NZ Oil & Gas (NZO)

[Dr_Who]

Yea great bermuda. Never let money rule you.Retiring just because you can is an excellent example of how money can rule you. Retiring is boring and leads to a slow brain death from disuse.Stay in the thick of it and always keep climbing for the pure joy of it.
Bermuda you have brought up a good topic here even if untentionally. Pike and NZO could well make a lot of investers here rich enough to retire,but do not get sucked in. Take a holiday and get back into it,never give up regardless of how wealthy you get.Life is just more fun in the saddle.Also the very people who are smart enough to invest in these winners are the sorts of people that the rest of society will need to show then the way out of the hole they are digging themselves into.Even i seem to be waiking up a few individuals lately--or at least they have been forced to stop thinking i am an idiot.

Nothing wrong with being a bum. Actually I am a beach bum. Just like to walk on the beach and walk the dogs. Bum around and invest my money here and there.

[Corporate]

mmmm top'd up a few more NZO this morning!

[Casa del Energia]

mmmm top'd up a few more NZO this morning!


Probably a wise move. NZO is one of the few not dropping like a stone today - shows resilience at least. Starting to wonder if I should be breaking open a few reserve piggy banks and picking up more … specially with the latest 1/4ly figures combined with last nights $140 barrel. I really thought the subsidised Asian fuel markets would have started to feel it by now - - not so.

… and the Israelis are practising long range combat refuelling.

[fish]

Probably a wise move. NZO is one of the few not dropping like a stone today - shows resilience at least. Starting to wonder if I should be breaking open a few reserve piggy banks and picking up more … specially with the latest 1/4ly figures combined with last nights $140 barrel. I really thought the subsidised Asian fuel markets would have started to feel it by now - - not so.

… and the Israelis are practising long range combat refuelling.

tapis now at a new record nz price-
us 144.12 =nz $190 +=
= theoretical gross nzo share @ 5500 barrels a day tui oil-$1,045,000
-will be a fantastic finish to the financial year-esp with prc
When will the financials be available?

[Casa del Energia]

tapis now at a new record nz price-
us 144.12 =nz $190 +=
= theoretical gross nzo share @ 5500 barrels a day tui oil-$1,045,000
-will be a fantastic finish to the financial year-esp with prc
When will the financials be available?

! Cripes - The financial report - - that hadn't occurred to me - The reporting cycle ends a month before Mohomo is due to hit depth - the next report will be to June 30, should hit the streets July 31 ish. Mohomo is 51 days after spudding in - say 3 Aug. The end of next month could be a fascinating time.

[Ripping]

Nothing wrong with being a bum. Actually I am a beach bum........
I aspire to be a bum ! this company will help me realise that goal. Cheque gone for the 40k free option conversion today. i'm a pig in poo. :D

[Chalice]

I aspire to be a bum ! this company will help me realise that goal. Cheque gone for the 40k free option conversion today. i'm a pig in poo. :D

Great to have such a wonderful lifestyle facilitator at hand - I intend to keep my 2 years of having no gainful employment going - it certainly beats being a poo in pig!

[Dr_Who]

I aspire to be a bum ! this company will help me realise that goal. Cheque gone for the 40k free option conversion today. i'm a pig in poo. :D

Welcome on board mate. I wish you all the best applying for the flying pigs club. Let the mud wrestling piglets begin! :D

[zorba]

.

ABC Australia "Peak Oil" documentary on TVNZ 7

Tomorrow Saturday at 2:10 pm

http://tvnz.co.nz/view/page/497100/1596989

I caught the last few minutes of its first broadcast this evening -- it was on between 7:10 and 8 pm

It look very good -- quotes from the Hirsch Report etc

Will be rebroadcast tomorrow afternoon at 2:10 pm

[zorba]

.

Price of Oil pushes past US$141 / barrel:

http://futures.tradingcharts.com/intraday/CL_/88

Not good, tempting fate, global recession, collapse of commodities including oil !!??

Will it all end in tears ??

[fish]

.

Price of Oil pushes past US$141 / barrel:

http://futures.tradingcharts.com/intraday/CL_/88

Not good, tempting fate, global recession, collapse of commodities including oil !!??

Will it all end in tears ??

The days of cheap oil are over Zorba.

The world needed to wake up and change .

These changes I feel will be profound , painful for many, great opportunities but ultimately good for the planet and mankinds future .

Investing in nzo will give financial freedom and opportunities .

[fish]

PS
ZORBA HAD TO-- RUSH BUT i agree 100% with you no matter how good a company balance sheets reads when the market collapses good shares (nog) included will halve ----no good for MARGIN TRADERS-- PPS OIL FINISH ON US$141 APROX(NYMEX) FOR WEEK--
LOL malcolm
Lest anyone might take you seriously the most probable reality is nzo to increase in price no matter what the scenario-
most companies have significant borrowings and are at risk of failing in a recession
NZO has cash in the bank-even more with the options, and heaps of hydrocarbons esp . the best oil in the ground and a share of the best coal through prc
In a recession cash would be king-nzo would do fantastically well-buying up cheap assets as explorers with lots borrowings go under -anyone who thinks the price of oil is going to collapse is deluded . Libya and others are going to cut production if the price shows weakness.
All the stars are aligned for nzo and as bermuda says sell all your other holdings -most of those shares are going down-and buy into nzo .

[the machine]

per port taranakiwebsite it shows vessel due 0800 monday

Mon 30/06 08:00 TH SYMPHONY PSA fpso OTHER sea >> tui fpso -- /NIL NIL 240m 57458 0

so, if mainstains schedule then will load 300,000 barrels before the end of financial year and tui would have shipped over 14m barrels until june 30 2359 hours.

otherwise if vessel running late, the 300,000 barrels will be counted as product on hand for the balance sheet.

what happens if half loaded by 2359 hours june 30 - don't no, but as a guess it falls into the later.

M

[777]

per port taranakiwebsite it shows vessel due 0800 monday

Mon 30/06 08:00 TH SYMPHONY PSA fpso OTHER sea >> tui fpso -- /NIL NIL 240m 57458 0

so, if mainstains schedule then will load 300,000 barrels before the end of financial year and tui would have shipped over 14m barrels until june 30 2359 hours.

otherwise if vessel running late, the 300,000 barrels will be counted as product on hand for the balance sheet.

what happens if half loaded by 2359 hours june 30 - don't no, but as a guess it falls into the later.

M

Stock on hand or stock sold as at balance date still gives the same profit providing that the stock on hand is valued at sale price. ie: the sales figure will be different but the value to the company will be the same.

I imagine that oil still in the ground is reserves and oil out of the ground is stock on hand until sold.

Gross profit equals sales less cost of sales.

Cost of sales equals opening stock plus purchases less closing stock.

Accounting 101 in simplistic terms.

[Crypto Crude]

One more day to go until closing of competition...
I picked $1.70... someone else came in and stole it from underneath me after I selected it...
I then re-selected $1.69....
Send cheques in the mail, trophey and prizes to www.shrewdcrudechampion.com (http://www.shrewdcrudechampion.com)
I will be happy to take all prizes for $1.69 and spilt in half the prize for $1.70...
...
troll back through the threads and check for yourself...
...
Mackdunk eliminated himself from the comp as a prize winner....
He knew he could not claim the prize... I say this, because as time went on he knew there was no way he would win it...
Pity he had to pull my mate Diggz down wif him...
haha... laterzzzz....
:cool:
.^sc

[Corporate]

So does anyone care to predict what sort of profit we are going to be looking at this year. I can't wait to see the annual report!

[COLIN]

per port taranakiwebsite it shows vessel due 0800 monday

Mon 30/06 08:00 TH SYMPHONY PSA fpso OTHER sea >> tui fpso -- /NIL NIL 240m 57458 0



what happens if half loaded by 2359 hours june 30 - don't no, but as a guess it falls into the later.

M


I guess a sale is not a sale until you are in a position to invoice the customer, which wouldn't be until the vessel is loaded and ready to leave, presumably. However, there could well be other protocols in the oil industry.

[upside_umop]

So does anyone care to predict what sort of profit we are going to be looking at this year. I can't wait to see the annual report!

A rough estimate, im guessing $210 million.
This includes the unrealised gain from PRC...

These two companies are becoming heavy weights...

[COLIN]

One more day to go until closing of competition...
I picked $1.70... someone else came in and stole it from underneath me after I selected it...
I then re-selected $1.69....

.^sc


Shrewdie: I wasn't aware that I had stolen your number. I picked - and advised - $1-70 quite early in the piece and it was accepted by the Clan Chief (aka the Lord of The Isles) without demur, so I have contentedly regarded myself as holding this well-positioned number until now. I haven't trolled back through all the 100's of posts since then, but I am sure that the rules state that the decision of the Clan Chief will be final and no correspondence will be entered into. So there!
Cheers!
(I might consider a small donation to your favourite charity, though, as a consolation prize. What will it be - The Home for Distressed Gentlefolk perhaps?

[wk6332]

Anyone interested in some options befor they expire on monday please email me on wseb2@hotmail.com

[fish]

Tapis now us $147.30-a new record sale price
NZ dollar weakening progressively over last 3 months
nzo sp should rocket in july .
Likely to be heavy trading as institutions build up stakes and speculators sell out .

? is there a possibility nzo could end up in the top 10 nzx companies in the next 12 months .

[tim23]

I see in the Sunday times today ACC now disclose just over 11% of the stock.

[upside_umop]

.

? is there a possibility nzo could end up in the top 10 nzx companies in the next 12 months .

a very real possibility. fpa only has a cap of 563 million...nzo after options should be over 600...they should have the volume too.

[upside_umop]

if so much of prc wasnt held non-floating, then it would be battling it out up in the top10 aswell..

[duncan macgregor]

[QUOTE=duncan macgregor;207051]Competition to select NZO share price on conversion date June 30th
in the event of a tie the winner is the person with the correct score posting first
I will list you in posting order.
1,AMR 180c, 2, OILER 165c, 3,Macdunk 159c. 4,MATTYROO 158c.
5,SEAMUS 135c, 6,SERPIE 131c, 7, LIZ 120c, 8, STRAT157c.
9TRACKERS 168, 10, COLIN 170, 11,THE MACHINE 210c. 12,MALCOLM 200c.
13,SPOOK 172, 14,BIG BOB184c, 15,ZORBA 155c, 16, REMY 167c,
17 AMERICAN PSYCHO 175c 18 SHASTA 161c, 19RONTHEPOM 171c 20 PHAEDRUS 160.
21SHREWDY 169, 22 BERMUDA 149, 23 MORV 183c, 24 COALIE 188c
25 DIGGER 173c, 26 blank, 27 NITA 181c, 28 SUMMER NED 193c.
29 QOH 179c, 30 WK6332 225c 31 BALANCE $10-60 32 KS 162,
33 TOK3N 145c, 34 SHANE M 162.5c, 35CORRAN 156c, 36 MICK100 300c.
37 DSURF 154c, 38 SKEET 185c,39 MIBO 177c, 40 JAY 162c,
41 ZACMAN 187c, 42 GAMBLER33 115c, 43 ANUBUS144c, 44 BRUCETO9 164c.
45 romer 163c.46 HOOP 147c 47 RABBI 148c 48 ROTWEILLER 153c,
49 MINGEATHINAIOOS 150c,50 MANXMAN 195c, 51 MACDUFFY 146c, 52 BLOCKHEAD 198c,
53 777 226c,54 SWISSBOY 174c,55 AIRDALE166,56 CLIPS 178c,
57 PADDIE 196c,58 FOODEE 176, 59 BK152c,60 MPC182c,
61 STEVE 151,62 ONTHEMONEY 143, 63 LION 186, 64,TIM23 189c,
65 BOB C 190 66 RIF RAF 191c 67, OUT TO LUNCH 194 68 SEHNSUCHT888 192c,
69 PIETRADE 220c,70 ZAC 197c, 71,CAM 245C,72, CHALICE 214c,
73 GLENDOONIE 142c 74,UPSIDE_UMOP 159c,

[tim23]

Assume you mean 1 day to go; I'll go for Spook, Colin or Ron the Pom!

[duncan macgregor]

Assume you mean 1 day to go; I'll go for Spook, Colin or Ron the Pom! Sorry about that TIM i just got back and had my dates mixed up. Macdunk

[tim23]

So who you picking to win??

[Grand Uber]

My moneys on balance

[trackers]

2c off in macdunks comp.....gonna be close (but with the soaring tapis price, probably not!)!

[Crypto Crude]

colin-shrewdie-
(I might consider a small donation to your favourite charity, though, as a consolation prize. What will it be - The Home for Distressed Gentlefolk perhaps?
my mate colin,
Theres no problem at all... It was not your fault, it was someone else's... the competition host never picked up on it... haha... At the end of the day, I said nothing about it at the time, so I cant complain....
anyway, $1.69 still has a chance... Im in the ball game...
DOW down 100pts again... yah never know...

Perhaps consider a small donation to the, "Special ticket to National Convention fund"...your name is on it...
Special event prize includes getting to talk to other investors, Serpie as taxi service, (pick up/drop off), hot stock tips, one free drink of your choice....
This is a worthy charity... Its for the good of the nation...
YOU have game... what a pick...

:)
.^sc

[Mick100]

My moneys on balance

Yes, I think balance deserves a prize for thr following reasons:
- his pick is closest to where the shareprice should be
- he hasn't posted on this thread for a long time
,

[fish]

Report: OPEC president sees oil at $170 this year
Khelil blames Fed, falling dollar, increased demand for surging crude prices
By MarketWatch
Last update: 1:24 p.m. EDT June 28, 2008Comments: 235SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Oil prices will climb to $170 a barrel this year because of increased demand, political tension and decisions made by monetary policymakers in the U.S. and Europe that have devalued the U.S. dollar, OPEC President Chakib Khelil told Bloomberg News on Saturday.
"Oil prices are expected to reach $170 as demand for fuel is growing in the U.S. during the summer period and the dollar continues to weaken against the euro," Khelil, leader of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, said, according to the news service.
Political pressure on Iran and the depreciation of the U.S. currency have caused a surge in oil prices, Khelil explained.
Crude prices hit a record $142.99 a barrel on Friday in New York trading. See full story.

I wonder if ACC will regret selling off last week.
A lid certainly seemed to be on the price last week-probably also last minute option holders(unfortunately included me ) needing to sell heads .
With the lid off the sp should steam -my bet is $2.50-in august

[tim23]

NZOG lead article in the latest edition, very positive.

[remy]

.
"Oil prices are expected to reach $170 as demand for fuel is growing in the U.S. during the summer period...


is it just me or were they not saying the same thing leading up to winter?

[digger]

I see in the Sunday times today ACC now disclose just over 11% of the stock.
I have not read this piece,but my money is on it being more likely to be somewhere near 11% than just over 5%. Acc used to have just over 5% but sold down to suppress the options.Still they ended up buying a high % of options ,the exact figure i can not recall.However even if they sold all there heads the exercising would still give them more than 5.44%. We will know next week. Do not place too much confidence on reporters to get it right,but good on them if on this one special occasion it is correct. My pick is about 8 or 9%

[Unicorn]

I wonder if ACC will regret selling off last week.


Did ACC sell off? The notices released recently indicate that ACC sold a net 1.3M heads, while buying 6.5M options. That looks to me like a buy up, not a sell off.

[fish]

is it just me or were they not saying the same thing leading up to winter?

True-all sorts of reasons are quoted by opec as the reason for the increase in oil prices-but they seem to deny the real reason--a shortage of oil .
It seems that the price of oil still has upside for the rest of the year-opec will blame american dollar and northern hemisphere winter !

[fish]

for one second may be-- read below sold some back down to 5.44 aprox

Hi Unicorn- I was just quoting malcolms post earlier today . Its all very confusing with options and heads still in the equation .
Its going to be a very interesting week finding out who has substantial interests in nzo
I am looking forward to seeing the end of trading tomorrow-I have arranged 15 minutes off work to watch the close of trading !

[zigzag]

I get the impression that they've sold down the heads to exercise their options. That way they can release some cash or increase their holding. ACC seems to have so much cash, they're running out of places to stash it, and still my levy keeps on going up and up and up and.........Digger. What was your plan? perhaps we could sack [ Maryann Street ?] and put you in charge.

[bermuda]

Hi Unicorn- I was just quoting malcolms post earlier today . Its all very confusing with options and heads still in the equation .
Its going to be a very interesting week finding out who has substantial interests in nzo
I am looking forward to seeing the end of trading tomorrow-I have arranged 15 minutes off work to watch the close of trading !

Hi Fish,
That is dedication. I am away so wont see it. My bet of 149 got gobbled up. I didnt realise that after my pick that 3 or so brokers would come out with such positive valuations. These are the same brokers who were telling their clients to avoid NZO just 12 months or so ago. It is not their fault. They have too many issues and emotions to deal with.

Anyway, they are finally on board.

Congrats to the winner?. Shrewdy, you are a leading contender. As always.

[Crypto Crude]

Dump stock NOW....
$1.69...
Also, Think about the Colin fund... AT least sell stock until SP hits $1.70...
Do it for him...
its the Charity event of the year...
:)
.^sc

[duncan macgregor]

Dump stock NOW....
$1.69...
Also, Think about the Colin fund... AT least sell stock until SP hits $1.70...
Do it for him...
its the Charity event of the year...
:)
.^sc You are right of luck SHREWDY. I will buy them myself if i thought the price might end up at $1-69. Macdunk

[mibo]

My 177c is looking pretty good now. I had my doubts a few weeks ago, still a lot can happen in the next day :cool:

Disc: Don't hold NZO (sigh...)

[digger]

My 177c is looking pretty good now. I had my doubts a few weeks ago, still a lot can happen in the next day :cool:

Disc: Don't hold NZO (sigh...)


Get off the grass.My 1-73 is where it has been most of the day so DM will declare me the winner. My winnings will be kept till i have my NZO party in nov and DM can present it to me after i buy it that is and as clearly all NZO holders are winners we will share it.
Alas it is not the end of the day yet so anything could happen.For now PRC will not send NZO up,and it is too early for Momoho and soon the overweight NZO holders will sell.NZO will rise in August.

[duncan macgregor]

Get off the grass.My 1-73 is where it has been most of the day so DM will declare me the winner. My winnings will be kept till i have my NZO party in nov and DM can present it to me after i buy it that is and as clearly all NZO holders are winners we will share it.
Alas it is not the end of the day yet so anything could happen.For now PRC will not send NZO up,and it is too early for Momoho and soon the overweight NZO holders will sell.NZO will rise in August. Alas DIGGER mate if 173c is the winner then the winning number will be the previous sell price before that, as you are not allowed to win your own bottle of plonk. Someone with half a brain that has not entered so far is in a great position to score your number. Who said NZO shareholders were all brain dead surely one of you would have worked that one out by now. What a competition entries allowed right up to the end. Macdunk

[mibo]

Get off the grass.My 1-73 is where it has been most of the day so DM will declare me the winner. My winnings will be kept till i have my NZO party in nov and DM can present it to me after i buy it that is and as clearly all NZO holders are winners we will share it.
Alas it is not the end of the day yet so anything could happen.For now PRC will not send NZO up,and it is too early for Momoho and soon the overweight NZO holders will sell.NZO will rise in August.

I admire your confidence :) By the way it is now at 175c :D

[trackers]

Get off the grass.My 1-73 is where it has been most of the day so DM will declare me the winner. My winnings will be kept till i have my NZO party in nov and DM can present it to me after i buy it that is and as clearly all NZO holders are winners we will share it.
Alas it is not the end of the day yet so anything could happen.For now PRC will not send NZO up,and it is too early for Momoho and soon the overweight NZO holders will sell.NZO will rise in August.

I think the overweight holders have already got rid of most of their excess... Sell side starting to fade away a bit.

900k buyers, 400k sellers (200k of that @ 1.75/1.76)

[foodee]

Getting closer to 'the quiet one'!

[duncan macgregor]

So who you picking to win?? I think my sparring partner NITA is starting to look good for a change. Macdunk

[Chalice]

Get off the grass.My 1-73 is where it has been most of the day so DM will declare me the winner. My winnings will be kept till i have my NZO party in nov and DM can present it to me after i buy it that is and as clearly all NZO holders are winners we will share it.
Alas it is not the end of the day yet so anything could happen.For now PRC will not send NZO up,and it is too early for Momoho and soon the overweight NZO holders will sell.NZO will rise in August.

You are obviously on some pretty good grass - no small vols through at 1.73 at close I hope or we'll have to call in the UN...

[QOH]

This is getting exciting.

[Bilo]

and soon the overweight NZO holders will sell.NZO will rise in August.

Normally I agree with you Digger and on the basis that people usually sell their best performing stocks and hold onto the dogs then NZO should be on these holders sell list. (Perhaps your post was tongue in cheek for the benefit of MD:rolleyes:? or are you looking to top up?;))

But this time the POO is generally expected to at least hold at current prices. Oil and Gas companies in bourses around the world are the only equity segment increasing their value as the world adapts to the prospect of much higher oil and gas prices. NZO's SP has been artificially depressed by the Options exercise. Year end financials are on the way revealing the obscene profits from Tui. Dividends on the way. PRC's SP is booming. Tui is flying. Kupe is nearly upon us with key steps being completed by the month. The New Zealand dollar is becoming monopoly money.

And NZO is beginning to look a sitter for inclusion into the NZX top 15!

Being overweight in NZO could be becoming a status symbol, certainly as it progresses towards $3 it will be a money spinner for holders. The best exposure to the booming resource sector in NZ.

Dump NZO? Not me! :)

[leecoker]

Alas DIGGER mate if 173c is the winner then the winning number will be the previous sell price before that, as you are not allowed to win your own bottle of plonk. Someone with half a brain that has not entered so far is in a great position to score your number. Who said NZO shareholders were all brain dead surely one of you would have worked that one out by now. What a competition entries allowed right up to the end. Macdunk

So does that mean I can choose 173c? If so, lock it in.

[Dr_Who]

So who you picking to win??

We are all winners here mate. Well, those that hold NZO are winners. :D And those that dont hold NZO, tough ! :D

[Corporate]

Normally I agree with you Digger and on the basis that people usually sell their best performing stocks and hold onto the dogs then NZO should be on these holders sell list. (Perhaps your post was tongue in cheek for the benefit of MD:rolleyes:? or are you looking to top up?;))

But this time the POO is generally expected to at least hold at current prices. Oil and Gas companies in bourses around the world are the only equity segment increasing their value as the world adapts to the prospect of much higher oil and gas prices. NZO's SP has been artificially depressed by the Options exercise. Year end financials are on the way revealing the obscene profits from Tui. Dividends on the way. PRC's SP is booming. Tui is flying. Kupe is nearly upon us with key steps being completed by the month. The New Zealand dollar is becoming monopoly money.

And NZO is beginning to look a sitter for inclusion into the NZX top 15!

Being overweight in NZO could be becoming a status symbol, certainly as it progresses towards $3 it will be a money spinner for holders. The best exposure to the booming resource sector in NZ.

Dump NZO? Not me! :)


Well done everyone that is holding! My top up at 1.71 on friday is looking like an outstanding move

[trackers]

Toot toot! All aboard, the NZO train is leaving the station! -told ya digger ;)

NZO @ 1.80

Buyers of 1,100,000, sellers of 200,000

Will it hit 1.90 today? could do, quite easily.

[Naylz]

Toot toot! All aboard, the NZO train is leaving the station! -told ya digger ;)

NZO @ 1.80

Buyers of 1,100,000, sellers of 200,000

Will it hit 1.90 today? could do, quite easily.

There will be a lot more sellers on the market in the next few days once people who have converted the options get the shares and then take their profits. I expect a short fall in the next few days before we make the big gains.

[Dr_Who]

There will be a lot more sellers on the market in the next few days once people who have converted the options get the shares and then take their profits. I expect a short fall in the next few days before we make the big gains.

Not if crude continues to go up higher over night. How high will those crudes go? Nobody knows! :)

[duncan macgregor]

[QUOTE=duncan macgregor;209509][QUOTE=duncan macgregor;207051]Competition to select NZO share price on conversion date June 30th
in the event of a tie the winner is the person with the correct score posting first
I will list you in posting order.
1,AMR 180c, 2, OILER 165c, 3,Macdunk 159c. 4,MATTYROO 158c.
5,SEAMUS 135c, 6,SERPIE 131c, 7, LIZ 120c, 8, STRAT157c.
9TRACKERS 168, 10, COLIN 170, 11,THE MACHINE 210c. 12,MALCOLM 200c.
13,SPOOK 172, 14,BIG BOB184c, 15,ZORBA 155c, 16, REMY 167c,
17 AMERICAN PSYCHO 175c 18 SHASTA 161c, 19RONTHEPOM 171c 20 PHAEDRUS 160.
21SHREWDY 169, 22 BERMUDA 149, 23 MORV 183c, 24 COALIE 188c
25 DIGGER 173c, 26 blank, 27 NITA 181c, 28 SUMMER NED 193c.
29 QOH 179c, 30 WK6332 225c 31 BALANCE $10-60 32 KS 162,
33 TOK3N 145c, 34 SHANE M 162.5c, 35CORRAN 156c, 36 MICK100 300c.
37 DSURF 154c, 38 SKEET 185c,39 MIBO 177c, 40 JAY 162c,
41 ZACMAN 187c, 42 GAMBLER33 115c, 43 ANUBUS144c, 44 BRUCETO9 164c.
45 romer 163c.46 HOOP 147c 47 RABBI 148c 48 ROTWEILLER 153c,
49 MINGEATHINAIOOS 150c,50 MANXMAN 195c, 51 MACDUFFY 146c, 52 BLOCKHEAD 198c,
53 777 226c,54 SWISSBOY 174c,55 AIRDALE166,56 CLIPS 178c,
57 PADDIE 196c,58 FOODEE 176, 59 BK152c,60 MPC182c,
61 STEVE 151,62 ONTHEMONEY 143, 63 LION 186, 64,TIM23 189c,
65 BOB C 190 66 RIF RAF 191c 67, OUT TO LUNCH 194 68 SEHNSUCHT888 192c,
69 PIETRADE 220c,70 ZAC 197c, 71,CAM 245C,72, CHALICE 214c,
73 GLENDOONIE 142c 74,UPSIDE_UMOP 159c,

[Naylz]

Not if crude continues to go up higher over night. How high will those crudes go? Nobody knows! :)
There are still going to be a large number who sold their heads, took up options and who are unable to sell at the moment until they receive their allocation, who will want to take their profits. Those speculators are not in the market yet as they cannot sell the options that they have converted.

[bermuda]

Well done to all holders. This has been a fantastic success story and there is so much more to come.

I remember about 4 years ago sitting at the internet at Millbrook when NZO was about 40 odd cents, thinking to myself there will come a day when we will see price rises of 10 cents or more in a day and the shareprice will be over $2.00. These days are almost upon us.

A few months back both NZO and PRC were about $1.60 each and I could see that ( because of the options ) that PRC would race away from NZO by about 30 cents, and then NZO would play catch up.

NZO will climb once all the silly mum and dad selling disappears but I am starting to think that PRC is going to maintain that lead ( which has now stretched out to almost 70 cents. )

PRC is truly a sensational international stock to have in this environment of steel demand and not enough secure coking coal, but NZO is also a star rising and Momoho could put it into a new orbit.

Thanks for the comp. MacDunk. Been a bit of fun, and looking back, all the snipers and cloudnines have disappeared.

But who will win? All of us.

[morv]

Got a Forbar Portfolio Magazine,in the weekend mail,full of wise advice that now is the time to purchase those shares that are trading at third to half their predicted values.All the old tired faithfuls,FBU,AIR,PPL,no mention of stocks that are increasing in value like NZO,PRC,no mention of resource stocks ,asian economies,appears like they just rehash last years newsletter.

[shasta]

Well done to all holders. This has been a fantastic success story and there is so much more to come.

I remember about 4 years ago sitting at the internet at Millbrook when NZO was about 40 odd cents, thinking to myself there will come a day when we will see price rises of 10 cents or more in a day and the shareprice will be over $2.00. These days are almost upon us.

A few months back both NZO and PRC were about $1.60 each and I could see that ( because of the options ) that PRC would race away from NZO by about 30 cents, and then NZO would play catch up.

NZO will climb once all the silly mum and dad selling disappears but I am starting to think that PRC is going to maintain that lead ( which has now stretched out to almost 70 cents. )

PRC is truly a sensational international stock to have in this environment of steel demand and not enough secure coking coal, but NZO is also a star rising and Momoho could put it into a new orbit.

Thanks for the comp. MacDunk. Been a bit of fun, and looking back, all the snipers and cloudnines have disappeared.

But who will win? All of us.

Don't be so sure Sniper & C9 aren't already here in another guise :D

I'm going to sulk in the corner until i work out why i sold out of NZO :(

[COLIN]

Got a Forbar Portfolio Magazine,in the weekend mail,full of wise advice that now is the time to purchase those shares that are trading at third to half their predicted values.All the old tired faithfuls,FBU,AIR,PPL,no mention of stocks that are increasing in value like NZO,PRC,no mention of resource stocks ,asian economies,appears like they just rehash last years newsletter.

Yeah, pathetic isn't it.
I gave up on sharebroker "advice" ("adverse") years ago.

[COLIN]

So, Clips it is!
Can't recall him/her posting on this forum but we should encourage (beg) him/her to impart as much wisdom to us as possible!
Congrats, Clips!

[bermuda]

So, Clips it is!
Can't recall him/her posting on this forum but we should encourage (beg) him/her to impart as much wisdom to us as possible!
Congrats

Congrats Clips

Hope you have heaps.

Going to go a lot higher.

[QOH]

Congratulations Clip, lol that was more stressful than waiting for a trademe auction to close. As one of the first runners up can I place the crown on you?
Can anyone tell me if their options have been been converted to shares yet at computershare registry.Will panic if my cheque hasn't been presented tonight.

[bull....]

$150 oil this week will that equate to a price of over $2 for nzo.

[Nitaa]

Well done Clips.. sensational.

Duncan.. remember that horse called Kiwi....no good being the front runner 400 metres from home..

for the record.. i came home close with my 1.81. much better than you there duncan my friend.. you see.. its the ability of one to see what no one else can se that makes one stand out. For that i think am going to appoint clips as my personal financial adviser if he isnt already booked out.

dunc. let me know when you are going to buy in... that will be my cue to sell

[duncan macgregor]

[QUOTE=duncan macgregor;209708][QUOTE=duncan macgregor;209509][QUOTE=duncan macgregor;207051]Competition to select NZO share price on conversion date June 30th
in the event of a tie the winner is the person with the correct score posting first
I will list you in posting order.
1,AMR 180c, 2, OILER 165c, 3,Macdunk 159c. 4,MATTYROO 158c.
5,SEAMUS 135c, 6,SERPIE 131c, 7, LIZ 120c, 8, STRAT157c.
9TRACKERS 168, 10, COLIN 170, 11,THE MACHINE 210c. 12,MALCOLM 200c.
13,SPOOK 172, 14,BIG BOB184c, 15,ZORBA 155c, 16, REMY 167c,
17 AMERICAN PSYCHO 175c 18 SHASTA 161c, 19RONTHEPOM 171c 20 PHAEDRUS 160.
21SHREWDY 169, 22 BERMUDA 149, 23 MORV 183c, 24 COALIE 188c
25 DIGGER 173c, 26 blank, 27 NITA 181c, 28 SUMMER NED 193c.
29 QOH 179c, 30 WK6332 225c 31 BALANCE $10-60 32 KS 162,
33 TOK3N 145c, 34 SHANE M 162.5c, 35CORRAN 156c, 36 MICK100 300c.
37 DSURF 154c, 38 SKEET 185c,39 MIBO 177c, 40 JAY 162c,
41 ZACMAN 187c, 42 GAMBLER33 115c, 43 ANUBUS144c, 44 BRUCETO9 164c.
45 romer 163c.46 HOOP 147c 47 RABBI 148c 48 ROTWEILLER 153c,
49 MINGEATHINAIOOS 150c,50 MANXMAN 195c, 51 MACDUFFY 146c, 52 BLOCKHEAD 198c,
53 777 226c,54 SWISSBOY 174c,55 AIRDALE166,56 CLIPS 178c,
57 PADDIE 196c,58 FOODEE 176, 59 BK152c,60 MPC182c,
61 STEVE 151,62 ONTHEMONEY 143, 63 LION 186, 64,TIM23 189c,
65 BOB C 190 66 RIF RAF 191c 67, OUT TO LUNCH 194 68 SEHNSUCHT888 192c,
69 PIETRADE 220c,70 ZAC 197c, 71,CAM 245C,72, CHALICE 214c,
73 GLENDOONIE 142c 74,UPSIDE_UMOP 159c,
[/QUOTE
THE WINNER IS NUMBER 56 with CLIPS ON 178c WELL DONE CLIPS E-MAIL DIGGER WHERE YOU WOULD LIKE YOUR PRIZE COURIERED TO. DIGGER thanks for being so generous in offering the prize I would have done it myself but being SCOTTISH I have a reputation to uphold. Macdunk

[bermuda]

MacDunk,
You should insist that the prize is awarded at Diggers party in November. Moet et al. And Tui.

[digger]

[QUOTE=duncan macgregor;209708][QUOTE=duncan macgregor;209509][QUOTE=duncan macgregor;207051]Competition to select NZO share price on conversion date June 30th
in the event of a tie the winner is the person with the correct score posting first
I will list you in posting order.
1,AMR 180c, 2, OILER 165c, 3,Macdunk 159c. 4,MATTYROO 158c.
5,SEAMUS 135c, 6,SERPIE 131c, 7, LIZ 120c, 8, STRAT157c.
9TRACKERS 168, 10, COLIN 170, 11,THE MACHINE 210c. 12,MALCOLM 200c.
13,SPOOK 172, 14,BIG BOB184c, 15,ZORBA 155c, 16, REMY 167c,
17 AMERICAN PSYCHO 175c 18 SHASTA 161c, 19RONTHEPOM 171c 20 PHAEDRUS 160.
21SHREWDY 169, 22 BERMUDA 149, 23 MORV 183c, 24 COALIE 188c
25 DIGGER 173c, 26 blank, 27 NITA 181c, 28 SUMMER NED 193c.
29 QOH 179c, 30 WK6332 225c 31 BALANCE $10-60 32 KS 162,
33 TOK3N 145c, 34 SHANE M 162.5c, 35CORRAN 156c, 36 MICK100 300c.
37 DSURF 154c, 38 SKEET 185c,39 MIBO 177c, 40 JAY 162c,
41 ZACMAN 187c, 42 GAMBLER33 115c, 43 ANUBUS144c, 44 BRUCETO9 164c.
45 romer 163c.46 HOOP 147c 47 RABBI 148c 48 ROTWEILLER 153c,
49 MINGEATHINAIOOS 150c,50 MANXMAN 195c, 51 MACDUFFY 146c, 52 BLOCKHEAD 198c,
53 777 226c,54 SWISSBOY 174c,55 AIRDALE166,56 CLIPS 178c,
57 PADDIE 196c,58 FOODEE 176, 59 BK152c,60 MPC182c,
61 STEVE 151,62 ONTHEMONEY 143, 63 LION 186, 64,TIM23 189c,
65 BOB C 190 66 RIF RAF 191c 67, OUT TO LUNCH 194 68 SEHNSUCHT888 192c,
69 PIETRADE 220c,70 ZAC 197c, 71,CAM 245C,72, CHALICE 214c,
73 GLENDOONIE 142c 74,UPSIDE_UMOP 159c,
[/QUOTE
THE WINNER IS NUMBER 56 with CLIPS ON 178c WELL DONE CLIPS E-MAIL DIGGER WHERE YOU WOULD LIKE YOUR PRIZE COURIERED TO. DIGGER thanks for being so generous in offering the prize I would have done it myself but being SCOTTISH I have a reputation to uphold. Macdunk

Clips is the man,or the woman but in any case the winner.I was 5 cents too consertative.Still around it was a light heared comp and helped to pass what for me has been a stressful time. 5 oclock tonight has been shaping up for about 2 months as a time when a lot of things come to a head. This comp and the sale of my house in Morrinsville has just passed about an hour ago. Sure tidies up a lot of loose ends and all as i hoped.
Clips email me on.
cboreham@xtra.co.nz
Give me your address and your preference on a bottle at 100 or several up to 100 or do you want to pick your own. Cheers and congradulations

[shasta]

[quote=duncan macgregor;209708][quote=duncan macgregor;209509][quote=duncan macgregor;207051]Competition to select NZO share price on conversion date June 30th
in the event of a tie the winner is the person with the correct score posting first
I will list you in posting order.
1,AMR 180c, 2, OILER 165c, 3,Macdunk 159c. 4,MATTYROO 158c.
5,SEAMUS 135c, 6,SERPIE 131c, 7, LIZ 120c, 8, STRAT157c.
9TRACKERS 168, 10, COLIN 170, 11,THE MACHINE 210c. 12,MALCOLM 200c.
13,SPOOK 172, 14,BIG BOB184c, 15,ZORBA 155c, 16, REMY 167c,
17 AMERICAN PSYCHO 175c 18 SHASTA 161c, 19RONTHEPOM 171c 20 PHAEDRUS 160.
21SHREWDY 169, 22 BERMUDA 149, 23 MORV 183c, 24 COALIE 188c
25 DIGGER 173c, 26 blank, 27 NITA 181c, 28 SUMMER NED 193c.
29 QOH 179c, 30 WK6332 225c 31 BALANCE $10-60 32 KS 162,
33 TOK3N 145c, 34 SHANE M 162.5c, 35CORRAN 156c, 36 MICK100 300c.
37 DSURF 154c, 38 SKEET 185c,39 MIBO 177c, 40 JAY 162c,
41 ZACMAN 187c, 42 GAMBLER33 115c, 43 ANUBUS144c, 44 BRUCETO9 164c.
45 romer 163c.46 HOOP 147c 47 RABBI 148c 48 ROTWEILLER 153c,
49 MINGEATHINAIOOS 150c,50 MANXMAN 195c, 51 MACDUFFY 146c, 52 BLOCKHEAD 198c,
53 777 226c,54 SWISSBOY 174c,55 AIRDALE166,56 CLIPS 178c,
57 PADDIE 196c,58 FOODEE 176, 59 BK152c,60 MPC182c,
61 STEVE 151,62 ONTHEMONEY 143, 63 LION 186, 64,TIM23 189c,
65 BOB C 190 66 RIF RAF 191c 67, OUT TO LUNCH 194 68 SEHNSUCHT888 192c,
69 PIETRADE 220c,70 ZAC 197c, 71,CAM 245C,72, CHALICE 214c,
73 GLENDOONIE 142c 74,UPSIDE_UMOP 159c,
[/QUOTE
THE WINNER IS NUMBER 56 with CLIPS ON 178c WELL DONE CLIPS E-MAIL DIGGER WHERE YOU WOULD LIKE YOUR PRIZE COURIERED TO. DIGGER thanks for being so generous in offering the prize I would have done it myself but being SCOTTISH I have a reputation to uphold. Macdunk

Well done Clips, commiserations to QOH & Mibo, close but no cigar...

Well done DS & all those @ NZO for getting the options over the line.

NZO got lucky with the rising oil prices :cool:

[digger]

MacDunk,
You should insist that the prize is awarded at Diggers party in November. Moet et al. And Tui.
I like that idea but it is now up to Clips. Clips are you interested in seeing a god forsaken piece of land when only the wild can survive.Way up on a hill overlooking most of the eastern waikato.Self power,you Clips can do the first hour on the treadmill to get the lights on.TR will be the last as he has a lot of staying power. Well he must have or NZO would have gone by the way side like most other oil companies back in the 80 and 90's,in which case we would not be having this competition and my party in Nov.
Sold my house today at 5 0clock so now can concretate on getting the new one up and running. Today they just finished sanding all the inside.Tomorrow the painting starts.The day after wife and i agrue over whether we should have painted or wallpapered. Just saying so you know why i need to November to get a few things in order.

[AMR]

OH so close! Just 2c away for me!

[foodee]

Congratulation Clips.
Thanks MacDunk for organisaing.
Well done noggers.

cheers

[Crypto Crude]

What an anti climax...
If only my mate dunks had of taken the bate last year...
:cool:
.^sc

[Nitaa]

dunc.. hard question so i dont expect you to answer.

Is NZO in an uptrend? When do you think the confirmed buy signal is..$2? $3? $10? Play it safe and stick to the ausie oilers or leave your cash in the bank?

ps. nzx must be down over 20% this year and nzo (and prc) are up oodles.

[Crypto Crude]

nita-Play it safe and stick to the ausie oilers or leave your cash in the bank?

Nita,
YES, play it safe and stick with auzzie oilers...
Start with, NZO.ASX...
Stock worth north of $3 when Pike and Kupe come on production...
classic rerate of developing projects... no need for exploration...
Momoho might steal the show...
:)
.^sc

[tim23]

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

dunc.. hard question so i dont expect you to answer.

Is NZO in an uptrend? When do you think the confirmed buy signal is..$2? $3? $10? Play it safe and stick to the ausie oilers or leave your cash in the bank?

ps. nzx must be down over 20% this year and nzo (and prc) are up oodles.

[foodee]

Mac
I seldom post here becasue there are so many astute guys.
You said somewhere you are in to win. What do you consider a winning stock for you.

Is it one with:-
# an uptrending co
# a co with no debt
# a co with sustainable profits in the medium term
# a co with proven products and growth
# a co paying good dividend

NZO may fit! Forget about the past look to the future.
I suspect you may have some tucked away already.:rolleyes:

disc: have never sold any


Macdunk
Now that the options are out of the way
and the way ahead is clearer. I thought maybe
you could revisit this post.:rolleyes:

cheers

[duncan macgregor]

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

dunc.. hard question so i dont expect you to answer.

Is NZO in an uptrend? When do you think the confirmed buy signal is..$2? $3? $10? Play it safe and stick to the ausie oilers or leave your cash in the bank?

ps. nzx must be down over 20% this year and nzo (and prc) are up oodles. TIM you and i both know that i took my money to Australia over 18 months ago. I have had a 13% exchange gain for starters plus doubled my money nearly twice . I then got out the market predicting a downtrend leading up to a crash at the end of this year. You are very welcome to your wins but you are still a long way behind playing catch up. Please dont keep asking me about NZO i am very happy for you. Macdunk

[tim23]

Thanks, your move to Australia was smart but you have to concede NOG & PRC have been even more spectacular since you made your move.

[Casa del Energia]

Congratulations Clips - I would have been miles out if I entrered. Thanks Macdunk for the organisation. Thankyou to the oil market for getting refinery capacity so wrong that I can now gloat over a very nice paper profit. Next stop $2 ..(paul, dave- yes, New world has bollinger for $88)

[COLIN]

Congratulations Clip, lol that was more stressful than waiting for a trademe auction to close. As one of the first runners up can I place the crown on you?
Can anyone tell me if their options have been been converted to shares yet at computershare registry.Will panic if my cheque hasn't been presented tonight.

Don't panic just yet, QOH. They said they are doing them in weekly batches. I imagine there was a deluge in the mail today, and likely to also be tomorrow - and remember, they said that as long as the covering envelope was postmarked before 5 p.m. tonight the relative application would be accepted, so that protects you from any Post Office delays.
(Don't ask me what happens if they can't decipher the date/time on the postmark! I imagine they would have to use their imagination - probably use a common sense approach.)

[fish]

[
Tapis at a new record-now over us $148

NZO attracting lots buyers and selling pressure declining

I feel the rise in sp during july will be very rapid and the quarterly profit announcement at the end july will be phenomenal .

Lets hope no one here makes the mistake of selling a rising stock-as some did with prc.

If selling pressure continues to subside the institutions might have to pay a more reasonable price to get in .

IMO nzo at current conventional valuation of assets is about $3 but as a successful company 30 yrs experience and knowledge is worth double that .

[digger]

QOH,when we had the OC's exercised a few years ago,it took weeks to sort it all out.The tail ends are usually from solicators from estates. I would not go asking them if they received yours as i did last time as it will be all chaos and the answer you get will probably be from someone too busy to check.
I think you can say it is sufficient to display publicly here that you have sent them in and even in the very unlikely event that it gets returned to you keep the return record and send it in again. I sent mine in by registred mail today. They will be earning there keep at computershare in the coming qweeks.

[clips]

stone the crows.... i would like to give a long detailed anaylsis of how i settled on 178
however i can't !!. more a mixture of measured quess work and hope ..

management did state getting the options in the money was an objective, and then they got the pr machine into gear...

i'm about waist deep into Nzo, have converted options.
also up to my knees in Prc..

keep in mind nothing, oil, gas, coal, commodities, property values, shares, will go up for
ever.

in this weather another log on the fire,a big glass of a deep gutsy red, and all is well.

cheers
-- thks digger, will consider settlement overnight

[digger]

Has anyone else piicked up on what i see happening on the 6 Oclock news lately.

The media is IMHO sick of oil price rises and are trying to down play what is happening.Before the WTI crude price on Bloomberg was the same price reported on news.Now news is always a few dollars less. Currently Bloomberg has WTI at 142 yet news has it at 139-40. Also to further my point on TV1 tonight the business report had all down shares listed and no up.NZO should have been recorded as the only rise on the top 50 today. It seems to me as if they are trying to be nice to the hard pressed focks out there that in former good times would not interest themselves in oil stocks.
If other think the same we should put in a complaint as it is there job to report it as it is.They haven't.

[upside_umop]

hi digger,

i saw it tonight too..was it for brent crude not wti?

was also a little disappointed not to see prc/nzo on the ups...

[bermuda]

stone the crows.... i would like to give a long detailed anaylsis of how i settled on 178
however i can't !!. more a mixture of measured quess work and hope ..

management did state getting the options in the money was an objective, and then they got the pr machine into gear...

i'm about waist deep into Nzo, have converted options.
also up to my knees in Prc..

keep in mind nothing, oil, gas, coal, commodities, property values, shares, will go up for
ever.

in this weather another log on the fire,a big glass of a deep gutsy red, and all is well.

cheers
-- thks digger, will consider settlement overnight

Hi Clips,
Hope you can organise a party at Diggers.

Keep in mind that Oil, gas, and coal keep going up in my lifetime. As for the rest, a lot of them will go down.


Looking forward to the party.

[Chippie]

Has anyone else piicked up on what i see happening on the 6 Oclock news lately.

The media is IMHO sick of oil price rises and are trying to down play what is happening.Before the WTI crude price on Bloomberg was the same price reported on news.Now news is always a few dollars less. Currently Bloomberg has WTI at 142 yet news has it at 139-40. Also to further my point on TV1 tonight the business report had all down shares listed and no up.NZO should have been recorded as the only rise on the top 50 today. It seems to me as if they are trying to be nice to the hard pressed focks out there that in former good times would not interest themselves in oil stocks.
If other think the same we should put in a complaint as it is there job to report it as it is.They haven't.

TV3 had NZO but no PRC, I find the TV3 Business news better than TV1 (not saying that it is great, only better). I also noticed that they did quote oil at $142

[COLIN]

Has anyone else piicked up on what i see happening on the 6 Oclock news lately.

The media is IMHO sick of oil price rises and are trying to down play what is happening.Before the WTI crude price on Bloomberg was the same price reported on news.Now news is always a few dollars less. Currently Bloomberg has WTI at 142 yet news has it at 139-40. Also to further my point on TV1 tonight the business report had all down shares listed and no up.NZO should have been recorded as the only rise on the top 50 today. It seems to me as if they are trying to be nice to the hard pressed focks out there that in former good times would not interest themselves in oil stocks.
If other think the same we should put in a complaint as it is there job to report it as it is.They haven't.
Digger: I was also annoyed by the fact that they only showed selected "down" shares, with no mention of NZO or PRC which were surely more worthy of mention than PPL (I think they mentioned that) given the volumes traded today and the continued rising trend in those two energy stocks. I think they were just trying to sensationalise the fall in the market overall. Like the property sector, the media love to exaggerate, e.g. TEL might go up say 10c on a particular day and the media talk about the price "soaring"!

[QOH]

Just checked bank account, and cheque has gone through. All is well with the world tonight, even the finance companies I'm invested with have paid interest tonight... hmm except for St Lawrence.
I also was disappointed that NZO and PRC's share rise wasn't mentioned on TV1 news.

[CAM]

Has anyone else piicked up on what i see happening on the 6 Oclock news lately.

The media is IMHO sick of oil price rises and are trying to down play what is happening.Before the WTI crude price on Bloomberg was the same price reported on news.Now news is always a few dollars less. Currently Bloomberg has WTI at 142 yet news has it at 139-40. Also to further my point on TV1 tonight the business report had all down shares listed and no up.NZO should have been recorded as the only rise on the top 50 today. It seems to me as if they are trying to be nice to the hard pressed focks out there that in former good times would not interest themselves in oil stocks.
If other think the same we should put in a complaint as it is there job to report it as it is.They haven't.


Maybe those in charge havn't got their buy orders filled yet before they start ramping up the publicity :D

[Trent]

Digger: I was also annoyed by the fact that they only showed selected "down" shares, with no mention of NZO or PRC which were surely more worthy of mention than PPL (I think they mentioned that) given the volumes traded today and the continued rising trend in those two energy stocks. I think they were just trying to sensationalise the fall in the market overall. Like the property sector, the media love to exaggerate, e.g. TEL might go up say 10c on a particular day and the media talk about the price "soaring"!

Digger and Colin
I also was annoyed at the failure to mention NZO and PRC - inexplicable. I agree that a complaint is in order.
T

[Chalice]

Digger and Colin
I also was annoyed at the failure to mention NZO and PRC - inexplicable. I agree that a complaint is in order.
T

I sent TVNZ an e-mail last night bemoaning (amoungst other things) their lack of coverage of NZ's resourse stocks, the fact they have 10,000's of interested listeners (shareholders), how important the impact of NZO/PRC is/will be on NZ's BOP and the fact they report on US oil rather than Singapore/Tapis + their general negativity.
No doubt will have no impact.

[trackers]

Tapis @ US$148.78 = NZ$195

x42,500bopd @ 12.5% = NZ$1,037,297 per day for NZO. Looking great

[spook]

TV3 had NZO but no PRC, I find the TV3 Business news better than TV1 (not saying that it is great, only better). I also noticed that they did quote oil at $142

On 91ZM news this morning - oil up $3 a barrel, no mention of NZO up 10c but it's not a business channel :)

When I look at the low traffic volumes on Auckland M-way this morning, there must be a big drop in
petrol sales in last couple of weeks

[The Great Gold Guru]

Anybody got any thoughts on what NZOG management might pay out as a sustainable long term dividend each year ?. I'm budgeting on 5cps minimum for the next few years ... is that too optimistic , or pessimistic.

[OutToLunch]

Does anyone know how NZO holdings on the ASX would be treated by the IRD when it comes to the FDR tax? I bought my holding on the ASX and am wondering if it would be easier in the long run to have the holding transferred to the NZX (I understand this can be done, but don't know how). Any suggestions? (and in case you're wondering why I bought on the ASX -- I thought they were cheaper there, and they were at the time -- but I didn't realise that they went ex-div a week earlier over there than here -- bugger :o).

[777]

https://www-au.computershare.com/Investor/FormsCatalogue.asp

The above url for the Australian area of Computershare has downloadable forms for change from NZ to Aust register but not the other way. If you contacted them I am sure you could get a form to do it.

[the machine]

looks like the oil tanker was still loading come midnight as shipments only increased by approx 100,000 barrles and a shipment is usually 300,000 barrles

Production Performance (since 30 July 2007)
Total production to the end of June 2008: 14.2 million barrels. 13.8 million barrels shipped.
NZOG's


M

[POSSUM THE CAT]

Out To Lunch if they are broker sponsored you have to get broker to do it and they charge like wounded bulls for doing it. It is usually cheaper to sell and rebuy in the NZ market

[Hoop]

Anybody got any thoughts on what NZOG management might pay out as a sustainable long term dividend each year ?. I'm budgeting on 5cps minimum for the next few years ... is that too optimistic , or pessimistic.

Who knows with this lot. NZO management have never been on my Xmas card list.

In my imagination I see a special dividend payment.....mind you, I see flying pigs too

In the meantime I'm a shareholder in for the ride.

[arjay]

Has anyone else piicked up on what i see happening on the 6 Oclock news lately.

The media is IMHO sick of oil price rises and are trying to down play what is happening.Before the WTI crude price on Bloomberg was the same price reported on news.Now news is always a few dollars less. Currently Bloomberg has WTI at 142 yet news has it at 139-40. Also to further my point on TV1 tonight the business report had all down shares listed and no up.NZO should have been recorded as the only rise on the top 50 today. It seems to me as if they are trying to be nice to the hard pressed focks out there that in former good times would not interest themselves in oil stocks.
If other think the same we should put in a complaint as it is there job to report it as it is.They haven't.

Commercial TV and radio stations are there to sell soap. They don't earn revenue from NZO, but they do earn lots of advertising $ from the likes of Telecom, Hallenstines and The Warehouse. Hence, even when it comes to reporting stock movements some brands will clearly get more exposure than others. Best to stick with Radio NZ for a more balanced report.

[Drone]

114m oppies converted and more to come, anyone know when these are able to be traded or is it now?

[777]

114m oppies converted and more to come, anyone know when these are able to be traded or is it now?

I have checked my holding and the options have been converted so figure they can be traded. However I suspect that as cheques have to be cleared then there may be some restriction on them.

[OutToLunch]

Thanks possum and 777 for the replies. :)

[Drone]

Sold down 1/3 of holding now, expecting some weakness next fortnight or so as leveraged types maybe sell-down newly accuired shares. But really don't want to given how well its been going so keeping 2/3s (i.e can't make my mind up what going to happen).

You'd think that any big players would have accuired holdings via the oppies rather than the shares as was cheaper to mop up a holding on the oppies.

What are peoples thoughts for the next couple of weeks from a technical standpoint?

I think most people agree the firm is still super cheap in the medium term even with the options EPS dilution.

[Crypto Crude]

drone-What are peoples thoughts for the next couple of weeks from a technical standpoint

Drone,
Fundamentally NZO is the cheapest stock on the NZX...
It has been since I came to this wonderful place called Sharetrader...
technically, I cant tell you about the technicals...
:)

Theres lots of Anticipated news from NZO....
Questions like...
How/when/and where Is the company going to spend NZOOD, and Tui revenue monies?
will it be an acquisiton?
will it be acerage investment? Special Dividend?
Drilling Wild cat Fund? onshore, offshore?...
...
NZO has so much cash its time to pay dividends---> or preferrably reinvest the money back into further growth of the company... Growth Path is set for years to come regardless...
This is worth $3 per share down the line...
one day perhaps $10 bucks...
All depends on what company pursues...

All the best, hold on...
:cool:
.^sc

[Bixbite]

Sold down 1/3 of holding now, expecting some weakness next fortnight or so as leveraged types maybe sell-down newly accuired shares. But really don't want to given how well its been going so keeping 2/3s (i.e can't make my mind up what going to happen).

You'd think that any big players would have accuired holdings via the oppies rather than the shares as was cheaper to mop up a holding on the oppies.

What are peoples thoughts for the next couple of weeks from a technical standpoint?

I think most people agree the firm is still super cheap in the medium term even with the options EPS dilution.

Drone,

Not sure if you wish to tell us how brainy you are.

Assume 100% Options would be exercised: -
It would add cash ~$0.52 for each NZO share.
31% PRC = ~$0.54

Options + PRC = $1.06
Market share price is $1.86

That means the value from the balance of Tui reserves + cash profit from Tui revenues + Kupe reserves is $0.80

We haven’t yet had the result from Momoho. We haven’t yet seen the first coal.

Cheers

[argonaut]

Shrewdie - perhaps NZO might be a good place to put some funds recently released from the sale of a somewhat languishing high risk ASX/AIM dual listed resource stock?

[Drone]

Drone,

Not sure if you wish to tell us how brainy you are.

Assume 100% Options would be exercised: -
It would add cash ~$0.52 for each NZO share.
31% PRC = ~$0.54

Options + PRC = $1.06
Market share price is $1.86

That means the value from the balance of Tui reserves + cash profit from Tui revenues + Kupe reserves is $0.80

We haven’t yet had the result from Momoho. We haven’t yet seen the first coal.

Cheers


BIXBITE - mate you are right am not that brainy, just a young punter finding my way.

Can't argue with your numbers which is why I am long to the gills in NZO.

But you don't think there is a chance there might be some weakness in the next couple of weeks as $250m odd worth of shares find their way into people's pockets? People that have leveraged up to buy them and now are looking at nice paper profit, the old temeptation to lock in the gain and pay down debt...

Just a chance I think, hope I'm wrong and sanity will prevail and send the share to 250 in short order!

Cheers

[Drone]

ACC now at 5.72% of the ords of 374,470,843 (should go a bit higher maybe 15ish mill still to be issued - and therefore % may drop a little)

[markiemarknz]

By Jonathan Underhill
Tuesday 1st July 2008

New Zealand Oil & Gas is building a war-chest for acquisitions as shareholders take up options and the company benefits from oil flowing from the Tui field.

The company raised about NZ$180 million from the sale of the options, which expired yesterday, with about 84% take-up and more in the mail, said spokesman Chris Roberts. NZOG also has been reaping its 12.5% share of Tui's production, which was 14.2 million barrels in the year ended yesterday, sold at an average US$100 a barrel.

"We do have a considerable war-chest to pursue new investments," Roberts said. "We've been looking very hard for opportunities in the last six or nine months."

The company had assessed specific opportunities in the past 12 months, taking some of them to an advanced stage, without clinching a deal. "There's certainly opportunities out there," Roberts said.

NZOG's market value has grown to about NZ$700 million from about NZ$265 million in January. Shares on issue have increased to 374 million from 262 million then. The stock rose 4.5% to NZ$1.86 today and has climbed about 55% this year.

The Tui oilfield's output helped lift New Zealand's merchandise exports 11% to a record for the month of May. The value of crude oil exports in May 2008 was $241 million, up $142 million from May 2007, according to a Statistics New Zealand report this month.

AWE is the operator of the field and largest participant, with 42.5%. Mitsui E & P Australia Pty has 35% and Pan Pacific Petroleum NL has 10%.

www.businesswire.co.nz

[Sehnsucht888]

I think it was 11% of the options that they declared. A fair while ago thy dropped below the reporting threshhold of heads - if memory serves, so they have increased there postition overall. Or maybe it was 5.44 of the heads, and with the 11% of the options, some head selling having ended up slightly up at 5.72%... Given that more options are still to convert, I assume this could further drop and they could be back on 5.44% or lower...

[the machine]

more press

N.Z. Oil & Gas Got NZ$172 Million From Option Holders (Update2)

By Gavin Evans

July 1 (Bloomberg) -- New Zealand Oil & Gas Ltd., a partner in the country's Tui oil field, said investors have subscribed for about NZ$172 million ($131 million) of shares through an options offer.

The options, which expired yesterday, allowed holders to buy shares in the explorer at NZ$1.50 each. Investors holding 114.6 million options have exercised them, the Wellington-based company said in a statement to the New Zealand stock exchange.

New Zealand Oil & Gas is the best performer in the nation's benchmark NZX 50 index, gaining 61 percent this year as oil set records and Tui produced more than forecast. The company is seeking projects to invest in and last month said limited domestic options may prompt it to consider overseas ventures.

The stock rose 8 cents, or 4.5 percent, to NZ$1.86 at 5 p.m. in Wellington. It has gained 19 percent the past week after options trading ended and Tui's estimated reserves were increased to 50.1 million barrels.

New Zealand Oil & Gas owns 12.5 percent of Tui, the nation's first offshore oil project since 1996. Its other assets include a 15 percent interest in the NZ$1 billion Kupe gas project and a 31 percent stake in Pike River Coal Co.

Pike, developing a coal mine on the west coast of the country's South Island, has doubled in value the past six months as coking coal prices soared. The mine is projected to reach its coal target in August. Its shares fell 10 cents to NZ$2.35.

To contact the reporter on this story: Gavin Evans in Wellington at gavinevans@bloomberg.net

Last Updated: July 1, 2008 01:14 EDT

[COLIN]

By Jonathan Underhill
Tuesday 1st July 2008



NZOG also has been reaping its 12.5% share of Tui's production, which was 14.2 million barrels in the year ended yesterday, sold at an average US$100 a barrel.


www.businesswire.co.nz
So that gives us US$177.5m = somewhere around NZ$230m (depending on your assumptions re the appropriate exchange rates to use. The average price per barrel, quoted by Chris, is also probably a rough figure).
But is NZ$230m somewhere in the ballpark estimates by any of our worthy contributors on this forum?

[spook]

ACC HAVE INCREASED THIER SHARE HOLDING TO JUST OVER 21 MILLION SHARES OR 5.72% OF NZOG compared to 5.44% SO YES THEY DID PLAY A FEW GAMES and did sell down towards the end from over 11% at one stage--- but still biggest declared ----INST--presently;)

Let's not forget the total shares on issue has increased by 114 million, so their % holding would have halved without them buying more shares or converting options

[The BOWMAN]

Let's not forget the total shares on issue has increased by 114 million, so their % holding would have halved without them buying more shares or converting options

Actually a very good point. It is a much larger increase taking that into account.

[the machine]

reading an old report on crown minerals site last night re kupe and it shows hydrocarbon migration from north to south.

how far south is anyones guess, but momoho is south of central field.

sure kupe 5 is further south, but maybe [hopefully] the hydrocarbons did not make it that far in quantity and kupe 5 represents spill oil from the momoho structure.

now that options out of the way it would be nice if nzo could provide a more detailed expectation at momoho - something that they could not do at time of spudding due to the options restrictions.

read on this thread that the drill is testing both sides of a fault, but can't recall anything from nzo in that regards

M

[Nitaa]

Let's not forget the total shares on issue has increased by 114 million, so their % holding would have halved without them buying more shares or converting options
Actually the dilutionary effect is about 1/3.

[duncan macgregor]

Actually the dilutionary effect is about 1/3. What you are really saying NITA is that without the options your NZO share price should have been one third higher. Macdunk

[Chalice]

What you are really saying NITA is that without the options your NZO share price should have been one third higher. Macdunk

Duncan - don't forget the $1.50 consideration for the extra 3rd - they weren't free!

[Chippie]

World economy turns investors from NZ
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/section/3/story.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=10519465
Not great news except for the following 2 extracts

"Skyrocketing oil prices, however, were good news for New Zealand Oil and Gas, which posted a gross return of 11.9 per cent for the month, the best performance among the market's top 50 stocks."

and

"Bucking the trend, the NZX Small Cap Index was up by 4.7 per cent, but this was entirely due to the index's largest stock, Pike River Coal, surging 133 per cent over the period."

[tim23]

Be interesting to see if there are new significant holders post the options.

[Chalice]

Sold down 1/3 of holding now, expecting some weakness next fortnight or so as leveraged types maybe sell-down newly accuired shares. But really don't want to given how well its been going so keeping 2/3s (i.e can't make my mind up what going to happen).

You'd think that any big players would have accuired holdings via the oppies rather than the shares as was cheaper to mop up a holding on the oppies.

What are peoples thoughts for the next couple of weeks from a technical standpoint?

I think most people agree the firm is still super cheap in the medium term even with the options EPS dilution.

Drone, think there is some evidence of the selling down happening today, would expect it to be a relatively short term situation before NZO get on the escalator again. If you didn't have to sell why would you?

[Drone]

Drone, think there is some evidence of the selling down happening today, would expect it to be a relatively short term situation before NZO get on the escalator again. If you didn't have to sell why would you?

Let's hope mate, something to keep an eye on anyway. Looks like quite a few retail punters off-loading in the last couple of hours, has just been chipping down on smallish volume. I agree after a week or so we should be clear of any "abnormal" market conditions due to option conversion and subsequent shakeout.

Cheers

[trackers]

Drone, think there is some evidence of the selling down happening today, would expect it to be a relatively short term situation before NZO get on the escalator again. If you didn't have to sell why would you?

Picked up some more today, think its holding up surprisingly well.

[Chalice]

Picked up some more today, think its holding up surprisingly well.

Well done Trackers - have done the same, should be north of 2.00 soon and well north if/when Momoho comes in. Would like to think the drill announcement tommorrow will remind those selling down that they have been a bit premature. In addition there is Colin's estimate of 200-230mil from Tui (can't see why it won't be close to that) & paper profit from PRC to be reported soon - onwards & upwards - and at 1.87 its still up on yesterday!

[Drone]

Hmm 80/82 - 6% off the high of the day

lets hope tommorow is better......

[fish]

Hmm 80/82 - 6% off the high of the day

lets hope tommorow is better......

Very strong buying at beginning of everyday this week then a few profit takers /desperate sellers at end day.
Best now to ignore the sp and sit on your hands rather than trying to trade-you can hurt yourself jumping off an escalator .
Many made the mistake of selling prc-never sell a share thats going up

[Casa del Energia]

Every trading day is surprising. Can't see why anyone would sell now - - can anyone make sense of that? Anyhow - could all those people who are planning to sell tomorrow please reconsider - - you are not helping in my efforts to make a small fortune in a hurry - Thankyou.

By the way - has anyone got access/copies of INFORMATIVE geological maps of the Kupe/Momoho area? The PR maps on the NZO site don't reveal much.

[tim23]

Bit of profit taking reasonably appealing I guess in an average market

[Nitaa]

Todays trading in light of recent events is more of a non event. Some profit takers and during the day the buyers lacked depth.

Also i cannot blame invesntors who are extremely highly levereaged to resposition themselves. A bit like taking insurance.

Medium to long term investors should not be dettered in the slightest about daily movements of the sp. whether up or down doesnt matter. it only matters when you come to sell.

More interesting times over the next few months...looking forward to it

[BigBob]

Every trading day is surprising. Can't see why anyone would sell now - - can anyone make sense of that? .

well, I ended up exercising more than planned for and have slightly stretched my finances short term and have to sell down about 8% of my total holding before July 20th... looking for a continuation of the uptrend before then and did not sell today though - I have a loose stop loss in place for the portion I need to sell, but intend to hold on to the balance...

[tim23]

Why would you need a stop/loss when clearly you would be making money!?

[BigBob]

Why would you need a stop/loss when clearly you would be making money!?

hmmm.... the generally accepted term for a sell order triggered at a specified level below the market price is a "stop/loss order".... but you are correct.... strictly speaking it is not a loss... so let's call it a "minimise profit erosion order"... doesn't quite roll of the tongue though, does it...?

[the machine]

Every trading day is surprising. Can't see why anyone would sell now - - can anyone make sense of that? Anyhow - could all those people who are planning to sell tomorrow please reconsider - - you are not helping in my efforts to make a small fortune in a hurry - Thankyou.

By the way - has anyone got access/copies of INFORMATIVE geological maps of the Kupe/Momoho area? The PR maps on the NZO site don't reveal much.


go digging in the crown minerals website

M

[Nitaa]

NZ's oil output soars in past year
5:00AM Thursday July 03, 2008
By Grant Bradley


New Zealand's self-sufficiency in oil more than doubled last year, due to the offshore Tui field coming on stream and greater production from the Pohokura project in Taranaki.

In 2006 the country was 14 per cent self-sufficient but this climbed to 32 per cent last year, still down from a peak of 55 per cent in 1997, according to Ministry of Economic Development figures.

Around the time of the 1974 oil shock the country was just 4 per cent self-sufficient, calculated as domestic oil production divided by total domestic consumption.

Use of petroleum products climbed by 1 per cent last year. Petrol and diesel dominate fuel consumption, accounting for 44 per cent and 42 per cent respectively

The ministry report says oil and condensate reserves jumped 53 per cent last year. Estimates of remaining reserves in the country's producing oil fields rose to 148.3 million barrels at January 1, from 97.1 million barrels a year earlier.

Tui, which started production a year ago, accounted for about 35 million barrels of the increase. Its total reserves have since been upgraded to 50.1 million barrels by operator Australian Worldwide Exploration.

Remaining in the offshore Pohokura field, owned by Shell, OMV, and Wellington's Todd Energy, increased 30 per cent to 55.9 million barrels. Liquid reserves in the partners' Maui field rose 9 per cent to 24.1 million barrels.

Gas reserves increased 10 per cent to 2.03 trillion cu ft, driven by a 16 per cent gain at Pohokura to 908 billion cu ft and a 13 per cent improvement at Maui to 439 billion cu ft.

The figures show that total energy used by consumers grew by 1 per cent between 2006 and 2007.

Since 1990 the economy has outstripped that rate of energy use.

This represents an improvement of energy efficiency of almost 15 per cent.

In the same period energy use per person grew by 10 per cent. New Zealanders' annual energy demand was equivalent to approximately 3400 litres of petrol per person last year.

Average electricity prices increased by 3.2 per cent after price falls the previous year.

Generation from non-renewable energy sources (fossil fuels and waste heat) was 1 per cent less in 2007 than in 2006.

While coal-fired generation was sharply down, gas was up by 21.9 per cent.

Wind energy, which accounted for 2.2 per cent of total electricity generation, almost doubled from 2006.

Total wind capacity increased by 88 per cent to 322MW by the end of 2007.

New Zealand Wind Energy Association chief executive Fraser Clark said greater wind generation would help to keep electricity prices down as the cost of thermal generation rose.

"The cost of wind generation is not affected by the increasing price of fossil fuels or the cost of carbon emissions."

[Corporate]

NZO is fascinating. I wonder what is going to happen today - hoping for it to climb back over $1.90 where it rightfully should be. However, I suspect we may see a bit more of a sell down.

[Drone]

US crude above $144 after the NY close, so tapis should head up to maybe $148ish.

A key event for us NOGers is the next OCR review on 24 July. There is a chance that the RB may cut rates, the money markets are pricing in a chance (not a likelihood) of this. If they do the kiwi will drop sharply and likely head sub 70c in short order which as you all know would significantly improve our NZD denominated earnings. In anycase September will see rate cuts and decline in the kiwi. The economic bad news is relentless, the next to really jump will be the unemployment numbers, when that happens watch the housing market really suffer as people are forced to take market prices when their circumstances change.

All this will affect monetary policy and therefore the exchange rates and therefore NZOs profit as we are an exporter..

Cheers

[Lion]

Drone, Tapis was $148 yesterday - if it follows WTI it could well top $150 today.

Yes, amazing, what will petrol at the pump be if $NZ drops below 70??!
What will NZO sp be?? Both $3 maybe? Yowza!!

[Drone]

Drone, Tapis was $148 yesterday - if it follows WTI it could well top $150 today.

Yes, amazing, what will petrol at the pump be if $NZ drops below 70??!
What will NZO sp be?? Both $3 maybe? Yowza!!


Ah true ok, anyone got a good live tapis quote website? Only one I use is a day or so lag.. google isn't showing up much. Thanks.

[Phaedrus]

Why would you need a stop/loss when clearly you would be making money!?
Tim, BigBob doesn't tell us how or where he set his stop, but I wonder if he was in fact referring to a trailing stop. As I'm sure you know, this is a stop that is not fixed, but keeps on automatically ratcheting up (never falling) as the shareprice rises. Trailing stops are designed to protect profits by triggering a Sell signal when a stock drops from its peak by more than a preset percentage. I would suggest that a suitable value trailing stop for the current NZO uptrend would be 8.5%, as plotted below in red. Any value lower than this would have had you flicked out way back in March and higher values, while less likely to be hit, would mean giving more back to the market when they are eventually triggered.

Notice how the On Balance Volume indicator is moving in synch with the shareprice - ie there are no divergences. These are formed when OBV and shareprice move in different directions and give insight into underlying market strength or weakness. A rising OBV being bullish and a falling OBV bearish. In other words, there is nothing in the OBV to impugn the current uptrend.

Up until last month we had only a tentative trendline for NZO, but see how price action has reversed again exactly at the trendline, so we now have a confirmed trendline in place. A break below this would give a sell signal. You can see here that current price action is well above any of the indicators shown here.

http://h1.ripway.com/Phaedrus/NZO73.gif

[777]

NZO
03/07/2008
MINE

REL: 0927 HRS New Zealand Oil and Gas Limited

MINE: NZO: Momoho Exploration Well Disclosure Notice

New Zealand Oil & Gas Ltd (NZOG) advises that as at 2.00pm on 2 July, the
following operations have been completed on Momoho 1:
- The 17 inch section has been drilled to a final depth of 1,845m MDRT
(measured depth below rotary table).
- The 13-3/8 inch casing has been run and cemented as programmed.
- The Blow-Out Preventers (BOPs) are currently being pressure tested.

Over the coming week, the rig is expected to drill the 12-1/4 inch section
and run the 9-5/8 inch casing.

Momoho is an exploration well 6 kms southeast of the Kupe central field, off
the coast of South Taranaki. Drilling began on 13 June 2008 and progress to
date is summarised as follows:

Well section: 36inch 22inch 17inch 12 1/4inch
8-1/2inch
Planned Depth: 170.5m 550m 1,830m 2,855m 3,142.5m
Actual Depth*: 180m 561m 1,845m
*Depths are cumulative and show total well depth measured below the rotary
table (MDRT).

The well is expected to take approximately 51 days to drill.

Partners in the Kupe permit PML38146 are:
Origin Energy Limited (through its subsidiary Origin
Energy Resources (Kupe) Limited)
50% (Operator)
Genesis Energy (through wholly owned subsidiaries)
31%
New Zealand Oil & Gas Limited (through wholly owned subsidiaries)
15%
Mitsui E&P Australia Pty Ltd
4%

[BigBob]

Tim, BigBob doesn't tell us how or where he set his stop, but I wonder if he was in fact referring to a trailing stop.

Hi Phaedrus, yes that is the correct term (sorry Tim)... I am trailing slightly looser than what you suggest and I am also taking other TA signals into account (not that I'm that good at TA)... for what it's worth my stop is slightly below the confirmed trendline and on the other side of last week's gap...

[Lion]

anyone got a good live tapis quote website?

I use

http://www.upstreamonline.com/market_data/?id=markets_oil

Aaah,the forecaster's curse! $NZ up and NZO down since I suggested the opposite a few hours ago. I promise not to do that again.

[Lion]

But Tapis did hit $151

[COLIN]

But Tapis did hit $151
$151.78 now.

The question is: how long will it take to shake out all the weak NZO holders, e.g. those who have mortgaged everything - perhaps even including the wife - to load up? My guess is that the bulk of this sort of selling will taper off over the next two weeks.
People are talking about the weak world economic outlook driving down the demand for oil; well, have they seen the latest official forecast for the Chinese GDP growth rate? Yes, its down from last year's 11.2% to.............9.8%. (I'm going from memory here, but check it out).
And you can be quite satisfied that, in arriving at this figure, China has taken due cognisance of the expected fall-off in demand from the USA, etc., for Chinese exports.
Imagine what a projected growth rate of anything like 9.8% for NZ would do for Alan Bollard's blood pressure!

[Bilo]

$151.78 now.

Imagine what a projected growth rate of anything like 9.8% for NZ would do for Alan Bollard's blood pressure!

Alan Bollard doesn't have blood and if we had growth of 9% he and his mate Cullen could kill that as well.

[Dr_Who]

If coal prices continues to fall over night, PRC sp may weaken further which will have an impact on NZO sp. May even see NZO back down to $1.50.

Everyone is on the edge out there. A very nervous market indeed.

[777]

If coal prices continues to fall over night, PRC sp may weaken further which will have an impact on NZO sp. May even see NZO back down to $1.50.

Everyone is on the edge out there. A very nervous market indeed.


I would say it has already had an effect on NZO's share price.

[Corporate]

so what is everyone doing here with your NZO holdings?

I am sitting on an average price of $1.635. Not loving that it hits 1.91 yesterday and now it's down so low.

Does anyone else have that conflict of knowing it's fundamentally a sound company but not wanting to dip into a loss making position.

[777]

I bought mine for longer than 4 days so am quite relaxed about things.

[duncan macgregor]

so what is everyone doing here with your NZO holdings?

I am sitting on an average price of $1.635. Not loving that it hits 1.91 yesterday and now it's down so low.

Does anyone else have that conflict of knowing it's fundamentally a sound company but not wanting to dip into a loss making position. Fundamentally sound or not a falling tide lowers all ships. Take a look at previous market crashes everything dropped when the panic sets in. The point is do you think the fundametals are stronger than the panic selling?. If you are into TA you might consider selling to buy back at a lower level.
Everything right now is in the lap of the gods its decission time my friend the sp is controled by market sentiment with fundamentals running a distant second. Macdunk

[OutToLunch]

https://www-au.computershare.com/Investor/FormsCatalogue.asp

The above url for the Australian area of Computershare has downloadable forms for change from NZ to Aust register but not the other way. If you contacted them I am sure you could get a form to do it.

Yes that did the trick thanks. Would have posted the form here for others' interest but it's too big -- never mind, Computershare staff were very prompt and helpful. :)

[Drone]

Floor should form soon you would think, everyone remember, oil is at $151 USD.

Lets get real, you don't sell a company that owns that.

Both fear and greed are rampant in the owners this stock it would seem - hence the volatility.

disc - long a lot.

[Corporate]

Floor should form soon you would think, everyone remember, oil is at $151 USD.

Lets get real, you don't sell a company that owns that.

Both fear and greed are rampant in the owners this stock it would seem - hence the volatility.

disc - long a lot.


The temptation to take a small profit and run......it was 8 times larger only yesterday.

[Toddy]

Floor should form soon you would think, everyone remember, oil is at $151 USD.

Lets get real, you don't sell a company that owns that.

Both fear and greed are rampant in the owners this stock it would seem - hence the volatility.

disc - long a lot.

Since when did fundamentals start meaning anything in a bear market.

[Hoop]

Since when did fundamentals start meaning anything in a bear market.

Exactly....

I'm in my hiding place (energy shares) and I smell bear..:eek:

[neopole]

whats the problem?
the smart money is still hoovering up NZO shares.
they might even be helping the price down by dumping small pockets of stock.
the punters, the gamblers, the kitchen sink chuckers are just scrambling.
NZO is and will be in the money permanantly for here on out.
unless poo goes down to $40-50, and if that happens, you have bigger things to worry about.
this sp movement and "betting" is starting to remind me of pokerstars. net

[Drone]

Agreed neopole, hopefully NZO can release their June quarter numbers pretty quickly (should be 31 July at the latest). The market will have to sit up and take notice then when they see that NZO's main problem at the moment is finding a room big enough to store their cash profit.

Until then we may be in for a rollercoaster ride.

[upside_umop]

so what is everyone doing here with your NZO holdings?

I am sitting on an average price of $1.635. Not loving that it hits 1.91 yesterday and now it's down so low.

Does anyone else have that conflict of knowing it's fundamentally a sound company but not wanting to dip into a loss making position.

Its called volatility...stocks dont go up all the time!

Sure it was nice to see i was up a lot more yesterday on every single stock i own, but market weakness finally hit everything...but yes, it does hurt when its such a large drop..i think my whole portfolio is down 10% on what it was 2 days ago..but again, its been like that earlier in the year and is just volatility.

[Awamoa]

Be brave when others are afraid.Its a buying opportunity.

[neopole]

there used to be a time when USA caught a cold the rest of the world sneezed, and in alot of respects that is still true. but when it comes to oil and gas the USA can sneeze all it likes, and china and india will still purchace as much oil as it can get.
NZO produces oil............
this must be one of NZ's only safe havens for capital, the bigboys know this, and use the lack of knowledge of the punters to hoover in the cheap shares of NZO.
oh well...... off to the lotto shop again.

[Bixbite]

The News Out Of U.s.a Is All Bad And Equities Will Tumble Good Stocks All Suffer Nog Included It,s Sticking Out Like Dog Balls. Now Our Neighbour Australia Is All Doom @ Gloom And The Commodity @ Resource Sectors Are Weekening Because So Many Clowns Have Leverage In These Stocks --i Love It;)

It’s good for PPP. It has cash to buy OZ desperate company.

It’s far better for NZO, because it has more cash than PPP. I don’t mind even NZO would buy a carpet company if NZO management team knew how to run it and had the market.

[Naylz]

It is scary watching everything drop but in the last 3 days i sold everything but NZ) and bought more NZO with the profits. So my portfoilio is now 90% NZO. Sure I average 1.65 but I am able to sit this out and no matter what happens in the short term, the fundamentals will win out in the long term. So no panic on my side. We are on to a winner guys. Just hold on don't panic. If it drops much further i will be buying even more.

[friedegg]

well the guys complaining about tv 1 not covering nzo or pike in thier business news your day has arrived,coal prices retreating and nzo and pike shares taking a hit was the headline

[AMR]

Maybe the general public will notice that there's a figure 2 in front of the price, whereas only a few weeks ago there was a 1!

[friedegg]

YOU ARE SO RIGHT THE NOG @ PIKE INVESTORS CAN,T BITCH NOW HEADLINES ON TVI NEWS -- JUST ALL IN RED NOG DOWN 12-PIKE -20-;)
but your a funny buggar,its a bit too blatant that your highlighting the negatives all because you sold a day or so ago and intend to enter lower,do you use these kind of sites to try to influence prices?

[friedegg]

a single investor can sway a share though,ive often wondered whether sites like this are looked at by people in the big world of influence,afterall its the market that decides the price of a company and we are all part of that market

[tim23]

Most holders will be holding thats why they own the stock not to trade it

[digger]

Some weeks ago i posted that i thought the price would not really take off until August.I was sure suprised to see it shout to 1-91 and now it has returned to about where it should be given the heavy committments many holders have. Now i am wondering if the price will be forced down to trigger a lot of stop losses. I exercised all my options but arranged monies through the bank and my house sale as i did not want to get in to the margin skid if it should be triggered,and it can even if the fundementals are excellent in the longer term.This company is becoming big money and the big money boys can and usually play dirty. Some consolidation from 1-91 was in order but it now is looking more like a down plan.Remember ACC played a down plan in the last weeks of options trading so this company is attracting these sorts of tactics.
I will be as always focusing on the developments and holding until one year after kupe is producing.Judgment time is then not this intermidiate stuff.That is where the gold is and expect this company to have a fight on its hands to find the owners. Hold tight we are in for some ups and downs.

[Bixbite]

90% of option had been exercised, only one big brother ACC declared holding a little bit more than 5%. Where have the shares been gone?

Where could you find a similar size of company like this one has about $200M in the bank? (Almost 1/3 of its market share price is cash)

[Casa del Energia]

go digging in the crown minerals website

M

Cheers. Good web site - Would like even more detail but I guess that would be tightly held by the companies (CrisR - don't suppose you could...)

[Casa del Energia]

well, I ended up exercising more than planned for and have slightly stretched my finances short term and have to sell down about 8% of my total holding before July 20th... looking for a continuation of the uptrend before then and did not sell today though - I have a loose stop loss in place for the portion I need to sell, but intend to hold on to the balance...

Yes - I guess my comment was from my own myopic point of view - not leveraged here and no margin calls on me.

Now.. I'm concerned. NZO is fine, and I don't are about my long term holds - Don't even care if the NZX 50 goes below 3000 (or did it today? I've been on the move) BUT -- well, I don't know - the whole world situation feels like it into another major league meltdown. No traffic jams in town anymore - why is oil stil high? And two worlds are going to collide over U235 production in Iran. And is there anyone left with the cash or letters of credit when commodity contracts are called? What is the timing for the coming oil price collapse? (Latest article in the New Scientist accepted).

We live in interesting times.

[the machine]

Cheers. Good web site - Would like even more detail but I guess that would be tightly held by the companies (CrisR - don't suppose you could...)


if you do searches under "kupe 4 south" and "kupe 5 south"
itshould bring up some interesting info.

one bit I liked was that updip is south whichto me looks good for momoho

regards

M

[digger]

well the guys complaining about tv 1 not covering nzo or pike in thier business news your day has arrived,coal prices retreating and nzo and pike shares taking a hit was the headline

I brought the bit up about NZO and PRC topping the percentage lift each day but no mention on the news. With NZO and pRC being 1 and 2 on the preformance rating in the last 6 months you can be sure a fair amount of tall poppie stuff is flying about. It would be a releif to there jealousy to be able to report that these two stocks fell today.I would say to there envious nature that if they were only allowed to report on these two stocks from the point of there last report then both companies went up considerably.

[Nitaa]

duncan.. i cannot beleive i am saying this but for once you are right. In times like this fundamentals go out the window. Nervous nellies with stop losses, highly levered, day traders and wanna be long term investors get a panic attack and they are gone. If nzo gets below $1.50 then margin lenders will hit the panic button only to be mopped up by the astute investor.

I think i said it yesterday or the day before. If you are in it for the medium or longer term then one should not be watching the sp movement on a daily basis (especially if they are influended by such movement). pyscologically they will get sucked in and spat out in bubbles. If it was a house would you sell if you read in the newspaper that the price of your abode dropped 20% in one year or 10% in 1 month? of course not. If you have something that is fundamentally sound then stick to fundamentals. If you are influenced by trading patters etc then forget about fundamentals.

I put nzo bottom at $1.20 at present for nzo. Meaning i have no intention to sell no matter what the oil prices do crash (eg drop 40%) in a month which is possible. That is why i dont care if nzo drops 40 cents tomorrow unless i am going to sell.

Im hoping for oil to correct to about $100 to $120 to stablize world markets which will benefit all (including nzo holders) for the medium term.

go nzo and proud to be a holder.

[Mingeathinaikos]

duncan.. i cannot beleive i am saying this but for once you are right. In times like this fundamentals go out the window. Nervous nellies with stop losses, highly levered, day traders and wanna be long term investors get a panic attack and they are gone. If nzo gets below $1.50 then margin lenders will hit the panic button only to be mopped up by the astute investor.

I think i said it yesterday or the day before. If you are in it for the medium or longer term then one should not be watching the sp movement on a daily basis (especially if they are influended by such movement). pyscologically they will get sucked in and spat out in bubbles. If it was a house would you sell if you read in the newspaper that the price of your abode dropped 20% in one year or 10% in 1 month? of course not. If you have something that is fundamentally sound then stick to fundamentals. If you are influenced by trading patters etc then forget about fundamentals.

I put nzo bottom at $1.20 at present for nzo. Meaning i have no intention to sell no matter what the oil prices do crash (eg drop 40%) in a month which is possible. That is why i dont care if nzo drops 40 cents tomorrow unless i am going to sell.

Im hoping for oil to correct to about $100 to $120 to stablize world markets which will benefit all (including nzo holders) for the medium term.

go nzo and proud to be a holder.


Nita, that avatar of yours causes me problems scanning the website at work!!! People walking past will be wondering! :)

[Nitaa]

Nita, that avatar of yours causes me problems scanning the website at work!!! People walking past will be wondering! :)lol.. Just tell them its nothing too serious at the moment. Also, my wife wonders if i am leading a double life any why i am using her pic. Well thats what she looks like when i have had a couple to drink

[zorba]

.

Where will it all end ??

(And this graph does'nt include the May and June prices up to and above US$140 !!)

http://www.oilnergy.com/hpix/2obrentm.gif

In tears ????

.

[Nitaa]

Zorba. nice graph.. Its very hard to imagine that prices are going to go sideways for the next 12 to 24 months.

[duncan macgregor]

Zorba. nice graph.. Its very hard to imagine that prices are going to go sideways for the next 12 to 24 months. NITA the very worst thing has happened when the price of oil shot up in price. People cant afford to buy it demand drops. Alternative solutions get explored with the likelyhood of a new discovery discovered sooner rather than later. The world economy will take a massive hit leading to a greater chance of conflict. All ships drop in a falling tide as you are now starting to realise.
We are in for a share market crash NZO will drop in share price other companies will go to the wall nothing good will come from the rising price of oil other than disaster. I battened the hatches at the start of this year, stuck my storm sail up and tossed my sea anchor out much to the disgust of the blue eyed brigade. Macdunk

[dsurf]

NITA the very worst thing has happened when the price of oil shot up in price. People cant afford to buy it demand drops. Alternative solutions get explored with the likelyhood of a new discovery discovered sooner rather than later. The world economy will take a massive hit leading to a greater chance of conflict. All ships drop in a falling tide as you are now starting to realise.
We are in for a share market crash NZO will drop in share price other companies will go to the wall nothing good will come from the rising price of oil other than disaster. I battened the hatches at the start of this year, stuck my storm sail up and tossed my sea anchor out much to the disgust of the blue eyed brigade. Macdunk

Macd - this blue eyed brigade member is ecstatic. I told you to buy at $1. I told you at $1.10 your 30 day ma indicator was triggered. Even with the selloff I am up 67% or so - out performing the market by around 100%. Surprisingly I do not give a toss about your anchor. I was also wondering how the Ian Israel potential conflict & the possible loss of 40% of the oil delivered to market, although a fundamental item, is not more relevent than the TA signal of an overbought, over extended oil price chart? I am also picking strong bargain hunting as soon as the short term profit taking from the short term option converters is over.

Also another fundamental I cannot ignore - In August FPA, FPH etc etc will report profits of FA & NZO will report $200m or so. That will be hard even for the analysts to ignore!

Go the blue eyed brigade enjoy your fundamental profits - or maybe consider switching to a manufacturer with a good TA signal?

[AMR]

Hey, TA got me into PRC back when it was in the dollar range ;)

I haven't been in the markets for long, but when something has risen as fast as PRC or the POO, then we get a big increase in volatility. One of these days oil will decline by something like $15 in one session after gaining $30 the previous week. I saw it on the chinese markets, the hang seng, and now we'lre seeing it in coal.

[trackers]

NZO looks back to normal today. Meanwhile:




Oil hits record over US$145


Oil has rushed to record over US$145 a barrel ahead of the US independence Day holiday, extending a rally that has added 50 per cent to prices this year.
Escalating tensions between Israel and Opec nation Iran have pushed prices to fresh peaks over the past two weeks, with further support coming from speculators hedging against inflation and a weakening dollar.
The US oil settled up US$1.72 at US$145.29 a barrel, after earlier hitting an all-time intraday high of $US145.85. London Brent settled at US$146.08, up US$1.82 after reaching an intraday record of $US146.69 a barrel earlier.
"On a long weekend, no one wants to take the risk of being caught short with all the tension between Iran and Israel," James Crandell, analyst at Energy Research in New York.
Iran has threatened to block oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz in the event it is attacked. Speculation has mounted in recent weeks that Israel may be preparing a preemptive strike against Tehran's nuclear programme.
Approximately 40 per cent of the world's seaborne crude oil trade passes through the Strait of Hormuz.
The new crude oil record came just ahead of the Fourth of July holiday weekend, traditionally the peak driving period for motorists in the nation's largest oil consumer.
Oil has risen nearly 13 per cent since the start of June on concerns about Middle East tensions, tight supplies and investors buying crude as a hedge against inflation and the falling value of the dollar.
Crude futures have surged seven-fold since the start of 2002 as supply struggles to keep pace with demand from emerging nations like China. The price spike has caused fuel protests around the globe and hurt demand in consuming nations like the United States.
Saudi Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi reiterated his belief on Thursday that the current rally in oil prices was being propelled by speculators rather than any shortage of crude oil.
Naimi repeated promises that Saudi Arabia would pump more oil if there was demand for it.
Oil refiners in the United States and Asia have said official Saudi prices make it uneconomical to buy more barrels.
US payroll data released Thursday suggested the job market had not deteriorated as much as many investors had feared, helping the dollar recover from a two-month low against the euro hit earlier in the day.
Comments from the head of the European Central Bank that suggested further interest rate increases in Europe could be put on hold also supported the greenback.
Tropical Storm Bertha, which formed on Thursday in the eastern Atlantic Ocean, was not expected to threaten any US oil and gas production facilities in Gulf of Mexico.
Hurricane experts have predicted an above-average number of storms and hurricanes through the US hurricane season, which began June 1 and runs through the end of November.

http://www.stuff.co.nz/4607492a13.html


Upstream is showing the tapis price at US$153.07.



NZ$202 a barrel for NZO


45,000 x 202 = $9,090,000 for JV...



At 12.5% = NZ$1,136,250 per day for NZO (NZ$414,731,250 for NZO p/year at current rates).


Anyone have any idea what NZO's share of the costs would be? Less than $100k a day I'm sure.

[Bilo]

Hey, TA got me into PRC back when it was in the dollar range ;)

I haven't been in the markets for long, but when something has risen as fast as PRC or the POO, then we get a big increase in volatility. One of these days oil will decline by something like $15 in one session after gaining $30 the previous week. I saw it on the chinese markets, the hang seng, and now we'lre seeing it in coal.

My reading of the yesterday's coal market activity was that it only applied to thermal coal - for power station use. Coking coal prices although influeneced by the thermal coal price (i.e. they will always be higher) were not mentioned in market action. The coking coal sale price is largely set by the annual negotiations which have just set it at USD300 a tonne - spot prices have been higher. There is no world shortage of thermal coal expected in the next couple of hundred years - just greeny concern and mining and port capacity.

Coking coal will be in short supply until steel making by traditional means becomes too expensive.

The sharp corrections you mention tend to be temporary unless accompanied by other measures that remove liquidity from all markets. The chinese have raised interest rates and bank deposit rates heaps.

[Lion]

Anyone have any idea what NZO's share of the costs would be? Less than $100k a day I'm sure.

I recall costs being less than $10 a barrel, that's $US I think.

So 45,000 x 12.5% x 10 = $56,250 or about $NZ74k

[Corporate]

I recall costs being less than $10 a barrel, that's $US I think.

So 45,000 x 12.5% x 10 = $56,250 or about $NZ74k

Don't forget tui's probably not producing 45k per day anylonger. More like 42k.

[Crypto Crude]

argonaut-Shrewdie - perhaps NZO might be a good place to put some funds recently released from the sale of a somewhat languishing high risk ASX/AIM dual listed resource stock?

Hey argonaut,
I now understand... Im real proud of you...
re-invest two months before spud...
put those funds into NZO?
perhaps you could, its the most undervalued NZX stock...
This will not be a cash cow... This will be a cash Cow with its whole family...
brothers, sisters and the whole barn yard...
I like the look of CUE... Maari for CUE will perform better than Tui for NZO...-->Much more upside in the CUE SP...
later...
:cool:
.^sc

[Nitaa]

NITA the very worst thing has happened when the price of oil shot up in price. People cant afford to buy it demand drops. Alternative solutions get explored with the likelyhood of a new discovery discovered sooner rather than later. The world economy will take a massive hit leading to a greater chance of conflict. All ships drop in a falling tide as you are now starting to realise.
We are in for a share market crash NZO will drop in share price other companies will go to the wall nothing good will come from the rising price of oil other than disaster. I battened the hatches at the start of this year, stuck my storm sail up and tossed my sea anchor out much to the disgust of the blue eyed brigade. MacdunkDM. Am i mising something here. What you are saying i am tell you first but then you repeat me.

1 of things things is going to happen to oil prices in the short term. continue spike, correction or a crash in oil prices. my comment was reffering to the graph that is is proably less than 5% chance that oil prices are going to trade sideways over the next 3 or 4 months. If if continues to spike the correcotion or crash will be bigger4. Simple.

If you read my posts you will see that for the sake of nzo investores medium to long term and global economy short to medium term then oil prices need to retreat to around the $100 - $120.

the rest of your post is also stating the obvious especially if you were around 25 yrs ago to see petrol prices at 99.9 cents per litre, petrol rationing, cng, lpg and so on.

[zorba]

NZO looks back to normal today. Meanwhile:



http://www.stuff.co.nz/4607492a13.html


Upstream is showing the tapis price at US$153.07.



NZ$202 a barrel for NZO


45,000 x 202 = $9,090,000 for JV...



At 12.5% = NZ$1,136,250 per day for NZO (NZ$414,731,250 for NZO p/year at current rates).


Anyone have any idea what NZO's share of the costs would be? Less than $100k a day I'm sure.

Trackers,

Apart from production costs, think 50% tax+royalty rate on net earnings after production costs subtracted .....

30% due to company tax, plus another 20% petroleum royalty

Z

.

[CAM]

Trackers,

Apart from production costs, think 50% tax+royalty rate on net earnings after production costs subtracted .....

30% due to company tax, plus another 20% petroleum royalty

Z

.


They also have a whole bunch of tax credits if I recall correctly

[trackers]

Trackers,

Apart from production costs, think 50% tax+royalty rate on net earnings after production costs subtracted .....

30% due to company tax, plus another 20% petroleum royalty

Z

.

Tax is a killer, true... But the company tax is on net profit, so we will have to wait and see what they have planned for the war chest (leave it sitting in the bank, book it as profit and pay tax on it doesn't seem the way forward to me!)

[zorba]

MacDunk and Nita,

Agree with both your recent posts.

For stability in the world economy we want oil at US$ 110 - 120 range.

But for the moment I think its going higher -- notice both the MACD and RSI are pointing upwards and open interst is very high.

Mick100, could you give us an update on wether net open interst is short or long ?

.

http://futures.tradingcharts.com/charts/CO88.GIF

.

[bermuda]

Hey argonaut,
I now understand... Im real proud of you...
re-invest two months before spud...
put those funds into NZO?
perhaps you could, its the most undervalued NZX stock...
This will not be a cash cow... This will be a cash Cow with its whole family...
brothers, sisters and the whole barn yard...
I like the look of CUE... Maari for CUE will perform better than Tui for NZO...-->Much more upside in the CUE SP...
later...
:cool:
.^sc

Shrewdy,
Maari is more complicated but will perform okay with good adjacent upside.

But it wont perform better than Tui.

Tui has been outstanding from the start.

[zorba]

MacDunk and Nita,

Agree with both your recent posts.

For stability in the world economy we want oil at US$ 110 - 120 range.

But for the moment I think its going higher -- notice both the MACD and RSI are pointing upwards and open interst is very high.

Mick100, could you give us an update on wether net open interst is short or long ?

.

http://futures.tradingcharts.com/charts/CO88.GIF

.


In case the above figure doesnt display properly, here is the url to the original website:

http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/CO/88

.

[sideline]

Trackers,

Apart from production costs, think 50% tax+royalty rate on net earnings after production costs subtracted .....

30% due to company tax, plus another 20% petroleum royalty

Z

.
Z, are you sure the two are cumulative and not concurrent i.e. does the royalty count towards
the tax liability??

[upside_umop]

Tax is a killer, true... But the company tax is on net profit, so we will have to wait and see what they have planned for the war chest (leave it sitting in the bank, book it as profit and pay tax on it doesn't seem the way forward to me!)

They wont be able to defer the profit for tax purposes if thats what your meaning. Put it in the bank, pay dividends, what ever they do, the profit will be the same, and tax will be the same.

Cam, about tax credits, they are all used up. Had only about $85 million worth if i remember right.

Royalties would certainly be under the 20% of profits rather than 5% of revenue...for every $1 profit before tax it would look like:

$1 - 30% tax = $0.70
$0.70 - 20% royalty = $0.56 after taxes and royalties.

[fish]

Shrewdy,
Maari is more complicated but will perform okay with good adjacent upside.

But it wont perform better than Tui.

Tui has been outstanding from the start.
hi Bermuda
I had hoped to buy more nzo at close trade today but the price is up and it looks as if the desperate sellers willing to give away nzo are drying up .
I still have quite a few cue left-they have gone nowhere since I bought them a few years ago .
Do you consider it would be wise to sell them and get more nzo -or would i be better buying more cue-or even ppp .
90% of my stock investments are in nzo already .
Personally i feel i should buy more nzo as the sp is almost certain to rocket soon

[Oiler]

Shrewdy,
Maari is more complicated but will perform okay with good adjacent upside.

But it wont perform better than Tui.

Tui has been outstanding from the start.

Bermuda / Shrewdy

You are right in saying Tui has been an outstanding start but the best is yet to come ;)

I am going back to the NZO trough on Monday morning to pick up on any price dip there may be because I think this puppy is going to run like hell next week. Momoho has to be near or at paydirt. :D

I am looking for a BIG week next week......... let the good NZO times roll

Oiler

[neopole]

i was about to reply to fish and say that if he sold CUE he should invest in PPP instead of NZO, then oiler posted..... and im wondering which is the better?
i have been thinking of selling NZO and putting the lot on PPP. but NZO does have an absolutely awesome ride ahead what with kupe comming on line next year, and some $400,000,000 in the kitty ....... via the option cash and tui income, and pike and kupe still to add to the cash mountain!
PPP is sitting on a pile too.... but no word about its future allocation.

gosh....... what a dillema.

[tim23]

Duncan - I note you tend to only join the discussion when there are down days, selective posting?

[bermuda]

hi Bermuda
I had hoped to buy more nzo at close trade today but the price is up and it looks as if the desperate sellers willing to give away nzo are drying up .
I still have quite a few cue left-they have gone nowhere since I bought them a few years ago .
Do you consider it would be wise to sell them and get more nzo -or would i be better buying more cue-or even ppp .
90% of my stock investments are in nzo already .
Personally i feel i should buy more nzo as the sp is almost certain to rocket soon

As always DYOR but as you have asked me what I would do I respond as follows.

I would Keep NZO, sell CUE and with the proceeds buy VPEO amd TEXO.( for a bit of fun )

Cue might double over time but the others will get you more leverage and a lot more fun.

Good luck. DYOR.

Look at Oiler's comment re NZO. Looking good.

[digger]

Brian Gaynor has a piecs in todays hearold about the shocker 21% first half year fall.Worst half year since 1990. There were only a few rises in this period. NZO topped the few that increased invalue being the best preformer on the top 50 this half.Note PRC was not in the top 50 in this period.

[Corporate]

Bermuda / Shrewdy

You are right in saying Tui has been an outstanding start but the best is yet to come ;)

I am going back to the NZO trough on Monday morning to pick up on any price dip there may be because I think this puppy is going to run like hell next week. Momoho has to be near or at paydirt. :D

I am looking for a BIG week next week......... let the good NZO times roll

Oiler

Oiler, why do you say the best is yet to come for Tui? I was under the impression that from now on we would see increased water and the amount pulled per day would start to decrease at an increasing rate?


Re - PPP. I still think NZO is a better buy.

[Corporate]

i was about to reply to fish and say that if he sold CUE he should invest in PPP instead of NZO, then oiler posted..... and im wondering which is the better?
i have been thinking of selling NZO and putting the lot on PPP. but NZO does have an absolutely awesome ride ahead what with kupe comming on line next year, and some $400,000,000 in the kitty ....... via the option cash and tui income, and pike and kupe still to add to the cash mountain!
PPP is sitting on a pile too.... but no word about its future allocation.

gosh....... what a dillema.

I wonder how much is actually in the kitty? I would have thought more like $300 Million? What ever the case Tui+Pike+Cash+Kupe+Momoho Potential, makes the market cap look silly.

[Wilkins_Micawber]

Oiler, why do you say the best is yet to come for Tui? I was under the impression that from now on we would see increased water and the amount pulled per day would start to decrease at an increasing rate?

For a long time, the NZO web page has said (and still says) "The 'water cut' - the amount of water being recovered with the oil - has been significantly less than predicted, allowing a high daily production rate to continue." followed by something like ... the water cut is expected to increase significantly in coming months.

However, this last statement has been removed since the time of the latest reserves upgrade. I would have thought that this could potentially be quite significant, especially for this years earnings from TUI - effectively the low year for earnings between TUI start up and Kupe coming on stream.

I would like to see some sort of explanation from NZO about the reason for the change of position and the effect on expected production from TUI, esp over the coming year.

[gulf]

are we still waiting on a tui upgrade ?

[Mick100]

Mick100, could you give us an update on wether net open interst is short or long ?

.



.

Zorba, it was a short week in the US this week
COT report won't be out until early next week (tuesday NZ time)

[digger]

are we still waiting on a tui upgrade ?

We have just had two very recently in the last 6 weeks but yes we are still waiting for a TUI upgrade,as will be the case for years to come.The constant "better than expected" has not been fully factored in the the SP and into general public thinking.Only time and with time the results of continued production rates once again exceeding expected and revised figures that again have to be revised up will finally bring home just how good TUI is. Remember amokura and Pateke have the same water oil level so are the same field,although the JVers are calling them seperate.Production through more time will once again call into question as to where all this extra oil is coming from,compared to the origional model.
It will be interesting for those of you that have a long horison of how we will see this in say 5 years time when most of the expected oil flows turn into historical facts.The fields are just a lot bigger than we are now modeling them.

[Crypto Crude]

shrewd-I like the look of CUE... Maari for CUE will perform better than Tui for NZO...-->Much more upside in the CUE SP...



bermuda-
Maari is more complicated but will perform okay with good adjacent upside.

But it wont perform better than Tui.

Tui has been outstanding from the start.

Cue might double over time but the others will get you more leverage and a lot more fun.


Bermuda,
What Im saying is that CUE's rerate for Maari will be bigger in SP % terms than NZO's TUI...
I say this because CUE is only 23c, its market cap is alot lower, and CUE is ramping up off a much lower market cap compared to what NZO was...
I agree Maari wont perform like Tui...
CUE is just a little fish, a tadpole...
CUE will go through a ramp up process as wells come online with first production anticipated for 3rd quarter THIS YEAR, full field production 1st quarter 09... Reserves have 100% upside plus...
...
CUE will get its chance for re-rate just like NZO did... and it will be doing it with Oil prices 50% higher...
CUE have massive leverage, this ZEUS well is perhaps The most exciting Offshore Well thie year... mega TCF... lots of leverage with Exploration drilling and the same story as NZO with multiple developing projects which provide the backbone to growth over the coming years...
This stock could some day be trading at a PE of close to 1....
Im looking to get back in....
CUE has big leverage, (free carried most exciting well of the year- Zeus, BPT carry aswell), it has low downside and big up...
may not perform like some of these other beauties, but is protected...
A good portfolio settler...

NZO and those cronies held up the ensoc 107 drilling rig 5 months..
Im Talking to people who think they have missed this CSG for good...
this has only just begun...
I will post CUE from now on, on that thread...
thankyou...
:cool:
.^sc

[da puntzda]

Chaps

The big question is though what is NZO going to do with the $300 milllion? Presumably management have been planning what to do if the options were in the money for sometime and are now activating the plan.

If required they could also raise even more cash by selling part of PRC.

Do any learned posters have thoughts as to what they think the plan may be?

Appreciate your insights as along with future cash flows and borrowing ability they are sitting on a substantial war chest.

[COLIN]

Chaps

The big question is though what is NZO going to do with the $300 milllion? Presumably management have been planning what to do if the options were in the money for sometime and are now activating the plan.

If required they could also raise even more cash by selling part of PRC.

Do any learned posters have thoughts as to what they think the plan may be?

Appreciate your insights as along with future cash flows and borrowing ability they are sitting on a substantial war chest.

I think if you read back over the various pages of posts you will find plenty of references to this issue. In particular, read what Salisbury (CEO) said recently about their forward strategies (as distinct from what many posters might speculate on, or prefer to see).

[Lion]

Well, da puntzda, management have said a bit about their intentions of what to do with all this money. Some here (digger, was it?) think they may not know how to spend it wisely. But as I recall, DS has said they won't spend it just because it's there - they will be careful. Let's hope that is the case. Anyway, it's a good sort of problem to have, isn't it?

I've said before, and still reckon, that PPP might be worth looking at. Especially if (as digger says, again!) Amokura and Pateke are one field and Tui has a lot more to give.

On a different subject . . . Forbar has just been fined $30,000 and an employee $15,000 for failure to act on 'unusual' client orders.

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/section/3/story.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=10520048

Now, was that the case, in 2006-07 where there was manipulation of the NZOG shareprice?? Someone was off-loading (bet they regret it now!) but trying to get the price up at the end of the day

[zorba]

Lion,

I remember those NZO share price manouvres late in the day at closing time ..... pity we dont know if the ForBar rorting was related to NZO shares.

NZX still a Wild West of a stock market !!

On the Canadian Exchanges every transaction, both buy and sell side, can be traced back to the originating brokers on a daily basis.

Why cant NZX introduce that here ??

Z

.

[Chalice]

We have just had two very recently in the last 6 weeks but yes we are still waiting for a TUI upgrade,as will be the case for years to come.The constant "better than expected" has not been fully factored in the the SP and into general public thinking.Only time and with time the results of continued production rates once again exceeding expected and revised figures that again have to be revised up will finally bring home just how good TUI is. Remember amokura and Pateke have the same water oil level so are the same field,although the JVers are calling them seperate.Production through more time will once again call into question as to where all this extra oil is coming from,compared to the origional model.
It will be interesting for those of you that have a long horison of how we will see this in say 5 years time when most of the expected oil flows turn into historical facts.The fields are just a lot bigger than we are now modeling them.

Quite probable as they are a lot closer to each other than to Kupe eh Digger......good observation mate...

[Oiler]

Oiler, why do you say the best is yet to come for Tui? I was under the impression that from now on we would see increased water and the amount pulled per day would start to decrease at an increasing rate?


Re - PPP. I still think NZO is a better buy.

shephejame

I was referring to NZO and in particular Kupe and the Momoho drill. :D

We should see some good :cool: news from NZO early next week. I am back for more NZO on Monday. ;);)

Oiler

[Corporate]

shephejame

I was referring to NZO and in particular Kupe and the Momoho drill. :D

We should see some good :cool: news from NZO early next week. I am back for more NZO on Monday. ;);)

Oiler

All good Oiler. Are you referring to news on Momoho?

I can't wait to read the annual report - wonder when it will come out.

[Casa del Energia]

if you do searches under "kupe 4 south" and "kupe 5 south"
itshould bring up some interesting info.

one bit I liked was that updip is south whichto me looks good for momoho

regards

M

Found it- excellent stuff. Where mohomo 1 is being drilled is on the top of an anticline in the structure - I didn't realise this. You might have a point about KS 5 hopefully being spill due to southward migration. The site actually contains a mass of data- I just didn't see it at first. Also found the page with the catalogue of the survey shot data - massive list. Found KERRY3D but not KUPE3D - also the nutbar who developed the site just gives the directory path to the shot jpegs - but not the context. … a work in prograss.

[the machine]

Found it- excellent stuff. Where mohomo 1 is being drilled is on the top of an anticline in the structure - I didn't realise this. You might have a point about KS 5 hopefully being spill due to southward migration. The site actually contains a mass of data- I just didn't see it at first. Also found the page with the catalogue of the survey shot data - massive list. Found KERRY3D but not KUPE3D - also the nutbar who developed the site just gives the directory path to the shot jpegs - but not the context. … a work in prograss.


momoho is supposed to be testing both sides of a fault incase "compartmentised" , thats why 51 days on a dry hole basis.

my guess is will reach interesting depth from about july 15 and assuming hydrocarbons then some coring as they drill deeper. kupe 4 south had about 4 cores i think.
1 core = 2 days.

again, assuming find hydrocarbons then of course the drill time will be longer.

M

[Chalice]

Posted by tricha on PRC forum - rather relevant...

By Charlie Aitken

PORTFOLIO POINT: Oil prices won’t be dropping any time soon. Supply growth cannot keep pace with increasing demand.

The oil price has now put on $US100 a barrel since I first read the talk of an "oil price bubble" forming around $US40 back in 2004. As the price continues to move upwards, the number of "bubble" articles in the press and from analysts gets larger by the day. The whole world is attempting to be the hero who calls the "top" of the oil price, but the problem is they have been trying for the last $US100.

The question you should be asking is this: What if the oil price is not a bubble? What if the trading short positions in oil are actually larger than the long positions? I have been reading all I can on the global oil and gas markets in recent months and nothing I have read in multiple industry journals and company presentations suggests to me anything other than the oil price going to $US170 in the medium term.

Even if you don't believe my view on oil and think the oil price is $US20 overpriced from a near-term perspective, you are still talking about $US120. That is still well above consensus analysts' forecasts. It is also way above the long-term prices the market is prepared to use for valuations.

You often get some of your best ideas from the most obscure places. The latest edition of National Geographic magazine arrived on my desk last week. There is an excellent piece on the supply-side limits of the global oil industry. The first chart below tells me why the oil price is not going back to $US60–70 anytime soon. The fact is supply-side growth is declining and simply cannot keep up with the ongoing demand growth for oil.





In recent times, with the exception of some of the enormous Petrobras discoveries in deep water off the coast of Brazil (Tupi), I cannot remember reading about any enormous oil discoveries anywhere in the world. Even when a big elephant like Tupi is discovered it is in very deep water and more than 300 kilometres from the coast. It will require very costly and complex new technologies to get the oil out to the market. These new and expensive technologies only further increase the cost of production of oil, in my view, as the little guys cannot afford the huge cost of these sorts of projects.

To put it simply, it's hard to see how production growth can keep up with ongoing demand growth, which in my mind equals one thing: the oil price will go significantly higher. In recent weeks much has been made of the Saudis’ move to raise production levels but remember the Saudis have been steadily increasing production the whole way up from $US35 a barrel and it hasn’t helped the price settle down.

Saudi Arabia's King Abdullah told oil consumers on Tuesday, July 1, that they should get used to high prices and not blame the country for the spike in the price of crude. Al-Siyassah newspaper reported him as saying: "Consumer countries have to adapt to the prices and the mechanisms of the market."

The volume of global oil discovered has steadily decreased since the 1960s despite the oil industry’s technical advances over that period. Most of the big, easily discovered oil fields have been located and the oil majors are now heading into amazing new parts of the world, such as the Arctic Circle, to look for oil. Remember, the Tupi discovery off Brazil is the largest find in more than seven years, yet its estimated eight billion barrels of oil is less than 7% of the 120 billion barrels of the legendary Ghawar field in Saudi Arabia, which was discovered all the way back in 1948. The lack of mega fields being discovered means oil companies need to produce around seven million barrels of oil a day just to maintain steady output, and multiple millions more to keep up with demand growth of 1.5% a year.






National oil companies

People also forget how much oil is produced by national oil companies. Everyone seems to think that much of the world's oil comes from the super majors such as BP, Exxon, and Shell, when in reality less than 40% of the world’s oil comes from those types of companies. The majority – about 60% – comes from the national oil companies and they control about 70% of the global oil reserves.

The problem is that for so many years when crude was below $US15 a barrel, these national oil companies did not spend enough to modernise or grow their production; the return on investment was so low there was no incentive. Here we are after 20 years of underinvestment in oil production from many of those national oil companies and there are production hiccups almost every day with old equipment simply not being able to handle running flat chat in an attempt to keep up with demand. (WorleyParsons is clearly going to have work in hand for decades from these national oil companies that are now trying to pump billions of dollars into modernising ageing plants).


China: short oil and unwelcome to buy producers

The one thing China just doesn't seem to be able to find is its own oil. It even had problems trying to buy its way into the global oil production market, as shown when the US knocked back CNOOC's bid to takeover Unocal in June 2005 for $US18.5 billion. When you look at the chart below from the International Energy Agency you can see why China is just going to become a bigger and bigger importer of oil as their economy continues to develop. As much as we talk about the intensity of metal use and data such as car ownership per capita, and how those going up in China are huge for global steel and commodities demand, the latter stage of that cycle means simply Chinese moving from bicycles to cars and the flow-on effects for oil demand are enormous.






Populist policies are NOT the answer

The thing I find most amusing is politicians putting "windfall" taxes on the big oil companies. In my mind this will just further raise the cost of exploration and production of oil and I cannot see how that will do anything to lower the oil price; if anything it will have the opposite effect. We have seen people ranging from presidential candidates in the US to Kevin Rudd to local government all talking about increasing taxes on oil companies and I honestly think they have no idea what they are talking about.

It seemed ironic that Australia's Resources Minister, Martin Ferguson, was at the big Saudi oil conference the other weekend to try and push for more production after recently pushing up taxes on condensate for Australian oil and gas producers in the budget. Work it out, Martin: you can't have it both ways.


Peak oil, Peaking oil or Peking oil?

Not many chief executives of the major oil and gas companies around the world like to talk about "peak oil" because it's such a politically sensitive issue. But it's interesting to see in recent months the chief executives of some very large companies like French giant Total, US giant Conoco and even Shell talking about how global oil production will peak at about 100 million barrels a day and most think that 100 million is an optimistic number. If that is the peak number, then global oil demand will outstrip supply before 2020 and we are just going to have to live to deal with higher oil prices, significantly higher oil prices.






In "real" terms, oil isn't expensive

I always like the quotes from Peter Barker-Homek, the boss of the Abu Dhabi National Energy Company (TAQA). He was talking about how everyone is obsessed with the price of oil and says what a disaster it is, yet, in inflation adjusted terms, the price of oil has hardly moved.

When you look at the inflation-adjusted prices over a 30-year view of simple products such as a loaf of bread, a carton of milk or the like, oil has hardly moved. In inflation-adjusted terms, crude oil was almost $US20 a barrel in the late 1960s before the oil shock of the mid-1970s led to a spike. In my view, it’s hardly as though the oil price has been on some monumental price spike since the 1970s; if anything it’s playing catchup. If you buy oil and pay for it in anything other than US dollars the price is really not much higher for you in inflation adjusted terms.





I think the energy stocks – both large and small cap –are about to go for another strong run over the next six to 12 months, as well as over the longer term. In my view, a bubble forms when everybody is universally bullish on something and there is no way that could be said of crude oil. If anything I am seeing universal bearishness. The "peak oil" believers are like members of a secret sect who don't dare air their views in public, but it is looking more and more as though they will be proved right. Also, a recent survey confirmed that Australian fund managers are the most bearish ever on the energy sector.

I retain a very strong overweight in the energy space. Woodside and Santos are the clear picks at the large cap end and I think a lot of local funds are looking at Santos from a backwards looking perspective, thinking it was a boring old Adelaide-based company selling cheap gas to the eastern states plus they had an ownership cap that made them takeover proof.


Santos: don't look backwards, this is an LNG growth stock

Well how times change. The ownership cap comes off in November and Santos is now an LNG growth company. If you believe in oil prices going higher then LNG pricing is going a lot higher as well. I continue to hear multiple examples of new LNG contracts being signed at LNG pricing parity (oil price divided by six). Therefore, with the growth in LNG production that Santos has planned over coming years (north of 10 million tonnes a year of LNG production), I think at $19.94 Santos is a true growth stock and will trade well north of $30 by year’s end. Rather than getting a discounted price for their gas from local customers, it will now get global pricing via these LNG markets. This is not boring old Santos any more; this is Santos the growth stock and potential takeover target.

Clearly BHP’s petroleum division is going to be printing money and it has solid production growth coming online right now. BHP is also a beneficiary of the move towards LNG pricing parity via its interests in the North-West Shelf and other areas. The cash flows coming into BHP headquarters from the oil and gas division will be enormous and further add to the cash hoard of the company. That cash hoard will find its way back to shareholders in the form of dividend growth. Currently BHP produces about 116 million barrels of oil equivalent and we have that growing to more than 150 million by 2010. Clearly, volume growth alongside pricing growth offers huge upside for BHP. Key in long-term oil prices of $US100 a barrel and the model spits out a valuation of more than $52 billion for the petroleum division alone. As I have written numerous times before, Petroleum is the sleeping giant that has been awoken at BHP.

It is also worth considering the growing index weight of “energy” within the benchmark ASX200 index. Did you know that Woodside Petroleum now had a higher index weight than Woolworths, Wesfarmers and Westfield Group? I don't know a single investor who claims to be "overweight" Woodside.

[Bilo]

We have just had two very recently in the last 6 weeks but yes we are still waiting for a TUI upgrade,as will be the case for years to come.The constant "better than expected" has not been fully factored in the the SP and into general public thinking.Only time and with time the results of continued production rates once again exceeding expected and revised figures that again have to be revised up will finally bring home just how good TUI is. Remember amokura and Pateke have the same water oil level so are the same field,although the JVers are calling them seperate.Production through more time will once again call into question as to where all this extra oil is coming from,compared to the origional model.
It will be interesting for those of you that have a long horison of how we will see this in say 5 years time when most of the expected oil flows turn into historical facts.The fields are just a lot bigger than we are now modeling them.

Hi Digger et als, I considered that the most important issue for NZO with Tui was not necessarily an incremental increase in reserves BUT an update to expected production rates and hence cash flows over the near term. Most importantly for NZO, the period up to production from Kupe.

The company has been amazingly silent on this. We had been led to expect a sharp dip in earnings next financial year as Tui watered out and Kupe wasn't on stream. That dip must be becoming shallower by the day....significantly so....deserving of a revised statement to the NZX....IMO.

[Xerof]

Bilo,

The other salient factor for cashflow going forward re Tui, is the investigation being undertaken to increase the capacity of the FPSO from 120k to 150k per day. On the current reserves estimate of 50.1m barrels, this means extraction of this amount is advanced by 7 years to 2013 instead of 2020. This won't kick in until 2010 though, so still expect a dip in cashflow from Tui for 2009.

Add to this the fact they have extended the contract on the FPSO out a further 5 years, and you'd have to say they are quietly confident on adding to reserves, from either existing or nearby or both.

[trackers]

momoho is supposed to be testing both sides of a fault incase "compartmentised" , thats why 51 days on a dry hole basis.

my guess is will reach interesting depth from about july 15 and assuming hydrocarbons then some coring as they drill deeper. kupe 4 south had about 4 cores i think.
1 core = 2 days.

again, assuming find hydrocarbons then of course the drill time will be longer.

M

Thx for that Machine, very interesting! :)

[digger]

Hi Digger et als, I considered that the most important issue for NZO with Tui was not necessarily an incremental increase in reserves BUT an update to expected production rates and hence cash flows over the near term. Most importantly for NZO, the period up to production from Kupe.

The company has been amazingly silent on this. We had been led to expect a sharp dip in earnings next financial year as Tui watered out and Kupe wasn't on stream. That dip must be becoming shallower by the day....significantly so....deserving of a revised statement to the NZX....IMO.

Agree totally Bilo.In fact i have harped on about this before but not recently.The AGM is about 3 months away so by then we can look forward to some solid improvements in this area. If TUI is still above 42,000 or even 40,000 by then,then something in the figures will have to give big time. That is what i expect will happen.So no real income dip between TUI and Kupe.

[zorba]

Bilo,

The other salient factor for cashflow going forward re Tui, is the investigation being undertaken to increase the capacity of the FPSO from 120k to 150k per day. On the current reserves estimate of 50.1m barrels, this means extraction of this amount is advanced by 7 years to 2013 instead of 2020. This won't kick in until 2010 though, so still expect a dip in cashflow from Tui for 2009.

Add to this the fact they have extended the contract on the FPSO out a further 5 years, and you'd have to say they are quietly confident on adding to reserves, from either existing or nearby or both.

Xerof,

If the FPSO can lift capacity to 150K liquids in the near term, this will produce an immediate lift in barrels of oil produced, and this will have an immediate effect on profitability.

Max liquids that can be handled is currently 120k, and this has been reached with oil dropping from 48-50,000 barrels to about approx 42,000 barrels or less.

So if max liquids can be lifted to 150K, then could see daily oil flow stay above 40,000k, even maybe return to near 50,000 barrels ......... but once max liquids reaches 150K then oil flow will fall off again.

In the meantime if FPSO can be modified to handle 150k liquids then this should be great for increased near term cash flows which is positive for discounted cash flow valuations etc.

Z

[Xerof]

Z,

As I said, this won't kick in till 2010

X

[Casa del Energia]

momoho is supposed to be testing both sides of a fault incase "compartmentised" , thats why 51 days on a dry hole basis.

my guess is will reach interesting depth from about july 15 and assuming hydrocarbons then some coring as they drill deeper. kupe 4 south had about 4 cores i think.
1 core = 2 days.

again, assuming find hydrocarbons then of course the drill time will be longer.

M


Good stuff. Thanks. I remember reading somewhere 'a complex structure' - I guess they really meant it.

[digger]

Good stuff. Thanks. I remember reading somewhere 'a complex structure' - I guess they really meant it.


The one thing i do not like the sound of is FAULT. To me it brings up a crack in the structure that lets all the oil or gas escape over millions of years.As you my have guessed i do not have a clue of how the JV's expect hydrocarbans to be there when a FAULT is also present,but they do. Naturally i hope there believe is correct,and my underlieing fear baseless.By end of next week we might be getting some hints.

[fish]

The one thing i do not like the sound of is FAULT. To me it brings up a crack in the structure that lets all the oil or gas escape over millions of years.As you my have guessed i do not have a clue of how the JV's expect hydrocarbans to be there when a FAULT is also present,but they do. Naturally i hope there believe is correct,and my underlieing fear baseless.By end of next week we might be getting some hints.

sounds like the gas hasnt leaked out

Company Announcements




New Zealand Oil and Gas Limited - Announcements




NZO
07/07/2008
MINE

REL: 1612 HRS New Zealand Oil and Gas Limited

MINE: NZO: Momoho Exploration Well Disclosure Notice

New Zealand Oil & Gas Ltd (NZOG) advises that as at 7.30 am this morning the
exploration well Momoho-1 had reached a depth of 2898m and the drill crew was
preparing to pull out of hole prior to running 9 5/8 inch casing.

The well encountered good gas shows upon penetration of the primary Farewell
Formation reservoir target at 2896m.

Although the presence of gas shows is encouraging, it is not possible to
comment on their commercial significance until the well has drilled through
the entire reservoir and logs are acquired over this section.

Momoho is an exploration well 6 kms southeast of the Kupe central field, off
the coast of South Taranaki. Drilling began on 13 June 2008.

[trackers]

Oh, HELL yes... Great news

[Drone]

Good news, reading between the lines you would think they would be careful about making this statement:

"Although the presence of gas shows is encouraging"

without them being pretty happy with the results!

Market has not reacted much though..(yet)

[bermuda]

Oh, HELL yes
Oh yes trackers,
Time to buy some more!!!

They didnt build that pipeline to take an extra 3 times the volume for nothing!

Good luck Noggers, especially the one's that held post option conversion.

[Bilo]

Oh yes trackers,
Time to buy some more!!!


Nice to see some serious buying, 300k in one order. Unfortunately at 15:50 and the announcement was at 16:12. I feel sorry for those people who had their sell orders filled - stinks actually.

[trackers]

Oh yes trackers,
Time to buy some more!!!

They didnt build that pipeline to take an extra 3 times the volume for nothing!

Good luck Noggers, especially the one's that held post option conversion.

At this price, and with extra gas to be produced from Momoho I am in the process of doing just that.

Now this may be me dreaming, but would we have expected them to reach the reservoir by now? The latest graphical chart would suggest to me that it was nowhere near it - Of course I then wonder if the reservoir is larger than originally expected?

Good call re: the pipeline Bermuda, you're onto it

[bermuda]

Nice to see some serious buying, 300k in one order. Unfortunately at 15:50 and the announcement was at 16:12. I feel sorry for those people who had their sell orders filled - stinks actually.

But why would you sell knowing the extra capacity of the pipeline.??? Obviously the sellers didnt think it through.

[Dr_Who]

NZO should issue another option for the punters. Maybe a $1.90 Dec 2011?

[Drone]

NZO should issue another option for the punters. Maybe a $1.90 Dec 2011?



I'm not sure they need the cash!!

Think they are going to have a hard time finding economic places to invest what they have at the moment..

[Chalice]

I'm not sure they need the cash!!

Think they are going to have a hard time finding economic places to invest what they have at the moment..

I think Dr Who may have been refering to the fact that the shareprice performance (or lack of) means that $1.90 options may be in the money in a couple of years.

[Casa del Energia]

The one thing i do not like the sound of is FAULT. To me it brings up a crack in the structure that lets all the oil or gas escape over millions of years.As you my have guessed i do not have a clue of how the JV's expect hydrocarbans to be there when a FAULT is also present,but they do. Naturally i hope there believe is correct,and my underlieing fear baseless.By end of next week we might be getting some hints.

(Saw the drilling announcement - Wahoo, no probelmo). Anyway faults can be 'helpful' by offsetting the gas/oil bearing sandstone with a nonporous shale or whatever - unless you have a shatter zone (Wellington is full of shatter zones - and folks here have actually built houses over them, which seems a bit silly to me - - but at least they won't get oil bubbling up in the garden!) but then at depth - rock behaves more like plasticine (over geoligical time) so at 3,000 metres - maybe it's ok. Actually, come to think of it - PRC is drilling through a shatter zone at the Hawera fault - and they expect gas - so maybe you are right to shudder at the 'F' word.

[fish]

have just bought more nzo-thanks to margin lending and instant funds
SP hasnt moved since the announcement =in fact seems to be increased selling pressure
Well one day the market will wake up to how good a share nzo is-in the meantime its a real steal

[blockhead]

"good shows of gas" eh ?

Easy to be positive about that announcement as we just ease into the target zones, long way to go yet of course.

I guess there will be a flare off going on at the rig, mmmn hope Sue Kedgeley et al can't see it, then again if they could see it we end up with a good bit of nog publicity.

Blockhead likes the sound of this `

[zorba]

.

Quote:

"The well encountered good gas shows upon penetration of the primary Farewell
Formation reservoir target at 2896m."

Excellent news ..... and Momoho-1 is being drilled into the top of anticline .... heres hoping the gas shows (to be confirmed by electric logs) will continue downwards through the anticlinal section for 10s, or dare I say 100s, more meters of gas and ending up with hopefully an oil layer at the bottom !!

Gas floats on oil, which floats on water !!

The crucial questions will be what are the depths to the Gas - Oil Contact (GOC) and the Oil - Water Contact (OWC).

If the Momoho structure has recieved hydrocarbons like the Kupe Central Field Area, which has an oil layer below the gas, then we can expect the Momoho-1 drill to also encounter an oil layer. In support of this is the Kupe South-5 well which is just 1.2km to the south-east of Momoho-1 and KS-5 flowed 2300 bopd when it was drilled back in the late 80s.

The deeper the gas and oil water contact numbers the better, the thicker will be the gas and oil accumulations !!

Z

.

[Taijon]

Anyone study the latest Director interest notices, released after the NZ market closed? Several directors have increased their interest through the exercise of options. Not large numbers of options held and subsequently exercised by them however.

Radfords disclosure notice is interesting. It relates to his indirect holding interests. Some options were allowed to lapse, others were sold for 2 cents. Last week a super fund in which he has an indirect interest sold NZO shares. Is this a bit of a worry? He may not have had any influence over this fund.

The momoho announcement today has had virtually no impact on the share price - a bit surprising but perhaps current shareholders are too stretched having exercised options, and potential new holders are waiting for a more definitive announcement.

Fish, I would be careful about getting too highly leveraged.

[tim23]

If it was good news the market didn't react mind you it was a poor day again so understandable?