris Roberts on morning report today indicated April production of approx 44m barrels compared with 15m or 17m(can't remember which) forecast.

[Lion]

Chris Roberts on morning report today indicated April production of approx 44m barrels compared with 15m or 17m(can't remember which) forecast.

Is this what you are referring to 777?
"With Tui production averaging around 44,000 barrels a day when it was expected to be about 17,000 barrels a day . . . "

Pretty amazing stuff really, with the Tapis price so high too.

[fish]

50 days.She is post options I am afraid. My call $1.49

actually I quite like the fact they might still be drilling Momoho at the time of expiry options-cant see how the excitement of this will detract from the sp. There will almost certainly be hydrocarbons there and surely a high chance will have been detected by 30th june .

Tapis oil price is holding up well at $124 us and nz dollar is falling nicely and likely to continue falling this year.

My further reading of yesterdays quarterly report and chris-see yesterdays postings by me - indicate nzo net s profits for 12 months ending 30 th june -counting the increase in value of prc could be a lot more than the 50 cent s per share-I have previously posted-maybe as much as 80 cents giving a p/e ratio of 2 to 1 .

Bermuda- can you explain if you mean the options will be worth $1.49 or do you think they will be valueless . In either case are you in the market to buy more?

[dsurf]

page 2 of the activities report shows that with passing time the actual production from TUI is as a precent increasing over the origional estimated production. In the last interim report page 4 and 5 shows that production for year ending 2008[11months] is estimated at 1.5 million to NZO. This is now more likely to be in the range of 1.7 to 1.8.
The next year ending 2009 is the dip that i have always said will not be as big as the very consertive estimates place it. This given dip in 2009 is very important as markets do not like revenue to decrease. The interim has that year at .75 million. With todays figures it is very likely to be somewhere in the range of 1.1 to 1.2 million barrels
Tui is a little god send. Hail TUI

digger - There is a huge incentive for the operator to minimise the "published" reserves. In the year the reserves are announced (for Ausi companies) a tax liability is created that is recorded in the P& L as "tax" that would be paid on ALL the reserves. The tax is not paid however until the stuff is pumped. Recognising the real reserves would severely limit NPAT, EPS & PE & SP. So I think tah was why the "water content" was forecast to increase so strongly. I expect the "water content" will be forecast to increase every year limiting the tax recordable for the current year.

[duncan macgregor]

Competition to select NZO share price on conversion date June 30th
in the event of a tie the winner is the person with the correct score posting first
I will list you in posting order.
1,AMR 180c, 2, OILER 165c, 3,Macdunk 159c. 4,MATTYROO 158c.
5,SEAMUS 135c, 6,SERPIE 131c, 7, LIZ 120c, 8, STRAT157c.
9TRACKERS 168, 10, COLIN 170, 11,THE MACHINE 210c. 12,MALCOLM 200c.
13,SPOOK 172, 14,BIG BOB184c, 15,ZORBA 155c, 16, REMY 167c,
17 AMERICAN PSYCHO 175c 18 SHASTA 161c, 19RONTHEPOM 171c 20 PHAEDRUS 160.
21SHREWDY 169, 22 BERMUDA 149, 23 MORV 183c, 24 COALIE 188c
25 DIGGER 173c, 26 blank, 27 NITA 181c, 28 SUMMER NED 193c.
29 QOH 179c, 30 WK6332 225c 31 BALANCE $10-60 32 KS 162,
33 TOK3N 145c, 34 SHANE M 162.5c, 35CORRAN 156c, 36 MICK100 300c.
37 DSURF 154c, 38 SKEET 185c,39 MIBO 177c, 40 JAY 162c,
41 ZACMAN 187c, 42 GAMBLER33 115c, 43 ANUBUS144c, 44 BRUCETO9 164c.
45 romer 163c.46 HOOP 147c 47 RABBI 148c 48 ROTWEILLER 153c,
49 MINGEATHINAIOOS 150c,50 MANXMAN 195c, 51 MACDUFFY 146c, 52 BLOCKHEAD 198c,
53 777 226c,54 SWISSBOY 174c,55 AIRDALE166,56 CLIPS 178c,
57 PADDIE 196c,58 FOODEE 176, 59 BK152c,60 MPC182c,
61 STEVE 151,62 ONTHEMONEY 143, 63 LION 186, 64,TIM23 189c,
65 BOB C 190 66 RIF RAF 191c 67, OUT TO LUNCH 194 68 SEHNSUCHT888 192c,
69 PIETRADE 220c,70 ZAC 197c, 71,CAM 245C,72, CHALICE 214c,

[OutToLunch]

actually I quite like the fact they might still be drilling Momoho at the time of expiry options-cant see how the excitement of this will detract from the sp.

Good point -- the share price almost always climbs ahead of a drilling result, so whether or not Momoho comes in with the goods we are likely to see the shares climb in value in anticipation, especially in this case with expectations of a strike so high. Perhaps it would be better this way -- a duster at Momoho in late June wouldn't be great for the conversion of milions of options, even if it was just a short term downwards blip. It's the timing of that blip that could be a problem, so perhaps NZO are better off to have the result come in after June 30, just in case.

Better than watching a soapie!

[Nitaa]

digger - There is a huge incentive for the operator to minimise the "published" reserves. In the year the reserves are announced (for Ausi companies) a tax liability is created that is recorded in the P& L as "tax" that would be paid on ALL the reserves. The tax is not paid however until the stuff is pumped. Recognising the real reserves would severely limit NPAT, EPS & PE & SP. So I think tah was why the "water content" was forecast to increase so strongly. I expect the "water content" will be forecast to increase every year limiting the tax recordable for the current year.Excellent post