NZ Oil & Gas (NZO)

[COLIN]

Good point -- the share price almost always climbs ahead of a drilling result, so whether or not Momoho comes in with the goods we are likely to see the shares climb in value in anticipation, especially in this case with expectations of a strike so high. Perhaps it would be better this way -- a duster at Momoho in late June wouldn't be great for the conversion of milions of options, even if it was just a short term downwards blip. It's the timing of that blip that could be a problem, so perhaps NZO are better off to have the result come in after June 30, just in case.



I agree entirely.
And an early breakthrough to the coal at Pike would also add to the excitement.

[Nitaa]

[QUOTE=duncan macgregor;197114][QUOTE=duncan macgregor;196964][QUOTE=duncan macgregor;196625][QUOTE=duncan macgregor;196495] Getting closer with only two months left to enter if you are not already in.Is this a protest vote by Macdunk? It looks like you have purposely filtered out Nita's selection in your spreadsheet. Its a conspiracy and something I will never forgive you for if my pick was correct but you elect to keep me our of the comp. If thats the way you want to play it then the glory of winning this comp has now losts its shine. The is more corrupt that a Bush administration.

[duncan macgregor]

Good point -- the share price almost always climbs ahead of a drilling result, so whether or not Momoho comes in with the goods we are likely to see the shares climb in value in anticipation, especially in this case with expectations of a strike so high. Perhaps it would be better this way -- a duster at Momoho in late June wouldn't be great for the conversion of milions of options, even if it was just a short term downwards blip. It's the timing of that blip that could be a problem, so perhaps NZO are better off to have the result come in after June 30, just in case.

Better than watching a soapie! You are destined to have a downwards sp blip regardless, at option conversion time. convesion requires people to find new money to convert, who by and large are NZO shareholders of the heads at the moment.
Most people will have to sell something, which includes existing share holdings in NZO, and other companies. Fundamentalist brain dead thinking dictates that they will hang on to their losing shares, and sell their uptrending shares to do this. There will be a sell off at conversion time regardless of the trend.
I base this reasoning on those people who average down on downtrending shares saying that they have lost nothing until they sell.
On top of all that there is bad news about to come out of America which will lower prices across the board in our market. $1-59 will be the winning pick. Macdunk

[Nitaa]

Apology there macdunk. After carefully going through the selection, on the 18 time i managed to see my pick. All is forgiven. Good ol Nita will not hold up the crucifix next time i see you

[duncan macgregor]

[QUOTE=duncan macgregor;197293][QUOTE=duncan macgregor;197114][QUOTE=duncan macgregor;196964][QUOTE=duncan macgregor;196625]Is this a protest vote by Macdunk? It looks like you have purposely filtered out Nita's selection in your spreadsheet. Its a conspiracy and something I will never forgive you for if my pick was correct but you elect to keep me our of the comp. If thats the way you want to play it then the glory of winning this comp has now losts its shine. The is more corrupt that a Bush administration.NITA, you silly old BROAD you are listed at number 27 in the competition. You owe me a double if you ever get out the cupboard and come to one of our meetings. Macdunk

[ronthepom]

[QUOTE=duncan macgregor;197293][QUOTE=duncan macgregor;197114][QUOTE=duncan macgregor;196964][QUOTE=duncan macgregor;196625]Is this a protest vote by Macdunk? It looks like you have purposely filtered out Nita's selection in your spreadsheet. Its a conspiracy and something I will never forgive you for if my pick was correct but you elect to keep me our of the comp. If thats the way you want to play it then the glory of winning this comp has now losts its shine. The is more corrupt that a Bush administration.

Have another look Nita you are there, no 27.

[bk]

interesting disconnect between NZO ($1.55) and NZOOD ($0.11) at the moment

and again a decent volume in the options - either someone is building a stake, or the gamblers are moving in. I have my money ready for the conversion, but that leaves me with no extra cash to buy more oppies - which WILL be in the money come 30/6

[bermuda]

actually I quite like the fact they might still be drilling Momoho at the time of expiry options-cant see how the excitement of this will detract from the sp. There will almost certainly be hydrocarbons there and surely a high chance will have been detected by 30th june .

Tapis oil price is holding up well at $124 us and nz dollar is falling nicely and likely to continue falling this year.

My further reading of yesterdays quarterly report and chris-see yesterdays postings by me - indicate nzo net s profits for 12 months ending 30 th june -counting the increase in value of prc could be a lot more than the 50 cent s per share-I have previously posted-maybe as much as 80 cents giving a p/e ratio of 2 to 1 .

Bermuda- can you explain if you mean the options will be worth $1.49 or do you think they will be valueless . In either case are you in the market to buy more?

The shareprice will be $1.49 on 30 June and the options worthless. I have seen this happen so many times before as the countdown begins to option conversion. The amount of money to be raised is massive and in todays market it will be difficult to raise. As before shareholders will sell down the Heads to pay for the options and thus the sp will be under pressure...

Dont get me wrong. NZO has stardom written all over it and yes a really positive statement on a uncompleted Momoho drill could really prove me wrong...but I am sticking with $1.49.

I would like to buy more Heads but I have got excited about these Coal Seam Gas plays in Queensland which offer better leverage. See BOW, PES, RPM, and VPE. Read the QGC file for a full background. And check out today's announcement by Origin!
All linked to the export of Queensland Coal Seam Gas into the Singapore LNG hub.

But dont worry, there is a lot of upside coming for NZO which I am looking forward to.These options need to be sorted first.

[duncan macgregor]

BERMUDA, I take it then you think the parcel will be found to be empty then?. I was hoping the sp would get in the mid $1-70ties then retrace to $1-59 when the sell off starts. Looks like it wont happen with bad news about to come out of septic tank land. Macdunk

[The Plunger]

AWE Quarterly out. Tui reserves re-assessment due this quarter (June) - again may be too late for the options.

[bermuda]

BERMUDA, I take it then you think the parcel will be found to be empty then?. I was hoping the sp would get in the mid $1-70ties then retrace to $1-59 when the sell off starts. Looks like it wont happen with bad news about to come out of septic tank land. Macdunk

As I said a couple of months ago this countdown will be just like watching an opera. Full of intrigue and hidden surprises. And it hasnt disappointed so far. Fascinating eh. Could also be compared to Selwyn Toogood's " It's in the Bag (parcel )!! "

But nevertheless, post June 30 th NZO goes up ...markedly....and so does Pike.

[The Plunger]

Check out the BG offer for Origin -- !!!

[bermuda]

Check out the BG offer for Origin -- !!!

Have sent you a PM on this . It is absolutely fantastic and will give Aussie oilers and Coal seam Gas players a real shakeup. Just beautiful!!!!

[The Plunger]

Have sent you a PM on this . It is absolutely fantastic and will give Aussie oilers and Coal seam Gas players a real shakeup. Just beautiful!!!!

Shopping season is open !! I'm amazed everyone's asleep on this one. BG is offering a 40% premium approx. $4 billion to buy up Origin. What are the implications of this ??? !!!

[tim23]

Nice little article in the dompost today following the quarterly yesterday; also often being mentioned in the Heralds daily ramble on the markets.

[Wilkins_Micawber]

Check out the BG offer for Origin -- !!!

Where can we "check it out"?

[Financially dependant]

Where can we "check it out"?

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aZ0lAQM_7wuo&refer=home

I found it here

[tim23]

article in The Australian today, have a look on-line - $14+ per share

[Lion]

Hey, is that you moving the market today Bermuda?!
Can't see any other reason for the NZO drop.
I admire your honesty, but hey, there's a time and a place to express it :rolleyes:

I wonder what the BG takeover offer for Origin might mean for NZOG. I would think BG might be quite interested in Kupe, isn't their biggest business importing LNG into the US?

A bit of takeover talk in Oz can't do any harm to NZO, anyway.

Hmm, option conversion is such a complicated business at the best of times, it's hard to predict what will happen, but it's even more tricky with so much going on in the next 2 months with NZO. I can agree with about seven points of view I think. The huge amount of cash required may not neccessarily be a big problem to a big enough player. Kupe is a pretty big prize, BG have deep pockets, that Kupe pipeline is 3 times as big as they need for intended use . . .

[zac]

AWE quarterley states that ' the result of the reserves review (Tui) is expected to be released during the current quarter'. Obviously the earlier the better for NZO if conversion of the oppies is to be encouraged.

[Crypto Crude]

Lets brake down how NZO could perform from here until option expiry date on 30th June...its still three full months to go....
options can pretty much only stay in the money on Fundamentals....
Key company drivers... Pike is one of them... its at all time highs on a very strong uptrend since mid march... Kupe willnot be a great driver in SP for the next three months, unless Oil and gas prices continue to strengthen...
Demand is expected to fall with existing market problems, but a sell off in oil prices would be short lived... its a double whammy....
In the past the upwards driving prices has been the downfall of the Oil price itself....
Over the last 3-4 years NZO hasnot been driven fundamentally, eg- its project portfolio.... The stock had been taken over by TA, and exit timing strategies, fed up market investors, rage, whatever, emotional attachments, which are gone now...
NZO is run by a new breed, including longer terms loyalists...
.... Short term players didnot give a toss about the company so they had no attachment to anything other than returns...
Options getting over the line is rested on Pike SP I believe... Ive always felt that the only reason why NZO was so discounted in the past was because of all the problems with Pike, delays, no news joe... it felt like The market was skeptical of the project...
The other company driver is oil prices...
and hopefully abit of Momoho speculation as market realises that this well is probably the highest chance of success out of any other NZO wells in history...
Tui production is in decline as we speak...
It will drop off very quick and Market idiots think these strong current revenues will continue for ever, or for longer...
Pike is going to be the new driver, and its barely got going...
I still believe Pike is risk... it will either be $3, or not much...
Ive taken on advice and I just dont personally understand the risks with Pike going bad, theres always a chance... I understand the returns side...
If Pike is pulled off this will explode...
Market risk could keep a lid on NZO... Also note that NZO has just had its most decisive Share price rise of all time...
NZO has not put on 60 cents per share quicker in its history than its last run... three and a half months for 60c...
Its understandable that profit taking is going on, TA and Mackdunks mates are taking over... sell they say....
AWE interpretted TUI reserves update not expected before expiry date...
Momoho results neither...
bullish on NZO get to $2... no brainer with Pike...
actually saying when it going to get there is another thing...
.... NZO would still get to $2 with a massive dilution through option conversion...
Its time for managment to start telling us where they would put these raised option funds, all 138million options * $1.50 of them...
so we can decide if we are interested in converting them...
Pass this message along...
perhaps start with paying off existing Debt facilities in full?...
:cool:
.^sc

[duncan macgregor]

Lets brake down how NZO could perform from here until option expiry date on 30th June...its still three full months to go.... The stock had been taken over by TA, and exit timing strategies, f
NZO is run by a new breed, including longer terms loyalists...
.... Short term players didnot give a toss about the company so they had no attachment to anything other than returns...
Tui production is in decline as we speak...
It will drop off very quick and Market idiots think these strong current revenues will continue for ever, or for longer...

Its understandable that profit taking is going on, TA and Mackdunks mates are taking over... sell they say....

.^sc SHREWDY, first mistake its only two months to go. second mistake is a stock gets taken over by investors with all sorts of strategies its not restricted to any one of them. You are right about revenues dropping off, its what they do with the profits going into the future that will count. Profit taking will increase in volume as people either sell the heads to convert the options or sell the options. I would think the sp should trend up in the very short term depending on the news coming out of America in a couple of days then drop back to the low $1-50ies at conversion. You are quite right in saying that i dont give a toss one way or another for any company. Macdunk

[zorba]

.
Shrew ...

For options, its two months to go, not three.

AWE says reserve upgrade "expected to be released during current quarter" ie before June 30.

Judging from the speed of previous Taranaki offshore exploration holes, wunz da rig is on station dey will drill to first Momoho target (at depth 2850m) in around 20-25 days.

Da big rigs go like da clappers.

So we could well (!) have some info on Momoho before June 30.

Second target (at 3150m) involves a sidekick from higher up hole --- then drill deviated sidetrack to test other side of fault, so results from this sidetrack maybe after June 30.

NZOG due to release update tomorrow on Kupe drilling completion progress, so we should get a steer on possible Momoho spud date.
.

[Phaedrus]

TA and Mackdunks mates are taking over... sell they say....

Taking over? Nah! How could they?

SC, you have to differentiate between TA and Macdunks mates. Users of his 30 day moving average would have been flicked out of NZO way back in mid March. They might say Sell, but take a look at the chart below. Ten (10!) technical indicators, and not a Sell signal in sight.

http://h1.ripway.com/Phaedrus/NZO430.gif



Over the last 3-4 years NZO..........had been taken over by TA, and exit timing strategies............which are gone now.........

Gone? Now? I think not!
Take a look at the chart above and you will see not one but 10 exit timing strategies! All just sitting waiting to be triggered - whenever that may be.

[digger]

.
Shrew ...

For options, its two months to go, not three.

AWE says reserve upgrade "expected to be released during current quarter" ie before June 30.

Judging from the speed of previous Taranaki offshore exploration holes, wunz da rig is on station dey will drill to first Momoho target (at depth 2850m) in around 20-25 days.

Da big rigs go like da clappers.

So we could well (!) have some info on Momoho before June 30.
.

Doubt it Zorba,we can not even get info from CFA and those drills are a lot more than 20 to 25 days in the past.
The sell off since the quartly is in IMHO from a lack of drill news from KUPE.Much was done and is known in this three month period that could have been reported on. I am aware that NZO has had a 60% lift during this quarter so profit taking is very likely playing some part,but the lack of news is the prime mover.

[friedegg]

isnt it funny that both prc and nzo have relatively the same market cap of 400 million today,so how much % does nzo hold again?

[blockhead]

31% and nearly time to start earning !

[fish]

nice to see the nz dollar steadily dropping-now in the sub 78 cent range .
Thought I had finished buying nzo yesterday but when I read on this thread about contact surging quickly sold a pile and used some of that to buy more heads at 154
With a p/e ratio of 2 to 1 its the steal of a lifetime knowing that sometime the sp will catch up with the fundamentals
I see bp and shell are making massive profits but running out of oil .It would be logical for shell to expand their activities over here. I will never forget When they took out fletcher energy 8 years ago for around $10 a share as I hadnt long bought into them for $3-30.
For some reason the nz sharebrokers and institutions have problems seeing the true value of energy shares.
It gives great buying opportunities if you move in time -and who knows when that will be so I dont like to procrastinate.

[Oiler]

nice to see the nz dollar steadily dropping-now in the sub 78 cent range .
Thought I had finished buying nzo yesterday but when I read on this thread about contact surging quickly sold a pile and used some of that to buy more heads at 154
With a p/e ratio of 2 to 1 its the steal of a lifetime knowing that sometime the sp will catch up with the fundamentals
I see bp and shell are making massive profits but running out of oil .It would be logical for shell to expand their activities over here. I will never forget When they took out fletcher energy 8 years ago for around $10 a share as I hadnt long bought into them for $3-30.
For some reason the nz sharebrokers and institutions have problems seeing the true value of energy shares.
It gives great buying opportunities if you move in time -and who knows when that will be so I dont like to procrastinate.

Fish

Interesting thoughts..
Dont tell everyone it is the steal of a lifetime :).......... WE long term supporters need to be buying up large as a loyalty reward for hanging in there.

The best is yet to come..

Oiler

[digger]

Tui production is in decline as we speak...
It will drop off very quick and Market idiots think these strong current revenues will continue for ever, or for longer... Shrewdy quote

Shrewdy have you been drinking with the students. TUI preformance as you put it can hardly sum up what is happening.TUI decline is a miniual of what was expected.Currently doing 44000 when about 16 thousand was expected.In fact even in absolute terms from only three wells TUI is very close to it's average production since startup. No it will not go on forever but the decline is incredably small.
No bad words about TUI.
Cheers

[Lion]

Here's another little piece of news to add to the mix before option expiry - - by the end of May we should have the final interpretation of the seismic data from Toke (NZOG interest 12.5%). Good results should mean a drill next year, and if there's oil there, it could be cheaply tied back to the Tui FPSO.

Digger, you're so right about Tui - it's quite amazing how the oil has just kept on flowing, I don't think most people realise what it means. I reckon it must imply a big reserves upgrade - wouldn't be surprised if your guess of 60m barrels total is too low.

Options - personally I don't care much if they are exercised or not. I still have the ones I got given, and if they expire worthless, well, the way I choose to see it, I haven't lost anything (i know many will disagree on that) So the downside is limited, while the upside is possibly huge. Until the last couple of days, guesses on the ST competition were averaging about 20c (weren't they? just guessing there) and they could well have gone to 50c.

If options are all or mostly exercised, there's $1.50 from each in the kitty, so I don't see there being much dilution effect - the company has got bigger. Oh, but what about the greater number of shares to divide money between for dividends, some people say? Well, won't the exercise money have been invested to make more profits?? Same argument applies.

I'm still a happy holder of heads and options.

[the machine]

Here's another little piece of news to add to the mix before option expiry - - by the end of May we should have the final interpretation of the seismic data from Toke (NZOG interest 12.5%). Good results should mean a drill next year, and if there's oil there, it could be cheaply tied back to the Tui FPSO.

Digger, you're so right about Tui - it's quite amazing how the oil has just kept on flowing, I don't think most people realise what it means. I reckon it must imply a big reserves upgrade - wouldn't be surprised if your guess of 60m barrels total is too low.

Options - personally I don't care much if they are exercised or not. I still have the ones I got given, and if they expire worthless, well, the way I choose to see it, I haven't lost anything (i know many will disagree on that) So the downside is limited, while the upside is possibly huge. Until the last couple of days, guesses on the ST competition were averaging about 20c (weren't they? just guessing there) and they could well have gone to 50c.

If options are all or mostly exercised, there's $1.50 from each in the kitty, so I don't see there being much dilution effect - the company has got bigger. Oh, but what about the greater number of shares to divide money between for dividends, some people say? Well, won't the exercise money have been invested to make more profits?? Same argument applies.

I'm still a happy holder of heads and options.



a oil discovery at toke would have its own fsop.

M

[friedegg]

so at todays closing prices pike is 47c worth of nzo,s $1.53,tui and kupe must be dead ducks

[Lion]

a oil discovery at toke would have its own fsop.

M

Yes, I'm sure you're right, machine. Toke looks to be about 20km from the Tui FPSO. The quote from the NZOG site is a bit unclear though.
"Any oil discoveries could potentially be developed by the same geosterring/subsea wellhead/FPSO development scheme as used successfully at Tui."

[Mingeathinaikos]

Big drop today - factoring in that PRC well up as well...Options only 3c in the money, and people are raving. Its been a great month for NZO with many more to come, but step back and take a good look before diving into the oppies - not all roses.

This company is an absolute cracker, but I still think that the party won't start until the pesky options are out of the way. $1.50 in the comp.

Disc : NZO

[Nitaa]

AWE quarterley states that ' the result of the reserves review (Tui) is expected to be released during the current quarter'. Obviously the earlier the better for NZO if conversion of the oppies is to be encouraged.Digger is very close the the mark i in all honesty i beleive the tru recoverable oil of tui will be in excess of 80mbo. This doesnt include any new possible tie in which i beleive also to be ods on. Here are th e2 main factors.

1/ tui CONTINUES to exceed expectation as far as production-water cut is concerned.

2/ Price of oil at over $100 means based on current and possible continued increase of oil prices, the drilling of commercially viable increases signigicantly.

Come back in 10 years in see how conservative my guesstimate is.

[Nitaa]

The sp drops, the sp rises..all in normal days trading. the long term investor doesnt give a toot even if the sp drops back to around $1.20. imo, my pick in dunkins comp of $1.81 i now believe is far too conservative. Dunkin.. can you change my pick to 1.99? cheers.

dont forget.. tui is only running on 3 cylinders.. they dont need 4 or more at the moment. Awe will increase the reserve by at least 20% before expiry. The tie ins for othe rprospects close to tui WILL happen over the course of its life time..easy money. On top of that...what are the chances of Origin or AWE buying options at present. Are other listed companys legally allowed to do that? If so then this is a possibility.

Kupe is going to be huge. it excites me far more than Pike ever will but the low key to Kupe is good for long term.

NZO will have most of the options converted... top 15 or top 20 here we go

[duncan macgregor]

[QUOTE=Nita;197513]The sp drops, the sp rises..all in normal days trading. the long term investor doesnt give a toot even if the sp drops back to around $1.20. imo, my pick in dunkins comp of $1.81 i now believe is far too conservative. Dunkin.. can you change my pick to 1.99? cheers.
/QUOTE] Definately not no changes made from now until the end of the competition. If you thought the sp would be that high you silly old dear you should have nutted it out and entered much later. macdunk

[duncan macgregor]

[QUOTE=duncan macgregor;197293]Competition to select NZO share price on conversion date June 30th
in the event of a tie the winner is the person with the correct score posting first
I will list you in posting order.
1,AMR 180c, 2, OILER 165c, 3,Macdunk 159c. 4,MATTYROO 158c.
5,SEAMUS 135c, 6,SERPIE 131c, 7, LIZ 120c, 8, STRAT157c.
9TRACKERS 168, 10, COLIN 170, 11,THE MACHINE 210c. 12,MALCOLM 200c.
13,SPOOK 172, 14,BIG BOB184c, 15,ZORBA 155c, 16, REMY 167c,
17 AMERICAN PSYCHO 175c 18 SHASTA 161c, 19RONTHEPOM 171c 20 PHAEDRUS 160.
21SHREWDY 169, 22 BERMUDA 149, 23 MORV 183c, 24 COALIE 188c
25 DIGGER 173c, 26 blank, 27 NITA 181c, 28 SUMMER NED 193c.
29 QOH 179c, 30 WK6332 225c 31 BALANCE $10-60 32 KS 162,
33 TOK3N 145c, 34 SHANE M 162.5c, 35CORRAN 156c, 36 MICK100 300c.
37 DSURF 154c, 38 SKEET 185c,39 MIBO 177c, 40 JAY 162c,
41 ZACMAN 187c, 42 GAMBLER33 115c, 43 ANUBUS144c, 44 BRUCETO9 164c.
45 romer 163c.46 HOOP 147c 47 RABBI 148c 48 ROTWEILLER 153c,
49 MINGEATHINAIOOS 150c,50 MANXMAN 195c, 51 MACDUFFY 146c, 52 BLOCKHEAD 198c,
53 777 226c,54 SWISSBOY 174c,55 AIRDALE166,56 CLIPS 178c,
57 PADDIE 196c,58 FOODEE 176, 59 BK152c,60 MPC182c,
61 STEVE 151,62 ONTHEMONEY 143, 63 LION 186, 64,TIM23 189c,
65 BOB C 190 66 RIF RAF 191c 67, OUT TO LUNCH 194 68 SEHNSUCHT888 192c,
69 PIETRADE 220c,70 ZAC 197c, 71,CAM 245C,72, CHALICE 214c,

[Nitaa]

[QUOTE=Nita;197513]The sp drops, the sp rises..all in normal days trading. the long term investor doesnt give a toot even if the sp drops back to around $1.20. imo, my pick in dunkins comp of $1.81 i now believe is far too conservative. Dunkin.. can you change my pick to 1.99? cheers.
/QUOTE] Definately not no changes made from now until the end of the competition. If you thought the sp would be that high you silly old dear you should have nutted it out and entered much later. macdunkI am delighted to accept your rules and conditions so no problem there guy.

As time comes closer the the mark there dunkin, ones assessment, judgment can be more accurate. My views and upgrade on the sp is going to be in line with AWE who will upgrade tui as well. Give me 5 months down the track and and my assessment will be diferent than what is is today. If you beleive that 1 + 1 always equal to 2 then i take it you werent always the smartest cookie in the jar.

any.. respect on your decision to make a stand which is good. i like that.

[blockhead]

Got to wonder why price is drifting don't you ??

Tui still ahead of expectations
Pan Pacific Petroleum says strong cash flows from the Tui field put it in a position to consider further growth opportunities
1 May 2008
The Tui oil field is proving to be quite a gusher, with production now averaging approximately 45,000 barrels a day.

Pan Pacific Petroleum says more than four million barrels were pumped from Tui in the March quarter. Production is still exceeding expectations and the company is now reassessing the size of the reserve.

An additional development well is scheduled to be drilled towards the end of next year.

Pan Pacific Petroleum has a 10 percent interest in the Tui field. It says strong cash flows from the project have put the in an excellent position to consider further growth opportunities.



>> More Business News
© 2008 NZCity, NewsTalkZB

[duncan macgregor]

BLOCKHEAD, Its quite easy to see why. The shareholders have their affordable quotta of shares and options. The price must stagnate simply because people who might have been buyers, sit on the sidelines waiting to convert the options. Other people are selling heads to convert options. Then we have the people who cant afford to convert selling down on options. The investors have to find a lot more new money in the next couple of months which makes for a share price that is being held back.
Then we have people like me who expect the market in general to downtrend keeping their money out of the market. The price has to struggle up to conversion date then will find its own level. Macdunk

[BigBob]

Got to wonder why price is drifting don't you ??

It's drifting because of uncertainty re Momoho results by end of June, because people were expecting TUI upgrade news as part of the quarterly, because PRC is not yet producing and the coal contract price is not yet known, because the POO is drifting and because the direction of the DOW is uncertain.... still a lot of time until the end of June... JMHO, of course....

[zorba]

.
BB

Read the PRC Quarterly Report re coking coal prices ......

Z

[tim23]

Price pullback after a pretty healthy run; I think Duncns summary is about right.

[tim23]

I must be going blind can't see it? can you post link?

[tim23]

PS Found in 29/4/08 edition and that tonights??

[fish]

Price pullback after a pretty healthy run; I think Duncns summary is about right.

Duncans summary is only part of the picture and I wouldnt bet on the price stagnating .
There are so many factors at play here
eg the oil price-the price of the heads has certainly been influenced in the last few days by a drop in the oil price plus exchange rate bouncing .
The longer tapis price stays above 120 the stronger will be the sp .
There are a lot of new buyers into nzo and nzood -and this is likely to escalate as publicity about the nzx s highest p/e rated share ever spreads .
In my own case the jump in the cen price yesterday has enabled me to make 2 big sales so i probably will no longer need to sell heads to convert options . I truly believe the cen share price is unlikely to rise much further whilst nzo may double in the next 12 months .
Then we have the official upgrade of tui in june-and this will hit national headlines.
And of course the thrill of the drill.
NZO seem pretty certain the options will be converted and seem to be looking forward to putting the money to maximise return-so they must believe the head price will be well above 150 by end june
You have to be in to win-or you could just watch on the sidelines and miss out-duncan has already missed out on a lot of nzo s gains .

[tim23]

Good points; I personally think the options will be converted and think the share price will bounce back over $1.60 soonish

[COLIN]

Fish - I also share your optimism. I think what has been happening over the last few days is that a number of holders of the head shares have made solid gains from the upward surge in the sp and they have suddenly seen the options come into the money and have decided to sell a few of those heads to buy options, for greater leverage - expecting to be able to sell those options again before conversion date. But as soon as there was a bit of a reversal in the sp they have seen that leverage factor working against them over the past couple of days, have panicked, and have sold off options at whatever price they could get. I think (hope) that these weak holders will soon be shaken out, and the "normal" buying balance will soon outweigh the depressing effects of this temporary aberration.
For myself, if I had to get my hands on cash to take up the options I would sooner ransack the cupboard and sell off other shares rather than reduce my stake in NZO, given all the positives. (The cupboard could probably do with a good spring clean anyway.)

I'm perfectly comfortable with my $1-70 slot in Duncan's competition.

[the machine]

expect some positive news early next week when the 12m barrels is pumped = 1.5m barrels for nzo. hopefully will come with an amended production forecast to june 30.

M

[corsairx]

I think that early next week is extremely optimistic. I wouldnt be surprised if we dont get any update for 3-4 weeks

[dsurf]

The NZ herald has again ignored NZO & PRC - read the article below from todays herald & see that Sanford is the second best performing stock in NZ up 12.3% for the year.

you can email Liam dunn via a link at the bottom of the story on the herald website or this link may work

http://dynamic.nzherald.co.nz/feedback/author/index.cfm?a_id=106&objectid=10507452

We all are responsible for the BS treatment that the media give these stocks just because they do not understand them


TOP STOCKS
Even before Wednesday's spike Contact had already powered its way to the top of the list of the year's best performing stocks.

No doubt that at $7.13 on January 22 it was grossly undervalued. After the credit crunch-fuelled global slump it wasn't alone. But because of a dry summer, which put pressure on hydro lake levels and pushed power prices up, it staged a much stronger comeback than peers such as Fletcher Building.

It had put on 11.5 per cent to $9.38 prior to the BG news.

Second best performer this year has been fishing company Sanford - up 12.3 per cent. It has surged in the past week on hopes that the New Zealand dollar may be on its way down.

AMP is third on the list - up 7 per cent. The Warehouse is up 6.5 per cent.

Mainfreight is up 2.8 per cent and GPG rounds out the all-too-short list of stocks in positive territory, up 0.5 per cent.

[duncan macgregor]

The NZ herald has again ignored NZO & PRC - read the article below from todays herald & see that Sanford is the second best performing stock in NZ up 12.3% for the year.

you can email Liam dunn via a link at the bottom of the story on the herald website or this link may work

http://dynamic.nzherald.co.nz/feedback/author/index.cfm?a_id=106&objectid=10507452

We all are responsible for the BS treatment that the media give these stocks just because they do not understand them
The big question is DO YOU UNDERSTAND IT?. You sound like a religeous nutter who thinks you are all doomed except me and my kind, because our way is the only way.
Who cares?, its only a bloody company that has risen about 15%, and paid a 5c dividend from its high of three and a half years ago. When you look at it like that in the harsh light of reality, it has a long way to go to before it gets hailed as an all time great. Look on it as a good prospect nothing more, nothing less, and if it fails to meet your expectations dump it, and move on.
I myself think that PPP over the next two months is a better prospect. They dont have the down effect of options to overcome, its only blue sky in front of them. BERMUDA summed it up perfectly in an earlier post when he described why the sp will hover round the $1-49 mark to $1-50 mark at conversion. Macdunk

[Lion]

Indeed dsurf! I'll email him.

NZO up 32.17% this calendar year (not counting div)
CEN up 15.05%
PRC up 25.8% (to be fair, he may be counting only top 50)

[zacman]

Is his name Liam Dunn or Iam Dum

zacman

[duncan macgregor]

Thanks MPC I fully agree

Latest update

Rabbi 1.5c

Dsurf 6.5c

McDunck 9c Scotch (1000 year old?)

Zorba 14.5c

Tim23 15c

Brucey09 17.6c Sauza Tequila Gold (never seen it but sounds goooood)

PieTrade 22c + MPC 22c

BobC 23c + Digger 23c

Trackers 24c

Digger 27c

Chippie 28c

QOH 30c

Out To Lunch 35c

Malcolm 46c

Just to reiterate the rules, closing date Monday 5th 12pm

Only first pick at each price qualifies for prize. Keeping you honest SPOOK closing date on monday. My bottle of SCOTCH make it a nice big one forget about the thousand years old bit. Macdunk

[trackers]

Good call Dsurf, have sent in an email also... Received a very nice reply back from Liam so thats all good!

[Lion]

I got a prompt reply with an apology and said he'd correct it.
Said he'd relied on Bloomberg who didn't mention NZO.
Fair enough, honest mistake, I'm happy.

P.S. But no mention of just who was Number One. Ah well!

[spook]

"Keeping you honest SPOOK closing date on monday. My bottle of SCOTCH make it a nice big one forget about the thousand years old bit. Macdunk"

I wasn't referring to the Scotch Macdunk:D

[duncan macgregor]

"Keeping you honest SPOOK closing date on monday. My bottle of SCOTCH make it a nice big one forget about the thousand years old bit. Macdunk"

I wasn't referring to the Scotch Macdunk:D At least i am not a grumpy old cogger that complains to the papers all the time. Incidently i take it the entries end on monday selecting for conversion price on june 30th. Macdunk

[spook]

Here is an update on the picks. Please let me know (politely) if I have missed your pick out.

Remember closes Monday night, and only one prize to the first person on the winning number!


Rabbi 1.5c

Rif-Raf 5.7c

Dsurf 6.5c

McDunck 9c Scotch (1000 year old?)

Zorba 14.5c

Tim23 15c

Brucey09 17.6c Sauza Tequila Gold (never seen it but sounds goooood)

PieTrade 22c

BobC 23c

Trackers + MPC + Upside Umop 24c

Digger 27c

Chippie 28c

QOH 30c

Out To Lunch 35c

Malcolm 46c

P.S. With options in decimals I will take the closest pick to actual number,
within .5 cent either side of final amount

[zorba]

.
Good one Spook .....

Thank the the good Lord we have an alternative to that imposter's psy-klunk-otic ramblings and perverted denegrations of NOG's excellent progress.

Why on earth does this syko keep posting on this thread when he has no NZO shares.

He must be clean outa his skull.

Z

[777]

Spook can you put me down at 13c please.

[OutToLunch]

I got a prompt reply with an apology and said he'd correct it.
Said he'd relied on Bloomberg who didn't mention NZO.
Fair enough, honest mistake, I'm happy.

P.S. But no mention of just who was Number One. Ah well!

More proof that journos here don't do anything called 'journalism' any more -- they just cut and paste from other sources and usually don't bother to check for accuracy. This is why we only get court reports and police stories in the news these days; it's all easy, cut-and-paste stuff with no journalistic input required.

Perhaps we need NZO management to don tiger slippers and walk around Wainuiomata -- that 'news' would hit the front pages for sure! :eek:

[rotweiller]

Spook,
7 cents for me please
Cheers

[dsurf]

Macd - I understand that you are a moron

[tim23]

Duncan - once again you prove your Maths is pathetic or even brain dead? 15% get real its double that and some (the divy as you rightly point out)
Get over yourself, dsurf was spot on!

[Lion]

Spook, can I have 25 please.
P.S.1 I worked out the average so far is close to 19c

Duncan, maybe it's time for another holiday - away from a computer again.
P.S.2 I must have too much spare time today, working out averages and then baiting McDunk, they are both so easy!

[duncan macgregor]

Duncan - once again you prove your Maths is pathetic or even brain dead? 15% get real its double that and some (the divy as you rightly point out)
Get over yourself, dsurf was spot on! TIM sorry mate but NZO was about $1-30 three and a half years ago or roughly 15% below todays price. Thought you would like to know that. Macdunk

[bk]

Spook,
12 cents for me please
Cheers

[clips]

put me down for 17c thanks
..can you still get waitemata, used to buy it by the crate....

[KS]

Spook,
11.5c for me please.
Thanks

[spook]

Time for another update, & MacDunk the winner is judged at close of market on June 20th, as obviously they will have no value after June 30th

Rabbi 1.5c

Rif-Raf 5.7c

Dsurf 6.5c

Rotweiler 7c

McDunck 9c Scotch (1000 year old?)

KS 11.5c

bk 12c

777 13c

Zorba 14.5c

Tim23 15c

clips 17c (They stopped producing Waitemata- too many ships discharging in the harbour now)

Brucey09 17.6c Sauza Tequila Gold (never seen it but sounds goooood)

PieTrade 22c

BobC 23c

Trackers + MPC + Upside Umop 24c

Lion 25c

Digger 27c

Chippie 28c

QOH 30c

Out To Lunch 35c

Malcolm 46c

[777]

Spook I hope you mean close of market on the 30th not the 20th.

[spook]

Spook I hope you mean close of market on the 30th not the 20th.

No the 20th, correct me if I've got it wrong, but I assume they will have nil value at close on the 30th

[mibo]

Put me down for 21c thanks Spook

[777]

Spook I think they will trade right up to a day or so before that. Possibly the 27th.

However the 20th I can live with but does seem a bit early.

[spook]

Spook I think they will trade right up to a day or so before that. Possibly the 27th.

However the 20th I can live with but does seem a bit early.


I imagine they will be very volatile in the last week, with everyone trying to offload or convert b4 closing day. Just an arbitrary date to make it easier for you guys to guess a figure

[777]

A buyer in for 500,000 options at 10c. A significant amount.

[airedale]

Hi Spooky, put me down for 16 cents, please.

[Rabbi]

The options are now not so risky if you have the money to convert them. At the moment they are at a premium to the head shares as they provide far superior leverage for traders. Once all the traders are out it might be a different story, with options dumped right left and center. A lot of people are going to have to sell their head shares, or other shares, to convert the options, otherwise they should sell them now while the goings good. All the information as to what is happening over the next two months has been divulged, and with a MoHomo drill result looking increasingly unlikely before 30th June, this level of interest in the options seems to me somewhat irrational.

[Mick100]

All the information as to what is happening over the next two months has been divulged, and with a MoHomo drill result looking increasingly unlikely before 30th June, this level of interest in the options seems to me somewhat irrational.

Your forgetting two factors that could have a huge influence on shareprice over the next couple of months;
- price of oil
- general market sentiment

It's anyones guess where the price of oil is going but in my opinion it's more likely to be above $125 than below $100 in two months time

NZO's shareprice has been increasing steadily thoughout recent bear market conditions - what's going to happen to NZO shareprice when market sentiment turns positive as appears to be happening at this moment - it could go ballistic!
,

[tim23]

Duncan - odd reply as I expected, my turn to be selective

$1.60 plus 5c value of free options plus 5 dividend $1.70 that ignores 1:10 & PRC issues thats 31% above $1.30, that fine by me!

[fish]

Your forgetting two factors that could have a huge influence on shareprice over the next couple of months;
- price of oil
- general market sentiment


NZO's shareprice has been increasing steadily thoughout recent bear market conditions - what's going to happen to NZO shareprice when market sentiment turns positive as appears to be happening at this moment - it could go ballistic!
,

You have neglected the most important factor-NZO has the best p/e ratio and prospects of any nz stock . It takes time for this to become known and then a lot of further delay due to inertia of the average buyer .
Agree with you fully that nzood options could go ballistic-it is quite on the cards that the heads could be valued at $2 in the next 8 weeks . A falling nz dollar would help nzo more than any other nz company and many of us would value nzo already at well over $2 .Buy options at 10 cents now and they could easily be worth 50 cents . So the buyer of 500000 spends $50000-if the head share rises 25% approx he makes 500% profit in 8 weeks .
This kind of money is chicken feed for some of the institutional buyers who are waking up to nzo-they could easily push the head price well over $2.
At $2 they will have a p/e ratio of 3 to 1 and I certainly wont be selling so far under the true value of nzo .
The game is only just beginning and you need to be in to win .

[Wilkins_Micawber]

You have neglected the most important factor-NZO has the best p/e ratio and prospects of any nz stock . It takes time for this to become known and then a lot of further delay due to inertia of the average buyer .
Agree with you fully that nzood options could go ballistic-it is quite on the cards that the heads could be valued at $2 in the next 8 weeks . A falling nz dollar would help nzo more than any other nz company and many of us would value nzo already at well over $2 .Buy options at 10 cents now and they could easily be worth 50 cents . So the buyer of 500000 spends $50000-if the head share rises 25% approx he makes 500% profit in 8 weeks .
This kind of money is chicken feed for some of the institutional buyers who are waking up to nzo-they could easily push the head price well over $2.
At $2 they will have a p/e ratio of 3 to 1 and I certainly wont be selling so far under the true value of nzo .
The game is only just beginning and you need to be in to win .

And don't forget what must be a very good likelihood of a significant upgrade of TUI reserves before 30th June :):):)

[duncan macgregor]

Duncan - odd reply as I expected, my turn to be selective

$1.60 plus 5c value of free options plus 5 dividend $1.70 that ignores 1:10 & PRC issues thats 31% above $1.30, that fine by me! TIM odd person odd reply. I sold my options at 9c bought PPP at 11c sold PPP at 21c then moved offshore. Regardless off what i did offshore the exchange rate gives me a 9% gain. If i had have been silly enough to leave the money in NZ in PPP or in NZO i would probabley be bleating on how good a company it is. Macdunk

[friedegg]

can these competitions go anywhere else sick of getting in from work and having a look at 3 pages of competition crap

[Mingeathinaikos]

can these competitions go anywhere else sick of getting in from work and having a look at 3 pages of competition crap

Agree entirely! Start another thread. And why don't Tim & Duncan do the same.

[zorba]

.
Frying pan,

You r ded rite, McKlunks hopeless attempts to ingr8tiate himself with geuine Noggers is so pirthetic it wants to make me throw up big-time. Wot a complete BS artiste of the very wurst kind.

Z

[POSSUM THE CAT]

Zorba & Mingeathinaikos maybe you only want yes men or rampers on this thread. they are just pointing out the truth. But in your research you only seem to want to deal with the last 3 months

[friedegg]

Zorba & Mingeathinaikos maybe you only want yes men or rampers on this thread. they are just pointing out the truth. But in your research you only seem to want to deal with the last 3 months
i think thats because theres buggar all negatives to point at nzo in the last 8 -12 months and its such a change around from the pricks a while back

[zorba]

Zorba & Mingeathinaikos maybe you only want yes men or rampers on this thread. they are just pointing out the truth. But in your research you only seem to want to deal with the last 3 months

Hy Poes Kat, jy is moes poes dronk,

If you have such a clever kop, give us your detailed analysis as to why NZOG is not living up to its potential, or why its due to cr.ap out, or why in your esteemed and illustrious opinion, what is it exactly you find so detrimental about the company ????

After all, in the last cupla years, and looking towards the next cupla years, tell us o wise and fabulous poster, what fanstastic insights can you bring to this thread.

Prithy tell us, since you are so bloated with your swollen poes kat knowledge, tell us where to put the hard earned investment dollar ??

[Ripping]

can these competitions go anywhere else sick of getting in from work and having a look at 3 pages of competition crap

hear hear....

[tim23]

Duncan - your reply confirmed your brain dead status - I don't care about what you did with PPP or other selected punts - my point was that NOG has been just fine, get over it, NOG does exist and much to your disappointment will keep doing well, your days of down ramping are simply over...

[tim23]

PS Duncan - I challenge you to come clean - what has NOG done to you and be honest it must be something cos no body has got such a beef as you against any company I know of on the entire sharetrader forum?

[Mingeathinaikos]

Zorba & Mingeathinaikos maybe you only want yes men or rampers on this thread. they are just pointing out the truth. But in your research you only seem to want to deal with the last 3 months

Possum, you are talking $hite...
Both myself and Zorba have been relatively bullish on NZO for along time, and I at least am a holder of NZO. All i am after on this site is sensible discussion.

There is just no value in posting all the comp replys in the main thread.
Its got nothing to do with 'rampers and yes men' as you randomly mention... get your hand off it.

[duncan macgregor]

[QUOTE=duncan macgregor;197516][QUOTE=duncan macgregor;197293]Competition to select NZO share price on conversion date June 30th
in the event of a tie the winner is the person with the correct score posting first
I will list you in posting order.
1,AMR 180c, 2, OILER 165c, 3,Macdunk 159c. 4,MATTYROO 158c.
5,SEAMUS 135c, 6,SERPIE 131c, 7, LIZ 120c, 8, STRAT157c.
9TRACKERS 168, 10, COLIN 170, 11,THE MACHINE 210c. 12,MALCOLM 200c.
13,SPOOK 172, 14,BIG BOB184c, 15,ZORBA 155c, 16, REMY 167c,
17 AMERICAN PSYCHO 175c 18 SHASTA 161c, 19RONTHEPOM 171c 20 PHAEDRUS 160.
21SHREWDY 169, 22 BERMUDA 149, 23 MORV 183c, 24 COALIE 188c
25 DIGGER 173c, 26 blank, 27 NITA 181c, 28 SUMMER NED 193c.
29 QOH 179c, 30 WK6332 225c 31 BALANCE $10-60 32 KS 162,
33 TOK3N 145c, 34 SHANE M 162.5c, 35CORRAN 156c, 36 MICK100 300c.
37 DSURF 154c, 38 SKEET 185c,39 MIBO 177c, 40 JAY 162c,
41 ZACMAN 187c, 42 GAMBLER33 115c, 43 ANUBUS144c, 44 BRUCETO9 164c.
45 romer 163c.46 HOOP 147c 47 RABBI 148c 48 ROTWEILLER 153c,
49 MINGEATHINAIOOS 150c,50 MANXMAN 195c, 51 MACDUFFY 146c, 52 BLOCKHEAD 198c,
53 777 226c,54 SWISSBOY 174c,55 AIRDALE166,56 CLIPS 178c,
57 PADDIE 196c,58 FOODEE 176, 59 BK152c,60 MPC182c,
61 STEVE 151,62 ONTHEMONEY 143, 63 LION 186, 64,TIM23 189c,
65 BOB C 190 66 RIF RAF 191c 67, OUT TO LUNCH 194 68 SEHNSUCHT888 192c,
69 PIETRADE 220c,70 ZAC 197c, 71,CAM 245C,72, CHALICE 214c,
73 GLENDOONIE 142c

[digger]

[QUOTE=duncan macgregor;197516] I will only move the competition forward to keep it im the last three pages.

Agree DM,that should keep it alive without dominating the daily pages.When i win at 173 am simply going to take the wife out to dinner and buy her that 100 dollar wine.And by the way Montana now tell me they no longer sell direct to the public so the winner if by some unexpected turn of events is other than myself will have to name the wine required.
Also on another subject,i would like to congradulate fridays big buyer in waiting out the market and flushing out more cheap sellers. Fancy selling a stock that has a PE of between 2 and 3. Maybe that should not read sell but virtually giveaway. DM what do you put that down to??

[duncan macgregor]

Thanks for your generous support digger, but 159 will be the winner. On the other question of why did someone take advantage of a situation is easier to explain. If you take all the money from all the people, and hand it back to everybody in equal proportions, the end result would be the same. The rich people would end up rich and the poor people would end up poor.
Its like that in the market where the quick and nimble of mind will always beat a plodder. If you are a slow mover, expect to be caught out more often than someone prepared to drop the lot and make a run for it. NZO must stagnate slightly above conversion level simply because of all that extra new money required to convert the options. My guess is anywhere between $1-49 and $1-60 at conversion date, then after that look for a more honest level that reflects fundamentals. Macdunk

[tim23]

More self serving dribble

[zac]

It is disappointing that McD's stunt is not a 'competition' at all but a 'raffle' where each participant gets to buy a numbered ticket. If it had been a genuine competition where each entrant were to pick a share price of choice (allowing duplications) we would have been able to assess the collective wisdom of traders by seeing how far the statistical mean varies from the actual price.

[tim23]

Noted in Dompost today NOG in top 10 turnover $ for the week, 1st time I can recall that?

[tim23]

Good rap in the Headliner today front page news!

[fish]

Good rap in the Headliner today front page news!

Can you cut and paste this please Tim
All this news plus the stellAR PERFORMANCE OF TUI AND PRC and the fact that nzo will be in the top 20 on july 1st means that nzo shares and options are going to be in hot demand in the next 2 months . The rerating of tui reserves and momoho drill will give a further boost .
Duncans assessment that nzo will stagnate in the next 2 months is blatantly untrue as shown in the massive volume in nzo last week as well as its rapid sp rise followed by a bit of profit taking and now likely to commence a stellar rise .Having invested in the sharemarket for over 20 years never before have I felt there is such a strong possibility that this rise could be phenomenal and quick . It is likely that there are a lot of institutions that dont hold nzo that will feel the need to get in before they miss the boat

[tim23]

Sorry can't got it in the post! But the headline was "Sweet Crude" for NZ Oil and Gas with one comment in the story "Given these market forces we see NZOG as one of the best market prospects for 2008-2009"

[winner69]

Can you cut and paste this please Tim


I'm sure Warren Head wouldn't mind if you went to his website and sibscribed to the Headliner
http://www.headliner.co.nz/

[fish]

I'm sure Warren Head wouldn't mind if you went to his website and sibscribed to the Headliner
http://www.headliner.co.nz/

Thanks but dont believe in "sibscribing " to any financial /investment advisers . Just like to assess the quality of info and its recommendations/likely impact .
I wonder if anyone subscribes online and could post the article ?
cheers

[tim23]

In my experience The Headliners calls are ok but nothing like the "A" letter of the 1980s which was a tip sheet as such, The Headliner seems well researched and has stood the test of time. They also like PRC this issue.

[airedale]

Hi Fish, you don't need to subscribe/sibscribe..... to Headliner, just go to Paper Plus or Whitcoulls and buy a copy.

[fish]

Thanks airdale but nearest is 60k away and closed.
Was hoping someone might post it so that we could all have a read

[fish]

Shell shuts more Nigerian production
Flat online jobs growth in April 12:56 PM


LAGOS -- Royal Dutch Shell shut down more of its production in Nigeria after a fresh militant attack on a flowstation in the restive Niger Delta, where local militants have stepped up a campaign of violence.

The bombing of the Shell facilities in Nigeria's southern Bayelsa state, the fifth militant attack in just over a month, came a day after a federal court ruled that one of the leaders of the rebel Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta (MEND), Henry Okah, should be tried in secret.

The ruling prompted a threat of reprisals from MEND, which has already knocked 164,000 barrels a day off Shell's production in Nigeria with a pipeline bombing last month.

"A few oil delivery lines are affected and some oil has spilled into the environment," a Shell spokesman said. "We are mobilising containment booms to stop the spread of oil and have also shut in some production volumes

[Glendoonie]

I will only move the competition forward to keep it im the last three pages.

May I have 142 please? It's just a crap shoot after all :) All NZO holders will be in the money before the year is oot.

[the machine]

looking back at last 3 months in a bear market and when oil is generally lowest in the 12 month cycle, nzo has done outstanding well

ahead lays the beginning of the higher 12 month cycle - usa driving season [if they can afford it], the hurricane season starts in a month [usa not hit with a major hurricane for 2 years] and of course in 6 months the lead into winter up that ways.

all of these factors contribute to the oil price.

if the bear market has bottomed out? [asx 200 up 3% in april] then coupled with declining resource, strikes, nigeria etc, it is not to difficult to imagine an oil price a significantly higher in 4 months time , like usd$150 may seem cheap.

nzo in a bull market, with just a few of the above factors has a lot of sp upside - more so afterthe options are out of the way.

imagine nzo @ nz$2.10 on june 30 and 2 weeks later @ nz$2.50, with a few of the above yet to kick in.

M

[Naylz]

Okay call me a total ignoramus but how does one go about exercising the options. Can someone post a link to this information please. I know they have to be exercised by the 30 June but I see that some options have been taken up already. Does that mean that these shares are converted already or does that mean that the shares will be allocated on 30 June 2008.

[the machine]

Okay call me a total ignoramus but how does one go about exercising the options. Can someone post a link to this information please. I know they have to be exercised by the 30 June but I see that some options have been taken up already. Does that mean that these shares are converted already or does that mean that the shares will be allocated on 30 June 2008.


its on the nzog website

M

[Bilo]

Okay call me a total ignoramus but how does one go about exercising the options. Can someone post a link to this information please. I know they have to be exercised by the 30 June but I see that some options have been taken up already. Does that mean that these shares are converted already or does that mean that the shares will be allocated on 30 June 2008.

Pay your NZD1.50 and you get a fully tradeable NZO head share for each option converted...trading today at NZD1.62 :)

[Nitaa]

So far leading up the the options i see an almost 180 change to how the shares an options were traded. Last time around the options really dragged down the heads and at one point the OC's looked in jeopody. This time i am seeing signs on different days that the options are LIFTING the heads. If my assumption is only partially true it will mean we will have a completely different look at what the top 10 or 20 shareholders will look like come end of July.

What do you think MD? Amy i right again or do you want to take an opposite view just for the sake of it?

[duncan macgregor]

NITA, Who cares what i think you are telling the story. Options require a whole lot more new money which must have a down effect on the share price. Macdunk

[Nitaa]

Actually i dont care what you think FYI. I was merely wanting to see if i can bait you.. Successful it twas.

DM. You will know from last time around.. The trend is showing an opposite pattern to last time. Therefore for a well versed chappy like yourself, this morings trading is showing the tail wagging the doggys head. Clealry this alone and the fact that it is showing that investors want the options means that it is driving the heads share.

This will be a good watch and learn for you in future.. No need to risk any money..just sit..watch..learn and see how you can benefit from a similar situation next time.

easy entry for the bigger player

[clips]

" Pay your NZD1.50 and you get a fully tradeable NZO head share for each option converted...trading today at NZD1.62 "


i'm sure you don't mind being corrected Bilo.........
make that NZD1.65

yahoo yahoo

[arjay]

Nita,
I think your last sentence was on the button. Last time heads were dragged down as smaller holders sold to convert their OCs. This time I reckon there are a number of big investors wanting to buy into NZO who have done their sums and found that quietly collecting up ODs is the cheapest way to buy a large stake in the company.

[tim23]

Looks a good theory; in the meantime their $1.50 is tucked away for a few more weeks earning a bit of interest.

[777]

I think it is that they don't have to declare their hand until exercising the options. Having said that I am sure NZOG will be monitoring the share register to see what is happening.

[Bixbite]

I think it is that they don't have to declare their hand until exercising the options. Having said that I am sure NZOG will be monitoring the share register to see what is happening.

“Will be monitoring”?

They probably and possibly have been monitoring the share register since NZOOC. Am I right, BWR?

[Nitaa]

MacDunk. See we already have the options at a discount. I know you find it hard to believe but the numbers are right in front of us. Dont try and understand why just use these oppotunites where appropriate to your advantage.

Next lesson for you next week.

[spook]

Time for another update, Entries close at midnight tonight!

Rabbi 1.5c

Rif-Raf 5.7c

Dsurf 6.5c

Rotweiler 7c

McDunck 9c Scotch (1000 year old?)

Airedale 10K

KS 11.5c

bk 12c

777 13c

Zorba 14.5c

Tim23 15c

clips 17c (They stopped producing Waitemata- too many ships discharging in the harbour now)

Brucey09 17.6c Sauza Tequila Gold (never seen it but sounds goooood)

PieTrade 22c

BobC 23c

Trackers + MPC + Upside Umop 24c

Lion 25c

Digger 27c

Chippie 28c

QOH 30c

Out To Lunch 35c

Malcolm 46c

[zorba]

.
What a stella day for PRC ....... a 12 cent rise to $1.56, surely this has to make the business headlines on the 6 o'clock news programs -- any other NZX share top the 8.3% rise for PRC ??

And NZO likewise up 5 cents to $1.64 on good volume !!

Hip Hip Horraay !!

Z
.

[friedegg]

i had a truckload of options last time round which i had no money to convert so i margined loaned,anyway last time a lot of people had a lot more to lose as the options got up to 70cents before crashing down about the same time now BUT back then nog told what i reckon was in sorts a big fib,they hyped up some gas field to the tune of 4 trillion what evas and then about two weeks later told us they were abondoning the project!!!also oil was cheaper and tui was a 20 odd million barrell new discovery,this time round i only have the number of options i can afford to convert

[tim23]

70c are you sure? they were about 30c when I converted mine? Might have got near 40c but no doubt there will be someone who can clarify?

[friedegg]

yeah they did on one day but didnt close at that,i know i followed them from start of trade to end for a few months,they were in the high sixties for a while but your right about the price when it came to money cough up

[digger]

70c are you sure? they were about 30c when I converted mine? Might have got near 40c but no doubt there will be someone who can clarify?
Yes they topped at 71 cents and then crashed to about 16 before slowly climbing to 30 to 35 at conversion time. This round is completely different and to those who see the same scenario playing out are in for a lesson. [Even my old mate bermuda is one of them]. The OC's were at a moment when NZO had no income and were at the mercy of the market.Overhanging the OC conversion was a feeling that more placements and general fund raising could happen. Not this time which is what mades it so different.NZO will take the money and will probably even find a way to spend it but it does not need it to finance existing uncompleted projects. This is completely different.

[bermuda]

Yes they topped at 71 cents and then crashed to about 16 before slowly climbing to 30 to 35 at conversion time. This round is completely different and to those who see the same scenario playing out are in for a lesson. [Even my old mate bermuda is one of them]. The OC's were at a moment when NZO had no income and were at the mercy of the market.Overhanging the OC conversion was a feeling that more placements and general fund raising could happen. Not this time which is what mades it so different.NZO will take the money and will probably even find a way to spend it but it does not need it to finance existing uncompleted projects. This is completely different.

Digger,
For better or worse I sold my oppies for between 29 cents and 14 cents to look for greener pastures but I must say your arguments do make sense. I quite like Arjay's point about some one taking a stake but never thought there was that much volume although I did see a buyer the other day for 500k...but nothing huge.

This option conversion has the drama of an opera and whatever the outcome NZO has stardom written all over it.

Good luck. No doubt you have your funding in place. I would have had to borrow and I hate doing that.

[Toulouse - Luzern]

Hi Spook

53 cents

[wk6332]

Hi Spook, 55cents please

[the machine]

per nzo website, approx 11.8m barrels produced until april 30 - that means one should brace themselves for the 12m barrel announcement out tomorrow or wednesday - 1.5m barrels for nzo.

we wait and see if comes with the expected production forecast increase to june 30 - from 13m barrels to 13.5 or even higher [it will be conservative]

previously one would have said the announcement due in about 2 weeks nog time, but have not seen anything to justify that sort of comment recently.
hopefully nzo will not prove me wrong.

another 10c increase in the sp on the back of annoucements this week would behandy

M

[Taijon]

Hi Spook, please put me down for 38 cents.
Thanks

[Nitaa]

Oil on the rise again. Whatever slowdown the US is having almost no impact on oil prices.

Everyone got their conversion money lined up?

It is going to be extremely interesting to see who is buying up the options. I guess we will know late July

[Chalice]

Oil on the rise again. Whatever slowdown the US is having almost no impact on oil prices.

Everyone got their conversion money lined up?

It is going to be extremely interesting to see who is buying up the options. I guess we will know late July

Just sold my second best property in Martinborough to ensure I'm in a possition to convert my 300K+ options.

[Nitaa]

Just sold my second best property in Martinborough to ensure I'm in a possition to convert my 300K+ options.Congrats. I bet you have a smile as wide as a chesire cat.

I believe your return on NZO will far outweigh your gain on the property you sold if you hang onto it for a couple of years.

ps. good to see a new face on the forum

[Chalice]

Congrats. I bet you have a smile as wide as a chesire cat.

I believe your return on NZO will far outweigh your gain on the property you sold if you hang onto it for a couple of years.

ps. good to see a new face on the forum

Thanks Nita, have held shares/opts since '97 so its been a while - got in in billion barrel potential days - yes, I do have a big purr happening! PS in for 214 on the comp.

[Bob C]

Oil surges past $120 on supply concerns; Gas prices have slid more than a cent since Friday

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080505/oil_prices.html

[spook]

These are the final picks for the Option picking competition. Entries are now closed. Hold onto your hats guys, it's going to be exciting. Personally I would like to see WK6332 win. (disclosure - hold a few options myself) but good luck to everyone who entered!

Rabbi 1.5c

Rif-Raf 5.7c

Dsurf 6.5c

Rotweiler 7c

McDunck 9c (Scotch)

Airedale 10K

KS 11.5c

bk 12c

777 13c

Zorba 14.5c

Tim23 15c

clips 17c ( Waitemata-)

Brucey09 17.6c (Sauza Tequila Gold )

Mibo 21c

PieTrade 22c

BobC 23c

Trackers + MPC + Upside Umop 24c

Lion 25c

Digger 27c

Chippie 28c

QOH 30c

Out To Lunch 35c

Taijon 38c

Malcolm 46c

Toulouse-Luzon 53c

WK6332 55c

Promise no more Forum space to be taken up by this except to announce the winners. To those who knocked these comps, think of this as an impromptu poll. For instance, current price is still below 66% of the picks, while 30% expect the price to at least double from here. There's valuable market intelligence right there!

[Nitaa]

Thanks for all your hard work with this comp. When does it close?

[mibo]

Hi Spook, you missed me out :confused: See message #3476

Cheers

[spook]

Hi Spook, you missed me out :confused: See message #3476

Cheers


Sorry mate, you're in the list now.

Winner is picked at close of trading on June 20th, anyone caught buying or selling their options in an attempt to manipulate the outcome will be dealt with severely:eek:

[digger]

Sorry mate, you're in the list now.

Winner is picked at close of trading on June 20th, anyone caught buying or selling their options in an attempt to manipulate the outcome will be dealt with severely:eek:

They will be spooked.

[Toddy]

Goldman's Murti Says Oil `Likely' to Reach $150-$200

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a1._ugI80nMc&refer=home

[Bixbite]

Hi ChrisR,

Please be advised that you got the same error again on the “month” on your website, the current month is “May”.

http://www.nzog.net/tui/

Cheers

[fish]

Quote:From prc thread -Great advice to improve your mental health and ultimately your wealth .

Originally Posted by Mysterybox
Yeah thanks Bermuda and other speculators, you've done us all well

In my reading today an interview with Buffet:

Then Buffet said one of the most remarkable things I've ever heard him say: "There's no reason we should become fearful if a stock goes down. If a stock goes down 50%, I'd look forward to it. In fact, I would offer you a significant sum of money if you could give me the opportunity for all of my stocks to go down 50% over the next month."

Look at that sentence again. What Buffett is actually saying is that most people's emotions work backwards: They get greedy when stock prices go up and fearful when they go down. Instead, if you are a true investor, you should shop for stocks the same way you shop for anything else: Look for sale prices, and never regard falling prices as inherently bad news. Instead, falling prices create the opportunity to buy even more of something that was already worth owning.

In that single sentence Buffett captured the difference between investing and speculating: An investor, like Buffett, wants the price of a stock to fall below the value of its underlying business so he can buy even more and hold for as long as possible. A speculator (like Jim Cramer) only wants the price of a stock to go up, with no regard for the value of the underlying business at all, so he can sell as fast as possible. To the investor, the market's opinions do not matter. To the speculator, they are the only thing that matters.

[fish]

with surging oil and coking coal prices looking as if they will be sustained-for years or maybe forever I cant see nzo remaining so cheap for long.
Bought some more nzood yesterday for 12 cents .
Will be really stretched now for conversion but can do it

[Bob C]

Oil nears $123 on $200 oil prediction, supply concerns - Tuesday May 6, 2:59 pm ET

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080506/oil_prices.html

[clips]

yes oil price looks to be heading north for a while yet, maybe a year maybe six
months.......... but nothing will keep going up forever,

[Financially dependant]

yes oil price looks to be heading north for a while yet, maybe a year maybe six
months.......... but nothing will keep going up forever,

This is true but the question is when does demand destruction kick in? or Which side of the supply-demand equation wins out?

[Sehnsucht888]

Bixbite -
Looks like Chris got it fixed.

Although the key thing is the production rate which is outstanding.

On Monday 5 May 2008 total oil production passed the 12 million barrel mark. The last one million barrels were produced in 22 days, at an average daily production rate of approx 45,000 barrels.

[bermuda]

yes oil price looks to be heading north for a while yet, maybe a year maybe six
months.......... but nothing will keep going up forever,

I was tempted to say "Apart from oil" but you are right Clips , nothing goes up forever.

But I will say this....oil goes higher until wind, solar, tidal, nuclear,geothermal, hot rock and other alternatives have been developed and population growth is curbed.

And unfortunately that could be a 10 year wait.

Let's hope NZO can find something juicy to invest in. A Queensland coal seam gas junior would be a great investment... or coal seam gas in NZ.

[airedale]

I was tempted to say "Apart from oil" but you are right Clips , nothing goes up forever.

But I will say this....oil goes higher until wind, solar, tidal, nuclear,geothermal, hot rock and other alternatives have been developed and population growth is curbed.

And unfortunately that could be a 10 year wait.

Let's hope NZO can find something juicy to invest in. A Queensland coal seam gas junior would be a great investment... or coal seam gas in NZ.

Hi Bermuda, "coal seam gas in NZ" ....An Australian company bought up the coal fields around Ohai and Nightcaps not too long ago.I wonder what their intentions are.

[airedale]

These are the final picks for the Option picking competition. Entries are now closed. Hold onto your hats guys, it's going to be exciting. Personally I would like to see WK6332 win. (disclosure - hold a few options myself) but good luck to everyone who entered!

Rabbi 1.5c

Rif-Raf 5.7c

Dsurf 6.5c

Rotweiler 7c

McDunck 9c (Scotch)

Airedale 10K

KS 11.5c

bk 12c

777 13c

Zorba 14.5c

Tim23 15c

clips 17c ( Waitemata-)

Brucey09 17.6c (Sauza Tequila Gold )

Mibo 21c

PieTrade 22c

BobC 23c

Trackers + MPC + Upside Umop 24c

Lion 25c

Digger 27c

Chippie 28c

QOH 30c

Out To Lunch 35c

Taijon 38c

Malcolm 46c

Toulouse-Luzon 53c

WK6332 55c

Promise no more Forum space to be taken up by this except to announce the winners. To those who knocked these comps, think of this as an impromptu poll. For instance, current price is still below 66% of the picks, while 30% expect the price to at least double from here. There's valuable market intelligence right there!

Hi Spook, you have me in at 10k....whatever that is. I think I chose 16 cents.:confused:

[spook]

Hi Spook, you have me in at 10k....whatever that is. I think I chose 16 cents.:confused:

Sorry Airedale - bit of a typo methinks - tired fingers

[trackers]

Investor Presentation out, very clear and concise... Estimated TUI production vs actual TUI production very telling reading......

[Nitaa]

About 5,000,000 options have traded in the last 2 days and over 1,000,000 so far this morning. The eagerness of buyers is extremely telling and is also providing current OD holders with an opportunity to bail before its too late. The trading of the options and watching the buyers snap up easy money from desperate od sellers makes interesting analyzing.

This is an extremely positive sign short term that there is millions going to be invested in the od conversion. This company is going to be worth over $1,000,000,000 VERY VERY SOON.

What do you think oil prices are going to do in the short to medium term. The media and consumer has come to realise that $150 -250 etc is not only possible but highly likely.

[xpress]

Did you notice that they put 1.6 million barrels as the estimate for 2008 TUI field?

Don't think I've seen that before

[srowe]

NZO vs PRC Nzo with its nose in frount 164-160

[bermuda]

NZO vs PRC Nzo with its nose in frount 164-160

Got money on both horses. PRC takes the lead very shortly and stays there until June 30 stretching out to a 30 cent lead. After that NZO catches up quickly. And then it will be neck and neck ( assuming that Momoho comes in ,which I am ).

[Wilkins_Micawber]

Did you notice that they put 1.6 million barrels as the estimate for 2008 TUI field?

Don't think I've seen that before

Having already produced 12m barrels, NZO's share is 1.5m barrels already. At current production rates (45K barrels per day) TUI will produce 14.5m barrels by 30th June, which would be 1.81m barrels for NZO :) Unless there is a sudden and significant a drop off, NZO would be hard pushed to only get 1.6m barrels for the year. To put it differently, production since 5th May would have to drop to an avg of only 14,300 barrels per day for NZO's share for the year to be only 1.6m barrels. So I rather suspect that NZO are being very conservative at 1.6m share for the year ... ;)

[Wilkins_Micawber]

NZO vs PRC Nzo with its nose in frount 164-160

NZO about to be overtaken ...

[Bilo]

Got money on both horses. PRC takes the lead very shortly and stays there until June 30 stretching out to a 30 cent lead. After that NZO catches up quickly. And then it will be neck and neck ( assuming that Momoho comes in ,which I am ).

I think there is a reassessment of the value of Australian oil and gas stocks underway. And the valuation methods that some organisations have erroneously been applying. Clearly they have been depressing the expected value and it took the BG Group offer for Origin to wake them up. The POO has not been factored in (unlike the price of coal that they are unable to ship).

A back of the matchbox value for NZO could now be:
Pike River 130M (at market but probably their biggest asset)
Tui 400M
Kupe 400M
Cash and prospects 70M plus option money 200M
All up 1200M
Shares on issue or about to be issued 400M
Value North of $3 per share. Bear market excepted. Takeovers excepted. Another ramp or recognition of reality is for you to determine;)
P.S. Don't give your shares away, there is a limit to how many I can take...you can Unicorn because I know that you are very confident of your valuations.

I still think Bermuda you should stop down-ramping the expected values of NZO, PRC and PPP:p
From your post, Bermuda, I take it that you are back in at least NZO and PRC.

DYOR and calcs but this is good enough for me to realise that there is room for the SP to move post June 30. Some temporary dumping of options that people don't expect their bank to give them the cash to convert (Is this because the banks want more for themselves?:D)

[clips]

prc by a short nose.... for now

[Rabbi]

I like your valuation Bilo.:)

I see Nog have a new presentation out at the moment.
In the past every time they did a presentation the SP headed South.
Will this be an exception to the rule and will Salisbury convince investors that Nog is a compelling investment.
GO SALISBURY! GO NZO! ;)

[pietrade]

prc by a short nose.... for now

-------and there goes the winner -r-r-r-r-r-r-r - ------- dum diddy dum diddy dum dum dum dum -----BEEDLEBOMB.

[fish]

[Value North of $3 per share. Bear market excepted. Takeovers excepted. Another ramp or recognition of reality is for you to determine;)
Bilo-Fully agree with your valuation -actually I recently estimated a similar valuation .
Great exposure to prc without the risk of buying into a one product one place company .
Despite Tui earning nzo a record $882,648 per day equating to annual income $322 million-there are still lots desperate or fearful nzood sellers giving their shares away at 12 or 13 cents-around 2million traded today .
Tapis hit a new record price over $126 today .Nzo share of tui production is around 5500 barrels a day
Eventually the stampede of nzood sellers will come to an end allowing nzo to reach towards its true value to me .
Strange how nzo value falls later in the day

[Nitaa]

PRC very good. I have been cautious and sceptical about this stock because i perceived it as quite risky with loads of potential.

A fantastic come - from - behind. I am sure Macdunk knows what i am talking about here. As Macdunk and others know its the ability of understanding the future potential of a company to buy stocks such as PRC at undervalued prices. Well done to those who picked PRC.

However, NZO is the other darling of the sharemarket this year. Although nzo has been considered a dog of a stock, one needs to remember that every dog has its day. Perhaps in nzo case it could be every dog has its year or 3.

Good volume once again for options and not too bad for the heads. What is that telling us. Very simple. Investors are wanting to buy options with the intention of converting bar a few traders

[ronthepom]

PRC very good. I have been cautious and sceptical about this stock because i perceived it as quite risky with loads of potential.

A fantastic come - from - behind. I am sure Macdunk knows what i am talking about here. As Macdunk and others know its the ability of understanding the future potential of a company to buy stocks such as PRC at undervalued prices. Well done to those who picked PRC.

However, NZO is the other darling of the sharemarket this year. Although nzo has been considered a dog of a stock, one needs to remember that every dog has its day. Perhaps in nzo case it could be every dog has its year or 3.

Good volume once again for options and not too bad for the heads. What is that telling us. Very simple. Investors are wanting to buy options with the intention of converting bar a few traders

Good to see you see eye to eye with Macca now--hehe

[digger]

[Value North of $3 per share. Bear market excepted. Takeovers excepted. Another ramp or recognition of reality is for you to determine;)
Bilo-Fully agree with your valuation -actually I recently estimated a similar valuation .
Great exposure to prc without the risk of buying into a one product one place company .
Despite Tui earning nzo a record $882,648 per day equating to annual income $322 million-there are still lots desperate or fearful nzood sellers giving their shares away at 12 or 13 cents-around 2million traded today .
Tapis hit a new record price over $126 today .

Very interesting fish. When i first said NZO would earn 300 million gross in the 2008 year about 3 months ago it was met with silence except for Unicorn that thought it too hopefull and set about pointing out that 200 million would be it and would make him very happy.Those of you who can revisit will remember that i said i would be watching this and return later. The later is a bit earlier than i expected but 300 million gross revenue is daily looking easier to obtain,if in fact not a bit low. Now TUI at 60 million recoverable that will probably need upgrading soon as well.Overall the oil price is about where i expected it to be. A year ago it ended lower than i thought but in this last year it has put on about 90% so over the two years is about correct. Seen somewhere where oil is expected to now double every 18 months. That should hurry along alternatives and NZO

[manxman]

Seen somewhere where oil is expected to now double every 18 months. That should hurry along alternatives and NZO

I saw a figure ten years ago that inside India was a prosperous nation the size of Australia. I expect now that both China and India have middle classes the size of France and we have to share the available oil with them.

So how much does petrol have to go up before the diggermobile cuts its mileage by 20% ?. There ain't no public transport up the Riuohauraki, so only genuine hardship will cause a consumption decrease. Fuel is only 15-20% of the total cost of running a car, so it will take a ginormous increase in petrol costs to effect a decrease in national consumption. Diesel is even less flexible, because fewer diesel powered trips are in any way optional.

Any alternatives would phase in over 7-10 years even if we had the technology established. In NZ look to LPG as Kupe comes on stream and we switch to being an exporter, but this is a purely local solution.

In the meantime, like digger says, I expect liquid fuels to double in price every second time I fill up.

Mx

[Unicorn]

Hi Digger

Let's update the revenue estimates, and see if $200M or $300M is looking more likely.

The Interim Report had Revenue of $95M for the first half, including $11M from Pike float. So that bit is now beyond argument.

The Quarterly had Tui producing another 4.08M barrels at 44,000 per day during Q3. The latest update says 22 days for the last 1 million barrels at 45,000 per day (fantastic figure that one - April up with Feb/Mar). So lets say another 4M for Q4. Thus we can expect NZO to report revenue from 8M barrels (NZO share 1M) in the last half. Tapis price was around $95US mid-Q3 and say $125US now - rough average therefore $110US.

1M x $110US / 0.78 = $141M NZ add the $95M, gives $236M NZ for the year. Then the beancounters will probably do their thing to reduce this a bit, so I still maintain the Annual Report will show revenue closer to $200M than $300M.

In case you find this disappointing - it now looks like we might expect an additional gain from the PRC investment. If PRC shares are 180c at year end, that would represent a potential profit of around $70M to NZO (not that that will appear as revenue!)

[digger]

Hi Unicorn,

We are not in the same time zone. I am using the calander year 2008,starting on 1 jan and ending 31 december. This was the origional time zone i used when i said NZO would get 300 million in 2008. I realise if you use the accounting year you will get a smaller gross revenue as start up was a month of nil and oil prices were lower then. Now here is my figures i believe to be a likely outcome for 1 jan to 31 dec 2008.

365[38000[[12.5%][135][1/.8]=292 million
Note i assume 38000 from tui average for year,that should let production get to as low as 30000 in last months of year.
Tapis is now 127 and i have taken the liberty of best guessing the average at 135,also left exchange rate to US at 80 cents which could to lower

Pike is a bit of a short in the dark. 200000 was given to end of june 09 so maybe 90,000 by end of december
90,000[300][1/.8]=33,750,000[rounded to 30million]
The revaluation of PIKE could range from nil to 100million.Note you have the SP at 1-80. It is 1-62 already so will easily be well above that. A 1/3 revaluation of the likely 90 million is 30million.I get this by saying what is the likely even if unknown chance of a sell or internal valuation.
So i end up for calander year 2008 with tui 292+30+30=352.
OK lets skip the revaluation but we are still north of 300million.

For likely gross revenue what is hopelessly wronge with these figures?

[fish]

In case you find this disappointing - it now looks like we might expect an additional gain from the PRC investment. If PRC shares are 180c at year end, that would represent a potential profit of around $70M to NZO (not that that will appear as revenue!)[/QUOTE]

Unicorn and Digger

You are both right in your own ways -Revenue $230m plus profit on increased value of prc= $300m .

But this is not for a complete 12 months production.

Tapis is now $126.76 and rising whilst production is being maintained beyond all expectations .
At current price and production rates Tapis revenue for the 2008 calender year will be well over $300 m and gain from prc I estimate around 100m .
Bilo values net asset value per share will be $3 after conversion . This is a very conservative valuation in my opinion .
In my opinion Unicorn always gives an extremely well considered and conservative assessment which i hold in the highest regard-far above any sharebroker or investment adviser and it is a testimony to diggers vision that unicorn has verified it is actually happening .
I doubt if there has been anytime in the history of the nzx has any company done so well and been so far undervalued .I like Buffet's idea that this is a great thing for investors but lousy for speculators .

[Lion]

NZO vs NZX50 last six months

http://homepages.ihug.co.nz/~dick.t/NZO_v_NZ50.gif

[Unicorn]

Digger,
There is nothing particularly wrong with your figures. There are various risks around production, prices, currency etc that may or may not happen. But the scenario you paint is as likely as any other. For the calendar year it is not unreasonable to assume $100M for the increased value of the PRC holding - and no tax, royalties or costs to come off that!

Lion,
Interesting graph. In my view the future for NZO holders is just as bright.

Not long ago I did a valuation of where I thought the market should accept NZO as being. That came out at 185c (undiluted), and since then the PRC price rise and a revised valuation of the tax losses mean that is now about 200c. I think there is much more value in the company than that, but I doubt the market will recognise it until it is proven. So I expect a steady rise in share price in coming months.

Any of ... Tui reserves upgrade, oil above $105, and Tui production above 8M barrels (April-March year), Kupe value recognised, PRC share price stronger, more discoveries from some excellent permits ... would increase that figure. The NZX as a whole might be a worrying place at present, but I am quite relaxed about my NZO holding - even though the impending NZOODs will probably supress things for the next couple of months.

[duncan macgregor]

NZO vs NZX50 last six months

http://homepages.ihug.co.nz/~dick.t/NZO_v_NZ50.gif Very nice chart and all that, but why dont you show a chart from about four years ago until today to get a longer term perspective of the sp. macdunk

[COLIN]

Why stop at 4 years ago? My largest, and core, purchase of NZO was in Feb 2003 (i.e. just over 5 years ago) - at 30 cents. To my simple mind that investment has now grown by almost 500%, to say nothing of the gains from options or the dividend. There is absolutely nothing else in the whole of my investment portfolio that has performed anything like as well as that, over that time frame. (I'm not talking about trading portfolios here, that is a different matter.)
I would give up trying to prove that NZO is a dud, if I were you. You are in danger of being labelled a "flat earther"!

Cheers, and sleep well.

Colin.

[the machine]

how about a new competition, being what was the lowest anyone paid for nzo - for starters my lowest was 20c au for 10,000 - just after hochester? - missed the low of 15c au though.

although hochester was a dud, it proved the D sands existed, inturn mapped back to tui.

M

[Misc]

Bought heaps at 12c (or was it 8c?) 2 days before they announced the 60c oppie issue (NOGOC?) .. someone else can check , but remember I bought 2 days befor ethe ann of the free oppies .... for some wierd reason LOL Think it was 1997? Have held though since 1985 ... and they werent 8c !!!

SALTY

[Nitaa]

how about a new competition, being what was the lowest anyone paid for nzo - for starters my lowest was 20c au for 10,000 - just after hochester? - missed the low of 15c au though.

although hochester was a dud, it proved the D sands existed, inturn mapped back to tui.

M
I got in back around 5 to 6 years ago when nzo were in the low 30's. Got oc options around the same time for 12 cps. They went down to about 6 cps but then the worm turned.

You make a really good point about hochester. Although i didnt enter the market for nzo at that time i heard a lot about the hype etc. What is REALLY important is what the company learns from each drill. IT IS like putting a big jigsaw puzzle together and as time goes by NZO are learing a lot. About 3 or 4 yesars ago, AWE made one of their best investments ever...That investment was Eric Mathews. I just wish they had taken Tony Radford instead

[digger]

NZO vs NZX50 last six months

http://homepages.ihug.co.nz/~dick.t/NZO_v_NZ50.gif

Lion can you tell me the answer or anyone else for that matter a small problem i have with this relative graphs. NZO is in the top 50 so when NZO is compared with the top 50 is NZO's SP movement removed from the top 50 before the graphed is made? If not the relative comparison graph is much more dramatic than shown in your post,as NZO's imput is probably the biggest uplift the top 50 has.

[foodee]

Very nice chart and all that, but why dont you show a chart from about four years ago until today to get a longer term perspective of the sp. macdunk

Mac
I seldom post here becasue there are so many astute guys.
You said somewhere you are in to win. What do you consider a winning stock for you.

Is it one with:-
# an uptrending co
# a co with no debt
# a co with sustainable profits in the medium term
# a co with proven products and growth
# a co paying good dividend

NZO may fit! Forget about the past look to the future.
I suspect you may have some tucked away already.:rolleyes:

disc: have never sold any

[duncan macgregor]

FOODEE, I dont care about a company first of all. I only look at the financial uptrend prospects of an investment, regardless of what it might be. It might be a block of land, a property, a company in the share market. All markets rise and fall, i prefer to be out falling markets even if i miss the exception to the trend.
You will always find the exception to the trend, but its a high risk game that i wont play. I dont care if a company makes weapons of mass destruction, or sells milk powder, its only a company that either trends up or gets dumpted. I look on the market as being in a downtrend, with more to come, you are very welcome to prove me wrong its your money. Macdunk

[peterb]

Lion can you tell me the answer or anyone else for that matter a small problem i have with this relative graphs. NZO is in the top 50 so when NZO is compared with the top 50 is NZO's SP movement removed from the top 50 before the graphed is made? If not the relative comparison graph is much more dramatic than shown in your post,as NZO's imput is probably the biggest uplift the top 50 has.


I think you will find NZO's weighting of the index is very small. Probably not enough to significantly alter the point Lion was making.

[fruitloop]

Buy side is stacking up this morning, perhaps NZO will break through previous high :-)

[fruitloop]

1million + options through and 400K heads on open, big buying

[trackers]

1million + options through and 400K heads on open, big buying

1.67 - up 3c... Good stuff, may breach 1.70 next week (on more news of momoho?)

[Wilkins_Micawber]

1.67 - up 3c... Good stuff, may breach 1.70 next week (on more news of momoho?)

IMHO, NZOs sp is being held back by the options (not the other way around) - shares took off this morning but dropped back due to a large qty of options at 14cps. Why do I believe this ...?

Well ... seeing the opportunity, I sold a few NZO shares at $1.66 and bought the equivalent NZOOD's at 14cps. Benefits - nearly $800 cash (after brokers fees), a bit of interest on the difference for 6 weeks (another $400+ after tax), and (in the extremely unlikely event that things turn to custard) downside risk now limited to 14cps until options are converted.

[Nitaa]

IMHO, NZOs sp is being held back by the options (not the other way around) - shares took off this morning but dropped back due to a large qty of options at 14cps. Why do I believe this ...?

Well ... seeing the opportunity, I sold a few NZO shares at $1.66 and bought the equivalent NZOOD's at 14cps. Benefits - nearly $800 cash (after brokers fees), a bit of interest on the difference for 6 weeks (another $400+ after tax), and (in the extremely unlikely event that things turn to custard) downside risk now limited to 14cps until options are converted.Smart investing as this is exactly how you limit you down side up maximise your upside.

Macdunk. Read, reread this post. do this daily for the remainder of the year. this lessson should have been for next week but was too good an opportunity for an important lesson. This post is extremely valuable for yourself or new investors to leverage the best way posible.

[tim23]

Duncan - one again you roll out the weapons of mass destruction garbage, I actually feel sorry for you, how do you manage with a chip on both shoulders? Thought it was odd you had been quiet for a few days and knew it was too good to be true, I was right.

[duncan macgregor]

[QUOTE=duncan macgregor;197933][QUOTE=duncan macgregor;197516][QUOTE=duncan macgregor;197293]Competition to select NZO share price on conversion date June 30th
in the event of a tie the winner is the person with the correct score posting first
I will list you in posting order.
1,AMR 180c, 2, OILER 165c, 3,Macdunk 159c. 4,MATTYROO 158c.
5,SEAMUS 135c, 6,SERPIE 131c, 7, LIZ 120c, 8, STRAT157c.
9TRACKERS 168, 10, COLIN 170, 11,THE MACHINE 210c. 12,MALCOLM 200c.
13,SPOOK 172, 14,BIG BOB184c, 15,ZORBA 155c, 16, REMY 167c,
17 AMERICAN PSYCHO 175c 18 SHASTA 161c, 19RONTHEPOM 171c 20 PHAEDRUS 160.
21SHREWDY 169, 22 BERMUDA 149, 23 MORV 183c, 24 COALIE 188c
25 DIGGER 173c, 26 blank, 27 NITA 181c, 28 SUMMER NED 193c.
29 QOH 179c, 30 WK6332 225c 31 BALANCE $10-60 32 KS 162,
33 TOK3N 145c, 34 SHANE M 162.5c, 35CORRAN 156c, 36 MICK100 300c.
37 DSURF 154c, 38 SKEET 185c,39 MIBO 177c, 40 JAY 162c,
41 ZACMAN 187c, 42 GAMBLER33 115c, 43 ANUBUS144c, 44 BRUCETO9 164c.
45 romer 163c.46 HOOP 147c 47 RABBI 148c 48 ROTWEILLER 153c,
49 MINGEATHINAIOOS 150c,50 MANXMAN 195c, 51 MACDUFFY 146c, 52 BLOCKHEAD 198c,
53 777 226c,54 SWISSBOY 174c,55 AIRDALE166,56 CLIPS 178c,
57 PADDIE 196c,58 FOODEE 176, 59 BK152c,60 MPC182c,
61 STEVE 151,62 ONTHEMONEY 143, 63 LION 186, 64,TIM23 189c,
65 BOB C 190 66 RIF RAF 191c 67, OUT TO LUNCH 194 68 SEHNSUCHT888 192c,
69 PIETRADE 220c,70 ZAC 197c, 71,CAM 245C,72, CHALICE 214c,
73 GLENDOONIE 142c

[Mick100]

[quote=duncan macgregor;197933][quote=duncan macgregor;197516] I wonder who is waiting on a big rise or fall in sp to enter at the last moment before entering. Remember it closes on friday june 27th the last trading price before conversion on monday june 30th.

Mackluck, your competition with no closing date is a joke - a farce.

Anyway, you go right on playing your attention-seeking little games while the rest of us carry on making money;)

,

[Nitaa]

[quote=duncan macgregor;198900][quote=duncan macgregor;197933]

Mackluck, your competition with no closing date is a joke - a farce.

Anyway, you go right on playing your attention-seeking little games while the rest of us carry on making money;)

,I put the competition in the same category as the Zimbabwe election. It will be rigged and the eventual outcome will only be decided after the NZOOE expire in 2011.

In saying that... all kudos to macca for playing a proactive role in setting up the comp

[duncan macgregor]

[quote=duncan macgregor;198900][quote=duncan macgregor;197933]

Mackluck, your competition with no closing date is a joke - a farce.

Anyway, you go right on playing your attention-seeking little games while the rest of us carry on making money;)

, Mick anyone selecting $3-00 early on in the competition should not complain. It only shows you act without thinking. Surely if you had half a brain you might have worked it out better than that. One simple little rule is beyond you it seems. Macdunk

[fish]

TUI IS CURRENTLY EARNING $914,722 PER DAY AS PER ESTIMATE BELOW

TAPIS HITS NEW RECORD-$128. 56 PER BARREL
EXCHANGE RATE FALLING-NOW TO 77.3 CENTS
NZO SHARE TUI 5500 BARRELS DAY
WONT BE LONG AT THIS RATE BEFORE TUI WILL BE PRODUCING $1,000,000 PER DAY FOR NZO .
Kupe is going to be even better

PS-I find this more relevant and more fun than your competition dunc-please could you move it to somewhere more appropriate

[Chalice]

TUI IS CURRENTLY EARNING $914,722 PER DAY AS PER ESTIMATE BELOW

TAPIS HITS NEW RECORD-$128. 56 PER BARREL
EXCHANGE RATE FALLING-NOW TO 77.3 CENTS
NZO SHARE TUI 5500 BARRELS DAY
WONT BE LONG AT THIS RATE BEFORE TUI WILL BE PRODUCING $1,000,000 PER DAY FOR NZO .
Kupe is going to be even better

PS-I find this more relevant and more fun than your competition dunc-please could you move it to somewhere more appropriate

Thanks for the information Fish - interesting, relevant and encouraging stuff - certainly better than the sand pit spat...

[blockhead]

Originally Posted by Wilkins_Micawber
IMHO, NZOs sp is being held back by the options (not the other way around) - shares took off this morning but dropped back due to a large qty of options at 14cps. Why do I believe this ...?

Well ... seeing the opportunity, I sold a few NZO shares at $1.66 and bought the equivalent NZOOD's at 14cps. Benefits - nearly $800 cash (after brokers fees), a bit of interest on the difference for 6 weeks (another $400+ after tax), and (in the extremely unlikely event that things turn to custard) downside risk now limited to 14cps until options are converted.



A very astute move I say Mr (Ms) Micawber, shall be doing the same myself anytime soon, would have done it sooner but been busy ploughing and no wireless internet on the John Deere.

[tim23]

Noted today the average $ trade was over $20,000 this has I think crept up from about $10,000 but its something I only casually look at.

[fish]

IMHO, NZOs sp is being held back by the options (not the other way around) - shares took off this morning but dropped back due to a large qty of options at 14cps. Why do I believe this ...?

Well ... seeing the opportunity, I sold a few NZO shares at $1.66 and bought the equivalent NZOOD's at 14cps. Benefits - nearly $800 cash (after brokers fees), a bit of interest on the difference for 6 weeks (another $400+ after tax), and (in the extremely unlikely event that things turn to custard) downside risk now limited to 14cps until options are converted.
To do this you sold more than a few heads-close to 50000 by my calculation-but why not take advantage of opportunities when the market is distorted-option holders selling for less than the price of heads must be stupid to give money away to you

Agree the options are holding back the heads-but over 4 million sold today and nearly one million heads . At this rate hopefully the option holdeers not planning to convert will be weeded out soon. After buying more options today I dont want to be tempted into buying more tomorrow .

[temuk]

how about a new competition, being what was the lowest anyone paid for nzo - for starters my lowest was 20c au for 10,000 - just after hochester? - missed the low of 15c au though.

although hochester was a dud, it proved the D sands existed, inturn mapped back to tui.

M

First brought NZOG just over 8 years ago for 33 cents and through
options,PPP share issue, selling once ( to buy same land )and re-buying and of course the dividend last month my 24,000 shares have cost me a grand total of $ 2316.
Work that % out then-
Eat your heart out MacD!!!!!

[tim23]

Great over 4 years or so even better since you purchased but the Master of spin will find a way of bagging your great decision!

[Wilkins_Micawber]

To do this you sold more than a few heads-close to 50000 by my calculation

Caught out huh? But not all of my NZO shares by any means :) - just that there was only a buyer for 50K worth of shares at $1.66 and a seller for plenty of oppies at a lesser price at the same time. When doing this sort of transaction, time is of the essence so best not to go in to a buy queue - has to be on the spot, at market ...

Disc. Hold a few? NZO's still (and one or two oppies as well!) :) and a few PRC's :) - am feeling pretty happy about things ... :):):)

[The BOWMAN]

Originally Posted by Wilkins_Micawber
IMHO, NZOs sp is being held back by the options (not the other way around) - shares took off this morning but dropped back due to a large qty of options at 14cps. Why do I believe this ...?

Well ... seeing the opportunity, I sold a few NZO shares at $1.66 and bought the equivalent NZOOD's at 14cps. Benefits - nearly $800 cash (after brokers fees), a bit of interest on the difference for 6 weeks (another $400+ after tax), and (in the extremely unlikely event that things turn to custard) downside risk now limited to 14cps until options are converted.



A very astute move I say Mr (Ms) Micawber, shall be doing the same myself anytime soon, would have done it sooner but been busy ploughing and no wireless internet on the John Deere.

This can only happen in NZX. Option is cheaper than the heads. I did the same thing last week but I was actually losing a bit money however will be made up from the interest saved. Now you are even making some money! I am speech less. Why will someone purchase the head in this situation? Buying the option only incure about 1/10 of the broker fee and most of the money sits in the bank to earn interest for more than a month.

[zorba]

FACT NZOG WEB SITE; tui page FACT UNICORN GAVE ME THE NUMBERS.
zorba u must be anothier 2nd rate school teacher:cool::cool::cool: nzog web site/tui page 14/4 11milion barrels produced///20th 11million 400,000 produced =7day,s ==50,000 to 83,000


Malcolm,

Having now seen the amazing growth of the average Tui monthly production as shown in the
NZOG Quarterly Report and recent Presentation .... You were quite correct and good on ya for spotting the upward trend amidst all the Tui production info released to the market. My apologies for my earlier post !!

Z

[Nitaa]

Extremely valuable information in here if you are a NZO holder. Kupe is going to be BIG

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/section/3/story.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=10508917

[digger]

Malcolm,

Having now seen the amazing growth of the average Tui monthly production as shown in the
NZOG Quarterly Report and recent Presentation .... You were quite correct and good on ya for spotting the upward trend amidst all the Tui production info released to the market. My apologies for my earlier post !!

Z

Zobra this upturn has taken us all for a suprise. About a month and half ago i got an email from someone certainly in the know that production then was falling to only 40,000 and would soon be in the thirties. I do not know what happened to account for this increase but it now looks more likely that that the attention should be on the decrease,and that could have come about from production problems and have had nothing to do with the field depletion. A pleasent suprise to all.

[fish]

Malcolm,

Having now seen the amazing growth of the average Tui monthly production as shown in the
NZOG Quarterly Report and recent Presentation .... You were quite correct and good on ya for spotting the upward trend amidst all the Tui production info released to the market. My apologies for my earlier post !!

Z-FROM NZOG WEBSITE

Production Performance (since 30 July 2007)
On Monday 5 May 2008 total oil production passed the 12 million barrel mark. The last one million barrels were produced in 22 days, at an average daily production rate of approx 45000 barrels.
NZ dollar dropping
Tui at record levels- $128.32 this morning so Tapis is over $160 kiwi and tui is likely to produce over $300 million dollars for nzo this calender year
Sanford responds to lower exchange rate-despite the prospect of much higher fuel prices and freight costs.
Nzo has minimal expenses and every 1% fall in exchange rate translates into the same rise in income and rise in value of assets-most notably prc and kupe which will be starting production at optimum times
Sold 24000 contact last week when speculators spiked the price .
Its very tempting to buy more nzood if they remain so cheap-but then I would have to ask the bank for a loan to convert-having got rid of mortgages a long time ago -have always been to cautious to borrow to invest.
Fortunately we dont have to pay provisional tax on 7/7/08 -not until end august this year
Hope the market wakes up to the fact that there is no better investment than nzo today-I really dont need more nzood

[Nitaa]

-FROM NZOG WEBSITE

Production Performance (since 30 July 2007)
On Monday 5 May 2008 total oil production passed the 12 million barrel mark. The last one million barrels were produced in 22 days, at an average daily production rate of approx 45000 barrels.
NZ dollar dropping
Tui at record levels- $128.32 this morning so Tapis is over $160 kiwi and tui is likely to produce over $300 million dollars for nzo this calender year
Sanford responds to lower exchange rate-despite the prospect of much higher fuel prices and freight costs.
Nzo has minimal expenses and every 1% fall in exchange rate translates into the same rise in income and rise in value of assets-most notably prc and kupe which will be starting production at optimum times
Sold 24000 contact last week when speculators spiked the price .
Its very tempting to buy more nzood if they remain so cheap-but then I would have to ask the bank for a loan to convert-having got rid of mortgages a long time ago -have always been to cautious to borrow to invest.
Fortunately we dont have to pay provisional tax on 7/7/08 -not until end august this year
Hope the market wakes up to the fact that there is no better investment than nzo today-I really dont need more nzoodThre is always a temptation to borrow for investment. Simple rule, never invest what you are not prepared to lose. Although you could become an instant millionaire by boowing money to convert a large amount of options etc, the risk is too great. To break even you basically have to assume a 10% pa gain minimum to break even in your investment. If something goes sour then you are left with a mountain of debt.

Only my opinion

n

[trackers]

Tapis up again...

US$128.32 = NZ$166.22

http://www.upstreamonline.com/market_data/?id=markets_oil

[trackers]

Heh:



TOP OF THE STOCKS
NZ Oil & Gas shareholders were quite rightly outraged last week after Stock Takes incorrectly listed Contact Energy as the best-performing stock in the NZX-50 this year.
A technical error meant the oil and gas explorer was omitted from the list of stocks on which our calculations were based. As it turns out, Contact's slump this week has seen it drop to third spot anyway. For the record, as of yesterday's close, the NZX-50 list of top performing stocks for the year to date is as follows:
* NZ Oil & Gas, total return 43.48 per cent
* Sanford, 12.35 per cent
* Contact 9.59 per cent.
Stepping outside the NZX-50 to include all NZSE companies shows that Mr Chips has been the star performer. It is up 86.62 per cent thanks to the takeover offer by Simplot Australia and this weeks earnings upgrade. Pike River Coal is second, up 47.59 per cent.
Investors are no doubt excited by the soaring international price of coking coal.
- Liam Dann



http://www.nzherald.co.nz/section/3/story.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=10508929&pnum=0

[OutToLunch]

"A technical error", a.k.a. "sloppy journalism".

Anyway, more p.r. for NZO, can't hurt.

[fish]

Tapis up again...

US$128.32 = NZ$166.22

http://www.upstreamonline.com/market_data/?id=markets_oil

Up still further today-129.76- ? will be touching 1.30 today

Nz $168

Had to sit on my hands many times today to stop myself clicking on buy-nitas advice is very wise but the options are so cheap and you cant lose much.

Going out to the beach fishing to get away from temptation

[777]

Tapis at 129.99.

http://www.upstreamonline.com/market_data/?id=markets_oil

[COLIN]

Tapis at 129.99.

http://www.upstreamonline.com/market_data/?id=markets_oil

Now $130.35

[fish]

131-41
nz dollar falling
Its all too tempting-arranged a family loan last night so that i can convert extra options-wont be sitting on my hands next week

[Wilkins_Micawber]

From NZO website .... Up to 8 May 2008 total oil production was approximately 12.2 million barrels.

12 millionth barrel was produced on 5th May, and no change to the comment re the water cut, so looks like she's still going strong at this stage:) ...

[duncan macgregor]

Seven weeks to go for the options with the share price trending up in a down trending market. I expect the share price to trend up a few cents, then fall back when people look for money to convert the options. That to me is the realistic outlook in the short term.
The people borrowing money to convert will bring further downside shortly after conversion date, when they sell to lock in profits.
I would think the sp at conversion date will be between $1-55, and a $1-65 with macdunk selecting $1-59 right in the picture. The sp would have been higher in a normal market but this market is going to downtrend to the end of the year so beware.

[digger]

From NZO website .... Up to 8 May 2008 total oil production was approximately 12.2 million barrels.

12 millionth barrel was produced on 5th May, and no change to the comment re the water cut, so looks like she's still going strong at this stage:) ...

Looks like 14 million by end of june.Tapis still rising now 131.43
My 60 million from TUI and 100 million gross revenue for calander year 2008 both are looking if anything on the conserative side.

[fish]

wh
Looks like 14 million by end of june.Tapis still rising now 131.43
My 60 million from TUI and 100 million gross revenue for calander year 2008 both are looking if anything on the conserative side.
Digger-you mean NZO will make more than $300 million gross from tui-and then of course another $100 million from prc
I believe duncan will be proved ,sadly for him , wrong yet again .
The handbrake effect of nzood options can only slow the rise of nzo share price-and i reckon the brake will wear out well before the options expire as the sp is being driven by 5500 barrels of light sweet crude everday -which equates to about 940000 nz dollar daily.
The net profit will be incredible as royalties are only 15% less expenses including development costs -in other words virtually no royalties in financial yr 2008 .
Production costs are under $10 a barrel !
This is going to be a ride not to be missed when the accelerator is pressed and the brake fails .

[duncan macgregor]

FISH, If you think that i take it you will wait until the end to make an entry in the competition. Who knows you might hit it right on the button if it goes over $2-00. Macdunk

[AMR]

For the first time since the quarterly NZO has displayed a bearish divergence in OBV and in the oscillators (Stochs, RSI) over the last week. What may happen is a consolidation of prices around this level.

[spook]

While we're all talking about how high the SP will go and how soon, I'm curious to find out what the next dividend will be. Based on the profit figures that could be quite a nice windfall

[Wilkins_Micawber]

Looks like 14 million by end of june.Tapis still rising now 131.43
My 60 million from TUI and 100 million gross revenue for calander year 2008 both are looking if anything on the conserative side.

If the upgrade to TUI is to 60 million barrells that is an increase of nearly 50% to the current published reserves (41.7m barrells?). McDouall Stuarts review in April valued NZO at $1.72 ("Our sum-of-parts rolling DCF valuation produces $1.72") of which TUI represented 84 cents of that valuation. So a 50% increase in the TUI reserves could add 40cps to NZO? Probably less though as some of the extra has probably already been factored in by the market as the water cut hasn't increased as expected, but would still be very good for NZO (and NZOODs!) shareprice. Here's hoping...

[fish]

If the upgrade to TUI is to 60 million barrells that is an increase of nearly 50% to the current published reserves (41.7m barrells?). McDouall Stuarts review in April valued NZO at $1.72 ("Our sum-of-parts rolling DCF valuation produces $1.72") of which TUI represented 84 cents of that valuation. So a 50% increase in the TUI reserves could add 40cps to NZO? Probably less though as some of the extra has probably already been factored in by the market as the water cut hasn't increased as expected, but would still be very good for NZO (and NZOODs!) shareprice. Here's hoping...

Mcdouall stuarts review was very conservative and has been superseded by history-by their calculations Tapis should be producing only 33000 barrels a day approx at this stage with tapis at $105 .
As i write tapis is $131.5 and tui has produced 45000barrels a day in past month
prc has massively appreciated as has gas prices-they estimate nzo share price just under $2 by next april-if current above estimation and prices are maintained it could just as easily be $3 or $4 .

[digger]

While we're all talking about how high the SP will go and how soon, I'm curious to find out what the next dividend will be. Based on the profit figures that could be quite a nice windfall

NZO has just given an unexpected dividend so i do not expect one at this stage.The scariest thing that seems to be coming out of NZO is this acquistion talk.To aquire another company just because you can is the worst of reasons for doing anything.It gets doubly scary when you read in the last invester presentation that NZ may be too small and they may have to look overseas.That is a rush of blood to the head and for the next few years we should just stay here where we know what we are doing and slowly build the company.A steady growth for now.The sharks have overcome many a NZ company that did well here and decided to take on the world too early in there development.
Jenny Ruth are you listening. That is may first question for the Invester Interview on May 13 which is next TUESDAY.

[Sumnerned]

Digger

I'm going walkabout for a few weeks. I have enjoyed reading your informed and sensible posts over recent times. Keep up the good work.

[COLIN]

For the first time since the quarterly NZO has displayed a bearish divergence in OBV and in the oscillators (Stochs, RSI) over the last week. What may happen is a consolidation of prices around this level.

Good. A window of opportunity to add to my holdings.

[the machine]

If the upgrade to TUI is to 60 million barrells that is an increase of nearly 50% to the current published reserves (41.7m barrells?). McDouall Stuarts review in April valued NZO at $1.72 ("Our sum-of-parts rolling DCF valuation produces $1.72") of which TUI represented 84 cents of that valuation. So a 50% increase in the TUI reserves could add 40cps to NZO? Probably less though as some of the extra has probably already been factored in by the market as the water cut hasn't increased as expected, but would still be very good for NZO (and NZOODs!) shareprice. Here's hoping...


doubt the outcome of review will go that high.

before production began, it was estimated 1/3 rd would be produced in 1st year [ending july 31 2008]
using that then with 12m until may 5 and 86 days leftto july 31 @ 40,000 barrels per day = approx extra 3.5m = 15.5m for 12 months production = upgrade to 46.5 m barrels.

to me that is a more reasonable quantity to expect at this juncture.

yes there will be further reviews - maybe only annual from here on as companies need to state reserves in annual reports.

M

[COLIN]

NZO has just given an unexpected dividend so i do not expect one at this stage.The scariest thing that seems to be coming out of NZO is this acquistion talk.To aquire another company just because you can is the worst of reasons for doing anything.It gets doubly scary when you read in the last invester presentation that NZ may be too small and they may have to look overseas.That is a rush of blood to the head and for the next few years we should just stay here where we know what we are doing and slowly build the company.A steady growth for now.The sharks have overcome many a NZ company that did well here and decided to take on the world too early in there development.
Jenny Ruth are you listening. That is may first question for the Invester Interview on May 13 which is next TUESDAY.

Good to air that concern, Digger. They did signal in their latest interim report that their longer-term strategy was to double the business over the next five years (not too sure what the base for measurement of that growth would be - I think they related it somewhere else to proven reserves) but they need to be asked whether that goal is still operative.
As to whether there will be any further cash dividends in the near future, I agree that that is not likely to happen - would hardly make sense to pay out a big chunk of the incoming option conversion money, particularly with inherent taxation implications (don't dissipate imputation credits unnnecessarily.)

[the machine]

invester review subjects - which need to be posed as questions
===============================================
tui
which holes have been producing over which time span.

kupe
details of the 3 productions holes - vertical or horizontal and what length do they penatrate the reservoir.
was the snorkal used for drill final sections, inturn details of how thick are the reservoirs in the drilled section

momoho
more details of the size of the prospect [origin show as potential 100 bcf gas in their recent presentation]

thanks

M

[foodee]

Colin
I think the quarterly report stated ...'to double production and double reserves by 2012.'

Totally agree with Digger's question.

Cheers

[Nitaa]

I thought i would throw around some numbers for the ones who are interested.

Tui estimate 40,000 bopd for 2000 = 5,000bopd for NZO or 1,825,000 for calender year 2008

The following is RAW revenue less operating, tax, royalties etc.. Unicorn can help here please.

5,000 bopd = at $1.30 (est current Tapis price) = USD650,000 per day or $NZ845,000 per day for NZO

NZO revenue for calender 2008 USD237,250,000

NZO revenue for calender 2008 $NZ308,425,000

The actual figures wont look like that as deductions for shipping to refinery etc and other expenses will show about 90% of actual revenue shown. Then you have tax, royalites etc. Can some accountant help with the breakdown in this area? Either way for the calender year of 2008 based on todays prices and est recovery of 40,000 bopd then we can expect approx a net profit of around $NZ500,000 per day or about $NZ180,000,000 net profit

currently nzo have 256,423,355 shares on the registery and currently TUI alone would bring in a net 71 cps net for 2008

If all options get converted then we would have 395,223,100 shares available giving every shareholder a net profit from TUI only of about 46 cps. These figures are nothing short of sensational.. Lets not forget that oil could rise to over $150 pbo or drop below $100 in almost no time. Expect volatility.

havent evwen touched on PRC and by current values PRC is worth over approx $130m to NZO or an extra 55 cps cuurently or 30 cps if all options get converted.

Kupe.. This is one i am really excited about. Insificient datea for me at the mo but looking at what is happening with Origin then clearly Kupe will be bigger than Hawera. Here is your dividend puppy. PRC to be sold imo within 12 months.

Tui is only the start. I expect other tie ins to tui as the JV better understand the permit areas. also i see tui only operating on 3 cyclinders. There must be a certain model of efficiecy as the extra the oil at a certasin rate to maximise current and long term earnings. Tui will be on stream for the life of the lease imo.

This is quick calulations so i am sure there are errors. I am also aware that price of oil in january is not what it is now. However if you like numbers then have a play around

[Nitaa]

1 point that i left out whicj is also critical is the option conversion and how much cash it will bring in.

Should all the options get converted then $208m extra will go into the coffers. A total of up to 464,000,000 shares. If so then the conversion will add 50 cps to the value of each share.

With some of these numbers and over $1b invested into Kupe then its not hards to see why the smart money are buying up large with the NZOOD's

[duncan macgregor]

1 point that i left out whicj is also critical is the option conversion and how much cash it will bring in.

Should all the options get converted then $208m extra will go into the coffers. A total of up to 464,000,000 shares. If so then the conversion will add 50 cps to the value of each share.

With some of these numbers and over $1b invested into Kupe then its not hards to see why the smart money are buying up large with the NZOOD's NITA, what you miss is that if you think the shares are worth more than $1-50 at this moment then converting the options will dilute the shares worth. They are selling bits of the cake at $1-50 making a bigger cake with each slice worth less than todays price. The options must hold back the share price simply because of the nature of the game. I would say the share price would have been higher on june 30th without the options. Macdunk

[temptation]

Ah Nita, You were getting me all excited, and then that Macdunc butted in and it was just like taking a cold shower!

[Nitaa]

MD. you comment is more or less on the mark except for what you think that i am thinking.

The point i am getting is simply for investors to look at possible values, potential, risks etc. the numbers i am giving are pretty much based on todays numbers, not Jan 08 or Dec 08 etc.

What i havent gone into too much detail is what the risks are for Tui, Kupe and PRC. Nor have i gone into detail too much about the huge upside especially with Kupe and also with the potential for exploration in the permits that nzo hold and the permits they may have tendered for.

i hope that nzo sell prc as soon as production starts so it can realise a truer value, especially with unprecedented prices for coking coal.

MD. your comment is logical and yes it will hold back the heads to a certain degree. however from what i have seen, buyers are outstripping sellers in the sense that the bigger players are gobbling up the options from the ones who cant or do not wish to convert them. If you compare it to OC's last time, the selling pressure for the options really dragged down the heads. Now the opposite is happening is quite a unique site. simply put, the big daddies are coming to play and nzo are not just on their radar, they are snapping them up like there is no tommorrow.

Come Monday, expect a very good opening with the heads and options with high oil prices and a lower $NZ

[tim23]

Duncan- you are wrong you are treating an options issue like a bonus issue, theres an extra $1.50 per conversion so do the mathes old flella

[Nitaa]

NITA, what you miss is that if you think the shares are worth more than $1-50 at this moment then converting the options will dilute the shares worth. They are selling bits of the cake at $1-50 making a bigger cake with each slice worth less than todays price. The options must hold back the share price simply because of the nature of the game. I would say the share price would have been higher on june 30th without the options. MacdunkIts also worth to remember thatmany posters thought that the options would hold back the sp for the few months leading up to the conversion. However i dont mind the sp being held back if i keep getting an increase of 60% in the heads for the last few months.

disc. hold maninly options but sold 70% of them last year. My money is ready for conversion when/if required

[Steve]

NZO has just given an unexpected dividend so i do not expect one at this stage.

The dividend was not unexpected. Why do you think that it was?

[tim23]

I disgaree - it was unexpected; what % of oil cos pay divys, less than 10% I suspect!

[Steve]

I recall it being hinted at when Tui was coming on stream. It would be unexpected if an annual dividend was not paid. This goes for now and for the next few years...

[tim23]

Key word hinted...

[Steve]

I will go back to the announcements for the actual wording... :)

[duncan macgregor]

Duncan- you are wrong you are treating an options issue like a bonus issue, theres an extra $1.50 per conversion so do the mathes old flella
TIM, you do the maths they are now letting people buy a new share for $1-50 when the market values them at $1-63. The more shares there are the less percentage of the company that they are worth. They are adding $1-50 to the company diluting your $1-65.
Its not in your best interest that the options get converted when the company is cash rich. Macdunk

[sideline]

Slightly off topic maybe, given the normal squabbling on this thread, but there
is an interesting read on FNARENA about the POO at
http://www.fnarena.com/index2.cfm?type=dsp_newsitem&n=CB984E91-1871-E587-E1DA74E8FCCC3750