NZ Oil & Gas (NZO)

[trackers]

Still no drilling at Momoho!! wtf?

[whirly]

okay - here I come.

10k capital

I want to invest 30% of my capital in NZO please in very simple terms explain should I buy options or heads?

I plan to also invest 20% into PRC and will hold 50% cash.

Sorry for such a basic question but for all my reading I still cant work it out for myself.

[Sehnsucht888]

Kupe Info

NZO
05/06/2008
MINE

REL: 0944 HRS New Zealand Oil and Gas Limited

MINE: NZO: Kupe Development Wells Drilling and Testing Summary

New Zealand Oil & Gas Ltd (NZOG) advises that the drilling and testing of the
three Kupe Development Wells in permit PML 38146 has been successfully
completed.

The three wells have been safely suspended pending the start-up of the Kupe
Gas Project by the middle of 2009.

Preliminary analysis of the well results, and in particular the well testing,
confirms that the wells and the reservoir have met expectations.

A composite summary of the well test results is as follows. Please note that
there is a change to the data previously released for Kupe South 6 (KS-6) as
not all correction factors had been applied to the condensate flow rate at
that time:

Key:
Well
Top Depth (m)
Bottom Depth (m)
Sustained Gas Rate(MMSCF/D)
Sustained Condensate Rate (STB/D)
Choke Size (1/64")
Surface Flowing pressure (psig)
Fluids Recovered
KS-8 3,513 3,575 33 3,840 64 2,100 Gas & Condensate
KS-6 3,014 3,106 41 5,130 56 3,030 Gas & Condensate
KS-7 3,188 3,280 42 6,393 56 3,051 Gas & Condensate
*Depths are MDRT (measured depth below rotary table).

Drilling of the three development wells began on 19 December 2007. All three
wells reached their target depths.

Well 22 inch 17 inch 12-1/4 inch 8-1/2 inch 6-1/8 inch
KS-6 560m 2,000m 2,895m 3,385m
KS-7 566m 2,000m 3,116m 3,454m
KS-7 ST1 3,503m
KS-8 568m 2,184m 3,429m 3,834m
*Depths are cumulative and show total well depth.

The ENSCO 107 drilling rig has now been secured for moving to the Momoho
exploration well location and will do so as soon as a weather window is
available. Momoho is approximately 6km southeast of the Kupe central field.

The Kupe Project is located within permit PML38146 in the offshore Taranaki
Basin, New Zealand, approximately 30km off the coast. The development
comprises production wells tied into an unmanned offshore platform, a 30 km
pipeline to shore, and an onshore processing station.

Participants in the Kupe Gas Project are:
Origin Energy Limited (through its subsidiary Origin
Energy Resources (Kupe) Limited)
50% (Operator)
Genesis Energy (through wholly owned subsidiaries)
31%
New Zealand Oil & Gas Limited (through wholly owned subsidiaries)
15%
Mitsui E&P Australia Pty Ltd
4%
End CA:00165635 For:NZO Type:MINE Time:2008-06-05:09:44:53

[Sehnsucht888]

Surely thats got to help the cause...

[bermuda]

okay - here I come.

10k capital

I want to invest 30% of my capital in NZO please in very simple terms explain should I buy options or heads?

I plan to also invest 20% into PRC and will hold 50% cash.

Sorry for such a basic question but for all my reading I still cant work it out for myself.

Whirly,
Go and buy some Heads and then relax.
Cheers.

Sorry, I reread your post and saw that you were going to hold 50% cash when both NZO and PRC are screaming to be bought??

Come on Whirly. Put it all on....and then sit back and relax.

[COLIN]

Just look at the lineup of large buyers for the options this morning!

[Nitaa]

okay - here I come.

10k capital

I want to invest 30% of my capital in NZO please in very simple terms explain should I buy options or heads?

I plan to also invest 20% into PRC and will hold 50% cash.

Sorry for such a basic question but for all my reading I still cant work it out for myself.You have left out pertenant info but going by what you are saying then you have no choice but to buy heads. Since you are looking at the term "investing" this means you should be looking at something not so risky. If you want to gamble then thats something else. In short, if you buy the options you have not enough left of you 5k to convert.

[whirly]

Thanks Nita and Bermuda

Nita - what did I leave out?

But agreed looks simpler just to buy the heads. Im going in - hope I dont have the cujo effect:)

W

[COLIN]

"Wells and reservoirs have met expectations".
Surely that should help to reinforce confidence. It does for me anyhow, and I will convert even more of my options.
And look at the PRC price - should power through $2 very soon now.

[The Great Gold Guru]

Have procrastinated about buying a few NZO for a couple of weeks now. This sell-off in oil the last few days has given me a "get out of jail card" so to speak as I thought NZO sub 160 days might have been over. Anyway just jumped in and bought 50,000 NZOOD at 5c. Will convert in a few weeks and sit back and enjoy the ride.

[Nitaa]

Thanks Nita and Bermuda

Nita - what did I leave out?

But agreed looks simpler just to buy the heads. Im going in - hope I dont have the cujo effect:)

W am referring to the fact that you have 10k to invest. You said you plan to invest 30% into nzo. this would mean at approx 5 cps to invest (if you chose the options your 30% or $3,000 you could acquire 60,000 of them. If you dont sell them in the next 3 weeks you will need to convert them costing you $90,000 (this figure im not sure if you were prepared to fork out addition capital).

Hope that explains it better

[Nitaa]

Have procrastinated about buying a few NZO for a couple of weeks now. This sell-off in oil the last few days has given me a "get out of jail card" so to speak as I thought NZO sub 160 days might have been over. Anyway just jumped in and bought 50,000 NZOOD at 5c. Will convert in a few weeks and sit back and enjoy the ride.Guru, this could be on of your best investments ever. well done

[Corporate]

Guru, this could be on of your best investments ever. well done


PRC goes up, NZO goes down :s


Any thought on whether I should wait to buy a truck load of heads after 30 June, or just go in now?

I was thinking that the price will drop some more when more shares are on issue.

[fish]

PRC goes up, NZO goes down :s


Any thought on whether I should wait to buy a truck load of heads after 30 June, or just go in now?

I was thinking that the price will drop some more when more shares are on issue.

The total number of shares will be approxiamately the same after 30th june as the number of options and shares are now-possibly slightly less.
There is selling pressure on the options as a lot of holders havnt the cash to convert-this drags down the price of heads . IMHO the head price will be over $2 by the end july.
Better to buy the options now-at 5 to 6 cents and convert on 30th june .
The options are more likekly to increase by 5 cents in the next week than decrease by 5 cents so this is the time to buy

[KiwiBear]

World-famous trader George Soros sent shivers through the market, after he commented that recent record oil prices are the result of a bubble caused by rumour-driven speculators.

Just checkout the prvious last 3 years hype and euphoria rises.
The chart shows a head'n shoulders pattern and or a failed pennant.
Has also broken through the 30 day MA and RSI heading south tgether with MACD (not shown)

My pick is a pullback at least to the prev resistance of $1.35, that will form new support. I would not be buying till it formed a V bottom with a cofirmed trend rise, and RSI bouncing off the 20 mark!

Just checkout the down trend of the US light crude charts.
Both moving averages are sloping to the downside, and it is making lower highs and lower lows.

Take care the Bear

[KiwiBear]

Just for intrest

[AMR]

I would agree with the charts being bearish, also OBV has been giving off divergences for a while now. However I'm willing to wait for momoho to be drilled and the oppies to expire. My entry in the competition is probably dead in the water.

[duncan macgregor]

[QUOTE=duncan macgregor;203386][QUOTE=duncan macgregor;202999][QUOTE=duncan macgregor;202415][QUOTE=duncan macgregor;201047]Competition to select NZO share price on conversion date June 30th
in the event of a tie the winner is the person with the correct score posting first
I will list you in posting order.
1,AMR 180c, 2, OILER 165c, 3,Macdunk 159c. 4,MATTYROO 158c.
5,SEAMUS 135c, 6,SERPIE 131c, 7, LIZ 120c, 8, STRAT157c.
9TRACKERS 168, 10, COLIN 170, 11,THE MACHINE 210c. 12,MALCOLM 200c.
13,SPOOK 172, 14,BIG BOB184c, 15,ZORBA 155c, 16, REMY 167c,
17 AMERICAN PSYCHO 175c 18 SHASTA 161c, 19RONTHEPOM 171c 20 PHAEDRUS 160.
21SHREWDY 169, 22 BERMUDA 149, 23 MORV 183c, 24 COALIE 188c
25 DIGGER 173c, 26 blank, 27 NITA 181c, 28 SUMMER NED 193c.
29 QOH 179c, 30 WK6332 225c 31 BALANCE $10-60 32 KS 162,
33 TOK3N 145c, 34 SHANE M 162.5c, 35CORRAN 156c, 36 MICK100 300c.
37 DSURF 154c, 38 SKEET 185c,39 MIBO 177c, 40 JAY 162c,
41 ZACMAN 187c, 42 GAMBLER33 115c, 43 ANUBUS144c, 44 BRUCETO9 164c.
45 romer 163c.46 HOOP 147c 47 RABBI 148c 48 ROTWEILLER 153c,
49 MINGEATHINAIOOS 150c,50 MANXMAN 195c, 51 MACDUFFY 146c, 52 BLOCKHEAD 198c,
53 777 226c,54 SWISSBOY 174c,55 AIRDALE166,56 CLIPS 178c,
57 PADDIE 196c,58 FOODEE 176, 59 BK152c,60 MPC182c,
61 STEVE 151,62 ONTHEMONEY 143, 63 LION 186, 64,TIM23 189c,
65 BOB C 190 66 RIF RAF 191c 67, OUT TO LUNCH 194 68 SEHNSUCHT888 192c,
69 PIETRADE 220c,70 ZAC 197c, 71,CAM 245C,72, CHALICE 214c,
73 GLENDOONIE 142c 74,UPSIDE_UMOP 159c,

[duncan macgregor]

I would think that the Auckland convention entries [THE FIRST EIGHT] that Mattyroo is in front coming into the straight with his $1-58 pipping Macdunk at $1-59. C-MON the blue eyed brigade talk the price up i want to win. Macdunk

[fish]

World-famous trader George Soros sent shivers through the market, after he commented that recent record oil prices are the result of a bubble caused by rumour-driven speculators.

Just checkout the prvious last 3 years hype and euphoria rises.
The chart shows a head'n shoulders pattern and or a failed pennant.
Has also broken through the 30 day MA and RSI heading south tgether with MACD (not shown)

My pick is a pullback at least to the prev resistance of $1.35, that will form new support. I would not be buying till it formed a V bottom with a cofirmed trend rise, and RSI bouncing off the 20 mark!

Just checkout the down trend of the US light crude charts.
Both moving averages are sloping to the downside, and it is making lower highs and lower lows.

Take care the Bear

Unwarranted scaremongering again Bear .It is ludicrous to use your charts to predict nzo shareprice which will be driven in the long-term by fundamentals .

It is interesting that the nz dollar conversion rate for the price of Tapis has only dropped minimally because of the fall in the nz/us dollar exchange rate

A barrel of tapis =us $128.14 @ 76.5 cents convesion rate=$168 nz or close to a million dollars a day to nzo and about $800,000 a day net profit !.
When the next quarterly figures are released to the market in july expect nzo to leap to over $2.
In the meantime expect the oil price to be volatile but dont make a big deal out of insignificant drops

[Sideshow Bob]

Shareprice and trading is undoubtedly been affected by the pending option exercise date. This would obviously affect any graphs. No doubt will probably be taken to task by Phraedrus!!

However always good to get a alternative viewpoint - there are plenty of people pumping NZO presently.

[Mick100]

Look's like my estimate of end june NZO shareprice ($3.00) is slightly on the high side. Please change my pick to $2.95 macdunk :)

[duncan macgregor]

Look's like my estimate of end june NZO shareprice ($3.00) is slightly on the high side. Please change my pick to $2.95 macdunk :) Sorry mick I cant do that but being a good sport if $2-95 is the winning number i will shout you a prize myself. I think that my first valuation of the options right at the start at 5c will be almost right on the button. Macdunk

[tim23]

Of course your pick will be right!

PS Are you the same guy who bagged PRC and said consider buying once coal was being produced?

[Mr Tommy]

From NZX release this afternoon: seems all those USD$$$ that NZO and PRC are/will be earning just became worth a bit more, like 1.7% more.

June 05 - Close: The New Zealand dollar tumbled to a three-week low and debt rallied strongly on Thursday as the central bank opened the door to interest rate cuts by the end of the year....
The kiwi shed half a cent immediately after the statement and continued to fall, finally settling more than 1.7 percent lower....
At 0500 GMT the kiwi was at $0.7653/63 compared with $0.7799/01 in late local trade on Wednesday.

[the machine]

oiler, have a look out the window and see if the Esnco 107 rig has shifted will you.

from energyreview website the headlines show today was the shifting day.


Origin to spud Momoho wildcat
(Thursday, 5 June 2008)

KUPE operator Origin Energy has suspended the three successful Kupe development wells offshore Taranaki and will today move the jack-up Ensco 107 rig to drill the nearby Momoho-1 wildcat.
Full Story...



regards

M

[Sideshow Bob]

How about a webcam out of Oilers window?

[the machine]

How about a webcam out of Oilers window?


great idea - can it also look at the nz/au exchange rate as cost of coversion the options just dropped to under au$1.21 today, thanks to indication of nz$ impending drop in interest rates.
Be great if rates dropped before end of June - may only have to pay au$1.18 to convert

M

[da puntzda]

Evening folks

Why is there advice in this fine forum to purchase the head shares when they can be purchased via the options for several cents less and dont have to be paid for several weeks?

An I missing something here?

[Sideshow Bob]

Welcome to Sharetrader Da Puntzda.

I think you probably picked this up specific to Whirley, where he may have been looking to put 2-3k into NZO. For a relatively small quantity, it is probably just as easy to buy heads, and as Bermuda said, sit back and relax.

It depends if you are going to exercise the options or have the money to do it. Or try to trade them.....

But for someone in Whirly's situation, the diffference is currently 2.5c = maximum of about $50. Probably a safer way than trying to get in at the lowest possible level.

Me, mostly have options who is likely to buy some more in the next week, to exercise in a months time.

[da puntzda]

Cheers Sideshow Bob,

good to get the first post under the belt, and it will be intersting to see if the discount widens as the options get closer to expiring.

[whirly]

Yeah I think thats how the advice was intended and I reckon pretty sound advice too.

Thanks

Whirly

[Corporate]

Alright so in terms of buying the options....what is the process for converting them when you purchase them say through ASB Securities online?

I don't want to get to 30 june and not have exercised :confused:

[777]

Copy of form you can print off from NZO website.

http://www.nzog.net/investorsSection/2008%20Options




New Zealand Oil & Gas Limited
NZ Reg. Coy. No.WN 037 842 ARBN 003 064 962
E-mail: enquiries@nzog.net
Website: www.nzo.co.nz

Level 20, 125 The Terrace
PO Box 10725
Wellington, New Zealand
Telephone: +64 4 495 2424
Facsimile: +64 4 495 2422
C:\Documents and Settings\Brian\My Documents\NZOG 2008 OPTIONS\NZOG EXERCISING 2008 OPTION.doc

EXERCISING 2008 OPTIONS

To convert options into ordinary shares in New Zealand Oil & Gas Limited the
options can be exercised any time before 30 June 2008 by the payment of NZ$1.50
for each option being converted. Cheques or bank drafts should be payable to “New
Zealand Oil & Gas Limited”, crossed “non-transferable”, and be in New Zealand
currency.

The exercising of options can be undertaken by printing this form of Notice of
Exercise of Options, adding your option holder details, and sending the form together
with your cheque or bank draft to the appropriate share registry.

If you have any questions please email enquiries@nzog.com


NOTICE OF EXERCISE OF OPTIONS

NAME______________________________________________ ___

ADDRESS___________________________________________ __

_____________________________________________

HOLDER NUMBER____________________________

NUMBER OF OPTIONS________________________

NOTE: All of the above information should be as it appears on your most recent Transaction Statement.

I wish to exercise my 2008 options and convert them to ordinary shares.

Enclosed is my cheque or bank draft made payable to New Zealand Oil & Gas
Limited for NZ$___________________ being NZ$1.50 per option held.

SIGNATURE_______________________________________

NOTE: When you have completed this form mail it, together with your cheque,

if your options are registered on the Australian share register – to

Computershare Investor Services Pty Limited; GPO Box 7045, Sydney, NSW 2001, Australia

if your options are registered on the New Zealand share register – to

Computershare Investor Services Limited; Private Bag 92119, Auckland 1142, New Zealand

[Sehnsucht888]

Postive Signs:
PRC going up
US Exchange rate down
Oil Up
Dow up 1.75%

Negative Signs
Its Friday

Todays Prediction based on technical analysis:
Going Up.


Disclosure:
I am not a financial adviser. Technical analysis based on coin tosses is as good as any other I can come up with. 4 heads in a row is a positive indicator.... of sorts..

[duncan macgregor]

Postive Signs:
PRC going up
US Exchange rate down
Oil Up
Dow up 1.75%

Negative Signs
Its Friday

Todays Prediction based on technical analysis:
Going Up.


Disclosure:
I am not a financial adviser. Technical analysis based on coin tosses is as good as any other I can come up with. 4 heads in a row is a positive indicator.... of sorts.. You dont have to be a tosser to understand what is about to happen leading up to conversion. There will be lots of selling pressure on the options and the heads, with the average Joe Blow scratching about to find that extra money to convert. I being of sound mind sold mine right at the start for 9c much to the amusement of the blue eyed brigade. I valued the options at 5c taking into account the risk involved, as you are finding out at conversion with people being forced to sell either the heads or the options to raise the cash required. The share price after conversion will be diluted by all those extra mouths to feed, coming in at $1-50 into a company that otherwise would have had a much higher share price.
The only reason i see for the extra money rolling in, which was not required is that the company will now have a longer period for the management to swill at the trough. They have been very good at that in the past, cant see it changing, its something to keep close watch on. Just incase you wondered what i did with my option 9c i doubled it twice plus got an 11% exchange rate gain on it where it now sits safely in the bank waiting to buy road kill. Macdunk

[Bilo]

You dont have to be a tosser ... Macdunk
McD despite our concerns most comments i heard about the stunning day on the markets earlier this morning is that a further serious downturn is much less likely over the next couple of months. Oil back up USD5 and the market shrugging it off! Time to dump your bear suit and put on your crash helmet. If you don't buy NZO/NZOOD/PRC the rest of the world will have already bought them.

That sharemarket participant who has maintained his blocking stake on the sell side of NZO while sweeping up the Options should be made known (and his actions made visible) to the investing public - not just the secret society - the NZX and its brokers. Instead Condoned manipulation.

Unfortunately Bollard missed a golden opportunity for NZ to reclaim their sharemarket (if he had of reduced interest rates yesterday). In Gods lucky country we are indeed unfortunate to have been saddled with these incompetents (the Miser and the Wharf post) for the last 9 years.

[Wilkins_Micawber]

[/B]

Unfortunately Bollard missed a golden opportunity for NZ to reclaim their sharemarket (if he had of reduced interest rates yesterday). In Gods lucky country we are indeed unfortunate to have been saddled with these incompetents (the Miser and the Wharf post) for the last 9 years.

Are you referring to our industrious leaders ... Comrade Clark and Mr Fiscal Drag ;)

[Bilo]

Are you referring to our industrious leaders ... Comrade Clark and Mr Fiscal Drag ;)
Almost got it Wilkins - Killen Cullen not Aunty Hel.

Can someone do the maths I think NZO's Tui share must have made the NZD1M per day with the NZD down and oil up and production steady...:D

[Hoop]

Bilo Quote..."That sharemarket participant who has maintained his blocking stake on the sell side of NZO while sweeping up the Options should be made known (and his actions made visible) to the investing public - not just the secret society - the NZX and its brokers. Instead Condoned manipulation."

I'm glad you criticised Labour Government to balance your left wing comment/argument.

God forbid more regulations especially into a free trading market such as a stock exchange...

It is a part of human behaviour which over the last several hundred years theories have evolved around i.e Dow Theory, investor behaviour principles and trading behaviour techniques called TA nowadays
If investors use these basic foundations of knowledge and techniques and apply them to their investment activity there would be not need to cry foul...use your basic knowledge to take the advantage of the situation.

Expect all sorts of shenanigans between now and the 27th

One of the reasons I sold NZO to Trichia and used his money to buy PPP :D

[zac]

Accident Compensation Corporation has declared a 5.5% interest. Still accumulating?

[Wilkins_Micawber]

ACC has just disclosed it has become a substantial holder with a 5.49% holding in NZO - a good sign :)

[Sehnsucht888]

Look who's back on board... Stocking up on options too.

NZO
06/06/2008
SSH

REL: 1034 HRS New Zealand Oil and Gas Limited

SSH: NZO: Disclosure of beginning to have substantial holding

Disclosure of beginning to have substantial holding
Section 22, Securities Markets Act 1988
To NZX
And New Zealand Oil & Gas Ltd
Date this disclosure made: 06/06/2008
Substantial security holder(s) giving disclosure
Name(s): Accident Compensation Corporation
Contact details: Nicholas Bagnall ; +64 4 918 7751 ;
Nicholas.bagnall@acc.co.nz
Date on which substantial security holder(s) began to have substantial
holding: 05/06/2008
Summary of substantial holding to which disclosure relates
Class of listed voting securities: NZ Oil & Gas Options
Summary for Accident Compensation Corporation
For this disclosure,--
(a) total number held in class: 7,605,081
(b) total in class: 138,461,322
(c) total percentage held in class: 5.49%

[Hoop]

ACC took their time... should have accumulated with the rest of us when back in January at a $1.00 we all knew it was grossly undervalued...all except the big institutions it seemed.

That's probably why I am paying obscene annual fees to ACC:mad:

Anyway its positive news for shareholders:). It will help underpin the shareprice, and give investors more confidence in NZO.

[the machine]

thought a substantial holding in options did not have to be declared.

still good to see they are there and one would expect will convert same

M

[Sehnsucht888]

ACC at least should be one holder not under pressure for $ to convert.

Is NZCSD an ACC only holding vehicle, or does it include others?
Maybe they need to declare the holding as they already have almost 14% of the heads. Whats the dilution on that holding if all options convert..

[dsurf]

ACC were in at 90c to 100 & took profits at 1.20 or so 6 months or so ago. Will they be in for the long haul this time! Pity we can't find out what they are thinking?

[Steve]

ACC at least should be one holder not under pressure for $ to convert.

Is NZCSD an ACC only holding vehicle, or does it include others?
Maybe they need to declare the holding as they already have almost 14% of the heads. Whats the dilution on that holding if all options convert..

NZCSD hold on behalf of most major institutions...

[Hoop]

hoop read the back of nzod annual reports for last 10 yrs ACC HAS BEEN ACCUMULATING SINCE 30 CENT DAY thats why you still got acc.:rolleyes::rolleyes:

Ohh...yeah :o:o now I remember... reading that up when I researched NZO last year .....Hmmmm early signs of mad cow??

ACC:rolleyes::rolleyes: :)

[bermuda]

oil back up us$128 barrel love watching cnbc 2am through 3am all the yank experts were saying in last few days oil BUBBLE HAS BURST- oil now on downwid trend to day they are confused..its a( comic show at times) digger they need your positive help.:):)

Even George Soros said the oil bubble had burst. I would have thought he knew better.

[boxburger]

Hi, I hopped on a few days ago with a parcel of options. I was around for the conversion of the nogoc's, I had a play then too. As it turned it out, I played wrong and took a minor loss, in hindsight, I didn't need to. I like to think I'm a little better prepared this time round, a few more years of paying attention and the safety net of conversion $ in the bank.

I think I've noticed something that I've found interesting. I'm having trouble finding detailed history but if my memory serves me well, I think the nogoc's behaved much like the nzood's have been. Similar time-line price action so far. I think I recall the nogoc's taking a big dive at the beginning of the month of conversion too, followed by a steady climb.

The fundamentals and future prospects are looking a lot different this time round, many circumstances are different, so this is largely crystal ball gazing. I find my perceived connection interesting all the same.

[digger]

Even George Soros said the oil bubble had burst. I would have thought he knew better.

I saw that to Bermuda but i immediately drew the conclusion he believed the opposite and wanted others to sell to him.

[digger]

Hi, I hopped on a few days ago with a parcel of options. I was around for the conversion of the nogoc's, I had a play then too. As it turned it out, I played wrong and took a minor loss, in hindsight, I didn't need to. I like to think I'm a little better prepared this time round, a few more years of paying attention and the safety net of conversion $ in the bank.

I think I've noticed something that I've found interesting. I'm having trouble finding detailed history but if my memory serves me well, I think the nogoc's behaved much like the nzood's have been. Similar time-line price action so far. I think I recall the nogoc's taking a big dive at the beginning of the month of conversion too, followed by a steady climb.

The fundamentals and future prospects are looking a lot different this time round, many circumstances are different, so this is largely crystal ball gazing. I find my perceived connection interesting all the same.
Hi boxburger and welcome to the show.
Your memory is right in the path taken but wrong in the timing. The oc took a big hit with 3 months to go and steadly increased in the last 6 weeks.This time the biggest difference is still not factored in and that is that this is the last chance for the big cheap topup. After this it is go without or buy on market.The chances of a further placement or cash issue or more options in the next few years is virtually nil.
The options will make a big upward movement next week as this slowly evolves itself,and with the removel of sellers who had no cash to convert.Then stand by for NZO to recatch up with PRC after 1 july.

[sideline]

The Taranaki Daily News reports today re Mohomo that "Weather permitting,
the rig was expected to start moving last night, and spud the well during the weekend."

Can somebody in NP look out the window and confirm if it has moved, please? Thx

[zac]

Nearly 1 million Ords thru today. Could someone put up a graph of volume against price over the last 2 weeks?

[ritchie]

could someone also explain why...if PRC is shooting ahead ...and NZO has a sizeable stake of them...why isnt NZO slowely rising........dont understand this share game sometimes

[Corporate]

could someone also explain why...if PRC is shooting ahead ...and NZO has a sizeable stake of them...why isnt NZO slowely rising........dont understand this share game sometimes

I'd like to know the same! and also how much value is factored into NZO's share price for Mohomo.....i.e if it is a dud, how much will the SP go down by

[Sehnsucht888]

could someone also explain why...if PRC is shooting ahead ...and NZO has a sizeable stake of them...why isnt NZO slowely rising........dont understand this share game sometimes

138,461,322 Options still to be converted and people needing a combined $207,691,983.00 to convert them

[trackers]

could someone also explain why...if PRC is shooting ahead ...and NZO has a sizeable stake of them...why isnt NZO slowely rising........dont understand this share game sometimes

options...must be converted, putting pressure on heads to do so...also will then dilute your shareholdings...momoho late, could be dry...


July onwards this thing will scream

[Bilo]

I think there is a reassessment of the value of Australian oil and gas stocks underway. And the valuation methods that some organisations have erroneously been applying. Clearly they have been depressing the expected value and it took the BG Group offer for Origin to wake them up. The POO has not been factored in (unlike the price of coal that they are unable to ship).

A back of the matchbox value for NZO could now be:
Pike River 130M (at market but probably their biggest asset)
Tui 400M
Kupe 400M
Cash and prospects 70M plus option money 200M
All up 1200M
Shares on issue or about to be issued 400M
Value North of $3 per share. Bear market excepted. Takeovers excepted. Another ramp or recognition of reality is for you to determine;)
P.S. Don't give your shares away, there is a limit to how many I can take...you can Unicorn because I know that you are very confident of your valuations.

I still think Bermuda you should stop down-ramping the expected values of NZO, PRC and PPP:p
From your post, Bermuda, I take it that you are back in at least NZO and PRC.

DYOR and calcs but this is good enough for me to realise that there is room for the SP to move post June 30. Some temporary dumping of options that people don't expect their bank to give them the cash to convert (Is this because the banks want more for themselves?:D)

I have to admit to a little "conservative" valuation back then. Although I didn't want to upset Unicorn or McD by suggesting PRC was worth more than the market valued it at....

The little hint was pretty good - "NZO's biggest asset" now the market says PRC is worth $533M - NZO's share approaching $180M. this time next year and PRC might have overtaken the other two..unless Momoho comes in...:D]

Maybe CASH will be their biggest asset LOL!

[CAM]

Have always wondered whether this would be a GPG target.
I don't know what GPG spent their war chest of cash on...maybe poured some into Coates and then there is their increase in Tower holding. Perhaps they have nothing left.
But with the amount of cash this is generating and the PRC holding...it must be tempting for someone to buy a lot of options and convert to a substantial holding, get on the board and start playing with the lollies.

[Bixbite]

Quote: -
Posted by Unicorn on 20-04-08 p206 #3082
http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?t=5112&page=206

He valued Tui 84 cps and cash 21 cps

Quote: -
Posted by Bilo on 07-05-08 p238 #3568
http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?t=5112&page=238

He valued Tui 400M, Cash and prospects 70M

***********

Unicorn and Bilo,

I have a small question on your both calcs on Tui’s value.

As we know that Tui has been produced about 30% (based on the latest 2P oil reserves 41.7M), those 30% production has become cash.

My question is: - Do we need to do a small adjustment on the calculations or you have done that?

Cheers
Bixbite

[zorba]

.
Malcolm,

PRC at $2.50 is too cheep ....... it would be a steel.

Once in full production, and if coking coal prices hold up, then I'm picking north of $4.00 !!

Z

[upside_umop]

I have to admit to a little "conservative" valuation back then. Although I didn't want to upset Unicorn or McD by suggesting PRC was worth more than the market valued it at....

The little hint was pretty good - "NZO's biggest asset" now the market says PRC is worth $533M - NZO's share approaching $180M. this time next year and PRC might have overtaken the other two..unless Momoho comes in...:D]

Maybe CASH will be their biggest asset LOL!

Bilo...Don't bag Unicorn. His valuations are very factual, based off a set assumptions which he states. Conversely, yours appear to be biased and unjustified.

$400million for Tui? Thats not factual (not fact yet)
$400million for Kupe? Neither is that (think of its high cost..NZO share of costs potentially over $200m)
$180million for PRC? Yes, your getting it.

They will be sitting on a pile of cash though, your right.

I suggest you check out some brokerage reports and see how they do their discounted valuations. They dont make absurd assumptions, as the market as whole does not make absurd assumptions.

A reasonable valuation is around the $2.00 mark which most research reports show, and thats fully diluted.

Its ok to believe that oil price will increase, but just dont show it in your calculations to what you think the company is 'worth.'
Otherwise you could 'speculate' with every stock on the exchange in the same way. Try your valuation technique with most producing oilers and I'm sure you will want to buy most of them....

[tim23]

You dont have to be a tosser etc

Duncan - you sold your options long ago at 9c they went on to 30c so you weren't that clever were you? It very convenient to compare your 9c to todays price but then again thats always been your style - Harry Hindsight.

[fish]

Bilo...Don't bag Unicorn. His valuations are very factual, based off a set assumptions which he states. Conversely, yours appear to be biased and unjustified.

$400million for Tui? Thats not factual (not fact yet)
$400million for Kupe? Neither is that (think of its high cost..NZO share of costs potentially over $200m)
$180million for PRC? Yes, your getting it.

They will be sitting on a pile of cash though, your right.

I suggest you check out some brokerage reports and see how they do their discounted valuations. They dont make absurd assumptions, as the market as whole does not make absurd assumptions.

A reasonable valuation is around the $2.00 mark which most research reports show, and thats fully diluted.

Its ok to believe that oil price will increase, but just dont show it in your calculations to what you think the company is 'worth.'
Otherwise you could 'speculate' with every stock on the exchange in the same way. Try your valuation technique with most producing oilers and I'm sure you will want to buy most of them....

upside_umop
NZ brokers seem to have difficulty valuing nzo-It would be good if you could post a valuation that is current -ie takes account of prc doubling in value,tui producing 3 times that predicted and using a current oil price ,and the recent flow testing of kupe-which is obviously going to be much bigger than expected even 2 weeks ago .
Brokers discount for risk-Personally I see risk for nzo balanced by the insurance value of owning a diversified energy stock .
Look forward to analysing any valuation you post .
In the meantime I feel Bilo,s valuation is more reflective of todays value-and hopefully(probably) in a month it will be shown to be conservative when we have updated figures for tui and kupe-and maybe even momoho

[Unicorn]

Quote: -
Posted by Unicorn on 20-04-08 p206 #3082
http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?t=5112&page=206

He valued Tui 84 cps and cash 21 cps

Quote: -
Posted by Bilo on 07-05-08 p238 #3568
http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?t=5112&page=238

He valued Tui 400M, Cash and prospects 70M

***********

Unicorn and Bilo,

I have a small question on your both calcs on Tui’s value.

As we know that Tui has been produced about 30% (based on the latest 2P oil reserves 41.7M), those 30% production has become cash.

My question is: - Do we need to do a small adjustment on the calculations or you have done that?

Cheers
Bixbite

Yes, an adjustment is needed. It is not very significant, as less than a couple of months have elapsed.

I used a figure of $105 for oil, so any oil sold above that means cash increases by more than the amount the calculated Tui value declines by. I chose $105 because I think that the market should accept at least that much at present

Since my last calculation April, the PRC holding value has increased by 23c, the longer FSPO term and increased recoverable oil adds about 5c from memory, and the better than expected prices/production from Tui over the last couple of months about 3c. So the $1.85 should have increased to about $2.16 now - dilution drops that to $1.95.

But when the market is awash with options, and the company is on record as saying some of those options will be valueless, valuations become meaningless. It has been an incredibly negative month for NZO, especially when you consider the discount already factored in, the stellar performance of PRC, the amazing results from Tui, and the continuing high price of oil (especially in $NZ terms).

Having caused such a huge discount to the share price with the NZOODs, and given away about 10% of shareholder value through dilution, it must be hoped that the company has a very good plan for the money. I would expect to see a significant announcement during July/August.

[duncan macgregor]

You dont have to be a tosser etc

Duncan - you sold your options long ago at 9c they went on to 30c so you weren't that clever were you? It very convenient to compare your 9c to todays price but then again thats always been your style - Harry Hindsight. TIM still following me about snapping at my heels. Its not so clever to follow the price down giving it all back to the market the way you are doing it. Your $1-89 in the competition looks like you are not very smart in that dept either. Hindesight becomes the yardstick to know if you have anything up top or not. I would think the options now look as if they will only just be in the money my $1-59 is to high as well. Macdunk

[Sideshow Bob]

Is anyone else 'over' the options? So much talk, so much hype, I now just want to see what happens to the shareprice (after I've exercised my options of course!).

[tim23]

I actually picked $1.63 (that you allocated me) and then you found a duplicate of that selection (and deleted me without advising me) so I had to pick the next available number a few weeks latter.

[Mingeathinaikos]

Do NZO holders want the options converted??

I don't hold NZOOD anymore, and find myself in two minds as to whether I want to see the options converted (my pick in Dunc's comp of $1.50 would suit me)...
Thoughts from those only holding the heads....

[tim23]

Why would $1.50 suit you if you are a holder lots more would be better, whats the dam prize on offer anyway?!

[Mingeathinaikos]

Why would $1.50 suit you if you are a holder lots more would be better, whats the dam prize on offer anyway?!


Taking into account the dilution, for the heads to be at $1.50 and not all options being converted, may be better for holders of only the heads than having the price at $1.58 come option expiry.

Thats why I posted, after others thoughts.

[temuk]

You dont have to be a tosser Just incase you wondered what i did with my option 9c i doubled it twice plus got an 11% exchange rate gain on it where it now sits safely in the bank waiting to buy road kill. Macdunk

So, Your options cost you $0.00 and you sold them for $0.09

Can you enlighten me!

Just where was your biggest % gain???

[Bixbite]

Yes, an adjustment is needed. It is not very significant, as less than a couple of months have elapsed.

I used a figure of $105 for oil, so any oil sold above that means cash increases by more than the amount the calculated Tui value declines by. I chose $105 because I think that the market should accept at least that much at present

Since my last calculation April, the PRC holding value has increased by 23c, the longer FSPO term and increased recoverable oil adds about 5c from memory, and the better than expected prices/production from Tui over the last couple of months about 3c. So the $1.85 should have increased to about $2.16 now - dilution drops that to $1.95.

But when the market is awash with options, and the company is on record as saying some of those options will be valueless, valuations become meaningless. It has been an incredibly negative month for NZO, especially when you consider the discount already factored in, the stellar performance of PRC, the amazing results from Tui, and the continuing high price of oil (especially in $NZ terms).

Having caused such a huge discount to the share price with the NZOODs, and given away about 10% of shareholder value through dilution, it must be hoped that the company has a very good plan for the money. I would expect to see a significant announcement during July/August.


Just come back from the lapidary club and haven’t yet had my dinner.


A brief message to Unicorn – thank you for your response.

[Nitaa]

So, Your options cost you $0.00 and you sold them for $0.09

Can you enlighten me!

Just where was your biggest % gain???Thats not quite correct. Shareholders were given 1 for every 2 shares. The sp also adjusted accordingly so is was a simple rob peter to pay paul scenario.

I havent even looked at the trading today but have read the comments on this thread. What i am surprised at is how there seems to be some confusion about the lack of performance with nzo sp considering the announcments and what is happening with prc. If you have a good think about it this is what is facing nzo and option holders. The following are my assumption only but imo but is quite logical.

- if all option holders converted they would need to stump up $200m
-At least 95% (this is the crux of it) of option holders would have to sell part or all of their options from May 1st to the end of June.
-Selling pressure is huge and big investors know it.. some bigger fish are mopping up on the desperate sellers.

There are other factors and the ones who can hold on without selling will come out smelling very well by the end of July irrespective if momoho is a dud (which is unlikely imo).

The tidal current is extremely strong but fundamentals is holding by big players at the current sp. once conversion is over the brakes will be lifted and i expect the turbo to kick in like we havent seen b4 in nzo.

[Nitaa]

I have just had a look at some of the trading especially with prc. Here is a simple analogy to understand how much pressure there has been on the options and also on nzo heads since May 1st. Also the positve impact.

- nzo option reminder in the mail (waking people up to the reality that they need to stump up with cash or sell some assets, options or otherwise).
- FPSO chartr extension
- tui to be reassed again (upward)
- kupe testing is meeting expectations
- PRC increased 60 cps since May 1st, couple with very steady progress. I estimate its worth an extra 12 - 15 cps to nzo subject to how many options are converted.
- very good investor presentation.

Since the sp has gone nowhere in 5 weeks i trust that investors now understand the extent of the selling pressure.

I am willing to take 1 or 2 bets on the following.
nzo will be at least $1.70 by end of July
$2.00 by end of Sept.

Not sure if this is legal but any one wanting a friendly bet up to $100 on each bet then i am a taker.

discl. will convert my options irrespective of the sp come closing date.

[the machine]

if the ensco 107 rig has not relocated by now, then unlikely for quite a few more days, given weather forecast coming up from the south. extra care has to be taken to jack up the legs as located right next to the kupe platform

loosing that string during final drill of ks8 cost 2 weeks - can't wind backtheclock, just have to go with the flow.

M

[Oiler]

if the ensco 107 rig has not relocated by now, then unlikely for quite a few more days, given weather forecast coming up from the south. extra care has to be taken to jack up the legs as located right next to the kupe platform

loosing that string during final drill of ks8 cost 2 weeks - can't wind backtheclock, just have to go with the flow.

M

You are right Machine... it is blowing a gale here at the moment so the Ensco wont be going anywhere for a few days unless she slipped out under the cover of darkness last night :D

I will look out the "back window" in an hour or so to make sure.

Oiler

[Toulouse - Luzern]

Malcolm and Oiler are up early today.
Exciting last week.
Oil sets a new one day growth in price per barrel record -
DOW down 300+ points biggest fall since 5 Feb ...

Source
CNBC today...

[digger]

Why would $1.50 suit you if you are a holder lots more would be better, whats the dam prize on offer anyway?!

Tim about a month ago i offered a $100 bottle of wine to the winner that DM announces.The winner will have to email me and we will sort out the desired wine type.This was just to add a bit of spirit to the competition,or is the pun confusing and i should say wine.

[bermuda]

in 2001 oil was aprox US$38 PER BARREL nog on memory was averaging 45to 55cents i think-- if i told you then oil in 2008 OIL would be US$138 PER BARREL us$100 MORE wHAT would you of thought nogs SP WOULD BE???

Malcolm,
About 3 years ago I saw NZO going to $3 plus. But I got a bit ahead of myself.

Now the chickens are coming home to roost. NZO could go anywhere...after 30 June.

[Nitaa]

We have to be careful what we wish for. The volatity and spikes are very bad for the economy. I really hope that oil could settle in the low 100's. Most economies will be stuffed if commodities keep up this rate. What i happening last night is totally driven by speculators which are going to cripple most economies. Very bad imo

[bermuda]

We have to be careful what we wish for. The volatity and spikes are very bad for the economy. I really hope that oil could settle in the low 100's. Most economies will be stuffed if commodities keep up this rate. What i happening last night is totally driven by speculators which are going to cripple most economies. Very bad imo

Hj Nita,
Dont believe the speculator bs. You are getting sidetracked.

The reason oil goes higher is because it is a precious finite resource and the tankers in the atlantic are being 'rerouted' to the growing asian market.

The war talk doesnt help either.

I agree oil at $100 would be nice but we will need a real big deprression to get back there. So we have to learn to use less (to make up for the increasing asian demand and opec internal demand)

[blockhead]

It isn't helping with Israel talking out loud of bombing Irans nucleur installations either

[777]

Chris Laidlaw will be interviewing someone tomorrow morning, on the 8 to 12 program on 1YA, about peak oil.

Missed who it was I'm sorry.

[Nitaa]

Hj Nita,
Dont believe the speculator bs. You are getting sidetracked.

The reason oil goes higher is because it is a precious finite resource and the tankers in the atlantic are being 'rerouted' to the growing asian market.

The war talk doesnt help either.

I agree oil at $100 would be nice but we will need a real big deprression to get back there. So we have to learn to use less (to make up for the increasing asian demand and opec internal demand)Hi bermuda. The main point on what happened last night is that spucators are drivnig the volatility. supply and demand doesnt change this much in a week

im not sure if it was mentioned but here is a couple of things that have happened in the last few days.

Indonesia are now removed from opec as they are now a nett importer of oil.

In Malaysia earlier this week petrol prices rose nearly 40% in a single day. Think of how this impacts the local economy and ones own livelyhood.

[Xerof]

You won't believe the fuss over here about the price of oil and who's to blame - Congress have been cross examining CEO's of the big Oilers, threatening to sue OPEC :p:p and want to lower the daily limit from $20 to $10 for the futures markets.....Denis Gartman make a very incisive observation earlier this week on Fast Money (CNBC) when he said the hedge funds and "speculators" have been selling their long positions out since July last year.

I did think to myself at the time - so once they are done selling, where's the offer side going to come from?.....as despite this selling, we all know what the trend has been...... oh dear

The dynamics of the past 10 days trading in oil is fairly transparent - the market got short, (CNBC 'guru's - get short - this bubble is about to burst), the natural buyers said thanks very much, I'll take everything you've got, and really, all it's taken is for a geo-political announcement to cause a very nice Friday short squeeze on the shorts in the markets, and the dollar trashed again of course.


Natural demand won't go away team, get used to it

[Xerof]

your investment banks

Nah, not "mine" - I'm a home grown flightless bird currently out of my usual habitat

[digger]

Hi bermuda. The main point on what happened last night is that spucators are drivnig the volatility. supply and demand doesnt change this much in a week

im not sure if it was mentioned but here is a couple of things that have happened in the last few days.

Indonesia are now removed from opec as they are now a nett importer of oil.

In Malaysia earlier this week petrol prices rose nearly 40% in a single day. Think of how this impacts the local economy and ones own livelyhood.

Nita Malaysia,India and some other asian economices are slowly removing the hugh subsidies and this can hurt.I personally would never have subsidies as they give false hope and a distorted view of economic reality. Thank god we have elimitated most in NZ.
But did you realise when you are talking about the hugh overnight POO that war is up but the subsidy removal is down.Now if we could just get all the oil produces to remove subsidies the POO would go down. The yanks[or west] could also put in a sliding car engine tax that would also save a lot of petrol.

[Crypto Crude]

Saying that speculators are to blame for High oil prices is the same as saying The New Zealand media is responsible for The downturn in the housing market...
:cool:
.^sc

[tim23]

Good thought SC - the REINZ did try to blame the media for the housing downturn, pathetic!

[Nitaa]

Saying that speculators are to blame for High oil prices is the same as saying The New Zealand media is responsible for The downturn in the housing market...
:cool:
.^scSpeculators is only one factor. Many others to consider, supply v demand, political unrest yardi yar. Otherwise how do you justify oil jumping $11 in one day?

[Nitaa]

Nita Malaysia,India and some other asian economices are slowly removing the hugh subsidies and this can hurt.I personally would never have subsidies as they give false hope and a distorted view of economic reality. Thank god we have elimitated most in NZ.
But did you realise when you are talking about the hugh overnight POO that war is up but the subsidy removal is down.Now if we could just get all the oil produces to remove subsidies the POO would go down. The yanks[or west] could also put in a sliding car engine tax that would also save a lot of petrol.
I totally agree.

[Corporate]

So when most of these options get converted, what are NZO going to do with all the cash they have?

How about a takeover of PPP? MCAP is only $150m

[Corporate]

The depth on NZO is pretty amazing 174k buyers vs over a million heads for sale

[AMR]

They ought to have a go at CUE to grab Maari

[Rabbi]

They ought to have a go at CUE to grab Maari

Market capitilisation of Cue would be a bit high for NZO, but APX looking good now they have cleared their hedge and the price of oil is still rising.

Disc: Hold APX

[macduffy]

They ought to have a go at CUE to grab Maari


I doubt whether that would be practicable given that Todd Petroleum hold 25% and Singapore Petroleum 14%. CUE and SPC have a few interests in common and IMO it's more likely that there could be some action there. Meanwhile, anyone else who wanted CUE would have to pay a pretty good price to tempt the two big holders.
I don't see CUE's 5% interest in Maari as sufficiently tempting for NZO to do that.

[Crypto Crude]

These Todds are ruthless operators from what I've heard and from what I've been told... Todd's would probably do a reverse takeover if someone tried to take CUE away from them...
:cool:
.^sc

[temptation]

ODN and VPE would be a good buy.
ODN market cap only 8 million (AU), and they are the biggest shareholders of VPE.
VPE market cap 74 million (AU) - although the options are a complication.

[Nitaa]

I am anti buyouts for the sake of it or just because your company is awash of money. Any decision to buy has to be based the value its worth to the purchaser. Im not so sure if nzo have many suitable options.

My preference would be some farm-ins on what nzo see as suitable acreage for exploration.

[Corporate]

had three guys one from shell 2 othier guys from both sides of PEAK OIL VIEWS-- general consenus is oil may be over the hill and on downwid spiral far as RESERVES AND ABILITY TO PRODUCE TO KEEP PACE WITH WORLD DEMAND --- they believe thier is possible huge reserves out thier but even at $130US BARREL it would not encourage producers to hurry and get IT.. if a huge deep water oil discovery was found to day9 like --brazils-- it would take minimum 5 to 10 years to bring to production..... it,s wildly excepted the world is useing 4%per annum MORE THAN IS BEING DISCOVERED AND PRODUCED. ..if i was single and had no ties i would put every $$$$$$ into nzog---- DECLARE hold thousands of heads now , for many years-- but had --many more 15 to 3 years ago. -- don,t PANIC about TOMOROW MONDAYS share market down turn only temporary-- good buying opportunity may be heads under $1.50----:):):)

Do you know if these are recorded....I'd quite like to hear the discussion?

I'm 23, with no ties. I'm putting everything into NZO (except for my small holding in vpeo). Hoping NZO will make me.

How big of a drop do you think we will see on monday?

[Corporate]

was on 10 am to about 10.30.. should get info fron their web site:D:D:)


Hmmm couldn't seem to find it. Went here :- http://www.radionz.co.nz/audio

EDIT : well found it, it's just not up for downloading yet

[Tok3n]

Hmmm couldn't seem to find it. Went here :- http://www.radionz.co.nz/audio

EDIT : well found it, it's just not up for downloading yet

Is this it?

http://www.radionz.co.nz/national/programmes/sunday

Still not up for downloads :( (maybe due to copyright issues)

This is though:

http://www.radionz.co.nz/audio/national/sat/alan_hart__peak_oil

[airedale]

I thought that interview was a non-event. One guy waffled on about the definition of peak oil....in an academic fashion. They did not address the impact of increasing demand from China, India, etc.
Chris Laidlaw did not have enough nous to ask the hard, or even the obvious questions.
There is more information and debate on Sharetrader than there was on that programme.

[pietrade]

Kim Hill (Saturday Morning) also had a very good interview with a Kiwi geologist who seemed to know his stuff and gave some pretty daunting figures to digest. The fact that Chris Laidlaw also had an interview on the same Peak Oil subject, means the issue sure is getting some attention. Let's hope it resonates at the NZX next week.

[bermuda]

yes CHRIS laid laws interview was the one I HEARD airdale it was never to be a curent affair hard hitting interview it was more like a panel discussion it all came out and the result --OIL IS A DEMINISHING -FINITE-COMMODITY-:):):)

Malcolm, I know you wont mind if I correct you.

RESOURCE, not commodity.

The countdown to June 30th continues. Fascinating eh?

I know an Energy Guru in London managing a huge oil portfolio. He is absolutely long on oil.

I met him last October and he took me to his 'ranch' in Ibeza. Close to Richard Branston's mansion. Now that was an unbelievable experience that I wont go into.lol

When I first met him in London I didnt let on I knew much about oil. He took me into his trading room and after about half an hour I asked him if he had met Matt Simmons.

His reply was an all time classic.

" Yeah took him out for dinner last week. I rather think it affected his speech the next day!"

As I said this guy is long on oil and apparently wants to ring me 2moro to get into NZO before the options run out. Doubt if he will but if he does expect a few shares to be traded this week.

[digger]

Abu Dhabi is now looking to increase its oil production capacity and develop new gas fields, at the same time as maintaining output at its existing fields. In order to manage these resources in the most efficient way possible, and to potentially locate new deposits, the country will have to make use of more sophisticated versions of seismic survey, in which waves of sound are directed into the ground and measured to detect the presence of oil.

Now that is a new one. I remember being told by NZO geologist that the presence of oil could not be detected [YET] only a structure to hopefull contain it. This tech things is moving on.

[the machine]

weather window looking good for next 2 days to shift the ensco 107 jack up - if not already shifted on friday before the big blow.

so expect news from origin once momoho spudded and be interesting what they say -

benchmarked against
the origin presentation of 100 bcf dry gas compared to nzo more upbet at 200bcf equivelent [including liquids]

on cro00wn minerals site the example drill data is for kupe 4 or 5, forget which, have previously posted the link and makes very interesting reading

momoho is going to be huge and comes with the discounted tax in event of a discovery.
[or for the discovery may be a better choice of words]

nzo recent investor presentation shows continuity of the farewell sands from kupe 4 to kupe 5 and drilling momoho both sides of a fault covers all basis.

bring it on

M

[Oiler]

weather window looking good for next 2 days to shift the ensco 107 jack up - if not already shifted on friday before the big blow.

so expect news from origin once momoho spudded and be interesting what they say -

benchmarked against
the origin presentation of 100 bcf dry gas compared to nzo more upbet at 200bcf equivelent [including liquids]

on cro00wn minerals site the example drill data is for kupe 4 or 5, forget which, have previously posted the link and makes very interesting reading

momoho is going to be huge and comes with the discounted tax in event of a discovery.
[or for the discovery may be a better choice of words]

nzo recent investor presentation shows continuity of the farewell sands from kupe 4 to kupe 5 and drilling momoho both sides of a fault covers all basis.

bring it on

M

M

The ENSCO left the Pohokura site Saturday for Nelson? to do some repair/mods before the Maari drills.

ENSCO 107 looked like it was going to move last evening ( Sun) ...flat calm and with several boats around it so I would only expect to see the Well head platform sitting there this moring. ;)

Oiler

[777]

Hopefully that 40,700 that went through at 147.7, as an early trade, is not an indication of things to come today.

[Financially dependant]

M

The ENSCO left the Pohokura site Saturday for Nelson? to do some repair/mods before the Maari drills.

ENSCO 107 looked like it was going to move last evening ( Sun) ...flat calm and with several boats around it so I would only expect to see the Well head platform sitting there this moring. ;)

Oiler

Thanks Oiler, looks like it might be a good news week for NZO. Oil prices going up, a spud and an upgrade!

[the machine]

thanks oiler

you must have quite a view from your back window

M

[the machine]

out of top 6 gainers on nzx this morning, we have 4: nzo twins, ppp & prc.

oil and coal.

the options in particulaer are backin favour.

lets hope it keeps up all day / week

asx closed today so nzx is on it's own.

M

[Dr_Who]

thanks oiler

you must have quite a view from your back window

M

LOL.. I can see Oiler with a cup of coffee in one hand looking out the window and glancing over at the computer screen with NZO sp. :)

[digger]

The total number of shares will be approxiamately the same after 30th june as the number of options and shares are now-possibly slightly less.
There is selling pressure on the options as a lot of holders havnt the cash to convert-this drags down the price of heads . IMHO the head price will be over $2 by the end july.
Better to buy the options now-at 5 to 6 cents and convert on 30th june .
The options are more likekly to increase by 5 cents in the next week than decrease by 5 cents so this is the time to buy
About a week ago Fish posted this.Anyone following it would be looking at 100% on investment,maybe 200% by week end.
Actually fish what i was looking for was your posting about margin lending from ASB. Can you run that one past me again as i did not find it.There is a lot of talking on this site and whatever you have said is now many pages ago. Thanks.

[fish]

Digger,
With margin lending there is no need to sell options-far better to hold on and convert on 30th june as on this thread we all know there is a high probability nzo is going to go ballistic once the options are behind us .

Margin lending is described on the asb website .
It works like this - you transfer your shares to an asb nominee company as security -they then allow you to borrow a percentage of the value of those shares-with nzo its 50%-and charge you interest at 10.59 % pa on the outstanding balance of the loan
eg say you have 100000 head shares and 50000 options . Head shares trading at 160 cents and options 10cents
Transfer those head shares to asb nominees -your margin lending limit is 160 times 50% times 100000=$80000
use $75000 to convert options
If you borrow that money for 1 year total interest =$8000 approx
If the share doubles in value in 12 months you make approx $75000 minus 5000 mius 8000 plus any dividends
I havnt done this before but am currently arranging it because its too big an opportunity to miss -probably the financial opportunity of a lifetime .

[digger]

Digger,
With margin lending there is no need to sell options-far better to hold on and convert on 30th june as on this thread we all know there is a high probability nzo is going to go ballistic once the options are behind us .

Margin lending is described on the asb website .
It works like this - you transfer your shares to an asb nominee company as security -they then allow you to borrow a percentage of the value of those shares-with nzo its 50%-and charge you interest at 10.59 % pa on the outstanding balance of the loan
eg say you have 100000 head shares and 50000 options . Head shares trading at 160 cents and options 105
Transfer those head shares to asb nominees -your margin lending limit is 160 times 50% times 100000=$80000
use $75000 to convert options
If you borrow that money for 1 year total interest =$8000 approx
If the share doubles in value in 12 months you make approx $75000 minus 5000 mius 8000 plus any dividends
I havnt done this before but am currently arranging it because its too big an opportunity to miss -probably the financial opportunity of a lifetime .

Thank fish,will look into it as while i am streached building a house and with another i can not currently sell the opportunity with NZO is just tooooo good. Mark my word,NZO has changed and i can not see another opportunity in the next 5 years as good as this option conversion. The company now have the money so there is no longer a need to further dilute the company. It is now or never for the big boys.After this it is only the open market and any volumn there will see a rapid SP rise.

[BigBob]

As far as I can work out today is the first day that NZO has theoretically cracked the $1M mark... based on:

Tapis at 142, Exchange rate at 0.77, BBL per day 44000, Total $8,114,286

NZO share $1,014,286

Pop those corks...!!!

[bermuda]

BIG BOB i was hoping the USA SHARE market dabacle on friday --may shake our market MORE bugger it did,ent was hoping nzog would drop to $1.50 and i could dive in for more. maybe tonite the yanks may panic a bit more and--- dow drop anothier 400 points. bermuda ,fish. digger i hate your positive attitude.:):):):D ( bring on MACDUNK;;;:rolleyes::rolleyes:)

Hi Malcolm,
Just think of it this way. The NZO train leaves the station on June 27th and will be up to full speed shortly thereafter. Until then everyone has a beautiful window of opportunity to pick up FIRST CLASS TICKETS AT THROW AWAY PRICES.

The PRC train awaits first coal.

[Lion]

1,337,909 options have been exercised so far, that's close to 1% of them.

My guess is 80% will be exercised by month's end.

Step right up folks, last chance to get on this train.

[blockhead]

1,337,909 options have been exercised so far, that's close to 1% of them.

My guess is 80% will be exercised by month's end.

Step right up folks, last chance to get on this train.


And ACC own another 5.5% which will be exercised, so theres 6.5% exercised, plus Diggers shed full. Its a done deal !!

[bermuda]

1,337,909 options have been exercised so far, that's close to 1% of them.

My guess is 80% will be exercised by month's end.

Step right up folks, last chance to get on this train.


Lion,
Surely you dont think that 20% of the option holders are going to forget!!

This, imho, opinion is full house time......in fact I think NZO actually owes it to the shareholders who arent up with the play, to issue an explanatory note or to ask them to contact their broker. Perhaps they have done this.

Anyway, this is a FULL HOUSE. They all get taken up.

[tim23]

They sent out a note the other day and I guess if people bought them since they know about them anyway?

[Lion]

Lion,
Surely you dont think that 20% of the option holders are going to forget!!



Well, yes, 80% was largely a guess. The figure depends largely on what markets and oil price do over the next 3 weeks, and who knows about that? Friday in the US shows there just ain't no telling.

But even so, I would reckon there are a good 5 to 10 % of holders who won't have the $ handy and maybe think they didn't pay anything for them (rightly or wrongly) and won't bother to exercise even if sp is 165+ If it's around 155 that % could well increase.

But then the OCs were almost all exercised against expectations, weren't they?

I hope the % is high myself, and that some good use is found for the money. I still reckon taking most or all of PPP is a sound move.

I'm another one looking at ASB margin lending - don't want to let this opportunity pass me by.

Toot toot!

[777]

They sent out a note the other day and I guess if people bought them since they know about them anyway?

I heard that but I hold options with two different holder numbers and never got anything. Others may have missed out as well.

[blockhead]

there may be a small handfull of you out there who may SQUEEZE a argument to borrow but 97% of you guys look in the mirror take a deep BREATH and be satisfied with what you have---- 87-------was built around borrowed money world wide -- becarefull:(:(:(

Good advice Malc, Blocky has 122k od's but will only be converting 60k odd with cash and selling the rest. Blocky remembers 87 and so does Mrs B !!

[tim23]

DON,T BORROW--to buy shares!!!

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

there may be a small handfull of you out there who may SQUEEZE a argument to borrow but 97% of you guys look in the mirror take a deep BREATH and be satisfied with what you have---- 87-------was built around borrowed money world wide -- becarefull

Its nothing new, it was happening in this latest meltdown- Opes Prime etc

[777]

It still comes back to what you can afford to lose. If you don't think they are worth borrowing against then should you own them in the first place. To be borrowed 20-30% of the paid up value is quite acceptable if you know the risks.

And this from someone who lost heavily in '87.

[tim23]

Agree - you borow 100% of a house value these days (well recently) so 20-30% for shares seems ok to me too!

[digger]

Also you might like to think how well it would have turned out if you had margin traded PRC when at 90 cents.Even if you had to buy on market you could have easily topped up at 95 at that time.
Come 1 july NZO will be again closing the gap with PRC.As i once said a long time ago i do not know which company will win the race but there will be little in it. PRC has a big handy cape to overcome.That being that 1/3 of itself is owned by the other runner,so it means that for PRC to win 2/3 of itself must beat 1/3 of itself pluss NZO's other assets. A big call that is way come july the SP's will close again,and why converting the OD's is a good idea by whatever method you can. But DYOR

[Wilkins_Micawber]

"Total production up to 08 June 2008: 13.5 million barrels."
Previous figure was 13.3 million up to 4th June so she appears to still be producing at a good rate - looks like the upgrade might be significant ...:)

[the machine]

nzo had a good gain today[3c] and if the forward market for the dow delivers a good bounce from friday then nzo should add to their gain tomorrrow.

some positive news re momoho spudding would help as well.

nzo @ nz$1.70 by friday is very possible

M

[the machine]

Kupe Info

NZO
05/06/2008
MINE

REL: 0944 HRS New Zealand Oil and Gas Limited

MINE: NZO: Kupe Development Wells Drilling and Testing Summary

New Zealand Oil & Gas Ltd (NZOG) advises that the drilling and testing of the
three Kupe Development Wells in permit PML 38146 has been successfully
completed.

The three wells have been safely suspended pending the start-up of the Kupe
Gas Project by the middle of 2009.

Preliminary analysis of the well results, and in particular the well testing,
confirms that the wells and the reservoir have met expectations.

A composite summary of the well test results is as follows. Please note that
there is a change to the data previously released for Kupe South 6 (KS-6) as
not all correction factors had been applied to the condensate flow rate at
that time:

Key:
Well
Top Depth (m)
Bottom Depth (m)
Sustained Gas Rate(MMSCF/D)
Sustained Condensate Rate (STB/D)
Choke Size (1/64")
Surface Flowing pressure (psig)
Fluids Recovered
KS-8 3,513 3,575 33 3,840 64 2,100 Gas & Condensate
KS-6 3,014 3,106 41 5,130 56 3,030 Gas & Condensate
KS-7 3,188 3,280 42 6,393 56 3,051 Gas & Condensate
*Depths are MDRT (measured depth below rotary table).

Drilling of the three development wells began on 19 December 2007. All three
wells reached their target depths.

Well 22 inch 17 inch 12-1/4 inch 8-1/2 inch 6-1/8 inch
KS-6 560m 2,000m 2,895m 3,385m
KS-7 566m 2,000m 3,116m 3,454m
KS-7 ST1 3,503m
KS-8 568m 2,184m 3,429m 3,834m
*Depths are cumulative and show total well depth.

The ENSCO 107 drilling rig has now been secured for moving to the Momoho
exploration well location and will do so as soon as a weather window is
available. Momoho is approximately 6km southeast of the Kupe central field.

The Kupe Project is located within permit PML38146 in the offshore Taranaki
Basin, New Zealand, approximately 30km off the coast. The development
comprises production wells tied into an unmanned offshore platform, a 30 km
pipeline to shore, and an onshore processing station.

Participants in the Kupe Gas Project are:
Origin Energy Limited (through its subsidiary Origin
Energy Resources (Kupe) Limited)
50% (Operator)
Genesis Energy (through wholly owned subsidiaries)
31%
New Zealand Oil & Gas Limited (through wholly owned subsidiaries)
15%
Mitsui E&P Australia Pty Ltd
4%
End CA:00165635 For:NZO Type:MINE Time:2008-06-05:09:44:53


have not seen much comment about these flow tests - to me they are huge.

nzo can't say anything really until after june 30 view perception could influence the options, but, they must have a big ramping press release drafted, ready to release in early july.

any views?

M

[flyingmariner]

Fortune

Why the oil boom will eventually bust
Friday June 6, 10:21 am ET
By Shawn Tully, editor at large

High-flying tech stocks crashed. The roaring housing market crumbled. And oil, rest assured, will follow the same path down.

Not everyone agrees. In an echo of our most recent market frenzies, some experts pronounce that the "world has changed," and that the demand spikes, supply disruptions, and government bungling we face now will saddle us with a future of $4, $5 or even $10 a gallon gasoline.

But if you stick to basic economics, it's clear that the only question is when - not if - prices will succumb.

The oil bulls are correct in their explanations of why prices have jumped. It's indisputable that worldwide demand has surged, chiefly driven by strong growth in China, India and the Middle East. It's also true that most of the world's reserves are controlled by governments in places like Russia and Venezuela that mismanage production, thus curtailing supply growth.

But rather than forming a permanent new plateau for prices - as the bulls contend - those forces are causing a classically unstable market that's destined for a steep fall.

In a normal oil market, the cost of producing the last, most expensive barrel of oil needed to satisfy worldwide demand sets the price for every barrel the world over. Other auction commodity markets work much the same way.

So even if Saudi Arabia produces at $4 a barrel, if the final, multi-millionth barrel required to heat houses and run cars costs $50, and is produced, for argument's sake, at a flagging field in West Texas, the world price is $50. That's what economists call the equilibrium price: It's where the price that customers are willing to pay meets the production cost, including a cushion, naturally, for profit or "the cost of capital."

But today, the sudden surge in demand and the production bottlenecks have thrown the market radically out of balance.

Almost exactly the same thing happened in the housing market. And both housing and oil supply react to a surge in demand with a long lag. In housing, the lag is caused by restrictive zoning and development laws, especially in coastal markets like California and Florida.

So when the economy roared back in 2002 and 2003, builders couldn't turn out homes fast enough for buyers armed with those cheap mortgages. As a result, prices spiked. They no longer bore any relation to the actual cost of buying and improving land, or constructing and marketing a new house (at some reasonable profit margin). Instead, frenzied buyers were setting the price.

Because builders were reaping huge windfall profits, they rushed to buy and develop land. And sure enough, those new houses were ready just as buyers were retreating to the sidelines because they could no longer afford to buy a home. That vast overhang of unsold homes is what's driving down prices today.

The story is much the same with oil, with a twist. A big swath of the market isn't really paying that $125 a barrel number you hear about seemingly every hour. In China, India and the Middle East, governments are heavily subsidizing oil for their consumers and corporations, leading to rampant over-consumption - and driving up prices even more.

But sooner or later the world won't keep paying those prices: Eventually, the price must fall back to the cost of that last barrel to clear the market.

So what does that barrel cost today? According to Stephen Brown, an economist at the Dallas Federal Reserve, that final barrel costs just $50 to produce. And when the price is $125, the incentive to pour out more oil, like homebuilders' incentive to build more two years ago, is irresistible.

It takes a while to develop new supplies of oil, but the signs of a surge are already in place. Shale oil costing around $70 a barrel is now being produced in the Dakotas. Tar sands are attracting investment in Canada, also at around $70. New technology could soon minimize the pollution caused by producing oil from our super-plentiful supplies of coal.

"History suggests that when there's this much money to be made, new supplies do get developed," says Brown.

That's just the supply side of the equation. Demand should start to decline as well, albeit gradually.

"Historically, the oil market has under-anticipated the amount of conservation brought on by high prices," says Brown. Sales of big cars are collapsing; Americans are cutting down on driving. The airlines are scaling back flights.

We've learned another important lesson from the housing market: The longer prices stay stratospheric, the worse the eventual crash - simply because the higher the prices and bigger the profit margins, the bigger the incentive to over-produce.

It's even possible that, a few years hence, we could see a sustained period of plentiful oil supplies and low prices, meaning $50 or below.

A similar scenario occurred following the price explosion in the 1970s and early 1980s. The price spike caused the world to cut back sharply on oil consumption. By the mid-80s, oil prices had fallen from almost $40 to around $15. They remained extremely low for two decades.

It's impossible to predict how the adjustment this time will take shape, just as it was in housing. There the surge in supply came in places the experts swore there was "no supply," and wouldn't be any. Builders found a way to extend vast tracts of homes into California's Inland Empire and Central Valley, and even build "in-fill" projects near the densely-populated coasts.

An earlier bubble is also instructive. In the early 1980s silver prices jumped from $10 to $50 on the theory that the world was facing a permanent shortage of silver. Suddenly ads appeared asking homeowners to bring their tea sets and jewelry to Holiday Inns for a big price. Silver supplies poured from seemingly nowhere, out of America's cupboards, of all places.

And so it will be with oil. We don't know where the new abundance will come from, from shale, or tar sands or coal or an OPEC desperate to regain market share. We just know that it will appear. With prices like these, it always does.

[Nitaa]

Some very goods posts of late.

Re: do not borrow money to invest in shares. As a rule of thumb i agree. An exception is, if you borrow you MUST be prepared to lose it all.

Im still very bullish about oil. The worst thing is the volatility. This is causing increasingly nervousness amongst all spectrums in Asia at least. Oil hasnt had a correcytion for a while and the longer it goes without a correction the bigger it will be. Eventually the bottom will fall out of it but the bottom may still be $40 or more.

Margin lending on nzo. personally the risk is too high at the moment. 10% or more swings in thr sp will be nothing and i just think the risk is too great. One thing i dont like to do is to be told i have to sell. I prefer to do it on my own terms.

Inflation will go off the scale over the next 12 to 24 months compared the the last decade or 2.

Time to start thinking ahead more than ever

[Chippie]

Below is an extract from a small article in the Dominion this morning (top right corner of front page). This is not available online.

“Tui’s gas flare
Tui oilfield is flaring off enough gas to power Auckland …….AWE said it was trying to find ways to use the unexpectedly big quantities of gas…..in the mean time flaring would continue.”

[CAM]

Below is an extract from a small article in the Dominion this morning (top right corner of front page). This is not available online.

“Tui’s gas flare
Tui oilfield is flaring off enough gas to power Auckland …….AWE said it was trying to find ways to use the unexpectedly big quantities of gas…..in the mean time flaring would continue.”


Yes its available here...on the Taranaki Daily News site

http://www.stuff.co.nz/dailynews/4578214a6002.html

also had this quote.....

"To date Tui had produced 13.5 million barrels of oil in 315 days "without missing a beat"."

[JBmurc]

Some very goods posts of late.

Re: do not borrow money to invest in shares. As a rule of thumb i agree. An exception is, if you borrow you MUST be prepared to lose it all.

Im still very bullish about oil. The worst thing is the volatility. This is causing increasingly nervousness amongst all spectrums in Asia at least. Oil hasnt had a correcytion for a while and the longer it goes without a correction the bigger it will be. Eventually the bottom will fall out of it but the bottom may still be $40 or more.

Margin lending on nzo. personally the risk is too high at the moment. 10% or more swings in thr sp will be nothing and i just think the risk is too great. One thing i dont like to do is to be told i have to sell. I prefer to do it on my own terms.

Inflation will go off the scale over the next 12 to 24 months compared the the last decade or 2.

Time to start thinking ahead more than ever

-you really think OPEC would allow Oil to drop below $100 not a chance if demand slowed up so would production its liquid gold and they know it.

[Lion]

I like the sound of this from the STUFF article too -

"Energy Minister Harry Duynhoven, the MP for New Plymouth . . . . said that AWE had recently found they had far more oil and gas than expected."

Hmmm, 'far more oil than expected' - nice ring to it, like a cash register

[JBmurc]

I like the sound of this from the STUFF article too -

"Energy Minister Harry Duynhoven, the MP for New Plymouth . . . . said that AWE had recently found they had far more oil and gas than expected."

Hmmm, 'far more oil than expected' - nice ring to it, like a cash register

Yeah sounds great,once these opts out off the way NZO should cross the $2 fairly quickly
with a massive war chest of cash they can use to takeover a bargin jnr or farm-into some decent drills ethierway NZO holders won't be needed to raising $$$ for along time

[Nitaa]

-you really think OPEC would allow Oil to drop below $100 not a chance if demand slowed up so would production its liquid gold and they know it.If opec has so much control (their control is mainly limited to supply not price although the is a strong correlation) then why did they allow oil to be as low as $10 per barrel not very low ago.

Should the US start producing from the protected area in Alaska then that would change things as far as prices so as well.

OPEC is very strong make no mistake but OPEC were not the ones who drove the prices up from $100 to $136 in no time flat. OPEC were not the ones who pushed up oil to a record price of $11.00 in a single days trading.

[Hoop]

Love to be a fly on the wall at that meeting I bet Iran and Venezuela are hot topics + American marine military build up in the Gulf recently. Wonder what price they really think oil should be?
Jim Ritterbusch, president of the U.S.-based energy consultancy Ritterbusch and Associates quote.. (http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080609/ap_on_bi_ge/saudi_oil)
.."The Saudis are concerned that sustained high oil prices will eventually slacken the world's appetite for oil, affecting them in the long run.

Oil kingpin Saudi calls for talks with consumer countries (http://afp.google.com/article/ALeqM5h4SuqY6v9Qgc6mcLsWb5yAVD3ZVw)

7 hours ago

JEDDAH, Saudi Arabia (AFP) — Oil kingpin Saudi Arabia called on Monday for talks with consumer nations on soaring world prices and reiterated its readiness to meet any increase in demand.
The Saudi call was swiftly welcomed by the United States which has expressed mounting concern about the impact of high energy costs on the world economy.
At a meeting chaired by King Abdullah, the Saudi cabinet restated its view that the leap in prices that saw New York's benchmark contract hit a record 138.54 dollars on Friday was unjustified by fundamentals.
But it added that it had asked Oil Minister Ali al-Nuaimi to "convene a meeting soon of representatives of producer and consumer nations and firms operating in the production, export and trading of oil to discuss the jump in prices, its causes and how to deal with it objectively".
"Saudi Arabia ... has notified all oil companies with which it does business, as well as consumer nations, of its readiness to provide them with any additional quantities of oil they need," added the cabinet statement carried by the official SPA news agency.
The Saudi cabinet said it still believed that soaring prices "are not justified by the reality of the oil sector or market fundamentals".
"As a producer nation, Saudi Arabia knows that the oil market has an adequate supply of crude and mounting stocks to trade," the SPA report said.
"In coordination with OPEC member states and the leading producer countries, the kingdom is working to guarantee supplies to the market... and prevent any unjustified or abnormal increase in oil prices that might affect the world economy, particularly the economies of developing nations."
The world's leading oil exporter and the dominant producer in the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries cartel, Saudi Arabia announced last month that it would boost its output by 300,000 barrels per day to bring its production for June to 9.45 million bpd.
The close Western ally has come under huge US pressure to boost output to help end the volatility in world markets that saw New York's main oil futures contract, light sweet crude for July delivery, leap 10.75 dollars a barrel on Friday -- its biggest one-day jump ever.
US Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson swiftly welcomed the Saudi call for talks with energy-hungry consumer nations.
"It's got to be constructive. So I welcome it," Paulson said in an interview with the CNBC business television channel.
"I think that the solutions to the big problem are longer-term solutions in terms of investing in supply and alternative sources of energy," he said.
"There's no doubt that oil prices where they are is a problem. There's nothing welcome about it, it's a real headwind. We're focused on it."
During a visit to Riyadh in May, President George W. Bush called on the Saudi authorities for the second time in four months to put pressure on fellow OPEC producers to boost production.
Washington has repeatedly blamed OPEC's refusal to raise its output ceiling for the five-fold surge in world prices since 2003.
The cartel counters that the real reasons for market volatility are a shortage of refining capacity, speculation by traders and political tensions in the main producing regions.
Last week, Crown Prince Sultan bin Abdul Aziz said that even a producer of Saudi Arabia's importance to the world market could not set prices alone.
On his Middle East tour last month, Bush himself seemed to accept some of the burden of the Saudi argument.
"Our problem in America gets solved when we aggressively go for domestic exploration. Our problem in America gets solved if we expand our refining capacity, promote nuclear energy and continue our strategy for the advancing of alternative energies as well as conservation," he said.
"One interesting thing about American politics these days is those who are screaming the loudest for increased production from Saudi Arabia are the very same people who are fighting the fiercest against domestic exploration, against the development of nuclear power and against expanding refining capacity."

[JBmurc]

If opec has so much control (their control is mainly limited to supply not price although the is a strong correlation) then why did they allow oil to be as low as $10 per barrel not very low ago.

Should the US start producing from the protected area in Alaska then that would change things as far as prices so as well.

OPEC is very strong make no mistake but OPEC were not the ones who drove the prices up from $100 to $136 in no time flat. OPEC were not the ones who pushed up oil to a record price of $11.00 in a single days trading.

I didn't say OPEC were driving the current spikes and short term movements
what I'm saying is that the higher Oil goes without oil consumption dropping the happy OPEC and all energy producers are why massively increase production to drop prices to 50bbl say ,I remember not long back OPEC said they believed 50bbl oil was fair value next they said 70bbl was fair because costs in discovering & production were increasing alot
,Guess what 100bbl is now fair value in OPEC's eyes IMHO.......................
-If you think Oils going down 60+ your be very wrong --time will tell............

[Sehnsucht888]

have not seen much comment about these flow tests - to me they are huge.

nzo can't say anything really until after june 30 view perception could influence the options, but, they must have a big ramping press release drafted, ready to release in early july.

any views?

M

They have to release anything relevant to market in a timely manor though. Whether its positive or negative. Trying to get good news out earlier than later to help influence conversion wouldn't be a problem I don't think - its got to come out some time, and if the information could leak out another way and the market is not fully informed, then that would be a breach.

[rotweiller]

Hi OILER,
As I look out my window Ensco 57 is towering over Nelson and looks to be a hazard for planes landing in from the North.
She is due to sail July 28th for Maari. A most impressive sight.

Savannah - 28,500 tonnes is sunning itself in Tasman Bay and probably catching yonks of fish before sailing to Taranaki for condensate on June 16th. Presume without facts that this will be from Umuroa.

Cheers,
Rotweiller

[Nitaa]

I didn't say OPEC were driving the current spikes and short term movements
what I'm saying is that the higher Oil goes without oil consumption dropping the happy OPEC and all energy producers are why massively increase production to drop prices to 50bbl say ,I remember not long back OPEC said they believed 50bbl oil was fair value next they said 70bbl was fair because costs in discovering & production were increasing alot
,Guess what 100bbl is now fair value in OPEC's eyes IMHO.......................
-If you think Oils going down 60+ your be very wrong --time will tell............iaybe some ping pong here but a believe you are aiming all your issues in one corner and not looking at the whole picture.

opec ARE correct in saying exploration and production costs have increased. So what may be fair in 3 months time may be quite different to know.

Just like running a car at its most effiecient speed economically, producing oil is the same. It therefore is very logical for Tui operators or the opec nations to produce oil at an optimum rate. Can you blame them for doing this? There oil wont last forever so what happens to the opec nations in 100 years.

The point is OPEC, consumers, traders and politicians all play an important part in the equation. Blaming opec alone is wrong. Or at least that is where you are targeting the blame. Whilst China, India and the US are prepared to pay at these prices then we will continue to pay high prices. If we stopped using oil or take drastic measures by using different methods od transportation or using alternative fuels then the demand will go down and things will start correcting itself.

While we keep using plastic bags (china uses about 50mbo per year. ie alll of tui oil), buying anthing that is dependant on oil then we will continue to face problems like we are encountering.


Sooner rather than later something will give. What that is no one can say for certain except it is certain that it will happen.

[macduffy]

They have to release anything relevant to market in a timely manor though. Whether its positive or negative. Trying to get good news out earlier than later to help influence conversion wouldn't be a problem I don't think - its got to come out some time, and if the information could leak out another way and the market is not fully informed, then that would be a breach.

AWE are the operator ( with a 42.5% interest).
They have already announced that " the result of the reserves review is expected to be released to the market during the current quarter." - See AWE Quarterly Report, March 2008.

[Bixbite]

This article is worthwhile to have a read. (Sorry it is Chinese version. If you are not happy with, just skip it.)

http://udn.com/NEWS/FINANCE/FIN5/4376644.shtml

[richardseay]

as a somewhat inexperienced person when it comes optioons, i have several thousand options, i dont understand wheter i should exercise them , it is just a matter o f perception where the NZO price may go wheter i exercise this or is there more to it. I look forward to follwoing the threads now i have enrolled.

cheers

[macduffy]

Hi OILER,
As I look out my window Ensco 57 is towering over Nelson and looks to be a hazard for planes landing in from the North.
She is due to sail July 28th for Maari. A most impressive sight.

Savannah - 28,500 tonnes is sunning itself in Tasman Bay and probably catching yonks of fish before sailing to Taranaki for condensate on June 16th. Presume without facts that this will be from Umuroa.

Cheers,
Rotweiller

Hi rotweiller
It was originally reported that Ensco 107 was to drill these wells. Has there been a change of rig?

[temptation]

richardseay,
You should certainly exercise your options. The $1.50 it costs to exercise each of them will be your best spent money ever!

[rotweiller]

Hi macduffy,
Took the info from Oiler on Page 286 of this forum.
Slight error on my part as rig is Ensco 56 not 57.
Check Oilers out the window obs.

Cheers,
Rotweiller

[Corporate]

Well I'm not so happy. Got in to NZO at 160 today. And it closed down at 158 :-( not the greatest start.

On a positive note. VPEO went up

[upside_umop]

heres that article about the flare..

http://www.stuff.co.nz/dailynews/4578214a6002.html

[shasta]

If opec has so much control (their control is mainly limited to supply not price although the is a strong correlation) then why did they allow oil to be as low as $10 per barrel not very low ago.

Should the US start producing from the protected area in Alaska then that would change things as far as prices so as well.

OPEC is very strong make no mistake but OPEC were not the ones who drove the prices up from $100 to $136 in no time flat. OPEC were not the ones who pushed up oil to a record price of $11.00 in a single days trading.

Nita

Slightly off topic, but i did see recently on the news ol George W, make some sort of pledge to help out the Polar Bears environment by not allowing drilling in there critical areas, including Alaska.

Not 100% sure of what the pledge/deal encompasses but it was definitely a win for the environmentalists!

[Crypto Crude]

Opec is not a Cartel, this is because they currently have no spare capacity...
:cool:
.^sc

[tim23]

Re: do not borrow money to invest in shares. As a rule of thumb i agree. An exception is, if you borrow you MUST be prepared to lose it all. (from nita)


Applies to any shares whether owned on borrowed money or not doesn't it?

[Lion]

Here's a link to a report by Hamilton Hindin Greene on the NZO site. They've been slow to see the worth too, but better late than never. Target price $2.18

http://www.nzog.net/investorsSection/HamiltonHindinGreene%20NZOG%20Note%20June%202008.p df (http://www.nzog.net/investorsSection/HamiltonHindinGreene%20NZOG%20Note%20June%202008.p df)

[fish]

[QUOTE=tim23;205785]Re: do not borrow money to invest in shares. As a rule of thumb i agree. An exception is, if you borrow you MUST be prepared to lose it all. (from nita)


Applies to any shares whether owned on borrowed money or not doesn't it?[/QUOTE

People do a lot of stupid things in life often with little research . Inappropiate borrowing is common-be it on cars houses etc .
This does not apply to nzo which is the financial opportunity of a lifetime .
NZOG have been around a long time and are survivors with productive assets and no debts plus promising prospects-eg momoho plus a profitable shareholding in prc . An investment in nzog is more likely to be successful than any other investment I know of-be it managed funds ,kiwisaver,finance companies and even money in bank(take off inflation and taxes and the net interest on a bank deposit is around 2% ).
OIL and gas on tap is akin to money in the bank except the value will fluctuate for better or worse .
NZOG is exceptional and i have never borrowed to buy shares but i will borrow-margin lending-to convert them . I feel there is a 10% chance they will triple within 12 months ,a50% chance they will double within 12 months (increase in value by 160 c) and about a 10% chance they will decrease in value by 10 cents mean ).Hence I find it compelling to convert every option .
ASB make conversion of the options easy-I spoke to steve at asb margin lending today and all i have to do is transfer the options to asb nominees plus current head shares-tell them i want them converted on 30/6/08 and if you have 1/2 as many options as head shares you dont need to find any money .
Thinking I will get back into the market tomorrow and buy more options which are better value most days .

[Lion]

Oh, and then the Forbar report too. Can't seem to get the text or a link (although it's on HotCopper with odd punctuation)

"Their Research Note values NZOG at $2.15 "with more upside than downside risk to this number""

Yeah, better late than never.

P.S. Despite the cautious remarks posted here, I'm still quite happy with a bit of margin lending thru ASBSEC. But that's just me, I'm a bit short of $ to convert all my oppies, but I'm not going to go belly up if it all turns to custard. We each have to make our own assessment of risk vs reward. I'd advise anyone to be careful with margin lending, but also, don't write it off from a knee-jerk reaction about borrowing to buy shares. DYOR

[digger]

Anyone see the report about all the gas flaring off at TUI. Apparantly enough gas is being spilled to power Auckland. Anyways if anyone is still up and about this will ba on at 10-30 on nightline,tv3

[upside_umop]

heres that article about the flare..

http://www.stuff.co.nz/dailynews/4578214a6002.html

i quoted it here digger...might have got missed cos shasta posted over me really quick haha..

pretty interesting stuff...fancy the greens wanting to plug it?!

[Financially dependant]

Anyone see the report about all the gas flaring off at TUI. Apparantly enough gas is being spilled to power Auckland. Anyways if anyone is still up and about this will ba on at 10-30 on nightline,tv3

Yes I saw it, they lead the programme with it!

AWE said there is more gas then they expected;).

[Corporate]

Yes I saw it, they lead the programme with it!

AWE said there is more gas then they expected;).

lets hope that we see a decent increase in tui oil reserves :D

[arjay]

I saw the article on TV3 also. If it becomes an issue I wonder if they could run a line over to Maui and toll it in through their gas infrastructure? If there's enough to "run a small city" it might even be profitable.

Nice to see Russell Norman acknowledging the gas as a 'precious resource'.

[mattyroo]

Interesting couple of days at the AOGC here in KL the last few days.

At the CEO's panel, all the CEO's (Oil Majors and Analysts) stated that oil is currently overvalued by 2x - General concensus was that fundamental value of oil currently is $70 / barrel. However, with the current speculative interest in oil at the moment, Goldman Sachs EOY price target is $150, but they caveat this with "we expect it to hit $150 sooner rather than later" but are still holding their EOY target at $150.

As I expected, all the oil companies stated that reserves are still plentiful; 42 years of oil left and ~60 years of gas left - this is based on what is currently proven and at current recovery rates. Which may only be 20% of what is proven and recoverable in another 20 years time.

The main problem at the moment is that supply is too weak, but also at the moment demand is weak, imagine what might happen if demand were to strengthen.....

All you peak oilers can crawl back into your caves for another decade or two!

Interesting to hear some theories on biofuels vs. oil and what biofuels isn't doing to food prices - which goes against the common belief. This was put forward by an independent research house, not someone with a vested interest.

[mattyroo]

I saw the article on TV3 also. If it becomes an issue I wonder if they could run a line over to Maui and toll it in through their gas infrastructure? If there's enough to "run a small city" it might even be profitable.

Nice to see Russell Norman acknowledging the gas as a 'precious resource'.

Sounds a bit easier than reality....

Anyone know why they are really flaring this much gas? Is it really because they have so much more than they currently re-inject and use for gas lift? That is quite a significant amount, with that amount they will need to have the sea water pumps going up the flare as well, to keep the temperature down, which makes the flaring look a lot worse than it is.

But isn't that raging lunatic Fitzsimons just a class act:


"They should simply cap the well until infrastructure is put in place to capture the gas,"

Hopefully all her supporters are still whinging about everything and preparing to pack up and go to Australia.

[Nitaa]

Re: do not borrow money to invest in shares. As a rule of thumb i agree. An exception is, if you borrow you MUST be prepared to lose it all. (from nita)


Applies to any shares whether owned on borrowed money or not doesn't it?My wrong choice of word or how it was phrased. Yes you are correct. My point that i tried to say is that no matter how good a stock looks (nzo included) it can all turn pear shaped in no time. There are no certainties in stocks otherwise everyone would make money.

[Nitaa]

Here's a link to a report by Hamilton Hindin Greene on the NZO site. They've been slow to see the worth too, but better late than never. Target price $2.18

http://www.nzog.net/investorsSection/HamiltonHindinGreene%20NZOG%20Note%20June%202008.p dfSome good lobbying by nzo. HHG and the other Broker (sorry cant remember there name) both gave a valuation on nzo in the month that the options were due to expire.

[Oiler]

i quoted it here digger...might have got missed cos shasta posted over me really quick haha..

pretty interesting stuff...fancy the greens wanting to plug it?!

UU
Thats the sort of comment I would expect from the Greens....I suspect they dont have a clue as to why there is a flare. Plug it and the whole of Umuroa will be shut down. :eek:

A pipeline over to Maui, possibly but very expensive. Unfortunately (in this case) it is a by product of the well stream fluid separation process.

The oil industry looks great from my front and back windows :D Can only continue to get better.

Oiler

Oiler

[Sehnsucht888]

4 broker reports within 2 months suggesting a fair price of around $2.
Including 2 of the big full service brokers. Lets hope they have this one right.

[digger]

Some good lobbying by nzo. HHG and the other Broker (sorry cant remember there name) both gave a valuation on nzo in the month that the options were due to expire.

But lets also look at the anti-lobbying.This flaring has been going on for a while now but with two weeks to options arrangings needing to be finalised we have a hororable member of paraliment wanting to close it down.Part of me wonders if there is a Greymouth link here.Tui is a smashing success and for the jeolous types a negative has to be found.
In the long run it could end up a double positive for the joint ventures. If we pumped it back into the well it would keep the pressure up and when the oil is all gone[100 m barrels later] we end up with a gas field.It might well be worth thinking about.

[Financially dependant]

UU
Thats the sort of comment I would expect from the Greens....I suspect they dont have a clue as to why there is a flare. Plug it and the whole of Umuroa will be shut down. :eek:

A pipeline over to Maui, possibly but very expensive. Unfortunately (in this case) it is a by product of the well stream fluid separation process.

The oil industry looks great from my front and back windows :D Can only continue to get better.

Oiler

Oiler

I think this might be a situation were one of these clipped on the side of Umuroa?

http://www.synfuels.com/technologyUpdate.html

[Hoop]

But lets also look at the anti-lobbying.This flaring has been going on for a while now but with two weeks to options arrangings needing to be finalised we have a hororable member of paraliment wanting to close it down.Part of me wonders if there is a Greymouth link here.Tui is a smashing success and for the jeolous types a negative has to be found.
In the long run it could end up a double positive for the joint ventures. If we pumped it back into the well it would keep the pressure up and when the oil is all gone[100 m barrels later] we end up with a gas field.It might well be worth thinking about.

Digger we have similar thoughts..

Press having a go at NZO....lobby groups on board......hard to prove but it has all the behavioural signals of an influential entity or group wanting in on NZO at the lowest price possible...

the timing is right ....2 weeks before options convert ..oil market in a state of flux....rumour mill activated....negative press (re: environment) + one MP on board to add political uncertainty.

We may have to put with all sorts of skulduggery between now and the end of the month.

Hmmm......these signals.....might ask Tricia for my shares back ;););)

[the machine]

The oil industry looks great from my front and back windows Can only continue to get better.

Oiler


Oiler, hope the back window view is in relation to previous postings re ensco 107

M

[Hoop]

Hmmm......these signals.....might ask Tricia for my shares back ;););)

Not to be confused with TA signals which incidentally are showing no buy signals.
Will wait...

[mattyroo]

In the long run it could end up a double positive for the joint ventures. If we pumped it back into the well it would keep the pressure up and when the oil is all gone[100 m barrels later] we end up with a gas field.It might well be worth thinking about.

They can't pump it into the well!!! That is why they are flaring, because their re-injection and gas lift capacity is obviously at the maximum, they are flaring the excess. The only way to cut back on flared gas would be to throttle flow rates....

They would need further gas compressors to deal with this and possibly more flow lines to probably another gas well that would need to be drilled.....$$$$$$$


I think this might be a situation were one of these clipped on the side of Umuroa?

http://www.synfuels.com/technologyUpdate.html (http://www.synfuels.com/technologyUpdate.html)

Oh dear.....

[Dr_Who]

4 broker reports within 2 months suggesting a fair price of around $2.
Including 2 of the big full service brokers. Lets hope they have this one right.

I view brokers report abit like my dog's poo in the garden. Great for the plants, but consumption is not recommended. The only good analyst reports worth looking at are the ones from Aussie who specialise in oil and commodity stocks.

I recall all the brokers had a valuation of $1.30 on PRC knowing the coal price was settled at $300/400 per ton... LOL

[COLIN]

I view brokers report abit like my dog's poo in the garden. Great for the plants, but consumption is not recommended.

I recall all the brokers had a valuation of $1.30 on PRC knowing the coal price was settled at $300/400 per ton... LOL

They may well be right, given the trend of PRC today!!

[Sehnsucht888]

I view brokers report abit like my dog's poo in the garden. Great for the plants, but consumption is not recommended. The only good analyst reports worth looking at are the ones from Aussie who specialise in oil and commodity stocks.

I recall all the brokers had a valuation of $1.30 on PRC knowing the coal price was settled at $300/400 per ton... LOL

I also don't hold these in high regard and take them on face value. They are the only ones making money whether the shares are going up or down..
The fact that more of them are rating this positively should mean more positive exposure, and supports the self fulfilling prophecy to a degree.

There is so little negativity out there, just positive reviews, profit increases, pending reserves upgrade, speculative drills.
Just the options issue to get through.
Be interesting to see what occurs if the resevers upgrade is out before the 23rd. AWE said they expected it mid June... NZO were saying by the end of June.

[777]

From today's Independent.....

New Zealand Oil and Gas says analyst Forsyth Barr's prediction of an increase in Tui oil reserves are "purely speculative and are not sourced from NZOG". Spokesman Chris Roberts said "no figures are yet available as the field reassessment is still in progress."

[Sehnsucht888]

Yeah, they are speculative.

But there is the fact that AWE is reviewing the reserves, and the resones behind the review - AWE is continuting to review the TUI reserves because of the continued strong production performance of the reservoir, would suggest to some that an increase is expected, rather than a decrease.

[Sehnsucht888]

Even if there is no increase, if flow rates keep goping whilst the prices are going up over the short term, thats got to be good.
With the exchange rate dropping and US$250 now being suggested, thats lots of cash coming our way..

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/section/3/story.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=10515701&pnum=0

LONDON - The chief executive of the world's largest energy company has issued the most dire warning yet about the soaring the price of oil, predicting that it will hit US$250 ($332) per barrel in the foreseeable future.

The forecast from Alexey Miller, the head of the Kremlin-owned gas giant Gazprom, would herald even more expensive petrol and send shockwaves through the economy.

His comments were the most stark to be expressed by an industry executive and come just days after the oil price registered its largest-ever single-day spike, hitting US$139.12 per barrel last week amid fears that the world's faltering supply will be unable to keep up with demand.

{ More on the web }

[friedegg]

can anyone tell me the advatage of selling your head shares to convert options at the current prices

[Sideshow Bob]

can anyone tell me the advatage of selling your head shares to convert options at the current prices

Taking advantage of any difference in the options + exercise price versus head price. Putting money in the bank until the exercise date.

Maybe trying to a high risk strategy to trade the options for short-term profit......

[digger]

can anyone tell me the advatage of selling your head shares to convert options at the current prices

To enrich brokers

[the machine]

is the gas coming from the wells or is it being created through the seperation process

if coming from the wells, then would that not displace oil at the top , thus bringing oil down towards the actual drill, inturn a higher oil recovery rate?

M

[friedegg]

Taking advantage of any difference in the options + exercise price versus head price. Putting money in the bank until the exercise date.

Maybe trying to a high risk strategy to trade the options for short-term profit......
so you have 100 shares you sell for $1.59 = $159 and you convert 100 options for $150,so providing you pay no brokerage and the options were free its a poiuntless excercise,so please no more people waffling on about the price is being held down cause people are selling to convert thier options cause it makes no sense at all to me

[777]

It does if you don't have enough ready cash to pay for your options. The money has to come from somewhere if you are going to convert. Many sell the heads to achieve this so puts selling pressure on the heads which in turn reduces the option price.

[COLIN]

so you have 100 shares you sell for $1.59 = $159 and you convert 100 options for $150,so providing you pay no brokerage and the options were free its a poiuntless excercise,so please no more people waffling on about the price is being held down cause people are selling to convert thier options cause it makes no sense at all to me
But my friend you're completely ignoring the fact that the options DO have a current market value - irrespective of whether you got them "for free" or not.
And if e.g. I hold 100,000 shares (mkt price $1-59) and 100,000 options (mkt price 7c) I can sell the shares for $159,000, using $150,000 of the proceeds to exercise my options - total cost = $150,000 plus $7,000 worth of options which I can no longer then sell, i.e. total cost of $157,000. The brokerage on the sale of the head shares, particularly through a discount broker, would come to nowhere near the $2,000 profit you would make, and of course you would be able to earn some interest on your $159,000 until the options exercise cheque went through.
(Giving up $2,000+ profit mightn't be much to you, but it sure would matter to me! And in case you think that the size of holding in NZO shares/options that I have quoted in the example would be exceptional, I'm afraid you would be very wrong.)

[friedegg]

But my friend you're completely ignoring the fact that the options DO have a current market value - irrespective of whether you got them "for free" or not.
And if e.g. I hold 100,000 shares (mkt price $1-59) and 100,000 options (mkt price 7c) I can sell the shares for $159,000, using $150,000 of the proceeds to exercise my options - total cost = $150,000 plus $7,000 worth of options which I can no longer then sell, i.e. total cost of $157,000. The brokerage on the sale of the head shares, particularly through a discount broker, would come to nowhere near the $2,000 profit you would make, and of course you would be able to earn some interest on your $159,000 until the options exercise cheque went through.
(Giving up $2,000+ profit mightn't be much to you, but it sure would matter to me! And in case you think that the size of holding in NZO shares/options that I have quoted in the example would be exceptional, I'm afraid you would be very wrong.)
youve pretty much answered my question,only a raghand would go through the hassle of 2k profit when your dicing with 150k

[Bilo]

can anyone tell me the advatage of selling your head shares to convert options at the current prices

Not that easy to grasp. Sell one share for 158c buy one for 150c and use up your option worth 7c. At the same time diluting your new share by (150+158)/2= 154. This is probably the worst outcome for you.

You would be better off selling your option although brokerage may make this route a less than positive return. But note that by doing this your holding gets diluted.

Or as I suggested above, if you hold heads and options it is conceivably better at ~5cps just to forfeit the options if you don't have cash to convert. And not complicate life for yourself, and DS and TR giving them cash they haven't the foggiest idea what they are going to do with. If you hold on you may get a worthwhile price for your option but you may end up just binning it. And after June 30 your heads will appreciate a tiny bit more...

[COLIN]

youve pretty much answered my question,only a raghand would go through the hassle of 2k profit when your dicing with 150k

So I could be a raghand. Thank you very much.

[777]

And me too. Sold heads at 50,000 heads at 1.60 bought options at 5.1. Any profit is worth having.

Is raghand the same as braindead?

[Sehnsucht888]

And me too. Sold heads at 50,000 heads at 1.60 bought options at 5.1. Any profit is worth having.

Is raghand the same as braindead?

Ah, no.. Its a fair bit more offensive...

But only the braindead would think 2K in profit for 2 trades of brokerage, interest on that amoun for a couple weeks or a month and back to the same net position at the end isn't worth doing if it is available. 2K here, 2K there taking advantage of margins and being in the same stock position at the end is a simple way to make money..

[dsurf]

youve pretty much answered my question,only a raghand would go through the hassle of 2k profit when your dicing with 150k

Why don't you sell the options & keep your heads. If one trade is too much hassle why do you bother owning shares?

Options are worth money at 7c each - where I drink (cheap $3 pints), 1000 options are worth 13 pints after $30 brokerage.

10,000 options are worth 223 pints

Alternatively - transfer them to me - I will mail you a transfer form & donate $20 per 1000 options to the charity of your choice!

[Dr_Who]

I recall this time last year I bought PRC at the IPO price of $1.00. :)

My broker told me not to invest in PRC and I went against the advice. What a fantastic investment PRC has been. :)

[Hoop]

I must be a double raghand then. I sold the lot at 50% profit...no problem decisions to make.

watching the price fall back..... timing a re-entry:cool:

Fried Egg ...all investors have their own methods in making a $....so why the criticism?

[sideline]

NZO
12/06/2008
MINE

REL: 0934 HRS New Zealand Oil and Gas Limited

MINE: NZO: Momoho Exploration Well Disclosure Notice

New Zealand Oil & Gas Ltd (NZOG) advises that as of 2.00pm on 11th June, the
weather had abated and the drilling rig ENSCO 107 was mobilising to the
Momoho location. Over the past week the operator had been waiting for
suitable weather conditions to safely move the rig from the Kupe Platform.

Over the coming week, the rig is expected to jack-up on the Momoho location
and undertake the necessary preparations to start drilling (spudding).
Spudding of the well is anticipated for 15th June.

The well is expected to take approximately 51 days to drill and planned
section depths are as follows:
Section 36 inch 22 inch 17 inch 12-1/4 inch 8-1/2
inch
Depth 170.5m 550m 1,830m 2,855m 3,142.5m
*Depths are cumulative and show total well depth measured below the rotary
table (MDBRT).

Momoho is approximately 6km southeast of the Kupe central field.

ENDS.

[COLIN]

Mark it, in red, on your calendars. Monday will see the action start. It would be foolish to sell anything today or tomorrow.

[arjay]

(Giving up $2,000+ profit mightn't be much to you, but it sure would matter to me! And in case you think that the size of holding in NZO shares/options that I have quoted in the example would be exceptional, I'm afraid you would be very wrong.)

Good points Colin, except for this bit. Less than 3% holders have 100K or more shares so the profit margin would be smaller (and brokerage bite relatively greater) for most using your approach.

[the machine]

ensco 107 now mobilised on to momoho location is good news

M

[COLIN]

Good points Colin, except for this bit. Less than 3% holders have 100K or more shares so the profit margin would be smaller (and brokerage bite relatively greater) for most using your approach.
Fair enough, but those 3% held 63.37% of the total NZO shares on issue as at last Annual Report date.
What some of us have done, of course, is sell the head shares earlier on, before they weakened (I took 164 at one stage) thus improving the margin if you take the current options price as the additional "cost" of conversion. And I think you will find that the option price (+ 150) has been trailing the heads price for the past few weeks, thus limiting any downside risk. Of course, the options price could sail above 14 cents before 23 June but I doubt it.

[trackers]

Knew this month would be horrible for NZO, temporarily sold out last month seeking a lower re-entry. Back in now, with some profit taking on VPEO.asx (I expect they may be a little more downside, but you'd pay a big premium to now trying to get back in end of june, start of july I suspect)

[Drone]

To be honest this current "Weakness" in the price (or lack of action) is pretty annoying. There is just so much upside here.

-Pike

Should be making at least $150m npat in 2 years time, current market cap $500ish mil, there is only one way that is going.

Tui - all the noise suggest upgrade coming (well additional to the 47m 2p already announced). Hard to see why they would announce a review unless there was a very good chance of upgrade. And as we all know oil prices going ganghbusters. Tapis above $140USD now.

Kupe - I'm not an expert but flows looked good if I read that right earlier? As time goes on project is de-risked.

Momoho - bring it on, even a few mmbls would be big upside given the likely low development cost. Poss worth 40c per share from what I've seen (pre dilution)

Options - Yep the dilution will be EPS negative initially but this money if managed well will allow NZO to take things to the next level over the next decade. Not a bad problem to have, worst case they can just return it or buyback shares.

Next few months will be interesting...

Cheers
D

[trackers]

To be honest this current "Weakness" in the price (or lack of action) is pretty annoying. There is just so much upside here.

-Pike

Should be making at least $150m npat in 2 years time, current market cap $500ish mil, there is only one way that is going.

Tui - all the noise suggest upgrade coming (well additional to the 47m 2p already announced). Hard to see why they would announce a review unless there was a very good chance of upgrade. And as we all know oil prices going ganghbusters. Tapis above $140USD now.

Kupe - I'm not an expert but flows looked good if I read that right earlier? As time goes on project is de-risked.

Momoho - bring it on, even a few mmbls would be big upside given the likely low development cost. Poss worth 40c per share from what I've seen (pre dilution)

Options - Yep the dilution will be EPS negative initially but this money if managed well will allow NZO to take things to the next level over the next decade. Not a bad problem to have, worst case they can just return it or buyback shares.

Next few months will be interesting...

Cheers
D

This thing will soar as soon as the oppies are out of the way. In fact, in a perfect world AWE would delay its TUI reserves upgrade to 1 July lol, oh well. Beautiful medium-long term company to be holding, I've a 4-month (in my head) target of 1.90 on this

[Corporate]

To be honest this current "Weakness" in the price (or lack of action) is pretty annoying. There is just so much upside here.

-Pike

Should be making at least $150m npat in 2 years time, current market cap $500ish mil, there is only one way that is going.

Tui - all the noise suggest upgrade coming (well additional to the 47m 2p already announced). Hard to see why they would announce a review unless there was a very good chance of upgrade. And as we all know oil prices going ganghbusters. Tapis above $140USD now.

Kupe - I'm not an expert but flows looked good if I read that right earlier? As time goes on project is de-risked.

Momoho - bring it on, even a few mmbls would be big upside given the likely low development cost. Poss worth 40c per share from what I've seen (pre dilution)

Options - Yep the dilution will be EPS negative initially but this money if managed well will allow NZO to take things to the next level over the next decade. Not a bad problem to have, worst case they can just return it or buyback shares.

Next few months will be interesting...

Cheers
D

Really annoying. I had said to myself that i wouldn't buy in until after 30 June. However, got itchy fingers and got in at 1.60. Not ideal to be showing a loss already

[fish]

Really annoying. I had said to myself that i wouldn't buy in until after 30 June. However, got itchy fingers and got in at 1.60. Not ideal to be showing a loss already
Warren buffet would be happy with your buy and would be buying more . You have not made a loss-that only happens if you sell now . Wait until the quarterly report in july-this will probably far exceed brokers expectations and result in a further step up in valuation .

tapis is us $1.40 us/kiwi is falling-now 75.3
=$186
Tui is producing 45000 barrels a day
nzo share is 12.5% =5625 barrels a day
5625*186=$1,045,817
So gross income from tui has been over $1million -or close to it for much of this quarter.

nzog will take off very soon -not tomorrow- but sometime in the next few weeks you will realise how lucky and how cheaply you got in .
In the meantime I share your frustration -I have made a big paper loss on buying more options but i refuse to focus on it as i know after conversion it will be a different story

[Corporate]

Warren buffet would be happy with your buy and would be buying more . You have not made a loss-that only happens if you sell now . Wait until the quarterly report in july-this will probably far exceed brokers expectations and result in a further step up in valuation .

tapis is us $1.40 us/kiwi is falling-now 75.3
=$186
Tui is producing 45000 barrels a day
nzo share is 12.5% =5625 barrels a day
5625*186=$1,045,817
So gross income from tui has been over $1million -or close to it for much of this quarter.

nzog will take off very soon -not tomorrow- but sometime in the next few weeks you will realise how lucky and how cheaply you got in .
In the meantime I share your frustration -I have made a big paper loss on buying more options but i refuse to focus on it as i know after conversion it will be a different story

Thanks for the reassurance. I am currently about 10% VPEO, 40% NZO and 50% cash. I am contemplating topping up a few more NZO if it drops further. To good to be true almost

I really hope that NZO SP does start performing

[Nitaa]

Thanks for the reassurance. I am currently about 10% VPEO, 40% NZO and 50% cash. I am contemplating topping up a few more NZO if it drops further. To good to be true almost

I really hope that NZO SP does start performingNo need to hope. It is a very good bet that sp appreciation will happen especially after conversion. 1 should not forget the possibility of exciting news prior over the next 2 weeks that may break some of the strong resistance by the ones who have to sell.

reminds me.., i better start preparing the cheque. personally i prefer that no one converts except me

[Rabbi]

Alas, the spirit of Tony Radford stills lingers on.:(:(:(:(:(:(:(:(:(:(:(

[LIO]

After June 30, can the company offer options that have not been exercised, to other parties, or institutions ? Anybody remember what happened three years ago ?

[shasta]

After June 30, can the company offer options that have not been exercised, to other parties, or institutions ? Anybody remember what happened three years ago ?

A very high %age converted, though the conversion notices did carry on for a while after.

Don't be surprised if "someone" shows up to underwrite them.

Wonder where AWE fits in all of this?

[bermuda]

New this month would be horrible for NZO, temporarily sold out last month seeking a lower re-entry. Back in now, with some profit taking on VPEO.asx (I expect they may be a little more downside, but you'd pay a big premium to now trying to get back in end of june, start of july I suspect)

Trackers Mate,
Just load up with as many VPEO as you can. Dont be silly and start profit taking. Sit back and relax. Why have the angst of sharetrading in your life.

The way to make money is to pick a maximum of 5 stocks and if your research leads you to believe you have a better one,...then sell your worst performer.

But, as you know, you have to really, really research your top five.

I reckon I should patent that! It is absolutely true. And I have never seen it written before. Try it. Put the effort in. It works .

[shasta]

Trackers Mate,
Just load up with as many VPEO as you can. Dont be silly and start profit taking. Sit back and relax. Why have the angst of sharetrading in your life.

The way to make money is to pick a maximum of 5 stocks and if your research leads you to believe you have a better one,...then sell your worst performer.

But, as you know, you have to really, really research your top five.

I reckon I should patent that! It is absolutely true. And I have never seen it written before. Try it. Put the effort in. It works .

In hindsight i should have never sold my NZO shares, i held for a couple of years & sold at the wrong time.

I did however have too many shares at that time, & decided to hone in on just a few.

I too now run a 5 share max portfolio (currently just 4)...

Maybe buying some cheap NZO before 30 June could be the 5th?

After the expiry of the options i expect NZO to keep travelling north

[Snow Leopard]

Converted all the Tiger NZOOD to NZO recently, thought I would beat the rush and allow time to resolve any errors that NZO and it's share registry would make in the process [for some reason they have not got much right recently by me]. Surprisingly it all went smooth as.

I am betting that the true value of NZO is the other side of $2 and we will see progress to that mark next month.

Till then ;)

[blockhead]

Blocky all set for the run home now, sold all heads a while back @ $1.59 will convert 60k OD's before end of June and have a spare 60k OD's or so as insurance in case of a reserves update or any other good fortune driving the price up.

[trackers]

Trackers Mate,
Just load up with as many VPEO as you can. Dont be silly and start profit taking. Sit back and relax. Why have the angst of sharetrading in your life.

The way to make money is to pick a maximum of 5 stocks and if your research leads you to believe you have a better one,...then sell your worst performer.

But, as you know, you have to really, really research your top five.

I reckon I should patent that! It is absolutely true. And I have never seen it written before. Try it. Put the effort in. It works .

Yeah its a tricky one Bermuda, unfortunately I only really have the funds (due to cashing out for property) for one big play, or two smaller plays (we talked about this at the convention iirc!!).... Which is incredibly agitating as there's at least 6-7 companies I'd love to be in right now.

So I have to continually do a weigh up.... NZO at just over 150 (well, bought on asx so 125) is a better bet than VPEO @ 13.5 I think (still holding some VPEO, and would like an entry into VPE at some stage)

[Mr Tommy]

With oil back up to $137 today, and petrol prices going up 12c this week, everyone seems to be blaming the oil companies.

But the NZD has now dropped a full 4c against the USD in the last 3 weeks.
All very good for NZOG bringing back USD.

Check the second graph down:

http://www.nationalbank.co.nz/economics/exchange/nzdusd.aspx

[Casa del Energia]

While it's all quiet on the NZO front - -time to reflect on some of the investment rules I'm breaking by being overweight NZO

1. Don't get involved in 'goldrushes'
2. Never deliberately overweight your portfolio
3. Don't speculate on rapid capital gain
4. Don't time getting into investments that are subject to wild swings in a volitile time.

and

5. Don't set out to beat the market.

I am super guilty of all of the above sins.

[Sehnsucht888]

NZO
13/06/2008
MINE

REL: 1333 HRS New Zealand Oil and Gas Limited

MINE: NZO: Kupe Gas Project offshore work completed

Origin Energy Limited ABN 30 000 051 696 -Level 45 Australia Square, 264-278
George Street, Sydney NSW 2000
GPO Box 5376, Sydney NSW 2001 - Telephone (02) 8345 5000 - Facsimile (02)
9252 1566 - www.originenergy.com.au

ASX Release

13 June 2008

Kupe Gas Project offshore work completed

Origin Energy Resources (Kupe) Limited, on behalf of the Kupe Joint Venture,
is pleased to announce the achievement of a major milestone in the Kupe Gas
Project - the completion
of offshore facilities.

The offshore well head platform, three production wells and pipeline to
shore, which are half the cost of the entire project, are now ready for
production and await completion of
the onshore production station next year before starting to flow gas and
associated hydrocarbon liquids from the Kupe field.

Kupe Project Director Peter Ashford commented:

"Three development wells are now connected to the platform and from mid 2009,
once the onshore works are completed, will supply 15% of New Zealand's
projected gas demand, 50% of the LPG demand and 14.7 million barrels of
condensate over the projected life of the field".

"All of these wells have all been production tested and high flow rates of
gas and condensate have been demonstrated from each as expected".

"Completion of this part of the project is a credit to the project team,
which includes development partners Technip, drilling management advisors
Australian Drilling Associates
and Ensco Drilling, as well as the local workforce and the wider community.
We are delighted with the way that everyone has worked together to make this
possible".

"It is also in large part due to the co-operation that we have received from
many New Zealand companies and agencies, particularly in New Plymouth and in
Picton".
The Kupe Gas Project received Government approval in June 2006 and the
offshore programme of work includes:

- The fabrication and installation of a normally unmanned well head platform
30km offshore from South Taranaki;

- The drilling and testing of 3 wells on the well head platform;

- The fabrication and installation of a 12 inch pipeline to carry the well
fluids from the wells to the production station situated on the cliff tops
near Hawera;

- The fabrication and installation of an umbilical to carry power, controls
and chemicals from the production station to the wellhead platform; and

- The drilling of two world record length tunnels under the South Taranaki
cliffs to carry the pipeline and umbilical.

The Kupe Gas Project will now focus on completing the onshore facilities and
the production station in particular, to the agreed schedule and budget.

Importantly, the project has to date been free from significant injuries and
environmental incidents.

2/2

Completion of the offshore components of the project means the Ensco 107
drilling rig has been released from the Kupe location. This rig is currently
moving to a nearby location to drill the Momoho exploration well for the
Joint Venture.

Participants in the Kupe Gas Project are:
Origin Energy Resources (Kupe) Limited* (Operator) 50%
Wholly owned subsidiaries of Genesis Energy 31%
New Zealand Oil & Gas Limited (through its subsidiaries:
National Petroleum Ltd. 12.75%, Petroleum Equities Ltd. 1.25%
and Nephrite Enterprises Ltd. 1.00%) 15%
Mitsui E&P Australia Pty Ltd 4%

a wholly owned subsidiary of Origin Energy Limited

For further information please contact:
Media - New Zealand:
Rory Newsam
Tel: +64 460 2386
Mobile: +64 27 295 3809

Investors:
Angus Guthrie, Manager Investor Relations
Origin Energy
Tel: +61 2 8345 5558
Mobile: +61 417 864 255
Email: angus.guthrie@originenergy.com.au

The Ensco 107 jack-up drilling rig pictured during drilling operations at the
Kupe offshore platform.
End CA:00166007 For:NZO Type:MINE Time:2008-06-13:13:33:34

[Sehnsucht888]

Roll on the good publicity..

[Sehnsucht888]

And this...


BEST AND WORST

Now that it is in the NZX-50, Pike River Coal tops the league table of best performers for the year to date on that index. It has returns to date of 75.26 per cent.

It is followed by NZ Oil & Gas with a 35 per cent return. Probably also related to the global commodity boom is the strong showing of PGG Wrightson and its sister company NZ Farming Systems Uruguay at third and fourth respectively with returns of 22.17 per cent and 16.67 per cent.

At the other end of the table is Air New Zealand, down 41 per cent, and Fletcher Building, down 39 per cent.


http://www.nzherald.co.nz/section/3/story.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=10516024&pnum=0

[zorba]

While it's all quiet on the NZO front - -time to reflect on some of the investment rules I'm breaking by being overweight NZO

1. Don't get involved in 'goldrushes'
2. Never deliberately overweight your portfolio
3. Don't speculate on rapid capital gain
4. Don't time getting into investments that are subject to wild swings in a volitile time.

and

5. Don't set out to beat the market.

I am super guilty of all of the above sins.


Hi Casa,

Welcome to the board.

Interesting post above -- good to be reminded of sensible investing priorities, though with the prospects for NZOG and PRC, and now some of the Aussies coal seam gas plays, its difficult to be sensible . . . .

And compared to the so called "blue chip" kiwi companies, NZOG and PRC shares have produced spectacular returns.

This time last year I was wined and dined by IRG, the local boutique investment fund speciallising in NZ stocks. Thank goodness I stayed with my energy and coking coal investments. IRG was very keen that I move out of energy and into local "high growth" companies, of which they apparently had "really good knowledge".

I spent about half the dinner explaining to the young investment adviser the background to the global energy situation, but at the end of it I dont think he had the faintest clue . . . .

Cheers,

Z

[Casa del Energia]

Cheers Zorba,

Thanks for the welcome - most kind. Always a difficult life being a newbie anywhere.
Yes - my life story sounds much the same - all the financial whizkids telling me the things 'you should be doing'.
But after living through three or four bear markets - one learns to take everything
with the appropriate amount of salt and it is inevitable that we'll get it really wrong every so often.
e.g. I bought AIR NZ on 10 Sept 2001 (!).

But sometimes it all comes together - and I genuinely reckon NZO will have some real legs on it.

[trackers]

While it's all quiet on the NZO front - -time to reflect on some of the investment rules I'm breaking by being overweight NZO

1. Don't get involved in 'goldrushes'
2. Never deliberately overweight your portfolio
3. Don't speculate on rapid capital gain
4. Don't time getting into investments that are subject to wild swings in a volitile time.

and

5. Don't set out to beat the market.

I am super guilty of all of the above sins.

Not sure that 1, and 4 represent NZO at all! Goldrush would be more relevant in the hunt for uranium or CSG or alternative fuels imo....This is becoming a solid oil-producer, big difference imo

[Nitaa]

Not sure that 1, and 4 represent NZO at all! Goldrush would be more relevant in the hunt for uranium or CSG or alternative fuels imo....This is becoming a solid oil-producer, big difference imoI personally think it does. Even Opec think the value is double of what it should be. Flip side experts think oil will reach $200 plus by years end. This simply means that oil is going through a very volatile period. Much to gain and much to lose. The biggest problem we all face is convincing ourselves that the price can only go upwards. The physcologicial aspect is one of our biggest weakn esses as a human being.

Judge nzo on what it is doing and what its likely to do and not focus too much on the fact that nzo has gone from 25 cps 5 or 6 years ago to over $1.50 or 50 % increase this year alone.

I seen it all happen during the 80's where people make lots of monety and the Jones nxt door dont want to miss out and jump in with no idea on what they are doing. Its a recipe for disaster.

2010 is my prediction for a colapse in comodity prices and finite resources (that last part was for Bermuda). What actually happens in 2, 5 years time we dont know..

[J R Ewing]

I reckon anyone holding these options without the funds to convert them is going to feel pretty sick in a few weeks time. I for one am surprised how well the price has held up so far and I can't see it much above $1.50 for the rest of the month. I reckon NZO will be at $1.52 on 23rd June (when options trading ceases) and $2.02 on 31st July.

[tim23]

They can still sell them and get a few cents each, better than nothing?!

[zac]

With all the discussion about the oil price it is worth considering that $150+ per barrell may be its real value. For whatever reason we have been lulled into a false sense of security by paying far too little for a precious resource for too long. (Probabably because of American politics). It is unbelievable that for some time petrol has been cheaper than Coke (or bottled water for that matter). The ultimate test in the market is demand and in spite of Comrade Helen's protestations demand has dropped very little in NZ as the price rises. An investment in NZO is an excellent hedge against paying higher prices for gassing up.

[KiwiBear]

The ultimate test in the market is demand and in spite of Comrade Helen's protestations demand has dropped very little in NZ as the price rises.

Was coming home in the early hours of the morning listening to Blackie. His observation was that the weekend traffic has decreased some-what and the bus patronage is well up, even according to the Chch press. All this before the latest 2 price rise's in 2 days!!!

As a double income salary earner with a moderate mortgage, we have recently cut our weekend jaunts to the country - Hamner, Akaroa a days ski-ng etc. Staying local within 10k. As for the RV that will only be used for our holidays in summer and Easter with money coming from our holiday savings acct.
As for dreams of a big retirement boat- POOF bubble has popped, guess the double sea-kayak and mountain bikes powered by beer and wine is just the ticket! ( Check out trademe and all the big fizz and gin palace boats up for sale)

All of my work mates have downsized their everyday transport to scooters - small diesel cars. They have put away their Toys & SUV's for hols only.

Still think oil at moment is a bubble ride watch out for the crash!!!
The Bear

[Rabbi]

You have to remember that NZO traded as high as $1.30 in February 2005. At that time the market was factoring in future projects such as Tui, Kupe and Pike, and after that the price drifted back to under a dollar, essentially on market boredom waiting for the projects to come to fruition. I am no analyst, but my take is that, as these projects have all been succcesfully brought to fruition NZO has to be very undervalued at this time.

[Casa del Energia]

Not sure that 1, and 4 represent NZO at all! Goldrush would be more relevant in the hunt for uranium or CSG or alternative fuels imo....This is becoming a solid oil-producer, big difference imo

Debate on points 1 & 4 appreciated. And NZO may well be viewed as being outside that ambit because
a quick session with the pockect calculator does show NZO is definitely not a paper tiger. However.. Nitas'
assessment also holds water. Standing back from the feeding frenzy, looking at the trees - it does have a tinge of
that pre '87 flavour.

(Also - remember Hector)

[trackers]

Was coming home in the early hours of the morning listening to Blackie. His observation was that the weekend traffic has decreased some-what and the bus patronage is well up, even according to the Chch press. All this before the latest 2 price rise's in 2 days!!!


I've noticed an absolute reduction in traffic on the roads too and from work this week in chc, its bizarre!... Maybe this high oil price does have some good affects (decrease congestion, better for the environment etc)

[AMR]

How much are bus services in christchurch? Here in Auckland they've instituted a $21 weekly pass for students for unlimited travel.

[digger]

Kupe offshore works wrapped up

By Upstream staff


The offshore facilities for the Kupe gas project have been sewn up and are now waiting for the completion of the onshore production station next year before starting to flow gas and associated hydrocarbon liquids from the Kupe field.

“Three development wells are now connected to the platform and from mid 2009, once the onshore works are completed, will supply 15% of New Zealand’s projected gas demand, 50% of the LPG demand and 14.7 million barrels of condensate over the projected life of the field,” said Kupe project director Peter Ashford.

He added “ completion of this part of the project is a credit to the project team, which includes development partners Technip, drilling management advisors Australian Drilling Associates and Ensco Drilling, as well as the local workforce and the wider community.”

The Kupe project lies on the PLM 38146 permit about 30 kilometres off the west coast of New Zealand’s South Island. Output from three subsea wellheads is expected by mid-2009 via an unmanned platform and a pipeline link to onshore facilities.

Origin operates the project with a 50% stake, with the remaining stakes held by Genesis Energy (31%) and NZOG (15%), and by Japan’s Mitsui E&P (4%).

This piece come from upstreamonline.com. Anyone care to inform them that in NZ we all seem to think KUPE is off the west coast of the north island. These comments are for international media so should be corrected. This is about the third time KUPE has been placed in the south island by upstream.

[sideline]

Kupe offshore works wrapped up

By Upstream staff
.................
This piece come from upstreamonline.com. Anyone care to inform them that in NZ we all seem to think KUPE is off the west coast of the north island. These comments are for international media so should be corrected. This is about the third time KUPE has been placed in the south island by upstream.

Well, from their perspective it probably all looks SOUTH islandish.........

[Nitaa]

I've noticed an absolute reduction in traffic on the roads too and from work this week in chc, its bizarre!... Maybe this high oil price does have some good affects (decrease congestion, better for the environment etc)I guess this is the way the world keeps correcting itself. High oil prices tells companies to look for alternative energy and tells consumers to change their habbits, cars etc. eg, the next car i buy i will place a higher emphasis on a gasoline user friendly vehicle. maybe downsize further and start walking more.

[tim23]

Its a good thing really isn;t it? I still don't see people driving amy slower, doing 100k on open road you still get passed so people don;t seem too concerned yet but perhaps a tipping point is near?

[Sideshow Bob]

While it's all quiet on the NZO front - -time to reflect on some of the investment rules I'm breaking by being overweight NZO

1. Don't get involved in 'goldrushes'
2. Never deliberately overweight your portfolio
3. Don't speculate on rapid capital gain
4. Don't time getting into investments that are subject to wild swings in a volitile time.

and

5. Don't set out to beat the market.

I am super guilty of all of the above sins.

1. Possibly
2. Guilty
3. Opportunity is there. Historically NZO holding hasn't been for the divvies
4. But it makes it more fun/interesting
5. Why not??

Super Guilty as well.

Time will tell, and let it roll.........

[temptation]

Well I'm bl**dy sure Warren Buffet didn't get where he is by not trying to beat the market!

[manxman]

While it's all quiet on the NZO front - -time to reflect on some of the investment rules I'm breaking by being overweight NZO

1. Don't get involved in 'goldrushes'
2. Never deliberately overweight your portfolio
3. Don't speculate on rapid capital gain
4. Don't time getting into investments that are subject to wild swings in a volitile time.

and

5. Don't set out to beat the market.

I am super guilty of all of the above sins.

You've been reading Mary Holm too much. No 5 is straight out of her thinking. Everyone on this thread intends to beat the market.

And with No 2, before you are overweight in oilers, you have to take into account that your share of their oil reserves should be equal to your lifetime consumption of oil products, your suppliers consumption of oil products, and your share of the government's consumption of oil products. That much is hedging. At that level you should be (technically) indifferent to the price of oil. The next parcel you get, above that level, is your first investment. Only after that can you consider being "overweight".

My house is insured. It was insured before I looked at the sharemarket. Did that make me overweight in fires?

[temptation]

It seems to me that those rules are appropriate for a conservative pension fund manager. If you want to get ahead you need to do your own research and trust your own judgement.
If you don't want to do your own research and trust your own judgement, put your money in a conservative pension fund.

[COLIN]

I guess this is the way the world keeps correcting itself. High oil prices tells companies to look for alternative energy and tells consumers to change their habbits, cars etc. eg, the next car i buy i will place a higher emphasis on a gasoline user friendly vehicle. maybe downsize further and start walking more.
What amuses me with all this reaction from private motorists to increases in the fuel price is that fuel represents only a small part of the total cost of running your average car. Depreciation is by far the largest cost, and then there are repairs, tyre replacements, registration, insurance, WOF etc., to say nothing of the opportunity cost of the money tied up in the vehicle.
I think what is more worrying is that fuel price increases permeate the cost of virtually ever area of economic activity.

[COLIN]

Well I'm bl**dy sure Warren Buffet didn't get where he is by not trying to beat the market!


Agree. Otherwise whats the point of private investing - might as well just put it all in passive index funds (which usually do better than other managed funds, anyway.)

[Hoop]

Originally Posted by Casa del Energia http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/images/buttons/viewpost.gif (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?p=206420#post206420)
While it's all quiet on the NZO front - -time to reflect on some of the investment rules I'm breaking by being overweight NZO

1. Don't get involved in 'goldrushes'
2. Never deliberately overweight your portfolio
3. Don't speculate on rapid capital gain
4. Don't time getting into investments that are subject to wild swings in a volitile time.

and

5. Don't set out to beat the market.

I am super guilty of all of the above sins.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Me too
mainly because of capital appreciation of PRC over the last 6 months and my personal strategy doesn't involve those above rules.

Every activity we do in life has a risk factor...even staying in bed doing nothing.

Every person is different and have differing behaviour/decision making actions when exposed to differing degrees of risk.

Therefore every investor is different, so every now and again that investor should sit down with him/herself and re-access his/her inner strengths and weakness and apply a set of rules and conditions and form their own investment strategy around their personality traits and apply that strategy with discipline.

Times change e.g bullmarkets turn bear, political /law changes, the investors experience/skill factors improve, market segment shifts, so re-accessing one's strategy should be done when needed.

Usually a good successful experienced investor is one who settles into an investment niche area after finding a winning strategy that best suits their psyche.

Generalised rules are there for basic beginners as a conservative foundation to which they can evolve from....

...don't know why I wrote this ...because all us posters know this.

....I guess it is to reinforce my statement that being overweigh in PRC is not breaking any rules in my personalised investment Stategy at this moment in time, so I have no problem...

...perhaps if the NZOOD causes the breaking of rules in your strategy.. rectify the problem.

[Wilkins_Micawber]

What amuses me with all this reaction from private motorists to increases in the fuel price is that fuel represents only a small part of the total cost of running your average car. Depreciation is by far the largest cost, and then there are repairs, tyre replacements, registration, insurance, WOF etc., to say nothing of the opportunity cost of the money tied up in the vehicle.
I think what is more worrying is that fuel price increases permeate the cost of virtually ever area of economic activity.

Well put, Colin - couldn't agree with you more. I drive a not too new Range Rover and people think you need a mortgage (whatever that is :) ) to fill it up. But the same people drive round in new cars that cost them nearly twice as much to buy - their extra depreciation alone more than pays for the extra I pay for gas each fill but they will effectively get a much larger bill (in the form of a loss on sale) when they sell their vehicle.
And I have the other $15K working for me returning profit that the new car owners don't.
So, would I rather drive round in a not so new Range Rover or a new Toyota, Holden, etc - I choose the Range Rover - for me, it has a whole lot more class and kudos, is not the car you see at every street corner, and I know which one I would rather get in to each day.

But your last statement sums it up for me.

[Dr_Who]

I drive a not too new Range Rover




Mate, it must cost you over $200 to fill up the tank. I used to have a Range Rover. Nice SUV and I love the 8 cylinder grunt, but once it hits a certain age, things start to fall apart and the repair cost is huge. I prefer to buy a maintenance and hassle free new vehicle to drive around.