NZ Oil & Gas (NZO)

[gulf]

TIM, you do the maths they are now letting people buy a new share for $1-50 when the market values them at $1-63. The more shares there are the less percentage of the company that they are worth. They are adding $1-50 to the company diluting your $1-65.
Its not in your best interest that the options get converted when the company is cash rich. Macdunk

lets face it you have no idea what the company will do with the money - you should move on !!

[Mick100]

lets face it you have no idea what the company will do with the money - you should move on !!

yeah, that's the 64,000 dollar question - what are they going to do with the money?

[Bixbite]

TIM, you do the maths they are now letting people buy a new share for $1-50 when the market values them at $1-63. The more shares there are the less percentage of the company that they are worth. They are adding $1-50 to the company diluting your $1-65.
Its not in your best interest that the options get converted when the company is cash rich. Macdunk

Let’s see how the current head-shares will be diluted by the options after getting converted.???

Head shares 260,000,000 (head shareholders have got dividend $0.05 per share)
Options 140,000,000
Market share price @1.65

Market value 260,000,000 x $1.65 = $429,000,000
Options funding 140,000,000 x $1.50 = $210,000,000

After converted: -
$429,000,000 + $210,000,000 = $639,000,000
$639,000,000 / 400,000,000 shares = $1.60 per share

Conclusion: -
Share price for the current head shareholders who’ve got the unexpected dividend $0.05 per share, is $1.65. (No change)

Cheers

[foodee]

Bixbite
The heads look even better when you add in the imputation credits
for the dividend.

cheers

[duncan macgregor]

[QUOTE=duncan macgregor;198900][QUOTE=duncan macgregor;197933][QUOTE=duncan macgregor;197516][QUOTE=duncan macgregor;197293]Competition to select NZO share price on conversion date June 30th
in the event of a tie the winner is the person with the correct score posting first
I will list you in posting order.
1,AMR 180c, 2, OILER 165c, 3,Macdunk 159c. 4,MATTYROO 158c.
5,SEAMUS 135c, 6,SERPIE 131c, 7, LIZ 120c, 8, STRAT157c.
9TRACKERS 168, 10, COLIN 170, 11,THE MACHINE 210c. 12,MALCOLM 200c.
13,SPOOK 172, 14,BIG BOB184c, 15,ZORBA 155c, 16, REMY 167c,
17 AMERICAN PSYCHO 175c 18 SHASTA 161c, 19RONTHEPOM 171c 20 PHAEDRUS 160.
21SHREWDY 169, 22 BERMUDA 149, 23 MORV 183c, 24 COALIE 188c
25 DIGGER 173c, 26 blank, 27 NITA 181c, 28 SUMMER NED 193c.
29 QOH 179c, 30 WK6332 225c 31 BALANCE $10-60 32 KS 162,
33 TOK3N 145c, 34 SHANE M 162.5c, 35CORRAN 156c, 36 MICK100 300c.
37 DSURF 154c, 38 SKEET 185c,39 MIBO 177c, 40 JAY 162c,
41 ZACMAN 187c, 42 GAMBLER33 115c, 43 ANUBUS144c, 44 BRUCETO9 164c.
45 romer 163c.46 HOOP 147c 47 RABBI 148c 48 ROTWEILLER 153c,
49 MINGEATHINAIOOS 150c,50 MANXMAN 195c, 51 MACDUFFY 146c, 52 BLOCKHEAD 198c,
53 777 226c,54 SWISSBOY 174c,55 AIRDALE166,56 CLIPS 178c,
57 PADDIE 196c,58 FOODEE 176, 59 BK152c,60 MPC182c,
61 STEVE 151,62 ONTHEMONEY 143, 63 LION 186, 64,TIM23 189c,
65 BOB C 190 66 RIF RAF 191c 67, OUT TO LUNCH 194 68 SEHNSUCHT888 192c,
69 PIETRADE 220c,70 ZAC 197c, 71,CAM 245C,72, CHALICE 214c,
73 GLENDOONIE 142c

[COLIN]

Let’s see how the current head-shares will be diluted by the options after getting converted.???

Head shares 260,000,000 (head shareholders have got dividend $0.05 per share)
Options 140,000,000
Market share price @1.65

Market value 260,000,000 x $1.65 = $429,000,000
Options funding 140,000,000 x $1.50 = $210,000,000

After converted: -
$429,000,000 + $210,000,000 = $639,000,000
$639,000,000 / 400,000,000 shares = $1.60 per share

Conclusion: -
Share price for the current head shareholders who’ve got the unexpected dividend $0.05 per share, is $1.65. (No change)

Cheers

Duncan's point is still valid, but I agree that the dilutionary effect is relatively minor. (And I can't see that the past payment of a dividend has anything to do with the point at issue. We are talking about the here and now.)

[digger]

doubt the outcome of review will go that high.

before production began, it was estimated 1/3 rd would be produced in 1st year [ending july 31 2008]
using that then with 12m until may 5 and 86 days leftto july 31 @ 40,000 barrels per day = approx extra 3.5m = 15.5m for 12 months production = upgrade to 46.5 m barrels.

to me that is a more reasonable quantity to expect at this juncture.

yes there will be further reviews - maybe only annual from here on as companies need to state reserves in annual reports.

M

I find this reasoning illogical.It just does not follow.If the field is small it might be possible to extract 1/3 in the first year. As the field gets bigger it then become harder to get anywhere near the 1/3. Remember we are contained by the often stated fact that Umuroa is limited to a max of 50000 per day.If you have trouble[not maths inclined] seeing this imagine it was 1 billion,then working flat out constrained by 50000 a day in would take 54 years. So you can not project forward a smaller field depletion rate onto a larger field unless you up the extraction rate if you are aiming to remove 1/3 in year one.

[adv]

I find this reasoning illogical.It just does not follow.If the field is small it might be possible to extract 1/3 in the first year. As the field gets bigger it then become harder to get anywhere near the 1/3. Remember we are contained by the often stated fact that Umuroa is limited to a max of 50000 per day.If you have trouble[not maths inclined] seeing this imagine it was 1 billion,then working flat out constrained by 50000 a day in would take 54 years. So you can not project forward a smaller field depletion rate onto a larger field unless you up the extraction rate if you are aiming to remove 1/3 in year one.

Valid point digger - especially when you consider that only 3 wells have been in production for most (if not all) of this year. Hence, if all 4 wells had been in production, then total production would have been 4/3 of current production (all other things being equal). So, if total production to 31 July is say 15 m barrels, then 4/3 * 15m = 20 m barrels. If we then multiply this by 3 we get back to the magic 60 m barrels of reserves.

[temptation]

Maxdunc is right. If you think that fare value for the shares is greater than $1.63, and then you sell truck loads at $1.50, then you are diluting the value!

[the machine]

Valid point digger - especially when you consider that only 3 wells have been in production for most (if not all) of this year. Hence, if all 4 wells had been in production, then total production would have been 4/3 of current production (all other things being equal). So, if total production to 31 July is say 15 m barrels, then 4/3 * 15m = 20 m barrels. If we then multiply this by 3 we get back to the magic 60 m barrels of reserves.

please elaborate which 3 wells have been in production and for how long.

would very much like to see a forecast of 60m barrels from tui, however expectwill be unlikely following present review.

maybe in a couple of years after tui H 4 out performs

M

[Taijon]

Anyone thinking about the possibility of this?

I think its conceivable the Government may introduce a special levy on companies mining "national resources" (like oil and coal) in addition to the current royalty provisions. It could be dressed up as a very attractive proposition.

The G could say that the current oil and coal prices are exceptional and the country is not getting an equitable share of the windfall profits flowing through to the mining companies and their shareholders. A special levy would be imposed above a threshold level, say $US100 per barrel of oil and $US 120 per tonne of coal exported. The levy would rise as the price increased above the threshold, in a manner similar to the marginal tax system for income tax.

The G could put the levy monies collected in a special account earmarked for research into "green energy alternatives". This would appeal to The Greens.

As many of the companies are overseas registered with many overseas shareholders any political backlash would only come from a small group of potential voters and the proposal would appeal to those of the masses who are jealous of the windfall profits some of their work colleagues and friends look set to get.

The proposal would have positive implications for those Maori and others who see oil and coal as national resources which shouldn't be being mined by overseas companies and exported. Also it is positive for women as many of them tend to regard investment in mining companies as nothing more than gambling.

All in all it could be an electoral winner, bringing in possibly $800 million over the next 5 years (purely a stab in the dark) which would boost the budget surplus and raise the funds available for research.

Don't go planning on upgrading your house, having an overseas holiday or buying a boat yet. This could be the mother of all nightmares.

Sleep easy, its just a horrible dream!!!!!!!!!!!!! Or is it? Definitely a threat and something to consider when evaluating the risk of something going wrong. May not happen this year but who knows further out.

[Nitaa]

It is a reality that the government could impose some levy or extra tax for mining/exploration in nz teritory. If they were to i ntrodice such thing they need to be careful they dont price themselves out of the game so to speak. Conversly the flip side has occured recently to encourage exploration in nz. One thing that oil companys do well is often play down the potential or exagerate the difficulty in exploring to get more political favours.

Depending on tax laws i suspect one reason that the tui valuation has relative conservative estimates is the tax that the jv would have to pay on futre earnings. What that means for medium and lnger term holders is better than expected revenues. Tui will be no exception

[digger]

Hi Taijon,
Notice i did not quote your post here. It is one of those posts that can give goverments and other envious parties too many reason to believe that taking a ride on other peoples success is valid.The idea would certainly be attractive and would untimately send up the cost of oil as the risk to further drill would then be higher.My wife has often said much the same to me over the years. She says just as soon as you win jealousy will kick in and attempts will be made to cash in on your success. But if all the wells are dry do not expect govts,natives peoples or anyone else to come and share your loss. The only valid point i have ever been able to say to that is there is and always has been fools that will kill the goose to get supposly more golden eggs,or cut down the apple tree to get the few at the top. Our only defence here is an appeal to what effect such action might hold for the future.

[temptation]

Hello, I've been holding NOG since August 2000 (first parcel bought @ 30cps), and I've been a casual observer of this forum since a little before then, but have only just become a member. Thankyou all very much for all of the interesting insights!

A couple of weeks ago I saw the FPSO Raroa in Wellington harbour which prompted me to find out about the Maari oil field.
Maari appears to be about a year behind Tui (they are waiting for the Ensco 107 to be released from Kupe/Momoho), and they estimate that Maari has 49 mmbls (20mmbls more than Tui was estimated to have at the same stage of development).

Do you think that ASX.HZN and ASX.CUE could be the next NZO and PPP?
http://www.toddenergy.co.nz/te/pro_maari.html

[sideline]

Tajon,
such a move would be the end of oil exploration in and around NZ for the next 10 to 20 years.
After all, they LOWERED the royalties payable on new exploration discoveries made between 1 July 2004 and 31 December 2009) to encourage more exploration.
Those discoveries have been 'promised/guaranteed' that lower rate of royalties! To introduce a new
tax like you fear would be nothing other than an additional royalty in disguise.
It would destroy all international credibility of NZ in international oil exploration circles.
I think even a Labour Govt can see the disastrous consequences of this.

[Chippie]

I agree with Sideline. Oil and Gas exploration is nothing but good for the economy stimulating the economy with all the $ spent in NZ with Engineering co's. Not to mention all the job created or $ spent by the riggers etc. The Government clips the ticket on all of this with income, gst tax etc.

Current royalties from all the production fields in NZ must already be bringing in more than $400M p/a. This is a cash cow for the Government as it does not cost taxpayers a thing to earn this rev. Increase oil production increases revenue makes it easy to cut taxes (and earn votes)

Could you imagine NZ's current account deficit if Tui was not exporting oil. Next year it looks better with Maari and Kupe online. The NZ economy would be looking sick.

In summary a smart Government will do all it can to encourage oil exploration. The few years are going to be rocky for the average NZ’r when the NZ $ depreciates and further exposes inflation and the gulf between NZ and Aus incomes (lets not mention lower tax rates)

[arjay]

Tim23,
re your earlier post - it has always been NZO policy (refer to Ngatoro-era announcements) that they will pay out a certain portion of sustainable income as dividends. So, it is not surprising that NZO now pay a dividend and will do so as long as they are generating surplus income.

Taijon,
Correct me if I'm wrong, but as I understand it the govt recieves income as a % of production. Therefore, it doesn't matter how much oil gets produced or how many $ it sells for per barrel, the govts share will always adjust accordingly. In this case I don't see how the govt could consider they were missing out. In actual $ terms they are getting more now than they expected so everyone should be happy.

[the machine]

another question for the sharechat interview

would a discovery at momoho fall into the lower royalties for new exploration discoveries from july 2004 to december 2009

M

[Steve]

Tim23,
re your earlier post - it has always been NZO policy (refer to Ngatoro-era announcements) that they will pay out a certain portion of sustainable income as dividends. So, it is not surprising that NZO now pay a dividend and will do so as long as they are generating surplus income.

Thanks for confirming that, Arjay. I know that there had been an announcement somewhere along the way! :)

[Lion]

. . . .if all 4 wells had been in production, then total production would have been 4/3 of current production (all other things being equal). So, if total production to 31 July is say 15 m barrels, then 4/3 * 15m = 20 m barrels.

4/3 of current production (about 43kbpd) would be 57 kbpd, which exceeds the Umuroa's maximum of 50 kbpd.

But sure, as production from the current 3 well heads decreases (as it surely will, and has even begun to, tho at far less rate than expected) then the fourth Tui well will help bring it back up.

Then there are other possibilities too, when those four start to slow down . . . . . :)

[Hoop]

Sorry, a change of topic...

Found this gem from the Elliott Wave International (http://www.elliottwave.com/freeupdates/archives/2008/05/08/Why-Oil-Prices-Change-%E2%80%93-Part-III.aspx)
I was sceptical when I first read it, but digging around via google search I am finding it hard to fault their 7 myths argument.

Amazing!!...I always thought I would not get brainwashed by the media...but I seems I have with oil.

7 Myths about Oil
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
Why Oil Prices Change – Part III. And Seven Reasons Why Not

http://www.elliottwave.com/images/dotted_line.gifBy Robert Folsom Published: Thu, 08 May 2008 16:45:00 EThttp://www.elliottwave.com/images/dotted_line.gif

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Special Series
Why Oil Prices Change
For more reading on why oil prices change -- and why they don't, please read all parts of the series.
Part I (http://www.elliottwave.com/freeupdates/archives/2008/05/06/Why-Oil-Prices-Change-Part-I.aspx), Part II (http://www.elliottwave.com/freeupdates/archives/2008/05/06/Why-Oil-Prices-Change-Part-II.aspx), Part III (http://www.elliottwave.com/freeupdates/archives/2008/05/08/Why-Oil-Prices-Change-%E2%80%93-Part-III.aspx)
This is part three in the "Why Oil Prices Change" series. Obviously it's easy to write headlines like that, but it takes some reading and research to deliver on the headline's promise. I found that, for the most part, my research time proved an exercise in myth busting -- which is to say, I realized that I needed to explain what does not change oil prices before I could explain what does.

Oil is by far the world's most heavily analyzed commodity, and the data is both voluminous and reliable. The Energy Information Administration (www.eia.doe.gov (http://www.eia.doe.gov)) is the best one-stop data source, for oil and all other major energy sources. Its charts are among the several I include below; as you'll see, the visuals alone are an education in oil and oil prices. Let's begin with the most-often repeated myths about why oil prices change, or more to the point, why they've been going higher in recent years. (Click on the thumbnails to view the charts.)

http://www.elliottwave.com/images/marketwatch/worldproduction.gif (http://www.elliottwave.com/images/marketwatch/worldproduction.gif)
[+ Enlarge] (http://www.elliottwave.com/images/marketwatch/worldproduction.gif)
It's OPEC's Fault -- That can't be true, since non-OPEC states produce more crude oil than does OPEC.

http://www.elliottwave.com/images/marketwatch/crudereserves.gif (http://www.elliottwave.com/images/marketwatch/crudereserves.gif)
[+ Enlarge] (http://www.elliottwave.com/images/marketwatch/crudereserves.gif)
The World is Running Out of Oil -- More nonsense, of the "Peak Oil" variety; the world's proven crude reserves are growing.

http://www.elliottwave.com/images/marketwatch/SurplusProduction.gif (http://www.elliottwave.com/images/marketwatch/SurplusProduction.gif)
[+ Enlarge] (http://www.elliottwave.com/images/marketwatch/SurplusProduction.gif)
Surplus Crude Oil Production Capacity is Too Low -- Capacity is only slightly below the historical norm; it actually increased in 2006 and 2007.

http://www.elliottwave.com/images/marketwatch/btu-gdp.gif (http://www.elliottwave.com/images/marketwatch/btu-gdp.gif)
[+ Enlarge] (http://www.elliottwave.com/images/marketwatch/btu-gdp.gif)
Consumers and Industry Use Too Much Oil -- Actually, they're learning how to make energy go a lot further.

http://www.elliottwave.com/images/marketwatch/worldconsume.gif (http://www.elliottwave.com/images/marketwatch/worldconsume.gif)
[+ Enlarge] (http://www.elliottwave.com/images/marketwatch/worldconsume.gif)
Countries Like China Are Driving Up Demand -- Look carefully at this chart: year-to-year consumption has seen marginal gains, but the rate declined.
There's A Supply/Demand Imbalance -- This is nonsense. Total world supply and demand have grown at the same constant pace since the mid-1980s. And by definition, two constant factors cannot account for wide fluctuations in the outcome (namely price) of a transaction.

http://www.elliottwave.com/images/marketwatch/crude05.gif (http://www.elliottwave.com/images/marketwatch/crude05.gif)
[+ Enlarge] (http://www.elliottwave.com/images/marketwatch/crude05.gif)
It's the Weather -- This myth goes back to Hurricane Katrina, which to this day is said to have "caused" shortages and a huge increase in oil prices. Katrina came ashore in Louisiana on August 29, 2005; not only did prices not go up, they actually declined 19% in the three months that followed, as the chart plainly shows.
Mind you, all sorts of other myths surround the oil and energy markets these days. Take the "Biofuels will save us" idea. Here's a few remarks from The Wall Street Journal about how the biofuels experiment is going.
"Corn ethanol can now join the scare over silicone breast implants and the pesticide Alar as among the greatest scams of the age.... it's worth recounting how much damage this ethanol political machine is doing.

"To create just one gallon of fuel, ethanol slurps up 1,700 gallons of water... The record 30 million acres the U.S. will devote to ethanol production this year will consume almost a third of America's corn crop while yielding fuel amounting to less than 3% of petroleum consumption."

http://www.elliottwave.com/images/marketwatch/stockscrude.gif (http://www.elliottwave.com/images/marketwatch/stockscrude.gif)
[+ Enlarge] (http://www.elliottwave.com/images/marketwatch/stockscrude.gif)
Oil Up When Stocks Down -- Then there's the endlessly-repeated notion that "Stocks Go Down When Oil Goes Up." I invite you to print this chart, keep it in your pocket, and pull it out next time that particular myth assaults your ears.
So: What is the answer to "Why Oil Prices Change"?

Prices in a freely traded market are always a function of what the seller asks and what the buyer bids. Innumerable factors will affect the psychology of the buyer and seller -- yet when their minds meet, you get a price. And make no mistake: that meeting of those minds is, above all, psychological.

That psychology unfolds in recognizable patterns. Elliott Wave International's Energy analyst Steve Craig was NOT thinking about "supply worries" in his commentary for the Global Market Perspective in March 2007 -- which was the last time crude oil was anywhere near $50 per barrel. Instead, he was thinking about what really matters, namely the psychology of the market as reflected by the price patterns. He said, “Given the depth of the decline from last summer’s record high, an impulse wave into record territory would fit the… advance.”

You can do better, because there IS better. Come discover oil market analysis that's based on the oil market. Your portfolio is too important not to.

[peterb]

A couple of weeks ago I saw the FPSO Raroa in Wellington harbour which prompted me to find out about the Maari oil field.
Maari appears to be about a year behind Tui (they are waiting for the Ensco 107 to be released from Kupe/Momoho), and they estimate that Maari has 49 mmbls (20mmbls more than Tui was estimated to have at the same stage of development).

Do you think that ASX.HZN and ASX.CUE could be the next NZO and PPP?
http://www.toddenergy.co.nz/te/pro_maari.html

I would be very careful about inferring that Maari could have the same sorts of reserves upgrades or production over-achievement as Tui has had. They are very different sorts of reservoirs. Tui was noted for having excellent reservoir quality, and while I'm not saying there are necessarily going to be major problems, Maari is a very different game and theres no reason to expect its going to play out in the same way - oil is always a very speculative business and nothing is as certain as it seems, as I and others have found out to their expense. Having said that, I don't know much more about the project and I think certainly there could be good reasons for investing in those companies though comparing Tui success is not one of those reasons.

[bk]

Sorry, a change of topic...

It's OPEC's Fault -- That can't be true, since non-OPEC states produce more crude oil than does OPEC.
I would not be blame OPEC as the graphs show no sudden changes in OPEC production, but the argument by itself is plainly wrong. If say non-OPEC were to produce a constant volume and suddenly OPEC were to halve their production, then even if their production is smaller than non-OPEC it could have a serious effect.



The World is Running Out of Oil -- More nonsense, of the "Peak Oil" variety; the world's proven crude reserves are growing.
More nonsense of the "Peak Oil Denier" variety! Peak Oil means (depending on who you talk to) that we are half way, not running out of oil, not by a long shot. And proven crude reserves are NOT growing; oil reserves in general are but that includes tar sands etc which - even if they could in the long run produce the claimed large quantities of oil - will only produce a relatively small volume per year. It is not how much there is, but how much can be produced each year.



Surplus Crude Oil Production Capacity is Too Low -- Capacity is only slightly below the historical norm; it actually increased in 2006 and 2007.

have a good look at that graph - for the last five years it has been BELOW average. The shortfall may have been less in 2006 and 2007, but is still not in positive territory, and may only reach that in 2009. Until then, below the norm sounds to me as "too low", or at least "low".



Consumers and Industry Use Too Much Oil -- Actually, they're learning how to make energy go a lot further.

yes, and the point is?? We have MORE consumers each year, and the GDP INCREASES each year too, so even with a more efficient use they (we) use too much. As a world we use too much, and production simply can not keep up with the increase



Countries Like China Are Driving Up Demand -- Look carefully at this chart: year-to-year consumption has seen marginal gains, but the rate declined.

Look carefully at that chart - the "marginal" consumption gains of 2-3% each year are more than the near zero production increases for the last few years! Also China increases by close to 10% a year - and that is driving up demand. Not that they don't have a right to live like us, but that is a different story



There's A Supply/Demand Imbalance -- This is nonsense. Total world supply and demand have grown at the same constant pace since the mid-1980s. And by definition, two constant factors cannot account for wide fluctuations in the outcome (namely price) of a transaction.

Supply and demand were kept in balance because there was always a surplus that could be switched on if required. As per above, for the past 5 years this cushion was TOO LOW (and I think will remain too low), hence increased volatility



It's the Weather -- This myth goes back to Hurricane Katrina, which to this day is said to have "caused" shortages and a huge increase in oil prices. Katrina came ashore in Louisiana on August 29, 2005; not only did prices not go up, they actually declined 19% in the three months that followed, as the chart plainly shows.

For once we nearly agree! Some oil wells never opened after Katrina, so it definitely had an effect, but I agree that in the larger scheme of things this one weather event didn't make much difference. If however the frequency of such event due to global climate change increases it may become an issue in the future



Mind you, all sorts of other myths surround the oil and energy markets these days. Take the "Biofuels will save us" idea. Here's a few remarks from The Wall Street Journal about how the biofuels experiment is going.
"Corn ethanol can now join the scare over silicone breast implants and the pesticide Alar as among the greatest scams of the age.... it's worth recounting how much damage this ethanol political machine is doing.

"To create just one gallon of fuel, ethanol slurps up 1,700 gallons of water... The record 30 million acres the U.S. will devote to ethanol production this year will consume almost a third of America's corn crop while yielding fuel amounting to less than 3% of petroleum consumption."

fully agree, this subsidized ethanol scam only takes food from the hungry to feed the SUV's and will not make a significant dent in the growing shortages



Oil Up When Stocks Down -- Then there's the endlessly-repeated notion that "Stocks Go Down When Oil Goes Up." I invite you to print this chart, keep it in your pocket, and pull it out next time that particular myth assaults your ears.

I really do not know whether this is true or not - but just note that in the past mini oil shocks were artificial, and in the future will become structural, so past performance will not necessarily predict the future

[COLIN]

Tim23,
re your earlier post - it has always been NZO policy (refer to Ngatoro-era announcements) that they will pay out a certain portion of sustainable income as dividends. So, it is not surprising that NZO now pay a dividend and will do so as long as they are generating surplus income.

.


I think the earlier question related to whether there would be a further dividend on announcement of the annual results to 30 June 2008. Just to set the record straight, I quote from the Interim Report (page 4):

"The Board of NZOG has resolved to pay a fully imputed dividend for the 2007/08 financial year at 5.0c per ordinary share. This recognises an outstanding period and provides shareholders with an immediate share of that success.
The Board has also determined a new dividend policy. In future years a reasonable proportion of profit will be distributed by way of an annual dividend. It would be imprudent to give a more specific dividend forecast, due to the volatility of international oil prices, exchange rates, the lumpy nature of capital investment in the oil industry and the need to retain sufficient cash flows."

So from that I take it that the dividend paid on 15 April 2008 was in fact the ANNUAL DIVIDEND for the 2007/08 year (it was not referred to as an INTERIM DIVIDEND). My earlier post in fact stated that we could not expect a further dividend payment in the NEAR future.

[COLIN]

bk: (Brent King?):

I'm glad you took the time and effort to blow holes in those supposed "7 Deadly Myths". That guy just slides over what must surely be the major issue, i.e. "Plenty more oil may be there, in some form or other, somewhere under the earth's skin, but its becoming increasingly a question of the cost and rate of extraction, and development of the technical capability of doing so (e.g. heating bitumen coverings, boring a kilometre through a salt crust, setting up underground refineries, drilling in incredibly deep water, etc., etc.)"
I used to be a "Peak Oil Sceptic" but no longer. (But I'm still a "Global Warming Sceptic" - I'm not that easily convinced on that particular new religion!)

[Nitaa]

Colin. Very fair point. I might be stating the obvious but here goes.
Oil is finite that is for sure.
There will be other forms of energy to be invented or made viable due to high oil prices.
Oil that was once considered unrecoverable may now be considered recoverable through 2 simple reasons. Price of oil and technology.
Most of the easy oil has been extracted.
More difficult oil can be extracted now than it was b4.
World is using far more oil (imo) than ever before.
A lot more expensive to extract oil than ever before. i.e. if oil prices crash which they wil at some point..ecomics make it difficult for exploration and we start the whole cycle again. As time goes on the cycle will speed up and the exageration will be much bigger until something gives.

[digger]

Hoop
I find it incredible that you post that article which is one sided rubbish Almost from the start the preception is wrong. You have oil as the most analzed commodity. Right there it is wrong.It is not a commodity ,it is a precious depleting resource.
You have IEA held up as if they knew what was going on. The IEA has only very recently seen the light about PO,before then there analysis was usually wrong .
Thirdly it is not about reported oil reserves it is all about oil flows. Reserves since the 80 are just a figure that do to the quote scheme was manuplitated for personal benifit and so today has not value. It is a bit like going to the pub and listening to stories there and then asking for results. The results are all that count,the stories are just that stories.
Get back to oil flows,they are the telling story.

[arjay]

Fair comment Colin,

you're basically saying that NZO is making noises about regular annual dividends and that the recent pay-out was more of a bonus, so maybe our first 'regular' pay-out is still to come?

[fish]

Company Announcements




New Zealand Oil and Gas Limited - Announcements




NZO
12/05/2008
MINE

REL: 0957 HRS New Zealand Oil and Gas Limited

MINE: NZO: Momoho Exploration Well Disclosure Notice

Drilling of the Momoho exploration well, contained within the Kupe Permit
38146 in offshore Taranaki, is scheduled to begin in late May following
completion of the Kupe development wells.

A recent general release by another JV participant contained information on
Momoho and as a consequence of this NZOG believes its internal assessments
should be provided to shareholders.

The Momoho exploration well location is approximately 5.5kms from the Kupe
field development and production platform. The Momoho prospect sits between
the exploration well KS-4, which was a gas/light oil discovery, and KS-5,
another discovery, which flowed principally oil with some gas. The
hydrocarbon/water contacts for KS-4 and KS-5 exploration wells were at quite
different depths. This has a significant influence on the potential quantity
of oil/gas in the reservoir. This issue, along with other geological factors,
results in a wide range of potential outcomes for Momoho, including that no
hydrocarbons, or sub-commercial volumes, are present.

NZOG expects that the Momoho exploration prospect will contain a combination
of gas and liquids (oil and LPGs). Using a probabilistic assessment of
geological factors, NZOG's estimate of recoverable resources is 200 BCF
equivalent (combining gas, oil and LPG estimates) determined at the P50 level
(as likely as not) and assuming that the Momoho exploration well discovers
hydrocarbons.

In the event that Momoho is a commercial discovery a development may be
possible via the Kupe infrastructure

Company Announcements




New Zealand Oil and Gas Limited - Announcements




NZO
12/05/2008
MINE

REL: 0957 HRS New Zealand Oil and Gas Limited

MINE: NZO: Momoho Exploration Well Disclosure Notice

Drilling of the Momoho exploration well, contained within the Kupe Permit
38146 in offshore Taranaki, is scheduled to begin in late May following
completion of the Kupe development wells.

A recent general release by another JV participant contained information on
Momoho and as a consequence of this NZOG believes its internal assessments
should be provided to shareholders.

The Momoho exploration well location is approximately 5.5kms from the Kupe
field development and production platform. The Momoho prospect sits between
the exploration well KS-4, which was a gas/light oil discovery, and KS-5,
another discovery, which flowed principally oil with some gas. The
hydrocarbon/water contacts for KS-4 and KS-5 exploration wells were at quite
different depths. This has a significant influence on the potential quantity
of oil/gas in the reservoir. This issue, along with other geological factors,
results in a wide range of potential outcomes for Momoho, including that no
hydrocarbons, or sub-commercial volumes, are present.

NZOG expects that the Momoho exploration prospect will contain a combination
of gas and liquids (oil and LPGs). Using a probabilistic assessment of
geological factors, NZOG's estimate of recoverable resources is 200 BCF
equivalent (combining gas, oil and LPG estimates) determined at the P50 level
(as likely as not) and assuming that the Momoho exploration well discovers
hydrocarbons.

In the event that Momoho is a commercial discovery a development may be
possible via the Kupe infrastructure

now if 1 bcf =1 petrajoule=171935 boe
multiply by 200 then 15%
?equals 5 million barrels for nzo
My figures must be wrong becuase it could mean a 50% possibility of adding another 800million dollars of oil equivanent to nzo?
Please could someone check these figures

[Chalice]

"New Zealand's longest running insider trading case, which finally came to court last week, resumes after suggestions by an expert witness that some of the Taranaki basin's core deep gas and oil structures are connected.

Consultant petroleum geologist Thomas Haskill told the High Court at Auckland on Friday that the porous nature of sediment on the seabed meant gas in the Pohokura, Turangi, Mangahewa and Kowahi fields could be linked."

Given the unexpected and continuing performance of Tui and the location of Momoho WITHIN the Kupe discovery maybe we are looking at Tui and Kupe being single and therefore much larger fields rather than multiple fields?

[COLIN]

Fair comment Colin,

you're basically saying that NZO is making noises about regular annual dividends and that the recent pay-out was more of a bonus, so maybe our first 'regular' pay-out is still to come?

Not exactly, Arjay. What I was pointing out was that, according to the Company's statement in the latest Interim Report, the dividend paid out on 15 April is your 2007/08 dividend. You can expect another dividend in the 2008/09 year - just when that will be paid out is not stated.
Policy, of course, can always be changed.

[digger]

"New Zealand's longest running insider trading case, which finally came to court last week, resumes after suggestions by an expert witness that some of the Taranaki basin's core deep gas and oil structures are connected.

Consultant petroleum geologist Thomas Haskill told the High Court at Auckland on Friday that the porous nature of sediment on the seabed meant gas in the Pohokura, Turangi, Mangahewa and Kowahi fields could be linked."

Given the unexpected and continuing performance of Tui and the location of Momoho WITHIN the Kupe discovery maybe we are looking at Tui and Kupe being single and therefore much larger fields rather than multiple fields?


Mate it is one hell of a long way fron TUI to Momoho.Have a look at the NZO maps.Even i could not dream up such a beatifull story.

[Nitaa]

Not exactly, Arjay. What I was pointing out was that, according to the Company's statement in the latest Interim Report, the dividend paid out on 15 April is your 2007/08 dividend. You can expect another dividend in the 2008/09 year - just when that will be paid out is not stated.
Policy, of course, can always be changed.May even be a special dividend payout as well.

[Nitaa]

The sharks are still very much in a feeding frenzy. Hungry buying and pushing up the sp then small shareholders selling and taking their profits.. This has been going on for so long. How or how many out there with very big pockets are buying up.. I cant wait to see the SSH notices in late July or early Auguest depending on how long it takes to sort out all the option conversion unless the sk falls in of course.

[zac]

Why should it be 'sharks'? What I see is a steady volume of moderately sized transactions undertaken by shareholders positioning themselves for the run down to June 30. Add to this new buyers who have caught up with the NZO success story belatedly ( why NZO gets such little media attention is a mystery). For buyers there will continue to be a choice between the Ords or the OD's at a discount. For s/h the choice will be whether to sell Ords and ride the OD's or quit the OD's.

[Chalice]

Mate it is one hell of a long way fron TUI to Momoho.Have a look at the NZO maps.Even i could not dream up such a beatifull story.

Duncan - I wasn't implying that, I'm dumb not stupid...

I was implying that the three accumulations from which the initial four production wells have been developed for the Tui Oil Fields (notice the plural) - Pateke, Amokura and Tui may actually be one larger field and therefore may, hopefully, one day be represented on the schematic as one big green blob.
Ditto for prospects such as Momoho, Denby, Leith which sit outside of the Kupe CFA

[Nitaa]

Why should it be 'sharks'? What I see is a steady volume of moderately sized transactions undertaken by shareholders positioning themselves for the run down to June 30. Add to this new buyers who have caught up with the NZO success story belatedly ( why NZO gets such little media attention is a mystery). For buyers there will continue to be a choice between the Ords or the OD's at a discount. For s/h the choice will be whether to sell Ords and ride the OD's or quit the OD's.I am more alluding to the options that are being traded. The volume is suggesting that the bigger fish are entering nzo. Makes sense of course if they believe nzo is a good value share.

Normally around this time leading up to the conversion, sellers are scrambling to to sell their options due to the high cost of conversion. Normally this would put significant pressure on the option price and heads. What we are constantly seeing is pressure coming from the buyers not the other way around. As i said watch this space come late July early August

[trackers]

Tapis...

131.20 USD

=

171.638 NZD

http://www.upstreamonline.com/market_data/?id=markets_oil

Closer and closer to one million a day for NZO

[duncan macgregor]

Duncan - I wasn't implying that, I'm dumb not stupid...

I was implying that the three accumulations from which the initial four production wells have been developed for the Tui Oil Fields (notice the plural) - Pateke, Amokura and Tui may actually be one larger field and therefore may, hopefully, one day be represented on the schematic as one big green blob.
Ditto for prospects such as Momoho, Denby, Leith which sit outside of the Kupe CFA CHALICE, I know you all like having a go at poor old macdunk but this is getting as silly as the oil being all connected. DIGGER next time you wind them up make sure you let them know that i have nothing to do with it. I have got to read all this guff to keep the competition up to date roll on june the 30th. Macdunk

[duncan macgregor]

[QUOTE=duncan macgregor;199338][QUOTE=duncan macgregor;198900][QUOTE=duncan macgregor;197933][QUOTE=duncan macgregor;197516][QUOTE=duncan macgregor;197293]Competition to select NZO share price on conversion date June 30th
in the event of a tie the winner is the person with the correct score posting first
I will list you in posting order.
1,AMR 180c, 2, OILER 165c, 3,Macdunk 159c. 4,MATTYROO 158c.
5,SEAMUS 135c, 6,SERPIE 131c, 7, LIZ 120c, 8, STRAT157c.
9TRACKERS 168, 10, COLIN 170, 11,THE MACHINE 210c. 12,MALCOLM 200c.
13,SPOOK 172, 14,BIG BOB184c, 15,ZORBA 155c, 16, REMY 167c,
17 AMERICAN PSYCHO 175c 18 SHASTA 161c, 19RONTHEPOM 171c 20 PHAEDRUS 160.
21SHREWDY 169, 22 BERMUDA 149, 23 MORV 183c, 24 COALIE 188c
25 DIGGER 173c, 26 blank, 27 NITA 181c, 28 SUMMER NED 193c.
29 QOH 179c, 30 WK6332 225c 31 BALANCE $10-60 32 KS 162,
33 TOK3N 145c, 34 SHANE M 162.5c, 35CORRAN 156c, 36 MICK100 300c.
37 DSURF 154c, 38 SKEET 185c,39 MIBO 177c, 40 JAY 162c,
41 ZACMAN 187c, 42 GAMBLER33 115c, 43 ANUBUS144c, 44 BRUCETO9 164c.
45 romer 163c.46 HOOP 147c 47 RABBI 148c 48 ROTWEILLER 153c,
49 MINGEATHINAIOOS 150c,50 MANXMAN 195c, 51 MACDUFFY 146c, 52 BLOCKHEAD 198c,
53 777 226c,54 SWISSBOY 174c,55 AIRDALE166,56 CLIPS 178c,
57 PADDIE 196c,58 FOODEE 176, 59 BK152c,60 MPC182c,
61 STEVE 151,62 ONTHEMONEY 143, 63 LION 186, 64,TIM23 189c,
65 BOB C 190 66 RIF RAF 191c 67, OUT TO LUNCH 194 68 SEHNSUCHT888 192c,
69 PIETRADE 220c,70 ZAC 197c, 71,CAM 245C,72, CHALICE 214c,
73 GLENDOONIE 142c

[Nitaa]

My next belief is, at least 1 shark will buy the heads up to around 4 to 5 % and will back up the truck with options.

This is the most interesting time for nzo in its history.

word of caution. dont sell to the big fish

[bk]

bk: (Brent King?):

I'm glad you took the time and effort to blow holes in those supposed "7 Deadly Myths". That guy just slides over what must surely be the major issue, i.e. "Plenty more oil may be there, in some form or other, somewhere under the earth's skin, but its becoming increasingly a question of the cost and rate of extraction, and development of the technical capability of doing so (e.g. heating bitumen coverings, boring a kilometre through a salt crust, setting up underground refineries, drilling in incredibly deep water, etc., etc.)"
I used to be a "Peak Oil Sceptic" but no longer. (But I'm still a "Global Warming Sceptic" - I'm not that easily convinced on that particular new religion!)

no, not Brent King

I am a long term Peak Oil believer - but am not sure whether it will take the form of a long slide or a sharp drop. Humans being the way they are I do not think that we will take steps in time to avoid serious hardship.

I do also believe in Global Warming, or better Global Climate Change, but think that it might take a while before we really start to feel the pain there. Having said that, there are unknown tipping points which could create sudden havoc with the world as we know it, so it is dangerous the way we continue to live beyond our means.

In the light of the above I am studying ways to safeguard my family, and invest in oil and energy related stocks as surely the only way for such commodities is UP

Good to see that PPP started moving again; it was falling behind compared to NZO, but then again does not have Kupe and PRC in its lineage

[fish]

In the light of the above I am studying ways to safeguard my family, and invest in oil and energy related stocks as surely the only way for such commodities is UP

BK-Fully agree with above
I originally bought into nzog-partly as insurance- as I was building an energy efficient house-which included solar water and wetback .

Would appreciate expert feedback on the momoho announcement this morning

[peterb]

would appreciate expert feedback on the momoho announcement this morning

I'm not an expert, but I don't think the announcement is anything that we didn't know. Basically it was just restating its opinion about the potential for the drill clearly and accurately so that shareholders aren't caught up with any speculation or dodgy information about it. But obviously the message is that this could be something very positive: we've known that for a good while.

[COLIN]

I'm not an expert, but I don't think the announcement is anything that we didn't know. Basically it was just restating its opinion about the potential for the drill clearly and accurately so that shareholders aren't caught up with any speculation or dodgy information about it. But obviously the message is that this could be something very positive: we've known that for a good while.

I have no technical knowledge in this area, either, so I have to ask the question: does the expression "P50" mean "at the 50% confidence level" (as in probability theory, gallup polls, etc)? If so, it means very little, e.g. I could say "there is a 50% chance it might rain next week".

[srowe]

How long before the multitudes realize 'Jeez' maybe we should buy into N.Z.s major oil producer and turn the pain into gain

[Lion]

Part of today's announcement by NZOG . . . "A recent general release by another JV participant contained information on Momoho and as a consequence of this NZOG believes its internal assessments should be provided to shareholders."

OK, who was the other jv partner who made this statement? Not Origin, Genesis are an SOE (aren't they?) and I can't find any announcement from them. Mitsui are the only other, and they have only a small share - haven't bothered to check them.

And just what did this mysterious announcement say? It must have been something that needed some clarification. I'm curious.

Momoho start late May is about what was expected, wasn't it? A bit strange that the sp dipped a little despite POO rising at the end of last week.

[Sideshow Bob]

Bought more oppies today. Not enough to trade, and plan to convert.

[manxman]

How long before the multitudes realize 'Jeez' maybe we should buy into N.Z.s major oil producer and turn the pain into gain

In discussion this week with a holder who considered himself overweight in NZO

How much oil is your family going to use in the next X years.

What about the guys who ship in your groceries?

And your grog?

Then kick in say 5% of your investable funds. Are you sure you are overweight?

Anyone who complains about the price of petrol at the pump is probably underweight in oilers.

Mx

[small fish]

Anyone who complains about the price of petrol at the pump is probably underweight in oilers.

Mx

Im of the belief that these people don't even realise they can buy oilers.

[digger]

Duncan - I wasn't implying that, I'm dumb not stupid...

I was implying that the three accumulations from which the initial four production wells have been developed for the Tui Oil Fields (notice the plural) - Pateke, Amokura and Tui may actually be one larger field and therefore may, hopefully, one day be represented on the schematic as one big green blob.
Ditto for prospects such as Momoho, Denby, Leith which sit outside of the Kupe CFA

OK i pretty much agree with that.As Amokura and Pateke have the same oil water level they are the same field. That was the inational assesment but it got changed with no reason given to explain away the same water level. Momoho is to be drilled partly to see how connected the others are.

[digger]

For tomorrows sharetrader discussion I would like to ask DS 1/what are the plans for the OD exercise monies.
2/ Do we have any way of constantly measuring the water oil level at TUI. If this water oil level has not changed much or as much as expected it must give us some better understanding of TUI size. Note i am not talking about the water cut from recoverable liquides but the water level in place.
3/ I consider the thought of NZO talking of overseas acquistions very premature. It is a bit like a baby taking it first steps and then trying to run a 4 min mile. We have after many years just come into good money,surely it is better to become a top knowledgable oil company here in NZ where we clearly have the repretation of knowing what we are doing. I find overseas acquistions very reckless at this stage.
4/ I have never clearly understood where we stand with KUPE finance arrangements,as they were renotiated.From that time did we agree to only a inflation price increase as opposed to a world market increase.Will this agreement affect a successful Momoho development.Is there any link up here.
5/Inside the rules of NZX requirements is there anything that NZO can do to lesson the dilution effect of the NZOOD exercising.As an example could NZO buy options and turn them into head as treasury stock?

[tricha]

Im of the belief that these people don't even realise they can buy oilers.

Most of the population would not have a clue.

To the issue, NZO cheap or what? I bought my 1st lot in time to get the dividend and the interium report,
Discovering our Energy Future.

I only recently took the time to read this excellent report and the graph on page 4 makes for a very compelling story.

I hate to say this, but the title should have read,

Our Energy Future is Secured

10 years of production averaging above a million barrels a year equivalent, at $160 NZ a barrel.( as of now )
Then there is drilling upside and Pike River for a little icing.

So I secured a bit more of my future and bought another 10k of them. It should look a cheap investment in a years time.:rolleyes:

[the machine]

Part of today's announcement by NZOG . . . "A recent general release by another JV participant contained information on Momoho and as a consequence of this NZOG believes its internal assessments should be provided to shareholders."

OK, who was the other jv partner who made this statement? Not Origin, Genesis are an SOE (aren't they?) and I can't find any announcement from them. Mitsui are the only other, and they have only a small share - haven't bothered to check them.

And just what did this mysterious announcement say? It must have been something that needed some clarification. I'm curious.

Momoho start late May is about what was expected, wasn't it? A bit strange that the sp dipped a little despite POO rising at the end of last week.

origin detailed 100 bcf as momoho potential in a recent presentation to mcquarie - per asx announcements

m

M

[NOCASH]

GOOD old, nz oil and gas. I'm Back, and still have a large amount of holdings in nzo.

[COLIN]

origin detailed 100 bcf as momoho potential in a recent presentation to mcquarie - per asx announcements

m

M

So, NZO's internal assessment, at 200 bcf, is double that of Origin's? We seem to believe these days that NZO's forward projections tend towards the conservative side; on that basis, is Origin ultra-cautious?

Its all assuming hydrocarbons are found, of course, and I'm still a little bit unsure as to precisely what that "P50 (as likely as not)" means - I am assuming its just another way of saying "there's a 50/50 chance". But can someone enlighten me, please.

[The BOWMAN]

3/ I consider the thought of NZO talking of overseas acquistions very premature. It is a bit like a baby taking it first steps and then trying to run a 4 min mile. We have after many years just come into good money,surely it is better to become a top knowledgable oil company here in NZ where we clearly have the repretation of knowing what we are doing. I find overseas acquistions very reckless at this stage.


I agree. NZO is like a little shrimp in the ocean when talking about the international oil industry. I certainly don't want to gamble in the VIP lounge when I only have couple of thousand dollars in the pocket. Return the money to shareholders if there is no good investment opportunity. There won't be any issue raising money if good opportunities coming up giving it now has some good track records. Don't throw the good money into bad like Hellaby Holding has done.

[COLIN]

For tomorrows sharetrader discussion I would like to ask DS 1/what are the plans for the OD exercise monies.
2/ Do we have any way of constantly measuring the water oil level at TUI. If this water oil level has not changed much or as much as expected it must give us some better understanding of TUI size. Note i am not talking about the water cut from recoverable liquides but the water level in place.
3/ I consider the thought of NZO talking of overseas acquistions very premature. It is a bit like a baby taking it first steps and then trying to run a 4 min mile. We have after many years just come into good money,surely it is better to become a top knowledgable oil company here in NZ where we clearly have the repretation of knowing what we are doing. I find overseas acquistions very reckless at this stage.
4/ I have never clearly understood where we stand with KUPE finance arrangements,as they were renotiated.From that time did we agree to only a inflation price increase as opposed to a world market increase.Will this agreement affect a successful Momoho development.Is there any link up here.
5/Inside the rules of NZX requirements is there anything that NZO can do to lesson the dilution effect of the NZOOD exercising.As an example could NZO buy options and turn them into head as treasury stock?

Quite a list, Digger, and should elicit some useful responses.
Someone also needs to ask whether the Coy is prepared to say anything about how they will go about disengaging from PRC. They have stated in the past that they do not see PRC as a long-term fit. Is that still their policy stance? And have they thought of an "in specie" distribution of their PRC shares to NZO shareholders? (A better proposition than selling the PRC shares for cash - when we NZO shareholders are wary of the Company having so much cash already sloshing around and we're worried they might spend it recklessly.)

[the machine]

nzo website shows approx 12.2m barrels produced fromyui to may 8 - that last .2m barrels was damm quick - like 4 days.

the "approx" is the tricky bit.

roll onto may 27 and one would expect the 13m barrelsto be produced

m

[tricha]

nzo website shows approx 12.2m barrels produced fromyui to may 8 - that last .2m barrels was damm quick - like 4 days.

the "approx" is the tricky bit.

roll onto may 27 and one would expect the 13m barrelsto be produced

m

Probably the only company worth owning in NZ Machine. :rolleyes:
ShareChat News: Momoho well nears drilling date


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New Zealand Oil & Gas Limited http://charts.iguana2.com/sharechat/chart/3m/NZSE/NZO/stock Intra-day (javascript:chartrange('NZO', 'NZSE', 'intra')) 3 month (javascript:chartrange('NZO', 'NZSE', 'chart/3m')) 1 year (javascript:chartrange('NZO', 'NZSE', 'chart/1y')) 2 year (javascript:chartrange('NZO', 'NZSE', 'chart/2y'))

Current Quote:
NZO $1.62 -0.01
(quotes delayed 20 minutes)
Price when article published: $1.62

By NZPA
Monday 12th May 2008


Drilling of New Zealand Oil & Gas interest, Momoho, is due to begin off Taranaki later this month.
The exploration well, which is covered by a Kupe permit, is located about 5.5km from the Kupe light oil and gas condensate platform.
Although it is unclear at this stage what kind, if any, hydrocarbons are present, NZOG expects that Momoho will contain a combination of gas and liquids (oil and LPGs), possibly 200 billion cubic feet equivalent (to gas), with a 50% chance of recovery.
That is about half of the size of Kupe's central field, which is thought to have about 400 billion cubic feet equivalent.
While the greatest volume of energy out of Kupe will be in gas, about two-thirds of Kupe's estimated value should be in oil, using current prices.
NZOG said in the event that Momoho was a commercial discovery, a development might be possible via the Kupe infrastructure.
The listed energy company, which owns 15% of Momoho and of the Kupe joint venture, said in April that Kupe was now over two-thirds complete.
The company also owns 12.5% of the Tui oil field and 31% of listed Pike River Coal, which hopes to begin production mid-year.
NZOG reported a half-year profit to December of $41.4 million up from $500,000 a year earlier.
NZOG shares are hovering just below a year high of $1.67 set last Thursday, and were flat at $1.63 in mid-afternoon trade. http://www.sharechat.co.nz/images/nzpa04.gif
Get quotes (http://www.sharechat.co.nz/cgi-bin/quotelink?symbol=nzo) for New Zealand Oil & Gas Limited (NZX: nzo (http://www.sharechat.co.nz/cgi-bin/quotelink.pl?symbol=nzo))

Recent ShareChat News articles on New Zealand Oil & Gas Limited:
NZOG ponders how to spend war chest as Tui keeps pumping (http://www.sharechat.co.nz/news/scnews/article.php/47bcb06f)
NZOG March quarter revenue $58.2m (http://www.sharechat.co.nz/news/scnews/article.php/f8140b23)

[zorba]

.
Questions for interview with David Salisbury -- today is the day for the interview ?

(1) What is the projected annual JV operating cost for the Kupe project once all capital and start-up work is completed and gas and liquids are flowing through to pipelines / tankers.
In otherwords Kupe operating costs free of start-up vagaries, and once teething troubles are over -- ie projected full year JV operating costs for say 2010 and beyond ?

(2) Is the Kupe project currently on time and on budget ?

(3) What is the current Capital cost of the Kupe project, including working capital.

(4) Will NZOG carry any debt allocated to the Kupe project as from 2010 onwards. If so how much approximately.

(5) If Kupe debt is to be carried, why not pay it down with Tui cash, thereby strengthening the company's balance sheet etc. Could replace with lines of credit etc for use in M&A ??

With Thanks,
Zorba

PS: Also pleaese sombody remind me who is doing the interview, and is it being done by ShareTrader or is it on ShareChat ?

[tim23]

Colin - I suggested the PRC distribution recently (like they did with PPP) and most thought unlikely, I think its highly likely.

[duncan macgregor]

It looks like the sp is being held back sooner than i expected by the options. I expected a retracement with about three weeks to go with people cashing up to convert. I can see no other logical reason for the retracement other than that, even in a nervious market. Macdunk

[COLIN]

Colin - I suggested the PRC distribution recently (like they did with PPP) and most thought unlikely, I think its highly likely.

It would further endear the NZO Board to its patient shareholders.
Isn't it interesting how we haven't had any real grumblings for months, about Mr Radford and his merry men. There was a period when this forum used to heap daily abuse on him.

[COLIN]

It looks like the sp is being held back sooner than i expected by the options. I expected a retracement with about three weeks to go with people cashing up to convert. I can see no other logical reason for the retracement other than that, even in a nervious market. Macdunk

Yep. The panic is setting in. Silly people. Great opportunities coming up to buy some cheap options.

[Bilo]

It looks like the sp is being held back sooner than i expected by the options. I expected a retracement with about three weeks to go with people cashing up to convert. I can see no other logical reason for the retracement other than that, even in a nervious market. Macdunk

This sort of loose and negative comment on Share Chat wouldn't help those trying to find the money, and tell those who are buying up to take it slowly:

The company expected a solid take up of its 139 million options by shareholders by June 30, with the conversion price of $1.50 against NZOG's share price around $1.60.

In the unlikely event that all the options were taken up, NZOG would have an equity injection of $208 million, for which it was developing plans.

"If the option money comes in on a large scale, at $100m plus, that may force us to start looking abroad in terms of the scale of opportunities that we need," Roberts said.

And it confirms the suspicion that NZO doesn't need the money and has given inadequate consideration towards how to put it to good use...:mad:

[fish]

For tomorrows sharetrader discussion I would like to ask DS 1/what are the plans for the OD exercise monies.
2/ Do we have any way of constantly measuring the water oil level at TUI. If this water oil level has not changed much or as much as expected it must give us some better understanding of TUI size. Note i am not talking about the water cut from recoverable liquides but the water level in place.
3/ I consider the thought of NZO talking of overseas acquistions very premature. It is a bit like a baby taking it first steps and then trying to run a 4 min mile. We have after many years just come into good money,surely it is better to become a top knowledgable oil company here in NZ where we clearly have the repretation of knowing what we are doing. I find overseas acquistions very reckless at this stage.
4/ I have never clearly understood where we stand with KUPE finance arrangements,as they were renotiated.From that time did we agree to only a inflation price increase as opposed to a world market increase.Will this agreement affect a successful Momoho development.Is there any link up here.
5/Inside the rules of NZX requirements is there anything that NZO can do to lesson the dilution effect of the NZOOD exercising.As an example could NZO buy options and turn them into head as treasury stock?

Digger-good questions
Is there anywhere we can see the answers to your questions

[blockhead]

This sort of loose and negative comment on Share Chat wouldn't help those trying to find the money, and tell those who are buying up to take it slowly:


And it confirms the suspicion that NZO doesn't need the money and has given inadequate consideration towards how to put it to good use...:mad:

hardly the worst problem in the world for a company to have though Bilo, there are many options available to any entity flush with cash, there are limited options when there is no cash. Don't be afraid to register your concerns with the Co, thats we should all do,...we own the shares !!

[airedale]

Hi Fish, keep an eye on www. Sharechat>investor interviews. It should show up there. Don't know how long before they post the interview.

[Nitaa]

It looks like the sp is being held back sooner than i expected by the options. I expected a retracement with about three weeks to go with people cashing up to convert. I can see no other logical reason for the retracement other than that, even in a nervious market. Macdunk
Hey md. good to see a reasonable post.. you used the owrd logic here. Heres some good advice. Never rely on logic when trying to understand short term movement. It will suck you in and spit you out in bubbles. The market has no emotions only the people that buy and sell the stocks do.

[digger]

Digger-good questions
Is there anywhere we can see the answers to your questions

The problem Fish is that i have only put the questions here as very time i tried to use the contact given it did not work . However i will email DS and ask him to include all questions on sharetrader as well

[digger]

Ok i have emailed DS and have asked him to include the answers on sharetrader as well. Others like myself my have had problems getting through.

[digger]

It looks like the sp is being held back sooner than i expected by the options. I expected a retracement with about three weeks to go with people cashing up to convert. I can see no other logical reason for the retracement other than that, even in a nervious market. Macdunk

Again i do not see it as you do DM. To me it is the old big buyer withdrawing and reselling a few to depress the price before reentering and scooping up a large number of scared sellers. This exercising of the OD's is likely the last great opportunity for inst to take a grab of a top preforming company at a cut rate. This is why i have asked the company through the invester interview to have a look at buying options exercising them to add to treasury stock.The idea under NZX rules may not be possible but if it can be done it would have hugh benifits to head holders as the insts would then have to buy on market as they dam well should have to in any case. I hope once the OD's are out of the way we have not more options as NZO now has income.

[duncan macgregor]

Digger i see options to raise money, then paying out a dividend with the expectation of paying more dividends, is at cross purposes. Take it in one hand weakening the share price, then paying it back to the very people that paid you is a stupid way to do business. The share price regardless of what level it is at must be weakened at conversion time by the very nature of the game. They dont need money unless they are about to get into some bigger new projects, so we are left with a wait and see what happens next situation. Macdunk

[digger]

Digger i see options to raise money, then paying out a dividend with the expectation of paying more dividends, is at cross purposes. Take it in one hand weakening the share price, then paying it back to the very people that paid you is a stupid way to do business. The share price regardless of what level it is at must be weakened at conversion time by the very nature of the game. They dont need money unless they are about to get into some bigger new projects, so we are left with a wait and see what happens next situation. Macdunk

DM i said nothing about expecting to pay out a dividend. read the post before you reply.

[bk]

I see someone sold 90,000 NZO for 128.6 - surely that is a mistake? What happens if you make a type like that - tough luck??

[trackers]

I see someone sold 90,000 NZO for 128.6 - surely that is a mistake? What happens if you make a type like that - tough luck??

Doubt that happened...source?

It would sell at the highest existing sell order, which I highly doubt is 128.6. Even if it were, the brokers often cancel orders that are quite significantly higher or lower than the last traded price.

[bk]

see sale at 09:24

[digger]

just received a message from Chris Roberts saying that DS was interviewed for about 45 mins and the results will be posted on sharechat websit in a day or two. Anyone like myself that just posted on sharetrader might find their questions unanswered as we were all supposed to post on sharechat.

[Phaedrus]

That'll just be a typo, BK.
Should read 158.6 not 128.6.

[777]

Last interview Sharechat did with NZO in 2004

http://www.sharechat.co.nz/features/iinterviews/article.php/00d00a28

[JMKC]

It was an international trade crossed at the Oz price by accident.

[sideline]

That'll just be a typo, BK.
Should read 158.6 not 128.6.

Or, since it was an international trade they might have plugged
in the price of the Australian leg of the trade (in AU$) in by mistake

[tim23]

Exert from Salvus (SAM) monthly report

New Zealand Oil & Gas Ltd (NZOG) - relative outperformance +7.2%: NZOG has
stakes in three major developments: the Tui oil field, the Pike River coal
field and the Kupe gas-condensate field. The growth of the company is tied to
commodities that are performing extremely strongly. We also believe the
company has significant option value in its existing exploration portfolio
that is not adequately reflected in the current share price.

[steve fleming]

Huntley upgrade out tonite:

SUMMARY



We are raising our FY08 and FY09 NPAT forecasts for NZO to NZ$123m and NZ$58m respectively as we have significantly lifted our short and long term price forecasts for oil and gas.
NZO has 139m NZ$1.50 options outstanding that are currently in-the-money. This could potentially result in cash infusion of NZ$200m. Funds will be deployed towards new exploration opportunities. NZO has set itself an ambitious target of lifting production reserves to 25mb by 2012.
We are raising our fair value to NZ$1.73 from NZ$1.35, reflecting our forecasts for oil and gas prices. Our valuation is predicated on Net Present Value calculation, for Tui, Kupe and other exploration projects. It also includes NZO’s 31% investment in Pike River.

[Wilkins_Micawber]

From NZO website ...
"Up to 13 May 2008 total oil production was approximately 12.4 million barrels"
12 millionth barrel was on 5th May so absolute worst case scenario is 350,000 (else website would show approx 12.3 million barrels) / 9 days (if 12m'th barrel was first thing on 5th May) = avg of 38,888 barrels per day. absolute best case would be say 450,000 barrels / 8 days = avg 56,250 barrels per day.

So the avg barrels per day from 5th to 13th May is somewhere between 38,888 and 56,250, with the median figure being 47,569 per day.

Oh yeah, and they are still saying "The 'water cut' - the amount of water being recovered with the oil - has been significantly less than predicted, allowing a high daily production rate to continue. However, production rates are forecast to decline in coming months."

[COLIN]

From NZO website ...
"Up to 13 May 2008 total oil production was approximately 12.4 million barrels"
12 millionth barrel was on 5th May so absolute worst case scenario is 350,000 (else website would show approx 12.3 million barrels) / 9 days (if 12m'th barrel was first thing on 5th May) = avg of 38,888 barrels per day. absolute best case would be say 450,000 barrels / 8 days = avg 56,250 barrels per day.

So the avg barrels per day from 5th to 13th May is somewhere between 38,888 and 56,250, with the median figure being 47,569 per day.

Oh yeah, and they are still saying "The 'water cut' - the amount of water being recovered with the oil - has been significantly less than predicted, allowing a high daily production rate to continue. However, production rates are forecast to decline in coming months."

Bear in mind, of course, that the vessel can only take a max of 50,000 barrels per day, giving a median figure of around 44,000 barrels, on your calculations.

[Wilkins_Micawber]

Bear in mind, of course, that the vessel can only take a max of 50,000 barrels per day, giving a median figure of around 44,000 barrels, on your calculations.

Good point Colin, but it doesn't lower the median of 47,000, just means that the max can't have exceeded 50,000 barrels per day.

[airedale]

I notice on the Sharechat daily news links that Salvus Investments have increased their stake in NZO and AWE.

(http://www.sharechat.co.nz/education/books.php)



http://ad.nz.doubleclick.net/ad/N2758.Sharechat/B2888972;sz=760x120;ord=[timestamp]? (http://www.tarawera.co.nz/tams/www/delivery/ck.php?oaparams=2__bannerid=1099__zoneid=57__cb=d4 d614f07b__maxdest=http://ad.nz.doubleclick.net/jump/N2758.Sharechat/B2888972;sz=760x120;ord=[timestamp]?)at News: Salvus increases energy stocks weightings



Salvus Strategic Investments Limited - http://charts.iguana2.com/sharechat/chart/3m/NZSE/SAM/stock Intra-day (http://javascript<b></b>:chartrange('SAM', 'NZSE', 'intra'))3 month (http://javascript<b></b>:chartrange('SAM', 'NZSE', 'chart/3m'))1 year (http://javascript<b></b>:chartrange('SAM', 'NZSE', 'chart/1y'))2 year (http://javascript<b></b>:chartrange('SAM', 'NZSE', 'chart/2y'))



-By Philip Macalister
Wednesday 14th May 2008

Listed investment company Salvus is increasing its weightings to two energy stocks due to a strengthening in global commodity prices.
The stocks are New Zealand Oil & Gas and ASX-listed Energy World Corporation. (EWC)
"The growth of both these companies is tied to commodities that are performing extremely strongly," Salvus says.
NZOG provides exposure to the oil, gas and metallurgical coal markets and EWC provides exposure to the LNG market.
"Despite the mounting evidence of a substantial slowdown in the US and the OECD, strong demand growth from non-OECD emerging markets combined with current supply-side constraints lead us to believe that the possibility of a pull back in commodity prices in the near term is relatively low."
Both these stocks were good performers for Salvus in the past month. During that time Salvus;s net asset value rose 5.7&#37; compared to an increase of 6.1% for the benchmark NZX SmallCap Capital Index.
Salvus says although it underperformed in the month its year-to-date performance "is very strong with the NAV outperforming the benchmark by 7.7%."
The other stock to do well in the month was Comvita which showed relative outperformance of 45.6%:
"Comvita outperformed over the month on the back of expectations of a weaker New Zealand dollar as a result of a slowing domestic economy."
The portfolio's laggard was Abano even though there was "no new fundamental news" to effect the stock.
Core holdings as at 9 May 2008:
Abano Healthcare Group 20.0%
Methven 15.9%
New Zealand Oil & Gas 14.1%
Energy World Corporation 14.1%
Wellington Drive Technologies: 6.4%
Hallenstein Glasson 6.3%
Mainfreight: 5.2%
Cash: 2.6% Get quotes (http://www.sharechat.co.nz/cgi-bin/quotelink?symbol=sam) for Salvus Strategic Investments Limited - (NZX: sam (http://www.sharechat.co.nz/cgi-bin/quotelink.pl?symbol=sam))

Latest ShareChat News headlines (http://www.sharechat.co.nz/news/scnews/)
http://www.sharechat.co.nz/images/sccircle-10.gif (http://www.sharechat.co.nz/) sharechat home (http://www.sharechat.co.nz/)
to the Terms and Conditions (http://www.sharechat.co.nz/aboutus/tandc.php). http://secure-nz.imrworldwide.com/cgi-bin/m?rnd=1210803507071&ci=nz-tarawera&cg=sharechat&cc=0&sr=1024x768&cd=16&lg=en-nz&je=y&ck=y&tz=12&ct=lan&hp=n&si=http%3A//www.sharechat.co.nz/news/scnews/article.php/29dd2f02&rp=http%3A//www.sharechat.co.nz/news/dailynews.php

[Bilo]

This NZOOD option issue is indeed unusual and may not play out as other NZO option issues.

NZO does not need cash to do as they have been, growing capitalisation steadily from a small base. They say that they need this cash to give growth opportunities a quantum boost. It is always better to be looking for more money when you don't need it!
There is an argument that the share market (major players) factored the increased share capital into the share price of NZOOD+NZO when they were issued.
The phenomenal performance of the Tui development and the timing of the high oil prices has blown away share valuations based on PE ratio.
DCF valuations have erred on the very conservative (hopelessly misguided might be more appropriate) side of oil/gas price inflation.
The blockbuster prices for coking coal no-one ever dreamed about until they were brought into focus by the Queensland mines flooded adding to the woes of increasing mine development costs and insufficient port and rail infrastructure. Should add to the NZ HCC quality premium.
The NZD heading south v USD rapidly.
Kupe Area looking better all the time as wet gas becomes very much prized and profitable.
Taranaki Region still under-explored and finds like Tui and Maui are encouraging to explorers – NZO has opportunities in front of its nose.
Increased share market liquidity from greater use of Margin loans and Contracts for Difference CFDs.
Unlike past conversions the value in NZO is more obvious – copious cash.
To conclude: IMO the value is there to support a much higher share price at the increased capitalisation (plus some). So Tony Radford's whim of a few years ago may yet raise him to "RGV" Resource Guru Visionary status - from much maligned.:D

As they say in Australia - winners are grinners

History may show that Kiwi investors have been seeing problems that shouldn’t have been a consideration, again.

[sideline]

I notice on the Sharechat daily news links that Salvus Investments have increased their stake in NZO and AWE.


not AWE but EWC, whatever that is.

[COLIN]

not AWE but EWC, whatever that is.

Energy World Corporation - LNG is the attraction there.

[fish]

[QUOTE=Bilo;200111]This NZOOD option issue is indeed unusual and may not play out as other NZO option issues.
My feeling entirely

So much could happen-almost all of it likely to be positive

And all the time nzo income from tui is going up and up and up

Nz dollar in free fall this morning and Tapis at $1.30

[Dr_Who]

NZO should be looking at buying out some of the cheap small cap oilers in Aussie that has been hit hard by the Opes Prime saga. Flushed with cash NZO can add to their reserve and revenue by M&A aussie oilers. It just makes sense.

[duncan macgregor]

[QUOTE=duncan macgregor;199545][QUOTE=duncan macgregor;199338][QUOTE=duncan macgregor;198900][QUOTE=duncan macgregor;197933][QUOTE=duncan macgregor;197516][QUOTE=duncan macgregor;197293]Competition to select NZO share price on conversion date June 30th
in the event of a tie the winner is the person with the correct score posting first
I will list you in posting order.
1,AMR 180c, 2, OILER 165c, 3,Macdunk 159c. 4,MATTYROO 158c.
5,SEAMUS 135c, 6,SERPIE 131c, 7, LIZ 120c, 8, STRAT157c.
9TRACKERS 168, 10, COLIN 170, 11,THE MACHINE 210c. 12,MALCOLM 200c.
13,SPOOK 172, 14,BIG BOB184c, 15,ZORBA 155c, 16, REMY 167c,
17 AMERICAN PSYCHO 175c 18 SHASTA 161c, 19RONTHEPOM 171c 20 PHAEDRUS 160.
21SHREWDY 169, 22 BERMUDA 149, 23 MORV 183c, 24 COALIE 188c
25 DIGGER 173c, 26 blank, 27 NITA 181c, 28 SUMMER NED 193c.
29 QOH 179c, 30 WK6332 225c 31 BALANCE $10-60 32 KS 162,
33 TOK3N 145c, 34 SHANE M 162.5c, 35CORRAN 156c, 36 MICK100 300c.
37 DSURF 154c, 38 SKEET 185c,39 MIBO 177c, 40 JAY 162c,
41 ZACMAN 187c, 42 GAMBLER33 115c, 43 ANUBUS144c, 44 BRUCETO9 164c.
45 romer 163c.46 HOOP 147c 47 RABBI 148c 48 ROTWEILLER 153c,
49 MINGEATHINAIOOS 150c,50 MANXMAN 195c, 51 MACDUFFY 146c, 52 BLOCKHEAD 198c,
53 777 226c,54 SWISSBOY 174c,55 AIRDALE166,56 CLIPS 178c,
57 PADDIE 196c,58 FOODEE 176, 59 BK152c,60 MPC182c,
61 STEVE 151,62 ONTHEMONEY 143, 63 LION 186, 64,TIM23 189c,
65 BOB C 190 66 RIF RAF 191c 67, OUT TO LUNCH 194 68 SEHNSUCHT888 192c,
69 PIETRADE 220c,70 ZAC 197c, 71,CAM 245C,72, CHALICE 214c,
73 GLENDOONIE 142c

[COLIN]

[QUOTE=Bilo;200111]This NZOOD option issue is indeed unusual and may not play out as other NZO option issues.
My feeling entirely

So much could happen-almost all of it likely to be positive

And all the time nzo income from tui is going up and up and up

Nz dollar in free fall this morning and Tapis at $1.30

One thing that has struck me, looking at the current bid and offer quotes on the options, is that the average parcel, both offered and sought, is almost 100,000, which leads me to deduce that traders are having a right royal time in there, range trading, where only a cent movement can give them a gain (or a loss) of 10% (less transaction costs). Its fertile ground for them.
Your average retail investor would not have acquired anything like 100,000 options when they were first handed out, so they are generally not the ones dumping their options because they can't fund their exercise rights.

[Dr_Who]

[quote=duncan macgregor;199545][quote=duncan macgregor;199338][quote=duncan macgregor;198900][quote=duncan macgregor;197933][quote=duncan macgregor;197516] Still just over five weeks to enter if you are not in. One very obvious number left if you stop and think about it.

$1.51? LOL

Just enough for the punters to convert their options. :D

[duncan macgregor]

[quote=duncan macgregor;200156][quote=duncan macgregor;199545][quote=duncan macgregor;199338][quote=duncan macgregor;198900][quote=duncan macgregor;197933]

$1.51? LOL

Just enough for the punters to convert their options. :D SORRY DOC you are not on to it. Its something that might very well be a winner have another think about it. Macdunk

[bermuda]

Hoop,

Thanks for all those graphs. Dont believe the 2009 forecasts.

It really cheeses me that these so called economists call oil a commodity.

IT IS A PRECIOUS FINITE RESOURCE.

[Steve]

$1.51? LOL

Just enough for the punters to convert their options. :D

That's MY pick! :p

[tim23]

There has been concern expressed about the options being converted creating unrequired inflow of cash but what I like is that it means that Tui/Kupe/PRC are looking better than the company ever imagined. But it does beg the question of what they will do with all that dough, thats why I am pickimg a distribution of the PRC shares.

[zac]

AWE up strongly on a turnover of $10 mill. Something in the wind?

[shasta]

AWE up strongly on a turnover of $10 mill. Something in the wind?

Zac

AWE is probably moving based on the proposed merger with ARQ.

[zac]

That may be but the ARQ proposal is yesterday's news. Just a feeling........

[Dr_Who]

I see some possible weakness in NZO sp leading up to options expiring. Punters have to fork out abit of dole to exercise the options. Thats is why I chose $1.51.

[AMR]

AWE broke out ages ago from 370...this is expected as all the sellers are gone. I would have gone it but I spend all my money on VPEO and OEL.

[trendy]

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=aV._LdPUcaNU&refer=home

Petrobras Hires 80% of Deepwater Rigs, Inflates Rents (Update1)

By Joe Carroll
More Photos/Details

May 15 (Bloomberg) -- Petroleo Brasileiro SA, Brazil's state-controlled oil company, leased about 80 percent of the world's deepest-drilling offshore rigs to explore prospects including the Western Hemisphere's biggest discovery in decades.

Petrobras, as the Rio de Janeiro-based company is known, is hiring rigs that can drill in at least 3,000 meters (9,800 feet) of water, Chief Executive Officer Jose Sergio Gabrielli said in an interview last week. The world has 21 such vessels, according to Rigzone.com, which tracks the offshore drilling industry.

The company's ``insatiable'' demand is forcing producers including Exxon Mobil Corp. and BP Plc to pay more as they compete for the remaining units, said Kjell Erik Eilertsen and Truls Olsen, analysts at Fearnley Fonds AS in Oslo. Explorers that don't have rigs under contract may delay projects or pay rents of more than $600,000 a day.

``The oil majors have their backs against the wall as Petrobras has aggressively locked up significant rig capacity,'' said Omar Nokta, head of maritime research at Dahlman Rose & Co. in New York.

Petrobras is negotiating for as many as 17 more vessels to probe the Tupi discovery and neighboring fields, said Bill Herbert, an analyst at Simmons & Co. International in Houston. The company already controls almost seven times as much capacity as the next biggest user of rigs that can drill in 7,500 feet of water, according to research by Dahlman Rose.

Auctions Suspended

Brazil is suspending auctions of new exploration blocks until at least 2009 because the industry lacks the equipment needed to expand, Mines and Energy Minister Edison Lobao said today in an interview. Producers need to start work on the leases they already have before Brazil can contemplate a new sale or revive a stalled auction, he said.

[Chippie]

Here is the Sharechat Investor interview, looks okay

New Zealand Oil & Gas
16/05/2008

http://www.sharechat.co.nz/features/iinterviews/

[the machine]

Here is the Sharechat Investor interview, looks okay

New Zealand Oil & Gas
16/05/2008

http://www.sharechat.co.nz/features/iinterviews/

good read and answer a few questions where they can within JV confidentuality agreements.

M

[trackers]

Here is the Sharechat Investor interview, looks okay

New Zealand Oil & Gas
16/05/2008

http://www.sharechat.co.nz/features/iinterviews/



SC: Are you expecting the Tui reserves estimate to be revised upwards? By how much?
DS: The way I'm going to answer that is when we have the completed work, we will make a public announcement. In advance of that, I don't think it's appropriate to give a direct answer to that question. The modelling work is on-going. We expect it to be completed fairly shortly so there can be an announcement to the market ahead of the end of June.





Ahead of the end of June...good news for the oppy holders out there

[Hoop]

Hoop,

Thanks for all those graphs. Don't believe the 2009 forecasts.

It really cheeses me that these so called economists call oil a commodity.

IT IS A PRECIOUS FINITE RESOURCE.

Thanks Bermuda
I thought I would publish the 7 myths of oil price here to show that factual statistics can warp the truth to nearly 180 degrees as in this case. One extreme mother of an example (a gem) didn't you think Digger BK :) . I googled the facts and couldn't fault it, yet I know from research in my own mind this was not what I perceive to be happening and was sceptical. One interesting graph is the diminishing amount of oil used as technology gets better .. Auntie Helen may use this to great effect to convince voters that carbon credits (debits) isn't a problem and how NZ Labour Govt energy saving policies have worked ;).

I thought it would be good example to show that investors can put their rose tinted glasses on and manufacture any factual data they like to make a share look good.

The 7 Myth example is why I will never trust the media as a whole. Heavy media exposure can brainwash.. a reason why the Media could be considered dangerous (extreme example of course) in intentional swaying the thinking of populations to think the same way as the media or people behind the media intend..common present day examples are political campaigns and moral issues for the "common good" such as smoking drinking obesity speeding etc.

With the case concerning NZO...The share price was until recently(probably still is) undervalued mainly because of poor unpredictable management. This management factor I believe hasn't changed, investor perception has changed nearly a 180 degree swing from various media* lately from pessimism to optimism

*(Note:- sharetrader posts is a part of media)

..so my argument is......... beware of the 7 myths. ;)



Strange as it may appear, Oil is classified as a commodity and its market is included in the commodity index.
List of tradable commodities (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_traded_commodities)Oil is classified within the Energy group of commodities.

The weightings of each commodity group to make up the various commodity indexes. Energy grouping (incl oil) ranges from 74&#37; to 33% see weightings chart (http://www.indexinvestor.com/Free/Commodities.php?gclid=CIjTp9DlqZMCFRiXiQodHB-14w) within the various indexes used

[digger]

Here is the Sharechat Investor interview, looks okay

New Zealand Oil & Gas
16/05/2008

http://www.sharechat.co.nz/features/iinterviews/

Just read it
The tui regrade before end of june as already commented on
The second thing i learned is that the 4 TUI wells are in rotation but all 4 are now in use. maybe that is why oil has increased from 41000 to about 44 to 45 now.

[arjay]

Interesting how DS answered the question on whether there would be a final dividend. There's wiggle room there so they must still be deciding.

[upside_umop]

Interesting how DS answered the question on whether there would be a final dividend. There's wiggle room there so they must still be deciding.

We've talked about this before on ST, that there will be no final dividend.
I interpreted that interview as saying 'the dividend we paid is the only one for this financial year....' ie no final dividend.

[winner69]

We've talked about this before on ST, that there will be no final dividend.
I interpreted that interview as saying 'the dividend we paid is the only one for this financial year....' ie no final dividend.

Financial year ends 30 June so it is certain that there will not be another one paid this financial year ........ the 'wiggle room' as somebody called it is that they have yet to work out whether they want to pay another dividend based on the financials to June 30th .... if so paid sometime in Oct/Nov or something

[upside_umop]

To me that doesnt make sense winner...a dividend paid in oct/nov would mean it was the final dividend, which DS said would not be happening...or it would be an outright special dividend.

when the 5cent dividend was announced, it said along the lines...'that was the annual dividend and future dividends would be paid annually using a reasonable proportion of the profit..'

given that, i would think they, NZO would keep it consistent and pay the next dividend at the interim results.

[sideline]

We've talked about this before on ST, that there will be no final dividend.
I interpreted that interview as saying 'the dividend we paid is the only one for this financial year....' ie no final dividend.

Dividend hopefulls: My understanding is: the 5c WAS the final divi for the current financial year.
However, a new financial year is starting soon (1 July), so there stands nothing in the way of an
interim divi later, maybe towards the end of the year.

[Nitaa]

To me that doesnt make sense winner...a dividend paid in oct/nov would mean it was the final dividend, which DS said would not be happening...or it would be an outright special dividend.

when the 5cent dividend was announced, it said along the lines...'that was the annual dividend and future dividends would be paid annually using a reasonable proportion of the profit..'

given that, i would think they, NZO would keep it consistent and pay the next dividend at the interim results.always the possible of a special dividend is it not?

My opinions i would sooner rather reinvest. In saying that they are ozzing with cash and especially if they sell pike

[peterfindlay]

Financial year ends 30 June so it is certain that there will not be another one paid this financial year ........ the 'wiggle room' as somebody called it is that they have yet to work out whether they want to pay another dividend based on the financials to June 30th .... if so paid sometime in Oct/Nov or something

This is a difficult scenario to see happening as it would be inequitable to the existing shareholders to be considered in the same light as new shareholders (i.e. new capital sourced from the option conversion on or near 30 June 2008). However, if the company wanted to pay an additional "interim dividend", it could be announced prior to 30 June 2008, say after the Tui reserves upgrade, and trade ex dividend on or around 25 June 2008. Only early converters of the options would then get the dividend. It would have the advantage of maintaining a firm share price, and could be considered an incentive for the options to be taken up early. Perhaps this is a price the company is willing to pay for the options to be converted. Alternatively, the ex dividend date could be earlier if the cost of attaching any dividend to the options is seen as suggested before, inequitable, or just too high a price to pay.

I expect any call on the dividend to be made relatively late in the piece, depending on SP movements, and the timing and content of the announcement relating to Tui regarding:


The level of reserves.
The production profile for the years to 30 June 2009, 2010 and beyond.
The level of production expected for the year to 30 June 2008 (i.e. a minimum of 14.2 mmbbl).

[the machine]

from the share chat interview - written answer by CR

SC: Would a discovery at Momoho fall into the lower royalties for new exploration discoveries from July 2004 to December 2009?

CR: Yes. If a discovery is made between 30 June 2004 and 31 December 2009:

Ad Valorem Royalty (AVR) will be 1% for natural gas
Accounting Profits Royalty (APR) will be 15% on the first NZ$750 million cumulative gross (offshore) or 15% on the first NZ$250 million cumulative gross (onshore).
In calculating the accounting profit deductions are made and may include associated production costs, capital costs (exploration costs, development costs, permit acquisition costs and feasibility cost), indirect costs, abandonment costs, operating and capital overhead allowance, operating costs and capital costs carried forward and abandonment costs carried back.


unquote

IMO this is fantastic that a discovery at momoho falls into the lower royalties.
whilst trying to not put the cart before the horse, a discovery represents a big tax break APR for the first nz$750 million gross [offshore] and AVR at only 1 % for gas

can anyone quantify this further

would be great if the tax break equates to value of drilling it and assuming success - the development costs.

Can't recall any significant discoveries since june 30 2004 when ytax break kicked in

M

[COLIN]

This is a difficult scenario to see happening as it would be inequitable to the existing shareholders to be considered in the same light as new shareholders (i.e. new capital sourced from the option conversion on or near 30 June 2008). However, if the company wanted to pay an additional "interim dividend", it could be announced prior to 30 June 2008, say after the Tui reserves upgrade, and trade ex dividend on or around 25 June 2008. Only early converters of the options would then get the dividend. It would have the advantage of maintaining a firm share price, and could be considered an incentive for the options to be taken up early. Perhaps this is a price the company is willing to pay for the options to be converted. Alternatively, the ex dividend date could be earlier if the cost of attaching any dividend to the options is seen as suggested before, inequitable, or just too high a price to pay.

I expect any call on the dividend to be made relatively late in the piece, depending on SP movements, and the timing and content of the announcement relating to Tui regarding:


The level of reserves.
The production profile for the years to 30 June 2009, 2010 and beyond.
The level of production expected for the year to 30 June 2008 (i.e. a minimum of 14.2 mmbbl).



But, Peter, you are overlooking the point that payment of any additional dividend prior to 30 June would merely depress the share price by a like amount - theoretically possibly taking it below $1-50, and thus making exercise of the options a rather pointless exercise (except perhaps for large holders who would push up the price of the existing shares if they bought those instead.)
Payment of a further dividend before 30 June just ain't going to happen.
I'm not sure why people keep harping on about this additional dividend thing. All you have to do is carefully read page 4 of the Interim Report - referenced in an earlier post of mine.
For goodness sake, forget about it and move on.

[digger]

Goldman Raises Second-Half WTI Oil Forecast to $141 (Update1)

By Stephen Voss and Alexander Kwiatkowski

May 16 (Bloomberg) -- Goldman Sachs Group Inc., the world's biggest securities firm by market value, revised higher its New York crude-oil price forecast for the second half of this year by 32 percent, citing supply constraints.

Goldman now forecasts West Texas Intermediate, the benchmark crude grade traded in New York, will average $141 a barrel in the second half of the year, up from its previous forecast of $107. Prices will rise further in 2009, averaging $148 a barrel, the bank said.

``Supply constraints and a lack of scaleable substitutes are set to continue driving the long end of the oil curve higher,'' Goldman analysts including Peter Oppenheimer and Jeffrey Currie in London wrote in a report dated today.

The trend in the growth of oil supply has fallen to 1 percent per annum, compared with global economic growth of about 3.8 percent, the report said. ``Given this imbalance, long-term oil prices will need to rise.''

The front-month West Texas Intermediate futures contract on the New York Mercantile Exchange has averaged $104.30 a barrel so far this year. In the third quarter, Goldman Sachs forecasts the price will rise to $135.30 and $145.60 in the fourth quarter.

Europe's Brent crude futures contract should rise to $133.80 a barrel in the third quarter of the year and $144.10 in the final period, according to the bank. The front-month Brent contract on the ICE Futures Europe exchange has averaged $102.52 a barrel this year.

WTI crude for June delivery rose $1.12 to trade at $125.24 a barrel in after-hours trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange at 10:27 a.m. in London today. It reached a record intra-day high of $126.98 on May 13.

To contact the reporters on this story: Stephen Voss in London at sev@bloomberg.netAlexander Kwiatkowski in London at akwiatkowsk2@bloomberg.net

Last Updated: May 16, 2008 05:41 EDT

[zorba]

Digger,

Great post, good spotting on the Bloomberg website !!!!

Z

[peterfindlay]

But, Peter, you are overlooking the point that payment of any additional dividend prior to 30 June would merely depress the share price by a like amount - theoretically possibly taking it below $1-50, and thus making exercise of the options a rather pointless exercise (except perhaps for large holders who would push up the price of the existing shares if they bought those instead.)
Payment of a further dividend before 30 June just ain't going to happen.
I'm not sure why people keep harping on about this additional dividend thing. All you have to do is carefully read page 4 of the Interim Report - referenced in an earlier post of mine.
For goodness sake, forget about it and move on.

Colin, I am not saying it will happen. I was responding to a previous post about dividends. It doesn't always depress the share price and did not do so last time. For a number of reasons I agree that a further dividend payment in the short term is unlikely. However, with the profits so significantly ahead for 2008 when compared to expectations (due to higher prices and production levels), should it choose to do so, the company has every justification to reconsider their position. I do think that the company was unwise to deem the dividend paid the "final dividend" when it was declared after only a 6 month result, albeit a record one. Should it consider it prudent to do so, NZO has a range of capital management options at its disposal.

[tricha]

The big picture, NZO is creaming it ;) close to $170 a barrel NZ :D Check page 4 of their interim report.



Oil above $127 for the first time


http://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/media/images/44663000/jpg/_44663121_oil_getty_226b.jpg Chinese demand for oil to power its economy has sustained high prices


Oil prices have hit a record high above $127 a barrel on speculation that China will need to import more fuel, stretching global supplies.
With more energy needed to rebuild areas devastated by the earthquake earlier this week, US light sweet crude jumped to $127.43 a barrel.
Prices were also supported by Goldman Sachs forecasting that oil would reach $141 a barrel later this year.
London Brent crude also climbed, touching $125.82 a barrel.
"Tight supply conditions continue to be the primary catalyst for higher crude prices," Goldman Sachs analysts said.
Pressure on Opec
Prices have risen by about 25% since the beginning of the year, lifted by geopolitical worries and the weakening US dollar, which makes oil cheaper for foreign buyers.
At the same time demand from fast-growing Asian economies, notably China, has exacerbated price pressures.
The latest price rises come as US President George W Bush flies into Saudi Arabia to urge the kingdom to pump more crude and help bring prices down. The US has already agreed to help protect Saudi Arabia's oil infrastructure from terrorists and help it develop environmentally cleaner energy options. But so far, oil cartel Opec, of which Saudi Arabia is a key member, has refused to increase production, insisting that the price rises have been driven by speculators and not real demand problems.

[digger]

Tui gross revenue is getting ever closer to that magic 1 million per day.

45000[.125][1/.78][131.18]=946,000

It was about 6 months ago that tui first passed the half million mark.This increased revenue is all rising oil prices as the oil production has remained mostly flat during this time.

[Nitaa]

The graphs give some historic picture of oil prices. Prices spiked from 1973 to 1981 only to colapse in about 1983. If history is anything to go by then we should see prices spiking for another couple of years before any significant correction. Possibly followed by an even further spike before any sort of collapse.

Its important to remember and what Bermuda often refers to as a finite source. Oil will become more like gold and wars will break out because of it in my opinion. Obvious target is Iran.

I will stick to my view that oil has a long way to go before any real downturn. There at least 2 more years of sustained increase in prices.

[zorba]

.
"Greenspan Says Oil to Keep Rising on Capacity Limits"

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=agELoC9E0GG8

[Steve]

.
"Greenspan Says Oil to Keep Rising on Capacity Limits"

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=agELoC9E0GG8

BUY BUY BUY!!! :D

[the machine]

Phaedrus, have been meaning to ask this for a while and since have not seen you post on the ppp thread, was wondering if you would mind doing a chart for ppp since they have 10&#37;of tui.

we do look at your charts very closely as very informative.

am sure a chart on the ppp thread since tui commenced production would be most appreciated by the regular posters

using the asx instead of nzx due to the higher volume traded

thanks

M

[bk]

The graphs give some historic picture of oil prices. Prices spiked from 1973 to 1981 only to colapse in about 1983. If history is anything to go by then we should see prices spiking for another couple of years before any significant correction. Possibly followed by an even further spike before any sort of collapse.

Its important to remember and what Bermuda often refers to as a finite source. Oil will become more like gold and wars will break out because of it in my opinion. Obvious target is Iran.

I will stick to my view that oil has a long way to go before any real downturn. There at least 2 more years of sustained increase in prices.

I don't think you can compare oil with gold - the amount of gold available keeps increasing as it is dug up (assuming not much of it gets lost), while the amount of oil available decreases when it gets used. And history is not of much use, as this is not just a cycle, but "the end" (of cheap oil), something that did not happen before.

I also do not expect a real downturn in the price of oil until the economy collapses or at least a severe recession strikes, which may indeed still be a few years away. But wars have a funny habit of breaking out "unexpectedly". 2012 anyone? Or perhaps after the olympics?

So what to do with my NZO shares? Keep them as they will increase with the price of oil? Sell them as they will drop in a recession? And will the NZ dollar keeps its value? Or maybe better buy some land now?

My current bet - wait till the end of the year, then sell them for $2 and invest in land

[friedegg]

pretty sure they will be around $2 a couple of weeks past june30

[digger]

My current bet - wait till the end of the year, then sell them for $2 and invest in land
End quote

bk, the problem with that idea is that land for now will not be the new currency for a long time to come. I will stick with oil as it is the master resource from which all others will take there lead.That will likely stay that way until the world sorts out the new energy is coming from.I can not see the world sorting this energy crises out inside the next ten years,probably more like 20.
Big movements being made in the last year with electric cars,but unless you have your own source of electricy as i am now making,you will find the grid will cave in under the new load with hugh costs rises on the way.Upping the grid to about twice its present size will inself take a decade or two,so i believe the place we live in will be energy restrained not land restrained in the coming 10 years.The age to invest in the last barrel of oil is now,land will take second fiddle.

[bk]

bk, the problem with that idea is that land for now will not be the new currency for a long time to come. I will stick with oil as it is the master resource from which all others will take there lead.That will likely stay that way until the world sorts out the new energy is coming from.I can not see the world sorting this energy crises out inside the next ten years,probably more like 20.

Big movements being made in the last year with electric cars,but unless you have your own source of electricy as i am now making,you will find the grid will cave in under the new load with hugh costs rises on the way.Upping the grid to about twice its present size will inself take a decade or two,so i believe the place we live in will be energy restrained not land restrained in the coming 10 years.The age to invest in the last barrel of oil is now,land will take second fiddle.

mmm, not so sure. I agree, investment in energy is now, and indeed I expect good returns to last a decade or two (ignoring wars). But what good is it owning shares in NZO while possibly electricity becomes unreliable, petrol very expensive, and food shortages develop? If you have a house with a decent piece of land (for growing fruit, veges, potatoes, and keeping chickens), and at least provide some energy yourself (solar hot water is the obvious, firewood comes close second, and maybe some pv / solar electricity, then life would be a lot better (or less worse)

So I am not seeing land as an investment, more as an insurance for bad times to come

[digger]

mmm, not so sure. I agree, investment in energy is now, and indeed I expect good returns to last a decade or two (ignoring wars). But what good is it owning shares in NZO while possibly electricity becomes unreliable, petrol very expensive, and food shortages develop? If you have a house with a decent piece of land (for growing fruit, veges, potatoes, and keeping chickens), and at least provide some energy yourself (solar hot water is the obvious, firewood comes close second, and maybe some pv / solar electricity, then life would be a lot better (or less worse)

So I am not seeing land as an investment, more as an insurance for bad times to come

OK bk i see were you are coming from.If you are going to live on it and make some vegs and power then that is what i am doing so can hardle fault it. I thought it was just for an investment. I would say your own home is the first and best investment you will ever make,so remember location ,location,etc.

[Bixbite]

BK

Would like to suggest you to do a Google search or read some books about “Permaculture”

Cheers

[bk]

BK

Would like to suggest you to do a Google search or read some books about “Permaculture”

Cheers

already done that - am also interested in aquaponics - mixing (edible) fish and plants. If only I had green fingers . . . . but maybe it is not too late to start

[bermuda]

already done that - am also interested in aquaponics - mixing (edible) fish and plants. If only I had green fingers . . . . but maybe it is not too late to start

bk,
providing you hold onto your NZO, you will have all the backing to buy whatever property you like and employ your own green fingered gardeners.

Because like oil, NZO is going to go a lot higher.

[duncan macgregor]

Have you ever thought that the very thing you lot are so joyous about will lead to your downfall eventually. The higher price oil is the greater the need to find an alternative. Dont ever think it wont happen, its only a matter of when, not if. It sickens me to read gleefool little remarks about the rising cost of oil, simply because they have a few shares in an oil company.
I have every faith in the ingenuity of mankind to come up with an alternative at some time in the near future. It might not happen tomorrow, but it will happen. When it happens the price of oil will drop faster than its going up. Macdunk

[Crypto Crude]

mackdunk,
Large Oil companies usually just buy out alternatives when they pop up...
A large transition will happen in the human race... not for along time...
I suggest you start a thread at www.daydreamingofthefuture.com (http://www.daydreamingofthefuture.com)
:cool:
.^sc

[airedale]

Don'be churlish, Duncan, buy some oil shares......doesn't have to be NZO.
Even at $200 per 200 litre barrel ...that is still only $1/litre for a very valuable substance. Too valuable to burn,really, if you see what I mean.

[Nitaa]

Have you ever thought that the very thing you lot are so joyous about will lead to your downfall eventually. The higher price oil is the greater the need to find an alternative. Dont ever think it wont happen, its only a matter of when, not if. It sickens me to read gleefool little remarks about the rising cost of oil, simply because they have a few shares in an oil company.
I have every faith in the ingenuity of mankind to come up with an alternative at some time in the near future. It might not happen tomorrow, but it will happen. When it happens the price of oil will drop faster than its going up. Macdunk
MD MD MD. Just look at the charts i posted up top. I do not think there is one person on this forum to realise that oil wont come crashing down at some stage. However, that crash may end up being USD300 down to USD80.

You should also note that many of these investors have waited years for thir fotune to go up over 500% in less than 6 years.

I find it peculiar that you gloat at how well you did last year but yet you post with extreme envy when nzo holders have their day in the sun. You should be happy for the likes of W, Digger, Bermuda, Zorba and so on who listened while you bagged nzo every other day yet still stuck with what they saw as a fundamentallly good stock.

fyi. the world is an ever changing place. the sad fact is that wars break out because of precious resources of oil etc. just watch watch what will unfold in the middle east within the next 20 years. the world and the middle east will be completely different. all because os stupid oil

[bermuda]

Have you ever thought that the very thing you lot are so joyous about will lead to your downfall eventually. The higher price oil is the greater the need to find an alternative. Dont ever think it wont happen, its only a matter of when, not if. It sickens me to read gleefool little remarks about the rising cost of oil, simply because they have a few shares in an oil company.
I have every faith in the ingenuity of mankind to come up with an alternative at some time in the near future. It might not happen tomorrow, but it will happen. When it happens the price of oil will drop faster than its going up. Macdunk

Macdunk,

Please read Twilight in the Desert

I cant believe you havent read read it yet.

We are 10 years away at least from alternatives that will be sufficient to supplant the problems of Peak Oil.

There are plenty of resources that can take oil's place but we havent woken up fast enough. So get real...

Oil goes higher...a lot higher.

[macduffy]

I think most of us would agree that alternatives will come to the fore " in course".
What many of us are less certain of is that they will be able to be produced at a price which will make what's left of the oil look expensive.
Meanwhile, I continue to hold modest parcels of AOE, AWE, BOW, NWE, ARC, BPT, CUE and, since last month, PSA.
Oh, and a few BHP from circa 1984.

;)

[tim23]

Duncan can you give us the inside on the IPO for the company that replaces oil so we can talk about that on this forum, gee it may even help the share price?!

[duncan macgregor]

Duncan can you give us the inside on the IPO for the company that replaces oil so we can talk about that on this forum, gee it may even help the share price?! TIM, Hydrogen derived from sea water. It burns clean, no pollution, can be fitted out to most modern cars at very little cost. One gallon of water has more explosive power than one gallon of oil. The down side is the energy required to seperate the hydrogen from the water.
They run buses on this in some parts of the world, and swear by it. Even our prime minister was talking about this in her ravings about global warming this week. Once the problem of seperation is solved in a cost effective way your shares will plummet. BEATS talking about peak bloody oil dont you think?. Macdunk

[bermuda]

TIM, Hydrogen derived from sea water. It burns clean, no pollution, can be fitted out to most modern cars at very little cost. One gallon of water has more explosive power than one gallon of oil. The down side is the energy required to seperate the hydrogen from the water.
They run buses on this in some parts of the world, and swear by it. Even our prime minister was talking about this in her ravings about global warming this week. Once the problem of seperation is solved in a cost effective way your shares will plummet. BEATS talking about peak bloody oil dont you think?. Macdunk

For goodness sake Macca,

Electrolysis done easily?????

Even I did Chemistry.

We need to have a whisky

[tim23]

Anything to talk down the NOG price I guess!?

[Onthemoney]

MD they make more money talking about it....

[Tok3n]

what is the cost of the energy required to make hydrogen?

[digger]

MD they make more money talking about it....

I first heard about the hydrogen when i was about 8 years old,now getting on to 58 years ago. It seems in that time hydrogen has always been 15 years away for mass production.
Yes i believe hydrogen will get solved .It has some small technical problems so is about 15 years away.

[shasta]

TIM, Hydrogen derived from sea water. It burns clean, no pollution, can be fitted out to most modern cars at very little cost. One gallon of water has more explosive power than one gallon of oil. The down side is the energy required to seperate the hydrogen from the water.
They run buses on this in some parts of the world, and swear by it. Even our prime minister was talking about this in her ravings about global warming this week. Once the problem of seperation is solved in a cost effective way your shares will plummet. BEATS talking about peak bloody oil dont you think?. Macdunk

Macdunk

Did you see the "Addicted to Oil" program recently?

It showed a Hydrogen station & prototype car with a Hydrogen fuel cell in the US. The size of the solar panels were enormous & it would take a week of the sun rays stored from the solar panels to fill just one car! (Approx running 280km from memory?)

The consensus was that alternatives like this were so far away, due to costs (the prototype cost $US1m) & that the demand for such cars in the US were minimal.

It then went on to show a large automotive show with many other alternative types of vehicles, but when they spoke to the main car manufacturers the overall demand was for the traditional large gas guzzler, & despite the soaring oil price, the actual demand for the smaller more eco friendly cars wasn't enough to warrant a significant change in the market.

The US is under 5% of the worlds population, yet uses 25% of the worlds oil, & contributes something like 55% of the worlds pollution!

(Stats from the program)

If there is to be a significant shift away from oil, it will be generated out of the US first, & judging from that program we are 10 - 20 years away from viable alternatives on a global scale.

Conclusion i got from the program?

Oil is only going higher short-mid term & we will see $US150/bbl during 2008 IMO.

[neopole]

the day someone invents a catalyst that converts saltwater to hydrogen is the day of the doomsday bomb and the world will never be the same.
imagine a plane load of catalyst crashed into a city waterfront and ignited.........
nature intended the worlds most plentiful power source to be used wisely, and therefore difficult to extract.
if any power source has the potenial to be the new fuel of the future it with be geothermal on a massive scale......... like drilling kilometers of pipe down into volcanoes or geothermal spots and driving massive steam plants.
there is enough heat in the earth to last humanity an eternaty, we just need to learn how to really get to it, more so than our small low depth geothermal plants.
in the meantime........ oil is king, and will be in our working lifetimes.
when oil becomes really expensive, cars will turn to electric with their batteries charged from highly efficient hydrocarbon power stations, and from there, onto geothermal.
wind, sun, waves, will only be suplimentry. nuclear has a definate place, but the politics of this generation will mean its only a minor to small player.

geothermal is the future.

[manxman]

Have you ever thought that the very thing you lot are so joyous about will lead to your downfall eventually. The higher price oil is the greater the need to find an alternative. Dont ever think it wont happen, its only a matter of when, not if. It sickens me to read gleefool little remarks about the rising cost of oil, simply because they have a few shares in an oil company.
I have every faith in the ingenuity of mankind to come up with an alternative at some time in the near future. It might not happen tomorrow, but it will happen. When it happens the price of oil will drop faster than its going up. Macdunk

With all due respect, these problems were essentialy solved sixty years ago. In WWII Germany was producing liquid fuels from coal. Not price competitive, but then shipping fuel across the Atlantic was only economic if a government was picking up the tab.

In the immediate aftermath of WWII, British Intelligence (an organization, not necessarily an oxymoron) forensically dismantled the whole German chemical engineering industry, and produced the BIOS reports, which were in effect in the public domain.

Post WWII South Africa, faced with boycotts, advanced the technology via SASOL.

There is no problem with continuity of supply of liquid fuels. There is a lot of technology to be tweaked. There are however disincentives to investment. It is only five or six years since the Economist predicted oil at $5/bbl.

Tui would have been a commercial disaster.

In order to encourage investment in new oil, and to discourage profligate consumption, we really need oil to trend towards the expensive. Expensive oil immediately will simply cause hardship, but we need clear signals that tomorrow's oil will get dearer and dearer so that today's buyers are warned that there will be no market for second hand Humvees. The poor won't be able to afford them.

If the price of oil drops, as McDunk predicts, we will enter into another fool's paradise. We won't run out of oil but we will run out of fresh air. It is important for the world that the price of oil stays up at a level which demands conservation and encourages investment in alternative energy. It would be nice if we got the message without triggering a huge recession.

I am reminded of the aphorism which says that the United States can be relied upon to do the right thing, (but only after trying every other alternative.) We don't do much better here.

Mx

[Unicorn]

TIM, Hydrogen derived from sea water. It burns clean, no pollution, can be fitted out to most modern cars at very little cost. One gallon of water has more explosive power than one gallon of oil. The down side is the energy required to seperate the hydrogen from the water.
They run buses on this in some parts of the world, and swear by it. Even our prime minister was talking about this in her ravings about global warming this week. Once the problem of seperation is solved in a cost effective way your shares will plummet. BEATS talking about peak bloody oil dont you think?. Macdunk

We need some clarification here, as it looks like you are picking and choosing various aspects of different systems that share nothing other than the involvement of hydrogen in some form.

There are essentially three hydrogen based "technologies" ...
1. Extracting hydrogen gas from water and burning it alongside petrol. Brought to you by the people who are also holding $20M that was left to you when an unknown relative died. You can get the kit for just $49 for a short time only, it halves your petrol consumption, and changing what your engine burns doesn't affect your warranty!!!

2. Nuclear fusion of hydrogen atoms, in the form of deuterium. Much more explosive power than a mere gallon of oil! Has the unfortunate effect of laying waste to everything within a few kilometres, which limits its usefulness for city driving.

3. Hydrogen fuel cells, which produce electricity from hydrogen gas. This does not use the explosive power of hydrogen, and it costs many,many times the value of a new car to install. This is the technology that most of the car makers are working on, but they have a long way to go before it will be ready for mass production. It requires huge energy inputs to extract the hydrogen from water - water itself is hydrogen and oxygen at a low energy state, which is why there is so much of it. This approach will work best where the alternative energy is readily available and the amount of hydrogen needed is relatively small. Iceland is probably the world leader, because it has enormous amounts of geothermal energy, few people, and conversion to a hydrogen delivery infrastructure would be relatively cheap.

[Lion]

"Hydrogen energy" refers to two sepArate things.

First is using hydrogen as a way of carrying energy from any source (e.g. wind, solar, nuclear fusion, coal, tidal - anything) to where it's going to be used (e.g. vehicles, house-heating etc) This will be very useful when various technical problems, mainly storage are worked out. Cars can use hydrogen fuel and produce almost zero emissions where it's burnt, but the energy must still be produced somewhere else, usually with some pollution.

The second (notably confused with the first by McDunk and others) refers to the production of energy by nuclear fusion of hydrogen. The primary source of the hydrogen is seawater, (as McD rightly said), but the technology to make energy from it is "at least 30 years away" (and has been so for about 50 years)

Don't count on "hydrogen" to replace oil in the next 30 years, and not much else either in the next ten.

The complicated economics of the future of energy are beyond everyone to predict, I suspect. If the price of oil rises too much, then the "alternatives" (a too-easy, catch-all, ill-defined term) become economic to use, they say, so the POO drops. So whoops, everyone starts using oil again. No, I don't think it works like that. Add in huge unknowns like depleting reserves of oil, wars, recession, disease pandemics, global warming, and much else, and I reckon any forecasting beyond a couple of years is futile.

Oh, except NZO will rise in the next couple of years :)

(Some duplication of our posts, Unicorn & Manxman, while I was composing mine!)

[tricha]

Macdunk,

Please read Twilight in the Desert

I cant believe you havent read read it yet.

We are 10 years away at least from alternatives that will be sufficient to supplant the problems of Peak Oil.

There are plenty of resources that can take oil's place but we havent woken up fast enough. So get real...

Oil goes higher...a lot higher.

Hi Bermuda

I have a feeling u snuke back into NZO today, your pick ;) Anyway I did, bought another 10 k of them before they announce a reserves upgrade for Tui.

Lets face it, close to a $million a day turn over for them.:rolleyes:

[manxman]

I first heard about the hydrogen when i was about 8 years old,now getting on to 58 years ago. It seems in that time hydrogen has always been 15 years away for mass production.
Yes i believe hydrogen will get solved .It has some small technical problems so is about 15 years away.

A bit like Nuclear Fusion harnessing the power of the H-bomb. Still fifty years down the track. Always fifty years down the track. Don't hold your breath.

Solar, wind and geothermal are all maturing however, and in conjunction with our abundant hydro storage, allow New Zealand to arrive at solutions which aren't available to other countries.

Look forward to roofing systems which can pick up 30 Watts/sqm for a premium of about $1/sqm over conventional roofing. Thats about 6 kW peak on a normal rural house. Store it back on the grid when you don't need it.

Firewood and Stirling cycle generators are also sustainable. We need to think.

Don't cremate me, Compost me. (Then I will be a rotten bastard forever.)

Mx

[Financially dependant]

We need every bit of energy we can get! Wind, wave, gas, solar, hydrogen (for storage) etc. etc..

There are no silver bullets, nothing comes close to the energy density of oil.

The remaining oil needs to build an electrical infrastructure to move the country forward, all but slower!

[KiwiBear]

You Dinosaur ****/fart guys are way behind the 8 Ball, being a keen electronics industry guy and alternative energy follower I'll let you into a wee secret revolution now well under wayz!

Check out 'SIliconChip' magazines article super capacitors instead of batteries for electric vehicles. They are very much lighter and efficient.

There was a guy in Christchurch that successfully ran his car on water during the last oil shock days but mysteriously took ill and died, with no papers or experimental evidence left behind, 'doo do doo'!
Now with the power of the internet it can't be hidden.

Here is the youtube site with videos and another one to start you on your discoveries

http://www.centronews.com/technology/water4gas-review-can-you-really-run-a-car-on-water

http://gizmodo.com/gadgets/gadgets/car-runs-on-water-inventor-to-be-kidnapped-by-exxon-177716.php

http://water4gas.getoffgrid.com/

[duncan macgregor]

This sure beats yapping on and on about peak oil. Macdunk

[zorba]

'
MkKlunk,

It is all about peak oil ...... and the rate at which we are burning fossil fuels and global warming ......

MkKlunk, u r so full of utter bull-****e, u dserve a PhD in Krapology.

Financially Dependent is on the money, oil/petrol/kerosene has excellent enegy density that little else can touch for long range transport where you have to carry your fuel with you .... think diesel powered shipping and the sea transport of raw materials and cargo ..... think airline transport .....

Hydrogen powered airline transport ?? ...... to turn hydrogen into a liquid fuel you have to severely cool it, and this increases the fuel tank weight, and the size has to be 4 times larger than conventional kerosene tanks and this affects airframe shape .... some theoretical designs are being worked on but a practical working liquid hydrogen airliner is still a long way off.

To produce the hydogen gas in the first place by electrolysis you have to put more energy into the electric circuts than you will ever get out, so not exactly efficient.

For local transport much better to use hydro, wind, solar, geothemal or tidal energy (NZ has all of these, particularly hydro, and is indeed fortunate) to charge up batteries or the new super capacitors in your car, then can travel with no emissions and no global warming.

New generation of batteries and capacitors with increased "capacity" plus fast 40 minute Taupo "electric" station charging bring Auckland - Wellington single day battery car travel into view -- but the major rebuilding of electricity grid to deliver power to the new electric transport stations (need to double grid capacity as per Digger comments), plus major change over to electric cars, is still 20 years away ......

In meantime oil/petrol/kerosene is king and the price of oil is ever upwards since supply is constrained and the demand is ever increasing as China, India, Brasil, Russia and rest of the world rush desperately headlong towards the dream of western TV advert living standards.

Go Tui oil ........... Go NZO !!!!
.

[bermuda]

Hi Bermuda

I have a feeling u snuke back into NZO today, your pick ;) Anyway I did, bought another 10 k of them before they announce a reserves upgrade for Tui.

Lets face it, close to a $million a day turn over for them.:rolleyes:

Hi Tricha my old ( new ) buddy.

This thing has stardom written all over it , dont worry about that. I just sold down to give myself leverage to get into the best leverage set of stocks I have ever seen. And as I said to my wife we are going to give it to our two dughters to give to their favourite charity.

I have kept some for old times sake but the charity call is saying CSG Australia.

Great to see you at the party. That was special for you to come across. Thanks for the book by the way. What an education. Should be compulsory education

The reason I chose NZO was because I wanted to. And this is a stock with huge potential that I saw 5 years ago. And so did Digger and others. And as you all know NZO aint even started.

OK, treat it as a ramp if you like but my feeling is that BOW needs a lot more research.

As always Do your Own Research.

I went through all my stocks tonite and decided that sell them all and go for BOW. Whether I have the courage to follow my convictions remains to be seen

[zorba]

.
Bermuda,

I've been looking at VPE and BOW, both seem to share simmilar gas and oil assets, except that VPE looks like it has two major oilfield exploration targets while BOW looks like it only has one, but maybe I've missed something.

Also VPE shareprice seems to have responded with less upward movement regarding the recent BG takeover offer on Origin.

So is it more undervalued ? Or is it maybe carrying more risk ?

Cheers,
Z

[duncan macgregor]

Competition to select NZO share price on conversion date June 30th
in the event of a tie the winner is the person with the correct score posting first
I will list you in posting order.
1,AMR 180c, 2, OILER 165c, 3,Macdunk 159c. 4,MATTYROO 158c.
5,SEAMUS 135c, 6,SERPIE 131c, 7, LIZ 120c, 8, STRAT157c.
9TRACKERS 168, 10, COLIN 170, 11,THE MACHINE 210c. 12,MALCOLM 200c.
13,SPOOK 172, 14,BIG BOB184c, 15,ZORBA 155c, 16, REMY 167c,
17 AMERICAN PSYCHO 175c 18 SHASTA 161c, 19RONTHEPOM 171c 20 PHAEDRUS 160.
21SHREWDY 169, 22 BERMUDA 149, 23 MORV 183c, 24 COALIE 188c
25 DIGGER 173c, 26 blank, 27 NITA 181c, 28 SUMMER NED 193c.
29 QOH 179c, 30 WK6332 225c 31 BALANCE $10-60 32 KS 162,
33 TOK3N 145c, 34 SHANE M 162.5c, 35CORRAN 156c, 36 MICK100 300c.
37 DSURF 154c, 38 SKEET 185c,39 MIBO 177c, 40 JAY 162c,
41 ZACMAN 187c, 42 GAMBLER33 115c, 43 ANUBUS144c, 44 BRUCETO9 164c.
45 romer 163c.46 HOOP 147c 47 RABBI 148c 48 ROTWEILLER 153c,
49 MINGEATHINAIOOS 150c,50 MANXMAN 195c, 51 MACDUFFY 146c, 52 BLOCKHEAD 198c,
53 777 226c,54 SWISSBOY 174c,55 AIRDALE166,56 CLIPS 178c,
57 PADDIE 196c,58 FOODEE 176, 59 BK152c,60 MPC182c,
61 STEVE 151,62 ONTHEMONEY 143, 63 LION 186, 64,TIM23 189c,
65 BOB C 190 66 RIF RAF 191c 67, OUT TO LUNCH 194 68 SEHNSUCHT888 192c,
69 PIETRADE 220c,70 ZAC 197c, 71,CAM 245C,72, CHALICE 214c,
73 GLENDOONIE 142c

[bermuda]

.
Bermuda,

I've been looking at VPE and BOW, both seem to share simmilar gas and oil assets, except that VPE looks like it has two major oilfield exploration targets while BOW looks like it only has one, but maybe I've missed something.

Also VPE shareprice seems to have responded with less upward movement regarding the recent BG takeover offer on Origin.

So is it more undervalued ? Or is it maybe carrying more risk ?

Cheers,
Z

Hi Zorba,

I will keep my little family of NZO, PRC, BOW , PES, RPM, TEX and VPE, VPEO

I have had so much fun bringing them up I will wait and see them blossom.

ps VPE is like NZO was. Great forward Plan but huge amount of past negativity. These are the ones to get into because the fish will start swimming the other way shortly...just as they did with NZO

[Sehnsucht888]

In Addition to: "Prices were also supported by Goldman Sachs forecasting that oil would reach $141 a barrel later this year. " from 4 days ago...

-------
Crude oil jumped above $129 a barrel for the first time today, and stocks were suffering their worst beating since mid-April.

Crude closed at a new high of $129.07 a barrel, up more than $2 a barrel or 1.6&#37; from Monday. It peaked at $129.60. It jumped in part because oil investor T. Boone Pickens -- the latest expert to see crude moving higher -- said crude would hit $150 a barrel this year.

At the same time, the June contract for crude oil expires today. A contract expiration tends to generate more activity than average.

-------

From:
http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Investing/Dispatch/080520markets.aspx



Can the increase in price beat the decrease in output to hit diggers $1mill a day....

[zac]

Can anyone explain why there is so little information on Kupe re reserves. Reservoir drills have been completed and logged; surely they have a lot more info now on production potential. Confidentiality has been mentioned - why? If information is available it should not be withheld from the market.

[sideline]

AWE have just announced the following on the ASX:

TUI FPSO charter extended to 2022
Fixed term of the charter has been extended to 2015, thereafter 7 one year options.
This will allow to extract an additional 5 m barrels from TUI, bringing current 2P to 47m barrels.

Production remains near 45k barrels/day, despite increasing water cut.
Modifications of FPSO are considered to increase total handling capacity.

TUI reserves are still being reviewed, results out during June '08.


AWE up 2.8&#37; currently.

[fish]

AWE have just announced the following on the ASX:

TUI FPSO charter extended to 2022
Fixed term of the charter has been extended to 2015, thereafter 7 one year options.
This will allow to extract an additional 5 m barrels from TUI, bringing current 2P to 47m barrels.

Production remains near 45k barrels/day, despite increasing water cut.
Modifications of FPSO are considered to increase total handling capacity.

TUI reserves are still being reviewed, results out during June '08.


AWE up 2.8% currently.

The charter extension will allow the Tui joint venture to produce substantial
additional oil from the Tui field and will also maximise the value of any
further oil discoveries in the area.

Very confident announcement-is announced also on nzx now
Could give the sp quite a kick-notice over 4 million options bought so far today
Perhaps it wont be long before those not intending to convert have sold all their options and then the sp can get real
This is the only share on nzx that is going high places soon-imo !

[manxman]

AWE have just announced the following on the ASX:

TUI FPSO charter extended to 2022

This will allow to extract an additional 5 m barrels from TUI, bringing current 2P to 47m barrels.



Nobody is giving up their long lunch to set the market in action. On past performance it will take a day or so for the experts to react.

HINT TO ANALYSTS - THIS IS GOOD NEWS

On the other hand, the Oppies are traded by a much livelier community - they may start to drag the market along.

Mx

[BigBob]

AWE have just announced the following on the ASX:

TUI FPSO charter extended to 2022
Fixed term of the charter has been extended to 2015, thereafter 7 one year options.
This will allow to extract an additional 5 m barrels from TUI, bringing current 2P to 47m barrels.

Production remains near 45k barrels/day, despite increasing water cut.
Modifications of FPSO are considered to increase total handling capacity.

TUI reserves are still being reviewed, results out during June '08.


AWE up 2.8% currently.

This is an implicit upgrade of TUI by more than 10% with maybe more to come from the current review.... and the market doesn't react... unbelievable, but not really that surprising....

[fish]

This is an implicit upgrade of TUI by more than 10% with maybe more to come from the current review.... and the market doesn't react... unbelievable, but not really that surprising....
I doubt if the sellers are doing their own research
Oil is at record highs
Nigerian terrorism has reduced that countries output by 500000 barrels a day
Nzo is making nearly $1million a day from tui share--
This must be translated into the sp soon-very soon imo

[NOCASH]

Sold 10,000$ worth of nzo at 1.62, and brought 10,000$AUD RPM. I hope i made the right choice

[Financially dependant]

Sold 10,000$ worth of nzo at 1.62, and brought 10,000$AUD RPM. I hope i made the right choice

I am thinking along the same lines, I have decided to wait until July but you may have made the right choice!

[airedale]

Sold 10,000$ worth of nzo at 1.62, and brought 10,000$AUD RPM. I hope i made the right choice

Keep it up, Nocash, you will soon be able to afford that gym membership.:)

[Nitaa]

Sucked in and spat out the 350 plus orders at $1.63

What percentage of holders intend to convert and need to sell nzo heads or other stocks etc to fund it? I think still a large portion. This is where the big daddy's will mop up those that have no choice.

discl. ducks all lined up and ready to convert all my remaining options if need be.

[BigBob]

Sucked in and spat out the 350 plus orders at $1.63

What percentage of holders intend to convert and need to sell nzo heads or other stocks etc to fund it? I think still a large portion. This is where the big daddy's will mop up those that have no choice.

discl. ducks all lined up and ready to convert all my remaining options if need be.

Depending on other financial commitments I will either sell all my options or sell however many I need to convert the rest (if you get my drift)….

I am already so overweight in NZO that even though I hold 6 different NZ stocks it has become irrelevant consider it diversification…. ;o)

[Bixbite]

I’ve my options well pre-converted. I’m now longing for another unexpected distribution.

[fish]

Am I missing something ?
Sellers still havnt woken up to what nzo are producing from tui-let alone the potential of kupe to be bigger-not to mention the bonus of momoho and heaps of other pools of hydrocarbons with the potential to tap into tui or kupe
Oil has been climbing further today-Tapis now at $140 excchange rate near 77
nzo share tui =5500 barrels a day at US 134 = $957000 nz daily-well over $300 million revenue this calender year
The p/e ratio is at least 1 to 2 ! -and its just as likely to keep getting better .
Somehow I dont think you can do wrong buying more nzo-as long as you are prepared to hold on for a few months in case the stupid keep on selling

[Mick100]

Sold 10,000$ worth of nzo at 1.62, and brought 10,000$AUD RPM. I hope i made the right choice

Never been one to chase hot stocks myself

Ask macdunk what happens to those who chase hot stocks;)

[trackers]

Taranaki oil field expected to yield another 5m barrels of oil




The Tui oil field joint venture said today it expects to extract an additional 5 million barrels from the offshore Taranaki field.
It has negotiated an extension of the term of the charter for the production storage and offloading vessel, Umuroa, to the end of 2022.
Since the start of production on July 30, 2007, the Tui project has produced about 12.6 million barrels of oil.
The Tui owners are: NZ Oil & Gas (12.5 per cent), AWE New Zealand Pty (42.5 per cent), Mitsui E & P New Zealand (35 per cent), and Pan Pacific Petroleum (10 per cent).
New Zealand Oil & Gas earlier this month reported March quarter revenue of $58.2 million, lifting revenue for the nine months to $153.7 million, including revenue of $141.8 million from the Tui oil field.
In February the company paid its first dividend in a decade. Exports from the Tui field are also having a bit impact on New Zealand's terms of trade, helping turn trade deficits into a surplus.
Field operator AWE say the extension of the ship charter "will allow the Tui joint venture to produce substantial additional oil from the Tui field and will also maximise the value of any further oil discoveries in the area."

That would bring the proven and probable reserve to at least 47 million barrels. At today's price of US$129/barrel, the field would be worth nearly US$19 billion ($25 billion).
Under the contract with Prosafe Production, the owner and operator of the Umuroa, the fixed term of the charter has been extended by 3.4 years to December 31, 2015.
After that date, the Tui joint venture now has seven, one-year options to extend, giving a maximum term of 15.4 years from the date of first production.
Previously the charter fixed term was for five years, with five one-year options to extend.
The four existing Tui field production wells continue to perform strongly, the company said.
Oil production has remained at close to 45,000 barrels a day despite rising water production.
Studies into modifications to the Umuroa to increase water handling capacity to 150,000 barrels a day and to accommodate the 11 planned Tui 4H production well are under way.



http://www.nzherald.co.nz/section/3/story.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=10511612

[corsairx]

Seems like there is a seller with a lot of options happy to keep it at 13 cents. Each time the market chews through the 13 cents mark the sell order is topped back up. Would think that if these were nervous sellers that they would be more willing to drop to 12.9

[trackers]

I look forward to hearing more about Momoho tomorrow in the weekly drilling report. "Late May"... That's now folks, enjoy.

[Crypto Crude]

Mick, its more like....
Flaming red, wave the flag at the bull, rampant chargrilled hot stock...:)...
RPM...
great buying "future bankvault cash"... I meant, Nocash...
sell that EVO of yours and top up...?
Its one EVO now, half a dozen of them later this year... and 30 EVO's in a few years...!
Pity about this market risk...
:cool:
.^sc

[tim23]

Sold 1/2 my options the other day at 13.5 intending to convert balance; looking to sell some other shares (not NOG) to fund.

[Nitaa]

Over 4.5% of options traded today.. thats huge

[Corporate]

I've been readying this topic for a while....couple of questions for the expects.

Why is it that NZO's market cap is seemly so low at $420 million. Their share in PRC is worth $140 million.,they are getting near $1 Million a day from Tui....potentially $300 million for the year.

Plus Kupe etc...?

Can someone provide a summary of the Kupe details, potential and risks?

[blockhead]

I've been readying this topic for a while....couple of questions for the expects.

Why is it that NZO's market cap is seemly so low at $420 million. Their share in PRC is worth $140 million.,they are getting near $1 Million a day from Tui....potentially $300 million for the year.

Plus Kupe etc...?

Can someone provide a summary of the Kupe details, potential and risks?

Yep plenty of knowledgeable persons can supply you with a summary but why don't you go and have a look at the Pike and NOG web sites, you will get the real oil (so to speak) and nothing biased such as McDunk, Sniper or others might provide

[bermuda]

Yep plenty of knowledgeable persons can supply you with a summary but why don't you go and have a look at the Pike and NOG web sites, you will get the real oil (so to speak) and nothing biased such as McDunk, Sniper or others might provide

The reason NZO aint yet performing is because NZO hasnt yet grown out of their 'Sniper" days.

I tell you it takes a while but there is a very good team on board that will see this share fly.

Dont sell.

....and I aint got many

[tricha]

I've been readying this topic for a while....couple of questions for the expects.

Why is it that NZO's market cap is seemly so low at $420 million. Their share in PRC is worth $140 million.,they are getting near $1 Million a day from Tui....potentially $300 million for the year.

Plus Kupe etc...?

Can someone provide a summary of the Kupe details, potential and risks?

As Bermuda replied Shep, to many Blockheads do not understand change. I just think as a newbe in this stock, it still allows us to buy a cheap stock.;)

And I think the next quarter will wake the market to it's potential.:rolleyes:

As far as Kupe goes, I think Oiler told me it was based on $45 a barrel.:) Cost over runs and delays, but if oil\gas keeps increasing, they will make even more profit.

[NOCASH]

Mick, its more like....
Flaming red, wave the flag at the bull, rampant chargrilled hot stock...:)...
RPM...
great buying "future bankvault cash"... I meant, Nocash...
sell that EVO of yours and top up...?
Its one EVO now, half a dozen of them later this year... and 30 EVO's in a few years...!
Pity about this market risk...
:cool:
.^sc

Yeah bro that could be a option,i really don't a powerful car anymore. i am planning to do that buy a car that gets me from uni and back from for under 2,000$ and put the cash i make from selling my car into RPM. Gosh its incredible up 1 cent RPM and i made 766$ profit i'm liking it.

[blockhead]

As Bermuda replied Shep, to many Blockheads do not understand change.

Not too sure what you think it is I do not understand Tricha, I have a fair heap of NZO and I wouldnt be holding them if I thought I hadn't understood the change in the Co in recent times ???

[Lion]

Blockie, I'm sure you understand that tricha meant the general blockhead, not our esteemed particular Blockhead

[friedegg]

did anyne read the negative writeup today with a twist
"tui oilfield operators expected to admit to spilll" the one last year costing $100000 clean up and the possibility of up to a $200000 fine to each company,the last sentence summed it up "the tui oilfield is producing 7 million dollars a day"

[peterb]

The article shows why you can't trust the media "coating more than 10km of coastline southwest of New Plymouth." Is patently wrong. I think the true story was that tar ball were found over a 10km area. It wasn't much of a story at the time, all fully and factually reported, and now the dompost is trying to inject some new life into the story with a bit of unscrupulous sensationalism.

[Mr Tommy]

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/section/3/story.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=10511612

"That would bring the proven and probable reserve to at least 47 million barrels. At today's price of US$129/barrel, the field would be worth nearly US$19 billion ($25 billion)."


How on earth did they get a value of 19 billion?. Maybe the reserves have been re-estimated and they know already that Tui holds 150 million barrels !

[Mr Tommy]

And oil has just gone thru $130 on nymex in early trading.

[the machine]

as regards tui 2P reserves, does anyone know what percentage recovery this is based on?

mostly reserves are only 50% -at least in first few years of production.

be very handy if only @ this level, as plenty of potential upside in a few years if went to 65% or higher

M

[fish]

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/section/3/story.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=10511612

"That would bring the proven and probable reserve to at least 47 million barrels. At today's price of US$129/barrel, the field would be worth nearly US$19 billion ($25 billion)."


How on earth did they get a value of 19 billion?. Maybe the reserves have been re-estimated and they know already that Tui holds 150 million barrels !

not only is the arithmatic poor but tapis was $134 yestersay and $136 today
Still the final valuation figure imo may not be too far out-it is certainly a realistic possibiliy for next year.

NZO owns 12.5 % and is it not unreasonable to estimate the value of their share of tui at somewhere between $1 billion nz and 3 billion

[bk]

Today selling at $133, and the futures contract for 2016 has it only rising by a whopping 5% to $141, seems to be a bit of a disconnect here.

And Shell has been telling the US Senate that oil should be somewhere between $35 and $65 - have they forgotten that the current deep sea technology costs already over $50?? And of course the price of oil is no longer what it costs to produce plus some margin, but whatever an increasing desperate SUV driver is willing to pay.

With the risk of alienating some posters here, the production of crude oil by conventional means has stalled since May 2005 and is starting to slip - also known as Peak Oil. With most producing countries heavily subsidizing their own consumption for a rapidly increasing population there is less left for the importing countries - hence the market mechanism pushing up prices.

All good news for NZO holders - I am puzzled why the price hardly moved when the extra 5 million barrels were found (and more to come, I'm sure)

[manxman]

as regards tui 2P reserves, does anyone know what percentage recovery this is based on?

M

As I recall, the original 28.7 million barrels was based on 60 million barrels of oil in place, which was just under 50% recoverable. My reading was that the upgrade to 41 mbbl was based on the success of the horizontal drilling and the initial performance of the wells. The latest upgrade seems to be based at least in part, on the longer producion tail which they can exploit because of the price of oil, so the percentage recovery will be looking a lot higher. No-one has mentioned an increase in oil in place.

The June upgrade will provide a revised estimate of oil in place. They wouldn't be doing this unless they had a substantial change to report. They must be pretty certain at this stage what the figures are, or they wouldn't have altered the Umuroa lease, but I guess if the figures are to be released via the ASX there may be necessary external reviews. Going to be a big month for NZO.

Mx

[Anubis]

I have just switched on my computer to find that oil has climbed to almost $134 per barrel overnight, and the US market has started heading south again on renewed economic pessimism. We live in interesting times!

[zorba]

.
Up, Up and Away ........

.
http://futures.tradingcharts.com/intraday/CL_/78
.

Go Tui, Go Kupe, Go Pike .......... GO NZO !!!!

[trackers]

Tapis: US$135.91 = NZ$175.015 x 45,000 = $7,875,675 p/day for JV = $984,459 NZO share p/day sooo close to that sweet sweet $1million a day mark for NZO

[zorba]

As I recall, the original 28.7 million barrels was based on 60 million barrels of oil in place, which was just under 50&#37; recoverable. My reading was that the upgrade to 41 mbbl was based on the success of the horizontal drilling and the initial performance of the wells. The latest upgrade seems to be based at least in part, on the longer producion tail which they can exploit because of the price of oil, so the percentage recovery will be looking a lot higher. No-one has mentioned an increase in oil in place.

The June upgrade will provide a revised estimate of oil in place. They wouldn't be doing this unless they had a substantial change to report. They must be pretty certain at this stage what the figures are, or they wouldn't have altered the Umuroa lease, but I guess if the figures are to be released via the ASX there may be necessary external reviews. Going to be a big month for NZO.

Mx


Manxman,

I dont agree its simply higher oil prices that have increased the size of the recoverable reserves.

Consider the remarkable performance of the Tui oil field as presented by NZOG in its recent Quarterly Report ---- increasing production way above the postulated reservoir depletion model ---- the Tui oil field is performing hugely above expectations and the evidence is there in the monthly production statistics which Malcolm so excellently spotted several months ago.

This substantially increased monthly performance strongly suggests that overall there is seriously more oil to be recovered than first thought.

The extra production that higher oil prices might attract in the tail of the production profile is still more than 5 years into the future and the JV would be cautious about making overly optimistic long range oil price forcasts .......

So while high prices sure do increase the overall value of Tui, I'm also picking that we have substantial extra value from a real increases in both the "oil in place" and "recoverable oil" volumes for the Tui field.

Particularly it looks like the field can in the near term, over the first few years, produce at much higher rates than previously modelled.

This extra near term production at the current high oil prices must represents a dramatic positive uplift in the Net Present Value (NPV) of the Tui project.

The proposed modifications to the FPSO to increase its water handling capacity will further increase the near term production profile, and again this will increase the NPV for the oilfield.

I'm picking NZO over $1.75 in the next few weeks ........ time will tell !!

Z
.

[manxman]

Manxman,

I dont agree its simply higher oil prices that have increased the size of the recoverable reserves.

Consider the remarkable performance of the Tui oil field as presented by NZOG in its recent Quarterly Report ---- increasing production way above the postulated reservoir depletion model ---- the Tui oil field is performing hugely above expectations and the evidence is there in the monthly production statistics which Malcolm so excellently spotted several months ago.

This substantially increased monthly performance strongly suggests that overall there is seriously more oil to be recovered than first thought.

The extra production that higher oil prices might attract in the tail of the production profile is still more than 5 years into the future and the JV would be cautious about making overly optimistic long range oil price forcasts .......

So while high prices sure do increase the overall value of Tui, I'm also picking that we have substantial extra value from a real increases in both the "oil in place" and "recoverable oil" volumes for the Tui field.

Particularly it looks like the field can in the near term, over the first few years, produce at much higher rates than previously modelled.

This extra near term production at the current high oil prices must represents a dramatic positive uplift in the Net Present Value (NPV) of the Tui project.

The proposed modifications to the FPSO to increase its water handling capacity will further increase the near term production profile, and again this will increase the NPV for the oilfield.

I'm picking NZO over $1.75 in the next few weeks ........ time will tell !!

Z
.

Zorba, I agree entirely with your assessment, and I missed the significance of raising the near term production profile by modifying the FPSO.
The point I was trying to make is that the original oil-in-place estimate was 60mbbl and this has never been officialy upgraded. What we have had so far are upgrades to the 2P estimate.
I hope that the current review will reveal a major increase in both oil in place and 2P reserves.

I have NZO at $1.95 in McDunk's contest. As you say, time will tell.
And after the Tui upgrade in June, Momoho in July, first coal train ex Pike River in August. Could be a wild ride.

M

[duncan macgregor]

I would think that the very thing that you all seem so gleefull about will end up biting you on the bum. Soaring oil prices are the worst thing that can happen if it goes beyond reasonable levels.
This will speed up the coming recession, or havent you noticed the down trending markets?. it will also speed up research into alternatives to replace our total dependance on fossil fuels. It will raise the level of risk of total war being declared on some country that has the last remaining oil wells.
I look on the price of oil and fear that the blind greed of mankind will bring us all down. Macdunk

[the machine]

As I recall, the original 28.7 million barrels was based on 60 million barrels of oil in place, which was just under 50% recoverable. My reading was that the upgrade to 41 mbbl was based on the success of the horizontal drilling and the initial performance of the wells. The latest upgrade seems to be based at least in part, on the longer producion tail which they can exploit because of the price of oil, so the percentage recovery will be looking a lot higher. No-one has mentioned an increase in oil in place.

The June upgrade will provide a revised estimate of oil in place. They wouldn't be doing this unless they had a substantial change to report. They must be pretty certain at this stage what the figures are, or they wouldn't have altered the Umuroa lease, but I guess if the figures are to be released via the ASX there may be necessary external reviews. Going to be a big month for NZO.

Mx
thanks maxman

thus in absence of any report to change from just "under 50% recoverable" it implies the 2 reserves increases last year are still using same % recoverable.

the updated reserves due within next 2-4 weeks should probably still maintain this % as its way to early in the production life to increase the % recoverable.
That may happen in 4 - 5 years IMO.

as regards the extended lease - that is due to tui performance.
the 7 x 1 year options will need another discovery before fully used IMO

M

[Nitaa]

I see AWE up very strong again today.. up over 20% this month alone. Its interesting to see that nzo and awe have their own minds even though tui plays a big part in both companys.

[zorba]

I would think that the very thing that you all seem so gleefull about will end up biting you on the bum. Soaring oil prices are the worst thing that can happen if it goes beyond reasonable levels.
This will speed up the coming recession, or havent you noticed the down trending markets?. it will also speed up research into alternatives to replace our total dependance on fossil fuels. It will raise the level of risk of total war being declared on some country that has the last remaining oil wells.
I look on the price of oil and fear that the blind greed of mankind will bring us all down. Macdunk


Good post Makkers,

Totally agree with your concerns ..... if this ever rising price of oil gets out of hand, well it could all lead to tears ..... particularly if the high oil price leads to a global recession, and all sparked of by the US sub-prime scam.

As an aside I think the US should be put under global supervision ......

Global supervision of the US is required on economic, moral, environmental and electoral grounds:

Economic -- stuffed up the world economy and seriously shafted thousands of individual pension schemes and retirement investments with their sub-prime AAA rated scam.

Moral -- starting catastrophic wars based on misleading info and bull-sh**ting the world on WMDs

Enviromental -- they dont give a fig about the rest of the world so long as they can fill up the gas guzzlers -- WTF we got the best and biggest army and we will just go in and get the stuff where ever it is -- bu.gger who owns it and bu.gger global warming.

Electoral -- the US electoral system does not necessarily return the President with the most votes (eg Gore vs Bush election) -- This contradiction has now happened 4 times in US Presidential elections ( http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election,_2000 )

No doubt all above can be seen from other perspectives -- but in my mind the US and its institutions has suffered from a catastrphic lack of leadership over the last 8 years.

I only hope that the price of oil doesn't zoom up and then collapse on the back of a world wide recession !!

Z

[bermuda]

Good post Zorba.
Bush is a complete and utter dipstick living in yesterdays dreamworld.

The first thing Obama does when he gets into the White House???

Yes...he paints it Black..... that's not really fair.... but like Cassius Clay he is going to shake up the world....and it is about time the USA got real.

Twilight in the Desert

Wish everyone would read it.

Ghawar's stuffed.

[bk]

Good post Zorba.
Bush is a complete and utter dipstick living in yesterdays dreamworld.

The first thing Obama does when he gets into the White House???

Yes...he paints it Black..... that's not really fair.... but like Cassius Clay he is going to shake up the world....and it is about time the USA got real.

Twilight in the Desert

Wish everyone would read it.

Ghawar's stuffed.

Bush living in a dreamworld? Or maybe he is just a puppet for big commercial interests who rather gather in the (oil) money while they still can, and stuff the world. MD is right in his post that the ever increasing price of oil (partly artificial, partly because of Peak Oil) is a serious threat to the world. I do expect a serious recession within 5 years, with a good possibility of resource wars. Not good!

Indeed everyone should read books like Twilight in the Desert - serious concerns that the OPEC countries can not increase production anymore - and Ghawar looks like it has peaked too.

On a lighter note, but still serious, have a look at http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OqZMTY4V7Ts, the first of 7 small videos about resource consumption. Quite funny

[Nitaa]

Bush living in a dreamworld? Or maybe he is just a puppet for big commercial interests who rather gather in the (oil) money while they still can, and stuff the world. MD is right in his post that the ever increasing price of oil (partly artificial, partly because of Peak Oil) is a serious threat to the world. I do expect a serious recession within 5 years, with a good possibility of resource wars. Not good!

Indeed everyone should read books like Twilight in the Desert - serious concerns that the OPEC countries can not increase production anymore - and Ghawar looks like it has peaked too.

On a lighter note, but still serious, have a look at http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OqZMTY4V7Ts, the first of 7 small videos about resource consumption. Quite funnyYes he is Dick Cheneys puppet. Dick and Halliburton have made billions under the bush admin

[friedegg]

I would think that the very thing that you all seem so gleefull about will end up biting you on the bum. Soaring oil prices are the worst thing that can happen if it goes beyond reasonable levels.
This will speed up the coming recession, or havent you noticed the down trending markets?. it will also speed up research into alternatives to replace our total dependance on fossil fuels. It will raise the level of risk of total war being declared on some country that has the last remaining oil wells.
I look on the price of oil and fear that the blind greed of mankind will bring us all down. Macdunk
i think mcdunk must have brought a dodge viper with his remarkable share returns from last year and now is whinging about the cost of gas!!along with putting 100% of my savings and more into nzo 4 years ago and having ahard time at that i also saw vision to buy 2 scooters and a one owner 1986 1300 manual mitsi mirage,i travel in excess of 1000km a week and my total fuel bill last month was $335

[digger]

My computer played up and was off line for two days.Withdral systoms were causing some discomforts.
In my absance i see on TV1 this morning that TUI was upgraded by 5 million barrels.That was bad reporting as it was a little more complicated than that.It was supposted to have read that the Umuroa has its lease term extended to cover 5 additional barrells and that a regrade is taking place for TUI and these results will be out before end june08. Still not too bad for the media.

Also currently see that Tapis is at 140.6,so if NZ dollar is 77US cents then we have the magic one million dollar gross revenue from TUI.
140.6[1/.77][45000][.125]=1,028,137

[bermuda]

My computer played up and was off line for two days.Withdral systoms were causing some discomforts.
In my absance i see on TV1 this morning that TUI was upgraded by 5 million barrels.That was bad reporting as it was a little more complicated than that.It was supposted to have read that the Umuroa has its lease term extended to cover 5 additional barrells and that a regrade is taking place for TUI and these results will be out before end june08. Still not too bad for the media.

Also currently see that Tapis is at 140.6,so if NZ dollar is 77US cents then we have the magic one million dollar gross revenue from TUI.
140.6[1/.77][45000][.125]=1,028,137

Fancy the US House of representatives voting by an overwhelming majority to pass a bill to sue OPEC. Bush will have to veto this. Gordon Brown has had a go too.

Matt Simmons foresaw all this and wrote about it...in English, Chinese and German.

If you havent read this book please do. Get a copy 2moro and read it. You wont regret it.

Oil goes higher.

[Wilkins_Micawber]

Quote from the news release "Studies into modifications to the Umuroa to increase water handling capacity to 150,000 barrels a day and to accommodate the planned Tui 4H production well are underway."

This would be a 25% increase to the water handling capacity - wouldn't this also allow a 25% increase in the oil which could be extracted per day (since it is the Umuroa which is the limitition isn't it?).

If this is correct then a 25% increase in production over the life of Tui (i.e. 25% per annum) would be significant, PLUS the extension to the number of years that the FPSO is chartered for !!

Are we in for a SIGNIFICANT upgrade of TUI 2P reserves (or am I being overly optimistic???)

[digger]

Quote from the news release "Studies into modifications to the Umuroa to increase water handling capacity to 150,000 barrels a day and to accommodate the planned Tui 4H production well are underway."

This would be a 25% increase to the water handling capacity - wouldn't this also allow a 25% increase in the oil which could be extracted per day (since it is the Umuroa which is the limitition isn't it?).

If this is correct then a 25% increase in production over the life of Tui (i.e. 25% per annum) would be significant, PLUS the extension to the number of years that the FPSO is chartered for !!

Are we in for a SIGNIFICANT upgrade of TUI 2P reserves (or am I being overly optimistic???)

WM i did not take it to mean as you have put it. To me it simply meant that with the expected water increase the upgrade would allow the 45000 to 50000 to go on longer.At 150000 of liquides we could have a water cut of 70 to 75% and still be getting our present 45000 of oil.That is what i think it meant never a suggestion of getting more than 50000 of oil. That is enought in any event.What is left can just stay there for now and get more valuable.

The significant upgrade you mentioned. Well my thoughts are well recorded in former posts.
Cheers.

[the machine]

Tui fuels NZOG surge

Neil Ritchie, New Zealand
Thursday, 22 May 2008

NEW Zealand Oil & Gas was the star performer of an otherwise awful first 2008 quarter on the New Zealand Exchange, but the company remains undervalued on equity fundamentals and when compared with some Australian peers, according to broker McDouall Stuart.

headlines from energy review

M

[Wilkins_Micawber]

WM i did not take it to mean as you have put it. To me it simply meant that with the expected water increase the upgrade would allow the 45000 to 50000 to go on longer.At 150000 of liquides we could have a water cut of 70 to 75% and still be getting our present 45000 of oil.That is what i think it meant never a suggestion of getting more than 50000 of oil. That is enought in any event.What is left can just stay there for now and get more valuable.

The significant upgrade you mentioned. Well my thoughts are well recorded in former posts.
Cheers.

Most likely by the time the Umuroa was reconfigured, the barrels per day will be down to 40,000 or less. So they should then get an immediate increase in extraction capacity of 25% when the upgrade is completed. Ordinarily you would expect this to mean they could "empty the well" 25% quicker. However, they have also extended the lease not reduced it !!

If the current expected life for Tui was say 5 years from when they hit 40,000 barrels per day and they can now get say 7 years (hence the extension) at 125% of the previous expectation, that would have to be a sgnificant increase, nes pas? The 5 to 7 year extension at 125% would produced a 75% increase :-)

Note: the 75% increase would be on the remaining reserves when the hit 40,000 barrels per day - it would not affect the 12.7m or so barrels already extracted. Current 2P reserves (prior to this announcement) was 41.7m less 12.7 extracted = 29m 2P available. If this was increased 75% that is nearly 20M more, on top of the total 41.7, OR VERY close to your figure of 60M digger ;);):):)

[the machine]

over 6.5 million options traded thursday between nzx / asx

asx finished very strong

M

[dsurf]

International Energy Agency worried about oil supplies, predicts 'new world energy order'

PARIS (AP) -- A leading global energy monitor fears there may not be enough oil to slake the world's thirst -- and is preparing a landmark forecast that could reverberate through the global economy even as major companies announce fuel-related cutbacks.
The International Energy Agency is studying depletion rates at about 400 oil fields in a first-of-its-kind study of world oil supply, chief economist Fatih Birol said.
"We are entering a new world energy order, " Birol told The Associated Press.
Market analysts call the Paris-based IEA the world's most reliable independent source of oil information and welcomed its decision to undertake a deep study of oil supplies.
But the IEA's new forecasts are likely to further upset markets. Oil prices hit an all-time high Thursday above $135 a barrel before falling back.
Less oil would mean even higher prices for everything from gasoline to food. Already, airlines squeezed by jet fuel costs are bleeding profits and predicting cutbacks and industry upheaval. Ford Motor Co. said Thursday it was cutting production of gas-guzzling sport utility vehicles and forecast more rough times ahead.
Birol said the IEA study, whose results will be released in November, was prompted by concern about the volatility of world oil markets and uncertainty about supply levels.
"The prices are very high, and demand did not respond in the last few years as much as one would have expected," Birol said. "The growth in terms of production was not great. We did not see enough investment."
The spurt in oil prices Thursday came after a report in the Wall Street Journal that the IEA was planning to lower its forecast for long-term world supply.
Birol would not speculate on whether the forecast, which will predict supplies through 2030, could go sharply downward. "We will see," he said.
The IEA's past forecasts put oil supply at about 116 million barrels a day in 2030, up from 87 million barrels a day now.
"Although the agency's official assessment isn't expected until later this year, the market's interpretation is that global supply may be significantly tighter than previously projected by the major oil market monitors," said Jim Ritterbusch, president of energy trading advisory service Ritterbusch and Associates in Galena, Illinois.
Birol said oil companies and governments have cooperated with IEA experts preparing the report, but added, "It is not an easy task. It is the first time this is being done in the public domain on such a scale."
Simon Wardell, oil analyst at Global Insight in London, was skeptical that the IEA would get a complete picture from "countries that are very closely guarded" such as Saudi Arabia, the No. 1 producer.
That is important because Birol said one of the key shifts coming up is that the world will become increasingly reliant on national oil companies instead of multinational ones.
"Up to now, we have seen that the international oil companies were responsible for bringing a big chunk of the oil to the markets. Now, in many cases, since existing reserves are declining, a big part of oil will need to come from national oil companies. And they have their own conditions, their own context."
Birol called for greater investment everywhere. Wardell said the IEA report would have limited effect on investment. "It's not like oil companies aren't already looking around," he said. But he said governments could take notice and "start thinking of policies that would ensure more oil." Birol noted that, "Both on the demand side and supply side, we have new actors who change the rules of the game." He said most demand now and in the coming decades will come from China, India and the Middle East. That is a stark shift from past decades, when the U.S. and Europe were demand-drivers.
The IEA is part of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, which brings together 30 rich nations. It has no links to OPEC, and its review may challenge the Organization for Petroleum Exporting Countries' view that the world is well-supplied with oil.
Birol said the report is looking at onshore and offshore supplies -- including hard-to-reach wells in the deep sea. He noted that Brazilian state oil company Petroleo Brasileiro SA said Thursday it has struck more oil in waters near the huge offshore Tupi field -- but remained cautious about how much "good oil" such fields would produce.

[bermuda]

The IEA should have done this 5 years ago when they were spouting that there wasnt a problem until well after 2030.

For a bit of a laugh tune into CNBC where some of their analysts say oil is a commodity and as such prices will go up and down.What a laugh.

Oil is not a commodity. It is a PRECIOUS FINITE RESOURCE.

[duncan macgregor]

The IEA should have done this 5 years ago when they were spouting that there wasnt a problem until well after 2030.

For a bit of a laugh tune into CNBC where some of their analysts say oil is a commodity and as such prices will go up and down.What a laugh.

Oil is not a commodity. It is a PRECIOUS FINITE RESOURCE. BERMUDA, The very worst investment you would ever make is having shares in the very last producing oil well.
Peak oil is the top of the investing hill just wait to see the trouble and strife sliding down the other side. Raging wars famines you name it your problems are only starting, if you think its peak oil. In bad times buy only material things that you can see, that hold there value, like land. Money along with shares can all go down the drain at any time, but land is productive everlasting and they dont make any more. Macdunk

[trackers]

BERMUDA, The very worst investment you would ever make is having shares in the very last producing oil well.
Peak oil is the top of the investing hill just wait to see the trouble and strife sliding down the other side. Raging wars famines you name it your problems are only starting, if you think its peak oil. In bad times buy only material things that you can see, that hold there value, like land. Money along with shares can all go down the drain at any time, but land is productive everlasting and they dont make any more. Macdunk

Yep, land is what we buy with our profits from oil investments! :D

[arjay]

McDunk,
If you are correct then you'd better buy a gun with your land. I doubt all those famished war-mongers are going to let you grow your cabbages in peace.

[duncan macgregor]

McDunk,
If you are correct then you'd better buy a gun with your land. I doubt all those famished war-mongers are going to let you grow your cabbages in peace.
ARJAY, The clan motto reads [Loses a bit converted back to the language of your understanding]. AS LONG AS THERE ARE LEAVES IN THHE FOREST FOAM IN THE STREAM MACGREGOR SHALL FLORISH DESPITE THEM FOREVER. That was wrote after they passed a law in parliment that anyone pertaining to have or has the name of MACGREGOR to be exterminated man woman and child. YOUS is welcome to try and steal the cabbages my friend. Macdunk

PS I wonder if they ever rescinded that law.

[digger]

The IEA should have done this 5 years ago when they were spouting that there wasnt a problem until well after 2030.

For a bit of a laugh tune into CNBC where some of their analysts say oil is a commodity and as such prices will go up and down.What a laugh.

Oil is not a commodity. It is a PRECIOUS FINITE RESOURCE.

Well said bermuda. Your phrase that oil is a PRECIOUS FINITE RESOURCE is the way i put it when i am talking to people in my patch here.Strang that oil would not become a commodity yet we humans have said it was thoughts of time. Oil behave yourself and do as we humans say.Interesting how i am starting to go from a far out nut to a 'probably knew what he was talking about all alone. Although some still say i GOT LUCKY.
There is one very sad case of individual who thought i was a nut and somewhat told me he wanted nothing to do with my crasy thinking[PO rubish] .Recently he [and her] have lost 1.6 million in blue chips and other finance companies. In that time i have made about the same amount in my crasy PO investments. MY new house is geting completed,theirs had to be concelled. I am saying this to highlight the world we are rapiddly moving into. It will not be pretty and reality will have to be forced onto most of my fellow man unfortunately.

[digger]

BERMUDA, The very worst investment you would ever make is having shares in the very last producing oil well.
Peak oil is the top of the investing hill just wait to see the trouble and strife sliding down the other side. Raging wars famines you name it your problems are only starting, if you think its peak oil. In bad times buy only material things that you can see, that hold there value, like land. Money along with shares can all go down the drain at any time, but land is productive everlasting and they dont make any more. Macdunk

Surely you mean buy into the last oil well,otherwise i can not understand your mind.

[duncan macgregor]

Surely you mean buy into the last oil well,otherwise i can not understand your mind. Digger it would be like owning a gold mine in the middle of a war zone it would get blown off the face of the map. Macdunk

[AMR]

Digger it would be like owning a gold mine in the middle of a war zone it would get blown off the face of the map. Macdunk

Or the guy driving the oil tanker in Mad Max 2...

[Hoop]

Surely you mean buy into the last oil well,otherwise i can not understand your mind.

I'm with Duncan here

If that single oil well is vital to the worlds energy. "The only oasis in the desert" scenerio applies

e.g A dying of thirst man's dream of survivial dashed by being eaten by preditors who are waiting for your arrival. A very dangerous place.


If it is the last oil well and alternative energy has superceded oil, lost leader pricing strategy will be operating.
I bit like a person in 1860 seeing 150 years into the future and seeing only one candle maker and presuming he/she must be making obscene amounts of money supplying candles to the world...and can't figure out why he/she is struggling to make a profit.

[arjay]

ARJAY, The clan motto reads [Loses a bit converted back to the language of your understanding]. AS LONG AS THERE ARE LEAVES IN THHE FOREST FOAM IN THE STREAM MACGREGOR SHALL FLORISH DESPITE THEM FOREVER. That was wrote after they passed a law in parliment that anyone pertaining to have or has the name of MACGREGOR to be exterminated man woman and child. YOUS is welcome to try and steal the cabbages my friend. Macdunk

PS I wonder if they ever rescinded that law.


My mother was a Scot. Her family's surname translates into "You shall want before I want", so guard your cabbages well my friend.

[Hoop]

The IEA should have done this 5 years ago when they were spouting that there wasnt a problem until well after 2030.

For a bit of a laugh tune into CNBC where some of their analysts say oil is a commodity and as such prices will go up and down.What a laugh.

Oil is not a commodity. It is a PRECIOUS FINITE RESOURCE.

Probably not in my best interests in re-entering into this debate.....
aggghhh what the Hell!!...here goes
Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia (http://www.reference.com/go/http://wikipedia.org/wiki/Wikipedia:Copyrights) - Cite This Source (http://www.reference.com/cite.html?qh=Commodity&ia=wiki)



A commodity is anything for which there is demand (http://www.reference.com/browse/wiki/Demand), but which is supplied without qualitative (http://www.reference.com/browse/wiki/Qualitative) differentiation (http://www.reference.com/browse/wiki/Differentiation) across a given market. Characteristic of commodities is that their prices are determined as a function of their market as a whole. Well-established physical commodities have actively traded spot and derivative markets. Generally, these are basic resources and agricultural (http://www.reference.com/browse/wiki/Agriculture) products such as iron ore (http://www.reference.com/browse/wiki/Iron_ore), crude oil (http://www.reference.com/browse/wiki/Crude_oil), coal (http://www.reference.com/browse/wiki/Coal), ethanol (http://www.reference.com/browse/wiki/Ethanol), sugar (http://www.reference.com/browse/wiki/Sugar), soybeans (http://www.reference.com/browse/wiki/Soybeans), aluminium (http://www.reference.com/browse/wiki/Aluminium), rice (http://www.reference.com/browse/wiki/Rice), wheat (http://www.reference.com/browse/wiki/Wheat), gold (http://www.reference.com/browse/wiki/Gold) and silver (http://www.reference.com/browse/wiki/Silver).

[bermuda]

Probably not in my best interests in re-entering into this debate.....
aggghhh what the Hell!!...here goes
Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia (http://www.reference.com/go/http://wikipedia.org/wiki/Wikipedia:Copyrights) - Cite This Source (http://www.reference.com/cite.html?qh=Commodity&ia=wiki)



A commodity is anything for which there is demand (http://www.reference.com/browse/wiki/Demand), but which is supplied without qualitative (http://www.reference.com/browse/wiki/Qualitative) differentiation (http://www.reference.com/browse/wiki/Differentiation) across a given market. Characteristic of commodities is that their prices are determined as a function of their market as a whole. Well-established physical commodities have actively traded spot and derivative markets. Generally, these are basic resources and agricultural (http://www.reference.com/browse/wiki/Agriculture) products such as iron ore (http://www.reference.com/browse/wiki/Iron_ore), crude oil (http://www.reference.com/browse/wiki/Crude_oil), coal (http://www.reference.com/browse/wiki/Coal), ethanol (http://www.reference.com/browse/wiki/Ethanol), sugar (http://www.reference.com/browse/wiki/Sugar), soybeans (http://www.reference.com/browse/wiki/Soybeans), aluminium (http://www.reference.com/browse/wiki/Aluminium), rice (http://www.reference.com/browse/wiki/Rice), wheat (http://www.reference.com/browse/wiki/Wheat), gold (http://www.reference.com/browse/wiki/Gold) and silver (http://www.reference.com/browse/wiki/Silver).

Hoop,
They should take crude oil off the list. A commodity to me is an ongoing resource that is priced according to supply and demand.

Oil ( unfortunately ) has been treated like a commodity because the economists of the world thought it was infinite (ongoing ) and and all you had to do was produce more and the price would would fall.

Unfortunately we are dealing with a precious finite resource that despite ever increasing prices, has not increased in production since 2005.

So its time to take crude oil off that definition and realise it is not a commodity.

[Nitaa]

Most or all of us know there is going to be severe repercussuions with Peak Oil and high oil prices. The very worst thing that can happen imo is oil spiking to over $200 or $300 in no time. This will lead to world devestation, famines, extremely high inflation and wars.

The best thing to happen is for oil to stabilize and trade between $100 and $130 (general figures). The reason being it would help stem inflation, make the world concious of deminisihing energy stocks and make alternative fuel become more viable.

Without trying to be a scaremonger, i fear the first paragraph is more likely and the world will be a much different place within the next decade.

On a sepeerate note. The increase in capacity for tui is mainly related to the high oil prices. At high prices the simple mathematics means if oil is at $150 at the time then they can extract oil that was non commercialble viable at say $100. Also the next obvious thing is the amount of oil being extracted will be way above the current 47m barrels stipulated in the lastest update. This even if oil drops or stablizes around $100 pbo imo.

Some food for though. Many countries are now energy importers much more than what there were 10 years ago. This means the small few that are net xporters have to share ther oil to even more countries, The very few get rich while most of us get poor. Of course this is the stuff that creates war. Iran is next on the US radar

[arjay]

I'm with Duncan here

If that single oil well is vital to the worlds energy. "The only oasis in the desert" scenerio applies

e.g A dying of thirst man's dream of survivial dashed by being eaten by preditors who are waiting for your arrival. A very dangerous place.


If it is the last oil well and alternative energy has superceded oil, lost leader pricing strategy will be operating.
I bit like a person in 1860 seeing 150 years into the future and seeing only one candle maker and presuming he/she must be making obscene amounts of money supplying candles to the world...and can't figure out why he/she is struggling to make a profit.

This is reminiscent of the booming stock market around acetylene lighting in the late 19th century - no one saw Thomas Edison coming up the street.

[digger]

I'm with Duncan here

If that single oil well is vital to the worlds energy. "The only oasis in the desert" scenerio applies

e.g A dying of thirst man's dream of survivial dashed by being eaten by preditors who are waiting for your arrival. A very dangerous place.


If it is the last oil well and alternative energy has superceded oil, lost leader pricing strategy will be operating.
I bit like a person in 1860 seeing 150 years into the future and seeing only one candle maker and presuming he/she must be making obscene amounts of money supplying candles to the world...and can't figure out why he/she is struggling to make a profit.

This is a good topic but unfortunately is off the mark. At the moment NZO's oil is hardly the last oil well so therefor should be avoided. It is the first of the over the peak oil wells,which is why it is so valuable. The last oil well is probably well after we are all dead even if your just old enought to read this post. It muddies the water to say or infer we are anywhere near the last oil well. It is what the PO advarcies use to confuse the issue. PO only means the point where oil will not flow from the ground any faster regardless of what technology we employ,which is the point we are at now.This is certainly not the end of oil,so put away your guns and war scenarios and invest in one of the first PO oil wells,which history will eventually show as the PEAK profit time.

[the machine]

surprised no one mentioned the kupe testing, lighting up the sky off the taranki coast for next week

then the shift to momoho whichhas potential to add a lot to nzo reserves

M

[Oiler]

surprised no one mentioned the kupe testing, lighting up the sky off the taranki coast for next week

then the shift to momoho whichhas potential to add a lot to nzo reserves

M

Machine we hope it is lighting up the skies next week :)............ its been a long time coming. Looks like the clean up is for real and then across the water to Momoho.

Oiler

[Hoop]

A question.....How much of this $130+/barrel is due to the Peak Oil factor and how much of it is due to speculative trading?

Theory has it that when Equities decline (Bear Market Phase) helped by the movement of available money away (decreased liquidity) from that sector, some of that available money (liquidity) flows into the Commodity market sector and prices rise due to the increased trading demands. A loose inverse correlation exists between the Equity sector and the Commodity sector, in such that when the Equity Sector enter a Bear-market phase the Commodity Sector usually enters into a bull market phase.
Note however that there is no such correlation between a single commodity such as Oil and Equities, which proves the suggestion that this increased liquidity in the Commodity sector moves around different commodities in a speculative fashion chasing the quick buck.

As Oil is traded within the Commodity Markets such as the very large ICE and Nymex Exchanges, we are seeing speculators active within this area at the moment. Just how much the speculators has pushed the price of crude oil up by will only be known when they suddenly exit the scene and move on to the next commodity within this sector.
It seems that Speculator activity must be very large at the moment as news out today that the US may curb Oil future speculative trading through increased regulations, in an attempt the stabilise commodity prices has been met with dismay from the free market commentators. Dubai is the latest to set a Commodity exchange dealing in oil futures and will commence trading on Tuesday. Any hint of regulations being placed on the Commodity trading market in the US may see a shift away from traditional organisations such as ICE and Nymex and see huge amounts of money shifting to other areas around the globe and away from the US



See Marketwatch Article (http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=ecdc33c02a1046168274158a8c593379&siteid=nwhwk)

[the machine]

just had a look at the production forecast from may 6 invester presentation and wondering what it will look like after tui upgrade due out in a few weeks, plus success at momoho.

quite exciting really

the fspo extension adds 12.5% of 5million barrels in later years, whereas the tui upgrade will apply straight away.


am expecting the tui upgrade will be out in plenty of time to influence the options - like mid june at the latest. thus allowing same options to be traded several times before the conversion.

doubt if momoho will have reached 1st target before options converted though - even if no weather delays for the shift

M

[winner69]

A question.....How much of this $130+/barrel is due to the Peak Oil factor and how much of it is due to speculative trading?



Hoop = answer may be here
http://www.mcadforums.com/forums/files/michael_masters_written_testimony.pdf

[digger]

Skyrocketing Oil Prices Stump Experts
Steven Mufson, Washington Post
Confused about oil prices? So are the experts.

Executives from the giant oil companies say it's partly the fault of "speculators" or financial players. Key financial players say it's really a question of limited supply and expanding global demand. Some members of Congress accuse the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries for bottling up some of its production capacity. And OPEC blames speculators, wasteful U.S. consumers and feckless U.S. policy.

Almost everyone points at China's growing appetite for fuel.

Whatever the causes, one of the most dizzying runs in the history of oil prices picked up pace yesterday -- again -- as crude oil prices jumped to settle at more than $133 a barrel, up $4.19 in one day, 18 percent so far this month and more than one-third so far this year.

... "The basic story that has brought oil from $20 to $130 dollars is that world demand is growing robustly when world supply is not," argued Jeffrey Rubin, chief economist of CIBC World Markets. "As a result, we need ever-higher world oil prices to kill demand in the [industrialized countries], which is exactly what's happening."
(22 May 2008)
Oil coverage by the Washington Post and New York Times continues to lag behind business publications like the Wall Street Journal and Financial Times. This article does not even mention "peak oil" and ignores the recent IEA pessimism. -BA

Winner 69 your piece was long but i got through most of it.Interesting that in the 5 years given that lead rose the most.
Anyways the way i see it is that everyone blames everyone else for why things are generally going up so much.There are many very good stories for who is to blame on energybulliten or the oil drum but i can not find the best one so used this one.
Answer---because it is and it is the other fellows fault.Just about everthing under the sun has been used as the excuse.Remember about two months ago it was Turkey invading the Kurds,but when the incursion was withdrawn oil did not go down.
Your pick.

[Hoop]

Hoop = answer may be here
http://www.mcadforums.com/forums/files/michael_masters_written_testimony.pdf
Very sober reading. Thxs Winner. Comfirms my suspicions.

[Chippie]

I was wondering if anyone had any observations on the Kupe Gross intervals of 62, 92 and 92M. It sounds pretty good and wondered if anyone has any idea how it compares to the intitial discovery wells?

Indicative Timing Top Depth Bottom Depth Gross
Interval
KS-8 23 May 3,513m 3,575m 62m
KS-6 26 May 3,014m 3,106m 92m
KS-7 29 May 3,188m 3,280m 92m
*Depths are measured depth below the rotary table (MDRT).

[bermuda]

Hoop = answer may be here
http://www.mcadforums.com/forums/files/michael_masters_written_testimony.pdf

Interesting article but a couple of questions

Why dont they speculate that the price is going to go down and I seriously wonder whether the author has read Twilight in the Desert.

[Corporate]

Interesting article but a couple of questions

Why dont they speculate that the price is going to go down and I seriously wonder whether the author has read Twilight in the Desert.


bermuda, you've recommended Twilight in the Desert a number of times. Do you know who stocks it? I haven't been able to find a copy.

[arjay]

bermuda, you've recommended Twilight in the Desert a number of times. Do you know who stocks it? I haven't been able to find a copy.

Same here,
it sounds like an important book, but there seems to be little demand for it (otherwise Whitcoulls and other NZ bookshps would sell it). I'v essen it on Amazon, but the postage is more than the price of the book. If anyone knows of anyone in NZ who sells it let us know.